The Tucker Carlson Show - National Security Expert Elbridge Colby’s Advice to Trump on How to Avoid WWIII & Handle the CIA

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00:00:25.800 Welcome to the Tucker Carlson Show.

00:00:27.560 We bring you stories that have not been showcased anywhere else.

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00:00:40.260 Check out all of our content at tuckercarlson.com.

00:00:43.240 Here's the episode.

00:00:44.920 We are now three days out from the election.

00:00:47.980 There's a mad scramble, of course, in Washington for people to get positions of power in the new administration.

00:00:55.020 Some of them are good people.

00:00:56.100 Some of them are not.

00:00:57.640 You are being widely discussed as potentially the next national security advisor or secretary of defense taking over DOD.

00:01:05.440 I don't know what's going to happen.

00:01:06.960 I'm fairly confident you'll play a large and meaningful role in this administration.

00:01:11.880 You're never going to say any of that, but I thought that the audience might like some context for why we're having this conversation.

00:01:17.440 I think you're one of the very few people with deep experience in national security who shares the president's priorities in national security, which is amazing.

00:01:27.440 There aren't too many.

00:01:28.140 You're, I would say, the leader of them.

00:01:30.360 So, there's the context.

00:01:33.120 What does this next administration need to do in order to remain true to the president-elect's articulated positions on war and peace?

00:01:43.600 Well, thank you, Tucker.

00:01:45.560 And thank you very much, first off, for your confidence in me.

00:01:48.260 It means a great deal.

00:01:49.040 I don't make any-

00:01:49.700 It's heartfelt.

00:01:49.780 Well, I know, and that's why I'm deeply grateful and honored.

00:01:54.400 And I clearly don't make any presumptions about any role for myself.

00:01:57.220 But what I would say, and I mean this with all sincerity, is that I think the president of the United States, the president-elect, is exactly right that we stand on the possible precipice of World War III, and we need a fundamental change before we ram right into the iceberg.

00:02:10.400 I mean, I think the election is over, but this remains absolutely true, is that what I call the liberal-primacist alliance, basically the kind of policies of President Biden and Vice President Harris aligned with the primacists, I call them, we could call them the neoconservatives, have led us to a situation in which we're overextended, we're on the brink of war in multiple theaters, and we could lose them.

00:02:30.420 And I really want peace, and more importantly, President Trump ran to his historic credit on an agenda, as he said in his sort of victory speech, I don't start wars, I end them.

00:02:44.900 Now, I think my view is that we have to have- how you actually get to peace is a difficult question, and I had the honor of being on your show a few years ago when my book came out.

00:02:54.980 And I remember, I don't know if you recall, but I said, I was thinking about your question to President Trump about why is it worth defending allies, and I gave that a lot of thought.

00:03:03.260 And in a sense, my book is a response to that question, and I think you do need strength, you do.

00:03:08.360 Well, of course.

00:03:09.020 And you need peace through strength, but that term has become cheapened and distorted to become basically an excuse for an aggressive expansionist approach to foreign policy.

00:03:20.620 But I think you do, you know, it's real meaning, and President Trump is, in a sense, going back to the great tradition of the Republican Party, the Weinberger Doctrine, the Powell Doctrine, Nixon, Eisenhower, as Bob Dole used to put it.

00:03:32.840 These are Democrat wars.

00:03:34.140 It used to be Democrats that started wars and Republicans that ended or avoided them.

00:03:37.500 Eisenhower didn't go into Vietnam in 1954.

00:03:40.400 He did not intervene in Hungary in 1956.

00:03:42.760 Again, nobody thought he was a weak guy.

00:03:45.100 So what needs to happen right now?

00:03:46.520 Before you get into that, I just think it might be helpful to describe where we are now, because a lot of Americans, I'm in this category, were so absorbed in the election that we may have lost touch with what you opened your remarks by noting, which is we're on the brink of war in multiple theaters.

00:04:05.780 Just will you tell us where we are?

00:04:06.780 Absolutely.

00:04:07.560 Well, I think for the first time in basically 150 years, we are not clearly the world's largest economy.

00:04:13.880 We compete for that with China, and they are a far larger industrial power.

00:04:17.980 Russia, in purchasing power parity terms, is a very large economy with enormous industrial production capacity.

00:04:23.220 So North Korea advancing its nuclear missile program.

00:04:26.120 Russia is a larger manufacturing economy than a lot of us appreciate it, I think.

00:04:30.040 Yeah.

00:04:30.340 I mean, despite a lot of boasting, they're still outproducing the North Atlantic Alliance, including the United States, in artillery production, which is old technology, by like a factor of two or three.

00:04:39.040 Iran's two weeks from a nuclear weapon, according to Tony Blinken, and worse, these actors have come together.

00:04:45.860 Now, you will hear from the sort of primacists and liberals that that means that we have to fight them all at the same time.

00:04:50.840 No, to the contrary, it means they are collaborating together precisely to tie us down and deplete us.

00:04:56.280 And that's what's happened in the war in Ukraine, where we have expended a tremendous amount of weapons, ditto in places like attacking the Houthis and so forth.

00:05:03.780 At the same time, our defense industrial base has wildly atrophied from where it was 30 years ago.

00:05:08.800 And this is why the agenda for re-industrialization is so important.

00:05:11.660 But that's going to take a long time, as Senator Vance has pointed out.

00:05:15.520 Meantime, China.

00:05:17.200 Wait, so can I say it's not—I mean, I thought one of the justifications, the main justification for this wildly inflated Ukraine funding was that it was going to help re-establish America's industrial base.

00:05:30.100 In fact, one of the most kind of oft-used arguments by a lot of the advocates for the war in Ukraine was that we would sort of degrade the Russian military for a song and restore our defense industrial base at the same time.

00:05:41.960 Actually, more or less, the reverse has happened.

00:05:44.520 The Russian military is larger, and this is, you know, General Cavoli, the SACUR, has admitted this.

00:05:49.780 The Russian military is larger.

00:05:50.880 It's battle-hardened.

00:05:51.900 I mean, our military has not fought a peer adversary, well, I mean, really since World War II, but certainly since Vietnam and Korea.

00:06:00.320 The Russians have gone toe-to-toe with Ukrainians who are capable, and they have a revved-up defense industry at the same time.

00:06:06.560 So, in a sense, we're worse.

00:06:07.620 Meantime, the Europeans have basically been asleep at the switch, not going through with their defense buildup, with a few noble exceptions like Poland.

00:06:14.780 So—and then you look at China, which is by far the most formidable challenger, 10 times the GDP of Russia.

00:06:20.580 This administration, Tony Blinken, has said Xi Jinping has given the instructions to their military to be ready for a war over Taiwan by 2027.

00:06:28.680 Frank Kendall, the Secretary of the Air Force in the Biden administration, said the other day that he thinks the Chinese military will say they're ready.

00:06:35.280 We have to be ready for this.

00:06:37.100 My view is we desperately want peace.

00:06:40.860 The Chinese are going to look at us both in terms of our strength but also in terms of our political commitments.

00:06:46.000 And this is where I think President Trump has been exactly right, which is being willing to talk to President Xi Jinping, not insulting President Xi Jinping and President Putin and others unnecessarily, not supporting things like Taiwan independence, and at the same time being prepared to be strong.

00:07:02.080 And this is where I think if we appoint or if people are put into positions of power who think that we can walk and chew gum and do everything and start wars in three different theaters at the same time, not only will that be bad like it was in the Iraq War and often the same people, it will be far more catastrophic.

00:07:19.260 Tucker, I don't think this is an exaggeration.

00:07:20.920 I think we stand on the precipice of losing a major power war for the first time in our history.

00:07:26.200 So people need to know what time it is.

00:07:28.060 And that really requires focusing on China with the purpose of peace like we did in the Cold War, which was to say, we're going to be strong.

00:07:35.480 We're not going to go over the line like Eisenhower did in 1950.

00:07:38.140 He's not going to go into Hungary.

00:07:39.360 We're not going to go to Czechoslovakia in 1968.

00:07:40.920 But don't come across our line because you see it's not going to succeed for you.

00:07:44.500 So I think we really stand at a crossroads.

00:07:46.540 And I think President Trump has a mandate for peace.

00:07:49.460 So don't I just as an American, whatever happens to me, I so hope that we don't end up with the same failed recipe of starting wars all over the place or getting enmeshed in conflicts when we can't we can't afford to do so.

00:08:04.080 And they're not in the interest of the American people.

00:08:05.060 From a non-expert position, which is my position, just as someone who's watching, kind of, there does seem to be broad recognition that whatever our objectives in Ukraine were, we didn't achieve them and we can't.

00:08:17.040 Zelensky immediately comes out upon Trump's election and says, actually, I'm for peace.

00:08:21.660 That does maybe seem like it's winding down.

00:08:25.420 Who knows?

00:08:26.440 I hope.

00:08:27.020 But the noises are consistent with winding down.

00:08:29.100 Yeah.

00:08:29.420 So but at the same time, the very people who are pushing that war all of a sudden, like very excited about a war with Iran. 0.74

00:08:34.580 Yeah.

00:08:34.780 It's like they just seamlessly move.

00:08:37.140 It's like, oh, Ukraine, whatever.

00:08:38.640 Actually, the real problem is Iran and telling us that Iran's trying to murder President Trump, et cetera, et cetera.

00:08:43.340 So I don't know what's true.

00:08:44.760 I don't.

00:08:46.120 But how would the United States what would happen if we went to war with Iran?

00:08:49.680 Well, I mean, I think, you know, look, Iran's a bad regime. 1.00

00:08:53.420 We don't want to have a nuclear weapon.

00:08:54.760 We don't want to support Israel. 1.00

00:08:56.520 We don't want to be able to support groups attacking Israel, et cetera, et cetera.

00:08:59.720 But like, haven't we learned the lesson over the last 25 years about the ill-advised nature of very significant conflicts in the Middle East that don't have clear goals and clear connection to American interests?

00:09:10.700 Like, haven't we been avert?

00:09:11.760 Like, didn't we run this experiment a couple of times?

00:09:13.620 And it's often like the exact same people calling for war with Iran who were involved in the past.

00:09:21.200 And it's like, shouldn't there be some degree of accountability?

00:09:23.300 Moreover, it's like a bad idea in itself.

00:09:26.760 I mean, you know, like I was criticized in the bulwark by Eric Edelman, who is Dick Cheney's advisor and number three at the Pentagon under Bush.

00:09:33.600 He said my ideas were iconoclastic.

00:09:35.880 And I was like, thank you.

00:09:37.180 I'm delighted that you think my ideas are iconoclastic.

00:09:39.380 How could Eric Edelman be writing with any credibility at all on foreign policy questions after being, you know, intimately involved in the Iraq war and then never apologizing?

00:09:49.080 I don't know. There should be some international authority that requires contrition, like a like a moral UN where you don't get to say another word until you don ashes and sackcloth and apologize.

00:09:59.780 Who among us isn't? I'm certainly not inerrant.

00:10:02.500 I'm certainly not infallible, but like at least show some, you know, it's like Paul Jago of the Wall Street Journal a couple like a year ago gave a speech.

00:10:08.160 I treated the Iraq war as like a mulligan. You know, it's like, ah, I think that's like a big deal. 0.77

00:10:13.340 And, you know, obviously a lot of people got it, you know, had different views, etc.

00:10:16.500 But it's like it's kind of show the contrition, show the penance, show the show the learning.

00:10:20.920 And so that I think is the other thing, though, Tucker, is like it's the same people who are calling for attacking Iran, who are also calling for escalating the war in Ukraine or even a no fly zone,

00:10:32.400 recognizing an independent Taiwan or getting in a war with China or attacking North Korea.

00:10:37.720 It's like if we do all those things, we know objectively as a fact that our military is not capable of fighting more than one major war at a time.

00:10:44.600 So even if you did want to, getting in multiple fights with people at the same time is just like foolhardy.

00:10:51.040 And I mean, but the way I think about it is the Washington blob establishment can get us into wars and crises, but they can't fix the problem.

00:10:59.040 So it's really important right now.

00:11:01.020 And it seems to me that, you know, just listening to President Trump and his historic victory, the decisive mandate he got, his leadership, his mandate, his agenda for peace from a position of strength, use the military sparingly, but have it be strong.

00:11:13.640 It's really important not to get enmeshed all over the place and either bleed ourselves out or a catastrophic multi-front loss.

00:11:21.540 I think that's the last thing Donald Trump wants.

00:11:25.040 It really seems that way.

00:11:25.860 Right.

00:11:26.240 I mean, the arc of his life is just is so remarkable.

00:11:29.440 The redemption that we just saw on Tuesday without precedent really in American history.

00:11:33.920 And so if you wanted to destroy his presidency, his second presidency, what's, you know, what's the one foolproof way to destroy it?

00:11:41.180 No, no president has ever lost a great power war.

00:11:44.740 Donald Trump has run to his enormous historic credit.

00:11:47.460 He has been shot.

00:11:48.260 He has been had lawfare conducted against him and he has had the bravery and the vision and the persistence and the commitment at great personal physical cost, but also to his reputation, his family, etc.

00:11:59.960 To stand up for these principles that the United States desperately needs, putting Americans interests first, peace, prosperity, etc.

00:12:09.480 Reindustrialization.

00:12:10.120 Now is the time to put that into practice, whoever it is.

00:12:13.040 I just I can't stress how how important that is.

00:12:15.780 And if you're thinking about a historical legacy, Joe Biden's going to leave a legacy that's terrible.

00:12:20.000 I mean, where, you know, for all the things you mentioned, the war in Ukraine, two and a half years in, Jillian Barnes, New York Times just reported that the intelligence community is reporting that the Ukrainians are losing, that it's not a stalemate.

00:12:32.800 So after all that, after all the preaching, after all the moralism, the Ukrainians are losing the war and the Russians are making enormous progress.

00:12:40.340 And we're unprepared.

00:12:41.760 We're unprepared for a war with China.

00:12:43.740 The Middle East is in the worst situation in years.

00:12:46.660 We can't even stop the Houthis, like a third or fourth rate power. 1.00

00:12:50.940 And we're not prepared.

00:12:52.900 So they've left us on the precipice.

00:12:55.140 They've put us on, you know, the Titanic is is directing towards the iceberg.

00:12:59.300 It's going to take a sharp turn.

00:13:01.860 And the way I think about this, and when I worked at the Brown Order working for President Trump in his in his first term, when we worked on the defense strategy to try to get us to prioritize again, in my view, with the same logic, very consistent with what President Trump, I think, was trying to lay out.

00:13:14.980 That was like, you know, we were a couple miles from the iceberg back then.

00:13:18.760 Now we're like right up, you know, we're a few thousand yards and it's not easy to turn the Titanic.

00:13:23.560 And if you turn the Titanic 90 degrees, people are going to fall out of their bunks.

00:13:28.000 Chandeliers and beautiful, you know, plates are going to get broken.

00:13:30.800 But that's where we are.

00:13:31.740 But that is the fault of what I call the liberal primacist alliance.

00:13:34.300 That is the fault of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and the primacist sort of old school Republicans who, if they pursued that policy further, would lead us to catastrophe.

00:13:43.940 Then how is it that, from what I can tell, pretty much every person in the running for the big national security jobs other than you is part of that alliance?

00:13:53.400 And, you know, I know them all and I like some of them, a couple sitting U.S. senators who I think are really nice guys.

00:14:00.840 But they're tools of the people you described, like completely.

00:14:04.520 There's kind of no doubt about it.

00:14:05.880 But how is it that there are so few people on the Republican side in national security with experience who agree with the presidential act who leads the party?

00:14:17.700 So I've thought a lot about this because I've been fighting, as you kindly gesture, and a sort of lonely battle within the sort of blob to put us on, like, to me, what is common sense?

00:14:27.520 Exactly. That's right.

00:14:28.660 And yet so few people do it.

00:14:30.420 And why is that?

00:14:31.220 It's so weird.

00:14:31.940 And honestly, so much of your insight and commentaries, both on this show and your other podcast interviews and your shows, et cetera, because I think it's like, I think there's a human sociological element.

00:14:42.480 I mean, not to get, and one of the things that's kind of bizarre is that I think, like, today, people like us, we can learn a lot from the new left of the 60s and 70s.

00:14:49.300 Like, there's something wrong with the establishment and the way the establishment.

00:14:53.400 Now, I believe there's always an establishment.

00:14:54.700 There's an establishment in Mao's China.

00:14:56.400 But we need a better establishment.

00:14:58.020 Well, that's it.

00:14:58.520 You know, you're a fan of Teddy Roosevelt, too.

00:15:01.000 Like, the idea that, like, the establishment just does what it used to do is, like, no.

00:15:05.680 The point is the establishment is supposed to serve the people, right?

00:15:08.360 Of course.

00:15:08.840 But I think there's an element, and I try to give credit because, like, yeah, there's money and stuff, but there's other ways of making money.

00:15:14.480 I think it's this psychic kind of, like, network benefit of being part of, like, essentially functionally an imperial capital.

00:15:21.420 Yes.

00:15:21.580 And everybody comes to, and you know this, right?

00:15:23.660 They come to the capital and say, you're so wise.

00:15:25.760 We need your leadership.

00:15:27.120 You're so moral and your vision.

00:15:29.440 And it happens in Congress where people come.

00:15:31.760 They probably not thought about foreign policy that much.

00:15:33.900 There are all these structures set up to kind of acculturate them.

00:15:36.500 And again, like, I don't want to sound too new left, but, like, you know, this is kind of what happens.

00:15:41.520 And so you need, I think, a clear-eyed view of how to change and, frankly, a willingness to buck the system.

00:15:48.380 And this, to me, is like, and I'm certainly far from the only person to make this point.

00:15:51.860 I think you have as well.

00:15:52.680 It's like, President Trump ran against the system.

00:15:55.880 And that is so important because it's the system, the liberal primacist alliance in other things like trade and economics, et cetera, that need to be a fundamental change.

00:16:05.440 And already he's paid the price, literally, and shown the bravery and commitment to go through that.

00:16:10.500 And so now it's about, like, capitalizing.

00:16:13.560 And, frankly, my hope is if that happened, a lot of these people, especially in the younger generations, would follow.

00:16:20.540 And forgive me for a little bit of patting myself on the back, but I think it's an apropos comment.

00:16:24.460 I was out at a thing a few months ago and this young guy came up, you know, strong guy, whatever.

00:16:29.020 And he said, hey, you know, Mr. Colby, I'm going in the Marines.

00:16:32.780 And I just want to say all the young Republicans love what you're saying.

00:16:35.680 And I said to him, I was like, well, that's good because all the old Republicans hate it.

00:16:38.660 And he's like, yeah, that's the point.

00:16:39.940 Boy, do they.

00:16:40.700 Boy, do they.

00:16:41.200 They do they.

00:16:41.720 And that's like, to me, I always, I think of myself, I'm like the first line, not to, if this is, although, you know, there are people out there you wonder about.

00:16:48.500 But, like, this is, this is not, like, actually getting shot.

00:16:51.300 But it's like, I'm trying to think about how do we protect Americans from not getting shot?

00:16:55.460 Of course.

00:16:56.120 Right?

00:16:56.640 And so, and so I think the young people can see it.

00:16:58.920 You know, the young people who were, like, you know, who were not bought in to, you know, who have not been kind of acculturated,

00:17:06.680 worked for ex-senator on this committee for 10 years and then went to that think tank and blah, blah, blah.

00:17:11.520 I think, I think they, they, if you build it, they will come.

00:17:14.800 But it's like the first echelon.

00:17:17.680 We take a lot of, we take a lot of metaphorical flack, hopefully metaphorical. 0.70

00:17:22.620 I just, and I won't go on about this, but I am a little bit distressed by it, very distressed by it.

00:17:28.780 But, like, someone like Mike Pompeo, I'll just say the name, who I don't think is going to get a job in this administration.

00:17:33.940 I would pray that he's not. 0.96

00:17:35.260 I think he's a criminal.

00:17:36.160 I've said that. 0.98

00:17:37.200 Plotted to murder someone who hadn't even been charged with a crime.

00:17:39.480 That's a criminal act.

00:17:40.580 Should be arrested for that.

00:17:41.540 That's my view. 0.95

00:17:42.040 But even if you don't believe that, he's been anti-Trump for eight years, worked against Trump, and he's a crazed neocon.

00:17:53.300 And he's still being talked about and promoted.

00:17:55.600 Again, I don't think he's going to get the job, but promoted to run the national security establishment in the United States.

00:18:02.760 How can that even happen?

00:18:04.280 Well, look, I mean, I think it's, if I were advising President Trump, I would say, especially now that the mandate has happened, why pick anybody who's not aligned with what you're trying to do?

00:18:20.360 I mean, I saw the last ad that President Trump ran.

00:18:23.700 I mean, it was a stirring ad, like, and it won.

00:18:26.260 Who was in that ad?

00:18:27.500 You, Tulsi Gabbard, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Vivek, and Vice President-elect Vance.

00:18:33.540 That is the mandate, you know?

00:18:37.120 So, like, my hope is that he will own that.

00:18:41.040 And that is the way for, that's the way for peace.

00:18:43.160 And there's going to be debates about various policies and how to emphasize this or that.

00:18:47.240 But why go back, especially in a situation where, as successful as the first term is, the situation that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are leaving President Trump in January is, I cannot stress how dangerous it is.

00:19:00.880 And he's right.

00:19:01.480 I mean, the way that President Trump, again, has commendably talked about the risk of nuclear war.

00:19:05.880 I worked on nuclear issues a lot.

00:19:07.660 My kind of starting point a lot was, like, working on nuclear weapons and nuclear strategy and arms control.

00:19:11.980 I worked on arms control with the Russians. 0.51

00:19:13.680 We should be afraid of these things.

00:19:15.680 You know, a salutary fear, not like an unmanning fear, if you will.

00:19:19.680 Right.

00:19:19.840 But, like, a salutary fear, you know, the beginning of wisdom is fear or whatever the Bible says to that effect.

00:19:24.820 I should know that.

00:19:25.760 But, you know.

00:19:26.180 But it's true.

00:19:26.540 It's true, right?

00:19:27.580 Is understanding and calibrating.

00:19:29.380 And to me, one of the, like, touch grass kind of things about a lot of the people who are calling for, like, no-fly zones over Ukraine and intervening against the Russians and escalating and allowing U.S. weapons to be overtly used to attack Moscow and Russian strategic, you know, forces sites.

00:19:44.740 Like, that is obviously crazy.

00:19:47.820 It's like, time out.

00:19:49.000 Like, that is obviously.

00:19:50.260 There are many Republicans.

00:19:51.240 Yeah.

00:19:51.680 In fact, some of the Republicans.

00:19:52.680 That's why I think that the arguments within the Republican Party in some ways are fiercer.

00:19:57.680 Because my hope, Tucker, and I think this is something you've been, you know, on for a while, but it's, like, the Democrats are, like, they're sort of inherently out of position right now.

00:20:07.400 Like, where is the left?

00:20:09.020 Where are the people who are, like, anti-war?

00:20:11.500 Where are the people who say the CIA is not above reproach or the FBI is not above reproach?

00:20:15.980 Who are the people, you know, right mills or whatever, the power elite and all this stuff.

00:20:21.320 Those people have, those movements have to come back.

00:20:24.240 And I think that that's something where, especially given the mandate that President Trump has been, has won, that hope, I mean, you know, whatever you think of Bernie Sanders, the fact that he said, like, we're out of, we're out of position.

00:20:35.400 You know, and others are saying they're out of position.

00:20:37.580 My hope is that Democrats will go back, in a sense, to the kind of arguments that I'm making that I think you could have heard a Democrat make 10 minutes ago.

00:20:45.500 Right.

00:20:45.960 Or 30 years ago or 40 years ago.

00:20:47.400 Hey, we need, we've got to be able to talk to our opponents.

00:20:50.220 We have to have a strong military but not get into unnecessary wars.

00:20:53.980 That's just common sense.

00:20:55.320 That's for sure.

00:20:56.100 Do you remember when Democrats used to refer to abortion as something that should be safe, legal, and rare?

00:21:02.540 Well, they've changed their view on that.

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00:23:59.860 TUCKER says it best.

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00:25:02.120 You mentioned CIA.

00:25:06.000 Now is probably a good time to address it.

00:25:08.500 Your last name is Colby.

00:25:09.640 That is familiar.

00:25:10.780 That's a familiar name.

00:25:11.820 Anyone knows the history of the Central Intelligence Agency.

00:25:14.520 Your grandfather ran it, William Colby.

00:25:17.900 And so there are two interesting things.

00:25:19.760 One is, I'm sure this will set off, just explosions of theorizing on the Internet.

00:25:25.560 So what is your view of CIA?

00:25:27.540 How is it?

00:25:28.120 I think that's why your family's in Washington.

00:25:29.780 Yeah, well, actually, my great-grandfather was a career army officer.

00:25:34.420 So I come from a kind of a national security, you know, background.

00:25:38.420 I mean, my dad, not so much.

00:25:39.740 But, you know, look, my view on the intelligence community,

00:25:42.340 and I worked on this stuff myself when I was kind of early in my career,

00:25:45.040 although on the commission that looked at why Iraq intelligence is wrong.

00:25:48.060 I didn't agree with my grandfather for everything.

00:25:50.000 With everything, I didn't know him super well.

00:25:52.340 I mean, I know a lot about how he approached things and how he, you know, his record and so forth.

00:25:57.240 But one thing where I do really agree with him and where his legal training and the fact that actually,

00:26:02.500 as Jim Schlesinger said, he was the first liberal to become director of central intelligence,

00:26:05.880 was that he thought, and I agree with him, that you need a CIA.

00:26:09.520 You need a national security establishment, but it's not above reproach, and it needs to be accountable.

00:26:15.100 And that's what he wanted.

00:26:15.680 You know, the interesting thing about him, and, you know, just to stress that I don't take any credit for it,

00:26:20.220 like I'm just telling you, just because you asked me, but, you know, he was in World War II.

00:26:24.100 He was then a field guy.

00:26:25.420 He was in Europe, and then he was in Vietnam for a long time.

00:26:27.760 And then he kind of ended up as director by happenstance, as these things sometimes do, during Watergate.

00:26:32.920 And so, and he had not been really involved.

00:26:34.740 He wasn't one of the inside club of like the, you know, I see you got Dick Helms' book,

00:26:38.660 the man who kept the secret, because he was the kind of ultimate insider, Washington operator, kind of.

00:26:42.860 My grandfather was out, unlike me, I'm more of a, you know, D.C. type, policy type.

00:26:46.880 But I think he came in and he said, there's a chance that, I mean, remember this,

00:26:51.960 the Democrats at the time, the congressional class of 1974, very left-wing,

00:26:56.420 a lot of them were thinking, let's just get rid of this place.

00:26:58.420 Let's get rid of the intelligence community.

00:26:59.600 And his view is like, that's not good for our country, but it's not good that they're spying on Americans.

00:27:04.640 You know, I've gotten debates on some of these on Twitter sometimes about like,

00:27:08.180 whether the American government is funding some of the stuff, you know, in Europe or whatever,

00:27:12.380 NATO, blah, blah, blah, that's reverberating back into the American political system.

00:27:15.320 It's like, yeah, it's happened before, you know, right?

00:27:18.540 For a long time.

00:27:19.400 For a long time.

00:27:20.200 So it's like, it's not unreasonable.

00:27:21.720 And by the way, sunlight is the best disinfectant.

00:27:24.840 And by the way, who were some of the people who were opposed at that time?

00:27:27.740 Dick Cheney, Don Rumsfeld.

00:27:30.000 You know, they were opposed to any kind of Henry Kissinger,

00:27:32.820 any kind of accountability for the intelligence community.

00:27:34.980 And so that's how I look at it.

00:27:36.420 I think there's a real need for accountability.

00:27:38.180 Also in the professional military.

00:27:40.580 What is this going on with four star officers recently retired who have no political vetting?

00:27:47.600 They haven't been elected dog catcher weighing in on extremely sensitive points on American

00:27:53.440 calling one of the presidential candidates a fascist.

00:27:56.840 That is wildly inappropriate.

00:27:58.540 There needs to be a fundamental change.

00:27:59.840 First of all, it's wrong.

00:28:01.940 Second of all, it's not consistent with our constitutional order.

00:28:05.920 Remember that our founding fathers who had gone through the revolution, who had fought a war

00:28:09.740 against a great power and won, they were like, the nasty politics is a feature.

00:28:16.240 Alexander Hamilton and Thomas Jefferson talking about each other's mother.

00:28:19.220 Fine.

00:28:20.120 Standing military?

00:28:21.320 Uh-uh.

00:28:21.940 We only built a serious standing military.

00:28:23.740 American military officers wore civilian clothes into the Pentagon as late as World War II, maybe

00:28:30.100 even after.

00:28:31.280 So we have come, this is since 1947 or since World War II, basically.

00:28:34.960 And I think we need it given what's happening, but it needs to be accountable.

00:28:38.300 The third point I would make about this group is like, where do they get off?

00:28:42.060 Like, has our military been successful?

00:28:43.940 Have our political military goals been achieved over the last 25 years?

00:28:47.920 You know, if you're like, if you're Dwight Eisenhower, and by the way, that's most of that

00:28:52.460 guilt goes towards the liberal primacist alliance, the politicians who did it, yes.

00:28:57.100 But also the war leaders who, you know, for instance, H.R. McMaster wrote a book called

00:29:01.500 Dereliction of Duty about how the generals in Vietnam did not tell Lyndon Johnson they couldn't

00:29:06.620 successfully prosecute that war.

00:29:07.960 Okay.

00:29:08.480 I agree with you.

00:29:09.700 How is the senior military done?

00:29:12.080 So I think some humility, getting back to basics and staying out of politics is really needed.

00:29:15.980 It, it's infuriating.

00:29:18.940 It does challenge like the idea of our constitutional order.

00:29:23.540 I agree completely, but it's also ominous.

00:29:25.680 So when you read that the Pentagon now has a new policy where at the direction of civilian

00:29:29.900 leadership, they can kill Americans in the United States.

00:29:33.180 What is that?

00:29:34.420 I mean, look, there's a lot of things that need to be taken a look at where like we have

00:29:38.040 gotten, especially after 9-11, where it's just metastasized, right?

00:29:41.940 Where we need to ask ourselves, what is the right?

00:29:44.840 And I think you've done this like commendably where you're saying, look, you know, I was

00:29:47.900 here on this position here and I'm same, same thing where like, you know, but look at, look

00:29:51.800 at the costs and people like, you know, who were, we would say on the old new left would

00:29:56.480 have said, oh my God, this is going to be abused. 0.77

00:29:57.900 And people like us were like, ah, don't worry about it.

00:29:59.700 And now they were right.

00:30:01.140 So let's take a new look at that.

00:30:02.320 Again, I think we need to have the capabilities, but I also think this is where this group,

00:30:07.280 I mean, practically speaking, not only former, I mean, former CIA leaders implying that President

00:30:13.260 Trump was a Russian agent is a wild abuse of the trust because it's a special trust with 0.58

00:30:18.480 classified information and special authorities.

00:30:20.980 And you have, it's almost like a religious obligation where there needs to be a self-discipline

00:30:25.060 and an understanding that there's certain things you can't do, you know, and that, and that's

00:30:29.240 been deeply violated.

00:30:30.660 And I think, frankly, Republicans agree that a lot of Democrats or independents or whatever

00:30:37.180 voted for President Trump.

00:30:38.220 They've delivered a verdict on this issue.

00:30:40.000 So I think you need people who have that balance, which to me is the American way is to say,

00:30:44.400 look, the people have spoken, this stuff got out of, got out of hand and we need to have

00:30:49.580 a balance, but we need to preserve what we need for our security.

00:30:53.940 What do you do in Ukraine?

00:30:54.980 Well, one is I hope the president is successful and leans forward on his plan to end the war. 0.70

00:31:03.180 And I just say, I don't know what that is, but nobody knew what Dwight Eisenhower was

00:31:06.480 talking about in 1952.

00:31:07.640 Nobody knew what Richard Nixon was talking about in 1968 and nobody knew what Ronald Reagan

00:31:11.000 was talking about in 1980.

00:31:11.860 You already see indications that players, including President Putin, might be changing

00:31:16.140 and the Ukrainians for that matter.

00:31:17.700 So I hope there's a basis.

00:31:18.800 What exactly that looks like?

00:31:20.260 I don't think, you know, you're not going to like liberate Crimea, right?

00:31:23.660 That's obvious.

00:31:24.300 And the war's not going well.

00:31:25.820 I think that's step one.

00:31:27.040 And I think the Europeans need to, I mean, this is something I've been banging on. 1.00

00:31:30.160 It's just so common sense.

00:31:31.680 And by the way, you want to talk about who's helping Biden and Harris, you know, will go

00:31:37.520 to Europe and say, you don't need to worry about anything, but so would kind of primacist

00:31:40.280 type Republicans.

00:31:41.360 They would go to Europe and say, don't worry, we can do everything.

00:31:43.780 We're leading.

00:31:44.600 They didn't do the Europeans any favors. 0.58

00:31:46.180 They didn't do the Ukrainians any favors, let alone, you know, anybody else, let alone the

00:31:49.820 American people, because they promised things they couldn't deliver. 0.98

00:31:52.140 And this is something where, you know, and I said this, I was, Ross Douthat, we had an

00:31:57.580 interview right before the election, the New York Times, you know, where I get, oh, isn't

00:32:01.080 it, and Ross didn't say this, but it was sort of like questioning the morality of what President

00:32:04.220 Trump's saying.

00:32:04.660 I don't think there's been a stronger case, a more important time for foreign policy that

00:32:10.880 is more moral than what you see, which is the moralism, which is all intention.

00:32:14.740 You see it on the left from Tony Blinken just saying, oh, the Ukrainians are fighting for

00:32:18.660 freedom, so we need to do X, Y, Z, and then failing.

00:32:20.740 The way I think about it is like, no, we need a foreign policy that's more like, how does

00:32:23.680 a parent think about the responsibility of the child?

00:32:25.840 Or let's say you're on the board of an orphanage.

00:32:28.740 You know, you might have a really good guy, he goes to church every Sunday, he's like,

00:32:32.340 you know, but never cheats at cards or whatever, but he sucks at handling the money.

00:32:36.820 You know, you're going to hire a guy who's actually going to take care of the orphans.

00:32:39.260 Exactly.

00:32:39.720 And that is, and to me-

00:32:41.340 Well, by the way, if all the orphans die, it doesn't matter how much you love them.

00:32:44.760 Exactly.

00:32:45.340 Or claim that you do.

00:32:46.240 You don't actually love them.

00:32:47.180 Well, of course you don't, because the purpose of a system is its effect.

00:32:50.940 And what's the effect of the war in Ukraine is to depopulate Ukraine and now to allow 1.00

00:32:57.060 foreigners, including many Americans, including BlackRock, to buy the soil of Ukraine.

00:33:03.180 I mean, it's certainly not, whatever this has happened has definitely not been beneficial.

00:33:06.520 Well, the Ukrainians just lost Ukraine, but not to the Russians, but through the encouragement

00:33:10.480 of the Biden administration.

00:33:11.400 That's my view of it.

00:33:13.780 But how close do you think we have come to a nuclear exchange with Russia during the last

00:33:17.800 two minutes?

00:33:17.940 I think it's close.

00:33:18.840 I mean, and Woodward for, you know, I mean, I'm not sure how reliable he is on everything,

00:33:22.980 but I think the reporting that the Biden administration, which was against interest, was very worried

00:33:28.140 about Russian nuclear employment in later 2022 is very, very concerning.

00:33:32.980 I think it was quite real.

00:33:34.220 And the people who are blithe and insouciant about it, I think, is a incredibly irresponsible

00:33:38.920 and should not be near serious decisions.

00:33:40.940 Who are those people?

00:33:41.720 Well, I think you see this kind of liberal premises.

00:33:43.820 There's a lot of people who signed the no-fly zone or who made comments on Twitter or otherwise

00:33:49.400 around that time and have said since, have said, oh, you know, lift all the restrictions

00:33:54.080 on the employment of U.S. forces.

00:33:56.160 And by the way, what's very clear is a lot of these people, if given the opportunity, if they

00:33:59.760 thought the political environment would bear it, would support direct intervention, which

00:34:03.020 if we go to war with the Russians directly, the Russians are very prepared to use nuclear 0.85

00:34:08.100 weapons.

00:34:08.360 So we have to be realistic about what that entails.

00:34:10.900 What does that entail?

00:34:11.800 Well, I mean, I think the Russians, one thing about Putin that's important, and again, like,

00:34:18.160 you don't have to like the person to understand that we need to take this guy seriously,

00:34:21.340 right, is he, you know, as he was, as he assumed power and took over from Yeltsin, which in

00:34:27.200 the Russian mind was a catastrophically disastrous period, one of the first things Putin invested 0.99

00:34:32.400 in was the recapitalization of the Russian nuclear forces.

00:34:35.360 And the way Putin talks about Russian nuclear weapons and nuclear strategy indicates that

00:34:40.280 he has a quite sophisticated understanding of nuclear strategy.

00:34:43.320 And of course, you know, a lot of it is speculation because thank God they've only been used once

00:34:47.420 or twice, but it says to me, this guy's credible and he has an idea of how to use him.

00:34:53.440 You don't start by blowing up Washington, D.C.

00:34:55.480 You start potentially with something like battlefield use, selective strikes against

00:35:00.020 things like places in Europe or more peripheral targets, but it can go up there and then you

00:35:04.340 manipulate risk.

00:35:05.400 And if weapons are used in that way, you can see millions of people.

00:35:09.500 I mean, and we have almost no defense against, that's why I think President Trump, for instance,

00:35:12.780 like having a better shield would be great.

00:35:14.280 But right now, we're pretty much denuded.

00:35:18.260 I just don't understand.

00:35:20.040 I mean, I guess it's kind of late in the game to whine about it, but we provided, you

00:35:24.300 know, a missile defense shield to another country, but we don't have one.

00:35:27.720 Like, how did that happen?

00:35:29.440 I don't know.

00:35:29.980 I mean, I think that's something that we can work on.

00:35:34.000 I mean, it's technically very difficult, but I think having something better than what

00:35:37.540 we have now.

00:35:38.000 We're always bragging about, you know, the use of the sophisticated use of our defensive

00:35:41.820 missile technology abroad.

00:35:45.180 Like, did it occur to nobody that the purpose of the U.S. military is to defend the United

00:35:48.440 States?

00:35:48.940 Well, it is.

00:35:49.740 And by the way, up until the ABM treaty was signed in the late 60s, you would go around

00:35:53.900 American cities and there would be Nike Ajax and Nike Hercules nuclear-tipped missile

00:35:58.120 defense interceptors and other kinds of NORAD and all these kinds of things.

00:36:02.860 So I think having a stronger defense of the American homeland makes sense.

00:36:06.100 And also, like, you know, people talk about the American military being used, you know,

00:36:10.180 in relation to Mexico.

00:36:11.140 It's like, well, I think Mexico is like, you know, and the immigration issue is very, very

00:36:14.000 complicated and everything.

00:36:15.300 But like, you know, the American military is to defend the United States, right?

00:36:18.180 So like, that should be, you know, so to me, the core missions of the American military

00:36:22.420 that we really need to focus on is defense of the homeland, preventing China from becoming 1.00

00:36:26.240 the hegemonic power in Asia, because I think we'll never re-industrialize, we'll never 0.99

00:36:29.300 be autonomous and be what America needs to be if China dominates Asia.

00:36:32.420 But I hope and think we can do that without a war, working with others that pull their

00:36:36.460 own weight.

00:36:37.780 And then having an ability to make sure that we don't have a replication of 9-11.

00:36:44.080 Some of that is like being smarter about how we use our military.

00:36:47.620 But I think some of it is, you know, you got to keep tabs out there.

00:36:50.560 And then I think it's like about supporting, you know, people say Trump is anti-ally.

00:36:54.360 I think that's totally wrong.

00:36:55.300 It's just a different model of allies that's obviously, A, is much closer to the Cold War model.

00:36:59.420 And B, is common sense, is like partnership.

00:37:01.580 They say Trump is anti-ally.

00:37:03.080 So our, of course, most important ally in Europe is Germany.

00:37:06.960 Yes, which is totally.

00:37:08.600 And we just destroyed.

00:37:09.880 And so, but by the way, we had a direct hand.

00:37:12.860 This is not speculation.

00:37:13.960 I'm willing to say it's fact in blowing up Nord Stream.

00:37:17.180 So I know we're blaming the Ukrainians, but like we did that. 1.00

00:37:20.620 I'm just going to say that.

00:37:21.880 No, that's not true.

00:37:22.560 It is true.

00:37:22.980 So how exactly do we get to launch an act of industrial terrorism against our closest NATO ally?

00:37:29.240 How is that allyship?

00:37:31.600 Well, the thing that's weird, and this gets, I think, also into the context of like who benefits, you know, Cui Bono, right?

00:37:38.280 Yeah.

00:37:38.520 Is like, so since the Ukraine war broke out, the European economy and particularly the German economy has been like in freefall.

00:37:44.940 So there's this kind of cute argument for a while that we had somehow like benefited from Europe sucking air after the Ukraine war broke out.

00:37:53.520 I've heard many people say that.

00:37:54.600 And it's like, well, no, no, wait, hold on.

00:37:56.100 Our point, if you go back to like Dwight Eisenhower and like common sense is like, no, we want them to stand on our two feet.

00:38:01.020 Like I don't get a rise out of lording it over the Europeans. 0.92

00:38:04.520 This is sort of this mindset that like.

00:38:06.860 Well, this is still fundamentally a European country.

00:38:09.000 This was a European colony.

00:38:10.080 So Europe is basically allied with the United States on a very fundamental level or certainly has been for 250 years.

00:38:16.100 So destroying Europe.

00:38:18.520 Well, right.

00:38:19.020 With some exceptions.

00:38:19.860 But in general.

00:38:20.780 You fight with the people closest to you.

00:38:22.740 Well, that's right.

00:38:23.580 But I mean, like Christian Europe, right?

00:38:26.960 It's basically our ally.

00:38:28.600 And destroying Western Europe, which I think we've done. 0.85

00:38:32.260 How does that help us?

00:38:33.040 I don't understand.

00:38:34.060 I don't think that it's.

00:38:34.920 I mean, the interesting thing about that is, I mean, you know, obviously we're, you know, settled, you know, originally by Europeans.

00:38:40.140 Now we have people coming from all over the world, et cetera.

00:38:41.820 But the thing is, actually, if you look back at our early history, we stayed out of Europe.

00:38:45.820 Oh, I know.

00:38:46.160 And we were actually more involved in the Western Hemisphere, particularly, you know, Caribbean and Asia, actually.

00:38:51.660 So people say, oh, you know, you're never, we're never going to get focused on Asia.

00:38:54.360 I don't think that's true.

00:38:55.280 Who opened the black, who opened the black ships? 0.94

00:38:57.100 Open Japan.

00:38:57.740 Exactly.

00:38:58.160 People were trading in a lot of the early American fortunes.

00:39:00.280 You know, the Peabody Essex Museum in Salem.

00:39:03.060 That was China, right?

00:39:04.520 People trading in Canton, sometimes with opium, you know, and then like Samoa, Hawaii, et cetera.

00:39:09.520 So I'm not saying, like, we have a strong interest in Europe.

00:39:13.140 The Philippines, of course, thank you.

00:39:15.540 In fact, my great-grandfather, we were talking about our families, like I, he was an army officer in the interwar period and he was stationed at the American, there was like a concession in China, not China's proudest period.

00:39:25.940 But, you know, that we were, we were present.

00:39:28.080 So what that, what I think that means to me is a couple of things.

00:39:30.860 One, if you actually go back to American history at our best and really kind of, you know, the first kind of, really until 1989, we did pretty well with the exception, I think, to things like Vietnam and stuff like that.

00:39:43.160 But it was pretty hard-nosed.

00:39:44.300 Like, you go back to Washington's farewell address, Hamilton, et cetera.

00:39:47.860 It's like, we're looking after number one.

00:39:49.540 So this idea that America first is somehow inconsistent, it's like, by the way, a republic is supposed to be in the interests of everybody, right?

00:39:57.380 Like, that's the definition.

00:39:58.700 So when people say Trump is transactional or whatever, I'm like, good, right?

00:40:02.140 We need, he's like the, you know, the CEO of America and the board is saying, hey, look after our interests, right?

00:40:08.920 That's actually what you want.

00:40:10.320 And then on Europe, it's like, we don't actually benefit.

00:40:13.140 I mean, it's, it's been a disaster.

00:40:14.540 I think objectively the policy over the last two and a half years in particular has been a total disaster.

00:40:19.280 Germany is in real economic straits.

00:40:21.360 The Ukrainians are losing the war.

00:40:22.840 They haven't built up their military, but, you know, hey, Joe Biden got a medal from Olaf Schultz, who's probably going to be out of a job as well.

00:40:28.740 I hope so.

00:40:29.280 In a few months.

00:40:30.000 For their sake.

00:40:30.960 I mean, I don't believe in like, in intervening, apparently the Europeans, Schultz himself, feel free to intervene in our politics.

00:40:36.840 Like Schultz endorsed Biden, do your job.

00:40:40.060 I was, I was at the Republican convention as you were a couple of months ago.

00:40:42.560 And I was getting lectured by a few members of the Bundestag, the German Congress equivalent.

00:40:47.500 Conservatives, putative conservatives.

00:40:49.100 And they were like, why can't you do what Reagan did?

00:40:50.560 And I said, you know what?

00:40:51.600 There's some problems with that, et cetera.

00:40:52.920 Like great debt to GDP, our military.

00:40:55.080 How about you start out by spending as much on defense as the American people do?

00:40:59.680 Like, why don't our, like that, that to me is like what President Trump, and against the whole foreign policy establishment.

00:41:04.980 Why?

00:41:05.300 Because the foreign policy establishment likes the dependency model.

00:41:08.940 Of course.

00:41:09.840 But they like the welfare model in the United States.

00:41:12.060 They want people in public housing.

00:41:13.600 Right.

00:41:13.900 And that's what I've said to the Europeans. 0.96

00:41:15.060 And it's part of my message to the Europeans is like, hey, it's not just your fault. 0.51

00:41:17.900 I'm not just castigating you as responsible you are.

00:41:20.200 It's also our fault, especially our establishment.

00:41:22.300 But if you look at the message from the American people, it's we don't want more of that establishment.

00:41:26.980 And that's, again, why it's so important to have the right policies and vision.

00:41:31.260 Well, we've got the vision.

00:41:32.140 The question now is implementation.

00:41:33.060 So the problems for the president-elect are the same as they were in the first administration, I would say.

00:41:39.820 How do you staff this thing with people who are aligned with you?

00:41:42.440 Right.

00:41:42.820 And how do you keep the people who presently occupy every position of power, who operate the levers of power, how do you keep them from wrecking the project secretly?

00:41:52.800 Yeah.

00:41:53.540 And the thing that's different is that the international situation that he's being left with is truly dire.

00:41:59.400 And so there's no room for, you know, kind of like, you know, sort of delay or...

00:42:06.920 There's no...

00:42:07.440 Look, I'm sorry.

00:42:08.360 I don't want to start attacking people, but I just know everybody, as I know you do.

00:42:12.400 Well...

00:42:13.020 They have...

00:42:13.820 No, no.

00:42:14.240 I mean, the people who want these jobs in the Trump...

00:42:18.060 The second Trump administration, and there's no...

00:42:21.720 They act like it's 1985.

00:42:23.580 That's the thing.

00:42:24.200 They have not updated their files. 1.00

00:42:25.600 These are the dumbest people I think I've ever met. 0.98

00:42:27.340 Vivek has been great on this. 1.00

00:42:28.340 Yes.

00:42:28.560 Like, in the debate when he said to Pence it's 1983.

00:42:30.240 Why shouldn't he be Secretary of State, by the way?

00:42:31.740 I think Vivek would be an amazing, amazing...

00:42:33.680 I mean, he's there.

00:42:34.280 He was out hustling for the president.

00:42:36.380 You know, he's...

00:42:37.660 I mean, we all say, you know, what time it is.

00:42:39.120 But he, like, delivered these memorable lines against Pence in that debate.

00:42:43.340 And then he debated John Bolton, I think, at VMI.

00:42:45.840 And it was just like...

00:42:46.760 It was a very human point.

00:42:47.740 I saw the segment where he's just like, you grew up...

00:42:50.320 And this is being generous, honestly, to John Bolton, frankly, but...

00:42:52.960 Which I admired Vivek on that point.

00:42:55.020 But he said, you grew up in the era of Apollo 11.

00:42:58.180 You know, and I grew up in the era...

00:42:59.440 And he's younger than I am.

00:43:00.420 The global financial crisis, Iraq, failed wars, you know, increasingly fractious society,

00:43:05.780 et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.

00:43:06.740 And it's like, you know, nobody...

00:43:08.380 There's a friend of mine who was interviewed in one of these stories about the new right

00:43:12.420 and so forth.

00:43:12.880 And he said, nobody under the age of 30 I know who's a conservative treats the neoconservative

00:43:16.800 idea with anything but derision and scorn, something like that.

00:43:19.380 And it was just like, I'm confident where things are heading, but we don't have time.

00:43:23.640 Because if China... 0.92

00:43:24.420 And I'm not a fanatic on China, right?

00:43:26.800 Like, my view on China is...

00:43:28.480 And I think the Chinese understand this.

00:43:30.760 My view is, we need to be strong, but we also need...

00:43:34.020 Like in the Cold War, there's like a line.

00:43:36.060 And there's, we don't cross it.

00:43:37.200 And we need to be able to decouple the thing, you know, re-industrialize things.

00:43:41.400 Lighthizer and Navarro and so on are talking about, which is bring back industry, have more

00:43:45.840 autonomy.

00:43:46.580 But at the same time, you know, there's a line, but we're not going to go in regime change.

00:43:50.540 There are people who served in the first Trump administration who are talking about regime

00:43:54.040 change in China, who are talking about primacy over China, like dominating China.

00:43:57.760 Like, that is so dangerous.

00:43:59.820 And often they're the same people who are supporting, you know, total support of Ukraine, which

00:44:04.720 is like, makes zero sense.

00:44:05.960 Like, zero sense.

00:44:07.220 Right?

00:44:07.620 So my view is, you got to do the things you're talking about.

00:44:11.200 But you've also got to say, we got to...

00:44:13.420 And, you know, Senator Vance has made...

00:44:14.480 Vice President-elect Vance has made these points very well.

00:44:17.200 Re-industrialization is critical, but it's going to take some time.

00:44:19.120 In the meantime, given that the Biden team has used up so much of our weaponry and so

00:44:22.960 forth, we got to husband what we have.

00:44:24.960 And again, to me, that is with the purpose of not getting into wars.

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00:47:20.500 How could four stars,

00:47:29.260 how could the leadership of the Pentagon support this?

00:47:32.720 So my, you know, it's interesting.

00:47:34.080 I think, again, maybe I'm too optimistic,

00:47:36.840 but like, you know, I deal with, you know,

00:47:38.120 I dealt with a lot of four stars when I was there.

00:47:40.680 When you worked at the Pentagon.

00:47:41.800 When I worked at the Pentagon,

00:47:42.480 because the thing about my job,

00:47:43.500 I was like a sort of,

00:47:44.400 my formal title was a little bit kind of middle, upper middle tier,

00:47:47.440 but basically I was running the strategy.

00:47:49.200 So I had a lot of exposure.

00:47:50.320 I was kind of operating above my,

00:47:52.020 the sort of normal level.

00:47:53.560 So I had, I got a lot of experience.

00:47:55.260 And I've stayed in touch with these people.

00:47:56.260 I watch, I watch them.

00:47:57.680 Here's the thing.

00:47:58.220 And, you know, there's a good,

00:47:59.220 Kissinger, I don't think was that great of a statesman,

00:48:00.780 but I think he was a brilliant writer and sort of observer.

00:48:04.020 He said something like,

00:48:05.080 big strategic shifts don't take place just by acts of virtuosity.

00:48:08.420 They reflect underlying trends.

00:48:10.340 And I think you talk to people in the military,

00:48:13.400 and I keep in touch with a lot of them.

00:48:14.460 They know,

00:48:14.920 what I'm saying is like common sense for military people.

00:48:17.200 They know our readiness is down.

00:48:18.400 They know our defense industrial base is in trouble.

00:48:20.280 They know the Chinese are moving like gangbusters. 1.00

00:48:22.300 They know the Russians aren't a joke.

00:48:23.800 They know we can't afford to get into another big Middle Eastern war.

00:48:26.460 So if you show at the top level,

00:48:28.640 clarity and courage as president Trump has in charting the direction,

00:48:32.440 and he has people under him who are genuinely trying to put that into place.

00:48:35.400 I think if you build it,

00:48:36.380 they will come.

00:48:37.460 And here's the other thing,

00:48:38.220 bear in mind that since 2008,

00:48:40.840 the Democrats have been in control almost the whole time.

00:48:42.980 And under,

00:48:43.940 before that,

00:48:44.420 it was the Iraq war group.

00:48:46.020 So a lot of the people who've made it to the top of a very flat pyramid,

00:48:49.320 they know,

00:48:49.720 they know how to like,

00:48:50.620 here's the thing about the military.

00:48:51.960 And you look at people like John Kelly being out there,

00:48:54.240 you know, 0.79

00:48:54.660 moralizing and calling president Trump a fascist, 0.92

00:48:56.600 which is like absurd and appropriate and terrible on its face. 0.63

00:48:59.280 But it's also like the military,

00:49:01.000 we should respect military service.

00:49:03.400 I certainly do,

00:49:04.500 especially,

00:49:05.020 you know,

00:49:05.060 people in combat and so forth.

00:49:06.360 But you know,

00:49:06.880 the military,

00:49:07.580 there's careerism,

00:49:08.580 there's promotion,

00:49:09.200 people looking after their own interests,

00:49:11.080 et cetera.

00:49:11.640 The people at the top of the pyramid often are people who have satisfied the criteria for promotion and selection.

00:49:17.660 That's fine.

00:49:18.680 You know,

00:49:18.900 people respond to incentives,

00:49:20.160 but it's the,

00:49:20.640 it is,

00:49:21.260 it is the most ruthless selection process.

00:49:24.080 And bear in mind,

00:49:24.840 talk about the Republic,

00:49:25.960 the army,

00:49:26.560 the air,

00:49:26.920 the Navy,

00:49:27.620 and the Marine Corps predate the constitution.

00:49:30.060 So these are very deeply embedded institutions.

00:49:31.980 People live their entire adult lives in them if they get to be a four star.

00:49:34.920 So you just got like,

00:49:36.360 again,

00:49:36.580 going to like a new left thing,

00:49:38.180 you look at it sociologically,

00:49:39.200 you're like,

00:49:39.800 this is going to have some pathologies.

00:49:41.420 Obviously it's a really important institution,

00:49:43.620 but you got to like,

00:49:44.700 but I think at the end of the day,

00:49:46.380 this is going to have some pathologies.

00:49:48.520 Nicely put.

00:49:49.040 Nicely put.

00:49:49.720 There,

00:49:50.020 there are people in there who want to do the right thing,

00:49:52.600 you know,

00:49:53.100 or,

00:49:53.380 or,

00:49:53.660 or they can be motivated to do the right thing.

00:49:55.280 That's fantastic people in the military.

00:49:57.640 And if they're rewarded for it,

00:49:59.660 they will go,

00:50:00.360 they will get,

00:50:00.760 because a lot of the guys who would have wanted to do that,

00:50:02.400 they cash out as a colonel or a Navy captain or a one star,

00:50:05.620 you know,

00:50:05.960 but if we,

00:50:06.760 if we,

00:50:07.140 if we put the,

00:50:07.940 the,

00:50:08.620 you know,

00:50:09.720 president Trump and his team,

00:50:10.840 I should say,

00:50:11.360 they,

00:50:11.540 they put the right incentives.

00:50:12.520 I think,

00:50:12.960 I think,

00:50:13.420 I think it'll get better.

00:50:14.060 I must say it's just having spent my life in DC and just running into them a lot

00:50:17.280 or living near them.

00:50:18.280 It was always so noticeable.

00:50:19.700 I met so many bright energetic wise,

00:50:24.040 I would say colonels.

00:50:26.240 But far,

00:50:27.000 you know,

00:50:27.620 I can think of one Marine,

00:50:28.900 two star.

00:50:29.600 I knew Marine general who I thought was so impressive.

00:50:32.720 I'll even say his name,

00:50:33.860 Vinnie colonies,

00:50:34.780 a wonderful man,

00:50:36.300 but,

00:50:37.040 you know,

00:50:37.300 didn't meet a lot of other flag officers that I thought were anything other than politicians.

00:50:43.180 I think,

00:50:43.720 I think,

00:50:44.160 I'm sure they exist.

00:50:45.220 I mean,

00:50:45.380 I think,

00:50:45.760 I think real,

00:50:46.840 I'll put it this way.

00:50:48.040 Most of the real,

00:50:49.980 there,

00:50:50.140 there's some brilliant defense guys.

00:50:51.600 I'll mention a Democrat.

00:50:53.020 I have a lot of respect for Bob work who served in the Pentagon is a great guy.

00:50:55.940 He was a Marine colonel retired.

00:50:58.340 Andrew Krepinevich,

00:50:59.380 who was another brilliant guy,

00:51:00.800 an army guy,

00:51:01.820 retired colonel.

00:51:03.160 Often the guys who are really the highest horsepower,

00:51:06.660 real strategic thinkers,

00:51:07.900 they cash out at that level

00:51:09.020 because that's what the selection is for.

00:51:11.480 It's not to say that the other people aren't,

00:51:12.920 aren't smart,

00:51:13.520 but like the,

00:51:14.100 the people that,

00:51:14.940 you know,

00:51:15.560 there's,

00:51:15.760 it's so noticeable.

00:51:16.900 And there's a mismatch between how people think like,

00:51:19.880 oh,

00:51:20.980 you know,

00:51:21.540 he has four stars.

00:51:22.780 Ergo,

00:51:23.120 he's like a strategic genius.

00:51:24.440 No,

00:51:24.780 no,

00:51:24.860 that's not how the selection process works.

00:51:26.920 You know what I mean?

00:51:27.400 Like they,

00:51:27.840 they're promoted for like running a large,

00:51:30.100 a core,

00:51:31.100 an army core,

00:51:32.120 you know,

00:51:32.380 or a fleet.

00:51:33.180 That's different than,

00:51:34.160 that's fine,

00:51:34.800 but let's,

00:51:35.140 let's understand what we're dealing with.

00:51:36.640 But shouldn't the process,

00:51:37.760 isn't the point of promotion to,

00:51:40.700 you know,

00:51:41.460 winnow out the,

00:51:42.120 the less capable and elevate.

00:51:43.760 Well,

00:51:43.880 it depends on what you're selecting for.

00:51:45.520 Well,

00:51:45.720 I guess that's it.

00:51:46.560 But I think,

00:51:47.040 hey,

00:51:47.420 how about selecting for winning?

00:51:51.280 You know?

00:51:52.200 Yeah.

00:51:52.280 Hey,

00:51:52.760 like,

00:51:53.100 I think that as opposed to like,

00:51:54.960 you know,

00:51:55.260 kind of like playing the game,

00:51:57.400 and saying the right things.

00:51:59.420 And,

00:51:59.900 you know,

00:51:59.980 we don't know.

00:52:00.360 That's the other thing about like,

00:52:01.500 you know,

00:52:01.640 I love the meme of Mark Milley and Eisenhower and their chests.

00:52:06.780 Like,

00:52:06.880 I just,

00:52:07.220 it's so perfect.

00:52:07.900 That's incredible.

00:52:08.460 You know,

00:52:08.800 it's just,

00:52:09.280 it's just,

00:52:10.140 you could speak for 10 hours and not.

00:52:11.660 Well,

00:52:11.680 when I watched Milley in that famous,

00:52:13.880 now famous hearing talking about weight rage,

00:52:16.240 I thought,

00:52:16.760 this is a guy who doesn't have any idea what he's talking about.

00:52:19.960 He's saying words he thinks he's supposed to say.

00:52:23.360 Doesn't seem terribly bright.

00:52:24.720 He seems weak above all.

00:52:26.100 He seems like the product of a bureaucracy to me,

00:52:28.160 which probably shouldn't surprise me.

00:52:29.640 And I think there's,

00:52:31.140 and again,

00:52:31.520 to this pathology point,

00:52:32.900 you know,

00:52:35.480 like if you read McMaster's memoirs,

00:52:37.080 for instance,

00:52:37.860 he's almost kind of lecturing the American people about their need to like double defense spending and stay in Afghanistan until the second coming. 0.52

00:52:44.500 And it's like,

00:52:45.420 it's that touch grass kind of thing where like you don't have political accountability,

00:52:49.160 like direct.

00:52:49.780 I mean,

00:52:49.960 for instance,

00:52:50.280 they not only they're not elected,

00:52:51.760 but people who are civilian appointees go through political vetting.

00:52:54.700 So they have a kind of indirect political accountability,

00:52:57.440 you know,

00:52:57.860 where the elect,

00:52:58.660 you have to demonstrate loyalty and,

00:53:00.280 you know,

00:53:00.620 you're on,

00:53:01.100 on the team,

00:53:02.060 et cetera.

00:53:02.260 You have to be aware of that.

00:53:03.560 The military,

00:53:04.140 they,

00:53:04.340 they really don't have that ostensibly.

00:53:06.500 Although I wonder about the left and kind of through the back door,

00:53:09.600 import,

00:53:09.920 importing some of those things.

00:53:11.040 But so,

00:53:11.700 so you get to this point where you think that you're like,

00:53:14.200 well,

00:53:14.320 I'm speaking in front of a large group of people because I'm a four-star general.

00:53:17.140 And it's like,

00:53:18.100 actually,

00:53:18.660 you really have no standing to talk about that issue at all,

00:53:22.320 you know,

00:53:22.540 because that's a,

00:53:23.100 that's a,

00:53:23.460 that's a domestic issue that you like don't have any political finger feel for.

00:53:27.300 And you're supposed to be much more careful and modest about that.

00:53:30.800 But they have no moral authority,

00:53:31.920 right to speak about anything like that because they have no authority apart from that granted

00:53:37.220 them by the president.

00:53:38.100 Yeah,

00:53:38.460 exactly.

00:53:39.080 Because we have civilian control and the president's authority comes from voters.

00:53:42.040 Right.

00:53:42.320 And by the way,

00:53:42.900 and if somebody has authority and it's like the Audie Murphy guy,

00:53:45.840 the guy,

00:53:46.040 and the guys that you talking to who are like out there in the field,

00:53:48.760 Fallujah or whatever,

00:53:49.800 they have authority,

00:53:51.340 you know,

00:53:51.520 but I'm always like,

00:53:52.080 you know,

00:53:52.280 another guy,

00:53:53.120 Frank McKenzie,

00:53:53.660 who's out there a lot,

00:53:54.860 who's constantly hammering,

00:53:56.180 you know,

00:53:56.340 these points.

00:53:56.960 And I was like,

00:53:57.220 well,

00:53:57.320 he was the CENTCOM commander when the Afghanistan withdrawal happened and he didn't put his stars

00:54:02.820 on the,

00:54:03.340 you know,

00:54:03.540 if he thought there was a better way,

00:54:04.740 why didn't he put his stars on the table?

00:54:06.620 So like,

00:54:07.020 why are,

00:54:07.540 you know,

00:54:07.740 like,

00:54:08.100 okay.

00:54:08.360 I mean,

00:54:08.560 I,

00:54:08.700 I personally support the Afghanistan withdrawal. 0.89

00:54:11.000 I believe President Trump still does,

00:54:12.460 but it said that it's done terribly.

00:54:14.840 And that,

00:54:15.080 which I think is clear,

00:54:15.860 but it's like,

00:54:17.340 you know,

00:54:18.560 you could,

00:54:18.960 you could say Dwight Eisenhower had a kind of moral authority,

00:54:20.880 but the other thing about Dwight Eisenhower,

00:54:22.140 I mean,

00:54:22.240 he was actually a smart guy,

00:54:23.480 but if you look at like his Guildhall speech,

00:54:25.660 I don't know if you remember this,

00:54:26.560 but like the,

00:54:28.680 he,

00:54:28.980 unlike MacArthur,

00:54:29.740 for instance,

00:54:30.160 he had a real feel for the American people,

00:54:33.040 civilian army,

00:54:34.300 you know,

00:54:34.920 like they were,

00:54:36.560 they were offering the,

00:54:38.020 the,

00:54:38.960 the award of the city of London.

00:54:40.140 He said,

00:54:40.500 I can't accept this.

00:54:41.380 I accept this only on behalf of the great human forces.

00:54:44.100 He said,

00:54:44.920 you know,

00:54:45.380 which is like,

00:54:46.060 yeah,

00:54:46.240 it's like regular guys,

00:54:48.200 you know?

00:54:48.600 And that's,

00:54:49.120 to me,

00:54:49.640 that's,

00:54:49.880 I try to have that mindset about like,

00:54:51.880 I don't want people to get torn limb from limb in a war with China that we could avoid. 0.82

00:54:56.560 Let alone another,

00:54:57.360 like,

00:54:57.580 or, 0.79

00:54:57.820 or eviscerate vaporized in a nuclear explosion with Russia. 0.51

00:55:02.560 Of course,

00:55:02.960 that means you don't just like do whatever they want,

00:55:05.240 duh,

00:55:05.640 but you've got to like calibrate that balance.

00:55:08.520 Always thinking about,

00:55:09.700 as President Trump has said,

00:55:11.280 going back to like,

00:55:11.920 what's in the concrete interest of the American people?

00:55:17.100 You've referred repeatedly to a potential war with China.

00:55:20.580 I assume that would be over Taiwan.

00:55:22.960 I think,

00:55:23.740 yes,

00:55:23.960 I think Taiwan would be the focal point,

00:55:25.860 but what I think is very scary about the Chinese, 1.00

00:55:28.140 and I don't think the Chinese are behaving in it, 1.00

00:55:30.540 frankly,

00:55:30.900 if you apply the way,

00:55:32.420 like you were in Washington from the period after the collapse of the Soviet Union,

00:55:35.320 right?

00:55:35.440 Or a little bit after,

00:55:36.080 right?

00:55:36.540 But like,

00:55:36.960 no,

00:55:37.100 I was there,

00:55:37.640 I was there that day.

00:55:38.460 You were there,

00:55:38.780 did?

00:55:38.940 Okay.

00:55:39.280 Oh,

00:55:39.420 right,

00:55:39.720 exactly.

00:55:40.200 I know you've talked about this.

00:55:42.180 If you apply the same kind of behavior that we exhibited over the 25,

00:55:48.020 say 20 years after that,

00:55:50.200 and you apply that model to a China that is not constrained,

00:55:53.860 that's very scary.

00:55:55.360 Right?

00:55:55.560 Like,

00:55:55.740 so we just have to apply the same model to them.

00:55:58.980 Because again,

00:55:59.740 to me,

00:56:00.060 it's like a conservative,

00:56:00.880 and I don't think-

00:56:01.540 So I know exactly what you're saying,

00:56:04.260 but maybe that's too subtle.

00:56:06.840 Yeah,

00:56:07.040 we've explained precisely what you're saying.

00:56:08.900 I mean,

00:56:08.920 we went from being,

00:56:10.240 in the 1980s,

00:56:11.340 you had the Weinberger Doctrine under President Reagan,

00:56:13.220 and Reagan almost getting impeached

00:56:15.040 because he was trying to help just a proxy group with the Contras,

00:56:18.980 because people were so afraid of getting in another Vietnam.

00:56:22.200 And the biggest thing that he would do

00:56:24.060 would have meetings with the Soviet premier on nuclear weapons,

00:56:27.300 because people were like,

00:56:28.640 this could happen,

00:56:30.060 and I really don't want it to happen.

00:56:31.820 Right?

00:56:33.080 Fast forward 15 years,

00:56:34.760 and we're invading Iraq,

00:56:35.920 and as you recall,

00:56:36.820 the people who were biggest fans of invading Iraq,

00:56:39.560 the plan was also to go after probably Syria and Iran,

00:56:42.840 and so forth,

00:56:43.780 informally or not.

00:56:44.720 I worked for those people at the time.

00:56:46.460 Okay, so you know.

00:56:47.040 So, I mean,

00:56:47.640 that was not,

00:56:48.200 that was just the starting point.

00:56:49.360 Oh, I'm aware.

00:56:50.620 So,

00:56:51.260 and the way-

00:56:51.680 That was the new American century. 0.78

00:56:53.140 The way I interpret that

00:56:54.580 is you're going to have people like that,

00:56:56.480 because we're human beings,

00:56:58.020 and that's how we socialize,

00:56:59.240 or whatever.

00:57:00.060 And if there's no constraint,

00:57:01.160 no,

00:57:01.620 you would have been like sent to the loony bin in 1982.

00:57:04.120 If you're like,

00:57:04.360 oh,

00:57:04.440 let's invade Iraq. 0.98

00:57:06.020 2003,

00:57:06.580 if you said we shouldn't invade Iraq,

00:57:08.100 you were like,

00:57:08.680 even if you were Brent Scowcroft,

00:57:09.880 you were castigated.

00:57:10.800 Oh,

00:57:11.220 right?

00:57:11.920 So,

00:57:12.160 and never rehabilitated,

00:57:14.140 by the way.

00:57:14.800 Interesting.

00:57:15.240 Well,

00:57:15.480 I have,

00:57:15.940 I mean,

00:57:16.120 I don't agree with him on everything,

00:57:17.160 but I have,

00:57:17.820 I mean,

00:57:17.960 that sort of mindset.

00:57:19.220 I agree,

00:57:19.820 but I'm just saying like-

00:57:20.540 No,

00:57:20.620 exactly,

00:57:21.020 yeah.

00:57:21.300 It wasn't like,

00:57:22.880 you know,

00:57:23.260 Brent Scowcroft got rich or-

00:57:26.020 Yeah.

00:57:26.400 More respect.

00:57:27.120 I mean,

00:57:27.580 he said those things,

00:57:28.900 you know,

00:57:29.400 to his own detriment.

00:57:30.900 Yeah,

00:57:31.320 and I,

00:57:31.780 just on the China thing,

00:57:32.900 what I would say is,

00:57:34.140 they care a lot about Taiwan,

00:57:35.420 but I think it's very clear,

00:57:36.720 they're building a military to go beyond Taiwan.

00:57:38.780 They're building a basing architecture to go well beyond Taiwan.

00:57:41.280 I think that's,

00:57:41.880 in a sense,

00:57:42.500 almost indisputable.

00:57:43.900 And I think they have interests to go beyond Taiwan.

00:57:47.420 This is what worries me,

00:57:48.300 is I actually fear,

00:57:50.100 ironically,

00:57:50.780 that China is living out the Leninist theory of imperialism,

00:57:54.060 which is they need captive export markets for their overproduction.

00:57:59.440 And of course,

00:58:00.180 they need natural resources,

00:58:01.100 and other things to import.

00:58:02.480 And so they have a rational incentive to what the Japanese created, 0.99

00:58:05.520 the greater East Asia co-prosperity sphere.

00:58:07.440 Every empire,

00:58:08.420 formal or informal,

00:58:09.580 is,

00:58:10.260 not everyone,

00:58:10.960 but like a lot of them start out as basically commercial zones.

00:58:13.460 Of course.

00:58:13.960 And that's what I worry about.

00:58:14.960 And again,

00:58:15.620 the good news is,

00:58:16.660 I think we can negotiate with China about that.

00:58:18.880 That's why I think President Trump's,

00:58:21.040 against a lot of criticism,

00:58:22.180 his willingness to be open to negotiating a deal with President Xi is good.

00:58:28.000 Because we don't have an implacable,

00:58:31.120 hostility or rivalry.

00:58:32.460 We don't have to change. 0.77

00:58:33.960 I hate communism.

00:58:35.220 But like,

00:58:36.260 that's up to them.

00:58:37.720 And we,

00:58:38.080 the last thing I want is Americans dying, 1.00

00:58:39.960 trying to impose our form of government on them.

00:58:42.220 Hopefully,

00:58:42.620 that's pretty,

00:58:43.460 you know,

00:58:43.940 uncontroversial.

00:58:44.780 But I think,

00:58:45.520 I think if we just,

00:58:46.440 you know,

00:58:47.200 you know,

00:58:47.440 Taiwan's a tough issue,

00:58:48.280 because the point I've been making,

00:58:49.440 and I've gotten some flack from,

00:58:51.200 again,

00:58:51.580 good quarters from the Wall Street Journal,

00:58:53.100 last couple months,

00:58:54.700 is like,

00:58:55.380 I've been saying we should focus on defending Taiwan, 0.96

00:58:57.240 and they need to step up.

00:58:58.240 They haven't done it,

00:58:58.960 and we haven't prioritized it.

00:58:59.940 So I think Taiwan is on the knife's edge right now.

00:59:02.480 Now,

00:59:02.680 I think we want to avoid a war over that if we possibly can.

00:59:04.880 And President Trump has said,

00:59:06.660 a war,

00:59:07.060 an attack on Taiwan isn't going to happen under my watch.

00:59:09.120 So I think it is absolutely incumbent upon whoever is working for him

00:59:13.340 to make sure that doesn't happen,

00:59:14.860 combining a strong shield with a rational,

00:59:18.840 defensive policy and kind of political message to China that convinces them

00:59:23.240 that,

00:59:23.580 look,

00:59:23.660 you're better off with peace.

00:59:27.820 The Wall Street Journal attacked you?

00:59:29.280 Yeah,

00:59:29.560 so they,

00:59:29.880 How long will the Wall Street Journal kind of be considered the preeminent place

00:59:34.840 where,

00:59:35.260 quote,

00:59:35.360 conservative intellectuals explain their views?

00:59:38.420 I think they're in,

00:59:39.140 I think they're actually in trouble,

00:59:40.340 honestly.

00:59:40.780 I,

00:59:41.000 you know,

00:59:41.660 I read them,

00:59:42.300 but they are so far out of whack.

00:59:44.900 I mean,

00:59:45.140 so on my,

00:59:45.820 on the national security foreign policy issues,

00:59:47.500 they are total premises.

00:59:49.500 They,

00:59:50.100 at this,

00:59:50.360 in the same breath,

00:59:51.260 often they'll say our military is in terrible shape,

00:59:53.240 but we need to have aggressive policies in like four different theaters. 0.75

00:59:56.100 It makes no sense.

00:59:56.720 It's incoherent,

00:59:57.720 right?

00:59:58.380 On,

00:59:58.860 you know,

00:59:59.100 they're,

00:59:59.380 they're way out of step on the conservative Republican views on like trade,

01:00:03.100 where like Lighthizer and Navarro and the president are.

01:00:05.980 They,

01:00:06.400 they can't stand,

01:00:07.260 you know,

01:00:07.540 they've been repeatedly criticized people like you,

01:00:10.080 like Vice President Vance.

01:00:11.480 So I feel like I'm honored to be in this company.

01:00:13.980 So it's sort of like,

01:00:15.320 you know,

01:00:15.560 obviously they reflect a certain part of the,

01:00:18.640 you know,

01:00:19.440 American population,

01:00:20.220 which is sort of,

01:00:20.940 you know,

01:00:21.180 wealthier professionals who are probably more socially liberal,

01:00:24.260 the Acela corridor,

01:00:25.200 New York,

01:00:25.660 et cetera.

01:00:25.940 But I think a lot of people read them because they matter.

01:00:29.160 Right.

01:00:29.280 But at some point you get so far out of whack that you actually become a

01:00:31.600 liability,

01:00:31.980 you know,

01:00:32.680 and they were big backers of Nikki Haley and so forth.

01:00:35.560 So,

01:00:36.060 you know,

01:00:36.280 I think we need,

01:00:36.980 but then with the rise of new media,

01:00:38.740 I mean,

01:00:39.180 you're,

01:00:39.540 you've been a pioneer in this,

01:00:40.900 but others,

01:00:41.500 you know,

01:00:42.120 and Elon and what he's done with X and you know,

01:00:46.840 and David Sachs and these kinds of people,

01:00:48.280 I think there's hope that like,

01:00:49.940 not only does it not going to matter as much,

01:00:51.640 but it may become less and less relevant.

01:00:53.680 It seems like the Drudge report to me,

01:00:56.260 you know,

01:00:56.620 you have in your mind that this,

01:00:58.420 no,

01:00:58.780 I mean,

01:00:59.220 Drudge went from,

01:01:00.520 well,

01:01:00.660 Drudge was of course sold to left wingers.

01:01:03.220 They've never admitted that,

01:01:04.220 but I believe that's true.

01:01:06.100 But the Wall Street Journal in some sense has been also,

01:01:08.700 I mean,

01:01:08.960 they don't,

01:01:09.300 I don't know people who imagine the Wall Street Journal is conservative or

01:01:14.100 sort of like haven't been paying attention.

01:01:15.860 It's like the socially liberal fiscal conservative.

01:01:17.860 Yeah.

01:01:18.300 And they were like mocking President Trump in the interview. 0.68

01:01:20.520 I thought that was pretty lame and kind of gross. 0.89

01:01:22.560 It's a really dishonest newspaper and I'm rooting for its demise. 0.92

01:01:25.960 I just want to say that.

01:01:27.680 I mean that.

01:01:28.520 I hope it could get reformed,

01:01:29.800 but you know,

01:01:30.420 you're right.

01:01:31.400 No,

01:01:31.720 you're totally right.

01:01:32.300 We've seen enough institutions destroyed.

01:01:34.280 I just, 0.99

01:01:35.140 I do think it's really a garbage newspaper and, 0.96

01:01:38.040 and I wish more people realized that I can't control myself. 0.98

01:01:43.220 All right.

01:01:43.620 Out of control.

01:01:45.100 So when do you think it'll be clear,

01:01:49.380 like who's administering Trump's foreign policy?

01:01:53.600 I mean,

01:01:54.240 I just,

01:01:54.840 I honestly don't know.

01:01:55.840 I mean,

01:01:56.080 it's up obviously up to him.

01:01:57.340 Um,

01:01:58.520 but you know,

01:02:00.140 what,

01:02:00.340 what I would say is I hope he makes,

01:02:03.400 you know,

01:02:03.820 picks people who will implement the vision that,

01:02:05.880 that he ran on and that,

01:02:07.200 you know,

01:02:07.500 you,

01:02:08.040 uh,

01:02:08.360 and others have supported him so ably about,

01:02:11.060 I,

01:02:11.120 I,

01:02:11.380 as just as sincerely as an American.

01:02:12.820 I mean,

01:02:13.240 even if I'm not part of it or I'm dog catcher or whatever,

01:02:15.460 I mean that.

01:02:16.620 I think if honestly,

01:02:18.600 if,

01:02:19.520 if the primacist types who could get us into multiple wars,

01:02:23.140 get in there,

01:02:23.740 you're going to have to get to a more realistic foreign policy.

01:02:27.760 Eventually.

01:02:27.960 Well, 0.78

01:02:28.140 they'll destroy Trump.

01:02:29.340 Just to be clear,

01:02:30.620 people like Pompeo,

01:02:32.340 whom I know personally hate Trump.

01:02:34.600 They hate Trump.

01:02:36.060 And,

01:02:36.560 you know,

01:02:37.100 I don't care what he says or Lindsey Graham says,

01:02:39.540 Oh,

01:02:39.600 he's so great.

01:02:40.360 You know, 0.91

01:02:40.480 they suck up to him on Fox news, 0.95

01:02:41.920 but they hate him and they're working to undermine him. 0.96

01:02:44.180 And they did throughout his four years in office and the four years that

01:02:47.860 followed,

01:02:48.200 they undermined him because they hate him.

01:02:50.380 So I,

01:02:51.680 I just hope that there is a new generation in the Republican party of

01:02:57.440 people who maybe aren't even ideological,

01:02:59.360 but just put America.

01:03:00.080 Common sense.

01:03:00.740 Yeah.

01:03:01.200 America's interest is the whole point of our government.

01:03:04.480 I think there is a new generation,

01:03:06.620 people in their twenties and thirties.

01:03:07.900 I'm very hopeful.

01:03:08.840 I mean,

01:03:09.020 I talked to a lot of them.

01:03:10.200 What I'm worried about is I don't think there's any,

01:03:11.660 I mean you maybe like,

01:03:13.060 and,

01:03:13.120 and Trump is like an exception,

01:03:15.040 but you know,

01:03:16.080 you look at a guy like a vice president Vance.

01:03:17.800 He's only,

01:03:18.340 I think 40.

01:03:19.060 Yes.

01:03:19.400 You know,

01:03:19.680 a lot of the best senators,

01:03:21.420 you know,

01:03:21.720 are,

01:03:22.100 are much younger.

01:03:23.240 Yes.

01:03:23.480 You look at Eric Schmidt,

01:03:25.040 uh,

01:03:25.580 Eric Schmidt,

01:03:25.940 Jim,

01:03:26.120 Jim,

01:03:26.560 Jim Banks,

01:03:27.360 you know,

01:03:27.540 younger guys like,

01:03:28.620 you know,

01:03:28.900 and the problem is people just naturally like,

01:03:31.640 well,

01:03:31.780 we need somebody to 65 or whatever.

01:03:33.100 And it's sort of like,

01:03:34.000 but I think it's even worse than,

01:03:35.320 than,

01:03:35.540 than what you're suggesting because like,

01:03:37.360 you know,

01:03:37.640 let's say we get in a big Middle Eastern war and you have people who are 1.00

01:03:41.400 talking about an independent Taiwan or regime change in China or regime

01:03:46.100 change in Russia.

01:03:46.920 And we get bogged down.

01:03:48.560 Why wouldn't the Chinese attack? 1.00

01:03:49.860 Like just,

01:03:50.340 I mean,

01:03:50.500 thinking about think apply how we behave the project for new American

01:03:53.820 century style thinking,

01:03:55.220 and just think that those people will be in the ascendancy in Beijing.

01:03:58.460 The way I think about it,

01:03:59.420 Tucker is like,

01:04:00.080 we're like a heavyweight boxer and China's another heavyweight boxer.

01:04:04.940 Russia's like a middleweight and maybe North Korea and Iran are like, 0.67

01:04:08.160 you know,

01:04:08.380 welterweights or featherweights or whatever.

01:04:10.400 Those guys can,

01:04:11.300 they can tear you out and China can call us to a match at any time, 0.62

01:04:15.440 at any time.

01:04:16.020 And if we're not ready,

01:04:17.000 that is like terrible,

01:04:19.200 you know?

01:04:20.140 And so at that point we would have to put a more realistic foreign policy,

01:04:24.680 but my view,

01:04:25.660 and this is,

01:04:26.180 I think a real point to the kind of people who read the wall street journal

01:04:29.280 op-ed page,

01:04:29.860 the point that I would make to them is if we go down this path of

01:04:35.220 aggressive policies in three or four different theaters of the world,

01:04:38.580 without the backing,

01:04:40.040 we will end up bloodied and bruised.

01:04:42.340 We will have catastrophic defeat. 0.98

01:04:44.320 Lots of Americans will be killed. 0.89

01:04:45.560 And the American people may very well say, 0.95

01:04:47.720 I'm done.

01:04:49.100 I'm done.

01:04:49.620 This is,

01:04:50.140 you know,

01:04:50.300 all the rules based international order.

01:04:51.600 This is what it led to forget about it.

01:04:54.400 And that,

01:04:55.080 if you want to save it,

01:04:56.420 if you want to save something like,

01:04:57.740 I think,

01:04:57.980 I think mine is like the,

01:04:59.060 the reform rather than the radical upheaval.

01:05:02.680 Mine is like,

01:05:03.640 Hey,

01:05:04.000 no,

01:05:04.320 I believe in the post-war.

01:05:06.060 I just don't believe in the post-1989 absurd hubris going around.

01:05:10.340 The people,

01:05:11.160 yeah,

01:05:11.420 we can,

01:05:11.760 the cold war that,

01:05:12.520 and I keep going back to it,

01:05:13.260 but just like,

01:05:14.020 I just,

01:05:14.740 cause like,

01:05:15.080 you know,

01:05:15.340 Senator McConnell will talk about Eisenhower all the time.

01:05:17.220 And I'm like,

01:05:17.740 dude,

01:05:18.100 Eisenhower thought that if there were U.S. troops in Europe at the end of the 1950s,

01:05:21.700 it was a failure.

01:05:22.440 He's the one who came up with the uncle sucker line, 0.94

01:05:24.800 not president Trump. 0.69

01:05:25.820 So you want to talk about the cold war legacy.

01:05:27.420 We were pretty ruthless.

01:05:28.920 You know,

01:05:29.200 the Germans attacked us,

01:05:30.420 or excuse me,

01:05:30.800 the Japanese attacked us in 1941.

01:05:34.240 And we let the Soviets do the bulk of the fighting. 0.59

01:05:36.480 And we put Germany first. 0.90

01:05:38.000 Why?

01:05:38.320 Cause,

01:05:38.740 and I'm glad as a descendant of people who are in the European theater of operations,

01:05:42.480 I'm glad that the Soviets, 0.99

01:05:43.560 but George Schultz,

01:05:45.320 when he went and dealt with his counterpart,

01:05:47.220 he went,

01:05:47.600 he visited,

01:05:48.020 he wrote about this very movingly.

01:05:49.660 He went to the cemetery in Leningrad and he offered a somber salute.

01:05:53.760 And I had the honor to meet Schultz a couple of times.

01:05:56.000 And this was not a,

01:05:56.920 you know,

01:05:57.200 he's,

01:05:57.680 he had strong views and so forth,

01:05:59.100 but I think you can respect that,

01:06:02.460 you know,

01:06:02.800 and,

01:06:03.020 and understand that we can be hard nosed and look at your opponents and say,

01:06:06.740 we don't want a war.

01:06:09.000 We've told you before about Hallow.

01:06:11.280 It is a great app that I am proud to say I use,

01:06:15.140 my whole family uses.

01:06:16.180 It's for daily prayer and Christian meditation and it's transformative.

01:06:20.680 So with everything happening in the world right now,

01:06:23.060 it is essential to ground yourself.

01:06:26.340 This is not some quack cure.

01:06:29.640 This is the oldest and most reliable cure in history.

01:06:33.280 It's prayer.

01:06:34.580 Ground yourself in prayer and scripture every single day.

01:06:37.160 That is a prerequisite for staying sane and healthy and maybe for doing better eternally.

01:06:43.440 So if you're busy on the road,

01:06:44.760 headed to kids sports,

01:06:45.600 there's always time to pray and reflect alone or as a family,

01:06:49.080 but it's hard to be organized about it.

01:06:52.060 Building a foundation of prayer is going to be absolutely critical as we head into November,

01:06:55.980 praying that God's will is done in this country and that peace and healing come to us here in the United States and around the world.

01:07:03.220 Christianity obviously is attack, under attack everywhere.

01:07:07.580 That's not an accident.

01:07:09.040 Why is Christianity, the most peaceful of all religions, under attack globally?

01:07:13.080 Did you see the opening of the Paris Olympics?

01:07:15.020 There's a reason because the battle is not temporal.

01:07:18.320 It's taking place in the unseen world.

01:07:20.260 It's a spiritual battle, obviously.

01:07:23.760 So try Hallow.

01:07:24.500 Get three months completely free at Hallow.

01:07:26.820 That's Hallow.com slash Tucker.

01:07:29.860 If there's ever a time to get spiritually in tune and ground yourself in prayer, it's now.

01:07:35.260 Hallow will help personally and strongly and totally sincerely recommend it.

01:07:40.520 Hallow.com slash Tucker.

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01:09:06.420 What happened to all the Bush people?

01:09:16.880 You were here for that.

01:09:18.140 Yeah.

01:09:19.000 Not just the President Bush and his family are pretty clear for Kamala Harris, but all the people who staffed that administration,

01:09:25.420 do all of them still buy those ideas, those 20-year-old ideas, or have any come around to your position?

01:09:33.420 It's a great question because I know a lot of them.

01:09:36.380 It's like you.

01:09:36.820 I like a lot of them, you know.

01:09:38.220 Yeah, for sure.

01:09:38.640 And some of them know.

01:09:39.820 I admire some.

01:09:40.460 I don't admire others. 0.96

01:09:41.500 And people are going, you know, a lot of them put flags in the ground with the foolish and inappropriate Never Trump letters in 2016. 0.81

01:09:48.640 And they're kind of, so their hands are a bit tied.

01:09:50.620 So I don't know how they would behave in a vacuum.

01:09:52.800 I think you see sort of various stages of grief.

01:09:55.800 I mean, various people kind of adapting in different ways or not adapting.

01:10:00.180 Some people are kind of like unreconstructed.

01:10:02.980 Some are kind of like resigned to where things are going.

01:10:06.940 You know what's funny about the Bush—I mean, you remember this better than I do, but I remember, like, Bush ran on a more humble foreign policy.

01:10:13.620 I know.

01:10:14.200 You know?

01:10:14.620 I mean, actually, what Trump's saying is not that radically different from the kind of Bush vibe, which was against the crusading progressivism of Bill Clinton.

01:10:21.980 Now, he ended up totally abandoning that, unfortunately, to his eternal discredit.

01:10:27.380 And in a sense, he was a progressive.

01:10:29.680 He was armed progressivism.

01:10:31.180 Bill Kristol is let's fight the end of history, you know, basically.

01:10:35.160 Which is like, that's not in any way—and, I mean, conservative, I'm not like Angela dancing on the head of a pin.

01:10:41.200 It's not common sense, right?

01:10:43.600 But I think a lot of those people, it's probably—it's going to be hard to incorporate them.

01:10:49.980 You know, there's sort of two—and, you know, sociologically, again, it's—they're invested in the old model.

01:10:57.440 And so I think we're going to need—the trouble is that all the credentialing has been on that side.

01:11:03.740 And so—

01:11:04.340 All of it.

01:11:05.160 Almost all of it.

01:11:06.060 I mean, I'm—not to make anything about myself, but, like, I'm a rare—and I was—I was teetering on the—maybe passing over to the edge of respectability or whatever the mainstream is, you know, for years.

01:11:17.260 And, you know, I think—what I find, though, encouraging, Tucker, is I—and this is where—I mean—

01:11:23.480 Wait, can I say that?

01:11:24.620 You went to Groton and Harvard, right?

01:11:26.300 Yeah.

01:11:26.320 Yeah.

01:11:26.460 Okay.

01:11:26.880 Yeah.

01:11:27.080 So are you the only person in the world who went to Groton and Harvard who voted for Donald Trump?

01:11:33.920 You know, I don't think so.

01:11:34.900 Actually, my Groton and Harvard roommate was indicating—I think there are a few others.

01:11:37.820 I mean, I—you know, but—I mean, okay, so you—you got me.

01:11:40.560 I—you know, people say this sometimes, and I think they say it about you, too.

01:11:43.000 It's like, oh, you're from an elite background.

01:11:44.300 How can you not support the elite?

01:11:45.260 And I'm always like, the elite is supposed to work for the public interest.

01:11:48.780 And by the way, that was the model.

01:11:50.080 Teddy Roosevelt was behind the founding of Groton School, which I went there.

01:11:53.360 I have very fond memories.

01:11:54.360 A lot of people who are associated with that hate Donald Trump and everything.

01:11:57.240 I proudly support him.

01:11:59.320 But I think the whole point is to—you know, service is perfect freedom.

01:12:03.320 The idea is public service, is putting the interests of the public ahead.

01:12:07.220 And so I—to be honest, I find the current establishment, I look at Morning Joe or something,

01:12:11.680 and I'm like, this is not what America deserves.

01:12:14.260 Okay.

01:12:14.420 So I have the same perspective, and I would say more broad—the identical perspective.

01:12:17.920 And I would say that nobody reforms the system who doesn't understand the system.

01:12:24.340 Yeah.

01:12:24.680 You're always going to have a—

01:12:25.520 Teddy Roosevelt saved capitalism in the United States by restraining—

01:12:28.920 And he was hated by his peers.

01:12:30.520 By restraining the monopolies.

01:12:31.720 Exactly.

01:12:32.320 And the only reason he was able to do that was because he was pushing back against his own class.

01:12:36.360 Exactly.

01:12:36.660 He understood them.

01:12:37.800 Right.

01:12:38.220 Right.

01:12:38.720 So, no, I'm not attacking you for going to Groton and Harvard.

01:12:42.000 I'm rather saying, I think it's essential that you understand, J.D. Vance hated Trump,

01:12:49.280 went to Yale Law School, started going up to the Aspen Institute to speak in the summer,

01:12:53.360 found the people there so repulsive—

01:12:55.000 He's like, oh, he was totally right.

01:12:55.840 —that he has become their nightmare.

01:12:57.480 Exactly.

01:12:57.800 Because he knows who they are.

01:12:59.160 Right.

01:12:59.360 He had dinner with David Brooks many times.

01:13:01.200 Exactly.

01:13:01.780 So, anyway.

01:13:02.600 Totally.

01:13:03.140 Totally.

01:13:03.480 And I think, like—and I think, like, that's—you know, I love this clip of Maggie Goodlander

01:13:08.560 getting called out by this—

01:13:09.620 I know.

01:13:09.920 You know, we should—it should be challenged if you're—like, anybody should be subject

01:13:13.780 to challenge.

01:13:14.480 And that's what's so great about, like, X and podcasts—

01:13:17.120 Did Maggie Goodlander win?

01:13:18.340 I'm embarrassed.

01:13:19.040 I think so.

01:13:20.020 I'm not sure.

01:13:20.680 And I'm, like, not picking on her particularly, but, like, you know, there's a fair point.

01:13:23.820 But, I mean, my view is—and it's apropos because the other woman I think was in—I 0.97

01:13:27.560 think she's—her family's from China.

01:13:29.180 But, you know, even under Mao, I mean, the ultimate egalitarian system, there is an establishment.

01:13:34.560 There is an elite.

01:13:35.420 Well, of course.

01:13:36.060 And, of course, Xi Jinping is a product of that elite.

01:13:37.860 Dogs create hierarchies.

01:13:39.240 Of course.

01:13:39.360 You're always going to have a hierarchy.

01:13:40.840 So the question is not, do you have a ruling class?

01:13:42.760 You're getting a ruling class. 0.91

01:13:43.940 Is it good?

01:13:44.380 Is it—do you have a good ruling class?

01:13:46.120 Or do you have Jake Sullivan and Tony Blinken?

01:13:49.260 That's the best we got?

01:13:50.180 And here's the other thing, you know—

01:13:52.100 Oh, right.

01:13:52.600 And I don't want to cry too much of a river here, but, like, they are the establishment.

01:13:56.140 And they act in, like, a sociologically conservative way.

01:13:59.300 They're all going to leave office, and they're all going to get great jobs on Wall Street.

01:14:02.880 And they're all going to go to law firms and whatever.

01:14:04.620 And it's the people who are taking on the establishment and are taking the slings and

01:14:09.160 arrows, and hopefully metaphorically alone.

01:14:11.740 But to me, that's the point.

01:14:13.320 That's what you're supposed to do.

01:14:15.320 If you—you know, as the Bible says, to whom much is given of, whom much is expected.

01:14:18.760 I strongly agree with that.

01:14:20.600 And I think you're a model of that, honestly.

01:14:22.140 And I'm not just saying that.

01:14:23.020 Well, no, but I really believe in that. 1.00

01:14:26.260 And I'm just so offended by—I'm so offended by the mediocrity and selfishness and stupidity 1.00

01:14:31.840 of our ruling class that I just can't. 1.00

01:14:33.420 And I don't care if they kill me.

01:14:34.420 I will never stop feeling that way.

01:14:35.820 I know you don't.

01:14:35.940 And that's your—you're incredibly courageous, so.

01:14:38.240 Bridge Colby, I am rooting for you fervently.

01:14:41.220 I just wanted to make sure everyone knows who you are and what you think.

01:14:44.820 This process is taking place privately, as it has to, but I also think that people who

01:14:49.300 voted for Trump, because they want a calmer world, they don't want the United States or

01:14:55.060 him to be destroyed in wars, I think they should know what's going on.

01:14:58.900 So I hope this provides a little sunlight.

01:15:01.000 Thank you very much, my friend.

01:15:01.860 Bless you.

01:15:02.240 Thank you.

01:15:02.580 Thank you.

01:15:04.820 Thanks for listening to the Tucker Carlson Show.

01:15:06.740 If you enjoyed it, you can go to tuckercarlson.com to see everything that we have made.

01:15:11.340 The complete library.

01:15:13.540 Tuckercarlson.com.

01:15:14.820 I'll see you next week.

01:15:15.740 Bye-bye.

The Tucker Carlson Show - November 10, 2024

National Security Expert Elbridge Colby’s Advice to Trump on How to Avoid WWIII & Handle the CIA

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