The Tucker Carlson Show - JD Vance： The Immigration Crisis, How Polls Are Used to Fool You, and the Left’s Plan to Stop Trump

00:00:00.000 welcome to the tucker carlson show we bring you stories that have not been showcased anywhere else

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00:00:26.300 at tucker carlson.com here's the episode jd vance thank you for this um we're on the road you're in

00:00:32.360 phoenix yep um so where is the race right now i mean sincerely to the best of well first of all

00:00:40.340 before we start who is that this is atlas atlas come here atlas come what's up buddy so this is

00:00:47.020 atlas uh which i found out on the internet a few weeks ago that he's actually a rented dog that

00:00:53.160 was given to me by the campaign to make me seem um like i'm a dog fan uh and this is weird

00:00:59.400 and it's it's actually hysterical to hear these lefties be like oh that dog that's that's totally

00:01:07.240 not his dog and you know of course we got him when he was like an eight week old puppy and we've been

00:01:11.300 you know we love dogs and he's he's been our little guy um but he's like so well trained and so normal

00:01:16.940 it's like shocking to me that anybody would think that he's not our puppy but here we are on the road

00:01:21.440 with you he's on the road with us yes we have our whole family up here um my kids are like you

00:01:25.880 know two two stories above and of course they woke up at like 4 30 the ass crack of dawn because 0.63

00:01:31.340 they're on like east coast time yes ohio time and here we are in arizona so we've been up for a long

00:01:36.940 time i appreciate you doing this but i'm gonna drink a lot of coffee during our interview but anyway

00:01:41.120 you asked you asked how was the race yeah so what is it i mean what is your sincere belief about how

00:01:46.580 this plays out i mean look i think we're gonna win and i think we're gonna win i wouldn't say

00:01:52.940 comfortably but i don't think it's going to be the sort of thing where you know three days later we

00:01:57.560 don't know the results of the election who knows of course i've been wrong before but i mean look

00:02:01.960 the basic fundamentals of the race are 65 of americans give or take are unhappy with direction of the

00:02:07.540 country they're unhappy with the foreign policy chaos they're unhappy with the fact they can't afford

00:02:12.500 groceries or housing uh and they're unhappy just generally with the fact that kamala harris is you 1.00

00:02:17.760 know not a real person who's running for president she clearly doesn't have her own ideas about how to 1.00

00:02:22.700 advance the country forward so i think that we're in a good spot now there was of course the switcheroo

00:02:28.200 from biden to harris and even though a lot of americans don't like kamala harris like you know

00:02:32.940 she's younger and she's not as infirm as joe biden is and so that sort of invigorated uh the democratic

00:02:38.820 base a little bit and you see that sugar high in a little bit of the public polling i mean we're

00:02:43.000 about eight weeks to go before election day and um the public polls have shifted a little bit in

00:02:48.640 their direction but what we're seeing both when we talk to the kamala harris like the journalists

00:02:54.600 that are close to the kamala harris campaign i mean you know how this goes right you sort of give

00:02:58.420 journalists some information they give you some information uh you yourself are a journalist or at

00:03:02.780 least you once were um and so our numbers their numbers very clearly show that she's not doing

00:03:10.820 very well in the states that she needs to win yeah but a lot could change and we have to get out the

00:03:15.960 vote and there of course are all these ways in which democrats have been become very good at using both

00:03:21.960 big tech but also the sort of ballot harvesting operation to try to squeeze out as many votes as

00:03:27.580 possible in particular areas so we have to do that ourselves and i think that we're a much better

00:03:32.020 position to do it in 2024 than we were in 2020 though there's a lot of catching up to do but on

00:03:37.240 balance man when the country's not going in the right direction and people fondly remember the

00:03:41.920 presidency of donald trump because take-home pay was going up i think that puts us in a good position

00:03:46.480 but we still have to run our race but you know my prediction 60 40 um is that we have a relatively

00:03:53.380 early night on tuesday night um and i think the 40 percent is it's probably tight but we still win

00:04:01.340 and you think they'll accept that well yeah it's a good question right i mean they'll be like we call

00:04:08.560 this race for donald trump and it'll be like you know he's the president i didn't vote for him but

00:04:11.660 that's okay well i think that look there's only so much they can do right they've already switched

00:04:20.000 out their candidates six weeks before their convention uh they've already sort of marshaled

00:04:25.940 the ballot harvesting operation which of course is the story of 2020 it's not like you know it's it's

00:04:30.760 not ballot machines were hacked into the story of 2020 is that they really you know turned on this

00:04:36.320 ballot harvesting machine and they used of course big tech to silence stories that were negative about

00:04:40.840 joe biden uh they're certainly going to do that again they're already seeing that right the technology

00:04:44.780 sector is already fully in the tank uh for for kamala harris they've obviously switched out their 0.99

00:04:50.180 candidates so all the negative feelings that people had about joe biden uh don't necessarily get

00:04:55.160 translated onto kamala harris they have different negative feelings but but it is different um so

00:05:01.100 yeah i think they're doing everything they can to ensure that donald trump is an elected president

00:05:04.700 again but there is only so much they can do and i think it's important you know for those of us who

00:05:10.380 think like you and i do there's this big question right about like how what's actually going on with

00:05:15.340 the people who run the country are they evil geniuses or are they incompetence and the more that i get to

00:05:21.760 know these people and the more that i i sort of spend time around them the more i think that they're

00:05:26.600 much more incompetent than they are evil geniuses and so that makes me think what they're doing we

00:05:32.940 can see it's all out in the open and we just have to push back against it as well as we can but not

00:05:38.160 assume that these people can like i mean look i just don't see any evidence that these people are

00:05:42.480 like controlling the puppet strings and they're going to do everything that they can they are going

00:05:47.560 to do everything that they can but it's not that much so right now yeah i think donald trump's going

00:05:51.380 to be the next president and if he gets elected president once again do you think they will accept

00:05:56.680 that so that are you concerned and yeah so this is they've spent the last 10 years you know taking

00:06:03.020 full control over the u.s military yeah which is i mean i'm sorry to even talk like that but they

00:06:07.240 think that way so it's worth saying it yeah so that was that's what worries me right so you hear

00:06:12.400 all this talk about threats to democracy right and the biggest threat to democracy in this country is

00:06:18.300 not like donald trump using legal maneuvers to challenge the 2020 election the biggest threat

00:06:23.060 to democracy is that the bureaucracy in washington dc is fundamentally misaligned with at least half the

00:06:29.680 country right yes so what i i worry less about is like are they going to let trump win well it's not

00:06:34.520 going to be easy but i actually do sitting here right now maybe i'm wrong but i do feel very confident

00:06:39.080 that trump's going to be elected president that he will be president i think the real fight is going

00:06:43.820 to be when he becomes president and he tries to do things they're going to take him down and try to

00:06:48.980 take him down in a very big way and that's where the real fight is going to be and i think it's going

00:06:54.060 to look like a few different things so number one i really worry about the minute we start doing

00:06:59.380 anything on the deportation front like you have 25 million illegal aliens you and i've talked about i think

00:07:04.020 it's the biggest threat to our country you have got to get these people out of the country 1.00

00:07:07.500 you are going to have a reaction from the media from the tech sector that's unlike anything that

00:07:13.080 we've ever seen it is fascism come to america when we sell people who have come here illegally you have

00:07:18.760 to go back home right that that is going to be a major major uh focal point i think the other thing

00:07:23.960 that i really worry about tucker is bond markets right because the country's deeply in debt atlas come

00:07:29.120 here come here buddy hey hey come here come here come here sit sit lay down you're okay

00:07:37.440 just chill out i know you don't have your bed here he's used to a nice plush pillow here and

00:07:41.820 he's like what the hell none of my stuff is here i know he's a very good dog um so the the thing i

00:07:50.380 really worry about on on bond markets is okay we have call it 1.6 to 2 trillion dollars in debt

00:07:56.360 every single year in this country getting added to the national debt and the only thing that really

00:08:00.980 makes that serviceable is that interest rates are still pretty low right they're about four and a

00:08:04.800 half percent right now if interest rates go to eight percent and you're actually spending way

00:08:09.260 more to service the debt than you are on actual like good services and infrastructure for your

00:08:14.000 country like that can become a huge spiral that could take down the finances of this country we've

00:08:19.280 never had that in 200 plus years of being an american republic we've never had a true debt spiral in

00:08:24.780 this country so i really worry about do the bond markets do the international investors the people who

00:08:31.600 are getting rich off of globalization the people who've gotten rich from shipping our manufacturing

00:08:36.520 base to china the people who've gotten rich from a lot of wars do they try to take down the trump

00:08:41.480 presidency by spiking bond rates and and one of the things that i think a lot about and i talk to the

00:08:46.360 president about this a lot is when we think about who we're choosing as treasury secretary one of the

00:08:51.720 things the president of course it's his choice ultimately is we've got to find the guy who's going to

00:08:57.820 make sure that we can manage this country through a real time of crisis where we get the country's

00:09:03.060 finances back on track that is one of the ways they could take down donald trump and you have to ask

00:09:08.020 yourself the tools at their disposal they're doing everything that they can to manipulate voters i don't

00:09:12.840 think it's going to work but if trump wins it's not just going to be smooth sailing for four years

00:09:17.480 they're going to do everything that they can to take so the key number is that interest rate i think

00:09:21.240 that's probably the most the most important and the most impactful way they could try to take down his

00:09:25.360 presidency is by spiking the interest rates you saw this by the way tucker liz trust in in britain

00:09:30.680 yeah okay which by the way like i like liz trust i disagree with her on a lot of issues um but like

00:09:35.720 so i'm not i'm not trying to stand up or say liz trust is my person but look she came in she had a 0.99

00:09:41.020 plan and the bank of england i think made a lot of mistakes maybe intentional interest rates shot

00:09:47.820 through the roof and it took down her government in a matter of days of course we don't have the same

00:09:52.200 style of government but it would be devastating to the president if you had this bond market death

00:09:58.480 spiral and that's one of the things we're going to have to fight against when we win again i think

00:10:02.200 we're going to win yeah i think i think so too um and i think if you don't win barring some dramatic

00:10:08.980 unforeseen development it'll be hard for people to believe you didn't win because who would who would

00:10:13.320 vote for more of this but how do you prevent your opponents from spiking those rates well i think one

00:10:22.320 is you you have to get i mean look you have to have actual smart people in government and you i mean

00:10:30.160 this it sounds so simple and it sounds so obvious but one of the things that i think we have done wrong

00:10:36.840 on the republican side is you know we don't like the government generally right there are things that

00:10:43.220 we think the government should do but we want the government to be smaller than the democrats want

00:10:46.460 the government to be and so i think that that actually creates a blind spot where the things

00:10:51.140 the government does you actually want them to be done very well and you want them done by very smart

00:10:55.120 people and so i think you have to staff the treasury department with the right kind of people who

00:10:59.860 could manage various fiscal problems and then i also think that you have to be willing to actually

00:11:05.000 pursue whether you call it the trump agenda the america first agenda you actually have to be

00:11:10.240 willing to do this stuff even when the media and even when frankly some republicans howl in protest

00:11:14.760 right so one thing the president has talked a lot about by the way it's not just smart policy it's

00:11:19.940 also very smart politics is you need to penalize companies that are shipping america's industrial base

00:11:25.640 overseas and you need to reward companies that are hiring and building in the united states of america right

00:11:30.420 well one of the ways you do that is through tariffs you say if you're going to manufacture all your stuff

00:11:34.180 in china we're going to penalize you for trying to access american markets with goods that are made 0.99

00:11:40.280 by slaves in china or some other country now you do that you both create more prosperity at home you

00:11:46.100 also raise some revenue from the companies that are just going to say we're staying in china

00:11:50.120 you know your economic policy be damned but that actually stabilizes in a lot of ways the fiscal

00:11:56.220 situation in this country you've also got to tackle some of the big spending items i mean we still

00:12:01.420 have let me give you a crazy statistic so in 2019 uh total federal spending in this country was 4.5

00:12:08.140 trillion dollars uh in 2024 it will be north of six and a half trillion dollars okay where's that

00:12:13.660 two trillion dollar difference come from tucker now people will say and i think they're being

00:12:18.960 dishonest and they're being even malicious they'll say well that's social security and medicare you

00:12:22.460 have to fix social security medicare well of that delta man of that difference you're talking

00:12:26.780 about maybe a hundred billion dollars additional per year on social security maybe a hundred billion

00:12:31.360 dollars in medicare so there's still two trillion dollars that we're spending and what happened in

00:12:36.180 2020 covet right covet blew up the american federal debt and the american uh federal budget deficit and

00:12:43.700 we've got to get back to like some basic common sense and some basic sanity there and i think if we do

00:12:49.220 that you have smart people managing the bond markets of treasury and how we're auctioning off treasury

00:12:54.360 bonds and you actually have a president i know trump is is committed to this who's who's committed to

00:12:59.680 steering us through these very troubling financial times finally you unleash america's energy markets

00:13:05.780 because that drives down the cost of goods you do all those things in tandem and you actually get

00:13:10.820 america on a much more sustainable fiscal situation but that's a lot and you have to have a very strong

00:13:16.480 president and you have to have republicans who are willing to go along with it and i think that we

00:13:20.820 have that tucker but it's not easy right this is the basic we have to be good at government even

00:13:25.400 though we want the government to be smaller than the democrats we have to be good at government and

00:13:29.240 i think president trump is very committed to that we're going to have to see how much we can bring

00:13:33.560 our fellow republicans along so two uh pretty easy very popular ways to save money would be one

00:13:39.720 no more subsidizing illegal immigration that's exactly right we're not going to pay people to break 0.97

00:13:44.900 our laws we're not going to pay them to rob liquor stores you know or come into this country

00:13:48.980 illegal we're not going to give them free cell phones or free airplane tickets or housing vouchers

00:13:51.960 we're going to stop doing that and the second is we're going to stop sending billions of dollars

00:13:55.320 around the world to exactly people who hate us who yeah you know it when it doesn't serve our

00:14:00.140 interest yeah why can't we do those things well it's very important right so this is one of the

00:14:04.280 reasons why i'm instinctively skeptical and look i want finance i want social security medicare to be

00:14:08.820 financially sustainable for the long term they're very important programs for our elderly americans but

00:14:13.620 when people say the reason why we can't have reasonable spending policies is because of social

00:14:18.720 security and medicare i'm like whoa that's a distraction you're distracting from the reason

00:14:23.940 that we actually have an out of control budgetary picture that's why i just gave you the six and a

00:14:28.960 half versus four and a half trillion dollar number what are we really spending money on that is

00:14:34.060 unsustainable it's wars right it's foreign conflicts and you're right it's hundreds of billions of dollars

00:14:40.140 per year um that we're spending on illegal aliens now here's a crazy thing i've been in the senate for

00:14:45.460 not even two years when i ask people how much money okay talk about health care for illegals talk

00:14:52.640 about social security fraud talk about medicare fraud talk about housing vouchers because even

00:14:56.620 though illegal aliens aren't entitled to section 8 there's fraud in the program and also their

00:15:01.160 children are entitled to section 8 so of course that money flows to the illegal aliens add all this 0.90

00:15:06.580 up and then take probably 25 30 million people who are here illegally and maybe that undercounts it

00:15:11.640 how much are we actually spending per year on illegal aliens in this country no one in our

00:15:17.620 government knows okay i've heard estimates that it's a hundred billion dollars a year i've heard

00:15:21.840 estimates that it's 600 billion dollars a year i've heard estimates that it's even higher there are

00:15:26.940 ways to estimate it but we don't actually have good good ways to track this stuff because a lot of

00:15:31.520 the money tugger think about this a lot of the money is spent at the local level right so if you're

00:15:34.980 an illegal alien you commit a crime and you're you know you're in a local jail cell like we're not 0.99

00:15:39.580 really counting that money from or into the cost of of having illegal aliens but of course if you're

00:15:46.080 a municipality and you're spending forty thousand dollars a year to house some criminal who should

00:15:50.180 go back to where he came from that's real money right or let's take this example where do most

00:15:56.160 illegal aliens get their health care emergency rooms emergency rooms exactly right so what is why 0.99

00:16:01.780 you can't go to an emergency room now when you get sick the wait time in emergency rooms has nearly

00:16:06.900 doubled over the last few years because we have all these illegal aliens who are getting hospital 1.00

00:16:10.640 services at emergency rooms well obviously they're not paying the bill when they get it who pays the

00:16:15.500 bill the american taxpayer you add up all these costs and i think it's hundreds of billions of dollars

00:16:20.460 that we're spending on illegal aliens and this is why i think it's ridiculous for people to say well 0.58

00:16:24.340 we can't get america's fiscal picture under control unless we we cut you know social security

00:16:30.040 from american citizens who have paid into it for 45 years my response is why don't we start with the

00:16:35.640 wars and why don't we start with not giving illegal aliens a ton of benefits and then see where our 0.93

00:16:40.580 fiscal situation is after that we haven't done that those are wildly popular ideas i i can't imagine

00:16:47.760 that they're below 65 70 in the polls if you were to pose that question probably higher yeah yeah

00:16:53.040 probably higher but there's no sense that any of those things are going to happen because there's

00:16:58.100 so much money behind keeping them in place yeah what do you do about that well i think what you have to

00:17:05.020 do is first of all you have to go at the heart of the people who actually drive public opinion

00:17:10.800 and drive the decisions that are made in this country we don't tucker the reason why all these

00:17:16.420 popular things don't happen like why aren't we deporting illegal aliens why aren't we cutting off the 1.00

00:17:20.760 money spigot that goes to illegal aliens why aren't we stopping sending thousands of american 0.90

00:17:25.560 kids to die overseas in some pointless war it's because in reality right now we don't live in a real

00:17:30.920 democracy in this country right the people who call the shots in this country have further and

00:17:36.360 further divorced themselves from any kind of real democratic accountability right so ask yourself

00:17:43.220 in 2008 did america have a real choice between the foreign policy of john mccain and the foreign policy

00:17:50.080 of barack obama of course we did right they were they were saying in effect the exact same thing

00:17:53.980 for the first time in 2016 we had a real choice between donald trump and hillary clinton okay of

00:18:01.520 course the american people chose donald trump despite every every incentive and every pressure to not

00:18:07.420 choose donald trump the american people still chose donald trump and of course what did they do they

00:18:11.560 spent the next four years trying to destroy them the question is like how do we do these things

00:18:15.600 you have to make the actual levers of government power accountable to the american people and that

00:18:21.940 means you've got to be able to fire bureaucrats uh who don't do their job right this is a common sense

00:18:27.220 i mean maybe take like a very isolated example if you were to poll what percentage of americans think

00:18:33.920 that the va should be more responsive to the health care concerns of american veterans that's probably a

00:18:38.820 95 issue okay and i you know i'm a veteran myself i served in the marine corps i went to iraq um i have

00:18:45.240 gone through the va health care system and by the way 92 percent 95 percent of the people who work in the va are

00:18:50.820 great but as you know in any organization if you have five percent of people who refuse to do their

00:18:55.320 job and you can't get rid of them they make it impossible for the 95 percent of people who are 1.00

00:18:59.960 trying to do their job and of course the veterans suffer because of it so why does the va not work as

00:19:04.920 well as the american people want it to because the five percent who don't do their job at the va

00:19:09.720 are calling the shots and making it harder on everybody else and that basic story is true in our

00:19:14.680 entire government the joint chiefs of staff donald trump orders the joint chiefs of staff to do a troop

00:19:20.020 rotation in syria the joint chiefs of staff lie to him they actually stagger the troop redeployments

00:19:26.200 in a way where it looks like they're obeying his orders when in actuality they're actually

00:19:30.260 disobeying his orders okay every single person who was involved in that decision should be fired

00:19:35.360 you have to make not a government how can the military in a democracy act you know the commander

00:19:42.020 in chief the commander in chief tells you to do something in control of the military like that's the

00:19:45.540 nightmare scenario that's right but that but that that is part and parcel of the broader problem

00:19:49.900 which is you don't have real democratic accountability in our government and to get it

00:19:53.920 back the people who call the shots have to be responsive to the elected president and this is

00:19:59.140 one of you know trump's main campaign platforms one of the main things that he talks about and of

00:20:03.740 course i think he learned in some ways the hard way during his first four years in office

00:20:07.260 is the president recognizes that if you have people in your government who you tell to do something

00:20:13.360 and they disobey you that's not like checks and balances they're part of your government

00:20:18.220 the check and balance is the house the senate the judiciary right if the people in your own

00:20:22.920 government aren't obeying you you have got to get rid of them and replace them with people who are 1.00

00:20:27.020 responsive to what the president is trying to do if you don't have that you don't have a real

00:20:30.800 democratic accountability because that's the system at stake that's right that's democratic control

00:20:35.460 how do voters have any control over their government if the people they elect have no control that's

00:20:40.340 exactly right man and and and again it's it's we have to sort of remind ourselves that it's real

00:20:44.640 people who suffer because of this right uh there are americans who are dead because the joint chiefs

00:20:49.440 of staff didn't listen to the president united states when he said you need to do troop redeployments

00:20:54.280 out of syria there are veterans who are dead because the va does not function as well as it could

00:20:59.960 because the president needs to be able to fire again the small number but the small number of people

00:21:05.700 who aren't doing their job and that same story repeats itself rinse and repeat through the entire

00:21:10.460 american government you have got to have basic democratic accountability i think you know most

00:21:14.680 americans recognize like look we're fine with you know bureaucrats making a reasonable salary we're fine

00:21:21.340 with people having a good life but they've got to do their job right when you're in public service

00:21:25.840 you've got to do your job and whether you're an elected official or an unelected bureaucrat if you're

00:21:30.620 not doing your job you got to get out there and make way for somebody who will

00:21:33.400 so if you guys win and you start firing people who are acting against orders of their commander

00:21:42.180 in chief and against the expressed will of voters the new york times will call it a fascist takeover

00:21:46.320 that's exactly right so the question is do you care well i think we have to not care you know you

00:21:52.520 have to care about public opinion of course because you have to actually make the case to the american

00:21:56.100 people but if you're acting on behalf of the public you have to say i mean look it is it's what's so

00:22:02.460 funny about it is it's the opposite right real democracy is when the elected leaders the voters

00:22:08.240 elect actually make the decisions of the government but fascism if it's anything it's that the voters

00:22:13.700 don't get any say in how their government actually operates so i i think you have to do it and and look

00:22:18.700 man i've been in politics all of two years but there are all of these really subtle ways in which

00:22:23.860 the media the tech sector the people who call the shots try to manipulate the american public and

00:22:30.000 manipulate political leadership into not doing the things the american people actually want so

00:22:35.780 here let me give you an example mark this down i guarantee in 18 months or so we're going to have

00:22:41.380 this is going to be prophetic so right now according to public opinion polling 65 of americans give or

00:22:48.640 take support mass deportations meaning 25 million people here you've got to send some of them back to 1.00

00:22:54.280 where they came from okay that's that's a common sense issue two-thirds of americans give or take

00:22:58.680 support it in 18 months there will be media stories and there will be public opinion polls to back it

00:23:04.820 up that actually americans do not support mass deportations that donald trump is doing all of

00:23:10.160 these terrible things and he has to stop it's in it's inhumane it's evil and the american public

00:23:16.060 don't support it the same people who put those public opinion polls together are the same people

00:23:20.960 who say for example that donald trump was going to lose wisconsin by 17 points remember that

00:23:25.120 three days before the 2020 election donald trump was supposed to lose wisconsin by 17 points and set

00:23:30.840 to the side all of the debates about what happened in 2020 wisconsin was basically a tight election

00:23:35.320 so these guys use public polls they use the media not not even just to manipulate public opinion but to

00:23:43.260 manipulate our leadership about what public opinion actually says so how does that happen so those

00:23:48.680 polls are fake is what you're saying oh absolutely they're fake they're absolutely fake um and we see

00:23:53.860 this i mean again you know this is like very nerdy but let's like go down this polling rabbit hole okay

00:23:59.980 so i i you know a friend of mine i think is the best pollster in america every race i've ever seen

00:24:04.420 him poll he's way better than anybody else okay so good pollster versus a standard media poll

00:24:09.320 fabrizio fabrizio tony farrizio great guy he's the president's pollster okay um take a standard media poll

00:24:15.600 and ask yourself like what are they doing those polls are all conducted by what's called online panels

00:24:22.060 in other words they have a group of people that they go to again and again and again they ask

00:24:26.580 their opinion well who are the people who are going to respond aggressively to online panels about what

00:24:31.860 they feel about every issue of the day a bunch of highly engaged typically far left typically people

00:24:39.540 with professional degrees people who are not representative of the american people at large

00:24:43.820 right meanwhile most americans are trying to pay their mortgage and trying to take care of their kids

00:24:48.220 and trying to do all the things that are necessary to live a life in this country and they're not

00:24:53.240 answering the phone when a pollster picks up so if you actually look at the good pollsters they're

00:24:58.140 telling you a radically different story because they're talking to a representative sample of the united

00:25:02.940 states and the fake media pollsters are talking to a very narrow slice of the united states and again

00:25:08.860 they're trying to sell us a story and it's not just again it's not just this is not primarily to

00:25:13.660 manipulate the american people i think i think it's to manipulate us meaning elected officials

00:25:19.060 because i've sat in lunches with a number of my colleagues who will say look at this poll and look

00:25:24.800 how americans are responding to this or that issue and then you realize that that exact same poll was

00:25:31.800 wildly inaccurate two years ago why are you making your judgments about what the american people believe

00:25:37.100 based on some poll and oh by the way why don't you express some leadership why don't you just actually

00:25:41.900 have a view and go to the american people and try to persuade them that your view is wise and then

00:25:48.060 enact legislation in accordance with that wisdom right like that that's how real leadership should

00:25:52.840 work deceptive and i think what people don't realize is that a lot of these polls are designed

00:25:57.180 not to measure opinion but to shape it yes so they are tools of influence 100 president trump said this

00:26:05.000 recently in an interview where he said that the purpose of some of these polls that say okay you're

00:26:10.380 down 17 points in wisconsin so say you're a republican voter you want to support donald trump and jd vance

00:26:15.860 and of course the polls now are much better um for us than they were back in 2020 but let's say you want

00:26:22.000 to support president trump and you read a story that says he's down by 17 points in wisconsin why even show

00:26:27.840 up right so there's a voter suppression dynamic here where you try to get people to get depressed

00:26:33.960 and to drop out of the democratic process don't even go and vote if the president is down by so much

00:26:39.480 the purpose of these polls is actually manipulation of both the public themselves but also of course

00:26:45.360 elected officials and i think that we just have to we have to have the courage to trust our own

00:26:50.540 convictions to say screw you i don't buy the polls and to do what you think is right on on behalf of

00:26:55.960 the country sounds so common sense a lot of like the leaders don't live in the world of common sense so

00:27:02.920 you said at the outset that um you know if the current trajectory continues you're pretty confident

00:27:10.080 you're gonna win yeah i mean you look you can never be sure and you know i've been wrong before

00:27:15.880 but i i just look the energy on the ground is really good right i mean you know we had an event

00:27:22.200 yesterday in arizona and you know we had a few thousand people there and we didn't have a rock star

00:27:26.960 or rapper there we just had a few thousand people and i'm the vp candidate i'm not the presidential

00:27:30.240 candidate um president trump is getting 20 000 person crowds i do think that crowd size is

00:27:37.020 predictive of enthusiasm and so you're seeing a lot of evidence that things are are that our voters are

00:27:42.000 enthused the internal numbers are good people aren't happy with the direction of the country i feel like

00:27:47.260 we're gonna win but yes yeah everything you're saying makes sense i think it's demonstrable but you've

00:27:51.820 got to think that the kamala harris campaign is also aware of this that they're maybe not lying to

00:27:56.600 themselves who may be involved in fake polls designed to mislead you know others but they

00:28:01.980 are probably clear-eyed about their chances they are and i doubt that i just i just have trouble

00:28:07.740 believing they're just gonna sit back and think well you know trump's tried hard people kind of prefer

00:28:12.140 him yeah well it's funny what do you think could happen between now and election yeah well it's it's

00:28:16.520 funny man because um you know how this works but i'll sort of give some insight into your uh into this

00:28:22.760 for your your viewers and your listeners okay so i have said publicly i've been attacked by this from

00:28:27.920 the left i've said look kamala's own internal polls are not very good right now and of course the left

00:28:33.400 you say well jd vance is the vp candidate for republicans nobody in kamala harris's campaign is

00:28:38.740 talking to him that's right by the way kamala harris's campaign is not talking to me but they

00:28:42.260 are talking to journalists yeah and then those journalists want insights into what's going on

00:28:46.740 with the republican ticket they want to see our internal numbers and look the journalists are

00:28:52.540 telling me that kamala harris doesn't like her numbers the journalists are telling me our campaign

00:28:57.520 does like their numbers there's a consistency of story here journalists act is kind of like it's an

00:29:02.800 information they're like the intelligence operatives right like totally true and some of them are working

00:29:07.300 for intelligence yeah journalists are to electoral politics with like the cia is the international

00:29:13.340 relations people think just like in polling it they go polls are designed to measure what people

00:29:17.580 think journalists are designed to report what happened no journalists are players in the political

00:29:21.540 system yes and they do not disclose that to their readers and and you see it up close but it's

00:29:28.040 interesting they play the role of kind of like covert diplomats between the yes yes they do yeah and

00:29:32.340 i'll tell you i mean in 2016 what the journalists were telling you was hillary clinton's campaign is

00:29:37.940 confident but then some of them like bill clinton were very not confident yeah and in 2020 they were

00:29:43.020 saying nobody really knows what's going on and in 2024 they're saying kamala harris is feeling a

00:29:48.920 little bit rough about her chances the trump people are very are feeling good about their chances look

00:29:54.000 i think we're in a good spot but you can't take this stuff for granted right and by the way i think

00:29:59.400 it goes in both ways right if you take two rows you have a picture uh you can get demotivated if you

00:30:06.300 take too pessimistic of a picture you can get demotivated excuse me we still have to do our job we have

00:30:11.220 to go out there persuade voters right to go out there knock on doors if you're watching this and

00:30:15.500 you want to get involved in the campaign like go and do it go to donaldjtrump.com volunteer become a

00:30:20.920 door knocker because we actually can win this race i think we will win this race but not if we sit on

00:30:26.620 our asses and don't get out there right what if the hot war breaks out between now and november 0.69

00:30:31.160 well that's a that's a very good question um look i obviously just baseline i don't want a hot war 0.95

00:30:38.900 to break out because i don't think we have a functional president right now right i i genuinely

00:30:43.580 think that the closest thing that we have to a president right now is kamala harris because joe

00:30:47.420 biden clearly can't do the job the people around him recognize that and so it's the bureaucrats and

00:30:53.240 kamala who are calling the shots if god forbid a true hot war not just between russia and ukraine but

00:30:58.820 a broader regional war broke out or not just between you know israel and some of iran's proxies

00:31:03.960 but a broader regional war it would scare the hell out of me to have kamala harris at the helm 1.00

00:31:08.240 and i i think that we we have to do a better job at highlighting it's not just kamala harris you know

00:31:14.420 we say these things about her that are true she wanted to defund the police she wanted to ban 0.94

00:31:18.920 fracking she wanted to open the border these things are all true in fact she is on video saying

00:31:23.160 these things but there's a fundamental incompetence to kamala harris okay so let me ask you what what 0.96

00:31:30.340 was the biden turnover rate among the people who worked for joe biden about 78 that's by the way

00:31:36.540 about medium for american politics right working the white house is a tough job donald trump did better

00:31:41.880 than that but i think donald trump you know a lot of people have a very certain a very intense loyalty

00:31:46.340 to donald trump so it's not surprising he did better um okay kamala harris 92 turnover if a hot

00:31:53.600 war breaks out who is even going to be staffing the administration if you have a person who can't

00:31:59.580 keep human beings in the executive administration of the government right that's scary if you're such

00:32:06.160 an incompetent person that 90 92 of your staff doesn't want to work for you maybe we shouldn't

00:32:11.320 elect that person as president where you watch kamala harris give an interview i mean this is not a

00:32:15.940 person who has like very well-developed views about what she wants to do in the world she's

00:32:20.620 fundamentally a cog in the wheel of a very corrupt machine that scares the hell out of me when that

00:32:25.420 person goes to negotiate with a world leader about a hot war so okay we're talking about the substance

00:32:31.420 okay i know you're interested in the politics too i i don't know like if god forbid the russia ukraine

00:32:36.780 thing becomes a broader regional war i don't know if that helps kamala harris or hurts her 1.00

00:32:40.580 um i almost think it's like too grotesque to even think about because hundreds of thousands and

00:32:46.100 maybe more people would be dying and i would just be terrified for the country and terrified for

00:32:50.620 humanity well i couldn't agree more obviously i agree with that vehemently i only ask because i wonder

00:32:56.340 if there's an incentive i i think they're desperate yeah i think they worry that absolutely you guys get

00:33:01.860 back in that you're going to be a little less humorless and forgiving this time a lot of people

00:33:05.420 committed very serious crimes against the united states they're currently serving government like

00:33:10.480 they have they're afraid of what happens if you win and they should be so like do they have an

00:33:16.280 incentive to start a hot war i guess that's my question yeah no it's it's look it's a totally fair

00:33:20.080 question and i don't know because i don't know that it actually helps them right because one of the

00:33:24.560 things that look even president trump's critics would have to admit like remember this like i i i was a

00:33:30.600 trump critic back in 2016 of course you remember this the president uh remembers this very well 0.57

00:33:34.740 what does he say to you he busts my balls about it all the time and you know you hear these people 0.59

00:33:38.580 who say well you know trump and biden are both you know too old for the presidency and it's like 0.87

00:33:43.520 trump's memory is like a steel trap trust me i know because he remembers what i said about him

00:33:48.020 in september of 2015 to like an excruciating level of detail but obviously you know the president

00:33:54.660 and i um are are um like very simply i changed my mind because he was a great president right but

00:34:01.100 remember back then the thing that they said about him is that he would start a nuclear oh i remember

00:34:07.940 right that was the main thing all right you've got this cowboy he's going to start a nuclear war with 0.94

00:34:13.320 russia or china or somebody else and even his critics admit that in hindsight he was actually the

00:34:19.420 president of peace now of course conflicts break out bad things happen the president can't

00:34:24.540 control everything but he was remarkably good at using diplomatic leverage and the threat of

00:34:29.480 american power to keep the world in a place of relative calm and stability so if a hot war breaks 0.97

00:34:35.780 out my guess would be a lot of americans would say holy shit we've got to get back to the guy who 0.99

00:34:41.100 knows how to manage the world not the person who's so incompetent that she blundered us into this 0.97

00:34:46.020 conflict in the first place but i mean look man like who knows by the way it's shocking how little

00:34:51.660 we know about the guy who shot donald trump in the head i mean weeks later months later we still have

00:34:56.480 no idea we allegedly have no idea what the guy's real motive is but do i think that they are going

00:35:01.640 to do increasingly crazy things to try to prevent donald trump from becoming president yes i don't

00:35:06.540 know exactly what that's going to look like i think we have to be prepared for it and we just have

00:35:11.280 to do everything we can to make sure he wins last question and as to what you just said

00:35:15.860 trump gets shot in front of everybody live on tv and the media you know bury it but there's also

00:35:24.020 you would think a process in place to find out what exactly was that yeah who was the person who did

00:35:28.940 it why did he do it why was he allowed to do it is that process underway i never hear trump talk about

00:35:35.740 it i never hear you talk about like what when are we going to find out what that was yeah i mean

00:35:40.040 part of the reason why we don't talk about it that much is because we recognize that kamala harris

00:35:44.320 runs the administration right now and do we like do we trust kamala harris's department of justice to 0.99

00:35:50.440 to really investigate this stuff i mean i don't uh i don't think the president does either but there

00:35:55.100 needs to be a real investigation into this stuff um i think it's bizarre that we don't know anything

00:35:59.740 about the guy's motive though i've heard you know various rumors we don't really know anything about

00:36:03.720 the guy's motive i think there clearly were some very serious security breakdowns um some of my

00:36:09.740 colleagues in the senate have done a good job of pointing this stuff out but unless you have an

00:36:13.400 administration that's willing to cooperate uh you can't actually do this stuff i think he'd be much

00:36:18.080 better at sniffing out uh what's going on with with all these security breakdowns but i i mean i i think

00:36:25.420 so here's this should be actually a media scandal okay so kamala harris is running against donald trump 1.00

00:36:34.280 for president kamala harris runs the government right now and donald trump came within millimeters of

00:36:40.320 having his life taken by a massive security breakdown she should be using every lever of

00:36:46.100 power to force insight and to force some sunlight into what's actually been going on here what break

00:36:53.140 breakdown happened the fact that she's totally uninterested in it i think is a real scandal her 0.99

00:36:57.320 political opponent nearly got killed and she has not used her government to actually investigate why 0.87

00:37:03.120 or what security breakdowns led to him almost getting killed the media and everybody else should be

00:37:08.060 really pissed off about this because she could be doing much more than she's doing right now but it

00:37:12.040 suggests like a level of darkness that's hard for for me to accept what is that i mean i don't know

00:37:19.180 right uh is it incompetence is it that she doesn't want to get to the bottom of it is it that if a story

00:37:24.420 comes out that this guy was a left-wing radical does it help donald trump and so she wants to hide the

00:37:28.320 motive like there are so many different explanations here for what could be going on but look man i'm a realist

00:37:34.060 do i think that we're going to find out what actually happened um in bucks county pennsylvania

00:37:38.600 before the election no i don't because every incentive that exists in our government right now

00:37:43.520 is to hide it is to suppress it is to lie about it is to cover up for various people's failures

00:37:48.860 and because of that look man i just don't think we're going to learn a whole lot about it we're

00:37:52.660 going to try and my senate again ron johnson's a great great friend of mine a great senate colleague

00:37:57.740 does a very good job i know he is obsessed with trying to get to the bottom of the security failure

00:38:01.580 like how did the guy get with an ar-15 130 yards from the president which as you know that is like

00:38:07.120 a pot shot right that's a layup for an ar-15 um it's shocking in some ways that president trump

00:38:12.900 didn't lose his life but the fact that we're not more focused on the security breakdowns that led to

00:38:17.880 that in the first place look man it's bizarre it's dark and i think unfortunately we're not going to

00:38:23.400 learn a whole lot about it until november and the problem is that like so many american young people

00:38:27.880 in their 20s he had no social media profile whatsoever yeah never went online never went

00:38:33.740 online and never said anything publicly and everybody he was basically a ghost yeah a ghost

00:38:39.260 who just so happened to nearly kill the future president of the united states and uh yeah man

00:38:44.340 it's it's pretty weird it's pretty weird vance senator jd vance thank you very much absolutely

00:38:49.280 thanks man appreciate it thanks for listening to the tucker carlson show if you enjoyed it you can go

00:38:55.260 to tuckercarlson.com to see everything that we have made the complete library tuckercarlson.com

The Tucker Carlson Show - September 18, 2024

JD Vance： The Immigration Crisis, How Polls Are Used to Fool You, and the Left’s Plan to Stop Trump

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