The Tucker Carlson Show - John Mearsheimer： The Palestinian Genocide and How the West Has Been Deceived Into Supporting It

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00:00:32.920 Professor, thank you for doing this.

00:00:35.080 The arc of, and it's not the topic of today's conversation, but the arc of your career as someone who's just watched it pretty carefully all of these years,

00:00:42.260 you've wound up where I think all of us want to be, which is universally respected regarded as an oracle.

00:00:47.620 It must be sort of nice to look back and be vindicated.

00:00:51.360 So anyway, so I'm honored to have you.

00:00:53.820 Where are we in Ukraine right now?

00:00:56.060 Well, we're in deep trouble, if you mean the United States and Ukraine.

00:01:00.840 Yes, that's what I'm saying.

00:01:01.060 You talk about we.

00:01:22.820 The fact is that the Russians are winning the war, and there's no way that Ukraine can rescue the situation. 0.92

00:01:32.600 If you look at the balance of power in terms of weaponry and in terms of manpower, the number of soldiers that each side has, the Ukrainians are in a hopeless situation.

00:01:43.400 And furthermore, they're heavily dependent on the West for support.

00:01:47.280 And President Trump has made it clear that he's not going to refill the Biden pipeline once all the weaponry in that pipeline runs out.

00:01:57.060 So the Ukrainians are doomed. 1.00

00:01:58.840 And if you look at what's happening on the battlefield, it's quite clear that the Ukrainians understand that.

00:02:04.560 Their defenses are slowly but steadily collapsing.

00:02:08.140 Now, one might say, well, can't we get a negotiated settlement?

00:02:12.920 Can't we bring this war to an end?

00:02:14.820 And the fact is that neither the Ukrainians nor the West, and here we're talking mainly about the Europeans, is willing to cut a deal that's acceptable to the Russians.

00:02:25.540 So there's no way you're going to have a diplomatic settlement to this war.

00:02:30.820 It's going to be settled on the battlefield, and the Russians are going to win an ugly victory, and you're going to have a frozen conflict.

00:02:40.160 Why can't you have a negotiated settlement?

00:02:42.380 Because Russia has a set of demands.

00:02:46.000 There are three main demands, and I'll spell them out in a second.

00:02:49.360 But they are unacceptable to the Ukrainians. 1.00

00:02:52.260 They're unacceptable to the West.

00:02:54.920 Donald Trump may find them acceptable, but he's surrounded by people in his administration, and it's certainly true in the American foreign policy establishment, who wouldn't accept those demands.

00:03:06.700 And the big three demands are, number one, that Ukraine has to be a neutral state.

00:03:13.520 It cannot be a NATO, and it cannot have a security guarantee from the United States or from the West more generally.

00:03:21.440 So it has to be neutral.

00:03:22.680 Second is that Ukraine cannot have a significant offensive military capability.

00:03:32.040 Ukraine has to be demilitarized to the point where it doesn't present a threat to Russia.

00:03:37.540 And then third, and maybe most important of all, the Ukrainians and the West have to accept the fact that Russia has annexed Crimea and those four oblasts in eastern one-fifth of Ukraine that they now almost occupy.

00:03:55.660 So, in other words, you're asking Ukraine to give up about 20 percent of its territory, and the Ukrainians won't do that, and they won't agree not to be a NATO, and they will not agree to disarm in some meaningful way.

00:04:11.140 So there's no way you get a settlement.

00:04:12.760 So, but there will be a settlement, by your description, because there will be a victory, so there will just be—it's not an official settlement, but there will be a new status quo in which Russia controls a fifth of what was Ukraine, and that's just going to happen.

00:04:30.860 So why wouldn't you want to get out of that with as little destruction as possible?

00:04:35.680 Well, you're going to get an armistice in all likelihood, and this is why we say you'll have a frozen conflict that will present all sorts of problems moving down the road.

00:04:46.600 I have long argued that the Ukrainians should cut a deal now, because what's going to happen is the Russians are going to end up taking more territory, and the Russians have made it clear that any territory they take, they'll keep. 0.76

00:05:02.680 And furthermore, more Ukrainians are going to die the longer the war goes on.

00:05:08.240 So if you believe, like I do, and many people do, that Ukraine is losing, the smart thing to do is cut a deal now and minimize your losses, both in terms of territory and people killed on the battlefield.

00:05:19.780 But you just can't sell that argument.

00:05:22.360 Why can't you sell that argument?

00:05:25.300 I think it's probably nationalism in the case of the Ukrainians.

00:05:29.580 The Ukrainians view the Russians as an existential threat, and they're willing to fight and die in huge numbers. 0.98

00:05:37.420 They're willing to make incredible sacrifices to do everything they can to win this war, and they just won't quit.

00:05:44.220 And in terms of the West, it's easy for the West.

00:05:46.680 So I just want to say I understand that and respect that.

00:05:49.260 I think they're wrong, but I think it's self-defeating, but I certainly think it's honorable, those impulses.

00:05:55.020 But I don't understand the West's stake in this exactly.

00:05:59.960 Well, I don't believe the West has a strategic stake in this for one second.

00:06:04.080 But the Russophobia in the West is so powerful at this point in time that, especially among the elites in Europe and in the United States, that getting them to concede that the Russians have won this war or going to win this war is just unacceptable.

00:06:26.100 And have legitimate security concerns on their border.

00:06:29.180 I mean, they're not allowed.

00:06:30.900 The Russians are not allowed to have legitimate security concerns in the minds of most Western elites.

00:06:38.260 Why?

00:06:39.720 I don't know.

00:06:41.440 It befuddles me.

00:06:43.060 If you look at the Russian reaction to NATO expansion into Ukraine, which I believe is the taproot of this war, it's analogous to America's Monroe Doctrine.

00:06:57.960 The United States, under those circumstances, would allow the Soviet Union to put missiles in Cuba or to locate a naval base at Cienfuegos in Cuba.

00:07:08.100 That was just unacceptable.

00:07:09.480 This is what the Monroe Doctrine is all about.

00:07:11.360 We'd never allow China to station military forces in Mexico or in Canada.

00:07:18.580 But yet we think we have the right to move NATO far enough eastward to include Ukraine and then put NATO assets, including American military assets, in Ukraine.

00:07:31.720 And this is not of concern to the Russians.

00:07:34.940 They shouldn't care.

00:07:36.460 They should recognize that Ukraine has the right to do whatever it wants.

00:07:40.260 NATO has the right to expand wherever it wants.

00:07:43.520 And Russia has no say in the matter.

00:07:45.360 The Russians, of course, don't accept this because they have a Monroe Doctrine of their own. 0.59

00:07:50.020 But we can't get it through our thick skulls that this is foolish thinking on our part and is destined to lead to trouble as it has.

00:07:59.520 It's interesting that the standard that U.S. foreign policymakers apply to Russia is different from a standard they'd apply to any other country, including China and even North Korea.

00:08:13.120 They just they don't have the same level of emotion about any other place.

00:08:17.620 It's Russia, Ukraine. 0.55

00:08:19.280 And I I find it baffling because on some level, this is, as you said at the outset, this is not about America's strategic interests.

00:08:26.920 We don't really have many there.

00:08:29.060 This is about an almost overwhelming emotional response from our leadership class to this conflict, this region.

00:08:38.060 And I think it's weird.

00:08:40.600 Yeah.

00:08:41.060 Yeah.

00:08:41.620 Well, I think also at this point in time, we have convinced ourselves, both the Europeans and the Americans, that Russia is a mortal threat to dominate all of Europe. 0.95

00:08:51.980 This is a ridiculous argument. 0.97

00:08:53.580 Do you think it is ridiculous? 1.00

00:08:54.620 It's a ridiculous argument. 0.99

00:08:56.280 As you have seen, the war started in 2022. 0.85

00:09:00.360 We're well over five years into this war, and the Russians have had a very difficult time conquering the eastern one-fifth of Ukraine.

00:09:12.040 Just think about that.

00:09:13.260 Over three plus years, they have been unable to conquer all of the territory in those four oblasts that they've annexed.

00:09:21.660 Please tell me how this army is going to overrun all of Ukraine, then overrun Eastern Europe, and then overrun Western Europe. 0.96

00:09:29.940 This is a laughable argument. 0.97

00:09:32.220 Furthermore, if the Russians are foolish enough to try to occupy Western Ukraine, they're going to find themselves in a quagmire. 0.99

00:09:41.440 They're going to find themselves dealing with a huge amount of resistance from all of those ethnic Ukrainians in the western part of Ukraine who hate Russians. 0.97

00:09:50.900 This is why I don't think Putin is going to even try to conquer the western half.

00:09:56.300 Much less Poland and Romania and the rest. 1.00

00:09:58.260 Exactly.

00:09:58.780 Their view on that, by the way, in terms of occupying Eastern Europe, is we've been there, done that, and it did not work out very well.

00:10:07.180 Remember, they occupied Eastern Europe roughly from 1945 to the early 1990s when they pulled out after the Cold War ended.

00:10:15.240 They had to invade Hungary in 56.

00:10:17.360 They had to invade Czechoslovakia in 68.

00:10:20.340 They had to put down a major insurrection in East Germany in 1953.

00:10:24.820 They almost went into Poland three times. 0.90

00:10:28.100 They had their hands full dealing with the Romanians and the Albanians and the Yugoslavs. 0.95

00:10:34.220 I mean, the idea that a country like Russia is going to invade and occupy and run the politics of countries in Eastern Europe is a remarkably foolish idea.

00:10:46.360 And again, they don't even have the military capability to do that.

00:10:49.640 But that is the idea.

00:10:51.500 And when you talk to Europeans about it, as I often do, they say that Putin's aim is to restore the Soviet empire.

00:10:58.940 And he said that, and, you know, just listen to what he says.

00:11:02.720 He wants, he pines for the Soviet era, and he wants to restore it. 0.86

00:11:07.080 He's never said that.

00:11:08.080 In fact, he said that, you know, he can understand why someone in his or her heart pines for the Soviet Union, but in his or her head, it makes absolutely no sense.

00:11:19.820 He said that the idea that you can recreate the Soviet Union, number one, and then two, recreate the Soviet empire is a pipe dream.

00:11:29.260 And you might not like Vladimir Putin, but he is a very smart man.

00:11:33.960 He is a first class strategist.

00:11:35.760 And he surely understands that, you know, the idea of recreating the Soviet Union or the Soviet empire makes no sense at all.

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00:15:10.740 You spent 10 years in the U.S. military, graduated West Point during the Cold War.

00:15:15.480 Yes.

00:15:15.880 So your life for 10 years was focused on the Soviets, of course.

00:15:20.740 No question.

00:15:21.540 No question.

00:15:22.620 So that's 10 years.

00:15:24.080 That's a long time in your young life.

00:15:26.180 How were you able to transition mentally from viewing Russia as an enemy to viewing them as, you know, another country?

00:15:35.660 It's an interesting question.

00:15:36.920 Why weren't others able to do that?

00:15:39.600 Well, a lot were, but a lot weren't.

00:15:42.780 I think that what happened was that during the Cold War, when I started to think about the U.S.-Soviet competition,

00:15:53.300 the subject that I got interested in was the conventional balance of forces in Europe.

00:15:58.540 It was the NATO-Warsaw Pact balance.

00:16:01.760 And I wrote my dissertation on the subject of conventional deterrence, and it focused on the NATO-Warsaw Pact balance.

00:16:09.300 And my argument was, which was very controversial at the time, was that the Soviets were not 10 feet tall.

00:16:17.380 And actually, if a war did break out in Central Europe, the West or NATO would do very well,

00:16:24.340 that we would hold off the Soviets, that they would not win a quick and decisive victory, 0.86

00:16:30.080 which was the conventional wisdom at the time.

00:16:33.660 So in a very important way, I was engaged in threat deflation.

00:16:38.440 I always thought, when you looked at the Soviet Union, this is during the latter part of the Cold War,

00:16:44.400 when I was coming of age, that we greatly overestimated the threat,

00:16:49.840 and that the Soviet Union was not 10 feet tall.

00:16:54.000 So once the Cold War ends, and then we segue into the unipolar moment,

00:16:59.380 I'm already moving in that direction.

00:17:01.700 And then, during the 1990s, the Soviet Union, which has become Russia, is a total basket case. 0.53

00:17:08.660 I mean, it's the only threat that it represents is to itself.

00:17:12.840 It doesn't represent a threat to the West.

00:17:15.940 And in fact, Tucker, NATO expansion, which really gets going in 1994,

00:17:22.200 that's when Bill Clinton decides to expand NATO,

00:17:24.700 is not designed to contain Russia because there is no Russian threat.

00:17:29.820 So then Putin comes to power, and what happens from about 2000 up until the present

00:17:35.760 is that the West, and here we're talking about the United States as well, of course,

00:17:41.800 becomes increasingly Russophobic and hostile to Putin.

00:17:48.500 And I think it's in large part because Putin stands up to us.

00:17:51.480 I think that we get used to the idea, certainly in the 1990s, that we call the shots.

00:17:57.820 It's the unipolar moment.

00:17:59.480 And when we tell countries to jump, their only question is how high.

00:18:03.900 And we get away with that to some extent with Putin to begin with.

00:18:08.580 But then he begins to play hardball with us,

00:18:11.240 and he gives a very famous speech in Munich in 2007 where he throws down the gauntlet.

00:18:16.840 And from 2007 forward, relations really deteriorate.

00:18:23.300 And as they deteriorate, the Russophobia comes racing to the fore

00:18:27.620 and remains firmly in place today.

00:18:31.680 What is the point of NATO now?

00:18:35.280 Why do we still have NATO?

00:18:36.880 What's its objective?

00:18:38.740 Well, I think if you asked most Europeans,

00:18:41.380 and even many Americans in the American foreign policy establishment,

00:18:44.740 the argument would be that NATO serves as a pacifier.

00:18:49.700 In other words, it keeps the peace in Europe.

00:18:53.240 The United States is the most powerful state in NATO.

00:18:58.000 And the United States sits on top of all the European countries.

00:19:03.020 It provides security for them.

00:19:05.480 It provides a nuclear umbrella for them.

00:19:08.100 And that prevents the European countries from engaging in security competition with each other.

00:19:16.920 So we are a pacifying force.

00:19:20.020 And this is the reason that the Europeans today... 0.99

00:19:23.200 To prevent intra-European conflict?

00:19:24.760 Intra-European conflict, right?

00:19:27.060 Well, if you think about it,

00:19:28.860 up until 1945 when World War II ends,

00:19:34.380 you had had two world wars in the first half of the 20th century.

00:19:37.400 And then if you go back in time,

00:19:39.300 European countries had been fighting against each other

00:19:42.020 almost since the beginning of time.

00:19:45.620 Well, that's why there are so many European countries

00:19:47.280 and so many languages and different distinct cultures.

00:19:50.660 I mean, you might also make the argument

00:19:53.000 that's why Europe was so successful, because they were...

00:19:55.580 You can certainly make that argument.

00:19:56.960 And you can make the argument that that's why they were able to conquer

00:20:00.120 huge chunks of the planet and create these empires, 0.71

00:20:03.860 because they were very good at projecting military power.

00:20:07.460 These were martial societies before they became tourist destinations.

00:20:10.860 Yes.

00:20:11.480 But anyway, what happens during the Cold War

00:20:14.380 is the Soviets dominate one side of Europe

00:20:17.240 and we dominate the other side of Europe.

00:20:20.420 And as long as those two great powers are dominating

00:20:24.140 those two halves of Europe,

00:20:26.000 the countries located below them cannot fight among themselves.

00:20:30.660 OK, so what happens when the Cold War ends in 1989

00:20:35.760 and then into the 1990s

00:20:37.880 is that we decide that we're going to expand NATO eastward.

00:20:43.160 And as I said to you, it's very important to understand

00:20:45.420 that when we expand NATO eastward in the 90s

00:20:48.060 and then the early 2000s,

00:20:49.640 we're not aiming at containing Russia.

00:20:52.760 What we're interested in doing is taking the pacifier,

00:20:57.800 the American pacifier that sits over Western Europe

00:21:00.680 and putting it over Eastern Europe

00:21:03.280 and making Europe one giant zone of peace.

00:21:08.700 And the Europeans liked that idea.

00:21:11.220 You want to remember, after 1989,

00:21:13.480 lots of Europeans were very worried about Germany,

00:21:16.980 which reunified when the Cold War ended.

00:21:19.600 Yes.

00:21:19.940 And you can understand why Europeans were very nervous.

00:21:23.740 Yes.

00:21:24.120 But as long as the Americans stay in Europe, 0.98

00:21:28.420 as long as NATO remains intact,

00:21:31.460 the pacifier is there.

00:21:33.760 You know, most people don't realize this,

00:21:35.600 but the Soviets and then the Russians

00:21:37.940 were perfectly content to see the United States

00:21:42.500 remain in Europe

00:21:43.540 and for NATO to remain intact after the Cold War

00:21:48.320 because the Soviets slash Russians understood 0.84

00:21:51.660 that we served as a pacifier.

00:21:55.140 What they didn't want,

00:21:56.860 and they made this very clear,

00:21:58.540 was NATO expansion.

00:22:00.420 And of course, what we did,

00:22:03.080 starting in 1994,

00:22:04.960 was to expand NATO eastward.

00:22:07.440 Again, to move the pacifier

00:22:09.280 from over just Western Europe

00:22:11.660 to over all of Europe.

00:22:14.280 And that is what has produced

00:22:16.940 the catastrophe in Ukraine.

00:22:18.580 By the time NATO gets to the Baltics

00:22:20.400 and then we start talking openly,

00:22:22.200 as the Biden administration did,

00:22:23.320 just openly,

00:22:23.960 like at press conferences

00:22:24.760 about moving NATO into Ukraine,

00:22:28.040 it's very obvious

00:22:29.680 that that's going to trigger a conflict

00:22:31.040 with Russia at some point.

00:22:32.680 You know, how could it not?

00:22:33.480 Why didn't anyone pause and say,

00:22:36.840 okay, NATO's great,

00:22:38.220 obviously there's a massive budget,

00:22:39.660 we're all getting richer from NATO also,

00:22:42.680 but let's balance that

00:22:44.660 against like a war with Russia.

00:22:46.400 We don't want that.

00:22:47.300 Did anyone raise that point?

00:22:49.920 A couple points.

00:22:50.900 Just to get the dates right,

00:22:52.640 the second big tranche of NATO expansion,

00:22:56.220 which brings the Baltic states in,

00:22:58.240 is 2004.

00:22:59.800 Yep.

00:22:59.980 The first big tranche is 1999.

00:23:02.140 That's Poland, Hungary, 0.88

00:23:03.780 and the Czech Republic, 99.

00:23:05.640 Then 2004 is when the Baltic states come in.

00:23:09.600 2008 is when the critical decision is made,

00:23:13.720 April 2008,

00:23:14.960 to bring Ukraine into NATO, okay?

00:23:18.000 To get to the heart of your question,

00:23:20.360 what's very interesting

00:23:21.560 is if you go back and look at

00:23:23.220 many of the planning documents

00:23:25.160 from the 90s about NATO expansion,

00:23:28.980 people recognize at the time

00:23:31.560 that Ukraine is a special case 1.00

00:23:34.200 and it will be a huge source of trouble

00:23:38.340 if we move NATO into Ukraine.

00:23:41.700 So you can get away with Poland, 1.00

00:23:43.100 you can even get away with the Baltic states,

00:23:44.980 but Ukraine is a different matter.

00:23:47.100 And it's very important to understand

00:23:49.540 that we understood that from the get-go.

00:23:52.620 So the question then becomes,

00:23:54.260 which you're asking,

00:23:55.320 is why did we do it, right?

00:23:57.480 What's going on here?

00:23:58.540 Why didn't we just back off?

00:24:00.680 And I think the answer is 0.86

00:24:02.460 we thought we could shove it down their throat.

00:24:05.560 You want to understand,

00:24:06.880 they opposed the 99 expansion,

00:24:09.420 the first tranche.

00:24:10.480 We just shoved it down their throat.

00:24:12.620 Yeah, what's Boris Yeltsin going to do about it?

00:24:14.360 That's right.

00:24:15.080 That's exactly right.

00:24:16.260 What's he going to do about it?

00:24:17.680 And then 2004, Putin's in control now.

00:24:20.800 We shove it down their face, 0.99

00:24:22.460 down their throat again. 0.99

00:24:23.620 So in 2008,

00:24:26.100 immediately after NATO says

00:24:28.280 at the Bucharest,

00:24:29.400 April 2008,

00:24:30.740 NATO-Bucharest summit,

00:24:32.460 immediately after he says

00:24:33.920 that NATO says

00:24:36.280 that Ukraine will be brought into NATO,

00:24:38.860 Putin makes it manifestly clear

00:24:40.800 that this is unacceptable,

00:24:42.460 that this is an existential threat,

00:24:44.800 and that Russia will not let it happen.

00:24:47.900 And by the way,

00:24:49.040 at that April 2008,

00:24:51.600 NATO summit,

00:24:52.360 they said they were not only

00:24:54.000 going to bring Ukraine into NATO,

00:24:55.840 they're going to bring Georgia into NATO.

00:24:58.240 That's April 2008.

00:24:59.800 A war breaks out in Georgia

00:25:02.040 in August of 2008

00:25:04.120 over this very issue.

00:25:06.240 So you would expect us

00:25:07.720 to back off at that point,

00:25:09.540 but we don't back off.

00:25:11.040 In fact, we double down.

00:25:12.840 And then when the crisis first starts,

00:25:15.680 this is in 2014,

00:25:18.440 February 22nd, 2014,

00:25:20.480 that's when the crisis starts.

00:25:22.500 That's when the Russians take Crimea. 0.79

00:25:24.420 This is what you understand

00:25:26.260 or should understand

00:25:27.320 the Russians mean business.

00:25:29.160 Do we back off?

00:25:30.480 Do we try to accommodate

00:25:31.460 the Russians in any way?

00:25:33.580 Absolutely not.

00:25:34.660 We plow forward.

00:25:36.420 And then, of course,

00:25:36.960 we get the war in 2022.

00:25:38.960 And you ask yourself,

00:25:40.200 why did we do this?

00:25:41.420 And by the way,

00:25:42.800 if you look at the process,

00:25:45.500 the decision-making process

00:25:47.720 after Joe Biden moves

00:25:49.000 into the White House

00:25:49.860 in January 2021,

00:25:51.940 January 2021,

00:25:53.400 and then 13 months later,

00:25:55.360 the war breaks out,

00:25:57.340 Biden makes no effort

00:25:59.040 whatsoever

00:25:59.760 to accommodate the Russians.

00:26:02.100 So again,

00:26:02.840 the question is why?

00:26:03.920 What's going on here?

00:26:05.140 Yes.

00:26:05.740 We're just going to 1.00

00:26:06.580 shove it down their throat. 0.97

00:26:08.080 We think we're Godzilla. 0.53

00:26:09.540 We think it's still

00:26:11.060 the unipolar moment.

00:26:12.580 We're sorry to say it,

00:26:13.400 but this is not

00:26:14.100 a very safe country.

00:26:15.280 Walk through Oakland

00:26:16.000 or Philadelphia.

00:26:17.080 Yeah, good luck.

00:26:18.840 So most people,

00:26:20.380 when they think about this,

00:26:20.980 want to carry a firearm.

00:26:22.320 And a lot of us do.

00:26:23.940 The problem is

00:26:24.720 there can be massive

00:26:25.420 consequences for that.

00:26:26.760 Ask Kyle Rittenhouse.

00:26:28.020 Kyle Rittenhouse got off

00:26:28.840 in the end,

00:26:29.140 but he was innocent

00:26:29.680 from the first moment.

00:26:30.940 It was obvious once on video

00:26:32.520 and he was facing

00:26:33.600 life in prison anyway.

00:26:35.540 That's what the

00:26:36.820 anti-gun movement will do.

00:26:37.940 They'll throw you in prison

00:26:38.960 for defending yourself

00:26:39.820 with a firearm.

00:26:40.920 And that's why

00:26:41.440 a lot of Americans

00:26:42.340 are turning to Berna.

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00:26:56.160 These pistols,

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00:29:35.180 But why would you want to?

00:29:36.280 Even if you have

00:29:36.980 absolute power,

00:29:37.840 which of course doesn't exist,

00:29:39.020 but let's say you believed

00:29:40.120 you had it,

00:29:40.740 why would you want to do that?

00:29:42.580 I believe that once

00:29:44.000 the decision is made

00:29:45.300 in 2008

00:29:46.960 that you're going to bring

00:29:48.340 NATO

00:29:48.940 to Ukraine,

00:29:51.520 you're going to bring

00:29:52.400 Ukraine into the alliance,

00:29:53.960 that the idea

00:29:56.020 of backing off

00:29:57.980 is unacceptable

00:29:59.140 to the United States

00:30:00.540 and to the West.

00:30:01.760 You just don't do that.

00:30:03.140 That would be a sign

00:30:03.980 of weakness

00:30:04.480 and we cannot show weakness.

00:30:06.860 And I think a lot

00:30:07.580 of this thinking

00:30:08.160 has to do with

00:30:08.920 why we won't quit now.

00:30:10.800 One should say

00:30:12.240 to him or herself

00:30:13.180 at this point,

00:30:14.240 it's time to put

00:30:15.240 an end to this war

00:30:16.260 and accept the fact

00:30:17.520 that the Russians

00:30:18.260 have won

00:30:19.060 an ugly victory.

00:30:20.300 But we can't bring

00:30:21.360 ourselves to do that.

00:30:22.600 That would be showing

00:30:23.540 weakness.

00:30:24.620 So instead,

00:30:25.300 we continue

00:30:25.980 to plow on.

00:30:27.640 But in,

00:30:28.520 you know,

00:30:29.640 attempting to show strength,

00:30:30.800 we reveal weakness.

00:30:32.080 I mean,

00:30:32.260 that's my concern

00:30:33.100 is, you know,

00:30:34.120 once you project force

00:30:36.060 and it doesn't work,

00:30:37.000 then you're revealed

00:30:37.780 to the world as weak.

00:30:40.020 The limits of your power

00:30:40.900 are obvious to everybody.

00:30:42.000 It's better to threaten

00:30:43.620 than have, you know,

00:30:44.540 your true power concealed.

00:30:45.800 People can guess it,

00:30:46.700 what you can do.

00:30:47.360 But now there's no guessing.

00:30:48.400 We couldn't beat Russia. 0.96

00:30:50.320 That's correct.

00:30:51.260 Right.

00:30:51.560 So we lost a war

00:30:54.000 to Russia.

00:30:54.660 It's a proxy war,

00:30:55.600 but it was a war.

00:30:57.500 And so what does that mean?

00:31:00.240 Well,

00:31:00.980 it is,

00:31:01.960 you know,

00:31:03.020 a devastating defeat

00:31:05.020 for NATO.

00:31:06.500 Yeah.

00:31:06.760 Because we have invested

00:31:07.880 so much

00:31:08.980 in this war.

00:31:10.760 Right.

00:31:12.060 The other problem

00:31:13.280 that we face

00:31:14.100 is that the United States,

00:31:15.580 and this is true

00:31:16.360 of both the Biden

00:31:17.240 and Trump administration

00:31:18.820 consider China

00:31:20.560 to be the principal threat

00:31:22.500 to the United States.

00:31:23.800 China is a peer competitor.

00:31:25.360 Russia is not a peer competitor.

00:31:27.500 Russia is not a threat

00:31:28.880 to dominate Europe.

00:31:30.060 Russia is not 0.99

00:31:30.720 the Soviet Union.

00:31:32.320 China is a peer competitor.

00:31:34.300 It's a threat

00:31:34.720 to dominate Asia.

00:31:36.200 And what we've been

00:31:36.940 trying to do

00:31:37.820 since 2011

00:31:39.080 when Hillary Clinton

00:31:40.560 announced it

00:31:41.640 when she was

00:31:42.160 Secretary of State

00:31:43.120 is we've been trying

00:31:44.280 to pivot to Asia.

00:31:45.620 But what's happened here

00:31:48.200 is we've got

00:31:48.940 bogged down in Ukraine

00:31:50.480 and now we're bogged down

00:31:52.140 in the Middle East

00:31:53.260 and this makes it difficult

00:31:55.080 to fully pivot to Asia.

00:31:57.160 And this is not

00:31:58.620 in the American

00:31:59.380 national interest.

00:32:00.640 But to make matters

00:32:01.820 even worse,

00:32:03.140 what we have done

00:32:04.120 is we have driven

00:32:05.380 the Russians

00:32:06.060 into the arms

00:32:07.320 of the Chinese.

00:32:08.640 Yes.

00:32:09.080 If you think about it,

00:32:09.860 we live in a world

00:32:10.640 where there are

00:32:11.040 three great powers.

00:32:12.500 United States,

00:32:13.400 China,

00:32:13.780 and Russia.

00:32:14.320 If the United States

00:32:15.760 views China

00:32:16.480 as its principal competitor

00:32:18.140 and the United States

00:32:19.280 is interested

00:32:19.860 in containing China

00:32:21.240 in East Asia,

00:32:22.400 it would make

00:32:23.120 eminently good sense

00:32:24.240 to have Russia 0.91

00:32:25.040 on its side

00:32:25.960 of the equation.

00:32:27.300 Instead,

00:32:27.760 what we've done

00:32:28.320 with the Ukraine war

00:32:29.400 is we've driven

00:32:30.180 the Russians

00:32:30.660 and the Chinese 0.83

00:32:33.060 closer together.

00:32:34.180 So that's so obvious

00:32:35.400 even to me,

00:32:36.580 a non-specialist,

00:32:37.840 just like,

00:32:38.660 it's obvious,

00:32:39.100 just look at a map,

00:32:40.580 that it had to have

00:32:41.740 been obvious

00:32:42.380 to the previous administration,

00:32:43.860 but they did it anyway,

00:32:44.900 so you have to kind of

00:32:45.640 wonder,

00:32:46.020 did they want that?

00:32:49.620 I think

00:32:50.600 you're

00:32:51.780 underestimating

00:32:53.120 how much

00:32:54.380 strategic

00:32:55.000 sense

00:32:55.920 the American

00:32:57.140 foreign policy

00:32:57.880 establishment has.

00:32:59.140 So they're just 0.98

00:32:59.640 so incompetent 0.98

00:33:00.860 they didn't see 0.84

00:33:01.440 that coming?

00:33:02.280 Yes.

00:33:03.380 I mean,

00:33:03.800 I'll take it

00:33:04.220 a step further.

00:33:05.100 Come on.

00:33:06.320 Let's talk about China.

00:33:08.140 This is an even

00:33:09.240 bigger issue.

00:33:10.120 The Cold War

00:33:12.340 ends,

00:33:13.200 and as you well

00:33:13.840 remember,

00:33:14.320 at the end

00:33:14.840 of the Cold War,

00:33:16.280 China and the 0.91

00:33:16.860 United States

00:33:17.520 were basically

00:33:18.240 allied together

00:33:19.620 against the

00:33:20.800 Soviet Union.

00:33:21.540 Of course,

00:33:21.760 that was the

00:33:22.080 whole point.

00:33:22.820 Yeah.

00:33:22.980 Right.

00:33:23.580 So the

00:33:23.900 Cold War

00:33:26.280 ends,

00:33:26.660 Soviet Union

00:33:27.220 disappears,

00:33:28.660 and there's

00:33:29.580 no longer

00:33:30.120 any need

00:33:30.960 for us

00:33:31.240 to have

00:33:31.620 a close

00:33:32.100 relationship

00:33:32.780 with China.

00:33:34.000 We don't

00:33:34.340 need them

00:33:34.820 to help

00:33:35.340 contain

00:33:35.940 the Soviet

00:33:36.620 Union.

00:33:37.000 So the

00:33:37.840 question is,

00:33:38.320 what do

00:33:38.520 we do

00:33:38.860 with the

00:33:39.300 Chinese

00:33:39.700 moving

00:33:40.320 forward?

00:33:41.420 And

00:33:41.640 economically,

00:33:42.820 China is 0.85

00:33:43.340 a backwards 0.97

00:33:43.860 country in

00:33:45.180 the early

00:33:45.520 1990s.

00:33:47.220 What we

00:33:47.900 do is we

00:33:49.080 adopt a

00:33:50.220 policy of

00:33:51.060 engagement

00:33:51.660 with China.

00:33:53.340 Engagement

00:33:53.840 is explicitly

00:33:55.160 designed to

00:33:56.940 turn China 0.97

00:33:57.860 into a

00:33:59.020 very wealthy

00:34:00.300 country.

00:34:01.700 This is a

00:34:02.240 country that

00:34:02.740 has over

00:34:03.540 four times

00:34:04.200 the population

00:34:05.000 of the

00:34:05.540 United States.

00:34:07.000 And you're

00:34:07.480 talking about

00:34:08.240 making it

00:34:09.080 very rich.

00:34:10.740 For a

00:34:11.420 realist like

00:34:12.020 me, this

00:34:12.980 is lunacy. 0.98

00:34:14.380 You are

00:34:14.920 in effect

00:34:15.500 creating a

00:34:16.480 peer

00:34:16.660 competitor.

00:34:17.600 In fact,

00:34:17.940 you may be

00:34:18.500 creating a

00:34:19.140 country that

00:34:19.760 is more

00:34:20.180 powerful than

00:34:21.120 the United

00:34:21.540 States.

00:34:22.520 But the

00:34:23.280 foreign policy

00:34:24.020 establishment

00:34:24.740 in the

00:34:25.320 United States,

00:34:26.300 almost to a

00:34:27.360 person,

00:34:28.160 including hawks

00:34:29.360 like Zbigniew

00:34:30.080 Brzezinski

00:34:30.640 and Henry

00:34:31.780 Kissinger,

00:34:32.800 said that

00:34:34.400 China can 0.98

00:34:35.340 grow

00:34:35.720 economically,

00:34:37.000 we can

00:34:37.940 integrate it

00:34:38.860 into

00:34:39.320 institutions

00:34:40.340 like the

00:34:41.020 World Trade

00:34:41.500 Organization

00:34:42.200 and so

00:34:42.660 forth and

00:34:43.100 so on,

00:34:43.920 and it

00:34:44.780 will become

00:34:45.320 a democracy

00:34:46.120 and we

00:34:47.120 will all

00:34:47.580 live happily

00:34:48.540 ever after.

00:34:50.300 Right?

00:34:50.920 So what we

00:34:51.820 did is that

00:34:53.120 we helped

00:34:54.780 fuel China's 0.97

00:34:56.860 phenomenal

00:34:57.660 growth

00:34:58.420 between

00:34:59.580 1990

00:35:00.580 and

00:35:01.300 2017

00:35:02.420 when it

00:35:03.420 became a

00:35:03.880 great power.

00:35:04.480 you want

00:35:05.440 to remember

00:35:05.900 that when

00:35:06.560 the Cold

00:35:06.900 War ends 0.75

00:35:07.420 and then

00:35:07.700 the Soviet

00:35:08.120 Union

00:35:08.800 collapses

00:35:09.380 in December

00:35:10.100 of 1991,

00:35:10.980 we enter

00:35:12.100 the unipolar

00:35:12.780 moment,

00:35:13.340 which by

00:35:13.940 definition means

00:35:14.880 there's one

00:35:15.540 great power

00:35:16.180 on the

00:35:16.540 planet.

00:35:17.080 Yeah.

00:35:17.280 That's the

00:35:17.680 United States

00:35:18.340 of America.

00:35:19.120 By 2017,

00:35:21.360 there are three

00:35:21.760 great powers

00:35:22.400 on the planet

00:35:23.120 and one of

00:35:24.660 those three

00:35:25.100 great powers

00:35:25.820 is a peer

00:35:26.460 competitor

00:35:26.940 and we

00:35:27.900 helped

00:35:28.200 create that

00:35:28.920 peer

00:35:29.160 competitor

00:35:29.700 on the 1.00

00:35:30.900 foolish 0.95

00:35:31.280 belief 1.00

00:35:31.940 that

00:35:32.640 if we

00:35:33.820 turned

00:35:34.660 China

00:35:35.080 into a

00:35:35.660 rich

00:35:35.860 country,

00:35:36.280 it would

00:35:36.640 become a

00:35:37.060 liberal

00:35:37.280 democracy

00:35:37.920 and it

00:35:38.640 would

00:35:38.740 become a

00:35:39.140 friend of

00:35:39.480 the United

00:35:39.820 States

00:35:40.340 and it

00:35:40.820 would allow

00:35:41.540 us to

00:35:42.160 run

00:35:42.580 international

00:35:43.340 politics

00:35:44.020 the way

00:35:44.560 we did

00:35:45.020 during

00:35:45.440 unipolarity.

00:35:46.720 This is a

00:35:47.780 remarkably

00:35:48.660 catastrophic

00:35:49.860 decision.

00:35:51.920 It must be

00:35:52.280 strange for

00:35:52.760 you having

00:35:53.020 spent your

00:35:53.420 life in

00:35:53.940 this one

00:35:54.500 field,

00:35:56.120 both in

00:35:56.720 the military

00:35:57.200 effectively and

00:35:58.140 then in

00:35:59.180 academia

00:35:59.640 and you've

00:36:00.300 had tenure

00:36:00.680 at Chicago

00:36:01.260 since 82?

00:36:02.840 Is that right?

00:36:03.200 I went to

00:36:03.660 Chicago in

00:36:04.220 82.

00:36:04.780 I got

00:36:05.020 tenure in

00:36:05.540 1987.

00:36:07.360 So you've

00:36:08.000 been there

00:36:08.280 over 40

00:36:08.880 years working

00:36:09.520 on this

00:36:10.200 suite of

00:36:11.040 topics,

00:36:11.480 this group

00:36:12.780 of topics.

00:36:13.440 When you

00:36:14.020 look around

00:36:14.540 and everybody,

00:36:15.920 even the

00:36:16.220 most famous

00:36:16.740 people in

00:36:17.280 your field

00:36:17.860 are buying

00:36:18.560 into something 1.00

00:36:19.140 that stupid, 1.00

00:36:21.100 how does 1.00

00:36:21.540 that make

00:36:21.940 you feel?

00:36:24.420 Brzezinski

00:36:24.860 and Kissinger

00:36:25.460 are saying

00:36:25.860 things that

00:36:26.220 are just

00:36:26.480 obviously 1.00

00:36:27.100 dumb. 1.00

00:36:28.100 That must 1.00

00:36:28.640 be weird.

00:36:30.160 It's very

00:36:30.640 weird.

00:36:31.020 I remember

00:36:31.340 I debated

00:36:31.960 Zbig in 0.99

00:36:33.220 the early

00:36:33.560 2000s at

00:36:34.700 Carnegie in

00:36:35.460 Washington,

00:36:36.080 D.C.

00:36:37.080 on whether

00:36:37.740 China could

00:36:38.340 rise peacefully.

00:36:39.860 And there's

00:36:40.180 actually a big

00:36:40.920 story in

00:36:41.800 Foreign Policy,

00:36:42.600 the magazine,

00:36:43.420 that has an

00:36:44.760 abbreviated

00:36:45.460 transcript of

00:36:46.380 our debate.

00:36:48.220 And I

00:36:49.380 remember Zbig was

00:36:50.840 arguing that

00:36:51.520 China can rise

00:36:52.280 peacefully and

00:36:53.520 I was arguing

00:36:54.340 that China could 0.50

00:36:55.040 not rise

00:36:55.540 peacefully and

00:36:56.200 that our

00:36:56.460 policy of

00:36:57.080 engagement was 1.00

00:36:57.820 foolish. 1.00

00:36:58.980 And as he 1.00

00:36:59.460 was speaking

00:37:00.000 and I was

00:37:00.540 sitting on

00:37:01.060 the dais,

00:37:01.800 I was saying

00:37:02.320 to myself,

00:37:03.160 I don't get

00:37:03.960 what's going

00:37:04.500 on here.

00:37:05.560 Zbigniew Brzezinski,

00:37:06.640 who's about

00:37:07.040 10 notches to

00:37:07.980 the right of

00:37:08.600 me on almost

00:37:09.820 all foreign

00:37:10.380 policy issues,

00:37:11.660 shouldn't be

00:37:12.420 making this

00:37:13.240 argument.

00:37:13.660 But he's

00:37:14.340 making this

00:37:15.040 argument.

00:37:15.800 And I'm the

00:37:17.260 one who looks

00:37:17.980 like a super

00:37:18.600 hawk.

00:37:20.600 When at the

00:37:21.840 end of the

00:37:22.180 Cold War,

00:37:22.800 I was more

00:37:23.480 on the

00:37:24.420 Dovish side

00:37:25.120 arguing the

00:37:25.740 Soviets were 1.00

00:37:26.240 not 10

00:37:26.820 feet tall.

00:37:27.720 And of

00:37:28.060 course,

00:37:28.360 Big was

00:37:28.760 always arguing

00:37:29.640 the Soviets

00:37:30.240 were 10

00:37:30.760 feet tall.

00:37:31.580 So it was

00:37:32.160 really perplexing.

00:37:33.920 And throughout

00:37:34.620 the 90s and

00:37:35.600 throughout the

00:37:36.860 early 2000s,

00:37:37.800 when I argued

00:37:38.380 China could

00:37:38.960 not rise

00:37:39.560 peacefully,

00:37:40.640 I could not

00:37:41.460 get a hearing

00:37:41.940 in the United

00:37:42.500 States.

00:37:43.000 People just

00:37:43.500 didn't take

00:37:44.020 me seriously.

00:37:45.080 They'd say

00:37:45.460 John's a very

00:37:46.060 smart guy,

00:37:47.000 he's very

00:37:47.440 entertaining,

00:37:48.300 he's amusing,

00:37:48.920 but he's 0.98

00:37:49.560 basically crazy 0.94

00:37:50.340 when it comes

00:37:50.920 to China.

00:37:51.740 That was the

00:37:52.220 view.

00:37:52.840 Now, of

00:37:53.280 course, I

00:37:53.640 think everybody

00:37:54.260 understands that

00:37:55.340 I was basically

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00:41:02.580 It's just, but there

00:41:03.660 hasn't, I mean, if

00:41:05.200 you had a field, just

00:41:06.180 pick some other

00:41:06.780 field, structural

00:41:08.120 engineering.

00:41:09.120 And if you had

00:41:10.080 America's sort of

00:41:11.360 corpus of structural

00:41:12.140 engineers, you know,

00:41:12.920 they also know each

00:41:13.560 other, the eminent

00:41:14.200 ones are friends, and

00:41:16.440 all the bridges they

00:41:17.440 built started to fall

00:41:19.040 down.

00:41:20.260 There would be an

00:41:21.080 immediate reorganization

00:41:22.280 of the field.

00:41:23.480 You would say, this

00:41:24.040 just, you know, you

00:41:25.300 don't know what you're

00:41:25.840 doing.

00:41:26.180 Look, look at the

00:41:26.720 results.

00:41:27.680 I don't understand

00:41:28.420 how you could have

00:41:29.500 this many decades of

00:41:31.220 back-to-back foreign 0.80

00:41:32.000 policy disasters and

00:41:33.160 not have a wholesale

00:41:34.660 reorganization of, like,

00:41:36.440 the brain trust.

00:41:38.420 I agree.

00:41:39.420 Let me just tell you

00:41:40.100 one other story.

00:41:43.560 Let's go back to the

00:41:44.660 1990s, talk about

00:41:46.080 NATO expansion.

00:41:47.320 As I said to you, the

00:41:48.040 Clinton administration

00:41:48.720 made the decision in

00:41:50.060 94.

00:41:51.380 One might think that

00:41:53.120 there was overwhelming

00:41:54.420 support for NATO

00:41:56.420 expansion in the foreign

00:41:57.820 policy establishment.

00:41:58.820 There actually was not.

00:42:01.820 Bill Perry, who was

00:42:03.400 Clinton's secretary

00:42:04.500 of defense, was

00:42:05.880 adamantly opposed to

00:42:07.400 any NATO expansion and

00:42:08.980 thought about resigning as

00:42:10.340 secretary of defense over

00:42:11.900 the issue.

00:42:12.800 The chairman of the

00:42:13.520 Joint Chiefs was

00:42:14.500 opposed.

00:42:15.700 Gene Kirkpatrick,

00:42:17.120 Paul Nitsa,

00:42:18.400 George Kennan.

00:42:19.480 There's a laundry list of

00:42:21.040 prominent people who were

00:42:23.200 opposed to NATO

00:42:24.280 expansion.

00:42:25.960 Anyway, the decision is

00:42:27.140 made in 94, the first

00:42:28.560 tranches in 1999, and

00:42:31.080 then the opposition

00:42:31.920 disappears.

00:42:33.360 There's no more

00:42:33.960 opposition.

00:42:35.060 Disappears.

00:42:35.680 Disappears.

00:42:36.560 And as this situation

00:42:38.360 regarding NATO expansion

00:42:39.860 deteriorates over time,

00:42:41.720 especially once the

00:42:42.820 decision is made to

00:42:43.820 bring Ukraine into 0.99

00:42:45.220 NATO, you would think

00:42:46.920 that we would begin to

00:42:48.420 do an about-face, that

00:42:49.680 more and more people

00:42:50.580 would begin to appear

00:42:52.060 who make the argument

00:42:53.800 that NATO expansion into

00:42:55.100 Ukraine is a bad idea. 1.00

00:42:56.620 Again, in the 1990s,

00:42:58.040 people were making that

00:42:59.160 argument.

00:43:00.080 But that doesn't happen

00:43:01.200 at all.

00:43:02.080 And I become, in many

00:43:04.360 ways, the principal

00:43:06.280 person who argues that

00:43:07.880 we're responsible for the

00:43:09.220 2014 crisis.

00:43:11.000 I wrote a piece in

00:43:11.920 Foreign Affairs after the

00:43:13.560 crisis broke out in

00:43:14.840 February of 2014.

00:43:16.920 But there are

00:43:17.660 remarkably few people

00:43:19.300 who are questioning

00:43:20.840 whether further

00:43:21.780 pushing down the road

00:43:24.740 to bring Ukraine into 0.59

00:43:26.180 NATO makes sense, 0.99

00:43:28.020 right?

00:43:28.440 No, they're doubling

00:43:28.980 down.

00:43:29.540 They're doubling down.

00:43:30.060 And then you're getting

00:43:30.760 people at the Atlantic

00:43:31.660 Council say, you know,

00:43:32.480 well, I guess we have to

00:43:33.260 use nukes now.

00:43:34.680 I mean, you see people

00:43:35.480 get, not just refuse to

00:43:38.360 reflect or repent, but

00:43:40.700 become, like, actively 0.57

00:43:42.180 crazy, just crazy.

00:43:44.100 Like, no, tactical nukes,

00:43:45.360 I mean, you know, we're

00:43:46.520 not going to win without

00:43:47.060 them.

00:43:47.480 People are saying that,

00:43:48.240 as you know, what is

00:43:50.080 that?

00:43:51.940 Well, it will be a

00:43:54.500 devastating blow for us

00:43:56.300 to lose the war in

00:43:58.300 Ukraine.

00:43:59.400 And when foreign policy

00:44:01.540 elites get desperate,

00:44:03.220 they do reckless things

00:44:05.600 or they talk in

00:44:06.600 reckless ways.

00:44:07.600 Right.

00:44:08.140 Right.

00:44:08.720 This is why, by the way,

00:44:10.060 the Ukraine war, even

00:44:12.420 once it's settled and

00:44:13.620 becomes a frozen

00:44:14.820 conflict, will be so

00:44:16.060 dangerous, right?

00:44:17.560 Because the fact that it

00:44:20.300 is a defeat for the West

00:44:21.920 and that we have been

00:44:23.500 humiliated and that we

00:44:25.700 lost this major war that

00:44:28.840 we were so deeply

00:44:29.780 committed to will give

00:44:30.940 people incentives to try

00:44:32.500 to reverse the tide to

00:44:34.800 rescue the situation.

00:44:36.700 And when people are

00:44:38.360 desperate, they sometimes

00:44:40.000 pursue very risky

00:44:41.200 strategies.

00:44:41.780 So once this war

00:44:43.360 becomes a frozen

00:44:44.200 conflict, we're going

00:44:45.440 to have to worry

00:44:46.280 about it

00:44:47.080 re-escalating.

00:44:49.340 It seems very

00:44:50.420 easy for,

00:44:51.760 you know,

00:44:54.180 a reckless government

00:44:54.960 in Kiev

00:44:55.740 to provoke

00:44:58.040 Moscow,

00:44:59.520 basically.

00:45:00.680 I mean,

00:45:00.940 you've seen it,

00:45:01.820 you know,

00:45:02.100 sending drone swarms

00:45:03.580 onto air bases

00:45:04.440 or in, you know,

00:45:05.380 setting the Kremlin

00:45:06.080 on fire,

00:45:06.680 which they did

00:45:07.360 and got no publicity,

00:45:08.720 but they have done

00:45:09.620 that.

00:45:10.500 It's just,

00:45:11.300 it's this weird

00:45:12.620 asymmetrical arrangement

00:45:15.060 where they,

00:45:15.960 Ukraine actually has

00:45:16.940 quite a bit of power

00:45:17.820 to stoke a global

00:45:19.240 conflict and incentive

00:45:20.920 to do it,

00:45:21.880 don't they?

00:45:23.180 That's exactly right.

00:45:24.500 What they want to do

00:45:25.420 is they want to see

00:45:26.500 the war escalate

00:45:27.640 because they want

00:45:28.500 to bring us in.

00:45:29.680 If the Ukrainians 0.99

00:45:31.140 have any hope

00:45:32.300 of rescuing

00:45:33.060 the situation,

00:45:33.920 it's to bring NATO

00:45:35.520 into the fight.

00:45:36.740 Exactly.

00:45:37.160 actually doing

00:45:37.980 the fighting.

00:45:40.220 We've seen this

00:45:40.960 in other regions.

00:45:41.800 It's a bad idea

00:45:43.000 to allow other countries

00:45:45.000 an incentive 0.99

00:45:46.320 to suck in 1.00

00:45:47.000 the United States 1.00

00:45:47.600 because they will.

00:45:49.400 Yeah.

00:45:49.660 Well, I mean,

00:45:50.060 you see this

00:45:50.560 with the Israelis

00:45:51.280 and Iran, right?

00:45:52.520 In 2024,

00:45:54.060 the Israelis

00:45:54.720 tried to bait us

00:45:56.620 into the war,

00:45:58.780 into a war

00:45:59.800 against Iran 0.78

00:46:00.760 on two separate occasions.

00:46:02.720 And the Biden

00:46:03.340 administration,

00:46:04.260 much to its credit,

00:46:05.380 did not

00:46:05.920 take the bait.

00:46:07.800 But Donald Trump

00:46:09.180 did take the bait,

00:46:10.460 right?

00:46:10.760 The Israelis 0.92

00:46:11.320 have long

00:46:12.260 had a deep-seated

00:46:13.180 interest

00:46:13.700 in getting us

00:46:14.760 involved

00:46:16.220 against Iran 0.78

00:46:17.260 because they understand

00:46:18.140 they can't defeat

00:46:19.040 Iran by themselves 0.97

00:46:20.020 and they can do it,

00:46:21.960 they think,

00:46:23.600 with us.

00:46:24.780 So this is

00:46:25.780 analogous

00:46:26.540 to the situation

00:46:27.420 with regard

00:46:28.080 to Ukraine.

00:46:28.700 The Ukrainians,

00:46:29.420 as you said,

00:46:29.960 have a deep-seated

00:46:30.740 interest

00:46:31.160 in getting us

00:46:31.860 into the fight.

00:46:32.500 So as long

00:46:33.520 as we're tied

00:46:34.220 to Ukraine,

00:46:35.820 if there's

00:46:36.760 an implicit

00:46:37.240 security guarantee,

00:46:39.640 which there kind

00:46:40.080 of is at this point,

00:46:41.000 I mean,

00:46:41.240 there has been,

00:46:43.040 why don't we

00:46:43.900 have an interest

00:46:44.380 in controlling

00:46:45.440 the government

00:46:46.080 of Ukraine?

00:46:46.880 In other words,

00:46:47.680 why do we have

00:46:48.020 Zelensky running

00:46:48.880 Ukraine,

00:46:50.100 this unelected 1.00

00:46:51.040 lunatic 1.00

00:46:51.840 running Ukraine,

00:46:53.480 when we have

00:46:54.300 skin in the game?

00:46:55.060 Why do we allow that?

00:46:57.040 Well,

00:46:57.240 we've been content

00:46:58.160 with Zelensky

00:46:59.060 up to now,

00:47:00.200 and the Europeans

00:47:01.360 love Zelensky.

00:47:03.100 Why?

00:47:04.640 Because he's

00:47:05.420 committed

00:47:05.840 to continuing

00:47:07.340 the war,

00:47:08.520 and he is

00:47:10.280 very good

00:47:10.800 at public relations

00:47:11.840 in the West.

00:47:13.420 He has excellent

00:47:14.540 advisors,

00:47:15.060 he's a former

00:47:15.780 actor,

00:47:16.580 he knows how

00:47:17.100 to play the game,

00:47:18.500 so he's good

00:47:19.720 at dealing

00:47:20.400 with the West,

00:47:21.760 and he does

00:47:23.540 what we want.

00:47:24.660 I mean,

00:47:24.880 it's not like

00:47:25.480 he's doing things

00:47:26.360 that we don't

00:47:27.140 want him to do.

00:47:28.500 No,

00:47:28.640 that's right.

00:47:29.460 He is our man,

00:47:30.980 and once he

00:47:31.740 ceases to be our man,

00:47:32.980 we'll go to great lengths

00:47:33.800 to put somebody else

00:47:34.700 in his place.

00:47:35.740 But both Europe

00:47:36.860 and the United States

00:47:37.800 have become poorer

00:47:38.800 and weaker

00:47:39.560 during the course

00:47:40.540 of the Ukraine war,

00:47:42.320 partly as a result

00:47:43.160 of the Ukraine war.

00:47:44.780 So I don't really see

00:47:45.580 how we're winning.

00:47:46.880 How is the U.S.

00:47:47.840 benefiting from this?

00:47:48.620 How is Western Europe

00:47:49.760 benefiting from this?

00:47:50.980 Well,

00:47:51.160 I think that

00:47:51.740 it's Europe,

00:47:53.620 Western Europe in particular,

00:47:55.000 that's been hurt

00:47:55.840 economically

00:47:56.620 by this war,

00:47:57.740 not so much us,

00:47:58.620 and one could argue

00:47:59.580 that we've

00:48:00.400 benefited on the margins

00:48:02.740 at the expense

00:48:03.840 of the European.

00:48:04.980 Well,

00:48:05.160 the U.S. dollar

00:48:05.940 kind of

00:48:06.480 is,

00:48:08.460 I mean,

00:48:08.780 it's obviously

00:48:09.500 not a safe haven anymore,

00:48:10.460 so,

00:48:11.260 I mean,

00:48:11.560 it's just a matter of time,

00:48:12.560 I would say.

00:48:13.800 Well,

00:48:13.960 the question is

00:48:14.440 how much of that

00:48:15.000 is due to the Ukraine war

00:48:16.260 versus other American policies?

00:48:18.240 I'm sure that there

00:48:19.040 are a million factors,

00:48:20.020 but kicking Russia 0.66

00:48:21.220 out of swift,

00:48:22.060 just stealing

00:48:22.820 the personal property

00:48:23.800 of the so-called

00:48:24.400 oligarchs,

00:48:25.880 behavior,

00:48:26.460 lawless,

00:48:27.020 crazy behavior

00:48:27.640 like that

00:48:28.320 sends a message

00:48:29.720 to the world

00:48:30.320 that like,

00:48:31.000 don't keep your wealth

00:48:32.260 in dollars

00:48:32.700 because it can become

00:48:34.080 an instrument of war.

00:48:35.420 I mean,

00:48:35.540 that's my view

00:48:36.140 on it anyway.

00:48:37.760 Yeah,

00:48:37.980 there's no question

00:48:38.680 about that.

00:48:39.560 Yeah.

00:48:40.420 There's no question

00:48:41.380 about that.

00:48:41.980 But the problem is

00:48:45.580 that we're now

00:48:46.240 so deeply committed

00:48:47.840 that we just can't

00:48:50.280 turn the ship around.

00:48:51.660 Do we have any

00:48:52.240 leverage at all left?

00:48:54.900 I notice the administration

00:48:55.780 is threatening today

00:48:57.000 that in 12 days

00:48:58.100 we're going to do something

00:48:58.960 with sanctions,

00:49:00.740 then secondary sanctions

00:49:01.840 against China and India

00:49:03.300 if they buy Russian oil.

00:49:06.660 I mean,

00:49:06.940 is that any of that

00:49:08.040 meaningful?

00:49:10.120 I don't think secondary,

00:49:11.360 the threat of secondary

00:49:12.580 sanctions is meaningful.

00:49:14.200 I mean,

00:49:14.340 the economic consequences

00:49:15.700 for the world

00:49:17.100 and for the United States

00:49:18.340 would be disastrous

00:49:19.360 if they actually

00:49:20.300 were put into effect

00:49:21.480 and worked.

00:49:22.780 I think the Chinese 0.93

00:49:24.500 and Indians

00:49:25.080 would just blow them off

00:49:26.280 at this point.

00:49:27.300 Yeah.

00:49:27.560 So I don't think

00:49:28.460 that they'll work.

00:49:29.120 We have no cards to play.

00:49:31.160 If we had cards to play,

00:49:32.660 Biden would have played

00:49:33.640 those cards.

00:49:34.640 I mean,

00:49:34.940 one fundamental difference

00:49:36.660 between Biden and Trump

00:49:38.320 is that Biden

00:49:39.440 was fully committed

00:49:40.420 to the war.

00:49:41.360 And wanted to do

00:49:42.360 everything he could

00:49:43.660 to make sure

00:49:44.760 the United States

00:49:45.680 stayed in the game

00:49:46.940 and continued

00:49:49.140 to support Ukraine

00:49:51.340 no matter what.

00:49:52.640 Trump definitely

00:49:53.920 wanted to end the war.

00:49:55.700 He's been unsuccessful.

00:49:57.140 He really doesn't know

00:49:58.000 what he's doing.

00:49:58.760 He doesn't know

00:49:59.240 how to end the war,

00:50:00.200 but he does want

00:50:01.440 to end it.

00:50:03.000 And the question

00:50:03.980 you really have

00:50:04.880 to ask yourself

00:50:05.800 is what is he going

00:50:06.580 to put into the pipeline,

00:50:07.860 the Biden pipeline,

00:50:09.040 once the weaponry

00:50:10.100 dries up.

00:50:12.400 And I don't think

00:50:14.160 that Trump

00:50:14.680 is going to end up

00:50:15.960 giving the Ukrainians

00:50:17.260 a lot more weaponry.

00:50:19.100 So I think

00:50:20.160 he's going to basically

00:50:21.280 allow the Ukrainians 0.99

00:50:23.020 to be defeated

00:50:23.880 on the battlefield.

00:50:25.400 This is going to be

00:50:26.200 a huge problem

00:50:27.040 for Trump

00:50:27.620 because he's going

00:50:28.280 to be blamed

00:50:28.940 for losing Ukraine.

00:50:31.480 The problem

00:50:32.340 that Trump

00:50:33.140 runs into

00:50:34.460 is the same problem

00:50:35.720 that Biden

00:50:36.480 ran into

00:50:37.180 with Afghanistan.

00:50:37.940 Remember,

00:50:38.860 Trump was the one

00:50:39.660 who wisely decided

00:50:41.220 we're getting

00:50:41.700 out of Afghanistan.

00:50:43.120 Yes.

00:50:43.560 He was smart

00:50:44.160 to do that,

00:50:44.980 but it was Biden

00:50:46.660 who actually

00:50:47.360 took us out

00:50:48.340 of Afghanistan

00:50:49.740 and that was

00:50:51.000 a disaster

00:50:51.680 and he got

00:50:53.420 all sorts

00:50:54.320 of mud

00:50:55.480 spilled on him

00:50:56.740 for taking us

00:50:58.420 out of Afghanistan.

00:51:00.800 Well,

00:51:01.520 what's going to happen

00:51:02.540 in Ukraine

00:51:03.360 at some point

00:51:04.300 is the Russians

00:51:05.060 are going to win

00:51:05.780 and Trump

00:51:06.440 is going to get

00:51:06.940 blamed for that.

00:51:08.020 And I think

00:51:08.620 one of the reasons

00:51:09.360 that Trump

00:51:10.020 is so hesitant

00:51:11.040 on Ukraine

00:51:12.680 is not simply

00:51:13.700 because he's

00:51:14.320 surrounded by advisors

00:51:15.660 who are super hawks

00:51:16.880 on Ukraine 0.86

00:51:17.560 and want to hang

00:51:18.700 on to the bitter end.

00:51:20.020 It's also because

00:51:20.760 Trump understands

00:51:21.860 that when Ukraine

00:51:23.260 loses,

00:51:25.260 it will be seen

00:51:26.600 as having happened

00:51:27.660 on his watch.

00:51:28.500 No question.

00:51:29.280 Yeah, no question.

00:51:30.220 He doesn't want

00:51:31.300 that to happen.

00:51:32.440 This is why Trump

00:51:33.300 was deeply committed

00:51:34.360 to negotiating

00:51:35.460 a settlement.

00:51:36.120 Why couldn't

00:51:37.540 that work?

00:51:39.080 It didn't work

00:51:39.900 because Trump

00:51:41.080 would have to accept

00:51:43.440 Russia's three key demands 0.87

00:51:45.440 that I spelled out

00:51:46.500 to you

00:51:46.880 at the start

00:51:47.500 of the show.

00:51:48.240 And those three key demands

00:51:50.440 are unacceptable

00:51:51.500 to almost every person

00:51:53.420 in the American

00:51:54.000 foreign policy establishment

00:51:55.440 and almost every

00:51:57.160 foreign policy elite

00:51:58.760 in Europe.

00:52:00.200 Trump is an outlier

00:52:02.100 on the whole issue

00:52:03.560 of Ukraine.

00:52:04.340 He, J.D. Vance,

00:52:06.120 and a handful

00:52:06.560 of other people.

00:52:07.760 And they're not

00:52:09.300 in a position

00:52:10.100 to bite the bullet

00:52:11.340 and say,

00:52:12.700 we will accept

00:52:13.560 the main Russian demands

00:52:15.400 and go from there.

00:52:16.940 And by the way,

00:52:17.760 even if they do accept

00:52:19.120 the main Russian demands,

00:52:21.680 the fact is

00:52:23.340 that there will be

00:52:25.100 huge resistance

00:52:26.400 from the foreign policy

00:52:28.040 establishments

00:52:28.940 on both sides

00:52:29.720 of the Atlantic.

00:52:30.400 So sometimes when people

00:52:31.860 sell products on TV

00:52:33.200 and, I love this product,

00:52:34.600 I use this product,

00:52:35.540 there's the question

00:52:36.220 in the mind of the viewer,

00:52:37.960 does this guy

00:52:38.480 really use the product?

00:52:39.840 Does he really love

00:52:40.780 the product?

00:52:41.260 Would he keep the product

00:52:41.960 at home?

00:52:42.760 Ask my dogs.

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00:52:47.200 I'm going to tell you

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00:52:48.140 because, again,

00:52:49.240 this is prepping,

00:52:50.780 but this is my garage.

00:52:52.760 There's a gun safe.

00:52:53.680 And this is a part

00:52:55.200 of my stockpile

00:52:55.840 of Ready Hour.

00:52:57.180 Completely real!

00:52:58.240 Well, the second

00:52:59.260 I put it here,

00:53:00.080 the second Ready Hour

00:53:01.280 sent it to me,

00:53:02.240 I felt peace of mind

00:53:03.220 because no matter

00:53:04.600 what happens,

00:53:05.800 we're not going hungry

00:53:06.540 in my house.

00:53:07.320 I moved a lot

00:53:08.040 of fishing gear

00:53:08.700 out of the way

00:53:09.500 to keep it in my garage

00:53:10.800 and ever since

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00:53:13.000 I have felt

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00:53:38.760 Well, I can't think

00:53:41.240 of a group

00:53:41.780 I'm less interested

00:53:42.620 in listening to

00:53:43.380 than the foreign 1.00

00:53:43.860 policy establishment.

00:53:45.040 I mean, again,

00:53:45.560 that just seems

00:53:46.140 so totally discredited.

00:53:48.140 It's like dating tips

00:53:49.380 from Jeffrey Epstein.

00:53:50.420 It's like,

00:53:50.960 who cares what they say?

00:53:52.800 But I guess...

00:53:53.860 Well, they still wield

00:53:54.660 enormous power.

00:53:55.720 Yeah, apparently they do.

00:53:56.560 This is the problem

00:53:57.160 that Trump faces.

00:53:58.640 Right?

00:53:59.220 I mean,

00:54:00.060 Trump had this problem

00:54:01.160 in spades

00:54:01.960 the first time

00:54:02.720 he was elected.

00:54:03.820 Trump comes into

00:54:04.640 the White House

00:54:05.420 and he has to pick advisors.

00:54:08.500 But it's not like

00:54:09.640 he has

00:54:10.480 a large number

00:54:11.980 or even a small number

00:54:13.620 of foreign policy experts

00:54:15.280 who share

00:54:16.560 his foreign policy views.

00:54:18.720 Right?

00:54:19.460 Because he has to draw

00:54:20.500 from the establishment.

00:54:22.060 Right.

00:54:22.220 So you want to remember

00:54:23.060 that Trump

00:54:24.160 was very interested

00:54:25.460 in improving relations

00:54:27.740 with Russia

00:54:30.700 and with Putin

00:54:31.600 in particular

00:54:32.300 the first time round.

00:54:33.820 And he failed completely.

00:54:35.720 Where Trump succeeded

00:54:37.160 was on China.

00:54:38.620 Trump abandoned engagement.

00:54:40.280 We talked about engagement

00:54:41.700 being a disastrous policy.

00:54:43.960 Trump abandoned engagement

00:54:45.480 and moved to containment

00:54:47.740 in 2017.

00:54:48.940 He ran

00:54:50.380 as a candidate

00:54:51.300 in 2016

00:54:52.460 explicitly

00:54:53.240 against engagement.

00:54:54.680 Got rid of it immediately.

00:54:55.960 I believe that was

00:54:56.740 a smart thing to do

00:54:57.780 and to pursue containment.

00:54:59.480 He also,

00:55:00.420 Trump,

00:55:00.960 wanted to improve

00:55:02.060 relations

00:55:02.880 with Putin,

00:55:04.040 which I think

00:55:04.640 made eminently good sense.

00:55:06.120 he couldn't do that

00:55:07.320 in part because

00:55:08.080 of Russiagate

00:55:08.840 but also because

00:55:09.840 the foreign policy

00:55:10.660 establishment

00:55:11.280 was so committed

00:55:12.200 to NATO expansion.

00:55:13.580 So he failed

00:55:14.480 on that count.

00:55:15.520 But the problem is

00:55:16.380 he was surrounded

00:55:17.700 by advisors

00:55:18.920 in that first administration

00:55:21.640 who were all

00:55:22.900 very hawkish

00:55:24.260 on Ukraine

00:55:25.300 and very hawkish

00:55:27.320 about American

00:55:27.900 foreign policy

00:55:28.660 in general.

00:55:29.460 Very hawkish

00:55:30.100 about the forever wars.

00:55:32.360 Right?

00:55:32.800 So what's,

00:55:33.460 I don't understand

00:55:34.000 since you raised it,

00:55:35.340 what is the connection?

00:55:36.380 The same people

00:55:37.100 who are telling me

00:55:37.860 we need to fight

00:55:38.720 a regime change war

00:55:40.280 against Iran 0.78

00:55:41.120 are the same ones

00:55:42.980 who are hysterical

00:55:44.680 about supporting

00:55:45.700 Ukraine

00:55:46.740 and continuing

00:55:47.840 our war against Russia.

00:55:49.760 The Mark Levins

00:55:50.700 and then the smarter

00:55:52.140 people

00:55:53.520 but same orientation.

00:55:55.460 What do they have

00:55:57.340 in common?

00:55:57.900 I don't really understand.

00:55:59.640 Well,

00:55:59.840 you have a foreign

00:56:00.480 policy establishment

00:56:01.500 whether you're talking

00:56:02.340 about the Republican side

00:56:03.740 or you're talking

00:56:04.620 about the Democratic side

00:56:06.240 that is deeply committed

00:56:08.620 to pursuing

00:56:09.900 hawkish foreign policy.

00:56:12.280 Just for its own sake?

00:56:13.520 No.

00:56:13.980 No.

00:56:14.200 They believe

00:56:14.820 that that's what's good

00:56:16.180 for the United States.

00:56:17.840 They believe

00:56:18.200 we should spend

00:56:19.120 exceedingly large

00:56:21.200 amounts of money

00:56:22.720 on defense

00:56:23.540 that we should be willing

00:56:24.680 to use military force

00:56:26.900 in a rather liberal fashion.

00:56:29.380 They believe

00:56:30.580 that military force

00:56:31.680 can solve

00:56:32.440 all sorts

00:56:33.180 of problems.

00:56:34.960 They believe

00:56:36.160 that the United States

00:56:37.560 and this was certainly

00:56:38.420 true during

00:56:39.000 the unipolar moment

00:56:40.020 can use that military force

00:56:41.800 to spread liberal democracy

00:56:43.280 around the world.

00:56:44.680 We can spread democracy

00:56:45.740 at the end

00:56:46.380 of a rifle barrel.

00:56:47.800 This is what

00:56:48.460 the Bush doctrine

00:56:49.480 was all about

00:56:50.480 in the Middle East.

00:56:51.800 Iraq was just 1.00

00:56:52.520 the first stop

00:56:53.460 on the train line.

00:56:54.840 Right?

00:56:55.000 We were going to do

00:56:55.600 Iran, Syria

00:56:56.600 and eventually

00:56:57.800 everybody would just

00:56:58.600 throw up their hands.

00:56:59.340 We were going to democratize

00:57:00.620 the entire Middle East

00:57:01.720 and we were going to use

00:57:02.780 military force

00:57:03.780 to do that.

00:57:04.940 So we are

00:57:05.980 in a very important way

00:57:07.980 addicted to war.

00:57:09.340 Now,

00:57:09.840 it's important to emphasize

00:57:11.040 that a lot of this

00:57:11.960 has to do with Israel.

00:57:13.040 Right?

00:57:13.620 Because Israel's supporters 0.97

00:57:15.060 have a deep-seated interest

00:57:16.680 in making sure

00:57:17.700 that the United States

00:57:19.100 has a remarkably

00:57:20.160 powerful military

00:57:21.280 and is willing

00:57:22.740 to use that military

00:57:24.960 in a rather liberal fashion

00:57:27.180 because they believe

00:57:29.320 that if Israel 0.83

00:57:30.580 ever gets into trouble

00:57:32.100 and it needs help

00:57:33.660 from the United States,

00:57:35.080 the ideal situation

00:57:36.620 is to have

00:57:37.500 a U.S. military

00:57:38.340 that's like a cocked gun.

00:57:40.400 And if you think

00:57:41.020 about the recent war

00:57:42.300 between Israel

00:57:43.880 and Iran,

00:57:45.200 it really wasn't

00:57:46.040 just between Israel

00:57:47.240 and Iran.

00:57:48.300 No.

00:57:48.480 It was Israel 0.91

00:57:49.380 and the United States

00:57:50.780 against Iran.

00:57:52.780 Right?

00:57:53.560 Clearly.

00:57:54.340 Clearly.

00:57:55.020 Right?

00:57:55.220 And the United States

00:57:56.420 had a huge number

00:57:57.520 of military assets

00:57:59.000 in the Middle East.

00:58:01.340 Right?

00:58:01.860 That were there

00:58:02.800 in large part

00:58:03.980 to help the Israelis

00:58:05.220 in their war

00:58:06.520 against Iran.

00:58:09.140 Well,

00:58:09.980 if you think about it,

00:58:11.560 it makes perfectly sense

00:58:13.340 if you're a supporter

00:58:14.420 of Israel

00:58:15.160 to want to make sure

00:58:16.480 that the United States

00:58:18.020 has a large military

00:58:20.340 and that it is

00:58:22.480 willing to use

00:58:23.420 that military

00:58:24.460 and that if need be,

00:58:26.160 it can help Israel

00:58:27.260 if it gets into trouble.

00:58:29.480 I didn't hear any reference

00:58:30.420 to American interests

00:58:31.380 in that description.

00:58:34.160 Well,

00:58:34.780 when it comes to Israel,

00:58:36.460 right,

00:58:36.920 and what Israel

00:58:37.960 needs,

00:58:39.160 right,

00:58:39.520 that has little to do

00:58:40.760 with American interests.

00:58:42.480 Right?

00:58:43.200 The truth is

00:58:44.320 any two countries

00:58:46.480 in the world

00:58:47.900 are going to have

00:58:49.760 similar interests

00:58:51.580 plus different interests.

00:58:53.300 Yes.

00:58:53.540 Right.

00:58:53.880 So there's no question

00:58:54.820 that Israel

00:58:56.040 and the United States

00:58:57.140 have sometimes

00:58:58.100 have similar interests

00:58:59.120 and sometimes

00:58:59.820 have different interests.

00:59:00.780 Let me give you

00:59:01.200 an example of this.

00:59:02.240 The United States

00:59:02.900 has a vested interest

00:59:04.020 in making sure

00:59:05.000 Iran does not 1.00

00:59:05.900 have nuclear weapons.

00:59:07.100 Yes.

00:59:07.340 We're against proliferation.

00:59:08.520 It's in the American

00:59:09.380 national interest.

00:59:10.220 It's obviously

00:59:11.340 in Israel's

00:59:12.500 national interest

00:59:13.440 for Iran

00:59:14.140 not to have nuclear weapons.

00:59:16.380 Right?

00:59:16.980 So two states

00:59:18.680 can have similar interests.

00:59:20.520 In the case of Israel 0.85

00:59:21.700 and the United States,

00:59:23.080 they also happen

00:59:24.180 to have different interests.

00:59:26.560 And what we have

00:59:28.640 in the United States

00:59:29.740 is a situation

00:59:30.740 where we have this thing

00:59:32.000 called the Israel Lobby,

00:59:33.220 which I, of course,

00:59:33.800 have written about

00:59:34.420 with Steve Wald,

00:59:35.340 which goes to great lengths

00:59:37.400 to push the United States

00:59:39.820 to support Israel

00:59:41.600 unconditionally.

00:59:43.140 In other words,

00:59:43.800 no matter what Israel does, 0.79

00:59:45.700 we are supposed

00:59:47.600 to support Israel.

00:59:49.220 And the lobby

00:59:50.040 is so effective.

00:59:51.380 It is so powerful.

00:59:52.820 It is so effective

00:59:53.800 that we basically

00:59:54.940 end up supporting

00:59:56.340 Israel unconditionally.

00:59:58.320 What that means,

00:59:59.220 Tucker,

00:59:59.560 is in those cases

01:00:00.900 where Israel's interests

01:00:02.300 are not the same

01:00:03.700 as America's interests,

01:00:05.640 we support Israel.

01:00:07.560 We support Israel's interests,

01:00:09.680 not America's interests,

01:00:11.580 because...

01:00:12.120 Over and against

01:00:12.880 America's interests.

01:00:14.100 Of course.

01:00:15.080 Because the interests clash

01:00:16.500 in those specific instances.

01:00:18.100 Right.

01:00:18.880 Which is,

01:00:19.480 as you noted at the outset,

01:00:21.460 just the nature of

01:00:22.800 sovereign countries

01:00:23.760 doing business

01:00:24.260 with each other.

01:00:24.860 You're going to agree

01:00:25.360 on some things

01:00:25.900 and disagree on others.

01:00:26.860 Absolutely.

01:00:27.800 But can you think

01:00:29.280 of any moment

01:00:30.980 in the last,

01:00:31.900 say, 40 years

01:00:32.580 where there was

01:00:34.000 that clash

01:00:34.700 between

01:00:35.780 non-converging interests

01:00:38.060 where the United States

01:00:39.300 chose its own interests

01:00:40.320 over Israel's interests?

01:00:44.220 No.

01:00:45.720 No, I can't think

01:00:47.400 of anything

01:00:48.560 that fits

01:00:49.520 that description.

01:00:50.220 I mean,

01:00:50.920 one could argue

01:00:51.820 that Israel

01:00:52.980 wanted us

01:00:53.740 to fight

01:00:54.860 against Iran 0.78

01:00:55.720 in 2024,

01:00:56.940 that they tried

01:00:57.860 to bait us

01:00:59.180 into attacking Iran 0.99

01:01:00.720 in April

01:01:02.420 and then in July.

01:01:04.780 And as I said before,

01:01:06.060 the Biden administration

01:01:07.180 did not take the bait.

01:01:09.720 Can you think

01:01:10.300 conversely

01:01:11.260 of instances

01:01:12.260 where

01:01:12.820 the U.S. government

01:01:14.480 chose 0.56

01:01:15.160 the interests

01:01:15.920 of a foreign power 0.81

01:01:16.620 over and against

01:01:17.580 its own interests

01:01:18.300 and its people's interests?

01:01:20.360 Besides the Israeli case?

01:01:22.220 No, no.

01:01:22.600 In the case of Israel.

01:01:25.600 You know,

01:01:26.080 we're allied

01:01:26.720 with Israel

01:01:27.320 informally

01:01:28.460 and,

01:01:29.180 you know,

01:01:30.040 they want us

01:01:30.700 to do something

01:01:31.500 that is

01:01:32.340 hurtful to us,

01:01:33.840 does not help

01:01:34.320 our interests at all,

01:01:35.160 but we do it anyway.

01:01:36.620 Can you think

01:01:37.120 of examples of that?

01:01:38.420 Two-state solution

01:01:39.280 is the best example.

01:01:41.320 Every American president

01:01:42.820 since

01:01:43.780 at least Jimmy Carter

01:01:45.620 has pushed

01:01:46.740 forcefully

01:01:47.600 for creating

01:01:48.400 a Palestinian state.

01:01:50.280 We have long believed

01:01:51.660 that the best solution

01:01:53.320 to the Palestinian problem,

01:01:55.300 which is the taproot

01:01:56.400 of so many

01:01:57.180 other problems

01:01:58.220 that we face

01:01:59.060 in the Middle East

01:01:59.900 is to create

01:02:01.080 two states.

01:02:02.520 So every president

01:02:03.920 has pushed hard

01:02:05.100 except for maybe

01:02:05.860 Donald Trump

01:02:06.720 for a two-state solution

01:02:08.360 in the Middle East.

01:02:10.260 The Israelis 0.92

01:02:11.200 have rebuffed us

01:02:12.720 at every turn

01:02:14.240 and the end result

01:02:16.200 is we now

01:02:17.320 have a greater Israel

01:02:18.340 and there's no possibility

01:02:19.600 of a two-state solution.

01:02:20.960 How does it hurt

01:02:21.460 the United States

01:02:22.180 not having

01:02:22.820 a Palestinian state?

01:02:24.000 Why is it in our interest?

01:02:25.380 Why is every president

01:02:26.160 pushed for that?

01:02:26.840 Because the United States

01:02:27.960 has a vested interest

01:02:29.140 in having peace

01:02:30.220 in the Middle East.

01:02:33.420 It's not in our interest

01:02:34.720 to have wars

01:02:35.540 in that region.

01:02:37.580 First of all,

01:02:38.380 it forces us

01:02:39.160 to commit military forces.

01:02:40.600 It forces us

01:02:41.520 to fight wars

01:02:42.620 and that's not

01:02:44.580 in our interest.

01:02:45.940 And we have long felt

01:02:48.040 from a strategic point of view

01:02:49.740 that what you want to do

01:02:50.780 is make sure

01:02:51.800 you have peace

01:02:54.080 in that region.

01:02:55.060 You want to remember

01:02:56.020 right before October 7th,

01:02:57.900 Jake Sullivan,

01:02:58.660 who was then

01:02:59.020 the National Security Advisor,

01:03:00.800 was crowing

01:03:01.680 about the fact

01:03:02.640 that we had not seen

01:03:04.120 the Middle East

01:03:06.100 so peaceful

01:03:06.820 in a long period of time.

01:03:08.960 Yeah.

01:03:09.180 He understood full well

01:03:10.320 that this is in our interest.

01:03:12.080 Well, if you compare

01:03:12.840 the world,

01:03:13.900 you know,

01:03:15.380 on October 6th,

01:03:17.940 2023,

01:03:19.440 with the world

01:03:20.360 that exists

01:03:21.720 in the Middle East today,

01:03:22.900 we are much worse off today.

01:03:25.840 This is not

01:03:27.020 in our interest.

01:03:28.680 And this is in large part

01:03:30.160 because of Israel.

01:03:31.960 And this is just

01:03:32.980 a strategic dimension.

01:03:34.200 We're not even talking

01:03:34.960 about the moral dimension.

01:03:36.620 I mean,

01:03:36.800 the Israelis

01:03:37.300 are executing 0.94

01:03:39.240 a genocide

01:03:39.960 in Gaza

01:03:40.880 and we are

01:03:41.620 complicitous

01:03:42.340 in that genocide.

01:03:43.920 When you say

01:03:44.200 it's a genocide, 0.55

01:03:44.880 what do you mean?

01:03:46.260 Well,

01:03:46.640 if you look at

01:03:47.320 what the definition

01:03:48.200 of a genocide is,

01:03:49.780 right,

01:03:50.820 it's where one country

01:03:52.220 tries to destroy

01:03:54.680 either all

01:03:56.500 or a substantial portion

01:03:58.100 of another group,

01:04:00.600 another ethnic

01:04:01.980 or religious

01:04:03.100 or national group

01:04:05.280 for the purposes

01:04:07.460 of basically destroying

01:04:09.100 that group identity.

01:04:10.660 That's what you're

01:04:11.580 talking about here.

01:04:12.680 I think that

01:04:14.680 that's the definition

01:04:17.360 of genocide.

01:04:20.400 It's laid out

01:04:21.320 in the 1948

01:04:22.240 convention.

01:04:24.120 I think that

01:04:24.740 what the Israelis

01:04:25.420 are doing

01:04:26.020 fits that description.

01:04:27.840 And lots of people

01:04:28.920 and organizations

01:04:29.780 agree with me

01:04:31.560 on that point.

01:04:32.940 It's very important

01:04:33.560 to understand here

01:04:34.280 that just killing

01:04:35.460 large numbers 0.89

01:04:36.500 of Palestinians

01:04:37.360 is not necessarily

01:04:39.560 genocide.

01:04:40.140 I mean,

01:04:41.540 the United States,

01:04:42.980 when it firebombed

01:04:44.340 Japan in World War II,

01:04:47.180 killed many more

01:04:48.160 Japanese

01:04:48.740 than the Israelis 0.99

01:04:49.500 have killed

01:04:49.980 Palestinians in Gaza. 0.94

01:04:51.380 There's no question

01:04:52.000 about that.

01:04:52.820 But no one

01:04:53.400 would ever accuse

01:04:54.200 the United States

01:04:55.080 of executing

01:04:55.800 a genocide

01:04:56.640 against Japan.

01:04:58.640 The United States

01:04:59.980 was killing

01:05:01.840 large numbers

01:05:02.520 of Japanese civilians.

01:05:03.740 And by the way,

01:05:04.180 we killed large numbers

01:05:05.200 of German civilians

01:05:06.360 as well.

01:05:07.300 Millions.

01:05:08.160 Yeah.

01:05:09.080 For purposes

01:05:09.740 of ending the war.

01:05:11.400 We wanted

01:05:11.820 to end the war.

01:05:12.740 And if you look

01:05:13.260 at how we treated

01:05:13.980 the Japanese

01:05:14.660 and how we treated

01:05:16.020 the Germans

01:05:16.600 once the war ended,

01:05:18.640 it was very clear

01:05:19.340 that we were not

01:05:20.060 bent on genocide.

01:05:21.380 This is not

01:05:22.080 to excuse

01:05:22.840 what we did

01:05:24.560 against Japan

01:05:25.500 and Germany.

01:05:26.400 And I do believe

01:05:27.260 we murdered, 0.74

01:05:28.080 I would use

01:05:28.620 the word murdered,

01:05:29.820 large numbers

01:05:30.660 or millions

01:05:31.380 of Japanese

01:05:32.740 and Germans

01:05:33.360 together.

01:05:34.200 But in the case

01:05:35.700 of what's going

01:05:36.400 on in Gaza,

01:05:37.580 right,

01:05:37.800 what's happening

01:05:39.640 here is that

01:05:40.460 the Israelis

01:05:41.140 are systematically

01:05:42.600 trying to destroy 0.99

01:05:44.520 the Palestinians 0.97

01:05:45.420 as a national group,

01:05:47.440 right?

01:05:48.000 They're targeting

01:05:49.060 them as Palestinians

01:05:50.400 and they're trying 0.99

01:05:51.640 to destroy 0.95

01:05:53.600 Palestinian

01:05:54.940 national identity

01:05:56.500 in addition

01:05:57.460 to murdering

01:05:58.480 huge numbers 0.99

01:05:59.420 of Palestinians.

01:06:00.400 And I mean,

01:06:02.120 it's not just

01:06:02.580 a rage reflex.

01:06:03.580 This is a strategy,

01:06:04.840 of course,

01:06:05.380 two and a half years

01:06:06.100 later,

01:06:06.680 almost three years

01:06:07.220 later.

01:06:08.200 What is the strategy?

01:06:09.540 What's the goal

01:06:10.860 of this?

01:06:12.560 My view on this

01:06:13.720 is that

01:06:15.720 the Israelis

01:06:16.680 have long

01:06:18.240 been interested

01:06:19.160 in expelling

01:06:20.720 the Palestinian

01:06:21.960 population

01:06:22.860 from greater Israel.

01:06:24.560 If you look

01:06:25.160 at greater Israel,

01:06:26.020 this includes

01:06:27.240 the Israel

01:06:28.160 that was created

01:06:28.900 in 1948

01:06:30.180 and the occupied

01:06:32.060 plus the occupied

01:06:33.220 territories.

01:06:34.560 This is the West Bank.

01:06:35.740 The post-67.

01:06:36.780 Post-67.

01:06:37.880 West Bank

01:06:38.440 and Gaza.

01:06:39.160 So West Bank,

01:06:40.980 Gaza,

01:06:41.580 and what we call

01:06:42.320 Green Line Israel. 0.69

01:06:43.440 That's greater Israel. 0.93

01:06:44.840 Inside greater Israel, 0.88

01:06:46.980 there are about

01:06:47.580 7.3 million Jews

01:06:49.780 and about

01:06:50.580 7.3 million

01:06:52.320 Palestinians.

01:06:54.380 And

01:06:54.920 from the get-go,

01:06:56.320 going back

01:06:57.060 to

01:06:57.380 the early days

01:06:59.200 of Zionism 0.86

01:07:00.120 and

01:07:01.360 the views

01:07:02.020 of people

01:07:02.360 like David Ben-Gurion,

01:07:04.140 they believed

01:07:05.240 that you needed

01:07:06.560 a Jewish state

01:07:08.280 that was about

01:07:09.000 80%

01:07:10.200 Jewish

01:07:10.860 and 20%

01:07:12.000 Palestinian.

01:07:13.040 In an ideal world, 0.99

01:07:14.180 you would get rid 1.00

01:07:14.680 of all the Palestinians. 1.00

01:07:16.560 But

01:07:16.820 the least bad

01:07:18.160 alternative is 80-20.

01:07:19.980 But you actually

01:07:20.640 have a situation

01:07:21.320 in greater Israel

01:07:22.220 where you have 50-50.

01:07:24.020 So October 7th

01:07:25.100 happens

01:07:25.500 and what the Israelis

01:07:26.600 see is an excellent

01:07:27.980 opportunity

01:07:28.700 for ethnic cleansing.

01:07:30.400 And they make

01:07:30.980 this clear.

01:07:31.940 In other words,

01:07:32.600 it's an excellent

01:07:33.520 opportunity

01:07:34.160 to go to war

01:07:35.300 in Gaza

01:07:35.860 and drive 0.61

01:07:37.160 the Palestinians

01:07:38.140 out of Gaza

01:07:39.560 and solve

01:07:40.780 that demographic

01:07:41.420 problem

01:07:42.080 that they face.

01:07:43.220 That's such

01:07:43.660 a dark thing

01:07:45.680 and therefore

01:07:46.780 that's a very

01:07:47.440 strong allegation.

01:07:48.480 On what basis

01:07:49.000 are you making it?

01:07:50.120 Oh, there's just

01:07:51.040 a huge amount

01:07:52.380 of data

01:07:54.420 that supports

01:07:55.300 this in the

01:07:56.360 Israeli press.

01:07:57.600 They have

01:07:58.120 been perfectly

01:08:00.760 willing to make

01:08:01.720 this argument

01:08:02.340 loudly and clearly.

01:08:03.720 The issue of genocide,

01:08:04.920 which I'll get to

01:08:05.480 in a second,

01:08:06.000 is a different issue.

01:08:07.380 I'm separating

01:08:08.220 ethnic cleansing

01:08:09.120 from genocide.

01:08:11.200 So what happens

01:08:11.980 after October 7th

01:08:13.260 is that the Israelis

01:08:14.100 see an opportunity

01:08:15.040 to drive

01:08:15.580 the Palestinians

01:08:16.380 out of Gaza.

01:08:18.980 And you want

01:08:19.420 to remember

01:08:19.860 that you had

01:08:20.580 massive ethnic

01:08:21.740 cleansing in 1948

01:08:23.060 when the state

01:08:23.780 is created.

01:08:25.300 Virtually all

01:08:26.100 of those people

01:08:26.920 in Gaza

01:08:27.780 are descendants

01:08:28.680 of the ethnic

01:08:30.960 cleansing of 1948.

01:08:32.060 They were kicked

01:08:32.440 out of another place.

01:08:34.320 And sent to Gaza.

01:08:35.240 Yeah.

01:08:35.980 And by the way,

01:08:36.980 there was another

01:08:37.740 massive ethnic

01:08:39.660 cleansing

01:08:40.060 after the 67

01:08:41.180 war

01:08:41.780 in the West Bank.

01:08:42.920 So this is

01:08:44.060 the third attempt

01:08:45.000 at a massive

01:08:45.740 ethnic cleansing

01:08:46.820 in Gaza.

01:08:47.820 So this is hardly

01:08:48.680 surprising at all.

01:08:49.780 And in fact,

01:08:50.260 if you go back

01:08:50.920 and read the literature

01:08:52.000 on the creation

01:08:53.560 of Israel,

01:08:54.720 this is all

01:08:55.520 thoroughly documented.

01:08:57.220 Ethnic cleansing 0.99

01:08:57.840 was a subject

01:08:58.580 that the Zionists 1.00

01:09:00.000 talked about

01:09:00.680 from the get-go.

01:09:01.720 And they talked

01:09:02.400 about extensively

01:09:03.200 because there was

01:09:04.020 no way they could

01:09:05.000 create a greater Israel

01:09:06.660 without doing

01:09:07.640 massive ethnic

01:09:08.360 cleansing.

01:09:09.160 You want to remember

01:09:09.980 that when the Zionists 0.99

01:09:11.580 come to Israel, 0.88

01:09:12.560 starting

01:09:13.100 in the late 1800s,

01:09:15.140 early 1900s,

01:09:16.580 there are remarkably

01:09:17.300 few Jews

01:09:18.320 in Palestine.

01:09:20.060 And those Jews 1.00

01:09:21.120 are not Zionists.

01:09:22.440 The Zionists 1.00

01:09:23.040 are the Jews

01:09:23.620 who come from Europe.

01:09:25.120 Right.

01:09:25.300 And they understand

01:09:26.020 that they're moving

01:09:26.860 into a territory

01:09:27.800 that's filled

01:09:28.880 with Palestinian villages

01:09:30.260 and Palestinian people.

01:09:31.880 And the question

01:09:32.540 you have to ask yourself

01:09:33.520 is how can you

01:09:34.940 create

01:09:35.520 a Jewish state

01:09:36.840 on a piece

01:09:37.820 of territory

01:09:38.700 that's filled

01:09:39.620 with Palestinians

01:09:40.440 without doing

01:09:41.660 ethnic cleansing,

01:09:42.880 massive ethnic cleansing?

01:09:44.360 And the answer

01:09:44.880 is you can't.

01:09:46.220 So they're talking

01:09:47.340 about and thinking

01:09:48.340 about ethnic cleansing

01:09:49.560 from the get-go.

01:09:50.820 So the idea

01:09:51.600 that they wouldn't

01:09:53.480 think of

01:09:54.880 what the situation

01:09:57.040 looks like

01:09:57.860 after October 7th

01:09:59.300 is an opportunity

01:10:00.380 to do ethnic cleansing,

01:10:02.320 you know,

01:10:03.120 it belies...

01:10:03.460 So it wasn't really

01:10:04.220 a land without people 0.99

01:10:05.140 for a people without land.

01:10:06.220 Absolutely not.

01:10:08.000 Absolutely not.

01:10:09.480 And David Ben-Gurion,

01:10:11.420 Vladimir Jabotinsky,

01:10:13.080 all these key

01:10:14.580 Zionist leaders 0.99

01:10:16.080 understood that

01:10:17.200 full well.

01:10:18.100 And they understood

01:10:19.340 that they were going

01:10:20.500 to have to do

01:10:21.440 horrible things 0.96

01:10:22.440 to the Palestinians.

01:10:23.940 They understood that.

01:10:25.520 And they were

01:10:26.480 explicit in saying

01:10:28.260 that they did not

01:10:29.760 blame the Palestinians 1.00

01:10:31.260 one second

01:10:32.360 for resisting

01:10:33.640 what the Jews

01:10:35.300 from Europe

01:10:35.900 were going to do

01:10:36.860 to them.

01:10:37.400 They fully understood

01:10:38.500 that they were

01:10:39.620 stealing their land.

01:10:41.040 And they fully understood

01:10:42.260 that it made perfect sense

01:10:44.160 for the Palestinians

01:10:45.360 to resist,

01:10:46.900 which of course

01:10:47.740 they did.

01:10:49.240 But anyway,

01:10:49.740 just to fast forward

01:10:51.380 to October 7th.

01:10:53.300 What happens

01:10:53.900 after October 7th

01:10:55.320 is that the Israelis

01:10:56.960 see an excellent

01:10:58.180 opportunity

01:10:58.940 to ethnically cleanse 0.92

01:11:00.160 the Palestinians

01:11:00.920 in Gaza.

01:11:01.980 You have about

01:11:02.400 2.3 million

01:11:03.560 Palestinians

01:11:04.680 in Gaza.

01:11:05.740 Just to be clear,

01:11:06.800 you have about

01:11:07.120 2.3 million

01:11:08.240 Palestinians in Gaza,

01:11:10.200 about 3.2 million

01:11:11.960 in West Bank,

01:11:15.900 and about 1.8

01:11:17.140 in Green Line, Israel.

01:11:19.500 Okay?

01:11:20.080 So this is an opportunity

01:11:21.360 to get rid 1.00

01:11:21.880 of those Palestinians. 1.00

01:11:23.400 And the way to do it

01:11:24.500 is to turn the IDF,

01:11:26.900 the Israeli military,

01:11:28.160 loose,

01:11:28.560 and let them

01:11:29.500 tear the place apart.

01:11:30.940 And the idea

01:11:32.320 is that that will

01:11:33.140 just drive

01:11:33.660 the Palestinians out. 0.99

01:11:35.860 But the problem

01:11:37.300 that the Israelis face 0.93

01:11:39.200 is the Palestinians 0.75

01:11:40.900 don't leave.

01:11:42.300 Both the Egyptians 0.93

01:11:43.640 and the Jordanians,

01:11:45.620 which are the two countries

01:11:46.780 that the Israelis

01:11:47.500 would like to drive 0.98

01:11:48.640 the Palestinians 1.00

01:11:49.540 into,

01:11:50.560 make it,

01:11:51.200 you know,

01:11:51.880 unequivocally clear

01:11:52.840 that that's not

01:11:53.760 going to happen.

01:11:54.720 Jordan is just

01:11:55.340 a giant refugee camp 1.00

01:11:56.360 already.

01:11:56.760 It already is.

01:11:57.520 From all these other wars

01:11:58.700 that have been inspired

01:12:00.100 for the same reasons.

01:12:01.220 So, I mean,

01:12:02.800 I think Jordan is,

01:12:04.080 what percent is Jordanian

01:12:05.140 as Jordan?

01:12:06.220 I mean,

01:12:06.700 tiny percent is Jordanian.

01:12:07.660 Well, it's definitely

01:12:08.540 less than 50%.

01:12:09.960 Way less.

01:12:10.740 Way less.

01:12:11.260 Yeah.

01:12:11.560 Yeah.

01:12:11.920 Yeah.

01:12:12.620 And Egypt has 0.87

01:12:13.520 100 million people already.

01:12:15.360 So.

01:12:16.280 But here's what happens, Tucker.

01:12:18.720 And I think it makes sense

01:12:20.340 if you listen

01:12:20.980 to the logic.

01:12:22.680 They start

01:12:23.400 with the goal

01:12:24.300 of ethnic cleansing.

01:12:25.120 I don't believe

01:12:26.480 they want to murder

01:12:27.940 all of the Palestinians 1.00

01:12:29.580 in Gaza.

01:12:31.680 They just simply

01:12:32.300 want to drive them out.

01:12:34.360 But the problem is

01:12:35.360 they don't leave.

01:12:37.160 And then the question is,

01:12:38.140 what do you do?

01:12:39.180 And what they do

01:12:40.100 is they continue

01:12:41.520 to up the attacks,

01:12:43.900 increase the attacks, 0.99

01:12:45.900 kill more and more people 0.99

01:12:47.620 in the hope 1.00

01:12:48.960 that they will drive them out.

01:12:51.280 And I'm sorry,

01:12:52.320 I should have asked you,

01:12:52.980 why do they want Gaza 1.00

01:12:53.960 in the first place?

01:12:54.680 It seems a lot of trouble 0.98

01:12:56.080 killing all these people, 1.00

01:12:57.960 committing, 1.00

01:12:58.540 you know,

01:12:59.780 atrocities on camera.

01:13:01.600 I mean,

01:13:01.880 the press are barred,

01:13:02.680 but we're still getting

01:13:03.280 a lot of video

01:13:04.640 out of the area.

01:13:05.640 That's a big hit.

01:13:06.660 Why do you,

01:13:07.200 why would you be willing

01:13:07.880 to go through all of that

01:13:09.140 to get Gaza?

01:13:10.960 Why do they want it? 0.81

01:13:13.260 Well,

01:13:15.120 the Zionists 0.99

01:13:15.920 from the beginning

01:13:16.780 have wanted

01:13:18.220 a greater Israel.

01:13:21.140 And

01:13:21.540 David Ben-Gurion

01:13:23.160 wrote a piece

01:13:23.920 in 1918.

01:13:25.980 And David Ben-Gurion,

01:13:27.100 of course,

01:13:27.440 is the founding father

01:13:28.320 of Israel.

01:13:29.120 Wrote a piece in 1918.

01:13:30.400 I don't think it's ever

01:13:31.460 been published in English.

01:13:32.580 It's just in Yiddish

01:13:33.800 where he describes

01:13:35.140 what his goals are

01:13:36.420 for a greater Israel.

01:13:38.400 Right.

01:13:38.720 And it obviously includes

01:13:40.280 Green Line,

01:13:40.940 Israel,

01:13:42.140 Gaza,

01:13:43.260 the West Bank.

01:13:44.100 It includes parts

01:13:45.260 of the East Bank.

01:13:46.460 It includes parts

01:13:47.720 of southern Syria.

01:13:49.280 It includes parts

01:13:50.460 of southern Lebanon.

01:13:51.940 And it includes

01:13:53.060 the Sinai Peninsula.

01:13:55.400 Just think about that.

01:13:56.880 That was Ben-Gurion's vision.

01:13:59.080 And this was a vision

01:14:00.640 that was shared

01:14:01.620 by almost all

01:14:03.000 the early Zionist leaders.

01:14:05.700 And there are still

01:14:07.040 many people

01:14:08.280 in Israel

01:14:09.060 who are in favor

01:14:10.520 of a greater Israel.

01:14:11.800 They don't want

01:14:12.680 a tiny Israel.

01:14:14.320 The Israel that was created 1.00

01:14:15.360 in 1948

01:14:16.460 is a tiny state.

01:14:18.300 Yes.

01:14:18.800 Even with Gaza 0.99

01:14:20.160 and the West Bank,

01:14:21.200 it's quite small.

01:14:22.860 It's a postage stamp

01:14:24.000 like state.

01:14:25.060 Right.

01:14:25.440 They want more territory.

01:14:26.780 And they believe

01:14:27.840 they have a historical

01:14:28.900 right to that territory.

01:14:31.560 Israel has never said,

01:14:32.920 these are our final borders.

01:14:36.100 What are Israel's 0.70

01:14:36.840 final borders?

01:14:38.180 They've never been articulated.

01:14:40.280 And the reason is

01:14:41.220 the Israelis

01:14:41.720 don't want to say out loud.

01:14:43.260 The early Zionists 1.00

01:14:44.280 did not say out loud

01:14:45.780 what their intentions were.

01:14:47.960 David Ben-Gurion

01:14:49.360 didn't get up

01:14:50.040 on a soapbox

01:14:50.800 and say,

01:14:51.400 we are going to create

01:14:52.920 a greater Israel

01:14:53.980 and it's going to include

01:14:55.500 southern Lebanon,

01:14:56.980 southern Syria,

01:14:58.460 the occupied territories,

01:14:59.940 Green Line Israel,

01:15:01.620 the Sinai,

01:15:02.400 and so forth and so on.

01:15:03.820 It's just a little,

01:15:05.680 I mean,

01:15:06.080 irony isn't powerful enough

01:15:07.740 a word.

01:15:08.040 I can't think of one.

01:15:09.340 It's odd

01:15:09.960 that the very same people

01:15:11.660 who are saying

01:15:12.300 we need to consider

01:15:13.260 tactical nukes

01:15:14.440 in order to preserve

01:15:15.100 the territorial integrity

01:15:16.220 of the sovereign nation,

01:15:17.220 Ukraine,

01:15:18.040 because national borders

01:15:19.140 are sacrosanct.

01:15:21.120 You know,

01:15:21.400 that's our,

01:15:22.120 our sacred norms

01:15:23.180 are violated

01:15:23.740 when those borders

01:15:24.500 are violated,

01:15:25.740 are saying

01:15:26.960 it's totally okay

01:15:28.220 for this one country

01:15:30.060 to like take over

01:15:30.640 other countries.

01:15:31.420 But this gets back

01:15:33.440 to my point to you.

01:15:34.260 Right?

01:15:34.560 We,

01:15:34.920 yes,

01:15:35.500 we,

01:15:35.840 I agree completely.

01:15:37.100 We support Israel

01:15:38.660 unconditionally.

01:15:40.140 Right?

01:15:40.660 In other words,

01:15:41.880 whatever Israel does,

01:15:43.900 especially vis-a-vis

01:15:45.140 the Palestinians,

01:15:46.500 the United States

01:15:47.340 backs them to the hilt.

01:15:48.580 and the fact that

01:15:50.420 they're changing borders.

01:15:52.300 I mean,

01:15:52.580 I look at what they're doing

01:15:53.680 in Lebanon and Syria

01:15:55.340 and you would think

01:15:56.680 that the United States

01:15:57.740 would have a vested interest

01:15:59.080 in trying to put pressure

01:16:00.820 on the Israelis

01:16:01.600 to stop causing murder

01:16:04.380 and mayhem

01:16:04.920 in Lebanon

01:16:05.940 and in Syria.

01:16:07.300 But we do hardly

01:16:08.220 anything at all.

01:16:09.080 And those are real countries.

01:16:10.040 Those are ancient countries

01:16:11.040 and beautiful,

01:16:11.600 beautiful countries

01:16:12.580 with sophisticated,

01:16:14.840 intelligent people

01:16:15.720 and like that

01:16:16.720 the roots of Christianity

01:16:17.740 are there.

01:16:18.480 And like,

01:16:18.940 it's not,

01:16:19.740 in other words,

01:16:20.320 I mean,

01:16:20.600 there's a sense

01:16:21.640 if you're fighting

01:16:22.100 over Sinai or something,

01:16:23.340 it's one thing,

01:16:24.000 but like Lebanon?

01:16:25.740 I mean,

01:16:25.980 that's like one of the

01:16:26.500 great countries

01:16:26.960 in the world.

01:16:27.800 Syria? 0.58

01:16:28.280 Same thing.

01:16:29.000 And they're being destroyed.

01:16:30.220 I don't understand

01:16:31.780 why people allow that

01:16:32.620 to happen.

01:16:33.480 Well,

01:16:34.160 let me explain to you

01:16:35.240 what Israel's goal is here.

01:16:37.160 First of all,

01:16:37.980 Israel's goal 0.96

01:16:38.760 is to create Laban's realm.

01:16:40.540 That's what I was describing

01:16:41.660 to you when I said

01:16:42.700 what Ben-Gurion's vision

01:16:45.520 was regarding borders.

01:16:48.020 Could you define the word?

01:16:49.320 Laban's realm means

01:16:50.300 living room.

01:16:51.300 You want a big country.

01:16:53.780 You want lots of space

01:16:54.980 for your people.

01:16:56.440 Yes.

01:16:56.860 Strategic depth.

01:16:58.260 Strategic depth,

01:16:59.200 yeah.

01:16:59.400 And so that's one goal.

01:17:02.200 The second goal

01:17:02.900 that the Israelis have 0.94

01:17:04.100 is they want to make sure

01:17:05.360 that their neighbors

01:17:06.220 are weak.

01:17:07.880 And that means

01:17:09.420 breaking them apart

01:17:10.940 if you can,

01:17:12.520 right?

01:17:12.800 And keeping them broken.

01:17:15.300 So the Israelis 0.99

01:17:16.800 were thrilled

01:17:17.940 that mainly

01:17:19.100 the United States

01:17:20.020 and the Turks 0.61

01:17:20.620 broke apart Syria. 0.99

01:17:22.520 One could argue

01:17:23.200 that Syria 0.82

01:17:23.820 was even broken

01:17:24.660 before Assad fell.

01:17:26.480 But the Israelis 0.99

01:17:27.520 want

01:17:28.480 Syria

01:17:29.860 to be a fractured state.

01:17:31.960 They want

01:17:32.520 Lebanon

01:17:33.080 to be a fractured state.

01:17:35.360 What they want

01:17:36.200 in Iran,

01:17:37.120 you know,

01:17:37.280 we talk about

01:17:37.820 the nuclear program,

01:17:39.160 the nuclear enrichment program,

01:17:40.480 and the argument

01:17:41.340 is sometimes made

01:17:42.560 that the principal goal,

01:17:43.760 the only goal,

01:17:44.980 is to go in

01:17:46.140 and eliminate 0.70

01:17:47.780 their nuclear capability.

01:17:49.020 That's a lie.

01:17:50.240 Well,

01:17:50.680 it's just part of the story.

01:17:51.900 You could call it a lie.

01:17:53.280 What the Israelis 0.53

01:17:54.860 want to do

01:17:55.420 is they want

01:17:55.940 to break Iran apart. 0.97

01:17:57.540 They want to make it

01:17:58.320 look like Syria, 0.74

01:18:00.160 right?

01:18:00.980 You want neighbors

01:18:02.500 that are not powerful.

01:18:04.500 You want them

01:18:05.100 to be fractured.

01:18:07.320 Jordan and Egypt,

01:18:08.620 they have a different

01:18:09.400 solution there.

01:18:10.800 And what's happened

01:18:11.800 is because those countries

01:18:12.940 are economically backwards,

01:18:15.120 the United States

01:18:16.280 gives them huge amounts

01:18:17.740 of economic aid.

01:18:18.880 I've noticed.

01:18:19.600 Yeah.

01:18:20.180 And that's done

01:18:21.220 for a purpose.

01:18:22.420 And any time

01:18:23.300 the Egyptians...

01:18:24.440 And what's the purpose?

01:18:25.700 Because any time

01:18:26.480 the Egyptians

01:18:26.980 or the Jordanians

01:18:28.120 get uppity

01:18:28.880 about Israel,

01:18:30.200 the United States

01:18:31.080 reminds them,

01:18:32.200 you better behave yourself

01:18:33.380 because we have

01:18:34.500 huge economic leverage

01:18:36.400 over you.

01:18:37.560 You have to be

01:18:38.640 friendly to Israel.

01:18:40.200 So Jordan and Egypt 0.70

01:18:41.900 never caused

01:18:42.580 the Israelis

01:18:43.100 any problem.

01:18:44.480 It sounds like

01:18:44.800 our entire foreign policy

01:18:46.180 at least in the

01:18:46.740 Western Hemisphere

01:18:47.400 is based on

01:18:48.120 this one country.

01:18:49.620 Well, I would say

01:18:50.980 in the Middle East...

01:18:52.360 Well, yeah.

01:18:52.880 In the Middle East,

01:18:54.380 there is no question.

01:18:57.460 People now call it

01:18:58.220 West Asia, I believe.

01:18:59.640 I call it the Middle East. 1.00

01:19:01.140 In the Middle East,

01:19:02.440 our policy

01:19:03.320 is profoundly influenced

01:19:06.120 by Israel.

01:19:09.760 We give,

01:19:10.840 as I said to you before,

01:19:12.020 we have a special

01:19:13.220 relationship

01:19:14.060 with Israel

01:19:15.020 that has no parallel

01:19:16.900 in recorded history.

01:19:18.940 It's very important

01:19:19.820 to understand it.

01:19:20.700 There is no single case

01:19:22.560 in recorded history

01:19:23.880 that comes even close

01:19:25.920 to looking like

01:19:27.280 the relationship

01:19:27.980 that we have

01:19:28.700 with Israel.

01:19:29.380 Because again,

01:19:30.140 as I said,

01:19:30.940 states sometimes

01:19:31.680 have similar interests

01:19:32.800 and this includes

01:19:33.480 the United States

01:19:34.160 and Israel,

01:19:34.980 but they also have

01:19:35.860 conflicting interests.

01:19:37.340 And when a great power

01:19:38.280 like the United States

01:19:39.360 has conflicting interests

01:19:40.560 with another country,

01:19:41.460 it almost always,

01:19:43.680 except in the case

01:19:44.380 of Israel,

01:19:45.820 acts in terms

01:19:46.580 of its own interests.

01:19:47.940 America first.

01:19:49.300 But when it comes

01:19:50.160 to Israel,

01:19:51.100 it's Israel first. 0.60

01:19:52.760 And if you go

01:19:54.640 to the Middle East

01:19:55.340 and look at our policy

01:19:56.420 there,

01:19:56.900 there's just

01:19:57.460 abundant evidence

01:19:59.580 to support that.

01:20:01.300 So then the question,

01:20:02.180 I mean,

01:20:02.340 there's so many questions,

01:20:03.460 but the question is why?

01:20:06.980 Like, what is that?

01:20:08.100 And I think it's really

01:20:10.320 causing serious problems

01:20:13.960 in the current

01:20:14.880 ruling coalition

01:20:15.680 because the contradiction

01:20:16.860 is too obvious.

01:20:17.780 It's not America first.

01:20:19.380 And people can see that

01:20:21.020 because it's so evident.

01:20:23.660 But what are the causes of it?

01:20:25.760 Like, why would,

01:20:26.800 for the first time,

01:20:27.500 as you said,

01:20:27.940 in recorded history,

01:20:28.860 a nation spend,

01:20:30.460 you know,

01:20:30.840 whatever it is,

01:20:31.420 a trillion dollars a year

01:20:32.460 in effect

01:20:33.200 to serve the interests

01:20:34.720 of another country?

01:20:36.020 Like, why?

01:20:36.480 Well, I believe

01:20:38.560 there's one simple answer,

01:20:40.440 the Israel lobby.

01:20:41.920 I think the lobby

01:20:43.680 is an incredibly

01:20:45.640 powerful interest group.

01:20:48.300 And I'm choosing

01:20:49.440 my words carefully.

01:20:51.040 It has awesome power.

01:20:53.400 And it basically

01:20:56.140 is in a position

01:20:57.560 where it can

01:20:59.440 profoundly influence

01:21:02.480 U.S. foreign policy

01:21:04.360 in the Middle East.

01:21:06.080 and indeed

01:21:07.460 it affects

01:21:09.020 foreign policy

01:21:10.020 outside of the Middle East.

01:21:11.680 But when it comes

01:21:12.200 to the Middle East,

01:21:12.980 and again,

01:21:13.600 the Palestinian issue

01:21:14.600 in particular,

01:21:15.800 it has awesome power.

01:21:17.900 And there's no president

01:21:19.400 who is willing

01:21:21.800 to buck the lobby.

01:21:23.100 What sort of power

01:21:24.600 is it?

01:21:25.180 Because it's not

01:21:25.940 rhetorical power.

01:21:27.200 It's not,

01:21:28.380 you know,

01:21:28.640 the most powerful

01:21:30.500 movements in history

01:21:31.560 are fueled by

01:21:32.520 an idea

01:21:34.340 that's usually

01:21:34.980 the most powerful

01:21:35.720 or fueled by an idea

01:21:36.660 that's like,

01:21:37.220 true, right?

01:21:39.660 But I never hear

01:21:41.160 anybody make

01:21:42.100 a detailed case

01:21:43.380 for why

01:21:44.560 the United States

01:21:45.260 benefits from

01:21:46.360 the current arrangement.

01:21:47.640 Never.

01:21:48.240 No one.

01:21:48.760 Ever.

01:21:49.200 Nikki Haley

01:21:49.760 came as close

01:21:50.920 as anyone

01:21:51.340 by saying

01:21:51.900 the United States

01:21:52.480 gets a lot more

01:21:53.140 out of the relationship

01:21:53.840 than Israel does. 0.80

01:21:55.200 But that never explained

01:21:56.180 how exactly that works.

01:21:57.680 So it's not a matter

01:21:58.640 of like convincing people

01:22:00.180 clearly.

01:22:01.600 So what is it a matter of?

01:22:02.960 Where does that power

01:22:03.540 come from?

01:22:04.720 Well,

01:22:05.540 let me put this

01:22:06.360 in a broader context.

01:22:07.820 I think that

01:22:09.080 in the past

01:22:11.120 when I was younger,

01:22:13.120 the lobby

01:22:14.380 operated on two levels.

01:22:16.060 One was the policy level

01:22:17.440 and two was

01:22:18.840 the popular discourse.

01:22:20.900 Yes.

01:22:21.420 And I think in terms

01:22:22.240 of the popular discourse

01:22:23.660 for a long,

01:22:25.440 long time,

01:22:26.920 right?

01:22:27.660 And this would be

01:22:28.760 well into the 2000s.

01:22:31.560 The Israel lobby,

01:22:33.340 the Israel lobby

01:22:34.280 basically influenced

01:22:36.800 the discourse

01:22:37.960 in ways that made

01:22:39.460 the Israelis

01:22:40.180 look like the good guys.

01:22:42.220 And it made it look like

01:22:44.160 every time

01:22:44.800 the United States

01:22:45.600 supported Israel,

01:22:46.740 it was because

01:22:47.520 it was in our

01:22:48.520 national interest,

01:22:50.180 right?

01:22:50.580 So the discourse

01:22:51.940 was not at odds

01:22:54.240 with what was happening

01:22:55.700 at the policy level.

01:22:57.600 Right.

01:22:57.940 Now,

01:22:58.160 the situation

01:22:58.820 you described,

01:23:00.180 which I think

01:23:01.160 is a perfect

01:23:02.460 description

01:23:03.640 of the situation

01:23:04.860 that we face today,

01:23:06.000 is that the lobby

01:23:07.520 has lost control

01:23:08.960 of the discourse.

01:23:10.320 And people now

01:23:11.700 understand

01:23:12.540 that

01:23:14.380 the United States

01:23:15.620 is doing things

01:23:16.840 for Israel

01:23:17.740 that are not

01:23:18.780 in the American

01:23:19.620 national interest.

01:23:21.400 Furthermore,

01:23:21.860 they see the lobby

01:23:23.300 out in the open

01:23:24.580 engaging

01:23:25.460 in smash mouth

01:23:26.720 politics.

01:23:27.980 People are now

01:23:28.680 fully aware

01:23:29.540 that there is a lobby

01:23:30.680 out there,

01:23:31.480 that it's trying

01:23:32.260 to control

01:23:32.820 the discourse.

01:23:33.820 And in fact,

01:23:35.140 it basically does

01:23:36.560 control,

01:23:37.860 maybe that's a bit

01:23:38.700 too strong a word,

01:23:39.920 but it's close.

01:23:40.620 It basically does

01:23:41.880 control

01:23:42.520 the policy makers.

01:23:44.100 So now,

01:23:44.960 you have this

01:23:45.520 real disconnect.

01:23:46.060 Well,

01:23:46.160 it controls

01:23:46.680 the policy makers.

01:23:47.660 I mean,

01:23:47.860 that's demonstrable,

01:23:49.640 you know,

01:23:49.960 I think.

01:23:50.460 It's measurable.

01:23:51.520 Yeah.

01:23:51.900 So,

01:23:52.440 yes.

01:23:53.200 But,

01:23:53.460 so you have,

01:23:54.480 what you were describing

01:23:55.540 is the disconnect

01:23:56.620 between the discourse

01:23:58.340 and the policy world

01:23:59.940 that now exists.

01:24:01.320 But what I'm saying to you

01:24:02.240 is you want to remember

01:24:02.960 that the lobby

01:24:03.700 was immensely successful

01:24:05.640 for a long period

01:24:06.640 of time

01:24:07.100 because the discourse

01:24:09.160 and the policy process

01:24:11.660 looked like

01:24:12.280 they were in sync.

01:24:13.300 So successful

01:24:14.300 that just basic

01:24:15.340 historical facts

01:24:16.500 about the creation

01:24:17.260 of this nation state

01:24:18.240 in 1948

01:24:18.880 are like unknown

01:24:20.000 to people

01:24:20.460 and it's shocking

01:24:21.240 to hear them

01:24:21.960 and you think,

01:24:23.880 well,

01:24:23.920 that can't be right.

01:24:24.860 That's like so far

01:24:25.760 from what I heard

01:24:26.400 as a child

01:24:26.880 that that's obviously,

01:24:28.080 what?

01:24:29.060 All the Christians

01:24:29.860 were kicked out?

01:24:30.500 All these Christians 1.00

01:24:31.160 were kicked out

01:24:31.820 of their historic

01:24:32.860 homelands there

01:24:33.680 and of course

01:24:34.360 many more Muslims

01:24:35.460 and did that

01:24:37.560 really happen?

01:24:38.200 I mean,

01:24:38.840 people just have

01:24:39.280 no idea

01:24:39.740 what the facts are.

01:24:41.140 It's kind of interesting.

01:24:42.280 Yes,

01:24:42.480 well,

01:24:42.620 the lobby went

01:24:43.460 to great lengths

01:24:44.300 to make sure

01:24:44.840 that you didn't

01:24:45.420 know the facts.

01:24:46.440 And anyone

01:24:47.020 who said the facts

01:24:47.780 out loud 0.99

01:24:48.120 was like a lunatic 1.00

01:24:50.080 or a jihadist 1.00

01:24:51.180 or a hater

01:24:53.140 of some kind.

01:24:54.140 An anti-Semite.

01:24:55.380 Yeah. 1.00

01:24:55.680 Self-hating Jews. 0.99

01:24:57.200 You know, 0.98

01:24:57.560 it's very interesting.

01:24:58.640 I often think

01:24:59.280 about my own

01:25:00.240 evolution

01:25:01.880 in this regard.

01:25:03.460 When I grew up

01:25:04.380 as a kid,

01:25:05.060 I was heavily influenced

01:25:06.360 by Leon Uris' book

01:25:07.940 Exodus

01:25:08.540 and the subsequent

01:25:09.600 movie

01:25:10.200 with, I think,

01:25:11.040 Paul Newman

01:25:11.600 and Eva Marie Saint.

01:25:13.740 And that,

01:25:14.520 of course,

01:25:14.880 that Exodus story

01:25:16.000 portrayed the Israelis

01:25:17.740 in the most favorable light

01:25:19.420 and the Arabs

01:25:20.440 or Palestinians 0.86

01:25:21.540 in the most negative light.

01:25:23.620 So,

01:25:24.400 for much

01:25:25.480 of my life,

01:25:26.520 you know,

01:25:27.080 up until the late 80s,

01:25:28.520 early 90s,

01:25:29.500 I thought the Israelis 1.00

01:25:30.740 were,

01:25:31.660 without a doubt,

01:25:32.360 the good guys

01:25:33.120 up against

01:25:33.860 the bad guys.

01:25:34.960 And it was really

01:25:35.600 David versus Goliath

01:25:37.160 as well.

01:25:37.800 And the Israelis 0.77

01:25:38.420 were David

01:25:39.200 up against

01:25:39.840 an Arab Goliath. 0.97

01:25:41.040 That was the picture

01:25:41.640 I had in my head.

01:25:43.080 But then,

01:25:44.120 in the late 80s,

01:25:45.320 early 90s,

01:25:47.000 a group

01:25:47.620 of historians

01:25:48.800 in Israel

01:25:50.340 called the New Historians

01:25:52.220 came on the scene.

01:25:53.560 Benny Morris.

01:25:54.360 Benny Morris,

01:25:55.200 Avi Schleim,

01:25:56.340 Yeah.

01:25:57.360 Ilan Papay.

01:25:59.320 Some of them

01:25:59.740 were amazing.

01:26:00.580 Amazing,

01:26:01.220 yeah.

01:26:01.540 I agree.

01:26:02.040 And what they did

01:26:03.700 was they had access

01:26:04.620 to the archives.

01:26:05.820 Yes.

01:26:06.180 And they told

01:26:06.940 the real story.

01:26:08.220 And that was a moment

01:26:08.880 where I think

01:26:09.340 the country felt,

01:26:10.180 Israel felt confident enough 1.00

01:26:11.580 to allow

01:26:13.080 that conversation

01:26:14.360 internally

01:26:14.860 and that honesty.

01:26:16.140 I think that's

01:26:16.940 exactly right.

01:26:18.100 The lobby

01:26:18.600 had been so successful.

01:26:20.140 Israel had been 0.99

01:26:21.000 so successful.

01:26:21.900 Yes.

01:26:22.380 I went there.

01:26:23.040 I was amazed.

01:26:24.000 What a beautiful place.

01:26:25.360 Great people.

01:26:26.280 It was great.

01:26:27.500 Yeah.

01:26:27.740 Yeah.

01:26:28.060 They thought

01:26:28.520 they controlled.

01:26:30.060 They had things

01:26:31.040 under control.

01:26:31.880 They did.

01:26:32.080 That's right.

01:26:32.540 And that they could allow

01:26:33.920 these historians

01:26:35.520 to tell the truth.

01:26:37.840 Now,

01:26:38.220 I believe

01:26:39.020 they could have

01:26:39.780 gotten away with it

01:26:41.220 if they had

01:26:42.440 stopped expanding

01:26:44.100 or if they had

01:26:45.540 agreed to a

01:26:46.400 two-state solution.

01:26:48.000 The problem

01:26:48.940 is that

01:26:49.780 after the early

01:26:51.160 1990s,

01:26:52.240 when this literature

01:26:53.320 came out,

01:26:54.600 the Israelis

01:26:55.340 continued

01:26:56.380 to act

01:26:57.600 in barbaric

01:26:59.200 ways

01:26:59.580 towards the

01:27:00.120 Palestinians.

01:27:02.320 Well,

01:27:02.600 they had a

01:27:02.980 prime minister

01:27:03.500 who tried

01:27:04.000 to reverse

01:27:04.380 the trend

01:27:04.880 and then

01:27:05.460 he was shot

01:27:06.880 to death. 0.75

01:27:08.360 He was moving

01:27:09.060 in that direction.

01:27:10.120 I think there

01:27:10.820 were a number

01:27:11.420 of Israeli leaders

01:27:12.960 who understood

01:27:13.920 that the course

01:27:15.740 that Israel

01:27:16.400 was on

01:27:17.180 was unsustainable.

01:27:18.600 You often heard

01:27:19.260 them say that.

01:27:20.340 Yeah.

01:27:20.780 There was a robust

01:27:21.420 debate within the

01:27:22.200 country about this.

01:27:23.060 Well,

01:27:23.540 whether they

01:27:24.100 would have

01:27:24.500 agreed to

01:27:25.240 a Palestinian

01:27:25.940 state ultimately

01:27:26.960 is an open

01:27:27.680 question.

01:27:28.120 But the fact

01:27:28.820 is Rabin

01:27:29.820 was killed.

01:27:31.020 Ehud Barak

01:27:31.880 who made

01:27:33.180 moves towards

01:27:34.060 a two-state

01:27:34.700 solution

01:27:35.180 ultimately

01:27:36.060 couldn't pull

01:27:37.140 it off.

01:27:38.140 And we are

01:27:39.180 where we are

01:27:39.940 today.

01:27:40.960 And the problem

01:27:41.780 is that

01:27:42.760 something else

01:27:44.100 occurred in the

01:27:45.020 late 90s,

01:27:45.780 early 2000s

01:27:47.100 which fundamentally

01:27:48.740 affected Israel's

01:27:49.980 position.

01:27:50.480 and that's

01:27:51.240 the internet.

01:27:52.400 Because once

01:27:53.360 you get the

01:27:54.140 internet and

01:27:55.080 once you get

01:27:55.820 social media

01:27:56.840 and the

01:27:57.780 mainstream media

01:27:58.720 is not the

01:27:59.640 sole source of

01:28:00.360 information on

01:28:01.520 these issues,

01:28:02.980 the story about

01:28:04.480 the real

01:28:05.280 creation of

01:28:07.360 Israel and

01:28:08.380 what Israel is

01:28:09.360 doing today

01:28:10.740 is available

01:28:12.800 to the vast

01:28:13.860 majority of

01:28:14.860 people.

01:28:14.920 It's shocking

01:28:15.320 to people.

01:28:17.400 So you have to

01:28:18.440 shut down the

01:28:18.840 internet.

01:28:19.200 You can't allow

01:28:19.700 that.

01:28:20.480 Yeah.

01:28:23.440 You can try

01:28:24.460 to shut down

01:28:25.140 the internet

01:28:25.600 but there are

01:28:26.740 limits to what

01:28:27.400 you can do.

01:28:29.120 But it does

01:28:30.020 seem like

01:28:31.000 you were

01:28:34.120 describing the

01:28:34.760 two separate

01:28:35.340 tiers, the

01:28:35.880 policy and the

01:28:36.500 discourse about

01:28:37.100 the policy,

01:28:38.660 and that one

01:28:39.540 remains basically

01:28:40.340 the same but

01:28:41.600 the other has

01:28:42.020 changed just so

01:28:42.860 radically, so

01:28:44.440 radically and so

01:28:45.200 fast that it's

01:28:45.740 gone off in some

01:28:46.400 dark directions

01:28:47.080 that I just want

01:28:47.560 to say on the

01:28:47.940 record I totally

01:28:48.560 disapprove of.

01:28:49.320 I don't think

01:28:49.560 you should hate

01:28:50.000 anybody, period,

01:28:51.220 especially groups

01:28:51.840 of people.

01:28:52.260 It's immoral.

01:28:53.400 And I mean it.

01:28:54.840 But that's

01:28:55.300 happened because

01:28:56.260 there's been

01:28:56.720 like an avalanche

01:28:59.020 of new information,

01:29:00.480 a lot of which

01:29:00.980 is totally real.

01:29:02.520 People haven't

01:29:03.040 seen it before

01:29:03.660 and their minds

01:29:04.260 are exploding.

01:29:05.000 And so public

01:29:06.280 opinion is moving

01:29:07.160 so radically

01:29:08.080 in the other

01:29:08.620 direction.

01:29:09.000 and I feel it

01:29:09.540 all around me.

01:29:10.260 Do you feel

01:29:10.900 this?

01:29:11.500 Of course.

01:29:12.100 Yeah, and your

01:29:12.760 life, I mean, I

01:29:13.660 should say for

01:29:14.260 people who aren't

01:29:14.640 familiar with your

01:29:15.020 background, you

01:29:15.440 wrote a book with

01:29:17.220 Stephen Waltz of

01:29:18.240 Harvard.

01:29:19.160 You're at the

01:29:19.680 University of

01:29:19.980 Chicago, so both

01:29:20.740 of you have

01:29:22.000 tenure, are famous

01:29:23.280 in your world,

01:29:25.260 you're not crazy,

01:29:26.560 and you write this

01:29:27.640 book in 2007, and

01:29:29.480 both of you are

01:29:30.240 immediately attacked

01:29:31.500 in pretty shocking

01:29:32.600 ways, also defended

01:29:33.640 by some of your

01:29:35.780 colleagues, but really

01:29:36.560 maligned for it.

01:29:38.060 And now, 18 years

01:29:39.440 later, people are

01:29:41.120 saying, that

01:29:42.380 Mearsheimer guy,

01:29:43.080 actually, he was

01:29:43.820 kind of right about

01:29:44.700 everything.

01:29:45.340 So that's a

01:29:46.000 reflection, I think,

01:29:46.600 of the change in

01:29:47.080 public opinion.

01:29:48.540 But that's not

01:29:49.640 sustainable.

01:29:50.300 You can't have in 0.93

01:29:51.240 a democracy policy

01:29:53.440 that's 180 degrees

01:29:55.220 from public opinion

01:29:55.980 over time.

01:29:56.840 That just doesn't

01:29:57.440 work.

01:29:58.280 So you have to

01:29:59.320 either change the

01:30:00.000 policy or change

01:30:02.120 public opinion.

01:30:03.420 And no one's even

01:30:04.440 making any attempt

01:30:05.580 at all to change

01:30:06.300 public opinion

01:30:06.880 through good faith

01:30:07.640 argument, through

01:30:08.860 like, hey, I know

01:30:10.100 you think this, but

01:30:10.720 you're wrong, and 0.96

01:30:11.220 here's why.

01:30:11.660 There's zero, none. 1.00

01:30:13.320 It's shut up, Nazi. 1.00

01:30:15.180 Okay? 1.00

01:30:15.460 And that's not

01:30:15.920 working.

01:30:16.840 So I really think

01:30:18.120 the only option is

01:30:20.660 to stop the

01:30:21.480 conversation.

01:30:22.480 Or maybe I'm

01:30:23.260 missing something.

01:30:23.940 Like, censorship

01:30:24.360 is the only option

01:30:26.600 if you want to

01:30:27.200 maintain status quo.

01:30:29.380 Well, there's no

01:30:30.320 question that they're

01:30:31.280 trying to stop the

01:30:32.760 conversation.

01:30:34.140 Yes.

01:30:34.340 No question.

01:30:35.500 I mean, they went

01:30:36.660 to great lengths to

01:30:37.520 shut down TikTok, and

01:30:39.040 the evidence is that

01:30:40.900 the lobby played a

01:30:42.940 key role.

01:30:43.660 Just banning one of

01:30:44.480 the world's biggest

01:30:45.340 social media apps

01:30:47.380 because it says

01:30:48.420 things you don't

01:30:48.960 like.

01:30:49.500 Yeah.

01:30:50.180 Yeah.

01:30:50.480 Yeah.

01:30:50.760 Well, this is the

01:30:51.540 way they've always

01:30:52.240 behaved.

01:30:53.080 The lobby's always

01:30:54.000 behaved this way.

01:30:55.800 And, I mean, this

01:30:57.200 is what happened to me

01:30:58.140 and Steve.

01:30:58.560 You know, we

01:30:59.000 originally wrote an

01:31:00.020 article, and we

01:31:02.000 at one point thought

01:31:02.880 the article would

01:31:03.600 never be published.

01:31:05.100 After we wrote the

01:31:06.240 article, and we

01:31:08.340 went through all

01:31:08.980 sorts of interactions

01:31:09.920 with the Atlantic

01:31:10.720 Monthly that had

01:31:11.760 commissioned the

01:31:12.580 article, we put the

01:31:14.500 article in the back

01:31:15.560 closet and just said...

01:31:16.960 So you were asked

01:31:17.800 to write a piece

01:31:18.440 about the influence

01:31:19.660 of a foreign

01:31:20.640 lobby, the Israeli

01:31:21.360 lobby in Washington,

01:31:23.980 which is one of many

01:31:25.860 foreign lobbies in

01:31:26.660 Washington, but it's

01:31:27.240 by far the most

01:31:27.840 effective and the

01:31:28.440 biggest, and you

01:31:30.340 write the piece and

01:31:31.060 they didn't run it?

01:31:32.080 Yeah.

01:31:32.600 Why?

01:31:33.380 Because they got

01:31:33.920 cold feet.

01:31:34.720 I mean, what

01:31:35.040 invariably happens in

01:31:36.220 these cases is that

01:31:37.400 down at the lower

01:31:38.860 levels of a journal

01:31:40.080 or a newspaper, people

01:31:42.080 will be interested in

01:31:43.720 somebody writing

01:31:44.900 something on the

01:31:46.720 Israel lobby or

01:31:47.700 writing a piece

01:31:48.320 that's critical of

01:31:49.080 Israel, but then as

01:31:50.160 it filters up the

01:31:51.780 chain of command and

01:31:53.140 people at the top

01:31:54.040 see it, they kill 0.96

01:31:55.260 it, right? 0.97

01:31:56.540 And that happened

01:31:57.220 to you.

01:31:57.500 Oh, that's

01:31:57.920 definitely what

01:31:58.480 happened at the

01:31:59.160 lobby, at the

01:32:00.280 Atlantic Monthly.

01:32:01.260 They killed it.

01:32:02.620 And then Steve and

01:32:04.040 I went to Princeton

01:32:06.800 University Press and

01:32:08.320 a handful of other

01:32:09.280 journals and asked

01:32:10.200 if they would be

01:32:10.740 interested in either

01:32:11.760 the article or

01:32:12.660 turning the article

01:32:13.460 into a book.

01:32:15.500 And in all those

01:32:17.100 cases, everybody at

01:32:18.560 first exudes

01:32:20.220 enthusiasm.

01:32:21.340 They think it's a

01:32:21.920 great topic.

01:32:23.040 Something needs to

01:32:23.940 be written on it,

01:32:24.780 which of course is

01:32:25.580 true.

01:32:25.920 But then they

01:32:27.100 think about it for

01:32:27.940 a month and you

01:32:28.580 get a call back and

01:32:30.300 they've lost interest.

01:32:32.640 So Steve and I

01:32:33.460 actually put the

01:32:35.420 articles, I said, in

01:32:37.260 the back closet and

01:32:38.360 just said...

01:32:39.120 What's wild is you're

01:32:40.000 both at this point

01:32:41.520 very well known.

01:32:43.360 Can you explain who

01:32:44.460 Steve is to your

01:32:45.400 co-authors?

01:32:45.880 Yeah, Steve is a

01:32:47.540 chaired professor at

01:32:48.540 Harvard University.

01:32:49.400 University and at the

01:32:50.220 time that we wrote

01:32:51.280 the lobby article, he

01:32:54.520 was the academic dean

01:32:56.240 at the Kennedy

01:32:57.200 School.

01:32:57.820 Okay, so I just...

01:32:59.060 I'm sure a lot of

01:33:00.540 people already know

01:33:01.160 that, but I just want

01:33:01.580 to make it totally

01:33:02.140 clear.

01:33:03.100 You're not two random

01:33:03.900 guys on the internet

01:33:04.680 who are like anti-Semites 0.79

01:33:05.860 or something at all.

01:33:07.180 You're like some of the

01:33:08.560 most famous people in

01:33:09.360 your field.

01:33:10.060 You're totally moderate.

01:33:12.160 I don't even know what

01:33:12.600 your politics are, but

01:33:13.340 you're not a political

01:33:14.040 activist at all.

01:33:14.980 Well, as I used to

01:33:17.260 like to say, if Adolf

01:33:18.440 Hitler were alive, he 1.00

01:33:19.600 would have thrown 0.63

01:33:20.100 Steve's wife and his

01:33:21.300 two children in a gas

01:33:22.560 chamber, right?

01:33:23.860 I mean, the idea that

01:33:25.020 we're anti-Semites, I 0.67

01:33:26.540 mean, this is a 0.80

01:33:27.520 laughable argument.

01:33:28.580 We're both first-order

01:33:29.840 philo-Semites. 0.95

01:33:30.940 I mean, I can't prove

01:33:31.960 that, but it's true in

01:33:33.860 my humble opinion.

01:33:35.240 But anyway, we were

01:33:36.660 certainly, you know, at

01:33:37.820 the top of our academic

01:33:39.340 disciplines and highly

01:33:41.620 respected, which is not

01:33:42.800 to say people didn't

01:33:43.700 disagree with what we

01:33:44.760 wrote.

01:33:46.300 But you weren't

01:33:46.960 crackpots at all.

01:33:48.460 And the other thing is,

01:33:49.380 I want to make it clear

01:33:50.120 that we worked very

01:33:51.020 carefully with the

01:33:52.320 Atlantic to get our

01:33:53.780 final draft up to their

01:33:56.880 standards, right?

01:33:58.040 We did what they wanted.

01:34:00.220 And you also want to

01:34:01.540 remember that Steve and

01:34:02.960 I are both excellent

01:34:04.500 writers.

01:34:05.600 Many academics cannot

01:34:06.700 write clearly.

01:34:07.820 Whatever you think of

01:34:08.440 the substance of our

01:34:09.460 views, there's no doubt

01:34:11.060 that we're two of the

01:34:11.780 best writers in the

01:34:12.960 business.

01:34:13.360 And it's the two of

01:34:15.240 us working with the

01:34:16.200 editors at the lower

01:34:18.100 rungs of the Atlantic

01:34:19.380 monthly that produced

01:34:20.980 what I thought was an

01:34:22.180 excellent article.

01:34:23.020 But anyway, it was

01:34:24.100 killed there.

01:34:25.160 And we couldn't get it

01:34:26.660 published.

01:34:27.140 Kind of proven your

01:34:27.900 point.

01:34:28.620 Yes, exactly.

01:34:29.900 Exactly.

01:34:30.820 And by the way, I

01:34:35.660 probably shouldn't tell

01:34:36.340 this story, but I'll tell

01:34:37.280 you, I, we told the

01:34:40.380 editor at the Atlantic

01:34:42.060 as we were going

01:34:43.300 through the process that

01:34:45.180 we thought he was

01:34:46.100 getting cold feet and

01:34:48.000 he was quite offended by

01:34:49.360 that.

01:34:49.900 And he said to us, just

01:34:51.680 to prove that that

01:34:52.500 wasn't true, he would 0.97

01:34:53.480 give us a $10,000 kill

01:34:55.400 fee. 0.66

01:34:56.120 That means if they

01:34:57.400 didn't take the article,

01:34:58.600 they'd give us $10,000.

01:35:00.920 So I said to Steve, I

01:35:02.580 remember it very well.

01:35:03.620 That's the fastest $10,000

01:35:05.540 we ever made.

01:35:07.620 He said, oh, John, you're

01:35:08.820 being too cynical.

01:35:10.380 Anyway, we collected the

01:35:11.840 $10,000.

01:35:12.260 Did he pay you?

01:35:13.080 Yes, yes.

01:35:13.940 I mean, but what he did.

01:35:16.180 How ashamed was he when

01:35:17.720 he, because I'm not going

01:35:18.980 to name him, I know the

01:35:19.800 editor.

01:35:21.180 This is a pretty well-known

01:35:22.400 editor who's just been in

01:35:23.660 magazine journalism for

01:35:24.720 decades and, you know, has a

01:35:26.340 high regard for himself and

01:35:27.980 good reputation and all

01:35:29.240 stuff, and he's told from

01:35:30.700 somebody else who's more

01:35:31.900 powerful than he is, you

01:35:32.720 can't do this.

01:35:33.820 How embarrassed was he in

01:35:35.820 that conversation?

01:35:36.520 I had no evidence that he

01:35:37.820 was embarrassed.

01:35:38.940 Oh, so he has no soul.

01:35:40.400 No, I mean, who knows, you

01:35:43.280 know, what kind of face he

01:35:44.480 had to put on things.

01:35:45.600 I don't know what happened

01:35:46.700 inside the Atlantic.

01:35:47.820 I've never been told.

01:35:49.820 But, again, he said he'd

01:35:52.760 give us a $10,000 kill fee

01:35:54.500 because he thought the peace

01:35:55.660 was going to go forward.

01:35:56.720 And somebody sat on him

01:36:01.240 and told him that that was

01:36:03.000 not going to happen.

01:36:03.920 I don't know what happened.

01:36:05.640 But I don't want to be too

01:36:07.800 harsh on him because this is

01:36:09.840 the norm.

01:36:10.780 Yeah.

01:36:11.260 This was the norm.

01:36:12.640 He didn't own the magazine.

01:36:13.760 And so what we did was we put

01:36:16.440 it in the back closet.

01:36:17.640 And I remember Steve and I had

01:36:19.260 a conversation, and I think

01:36:21.000 Steve said to me, this is why

01:36:22.340 we have tenure, so that you can

01:36:24.000 spend two years of your life

01:36:25.600 writing something that never

01:36:27.100 gets published, and you're not

01:36:28.840 punished in terms of promotion

01:36:30.360 to tenure, right?

01:36:31.940 But anyway, what then happened

01:36:33.720 is that somebody inside the

01:36:35.680 Atlantic who was actually

01:36:38.780 involved in the original

01:36:40.080 commissioning of the article

01:36:41.800 gave a copy to a very prominent

01:36:44.700 academic who had contacts,

01:36:51.440 close contacts at the London

01:36:52.840 Review of Books.

01:36:54.660 And that academic, who I knew

01:36:56.860 very well, sent me a note and

01:36:59.100 said that Mary Kay Wilmers, he

01:37:01.080 said, I got a whole of your

01:37:02.840 manuscript, and I sent it to

01:37:05.700 Mary Kay Wilmers at the London

01:37:07.900 Review of Books, and she'd be

01:37:09.660 very interested in publishing it.

01:37:12.740 And so I then, I remember I was in

01:37:15.940 Heidelberg, Germany.

01:37:16.800 I called up Mary Kay, and she

01:37:19.780 published it, thankfully.

01:37:21.380 It was like a bomb, it was like a

01:37:23.360 bomb went off, I'll remember that,

01:37:24.940 I remember that so vividly.

01:37:27.280 So the piece, The Atlantic

01:37:28.640 Kilt, comes out in the London

01:37:30.100 Review of Books, what's the

01:37:31.020 thesis of the piece, if you could

01:37:32.060 just sum it up for people who

01:37:33.020 didn't read it?

01:37:33.940 Well, the argument basically has

01:37:36.420 four parts to it.

01:37:37.700 The first says that the United

01:37:39.360 States has this special

01:37:40.660 relationship with Israel.

01:37:42.800 It's unparalleled in history.

01:37:44.700 We give Israel unconditional

01:37:46.560 support, huge amounts of military

01:37:49.940 and economic aid.

01:37:51.340 That's the first part.

01:37:52.820 Then the second part says it's not

01:37:55.000 for strategic reasons that we do

01:37:57.800 this.

01:37:59.060 Then the third part is...

01:38:00.720 Can you explain what that means?

01:38:03.040 It's not in the American national 0.89

01:38:04.740 interest.

01:38:05.600 In other words, from a

01:38:07.940 geopolitical point of view, right?

01:38:10.960 Because Israel and the United States 0.94

01:38:12.840 sometime have different interests,

01:38:15.260 it makes no sense for us to support

01:38:18.160 Israel unconditionally.

01:38:19.760 We should support Israel when its

01:38:21.480 interests reflect our interests,

01:38:23.220 but otherwise not.

01:38:24.680 But that's not the case.

01:38:26.320 So that's another way of saying what

01:38:27.940 we're doing is not in our strategic

01:38:29.780 interest.

01:38:31.120 Okay.

01:38:32.420 Third part is it's not in our moral

01:38:35.260 interest, because when you look at

01:38:37.120 what the Israelis are doing to the 1.00

01:38:39.520 Palestinians, this violates basic 1.00

01:38:43.140 American precepts, liberal

01:38:45.260 precepts, right?

01:38:47.020 So from a moral point of view,

01:38:50.040 what's happening in Israel doesn't

01:38:52.140 make sense.

01:38:53.000 So then the fourth part deals with

01:38:54.960 the question of why we do this.

01:38:56.420 Right.

01:38:57.040 Fair question.

01:38:58.380 Right.

01:38:58.560 If we don't do it for strategic

01:38:59.800 reasons, we don't do it for moral

01:39:01.320 reasons, why do we do it?

01:39:02.960 And the answer is the lobby.

01:39:05.100 So that's the story.

01:39:07.440 The lobby.

01:39:08.000 And the lobby is a very large,

01:39:13.420 complex, informal organization of

01:39:16.900 which AIPAC is a part, but not the

01:39:19.700 total.

01:39:20.740 Absolutely.

01:39:22.040 And then you describe how that works.

01:39:24.480 Yeah.

01:39:24.740 It's very important to emphasize.

01:39:27.200 It's a loose coalition of individuals

01:39:31.220 and organizations like AIPAC, the

01:39:34.760 Anti-Defamation League, and so forth

01:39:37.160 and so on, that work overtime to

01:39:40.640 support Israel.

01:39:41.780 Loosely coordinated.

01:39:43.060 I think your description was right

01:39:44.440 on the money.

01:39:45.340 Very important to understand, it is

01:39:47.460 not a Jewish lobby.

01:39:49.740 And it is not a Jewish lobby because 0.67

01:39:52.340 many Jews don't care much about

01:39:54.860 Israel.

01:39:55.680 And many Jews are opposed to what

01:39:58.140 Israel or the Israel lobby is doing.

01:40:00.900 Including many religious Jews, Torah 0.92

01:40:02.800 Jews, sincere, sincerely Jewish

01:40:06.840 Jews, disagree.

01:40:08.320 I know some, so I know.

01:40:09.460 Absolutely.

01:40:10.160 There are a large number of Jews who

01:40:11.760 are anti-Zionists.

01:40:13.040 I'm aware.

01:40:13.660 Right?

01:40:14.160 So you're exactly right.

01:40:15.760 So it's not a Jewish lobby for that

01:40:18.580 reason, but also there are the

01:40:20.740 Christian Zionists. 0.94

01:40:22.140 Yes.

01:40:22.480 Who are a core element of that lobby.

01:40:25.460 I've noticed.

01:40:26.400 You know, Christians United for

01:40:28.240 Israel, for example.

01:40:30.000 So that's why we call it the Israel 0.98

01:40:32.180 lobby.

01:40:32.580 And what explains the enthusiasm of

01:40:37.660 Christian groups for policies that

01:40:40.600 kill Christians in the Middle East? 0.77

01:40:42.800 Well, they have this belief that 0.99

01:40:46.140 until Israel controls all of greater 0.99

01:40:51.760 Israel, right, it gets back all the 0.99

01:40:54.640 territory that is rightfully theirs, 1.00

01:41:00.340 you won't have the second coming.

01:41:04.180 So they are deeply committed, these

01:41:08.020 Christian Zionists, to supporting

01:41:09.900 Israel's conquests and supporting 0.99

01:41:12.940 Israeli expansion for religious

01:41:15.720 reasons.

01:41:16.460 And are there defined borders that when

01:41:19.640 reached will trigger the second coming?

01:41:21.640 No.

01:41:22.440 No.

01:41:22.840 When we say greater Israel, do we have 0.92

01:41:24.760 a clear map in mind of what that will

01:41:26.540 mean?

01:41:27.020 No.

01:41:27.160 Could mean?

01:41:27.680 No.

01:41:27.820 Whenever you talk about greater Israel,

01:41:29.940 there's hardly ever a real map in mind.

01:41:32.840 I talk about it in terms of the

01:41:34.440 occupied territories plus green line

01:41:36.360 Israel.

01:41:37.240 But obviously the Israelis themselves,

01:41:39.640 most Israelis, I think, have a bigger 0.99

01:41:43.320 map in mind.

01:41:45.820 Do we know where that ends?

01:41:46.920 I mean, it doesn't go to Cairo, I assume.

01:41:49.600 No.

01:41:50.160 No.

01:41:50.520 I think the Sinai, what they take of

01:41:53.160 Egypt, I think, if they can, will be 1.00

01:41:56.020 the Sinai.

01:41:57.600 And I don't think they would take all

01:41:59.620 of Syria or all of Lebanon, but they

01:42:02.140 would take big chunks of the south of

01:42:04.600 those two countries.

01:42:07.540 But the idea behind the Christian Zionists 0.97

01:42:11.280 is that to facilitate the second coming,

01:42:14.360 you know, for religious reasons, we should

01:42:16.840 support Israel.

01:42:17.740 But this does, as you say, cut against the

01:42:21.560 fact that the Israelis oftentimes treat 0.82

01:42:25.520 Christians as badly as they do Muslims. 1.00

01:42:29.600 There was recently a case where they bombed a 0.99

01:42:32.700 Catholic church in northern Gaza.

01:42:35.440 And Trump was infuriated when he heard this.

01:42:38.520 And he called up Netanyahu and told him, this is

01:42:41.540 recently, like within the past two weeks, told

01:42:44.560 Netanyahu that he had to apologize.

01:42:47.880 And the Pope even spoke out on this.

01:42:50.740 But even there, the criticism is quite muted.

01:42:53.780 Because again, hardly anybody in the West really

01:42:56.800 criticizes Israel in a meaningful way.

01:42:59.360 It is just a little bit odd that you could, on

01:43:01.500 Christian grounds, support the bombing of a 1.00

01:43:03.420 Christian church. 0.62

01:43:05.340 I mean, there are lots of theological differences

01:43:07.080 between sex and Christianity.

01:43:08.420 But if you're getting to the point like where Mike

01:43:10.400 Johnson, the Speaker of the House, is where

01:43:11.900 you think Jesus is commanding you to support the

01:43:14.800 murder of Christians, you don't need to be like a 1.00

01:43:18.460 theologian to think, maybe I've gone off course. 0.94

01:43:21.660 No.

01:43:22.500 Yeah.

01:43:23.620 You're not going to get any argument from me on

01:43:25.560 that.

01:43:26.360 Yeah.

01:43:27.240 So where does it go from here?

01:43:30.360 Now that things that, you know, everyone was afraid to

01:43:34.300 talk about any of this to the extent that people

01:43:35.780 understood it because they don't want to be called

01:43:37.360 names and because those names are as horrible to be

01:43:41.020 called that.

01:43:41.540 And it's almost, sometimes it's true, but for most

01:43:44.800 people, it's not true at all.

01:43:46.520 They're not hateful.

01:43:47.800 That's not why they have these views.

01:43:49.140 So once those slurs lose their power, as I think they

01:43:53.020 quickly are in the same way the word racist lost its

01:43:55.480 power from overuse.

01:43:57.100 Like, where are we?

01:43:58.660 What, where do we, what happens next?

01:44:01.360 It's hard to tell a happy story, but here's how I think

01:44:04.180 about it.

01:44:04.680 Uh, the first question you want to ask yourself is what are

01:44:07.860 the Israelis likely to do moving forward?

01:44:11.540 In other words, if the Israelis all of a sudden got 0.88

01:44:13.780 reasonable, uh, a lot of these problems would go away, but

01:44:18.620 there is no sign the Israelis are going to get more 0.99

01:44:22.340 reasonable.

01:44:23.200 If anything, the political center of gravity is moving

01:44:27.380 further and further to the right in Israel as the years go

01:44:31.180 by.

01:44:32.300 So Israeli behavior in the Middle East, if anything, is

01:44:37.000 likely to be even more aggressive and more offensive to

01:44:41.800 people around the world.

01:44:44.060 So what does that mean here in the United States?

01:44:47.700 It means that the lobby is going to have to work even harder

01:44:53.160 than it's now working.

01:44:55.000 And again, you want to remember the lobby is now out in the

01:44:57.120 open and it's engaging in smash mouth politics, but it's

01:45:01.040 going to have to work harder.

01:45:03.060 Now you say to yourself.

01:45:03.960 Most vicious people I've ever dealt with ever.

01:45:06.220 Yeah.

01:45:06.720 Yeah.

01:45:07.020 Anybody who's dealt with them and I've dealt with them for

01:45:09.660 longer than you have understands full well what you're

01:45:12.700 talking about.

01:45:13.380 But see, here's the problem, Tucker.

01:45:15.540 The problem is that support among younger people for Israel is

01:45:21.320 much weaker than it is among older people.

01:45:24.800 Including Jews. 0.88

01:45:26.080 Including Jews. 0.88

01:45:27.000 Yes.

01:45:27.460 Yes.

01:45:27.680 Very important to emphasize that.

01:45:29.880 Very important.

01:45:31.700 So the problem is that inside of American society, you're moving

01:45:37.000 towards a situation where increasing numbers of people in the

01:45:42.380 body politic are critical of Israel.

01:45:45.600 Extremely critical of Israel because older people are dying off and 1.00

01:45:48.920 those younger people are turning into older people.

01:45:51.920 So the body populace in the United States is going to be more critical of

01:45:56.480 Israel over time, not less critical.

01:45:59.300 At the same time, Israel continues to behave that way.

01:46:02.780 And the question is, how long can we go on with the lobby operating out in the

01:46:10.080 open and engaging in smash mouth politics?

01:46:12.680 Attacking Americans in the most vicious way who have no animus toward anyone but just want

01:46:21.960 to help their own country, they're somehow criminals?

01:46:24.840 Like that can't go on long. 1.00

01:46:27.660 That's too stupid to work over time. 1.00

01:46:30.700 No? 1.00

01:46:31.520 I agree.

01:46:32.240 Look at what's happening on campuses, right?

01:46:35.480 Here you have these students out there protesting.

01:46:38.560 Protesting a genocide, right?

01:46:40.520 Many of the students who are out there protesting are Jewish.

01:46:44.820 This cannot be emphasized enough.

01:46:46.880 Many of them are Jewish. 0.78

01:46:48.980 And all of a sudden, they're turned into raving anti-Semites. 0.82

01:46:53.900 This is all about anti-Semitism. 0.70

01:46:55.740 It has nothing to do with the genocide that's taking place in Palestine.

01:47:02.380 This is crazy, right?

01:47:05.300 And I talk to people on campuses.

01:47:08.960 Everybody understands this.

01:47:10.680 Everybody understands that this has nothing to do with anti-Semitism.

01:47:15.140 I've been in academia for decades.

01:47:19.380 I've been at the University of Chicago for 44 years.

01:47:23.320 Before October 7th, nobody at Chicago or Harvard talked about an anti-Semitism problem.

01:47:29.980 It was just unheard of.

01:47:31.160 Huge numbers of administrators, including provosts and presidents, were Jewish.

01:47:36.940 Huge numbers of deans and faculty members were Jewish.

01:47:40.520 Huge numbers of students, graduate and undergraduate, were Jewish.

01:47:44.320 This is a wonderful thing.

01:47:45.860 Nobody was ever critical of it.

01:47:48.500 Was there an anti-Semitism problem?

01:47:50.900 I never heard about it.

01:47:52.320 And I don't know anybody who was talking about it.

01:47:55.480 But all of a sudden, after October 7th, what we discover is that these college campuses are hotbeds of anti-Semitism.

01:48:03.320 This makes no sense at all.

01:48:05.740 Because, of course, they were not hotbeds of anti-Semitism.

01:48:09.080 What they were were hotbeds of criticism of Israel and what it was doing to the Palestinians.

01:48:14.460 But you can't say that.

01:48:17.620 Why?

01:48:18.020 Because you are, in effect, bringing attention to the genocide that's taking place in Gaza.

01:48:28.540 And that is unacceptable.

01:48:31.860 I mean, newspapers like the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, they never even used the word genocide or anything approximating that.

01:48:39.020 It's just verboten.

01:48:40.080 And the idea is to make Israel look like, if anything, it's the victim. 0.71

01:48:45.560 That's the Wall Street Journal's principal mission, right?

01:48:48.720 To make Israel look like it's the victim. 0.87

01:48:50.680 The Wall Street Journal is so discredited as a newspaper.

01:48:53.280 It's like, I'd rather read The Guardian.

01:48:57.320 I mean, I'd rather read anything other than The Wall Street Journal.

01:49:00.040 Well, I like to argue that The Wall Street Journal is two newspapers in one.

01:49:04.340 The news and then the opinion.

01:49:07.280 It's all been corrupted.

01:49:08.480 It changed leadership, and it's just the whole thing is total.

01:49:11.420 I know some great people who work there still, and they're honest people.

01:49:16.840 But the paper is the most dishonest, I would say, of all papers.

01:49:20.620 That's just my view.

01:49:21.700 And I used to write for them, so.

01:49:23.160 Well, you'll get no argument from me.

01:49:25.360 As bad as the New York Times and Washington Post are, they pale in comparison to The Wall Street Journal.

01:49:29.880 I totally agree.

01:49:31.000 And at least the New York Times and especially the Washington Post are just like liberal papers.

01:49:35.800 Okay, there's Democratic Party papers.

01:49:36.960 I know exactly what you are.

01:49:38.840 I'm not like The Guardian, just a left-wing paper, socialist paper.

01:49:41.820 I'm not shocked by anything.

01:49:43.220 They're pretty upfront about it.

01:49:45.320 The Wall Street Journal is uniquely offensive to me because of the deception involved.

01:49:51.100 They pretend to be one thing, but they're very much not that thing.

01:49:53.640 They're something entirely different.

01:49:54.860 And they're stealthy and incredibly dishonest. 0.97

01:49:59.020 And I look forward to their demise with unchristian enthusiasm. 1.00

01:50:04.720 Excuse me.

01:50:05.540 But anyway, can I just ask you a question I should have asked before?

01:50:08.760 Or you have this population of over 2 million people.

01:50:12.880 How many remain in Gaza now?

01:50:14.420 Do we know?

01:50:16.280 There's no news coverage allowed, so we don't, I guess maybe we don't know, but.

01:50:19.440 Well, there are 2.3 million to start.

01:50:22.380 Yes, to start.

01:50:22.960 That's the approximate number who are there.

01:50:28.000 It appears that some have gotten out.

01:50:31.660 It's hard to gauge how many.

01:50:35.260 There was one person who told me he thought that about 100,000 had gotten out.

01:50:40.360 Another person told me 50,000.

01:50:42.380 I'm not sure.

01:50:43.380 But not a million.

01:50:44.700 Oh, no, no, no, no.

01:50:45.780 The question is how many have been killed.

01:50:47.540 Right.

01:50:48.180 Do we have any idea?

01:50:49.900 Not really.

01:50:50.580 They're, you know, the estimates are around 60 million.

01:50:56.340 I mean, 60 million, excuse me, 60,000.

01:50:59.620 Do you think it's weird that in 2025 we can measure everything from your heart rate to sunspots

01:51:06.360 that we don't know how many people were killed in Russia, Ukraine, or Palestine?

01:51:12.560 We can't even get, I've never met anyone who can give me a hard number on Russian casualties,

01:51:16.780 Ukrainian casualties, or dead Palestinians in Gaza.

01:51:21.240 That's weird.

01:51:22.500 It's weird.

01:51:23.020 There are two different cases.

01:51:25.420 I mean, the Ukrainians have a deep-seated interest, for example, in not revealing how many people have been killed. 0.90

01:51:33.940 Of course, and so do the Russians, by the way. 0.83

01:51:36.460 Yeah.

01:51:36.700 And with regard to the case of Israel-Palestine, the real problem here is that so many people are buried.

01:51:50.620 They're missing.

01:51:51.480 There's a study that somebody did recently.

01:51:55.820 It was a legitimate study that said that they believe, or the study concludes, that there are about 400,000 missing people in Gaza.

01:52:04.600 400,000?

01:52:05.860 400,000, yeah.

01:52:06.780 Now, I'm not saying that's true.

01:52:08.700 I'm just saying that there are obviously lots of missing people, right?

01:52:15.140 Well, if you look at what the Israelis have done in Israel, excuse me, what the Israelis have done in Gaza, 0.85

01:52:21.820 I wouldn't be surprised if the number is, you know, 400,000 dead.

01:52:28.180 But who knows?

01:52:30.160 But I think, you know, 60,000, roughly 60,000 is the number that lots of people use on debt.

01:52:38.340 So, of the remaining, you know, probably less than 2 million, but close to 2 million people, that's a lot of people, where do they go?

01:52:49.700 I mean, this is a great question.

01:52:51.600 Can there actually be in 2025 a transfer of people like that?

01:52:57.840 I mean, the Second World War wasn't that long ago.

01:53:00.580 Like, people have memories or impressions of what it looks like to move that many people.

01:53:06.440 It's just, that's not good.

01:53:08.340 Well, the news reports say that the Israelis and the Americans are talking to the Libyans and the Ethiopians and the Indonesians about accepting the Palestinians,

01:53:23.260 or at least a substantial portion of that, let's say 2 million that are left.

01:53:28.660 But if they actually tried that, I mean, that's so grotesque that you'd think, I mean, wouldn't the world just blow up if they tried to do that?

01:53:41.640 Move hundreds of thousands of people against their will from one, from their land, which they've been on for thousands of years,

01:53:49.780 into some foreign country and just like, that's cool, we're doing this, it's for their safety.

01:53:53.620 Could you actually do that?

01:53:57.300 Well, I didn't actually think that the Israelis could execute a genocide in Gaza.

01:54:02.940 I didn't think they'd be able to do what they have done since October 7th.

01:54:06.900 I guess there are no rules.

01:54:07.960 You just do what you can do.

01:54:08.980 Yeah, we're at a point where you want to say that that is a possibility.

01:54:17.120 I'm like you.

01:54:17.940 I find it hard to imagine.

01:54:19.600 I'm sickened by the whole process, the whole thing.

01:54:23.220 I just...

01:54:23.900 And what, they all get on boats or something?

01:54:25.780 And like, people have iPhones.

01:54:27.240 They can, I mean...

01:54:28.820 Well, also, I think there'll be resistance, right?

01:54:31.780 I mean, Hamas is still there.

01:54:34.020 The Israelis have not defeated Hamas, right? 0.98

01:54:37.040 Yeah, I mean...

01:54:38.520 So, but your question is a great one.

01:54:41.620 The question is, where do we end up here?

01:54:43.980 What the hell?

01:54:45.320 Where do we end up?

01:54:46.540 You know, just to go back a bit, when the war starts on October 7th,

01:54:51.000 and then the fighting goes on into 2024,

01:54:55.020 the Israeli military is asking Netanyahu to tell them what the final political plan is.

01:55:05.060 In other words, once the war ends, what's the plan for dealing with the Palestinians? 1.00

01:55:11.420 And Netanyahu refuses to give the military a plan.

01:55:16.580 And the military says we can't...

01:55:18.120 His own military.

01:55:19.060 His own military, the IDF.

01:55:20.640 The military says that we can't wage the campaign without knowing what the end game is.

01:55:27.460 Yeah.

01:55:27.960 Right, okay.

01:55:28.620 But Netanyahu won't tell them what the end game is,

01:55:32.200 because the end game is to drive all the Palestinians out.

01:55:35.060 The reason that Netanyahu has no plan, right,

01:55:38.980 for dealing with the Palestinians at the end of the fighting

01:55:41.860 is because he expects them to all be gone, okay?

01:55:46.260 Now, what we're saying here is that hasn't happened.

01:55:49.700 It's hard to imagine that happening, right?

01:55:52.460 And although the Israelis have been murdering huge numbers of Palestinians,

01:55:56.500 at some point, a substantial number are going to be left.

01:56:00.220 So the question is, what does that look like?

01:56:03.020 And they probably won't be more moderate by that point.

01:56:06.540 No, but what they're going to end up in is a giant ghetto, right?

01:56:10.820 Or a concentration camp. 0.56

01:56:12.360 That's what they're building now.

01:56:14.300 And again, this gets back to our earlier discussion of what this means

01:56:18.200 for Israel's reputation in the United States and in the West more generally.

01:56:22.000 You're going to build a ghetto. 0.95

01:56:23.580 You're going to put, you know, two million people in a ghetto 0.95

01:56:26.700 and continue to starve them?

01:56:29.340 Is this sustainable?

01:56:32.580 It does tend to affect your moral authority when you do that.

01:56:36.820 I also think it has a terribly corrupting influence on your society at large.

01:56:42.800 I think once this war comes to a conclusion,

01:56:47.040 hopefully that will be sooner rather than later,

01:56:49.060 and the Israelis take stock of what they have done,

01:56:53.260 this is going to have a deeply corrosive effect.

01:56:57.460 Well, yeah, because, I mean,

01:56:58.840 the things that are going on to Jewish Israelis

01:57:03.560 at the hands of their own government right now,

01:57:05.960 I'm not an expert on Israel,

01:57:07.800 but I've been multiple times,

01:57:10.200 and I've always really loved it.

01:57:12.120 I mean, it's such an amazing place.

01:57:14.140 But it was liberal in a fundamental way.

01:57:17.800 That's why I always liked it.

01:57:19.520 I mean, not liberal like Democratic Party liberal,

01:57:21.380 but just like civil liberties liberal.

01:57:23.420 If you were Jewish.

01:57:24.660 Of course.

01:57:25.560 That's a totally fair point

01:57:27.480 that kind of went over my head on my trips there,

01:57:30.180 but you're absolutely right.

01:57:32.140 And it was designed to go over your head.

01:57:34.040 And it did.

01:57:34.980 You're absolutely right.

01:57:35.680 But my point is,

01:57:38.760 the things that are happening now

01:57:40.340 to Israeli citizens are so shocking to me

01:57:43.400 that total elimination of free speech.

01:57:46.180 You say certain things, you can go right to jail.

01:57:48.560 Question like,

01:57:49.360 what the hell happened on October 7th?

01:57:50.740 Which is a completely fair question.

01:57:52.580 In any free society, that should be allowed.

01:57:55.160 Not allowed.

01:57:57.280 Banning people from leaving the country?

01:57:59.920 Your right to travel,

01:58:01.480 especially to leave,

01:58:02.840 is a foundational right.

01:58:04.560 They're telling Israeli citizens,

01:58:05.500 you're not allowed to leave?

01:58:07.280 I don't know.

01:58:07.860 Why is that not a big story?

01:58:08.960 I don't really get it.

01:58:09.840 And then the treatment of Christians, 0.98

01:58:11.020 which is disgusting. 0.97

01:58:14.680 Those are all signs that the society

01:58:16.480 is becoming illiberal,

01:58:18.200 really is becoming authoritarian.

01:58:19.860 Very, I mean, that's authoritarian.

01:58:20.980 You're not allowed to leave the country.

01:58:22.340 You can't say what you think.

01:58:24.120 That's not a free country.

01:58:25.460 And those are all downstream

01:58:27.200 of the military response post October 7th.

01:58:30.240 So I think it makes your point.

01:58:32.080 This is corrupting to their society

01:58:34.040 as this stuff always is.

01:58:35.500 9-11 was totally corrupting to our society.

01:58:39.280 I agree.

01:58:40.340 Just to add a couple points to that,

01:58:42.820 the Israeli military has a huge PTSD problem.

01:58:47.980 Oh, I bet.

01:58:49.340 Really?

01:58:49.860 Yeah, yeah.

01:58:50.880 And the Jerusalem Post had a piece,

01:58:53.780 I think it was the Jerusalem Post,

01:58:55.100 had a piece the other day

01:58:56.140 that said there have been five suicides

01:58:58.700 during the past two weeks.

01:59:01.880 So they're having a significant problem with suicide,

01:59:05.580 significant problem with PTSD.

01:59:07.080 And they're having huge problems

01:59:10.020 getting reservists to report for duty.

01:59:13.540 I bet.

01:59:14.760 Because the Israeli military

01:59:16.520 is heavily dependent on reservists.

01:59:19.020 Yes.

01:59:19.260 And the reservists have basically had it.

01:59:22.360 And so this war is having a corrosive effect.

01:59:25.460 And the thing you want to understand

01:59:26.660 is there's no end in sight.

01:59:29.120 There really isn't.

01:59:30.120 Yeah.

01:59:30.960 And now they're in southern Lebanon.

01:59:32.880 Now they're in southern Syria.

01:59:34.460 But didn't the United States shut this down tomorrow?

01:59:36.360 Like not one more dollar for this stuff.

01:59:38.720 You blew up a church?

01:59:39.980 No.

01:59:40.220 No more money for you.

01:59:41.440 The fact that the Israelis are so dependent on us, 1.00

01:59:46.000 as we were talking about before,

01:59:47.860 and we were just, you know,

01:59:49.220 hitting on the tip of the iceberg,

01:59:50.880 they are so dependent on us,

01:59:52.860 means we have tremendous coercive leverage over them.

01:59:55.680 Well, this is why the lobby has to work so hard, right?

01:59:59.940 We have tremendous coercive leverage on them.

02:00:02.540 So we could shut this down.

02:00:04.520 We could fundamentally-

02:00:05.780 Like this afternoon.

02:00:07.280 I don't want to go that far,

02:00:08.700 but we'd need a couple of days, but-

02:00:10.800 Yeah, no more money for you if you do one more.

02:00:13.280 Well, we could also punish them in significant ways.

02:00:16.820 We could easily bring Israel to its knees. 0.95

02:00:19.280 And by the way, I have long argued

02:00:21.260 that that would be in Israel's interest.

02:00:23.560 It is not in Israel's interest. 0.94

02:00:25.680 Of course it would.

02:00:26.220 It is not in the interest of Jews around the world 1.00

02:00:29.440 for this craziness to continue.

02:00:31.920 This craziness should end right away

02:00:33.960 for the good of Israel, for the good of Jews,

02:00:36.000 for the good of the United States.

02:00:37.360 It makes no sense at all.

02:00:39.880 To what extent is this Netanyahu?

02:00:45.580 Like you often see him singled out as, you know,

02:00:48.620 the guy who's pushing this, whose vision this is.

02:00:52.280 If Netanyahu retired tomorrow, would this continue?

02:00:55.680 The fact is that he is not unrepresentative

02:01:02.720 of the larger society.

02:01:04.580 There are surely people on, let's use the word left

02:01:07.500 for lack of a better term.

02:01:09.400 There are certainly people on the left

02:01:11.380 who oppose what he's doing

02:01:12.940 and would be more amenable to a political solution.

02:01:16.020 But their numbers are small and dwindling.

02:01:18.700 And I think the overwhelming majority of Israelis

02:01:23.780 support Netanyahu.

02:01:25.120 That's why he's still in office, despite the fact

02:01:27.200 he was responsible for what happened on October 7th.

02:01:30.980 Of course.

02:01:31.520 He was in charge.

02:01:32.600 The buck is supposed to stop at his desk,

02:01:34.940 but he's not been held accountable

02:01:36.760 because the Israelis want him in charge.

02:01:40.600 So it's not like, you know, he's the odd man out here.

02:01:45.500 Furthermore, if you look at the political spectrum

02:01:49.280 in Israel, there are many people

02:01:52.620 who are to the right of him.

02:01:54.500 Yes.

02:01:54.820 Who are growing in political importance.

02:01:57.360 When you and I were young, people like Smoltrich, right?

02:02:00.640 And Ben Gavir, right?

02:02:02.200 Who are far to the right of Netanyahu.

02:02:04.780 You know.

02:02:05.380 Well, there weren't that many of them,

02:02:07.040 or at least that I was, I mean, again,

02:02:08.640 I'm not an expert, I don't speak Hebrew,

02:02:09.980 but I mean, I've, you know, been around it a lot.

02:02:12.380 And I felt like, again,

02:02:13.840 it was a pretty liberal European type society.

02:02:16.860 That was my impression of it.

02:02:19.580 Well, those days are gone.

02:02:20.720 Yes.

02:02:21.120 No, I know.

02:02:21.520 Those days are gone.

02:02:22.600 And my point to you is it's only going to get worse.

02:02:25.100 So the argument that Netanyahu is the problem,

02:02:28.220 it's an argument that many liberal Jews 0.94

02:02:30.120 here in the United States like to make the way,

02:02:32.820 like to make,

02:02:33.800 if only we can get rid of Netanyahu,

02:02:36.840 our troubles will go away

02:02:38.260 and we'll get some sort of moderate leadership

02:02:40.440 and work out of modus vivendi with the United States.

02:02:46.360 But I don't think that's going to happen.

02:02:48.380 What happens on the Temple Mount, do you think?

02:02:52.300 So there's a,

02:02:53.300 the second temple was obviously built

02:02:54.940 on the Mount in Jerusalem.

02:02:56.260 It was knocked down by the Romans in AD 70.

02:03:00.540 And a few hundred years later,

02:03:03.320 the Muslims built the third holiest site in Islam,

02:03:06.920 the Al-Aqsa Mosque there.

02:03:08.320 And beneath it is the foundation of the temple.

02:03:10.480 That's the Western wall.

02:03:11.720 So that's the geography.

02:03:12.440 But there is this push to rebuild the third temple,

02:03:18.320 but there's a mosque on the site.

02:03:20.660 My sense is that's coming to a head.

02:03:24.420 Do you have any feeling about that?

02:03:26.620 I think you're right.

02:03:27.760 I think the further right Israel moves, 0.96

02:03:32.400 or the more hawkish it becomes,

02:03:35.020 the more likely it is that will come to a head.

02:03:38.680 There's no question that certainly the religious right in Israel

02:03:44.440 is deeply committed to building a third temple.

02:03:48.240 But you'd have to blow up the mosque to do it. 1.00

02:03:53.800 Yes.

02:03:54.980 And what would happen if someone blew up

02:03:57.220 the third holiest site in Islam in the middle of Jerusalem?

02:04:01.100 Well, the Israelis are very powerful 1.00

02:04:04.820 vis-a-vis the Palestinian population.

02:04:08.680 And they would, I guess,

02:04:12.200 go to great lengths to suppress any insurrection. 0.98

02:04:16.740 And if they had to kill lots of people, 0.99

02:04:18.460 they'd kill lots of people. 1.00

02:04:19.560 Look at what they're doing in Gaza. 0.99

02:04:21.240 The Israelis are incredibly ruthless. 1.00

02:04:24.100 There's just no question about that. 0.99

02:04:26.260 And they believe that Palestinians are subhumans, 0.98

02:04:30.980 two-legged animals, grasshoppers. 0.96

02:04:34.160 They use those kind of words.

02:04:36.220 And you take what they've been doing in Gaza.

02:04:39.540 It's easy to imagine them doing horrible things

02:04:42.900 to the Palestinians if they were to rise up

02:04:45.960 over what's happening with regard to the Temple Mount.

02:04:49.980 And in terms of the Jordanians or the Egyptians

02:04:53.200 or the Saudis, are they going to do anything?

02:04:55.860 I doubt it.

02:04:56.840 I mean, they'll make a lot of noise verbally,

02:04:59.100 but in terms of actually doing anything to Israel.

02:05:02.820 The Israelis basically calculate in all these instances 0.98

02:05:06.360 that what they can do is horrible things.

02:05:08.600 And then with the passage of time, people will forget.

02:05:11.340 And not only will they forget,

02:05:12.780 but we'll go to great lengths to help them forget.

02:05:15.240 You know, we'll rewrite the history.

02:05:16.800 That's the idea.

02:05:17.620 So I think that your assessment of what we should expect

02:05:23.600 with the Temple Mount is probably correct.

02:05:25.920 Feels like that's a, I mean, that's a, you know,

02:05:29.080 there are a billion Muslims, so.

02:05:32.340 But they have a huge collective action problem.

02:05:35.520 What are those billion Muslims going to do? 1.00

02:05:38.500 I mean, they can't organize themselves into armored divisions

02:05:41.720 and strike into Israel. 0.50

02:05:43.400 No, but they could, I mean, I think we learned from 9-11,

02:05:45.980 a small group of determined people can have a big effect on events.

02:05:50.240 Oh, yeah.

02:05:50.760 Well, that's all coming too, right?

02:05:53.240 I mean, this is one of the problems

02:05:54.740 that many Western Jews worry about.

02:05:58.940 You know, payback is going to come,

02:06:00.860 not in the form of attacks on Israel,

02:06:03.060 but in the form of attacks on Western Jews

02:06:06.260 in places like the United States or Europe.

02:06:10.260 And I think that is a real possibility.

02:06:13.360 Let's hope it doesn't happen.

02:06:14.520 But the number of people who are in the Arab and Islamic world

02:06:20.120 who are absolutely enraged by what is going on in Gaza

02:06:24.520 is not to be underestimated.

02:06:26.840 And they have a second strike capability, as you point out.

02:06:30.680 You know, I was talking about building armored divisions. 0.99

02:06:32.820 That's foolish. 0.97

02:06:33.520 They're not going to build armored divisions, 0.99

02:06:35.060 but there are other ways to deal with this.

02:06:37.600 Again, you want to go back to 9-11.

02:06:39.520 This gets back to the whole question whether Israel is a strategic liability

02:06:45.120 or a strategic asset.

02:06:48.720 Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, who is the principal planner of 9-11,

02:06:53.760 now in Guantanamo, and Osama bin Laden,

02:06:57.540 both explicitly said that their principal reason

02:07:02.060 for attacking the United States on 9-11

02:07:04.760 was the United States' support of Israel's policies

02:07:08.960 against the Palestinians. 0.93

02:07:10.660 You just want to think about that.

02:07:11.900 The conventional wisdom in the United States

02:07:14.360 is that Israel had nothing to do with 9-11, 0.53

02:07:17.420 and these Muslims attacked us because they hate who we are. 0.99

02:07:22.620 Nothing could be further from the truth.

02:07:26.920 Osama bin Laden and KSM, again, have both explicitly said

02:07:32.500 that it was U.S. policy toward Israel that caused 9-11.

02:07:36.420 Why do you suppose that so many 9-11 documents are still classified

02:07:40.220 almost 25 years after the fact?

02:07:44.360 I don't know.

02:07:45.400 I mean, why are so many Jeffrey Epstein documents effectively classified?

02:07:51.960 Why are so many Kennedy assassination documents still not released?

02:07:57.400 Still not released. That's correct.

02:07:59.060 You know, you really do wonder.

02:08:00.460 They obviously have something to hide.

02:08:05.060 In most cases, it's very hard to divine what it is that they're trying to hide,

02:08:10.240 and that's certainly true with regard to 9-11.

02:08:13.600 But we just don't know.

02:08:16.860 We don't know.

02:08:17.780 And it does make everybody into a wacko thinking about it. 0.60

02:08:22.340 I mean, if you want to end so-called conspiracy theories,

02:08:25.240 tell the truth,

02:08:25.800 and then, you know, no one has to theorize, would be my view.

02:08:30.460 So you just, you have a piece out,

02:08:32.160 this is my last question to you.

02:08:33.380 Thank you for spending all this time.

02:08:36.140 You have a piece out that describes what you believe the world will look like in 50 years.

02:08:41.800 And I should say, just to toot your horn, since you're not going to do it,

02:08:45.000 that you've been right on some of the big, big, big questions,

02:08:47.300 and you've stood essentially alone in your field,

02:08:50.320 in your predictions that have been vindicated on them,

02:08:53.280 not just about the power of foreign lobbies,

02:08:56.000 but about China, about NATO.

02:08:58.600 And so I do think your opinion on this matters.

02:09:01.100 Can you just give us a sense of 10 years hence,

02:09:04.640 what's America's place in the world?

02:09:07.360 Well, I think if you look out 10 years,

02:09:10.080 even if you were to look out 20 or 30 years,

02:09:13.240 I think in all likelihood,

02:09:14.920 the system, the international system,

02:09:17.160 will continue to be dominated by three countries,

02:09:19.940 the United States, China, and Russia.

02:09:22.280 And I think the United States and China will remain 1.00

02:09:26.720 the two most powerful countries on the planet.

02:09:30.300 And the U.S.-China competition over the next 10 years,

02:09:33.400 and even beyond that,

02:09:34.740 will influence international politics more than any other relationship.

02:09:41.120 I think that once you begin to project out past 10, 20 years,

02:09:45.600 the United States' position vis-a-vis China,

02:09:49.660 I think will improve for demographic reasons.

02:09:53.040 I think the Chinese population is going to drop off 0.98

02:09:56.300 at a much more rapid rate than the American population.

02:10:00.980 And moreover, the Americans can rely on immigration to rectify the problem.

02:10:06.120 So if you look at population,

02:10:08.640 which is one of the two building blocks, population size,

02:10:12.820 one of the two building blocks of military power,

02:10:15.600 the other is wealth.

02:10:17.840 The United States, looking out 20, 30, 40 years,

02:10:21.880 looks like it's in quite good shape, right?

02:10:24.460 Now, what's happened since 2017,

02:10:30.760 and really even before that,

02:10:32.500 is that with the rise of China,

02:10:35.760 the United States lost its position as the unipole,

02:10:41.160 as the clearly dominant power in the international system.

02:10:45.540 And we now have a peer competitor.

02:10:47.380 So when people talk about American decline,

02:10:52.200 they're correct that we have had decline,

02:10:55.480 let's say since 2017,

02:10:57.540 when China became a great power,

02:10:59.420 although it started before that.

02:11:00.760 That's the second time you made reference to 2017

02:11:02.940 as the threshold for China.

02:11:04.340 What is the definition?

02:11:06.480 How does a country go from being a big power to a great power?

02:11:09.540 It develops enough military capability

02:11:11.960 to put up a serious fight

02:11:13.660 against the most powerful state in the system.

02:11:16.020 Thank you.

02:11:16.360 So you want to remember the two main building blocks

02:11:19.200 of military power are wealth and population size.

02:11:22.500 You take that wealth,

02:11:23.740 you take that population size,

02:11:25.600 and that's what allows you to build the powerful military.

02:11:28.440 That affects your position in the balance of power.

02:11:31.500 And remember when I talked about engagement,

02:11:33.620 we made China rich,

02:11:35.100 we made China wealthy.

02:11:36.840 So China always had that huge population.

02:11:39.720 And as a result of engagement

02:11:41.400 during the unipolar moment from roughly,

02:11:43.900 let's say 1992,

02:11:46.360 2002 to 2017,

02:11:48.000 we helped China get rich.

02:11:50.740 And that rich,

02:11:52.500 that wealth,

02:11:53.860 coupled with that population side,

02:11:55.900 China becomes a great power.

02:11:57.960 Okay.

02:11:58.320 So we are losing relative power

02:12:01.740 over that entire time period.

02:12:04.220 And that's when China then becomes a great power.

02:12:06.740 And we now have a competition

02:12:08.680 where the United States is still more powerful

02:12:10.960 than China overall.

02:12:12.840 But the Chinese are closing the gap.

02:12:15.720 So we're still losing relative power to the Chinese.

02:12:19.380 And I would bet over the next 10 years,

02:12:21.880 we will lose relative power.

02:12:24.260 Not a substantial amount,

02:12:26.240 but some.

02:12:26.760 But still,

02:12:28.460 the United States will probably remain 10 years from now,

02:12:31.900 the most powerful state in the system.

02:12:33.740 And the Chinese will be right behind us. 0.99

02:12:36.340 The Russians will remain the weakest 1.00

02:12:38.620 of those three great powers.

02:12:40.780 But if you project out,

02:12:42.400 you know,

02:12:42.640 30,

02:12:43.040 40 years,

02:12:43.940 that's when I think the United States

02:12:46.220 will widen the gap with China

02:12:48.460 because population-wise,

02:12:50.680 the Chinese population

02:12:52.260 as a result of the one-child policy

02:12:54.500 will decline significantly.

02:12:57.320 And our population size

02:12:59.620 without immigration 1.00

02:13:01.240 will not decline as significantly

02:13:03.460 as the Chinese population will. 0.83

02:13:05.700 But we also have immigration

02:13:07.220 as our ace in the hole.

02:13:08.680 So we can bring in immigrants 1.00

02:13:10.420 as we have done in the past.

02:13:12.760 And we will remain in quite good shape.

02:13:15.380 So I think the long-term future

02:13:17.440 for the United States

02:13:18.440 in terms of raw power

02:13:20.280 looks quite good.

02:13:23.020 That's not to say

02:13:23.880 our policies will be wise

02:13:25.540 because as you and I know,

02:13:27.620 the United States

02:13:28.520 has used that massive power

02:13:30.380 that it's had in the past

02:13:31.660 in oftentimes foolish ways.

02:13:34.060 Yeah.

02:13:34.200 And is that power worth having?

02:13:36.360 I mean,

02:13:36.840 I don't know.

02:13:37.780 It's more complicated than it sounds.

02:13:39.620 I mean,

02:13:39.900 do people's lives improve?

02:13:41.200 Which seems like an important measure.

02:13:43.200 Not the only measure,

02:13:44.040 but certainly one.

02:13:45.380 Well,

02:13:45.540 this is the realist in me,

02:13:47.280 Tucker.

02:13:48.160 In the international system,

02:13:49.440 in international politics,

02:13:50.820 because there's no higher authority

02:13:53.180 that can protect you

02:13:55.260 if you get into trouble,

02:13:56.860 it's very important to be powerful.

02:13:59.840 Right?

02:14:00.660 You can't dial 911

02:14:02.740 in the international system

02:14:04.800 and have someone come and rescue you.

02:14:07.540 And in a world

02:14:08.500 where another state

02:14:09.700 might be powerful

02:14:10.620 and might attack you,

02:14:11.880 it's very important

02:14:13.480 to be the most powerful state

02:14:16.140 in the system.

02:14:16.800 And the last thing

02:14:18.360 you want to do

02:14:19.040 is be weak.

02:14:20.380 You want to remember

02:14:20.860 the Chinese refer to the period

02:14:22.620 from the late 1840s

02:14:24.340 to the late 1940s

02:14:26.040 as the century

02:14:26.920 of national humiliation.

02:14:28.620 Yes,

02:14:28.860 it was too.

02:14:29.720 Yes.

02:14:30.180 And why did they suffer

02:14:31.700 a century

02:14:32.560 of national humiliation?

02:14:34.120 Because they were weak.

02:14:35.800 Because they were divided.

02:14:36.580 Right.

02:14:37.040 And remember,

02:14:37.540 we talked earlier in the show

02:14:38.740 about NATO expansion.

02:14:40.260 We talked about

02:14:41.000 why we continued

02:14:42.560 to push

02:14:43.220 and push 0.99

02:14:43.720 and push 0.99

02:14:44.240 even though the Russians 0.98

02:14:45.600 said it was unacceptable.

02:14:47.400 And I said to you,

02:14:48.420 we were going to shove it 0.99

02:14:49.560 down their throat. 0.98

02:14:50.700 And why we were going to 0.72

02:14:51.560 shove it down their throat?

02:14:52.640 Because we thought 0.97

02:14:53.720 they were weak.

02:14:55.380 You never want to be weak.

02:14:56.980 You want to be powerful.

02:14:58.680 The problem

02:14:59.480 with making that argument today,

02:15:02.320 for me to make that argument

02:15:03.780 to you

02:15:04.360 and to many people I know,

02:15:06.480 is that we all understand

02:15:08.400 that the United States

02:15:09.720 has been incredibly powerful

02:15:11.180 and it's used

02:15:12.940 that power

02:15:13.840 in foolish ways,

02:15:16.320 in ways 0.96

02:15:16.840 that don't make us happy.

02:15:18.920 And therefore,

02:15:19.600 the idea of having

02:15:20.540 all this power

02:15:21.540 leads us to think

02:15:22.840 or leads many people

02:15:23.820 to think

02:15:24.280 that we'll use

02:15:25.080 that power foolishly.

02:15:26.840 And I fully understand that.

02:15:29.020 But my argument is

02:15:30.480 you still

02:15:31.380 want to be powerful

02:15:32.780 just because

02:15:33.860 it's the best way

02:15:35.020 to survive

02:15:35.840 in the international system.

02:15:37.440 It's the way

02:15:38.020 to maximize

02:15:38.840 your security.

02:15:39.920 But hopefully,

02:15:41.600 you'll use

02:15:42.440 that power smartly.

02:15:44.220 Although,

02:15:45.020 given America's performance

02:15:46.640 in recent decades,

02:15:48.120 there's not a lot

02:15:48.860 of cause for hope.

02:15:49.900 Do we wind up

02:15:50.360 in a war with China

02:15:51.100 over Taiwan?

02:15:53.940 I think it's possible.

02:15:56.400 I don't think

02:15:57.820 it's likely

02:15:58.520 in the foreseeable future.

02:16:01.060 The problem is

02:16:02.460 it's an incredibly

02:16:03.340 difficult military

02:16:04.840 operation

02:16:05.600 for the Chinese

02:16:06.600 because it involves

02:16:07.820 an amphibious assault.

02:16:09.060 They have to go

02:16:10.200 across the Taiwan Strait,

02:16:12.220 which is a large

02:16:13.120 body of water.

02:16:14.480 And amphibious assaults

02:16:15.720 are very difficult.

02:16:17.040 And in all likelihood,

02:16:18.260 the Americans

02:16:18.780 will come

02:16:19.420 to the aid

02:16:20.380 of the Taiwanese.

02:16:22.500 The other thing is

02:16:23.640 the Taiwan,

02:16:25.080 I mean,

02:16:25.360 the Chinese,

02:16:26.020 unlike the Americans, 1.00

02:16:27.120 don't fight wars

02:16:28.120 all the time.

02:16:28.860 The last time

02:16:29.600 China fought a war

02:16:30.540 was in 1979.

02:16:32.420 Just think about that.

02:16:33.380 In Vietnam.

02:16:34.440 In Vietnam, yeah. 1.00

02:16:35.520 They were foolish 1.00

02:16:36.920 enough to follow 1.00

02:16:37.900 in our footsteps 0.99

02:16:39.100 and we were foolish 0.99

02:16:40.480 enough to follow 0.99

02:16:42.000 in the French footsteps 0.98

02:16:43.180 and go in there.

02:16:44.240 So they went in

02:16:44.900 in 79

02:16:45.480 and got whacked.

02:16:46.620 But they've not

02:16:47.280 fought a war

02:16:47.820 since then.

02:16:48.720 So they don't have

02:16:50.720 a highly

02:16:52.020 trained

02:16:53.280 military

02:16:55.200 that has lots

02:16:56.000 of combat experience

02:16:57.260 that would be

02:16:58.340 capable of launching

02:16:59.500 one of the most

02:17:00.620 difficult military

02:17:01.740 operations imaginable,

02:17:02.520 which is an amphibious

02:17:04.260 assault across

02:17:05.060 the Taiwan Strait

02:17:06.120 into the face

02:17:07.300 of resistance

02:17:07.900 from not only

02:17:08.640 the Taiwanese

02:17:09.260 but the Americans.

02:17:11.060 So I think

02:17:12.060 that

02:17:12.760 will

02:17:13.940 keep a lid

02:17:15.040 on things

02:17:15.680 for the foreseeable

02:17:16.760 future.

02:17:17.320 I don't think

02:17:17.860 the Chinese

02:17:18.580 will attack. 0.75

02:17:20.720 I think

02:17:21.360 that what

02:17:23.000 they'll wait for

02:17:23.880 is

02:17:24.720 the right moment

02:17:26.260 to hope

02:17:27.020 that the world

02:17:27.740 changes in ways

02:17:28.880 that makes it

02:17:29.480 feasible for them

02:17:30.420 to do it.

02:17:31.400 They're good at waiting.

02:17:32.520 They're good at waiting.

02:17:33.360 That is,

02:17:33.920 I think that's true.

02:17:35.120 So I don't think,

02:17:36.840 and I want to underline

02:17:37.800 I'm using the word 0.78

02:17:38.720 think.

02:17:40.440 The other point,

02:17:41.340 just very quickly,

02:17:42.500 we do live

02:17:43.340 in a nuclear world

02:17:44.340 and we have

02:17:45.360 nuclear weapons

02:17:46.060 and they have

02:17:46.520 nuclear weapons

02:17:47.480 and the incentive

02:17:48.380 for them

02:17:49.240 to avoid a war

02:17:50.320 with the United States

02:17:51.320 and for us

02:17:52.200 to avoid a war

02:17:52.980 with them

02:17:53.540 because of

02:17:54.520 nuclear weapons

02:17:55.340 is very great.

02:17:56.480 So that may

02:17:57.780 really put a

02:17:58.900 damper on things

02:17:59.800 if we ever get

02:18:00.820 into a serious

02:18:01.580 crisis.

02:18:03.520 Professor,

02:18:04.120 thank you

02:18:04.500 for spending

02:18:05.080 all this time.

02:18:05.680 That was

02:18:06.000 wonderful.

02:18:07.640 It's my pleasure,

02:18:08.440 Tucker.

02:18:08.740 Thanks very much

02:18:09.420 for having me

02:18:09.940 on the show.

02:18:10.800 Thank you

02:18:11.340 for doing this

02:18:12.920 and congratulations

02:18:13.720 on

02:18:14.420 being vindicated

02:18:16.380 after all these years.

02:18:17.900 That must be nice.

02:18:18.760 Whether you admit it

02:18:19.440 or not,

02:18:19.840 you have been.

02:18:20.440 So thank you.

02:18:21.580 I'm going to plead

02:18:22.220 the Fifth Amendment.

02:18:23.380 Thank you again.

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02:18:29.180 for watching us

02:18:29.820 on Spotify,

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02:18:33.240 good people.

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02:18:35.300 do us a favor,

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The Tucker Carlson Show - July 30, 2025

John Mearsheimer： The Palestinian Genocide and How the West Has Been Deceived Into Supporting It

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