00:13:14.420Arkansas has closed now, and Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota,
00:13:21.020Nebraska, New Mexico, Nevada, North Dakota, the western part of the state, South Dakota,
00:13:25.700all of the state now, Texas, Wisconsin, and Wyoming have all closed their polling down.
00:13:31.880Yet to come at 9 o'clock Central tonight will be Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, and then California, Idaho, Oregon, Washington, and finally tonight at 11 o'clock Central Time, Alaska and Hawaii.
00:13:48.980So that's where we're sitting at right now with the U.S. election.
00:21:06.540Elections B.C. today saying there were several problems in the election count,
00:21:11.200one of which directly impacts the 27-vote victory the NDP had in Surrey-Guilford
00:21:17.120that allowed them to claim their majority government victory by one seat.
00:21:21.080Let me walk you through this confusing situation here.
00:21:23.560The first problem is what election officials today said is the discovery of a ballot box
00:21:27.920in the riding of Prince George McKenzie that was never counted.
00:21:31.240There's 861 votes in it that weren't counted.
00:21:34.040Elections BC's ordered a judicial recount there.
00:21:36.820The margin of victory in this riding for the Conservatives was more than 5,000 votes.
00:21:40.200So while this is troubling, it's not going to change the outcome.
00:21:43.080The second is Suri Guilford and news today of 14 missing votes in that riding, which has shrunk the NDP lead from 27 to 21 upon counting.
00:21:54.000The entire NDP government hangs on that riding with a judicial recount set for Thursday and Friday of this week and missing votes in 69 other ridings today to centered around this new ability to vote anywhere out of your district and get your vote counted.
00:22:09.060This election, Elections B.C. saying there were six ridings that made mistakes and tabulator tapes that have affected 0.5 percent of the vote in those other ridings.
00:22:18.080So all of this super confusing and worrying, given both the close election and the fact that the NDP's majority hangs in the balance.
00:22:25.840The integrity of electoral systems are under intact in places like the United States, as you saw in Corey's story and elsewhere.
00:22:32.740So this does not help inspire confidence in Elections B.C.
00:22:36.600Chief Electoral Officer Anton Bogman today not responding to interview requests.
00:22:42.520The parties themselves trying to navigate this very carefully.
00:22:45.560The NDP saying they're glad there are some safeguards to catch these things.
00:22:48.900Conservative leader John Rustad demanding an independent review of elections B.C.
00:22:52.580saying this is an unprecedented failure by the elections agency that's supposed to ensure fair elections.
00:22:59.100And he wants to take a look at it, saying he doesn't necessarily dispute the results.
00:23:04.480But this undermines, Stacey, the public confidence in our election system.
00:26:12.060Georgia, six electoral votes, Michigan, 15 electoral votes, Wisconsin, 10 electoral votes, and of course the big boy, Pennsylvania with 19 electoral votes.
00:26:25.040What does that mean? Well, we have 93 electoral votes we've been keeping in this toss-up category this entire time.
00:26:32.520And this is where the decision and the presidential election gets made. Let's go through them.
00:26:37.240We're going to start off with Georgia. Now, Georgia, it was very, very close.
00:26:41.000If you remember, you might remember this from 2020. Very, very close.
00:26:44.980It is there's a lot going on in Georgia. Any of these states could go either way.
00:26:50.440But I've got a gun to my head here. It's time to make last minute predictions.
00:26:54.800Let's see how this goes. We're going to give Georgia and the 16 electoral votes over to Donald Trump.
00:26:59.040He's got a slight but consistent polling lead there.
00:27:03.060The fundamentals of the state, I still think, lean a little bit red.
00:27:07.460You saw a I went through the 2022 House vote there favors Republicans.
00:27:28.480We take those and we give them to Donald Trump.
00:27:31.500Trump wins North Carolina with 16. Again, same situation roughly as Georgia. It's a very close
00:27:40.320state. It could go either way. If these two went opposite directions, I wouldn't be shocked. But
00:27:47.080I think Donald Trump, again, with a small but persistent lead in the polls, holds on to North
00:27:52.640Carolina in very, very close margin. Maybe if there's a polling difference between these,
00:27:58.160If there's anything you can suss out of all these seven swing states, probably the clearest thing we've seen is Arizona going to Donald Trump.
00:28:20.440And, you know, look, it's still a traditional red state in 2020.
00:28:25.540You think about really kind of the worst case case situation for a Republican running for office in Arizona with, you know, obviously COVID going on and all that other stuff.
00:28:41.080This is one of these states I went back and forth on multiple times.
00:28:44.640My initial thought on this was, look, Donald Trump before when Biden was running, Trump's outlier polling.
00:28:52.260Like if you were to look at all the swing states and say which one looks better for Donald Trump than you would see in any other state, I would have gone with Nevada.
00:28:59.640When he when Biden was in there, he was his polling was incredible in Nevada.
00:29:06.140I mean, it's kind of like one of the most famous proposals of this campaign.
00:29:09.560You think in Nevada, I'm convincing myself the other way again.
00:29:13.580You think in Nevada it probably goes and maybe moves enough people to go to Donald Trump.
00:29:17.620So the Senate race is still quirky there, and I'm nervous about it on the Republican side.
00:29:23.600I went back and forth on this like 10 times, I'll be honest with you.
00:29:26.680And I wound up going with Kamala Harris winning Nevada with six electoral votes.
00:29:33.040OK, I know everyone loves that. They love when I pick Kamala Harris on these states.1.00
00:29:36.600OK, next up, Michigan, Michigan, 15 electoral votes, obviously big blue wall state.
00:29:41.660We're getting down to the nitty gritty here. A very, very close, close election.
00:29:46.340Michigan has been a state where, you know, one of the things that makes me nervous about Michigan is there have been a decent amount of election law changes leading up to this race,
00:29:56.540obviously by Democrats, a lot of persistent, hardcore push by unions and such in Michigan.
00:30:05.680And I will say another big factor for me in this particular state was the appearance of RFK Jr.
00:30:12.980RFK Jr., obviously a Trump supporter now, could not get his name off the ballot there.
00:30:17.560Some polls are showing him getting like 3% of the vote still, even though he doesn't want to be in the race.
00:30:21.480We're going to give these 15 electoral votes over to Kamala Harris.
00:30:27.380All right, we are down to the nitty-gritty here.1.00
00:35:37.340All of that to say that the official prediction of the Studios America program
00:35:42.160with incredibly limited confidence is Donald Trump, 291 to Kamala Harris, 247.
00:35:52.700Donald Trump becomes the second president in history to have a presidential term,
00:35:58.640take one off, and then get the gig back.
00:36:01.480Donald Trump, your next president of the United States.
00:36:08.700Okay, the results continue to pour in.
00:36:11.320shall we look? Let's look. Let's see what's going on here. Ohio, about an hour ago, was in question
00:36:17.940because Ohio was blue. That's J.D. Vance's home state. He's running for VP, obviously. He is
00:36:23.320currently a senator, the junior senator from Ohio. It's turned red now here on the New York Times map,
00:36:30.040and it looks like Donald Trump will, in fact, run away with it. 59 percent reporting in Ohio,
00:36:36.340Trump leading 54.6% of the vote to Kamala Harris is 44.6% of the vote. Are there any surprising
00:36:44.780states on this map you see? Oh, he was just talking about Pennsylvania. Let's have a look
00:36:49.000at Pennsylvania with only 26% reporting 55.4% of people are voting for Kamala Harris. Only 43.5%
00:36:58.880of people have voted for Donald Trump. But in Wisconsin, look what's going on there. Only 10%,
00:37:06.800still early, still early. Trump is leading in Wisconsin, 53.3% of the vote to Harris's 45.3%
00:37:16.940of the vote. Florida has already been called for Donald Trump, as has Texas. Louisiana, Mississippi,
00:37:23.520Alabama, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, South Carolina, Georgia still in play. Let's see what's
00:37:29.100going on in Georgia. People were worried about Georgia. Trump is comfortably in front there by
00:37:33.200five percentage points. North Carolina, Trump is comfortably in the lead there by four percentage
00:37:39.280points. This one is a bit of a surprise. 56 percent reporting. Now, this could change, guys,
00:37:44.880overnight. Suddenly, there could be a problem with the counting. And we're going to just call
00:37:51.380it for the night, come back and finish tomorrow morning. And then all those guys with the boxes
00:37:54.700come in. This is 56 percent reporting in Virginia. Donald Trump leading barely there. 50.1 percent
00:38:03.660of the vote to 48.2 percent of the vote. So as it stands right now, you got to get to 270. Donald
00:38:10.220Trump is at 178 and Kamala Harris is at 99 with California polls still open there. Oregon, the
00:38:16.880same in Washington. She's going to take all of those. We don't know about Nevada.0.92
00:38:21.380That's a toss up. Arizona looks like it's going to be Trump. New Mexico and Colorado look like they're going to be blue. Utah will be red. Montana, Idaho will be red. Kansas, Missouri and Iowa will be red. And we don't know about Michigan yet. Kamala Harris is in the lead there, but only 12 percent reporting. And in Pennsylvania, we can't like that too much. Not at all.
00:38:47.180some people are wondering how this is going to affect canada not necessarily for trade yeah
00:38:53.300there's people talking about that but politically some are suggesting that the reason justin trudeau
00:39:01.020has stayed as leader of the liberal party hasn't stepped out hasn't called an election hasn't
00:39:05.800prorogued parliament yet is because he because he's been waiting for the u.s election if trump
00:39:11.160wins, Trudeau sees that as an opportunity to run against Trump by painting Pierre Polyev
00:39:18.320as Trump North. Right. I can see that they've been throwing abortion out there a lot lately.
00:39:29.340I'm not sure if you guys are on X, but if you are and you follow any of these liberal MPs and
00:39:33.320cabinet ministers, you'll notice they all sing from the same songbook, depending on the day.
00:39:37.420right? Well, today it's going to be abortion. We're talking about abortion. The next day it's
00:39:41.460going to be, how come Poliev doesn't get clearance to see the names? They all do that. They're going
00:39:47.940to ramp up. I can tell you if Trump wins this election, they're going to ramp up the rhetoric
00:39:52.680about Poliev being Trump North and Trudeau is going to spend the next six months pounding
00:39:58.700that because he's seen the polls and he knows that 65 or 70 percent of Canadians would vote
00:40:04.760for kamala harris over donald trump if we could vote down there which is sad there's a guy called
00:40:10.540he's got a channel on youtube it's called radio reaction and i found this piece interesting so
00:40:16.740i'm going to play it for you guys so i found a another and and the other reason is i just like
00:40:23.020this guy i find him amusing well listen to another one of those little exclusive radio interviews
00:40:28.540this was with wayne long now if you don't know wayne long he's an mp in new brunswick and he
00:40:34.580was one of the people who went up against justin trudeau and uh he was asked what did justin
00:40:41.620trudeau actually say to him when he uh when he got on a one-to-one privately talking to him
00:40:47.780have a listen anyway to answer your question how did he take it he listened he didn't seem
00:40:55.580disengaged you know as you know mps are always kind of looking for the the prime minister's
00:41:01.440actually um he talked to me actually after atlantic august we had a chat about it he
00:41:08.160you know said he respected the fact that i would tell him these things to his face when you know
00:41:15.040many many don't um so you know he took it he took it like a a champ and several hours later he comes
00:41:23.920onto the tv and he does an interview and he says oh i'm staying on what about all the back benches
00:41:29.920what about the oh no not listening to them guys so basically he's not even listening to people who
00:41:36.000are trying to convince him that he's not the right person to lead the liberal party into next
00:41:40.720election don't get me wrong i want him to lead him into the lead them into the next election so that
00:41:45.200he can lose because justin trudeau's just never really lost anything has he really you know he's
00:41:50.880silver spooned all the way up to where he is now he's basically just a millionaire dictator at the
00:41:56.880the moment so yeah and and canada canada doesn't even care about canada doesn't want him most of
00:42:04.700canada looking at the polling doesn't want him the prime minister believes fully that he can turn
00:42:12.280that around and that you know when canadians actually come to focus more on choices between
00:42:22.300Pierre Polyev and obviously Justin Trudeau, the Prime Minister fully believes that people will
00:42:28.940come around and, you know, weigh the two leaders, weigh the program, the style, whatever, and people
00:42:36.540will choose Justin Trudeau. Now, could that happen? Sure it could happen. So the radio interviewer said
00:42:43.340something really, really good here. He says, no, Justin Trudeau has just run out of runway.
00:42:50.300we would have a much better chance of winning because my fear is that a peer poly of government
00:43:00.320will reverse a lot of the programs that we've done and if we continue on this kind of stay calm and
00:43:07.640carry on attitude um you know i can pull quotes it's almost it's almost uncanny you can pull
00:43:16.020quotes from may of 2018 from kathleen winn in mlas in her party and you know people that ran her
00:43:27.960campaign that are almost near imaged of where we are right now what did justin truder actually say
00:43:36.920to him when he uh when he got on a one-to-one privately talking all right so the liberals feel
00:43:44.440and there's many of the same people who are running trudeau right now who are running kathleen
00:43:49.700when she was the premier of ontario they're saying we can do this we can do this we can do this and
00:43:55.860the mps the dissident mps are very concerned that history is going to repeat itself but i think i
00:44:02.580think what i told you guys before is that trudeau is waiting for the results now if kamala harris
00:44:07.920wins the election tonight. He won't have Donald Trump to run against. What could the fallout be
00:44:15.400from this election if it's a close election? Are there going to be riots depending on who wins?
00:44:22.260I guess if either side wins, I mean, if Trump wins, you're going to see Antifa out there.
00:44:28.840If Harris wins, I don't think that there's going to be any kind of disruption. Maybe there will.
00:44:44.400There was an interesting conversation between Tim Pool and Ben Shapiro on a roundtable about what the possible consequences could be as early as tomorrow, maybe Thursday.
00:44:54.860I've been painting this worst case scenario, so, you know, that I get prophecy points.
00:44:58.400I saw that when you were talking about it.
00:45:20.400And they dramatically population in places like Florida and in places like Texas.
00:45:25.620And they dramatically over counted in places like New York and Delaware.
00:45:29.420And like by like five percentage points in some places, the population in these places, electoral votes get allocated on the basis of the 2020 census.
00:45:36.840So if they actually done the count properly, Trump could lose all of the blue wall states and still win the election.
00:45:43.120And so if it ends up being 270 to 268 with Trump winning the states that we just mentioned, Florida is going to file a lawsuit and will end up at the Supreme Court because they will say they have been materially harmed.
00:45:51.740People have been disenfranchised in the state of Florida by the failure to properly count their vote and because of the census data.
00:45:58.140And then it'll be up to the Supreme Court and the make of three Trump appointees to figure out whether that's true.
00:46:02.940Now, my guess is that the court will probably kick that case.
00:46:05.560I guess the court will say that's a political question.
00:47:14.280Which they've been they've been kind of preparing the landscape with that by calling this the Supreme Court, you know, Trump's right wing core and all and all the things.
00:47:34.740This is exactly what you were ripping Trump for in 2020.
00:47:37.320And now you're doing the exact same thing.0.96
00:47:38.400And this is why whenever you get the like Trump is a threat to democracy bullshit, it's like, OK, guys, like you do all the exact same things that Donald Trump did and would do.0.92
00:47:46.300And then you claim it's a threat to democracy when he does it.0.95
00:47:48.380When you do it, it's a defense of democracy.
00:47:50.400And, you know, this all spirals out of control.
00:47:52.420I think that there are a bunch of things that have happened in American life that are truly bad over the course of the last 10 years, among them the fact that we have not unified any of our voting procedures.
00:48:00.700I live in the amazing state of Florida, which fixed all of its voting after 2000.
00:48:04.080So after 2000, with the debacle, with the butterfly ballots and all that, we fixed our voting, which means that we count all of our early voting early.
00:48:11.400All that stuff's been tabulated. And then everybody who votes day of, you feed your thing in the machine, it's counted all of it.
00:48:16.700Five minutes after the polls close, you're going to have a result from Florida. It's really easy. It's not difficult at all.
00:48:21.480And none of these other states have done it. That is a complete mess.
00:48:24.700And, you know, and then you have just the fact that I think in the minds of both parties, something is fundamentally broken.
00:48:30.320So as long as I've been alive, the general rule was when somebody loses a presidential election, the going theory is the reason why they lost the presidential election is because they weren't good enough to win.
01:08:58.620thinks about the election that's going on right now larry think what do you think he thinks about
01:09:04.220it do you think he'd be cheering for kamala you you'd think that right let me tell you what he
01:09:09.500thinks in the extension for all access members in just a second at shadowdavis.com so here we go
01:09:15.100um pennsylvania's flipped back red as you can see here but not by much and the polls seem very
01:09:22.460accurate about what was going to happen in pennsylvania i mean 43 reporting right now trump
01:09:27.980is leading 49.9% to 49.2%. That's like not quite 20,000 votes. That's tight. Minnesota,
01:09:38.5002% reporting now, and Trump is leading. That's not going to stay. Just so you're aware,
01:09:43.520Wisconsin, kind of a surprise that at 36% reporting, Trump is leading by 14,000 votes there.
01:09:51.480Kansas. So by the way, just so you're aware, if Minnesota stays this way, it won't.
01:09:57.980could but it won't that would completely offset this iowa swing which is weird that kamala harris0.65
01:10:04.360is leading in iowa right now but again only 30 percent of polls reporting in pennsylvania at 44
01:10:10.760percent now showing that lead tightening up holy crap did that flip over while i've been talking
01:10:17.800to you guys wasn't it just red a second ago it flipped back blue that's going to be a crazy one
01:10:23.080So if you want to follow this, if it's the New York Times election map, if you want to continue following all night long, if you don't want to watch that corporate media coverage, you know, where they're interrupted every second by somebody's victory speech, some senator or congressman or congresswoman, I'd like to thank all of you for being involved in my campaign.
01:10:44.360all of that nonsense if you just want the numbers you don't want to be interrupted by you know
01:10:50.160anybody's uh opinion or analysis about what's going on then this is for you the new york times
01:10:57.140election map is available look at that it's on google right that's pretty easy to find we're
01:11:03.040going to continue on with the extension in just a couple of minutes for all access members at
01:11:08.260shadow davis.com for those of you not following us there i'll catch you tomorrow night at eight
01:11:14.220o'clock central for another shadow at night live stream i love you all i appreciate you all i'll
01:11:19.120see you again tomorrow night all access i'll see you in two minutes