The Local Elections Autopsy
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1 hour and 2 minutes
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3
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Summary
In this episode of the Political Chats podcast, Dan and I discuss the results of the local elections and the lessons we can learn from them. We look at how the public reacted to the result, the reaction to it, and the impact on the political landscape.
Transcript
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Hi folks, welcome to another one of our political chats. I'm joined by Dan, and I thought what we would do is a bit of an autopsy on the recent local elections results.
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Because there are, in fact, I think, lessons in them that people aren't taking, because the numbers are quite staggering.
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The swings in the seats and whatnot have been quite staggering.
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But I think there's information in there that I think is worth teasing out to properly understand.
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because actually i don't think this was quite the storming victory that it should have been
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nor was it quite the staggering defeat that it should have been right so we'll begin with uh how
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the public felt about it now this was um basically the most important thing that was talked about all
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last week which is actually quite unusual for local elections local elections have usually about
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30 turnout and nobody cares for some reason on a normal year the local elections get mentioned on
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the news as a bit and then it's over in a day and nobody normal talks about them ever yes but this
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was all last week's discussion and also it was the discussion leading up to them as well because it
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was like well when may the 7th hits yes we get whacked kissed i was out so they were very present
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in people's minds and the turnout was much higher than usual the turnout was somewhere north of 40
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percent overall that's not far off general election territory exactly the last general election was
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59 right so it's really not terribly far off which is very unusual and sometimes local elections you
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get like 20 it's sometimes even lower than that oh yeah there are candidates who win on 15 you know
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Like the unbelievably low turnout, an unbelievably scattered, fragmented landscape.
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So some of these councillors will have been elected with literally a thousand votes in a constituency of, I don't know, 50,000 or however much it was.
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So they've been treated as being very important by the political class.
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so they've been in the media they've been on the minds of all the politicians because they're being
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treated as indicative of a change in the wind and i think there's something to this there's you know
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there's definitely it's fair for for them to see this as a kind of bellwether everybody's trying
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to figure out how how politics shakes out because as we said many times you're not supposed to have
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six parties in a two and a half party system six competitive parties yes and so and so we need to
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know what what is going to be the shape of politics going forward quite aside from the issue of is this
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going to get starmer out which would have motivated a lot of people just by itself yeah and so this
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this has been um as you can see quite widely understood uh what did they hear what most
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people hear about last week the local elections this has been dominating the news cycle which in
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normal times it really wouldn't because it would have been insanely boring but at least there was
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quite exciting going on here so these are the final local election results in england uh now
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as you can see it is basically everything was going in the direction that it was predicted to
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have gone for so reform we've got a thousand four hundred and fifty four councils uh up 1452 because
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only had two going into this labor have got 1068 council councilors uh down 1498 councillors the
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The Conservatives are on 801, having gone down 563.
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And the Independents are on 213, having gone up 35.
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But they were expected to get about 1,600 to maybe 1,800 at the upper end.
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Yeah, well, let's look at the predictions that we covered last week.
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This was the aggregate predictions that Stats for Lefties has done
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the Greens north of 600, and Labour losing 1,800,
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yes well actually that this is not a great result it it's not and i tell you why it's even more
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worrying because i'm sure you've got a bit of restore stuff in here that we might come to
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you could understand it if restore won their seats but uh but reform where there was no restore
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candidate polled back at where they were before restore launch which is to say something like
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31 32 percent in the polls yeah i suspect when we dig into this i mean i haven't done the mass
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myself but i suspect you have it's it's not going to come out at 31 32 percent which is really where
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they should have been so it's it's more than just restore have knocked the shine off it it's that
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people have fundamentally reassessed their view of reform so they're taking the tories the attacks
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on rupert low they're saying you know we've got to basically transition into being a muslim nation
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and we've got to get them to vote for us when the time comes.
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Now, I know the boomer voter, people will get upset with that,
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the median boomer voter who doesn't watch anything online
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and doesn't go online is going to be unaware of this.
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Well, let me pause you on that because you're completely correct,
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but you're right, I have got the exact numbers.
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Okay, so I think the thing to take from this is what we can see is that from these numbers compared to these numbers,
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I mean, there were estimates where reform would get 1,800 seats and that Labour would lose all of their seats, basically.
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So, I mean, actually, if you go back to the one before, in terms of absolute results,
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I mean, I know a lot of Labour heartlands are including this, but they've still got 1,000 seats, right?
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Margaret Thatcher lost over 1,000 council seats in her elections.
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There are much bigger wipeouts than this in British political history
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So for everyone saying, oh, this is going to be bad,
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I mean, that is bad, but it could have been worse.
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And reform did well, but they could have done a lot better.
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And that's what the Conservatives are trading on.
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So, you know, the Conservatives, look, they had a shocking, shocking result.
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So the Conservatives were expected to do nearly 800.
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And they had some gains in other areas, actually.
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Labour failed to lose 300 seats, which everyone was expecting to lose.
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but also the greens yes but for all of this green wave failed to gain 100 seats
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so they so what we're what we can read from this i think is that actually reform and the greens
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both underperformed yep and labor and the conservatives both failed to collapse in the
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way that everyone expected them to yep lib dems did slightly better than average i suspect the
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Okay, but in a six-party environment, they held up.
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I mean, these were supposed to be the emergent second party.
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So they're 200 seats down as well, not 100 seats down.
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so even though we're framing this or that the whole discussion is framing this as a sort of
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labor wipeout and a and a sort of conservative wipeout i mean yeah but not not entirely it's
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put simply yeah if i was like polanska and nigel frage i wouldn't be thrilled with these results
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right no not if reform had got a thousand seven hundred seats i'd be over the moon i'd be like
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yep there we go we outperformed we exceeded expectations if the greens had got the 600
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they were expecting i'd have been zach policy yeah we outperformed yes but the thing is the
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polling has been in for quite a long time right it's baked in it's completely baked in at this
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point and so actually this is more indicative of a general decline of both the green and reform
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when they're meant to have the wind in their sails and they're meant to be carrying all before them
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yeah i mean this we can't deny they they've both had a good election yeah they've both got momentum
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but it is not the momentum that they were expected to have new and as you pointed out
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um reform only won here 28 of the seats okay that's hang on that's in line with their polling
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very in line with their polling actually but but but i mean just to restate my points i'm
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absolutely clear on this their polling um dipped after a store came out because a lot of people
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said well actually no i'll have silk rather than cotton but why did those people not lend their
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vote to reform in anywhere apart from great yarmouth where they didn't have a choice a great
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question i mean then that was only 10 seats well nine seats for the actual councillors and then
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one for the county council the vast the vast majority of people did not have a restore candidate
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to go to so you start to ask the question i'm sure we come on to this is is what is actually
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restore what is restore actually doing are they taking votes from reform which is what everybody
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wants to say or are they activating voters well we'll come we'll come to this right so as as you
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can see this um like i said it was 28 uh of the actual uh seats available that reform won which
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is not bad or anything like that obviously the biggest winners of the night yeah but but again
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if i was nigel frage i thought we were going to do more than that yes i would be thinking i thought
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we're going to do more than that and that's because it's down from the 2025 local election
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results um you may remember oh if i can stop zooming out and just scroll down there we go
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you may remember that they absolutely wiped the floor with everyone here getting 41 percent
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of all of the councillors which would have been at the top end of their polling for the time
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exactly when they were at 31 percent right in the polls i mean that would that would have been the
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outlier polls were put in there so exactly exactly there were outlier polls that put them near 40
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and so actually did it exactly so right as you can see this is uh something of a degradation
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in their vote share and their position just a bit i mean from 41 to 28 i mean that yeah yeah i i like
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i would be like i said if i was an angel fraud if i was in reform i'd be like okay well we did win
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but this signals problems ahead and rough seas ahead right this is not the the great win we
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thought it was going to be uh sky did their projection here um from okay what do these
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results mean um so they've rounded up to 27 for reform so that's the national equivalent vote
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which is not great uh 27 overall but uh slightly above their polling average but and those numbers
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are good are they the conservatives got 20 yeah the conservatives got 20 which is uh them over
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over performing i mean no wonder no wonder kemi badenox really jubilant at the moment because
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for the conservatives i mean this was actually quite good for the conservatives yeah i mean they
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gave it they gave us complete betrayal for 14 years i know and mass immigration and they're now
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led by a euroban and i think it's your ruben but yeah okay you know like my star wars names i get
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a bit i'll get mixed up but they but they still did that yeah that boomer vote is sticky it really
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is and it's not just the boomer vote either um i think there's a significant ethnic minority vote
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that's gone for the conservatives actually uh so yes this is this is sky's projection from these
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results which is actually pretty in line with the polling that we've been covering it's a hung
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parliament reform 284 seats labor 110 conservatives 96 lib dems 80 and the green party on 13 right i
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can just imagine jacob reese mogg dancing around his living room to this because conservative
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reform pact it's the only way forward it guarantees it basically um this this is not
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a good result for reform in my opinion and also reform underperformed in london if there we go
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that's a lot of conservative seats farrington at the start of the year said that reform was going
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to win bexley bromley and hillingdon but the tories held bexley bromley and hillingdon
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kensington and chelsea and they won westminster so no wonder kemi badenock was absolutely jubilant
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this is what i mean about there's a lot more ethnic minority vote going to the conservatives
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because they're sick of labour but the greens are mental yes and the the tories do have an
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african woman leaving them i mean to be fair not not all of the immigrants are you know just out
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for the gibbs no they're not all some of them actually if in fact if you want to hear hard
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line talk on immigration ask an immigrant who's been established here for some time ask a london
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taxi driver a london taxi driver somebody who's had an indian restaurant for the last 30 years
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these guys would would make us blush compared to what they would say about recent immigrants oh
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yeah and i guess they're not going to go to reform because they're the anti-immigrant party
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ostensibly yeah and and and the media pushes the line that they're going to do remigration they're
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not but that pushes the line so i suppose that naturally makes them conservatives yeah yeah so
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the the tories have done better in london than expected i mean that's not very much reform in
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london actually they should have had all of those blue areas should have been reform you should
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been waxing them there i mean i suppose if you're living in london you are more likely than not to
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be a uh an any an anywhere than a somewhere correct but i also it kind of implies that
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lalia cunningham's indian parade was not the vote winner that she thought it was going to be
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no um then you then you have essex now reform did well in essex that is true uh these are
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these are the predictions based against the actual results but you can see 58 predicted
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53 actual declared 13 on the conservatives you can see that again the conservatives have
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overperformed here they were supposed to have four right they've kept 13 so the conservatives
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have overperformed it's not brilliant but it's again like and reform has gained control of the
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council but it's it's not the worst thing that could have happened so i mean at the last election
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we were talking about zero seating the conservatives yes and one of the talking points that we had was
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we're comparing it to the election of what was it 1912 something like that where we're saying that
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the conservatives basically got wiped out and the liberals came in and then actually the liberals
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managed to make themselves even more hated than the Tories and what actually happened was the
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Tories survived and the Liberals got wiped out and replaced by the Green Party and we speculated
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Labour Party yeah by the Labour Party yeah and so we speculated as hated as the Tories are
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is it possible we're going to get another 1912 and actually it's Labour that wipe themselves out
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and get replaced with the Greens which we'll get to soon yeah because I agree I really think
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the conservative cockroach is going to crawl out of the irradiated ruins and so and live to live
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to betray us another day tories what once you've got an infestation of tory bloody hard to get rid
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of them in fact we've not found a way to do it but they are the 40k orcs i've got to get the
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reference in there it's mad isn't it um anyway so like i said this not not not great for the
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but not at all the total wiper and good for reform but not the staggering victory that
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nigel france was expecting and so his view view that we've absolutely walked it i mean
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big time this is a celebration and what a remarkable couple of days this has been we're
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so you can see the jubilance there yeah but i if i were him i would be less jubilant about this
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because like he's fond of telling us oh we've led the the country in 200 polls it's like okay but
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why haven't the conservatives been buried i mean back when he was polling average of about 31
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you started to hear reform insiders talk about keir starmer's mingva's strategy which which is
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we're cruising to victory farage's mingva's strategy well no it was starmer's oh right
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it was star was originally when he was under rishi sunak and and and that's where the phrase came
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from yeah and and reform started picking up on this on this terminology and so look what we got
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to do is we are out in front but we got to walk across an ice rink carrying a ming vase um and
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we got to make sure that we do it without dropping it what it actually looks like it's more like he's
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carrying a ming vase through wading through treacle because it's getting harder and harder
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and he's slowing down yes and there's there's three long years to go yes assuming assuming
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that we'll be two years in and he's already slowing down already exactly uh now he he does
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make some fair points uh betrayed voters have left labor for good this is probably true in the north
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right uh the south obviously not really a labor voting heartland um but the the betrayed labor
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voters in the in the north probably have left labor forever and i like i've said before i think
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that's frange's one genuine contribution no matter what happens yes is to break the two-party
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straggle hold here right so labor and it's in the name always used to be the party of the working
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class and then it did this thing where we're going to be the party of the working class
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and the benefits class which is of course a thing that didn't exist back in 1912 because we've
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created the benefits yes um labor see well labor are now fighting with the greens for the benefit
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class but yeah it does look like the working class well it's not just the benefit it's it's
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the working class the chav underclass the immigrant uh underclass and the managerial elite
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that labor have tried to cobble yes they are keeping the managerial elite but it's just them
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left but the working class proper yeah they've gone to farage correct yes but how how long are
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they going to go to farage for now farage himself thinks that these people are now die-hard reform
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voters and they're going to be with him forever well that's more than boris johnson was ever able
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to do and i really believe that these voters for reform are there for keeps this is a really
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no you can't you can't think like that in politics that is exactly what he's mog thought well blair
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thought it with the middle class voters um boris thought it with the with the red wall he said okay
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these people are you know these people are tory now it it didn't last 18 months with him yeah
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let alone five years literally it's the thing that boris thought yes we've won the north it's like
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no yeah no they they have they have picked you for now they are using you as a cudgel against
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the labour party yes that's what they're doing and this is what the focus group say so this is
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luke trill from more uncommon and he said um the focus groups basically uh such is people's
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frustration with the government they're willing to give it a go right and i saw him on sky news i
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couldn't find the clip uh saying this and essentially the the northern voters are tentatively
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voting for farage they are not dyed in the wool converts to the faragist reform party what they
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are doing is saying we just need something that's not labor yeah we can't we've tried the tories
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boris betrayed us which obviously the tories betrayed you uh but we still have this labor
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problem where it's not even that they're just stabbing us in the back they just you know i
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mean there's so many knives in the back of the northern voter at this point i don't know where
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they're going to go next um but they're trying farage and so this is the disaffected working
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class northerners and middle class brexteer southerners who are tentatively voting for
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farage it's it's not a landslide like he was predicting um well i mean by very very definition
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i mean let's go back a bit right go back to the 1950s you were kind of baked into it so if you
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were a young Tory you you probably met your wife by going to a young conservatives event yeah
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your friends were in it um you know your your network your work network your golf course it
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go to the local conservative club yes you were baked into it and on the left the same thing you
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went to your working man's club you went to your there was a whole I mean it wasn't just your
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politics it was your life was built into these things and so they were genuinely difficult to
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extract yourself i'm switching from one to the other it was it wasn't just oh i've changed my
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mind it's i'm going to upheave my life and my social sphere and thing and that and that's why
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it kind of mattered but these days i mean who relies on the conservatives labor or reform for
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anything outside of what they happen to believe at the time interesting that isn't it yeah and
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that's a great point because for i was just still thinking of the previous paradigm where these
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changes would be unthinkable yes but clearly that paradigm no longer there's no cost there's no cost
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attached to switching these days exactly and so and but moreover um the sort of leap into the
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unknown means okay i might be with the conservatives i might be with reform but who knows i might just
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keep going you don't you don't know and so this overconfidence on the part of farage in the face
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of what was not a landslide is remarkable like he says at the end of his uh times article here
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he says at the end quote the establishment thought reform uk had peaked last week the
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british public said otherwise not true no that's not what happened it's literally that you have
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peaked according to what the british public have said you got 41 of the local elections in 2025
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now you got 28 in the local elections in 2026 that's a peak you're on the decline yeah and
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it's still good enough to be the largest party in the parliament but exactly you'll you'll be
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you're not storming to a win anymore exactly and moreover when people are actually speaking to
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these focus groups they're saying look we're just going to give it a shot because anything's better
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than labor we tried tories they betrayed us now we're going to try reform hopefully they don't
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betray us the sort of you know wide-eyed northern voters say and so for us is completely misreading
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the room saying oh they're there we've got them for keeps you don't know that only until you fail
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them basically um so like i said wasn't the landslide they are on the decline but where was
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there a landslide well great yarmouth is where there was a landslide right now this is remarkable
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so in 2024 when rupert was elected he got as you can see from here uh there was a turnout of 56
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uh 55.6 uh he got 35 of the votes on which was 14 000 votes now that's a significant i mean that's
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basically um what farage is looking at now well it's less than what farage is looking at now
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actually um but that was this is a lot this is rupert's election is it this is rupert's election
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in 2024 and also i mean i mean yes some people have heard of him as as the southampton chairman
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sure but but he wasn't he wasn't a big name he wasn't a name in politics at all really he wasn't
00:24:10.280
a name in norfolk politics in fact we we did we did the election thing and we had our eyes on a
00:24:15.000
few mps he wasn't one of them i saw a few mp candidates he wasn't one of them no he he came
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out of tyson for us yes yeah and there was a couple of others i remember being in that green
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screen thing keeping an eye on none of them won it was him and a complete unknown that
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oh i forget his name now but that random chap who who got in oh what james murdoch yes that's the
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one yeah he was so he kind of come i know so that result here is is a result of the reform name at
00:24:46.020
the time plus that he obviously actually knows how to run a local campaign yes and so 35 the votes
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14 000 votes 55 turnout that's fine that was enough to make him an mp uh then of course farage
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kicked him out of the party and tried to get him put in jail but he did better in the local elections
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by quite a long shot by quite a wide margin um so he in total great yarmouth first there are
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like um loads of these but i mean these these are staggering numbers right so the average in fact
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i've got a graph here so the average in the in all of these nine wards where great yarmouth first
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stood they got an average of 46 of the votes they got in total 15 600 votes so more than a thousand
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extra votes with a 46 uh sorry a 45 or 46 average turnout so lower turnout more votes higher share
00:25:44.640
of the vote but the fascinating thing about this right look look at that look at the second and
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and so on places the greens still did decently they took a dip yep the conservatives still did
00:25:57.720
decently reform still did decently yep right so yeah okay they're not so it's it's 20 as opposed
00:26:04.040
to 28 across the country as a whole but what but what this is telling me is they didn't get eight
00:26:09.260
percent of the vote yes like he didn't split the vote yes you don't know where these people came
00:26:14.900
from well clearly they weren't exist they weren't existing voters you can't make the numbers add up
00:26:21.200
any other way he's activating non-voters to come in and you can tell because reform are holding up
00:26:26.820
yeah okay they drop from from 28 to 20 yeah so some of those are reform voters yeah but a hell
00:26:33.900
of a lot of them are just people who like if we just assume there's a one-to-one turnout here
00:26:38.240
right yeah so remember in 2024 he got 14 000 votes so uh basically about uh seven and a half
00:26:46.700
thousand of those votes have gone over okay but where did the other 8 000 come from yeah
00:26:51.960
right we know that people who were not voting and like votes turn ups up it should have been
00:26:58.300
in 2021 with the last great young local elections it was uh 29 turnout sounds normal for a local
00:27:05.700
election completely normal completely normal for the disaffected public 45 46 you just don't get
00:27:12.280
that in a local election it's mad it's kind of unheard of and so okay well there's another 8 000
00:27:16.600
votes that have turned up for restore britain on top of the half of the reform vote that went over
00:27:20.700
to him well you've got to explain where they came from and it's one of those things where it's like
00:27:26.080
right okay something really mad has happened here because i mean the total number of ballots cast
00:27:30.040
in those nine wards was just under 34 000 anyway so it's mad for a local election it's mad but in
00:27:37.880
the general election it was uh 72 000 in total cost so more um more was to gain here he got more
00:27:47.620
of the share of the vote more actual just absolute number here so this this is where the real energy
00:27:55.600
so the interesting thing is right this as politics is not even unprecedented if you go back to the
00:28:01.800
brexit referendum dominic cummings and he's incredibly smart he's a bit of a genius
00:28:07.940
how did he win it right he won it by activating people who had never voted before or hadn't voted
00:28:16.620
for decades and the political class they simply couldn't see this coming because they were looking
00:28:22.180
at their focus groups of likely voters they were looking at polling of likely voters and they were
00:28:27.540
looking at um twitter and they were looking at the social media they go to dominic cummings wasn't
00:28:32.860
doing any of that he was on facebook where the where the non-voters are where the normies are
00:28:37.340
he was activating voters who hadn't voted before yeah and he he won and and and and it so shocked
00:28:45.040
the political system because they simply couldn't imagine that the thing could have happened and then
00:28:50.380
having made that genius political move the most the most i don't know the the most earth-shattering
00:28:57.220
discovery of british politics in the post-war period which you could activate non-voters
00:29:01.920
what did the political class do with that information they immediately forgot it
00:29:06.800
they immediately and they went straight back to looking at likely voters yes and the first time
00:29:12.960
somebody's done anything with it we put low an unbelievable victory as well yes so
00:29:20.120
i mean what one one thing like like you say when basically half of the electorate is checked out
00:29:26.760
and a guy turns up with the party saying look this is going to be called great yarmouth first
00:29:30.480
subsidiary of restore britain and we are going to represent you yes in your politics well even if
00:29:37.880
you'd halved the great yarmouth first vote they'd still have won well and all the other ones right
00:29:42.600
including reform when you when you get into what they really believe it is a long version of look
00:29:49.280
i know there's a fix everything button but here's why we can't press yeah we're never going to press
00:29:53.600
it we're never going to press it it's it's it to do to do my farage it's impossible it's literally
00:29:59.240
impossible shaking of the head it can't be done no we we we've got to we we've got to adapt or by
00:30:06.080
2050 you know if we still haven't pushed the button well we won't be able to push the button
0.66
00:30:10.260
and we can't just play war on islam because we'll lose yes and rupert's just coming along and said
00:30:14.320
i'll tell you what i'm going to push the button yes and then all these non-voters are like oh
00:30:17.540
yeah i vote for that that sounds brilliant yes anyway and this this goes for every single ward
00:30:22.220
in which he won yeah right some of them were won on an absolute majority of 51 right you don't
00:30:28.180
even see that in a general election genuinely you have to have the most kind of homogenous
00:30:33.860
um uh immigrants dominated ward or you would have to have like a student ward for it to be
00:30:40.320
a majority labor or greens or something like that like to to manage to get the and great
00:30:45.900
yarmouth is obviously a very right-wing place you know it's a very left behind coastal town
00:30:49.820
90 plus percent white english so to get them actually to rally to this degree it's an average
00:30:57.180
of 46 like i said some of them are like 51 50 absolute majorities it's just remarkable and it
00:31:04.140
just goes show it's not that they're not interested in politics it's they just don't feel anyone's on
00:31:09.160
their side exactly anyone represents them um so just amazing uh they even got some positive
00:31:16.340
coverage on itv this is very like i say positive but we'll watch a little bit you can you can tell
00:31:22.040
that this is like fair rupert lowe's party has achieved a remarkable set of results in england's
00:31:28.760
local elections great yarmouth first a local arm of his restored britain party has won all 10 seats
00:31:52.560
across the country by the next general election,
00:32:03.500
I mean, the interesting thing is Lowe has done everything he's done whilst having a media blackout.
00:32:09.000
So if they actually start covering him, what can he do then?
00:32:19.220
So Richard Tice flatly rejected a coalition with the Tories, which is a strange thing to do.
00:32:26.760
Yeah, but he's doing it in installments by just inviting them all in.
00:32:32.760
yes uh we're not going to deal do a deal with soggy lib dems pretending to be tories no we're
00:32:37.720
just we're just gonna we're just gonna give them turquoise rosettes instead it's like but also
00:32:42.140
okay well let's let's assume you're not going to do a deal well that that means we don't get a
00:32:46.100
government yes right you're not getting government with numbers like these as you must know this
00:32:51.640
and in fact france knows this uh he doesn't rule it out he said quote i find it a highly
00:32:57.740
undesirable idea and no doubt you find it a highly undesirable idea because you should be miles in
00:33:04.380
in front of this point you should be looking at forming a government so let's pitch from here to
00:33:12.320
the government at the moment uh how are things going for the starminator now this uh this was
00:33:18.400
a yougov poll taken just after uh the local elections the 10th to 11th of may you can see
00:33:24.040
reform have actually had a three-point bump in you gov and you gov normally have them about 25
00:33:28.120
so that's okay that's pretty good restore is still on three percent so they're down minus one but
00:33:33.200
it's not terrible um but the conservatives on 17 greens on 16 and labor down minus two to 16
00:33:40.120
percent uh your party's still not and the the your the your party in restore britain still not being
00:33:44.940
prompted for some reason um even though we still just have this amazing victory uh and so things
00:33:51.480
are not going great in labour no everyone can tell things aren't going great and at the time
00:33:57.100
of recording yes things are tense in the starmer bunker i i was i was just looking down just now
00:34:03.560
to check to see if starmer had been resigned yeah but i mean that i mean when you say things are not
00:34:09.400
going well in labour i literally have to keep checking my screen to see if the prime minister
00:34:13.700
has resigned that that's some indication of how badly it's going yeah i mean it's going really
00:34:17.940
badly i mean it just looks like they're all slight look we think our time's up shibana
00:34:22.680
mahmoud two of the senior cabinet ministers look just to set our timeline to resign you've you've
00:34:27.500
got it'll be another band and um yeah oh who's the home secretary yvette cooper yep uh and and
00:34:32.660
uh no shibana moves the home secretary uh yvette cooper's um a different one oh no she's foreign
00:34:37.380
secretary now foreign secretary that's right um anyway so at the time of recording there were 86
00:34:43.040
um in fact i've got that written down as 81 so this has been updated uh 86 uh labor mps
00:34:50.260
have demanded that starmer quit but these people don't have a champion yet so to actually force
00:35:00.960
starmer out they would need to trigger a leadership election and they would all have to back the same
00:35:05.780
candidate but it was it was that um i'm getting her name wrong um rose west catherine west catherine
0.99
00:35:14.080
west yeah she she decided to be reticent about this and not put herself well that's because
0.92
00:35:18.660
she's labor and she's not particularly bright and it when it was explained to her that because she's
00:35:24.400
she's a burnham supporter when it was explained to her that if you force an election now burnham
00:35:30.380
isn't actually an mp yes and therefore you're going to hand it to um either west streeting
00:35:35.740
or angela rayner she was like oh bugger and then had to quickly retract it yes but but the point
00:35:41.660
is okay you can find somebody you would think so wouldn't you so we've got 86 uh labor mps who are
0.68
00:35:49.380
like not having it we've got cabinet members resigning jess phillips for example the women
00:35:53.660
and girls safeguarding minister i wouldn't even sack her well what's interesting i love that
00:35:57.820
she's got her own photo on there like jess phillips the known moderate a modest uh person
00:36:04.620
if i ever get headed notepaper i'm going to put my own picture on it it's wild isn't it anyway
00:36:09.020
she's she's resigned and then you've got uh alex davies jones who is the parliamentary
00:36:13.460
undersecretary for state of state for victims and tackling violence against women and girls
00:36:17.260
so this is basically the feminist caucus that's abandoning starma and then we started getting
00:36:21.740
leaked messages from the starma bunker and some of these just amazing uh well this one i think
00:36:27.020
is an important one from natasha ryan's uh bottom line changing leader because nigel farage has
00:36:31.660
forced us to is not something any of us can come back from anyone who thinks we can needs to wake
00:36:36.600
up and that's true and natasha ryan's is is it is it nigel farage was it the fact that your votes
00:36:43.140
collapsing i mean well the problem is farage framed his campaign as vote for us and the locals
0.57
00:36:49.320
get starma out what and everyone was like well yes we're not voting for the government nigel
00:36:56.000
but obviously faraj knows this he just knew that it would become politically untenable for starmer
0.83
00:37:01.980
to stay and that there'd be a lot of pressure going look our party's getting creamed here
00:37:06.320
starmer you've got to go because everyone hates you you are the most unpopular prime minister
00:37:09.720
that we've ever had labor is getting historically low vote shares it looks like we're literally
00:37:15.400
jumping off the precipice here so saying get starmer out is actually not terrible messaging
00:37:20.620
no can you can you just go back one to your your resignation tracker um uh there we go 86 okay so
00:37:29.440
it's up to 88 so from from while we've been sat here right yeah two more yep uh i mean what it's
00:37:36.860
going to be by the end of the week but they're in this double bind where if they do go yeah you know
0.99
00:37:42.120
we're gonna have to get rid of samba well guess what farage comes out and does i told you i'm the
0.99
00:37:48.140
winner here now we need to call a general election because nobody wants the country you're already
0.99
00:37:52.720
doing what i say yeah what's your excuse not to and natasha who's one of starmer's 2024 new uh mps
00:37:59.940
is right on the money she's like well you know we haven't got long histories in our own
00:38:04.980
constituencies we haven't got like solid bases yes like we're not going to win yeah like it's
00:38:10.720
going to be a bloodbath where literally like 400 labor mps never see the inside of parliament again
00:38:16.020
we can't do this and she's not wrong yeah but it's not they've got any good choices
00:38:21.900
and well that's another reason why they can't do this we'll come back no i i i didn't mean just as
00:38:28.600
in who to replace him i mean that is that is his own problem but doing nothing is disastrous and
00:38:33.580
doing something is disastrous as she points out i mean there was there was no option that is not
00:38:37.740
head on a spike at this point but doing nothing is disastrous tomorrow like you know further down
00:38:43.100
the line doing something today is disastrous now and so if we do nothing and we maybe maybe in a
00:38:49.780
year's time things have turned around who knows right it might still be disastrous well but it's
00:38:55.900
better than uh sort of collapsing the singularity and having the disaster happen right this second
00:39:00.360
you're saying that actually the least worst thing to do is just to ride star morale and collect your
00:39:05.840
mp's salary yes accumulate your mp's pension years for three more years because i mean that's that's
00:39:13.560
the giving up position yeah because i mean like natasha ryan's for example she was um some some
00:39:18.520
sort of social media producer for channel four so she'd have been on like 50 grand a year at the
00:39:22.840
most right and now she's on and now she's on nearly 100 grand well it's probably 121 once
00:39:27.960
you take the expenses yeah exactly right so i mean i if i were her i'd be like yeah i'd rather
00:39:34.300
just sit here and be hated by the country for three years and then bounce and do something
00:39:39.260
else afterwards right at least you get the money and this is why 100 labor mps have signed a letter
00:39:44.360
saying now's not the time for a leadership election so actually if you look at oh there's
00:39:50.760
86 we're saying no okay but that's not democratically majority here this is the
00:39:56.700
fascinated fascinating dilemma they've got the established mps they're thinking i can probably
00:40:03.540
cling on to my five lewis um john mcdonnell yeah diane all the names that you recognize
00:40:10.420
they're all thinking i can probably hang on to my seat how does the labor party itself survive as an
00:40:16.800
electoral force going forward yes whereas the recent intake are like i know that i'm going
00:40:22.880
so i'm i'm willing to let the i'm willing to stay on this burning cruise ship for the next three
00:40:29.240
years and just hope that it doesn't sink exactly that's exactly it and so we we have actually
00:40:34.960
more people who are actually dependent on starmer for their positions than those people who want to
00:40:40.360
see the labor parties because there was a big intake at the last election a huge intake of
00:40:45.120
newbies and so that starmer is actually not in as weak a position as people think and i we i said
00:40:53.580
this before starmer has this wrapped up and everyone yesterday was saying he's going to be
00:40:58.600
gone by the end of the day i was like i don't think so i think he's gonna stick it out i don't
00:41:03.520
know i if if i was gonna have a 10 pound flutter on this it would be that he goes by the end of
00:41:08.880
the week but you're firmly in the camp that he stays to the end of the week are you i am yeah
00:41:12.660
and so starmer right his defense his defense minister luke pollard being like i'm not resigning
00:41:18.740
whatever else is happening we will be continuing our efforts to support to to rearm rebuild the
00:41:23.720
united uh armed forces and protect the uk we're just going to do our jobs we're just going to get
00:41:29.120
with you you carry on with this right and so starmer he had a bunch of like ministerial aids
00:41:33.760
his own cabinet ministers resigning and when this happened to like rishi sennac or whoever else
00:41:40.600
boris johnson like oh oh god you know we've got to worry about the future of the party well what
00:41:45.500
if you don't care about the future of the party right yeah you can just replace them you can just
00:41:50.800
assign new people boris had this though he he had was it maybe four maybe five days i'm i'm not
00:41:57.220
i'm not remembering now where he was just regularly replacing people day in day out yes and it was it
00:42:02.080
was clown show and everyone you know the the uh media were like my god this is a a party that's
00:42:08.300
bleeding out a prime minister that's bleeding out we were only on day one of him doing this yes and
00:42:12.600
he's decided you know i can find these dependents who need me because these people haven't got
00:42:18.300
established constituencies aren't brand name mps yes and i can just shove them in no it's your
00:42:23.400
turn he won't get anything done from this point because the real power of an mp of a prime
00:42:29.200
minister is patronage yes right and and it's people think that he can get stuff done as much
00:42:34.220
as anything you still is politics is still ultimately about moving people around and
00:42:37.540
getting people to do things if people believe he no longer has the power of patridge apart from
00:42:42.620
replacing existing ministers but outside of that network he i mean i mean he might get his
00:42:49.240
breakfast clubs away but that'd be it he's burnt all of his political capital just securing his
00:42:55.700
position yes right and so that's that's great from the position of the right right so starmer
00:43:03.020
the big fear is he's going to destroy the country well if he can't do anything he actually can't
00:43:07.820
destroy the country so we can actually bank a few of the positive things that he's done he got net
00:43:11.960
immigration down by seven percent it didn't drag us into a war with iran right these are actually
00:43:16.180
moderately impressive do you think you want to take that tenor bet when we meet here next week
00:43:21.700
a tenor to me if he goes tenor to you right sure we'll take a bet bet made i'm not a betting man
00:43:28.940
but uh we'll take it um and so you're right he can't really do anything and he will just be in
00:43:34.680
this constant state of fending off challenges as the polls continue to collapse so what we are
00:43:40.360
watching is a man who is just too selfish to know when his time is up and has decided to use the
00:43:45.080
power of his office and the power of the fact that he's got 300 dependent mps on him yes to just no
00:43:51.560
i don't have to i mean i kind of admire it in one sense well i quite like it because yeah this is
00:43:56.480
great for the right oh yeah this is the preferred outcome oh it's brilliant it's i i i would have
00:44:03.040
i would have asked him to do this i have been on twitter like kid you've got to stick this out
00:44:07.300
we could be looking at the actual end of the labour party as a political party forever if you
00:44:13.140
just hold the line and not just that like the left generally no everyone's watching this kind
00:44:19.200
of disrespectful politics going on and they're kind of backbiting and you know everything they
00:44:23.480
said about the conservatives this is way worse but it didn't it didn't work for the choice so
00:44:27.440
they changed from boris johnson who had become unpopular over covid to rishi sunak who had quite
00:44:32.640
high personal numbers of people liking him didn't make a damn difference not at all because people
00:44:37.920
realized oh actually no it's it's not the leader it's just that this party is rotten yes so i don't
00:44:44.060
mind him being swapped for somebody even angela rainers who's got some personality because people
00:44:48.660
realize oh wait all of these problems are still here it's not the leader it's that labor just
00:44:54.000
needs to be destroyed yes so either way we get there and so the longer he holds out the better
00:44:58.280
and he's just going to be going to a meeting with apprentices tomorrow to underline the government's
0.72
00:45:02.720
drive to overhaul the apprenticeship system i bet he talks about bloody breakfast clubs again
00:45:06.280
absolutely right the point being he's just going to power through it and carry on as if nothing's
00:45:13.420
happening which is amazing he's just come out and he had a cabinet meeting today obviously now you
00:45:18.480
can imagine how tense this starma bunker meeting was right but he said he told the cabinet as i
00:45:24.980
said yesterday i'll take responsibility for the election results i'm sorry i'll put the
00:45:27.840
voice on and i take responsibility for delivering the change we promised the past 48 hours have
00:45:32.760
been destabilizing for the government and that is a real economic cost for our country and families
0.96
00:45:36.200
the labor part i mean you've seen the bond markets today right yeah atrocious like led by donkeys
00:45:41.720
just have never allowed to talk about liz truss ever again right yes it'll just always be thrown
0.92
00:45:47.100
in the face no no this is way worse you know under starmer well and and liz truss was was a
00:45:52.120
was a blip which kind of engineered by the bank of england this is this is a grinding they did
00:45:57.240
this to themselves yeah and the reason why it matters when it's grinding is because not only
00:46:01.100
is there the new debt issuance because they can't make their sums add up but we're having to roll
00:46:05.020
over old debt all the time and we're already at the point now where the i i don't know if we have
00:46:11.160
a minister for debt but if we do he would have the biggest department in the government i wouldn't
00:46:15.060
want to be that guy yeah but as you can see the labor party has a process for challenging a leader
00:46:19.620
and that has not been triggered oh that's an interesting statement it's that is so starmer
00:46:26.920
the rules technically say whatever it's also so the soft left right we're gonna sign a letter
00:46:35.260
kia asking you there are 86 we want you to leave we'll trigger the process then well we're not
0.98
00:46:40.840
gonna do that like you cowards you absolute cowards yeah you're like you're watching your
0.99
00:46:48.120
party on the road to destruction and you're like well we're gonna have to ask him really nicely
0.99
00:46:52.020
no you could take executive action here there is a mechanism and you didn't so you've got the
00:46:57.360
numbers yeah you've got the numbers and so starma's just like no i don't care right so starma's like
00:47:01.720
no i'm not resigning no no leadership challenge has been triggered so ministers looking glum
00:47:07.520
entering number 10 they're just like what are we going to do no you're you're you are not lions
0.94
00:47:11.900
right you do not have the balls to step forward uh and so starma is basically just taking them on
0.97
00:47:17.140
a death march at this point like he's just marching on a baton death march for his own party
0.99
00:47:23.240
and he doesn't care it's like that meme of the of the tram coming across the track with all the
00:47:28.420
bodies on the track you can stop at any time but no it's just you're a labor minister you're on
00:47:33.480
the track you can stand up at any time all it takes is one of you to stand up and actually
00:47:39.480
trigger the challenge yes and yet nothing's happening god they're such wimps it's so bizarre
00:47:46.360
the soft left is so i mean genuinely soft well if this was a tories i mean we'd already be through
00:47:51.560
three prime ministers by now exactly would have would have happened over and over and over we've
00:47:55.640
probably been a general election um but yeah so star was basically taking his partner in death
00:48:00.780
march because they're too cowardly to do anything about this uh and so what happened with say uh
00:48:06.800
west streeting uh nothing actually uh west streeting went into the cabinet meeting apparently
00:48:11.740
um completely cucked uh where is it like there was a lot of people apparently um like side-eyeing
00:48:20.040
each other but starmer didn't bring any of it up at all right there was no challenge from west
00:48:24.680
streetings to sam coach from sky a number of cabinet ministers catching each other's eyes
00:48:29.120
as he was speaking but starmer said that he won't discuss the elections or his leadership
00:48:32.900
and he'll only speak to cabinet ministers about that individually and we're going to carry on
00:48:36.600
with the agenda come on so we're streeting bottled it absolutely bottled it like absolutely
00:48:44.960
cucked unbelievable i mean we we can't we can't be too harsh because remember if any of these men
00:48:52.540
had higher testosterone levels they wouldn't be on the left to begin with yeah i mean so by virtue
00:48:58.360
of the fact that they're wimps also means they're on the left which means you just but it also means
00:49:04.020
because remember starmer purged the sort of um the the secure left out of his uh party as much
00:49:12.060
as he could and marginalize them right so john mcdonald may well win in his own seat you know
00:49:16.280
clive lewis may well win in his own seat diane abbott may well win in her own seat but they're
00:49:20.440
nowhere near the government he's got this the you know the the 300 brand new faces and people like
00:49:27.020
west street who won their majority of 500 votes and are going to lose the next election so if
00:49:33.000
we're streeting sat there it was like no right that's it starmer cards on the table i'm triggering
00:49:37.500
it let's go for it summer could be like right i'm just gonna ask the king to call an election then
00:49:40.760
and you're out forever i mean it's like starmer's probably gonna lose his seat too but he'd have a
00:49:46.480
better chance than we're streeting so it's just it's just brutal absolutely brutal right the the
00:49:53.940
people in the low party have got no balls and uh as jesse was resigned um no one's no one's he's
0.90
00:50:02.120
he's just chad ignoring them he literally set them all around the cabinet office and just stared them
0.97
00:50:08.940
all down and was like no this is what's going to happen can we discuss the leadership no we can't
00:50:13.760
in in a party full of wimps yeah yeah exactly we're going to talk about the iran war and the
00:50:19.260
straitful moves and they're like really is that like what's going on with that probably not that
0.84
00:50:22.780
much at the moment right so absolutely nothing so let's talk about andy burnham right andy burnham
00:50:30.760
who starmer has already kept out of the limelight by preventing him from running sabotaged him once
00:50:36.600
yeah he's already sabotaged him once he's apparently arrived in london like lenin
00:50:40.820
traveling to moscow on the train right grant ayatollah khamenei has arrived in iran yeah
00:50:46.120
exactly like this there's so many he was seen arriving at london euston station while keir
00:50:51.880
starmer fights for his life but the thing is keir starmer is in a much stronger position than andy
00:50:55.700
burnham because andy burnham isn't an mp and andy burnham isn't an mp because kia starmer prevented
00:51:00.760
it like sorry i've already checkmated this this chess piece you're moving to get me you can't do
00:51:07.840
that he's gone to meet with various allies uh like angela rayner and various others um because
00:51:14.800
he says quote uh an insider source close to him says quote he has he's got a seat secured in
00:51:21.920
greater manchester so someone in greater manchester is prepared to stand down for the good of the
00:51:26.760
party for the good of andy burnham for andy burnham to win it now andy burnham is relatively popular
00:51:34.200
by far the most popular labour mp but but right by relatively popular what we mean is we can't
00:51:40.920
automatically assume that either reform or greens are going to win that seat that labour might have
00:51:46.580
a chance yeah but they probably don't well so he's got uh 34 approval rating from all people
00:51:55.540
that's because 36 don't know who he is so it it's not bad and it's not you know it's it's it's as
00:52:04.760
good as labor ever gonna get right no one in labor is more popular than andy burnham but that's not
00:52:09.400
saying much because most people just don't know okay so so it has to be a manchester seat because
00:52:13.960
he's from manchester and he's got the name recognition in manchester he's most credible
00:52:18.180
in manchester right and when it can't be a manchester seat with too many students
00:52:22.640
otherwise they vote green it can't be a manchester seat with too many immigrants
00:52:26.000
because they vote green it can't be with too many old manchurians because they vote reform
00:52:31.800
you're narrowing it down quite a lot because what's interesting is in the local elections
00:52:41.020
oh that's an interesting i don't know yeah uh in the area in the area that uh led to the
00:52:50.780
quoting from this in the area that led to the resignation of mp andrew gwynn that led to the
00:52:54.800
by-election which saw the green party win their fifth seat reform uk won 18 of the 19 seats up
00:53:01.040
for election oh now that tells us a lot doesn't it well yeah i mean purely mechanicalistically
1.00
00:53:08.520
um you you can get the muslim vote out for a by-election but they really can't be bothered
1.00
00:53:13.820
with local elections it tells you that the white um the white proportion of um it's still two-thirds
0.99
00:53:21.960
white british yep but they were pretty pissed off and and they were asserting themselves yeah
00:53:27.540
yeah exactly they didn't come out for matt goodwin yeah yeah wonder why um yeah that's that's not
00:53:33.600
strong for like labor it's terrible if you had told me that labor had won 18 out of the 19 i'd
00:53:40.600
be like oh yeah yeah sense uh bandy burnham just needs to do blah blah blah and then he'd be and
00:53:45.360
in any other time or place yeah it would have been guaranteed that it would have been labor
00:53:49.200
but no reform won 18 of the 19 seats according to um itv and so it shows that not only did matt
00:53:56.640
goodwin miscarry his campaign well yeah an mp but everyone isn't he so but it also means there are
00:54:03.500
no real safe seats in manchester for labor yeah i mean um here's the greater manchester vote share
00:54:09.800
as of may 2026 in the local elections well reform got 234 000 labor got 177 000
00:54:17.820
so and the greens got 147 000 so sorry if you're andy burnham are you sure you've got a safe seat
00:54:26.140
in manchester are you really that sure that you don't have a bunch of uh you know chad patriots
00:54:33.980
who are sick and tired of the labor party and a bunch of foreigners who are going over to the
00:54:38.580
green party and you're still soft left which is the biggest faction within the labor parliamentary
0.73
00:54:43.800
party yes but it's still only like 35 of the labor party is soft left so are the other 65
00:54:51.300
percent just going to sit there twiddling their thumbs while you try and get back into parliament
0.68
00:54:55.660
to head up the biggest faction because you know the blue labor are going to be doing their thing
00:55:01.300
hard left are going to be doing their thing the blair rights under west street are going to be
0.64
00:55:04.660
doing their thing it's a lot of ducks you've got to line up for this shot to do it exactly if if i
00:55:13.000
was like yeah i've got i've got to get back into parliament yeah i mean i'm not saying he should
00:55:17.400
go somewhere other than manchester obviously um because why why would that succeed in any way
00:55:23.160
shape or form but it just doesn't look like manchester's a sure thing no at all i mean
00:55:29.020
labor just with the bleeding their vote to reform the greens hugely heavily just stuck in both sides
00:55:37.160
pouring out blood yes well yeah you would have to get really quite lucky i think actually to find a
00:55:43.060
really secure uh place and okay so let's assume that you do trigger a by-election well what if
00:55:49.160
zach polanski runs in it yeah what if zach polanski's like all right no we've got quite a
00:55:54.120
lot of muslims and students there i'm gonna go for it what if zia yusuf went for i don't know
00:55:58.840
whoever like some bright who would reform send i can only think of zia yusuf off the top of my head
00:56:06.760
but let's assume they don't send matt goodwin and someone who's who's actually let's assume
00:56:11.540
they actually want to try and win this one yeah let's assume they actually want to try and win it
00:56:14.180
right uh pretty much any constituency in manchester is basically potentially winnable
00:56:19.600
for reform with those sorts of numbers oh yeah it's just like if reform had a very active campaign
00:56:25.560
and polanski had a very active campaign it's entirely entirely likely that one of them wins
00:56:31.260
and labor comes third like they did in gorton and denton and he's just given up being mayor of
00:56:35.820
manchester for nothing for two more years to try and save the labor party and fails right and his
00:56:42.840
faction isn't even a majority so yeah so keir starmer with his phenomenal unpopularity has
00:56:48.940
checkmated andy burnham again like he's just chad keir summer like it's just crazy how he's mogging
00:56:55.800
everyone right everyone's looking at themselves and like word street and tried to see keir starmer
00:57:00.800
after the cabinet and starmer just refused like i'll talk to everyone individually where street
00:57:05.100
is like can i speak to you no he's just mocking them completely and there's nothing they can do
00:57:10.680
about it and the thing is probably for the best right this is what it would look like if west
00:57:21.280
raj would actually get his majority when uh you gov poll people saying if west streeting was
00:57:32.740
prime minister how would you vote in the 2029 general election and people are just like no
00:57:37.360
that's a thumbs down from me bro and i don't i don't hate this because both the conservatives
00:57:41.520
and labor get properly crucifixed i mean yeah i i could tolerate a farage prime ministership
00:57:47.740
if it meant destroying labor and the tories like this yeah i could tolerate it now i don't think
00:57:52.200
that's gonna happen i mean you can see great yarmouth is still the dark blue blob
00:57:55.500
yes uh you know absolute holdout because we're streeting he's blairite and that has i mean that
00:58:02.120
blairism was blairism with a weak chin that's what he is yes like he's without the political
00:58:08.200
skill and machination exactly but blairism went out of favor 20 years ago exactly no one wants
00:58:13.500
everyone can tell this is the problem yeah i would rather something else and so you've got like um
00:58:18.460
the government favorability down to 14 percent like it just can't get any worse well i mean i
00:58:24.260
guess theoretically it can get 14 points worse yes and so unsurprisingly west street and just
00:58:30.120
bottled it right he just bottled it um i'm as kevin scofield a mirror uh editor says i'm told
00:58:36.720
any burden does not plan to say anything publicly about his leadership plans unless everything
00:58:41.040
kicks off uh he ain't doing the kicking off says one supporter one mp says can't believe wes is
0.62
00:58:45.980
bottling it if he doesn't go this time he's done as a political force coward right absolute weak
0.96
00:58:50.940
chinned cucked completely chad giga chad keir starmer goes out and just like i'm not talking
0.93
00:58:56.900
to you i'm gonna do a like you haven't leveled challenge therefore i think it's going to like
00:59:01.420
an owl sanctuary or something this afternoon just to just to look at some owls or something it's
00:59:05.500
just like what is happening there was that labor policy but they accidentally tweeted out a couple
00:59:11.180
of years ago which is everybody gets a free owl so maybe yeah yeah that was the tweet everybody
00:59:17.740
gets a free owl and and so maybe that's what keir starmer is working on maybe but anyway like we've
00:59:22.680
covered previously starmer genuinely thinks he can win the next election uh he is not stepping
00:59:29.060
down so at the time of recording this is the state of play now of course he might tomorrow
00:59:33.240
but to be honest with you i don't think he's going to yeah i think he's got it sewn up with
00:59:38.340
these newbie mps i think the people challenging him are piss weak he's already checkmate andy
00:59:44.540
burnham none of them are putting their name forward for everyone to get behind them yes
00:59:48.140
there's no way of getting rid of him oh i don't know i mean i've just refreshed for the news feed
00:59:54.040
no he has not resigned but now we're up to 90 mps according of him to resign
01:00:00.080
i mean this is kind of but more than 100 are like don't resign because we need you for our jobs
01:00:07.860
it's just okay well i don't know but this is great kirsten was taking the labor party down with
01:00:14.680
it's so amazing he's got a job to do the british public elected me and i will be here until 2029
01:00:22.120
then i'll fight the next election brilliant oh no he's been telling people he wants another 10
01:00:25.520
years i know i know and honestly i just couldn't couldn't have asked for more i couldn't have
01:00:30.240
asked what there is no greater hero to the right at the moment than keir starmer the starminator
01:00:35.920
so can he really ride the ship when it is literally disintegrating under him it's because
01:00:42.680
the the ones the the 300 odd new ones absolutely need him they need him they can't get away from
0.96
01:00:51.260
him he has this stitched up like i've been saying and so they just they haven't got the balls to be
01:00:56.120
like right we're gonna have the challenge because the thing is they might even lose the challenge
01:00:59.500
if there's an internal vote and the membership votes for starma yeah like because starma can
01:01:06.780
make the argument look there basically isn't going to be another and he would run as well
01:01:10.280
he already said he would but he'll fight it and he's already said look we you know labor
01:01:15.240
governments don't come around often which is code for we're never getting in again right so we've
01:01:19.980
got to do what we think needs to be done now we've got three years to inflict as much damage as we
01:01:24.720
possibly can be so we might be and and like we've said previously like who would you want to replace
01:01:30.580
him with my god everyone in labor is useless and unpopular and like the best you've got is
01:01:36.560
Andy Burnham and Storm's already squished him like a bug so I don't think he's going and I mean
01:01:43.260
hey this might end this might age really really badly because remember this is we're being by the
01:01:49.000
day you get this we recorded it the day before uh and in that time he might have come to his senses
01:01:54.660
and decided my tenor might be safe but I'm not feeling good about this I'm just saying I don't
01:02:01.820
think he's gonna so anyway this this is what i think is what the local results have shown us
01:02:07.500
actually uh the labor party's on hiding nothing reform are on the decline and there was one
01:02:12.700
true standout success story and that was restore britain