The Stone Zone | 12-30-25
Episode Stats
Summary
In fall of 2025, Americans face a beef shortage not seen since before 1951, when cattle numbers reached 82 million head compared to just 28 million head in 2025. This decline has driven prices skyward, turning a dietary staple into a veritable luxury.
Transcript
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Well, I don't know about you, but I like a good steak or a high-quality hamburger.
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But very soon, they could both be very hard to find
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and extremely expensive, even if you can find one.
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Right here in America, land of plenty, beef may be nearly inaccessible.
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You see, in fall of 2025, Americans face a beef shortage
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not seen since before 1951, when cattle numbers reached 82 million head
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This decline has driven prices skyward, turning a dietary staple into a veritable luxury.
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Ground beef, once $303.50 per pound, now exceeds $6 in many areas of the country with steaks
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and roasts, posting double-digit prices, an increase that is charted by the USDA,
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A combination of restrictive environmental regulations, escalating production costs,
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elevated livestock feed prices, and a New World screwworm outbreak in southern and eastern Mexico,
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where flesh-eating larvae threatened livestock has disrupted supply chains.
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Beef from northern Mexico appears to be untainted,
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as ranchers there see testing to prove this to officials at the USDA.
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raising concerns about how America's beef industry reached this crisis,
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and what steps can be taken to restore affordability as well as abundance.
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One way, of course, President Donald Trump has decided,
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since there is an acute shortage in the United States,
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he agreed to a 14% increase in beef imports from Argentina,
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source of some of the greatest beef in the country, or I should say in the world.
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But whether the U.S. trade representative fast-tracks that decision
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in order to get hamburger at a reasonable price into the stores,
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The 2015 Clean Water Rule passed under the Obama administration,
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later widely expanded under the Biden-Harris administration in 2023,
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tightened regulations on waters of the United States,
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restricting access to grazing lands for ranchers.
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Climate Smart Initiative from the Inflation Reduction Act,
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imposed costly compliance measures such as methane reduction programs
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These regulations of prioritizing environmental goals over food security
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have handcuffed ranchers, forcing some to sell off of cattle
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Domestic and global economic factors have added to this beef crisis.
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Feed prices for soybeans and corn have risen 20% to 25% since 2021,
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exacerbating costs for U.S. ranchers and causing disruptions.
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And, of course, the war in Ukraine started in 2022
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Fuel and labor costs amplified by inflation reached a high of 8% in 2022.
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They have also strained agricultural operations.
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High interest rates on loans have limited reinvestment in herds,
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all the while labor shortages and pandemic-era spending
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have reduced farm productivity, increased operational costs,
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threatening the sustainability of small and mid-sized farms.
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This resulted in plummeting U.S. capital inventory,
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cattle inventory, down 28.2 million head in 2025,
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Beef production is projected to fall to 26.4 billion pounds in 2025.
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while overall food prices have risen 3.4% this year,
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as the U.S. resumed beef imports from Archina in 2015
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after a 14-year ban because they had foot and mouth disease,
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and veterinary inspections ensuing compliance with safety standards,
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and, therefore, their imports are scaling up gradually.
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that he would increase beef quotas from Argentina
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after meeting with Argentine President Javier Melier.
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Mexico has been a vital supplier of live cannulity to the United States,
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typically providing about 1.1 million head annually.
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However, an ongoing New World's screwworm outbreak
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and remains active with no full resumption in sight.
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In 2024, U.S. imported 1.52 million metric tons of beef.
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they haven't been enough to offset the domestic shortages
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Families are facing sticker shock at grocery stores,
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in a country where steak now symbolizes wealth.
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While higher beef prices offer short-term gains,
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with per capita consumption dropping to 55 pounds by 2026.
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affluent guidelines for the meat and poultry sector,
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while targeting the cancellation of USDA regulations
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President Trump also enacted energy policy adjustments
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All of this paired with broader tariff strategies
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It highlights the need for collective solutions,
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to ensure a stable and resilient beef industry.
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As Americans navigate the supermarket for beef,
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for an unprecedented 50-year security guarantee
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While the Biden-era national security establishment