The Podcast of the Lotus Eaters - March 13, 2026


The Rizz Is Gone


Episode Stats

Length

58 minutes

Words per Minute

196.63779

Word Count

11,424

Sentence Count

129

Misogynist Sentences

5

Hate Speech Sentences

16


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 hi folks welcome back to another political chat with dan and myself uh we're going to be talking
00:00:04.580 about how the the i nearly said the conservative party the reform party same difference well that's
00:00:11.380 the we'll talk about that uh is is losing its charisma right as the kids are saying it's lost
00:00:16.260 its riz uh and it's beginning to show and i don't think they're going to make it to the finishing
00:00:22.600 line as we were saying previously they're trying to carry the ming vase yeah of course the ice
00:00:27.320 rink yeah and i don't i don't think they're going to do it um i mean the the reform party has had
00:00:33.120 so many conservative defectors as you can see it now has its own wikipedia page and it's it's quite
00:00:40.380 extensive actually i mean this is kind of bizarre because their whole pitch is that the tories are
00:00:46.740 rotten and of letting you down that was yeah i don't know if i don't think that the lotus eaters
00:00:51.700 has a mission statement but if we did it probably would be something like the mainstream media have
00:00:56.400 let you down and they're rotten if there was a wikipedia page which was just full of people
00:01:00.960 used to work at mainstream media and now work at lotus eaters you would kind of think well it kind
00:01:05.820 of undermines the mission statement yeah it would be very bizarre if we hired uh like lewis goodall
00:01:12.200 and beth rigby and yes various people from various different mainstream media are trying to make the
00:01:17.960 case that we're fundamentally better than them and also that we're we're renegades outside of the
00:01:23.000 system yes that doesn't doesn't wash no and this is the same thing and then of course uh they decided
00:01:29.740 to take in some labor defectors oh that actually happened while i was away it did do you want to
00:01:35.480 do you want to hear his opinion on refugees basically anybody who is lawfully here who's
00:01:41.220 a british citizen is a british citizen a british citizen is not determined britain citizenship
00:01:47.200 is not determined by the colour of the skin
00:01:49.880 or the name they use to worship God.
00:01:52.520 Anybody who is here legally is a British citizen
00:01:55.400 and entitled to the full support of the British state.
00:01:58.580 Now, I actually am fairly sympathetic towards refugees,
00:02:03.640 towards refugees,
00:02:05.100 not to people who are seeking a better life
00:02:08.680 at the expense of people in Britain.
00:02:11.140 That's a separate matter.
00:02:12.540 but no I mean I would like people to be part of one country one community I I delight in the
00:02:21.700 different colors in here the different colors of people the different cuisines the different
00:02:25.640 clothing I mean that is all good for me I mean I think that so he's making the Piers Morgan Curry
00:02:32.080 argument he is making exactly the Piers Morgan Curry I mean this guy sounds like he's going to
00:02:37.260 fit right in yes he does what's his name is this guy this chap was uh clive furnace clive so so
00:02:44.400 according to clive's logic if i were to move to china and china were to grant me a piece of paper
00:02:50.340 that said you're chinese now he would consider me to be a chinaman correct even though i have a
00:02:55.100 thousand plus years of british ancestry correct and the chinese would be presumably thrilled that
00:03:01.460 you'd set up a fish and chip shop yes this is just diversity this is enriching the culture
00:03:06.800 this is them you being just as chinese as them and them being just as british as you
00:03:11.460 because again notice what you're saying there well if you get this piece of paper then you're
00:03:15.760 entitled to everything it's like okay that's that's great clive you're currently defecting
00:03:19.720 from the party that gives 260 000 of these pieces of paper out a year and that's just the ones they
00:03:25.500 actually give full citizenship that's not just a visa that's that's to get access to everything and
00:03:30.240 it's more than quarter of a million a year.
00:03:32.180 It's a pound the size of Swindon every year.
00:03:33.980 All those people coming over on boats,
00:03:35.480 the most extreme example of this.
00:03:36.820 I know the big problem is people coming over on planes legally,
00:03:39.720 but even the people who come over on boats,
00:03:41.660 they're being given permanent residency,
00:03:44.280 they're given being a house,
00:03:45.200 and they will get British citizenship in time as well.
00:03:47.600 Yep, the Boris wave with their indefinite leave to remain,
00:03:49.860 that's ticking over now.
00:03:51.400 Shibana Mahmood is moving to make that 10 years.
00:03:53.800 It's like, well, if you don't want them here,
00:03:56.320 which is why you're extending it,
00:03:58.180 why not just send them home?
00:03:59.280 why let them stay here and then in 10 years time it's like oh we're gonna have to extend that by
00:04:03.600 another five years are we just going to extend this until they've all died of old age well it
00:04:07.300 sounds like clive's position is that labor had become too right wing for him so he needed to
00:04:11.280 move to reform honestly a lot of people who support the green party make that precise argument
00:04:17.680 i bet they do right wing anyway so they seem to be actually constructing a physical uni party
00:04:24.440 in the reform party which is a strange thing to do a bunch of uh well frankly failed careerists
00:04:31.400 who are going to lose their seats and uh failed careerists who are going to lose their seats
00:04:36.260 have come together to join Nigel Farage and so it's very interesting that again you don't seem
00:04:42.440 like much of an outsider party if you're the one raising the most money in the British electoral
00:04:48.160 system now you can see here that reform have raised more than the Labour and Conservative
00:04:52.920 party combined or just yeah just just more actually i think i'm terrible at maths but
00:04:58.640 the point is about the same so they're at the top of the lead uh the the leaderboard and so right
00:05:04.400 they're out raising everyone by a significant margin i'm three million more than the conservatives
00:05:11.060 well i can understand why the donors do this because they want they want to go to the people
00:05:14.560 with the power of patronage and it looks like it's going to be reform it does doesn't it uh they uh
00:05:19.400 not only uh the best funded political party which doesn't scream outsider to be honest uh guess who
00:05:26.900 guess who the donors are would it by any chance be exactly the same donors as it always has been
00:05:32.600 it's all formatories so right you you can't see very well because of the way this is but
00:05:37.740 christopher harbourn um bitcoin billionaire in thailand has uh given a ridiculous amount of
00:05:44.840 money 22 million apparently they've got jeremy hosking a former conservative donor uh then you
00:05:51.520 have nicholas he was backing lawrence fox he has given lawrence fox money as well yes right uh to
00:05:57.240 be a kind of wild card yeah in political discourse and then you've got nicholas candy who's uh given
00:06:04.140 him nearly a million uh which again former conservative donors and so it's just very
00:06:09.660 interesting how and then you've got the leave means leave campaign which is also given a huge
00:06:14.640 amount of money so and again they were the sort of tory brexit campaign so the conservative donors
00:06:20.520 are basically moving across to reform so okay well as well as the mps that's not
00:06:26.480 rogue outsiders who didn't previously take an interest and who are now finally the insurrection
00:06:33.160 is here uh no it's just billionaire tory donors who are now backing nigel because the tories are
00:06:39.520 busted flush this looks like terminator 2 where the t1000 has been you know blasted and is now
00:06:46.460 just reforming in a slightly different shape it's exactly that and it's not just the tories either
00:06:51.520 it's labor too having a few labor defectors come over yeah well you'll get that i'm pretty sure
00:06:58.400 there was a liberal democrat council who defected as well but i couldn't find the information on it
00:07:02.820 So I'll skip that for now.
00:07:04.900 And so it seems like it's business as usual, right?
00:07:08.660 It really just seems like business as usual.
00:07:11.160 For example, Quasi Quarteng announced that he's got a Bitcoin company
00:07:16.000 and that Nigel Farage has taken a stake in it.
00:07:19.500 It's like, right, oh, okay.
00:07:21.500 And is Quasi Quarteng going to defect a reform?
00:07:24.640 Is this what I guess we'd call some sort of insider trading
00:07:27.840 where it's like, oh, right, so you think Nigel's going to be the next prime minister.
00:07:32.820 You've got a bunch of Conservative buddies who have defected over already.
00:07:35.800 He then takes a big stake in your company.
00:07:38.320 Are there going to be government contracts involved?
00:07:40.660 Is this a closed loop?
00:07:43.000 In particular with Quasi Quartan, because he's so associated with Liz Trust,
00:07:46.880 who was actually one of the best prime ministers that the Tory had.
00:07:49.280 Not that the Tories had any particularly good prime ministers,
00:07:52.320 but she was still the best of a bad bunch.
00:07:54.840 Because of the association with her, I suspect that Quasi himself won't come over.
00:07:59.340 But that's not to say that he won't get some other thing.
00:08:02.360 i don't know chairman of the bloody tate or bbc or made a lord or something and at the very minimum
00:08:08.760 if reform does do some sort of official government business with bitcoin or cryptocurrency yes who's
00:08:14.960 getting the contract yes right so yes it's business as usual and speaking of business as usual
00:08:21.620 farage decided he was gonna do a lovely stunt in a petrol station in derbyshire where he
00:08:29.940 had the petrol station pimped out in reform colors and said look here are the prices now
00:08:35.900 but when we take over they're going to be one pound 26 rather than one pound 47 or something
00:08:40.540 like that so we're going to we're going to reduce the price of petrol so right this is a stunt
00:08:44.080 this is just a stunt i don't even know how he gets to that because petrol forecourts are price
00:08:49.900 takers not price setters sure uh but he well his argument is he's going to abolish green levies
00:08:56.600 on fuel so right i mean and don't get me wrong great but everyone should be pledging to abolish
00:09:03.900 levies again you can't because these have all been written into contracts so they'd have to
00:09:09.620 tear up existing contracts in order to do this stuff so well these are complex questions that
00:09:15.540 i'm sure that's the sort of answer that in fact robert jenrich would have given say look you you
00:09:20.280 were part of the tory government you're in power 14 years why didn't you abolish the green levies
00:09:23.580 and he'd be like well yes the same music we had the boris wave is because it suited us at the time
00:09:28.880 yeah we couldn't really it was a bit there as you said there are a lot of contracts there's a lot of
00:09:34.140 um intertwining chords that connect all of these things together we can't just cut them all because
00:09:39.720 it'll be chaos so um you know you can say what you like but what was interesting about this
00:09:44.860 is that at this point he has a bit of a meltdown because he's being gently probed by beth rigby
00:09:52.040 on a subject uh she's not in any way impolite or impertinent either but look at nigel's response
00:09:57.900 thank you for answering that so uh comprehensively you're pledging to cut fuel duty uh and pressing
00:10:04.840 the government to do so but you also pledged or some of your candidates did to cut council tax
00:10:10.920 when they were trying to win elections at local level and that's gone up so how can anyone trust
00:10:16.060 anything you say. Wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong. Never once
00:10:19.940 last year in the county campaign, including here in Derbyshire, did
00:10:23.860 I ever say that we can't count. But some of your candidates did
00:10:27.840 and they haven't. No, no. They've put it up.
00:10:31.800 No, no, no. I'll check what the people in Kent
00:10:35.780 said because they've put it up. You can listen if you want to or we can jack it in
00:10:39.960 now. It's entirely up to you. I'm listening. We sent out literature with
00:10:43.840 national messaging which said end net zero appropriately stop the boats and cut taxes
00:10:50.900 that was national messaging on individual county messaging we said nothing of the kind
00:10:56.380 only one party last year campaigned in the locals saying they would cut council tax and they're
00:11:03.060 called the conservative party so we'll stop there but you can see very stressed out well and also
00:11:09.560 So it's not obvious to me why cutting taxes is a bad thing.
00:11:13.720 Well, it's because it wasn't possible, right?
00:11:16.460 Remember in Zia Yusuf...
00:11:17.360 Oh, a bit like mass deportations.
00:11:19.420 No, no, no. Mass deportations is completely possible.
00:11:23.340 Actually, cutting council taxes is actually impossible,
00:11:26.640 as they discovered when they set up their Doge UK unit,
00:11:30.600 since Zia Yusuf, I think it was down to Kent County Council,
00:11:33.360 and found that they couldn't actually do anything
00:11:35.300 because the spending is mandated by the central government.
00:11:38.120 so you have to have this you have to have that you have to have x amount for redistributive
00:11:43.500 funding and yes all mandated by the central government and then they're like right okay
00:11:49.340 so what does that mean well that means we've got to raise council taxes by five percent
00:11:52.680 so it's it's true that about 80 90 percent of council spending is statute spending meaning
00:11:59.220 they have no choice on it but the point is if you become a government you can change the statutes
00:12:03.760 yes and actually if you look at council budgets the majority of it is it's moving money around
00:12:10.280 from people who work to people who don't it's adult social care it's stuff like that you you
00:12:14.880 can change that you can but the the issue is he can't do it until he is in government right and
00:12:21.600 farage and reform apparently didn't realize this because they did say we're going to cut council
00:12:27.580 waste we're going to cut council spending and notice how he's being very specific well in this
00:12:32.600 place i didn't say it's like okay that's great yes but the implied message that people took away
00:12:38.260 the sort of banner headline is nigel farage is going to reduce council taxes and that's why
00:12:42.520 beth rigby has come to me said but you said you were going to reduce council taxes and he's like
00:12:46.600 yeah uh well actually how about if i reduce i cut taxes by not putting them up as much
00:12:54.180 this is an amazing on the politics last year's local elections promise to reduce
00:13:00.300 waste waste and cut your taxes most of the councils that you took control of are putting council tax
00:13:06.140 up including kent 3.99 so across the country we're putting up council tax less than the other
00:13:11.580 parties where they control councils our average increase is less than the rate of inflation
00:13:16.060 we've made over 300 million pounds of savings across the councils and by the way i never said
00:13:21.140 we cut i never said we your looflet said cut your taxes well which means don't charge the maximum
00:13:28.100 of 4.99%. Those people would think
00:13:30.320 that would be cutting your taxes. Never once
00:13:32.800 in the country ever
00:13:34.000 did I say we would cut council tax.
00:13:36.340 I mean it's literally on the
00:13:38.440 leaflet mate.
00:13:40.040 This is the problem he's getting into. He's trying to run
00:13:42.480 an insurgency message within
00:13:44.540 the uniparty system. Correct.
00:13:46.340 And he's discovering that it is incompatible.
00:13:48.920 And I love this.
00:13:50.320 They've now got the definition of cutting
00:13:52.280 which is the same as the Conservatives
00:13:54.340 old definition of cutting which is not putting up as much
00:13:56.560 used to i remember years ago i was in i was in the house of commons having dinner with a conservative
00:14:00.840 mp and he he was running a department he was telling me about all the cuts he's having to make
00:14:06.100 and i'm saying to him you do realize that your spending is still going up and he's like no it's
00:14:10.640 not and i said i i said it is your spending the whole government spending including your department
00:14:15.360 spending is going up and we argued about this for 20 minutes in the end we we got up and we went to
00:14:19.400 the house commons library and we dug out the um the treasury book and i showed him there and he
00:14:25.040 was like and he couldn't believe it and i said what what you've mistaken is is that they were
00:14:29.080 scheduled to go up whatever it was like four and a half percent and they're only going up 3.9
00:14:33.360 percent and and that's what you that's why you're having to make cuts because the cost of everything
00:14:38.480 is going up um but you think you're having to make these a few cuts what you're doing is rearranging
00:14:43.420 where the increase goes due to inflation and and he and he looked at me like he just i'd blown his
00:14:48.480 mind entirely but this is the point doesn't nigel just sound like one of the old guard here yeah he
00:14:53.920 he is exactly what the tories were correct and his party is full of tories yes and it's backed
00:15:01.260 by tories and now he sounds like a tory and so you can't help but feel that uh no amount of
00:15:07.960 stunts in front of uh blinged out petrol station is going to change any of this uh but the thing
00:15:14.880 is it didn't uh stop um i mean well people obviously recognize it as a stunt didn't stop
00:15:19.900 beth rigby for essentially campaigning for farage i mean as you can see yeah she's just uh well
00:15:25.300 reform are going to subsidize prices at a petrol station in buxton to promote their proposals cut
00:15:30.620 fuel duty i mean can they even do that i mean i suppose they're even allowed to do that is that
00:15:36.680 not that electioneering in some way paying they actually sell the petrol i mean we're not in an
00:15:41.040 election period but i mean in an election period you can't even buy one of your uh you can't buy
00:15:45.980 perspective constituents a pint or something yeah so you but maybe you're allowed to bribe them when
00:15:52.080 it's not an election i've never checked i guess as far as i'm aware there's no legal action against
00:15:57.120 farage on this yeah so who knows but um but beth reed be there just promoting what he's doing
00:16:03.480 rather than being critical of it so and she was the one asking the question she wasn't being
00:16:07.280 excessively uh aggressive or probing it was just well you did say this is that correct and farage
00:16:13.800 had a little meltdown over it it's like right okay so there's a lot of stress there in what is now
00:16:20.320 just the official uni party and then you have this that came out reform uk says is very interested
00:16:26.100 in taking mi5 up on its offer to help political parties vet candidates amid fears of hostile
00:16:31.900 states meddling british politics right okay so the problem here is that the moment mi5 say
00:16:40.100 we have a concern about this person this person this person reform instantly have to get rid of
00:16:44.980 them it's hope not hit on steroids yes because otherwise what happens if there's a year later
00:16:50.000 and something comes up about one of those candidates reform wales leader who was
00:16:54.080 taking money from the russians yeah well not even that i mean i mean if if a headline comes up a
00:16:59.820 year later mi5 advised of dropping this candidate and they didn't they can't take that risk so what
00:17:06.420 they've effectively done is handed the deep state complete carte blanche to edit the reform candidate
00:17:14.940 list and the only people you're going to get through are the people who have the most blandest
00:17:19.720 possible opinions and i remember having this conversation because myself and beau were reform
00:17:23.160 candidates um for a while before we got thrown out for being one inch to the right of nigel
00:17:27.940 at the time and we met other reform candidates and you know not wanting to be rude about them
00:17:33.640 but most of them are basically empty suits.
00:17:35.900 They're people who have...
00:17:37.040 They're not politicians.
00:17:37.860 Yeah.
00:17:38.220 Well, no, they're not even that.
00:17:39.640 They're just normies who just get all of their opinions
00:17:42.920 from the nightly news.
00:17:44.480 There was not a single thought that they had
00:17:46.700 which was any different to what they had just watched on the TV.
00:17:49.380 I'm sure they're all lovely people, hardworking.
00:17:51.940 Yeah, I'm sure they're fine, but they're normies.
00:17:54.480 And they hadn't thought about anything.
00:17:56.320 A conversation with them is a conversation with the TV.
00:17:59.800 And I think what reform wants is basically bland people
00:18:03.300 for whatever it is um you know let's say they get they get 200 seats they want they want 180 of them
00:18:10.040 to be completely bland and then 20 people at the top who decide everything yeah i mean i didn't
00:18:14.800 include the clip but i was watching um the isle of white rally that they did recently uh lots of
00:18:21.380 great beards right you can just tell it just a sea of white head uh heads and at one point nigel
00:18:28.560 farage again sounding quite honestly i don't want to say desperate but i haven't got a better word
00:18:34.120 for it he said look there's a sign up sheet at the back go and sign up so you can be you can stand as
00:18:40.240 a candidate for us and you think that with 270 000 members which is what they allegedly have
00:18:45.260 they'll have no shortage of candidates all over the place you think they'll be everywhere it's
00:18:50.380 like right come and sign up so you can be vetted by mi5 to join the insurgent party hope not hate
00:18:55.540 It'll go through your social media.
00:18:57.580 This is not an insurgent party.
00:19:00.060 And let's say you're somebody of real calibre,
00:19:03.100 somebody who's running something important.
00:19:05.080 Are you going to quit that so that you can run for reform
00:19:08.340 and be lobby fodder, get scrutinised by MI5,
00:19:12.520 and if they discover something, they'll open a file on you,
00:19:14.980 and then who knows what problems you have
00:19:16.620 trying to even get through an airport from that point on?
00:19:19.500 Good point.
00:19:20.360 So anyway, I think that we can safely say
00:19:23.220 this is not an outsider party.
00:19:25.160 No.
00:19:25.540 in any in any way shape or form this is more of the same and we see this constantly so the the
00:19:33.520 next thing i want to talk about is faraj on iran because what's interesting about this is how bad
00:19:39.860 his political instincts were so the the fact the second donald trump sent his fleet over to iran
00:19:47.280 and started bombing them uh starmer's response was well we weren't involved and we don't really
00:19:53.580 want to get involved which actually okay that's that's all right i know right yeah like of of all
00:19:59.560 of the decisions starmer has made this is probably the best is he stuck to it because i've been away
00:20:04.940 for this whole thing he has stuck to it okay uh we we haven't got directly involved they've tried
00:20:09.600 they've sent one ship called the dragon but i don't think it's arrived yet because it was probably
00:20:14.200 doesn't work anyway well that that's the problem half of it we've only got about 30 ships half of
00:20:18.080 them are out of action and we finally got this one off the other day so it's probably not even there
00:20:22.660 yet and it's not going to do a lot and we've been refusing them access to our bases and things like
00:20:26.960 this so it's been okay well that's yeah it's been quite controversial frankly yeah but farage came
00:20:31.980 out as an iran war hawk this is pathetic why aren't we doing something about this why aren't
00:20:36.380 we bombing schools in iran yeah i mean literally they bombed a girls school the other day so not
00:20:41.600 going to age well i don't really want to be involved i've got no particular desire to be in
00:20:46.180 a war with iran why are we two minutes into this we've already found two examples of how labor are
00:20:51.200 the right of reform yeah that's that's a great question i wasn't even trying to make that point
00:20:57.040 um but notice how farage is fully on the neocon plantation here it's just like no this my entire
00:21:04.880 party is business as usual and when it comes to whatever america and israel are doing in the
00:21:09.920 middle east it's business as usual this is the same yeah it's the same uh philosophy and in some
00:21:17.040 cases the same people who are advocating for iraq or advocating for afghanistan i mean pete
00:21:22.000 hegseth claims to have been a neocon up until 2022 when he had a damascene conversion he was
00:21:28.240 like yeah no i was wrong about all that and now oh actually but not not with iran it's like
00:21:33.360 okay but this is just more of the same uh and what's interesting is the lack of harmony within
00:21:38.880 reform uh because jenry came out and said uh yeah i don't think we should be involved in this
00:21:43.360 actually and he posted a big wall of text on twitter uh saying much the same as he says in
00:21:48.320 this interview and so the question is well why why does farage want to jump in and i think farage
00:21:55.500 basically wants to be buddies with donald trump trump has done this it's unpopular in america
00:22:01.300 uh it's unpopular over here but we'll get to that in a minute and farage jumped at it thinking and
00:22:07.680 this is kemi badenok did exactly the same thing they both were like yes we should absolutely go
00:22:12.360 and help america and around it's like well the world has changed actually and our relationship
00:22:16.380 with america has also changed and this isn't something that's been thought through this has
00:22:21.380 been done quite impulsively there isn't a plan as trump showed he was expecting some sort of
00:22:26.340 organic uprising from the bottom it's like no you make that happen you don't get an organic
00:22:30.540 uprising you have to funnel the weapons organize the militias you know this from your experience
00:22:35.120 in the middle east already well for example syria where it took 13 years to get rid of assad and
00:22:40.820 they thought they could get rid of iran's leadership in a weekend and moreover it's one
00:22:44.720 of their jihadis who's currently in charge of syria now yes so it's like no you know what the
00:22:49.420 process is and you just haven't made any groundwork you've done no preparation this is not going to
00:22:53.780 work and of course at the moment iran and israel and whoever else just firing missiles at each
00:22:57.600 other left right and center it's like right this not brilliant so what if farage jump on it even
00:23:02.260 though this was clearly not going to be a great idea well i think it's because he's trying to be
00:23:06.120 buddy, buddy with Trump. But the thing is, there's a real question about Trump and Farage's
00:23:10.800 relationship. Because, for example, he went over to Mar-a-Lago recently and he was basically snubbed
00:23:17.220 by Trump. Trump was told that, oh, right, Nigel Farage has come to Mar-a-Lago and Trump's like,
00:23:21.800 yeah, I'm not going to bother going. I'm staying in this area. It was only like an hour away as
00:23:25.340 well. So it's not even that far for them to have had this meeting. But this is not the first time
00:23:30.180 Trump has snubbed Nigel Farage. You might remember that Nigel Farage, if I can get rid of that,
00:23:35.480 didn't get an invite to trump's inauguration either and this is kind of striking because i mean we both
00:23:41.460 remember the was it 2016 campaign yeah where he was on the stage with them farage was was was a
00:23:46.820 key element of that because the pitch that that trump was making is look these guys have just had
00:23:51.480 brexit it shows that an outsider insurgent can come along and shake things up and take away the
00:23:56.580 political orthodoxy he was up on stage with trump all the time he literally called him mr brexit
00:24:01.400 yes and and now i mean we we know what elon musk thinks of um of farage and you'll you'll remember
00:24:08.040 in uh 2024 when farage was like i'm not going to campaign for this uh election because i'm going
00:24:15.080 to go over and help trump in america but the thing is there were no tendrils no feelers put out back
00:24:19.560 to him it's like we we're not asking you to come yep you know you're not going to be on stage with
00:24:23.580 trump again and this trump came over the um a little while ago to scotland uh last year in fact
00:24:30.680 and nigel farage didn't go meet him so really he's come to britain and he's not asking to meet with
00:24:36.280 you there is not a relationship here so why did you instantly jump in like donald trump has
00:24:42.860 deliberately called your relationship he has deliberately distanced himself and it honestly
00:24:47.120 looks because you just appear to be more of the same i mean at the inauguration boris johnson got
00:24:52.540 an invite but nigel farage didn't yes and so and i i know people who went to it and one of them told
00:24:59.660 me how they bumped into nigel farage having a smoke outside just on his own because he wasn't
00:25:03.880 invited to this thing it's like right that's that's that's weird anyway so yeah when trump
00:25:09.480 came here he didn't get an invite either anyway getting back to the iran thing uh it looks like
00:25:15.540 we're staying out of it right it looks it looks like we're just mostly staying out i mean america
00:25:19.540 should stay out of it as well but i i honestly don't understand and that's what my segment on
00:25:23.860 the podcast today i don't even understand what the war was for i don't understand how it's america
00:25:28.600 first it seems to be just regime change in iran but without the plan to change the regime well
00:25:34.120 yeah i mean i'm i was actually you know in favor of them black bagging maduro okay that was an
00:25:39.440 effective sensible operation step one it worked yeah it worked it was but it was targeted it had
00:25:44.380 a goal capture maduro put him in jail in america and by the time we knew about it it was done
00:25:48.240 exactly but that can't happen with iran so just bombing it until they submit i mean i don't want
00:25:55.020 get into it yeah but like it doesn't make sense uh starmer just um doesn't seem to be uh interested
00:26:01.380 in being a warthog the the labor government just doesn't seem to be interested in getting into it
00:26:05.680 saying well they've learned from iraq after both trump and blair have said come on you need to get
00:26:10.480 involved well and also the key reason why we voted for for trump in uh well not we but no
00:26:16.260 foreign wars yeah yeah no foreign wars yeah and no forever wars yeah and and it was it was exactly
00:26:22.260 what what starmer is saying here learning the lessons from iraq i mean that's why a lot of
00:26:25.860 maga went for trump it's because of no foreign wars and that's why a lot of maga are currently
00:26:30.800 very annoyed at trump i i understand the iran war only has like a 27 approval rating in america
00:26:36.940 oh it's it's insanely low and you know the fact that he's paler ground with lindsey graham and
00:26:40.860 lindsey graham has got the first direction since the invasion of afghanistan uh you know it shows
00:26:47.680 that the neocons have managed to get their hooks properly into the trump administration and into
00:26:51.180 trump himself it's such a shame yeah it's a total shame i'm not i'm not for it at all uh anyway who
00:26:56.580 was the first out of the gate to denounce well rupert low oh good i would i didn't check but i
00:27:02.400 thought you know instantly and the thing is at the time the conservatives and farage were you know
00:27:09.580 trump's like right on bombing iran and you could see them all coming okay brilliant can we bade
00:27:13.900 not farage i'd like to i'd like to support donald trump in his war in iran rupert low came out with
00:27:19.020 the right response no no war no strikes no troops you know sanctions pressures whatever is fine but
00:27:24.360 it's not our fight and we don't need to get involved well how does it i mean i i said earlier
00:27:29.240 how does it benefit america and i can't see a reason how it benefits america but it most certainly
00:27:33.440 doesn't benefit us no definitely benefits one country in the middle east though well that is
00:27:38.400 definitely been on their list for a long time yes i mean there's a certain prime minister in the
00:27:42.520 middle east who's been banging this drum for literally decades yeah probably longer but america
00:27:46.920 first is not supposed to mean israel first correct frankly yeah i mean the british public
00:27:52.340 rupert loads is showing his instincts completely aligned with the instincts of the british public
00:27:55.960 on this uh people are not actually in favor of it weirdly enough uh on the 2nd of march you had
00:28:02.100 uh about well 49 of people who were just opposed or strongly opposed uh with about 28 maybe
00:28:10.260 supporting and that's gone down to 25 supporting and more than half of people saying no i'm just
00:28:16.340 not for this. And reform voters themselves seem to be a bit out of step with the rest of the
00:28:22.720 country, frankly, on this one. But yeah, no, the majority position is we don't really want war
00:28:27.820 with Iran. What would it bring? What good would it be? And so Nigel Farage, like he has done on
00:28:33.780 almost every issue you can think, I mean, you recall in the last one of these we did, I pointed
00:28:38.960 out that Nigel Farage in 2024 said we're not taking Tory poison into our party. And now it is
00:28:44.780 the reconstituted Tory party well Nigel Farage has changed his position on that too uh he changed
00:28:51.580 his position on it on utilitarian grounds because we are not able to actually get involved in a
00:28:58.240 foreign war because actually we can't even defend Cyprus which he is correct about that I mean
00:29:02.840 there's nothing that we can do that America can't already I mean obviously so I mean yeah what's
00:29:08.920 the point but I mean there's just nothing we can do is basically the yes because we've only got
00:29:14.220 i think one aircraft carrier actually in the sea at the moment yes half of our fleet which is very
00:29:18.680 small anyway just a sea worthy the other 15 yeah we're not capable of fighting a long-range war
00:29:25.320 i mean it sounds it sounds like especially from the link you showed earlier that genric had better
00:29:30.060 instincts than farage on this yes and perhaps you know farage just went straight out there with
00:29:35.100 whatever he thought the talking point the mainstream media talking point was and and
00:29:39.020 genric has has managed to talk him around in the background well farage went with the zionist neocon
00:29:44.740 talking point right that was he he was like you know i know that lindsey graham is going to be in
00:29:49.260 favor of this that means theoretically the republican party will be in favor of it that
00:29:53.860 means the conservatives will be in favor of it and i exist in that space in politics therefore
00:29:58.380 i have to be in favor of it but like you say genric had a better instinct but now he's
00:30:02.260 contradicting the boss you know he's you know that's probably going to happen a lot and that's
00:30:06.720 going to lead to problems yes and i i think farage at this point feels vulnerable in that he can't
00:30:12.800 just kick out his best and brightest now so i think he just has to essentially tolerate the
00:30:19.040 fact that jenrich's publicly i mean if he i mean he i mean he's done this his whole career get rid
00:30:23.660 of people and i mean it really hurt him when he did that to rupert lowe because you know his
00:30:29.460 passport he he can't do it to generate now so he he's going to have to tolerate generate being of
00:30:34.700 a younger generation who doesn't just instantly go to whatever the sky news line is yeah i mean
00:30:39.760 jenrik uh has a profile of his own without you know you can say well ben habib rupert low you
00:30:45.680 know they were they were made by farage you could argue that case i'm not saying i agree with it but
00:30:50.080 you could at least argue that case but that's not the case of jenrik he is a former tory after all
00:30:55.100 who's defected after kemi bade not kicked him out because she found a paper that suggested he was
00:31:00.180 planning to defect and so they have made um a sort of strange bedfellows because apparently when when
00:31:06.460 he defected there was no uh talks between him and farage so this is all kind of cobbled together
00:31:10.640 and now they're kind of stuck with each other and so it's it looks vaguely uncomfortable when you
00:31:16.440 see them talking um but as uh will here points out look he's gonna change his position on everything
00:31:22.380 we never said we'd enshrine free speech we never said we conduct mass deportations we never said
00:31:27.520 we'd scrap net zero never said we'd cut foreign aid i never said we'd have accountability for
00:31:31.960 covid jabs or i never said we'd oppose digital id you can expect yeah all of this because farage
00:31:37.380 has always been a man of the moment rather than someone who is following a moral guiding star
00:31:42.420 so you know he never actually firmly commits to a position yeah well i mean as as i've already
00:31:48.180 talked about a couple of times on on this uh episode there's a number of things he said where
00:31:52.920 i was very quickly able to say you know it's not as simple as that because of this this that and
00:31:56.640 that and i mean it seems like every time he encounters one of these he comes out what he
00:32:02.000 thinks the right line is that his sort of silver-haired audience are going to respond to
00:32:06.240 and then somebody comes along and explains it to him and then he sort of backpedals and pretends
00:32:10.360 he never had that position in the first place i mean that's precisely what's happened here
00:32:14.000 well yes in fact if can we get have we got an age breakdown here i bet if there's an age breakdown
00:32:19.460 in here you'll find the boomers i did yes the whole thing almost certainly yeah i mean like
00:32:24.820 the fact that it's reform primarily we think this is a good idea suggests this is a boomer issue
00:32:30.340 as in the less likely you are to be conscripted funnily enough the more in favor you are of um
00:32:35.760 yeah but also it's the the sort of the boomer view you know the cold war view yes we have to
00:32:41.540 be taking out foreign governments who aren't already on side our churchill moment be noble
00:32:46.780 yeah send the young men off to die in a foreign desert i'm surprised there's not any breakdown
00:32:52.360 here i wasn't even look i didn't even think about that when i was uh preparing this i think you're
00:32:56.680 you're correct but anyway so he like you're exactly right his instinct is to go in a certain
00:33:03.480 direction but the thing is his instincts have actually been wrong recently and he's made a
00:33:07.720 series of blunders so um let's go on to the polling oh good because the polling is not not
00:33:15.720 superb now um i've been using the uk election data vault pollster ratings uh just to contextualize
00:33:22.920 the polling so as you can see here you've got the a minus grades so you've got you go of opinion
00:33:27.960 ipsos mori north stat observation variant uh then the b my b and b minus you've got delta
00:33:33.640 pole bmg savanta you've got focal data at c and then you've got a bunch of them on d jl partners
00:33:39.880 lord ashcroft at the bottom there yeah lord ashcroft at the very bottom of the deep
00:33:44.200 with a D minus. And so you've got the, and these are, as they tell us, based on the accuracy of
00:33:52.680 their polling. How much does the polling actually represent the final results when the elections
00:33:58.080 are actually held? And so this is something that a lot of people aren't very happy with,
00:34:03.660 because they've noticed that actually, if you look at, for example, there we go, opinion polling,
00:34:11.780 we seem to have passed peak reform yeah so as you can see uh the average opinion polling on
00:34:18.120 electoral calculus uh is um 28 and that's up until very recently so it was early 25 when it
00:34:30.500 really started to turn do you remember when he kicked out low because that was the moment that
00:34:36.160 we were like what yeah let me just because i mean he he i mean he had it all i mean he had
00:34:45.200 he had the he had the mainstream was coming over he had the the feeling in the country
00:34:49.740 i mean he had the online right and then he just did one assassination too many in such a clumsy
00:34:54.660 obvious way i don't even think it's to do that because it was march yeah no i do remember at
00:34:59.520 the time 25 the upswing carried on for a little while and then it started to turn yeah so that
00:35:05.100 that didn't actually affect things um but this so this is basically farage organically failing on
00:35:11.240 his own right so that's electoral calculus coming down to 28 and this is a poll of polls so it's the
00:35:16.040 average of the opinion polls uh the spectator has an average of their opinion polls you can't make
00:35:20.460 these any bigger unfortunately but uh i don't know whether you can see that they're on yeah i can see
00:35:24.840 the trend yeah they're on 28 as well but as you can see from the sort of high of 31 32 something
00:35:30.980 like that down to 28 i mean it's not the most catastrophic collapse but it's not the trend that
00:35:37.420 you're looking for no and looking at the other lines they don't seem to be benefiting from it
00:35:42.340 either no it's not really going anywhere uh the greens are actually on a bit of a downswing
00:35:47.860 recently in the average of the polls there and labor and conservative are both just yesterday's
00:35:53.700 dead dead in the water same with the liberal democrats frankly like the greens you would
00:35:58.320 think would be doing a lot better given how much they stand to actually gain and how much they
00:36:04.360 have actually gained i mean we've gotten them down to by-election and then you've got the
00:36:09.820 political polar polls which is a bit more brutal so for their averaging 25 which is rough i mean
00:36:20.220 this is just i mean when we started doing this they were high 20s and we we kind of assumed from
00:36:24.880 that they'd be pushing into 30 before long yeah i mean you know oh there we go they did brush into
00:36:30.400 the 30s yeah august um and that's the average of 31 so you had outlier polls yeah up 35 percent
00:36:37.480 you had a few that was a bit under but average of 31 there the high point yeah their average is now
00:36:42.720 their previous low their low mark yes exactly and none of the outliers are coming anywhere near
00:36:48.340 what they used to be so i think we can agree there has been an organic downturn and of course
00:36:54.840 this coincides slowly but surely with the more conservatives Nigel Farage accepts into the party
00:37:01.100 let's look at a few um actual polls just to get some honestly it's quite brutal numbers
00:37:05.720 because on five yeah well that hurts when you started on 30 exactly that was 32 down to 27
00:37:13.160 this is from BMG that's a B minus grade on this poll uh not good right that is that is really not
00:37:20.960 good uh the complete opposite direction you want to be going in if you're farage uh the next one
00:37:28.000 is jl partners which is a d plus so not great but uh other at plus eight there so that's a lot for
00:37:35.880 other isn't it yeah it's interesting there's a lot but um but what's interesting here of course
00:37:40.880 is again minus four for reform so significant dip in the polls labor down terribly as well
00:37:48.900 obviously and the greens on 14 so again reflecting i mean that's that's that's what 16 when you start
00:37:56.380 at 30 about that yeah yeah that's a huge swing but reflecting the poll of polls right it's very
00:38:03.440 similar to the rest of the numbers on the polling averages so i'm inclined to believe that there is
00:38:10.100 this kind of decay that is set into the poll numbers for um basically not just reform all of
00:38:16.960 them actually uh the next one here we have is servation where you can see they've got reform
00:38:22.340 on 29 but they're still down again other on nine percent that was one of the top ranked ones wasn't
00:38:27.420 it that was yeah servation are an a minus right uh and so maybe you know this this who knows i
00:38:36.000 think that 12 for the greens is probably the more realistic number actually some of the polls have
00:38:41.240 had the greens in like second or third place which i think is overstating it somewhat but um but
00:38:46.780 again other nine percent that's a that's a lot of other isn't it that's that could do breaking out
00:38:52.680 but like like you were saying the other day um we're witnessing the shattering of the political
00:38:58.960 environment and this can't go on forever and the fact that there's the you know there's not much
00:39:06.000 between any of them at this point so at least any of the main parties so it's like right okay that's
00:39:11.660 Very, very interesting.
00:39:13.140 But the one that's really getting everyone's back up
00:39:15.300 is YouGov pollings.
00:39:17.380 Now, YouGov, A-,
00:39:19.620 in the survey ratings,
00:39:21.660 in the polling ratings,
00:39:23.160 23%.
00:39:24.740 Ooh.
00:39:26.720 Oh, that's not good.
00:39:28.540 Yeah.
00:39:29.520 Really brutal, with no change.
00:39:31.400 So this is held on multiple polls
00:39:33.580 that they've had.
00:39:35.480 And look at the Labour Party, though.
00:39:40.440 17...
00:39:40.760 4th place.
00:39:41.660 that is just what is happening i mean to be fair looking at that list reform conservative greens
00:39:48.860 labor libdom none of them deserve to win no and they're all on about a fifth of the vote none
00:39:53.760 none of them are going to change anything none of them offer something new for britain it's it's all
00:39:59.060 just whatever we've been doing for the past few years or decades we're going to carry on doing it
00:40:03.540 we're just going to wrap we're just going to wrap it in a different set of rhetoric exactly but the
00:40:08.160 the fundamental premises are anyone is british as long as they have a british passport and
00:40:13.080 we are not going to reduce the size of the state we're not going to bring the
00:40:17.800 arm's length bodies the quangocracy under control we're not going to bring the bank
00:40:21.760 we're not going to change the system logical taxes exactly right we are literally here to
00:40:26.640 just tinker around the edges as the thing is already set and that's not paying off for any
00:40:31.860 of them really like you get to choose how you dispositionally feel about the rhetoric that
00:40:36.720 comes out of each one but you know that substantively they're all going to provide the
00:40:40.700 same thing uh and this when broken down into the seats is terrible actually so this is that polling
00:40:51.520 modeled out in an election and obviously it comes out to hung parliament uh which is i mean
00:40:57.800 was like absolutely
00:41:00.840 ruined. Remind me, 650 seats
00:41:03.560 so a majority
00:41:04.200 and the Sinn Féin don't send there
00:41:07.260 so it's something like
00:41:08.340 326
00:41:10.440 326 is it? That's what you need
00:41:13.280 That's what you need for a majority government
00:41:15.080 And they're on for
00:41:16.660 They're on for more than
00:41:19.560 100 less than what they need
00:41:20.920 Correct. In fact, even with a coalition
00:41:23.300 with the Conservatives
00:41:24.380 Which they're basically already in because they keep taking their MPs
00:41:27.680 Would only be 323 seats.
00:41:30.480 So you would need reform the Conservatives
00:41:34.980 and presumably all of the Northern Ireland parties,
00:41:39.960 but even then you only just scrape by.
00:41:43.720 So you would need at least an element,
00:41:45.460 you'd need a confidence and supply arrangement
00:41:47.200 with either Lib Dems or Labour.
00:41:49.880 It would be an incredibly fragile thing.
00:41:53.000 Oh, yeah.
00:41:53.460 And of course, the Greens, Labour and Lib Dems,
00:41:56.600 they couldn't form a coalition even if they wanted to uh so there's a shattered country
00:42:02.760 this is just italian politics this is this is nothing gets done the civil servants run everything
00:42:08.400 yeah there's there's no there's no coherent agenda there's no way anything could be fixed
00:42:13.420 and now just to be clear this is the most pessimistic of the polls um there are there
00:42:21.180 are polls where reform gets something like 306 seats so yeah but still so a pact with the
00:42:26.640 conservatives would work they would actually be able to do that but um but what why do we bother
00:42:31.760 having elections if we're just going to end up with tory and labor every single time i mean just
00:42:35.660 just let them do it on a bloody rotor system and save our effort but also i mean go back six months
00:42:41.260 yeah this was all turquoise oh yes this was a sea of teal i remember you showed me the map and it
00:42:47.880 was just turquoise everywhere apart from the odd splodge of yellow and the cities which would still
00:42:52.620 be labor or green yes and so what farage has done here is actually broken the mingvars right yes he
00:42:58.820 has actually failed to maintain what was a commanding position more than 30 percent which
00:43:06.160 is all labor won on in the last election remember yes good point and and less than jeremy corbyn got
00:43:11.960 less than Jeremy Corbyn got to get their 418 seats or whatever it was. Farage was regularly
00:43:17.920 being predicted to get 400 seats. This was an easy government in waiting and he had the swagger
00:43:22.720 to go with it. Well, he made a series of really bad decisions. Well, you showed us a couple of
00:43:26.420 videos. There's no swagger in any of that. Exactly right. He sounds stressed. He sounds
00:43:31.440 like he's a man who realizes the opportunity is sliding through his fingers. And I'm sorry to say
00:43:37.920 but it's nigel farage's decisions that have caused this 100 you didn't need to take in
00:43:43.640 nadim zahawi nadine doris jemrick sweller all the other tories you didn't need to take in the
00:43:49.200 pro-refugee labor counselors or plague um well the ones in the senate senate welsh oh whatever
00:44:00.560 right you didn't need to take in a bunch of tories you didn't need to take tory donors
00:44:05.000 to be your men you to be your funders you didn't need to then come out and give uni party talking
00:44:11.060 points like well we're cutting we're cutting the taxes by not raising them as much as other people
00:44:16.860 are raising them which i don't even know if that's true by the way i didn't even bother checking so
00:44:20.320 who cares and you didn't have to come out in full throat support immediately of the iran war that
00:44:25.080 nobody wants and yet you did all of these things and you've shown people you're not really the
00:44:31.640 alternative that people thought well the thing is he's got the attention on him now because
00:44:35.900 everybody thought yeah he's going to win as our earlier discussions we all thought that he was
00:44:39.900 going to win with a with a landslide which means he gets the attention and when he gets the attention
00:44:45.340 you discover that he's actually not in any way different to what was offered before at all he
00:44:52.080 just sounds like a tory mp uh and so this this is this is pretty awful for reform genuinely awful
00:45:00.020 uh this this is not a government in waiting and so all of that hassle is like remember the other
00:45:05.720 week when he did his uh big event where he's got the the podiums he's like this is gonna be my
00:45:10.180 shadow chancellor it's gonna be my shadow home secretary and it's like okay well it very hillary
00:45:16.740 clinton congratulations to this next president yes right yes it's like okay but it doesn't look
00:45:22.960 like you're gonna get that now no and this isn't the only poll of course that is rather harsh i
00:45:28.460 I mean, there's a Lord Ashcroft poll here that has them on 22%, which is just oof.
00:45:34.780 I know Lord Ashcroft got beaten up, but he was the closest on a previous election.
00:45:41.620 He was the closest on Brexit.
00:45:43.420 That was it, Brexit.
00:45:44.360 He pretty much nailed Brexit.
00:45:46.180 So, I mean, you know, that ranking of pollsters is a bit, you know, what have you done to me lately?
00:45:52.100 But, you know, ultimately, any of those pollsters could be right, and none of them are good for him.
00:45:57.280 yes that's that's exactly right any any of them could be correct and none of them good for him
00:46:01.540 and so you what's weird about this is like guido forks are like oh yeah why isn't he getting to
00:46:10.520 where we expect him to be in the other polls like well and as i say of the last 10 published
00:46:16.300 westminster intention voting polls you guys average for reform has been 24.8 percent
00:46:21.040 well the average from opinion was 30 percent it was like okay but you gov are hardly um
00:46:29.580 a deeply anti-farage institution i mean their co-founder is in reform yes so the deems of
00:46:38.640 yeah now he doesn't work with you gov now he's actually left it and does other things but the
00:46:44.560 point being you'd think there'd be some sort of you know institutional sympathy for him because
00:46:50.480 mean he was the founder right i mean we're not did they turn i think there was three of them i met
00:46:54.560 them once when they were pitching but yeah there's two others i don't know what happened to them but
00:46:58.040 presumably they're still exactly right and so it you can't be like okay well you gov is producing
00:47:05.200 this statistical outlier out of bias against the party its founder is now in like that just doesn't
00:47:11.300 wash it doesn't in fact i seem to remember that was it all three of them it might have been all
00:47:16.640 three of them were um tory councillors for uh one of the one of the london boroughs which had a had
00:47:24.260 a tory council on it so yeah they're all of the same sort of ideological bent yeah they're they're
00:47:30.120 all um people with inside the westminster consensus yes and it's that's fine i mean obviously that's
00:47:35.960 what you'd expect but you can see this sort of uh cope here you go there's the odd one out well
00:47:41.420 no it's not the odd one out that's the thing there are actually a couple that do say this
00:47:45.260 and this is a problem that they're grappling with is well what if you gov are right because as we
00:47:52.620 saw at the beginning well they get an a minus result that's the best result that's on that
00:47:56.660 pollster rating they're not terrible like you know i don't know what to tell you i i i've thought they
00:48:03.260 were terrible in the past but the longer that i've done this the more i've realized well they're as
00:48:09.120 reliable as any other poll that's the point it's not saying a huge amount but as polls go
00:48:14.720 it's not saying a huge amount but i i think it might be capturing something as with the lord
00:48:19.900 ashcroft one i think it might be capturing a general lack of riz that well the polar pole
00:48:24.800 things that you showed when the trend is the trend and it's down yeah even yeah exactly on all of the
00:48:30.280 uh poles if i can get there yep but yeah all of the polar poles it's just downwards that's a line
00:48:37.340 going down that you could you could ski that yeah yeah yeah yeah you absolutely could and it's not
00:48:42.280 what you want if you're if you're purportedly the government in waiting that's announcing shadow
00:48:46.260 cabinets which i mean like everyone got a nigel ferrari's rear end about that but you're not the
00:48:51.920 opposition party you can't have a chat okay calm down they are leading the polls you know calm
00:48:56.620 down you know it's fine for them to sort of preemptively say it but it's only fine to preemptively
00:49:01.300 say it if it's actually working yes and i'm not sure that it is uh there was a another poll here
00:49:09.380 that um had restore organically placed at two percent and what was interesting about this
00:49:15.220 when you say organically what you mean is they were not they were not prompted they were not
00:49:19.220 offered with restore they they just made a point of saying no restore rupert lowe's restore britain
00:49:26.020 makes his first appearance in our polling registering two percent in his first outing
00:49:28.760 your party comes in at less than one percent both parties are initially prompted as part of another
00:49:32.680 party or independent candidate response option so you've got a click other than rupert lowe right
00:49:37.620 so yeah there's so the anyone who does anything with the internet will know that the more clicks
00:49:43.680 you have to make the more attrition you get i mean the the entire amazon business model is reducing
00:49:49.400 the number of clicks because it really matters it really matters yes uh so the fact that two percent
00:49:56.520 of them were like yeah no other things so that to to the point where restore restore had to break
00:50:01.640 through is very interesting because this is one that didn't directly prompt for them so we went
00:50:06.200 directly prompted there have been ones where they've been on seven percent six percent much
00:50:09.360 higher yeah much higher but when even when not prompted people like no i'm having that so that's
00:50:14.400 that's interesting not only are they not prompted they're not covered on the mainstream media which
00:50:18.340 is still what most people watch absolutely and nigel france was like well you only you'll be on
00:50:22.540 one percent it's like well well they've already doubled that yeah exactly they've already beaten
00:50:26.720 that uh and just to just finish off uh what what are the important issues that people are concerned
00:50:31.940 about is it is it iran war at the top no oh right no it's not uh it's immigration the thing that
00:50:38.020 apparently we can't do anything about yeah according to nigel farage himself who says
00:50:41.740 it's impossible according to his latest defection says no actually it's okay to have immigration as
00:50:47.260 long as you get the curry yes um that the one thing that the people british people care about
00:50:52.800 more than anything is the one thing that all of those prompted parties will not give you correct
00:50:58.740 and also the one thing that again he flip-flops on and so you've got and i mean i forgot to bring
00:51:05.800 up for this that the guardian uh published an article about a poll that's been done of reform
00:51:10.380 members and 54 of reform members said that they think that non-white people should essentially
00:51:17.340 be encouraged to leave the country bloody hell that's a lot harsher than even we go yeah exactly
00:51:22.160 i've never said that i'm not i wouldn't advocate for that that's that's a bit bloody far but the
00:51:27.180 point is nigel frage i think is misunderstanding his own base well i i would go further and say
00:51:33.500 that his own base is misunderstanding him well yes there's the there is that the reason why
00:51:38.940 you're still getting whatever it is 22 24 is because that 22 or 24 of people think that he
00:51:46.600 is going to do deportations and a hell of a lot harsher line than even we go on stuff like that
00:51:52.000 yeah and and and when they start and and basically what he needs to do is to not let his own base
00:51:58.940 discover what his policies are because if if if they figure out what he's really about
00:52:05.940 that 22 will go down to like six or seven percent i i completely agree that that is that is Nigel
00:52:12.620 Farage's current key strategy make sure nobody finds out about what i think yes yeah literally
00:52:19.440 whereas Rupert's low strategy is the opposite make sure people find out what I'm about correct
00:52:25.740 so the the I mean defense was 35 percent because it's been in the news right the Iran war but um
00:52:33.660 well I know that it says defense not blowing up schools in the Middle East but yeah sure but like
00:52:38.560 you know the defense of the country is an important issue yes there are these things going on but as
00:52:42.920 you can see like immigration the economy have been pretty collectively tied as being the most
00:52:47.540 important issues and they are deeply tied together of course i mean there's something you can take
00:52:51.820 from that if if you're trying to win power in this country and you had an honest media
00:52:55.940 you would just talk about immigration or deportations and the economy and taxes just
00:53:01.020 all day long that's that's what you would talk about well you tie it together we can deport
00:53:04.420 people and your wages are going to go up yes that's that's the selling pitch uh but anyway
00:53:09.460 so the point being here um frankly like nigel farage is not the man that his own party think
00:53:16.680 he is he is not going to get any of the things that anyone actually wants done because he's
00:53:22.300 already committed to the uniparty premises of government yep he's not going to fundamentally
00:53:27.660 change the structures of any of these things and i don't even think he's going to win no and and
00:53:33.840 i think that he knows everything you've just said yes and that's why in every video that you've just
00:53:38.800 shown us he's stressed out he's stressed he's rattled he's uncomfortable that is not the the
00:53:44.260 it's not the swagger of a year ago is it you know because that was the thing and that's the that's
00:53:47.900 the thing that really struck stuck in my mind watching that uh the petrol station gimmick it
00:53:53.340 was like wow he he doesn't look confident no and he did look confident there and rightly so yes
00:53:59.980 rightly so like a year ago he looked like he was about to smash the entire thing and it looks like
00:54:05.420 the swamp has basically taken him in yes and made him he's now the horse and never-ending story i
00:54:11.700 I mean, is he being dragged into the swamp and he's, oh, bugger.
00:54:15.140 Or it's like the Borg or something from Star Trek.
00:54:17.540 It's like Locutius of Borg or whatever it is.
00:54:19.680 It's like, oh, right, okay.
00:54:21.340 Right, I get it.
00:54:23.120 This is just more of the same.
00:54:24.440 And I think the gradual, slow, but what appears to be essentially an inexorable decline is locked in now.
00:54:34.140 Because if people, as I personally view, I mean, I don't know what the average person is turning away from reform for, right?
00:54:41.700 Why aren't they impressed with Nigel Farage?
00:54:43.680 Why aren't they supporting him?
00:54:44.840 Well, I think it's because they've listened
00:54:46.380 to what he's actually got to say,
00:54:47.580 and they don't like it.
00:54:48.660 Yeah, and I think a lot of it is
00:54:50.780 they were like, I wanted an outsider.
00:54:52.720 I think a lot of it is,
00:54:53.640 I didn't want Tories or Labour.
00:54:56.220 And I think...
00:54:56.900 That's what it reminds me of.
00:54:59.400 If you go to McDonald's and get a burger
00:55:01.680 and take the meat out,
00:55:04.120 it tastes of nothing, literally nothing.
00:55:07.980 What they do is you could then put
00:55:09.860 whatever sauce and gherkins and cheese
00:55:11.480 on top of it and all the flavor comes from that other stuff i think the reason why reform have
00:55:16.500 worked is because they've allowed their supporters to project onto them what they wanted oh it's
00:55:23.760 different from the uniparty this is what i want that must be what they're about and he's got
00:55:28.860 nowhere to go because he can't always been his rhetoric his rhetoric is always the one of the
00:55:33.160 outsider yes but but he's got absolutely nowhere to go now because he he can't abandon what he
00:55:38.500 what he's actually for because he's boxed in with the people who actually watch this stuff
00:55:43.280 and pay attention and that's where his support's coming from that's where his institutional backing
00:55:47.320 is coming from um but at the same time he he's got to stop people from actually seeing what he's
00:55:53.380 about but you're not going to do that with all of the attention for the period of the next two and
00:55:58.520 a half years but i don't even know if he can do that because he i i like i said that's why he's
00:56:05.720 boxed in yes completely but i think he's also like what he's done is made a series of choices
00:56:13.260 that made the decline inevitable right because he if if he was saying look i'm not labor of the
00:56:18.520 conservatives and we're actually gonna be a patriotic party that's gonna fix this country
00:56:21.260 well now everyone just sees tories yes backers tory donors tory mps tory councillors whatever
00:56:28.360 and the media is treating him like the tories when he comes out with tory rhetoric is well
00:56:33.360 we didn't raise it as much as the Labour Party would have done so you know vote for us I think
00:56:37.400 that what he's done is made essentially a prison for himself yeah he can't go anywhere else now
00:56:41.700 and it's just going to be a slow decline and so the question is when does Nigel Farage pack it in
00:56:47.420 because yes if you know it's it's averaging 25 now what happens when it's averaging 21
00:56:53.760 well I mean the reason why he was out of this for so long the reason why Richard Tice was running
00:56:58.880 it for so long because it wasn't polling anywhere yep and he thought well i'm just going to go and
00:57:03.680 make lots of money being on gb news yep and doing my i'll go to america to help donald trump not
00:57:09.240 that he wanted it um he's always been very fair weather on this stuff he only as you've said he
00:57:14.500 only came back because he was convinced he was going to win and how long is he going to stick
00:57:19.320 around doing this day in day out this stressful job as opposed to making lots of money it's not
00:57:25.980 going to be for that long well that's that's the question and so i think that the the gradual
00:57:29.800 decline will continue from everything that we can see at the moment there's no reason to think
00:57:34.380 the gradual decline won't continue and i think that when he gets i mean imagine if it goes below
00:57:40.300 20 i think he'll just bounce i think he'll just like yep the slightly more funny thing would be
00:57:45.520 what if he bounces and then robert jenrich takes over and then it improves yeah and then yeah
00:57:49.620 exactly will he do the same thing as he did to that guy in clacton will he come back five minutes
00:57:54.460 before the election and boot generic out and say right i'm in again now that's a great question
00:57:58.480 and i guess it'll stand to be stand to be resolved but uh yeah so anyway um
00:58:03.320 reform seems to have just lost their rears