The Tucker Carlson Show - Military Expert Dan Caldwell Breaks Down What Will Happen Next in Israel’s War With Iran

00:00:00.000 So it seems likely the U.S. government will participate in offensive strikes on Iran's 0.95

00:00:05.200 nuclear facilities.

00:00:06.280 If that happens, what next?

00:00:08.780 How does Iran respond?

00:00:10.780 Can airstrikes alone end the nuclear program?

00:00:14.600 And what happens to the rest of the countries in the region and Iran's allies?

00:00:19.920 Do they get involved?

00:00:21.020 There's no better person to talk this through with than former Pentagon official Dan Caldwell,

00:00:25.780 who joins us now.

00:00:30.000 As we sit here right now, and I hope you'll correct me if you think this impression is

00:00:53.720 wrong, but I think the general view among people who are watching what's happening in

00:00:57.780 Iran is that there will be some kind of U.S. strike.

00:01:02.880 I'm not, this is, I'm getting this from what I'm reading in the popular press.

00:01:06.560 There will be some kind of strike on Iran by the U.S. military against an enrichment site, 0.83

00:01:12.280 the famous subterranean enrichment site, with some kind of conventional, large conventional

00:01:18.780 bunker buster weapon.

00:01:20.720 And that has not happened.

00:01:22.980 Of course, we don't know that's going to happen.

00:01:24.360 We don't know anything.

00:01:26.420 But let's just assume that does happen.

00:01:30.680 What happens next?

00:01:32.780 Well, let me just say, if it does happen, I hope all my predictions are dead wrong.

00:01:38.440 Me too.

00:01:39.420 Thank you for saying that.

00:01:40.700 Because that means dead Americans. 0.94

00:01:42.120 And, you know, I won't say who, I was talking to somebody who I guess you could describe

00:01:46.580 as a neoconservative. 0.99

00:01:48.860 And, you know, I said, I hope if this happens, you're making fun of me and calling me an idiot. 0.99

00:01:54.280 Me too. 0.99

00:01:54.580 I totally.

00:01:55.280 I really mean that because there's guys who are just like me 15, 20 years ago that are

00:02:01.540 going to be in the middle of this fight.

00:02:02.460 Either they're going to be on some of these bases that will likely come under attack.

00:02:05.840 They're going to be part of air crews.

00:02:07.020 You'll be on some of these ships.

00:02:07.960 Because I really hope that all the confident predictions play out.

00:02:11.480 And I'd love to be wrong.

00:02:13.120 Can I ask you to start?

00:02:13.820 How are those guys, since you've been one of those guys, how are those guys feeling right now?

00:02:18.040 You know, are they getting news?

00:02:20.300 Are they on social media?

00:02:21.340 Are they aware of what people in the U.S. are saying about the likelihood of this?

00:02:24.640 I think that a lot of them are.

00:02:27.620 I have spoken to a few that are still in the service.

00:02:31.380 And the ones that I talk to are either senior listed or more senior officers.

00:02:36.580 So they've been around for 15, 20, some cases, 25 years at the tail end of their careers.

00:02:42.660 And honestly, a lot of those guys are tired.

00:02:45.940 And these were guys 20 years ago that the one thing they wanted was to get in the fight.

00:02:51.720 They wanted to go to Iraq.

00:02:53.020 They wanted to go to Afghanistan.

00:02:54.680 Some of them are on their seventh, eighth deployments, either to the region or to Europe

00:03:00.900 or somewhere else.

00:03:02.100 And they're worn out.

00:03:05.940 And they also see that the military has really continued to be overstretched despite the fact

00:03:11.880 that the Iraq and Afghanistan wars have wound down.

00:03:14.240 And remember, we still have thousands of troops in Iraq and Syria.

00:03:18.440 Thankfully, the Trump administration prior to this appears to have started a retrograde,

00:03:23.260 a withdrawal from Syria.

00:03:24.340 Hopefully, we go to zero there.

00:03:26.500 So we still have a lot of troops there.

00:03:29.060 And a lot of them just feel like we've been doing this for so long.

00:03:33.900 And there's so many things we have to do to fix the military, to fix the culture, something

00:03:39.180 the DOD is really trying to prioritize.

00:03:41.460 We need to reform our army.

00:03:43.500 Secretary Dan Driscoll is starting this major army reform effort that I think is important.

00:03:48.980 And another war will distract away from that.

00:03:51.100 We'll take resources away from that.

00:03:52.860 But there's a huge problem right now with a standard of living within the United States

00:03:58.540 military.

00:03:59.520 A lot of barracks are falling apart.

00:04:02.960 You had the Navy Secretary John Phelan, and credit to him, he went out to Guam and saw the

00:04:08.260 decrepit state of the barracks for, I believe, the Marines out there.

00:04:12.160 And he ordered them shut down.

00:04:13.780 And they were so bad.

00:04:15.000 So another war that not only puts more lives in danger and requires more deployments to

00:04:21.940 that region after 20 years of continuous deployment, sometimes the last minute, again, it takes

00:04:28.000 resources away from things we need to do.

00:04:30.920 And I think a lot of folks are really worried about that as well.

00:04:33.880 If you're on a ship in the region right now, and you think there could be offensive military

00:04:42.300 action by the U.S. military, and you're at some level of the chain, you're part of it.

00:04:46.700 Are you nervous?

00:04:48.300 I mean, being I, when I was in the Marine Corps, even though we are an amphibious branch, I never

00:04:54.880 served on a ship before I flew over to Iraq.

00:04:57.540 I didn't go over on a boat float.

00:05:00.320 But I mean, from what it's been describing to me, you're in a metal container.

00:05:06.240 I used to talk a lot of trash about the Navy, but understanding what it's like to live on

00:05:11.020 a ship six months at a time, and especially when you get extended over and over again,

00:05:15.600 I'd rather do multiple deployments to Iraq.

00:05:17.880 I'd just like to say that.

00:05:19.840 But it's very isolating.

00:05:21.640 It's very scary because you sometimes feel like you don't have control.

00:05:26.700 And that events are out of your hands in a way that's maybe not the same for somebody

00:05:31.100 who's serving in the infantry, or you're an individual pilot.

00:05:35.260 There's nowhere to run, literally.

00:05:36.760 Yes.

00:05:37.400 Yeah.

00:05:37.720 It's terrifying.

00:05:39.120 And as been publicly reported, we had some very, very close calls in the recent fight

00:05:44.460 against the Houthis.

00:05:46.400 There was some anti-ship missiles.

00:05:50.120 We have a very effective ballistic missile defense and anti-missile defense on these ships.

00:05:57.720 But one of the reasons why one of those F-18s fell off the Harry S.S. Truman was because

00:06:03.540 it had to do some aggressive maneuvers to potentially avoid a Houthi anti-ship missile.

00:06:09.860 And thankfully, it didn't hit.

00:06:10.680 But imagine being one of the 6,000 sailors and Marines on that ship and in that moment.

00:06:17.860 And it's terrifying.

00:06:19.420 It can be absolutely terrifying.

00:06:20.840 It is terrifying.

00:06:21.840 I'm sorry.

00:06:22.120 I'm sorry to interrupt you.

00:06:23.000 I just...

00:06:23.600 No.

00:06:24.060 I was thinking that this morning.

00:06:25.080 What would it be like to be one of those guys just waiting for something to happen

00:06:28.080 and knowing it could be...

00:06:29.120 Nothing but respect for the United States Navy.

00:06:31.540 I totally agree.

00:06:32.080 So, you were saying, and I just wanted to add my voice in vehement agreement, I really

00:06:37.960 hope to be wrong in every one of my predictions.

00:06:40.140 I hope to laugh at myself and apologize to everyone for being hysterical.

00:06:44.040 I really hope that I can do that.

00:06:46.080 And I know you feel the same way.

00:06:47.720 So, with that caveat, what do you think is likely to happen if a strike of the nature

00:06:51.620 that I described happens?

00:06:53.360 Well, I think the event to look back on, back to that could show us what could happen

00:07:01.320 is what happened after the Soleimani strike.

00:07:03.960 And it's not a perfect comparison because it's pretty clear the Iranians telegraphed 1.00

00:07:09.380 to us that they were going to do that.

00:07:11.420 We had some back-channel communications, most likely.

00:07:14.680 And so, we knew it was coming.

00:07:16.440 And so, our troops on Al-Assad Air Base, where I served, and actually, interestingly,

00:07:20.500 where the vice president served as well, too, many years ago, were able to get to shelters

00:07:25.720 and to get out of places that were very exposed.

00:07:28.220 And Iran launched a salvo of ballistic missiles at Al-Assad Air Base.

00:07:34.420 But even then-

00:07:35.060 Which is where?

00:07:35.980 Al-Assad Air Base is in Western Iraq.

00:07:38.340 It's in Al-Anbar province.

00:07:40.300 It's in Al-Anbar.

00:07:41.860 And one thing to note about that base is, is that we do a lot of joint training with

00:07:48.120 the Iraqi Army.

00:07:48.860 And the Iraqi Army is part of the same government that has another security force called the

00:07:56.000 Popular Mobilization Force, which is a group of militias that are loyal to Iran.

00:08:02.140 They were funded, initially supported, and trained by Quds Force, led by Soleimani at the

00:08:07.700 time.

00:08:08.820 And so, we are, at that base, training allies of the people that are likely going to be trying

00:08:14.240 to kill us in this war.

00:08:15.620 So, that's important to remember.

00:08:17.840 And that, I think, can lead you to understand how-

00:08:21.580 That is still the case?

00:08:23.100 Absolutely.

00:08:23.740 That's our main mission in Iraq right now is to support the Iraqi security forces, which

00:08:30.020 includes the Popular Mobilization Forces, which consists of Iran-aligned militia groups.

00:08:36.800 This is so bonkers.

00:08:38.200 It is the most convoluted mission, I think, on the face of the earth right now.

00:08:43.180 Is that a mission?

00:08:43.760 That seems like-

00:08:45.160 A suicide pack.

00:08:46.280 Kind of.

00:08:46.840 Kind of.

00:08:47.360 It seems like putting guys in jeopardy for what's the purpose exactly?

00:08:51.820 We're literally propping up an ally of Iran, and we're subsidizing an ally of Iran.

00:08:56.960 And some will argue, it's like, well, we need these troops in al-Assad, and we need them

00:09:02.020 in, you know, parts of Baghdad still and other parts of the country to check Iran.

00:09:07.020 But a small number of troops is not meaningfully influencing the Iraqi government, and it's

00:09:13.160 not providing a meaningful check on Iranian influence.

00:09:17.760 They're just easy targets that allow us to, excuse me, allow the Iranians to bleed us 1.00

00:09:23.820 cheaply.

00:09:24.300 So without divulging anything, I mean, I know that you won't during the course of

00:09:27.460 this conversation say anything that is privileged or, you know, legally, confidential, secret.

00:09:32.620 But as far as you know, they're there today.

00:09:35.100 Those American troops are still in Iraq.

00:09:37.120 As far as I know, yes.

00:09:37.920 Still surrounded by Iranian proxies.

00:09:40.060 Yes.

00:09:41.220 Yes.

00:09:41.700 And so I would still have concerns about a strike, a direct military intervention in Iran

00:09:49.380 were those troops not there, but the risks would be substantially lower if we didn't

00:09:54.340 have troops in Iraq and Syria.

00:09:56.780 Remember in 2020 when CNN told you the George Floyd riots were mostly peaceful, even as flames

00:10:04.360 rose in the background?

00:10:06.000 It was ridiculous, but it was also a metaphor for the way our leaders run this country. 0.57

00:10:11.480 They're constantly telling you, everything is fine. 0.91

00:10:14.860 Everything is fine.

00:10:16.400 Don't worry.

00:10:17.460 Hey, everything's under control.

00:10:19.360 Nothing to see here.

00:10:20.140 Move along and obey.

00:10:22.320 No one believes that.

00:10:24.500 Crime is not going away.

00:10:26.160 Supply chains remain fragile.

00:10:27.900 It does feel like some kind of global conflict could break out at any time.

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00:12:00.300 Man, can I just say something really cynical?

00:12:03.740 It'd be pretty easy to draw us in to a ground war against or a full-scale regime change effort against Iran by attacking those troops, no matter who you are.

00:12:13.340 I've said it publicly, you know, prior to being a DOD, in a lot of ways, those troops in Iraq and Syria were a tripwire to a larger war.

00:12:22.960 And especially after the defeat of the ISIS caliphate, and you can argue whether or not they should have been put back into Iraq and Syria to begin with,

00:12:35.020 but especially after the ISIS caliphate, they should not have been there.

00:12:38.140 There were many crimes in the first Trump administration, but one of the greatest crimes in the first Trump administration was an active effort by President Trump's own political appointees, in some cases,

00:12:52.680 and elements of the military to undermine his stated preference to withdraw, particularly from Syria.

00:12:58.880 And let's not forget, you had the president's special representative, I believe, for Syria, this guy Jim Jeffrey,

00:13:07.480 who, after he left the administration, ran around Washington, D.C., bragging about lying to the president about the number of troops in Syria so that he would be less likely to withdraw them.

00:13:21.840 And that's not a crime? I think that's a crime.

00:13:23.660 It should be. It absolutely should be. And it's disgraceful.

00:13:27.060 Subverting the civilian leadership of the military is not a crime. I think it is.

00:13:31.280 It absolutely is. And it was completely outrageous.

00:13:35.720 And as a result, I think there's a direct line between that and last year when you had three army reservists killed at Tower 22 in Jordan by a drone.

00:13:50.700 Tower 22 in Jordan is directly in support of, it exists to support a base in Syria.

00:13:56.120 And had Jim Jeffrey and others not undermine President Trump, those three reservists would likely still be alive today.

00:14:03.980 Why is it called Tower 22?

00:14:05.820 Honestly, I'm not entirely sure.

00:14:08.120 But it is a U.S. military installation of some kind in Jordan.

00:14:10.780 Yes.

00:14:11.100 Whose purpose is to support the U.S. military installation that is in Syria but shouldn't be.

00:14:15.180 It's literally right across the border.

00:14:16.860 And that installation in Syria is called TANF.

00:14:22.360 And again, none of this, this has all been reported public info, is that was originally established to train anti-Assad fighters to basically effectively retrain them to fight ISIS.

00:14:35.560 And so then that mission morphed into a counter-Iran mission where they wanted to keep American troops there and the proxies there so Iran wouldn't have a line of communication or basically, you know, an ability to move forces from Iran through Iraq to Syria.

00:14:56.360 So that was justification.

00:14:58.400 But then things changed in northern Syria.

00:15:00.920 The Syrian army started collaborating more with the Kurds.

00:15:03.100 So they got a line of communication.

00:15:05.220 And so then it ran out another mission.

00:15:06.640 And then it became airspace control.

00:15:08.100 And by the time it was, you got to January, 2020, I believe it's January, February, 2024, when this incident happened, the Biden administration, it was reported, you know, when people asked about the Syria policy, Biden admin officials would just laugh because we had none.

00:15:28.080 So they were sitting there for no reason other than this belief is that you can never withdraw or retrench from anywhere because of surrender.

00:15:37.240 Well, and the irony is, of course, that elements of ISIS now run Syria.

00:15:40.080 And we're cool with that for some reason.

00:15:42.680 Yeah.

00:15:42.900 I mean, at the end of the day, Jelani was created in an American prison. 0.76

00:15:49.020 Now, I will say, I think it is good.

00:15:51.880 We're trying to remove sanctions on Syria.

00:15:54.020 I totally agree.

00:15:54.760 Because, you know, sanctions only hurt the average person in Syria.

00:16:01.720 I'm glad we're pursuing that.

00:16:02.960 I'm glad we're trying to pursue some type of diplomatic course there.

00:16:05.780 But let's be honest, who won that war?

00:16:07.620 Al-Qaeda won the war.

00:16:08.940 Well, that's the point.

00:16:10.020 Look, I'm rooting for Jelani.

00:16:11.440 I want him to become, you know, a wise leader who makes the region more stable and peaceful.

00:16:16.780 And I want everyone to succeed.

00:16:18.920 But as long as we're framing everything in moral terms, this just shows the true bankruptcy of the program.

00:16:26.940 Yeah.

00:16:27.280 That we replaced Assad with Al-Qaeda. 0.72

00:16:32.700 Yeah.

00:16:32.980 You know, I guess the one thing they have in common is you both begin with A first.

00:16:37.200 But the one thing they don't have in common is only one of them is responsible for 9-11.

00:16:41.340 So I think I'm pretty pro-Assad if that's the choice. 0.97

00:16:45.180 I mean, I, yeah, Assad definitely was incredibly nasty and awful.

00:16:49.880 But it's interesting to bring up 9-11.

00:16:51.680 Who did we cooperate with after 9-11?

00:16:53.720 We sent prisoners to Assad to help interrogate.

00:16:59.200 And ultimately, we had a shared interest in stopping Al-Qaeda.

00:17:05.060 So we cooperated with Assad early in the long term.

00:17:07.560 I know.

00:17:08.020 So if you were to frame your foreign policy around your own interests or even around your own grievances, like it's fair to be mad about 9-11.

00:17:15.320 Yeah.

00:17:15.660 All those people died, 3,000.

00:17:17.760 Then you would be, you would definitely not be happy that the guy who helped you after 9-11 was overthrown in favor of the people who did 9-11.

00:17:25.520 Like from an American perspective, that's not a win.

00:17:27.220 And we spent tens of billions of dollars in Syria.

00:17:33.040 We lost lives.

00:17:34.400 You know, we know Joe Kent, you know, his wife, absolute heroic woman.

00:17:42.500 You know, other soldiers, Marines were wounded.

00:17:45.780 We came close at several points to getting into combat with the actual Russian military.

00:17:51.720 We had a major battle with Russian mercenaries, the Wagner Group.

00:17:55.860 You know, a lot of people focus on the risk of escalation in Ukraine and an incident where American and Russian forces that are operating area could come into conflict and where that could go.

00:18:09.800 That almost happened in Syria on a weekly basis for several years because you had Russian and Syrian or you had Russian and American aircraft operating the same place.

00:18:18.400 You had American troops and Russian troops operating in the same area.

00:18:22.700 One misunderstanding could have kicked off a cycle where we're in a major conflict with Russia.

00:18:29.060 And, you know, the focus has been on Ukraine.

00:18:32.540 But the place for a longest time where Russian and American forces were brushing up against each other was in Syria.

00:18:39.440 So, especially after the destruction of ISIS caliphate, that mission should have ended.

00:18:44.960 And it is, again, an absolute crime that it was undermined not once but twice in President Trump's first term.

00:18:52.700 You described our true presence in Iraq as, quote, a tripwire.

00:18:57.140 Can you flesh out what you mean by that and how it happened?

00:19:01.820 I would say both Iraq and Syria and probably more Syria is.

00:19:06.240 That kind of gets to ultimately why I think some people wanted to keep our troops there.

00:19:13.400 Is that if there was a mass casualty incident where an Iranian-aligned militia or some other actor attacked American troops and, you know, God forbid, killed or wounded a significant number of troops,

00:19:30.880 that would have been justification to escalate either against Iran or to get more involved fighting other groups like, you know, al-Qaeda, ISIS.

00:19:40.000 And so, just their mere presence was, again, they weren't effectively deterring Iran or other actors because they're just too small. 0.73

00:19:49.760 But their presence in and of itself was a risk that we could be sucked into a major war.

00:19:54.600 So, are you saying that you sincerely believe there are U.S. policymakers who intentionally put American troops at risk?

00:20:01.320 I don't think, consciously, there are U.S., at least I don't want to believe.

00:20:10.140 No.

00:20:10.500 There are U.S. policymakers that believe that.

00:20:13.600 But, you know, I think subconsciously some folks did.

00:20:17.760 Lyndon Johnson allowed the U.S. liberty to be attacked.

00:20:20.200 He knew those guys were going to die.

00:20:21.200 He thought they were all going to die.

00:20:22.160 I mean, I think that's true.

00:20:23.160 So, I mean, that's happened before.

00:20:25.180 He's the president of the United States allowing, hoping for the death of U.S. troops for some other agenda.

00:20:31.660 Like, there are people that evil.

00:20:33.280 Lyndon Johnson was that evil.

00:20:34.660 Yeah.

00:20:34.880 I mean, the, you know, when we know now about Gulf of Tonkin and all that other, I think so.

00:20:39.480 Exactly.

00:20:40.060 Yeah.

00:20:40.200 Exactly.

00:20:40.980 And I, you know, my belief is that, honestly, a lot of it more had to do, and we talked about this last interview, this kind of policy inertia.

00:20:50.440 Like, it's easier just to say, let's keep doing the status quo as opposed to actually changing something because there's less risk in a lot of people's minds.

00:21:02.840 Now, again, I just lead out the risk of keeping troops there.

00:21:05.600 But in some people's minds, there's less risk to their career by preserving the status quo as opposed to changing something that's not working.

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00:22:31.920 Remember in 2020 when CNN told you the George Floyd riots were mostly peaceful?

00:22:38.220 Even as flames rose in the background?

00:22:41.200 It was ridiculous, but it was also a metaphor for the way our leaders run this country.

00:22:46.680 They're constantly telling you, everything is fine. 0.91

00:22:50.060 Everything is fine.

00:22:51.600 Don't worry.

00:22:53.560 Everything's under control.

00:22:54.540 Nothing to see here.

00:22:55.340 Move along and obey.

00:22:57.500 No one believes that.

00:22:59.600 Crime is not going away.

00:23:00.820 Supply chains remain fragile.

00:23:03.080 It does feel like some kind of global conflict could break out at any time.

00:23:07.180 So the question is, if things went south tomorrow, would you be ready?

00:23:10.600 Well, if you're not certain that you'd be ready, you need AmmoSquared.

00:23:16.060 AmmoSquared is the only service that lets you build an ammunition stockpile automatically.

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00:23:48.380 It's one of the saddest things about this country.

00:23:50.320 The country is getting sicker.

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00:23:55.980 Obesity, heart disease, autoimmune conditions, all kinds of horrible chronic illnesses,

00:24:00.540 weird cancers are all on the rise.

00:24:02.560 Probably a lot of reasons for this, but one of them definitely is Americans don't eat very well anymore. 0.94

00:24:07.100 They don't eat real food.

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00:24:41.180 Masa chips are delicious.

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00:25:09.140 We enjoy them.

00:25:09.960 You will too.

00:25:10.420 And regardless of motive, I think your point is demonstrably true.

00:25:16.680 Whether or not the people who set it up intended it to be a tripwire, it is a tripwire.

00:25:20.640 Yes.

00:25:21.440 That's fair, right?

00:25:22.360 Yes, absolutely.

00:25:23.000 So that's the first thing that could happen if we strike, if the U.S. military strikes offensively against Iran in any way, right?

00:25:33.980 Yeah.

00:25:34.860 Okay, so then what else?

00:25:36.360 What would happen then?

00:25:37.060 Well, that's where there's really, it all depends on the impact of the counter-strike on U.S. troops and on American facilities and how the United States responds.

00:25:51.740 If we continue, at that point, you're on the escalation ladder.

00:25:55.620 So if our troops are attacked and we counterattack with a larger strike and a larger force, and if we use certain bases in the region, like say in places like Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, the Emirates, Saudi Arabia,

00:26:13.500 if these countries allow us, and there's a good chance, this is something I think needs to be constantly reinforced, is that these Gulf Arab states are not where they were in 2019.

00:26:25.420 So it's not a guarantee that they would allow us to use these bases in their country to attack Iran. 0.84

00:26:31.760 But if the Iranians perceive, whether it's true or not, that we are using those bases and they're looking to punish us, they will attack bases that are larger, maybe more hardened, but host a lot more troops.

00:26:48.860 And that could quickly lead to more casualties.

00:26:52.300 They could also attack ships in the Arabian Sea or Persian Gulf.

00:26:57.520 And they could also, if we continue to get pushed up the escalation ladder, attack U.S. diplomatic facilities.

00:27:04.960 Now, those are all worst-case scenarios, but they're risks that should be considered and can't be ignored.

00:27:11.620 So it gets back to this whole idea that I just, and again, I hope I'm wrong.

00:27:16.620 I fundamentally don't buy that you can just do one or two strikes and that's it, and the Iranians, you know, aren't going to respond. 1.00

00:27:24.040 And it's going to have to be, you're going to have to prepare and expect a much longer and much more bloody military campaign.

00:27:32.520 Obviously, without divulging the details of any kind of classified planning document, we know that the Pentagon has been thinking about how Iran would respond to a strike against its enrichment facilities for like a long time, a long, long time.

00:27:47.480 This has been, I mean, people have, and I know that you're one of them.

00:27:51.080 Does anybody think that they just wouldn't respond?

00:27:55.460 I'm sure there are people right now who are trying to say is they won't respond.

00:28:03.140 It's like they're weak.

00:28:04.260 They're on their back foot.

00:28:06.880 They want to just save the regime.

00:28:11.680 So therefore, they're just going to back off, that they're not actually going to respond.

00:28:15.860 And if you look at the hours immediately after the Israeli, initial Israeli set of airstrikes, there's some people saying, watch, like Iran's not going to really respond or it's going to be weak.

00:28:31.260 And, you know, over the next few days, they launched between 400 and 500 ballistic missiles.

00:28:37.800 Again, thankfully, they weren't as effective as originally advertised.

00:28:41.620 But still, they've, as we sit here today, I believe, killed around 25 Israelis, wounded nearly 600.

00:28:48.840 They've been able to hit, you know.

00:28:52.380 They've wounded 600 Israelis so far?

00:28:54.320 Yes.

00:28:55.040 Yeah.

00:28:55.260 Are we, there's total military censorship in Israel.

00:28:59.940 Israeli citizens are not allowed to leave.

00:29:01.760 Most of them are not allowed to leave the country.

00:29:03.360 They shut it down.

00:29:04.340 So, like, they're stuck there for people.

00:29:06.960 And so, and there's, you know, total control of the press in Israel.

00:29:11.760 So, do we know, like, are we confident we know the casualty numbers in Israel?

00:29:17.120 No.

00:29:17.820 Both sides, the numbers that have been released by both sides are, in some cases, maybe overstating things.

00:29:25.600 I think it's likely the Iranians are maybe overstating civilian casualties, understating military casualties.

00:29:32.580 You would guess.

00:29:33.420 And I think it's a lagging indicator.

00:29:35.920 My understanding, and again, I'm not an expert on this, is that the way Israelis work is that they allow the information to come out at just a later point.

00:29:44.340 But, look, I mean, in some ways I don't blame them because somebody filming something from a balcony and how a missile hits, that is intelligence for their families.

00:29:55.160 Oh, I'm not complaining about it.

00:29:56.560 I'm just saying, I always...

00:29:58.720 And you saw something, you see that very, in Ukraine as well.

00:30:03.240 Yeah, I mean, that's a whole different, I mean, the casualty numbers in Ukraine, you know, American lawmakers who funded this war, extended this war for years at the expense of the Ukrainians, I think, have a moral obligation to know how many Ukrainians have died.

00:30:16.220 They did this, but they don't care.

00:30:19.400 I actually think there's an amendment, and I could be wrong about this, put in one of the National Defense Authorization Acts, or an attempt to force the disclosure of the two true casualty numbers.

00:30:30.300 And I think it was defeated, or it was added in and just, it's being ignored by DOD.

00:30:34.900 Yeah, I really think that's contemptible.

00:30:37.180 I've asked a bunch of lawmakers who have, are really responsible for the war, or the continuation of the war, you know, like how many Ukrainians have died?

00:30:47.300 They have no interest in knowing, you know, but anyway.

00:30:49.700 The point of walking all that through that is, and Iran is really adjusting and changing their tactics as the war grinds on, and that's in part because Israelis have been successful in destroying some of their mobile missile launchers and their missile stocks. 0.74

00:31:10.320 So the barrages aren't as intense, but you're seeing them introduce new systems.

00:31:14.560 And here's the most important thing that, you know, absent an American intervention, which, as we've discussed, could be imminent.

00:31:24.320 Right now, the war is essentially a race between Iran and Israel.

00:31:28.780 For the Israelis, they are trying to destroy as many Iranian ballistic missile launchers and ballistic missiles before they run out of anti-missile ballistic missile interceptors for their Aero, David Sling systems, and then our Thad systems, and our SM-3, SM-6s that were launching off the ships.

00:31:52.360 Likewise, the Iranians are trying to preserve as many of their missile systems and survive as many Israeli airstrikes as possible while the Israelis wear down their store of precision munitions and missile interceptors.

00:32:12.460 So each side is trying to get to a point where they're either not threatened by certain offensive weapon systems or their offensive weapon systems can breach defensive systems more effectively and inflict more casualties.

00:32:28.000 And there are smart people that say right now in that race, Israel has a slight advantage. 0.92

00:32:33.980 Other smart people say Iran has a slight advantage because of the number of missiles they've stockpiled.

00:32:39.500 And that really right now is the game.

00:32:41.780 So there's a time pressure here on both sides.

00:32:44.940 And absent, you know, American military intervention, which will change the whole dynamic, is that's really what it's going to come down to.

00:32:53.440 Which side can outlast the other with certain types of weapons and weapons systems?

00:32:57.860 Again, with the caveat, I have no freaking idea what's going to happen.

00:33:01.200 Nobody does other than, well, I don't know that anybody does right now.

00:33:04.700 So, I mean, there's been reported repeatedly that there's going to be American military intervention.

00:33:12.560 Like, that's just, like, reported as fact, whether it is or not.

00:33:16.520 So I just want to focus a little more intently on how does that change the dynamic?

00:33:21.360 And how much offensive intervention would qualify as, like, dragging America into the war officially?

00:33:28.740 Any?

00:33:28.960 Well, again, a lot of it goes back to the conversation we're just having.

00:33:34.920 If Iran doesn't respond to just one or two strikes, they decide to take that blow, and there's evidence that they—most of the evidence shows they probably wouldn't, then that would probably contain the size of the American offensive operation.

00:33:53.020 But if we were to go in, I think it is likely that we wouldn't just hit a nuclear site for the sake of our own troops.

00:34:02.000 So it would not just be a one-off strike, or we'd coordinate with Israelis.

00:34:08.200 And again, if there is an attack on American bases in response to this, that would pull the United States more into the war and push us into a spiral where we're constantly escalating against the other side.

00:34:22.060 And then that brings us to a point where, even though it's pretty clear the Trump administration, even if they do decide to do the strike, doesn't want a regime-change war, is ultimately get pulled into a regime-change war, whether or not we want it.

00:34:37.180 So none of this was even on the table, you know, 10 days ago until the prime minister of Israel called the president of the United States and said, I'm going in, I'm doing it, I don't care what you say.

00:34:46.720 It's all been reported in the New York Times, given three days' notice.

00:34:49.200 It's just a little bit crazy that all of a sudden we're talking about, like, how are we going to deal with this war against Iran, which wasn't even a thing, two weeks ago.

00:34:58.180 So I just want to say that.

00:34:59.820 How, if this were a war that the United States chose, this was, it wasn't, this was a war that was chosen for us, we were going along with it. 0.67

00:35:06.980 But if we had chosen this, if we decided, like, depending on HQ, we're going to take out those enrichment facilities, how, like, you wouldn't do it three days later, right?

00:35:18.660 There's a lot of planning for these things?

00:35:21.020 Yes.

00:35:21.560 And this is, I mean, again, stuff that's been publicly reported is these types of operations have been planned for years.

00:35:28.120 Yeah.

00:35:28.260 And they've had different plans, they've adjusted, but have essentially been on the shelf for years now.

00:35:35.960 Yeah.

00:35:36.760 But does it make it harder to get just three days' notice before the shooting starts?

00:35:41.560 Um, this is where I'm a little unsure because I don't know what 100% for sure, there's a lot of public reporting, but that's not always so.

00:35:51.940 That's, you're, you're absolutely right.

00:35:53.480 And I shouldn't pretend like I know.

00:35:54.780 And, and so I don't know what was in the region or not, but there, to successfully accomplish something like this, you do need a, a, there needs to be a lot of things that happen leading up into that.

00:36:08.260 I think that is fair to say, and the United States military can move quickly when it needs to.

00:36:14.220 I'll say it can move quickly when you don't have large number of ground troops, when you're primarily relying on air and naval assets.

00:36:22.380 So you can move stuff in quickly, but leading up into that, there would have, there normally would be a lot of planning.

00:36:29.540 But again, I'm sorry if I'm going back and forth here.

00:36:32.080 This has been a scenario that has been planned for, for a long time.

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00:37:48.080 In thinking about this, non-classified of course, but given that Iran is part of BRICS and has all kinds of military and economic ties with Russia and China,

00:37:59.720 how high is the concern that they might get involved?

00:38:03.220 So this is where it gets interesting is I think Russia in particular has a lot of reasons for them not to get involved.

00:38:16.720 That's my sense.

00:38:17.300 And the reason there's a few reasons is one, a lot of the things that Iran would need from Russia are actually things that Russians really need in Ukraine.

00:38:26.880 Right.

00:38:27.000 So air defense assets, fighter jets and things like that is Russia's military and industrial base is much more developed than the United States and NATO.

00:38:37.960 Interesting fact.

00:38:39.960 And, you know, the NATO secretary general says all the time is Russia produces more weapons and munitions in three months than all of NATO combined produces in a year.

00:38:50.780 So, but the Russian way of war in Ukraine relies on overwhelming firepower.

00:38:57.320 So it's very difficult for them to divert weapons to other partners.

00:39:01.920 I'm not saying that that couldn't happen.

00:39:04.980 Maybe there's some intelligence sharing, but I don't think that my gut would be is they would not support Iran in a very big way.

00:39:12.340 I think China is is is is different.

00:39:14.740 I don't think that they would overtly support the Iranians.

00:39:18.600 But I think if there's one party that over the medium term, at least, and they may face some short term challenges because of disruption and energy surprise, but over the medium term that would benefit from another major war in the Middle East and what the United States is heavily involved in.

00:39:36.200 It is China because the weapons that we would be using to fight Iran are what we would need in a specific contingency and God forbid we fight a war with China. 0.82

00:39:49.760 It's not even fighting war either.

00:39:50.940 It's weapons that we want to supply to some of our partners, whether it's Japan or the Philippines or South Korea or Taiwan.

00:39:58.300 Those are all systems that would be heavily used, whether it's air defense, standoff munitions, you know, other types of of air to surface munitions, surface to surface munitions.

00:40:14.200 Those those are the things that are going to lead the Iran fight because of just the size of Iran.

00:40:20.000 Iran is a huge country, both in terms of population, but geography.

00:40:23.600 It's not as small in terms of geography as Iraq, and it's as much longer distances to, say, get from the Persian Gulf up to Tehran.

00:40:32.400 So you have to rely on certain types of weapons and certain types of aircraft, again, all of which are would be at the tip of a spear in a fight against China.

00:40:41.040 So it is in their interest to see us expend more and more munitions and wear down more and more weapon systems in the Persian Gulf. 0.97

00:40:48.440 So. Again, China's played it very smart in how they engage the Middle East.

00:40:55.040 I think that they would be more willing to do things economically to help Iran and maybe provide some nonlethal systems like they have for Russia that could be beneficial for Iran in this fight.

00:41:07.280 But again, you can't what's and what do you mean by nonlethal systems?

00:41:11.560 So, for example, China, there's debate over this, but there's not really clear evidence that China has provided lethal weapon systems like Iran and North Korea had to Russia.

00:41:25.140 However, they have provided nonlethal weapon systems like counter drone technology to Russia.

00:41:31.820 They have provided they've helped them get around some of the Western sanctions.

00:41:36.440 They've helped provide them certain types of electronics that are maybe harder to get from the West.

00:41:41.300 I think we can say that with confidence.

00:41:43.120 They could do that with Iran. 0.98

00:41:45.560 And massive investment in Russia.

00:41:47.480 Yes.

00:41:47.880 Which, by the way, keeps the Russian population prosperous and happy and not complaining about the war. 0.94

00:41:52.820 Yes.

00:41:53.680 But again, as we, you know, talked about before, that's not a natural alliance.

00:41:58.560 And the Russian security services are still very suspicious of the Chinese, just like the Iranian security services aren't.

00:42:08.240 They're still suspicious of the Russians because there's a long history of Russia invading and.

00:42:15.680 These are countries that border each other.

00:42:17.200 Yes.

00:42:18.020 Occupying Iran, I believe, twice in the 20th century. 0.76

00:42:21.600 So, getting back to the theme that we've talked about before, it's like we've all pushed these countries together because of our dumb forward policy.

00:42:29.460 We should be able to pull them apart.

00:42:31.160 They should have natural tension.

00:42:32.820 But because of our foreign policy over the last 30 years, we're creating these opportunities for cooperation.

00:42:38.100 And that makes the situation in the Middle East worse, the situation in Ukraine worse, and the situation in the Pacific worse for us.

00:42:43.920 Do you think there's any chance that China become, you know, if this does become a direct conflict between the United States and Iran, that China enters it in a way that's like, that we can't ignore, that's just so provocative that we're at war with them too? 0.70

00:43:00.540 I think it's more likely that they would make a decision to do something in the Pacific because that is more important to them.

00:43:08.260 I don't buy this argument that if we were to pull out of the Middle East, that China would want to become a hegemon in the Middle East.

00:43:20.220 They have been able to use smart power and minimal military power to maintain influence and reap economic benefits from the Middle East. 0.87

00:43:28.360 And they don't have the force projection capabilities that the United States has.

00:43:34.520 Some smart people that I've worked with have made pretty compelling arguments that they are not likely to try and dominate the Middle East.

00:43:44.580 So I don't think China would get directly involved in the Middle East.

00:43:49.380 But if they see the United States worn down even more in the Middle East, that may change some of their calculus vis-a-vis Taiwan.

00:43:56.400 And I wonder, not just Taiwan, so we've been in Japan for 80 years, we've been in Korea since 1950, 75 years.

00:44:06.920 Those are like in their neighborhood.

00:44:09.960 Yeah.

00:44:10.440 And I'm certainly not justifying anything China, I'm not, you know, but I'm just trying to understand like their perspective because I think it's meaningful.

00:44:16.920 If there were, you know, if there was an 80-year-old Chinese military base in Belize, you'd be like, a little close.

00:44:24.420 We wouldn't want that.

00:44:25.520 Nobody wants that.

00:44:26.800 And so maybe their expectation is that they can drive us out of the East, out of their direct sphere. 0.92

00:44:33.200 Is that a concern?

00:44:34.560 I mean, is that something that people think this stuff through, think about?

00:44:38.100 Yeah, I think there have been people that have thought about that.

00:44:43.580 And I think there's a lot of people, honestly, I think one of the biggest issues the Pentagon is dealing with right now is,

00:44:49.300 since that has been identified as the main theater, the main threat, the pacing, to use a military term, the pacing threat,

00:44:57.920 or pacing challenge, whatever term you want to use, that everything we're doing in the Middle East trades off against the Pacific,

00:45:08.300 which from an economic standpoint is much more important to us than the Middle East.

00:45:14.600 You know, what happens in the South China Sea is fundamentally more important than what happens in the Middle East.

00:45:21.000 Middle East, I think, is 5% of the world's population, 5% of the GDP.

00:45:28.620 East Asia is something like 60%, 40% or 60% of the world's GDP.

00:45:34.660 So just from a trade and the conditions of our economic prosperity standpoint, it is much more important to us.

00:45:41.980 And China is an actual real existential threat to the United States, 1.00

00:45:46.480 where Iran is a threat in so as much that we have 40,000 troops spread across the Middle East,

00:45:53.980 many of them who are in exposed positions, as we've talked about, that are vulnerable to Iranian attacks.

00:46:01.480 That's the biggest reason why they're a threat.

00:46:03.620 Wait, I don't think you watch Fox News.

00:46:05.520 I heard Ted Cruz say that the Iranians are going to nuke LA.

00:46:08.960 Well, as of right now, they don't have a nuclear bomb.

00:46:14.460 One interesting thing is, is Iran has not developed missiles that go beyond a certain range.

00:46:22.240 Doesn't mean they can't, but they have been hesitant to up until this point

00:46:26.780 because they don't want to be seen as threatening countries outside their region.

00:46:31.780 So why is Ted Cruz saying they're going to nuke LA?

00:46:33.680 I think, and again, I've been a big Ted Cruz fan over the years.

00:46:39.040 I've come to, you know, respect him on many levels.

00:46:42.400 I think he is repeating a talking point to help raise the level, in people's minds,

00:46:51.040 the level of threat that Iran actually imposed.

00:46:53.100 In order to justify American involvement in regime change.

00:46:57.900 Correct.

00:46:58.480 Let's be honest.

00:46:59.340 Iran has been a bad actor in the Middle East. 1.00

00:47:01.680 They have been a major sponsor of terrorism, indisputably.

00:47:07.340 But I believe their economy is the size of Pennsylvania.

00:47:11.120 Saudi Arabia alone spends four times what they do on defense.

00:47:14.960 They're bordered by Pakistan that has a nuclear weapon.

00:47:18.720 And they have a pretty decent relationship right now.

00:47:22.000 But over the years, there's been tension because Pakistan, Sunni, Iran, Shia,

00:47:25.700 you have Israel with a very capable nuclear triad and a very capable army.

00:47:31.960 So they're surrounded by countries in the region that have historical antagonisms with them.

00:47:38.420 And they simply right now do not possess the capability to hit the United States with conventional weapons.

00:47:46.080 What they do, and this is something we've talked about and need to be concerned about,

00:47:49.380 is they do have the ability to infiltrate terrorists in other countries.

00:47:55.840 That is a risk.

00:47:57.460 That is something we need to take into account, but it's not existential.

00:48:00.800 Like the threat posed by China with what is quickly emerging as the biggest navy in the world, 0.72

00:48:06.960 with hundreds of nuclear weapons, including intercontinental ballistic missiles against the United States.

00:48:12.120 China that could shut off a significant amount of trade and economic activity to the United States

00:48:18.980 and harm us in significant ways.

00:48:23.380 Iran is simply not an existential threat in the same way that China is,

00:48:27.260 and even Russia is with 6,000 nuclear weapons.

00:48:29.740 If there's one thing we've learned over the past couple of years,

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00:49:48.880 So why are we so focused on Iran?

00:49:52.240 There are a lot of reasons.

00:49:54.880 They can't be strictly limited to our national interest,

00:49:57.820 given what you just said.

00:49:58.980 Again, it goes back to, first and foremost,

00:50:02.860 and I know people want to talk about a whole host of other things,

00:50:06.140 but really, the thing that is driving this the most,

00:50:10.060 and our focus on Iran and the Middle East as a whole,

00:50:12.520 is that too many of our policymakers still believe in the idea

00:50:17.720 that America needs to be not simply the most powerful country in the world,

00:50:22.700 but the most dominant power in the world,

00:50:25.920 that we need to have dominance in a way that we are able to impose our values

00:50:31.780 on other parts of the world that have rejected them,

00:50:35.120 mainly liberalism,

00:50:36.500 that we need to use our dominance to achieve liberal hegemony.

00:50:39.940 And that leads us into conflict with countries

00:50:46.500 in regions that really shouldn't matter as much to us as they should.

00:50:50.840 And we do have some interest in the Middle East, to be clear,

00:50:52.640 and I can walk through those,

00:50:54.180 but the countries that just don't pose the type of threat

00:50:57.560 that a lot of people in Washington hype them up to be.

00:51:00.140 Wouldn't it be easier if you're the Iranian government 0.91

00:51:03.220 just to observe Pride Month in Tehran

00:51:05.960 and just get this over with,

00:51:07.820 and then there's no threat of an attack, right?

00:51:11.420 Well, you know, as Brett Stevens told my friend Saurabh Amari,

00:51:15.880 you know, he wants to ultimately see the 82nd Airborne

00:51:18.360 in the streets of Tehran, you know, 0.91

00:51:21.100 escorting a gay pride parade,

00:51:22.720 and that kind of sums that up.

00:51:24.800 Brett Stevens said that?

00:51:26.120 Yeah.

00:51:27.260 Man, I've known a lot of people in 56 years.

00:51:29.900 I don't know I've ever met anybody 0.97

00:51:31.340 weirder and dumber than Brett Stevens, 0.98

00:51:33.120 but that's just me. 0.96

00:51:34.160 I actually, this is going to sound weird.

00:51:36.000 I respect him because he just says it out loud.

00:51:40.380 He says, yeah, I want the United States

00:51:43.160 to be the most dominant power in the world

00:51:44.560 to spread liberal values.

00:51:48.240 I want the United States to pursue Brexit. 0.95

00:51:50.500 Brett Stevens is not even from this country.

00:51:52.000 I mean, it's like getting a lecture about America

00:51:54.420 from Brett Stevens is like...

00:51:56.000 Again, I just have...

00:51:57.800 I'm pretty sure he's from Mexico, but whatever.

00:52:00.140 He is?

00:52:01.460 Yeah.

00:52:02.160 I didn't know that.

00:52:02.960 But again, in a weird way,

00:52:04.940 I obviously find his views abhorrent.

00:52:07.180 I mean, he's said absolutely fundamentally racist things

00:52:09.800 about Arabs and other people.

00:52:14.580 He's got a weird obsession with genetics,

00:52:16.420 but he's honest.

00:52:18.500 He doesn't try to wrap it in this cloak

00:52:21.900 of American interests and American values.

00:52:26.440 He just comes out and says it.

00:52:27.840 And again, in a weird way,

00:52:29.500 I kind of appreciate that.

00:52:31.560 Yeah.

00:52:31.760 No, I mean, there's... 1.00

00:52:33.620 I guess that's where the being an idiot 1.00

00:52:36.080 kind of plays into it. 1.00

00:52:38.320 He just kind of says it out loud.

00:52:39.260 Isn't it funny essentially that...

00:52:41.340 I think you have, what, three or four

00:52:43.780 New York Times op-ed writers

00:52:46.360 that believe exactly what he believes.

00:52:49.840 I mean, David Brooks,

00:52:52.020 David French,

00:52:54.160 him,

00:52:54.900 Tom Friedman's kind of evolving...

00:52:57.700 I don't even know where Tom Friedman is these days,

00:52:59.140 but essentially they...

00:53:00.500 Bethesda.

00:53:01.200 Yeah.

00:53:02.860 They hold the same views.

00:53:05.680 The supposed, you know,

00:53:07.420 left-wing paper.

00:53:08.920 And there's some...

00:53:09.400 Look, they've...

00:53:10.200 You know, credit New York Times.

00:53:11.140 Sometimes they do have some good stuff

00:53:12.660 on their op-ed pages,

00:53:14.040 but, you know,

00:53:15.860 that you essentially have four op-ed columnists

00:53:18.640 that believe essentially the same thing.

00:53:20.580 They just express it differently.

00:53:22.020 Like, David French would never be that.

00:53:23.600 David French would be the guy

00:53:24.800 that masks it and, like,

00:53:26.640 this is what's good for America and America... 0.63

00:53:28.720 But they're all violence worshipers,

00:53:30.200 David French especially.

00:53:31.400 And there is a kind of, like,

00:53:32.940 weak man compensates 0.85

00:53:35.060 through promoting killing 0.96

00:53:38.620 in other parts of the world.

00:53:40.100 You know, it's like,

00:53:40.740 oh, this sort of same weird cuck syndrome

00:53:43.780 they all have.

00:53:45.320 No, it is, though.

00:53:46.400 It is.

00:53:46.880 I mean, you don't have to be Sigmund Freud

00:53:47.920 to see, like, David French

00:53:49.440 as, like, a psychosexual thing

00:53:50.600 that's going on here.

00:53:51.480 Yeah.

00:53:51.840 Oh, they're so handsome, though.

00:53:53.460 I mean, I will say this is what David is,

00:53:55.900 you know... 1.00

00:53:56.560 I'm a much bigger dick than you are, 1.00

00:53:58.920 and I'm sorry. 0.99

00:53:59.620 You're such a nice person.

00:54:00.400 No, I...

00:54:00.900 Well, you bring up certain people, 0.99

00:54:02.240 I will be a dick. 0.98

00:54:03.120 I think David... 0.99

00:54:04.680 He's so interesting

00:54:06.160 because he brought away

00:54:07.600 such a much different...

00:54:10.680 And I know there's people that,

00:54:13.180 you know,

00:54:14.160 mocked his military service.

00:54:15.280 I'm not going to do that.

00:54:16.520 But he brought away, like,

00:54:17.980 a much different understanding

00:54:19.760 of his service in Iraq

00:54:21.380 than a lot of other people.

00:54:23.260 And I've just kind of found

00:54:23.900 that fascinating.

00:54:25.080 And I think,

00:54:26.640 in a lot of ways,

00:54:28.120 his views

00:54:31.320 are really increasingly...

00:54:34.480 The way he talks about foreign policy,

00:54:37.160 I think he's more of a barometer

00:54:38.380 of where the center

00:54:39.880 of the Democrat Party is

00:54:41.200 than the dying neoconservative fringe

00:54:44.320 of the Republican Party is.

00:54:46.040 He is representing increasingly

00:54:47.600 where the Democrat Party is,

00:54:48.900 not the Republican Party

00:54:49.920 on foreign policy.

00:54:52.200 And we brought this up last time.

00:54:54.580 Remember,

00:54:55.240 the Democrat Party platform

00:54:58.180 in 2020

00:54:58.840 was more hawkish on Iran.

00:55:03.840 They did a 180 from...

00:55:05.680 Excuse me, in 2024.

00:55:07.020 They did a 180

00:55:07.900 from where they were in 2020

00:55:09.640 on Iran in 2024.

00:55:11.600 And it was more hawkish.

00:55:13.180 And there's a world

00:55:13.820 where you could add Liz Cheney

00:55:15.240 as a national security advisor

00:55:16.560 or as a secretary of defense.

00:55:17.960 That's just the darkest thing

00:55:19.120 I can imagine.

00:55:20.200 So you...

00:55:20.640 I just want to go back

00:55:21.100 to something you said a second ago.

00:55:22.000 You said the dying

00:55:23.560 Republican neocon fringe.

00:55:26.900 Of course,

00:55:27.260 I love the sound of that.

00:55:28.500 But it's hard to see...

00:55:29.800 You're looking, obviously,

00:55:31.020 more broadly than I am

00:55:32.520 because right now,

00:55:33.540 I see Fox News

00:55:34.580 as just this

00:55:35.320 pure craze

00:55:37.560 neocon war propaganda operation.

00:55:40.140 Mark Levin,

00:55:41.060 the least credible person

00:55:42.720 in broadcasting,

00:55:44.060 is like in charge

00:55:44.920 of the government.

00:55:45.380 I mean, I'm overstating, of course,

00:55:46.860 but it's like

00:55:47.240 they seem very powerful right now,

00:55:49.120 that part of the Republican Party.

00:55:50.540 Mitch McConnell,

00:55:51.940 Tom Cotton,

00:55:53.420 Ted Cruz,

00:55:54.840 Mark Levin.

00:55:56.600 But you're saying

00:55:57.540 they're a dying fringe?

00:55:59.740 Again, it's...

00:56:01.040 Looking at it right now,

00:56:02.820 it's very easy to think

00:56:05.500 that the neocons

00:56:07.160 have once again

00:56:08.000 taken over

00:56:08.620 the foreign policy apparatus

00:56:10.040 of the Republican Party.

00:56:12.320 But I think we need

00:56:12.860 to look at a couple things.

00:56:15.020 There is no popular support

00:56:16.980 for going to war

00:56:20.680 directly with Iran.

00:56:22.260 We have to acknowledge

00:56:22.980 there is concern

00:56:24.540 about Iran

00:56:25.620 getting a nuclear weapon,

00:56:26.480 but there's not

00:56:27.180 a constituency

00:56:28.580 for going to war

00:56:30.600 with Iran.

00:56:31.140 And there hasn't really

00:56:31.900 ever been one,

00:56:32.820 but most of your Republican voters

00:56:34.960 don't want this.

00:56:36.600 I looked up the numbers,

00:56:37.560 the polling numbers,

00:56:38.200 and I think the AIDS virus

00:56:39.820 is more popular

00:56:40.720 than the idea

00:56:41.760 of going to war with Iran.

00:56:42.860 I think it's actually

00:56:43.340 16% national support.

00:56:45.540 Yeah, and that was

00:56:46.320 from YouGov.

00:56:47.220 Brookings has done polls.

00:56:48.960 The University of Maryland,

00:56:50.860 there was one joke

00:56:51.880 of a poll

00:56:52.300 that was clearly manipulated

00:56:53.360 that's being circulated

00:56:54.240 by the neocons,

00:56:55.140 but there's poll after poll

00:56:57.580 from both liberal,

00:56:59.200 nonpartisan,

00:56:59.900 conservative institutions

00:57:01.240 show there's not

00:57:02.040 broad support for this.

00:57:03.440 In addition,

00:57:05.240 you now have

00:57:06.380 within the administration

00:57:08.740 a lot of people

00:57:11.580 that don't look like

00:57:12.980 the types of people

00:57:13.780 that used to staff

00:57:14.720 Republican administrations,

00:57:16.260 mainly George W. Bush administration,

00:57:17.880 but also you could argue

00:57:18.820 the first Trump term

00:57:20.000 in terms of foreign policy.

00:57:21.060 These are people

00:57:21.980 like Bridge Colby,

00:57:23.700 people like Joe Kent,

00:57:25.520 people like Michael Anton,

00:57:26.780 who have different ideas

00:57:28.460 about American foreign policy

00:57:30.580 and are much different

00:57:31.620 than, say,

00:57:32.360 the types of people

00:57:33.060 that a Paul Wolfowitz

00:57:33.960 or a John Bolton

00:57:35.580 would hire into administration.

00:57:37.960 So they don't have

00:57:40.040 a lot of people

00:57:40.880 within the power structure

00:57:43.760 right now,

00:57:44.400 at least on the political side,

00:57:46.100 within the career side

00:57:47.340 and the military,

00:57:48.220 absolutely.

00:57:50.100 And then in addition,

00:57:51.320 you have to acknowledge

00:57:52.040 is that there's now

00:57:52.980 an institutional structure

00:57:54.480 that didn't exist in 2016

00:57:56.060 of organizations

00:57:57.260 that are able to get

00:58:00.420 a message out

00:58:02.120 around foreign policy

00:58:03.220 that challenges

00:58:04.860 what, you know,

00:58:06.120 Ben Rhodes called the blob,

00:58:07.660 even though he's a card-carrying

00:58:08.640 member of the blob,

00:58:10.060 these traditional organizations

00:58:11.500 that push for American primacy

00:58:12.880 and intervention.

00:58:13.880 So you have a lot of pieces

00:58:16.680 coming together

00:58:17.540 that show that

00:58:19.280 neoconservatism on the right

00:58:21.880 is in retreat.

00:58:23.940 But that's in a lot of cases

00:58:25.960 when movements

00:58:26.860 can be most dangerous,

00:58:28.580 is that I really sense

00:58:30.160 in a lot of ways

00:58:31.340 why they have gone all out

00:58:32.840 is because they're desperate.

00:58:34.800 Is they see,

00:58:36.320 particularly on the right,

00:58:37.080 the younger cohort coming up.

00:58:38.520 And we talked about this.

00:58:39.620 A lot of these people

00:58:40.260 make you and me

00:58:41.240 look like Paul Wolfowitz

00:58:42.160 in terms of foreign policy beliefs.

00:58:44.480 I feel very,

00:58:45.820 I mean,

00:58:46.120 I always say this,

00:58:46.760 but I feel very moderate.

00:58:47.940 I am very moderate

00:58:48.860 just by temperament.

00:58:50.200 And I don't meet really

00:58:52.560 any moderate young people

00:58:53.820 on these questions at all.

00:58:55.560 And they see that.

00:58:56.640 So that's why

00:58:57.320 there is such an all-out effort

00:58:59.380 right now to push this

00:59:01.300 because they think

00:59:02.380 it's their last chance.

00:59:03.620 I think they're right.

00:59:05.740 I think they're right.

00:59:07.120 So I think even now

00:59:10.560 we're sort of officially

00:59:12.920 clinging to the idea

00:59:14.120 that Israel's goal here 0.95

00:59:16.020 is a non-nuclear Iran.

00:59:19.520 That's not true.

00:59:20.480 Their goal is regime change,

00:59:21.540 I think it's fair to say.

00:59:23.540 But I do think

00:59:24.340 Donald Trump's goal

00:59:25.100 is not regime change.

00:59:26.100 I don't think he wants to be,

00:59:27.480 I know he doesn't want

00:59:28.280 to be in a regime change

00:59:29.040 where he doesn't want

00:59:29.680 Iran to have a bomb. 0.88

00:59:30.700 He said that a million times.

00:59:32.660 My question is a practical one.

00:59:34.400 is it possible

00:59:35.900 to shut down

00:59:38.440 a nuclear program

00:59:39.240 with an air campaign?

00:59:41.340 I think you can roll it back.

00:59:43.040 I think you can

00:59:43.800 severely damage it.

00:59:45.200 But look,

00:59:46.620 I'll use an argument

00:59:48.020 that the advocates

00:59:49.480 of the Iraq war made

00:59:50.760 is that

00:59:51.420 you can't truly shut down

00:59:54.540 a weapons of mass destruction campaign

00:59:56.780 with certain people

00:59:58.200 in charge of the country.

00:59:59.680 You can't truly shut it down

01:00:01.520 because you can't

01:00:02.400 trust inspectors.

01:00:03.540 You can't truly

01:00:04.540 trust intelligence.

01:00:06.960 They were doing that

01:00:08.160 in a very manipulative way,

01:00:09.220 but there's a sliver

01:00:10.020 of truth in that.

01:00:10.800 So if you truly

01:00:11.600 want to get rid of

01:00:13.920 an Iranian nuclear weapon program

01:00:16.460 and make sure

01:00:17.180 it's totally dismantled,

01:00:19.460 it's likely going to require

01:00:21.680 a regime change

01:00:23.440 or some type of occupation

01:00:24.740 or invasion.

01:00:28.600 That may sound extreme,

01:00:30.240 but if you stop

01:00:31.700 and think about it,

01:00:33.020 that's the truth.

01:00:34.120 Now, you can roll it again.

01:00:35.380 So I have thought about it,

01:00:37.740 but not as deeply

01:00:38.600 as you have,

01:00:39.200 I would bet.

01:00:39.980 Can you flesh that out

01:00:41.080 a little bit?

01:00:41.640 Why would an air campaign

01:00:43.960 not solve the nuclear problem?

01:00:46.700 Because you would need

01:00:48.020 to verify that

01:00:49.120 all the centrifuges

01:00:50.380 are destroyed.

01:00:51.300 You need to verify

01:00:52.060 that all the knowledge,

01:00:54.360 both scientists,

01:00:56.340 other engineers

01:00:59.600 that they are accounted for,

01:01:02.020 in some cases killed,

01:01:03.440 that there's no files remaining,

01:01:06.020 and that all the centrifuges,

01:01:08.240 all the different pieces,

01:01:09.300 all the nuclear material,

01:01:11.440 the triggers,

01:01:12.280 anything that could be

01:01:13.100 part of this

01:01:13.800 are destroyed.

01:01:14.760 And then any development

01:01:15.680 of the delivery systems,

01:01:17.760 it is incredibly difficult

01:01:19.760 to do that.

01:01:21.880 It's impossible to do that

01:01:23.400 purely through air.

01:01:24.220 You're going to need inspections.

01:01:26.760 You're going to need people

01:01:27.400 on the ground verifying this.

01:01:29.620 And again,

01:01:29.940 what we've seen before

01:01:30.900 is the argument

01:01:32.400 that the inspectors

01:01:33.540 aren't going to find everything.

01:01:35.140 So I think you can kind of see

01:01:36.060 where this is going.

01:01:38.200 And so the argument

01:01:39.940 likely that you're going to see,

01:01:41.700 and it's not totally incorrect,

01:01:43.180 is that to truly get rid

01:01:44.480 of the threat

01:01:45.000 of a nuclear Iran,

01:01:46.500 an Islamic republic

01:01:47.580 with a nuclear bomb, 0.99

01:01:49.200 is you're going to need 0.94

01:01:49.820 regime change.

01:01:51.140 And so,

01:01:52.000 as I've said previously,

01:01:53.300 that's why in my mind,

01:01:54.220 this really isn't about

01:01:56.080 a nuclear bomb.

01:01:57.880 And I think,

01:01:58.240 I want to be clear,

01:01:58.740 for President Trump,

01:01:59.460 it is.

01:01:59.840 And for a lot of good people

01:02:01.980 who rightly are concerned

01:02:03.540 about nuclear Iran,

01:02:04.640 it is about that.

01:02:06.860 But for a lot of others,

01:02:07.740 it's about regime change.

01:02:09.080 And I think that

01:02:09.900 the consequences of that

01:02:11.880 for the United States,

01:02:13.160 for the Middle East,

01:02:13.880 even for Israel,

01:02:14.900 have not been thought through.

01:02:16.920 Because a lot of people,

01:02:18.320 just like in Iraq, 0.76

01:02:19.500 they aren't thinking about

01:02:20.460 what comes next

01:02:21.440 if we get rid of Iran 1.00

01:02:22.900 as an Islamic republic.

01:02:24.600 We just had the Iraq war.

01:02:26.680 I mean,

01:02:27.040 that was,

01:02:27.440 it only started 22 years ago.

01:02:31.080 And we still have troops there.

01:02:33.300 We just got out of Afghanistan

01:02:35.120 a few years ago

01:02:36.640 after 20 years.

01:02:37.420 Like,

01:02:37.700 the memory

01:02:38.440 is not just fresh.

01:02:39.640 It's not even a memory.

01:02:40.480 It's still a present reality.

01:02:41.520 We still have troops there.

01:02:42.740 What are you talking about?

01:02:43.640 Iraq is a thriving

01:02:46.400 liberal democracy.

01:02:48.480 Afghanistan

01:02:49.000 just achieved

01:02:51.100 100%

01:02:51.920 female literacy.

01:02:53.400 I don't,

01:02:53.640 I'm like...

01:02:54.420 Which was always the goal.

01:02:56.660 You know,

01:02:57.340 I don't know

01:02:57.580 what you're talking about.

01:02:58.420 But, you know,

01:02:59.500 joking aside is,

01:03:01.420 there's still a lot of people

01:03:04.620 who think

01:03:06.140 we can do this.

01:03:08.200 That we can actually

01:03:09.760 change a regime

01:03:12.140 and instill liberalism

01:03:13.720 through

01:03:14.240 the,

01:03:15.240 the point of,

01:03:16.340 the barrel of a gun.

01:03:17.960 That,

01:03:18.420 there is still that thinking

01:03:19.480 in Washington, D.C.

01:03:20.440 that they have learned

01:03:21.240 nothing from Iraq,

01:03:22.320 from Syria,

01:03:22.980 from Libya,

01:03:23.740 from Afghanistan,

01:03:24.820 from Yemen,

01:03:26.420 from other places.

01:03:28.700 It just,

01:03:29.440 it does not work.

01:03:31.260 My problem is

01:03:32.360 bigger,

01:03:33.340 which is

01:03:33.980 what happens

01:03:34.640 to the American empire,

01:03:35.700 which is obviously contracting.

01:03:37.540 We don't have the will

01:03:38.500 or the money

01:03:39.000 to sustain it

01:03:39.820 at current levels,

01:03:40.880 obviously.

01:03:42.140 You know,

01:03:43.120 we are challenged

01:03:43.900 by China

01:03:45.820 and maybe

01:03:47.140 other countries

01:03:47.880 for,

01:03:48.520 you know,

01:03:49.700 supremacy

01:03:50.120 over shipping lanes

01:03:52.040 and over the air

01:03:53.100 and all this,

01:03:53.520 you know,

01:03:53.700 things are changing

01:03:54.380 really,

01:03:54.720 really fast.

01:03:55.380 So the empire

01:03:56.420 is getting smaller,

01:03:58.120 but there's got to be

01:03:59.780 a way to unwind it

01:04:01.100 slowly,

01:04:03.240 thoughtfully,

01:04:03.780 with minimal damage.

01:04:05.720 I think our adversaries,

01:04:07.720 not even enemies,

01:04:08.400 but just challengers

01:04:09.320 to our position

01:04:10.580 would like to crumble

01:04:11.960 in one day.

01:04:12.960 So there's this incentive 0.79

01:04:14.240 to really kick the legs

01:04:16.060 out from under America 0.97

01:04:17.000 right now.

01:04:17.700 Do you feel that?

01:04:19.500 I believe so.

01:04:20.940 Yeah,

01:04:21.260 I think so.

01:04:22.840 And

01:04:23.040 there,

01:04:25.660 again,

01:04:26.600 there's a lot of people,

01:04:28.700 I think,

01:04:29.440 in China

01:04:29.860 that would love us

01:04:30.660 to see bogged down

01:04:31.480 in the Middle East.

01:04:32.560 you and I,

01:04:35.200 you know,

01:04:35.700 are,

01:04:36.620 we don't believe

01:04:37.820 that we should be

01:04:38.720 involved in the Ukraine war,

01:04:40.740 but if you're somebody

01:04:42.460 that thinks that,

01:04:43.460 that,

01:04:43.820 you know,

01:04:44.120 Ukraine is the most 1.00

01:04:45.120 important thing

01:04:45.840 for a liberal democracy,

01:04:47.600 this war is going

01:04:48.540 to make it harder,

01:04:49.360 if not impossible,

01:04:50.540 to support Ukraine.

01:04:52.800 You know,

01:04:53.440 it's going to make it harder.

01:04:54.680 Why is that?

01:04:55.500 Why is that?

01:04:56.200 Why would a war with Iran

01:04:57.220 make it impossible

01:04:57.980 to continue supporting Ukraine?

01:04:59.660 It's a good question.

01:05:00.160 So,

01:05:01.120 after the October 7th attacks,

01:05:04.740 you had Joe Biden

01:05:06.880 go on 60 Minutes

01:05:08.200 and say,

01:05:09.600 after he was asked

01:05:10.380 by the host,

01:05:10.940 I forget what host it was,

01:05:12.080 but he was asked,

01:05:13.040 are we going to be able

01:05:14.360 to support

01:05:15.000 both Israel and Ukraine?

01:05:16.900 And,

01:05:17.240 you know,

01:05:17.540 his dying brain said,

01:05:18.740 oh,

01:05:18.920 come on,

01:05:19.300 man,

01:05:19.540 of course we can.

01:05:20.260 We're the most powerful

01:05:21.040 country ever.

01:05:21.900 We've,

01:05:22.260 we won World War II.

01:05:23.180 Of course we can do both.

01:05:24.740 And a week later,

01:05:26.260 the United States

01:05:27.560 was forced to redirect

01:05:28.800 a shipment of

01:05:29.840 artillery shells

01:05:30.760 from Ukraine

01:05:32.040 to Israel

01:05:32.700 to support them

01:05:33.520 in their fight

01:05:33.920 against Hamas.

01:05:35.540 And that right there

01:05:36.580 just shattered the illusion

01:05:37.620 that we can do both.

01:05:39.580 Of artillery shells.

01:05:40.600 So,

01:05:40.760 pretty low-tech stuff.

01:05:42.240 Right.

01:05:42.740 And we had

01:05:43.840 about,

01:05:45.480 I believe,

01:05:46.320 six,

01:05:46.620 seven months

01:05:47.020 prior to

01:05:48.180 October 7th

01:05:50.180 when Netanyahu

01:05:51.380 was out of power

01:05:53.620 for a bit.

01:05:54.560 I think it was

01:05:54.880 Holly Bennett

01:05:56.100 was in charge.

01:05:57.240 Yep.

01:05:57.360 he allowed the,

01:06:00.900 not allowed,

01:06:01.840 but signed off

01:06:02.780 on the United States

01:06:03.800 to pull

01:06:04.940 all our artillery shells

01:06:06.700 out of a pre-position

01:06:07.640 stockpile

01:06:08.260 to give them

01:06:08.840 to the Ukrainians

01:06:09.700 to support them

01:06:10.360 in their ultimately

01:06:10.900 failed counter-offensive.

01:06:12.880 So,

01:06:13.040 when October 7th

01:06:13.840 kicked off

01:06:14.320 and they needed

01:06:14.680 certain types

01:06:15.180 of ammunition,

01:06:16.160 the stockpile

01:06:17.420 that we had staged

01:06:18.560 to support Israel

01:06:19.280 in times of crisis

01:06:20.060 was drained

01:06:20.880 and we could not

01:06:21.660 refill it

01:06:22.320 because we were

01:06:23.720 giving the Ukrainians

01:06:24.920 more artillery shells

01:06:26.140 per month

01:06:27.520 than we could

01:06:28.220 produce.

01:06:30.040 So,

01:06:30.220 we were drawing

01:06:31.180 down our stockpiles

01:06:32.140 to very low levels.

01:06:33.600 Now,

01:06:33.760 that's just artillery.

01:06:35.020 I don't,

01:06:35.680 at least right now,

01:06:36.400 think there's going

01:06:36.860 to be a lot

01:06:37.240 of artillery

01:06:37.800 battles.

01:06:40.340 At least,

01:06:40.900 I hope not.

01:06:41.340 If that happens,

01:06:42.000 it's gotten really bad.

01:06:42.860 But the most precious

01:06:44.760 munition

01:06:46.260 and asset,

01:06:48.160 military asset

01:06:48.760 in the world

01:06:49.300 right now

01:06:49.820 is air defense.

01:06:51.740 So,

01:06:52.200 the Ukrainians

01:06:53.020 need

01:06:53.620 Patriot missiles

01:06:54.880 and there's been

01:06:56.820 a lot of discussion

01:06:57.520 in the press.

01:06:58.320 That's Zelensky's

01:06:59.240 number one demand

01:07:00.060 when he talks to

01:07:00.920 the United States.

01:07:02.060 You want Patriot missiles?

01:07:03.040 Well,

01:07:03.980 the United States

01:07:04.680 is going to need

01:07:05.820 a lot of Patriot missiles

01:07:07.340 to defend our troops

01:07:09.240 in a war with Iran.

01:07:10.640 So,

01:07:10.920 if a war with Iran

01:07:11.760 kicks off

01:07:12.280 and we're firing

01:07:12.920 through our

01:07:14.700 supply of Patriot missiles,

01:07:15.920 we just simply

01:07:16.460 aren't going to be able

01:07:16.980 to give the Ukrainians 0.99

01:07:17.740 anymore.

01:07:18.000 Sounds like we're

01:07:18.840 undersupplied.

01:07:20.660 Absolutely,

01:07:21.220 we are.

01:07:21.720 And this,

01:07:22.100 again,

01:07:22.360 a lot of this,

01:07:23.520 we can talk about

01:07:24.280 ideology all day.

01:07:25.780 But at the end

01:07:26.360 of the day,

01:07:27.180 this is really

01:07:28.260 a math problem.

01:07:29.000 We were talking

01:07:29.500 about that earlier

01:07:30.280 with the race

01:07:31.320 that Iran and Iraq 0.59

01:07:32.480 are in.

01:07:33.080 Or,

01:07:33.220 excuse me,

01:07:33.500 Iran and Israel.

01:07:36.200 You know,

01:07:37.040 it's

01:07:37.900 our ability

01:07:40.420 to sustain

01:07:41.940 fights like this

01:07:42.980 for long periods

01:07:44.220 of time

01:07:44.600 is extremely

01:07:45.240 limited.

01:07:46.160 And

01:07:46.520 you're

01:07:47.760 in a very

01:07:49.720 precarious situation

01:07:50.740 as a result of this.

01:07:51.780 What do they do

01:07:52.180 with a trillion dollars

01:07:52.920 a year,

01:07:53.360 exactly?

01:07:54.900 That's a good question.

01:07:56.000 No,

01:07:56.320 for real.

01:07:57.120 I'm not being mean.

01:07:57.860 I mean,

01:07:58.060 I respect there are

01:07:59.160 some people in the military

01:08:00.220 officers I respect.

01:08:03.080 Not a ton,

01:08:03.960 but some.

01:08:04.420 I've met some

01:08:04.920 really smart ones.

01:08:05.620 But,

01:08:05.840 like,

01:08:06.200 no one thought ahead.

01:08:07.920 You can't even

01:08:08.400 produce enough

01:08:08.880 artillery

01:08:09.920 to supply

01:08:10.560 Ukraine

01:08:11.100 and Israel.

01:08:12.040 Not huge countries.

01:08:13.140 Like,

01:08:13.320 what is that?

01:08:14.820 So,

01:08:15.680 if you look at

01:08:19.480 a system

01:08:21.360 like the Iron Dome

01:08:23.160 in Israel,

01:08:23.820 now,

01:08:24.680 everybody kind of

01:08:25.380 talks about,

01:08:26.460 they call Israel's 0.91

01:08:27.460 entire system,

01:08:28.520 the Iron Dome.

01:08:29.780 It's really,

01:08:30.940 Iron Dome is

01:08:31.880 designed to shoot

01:08:33.820 down cheap rockets

01:08:34.920 from Hamas

01:08:35.440 and Hezbollah.

01:08:35.960 The systems

01:08:37.180 that are being used

01:08:37.800 now are

01:08:38.460 David's Sling

01:08:39.260 and the Arrow

01:08:39.940 system and then

01:08:40.760 our Thad system

01:08:41.820 and some of our

01:08:42.560 naval ships.

01:08:43.820 Yeah.

01:08:44.700 But the Iron Dome

01:08:45.820 is designed

01:08:47.100 to be

01:08:47.580 a little more

01:08:48.560 cheap 0.99

01:08:49.000 and to shoot 0.96

01:08:50.600 more in mass. 0.96

01:08:52.800 We don't have

01:08:53.900 enough systems

01:08:55.180 similar to that

01:08:56.340 where we can

01:08:56.860 produce a lot

01:08:57.860 of things

01:08:58.400 in mass

01:08:59.280 and in quantity.

01:09:01.180 We focus

01:09:02.080 on building

01:09:02.540 these expensive

01:09:03.480 systems

01:09:04.220 with a lot

01:09:04.640 of bells

01:09:04.980 and whistles

01:09:05.560 because

01:09:06.460 we still

01:09:07.780 haven't

01:09:08.300 adapted

01:09:08.760 to the

01:09:09.140 fact

01:09:09.520 that

01:09:10.480 these wars

01:09:12.700 that are

01:09:13.240 quick

01:09:13.700 and cheap

01:09:14.340 and easy

01:09:14.980 are not

01:09:16.340 necessarily

01:09:16.620 cheap

01:09:16.940 but are

01:09:17.360 relatively

01:09:17.940 quick.

01:09:18.320 We don't

01:09:18.540 use a lot

01:09:18.980 of expensive

01:09:19.480 munitions.

01:09:20.860 Those are

01:09:21.760 going to be

01:09:22.440 few and far

01:09:22.880 between

01:09:23.280 if nonexistent

01:09:24.260 in the future.

01:09:25.360 Our defense

01:09:26.240 industrial base

01:09:27.080 still hasn't

01:09:27.720 adapted to the

01:09:28.280 fact that we

01:09:28.780 just need

01:09:29.180 to produce

01:09:30.580 more

01:09:31.160 cheaper

01:09:32.720 and in

01:09:33.060 some cases

01:09:33.500 less advanced

01:09:34.340 weapons

01:09:34.880 in larger

01:09:35.840 scale

01:09:36.520 instead of

01:09:38.720 building

01:09:38.980 these highly

01:09:39.440 advanced

01:09:39.880 weapons

01:09:40.200 with all

01:09:40.480 these bells

01:09:40.880 and whistles

01:09:41.400 in smaller

01:09:44.000 numbers.

01:09:44.500 Right now,

01:09:45.300 again,

01:09:45.600 it's public

01:09:45.980 knowledge.

01:09:46.740 We only

01:09:47.000 produce about

01:09:48.080 I'd say

01:09:49.240 100-150

01:09:50.180 and it could

01:09:51.080 actually be

01:09:51.540 lower

01:09:51.920 interceptors,

01:09:53.900 so ammunition

01:09:54.620 for the

01:09:55.100 THAAD system,

01:09:56.100 which is our

01:09:56.580 most advanced

01:09:57.380 anti-ballistic

01:09:58.060 missile system.

01:09:58.660 We have

01:09:59.000 only produced

01:10:00.000 around 900

01:10:02.160 to 1,000

01:10:03.140 THAAD

01:10:04.000 interceptors.

01:10:05.540 Just 900

01:10:06.500 to 1,000.

01:10:07.280 That's total?

01:10:07.960 I'm not

01:10:08.340 talking launchers.

01:10:09.460 I'm talking

01:10:10.020 the rounds

01:10:10.720 for them.

01:10:11.200 Yeah, yeah.

01:10:11.980 So,

01:10:12.620 Iran has 0.98

01:10:13.340 about,

01:10:15.060 depends on

01:10:15.700 the estimate,

01:10:16.280 about 2,000 to

01:10:16.820 3,000 ballistic

01:10:18.260 missiles that

01:10:18.860 can reach

01:10:19.340 Israel and

01:10:20.320 maybe it's

01:10:20.820 probably

01:10:21.040 significantly

01:10:21.500 less

01:10:21.780 but Israelis

01:10:22.260 but you

01:10:23.480 see how

01:10:23.800 this quickly

01:10:24.240 becomes a

01:10:24.720 math problem.

01:10:25.420 We've only

01:10:25.780 built between

01:10:26.400 900,000.

01:10:27.200 They have

01:10:28.140 up to 2,000

01:10:29.780 types of

01:10:30.300 missiles that

01:10:31.840 the THAAD

01:10:33.460 is designed

01:10:33.900 to shoot 0.88

01:10:34.180 down and

01:10:34.940 if you're

01:10:35.300 assuming 100%

01:10:36.200 success rate,

01:10:36.940 you don't have

01:10:37.320 enough interceptors.

01:10:37.800 Again,

01:10:38.120 I refer to the

01:10:38.920 previous question,

01:10:39.620 what do we

01:10:39.880 spend a trillion

01:10:40.420 dollars a year

01:10:41.040 on?

01:10:41.660 We spend

01:10:42.160 it on

01:10:42.740 those

01:10:43.360 hard to

01:10:45.320 produce

01:10:45.820 expensive

01:10:47.080 systems and

01:10:47.900 some of

01:10:48.220 them,

01:10:48.960 we have to

01:10:49.260 admit,

01:10:49.980 are very

01:10:50.380 capable.

01:10:51.280 F-35 has

01:10:52.000 gotten a lot

01:10:52.360 of criticism

01:10:52.780 over the

01:10:53.280 years but

01:10:53.740 I think

01:10:54.240 we've

01:10:55.200 adapted and

01:10:55.820 turned it

01:10:56.080 into a

01:10:56.320 fairly capable

01:10:56.880 system.

01:10:57.400 Some people

01:10:57.780 may disagree

01:10:58.560 with me on

01:10:59.100 that but

01:10:59.920 I think

01:11:00.260 it is a

01:11:01.060 capable

01:11:01.280 system but

01:11:01.720 we haven't

01:11:02.200 been able

01:11:02.560 to build

01:11:03.180 and that

01:11:04.220 has a lot

01:11:04.760 to do with

01:11:05.100 how we

01:11:05.360 funded it

01:11:05.980 enough of

01:11:06.820 those or

01:11:07.520 enough of

01:11:07.980 certain types

01:11:08.660 of ammunition

01:11:10.100 to really

01:11:11.600 fight a

01:11:12.200 long extended

01:11:13.260 war against

01:11:14.220 an enemy

01:11:14.820 that has

01:11:15.780 either a

01:11:16.160 lot of

01:11:16.420 people or

01:11:17.640 can produce

01:11:18.280 a lot of

01:11:18.720 things like

01:11:19.180 cheap drones

01:11:19.920 or cheap

01:11:20.880 rockets or

01:11:22.220 cheap indirect

01:11:23.560 fire weapons.

01:11:24.380 we just

01:11:24.880 are not

01:11:25.360 quite set

01:11:26.140 up for

01:11:26.400 that type

01:11:26.740 of fight

01:11:27.020 yet.

01:11:27.520 Well, I

01:11:27.640 mean, Russia

01:11:28.020 still occupies

01:11:28.880 eastern Ukraine.

01:11:30.280 Exactly.

01:11:30.840 And for

01:11:31.540 that, I

01:11:32.280 mean, that

01:11:32.600 is where

01:11:33.160 it should

01:11:34.180 have become

01:11:34.560 patently

01:11:34.940 obvious to

01:11:35.640 us that

01:11:36.140 we have

01:11:36.700 to change

01:11:37.120 how we

01:11:37.420 do this.

01:11:37.800 And again,

01:11:39.360 credit to

01:11:40.040 some of my

01:11:40.440 colleagues at

01:11:40.980 DOD is

01:11:41.540 they know

01:11:42.140 it.

01:11:43.200 We fortunately

01:11:44.080 just confirmed

01:11:44.960 for under

01:11:45.560 secretary of

01:11:46.140 acquisition

01:11:46.580 and sustainment

01:11:47.800 Mike Duffy,

01:11:48.620 I think Steve

01:11:49.100 Feinberg knows

01:11:49.740 that.

01:11:50.500 They know but

01:11:51.000 they have a

01:11:51.320 big fight.

01:11:52.060 They're going

01:11:52.260 to be

01:11:52.480 fighting a

01:11:53.960 lot of

01:11:54.320 entrenched

01:11:54.680 interest to

01:11:56.060 fix that.

01:11:56.360 It seems

01:11:56.760 like the

01:11:57.160 wrong time

01:11:58.060 to start

01:11:58.520 swaggering

01:11:59.040 around trying

01:11:59.460 to start

01:11:59.740 new wars

01:12:00.140 with people.

01:12:02.120 Yeah, exactly.

01:12:03.440 We are

01:12:03.980 trying to

01:12:04.400 fix a lot

01:12:04.880 of things

01:12:05.400 and we're

01:12:07.660 going to

01:12:07.820 have to put

01:12:08.200 a lot of

01:12:08.500 those things

01:12:08.820 on a

01:12:09.060 back burner

01:12:09.580 if we

01:12:10.240 get into

01:12:10.500 a major

01:12:10.840 regional

01:12:11.240 fight.

01:12:16.200 If we

01:12:18.360 throw these

01:12:19.260 and I

01:12:19.740 again,

01:12:20.080 I don't

01:12:21.060 know this

01:12:21.300 is going

01:12:21.460 to happen

01:12:21.780 but the

01:12:22.120 president's

01:12:22.860 stated goal

01:12:23.740 is to make

01:12:24.200 sure that

01:12:24.820 Iran doesn't 1.00

01:12:25.540 have nuclear

01:12:26.060 weapons.

01:12:27.280 I just want

01:12:27.720 to restate

01:12:28.320 you don't

01:12:29.200 believe as a

01:12:29.720 practical matter

01:12:30.460 that's achievable

01:12:31.200 with a couple

01:12:31.840 bunker buster

01:12:32.580 strikes.

01:12:34.580 I do not.

01:12:35.720 And again,

01:12:36.140 I hope I'm

01:12:36.580 wrong.

01:12:37.640 I think the

01:12:38.340 best,

01:12:38.820 the least

01:12:39.120 worst option

01:12:39.860 is an

01:12:41.180 imperfect

01:12:41.840 diplomatic

01:12:42.660 solution.

01:12:44.420 That is

01:12:45.120 the best

01:12:46.180 least risky

01:12:47.640 option.

01:12:48.320 probably the

01:12:49.880 only option.

01:12:50.800 I mean,

01:12:50.940 you can't

01:12:51.460 force your

01:12:52.700 wife to

01:12:53.140 love you.

01:12:54.860 Can't beat

01:12:55.640 her up

01:12:55.860 until she

01:12:56.160 loves you.

01:12:57.060 In the

01:12:57.620 end,

01:12:58.080 everything is

01:12:58.520 voluntary.

01:12:58.920 You have

01:12:59.020 to convince

01:12:59.460 people.

01:13:00.760 Well,

01:13:00.980 you're the

01:13:02.040 military guy.

01:13:02.580 You tell me.

01:13:03.180 If someone is

01:13:03.980 determined to

01:13:05.260 commit violence

01:13:05.880 against you,

01:13:06.240 it's pretty hard

01:13:06.620 to stop it if

01:13:07.220 he's still

01:13:07.480 alive, right?

01:13:08.940 You can

01:13:09.120 deter it.

01:13:10.200 And that's

01:13:10.520 where deterrence

01:13:11.760 comes into

01:13:13.100 effect here is

01:13:13.780 that there are

01:13:14.560 different levers.

01:13:16.000 And I've

01:13:16.660 said this

01:13:16.920 before is

01:13:17.340 yes,

01:13:17.560 you do

01:13:17.900 need a

01:13:18.240 credible

01:13:18.540 military

01:13:19.120 option for

01:13:20.660 diplomacy to

01:13:22.040 work.

01:13:23.240 But I

01:13:24.960 think everyone

01:13:25.580 agrees,

01:13:26.640 even,

01:13:27.280 well,

01:13:27.520 not everyone,

01:13:28.200 but I think

01:13:28.760 everyone who's

01:13:29.840 approaching this

01:13:30.640 in a sane

01:13:31.920 manner understands,

01:13:33.540 just like with

01:13:34.000 the Ukraine

01:13:34.400 war,

01:13:35.460 is that

01:13:36.020 this is

01:13:38.020 the least

01:13:38.860 worst way for

01:13:39.620 this to end

01:13:40.400 is with a

01:13:41.960 robust diplomatic

01:13:43.220 agreement.

01:13:44.340 Again,

01:13:44.560 maybe it's

01:13:44.980 not so

01:13:45.400 robust,

01:13:45.820 it's less

01:13:46.200 than perfect,

01:13:46.600 that does

01:13:47.320 restrain Iranian 0.99

01:13:48.780 nuclear ambitions.

01:13:50.900 I got to

01:13:51.200 wonder about

01:13:51.920 the troops

01:13:53.920 who are,

01:13:54.300 you know,

01:13:55.760 at the barrel

01:13:56.320 end of this

01:13:57.000 thing.

01:13:58.860 If they read

01:13:59.540 the New York

01:13:59.860 Times,

01:14:00.260 they learn that

01:14:00.820 the U.S.

01:14:01.620 really had

01:14:02.380 nothing to do

01:14:03.080 with any of

01:14:03.560 this,

01:14:03.780 just Israel

01:14:04.480 shows up and

01:14:05.240 says we're

01:14:05.500 doing this,

01:14:06.260 and now we're

01:14:07.360 following along

01:14:08.040 and participating

01:14:08.840 to some extent,

01:14:09.800 maybe now to a

01:14:10.320 greater extent.

01:14:11.520 What do they

01:14:11.900 think of that?

01:14:12.500 It feels

01:14:15.520 like,

01:14:15.840 it doesn't

01:14:16.060 feel like

01:14:16.420 it's true.

01:14:17.080 We were

01:14:17.480 pushed into

01:14:18.040 this by

01:14:18.420 another

01:14:18.640 country.

01:14:19.500 Is that

01:14:20.140 if you're

01:14:20.760 serving in

01:14:21.320 uniform away

01:14:21.980 from your

01:14:22.320 family,

01:14:23.060 risking death,

01:14:23.920 is that

01:14:24.200 like a good

01:14:24.660 reason?

01:14:25.580 Do you

01:14:25.800 think that's

01:14:26.100 adequate?

01:14:27.860 Or do

01:14:28.340 people not

01:14:28.700 think like

01:14:29.060 that when

01:14:29.700 they're

01:14:29.840 deployed?

01:14:30.820 I think

01:14:31.020 most folks

01:14:32.420 are going

01:14:32.760 to have

01:14:32.960 those thoughts,

01:14:33.600 but they're

01:14:33.820 going to

01:14:34.880 put them

01:14:35.200 down and

01:14:35.520 they're

01:14:35.640 going to

01:14:35.760 focus on

01:14:36.360 the mission.

01:14:37.460 I think

01:14:37.700 that's what

01:14:38.040 they have

01:14:38.620 to do.

01:14:39.340 Of course,

01:14:39.800 I totally

01:14:40.260 agree.

01:14:40.500 When you're

01:14:43.480 about to

01:14:43.920 drop bombs 0.96

01:14:44.660 on Fordo 0.99

01:14:45.380 and you're

01:14:45.780 a B-2

01:14:46.180 pilot,

01:14:46.660 you can't

01:14:46.980 in your

01:14:47.240 head be

01:14:47.880 wondering

01:14:49.060 about the

01:14:51.000 nature of

01:14:51.440 American

01:14:51.740 foreign policy

01:14:52.520 and how

01:14:52.800 we got

01:14:53.120 here.

01:14:53.340 No, I

01:14:54.100 totally

01:14:54.560 get it.

01:14:55.480 But when

01:14:55.860 you get

01:14:56.180 home.

01:14:57.140 Yeah.

01:14:57.620 And look,

01:14:58.440 I have to

01:14:59.520 be honest

01:14:59.920 here.

01:15:01.360 And I've

01:15:02.060 told people

01:15:03.100 this.

01:15:03.420 I'm somebody

01:15:03.960 who does

01:15:05.460 believe the

01:15:05.920 United States

01:15:06.440 should have

01:15:06.920 a partnership

01:15:07.400 and support

01:15:08.060 Israel.

01:15:08.540 I think

01:15:09.300 that an

01:15:10.600 ideal world

01:15:11.300 is that we

01:15:11.820 would have

01:15:12.200 a security

01:15:12.620 architecture

01:15:13.160 where you

01:15:14.940 would have

01:15:15.560 Gulf Arabs 0.99

01:15:17.140 cooperating with

01:15:17.840 Israel.

01:15:18.580 That would

01:15:19.260 help prevent

01:15:20.080 the rise of

01:15:20.820 a regional

01:15:21.340 hegemon

01:15:21.800 and a

01:15:22.540 global

01:15:22.800 hegemon

01:15:23.200 coming in

01:15:23.940 and dominating

01:15:26.620 the region.

01:15:28.520 I see

01:15:29.500 benefits to

01:15:30.420 that.

01:15:31.140 But I

01:15:31.940 am concerned

01:15:32.620 that if

01:15:33.800 this is

01:15:34.240 perceived

01:15:34.980 as a

01:15:37.820 war for

01:15:39.480 Israel,

01:15:41.560 what impact

01:15:42.780 is that

01:15:43.180 going to

01:15:43.420 have on

01:15:44.720 support for

01:15:45.460 us doing

01:15:46.400 some of

01:15:46.800 those things?

01:15:47.500 And I've

01:15:48.240 tried to

01:15:48.600 communicate to

01:15:49.600 people who

01:15:50.240 are strong

01:15:50.840 supporters of

01:15:51.520 the state

01:15:51.840 of Israel

01:15:52.280 that that's

01:15:53.440 one of

01:15:53.640 these second

01:15:54.040 and third

01:15:54.380 order

01:15:54.620 implications

01:15:55.220 that you

01:15:56.220 need to

01:15:56.380 be aware

01:15:56.680 of is

01:15:57.020 what is

01:15:57.420 going to

01:15:57.660 happen to

01:15:58.020 popular

01:15:58.300 support for

01:15:58.820 the state

01:15:59.060 of Israel.

01:15:59.420 I think

01:15:59.580 you and

01:15:59.860 Steve Bannon

01:16:00.400 talked about

01:16:00.940 this.

01:16:02.500 And there

01:16:02.900 is another

01:16:03.340 aspect here

01:16:04.440 too.

01:16:06.000 Right now

01:16:07.800 in the

01:16:08.360 region,

01:16:10.160 the Gulf

01:16:11.180 Arab states

01:16:11.860 are wanting

01:16:12.740 to pursue

01:16:13.360 better relations

01:16:14.320 with Israel

01:16:15.100 for a lot

01:16:15.580 of reasons.

01:16:16.120 Business

01:16:16.380 opportunities,

01:16:17.480 other things.

01:16:18.960 But one of

01:16:19.340 the biggest

01:16:19.880 things pushing

01:16:20.520 them together

01:16:21.120 is the

01:16:22.960 threat of

01:16:23.740 Iran.

01:16:24.760 So if

01:16:26.020 Iran

01:16:26.480 collapses,

01:16:28.060 it's a

01:16:28.340 failed state,

01:16:29.660 if they're

01:16:30.540 not there,

01:16:32.480 I think in

01:16:32.900 a lot of

01:16:33.260 ways,

01:16:34.340 again,

01:16:34.720 there's still

01:16:35.440 going to be

01:16:35.680 Iran.

01:16:36.400 And it's

01:16:36.760 not clear.

01:16:37.360 A lot of

01:16:37.620 the regime

01:16:37.920 change advocates

01:16:38.600 can't articulate

01:16:39.620 really what

01:16:40.120 comes next.

01:16:41.260 The Shah's 0.99

01:16:41.760 failed son

01:16:42.360 probably isn't

01:16:42.840 going to go

01:16:43.100 back to

01:16:43.420 Tehran and

01:16:43.860 take over.

01:16:44.420 These nuts

01:16:45.240 and the

01:16:45.500 MEK

01:16:45.940 aren't

01:16:46.180 going to

01:16:46.360 come and

01:16:46.660 take over.

01:16:47.980 But,

01:16:48.680 you know,

01:16:49.780 whatever is

01:16:51.600 there,

01:16:52.320 if it's

01:16:53.220 less of a

01:16:53.960 threat,

01:16:54.680 if it's

01:16:55.680 not the

01:16:56.220 same threat,

01:16:56.780 again,

01:16:57.060 that's

01:16:57.280 probably

01:16:57.560 good.

01:16:58.740 But what's

01:17:00.000 the unintended

01:17:00.340 consequence of

01:17:01.100 that?

01:17:01.340 Just like

01:17:01.760 the unintended

01:17:02.140 consequence of

01:17:03.620 removing Saddam 0.97

01:17:04.240 Hussein was

01:17:04.720 empowering Iran,

01:17:05.780 if you don't

01:17:06.460 have that

01:17:06.920 threat posed

01:17:07.920 by Iran

01:17:08.480 anymore,

01:17:09.620 that in

01:17:10.320 some ways

01:17:10.740 balances

01:17:11.340 against the

01:17:13.080 Gulf Arabs,

01:17:13.700 they're going

01:17:15.120 to look at

01:17:16.420 Israel and

01:17:17.360 they may

01:17:17.700 have concerns

01:17:18.380 and they

01:17:18.820 may go back

01:17:19.480 to where

01:17:19.800 they were

01:17:20.100 before and

01:17:21.220 be hostile

01:17:21.800 to Israel.

01:17:23.960 It's important

01:17:25.060 to remember

01:17:25.360 that for

01:17:26.460 most of

01:17:26.960 the Cold

01:17:27.280 War,

01:17:28.440 Israel

01:17:29.060 pursued a

01:17:30.220 foreign policy

01:17:30.920 that was

01:17:31.360 rooted in

01:17:31.720 something called

01:17:32.140 the Periphery

01:17:32.720 Doctrine and

01:17:34.120 it was very

01:17:34.600 smart.

01:17:35.640 It was

01:17:35.980 driven by

01:17:36.640 Ben-Gurion

01:17:37.180 where they

01:17:38.300 dealt with a

01:17:39.040 hostile Arab 1.00

01:17:40.100 world, 0.97

01:17:40.760 particularly the

01:17:41.340 states that

01:17:41.740 were supported

01:17:42.120 by the

01:17:42.440 Soviets, 0.65

01:17:42.860 so they

01:17:43.360 prioritized

01:17:44.560 building

01:17:44.920 relations

01:17:45.460 with non-Arab 0.98

01:17:47.020 countries on

01:17:48.020 the periphery

01:17:48.500 of the

01:17:48.660 Middle East,

01:17:49.080 so primarily

01:17:49.580 Turkey,

01:17:50.680 Iran,

01:17:51.540 and Ethiopia.

01:17:52.800 And that

01:17:53.220 was to

01:17:53.540 balance

01:17:54.220 against the

01:17:55.760 Arabs.

01:17:56.760 And that's

01:17:57.060 why Israel,

01:17:58.040 even after

01:17:58.800 the Islamic

01:17:59.300 Revolution,

01:17:59.980 even though

01:18:00.340 Khomeini was 0.98

01:18:01.080 screaming death

01:18:02.060 to Israel, 0.90

01:18:02.900 that's why

01:18:03.460 initially after

01:18:04.220 Iraq invaded 0.62

01:18:05.400 Iran,

01:18:06.080 Israel was 0.98

01:18:06.820 their main

01:18:07.220 arms supplier.

01:18:08.260 And other

01:18:08.480 countries started

01:18:09.020 selling them

01:18:09.460 stuff.

01:18:10.140 That's why

01:18:10.500 Israel was 0.98

01:18:11.780 such an

01:18:12.160 integral part of

01:18:12.840 Iran-Contra,

01:18:14.240 why you

01:18:14.560 had a lot

01:18:15.000 of American

01:18:15.520 neoconservatives

01:18:16.620 who were

01:18:17.240 supporters of

01:18:17.800 Israel that 0.89

01:18:18.400 were advocates

01:18:19.120 in the 80s,

01:18:19.860 people like

01:18:20.260 Michael

01:18:20.540 Ledeen,

01:18:21.580 Elliott Abrams,

01:18:22.840 of still trying

01:18:23.580 to pursue good

01:18:24.420 relations with

01:18:25.060 Iran,

01:18:25.640 even though you

01:18:26.160 had Khomeini

01:18:26.780 shouting death

01:18:27.420 for America, 0.97

01:18:27.900 death to 1.00

01:18:28.180 Israel.

01:18:28.840 And that's

01:18:29.560 why up until

01:18:30.640 the end of

01:18:31.320 the Cold War

01:18:31.980 and the defeat

01:18:32.860 of Iraq and

01:18:33.760 the Gulf War

01:18:34.380 that Israel

01:18:35.820 viewed Iraq

01:18:36.660 as a bigger

01:18:37.740 threat as

01:18:39.740 opposed to

01:18:40.500 Iran.

01:18:41.340 And they

01:18:41.680 were quietly

01:18:43.120 supporting Iran

01:18:44.180 in some cases

01:18:45.140 openly,

01:18:47.100 even though you

01:18:48.240 had this very

01:18:49.260 anti-Semitic,

01:18:50.320 anti-Israel

01:18:51.740 regime.

01:18:52.560 And honestly,

01:18:54.140 it was

01:18:54.380 incredibly,

01:18:55.440 I believe that

01:18:57.420 was a smart

01:18:57.840 thing to do.

01:18:58.760 But after the

01:18:59.900 end of the

01:19:00.200 Cold War,

01:19:01.100 after Saddam,

01:19:02.400 the country they

01:19:03.560 viewed as more

01:19:04.220 threatening,

01:19:04.700 was degraded,

01:19:06.180 Iran became the 1.00

01:19:07.320 bigger threat.

01:19:07.740 So I tell that

01:19:08.440 story to say

01:19:10.320 is,

01:19:11.320 what happens

01:19:12.000 after you

01:19:13.140 don't have

01:19:13.480 Iran? 0.79

01:19:14.240 Does Turkey

01:19:15.160 become more

01:19:15.740 powerful?

01:19:16.740 Do other

01:19:17.280 countries start

01:19:18.080 to band

01:19:18.400 together out

01:19:19.140 of fear of

01:19:19.960 what Israel's

01:19:20.560 done in

01:19:21.560 Iran? 0.79

01:19:22.080 And so I'm

01:19:23.420 really concerned

01:19:24.260 that people

01:19:25.480 aren't thinking

01:19:26.360 through what

01:19:27.760 could happen

01:19:28.320 here,

01:19:28.580 not to mention

01:19:29.400 what could

01:19:29.900 happen in

01:19:30.720 Iran.

01:19:31.540 I've only

01:19:32.600 listened to a

01:19:33.100 small part of

01:19:33.660 your interview

01:19:34.260 with Ted Cruz,

01:19:35.180 but he was

01:19:35.440 saying something

01:19:35.920 about how

01:19:37.180 it would be

01:19:37.400 good if

01:19:37.680 the Islamic

01:19:38.080 regime was

01:19:38.880 gone and

01:19:39.960 through a

01:19:40.340 popular

01:19:40.660 uprising.

01:19:41.740 Yeah,

01:19:41.980 in an

01:19:42.620 ideal world,

01:19:43.260 you'd have

01:19:43.580 a bunch of

01:19:47.000 Iranian

01:19:47.580 liberals rise

01:19:48.380 up and

01:19:48.840 overthrow the 0.79

01:19:50.000 Islamic regime 0.94

01:19:51.160 and you'd

01:19:51.780 have a popular

01:19:52.420 democracy in

01:19:53.020 Iran.

01:19:53.280 But it's

01:19:54.220 more likely

01:19:54.660 you could

01:19:54.980 have something

01:19:55.380 worse replace

01:19:58.240 the Mullahs.

01:19:59.700 You could

01:20:00.300 have Iran 0.93

01:20:00.900 break into

01:20:01.540 a civil

01:20:02.380 war.

01:20:03.740 You have

01:20:04.360 a lot of

01:20:04.880 ethnic minorities

01:20:05.720 that are

01:20:06.160 looking for

01:20:06.600 independence.

01:20:07.080 If Iraq 0.97

01:20:08.900 hadn't invaded

01:20:09.640 Iran in

01:20:11.320 1980,

01:20:12.120 there's a

01:20:12.480 chance,

01:20:12.900 there's a

01:20:13.200 world where

01:20:13.900 Iran could 0.95

01:20:15.060 have devolved

01:20:16.880 into major

01:20:18.340 civil war because

01:20:19.140 of all these

01:20:19.620 ethnic minorities

01:20:20.460 that are trying

01:20:20.940 to break

01:20:21.300 away.

01:20:21.760 40% of the

01:20:22.660 country.

01:20:23.140 Yes.

01:20:23.760 So that's

01:20:25.680 a lot,

01:20:26.340 a lot of

01:20:26.880 history there.

01:20:28.060 But this

01:20:30.260 is what is

01:20:30.860 not being

01:20:31.340 discussed about

01:20:32.100 the risks

01:20:32.660 around regime

01:20:33.380 change that

01:20:33.840 really worries

01:20:34.360 me and

01:20:34.780 it's a

01:20:35.080 repeat of

01:20:35.520 what happened

01:20:35.900 in Iraq

01:20:36.260 in 2003.

01:20:36.800 Well, I

01:20:36.920 think the

01:20:37.160 people pushing

01:20:37.600 literally just

01:20:38.380 don't care

01:20:38.920 at all.

01:20:40.000 And in

01:20:40.200 fact,

01:20:40.740 chaos in

01:20:42.520 neighboring

01:20:43.060 states, I

01:20:44.120 think is bad

01:20:44.540 for the

01:20:44.840 world, including

01:20:46.340 Israel.

01:20:46.860 I think it's

01:20:47.060 bad for

01:20:47.300 everybody.

01:20:48.340 But there

01:20:48.820 are some

01:20:48.980 people who

01:20:49.200 think it's

01:20:49.420 good.

01:20:50.640 I mean,

01:20:50.860 that is a

01:20:51.220 view.

01:20:52.320 Yeah.

01:20:53.620 Abetting chaos

01:20:54.300 on purpose.

01:20:54.980 yes, it's

01:20:57.340 kind of

01:20:57.580 like, so I

01:20:58.020 was just

01:20:58.360 in Europe

01:20:58.960 and was

01:21:00.700 meeting with

01:21:01.020 European diplomats

01:21:01.880 was very

01:21:02.220 interesting.

01:21:04.440 And some

01:21:05.060 of them were

01:21:05.360 open, we

01:21:06.600 saying, we

01:21:07.600 want the 0.55

01:21:08.020 Ukrainian war

01:21:08.780 to continue

01:21:10.200 because it

01:21:11.160 benefits us.

01:21:11.920 And these

01:21:12.340 were from

01:21:12.880 countries, I

01:21:13.420 won't, you

01:21:13.820 know, Chatham House

01:21:14.600 rules, I

01:21:14.980 won't say who,

01:21:16.520 but these are

01:21:17.000 from countries

01:21:17.580 that were

01:21:17.900 supposedly the

01:21:19.260 strongest

01:21:19.540 supporters of

01:21:20.200 Ukraine,

01:21:20.920 saying we

01:21:21.540 want the war 0.74

01:21:22.100 to continue.

01:21:22.740 Not we

01:21:23.300 want Ukraine

01:21:23.860 to win,

01:21:24.400 we want

01:21:25.980 the war

01:21:26.480 to continue.

01:21:27.460 Why?

01:21:28.620 Well, for

01:21:29.000 them, they

01:21:29.580 perceive Russia

01:21:31.180 as a

01:21:33.320 threat, and

01:21:34.140 that if

01:21:34.600 Russia stops

01:21:35.340 fighting in

01:21:35.880 Ukraine, then

01:21:36.540 they'll reorient

01:21:37.220 against them,

01:21:38.480 even though

01:21:38.820 there's really

01:21:39.260 not,

01:21:41.200 Putin has

01:21:43.300 not expressed

01:21:45.020 the intent as

01:21:45.740 clearly as some

01:21:46.720 people like to

01:21:47.340 say.

01:21:47.640 What's so

01:21:47.840 funny, I

01:21:48.180 mean, if I

01:21:48.820 would just, I

01:21:49.760 know the Brits

01:21:50.260 feel this way,

01:21:50.900 especially.

01:21:51.640 Oh, yeah.

01:21:52.500 They've convinced

01:21:53.060 themselves that

01:21:53.720 Russia's their 1.00

01:21:54.380 greatest enemy.

01:21:55.880 It's bizarre.

01:21:57.980 But, you

01:21:59.200 know, if I

01:21:59.560 were Putin, I

01:22:00.380 would offer

01:22:01.040 free first-class

01:22:02.140 trips to

01:22:02.720 Moscow so 0.78

01:22:03.340 they could see

01:22:03.920 that, like,

01:22:05.460 Moscow was so

01:22:06.200 much nicer than

01:22:06.980 any place in

01:22:08.120 Great Britain.

01:22:08.820 It's, like, not

01:22:09.280 even close.

01:22:10.000 There's no part

01:22:10.940 of Great Britain

01:22:11.440 that's as nice

01:22:11.980 as Moscow.

01:22:12.580 It's, like,

01:22:14.060 probably an

01:22:14.520 upgrade for

01:22:15.060 them.

01:22:15.800 I mean, their

01:22:16.220 leadership is so

01:22:17.320 bad.

01:22:17.780 Their country's

01:22:18.260 so degraded.

01:22:20.680 I think a lot

01:22:22.400 of them, I

01:22:23.200 think the Brits

01:22:23.820 are starting, I

01:22:24.400 will say, I

01:22:25.020 think they're

01:22:25.280 starting to come

01:22:25.800 around a bit.

01:22:28.320 It's just weird

01:22:29.040 that they're mad

01:22:29.640 at Putin.

01:22:30.280 Why aren't they

01:22:30.620 mad at Keir

01:22:31.140 Starmer?

01:22:31.660 Why aren't they

01:22:31.980 mad at the 0.91

01:22:32.240 fake conservative

01:22:33.320 Rishi Sunak?

01:22:35.320 You know what I

01:22:35.940 mean?

01:22:36.380 I think part of

01:22:37.240 it is for

01:22:38.780 them, and I'm

01:22:39.680 not by no means

01:22:40.720 an expert on

01:22:41.400 British politics.

01:22:42.060 I enjoyed working

01:22:44.160 with some people.

01:22:45.880 The British

01:22:46.340 defense establishment

01:22:47.720 was in the

01:22:48.180 Pentagon.

01:22:48.600 I have a lot

01:22:48.900 of respect for

01:22:49.400 them, but

01:22:49.700 there's still

01:22:50.540 kind of this

01:22:50.980 grasping at

01:22:52.800 trying to be a

01:22:53.920 global imperial

01:22:54.740 power when

01:22:55.420 they're, you

01:22:56.820 know, they don't

01:22:58.200 have the resources

01:22:59.040 or the power to

01:22:59.860 do that.

01:23:00.060 Of course, and I

01:23:00.680 feel sorry for

01:23:02.000 them, sort of,

01:23:03.140 but on the other

01:23:03.940 hand, it's like

01:23:04.560 every Western

01:23:05.440 country has the

01:23:06.180 same syndrome

01:23:06.820 where their

01:23:08.480 well-deserved

01:23:10.020 frustrations about

01:23:11.540 the decline of

01:23:12.140 their own

01:23:12.520 countries are

01:23:13.160 channeled into

01:23:13.840 hate at people

01:23:15.480 thousands of

01:23:16.120 miles away.

01:23:17.520 Yeah.

01:23:17.580 It's like you're

01:23:18.000 in a country where

01:23:18.480 people are just

01:23:18.940 dropping dead at

01:23:20.220 25 of fentanyl

01:23:21.460 ODs, like no

01:23:22.420 one can get a job

01:23:23.280 after graduating

01:23:23.920 college, and you

01:23:24.700 can't afford a

01:23:25.180 house, and can't

01:23:26.100 get married or

01:23:26.620 have kids, and

01:23:27.180 you're like, I'm

01:23:27.960 mad at Putin.

01:23:28.860 I'm mad at the 0.68

01:23:29.420 Ayatollahs. 0.92

01:23:31.420 It's like, you

01:23:32.340 know what I mean?

01:23:32.860 It's like this

01:23:33.280 weird kind of

01:23:34.320 unwillingness to

01:23:36.100 face the truth

01:23:36.760 which is no,

01:23:37.620 you've been

01:23:38.140 betrayed by your

01:23:38.800 own leaders.

01:23:39.980 It's easier to

01:23:40.660 point, it's easier

01:23:42.620 to point abroad

01:23:43.280 than look, you

01:23:44.440 know, and you've

01:23:44.840 seen that, you've

01:23:45.880 seen that throughout

01:23:46.280 history, you know,

01:23:47.000 the British dealt 0.73

01:23:47.760 with that in the

01:23:49.020 Falklands War.

01:23:49.660 Why did Argentina

01:23:50.400 invade the Falklands

01:23:51.240 when they did?

01:23:51.960 Because the

01:23:53.120 Argentina junta was

01:23:54.260 having severe

01:23:55.940 problems.

01:23:56.600 Exactly.

01:23:57.620 And why did

01:23:58.300 Thatcher respond the

01:23:59.060 way that she did?

01:23:59.840 Because she'd also

01:24:01.200 just come out of

01:24:01.700 these strikes, and

01:24:02.540 like, that helped

01:24:04.440 her tremendously.

01:24:05.280 No, there's all

01:24:05.740 kinds of baked in

01:24:06.440 incentives to war.

01:24:07.420 I just, you do

01:24:08.660 wish some of

01:24:09.200 these countries

01:24:09.700 would take that

01:24:10.520 hostility, which

01:24:11.180 again is well

01:24:11.980 earned, like they

01:24:13.420 have a right to be

01:24:14.200 hostile, and focus

01:24:15.820 it against their

01:24:17.280 own leaders and

01:24:17.880 affect regime change

01:24:18.760 in their own

01:24:19.220 countries.

01:24:20.180 You know, these

01:24:20.520 countries, they

01:24:22.060 deserve regime

01:24:22.960 change, a lot of

01:24:23.740 these countries in

01:24:24.380 the West.

01:24:24.740 And it's, again, for

01:24:26.960 me, I've been to

01:24:28.480 Ukraine and went to

01:24:29.360 Ukraine last year

01:24:30.300 during the war, and

01:24:31.400 I came away with a

01:24:33.100 lot of sympathy and

01:24:34.100 respect for a lot of

01:24:35.100 Ukrainians.

01:24:35.880 I came away with a

01:24:37.360 lot of immense, I'll

01:24:39.020 just use the word

01:24:39.880 hatred, shouldn't, you

01:24:42.480 know, let it linger,

01:24:43.740 but it was angry at

01:24:44.960 some of the Western

01:24:46.000 supporters of Ukraine

01:24:47.000 and a lot of

01:24:47.480 Ukraine's leaders.

01:24:49.400 Um, why?

01:24:50.600 Tell me why you

01:24:51.080 felt that way.

01:24:52.980 Because, at the end

01:24:54.320 of the day, a lot of

01:24:56.080 these people's strategy

01:24:56.900 is to continue to

01:24:58.600 send young Ukrainians 1.00

01:25:00.140 in pursuit of a

01:25:02.160 victory that they

01:25:03.640 know they can't win.

01:25:04.720 Yes.

01:25:05.160 And they're doing it

01:25:05.780 just so they can feel

01:25:06.640 good about themselves.

01:25:07.980 Just so they can say

01:25:08.700 we're standing up to

01:25:09.560 Putin.

01:25:10.580 And, you know, I

01:25:11.140 gotta say, like,

01:25:12.840 you know, we haven't

01:25:14.720 talked about the

01:25:15.240 Ukrainian drone, you 0.75

01:25:16.940 know, issue, but

01:25:17.780 last month, the

01:25:20.980 ambassador to Ukraine

01:25:23.080 resigned, this woman

01:25:24.220 named Bridget Brink.

01:25:25.900 And she made a big 0.81

01:25:27.820 show of it.

01:25:28.640 She wrote a op-ed

01:25:30.700 for the Detroit Free

01:25:31.900 Press.

01:25:32.340 She's probably going to

01:25:32.860 run for Congress in

01:25:33.880 Michigan.

01:25:35.360 And it was a bunch

01:25:36.860 of pablum.

01:25:37.800 It was about, you

01:25:39.940 know, how America

01:25:40.600 needs to lead the

01:25:41.280 free world, how she 0.95

01:25:42.680 was essentially

01:25:43.500 ashamed that

01:25:44.400 President Trump's

01:25:45.380 administration has

01:25:46.100 recognized that the

01:25:47.060 only way Ukraine's 0.97

01:25:48.200 going to survive as a

01:25:49.100 nation is through a

01:25:50.360 diplomatic settlement.

01:25:51.900 And she was, she's

01:25:52.700 saying that we were

01:25:53.280 betraying our values and

01:25:54.760 all this other nonsense. 0.54

01:25:56.220 She's a child. 0.91

01:25:57.160 It was childish.

01:25:58.220 And she was the

01:25:59.040 ambassador to Ukraine.

01:25:59.960 I met her actually.

01:26:00.840 She's a joke, yeah. 0.95

01:26:01.400 When I went to Odessa

01:26:02.180 the first time and I

01:26:03.020 interact, I never

01:26:04.600 really directly, but on a

01:26:05.640 lot of calls with her

01:26:06.400 when I was in

01:26:06.760 administration.

01:26:07.160 And she could not

01:26:11.880 articulate how do

01:26:13.900 you achieve some

01:26:16.300 semblance of victory

01:26:17.060 for the Ukrainians

01:26:17.740 considering the fact

01:26:18.460 that they don't have

01:26:18.940 enough people and we

01:26:19.820 don't have enough

01:26:20.260 weapons to give them.

01:26:21.220 She told a friend of

01:26:21.980 mine at an event, a

01:26:23.480 cocktail event, that

01:26:25.020 her baseline demand was

01:26:27.500 that Putin give back

01:26:28.500 Crimea.

01:26:30.500 And it's like she didn't

01:26:31.740 know what Crimea was.

01:26:32.980 She didn't understand.

01:26:33.900 And I mean, basically

01:26:36.100 like we'll have a

01:26:36.720 nuclear war over Crimea

01:26:37.640 is what she, but she 1.00

01:26:38.480 didn't even understand

01:26:39.280 that was the implication.

01:26:40.260 Like she was like an 1.00

01:26:41.000 idiot. 1.00

01:26:42.520 Most of the Ukrainian, 1.00

01:26:43.800 most, most of the

01:26:44.680 Ukrainian government,

01:26:45.760 obviously no government's

01:26:47.200 a unitary entity, but

01:26:48.840 there's an increasing

01:26:49.500 number of people in

01:26:51.340 the Ukrainian government,

01:26:52.260 including some folks

01:26:53.040 that I think a lot of,

01:26:55.040 I'm not going to say

01:26:55.660 who they are, including

01:26:56.760 some folks that I think

01:26:57.540 would be surprising to

01:26:59.300 people here who, who

01:27:01.100 recognize the reality.

01:27:01.960 They know Crimea is not

01:27:03.100 coming back.

01:27:03.660 And those, you know,

01:27:05.300 those people in some

01:27:06.720 ways are becoming the

01:27:09.160 enemies themselves.

01:27:11.140 And that's why you see

01:27:12.620 more and more crackdowns

01:27:14.260 on dissent in Ukraine,

01:27:15.680 why a lot of people are

01:27:17.320 afraid to speak out, and

01:27:19.400 why, honestly, that

01:27:21.300 major drone attack was

01:27:22.780 launched the day before

01:27:23.980 a negotiating team was

01:27:25.400 going to Istanbul to

01:27:26.260 meet with the Russians.

01:27:28.820 So what was, I mean, I

01:27:31.260 don't, the conventional

01:27:32.860 view is there's no chance

01:27:34.280 the Ukrainians could have

01:27:35.120 pulled that off without

01:27:35.960 the help of NATO.

01:27:39.560 So, again, I heard you

01:27:41.200 and Steve Bannon talking

01:27:42.780 about this.

01:27:44.400 Here's, here's my view.

01:27:46.240 I know Steve has been

01:27:47.400 asking a lot about this.

01:27:48.720 I actually don't believe

01:27:50.080 that the upper echelons of

01:27:51.600 the Pentagon, the CIA,

01:27:53.840 White House, State

01:27:54.740 Department knew about this.

01:27:55.880 Well, the White House

01:27:58.080 didn't know.

01:27:59.200 I think they're 100%

01:28:00.400 correct because they would

01:28:02.120 have been incredibly

01:28:02.700 uncomfortable with this

01:28:05.960 happening the day before

01:28:07.440 peace talks.

01:28:08.380 And I do have to say, I

01:28:09.540 think the same applies to

01:28:10.700 CIA leadership.

01:28:11.480 However, I do believe that

01:28:14.640 there were elements of the

01:28:19.860 military supporting Ukraine,

01:28:22.660 particularly through training

01:28:23.660 and some of their

01:28:24.080 intelligence sharing, and

01:28:25.280 probably elements of the

01:28:26.760 intelligence community that's

01:28:27.700 supporting Ukraine that

01:28:29.720 knew about this and didn't

01:28:31.360 run it up the chain because

01:28:32.980 they were worried that they

01:28:36.220 would be told no.

01:28:37.220 Because they had started this

01:28:39.960 plan under the previous

01:28:40.920 administration, and they knew

01:28:43.340 the previous administration

01:28:44.320 likely would have been

01:28:45.560 comfortable with it, but ours

01:28:46.820 wouldn't.

01:28:47.280 And so they probably

01:28:49.140 suppressed that information

01:28:50.820 from getting up the chain.

01:28:51.760 And I want to be clear, I'm

01:28:53.040 not casting aspersions on

01:28:54.400 everybody in European

01:28:55.700 command.

01:28:56.580 There's a lot of great

01:28:57.340 officers, great soldiers,

01:28:58.660 and Marines, sailors, airmen

01:29:00.160 serving European command.

01:29:01.580 There's actually some really

01:29:02.680 smart, realistic members of

01:29:05.120 the intelligence community that

01:29:06.280 are serving on the Russia-Ukraine

01:29:08.060 portfolio.

01:29:09.480 But there's others that are

01:29:11.500 still bought in, like Bridget

01:29:13.320 Brink, to this idea that

01:29:15.340 Ukraine can achieve a

01:29:17.520 victory, and one way to do

01:29:18.640 it is by these spectacular

01:29:19.960 attacks that, you know, while

01:29:22.540 may risk a little thing called

01:29:24.120 nuclear war because we're

01:29:25.440 attacking Russian strategic

01:29:26.880 assets, not just, you know,

01:29:28.760 missile launchers and stuff.

01:29:29.960 And yeah, they have a role in

01:29:32.100 the war in Ukraine, but they

01:29:33.680 were all, remember, they also

01:29:34.800 attacked a Russian nuclear

01:29:35.980 submarine base in north of

01:29:37.140 the country.

01:29:37.980 So that was done, first and

01:29:40.560 foremost, to undermine the

01:29:42.460 peace talks, I think, going

01:29:43.940 into Istanbul the day, the

01:29:46.380 next day, and also, too, to

01:29:48.260 invite some type of

01:29:49.220 escalation.

01:29:50.300 Well, they've tried to kill 0.66

01:29:50.900 Putin at least twice.

01:29:53.000 So.

01:29:53.360 Yeah.

01:29:53.940 Yeah.

01:29:55.260 And that leads to one of my

01:29:56.560 last questions, second to last

01:29:57.920 question, which is, why do we

01:29:59.540 put up with that?

01:30:01.380 I mean, if our job is to run

01:30:03.800 the world, or at least the

01:30:04.680 West, and I think most people in

01:30:06.540 the U.S.

01:30:06.840 government think that is our

01:30:07.660 job, maintain the peace, act in

01:30:10.240 our own interest, et cetera,

01:30:11.240 et cetera, Zelensky and a few

01:30:14.480 people around him are actively

01:30:16.100 subverting that.

01:30:17.900 He's not elected.

01:30:19.680 He rules by force.

01:30:22.060 Ukraine is less free than 0.99

01:30:23.700 Russia, from what I can tell.

01:30:25.820 Like, why are we continuing to

01:30:27.840 send him money?

01:30:28.400 Why don't we force him to leave?

01:30:30.100 Why don't we, I don't know,

01:30:31.560 render him somewhere?

01:30:32.580 I don't get it.

01:30:33.380 I forget, was, maybe it's you

01:30:37.900 who told me this, or, or, you

01:30:39.800 know, I have a, some British

01:30:43.600 commentator said, we're just

01:30:45.920 really bad at being an empire.

01:30:47.500 We don't understand the patron

01:30:48.900 client relationship.

01:30:50.660 That was me.

01:30:51.340 I thought that since December of

01:30:53.520 2003 in Baghdad, we're not good

01:30:55.240 at this.

01:30:55.680 We should, things we're not good

01:30:56.780 at.

01:30:56.880 Yeah, we were not built to be an

01:30:58.240 empire.

01:30:58.800 No, the Brits were.

01:30:59.860 Yeah, the Brits definitely were,

01:31:01.760 but we are not, you know.

01:31:02.840 Um, we were meant to be a

01:31:04.160 republic, not an empire.

01:31:05.620 Yep.

01:31:06.180 Um, and, uh, I think we, I will

01:31:10.680 say this administration has

01:31:12.280 started to change that.

01:31:13.080 I can't tell you how much the

01:31:14.500 aid pause that we did really

01:31:17.420 freaked out the establishment

01:31:18.760 and sent a, an important

01:31:20.020 message to Ukrainians, but

01:31:21.140 also the Europeans, but there's

01:31:23.720 still a ways to go.

01:31:24.700 And, um, I think we, we need

01:31:28.720 to really change that mental

01:31:31.060 model about how partners

01:31:32.700 and allies.

01:31:33.600 We work with partners and

01:31:34.900 allies.

01:31:35.140 It doesn't mean that we are,

01:31:36.620 are telling them what to, you

01:31:37.880 know, we're, we're, we're

01:31:38.640 dominating them in, in, in, in

01:31:40.340 certain ways.

01:31:41.040 We're always trying to throw 0.91

01:31:41.940 them under the bus.

01:31:42.580 That doesn't work either.

01:31:44.800 But this idea that we let

01:31:46.240 certain clients, um, do

01:31:50.040 things constantly that are

01:31:51.280 against our interest, it

01:31:52.600 benefit, it doesn't benefit us

01:31:53.740 in the longterm.

01:31:54.440 It doesn't benefit these

01:31:55.320 clients.

01:31:56.260 I mean, look at what happened

01:31:57.480 in Afghanistan.

01:31:57.980 I think that's a perfect

01:31:58.980 example of that.

01:32:00.800 Last question.

01:32:02.200 Um, if you had to bet, do

01:32:08.000 you think, um, the U S

01:32:11.840 government is capable of

01:32:14.180 closing out this war in Iran,

01:32:16.760 like saying to Israel, you 0.89

01:32:21.380 know, we've done enough, like

01:32:22.180 stop.

01:32:24.380 And if Donald Trump decides,

01:32:26.100 you know, he wanted to go

01:32:26.980 back to the negotiating table,

01:32:28.400 send Steve Wyckoff to

01:32:29.360 Oman again, to meet with the

01:32:31.360 Iranians and try and hammer 1.00

01:32:32.620 something out.

01:32:33.460 Do we have the power to do

01:32:34.500 that?

01:32:36.460 I think it's, this is an

01:32:38.140 interesting question.

01:32:38.860 Are we talking about

01:32:39.460 capability or willingness?

01:32:41.680 Both.

01:32:42.600 Like, could that actually

01:32:43.400 happen?

01:32:43.960 Is that real?

01:32:44.340 Absolutely.

01:32:45.340 I, I, I think that is, that

01:32:47.080 isn't entirely possible.

01:32:48.720 I say it's likely, I don't

01:32:49.940 know.

01:32:50.620 Yeah, we can't know, but you

01:32:51.720 think it's possible.

01:32:52.720 Of course.

01:32:53.360 I mean, we, we have done this

01:32:56.500 before.

01:32:57.300 I mean, I, I think, you

01:32:59.660 know, with Israel

01:33:01.560 specifically, you know, Ronald

01:33:03.760 Reagan is considered a very

01:33:06.160 pro-Israel president.

01:33:07.380 He was a very pro-Israel

01:33:08.520 president for sure.

01:33:09.300 But there were times where,

01:33:11.060 where the feeling was, is

01:33:12.220 that Israel was not doing 0.52

01:33:13.960 things in our interest.

01:33:15.080 And we made that clear and

01:33:16.800 we use our leverage to make

01:33:18.980 sure that they were not

01:33:20.620 harming American interests.

01:33:23.620 And I think we perfectly have

01:33:27.560 the capability to do that.

01:33:32.580 Again, I, I, I, we don't

01:33:35.440 know how the next few days are

01:33:37.480 going to play out, but it's,

01:33:39.520 it's definitely there is we

01:33:40.940 have tremendous amount of

01:33:42.660 leverage over many parties in

01:33:44.320 the Middle East, over, you 1.00

01:33:45.920 know, many countries around

01:33:46.940 the world.

01:33:47.460 For sure.

01:33:48.060 We just have used it

01:33:49.680 incredibly poorly.

01:33:52.660 Dan Caldwell, I keep reading

01:33:53.840 about what an extremist you 0.81

01:33:54.920 are.

01:33:55.140 I think you're the most

01:33:55.820 moderate person I've spoken

01:33:56.900 to this month.

01:33:57.660 Who else are you interviewing?

01:34:02.020 Thank you.

01:34:02.700 Is Jelani coming?

01:34:04.180 Do you have, are you, are you

01:34:05.640 going to Damascus?

01:34:06.080 No, no, we love Jelani.

01:34:06.860 We're totally pro-Isis now. 0.93

01:34:08.860 It's totally cool.

01:34:09.840 As long as, you're going to

01:34:10.240 Damascus?

01:34:10.980 As long as Assad has gone.

01:34:12.500 The funny thing is I was

01:34:13.980 invited by, um, by Assad a

01:34:17.140 couple of times and I didn't go

01:34:19.280 both because, you know, I didn't

01:34:21.700 have super strong feelings about

01:34:22.860 it.

01:34:22.960 And I was like, that's not

01:34:23.680 worth it.

01:34:24.440 You know, it's just not, I've

01:34:25.480 got other interests and I'm not,

01:34:26.860 I don't want to spend my life

01:34:27.520 thinking about the Middle East.

01:34:29.300 But if I'd gone, I think that

01:34:30.580 would have been, I mean, it

01:34:31.440 kind of wrecked Tulsi Gabbard's

01:34:32.700 life for a number of years.

01:34:34.140 Got her kicked out of the 0.96

01:34:34.740 Democratic Party.

01:34:36.100 But if you were to go to

01:34:37.380 Damascus to meet with Jelani,

01:34:39.220 the former Dash guy, the ISIS 0.95

01:34:41.100 guy, Al-Qaeda guy, true 0.99

01:34:43.340 extremist.

01:34:45.000 Totally cool.

01:34:46.040 Yeah.

01:34:46.520 I mean, Al-Nusra, I mean,

01:34:48.320 Al-Nusra and ISIS, but, but

01:34:49.860 yeah, he was a member of

01:34:50.780 ISIS.

01:34:51.480 Yeah, whatever.

01:34:51.880 I'm using the terms broadly,

01:34:53.160 but like, yeah, like radical

01:34:54.760 Sunni extremist, like nihilist.

01:34:57.700 We do have to say one thing

01:34:59.240 though, about you brought up

01:35:00.440 Tulsi Gabbard is there's a lot

01:35:02.740 of good staff right now in

01:35:04.320 the administration that are

01:35:06.060 doing the Lord's work.

01:35:07.840 And I have to say some of the

01:35:10.920 things that are being said

01:35:11.840 about them and how they're

01:35:13.700 being undermined in the press

01:35:14.960 and being accused of awful

01:35:16.100 things is absolutely

01:35:17.700 disgusting.

01:35:19.600 There candidly is an effort to 0.85

01:35:21.140 run somewhat of the same

01:35:22.900 playbook against them.

01:35:24.080 They did me.

01:35:24.720 It's like you're seeing these

01:35:25.320 accusations of leaking

01:35:26.460 and they're on the outs.

01:35:28.400 Let's be honest.

01:35:29.680 That's a trick that people

01:35:31.200 who want a bigger war are

01:35:33.300 playing to stifle dissent.

01:35:35.360 Oh, I'm aware.

01:35:36.380 Because if you dissent,

01:35:38.080 you know, look,

01:35:39.260 as I said before,

01:35:40.020 you dissent

01:35:40.800 and they make a decision

01:35:42.680 to do something.

01:35:43.900 it's your job

01:35:45.020 to implement it.

01:35:46.420 But they're trying to

01:35:47.620 snuff out

01:35:49.240 any sort of process

01:35:50.180 or debate right now

01:35:51.100 by attacking

01:35:51.740 and trying to accuse

01:35:52.920 certain groups of people,

01:35:55.100 whether it's in

01:35:55.920 the White House,

01:35:56.900 the Pentagon,

01:35:57.740 ODNI,

01:35:58.520 State Department of Leaking.

01:35:59.840 So they're scaring them away

01:36:01.520 from actually offering

01:36:03.300 feedback and challenge.

01:36:04.720 And that's utterly disgusting.

01:36:06.840 And, you know,

01:36:08.120 I know that

01:36:09.240 there's a lot of good people

01:36:10.800 in the White House

01:36:11.360 that aren't going to tolerate it.

01:36:12.340 They're not going to be,

01:36:13.440 you know,

01:36:16.660 they're not going to be

01:36:17.100 bullied by it.

01:36:18.060 But I think we acknowledge

01:36:19.260 it's happening

01:36:19.880 and it's not surprising,

01:36:22.520 but it still is utterly 1.00

01:36:23.680 fucking disgusting. 0.99

01:36:24.020 Can I say one thing 1.00

01:36:25.580 and you're definitely

01:36:26.420 in this category,

01:36:27.240 but it's the people

01:36:28.200 who've been targeted

01:36:29.020 in general

01:36:29.960 are the most patriotic,

01:36:32.920 the most pro-American,

01:36:34.460 the most,

01:36:35.460 people whose views

01:36:36.080 are the most consistent

01:36:36.780 with the ones

01:36:37.200 Donald Trump ran on.

01:36:39.200 I have noticed that.

01:36:39.980 I think it's true for you.

01:36:40.740 It's certainly true for Tulsi.

01:36:41.640 And they're also the people

01:36:42.820 that when the president

01:36:44.020 says we're doing this,

01:36:45.540 they're going to implement it.

01:36:48.260 And if they don't agree with it,

01:36:49.820 if it goes against

01:36:51.340 their core beliefs so much,

01:36:53.180 then they're going to resign.

01:36:54.600 They're not going to do

01:36:55.720 what Jim Jeffrey,

01:36:57.060 who we were talking about

01:36:57.780 earlier,

01:36:58.160 is going to do.

01:36:58.800 They're not going to do

01:36:59.320 what people in the first term

01:37:00.360 did and undermine it.

01:37:01.660 Is they're going to say,

01:37:03.620 Roger that and go forward.

01:37:06.960 And that's what makes

01:37:07.920 this whole thing even worse.

01:37:09.860 Yeah,

01:37:10.160 they're attacking

01:37:10.700 the best people

01:37:11.380 because lying is not a crime,

01:37:12.840 telling the truth is.

01:37:14.400 Yeah.

01:37:15.100 Thank you, Dan.

01:37:15.960 Thank you.

01:37:16.540 I'm proud of you again.

01:37:21.480 We want to thank you

01:37:22.300 for watching us on Spotify,

01:37:23.840 a company that we use every day.

01:37:25.440 We know the people

01:37:25.840 who run it,

01:37:26.340 good people.

01:37:27.380 While you're here,

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01:37:29.180 hit follow and tap the bell

01:37:31.540 so you never miss an episode.

01:37:33.280 We have real conversations,

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The Tucker Carlson Show - June 20, 2025

Military Expert Dan Caldwell Breaks Down What Will Happen Next in Israel’s War With Iran

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