Will Trump Win？ Pollster Rich Baris Enters The StoneZONE w⧸ Roger Stone
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Summary
Roger Stone and Troy Smith of Slingshot News and Rich Barris of the People s Pundit join me in The Stone Zone to discuss the implications of Donald Trump's historic win in Super Tuesday, and how the mainstream media reacted to it. Plus, a look at why the media is in full denial about the results of Super Tuesday and why we should be worried about it. The Stonezone is a production of the Center for American Politics, a conservative political and cultural think tank that focuses on the intersection of politics, culture, economics, and culture. Founded in 1980, the group's mission is to inform, inform, and empower Americans to make informed decisions about politics, business, and public policy. The mission is simple: to help Americans make smart decisions about their elected officials, their communities, and their elected representatives. Stone has served as a senior campaign aide to three Republican presidents, is a New York Times best-selling author, and a longtime friend and advisor of President Donald Trump. As an outspoken libertarian, Stone has appeared on thousands of broadcasts, spoken at countless events, and lectured before the prestigious Oxford Political Union and the Cambridge Union Society, and has lectured at countless venues. He is a prolific writer, and is a regular contributor to publications such as The Daily Caller, The Weekly Standard, and The New Republic. and The Huffington Post. Stone has been described as a pop culture icon . and is one of the most influential people in the conservative media. . Roger Stone joins me to talk about all things politics, including politics, pop culture, and pop culture in this week's newest viral video, and the latest episode of , and much more! on this week s episode of The StoneZONE from the Stone Zone with his co-host, Troy Smith of Slangshot News is on the newest podcast, The Stonez Zone. (The Stone Zone, with his new podcast, hosted by his new book, . . is out on the ground in Virginia's newest podcast. , The Stone Zones & also on the road in Virginia s podcast is out in Virginia, and in New York s Northern Virginia s newest location, The Loudon County, Virginia s Loudon Co., Virginia's Loudoun County, VA. joins us in the Stonezone to talk all things election night.
Transcript
00:00:00.000
The Stone Zone, with legendary Republican strategist and political icon and pundit, Roger Stone.
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Stone has served as a senior campaign aide to three Republican presidents.
00:00:11.260
He is a New York Times best-selling author and a longtime friend and advisor of President Donald Trump.
00:00:16.880
As an outspoken libertarian, Stone has appeared on thousands of broadcasts,
00:00:20.960
spoken at countless venues, and lectured before the prestigious Oxford Political Union and the Cambridge Union Society.
00:00:27.280
Due to his four-plus decades in the political and cultural arena, Stone has become a pop culture icon.
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Welcome. I'm Roger Stone, and yes, you are back in the Stone Zone.
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With Donald Trump's massive, even historic, victory this past Tuesday, sweeping the delegates on Super Tuesday,
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the mainstream media has shifted into high gear in terms of their hysteria and the level of their disinformation.
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That result leading me to think, maybe that five-point spread in the New York Times poll and our poll
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and the head-to-head matchup is not quite accurate.
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Maybe the enthusiasm for Joe Biden is, as their campaign has been claiming,
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bigger than we think once it was a binary choice.
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Yeah. So, Andrea, here's my big takeaway on all the general election polls that we're seeing eight months from now.
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The biggest conclusion is this is going to be a very competitive race, just like we ended up seeing in 2020.
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I think the totality of polling that we're seeing right now, eight months looking ahead to November,
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So, in other words, the NBC's own poll is wrong.
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The New York Times' Siena College poll is wrong.
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We're supposed to believe that Joe Biden's much stronger than he appears because, well,
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the women in Andrea Mitchell's Pilates class say so, please.
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Here to help me break down the political waterfront is my co-host, Troy Smith of Slingshot.news,
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And as you said, historic victory and the pivot by the mainstream media to try to get away from the facts here,
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even when it's their own polling, is pretty amazing to watch.
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I wanted to ask you right off the bat here, Roger, have you ever seen polling,
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a network deny their own polling in this kind of sense?
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It's the first time I've ever seen it, but you also see it across the board.
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CNN, the other night, actually, the night of Super Tuesday,
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basically trying to say, look at Vermont, look at Vermont, look at Vermont,
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the only state where less than 70,000 people voted,
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and Nikki Haley very narrowly edged Donald Trump.
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Don't look at all these massive states where he won by historical margins with historical turnout.
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My good friend, Sean Hannity, is exactly right.
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Today, joining us is one of the, I think, the most important and the most reliable survey researchers,
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He runs the Big Data Poll, but he's also an extraordinary analyst of all the public data,
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and Rich Barris joins us in the Stone Zone now.
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Hey, Roger, it's good to be with you, and thanks for having me back.
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Well, Rich, you certainly join us at a very happy time.
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I know you did a lot of polling prior to Super Tuesday.
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If anything, you could argue the former president performed a little bit better than some of us expected.
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In some of these states, everybody wants to talk about Vermont,
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and when the former president is winning the early vote,
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and then, of course, the election day vote in Loudoun County, Virginia,
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That was a sign, an early sign, that it was going to be a very bad night for the former ambassador,
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So it panned out almost identical, including the polling that we had just done nationally.
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In the Super Tuesday states, the margin for President Trump to Nikki Haley is almost identical to what we had.
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Yeah, her argument, of course, that she could win and that the president could not win, fell on deaf ears.
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And I think the president was extraordinarily disciplined on Tuesday night
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when he directed his fire entirely at Joe Biden and the horrific record of the Biden administration,
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and he spent no time whatsoever talking about Nikki Haley.
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Now, of course, the next morning, she finally folded her tent.
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But you notice, much like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, she did not endorse the president,
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meaning she did not say, I am supporting, I will vote for, I support Donald Trump.
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So we continue to have this small group within the party who doesn't generate many votes, frankly,
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but who seem to deeply resent what looks to me like the beginning of the greatest single comeback
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in American political history right before our very eyes.
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Let's shift to the general election because that's clearly what the Trump campaign is doing.
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And, Rich, tell us what you see and where things are headed.
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You know, I have this map I would love to go over with you.
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Before I do that, though, let me just say, you know, in hindsight to what Andrea Mitchell was saying
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and everybody else about the general election, we did this polling, the New York Times poll
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that put everybody from the media in a panic that had just come out.
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They were not only, Roger, identical when it came to their general election numbers,
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the latest ballot test head-to-head between Presidents Trump and Biden,
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but also their Super Tuesday state margin was almost identical to ours,
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So 75, 25 across all of the Super Tuesday states,
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that's a pretty good indicator that we're also right about the general election.
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So this idea that all the pollsters would be very accurate in these primaries
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and not the general election is insane because, of course, it is more difficult to poll primary elections
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with high-interest voters and the most interested people out there,
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lower-propensity voters vote in generals, so it's easier to poll a general election.
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So I just wanted to point that out there, that it's really a ridiculous argument
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to make that we'd all be right somehow in the primary and get the general election wrong.
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So if I could, I mean, I don't know how much time we have, but if we could, I'd love to put up this, Matt.
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I really think it's the best way to do it. Is that all right?
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Yeah, I think that's an excellent way to proceed.
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First of all, you're not certain who's going to turn out.
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The voters in a primary survey tuned, generally speaking, to be more tuned in,
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Taking a general election poll is far more reliable and technologically easier to do.
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Before we move to the map, Troy, do you have any questions for Rich?
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Moving into this general election, you know, there seems to be this kind of idea
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that immigration is the top issue, and this was joked about on MSNBC
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with several people making comments saying that the people in Virginia
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In our last poll, and it was, you know, again, you know, bear in mind,
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we're talking about, you know, two weeks ago, ballpark, give or take a little bit.
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But we did have immigration number two behind inflation, but it was coming up quick.
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And I said this after we released it, that had we stayed in the field
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for maybe another couple of days, immigration might have overtaken inflation
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And then looking at, we had exit polling done during Super Tuesday.
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And there's no doubt, Republican voters across the country, it's, for them,
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And that's remarkable how that's true in Virginia, and that's true in Tennessee, right?
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So it's, and by the way, even in other areas in the Midwest, it's really remarkable
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how consistent this is, that voters in Minnesota are saying the same thing
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that voters in Tennessee and Oklahoma are saying, right?
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Maybe they vary to certain degrees, but it has been immigration after that.
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I think inflation and immigration are going to be the two I's going into this election.
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And then third, you know, the general sense about jobs and the economy.
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Uh, guys, abortion was way back there, way back there.
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In 2022, it was always number three, and you would see that there was a certain group
00:10:04.500
So, you know, they did mock this issue of immigration, and I'm telling you they do so
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We, in North Carolina, where we are, we went to go vote, and you can tell the difference
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when an independent voter pulls a Republican or a Democratic ballot.
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And what we saw in a 30% African-American county was a ton of Black voters pulling Republican
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So, you know, they mocked this at their own peril, because guess what?
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The exit poll shows, well, it didn't matter if you're white, you're Black, immigration was
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All right, let's, uh, let's move into your map, uh, Professor, lead the way.
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All right, so this is, uh, the Decision Desk map, which I'm putting on, we partner with
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Decision Desk, there's a lot of great resources out there.
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Uh, but they have their polling averages, and then they have their interactive maps
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that you can go and play with and check it out on your own time.
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This is the map, and I'm giving a little bit of credit here to Biden.
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This is the map that either has a polling average assigned to it, and if it's 0 to 7,
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If there's no polling average, they use the vote from 2020 to decide how that state was
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An interesting point here is that Maine now has a few states, but in order for them to
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have a polling average, they need five qualifying polls that have, uh, they do a weighted average
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So, you know, I want to get into the weeds too much, but Maine is only light blue right
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The entire state is only light blue because there aren't yet five polls, but recent polls
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have shown and other averages like 270 and RCP that Trump is actually ahead statewide right
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So I just had to give that as a caveat, but let's leave that for a second.
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Going out West, and I'm going to get, I'm going to assign this, Roger, just based on the
00:12:01.560
And then we can talk about states that have like let Republicans down in the, in the past.
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Maybe Democrats have a ballot stuffing down to a science in one of them.
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But if you just look at Nevada, that state is actually in the, or it fell a little bit
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to the lean category now where Trump is up by, Oh no, I'm sorry.
00:12:20.740
It's likely Trump is up by eight or so points, which is insane.
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Next door in Arizona, it's in the lean because it's, it's below seven, uh, seven, but he has
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These states, um, obviously Nevada was about three points to Biden.
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These states though, however, have a history of voting Republican, at least in recent memory
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post the recession, the great recession, Nevada has not gone Republican, right?
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But Arizona has been a Republican state until Joe Biden took it in recent memory.
00:12:57.280
That also, by the way, um, Wisconsin is Trump plus 2.2.
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And now Pennsylvania with like, with new polls that were added is just around where Michigan
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These three Rust Belt states have voted the same in the last eight presidential cycles.
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So if you win Pennsylvania, it's highly likely the other two states will follow.
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Michigan has been the most difficult for Trump to win.
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And he's polling exceptionally strong in the state as of right now.
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I'm not, I'm going through this really quickly, but right now he's already at two 80.
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It doesn't matter if he wins, uh, Georgia or North Carolina, North Carolina, of course,
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This is the state, uh, that he is polling in the strongest compared to expectations.
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There's been some East ECU polling, which knows the state.
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They've had Trump considering up considerably between six and 11 points.
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Let's be, let's be nice to Joe Biden and put it in the lean for now.
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But it really is, uh, it is in the likely as far as just the polling average goes.
00:14:02.680
And so is Georgia, which Joe Biden supposedly carried by about two tenths of a percentage
00:14:10.560
That already puts, uh, Donald Trump at three 12.
00:14:13.960
Again, I, at this point, I would argue Roger that this is close to Trump's floor at this
00:14:20.480
Now I, you always run like you're 10 points behind, but if what we're seeing with the
00:14:24.820
polling and what we're seeing with the primary voting, uh, I really do think that that's
00:14:28.920
a fair place that to see this election at this point, you could argue Minnesota is very
00:14:35.240
Although if you look at the polling right now, it does lean to Joe Biden main, obviously
00:14:42.220
We'll wait to see what other polls say, but the whole point of this is that it is rare
00:14:47.720
when we see state level polling basically confirm or match what the national polling is
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So in the national average, Trump is a little bit more than a two point lead.
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That makes sense in States like Iowa and Ohio, which are, if you look at partisan voting
00:15:03.620
index, they're about R plus six, we would expect Trump to be up about 14 points in these
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If Trump had a little bit more than a two point national popular vote lead.
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Another state that does as well as Arizona, it's almost, um, it's almost identical.
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If Trump is up by two, we would expect him to have about a six point lead.
00:15:35.920
I could go all over the map and point that out, but this is, I want to stress that this
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There is usually a disparity between state polls.
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There can be a little bit, um, you know, a little bit of a variance between the Midwest
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and, and the West, but we're seeing this basic alignment all over the country.
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And that's true of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
00:16:01.220
The only one that was out of the PVI for a little bit was PA and recent polls show that
00:16:06.300
Trump, his average is about where we would expect it to be.
00:16:09.280
If he had a two point national lead, um, again, this is a rosy scenario, but let's say for
00:16:19.920
You know, I'm talking about, uh, you know, rich what, you know what they do in Allegheny
00:16:28.720
Let's go back to what happened to Kerry Lake in Arizona.
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We know what happened in 2020 and there are all these doubters out there.
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There's something that happened that people, I don't think they're understanding in 2020.
00:16:47.120
The census made the map easier for Donald Trump to win.
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So it's not that he needs, it used to be the other way around.
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Republicans need needed to pull an inside straight at this point, looking at this map
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and I'll stop and give everybody time to digest this.
00:17:02.260
But at this point, it looks like Joe Biden is the one who needs the inside straight to
00:17:12.980
Uh, does it concern you, uh, that in very few of these polls, either state polls or nationally
00:17:19.600
polls, uh, it is very, very rare that you see while president Trump does maintain a lead,
00:17:27.580
sometimes a lead outside the margin of error, but there are very few polls where he breaks
00:17:40.540
And let me say why, um, because we have a rematch between two presidents.
00:17:44.780
So the incumbent rule, it concerned me a lot, Roger, in 2020, you know, when he was polling
00:17:50.020
where he was as an incumbent president, uh, yes, the country knew Joe Biden, but he was
00:17:55.860
It wasn't a sitting, you know, he wasn't, he wasn't a president.
00:18:01.520
Now it's almost like we have two incumbents, uh, or at least one quasi incumbent, but the
00:18:09.300
And he's the one who's struggling to get higher.
00:18:11.700
Also, you know, you have Jill Stein, that's going to have, we have to eventually start
00:18:18.100
Um, and the third reason why I'm not terribly, you know, concerned at this point is because
00:18:23.700
Donald Trump tends to overperform his national polling.
00:18:27.800
That's not to say that it's going to happen every time.
00:18:30.500
And we can, um, we, we can just say for sure it'll happen this time, but in the past,
00:18:35.700
that's what happened, that's what has happened.
00:18:38.100
And just from where he is now, which is about an RCP, he's about at 48 and a half percent.
00:18:45.640
He may have actually ticked up to 48.7 with the addition of the last couple of polls that
00:18:49.880
were added to the average, but he has never been that high.
00:18:53.320
Uh, the only time he's been, uh, two tenths of a percentage point lower than that was, uh,
00:18:58.860
December of last year when he faced Hillary and he faced Joe Biden, he was always, uh, hovering
00:19:04.540
in the aggregate around 45 to 47%, a little lower than 47, 46.8 is where he was, um, in
00:19:14.200
So he, again, it's not that we can absolutely conclude he will overperform the polls, but
00:19:20.000
he's higher than he's ever been in the aggregate Roger and passed his prologue.
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He has always had a tendency to overperform his polls.
00:19:29.660
It's understandable, uh, given the atmosphere in America, there's a substantial number of
00:19:35.600
voters, I think, who are not going to answer a telephone poll, uh, with someone they don't
00:19:45.660
Uh, it's amazing that things have come to this in America today, but it's a phenomena we
00:19:54.040
We hear anecdotally and seen some evidence, uh, that the president is really making inroads
00:20:01.020
among younger voters, uh, among Hispanic voters and among African American voters.
00:20:07.960
Uh, is this indeed something that you are seeing, uh, in the cross tabs in the, uh, in the polling,
00:20:18.260
Yeah, without a doubt, uh, we've been tracking, uh, the president's vote chair, uh, going back
00:20:24.980
to pre Hillary Clinton when he was facing Hillary Clinton in 2016, Roger, we had him at about
00:20:33.700
Uh, we had him a little over 30% of the Hispanic vote.
00:20:39.200
We had him at 12 and validated voter surveys a little different than the exit polls.
00:20:43.380
They say he probably got a little bit less, but ballpark.
00:20:46.540
We were right in that neighborhood with Hispanics.
00:20:48.960
We had him just below, uh, just below 40 at 37%.
00:20:54.360
Now he routinely without leaners, he's pulling two in 10 black voters.
00:21:00.340
The New York times has, um, had him at 22 or 23 in this latest poll they put out.
00:21:08.260
And by the way, Biden support was in our poll about 62% in the New York times.
00:21:14.320
So it's remarkably similar how close we all are for all of us to be this wrong after also
00:21:22.980
It would be, it would, it would be a pretty astonishing.
00:21:28.420
There's at least usually disagreement in the polling universe and that disagreement.
00:21:32.660
We're not really seeing this time when you're, when we're talking about the issues you're
00:21:36.260
asking about younger voters were a little bit less bullish than some of the other polls,
00:21:40.200
uh, with 18 to 29 year olds, but certainly those who are 30 to 39 have shifted to Trump
00:21:47.460
Um, even if they were to go back to Biden structurally with the, with, with the loss
00:21:52.480
of support he's had with all of these, what are traditional democratic groups, he's going
00:21:58.540
It's a big, big, big chunk of the electorate moving forward.
00:22:02.440
They, you know, they, they haven't even flexed their political muscle yet.
00:22:05.860
Gentlemen, every year Hispanics vote at lower rates than they are as a share of the population.
00:22:11.020
If they choose to do that one cycle, you better be the candidate who's getting close to, you
00:22:16.040
know, to the numbers Trump is getting right now, because that can do a lot of damage in
00:22:20.640
And obviously we always talk about Florida, but he's doing so well nationally with Hispanics.
00:22:26.260
You have to look at states like Minnesota and wonder if they're not going to be very close.
00:22:29.860
Yeah, it's very interesting when I look at the cross tabs on Spanish voters, what I find
00:22:36.180
is that Republicans and Trump specifically have made their greatest gains among Hispanic
00:22:42.160
voters who speak Spanish, but get their information in their news in English.
00:22:47.980
Uh, and he has not made the same gains among those Spanish voters, Hispanic voters who speak
00:22:54.340
Spanish, but get their, their news, uh, in Spanish language.
00:22:59.280
Uh, there's a important advertising tip there for the Trump campaign, uh, and, uh, the Republicans.
00:23:06.680
Troy, do you have a question for the people's pundit, uh, Rich Paris?
00:23:11.100
He's, he is, uh, he's much, much, uh, uh, sought after as a guest, which we're honored to
00:23:17.860
Uh, your data has been historically incredibly accurate.
00:23:23.240
And that of course is the coin of the realm for any pollster, uh, Troy, your question.
00:23:31.100
I, and I gotta say when I see that Rich is coming on the show and I get that note beforehand,
00:23:36.380
We get to learn about what's going to happen here.
00:23:41.140
But, uh, Rich, my question to you is, you know, we've talked a lot about, uh, Trump's
00:23:46.740
And I wanted to ask if you've done any polling considering that, and if there's any candidate that
00:23:50.640
actually gives him a boost in the general versus maybe taking some votes away, or how does
00:23:57.780
I'm going to get this a lot as we can, you know, get closer to the election.
00:24:01.040
I have long thought, and I'm curious to know what Roger thinks about this as well, but I
00:24:06.100
have a long thought looking at the polling this year and even in 23, that his, his decision
00:24:12.220
this time is a little different than prior presidential nominees.
00:24:15.360
I would think that he needs to pick somebody who obviously doesn't hurt him, uh, and electorally,
00:24:20.740
uh, but that also it's not a Mike Pence like pick.
00:24:28.960
You know, the Republican party is, is far more unified by Donald Trump than Biden's is
00:24:38.000
So it leaves him free to pick someone who will watch his back when he's the president.
00:24:41.760
I really think that the establishment and the state has to fear Trump's nominee about
00:24:47.600
as much as they fear him, if not worse, because if they're an acceptable alternative to Trump,
00:24:53.060
then they're going to constantly, it'll be a constant onslaught to try to get rid of him
00:24:58.920
That being said, with the polling, I'm a little bit stunned.
00:25:02.060
We have pulled this and we pulled it in a, uh, you know, uh, the general electorate, and
00:25:08.420
we've also pulled it among activist groups because we do the turning point USA poll.
00:25:15.660
Christy Noem, governor Noem, uh, did also very well, which I'll be honest, surprised me
00:25:22.140
Noem was popular among activists, but also popular among the general electorate.
00:25:29.620
You know, it's been a long time since we pulled somebody like Ron DeSantis.
00:25:32.980
I, I, I'm only saying that because I don't want to be accused of not mentioning that
00:25:40.040
And it certainly did, uh, at one point anyway, help, but I think we're beyond that now.
00:25:44.660
And I don't think that the governor of Florida, even if that was possible would end up being
00:25:51.180
I think some, he needs a, he needs an unconventional bomb.
00:25:56.840
And looking around the States, like we just did on that map, it doesn't really matter.
00:26:00.560
He doesn't need to go and find the, the native Wisconsin, uh, you know, politician to throw
00:26:05.560
on the ticket like Mitt Romney did, which by the way, didn't help him at all.
00:26:15.000
Uh, but that's not gonna, you know, that, that those concerns are just not there this
00:26:19.840
I would listen to the voters, by the way, Tucker Carlson was also very popular across the
00:26:24.860
Um, but if you want to go with a C for a pick and someone like a gnome, I would go, if it
00:26:30.340
was me and I'm not the president, you know, but if it was me, I'd throw a bomb guys.
00:26:34.220
I would, I'd throw a bomb and by a bomb, I mean like a Vivek or a Tucker or somebody like
00:26:39.380
Somebody of that, um, that cut where it's somebody doesn't play by the rules.
00:26:44.000
The establishment knows they won't play by the rules and the base is just like, yes,
00:26:49.060
you know, that's what I would personally do if it was me.
00:26:51.820
But yeah, they're all obviously as we have established here, but we have to keep repeating
00:26:58.180
the 12th amendment of the constitution specifically prohibits, uh, the candidate for president and
00:27:06.020
vice president, uh, being from the same state, uh, while you can actually do it, you would
00:27:11.580
forfeit the electoral college votes of the state.
00:27:14.360
So that takes a great candidate like Byron Donalds, who I like very much out of, of the
00:27:19.860
mix, uh, I, I, you know, there's two different ways to look at this and we've talked about
00:27:24.580
both on the one hand, Richard Nixon himself once told me when looking for a running mate,
00:27:30.940
don't look for someone who can help you just find someone who doesn't hurt you.
00:27:36.660
But, uh, that does not take into consideration a good point, which you made, which is once Trump
00:27:43.440
And I believe he will be, uh, we can expect the same kind of deep state effort to remove
00:27:51.100
Uh, and therefore they need to know that that would be fruitless because whoever became president,
00:27:57.600
uh, upon Trump's illegitimate removal would be just as deeply committed to the America first
00:28:08.560
Or I should say the anti neocon, uh, uh, non interventionist agenda, uh, as Donald Trump
00:28:16.320
is, uh, here, here is a question, Rich, have you examined the potential impact, uh, of the
00:28:27.700
Now we've said here on the show many times that it's not at all clear that Robert Kennedy
00:28:34.420
will be on the ballot in enough States, uh, to, uh, have a meaningful, uh, or to pose a
00:28:40.160
meaningful, uh, uh, factor in the upcoming election.
00:28:43.960
Getting on the ballot is far more difficult as independent than most people realize, uh, the
00:28:52.180
laws that govern ballot access in the States are written by Republicans and Democrats working
00:29:02.300
So you don't just sign a form and write a check.
00:29:05.600
You have to collect, uh, in most States and every States different, you have to collect
00:29:09.900
a very substantial number of valid voter signatures.
00:29:13.980
They have to be signatures of people who have not signed a, uh, a party nominating petition
00:29:21.760
They usually compress the period of time under which you are, have to collect a very large
00:29:29.460
They usually tell you, you have to have a minimum number, uh, within a certain number of congressional
00:29:35.460
districts within a given state, usually a majority.
00:29:41.520
So we're not conceding here yet that Robert Kennedy will be on the ballot.
00:29:47.860
I'm reading now about a new flirtation with the libertarian party, which I thought he had
00:29:55.660
But now seems to be talking about it again, to me, that's a hint that perhaps just perhaps
00:30:01.700
his, uh, ballot access drive, his efforts to get on the ballot as an independent may
00:30:09.340
But Rich, have you seen any data, either yours or others that tell you how, if he were on
00:30:15.400
the ballot, uh, as an independent, how he affects this race?
00:30:19.500
We, we do, uh, poll, not just him, but, you know, usually about four to six different
00:30:26.480
scenarios based on what could happen, uh, with ballot access, whether that's adding just
00:30:32.800
him alone, um, or him with a generic third party, someone else, or naming all of the others
00:30:42.240
But like you just said, if he flirts with the libertarian nomination, then Lars won't
00:30:47.900
So there are very, you know, different, uh, scenarios that we pose to voters.
00:30:51.960
I'll tell you what you just said is really important to understand the answer to this
00:30:56.380
Everyone is focusing on these national polls and even in our own national polling, it
00:31:00.960
looks like Kennedy helps Trump, but the truth is much more complicated.
00:31:04.640
And depending whether you're looking at Minnesota, for instance, that's a state where Kennedy
00:31:09.360
in our polling, a couple of polls we've done does hurt Biden.
00:31:12.700
But if you go neighbor, you know, a little bit further to the East and you go to Pennsylvania
00:31:16.620
and two out of the three polls that we did, it looked like that he was actually hurting
00:31:21.580
So it's a more complicated question than just whether or not, if he's on the ballot, does
00:31:28.420
Because think I would tell people to think about it like this in a state like Minnesota, where
00:31:32.840
you have a lot of left-wing populists, it would make sense that the poll findings are
00:31:36.940
finding what they are, which is that yes, it would hurt Biden among those kinds of left-wing
00:31:41.300
populists, which is a deep strain that runs in Minnesota.
00:31:46.840
They may vote against, they may vote for a Biden against like a Mitt Romney or, uh, one
00:31:51.460
time, the first time voting against Donald Trump, but they're not going to do it again.
00:31:55.600
And these people would either stay home or they would vote for Donald Trump.
00:31:58.440
So putting somebody like RFK in the ballot takes those people, uh, that are unsatisfied
00:32:03.220
away from Biden and it leaves them, uh, leaves the rest of them free to vote for Trump.
00:32:08.840
But in Pennsylvania, Roger, there just aren't a bunch of why no Valium Tupperware going
00:32:15.940
suburban educated women, you know, dying to vote for somebody like Robert Kennedy, who had
00:32:27.600
They hear he's made all of these comments that the media has, has dinged him over.
00:32:33.680
There aren't a ton of Southeastern educated voters that are Biden voters now, you know,
00:32:39.440
out there dying to vote for somebody like that.
00:32:41.660
This guy has appeal to economic populists who are not educated.
00:32:46.960
And sometimes that pulls from Democrats in areas like Minnesota, but in states like Pennsylvania,
00:32:51.780
it's in our findings show that it would hurt Trump.
00:32:55.180
So, um, yeah, we, again, it's unlikely that, however, that he would be on some of these
00:33:02.000
state ballots like Arizona or Georgia, even Pennsylvania and not have West and Stein on
00:33:08.400
Stein is probably going to be more of an impact moving forward at this rate, because the reason
00:33:14.460
why you're hearing him flirting with the libertarian nomination again is because they don't know
00:33:20.900
I'm not trying to criticize anybody, but when his campaign manager, uh, who knows more about
00:33:26.020
the intelligence agency than she does about campaigning, when she released her list of
00:33:30.480
states that were targeting for ballot access, I just laughed and wondered if this was a serious
00:33:36.220
They're not even going after states that make it easier for them to get on the ballot.
00:33:40.020
They have, they, their strategy makes no sense to people who do this for a living.
00:33:44.100
So, um, I actually think it's, it's likely that somebody like Stein who has organization
00:33:49.860
behind her is going to be more of an impact to this election than Kennedy will be.
00:33:55.020
Arizona, like Roger, what you just said, each state is different.
00:33:58.620
Arizona is extremely difficult for an independent candidate to get on the ballot.
00:34:02.500
Georgia is where independent candidates for president go to die.
00:34:08.880
So, uh, Stein who has, uh, support behind her with the green party and whomever the inevitable,
00:34:15.000
uh, libertarian candidate might be, uh, they're probably going to play a much bigger role.
00:34:20.920
And by the way, I, this is a little extra and I don't know if you want me to go into the
00:34:25.340
weeds, but if Robert Kennedy is on the ballot as a libertarian, he actually does worse than
00:34:37.160
Also, um, I think a lot of people who cited this fact that he also, when he files, uh,
00:34:43.120
as an independent, uh, as he has, for example, in Utah, uh, he has to name his running
00:34:48.840
mate, uh, and he still doesn't have a high profile credible running mate.
00:34:54.340
Now, some States will allow you to come back before they print the ballot, uh, and amend
00:35:01.940
They require you to submit that name at the time you submit your qualifying petitions.
00:35:07.440
This is why in 1968, George Wallace, who ran, uh, uh, a national campaign as, uh, an extremist,
00:35:15.580
but as, uh, an independent had different running mates in different States, which meant that
00:35:21.020
even though he ended up carrying a handful of Southern States, uh, he could never have,
00:35:26.700
uh, reached a general, uh, an electoral college total, just a, a little bit of, uh, of, uh,
00:35:35.060
We're going to have to wrap up with Rich Barris.
00:35:37.460
Last question to you, Troy, and then we're going to move along.
00:35:41.580
Rich, uh, if you, you've obviously been looking at this for a while.
00:35:45.040
You've been looking at a different, a lot of different elections.
00:35:47.340
If you could compare Trump's position right now to any other candidate's position in any
00:35:55.940
This is the kind of thing that dorks like me sit around and think about when I'm in
00:36:03.180
Um, this reminds me, and I know it's not modern memory, and I know that the elections are
00:36:13.560
The whole thing reminds me of Grover Cleveland.
00:36:16.360
And for those who don't know, Grover Cleveland was, even though he was a governor, he was
00:36:21.120
very much known as an anti-government corruption guy.
00:36:24.660
He came in, he was like a bourbon Democrat, uh, which was a dying breed back then.
00:36:29.360
Uh, and he basically said, look, you know, I'll come in here and I'll clean house.
00:36:34.680
Things were doing well, but the establishment couldn't stand him.
00:36:39.820
They liked, they wanted, you know, free silver was a big thing back then.
00:36:43.240
So they wanted him out and they got rid of him.
00:36:46.020
The country went to crap in four years and they begged him to come back and he had to
00:36:51.320
Uh, and that's what it's, it's an interesting story that aligns with that.
00:36:54.960
However, when I look at just the polling in recent memory, it kind of, uh, it, it's, it
00:37:01.100
really isn't a league of its own because Trump is polling stronger.
00:37:08.760
Bush did when he was running for reelection against John Kerry.
00:37:11.440
It wasn't until the summer when, uh, Bush opened up a big lead against Kerry, because
00:37:16.260
by the way, Kerry had to deal with a nomination process.
00:37:18.900
There are practically and legally, he couldn't answer the attacks that George Bush was leveling
00:37:26.080
Then they painted him as a, uh, out of touch, you know, Northeastern liberal, and he never
00:37:30.620
recovered from it, but the race was close, you know, before that.
00:37:34.600
And then in the final stretch, uh, Trump is actually doing better than George W. Bush
00:37:40.960
Uh, Herbert Walker Bush, as Roger knows, he was actually getting killed until, um, they
00:37:45.740
ran certain ads against the caucus, which ended the election a lot differently.
00:37:50.400
This is, you know, a little bit of a hybrid of, I would say, you know, polling, the data,
00:37:55.040
looking at it, it's like a stronger position than Bush was in 04.
00:37:58.840
Um, but the act, you know, the story reminds me of Grover Cleveland, but it isn't a league
00:38:04.240
You can always count on president Trump to break the historic mold, break the historical
00:38:11.020
That's going to be, you know, a part of the American story.
00:38:14.520
We, people when, when we're gone are going to look back and say, wow, that must've been
00:38:20.700
It's interesting to make the analogy to, uh, Grover Cleveland, uh, the only president to
00:38:25.940
serve one term, failed to be reelected in a disputed election in which his supporters
00:38:31.360
believe that he had been cheated, uh, and then come back to retake the white house.
00:38:36.280
Uh, not incidental that Grover Cleveland was like Donald Trump, uh, a New Yorker, a brash,
00:38:43.600
a New Yorker, rich Barris, uh, the, uh, people's a pundit.
00:38:49.320
So people know how to follow him or his, uh, URL if we could.
00:39:00.840
Thank you so much for joining us today in the stone zone.
00:39:06.160
As always for having me on look, uh, had a blast looking forward to next time.
00:39:13.080
All right, Troy, uh, we're going to take a very quick commercial break.
00:39:16.700
When we come back, we're going to talk about the Biden state of the union address coming
00:39:22.220
Cause I can't imagine what Joe Biden is going to say folks.
00:39:26.560
Uh, if you love history, uh, and if you love mysteries, and if you're looking for a great
00:39:32.120
read, let me recommend the man who killed Kennedy, the case against LBJ.
00:39:37.800
The man who killed Kennedy, the case against LBJ is a New York times, a bestseller, uh,
00:39:46.060
Uh, this is the shocking true story, uh, about how Lyndon Baines Johnson, uh, was the head
00:39:53.660
of a cabal that included the central intelligence agency, uh, also, uh, big Texas oil, uh, organized
00:40:01.120
crime, the secret service, uh, the FBI, uh, to, uh, take out, uh, president John F. Kennedy.
00:40:15.360
I witness evidence, uh, uh, as well as deep Texas politics, uh, to make the case that Lyndon
00:40:23.440
Johnson was the man who orchestrated the murder of his predecessor.
00:40:28.100
Uh, I'm not an attorney, but you will read this book and say, wow, he nailed it.
00:40:33.160
You can also order it by going to, uh, this website.
00:40:37.900
I believe it is, uh, the man who killed Kennedy, uh, dot com, the man who killed Kennedy.com.
00:40:45.280
By going there, you get a signed copy, uh, the man who killed Kennedy.com.
00:40:55.180
That's the end of our crash, crass commercial appeal.
00:40:59.780
Uh, Alex Stone, uh, my, uh, foe, uh, uh, uh, uh, adopted nephew will join us shortly, but
00:41:11.100
Troy, uh, the Democrats clearly intend to make abortion rights as they would call it yet again,
00:41:17.580
and the centerpiece of their election campaign.
00:41:20.540
They were pretty successful in doing that in the off year election.
00:41:25.300
Now, I think they're trying to distort, uh, a Supreme court decision regarding, uh, IVF,
00:41:36.200
You know, just last week we, or just a few weeks ago, it might've been two weeks at this
00:41:39.420
point, uh, Alabama Supreme court ruled, uh, that a couple that had lost, uh, an embryo,
00:41:45.080
uh, basically the situation was they had an embryo in an IVF clinic, which is in vitro,
00:41:51.440
It was a fertilized embryo, um, and someone had broken into the facility and, and tried
00:41:59.740
And when they did that, it was sub zero, uh, temperatures kind of containing the thing,
00:42:05.140
Uh, and, and, and when he, when he reached in and grabbed one of the embryos, it froze
00:42:10.560
Cause we're talking sub zero temperatures here, extremely cold.
00:42:15.860
Now, the result of that was the family, um, of this embryo said that they had paid money
00:42:22.460
And a lot of people don't know this, Roger, these embryos can last for decades.
00:42:28.200
So when people pay, they pay likely thousands and thousands.
00:42:31.640
I mean, I saw one woman paid $20,000 for her treatment.
00:42:39.920
And the Supreme court basically ruled that because there is a law in Alabama already,
00:42:44.900
uh, which protects, uh, life at all stages, including, uh, you know, just at their fertilization,
00:42:52.560
And, and it's a very important thing because president Trump immediately comes out, uh,
00:42:58.120
and says, look, while we love pro-life, I'm the guy that put three Supreme court justices
00:43:04.060
on the bench to overturn, uh, Roe v. Wade, not to do it, but that did it.
00:43:08.980
Um, you know, I, I'm the person who did this and IVF supports life.
00:43:15.520
Uh, I mean, it was like an hour or two, he puts out a statement saying that, uh, the
00:43:20.140
Alabama legislator must act immediately to protect IVF in Alabama.
00:43:26.320
And yesterday, um, Kay Ivy, the governor of, uh, of Alabama signed a law which will protect
00:43:36.340
Now, Roger, this is important because the state of the union is tonight.
00:43:39.800
And one of the main guests of the Biden administration in this state of the union, which I can't wait
00:43:45.460
to see, as you pointed out, um, is going to be a patient of IVF in Alabama.
00:43:52.160
So you see, even though the Republicans in Alabama, uh, stood with president Trump voted
00:43:57.920
and passed the law to protect IVF that will take effect this week, they moved as quickly
00:44:02.760
as the legislative process process could possibly move to protect the IVF treatments, the people
00:44:07.960
doing the treatments, and yet it's still going to be used by the left, uh, tonight at the
00:44:13.780
And you can guarantee that president Joe Biden will attack, uh, those of us who are pro-life,
00:44:19.140
even though, uh, in this instance, uh, the Republicans in Alabama have done exactly what
00:44:25.460
the people have asked, exactly what the media has asked.
00:44:28.780
And this desperation, Roger, it highlights to me a lot of, uh, problems with the overall,
00:44:34.080
uh, narrative for the Democrats heading into the 2024 election.
00:44:44.600
Troy Smith of slingshot.news, uh, and, uh, joining us here to close the program is my
00:44:59.900
Roger, thank you for having me on once again on the Rolling Stones.
00:45:03.700
I want to mention, uh, something that Trace, uh, Troy said at the very end of that segment,
00:45:08.660
that they are so desperate that they're making up lies.
00:45:11.660
I want to talk about someone who's been making up a bunch of lies.
00:45:14.960
I'm not sure what you talked about on the previous segments, uh, but Nikki Haley has been making
00:45:21.340
Uh, she, she lied about not raising the gas tax.
00:45:24.780
Then she turns around and says, we should go and raise the gas tax.
00:45:29.320
Nikki Haley has been lying for a very long time.
00:45:32.440
Uh, she, she lied about name verification on social media, lied about raising social security,
00:45:38.140
lied about saying that Clinton is an inspiration.
00:45:40.180
Uh, and then most recently has lied about supporting whoever the nominee would be,
00:45:50.060
She is a fraud and her political future is over.
00:45:53.140
In my opinion, uh, fortunately, as you know, she finally got out of the race yesterday.
00:45:58.980
However, um, without a graceful exit, uh, without an endorsement, uh, of president Trump, it's
00:46:05.780
amazing how many reporters today want to ask me whether the party is badly split.
00:46:12.680
In fact, in those states where primaries were closed to just Republican voters, Donald Trump's
00:46:20.060
And even if you look at states like New Hampshire, where non-Republicans were allowed to vote in
00:46:25.400
the Republican primary, among Republican primary voters, actual party members, uh, he got about
00:46:34.480
Uh, one of my questions, uh, is an obvious one.
00:46:37.100
By the way, that's a great looking, uh, lid you got there.
00:46:39.520
I must say, uh, uh, uh, Alex, uh, uh, we had Rich Barris on earlier, uh, the people's pundit,
00:46:46.860
a pollster, one of the pollsters in the country that I respect, uh, like few others, uh, and
00:46:52.500
he sees in his data, uh, uh, and in the national data that president Trump is making serious inroads
00:47:00.020
among voters, uh, who are your age, uh, and those who are just slightly, uh, older than
00:47:07.620
Um, this is something I know you've spent a lot of time thinking about, talking about,
00:47:12.400
planning about, and I know you're active in a program to win the votes of younger voters.
00:47:21.060
And I believe very, very firmly and strongly that president Trump will get a lot of the
00:47:28.840
Um, he just recently came out with sneakers, uh, for generation Z-er such as myself, which
00:47:34.880
I myself did buy a pair, uh, of the white ones, uh, looking forward very much to wearing
00:47:41.700
Um, no, I believe, Roger, that president Trump will get the generation Z-er vote.
00:47:47.400
Uh, and the reason why is because we've come to a point in the United States of America
00:47:52.240
where we've realized there is so much corruption that is happening in the Democrat party.
00:47:56.940
There's so much corruption that is happening all over the place.
00:47:59.780
And this corruption wasn't happening when president Trump was in office.
00:48:04.460
It wasn't happening the way that it is today, uh, when president Trump was in office.
00:48:11.980
I believe that, you know, one of the organizations that you and I have been to before Turning Point
00:48:16.520
USA is helping, uh, young people understand the reality of what is actually going on today
00:48:22.700
and why we should vote, uh, the correct way, which is the right way.
00:48:27.180
Uh, the voting conservative, uh, voting for president Donald J. Trump, I believe he's going
00:48:34.620
Uh, and my generation is going to make that happen.
00:48:37.660
Now, I'm very interested in these, uh, kicks that you just bought.
00:48:41.440
Uh, let me be rude and ask, um, how much did you have to pay for them?
00:48:50.020
Um, uh, obviously, uh, since we pay you nothing, you can't be paying them out of the great funds
00:49:04.460
It was a pre-order, uh, but I'm looking forward to receiving them probably in August.
00:49:08.840
Uh, this really does speak to what a marketing genius, uh, Donald Trump is.
00:49:14.160
When I read online that he was going to be going to sneaker.com and he was going to be,
00:49:19.880
uh, releasing his own line of sneakers, I said, what, what in the world is this?
00:49:25.760
But now I recognize, uh, that just culturally, uh, among many younger constituents and certain
00:49:32.820
ethnic constituents, uh, this is a very popular idea.
00:49:36.260
And then I read that the sneakers sold out almost immediately.
00:49:42.600
So you have gotten yourself a true collector's item, something that, uh, uh, that, uh, you're
00:49:49.500
going to be able to pass on to your grandchildren.
00:49:53.240
Uh, Trump's understanding of the pop culture, uh, has always been one of his strongest suits.
00:49:59.220
I mean, he's, he's not, uh, uh, a blow dry by the book politician.
00:50:06.980
I consider him a citizen who got into politics as opposed to ever viewing him, uh, as a citizen.
00:50:14.740
But in this particular case, uh, the sneakers turn out to be, uh, a stroke of brilliance,
00:50:23.000
And that was the first thing that I thought is he knows what is actually going on in my
00:50:27.580
He, you know, he's always understood, uh, the people because, you know, obviously he's
00:50:32.880
Obviously he owns, you know, one of the greatest empires in the United States history, uh, but
00:50:38.760
he's worked with regular people, uh, all over the place.
00:50:42.220
So he understands what regular people want, what regular people need, whether it be construction
00:50:47.220
workers or generation Zers, such as myself, he understands us.
00:50:53.720
And, uh, it was one of the greatest marketing tools, uh, that I've ever seen in my life.
00:51:01.560
Alex, tell people when and where they can see your daily show.
00:51:09.080
You can find me on Rumble, uh, go type in the Alex Stone show, the Alex Stone show, not
00:51:15.640
to be confused with the Alex Jones show, uh, the Alex Stone show is where you can find
00:51:21.260
me, Apple podcasts, Spotify, but preferably Rumble, uh, please like share and subscribe.
00:51:31.120
Thank you to, uh, Alex Stone, my adopted nephew for joining us today, uh, in the segment we
00:51:39.360
All right, folks, uh, uh, we want to remind you before we depart that we are brought to
00:51:51.400
The Stone Zone literally could not survive without your loyal patronage at mypillow.com.
00:52:01.580
You can support, uh, us here at the Stone Zone and what we do five days a week.
00:52:07.200
Uh, but you can also, uh, support, uh, one of the country's leading patriots, uh, advocates
00:52:13.600
for free speech and election integrity, Mike Lindell himself.
00:52:18.420
Now, if you thought that, um, mypillow.com was just about pillows, well, then you haven't
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Uh, I've talked, uh, at great length about the dog beds, the pet blankets, uh, the men
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and women's, uh, terrycloth bathrobes, great favorite of mine.
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Uh, and of course, they're the legendary sheets, uh, the, uh, the bath towels that, wow, here's
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Uh, there's a money back guarantee on all of the great products at mypillow.com.
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So please take a moment now, go to mypillow.com.
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And when you do use promo code stone, promo code stone, there you have it.
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Mrs. Stone and I will be most grateful for your support.
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Uh, it is, uh, the principal way that we finance the stone zone.
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We know many, many people in alternative media and conservatives urge you to use their promo
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But as for today, please go to mypillow.com and use promo code stone.
00:53:38.180
I would ask you also to please subscribe to us.
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Uh, we are at, uh, rumble.com slash Roger stone rumble.com slash Roger stone.
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That way you won't watch miss any of the stone zone.
00:54:00.420
A man who's gone through hell, but he's kept going and he's smart and he's strong and people
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Not everybody, but people love him and respect him.