The Podcast of the Lotus Eaters - The Great Tory Replacement

00:00:00.000 Hi folks, welcome to another one of these political chats that Dan and I have.

00:00:03.380 Instead of talking about the Labour Party this time, we're going to be talking about reform.

00:00:07.800 That's not because they've hit Whatcom yet.

00:00:09.760 No, no, no.

00:00:10.720 No, it's still in freefall.

00:00:12.180 They are in a bit of a dip, and they're doing very weird things.

00:00:16.660 And everyone's looking around saying, well, that was a bit unexpected, Nigel.

00:00:21.880 What was this for?

00:00:23.620 But before we begin, Islander 5 is currently on sale.

00:00:27.460 It is the best issue we have ever done.

00:00:30.000 And it is also the fastest selling issue we've ever done.

00:00:32.620 Half of the stock has been sold in the first week.

00:00:35.580 It's not going to last the sort of month, month and a half we were going to sell it for, so get it while you can.

00:00:40.840 Anyway, right, let's go on to some polling data, shall we?

00:00:46.680 So, Politico's poll of polls only goes up to January the 8th.

00:00:50.900 So it's about a week out of date.

00:00:53.200 And everything looks fairly healthy on here.

00:00:54.980 Look, this is good numbers for Nigel.

00:00:56.920 So if you're looking at the polls a week out of date, you're thinking, well, everything's fine.

00:01:01.660 I don't know, you know, I've been through a couple of little dips, but they're nothing major.

00:01:05.020 And I'm about 25%.

00:01:06.520 Well, there's plenty of fresh air between reform and everyone else.

00:01:09.000 Yeah, exactly.

00:01:09.460 More than 10 points.

00:01:10.580 You know, more than 10 points in the polls.

00:01:12.480 But if you go to different polling trackers that are slightly more updated, I mean, the YouGov one goes up to the 12th of January.

00:01:22.200 So when we're recording this, what's the date today?

00:01:24.380 It's the 15th.

00:01:24.900 So this was only a couple of days ago.

00:01:26.800 You'll notice that actually they've been taking a dip there.

00:01:30.480 And the polling average is down to 24%.

00:01:32.560 That's a lot thinner, isn't it?

00:01:34.800 It is.

00:01:35.500 And so by looking at one poll of polls, you could feel yourself in quite a comfortable position and maybe you've got a bit of room to mess around in.

00:01:45.540 But in another, you're not.

00:01:47.140 I mean, a 4% difference between reform and the Tories.

00:01:51.280 Well, I mean, that's a couple of news cycles away from going the other way.

00:01:54.100 Yeah.

00:01:54.800 I can't believe the Tories.

00:01:56.280 The Tories in second place.

00:01:57.780 Well, yeah, where's Labour?

00:02:01.400 I suppose the key difference with this one is that they all have, because the problem with these polls, right, is that everything from second to fifth place is so close that you only had to need 1% or 2% onto each everybody in that second place boundary.

00:02:19.460 And all of a sudden you've eaten 10 points.

00:02:21.500 Yes.

00:02:21.780 Or 8 points.

00:02:22.240 So the reason I couldn't see Labour on there is because Labour and Tories are neck and neck on about 20%, 19%.

00:02:27.960 And for us, only 5 points ahead, despite the fact, of course, and we've labelled this point ad nauseum, Starmer is the least popular Prime Minister since records began.

00:02:40.340 And also doing, I mean, a genius level attack on the British people on a daily basis. 0.85

00:02:47.820 Yeah, we're just going to call you all far-right Nazis because you don't like children or can be murdered. 0.99

00:02:52.120 We're going to take away bloody jury trials and we're going to stamp a barcode on your head. 0.99

00:02:57.400 And it's just that every day.

00:02:59.060 You suspend the winter fuel payments in the middle of winter and things like that.

00:03:02.880 Yeah, and a fifth of the British population is still like, yep, sounds good to me. 0.99

00:03:06.620 Well, they work for the NHS.

00:03:07.880 Well, there was that, yeah.

00:03:08.580 So, but the point is, only, you know, only a quarter of people are thinking about joining, voting reform at this point.

00:03:15.180 And that's a bit weird because, like you say, it's an unprecedented assault on the British public by their own government, by what was an unpopular government start with.

00:03:26.200 It wasn't a government that came in a huge amount of goodwill.

00:03:28.460 And it was burned up very, very quickly.

00:03:31.160 And so, how is Nigel fumbling the bag on this?

00:03:34.500 I mean, the reason why reform looks good is because you're comparing it to Labour Party and the Conservative Party.

00:03:43.520 If you were to review it on its own merits, it's a very different picture.

00:03:48.360 It's not the dissident right-wing party I would choose, no.

00:03:52.140 If it even is that in the first place.

00:03:55.060 Yeah, I mean, don't get me wrong, I'm probably going to have to vote for them.

00:03:58.760 Like, I just don't see any other options, because, I mean, at least it's not Labour or Conservatives.

00:04:04.000 But, hold that thought there, because we'll come back to that.

00:04:09.080 Because, for some reason this week, and nobody saw this coming, and it's very difficult to explain why they've done this.

00:04:17.800 But they've decided to take on Nadeem Zahawi.

00:04:21.180 Now, this was just a very, very peculiar choice.

00:04:25.920 Because, of course, Nadeem Zahawi was a former Conservative Party chair.

00:04:29.800 He is himself an immigrant from Iraq.

00:04:31.920 He had his tax scandal in July.

00:04:34.640 Is he a first-generation immigrant from Iraq?

00:04:36.720 Yeah, yeah, he came over when he was 11.

00:04:38.420 Right.

00:04:39.500 And he had a tax scandal back in 2022.

00:04:44.360 And that's the reason he got refused peerage by the Conservative Party.

00:04:49.080 Ah.

00:04:50.200 So, he's got a kind of slight disgrace attached to his name.

00:04:54.680 Well, and also, we should point out, he's one of the founders of YouGov.

00:04:58.240 He is one of the founders of YouGov.

00:05:01.400 He has had quite a long parliamentary career, to be honest.

00:05:04.080 He was the COVID-19's vaccine minister, in which he was an insane pro-vaccine, pro-lockdown, pro-vaccine passport.

00:05:12.580 I remember clearly.

00:05:13.420 Pro-vaccinating children. 0.70

00:05:15.040 I mean, it was only a few years ago.

00:05:17.260 So, he...

00:05:18.340 Absolutely not for giving him in any way whatsoever, and not until the day I die, will I? 0.93

00:05:22.220 Yeah, absolutely bonkers.

00:05:24.000 And the thing is, well, the reform membership and voter base is on the vaccine-skeptic side, right?

00:05:34.200 They kind of naturally self-select for people who do not trust the system,

00:05:38.220 and view Nigel Farage as, at least outside of the consensus between Labour and Tories.

00:05:43.500 So, it's disproportionately that reform members and voters are against this kind of level of state control.

00:05:52.540 And the question persists with Nigel Farage, is he also like his supporters, that he likes to be outside the system, or does he just want to join it?

00:06:00.540 Well, it's very clear that he just wants to join it.

00:06:02.380 Yeah.

00:06:02.720 Very clear.

00:06:03.760 He was also the Chancellor of the Exchequer.

00:06:05.560 He was in the 2022 Conservative Party leadership elections.

00:06:11.040 I mean, to be fair, he was Chancellor for about a week or something like that, whatever it was.

00:06:14.980 Yeah, yeah, it wasn't very long.

00:06:16.740 It was under trust, wasn't it?

00:06:19.180 Was it?

00:06:19.700 No, no, that was quasi-quarting.

00:06:21.620 Yes.

00:06:21.920 Sorry, yeah, I think it was under Boris.

00:06:24.540 But the point is, he's one of Boris's cabinet members.

00:06:29.920 Funny how that keeps happening.

00:06:31.260 A lot of Boris people tend to...

00:06:32.720 Yeah.

00:06:34.880 It's really difficult to understand why Farage wants anyone who is associated with Boris.

00:06:40.640 Because during this time, of course, we were subjected to the Boris wave, where net migration was reaching nearly a million a year.

00:06:47.860 Well, I mean, the question is not so much, why does he want any of them?

00:06:50.660 Why is he trying to complete the set?

00:06:53.420 That genuinely is the question.

00:06:55.680 I just don't understand why, as a right-wing party, you would want this chap.

00:07:03.500 I mean, it's hard to imagine that the Conservatives want this chap, right?

00:07:07.940 Like, as a Conservative Party, he would feel like a noose around your neck.

00:07:14.120 He would feel like an albatross.

00:07:15.800 Because it's like, okay, but this guy did X, Y, Z.

00:07:19.880 I hated X, Y, Z.

00:07:21.200 Yes.

00:07:21.380 And why would I want to vote for that party?

00:07:23.840 Well, I did try and turn that around the other day.

00:07:26.000 I asked a question on Twitter to see if I could find any intelligent responses.

00:07:29.300 Not that I was able to provide one myself.

00:07:31.260 And I just framed the question that let's assume reform needs a number of people who understand how government works from the inside.

00:07:39.500 Because one of the biggest problems that reform is going to have is navigating around the civil service.

00:07:44.520 And actually, I've been doing some thinking, which is outside the scope of this,

00:07:47.300 is you probably need to start viewing these systems in a completely different mechanism.

00:07:52.660 And I'll come back to that at some future point.

00:07:55.040 But let's say you just need a number of people who understand the system.

00:07:59.840 Well, which ones do you take?

00:08:01.560 Because as soon as you start asking it from the positive point of view of which ones would you actually want to take,

00:08:06.680 it gets really difficult.

00:08:08.200 It really does.

00:08:11.040 And moreover, like, who is this appealing to, right?

00:08:19.600 Because, I mean, people are like, you know, I remember like a year ago making a video now saying,

00:08:24.680 no, shouldn't you have like a cabinet in waiting around you so people can look at them and go,

00:08:29.240 oh, yeah, very competent people.

00:08:30.760 Can't wait until they're in government.

00:08:31.580 And what percentage of the population, or in any capacity, the voters, the insiders, whoever, were thinking,

00:08:43.140 well, I'm a bit unsure about Nigel, but if he just gets Nadim Zahawi, then I'll be frustrated. 0.84

00:08:48.900 Yes.

00:08:51.400 What question is Naheem Zahawi the answer?

00:08:56.260 Exactly.

00:08:56.900 And, I mean, he lost his seat in 2024.

00:08:58.940 He didn't challenge it, but it was clear that under Rishi Sunak...

00:09:01.660 He would have gotten it anyway.

00:09:02.540 Exactly.

00:09:03.040 You know, the 250 Conservative MPs getting metaphorically...

00:09:06.940 Was he Richmond, this one?

00:09:09.160 I can't remember which one he was now, actually.

00:09:12.240 No, I'm pretty sure.

00:09:13.720 Was he Richmond?

00:09:14.100 No, Stratford-upon-Ate.

00:09:15.060 Stratford, okay.

00:09:16.760 But the point is, it was clear that under Rishi Sunak, the Conservatives were taking their blood bath,

00:09:22.380 and he was going to be a casualty.

00:09:23.560 So, wisely, he just stepped down and didn't contest it, which, fair enough, a lot of them were like that.

00:09:29.280 But it's just very bizarre, because it's like, okay, but what problem does this solve?

00:09:33.160 Now, as you pointed out, okay, you need people with experience from within.

00:09:36.560 But on one hand, you are like, okay, well, at least he knows how the system works.

00:09:45.560 It's like, yeah, but he also comes with all this baggage.

00:09:49.500 Yes.

00:09:50.000 You know, where all of these negative things are attached to him, and actually, it probably would be better to just start with someone at zero, who's just a blank slate.

00:09:59.460 Yeah, I mean, the danger is you're going to get led around by the civil service and the permanent secretaries.

00:10:06.100 But that happened to this guy as well.

00:10:08.120 Yeah.

00:10:09.260 And the only, I mean, he has, if he had done, like, a Sweller Braveman or Liz Trust, where they'd just come out and start going, no, this was the problem, this was the problem.

00:10:17.680 Like, Sweller Braveman came out and said, look, I'm a lawyer, Rishi, I can tell you all of the laws we need to repeal in order to get this moving.

00:10:24.320 And Rishi was like, no, I'm not going to do anything.

00:10:25.400 I mean, actually, that is the answer to my earlier question.

00:10:27.860 Liz Trust and Sweller Braveman would be smart picks for Nigel.

00:10:32.380 Yeah.

00:10:33.400 But he hasn't gone that way.

00:10:34.960 He's gone for the most hated characters during the period where they locked us in our homes for two years.

00:10:40.480 Yeah, I mean, like, Liz Trust is at least, you know, making the arguments that are correct.

00:10:46.940 And Sweller Braveman has been quite hard on a number of issues, especially right-wing ones, frankly.

00:10:53.440 And so they would be more credible than Naheem Zahawi, who just seems to have slinked off after screwing things up as part of Boris's government.

00:11:04.040 And now seems to be sort of like Jack Sparrowing it, getting off onto the...

00:11:08.920 The bit where the ship is sinking right at the beginning.

00:11:11.200 Yeah, right at the beginning, yeah.

00:11:12.020 And so, anyway, let's carry on, it's just very bizarre.

00:11:15.980 But I think Nigel is telling us what this is about here.

00:11:19.740 He's a successful businessman who reached the top of the tree in politics and knows how to get stuff done.

00:11:24.320 All right, okay.

00:11:25.380 Is that an admission that Nigel doesn't?

00:11:27.380 Well, it kind of sounds that way, doesn't it?

00:11:29.920 But also, I think it's the, he's a successful businessman.

00:11:32.840 A bit.

00:11:33.700 As in, he can make money.

00:11:36.960 And Nigel and Raj are very concerned about money.

00:11:38.740 Yes, that is true, actually.

00:11:41.520 And so, it is hard to understand why, actually.

00:11:45.000 Because you think Nigel Farage, leading the polls with his own party.

00:11:49.420 Where are the donors?

00:11:50.540 There should be loads of donors, right?

00:11:52.920 He shouldn't, Nigel Farage shouldn't have a problem getting donors to reform.

00:11:58.220 Maybe that's just his kink. 0.73

00:12:00.460 You know, businessmen who have made some money or something.

00:12:02.840 Because apparently, I mean, he's complained on a number of occasions that he hasn't made as much money as he should have done.

00:12:07.640 Yeah.

00:12:07.740 I mean, is it that?

00:12:09.980 I mean, he went gooey for, what was it?

00:12:13.940 Zaya?

00:12:14.540 Yeah, Zia Youssef, only 200k, boom, chair of the party. 0.64

00:12:17.540 Yeah.

00:12:17.840 That's cheap.

00:12:19.640 But I don't understand how this is working.

00:12:21.760 Because, like, Nigel has got enough former Tories around him now that he should be able to be like,

00:12:26.960 okay, look, phone up the Tory donors and arrange a dinner with them.

00:12:30.740 And I'm going to go over there and charm them, explain how the Conservative Party is not really a Conservative Party anymore.

00:12:36.120 But I am the real Conservative in the room now.

00:12:39.100 And I'm going to get things done.

00:12:40.480 And you actually want to donate to me because I'm top of the polls.

00:12:43.560 Well, you would think that, you know, the high-level business types would have figured that out for themselves at this point

00:12:48.560 and be beating a path to his door to say, look, you know, these are the things that really matter to me that fit within your agenda.

00:12:55.280 Please prioritise these ones.

00:12:56.740 And these things would really hurt me.

00:12:58.280 So, you know, maybe get around to those when you can a bit later.

00:13:01.200 I mean, they're just standard polling for donation stuff.

00:13:04.960 It is weird, considering how centre-right Nigel Farage is, that he hasn't been inundated with a right-wing businessman saying,

00:13:16.380 I would like a tax cut.

00:13:18.580 I would like you to reduce the amount of tax I paid.

00:13:21.300 And I'm going to pay you, you know, a couple of million, donate to your party a couple of million.

00:13:25.240 And when you win, you slash my taxes.

00:13:29.600 Because that would be a very easy...

00:13:30.920 I mean, I just don't know why they haven't done this, right?

00:13:33.640 Nigel should be swimming in cash at the moment from basically every business magnate in this country

00:13:38.060 because he's running on a platform of lowering taxes.

00:13:41.980 Well, unless the thing that really moves the dial for them is not tax cuts, it's cheap labour inputs.

00:13:48.780 Well, that's a great point.

00:13:51.600 Anyway, so they had a press conference that I watched,

00:13:54.580 and it was...

00:13:55.960 It wasn't terrible, actually.

00:13:59.220 Zahawi is at least a good speaker.

00:14:01.140 Oh, yeah, he's competent in a politician's role.

00:14:03.660 He's a professional politician, yeah.

00:14:04.880 He speaks up...

00:14:06.360 Growing up in Iraq, that's a country that was fundamentally broken. 1.00

00:14:09.300 He doesn't want that to happen in Britain.

00:14:11.020 Too late.

00:14:11.520 Yeah, it's like, my brother in Christ.

00:14:13.460 You're an immigrant, and you're in the government, imported the record number of immigrants.

00:14:20.880 Yes.

00:14:21.460 You are part of the problem there, I'm afraid.

00:14:24.160 You're like, sorry.

00:14:25.740 And 20 minutes in, he talks about his British dream as if we're the American frontier,

00:14:31.260 and we're just here to be exploited by foreigners. 0.70

00:14:35.420 And he just...

00:14:36.880 He's called out by one of the journalists later on.

00:14:39.260 Like, why did you change your heart calling Nigel Farage a racist and a fascist and what?

00:14:44.560 And the Conservatives have put this out, obviously, very quick to attack their own.

00:14:49.700 But as you can see, he's like, you know, I'm not British-born, but I'm as British as you are.

00:14:53.640 Your comments are offensive and racist.

00:14:55.420 It's like, yeah, but in 2015, that was your guy.

00:14:58.100 And then a couple of years after that, he went into government.

00:15:01.580 And now that's an attack line on him.

00:15:05.860 Like, the Conservatives...

00:15:07.320 Like, no one is coming out of this looking good, right?

00:15:10.120 No.

00:15:10.760 The Conservatives attacking their own former MP with his statements when he was one of their MPs,

00:15:16.580 just before he went into government.

00:15:18.520 It's like, yeah.

00:15:19.360 Yeah, I noticed that.

00:15:19.940 The Tory's line has been that reform is filling up with has-been politicians, i.e. are ones.

00:15:28.660 Yeah, Conservatives.

00:15:30.560 And it's like, yeah, that is true, but it's not...

00:15:33.420 That's not a win for you.

00:15:35.880 They have been stepping on this rake repeatedly.

00:15:40.020 And everyone is.

00:15:41.440 Because a defection is actually a kind of gross thing, right?

00:15:44.760 It shows that you're not really committed to the cause.

00:15:48.120 It shows that whatever's happening in your camp has been so mishandled.

00:15:53.300 Is it the Groucho Marx quote?

00:15:55.800 I wouldn't have any club that would have me as a member.

00:15:57.980 No, not that one.

00:15:58.800 The one which is, these are my principles, and if you don't like them, I have other ones.

00:16:03.600 Yes, yeah.

00:16:05.380 That literally is how Nadim is coming across it.

00:16:08.760 Because, of course, there he is as a nice left-wing immigrant saying,

00:16:13.360 your comments are offensive and racist. 0.54

00:16:14.700 I'd be frightened to live in a country run by you.

00:16:16.520 I mean, it's 10 years on, but you were in government.

00:16:21.160 And, you know, I mean, you weren't exactly young and naive when you made these statements.

00:16:26.340 You were, you know, 48.

00:16:29.320 So it's not like you can chalk this up to youthful indiscretion or something.

00:16:34.600 And what changed?

00:16:36.360 It's like, well, you know, I do have other principles.

00:16:38.320 I have right-wing principles if Nigel needs those.

00:16:40.540 And I don't think he does.

00:16:41.600 And so the Conservatives attacking their own former Chancellor of the Treasury or whatever it was he did,

00:16:51.260 it looks terrible.

00:16:53.940 No one is coming out of this looking good.

00:16:56.400 No.

00:16:57.480 No, I mean, I would say more, but I'm kind of lost for words at the failure on all angles of this. 0.96

00:17:04.160 The Tories are saying, look, basically all of our guys are useless politicians, and that's an attack vector. 0.97

00:17:12.680 Reform agree that the Tories are useless and are hiring them en masse. 0.99

00:17:17.080 That's such a story. 0.99

00:17:18.540 You know.

00:17:19.080 I don't understand why they're doing this.

00:17:22.060 And so that sort of like dip in the polls is starting to become more.

00:17:24.560 And the thing is, this happened after the polling, so it wouldn't have shown up in the polling yet.

00:17:31.440 It'll be in the next couple of days that we'll start to see this appear in the polling.

00:17:34.860 So I guess next week we'll revisit this and see how things look.

00:17:38.480 Fraud seems to be testing the assumption that his polling is like a ratchet with a lockhammer on it.

00:17:46.480 That he can only ever turn it up.

00:17:48.640 And once you've gone to reform, you don't go back.

00:17:51.600 Yeah.

00:17:51.760 But, I mean, he, and we say this every one of these streams that we do.

00:17:57.460 I suppose we have to go and vote for reform.

00:18:01.760 But, I mean, there will come a point where it's just like, well, what's the point?

00:18:05.780 What's the point?

00:18:06.300 Yeah, I mean, put a pin in that.

00:18:09.000 We'll come back to that.

00:18:10.120 So the question is, why did Faraz take him?

00:18:12.500 And this is a clip that he, from the press conference, and Wolf here seems to have got it correct.

00:18:18.560 One of the other jobs, of course, that Nadim did for the Conservative Party

00:18:21.360 was to be the chairman of it and to raise a huge amount of money.

00:18:26.460 Ah.

00:18:26.860 And we're hoping he'll do much the same for us.

00:18:28.620 Right.

00:18:31.040 Well, that cuts to the nub of it, doesn't it?

00:18:32.700 It really does.

00:18:33.680 Why did you take this absolute failure and strongly disliked Conservative politician?

00:18:40.140 You can raise a lot of money.

00:18:41.260 Okay.

00:18:41.780 All right.

00:18:42.100 Okay.

00:18:42.420 All my prior confusion is gone.

00:18:44.340 Yeah, I get it now.

00:18:45.040 Yeah, we're fine.

00:18:45.480 But again, doesn't Zia Yusuf raise money?

00:18:49.740 Like, Rupert Lowe was raising money when he was kicked out of reform.

00:18:53.220 Yes.

00:18:53.780 In a meeting that day with donors.

00:18:57.240 And, you know, Rupert Lowe, you know, long-time businessman, very successful.

00:19:01.800 I think I'll kick that guy out.

00:19:03.120 Hmm.

00:19:03.500 I'm not making as much money as I was now.

00:19:05.660 I guess I'll get Nadim Zahawi.

00:19:07.380 It's like, right.

00:19:08.240 There's some...

00:19:09.000 Not only was that insane, but there's a kind of, like, great replacement angle going on here.

00:19:14.680 Yeah.

00:19:16.180 Yes.

00:19:18.060 Stout Englishman Rupert Lowe, replaced with Iraqi first-generation immigrants. 1.00

00:19:23.340 Yeah.

00:19:24.180 Yeah.

00:19:24.660 You know, it's just really weird.

00:19:27.080 Anyway, why Nadim decided to jump ship is because there's no way he's getting back into Parliament,

00:19:33.060 basically, without Nigel Farage.

00:19:35.040 The Conservatives are not going to be winning hundreds of seats in the next election if things carry on.

00:19:40.120 Right, and even if they won a hundred seats, they're probably not going to assign one to him.

00:19:45.280 Yeah.

00:19:45.540 Because the bump of the Tory party is, well, to the left of the Lib Dems.

00:19:50.200 Yes.

00:19:50.580 And also bitter, right?

00:19:52.040 Yes.

00:19:52.820 You know, no, no, we don't want to give this away.

00:19:55.440 And so the only way that Zahawi could get back into Parliament is literally going through Nigel Farage.

00:20:01.920 And he was, as I said, denied a peerage just weeks before defecting to reform because of his tax issues a few years ago.

00:20:10.260 So you can see why this works for him, too.

00:20:13.540 And people were just digging up all sorts of comments that they'd made about each other because, of course, 2020 was not that long ago, right?

00:20:25.280 It was six years ago now, but six years ago for men in their 40s, 50s, and 60s is a drop in the bucket.

00:20:32.540 It feels like five minutes ago to me, and I'm 10 years younger than Farage.

00:20:36.020 Exactly.

00:20:36.640 It feels like just the other day to me, too.

00:20:39.500 But you've got, like, this is just a banger from Farage.

00:20:43.760 I thought Zahawi was one of those people that could replace Boris Johnson, to break us out of the old Etonian mould, to get somebody different, somebody who'd succeeded in private business before politics.

00:20:55.100 I thought Zahawi had principles.

00:20:57.480 Tonight we learn he's just about climbing that greasy pole, as so many of them are.

00:21:04.580 I mean, I think you're right, Nigel.

00:21:07.220 I mean, whatever that is, 2020, Nigel.

00:21:10.500 22.

00:21:11.440 Okay.

00:21:12.280 Well, he is.

00:21:12.840 2022.

00:21:13.200 2022.

00:21:13.940 He is on the money there.

00:21:17.020 And, yep, you've got him.

00:21:18.740 I think you've absolutely nailed him.

00:21:22.000 And now I'm sure that he's not climbing the greasy pole, and he has stuck to his original principles.

00:21:27.540 But, so, let's talk about reform, right?

00:21:30.660 The constitution of reform.

00:21:32.380 Because it is a very persuasive angle of attack from Labour.

00:21:37.160 However, that reform is just the Conservative Party reconstituting itself.

00:21:41.740 Oh yeah, I mean, I've proposed that, basically, Nigel Farage is running the world's most elaborate Conservative Party leadership campaign by leaving the Conservative leader in place and changing literally everybody else.

00:21:53.400 Yeah, because, I mean, like, reform are basically all Tories at this point, right?

00:21:57.860 Yeah.

00:21:58.020 So, Nigel himself was a Conservative.

00:22:00.180 He left in the 90s.

00:22:01.460 Yes, Tice.

00:22:02.180 Yeah.

00:22:03.120 Tice is indeed a former Conservative.

00:22:05.980 He's got articles on, like, you know, Conservative Home and various other things.

00:22:09.580 He was a donor and member of the Tory party for most of his adult life.

00:22:13.500 He wrote a 2008 report for a Conservative think tank in 2017.

00:22:19.060 He wrote more for them, et cetera, et cetera.

00:22:21.860 And, you know, he's just always been, like, in the background as a donor of the Tory party.

00:22:25.700 Not happy with the way they were going, so started reform.

00:22:29.420 And was the funder for it until it started going up in the polls when Nigel Farage was like,

00:22:33.120 oh, wait, we're going to win in Clacton?

00:22:35.060 Right, I'll jump in then, right?

00:22:36.480 And that's why he didn't go to America to support Trump.

00:22:39.560 And people I know that know him say that, for him, reform is just a Tory revenge vehicle.

00:22:46.920 Yes.

00:22:47.240 They wouldn't take him in.

00:22:49.040 Yeah.

00:22:49.360 And so he wants to hurt them.

00:22:51.480 I've, honestly, I've heard similar things about Farage, just in general, actually.

00:22:56.940 Because the Conservatives should have been a hardcore Leave party.

00:23:03.920 And they should have been, like, Nigel Farage shouldn't have had to have been a founding

00:23:07.960 member of UKIP.

00:23:08.900 That should have been the Conservative position.

00:23:10.900 Right.

00:23:11.180 And he's correct on that.

00:23:12.200 Don't get me wrong.

00:23:13.120 You know, leaving the Conservative Party to form UKIP and then campaigning for 40 years

00:23:17.540 or how long it's been to get to the point where now he's destroying the Conservative Party.

00:23:22.540 Like, there is an arc of vengeance against the Tory party.

00:23:25.700 Yeah, I mean, it's interesting.

00:23:26.560 I mean, I had dinner with Farage maybe 15 years ago.

00:23:29.660 And he told a story, which I presume is true, because, I mean, maybe he was making it up.

00:23:34.600 But I presume it's true that when he really started to gain traction in UKIP, he was sat

00:23:41.040 down.

00:23:41.260 I can't remember who it was, but it was one of the Tory grandees, sat him down in some

00:23:45.340 club or dinner or something like that and said, what job would you want to basically

00:23:51.920 make UKIP go away?

00:23:53.400 Yeah.

00:23:53.540 You know, and basically hinting at things around the level of Home Secretary, Foreign

00:23:59.160 Secretary, something like that, which is a major office.

00:24:01.940 Yeah, yeah.

00:24:02.460 So, so...

00:24:03.160 That's a cabinet.

00:24:04.020 Well, yeah.

00:24:04.480 I mean, a senior cabinet as well.

00:24:06.860 So, and I mean, if that is true, that they wanted to get him in, but they didn't, weird.

00:24:14.900 And then Tice presumably was shut out of even that option.

00:24:18.580 Well, this is, this would track as well, because, I mean, this is what they did with Douglas

00:24:22.100 Carswell, and they pinched him from UKIP, who's UKIP's one MP.

00:24:27.160 Did he win in Clacton?

00:24:28.960 Yeah, he was Clacton.

00:24:29.960 Yeah.

00:24:30.300 So Clacton, based Clacton, by the way.

00:24:32.180 Yes.

00:24:32.680 You know, you can see they've been the vanguard of...

00:24:34.960 Yes.

00:24:35.760 Rupert Lois turned Great Yarmouth into a vanguard as well, which is great.

00:24:39.740 Yeah, but yeah.

00:24:40.700 So, but they pinched him as well, because you can see they're just shoring up the right

00:24:45.220 flank, right?

00:24:45.960 Well, we can just, you know, essentially buy them out.

00:24:48.480 Uh, and this was the big mistake that Boris made in 2019, 2020, 2022, um, is not just

00:24:56.560 giving, uh, you know, like Nigel stood down in 2019, not contesting seats that the Conservatives

00:25:01.760 were contesting, so Boris could win his 380 seat majority, right?

00:25:04.560 Yeah.

00:25:04.760 What a blunder.

00:25:05.860 Well, yes, obviously, but you couldn't have known that in advance, because Boris was hardcore,

00:25:10.360 you know, get Brexit done, all that sort of stuff, and everyone was like, okay, well,

00:25:13.140 okay, I'm, you know, maybe he's not going to backstab us, who knows, he's saying all

00:25:18.960 the right things, Nigel was like, okay, well, I'll stop.

00:25:21.160 Well, at the time, I believed Boris.

00:25:22.740 I did too.

00:25:23.420 I voted for him, like, who, you know, you, you had no reason not to think that he wasn't

00:25:28.340 going to do it.

00:25:28.680 Oh, he'd spent a lifetime at that point putting out base Telegraph articles.

00:25:33.060 Yeah, yeah, yeah.

00:25:33.480 You literally had no reason to suspect that he was going to do the dirty on us, apart from

00:25:38.140 the fact he was a Tory politician.

00:25:39.340 Owen Jones totally won me over by going, look at this, he's described gay people as

00:25:43.520 bum boys, and women as letterboxes, and I was like, oh, right, okay, then I'll vote for 1.00

00:25:47.100 him, if you insist, Owen, you know, that's what won me over, and yeah, he backstabbed

00:25:53.120 us to hell, but the mistake that he made was not just essentially conceding that Farage

00:25:58.060 had given him this win, and what they should have done is given Farage a peerage, stuck him

00:26:04.300 in the House of Lords, and you'd never have really heard from him again.

00:26:07.140 He would have been on GB News just, you know, doing his little show, but he would have

00:26:11.400 been in the House of Lords, you know, with his sort of, you know, ho-ho-ho face, like

00:26:15.620 laughing at things, condemning things on the floor, and then that would have been, you

00:26:18.920 know, the government wouldn't have had to have worried about him again.

00:26:21.160 And all you had to do was do that at any point before the polling flipped in Clacton?

00:26:25.820 Yes.

00:26:27.040 Literally, yes.

00:26:27.920 You know, at any point before 2024, you would have been fine, and that would have been neutralized

00:26:33.920 Nigel as an actor, an agent, on the board, and everything would be, like, there wouldn't

00:26:40.380 be a reform party, you know, to do this, or if there was...

00:26:43.800 Well, Tice would be rolling around in the background.

00:26:45.780 It would be Tice on maybe 13%, something like that, you know, he's not...

00:26:50.760 But anyway, so that's the issue there.

00:26:53.640 But then, of course, you've got Lee Anderson, who's, of course, another former Conservative.

00:26:57.620 Lee Anderson is not just a Conservative either.

00:26:59.740 He was, of course, in the Labour Party, but under Corbyn, the Labour Party went bonkers.

00:27:04.060 And so he joined the Conservative Party, and then he joined the Reform Party.

00:27:10.460 He did contest his seat as a Reform MP, so he has got, you know, roots in his own seat,

00:27:16.160 which is good.

00:27:16.680 But, again, someone who I'm not entirely sure I know where they stand, frankly.

00:27:24.160 Oh, he doesn't inspire.

00:27:25.740 No, he's...

00:27:26.340 I don't mind Lee Anderson either, but, like, it's one of those things where it's...

00:27:30.460 This feels like political manoeuvring, right?

00:27:33.700 Yes.

00:27:33.980 Like, Labour's going down, I'm going to jump to the Conservatives.

00:27:36.420 Oh, Conservatives are going down, I'm going to jump to Reform.

00:27:39.260 Right, so it's like, right, okay, fair enough.

00:27:41.140 Anyway, then you've got Sarah Pochin, who, she was a member of the Conservative Party,

00:27:45.420 representing Williston and Rope Ward after gaining a seat in the...

00:27:50.440 This is a councillor, she was, a Conservative councillor.

00:27:53.540 Then she got a bit of a barney in the Conservative Party, left...

00:27:58.320 Oh, no, she was expelled, actually, of the breach of the party rules.

00:28:01.560 She rejoined in 2022 and was involved in the Conservative leadership election,

00:28:06.800 but then she jumped ship in 2025. 0.85

00:28:08.860 What was the thing that she said that almost got her booted out of her form?

00:28:12.180 It was...

00:28:12.740 Oh, God, it was just the other day.

00:28:16.100 Something mildly based.

00:28:18.300 Yeah, yeah, yeah, no, no, it was.

00:28:19.420 It was, I'm sick of seeing mixed-race couples on TV. 1.00

00:28:21.500 That's it.

00:28:22.160 Yeah. 0.91

00:28:22.440 Yeah, which, because, I mean, it is ridiculous.

00:28:26.760 Every couple is a mixed-race couple, whereas in Britain,

00:28:29.540 it's something like 7% of the population are in mixed-race...

00:28:32.900 Oh, I mean...

00:28:34.440 That's not even white to non-white.

00:28:36.360 That's anyone.

00:28:37.440 Oh, no, every advert is a black man and a white woman. 0.76

00:28:40.480 I don't know why.

00:28:41.100 Why can it not be like, I don't know,

00:28:43.100 an Indian woman with a white man, for example?

00:28:45.540 But, no, it has to be a black man and a white woman.

00:28:47.620 Yeah, yeah, you know, progressive messaging.

00:28:51.340 Anyway, then you've got Dame Andrea Jenkins, of course.

00:28:54.860 She was the mayor of Greater Lincolnshire, you know.

00:28:58.100 Is this the one that insisted on doing her failed Eurovision song contest?

00:29:02.880 Entry.

00:29:03.840 She sang the song about insomnia at the...

00:29:08.340 Okay.

00:29:08.880 ...form conference.

00:29:10.800 Weird, but okay.

00:29:11.860 Yeah, it was a bit weird, but anyway, you know,

00:29:14.600 former Conservative, quite important in the party.

00:29:17.560 Then you've got Danny Kruger, who is, of course, the MP for East Wiltshire.

00:29:21.200 He's the one I dislike the least.

00:29:23.940 Yeah, no, I don't mind Kruger,

00:29:26.020 although we were at the Now in England conference where he was speaking

00:29:28.680 and he was the sieve now on the board.

00:29:31.120 So you had Rupert Lowe, Thomas Skinner, Robert Toombs, and Danny Kruger.

00:29:35.540 And Toombs and Kruger were like, oh, yes, anyone knows English.

00:29:39.020 And you could see Lowe and Skinner being like...

00:29:43.040 Yeah.

00:29:43.460 The room just kind of exploded at that point.

00:29:45.640 I mean, yeah.

00:29:46.660 But I do like...

00:29:47.280 Little time for sieve gnats, but at least they're on the journey.

00:29:50.700 Yeah, and he's an intelligent, well-read man,

00:29:53.640 and he's a serious thinker, at least.

00:29:55.880 So, like, he's...

00:29:57.960 If you were going to take...

00:29:59.460 He is actually a Conservative as well, right?

00:30:01.760 Yeah.

00:30:02.020 So if you were going to take Conservatives from the Conservative Party,

00:30:04.620 you could make a good case for Danny Kruger.

00:30:06.500 There's a shortlist and he could well be on it, yeah.

00:30:08.600 Very much so.

00:30:09.680 Much more difficult to take, you know, any of the others, but okay, whatever.

00:30:14.620 Then we've got Nadine Dorries.

00:30:16.200 Again, why you would want Nadine Dorries is just baffling to me.

00:30:21.920 I mean, I read her book, and it is just 100% pro-Boris propaganda.

00:30:25.920 Well, she's just mad. 1.00

00:30:27.080 Yeah.

00:30:27.540 She's just a... 1.00

00:30:28.900 You know, instead of being a mad cat lady, 1.00

00:30:31.740 she just keeps Boris memorabilia.

00:30:34.160 Yeah, yeah, yeah.

00:30:35.360 Yeah.

00:30:36.000 Exactly. 0.67

00:30:36.580 She's a mad Boris fanboy, or fangirl.

00:30:39.440 Yeah.

00:30:39.680 But yeah, she was a Conservative MP,

00:30:41.520 and had been the Secretary of State for Digital Culture and Media and Sports.

00:30:46.560 Oh, yeah.

00:30:46.960 So we've got Nadine doing the bloody vaccines, 0.99

00:30:50.400 and she was doing the online harms bill. 0.81

00:30:52.640 Yeah.

00:30:53.240 I was going to get to that.

00:30:55.540 Yeah.

00:30:55.700 She is the author of the online harms bill.

00:30:58.220 Right.

00:30:58.920 And so when Farage is like,

00:31:00.080 yeah, that online harms bill, that's bad.

00:31:02.020 And Zahawi and Dorries sat there being like,

00:31:05.720 yeah, we were part of the government.

00:31:06.660 I mean, I was the guy who scripted it, who wrote it,

00:31:09.640 and he was part of the government that green-lighted it,

00:31:11.760 and now Starmer's putting it into place and everything.

00:31:13.980 You know when everything on Twitter is getting censored?

00:31:15.700 That's why that is, right?

00:31:16.960 Yeah.

00:31:17.180 It's the online harms bill.

00:31:18.020 It's why when we do segments,

00:31:20.420 and we go to a link, and it's blocked out.

00:31:22.500 Yeah.

00:31:23.260 Yeah.

00:31:23.540 That's that.

00:31:24.560 And she's responsible for that.

00:31:26.280 So it's like, why would you take her?

00:31:29.560 I just don't understand why you'd take her.

00:31:31.480 And of course, she's another one where in 2023,

00:31:33.460 she announced she was standing down,

00:31:35.400 rather than waiting for the next election,

00:31:36.940 because I think she could see the writing on the wall.

00:31:38.980 Again, another Jack Sparrow, just like,

00:31:40.700 yep, this ship's going down.

00:31:41.800 I'm stepping onto the dock.

00:31:43.820 Then you've got Jonathan Gullis,

00:31:45.260 who, again, another Sunak casualty.

00:31:49.840 As you can see, he was the MP for Stockholm Trent North

00:31:51.980 from 2019 to 2024.

00:31:53.720 Why?

00:31:53.940 What happened in 2024, Jonathan?

00:31:56.060 Was it...

00:31:56.720 Oh, a massacre?

00:31:58.520 Right, okay.

00:31:59.100 Yeah, yeah.

00:31:59.460 Bad.

00:31:59.940 That's rough.

00:32:01.380 But yeah, he was deputy chairman of the Conservative Party.

00:32:04.880 He was at the tail end of the Sunak stuff.

00:32:09.660 Like, this is in 2024, he was made deputy chairman.

00:32:13.340 Basically a bit of a non-entity.

00:32:14.980 Yeah, well, I hadn't heard of him, so, yeah.

00:32:16.880 Oh, well, yeah, well, I mean, you know, he's been around.

00:32:19.740 He was the Parliamentary Undersecretary of State for Schools Standards

00:32:22.820 by Liz Truss.

00:32:24.140 So the handful of Tory MPs that I knew prior to the 2024 election,

00:32:29.100 I was saying to them, just jump ship now before the election,

00:32:33.200 because if you do it afterwards,

00:32:35.320 they're going to see it for what it is,

00:32:37.400 and they won't take you.

00:32:38.380 Turns out I was wrong.

00:32:39.960 Yeah, well, like I said,

00:32:41.160 he was the Parliamentary Undersecretary for State

00:32:43.240 for School Standards by Liz Truss in 2022,

00:32:46.260 but was dismissed by Sunak.

00:32:47.440 So he's not anyone of any great note,

00:32:53.080 but he is a former secretary who is involved in government,

00:32:56.660 former conservative who's involved in government,

00:32:59.120 and jumped ship to reform a few months back.

00:33:03.020 Probably never heard of Leanne Neesey,

00:33:05.100 but she was an MP for Great Rimsby,

00:33:07.140 and as you can see...

00:33:08.840 She looks like a policewoman. 0.98

00:33:10.180 She does, but she was a conservative as well, obviously. 0.99

00:33:12.880 She lost her seat in 2024.

00:33:16.780 Again, another Sunak casualty who's jumped ship to reform, 0.98

00:33:20.220 because how else is she going to get back into the Parliament? 0.99

00:33:23.300 It's not going to be via the Conservative Party,

00:33:26.080 because they're going to have about 48 seats in the next election,

00:33:29.100 judging from the polls at the moment.

00:33:31.080 Then you've got Lalia Cunningham, 1.00

00:33:32.660 who's been making waves recently.

00:33:34.840 She's not ever been an MP,

00:33:36.920 but she has stood as a candidate for council elections,

00:33:41.460 London Assembly, and...

00:33:43.580 Ah, that one, yep.

00:33:44.820 Yeah, but...

00:33:45.800 Oh, the Muslim lass. 1.00

00:33:47.800 The Muslim girl, yeah, yeah. 1.00

00:33:48.820 Right, yeah.

00:33:50.460 And in the 2024 election,

00:33:53.160 she was due to be the Conservative candidate in Rotherham,

00:33:55.660 but she withdrew because, quote,

00:33:57.560 a change in circumstances,

00:33:59.800 which meant the party didn't even contest the seat.

00:34:02.260 So she was going to be...

00:34:03.820 So she's not done anything of note, just to be clear.

00:34:06.840 But another Egyptian. 1.00

00:34:08.900 Yes, she's an immigrant, an Egyptian, yeah. 0.97

00:34:11.580 Yeah, it's quite okay.

00:34:12.660 And she defected to reform a couple of months ago.

00:34:15.440 Well, six months ago now.

00:34:17.680 I know, a bit more than that, actually.

00:34:19.020 And then you've got, of course, Zia Yusuf.

00:34:21.000 Yeah.

00:34:23.120 Zia Yusuf was a paid-up member of the Tory party until 2024,

00:34:26.860 which is interesting,

00:34:28.380 because I'm pretty sure he joined reform

00:34:32.900 while he was still a paid-up member,

00:34:34.240 but whatever, it doesn't really matter.

00:34:35.960 Then you've got a few other non-notables,

00:34:37.980 like Laura Ann Jones,

00:34:39.200 who is a Welsh councillor, conservative councillor,

00:34:42.000 jumped to reform.

00:34:45.600 Same difference.

00:34:46.700 Graham Simpson, another councillor from Scotland,

00:34:49.580 jumped to the reform party.

00:34:51.620 And you know what?

00:34:52.020 Even Rupert Lowe

00:34:52.900 was a member of the Conservative Party.

00:34:55.460 But Rupert was well ahead of the curve on this.

00:34:57.760 He was a member of the Conservative Party until 1993.

00:35:03.720 He left the party after getting upset

00:35:06.080 about the Maastricht Treaty,

00:35:07.080 which he said to me...

00:35:07.920 Oh, based.

00:35:08.560 Yeah.

00:35:08.720 Yeah, yeah, no.

00:35:09.220 He genuinely was.

00:35:09.780 That actually was the correct jumping-off point.

00:35:12.760 Well, you know what?

00:35:13.420 Actually, I can give you a quote

00:35:15.280 from his Islander interview on this,

00:35:17.860 because it's actually quite funny.

00:35:19.420 He says,

00:35:21.960 My first real foray into politics

00:35:23.460 came in the Maastricht Treaty.

00:35:25.000 I read through it.

00:35:25.820 Spaghetti.

00:35:26.380 Loose ends everywhere.

00:35:27.460 I wrote to every MP, MEP, and peer

00:35:29.460 asking if they'd read it.

00:35:30.680 Most hadn't.

00:35:31.620 They voted it through regardless.

00:35:33.280 I became convinced that Europe

00:35:34.380 had failed politically

00:35:35.160 and was trying to impose an economic fix

00:35:37.060 to realise its dream

00:35:38.080 over the United States of Europe.

00:35:39.520 That woke me up.

00:35:41.100 Long interview in

00:35:42.040 Ireland with Rupert Lowe.

00:35:43.440 And it's a good one,

00:35:45.020 because he talks about Cromwell,

00:35:46.060 but he also talks about that,

00:35:47.540 and he's right on that.

00:35:48.320 And that's why he left

00:35:49.080 the Conservative Party in 1993.

00:35:51.520 He actually campaigned against them

00:35:53.080 in 1997 for the Referendum Party,

00:35:56.700 which I don't know anything about.

00:35:58.260 That was James Goldsmith's thing.

00:35:59.560 Is that an anti-EU party, is it?

00:36:01.040 Yeah, that was...

00:36:02.260 Yeah, and James Goldsmith,

00:36:04.280 he was this sort of

00:36:04.920 arch-globalist businessman,

00:36:06.580 but he absolutely nailed

00:36:08.500 what the effect of the changes

00:36:10.060 to world trade policy

00:36:10.980 were being at the time.

00:36:12.020 Right, right.

00:36:12.880 I mean, actually,

00:36:13.920 what I will do is

00:36:14.720 I'll dig out the interview

00:36:16.760 that he gave

00:36:17.360 and send it to you,

00:36:18.320 back in 1993 or 2,

00:36:19.800 whatever it was.

00:36:20.900 And it is so prescient,

00:36:22.720 you won't believe it.

00:36:23.580 Okay.

00:36:23.940 Yeah.

00:36:24.460 So the point being is that

00:36:26.160 basically all of the

00:36:28.160 reformed affections,

00:36:29.140 or at least a huge number of them,

00:36:31.640 at least the recent ones,

00:36:33.500 are Tories who got wiped out

00:36:34.400 by Sinax Disastrous.

00:36:35.380 So can I add something to this?

00:36:36.560 Because...

00:36:36.860 Yeah.

00:36:38.180 You might assume

00:36:39.140 that that's just normal, right?

00:36:40.720 Because when I...

00:36:41.920 I used to be

00:36:43.520 a Tory for my sins

00:36:44.860 back in the day,

00:36:46.200 and then obviously

00:36:46.820 when UKIP came along,

00:36:48.020 it was like,

00:36:48.420 okay,

00:36:48.600 there's a better alternative now.

00:36:50.220 And I went to a couple

00:36:51.000 of UKIP meetings

00:36:51.740 and you've probably

00:36:52.660 experienced this as well

00:36:53.320 because you got much deeper

00:36:54.300 into UKIP than I ever did.

00:36:55.900 But I was expecting

00:36:57.180 to turn up to those meetings

00:36:58.720 and find a whole bunch

00:36:59.680 of reformatories.

00:37:01.240 I didn't.

00:37:02.460 I found maybe one or two,

00:37:04.300 but they were almost all

00:37:05.880 either non-voters

00:37:07.740 or former Labour voters.

00:37:08.980 Yes.

00:37:10.140 UKIP was very much filled

00:37:11.760 with former Labour voters

00:37:12.800 because there's a lot more

00:37:14.440 working class coded.

00:37:15.860 Yes.

00:37:16.120 And so I found UKIP

00:37:18.460 a very comfortable party

00:37:19.540 to be a part of, actually.

00:37:21.120 Everyone was very kind to me.

00:37:22.380 And by Labour voters,

00:37:23.440 I don't mean like

00:37:24.220 how you think of them today 0.95

00:37:25.320 as woke lunatics. 0.90

00:37:26.300 I mean as in the old-fashioned 0.94

00:37:28.380 working class,

00:37:29.360 salt-of-the-earth Brit type.

00:37:30.880 Yes.

00:37:31.560 Yeah.

00:37:32.040 UKIP was very much like that.

00:37:33.940 Yeah, not filled with ex-Tories.

00:37:35.920 So this is unusual, right?

00:37:38.020 This is a new state of affairs.

00:37:39.440 Yes.

00:37:39.720 But a lot of them

00:37:40.540 were the product of

00:37:41.180 Cameron's affirmative action programmes.

00:37:43.760 And they've been taken in

00:37:46.040 by Farage for the same reason

00:37:47.740 that they were advanced

00:37:48.880 in the first place.

00:37:50.380 A lot of them are

00:37:52.360 well, kind of diversity-hired.

00:37:54.360 I mean the handful of Tories

00:37:55.480 that I actually like,

00:37:56.520 people like Desmond Swain.

00:37:57.840 Yeah.

00:37:58.240 He predates the DEI policies

00:38:01.820 of Cameron.

00:38:02.980 He's probably in Thatcher's party.

00:38:04.800 Yes, probably was.

00:38:05.920 Yeah.

00:38:06.820 But anyway,

00:38:07.140 so I thought we'd go through,

00:38:08.640 who wasn't a Tory?

00:38:09.780 Well, James McMurdoch

00:38:10.880 actually got kicked out.

00:38:14.240 He got kicked out of the Tories?

00:38:15.440 No, he got kicked out of reform.

00:38:17.280 Oh, okay.

00:38:18.140 So what was he before that then?

00:38:19.560 He's a young guy.

00:38:20.400 He wasn't a politician.

00:38:21.900 Okay, well I mean

00:38:22.420 that is more than what you'd expect

00:38:24.080 from the UKIP heritage.

00:38:25.680 It's people who were like,

00:38:26.660 no, I've never found something

00:38:28.160 that I could attach myself to

00:38:29.520 until now.

00:38:30.800 Yeah.

00:38:31.100 And that's literally

00:38:31.940 how James McMurdoch

00:38:33.360 arrived at this point.

00:38:34.980 So, you know,

00:38:35.960 but he's no longer in reform.

00:38:37.900 So you're kicked out.

00:38:39.140 Yeah.

00:38:39.400 So, okay, well,

00:38:40.460 you know,

00:38:40.960 bad luck.

00:38:42.440 And Luke Campbell,

00:38:43.840 who was the boxer,

00:38:45.640 he's the only guy

00:38:46.560 because he wasn't a politician.

00:38:49.240 Honestly,

00:38:49.980 I'm not sure

00:38:51.260 who else

00:38:51.960 of the reform notables

00:38:53.220 wasn't at some point

00:38:54.960 a conservative.

00:38:55.740 Does your list stop here?

00:38:57.160 Yes.

00:38:57.760 Because your list of formatories

00:38:58.820 was very long.

00:39:00.680 Your list of not formatories

00:39:02.620 was very short.

00:39:03.520 Yes, that's true.

00:39:05.580 And the thing is,

00:39:06.380 my list of formatories

00:39:07.360 is not even complete.

00:39:08.720 They were just the ones

00:39:09.360 that I could think of

00:39:10.180 off the top of my head.

00:39:11.660 Yeah.

00:39:12.280 There are definitely others

00:39:13.560 who have escaped me

00:39:14.560 that people can leave

00:39:15.360 in the comments.

00:39:16.420 But that's the point, right?

00:39:17.780 It's like, okay,

00:39:19.440 a lot of people are saying,

00:39:22.280 well,

00:39:22.480 this is a conservative

00:39:23.260 retirement home

00:39:24.000 for failed Tories

00:39:24.780 who can't get back

00:39:25.480 into Parliament

00:39:25.960 any other way.

00:39:26.900 All I'm seeing

00:39:27.660 is that movie scene

00:39:28.600 in Terminator 2

00:39:29.700 where the T-1000

00:39:30.660 is reforming

00:39:32.660 but this time

00:39:33.200 with a different face on.

00:39:34.580 Yes.

00:39:35.860 And it's like, okay.

00:39:37.440 And there's a kind of,

00:39:38.580 there's a strange aspect

00:39:39.580 of great replacementism

00:39:41.680 in the Reform Party as well.

00:39:43.980 I mean,

00:39:44.160 if you think Richard Tice

00:39:44.880 gets replaced

00:39:45.380 by Zia Yusuf,

00:39:47.080 you know,

00:39:48.000 Rupert Lowe

00:39:48.560 and James McMurdoch

00:39:49.500 get replaced

00:39:50.480 with Lalia Cunningham

00:39:52.160 and Nadeem Zahawi.

00:39:57.020 There's a weird

00:39:58.300 affection for Muslims 0.99

00:40:00.920 in reform

00:40:02.140 which everyone

00:40:02.940 is having trouble understanding

00:40:04.160 because for our American viewers,

00:40:06.300 reform already,

00:40:07.180 Britain is only 7% Muslim, right? 0.93

00:40:09.620 Muslims are not like 1.00

00:40:10.740 a swinging voting bloc.

00:40:12.940 But they seem a lot more

00:40:14.140 because they have

00:40:14.900 the full backing

00:40:16.320 of the political class

00:40:17.440 including reform.

00:40:19.060 Correct.

00:40:19.420 And they can get MPs

00:40:20.440 because they cluster

00:40:21.220 in certain locations.

00:40:22.760 Yeah.

00:40:23.080 So they can get

00:40:23.420 a couple of MPs.

00:40:25.640 Like the independent 0.65

00:40:26.360 Gaza MPs

00:40:27.180 are the best example.

00:40:28.340 But they are actually

00:40:29.960 not an influential

00:40:31.420 voting demographic

00:40:32.720 in my opinion.

00:40:34.740 Like if you were

00:40:35.280 a right-wing party,

00:40:36.860 you still look at England

00:40:37.960 being 70 cent English

00:40:40.160 and all of the shires

00:40:41.840 and realise

00:40:42.620 no, no, no.

00:40:43.160 More than enough demographics.

00:40:44.140 If you wanted

00:40:45.240 to go hard on this

00:40:46.220 and you wanted

00:40:47.620 to come out

00:40:47.980 and say

00:40:48.460 Halal Food banned

00:40:50.220 mosques ban

00:40:51.580 mosques closed down

00:40:52.700 and you were

00:40:53.780 to attract the ire

00:40:55.000 of the entire

00:40:55.980 Muslim voting bloc

00:40:57.160 it would just mean

00:40:58.420 that you're going

00:40:58.760 to lose seats

00:40:59.320 that you're going

00:40:59.720 to lose anyway.

00:41:00.460 Ones in Birmingham

00:41:01.140 and London

00:41:01.820 and a handful

00:41:02.480 of other places.

00:41:03.380 You're going to lose

00:41:04.060 seats that were

00:41:04.460 definitely going

00:41:05.020 to either Labour

00:41:05.580 or the Greens

00:41:06.080 or maybe an

00:41:06.960 independent Muslim MP.

00:41:08.120 Yes.

00:41:08.460 You were never

00:41:09.020 going to win

00:41:09.500 these seats.

00:41:10.340 So they should

00:41:10.780 already have been

00:41:11.520 carved out of

00:41:12.420 your political

00:41:12.800 calculation.

00:41:13.220 It's costless

00:41:14.080 to not pander

00:41:15.600 to them.

00:41:16.300 Yeah, exactly.

00:41:17.280 It's costless

00:41:18.340 to any right-wing

00:41:19.400 party.

00:41:20.240 So it's really

00:41:20.620 bizarre that

00:41:21.100 Nigel Farage

00:41:21.880 announced

00:41:22.560 Policy Lalio

00:41:23.280 as our

00:41:23.560 mayor of London.

00:41:25.080 She's the only

00:41:25.660 candidate who

00:41:26.080 can defeat

00:41:26.720 Sadiq Khan.

00:41:27.260 So we're just

00:41:28.120 accepting

00:41:29.340 that London

00:41:30.180 is an Islamic

00:41:31.240 fife.

00:41:31.760 That would be

00:41:32.660 a carve-out

00:41:33.260 because again

00:41:34.020 Muslims are not 1.00

00:41:34.780 a majority in

00:41:35.320 London either

00:41:35.820 but because they

00:41:36.620 vote as a bloc

00:41:38.280 that basically

00:41:38.780 means that

00:41:39.240 Sadiq Khan

00:41:39.740 can't lose.

00:41:40.980 Well, hang on,

00:41:42.300 hang on.

00:41:42.480 That's not

00:41:43.500 necessarily true

00:41:45.160 because London

00:41:45.580 is still 37%

00:41:46.780 English and

00:41:48.360 Yeah, but they

00:41:48.680 don't vote as a 0.92

00:41:49.180 bloc.

00:41:49.700 No, that's true

00:41:50.280 but as we saw

00:41:52.800 on the map of

00:41:53.600 London in the

00:41:54.100 last one,

00:41:55.400 reform are making

00:41:56.260 some serious

00:41:56.800 inroads in those

00:41:57.880 areas, right?

00:41:58.620 So it's likely

00:41:59.620 that the English

00:42:00.840 vote is going to

00:42:01.500 swing to reform

00:42:02.120 in London.

00:42:03.360 But also there

00:42:04.100 are lots of

00:42:05.020 migrants who are

00:42:05.760 not Muslim.

00:42:06.980 London is about

00:42:07.840 30% Muslim 0.85

00:42:08.780 which is a lot

00:42:10.320 but that's

00:42:11.300 still another

00:42:11.820 30% of

00:42:12.700 migrants who

00:42:13.920 are not

00:42:14.280 Muslim, right? 0.66

00:42:15.440 I think the

00:42:16.380 argument is that

00:42:17.140 if that 30%

00:42:18.140 goes for one

00:42:19.120 candidate, that

00:42:20.080 candidate wins

00:42:20.980 because every

00:42:21.740 other constituency

00:42:22.700 bifurcates on

00:42:24.100 various places.

00:42:25.100 I'm not entirely

00:42:26.160 sure about the

00:42:26.680 logic of this

00:42:27.300 because Sadiq

00:42:28.240 Khan is going

00:42:29.320 to, like, he

00:42:29.960 nearly lost

00:42:32.020 last time

00:42:32.780 because Labour

00:42:33.780 were not very

00:42:34.340 popular and

00:42:35.660 Sadiq Khan himself

00:42:36.540 is not very

00:42:37.340 popular and you

00:42:39.180 are right, like,

00:42:39.740 the Muslim vote

00:42:40.260 would have been

00:42:40.600 propping up but

00:42:41.120 it's also the

00:42:41.840 Labour vote that's

00:42:42.960 propping him up,

00:42:43.560 right?

00:42:43.700 There's, like,

00:42:44.220 you know, layers

00:42:44.820 of it.

00:42:45.680 I think that Labour

00:42:46.640 vote is increasingly

00:42:47.420 shrinking and so,

00:42:49.700 I mean, 30% of

00:42:51.300 being the Muslim

00:42:51.840 vote, I mean,

00:42:52.240 that's powerful but

00:42:53.760 if you could, I

00:42:54.520 mean, it's entirely

00:42:55.080 possible you could

00:42:55.740 see a sort of 40%

00:42:56.780 Conservative coalition

00:42:57.800 and the thing is as

00:42:58.960 well, the Conservatives

00:43:00.140 run terrible candidates

00:43:01.540 in the mayoral

00:43:02.560 elections for some

00:43:03.460 reason.

00:43:03.540 Yeah, surprisingly

00:43:04.160 bad, actually.

00:43:05.040 Yeah, really bad

00:43:06.000 and even then, like,

00:43:07.040 the previous one,

00:43:09.240 right, you know,

00:43:09.900 it was really

00:43:10.360 snapping at the

00:43:11.420 heels of Sadiq

00:43:12.380 and the campaign

00:43:14.620 was really bad and

00:43:15.400 there was no real

00:43:16.120 support from central

00:43:17.000 office so I don't

00:43:18.720 know why they're

00:43:19.500 not, you know,

00:43:20.500 people in London

00:43:21.560 aren't necessarily

00:43:22.740 just hardcore

00:43:24.140 partisans, they have

00:43:25.440 real problems.

00:43:26.180 And bear in mind,

00:43:26.900 what, Boris Johnson

00:43:27.640 won it twice or was

00:43:28.600 it three times so

00:43:29.420 it is doable.

00:43:30.340 And that was only in

00:43:31.160 like 2014, 2015,

00:43:32.800 you know, it wasn't

00:43:33.580 that long ago.

00:43:35.020 London was still a

00:43:35.780 very diverse city back

00:43:36.820 then, you know,

00:43:37.340 London was less than

00:43:37.980 half English in 2011.

00:43:39.760 So it's not like that.

00:43:42.660 I don't think London

00:43:43.780 is that settled,

00:43:44.740 actually, you know,

00:43:45.460 as an issue.

00:43:46.260 And by the way,

00:43:46.580 I'm not advocating

00:43:47.160 for reforms to put in

00:43:48.420 a Muslim candidate.

00:43:49.440 No, I know, I know.

00:43:50.380 The better thing would

00:43:51.060 be to try and

00:43:51.680 engineer it so that

00:43:52.460 the Green parties do

00:43:53.560 and then the Muslim 0.80

00:43:54.720 vote splits between

00:43:55.840 Labour and Greens.

00:43:56.720 That would be the

00:43:57.780 preferable way of

00:43:58.460 engineering it.

00:43:59.020 Yeah, and like the

00:43:59.800 Aspire party or

00:44:00.700 whatever the nonsense

00:44:01.800 you got.

00:44:02.840 But, yeah, so the

00:44:05.100 conventional wisdom

00:44:06.220 that, again, I'm not

00:44:07.460 sure is true, but I

00:44:08.200 think the candidates

00:44:08.760 have just been bad 0.97

00:44:09.460 is to put a Muslim 1.00

00:44:11.160 and Lalia Cunningham.

00:44:12.800 Now, in Lalia's

00:44:14.040 defence, she doesn't 0.88

00:44:16.260 seem to be, I mean,

00:44:17.580 she said, oh, yeah,

00:44:18.360 I am a Muslim, but

00:44:19.240 like, for a lot of

00:44:20.640 Muslims, it's an 1.00

00:44:21.460 identity rather than

00:44:22.580 a religion, right?

00:44:24.240 As in, like, if the

00:44:27.440 average, you know,

00:44:28.220 the average person

00:44:28.920 on the census says,

00:44:29.920 oh, yeah, I'm a

00:44:30.300 Christian, okay, yeah, 0.98

00:44:31.900 we're, you know, most

00:44:32.760 people in the country

00:44:33.380 are Christians, but the 1.00

00:44:34.620 Church of England

00:44:35.040 turnout is 6%, so, you

00:44:36.840 know, you can say

00:44:37.580 you're a Christian and

00:44:38.540 you support, you

00:44:39.200 know, you celebrate

00:44:39.900 Christmas with

00:44:41.460 presents rather than

00:44:42.460 going to church and

00:44:43.140 worshipping Jesus, you 0.87

00:44:43.960 know what I mean?

00:44:44.320 She seems to be that

00:44:45.020 kind of Muslim, but

00:44:46.060 maybe I'm wrong and

00:44:46.860 maybe, you know, I

00:44:47.320 don't know what's in

00:44:47.920 her heart or anything.

00:44:49.440 And she is a good

00:44:50.440 speaker, she's probably 1.00

00:44:51.560 going to be a good

00:44:52.060 campaigner, she'll 1.00

00:44:52.860 probably do a good

00:44:53.540 job for them, but

00:44:54.800 people have noticed,

00:44:56.540 Dan Wootten

00:44:56.840 especially being like,

00:44:57.820 well, hang on a

00:44:58.240 second, you know, is

00:44:59.760 this, why is the

00:45:00.760 right-wing party

00:45:01.540 fielding a lot of

00:45:02.640 Muslims front and

00:45:03.680 centre?

00:45:04.380 You've got, of course,

00:45:04.920 Nadim, you've got

00:45:05.940 Zia, and now you've 1.00

00:45:07.160 got her, it's like,

00:45:09.380 do we get represented

00:45:10.880 in the right-wing

00:45:11.700 party, or is this

00:45:12.780 another conservative

00:45:13.580 party?

00:45:14.300 Well, the closest we've

00:45:15.080 got is this French 1.00

00:45:15.880 Huguenot chap, who

00:45:17.160 came over in whatever

00:45:18.800 it was, like 1066 or

00:45:20.220 something.

00:45:20.660 It was 1600s,

00:45:21.940 probably.

00:45:22.680 But, yeah, anyway,

00:45:24.100 and then he's done

00:45:24.680 some bizarre things,

00:45:25.320 like, you went to a

00:45:26.180 pro-Iran protest the

00:45:28.180 other day, and it's

00:45:28.760 like, yeah, don't get

00:45:29.260 me wrong, you know, I

00:45:29.960 don't care about the

00:45:30.640 Mullers either, but is

00:45:31.440 this really your primary

00:45:32.280 concern, that the

00:45:33.460 Iranians are a 1.00

00:45:34.620 significant demographic?

00:45:35.460 If the Iranians 1.00

00:45:37.280 overthrow their

00:45:38.640 government, I'd be

00:45:39.200 like, oh, yeah, good

00:45:39.780 for them, but I

00:45:40.520 wouldn't take time at

00:45:41.620 my day to...

00:45:43.600 No, I might send a

00:45:44.980 tweet, you know,

00:45:46.260 be like, yeah, good

00:45:46.880 luck, Iranians, you

00:45:47.780 know, I'm against the

00:45:48.880 Mullers as anyone 1.00

00:45:49.480 else, so good for you.

00:45:51.200 And then the most

00:45:52.020 bizarre thing was

00:45:52.900 Somaliland.

00:45:53.960 You want to see

00:45:55.800 them at a pro-Somaliland

00:45:57.180 protest, right?

00:45:58.860 Decades, supported

00:46:00.280 your cause, supported

00:46:01.900 your right to

00:46:02.560 statehood, and I

00:46:03.680 tell you what, the

00:46:04.620 fact you're here

00:46:05.140 today, like you are,

00:46:06.700 making noise, behaving

00:46:08.300 well, you're gaining a

00:46:10.320 lot of public trust in

00:46:11.940 this company, in

00:46:13.020 country.

00:46:13.640 I might have been the

00:46:14.420 first to speak up for

00:46:15.380 you, but believe me,

00:46:16.780 there's many more in

00:46:17.680 Parliament now listening.

00:46:19.400 I'm with you all the

00:46:20.600 way.

00:46:20.920 Keep campaigning.

00:46:22.560 Keep fighting.

00:46:23.960 Thank you very

00:46:26.520 much.

00:46:27.180 I would like to

00:46:27.780 thank again, Nigel

00:46:28.940 Farage, for coming

00:46:29.640 and supporting

00:46:30.100 Somaliland like he 1.00

00:46:31.040 always does.

00:46:33.860 He always comes out

00:46:35.540 to support Somaliland.

00:46:36.980 I was in my early

00:46:38.700 thirties before I

00:46:39.640 realised that Somaliland

00:46:40.900 was a real place and

00:46:41.720 it wasn't just people

00:46:42.460 mispronouncing

00:46:43.080 Switzerland.

00:46:44.020 Yes, for anyone who

00:46:45.100 doesn't know, Somalia,

00:46:46.480 on the whole of

00:46:46.980 Africa, on the

00:46:47.700 southern end of the

00:46:48.800 whole of Africa, 0.99

00:46:49.960 southern flank of it,

00:46:51.120 you've got Somalia,

00:46:52.480 which is an insane

00:46:53.780 failed state that was

00:46:54.780 governed by the

00:46:55.220 Italians, and on the

00:46:56.780 north of it, you have

00:46:57.540 Somaliland.

00:46:59.040 It's very much sort of

00:47:00.040 like, you know,

00:47:01.500 you know,

00:47:02.460 it's, and take this

00:47:04.580 relatively, it's the

00:47:06.020 high IQ bit of

00:47:06.920 Somalia.

00:47:08.000 Yes.

00:47:08.740 It's the bit that has

00:47:10.080 better governance than

00:47:11.780 the Italians.

00:47:13.100 But, and don't get

00:47:14.720 me wrong, I'm in favor of

00:47:16.380 them having a state,

00:47:17.180 you know.

00:47:17.860 I'm fine.

00:47:18.480 Good luck with it,

00:47:20.880 lads.

00:47:21.860 Could I have one maybe

00:47:22.900 one day?

00:47:23.600 Exactly.

00:47:24.240 I'm just like, but

00:47:25.520 Nigel, is this really

00:47:27.380 top of your list of

00:47:28.420 priorities?

00:47:29.240 Like, how is this

00:47:29.940 moving the needle?

00:47:31.980 It's weird.

00:47:33.060 And again, I've got

00:47:33.640 nothing against the

00:47:34.360 Somali landers, like, 1.00

00:47:35.840 good luck.

00:47:37.280 All the Iranians, like, 1.00

00:47:38.320 good luck.

00:47:38.920 But it's just like,

00:47:39.740 what's going on?

00:47:41.820 Anyway, we'll, we'll,

00:47:42.760 we'll get to, we'll get,

00:47:45.300 you see what I mean,

00:47:45.920 like, bizarre things,

00:47:47.100 right?

00:47:47.260 It's like, there's no

00:47:48.000 need to do this.

00:47:48.920 Yes.

00:47:49.700 You know, you, you

00:47:51.060 currently look like

00:47:52.220 you're not really making

00:47:53.840 a British party.

00:47:55.420 And then you're going

00:47:56.180 out and be like, yeah,

00:47:56.780 good luck around.

00:47:57.480 Good luck, Somali land. 1.00

00:47:58.340 It's like.

00:48:00.540 Yeah, I mean, I, I just

00:48:01.860 apologize to the audience.

00:48:02.860 I haven't, I haven't had

00:48:03.540 more to say this episode

00:48:04.440 because I'm just so

00:48:05.020 genuinely confused by

00:48:06.460 all of this.

00:48:07.140 Well, that's the point.

00:48:08.140 I mean, this was a

00:48:09.740 meme that Reform put

00:48:12.720 out going back to the

00:48:13.700 conservative.

00:48:13.960 Oh, are you saying

00:48:15.380 before I saw this?

00:48:16.500 Are you saying Reform

00:48:17.360 put this out?

00:48:18.160 Yes.

00:48:18.440 Well, I mean, it's

00:48:18.860 literally the gold

00:48:19.660 verified Reform UK

00:48:20.960 account monitoring the

00:48:23.020 situation conservatives

00:48:24.040 with all of the, I

00:48:25.340 thought that was an

00:48:25.900 attack on reform, but

00:48:27.200 they were just taking

00:48:27.720 all these Tories.

00:48:28.960 It looks like an

00:48:29.660 attack on reform in the

00:48:30.900 same way that the

00:48:31.320 conservatives are like,

00:48:32.060 yeah, look at Nadeem

00:48:32.740 Zahawi. 0.97

00:48:33.260 What a terrible guy. 0.85

00:48:33.980 he was reform like, yeah, 1.00

00:48:36.360 we've got all your crap 1.00

00:48:37.220 candidates. 1.00

00:48:38.720 We're just hoovering

00:48:39.560 them up.

00:48:39.920 We're monitoring the

00:48:40.820 situation, which is a

00:48:41.960 meme in and of itself.

00:48:44.100 But it's like, okay, but

00:48:45.380 that's just saying, oh,

00:48:47.660 we're a party of

00:48:48.400 turncoats, by the way.

00:48:50.020 Like, we're an entire

00:48:51.500 party of turncoats.

00:48:52.260 I don't have to do that.

00:48:53.460 All you need, okay, yeah,

00:48:54.960 I admit, working around

00:48:57.180 the civil service is going

00:48:58.120 to be a serious problem.

00:48:59.700 What you need is a

00:49:01.320 temperament and a skill

00:49:02.580 set that is not

00:49:03.320 necessarily having failed

00:49:04.620 in the conservative

00:49:05.360 party.

00:49:06.560 It is somebody who is

00:49:07.480 basically, go and find

00:49:09.700 guys who have been

00:49:11.460 parachuted in as a CEO

00:49:12.960 to a failing business

00:49:14.220 and have turned it

00:49:15.420 around successfully.

00:49:16.600 That's the skill set

00:49:17.740 you need.

00:49:18.200 Yes.

00:49:18.700 And there are going to

00:49:21.280 be hundreds of those

00:49:22.060 guys.

00:49:22.740 And yes, they're going

00:49:23.420 to be a bit difficult

00:49:24.060 to recruit because they've

00:49:25.000 made some money and

00:49:25.740 probably don't need to

00:49:27.020 work anymore.

00:49:28.000 But just go to them and

00:49:29.000 just say, look, you

00:49:29.960 know, your country needs

00:49:30.880 them.

00:49:31.680 Country needs you.

00:49:32.720 We're going to put you

00:49:33.340 in in a senior position.

00:49:34.720 You'll spend four to eight

00:49:36.320 years.

00:49:36.700 Yeah.

00:49:36.820 And then we make you a

00:49:37.560 lord afterwards.

00:49:38.560 You will be able to get

00:49:40.020 dozens of people with the

00:49:41.300 right skill set.

00:49:42.200 But instead, they're just

00:49:43.400 finding, okay, well, you

00:49:44.200 failed in the Tories, did

00:49:45.240 you?

00:49:45.520 Okay, good.

00:49:46.160 We have you then.

00:49:47.060 Well, that's an

00:49:47.740 interesting thing, isn't

00:49:48.480 it?

00:49:48.600 Because it's fair to assume

00:49:52.100 that every single Tory

00:49:53.620 defector in the back of

00:49:55.000 their mind has, I'm out

00:49:56.780 in the next election.

00:49:57.940 Yes.

00:49:58.180 Right.

00:49:58.740 I'm out of the May

00:49:59.400 elections for the

00:50:00.200 councillors.

00:50:00.900 I'm out of the next

00:50:01.740 general for the MPs.

00:50:03.620 There is no benefit to

00:50:05.600 staying in the

00:50:06.200 Conservatives because we

00:50:07.500 are literally going to

00:50:08.160 experience a worse, well,

00:50:09.560 no, it's not going to be a

00:50:10.280 worse bloodbath than under

00:50:11.300 Senac, but like a 0.99

00:50:12.580 secondary bloodbath where

00:50:13.500 we go from 120

00:50:14.360 politicians down to about

00:50:15.380 40 politicians.

00:50:16.600 There's no point of me

00:50:18.360 staying here.

00:50:19.200 The only way I can have a

00:50:20.660 career in politics is if I

00:50:22.180 jump ship as a turncoat to

00:50:24.820 reform.

00:50:25.440 And so it's like, okay,

00:50:26.400 well, that's interesting

00:50:27.960 because, okay, what's the

00:50:29.780 appeal of this from

00:50:30.880 reformist perspective?

00:50:32.060 Well, theoretically, you're

00:50:33.900 getting experienced

00:50:34.820 politicians, but what you're

00:50:36.080 actually getting is a bunch 1.00

00:50:37.240 of losers, right? 0.99

00:50:38.220 People who have failed, 0.86

00:50:39.700 people who are not going to

00:50:40.540 keep their seats, people

00:50:41.240 who have not persuaded the

00:50:42.140 public that they should

00:50:43.360 remain.

00:50:43.760 I want to connect a couple

00:50:45.940 of thoughts.

00:50:46.380 I put out a tweet last

00:50:47.380 night that's something about

00:50:48.100 I've been thinking about

00:50:48.820 for a while, where

00:50:50.860 basically, oh, let's see if

00:50:52.840 I can find it.

00:50:53.860 I obviously tweeted too

00:50:55.440 much yesterday.

00:50:56.160 But basically, what I was

00:50:57.080 saying is that what if we

00:50:58.820 view the UK government not

00:51:03.260 as a necessarily a failed

00:51:05.320 system, but a correctly

00:51:06.800 behaving late stage empire

00:51:08.540 where the priority is

00:51:11.360 actually, oh, here we are,

00:51:13.500 what if all the following

00:51:14.400 true?

00:51:14.840 Britain is no longer a 0.72

00:51:16.180 democracy.

00:51:16.820 It's a credential-weighted

00:51:18.160 compliance system.

00:51:19.840 Real power froze through

00:51:20.940 Treasury, regulators, and

00:51:22.440 courts because they own

00:51:23.500 risk.

00:51:24.080 The state doesn't govern.

00:51:25.600 It processes risk.

00:51:27.100 Policy is downstream of

00:51:28.860 risk framework.

00:51:30.140 And then I kind of lay this

00:51:31.140 out, and that seems to

00:51:32.080 resonate with people.

00:51:34.020 The only way that I can make

00:51:35.600 this make sense is that

00:51:37.700 reform are not preparing for

00:51:40.680 reform.

00:51:41.800 They're preparing for risk

00:51:43.560 mitigation.

00:51:44.820 And by taking these people,

00:51:46.880 if there was something, a

00:51:48.460 skeleton in the clubberd, it

00:51:49.780 would have already come out.

00:51:50.700 Whereas if you take me and

00:51:51.560 Bo, or Rupert Lowe, or any

00:51:54.680 of the other people, or, oh,

00:51:56.520 we had him on here, top chap,

00:51:58.600 barrister.

00:51:59.940 Oh, Stephen Wolfe.

00:52:00.980 Stephen Wolfe.

00:52:01.780 Yeah, if you take any of those

00:52:02.820 characters, they might actually

00:52:04.320 get something done, but they

00:52:05.900 might say something which is

00:52:07.100 five inches to the right of

00:52:08.380 Nigel Farage.

00:52:09.420 Correct.

00:52:09.680 So the only reason that he's

00:52:10.820 taking them is a risk

00:52:12.720 mitigation strategy and not a

00:52:14.940 governing strategy.

00:52:15.700 So the way, the way I think I'm

00:52:17.900 looking at it is accepting defectors

00:52:24.080 makes sense when you are in the

00:52:25.920 inferior position, right?

00:52:27.500 So if you've got a giant party like

00:52:29.720 the Conservatives with, you know,

00:52:31.860 300-odd MPs or whatever, and you

00:52:34.500 get one of them to defect, that

00:52:36.900 raises questions about the

00:52:38.400 integrity of the entire ed of

00:52:40.020 this, right?

00:52:40.700 It's like, why would you do that?

00:52:42.100 You're in a commanding position,

00:52:43.500 you have secure seats, what would

00:52:46.480 be the point of defecting?

00:52:47.560 Well, there has to be something

00:52:48.300 moral.

00:52:48.720 Well, the example was Douglas

00:52:50.060 Carswell leaving the Conservatives

00:52:51.720 to UKIP in whenever it was, like

00:52:53.640 2015 or something.

00:52:54.760 Yeah, yeah, yeah.

00:52:56.260 Like, you know, why is that?

00:52:58.120 And that's unusual, and it sort of

00:53:00.460 is a crack in the entire edifice,

00:53:02.820 right?

00:53:03.020 But that only works when you're

00:53:06.580 very low in the polls, right?

00:53:07.760 UKIP's, what, polling 5%, you know,

00:53:10.000 6% or something like that at that

00:53:11.340 time, and then one of them defects,

00:53:13.040 you think, oh, right, something

00:53:14.260 interesting has happened.

00:53:15.740 You would want to take Conservatives

00:53:18.200 at that position.

00:53:20.220 The Tories are, like, you know,

00:53:21.500 35%, 40% in the polls, whatever it

00:53:23.120 is.

00:53:23.600 UKIP's at, like, 5% or 6%.

00:53:24.760 Yeah, there's a reason that you

00:53:26.260 drain some of the energy out of that

00:53:28.400 party.

00:53:29.200 But when the position is reversed,

00:53:31.840 and you're on, like, 30% on average,

00:53:34.520 and they're on 20% on average, 1.00

00:53:36.600 why are you sucking up these losers 0.99

00:53:38.600 that you have defeated? 1.00

00:53:39.640 And there has-beens as well. 0.93

00:53:41.240 Yeah, not just losers, also has-beens. 0.99

00:53:44.100 Why are you sucking them up? 0.99

00:53:45.120 What's the advantage to you? 0.98

00:53:46.820 Like, that actually makes them look

00:53:48.820 like they're taking you over.

00:53:50.300 Genuinely, I think the only thing

00:53:51.680 that I can think of is that if one

00:53:54.620 of them gets attacked, and they've

00:53:57.580 been found to have said something

00:53:59.020 a bit based at one point, and the

00:54:01.100 media kicks up a storm, then Nigel

00:54:03.100 can say, well, look, this person was

00:54:04.380 a Conservative for 20 years, don't

00:54:05.720 blame me.

00:54:06.820 That's literally the only thing that

00:54:08.620 I can think of.

00:54:09.140 It's not governance, it's not

00:54:10.520 reforming the nation, it's not

00:54:12.320 tackling the civil service, it is

00:54:14.540 comms risk mitigation.

00:54:17.300 Entirely possible.

00:54:18.100 And they're probably thinking, well,

00:54:18.920 these people, having been

00:54:20.440 politicians in some stripe, will at

00:54:23.400 least know not to say anything

00:54:25.220 interesting on an interview, or to

00:54:27.140 the press, or something like that.

00:54:28.600 Maybe it's just headache management.

00:54:31.720 But the point I was making is, if

00:54:33.860 you're in the superior position, and

00:54:35.380 you're just taking from your former

00:54:37.920 and defeated opponent, which is what

00:54:40.740 the Conservatives are to reform,

00:54:43.940 that's really weird, right?

00:54:45.580 This is like Caesar defeating Gaul,

00:54:47.340 and then immediately recruiting the

00:54:48.960 generals that did the worst in the

00:54:50.480 campaign from the Gaul side.

00:54:51.720 Yes.

00:54:52.600 Yeah, yeah, that's exactly it.

00:54:53.880 And it's like, why would you need

00:54:55.220 them?

00:54:55.460 You've crushed them, you can just 1.00

00:54:56.380 put them to death. 1.00

00:54:57.680 Yes. 0.99

00:54:58.200 Obviously, metaphorically, politically,

00:55:00.180 you know, as in, all of these people

00:55:01.560 should just be out of politics at

00:55:02.840 this point.

00:55:03.480 Oh, yeah.

00:55:04.040 Nigel should just hold, like, if

00:55:06.020 Nadim Zahawi, if I was Nigel, and

00:55:07.500 Nadim Zahawi had come to me and

00:55:08.860 said, look, I'm thinking about

00:55:10.200 jumping ship to reform, can I come

00:55:11.540 in?

00:55:12.000 I'd be like, no, but I've got to

00:55:13.420 tweet something, hang on.

00:55:14.680 Nadim Zahawi tried to join my

00:55:16.060 party today.

00:55:16.720 No, I will never take one of

00:55:19.400 Boris's failed, Boris wave, like,

00:55:22.840 pro-vaccine lockdown passport

00:55:24.580 candidates.

00:55:25.660 In fact, when we win, I'm going to

00:55:27.800 denaturalise and deport him.

00:55:31.100 That's what I would have done.

00:55:32.700 Right?

00:55:33.180 And the same goes for every other

00:55:34.980 Conservative, Boris himself included,

00:55:37.500 because he was born in America.

00:55:38.820 Yes.

00:55:39.180 Right?

00:55:39.460 Well, fair enough.

00:55:40.600 But I mean, reform already have a

00:55:41.960 rule.

00:55:42.160 They will not take you if you

00:55:43.540 have previously been a member of

00:55:44.940 the BNP.

00:55:45.980 Right, yeah.

00:55:46.360 So, fine, just add the Tories,

00:55:48.800 the Labour, and the Lib Dems to

00:55:49.940 that list as well.

00:55:50.940 Now, when you're in the lead, you

00:55:52.960 can start bullying the other

00:55:54.340 parties, and you should start

00:55:56.320 bullying the other parties.

00:55:57.960 I mean, if I were Nigel, I would

00:55:59.680 be posting this 308 majority,

00:56:01.680 400 majority seat projections, and

00:56:04.460 just start naming people.

00:56:06.180 I'd be literally like Trump

00:56:07.460 would, right?

00:56:08.080 I mean, like, you're out.

00:56:10.000 You're not going to have a seat

00:56:10.900 anymore, it's just going to be

00:56:12.020 one of my guys, and you don't

00:56:13.200 know who he is until I give it

00:56:14.560 to him.

00:56:14.880 I mean, it's basic game theory.

00:56:16.000 If you're playing poker and

00:56:17.120 you're the big stack, your job,

00:56:19.580 the sound move, is to start

00:56:21.040 bullying mercilessly everybody.

00:56:24.500 That is the correct game theory.

00:56:26.380 Yes.

00:56:27.000 And yet, Nigel Farage is acting

00:56:28.220 like he's in the inferior

00:56:29.280 position, so, oh, I need to

00:56:30.300 steal their men.

00:56:31.300 It's like, no, no, there isn't

00:56:33.060 a, you know, A, none of these

00:56:34.580 are their best and brightest.

00:56:35.520 They're all failures, right?

00:56:36.580 So, if, you know, like I said,

00:56:37.800 with Danny Kruger, I can

00:56:38.900 understand Dan Kruger, smart guy,

00:56:40.300 sensible guy,

00:56:40.900 serious.

00:56:41.000 That's the one I get.

00:56:42.040 I get Danny Kruger.

00:56:43.120 Yeah.

00:56:43.540 Nadine Doris.

00:56:44.880 Nadine Zahawi.

00:56:45.960 Crazy cat lady. 0.97

00:56:47.060 Any of these weird people. 0.87

00:56:48.320 Why would you want any of these

00:56:49.460 people?

00:56:49.760 No idea who they are.

00:56:50.420 Like, what are you, exactly,

00:56:51.320 no idea who they are.

00:56:52.060 They're completely unnotables.

00:56:53.260 You could just draw up

00:56:54.820 completely loyal people.

00:56:56.400 And another thing.

00:56:57.120 Yes.

00:56:58.440 Is the nature of being a

00:56:59.780 turncoat itself.

00:57:01.100 Yep.

00:57:01.820 It's not a good thing to be a

00:57:03.180 turncoat.

00:57:04.220 It shows that, as the Groucho

00:57:06.880 Marx quote, well, I have other

00:57:08.320 principles.

00:57:08.860 I'm not a reliable person.

00:57:10.060 And so, okay, that's great,

00:57:11.940 Nige. 0.94

00:57:12.220 The wind's with you now.

00:57:13.420 Yes.

00:57:13.600 But when things start getting

00:57:14.420 difficult, well, you're

00:57:15.860 surrounded by turncoats.

00:57:16.920 And just to clarify what I'm

00:57:17.880 in there, it's perfectly fine to

00:57:19.020 go on a political journey

00:57:19.960 throughout your life.

00:57:20.700 Yes.

00:57:20.920 So, I mean, I was a Tory once and

00:57:22.300 then a UKIPA once and so on, so

00:57:23.660 I've gone through the whole kind

00:57:25.420 of arc thing.

00:57:26.020 That's perfectly fine.

00:57:26.500 I've been on the journey, you

00:57:27.620 know.

00:57:27.760 The thing that's not fine is to

00:57:29.580 sign up for a constituency under

00:57:31.720 one party.

00:57:32.620 Yeah.

00:57:32.960 And then the moment it looks

00:57:33.980 like you're not going to be able

00:57:34.820 to win again under that party

00:57:36.180 banner to then flip, that's not

00:57:38.260 the same thing.

00:57:39.620 You should, at the very least,

00:57:40.780 fall on your sword.

00:57:42.020 Yes.

00:57:42.640 And say, right, okay, why is

00:57:44.020 that?

00:57:44.200 And then get out and campaign and

00:57:45.380 do whatever it is you're going

00:57:46.080 to do.

00:57:46.640 But, no, this is very clearly

00:57:48.940 they know they're getting

00:57:50.760 whacked.

00:57:51.780 But, like I said, being

00:57:52.580 surrounded by turncoats is being

00:57:53.860 surrounded by unreliable people.

00:57:55.920 I don't want to be surrounded

00:57:57.240 by unreliable people who, when

00:57:59.080 the wind changes and actually

00:58:00.500 it's against Nigel Farage, what

00:58:01.860 if Rupert Lowe starts a party

00:58:03.080 and he just comes out with a

00:58:04.260 hardline Trumpian sort of angle

00:58:06.660 like, we're going to stop all

00:58:08.300 immigration.

00:58:09.140 And Farage is like, oh, no, I

00:58:09.960 would never do that.

00:58:10.660 I love my Muslims, you know.

00:58:11.880 Like, what if then the wind

00:58:13.840 starts blowing towards Rupert and

00:58:15.780 Rupert's suddenly like, you

00:58:16.620 know, 5%, or suddenly he's at

00:58:18.040 7%, suddenly he's at 12%, and

00:58:20.660 Reformer down to 20% with the

00:58:22.280 Conservatives and Labour.

00:58:23.520 And they're all starting to

00:58:24.280 look like the, you know, do

00:58:25.580 those guys go, oh, actually,

00:58:27.380 I'm moving across?

00:58:29.200 How do you know?

00:58:31.900 Yeah.

00:58:32.500 I kind of doubt that Rupert

00:58:34.200 would have let them in.

00:58:35.620 Well, yeah.

00:58:36.380 Yeah.

00:58:37.720 Yeah, I agree.

00:58:38.580 Rupert's not going to let them

00:58:39.380 in.

00:58:39.560 But the point is, you're

00:58:41.040 surrounded by Conservative

00:58:42.140 turncoats.

00:58:42.920 That's not a good thing.

00:58:43.760 It's not morally upstanding to

00:58:45.600 be a turncoat.

00:58:47.640 No, agreed.

00:58:48.660 Like, there should be a great

00:58:51.220 deal of public contrition over

00:58:54.000 the fact that you felt the

00:58:54.740 need to do this.

00:58:55.780 Yes.

00:58:56.420 But, no, they're just

00:58:57.520 sauntering over.

00:58:58.240 What did they do after the

00:58:59.320 war with the French comfort

00:59:02.020 girls? 0.96

00:59:02.340 I mean, they at least paraded

00:59:03.140 them in the street and shaved

00:59:03.940 their hair.

00:59:04.080 Oh, they shaved their hair,

00:59:04.760 yeah.

00:59:05.100 Yeah, why can't we do that

00:59:06.000 with Tories?

00:59:07.140 Yeah, and then you get let

00:59:08.300 into the party because you've

00:59:09.320 been through the ringer.

00:59:10.780 Well, maybe.

00:59:11.800 Andy Burnham, a great

00:59:13.280 Manchester mayor, is like,

00:59:14.720 well, I suspect Farage's

00:59:16.320 willingness to represent any

00:59:17.300 old Tory into reform is not

00:59:18.400 And Andy's right.

00:59:19.400 I completely agree.

00:59:20.440 Andy is right.

00:59:21.240 Completely agree with him.

00:59:23.340 And the question that he's

00:59:24.940 basically raising is, is there

00:59:26.160 a single Tory you wouldn't

00:59:27.480 accept?

00:59:28.620 What happens when Boris is

00:59:29.760 like, yeah, okay, I know I

00:59:31.580 may have flooded the country

00:59:32.540 with millions of foreigners,

00:59:33.700 but can I join you as well?

00:59:35.620 Yeah, why not?

00:59:36.720 He's got experience in

00:59:37.780 government, Nigel.

00:59:38.600 I mean, presumably.

00:59:39.400 He can raise money.

00:59:40.340 The only ones he wouldn't

00:59:41.500 take are the ones that we

00:59:42.720 would actually not mind.

00:59:44.160 So presumably if Sir

00:59:45.840 Desmond Swain, Smyrla

00:59:47.500 Bravement and Liz Truss

00:59:48.900 tried to join, presumably

00:59:50.300 they wouldn't because they're

00:59:51.560 the only ones who were

00:59:53.000 potentially suitable.

00:59:54.400 Agreed.

00:59:55.220 Agreed.

00:59:55.720 It's really, really bizarre

00:59:57.020 and it's something that's

00:59:58.580 beginning to tell.

00:59:59.680 So reforms membership is

01:00:00.860 actually dropping now.

01:00:02.800 This, you will see, it's

01:00:04.340 not only by a few hundred,

01:00:05.600 but it's only been a few

01:00:06.520 days, right?

01:00:07.160 So this is from the 13th

01:00:08.200 of January, where it's

01:00:09.580 270,729 and then from

01:00:14.180 yesterday, it was down a

01:00:15.780 few hundred.

01:00:16.340 So it's not nothing, but it

01:00:18.240 should be going in the

01:00:18.920 other direction, right?

01:00:20.560 So it's something to keep

01:00:22.360 an eye on.

01:00:23.400 Yes.

01:00:24.000 Especially as these things

01:00:25.160 tend to, that you buy a

01:00:27.380 year's membership anyway,

01:00:28.780 right?

01:00:28.960 So these are people who are

01:00:30.120 now just like, yeah, I'm

01:00:31.080 not into it.

01:00:31.940 But as things go on, I do

01:00:33.620 think we will start seeing

01:00:34.860 this.

01:00:34.980 But the engine has

01:00:35.720 started to splutter.

01:00:37.220 Yeah.

01:00:37.640 And this is a worry.

01:00:39.680 And the reason this all

01:00:40.540 bothers me is because of

01:00:41.860 people like this.

01:00:42.980 So this was just a poll

01:00:44.260 from before Nadim Zahawi

01:00:46.500 was announced from

01:00:47.980 Joseph Bohm.

01:00:48.620 Now, Joseph Bohm is a

01:00:51.420 Reform UK councillor.

01:00:52.900 He's one of those 19 0.99

01:00:53.720 year olds that got on the

01:00:55.200 councils.

01:00:55.900 And as you can see, he's

01:00:58.120 doing the right thing for

01:00:59.840 the right reason, right?

01:01:01.020 He's, you know, he joined

01:01:02.340 Reform to stand up for his

01:01:03.780 family community.

01:01:04.240 He's trying to make a

01:01:04.760 difference.

01:01:05.240 He's trying to make a

01:01:05.820 difference.

01:01:06.240 He's young.

01:01:06.940 He's idealistic.

01:01:08.240 The people are speaking.

01:01:09.060 Time for real change.

01:01:10.900 But he's going to find

01:01:11.860 himself in the

01:01:12.700 Conservative Party.

01:01:14.980 Like, and ironically, he's

01:01:16.920 just going to.

01:01:17.420 And so what is happening is

01:01:19.480 that obviously there isn't

01:01:20.380 going to be any real

01:01:21.020 change.

01:01:21.660 I think that Reform will

01:01:22.840 just tinker around the

01:01:23.820 edges.

01:01:24.560 Nigel, feel free to

01:01:25.600 completely blow me away on

01:01:27.480 this one, right? 0.98

01:01:28.620 Feel free to go balls to

01:01:30.500 the wall radical and, you

01:01:32.460 know, be like, right, okay,

01:01:33.280 we've got legislation to

01:01:34.500 pass.

01:01:34.960 We've got things to

01:01:35.600 repeal.

01:01:36.280 We have got people to

01:01:37.200 deport, right?

01:01:38.240 You feel free to prove me

01:01:40.260 wrong on this, but I don't

01:01:41.880 think anything major is going

01:01:43.040 to change if the party of

01:01:44.380 concern, if the reform just

01:01:46.140 morphs T-1000 style into the

01:01:48.860 Conservatives and suddenly

01:01:50.300 find themselves back in

01:01:51.400 government.

01:01:52.700 It reminds me of the last

01:01:53.960 paragraph of Animal Farm by

01:01:55.420 George Orwell.

01:01:56.400 I can't remember.

01:01:56.960 I look from man to pig and 0.88

01:01:59.800 pig to man. 0.98

01:02:00.520 Oh, yes. 0.99

01:02:00.980 And they were all Tories.

01:02:02.320 Yes.

01:02:03.060 Yes.

01:02:03.420 Yeah.

01:02:03.640 I don't know exactly how

01:02:04.420 George Orwell wrote it, but

01:02:05.520 yeah.

01:02:06.200 But that is exactly what this

01:02:07.440 is looking like.

01:02:08.220 And so it's, you know, it's

01:02:10.680 young men like Joseph who are 0.71

01:02:11.860 going to be completely sold

01:02:12.660 up the river and become very,

01:02:14.000 very cynical and jaded about

01:02:15.960 the system, which obviously

01:02:17.400 many years ago, I went to a

01:02:18.900 presentation by Bob Ayling of

01:02:20.940 British Airways.

01:02:21.800 Do you remember when British 0.99

01:02:22.480 Airways, they used to have the

01:02:23.400 flag on the tail?

01:02:24.720 Yeah.

01:02:24.900 And then they've gone back

01:02:27.460 to it now, but they had a

01:02:28.620 period about 10 years where

01:02:29.640 what they did is they put

01:02:30.520 like African women, murials 1.00

01:02:32.820 on, you know, and people in

01:02:35.140 India and stuff like that on

01:02:36.440 the back of their airplanes.

01:02:38.240 And I was saying to him, I

01:02:40.800 don't think this is a good

01:02:41.440 idea, Bob.

01:02:41.980 I don't think you want to mess

01:02:43.760 with a brand like this.

01:02:44.700 And his marketing guy jumped

01:02:46.240 in at that point and said,

01:02:47.000 oh, nonsense.

01:02:47.540 The worst impact that it can

01:02:48.700 have is no impact.

01:02:50.240 I was like, no.

01:02:52.660 Anyone who knows anything

01:02:53.760 about this.

01:02:54.300 You've got a brand that

01:02:56.100 people identify with.

01:02:57.140 If you dilute the value of

01:02:58.920 that brand, you can absolutely

01:03:00.980 go down.

01:03:01.640 And he just looked, because I

01:03:02.780 was quite a young man at the

01:03:03.640 time, he just looked at me

01:03:04.320 like, no, you don't know what

01:03:04.980 you're talking about.

01:03:05.620 Anyway, exactly the thing that

01:03:07.300 I said was going to happen

01:03:08.460 happened.

01:03:09.200 And they rolled it back after a

01:03:10.500 few years and started to put

01:03:11.440 the flag back up.

01:03:12.280 The point here is, what if

01:03:14.900 reform basically dilute their

01:03:17.900 brand to the point where they

01:03:19.360 become seen in people's minds

01:03:22.440 as a variant of the

01:03:24.680 Conservative Party?

01:03:26.240 It's not impossible that people

01:03:28.100 then start to think, oh, well,

01:03:29.040 if it's just the Tories anyway,

01:03:31.040 I'm a little bit less attractive.

01:03:32.160 People who are going to vote

01:03:33.060 Tory are a little bit less

01:03:34.160 inclined to go across.

01:03:36.160 And reform comes down a bit,

01:03:38.260 Conservatives go up a bit, and

01:03:39.760 Labour just edge up a bit, and

01:03:42.180 then Labour win again.

01:03:43.580 Yep.

01:03:44.020 And again, this poll looks nice,

01:03:45.700 but in the poll of polls,

01:03:46.900 actually, it's a lot tighter.

01:03:50.400 And you are right.

01:03:52.180 I think a lot of people will

01:03:53.500 just be like, well, what's the

01:03:54.920 point?

01:03:55.880 You know, like, Nigel should

01:03:57.540 have put the Conservatives out

01:03:59.400 by now, right?

01:04:00.680 I can understand if literally the

01:04:02.280 Conservatives are on, like, 5%,

01:04:03.920 and Nigel was like, okay, I'll

01:04:05.260 take a few of the ones I like.

01:04:06.900 But the rest of you, cast into 0.89

01:04:08.100 the wilderness, this is what...

01:04:09.340 I am your...

01:04:10.160 Like, literally, like, Hulugu

01:04:11.260 Khan, who turns up at Baghdad.

01:04:13.220 He's like, no, I am the

01:04:13.900 punishment that God has wrought

01:04:15.020 upon you for your many sins.

01:04:16.540 I don't know what the sins

01:04:17.400 are, but since I'm here, there

01:04:19.260 must be loads, right?

01:04:20.760 Yes.

01:04:21.080 And so I'm here to destroy 0.96

01:04:22.280 Baghdad, and he does.

01:04:23.640 If Faraj was in that sort of

01:04:25.620 commanding position, maybe you

01:04:26.700 could take some ones that you

01:04:27.680 thought were good, but just

01:04:28.760 taking random defectors en masse

01:04:30.620 when you're in the superior

01:04:31.460 position is just bizarre, and I

01:04:33.860 don't see a reason for it.

01:04:35.640 And I don't know what he's

01:04:36.960 doing.

01:04:37.460 I can only assume that he is

01:04:39.020 so thoroughly purged his own

01:04:40.940 party that there's no one else

01:04:42.720 competent around him, and that

01:04:44.460 they just think, okay, we just

01:04:45.400 need bodies. 0.78

01:04:45.900 Honestly, I think on this more,

01:04:47.200 but the strongest theory I have

01:04:48.560 at this point is purely comms

01:04:51.620 risk management.

01:04:53.060 And that's what you do when

01:04:54.780 you're an insurgent party getting

01:04:56.620 attacked all the time by the

01:04:57.740 media for being racist.

01:05:00.020 It's not what you do when you're

01:05:01.600 in a leading position and the

01:05:03.060 media has to come to you.

01:05:04.480 But I don't think he can get

01:05:05.980 his... I think his

01:05:07.120 neuroplasticity died maybe in

01:05:08.680 that aeroplane crash, and he

01:05:10.820 cannot update his mental model

01:05:12.800 of how to run a party beyond

01:05:14.740 20... whatever it was, 13.

01:05:17.560 Honestly, I'm not even sure he's...

01:05:18.880 I mean, I know lots of people

01:05:20.380 from UKIP who know him and were

01:05:22.680 hurt by him personally, and I'm

01:05:24.840 not sure he's ever been brilliant

01:05:25.920 at running a party anyway.

01:05:27.720 So, well, yeah.

01:05:29.660 Anyway, we'll leave it there.

01:05:30.780 Thanks for joining us, folks.

01:05:31.900 Go and get your issue of

01:05:32.740 Islander now before it is gone, 0.97

01:05:34.280 because it will be gone, and

01:05:35.820 you'll be in my replies going,

01:05:38.280 can I get a copy of issue

01:05:39.300 whatever?

01:05:39.780 And I'm like, no, they're never

01:05:40.680 being reprinted.

01:05:41.620 I'm never doing it.

01:05:43.020 They're moments in time, and

01:05:44.800 they signify the journey that

01:05:46.640 we're on.

01:05:47.420 So go and get it now, and

01:05:48.620 thanks for joining us.

01:05:49.360 We'll be right back.

The Podcast of the Lotus Eaters - January 15, 2026

The Great Tory Replacement

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