The Tucker Carlson Show - BREAKING： Netanyahu’s Terror Attack on Lebanon Destroys Trump’s Ceasefire. Tucker Reacts.

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00:00:20.100 Last night at 6.32 Eastern Time, right in the middle of dinner, Donald Trump sent out a truth post,

00:00:26.280 his version of Twitter in which he announced a ceasefire with Iran. Here's exactly what he said.

00:00:34.980 This would be one hour and 28 minutes before the total destruction of Iran that he'd been

00:00:42.320 promising the use of the implied use of nuclear weapons or some other weapon of mass destruction,

00:00:46.680 a weapon powerful enough to eliminate an entire country in one night, as he said. So that that's

00:00:52.340 what people were expecting to see. That's what he promised to deliver. And instead, this statement.

00:00:58.900 Subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the complete, immediate, and safe opening of

00:01:03.940 the Strait of Hormuz, I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two

00:01:09.140 weeks. We've already met and exceeded all military objectives and are very far along with the 0.86

00:01:14.400 definitive agreement concerning long-term peace with Iran and peace in the Middle East. We received

00:01:19.680 a 10-point proposal from Iran

00:01:21.600 and believe it is a workable basis

00:01:23.160 on which to negotiate.

00:01:24.720 Almost all the various points

00:01:25.900 of past contention

00:01:26.800 have been agreed to

00:01:27.520 between the U.S. and Iran,

00:01:28.880 but a two-week period

00:01:30.060 will allow the agreement

00:01:31.180 to be finalized and consummated.

00:01:33.520 On behalf of the United States of America

00:01:34.900 as president,

00:01:35.840 and also representing

00:01:36.600 the countries of the Middle East,

00:01:37.900 it's an honor to have 1.00

00:01:38.740 this long-term problem

00:01:40.100 close to resolution.

00:01:42.560 Well, amen.

00:01:43.800 Cold water on a hot day.

00:01:45.420 The nation, the world,

00:01:46.700 breathed a sigh of relief

00:01:48.220 and particularly pleased

00:01:49.080 were people who have fought in previous wars,

00:01:52.460 people in the GWAT generation,

00:01:54.660 people who are conspicuously absent

00:01:56.060 from the Fox News analysis of this war,

00:01:58.380 people who know what it is to fight wars.

00:02:00.420 Because one of the things that people who fight wars

00:02:02.600 or see them up close learn

00:02:03.900 is that almost anything is better than war.

00:02:07.600 Even a step back or a step down,

00:02:10.480 even giving up something you want while bitter

00:02:13.000 is better than total war

00:02:15.280 because there is nothing worse in this life

00:02:18.460 than total war. And that's a generational lesson. Every generation that experiences total war

00:02:26.120 learns that lesson. And so the most eloquent writing about why war is bad is written by

00:02:33.120 people who have seen it and experienced it. Every big war produces a generation of writers

00:02:38.560 calling for no more wars. And then, predictably, inevitably, cyclically, the next generation

00:02:45.240 forgets that lesson, maybe the key lesson of existence, and the cycle of wars continues.

00:02:52.360 So last night seemed like a victory for the United States, even though it was,

00:02:59.080 strictly speaking, probably a loss. Now, the president didn't explain what's in this 10-point

00:03:03.180 plan, this proposed agreement that he'd received from the government of Iran, but we know

00:03:09.420 roughly what was in it. There have been a bunch of versions of it floating around. Are they real?

00:03:15.240 10 point, 15 point, it's impossible to know. But the big picture points are known. And first among

00:03:23.440 them is the current government of Iran will stay in power. That's the first point. So regime change

00:03:29.500 did not work. Everyone admits that now, including the Israeli government with whom we're embarked on

00:03:34.200 this adventure. Everyone understands that there is no way to dislodge the current government short of

00:03:40.320 nuclear weapons. And so when this ends, whenever it does, the regime, the Ayatollahs, the terror 0.92

00:03:48.580 regime, as they say on Fox News, will be in place. And that's not a win. That's a loss. 0.57

00:03:55.400 U.S. military bases in the region have been destroyed, certainly badly damaged.

00:04:00.580 From some of the military, U.S. military personnel have withdrawn, retreated. That's not good.

00:04:07.240 That's not a display of power.

00:04:09.780 That's a display of weakness.

00:04:10.820 So there's no way to spin that.

00:04:11.940 That's a loss.

00:04:14.060 This war has cost hundreds of billions of dollars

00:04:17.700 of U.S. dollars, taxpayer dollars.

00:04:22.360 That money comes from debt,

00:04:25.220 from selling our debt, our treasuries to other countries.

00:04:29.600 So that's a loss.

00:04:30.720 That's a big loss.

00:04:32.160 Commodities prices have risen,

00:04:34.360 not as dramatically as they might

00:04:36.000 if this were to continue, but they've risen a lot. That's a loss. That's a tax on people who

00:04:39.960 buy things in the United States. And then, of course, Americans have been killed. It's not

00:04:45.140 clear how many, because there's an awful lot of lying about it, but it's a substantial number,

00:04:51.000 more than a dozen, and maybe much more than that. We don't know yet. We will know at some point.

00:04:57.200 So Americans have died. America's gotten poorer. America's become weaker demonstrably.

00:05:04.100 We can't open the Strait of Hormuz, which is the overriding objective of this world.

00:05:09.260 We can't do it by force.

00:05:10.900 That's been proven.

00:05:12.500 And the regime that we described as illegitimate, this crazed theocracy, these Stone Age people, 0.96

00:05:19.400 are going to, when this is all over, remain in control of Iran. 0.97

00:05:25.160 So again, those are losses, just objectively. 0.52

00:05:28.420 And yet, and here's the point, a ceasefire would still be a win for the United States because war, total war, is just that bad.

00:05:37.440 It's so bad that even absorbing some humiliation and some measurable losses is still better than that.

00:05:47.980 And most people understand that intuitively.

00:05:50.300 You don't need to be ideological or interested in geopolitics to understand that Americans getting killed, the country going bankrupt, commodity prices wrecking the global economy.

00:06:00.880 The uncertainty itself is a cost.

00:06:03.420 You don't know what the future holds, so you can't plan for it.

00:06:05.980 All of this is much worse than what we'd be getting with an agreement that diminishes up to some extent because it's very obvious we could be still further diminished and further wounded by this.

00:06:17.260 so that was the state of play at 632 the president announces what is objectively speaking not a win

00:06:26.620 and yet most reasonable people accept it as a win because relatively speaking that's a win

00:06:35.400 a ceasefire is a good thing and anyone who doesn't think it's a good thing has to explain

00:06:41.100 why it would be in america's interest the tangible interest of the united states to continue this

00:06:45.640 to what objective? What is the goal? No one has ever really explained what that is.

00:06:49.780 Degrade Iran, change the regime. What does that mean? Open the Strait of Hormuz. How? Tell us

00:06:56.020 how. There's not one person in the Pentagon who can figure out how to do it. These people wage

00:07:00.480 war for a living. Not all of them are stupid. Some of them are pretty smart. They can't figure 1.00

00:07:06.060 out how to do it by force, so they would have done it already. What's your plan? Well, there's

00:07:10.380 no plan, of course. So anyone who opposes the ceasefire is not an ally of the United States,

00:07:16.400 but an opponent of American interests, maybe even an enemy. So with that in mind, it's worth

00:07:22.560 assessing what happened to the peacefire. Well, it seemed to last a very, very short time. Now,

00:07:28.400 not in name, no one is saying there's no peacefire, ceasefire, but certainly in practice, because

00:07:34.400 very shortly, within hours of the president announcing this, Israel, our unmentioned

00:07:43.780 partner in this war, decided to bomb civilians in Beirut, Lebanon.

00:07:53.880 Bomb civilians, apartment blocks. That's not anti-Israeli hyperbole. That's not blood libel.

00:08:02.120 That is measurably true because there's video of it, a lot of it, because Beirut is one of the

00:08:11.660 greatest and most civilized cities on the planet. It's not Yemen. Lots of people have been to Beirut. 0.96

00:08:18.240 Beirut is also, by the way, the capital of the only country in the Middle East whose president

00:08:22.740 is a Christian. The president of Lebanon has always been a Christian since the founding

00:08:29.920 of the country over 100 years. So in some basic sense, this is a Christian country,

00:08:38.560 certainly a Christian-led country. And it's not a primitive country. It's probably one of the top

00:08:43.960 three most beautiful places in the world. But it's also one of the most civilized places in

00:08:49.660 the world. And for many years, the southern portions of the country have been controlled

00:08:57.460 controlled or at least influenced by a Shiite militia group, which has become in effect the

00:09:05.500 government of those parts of the country called Hezbollah. You've heard of Hezbollah. I think the

00:09:09.120 U.S. Congress has declared it a terror organization. No one's defending Hezbollah. But Hezbollah's 0.93

00:09:15.460 main, the main thing to know about Hezbollah is that they are sworn opponents of Israel. And

00:09:20.060 that's why you know their name. That's why it's not just a regional problem in the Levant for you.

00:09:24.640 it is an ever-present slogan that people are shouting at you all the time, Hezbollah, 0.90

00:09:28.820 they're bad. Well, why are they bad? Well, they're against Israel. That's why. 1.00

00:09:32.520 But also the people, apparently, who perpetrated the 1983 barracks bombing

00:09:36.440 against U.S. Marines and killed almost 300 American Marines. The United States was in

00:09:44.120 Lebanon at the time. Why was the U.S. there? Well, because Israel had invaded Lebanon. And

00:09:47.800 so the Reagan administration, in response to what Israel did, decided to get involved on behalf of 0.65

00:09:53.520 our closest ally, and almost 300 American Marines were murdered by Hezbollah.

00:10:01.320 Not blaming Israel for that. Apparently, they had advanced knowledge of it. That's pretty clear. 0.99

00:10:06.840 It's been documented. But Hezbollah did it. They did it, not Israel. But we were there because 1.00

00:10:11.940 of our alliance with Israel. Fact. So Hezbollah has, for many years, been active in the southern 0.50

00:10:22.420 parts of the country, south of the now famous Latani River, on the border of northern Israel.

00:10:28.160 So it's a concern for Israel. But Beirut is a separate question. Beirut is a Mediterranean

00:10:32.360 city that is not controlled by Hezbollah. In fact, it's filled with Christians. They define

00:10:38.120 the life of Beirut. They may not be the majority, but they're in charge. And they certainly have 1.00

00:10:44.960 defined it culturally. And Israel is bombing apartment blocks in Beirut, Lebanon.

00:10:54.260 You know what the name of the military operation was? Eternal darkness. Israel named this operation

00:11:03.800 killing hundreds of civilians in Lebanon, mostly in Beirut, eternal darkness.

00:11:09.760 because like why even pretend anymore eternal darkness by the way is mentioned

00:11:14.440 extensively in the new testament it's a euphemism for hell and that's exactly

00:11:21.600 what israel brought to christians in lebanon today here's a video of it

00:11:39.760 It's all great.

00:11:41.760 Right.

00:11:43.760 Let's go.

00:11:45.760 There's one.

00:11:47.760 Nice.

00:11:49.760 Nice.

00:11:51.760 Good.

00:11:53.760 Good.

00:11:55.760 Good.

00:11:57.760 Good.

00:11:59.760 Good.

00:12:01.760 Good.

00:12:03.760 Good.

00:12:05.760 Good. 1.00

00:12:07.760 looking a little bit like gaza and of course that's the point of operation eternal darkness

00:12:23.120 but what does it look like on the ground again these are civilians who were murdered by the

00:12:29.780 israeli military using american weapons and american tax dollars to do it in order to stop

00:12:36.760 a ceasefire that the American president

00:12:38.660 happily announced to the great relief

00:12:41.300 of the American people.

00:12:42.440 All of it stopped by Operation Eternal Darkness

00:12:46.240 targeting civilians.

00:12:48.520 But if you were a civilian on the ground in Beirut,

00:12:50.700 what did it look like?

00:12:51.400 Well, we have this video, which is distressing. 1.00

00:12:54.380 This is a little Lebanese girl

00:12:55.560 walking out on a sunny day with her father

00:12:57.380 in a residential neighborhood in Beirut

00:13:00.780 when the Israelis come in and level the city. 0.78

00:13:05.300 Here's what it looked like. 0.98

00:13:06.760 Operation Eternal Darkness, that's for sure.

00:13:33.020 So the net effect was to end the ceasefire.

00:13:35.240 Again, it hasn't been announced.

00:13:36.760 But the Straits of Hormuz are closed once again, not open, totally closed, apparently.

00:13:42.740 And the Israelis are continuing to blow up Christians, murder Christians, and other civilians in Lebanon.

00:13:52.300 So this afternoon, the administration announced, well, there's been some confusion here.

00:13:56.860 An agreement that Israel would stop destroying Lebanon was not part of the agreement with Iran.

00:14:05.760 And so clearly they thought it was. 0.55

00:14:07.760 They thought somehow the United States would get Israel under control as its patron. 0.84

00:14:12.080 We never promised to do that. 0.78

00:14:14.100 So this was all a mistake, and we'd love to negotiate the terms, but exclusive of Israel's behavior. 0.89

00:14:19.740 Israel's going to do what it's going to do. 0.71

00:14:21.600 And, you know, they may kill more little girls in Beirut, but that has nothing to do with the bilateral we'd like to have with you. 0.70

00:14:28.820 Well, it raises a couple really interesting questions that need to be resolved before we can fix this.

00:14:34.560 and fix our country? And the first is, why would you ever go into a war with another country when

00:14:40.260 you don't have aligned interests, when you don't have the same goals? Israel is a whole separate 0.85

00:14:45.480 goal from ours. Israel would like to leave Iran, a husk, a civil war between various ethnic groups, 0.99

00:14:55.660 just a bleeding wound and therefore permanently weakened. They don't want a coherent nation state 0.93

00:15:00.320 in Iran because that wouldn't help them. The United States, of course, doesn't want that

00:15:06.100 because you can't open the Straits of Wormuz unless you have someone in charge of the territory

00:15:10.100 of Iran because then pirates will close it. Anyone with mines or drones can close the strait. You

00:15:16.600 need a central government in Tehran to keep the strait open. And the United States, being, of

00:15:21.900 course, subject to international commodity prices like everybody else and the big economy, doesn't

00:15:26.080 want that. It doesn't want the refugee crisis in Europe and the U.S. that will inevitably result 1.00

00:15:31.080 if Israel gets its way. The United States went in there with goals that weren't exactly clear. I 0.55

00:15:36.240 don't know, somehow ending the nuclear program because it's such a threat, even though U.S.

00:15:40.640 intelligence had repeatedly concluded that it was not an imminent threat. They didn't have a

00:15:46.220 nuclear weapon. They didn't have ICBMs. It just didn't exist. It's the WMD story from 2002,

00:15:52.720 redux. But the idea was to apparently brush them back a little bit and let them know that you can't 0.63

00:16:01.420 do anything crazy in the region. That's not Israel's goal. So the first mistake was lashing

00:16:07.220 ourselves to another country with separate goals. But more immediately, the mistake would be if you

00:16:14.380 want to wrap this up with a ceasefire and a peace agreement, you would, of course, tell Israel to get 0.87

00:16:21.500 on board because Israel is a tiny, insignificant country with an infinitesimally small population 0.91

00:16:28.360 and economy that only exists because you protect it and pay for everything. 0.94

00:16:34.860 Israel is your client state. This is like taking orders from your housekeeper, 0.88

00:16:37.840 which you would never do. Why would you do that if you had self-respect?

00:16:41.120 So the first thing you would do if you were sitting down to come to terms with your opponent, 0.86

00:16:47.380 this big country, Iran, that you haven't been able to beat militarily, would be to tell Israel, 0.87

00:16:52.080 hey, we're suing for peace. We're going to get this done. You knock it off. 0.99

00:16:56.580 But the U.S. didn't do that. This administration did not do that. In fact, apparently, according

00:17:01.020 to the Israelis, they never even consulted Benjamin Netanyahu. They did not tell him

00:17:04.900 that we are right in the cusp of ceasefire talks. Why? Because they were worried that he would do

00:17:12.460 what he did with Operation Eternal Darkness, Operation Hell, and scuttle the whole thing

00:17:18.280 by doing something crazy like bombing apartment buildings in Beirut, Lebanon.

00:17:25.900 So apparently, getting Israel under control so the United States could save its economy and the

00:17:31.580 lives of its troops was not even on the table. Like the one thing we know we're not going to do

00:17:36.220 is tell the israelis to behave and that's why there is in practical terms in effect if not name

00:17:43.280 no ceasefire right now the one that everybody in the united states desperately wants

00:17:48.580 so the question is and it is the question unfortunately

00:17:54.300 why can't the united states get its proxy its client state it's effectively its employee

00:18:03.780 Israel under control? Why is that the one thing that's never on the table?

00:18:10.800 That's the question. It's the question that Joe Kent, one of the top US Intel officials,

00:18:16.660 asked when he resigned a few weeks ago. We got into this war at the urging of another country,

00:18:23.320 Israel. The war did not go well. Now we can't get out of the war because the behavior of that

00:18:28.640 same country, Israel. Why? Why can't this president or any president say no to Israel? 0.98

00:18:36.780 And we have a right to know why. It's not just because we love Israel and it's the only democracy

00:18:42.140 in the Middle East. And if it is, then our leaders are dumber than we thought they were. But it's 0.99

00:18:45.720 probably not that. Because they understand perfectly well how bad this is for the U.S.

00:18:50.660 And there are, believe it or not, a lot of people in the White House who care about the United

00:18:55.900 States. People with power in the White House. They're not all, whatever you think they are,

00:19:00.020 zombies doing BB's bidding. Some of them can see very clearly where this is heading.

00:19:05.240 It's heading toward a nuclear strike by Israel on Iran. That's obvious.

00:19:11.180 And that would be a world historic disaster. It's also clearly terrible for the American economy,

00:19:16.180 for the American people, not even to mention the Americans who will die in numbers if this 0.73

00:19:21.880 becomes a land war. So there are people working really hard, really late trying to fix this to

00:19:29.140 get a peace, even one that diminishes us, where we have to take some lumps. They are doing that.

00:19:34.280 That's the only reason we got to where we were yesterday is because people in the White House,

00:19:37.860 taking no credit for it whatsoever, were working to end this because it's bad.

00:19:46.260 But those people predictably were undercut. Our country was undercut by Israel. 0.95

00:19:51.040 and there's apparently nothing we can do about it. 0.99

00:19:54.280 So again, why is that?

00:19:57.020 And once this is over, even before it ends,

00:19:59.800 every American has a right to know

00:20:01.580 why does this tiny country have so much control

00:20:03.920 over our government?

00:20:05.580 Is it consent?

00:20:06.620 It doesn't look like it.

00:20:09.080 Now, Joe Kent said point blank when he resigned.

00:20:12.580 By the way, the day he resigned,

00:20:14.180 he retained highest level security clearance.

00:20:16.260 They tried to tell you, oh, he was a leaker.

00:20:18.140 He was under investigation.

00:20:19.000 It was a lie.

00:20:19.760 They admitted it was a lie.

00:20:20.680 He wasn't under investigation by the FBI.

00:20:23.180 Untrue.

00:20:24.980 And you know what's untrue?

00:20:26.040 Because he held his security clearance

00:20:27.220 till the day he left the building.

00:20:29.440 So there's no intelligence in the U.S. government

00:20:32.300 that Joe Kent couldn't see.

00:20:34.220 None.

00:20:36.020 He was one of the most informed people in the world.

00:20:39.580 And his conclusion was,

00:20:41.220 there's something weird going on here.

00:20:43.780 And one of the clues is the Butler shooting,

00:20:46.200 the shooting in the summer of 2024

00:20:49.420 during the presidential election where President Trump was shot in the ear by a gunman a little

00:20:55.900 over 100 yards away on the roof of a building called Thomas Crooks. And according to Joe Kent,

00:21:00.400 who would know, that investigation was closed before it pursued every possible lead. We can be

00:21:10.820 fairly confident that Thomas Crooks pulled the trigger. We cannot be confident at all that he

00:21:14.800 acted alone. And of course, we can't know because that investigation was shut down. That's what he

00:21:19.080 said. And Joe Kent, who you can dismiss as a wacko or a traitor, but you can't say he doesn't 0.99

00:21:25.160 know what he's talking about. And you can't say the Trump administration didn't trust him

00:21:29.120 with all available U.S. intelligence until the day he left. You can't say that because they did.

00:21:35.980 He has said out loud, he thinks the failure to investigate the Butler shooting, the shooting of

00:21:42.660 our now president, Donald Trump, and why wouldn't they investigate that, by the way? That alone is

00:21:46.780 Baffling.

00:21:48.120 Why wouldn't they release all the information they have about Thomas Crooks?

00:21:50.960 They haven't.

00:21:51.620 Why?

00:21:52.260 If it was a lone gunman, why don't tell us all you know?

00:21:54.420 But they haven't.

00:21:55.420 Why?

00:21:56.540 He believes that is connected to the control that Israel has over the United States government,

00:22:00.560 the demonstrable control.

00:22:01.680 He said that.

00:22:03.120 He also pointed to a couple of pretty shocking violations of the president's personal security

00:22:08.780 by the Secret Service.

00:22:09.700 They allowed things to happen that never happen around a president.

00:22:12.880 Now, maybe they were mistakes.

00:22:14.600 You want to think they were.

00:22:16.840 But who's been fired at the Secret Service over those mistakes?

00:22:20.340 No one that we're aware of.

00:22:21.560 There's not been a wholesale reordering of the Secret Service.

00:22:25.580 Their job is to protect the president, the elected president of the United States.

00:22:30.080 And you do that not just because you love the president, but because our entire system

00:22:33.960 hangs on the idea that the people get to choose their president and he can't be removed by force.

00:22:42.360 That's democracy.

00:22:43.440 If you could just take out the president by force, then how is democracy real?

00:22:48.060 If people choose someone that larger forces don't like and they kill them, then you don't have a democracy.

00:22:53.080 So protecting the life of the president is essential to the functioning of our system.

00:22:58.760 And yet, on at least two occasions, they've proven that they haven't been able to do that.

00:23:04.660 And yet, has there been an investigation into that?

00:23:08.300 Has anyone been fired over that?

00:23:10.260 No.

00:23:10.520 now those of us who don't work there have no real idea what that means but someone who just worked

00:23:16.840 there until the other day joe kent said i think that may be related to our inability to say no

00:23:24.940 to israel now maybe joe kent's a total wacko in which case why was he head of the counterterrorism 0.96

00:23:31.000 center for the trump administration that's another question but let's just say he's a total wacko 0.96

00:23:34.880 But what's the answer? The facts, the known facts, have never been explained. And at this point, watching Israel once again, not for the first time, hardly for the first time, short circuit American diplomacy, the expressed will of the American president elected by the rest of us to have some foreign country of 9 million people to say no, exercise veto power over our president.

00:24:01.540 short-circuit our interest. This is bad for us. We're doing it anyway because Benjamin Netanyahu 0.57

00:24:08.160 wants to. You see that enough times. This is, again, not the first time we've seen this.

00:24:13.340 It's not the 10th time we've seen this. We've seen it generationally. You have to ask,

00:24:18.000 what is this? And you have to find out. And you have to air it publicly because it has to end.

00:24:25.180 We cannot be a free and prosperous country until we are a sovereign country. What does that mean?

00:24:31.540 Our leaders elected by us have to be able to make decisions in our interests.

00:24:36.860 Not to the exclusion of everyone else, you don't have to end other people's civilizations in order for your own country to prosper if it doesn't work that way.

00:24:43.800 But you have to put your people's best interests first, or it's not a legitimate system.

00:24:50.300 And if there's another country in an arrangement with another country that's preventing you from doing that, you have to fix it.

00:24:57.240 And then there are also moral questions.

00:24:58.920 If that partner, your closest ally, the only democracy in the Middle East, is killing kids in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Iran, and doing so without apology, if it's committing war crimes every single day for years with your money and your weapons, at some point you're implicated in those crimes.

00:25:20.260 And you have to stop that too.

00:25:21.720 It's all bad.

00:25:22.640 There's no upside.

00:25:23.320 Where's the upside?

00:25:23.880 and so the united states has to and hopefully the first thing we do when and if this war is resolved

00:25:31.160 is detach from israel not declare war on israel or treat israel as an enemy they may treat us as

00:25:37.860 an enemy as they have before when they tried to sink the uss liberty an american naval vessel

00:25:44.000 a surveillance vessel they treated us as an enemy we don't have to treat them as an enemy however

00:25:48.960 And we shouldn't. But we should treat them like we treat every other country as an ally, but with restrictions and reservations and red lines.

00:26:00.060 No, you can't act against our interest. And this distancing should begin with a total end of aid of any kind, military or economic, to Israel by the U.S. government.

00:26:12.820 And people who love Israel, some of whom are pretty successful, can send all the money they want to Israel, and that's fine.

00:26:19.620 But the U.S. government should send not one more dollar to Israel and not one more piece of military material to Israel,

00:26:29.700 not one more fighter jet or bomb or missile defense system or small arm or ammunition of any kind. 0.51

00:26:37.400 Because Israel is aggressively acting against our interests. 0.73

00:26:41.140 And so to continue to arm and finance them, their generous welfare state, for example, or their military, defend their nation, is not only contrary to core American interests, it's just masochism. 0.67

00:26:56.900 Watch us hate ourselves as we fund a country that's killed more Americans than most other countries have.

00:27:03.540 That's just a fact, and not just on the liberty. 0.63

00:27:05.720 every war that Israel has pushed us to join has resulted in dead Americans. 0.55

00:27:14.260 And the fault lies ultimately with our leaders who are going along with this. 0.80

00:27:17.080 It's their fault first. 0.91

00:27:18.080 It's not the Israelis' fault. 1.00

00:27:19.220 It's our fault. 1.00

00:27:20.380 But they're implicated in it.

00:27:21.700 This relationship has resulted in a lot of dead Americans.

00:27:25.660 A lot.

00:27:27.480 And it's time not to end it, not to set up an adversarial relationship, 0.50

00:27:31.200 but to set up a healthy conventional relationship where Israel can pay its own bills and fund its

00:27:39.200 own military and act within the constraints imposed on it by its own economy and population.

00:27:43.660 That's what normal countries do. Most countries live with neighbors that don't like them with

00:27:49.240 whom they have testy relationships, but they make accommodations because they have no choice.

00:27:53.500 There's no country in the world that acts with total impunity because it knows

00:27:57.480 a much larger country will backstop it no matter what it does. That just doesn't exist in the

00:28:02.600 natural world because it's not natural. It's grotesque. And it's terrible for the United

00:28:07.600 States. And now it's obvious. And by the way, unless our lawmakers, unless the U.S. Congress

00:28:12.100 restrains this relationship and changes its nature, there's going to be political turmoil

00:28:16.480 in this country. So no mas, it is really clear. Israel's pursuing what it thinks its own interests

00:28:23.980 are, but those are not the same as our interests. Now, one of the problems with changing that

00:28:31.240 relationship is, well, you're going to have to deal with Israel's agents and advocates in the

00:28:38.460 United States. And there are many of those. There are many of those. And by the way, just to be

00:28:43.360 completely clear, they're not all Jewish. In fact, most of them aren't. This is not about Judaism. 0.97

00:28:48.700 It's about blind support for a nation state called Israel to the extent that it harms our interests. 0.81

00:28:58.240 And you saw that on full display in the last 24 hours. 0.83

00:29:01.220 The president excitedly announces a ceasefire, a pause in the fighting in a war that cannot result in American victory,

00:29:10.260 but only in further American defeat and degradation and ultimately in bankruptcy and possibly a nuclear war. 0.94

00:29:15.920 So this is a great thing. Immediately, advocates for Israel appear on Fox News telling you that this is not acceptable. This is a loss. This is cowardice. Here's 83-year-old former general Jack Keene on Fox telling you that this is disappointing, that the killing has paused just for a moment. Here he is. 0.97

00:29:39.740 So there's a lot wrapped up in the deal.

00:29:42.880 My preference would have been to keep the war going as leverage to make that deal.

00:29:47.160 But we are where we are now.

00:29:48.780 And I really do think if the deal blows up, it comes down to Carg Island and forcing either take control of Carg Island and take control of the distribution of oil or destroy it and force an economic collapse.

00:30:06.320 I mean, what do you say to something like that?

00:30:10.520 Most people watching him are like, oh, he was a general.

00:30:13.080 He was a general.

00:30:14.660 He knows what he's talking about.

00:30:16.020 He's probably war-gamed this whole thing out. 0.91

00:30:17.920 He knows what it is to take Karg Island.

00:30:21.060 Talk to anyone who actually has been to Karg Island

00:30:23.180 or understands the geography of the Persian Gulf.

00:30:26.720 How do you take Karg Island?

00:30:28.980 Is General Jack Keane of Fox News the first person ever to think,

00:30:31.740 hey, we should take Karg Island.

00:30:32.840 Then we control the commodity flow through the Persian Gulf.

00:30:35.520 That would make us powerful.

00:30:36.780 No, he's not the first person to think of this.

00:30:39.260 Cargill Island has actually changed hands quite a few times through history.

00:30:42.040 Various empires have controlled it because geographically, it's a critical piece of real estate.

00:30:47.540 And it's extremely hard to control at this point.

00:30:50.460 Or once again, we would already take control of the oil.

00:30:54.700 Oh, really?

00:30:55.360 Hadn't thought of that.

00:30:56.780 How would we do that?

00:30:58.040 And of course, no one ever asks a follow-up question.

00:31:00.220 How exactly would you do that?

00:31:01.220 What would it cost us to do that?

00:31:02.240 how long could we hold it? How far from mainland Iran is Karg Island? Is it within, I don't know,

00:31:08.040 artillery range? Have the Iranians thought this through too? Do they see Karg Island through 0.98

00:31:12.840 which 90% of their energy moves as a key piece of real estate? Have they taken extraordinary

00:31:18.640 steps to defend it? What are those steps and how do we mitigate those? No, not a thought.

00:31:25.860 Just take Karg Island, take control of the energy flows, collapse their economy. Well, 0.98

00:31:29.880 then what happens? You collapse their economy and then what? Does that open the Straits of

00:31:34.140 our moves? Where does that leave us? Where does that leave the seven countries that

00:31:38.360 face Iran? No, no thought to that at all. Just do it. And by the way, it's kind of cowardly not to

00:31:44.480 do it. They're children. And not only they're children, we know they are because they have

00:31:51.100 a decades-long track record of bad decisions. Not just bad, but disastrous. These are the very

00:31:57.580 same people who've gotten the United States into every pointless conflict really since the Second

00:32:02.780 World War. How many have we won? Zero. Just a fact. A fact that you admit with sadness if you

00:32:08.700 love the United States, as most of us do. None of this has worked. And if it has, tell us how.

00:32:14.780 Just explain what the United States got out of any of these conflicts. With accelerating absurdity,

00:32:20.800 each one more absurd than the next, you can understand you don't want China to control

00:32:25.180 South Korea? Okay. Let's do the Incheon landing. You could sort of understand why you wouldn't

00:32:32.260 want Ho Chi Minh sweeping into Saigon, which is now called Ho Chi Minh City. 0.81

00:32:38.740 Couldn't you really understand why we invaded Iraq? Not at all. And this war makes the least

00:32:43.640 sense of all if you view it through the prism that most Americans would, which is, is this good for

00:32:48.560 us? No, obviously not. And there's no way to achieve it. And you know, there's no way to

00:32:53.300 achieve a military victory, meaning a return to the status quo of February 27th, because they

00:32:58.140 never explain what those means might be. Because they have no idea because they're children.

00:33:04.280 And so really, it's incumbent on the rest of us to increase our self-respect and stop giving

00:33:10.160 airtime or any attention at all to people with a long proven track record of failure

00:33:14.660 and absurdity and silliness. Listening to 83-year-old generals who couldn't find

00:33:19.060 Carg Island on a map pretending that they're experts on the subject because they're not.

00:33:26.400 And again, they've gotten it wrong again and again and again. Would you take real estate

00:33:31.340 advice from a homeless person? No, because they're not good at real estate. So they're

00:33:36.820 homeless. Like this is nuts. And so for this government to function, people who've gotten

00:33:44.480 it wrong again and again and again cannot be persist in positions of leadership doesn't mean

00:33:50.680 they have to be imprisoned they'd like to imprison their enemies but in a free country don't imprison

00:33:55.700 people because of disagreement they're saying out loud anyone who disagrees with us should be in jail

00:34:00.080 because they're authoritarians but it means not allowing them in government why because they don't

00:34:09.820 have the best interests of the country at heart. That's why. Obviously. Or they wouldn't be

00:34:16.280 calling for military action that is by definition fruitless in Sisyphean. It doesn't work.

00:34:23.100 Who does that help? Not us helps Israel. That's the whole point of the program. 1.00

00:34:29.480 So why do they still have positions of authority in the U.S. government? Well,

00:34:34.380 that's a really interesting question. But we could start, the great sorting could begin

00:34:39.240 by disqualifying anyone from government service

00:34:42.300 who holds a second passport.

00:34:43.980 That's really simple.

00:34:45.760 Not just an Israeli passport,

00:34:47.180 but a Belgian passport, a Sierra Leonean passport,

00:34:49.560 any other passport. 0.57

00:34:50.800 If you're a citizen of another country, 1.00

00:34:52.740 obviously you shouldn't be running our country 1.00

00:34:54.380 because you have by definition dual loyalty.

00:34:57.000 You can just leave and go to your other nation.

00:35:01.100 No normal country would allow that.

00:35:04.580 Why would you allow that? 0.78

00:35:05.640 Doesn't mean people with dual citizenship can't live here, 1.00

00:35:07.540 though there's an argument for that too. A strong argument for that. Pick a country. 0.86

00:35:13.400 If you don't like it, leave. That's fair. You can't use this as a place to park your money,

00:35:19.360 a place to hide out or hang out until you get in trouble and then flee to your other country.

00:35:23.720 Like why would any nation allow that? Most don't. We do. We got to stop it. But you could begin with,

00:35:29.320 no, you can't serve in government if you've got two passports. Sorry. Period. At any level. DMV

00:35:33.580 up to DOD? No. And if you've served in a foreign military, come on now, especially when the U.S.

00:35:42.720 is at war, you can't serve in the U.S. government if you've worn a foreign uniform. Of course not. 0.82

00:35:50.980 You can't hold elective office if you fought for somebody else's country, because by definition,

00:35:56.500 you have fought for aims that are not the same as ours. In fact, they may be in opposition to

00:36:02.560 hours. You may have fought against what's good for the United States. Certainly, if you serve

00:36:07.860 in the IDF, you fought against what's good for the United States, knowingly or not. You probably

00:36:11.180 didn't mean to, but you did. You shouldn't go to jail for that, but you can't be allowed to work

00:36:17.140 at, say, the Pentagon. But right now you can. And by the way, there are IDF officers working out of

00:36:23.880 the Pentagon because they have an office within the Pentagon, as they do at CIA and Langley.

00:36:27.540 A foreign government has offices in our critical executive branch headquarter buildings.

00:36:35.300 That's just not healthy. 0.99

00:36:37.740 That's crazy.

00:36:39.400 And it cannot be allowed a single more day.

00:36:42.340 Why would it?

00:36:43.780 Oh, that's hateful.

00:36:45.120 Of whom?

00:36:46.920 Would Israel allow that? 0.98

00:36:48.960 Would they allow Americans?

00:36:51.760 I don't know, to open an office in the Demona complex?

00:36:56.740 No.

00:36:57.540 because they're not insane, but we are.

00:37:01.400 So we should stop that immediately.

00:37:04.440 But the main problem with neocons,

00:37:07.740 of all religions, just to be totally clear,

00:37:12.100 is that not only are they not on board

00:37:17.700 with the interests of the majority of our country,

00:37:20.080 they work in opposition to those interests.

00:37:23.120 wars you don't need mass migration into this country and the west and that would include

00:37:31.440 canada and new zealand and australia western europe and the united states that migration

00:37:37.240 which i think even liberals would acknowledge has not been good for anybody

00:37:41.140 the fact has destroyed these countries because a country a sovereign country has control over

00:37:46.900 borders. You can't just change the population in a generation. You can't do that. That's all been

00:37:53.160 abetted by the neocons, 100%. Now, why is that? Well, that's another question. But the whole

00:37:58.680 thing is dark. The owner of OnlyFans is one of the biggest contributors to APAC? Tell me how that

00:38:05.620 works. Don't know the answer, but it's not good. It's not healthy. It's not good for the United

00:38:11.860 States. None of it's good. APAC's not good. OnlyFans is not good. So maybe it's not surprising

00:38:16.160 there's some nexus there. But above all, what is degrading to our country, bad for our strategic

00:38:23.560 objectives, and just rotten for the nation is the lying, the nonstop lying, the refusal to be

00:38:32.760 straightforward about your aims. What are you actually arguing for? You never know. Because

00:38:37.980 lying is totally acceptable among neocons, completely. You always cloak your real objective.

00:38:44.280 If you saw this in the 12-day war, oh, no, no, we're just going to get rid of their nuclear 0.72

00:38:48.200 program because it's an imminent threat to the West. 0.62

00:38:50.820 Okay, it's an imminent threat.

00:38:53.040 And some people piped up and said, I don't know, this looks like the opening salvos in

00:38:56.680 a regime change war. 1.00

00:38:57.900 Oh, shut up, racist. 1.00

00:39:00.980 Of course, it turned out to be. 1.00

00:39:03.340 But nobody ever apologized.

00:39:04.860 Well, actually, you're right.

00:39:05.680 You caught us the first time.

00:39:06.720 And now we know because we're in a regime change war or an attempted regime change war.

00:39:11.600 Yeah, just keep lying.

00:39:12.520 Just say whatever it takes.

00:39:14.280 whatever's expedient to get to whatever the goal is,

00:39:16.780 but you never know what the goal is

00:39:17.740 because they'll never tell you.

00:39:20.040 It drives people crazy.

00:39:21.300 It makes people conspiratorial.

00:39:23.080 That's the other problem with it.

00:39:24.780 So many conspiracy theories.

00:39:25.960 Well, there happen to be quite a few conspiracies.

00:39:28.480 What's a conspiracy?

00:39:30.260 Well, it's a group effort to achieve something

00:39:32.360 whose goal is never stated in public.

00:39:33.860 That's what a conspiracy is.

00:39:36.340 And there's obviously a lot of that.

00:39:37.880 Here's one example.

00:39:38.600 This is from Fox News yesterday.

00:39:41.120 One of its top shows.

00:39:42.380 here are two neocons talking about what they think the u.s we should do next in iran hopefully if we

00:39:50.300 can get arms in the hands of the people they'll take over i'll give you the last word we have

00:39:53.760 about 30 seconds that that to me is very key i've been talking about that in multiple appearances

00:39:59.360 here and on radio we have to arm the people because if we're not going to do regime change

00:40:06.140 they need to have the ability to do it reagan did it in afghanistan he did it in nicaragua he

00:40:12.300 He did it in Honduras.

00:40:13.400 He did it in Angola.

00:40:15.260 Donald Trump can do exactly the same thing somehow, someway.

00:40:19.840 Those people need to be able to get armed and need to take their future into their own hands.

00:40:26.600 It's like they can't even hear themselves.

00:40:29.240 I mean, the other problem is, and one of the reasons you have to laugh at all the conspiracy talk about the neocons is a lot of them are not super bright.

00:40:37.360 They don't really know very much.

00:40:38.760 So here you have that guy just said, Reagan did it in Afghanistan and Nicaragua.

00:40:45.860 So what happened?

00:40:47.360 Well, let's see.

00:40:48.440 When Reagan did it in Afghanistan, he sent weapons to a group of freedom fighters called the Mahajideen, Islamic warriors.

00:40:57.140 This was back in the 80s when we were on the side of Islamic extremism against the Soviets.

00:41:02.540 And now you fast forward 40 years and who's in charge of Afghanistan?

00:41:05.840 Well, Islamic extremists, the Taliban.

00:41:08.760 So Nicaragua, 40 years ago, we sent arms to the Contras.

00:41:12.540 A lot of people supported it, including me, by the way, to be clear.

00:41:15.880 Because the Soviets were making inroads in Nicaragua.

00:41:19.480 There were a funding group called the Sandinistas, led by a man called Daniel Ortega.

00:41:23.880 And we were going to regime change Daniel Ortega.

00:41:27.400 So 40 years later, who runs Nicaragua?

00:41:29.440 Anyone got Wikipedia?

00:41:30.300 Oh, Daniel Ortega.

00:41:32.700 So whether you support it or not, it didn't work.

00:41:35.660 It didn't work.

00:41:36.740 You're pointing to those successes, really? 0.95

00:41:39.960 Countries that 40 years later are run by the Taliban and Daniel Ortega,

00:41:44.880 and that's the argument for sending arms to the opposition?

00:41:50.540 But what's so revealing about that clip is how the actual point,

00:41:57.340 the object of the strategy is never stated.

00:42:00.360 In fact, it's hidden.

00:42:01.980 And it's hidden in the most sinister way in the language of idealism and ideology. 1.00

00:42:08.120 We have to end Islamism. 1.00

00:42:10.800 We have to stop the threat of the terrorists. 1.00

00:42:13.760 We have to bring freedom to the poor, benighted people of Iran. 1.00

00:42:18.480 When, of course, the actual aim is Israel's aim, which is chaos. 1.00

00:42:22.280 The whole point of this from an Israeli perspective, it's not an attack on Israel, by the way. 0.95

00:42:26.620 I mean, it makes a kind of evil sense. 0.97

00:42:29.900 If you want to eliminate a threat,

00:42:31.440 you can't kill everybody,

00:42:32.460 even with nuclear weapons.

00:42:33.860 But what you can do

00:42:35.220 is set them at war with each other.

00:42:37.440 And this has been the way 0.95

00:42:38.540 that Israel has conducted 0.93

00:42:39.900 asymmetrical warfare

00:42:41.160 since its founding.

00:42:42.900 You sow chaos among your opponents.

00:42:45.240 You get them to fight each other. 1.00

00:42:47.300 And that's the goal for Iran, 1.00

00:42:49.480 which is just a little bit

00:42:51.020 over 50% Persian.

00:42:52.740 Not everyone who planned the war

00:42:53.980 seemed to know that

00:42:54.600 or advocated for the war

00:42:55.560 seemed to know that,

00:42:56.340 but the Israelis know it.

00:42:57.380 And they know that the goal is to stoke ethnic conflict and to some extent religious conflict in Iran.

00:43:05.880 Most Americans have no idea that there are up to 5 million Christians in Iran.

00:43:10.560 They have no clue. 0.96

00:43:12.420 But of course, the Israelis know that.

00:43:14.080 There are lots of Jews in Iran.

00:43:15.720 The Israelis bombed one of their synagogues yesterday.

00:43:17.780 Why?

00:43:18.660 Unclear.

00:43:19.900 Maybe just the love of bombing things. 1.00

00:43:23.240 But it is a multi-ethnic country with religious minorities. 1.00

00:43:27.380 And countries like that are ripe for internal division. 1.00

00:43:32.920 So the point of the exercise is not to get weapons in the hands of freedom fighters.

00:43:38.780 Who would those be?

00:43:40.100 How do we identify an Iranian freedom fighter? 0.68

00:43:43.360 No, the point is to stoke an endless civil war, which once ignited are famously hard to end. 0.99

00:43:49.260 That's the point.

00:43:50.040 How does that serve our interest?

00:43:51.020 Well, of course, it doesn't. 0.98

00:43:52.120 Israel which seems to have an interest in destroying Europe certainly a desire to destroy 0.76

00:43:57.900 Europe prime minister said it himself Rome is our real enemy still angry about 70 AD 2,000 years 0.95

00:44:05.000 later his words not mine so clearly Israel wants to harm Europe they've said so they've helped do

00:44:12.620 it that would definitely harm Europe and the West how does it help the United States well not at all

00:44:18.380 But here you have two prominent analysts on Fox News telling you that for the sake of the Iranian people, we need to do this.

00:44:25.980 Really?

00:44:26.840 The same people who are being bombed, whose infrastructure, civilian infrastructure is being destroyed?

00:44:32.700 The same people who will starve to death if this keeps up?

00:44:35.060 We're really doing this for them?

00:44:37.080 How is starving me to death in my interest?

00:44:40.180 Are you really trying to help me?

00:44:42.700 No, of course not.

00:44:44.600 How much better it would be? 0.82

00:44:46.380 how much more Christian would it be just to say what you're trying to do out loud to tell the 0.61

00:44:52.520 truth for once and then the rest of us could assess it we could argue against it on good

00:44:56.500 faith terms we could probably even accept it even if we disagreed with it if we knew what it was

00:45:02.580 but you never know what it is with liars with people who are committed to saying whatever it

00:45:09.360 takes to get their goal achieved without explaining what the goal is so that mode of

00:45:15.740 communication, of operation, that whole worldview is totally corrosive to our country. It is totally

00:45:21.920 immoral. Lying is bad. And because lying is now the currency of government, thanks to people like

00:45:28.820 the people you just saw on the screen, some of us have lost track of this. So you can't accept

00:45:33.320 anything the government says at face value to parse every statement. Well, maybe this means

00:45:37.420 that, or it's a bank shot intended to achieve this. You have no clue. That is so bad for your

00:45:43.620 society. Living in a hall of mirrors gives you vertigo after a while. Those kind of people

00:45:53.020 should have no role in any decision the U.S. government makes going forward, period. And if

00:45:59.440 they support arming the freedom fighters of Iran, let them do it themselves. If they support 0.94

00:46:04.780 overthrowing the regime, let them fly there themselves and attempt to do that, if it's that

00:46:09.400 important. But for not one more day should people like that have access to the levers of power in

00:46:16.000 this country, and they should absolutely not be allowed to write our legislation. This country

00:46:21.640 needs to free itself from the influence of a foreign power and restore freedom to its own

00:46:26.280 citizens. The freedom to criticize a foreign country, to boycott it if they so choose,

00:46:32.320 to speak their conscience without the fear of being arrested or accused of a thought crime.

00:46:36.300 people like that have made this country increasingly authoritarian where people who

00:46:42.260 are born here no longer feel free to say what they really think the last election was supposed

00:46:46.380 to end that instead it accelerated it how did that happen it's not even clear but it did happen

00:46:51.960 and so the first thing we need to fix when this is all over is the system that produces disaster

00:46:57.580 in the first place not just a change of presidents that won't be enough we've just proven it's not

00:47:02.980 enough. You need to change the system that acts on not just this president, but every president

00:47:07.960 to produce results that are terrible for the United States. That's the first thing we need

00:47:13.200 to do. The second thing we need to do is figure out how exactly Iran was able to do this. How 0.64

00:47:18.220 did that happen? It'd be fun to go back and look at the tape from cable news in the months

00:47:24.300 preceding this war and just clip the portions where they describe what Iran is like. All experts

00:47:30.960 on Iran, not a Farsi speaker among them, but know a lot about Iran. This is before anyone had heard

00:47:35.420 of Karg Island. They didn't know the population. They knew nothing about the country, except that

00:47:41.460 it was a primitive country. And so when the president said, we're going to bomb them back

00:47:46.300 to the Stone Age, most Americans must have thought, well, I thought they were already in the Stone Age.

00:47:50.540 Well, who knows what age they were in, Stone Age or medieval?

00:47:53.180 who knows what their caliphate was really like it turns out that their military power and their

00:48:03.500 economic power we vastly underrated vastly they've done and this is noted with real sadness

00:48:13.040 much better than anyone expected including the israelis apparently no one saw this coming 0.75

00:48:20.640 so how did this happen how did this primitive country that shoots protesters in the street and 0.81

00:48:28.360 beats up women because they're women or whatever they were telling you on tv how did that country 0.79

00:48:32.920 chase away u.s aircraft carriers that aren't anywhere near the coast how did that country 1.00

00:48:38.120 shoot down some of our most advanced aircraft warthog blackhawks etc how'd they do that

00:48:43.600 we have gotten as a society into a very bad and self-destructive habit of not allowing

00:48:51.740 questions like that, honest questions about our own failures. And the reason that's bad

00:48:57.000 is because unless you understand what you did wrong and repent of it, promise not to do it

00:49:01.400 again, you tend to keep doing it. And yet in this country, for some reason, the reasons are pretty

00:49:07.720 obvious. We have allowed the people who make those mistakes to browbeat the rest of us

00:49:13.800 into silence. And whenever someone pipes up and says, well, wait a second, we're spending a

00:49:18.600 trillion dollars a year on this military and we can't get our aircraft carriers within striking

00:49:22.860 distance of the coast of Iran because why? Shut up, Islamist. Were you siding with Iran? Well, 1.00

00:49:31.520 no, I'm siding with the United States. But what's the answer? We pay for this military. We were told

00:49:36.580 we had total dominance of the skies, but then they shoot down our aircraft. Apparently a lot

00:49:41.620 of them. We can't know because everyone lies about everything, but apparently a lot of them.

00:49:46.620 But one is shocking. How did they do that? Is it worth having an aircraft carrier in 2026?

00:49:55.860 I don't know. But the people who build aircraft carriers certainly have an interest in telling us

00:50:01.980 we need them. During the Ukraine war, at the point, maybe a year or two in, when the public

00:50:07.540 was starting to ask, wait a second, our airports are filthy. Our schools don't work. I have to

00:50:14.420 work two jobs just to pay my bills, and I still can't afford a house. I started to add those

00:50:19.140 people, which is most people, started to ask the question, why are we sending all this money to

00:50:23.980 Ukraine? And by the way, where is Ukraine? And Putin bad, okay, Zelensky's Jesus got it, but

00:50:28.760 Like, what has this got to do with us?

00:50:31.600 And why is it good for us?

00:50:32.700 And the answer that we all received from members of Congress, Republicans in the Senate and Democrats was it's a great deal.

00:50:39.920 Actually, it turns out this is like congressional accounting.

00:50:43.160 Actually, that money, which seems like it's going to a foreign country, actually comes back to us because it goes to American defense companies, Raytheon and the rest, Lockheed.

00:50:54.420 And so what we're really doing is funding American jobs. This is an industrial policy, really. And so it's a kind of sleight of hand where we seem like we're being generous, but actually we're benefiting.

00:51:08.380 and there may be some truth in that by the way it's not a totally i mean you can assess whether

00:51:14.260 that's like a the kind of country you want to live in where the only real manufacturing base is

00:51:18.560 weapons probably not but that's where we are and it's not a crazy argument to make

00:51:25.020 on a practical level i mean there are military contractors in every congressional district or

00:51:33.300 always were. And so it does produce American jobs. But it also sets up an incentive for those

00:51:41.860 companies and the lawmakers who fund them to maintain the status quo. And the status quo is,

00:51:49.160 of course, always going to favor larger, more expensive weapon systems because those are the

00:51:54.680 most profitable. A system like that will never invest meaningfully in, say, drone technology

00:52:01.520 because there's not enough money in it.

00:52:03.440 But you watch the war in Ukraine

00:52:05.060 and you watch the 40-odd days of the war with Iran

00:52:08.340 and you realize, well, wait a second,

00:52:10.540 maybe we should have invested more in drone technology

00:52:13.800 or taken a big picture look

00:52:15.680 at what the United States would need

00:52:17.220 to project military power beyond its shores 0.87

00:52:21.020 and maybe aircraft carriers

00:52:23.340 and the whole suite of weapon systems,

00:52:25.460 the most expensive in the world,

00:52:27.480 aren't really the way to project military power

00:52:30.560 because it doesn't work. And they can be defeated or at least constrained at a thousandth the cost

00:52:37.760 by less technologically advanced countries like Iran. But that would be a very obvious 1.00

00:52:43.340 conclusion. In fact, that was the conclusion of any smart, non-aligned person for the last five 0.97

00:52:47.680 years. Is it really worth having an aircraft carrier if you have to open the Straits of 0.97

00:52:52.400 our moves? Maybe not. Well, apparently not. But we have been unable to have that conversation

00:52:58.760 because the vested players in the whole economic chain coming from the United States Congress

00:53:07.520 through the Pentagon and out to, well, the entire economy of Northern Virginia

00:53:11.580 has discouraged it. So we've continued to do the same thing the same way, except at a higher volume

00:53:18.000 for a very long time, and now we are seeing the results, which are embarrassing.

00:53:23.520 And we actually can tell ourselves we're the strongest military in the world,

00:53:27.180 and you want to be the strongest military in the world because that's great. 0.98

00:53:31.660 But if you are the strongest military in the world, why can't you force Iran to open

00:53:35.900 the bottleneck at the end of the Persian Gulf and let vitally needed commodities out to the

00:53:42.980 rest of the world, including you? Like, if you're so powerful, why can't you get it done?

00:53:48.000 And so what we've learned is we're really not as powerful as we said we were and probably as we thought we were.

00:53:53.180 And that's bad for us, but it's also dangerous because it invites aggression.

00:53:58.480 We need to fix that by being honest about what just happened.

00:54:02.080 No more lying.

00:54:03.340 We should learn something from what is happening right now.

00:54:06.840 And that process will require the people who made bad decisions to be punished for them.

00:54:11.380 not imprisoned or killed,

00:54:15.080 but certainly humiliated

00:54:17.200 because they deserve it.

00:54:18.800 When was the last time

00:54:19.220 a public official

00:54:20.060 was ever really humiliated?

00:54:21.200 Even the ones who get fired,

00:54:22.300 get fired with like a statement

00:54:23.280 like we thank you for your service.

00:54:24.320 You're so great.

00:54:24.900 You're doing something more important.

00:54:27.080 How about you committed dereliction?

00:54:28.900 You did a terrible job. 0.98

00:54:31.240 You don't have to kill yourself 0.68

00:54:32.280 or anything,

00:54:33.460 but you can't work here again

00:54:34.540 and we're not going to endorse you.

00:54:36.280 We're not going to pass you on

00:54:37.180 to the next employer

00:54:37.940 with like a fake letter

00:54:38.780 of recommendation.

00:54:39.520 Oh, you did such a good job.

00:54:41.380 No, you were terrible. That's why he fired you. Only in a system like that, a true meritocracy,

00:54:46.780 can you have excellence. But that's the opposite of what we have. No one is ever punished. No one

00:54:50.580 is ever criticized. No one ever takes the fall. No leader is ever humiliated. Only the people

00:54:56.340 beneath him who carried out his orders. That's the definition of a perverse system that produces,

00:55:02.780 not surprisingly, perverse results like the ones we're experiencing now. So that's the next thing

00:55:07.260 we need to do. Be honest about how Iran, this primitive country, just humiliated us. 1.00

00:55:12.220 That's not anti-American. That's pro-American. We love our country enough to want to know, 0.99

00:55:16.780 and we need to know. And the final thing we need to learn from this particularly ugly experience

00:55:23.880 is that you have to have leaders who care about you. Because that really is

00:55:32.340 the basis of good governance. It's not brilliance or superior planning. Those are important

00:55:39.840 sometimes. But what really matters is intent, is the will to protect and serve the people you've

00:55:50.340 been elected to protect and serve, to put at the very center of your agenda, the people who put

00:55:55.620 you there, the people in your country. A love of those people gets you a lot farther than the best

00:56:01.560 funded government program ever made. It's a lot like parenthood. You don't have to know a lot,

00:56:07.900 but you have to be totally committed. And the commitment has to derive from the love that you

00:56:12.160 have for your children. And if that is the case, you'll be a pretty good parent, good enough for

00:56:15.940 sure. And if you don't have that, it doesn't matter how much money you have, your kids are

00:56:20.640 going to be screwed up because you will do a bad job. So it's about intent. How do you divine

00:56:25.700 intent? How do you know what a person wants? Well, by the way he behaves, you judge the tree by the

00:56:31.540 fruit. And so any leader whose focus is outward rather than on his own country is going to be a

00:56:40.180 bad leader. And this is the core problem with maintaining a global empire. You are never going

00:56:46.420 to find a leader. You will never find an American president who is more interested in governing

00:56:52.340 America than he is in governing the world. And honestly, would you be? What job would you rather

00:56:59.560 half. King of the world? The world. King of the world. Colossus. Astride. Here I am. I'm king of

00:57:06.100 the world. I'm making all the decisions. I'm going to eliminate your civilization for breakfast.

00:57:10.520 I'm going to overturn your economy for lunch. And tonight we may have Operation Eternal Darkness.

00:57:16.220 I mean, there's an appeal to the megalomaniac, to all of them. It's not just this one. It's all

00:57:21.280 of them. That is irresistible to leaders. I run the world. Now, running America, by contrast,

00:57:27.960 is hard and messy, and you know a lot of the people, you're going to make them mad.

00:57:32.860 You go to war with the Houthis, people don't know what a Houthi is. They're never going to meet a

00:57:36.260 Houthi. There's no cost to you whatsoever in the short term. But let's say you just ran America, 0.94

00:57:41.880 how'd you like to fix Baltimore? Be responsible for Gary, Indiana, or Detroit, or Los Angeles,

00:57:48.720 or New York? These are hard problems. How do you fix American schools? They're totally useless.

00:57:54.340 no one's even trying. And the reason they're not trying is because they're totally distracted. 0.99

00:57:59.480 Well, because it's hard. Of course, the solutions are not obvious, but they're not even being

00:58:05.000 attempted anymore. And this is a generational thing. 30 years ago, people still talked about

00:58:11.100 our schools. We got to think of a way to make our schools better. School choice. Sound like a good

00:58:15.800 idea. Did it work? I don't know. No one ever mentioned it again. Nobody cares. Our leaders

00:58:20.620 don't care. They don't care. And that's why the country is withering. Because people who don't

00:58:29.520 care are inattentive. Sometimes they're actually a little bit hostile. Sometimes they're very

00:58:34.820 hostile. But no matter what their disposition, they're never going to save you because they

00:58:45.040 don't care enough to save you. No leader who really loved his country, no matter what they

00:58:51.760 tell you, would have embarked on this disaster. They kind of nod to caring. We're going to save

00:58:59.120 you from the nuclear threat of Iran. Was there a nuclear threat from Iran? Shut up, hater. 0.95

00:59:06.640 Was there a nuclear threat? Shut up. Okay. Okay. There's no even real attempt to tie what they do 1.00

00:59:13.320 outside our borders with most of our money to any benefit to you whatsoever, because that's how

00:59:20.960 little they care. And that actually has to change. And it's not just a matter of the looming debt

00:59:25.200 crisis, which is real, or the fact we spent hundreds of billions on a fruitless war that

00:59:30.520 diminished us. It's not even about that. It's bigger than that. Coming out of this, we have

00:59:36.200 to demand, regardless of party or even ideology, leaders who have a gut level love and concern for

00:59:42.180 the American people. That is the test. That's the acid test for holding office in the United States.

00:59:47.440 You have to care. We can probably devise ways to measure whether you care. But if you don't care,

00:59:54.340 you're going to have to join the neocons in doing something else.

00:59:59.060 So that's what we've learned so far. For where we're going and whether this ceasefire,

01:00:04.360 assuming it even is a ceasefire, will hold, we want to talk to someone called Alistair Crooks,

01:00:08.980 who is not famous in American media, by and large,

01:00:14.500 but is outside the United States,

01:00:16.480 I think regarded as one of the most experienced

01:00:19.260 and wisest observers, mostly non-aligned observers,

01:00:22.500 of what's happening in the world,

01:00:24.040 particularly in the Middle East.

01:00:26.160 He spent most of his career as a British diplomat,

01:00:28.960 intelligence officer.

01:00:30.880 It's not an endorsement of British intelligence,

01:00:32.560 which has been much discredited

01:00:35.380 in the last 25 or 30 years.

01:00:38.980 But certainly one of the most knowledgeable governments for most of its existence.

01:00:43.720 I mean, they managed the world and they sent people out into the world who really understood how things worked at a granular level,

01:00:49.560 not just a 40,000-foot level, but understood the languages and the cultures and the geography of the nations that they were trying to influence.

01:00:56.640 So he has spent his entire life outside his own country and has actually personally negotiated ceasefires in the Middle East and knows it very, very well, lived for years in Beirut.

01:01:08.140 And so we asked him, where do you think this is going?

01:01:11.900 Here's the conversation.

01:01:13.500 Mr. Druck, thank you very much for joining us.

01:01:16.600 Do you believe that the ceasefire that the president of the United States announced last night can hold?

01:01:25.160 It's very tenuous.

01:01:26.820 At the moment, it's very tenuous.

01:01:28.600 It's already eroded somewhat.

01:01:31.280 And I'm not sure that the contradictions in the tensions, the underlying tensions within the ceasefire can hold.

01:01:42.380 It may be that it's already eroding.

01:01:45.720 Israel has been attacking Lebanon.

01:01:48.980 There is some dispute as to whether Lebanon was supposed to be a part of the ceasefire or separate to it.

01:01:57.880 Initially, it was definitely a part of it.

01:02:01.280 Now, Mr. Netanyahu is saying it is not, and it seems to be that that has been confirmed by the press secretary at the White House.

01:02:11.260 But the Iranian reaction to that is that they have an equation.

01:02:17.420 Either there's a ceasefire for all, or there's a ceasefire for nobody.

01:02:22.080 I know that what's happening in the Majas at the moment in the parliament in Tehran is that the security committee there are saying, OK, if Hezbollah is a target and is being targeted and being killed at the moment and it is not part of the C-SPAR, 0.60

01:02:42.580 Well, maybe we'll consider that the whole of Israel is not part of the ceasefire and will continue to target there.

01:02:52.000 So it is it is quite tenuous. 0.63

01:02:55.040 And I understand that in the last period, the Iranian authorities have refused to allow ships to pass through homeboys.

01:03:05.360 They've stopped at the moment. 1.00

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01:04:54.180 Can you describe what you referred to at the beginning as the underlying tensions

01:05:01.400 in the ceasefire, the misaligned interests that may torpedo it in the end?

01:05:06.540 What are they?

01:05:08.760 Well, I would explain it not in terms of just sort of literal what is in and what is not in.

01:05:16.820 I would say from the Iranian perspective, the purpose of what's happened,

01:05:24.480 or at least the attack that took place on Saturday last, we killed the supreme leader, 0.82

01:05:33.120 that has given an opportunity to change the situation, to break the paradigm.

01:05:41.120 They want to get out of the cage.

01:05:44.000 What do I mean by the cage?

01:05:46.520 Well, it's not the sort of physical cage of Gaza where there are fences and drones lying over.

01:05:53.280 But nonetheless, it's been 74, 75 years of caging by, if you look at a map, you'll see all around Iran, every side, it is hemmed in by military bases, all around.

01:06:10.240 It is hemmed in by sanctions, by tariffs, by economic siege on the country, by political, even cultural isolation.

01:06:24.300 And they see this, therefore, not as an attempt to, not as a process that will lead, if you like, to new deterrence, a new form of, we'll go back, there'll be a ceasefire, then it'll end, and then there'll be another round of military.

01:06:43.220 they want an end to war they want this to bring about an end to the war and they believe they're

01:06:52.880 on a strong position in fact i know this will be seem counterintuitive to to many of the audience

01:06:59.840 but actually iran has emerged stronger from this month of war than it did at the end of the 12 day

01:07:09.860 war last June, in many ways.

01:07:13.820 Firstly, because in economic terms, they are

01:07:17.920 benefiting. For example, in the last

01:07:22.020 first month of this war, they have earned

01:07:25.260 more revenue from their oil sales, from

01:07:29.940 tankers passing from Karg Island through the Hormuz

01:07:33.940 and being sold. In this one month, they have

01:07:37.660 and double what they've ever earned in previous years in one month and just to take as an example

01:07:47.260 for example on sunday um they loaded five tankers in karg island at the terminal there

01:07:55.900 that was 7.7 million barrels of oil and they earned 850 million dollars in one day from that

01:08:06.860 So the revenue from, if you like, potential revenue from hormones will be enormous.

01:08:14.900 It would be probably in a year just under a trillion dollars on the basis that they're charging at the moment.

01:08:22.740 They're not only charging that, but they're also demanding it in one, which is part of the bigger, if you like, plan they have, which is to break the sanctions.

01:08:34.280 Not only to break the hormones, but by insisting that carcass have to be charged in yuan, the Chinese currency, and not in dollars, to get permission to pass through Bar Qasem Island and Jarad Island. 0.83

01:08:55.380 And they are then escorted by the Iranians through the elements of the other. 0.66

01:09:02.080 But in the other aspects, which will be seen strike probably listeners as even more surprising, is that their casualties are probably less than in the 12-day war.

01:09:13.440 Why?

01:09:14.720 Well, because what they learned from the 12-day war is evacuate all public buildings that you possibly can.

01:09:24.060 perhaps leaving hospitals but everything else empty state buildings security buildings

01:09:32.380 educational building all are empty and so the attacks which are focused very much on those

01:09:41.180 have caused far fewer casualties you know there may be a caretaker or someone who unfortunately

01:09:47.980 is killed in these and of course civilians being killed i mean many civilians being killed

01:09:54.060 where residential areas have been attacked.

01:09:57.060 But on the whole, they have had fewer casualties.

01:10:02.360 And the second thing is that their military is in better shape

01:10:07.060 than it was at the end of the war.

01:10:10.620 First of all, the reason for that is, again, a rather strange one.

01:10:16.260 The Iranians bought a lot of these decoys, 0.75

01:10:18.800 There's huge numbers of decoys from the Chinese that imitated airplanes and missiles and so on.

01:10:27.620 But the Chinese gave them a twist, which was interesting.

01:10:31.560 And I didn't know this before, but they have a heat source. 0.96

01:10:35.480 So when they're picked up by radar or by sensors, it looks real because, you know, it not only looks apart,

01:10:43.880 But it actually emits the heat of a real missile or an airplane.

01:10:51.220 And so, largely, the Israelis and the United States have been bombing decoys. 0.63

01:11:00.320 They've also been trying to bomb the main missile cities. 0.72

01:11:03.340 But if you take a main one like Yaz, it is buried in a granite mountain, 800 meters deep. 0.63

01:11:13.880 really deep and there's sort of concrete and there's a whole railway system underneath those

01:11:19.600 tunnels and railway systems under this mountain and they deliver the missiles on railway trucks

01:11:27.620 and the railway takes it right up to the entrance an airtight door opens it moves to the entrance

01:11:35.220 and the missile is fired, the airtight door comes down and the train withdraws. 0.89

01:11:42.880 Well, the Israelis have what deemed bombing and bombing this, 0.80

01:11:47.060 and the mountain is getting blacker and blacker, but it's not affecting their missiles.

01:11:53.480 And these missiles, and I've made this point many times, 0.83

01:11:57.480 what they haven't understood about the mosaic system that the Iranians started planning for this asymmetric war, 0.51

01:12:05.220 20 years ago, is that they are dispersed across the extent of Iran, which is a huge country 0.76

01:12:12.960 with mountains and forests the size of Western Europe, effectively.

01:12:18.880 And they are buried deep, deep. 0.88

01:12:21.520 That was the lesson that the Iranians learned from the attack on Baghdad in 2003. 0.66

01:12:30.720 They saw how air power could come in and could destroy the command center and the military capabilities of Saddam Hussein at that time, and they decided we have to manage a way that we will not suffer a decapitation strike. 0.57

01:12:49.480 So they implemented this asymmetric role where the leadership is completely dispersed across the country, again, autonomous, if you like, commands.

01:13:05.600 They have their own missiles. The commander has the initiative to fire those, to use troops, and they are completely immune from any cut-off of communications or an assault or a decapitation strike because they have preset plans, sealed plans.

01:13:26.960 Each commander has these sealed plans of what to do if the Supreme Leader is killed.

01:13:33.940 And they tell him what the next proposals are.

01:13:38.620 So it's like a sort of huge retributed machine that snaps into action the second the command is lost.

01:13:49.440 And we'll continue the war. We'll continue with preset plans.

01:13:53.000 And we saw that happen on that Saturday when the Supreme Leader was killed within the hour.

01:13:59.420 Those plans were unfurled and attacks were starting on Gulf states and military, U.S. military bases in the area.

01:14:08.220 So all in all, what I'm saying to you is that, you know, and people I think are being quite surprised at the resilience that Iran has shown in this.

01:14:23.140 And now they're trying to, if you like, leverage this resilience to bring about a major change in the situation.

01:14:35.760 and the iranians have you know some equations that it's best to understand if you want to

01:14:46.120 understand what their position is it's like the one i mentioned about the ceasefire

01:14:52.280 but it is security for all or security for no one prosperity for all in the region

01:15:02.420 or prosperity for no one.

01:15:05.340 If we are attacked, we will move up the escalation ladder accordingly.

01:15:12.120 But the aim is to try and bring about a complete change, as I say,

01:15:18.360 to change the region through the control over the hormones,

01:15:25.340 to change the region away from being a petrodollar region,

01:15:31.360 away from it being, if you like, part of the economic sphere of Wall Street

01:15:43.720 and to try and to move to a different economy in the Gulf area.

01:15:52.040 And also, by insisting on Juan, it is trying, if you like, to change the whole,

01:16:00.000 if you like basis

01:16:02.040 and the whole geopolitical

01:16:04.120 siting

01:16:06.580 of Iran 1.00

01:16:08.060 and for it to come back

01:16:10.320 as a major geopolitical

01:16:12.780 part in the region.

01:16:14.420 That's it essentially.

01:16:15.760 It's probably pretty obvious by now that you definitely

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01:18:26.120 If Iran, from what you've described, 0.86

01:18:28.920 if Iran were to achieve those goals

01:18:31.140 or even the majority of those goals,

01:18:33.680 it would be a major global power,

01:18:36.760 not just a regional power, it seems to me.

01:18:40.180 Yes, exactly.

01:18:42.220 And this is why, I mean, you know,

01:18:45.140 what is happening in Iran and with Hormuz

01:18:49.260 portends a big fit in the global path because already we saw see you know signs of this taking

01:18:59.400 place their demand that every ship passed has got to confirm that it is its cargo is paid for

01:19:07.340 and we're seeing consequentially Russia has already announced that in future any sales

01:19:16.740 Any purchases of Russian oil or gas or products by Europe will have to be in one from now on.

01:19:25.340 That's it.

01:19:26.600 Then you've seen a big European bank, Deutsche Bank, now stopping, if you like, the issuance, so much of their debts in dollars and are issuing underbots.

01:19:39.700 That is, a bond based in either the digital remember or the ordinary remember, and was a huge success.

01:19:49.780 People have been, it's been oversubscribed, people coming back and taking this.

01:19:56.880 So what they're doing is actually, if you like, in a small way, but they're trying to capitalize an economic shift

01:20:06.040 away from the very leveraged financialized economic world which incidentally has been

01:20:18.400 so damaging to America and Europe too because it's prioritized the financialized world at the

01:20:27.180 expense of the real economy and real jobs and it's all about trading and making money by trading or

01:20:35.460 something else but it isn't from making goods no one does that no not enough money in it you can

01:20:42.300 make more money in an hour on the stock markets trading across futures markets and other things

01:20:49.780 so it's also part of if you like that greater project that the Chinese and Russians are

01:20:59.840 engaged in of going back to much more self-sufficient economies

01:21:04.300 that are not just based on financialized products and dealings,

01:21:11.580 but actually produce things for people, produce things for people

01:21:15.340 and therefore contain salaries to people.

01:21:19.260 And they think this is what they need to move towards 0.89

01:21:23.980 and they want to change the Gulf in that direction by persuading them 0.72

01:21:29.840 to deal with iran that they have no choice but they need to deal with iran and they should give

01:21:36.000 up if you like all these big data centers um by amazon and ai centers and should change to a much

01:21:45.280 more simple economy so it's i think it's been clear um from an american perspective since the

01:21:52.640 first days of the war between russia and ukraine that the us dollar as the global reserve currency

01:21:58.000 was in retreat and it was obviously going to change at some point it always was and maybe

01:22:03.080 that could be managed in some way you're describing a very abrupt change i mean if

01:22:08.660 a fifth of the world's energy is settled in chinese currency um that seems like just the end

01:22:15.060 of the dollar is the global reserve currency or maybe i'm overstating it i mean i don't think

01:22:21.820 I don't think that is the aim. I think the aim at this point is to construct enough pay to get leverage over the West to get them to understand.

01:22:35.560 And because it's not just oil and gas are things through hormones, it is also the precursors for equipment, helium and sulfuric acid and all these things that we need for our supply lines.

01:22:52.400 So it's, you know, if there's a parallel, I would say that the sort of second part of it is a parallel to what we've seen in China.

01:23:00.860 When Mr. Trump imposed those tariffs, high tariffs, 155%, China started saying, well, I'm sorry, we're going to impose restrictions on rare earths and important minerals also until you bring down the tariffs.

01:23:18.140 And that was achieved by China by using that leverage to bring about a change in the trading system there.

01:23:28.180 And in a sense, Homo's straits gives the opportunity, particularly if the Red Sea is included, where so much of the world's commodities pass. 0.93

01:23:38.660 And, of course, Ansar and the Houthis are quite capable of controlling that in a similar sort of way. 0.77

01:23:46.860 So yes, it is a change in that direction, but China, I believe, is very careful.

01:23:56.300 I was in China at the end of last year, and I was very much aware that they are cautious

01:24:03.820 because the way they've applied AI in China is not in the way we do it in the West.

01:24:11.280 I was talking to some of the factory owners

01:24:14.780 and he said, look, you know, Alistair,

01:24:17.980 at the beginning of this year,

01:24:20.520 I take a typical factory I employed,

01:24:23.480 it's now 200, one year later.

01:24:27.800 And he said, all of that is because we apply soft AI,

01:24:33.360 you can call it robotics or automation

01:24:35.940 or automatics or whatever,

01:24:38.060 that we applied soft AI for productivity to get our costs done.

01:24:45.140 And our costs are falling, manufactured costs are falling by 2%.

01:24:49.240 And I turned to him and I said, that's terrible.

01:24:54.560 Because, you know, we can never compete with that.

01:25:00.060 You must be aware that's quite dangerous because you are entering a Thucydides point.

01:25:06.560 And because we have caused inflation and you have caused deflation, this is not going to be a very easy thing.

01:25:15.440 So you have to manage your, you know, your thucidity and point with great terror.

01:25:22.020 Otherwise, you end up in a worse conflict with the West. 0.98

01:25:28.460 But the Chinese don't want to push themselves to the forefront, displace the United States and, you know, the special currency, but they could do it.

01:25:38.800 You're right. You could do it tomorrow.

01:25:40.640 For example, when I use WeChat there in China, you know, it has 1.4 billion users on that one platform, 1.4 billion.

01:25:54.060 and you can pay, you can take insurance,

01:25:57.580 you can get a loan, everything you want on that.

01:26:00.780 They could rule that out so easily.

01:26:03.180 I mean, you know, the scale is already there.

01:26:05.300 They could roll it out across Asia tomorrow.

01:26:08.400 But I don't think they want to do that.

01:26:10.620 They're not trying to create a crisis

01:26:13.420 that will affect the whole of the trading system of the world

01:26:16.920 because China depends, you know, on trade.

01:26:20.240 And it doesn't want to break the system,

01:26:22.560 but it wants to gently remove the system

01:26:26.120 in a different direction.

01:26:28.640 The cost of living is already making it hard to live here

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01:26:32.700 Unfortunately, it's likely to get worse

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01:26:43.520 It's understandable, but don't go down that road

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01:27:45.860 You mentioned that Iran, between the end of the 12-day war in June and the start of this war at the end of February, had received quite a few decoys from China.

01:27:59.640 Is that the extent of the military aid that the Iranian government has received from the Xi government?

01:28:07.420 No.

01:28:09.400 But, you know, people say, well, I don't see anything.

01:28:13.200 We don't see it in Iran. 0.88

01:28:15.260 No, because you wouldn't see it, because what they have provided is that the Iranians used to use GPS, and the West found it quite easy to disrupt GPS signals when they wanted to, or to spoof them into thinking it was a different location. 0.66

01:28:36.320 The Iranians had gone on to the Russian system, first of all, but now at the beginning of this period after the June war, they moved into Beidou, the Chinese digital system, which is linked to their satellite.

01:28:56.540 They have a complete satellite system, as you know, over the earth, and we've seen some of the pictures from them, that they're very good.

01:29:07.780 And they also, in the agreement, in the cooperation agreement between Iran and China, agreed that they might have access to the highest grade military quality digital communication system of Beidou.

01:29:25.080 So the satellite system, there are Earth receivers in Iran, the satellite system is linked to that, and the radars are linked through Beidou to a single command post or to each single, if you like, missile city to provide the targeting and the data.

01:29:51.620 And during the first stages of this, they also put one of their intelligence ships,

01:29:57.740 called Ocean One, off the coast, the Persian coast, which was able to intercept communications.

01:30:05.560 It was also able to map undersea.

01:30:08.860 In other words, they could map any Israeli or United States submarines that were operating.

01:30:15.620 All of this was linked, and it's linked in a sort of huge digital map that is available, which gives the targets and it gives the way in which those targets can be attacked, what type of missile can be used.

01:30:31.880 It was used by the Pakistanis in a rather simpler form in their war against India, which the Pakistani pilot didn't have to see its target on the radar because it could see the whole situation, the whole map.

01:30:53.360 We call this in the West the IRS, Intelligence, Reconnaissance, Surveillance.

01:31:00.120 This was the big asset that the United States gave to the Ukrainians, the ability to have an integrated type of targeting and data all in one, all presented even down onto a laptop if necessary, but onto a cockpit or into a missile center. 0.81

01:31:24.360 So what I'm saying is, and there's no confirmation from the Chinese or anyone they keep quiet, 0.73

01:31:31.060 but this time the shoe is on the other foot. 0.97

01:31:36.700 It's the Iranians that have the IRS, the intelligence reconnaissance system available. 0.95

01:31:42.980 It's quite clear. 0.95

01:31:44.320 I mean, you know, I don't have to prove it because, you know, 0.97

01:31:47.740 So when a B-1 takes off from Fairford airport, RAF, in England, the Iranians pick it up within a second that it's taken off and know when they can plot where it's going and what to do about it. 0.61

01:32:04.300 So they obviously have much more sophisticated, if you like, targeting and data management than in the past. 0.87

01:32:14.900 I think the Russians helped, but in a different way, more with drones.

01:32:21.060 You know, the Iranians helped with their drones, the shotgun drones.

01:32:27.000 I mean, the Russians asked for them for use in Ukraine, and they took them, and then they upgraded them. 0.96

01:32:33.880 And now some of that upgrading is coming back to Iran. 0.80

01:32:38.400 Got to see, I think, a Russian.

01:32:40.060 how how difficult would it be for the united states to defeat militarily the iranian regime at this 0.95

01:32:51.180 point oh i i as such i don't think it's possible not in that sense if you mean to destroy their

01:33:00.620 ability to continue a military conflict with Israel and the United States bases in the region.

01:33:11.760 I don't think they can. The Iranians have even buried their construction plans for missiles. 0.92

01:33:19.700 They're not on the surface. And these missiles, they come up, if they're not in a mountain coming 0.87

01:33:26.820 out on the train they come up from silos you know 200 meters deep and they just come straight up

01:33:34.020 out of the silo and then a new rocket a new missile is automatically there's a rotating

01:33:41.940 um if you like um i don't know crumb and it moves the next missile directly it doesn't get exposed

01:33:50.580 It's not out in the open, it's 200 meters underground, and then the airtight door shuts as soon as the missile has left. 0.85

01:34:00.580 I think it would be very, very difficult to defeat Iran in that sense, to destroy its military capabilities, 0.97

01:34:10.100 and it would be even less possible to take control of almost now from Iran. 0.99

01:34:19.740 You have to look at the geography, I mean, and the array of homers to understand why this would just really be a non-starter. 0.95

01:34:30.500 Well, you probably heard a lot about the prime minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, Bibi, on this show and elsewhere.

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01:36:11.280 So if Iranian oil sales, as you described them, are potentially going to bring a trillion dollars U.S. to the Iranian government over the next year, 0.89

01:36:25.120 that would i i think from an american perspective increase the incentive to blow up karg to love

01:36:33.680 karg where i think the overwhelming majority of iranian energy uh is loaded onto ships and you're

01:36:40.440 hearing people talk about that let's just eliminate karg island is that um would that work is that

01:36:48.400 possible no it wouldn't work and um you know this is a first of all card

01:36:56.240 first of all card as you know license far and almost um on the other shoulder of cliffs and

01:37:07.280 then behind that it's barren very very barren very with no vegetation um the hills and mountains

01:37:16.460 A small range of mountains goes right down to the straits.

01:37:21.560 So, first of all, is how would you get troops to car?

01:37:26.200 I mean, you can't sail them up the Hormuz.

01:37:28.900 In fact, what I understand is that what they call, I think,

01:37:35.300 MEU, the Marine Expeditionary Unit,

01:37:38.660 HMS something or USS something, rather, I can't remember,

01:37:43.540 with its proper name, did erupt with 2,000 Marines on board, and Iran fired a couple

01:37:54.300 of missiles across its bows, and it is now removed to about 1,000 kilometers off the

01:38:01.600 Persian coast, because it doesn't want to risk moving any closer, which is what happened

01:38:07.800 to the also which happened to the carriers they had to move further and further back so that they

01:38:15.260 couldn't actually use the the the fighter to strike aircraft on their deck because it was too far

01:38:23.280 they'd have to start refueling them even over the target and that is an unacceptable risk for them

01:38:29.820 So I don't think you could get troops, could you land them on the borders?

01:38:37.060 Well, Cog Island is in the artillery range of the Iranian side of the Hormones.

01:38:45.560 And it's certainly within ballistic missiles.

01:38:48.720 So your troops would be there and they would have both missiles and they would have artillery fire all the time.

01:38:58.900 How would you resupply them?

01:39:00.760 How would you deal with them?

01:39:02.220 Would you create a sort of an air base by the back? 1.00

01:39:07.320 Well, actually, the Iranians would allow that

01:39:10.740 because in the Iran-Iraq war, 0.91

01:39:15.500 they were specialists in opening corridors

01:39:19.980 and luring the Iraqis to go in their corridors

01:39:24.940 because they thought they were unprotected.

01:39:27.620 and then they closed the corridor

01:39:30.360 and then they killed the troops in it.

01:39:35.660 The Iraqi has a big military.

01:39:39.800 It is a million men under arms

01:39:42.740 and the B'zish are near another million.

01:39:47.080 They would, I think, not find it difficult

01:39:51.220 to deal with a substantial landing of troops

01:39:57.200 It is terrible. The mountains, the cliffs are full of anti-ship missiles, and the mountains also are full of caves and tunnels where artillery is in position. Digging artillery out of mountains is a terrible, expensive job.

01:40:20.300 And in any case, you can't get into, that wouldn't give you, if you had Park Island, you wouldn't have control of Hormuz because the Iranians have, as I say, anti-ship missiles, but they also have, which we haven't seen used so far, submersible drones. 0.84

01:40:37.940 These are small drones that are in tunnels under the water. 0.80

01:40:44.820 They are submerged tunnels, and they can exit under the water from those tunnels.

01:40:51.000 They have lithium batteries, which can last about four days.

01:40:56.840 They have the capacity to loiter, and they use artificial intelligence to select the target and to attack the target.

01:41:05.540 Then they have surface drones, about 600 fast-ship surface drones.

01:41:14.100 Most of those are concealed also.

01:41:17.300 And they have finally, which is not much, but they have about 25 to 30 mini submarines.

01:41:26.940 And the draft that HOMOS is relatively shallow.

01:41:32.200 But these submarines are mini submarines, very small, and they can fly up and down for mows, and they can fire anti-ship missiles from the first submerged under the waters, or attack it with other forms of drones by these small submarines.

01:41:54.860 So they would be very vulnerable trying to go in there, and certainly even more vulnerable.

01:42:00.480 We've seen what happened over the weekend, where the U.S. lost many aircraft, partly because of an attempt to rescue two crew from the F-15,

01:42:13.060 but also the subsequent operation, which was probably an operation to try and take the enriched uranium from Issa.

01:42:24.860 nuclear facility

01:42:27.180 that went wrong

01:42:28.840 and there was an ambush

01:42:30.320 and many

01:42:33.220 places were and helicopters

01:42:34.700 were destroyed in that process

01:42:37.080 and it failed. I think

01:42:39.060 that was what Trump was

01:42:40.960 very much comfortable on

01:42:42.340 that they could

01:42:44.020 do a Maduro, do a Venezuela

01:42:47.360 the special forces

01:42:49.160 would go in one night

01:42:50.560 along Easter weekend when the markets

01:42:53.280 because they would go in, go to where Grossi, the head of the IEA,

01:42:59.880 say, you know, there's half of the enriched uranium sitting in a tunnel in this Faham,

01:43:06.020 and take it and then come back, and before the market opens, we've won.

01:43:11.960 It's a great success, but it went badly wrong.

01:43:16.460 My guess is, you know, that's over.

01:43:18.560 You can't repeat that exercise. 0.99

01:43:20.400 Now, not because the Iranians know of it, they knew all along. 0.99

01:43:25.400 I mean, you know, they're not stupid. 0.83

01:43:27.100 They knew that the main aim of Trump would be to try and seize the uranium 0.94

01:43:33.000 and then sort of put it out as a trophy.

01:43:36.580 We've destroyed their nuclear capabilities.

01:43:39.560 Now we have more than half.

01:43:41.560 And Ross, he said it was 60 to 70 percent of the total 430 kilos of 60 percent enriched uranium.

01:43:52.300 When the president threatened yesterday to eliminate the civilization and to destroy the country, what weapons do you think he was thinking about using?

01:44:04.100 I really don't know. It sounded very ominous to me.

01:44:08.180 I mean, that he could take out, you know, this is a big country, I mean, a huge country, 95 million people, you know, infrastructure and industry, I mean, the size of the whole of Western Europe across it.

01:44:26.620 I mean, how could he, how would you do this by any conventional means?

01:44:32.620 I don't understand.

01:44:34.860 Maybe he was deliberately hinting at some sort of nuclear device, but I can't tell.

01:44:42.280 But that's, I suppose, one possibility of what he meant by, this would be the death of a civilization and it would not return again in the future.

01:44:54.180 It would be over.

01:44:56.040 Well, how do you do that in such a big state?

01:45:00.780 I don't know.

01:45:01.980 Or maybe he was just talking and didn't really mean what he was saying.

01:45:07.000 It was bluster.

01:45:08.660 We just don't know.

01:45:10.320 This makes it very difficult for not just the Iranians, but everyone, to sort of negotiate in this time

01:45:17.200 because they're finding it very difficult to understand

01:45:20.840 what is now Trump's ambition.

01:45:27.680 It seems to me that he wants to get out of this war

01:45:32.960 to which he was invited by Netanyahu

01:45:36.740 and enthusiastically accepted.

01:45:40.640 He wants to get out because he has this timeline.

01:45:45.580 The midterm elections are coming up. 0.96

01:45:48.720 He's always said, you know, I've got to, you know, we've got to get this Iranian thing settled in four to six weeks so that I can concentrate on trying to save the midterm results. 0.98

01:46:03.840 But now, after the failure to try and extract the uranium from Isfahan, 0.60

01:46:12.460 I think the only thing that was facing him was a long war or massive escalation.

01:46:20.480 And that wasn't going to work well for the midterms or his situation in the country.

01:46:27.240 So I think he was hoping for a way out.

01:46:31.140 Is it going to work? Can it work?

01:46:33.680 Well, that's what I mean about the contradiction.

01:46:37.180 Iran doesn't want a ceasefire. 0.62

01:46:40.240 It wants an end to the wars, an end to its siege.

01:46:46.660 It wants to be able to get out and play a role in the region.

01:46:53.180 And, of course, that is not the interest, not only of Trump, but particularly of Israel.

01:46:59.560 Israel has been pressing

01:47:01.800 I read the Hebrew

01:47:04.000 press regularly

01:47:05.480 we do sort of summaries

01:47:07.300 of it and they've given

01:47:09.880 up on the idea of

01:47:11.440 what they call a regime change

01:47:14.040 in Iran, they realise it's not going

01:47:16.000 to happen, it's not going to work

01:47:17.420 maybe it never was going to work

01:47:19.440 I mean they say this, you know, in the Hebrew

01:47:21.880 press they're much franker

01:47:24.000 than in the English language

01:47:25.260 and they say this very clearly

01:47:27.240 it wasn't going to work.

01:47:30.440 Then came Netanyahu

01:47:32.360 who said, they must

01:47:34.220 take Carg Island.

01:47:36.040 This has got to be done.

01:47:38.080 Boats on the ground. Carg Island is the

01:47:40.160 key thing that they have to do.

01:47:42.620 Well, they have now come to

01:47:44.300 the conclusion. I mean, the Israeli 1.00

01:47:45.860 military experts who

01:47:47.740 know the region, like

01:47:49.920 the military defense agency,

01:47:52.740 have said, you know,

01:47:54.000 what are you going to do?

01:47:56.360 please sit on Kork Island. You'll just be sitting target. You will have huge casualties.

01:48:02.200 And so even the Israelis understand that. So that's why we now have the switch that is taking

01:48:08.400 place, which is over, okay, now we have to destroy that infrastructure. Electricity, water supplies,

01:48:17.540 railways. In those last days, the entire railway system of Iran has been attacked by Israel. 0.61

01:48:26.360 Across the entire country, they've been destroying the railway system.

01:48:31.000 I mean, it is civilian infrastructure.

01:48:34.140 It is a criminal thing to do this to the civilian population.

01:48:41.100 But that's what they're pressing on Trump to do, to try and push him further down.

01:48:48.960 They want it really so that Iran is not functional as a going state, that it is too broken.

01:49:00.320 And then they want to see it divided up into sort of ethno-sectarian statelets, rather like Syria.

01:49:08.980 This happened to Syria so that it is weak and easily dominated.

01:49:18.960 What would it take to do that? Is that even leaving aside whether or not it's evil? And of course, it is evil. But if that were your goal, do you have a realistic chance of achieving it? And if so, how? 0.96

01:49:32.020 um it will be difficult but you could do some of it uh the iranian electrical system

01:49:42.700 is notably decentralized this is all part of the rethinking of asymmetrical warfare from

01:49:51.300 the 2003 period so there are about i think it's 150 160 different you know electrical plants that

01:50:01.320 They're all interconnected.

01:50:03.240 And so they have a huge number of small plans that are decentralized across Iran rather than, you know, a few big partners.

01:50:14.680 And Bushair is probably the biggest one that they have.

01:50:18.060 But that's a joint project with Russia.

01:50:21.240 But Iran has attacked that twice.

01:50:24.580 And I think this was a message.

01:50:26.760 And you asked me what was happening.

01:50:28.580 But first of all, Israel attacked Nantaz, which is another nuclear site, facility.

01:50:40.040 Nantaz is still, you know, damaged from when Trump bombed it.

01:50:45.860 But then they landed a missile quite near to Boucher, which is a functioning nuclear power plant jointly run by the Russians.

01:50:56.680 and it's under full IEA supervision because the Russians want it like that.

01:51:04.260 And then they landed a missile quite close to Boucher

01:51:07.440 and then now they've landed in the recent days a missile that has damaged it,

01:51:14.180 not heavily, just but hit it.

01:51:18.520 And of course, the IEA were very concerned about this

01:51:22.460 and the Russians have now withdrawn all their staff from it.

01:51:26.680 But in my view, this was a message not to Iran, but to the United States. 0.90

01:51:34.740 And the message was to say, you know, well, if you don't do it, we have the capability to eliminate these nuclear, 0.84

01:51:47.480 to go down the road of, it's like attacking the nuclear issue.

01:51:54.220 In other words, to use technical nuclear weapons. 0.52

01:51:58.740 So I think this was a pressure point that was put on to the White House to say, look, either you do what we say and destroy their capabilities, their infrastructure, or maybe Israel will be forced to move to a different level of attack.

01:52:20.680 To a nuclear level. 0.86

01:52:23.280 Well, that would not be the first time the Israelis have threatened that. 0.94

01:52:26.540 They threatened that in 1973. 0.94

01:52:28.200 So it's been over 50 years of the same threat.

01:52:32.320 Do you believe that that's a real threat?

01:52:35.360 Do you think Israel would use nuclear weapons in Iran?

01:52:41.080 At the last resort, possibly, but not before.

01:52:45.620 No, I don't think so.

01:52:46.920 I think it would be very much a last resort. 0.98

01:52:50.800 But, you know, Israel is becoming less. I've been writing for some years to say that, you know, it's no longer possible to see and understand a large segment of the Israeli population through secular rationalist lenses, which we tend to do.

01:53:10.460 We have to look at it through eschatological ideas

01:53:14.480 and see what they are looking to.

01:53:18.660 And there you see, I mean,

01:53:20.620 you take somebody, someone, a minister like Spockridge,

01:53:24.160 I remember six, seven years ago,

01:53:26.640 him saying, you know, this is the plan. 1.00

01:53:29.100 We're going to get rid of all of the Palestinians, 1.00

01:53:31.400 all of the Arabs out of the territories, 1.00

01:53:33.820 but we require one thing. 0.95

01:53:35.660 This was seven years ago, six, seven years ago,

01:53:37.920 and he said, we're missing one thing.

01:53:39.880 We need a big crisis or a major war to finish off this project.

01:53:47.360 In other words, there is a large segment that are not frightened of Armageddon,

01:53:54.560 but actually are looking forward because this is the path to redemption in this stew.

01:54:02.860 So there's no point saying to them, you know, as we in Europe do said,

01:54:07.800 Well, it doesn't make any sense to provoke a big war.

01:54:11.480 It makes absolute sense if you're an eschatological, messianic believer to do these things.

01:54:20.320 So, you know, we have to try and understand it in these terms, too, I think.

01:54:27.180 And there is a danger, the sort of eschatological, the messianic theme that is present,

01:54:34.780 has been predicted that it would be present.

01:54:37.800 And it's gripped probably more than half of the Israelis, the sense of Amalek, that they are fighting the war of Amalek. 0.96

01:54:48.660 And this is going to lead to eventually to Armageddon and redemption. 0.73

01:54:56.120 Given that, how do you understand the pressure from Israel on the United States to continue fighting Russia?

01:55:04.440 it's very clear now it's always been clear but it's rarely spoken in public in the u.s that

01:55:11.540 israel and its advocates in the u.s have been the prime drivers of the ukraine war pushing

01:55:17.700 united states to fund ukraine in a fight against russia and putin why what is this thinking there

01:55:24.860 what's the strategy behind that do you think i think it's it's the same people and it's the same

01:55:34.420 supremacist thinking, the idea of control, and there is, I think, in the case of Russia,

01:55:47.480 great ancient resentments, I mean, dating back, first of all, to the failed attempt

01:55:55.880 of the Bolsheviks to institute a society that ended all reliance

01:56:04.500 on family, community, religious, to create people as just units,

01:56:11.080 units in a society, in a sort of technocratic society.

01:56:16.040 That failed, and then Stalin was instrumental in, as they believe,

01:56:23.700 in killing many of those people who largely were originally,

01:56:29.640 many of them came from the U.S. and were prosecuted.

01:56:33.120 And I remember watching a video of Putin addressing some of the Pacific members in Moscow,

01:56:41.420 and he was saying to them, you know, and he was warning them,

01:56:47.800 and he said, you know that I think the figure he gave was 83% of the Bolsheviks were Jewish,

01:56:59.420 and most of them didn't speak Russian, based on Yiddish.

01:57:05.080 So the Russians were very aware of this history,

01:57:09.060 and then they were made aware of it again in the 90s,

01:57:13.180 When the oligarchs, the period of the oligarchs, or Putin and Dan on that, of the oligarchs, there were seven oligarchs, normally, or six were Jewish and tied to financial institutions in the West, whether in America or in Europe.

01:57:41.560 And the consequences of that period with the shock treatment, the shock economic treatment that was visited on Russia, I mean, were terrible, the consequences on the society.

01:57:58.220 So I think Putin has always tried to carefully manoeuvre and manage, if you like, what he understands is a sort of power system which is higher and larger than the power system in Europe and the United States in the conventional way, based much of it on finance and banking going back to the 19th century.

01:58:28.220 and the influence of people, the act of Franks, and so on.

01:58:32.760 And that has given them a very cautious attitude to their relations.

01:58:42.780 And we've seen that caution sort of obvious in Syria at times,

01:58:47.540 but also in Putin's relations with Israel.

01:58:54.120 I don't mean it in any denigatory way, I'm just saying that I think he's a cautious person, a lawyer by training, and he understands the power, the global power and its ability to mobilize and its ability to use proxies to damage and maybe even defeat.

01:59:24.120 And so, you know, this is, I mean, it's interesting because this is exactly the parallel that we're dealing with now with Iran in the sense that I think the United States would like and Iran would be content to find a security solution.

01:59:54.120 permanent security solution not just a ceasefire um to which would involve um of course things

02:00:03.240 like sanctions removal of sanctions very similar to what russia was looking for but just as in the

02:00:12.120 ukrainian situation the european determination to continue the war on russia using the ukrainian

02:00:22.040 proxies has really stopped the ability to to find a political solution um a political architecture

02:00:31.560 because what russia wants is quite clear i see russia wants to set the boundaries very clear

02:00:40.760 what is the boundaries of the sphere of interest of nature and what are russia and china and asia's

02:00:48.200 sphere of interest what where does the boundary between this lie and what does that mean that's

02:00:54.120 what i think he means when he talks about security architecture and this is what iran is effectively 0.54

02:01:00.360 saying you know you have to curb do something about stopping israel because otherwise israel

02:01:06.760 will not allow you to come to any, you know, any serious, meaningful agreement with Iran. 0.51

02:01:17.380 And if you don't, and then Iran will do it its own way, which is going to be, 0.93

02:01:24.440 and you said what happens about homos, but, you know, 0.99

02:01:28.180 they only have to keep homos tightly closed for three weeks. 0.92

02:01:32.320 and the pain across financial markets in the West

02:01:36.020 about supply lines and about food

02:01:39.920 and all these issues will become very, very severe.

02:01:44.620 So, you know, they're saying, you know,

02:01:47.440 these are our equations.

02:01:50.440 It's either security for all or security for no one,

02:01:55.260 prosperity for all or prosperity for no one.

02:01:58.660 And we are intent on it.

02:02:00.940 You know, the Iranians have a huge resilience. They're unusual people, remarkable in many sense, because their reading of the revelation of the Prophet is that you are mandated as a human being to oppose the oppression of others.

02:02:25.680 You are mandated similarly to look after and to take care of the dispossessed.

02:02:34.580 I mean, these are the fundamental things. 0.93

02:02:36.520 You go back to Kerbala, you'll see that is the principles. 0.98

02:02:40.340 These were the principles that the imam induced.

02:02:48.460 And the third principle was the need to have active minds.

02:02:53.340 I want the people to have active minds, to think for themselves and to think well.

02:03:01.260 And for that reason, it made it compulsory that if you went to university,

02:03:05.720 if you wanted to study Islamic philosophy, you also had to study Western philosophy.

02:03:11.560 The two run together in Iranian universities. 0.83

02:03:16.040 So this gives them a very strong, and it explains why Iran is viewed as an enemy

02:03:21.640 by people who, you know, are oppressing other people

02:03:28.020 with who are enforcing special rights on some people

02:03:33.520 and not on others in the region.

02:03:37.720 And that is, you know, where it is.

02:03:41.860 And I think that eventually we're going to get to the point

02:03:46.500 because the tensions in Israel,

02:03:49.060 a huge amount, enormous

02:03:50.960 tensions that

02:03:51.880 are there.

02:03:54.440 You know, the

02:03:55.700 Kishka staff went to the

02:03:58.580 cabinet the other day

02:03:59.860 and said, listen,

02:04:02.340 the IDF, the military

02:04:04.460 force is collapsing. We're

02:04:06.500 totally overextending.

02:04:08.460 It is collapsing.

02:04:11.280 And, you know,

02:04:12.620 there's nothing we can do about it

02:04:14.300 unless you want to produce another

02:04:15.860 400,000 troops.

02:04:18.580 We can't do it.

02:04:19.680 We're overextending. 1.00

02:04:21.000 We need to get out of Lebanon. 1.00

02:04:23.140 We are failing. 1.00

02:04:24.980 We have failed with Gaza. 0.75

02:04:27.060 We have failed in Lebanon. 1.00

02:04:30.580 We thought we defeated Hezbollah, 1.00

02:04:32.600 and now it is inflicting huge costs on us, 1.00

02:04:35.960 huge damage on us.

02:04:37.880 You have failed.

02:04:39.600 They are saying that to Netanyahu.

02:04:42.640 It's in the Hebrew press more than it's in the English language press,

02:04:46.420 But it's a real crisis.

02:04:49.040 And why it's such a big crisis is, in Israel, the army has always been the spinal cord of the state.

02:04:57.220 You know, left, right, religious, secular, all did their service in the army.

02:05:03.440 It was the thing that kept it together.

02:05:06.620 And the chief of staff is saying, it's broken.

02:05:10.180 It's completely bust.

02:05:11.620 and the political leadership says, no, you're just being defeated.

02:05:18.580 We are on our way to a great victory

02:05:20.960 and we're going to establish greater Israel across the Middle East.

02:05:27.780 And within Israel, people are saying, you're wrong.

02:05:31.740 It's not going to do that.

02:05:33.460 Actually, you're going from one defeat to another to a bigger defeat.

02:05:38.340 And that we have to take stock and think again.

02:05:41.620 of where where we go why given the fragile state of the idf would the idf be bombing

02:05:52.020 residential apartment buildings in beirut not in southern lebanon but in beirut

02:05:58.980 you know a country with a christian president why would they be

02:06:02.980 killing civilians in beirut right now well what some of the i i um military people then

02:06:11.300 Israel are saying

02:06:13.180 this is clearly a

02:06:15.440 last gasp

02:06:17.300 by

02:06:18.360 the government there

02:06:20.560 to present

02:06:22.640 if you like a victory

02:06:25.160 before they have to concede

02:06:27.420 that they will join

02:06:29.480 the ceasefire in due

02:06:31.400 course that this was a

02:06:32.920 show of force

02:06:34.760 even though it was

02:06:36.620 a completely

02:06:38.460 ineffective show of force

02:06:40.560 military terms. This was just simply destroying

02:06:44.240 residential power blocks, many of them, many of them.

02:06:49.600 And it was of no purpose other than for

02:06:52.800 the political grandees to say, oh, no, look what we've done.

02:06:57.660 We've got freedom of action in Lebanon. We can go where we want

02:07:01.380 and destroy what we want. Well, maybe we

02:07:05.460 will agree to join the ceasefire if Trump pushes us hard enough

02:07:09.520 to do that but it has served no purpose and the idea no it is actually um they are going to i

02:07:18.780 think completely withdraw except that they say and this is what the defense minister is insisting

02:07:25.660 they have to demolish all the houses for a depth of seven kilometers into level platinum they have

02:07:33.560 to be like gaza i mean they don't hesitate to say it's got to be like gaza and that's going to be

02:07:39.240 buffers and the military say what is the point of that the idea for saying to their leaders say

02:07:46.360 what is the point of that because actually the the the hezbollah's missiles most of them are

02:07:55.320 north of the litani the litani is the river that divides lebanon it's about i can't remember how

02:08:01.700 many kilometers but it's about the third of the way up in lebanon and he says they can still

02:08:07.360 far from north of Litani into

02:08:09.480 northern Israel. And they're

02:08:11.400 causing huge damage and

02:08:13.240 huge losses. In one

02:08:15.260 day, I mean,

02:08:16.720 the idea

02:08:18.160 lost nearly 800

02:08:20.280 Makovah tanks, main battle

02:08:22.240 tanks. Now, they

02:08:24.440 did an ambush

02:08:26.500 and they've done it on other days.

02:08:28.740 On other days, they've lost 80.

02:08:31.120 Maybe 50

02:08:32.340 in another day. It's like 2006

02:08:34.780 in Lebanon when I was

02:08:36.540 there, and they did the same thing

02:08:38.300 for the Merkurva there.

02:08:41.220 And, you know,

02:08:42.440 of course, I mean,

02:08:44.300 actually, I think

02:08:46.300 a few of the lead tanks, the crew, get out.

02:08:48.820 But for most of them, they

02:08:50.340 don't get out. So there are big

02:08:52.340 casualties taking place. I mean,

02:08:54.360 the thing is a

02:08:56.380 mess, a disaster.

02:08:58.180 And this is why I think that

02:08:59.980 ultimately, the

02:09:02.160 demand for

02:09:03.400 a real

02:09:05.940 ceasefire is mostly going to come not from Trump and those associates around him that are close to

02:09:14.340 Israel, but may come from Israel itself because they've experienced huge damage. And, you know,

02:09:21.760 what is the point of this? I mean, they cannot make a political gain from the system. They've

02:09:33.240 created mayhem across the region

02:09:35.980 and

02:09:37.180 nothing is working through their

02:09:39.760 favor. There's not going to be

02:09:41.960 a sort of love-in with

02:09:43.820 the Gulf states, Abraham

02:09:45.580 courts or anything after

02:09:47.600 what has happened in

02:09:49.700 this period. So they

02:09:51.840 have to rethink where they're going

02:09:53.880 and I think that

02:09:55.820 probably will happen.

02:09:58.040 Maybe not yet. It's not right

02:09:59.820 yet. But I

02:10:01.960 then they will.

02:10:04.880 I think in the United States,

02:10:07.060 doesn't the U.S. have to think about 0.89

02:10:10.540 how to disengage from Israel,

02:10:12.640 given that the cost of the relationship

02:10:15.080 is very obvious to the American public now?

02:10:17.500 We would not be in a war with Russia 0.68

02:10:19.080 were it not for pressure from Israel and its advocates. 0.79

02:10:22.440 We would not be in a war with Iran 0.81

02:10:24.200 were it not for our relationship with Israel. 0.82

02:10:26.020 So can the United States disentangle from Israel 0.79

02:10:31.080 without getting hurt in the process, do you think? 0.98

02:10:34.500 Well, there are those in Israel who advocate it.

02:10:37.420 I know that's surprising.

02:10:38.820 But on the right wing, there are those who say it.

02:10:41.620 And even Netanyahu said it's time for us to disengage

02:10:45.100 and be less reliant on the United States.

02:10:48.680 I think he reads the writing on the wall.

02:10:51.000 And frankly, he sees the writing on the wall.

02:10:53.380 So let's anticipate it.

02:10:55.340 But how they're going to do that, I mean,

02:10:57.920 is a different question.

02:11:01.880 As I was saying earlier,

02:11:04.040 you know, the whole,

02:11:06.160 it's not just the geopolitics of the region

02:11:09.380 is shifting because of Hormuz

02:11:13.020 and the way the war is,

02:11:14.780 but I'm saying that, you know,

02:11:17.180 the mainstay of Israel

02:11:20.200 has been the technical industries

02:11:24.180 of the Gulf and the Gulf states

02:11:26.560 and the money of the Gulf states, which have supported it.

02:11:30.260 And I think that is probably going to change, and change quite dramatically.

02:11:36.540 I'm not sure it depends to the degree with which the Gulf states can also read the writing on the wall

02:11:45.820 and realize some of them, I think, have begun to do that. 0.56

02:11:50.440 They're thinking about how to deal with Iraq,

02:11:55.320 that they need to come to terms and to come to an arrangement 0.75

02:11:59.240 so they can export their energy and whatever else they want.

02:12:03.100 But that is going to mean, and the Iranians say that,

02:12:06.960 you can't do that and also be beholden to Microsoft and Amazon

02:12:12.080 and have all of their data centers.

02:12:15.000 And because we understand what data centers are,

02:12:18.760 they are for security, they are for surveillance,

02:12:22.500 for monitoring every telephone call

02:12:25.360 and every structure that takes moves in the Middle East 0.99

02:12:30.140 so that you can assassinate them if you want them.

02:12:34.220 We are not going to accept this type of technology in the region.

02:12:41.100 And that's why they've attacked them.

02:12:42.520 And I think they've attacked that big Amazon center in the UAE.

02:12:46.760 I think it costs $30 billion to set up.

02:12:49.120 It's the biggest. You won't find it on Google Maps because it's hidden, but it's a huge AI center there.

02:12:57.120 So I think, yes, I think that is the way.

02:13:01.840 So what is the business model for Israel for the next 10 years?

02:13:08.180 That is going to be a question.

02:13:11.220 Where does this war leave the Gulf states, the GCC?

02:13:13.800 It leads them badly damaged. Many of the people leaving, particularly Dubai and UAE, it leads them needing to rethink how they can, if you like, manage a relationship with Iran,

02:13:42.000 which allows them to export their goods,

02:13:45.500 even though it will mean disengagement from the Western financialized world.

02:13:51.840 But they will need to do that.

02:13:54.700 I think they will find they have little choice ultimately.

02:13:59.440 At the moment, they're full of indignation and anger

02:14:02.240 that they've been attacked and blah, blah, blah.

02:14:05.940 But ultimately, you know, if they want to move their products,

02:14:10.640 either through the Red Sea, by the way, the Saudi pipeline to the Red Sea has just been attacked.

02:14:18.780 I don't know if it's completely destroyed, but it's just been attacked.

02:14:23.260 That was their alternative to supplying oil.

02:14:26.260 They could supply five million miles a day off the coast of the Red Sea.

02:14:33.880 But that's been attacked now.

02:14:35.460 So, I mean, the pressure is on the Gulf states to come to terms, and some of them will, I believe.

02:14:42.820 Some of them will more easily, and others may not.

02:14:49.420 And finally, how do you think most likely this is resolved, and over what time period?

02:14:58.060 uh i think that this is going to be resolved in the way uh that i indicated i think that um

02:15:09.720 initially um we will see the negotiations that the americans although they've said

02:15:17.240 the white house has said that the 10-point plan is the base for discussion about the

02:15:27.760 political settlement. This is the base. This is the anchor, if you like, the 10-point plan

02:15:33.220 that Iran has produced. It's a real, I mean, it's a real initiative. It's been signed off

02:15:41.920 by the Supreme Leader, the young Supreme Leader, and by the Security Council. It's not one of

02:15:50.060 these plans that have come in from Pakistan by talking to sort of ephemeral people. This has

02:15:56.600 come out of the security structures and with the support of the IRGC.

02:16:04.560 And the Supreme Leader read it, asked for some amendments to it, and gave it its imprimatur.

02:16:12.440 So it is a serious document.

02:16:15.120 I think that inevitably in the negotiations, whoever is negotiating, if it is Vance or

02:16:22.520 Whitcock or whoever, they will then revert or try and say, yes, but we have to go back to these

02:16:29.840 other issues. You may not enrich uranium in Iran. And one of the principles that the Iranians have

02:16:38.660 said is we have the right to enrich in Iran our uranium ore as a source of energy. They will then 0.94

02:16:47.180 say well you cannot have such missiles you're going to have to dismantle your missile systems

02:16:52.940 and you will need to put limits on them and we will have to inspect them and we will have to

02:16:59.660 monitor it and iran will say no way is that going to happen and they will say you'll have to give up

02:17:08.320 the Hormuz completely, that you'll have to give up the Hormuz, and they will say, no,

02:17:17.860 we are in control of it, and we don't intend to give it up.

02:17:22.280 And then the negotiators on the American side will probably say, well, if you do what we

02:17:28.380 set out in our 15-point plan, or whatever it is, then slowly sanctions will be lifted

02:17:35.940 on you according to how you behave and iran will say listen you forget our basic equation

02:17:43.440 prosperity for all or prosperity for now if you do that you're going to have an economic crisis

02:17:50.540 and i think probably that is where we're going to go there will be eventually financial economic

02:17:57.360 crisis in certainly in europe but in america too um the debt market will will tank the market

02:18:05.660 the stock market will go it will be a crisis and people will eventually you know unfortunately

02:18:13.420 pain is the greatest um instigator of change i mean i think when the pain becomes sufficient

02:18:21.900 then then there will be a decision in the white house that they have to rethink

02:18:29.100 um how they approach this and that maybe the 10-point plan was something that they could

02:18:34.780 actually work with

02:18:36.440 and that they understand

02:18:39.060 that those were preconditions

02:18:41.020 to a ceasefire.

02:18:42.820 Not the discussion points

02:18:44.780 during a ceasefire, but the

02:18:46.660 preconditions. And they include

02:18:49.120 the lifting of sanctions.

02:18:51.260 And it was first primary sanctions

02:18:53.020 and secondary sanctions that affect

02:18:55.180 Iran. I mean, you've

02:18:57.100 heard these same stories from Russia.

02:18:59.060 I mean, this is the same

02:19:00.260 sort of thing. And

02:19:02.300 And either people will face up to that, or it's going to be a long and painful period in coming ahead for us, unfortunately.

02:19:11.980 But I think it's important.

02:19:15.460 I was going to say, but nonetheless, I think that's not a bad thing, not a disaster.

02:19:22.220 Because I do think, I mean, maybe I'm speaking, you know, I'm going too contrarian, but I think we in the West need a process of catharsis.

02:19:34.860 We've sunk into nihilism and we've sunk into a sort of negative as modernism and an economic structure that damage the majority of our peoples. 0.69

02:19:51.760 the minority

02:19:54.940 get chiefly rich by doing 1.00

02:19:56.960 very little but many people

02:19:58.620 are suffering today

02:20:00.380 I mean it's hard

02:20:01.700 jobs are getting scatter

02:20:03.820 it's hard

02:20:04.920 and I think that we do need

02:20:08.620 sort of what I call

02:20:10.320 creative destruction

02:20:11.720 a little bit to help

02:20:14.660 us rethink for a start

02:20:16.860 what sort of economic

02:20:18.460 structure do we need to

02:20:20.320 to address the problems we have

02:20:22.600 because the economic structure we've had in this period

02:20:27.140 has brought about this bipolar world.

02:20:31.720 There is, you know, the world of the billionaires

02:20:36.080 and the world of the rest,

02:20:37.940 which is getting progressively horrible.

02:20:41.400 And, you know, our people, our only people,

02:20:44.260 wherever it is in Europe and other states think,

02:20:47.140 well, you know, protest doesn't work.

02:20:50.320 because we protest, nothing happens.

02:20:53.560 Voting doesn't work.

02:20:55.300 We can vote for Tweedledee or Tweedledum.

02:20:58.320 It doesn't change the economic system

02:21:01.580 and bring about a change,

02:21:04.700 and that's what we want to see.

02:21:07.300 And I think the whole of this period, 1.00

02:21:10.320 partly stimulated by what the Iranians are doing,

02:21:14.160 and even by their thoughts about it,

02:21:17.240 is going to provoke people to think more deeply in Europe

02:21:23.300 about how do we actually not just produce

02:21:28.840 a cosmetic market relations type of paint,

02:21:33.380 but how do we actually find a solution

02:21:36.840 that would provide a decent living for our people?

02:21:42.120 I think that's the most hopeful thing I've heard in a long time, and I'm grateful for your analysis.

02:21:52.300 Alistair Crook, thank you very much.

02:21:55.160 My pleasure. Thank you.

02:21:57.020 So if you've made it to the end of this episode, one recommendation.

02:22:00.980 Go back, rewind the last three minutes of what Alistair Crook just said about what this crisis could lead to.

02:22:09.680 that the shoots of renewal are poking up from the soil.

02:22:14.220 They are there.

02:22:15.180 If you look carefully, you can see them.

02:22:17.520 What we're doing is not working

02:22:18.920 and hasn't worked for a long time.

02:22:20.680 It's not even worth apportioning blame for that.

02:22:22.680 It's enough to just observe it, acknowledge it,

02:22:24.880 and know that it's true because it is true.

02:22:27.180 The majority of the American population

02:22:28.820 is not being served by the current system.

02:22:31.500 And yet, some sort of horrible revolution

02:22:34.420 is the last thing we want.

02:22:36.500 It is possible, and if we're wise, we could make it true,

02:22:39.520 that what we're going through now

02:22:41.200 leads to something better,

02:22:42.700 a better future for our country,

02:22:44.500 the United States,

02:22:45.220 and for the West,

02:22:46.100 and maybe for the world.

02:22:47.860 This doesn't have to end

02:22:49.700 in total destruction.

02:22:50.740 It could end in renewal.

02:22:53.120 And no one has ever put it better

02:22:55.000 than Alistair Crooks just did.

02:22:56.920 So watch it again

02:22:58.340 if you have the time.

02:22:59.480 Thanks so much for joining us.

02:23:00.420 We'll see you next Wednesday.

The Tucker Carlson Show - April 09, 2026

BREAKING： Netanyahu’s Terror Attack on Lebanon Destroys Trump’s Ceasefire. Tucker Reacts.

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