00:23:28.660They attacked two refineries in Kuwait.
00:23:31.020You had, apparently, the Hezbollah movement in Lebanon attacking a gas processing facility in Ashkelon, in Israel.
00:23:44.320And you had them attack a group of facilities in places like the UAE, in Saudi Arabia.
00:23:54.440And most importantly, they attacked the Yanbar oil refinery on the Red Sea, on the opposite side of Saudi Arabia.
00:24:03.160So, I'm not someone who's been monitoring the situation, because that's your job.
00:24:09.660But what I'm seeing here is, and correct me if I'm wrong, the United States, which Donald Trump said was following Israel's lead and helping Israel and doing what Israel wanted on this,
00:24:22.000to start a war with Iran, killed the leadership, and has been bombing them and whatnot, expecting Iran to capitulate very quickly,
00:24:30.460this has now escalated into a very destructive, destructive of key critical resources that underpin the global economy.
00:25:26.620Yeah, but it's becoming, I think, much clearer that that is the case, and that also it's impossible actually maybe to work with the Israelis in good faith.
00:25:37.840You know, like, you can give them everything they want, and they still want more.
00:28:58.420And the lesson should have been that you're not going to get anywhere by bombing Iran because it's a much larger country with an open supply line to China and to Russia.
00:29:09.380But, no, the Americans decided that they're going to follow the Israelis into this war.
00:29:15.020I think you have to remember as well, actually, you know, that the Israelis have been killing all of Donald Trump's alternative candidates to lead Iran.
00:29:26.140And he's said this on a number of occasions, kind of jokingly, and it's seemed funny.
00:29:30.780But actually, it seems much less funny in light of this as well.
00:29:34.340It's like, actually, what seems to be happening is you are backing the Iranians into a corner and giving them absolutely no possible way out.
00:30:03.580And I don't know what you could, yeah, I mean, what can he say to the Israeli military?
00:30:08.020Well, he can say that I'm going to stop giving you money and stop giving you weapons, but that'll cause a political crisis in the United States.
00:31:51.260And then speaking about winning, I mean, when you see the Iranians pull off this kind of thing, there are several things that become obvious.
00:31:56.740Firstly, the fact that they attacked with such speed and such ferocity means that they've been holding back and precision means that they've been holding back and not attacking these targets, which is something that people don't want to understand.
00:32:13.160The Iranians have other escalation options and they've just demonstrated that they have escalation dominance.
00:32:19.320And they had a lot more missiles than everyone expected, didn't they?
00:32:21.780Well, speaking of that, they are attacking with an increasing frequency, not with a decreasing frequency.
00:32:51.120So they were just continuing with the minimal level required of attacks to keep the shutdown in place.
00:32:58.280Now that they needed to escalate, they were instantly able to escalate.
00:33:02.000Meaning that the talk about having destroyed all of Iran's missiles and 70% of their launch capability and so on and so forth, it's just not true.
00:33:10.540But also there's a question of coordination here.
00:33:12.940So I remember them saying, and we talked about this very briefly before the podcast, well, their strategic command and control had been destroyed.
00:33:19.560If they're still ordering Hezbollah to attack energy assets in the south of Israel, that means that it hasn't been destroyed.
00:33:40.060Maybe, but the organised, like the coordinated strikes on these from Iran's heartland itself would imply that the military structure is still functioning perfectly capably.
00:33:57.540This is still functioning as they intended to function.
00:34:00.680This is still functioning exactly according to commander's intent.
00:34:03.620And so it also means that the air defence systems aren't able to protect these key assets, but these are the assets that would be prioritised in any defence.
00:34:15.680These are second only to the air defence systems themselves.
00:34:21.060And so if you had a choice between intercepting a missile going into a civilian area and intercepting a missile that's going to your key energy facilities, you'd probably defend the energy facilities, not the civilian area.
00:35:23.520But they are using a port that's outside the...
00:35:26.760So they have a port outside Bandar Abbas, like further to the south, to the direction of Shabahar, which they have been exporting some things out of.
00:35:36.240But the majority of exports still go through Hormuz.
00:35:39.240And they're still exporting through Hormuz.
00:35:42.420And they are allowing ships to route via Iranian territory between these Iranian islands to bypass the bits of the Strait that they have mined.
00:35:56.360So now, just before we started the segment, Scott Besant was saying that they might remove sanctions on Iranian oil that is already on the water to relieve the pressure on global markets.
00:36:12.260And obviously, the reason he says that is because of these oil prices.
00:36:15.960And the crude coming out of the Middle East is at $128 to $135, in some cases $150, versus American crude, which is trading around $100, the WTI to indices, versus Brent, which is $113.
00:37:00.140And they're saying that it could go up as high as $250 in a kind of doomsday scenario.
00:37:04.860If the Iranians follow through with their threats and blow up the oil processing facilities, as opposed to just the gas processing facilities that they've already blown up,
00:37:43.020And they've proven that they have escalation dominance because they are willing to go after this stuff.
00:37:48.320Because for them, this is a war for survival.
00:37:50.320And they are no longer in rational mode, they are in martyrdom mode.
00:37:55.600And so they will escalate it as much as they want to, to the extent that, now they're saying they're going to start collecting tolls for any ship that wants to go through the Strait of Hurubus.
00:38:06.680The aspect of martyrdom is something that we haven't touched on before, I think.
00:39:00.540Which goes back to the days of Hussein, the grandson of Muhammad, who went into an incredibly uneven battle with maybe 40, maybe 200 men, maybe whatever, versus an army of thousands.
00:39:13.540They all got slaughtered, fighting heroically.
00:39:17.440And that is the foundation myth of Shia Islam, not the arrival of Muhammad.
00:39:22.840And so what this does is it takes on aspects of sort of Iran war invasion of Afghanistan, where the Americans in their, and not just the Americans, but the Westerners in their naivety thought, well, we'll bring them liberal democracy.
00:39:36.800Because surely, fundamentally, they're universal men just like us, and they will be happy with the liberal democracy.
00:39:53.880Yeah, not anymore, especially not in battle.
00:39:56.260But moreover, the Iranian regime has been there since 1979, and they've known that at some point it's very possible they're going to have a hot conflict with the West.
00:40:05.580In the same way that the Russians had clearly prepared for a long time, so we were not able to judo-flip Vladimir Putin's economy.
00:40:12.800They have been preparing for this, whereas I can't help but feel the Israelis, maybe they've been preparing for it, but the Americans who have been dragged into this with the Israelis have not prepared for it at all.
00:40:24.940And so you have a very deeply entrenched and well-planned-out scenario on one side versus a kind of cavalier, well, we have the strength to pop the leader.
00:40:34.320Why don't we just do it like we did with Maduro?
00:43:41.980But also, so it looks like essentially Trump's only option here is to either engage in a massive national war.
00:43:50.500As in, because I mean, one of the things that modern states, they get away with our wars because we're fighting weak opponents a long way away
00:43:58.680that doesn't have any particular impact on your life.
00:45:13.960He allowed himself to get dragged into it.
00:45:15.840So the moral fault, when, if, if he would say, okay, well, can we have a ceasefire?
00:45:20.560The moral fault would be with the Americans on this.
00:45:23.760Now, this would be a war of choice that is completely unnecessary.
00:45:29.020That doesn't fit any definition of just war theory because there was not in fact an imminent threat.
00:45:34.200The Omanis and the British have both come out and said that there was an agreement that the Iranians had conceded everything.
00:45:42.920So Jonathan Powell, the former chief of staff of Tony Blair and the current national security advisor, attended the talks with Kushner and Witkoff and the Iranians.
00:45:55.340He brought the technical team because the Americans hadn't even brought the technical team to negotiations over the nuclear issue.
00:46:03.020You can't negotiate something as complex as a nuclear treaty without a fully equipped, very experienced expert team.
00:47:08.280You know, Kushner is a major donor to Chabad.
00:47:12.140He gave them $2 million and Chabad are an insane supremacist, quasi-messianic cult.
00:47:21.380And they are the ones who were making the decisions on this because the entire structure of the professional state department was bypassed in these negotiations.
00:47:30.600And so this war has broken out and you ask yourself, why?
00:49:07.880It's the sort of we're backed by the taxpayer mindset that allows the student loan fraud, that allows the global financial crisis fraud, that sort of relies on Western taxpayers one way or the other to, in the end, shoulder the burden.
00:49:22.660But the assumption that, what, American power is essentially unbounded is obviously not true.
00:49:49.940And the Americans are basically going to have to go into a total war national machine mode to get this done, or not do it at all, and essentially retreat from the area.
00:50:02.320And retreat from the Middle East completely.
00:50:03.780Yes, but this is the point, that was the thing, because the idea of chaos is kind of predicated on the fact that there is someone on the other side to be in conflict with.
00:50:13.120However, this wouldn't exactly be an unusual thing that the Persians take over all of the Middle East.
00:50:18.820This has happened many times before, actually.
00:52:02.340And they've revealed themselves not to be a paper tiger in the way that you thought that they were.
00:52:07.260And so, now they're activating a series of long-held plans, and things are actually going badly for the West in the Middle East.
00:52:13.980It seems that the perspective that the American administration had, and I don't mean Trump himself personally, I mean the deep state, the military doctrine in there, seems to have been flawed.
00:52:26.320They think that they've destroyed Iran's ability to launch missiles.
00:52:39.560And the Houthi haven't activated yet, which means that all of the Saudi ports on the Red Sea can be destroyed in one large salvo if these guys decided to go all out.
00:52:51.980As in Iran still has sort of strategic reserves of things that it can do.
00:52:55.740And the Houthi have been recruited, they've recruited half a million men to march in Jerusalem.
00:53:02.660Which means that they have to march through Saudi Arabia.