The Rizz Is Gone
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Summary
In this episode of the political chat, the lads discuss the current state of the Conservative Party, the Green Party and the Reform Party, and the recent defection from the Tory Party by a Tory backbencher.
Transcript
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hi folks welcome back to another political chat with dan and myself uh we're going to be talking
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about how the the i nearly said the conservative party the reform party same difference well that's
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the we'll talk about that uh is is losing its charisma right as the kids are saying it's lost
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its riz uh and it's beginning to show and i don't think they're going to make it to the finishing
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line as we were saying previously they're trying to carry the ming vase yeah of course the ice
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rink yeah and i don't i don't think they're going to do it um i mean the the reform party has had
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so many conservative defectors as you can see it now has its own wikipedia page and it's it's quite
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extensive actually i mean this is kind of bizarre because their whole pitch is that the tories are
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rotten and of letting you down that was yeah i don't know if i don't think that the lotus eaters
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has a mission statement but if we did it probably would be something like the mainstream media have
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let you down and they're rotten if there was a wikipedia page which was just full of people
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used to work at mainstream media and now work at lotus eaters you would kind of think well it kind
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of undermines the mission statement yeah it would be very bizarre if we hired uh like lewis goodall
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and beth rigby and yes various people from various different mainstream media are trying to make the
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case that we're fundamentally better than them and also that we're we're renegades outside of the
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system yes that doesn't doesn't wash no and this is the same thing and then of course uh they decided
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to take in some labor defectors oh that actually happened while i was away it did do you want to
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do you want to hear his opinion on refugees basically anybody who is lawfully here who's
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a british citizen is a british citizen a british citizen is not determined britain citizenship
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Anybody who is here legally is a British citizen
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and entitled to the full support of the British state.
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Now, I actually am fairly sympathetic towards refugees,
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but no I mean I would like people to be part of one country one community I I delight in the
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different colors in here the different colors of people the different cuisines the different
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clothing I mean that is all good for me I mean I think that so he's making the Piers Morgan Curry
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argument he is making exactly the Piers Morgan Curry I mean this guy sounds like he's going to
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fit right in yes he does what's his name is this guy this chap was uh clive furnace clive so so
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according to clive's logic if i were to move to china and china were to grant me a piece of paper
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that said you're chinese now he would consider me to be a chinaman correct even though i have a
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thousand plus years of british ancestry correct and the chinese would be presumably thrilled that
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you'd set up a fish and chip shop yes this is just diversity this is enriching the culture
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this is them you being just as chinese as them and them being just as british as you
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because again notice what you're saying there well if you get this piece of paper then you're
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entitled to everything it's like okay that's that's great clive you're currently defecting
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from the party that gives 260 000 of these pieces of paper out a year and that's just the ones they
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actually give full citizenship that's not just a visa that's that's to get access to everything and
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I know the big problem is people coming over on planes legally,
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and they will get British citizenship in time as well.
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Yep, the Boris wave with their indefinite leave to remain,
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Shibana Mahmood is moving to make that 10 years.
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why let them stay here and then in 10 years time it's like oh we're gonna have to extend that by
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another five years are we just going to extend this until they've all died of old age well it
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sounds like clive's position is that labor had become too right wing for him so he needed to
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move to reform honestly a lot of people who support the green party make that precise argument
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i bet they do right wing anyway so they seem to be actually constructing a physical uni party
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in the reform party which is a strange thing to do a bunch of uh well frankly failed careerists
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who are going to lose their seats and uh failed careerists who are going to lose their seats
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have come together to join Nigel Farage and so it's very interesting that again you don't seem
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like much of an outsider party if you're the one raising the most money in the British electoral
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system now you can see here that reform have raised more than the Labour and Conservative
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party combined or just yeah just just more actually i think i'm terrible at maths but
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the point is about the same so they're at the top of the lead uh the the leaderboard and so right
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they're out raising everyone by a significant margin i'm three million more than the conservatives
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well i can understand why the donors do this because they want they want to go to the people
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with the power of patronage and it looks like it's going to be reform it does doesn't it uh they uh
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not only uh the best funded political party which doesn't scream outsider to be honest uh guess who
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guess who the donors are would it by any chance be exactly the same donors as it always has been
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it's all formatories so right you you can't see very well because of the way this is but
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christopher harbourn um bitcoin billionaire in thailand has uh given a ridiculous amount of
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money 22 million apparently they've got jeremy hosking a former conservative donor uh then you
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have nicholas he was backing lawrence fox he has given lawrence fox money as well yes right uh to
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be a kind of wild card yeah in political discourse and then you've got nicholas candy who's uh given
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him nearly a million uh which again former conservative donors and so it's just very
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interesting how and then you've got the leave means leave campaign which is also given a huge
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amount of money so and again they were the sort of tory brexit campaign so the conservative donors
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are basically moving across to reform so okay well as well as the mps that's not
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rogue outsiders who didn't previously take an interest and who are now finally the insurrection
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is here uh no it's just billionaire tory donors who are now backing nigel because the tories are
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busted flush this looks like terminator 2 where the t1000 has been you know blasted and is now
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just reforming in a slightly different shape it's exactly that and it's not just the tories either
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it's labor too having a few labor defectors come over yeah well you'll get that i'm pretty sure
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there was a liberal democrat council who defected as well but i couldn't find the information on it
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And so it seems like it's business as usual, right?
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For example, Quasi Quarteng announced that he's got a Bitcoin company
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And is Quasi Quarteng going to defect a reform?
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Is this what I guess we'd call some sort of insider trading
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where it's like, oh, right, so you think Nigel's going to be the next prime minister.
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You've got a bunch of Conservative buddies who have defected over already.
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Are there going to be government contracts involved?
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In particular with Quasi Quartan, because he's so associated with Liz Trust,
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who was actually one of the best prime ministers that the Tory had.
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Not that the Tories had any particularly good prime ministers,
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Because of the association with her, I suspect that Quasi himself won't come over.
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But that's not to say that he won't get some other thing.
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i don't know chairman of the bloody tate or bbc or made a lord or something and at the very minimum
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if reform does do some sort of official government business with bitcoin or cryptocurrency yes who's
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getting the contract yes right so yes it's business as usual and speaking of business as usual
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farage decided he was gonna do a lovely stunt in a petrol station in derbyshire where he
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had the petrol station pimped out in reform colors and said look here are the prices now
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but when we take over they're going to be one pound 26 rather than one pound 47 or something
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like that so we're going to we're going to reduce the price of petrol so right this is a stunt
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this is just a stunt i don't even know how he gets to that because petrol forecourts are price
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takers not price setters sure uh but he well his argument is he's going to abolish green levies
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on fuel so right i mean and don't get me wrong great but everyone should be pledging to abolish
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levies again you can't because these have all been written into contracts so they'd have to
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tear up existing contracts in order to do this stuff so well these are complex questions that
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i'm sure that's the sort of answer that in fact robert jenrich would have given say look you you
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were part of the tory government you're in power 14 years why didn't you abolish the green levies
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and he'd be like well yes the same music we had the boris wave is because it suited us at the time
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yeah we couldn't really it was a bit there as you said there are a lot of contracts there's a lot of
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um intertwining chords that connect all of these things together we can't just cut them all because
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it'll be chaos so um you know you can say what you like but what was interesting about this
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is that at this point he has a bit of a meltdown because he's being gently probed by beth rigby
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on a subject uh she's not in any way impolite or impertinent either but look at nigel's response
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thank you for answering that so uh comprehensively you're pledging to cut fuel duty uh and pressing
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the government to do so but you also pledged or some of your candidates did to cut council tax
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when they were trying to win elections at local level and that's gone up so how can anyone trust
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anything you say. Wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong. Never once
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last year in the county campaign, including here in Derbyshire, did
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I ever say that we can't count. But some of your candidates did
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said because they've put it up. You can listen if you want to or we can jack it in
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now. It's entirely up to you. I'm listening. We sent out literature with
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national messaging which said end net zero appropriately stop the boats and cut taxes
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that was national messaging on individual county messaging we said nothing of the kind
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only one party last year campaigned in the locals saying they would cut council tax and they're
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called the conservative party so we'll stop there but you can see very stressed out well and also
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So it's not obvious to me why cutting taxes is a bad thing.
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No, no, no. Mass deportations is completely possible.
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Actually, cutting council taxes is actually impossible,
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as they discovered when they set up their Doge UK unit,
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since Zia Yusuf, I think it was down to Kent County Council,
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and found that they couldn't actually do anything
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because the spending is mandated by the central government.
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so you have to have this you have to have that you have to have x amount for redistributive
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funding and yes all mandated by the central government and then they're like right okay
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so what does that mean well that means we've got to raise council taxes by five percent
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so it's it's true that about 80 90 percent of council spending is statute spending meaning
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they have no choice on it but the point is if you become a government you can change the statutes
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yes and actually if you look at council budgets the majority of it is it's moving money around
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from people who work to people who don't it's adult social care it's stuff like that you you
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can change that you can but the the issue is he can't do it until he is in government right and
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farage and reform apparently didn't realize this because they did say we're going to cut council
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waste we're going to cut council spending and notice how he's being very specific well in this
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place i didn't say it's like okay that's great yes but the implied message that people took away
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the sort of banner headline is nigel farage is going to reduce council taxes and that's why
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beth rigby has come to me said but you said you were going to reduce council taxes and he's like
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yeah uh well actually how about if i reduce i cut taxes by not putting them up as much
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this is an amazing on the politics last year's local elections promise to reduce
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waste waste and cut your taxes most of the councils that you took control of are putting council tax
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up including kent 3.99 so across the country we're putting up council tax less than the other
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parties where they control councils our average increase is less than the rate of inflation
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we've made over 300 million pounds of savings across the councils and by the way i never said
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we cut i never said we your looflet said cut your taxes well which means don't charge the maximum
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This is the problem he's getting into. He's trying to run
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old definition of cutting which is not putting up as much
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used to i remember years ago i was in i was in the house of commons having dinner with a conservative
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mp and he he was running a department he was telling me about all the cuts he's having to make
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and i'm saying to him you do realize that your spending is still going up and he's like no it's
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not and i said i i said it is your spending the whole government spending including your department
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spending is going up and we argued about this for 20 minutes in the end we we got up and we went to
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the house commons library and we dug out the um the treasury book and i showed him there and he
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was like and he couldn't believe it and i said what what you've mistaken is is that they were
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scheduled to go up whatever it was like four and a half percent and they're only going up 3.9
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percent and and that's what you that's why you're having to make cuts because the cost of everything
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is going up um but you think you're having to make these a few cuts what you're doing is rearranging
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where the increase goes due to inflation and and he and he looked at me like he just i'd blown his
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mind entirely but this is the point doesn't nigel just sound like one of the old guard here yeah he
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he is exactly what the tories were correct and his party is full of tories yes and it's backed
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by tories and now he sounds like a tory and so you can't help but feel that uh no amount of
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stunts in front of uh blinged out petrol station is going to change any of this uh but the thing
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is it didn't uh stop um i mean well people obviously recognize it as a stunt didn't stop
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beth rigby for essentially campaigning for farage i mean as you can see yeah she's just uh well
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reform are going to subsidize prices at a petrol station in buxton to promote their proposals cut
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fuel duty i mean can they even do that i mean i suppose they're even allowed to do that is that
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not that electioneering in some way paying they actually sell the petrol i mean we're not in an
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election period but i mean in an election period you can't even buy one of your uh you can't buy
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perspective constituents a pint or something yeah so you but maybe you're allowed to bribe them when
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it's not an election i've never checked i guess as far as i'm aware there's no legal action against
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farage on this yeah so who knows but um but beth reed be there just promoting what he's doing
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rather than being critical of it so and she was the one asking the question she wasn't being
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excessively uh aggressive or probing it was just well you did say this is that correct and farage
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had a little meltdown over it it's like right okay so there's a lot of stress there in what is now
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just the official uni party and then you have this that came out reform uk says is very interested
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in taking mi5 up on its offer to help political parties vet candidates amid fears of hostile
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states meddling british politics right okay so the problem here is that the moment mi5 say
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we have a concern about this person this person this person reform instantly have to get rid of
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them it's hope not hit on steroids yes because otherwise what happens if there's a year later
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and something comes up about one of those candidates reform wales leader who was
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taking money from the russians yeah well not even that i mean i mean if if a headline comes up a
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year later mi5 advised of dropping this candidate and they didn't they can't take that risk so what
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they've effectively done is handed the deep state complete carte blanche to edit the reform candidate
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list and the only people you're going to get through are the people who have the most blandest
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possible opinions and i remember having this conversation because myself and beau were reform
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candidates um for a while before we got thrown out for being one inch to the right of nigel
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at the time and we met other reform candidates and you know not wanting to be rude about them
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They're just normies who just get all of their opinions
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which was any different to what they had just watched on the TV.
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I'm sure they're all lovely people, hardworking.
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Yeah, I'm sure they're fine, but they're normies.
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A conversation with them is a conversation with the TV.
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And I think what reform wants is basically bland people
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for whatever it is um you know let's say they get they get 200 seats they want they want 180 of them
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to be completely bland and then 20 people at the top who decide everything yeah i mean i didn't
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include the clip but i was watching um the isle of white rally that they did recently uh lots of
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great beards right you can just tell it just a sea of white head uh heads and at one point nigel
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farage again sounding quite honestly i don't want to say desperate but i haven't got a better word
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for it he said look there's a sign up sheet at the back go and sign up so you can be you can stand as
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a candidate for us and you think that with 270 000 members which is what they allegedly have
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they'll have no shortage of candidates all over the place you think they'll be everywhere it's
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like right come and sign up so you can be vetted by mi5 to join the insurgent party hope not hate
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Are you going to quit that so that you can run for reform
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and if they discover something, they'll open a file on you,
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trying to even get through an airport from that point on?
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in any in any way shape or form this is more of the same and we see this constantly so the the
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next thing i want to talk about is faraj on iran because what's interesting about this is how bad
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his political instincts were so the the fact the second donald trump sent his fleet over to iran
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and started bombing them uh starmer's response was well we weren't involved and we don't really
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want to get involved which actually okay that's that's all right i know right yeah like of of all
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of the decisions starmer has made this is probably the best is he stuck to it because i've been away
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for this whole thing he has stuck to it okay uh we we haven't got directly involved they've tried
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they've sent one ship called the dragon but i don't think it's arrived yet because it was probably
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doesn't work anyway well that that's the problem half of it we've only got about 30 ships half of
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them are out of action and we finally got this one off the other day so it's probably not even there
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yet and it's not going to do a lot and we've been refusing them access to our bases and things like
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this so it's been okay well that's yeah it's been quite controversial frankly yeah but farage came
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out as an iran war hawk this is pathetic why aren't we doing something about this why aren't
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we bombing schools in iran yeah i mean literally they bombed a girls school the other day so not
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going to age well i don't really want to be involved i've got no particular desire to be in
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a war with iran why are we two minutes into this we've already found two examples of how labor are
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the right of reform yeah that's that's a great question i wasn't even trying to make that point
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um but notice how farage is fully on the neocon plantation here it's just like no this my entire
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party is business as usual and when it comes to whatever america and israel are doing in the
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middle east it's business as usual this is the same yeah it's the same uh philosophy and in some
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cases the same people who are advocating for iraq or advocating for afghanistan i mean pete
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hegseth claims to have been a neocon up until 2022 when he had a damascene conversion he was
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like yeah no i was wrong about all that and now oh actually but not not with iran it's like
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okay but this is just more of the same uh and what's interesting is the lack of harmony within
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reform uh because jenry came out and said uh yeah i don't think we should be involved in this
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actually and he posted a big wall of text on twitter uh saying much the same as he says in
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this interview and so the question is well why why does farage want to jump in and i think farage
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basically wants to be buddies with donald trump trump has done this it's unpopular in america
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uh it's unpopular over here but we'll get to that in a minute and farage jumped at it thinking and
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this is kemi badenok did exactly the same thing they both were like yes we should absolutely go
00:22:12.360
and help america and around it's like well the world has changed actually and our relationship
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with america has also changed and this isn't something that's been thought through this has
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been done quite impulsively there isn't a plan as trump showed he was expecting some sort of
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organic uprising from the bottom it's like no you make that happen you don't get an organic
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uprising you have to funnel the weapons organize the militias you know this from your experience
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in the middle east already well for example syria where it took 13 years to get rid of assad and
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they thought they could get rid of iran's leadership in a weekend and moreover it's one
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of their jihadis who's currently in charge of syria now yes so it's like no you know what the
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process is and you just haven't made any groundwork you've done no preparation this is not going to
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work and of course at the moment iran and israel and whoever else just firing missiles at each
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other left right and center it's like right this not brilliant so what if farage jump on it even
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though this was clearly not going to be a great idea well i think it's because he's trying to be
00:23:06.120
buddy, buddy with Trump. But the thing is, there's a real question about Trump and Farage's
00:23:10.800
relationship. Because, for example, he went over to Mar-a-Lago recently and he was basically snubbed
00:23:17.220
by Trump. Trump was told that, oh, right, Nigel Farage has come to Mar-a-Lago and Trump's like,
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yeah, I'm not going to bother going. I'm staying in this area. It was only like an hour away as
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well. So it's not even that far for them to have had this meeting. But this is not the first time
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Trump has snubbed Nigel Farage. You might remember that Nigel Farage, if I can get rid of that,
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didn't get an invite to trump's inauguration either and this is kind of striking because i mean we both
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remember the was it 2016 campaign yeah where he was on the stage with them farage was was was a
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key element of that because the pitch that that trump was making is look these guys have just had
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brexit it shows that an outsider insurgent can come along and shake things up and take away the
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political orthodoxy he was up on stage with trump all the time he literally called him mr brexit
00:24:01.400
yes and and now i mean we we know what elon musk thinks of um of farage and you'll you'll remember
00:24:08.040
in uh 2024 when farage was like i'm not going to campaign for this uh election because i'm going
00:24:15.080
to go over and help trump in america but the thing is there were no tendrils no feelers put out back
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to him it's like we we're not asking you to come yep you know you're not going to be on stage with
00:24:23.580
trump again and this trump came over the um a little while ago to scotland uh last year in fact
00:24:30.680
and nigel farage didn't go meet him so really he's come to britain and he's not asking to meet with
00:24:36.280
you there is not a relationship here so why did you instantly jump in like donald trump has
00:24:42.860
deliberately called your relationship he has deliberately distanced himself and it honestly
00:24:47.120
looks because you just appear to be more of the same i mean at the inauguration boris johnson got
00:24:52.540
an invite but nigel farage didn't yes and so and i i know people who went to it and one of them told
00:24:59.660
me how they bumped into nigel farage having a smoke outside just on his own because he wasn't
00:25:03.880
invited to this thing it's like right that's that's that's weird anyway so yeah when trump
00:25:09.480
came here he didn't get an invite either anyway getting back to the iran thing uh it looks like
00:25:15.540
we're staying out of it right it looks it looks like we're just mostly staying out i mean america
00:25:19.540
should stay out of it as well but i i honestly don't understand and that's what my segment on
00:25:23.860
the podcast today i don't even understand what the war was for i don't understand how it's america
00:25:28.600
first it seems to be just regime change in iran but without the plan to change the regime well
00:25:34.120
yeah i mean i'm i was actually you know in favor of them black bagging maduro okay that was an
00:25:39.440
effective sensible operation step one it worked yeah it worked it was but it was targeted it had
00:25:44.380
a goal capture maduro put him in jail in america and by the time we knew about it it was done
00:25:48.240
exactly but that can't happen with iran so just bombing it until they submit i mean i don't want
00:25:55.020
get into it yeah but like it doesn't make sense uh starmer just um doesn't seem to be uh interested
00:26:01.380
in being a warthog the the labor government just doesn't seem to be interested in getting into it
00:26:05.680
saying well they've learned from iraq after both trump and blair have said come on you need to get
00:26:10.480
involved well and also the key reason why we voted for for trump in uh well not we but no
00:26:16.260
foreign wars yeah yeah no foreign wars yeah and no forever wars yeah and and it was it was exactly
00:26:22.260
what what starmer is saying here learning the lessons from iraq i mean that's why a lot of
00:26:25.860
maga went for trump it's because of no foreign wars and that's why a lot of maga are currently
00:26:30.800
very annoyed at trump i i understand the iran war only has like a 27 approval rating in america
00:26:36.940
oh it's it's insanely low and you know the fact that he's paler ground with lindsey graham and
00:26:40.860
lindsey graham has got the first direction since the invasion of afghanistan uh you know it shows
1.00
00:26:47.680
that the neocons have managed to get their hooks properly into the trump administration and into
00:26:51.180
trump himself it's such a shame yeah it's a total shame i'm not i'm not for it at all uh anyway who
00:26:56.580
was the first out of the gate to denounce well rupert low oh good i would i didn't check but i
00:27:02.400
thought you know instantly and the thing is at the time the conservatives and farage were you know
00:27:09.580
trump's like right on bombing iran and you could see them all coming okay brilliant can we bade
00:27:13.900
not farage i'd like to i'd like to support donald trump in his war in iran rupert low came out with
00:27:19.020
the right response no no war no strikes no troops you know sanctions pressures whatever is fine but
00:27:24.360
it's not our fight and we don't need to get involved well how does it i mean i i said earlier
00:27:29.240
how does it benefit america and i can't see a reason how it benefits america but it most certainly
00:27:33.440
doesn't benefit us no definitely benefits one country in the middle east though well that is
00:27:38.400
definitely been on their list for a long time yes i mean there's a certain prime minister in the
00:27:42.520
middle east who's been banging this drum for literally decades yeah probably longer but america
00:27:46.920
first is not supposed to mean israel first correct frankly yeah i mean the british public
00:27:52.340
rupert loads is showing his instincts completely aligned with the instincts of the british public
00:27:55.960
on this uh people are not actually in favor of it weirdly enough uh on the 2nd of march you had
00:28:02.100
uh about well 49 of people who were just opposed or strongly opposed uh with about 28 maybe
00:28:10.260
supporting and that's gone down to 25 supporting and more than half of people saying no i'm just
00:28:16.340
not for this. And reform voters themselves seem to be a bit out of step with the rest of the
00:28:22.720
country, frankly, on this one. But yeah, no, the majority position is we don't really want war
00:28:27.820
with Iran. What would it bring? What good would it be? And so Nigel Farage, like he has done on
00:28:33.780
almost every issue you can think, I mean, you recall in the last one of these we did, I pointed
00:28:38.960
out that Nigel Farage in 2024 said we're not taking Tory poison into our party. And now it is
00:28:44.780
the reconstituted Tory party well Nigel Farage has changed his position on that too uh he changed
00:28:51.580
his position on it on utilitarian grounds because we are not able to actually get involved in a
00:28:58.240
foreign war because actually we can't even defend Cyprus which he is correct about that I mean
1.00
00:29:02.840
there's nothing that we can do that America can't already I mean obviously so I mean yeah what's
00:29:08.920
the point but I mean there's just nothing we can do is basically the yes because we've only got
00:29:14.220
i think one aircraft carrier actually in the sea at the moment yes half of our fleet which is very
00:29:18.680
small anyway just a sea worthy the other 15 yeah we're not capable of fighting a long-range war
00:29:25.320
i mean it sounds it sounds like especially from the link you showed earlier that genric had better
00:29:30.060
instincts than farage on this yes and perhaps you know farage just went straight out there with
00:29:35.100
whatever he thought the talking point the mainstream media talking point was and and
00:29:39.020
genric has has managed to talk him around in the background well farage went with the zionist neocon
00:29:44.740
talking point right that was he he was like you know i know that lindsey graham is going to be in
00:29:49.260
favor of this that means theoretically the republican party will be in favor of it that
00:29:53.860
means the conservatives will be in favor of it and i exist in that space in politics therefore
00:29:58.380
i have to be in favor of it but like you say genric had a better instinct but now he's
00:30:02.260
contradicting the boss you know he's you know that's probably going to happen a lot and that's
00:30:06.720
going to lead to problems yes and i i think farage at this point feels vulnerable in that he can't
00:30:12.800
just kick out his best and brightest now so i think he just has to essentially tolerate the
00:30:19.040
fact that jenrich's publicly i mean if he i mean he i mean he's done this his whole career get rid
00:30:23.660
of people and i mean it really hurt him when he did that to rupert lowe because you know his
00:30:29.460
passport he he can't do it to generate now so he he's going to have to tolerate generate being of
00:30:34.700
a younger generation who doesn't just instantly go to whatever the sky news line is yeah i mean
00:30:39.760
jenrik uh has a profile of his own without you know you can say well ben habib rupert low you
00:30:45.680
know they were they were made by farage you could argue that case i'm not saying i agree with it but
00:30:50.080
you could at least argue that case but that's not the case of jenrik he is a former tory after all
00:30:55.100
who's defected after kemi bade not kicked him out because she found a paper that suggested he was
00:31:00.180
planning to defect and so they have made um a sort of strange bedfellows because apparently when when
00:31:06.460
he defected there was no uh talks between him and farage so this is all kind of cobbled together
00:31:10.640
and now they're kind of stuck with each other and so it's it looks vaguely uncomfortable when you
00:31:16.440
see them talking um but as uh will here points out look he's gonna change his position on everything
00:31:22.380
we never said we'd enshrine free speech we never said we conduct mass deportations we never said
00:31:27.520
we'd scrap net zero never said we'd cut foreign aid i never said we'd have accountability for
00:31:31.960
covid jabs or i never said we'd oppose digital id you can expect yeah all of this because farage
00:31:37.380
has always been a man of the moment rather than someone who is following a moral guiding star
00:31:42.420
so you know he never actually firmly commits to a position yeah well i mean as as i've already
00:31:48.180
talked about a couple of times on on this uh episode there's a number of things he said where
00:31:52.920
i was very quickly able to say you know it's not as simple as that because of this this that and
00:31:56.640
that and i mean it seems like every time he encounters one of these he comes out what he
00:32:02.000
thinks the right line is that his sort of silver-haired audience are going to respond to
00:32:06.240
and then somebody comes along and explains it to him and then he sort of backpedals and pretends
00:32:10.360
he never had that position in the first place i mean that's precisely what's happened here
00:32:14.000
well yes in fact if can we get have we got an age breakdown here i bet if there's an age breakdown
00:32:19.460
in here you'll find the boomers i did yes the whole thing almost certainly yeah i mean like
00:32:24.820
the fact that it's reform primarily we think this is a good idea suggests this is a boomer issue
00:32:30.340
as in the less likely you are to be conscripted funnily enough the more in favor you are of um
00:32:35.760
yeah but also it's the the sort of the boomer view you know the cold war view yes we have to
00:32:41.540
be taking out foreign governments who aren't already on side our churchill moment be noble
1.00
00:32:46.780
yeah send the young men off to die in a foreign desert i'm surprised there's not any breakdown
0.93
00:32:52.360
here i wasn't even look i didn't even think about that when i was uh preparing this i think you're
00:32:56.680
you're correct but anyway so he like you're exactly right his instinct is to go in a certain
00:33:03.480
direction but the thing is his instincts have actually been wrong recently and he's made a
00:33:07.720
series of blunders so um let's go on to the polling oh good because the polling is not not
00:33:15.720
superb now um i've been using the uk election data vault pollster ratings uh just to contextualize
00:33:22.920
the polling so as you can see here you've got the a minus grades so you've got you go of opinion
00:33:27.960
ipsos mori north stat observation variant uh then the b my b and b minus you've got delta
00:33:33.640
pole bmg savanta you've got focal data at c and then you've got a bunch of them on d jl partners
00:33:39.880
lord ashcroft at the bottom there yeah lord ashcroft at the very bottom of the deep
00:33:44.200
with a D minus. And so you've got the, and these are, as they tell us, based on the accuracy of
00:33:52.680
their polling. How much does the polling actually represent the final results when the elections
00:33:58.080
are actually held? And so this is something that a lot of people aren't very happy with,
00:34:03.660
because they've noticed that actually, if you look at, for example, there we go, opinion polling,
00:34:11.780
we seem to have passed peak reform yeah so as you can see uh the average opinion polling on
00:34:18.120
electoral calculus uh is um 28 and that's up until very recently so it was early 25 when it
00:34:30.500
really started to turn do you remember when he kicked out low because that was the moment that
00:34:36.160
we were like what yeah let me just because i mean he he i mean he had it all i mean he had
00:34:45.200
he had the he had the mainstream was coming over he had the the feeling in the country
00:34:49.740
i mean he had the online right and then he just did one assassination too many in such a clumsy
00:34:54.660
obvious way i don't even think it's to do that because it was march yeah no i do remember at
00:34:59.520
the time 25 the upswing carried on for a little while and then it started to turn yeah so that
00:35:05.100
that didn't actually affect things um but this so this is basically farage organically failing on
00:35:11.240
his own right so that's electoral calculus coming down to 28 and this is a poll of polls so it's the
00:35:16.040
average of the opinion polls uh the spectator has an average of their opinion polls you can't make
00:35:20.460
these any bigger unfortunately but uh i don't know whether you can see that they're on yeah i can see
00:35:24.840
the trend yeah they're on 28 as well but as you can see from the sort of high of 31 32 something
00:35:30.980
like that down to 28 i mean it's not the most catastrophic collapse but it's not the trend that
00:35:37.420
you're looking for no and looking at the other lines they don't seem to be benefiting from it
00:35:42.340
either no it's not really going anywhere uh the greens are actually on a bit of a downswing
00:35:47.860
recently in the average of the polls there and labor and conservative are both just yesterday's
00:35:53.700
dead dead in the water same with the liberal democrats frankly like the greens you would
00:35:58.320
think would be doing a lot better given how much they stand to actually gain and how much they
00:36:04.360
have actually gained i mean we've gotten them down to by-election and then you've got the
00:36:09.820
political polar polls which is a bit more brutal so for their averaging 25 which is rough i mean
00:36:20.220
this is just i mean when we started doing this they were high 20s and we we kind of assumed from
00:36:24.880
that they'd be pushing into 30 before long yeah i mean you know oh there we go they did brush into
00:36:30.400
the 30s yeah august um and that's the average of 31 so you had outlier polls yeah up 35 percent
00:36:37.480
you had a few that was a bit under but average of 31 there the high point yeah their average is now
00:36:42.720
their previous low their low mark yes exactly and none of the outliers are coming anywhere near
00:36:48.340
what they used to be so i think we can agree there has been an organic downturn and of course
00:36:54.840
this coincides slowly but surely with the more conservatives Nigel Farage accepts into the party
00:37:01.100
let's look at a few um actual polls just to get some honestly it's quite brutal numbers
00:37:05.720
because on five yeah well that hurts when you started on 30 exactly that was 32 down to 27
00:37:13.160
this is from BMG that's a B minus grade on this poll uh not good right that is that is really not
00:37:20.960
good uh the complete opposite direction you want to be going in if you're farage uh the next one
00:37:28.000
is jl partners which is a d plus so not great but uh other at plus eight there so that's a lot for
00:37:35.880
other isn't it yeah it's interesting there's a lot but um but what's interesting here of course
00:37:40.880
is again minus four for reform so significant dip in the polls labor down terribly as well
00:37:48.900
obviously and the greens on 14 so again reflecting i mean that's that's that's what 16 when you start
00:37:56.380
at 30 about that yeah yeah that's a huge swing but reflecting the poll of polls right it's very
00:38:03.440
similar to the rest of the numbers on the polling averages so i'm inclined to believe that there is
00:38:10.100
this kind of decay that is set into the poll numbers for um basically not just reform all of
00:38:16.960
them actually uh the next one here we have is servation where you can see they've got reform
00:38:22.340
on 29 but they're still down again other on nine percent that was one of the top ranked ones wasn't
00:38:27.420
it that was yeah servation are an a minus right uh and so maybe you know this this who knows i
00:38:36.000
think that 12 for the greens is probably the more realistic number actually some of the polls have
00:38:41.240
had the greens in like second or third place which i think is overstating it somewhat but um but
00:38:46.780
again other nine percent that's a that's a lot of other isn't it that's that could do breaking out
00:38:52.680
but like like you were saying the other day um we're witnessing the shattering of the political
00:38:58.960
environment and this can't go on forever and the fact that there's the you know there's not much
00:39:06.000
between any of them at this point so at least any of the main parties so it's like right okay that's
00:39:13.140
But the one that's really getting everyone's back up
00:39:41.660
that is just what is happening i mean to be fair looking at that list reform conservative greens
00:39:48.860
labor libdom none of them deserve to win no and they're all on about a fifth of the vote none
0.98
00:39:53.760
none of them are going to change anything none of them offer something new for britain it's it's all
00:39:59.060
just whatever we've been doing for the past few years or decades we're going to carry on doing it
00:40:03.540
we're just going to wrap we're just going to wrap it in a different set of rhetoric exactly but the
00:40:08.160
the fundamental premises are anyone is british as long as they have a british passport and
00:40:13.080
we are not going to reduce the size of the state we're not going to bring the
00:40:17.800
arm's length bodies the quangocracy under control we're not going to bring the bank
1.00
00:40:21.760
we're not going to change the system logical taxes exactly right we are literally here to
00:40:26.640
just tinker around the edges as the thing is already set and that's not paying off for any
00:40:31.860
of them really like you get to choose how you dispositionally feel about the rhetoric that
00:40:36.720
comes out of each one but you know that substantively they're all going to provide the
00:40:40.700
same thing uh and this when broken down into the seats is terrible actually so this is that polling
00:40:51.520
modeled out in an election and obviously it comes out to hung parliament uh which is i mean
00:41:24.380
Which they're basically already in because they keep taking their MPs
00:41:34.980
and presumably all of the Northern Ireland parties,
00:41:53.460
And of course, the Greens, Labour and Lib Dems,
00:41:56.600
they couldn't form a coalition even if they wanted to uh so there's a shattered country
00:42:02.760
this is just italian politics this is this is nothing gets done the civil servants run everything
00:42:08.400
yeah there's there's no there's no coherent agenda there's no way anything could be fixed
00:42:13.420
and now just to be clear this is the most pessimistic of the polls um there are there
00:42:21.180
are polls where reform gets something like 306 seats so yeah but still so a pact with the
00:42:26.640
conservatives would work they would actually be able to do that but um but what why do we bother
00:42:31.760
having elections if we're just going to end up with tory and labor every single time i mean just
00:42:35.660
just let them do it on a bloody rotor system and save our effort but also i mean go back six months
00:42:41.260
yeah this was all turquoise oh yes this was a sea of teal i remember you showed me the map and it
00:42:47.880
was just turquoise everywhere apart from the odd splodge of yellow and the cities which would still
00:42:52.620
be labor or green yes and so what farage has done here is actually broken the mingvars right yes he
00:42:58.820
has actually failed to maintain what was a commanding position more than 30 percent which
00:43:06.160
is all labor won on in the last election remember yes good point and and less than jeremy corbyn got
00:43:11.960
less than Jeremy Corbyn got to get their 418 seats or whatever it was. Farage was regularly
00:43:17.920
being predicted to get 400 seats. This was an easy government in waiting and he had the swagger
00:43:22.720
to go with it. Well, he made a series of really bad decisions. Well, you showed us a couple of
00:43:26.420
videos. There's no swagger in any of that. Exactly right. He sounds stressed. He sounds
00:43:31.440
like he's a man who realizes the opportunity is sliding through his fingers. And I'm sorry to say
00:43:37.920
but it's nigel farage's decisions that have caused this 100 you didn't need to take in
00:43:43.640
nadim zahawi nadine doris jemrick sweller all the other tories you didn't need to take in the
00:43:49.200
pro-refugee labor counselors or plague um well the ones in the senate senate welsh oh whatever
00:44:00.560
right you didn't need to take in a bunch of tories you didn't need to take tory donors
00:44:05.000
to be your men you to be your funders you didn't need to then come out and give uni party talking
00:44:11.060
points like well we're cutting we're cutting the taxes by not raising them as much as other people
00:44:16.860
are raising them which i don't even know if that's true by the way i didn't even bother checking so
00:44:20.320
who cares and you didn't have to come out in full throat support immediately of the iran war that
00:44:25.080
nobody wants and yet you did all of these things and you've shown people you're not really the
00:44:31.640
alternative that people thought well the thing is he's got the attention on him now because
00:44:35.900
everybody thought yeah he's going to win as our earlier discussions we all thought that he was
00:44:39.900
going to win with a with a landslide which means he gets the attention and when he gets the attention
00:44:45.340
you discover that he's actually not in any way different to what was offered before at all he
00:44:52.080
just sounds like a tory mp uh and so this this is this is pretty awful for reform genuinely awful
00:45:00.020
uh this this is not a government in waiting and so all of that hassle is like remember the other
00:45:05.720
week when he did his uh big event where he's got the the podiums he's like this is gonna be my
00:45:10.180
shadow chancellor it's gonna be my shadow home secretary and it's like okay well it very hillary
00:45:16.740
clinton congratulations to this next president yes right yes it's like okay but it doesn't look
00:45:22.960
like you're gonna get that now no and this isn't the only poll of course that is rather harsh i
00:45:28.460
I mean, there's a Lord Ashcroft poll here that has them on 22%, which is just oof.
00:45:34.780
I know Lord Ashcroft got beaten up, but he was the closest on a previous election.
00:45:46.180
So, I mean, you know, that ranking of pollsters is a bit, you know, what have you done to me lately?
00:45:52.100
But, you know, ultimately, any of those pollsters could be right, and none of them are good for him.
00:45:57.280
yes that's that's exactly right any any of them could be correct and none of them good for him
00:46:01.540
and so you what's weird about this is like guido forks are like oh yeah why isn't he getting to
00:46:10.520
where we expect him to be in the other polls like well and as i say of the last 10 published
00:46:16.300
westminster intention voting polls you guys average for reform has been 24.8 percent
00:46:21.040
well the average from opinion was 30 percent it was like okay but you gov are hardly um
00:46:29.580
a deeply anti-farage institution i mean their co-founder is in reform yes so the deems of
00:46:38.640
yeah now he doesn't work with you gov now he's actually left it and does other things but the
00:46:44.560
point being you'd think there'd be some sort of you know institutional sympathy for him because
00:46:50.480
mean he was the founder right i mean we're not did they turn i think there was three of them i met
00:46:54.560
them once when they were pitching but yeah there's two others i don't know what happened to them but
00:46:58.040
presumably they're still exactly right and so it you can't be like okay well you gov is producing
00:47:05.200
this statistical outlier out of bias against the party its founder is now in like that just doesn't
00:47:11.300
wash it doesn't in fact i seem to remember that was it all three of them it might have been all
00:47:16.640
three of them were um tory councillors for uh one of the one of the london boroughs which had a had
00:47:24.260
a tory council on it so yeah they're all of the same sort of ideological bent yeah they're they're
00:47:30.120
all um people with inside the westminster consensus yes and it's that's fine i mean obviously that's
00:47:35.960
what you'd expect but you can see this sort of uh cope here you go there's the odd one out well
00:47:41.420
no it's not the odd one out that's the thing there are actually a couple that do say this
00:47:45.260
and this is a problem that they're grappling with is well what if you gov are right because as we
00:47:52.620
saw at the beginning well they get an a minus result that's the best result that's on that
00:47:56.660
pollster rating they're not terrible like you know i don't know what to tell you i i i've thought they
00:48:03.260
were terrible in the past but the longer that i've done this the more i've realized well they're as
00:48:09.120
reliable as any other poll that's the point it's not saying a huge amount but as polls go
00:48:14.720
it's not saying a huge amount but i i think it might be capturing something as with the lord
00:48:19.900
ashcroft one i think it might be capturing a general lack of riz that well the polar pole
00:48:24.800
things that you showed when the trend is the trend and it's down yeah even yeah exactly on all of the
00:48:30.280
uh poles if i can get there yep but yeah all of the polar poles it's just downwards that's a line
00:48:37.340
going down that you could you could ski that yeah yeah yeah yeah you absolutely could and it's not
00:48:42.280
what you want if you're if you're purportedly the government in waiting that's announcing shadow
00:48:46.260
cabinets which i mean like everyone got a nigel ferrari's rear end about that but you're not the
0.90
00:48:51.920
opposition party you can't have a chat okay calm down they are leading the polls you know calm
00:48:56.620
down you know it's fine for them to sort of preemptively say it but it's only fine to preemptively
00:49:01.300
say it if it's actually working yes and i'm not sure that it is uh there was a another poll here
00:49:09.380
that um had restore organically placed at two percent and what was interesting about this
00:49:15.220
when you say organically what you mean is they were not they were not prompted they were not
00:49:19.220
offered with restore they they just made a point of saying no restore rupert lowe's restore britain
00:49:26.020
makes his first appearance in our polling registering two percent in his first outing
00:49:28.760
your party comes in at less than one percent both parties are initially prompted as part of another
00:49:32.680
party or independent candidate response option so you've got a click other than rupert lowe right
00:49:37.620
so yeah there's so the anyone who does anything with the internet will know that the more clicks
00:49:43.680
you have to make the more attrition you get i mean the the entire amazon business model is reducing
00:49:49.400
the number of clicks because it really matters it really matters yes uh so the fact that two percent
00:49:56.520
of them were like yeah no other things so that to to the point where restore restore had to break
00:50:01.640
through is very interesting because this is one that didn't directly prompt for them so we went
00:50:06.200
directly prompted there have been ones where they've been on seven percent six percent much
00:50:09.360
higher yeah much higher but when even when not prompted people like no i'm having that so that's
00:50:14.400
that's interesting not only are they not prompted they're not covered on the mainstream media which
00:50:18.340
is still what most people watch absolutely and nigel france was like well you only you'll be on
0.63
00:50:22.540
one percent it's like well well they've already doubled that yeah exactly they've already beaten
00:50:26.720
that uh and just to just finish off uh what what are the important issues that people are concerned
00:50:31.940
about is it is it iran war at the top no oh right no it's not uh it's immigration the thing that
00:50:38.020
apparently we can't do anything about yeah according to nigel farage himself who says
00:50:41.740
it's impossible according to his latest defection says no actually it's okay to have immigration as
00:50:47.260
long as you get the curry yes um that the one thing that the people british people care about
00:50:52.800
more than anything is the one thing that all of those prompted parties will not give you correct
00:50:58.740
and also the one thing that again he flip-flops on and so you've got and i mean i forgot to bring
00:51:05.800
up for this that the guardian uh published an article about a poll that's been done of reform
00:51:10.380
members and 54 of reform members said that they think that non-white people should essentially
00:51:17.340
be encouraged to leave the country bloody hell that's a lot harsher than even we go yeah exactly
00:51:22.160
i've never said that i'm not i wouldn't advocate for that that's that's a bit bloody far but the
00:51:27.180
point is nigel frage i think is misunderstanding his own base well i i would go further and say
00:51:33.500
that his own base is misunderstanding him well yes there's the there is that the reason why
00:51:38.940
you're still getting whatever it is 22 24 is because that 22 or 24 of people think that he
00:51:46.600
is going to do deportations and a hell of a lot harsher line than even we go on stuff like that
00:51:52.000
yeah and and and when they start and and basically what he needs to do is to not let his own base
00:51:58.940
discover what his policies are because if if if they figure out what he's really about
00:52:05.940
that 22 will go down to like six or seven percent i i completely agree that that is that is Nigel
00:52:12.620
Farage's current key strategy make sure nobody finds out about what i think yes yeah literally
00:52:19.440
whereas Rupert's low strategy is the opposite make sure people find out what I'm about correct
00:52:25.740
so the the I mean defense was 35 percent because it's been in the news right the Iran war but um
00:52:33.660
well I know that it says defense not blowing up schools in the Middle East but yeah sure but like
00:52:38.560
you know the defense of the country is an important issue yes there are these things going on but as
00:52:42.920
you can see like immigration the economy have been pretty collectively tied as being the most
00:52:47.540
important issues and they are deeply tied together of course i mean there's something you can take
00:52:51.820
from that if if you're trying to win power in this country and you had an honest media
00:52:55.940
you would just talk about immigration or deportations and the economy and taxes just
00:53:01.020
all day long that's that's what you would talk about well you tie it together we can deport
0.68
00:53:04.420
people and your wages are going to go up yes that's that's the selling pitch uh but anyway
00:53:09.460
so the point being here um frankly like nigel farage is not the man that his own party think
00:53:16.680
he is he is not going to get any of the things that anyone actually wants done because he's
00:53:22.300
already committed to the uniparty premises of government yep he's not going to fundamentally
00:53:27.660
change the structures of any of these things and i don't even think he's going to win no and and
00:53:33.840
i think that he knows everything you've just said yes and that's why in every video that you've just
00:53:38.800
shown us he's stressed out he's stressed he's rattled he's uncomfortable that is not the the
00:53:44.260
it's not the swagger of a year ago is it you know because that was the thing and that's the that's
00:53:47.900
the thing that really struck stuck in my mind watching that uh the petrol station gimmick it
00:53:53.340
was like wow he he doesn't look confident no and he did look confident there and rightly so yes
00:53:59.980
rightly so like a year ago he looked like he was about to smash the entire thing and it looks like
00:54:05.420
the swamp has basically taken him in yes and made him he's now the horse and never-ending story i
0.99
00:54:11.700
I mean, is he being dragged into the swamp and he's, oh, bugger.
0.83
00:54:15.140
Or it's like the Borg or something from Star Trek.
0.95
00:54:24.440
And I think the gradual, slow, but what appears to be essentially an inexorable decline is locked in now.
00:54:34.140
Because if people, as I personally view, I mean, I don't know what the average person is turning away from reform for, right?
00:55:11.480
on top of it and all the flavor comes from that other stuff i think the reason why reform have
00:55:16.500
worked is because they've allowed their supporters to project onto them what they wanted oh it's
00:55:23.760
different from the uniparty this is what i want that must be what they're about and he's got
00:55:28.860
nowhere to go because he can't always been his rhetoric his rhetoric is always the one of the
00:55:33.160
outsider yes but but he's got absolutely nowhere to go now because he he can't abandon what he
00:55:38.500
what he's actually for because he's boxed in with the people who actually watch this stuff
00:55:43.280
and pay attention and that's where his support's coming from that's where his institutional backing
00:55:47.320
is coming from um but at the same time he he's got to stop people from actually seeing what he's
00:55:53.380
about but you're not going to do that with all of the attention for the period of the next two and
00:55:58.520
a half years but i don't even know if he can do that because he i i like i said that's why he's
00:56:05.720
boxed in yes completely but i think he's also like what he's done is made a series of choices
00:56:13.260
that made the decline inevitable right because he if if he was saying look i'm not labor of the
00:56:18.520
conservatives and we're actually gonna be a patriotic party that's gonna fix this country
00:56:21.260
well now everyone just sees tories yes backers tory donors tory mps tory councillors whatever
00:56:28.360
and the media is treating him like the tories when he comes out with tory rhetoric is well
00:56:33.360
we didn't raise it as much as the Labour Party would have done so you know vote for us I think
00:56:37.400
that what he's done is made essentially a prison for himself yeah he can't go anywhere else now
00:56:41.700
and it's just going to be a slow decline and so the question is when does Nigel Farage pack it in
00:56:47.420
because yes if you know it's it's averaging 25 now what happens when it's averaging 21
00:56:53.760
well I mean the reason why he was out of this for so long the reason why Richard Tice was running
00:56:58.880
it for so long because it wasn't polling anywhere yep and he thought well i'm just going to go and
00:57:03.680
make lots of money being on gb news yep and doing my i'll go to america to help donald trump not
00:57:09.240
that he wanted it um he's always been very fair weather on this stuff he only as you've said he
00:57:14.500
only came back because he was convinced he was going to win and how long is he going to stick
00:57:19.320
around doing this day in day out this stressful job as opposed to making lots of money it's not
00:57:25.980
going to be for that long well that's that's the question and so i think that the the gradual
00:57:29.800
decline will continue from everything that we can see at the moment there's no reason to think
00:57:34.380
the gradual decline won't continue and i think that when he gets i mean imagine if it goes below
00:57:40.300
20 i think he'll just bounce i think he'll just like yep the slightly more funny thing would be
00:57:45.520
what if he bounces and then robert jenrich takes over and then it improves yeah and then yeah
00:57:49.620
exactly will he do the same thing as he did to that guy in clacton will he come back five minutes
00:57:54.460
before the election and boot generic out and say right i'm in again now that's a great question
00:57:58.480
and i guess it'll stand to be stand to be resolved but uh yeah so anyway um