Captain Darling is joined by Stephen Blackadder and Firas Melchit to discuss whether the conflict in Iran is likely to evolve into a war of regime change, the economic fallout from closing the Strait of Hormuz, and the myth making madness of the Windrush Generation.
00:15:51.520But there are a couple of missing details.
00:15:54.520One, we went from the Americans saying that the nuclear program has been obliterated to them simply saying that it's been severely damaged,
00:16:08.520And if you take it with a little bit of time, we might end up discovering more and more details about what was damaged and what wasn't.
00:16:14.520But part of the problem seems to be that the Iranians were using trucks to move a big bunch of stuff from Furdou before it was struck and possibly to close Furdou with dirt to sort of shut down the tunnels with dirt to preserve the facility.
00:16:39.520And it seems that nobody actually knows where the highly enriched uranium is right now, which is a little bit of a problem.
00:16:49.520The Israelis are saying that they have intelligence on where that enriched uranium is.
00:16:55.520Interesting intelligence, according to Netanyahu.
00:17:05.520And the certainty that the Furdou was actually obliterated won't exist until the International Atomic Energy Agency gets to inspect it,
00:17:18.520which the Iranians obviously won't do because the IAEA makes its findings public and does include obviously a number of Western spies.
00:17:28.520So the Iranians are absolutely not going to allow access to their nuclear facilities.
00:17:33.520So with the missing enriched uranium and the Iranians rather reasonably saying nobody's allowed to come near our nuclear facilities while we're being bombed,
00:17:43.520the argument is going to be made, rightly or wrongly, that the Iranians are building a nuclear weapon.
00:17:49.520Rightly, because that seems like a reasonable thing to do when you're being attacked by a superpower and you want to establish deterrence.
00:17:58.520Wrongly, because we won't actually know anymore.
00:18:01.520Which puts us into that lovely field of political choice that politicians love of the weapons of mass destruction.
00:18:52.520The Israelis started bombing on 13 June with the explicit objective of scuttling these negotiations because that's what Netanyahu has always wanted.
00:19:00.520And then Trump last week said that he's going to give himself two weeks to decide whether or not to attack Iran on 21 June.
00:19:09.520And then on 22 June, he goes ahead and he attacks Iran.
00:20:55.520And these are just the ones that they know about.
00:20:57.520And they don't know where the Israel, they don't, they haven't accounted for all of the
00:21:01.520Israeli drone bases on their territory.
00:21:03.520So they could still get hit quite severely.
00:21:06.520But even though they're in a very difficult position, the possibility of talks has been taken away by Netanyahu's actions and by Trump's follow-up actions.
00:21:19.520And we should be clear about all of this.
00:21:22.520And this isn't in any way a defense of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
00:21:26.520There are a bunch of insane theocrats.
00:21:28.520But it's equally insane to look at the experience of Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria and say we should trust Benjamin Netanyahu because he told us that these were good ideas.
00:21:42.520Yeah, his great ideas led to millions coming into Europe.
00:21:45.520And now we're dealing with grooming gangs in the United Kingdom and the changes of our laws that will lead to an Islamophobia definition coming in that would ban us from being able to discuss it without having to look over our shoulders.
00:21:57.520So the consequences of him trying to defend his nation by destabilizing Middle Eastern countries has led to the whole scale destruction in part of the European continent.
00:22:07.520And if the Iranian regime falls and all of these refugees and political exiles from Iran, well, Israel's not going to want them in Syria or Lebanon or any of its neighboring countries, are they?
00:22:18.520So they're all going to come to Europe.
00:22:26.520And now we've got a whole new load of coming over because we've got ISIS terrorists who were welcoming in our arms and shaking their arms and giving them big hugs despite the fact they've been beheading people for the last 10 or 15 years.
00:22:37.520What lovely individuals were bringing in.
00:22:44.520And so what I wanted to do in this segment was just to explain how these decisions are being made.
00:22:50.520This wasn't a spur of the moment decision where negotiations had failed and where really it became necessary to do a demonstrative strike or something.
00:23:00.520The strikes happened because negotiations could have succeeded.
00:23:05.520And for the Israelis, it was not acceptable to allow the Iranian regime to survive under reduced sanctions and with more inspection of its nuclear program.
00:23:18.520I would have argued that this would have guaranteed regime change in a few years time.
00:23:22.520The supreme leader of Iran, Khamenei, is 85.
00:23:38.520That would have probably brought about the end of the regime through the Iranians own machinations and internal politics.
00:23:45.520Now, Netanyahu has helped resuscitate this regime, guaranteed the destruction of the Iranian economy, guaranteed massive outflows of people that will head into Europe.
00:23:57.520And all of this because he's always had this ideology that we want to take vengeance on these regimes and destroy them.
00:24:20.520And this was decided on much earlier, 25 years ago.
00:24:26.520And they've just killed the possibility of a peaceful settlement.
00:24:31.520Which is more, well, not more palatable, but is something that you can roll your eyes at more if it weren't for the fact that Trump had basically identified himself as the anti-war candidate.
00:24:43.520The anti-continuity for the deep state candidate.
00:24:57.520And do you think when we're looking at this, it's the imperative rather than letting him die over a period of time.
00:25:04.520And the regime would naturally have changed, whether it was another Mueller, whether it was another kind of secular, more secular leader with a little bit more power and influence.
00:25:13.520It's that pressure that's happening in Russia-Ukraine war as well that's bogged down.
00:25:19.520And the Iranian links into there, the kind of fact that they're providing weapons.
00:25:23.520It's keeping the economy of Russia going with the trade that's between the two of them.
00:25:27.520They also see this as a potential opportunity to say we can kill two birds with one stone.
00:25:31.520By having this destabilizing effect, we're having a real impact on Russia too.
00:25:36.520But the reason the Iranians have rubbish air defense is because they didn't trust the Chinese or the Russians to install a full integrated air defense.
00:25:46.520Everything from radars to AWACS to multiple layers of defense, etc.
00:25:56.520So in a sense, everything that is done to weaken Iran and Russia ends up strengthening China and giving China a better hand and more access to Russian resources and Iranian resources.
00:26:06.520I think that's partly what we're going to bring out on that because I was going to say this also enables China.
00:26:11.520One thing that China will do is we know that they're pretty much embedded to a certain extent with the Iranian military.
00:26:18.520They will have been watching how the bombers came across on the scene and they'll be getting valuable intelligence from this in order to protect themselves.
00:26:29.520They may also, in my view, I think this also enhances Taiwan's demise.
00:26:34.520I think China now will move much more quickly because if they, in an embedded war, longer period of time, destabilization, particularly if it required boots on the ground,
00:26:43.520do you not think this is an opportunity for China to say, America's now got a war going on with military there?
00:26:49.520Take ours because it's spreading their opportunities.
00:37:28.520So don't put crazy people in a corner seems to be a wise policy across the board.
00:37:34.520You know, I get the feeling there's big round tables like this with a whole load of, like, warming during...
00:37:41.520And guys thinking this is our great opportunity to once again be like our fathers and grandfathers of the past.
00:37:47.520And look, let's hope that they bomb one of our ships, because if they bomb one of our ships, then we can move everybody else in.
00:37:55.520And that's the sort of war games that's going through their heads.
00:37:58.520And look, just for people who want to read this kind of particular article, it talks about the difference in the crude oil that's being processed as well.
00:38:07.520You know, it's a big impact on Japan and Korea because they require more, 70% here it says, of the processed refinery for Japan and Korea.
00:38:15.520It would decimate Japan and Korea initially because they are so reliant on this particular type of oil, even though they receive less than the Chinese and the Indians.
00:38:25.520But they are one of the bigger players in terms of the overall market.
00:38:29.520And then I look at the implications on tensions to the global economy.
00:38:36.520I've got two I've put up for people here, one 2025 and one 2024.
00:38:42.520This, I think, is the 2025 one, just to make sure.
00:38:47.520I've got, yeah, published four days ago.
00:38:49.520This is actually less phlegmatic about the implication.
00:38:54.520It does talk about the fact we've had a spike recently of $61 to 78p per barrel.
00:38:59.520And I'll come to the implications of what that means on the streets for those from the UK or watching.
00:39:04.520I'm not sure necessarily about the US because you're protected a lot more by your own markets and the national oil kind of security that they provided themselves.
00:39:17.520So this says Iran only has 4% of global oil productions.
00:39:21.520Its monthly exports are only about 1.7 million barrels per day.
00:39:26.520So it has a massive impact on them if they cut it off because it's a big, big earner.
00:39:31.520Big impacts, though, Saudi Arabia and UAE coming through there.
00:39:36.520Looking through this on, that's a little annoying, the shares of global oil down there.
00:39:42.520It goes on to talk about inflation and interest rates here.
00:39:46.520So this is a very shorter one compared to the 2005.
00:39:49.520But they talk about the shocks that will be generated in wage demands, sustained inflationary pressures, monetary policy leading to tightening.
00:39:57.520And we've already had a period of, think of growth in this country, no growth whatsoever.
00:40:37.520And we can certainly do that, absolutely.
00:40:39.520And we've had a little bit of play between, you know, 80 and 90.
00:40:42.520But I just want people to think about the fact that our energy costs are so high now, and yet we're back to the levels of pre-Ukraine in terms of the war.
00:40:53.520And if you look at the bottom of that where we are and bottom there, okay, that's the spike we've had recently, because everyone's worried about it.
00:41:04.520If this spikes up again to 120, 130 or potentially $160, which is referenced in some of the reports that I've been seeing, then we would be absolutely crucified.
00:45:20.520Because he's already saying to the rest of the world, I'm going to ignore the impact on the rest of Europe and the Middle East and Asia,
00:45:26.520because we're now forcing people to actually pay to sell their products to us and therefore increase in the level of income.
00:45:33.520We will get a shock, but we're going to be insulated on the energy shocks because of the way we're dealing with it.
00:45:38.520And by bringing products online, we're now insulating ourselves.
00:45:41.520So that is going back to American first policy.
00:45:44.520In July, the temporary exemptions for the tariffs that were initially announced expire.
00:45:53.520And there haven't been any trade agreements that were signed.
00:45:56.520And so in a very cynical way, the Americans end up with a stronger hand for these agreements if they have access to their own cheap energy and the rest of the world is facing energy chaos.
00:46:44.520Basically, you've handed your sovereignty and your economic lifeblood to the Americans.
00:46:50.520And the Americans have proven that they won't learn from history and from bad military interventions.
00:46:56.520And so long as other people suffer more than they do, this is acceptable.
00:47:01.520So this is a level of cynicism that you just have to be accustomed to the diabolical to be able to think about clearly.
00:47:10.520But it's really frustrating because whenever I go out to the States and you always find sensible heads out there who understand.
00:47:18.520And they were part of the MAGA movement that I met.
00:47:21.520They were part of the individuals who said, yeah, like me, we don't like what's happening in Iran.
00:47:25.520We don't really like what's happening to an extent in Russia.
00:47:28.520But we understand the reason why we're behind the idea of no wars is not to destabilize the economy because Europe is actually struggling heavily.
00:47:36.520And we need to support you by closing the borders in our country, gives you the messages out there, returning freedom of speech book in our countries, returns, helps you in yours.
00:47:44.520But in turn, there's a whole other bunch of Americans who are hidden behind, whether they call it the deep state, whether they call it the military industrial complex, is a cadre of elites out there who really don't like what the MAGA movement is as a whole, just as the anti-European, the European Union mob don't like anyone that's Brexit, who are just happy to say we want to continue with this empire.
00:48:09.520And in a way, the rest of you can go and just find your own route out the way and will ignore you, where this band of real patriotic Americans who understand the importance of working with us are being ignored.
00:48:23.520Where do we see this now with the Trump kind of group?
00:48:27.520Well, the big effect of Trump going into a war with Iran is to discredit the idea of America first and to sort of make the whole MAGA movement, America first movement seem as an impossibility.
00:48:52.520I got a feeling that what they've done is this is the clever movement by the backdoor elites to actually put a puncture hole into the MAGA movement.
00:49:02.520It separates those now who fully understand our side of the argument and those who say, no, we just got to protect Israel and bomb the hell out of Iran come what may.
00:49:11.520And they like that because then that divides it.
00:49:14.520And then it means that the Republican, the GOP have been sat there all along saying we can separate them now.
00:49:19.520And it means that everybody who says I oppose interventions that the Israelis have supported gets cast as an anti-Semite.
00:49:29.520Or gets cast as an Iran apologist or as a Putin apologist or what have you.
00:49:34.520It just provides a lot of additional ammunition for attacking genuine people who want their own people and their own countries placed first above the concerns of bankers, globalists, green energy lunatics, interventionists, etc., etc.
00:50:00.520But then that will entirely just fracture all of the goodwill that Trump's campaign and, you know, Trump's first few months put back into the American system.
00:50:11.520You know, the confidence with voters it put back into the institutions, a number of young men signing up to the military again after, you know, long stagnation.
00:50:21.820And even further than that, it could be even more hazardous for them because if things escalate in Iran and you get regime change, you get America even further drawn into it, then what you're going to end up with is a lot of Americans at home who are now, you know, have fallen off of the MAGA train and actually just don't think democracy is worth it at all.
00:50:45.520And then you've got a core component of, I know it's Republican, you know, it's a constitutional Republican, not a democracy, but you'll get, you know, the idea of voting, you know, and so people will resort eventually to other options as opposed to being drawn into foreign wars over and over again.
00:51:02.060Given the influence of Palantir and given the capabilities of the surveillance state and given that the NSA is spying on everybody and in this country, same dynamics, all over Europe, same dynamics.
00:51:13.880We know that, for example, the French made Telegram give them backdoor access to everything that is happening.
00:51:20.960Yeah, and the pressuring on WhatsApp too.
00:51:23.640So it just means that the surveillance state gets to pick off its enemies and pursue policies that are clearly not in anybody's interests, having pretty much sold all industrial capabilities to the Chinese and destroyed the ability of the West to provide itself with cheap energy.
00:51:43.800It's simply, it's a level of extremism that people can't put their heads around, but it's very materialistic extremism, very hostile extremism, and it lacks any sense of Christian love for your own people.
00:52:00.900The whole idea that the duty of the rulers is towards the ruled, that you are obligated to have care for the people that you're governing, that if you're well-off and God has bestowed upon you great power or great wealth, that leaves you with a larger obligation towards those around you.
00:52:20.800This is completely absent from the minds of people who rule us because they are not Christian.
00:52:35.360But, you know, we will just try and steal and take whatever we can from the people, and every now and again, those who are opposing it, we'll chop them off.
00:52:47.920I'm going to try to whip through looking at the time because there may well be comments and we've got this, but there are some elements about it that we've got to consider in a depth.
00:52:55.560One of those is China, and we talked about China being a very good friend at the moment with Iran, but they will actually have a major impact.
00:53:04.620I think this is one of the points we picked up beforehand is that we've seen that they have a huge amount of importing from the cost of crude oil to them is $503 billion in 2024.
00:53:26.980But this just shows the level of crude oil that's been going to China.
00:53:31.620Then the next one just goes to show, again, that picture that we saw early on but brought up for China, India and Southeast Asia, how it impacts them.
00:53:41.600So, again, China's got a big, big element in this game here.
00:53:44.540And what you have noticed, and I think this is, I'm glad you showed this one to me before we came on air, is I was looking for something to show about the stockpiling later on.
00:54:37.080And if they end up facing the Americans in Taiwan and somehow the Americans blockade Chinese ports, they will need that oil reserve in order to survive.
00:55:15.980Bearing in mind that the kind of whole of the Trump view at the moment is trying to shift products from China,
00:55:23.060a lot of companies have been flowing into India for cheap labor and cheap oil.
00:55:28.120So if they hit that, they reckon it will increase their costs 20%, 25%,
00:55:32.420which are huge for the costs coming across to the rest of us.
00:55:36.280Now, the kind of fly or protective fly in the ointment is that the IEA are estimating that the highest levels of strategic reserves that they've ever done.
00:59:34.180All right, then, ladies and gentlemen.
00:59:36.000So I want to talk about some recent events, of course, because recent events are popular and good, always.
00:59:43.620Never any bad news around here, as there are in Britain.
00:59:45.860But, you know, to go back to a segment that I was talking about last week, in fact.
00:59:52.200So the wonderful thing about England is that in every town and city, you can find some story of its history that is being really important in some way or another.
01:00:05.960And the reason that I bring up Tilbury is because in the English mind, if you mention Tilbury, if you enjoy history, if you're a history buff,
01:00:15.080is that it's where Queen Elizabeth I and her men, she gave a speech at Tilbury.
01:00:42.780However, and, you know, this was obviously in the face of potential of Spanish invasion and the Spanish Armada.
01:00:50.860And so you might think of Tilbury and remember, you know, that great story from English history.
01:00:56.080But there's another story from Tilbury that the establishment wants you to know that is even more important and even greater avenue of myth-making of what England is, what modern Britain is, and who we should be.
01:01:11.300And that, of course, is the fact that it was recently the 77th anniversary of the SS Empire Windrush coming from the Caribbean with many, many Jamaicans and, you know, people from Trinidad and British Guyana.
01:01:26.900And this is just over a period of about 30 years, with this being the beginning, we had what we now call the Windrush generation coming to Britain.
01:01:36.740And this has been basically a day of national celebration for the politicians.
01:01:44.600This marks the new enlightenment into Britain because we were a backwards terrible people until the diversity came, showed us the error of our ways.
01:01:56.980And what true culture, what true cuisine, what true philosophy, all of these things really were.
01:02:04.600I was just looking at that boat and thinking, why did Natasha Irons actually allow that to be gone?
01:02:33.440Today is a day of celebrating the Windrush generation, the first nurses, the first midwives in our NHS, the veterans who returned after fighting for freedom in the Second World War, some coming back to serve again, the construction workers who literally helped build back after the war, the transport staff, the teachers, the shop owners, the cleaners.
01:02:55.860There was a rebuilding of our country and actually shaping what became modern Britain.
01:03:01.200I'm here to make good on the promise that we made.
01:03:04.280We launched the £1.5 million Windrush Compensation Advocacy Support Fund, hugely important to help organisations provide advocacy and support for applicants.
01:03:15.620And I'm delighted that today we announced the new Windrush Commissioner, the Reverend Clive Fostag.
01:03:22.760And we need to be really clear, learn the lessons, so an injustice like that can never happen again.
01:04:14.620So this here, though, but I really want to dwell on this, these two words, because they're proper establishment words, which is just modern Britain.
01:04:24.660Because really what you're looking at here, and the reason that this is trotted out, the reason that you have garden parties at 10 Downing Street like this, the reason that all of this language is used, is because it's essentially the French Revolution of Britain, right?
01:04:39.480What it's trying to do is bring Britain to year zero, right?
01:04:44.040So there is old Britain, the bad, white supremacist, evil Britain of the past.
01:04:49.780And the slave trade globally, these white supremacists, yes.