The Tucker Carlson Show - Economist Exposes How Banks Manufacture Wars, False Flags & Famines to Usher in the New World Order

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00:00:30.000 Richard, thanks for doing this.

00:00:34.440 It's a great pleasure and honor to be here.

00:00:37.280 I think of the claim that we went to war with Iran

00:00:40.400 because of its nuclear program as a kind of IQ test.

00:00:43.500 Anyone who repeats that claim has failed the test.

00:00:46.780 As you pointed out many times, all wars are engineered.

00:00:50.560 And we're just having a discussion at breakfast

00:00:51.900 that I think is worth recounting for others.

00:00:55.160 So First World War,

00:00:56.340 one of the most momentous events in world history

00:00:59.640 ended Christian Europe, killed more than 20 million people, wounded another 20 million, 0.81

00:01:05.440 just really reordered the globe, and then led to the Second World War. So the United States

00:01:11.200 joined that war in 1917. Toward the end, it had already been going for three years.

00:01:16.600 But one of the main reasons the U.S. got into that war is because of the sinking of a passenger

00:01:21.800 ship called the Lusitania off the coast of Ireland two years before in 1915, in which 120-odd

00:01:28.460 Americans were killed. It was sunk by a German U-boat. And even at the time, there were people

00:01:32.600 who said, I don't think this is, this is not quite on the level. But now, 112 years later,

00:01:42.300 we know a lot more about the sinking of the Lusitania. And I wonder if you wouldn't just

00:01:47.460 mind recounting what you said to me this morning at breakfast, because it gives us perspective

00:01:51.440 on the effect of propaganda in wartime.

00:01:55.380 Right.

00:01:56.820 Yes, I mean, the sinking was clearly a key factor

00:02:01.320 in creating in the media in America

00:02:03.580 anti-German sentiment quite successfully.

00:02:07.040 And so, yeah, the question is what happened really?

00:02:09.960 The way it's presented was, well,

00:02:12.540 there's a passenger ship with American passengers,

00:02:16.300 you know, just civilians traveling across the Atlantic

00:02:19.460 and sunk by a German submarine.

00:02:21.440 Well, that's like an act of war against America.

00:02:24.520 Yes.

00:02:25.120 Got to do something about this. 0.90

00:02:26.440 We're going to declare war on Germany.

00:02:29.300 Well, that's not a representation of the facts.

00:02:33.640 What really happened was there was this British plan to get America into the war on the British side against Germany,

00:02:42.560 which was very difficult because, of course, actually, you know, ethnically a majority at the time of Americans were of German origin.

00:02:53.960 Even German speakers still, by that time, German was still widely used as a language in America.

00:03:02.100 And so to get America into a war against Germany is a bit of a feat, you know, to arrange that.

00:03:07.920 Yes, it is.

00:03:09.820 So how did this happen?

00:03:11.700 and that is a good example of the extent to which the plotters that want war go and it's good for

00:03:21.120 people to think about that because of course ordinary people don't want war in any country

00:03:25.420 most ordinary people are good people and that creates this problem that they just can't imagine

00:03:31.300 that we're dealing today you know as we look at the world with such dark and evil forces that are

00:03:38.040 intentionally plotting to create a world war

00:03:41.360 or get countries to declare war, you know?

00:03:43.900 Yes.

00:03:44.540 So that's why-

00:03:45.580 That is true.

00:03:46.100 People cannot even permit themselves

00:03:48.900 to believe that could be true.

00:03:50.320 Yeah, yeah.

00:03:51.360 And that's where studying history is important

00:03:53.920 because we need to know the facts

00:03:56.100 of what happened in the past

00:03:58.160 to understand the present

00:03:59.080 and make some predictions about the future

00:04:01.800 or prepare for what could happen in the future.

00:04:05.080 And the past teaches us

00:04:06.740 that there are some evil elements out there

00:04:08.900 and they're not really,

00:04:10.900 you know, they're not people

00:04:13.220 that are representative of ordinary people. 0.98

00:04:15.100 The majority of people

00:04:15.880 wouldn't intentionally harm others.

00:04:18.660 But we do have such people out there

00:04:21.040 and often in very important

00:04:23.200 and powerful positions.

00:04:24.380 So what happened was,

00:04:26.680 step number one,

00:04:29.280 Britain did this very officially.

00:04:31.060 It listed the Lusitania

00:04:33.180 as an auxiliary naval military ship.

00:04:39.060 And of course, as you can imagine,

00:04:40.900 the German Imperial Army and Navy went by the book.

00:04:45.420 I mean, that's one thing Germans are famous for.

00:04:48.120 And of course, the British knew this.

00:04:49.880 So the moment they would list it on their official list

00:04:52.340 of what are our ships officially declared to be military ships,

00:04:56.440 it was on there as an auxiliary military ship.

00:05:00.140 The Germans would, of course, target it.

00:05:01.640 Now, when the Germans then saw this, German military, oh, well, hang on, isn't this a passenger ship? Well, you can reuse, you know, of course, passenger ships for warfare. So that seems to be what they're doing. But then they realized, oh, actually, they're taking passengers in. They plan to take passengers in in America. 0.73

00:05:23.560 and so partly they sort of half realized

00:05:26.360 well this could be a part of a bigger plot

00:05:29.420 that's not good

00:05:30.740 and we don't want to sink passengers

00:05:32.480 on the other hand it was listed there

00:05:34.520 so in many ways they had no choice

00:05:36.340 what they did then was the German military command

00:05:39.860 they put out

00:05:41.120 and the German embassies implemented in America

00:05:43.540 they put out ads into American newspapers

00:05:46.080 stating and you know we have copies of these ads

00:05:49.520 warning people don't board the Lusitania it is listed as a military auxiliary ship

00:05:56.320 it is on our target list with the German government put ads in American newspapers

00:06:01.100 telling Americans not to board the Lusitania because they might sink it exactly indeed indeed

00:06:06.040 that's incredible and and it turns out that in in some cities the big newspapers refuse to carry

00:06:12.540 these ads because they were clearly controlled by people that had the same views as the British

00:06:18.800 side in this war and wanted america to join the war so the ads weren't always published

00:06:25.840 successfully everywhere but quite a few were published so that's the situation despite that

00:06:32.960 there were passengers on board no doubt some efforts were made to make sure certain groups

00:06:37.880 you know you would have some people on there for sure maybe you pay them to board even who knows

00:06:43.840 you know we don't know these details we know the facts that there were passengers american

00:06:47.480 passengers on board American citizens and the Germans had warned we're going to sink this and

00:06:52.840 it's not quite clear whether there was actually military equipment on there there seemed to be

00:06:58.920 the indication that there was because and I you can imagine that the goal was really to make sure

00:07:05.340 that the Germans will sink it so the best way then is to actually have military equipment on there

00:07:10.220 and you know have some visibility when it's in the dock and some something's loaded and we do

00:07:17.060 have some indication that this is happening of course later this was denied um but there's also

00:07:22.420 you know various people looking at at the the sunken wreck um and still it's basically there

00:07:30.340 is a good chance that there was military ammunition and other equipment on there

00:07:34.720 now so that's one thing the other thing is well how would the captain of the ship handle this

00:07:42.580 as he crosses with his passengers

00:07:47.140 and potentially military load.

00:07:49.780 And of course, he must have been aware

00:07:50.780 that it's listed as an auxiliary military ship

00:07:52.700 as he crosses the Atlantic.

00:07:55.800 Well, the British at that time

00:07:57.220 had actually broken the secret code

00:08:00.180 for encryption that the German military

00:08:03.820 was using, the Enigma code.

00:08:05.400 And they therefore could read the messages

00:08:08.020 between the U-boat submarines

00:08:11.740 and headquarters and so on which of course is another indication that okay you know this could

00:08:19.340 not really have been such a big surprise to Britain and something like this of course must

00:08:25.540 have been the reason why the captain of the ship of the Lusitania was happy to go because you know

00:08:31.240 of course he has to trust his his admiralty and his you know his country's leadership they said 0.97

00:08:38.920 no it'll be fine we make sure you'll be fine we know where the u-boats are the germans are and 0.68

00:08:43.940 we'll guide you on the track that will keep you safe so they guided him as it turns out straight

00:08:52.260 into one of those german submarines but the captain didn't know he was told this is a safe

00:08:58.120 path now where i'm sure he started to become suspicious was when the order was suddenly then

00:09:04.740 given in the vicinity or about to approach the vicinity of a german submarine to slow down the

00:09:11.100 engines because that never makes sense and there's a good bbc documentary on this where they didn't

00:09:17.040 hide the facts and they have the first lord of the admiralty as the key figure who was that

00:09:22.520 none other than winston churchill and they show how he gives the order now instruct the captain

00:09:31.600 to slow down the engines and even his underlings saying well sir um you know this sort of increases

00:09:38.620 the risk should we really do that this is my order give the order and that's what they did

00:09:43.760 they slowed down the Lusitania and of course it was unavoidable then the U-boat they saw them

00:09:51.080 it's on the list they have to follow the orders and they sank it and then of course the next day 0.94

00:09:55.720 you had all these headlines, you know, the Huns, the butchers added again, as the Germans were

00:10:02.360 described in the British First World War propaganda. And it was an important factor in

00:10:06.540 getting America into war. So, basically, it was a false flag. And that has been a key mechanism

00:10:13.240 to start or, you know, get countries to join a world war. It's not the only incidence, but it

00:10:21.300 shows you the devious nature of the plotters and that's what we have to be aware of today in this

00:10:26.100 day and age as we are unfortunately on the brink of a third world war again most people think surely

00:10:32.620 third world nobody wants a world war well ordinary people don't and i don't want it and you don't

00:10:36.640 want it no but there are people out there who are really doing everything to get there and a false

00:10:42.820 flag is likely to be the beginning of this um you know as we talk about peace as we have peace

00:10:49.500 negotiations, just one vicious and successful cunning false flag and then magnified with false

00:10:56.920 information by the media is unfortunately still enough. Spring is the most refreshing time of

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00:12:30.540 walmart i mean 9-11 the details of which are still classified for reasons no one will explain

00:12:38.420 no one's attempting to declassify it which tells you everything led to 20 years of war and the

00:12:43.760 deaths of millions yeah now actually on this topic i think there is there is the other important

00:12:50.060 parallel you know we we've been seeing this this war on iran by the us and israel and of course it

00:12:58.660 has major economic consequences dire consequences there's something we can we can talk about but

00:13:05.180 also this is another reason why we should look back at this era of the first world war and how

00:13:09.980 we got into this because it was the first great war it was you know in britain it's still called

00:13:14.240 the great war where you had full mobilization of entire countries you know previously you would

00:13:22.040 never mobilize the entire country of course not even civilians even you know housewives were

00:13:27.840 mobilized to do factory work or other support work hospital work all sorts um and and so it was really

00:13:36.640 the beginning of this modern era where you have totalitarian control unleashed under the cover of

00:13:43.340 a great war and of course that's a scenario we have to be very much aware of as as we speak you

00:13:50.680 know there's there's preparations for mobilization in germany draft um military service um you know

00:13:58.380 all the rules being revamped and tightened and the plan clearly is to draft more people into

00:14:05.840 the military it's official eu policy to have a huge rearmament drive to get ready for war and

00:14:13.020 they talk about dates and that tells you that i mean they're planning for a war i mean that's

00:14:17.900 it's not a secret they're saying we are planning for a war against the great powers russia they

00:14:23.680 don't mention china but of course you know their allies um whether or not perhaps not formally in

00:14:29.160 a military way but de facto allies china is there so and that's that's official eu policy to have

00:14:36.360 this war at 20 um 28 29 2030 other dates that are being mentioned we have to be ready by that time

00:14:44.000 for a world war um or war against russia which would be a world war so so what's going on here

00:14:52.780 And I think what we've seen this year has been clearly quite dramatic.

00:14:58.300 First, Venezuela, dramatic events, although in a way on the larger scale, sort of, you know, quickly done, somewhat contained, it seems, but quite a remarkable event.

00:15:12.900 because before of course for decades u.s intervention in latin america took the form

00:15:19.580 of covert operations which always run under the principle as a very british principle of

00:15:25.840 plausible deniability oh we didn't do that oh this this poor president get assassinated of

00:15:32.140 this country has nothing to do with us right this is how it's been working for decades in latin

00:15:37.640 america you know you can list the countries just country after country regime change operations by

00:15:43.600 the ca in fairly brutal ways and then getting regimes into power that are you know essentially

00:15:50.000 puppet regimes run by the ca presidents prime ministers assassinated and so on but always

00:15:56.720 it wasn't asked denied although you know we do have um whistleblowers like uh fletcher prouty

00:16:04.160 and his great book, The Secret Team,

00:16:07.200 which tells you a lot about how the CIA became so powerful,

00:16:10.620 totally out of bounds and out of control,

00:16:12.140 beyond its legal powers.

00:16:14.100 It's been active beyond its legal powers for decades.

00:16:17.920 He also describes how they did this.

00:16:21.140 Very simply, basically the institution

00:16:26.920 that's supposed to rein in the CIA,

00:16:29.140 they exist formally.

00:16:30.340 it's the the committees um in in the senate and congress you know there's committees house

00:16:37.860 intelligence committees and senate exactly and and that's ultimately what's supposed to provide

00:16:43.000 these checks and balances on on the secret services including of course the cia but as

00:16:49.440 fletcher prouty explains you know once the law was passed that it's a criminal to reveal whether

00:16:55.800 somebody works for the cia or not and that was passed and so now it's a secret who's at the cia

00:17:02.160 or not um and and then also it was accepted that when you are a congressman a member of senate

00:17:11.500 and you are a member of these committees you don't have to disclose that potentially huge

00:17:17.940 conflict of interest obviously at that moment you're in charge of the country because you make

00:17:25.500 sure, and that's what the CA did, that all the committee members who are supposed to

00:17:33.120 oversee the CA are all CA agents. And then there's no more checks and balances. You've got

00:17:39.300 the rule by the CA. And that seems to be what happens. Now, the book by Fletcher Prouty was

00:17:45.640 unavailable for 20 years. He wrote it in the 70s. Who was he? He, of course, had worked for the CA.

00:17:53.540 He was a top guy at the CIA.

00:17:55.400 At the end, I think his highest position was head of COVID operations at the Joint Chiefs of Staff in the White House.

00:18:02.500 He's the one who was sent to Antarctica when JFK was assassinated because deep down he was always a good guy and he wouldn't be involved in assassinating the presidents and his colleagues knew that.

00:18:15.060 So he was sent to, you know, far away as far as you could.

00:18:20.260 And when he returned, he quickly found out, oh, it was the CIA, and he started to be a whistleblower.

00:18:26.020 And the book was then unavailable for decades, but with the rise of the internet in the 90s, late 90s, of course, it's now available again.

00:18:34.160 So, you know, that shows how these things work.

00:18:37.820 So, that's the background.

00:18:38.860 But now Venezuela.

00:18:42.260 What was that?

00:18:43.120 What was that?

00:18:43.920 What was the point of that?

00:18:44.920 Well, there's several points, but in terms of the method, the big difference was there's no plausible deniability.

00:18:53.380 No, actually, it's official.

00:18:55.360 We're going to officially move in there and arrange regime change in a sovereign country.

00:19:01.400 So in other words, America is now at the stage where there's no longer felt to be a need to deny that America is doing these things and has been doing these things.

00:19:10.140 We don't need a color revolution, pretend it was a popular uprising.

00:19:13.540 We just, we want this guy to be in power, or we don't want this guy to be in power, we're going to intervene and do it.

00:19:19.480 So no more reference to the niceties of international law and ethical behavior, not necessary.

00:19:27.060 So that's an important turning point.

00:19:29.840 But of course, the other implications are, and that's where we move on to Iran and beyond.

00:19:36.940 Why Venezuela?

00:19:37.800 Well, it's the biggest, well, it has the biggest oil resources.

00:19:43.540 of course there's a there's a more detailed story i mean it's it's it's a particular type of of

00:19:49.000 crude oil very heavy one you need particularly refineries to do that it's not a cheap and easy

00:19:55.280 process so it's not the economically the best oil but it's the biggest volume okay so that is

00:20:02.440 something and by the way who's been refining most venezuelan oil and has built up a huge

00:20:09.840 array of refineries is china and that is an important indication of where all this is heading

00:20:16.580 so that was step one venezuela step two well who else is a big oil producer and source of oil and

00:20:27.740 energy for china is iran so now iran is under attack war is made on iran and of course we have

00:20:39.800 the economic fallout that other countries will suffer

00:20:45.120 as trade through the Strait of Hormuz

00:20:47.540 is severely limited, restricted.

00:20:50.320 It's not fully 100% embargoed, you know,

00:20:53.400 ships are getting through, but clearly not the majority.

00:20:57.640 And it has had an impact.

00:20:59.440 And of course, it's not just oil,

00:21:02.720 but also other things that deliver, you know, fertilizer.

00:21:06.280 A lot of the Middle Eastern countries are some of the world's largest producers of fertilizer for the world, even for the U.S., you know, delivering to the U.S., to Europe, to many countries.

00:21:18.940 And, of course, that has also been severely, the shipping of those has been restricted.

00:21:22.640 That'll have consequences next year.

00:21:24.680 That's not immediate.

00:21:25.540 It's for the next, you know, growing season because, you know, the stocks and so on.

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00:22:50.820 But do you see Venezuela and Iran as connected

00:22:54.440 in that both of those conflicts are aimed at China?

00:22:57.580 Indeed.

00:22:57.940 Yeah, that's exactly it. And that's where now I think it's good to go back again to the run up to the First World War. What was the situation? It was a situation where we had one global hegemon, Britain, running the world. Half the world was formerly part of the British Empire. Of course, not acquired through free and open elections, was it?

00:23:21.940 So military force at times extremely brutal colonial suppression for quite a long time, the greater part in the subcontinent, India, run by a for-profit enterprise, the East India Company.

00:23:42.820 So you had colonialism run by a for-profit enterprise.

00:23:46.100 It's not a good idea.

00:23:47.020 It's not very nice for people.

00:23:48.140 the estimates vary of how many million indians were killed under this rule by a for-profit company

00:23:54.460 being in charge of a you know of of um you know millions and millions of people

00:23:59.620 um and and actually the the the ruling elite in the east india company always had this view 0.98

00:24:07.180 it's too many indians we don't really need that many indians horrible views um out there too many 0.94

00:24:14.260 useless eaters this is where by the way this whole overpopulation agenda that i'd like to talk to you 1.00

00:24:19.920 about um came from it goes back to the east india company because malthus who is this famous you 0.95

00:24:29.340 know um economist talking about overpopulation yes he literally worked for the east india company

00:24:35.120 and it's known and there's many quotes of the east india company people saying 1.00

00:24:39.640 there's too many people you know we don't need all these these indians but anyway we'll come 0.98

00:24:43.760 back to it so so that's the picture of the world so that britain half the world directly under 1.00

00:24:49.740 british control in a colonial regime that clearly benefit britain not the colonial subjects um

00:24:58.380 to the same extent many suffered and many died that includes actually of course um you know one

00:25:05.160 of the first colonies of britain was ireland and you know there's the the great irish famine the

00:25:11.040 potato famine well did you know that during the potato famine ireland produced potatoes

00:25:16.280 and exported potatoes exported potatoes to england while irish people were starving

00:25:21.660 so it wasn't a lack of potatoes it was policies that resulted in this famine but anyway there

00:25:29.800 are too many irish people we have documents of british leaders saying that it's all these irish

00:25:34.520 people we don't need so many irish people so this is the background okay so britain in charge of 0.77

00:25:40.300 the world now we had this development earlier on of a new economic power and political power in

00:25:48.260 europe prussia prussia was the first modern high growth economy and it was quite breathtaking

00:25:55.920 it was high growth and prosperity for the majority of the people it was capitalism

00:26:03.560 but it was capitalism of a kind where the idea was what we wanted to be sustainable capitalism

00:26:10.020 in the sense that we don't want to have mass poverty at the same time.

00:26:14.680 We don't want this K-shaped economy where the elite is doing really well,

00:26:19.160 but the majority of the people are not doing well. 0.99

00:26:22.980 And I think it's perfectly rational to say that that's not really a great system

00:26:26.800 because you're storing up trouble for the future, right?

00:26:30.180 Yes.

00:26:30.420 You know, if the majority is actually not benefiting

00:26:32.940 and you have increasingly democratic structures,

00:26:37.480 then at some stage something will change right yes um so you want to avoid it and they did it

00:26:44.720 very early on so the first modern um uh sort of social security legislation was done in prussia

00:26:51.840 also of course the first investment in public schools properly public schools and kindergartens

00:26:57.580 and universities was in prussia it was a very modern state highly successful the middle class

00:27:03.460 was thriving it was merit-based you could move up the ladder if you put in your energy and your

00:27:09.600 efforts it will be rewarded very successful economy based of course also on the system of

00:27:15.460 decentralization local decision making and especially many small local banks lending to

00:27:21.620 small firms now prussia then morphed into um into germany in in 1871 yes the unification

00:27:32.880 Which is another or partial unification because, of course, many German states were left out, such as Austria, under international sort of influence, but also Prussia felt Austria was a rival and so on.

00:27:48.280 I mean, that's for another show.

00:27:50.220 There's a lot of interesting stuff happening there.

00:27:53.480 But the principles were also applied in now imperial Germany under essentially Prussian leadership.

00:28:02.880 And again, Imperial Germany was highly successful.

00:28:07.480 Economic growth just in the beginning of the 20th century was very high.

00:28:12.700 It was a high growth economy again.

00:28:15.120 And people benefited, prosperity, the middle class.

00:28:18.620 It was quite impressive.

00:28:21.400 The cities, beautiful, massive public investment, railway, network schools, universities, science. 1.00

00:28:29.400 You know, this is the beginning of science being German dominated.

00:28:32.880 In the first half of the 20th century, the majority of scientific publications were in German, and all the leading research was in these publications. That was where things were happening. And other countries were following, were looking at this model. Now, the place that didn't like that was the hegemon of the world, Britain. That clearly was, from their viewpoint, a rival being built up and growing.

00:28:59.660 and um it is one thing to start to lose market share because britain used to be the number one

00:29:07.640 economic power industrial revolution and you know mass production really happened first in britain

00:29:12.560 and then spread from there um to other countries so britain was in the sequence chronology of

00:29:19.740 economic development was number one but then soon after germany came and of course also at the same

00:29:25.400 time america also rose um as a emerging economy high growth economy as well let's not forget that

00:29:32.080 so but of course america is further away and was for international documents using english so

00:29:39.940 i suppose the british felt less immediately threatened by america germany is very close

00:29:46.000 and um the decision was made we've got to do something about this but a key turning point

00:29:52.980 in this and really resolving the British goals and creating this conviction that war has to be

00:30:03.440 made on Germany was the following development. So British power was projected across the globe

00:30:08.720 through the seas, the oceans, the Navy, because it was a global empire, you know, from Britain to

00:30:15.120 Australia and, you know, many parts of the world. Shipping was, of course, very important and control

00:30:21.560 of the seas

00:30:23.400 was important and that was 0.89

00:30:25.680 it was in British hands so no doubt

00:30:27.560 about that nobody could even come close

00:30:29.760 to the numbers

00:30:31.580 of ships and British naval

00:30:33.180 dominance

00:30:34.160 but then something else it happened

00:30:37.400 that

00:30:38.440 was felt as a huge threat 0.57

00:30:41.280 Germany developed this plan 0.91

00:30:43.280 in working on the continent

00:30:45.240 it's a continental power and we have this

00:30:47.160 conflict between the sort of sea power

00:30:49.440 and the continental power now

00:30:51.560 Germany made plans to, I mean, it's quite natural, to improve its access to resources.

00:30:59.440 You know, Germany didn't really have many resources.

00:31:02.920 It has coal for the steel industry.

00:31:06.160 You know, it had some input, but it still needed other raw materials and inputs from across the globe.

00:31:13.240 So how do you get that?

00:31:14.400 If it's via the seas, then essentially it's beholden to the British.

00:31:19.080 It can be blackmailed by the British.

00:31:21.560 as actually happened demonstrated in 1919 you know the first world war in germany was over in 1918

00:31:31.000 when the armistice was signed and germany i mean german leaders have always been slightly on the

00:31:36.600 naive side believing okay that's an armistice that's that the first world war is ended

00:31:41.640 germany wasn't defeated no foreign troops on german territory yet and and it disbanded its

00:31:48.680 army and his navy right but the british of course didn't disband their army and navy

00:31:53.300 and they then staged a naval blockade of germany suddenly shipping was entirely cut off as a result

00:32:01.560 one million is estimated around one million germans starved to death in the famine of 1919

00:32:05.680 which was engineered by the british just to illustrate the reality when you're beholden

00:32:11.460 to a sea power that controls the seas for your inputs and so on the one hand germany had been

00:32:17.560 aware of that risk and it was working on alternatives and on the other hand britain

00:32:22.960 had adopted countermeasures what were the countermeasures so around a million germans

00:32:29.300 yeah in 1919 and of course britain continued to fight in in on british cenotaphs of the first

00:32:36.120 world war often in the countryside you see the the first world war um defined as 1914 to 1919

00:32:44.440 because you know dead bodies were still arriving the villages you couldn't tell the

00:32:50.560 the pastor no right 1918 on the cenotaph well we were still at you know our fallen coming you know

00:32:57.920 and the villages recording the deaths in 1919 so um now this what really um changed things was

00:33:07.840 around 1900 the german plan to improve its raw material resource access to avoid these issues

00:33:16.500 that unfortunately could not be in the end avoided but not to be beholden it was trying not to be

00:33:23.460 in a situation where it's blackmailed by britain through the seas namely to have a continental

00:33:29.760 transport system and this plan was developed by on the investment side and the engineering side

00:33:38.960 siemens major german engineering company and funded by deutsche bank namely the plan to build

00:33:46.080 the berlin baghdad basra railway well here's a pretty awful statistic over 85 percent of the

00:33:53.480 so-called grass-fed beef sold in this country comes from other countries it's not american

00:33:58.780 That's no good for our farmers.

00:34:00.300 It's a tragedy for them.

00:34:02.000 And that's why it matters to be intentional about where you buy your meat.

00:34:05.640 That's why we buy our meat from Good Ranchers.

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00:34:42.100 Visit GoodRanchers.com.

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00:34:45.400 That's free meat with every order and $100 off your first three orders when you start your subscription plan this month.

00:34:51.740 Or if you just want to try it out, you can get $40 off your first order with the code TUCKER.

00:34:55.260 GoodRanchers.com American meat delivered to you. 0.67

00:35:25.260 Via Istanbul, Ottoman Empire was already an ally.

00:35:35.160 And so it's quite natural to gain access to the Gulf area and oil,

00:35:41.300 which was beginning to be clearly an important resource.

00:35:45.260 And so they started building that railway, the Berlin-Baghdad-Basra Railway.

00:35:50.700 that's when the british colonial and empire planners decided this really has to be stopped

00:35:58.600 because had that been built in time completed then it would have rendered essentially the british

00:36:05.520 naval dominance irrelevant because you can transport um energy resources raw materials you

00:36:13.040 You can sell your high-value-added output to actually the British Empire, Middle East or India, to the rest of the world.

00:36:23.000 You can ship through your own railway network without British interference.

00:36:29.620 So the British planners decided this cannot be allowed.

00:36:33.320 This has to be stopped by all means, including war.

00:36:37.220 And it was a key factor in the run-up to the First World War. 0.71

00:36:41.300 Of course, there were other factors. The German government became increasingly internationally critical of British warfare across the globe. For example, in South Africa, Britain made war on the farmers, the German and low country Dutch farmers that had settled centuries earlier in South Africa.

00:37:05.380 Created the world's first concentration camps.

00:37:07.620 Indeed, indeed. That was a British invention. There were three farmer wars. Farmer, bauer in German, in Dutch, bauer, bauer. The three bauer wars, the farmer wars. Because literally the world's number one military power made war on farmers to control this country, this area. 0.99

00:37:28.320 So why, well, it was of strategic relevance, but also oil, sorry, not other resources, gold and diamonds were found there.

00:37:38.240 And London was very keen to have those.

00:37:41.980 Actually, surprisingly, the farmers were so well organized.

00:37:44.900 They won the first farmers war and the second boar war.

00:37:50.180 And then they had to use, Britain had to use their usual devious techniques to win the third one. 0.54

00:37:56.200 murdering women and children in concentration camps. 0.61

00:37:59.480 Yes, and so, and the Kaiser,

00:38:01.660 the German leadership criticized the British intervention.

00:38:05.140 And so Britain also, I mean, these are other reasons.

00:38:07.980 What future British prime minister fought in that war?

00:38:10.580 Yes, well, Churchill had a role there

00:38:13.240 and writes about it in his,

00:38:14.700 I think he even got captured.

00:38:15.860 He did get captured and escaped.

00:38:17.340 And was treated well, enough to escape alive,

00:38:21.720 which wasn't really true for people

00:38:23.560 in the concentration camps necessarily.

00:38:24.800 so yes now so there were other factors no doubt but uh it's clear when you look at the the old

00:38:31.140 documents that anti-german sentiments whipped up um as soon as there were early plans for this

00:38:37.520 railway it didn't come from norway it was discussed already in the 18 um late 1880s 1890s and then

00:38:44.100 became a proper investment project at the at the end of the the 19th century and and you know

00:38:50.840 1900s um onwards and of course the first world war succeeded in stopping that now also just

00:38:58.800 another point before we look at what this means for today what are the lessons for today

00:39:03.440 the first world war itself was of course quite devastating for germany um also for all the other

00:39:10.100 countries involved uh the number of of people killed in the war i mean it's just horrendous

00:39:16.020 It's a huge waste of lives and resources.

00:39:20.200 Very, very sad. 0.69

00:39:22.240 Also, Germany then in the Versailles Treaty,

00:39:24.460 after the starvation of 1919,

00:39:26.600 this is meant to soften up Germany

00:39:28.600 and then impose the Versailles, you know,

00:39:31.540 strange rules on Germany.

00:39:34.460 Germany would be taken apart.

00:39:35.740 One quarter of Germany would be lost

00:39:37.520 and given to other countries.

00:39:39.580 Lots of Germans, millions of Germans

00:39:40.860 would now live in new countries,

00:39:42.480 newly created by the British,

00:39:43.640 such as Czechoslovakia and so on.

00:39:46.020 And so a lot of hardship followed this. Despite that, they couldn't essentially change the fact that Germany was still scientifically leader in terms of engineering and production, was a leader in the world and was still a rival of Britain because the education system also hadn't really been destroyed.

00:40:11.240 Right. And so, you know, a second round was needed, another world war was needed. And for this, interestingly, a lot of investment took place in Germany in the 1920s that allowed a quick revival. And of course, there's other issues, how Hitler came to power. If we have time, we should talk about how did he actually come to power. When you look at money and banking and central banking, you get some interesting new insights. 0.84

00:40:35.560 So we also had investment in Germany, particularly by America, American companies, ITT, General Motors, Ford,

00:40:43.560 and then also banking, Brown Brothers Harriman, where Prescott Scott was from the, sorry, Prescott Bush from the Bush family was active, supporting Germany.

00:40:57.100 Now something very similar is happening or has been happening in recent decades.

00:41:02.940 Of course, the post-Second World War global hegemon is America. 0.66

00:41:08.040 It's taken on that leadership role from Britain,

00:41:11.340 originally even with its own colonies.

00:41:13.300 I mean, there have been American colonies,

00:41:14.820 whether Philippines or other places.

00:41:17.840 And it's adopted the key policies and policy tools from Britain. 0.62

00:41:24.200 So which country is the new Germany that is a rival to America? 0.74

00:41:29.900 Well, it's China.

00:41:30.620 and china has been um working on ensuring its supply of raw material inputs in the last

00:41:42.680 particularly the last 15 years so in many ways it's a sort of new strategy but it is very much

00:41:47.880 the same situation as germany was in it it didn't want to be beholden to shipping uh under british

00:41:54.100 control could be blackmailed. Of course, America is dominating the seas and China doesn't want to 0.87

00:42:01.200 be beholden to America. And that includes, of course, the Strait of Hormuz. It also includes

00:42:05.600 the Strait of Malacca, where even more Chinese trade goes through. That's another of these 0.96

00:42:11.100 potential choke points, as they call it, where they can choke China. So China has been working 0.91

00:42:17.500 on alternative routes. What is the modern Berlin-Baghdad railway? Well, it is the Belt and

00:42:26.160 Road Initiative, which is the Chinese president Xi Jinping's really landmark milestone foreign

00:42:37.100 policy initiative started 11 years ago. On the one hand, it offers an interesting alternative

00:42:45.940 to participating countries, many developing countries

00:42:49.940 to the IMF World Bank system

00:42:52.140 that I hope we have time to discuss

00:42:55.100 because that system has been designed 0.88

00:42:57.460 to keep developing countries from developing

00:43:01.660 to prevent development and to keep them poor

00:43:04.360 but effective cheap exporters of raw materials

00:43:07.600 according to the British colonial model.

00:43:10.080 So it's like the modern version

00:43:11.680 of the colonial British empire

00:43:12.980 is this American-dominated IMF World Bank rule.

00:43:17.780 And the Belt and Road Initiative, on the one hand,

00:43:19.920 is an alternative that can be offered to countries.

00:43:22.880 And many countries, including in Africa,

00:43:24.740 have joined this for this reason.

00:43:25.960 Can you describe what it is for people who don't know

00:43:28.900 about Belt and Road?

00:43:30.340 Yes.

00:43:31.020 So there's actually many different names for this.

00:43:36.320 At one stage, it was called the One Belt Initiative,

00:43:39.900 then Belt and Road Initiative.

00:43:41.040 sometimes called the silk the modern silk road the new silk road it is about um on the one hand

00:43:48.460 logistics to ensure stable um effective uh supply routes between china and um the rest of the world

00:44:01.660 to a large extent on the continent but not entirely there's also shipping belt and road

00:44:06.500 across the seas

00:44:07.920 and it's also a way for China

00:44:12.180 to switch out of the dollar

00:44:13.940 so it is linked to the Nixon shock

00:44:16.820 what happened there

00:44:17.540 the dollar becoming the petrodollar

00:44:21.020 in the years afterwards

00:44:22.720 under Henry Kissinger's interventions

00:44:25.680 the petrodollar Saudi Arabia

00:44:27.540 being essentially made part of the United States

00:44:29.720 only selling oil against the dollar

00:44:33.260 but also reinvesting 80% of its foreign exchange reserves

00:44:36.340 in U.S. treasuries, that petrodollar system is increasingly being challenged by other countries

00:44:44.220 and of course by China, the BRICS countries, and the Belt and Road Initiative is a counterparty

00:44:50.280 to that. And likewise, you know, counterparty to this IMF World Bank system, which is really

00:44:56.580 the continuation of the Bretton Woods system, which is the dollar dominant system. So China

00:45:03.920 China had this problem beforehand that, you know, as a successful exporter, it's earning foreign exchange, but mostly it's earning dollars, what to do with the dollars. And of course, it was investing like at the time, most countries in US treasuries, which suited America, fine. But China decided sort of 15 years ago, well, we need an alternative to this. We can't keep investing in US treasuries because, and very few people know this, when other countries buy US treasuries,

00:45:32.480 all they're actually getting is a promise on a promise because you know treasury is an iou is a

00:45:40.560 promise right but do you know that china doesn't even get those promises the u.s treasury issues

00:45:48.220 government bonds treasury bonds but china doesn't get those why well there's a rule that they're

00:45:55.500 held by the federal reserve bank of new york in custody for foreign governments so it's a promise

00:46:01.620 on a promise so that China can't go with these papers and sell them somewhere without permission

00:46:09.180 of US entities, the Federal Reserve. Now, some may say, well, that's just a technicality. That's

00:46:15.260 not an issue. What we've seen in reality is can be very, very important. For example, in the so-called

00:46:21.960 Asian crisis, 1997-1998, which was very much engineered by the system IMF and central banks.

00:46:34.080 I was sent on an official mission to Thailand in 1998 to analyze this and advise the Thai

00:46:42.480 government from the Asian Development Bank's perspective. Based on my analysis, I concluded

00:46:50.180 that it was a plot by the local central bank in thailand against the country together with the

00:46:56.100 imf um it was a situation to create um you know a boom bust cycle and then bankrupt thailand and

00:47:04.280 ask the imf to come in and then the imf asked for thai assets to be sold to foreigners you know

00:47:11.120 thailand was doing well until then um and then it had to sell well it was asked to sell its banks

00:47:17.900 and its industry to foreigners very cheaply

00:47:20.200 while the currency had been devalued, right?

00:47:21.920 So, you know, just looking at the big picture outcome,

00:47:25.680 that's what he was meant to be about.

00:47:28.920 The mechanism is also quite interesting. 0.63

00:47:30.660 It's the same mechanism they put onto Germany 0.80

00:47:33.180 in the early 1930s to get Hitler into power. 0.65

00:47:37.820 You know, Thailand had a savings surplus.

00:47:40.380 It had, you know, successful exports

00:47:43.400 and was a reasonably high-growth economy,

00:47:48.260 but it was brought down very badly in this setup.

00:47:55.080 And this started with the central bank.

00:47:56.440 The central bank saying,

00:47:58.180 okay, we'll have a fixed exchange rate against the dollar.

00:48:01.200 Everything's safe, never worry about the exchange rate.

00:48:03.280 We have foreign currency reserves.

00:48:04.720 We can maintain this Thai baht dollar exchange rate.

00:48:08.580 And at the same time, as I could show in my work on this,

00:48:11.700 they raised the domestic interest rate

00:48:15.560 above the dollar interest rate

00:48:17.860 and allowed companies

00:48:20.100 you know current account open

00:48:22.060 deregulated allowed companies to raise money in dollars

00:48:26.480 well if there's a fixed exchange rate

00:48:28.920 the dollar interest rate is lower than the domestic interest rate

00:48:32.760 they're basically the Thai Center Bank

00:48:35.020 telling Thai companies borrow in dollars please

00:48:37.720 which doesn't make sense

00:48:39.920 it's not a good idea

00:48:41.420 Even short-term borrowing in dollars was increased by the central bank in this setup.

00:48:47.740 And then all you need, as then foreign debt increases and increased and increased,

00:48:52.800 all you need is a bit of a setback in the economic growth, in exports, for example.

00:48:58.080 Foreign exchange reserve going down a bit, international investors,

00:49:00.360 this is not sustainable, building up this debt pile for no good reason.

00:49:06.860 And that's what happens.

00:49:07.700 Then, of course, speculators attack the Thai baht.

00:49:10.920 And the central bank defended the BART, which meant it was selling foreign exchange reserves, selling dollars, buying the BART.

00:49:17.600 Of course, the dollar pile went smaller and smaller until you run out.

00:49:22.140 They defended the BART, they said, until the last dollar.

00:49:26.640 And then what?

00:49:27.360 Well, then the BART collapses.

00:49:29.320 And this is what happened.

00:49:30.820 So it was a crazy strategy.

00:49:33.000 I also found out that during the same time, the central bank even imposed loan growth quotas.

00:49:39.060 you know this is the window guidance central bank um informal guidance of bank credit which

00:49:45.400 when used properly is part of the high growth system you can make sure that bank credit goes

00:49:51.060 to productive business investment leads to growth but you can also use it for bad things as i show

00:49:56.540 in my book princes of the yen the bank of japan used this mechanism to force banks to increase

00:50:02.360 real estate speculative loans create a real estate bubble which you can use to boss the system

00:50:08.340 and and so the this credit guidance system was also used by the thai central bank

00:50:13.600 to exacerbate this um this crisis or this uh impending crisis and then once the crisis

00:50:21.240 happened everyone oh we need the imf to come in and what did the imf demand well you have to

00:50:25.740 restrict credit creation now you have to tighten everything up um and restrict fiscal policy

00:50:32.940 everything has to be restricted. So recession, get a huge recession. Industrial output collapsed

00:50:39.760 by 25%. The Thai bot now without foreign exchange reserves just fell and fell. Thailand became very

00:50:45.960 cheap and the IMF demands, well, we'll help you, but there's conditionality. You have to now

00:50:50.160 sell your assets to foreign strategic partners. I advise them, don't do that. Get out of the IMF

00:50:56.120 program. Here's how you can get back on your feet. It took them maybe two years, but then they took

00:51:01.120 the advice and they ended the imf program because it was it was clearly um a system to take down

00:51:07.400 yeah it's a control mechanism to take the country yeah take the country down so um the belt and

00:51:14.140 road initiative offered and continues to offer alternatives to this fairly um you know predatory

00:51:24.100 predatory, this is the word I was looking for, system run via the IMF and the World Bank and

00:51:30.700 other institutions that has not helped developing countries. And so many countries think, well,

00:51:37.200 let's try that. At the same time, it offered China the possibility to diversify its dollar reserves.

00:51:44.480 As part of this initiative, it would give money to other countries, but for particular projects

00:51:51.360 that build up infrastructure

00:51:53.240 and therefore also helps these countries.

00:51:54.740 So China has spent billions

00:51:56.040 on building really shiny new roads

00:51:59.400 and highways and bridges

00:52:00.680 and railway connections,

00:52:02.460 transport, ports,

00:52:03.820 massive investments in ports.

00:52:06.920 And of course,

00:52:07.800 all these receiver countries

00:52:09.740 have been to some.

00:52:11.020 They're very proud of this

00:52:11.960 and they look really impressive projects,

00:52:14.480 modern and helping the country.

00:52:17.520 And the countries can use this

00:52:18.640 for their own economic development.

00:52:21.360 and so it's been attractive and many countries have joined

00:52:27.140 although of course also countermeasures have been started

00:52:31.840 and some countries were put under pressure to drop out again

00:52:34.760 it wasn't popular when Italy wanted to sign up

00:52:38.180 or Hungary wanted to sign up with this

00:52:39.840 and they were put under pressure by the EU and US parties as well

00:52:45.040 but it's been quite successful

00:52:47.660 and so of course a key strategic partner has always been

00:52:51.200 Iran as a oil supplier to China and we can tell that the war on Iran is part of this countermeasure

00:53:04.100 that's really in operation against China because in these bombing campaigns against Iran

00:53:12.800 What was also bombed were Belt and Road infrastructure projects, bridges, railway connections, and other parts of this supply structure.

00:53:28.640 And so, you know, why would America do that?

00:53:31.780 Well, it is to get in the way of the modern Berlin-Baghdad railway.

00:53:37.880 So, it goes up through Central Asia.

00:53:40.760 Yes, of course. The modern Silk Road, there's many Silk Roads, of course. There's one via Russia further north and further south, several. And it's the similar viewpoint. I mean, there's actually a British theoretician, Mackinder, who talked about this heartland theory that whoever controls Eurasia controls the world.

00:54:00.260 And that's really why Britain first was very keen to prevent Germany from collaborating with countries further east, Ottoman Empire, Russia in particular, and also prevent the buildup of transport infrastructure that, of course, fosters closer economic and political connections.

00:54:22.260 connections. And it's the same, of course, America has adopted that strategy. There's a famous quote

00:54:29.560 by, what's his name, Stratfor Friedman, saying that, you know, the key goal in the 20th century

00:54:37.540 has been to prevent Germany from collaborating with Russia. And America has also pursued that

00:54:45.220 and very successfully, you know, Germany is not collaborating with Russia, even though it would

00:54:48.820 been both countries interests to put it mildly yeah exactly and and likewise in asia of course

00:54:54.460 the equivalent that he didn't mention that but i think i would add that uh it's been a key goal

00:55:00.500 of america to prevent japan and china from collaborating yes because if they did you know

00:55:06.740 who needs america in the pacific so of course america has always been telling the japanese 0.60

00:55:10.800 oh don't trust the chinese you know they hate you and it's been telling china oh don't trust 0.52

00:55:14.780 the japanese they hate you and i don't think the chinese trust the japanese for other reasons too

00:55:19.640 i think actually the two countries get along better than people recognize and it's not just

00:55:28.520 the taiwanese population that is has very favorable memories of being part of japan until 1945

00:55:35.100 and most taiwanese people i know speak always very fondly of japan it's also chinese youth

00:55:41.760 They think Japan is a cool, fun place and quite exciting.

00:55:46.580 And of course, there is a whole generation, Deng Xiaoping's generation of Chinese leaders who know the great things Japan did for China.

00:55:55.460 Because when he traveled to Japan to seek the secret of high economic growth, you know, when Deng Xiaoping came to power, he asked the Japanese for that.

00:56:06.500 And the Japanese didn't have to tell him, but they did.

00:56:09.480 not just that 0.94

00:56:10.980 they sent their key guy

00:56:12.400 who was

00:56:12.860 high growth

00:56:13.760 1960s

00:56:14.760 high growth planner

00:56:16.140 to China

00:56:18.040 and he came with

00:56:19.260 you know

00:56:20.060 another 11

00:56:20.700 12 people

00:56:21.580 top planners

00:56:22.620 and they did

00:56:23.840 the Chinese high growth system

00:56:25.260 for Deng Xiaoping

00:56:25.980 together with the

00:56:27.160 you know

00:56:28.300 300 top Chinese colleagues

00:56:30.180 so Japan did some

00:56:32.020 great things for China

00:56:33.000 China wouldn't be 0.85

00:56:34.240 where it is today 1.00

00:56:34.980 without the help of Japan 0.79

00:56:36.120 and that's 0.99

00:56:36.940 you know

00:56:37.200 and of course

00:56:37.540 people know this

00:56:38.280 on both sides

00:56:39.920 So I think the two countries actually get along better than people realize.

00:56:43.340 It's just not politically correct to mention that because it's not supposed to be like this.

00:56:48.760 Yes.

00:56:49.320 So this is really the context in which we have to see what's happening with this war on Iran.

00:56:55.720 I think ultimately the goal is China because unfortunately America has key decision makers, let's say.

00:57:04.060 It's not ordinary American people, obviously, what we're talking about here.

00:57:06.540 But some key decision makers in America, influential people that influence American policy have decided that there should be antagonism between America and China.

00:57:19.060 there's all these you know military strategic plans and china is in these military plans

00:57:26.480 described as a key threat even more important than russia which explains some of the

00:57:34.080 unfriendly policies towards china in the past and it is a parallel development because china

00:57:42.240 You know, when you look back at the British colonial rule and then Germany rising, Germany was identified as the threat and then measures were taken, including a World War, a Second World War, which shows you the extent to which these planners would go.

00:58:02.220 China seems to be the modern equivalent. 0.52

00:58:04.260 It really is a challenge economically to America, but if we only think in economic terms, it's not really something to worry about because economics is about embracing this and competition is fine, it's a good thing. 0.69

00:58:17.460 And if you have the right economic policies, America can really thrive on working with China as partly happened in the past.

00:58:27.040 but you see also there's something sinister going on because it wasn't really

00:58:32.740 necessary for america to transfer most of the manufacturing to china in the first place this

00:58:39.800 reminds me of the american investment in germany in the 1920s and 30s right of course massive

00:58:45.520 american investment is taking place in china and technology has been transferred to china

00:58:50.420 when it was needed and helpful now in many ways you know there's not many areas left where china

00:58:56.480 needs foreign technology because it's very much ahead of the game in a lot of them not all but

00:59:01.000 you know in quite a lot but clearly that was very important so why did this happen i think it's the

00:59:06.540 same reason why it happened in germany you know you need if you're planning for world war you also

00:59:11.260 need to make sure the opponent is built up first to have a proper war um and um that tells you

00:59:18.080 about the sort of the goals that i play here you really think so it looks like it i mean you know

00:59:24.140 I'm always reluctant to come to these conclusions.

00:59:26.480 But, you know, it was a bit much, wasn't it?

00:59:29.940 The American investment in China,

00:59:32.160 shifting all this production to China for short-term profit,

00:59:36.660 you know, or you've got higher margins, we do it that way.

00:59:38.760 Well, you're losing all these jobs

00:59:39.980 and you're creating all these problems for America,

00:59:42.160 for ordinary people, for the middle class,

00:59:44.100 for the country, and for the long-term.

00:59:46.080 Why are you doing this?

00:59:47.520 Well, some people were aware of this

00:59:50.120 and still were part of this thrust.

00:59:52.660 and it wasn't slowed down.

00:59:54.920 So it was intentional, but it was unnecessary.

00:59:57.960 It wasn't really necessary to do this.

00:59:59.640 So there were considerations to make sure China would be built up.

01:00:05.760 And that actually, you may be getting back to what you said at the outset

01:00:09.320 about a small percentage of the population has goals

01:00:12.880 that are incomprehensible to normal people because they're so evil. 1.00

01:00:17.700 Right, and China is actually an interesting case study 1.00

01:00:21.620 to come to that conclusion too

01:00:23.240 if we look at the earlier phase

01:00:25.360 of Chinese post-war development

01:00:27.380 when Mao was in charge

01:00:29.660 it was

01:00:31.260 more or less a dictatorship

01:00:32.640 it was a communist moralist dictatorship

01:00:35.300 and Mao took

01:00:37.280 in a very

01:00:39.060 unpleasant policies

01:00:41.340 clearly and a lot of people

01:00:43.200 died

01:00:43.740 now there's always this

01:00:46.960 historians view that oh

01:00:48.940 when people died that clearly wasn't intentional

01:00:51.400 but some facts about this

01:00:55.740 are very disturbing

01:00:56.700 first of all

01:00:57.500 let's not forget

01:00:58.160 that Mao

01:00:59.260 indisputably

01:01:00.900 was put in power

01:01:02.760 by foreign interests

01:01:04.100 that's not even denied

01:01:05.420 well what does Russian mean

01:01:07.500 I mean

01:01:07.880 it was certainly

01:01:09.380 Soviet

01:01:09.800 and perhaps Bolshevik 0.79

01:01:12.160 would come closer to it

01:01:13.560 because you see a direct

01:01:14.620 lineage there

01:01:16.280 if you look at the individuals

01:01:17.660 yes

01:01:18.060 go back to

01:01:18.920 they go back to

01:01:19.680 the sort of

01:01:20.160 Bolshevik movement

01:01:21.340 which you could even call anti-russian at some stage i mean it was clearly they murdered a lot 1.00

01:01:26.780 of russians so yeah it's fair and and so there is that link um so he was put in in place by foreign

01:01:34.640 interests on the one hand and at the same time then you look at the policies he took

01:01:40.480 and i want to focus i mean there are many crazy policies like cultural revolution

01:01:45.560 which in many ways is being replayed nowadays you know this this cultural marxism is a cultural

01:01:51.520 revolution where you you mess with people's heads it's like a psyop you know red is not red and

01:01:56.600 black is not black you know you have to denounce yourself and denounce the facts and and you know

01:02:02.500 declare untruths to be true sort of thing a man is not a man what is a woman you know doesn't 0.89

01:02:07.400 sound familiar it does um that's that that was also big operation so-called cultural revolution

01:02:12.780 and then we had this great leap forward which is economically greatly backward

01:02:16.520 and then we had this famine which is quite a mysterious thing so i want to just briefly

01:02:22.920 talk about this famine and it's relevant for us today because again ordinary people think oh

01:02:30.840 we couldn't have leaders who plan horrible things for us that wouldn't happen you know they wouldn't

01:02:36.380 intentionally do it they have good intentions they don't want they wouldn't never want to starve

01:02:40.340 80 million people to death, would they? Well, here's the counter case. Here's a case where 80

01:02:46.540 million people were starved to death. It was covered up for a long time in the numbers.

01:02:52.380 The more research has been done, it's been going up and up and up. We're around 80 million now.

01:02:56.400 First, it was only 2 million, 10 million, 15 million. It got higher and higher. And it seems

01:03:01.320 to be in this order, which is phenomenal. I mean, this is really very, very sad and very tragic.

01:03:06.860 What happened? What is this famine in China? It started in a year when there was a bumper crop. So good harvest. Now, if you want to engineer a famine, it's not a great starting point.

01:03:24.540 and but because it happened at this point it makes clearer that it was an intentional

01:03:31.780 starvation of millions of people because you had to take a particular combination of very specific

01:03:40.100 policies to get this disastrous outcome and they're all policies there's actually no doubt

01:03:46.200 no historian says it wasn't policies that led to this famine they just all whether western or

01:03:52.100 Chinese historians, they all say, well, but sure, it was a mistake. They didn't intend this.

01:03:57.380 Well, when it's such a very specific combination of highly unusual policies,

01:04:05.480 which are, however, unnecessary to have this outcome of a famine, then you really have to

01:04:11.300 wonder, you know, and it wasn't under duress. They were freely taken. So there is no doubt

01:04:17.060 that it was a policy-induced outcome it's the debate is was it intentional or not well i'll

01:04:23.340 give you some of the ingredients of this famine so if you want to start a famine when you have

01:04:28.140 bumper crops you've got to do some things i mean um otherwise there won't be a famine

01:04:34.360 for example what can you do think about it what can you do um well we could we could um actually

01:04:42.120 pass some laws that round up all the harvest workers and transport them from the rural areas

01:04:49.780 to the cities so let's do that well that's what they did and i know from growing up in bavaria

01:04:56.300 you know when the the harvest comes that's when the the the school boys and school girls and

01:05:01.420 students getting asked can you please help the farmers this you know we've got a big crop

01:05:05.880 we need helpers and you earn some money per hour which is nice everyone like that's that's the

01:05:10.700 harvest time, right? But if you divert millions of people, forcibly transporting them away from

01:05:16.820 the rural areas at harvest time or just around harvest time, that's certainly something you can

01:05:22.560 do to disrupt the delivery of food in that year. So that was taken. Now, it turned out to be not

01:05:34.640 enough because you know farmers are resourceful and partly that you know that they had uh ways to

01:05:41.200 still farm a lot harvest a lot of the um of the crops now um there is a natural or you know

01:05:50.120 seemingly natural way you could reduce a harvest and if you read the bible in bad years you know

01:05:57.300 horrible things happened like swarms of locusts come and eat up the crops yes which is actually

01:06:04.340 clearly not every year it's unusual it's so unusual that when it happens you know it's

01:06:09.920 recorded for thousands of years like in the bible wouldn't it be nice to arrange for that

01:06:14.840 well in a bumper crop year right if you if your goal is to have a famine

01:06:20.320 of course that's not so easy to arrange right is it particularly at a day and age where we did not

01:06:27.360 yet have the insect laboratories where they breed various forms of genetically modified

01:06:32.320 you know insects that could do all sorts of evil stuff you know that that wasn't yet happening

01:06:37.860 but also it's unlikely that it would be um a swarm swarms and swarms of locusts millions of

01:06:45.040 locusts eating the harvest because in china there was a natural enemy of the you know giant

01:06:52.960 grasshoppers the locusts namely the ordinary um asian tree sparrow yes and and in fact in

01:07:02.260 China is estimated as there's around 700 million of them,

01:07:06.680 the tree sparrows.

01:07:07.700 And they would, you know, in the development of the locusts,

01:07:11.840 you know, they intervene at the right point

01:07:13.360 and they eat them and the larvae and so on.

01:07:17.600 So you really, if you wanted to have swans of locusts,

01:07:20.340 you would need, I mean, nobody would think this up surely,

01:07:25.220 but you would need a very specific policy

01:07:27.840 that would declare the ordinary Asian tree sparrow 0.99

01:07:33.220 enemy number one that has to be killed and exterminated. 0.99

01:07:37.880 And of course, that's what Mao did. 0.99

01:07:41.320 And what happened was swarms of locusts

01:07:44.040 destroyed quite a bit of the harvest.

01:07:48.200 That's increasingly being studied.

01:07:49.960 And it's quite clear that such a specific policy

01:07:52.620 in this chain and this natural biological cycle

01:07:56.480 where you intervene and destroy the enemy of the locusts

01:08:00.860 as a specific policy that surely can't be by accident.

01:08:04.660 Now, still, it wasn't quite enough for an 80 million famine.

01:08:08.560 So now you need the usual Soviet-style policies,

01:08:12.380 which is to sequester the harvest.

01:08:18.680 You know, the government moves in and seizes the harvest

01:08:21.980 and is taken from the people and is not being sold.

01:08:24.360 or some of it is exported abroad.

01:08:26.320 To Romania, exactly.

01:08:28.780 And then some farmers have some storage

01:08:32.240 because actually farmers always think of next year's crop.

01:08:35.360 Do you want to keep some to plant next year?

01:08:38.020 That's before genetically modified, you know,

01:08:40.320 things were invented to destroy that natural cycle

01:08:43.860 of farmer's behavior.

01:08:46.340 So they went after those farmers.

01:08:48.660 anyone who stored food was declared a bourgeois hoarder and an enemy of the people and was

01:08:57.900 severely punished and of course the food and the grain and all the storage was taken away

01:09:03.420 so put all this together and of course on top of that various communist campaigns

01:09:07.840 the famine took place and it was such a horrible disaster and as I said we're around 80 million

01:09:16.120 as an estimate of people who starved as a policy result.

01:09:20.160 So we have to realize that our leaders don't mind killing us. 0.79

01:09:26.880 In fact, they seem quite keen on killing ordinary people. 0.80

01:09:31.240 And perhaps one more link to China where we learn these things is, 0.74

01:09:35.280 you know, Deng Xiaoping, and I spoke about him last time

01:09:40.620 we had our discussion, how he introduced the high growth model

01:09:43.880 And Japan helped him, as I said, and I think that was great.

01:09:50.060 And he realized, and the Japanese told him, you need many, many banks.

01:09:54.180 You need thousands of small local banks that lend to small firms.

01:09:58.940 It's decentralized decision-making.

01:10:01.140 You know, instead of the Soviet originally started out with one bank, right, central bank only, central decision-making doesn't work well.

01:10:07.460 the prussian principle of high growth which all these east asian high growth economies adopted is

01:10:13.040 decentralization the subsidiarity principle decisions on the local level there they can be

01:10:18.420 made flexibly as the situation demands and appropriately central planning is not informed

01:10:24.800 enough can't react quickly enough and doesn't work and also the incentive structure is wrong

01:10:28.060 because you know what's worse what's worse than being given an order that you know is

01:10:33.760 is really counterproductive and useless and you still have to do it it's so frustrating

01:10:37.360 And that's, of course, why the Soviet system failed and the Prussian decentralization worked.

01:10:42.740 I mean, there are studies comparing the German army with the British army in the First World War and the German army with the American army in the Second World War.

01:10:51.420 And they conclude that the German army was always far more efficient and effective with smaller numbers, better outcome.

01:10:59.760 And they found it's because decision making was delegated to the lowest level.

01:11:03.540 the officer in the field had the decision-making power there was always the the goal is given

01:11:10.600 but how you get there the officer in the field had to decide of course that meant that you had

01:11:16.600 to train people better but that's a good thing if you've got yes better trained people and they

01:11:21.500 make the decisions that's the right motivation then people are also motivated they know that

01:11:25.720 they make a difference and their decisions will shape things and they can do the appropriate

01:11:30.060 because in the fog of war things change so quickly central planning just cannot work

01:11:33.400 likewise that was then applied in prussia and in germany in the economy through decentralized

01:11:38.480 decision making so not one central bank but thousands of small banks lending to small firms

01:11:44.620 credit creation money creation in the banking system for productive invested for productive

01:11:49.620 business investment you get job creation growth and prosperity and china did that

01:11:53.400 And so this is the Chinese high growth system, which Deng Xiaoping implemented.

01:12:03.520 And the rest is history.

01:12:05.080 40 years of high economic growth, lifting more people out of poverty than anywhere in history.

01:12:12.140 800 million people lifted out of, according to the official definitions, lifted out of poverty.

01:12:18.640 This has never happened before in history in such a short time period in one generation.

01:12:21.740 That's what China achieved using the Japanese model, which is essentially the German model of high growth.

01:12:28.600 And so I was always surprised that Deng Xiaoping, who was behind this and did this really well,

01:12:34.720 and he's a good manager, he was always a humble person,

01:12:37.980 not this narcissistic type that will take policies that are selfish but really bad for ordinary people.

01:12:45.720 He was not like this. He was a good leader in many ways, as far as I can tell.

01:12:48.760 um but he he also is the one who took the one child policy and we know that that's not that

01:12:57.260 wasn't a good policy also if you think about it it's a sort of policy that you can see western

01:13:02.520 decision makers uh western leaders liking like i mean there's lots of western leaders in history

01:13:07.740 starting from napoleon uh talking about oh if china you know wakes up and then they keep growing 0.93

01:13:14.780 population growth and china will take over the world and you get this western sort of paranoia 0.96

01:13:20.700 you know and to impose a policy that oh only one child is allowed sounds very much like a western 0.98

01:13:27.800 idea to me that's always the sense i had like why would a chinese leader particularly a high growth

01:13:32.120 leader the high growth model means also you want high population growth population growth is good

01:13:36.380 you want people to have um children you want to educate them well because that that's what leads

01:13:42.460 to growth. Growth comes from productivity, technology, new ideas. 100% of ideas come

01:13:47.200 from people. We need people. Of course, you know, now they're trying to replace that with AI, but

01:13:53.480 that has its severe limitations and risk and dangers. So you want more people normally,

01:14:01.580 but Deng Xiaoping imposed this one-child policy. Then I looked into how did this happen?

01:14:07.500 And it turns out that it was early on when he was implementing the high growth system from Japan, the particular person who was asked, who was invited to China as the key helper with this high growth system was a very able Japanese economic planner, high growth planner of the 1960s.

01:14:32.920 And in 1978, when Deng Xiaoping came to Japan, he asked, he was told by the Japanese, okay, talk to this guy.

01:14:38.460 And he was our man in the 60s, now retired.

01:14:42.700 He may be able to help you.

01:14:45.360 And Deng Xiaoping asked him, can you please come to China soon?

01:14:48.860 Like now?

01:14:50.080 I need you now.

01:14:52.120 Three days later, he was in China with, you know, there was 12, including other colleagues that he brought along.

01:14:59.820 Now, who was he?

01:15:00.400 His name is Okita, family name, Saburo.

01:15:03.760 Saburo Okita.

01:15:06.240 Now, by that time, he had been recruited by the Club of Rome

01:15:10.520 into the Club of Rome's executive committee.

01:15:14.860 What is the Club of Rome?

01:15:16.480 Yeah, that is a very good question.

01:15:18.000 What actually is the Club of Rome?

01:15:19.600 Well, it's also an institution that, you know,

01:15:22.200 this really big turning point in 1971,

01:15:24.740 that's when the Club of Rome entered the world stage, so to speak.

01:15:29.000 that's the year the u.s defaulted on its gold obligations yes with its report um the limits to

01:15:36.020 growth this allegedly limits the growth of course haven't we heard this before i mean this whole

01:15:41.920 degrowth movement climate change all sorts growth is bad and we need to limit that limits to growth

01:15:46.620 we've reached the limits to growth this has basically been the the story in the media ever

01:15:51.060 since the club of rome came out with this report so the club of rome was founded by and it's not

01:15:58.360 really disputed by rockefeller supported by rockefeller certainly in the early years that

01:16:03.380 was very clear they met in a rockefeller villa in italy and you know all that um and then very

01:16:11.160 early on this executive committee um drafted also mr okita from japan which is very ironic because

01:16:21.080 he's the high growth expert but the club of rome's two main messages were economic growth is bad and

01:16:28.500 we need to reduce it we've reached the limits we're going to destroy the planet blah blah blah

01:16:32.180 we need low growth and secondly are too many people on this planet in fact very much regurgitating

01:16:40.280 the views of the east india company leadership and its hired economist malthus thomas malthus

01:16:47.640 famous for his prediction

01:16:50.040 population growth

01:16:51.460 it's too high

01:16:52.640 there's not enough food

01:16:54.460 we're going to starve

01:16:55.160 we need to reduce

01:16:56.020 the population growth

01:16:57.720 sometimes

01:16:58.640 what you read is

01:17:00.560 sounds more like

01:17:01.300 we need to reduce

01:17:02.040 the population

01:17:02.940 and of course

01:17:03.340 that's what they did

01:17:04.000 in India 0.67

01:17:04.380 quite clearly by result

01:17:07.160 but to a large extent

01:17:08.360 intentionally

01:17:08.800 again these policy decisions

01:17:10.060 famines and other

01:17:11.200 taking people's livelihoods

01:17:13.460 away

01:17:13.600 destroying the textile industry

01:17:15.000 in India

01:17:15.440 millions of people

01:17:16.280 mrna shots you know well the modern that's the modern version so um this is the message of the

01:17:22.400 club of rome and the club of rome drafted this high growth expert now i think he was fairly

01:17:30.080 innocent and you know he was at this stage he was you know retired um and he was called up by this

01:17:39.080 you know selective selective sort of international body that has a good reputation to be in the

01:17:45.260 executive committee and he agrees now many japanese people want to be very international

01:17:49.180 and all this nice famous people are there backing this so i'll join i don't think he was really part

01:17:55.080 of the nefarious activities that are also going on but it's clever from the club of rome and its

01:18:02.440 backers rockefeller foundation viewpoint because he's the high growth guy to get him in the executive

01:18:08.960 committee of a club that argues for low growth of you know low economic growth and low population

01:18:14.820 growth really is certainly a way of getting a handle on the high growth model and making sure

01:18:20.520 that it can be suppressed in the future that's the job of the IMF and the World Bank for developing

01:18:26.120 countries not allowed to adopt the high growth policies and when it comes to China effectively

01:18:32.700 I think whether an explicit deal or just an implicit deal happened namely Deng Xiaoping was

01:18:40.140 allowed to run the high growth model also attracted American investment so you know that

01:18:46.680 that was allowed to happen but there seems to have been a required payoff and that is to impose

01:18:54.580 the one child policy so at least implement half of the club of Rome agenda and the other half

01:19:03.080 well we'll come to that later sort of thing could have been the attitude when I looked into

01:19:07.280 So, how did Deng Xiaoping adopt this one-child policy?

01:19:10.680 How did it exactly happen?

01:19:12.800 Turns out that he took the advice of a Chinese statistician, mathematician,

01:19:20.260 who was working for the military,

01:19:23.160 doing complicated ballistic calculations, you know,

01:19:26.500 so using mathematics, which is pure logic.

01:19:29.600 And he did, then he was asked to do population growth trajectories, okay?

01:19:37.280 and of course they were scary and he came to this conclusion we need to

01:19:44.840 restrict population growth now the key thing is this and I call this the great

01:19:49.460 deception he was using simulations and if you look at okay what did this

01:19:55.020 military statistician mathematician what did he use what sort of approach what

01:20:01.640 sort of model he used the club of rome model now why was a chinese sort of military related

01:20:08.320 mathematician using the club of rome model of course it was in the west it was propagated

01:20:12.000 it could just be by chance that he just saw the headlines in some western publications

01:20:16.400 that's a leading model we'll use that but or maybe other channels to do with rockefeller visiting

01:20:22.500 china and and who knows but we know the result that he used as a fact the club of rome's

01:20:31.520 model which is entirely simulation and that is a great deception because you can make up any

01:20:37.420 simulation of anything and present it but it's used to convince people and give the impression

01:20:43.380 that it's factual and this is used in economics it's used for growth trajectories um it's used

01:20:51.040 for um population growth trajectories to show that it's unsustainable and it's used of course

01:20:57.320 for climate scenarios

01:20:59.120 and it's used for declaring pandemics,

01:21:01.860 you know, how the virus grows.

01:21:03.380 It turns out it's all simulation made up stuff.

01:21:06.100 But I'll come back to this in a moment

01:21:07.980 because that's actually an interesting way

01:21:09.840 of deceiving people.

01:21:12.900 Fact is, okay, that's what he used,

01:21:15.160 Club of Rome model simulations

01:21:17.660 and Deng Xiaoping declaring,

01:21:19.420 yep, we should listen to this guy.

01:21:20.980 You know, we have no other choice.

01:21:22.900 We have to do this.

01:21:24.120 So it's not really clear why on earth

01:21:26.720 he came to this conclusion maybe he just felt like many people for the simulation approach

01:21:32.020 or maybe there are other reasons but that's a fact and so we see that we do have influential

01:21:38.460 international forces that are anti-population growth potentially anti-population and also

01:21:47.080 anti-growth and and we don't well it's not really factually based you know this this um great

01:21:55.420 deception started really again in the british empire um in the 19th century it's really the

01:22:03.620 source of of modern economics this is how modern economics was was developed it started with the

01:22:11.780 so-called classical economists in britain and the key figure is david ricardo who is he well he's a

01:22:19.260 famous classical economist he did the theory of free trade you know the theory of comparative

01:22:23.860 advantage which concludes well we should have free trade it gives us prosperity yes and at the same

01:22:29.200 time the argument is well the previous economists the mercantilists mercantile economists they were

01:22:36.440 so wrong because they argued well we may need some trade policy we need some intervention we

01:22:42.920 need to make sure that the benefits from trade are properly equally distributed that's what the

01:22:47.820 mercantilist said and ever since david ricardo this is claimed to have been disproven and it's

01:22:55.360 just free trade is best also unilateral free trade and that's exactly what the imf and the world bank

01:23:01.120 are preaching and enforcing

01:23:03.680 in their policies on developing countries.

01:23:06.780 You know, their conditionality.

01:23:08.180 You get money, carrot,

01:23:10.140 but here's the stick.

01:23:10.900 You have to adopt these and these policies.

01:23:12.580 Free trade policies allow foreign investment,

01:23:15.100 deregulate, liberalize, privatize,

01:23:16.460 which effectively means these countries

01:23:18.240 are stuck in a low value-added activity,

01:23:22.600 exporting commodities.

01:23:24.260 They're not allowed to build up their own industries,

01:23:26.520 move up the value-added ladder,

01:23:28.240 and they're not allowed to prevent foreigners

01:23:29.840 from buying up their industries

01:23:30.960 cheaply. Now, empirically, this model has been proven wrong many times over. Actually,

01:23:38.260 Prebysh and Singer showed already a long time ago that commodities exporters have declining

01:23:44.160 terms of trade. Yes. Now, what does that mean? Terms of trade is simply the export price divided

01:23:51.740 by the import price. It's basically the relative price you get for what you're selling compared

01:23:57.660 to what you have to buy what you're importing right and and what they've shown is that if you're

01:24:04.000 exporting commodities and if you're focusing on that that means all your high valued goods

01:24:10.820 manufacturing goods are imported right and that's the position developing countries in but if you

01:24:15.740 are in this position what happens over time and they looked at around almost half a century

01:24:20.000 actually more than half a century

01:24:22.480 you could show

01:24:24.140 that the terms of trade

01:24:26.120 must deteriorate

01:24:27.880 which means you will ever get

01:24:29.800 less for your exports in relative terms

01:24:32.180 and you have to pay ever more

01:24:33.940 for your imports

01:24:35.220 and therefore you're getting poorer

01:24:37.000 and you're not getting the benefit from trade

01:24:39.620 that's what the IMF and the World Bank

01:24:42.720 are locking developing countries in

01:24:44.400 through their policy regime 0.99

01:24:45.820 and it's not a coincidence

01:24:46.900 and even David Ricardo knew this very well

01:24:49.240 the trick was this how did he prove that you know free trade is the best and intervention is always

01:24:56.860 bad well he didn't actually prove it all he did is he presented some nice mathematics now

01:25:02.440 mathematics is logic and the logic is correct and here's the trick here's the great deception

01:25:09.280 we like logic men like logic people like logic logic is convincing to us and so convincing that

01:25:17.740 we forget one small but fundamental issue logic is not truth well hang on why is that well if it's

01:25:25.400 logical must be true no there's there's a difference logic can only ever tell us about

01:25:30.900 theoretical possibilities but never tell us about what is true and what is not true that's an

01:25:39.220 empirical question logic is not empirical it's not evidence-based no whether something is true or not

01:25:43.780 whether something happened or not

01:25:45.040 it's always evidence based

01:25:47.240 you have to check the evidence

01:25:48.300 that's the inductive approach

01:25:49.480 whereas logic is mathematics

01:25:51.420 mathematics is logic

01:25:52.740 and it usually is used

01:25:56.080 correctly consistently

01:25:59.080 therefore you've got consistent logic

01:26:00.300 that's why it's so convincing

01:26:01.300 but the conclusion doesn't tell you

01:26:04.100 that you should do this

01:26:05.660 well it's not perfectly predictive

01:26:08.360 it's not predictive at all

01:26:10.340 and also it may not describe the world

01:26:12.660 it may not describe reality

01:26:13.660 because it depends on the assumptions

01:26:15.060 that you've used to build this model

01:26:16.380 and that's where they cheat you.

01:26:20.080 So the assumptions in Ricardo's model

01:26:22.700 are highly specific and unrealistic.

01:26:26.460 That's how economics has worked ever since.

01:26:29.220 In fact, it's called Ricardo's vice.

01:26:32.960 So modern economics,

01:26:34.320 and historians of economic thought agree on this,

01:26:36.560 modern economics essentially

01:26:38.000 was invented by David Ricardo.

01:26:40.500 it's called the ricardian vice which is to make such assumptions that you will come to the

01:26:51.160 conclusions that you desire and and so it's of course not scientific it's not scientific

01:26:59.120 at all it is a way of deceiving people and you don't point out that this is only a scenario

01:27:07.980 It's a simulation that could be true on some planet,

01:27:10.880 but we are not saying anything about whether this actually applies to this or not.

01:27:15.360 So it's sophistry, really.

01:27:17.420 Yes, it is.

01:27:18.960 But also you could say it's rhetoric or it's marketing

01:27:21.680 because you're trying to convince people of something that you've concluded you want to do.

01:27:25.440 Exactly.

01:27:25.820 And you provide the ex post justification and it is impressive.

01:27:29.720 Oh, wow, so much clever mathematics.

01:27:31.820 This is a real clever scientist.

01:27:33.500 Well, it must be true, whatever he's saying.

01:27:35.040 This is essentially how economics has been working.

01:27:37.440 And now David Ricardo doesn't point out that his conclusion depends crucially on the terms of trade, on what is that post-trade price, what is the relative price of things.

01:27:50.820 He has nothing on that, he just leaves that out, but that's the crucial factor.

01:27:54.580 And the problem is that developing countries have a deteriorating terms of trade if they follow his advice.

01:27:59.140 so he's essentially david ricard essentially proven what everyone already knew that trade

01:28:05.260 can potentially be beneficial for everyone because we create benefits through trade

01:28:11.760 that's not in doubt the mercantilists knew that i wonder why they're called mercantilists

01:28:17.600 mercantile merchant trade they favor trade they said let's trade this is where prosperity comes

01:28:25.540 from trade.

01:28:26.240 That's what the Mercantilists said.

01:28:27.980 So why are they so wrong?

01:28:29.960 Well, they're not wrong.

01:28:31.600 They were not wrong.

01:28:32.600 They actually were a step further than Ricardo.

01:28:35.400 They talked about the distribution

01:28:36.920 of those benefits from trade.

01:28:38.720 They said trade can be beneficial,

01:28:40.300 there will be benefits.

01:28:41.340 But who's getting those benefits?

01:28:42.920 Well, exactly.

01:28:43.420 How is that distributed?

01:28:44.440 That depends on the terms of trade,

01:28:45.840 which is what Ricardo totally

01:28:47.260 and on purpose left out.

01:28:48.800 I think I'm starting to understand

01:28:50.060 how the world works.

01:28:51.720 And this deception has been used

01:28:53.840 consistently in economics,

01:28:54.900 but has been used in other disciplines you know so so this is how they persuade this is how the

01:29:00.000 club of rome operates so their model of oh there's too much growth and growth is bad and we need to

01:29:05.260 suppress growth is based on the same approach assumptions it's a simulation it's not truth

01:29:10.760 and it's turned out to be wrong you know we're more than halfway through their 100 year forecast

01:29:15.940 and we're you know they've been proven incorrect not where they said we'd be exactly um it's true

01:29:22.820 for the population growth scenarios.

01:29:25.480 We don't have too much population growth.

01:29:27.940 That's quite clear

01:29:28.820 if you look at the facts.

01:29:30.280 So it's been disproven there

01:29:31.620 because it's just been simulations. 0.81

01:29:33.280 And it's been true

01:29:33.780 for the pandemic simulations.

01:29:35.500 It's been true

01:29:36.000 for the climate simulation,

01:29:37.240 which are also just simulations.

01:29:38.780 And just recently,

01:29:40.060 we hear that,

01:29:41.380 oh, you know,

01:29:42.160 the IPCC is admitting

01:29:44.420 and people at the UN admitting,

01:29:46.840 well, these were extreme scenarios

01:29:48.380 and yes, they're implausible.

01:29:51.560 You know, it's increasingly

01:29:52.220 being a bit because that's what it was just always an extreme too late for the German economy

01:29:56.260 a simulation yes yeah of course well people need to be aware that policymakers when they impose

01:30:03.140 bad policies they use this clever sophistry of simulations the deductive approach is presented

01:30:11.260 as very logical and it is logical but logic is not truth that's the key point truth is based on

01:30:18.020 evidence and facts and very often you can quickly debunk all of these models so i mean given that

01:30:24.600 and i mean part of what you're saying is it is hard to project into the future it's just hard

01:30:29.560 to know because of the number of variables but i'm going to ask you to do it anyway so given

01:30:33.540 everything you've just said your understanding of what this conflict with iran is really about

01:30:40.140 what the conflict with venezuela is really about it's really about china and the contest

01:30:44.540 for global hegemony

01:30:46.280 between the United States and China,

01:30:48.120 and that is likely to flower

01:30:50.280 into a world war.

01:30:52.300 I think it's hard to imagine

01:30:53.540 the United States wins

01:30:54.340 in any conclusive way,

01:30:55.900 given that it's a smaller country,

01:30:58.140 population economy smaller,

01:31:01.140 less technologically advanced

01:31:02.460 in some ways in China.

01:31:03.400 So what happens then?

01:31:07.020 So let's just jump right ahead.

01:31:08.400 So let's say there's

01:31:09.000 some kind of conflict.

01:31:09.860 Hopefully it's limited in scale,

01:31:11.040 but whatever it is,

01:31:12.080 but china remains after that all the systems that you're talking about which have been in

01:31:19.480 place for hundreds of years first another british now under us the americans they're replaced by

01:31:25.200 what what what are the systems that govern the world when china is in charge well exactly you've

01:31:32.800 said it already systems that govern the world yes not countries exactly so that's what it seems to

01:31:40.340 be about to entrench a new system, a more effective system from the viewpoint of the

01:31:48.880 central planners to govern the world.

01:31:50.740 Exactly.

01:31:51.280 Because these crises, whether it's economic crisis.

01:31:53.540 You can feel that.

01:31:54.000 It's very obvious, right?

01:31:55.360 Yeah, exactly.

01:31:56.140 And clearly wars have always been used.

01:31:59.460 You know, you shake up the old structure, you've got your ready new structure that you

01:32:03.240 want to implement.

01:32:04.240 Yes.

01:32:04.560 And that's what it seems to be about.

01:32:06.040 Now, that structure, as in past wars, includes, of course, as a core pillar, the international monetary system.

01:32:19.060 There's no doubt about that.

01:32:20.540 Yes.

01:32:20.820 The monetary system.

01:32:21.880 You know, First World War, the result of the First World War was the creation of the League of Nations.

01:32:26.580 Yes.

01:32:28.020 And the League of Nations had particular views.

01:32:31.780 The problem was America never joined the League of Nations.

01:32:35.020 That's right.

01:32:35.280 Because America was still, you know, a bit more sort of, you know, representatives of, elected representatives would represent what their constituents wanted.

01:32:44.280 And people didn't want it.

01:32:45.600 Why?

01:32:46.000 You know, and in fact, the First World War just proved the point that it's not a great idea to get involved in these international conflicts.

01:32:53.400 So, America didn't join the League of Nations.

01:32:55.940 And that was another reason why another round was considered necessary.

01:33:00.440 And so, towards the end of the Second World War, the United Nations were created.

01:33:04.660 In fact, did you know, what is the United Nations?

01:33:07.300 It's the renamed Allied Countries.

01:33:10.980 They simply renamed them.

01:33:12.200 That's the Security Council, yeah.

01:33:14.320 So the Second World War Allied Countries were renamed United Nations. 0.52

01:33:18.240 Sounds nicer. 0.76

01:33:19.440 Which is why Germany and Japan are still enemy countries in the United Nations Charter. 0.79

01:33:26.620 And they created in 1944 the Bretton Woods system based on the dollar.

01:33:31.900 So it was a clear transfer from the British Empire as a dominant force to America.

01:33:39.220 There was a bit of an internal battle between America and Britain.

01:33:42.420 Keynes was negotiated for Britain.

01:33:45.540 You know, he was already director of the Bank of England,

01:33:47.440 shareholder in the Bank of England.

01:33:49.720 He died, unfortunately, sort of at the time of these negotiations.

01:33:55.720 Anyway, one way or another, America won the argument, it seems.

01:33:58.260 And it was the dollar that was going to be used in the system.

01:34:04.200 And of course, this Bretton Woods conference, you know, in New Hampshire, in the Washington Hotel in New Hampshire, in Bretton Woods, is meant to be a global conference of all the representatives.

01:34:17.620 It was basically Britain and America and their colonial subjects being represented by somebody.

01:34:22.900 But they had to say whatever Britain and America wanted to say.

01:34:26.000 So it wasn't the world. 0.53

01:34:26.940 The Soviet Union was there, but then quickly after that dropped out and thought, no, we don't want to be part of this.

01:34:34.340 China was represented by some people that, you know, America was supporting in China, who later, of course, were not really in power and had nothing to do with China, really.

01:34:44.000 No, they went to Formosa.

01:34:45.120 Yes, for instance.

01:34:46.480 That's right.

01:34:47.460 So, it was really America and Britain calling the shots and deciding things.

01:34:52.100 And it was very much about the monetary system and the structure, United Nations and the organizations, IMF World Bank, to run the world.

01:34:59.860 So, that's also, I think, what this is about.

01:35:04.040 And I think, you see, if the goal, just for sake of argument, is to have a one-world government, a proper one-world government that controls the world.

01:35:16.400 And I don't think it's a good idea, by the way, just want to make that clear, okay?

01:35:19.700 um because thank you doctor because decentralization is the best we have already

01:35:26.600 too much centralization and this is going to be quite a nightmare totalitarian nightmare

01:35:31.100 unfortunately but there are people power hungry you know psychopaths who want more power and

01:35:36.480 you know over time in history we see their footsteps um and that's clearly where you know

01:35:44.120 that's at least one red thread going through history

01:35:47.960 that forces are being aimed at this for one reason or another.

01:35:52.840 So I think as a working hypothesis, we can put it on the table

01:35:55.860 that there's some people out there who want to create a one-world government.

01:36:00.840 And if that's the goal, you know what your obstacle is?

01:36:04.040 I think it's just like with the League of Nations.

01:36:06.420 It's America from their viewpoint.

01:36:09.120 I mean, I'm not saying America is the obstacle

01:36:10.760 or America is bad if it's opposing this.

01:36:13.820 I think that's a good thing.

01:36:14.800 America should oppose this.

01:36:16.340 But from their viewpoint, America is an obstacle.

01:36:20.500 So America has to be taken down.

01:36:21.660 The dollar has to be taken down.

01:36:23.620 Now, a lot of the people fighting for this may be in the American government.

01:36:28.260 Who knows?

01:36:29.440 It doesn't mean they're necessarily outside America.

01:36:32.260 That's right.

01:36:32.720 But there are people who are working, seem to be working for this goal.

01:36:36.040 At least that's the evidence we get when we use the evidence-based approach,

01:36:39.980 not simulations and scenarios.

01:36:42.100 Where would the capital of this world government be, do you think?

01:36:46.560 Oh, that's a good question.

01:36:48.060 Clearly a political question, and there will be debates.

01:36:51.060 But perhaps they already have a preferred location.

01:36:54.060 So, yeah, I don't want to be drawn into speculation.

01:36:56.980 Because, of course, from my viewpoint, it doesn't actually matter.

01:37:01.220 But once we see it, I think it will tell us a lot.

01:37:05.380 But it doesn't really matter for this argument.

01:37:08.080 So, maybe we'll come.

01:37:08.920 Yeah, I wouldn't speculate either.

01:37:10.060 I would just think, you know, logic suggests it would not be east or west, but in the middle.

01:37:14.800 Yes, that could be.

01:37:15.940 That could be.

01:37:16.620 Yeah.

01:37:17.420 That would be an argument.

01:37:18.800 Because, of course, if it's like the United Nations again, you see, and always they move it.

01:37:22.280 You see, First World War, League of Nations after First World War was in Geneva.

01:37:25.360 Yeah.

01:37:25.660 Switzerland.

01:37:26.480 You know, some arguments for that.

01:37:27.480 It's sort of international territory.

01:37:29.140 But Europe.

01:37:30.100 Well, then United Nations, because America didn't join.

01:37:32.520 So you needed to be in America.

01:37:33.800 united nations uh of course rockefeller gave the land um and helped a lot in building up the un

01:37:40.460 institutions was very much involved you know so you know we see the rockefellas their rockefeller

01:37:46.640 foundation quite active um but if you move to the next step and you realize just by logic that

01:37:53.320 america is now the obstacle because why would america subordinate itself to an outside body

01:38:00.020 exactly why would america uh give up the the dollar dominance no and actually you know have

01:38:06.480 an international currency that is not the dollar which would be necessary for this new one world

01:38:10.940 government so america becomes the obstacle so then you can't have it in america right

01:38:16.100 um or to to make it clear that america is no longer the dominant force it's now a new thing

01:38:22.980 it's a world government that is different which you would want to use to motivate other people

01:38:28.300 right outside America so then he wouldn't be in America and then where could it be and so then

01:38:33.140 yeah a few things a few places come to mind but also how do you go about this and what we learn

01:38:40.000 from history is it's always the same mechanisms warfare is an important one at least for big

01:38:47.180 changes there are many changes you can do without war and that is through economic you could say

01:38:54.320 economic war but economic cycles boom bust cycles long deep recessions downturns they shake up

01:39:01.420 society high inflation it's also part of that it's also economic warfare on the people shakes

01:39:06.620 up society like the high inflation in germany in the 1920s clearly was uh one way to get hitler

01:39:11.960 to powers the beginning um and by the way we may not have time to to go there but um you know the

01:39:20.260 The person who was put in charge sort of at the peak of this high inflation became head of the German central bank, Reichsbank.

01:39:30.580 In Weimar.

01:39:32.100 Yes.

01:39:33.240 Charles Norschacht was his name.

01:39:35.760 He was appointed by foreigners, not by Germans.

01:39:40.020 So there's no doubt about that because they call themselves now victorious powers of the First World War.

01:39:49.540 although it was an armistice, allegedly.

01:39:52.440 But they decided that, no, we are going to occupy Germany.

01:39:55.520 Germany then became occupied by foreign troops, you know, the Rhinelands.

01:39:59.360 Including African troops. 0.99

01:40:00.900 Yes, indeed, indeed. 1.00

01:40:02.380 And yeah, it wasn't too pleasant.

01:40:04.900 And so also its central bank was taken under foreign control formally.

01:40:09.200 There was a new central bank act,

01:40:11.900 and it stated that half of the board members have to be foreigners. 0.80

01:40:16.080 They couldn't be German.

01:40:16.900 And in total, because also the president was effectively appointed by the foreigners, which foreigners are we talking about? 0.65

01:40:25.220 Well, it's mainly in practice, it's not really in dispute, it was the J.P. Morgan-led reparations committee.

01:40:31.520 Because the story was that during the First World War, Britain funded its war effort by borrowing money from J.P. Morgan.

01:40:39.080 That was already the first step of transferring power from Britain to America.

01:40:43.860 Yes.

01:40:44.100 and because he didn't have to do that

01:40:47.100 there were alternatives

01:40:47.680 but Britain chose it seems

01:40:49.440 chose to do this

01:40:51.360 and so

01:40:52.720 J.P. Morgan then

01:40:56.300 was the one that money was owed to by Britain

01:40:59.180 it was more than 10% of American GDP

01:41:02.960 so it was not a small sum

01:41:04.440 and therefore after the First World War

01:41:06.640 Britain had to do what J.P. Morgan

01:41:08.440 was recommending really

01:41:10.300 and J.P. Morgan 0.83

01:41:12.200 was thinking well Britain is not gonna really repay this money I would better get it from Germany

01:41:18.900 and so the reparation committee was all about Germany paying Britain to pay J.P. Wong so

01:41:23.920 really it was from Germany to J.P. Wong and this started to become entrenched in if you look at

01:41:30.340 the German central banks the first step was this this new law that made the German central bank

01:41:36.640 totally independent from government

01:41:38.840 and from any democratic assemblies in Germany.

01:41:43.120 The Reichsbank was made unaccountable to anyone.

01:41:45.760 It was the most independent central bank in the world.

01:41:48.960 While also at the same time being 100% privately owned,

01:41:51.440 by the way, the Reichsbank was privately owned.

01:41:53.920 So, and this Reichsbank,

01:41:56.140 then as soon as the ink had dried

01:41:58.280 on this new statutory independence,

01:42:02.680 but of course dependence on JP Morgan's wishes, 0.98

01:42:05.460 The reparations committee was appointing these foreigners, you see. 0.78

01:42:11.300 The hyperinflation started in Germany. 0.99

01:42:14.760 And they then put Hjalmar Schacht in power at the helm of the Reichsbank.

01:42:20.160 And it was the same Hjalmar Schacht who then took the steps.

01:42:24.580 I mean, we need another session on the details. 0.76

01:42:28.560 But he took the steps that brought Hitler into power. 0.79

01:42:30.880 and even approached the Nazi party

01:42:35.680 and said, well, you guys have some interesting ideas,

01:42:37.880 but you don't have a really good economic program.

01:42:40.340 I'll give you how to get out of the Great Depression

01:42:42.160 that he helped to export to Germany

01:42:44.220 through his policies at the Reichsbank.

01:42:47.120 So that's how the plot thickens. 0.82

01:42:48.360 And then, of course, when Hitler was appointed 0.66

01:42:50.280 on strong recommendation from Charles Schacht,

01:42:52.420 who was highly respected by that time

01:42:54.180 because he was actually known as dictator,

01:42:57.240 the monetary and credit dictator,

01:42:59.700 because he decided over life and death of German companies in the 1920s.

01:43:04.360 When the Reichsbank said no,

01:43:05.760 then the company wouldn't get credit from the banks

01:43:07.720 and would be finished. 0.88

01:43:10.240 So this guy recommended Hitler

01:43:12.440 and then he was appointed,

01:43:15.100 even though he didn't have the absolute majority in parliament,

01:43:17.940 he was appointed chancellor

01:43:19.040 and then immediately appointed Helmerschacht

01:43:22.220 as head of the central bank again,

01:43:24.920 who then very quickly did the right policies,

01:43:27.920 sort of early versions of my QE,

01:43:31.000 a quantitative easing,

01:43:32.200 to rev up the German economy.

01:43:33.920 And so by 1936,

01:43:36.400 so only after three years, 0.71

01:43:38.500 you know, Germany was also

01:43:39.280 in the Great Depression,

01:43:40.180 you have to understand.

01:43:40.800 I mean, there was large-scale unemployment,

01:43:42.560 20, 25% unemployment.

01:43:44.600 And then Schalmerschacht,

01:43:45.960 who had created those policies

01:43:47.560 that created this

01:43:48.400 and exported the Great Depression 0.55

01:43:49.940 from America to Germany, 0.76

01:43:52.120 knew how to get out of it quickly

01:43:53.620 and adopted these policies.

01:43:55.620 So Germany by 1936,

01:43:58.020 Just when Keynes in Britain was publishing his analysis of, you know, what could be behind this Great Depression and what could be done to get out of it, which was his recommendation of fiscal policy.

01:44:08.180 Well, Schacht had already led Germany to full employment and shortage of labor.

01:44:12.460 That's how the economy was booming in 1936.

01:44:14.760 And it wasn't through fiscal policy.

01:44:16.640 He often said, oh, that was military spending.

01:44:18.380 Oh, no, no, no.

01:44:19.140 German military spending only picked up much later.

01:44:22.080 It was monetary policy,

01:44:23.700 credit creation for productive business investment

01:44:26.120 in many industries, high technology industries.

01:44:29.480 That's what led Germany out of that bank credit creation.

01:44:32.780 And Schacht knew that

01:44:33.940 because he was also known as the credit magicians,

01:44:37.400 the wizard of credit creation.

01:44:38.820 So it turns out there was just one lever

01:44:40.340 in the German economy and it was monetary policy.

01:44:42.660 And when you cranked it in one direction,

01:44:44.900 people thrived.

01:44:45.660 When you cranked it in the other direction,

01:44:46.620 they thrived to death.

01:44:47.200 Yes, that's right.

01:44:47.520 But it's always the same everywhere. 0.79

01:44:48.840 It's not just Germany.

01:44:49.800 It's always bank credit.

01:44:51.360 That's what shows you what's going.

01:44:53.080 That's why they're hiding it.

01:44:54.880 That's why even today in leading economics textbooks,

01:44:57.740 there are no banks.

01:44:58.920 There's no bank credit creation.

01:45:00.680 Central banks still use their equilibrium models,

01:45:03.460 dynamic, stochastic equilibrium models,

01:45:05.680 general equilibrium models where there's no banks.

01:45:08.360 There's no need for banks.

01:45:09.100 Well, this is what David Ricardo started.

01:45:11.480 I mean, in his fake economics,

01:45:13.740 this based on this, you know, all these assumptions,

01:45:16.580 this axiomatic, hypothetical, very logical,

01:45:19.560 and therefore convincing economics.

01:45:21.540 There are no banks.

01:45:22.320 There's no bank credit creation.

01:45:23.380 Who was David Ricardo?

01:45:25.080 Well, he was a banker.

01:45:26.620 He just retired at the age of 42.

01:45:29.960 Was he British?

01:45:30.860 He was British.

01:45:31.900 He made a fortune in the city

01:45:33.520 working with a very rich banking dynasty,

01:45:40.960 making a fortune

01:45:41.940 so that he's known as the second richest person in Britain.

01:45:46.380 Second banking dynasty.

01:45:47.800 Well, exactly.

01:45:48.200 and why second richest

01:45:50.220 who was the richest

01:45:51.200 well that was Rothschild's

01:45:52.820 and that's where he was

01:45:54.880 most likely making his money

01:45:56.580 because he was in the bond market

01:45:57.640 in 1815

01:45:58.580 Rothschild made a fortune

01:46:00.260 in the bond market

01:46:01.140 through inside knowledge

01:46:02.600 of what's going on

01:46:04.400 if you fund wars

01:46:05.420 you know

01:46:05.780 you know slightly earlier

01:46:07.260 what's going to happen

01:46:08.080 that episode is quite well

01:46:10.560 documented

01:46:12.260 but Ricciardo was a bond trader

01:46:14.260 he was likely

01:46:15.040 one of those who

01:46:17.120 as agents bought the bonds

01:46:19.420 when they were at the rock bottom

01:46:20.680 and you could get them for I don't know

01:46:22.300 20 pennies in the pound

01:46:24.940 for Rothschild without people

01:46:27.580 realizing you know Rothschild is actually buying

01:46:29.560 them very cheaply and then owned the

01:46:31.460 entire national debt and then could

01:46:33.480 say to the Bank of England well actually

01:46:35.180 your assets are mostly

01:46:36.700 bonds I'm the biggest bond

01:46:39.560 owner I'm buying the shares

01:46:41.180 cheaply

01:46:42.280 and could dictate anything to the government

01:46:45.500 or the royal house it seems but this david ricardo having made his fortune then retired

01:46:54.460 at the age of 42 and built himself a nice little country house princess royal princess anne lives

01:47:02.520 in it today so you know it's probably quite impressive i think 700 acres of land and anyway

01:47:08.520 so you know he was seriously wealthy what did he do with the rest of his time he decided to create

01:47:15.120 modern economics which is based on assumptions this hypothetical axiomatic deductive simulation

01:47:21.760 now you can make any assumption in logic why not but when certain assumptions become compulsory

01:47:29.080 like you have to assume right perfect information complete markets rational agents and all that

01:47:35.140 stuff you know then it's an ideology that's the definition of an ideology it's a religion at

01:47:40.580 that point that's what economics becomes and the trick is this that once you have these assumptions

01:47:44.040 then you can show that in equilibrium demand equals supply prices move to give us equilibrium

01:47:49.680 it's prices that dominate never look at quantities and this is what's being pushed i mean modern

01:47:55.820 economics is equilibrium economics and the the the irony is there is no equilibrium that's made up

01:48:03.780 because this scenario is so hypothetical what is the probability of having equilibrium you need at

01:48:11.100 least eight assumptions to hold at the same time. But each assumption has a probability

01:48:14.680 of probably less than 1% of being true. But let's say for sake of argument, each assumption like

01:48:20.080 perfect information, complete markets, you know, zero transaction costs. If each assumption had

01:48:25.680 a probability of being more likely to be true than not, 50, more than 50%, 55%, okay? But you've

01:48:32.420 got eight of these assumptions. They all need to be true at the same time to get equilibrium.

01:48:37.140 What is the probability of getting equilibrium

01:48:39.900 when each assumption is more likely to be true than not 55%?

01:48:44.180 Well, it's 0.55, 55% to the power of eight.

01:48:47.540 You need all of them to hold at the same time,

01:48:49.360 conditional probability.

01:48:50.660 So while they love to use logic and math,

01:48:53.040 that's the calculation they don't want you to make.

01:48:54.680 Math reveals it as a lie.

01:48:56.220 Exactly, because what is the result?

01:48:58.080 Even if each is more likely to be true than not

01:49:02.440 with 55% probability,

01:49:04.340 the joint probability is less than 1%.

01:49:07.180 But of course, each assumption has a probability closer to zero, less than 1%, I would say.

01:49:11.880 So in other words, when Americans say, non-economists say, this doesn't look like a free market economy to me, they're right.

01:49:19.900 Of course.

01:49:20.580 There is not even equilibrium.

01:49:22.320 It doesn't exist.

01:49:23.700 It's so unlikely to ever be true that we know for sure there's no equilibrium in any market.

01:49:28.800 But central banks are using general equilibrium models.

01:49:32.020 That means equilibrium not just in one market, but in all markets at the same time.

01:49:35.560 That's even less likely.

01:49:37.500 That's like the probability is 0.000 whatever percent.

01:49:41.500 So the real power is with the governors of the central bank.

01:49:46.340 Exactly.

01:49:46.940 But also what you're hiding with this equilibrium economics is the power of – is actually power, you could say.

01:49:54.860 Power.

01:49:56.020 Economists would say, well, let's not talk about power.

01:49:58.020 We're about economics.

01:49:59.100 We don't – power doesn't enter the equation.

01:50:01.340 Why?

01:50:01.700 Because it's equilibrium economics.

01:50:03.220 Prices move.

01:50:03.960 You get this outcome.

01:50:04.640 You're unemployed.

01:50:05.220 i'm sorry that's the markets there's no power but the moment you realize that actually all markets

01:50:11.940 are rationed then the so-called short side principle applies which is whichever quantity

01:50:18.660 of demand or supply smaller determines the outcome and has power to pick and choose with

01:50:24.500 who to trade that's the power that we realize is there all the time and that's the reality of

01:50:29.660 markets so that means people um the short side whatever that may be in any market has power

01:50:38.380 that's totally ignored by economists so this is why equilibrium this this deductive equilibrium

01:50:43.760 approach this deception is so useful you never think of looking for the power players the power

01:50:50.800 holders of course when it comes to money um is the equilibrium demand and supply is it equal

01:50:56.820 Well, no, because the demand for money is essentially infinite.

01:51:01.380 And of course, the short side is the supply of money.

01:51:03.560 So whoever supplies money has power to pick and choose who to give it to, how much to

01:51:07.880 give it to, for what purposes.

01:51:09.260 Now, who is creating the money?

01:51:11.040 That is the banks.

01:51:12.760 And of course, that's why we need many small banks, local banks, because then you're giving

01:51:18.940 this power, which is then power over the whole economy, really, because it's the power of

01:51:23.320 money creation and availability of money purchasing power you give it back to the people to the local

01:51:28.720 areas and that's why the central planners have been setting out on a campaign to destroy small

01:51:33.840 banks local banks and so the in the background is this deception that is equilibrium when actually

01:51:39.000 all markets are rationed and there's power players it's the short side and when it comes to money it's

01:51:43.720 the supplies of money but it's really the big banks and the central banks that have usurped that

01:51:49.140 That's why we need to decentralize many small banks.

01:51:51.780 There is actually a person at the Federal Reserve now who's vice chair of supervision, Mickey Bowman.

01:51:59.860 She is an advocate of small banks and local banks.

01:52:03.060 So there is hope.

01:52:04.120 I mean, she should be the next really chair of the board of governors of the Federal Reserve System.

01:52:09.820 But of course, we have somebody else starting in the interim. 0.99

01:52:12.700 But hopefully, she will still be there and continue to fight for small banks. 0.99

01:52:16.680 We need some other changes to make it easier to create new banks. 0.99

01:52:19.700 That should be deregulated.

01:52:21.040 There was an era in America of high growth

01:52:23.040 when you could very easily set up a bank.

01:52:26.060 Well, why don't we have that?

01:52:27.760 You know, it's virtually impossible to set up a bank.

01:52:30.420 Well, they certainly make it very hard.

01:52:32.780 So it doesn't sound like the political environment that we're in,

01:52:41.360 which is clearly accelerating.

01:52:42.800 We're moving towards something.

01:52:43.820 Its outlines are not clear, but we're moving at high speed.

01:52:46.680 It doesn't sound like we're moving toward decentralization of anything.

01:52:51.980 Right.

01:52:52.740 The trend continues to be centralization.

01:52:55.980 They're reducing the number of banks.

01:52:57.360 The ECB has overseen the disappearance of 6,000 banks in Europe.

01:53:02.900 That's very sad.

01:53:04.500 They continue to drop their numbers also in America.

01:53:07.560 That needs to be reversed because as the number of banks goes down,

01:53:11.500 there's less economic growth.

01:53:12.860 There's less prosperity for the middle class.

01:53:15.820 It is really a war on the middle class if you destroy the small banks.

01:53:19.520 But that continues to take place.

01:53:21.300 And it's even official ECB policy.

01:53:24.180 Of course, the background to that is that the ECB is the revived Reichsbank.

01:53:29.800 I've told you about how powerful this foreign-controlled Reichsbank was.

01:53:33.100 So once Germany was defeated in the Second World War, post-war Germany, thinkers there were given some leeway to think about, okay, how to do the monetary system, the central bank.

01:53:44.800 and they concluded

01:53:46.060 well the problem was

01:53:47.520 the central bank

01:53:48.580 was too powerful

01:53:49.500 it's no good being

01:53:52.100 privately owned

01:53:52.840 so it should be

01:53:53.440 state owned

01:53:54.160 but more importantly

01:53:55.620 it should be made

01:53:56.460 accountable

01:53:57.100 to democratic assemblies

01:53:58.840 to parliament

01:53:59.680 which the Reichsbank

01:54:00.920 was not

01:54:01.620 due to the

01:54:03.420 control by the

01:54:04.380 reparations committee

01:54:04.940 which was later

01:54:05.600 by the way

01:54:06.000 renamed the BIS

01:54:07.660 Bank for International

01:54:08.600 Settlement

01:54:08.980 that is the continuation

01:54:10.320 effectively

01:54:10.920 of the J.P. Morgan

01:54:12.380 Reparations Committee

01:54:13.240 you see

01:54:13.640 um but um the bundesbank was then made accountable to parliament and its independence was reduced

01:54:24.920 that's the big insight and as a result we had a very successful central bank in germany

01:54:30.640 that throughout the existence of an independent bundesbank independent from um the government but

01:54:38.440 dependent on parliament and laws were made for it by parliament that for example it also needs to

01:54:44.160 look at growth and and employment you know you can't have huge unemployment it's no good having

01:54:49.240 low inflation but a huge recession right right so that was the law it performed very well so it made

01:54:54.660 other central banks look bad it also never created these asset bubbles because if you allow banks or

01:54:59.740 encourage banks to to lend for asset purchases you get because it's money creation you get asset

01:55:04.480 bubbles which lead to banking crises and that's the system played in many countries certainly in

01:55:09.540 england boom bust cycles all the time but many countries um the central banks have been playing

01:55:14.620 this game which then can be used to rearrange ownership and all sorts of things as a world bank

01:55:19.600 report pointed out noticed about the asian crisis oh the asian crisis window of opportunity to

01:55:23.920 rearrange ownership oh interesting world bank report um so the the bundesbank was a good central

01:55:30.800 bank probably one of the best in history i would say and it because it made other central banks

01:55:36.500 look bad its days were unfortunately numbered germany allowed itself to give up the bundesbank

01:55:42.040 and give up its currency the d mark now the d mark had become the european currency so what was

01:55:49.260 marketed i remember that that's right it was by market forces and voluntary decisions other

01:55:54.860 countries decided to peg themselves to d mark yeah voluntarily that nobody was forced to do that

01:55:59.720 and so what really was was marketed as the introduction of the european currency the euro

01:56:06.180 was actually the destruction of the european currency the demarc and also the destruction

01:56:12.260 of this good central bank now really the destruction of germany itself that's right

01:56:17.620 that's when it started and i was a fierce opponent in the 1990s but it was like a taboo to say oh

01:56:24.180 giving up the demarc is a bad thing um in public debates i was chief economist of a british

01:56:29.020 investment bank and so invited to various events in germany also and other german bank deutsche

01:56:34.060 bank chief economists were there and i would say well we can't give up the d mark there's no good

01:56:39.320 economic rationale and silence and some would say oh they wouldn't engage on on that point because

01:56:44.760 it's true they would then say oh but there's a good political rationale there's a moral rational

01:56:49.000 and moral i want to hear that one because that's an even worse argument but no but that's you know

01:56:54.880 when a society is collapsing when every argument

01:56:56.860 becomes a moral argument. That's right.

01:56:59.020 But we're fighting Russia, so we're good. 0.99

01:57:01.080 So then they introduced, 0.50

01:57:02.880 they abolished the European currency, the DMARC,

01:57:04.960 and they introduced the euro

01:57:06.920 with its own central bank, the

01:57:08.800 ECB. Now they marketed

01:57:10.800 this as, oh, the ECB will be like the Bundesbank,

01:57:12.920 it's going to be in Frankfurt, it's going to be the same,

01:57:15.320 as independent as the Bundesbank.

01:57:17.180 Well, hang on, the lesson from the

01:57:18.880 Reichsbank and the Bundesbank was to make the

01:57:20.820 central bank less independent.

01:57:22.300 it turns out as i show actually my book princess of the yen um quantum publishers.com is the place

01:57:29.900 to get it amazon is not really the place to get it um it was a book that was impossible to get it

01:57:35.260 it's like 500 on ebay but you've reissued it yes quantum publishers.com so there's a chapter here

01:57:41.980 on on this the ecb is the revived reichsbank it was modeled on the um on the worst central bank

01:57:50.520 in history which is of course why i predicted that the ecb was likely to create bank credit

01:57:56.540 driven asset bubbles banking crises and big recessions in the eurozone and that's exactly

01:58:01.160 what they did ireland portugal spain greece well and not and now not just in the eurozone but in

01:58:05.560 the united states so here's my here's my last question i am going to ask you to predict and

01:58:09.780 project so go out on a limb but um you know the united states has been experiencing i think what's

01:58:17.100 fair to call an asset bubble certainly you see it in real estate markets but not just real estate

01:58:20.720 um cryptocurrency etc what happens to assets in the united states as this war progresses and as

01:58:31.280 the global system changes well um in principle of course in real estate markets we have we have a

01:58:41.700 We have big cycles, the slow moving, and the cycles are a function of in real estate of

01:58:48.440 interest rates and the quantity of credit for more importantly, for real estate transactions.

01:58:56.580 Assets are somewhat overpriced, I dare say, in the US.

01:59:03.280 But particularly when you look at stock markets, it doesn't necessarily mean there will be

01:59:07.320 an immediate crash but i do think we are heading uh towards a crisis and again you know if you

01:59:15.780 look at the big game that's being played then it's quite clear this this has to happen if the

01:59:21.780 working hypothesis is that there are forces out there that want to dethrone america yes and they

01:59:27.460 may be active in america even these forces no question about it um and that means also dethroning

01:59:32.620 the dollar. And that would explain why China actually had been strengthened with American

01:59:38.880 investment in the past, because you're building up this opponent that can help take down America

01:59:44.600 if you make sure America stays aggressive and adopts anti-China policies, which also seems to

01:59:51.380 be happening to some extent. So then what are the scenarios and what's the way? Well, as we said,

01:59:58.840 whenever you have these big wars they lead to currency system changes the global financial

02:00:05.540 system changes so we moved from first the british pound which was on and off the gold standard

02:00:12.040 then we moved to the breton woods dollar standard which was a gold standard and but of course gold

02:00:19.160 standard you know some people think oh that means it's one-to-one to gold and you can't create money

02:00:23.040 no that never happened such a gold standard never existed there's always been bank credit creation

02:00:27.260 and that's how the real game is played.

02:00:29.700 But it's some kind of limit

02:00:31.660 because as soon as it turns out

02:00:33.540 America is creating too many dollars

02:00:35.300 buying up assets in Europe,

02:00:37.820 the French were not yet part of NATO,

02:00:39.500 therefore not part of the command structure.

02:00:41.240 It was the French that called out America. 0.87

02:00:44.820 We'd like our gold, please. 0.97

02:00:45.900 And they said,

02:00:46.740 okay, you're printing all these dollars

02:00:48.060 and you're buying us up.

02:00:49.520 What we can do is we can change these dollars now into gold.

02:00:52.340 We want to see gold.

02:00:55.000 So that's, you know,

02:00:55.900 but so then we moved from the 71 nixon shock u.s default on its international gold obligations

02:01:03.300 then we moved to the petrodollar which of course is very closely intertwined to actions in the

02:01:10.800 middle east and all the wars in the middle east oil was only allowed to be sold against the u.s

02:01:15.900 dollar anyone who did otherwise whether it's in iraq saddam hussein or in libya qaddafi 0.96

02:01:22.040 that was a big no-no and led to severe consequences warfare and we get killed for that you get killed

02:01:28.280 for it exactly um so what's next because also when the last uh you know when the nixon shock

02:01:35.300 happened and we moved from the gold dollar to the petrol dollar there was also inflation inflation

02:01:40.880 is a good camouflage that you know it sort of makes it easier to rearrange the monetary system

02:01:47.660 It was entirely monetary inflation, by the way, not energy-driven.

02:01:52.040 It was the central bank creating a lot of money.

02:01:53.780 But we had the same in 2020 with the COVID PSYOP, money creation by central banks, no economic rationale for this whatsoever.

02:02:02.160 It was clear 18 months later we get inflation.

02:02:04.300 As a result, that's what happened.

02:02:05.360 So it looks like we're heading into the second run of inflation.

02:02:12.980 Still early stages, not entirely clear, but we might guess without having yet the necessary data.

02:02:20.520 But I think there will be a second bout of inflation.

02:02:24.720 But we already had the first bout and it indicates that we are in this phase of running up towards the next rearrangement of the monetary system.

02:02:32.380 What is it going to be?

02:02:33.540 Well, that seems to be increasingly clear.

02:02:35.740 It's going to be digital based on digital identity.

02:02:40.960 and i think we therefore should oppose digital id on all fronts we're humans we're not digits

02:02:48.220 you know we have digits 10 digits okay but you know we should not subject ourselves to um to

02:02:55.000 this regime where if you don't provide the right digital id credentials you're not accepted as a

02:03:00.140 human and you don't have the human rights in reality i mean that's and you know dehumanizing

02:03:05.680 we should reject just on that principle but there's many other reasons why we should reject

02:03:09.400 It is the beginning of this control regime of a digital currency.

02:03:14.300 Now, digital currency as such is not a bad thing

02:03:17.200 because for half a century we've been using bank digital currency,

02:03:20.160 BDC we could call it, because the banking system has been digital

02:03:23.100 and most money is created by banks.

02:03:24.860 It's digital money.

02:03:25.680 We have been using decentralized bank digital money

02:03:28.720 and actually it has worked quite well.

02:03:30.240 And the banks have never sold our personal transactions data to anyone.

02:03:34.620 So actually we should laud the banks

02:03:35.940 because the new regime is all about, you know,

02:03:39.280 our information

02:03:40.960 about our transactions

02:03:42.000 being sold freely

02:03:43.860 the government is now Facebook

02:03:45.060 and yes

02:03:46.720 being used to manipulate us

02:03:48.240 whether it's in elections

02:03:49.060 or you know

02:03:50.020 to sell products

02:03:50.840 and services

02:03:51.560 that we don't really need

02:03:52.500 so

02:03:52.860 it's going to be

02:03:54.360 a digital currency

02:03:55.520 it is marketed

02:03:57.620 as CBDC

02:03:58.660 central bank digital currency

02:04:01.460 I call it

02:04:01.920 central bank digital control

02:04:03.360 because that's what it is

02:04:05.900 it's not really a currency

02:04:07.240 it's more control

02:04:08.340 As Catherine Austin-Fitz always points out quite correctly.

02:04:15.460 And so because we've been using BDC, bank digital currency, what is the difference?

02:04:20.500 It's the central.

02:04:21.860 They tell us it's justification, Christine Lagarde, that we need this because there's Bitcoin.

02:04:26.280 We need digital central bank currency now as well.

02:04:29.900 Well, the digital is not the new aspect.

02:04:31.640 We have digital money.

02:04:33.560 It's the central aspect that this is about.

02:04:36.060 because and particularly if there's there's there's now another bout of inflation and in

02:04:42.600 some countries with the boom bust cycles being arranged such that in germany we are heading

02:04:47.680 when in a property bust now there was the bubble arranged by the ecb from 2009 to 2022 now property

02:04:55.680 prices are steadily declining putting banks slowly under more and more pressure they were forced to

02:05:01.460 do this by the ecb it's the same game as bank of japan's game you know in japan and so banking

02:05:06.800 crisis of course is ideal and inflation to launch your cbdc that's for europe in other countries

02:05:14.180 there may be slightly other rationales and justifications for introducing it but a crisis 0.76

02:05:20.120 one way or another is always good a war of course is even better because then it's just wartime

02:05:24.580 direct dictates you can't do anything it's wartime you have to accept whatever you're told

02:05:29.300 and as a wartime measure of course that's the ultimate you know if everything else fails

02:05:34.180 then definitely wartime measures will be used to introduce these these measures so we're heading

02:05:40.900 towards digital control systems where we have no more control over over our liquid assets

02:05:47.880 it will be of course programmable permission based so only what the central planners allow

02:05:55.860 you to use your money for at what time and place and location will be permitted and if you're in

02:06:02.280 the wrong place it's not going to work and if you're buying the wrong book title it's not going

02:06:06.540 to work and so on i mean there's no limit to how much you can fine-tune and control oh they don't

02:06:11.220 have so much power they can't control you know millions of people well this is what the drive

02:06:16.880 to build all these hundreds in fact thousands of data centers is about it is an organizational

02:06:23.040 challenge to micromanage the world's population through the new financial world order yes

02:06:29.780 but they're working on solving that ai is really about that if ai was about helping us to be more

02:06:39.100 productive the principle of decentralization would be applied because any human organization

02:06:44.480 and any use and any anywhere humans are involved if you introduce the principle of decentralization

02:06:50.040 subsidiarity it will be more productive no doubt more efficient more productive that's been

02:06:54.520 demonstrated in many contexts i mentioned the yes the warfare military but and businesses and so on

02:07:00.600 it's true for everything but that's not what they're doing they're creating highly centralized

02:07:05.400 structures which proves that it's not about actual productivity it's about control controlling us

02:07:12.780 that's why they need these huge resources then you can control inflation easily because people can't

02:07:19.060 buy when the central bankers don't allow you to buy yes so then prices can't be driven up

02:07:23.980 and also you control movement of people you can't buy a ticket you can't go here and there because

02:07:29.720 your money won't work outside a certain zone whether it's 15 minute prison zone or whatever

02:07:34.760 it may be it is the totalitarian dictator's dream come true and that is the scary thing most people

02:07:43.180 are still not aware that we are so close to the scariest most dystopian system where we're giving

02:07:50.880 so much control and power into the hands of ever fewer people over our lives and billions of people

02:07:59.220 again if everyone is good like the majority of people and the controllers the elites the central

02:08:06.040 planners are good it's not an issue but that's not what human history teaches us and human nature

02:08:12.480 we know is different most people actually once they're given a lot of power that comes with

02:08:17.460 temptations of power and most can't handle those temptations and they give in and then that's when

02:08:23.700 power gets abused that's why lord acton um british uh political observer and advisor to prime

02:08:32.620 ministers concluded power corrupts most people get corrupted by power they can't handle power

02:08:41.040 and absolute power corrupts absolutely we're talking about absolute power in the hands of

02:08:46.460 central planners if we allow the central bank digital currency to be imposed and

02:08:50.860 and the central planners will have this absolute power including you know of course they have

02:08:59.320 ready monetary power but they will have the tools to deploy this in every detail to micromanage us

02:09:08.140 That is a new dimension of power and effectively includes fiscal policy

02:09:12.360 because ultimately everything becomes controlled by the central bank.

02:09:16.960 So now you could still say, well, we have some politicians,

02:09:19.780 they meet for parliamentary votes and they decide budgets.

02:09:23.480 Well, all that will become obsolete

02:09:25.700 because everything will be controlled by the central bank.

02:09:28.460 This is what the politicians don't realize,

02:09:31.040 that the central bank digital currency is the first step,

02:09:33.780 the central planners, the monetary central planners to take over everything.

02:09:37.600 So the dangers are just so manifold that it's quite clear that we have to stop this.

02:09:45.400 So, I mean, this is really the big scenario.

02:09:49.560 And that's where we see forces pushing as internationally power gets ever more centralized.

02:09:56.080 Despite this being the biggest lesson of the 20th century,

02:10:00.400 there's not a good idea to constantly have more power in the hands of fewer and fewer people.

02:10:04.980 that's actually being accelerated

02:10:06.680 in the 21st century.

02:10:09.220 On the basis of lies

02:10:10.920 about the 20th century.

02:10:14.400 Indeed, indeed, yeah.

02:10:16.200 Richard, thank you.

02:10:17.280 And I hope this won't be

02:10:18.020 your last trip here.

02:10:19.480 It'd be a pleasure.

02:10:20.220 It's a pleasure to be here

02:10:21.280 and I hope I can come again.

02:10:22.300 I mean, there's...

02:10:22.660 Literally any time.

02:10:24.160 I'll be thinking about this

02:10:25.120 for the next month.

02:10:26.060 Fantastic.

02:10:26.680 Thanks very much.

02:10:27.360 Thank you.

The Tucker Carlson Show - May 22, 2026

Economist Exposes How Banks Manufacture Wars, False Flags & Famines to Usher in the New World Order

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