The Podcast of the Lotus Eaters - Will Labour Pivot？

00:00:00.000 hi folks welcome back to our rolling coverage of the nightmare dystopia that is british politics

00:00:04.220 i'm joined by dan and we're going to be talking about a bunch of things that have happened because

00:00:08.700 actually though british politics seems to be very uh turgid at this point there is motion and you

00:00:15.960 can see it subtly but incrementally moving in a certain direction this series is sort of becoming

00:00:22.580 edward gibbons the decline and fall of the labor party we're charting it it is but i'm quite

00:00:27.940 enjoying that oh yeah it's good yeah i'm i'm very much appreciating it so let's have a look at some

00:00:33.340 uh by election council by elections now council by elections not the most exciting elections that

00:00:38.400 have ever happened but they're indicative but exactly they they are actually something tangible

00:00:43.820 it's not just polling it is something tangible power is changing hands even if it's only

00:00:48.180 a local council but as you can see here it looks like the labor vote in darlington red hall and

00:00:56.780 lingfield just switched basically to a reform uh the and and the green sorry um the greens only up to

00:01:05.080 9.8 on this one labor down 37 reform brand new 37.7 that is and the lib dems as well epic

00:01:15.040 so the labor vote is just splitting in a bunch of directions yeah so who's left well probably the nhs

00:01:22.240 workers yes like a local administrator although we did get comments on the last video where there

00:01:30.580 was a number of nhs people were keen to point out that i work for the nhs and i hate labor too

00:01:34.520 hey guys i'm not saying that not all of them i'm not all of the nhs but yes the nhs is something like

00:01:39.840 the seventh largest employer in the world yes also the seventh largest well the largest religion in

00:01:45.280 britain correct like and so it's it's not that every nhs worker loves the labor party but you know

00:01:52.460 everyone who votes for the labor party is an nhs work yes uh anyway so that's that's a pretty crushing

00:01:58.300 uh defeat there really for the labor party if i were them but right so we've lost about three

00:02:02.880 quarters of our vote here every that's not good yeah conservatives down 22 you've got to imagine

00:02:07.900 most of that went to reform although i can imagine some of it would have gone to the lib dems

00:02:11.620 whatever reason didn't contest this one last time around no um and as you can see this is just just

00:02:17.300 brutal for the center yeah as we keep mentioning the complete collapse of the center and so you see

00:02:24.020 the radical fringe going into the greens the people who don't want anything changed they have nice big

00:02:28.900 gardens going to the lib dems and of course the angry english going to reform anyway so we've got other

00:02:34.040 ones uh this isn't quite so crushing because labor of course uh went in charge of this one uh but going

00:02:39.700 down from uh almost 20 down to four percent reform absolutely storming it the independent didn't run

00:02:47.400 in this one and uh most of it went to reform oh this was previously an independent yeah right yeah but

00:02:53.340 again it's just another one where it's just like the labor vote collapsing now conservatives actually

00:02:57.560 managed to maintain themselves here but reform pipped it at the post at the very end so you know nothing

00:03:03.180 nothing terribly exciting on that one but uh but here you've got the uh the lib dems obviously not

00:03:09.560 running a candidate and where did it go well a lot of it went to the greens but a lot of it seems to

00:03:16.140 have gone to reform as well and so i think this is that's it so so lib dem when they don't when you're

00:03:23.020 not offered the choice to vote lib dem a lot of people do go to reform it looks that way interesting

00:03:28.060 supporting my thesis that actually lib dem and reform voters are basically the same constituency

00:03:33.120 just at different economic brackets that yes and so that's good evidence i i'm not going to say this

00:03:41.400 is the most hard and fast evidence ever but i think that it is indicative yeah but we made a prediction

00:03:46.820 and every time we look at results it looks like our prediction was hangs together yeah i mean half of

00:03:51.460 them probably went to the greens it looks like but uh but again not not great and this is obviously a

00:03:56.560 die-hard conservative area so interesting isn't it uh there are other ones this is fort william and

00:04:03.520 uh i can't pronounce that up in scotland uh this has been a lib dem stronghold uh well stronghold but

00:04:10.560 it's been a lib dem area and the north of scotland is weirdly liberal democrat especially the um

00:04:16.180 orkney and shetland islands the lib dem mostly is a lib dems are weird because they don't operate by

00:04:21.400 the rules of other political parties and what the lib dems do is is they build a cluster of um

00:04:26.340 councillors and so on and then them and their sort of immediate family and friends go out and and

00:04:31.960 their ground game is the best in british politics they go out they they pound the streets they deliver

00:04:39.040 the leaflet so once you once you've got a lib dem infestation in your area it's very difficult to

00:04:43.780 eradicate it almost ever i'm i'm i'm in a lib dem area unfortunately good god it's insufferable

00:04:49.300 they really are but what what's interesting about this they took it off the snp um fairly handily

00:04:55.220 there actually as well getting 40 percent of the vote last few election cycles i've heard about the

00:05:00.360 snp a lot yeah i've not heard a whisper out of them lately yeah it's because they're they're on a

00:05:05.620 slow decline much much slower decline than labor i don't even know who their leader is anymore you

00:05:10.900 it was alex sammond who was a gifted politician nicola sturgeon yeah then it was that little um

00:05:15.160 cranky woman yeah uh no idea who it even is today to be honest it's an insane woke sjw

00:05:20.580 i think he's the leader actually you know i would have to double check that actually but the the point

00:05:26.780 being on this one though uh lib dems do very well in the very north of scotland for some reason and i

00:05:31.440 think it's because essentially they're positioning themselves as kind of like an anti-snp like we're not

00:05:36.980 the snp the snp are like based around edinburgh well this is why the coalition was so destructive

00:05:41.900 for the lib dems because the game the lib dems have always played is in the south they position

00:05:47.400 themselves as a nicer alternative to the conservative party in the north they position

00:05:51.460 themselves as a nicer alternative to the labor party and in scotland they position themselves

00:05:55.400 as a nicer version to the snp and the reason why the coalition was so destructive to them

00:05:59.840 is because they had to actually pick a side yes and then it shattered the illusion and that's why

00:06:05.680 when i think nick clegg he won whatever it was like um it might have been 50 60 seats something like

00:06:10.140 that and that got him into the coalition and then they just kind of crashed after that and

00:06:14.060 then and now that memories are fading they're doing the whole game of they're slowly working

00:06:19.280 themselves back up and at the moment they're doing quite well haven't they got like 70 seats or

00:06:22.600 something they know they're yeah it's something like this is it is pretty substantial but it's it's

00:06:28.180 definitely a capped uh constituency but anyway so you can see that the snp i think the same are on a

00:06:34.340 slow decline here's uh west lothian where reform actually gained something uh west lothian yeah

00:06:40.940 scotland um reform actually gained a again just a council by-election but scotland doesn't like

00:06:47.620 the reform party and doesn't like farage because farage is very england coded well there was a thing

00:06:53.300 a couple of years ago where reform uh nigel farage tried to do a tour of scotland and it went very

00:06:58.040 badly for him and he kind of had to bail out and exit it so the narrative has always been that

00:07:03.900 reform aren't going to make any progress in scotland but evidently you know they feel the

00:07:08.580 candidate bang 32 win it yeah and and you'll notice here the labor vote and the snp is on the

00:07:15.660 decline here obviously the conservatives completely collapsed as well i imagine the snp vote uh went to

00:07:21.980 the independent candidate maybe who knows i don't know enough about the constituency to be able to

00:07:26.300 actually uh you know tease that out but the point is the labor vote and the snp and the conservatives

00:07:31.600 again traditional old parties of these areas in the current modern paradigm they have no energy

00:07:37.780 nobody's interested exactly no momentum and like yeah like you said um farage i just think he's very

00:07:44.380 english and the scots don't like him for it you know i mean they like him enough to to elect his

00:07:50.040 people well that's the point isn't it the the changing of the wind is no actually reform can get

00:07:57.100 somewhere in scotland i mean the reform are doing great in wales as well uh which again is one of

00:08:02.800 those things it's like oh he is very english so it's like yeah okay but you're fucking terrible yeah

00:08:06.880 you know i would rather nigel farage swig his pints and smoke his uh cigarettes uh than have you in

00:08:14.220 charge you know what this reminds me of it reminds me of california where even if you're a right-wing

00:08:18.400 individual you still join the democrat party to get elected and do and you get these javan newsom

00:08:24.160 yeah well i i don't know if i'll go to him but you do get these characters in uh in politics in

00:08:30.520 in california who are actually quite right right-wing insensible but they're members are we seeing that

00:08:35.360 with britain where everybody's going to be a reform member but wow a different shade of them is is there

00:08:42.560 anyone apart from tommy robinson that reform have actually refused recently yeah i mean what was it um

00:08:48.400 so in portsmouth they've got a boris wave boat migrant i don't know if he's a boat migrant but they've got

00:08:53.940 a boris wave migrant standing for a seat in portsmouth a guy literally on indefinite leave

00:08:58.640 to remain that they've promised to revoke yes what are we doing he's good enough to reform yeah

00:09:03.440 rupert lowe isn't um yeah they just welcomed bonnie blue a literal whore um she's good enough

00:09:09.300 she's a whore she doesn't charge their point you know i think yes you know that's people there's a lot

00:09:16.780 misnomers there all right she's she's just what's i well i don't like her so i massive slag yes like

00:09:23.840 i don't know what else to describe i think she'd describe herself that way apex feminist is how also

00:09:28.420 how else she's described herself the point is she's welcoming reform and again rupert lowe isn't

00:09:33.640 czar rupert lowe no tommy robinson no bobby blue yes boat migrant yes yes right okay moving on

00:09:42.580 uh here's uh leash field armitage and handsacre you can see the conservatives did hold it uh but

00:09:50.400 labor lost two-thirds of their vote and even though the conservatives lost a lot of their vote and

00:09:56.040 this must have literally the lib dems labor and the conservatives getting sucked up by reform

00:10:01.460 and you can see i mean even in this even though the conservatives held it you can see where the

00:10:05.080 momentum is yeah if i were the if i were the conservatives i'd be like okay okay we are still

00:10:09.940 here but that's not good uh what are we doing wrong and then you have uh darlington did i cover

00:10:16.360 that one no cover that one sorry um did i come cover that one last one yeah i did come on yeah

00:10:25.040 there have been lots of these uh and so yeah so let's get into party membership then because um

00:10:31.520 turns out that reform are leading the pack now now under jeremy corbyn labor had half a million members

00:10:38.060 well uh they something like 550 000 because jeremy corbyn put the membership price down to like a

00:10:43.960 fiver or something uh and the corbynistas rushed into the party to be fair i was four of those

00:10:51.000 memberships because because when when they when they changed the rules i signed up under multiple

00:10:56.600 different names because i knew that when he went i would get to vote in the leadership election

00:11:02.480 four times and i i think i voted for diane abbott well i would have voted for diane at this point

00:11:09.480 honestly diane abbott is way more base than usual i mean like yes her coming out four jury trials

00:11:14.120 against david lammy abolishing them was like okay base diane abbott i mean well i mean any

00:11:18.740 any 80s socialist is well to the right of modern leftists yeah that's that's totally true so it's not

00:11:26.620 exactly clear um what the exact numbers of anyone other than reform is actually because reform is anyone who

00:11:32.140 actually puts it out they had a bit of a controversy a while ago you might remember where people were

00:11:36.000 claiming well this this tracker isn't real and so they allowed some it guys to validate and say no

00:11:41.520 it's drawing from a database like it is drawing from the actual database so that's pretty accurate as

00:11:45.760 far as we can tell uh yeah labor probably less than quarter of a million at this point greens

00:11:50.180 something more than 180 000 because zach polanski has gone a massive recruiting drive and the

00:11:55.720 conservatives somewhere less than 123 000 well and if we get a bad flu season that will go down even more

00:12:01.020 praying that there's not another covid strike uh for the conservative membership uh the lib dem's

00:12:08.940 around 83 000 which is fairly normal hasn't changed that much so the most remarkable thing here is uh

00:12:15.540 labor and the conservatives i mean conservatives had more than 200 000 only a few years ago

00:12:19.860 and it can't be just father time that has come along with the scythe and done all the work on that

00:12:25.700 either um labor like i said had more than half a million they were by far the largest party uh but

00:12:32.560 now as you can see it's greens and reform and this is all very new he's remember reform have only been

00:12:39.080 cracking for about four years now um nigel farage has been more a year and a half something like that

00:12:45.180 in parliament so he's like this is all very very recent and the greens is in the last couple of

00:12:52.060 months for zach polanski they went from something like 20 000 members and if you add up reform and

00:12:56.500 green it comes to more than the establishments yes by far and it's growing yes and they're shrinking

00:13:03.160 and that's the thing the the momentum exactly as you say the the the change in the wind is against

00:13:10.860 the new it's the new and people are tied and the thing is zach polanski i don't think he's converting

00:13:15.760 new people i think he's just gathering the faithful to be honest with you i think farage is doing the

00:13:19.940 same i don't think he's converting new people to his cause because i mean nadir farage is one of the

00:13:26.180 most famous politicians in britain like 99.9 percent of people know who he is and they either like him

00:13:30.860 or don't like him but that's still millions of people who do like him these gathering together

00:13:35.720 so again all change and actually this is pretty astounding really and again if i were in charge of

00:13:44.000 labor and the conservatives i'd be like right guys whatever we're doing right we've got to do the

00:13:49.120 you would be thinking of a pivot about now would you i would we'll get to uh whether they're going

00:13:54.540 to pivot in a minute um because it is it is quite remarkable to stats for lefties uh shown here that

00:14:03.920 the greens are doing better uh under zach polanski but again it's not that much considering the amount

00:14:10.080 we get to hear from zach polanski considering the amount that he's on tv considering uh the constant

00:14:18.920 upswell from his online activist to only be at 13 of the polls well he's been fully endorsed by the

00:14:25.880 bbc yeah and that's only worth four and a half percent it's not yeah what's interesting is that

00:14:32.700 zach polanski is just representing the extremity of the current regime right so they all want more

00:14:40.320 immigration they all want more migrants they want more money for the nhs they want more benefits they

00:14:45.440 want more of what there's been promised and zach polanski he actually says it exactly he's just

00:14:50.720 saying no i'm going to take this to the nth degree and i'm just going to literally steal money from

00:14:55.360 wealthy people in order to make it happen the labor party and the conservative party of course are

00:15:00.320 connected to reality and they're like okay but if you do this you will have problems you know

00:15:05.740 they still do it when they're in power rachel reeves they speak sensibly exactly it's not it's not even

00:15:11.560 just that they speak sensibly i mean rachel reeves's budgets umming and ahhing about where can i squeeze

00:15:16.220 from it's not that she's not wanting to do the same thing that zach polanski is doing it's she's like

00:15:22.200 look i don't want to break the system as i do this you know of course she she's at least aware that

00:15:28.240 there is a reality and it exists actions have consequences zach polanski is not aware of reality

00:15:33.700 at all no because he's just a london assembly member like he he grills or grills sadiq khan

00:15:39.740 uh i don't imagine he does he probably says sadiq why haven't you put net zero into

00:15:44.420 operation and sadiq's like well i'm doing my best mate all right i'm trying to get there

00:15:48.700 uh so he's just pushing at an open door and the best that they can get is about 13 of the polls

00:15:54.400 there are other polls where they're higher but this is on average of course average of polls

00:15:58.360 for august to december which is well i'm good so i thought we'd look at like the latest you gov poll

00:16:03.860 which is interesting but not as spectacular as it could be from the perspective of reform

00:16:09.920 you gov is a self-selected broad-scale online polling network my wife signed up to it she'll

00:16:18.220 occasionally get polls but she never gets polls asking her which party she's voting for so you gov

00:16:23.800 you gov is interesting because they basically build a profile on everybody on their service

00:16:28.260 and then they decide who they're going to send the next poll to and because they've got a profile on

00:16:34.140 you they can basically predict exactly how you're going to answer the question which is why their

00:16:40.200 poll is always suspicious because if they they can engineer any result they want to they can but

00:16:46.120 another another thing to remember is that you gov's polling is not actually uh doesn't have a bad

00:16:51.380 history with no so it's actually you would hope they're doing it genuinely i'm just simply saying

00:16:57.480 whenever they want to they can engineer any result they want and and there there have certainly

00:17:01.860 been examples where they've done this covid covid uh boat migrants um various other things you know

00:17:07.380 but when it comes to like the westminster voting intention they're generally they're actually more

00:17:12.300 accurate than not so uh 28 for reform don't go wrong that's comfortably ahead of labor which is

00:17:18.140 down to 18 that's not the lowest we've seen the poll the previous video we covered is 14 that was

00:17:24.100 an outlier poll uh but that's still if i hear the labor party terrifying uh 18 though is atrocious

00:17:30.440 because you've got the greens just behind at 17 which is of course above the average but i think

00:17:35.740 what we're covering is the indicative trend and direction of travel so nevertheless given given that

00:17:41.320 we're looking at a political earth shake and a complete change of power in this country from from the

00:17:47.040 the old guard to the new this is not showing me a genuine breakthrough this is just showing me

00:17:52.820 fracture yes and this is one of the i think the there are a lot of people who are saying has

00:18:01.120 nigel forage peaked early because if we go back a couple of months for us was about 33 34 percent in

00:18:07.160 the polls uh and now they're down to like 28 29 occasionally 30 uh as you can see this is plus

00:18:13.640 one from their previous polling so this is a fairly like level um bent that they've arrived on and this

00:18:22.440 like you say it's actually kind of all to play for at the moment right so okay labor had this phrase

00:18:29.480 because you know the the the tories really crapped out a bit late in their reign it was i mean you could

00:18:35.140 really tell things were going wrong after the start of rishi sunak's reign when when when you started

00:18:40.980 to really see those immigration numbers i mean i honestly i thought during the theresa may years it

00:18:45.360 was very oh it dipped then as well but they had an ups i mean bear in mind boys did get a big majority

00:18:50.840 whatever it was an 80 seat majority so so they did come back from it and then he blew it of course

00:18:54.540 but labor had this phrase they used internally which was carrying a ming vase across an ice skate rink

00:19:00.120 yeah and but they only had to carry it for about a year whereas nigel farage i mean from day one

00:19:07.140 labor blew it yeah so he's carrying this ming vase across an ice skating rink for four years

00:19:12.140 yeah and he's got to not drop it and what's very strange about reform is the polling is all in

00:19:19.860 right people are worried about immigration and then the economy and then you know and that's

00:19:24.960 significantly above other stereotypical political problems so he messages his wokeness

00:19:31.060 so yeah boat migrant indefinitely to remain guys our new candidate like is yeah it i mean i assume

00:19:41.980 that farage is keeping his powder drive close to the election right the the most optimistic because

00:19:47.160 i mean zia yusuf has actually been doing quite a good job on question time he's been on a couple of

00:19:51.260 times recently and he's actually been quite nativist which okay fair enough you know good good on him

00:19:57.180 i'm i'm willing to you know accept when the good is the good and farage himself has been relatively

00:20:03.980 tepid and just kind of coasting on this i'm always reluctant to give people credit for being secretly

00:20:10.460 based yeah me too me too but i've never seen it but if you were thinking right okay we are

00:20:18.040 four years or nearly three and a half years whatever it is out from an election

00:20:23.240 i don't want to go hard now because i do know that in three years time people are still going to be

00:20:30.460 very bothered by the number of foreigners in the country the economy's still going to be shit

00:20:34.220 um so you could you could justify taking a fairly soft tack on almost any issue and then when you're

00:20:43.900 a couple of months out from the election pivot hard into anti-improgrant sentiment pivot hard into

00:20:50.320 lowering taxes pivot hard into state cuts yes you know you and and that i think could push you over

00:20:58.180 the edge and i think that then you've got to defend your territory for a lot less time exactly

00:21:03.280 don't know whether he's going to do that but i can see the logic of it i mean that's what i would

00:21:08.060 be doing if i were in his position yeah right and nigel's not an idiot he's not a noob he's been

00:21:13.880 doing this for a long time so i'm sure that he has years of experience that he is employing of this

00:21:19.160 and even then to be 10 points ahead of the current government yes embarrassing from yeah it's not it's

00:21:26.460 not a weak position no it's not a weak position and i can see why if you're a reform internal stretch

00:21:31.700 strategist yes you're looking at this and saying well we don't need to panic or do anything you're

00:21:36.420 you're more worried about dropping that ming vase because you're not getting to the other side of

00:21:40.100 that ice rink any sooner than when labor decide to call the election exactly or when they force to

00:21:44.940 which is probably going to be four years exactly and what you'll be able to do as the election

00:21:49.260 approaches being ahead in the polls is command the news cycle and you would think okay well

00:21:54.400 we'll save the because and we know that nigel farage is prepared to go out on a limb on these things

00:22:00.500 remember him in front of the um the the winding trail of men oh yeah coming across and being like

00:22:06.000 look at this this is what's coming for britain he is prepared to go out on a limb on that

00:22:09.500 um and so maybe that was in an election cycle though backing your theory exactly that was an election

00:22:15.240 cycle uh so maybe he is keeping his powder dry but anyway going going to the rest of them

00:22:20.180 uh labor and greens neck and neck 18 and 17 with the conservatives on 17 like that's crazy

00:22:28.920 the conservatives terrible the fact that the conservatives are polling the same as the green

00:22:34.400 party if you're a member of the conservatives like you're not winning another election no they're

00:22:40.280 they're done there are three other parties ahead of you i mean at the moment they are the official

00:22:44.960 opposition and everybody remembers them as being in government most of the time for the last century

00:22:49.140 yeah well last three centuries actually but um after this they're going to be they're not even

00:22:55.300 going to be in the number three spot they're going to be up in the back benches off to the right in

00:22:59.600 that top bit where reform have to sit now above 40 50 mp but with no momentum they'll be in the

00:23:05.100 position of the lib dems well um lib dems are in the number three spot aren't they so so they they

00:23:10.700 actually get that front bit of that second bench and they get to ask a guarantee question at pmqs they

00:23:15.500 won't even have that that's true that's true actually uh but it's going to have the same sort of um

00:23:20.100 political salience as the lib dems yeah okay yeah there is a rump of these people but they're

00:23:25.500 never going to form a government they're going to be more like the austral unionists were yeah yeah

00:23:29.280 yeah yeah yeah um and so yeah like the fact that the lib dems are on 14 uh is again this this these

00:23:37.460 four parties are basically all like i don't know competing for runner-up the lib dems are like the

00:23:45.080 nuclear war uh cockroach you know it doesn't matter what you do to them they're just always they're

00:23:50.080 between 11 and 18 forever the lib dem vote is deceptive because it's highly concentrated

00:23:57.080 in certain constituencies so the lib dems could end up with between something like 70 to 80 seats

00:24:02.560 and that could actually put them as the second party in the country uh which i mean we've talked

00:24:09.940 about in the previous episodes of this so who knows but the point is this this is a fractured

00:24:14.500 landscape and only reform have any kind of momentum behind them and the other two parties

00:24:19.840 the labor and conservatives should really be cacking their pants like this is a miscarriage

00:24:25.960 on their part to get to this point is just crazy frankly and of course uh

00:24:33.840 it couldn't get any worse actually it just it just can't get any worse so uh 72 percent of brits

00:24:41.600 seeing starmer unfavorably giving them a net popularity of minus 54 uh rachel reeves of course

00:24:48.020 has also set a record which is 71 seeing her unfavorably these are the most unfavorable

00:24:55.000 uh people in any administration that britain has had since records began

00:24:59.360 so the thing is he he's been breaking that this particular record consistently for

00:25:04.380 months about a year now yeah well yeah yeah yeah for literally about a year um so it just couldn't

00:25:11.400 it couldn't really get any worse i mean i would really like to know who that 28 percent who i'm not

00:25:16.140 sure are and i can i can honestly only assume they're being their state employees nhs union

00:25:21.080 few teachers yeah probably it yeah zia you so shared this and this uh tells you everything you need to

00:25:27.200 know uh your money's going down by the way rachel reeves's budget if you're on um sort of you know

00:25:32.120 average wages in this country you're losing about a thousand six hundred pounds a year was it

00:25:35.280 something like that um well if you're on social spending uh social benefits uh well you're doing

00:25:40.720 great especially if you keep popping out kids if you're a public sector worker uh what's that's ahead

00:25:46.200 of inflation isn't it um yeah i mean she was extremely generous to people on welfare um and

00:25:51.820 and well you can see you can see it in the reactions on social media afterwards the only people

00:25:54.820 crowing about it the people who saying look i've got six mixed race kids um thank you so much

00:26:01.020 rachel reeves everybody else was like i mean and there's this fantastic scene in in parliament

00:26:04.900 recently where um starmer was was basically saying yeah i know a load of farmers are going

00:26:09.660 to commit suicide oh we'll get to that right it's just mad yeah but so what what's inflation at the

00:26:16.720 moment because i can't remember off the top i'll look it up yeah but the the public sector pay i reckon

00:26:22.140 that's moving in line with uh inflation of course private sector pay is only 1.6 so it's like okay great

00:26:27.500 that's absolutely brilliant we can see who labor is serving the unemployed and the state employed

00:26:33.500 this is a an economic suicide pact that they have decided no we are going to tank the economy

00:26:40.580 tank the country and you can't do anything about us until 2029 yeah so brilliant thank you labor uh

00:26:47.580 and i can only assume that that those you know that 10 percent there that those the the social

00:26:54.020 benefit spending the public sector pay increases uh that is the 28 of people who are benefiting from

00:27:00.440 this so it's about 3.6 apparently at the moment so the public sector pay is ahead of yes private

00:27:05.560 sector pay well behind and benefits are basically doubling up incredible yeah incredible so you can

00:27:11.700 see who they're serving through their budgets right uh and so the the question is and you raised

00:27:19.220 this on twitter the other day are labor going to pivot and i thought oh yeah good point because

00:27:24.040 they must realize at this point that everyone hates them they're not going to make any money the

00:27:29.820 economy shrank by 0.1 percent in the last quarter didn't it right so this is not weirdly this is not

00:27:35.900 a recipe for prosperity no right if only we had a school of economics that could get on this explain

00:27:42.060 why well i think i think i pointed out two options one one is that they they look at their 90

00:27:48.020 grand a year job and they think to themselves because normally the consistent theme in all the

00:27:53.660 politics of all time in every country is getting re-elected yes because it is the prerequisite for

00:27:59.700 power which these people crave yes as well as the 90 grand a year salary that all these people are

00:28:04.540 getting which i doubt they're going to get when they go back to being a trade union rep or a minor

00:28:08.720 journalist or whatever it'll teach you whatever it is these people did before becoming labor mps

00:28:12.500 are they going to want to hang on to it or are they going to realize it's so utterly hopeless

00:28:17.960 they're going to do every spiteful socialist policy that they've ever wanted to do and they're just

00:28:24.940 going to go for it well we actually know the artist option too yes yes uh with the labor party

00:28:29.920 because and i've been saying this for a while now uh i think this is the last labor government

00:28:34.160 we're ever going to see uh i don't i don't think i mean you'd have to have an incredible leader

00:28:39.380 come around after kirstama to cleanse the public yeah i mean i i remember after the 1997 election

00:28:46.540 people were asking okay this is going to be the the last um conservative government but but i mean

00:28:52.040 the conservatives they they were still there they still had like 100 mp i think 134 something

00:28:56.920 like that they didn't get thrashed nearly that badly no they were still the official opposition

00:29:00.200 they were still there and there's still no viable alternative and what we what we're looking at

00:29:03.560 on that as well they weren't hated no in the same way that labor they were just unloved yeah yeah

00:29:08.680 yeah yeah yeah yeah sorry carry on and um yeah you know what we're going to say is is they still

00:29:13.820 had presence but what we're looking at here is the conservative and labor party they're not going

00:29:18.060 to be the official opposition they might one of them if they're lucky might get the the third spot

00:29:23.660 where the lib dem sit where they get to ask one question at pmqs because the lib dems have vacated it upwards

00:29:29.560 yes yes they might not even get that you you might have both of these you might have labor and the

00:29:34.860 conservatives under the greens yeah just sat on that back row yeah all intermixed because they

00:29:41.920 don't have their own seats anymore i do love zero seats i do love it so yeah coming back from being

00:29:49.400 slightly unloved because a charismatic tony bear pops up but you're still the official opposite is a world

00:29:54.660 of difference from just being shunted out of the way entirely yeah and again genuine hatred and it's

00:30:01.040 it's honestly because the labor party i don't think they understand who they represent anymore

00:30:05.680 so the girl guides uh banned boys from joining so they banned boys from joining they yeah yeah because

00:30:15.640 the supreme court founded in 2009 uh by labor uh had to come out and be like well i mean

00:30:24.280 actually boys have winkies and girls have foo foos and and everyone in labor was like well there we go

00:30:32.960 then yeah settled and keir starmer came out and said right okay i was wrong some women do not have

00:30:37.960 penises it has been officially ruled by mistake to make yeah officially ruled by the supreme court the

00:30:44.320 the word has come down from the managerial is such an autonomous robot it's mad yes all all he can

00:30:53.440 all he can process is rules is it in the rules is it not in the rules it's entire world view exactly the

00:31:00.340 the the woke chip was taken out the plug in you know normal chip was put back in and keir starmer went

00:31:06.940 boop boop beep okay yeah women have vaginas men have penises and so a bunch of institutions have

00:31:12.500 uh had to realign themselves based on this now um and this is an interesting way of determining

00:31:18.580 what is part of the power structures right because there are a bunch of things that have changed but

00:31:23.500 this is lisa nandy talking about the girl guide trans ban uh and she has said as you can see well

00:31:30.020 the supreme court ruling has set a new standard around the definition of what is a woman is it a new

00:31:33.520 standard though is it it goes back to the bible for christ's sake you know the garden of eden

00:31:39.580 it's like during the middle ages when when their version of science was rediscovering what the

00:31:44.920 romans knew yes yes so we're going to have to find new ways to include people

00:31:49.800 yes the rules say no so we're just going to have to figure out a new rule in order to get around the

00:31:56.580 old rule why is it that we have we are so committed labor to having boys in the girls guy girl guides

00:32:03.500 like it's okay for only to be girls in the girl guides it's okay for only be boys in the scouts

00:32:09.140 it'd be really interesting to sit down one of these labor mps and just ask them and don't let

00:32:12.920 them prevaricate don't go sideways with their platitudes but why yeah what what why can't you

00:32:18.440 just accept that there are things for boys and things for girls yes anyway so the as you can see

00:32:23.600 she's not not having this so this isn't exactly a pivot this is no jk rowling is a demon and we are

00:32:29.840 going to find a way to make sure that women don't have their own spaces no matter where they are no

00:32:34.060 matter what age they are even if the highest court in the land has said so we're still going to work

00:32:39.740 on it it's like okay that's mad right you're mad that's not a pivot and then you had as you presaged

00:32:46.260 uh starmer and the farmers uh just insane just this is just insane so as you can see from no farmers

00:32:52.840 no food the labor government has committed 536 million pounds in aid for overseas agriculture projects

00:32:58.560 and of course is going for a half billion inheritance tax grab against family farmers

00:33:03.180 i did not know that didn't you we covered on the podcast a little while ago oh i must have missed

00:33:07.140 that one it's just mad just mad mad mad and it's just insane what are you doing we're gonna have

00:33:13.340 our farmers commit suicide so that we can send money to what algerian farmers yeah like farmers overseas

00:33:21.160 foreign farmers in other countries okay i i just have no idea why they think that this is a good

00:33:29.380 idea like what the what i mean i guess the end goal is to make sure we don't do farming in britain we do

00:33:34.240 farming well we don't do farming foreigners do farming elsewhere make us dependent on them i mean what

00:33:38.440 else what else apart from socialist spite and kill the kulaks yeah i i wouldn't know where to begin

00:33:45.800 to construct a cogent reason for this no it genuinely is difficult to understand yeah what

00:33:52.240 the pressure that's making him do this is i i don't know what to say and it's so it's so blatant it's

00:33:59.300 like yeah right we're gonna get 500 million out of our farmers great well we can put 500 million

00:34:03.440 that that can just go straight to yeah it's just like okay it's like when they said oh we need to

00:34:08.580 raise 22 billion why um we're gonna spend 20 billion in carbon capture it's like but you don't have to do

00:34:15.540 this you don't have to raise our taxes to piss it away elsewhere and and what was the obr came out

00:34:21.140 and like there isn't a black hole what are you talking about yes it's like yeah no there's not

00:34:24.200 we just really want to siphon your money away to foreigners and stupid boondoggles yeah okay great

00:34:29.740 that's that's just that's just wonderful i'm stunned by this i didn't know it's absolutely baffling and

00:34:34.520 it's just okay you absolute traitors right this is just genuine treachery uh and so this they're on a

00:34:42.520 labour select committee earlier about this and they couldn't believe it they just couldn't

00:34:47.940 believe it watch this it's just genuinely preposterous the consequence of the decisions

00:34:53.300 that we've taken but i can assure you um as you would expect the president of the nfu has raised

00:34:59.540 this issue issue with me uh on more than one occasion not just the president of the nfu well i

00:35:04.620 appreciate that you've heard it from cat smith you've heard it from my select committee you've heard

00:35:09.060 it from the welsh affairs select committee you've heard it from the northern ireland affairs committee

00:35:13.780 you don't these are all select committees incidentally that have majorities from the

00:35:19.260 labour party and they have all produced unanimous reports calling for this to be paused and rethought

00:35:25.760 you don't have to listen to me you don't even have to listen to the farmers out there you don't

00:35:30.340 have to listen to the president of the nfu but why do you not listen to your own party colleagues

00:35:35.060 i do listen to party colleagues all the time and then do what you're going to do anyway

00:35:39.800 very much mr carmichael

00:35:42.200 like this is just incredible isn't it it's just he's just a complete he is a robot he's complete

00:35:50.480 blank utterly implacable i i'm not bothered that everyone all of these committees that labour chairs

00:35:58.440 and has the majority on they don't care well i don't care what our own party thinks of this

00:36:04.140 policy i don't care that people i mean another one this is a longer one so i'm not going to play

00:36:09.340 this one but uh because i can't remember the time stamp offhand but it's just they're like look

00:36:15.560 some of the farmers are becoming suicidal because you're going to steal their farms through inheritance

00:36:22.060 tax and kirsten was like okay i accept that but i'm going to carry on with the inheritance tax anyway

00:36:26.820 i mean there's that story that came out of what he did at his interview in which he he mentioned that

00:36:32.400 you know he doesn't have any favorite films he doesn't have any favorite books and he doesn't

00:36:35.720 dream doesn't enjoy poetry yeah and and and i i heard that as i thought who doesn't dream

00:36:40.580 everybody dreams but i mean when you see him like this you can you can start to accept that

00:36:46.360 no he actually is just a complete and utter void of a human being

00:36:51.480 yeah he he's such a man of the system that it doesn't matter like they're all saying to him

00:36:56.020 they're screaming i mean like i noticed that the guy was like yeah i keep saying to you

00:36:59.640 that this is the case people keep raising this with you your own committees are raising this with you

00:37:04.000 the farmers are going to kill themselves and kirsten i was like well that's that's fine because

00:37:08.820 we're going to carry on anyway and it's because is in our rules it's it is even the rules like

00:37:14.780 what's the pressure coming from this like it's not like if it was about saving money i'd understand

00:37:20.860 it but it's not about saving money it's about sending this money somewhere else it's just about

00:37:25.600 sucking it into the state so it can be blown out the other end yeah to somewhere else it's about

00:37:30.600 immiserating the country and so it's and and he's just like james points out he's just heartless

00:37:37.840 utterly like lizard-like regarding this and so this is pure banality of evil this is

00:37:44.320 an utter banality completely this so many lives are going to be ruined by this let alone the

00:37:50.340 economy let alone the food supply let alone all of these other genuine things that we rely on the

00:37:55.760 farmers for but it's lives are going to be ruined by this you know generations are going to be severed

00:38:00.980 by this and he just doesn't care people have been working the land for 800 years if not more

00:38:06.440 unbroken family lines since the since the anglo-saxon settlements ended because some robot turned up

00:38:12.820 yeah because bureaucrat bureaucracy requires it and and you think we're okay so what controls

00:38:21.680 kia stana because they are as low as they've ever been in the polls they're as unpopular as they have

00:38:27.180 ever been and if they continue on this course it looks like they're going to lose something like 400

00:38:32.200 seats at the next election so dead parliament walking and that will probably be the effective

00:38:39.220 end of the labor party i can't see how they could ever win another election or why like the the

00:38:44.700 alternatives have already sprung up why would you not just vote for the greens if you're some lefty

00:38:50.160 type i mean if you don't know anything about economics and you don't know how money works and

00:38:54.420 and you're a progressive zach palancy has charisma this guy has he's just a black hole of charisma well

00:39:00.880 let's talk about charisma right so mike tap as you retweeted the other day yeah pointed out look we must

00:39:06.920 address any links between ethnicity religion and culture and child rape we won't turn away from

00:39:11.480 this victims comes first and you thought what is that does this mark a labor turning point

00:39:16.680 not really actually and and the reason is is i mean you listen to this statement and you think oh

00:39:24.380 there's hints are based in this we've had this but from the labor party a number of times before

00:39:29.520 remember kia starmer's island of stranger speech where basically he copied out enoch powell's speech and

00:39:34.920 then just changed some of the headings and and read it out again um and and again you thought oh

00:39:40.200 well if they if they learned something and and then they get pushed back and then they just unwind it

00:39:45.420 all and they've done this several times they've tepidly they've they've gone into they've gone into a

00:39:50.380 um uh what do you call them a focus group and they've listened because they're like oh we're going

00:39:55.000 to lose our job so let's go into a focus group and find out and they they write it all down and they

00:39:59.120 come to the okay we need to do this thing it's really clear we need to do this thing so they

00:40:03.120 tepidly do it and they get pushed back from their back benches and then they just tear it all up and

00:40:08.460 not just their back benches they get pushed back from the people snapping at their heels right so as

00:40:16.300 you can see zach polanski it's been nearly 24 hours and kia starmer has not yet condemned the awful

00:40:20.180 comments by my mic tap because zach polanski just embodies the most radical view of the left that has

00:40:26.600 been puppeteering the labor and the conservatives and the lib dems for years and he's just distilled this

00:40:31.540 into its essence so everything foreign good everything domestic bad fantasy economics good

00:40:38.220 actual real world economics bad i will sell you like some sort of carnival showman the fiction

00:40:44.600 and you can vote for me and trust me this will be great now obviously you know four-fifths of the

00:40:51.900 electorate are like no that's fucking stupid obviously i'm not gonna do that but that's not what zach

00:40:56.540 polanski is doing he's he's basically creating a cul-de-sac for the left in britain which is

00:41:00.820 actually great that's actually good i wonder if this is another phenomena of social media because

00:41:05.960 for for most of my life and and for anyone older you know the vast majority of theirs british politics

00:41:10.620 has been yes no and i don't know you know tory labor and liberal democrats and and there was basically

00:41:15.560 no room for anybody else nothing else could emerge but in the era of social media if somebody like

00:41:20.640 zach polanski pops up and takes over a party that everybody forgot about and just has a bit of

00:41:25.600 charisma a bit of bbc backing um you know he i mean he's an influence a politician is essentially

00:41:31.920 what it is that's completely correct and you're right he can get somewhere but i like i've said

00:41:36.820 before i think the natural constituency for radical replacement ism and insane communism is actually

00:41:44.500 a bit lower than maybe zach polanski expects it to be and i don't think they're ever going to form

00:41:50.040 majority on the platform they've got uh which is good news um but he is open to a deal with labor

00:41:57.040 to keep out nigel frage as long as kia starmer is ousted as the leader yeah that's interesting isn't

00:42:03.480 it like will the labor party go like kia we are going to get crushed i mean i think what happened is

00:42:10.640 is the morning after the election kia starmer will come out and resign that's what yeah yeah that's

00:42:17.040 what i mean especially after the drubbing that they're gonna get i mean he'll probably lose a

00:42:20.180 seat yeah well there is that yes he's probably gonna lose that you know he he will walk out of

00:42:25.780 downing street and you know while he's being yeah i mean he's gonna have to move his luggage out

00:42:30.440 presumably yeah so he's gonna need to go back for the afternoon but yeah he will resign immediately

00:42:34.980 and then then what's going to happen i suppose i suppose the labor party are going to decide between

00:42:39.740 the six of them which one is going to be leader and then they can do a deal with zach polanski

00:42:44.400 it's likely that there i mean i mean mind you why why wouldn't zach why wouldn't zach polanski if

00:42:52.360 he gets if he if labor get less than 20 seats why would he do a deal with them yeah why wouldn't he

00:42:57.240 just say um no defect it's me join join the green party and instantly get an extra 20 seats well this

00:43:03.680 is the point isn't it as nigel farage on the right has been sucking up the tories zach polanski i mean

00:43:09.360 five green uh councillors defect uh good labor councillors defected today i've got to put it in

00:43:14.380 the dark uh but five labor councillors defected to the greens today and so you can see that this

00:43:18.220 sucking out of the center that the vitality and the blood of the center um is going to leave them

00:43:23.760 with the conservatives probably on about 40 seats labor on about half a dozen seats especially if it

00:43:28.360 plays out that the greens get the opposition and the and and lib dems of the number three party

00:43:35.240 that nice little front spot on the side and then the tories and labor at the back let's say there's

00:43:39.960 20 labor mps back there or 25 whatever it is it if they defect they get to go straight back to a

00:43:46.260 proper seat and that's going to have a big ego effect for them i can well see them just just the

00:43:51.540 whole labor party just folding within two weeks of the election exactly who wants to hang around with

00:43:56.040 the losers yeah it's like yeah well we're labor and peace it's like yeah what's that mean you know

00:44:00.440 that we're we're nobodies and the energy again like with the tories maybe maybe with the tories

00:44:07.400 the the tories got a more sense of sort of loyalty to the conservative parties and institution

00:44:11.080 but um but even then they're going to be yesterday's men and no one's going to care

00:44:18.500 so if you want to get back into the sort of driving seat of politics well you're going to have to

00:44:23.100 essentially defect to reform or the greens because otherwise you'll never be heard from again

00:44:28.160 if you defect to the greens you get to go on question time exactly exactly and so you've you've

00:44:34.200 got like i said the the sort of sucking out of the center the blood of the center into the right and the

00:44:38.800 left uh finalizing the collapse of the center and all you've got i mean this the fact that it's

00:44:45.760 zach polanski basically calling the shots with labor it's very similar to nigel farage or rupert

00:44:50.080 lowe calling the shots with the tories it's like look we you know we're prepared to like take you over

00:44:54.780 if you just bend the knee and because you're following us anyway if you watch question if you

00:45:00.660 watch um prime minister's questions these days it's it's the labor leader talking to the conservative

00:45:05.840 leader and both of them are talking about nigel farage yes and zach polanski comes up every now and

00:45:10.680 again yeah and zach polanski so it's it you know exactly you can see that the the the center is

00:45:15.620 following the lead of the extremes and why would i vote for the second rank version yeah if i wanted

00:45:22.580 zach polanski i could just vote for zach polanski i don't have to vote for this is like going out and

00:45:27.220 buying an iphone 3 today yeah you just wouldn't do it would you exactly i could just buy the the

00:45:31.940 authentic thing uh so i just think this is a fascinating uh continuum of how we are watching

00:45:40.200 the center just withering losing its own direction this it can't make an argument for itself they they

00:45:46.280 only make arguments that strengthen nigel farage and zach polanski and this is what they that zach

00:45:51.400 polanski has been complaining about the labor party about for the past couple of months they

00:45:55.760 keep doing things that support reform like we we're going to lower immigration we're going to stop the

00:46:00.120 boats we're going to try to like increase prosperity or something like that like all of these things that

00:46:05.180 they are accusing labor of just bolstering reform by giving reforms talking points legitimacy and it's

00:46:12.120 like yeah because they they are legitimate but he is not wrong but what this means is well why would i go

00:46:17.360 to you who will backtrack on the island of strangers or anything like this or i could go to farage who

00:46:22.720 in my mind in the media portrayal of farage is a raging right-wing racist and again all i mean this

00:46:29.700 all like the funny thing about that poll earlier is you know um where was it yeah uh there we uh no

00:46:37.460 i had the poll there we are right this is after they spent the last two weeks calling nigel farage a

00:46:42.960 nazi right oh yes yes it was back up one then i guess we'd have 20 27 go back up to 28 why because

00:46:49.900 they've been calling nigel farage a nazi i mean and essentially the british public are being asked to

00:46:55.240 choose between one heavy goods vehicle or the other heavy goods vehicle or the voxel cortina that's got

00:47:00.440 stuck in the middle and has nowhere to go yeah they can't go left and they can't go right without

00:47:04.820 getting crushed yes and so despite all of this the center's dying you can't make an argument for

00:47:11.100 itself and the extremes are leading them by the nose and there doesn't seem to be any way out

00:47:17.060 it just looks like it's continually well there's no way out but they're willing to

00:47:21.500 embrace no good times interesting times honestly i'm looking forward to the next election yes zero seats

00:47:29.340 for everyone oh the next election stream is going to be enormous fun i might break out the green

00:47:34.340 screen again yeah yeah no we should yes definitely should it's going to be an absolute bang because

00:47:38.380 oh it's going to be such a bloodbath anyway thanks for joining us folks we'll see you in the next one of

00:47:41.740 these

The Podcast of the Lotus Eaters - December 17, 2025

Will Labour Pivot？

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