The Lotus Eaters are joined by Stelios and Josh to discuss the use of the word 'retarded' as a pejorative term for people with a low IQ. They discuss the pros and cons of the term and how it can be rehabilitated.
00:08:38.400But we would lose so much of the poetry of the English language if we got rid of them.
00:08:41.360Who decided this? Who said that we're not allowed to?
00:08:43.320Well, anything that is ableist. So any word that has a clinical background that has now become colloquially pejorative is bad because it mocks people with disabilities.
00:08:57.120Which it doesn't, by the way, because I think 99% of all people, particularly people who use these words, don't want to mock those people because it's seen as very mean, which it is.
00:09:08.000And this has even made its way into sort of YouTube terms of service and stuff like that, isn't it?
00:09:34.480So basically, there are a few things here that I thought were interesting.
00:09:38.000She starts off by saying around 15 years ago, a new campaign took off across young social media, these young social media ecosystem.
00:09:45.400People with learning disabilities and intellectual disorders were asking everyone else to stop using the R word to describe them or even to make jokes.
00:09:52.920But it's not. No one ever uses it to mean them because that's mean.
00:09:56.980Right. Everyone understands that that's unnecessary and uncouth pointing out to someone, you know, their problems.
00:10:05.980You might not have problems. You might just belong to a group that has a different bell curve.
00:10:10.860But point being that it's sort of being falsely equivalent, you know, falsely attributed to these people when that's not what people mean when they use them.
00:10:21.380But someone did say something that I did agree with.
00:10:23.920Apparently, the linguist Caitlin Green says, what you're doing when you use a slur is you're telling people in your audience, this is the kind of person I am.
00:10:33.600And this is the kind of attitude I have towards the normies that don't use that word, which is kind of true, isn't it?
00:11:39.480So there have been a repeated number of articles talking about it making a comeback, which I find interesting because I imagine that they're not all going to be talking about it without just cause, right?
00:11:50.000Particularly when it's sort of a topic like this.
00:11:53.880And so what it suggests is that if a word enters woke purgatory, it can come back.
00:11:59.860And if we look at how it's come back and why it's come back, then perhaps other things can be rehabilitated as well.
00:22:35.260And anyway, there are articles like this, just basically calling her stupid, which, of course, as we know, is one of the woke words that are okay.
00:22:46.040But the fact that this is being said is catastrophic.
00:22:49.320She's too stupid to do most jobs, let alone president.
00:22:54.080And it's also interesting that Trump comes out, calls her the R word, and then loads of media outlets are just like, yes, of course she is.
00:23:01.740And it's also worth mentioning as well that she can't claim the moral high ground here because, as the Daily Mail reported, in 2019, she had to apologize for laughing when a man in New Hampshire described Trump as mentally R worded and claims she hadn't heard the words he used in that moment.
00:23:19.640By the way, the chat is claiming that Trump has agreed to go on Rogan, which I hadn't heard.
00:23:50.400But my point here is that it's interesting to see things sort of reversing a little bit and that language can indeed become acceptable again.
00:24:00.780And although I don't think you should use it liberally, I think have a bit of class and a bit of taste.
00:24:08.580It's heartening to know that once something becomes off limits, it doesn't always have to be.
00:55:07.740But, you know, there's a robot playing with your children and wiping the table.
00:55:12.220I mean, I might do a bit of that and the old bit of, you know, handing out drinks.
00:55:16.200So, anyway, that's their vision of what they're trying to do.
00:55:19.840Now, so actually the main thing that I want to focus on is I'm less interested in what has happened here.
00:55:27.720What I'm far more interested in is here is what is going to happen as a result of this.
00:55:34.500So, I'm kind of looking for the second and third order effects.
00:55:38.340Well, you're going to need a lot less low-skilled people if, you know, America's going to need a lot less Mexicans if they can create robot Mexicans.
00:55:48.480I hadn't thought about it from the Mexican angle.
00:55:52.060But, yes, well, certainly it has a huge impact on the need for mass immigration.
00:57:11.940When you've got the internet, that enabled things like, you know, Google and Facebook and so on.
00:57:17.120You know, very disruptive industries that, again, allow other industries to die, new ones to sort of emerge in its place.
00:57:24.780And these all become, well, the ones I've mentioned so far, they're all trillion-dollar companies.
00:57:28.940Smartphones, it might not have been obvious when you first got them and I think more people listening might have experienced that in their lifetime
00:57:38.180when we kind of went from, you know, well, first of all, the wall-tied phones to then the dumb Nokias to then the smartphones.
00:57:47.520And I bet a lot of people didn't look at it at the time when it first started to emerge and think, okay, well, this will cause an incel crisis.
00:57:53.320But that is exactly what it did because the third...
00:57:57.300Well, I don't think it's just mobile phones and nothing else.
00:58:02.340Well, I think it's a strong driver because the second...
01:00:28.600There's something called Wright's Law, which applies to manufacturing, which does seem to hold.
01:00:32.820And it's held over, you know, well over 100 years at this point, where if you get a cumulative doubling, you get a certain percentage increase based on the industry.
01:00:41.520And for cars, it seems to be about 15%.
01:00:43.300So for every cumulative doubling, you get a 15% cost reduction in whatever it takes to produce it.
01:00:48.100Now, getting a cumulative doubling of regular cars at this point to get the next 15% saving is incredibly hard because there's like 4 billion cars out there.
01:00:59.060So if you want to... And it's not just a cumulative doubling of the ones that are out there now.
01:01:03.380It's a cumulative doubling of all the ones that have ever been produced.
01:01:08.300You've then got to produce another 10 billion cars in order to recognize the next 15% of savings.
01:01:13.520Whereas of electric cars, they appear to be on their own right curve, meaning that, you know, if there's a couple of million out there, you've just got to produce a couple million more to then get another 15% cost reduction on it.
01:01:22.420So traditional autos is an obvious one, which I think are going to get cleared away by this.
01:05:16.180I do a decent amount of online shopping, but, you know, for food, I never buy shoes online
01:05:21.740because you can never know how to fit.
01:05:23.780There are some things that you've got to go in person and buy.
01:05:26.560So, this food stuff is one of the things I'm coming to, but, you know, basically what I'm saying is you have to recognize when there's a new technology that comes along which is going to disrupt and make certain old industries go away and change and create the opportunity for a workflow process which can operate at scale based on this new technology.
01:05:45.140And then if you invest in that thing, so if you had invested in Microsoft when the PC first came out, you would have made an awful lot of money.
01:05:52.700If you had invested in Amazon, you know, when the internet first came out, you would have made a ridiculous amount of money.
01:05:59.260Same with, you know, Uber, you know, or Facebook.
01:06:03.960I mean, all of these companies, there was a significant opportunity that emerged.
01:06:07.220And I am pretty certain that this is going to be a technology of the same impact as those things, which means that there's going to be disrupted industries,
01:06:17.780which means that you need to be on the lookout for what are the companies that are going to benefit from this.
01:06:22.500And in order to do that, you need to understand what are the workflows that are going to be disrupted and the new ones that can emerge.
01:06:28.320What is the profile of the company that you're looking for so that when you see it, you recognize it.
01:07:16.800So I've done some thinking on this and I've kind of beaten down the profile of what it is that I'm going to be looking for.
01:07:22.460So, for example, with groceries and household supplies, I'm less inclined to believe that your robot butler will go down to the shops with you,
01:07:29.940a shopping bag and do your shopping for you and then come back and then cook it for you.
01:07:36.340I think what's more likely is what you're going to get is you will get the – I mean, it can do – so it can do that.
01:07:47.280It can do infantry management, for example.
01:07:49.500So this would be the unclever end of what I'm going for here.
01:07:54.360The unclever end is that it can just see what you've got and then a company will emerge which will offer inventory management,
01:08:02.360which will probably be run through whatever home AI system you have.
01:08:05.520So it would be something like, you know, you open the app and it says, you know,
01:08:10.720do you want to start from a blank slate and specify what your home shopping requirements are
01:08:17.300or the robot can basically do an infantry of what you've got and monitor it for a couple of weeks and see what your usage is
01:08:24.460and then the app will just say, okay, we think that these are the things that you want and you can sort of tailor it or something.
01:08:31.880So basically taking as much friction away from the online shopping experience as possible to kind of rotorise it.
01:08:38.940So, for example, if I had a robot butler, I'd be like, under no circumstances are we to ever have less than 10 Asahi beers in my beer fridge.
01:09:01.880So inventory management, but then where I think the robot will come in is that things like –
01:09:08.640the reason why online shopping at the moment is a hassle and a lot of people can't really be bothered with it
01:09:14.060is because there's too much friction, too many clicks, and then actually even if you then do it,
01:09:21.260you've then got to be disrupted by when somebody turns up, which you have to kind of do in the evening.
01:09:26.640So it disrupts your evening as well and then sort of unload all the boxes and you've got stuff all over the floor because they just don't put it in bags even.
01:09:36.600They just throw the bloody stuff at you in these crates.
01:09:39.260With a robot service, not only can you use the inventory management type system there, but the robot, of course, can just take that delivery when you're not around.
01:09:50.080So, you know, while you're at work or overnight, the delivery can turn up, it can take the delivery, and then it can put it all away for you.
01:09:57.440So the online shopping experience goes from being something with a lot of friction to something with minimal friction.
01:10:02.140And, you know, the first you know about it is when you open the fridge to see that you are now back at 10 acai beers.
01:10:09.500So it'd be a good time to invest in alcohol treatment then, you know, alcohol addiction treatment.
01:10:18.620Yes, that could possibly be a good third order effect.
01:10:22.120On food preparation, I don't think it's going to be that thing where you, like in the movies, with a robot cutting really fast and then preparing your meal.
01:10:30.360I think what it's going to enable is the outsourcing of food on scale.
01:10:39.860So what I'm envisaging here is that the robot will receive a meal kit, which it will unpackage, and it will be compartmentalized in such a way that it is very easy for it to produce a very high-quality meal from the sort of package kit that it gets in.
01:10:54.140And so what that will drive is sort of customizable meal planning and the adoption of meal kit subscriptions.
01:11:03.920One way it can go is you could have a kind of network model like what you see in Uber, which is you can have a whole bunch of sort of kitchens emerge in your local area who produce, instead of producing really good meals for themselves, they do it at some sort of scale.
01:11:22.400So they produce like 10 or 50 versions of what they're doing.
01:11:27.020And then you can sort of log on and you can say, yes, I want one of those or something.
01:11:30.380And then the network model with the autonomous robots and maybe even the drones and the robots will be able to deliver out versions of this at much greater scale than it's possible now.
01:11:41.040So it would be much cheaper than a current takeaway model.
01:12:06.940Because you would just have your robot, you would just select what you want and then it would turn up very quickly from a local produced hub and your robot would bring it in and lay it out or something like that and then sort of clear it away for you.
01:12:18.100But that would also, talking from my sort of tinfoil hat libertarian background, wouldn't that then give the government so much power over your ordinary person that you wouldn't even be able to cook for yourself potentially?
01:12:33.940You don't even have the means of cooking for yourself.
01:12:36.360So if you're a naughty state dissident, they can just kick you off of the platform and then you starve.
01:12:42.720So, yes, I'm not saying that these trends are necessarily good, but we have gone down the route of greater convenience and less friction with online subscription services to various things.
01:12:53.220So I just think these trends are going to continue.
01:12:54.840So I'm not making a commentary here on what I think is desirable.
01:13:17.000But imagine how much more convenient it would be to communicate with your robot butler if you had a chip in your brain where you could just will stuff and it will do stuff for you.
01:13:26.600Imagine the possibility of the government taking advantage of this.
01:13:33.300So, again, I'm not saying this is necessary.
01:13:34.960The other way that the food thing can go is you could get, like, an Amazon-like, I mean, it might even be Amazon, but an Amazon-like provider who does the food subscription things at bulk.
01:13:45.120And actually, the guy who set up Uber is now doing exactly that.
01:13:56.120So, they have hubs of chefs producing a whole bunch of things.
01:13:59.780It goes in a sort of standardized package and then it's ready to ship out.
01:14:03.000And it doesn't really – I don't think it's going to work just yet.
01:14:05.900But when you've got a robot who can sort of take delivery of it, you know, very frictionlessly, because, of course, when the robo-taxi with the sort of the delivery drone is turning up,
01:14:15.060it can sort of ping ahead to your robot and make sure that it's met.
01:14:21.080Well, it could be in constant communication with the robot.
01:14:23.940It's not like a – you know, it's almost – it would be the equivalent of your delivery driver being on the phone to you the whole time, wouldn't it?
01:14:30.320And so, your robot could perfectly time its schedule around the delivery.
01:14:52.200You just won't have a washing machine and a tumble dryer at all.
01:14:55.060You just won't have any laundry in your room.
01:14:56.620What you'll have is you'll have, like, a bin that you put your laundry in before you go to bed.
01:15:01.420And overnight, the robot will take that, bag it up, and a robo-taxi will pull up out – or a robo-bus will turn up outside.
01:15:09.100Hand it over, it will go off to some – a laundry hub in the area, and then come back at, say, 5 a.m., freshly, you know, washed and pressed.
01:15:18.220And the robot – so, from your perspective, you just – you dump the stuff in the laundry bin before you go to bed, and you wake up in the morning, and there's a tray of fresh laundry waiting for you.
01:15:29.380So, that's going to be very significant as well, because, of course, a lot of these things are operating under the economy of scale.
01:15:35.800And so, if we're looking at the human race as a whole, just from the implications of this, we're going to be using our resources very efficiently compared to now if we adopt this model.
01:15:48.500Because, of course, these big industrial washing machines are much more efficient than every person individually having a washing machine.
01:15:56.440Yes. So, what I'm building on here – and, again, I'm not giving a commentary on whether this is desirable or not – but there definitely is a trend to better –
01:16:05.100so, you've got to understand that Amazon is not a shop. Amazon is a logistics company.
01:16:09.020The reason they are one of the biggest companies in the world, if not the biggest of them, they're very close to it, is because they have nailed their logistics.
01:16:15.380The reason some of the biggest companies, like Netflix, for example, they are that because they have nailed the subscription model.
01:16:22.360And what I'm saying is these trends have clearly demonstrated that that is the way the market is going, this way that human nature responds to,
01:16:30.260and therefore there is necessarily no reason to believe that the future investment opportunities won't be based on the same underlying principles.
01:16:36.920So, it's then what does the technology enable, which is all of this.
01:16:39.720So, laundry, that's one. Package delivery. So, at the moment, you get – you know, you go on Amazon and something's delivered in a cardboard box,
01:16:47.420and it's a bit inconvenient because, you know, you either have to be in or it might get stolen if you live in America off your porch.
01:16:55.980There are lots of waste packaging goes into this.
01:17:00.560And Amazon have been working on things like delivery drones, but they can't quite make it work because, you know,
01:17:06.300who wants to be, you know, answer their front door to find a little mini helicopter buzzing in front of their face?
01:17:12.460But, again, if you're in synced with a robot, you know, the delivery drone can come over and it can query the five or six robots that it's got a delivery to make to,
01:17:22.860and it can say, okay, which of you is available?
01:17:24.500And one of them will say, oh, I'm walking the dog at the moment, and the other one will say, yeah, I'm in a charging cycle, you know, give me 10 minutes.
01:17:29.000And another one will say, yeah, I'm available now.
01:17:31.280You know, he can just walk outside, put his hand up, and the drone gives him the package straight away.
01:17:35.740So there's, again, minimum friction on all of this, which speeds it up, which lowers cost.
01:17:40.520And you can then get into more durable packaging as well, rather than having a bunch of cardboard boxes all the time,
01:17:45.220because the drone can very easily, you know, return the packages the next time, because friction has been removed.
01:17:50.080So your delivery process goes from you order something on Amazon and you get it late the next day or the following day,
01:17:57.260to you order something and in a few hours it's there, and you don't have any waste packaging to deal with.
01:18:01.980So there's a whole bunch of stuff like that.
01:18:03.500Medical subscriptions, again, if you know the principle of what I'm describing here, you'll see how this works.
01:18:08.500So basically what I'm describing is there will be downstream companies that emerge that fulfill this criteria,
01:18:14.460which is basically logistics and subscription-based, so that when you see these companies emerge and you feel that it fits into this space,
01:18:21.600but you need a mental model of what the trends are that are going on at the moment, what the enabling technology is.
01:18:28.980It was the PC, then it was the internet, and then it was smartphones, and now it's going to be robotics.
01:18:34.480And if you identify in your mind what it is that you're looking for, when these companies emerge,
01:18:38.200you know to invest in them at an early stage, and it will make you an extraordinary amount of money if you do this right.
01:18:44.100I think I put gardening robots on here, because I don't think your robot's going to be mowing your lawn either.
01:18:50.860You might have a dedicated little robot thing, and they already exist.
01:18:53.640They're not very good at the moment, but it will be that sort of stuff.
01:18:56.940And basically what I'm envisaging is that the robots, I don't think they're even going to work on human schedules.
01:19:03.100I think they're going to have their own schedules, and actually what I envisage in the future is that the knights belong to the robots.
01:19:12.300So I don't even think that when you're at home, the robot is going to be particularly visible.
01:19:17.280You know, that's when it might be on its charging cycle.
01:19:20.960What's going to happen is as soon as everybody goes to bed, this is when all the laundry robo-vans come out.
01:19:33.340Yeah, but I mean, I don't know if the lawnmower is the thing to look for, because it gives a perfect opportunity to people to just be a lawn by themselves a bit.
01:19:44.580Well, I suppose you can mow your lawn if you want to.
01:19:46.500Yeah, if there's a lot of moaning inside the house, it's okay, I'll take a break.
01:19:50.120On the topic of a lot of moaning, actually, it could potentially, the dawn of robots, put a lot of prostitutes out of business.
01:20:00.220Okay, I hadn't envisaged, why is that?
01:21:08.620Not looking forward to your weekend jobs.
01:21:10.660But in 2035, once you've got your robot, you get back from work, you dump your clothes in the laundry bin.
01:21:16.740You don't have to worry about anything.
01:21:17.940You don't have to take the bins out because they've already been done.
01:21:20.580You realize you don't need to shop because, you know, you just selected something from the app and the robot will deal with it and just serve you up a plate of hot food.
01:21:27.980You can then sit down and enjoy podcast of the Lotus Eaters with a crisp cold beer because your robot had done the inventory management for you.
01:21:36.060You get two hours of hell divers anyway because you didn't have to go shopping.
01:22:18.560Says jokes aside, for the robots to work as intended, as Dan suggests, they need to be very advanced AI.
01:22:23.520Yeah, but that's the point that I'm making.
01:22:26.480So everything that I've done there has moved the bulk of the work to external workflows,
01:22:33.300which are based on logistics management and subscription services.
01:22:36.920So actually, all the robot needs to do is basically take laundry from a bucket out to a van and then bring a fresh pressed tray back.
01:22:46.240So actually, the robots can do that today.
01:22:49.080So I'm not assuming advanced AI in that.
01:22:52.360And the same with a lot of those processes.
01:22:53.860Like the food, if you want your robot to cook a meal from, you know, skinning an onion and doing all the rest of it and mixing the spices, that is advanced AI.
01:23:02.340If it's handling a prepackaged kit from an Amazon-like food provider, the amount of work on it is significantly reduced.
01:23:10.920So, yeah, I have thought about this quite a lot.
01:23:13.280That's a random name says, oh, no, that's, oh, yes, that's a random name.
01:23:18.540Also says, also, this entire model is based on a society where their technology is ubiquitous and universal.
01:23:24.420How exactly would that get implemented and who would pay for it genuinely curious?
01:23:28.200Well, no, people will just adopt it because you'll get you'll get an adoption curve of people who like the smartphones.
01:23:33.120There was a few people at the beginning who had smartphones, but not a lot.
01:23:35.700And then more and more people kind of went over to it and then everybody's got one.
01:23:39.980In fact, eventually it'll get to the point whereby you'll actually be impeded for not having one because the culture's moved on so much.
01:26:26.580With the advancement of AI, I am finding it difficult to generally tell apart what is real and what is not.
01:26:33.160Complicate this further with the ability to generate AI imagery, which can be used to alter narratives to such an extent that it's near impossible to tell the difference of seeing what is real and what is not.
01:26:44.660This is kind of made worse with the advancement of AI-generated voice simulation, which is becoming so advanced that it's hard to tell the difference.
01:26:53.140And yeah, we have one real dystopian future ahead of us.
01:27:01.860I'm not a fan of just having a society where we do nothing.
01:27:07.780Yeah, so I've thought about that as well.
01:27:09.800The way that you get around the AI problem is you basically need the good form of digital identity.
01:27:15.100So which is the, I can't remember the name of it, but there is a type of individual-based digital identity that you have where you control the digital ID.
01:27:27.240And then you can attach it to things like messages and other things that are genuinely from you that can be verified that it is from you as opposed to,
01:27:35.360because you don't want some scammer cloning your voice, calling your mother and saying, look, I'm on holiday and I've lost my wallet and you need to transfer me money.
01:27:42.260Well, my parents wouldn't do that even if it was me.
01:31:44.060David Ferugia, if black people can give you an N-word pass, surely I, as someone with an acquired cognitive defect, can give you the TARD card?
01:31:55.020Well, actually, because I've got a master's degree in psychology, I can diagnose someone as retarded.