The Podcast of the Lotus Eaters - The Podcast of the Lotus Eaters #1392

00:00:00.000 hello and welcome to podcast of the lotus eaters it is episode 1392 it is the 8th of april year

00:00:07.260 of our lord 2026 and i'm joined by carl and ferraz hello it's peace day peace is broken out

00:00:14.140 last it will last for a thousand years ah yeah about that no am i being too optimistic yeah i

00:00:26.620 I mean, it didn't last until the beginning of the podcast.

00:00:30.220 We spent the morning preparing.

00:00:31.560 Oh, good. Peace.

00:00:32.340 No.

00:00:34.520 Okay.

00:00:35.760 It's complicated.

00:00:38.900 Right.

00:00:39.480 It's complicated.

00:00:40.160 Why don't you tell us about it?

00:00:41.820 Well, if I have to, but just a bit of framing here,

00:00:45.580 because we've been getting some anger from our MAGA friends,

00:00:50.500 and I want to say a couple of things.

00:00:51.680 i personally grew up in american schools and was educated at the american university of beirut

00:00:59.920 and i've always been pro-american given the alternatives around me i mean it's not hard

00:01:06.160 when your other options are saudi arabia iran and turkey yeah i'll take the americans any day

00:01:11.140 of the week it's really not that difficult um and i think i'm quite anti-iran in general

00:01:18.200 because I'm kind of anti-Islam in general. 1.00

00:01:21.800 I mean, I think it's wrong. 1.00

00:01:24.100 I disagree with all false religions. 1.00

00:01:26.180 That's sort of my standing point here. 1.00

00:01:28.380 And Iran spent a lot of money spreading Islam in the Middle East, right?

00:01:32.000 Shia Islam, particularly. 0.61

00:01:32.780 Well, not just that.

00:01:34.000 The Shia Muslims of Lebanon used to be the backbone of the Lebanese Communist Party, actually. 1.00

00:01:40.040 Oh, brilliant. 1.00

00:01:40.880 And then...

00:01:41.600 Just like in Britain. 0.94

00:01:43.460 And then Iranian influence turned them into demilitant religious zealots.

00:01:47.880 but that wasn't actually the norm.

00:01:50.580 So I have some, you know, problem with that.

00:01:54.580 And the reason I and others, I think,

00:01:58.160 or speaking only for myself,

00:01:59.540 have been quite critical of Trump in this war

00:02:01.500 is because anybody who wants the European right to succeed

00:02:05.900 and the American right to succeed

00:02:07.720 wants Trump to succeed

00:02:09.360 and not waste his political capital

00:02:11.740 in another Middle Eastern adventure, essentially.

00:02:15.500 because i think everybody here knows that um if the united states ends up with a democratic

00:02:22.700 president in 2028 the restrictions on free speech in europe will double down and triple down

00:02:30.000 everything will become considerably worse this will be used to sort of discredit any rise of

00:02:36.680 the right throughout the west and it will be a disaster well they're going to conduct war

00:02:41.380 war trials exactly war crime trials yeah exactly as well as all the sexual madness that they come

00:02:46.380 as well as all the degeneracy and everything else that comes with the left rising etc so

00:02:51.820 nothing i say comes out of a particular love for iran i mean to be fair as a catholic i have a bit

00:02:58.160 of a soft spot for the shia rather than the sunnis but not that much really so i just wanted to give

00:03:05.540 that framing uh for people to understand where we're coming from really i think it's also worth

00:03:11.860 knowing that um for the rest of us like we're obviously anglos so we're naturally disposed to

00:03:17.320 our cousins across the pond yes and we were massive we are massive supporters of trump

00:03:22.020 when he is a nativist because what we view america first and maga as being is the the movement for

00:03:28.840 the americans themselves against the deep state against foreign interest against boondoggle

00:03:35.420 invasions of the Middle East done by some random country over there. We view MAGA as being against

00:03:42.560 that kind of thing. Trump seems to have been the person who campaigned on no foreign wars,

00:03:47.540 no boondoggle. I vocally supported Donald Trump in all three of the elections. Same here. I mean,

00:03:52.900 we were massive chillies for him because he represented what we wished we would get over

00:03:57.080 here, which thankfully we seem to have. But what we were supporting was the agenda that he ran on,

00:04:00.460 which was no Middle Eastern wars, and taking all that political capital

00:04:04.540 and focusing it primarily on deportations.

00:04:08.080 Now, there have been some deportations,

00:04:09.900 but the political capital was obviously spent elsewhere

00:04:13.080 because the deportations have been nothing like what Biden let in.

00:04:16.880 Correct.

00:04:17.840 So for us, we're criticising from a position of love and disappointment.

00:04:22.800 Yes.

00:04:23.020 We wished better for you guys from this.

00:04:27.360 That's our position.

00:04:29.260 Yes.

00:04:30.460 But before I continue, I should mention that we are having a live event on Saturday,

00:04:35.920 the 11th at 7 at the Mecca in Swindon.

00:04:39.960 That's correct.

00:04:40.920 So please do come and join us.

00:04:43.100 All three of us are going to be there, right?

00:04:44.560 Yep.

00:04:45.100 Yep.

00:04:45.860 It's going to be good fun.

00:04:47.280 It is.

00:04:48.060 We're going to be debating Star Wars, and there will be a protest.

00:04:52.360 Isn't that lovely?

00:04:53.200 I kind of want to do both.

00:04:54.640 It's sad that I have to pick.

00:04:56.060 Some people really hate the prequels.

00:04:59.440 Anyway.

00:05:00.460 Anyway, so let's go through a timeline of what's been going on.

00:05:06.040 Trump at some point threatened Iran with the end of its civilization

00:05:10.080 if they don't comply with what he asked them to do.

00:05:14.660 And he had been demanding a total and complete surrender from Iran, etc., etc.

00:05:19.480 But when he threatened to erase Iranian civilization,

00:05:23.340 the Iranians said that they had closed all diplomatic contact.

00:05:27.920 Turned out that this wasn't true.

00:05:30.460 it turns out that actually what had happened was that there were some communications with

00:05:41.600 the Pakistanis. And you could see from the Pakistani prime minister's Twitter account,

00:05:48.940 X account, that he was sent a text saying, draft Pakistan PM's message on X,

00:05:55.880 asking Trump and the Iranians to de-escalate.

00:06:02.200 How can we see his draft messages? 1.00

00:06:05.000 You could look...

00:06:05.800 Because they were stupid enough to just post the entire thing on Twitter.

00:06:09.820 You literally copy-pasted it and then edited it.

00:06:12.020 And if you look at the tweet itself and say,

00:06:14.580 show edit history, it'll show you what did it say before.

00:06:18.200 Oh, but sorry.

00:06:19.560 Oh, okay.

00:06:19.940 So this is really interesting because there's no way

00:06:24.440 someone within the pakistani administration writes pakistani pm's message on x yeah that's

00:06:30.920 an external message yes and there's no way it came from the iranians either so this is going to have

00:06:37.720 been sent to them by the americans yes yeah please post this and so he posts this asking trump for

00:06:45.420 some uh de-escalation and lo and behold uh trump obliges and says that there are going to be talks

00:06:54.320 based on this and the talks will be centered on iran's 10 point proposal right now which is

00:07:04.140 extraordinary of true because those i mean for the 10 points were drafted by iran they're i mean

00:07:08.400 they're all the iran wish list they are that's the wish list for iran that they won't be attacked

00:07:15.220 again permanent end of the war end of israeli strikes in lebanon lifting all sanctions i mean

00:07:21.720 that is massive so basically end the war completely on the current lines which obviously

00:07:28.780 favors iran and iran would impose fees on transiting hurmuz uh split with oman the omanis

00:07:36.700 are saying that the that they're not going to do that but we will see well i guess i guess um iran

00:07:42.560 have lost if they can't get that point over the line have to keep all the fees themselves i i

00:07:47.480 I suppose, I suppose.

00:07:50.040 Betried.

00:07:50.940 Yeah.

00:07:51.820 And the fees will finance Iranian reconstruction.

00:07:55.280 Iran to provide the rules for safe passage.

00:07:57.720 So basically Iran gets total sovereignty over Hormuz. 0.77

00:08:00.580 And gets to charge people for the privilege. 0.68

00:08:02.240 Which is kind of how Turkey operates with the, I think, the Montreux Convention over the Straits of the Bosphorus and the Dardanelle. 0.58

00:08:11.920 Yeah.

00:08:12.300 The Turks technically could charge fees, but they don't. 0.96

00:08:15.140 But they have the right to say, you're not allowed to pass.

00:08:18.380 And if it's a time of war, they won't allow any military vessels to pass.

00:08:22.840 And they will apply that across the board. 1.00

00:08:24.940 So that's what the Iranians asked for.

00:08:27.260 And Trump said that this will be the basis of the negotiations.

00:08:30.820 But there is some difference.

00:08:35.680 Apparently, according to Trump, this is a statement from Iran, from the Iranian foreign minister,

00:08:41.520 acknowledging the 15 points asked for by trump right and what trump's 15 points trump's 15 points

00:08:48.320 are essentially no nuclear enrichment end of the ballistic missile program or heavy restrictions on

00:08:53.120 it uh full opening of the strait of humus without any restrictions pretty much the antithesis of

00:08:59.240 what's here right so they have the diametrically opposite yes and trump's like yeah so we can begin

00:09:07.300 negotiating with their points.

00:09:09.060 Yes. 0.82

00:09:09.460 Have Iran said,

00:09:10.300 yes, we can begin negotiating

00:09:11.240 with America's points?

00:09:12.300 No.

00:09:13.060 They acknowledged that they were there.

00:09:15.760 Well, great.

00:09:16.640 So it says,

00:09:17.880 considering the request for the US

00:09:19.580 by negotiations based on its 15 points,

00:09:22.360 as well as announcement by POTUS

00:09:25.480 about acceptance of the general framework

00:09:27.880 of Iran's 10-point proposal.

00:09:29.980 Right.

00:09:30.260 So the language here says,

00:09:32.740 yeah, we heard you ask for your 15 points

00:09:35.240 as a basis for ceasefire negotiations,

00:09:37.960 but it's going to be based on our 10 points.

00:09:40.320 I love that Iran also tweets like Donald Trump.

00:09:44.440 If attacks against Iran are halted,

00:09:46.780 our powerful armed forces

00:09:48.380 will cease their defensive operations.

00:09:50.280 I'm literally expecting a thank you

00:09:51.760 for your attention to this matter.

00:09:52.860 Yeah, and importantly,

00:09:56.280 safe passage through Hormuz will be possible

00:09:58.400 via coordination with Iran's armed forces. 0.69

00:10:01.260 So if you don't talk to the Iranians, 0.58

00:10:02.500 you don't get to pass.

00:10:03.420 And the Wall Street Journal is saying

00:10:04.720 that the Iranians are threatening ships

00:10:06.900 to blow them up if they try to go through the strait 0.79

00:10:09.940 without Iran's approval.

00:10:11.140 Do we have any other source for this Iranian statement

00:10:13.560 other than Donald Trump?

00:10:15.180 I think this is actually an official statement

00:10:17.320 from the Iranians.

00:10:18.180 Okay.

00:10:21.360 So there seems to have been some confusion here.

00:10:24.460 Anyway, things aren't going very well

00:10:26.880 because it seems...

00:10:30.940 Did someone break the ceasefire, did they?

00:10:32.900 Yeah, two countries.

00:10:34.860 Oh, really?

00:10:35.900 Two countries.

00:10:37.100 It seems that the UAE attacked some oil facilities in Iran.

00:10:42.080 This is not confirmed yet. 0.88

00:10:43.700 Right.

00:10:44.900 And the Iranians responded by attacking oil facilities in the UAE and Kuwait.

00:10:52.800 Because Kuwait is where most American ground forces are located,

00:10:56.720 and the Iranians have been making a point of absolutely hammering, in particular, Kuwait and the UAE. 0.84

00:11:03.400 Why would the UAE do that, though?

00:11:05.800 Because if there is a ceasefire along the 10 points, that means that they have to pay the Iranians for every barrel of oil that they export. 0.78

00:11:15.240 That means that they've all been forced to accept that Iran is the new regional hegemon. 0.73

00:11:21.940 The UAE is deeply allied to the Israelis on every level. 0.54

00:11:27.580 and their view is that if that happens they might they might cease to exist as an independent state

00:11:34.280 because either the saudis or the iranians will take them right yeah okay which is the big fear

00:11:40.840 of all of the small states in the gulf i was going to make a glib comment about them being

00:11:44.680 basically fictional countries um they know that yeah yeah yeah they kind of are but well they are

00:11:50.680 But like, you know, you'd think Donald Trump, your protector, says, right, no more.

00:11:57.480 And then you start attacking.

00:11:58.960 Isn't that going to annoy that?

00:12:01.220 They're trying to keep Trump in the region because the 10 points include an American withdrawal from the region.

00:12:08.160 Now, Trump is saying that they're going to be hanging around the Middle East generally.

00:12:15.380 But Iran wants it to happen. 0.78

00:12:19.160 he's saying that the United States

00:12:21.600 will be helping with the traffic build-up

00:12:23.420 in the Strait of Hormuz.

00:12:24.520 The Iranians don't see it that way.

00:12:26.540 Yeah, no kidding. 0.52

00:12:28.420 Big money will be made.

00:12:30.480 Apparently, Trump told a journalist

00:12:32.520 that they might split the toll fees with the Iranians,

00:12:36.580 that the United States might split

00:12:37.940 the toll fees with the Iranians. 0.57

00:12:39.300 He can't stop Trump the businessman, though, can he?

00:12:41.460 Yeah, yeah.

00:12:42.360 I mean, if Iran can charge a single dollar per ship, 0.96

00:12:46.420 that is just an Iran win.

00:12:49.040 That's an insane amount of money. 0.61

00:12:50.380 Or even a dollar per ship, that is the principle conceded.

00:12:53.200 Yeah, exactly. That's the thing.

00:12:54.880 But if it's two million per ship,

00:12:57.680 which works out about a dollar per barrel, 0.70

00:12:59.580 you can't spin that any other way than an Iranian win. 0.99

00:13:02.980 Yes.

00:13:03.520 We'll be loading up with supplies of all kinds

00:13:05.940 and just hanging around in order to make sure everything goes well.

00:13:09.480 I mean, that really does...

00:13:10.620 I hate to say it, but that's the language of someone

00:13:13.580 who has been kicked in the teeth

00:13:15.340 and is just going to step back and let things take their place.

00:13:19.860 And he's also saying that he's ready to resume the war

00:13:22.780 if things don't go well.

00:13:24.940 Okay, so what actually counts as a ceasefire?

00:13:27.460 Because there's so many parties involved in this region.

00:13:30.040 Yes.

00:13:31.100 Is it a ceasefire if the US isn't shooting at Iran

00:13:34.840 and Iran isn't shooting at US bases, 0.91

00:13:37.320 but Iran is shooting at everybody else

00:13:39.580 and everybody else is shooting at Iran?

00:13:41.380 Is that still a ceasefire? 1.00

00:13:43.860 That's a win for Iran. 0.96

00:13:45.340 because they would have taken out the biggest military. 1.00

00:13:48.260 It's a massive win for Iran. 0.94

00:13:49.800 And now they'll have time to just smack around everybody else. 0.98

00:13:53.120 Even if it's Iran and Israel and the UAE going at it, 0.87

00:13:58.300 you know, they don't have to.

00:13:59.280 That is a nightmare scenario for Israel. 0.84

00:14:00.980 That's not like 10 million population against Iran's 90 million.

00:14:03.840 Exactly. 0.99

00:14:04.100 Iran is going to win that easily, right? 0.98

00:14:06.460 I mean, the whole thing with Israel is always like, 0.99

00:14:09.040 oh, we're going to bring in America, right? 0.99

00:14:10.960 And if America says, right, we're staying out of it, 0.88

00:14:13.020 well, they're in their own trouble, aren't they?

00:14:14.320 They can't exactly fight a war of attrition.

00:14:16.480 And so the Pakistanis and the Iranians are saying that the ceasefire includes Lebanon,

00:14:23.500 where the Israelis are waging a war against Hezbollah.

00:14:27.260 And we haven't posted this yet, but as we were speaking,

00:14:31.080 the Israelis launched the biggest wave of airstrikes against Lebanon

00:14:34.840 to make sure that there is no ceasefire. 0.83

00:14:37.320 Right. So the Israelis are not honouring the ceasefire either.

00:14:40.280 Exactly. So the Israelis and the Emiratis are both trying to make sure

00:14:43.820 that the ceasefire doesn't happen because it seems to be entirely favorable to iran because it is

00:14:48.580 incredibly favorable to iran do we know if iran has has since this apparent ceasefire has begun

00:14:53.980 do we know if iran has fired missiles at israel uh in the first hour after the ceasefire yes but

00:15:00.960 not yet but but not since okay and so that could be delayed communications whatever my view is that

00:15:08.580 because they're attacking Hezbollah this heavily,

00:15:11.640 the Iranians are going to fire a big salvo at the Israelis

00:15:14.780 at some point today or in the next couple of days. 0.98

00:15:18.040 And they will use that to say,

00:15:20.100 well, either it's a full ceasefire or it isn't. 0.97

00:15:22.860 And if it isn't, then the Iranians will bring in the Houthi

00:15:26.180 and shut down the Red Sea as well. 0.86

00:15:29.080 And so the amount of pressure, economically speaking,

00:15:33.240 will go through the roof.

00:15:34.260 It's really weird how Star Wars is surprisingly apt

00:15:37.180 as an analogy for all of this go on well just this is literally the sand people uh getting

00:15:43.200 involved on behalf of the rebels against the empire but anyway like so like how how is it that

00:15:50.320 iran still have so many missiles exactly because they built these massive underground missile

00:15:57.560 cities right that are designed to take a bunch of blows from b-2s and b-52s right and keep on

00:16:04.380 functioning that have gaps and so on to make sure that a blow on one location doesn't collapse the

00:16:12.040 whole thing. And then the Americans try to shut the tunnels in and mine the area. But like aerial

00:16:21.120 mining, you just drop a bomb that drops landmines. But then the Iranians keep reopening the tunnel 1.00

00:16:27.580 entrances and firing again. And what are they going to be doing over the next two weeks? They're 0.95

00:16:31.760 going to be reopening all of the tunnel entrances so that if the war does resume they can start with 0.79

00:16:39.200 the same kind of massive salvo that they kicked the war off with right okay so the the iranians

00:16:45.820 aren't going to run out of missiles anytime soon i don't think that that's going to happen and also

00:16:50.580 doesn't iran have an open supply line to turkmenistan well there's so so chinese and russian

00:16:56.320 drones can still get in so there are stories that they're making drones in turkmenistan that the

00:17:01.440 The Iranians are making drones in Turkmenistan, which is a kind of Russian-Chinese protectorate.

00:17:06.520 And then the Belt and Road Initiative has a major terminus in Kazakhstan on the Caspian Sea.

00:17:13.120 And then there is a connection between Iran and Russia, Volgograd, through the Caspian as well.

00:17:20.240 So the Iranians have an open supply line to China and Russia.

00:17:23.580 Well, the Americans literally can't intercede in.

00:17:26.840 Not really.

00:17:27.600 Not really. 1.00

00:17:29.180 Not unless they really want to provoke Russians

00:17:32.140 and risk a bigger Russian response.

00:17:34.840 And the land route can't be, like it's a land route,

00:17:37.840 you're not going to be able to stop.

00:17:39.480 It would be a hell of an air mission going in that deep

00:17:41.940 into Russian and Chinese area. 0.53

00:17:44.580 They've done it once.

00:17:45.360 They've attacked the Iranian ports on the Caspian once,

00:17:47.440 but apparently they subsequently received a Russian warning

00:17:50.400 saying, don't you dare do that again.

00:17:52.180 so it doesn't look very good shall we say and hezbollah adhered to the ceasefire they've stopped

00:18:04.460 firing but the israelis are pummeling lebanon more than they did since the war began but aren't

00:18:11.360 there israeli troops actually inside lebanon yes i've seen tanks yes so so i mean it's one thing

00:18:18.340 having a ceasefire when you don't fire into another country yes but i mean that's quite

00:18:23.200 restrained if you're not firing at foreign troops that are actually inside your country and they're

00:18:27.660 not doing that because they want to stick to the ceasefire and force the israelis out so yeah but

00:18:32.340 israel do not want this this piece to take hold not in the least because for them it is the

00:18:39.600 beginning of the full american exit from the middle east and that's what they're afraid of

00:18:44.600 because then everybody around them is going to gang up against them.

00:18:48.360 And after seeing this war, if you're Egypt, if you're Turkey,

00:18:52.400 even if you're Saudi Arabia, and obviously if you're Iran, 0.69

00:18:55.940 you need to get nuclear weapons. 0.97

00:18:57.220 Well, I suppose that kind of answers my point then,

00:18:59.120 because even though the Israeli troops are still with inside Lebanon,

00:19:04.000 Hezbollah could make a big statement,

00:19:06.000 oh yeah, we are observing the ceasefire and actually observe it. 0.98

00:19:09.900 Safe in the knowledge that there's a 100% chance the Israelis won't. 0.92

00:19:14.080 and actually it's just an intermission 0.96

00:19:16.700 for the space of a few hours on Wednesday morning

00:19:19.180 and then they can get straight back to it.

00:19:20.760 Pretty much.

00:19:21.880 What's interesting as well,

00:19:23.040 I remember a couple of days ago

00:19:24.140 the Israeli saber rattling about Turkey, in fact.

00:19:26.880 Yes.

00:19:27.200 You know, the usual sort of think pieces

00:19:29.380 were published in various Israeli publications

00:19:32.160 about, oh, Turkey's the next problem,

00:19:34.120 thinking that they had Iran in the bag.

00:19:36.140 Yes. 0.98

00:19:37.160 And now clearly they don't.

00:19:39.000 Yeah. 0.77

00:19:39.260 Turkey is definitely a winner out of this.

00:19:41.180 Yeah.

00:19:41.680 I think you're absolutely right.

00:19:42.740 the impetus to get nuclear weapons has just shot oh yeah yes if i was erdogan yeah that'd be top of

00:19:50.240 my list what else are you doing and what was he doing two days ago he was showing off next to a

00:19:55.160 ballistic missile with a 1500 kilometer range erdogan was erdogan right a uh i think it's

00:20:01.580 called tufan or something like that and he's bragging about it and now it's in serial production

00:20:06.420 just like the iranian ballistic missiles as regional powers go i mean isn't isn't

00:20:11.880 turkey even bigger stronger than military than egypt uh they have a believe a million men

00:20:18.560 in total yeah and they are the second largest army in nato after only the united states okay

00:20:24.860 right so yeah i mean they are have a decent navy unlike the egyptians yeah and they have a good

00:20:33.380 uh military manufacturing uh sector so they i mean you can you can see why israel wants to take

00:20:39.460 them out yes but i mean it's i mean we've all seen the articles in the jerusalem post you know

00:20:44.520 turkey's next and all the politicians saying is turkey's next i mean but i mean that is just a

00:20:49.520 complete non-starter now now it's a complete non-starter it's also a very mountainous country

00:20:53.780 as well isn't it so it's a very mountainous country so anatolia and and persia are built

00:20:58.720 like fortresses yeah so like it's that's why the wars between them happen in syria and iraq

00:21:03.720 because you can actually go there.

00:21:06.460 You can walk across it.

00:21:07.400 Yes.

00:21:08.160 So can we talk about the infamous tweet quickly?

00:21:14.120 Because, of course, I logged on to Twitter yesterday,

00:21:17.260 and I saw this, and I said, you know what?

00:21:18.800 I'm not monitoring this situation.

00:21:20.040 I just closed Twitter and logged off

00:21:21.220 because I saw people freaking out on the left and right,

00:21:26.400 to be honest.

00:21:26.920 And by the infamous tweet, you mean the whole civilization?

00:21:29.860 The whole civilization.

00:21:31.200 Samson, can you get that one up?

00:21:32.600 That would be a good one.

00:21:33.260 as soon as i saw it i was just okay this is this is donald trump this is the sort of thing trump

00:21:39.800 says when he's not getting his way yes ramps up the rhetoric to ridiculous degrees when he's not

00:21:48.820 getting what he wants out of negotiations yes whatever his stated goals are and for some reason

00:21:54.460 a lot of people are still taking this uh literally but not seriously right so obviously i didn't think

00:22:00.800 that literally donald trump i mean a lot of people say oh see donald trump didn't nuke iran so yeah

00:22:05.720 but nobody thought he was actually going to nuke iran right yep yeah here's here's the tweet a

00:22:10.220 whole civilization will die tonight probably never to be back brought back again i don't want it to

00:22:14.740 happen but probably will however now that we have complete and total regime change we're different

00:22:19.940 smarter and less radicalized minds prevail maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen

00:22:25.380 who knows we'll find out tonight one of the most important moments in the long and complex history

00:22:29.800 of the world 47 years of extortion corruption and death will finally end god bless the great

00:22:33.880 people of iran now this this is such typical trumpian rhetoric about trying to manifest

00:22:41.460 rhetorically in new reality yes to show people no look like there's there's there's the stick

00:22:48.540 but there's also the carrot and you know here's an off-ramp so the stick doesn't come but it's like

00:22:53.300 okay the problem is everyone's calling you taco because they always know you're gonna yeah back

00:22:58.800 out at the last minute because this is a persuasion tactic and not actually a serious

00:23:04.440 commitment of what you want to do well i will give them credit for this i mean you know some

00:23:08.680 people saying does this mean nukes because if you read the first sentence you know whole

00:23:12.460 civilization will die tonight that strongly implies nukes yes but then as you go on and

00:23:16.500 read the rest of it i mean what this really is it is a kind of a masterful bit of ambiguity this

00:23:22.460 this tweet taken in its entirety could mean anything it could mean you yes could mean

00:23:27.120 negotiation it could be in an off-ramp i mean who the hell knows what it means yeah he he could

00:23:30.980 come out and say yeah what i was talking about is the civilization of the the mullahs and the

00:23:33.880 ayatollah's regime yes die tonight never to be brought back but a free iran will spring out for

00:23:38.240 he could he could literally manipulate into anything which is why i was just like i saw it 0.60

00:23:42.100 and everyone was freaking out i was like no not today you know i'm sorry i've got things i need

00:23:47.380 to do around the house the kids are whining you know like yes i was about i was on the freaking

00:23:51.200 out camp because the reason this happened no but but the the reason this happened was because

00:23:58.840 he we had reached a point in the escalation where the energy infrastructure of the entire gulf

00:24:07.160 including iran was going to get erased and so we got very close to the point of no return

00:24:13.660 whereby now okay in six months something like that you might return to some normalcy with

00:24:20.880 some stuff taking another couple of years had this continued down this path it would have been

00:24:28.520 the destruction of the main facilities that allow any oil to be extracted meaning that this

00:24:37.080 energy gets shut in for five ten years which would have been and you're talking there about

00:24:43.080 the reciprocation effect as well they would have destroyed their energy infrastructure they would

00:24:47.740 destroyed the rest of the energy infrastructure and also the desalination plant so not only do 0.99

00:24:52.500 you get a permanent reduction in global energy capacity you also get an enormous refugee crisis 0.91

00:24:58.400 in the middle east yes and so he got it to that point of escalation but because the iranians were

00:25:06.100 able to keep retaliating in kind he climbed down that but the thing is what i hit what i read in

00:25:13.380 this is the climb down yes right everyone got really fixated on the first sentence right but

00:25:19.360 i was paying attention to the who knows in block capital the reason why i my response is primarily

00:25:25.380 about the first sentence is because um yes it's more likely that it's going to be the second part

00:25:30.900 yeah but i am asymmetrically concerned with the first part yes even though it's low let's say

00:25:36.460 that the nuke thing is a is a two percent possibility and the rest of it is a 98 possibility

00:25:40.960 well I'm still going to put my energy into saying

00:25:43.440 yeah but don't do that thing

00:25:44.960 sorry one more point

00:25:47.340 the more you play that kind

00:25:49.560 of game the more you encourage

00:25:51.480 the other side to be stubborn and not

00:25:53.400 take you seriously and the more you

00:25:55.320 encourage everybody in the world

00:25:57.180 to just get as many nuclear weapons

00:25:59.240 as they can. So there are second

00:26:01.220 order effects to playing this game

00:26:03.140 I completely agree. Which are just

00:26:05.180 insane. Because what

00:26:07.100 essentially is the kind of like madman theory

00:26:09.400 uh that trump's been playing right but there are limits to it sure i i totally agree um but that's

00:26:14.720 and trump has discovered the limits in iran's 10 demands yes as in no no we know you're bluffing

00:26:21.540 yes we and and we are maniacs ourselves yes like we are legitimately we think every single one of

00:26:27.960 us goes straight to heaven the second you bomb us right so we're going to do we we actually can

00:26:33.120 hold the line here we've got our stocks we're we're able to strike your infrastructure we're

00:26:38.600 able to cause you massive cascading problems yes and you all you can do is bluster on truth social 0.52

00:26:45.300 right that's basically what i read from this and the war ended because the iranians demonstrated 0.78

00:26:50.620 that they have escalation dominance yes because they can cause far more damage to the world economy 0.88

00:26:56.680 than and are willing to take the damage that is meted out to them because they are actually

00:27:02.240 lunatics yes they gave trump everything on the nuclear issue before the war started

00:27:08.960 then the war happened anyway it was hard to see why so they switched from reasonable mode to

00:27:14.540 lunatic mode yes i mean genuinely it was it was hard to see what the point of this war was in the

00:27:18.740 first place i mean we'll get to it in the second segment because now we actually know yes spoiler

00:27:23.680 it's israel um like the and for some reason trump's marriage to promoting their interest

00:27:31.680 but from an american point of view this was completely unnecessary and hasn't done trump

00:27:38.140 any favors and has just entrenched the opposition well this this comes back to your first point

00:27:42.840 about the the schism with the american right and actually i mean i don't think it's quite as clear

00:27:47.040 as that lots of the american right have been against the war all the way through yeah there

00:27:50.240 are there are lots of good people but the re the reason we're against it because we it's not because

00:27:54.060 we're backing iran is because we think it's bad for america yeah now don't get me wrong right if

00:27:59.480 if and and not just this is bad for america is really poorly organized as well yes right there

00:28:05.360 was no plan there was no plan they believe that daniel is bs there was there was an israeli plan

00:28:10.100 which is which was drag america drag america into a 30-year conflict yeah but the the thing is like

00:28:16.040 If America, like, had built a coalition,

00:28:19.300 if it had actually prepared, like, 100,000 men

00:28:22.300 as a ground force or something like this,

00:28:23.740 and actually just been like, no, no,

00:28:24.880 if we're going to do this, we have to do it properly. 1.00

00:28:26.920 Because, you know, I don't think Iran 0.75

00:28:28.280 is an impossible conquest or anything. 1.00

00:28:31.020 It's just you thought the Iranians would crack 1.00

00:28:33.740 under the pressure.

00:28:35.480 Well, there'd be internal regime change.

00:28:37.680 Exactly.

00:28:38.480 Either the regime would just be like,

00:28:40.540 okay, yeah, no, we don't want to get bombed to death.

00:28:42.440 Actually, they don't care about that.

00:28:43.840 Or that there would be a massive uprising from below.

00:28:46.040 it seems that actually

00:28:47.440 when the missiles

00:28:48.320 are raining down

00:28:49.040 that isn't when people

00:28:49.900 feel like overthrowing

00:28:50.680 their government

00:28:51.140 they rallied to the government

00:28:52.560 yeah of course they did

00:28:53.560 because the country's

00:28:54.300 under attack

00:28:54.940 yes

00:28:55.360 like don't get me wrong

00:28:57.400 I hate Keir Starmer

00:28:58.520 as much as the next man

00:28:59.720 but if a French attack

00:29:00.920 if German bombs

00:29:01.880 start raining down

00:29:02.620 on London

00:29:03.120 I'm not siding 0.98

00:29:04.380 with the Germans 0.95

00:29:05.280 if day one

00:29:06.560 a girl's school

00:29:07.660 goes up in smoke

00:29:08.520 yeah

00:29:08.760 yeah I'm

00:29:09.660 sorry I'm from my country

00:29:11.600 you know

00:29:12.420 even if I hate my government

00:29:13.600 you know

00:29:14.420 and so you've got to

00:29:15.740 You know, this whole thing was really poorly thought out.

00:29:18.880 Yes.

00:29:19.160 But it was obviously not Trump's actual idea to do this.

00:29:23.400 Look, he went for it.

00:29:24.960 Yeah.

00:29:25.800 He went for it.

00:29:27.200 And he went for it for one reason.

00:29:29.580 Yeah.

00:29:29.920 The brain blob that sat on the side of his bloody head.

00:29:32.820 Yeah, pretty much. 0.99

00:29:34.080 And from that, you know, he's now for all the Gulf states,

00:29:40.300 they're in an impossible position.

00:29:41.780 Yeah.

00:29:42.380 uh because the order that exists and the borders that exist in the gulf only exist because

00:29:50.400 the british empire handed the baton to the america under western hegemony exactly and

00:29:56.660 this is the thing about like paddling in the rubicon so no if you're going to do something

00:30:00.300 okay fair enough do it seriously exactly yeah like don't don't take half measures i mean the

00:30:05.220 guy in south korea who's now in jail for half staging a coup exactly like you know like it's

00:30:10.740 all the same thing okay any dip in the rudiment yeah yeah if if you want to overthrow the iranian

00:30:15.580 regime i don't care i don't care about the iranian regime just if you if you mess it up

00:30:21.940 what you do is break the myth of american supremacy yes that's what the americans have

00:30:28.700 to understand here right and so i now i now i suppose it's a good time to discuss this because

00:30:32.920 so throughout history you get um people of remarkable military power right all throughout

00:30:39.760 history and they win and they win and they win and what this does in the minds of their opponents

00:30:44.740 they look at the over-awing might of this conquering army with this amazing general and

00:30:49.940 they think right we can't beat that so we don't fight yeah yes and what that does is lead to more

00:30:54.620 victories and so the myth of invincibility builds around this general and his army until one day

00:31:00.740 they do lose well it's important that your enemy believe it but that you don't exactly exactly

00:31:06.900 right that precisely you don't believe the myth of your own invisibility because then you get

00:31:11.000 complacent and all it takes is one small reverse not a catastrophic defeat not the main army gets

00:31:17.120 crushed by an enemy army no no no what it is is like you know 5 000 man detachment gets routed

00:31:22.760 and has to run back and then suddenly everyone's like oh right no they can be beaten yes right

00:31:28.120 okay right now we now we realize that resistance is possible and as soon as the myth of invincibility

00:31:33.980 shatters then the whole thing starts collapsing i was worried that biden's disastrous retreat from

00:31:39.160 afghanistan was going to be that but i think they kind of got a pass on it because biden was so

00:31:44.440 befuddled that you could say okay well it's not really an america's defeat it wasn't a military

00:31:48.900 defeat at all like the taliban weren't like taking cities or something taliban the americans are

00:31:53.600 leaving oh right should we yeah should we get should we go in oh i think now's the time guys

00:31:57.340 and the afghan army dissolved yeah exactly it wasn't sort of disappeared you know it wasn't

00:32:03.120 american weakness that caused battles whereas here what's different is that the iranians were

00:32:09.380 able to extract an enormous price but they were able to not from the americans themselves exactly

00:32:14.980 not from the americans themselves by inflicting mass casualties on the americans but from what

00:32:20.340 matters to the united states which is the world economy yes and the the americans there reveal

00:32:24.920 the limits of their own power right the achilles heel the vulnerability they have as the global

00:32:29.940 hegemon they have to be concerned about the nature of the global economic system because it's the

00:32:34.760 american global economic system after this it's entirely possible the uranians will be trading

00:32:40.160 oil in one or whatever it is yes right so that's not good that's really not good for i'll just say

00:32:46.220 for any haters in the comment of course we recognize that the u.s is the strongest most

00:32:50.400 powerful military in the world yeah no question about it it's not invulnerable and it's not

00:32:54.720 unlimited no and that's the thing that americans i think have in their heads well and also the

00:32:58.620 military itself is propped up by as you said the economy yes and if the economy is being hurt and

00:33:03.120 the dollar system is being hurt well that's just delayed effect impact on the military and as far

00:33:08.360 said if someone has escalation dominance as in no we can ruin everything for you even if you

00:33:14.920 eventually break us then that's where you can see donald trump was pulled back and gone okay okay

00:33:20.660 we'll come to the negotiating table there you have it exposed the weakness yes and like the point of

00:33:27.160 the use of force is to achieve a political outcome yes if you can't achieve 101 exactly

00:33:32.900 if you can't achieve that political outcome then you can drop as many bombs as you like but it

00:33:39.640 doesn't change the fact that you're trying to achieve something in particular and especially

00:33:43.660 as the the iranians are the worst target to approach with that attitude because they have

00:33:49.740 a sort of messianic martyrdom complex.

00:33:53.020 Exactly.

00:33:53.500 And the Shia religion itself

00:33:56.100 is built on a martyrdom complex. 0.58

00:33:58.480 It couldn't have played into their hands better, frankly.

00:34:02.900 And the fact that Khamenei, the father,

00:34:05.760 stayed in his office on the third floor

00:34:09.060 was not accidental.

00:34:11.480 What was he, 86, cancer-ridden?

00:34:13.600 He would have turned 87 on the 19th of April, I think.

00:34:18.360 couldn't couldn't have a better time as you pointed out earlier couldn't be a better time to be a

00:34:22.520 martyr oh if if i decided i wanted to become a martyr i'd be like yeah 86 and with cancer that's

00:34:28.740 a good moment yeah yeah but the so just this as you know one of the sort of military history nerds

00:34:34.780 i'm just looking at this with genuine concern because the the thing is it's not that this

00:34:40.920 means america is beaten right no or anything like that but what this means is america faces much

00:34:46.020 more stiff resistance when it wants to do something else somewhere else and that means some

00:34:50.960 marxist group in latin america yeah whatever some bunch of gangsters in mexico yeah some other

00:34:57.000 insurgency is going to realize if we impose a heavy enough political price we can get what we

00:35:03.920 want politically without winning a single battle yes and and also how the vietnamese won they

00:35:10.280 didn't win a single military engagement against the united states they won the war yeah so it's

00:35:16.480 this inability to see the other guy's perspective but also that is at heart here what what this also

00:35:22.980 does is makes the next thing the american military have to do so much harder yes because yes you will

00:35:29.200 you will meet much more confident and organized resistance you will beat it but you'll have to

00:35:35.600 put a lot more into it and so where you could have achieved it with you know a sort of like 20

00:35:40.520 energy expenditure now you've got to put a 40 energy expenditure in and your your energy is

00:35:45.880 not unlimited so now that's energy you have to direct from somewhere else i mean didn't they

00:35:49.960 have to take troops from like the china sea and like south korea air defense systems from south

00:35:55.140 korea right which was a huge political problem for the south koreans of course it was because

00:35:59.780 the north koreans are just like oh what's happening here now the south koreans can build their own

00:36:03.880 air defenses and they're good but taking away the american ones but the point is that you now have 0.61

00:36:10.200 to start this will happen in other places right the next time some trouble comes up you're going

00:36:15.740 to have to read redivert more energy than you thought you would have had to have done and this

00:36:20.400 is why the myth of invincibility is very useful and frivolously squandering it like this on behalf

00:36:26.860 of israel is not good for the americans in the audience i'm speaking in your for your advice

00:36:33.700 for your good here. This was a strategic mistake in the long run for your republic. 0.85

00:36:39.640 Because for the Israelis, it wasn't just the nuclear program that they're afraid of. 0.69

00:36:43.360 They know that Iran can be deterred. The issue was the ballistic missile program and the drone 0.70

00:36:48.500 program, which was spreading throughout the region, firing from so many locations that it

00:36:54.020 would overwhelm air defenses, and getting to a point where Israel can be conventionally beaten,

00:37:00.600 or beaten back rather that's a great point because i mean one thing contained one thing 0.62

00:37:05.100 sorry what the israelis don't want is to be contained because they are deeply committed 0.62

00:37:10.680 to the greater israel project and they're in the process of trying to expel the palestinians of the

00:37:15.160 west bank trying to expand their borders in lebanon they've already expanded them in syria

00:37:20.080 etc etc and they've actually published pieces saying that egypt should be next oh have they

00:37:26.000 yes right well and turkey and turkey turkey yeah i mean why not so it they were getting to a stage

00:37:33.040 of such unhinged hubris yeah and the thing is as well didn't the iron dome basically fail

00:37:39.160 like i heard so much or six layers to the to the israeli missile defense system yeah they ran out

00:37:45.580 of the best interceptors right the lowest quality interceptors they still have and they ran out of

00:37:51.620 some of the mid-level interceptors or not ran not fully ran out they had to become selective in what

00:37:57.660 they intercepted yeah because they were getting close to running out but also isn't isn't iron

00:38:02.920 dome downstream of a whole bunch of u.s um radar installations so there's very early on patriot

00:38:08.720 uh arrow uh david sling and then iron dome iron dome is actually the lowest one i see but the

00:38:16.820 point is it wasn't the complete protection that i think had been built up it's not invulnerability

00:38:22.720 yeah of the people in anticipation for this war and i think obviously people didn't expect the

00:38:27.880 continual barrage iran was going to be able to actually put out i mean i was surprised frankly

00:38:32.340 you know like i i honestly thought that okay a couple of weeks maybe but like they're still doing

00:38:37.860 it so you know iran wasn't a paper tiger right the the regime deeply entrenched and america has

00:38:45.060 wasted a huge amount of reputational damage on what seems to just be a boondoggle here which

00:38:51.840 was done with very very poor planning because i mean if there's if there's one thing that you want

00:38:58.280 in war it's a really good plan it won't survive contact with the enemy but you'll you know have

00:39:03.840 contingencies have have have genuine sort of like another thing is what were trump's war aims here

00:39:11.980 What were his wars?

00:39:13.000 Bomb the Iranian leadership and get them to capitulate. 0.91

00:39:15.820 Yeah, but they weren't going to do that.

00:39:17.800 They've been fighting this war.

00:39:18.880 Well, we're starting to get some details on this

00:39:20.460 on the New York Times article that we've come to.

00:39:22.420 Yeah, yeah, but the Iranians have been fighting this war

00:39:24.300 on their heads for the last 50 years. 1.00

00:39:25.720 Yes.

00:39:26.240 They know exactly what they're doing.

00:39:27.680 And so anyway, just, I'm, like, this was not wise. 1.00

00:39:32.840 And now the United States will work closely with Iran, 0.98

00:39:36.460 which we have determined has gone through

00:39:38.580 what will be a very productive regime change.

00:39:40.460 it hasn't yeah what i did it went from ayatollah khamenei to ayatollah khamenei yes there will be

00:39:47.460 no enrichment of uranium the iranian supreme national security council is saying that they're

00:39:52.600 going to continue enriching uranium yeah uh there's going to be limits on the ballistic

00:39:59.120 no not going to happen we are and we will be taking tariffs and sanctions really talking

00:40:04.960 tariff and sanctions relief with Iran.

00:40:06.880 Actually, he can't because Congress will make sure

00:40:10.240 that there is no sanctions relief for Iran. 0.87

00:40:12.500 But even if they were somehow like,

00:40:14.760 yeah, do whatever you want, Mr. Trump,

00:40:16.860 how is sanctions relief on Iran not just a pure Iranian win?

00:40:20.640 How many decades has Iran been sanctioned by America?

00:40:23.060 40 years now.

00:40:23.940 There we go, right?

00:40:24.700 So that's 40 years of American,

00:40:27.860 like rock-solid American foreign policy

00:40:29.640 to contain a hostile regime undone.

00:40:32.820 Yes.

00:40:33.020 And so, like, this is definitely an L, unfortunately. 0.89

00:40:37.760 It is a strategic loss for the Americans because now Iran is the new regional hegemon. 0.82

00:40:44.300 If this ceasefire is implemented at anything close to the 10 points, 0.91

00:40:49.520 Iran is the new regional hegemon. 0.96

00:40:52.080 Even if they only get like one or two of those points through, that's, I mean, Iran, 0.69

00:40:56.580 I mean, I've seen Iran's Twitter feeds, you know, the Iranian media and all the state

00:41:01.760 organs posting ai videos of trump with a white flag and stuff like this and to be honest with

00:41:06.800 you from their perspective you can see why they're beating their chest yes yeah they say they're

00:41:10.000 literally going to go around to everyone in the region say we beat america yes don't test us

00:41:14.660 we're in charge now that's and the thing is and now you have to pay reparations because you allowed

00:41:19.200 your territory to be used against us which is technically under the united nations aggression

00:41:24.740 what's the uae gonna say about that like good point which is why they're trying to extend the

00:41:29.840 war yeah they're trying they're trying to the uae and israel are trying to extend the war because

00:41:35.140 they realize that this is an l they need to force an american victory and if that's not coming 0.69

00:41:41.000 they're all in trouble well they're going to get swallowed by saudi aren't they so

00:41:45.480 yep someone's getting swallowed by someone the thing is just the borders are not going to stay

00:41:51.000 the same no the borders are not going to last five or ten years the borders of the region are

00:41:55.560 going to be redrawn how is the question yeah i mean just just to be clear this is actually

00:42:00.540 historically incredibly normal yes like yes historically for for literally like the last

00:42:06.820 2 000 years iran being the persian empire under various uh dynasties uh just controlled essentially

00:42:14.480 from uh syria all the way over to pakistan afghanistan right that was just there and big

00:42:21.820 chunks of the gulf are different yeah yeah like if you know the it's it's called the persian gulf

00:42:26.300 for a reason yeah the boundaries in that fuzzy sometimes it's higher or lower but that's roughly

00:42:31.680 the region from like the edge of syria over to there that was normal for the persians to have

00:42:36.760 that as their state yes so this current like situation is artificial basically exactly and

00:42:45.040 it's ending if the ceasefire is implemented it's ending yeah should we go through some super chats

00:42:51.040 yes people have some opinions on this um sigil stone says uh such a defeat iran must have really

00:42:58.280 smashed the u.s mainland and sunk many u.s ships that's not sigil stone the only measure of defeat

00:43:02.820 that's the problem right this is what i'm saying about uh the the the loss for america here is the

00:43:10.100 loss of the aura of invincibility this is an argument i often see put forward which is to say

00:43:14.460 well we killed more of them and therefore we won yeah well are you sure you want to make that the

00:43:19.160 standard because because if if that is the standard the british won in 1776 well yeah so

00:43:25.580 but it's and germany would have won world war ii yes the the thing is so just then what what you're

00:43:32.120 this isn't you're not fighting uh a gargantuan land war against uh a fairly equally matched

00:43:39.620 power in europe right like that's that's what happens when the french take germany or the

00:43:44.060 germany take france right that's not what's happening here what you're trying to do is

00:43:48.360 essentially um create a new settlement in the uh extremities of your empire and you've just

00:43:55.880 failed to do that right you were trying to achieve a political aim yes previously the threat was if

00:44:02.580 you don't give us what we want this is what we will do to you militarily and it will work yeah

00:44:06.900 now actually the military option won't work therefore you will be challenged more often

00:44:14.620 on political questions, leading to more military escalation. That's what happened.

00:44:19.600 Can I quickly address a point in the chat? I mean, Jill Bug says, you know, yes for us,

00:44:24.080 cheering against us again. I'm going to assume you're American. All three of us have been very

00:44:28.160 clear. We are not cheering for Iran. We actually all very much support the United States. We think 0.95

00:44:35.580 that getting into this left you only with bad options. And it almost certainly has got to the

00:44:41.500 point where you're going to have to take a bad option that is not cheering against you that is

00:44:45.740 cheering for not getting into the situation in the first place and we're also trying to help you

00:44:49.880 understand why this has happened yes how you can make the best of it as well um we like unfortunately

00:44:56.920 you can't this sort of argument that we're cheering is you know that's you trying to protect your own

00:45:02.140 ego from what has really happened here right and unfortunately we're going to have to force you to

00:45:06.940 look it in the face because this wasn't just the unvarnished win that you'd like it to be

00:45:12.440 you've got to be realistic about that take it from a post-hegemonic power uh minor power that

00:45:18.080 barely has a navy uh you you get here in these sort of small steps but eventually you arrive at

00:45:25.420 that point um axis eternal says guys iran does not have escalation dominance the us just won't

00:45:34.020 actually use this escalation options well i don't uh i don't actually if you were to nuke them

00:45:39.300 as you are suggesting yeah every other power mid-sized power will build nuclear weapons

00:45:46.620 yes the turks the egyptians and the saudis and the algerians and a bunch of others will go to

00:45:53.360 pakistan and say here's a billion dollars give us nukes yeah it's just not on the table right

00:45:59.600 you're not nuking anyone that's not going to happen um so i don't agree with that and but also 0.92

00:46:06.360 okay let's assume you didn't nuke iran well the iranians would still ruin the global economy 0.88

00:46:10.680 and cause 50 years of misery for everyone like so it's you know i don't know you know 0.96

00:46:16.840 okay that'd be bad for iran but iran would make it bad for the entire world

00:46:20.560 so i can't see how that uh yep sigil says they expected iran to crack so what carl is saying is

00:46:28.460 they're not like you and you don't understand them yeah exactly and i've been saying that a

00:46:31.620 lot about a lot of stuff haven't i you know like a lot um orchid says in my opinion this whole

00:46:37.320 affair should have been at most of the two-day bombing that said this is for attacking our

00:46:40.980 people your people yeah and that would have been that could have actually had the intended effect

00:46:45.480 well it did it did back when he dropped the bunker buster exactly right that shut them up

00:46:50.660 exactly like israel and iran exchanging missiles and trump's like no bam big bomb i'm not yeah

00:46:56.040 exactly i'm here i'm i'm literally here's the mediator at that point the regime lost all of

00:47:00.380 its main narratives yes and if it had been left in that state it would have been creaking and what's

00:47:05.460 you got them to rally to the regime yeah and what's really frustrating is that up until this

00:47:11.200 point i have been nothing i've had nothing but glowing praise for trump's foreign interventions

00:47:16.060 yes because they've actually always been really good yes i mean the difference between that last

00:47:20.820 that bunker buster bomb is is that what it was doing is it was dismantling the israeli narrative

00:47:25.600 because he came out immediately after that

00:47:27.540 and said 100% of Iran's nuclear capacity has been destroyed.

00:47:31.080 Therefore, Israel can do nothing.

00:47:31.860 Therefore, Israel will get back in your box. 0.96

00:47:34.060 Exactly. 1.00

00:47:34.720 And like with the Syrian, back in, what was it, 2018,

00:47:38.500 we struck the Syrian airfields over the chemical weapons.

00:47:41.500 Because everyone was just like, oh, right,

00:47:42.700 he is prepared to use hard force.

00:47:44.140 Yeah, he is, actually.

00:47:45.920 But whose interest was it in?

00:47:47.500 It was the interest for the hegemony of the United States.

00:47:51.760 It was about the credibility of the United States over that issue.

00:47:55.600 Yep. When he said, when you go too far, you sometimes lose credibility, because then you have to say, we're going to talk about their 10 points, not my 15 points.

00:48:05.520 Exactly. And so this not being done for the purposes of the United States, but for the purposes of Israel, has shown that that's a massive Achilles heel in American foreign policy.

00:48:16.480 um so like but if it helps there is a sort of silver lining to all this that we're going to

00:48:23.200 come into in a minute which is actually america first has kind of come out of this better than

00:48:29.360 you might think and but i just want to read through a couple more of these um it's infuriating to see

00:48:33.420 the grifters on both sides of the aisle if any infuriation when trump strikes iran and also when

00:48:38.100 he shows restraint by not striking iran we can't have it both ways here um which is why the first

00:48:44.100 attack was received well here it was brilliant and the second much longer campaign wasn't because

00:48:51.480 we're not grifting guys yeah we're just telling you what what works and what doesn't this is why

00:48:56.900 i was actually in favor of the black bag in madera so yeah that advances american interest

00:49:00.760 get on with it you know that's you know that actually helps you this doesn't my fellow

00:49:05.580 americans who can't see we're being dragged into this war by a certain country against our interest

00:49:08.940 and now seeing the consequences and really disappointing me and honestly i i i agree you

00:49:14.240 know it's like i'm like i've watched a lot of um what i thought were sort of quite credible american

00:49:20.460 commentators on twitter uh kind of soil themselves over this and it's just like look guys this wasn't

00:49:26.660 a thing for the american empire right when when he was bunker busting iran black bagging maduro

00:49:32.760 that was all for the american empire and totally fine and and we supported it and in this war

00:49:37.980 essentially confirmed multipolarity yes this war made multipolarity become a real and tangible

00:49:44.640 thing as opposed to a talking point well so should we go for that in fact yeah um so i mean there's

00:49:52.760 this is how to raise this there's a very interesting article in the new york times

00:49:58.540 and it is actually worth everybody taking the time to go and read it i mean i wouldn't normally say

00:50:04.600 this about the new york times but essentially this is positioning from within the white house

00:50:10.160 about who is carrying the bag um for what's happened in iran now there's there's a there's

00:50:15.720 a huge number of things to pull out from this but it's clearly from an insider so it starts off

00:50:19.660 talking about a whole series of high level meetings were held in the white house um between

00:50:26.000 senior officials and one of the points that um i i would make from those meetings i mean it goes

00:50:31.460 right down to the levels of who sat in what chair can i actually um bring it up and read some of it

00:50:36.180 out because yeah absolutely it's actually kind of remarkable wherever the mouse is well the point

00:50:40.560 i was going to make about um you know the level of detail that goes into yeah this is leaks from

00:50:46.040 the inside oh 100 i mean this is coming from a book that's going to be coming out about this

00:50:50.560 so whoever had written this was either in the room or got this information from someone who

00:50:55.180 was in the room right but look at look at how this begins a black suv carrying prime minister

00:51:00.040 benjamin netanyahu so the only person who's named on the very first line is netanyahu yes uh he'd

00:51:07.540 been pressing for months for the united states to agree to a major assault on iran which is inside

00:51:12.080 a little ceremony uh he's set he's sat in the cabinet room and the situation whatever they call

00:51:17.500 it right trump sits down but not in his usual position at the head of the room's mahogany

00:51:21.620 conference table instead he took a seat on one side facing large screens mounted opposite the

00:51:26.540 wall mr netanyahu sat on the other side directly opposite the president appearing on the screen

00:51:30.580 behind netanyahu was david barnier the director of mossad israel's foreign uh israel's foreign

00:51:37.160 intelligence agency as well as the israeli military officials arrayed visually behind

00:51:41.440 mr netanyahu they created the image of a wartime leader surrounded by his team well yeah it also

00:51:46.760 kind of creates the image of i'm here to tell you what you need to do yeah we we have all arrived

00:51:54.840 and they carry on about how they made their pitch.

00:52:00.720 And none of Trump's staff are actually very impressed by it, right?

00:52:04.840 This is the interesting thing.

00:52:06.280 They threw Hexeth under the bus as the guy being most enthusiastic about it,

00:52:11.580 whereas Susie Wiles and Marco Rubio and J.D. Vance especially

00:52:18.120 are placed on record as having been deeply opposed to this.

00:52:23.300 General Cain as well to an extent.

00:52:24.840 And the CIA.

00:52:26.660 And the CIA.

00:52:27.340 And the thing is, if this was a success, everybody would be taking credit.

00:52:33.100 Yes.

00:52:34.300 Nobody is taking credit.

00:52:36.040 Instead, they're throwing Pete Hexeth under the bus and blaming Netanyahu, meaning that it was not a success.

00:52:42.000 If it was a political victory, they would have all been saying, it was my idea.

00:52:47.040 I did it.

00:52:48.080 I convinced him.

00:52:49.220 And we got what we wanted.

00:52:50.360 I mean, why are people, you know, bigging up Rubio and Vance

00:52:55.900 for having been cautious against it if it was a win?

00:52:58.380 I mean, clearly.

00:52:59.820 I mean, Israel, Bibi and Hegsef get thrown under the bus in this article.

00:53:05.180 Completely.

00:53:06.140 I mean, look at that.

00:53:07.540 Like, you know, the presentation Netanyahu gives over the next hour

00:53:10.080 would be pivotal in setting the United States and Israel

00:53:12.740 on the path to a major round conflict,

00:53:14.540 and Trump weighed his options and risks before giving the go-ahead.

00:53:17.900 I can't remember where exactly it says.

00:53:20.040 but it says that Trump basically trusted his instincts

00:53:23.280 whereas everyone else, Vance and Rubio in particular,

00:53:28.720 were like, no, this is a terrible idea.

00:53:30.780 And Trump was like, no, I think I'm going to do it.

00:53:32.940 I mean, that's something I've said

00:53:34.120 and it's actually worked for Trump's favour for a long time

00:53:36.760 is he's a gut guy, not a head guy.

00:53:39.080 This was a terrible call.

00:53:40.640 Yeah.

00:53:41.160 And I don't know how persuasive Netanyahu was about this.

00:53:45.940 People point out, well, he's wanted regime change in Iran for decades.

00:53:48.920 yeah he has

00:53:49.720 and maybe that was

00:53:50.400 what coloured his

00:53:51.220 judgement on this one

00:53:52.980 the fact that he's like

00:53:54.600 yeah no I would like

00:53:55.380 to be the guy

00:53:55.860 who gets rid of 0.88

00:53:56.320 the Iranian regime 0.97

00:53:57.060 but you need to

00:53:58.140 spend a lot of time

00:53:59.300 preparing for that

00:54:00.200 and planning for that

00:54:01.360 it probably helps

00:54:02.460 with people like

00:54:02.920 Wyckoff and his

00:54:03.660 son-in-law

00:54:04.140 really help push

00:54:05.880 this as well

00:54:06.480 doubtless

00:54:07.160 but this whole thing

00:54:10.100 was essentially

00:54:11.860 orchestrated by 1.00

00:54:13.000 the Israelis

00:54:13.480 and signed off

00:54:14.380 on by Trump

00:54:15.200 that's the issue

00:54:17.200 here

00:54:18.920 I mean, I've got a relevant bit of text on that.

00:54:21.080 Oh, yeah, you go ahead. 0.61

00:54:21.820 So, I mean, after this Israeli plan had been presented,

00:54:25.780 then the Americans got together afterwards.

00:54:28.060 And this is what I mean about who's getting buried on here.

00:54:30.160 So one extract reads,

00:54:31.680 when Mr. Trump joined the meeting,

00:54:33.540 Mr. Radcliffe, CIA guy, briefed him on the assessment.

00:54:36.800 The CIA director used one word to describe

00:54:39.440 the Israeli prime minister's regime change plan.

00:54:43.160 Farcical.

00:54:44.500 At that point, Mr. Rubio cut in.

00:54:46.780 In other words, it's bullshit, he said.

00:54:48.920 um then there's a whole bunch of other stuff oh then then vance re-enters and uh there's a whole

00:54:54.920 bit about how vance is is just completely against this um general kane um the president said to

00:55:03.220 general kane general what do you think and uh he said sir in my experience a standard operating

00:55:07.920 procedure for the israelis they oversell their plans they're not well developed they know they

00:55:13.360 need us and that's why they're hard selling and then trump summed it up by saying and this is the

00:55:18.000 bit where he just goes with his gut is is like okay well that's their problem and it was a bit

00:55:22.080 unclear to the people in the room whether he meant it was the israelis problem or the iranians problem

00:55:26.460 the regime change but he was convinced okay yeah i can do i can do the the bombing of ayatollah

00:55:31.640 khamenei um we can do that bit so we're going to go to it and again so i mean there's another bit

00:55:38.020 further down where um again this is backing up general kane he's saying he general kane would

00:55:44.480 constantly ask and then what and trump would often hear only what he wanted to hear now i mean who

00:55:51.260 comes out of his article well jd vance comes out of his article very well rubio rubio comes out of

00:55:57.460 it as very well he comes across as analytical and conditional you know his support was always

00:56:02.880 condition it was always it's always phrased as um you know i i don't think this will work but if

00:56:08.400 this is what you want to do mr president then then i'll back you up on it so that's you know

00:56:13.040 that that makes him sound good uh john ratcliffe from the cia he comes out well well on this um

00:56:19.220 the military guy general kane he comes out mostly well on it because his whole pitch in this is that

00:56:24.900 he said it was a bad idea but i'll do whatever you want boss so again that makes him look loyal but

00:56:29.980 but this this is the key quote here this is standard operating procedure for the israelis

00:56:34.960 and it's completely true i mean how many decades yes has netanyahu been saying we're on the two

00:56:38.840 weeks away from a nuke that was back in the 90s he was saying that it's like oh by the way they're

00:56:43.680 two weeks away yeah okay i've heard this before yes you know they oversell and their plans are

00:56:48.320 not always well developed because as far as the israelis are concerned this will become america's

00:56:52.380 problem it's great yeah no let the israeli plan is to get america involved exactly let them go

00:56:56.820 they don't have to develop the rest of it yeah exactly no america being in a long war is the

00:57:01.180 point exactly because yeah and with a long war with a powerful enemy yeah well great because

00:57:06.080 we're going to have free reign in the region around us to do whatever we want and no one's

00:57:09.520 going to intervene because iran's a bit busy at the moment which is why they're escalating their

00:57:13.020 attacks on the palestinians and including palestinian christians and lebanon i mean the

00:57:18.180 people who come out really badly from the series of leaks i mean i wouldn't say really badly

00:57:21.360 donald trump comes across as being poorly advised more than anything yeah but but even then the

00:57:27.320 advice was good actually from what we see it's it's weirdly his own predilection for netanyahu

00:57:35.420 It seems to be the issue.

00:57:36.900 This does not go after Trump nearly as hard as it could have done.

00:57:40.920 And would have done, say, 10 years ago.

00:57:42.780 And the reason is, is because this is all based on insider leaks.

00:57:46.220 I mean, it makes the point really on in the, really on in the article,

00:57:49.800 the gathering had been kept deliberately small to guard against leaks.

00:57:53.300 So it was a very small selection of people.

00:57:54.740 So basically somebody in there has given their blessing to this being leaked.

00:57:58.280 Yeah, well, it's not even a leak, is it, actually?

00:58:01.180 It's kind of a, well, I mean, you know, lead article of New York Times.

00:58:04.800 it's a tell-all yeah i mean if i had to put my money on it i would say that um uh vance and

00:58:11.040 rubio have given the nod to their underlings yeah you can have some very quiet conversations with

00:58:17.720 some journalists and get this out they're basically trying to better position themselves

00:58:21.400 for the 2028 election yeah by saying we had nothing to do with this war but this is actually

00:58:27.160 surprisingly good news for sort of maga and america first actually oh yes yes vance and

00:58:32.780 rubio the two leading lights of trump's administration are not just zio neocons i mean

00:58:39.940 i suppose it's not even completely impossible that trump gave some mild blessing to this

00:58:44.700 because he's not going to run up again for election and maybe he's like okay fine we'll

00:58:48.440 boost up rubio and and the only person i'm absolutely certain did not leak all of this

00:58:53.320 detail is peter hegseff because he comes across as a bloody idiot in all of this so well he did 0.54

00:58:58.280 in the um you saw the um the was a congressional uh thing where he was just sat there going how 0.56

00:59:05.000 many generals you fired i don't know it's like what do you mean you don't know how many generals

00:59:07.780 you fired it was eight apparently and it's just like come on you should know that it's like why

00:59:12.000 did you fire them well they're serving at trump's pleasure it's like okay but that doesn't explain

00:59:15.040 why you fired them like and the answer is they were obviously like no this would be crazy yeah

00:59:19.760 um if you i mean if you want to be in the room when um hard-hitting things are discussed i

00:59:25.860 suggested buy a ticket for the Lotus Eater's live event,

00:59:28.700 which is going to be taking place on Saturday.

00:59:32.300 And it's slightly less monumental than this.

00:59:34.180 Well, I don't know.

00:59:35.440 That's debatable.

00:59:37.540 Come and say hi to our protesters.

00:59:38.960 So the statement from the press secretary,

00:59:42.220 you know, claiming it as a win for the United States.

00:59:44.620 Okay, fair enough.

00:59:45.560 From the beginning of Operation AIPAC Fury,

00:59:48.520 President Trump said it would be a four to six week operation.

00:59:51.860 It's okay, fine.

00:59:52.760 You know, that's important.

00:59:53.640 It is kind of, let's go back to it.

00:59:55.520 It's kind of embarrassing, though, where it's like, look, man,

00:59:59.460 we support Trump, we support America, we want America to do well,

01:00:05.160 but this is sort of sounding a bit North Korean, you know?

01:00:10.220 Yeah.

01:00:10.760 It's like, the success of our military created maximum leverage,

01:00:15.200 allowing Trump and the teams to engage in tough negotiations,

01:00:17.600 so it's not actually apparent.

01:00:20.360 Nope, it really isn't.

01:00:21.880 so the the the americans are debating amongst themselves as to whether this is a win or a loss

01:00:29.280 and that debate is looking extremely lively um at the moment with you know arguments on both sides

01:00:36.160 and i think you know broadly where we're saying we're probably more on the the tucker side of

01:00:40.620 things um and i mean even um was it alex jones alex jones called for the 25th amendment to be

01:00:47.740 invoked for a trump yeah i mean i even i don't go that far so no he went way harder than i think

01:00:51.860 he should but he was on what i think is the right side of the argument broadly yeah so anyway the

01:00:57.260 americans are arguing amongst themselves and it's a it's a question in in that collective

01:01:02.060 consciousness about whether this was a win or a loss i can tell you where there is no doubt that

01:01:06.520 this is a loss uh no doubt whatsoever this is where the surprising win for america first comes

01:01:10.920 out right yeah um this is um the former prime minister of israel there's never been such a 0.84

01:01:17.860 political disaster in all of our history israel wasn't i mean there was that roman bit i guess but

01:01:23.840 i mean there have been a few terrible disasters in israeli history actually yeah so i mean okay

01:01:33.140 so the babylonian bit before that then the syrian bit before that then the egyptian bit before that

01:01:38.560 So, I mean, it's not...

01:01:40.300 Yeah, actually, the Egyptian bit wasn't good either. 1.00

01:01:42.380 Yeah, there have been a few bumps on the road, 1.00

01:01:45.320 but I don't think this...

01:01:46.160 But anyway, this is...

01:01:46.760 Maybe he means since 1948.

01:01:48.880 Yeah.

01:01:49.260 Okay, so there has never been such a political disaster

01:01:51.360 in all our history. 1.00

01:01:52.300 Israel wasn't even at the table

01:01:53.740 when the decisions were made

01:01:55.060 concerning the core of our national security.

01:01:57.400 I mean, Netanyahu's right there.

01:01:58.640 What are you talking about?

01:01:59.480 Well, yes.

01:02:00.540 Well, for getting into the war,

01:02:02.040 not getting out of the war.

01:02:02.760 Yeah, yeah, yeah. 1.00

01:02:03.580 I'm guessing Bibby was not invited back

01:02:06.220 for the meeting when they decided to get out.

01:02:07.660 um the military carried out everything asked of it public demonstrated its amazing resilience but

01:02:12.300 netanyahu publicly failed and strategically every goal that he set himself and i mean it's it's not

01:02:18.120 just that area former chief of staff netanyahu lied he promised a historic victory security for

01:02:24.280 generations and in practice we got one of the most severe strategic failures israel has ever known

01:02:29.800 um i mean there's lots and you might say okay well those guys are opposition politicians in

01:02:35.560 israel and therefore you can you can fully expect it um we've been scrolling through israeli twitter

01:02:42.520 this morning and it's grim oh yeah because the thing is they can see the reality of the situation

01:02:49.740 is yes now iran is the regional hegemon and america's myth of invincibility is shattered

01:02:54.660 right yeah exactly this is bad news and if you want to know you know if you're sat in like

01:03:01.000 you know Oklahoma or something debating the pros and the cons yes well yeah you can do that because 0.72

01:03:05.660 you're in a nice air-conditioned room with no danger on either side but if you're in Israel 0.82

01:03:09.160 right now actually yes very real and very much on I mean Nick Florentis and Cat Turd can go with

01:03:15.460 each other all day long you know nothing is going to happen to them if you're in Tel Aviv it's it's

01:03:20.760 a it's a somewhat different story yes so I mean we take you through um you know some of the some

01:03:27.140 of Hebrew Twitter, when it would look like Iran might get nuked.

01:03:34.180 Biblical times are going to happen at midnight.

01:03:36.800 Are you ready? 0.73

01:03:37.660 There was an element of excitement when it might be Iran getting nuked.

01:03:40.740 And the thing is, you can tell they got so high on their own supply here.

01:03:43.740 And I get the feeling that Netanyahu was as well

01:03:46.880 and the entire sort of Israeli government. 0.91

01:03:49.320 This is a complete rug pull as far as the Israelis are concerned. 0.98

01:03:51.900 Oh, yes. 1.00

01:03:53.060 The worst kind of rug pull.

01:03:56.100 Yeah.

01:03:57.040 Yeah, but once the ceasefire had been announced,

01:03:59.520 he's like, well, the Straits of Hormuz was open even before the war.

01:04:03.560 I didn't sit in a shelter for 40 days or nights

01:04:05.820 to open the Strait of Hormuz.

01:04:07.680 What if you did?

01:04:08.860 Well, yeah, it turns out you did.

01:04:10.540 It turns out you did.

01:04:11.800 Yep.

01:04:14.480 Who is he complaining?

01:04:15.360 Oh, yeah, this is complaining about Netanyahu.

01:04:17.040 For 30 years, he's been messing with our heads about Iran.

01:04:19.580 Finally, there's a chance to do something about it and he fails.

01:04:22.180 For 20 years, he's been complaining that Hezbollah wasn't disarmed.

01:04:24.820 finally has a chance to do something about any fails. 0.74

01:04:27.440 For 17 years, he'd been promising he'd dismantle Hamas. 0.66

01:04:31.380 Finally, there's a chance to do these fails.

01:04:33.020 So this is, I mean, there are pages and pages.

01:04:36.840 Yeah, Netanyahu's a loser.

01:04:38.880 Yeah. 1.00

01:04:39.080 Say the Israelis. 1.00

01:04:40.820 You know, they were hoping for the Stone Age stuff. 1.00

01:04:43.560 Yeah.

01:04:44.080 They didn't get it.

01:04:46.640 Find out about a ceasefire from a missile alert siren, classic. 0.97

01:04:50.780 um may may islam take europe the usa and may the burn world burn already thanks david yeah 0.77

01:04:58.900 appreciate the sentiment uh is it just me or does it feel like defeat no it's not just you

01:05:03.640 um everybody with this israeli flag i think is that kind of sentiment may islam take europe the

01:05:09.880 usa yeah yeah okay um ceasefire is a very bad idea for the future of the iranian people

01:05:18.340 and for Israel and the US.

01:05:21.220 Okay.

01:05:22.700 I don't like it at all.

01:05:23.820 This is a weak move and a wrong move.

01:05:25.540 Finish the job.

01:05:26.420 Terminate the regime.

01:05:27.400 Well, it's not as easy to do.

01:05:30.860 Yeah.

01:05:31.360 No.

01:05:32.700 Expressing lack of concern for the Straits of Hormuz

01:05:34.740 because it was never about that. 0.96

01:05:36.300 It was about crippling Iran.

01:05:38.260 Iran has not conceded anything. 0.98

01:05:40.940 You know, the time has come. 0.99

01:05:42.700 Eliminate the regime.

01:05:45.200 Lots of expressing of disappointment about this.

01:05:47.960 Dear Trump, what did you do all of this for?

01:05:49.940 That's the question, isn't it?

01:05:51.140 That really is the question.

01:05:52.220 That's the question underpinning.

01:05:52.960 And from his perspective, you supposedly did it for him, you know?

01:05:58.220 Netanyahu asked you to do it for Israel.

01:05:59.860 And he thinks this is terrible.

01:06:03.020 Trump basically didn't commit.

01:06:05.540 No.

01:06:06.220 I don't think, maybe you didn't understand what the Israelis were actually asking for.

01:06:10.720 Yep.

01:06:11.480 Because what they were kind of asking for is a million-man ground invasion of Iran

01:06:15.420 to literally expunge, like, debathify Iran from the Mueller's regime.

01:06:22.460 So this wouldn't be a regional power.

01:06:25.120 But you can see the Israeli logic. 0.92

01:06:26.300 The Israeli logic was, we just need to get you to bomb the Ayatollah, 0.73

01:06:31.780 get into a conflict, and that will inevitably drag you into a 30-year conflict. 0.72

01:06:35.980 Like it did with Iran and Afghanistan.

01:06:37.200 What Trump heard was what they actually said.

01:06:40.860 And what they actually said is, oh, yeah, this is easy.

01:06:43.740 It will be over in 48 hours.

01:06:44.880 so he was like

01:06:45.940 okay cool

01:06:46.520 you can just bomb it 0.59

01:06:47.280 because Netanyahu

01:06:47.980 in the New York Times article

01:06:49.020 did say you can bomb them

01:06:50.000 and the people will rise up

01:06:50.900 and Trump's like

01:06:52.040 oh great

01:06:52.440 there'll be an uprising

01:06:53.200 Will there

01:06:53.560 that'll be easy for us then

01:06:55.040 here's a few bombs

01:06:55.840 yeah

01:06:56.260 yep

01:06:56.960 and Rubio and Vance

01:06:58.360 from the New York Times article

01:06:59.500 and General Cain

01:07:00.400 and the CIA

01:07:00.980 all sat there and saying

01:07:01.940 no the Israelis

01:07:03.180 are bullshitting us

01:07:04.760 but Trump was like

01:07:05.860 no no I believe them

01:07:06.700 and he went ahead

01:07:08.360 and when he didn't get it

01:07:10.440 I mean yeah okay

01:07:11.100 it took a month

01:07:11.880 instead of

01:07:12.520 yeah you know instead of the the two weeks but you know he was like yeah okay fine i'm out

01:07:18.060 doing it um kosher says i don't know how i feel about this um but the next guy's like well this

01:07:24.780 makes me sick and there's just pages and pages of this stuff this will be seen as weakness by

01:07:30.000 the entire middle east trump just shared i can't pronounce that post that actually that he accepted

01:07:35.720 the regime's 10 point proposal yeah that's the thing i i retweeted this but like trump didn't

01:07:40.380 concede to this did he onto it because i i've been following it i logged on like 11 o'clock or

01:07:44.580 something and i see this like and i'm like there's no way like trump has conceded this 10 point

01:07:49.860 proposal because this is it looks like total capitulation if you just accept now i did at

01:07:53.820 the time i didn't realize that he was going to negotiate these things with iran but i mean you

01:07:57.760 know okay uh but like mental and yeah you have that this of course will be seen as weakness by

01:08:03.100 the entire middle east that's because it is more more than just the middle east uh i'm so angry

01:08:08.080 dejected and heartbroken trump instantly went from hero to zero are you disappointed the ceasefire

01:08:13.160 i'm disgusted we were in shelters missiles over our head while millions of innocent iranians lost

01:08:19.100 hope um oh i think we've heard that sorry it seems that the iranians pulled for their own government

01:08:24.200 i don't really accept this kind of oh we're annexing the freedom-loving iranians because

01:08:28.840 we hate the mullahs i don't like the mullahs either but the fact of the matter is they didn't

01:08:33.380 try to overthrow their own government no they didn't you know in interest terrifying comment

01:08:38.480 isn't it yeah um yeah david yerman says whoever guesses in the comments when turkey and egypt

01:08:44.100 conquer us iran drops an atomic bomb on us because because i mean that is the narrative is that you

01:08:49.660 know we do iran and then we need to take on turkey and egypt and and um noam dances just says well

01:08:57.280 we have got the samsung which are yeah israel's secret nuclear weapons 0.93

01:09:02.560 aimed at nuking the whole world or the whole region when they feel threatened enough and so 0.97

01:09:10.720 the the idea being expressed here we would rather burn the whole wide world than yeah compromise

01:09:19.700 with the people who live next to us i have heard reports but because it's just secondhand reports 0.75

01:09:26.360 I've seen speculation that I think it was China and possibly Pakistan have communicated to the to the Israelis that if you nuke Tehran, we will nuke you.

01:09:39.300 I don't know if that's real or not, but I haven't seen that.

01:09:43.000 OK, that's interesting.

01:09:46.020 Since October the 7th, I haven't felt so humiliated as an Israeli as I do tonight.

01:09:51.180 This is loss is an understatement.

01:09:52.720 Can't fall asleep.

01:09:53.480 so yeah i mean you know while the americans are arguing about whether this is a win or loss

01:09:57.660 israelis are in absolutely no doubt yeah that this is a loss so overall it might be a bit of

01:10:03.680 a bloody nose for america but actually i don't think it's a terrible event for america first 0.74

01:10:08.540 because no no it's not the zionists are completely routed discredited yes and discredited within the

01:10:19.000 America First administration? The question is, will the neoconservatives try everything that

01:10:25.020 they can to bring Trump back into it? And will Trump listen? I'm sure they will. I'm sure they

01:10:31.640 will. Will he listen to them? Because Congress can do all kinds of things to make sure that Trump

01:10:38.840 can't actually fulfill an agreement, which is what they did with the Obama deal. And so Lindsey

01:10:45.920 graham is now saying well we want any agreement to be ratified by congress and given how many

01:10:51.660 congress members take apac money you know how they're going to vote and so they're going to

01:10:57.840 either they're going to turn either trump goes back into the war or they turn on each other yeah

01:11:04.340 but if if you're like a an america first type person this isn't the most disappointing result

01:11:10.560 actually no and in a way it's kind of similar to our zero seats where it's just you know you have

01:11:15.840 to flush out all of these people and give them a massive i mean i'll jump i'll jump ahead a bit

01:11:20.920 because i mean when you think of american first you often think of someone like nick fluentes i

01:11:25.680 mean i'll play and actually i don't agree with him here let's just listen to a bit of it this is a

01:11:29.660 complete and total u.s defeat this is an absolute there is no ambiguity here it's not debatable

01:11:38.540 it's not subject to interpretation we lost decisively it's like i said i mean he's not

01:11:47.560 wrong on that but like the scale of the defeat for israel is far greater than it is for america

01:11:53.780 if i was nick fluentes i would be very happy right now because because the israeli lobby has

01:11:59.460 just been comprehensively crushed crushed yeah but the america first lobby is just standing there

01:12:05.820 the bloody nose saying okay i didn't really enjoy that yep but i'm not down like you know the

01:12:10.640 america first guys in the trump administration were like no i don't agree with this at all

01:12:14.800 they've still got a really solid reputation in fact vance's reputation comes out of this better

01:12:19.600 because he was the most hard line against it so like i don't see this i think rubio survives it

01:12:25.160 as well i agreed yeah pete hegsiv obviously doesn't but you know maybe maybe you can stay

01:12:30.220 out of jail what was the the guy in charge of the cia as well um he came out of it all right as well

01:12:35.180 and so it's just like actually this is not terrible for the movement that is america first

01:12:40.680 at all and it could be a part of essentially flushing out the bad elements who have got

01:12:45.660 their tentacles in the american government the problem for the neocons now is that no

01:12:49.320 neither party wants them exactly the democrats can't be seen to side with the neocons even

01:12:54.140 though they wanted the war they love to yeah even though they wanted the war not allowed

01:12:57.580 And the Republicans can't side with the neocons.

01:13:00.200 And so now you're going to have this crazy dynamic

01:13:04.600 of purges and counter-purges, essentially,

01:13:08.640 to see where they end up.

01:13:11.500 I mean, why would you want to hear

01:13:12.940 from any of these sorts of people ever again?

01:13:15.420 Well, because Trump was saying

01:13:17.220 you should listen to Mark Levin.

01:13:18.280 Exactly, because he...

01:13:20.300 And you can see it literally came down to

01:13:22.740 Trump's sympathy for Netanyahu in Israel.

01:13:25.240 Exactly.

01:13:25.540 That's what this came down to.

01:13:26.580 Yes.

01:13:26.780 And if the next guy doesn't have that, that's it for them.

01:13:30.140 I'm expecting Witkoff and Kushner to be out very soon.

01:13:34.940 Very soon.

01:13:36.320 They are, supposedly the negotiations in Islamabad and Pakistan

01:13:40.520 are going to happen with J.D. Vance.

01:13:43.060 Right.

01:13:43.660 Not with Witkoff and Kushner.

01:13:45.140 Oh, really?

01:13:45.480 And Witkoff and Kushner, I haven't confirmed this yet.

01:13:48.380 Right.

01:13:48.780 And Witkoff and Kushner, when they went to negotiate

01:13:51.580 with the Iranians over the nuclear issue,

01:13:53.120 did not bring a technical team

01:13:55.280 because they wanted the talks to fail.

01:13:57.980 And so the British brought a technical team

01:14:00.420 to negotiate on behalf of the Americans.

01:14:03.420 Right.

01:14:04.660 Okay.

01:14:05.460 So...

01:14:05.940 Very interesting.

01:14:06.380 What this means then

01:14:08.400 is that the sort of Zionist slash neocon faction

01:14:11.260 is just without any leverage whatsoever now.

01:14:14.780 They are fatherless.

01:14:16.380 Yes.

01:14:17.280 Yeah.

01:14:17.720 Completely adrift at this point.

01:14:19.860 Yep.

01:14:20.140 And they seem to be well aware of this.

01:14:21.800 I mean, this is Mark Levin.

01:14:23.120 that's my fear

01:14:24.980 if we're going to have

01:14:26.180 some kind of deal

01:14:27.040 Donald Trump

01:14:28.400 won't be around forever

01:14:29.460 to ensure

01:14:30.940 that it's in force

01:14:32.420 that's number one

01:14:33.280 if I trust him

01:14:34.400 number two

01:14:34.760 I don't trust the enemy

01:14:35.800 look at his hand

01:14:37.460 look at his hand

01:14:38.220 the hand is shaking

01:14:39.400 you can hear the voice tremble

01:14:40.820 you can see the hand shaking

01:14:42.000 I mean this is a man

01:14:42.800 who knows

01:14:43.140 look at his expression

01:14:44.060 just oh my god

01:14:45.480 completely broken

01:14:46.040 yeah

01:14:46.360 and I tell you what

01:14:47.780 if there's one person

01:14:48.520 I want to see 1.00

01:14:49.040 taking a big fat L

01:14:50.380 it's someone like Mark Levin

01:14:51.520 yes

01:14:52.060 No, we do cancel people, shouldn't you?

01:14:54.360 I hate him, hate him, absolutely hate him.

01:14:57.620 But this is a man who knows, he's not doing a cat turd.

01:15:02.140 He's not trying to say that this is a win.

01:15:04.060 He knows that he's lost.

01:15:07.440 Of course, we should give an honourable mention to...

01:15:11.560 That basically would rather destroy him than the enemy.

01:15:13.860 Stop talking.

01:15:16.440 Jigsaw. 1.00

01:15:18.240 How does Laura Looma take it? 1.00

01:15:19.780 Negotiation is a negative for our country 1.00

01:15:22.540 I assume she needs Israel 1.00

01:15:23.540 That's the thing you can't tell 0.93

01:15:25.460 We didn't really get anything out of it 0.99

01:15:28.320 And the terrorists in Iran are celebrating

01:15:29.640 I don't know why people are acting like this is a win 1.00

01:15:32.320 Agreed

01:15:32.820 The Muslims, the woke Reich and the Trump haters

01:15:34.920 Are using this negotiation to attack President Trump

01:15:36.780 They praise the allies of Tucker Carlson

01:15:38.760 And call for the 25th Amendment to be used against President Trump

01:15:40.800 But the thing is

01:15:41.620 The sort of

01:15:43.020 The Buchananites

01:15:45.100 In the American right are vastly strengthened by this

01:15:48.220 Because they can say

01:15:49.240 look and that let us down the garden path and look where it got us new york times that literally

01:15:54.860 puts israel front and center it's israel persuaded trump to do this and the actual sort of like the

01:16:00.740 american authentic right embodied in vance were completely against it who was right who was wrong

01:16:05.880 well according to laura laura loomer the buchananite right was right as always as they always

01:16:11.440 have been because i wish i'd figured out myself well and go and academic agent is doing the quote

01:16:17.400 tweeting here i mean he he's got this cope theory that the deep state is trying to expunge um israel

01:16:24.040 israeli influence maybe that's a strengthened theory and i mean honestly the way i see that

01:16:29.020 is i'm sure there is a pro-israeli and an anti-israeli element within the deep state

01:16:33.160 the anti-israeli element within the deep state has just got a massive shot in the arm not just

01:16:38.580 that israel has become a strategic liability yes the issue for the americans now and really for

01:16:44.540 the israelis is that now they know that they are an albatross hanging around america's neck 0.56

01:16:50.040 that they don't actually add strategic value that all they do is extract and that they are a massive

01:16:58.600 strategic burden on the united states that's why they're reacting so badly and i'm just looking at

01:17:05.540 what's going on they are bombing the shit out of beirut yeah they're going crazy because they want

01:17:13.720 the ceasefire to fail they want to force trump back into the war well i mean so i don't believe

01:17:20.980 it is existential but they believe it's existential they believe everything's existential that's the

01:17:25.020 problem well then because they believe they never compromise with anyone therefore eventually it

01:17:31.360 does become existential yeah i mean if you force it to be existential then yeah i suppose it does

01:17:36.480 become existential but it doesn't have to be you know it could just be israel takes an l and just

01:17:41.960 returns to the established borders that had and it doesn't get territorial expansion it could be

01:17:47.860 that that for them is a defeat well i mean it would be a defeat but at least it wouldn't be

01:17:51.840 catastrophic they think every defeat is going to be the last one i know i know i mean as as we've

01:17:57.960 made the point throughout the this whole podcast um you know we we're not anti-american we want

01:18:03.040 the very best for america but we can see that you've got a brain parasite sat on the top of

01:18:08.520 your head and the new york times literally told us how it works however no matter how much i want

01:18:14.760 america to succeed i cannot extend that to lindsey graham

01:18:19.200 this this is a turd that needs flushing 1.00

01:18:25.480 yeah any day where lindsey graham doesn't manage to get one of his rare erections is a good day 1.00

01:18:33.000 to be honest. 1.00

01:18:34.060 I hate watching

01:18:35.420 how excited he is 0.69

01:18:37.140 to support Israel's wars. 0.94

01:18:38.580 I hate it. 0.83

01:18:39.720 Did you see him in Disney

01:18:41.560 with a children's toy?

01:18:43.540 No.

01:18:44.080 Why is he allowed

01:18:44.700 near children?

01:18:45.380 Yeah.

01:18:46.440 Isn't he a confirmed bachelor?

01:18:49.360 Lindsey Graham was recently 0.83

01:18:51.040 in, I think, Disney World

01:18:52.820 and he was walking around

01:18:55.180 with a children's toy

01:18:56.280 and I haven't seen anybody

01:18:59.820 able to explain it.

01:19:01.560 I have not heard of that.

01:19:03.000 yeah it's really weird there are photos and everything and um the guy gives me the gives

01:19:10.820 me the creeps same here he looks disgusting yeah yes and i don't you know if i was gonna

01:19:16.060 you know anyway i won't go and go down that road but we're not fans look at this like you know the

01:19:22.100 complete humble pie lindsey graham is eating here well as i stated before i prefer diplomacy if at

01:19:27.980 least the right outcome you mean you got you got being you this guy does not prefer diplomacy

01:19:33.160 no he doesn't like yeah no he doesn't yeah yeah so this isn't lindsey graham eating humble pie

01:19:41.100 which is great yep again if you're an american patriot you should love to see it and i'm sure

01:19:46.000 you will do to be honest yeah yeah exactly and um you know as we keep saying yeah this this is

01:19:53.720 going to be the narrative that comes out of it weirdly vance being the sort of like figurehead

01:19:58.300 of america first and the sort of like then the truly nativist movement in america vance has come

01:20:03.440 out of this carrying you absolutely carrying you as the credible alternative to all of this

01:20:08.660 you know because i mean like there's no way the democrats can say ah well we wouldn't have done

01:20:12.820 that because there are so many videos of hillary clinton being like oh god j if you were like me

01:20:16.080 i'm gonna be bombing iran instantly you know it's gonna be bam bam bam no no one's gonna stop us

01:20:20.080 the only person who comes out of this with any kind of credibility is vance yeah i mean there's

01:20:24.700 that meme that we've seen a hundred times of the bullet going past trump's head and one version is

01:20:30.040 war with iran and then he turns his head and the other version is war with iran is now yeah yeah

01:20:33.760 um but but yeah i mean i mean clearly that that whole that whole leak exercise in the new york

01:20:39.200 times was a bid to to push his chances now maybe it's artificial or whatever it is but

01:20:44.500 you know that that is probably going to be the emergent narrative i i don't know i that might be

01:20:49.140 something that comes just downstream of what the actual intention was because i suspect the

01:20:52.640 intention is really to kind of stitch up the israelis right because that's that's when i

01:20:57.420 read that last guy i was just like that's what they're trying to do this person is not pro-israel

01:21:01.620 who writes this you know no you are you are trying to sever the the israeli brain parasite

01:21:08.160 from the american regime i mean ultimately i've i've got to give credit to trump and not

01:21:13.000 for getting into the situation

01:21:15.000 in the first place

01:21:15.840 but everything after he was in

01:21:19.720 he preserved optionality

01:21:21.640 the whole way through

01:21:22.460 and I will give him this credit

01:21:24.680 he had the bravery

01:21:25.980 to take the smaller win

01:21:27.240 so the smaller loss now

01:21:28.780 than I think 90% of past presidents

01:21:32.560 you know I saw someone tweet

01:21:33.940 something to the

01:21:34.540 was it Collingwood on Twitter

01:21:36.620 he was just like

01:21:37.160 you know I'm actually quite impressed

01:21:38.140 by Trump for taking the L so quickly

01:21:39.520 he could have dragged this out for years

01:21:41.640 I think 90% of past U.S. presidents would have basically just got stuck in this quagmire,

01:21:48.280 would refuse to admit defeat, and it would be down to a predecessor to get them out of it.

01:21:53.740 And he did it within a bit more than a month.

01:21:57.480 So you've got to hand that to him, at least.

01:22:01.060 With that, shall we have a look at some comments?

01:22:04.060 Yeah, we've got notes.

01:22:06.580 American here, do any of you believe that what is happening today will resemble the actual end of this conflict?

01:22:11.160 I don't know.

01:22:11.980 Oh, no, there's definitely, definitely more to play out.

01:22:14.020 Yeah, yeah.

01:22:14.420 I mean, yeah.

01:22:16.120 It really depends on Trump personally.

01:22:18.280 If he puts his foot down, he's handed the region over to Iran,

01:22:21.940 but he's gotten out of the water. 0.86

01:22:23.160 But now what he's going to have to do is put his foot down on Israel, right?

01:22:26.260 So basically he would have to intercede somehow with them, you know, 0.74

01:22:30.180 ultra-bombing Lebanon or whatever they're doing next. 0.94

01:22:32.920 And does he have the willpower to do that?

01:22:35.080 I mean, it seems that he's too sympathetic to Netanyahu.

01:22:38.120 I think Trump would have to feel so personally slighted

01:22:41.840 and embarrassed publicly by what Netanyahu has led him into

01:22:44.900 that he is vengeful on it.

01:22:46.520 But I just don't know.

01:22:47.340 I just don't see it.

01:22:51.280 Bald Eagle says,

01:22:52.120 a foreign country lying to another country?

01:22:53.720 How is your war going to be?

01:22:55.040 Where have I seen this before?

01:22:56.220 Oh, right, all throughout history.

01:22:57.160 Yeah, I know.

01:22:57.560 It's completely common.

01:23:00.580 Should we do the video comments tomorrow?

01:23:03.460 Just because this is a bit of a specific subject.

01:23:06.920 Sure.

01:23:07.080 it's worth keeping on the proper comments um uh sorry uh yeah we read your first post uh the tea

01:23:14.180 party won a long war in the gop uh the real war is between the people trying to extend the old

01:23:18.260 national money energy control system and the people want the new supernational credit control

01:23:22.180 iran has won such battle in that war um that's i think that is one aspect to it you're right

01:23:26.780 um stigil stone i can't read that out

01:23:30.800 but yes

01:23:33.920 probably best

01:23:36.320 to read that one

01:23:36.980 yeah

01:23:37.240 seeing Americans

01:23:38.280 mindlessly support 0.98

01:23:39.140 this swears tier

01:23:39.940 entanglement

01:23:40.500 and throwing venom 1.00

01:23:41.120 at Europeans

01:23:41.640 is a very bad form 1.00

01:23:42.460 yeah it's been

01:23:43.460 disappointing

01:23:44.040 I think

01:23:44.740 so a part of that

01:23:46.600 is real

01:23:47.040 and I suspect

01:23:47.800 a part of it

01:23:48.360 has been bot farms

01:23:49.340 as well

01:23:49.740 agreed

01:23:50.100 and a lot of it

01:23:50.940 is Americans

01:23:51.440 honestly trying to

01:23:52.260 protect their egos

01:23:53.000 because I imagine

01:23:54.260 losing that sense

01:23:55.340 of invincibility

01:23:56.100 isn't pleasant

01:23:56.780 I mean I haven't

01:23:57.820 had it within my

01:23:58.460 lifetime so I don't

01:23:59.260 know

01:23:59.560 but

01:24:00.220 I can well imagine if I was alive during the Dardanelles or the Sui's crisis, 0.95

01:24:04.600 I probably would have been the same, so I can't blame them. 0.85

01:24:06.800 Yeah, yeah, yeah.

01:24:08.980 In his credit, recognising when your intervention failed

01:24:11.100 and avoiding another 30 years in the sandbox is an accomplishment too.

01:24:13.860 Yeah, it is. It is.

01:24:15.380 Yeah, Trump's stuck in the bubble, that's true. 0.96

01:24:18.240 It would have been better to a black-bag Khamenei, like with Maduro, no matter the cost. 1.00

01:24:21.620 I mean, that's true, but that wasn't going to happen. 0.95

01:24:24.880 I'll go through some of the comments on the website.

01:24:26.420 um uh baron von morg says carl the reason iran has so many missiles because israel has been

01:24:32.820 calling for war against them for 40 years yeah i know i'm aware that the iranians have been

01:24:36.880 preparing for this for a long time but uh i just like i didn't know the extent of the

01:24:41.080 infrastructure they'd built up basically um and so many generals resigning uh any anyone could

01:24:48.260 have seen this unwinnable well i mean honestly like you're about to launch a series of operations

01:24:52.640 and you have loads of generals fired or resigning,

01:24:55.980 not good indication.

01:24:59.460 Yeah, it looks bad.

01:25:00.060 Not a good indication for how the thing goes.

01:25:04.860 Jimbo says,

01:25:05.820 it's the campaigning on no more wars thing that gets me.

01:25:09.220 Looks like Netanyahu got his man in the end.

01:25:11.260 The question is, what do they have on Trump

01:25:12.860 and will his ego allow him to back out of the plan?

01:25:15.740 Well, I don't know what they've got on Trump.

01:25:17.460 I think Trump just, like the boomer that he is,

01:25:22.060 has his entire life had nothing but an unvarnished narrative about israel like the american 0.77

01:25:28.020 evangelical boomers like trump's protestant well you know nominally yeah and he's of that era he

01:25:35.780 comes from that culture where it's just oh yeah israel nothing but good there are guys in the 0.85

01:25:40.340 middle east and evil islam is around them it's like yeah okay what he watches fox news exactly 0.94

01:25:44.560 right i mean don't get me wrong i'm not saying there's nothing to that narrative you know no 0.67

01:25:48.580 And no one here is going to be accused of being sympathetic to Islam.

01:25:51.680 But there is a lot more to it than that,

01:25:54.060 that obviously Trump just doesn't feel.

01:25:58.680 Michael says,

01:25:59.460 the US would have been better off continuing with the special forces

01:26:01.540 working with the Iranian resistance.

01:26:03.040 Yeah.

01:26:03.820 Like, just literally anything other than what would essentially

01:26:07.080 just be a full-scale war against the country

01:26:08.760 to rally the population to the regime.

01:26:11.020 Like, literally anything other than that would have been a good idea.

01:26:14.660 You know?

01:26:15.180 Like, it was just such a strange decision.

01:26:19.460 Tristan says,

01:26:20.240 as a moderate who voted MAGA,

01:26:21.380 I do not understand the design MAGA allegedly wants war

01:26:23.740 with Iran to topple them.

01:26:25.040 Well, MAGA doesn't.

01:26:25.900 That's the thing.

01:26:26.460 That's why it's been so weird

01:26:27.400 watching a bunch of American accounts

01:26:29.680 who, as far as I could tell, I thought were MAGA,

01:26:32.660 being like, ah, yes,

01:26:33.520 we're totally for Israel's war against Iran.

01:26:35.640 It's like, no, it's Israel's war. 0.59

01:26:37.300 It's bizarre because he didn't only run against Middle East wars.

01:26:41.500 He ran against this Middle East war.

01:26:43.700 In particular.

01:26:44.440 Yeah.

01:26:45.420 Which is why it's so weird that when Netanyahu's like,

01:26:47.340 right i've got my my guys behind me and here's my pitch trump's like hmm maybe i will do that

01:26:52.460 and for guys like us who listened to you know the the trump campaign and and and said yeah we agree

01:26:59.280 with everything he's running on yes to now get accused of having tds because we support everything

01:27:05.120 that he ran on sorry guys no we were hardcore trump supporters because we liked what he was

01:27:10.720 selling this wasn't it it wasn't the hair i like the hair it was the agenda i mean a lot of people

01:27:16.980 it was funny but but it's it's that new york times article like sorry it's very clear that

01:27:21.860 israel dragged you into this war you were not cheering an american war when america was fighting 0.64

01:27:27.140 its own wars we were cheering america black bad maduro fucking um bunker boss bomb the nuclear 0.73

01:27:33.420 sets that's fine these are all america's goals but this wasn't america's goals so we're not for it 0.84

01:27:38.620 we can see that you're being led by the nose and i i genuinely feel bad for this sort of like

01:27:42.840 excessively online people who've got to now be like well my country's going to war it's like

01:27:47.320 yeah okay but it's going to war for someone else's country it's not your interests yeah

01:27:52.960 a good day for america first a bad day for maga um you see i didn't really see a maga

01:27:59.500 and america first having such distinctions i always thought that you know maga was kind of

01:28:04.640 like you know a nativist it was supposed to be the same thing it was supposed to be but clearly

01:28:09.960 it's not i mean one has got the hooks into it and the other one hasn't that's basically what it is

01:28:16.020 and honestly you know nick fuentes was ahead of the game on that whether you like him or not

01:28:21.020 you know he but i agree with your take though it's like he doesn't seem to understand that

01:28:24.720 america first is one year actually yeah oh yeah yeah it's amazing to see how many americas

01:28:29.580 americans see this as a win it's like as soon as their gas prices go up they'll do anything to

01:28:34.260 bring them down again well again like there is a silver lining to it for the america first 0.90

01:28:39.720 movement there really is um it's going to be very difficult for um the zionists to muster a moral 0.99

01:28:45.980 argument in their own defense in the future yes they're pretty done there you know a lot of people

01:28:51.980 are not happy with israel which um understandable uh michael says one of the problems that has long

01:28:59.780 been that there's long been that the u.s keeps running a magic soil foreign policy run by

01:29:03.840 academics no one seems to understand western thought is unique to the west and failure to

01:29:07.360 comprehend that has cost us dear well this is this is why this didn't go as um as planned yeah

01:29:12.700 yeah yeah absolutely they went into martyrdom mode yeah and you know i don't it kind of has

01:29:19.000 worked for them you know whether you like them or not uh so anyway um i mean there are loads

01:29:25.560 of comments about this but like i don't a lot of them are a bit inflammatory and i don't want to

01:29:31.680 read out anything too inflammatory yeah some of those are let's be nice so yeah it's up anyway

01:29:36.360 someone online says lads i'm going to be honest with you only idiots take trump literally well

01:29:40.080 this is what i was saying like he's not literally going to end the thing he's like an avatar of

01:29:44.040 america and he's hyperbole as a community this is exactly why i wasn't panicked about that and i

01:29:48.960 saw people oh my god he said this you know why are you taking that seriously in block capitals

01:29:54.520 underneath he's like who knows this is not him giving an actual literal statement because even

01:29:59.540 Because even a very small possibility of a nuke

01:30:02.060 is still enough to be concerned about.

01:30:04.320 It's not a possibility of a nuke.

01:30:07.860 Hector Rex says,

01:30:08.880 For us, I've seen rumours that China had a hand in negotiations.

01:30:11.860 Are they actually hurting more than we've been led to believe

01:30:15.380 after losing Venezuela in the Iran war?

01:30:18.260 They are definitely hurting economically,

01:30:21.440 but they are the ones relatively hurting

01:30:24.440 the least of the big economies.

01:30:26.660 They don't want the region to be burned to the ground.

01:30:28.940 They have massive strategic interests there. 0.97

01:30:31.300 They're slowly consolidating over the Muslim world. 1.00

01:30:34.280 They'd rather continue with that process.

01:30:38.140 They're not hurting anywhere near as badly as the Europeans.

01:30:42.040 And the Pakistanis were coordinating everything with the Chinese.

01:30:46.680 And I think that the Chinese kind of pushed Iran a little bit to negotiate.

01:30:52.120 So, no, the Chinese were definitely involved.

01:30:55.220 Lansomel makes a great point.

01:30:56.180 Remember when Israel first broke Trump's ceasefire

01:30:58.500 and he said they don't know what the F they're doing.

01:31:01.320 That's why this was such a surprise,

01:31:03.440 that somehow Netanyahu rolled a 20 on the charisma check

01:31:06.860 and Trump was like, yeah, I will invite you. 0.83

01:31:08.860 But they've defied you and made you look silly in public multiple times

01:31:13.800 and you're still like, yeah, okay, I'm going to allow them to do it.

01:31:16.600 And they do that to every American president.

01:31:18.600 Of course.

01:31:19.080 And what I'm going to say is I just don't understand 0.52

01:31:21.420 the boomer evangelical view on Israel.

01:31:24.700 i just don't i don't get it i don't see it as being you know i mean i you know i'm not religious

01:31:29.840 man so i don't understand but um yeah well so um yeah good news um for america first and i think

01:31:38.920 america in general so congratulations on your win in that respect and uh see you in the next one

The Podcast of the Lotus Eaters - April 08, 2026

The Podcast of the Lotus Eaters #1392

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