The Tucker Carlson Show - May 16, 2025


Oren Cass: How Trump’s Tariffs Are Reversing the Foreign Policy That Doomed America’s Economy


Episode Stats

Length

1 hour and 36 minutes

Words per Minute

173.00662

Word Count

16,611

Sentence Count

408

Misogynist Sentences

1

Hate Speech Sentences

49


Summary

Orrin Kast is a conservative icon in the conservative movement. He is the author of The New Conservatives, a book that lays out his vision for the future of the country, and he is a regular contributor to conservative publications such as The Weekly Standard and National Review. In this episode, Orrin talks about his new book, The New Conservative, and what it means to be a conservative.


Transcript

00:00:00.000 In the next five years, we're clearly going to have some kind of economic reset.
00:00:03.940 People will get poorer.
00:00:05.240 What's your position on Trump's tariffs?
00:00:07.940 Are they working?
00:00:08.880 We should have them, but you should phase them in.
00:00:11.520 There are going to be obstructions.
00:00:13.480 If you are somebody who wants to do business in America, you need to start planning for that.
00:00:18.120 If we want our economy to work well, the way to make a lot of money in America is by making things in America.
00:00:23.640 That's the most interesting thing I've heard in a long time.
00:00:25.500 So you're saying that our economic model was not primarily an economic model, it was an instrument of foreign policy.
00:00:31.180 It was like the centerpiece of the global order, post-war global order.
00:00:35.000 It wasn't designed to help the United States as much as it was to preserve stability around the world.
00:00:40.280 If there's any group to whom we should be focusing resources on, it is families raising kids who are the ones who have been, I think, most squeezed by these economic changes.
00:00:51.180 We will have to pay for that.
00:00:52.460 And the people who will pay for it are the people who are earning a lot of money and don't have kids.
00:00:57.400 I love that you said that out loud.
00:00:59.340 Orrin Kast, thank you very much for coming.
00:01:23.000 So you've got a book called The New Conservatives, which tries to answer, I think, and we'll speak for you, the question, you know, what is conservatism?
00:01:32.020 What is the Trump movement?
00:01:34.500 Who's on what side?
00:01:35.760 And probably not a better, it's not really an abstract debate anymore.
00:01:40.780 It's like all of a sudden you find yourself, I find myself like on the same side as people with whom I don't think I have anything in common.
00:01:49.080 And so what's your definition of conservative?
00:01:54.460 That's that is the hardest question in conservatism, I think.
00:01:58.100 And, you know, for me, it comes down to a focus on what actually matters and sort of, you know, all of our policy debates are about the means.
00:02:05.820 What what should we do?
00:02:07.760 I think at the end of the day, what defines conservatism and what separates it from progressivism is is the definition of the ends.
00:02:14.800 What what do we actually think is the good life?
00:02:16.900 What are we trying to achieve?
00:02:18.240 And I think for conservatives, there's a a very deep recognition and belief that that the good life is about more than just the individual liberty and autonomy and consumption of stuff.
00:02:31.920 Obviously, we care about those things, too, but that it is much more balanced against a recognition that, you know, the well-being of families and the conditions in which we're raising the next generation and the strength of our communities, ultimately the strength of our nation, the ability to carry forward traditions, that that all of those things are equally probably more important to people's actual well-being.
00:02:57.260 And that as we think about what government is for, what public policy is for, those are the things we actually have to have in focus.
00:03:05.100 So paint the picture of what the end result of a well-organized society is.
00:03:11.220 Well, I think first and foremost, it is the family that at the end of the day, everything is oriented toward this question of how do we raise a next generation that is able to do what we have done, hopefully more than we have done to enjoy what we have enjoyed.
00:03:26.260 Hopefully more than we have enjoyed, and that that is a sort of fundamental obligation that we all have.
00:03:33.220 It's not a choice, a consumption choice, right?
00:03:35.780 Some people go to Greece, some people raise the next generation.
00:03:38.960 I mean, as a descriptive matter, it is true, but as a normative matter, as a question of should, that is what should happen and that is what needs to happen.
00:03:49.340 And so the question is, well, okay, what are the conditions in which that can and will happen?
00:03:54.900 We need to have the conditions where young people can see a future for themselves, forming families, being self-sufficient, supporting kids, being able to provide them a good environment.
00:04:06.240 They need to be in communities that have not just, you know, strong institutions and good schools, but also just a basic sense of a common culture and a culture that is going to be a healthy one for kids to grow up.
00:04:22.480 We obviously, therefore, need an economy that provides those kinds of jobs.
00:04:27.400 There need to be good jobs available to anybody who wants to work and is willing to work hard, regardless of what their particular aptitudes and interests are, regardless of where they live, right?
00:04:40.860 The idea that, well, we'll get more growth if everybody moves to a big city is highly corrosive to the idea that we will actually have a world of people raising strong families.
00:04:53.860 And then as you sort of keep zooming out, ultimately, you get out to the level of the nation and you recognize that, you know, at the end of the day, you do have to have a country.
00:05:05.080 A country is not just a market or, you know, an Olympics team.
00:05:11.100 It is actually something with an identity within which people owe obligations to each other.
00:05:16.440 And not everybody is raising kids, but if you're not, you have some obligation to the folks who are.
00:05:23.100 You have some obligation to those kids.
00:05:24.820 And as those kids grow up, they will, in turn, have obligations back to you.
00:05:29.460 And if you can't maintain that structure, and I think a lot of what you see in the modern West is struggles to maintain that structure, things start to fall apart.
00:05:42.920 It sounds like socialism, Warren.
00:05:45.380 No, I'm just kidding.
00:05:46.140 It sounds beautiful, actually.
00:05:47.620 And I should say for people who don't know, I'm not going to give your home address or anything, but you kind of live that.
00:05:52.100 Personally, you live in a smallish town, very far from a city.
00:05:57.440 You have a family.
00:05:58.580 You're involved in the town on, like, an official level.
00:06:04.040 You are living the life that you describe.
00:06:06.740 I try to.
00:06:07.500 And I think it's important at that level because I think that, you know, what I'm describing isn't sort of the ideal that I hope somebody goes and does.
00:06:17.160 I think it is, as I said, sort of that obligation that everybody should feel that they have.
00:06:24.560 And also that I would underscore that people can fulfill in lots of ways.
00:06:28.180 You don't have to live in the middle of nowhere.
00:06:29.760 You can do these things in a city, too.
00:06:32.220 You can do these things with all sorts of jobs.
00:06:34.220 You can do these things in a family where both parents are working, in a family where only one parent is working.
00:06:39.140 But I think a lot of what we need to aspire to, and, you know, the fancy term for it is pluralism, is the idea that having all of those different options is a good unto itself.
00:06:51.940 The fact that people can see that option set and find one that works for them is part of what leads to human flourishing, part of what makes it all work.
00:07:01.120 And one of the things that our markets have pushed against, the market just looks for the most efficient solution.
00:07:09.680 And that might be fine if you're just trying to sort of maximize your GDP growth.
00:07:14.960 But if the most efficient solution is to push everybody into any particular lane, especially the kinds of lanes we've been pushing people into, you don't actually get the outcomes you care about, which is the ability for people to live good lives.
00:07:29.600 It's interesting you use the word obligation, our obligation to others, to our children, to our neighbors, really sort of old-fashioned Protestant talk that I haven't heard in a long time from Protestants or anyone else.
00:07:44.200 It's not a worldview that, like, Ken Griffin, you know, talks about or probably believes in.
00:07:50.220 Where does that – well, why don't we talk about that anymore?
00:07:53.020 Where does that obligation come from, and how do you restore people's sense of it?
00:07:56.980 Well, I think it's common to a lot of religions, right?
00:08:01.320 You're right.
00:08:01.640 There's the Protestant – you know, you certainly find it in Catholic social teaching.
00:08:05.260 Yes.
00:08:05.680 I think you certainly find it in Judaism, which, you know, my reading of it is especially oriented around raising that next generation.
00:08:15.440 And so, you know, not by coincidence do the world's great moral traditions have this embedded.
00:08:23.260 Well, that kind of is the moral tradition, right?
00:08:25.000 Well, yes, that's right.
00:08:26.220 There's a common thread there.
00:08:29.520 You know, I think you don't see it as much today for two reasons.
00:08:33.920 One is that it is constraining, right?
00:08:36.480 The entire premise of obligations and duties as opposed to merely rights and privileges is that there are things that you should be doing even if they are not the thing that is the most fun at that moment in time, even if they are not the thing that you personally want to be doing at that moment in time.
00:08:54.700 Sometimes just because it is the right thing to do and it is, you know, something that is important to the well-being of those around you.
00:09:03.780 A lot of times I think what you find in these moral traditions is that also in the long run, it is good for you, too, that there is a recognition that humans are frail, flawed people.
00:09:17.300 And simply pursuing what the economist would say is optimizing your well-being at every moment in time leads people to choose all sorts of things that are not actually good for them at all.
00:09:28.920 And, you know, that's what I find fascinating about speaking about these kinds of concepts of obligation and duty in the good life is some people get very skeptical of this.
00:09:39.580 They're like, oh, yeah, but, you know, no one's going to choose that when they could just have all this other stuff instead.
00:09:45.340 But you step back and you look at all of the available data and you say, no, no, they will actually be happier if they choose all this stuff.
00:09:52.900 You know, people who are married are happier.
00:09:55.940 People who have kids are happier.
00:09:58.180 People later in life who have done these things live fuller lives overall.
00:10:02.580 They also tend to earn more money.
00:10:04.320 They have whatever it is you actually want to achieve in your life.
00:10:08.980 It is almost certainly the case that making these kinds of decisions will be good for you, too.
00:10:15.240 The problem is just that in the moment when you're 23, it's not necessarily a thing that you're going to choose.
00:10:21.580 That's right.
00:10:21.780 And in a sense, and this goes back to where you started with, you know, what is conservatism?
00:10:27.000 It's a recognition that for people to lead good lives and make good decisions, they need to be operating within this structure.
00:10:35.200 They rely on institutions, their own families, ideally an education system, ideally the broader culture to shape and form them and help them make these kinds of decisions that will benefit them, they themselves in the long run.
00:10:52.000 We're not just asking for fixed bayonet charges, you know, into machine guns.
00:10:58.020 We're talking about things that will be good for them, will be good for those around them, will be good for their own kids.
00:11:04.480 But that we know are not things that they're just automatically going to choose by themselves.
00:11:11.900 And so just, you know, this is the other thing that you just like, well, why aren't we doing this?
00:11:17.280 Part of it is people just don't like being constrained.
00:11:19.080 Part of it is we have adopted this sort of what I call market fundamentalism where economists and their way of thinking have somehow persuaded a lot of people that, no, no, no, just everybody choosing what they think is good for them at every moment with no constraints is actually the way to optimize welfare for themselves, for the nation, for the economy.
00:11:43.420 And that's just not true.
00:12:13.420 You see sort of dying in their condos in South Carolina, leaving nothing to their children or grandchildren.
00:12:20.760 It does seem like things change, those assumptions change with the baby boom.
00:12:24.960 I think that's right.
00:12:26.060 And I think part of the answer is the sort of more skeptical or cynical one that, you know, this generation has not been especially thoughtful and obligation oriented.
00:12:40.420 Man, you ought to join the State Department.
00:12:42.500 That level of diplomacy is awe-inspiring.
00:12:47.160 Many of my friends are boomers, let me say.
00:12:50.960 But I also think part of what we saw happen is that we went through – the boomers lived a life where everything did just seem to work.
00:13:01.100 Yes.
00:13:01.420 That, you know, if you look – and sorry, I always come back to the economic side of these arguments because I see them sort of infecting our culture.
00:13:10.540 You know, you had these folks like Milton Friedman as a classic example of someone who was sort of making this very public case that literally his best work is called Free to Choose, right?
00:13:20.900 That was the mantra.
00:13:21.900 That was the mantra.
00:13:22.240 And what Americans were experiencing in American society was that this just worked.
00:13:28.220 That because we weren't paying attention to and were instead taking for granted all of that institutional capital we had built up in the American culture, because we were taking for granted that we were the dominant industrial power, you know, far and away ahead of anybody else.
00:13:46.180 Because it felt like, oh, you don't have to worry about these things.
00:13:50.140 You can just leave people free to choose.
00:13:52.280 They will just make these kinds of decisions.
00:13:55.280 You know, investors will just invest in the best things.
00:13:58.320 We will get the best innovation.
00:13:59.680 We will create the good jobs.
00:14:01.560 This is just how things work.
00:14:02.820 The magic hand.
00:14:04.180 Well, this is – right.
00:14:05.560 And this is something I write about a lot, right?
00:14:06.860 Adam Smith, the father of capitalism, had this idea of the invisible hand, which if you go back and look at what he was actually talking about, what he was describing, like literally in the paragraph where he writes about the invisible hand, he has all these requirements.
00:14:21.020 Like if people prefer investing domestically to investing in foreign countries, if people focus on doing the things that will lead to the greatest outcome, you know, the greatest output and most jobs, then the economy will work.
00:14:36.800 And in this generation, just all that got erased.
00:14:39.860 It's actually interesting.
00:14:40.600 In the leading economics textbook, it literally got erased.
00:14:43.400 They just ellipsed it out and just left with the part that the invisible hand leads to this stuff.
00:14:49.320 And so it sounds like a magical force.
00:14:52.300 Well, yeah, I call it magical.
00:14:53.120 It's like the Holy Spirit.
00:14:54.060 Exactly.
00:14:54.740 And this is why I call it market fundamentalism because it sounds like a derogatory term.
00:15:01.240 Obviously, I'm using it somewhat derisively, but it's a descriptive term.
00:15:05.360 It is a fundamentalism just like a religious fundamentalism that misinterprets the original texts and ideas to create this very absolutist, easy-to-live-by framework.
00:15:19.320 Even though it's probably not actually true and probably isn't actually very good for people.
00:15:25.860 And that is the course that the U.S. set itself on and American culture set itself on in a period where things were working well, right?
00:15:36.060 You can get away with it for a while.
00:15:37.620 And then, especially as the Cold War ended, as we sort of moved into this new world, I would say just it went off the rails.
00:15:46.300 And we started making choices in our foreign policy and our economic policy that assumed a whole bunch of things that certainly weren't true anymore, even if they ever had been true.
00:15:57.280 And I think in both our culture and our economy, we're now sort of grappling with the consequences of it.
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00:16:26.360 It's not good at all.
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00:18:55.920 Tucker.
00:18:56.160 Yeah, I guess the good news is the consequences are now so obvious and so dire
00:19:01.920 that I don't think anybody really is in favor of continuing to do what we've been doing for the last 50 years.
00:19:08.940 Unfortunately, there are many people who still are.
00:19:12.700 Really?
00:19:13.620 Yes, among those for whom this has all worked, right?
00:19:17.160 Because there is still a class of people, certainly in the United States,
00:19:20.920 if you are highly educated, you know, living in certain regions.
00:19:26.320 Older.
00:19:27.400 Older if, you know, certainly if you are the beneficiary and have all the savings from the golden era.
00:19:33.980 But, you know, there are plenty of people in their 20s and 30s if they got, you know,
00:19:40.020 were in the right place, have the right education, get the right kind of job.
00:19:44.820 Um, they're doing very well and they have immersed themselves in a culture that says,
00:19:53.640 well, we are here because we deserve to be here, right?
00:19:57.680 In our wonderful meritocracy, it is we who are supposed to be the winners
00:20:02.980 and the ones who sort of make the decisions for everybody else.
00:20:06.600 And, uh, let's look at just some economic statistics.
00:20:11.660 Like, our TVs are bigger than ever.
00:20:14.020 We have more stuff than ever.
00:20:16.300 Um, and so, let's keep, let's keep the good times rolling.
00:20:21.560 That's, you know, I, I think there's a lot of people.
00:20:25.180 It's such a small percentage of the country, though.
00:20:27.480 Yes.
00:20:27.960 It's in that position.
00:20:29.560 So, that's what I find baffling.
00:20:31.280 It's like, I mean, of course, famously, life is unfair.
00:20:35.960 It's not exactly clear how real free will is.
00:20:39.180 I mean, there are, like, lots of deep questions that arise when you think about how wealth is allocated.
00:20:44.200 Luck plays a role or providence or whatever.
00:20:46.500 But it's still hard if you're in that percentage that's been benefiting
00:20:52.220 and continues to benefit from the current arrangement.
00:20:54.220 It's hard to understand how you don't look around and think to yourself,
00:20:57.360 this isn't working for, like, the overwhelming majority of people and that's bad.
00:21:02.080 Like, if that doesn't occur to you, what does it say about you?
00:21:06.200 It's a fair question.
00:21:09.020 I guess, you know, one reason I have maybe sympathies strong,
00:21:15.020 but a sense of it is I even look at, you know, my own trajectory going through a lot of these same institutions
00:21:23.500 and kinds of jobs, you know, I ended up working for Mitt Romney's presidential campaign.
00:21:28.920 After graduating Harvard.
00:21:29.960 Yes.
00:21:30.260 Well, actually, I was still in law school at Harvard, was in charge of domestic policy for the Romney campaign.
00:21:37.840 And we started, questions would come in, what are we going to do about the opioid epidemic?
00:21:44.280 And I'm embarrassed to say this.
00:21:47.080 I'm hopping on Google, like, what is an opioid?
00:21:51.340 Like, opium?
00:21:52.680 I mean, I literally had no idea.
00:21:54.980 And at that point, it had already been the deadliest drug epidemic in American, you know,
00:21:59.840 probably for going on a decade at that point.
00:22:03.060 And it was extremely easy to not even know it existed,
00:22:09.280 to have absolutely no contact with or familiarity with those kinds of challenges
00:22:15.420 happening in other parts of the country.
00:22:17.640 It was extremely easy if you had taken your economics class where they tell you that free trade benefits everybody
00:22:24.000 and, you know, maybe you lose a job, but it's okay, you get a better job,
00:22:28.940 to then be working in a big city surrounded by other people of good jobs
00:22:33.440 and just kind of assume that that happened.
00:22:36.420 And I think, you know, one of the really important things about Donald Trump's success
00:22:42.880 is that I do think that represents a point at which you can no longer say,
00:22:48.240 well, you could reasonably be sitting around just not understanding.
00:22:51.640 At that point, I think you face a choice.
00:22:53.580 You either have to recognize,
00:22:56.100 wow, there are some things I did not understand that are serious problems that we need to focus more on,
00:23:02.700 or, and plain people did this, you conclude,
00:23:06.160 wow, I just don't like my country.
00:23:07.620 Obviously, the people must be too racist or xenophobic
00:23:11.880 or just not understand how good they have it and good riddance.
00:23:16.300 And let's be honest, again, you're right, it's a small share of the population,
00:23:20.040 but among those with power and money and influence,
00:23:23.720 it's a large share of the population that even with Donald Trump's success,
00:23:29.280 even now, went in that direction.
00:23:32.780 And they call it, you know, a term, they call it grievance-anomics.
00:23:36.160 If you think there are problems out there that things are not going well,
00:23:40.560 you're just feeding the grievances of those who should take opportunities.
00:23:45.500 Yeah, I just, I think that's a moral crime, that attitude,
00:23:48.080 and I hope the people who have it are held responsible at some point.
00:23:51.960 Sorry, I can't, I have to,
00:23:53.360 I've asked you this before, you've never given me a real answer,
00:23:56.460 so I'm just going to ask you one last time.
00:23:58.780 Given your profile, your life history, the merit badges you collected,
00:24:03.280 the fact you went to Harvard Law School and worked for Mitt Romney,
00:24:05.080 how did you wind up with these views?
00:24:08.340 You're like the only person who, J.D. Vance, okay,
00:24:11.440 but he had a childhood that was different from yours.
00:24:16.200 You, more than anybody I've ever met,
00:24:18.560 like took a path that was not obvious at all,
00:24:20.800 given why did you do that?
00:24:23.820 It's a good question.
00:24:25.220 I don't try to avoid answering.
00:24:27.260 I don't necessarily have a great answer.
00:24:29.420 I think the, if I were to pick two things,
00:24:33.180 one is I ended up sort of hitting all those important checkpoints,
00:24:38.840 but I kind of had a much quirkier upbringing.
00:24:42.820 I mean, I give my parents a lot of credit.
00:24:45.500 They were Americans, but they grew up overseas,
00:24:48.780 met overseas in Israel.
00:24:51.300 And so, you know, met at the American school.
00:24:54.480 My dad lived on a kibbutz.
00:24:56.580 They got married there.
00:24:58.260 And so they moved back to the U.S.
00:25:00.360 I was raised in the U.S.,
00:25:01.700 but with a just sort of different outlook.
00:25:05.760 They hadn't come through that model that we were just talking about
00:25:09.400 in the, you know, in the 60s and 70s.
00:25:11.680 They weren't here.
00:25:13.200 And so...
00:25:13.920 They were growing things?
00:25:15.680 Literally, that's right.
00:25:16.780 My dad was head of irrigation on a desert kibbutz.
00:25:21.140 And so like, pipe, you know, like literally nozzles on pipes.
00:25:26.400 And so, you know, I look back and I realized that
00:25:30.120 I've been incredibly fortunate to have been given at once
00:25:36.240 both a lot of the sort of superficial accompaniments
00:25:43.460 of the standard meritocracy,
00:25:45.380 but also an outlook and set of values that from them
00:25:50.420 really did focus much more on, you know,
00:25:54.220 question one is family and what you're doing there
00:25:57.540 and how you structure a job and a career comes around that.
00:26:01.800 Amen.
00:26:02.420 So on and so forth.
00:26:03.300 Were they religious?
00:26:04.640 No, not especially.
00:26:07.120 You know, I think the...
00:26:08.380 This is something you see a lot.
00:26:13.580 And, you know, the Israeli connection is interesting there.
00:26:15.840 On one hand, it's very religious.
00:26:16.900 There's also just a very strong sort of secular culture
00:26:20.340 that I think exists there.
00:26:24.340 And so I had that.
00:26:26.220 And then the other thing I had,
00:26:27.540 and my grandfather was an extraordinary trial lawyer.
00:26:31.120 And from the age of about four, he, my age of four,
00:26:36.560 he just, whatever I wanted to say,
00:26:38.360 he would just immediately take the other side of it
00:26:40.340 and start arguing with me about it.
00:26:42.860 My first book is...
00:26:44.780 He was willing to argue with a four-year-old?
00:26:46.640 He absolutely...
00:26:47.120 Yes.
00:26:47.440 That was...
00:26:48.160 If that was who was available to argue with,
00:26:51.760 that was who he was going to argue with.
00:26:53.380 My first book is in tributes is in memory of Irv,
00:26:58.420 who always liked a good argument.
00:27:00.200 That was...
00:27:01.460 And I just grew up loving that.
00:27:04.120 And the idea that everything was always up for argument
00:27:06.440 and testing both sides of,
00:27:08.340 I think just left me at every stage
00:27:12.060 reflexively unwilling to accept the...
00:27:15.860 You know, sometimes in a very unhealthy contrarian way,
00:27:18.080 but also in a healthy contrarian way,
00:27:20.840 insisting on arguing about it
00:27:23.100 and pushing on it from all directions.
00:27:25.220 And so, you know, I think those two things
00:27:27.420 then left me kind of moving up
00:27:28.840 through standard Republican conservative politics,
00:27:31.760 but a little bit as an outsider
00:27:34.260 and looking at saying like,
00:27:35.280 well, like, why is that?
00:27:36.920 I'm not sure that makes sense.
00:27:38.120 That's not what I thought we were here to do.
00:27:40.820 I thought conservatism meant
00:27:42.300 the things we've been talking about here,
00:27:44.360 not tax cuts.
00:27:47.740 And that led me down a lot of interesting paths.
00:27:51.580 Well, it led you away from like,
00:27:53.100 everybody in your world.
00:27:55.280 Because, I mean, I've lived here the whole time.
00:27:58.320 The path for conservatives at Harvard Law School
00:28:01.460 is well-trod.
00:28:03.320 Not a huge number,
00:28:04.180 but there have been a lot over the years.
00:28:06.060 And they're all, you know,
00:28:07.700 I'm a socially liberal,
00:28:09.080 but economically conservative.
00:28:10.880 And you literally took the inverse position.
00:28:12.980 I mean, it's like the single most unpopular combination
00:28:17.060 that you could have.
00:28:20.820 Yeah, I don't, I guess that's true.
00:28:23.280 You guess that's true?
00:28:24.920 That's definitely true.
00:28:26.080 Now that you mention it,
00:28:27.560 I do think though,
00:28:30.280 and this has been my experience with all the work that,
00:28:34.200 you know, we've been doing at American Compass
00:28:35.680 over the last five years,
00:28:37.200 which is my organization that sort of works on,
00:28:40.280 okay, what is, you know,
00:28:41.460 what is conservatism?
00:28:42.520 What should it mean going forward?
00:28:45.760 I find that as long as you're willing to
00:28:48.580 sort of engage people in good faith
00:28:52.380 and try to understand what they think
00:28:55.360 and tell them what you think
00:28:56.460 and argue about it.
00:28:58.480 Again, this is back to the,
00:29:00.100 you know, our mantra is
00:29:01.600 intellectual combat with personal civility.
00:29:06.060 Yeah, there are the people who will be like,
00:29:07.460 oh, well, I don't like that.
00:29:08.460 Like, I don't like that person anymore.
00:29:09.920 The vast majority of people
00:29:12.140 are actually really interested in it.
00:29:15.380 And so, you know,
00:29:17.100 I guess it would be interesting to be sitting here,
00:29:19.880 like telling you about the huge personal cost
00:29:21.700 I've paid for doing these things.
00:29:24.320 Frankly, there hasn't been the personal cost at all.
00:29:28.360 It's been very-
00:29:29.260 You did give up a lot of money,
00:29:30.240 just in point of fact, but whatever.
00:29:32.100 Oh, well, certainly to do public policy
00:29:33.940 instead of going and, you know,
00:29:35.680 being in business, whatever.
00:29:36.960 But that's always been,
00:29:38.040 ever since I was a high school debate nerd,
00:29:40.040 I was always, always wanted,
00:29:42.520 like I said,
00:29:42.960 always wanted to be arguing about stuff.
00:29:45.280 So, okay, you managed,
00:29:48.080 I think, to, in the four years,
00:29:50.260 four years that you've-
00:29:51.260 Five years.
00:29:51.760 Five years you've been running it.
00:29:52.840 Okay.
00:29:53.560 To remain pretty civil
00:29:54.720 and people are civil back
00:29:55.740 and like it's all interesting
00:29:56.940 until the tariffs happen,
00:29:59.100 at which point it becomes
00:30:00.420 pretty emotionally charged,
00:30:02.320 I would say.
00:30:02.800 So, what's your position
00:30:06.240 on Trump's tariffs?
00:30:08.200 Are they working?
00:30:09.320 And what kind of response
00:30:11.080 have you received
00:30:11.840 as like one of the best-known
00:30:13.500 tariff proponents?
00:30:16.040 Yeah, it has been a fascinating time
00:30:19.360 since sort of the administration started,
00:30:21.440 especially after Liberation Day.
00:30:24.640 You know, my view is that
00:30:25.840 the direction that Trump
00:30:27.720 and the administration are going,
00:30:28.860 it's exactly the right one.
00:30:30.100 That the willingness to focus
00:30:33.040 on how globalization failed,
00:30:34.960 that free trade isn't real,
00:30:36.420 it has not worked out
00:30:37.300 the way it was promised,
00:30:38.600 we need to move on to something else,
00:30:40.980 is exactly right.
00:30:42.460 The fact that they're willing
00:30:43.440 to acknowledge it has costs
00:30:45.120 and that we should bear those costs
00:30:47.120 is extraordinary.
00:30:49.360 I mean, how long has it been
00:30:50.520 since we had politicians
00:30:51.520 who were actually willing
00:30:52.620 to stand up and say,
00:30:54.380 yes, this isn't just a free lunch.
00:30:56.140 There are actual costs here
00:30:57.760 and we think they're worth it.
00:31:00.100 And I think that's right too.
00:31:02.860 It's such a good point.
00:31:04.800 And it's, the irony of course
00:31:05.880 is it's exactly the, you know,
00:31:08.140 the very important people,
00:31:09.800 very serious people
00:31:10.620 in the newspaper columns and so forth
00:31:12.580 who've been complaining like,
00:31:14.420 oh, we politicians won't do this,
00:31:16.340 they won't be serious.
00:31:17.360 You finally get, you know,
00:31:19.260 President Trump and Secretary Besant,
00:31:21.160 people who are willing
00:31:22.000 to say these things
00:31:23.100 and immediately everybody attacks them.
00:31:25.280 How dare you suggest
00:31:26.440 we should accept any costs?
00:31:28.040 You know, like look at these fools
00:31:29.260 saying, you know,
00:31:30.420 and it's like,
00:31:30.900 no, this is exactly
00:31:32.220 what actual leadership looks like.
00:31:34.340 This is what we need
00:31:35.540 if we are going to get back
00:31:37.680 out of the hole that we've dug.
00:31:39.880 I think that being said,
00:31:41.380 you know, especially when you are
00:31:42.440 doing this kind of thing
00:31:43.400 that does have upfront costs,
00:31:45.120 you're kind of making an investment
00:31:46.740 for a payout down the road.
00:31:48.680 You have to be really careful
00:31:50.140 to keep those costs
00:31:51.380 as low as you can
00:31:52.460 and make sure you're setting yourself
00:31:55.060 for as much of the return
00:31:57.000 as you can.
00:31:58.380 And, you know,
00:31:59.160 I think in some of the sort of,
00:32:01.040 frankly, chaos that we've seen
00:32:02.980 in changes in the policy,
00:32:05.620 in a lot of people
00:32:06.640 not necessarily being clear on,
00:32:08.920 okay, where are we going and why,
00:32:11.900 I think in some cases
00:32:12.760 the costs have been higher
00:32:14.680 than they have to be.
00:32:16.100 And I think it's been
00:32:16.980 really encouraging to see,
00:32:18.760 you know,
00:32:19.160 really after Liberation Day,
00:32:21.320 a bunch of shifts
00:32:22.280 that have improved things.
00:32:23.960 So I'm somebody who thinks
00:32:25.580 tariffs are good,
00:32:27.040 we should have them,
00:32:28.060 but you should phase them in.
00:32:29.980 You should give people time
00:32:31.220 to adjust.
00:32:33.320 And so now we've started
00:32:34.260 doing that, right?
00:32:35.200 Tariffs were paused
00:32:36.040 so we could have negotiations.
00:32:37.740 With China,
00:32:38.560 they've now come back down a bunch
00:32:40.240 so we can have negotiations.
00:32:41.980 I think what we should have
00:32:42.840 is a very clear commitment
00:32:44.020 that down the road,
00:32:46.260 two or three years out,
00:32:47.320 for the long run,
00:32:49.340 countries that are not
00:32:50.720 playing by the rules,
00:32:51.660 obviously China,
00:32:54.060 you know,
00:32:54.280 countries that are not willing
00:32:55.360 to take a balanced approach
00:32:56.600 to trade,
00:32:57.820 yes,
00:32:58.280 there are going to be tariffs,
00:32:59.300 there are going to be obstructions,
00:33:01.640 and if you are somebody
00:33:03.080 who wants to do business
00:33:03.800 in America,
00:33:04.880 you need to start planning for that,
00:33:06.860 and you need to invest more
00:33:08.520 in America.
00:33:10.300 And going back to Adam Smith
00:33:12.060 and what the paragraph
00:33:12.780 about the invisible hand
00:33:13.900 actually says,
00:33:15.420 if we want our economy
00:33:16.380 to work well,
00:33:17.220 it has to be one
00:33:18.120 where the way to make
00:33:19.340 a lot of money in America
00:33:20.340 is by making things
00:33:22.400 in America.
00:33:25.860 Can we?
00:33:27.120 Oh, yeah.
00:33:28.080 It's one of the saddest things
00:33:29.000 about this country,
00:33:29.620 the country's getting sicker
00:33:30.580 despite all of our wealth
00:33:31.600 and technology,
00:33:33.220 Americans aren't doing well
00:33:34.720 overall.
00:33:35.320 Obesity,
00:33:35.860 heart disease,
00:33:36.560 autoimmune conditions,
00:33:37.660 all kinds of horrible
00:33:38.520 chronic illnesses,
00:33:39.940 weird cancers,
00:33:40.740 they're all on the rise.
00:33:41.860 Probably a lot of reasons
00:33:42.680 for this,
00:33:43.040 but one of them definitely
00:33:43.860 is Americans don't eat
00:33:44.980 very well anymore.
00:33:46.260 They don't eat real food,
00:33:47.280 instead they eat
00:33:47.880 industrial substitutes
00:33:49.440 and it's not good.
00:33:51.700 It's time for something new
00:33:52.800 and that's where
00:33:53.240 masa chips come in.
00:33:55.300 Masa has decided
00:33:56.020 to revive real food
00:33:57.100 by creating snacks
00:33:58.400 how they used to be made,
00:33:59.960 how they're supposed
00:34:00.520 to be made.
00:34:00.940 A masa chip
00:34:01.620 has just three
00:34:02.700 simple ingredients,
00:34:03.900 not 117.
00:34:05.380 Three.
00:34:06.280 No seed oils,
00:34:07.180 no artificial additives,
00:34:08.300 just real delicious food
00:34:09.700 and I know this
00:34:10.180 because we eat
00:34:10.660 a ton of them
00:34:11.780 in my house.
00:34:12.580 And by the way,
00:34:12.920 I feel great.
00:34:14.420 So you can still
00:34:15.040 continue to snack
00:34:15.940 but you can do it
00:34:16.700 in a healthy way
00:34:17.380 with chips
00:34:18.160 without feeling guilty
00:34:19.840 about it.
00:34:20.520 Masa chips are delicious.
00:34:21.760 They taste how
00:34:22.180 a tortilla chip
00:34:22.760 is supposed to taste
00:34:23.800 but the thing is
00:34:24.920 you can hit them
00:34:25.500 really, really hard
00:34:26.620 and I have
00:34:27.780 and not feel bloated
00:34:29.260 or sluggish after
00:34:30.520 you feel like
00:34:31.060 you've done something
00:34:31.780 decent for your body.
00:34:33.300 You don't feel like
00:34:33.860 you got a head injury
00:34:34.840 or you don't feel
00:34:35.480 filled with guilt.
00:34:36.960 You feel light
00:34:37.820 and energetic.
00:34:38.500 It's the kind of snack
00:34:39.020 your grandparents ate.
00:34:40.500 Worth bringing back.
00:34:41.480 So you can go to
00:34:41.980 masachips.com
00:34:42.980 masachips.com
00:34:45.680 slash tucker
00:34:46.240 to start snacking
00:34:47.100 get 25% off.
00:34:48.480 We enjoy them.
00:34:49.300 You will too.
00:34:50.380 It's one of the saddest
00:34:51.300 things about this country.
00:34:52.080 The country is getting sicker
00:34:53.020 despite all of our wealth
00:34:54.040 and technology.
00:34:55.700 Americans aren't doing well
00:34:57.160 overall.
00:34:57.760 Obesity,
00:34:58.300 heart disease,
00:34:59.000 autoimmune conditions,
00:35:00.100 all kinds of horrible
00:35:00.960 chronic illnesses,
00:35:02.380 weird cancers.
00:35:03.180 They're all on the rise.
00:35:04.320 Probably a lot of reasons
00:35:05.120 for this but one of them
00:35:05.920 definitely is Americans
00:35:06.920 don't eat very well anymore.
00:35:08.880 They don't eat real food
00:35:09.720 instead they eat
00:35:10.340 industrial substitutes
00:35:11.900 and it's not good.
00:35:14.220 It's time for something new
00:35:15.260 and that's where
00:35:15.680 masa chips come in.
00:35:17.760 Masa has decided
00:35:18.480 to revive real food
00:35:19.540 by creating snacks
00:35:20.840 how they used to be made,
00:35:22.420 how they're supposed to be made.
00:35:23.400 A masa chip
00:35:24.060 has just three
00:35:25.140 simple ingredients,
00:35:26.340 not 117.
00:35:27.820 Three.
00:35:28.740 No seed oils,
00:35:29.640 no artificial additives,
00:35:30.760 just real delicious food
00:35:32.160 and I know this
00:35:32.620 because we eat
00:35:33.100 a ton of them
00:35:34.240 in my house.
00:35:35.020 And by the way,
00:35:35.360 I feel great.
00:35:36.880 So you can still
00:35:37.480 continue to snack
00:35:38.380 but you can do it
00:35:39.140 in a healthy way
00:35:39.840 with chips
00:35:40.620 without feeling guilty
00:35:42.280 about it.
00:35:42.960 Masa chips are delicious.
00:35:44.200 They taste how
00:35:44.620 a tortilla chip
00:35:45.200 is supposed to taste
00:35:46.240 but the thing is
00:35:47.360 you can hit them
00:35:47.940 really, really hard
00:35:49.080 and I have
00:35:50.240 and not feel bloated
00:35:51.700 or sluggish after
00:35:52.980 you feel like
00:35:53.500 you've done something
00:35:54.220 decent for your body.
00:35:55.660 You don't feel like
00:35:56.300 you got a head injury
00:35:57.300 or you don't feel
00:35:57.940 filled with guilt.
00:35:59.400 You feel light
00:36:00.260 and energetic.
00:36:00.940 It's the kind of snack
00:36:01.460 your grandparents ate.
00:36:02.940 Worth bringing back.
00:36:03.920 So you can go to
00:36:04.420 masachips.com
00:36:05.400 Masa is M-A-S-A
00:36:06.220 by the way
00:36:06.620 masachips.com
00:36:08.120 slash Tucker
00:36:08.680 to start snacking
00:36:09.540 get 25% off.
00:36:10.920 We enjoy them.
00:36:11.740 You will too.
00:36:12.720 The people in charge
00:36:13.960 want you to be weak.
00:36:15.100 It's obvious.
00:36:16.540 Fat, weak, passive.
00:36:18.480 Take your pills.
00:36:20.200 Why do they want this?
00:36:21.160 Because you'll be
00:36:21.500 easier to control.
00:36:22.540 No thanks.
00:36:23.760 So our friends at Beam
00:36:24.780 which is a proud
00:36:25.480 American company
00:36:26.600 understand that
00:36:27.440 America can only be strong
00:36:28.820 if its people are strong
00:36:29.940 and they're working
00:36:31.280 to make this
00:36:31.940 a stronger country.
00:36:32.780 They've got a new
00:36:33.240 creatine product.
00:36:34.180 Creatine is an amino acid
00:36:35.120 produced by your body
00:36:35.880 naturally
00:36:36.360 and it helps people
00:36:37.960 stay mentally sharp
00:36:39.340 and physically fit.
00:36:40.660 Joe Biden probably
00:36:41.320 could have used some.
00:36:42.660 It would have been better
00:36:43.140 than whatever else
00:36:43.660 he was taking.
00:36:44.540 So people like to
00:36:45.180 mock creatine
00:36:46.100 the people in charge
00:36:47.100 the people who want
00:36:47.740 you to be weak
00:36:48.200 but it actually works.
00:36:49.240 You know that
00:36:49.520 because a lot of people
00:36:50.260 use it.
00:36:51.300 And Beam's creatine
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00:36:53.080 your strength
00:36:53.560 your brain health
00:36:54.400 your longevity
00:36:55.120 while remaining
00:36:55.960 completely free of sugar
00:36:57.080 and none of the
00:36:57.480 synthetic garbage
00:36:58.380 that infests
00:36:59.760 so much of what we eat.
00:37:01.300 Again
00:37:01.660 they don't talk
00:37:02.900 about this much
00:37:03.760 a population
00:37:04.500 that is strong
00:37:05.180 clear-minded
00:37:05.700 physically capable
00:37:06.680 is a threat
00:37:07.980 but that doesn't mean
00:37:09.040 you can't be
00:37:09.500 all of those things
00:37:10.220 you should be.
00:37:11.380 So to celebrate
00:37:11.840 real American strength
00:37:12.900 Beam is offering
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00:37:14.720 their best-selling
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00:37:30.140 Beam is built
00:37:30.840 on the core values
00:37:31.660 of integrity
00:37:32.280 results
00:37:33.300 no BS
00:37:34.040 we strongly
00:37:34.960 recommend it.
00:37:36.460 So for example
00:37:37.220 China
00:37:38.400 I heard the estimate
00:37:41.280 from someone
00:37:41.960 in manufacturing
00:37:42.540 yesterday
00:37:43.080 makes
00:37:44.780 the world's
00:37:45.560 magnets
00:37:45.920 they're used
00:37:48.080 in everything
00:37:49.400 we have about
00:37:53.600 two weeks left
00:37:54.500 supply
00:37:55.080 in the United States
00:37:56.600 trying to cut off
00:37:57.760 all shipments
00:37:58.400 of magnets
00:37:58.840 to the United States
00:37:59.560 how long
00:38:02.680 do we build
00:38:03.000 a magnet plant
00:38:03.700 like what
00:38:04.560 how is that resolved?
00:38:06.040 Yeah
00:38:06.180 these things
00:38:07.660 take time
00:38:08.460 I think it's funny
00:38:09.260 you know
00:38:09.640 you said earlier
00:38:10.300 like well the good news
00:38:11.420 is people are starting
00:38:12.280 to realize how
00:38:13.200 big a mess
00:38:14.520 we've made
00:38:15.160 the other thing
00:38:15.560 I always say
00:38:15.960 is the good news
00:38:16.760 is that we've done
00:38:17.620 it to ourselves
00:38:18.500 which is
00:38:20.140 I guess mixed news
00:38:22.440 but it's good news
00:38:23.860 in that
00:38:24.340 it is policy choices
00:38:25.800 that we made
00:38:26.780 that have led
00:38:27.840 to this situation
00:38:28.720 which means
00:38:30.120 we can make
00:38:30.800 other policy choices
00:38:32.020 you know
00:38:33.640 there are some things
00:38:34.800 if you think back
00:38:35.460 in the 1970s
00:38:36.580 with the oil crisis
00:38:37.540 oil embargo
00:38:38.200 and so forth
00:38:38.840 there was a situation
00:38:40.600 where in
00:38:41.220 in the foreseeable
00:38:42.600 period
00:38:43.100 we just didn't
00:38:44.140 have oil
00:38:44.780 now it turns out
00:38:46.000 we actually
00:38:46.320 did have
00:38:46.840 massive reserves
00:38:47.460 of oil
00:38:47.720 it took
00:38:48.040 technological innovation
00:38:49.140 to access it
00:38:50.140 but at least
00:38:50.880 in the short
00:38:51.480 to medium term
00:38:51.980 you can say
00:38:52.220 like look
00:38:52.520 we just don't
00:38:52.920 have the oil
00:38:53.420 and our economy
00:38:54.520 runs on oil
00:38:55.260 like that's just
00:38:56.240 a sort of
00:38:56.840 geographic reality
00:38:58.220 the problems
00:39:00.000 that we have
00:39:00.660 created with trade
00:39:01.800 are not about
00:39:03.760 actual geography
00:39:05.360 right
00:39:06.400 it's not like
00:39:07.380 oh shoot
00:39:07.800 we can't grow
00:39:08.680 avocados
00:39:09.240 where will we
00:39:09.780 get the avocados
00:39:10.600 from
00:39:10.980 the problems
00:39:12.320 are all a result
00:39:13.440 of our country's
00:39:15.380 decision that
00:39:15.920 we didn't care
00:39:16.780 what we made
00:39:17.520 or whether we
00:39:18.220 made anything
00:39:18.700 at all
00:39:19.180 and other
00:39:20.180 countries
00:39:20.720 China being
00:39:21.640 obvious
00:39:22.040 but you know
00:39:23.040 it's also
00:39:23.560 Korea and
00:39:24.320 Japan and
00:39:24.900 Taiwan and
00:39:25.520 Germany
00:39:25.860 saying
00:39:26.960 no it's
00:39:27.600 actually really
00:39:28.140 important
00:39:28.680 to what we
00:39:29.680 make
00:39:30.020 and so
00:39:30.380 we are going
00:39:30.980 to be the
00:39:31.260 ones that
00:39:31.640 invest in
00:39:32.180 making it
00:39:32.800 and as a
00:39:33.760 result
00:39:34.020 all of that
00:39:34.940 investment
00:39:35.340 all of that
00:39:35.760 technology
00:39:36.140 went to
00:39:36.500 those places
00:39:37.140 but if we
00:39:38.860 make the
00:39:39.240 other decision
00:39:39.900 if we
00:39:40.700 say
00:39:41.220 no actually
00:39:42.580 we care
00:39:43.540 at least
00:39:43.880 as much
00:39:44.160 as those
00:39:44.500 places
00:39:44.920 we are going
00:39:46.020 to make
00:39:46.260 things here
00:39:46.700 too
00:39:47.120 we certainly
00:39:48.400 we have
00:39:48.940 the natural
00:39:49.320 resources
00:39:49.860 we have
00:39:51.220 the
00:39:51.540 innate
00:39:52.580 skill
00:39:53.020 in the
00:39:53.340 workforce
00:39:53.700 we have
00:39:54.320 the capital
00:39:54.920 we can
00:39:56.600 do it
00:39:56.820 too
00:39:57.060 and
00:39:58.040 you know
00:39:58.640 just a
00:39:59.060 sort of
00:39:59.700 two
00:40:00.860 two really
00:40:01.500 good examples
00:40:02.020 of this
00:40:02.380 one is
00:40:03.460 Reagan
00:40:04.480 actually did
00:40:05.060 this
00:40:05.380 right
00:40:05.580 people
00:40:05.760 oh Ronald
00:40:06.260 Reagan
00:40:06.580 free trader
00:40:07.300 like
00:40:07.740 not true
00:40:08.360 the
00:40:08.800 libertarian
00:40:09.640 Cato
00:40:09.980 Institute
00:40:10.480 when
00:40:10.920 Reagan
00:40:11.140 left
00:40:11.380 office
00:40:11.900 Cato
00:40:12.520 called
00:40:12.740 him
00:40:12.840 the
00:40:12.960 worst
00:40:13.160 protectionist
00:40:13.820 since
00:40:14.080 Herbert
00:40:14.380 Hoover
00:40:14.700 you know
00:40:16.860 especially
00:40:17.520 vis-a-vis
00:40:18.000 Japan
00:40:18.620 Reagan
00:40:19.960 had no
00:40:20.480 patience
00:40:21.000 for the
00:40:21.500 trading
00:40:21.720 relationship
00:40:22.220 as it
00:40:22.540 was
00:40:22.660 working
00:40:23.100 and
00:40:24.080 under
00:40:24.640 threat
00:40:25.040 of
00:40:25.260 tariffs
00:40:25.760 just as
00:40:26.340 Trump
00:40:26.520 is
00:40:26.660 doing
00:40:26.880 now
00:40:27.280 Reagan
00:40:27.600 went
00:40:27.740 to
00:40:27.820 the
00:40:27.940 Japanese
00:40:28.280 and
00:40:28.840 said
00:40:29.380 the
00:40:30.540 way
00:40:30.720 that
00:40:30.840 you
00:40:30.920 are
00:40:31.080 flooding
00:40:31.420 our
00:40:31.840 market
00:40:32.520 with
00:40:32.940 Japanese
00:40:33.320 made
00:40:33.620 automobiles
00:40:34.480 cannot
00:40:34.960 continue
00:40:35.480 and the
00:40:36.620 Japanese
00:40:37.020 not wanting
00:40:38.080 the
00:40:38.260 tariffs
00:40:38.660 said
00:40:39.040 okay
00:40:39.460 we will
00:40:40.300 voluntarily
00:40:41.000 cap
00:40:41.920 how much
00:40:42.600 we import
00:40:43.280 into the
00:40:43.760 United States
00:40:44.420 and we
00:40:45.140 will instead
00:40:45.580 send Honda
00:40:46.320 and Toyota
00:40:46.760 to go
00:40:47.200 invest
00:40:47.600 in the
00:40:48.000 United
00:40:48.200 States
00:40:48.700 and the
00:40:49.520 entire
00:40:50.020 American
00:40:50.400 auto
00:40:50.660 industry
00:40:50.980 in the
00:40:51.220 American
00:40:51.460 South
00:40:51.960 is a
00:40:52.780 function
00:40:53.140 of
00:40:53.520 that
00:40:54.300 of
00:40:54.680 Reagan
00:40:55.480 saying
00:40:56.140 free trade
00:40:57.940 does not
00:40:58.300 work here
00:40:58.880 you need
00:40:59.820 to come
00:41:00.060 invest
00:41:00.380 here
00:41:00.760 and
00:41:01.380 lo and
00:41:01.640 behold
00:41:02.040 American
00:41:02.800 workers
00:41:03.200 can
00:41:03.420 build
00:41:04.000 great
00:41:04.240 cars
00:41:04.700 including
00:41:05.600 Hondas
00:41:05.980 and
00:41:06.120 Toyotas
00:41:06.640 Toyota
00:41:07.080 Camry
00:41:09.080 has more
00:41:09.620 American
00:41:10.060 made
00:41:10.320 content
00:41:10.780 in it
00:41:11.280 than
00:41:12.040 anything
00:41:12.520 coming
00:41:12.800 out
00:41:12.920 of
00:41:13.020 Detroit
00:41:13.400 and
00:41:14.700 that
00:41:15.260 was
00:41:15.460 an
00:41:15.700 extraordinary
00:41:16.240 success
00:41:16.600 really
00:41:16.860 yes
00:41:17.540 because
00:41:18.500 it
00:41:18.680 wasn't
00:41:19.020 just
00:41:19.160 so
00:41:19.280 the
00:41:19.400 first
00:41:19.600 thing
00:41:19.720 that
00:41:19.840 happens
00:41:20.100 is
00:41:20.240 the
00:41:20.380 assembly
00:41:20.820 plant
00:41:21.420 comes
00:41:21.700 over
00:41:22.020 once
00:41:23.400 this
00:41:23.580 is
00:41:23.660 a
00:41:23.760 place
00:41:23.920 where
00:41:24.060 you're
00:41:24.180 assembling
00:41:24.460 well
00:41:24.640 now
00:41:24.740 it
00:41:24.840 makes
00:41:24.960 sense
00:41:25.140 to move
00:41:25.440 the
00:41:25.580 supply
00:41:25.920 chains
00:41:26.260 over
00:41:26.580 now
00:41:27.280 it
00:41:30.760 this
00:41:31.300 is
00:41:31.440 how
00:41:31.600 these
00:41:31.920 countries
00:41:32.220 got
00:41:32.440 everything
00:41:32.780 from
00:41:33.040 us
00:41:33.320 they
00:41:33.520 took
00:41:34.020 the
00:41:34.140 American
00:41:34.460 manufacturers
00:41:35.160 and said
00:41:35.480 come over
00:41:35.880 here
00:41:36.080 instead
00:41:36.460 and it
00:41:37.380 all
00:41:37.520 moved
00:41:37.960 in a
00:41:38.340 case
00:41:38.540 where
00:41:38.700 we've
00:41:38.920 actually
00:41:39.200 said
00:41:39.800 no
00:41:40.120 you
00:41:40.240 have
00:41:40.380 to
00:41:40.480 bring
00:41:40.640 it
00:41:40.760 here
00:41:41.120 that
00:41:42.320 works
00:41:42.580 too
00:41:42.900 and
00:41:43.540 the
00:41:44.020 other
00:41:44.140 great
00:41:44.300 example
00:41:44.560 we're
00:41:44.740 seeing
00:41:44.960 now
00:41:45.220 is
00:41:45.360 with
00:41:45.500 semiconductors
00:41:46.260 right
00:41:46.600 we have
00:41:46.880 what's
00:41:47.060 called
00:41:47.240 the
00:41:47.560 the
00:41:47.820 chips
00:41:48.120 act
00:41:48.600 where
00:41:49.240 we
00:41:49.340 basically
00:41:49.620 said
00:41:50.000 wow
00:41:50.240 it's
00:41:50.380 a
00:41:50.480 huge
00:41:50.700 mistake
00:41:51.200 that
00:41:51.480 America
00:41:52.520 inventor
00:41:53.080 of
00:41:53.200 the
00:41:53.320 semiconductor
00:41:53.880 pioneer
00:41:54.520 of
00:41:54.940 pretty
00:41:55.540 much
00:41:55.680 everything
00:41:56.040 chips
00:41:56.300 related
00:41:56.700 we
00:41:57.420 just
00:41:57.560 said
00:41:57.660 we
00:41:57.760 didn't
00:41:57.940 care
00:41:58.200 we
00:41:58.660 let
00:41:58.820 all
00:41:58.960 go
00:41:59.100 overseas
00:41:59.520 right
00:42:00.320 the
00:42:00.480 reason
00:42:00.680 Taiwan
00:42:01.300 there
00:42:01.820 it's
00:42:02.400 not
00:42:02.520 because
00:42:02.740 Taiwan's
00:42:03.260 beaches
00:42:03.520 are
00:42:03.740 made
00:42:03.900 out
00:42:04.040 of
00:42:04.180 silicon
00:42:04.500 there's
00:42:05.060 nothing
00:42:05.420 special
00:42:06.020 about
00:42:06.340 Taiwan
00:42:06.960 Taiwanese
00:42:08.300 government
00:42:08.740 said
00:42:09.120 we're
00:42:09.840 going
00:42:09.960 to
00:42:10.080 lead
00:42:10.260 in
00:42:10.440 chips
00:42:10.760 and
00:42:11.560 now
00:42:12.080 that
00:42:12.220 the
00:42:12.340 U.S.
00:42:12.540 has
00:42:12.640 said
00:42:12.780 no
00:42:12.920 we're
00:42:13.140 going
00:42:13.260 to
00:42:13.320 lead
00:42:13.480 in
00:42:13.660 chips
00:42:14.000 and
00:42:14.220 Taiwan
00:42:14.600 semiconductor
00:42:15.160 is
00:42:15.760 making
00:42:16.360 60
00:42:17.840 billion
00:42:18.120 now
00:42:18.340 another
00:42:23.320 said
00:42:23.740 the
00:42:24.140 yields
00:42:24.500 coming
00:42:24.820 out
00:42:25.040 of
00:42:25.160 it
00:42:25.300 so
00:42:25.460 basically
00:42:25.680 the
00:42:25.900 quality
00:42:26.320 of
00:42:26.480 the
00:42:26.640 chip
00:42:26.840 manufacturing
00:42:27.460 in
00:42:27.600 Arizona
00:42:27.960 is
00:42:28.540 already
00:42:28.980 better
00:42:29.680 than
00:42:29.880 in
00:42:30.080 Taiwan
00:42:30.380 so
00:42:31.600 we
00:42:32.100 can
00:42:32.260 do
00:42:32.440 it
00:42:32.620 but
00:42:32.820 it's
00:42:32.960 a
00:42:33.100 policy
00:42:33.440 choice
00:42:33.900 of
00:42:34.140 whether
00:42:34.560 we
00:42:34.740 care
00:42:34.920 and
00:42:35.040 whether
00:42:35.180 we're
00:42:35.340 going
00:42:35.560 to
00:42:35.720 do
00:42:35.860 it
00:42:36.120 so
00:42:37.140 you
00:42:38.520 know
00:42:38.620 we
00:42:38.700 can't
00:42:38.880 make
00:42:39.020 everything
00:42:39.440 what
00:42:42.300 should
00:42:42.560 we
00:42:42.720 make
00:42:43.020 so
00:42:43.380 if
00:42:43.540 you
00:42:43.740 were
00:42:44.020 in
00:42:44.400 charge
00:42:44.820 of
00:42:45.200 reshoring
00:42:45.820 manufacturing
00:42:46.480 to
00:42:46.680 the
00:42:46.780 United
00:42:46.980 States
00:42:47.460 what
00:42:49.020 would
00:42:49.160 be
00:42:49.260 the
00:42:49.400 industries
00:42:49.820 would
00:42:50.020 get
00:42:50.180 priority
00:42:50.640 so
00:42:51.740 I
00:42:51.880 think
00:42:52.180 there
00:42:52.340 are
00:42:52.440 a
00:42:52.640 few
00:42:52.900 that
00:42:53.080 you
00:42:53.200 really
00:42:53.400 give
00:42:53.620 priority
00:42:54.060 to
00:42:54.380 because
00:42:54.660 they
00:42:54.880 have
00:42:55.380 some
00:42:55.680 kind
00:42:56.000 of
00:42:56.080 unique
00:42:56.360 strategic
00:42:56.860 value
00:42:57.420 either
00:42:57.800 for
00:42:58.100 defense
00:42:58.700 purposes
00:42:59.240 or
00:42:59.700 because
00:43:00.040 of
00:43:00.340 the
00:43:00.660 way
00:43:00.860 supply
00:43:01.300 chains
00:43:01.780 grow up
00:43:02.220 around
00:43:02.540 them
00:43:02.860 and
00:43:03.260 so
00:43:03.620 chips
00:43:04.060 is
00:43:04.240 a
00:43:04.340 great
00:43:04.480 example
00:43:04.840 of
00:43:05.040 this
00:43:05.320 critical
00:43:06.100 minerals
00:43:06.560 you
00:43:06.880 mentioned
00:43:07.120 the
00:43:07.300 magnet
00:43:07.780 is
00:43:08.060 a
00:43:08.180 great
00:43:08.380 example
00:43:08.760 of
00:43:08.940 this
00:43:09.280 I
00:43:10.560 think
00:43:10.720 batteries
00:43:11.240 whether
00:43:11.940 it's
00:43:12.100 for
00:43:12.240 electric
00:43:12.500 vehicles
00:43:13.060 for
00:43:13.600 electric
00:43:13.940 grid
00:43:14.160 generally
00:43:14.580 for
00:43:15.000 all
00:43:15.300 sorts
00:43:15.480 of
00:43:15.600 uses
00:43:15.920 is
00:43:16.460 probably
00:43:16.780 one
00:43:17.040 of
00:43:17.160 these
00:43:17.360 things
00:43:17.840 and
00:43:18.560 so
00:43:18.760 there
00:43:19.200 are
00:43:19.740 a few
00:43:19.980 particular
00:43:20.340 things
00:43:20.580 you
00:43:20.660 want
00:43:20.800 to
00:43:20.880 identify
00:43:21.200 and
00:43:21.360 say
00:43:21.460 we
00:43:21.600 have
00:43:21.940 to
00:43:22.060 have
00:43:22.340 this
00:43:22.740 and
00:43:23.200 that's
00:43:23.720 where
00:43:23.840 I
00:43:23.940 would
00:43:24.100 use
00:43:24.480 what's
00:43:25.040 called
00:43:25.180 industrial
00:43:25.600 policy
00:43:26.240 right
00:43:26.680 you
00:43:26.820 literally
00:43:27.520 say
00:43:27.960 we've
00:43:28.640 decided
00:43:28.980 this
00:43:29.220 industry
00:43:29.560 is
00:43:29.720 important
00:43:30.140 and
00:43:30.440 government
00:43:30.920 people
00:43:31.740 call
00:43:32.000 this
00:43:32.160 picking
00:43:32.440 winners
00:43:32.760 and
00:43:32.980 losers
00:43:33.380 it's
00:43:34.260 not
00:43:34.440 picking
00:43:34.780 this
00:43:35.140 company
00:43:35.440 wins
00:43:35.740 this
00:43:35.920 company
00:43:36.180 loses
00:43:36.560 but
00:43:37.100 it's
00:43:37.360 picking
00:43:37.740 we
00:43:38.900 actually
00:43:39.200 have
00:43:39.380 a
00:43:39.520 point
00:43:39.700 of
00:43:39.840 view
00:43:40.080 as
00:43:40.460 a
00:43:40.600 country
00:43:40.900 that
00:43:41.120 we
00:43:41.300 want
00:43:41.540 this
00:43:41.740 thing
00:43:42.040 beyond
00:43:43.860 that
00:43:44.180 one
00:43:44.760 of
00:43:44.900 the
00:43:45.000 things
00:43:45.200 that's
00:43:45.460 so
00:43:45.620 great
00:43:46.120 about
00:43:46.380 tariffs
00:43:46.840 it's
00:43:47.060 funny
00:43:47.180 I'm
00:43:47.500 having
00:43:47.680 a lot
00:43:47.940 of
00:43:48.040 fights
00:43:48.300 about
00:43:48.580 people
00:43:48.960 with
00:43:49.080 this
00:43:49.180 right
00:43:49.340 now
00:43:49.600 because
00:43:50.020 in
00:43:50.820 my
00:43:51.100 view
00:43:51.380 tariffs
00:43:51.920 are
00:43:52.120 actually
00:43:52.480 the
00:43:52.660 free
00:43:52.900 market
00:43:53.260 approach
00:43:54.060 a
00:43:54.880 tariff
00:43:55.440 it
00:43:55.960 can
00:43:56.100 be
00:43:56.220 a
00:43:56.340 very
00:43:56.500 broad
00:43:56.940 based
00:43:57.400 policy
00:43:58.940 you're
00:43:59.480 not
00:43:59.660 picking
00:43:59.880 a
00:44:00.000 particular
00:44:00.220 industry
00:44:00.760 you're
00:44:01.240 just
00:44:01.440 saying
00:44:01.920 look
00:44:02.620 we're
00:44:02.920 going
00:44:03.040 to
00:44:03.120 give
00:44:03.240 an
00:44:03.340 advantage
00:44:03.740 to
00:44:04.060 things
00:44:04.300 made
00:44:04.520 domestically
00:44:05.200 so
00:44:06.100 whichever
00:44:06.380 things
00:44:07.020 make
00:44:07.460 relatively
00:44:08.280 speaking
00:44:08.720 the
00:44:08.920 most
00:44:09.180 sense
00:44:09.620 to
00:44:09.880 make
00:44:10.060 domestically
00:44:10.760 will
00:44:11.120 come
00:44:11.300 back
00:44:11.680 the
00:44:12.520 things
00:44:12.840 that
00:44:13.200 relatively
00:44:13.820 speaking
00:44:14.320 make
00:44:14.880 the
00:44:15.080 least
00:44:15.340 sense
00:44:15.840 to
00:44:16.180 make
00:44:16.340 domestically
00:44:16.980 will
00:44:17.380 stay
00:44:17.620 elsewhere
00:44:18.000 we
00:44:18.780 don't
00:44:19.120 have
00:44:19.280 to
00:44:19.420 tell
00:44:19.720 people
00:44:20.120 what
00:44:20.580 to
00:44:20.760 invest
00:44:21.160 in
00:44:21.500 we
00:44:22.120 can
00:44:22.240 just
00:44:22.400 tell
00:44:22.600 people
00:44:23.020 all
00:44:23.640 things
00:44:23.900 equal
00:44:24.220 we're
00:44:24.600 giving
00:44:24.780 a
00:44:24.920 10%
00:44:25.400 advantage
00:44:25.900 to
00:44:26.660 making
00:44:26.900 things
00:44:27.200 here
00:44:27.560 now
00:44:28.780 go
00:44:29.100 and
00:44:30.220 I
00:44:30.460 think
00:44:30.680 that
00:44:31.100 creates
00:44:31.600 a
00:44:31.760 much
00:44:32.240 healthier
00:44:32.800 economic
00:44:34.060 system
00:44:34.720 it's
00:44:35.740 much
00:44:36.060 closer
00:44:36.360 to
00:44:36.520 Adam
00:44:36.720 Smith's
00:44:37.100 invisible
00:44:37.460 hand
00:44:38.100 and
00:44:39.120 means
00:44:39.600 we
00:44:39.760 have
00:44:39.860 to
00:44:39.940 have
00:44:40.060 less
00:44:40.400 regulation
00:44:41.160 right
00:44:41.820 we
00:44:41.980 don't
00:44:42.140 have
00:44:42.300 to
00:44:42.400 go
00:44:42.560 around
00:44:43.040 figuring
00:44:43.420 out
00:44:43.700 what's
00:44:44.460 every
00:44:44.640 other
00:44:44.800 country
00:44:45.100 doing
00:44:45.460 what do
00:44:45.740 we
00:44:45.840 have
00:44:46.000 to
00:44:46.140 correct
00:44:46.560 this
00:44:46.860 way
00:44:47.060 or
00:44:47.180 that
00:44:47.420 way
00:44:47.800 we
00:44:48.960 don't
00:44:49.160 have
00:44:49.440 to
00:44:49.560 say
00:44:49.700 oh
00:44:49.880 let's
00:44:50.200 not
00:44:50.340 forget
00:44:53.900 everybody
00:44:54.100 who
00:44:54.460 isn't
00:44:55.480 succeeding
00:44:55.900 because
00:44:56.180 we
00:44:56.320 don't
00:44:56.500 have
00:44:56.620 this
00:44:56.800 stuff
00:44:57.180 we
00:44:57.940 just
00:44:58.100 say
00:44:58.300 we
00:44:58.700 actually
00:44:58.920 want
00:44:59.160 to
00:44:59.240 have
00:44:59.360 a
00:44:59.480 free
00:44:59.640 market
00:44:59.880 in
00:45:00.020 the
00:45:00.100 United
00:45:00.340 States
00:45:00.880 but
00:45:01.640 it
00:45:01.960 has
00:45:02.260 to
00:45:02.380 be
00:45:02.520 one
00:45:02.780 that
00:45:03.080 makes
00:45:03.600 things
00:45:04.120 and
00:45:04.700 so
00:45:05.100 we
00:45:05.780 hereby
00:45:06.120 give
00:45:06.320 an
00:45:06.440 advantage
00:45:06.820 to
00:45:07.360 whoever
00:45:07.740 wants
00:45:08.020 to
00:45:08.140 make
00:45:08.280 something
00:45:08.520 here
00:45:08.880 and
00:45:09.260 then
00:45:09.540 as
00:45:10.700 the
00:45:11.240 Chinese
00:45:11.520 would
00:45:11.720 say
00:45:12.000 let
00:45:12.300 the
00:45:12.840 flowers
00:45:13.220 bloom
00:45:13.600 why
00:45:15.260 is
00:45:15.420 that
00:45:15.520 so
00:45:15.700 hard
00:45:15.860 to
00:45:16.040 do
00:45:16.240 that
00:45:16.440 seems
00:45:16.860 pretty
00:45:17.760 straightforward
00:45:18.200 I
00:45:19.000 would
00:45:19.140 imagine
00:45:23.900 which
00:45:24.080 that
00:45:24.260 gets
00:45:24.460 done
00:45:24.680 and
00:45:24.820 why
00:45:24.980 hasn't
00:45:25.300 it
00:45:25.420 been
00:45:25.640 well
00:45:27.020 the
00:45:27.340 reason
00:45:27.860 it
00:45:28.220 hasn't
00:45:28.780 been
00:45:28.960 is
00:45:29.140 because
00:45:29.700 our
00:45:30.180 point
00:45:30.540 of
00:45:30.700 view
00:45:30.820 was
00:45:31.040 that
00:45:31.340 nothing
00:45:31.960 that
00:45:32.160 I
00:45:32.280 just
00:45:32.440 said
00:45:32.600 was
00:45:32.780 true
00:45:33.140 right
00:45:34.080 our
00:45:34.240 point
00:45:34.420 of
00:45:34.520 view
00:45:34.640 in
00:45:35.520 terms
00:45:35.700 of
00:45:35.820 the
00:45:35.920 underlying
00:45:36.180 assumptions
00:45:36.660 our
00:45:36.980 point
00:45:37.160 of
00:45:37.260 view
00:45:37.360 was
00:45:37.480 that
00:45:37.600 making
00:45:37.820 things
00:45:38.180 doesn't
00:45:38.600 matter
00:45:38.940 there's
00:45:39.700 a
00:45:39.840 very
00:45:40.060 famous
00:45:40.500 quote
00:45:41.080 attributed
00:45:41.560 to
00:45:41.880 Michael
00:45:42.220 Boskin
00:45:42.760 who
00:45:43.120 was
00:45:43.380 the
00:45:43.760 George
00:45:44.480 H.W.
00:45:45.140 Bush's
00:45:45.560 chief
00:45:45.840 economic
00:45:46.240 advisor
00:45:46.720 he
00:45:47.640 literally
00:45:53.900 theory
00:45:54.460 then
00:45:55.340 yeah
00:45:56.320 who
00:45:56.580 cares
00:45:57.080 if
00:45:57.560 the
00:45:57.780 idea
00:45:58.040 is
00:45:58.220 well
00:45:58.340 anything
00:45:58.580 that
00:45:58.820 China
00:45:59.100 can
00:45:59.340 make
00:45:59.520 more
00:45:59.740 cheaply
00:46:00.420 we
00:46:01.380 want
00:46:01.660 China
00:46:01.940 to
00:46:02.140 make
00:46:02.400 it
00:46:02.700 then
00:46:03.220 why
00:46:03.400 on
00:46:03.540 earth
00:46:03.700 would
00:46:03.880 you
00:46:04.120 put
00:46:04.820 a
00:46:04.940 thumb
00:46:05.080 on
00:46:05.220 the
00:46:05.340 scale
00:46:05.720 to
00:46:06.080 make
00:46:06.240 something
00:46:06.520 here
00:46:06.960 and
00:46:08.040 so
00:46:08.420 that
00:46:09.140 model
00:46:09.760 persisted
00:46:11.360 for a
00:46:11.600 very
00:46:11.740 long
00:46:12.000 time
00:46:12.440 and
00:46:12.660 it
00:46:12.820 persisted
00:46:13.420 partly
00:46:13.860 on
00:46:14.080 the
00:46:14.260 failed
00:46:14.560 on
00:46:14.840 the
00:46:14.980 very
00:46:15.280 foolish
00:46:15.540 assumption
00:46:15.900 that
00:46:16.060 we
00:46:16.160 just
00:46:16.300 don't
00:46:16.480 care
00:46:16.740 if
00:46:16.880 we
00:46:16.980 can
00:46:17.120 make
00:46:17.340 anything
00:46:17.820 it
00:46:18.720 also
00:46:18.960 persisted
00:46:19.460 on
00:46:19.560 the
00:46:19.700 foolish
00:46:19.900 assumption
00:46:20.300 that
00:46:20.600 don't
00:46:20.900 worry
00:46:21.100 these
00:46:21.320 things
00:46:21.540 will
00:46:21.740 sort
00:46:21.980 of
00:46:22.160 self
00:46:22.560 correct
00:46:23.040 and
00:46:23.260 work
00:46:23.460 themselves
00:46:23.820 out
00:46:24.240 so
00:46:24.740 you
00:46:25.540 know
00:46:25.680 the
00:46:26.460 best
00:46:27.020 way
00:46:27.160 I
00:46:27.280 think
00:46:27.420 to
00:46:27.560 see
00:46:27.800 how
00:46:28.180 badly
00:46:29.240 things
00:46:29.540 have
00:46:29.680 gone
00:46:29.920 is
00:46:30.200 our
00:46:30.500 trade
00:46:30.780 imbalance
00:46:31.240 right
00:46:31.820 we
00:46:32.040 get
00:46:32.380 you
00:46:32.780 know
00:46:32.860 we
00:46:33.040 bring
00:46:33.640 in
00:46:33.840 more
00:46:34.000 than
00:46:34.140 a
00:46:34.280 trillion
00:46:34.540 dollars
00:46:34.980 more
00:46:35.260 stuff
00:46:35.640 from
00:46:35.860 overseas
00:46:36.260 every
00:46:36.600 year
00:46:36.780 than
00:46:36.940 we
00:46:37.160 sell
00:46:37.620 to
00:46:37.780 the
00:46:37.900 rest
00:46:38.060 of
00:46:38.200 the
00:46:38.320 world
00:46:38.680 that
00:46:39.780 suggests
00:46:40.180 that
00:46:40.460 trade
00:46:40.760 isn't
00:46:41.000 working
00:46:41.300 very
00:46:48.960 such
00:46:49.160 imbalances
00:46:49.740 won't
00:46:50.500 persist
00:46:50.920 they
00:46:51.140 will
00:46:51.240 take
00:46:51.420 care
00:46:51.560 of
00:46:51.640 themselves
00:46:52.220 you
00:46:53.020 know
00:46:53.140 Krugman
00:46:53.500 I
00:46:53.700 was
00:46:53.840 actually
00:46:54.100 this
00:46:54.720 was
00:46:54.820 a
00:46:54.920 discussion
00:46:55.240 I
00:46:55.940 was
00:46:56.160 part
00:46:56.460 of
00:46:56.560 with
00:46:56.720 him
00:46:56.940 and
00:46:57.060 I
00:46:57.180 said
00:46:57.380 like
00:46:57.620 why
00:46:58.680 do
00:46:58.980 you
00:46:59.060 say
00:46:59.200 that
00:46:59.360 and
00:46:59.440 he
00:46:59.520 said
00:46:59.700 like
00:46:59.860 yeah
00:46:59.980 that
00:47:00.120 was
00:47:00.260 naive
00:47:00.760 like
00:47:01.240 just
00:47:01.500 sorry
00:47:02.280 we
00:47:02.480 built
00:47:02.820 an
00:47:02.960 awful
00:47:03.180 lot
00:47:03.400 on
00:47:03.520 that
00:47:03.680 idea
00:47:04.060 and
00:47:04.320 that
00:47:04.420 was
00:47:04.520 wrong
00:47:05.040 you
00:47:05.960 see
00:47:06.160 the
00:47:06.340 same
00:47:06.640 thing
00:47:07.140 you
00:47:07.480 know
00:47:07.640 Janet
00:47:08.160 Yellen
00:47:08.520 who
00:47:08.740 was
00:47:08.960 Biden's
00:47:09.320 Treasury
00:47:09.540 secretary
00:47:10.040 has
00:47:10.300 recently
00:47:10.700 said
00:47:11.280 look
00:47:11.460 the
00:47:11.660 standard
00:47:11.980 economic
00:47:12.660 model
00:47:13.360 was
00:47:13.840 if
00:47:14.000 someone
00:47:14.260 will
00:47:14.440 send
00:47:14.680 you
00:47:14.800 something
00:47:15.140 for
00:47:15.480 cheaper
00:47:15.900 you
00:47:16.940 just
00:47:17.160 send
00:47:17.360 a
00:47:17.500 thank
00:47:17.700 you
00:47:17.820 note
00:47:18.120 and
00:47:19.320 she
00:47:20.260 said
00:47:20.600 I
00:47:20.760 would
00:47:20.900 never
00:47:21.060 say
00:47:21.280 that
00:47:21.480 again
00:47:21.840 that
00:47:22.360 that
00:47:22.640 just
00:47:23.000 wasn't
00:47:23.340 true
00:47:23.620 and
00:47:24.460 so
00:47:24.780 one
00:47:25.400 reason
00:47:25.960 we
00:47:26.120 have
00:47:26.220 not
00:47:26.400 done
00:47:26.600 it
00:47:26.720 is
00:47:26.840 because
00:47:26.980 we
00:47:27.160 actively
00:47:27.700 believe
00:47:28.080 things
00:47:28.320 that
00:47:28.440 were
00:47:28.580 wrong
00:47:29.020 and
00:47:29.780 we
00:47:30.200 are
00:47:30.320 fortunately
00:47:30.760 now
00:47:31.140 starting
00:47:31.580 to
00:47:32.060 realize
00:47:33.060 that
00:47:33.340 and try
00:47:33.560 to
00:47:33.700 fix
00:47:33.960 it
00:47:34.220 I
00:47:34.500 would
00:47:34.820 argue
00:47:35.000 that's
00:47:36.220 all
00:47:36.360 clearly
00:47:36.700 true
00:47:36.940 slightly
00:47:37.420 more
00:47:37.740 complicated
00:47:38.260 though
00:47:38.480 because
00:47:38.640 it
00:47:38.800 wasn't
00:47:39.300 just
00:47:39.580 that
00:47:39.740 people
00:47:39.940 believed
00:47:40.540 something
00:47:40.880 that
00:47:41.080 was
00:47:41.220 wrong
00:47:41.660 now
00:47:42.300 demonstrably
00:47:43.000 it
00:47:43.860 was
00:47:44.060 that
00:47:44.360 the
00:47:44.700 people
00:47:45.120 who
00:47:45.560 argued
00:47:46.000 it
00:47:46.180 was
00:47:46.340 wrong
00:47:46.740 weren't
00:47:48.360 just
00:47:48.520 like
00:47:48.680 debated
00:47:49.100 in
00:47:49.360 good
00:47:49.500 faith
00:47:49.700 they
00:47:49.820 were
00:47:49.920 destroyed
00:47:50.340 as
00:47:50.540 people
00:47:50.900 so
00:47:51.580 the
00:47:51.760 two
00:47:52.000 biggest
00:47:52.320 advocates
00:47:52.720 of
00:47:53.060 the
00:47:53.400 position
00:47:53.780 you're
00:47:54.180 describing
00:47:54.560 now
00:47:54.960 were
00:47:55.800 Ross
00:47:56.080 Pro
00:47:56.260 and
00:47:56.440 Pat
00:47:56.640 Buchanan
00:47:57.100 and
00:47:58.140 both
00:47:58.420 of
00:47:58.560 were
00:47:58.660 driven
00:47:59.320 from
00:47:59.660 public
00:48:00.000 life
00:48:00.360 on
00:48:00.520 the
00:48:00.640 basis
00:48:00.940 of
00:48:01.180 claims
00:48:01.500 that
00:48:01.640 they
00:48:01.740 were
00:48:01.880 like
00:48:02.120 not
00:48:02.440 just
00:48:02.620 wrong
00:48:02.900 on
00:48:03.040 economics
00:48:03.420 but
00:48:03.640 like
00:48:03.840 dangerous
00:48:04.680 bad
00:48:04.980 people
00:48:05.360 what
00:48:06.300 was
00:48:06.440 that
00:48:06.820 it's
00:48:07.980 a great
00:48:08.640 point
00:48:09.020 and
00:48:09.380 I'm
00:48:10.180 using
00:48:10.720 Krugman
00:48:11.160 again
00:48:11.400 as an
00:48:11.720 example
00:48:12.000 he
00:48:12.260 actually
00:48:12.540 has
00:48:13.200 a
00:48:13.440 fascinating
00:48:13.880 essay
00:48:14.280 where
00:48:14.500 he
00:48:14.700 says
00:48:15.360 look
00:48:15.840 some
00:48:16.040 people
00:48:16.280 won't
00:48:16.540 understand
00:48:17.040 this
00:48:17.520 stuff
00:48:18.220 that
00:48:18.380 we
00:48:18.480 now
00:48:18.680 know
00:48:19.400 is
00:48:19.580 not
00:48:19.740 true
00:48:20.020 and
00:48:20.760 you're
00:48:20.900 not
00:48:21.060 going
00:48:21.160 to
00:48:21.240 convince
00:48:21.520 them
00:48:21.860 so
00:48:22.060 the
00:48:22.220 best
00:48:22.480 tool
00:48:22.700 you
00:48:22.840 have
00:48:23.080 is
00:48:23.220 ridicule
00:48:23.900 that
00:48:24.920 that
00:48:25.500 if
00:48:25.660 you
00:48:30.940 them
00:48:31.340 but
00:48:31.680 with
00:48:32.100 sufficient
00:48:32.520 ridicule
00:48:33.400 you
00:48:33.780 can
00:48:33.960 either
00:48:34.300 essentially
00:48:34.840 force
00:48:35.280 them
00:48:35.420 to
00:48:35.540 stop
00:48:35.760 saying
00:48:36.100 it
00:48:36.340 or
00:48:36.560 make
00:48:37.100 sure
00:48:37.260 that
00:48:37.400 nobody
00:48:37.640 else
00:48:37.940 listens
00:48:38.300 to
00:48:38.500 them
00:48:38.740 and
00:48:38.860 it
00:48:38.960 worked
00:48:39.260 in
00:48:39.600 both
00:48:39.780 cases
00:48:40.180 there's
00:48:40.880 another
00:48:41.080 I guess
00:48:42.200 this is
00:48:42.480 Krugman
00:48:42.820 this is
00:48:43.740 the Krugman
00:48:44.180 segment
00:48:44.500 of the
00:48:44.800 show
00:48:45.080 there's
00:48:45.840 a
00:48:45.960 very
00:48:46.180 famous
00:48:46.740 anecdote
00:48:47.380 Danny
00:48:48.400 Roderick
00:48:48.940 who's
00:48:49.280 an
00:48:49.500 economist
00:48:49.820 at
00:48:50.040 Harvard
00:48:50.320 and
00:48:50.480 one
00:48:50.580 of
00:48:50.660 the
00:48:50.780 very
00:48:51.060 few
00:48:51.320 people
00:48:51.720 who
00:48:52.100 has
00:48:52.580 always
00:48:52.880 been
00:48:53.080 skeptical
00:48:53.440 of
00:48:53.680 globalization
00:48:54.080 tells
00:48:55.260 the
00:48:55.480 story
00:49:00.940 and
00:49:01.380 Krugman
00:49:01.660 writes
00:49:01.920 back
00:49:02.400 you
00:49:02.920 know
00:49:03.100 the
00:49:03.360 substance
00:49:04.000 of
00:49:04.260 this
00:49:04.420 is
00:49:04.540 all
00:49:04.720 fine
00:49:05.120 but
00:49:05.460 you
00:49:05.880 shouldn't
00:49:06.160 do
00:49:06.300 it
00:49:06.400 you
00:49:06.500 will
00:49:06.940 give
00:49:07.220 ammunition
00:49:07.720 to
00:49:07.940 the
00:49:08.060 barbarians
00:49:08.880 hey
00:49:09.520 it's
00:49:09.720 Tucker
00:49:09.920 Carlson
00:49:10.280 you may
00:49:10.540 have
00:49:10.660 noticed
00:49:10.960 that
00:49:11.100 the
00:49:11.220 companies
00:49:11.520 whose
00:49:11.700 products
00:49:12.040 you
00:49:12.180 buy
00:49:12.380 tend
00:49:12.640 to
00:49:12.820 hate
00:49:13.420 you
00:49:13.700 they're
00:49:13.960 controlled
00:49:14.380 by
00:49:14.880 massive
00:49:16.000 multinational
00:49:16.740 corporations
00:49:17.400 and they
00:49:17.840 have
00:49:18.000 all
00:49:18.300 kinds
00:49:18.600 of
00:49:18.720 weird
00:49:18.880 agendas
00:49:19.360 that
00:49:19.760 you're
00:49:19.900 supporting
00:49:20.240 when you
00:49:20.480 buy
00:49:20.600 their
00:49:20.740 products
00:49:21.060 we
00:49:21.480 didn't
00:49:21.860 realize
00:49:22.340 that
00:49:22.580 nicotine
00:49:23.260 pouches
00:49:23.800 which
00:49:23.960 we've
00:49:24.160 used
00:49:24.340 for
00:49:24.540 years
00:49:25.080 were
00:49:25.300 in
00:49:25.600 this
00:49:25.800 category
00:49:26.200 we
00:49:26.460 just
00:49:26.600 want
00:49:26.700 a
00:49:26.800 nicotine
00:49:27.140 pouch
00:49:27.500 and
00:49:27.720 then
00:49:27.820 they
00:49:27.960 lecture
00:49:28.360 you
00:49:28.740 and
00:49:29.100 take
00:49:29.240 the
00:49:29.380 money
00:49:29.560 you
00:49:29.780 give
00:49:30.080 them
00:49:30.360 to
00:49:30.480 support
00:49:30.720 things
00:49:31.080 that
00:49:31.400 you
00:49:31.540 hate
00:49:31.840 so
00:49:32.160 we
00:49:32.300 decide
00:49:32.560 we're
00:49:32.760 going to
00:49:32.880 make
00:49:33.040 our
00:49:33.200 own
00:49:33.420 and
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00:50:35.880 so that's
00:50:39.600 what I
00:50:39.880 don't
00:50:40.080 understand
00:50:40.580 so why
00:50:41.240 I mean
00:50:41.560 typically
00:50:42.420 even
00:50:42.820 was a
00:50:43.280 debate
00:50:43.500 between
00:50:43.960 you know
00:50:44.320 the
00:50:44.440 Keynesians
00:50:44.960 and the
00:50:45.700 Milton Friedman
00:50:46.340 people
00:50:46.740 it didn't
00:50:48.160 get to
00:50:48.820 that level
00:50:49.980 of like
00:50:50.960 let's just
00:50:51.540 wreck the
00:50:52.160 person
00:50:52.500 let's make
00:50:53.000 you know
00:50:53.320 let's make
00:50:53.620 his wife
00:50:53.960 divorce him
00:50:54.560 but it
00:50:55.740 did
00:50:56.140 no but
00:50:56.600 it did
00:50:57.140 on you
00:50:57.920 know
00:50:58.060 I mean
00:50:58.560 it
00:50:58.740 it
00:50:59.660 kind of
00:51:00.120 wrecked
00:51:00.440 Ross Perot's
00:51:01.160 life
00:51:01.500 wrecked
00:51:02.180 Pat Buchanan's
00:51:02.800 life
00:51:03.080 like why
00:51:03.720 were the
00:51:04.520 stakes so
00:51:05.120 high on
00:51:05.560 this one
00:51:05.960 question
00:51:06.440 yeah
00:51:07.140 well I'll
00:51:07.520 give you
00:51:07.760 I'll give
00:51:08.880 you my
00:51:09.200 theory for
00:51:09.760 it
00:51:09.920 because I've
00:51:10.520 tried to
00:51:11.220 go back
00:51:11.480 and find
00:51:11.800 like where
00:51:12.220 did these
00:51:12.540 economic
00:51:12.920 arguments
00:51:13.400 come from
00:51:14.040 when they're
00:51:14.660 clearly just
00:51:15.300 not true
00:51:16.660 and
00:51:18.160 as best
00:51:19.560 I can
00:51:20.040 tell
00:51:20.400 what happened
00:51:21.240 particularly
00:51:21.760 after World
00:51:22.360 War II
00:51:22.880 and this
00:51:23.440 was in
00:51:23.780 this you
00:51:24.260 know
00:51:24.380 era where
00:51:24.840 people
00:51:25.100 kind of
00:51:25.420 were rightfully
00:51:26.020 saying
00:51:26.620 you know
00:51:27.120 never again
00:51:28.060 obviously about
00:51:29.100 the Holocaust
00:51:29.520 more broadly
00:51:30.280 about World
00:51:30.680 War II
00:51:31.040 we we
00:51:31.780 can never
00:51:32.300 go back
00:51:33.040 to that
00:51:33.500 kind of
00:51:33.900 conflict
00:51:34.460 you have
00:51:34.740 the United
00:51:35.000 Nations
00:51:35.440 you have
00:51:35.800 of course
00:51:36.460 all of
00:51:36.860 these sorts
00:51:37.280 of right
00:51:37.880 like that
00:51:38.280 is everybody's
00:51:39.160 focus
00:51:39.440 and that
00:51:40.940 is when
00:51:41.820 the arguments
00:51:43.500 about free
00:51:44.440 trade actually
00:51:45.000 start to
00:51:45.440 emerge
00:51:45.920 and they
00:51:46.500 emerge
00:51:46.800 not actually
00:51:47.840 primarily as
00:51:48.440 economic
00:51:48.820 arguments
00:51:49.280 they emerge
00:51:50.260 as a
00:51:51.420 sort of
00:51:51.760 new model
00:51:52.420 of a
00:51:52.840 of a
00:51:53.260 global world
00:51:53.880 order
00:51:54.300 and
00:51:56.540 you know
00:51:57.120 one thing
00:51:57.460 people
00:51:57.680 looked at
00:51:57.980 now
00:51:58.320 you're
00:51:58.580 getting
00:51:58.760 to the
00:51:59.060 hard
00:51:59.240 effect
00:51:59.460 well
00:52:00.240 you know
00:52:00.620 one thing
00:52:01.000 people look
00:52:01.580 at you know
00:52:02.400 what happened
00:52:02.680 after World
00:52:03.060 War I
00:52:03.520 the way
00:52:03.840 Germany
00:52:04.180 had been
00:52:04.480 treated
00:52:04.860 the idea
00:52:05.420 that you
00:52:05.880 know
00:52:05.960 sort of
00:52:06.400 holding them
00:52:07.100 down
00:52:07.480 rather than
00:52:07.920 supporting them
00:52:08.600 helps lead
00:52:09.040 to World
00:52:09.320 War II
00:52:09.660 so how are we
00:52:10.860 going to rebuild
00:52:11.360 the world
00:52:11.720 after World
00:52:12.200 War II
00:52:12.680 how are we
00:52:13.160 going to
00:52:13.380 build a
00:52:13.760 sort of
00:52:14.120 inclusive
00:52:14.700 market
00:52:15.160 that
00:52:15.540 builds
00:52:16.020 these
00:52:16.180 companies
00:52:16.640 up
00:52:16.880 how are we
00:52:17.180 going to
00:52:17.360 rebuild
00:52:17.620 Japan
00:52:18.000 as a
00:52:18.300 democracy
00:52:18.700 how are we
00:52:19.220 going to
00:52:19.440 rebuild
00:52:19.700 Germany
00:52:20.040 as a
00:52:20.320 democracy
00:52:20.740 how are we
00:52:21.640 going to
00:52:21.840 combat the
00:52:22.360 Soviet Union
00:52:23.020 which remember
00:52:23.540 is out there
00:52:24.400 now putting
00:52:26.200 out this
00:52:26.820 ideology that
00:52:27.540 says markets
00:52:28.060 just can't
00:52:28.600 work at all
00:52:29.240 we are going
00:52:30.520 to put forward
00:52:31.580 this vision
00:52:32.080 and the
00:52:33.280 best illustration
00:52:34.200 of this
00:52:34.680 is Guy Paul
00:52:36.400 Samuelson
00:52:36.940 Nobel Prize
00:52:38.020 winner
00:52:38.260 sort of
00:52:38.900 writes the
00:52:39.640 standard economics
00:52:40.860 textbook that
00:52:41.540 comes out in
00:52:41.960 1948 right
00:52:43.260 after World
00:52:43.680 War II
00:52:44.120 remember I
00:52:44.920 mentioned the
00:52:45.560 the invisible
00:52:46.040 hand gets
00:52:46.600 ellipsed
00:52:47.240 that's in
00:52:47.900 this textbook
00:52:48.600 and it was
00:52:49.860 the textbook
00:52:50.680 it was
00:52:51.000 the textbook
00:52:51.900 exactly
00:52:52.360 and you
00:52:54.400 you know I
00:52:54.840 have a copy
00:52:55.940 now I went
00:52:56.340 and got like
00:52:56.780 you go through
00:52:58.140 it and you
00:52:58.820 you say okay
00:52:59.540 like well how
00:53:00.180 does he make
00:53:00.520 the argument
00:53:00.800 about free
00:53:01.200 trade and
00:53:02.720 what you find
00:53:03.100 is that he
00:53:03.460 really doesn't
00:53:04.360 he actually
00:53:05.340 acknowledges all
00:53:06.260 the ways that
00:53:07.140 free trade might
00:53:07.640 not work that
00:53:08.780 it might be bad
00:53:09.500 for the United
00:53:10.040 States
00:53:10.620 especially if
00:53:11.180 other countries
00:53:11.820 behave a certain
00:53:12.880 way and he
00:53:14.300 says quite
00:53:15.440 bluntly
00:53:16.080 basically so
00:53:17.840 what that
00:53:19.120 if if we
00:53:20.300 actually want
00:53:21.080 to build
00:53:22.360 this kind of
00:53:22.920 global economy
00:53:23.540 that we all
00:53:24.000 agree we
00:53:24.400 need the
00:53:25.600 United States
00:53:26.140 basically just
00:53:26.880 needs to take
00:53:28.040 the lead and
00:53:28.620 push this
00:53:29.120 forward and
00:53:30.940 wow and
00:53:33.360 look again and
00:53:34.340 and maybe I'm
00:53:35.440 being too
00:53:35.720 charitable again
00:53:36.520 but like I
00:53:37.840 can see why
00:53:38.260 someone would
00:53:38.600 say that in
00:53:39.140 I totally
00:53:40.580 agree and I
00:53:41.460 got to college
00:53:41.920 40 years after
00:53:42.900 that book was
00:53:43.440 written and it
00:53:43.920 was assigned
00:53:44.540 was the first
00:53:45.340 book you read
00:53:45.720 in economics
00:53:46.080 class yeah and
00:53:47.420 and by the way
00:53:48.220 you could even
00:53:48.540 say it was
00:53:48.880 right in 1948
00:53:50.220 that that and
00:53:51.440 this goes to the
00:53:51.940 point about the
00:53:52.400 boomers that the
00:53:53.200 policy as we
00:53:53.960 pursued it into
00:53:55.020 the 50s and
00:53:55.780 60s did
00:53:57.900 accomplish a lot
00:53:58.920 of what we
00:53:59.240 wanted it to
00:54:00.060 there's a
00:54:02.320 very famous
00:54:03.560 article in
00:54:04.200 in foreign
00:54:05.220 affairs in
00:54:05.960 1971 where
00:54:07.100 one of the
00:54:07.440 kind of leaders
00:54:08.000 of international
00:54:08.680 economic thinking
00:54:09.740 says quite
00:54:10.980 quite explicitly
00:54:11.900 he says you
00:54:12.680 know the case
00:54:13.300 for free trade
00:54:14.140 has always been
00:54:14.800 primarily a
00:54:15.480 foreign policy
00:54:16.240 case not an
00:54:17.580 economic policy
00:54:18.340 case and then
00:54:19.620 of course you
00:54:20.100 get to that when
00:54:20.760 we get to
00:54:21.100 China right the
00:54:22.040 entire argument
00:54:22.940 the entire
00:54:24.340 argument for
00:54:24.960 welcoming China
00:54:26.120 to WTO I
00:54:26.980 mean economists
00:54:27.400 said like oh
00:54:28.000 this will create
00:54:28.460 good jobs for
00:54:29.140 Americans and
00:54:29.740 whatever but
00:54:30.260 the actual
00:54:31.160 argument was
00:54:32.340 this is going
00:54:33.240 to fix China
00:54:34.080 this this is
00:54:35.360 the way we
00:54:35.760 democratize China
00:54:36.920 we liberalize
00:54:37.760 China and if
00:54:39.600 that happens if
00:54:40.740 China does become
00:54:41.720 a liberal democracy
00:54:42.620 and we do bring
00:54:43.780 them forward in
00:54:44.300 this way then
00:54:45.680 won't it be
00:54:46.800 wonderful that we
00:54:47.400 have trade with
00:54:48.100 them and and
00:54:49.000 won't it be great
00:54:49.720 that everybody
00:54:50.200 prospers and
00:54:51.300 again that that
00:54:52.180 wasn't like if
00:54:53.760 that had happened
00:54:54.620 that might have
00:54:56.100 been a good idea
00:54:56.740 too the the
00:54:58.480 problem is that
00:54:59.500 in the post
00:55:00.340 cold war era
00:55:01.340 this model fell
00:55:05.680 apart very
00:55:06.300 quickly
00:55:06.680 can I say
00:55:07.440 why have I
00:55:08.640 never heard
00:55:09.000 this before
00:55:09.640 I mean it's
00:55:11.180 like the most
00:55:11.460 interesting thing
00:55:12.000 I've heard in a
00:55:12.460 long time so
00:55:13.020 you're saying
00:55:13.680 that our
00:55:14.460 economic model
00:55:15.140 was not
00:55:15.580 primarily an
00:55:16.440 economic model
00:55:17.060 was an
00:55:17.320 instrument of
00:55:17.740 foreign policy
00:55:18.320 it was part
00:55:19.540 it was like the
00:55:20.220 centerpiece of
00:55:22.160 the global order
00:55:23.000 post-war global
00:55:23.680 order and it
00:55:26.560 wasn't like
00:55:27.140 designed really
00:55:28.280 to help the
00:55:28.980 United States
00:55:29.440 as much as it
00:55:30.060 was to preserve
00:55:30.700 stability around
00:55:31.740 the world
00:55:32.560 yes I don't
00:55:34.120 there are other
00:55:35.100 people who say
00:55:35.460 that I've written
00:55:36.060 an essay about
00:55:36.700 it called the
00:55:37.340 the free trade
00:55:38.140 origin myth
00:55:38.980 that kind of
00:55:39.440 goes through
00:55:40.080 the chapter and
00:55:42.260 verse on all
00:55:42.820 these various
00:55:43.280 the way it was
00:55:43.840 presented to me
00:55:44.680 as someone who
00:55:45.320 was always
00:55:45.760 conservative and
00:55:46.560 for markets and
00:55:47.420 repeated all the
00:55:47.960 slogans and all
00:55:48.540 that and was
00:55:49.320 living in the
00:55:49.780 world where like I
00:55:50.640 didn't know a
00:55:51.080 single person who
00:55:51.820 disagreed talk
00:55:52.560 about a bubble
00:55:53.060 was that free
00:55:56.000 market economics
00:55:56.720 in the way that
00:55:57.480 the United States
00:55:58.140 was doing it
00:55:59.180 was not really
00:56:01.280 an instrument
00:56:01.840 wasn't even a
00:56:02.800 theory it was
00:56:03.580 like a physics
00:56:04.140 principle right
00:56:05.320 it's just it's
00:56:06.040 just true okay
00:56:07.200 so and to the
00:56:08.340 extent that you
00:56:08.660 deviate from it
00:56:09.360 you get punished
00:56:09.980 to the extent that
00:56:10.600 you hue to it
00:56:11.220 you're rewarded
00:56:11.760 because like
00:56:12.920 gravity it's just
00:56:13.640 real right and
00:56:15.040 this is this is
00:56:15.780 the fundamentalism
00:56:16.740 but I just I
00:56:19.040 I had no idea
00:56:20.440 that this was
00:56:21.000 like like the
00:56:21.820 UN
00:56:22.300 something that
00:56:24.420 people who are
00:56:25.120 understandably like
00:56:26.340 horrified by what
00:56:27.140 they've just gone
00:56:27.580 through the world
00:56:28.880 war yeah it was
00:56:30.620 part of their
00:56:31.300 reaction to that
00:56:32.040 they're like this
00:56:32.820 will prevent that
00:56:33.420 from happening
00:56:33.900 again yeah and
00:56:34.980 and another good
00:56:35.840 example is so if
00:56:37.040 you go back so
00:56:37.620 Samuelson is the
00:56:38.600 key post-world
00:56:39.580 war textbook there's
00:56:40.980 a prior textbook by
00:56:42.420 a guy named
00:56:42.780 Alfred Marshall who's
00:56:44.160 kind of seen as the
00:56:45.200 father of like modern
00:56:46.160 economics right like
00:56:47.160 Adam Smith is like
00:56:48.060 the original guy
00:56:48.960 right Alfred Marshall
00:56:50.160 is a British
00:56:51.440 economist probably
00:56:53.460 the first one
00:56:53.860 actually be called
00:56:54.480 an economist no
00:56:55.420 one would have
00:56:55.760 called Adam Smith
00:56:56.440 an economist back
00:56:57.220 in the day so
00:56:58.720 Marshall writes
00:56:59.480 probably the first
00:57:00.560 economics textbook
00:57:01.440 comes out like
00:57:02.000 1890 and he
00:57:04.180 says essentially
00:57:05.060 nothing positive
00:57:06.020 about free trade
00:57:06.900 he actually has a
00:57:08.660 whole section you
00:57:10.360 know the comparative
00:57:11.140 advantage is this
00:57:12.020 idea that oh free
00:57:12.980 trade you know works
00:57:13.660 out great for both
00:57:14.340 sides and it's
00:57:17.740 attributed guy named
00:57:18.680 David Ricardo who
00:57:20.100 was a great you
00:57:21.120 know early 1800s
00:57:22.260 economist Marshall
00:57:23.280 has a whole section
00:57:24.200 called the narrowness
00:57:25.420 of the Ricardians
00:57:27.100 where he specifically
00:57:28.680 says look like
00:57:29.820 Ricardo has this
00:57:30.880 nice theory has
00:57:32.100 some good math
00:57:32.780 associated with it
00:57:33.900 but it only works in
00:57:35.640 very limited
00:57:36.200 circumstances it
00:57:39.000 makes a lot of
00:57:39.620 sense that Britain
00:57:40.360 as a global empire
00:57:41.260 is promoting it but
00:57:42.540 there are lots of
00:57:43.060 people it doesn't
00:57:43.800 work for the
00:57:44.440 Americans don't
00:57:45.140 believe it the
00:57:45.940 Germans don't
00:57:46.520 believe it and he
00:57:47.800 even as this
00:57:48.300 hilarious footnote
00:57:49.080 where he says a
00:57:50.380 lot of these ideas
00:57:51.080 basically seem to be
00:57:52.120 used as a way for
00:57:53.700 like people to put
00:57:55.460 one over on the
00:57:56.080 working class and
00:57:58.880 so like again all of
00:58:00.160 this and then if you
00:58:00.780 even go back to
00:58:01.380 Ricardo like and
00:58:02.540 Adam Smith these
00:58:03.360 guys as I was saying
00:58:04.200 Adam Smith knew the
00:58:04.940 invisible hand didn't
00:58:05.780 work automatically
00:58:06.560 Ricardo when he's
00:58:07.860 talking about free
00:58:08.620 trade he gives the
00:58:10.120 example of how it
00:58:10.820 could work the famous
00:58:11.960 example is England
00:58:13.320 specializes in cloth
00:58:14.720 Portugal specializes in
00:58:16.100 wine and here's all
00:58:19.020 the great ways it
00:58:19.840 works them to trade
00:58:20.680 right there on the
00:58:21.760 same page he says by
00:58:23.420 the way this only
00:58:24.000 works if capital is
00:58:25.120 immobile meaning if
00:58:27.060 the British cloth
00:58:27.720 makers can't pick up
00:58:28.880 and go make the
00:58:29.460 cloth in Portugal it's
00:58:31.160 it's it's right there
00:58:32.640 and he and and then
00:58:34.140 even more he notes and
00:58:35.660 he hopes that never
00:58:36.460 changes that that the
00:58:38.640 idea that basically
00:58:40.200 people were going to
00:58:41.420 be stuck investing and
00:58:42.900 doing business in their
00:58:43.860 own countries was one
00:58:45.760 of the the core
00:58:46.860 premises of any of
00:58:48.320 this working so it's
00:58:49.860 all there and it's
00:58:50.920 only post-world war
00:58:51.960 two that you get
00:58:53.640 partly for the foreign
00:58:54.560 policy reason and then
00:58:56.140 building on that people
00:58:56.920 looking around like
00:58:58.380 Milton Friedman and like
00:58:59.660 Friedrich Hayek and
00:59:00.620 just saying like wow
00:59:01.900 like this is all just
00:59:02.780 working right Friedrich
00:59:03.960 Hayek used this term the
00:59:05.640 the self-regulating
00:59:06.780 market and he actually
00:59:08.400 it's funny that Hayek is
00:59:10.960 one of these
00:59:11.340 libertarians who's now
00:59:12.620 associated with the
00:59:13.880 right of center and
00:59:14.720 people say like oh
00:59:15.340 like conservative
00:59:16.720 economics Hayek has a
00:59:18.280 very famous essay called
00:59:19.380 why I am not a
00:59:20.320 conservative in which he
00:59:21.960 specifically mocks
00:59:22.940 conservatives for not
00:59:24.380 being comfortable enough
00:59:25.520 with the idea that
00:59:26.900 markets are just
00:59:27.560 self-regulating and
00:59:28.860 will automatically
00:59:29.640 deliver good answers
00:59:31.080 and so it there's sort
00:59:33.120 of this weird way where
00:59:34.260 the ideas morph into
00:59:36.080 well it's working well
00:59:37.880 it must work
00:59:38.360 automatically all the
00:59:40.520 way to this
00:59:40.900 fundamentalism where
00:59:41.860 like you said it's
00:59:42.540 just like a law of
00:59:43.840 physics and if you
00:59:44.660 don't understand that
00:59:45.700 you must be an idiot
00:59:46.700 and and more
00:59:47.580 importantly you must be
00:59:48.420 a heretic and
00:59:49.400 heretics are the one
00:59:50.280 thing we cannot have
00:59:51.280 boy I mean well that
00:59:53.000 that's just we watch
00:59:54.040 that happen we watch
00:59:55.360 that happen and I
00:59:56.500 participated in the
00:59:57.380 slander by the way
00:59:58.520 I did I I have my
01:00:01.000 my you know my
01:00:03.200 original college
01:00:04.440 economics paper I've
01:00:05.440 got like here's my
01:00:06.200 two pages and why
01:00:06.900 why free trade is
01:00:07.760 good and I have this
01:00:09.180 great sentence that's
01:00:10.020 like you know while
01:00:11.960 some workers will lose
01:00:13.120 their jobs they will
01:00:13.940 find better ones like a
01:00:16.400 correct correct answer
01:00:18.580 that's what you were
01:00:19.200 supposed to say
01:00:19.940 so what's the reaction
01:00:24.420 to the administration's
01:00:26.980 tariffs in Washington
01:00:28.140 you know my my sense is
01:00:30.360 not positive but you're
01:00:32.260 closer to this well it's
01:00:33.440 interesting Washington is
01:00:34.500 changing I mean you now
01:00:35.620 right the Trump
01:00:36.280 administration I think
01:00:37.260 one of the very cool
01:00:38.260 things about and and
01:00:39.640 most encouraging things
01:00:41.100 about the second Trump
01:00:42.560 administration compared
01:00:43.320 to the first one is
01:00:45.200 that there is now an
01:00:46.120 entire team of people
01:00:47.700 who understand this
01:00:48.880 stuff are aligned on it
01:00:50.240 are carrying it out
01:00:51.200 right in in Trump's
01:00:52.520 first term Bob
01:00:54.600 Lighthizer who was I
01:00:55.920 think you had him on
01:00:56.420 recently oh yeah
01:00:57.180 straight was a
01:00:57.720 wonderful guy has been
01:00:58.700 incredible mentor to
01:01:00.680 me he wrote a
01:01:02.940 wonderful book called
01:01:04.360 no trade is free that
01:01:06.900 talks about his whole
01:01:07.840 history working on this
01:01:08.700 but especially then you
01:01:09.800 know in the Trump
01:01:10.180 administration how even
01:01:11.680 just within the senior
01:01:12.820 Trump team the I like
01:01:14.900 these ideas that we're
01:01:15.640 talking about were
01:01:16.600 incredibly controversial
01:01:17.800 there were a lot of
01:01:18.640 people who were still
01:01:19.460 like nope free trade you
01:01:20.740 know how little like
01:01:21.480 let's just make sure
01:01:22.240 Trump doesn't disrupt
01:01:23.320 things too much and now
01:01:25.880 you have a team from
01:01:27.080 Scott Besson the treasury
01:01:28.280 secretary Stephen
01:01:29.380 Mirren the head of the
01:01:30.500 council economic
01:01:31.120 advisors Jameson Greer
01:01:32.680 the US trade
01:01:33.320 representative obviously
01:01:34.360 JD Vance Howard
01:01:36.960 Lutnick at commerce all
01:01:38.540 of these people are on
01:01:40.840 the same page that this
01:01:42.000 needs to change and
01:01:43.160 they're going to push
01:01:43.940 forward this new
01:01:45.020 approach and so you
01:01:46.980 know and they have
01:01:47.580 teams that understand
01:01:49.040 that and are working on
01:01:50.140 that and so there you
01:01:51.720 actually have an a whole
01:01:53.340 administration and
01:01:54.380 then an ecosystem of
01:01:55.820 of organizations around
01:01:57.280 them working on this
01:01:58.000 stuff that are
01:01:59.200 supportive in Congress
01:02:01.320 now you know they've
01:02:02.480 been trying to bring
01:02:03.300 these resolutions of
01:02:04.320 disapproval and
01:02:06.200 Democrats vote to
01:02:08.020 disapprove just because
01:02:08.860 they disapprove of
01:02:09.560 Trump even though like
01:02:10.760 isn't that funny that
01:02:12.580 all of a sudden
01:02:13.020 Democrats are now the
01:02:14.080 you know free traders
01:02:16.220 like literally Democrats
01:02:17.240 are now fighting with
01:02:18.100 labor unions over this
01:02:19.220 because the labor
01:02:19.960 unions to a degree
01:02:20.780 like oh yeah like hey
01:02:22.220 this is actually the
01:02:23.460 kind of stuff that we
01:02:24.440 wanted that we were
01:02:25.160 talking about back in
01:02:26.020 the 90s when we were
01:02:26.940 shamed for it and now
01:02:28.400 the Democrats are
01:02:29.120 shaming them for it
01:02:30.060 but the Republican
01:02:31.800 Party generally
01:02:33.960 speaking is quite
01:02:35.420 supportive of it some
01:02:36.680 are mostly supportive
01:02:37.520 because it's the party
01:02:38.580 line but you have a
01:02:39.640 really great set of
01:02:41.440 especially you know
01:02:43.060 younger Republican
01:02:44.320 leaders folks like
01:02:46.440 Josh Hawley like
01:02:47.580 Bernie Moreno like
01:02:48.820 Jim Banks who are
01:02:51.000 are being very
01:02:52.280 outspoken and
01:02:53.060 effective advocates for
01:02:54.300 it and so there
01:02:56.560 unlike in the past
01:02:58.180 there is a Washington
01:02:59.320 that is actually
01:03:00.100 supportive of it and
01:03:01.820 then there's what you
01:03:02.360 would call the blob
01:03:03.200 yes right and the blob
01:03:05.840 obviously hates all of
01:03:07.700 it is the blob is it
01:03:10.480 your sense is the blob
01:03:11.580 getting less powerful or
01:03:13.600 more effective and
01:03:15.000 organized oh I think
01:03:16.800 the blob is getting much
01:03:18.100 less powerful good
01:03:19.300 sense too yeah I think
01:03:21.420 it's partly there is
01:03:24.300 more division within
01:03:25.920 it you know I was
01:03:26.540 describing some of the
01:03:27.300 things that someone like
01:03:28.160 a Janet Yellen or a
01:03:29.260 Paul Krugman has said
01:03:30.380 recently it is starting
01:03:33.660 to dawn on folks that
01:03:34.840 the status quo just is
01:03:36.000 not defensible and it's
01:03:38.340 funny to see the kind of
01:03:39.360 ridicule argument flipped
01:03:40.940 the other way at some
01:03:42.140 point standing up and
01:03:43.420 just being like free trade
01:03:44.280 with China is great is
01:03:46.100 now the position that's
01:03:47.100 subject to ridicule and
01:03:48.560 if there's anyone who
01:03:50.060 cares about ridicule it's
01:03:51.140 the blob it's the blob
01:03:52.720 right and so that's
01:03:54.480 actually very powerful
01:03:55.420 and then I also think
01:03:58.600 there's just a way in
01:03:59.560 which you know one
01:04:00.820 thing that that Trump
01:04:03.100 is demonstrating that
01:04:04.080 folks like Vance and
01:04:04.920 Rubio have been
01:04:05.560 demonstrated is that the
01:04:07.240 blob just doesn't have
01:04:08.980 power over you that the
01:04:12.260 blob has been so
01:04:13.300 discredited by everything
01:04:16.640 it has gotten wrong that
01:04:18.480 when the blob tries to
01:04:20.000 apply its ridicule to a
01:04:21.560 J.D. Vance right to
01:04:23.620 think like forget about
01:04:24.660 them talking to each
01:04:25.200 other to the extent that
01:04:26.020 it's just performative for
01:04:27.720 the rest of America
01:04:28.640 America's not going like
01:04:30.200 oh well this former
01:04:31.560 State Department
01:04:32.220 official you know says
01:04:34.220 says J.D. Vance is
01:04:35.340 wrong I guess J.D. Vance
01:04:36.180 is wrong they're going
01:04:37.300 like like is this the
01:04:39.720 former State Department
01:04:40.520 official who got us into
01:04:42.000 Iraq yeah why are you in
01:04:43.300 jail the one who screwed
01:04:44.280 up the Afghanistan
01:04:45.180 withdrawal or the one that
01:04:46.540 like embraced China right
01:04:48.000 like and so I look there
01:04:49.900 are some ways in which
01:04:50.520 it's a huge problem for
01:04:51.800 the country that our that
01:04:53.420 our experts have been so
01:04:55.380 discredited it would be
01:04:56.440 nice to have credible
01:04:57.400 experts but to the extent
01:04:59.460 that it's happened I think
01:05:00.960 it just does not have the
01:05:02.900 same political power that
01:05:04.120 it used to so what it just
01:05:06.340 to go back to your amazing
01:05:08.300 point sorry you've got a
01:05:10.260 dog there oh welcome
01:05:11.240 hey Al he's a tariff
01:05:13.780 supporter I think
01:05:14.900 supporter sorry you were
01:05:16.780 nice to the dog in the
01:05:17.520 way in and and you're
01:05:19.320 marked for life
01:05:19.920 your amazing point that
01:05:23.740 these were post-war
01:05:25.680 institutions self-consciously
01:05:27.300 designed to keep order
01:05:28.960 how has that worked like
01:05:33.440 leaving us and there's
01:05:34.640 really no debate in this
01:05:35.580 room anyway about the
01:05:36.400 effects on the United
01:05:37.000 States look at it it
01:05:38.720 didn't work for us did it
01:05:40.180 work for the world and do
01:05:42.420 we risk conflict by
01:05:45.040 abandoning it it's a
01:05:47.260 really good question I
01:05:48.580 mean there's one so one
01:05:50.000 way in which it obviously
01:05:50.700 did work for the world is
01:05:52.240 that it obviously worked
01:05:54.600 for hundreds of millions
01:05:55.640 of Chinese subsistence
01:05:57.420 farmers yes who have now
01:05:59.300 benefited from China's
01:06:00.540 growth yes and China is the
01:06:03.080 top example but lots of
01:06:05.340 countries have benefited from
01:06:07.040 this system and to the
01:06:09.520 extent that the US was happy
01:06:11.220 to kind of be the consumer
01:06:12.820 for other countries as
01:06:14.540 they developed in some
01:06:16.260 ways we obviously
01:06:16.880 benefited from getting to
01:06:18.140 consume a lot of stuff
01:06:19.640 too so I think it's
01:06:23.540 important certainly to
01:06:24.320 acknowledge that and I
01:06:25.740 think it's even important
01:06:26.360 to say you know good US
01:06:27.560 policy right America first
01:06:29.320 policy isn't America only
01:06:31.420 policy I think we should
01:06:33.640 want a policy that lifts
01:06:35.000 other people up when we
01:06:35.980 can but I think it's
01:06:37.700 important to be honest
01:06:38.760 about the trade-offs and
01:06:39.780 say you know look if we
01:06:41.940 do X this could have this
01:06:43.360 great effect it's also
01:06:44.200 going to have this cost
01:06:45.160 and who's bearing the
01:06:46.320 cost so there have been
01:06:48.840 those benefits I think
01:06:52.200 during the Cold War era
01:06:54.100 there was obviously
01:06:55.760 enormous benefit in
01:06:57.440 defeating the Soviet Union
01:06:58.920 I mean in that sort of an
01:07:01.240 existential conflict holding
01:07:03.460 together the American
01:07:06.960 alliance making sure that it
01:07:10.380 was seeing broadly shared
01:07:11.580 prosperity within it
01:07:12.860 proving that markets could
01:07:14.700 work better than
01:07:15.860 communism those were all
01:07:18.700 extremely important things
01:07:20.020 and by the way it did work
01:07:21.380 we did win the Cold War I
01:07:23.440 mean that's always the one
01:07:24.380 piece of credit I will give
01:07:26.260 the market fundamentalists as
01:07:27.760 I'm as I'm decrying them you
01:07:30.500 know the reason this became the
01:07:31.880 standard economic thinking on
01:07:33.540 the right of center is
01:07:34.940 because Reagan brought it in
01:07:36.940 Reagan said you know my
01:07:38.880 coalition is this kind of you
01:07:41.160 know free market economic
01:07:42.180 thinking even as he himself
01:07:43.820 was not a fundamentalist on
01:07:45.940 it the more traditional social
01:07:48.100 conservatism and the the Cold
01:07:50.220 War hawks and what actually did
01:07:52.480 all those folks have in common
01:07:53.660 they hated communism and gosh
01:07:56.920 darn it they they succeeded and
01:07:59.380 so like it's very important to
01:08:01.460 give that its due I think where
01:08:03.780 things go so off the rails is
01:08:05.000 once you don't have that
01:08:06.780 existential threat anymore and
01:08:08.720 you see it in the foreign
01:08:09.400 policy context too right where
01:08:10.880 all those hawks are now like
01:08:12.340 well let's go like find other
01:08:13.500 wars to start in ways that are
01:08:15.920 neither conservative nor good
01:08:18.040 for the nation no and the
01:08:20.020 economic folks say like well
01:08:21.460 like great how can we like
01:08:23.040 continue to carry this further
01:08:24.760 well like now we need the WTO now
01:08:27.040 we need free trade with China and
01:08:28.740 on and on and so I think it's it's
01:08:31.280 sort of it's it's the classic
01:08:33.620 pendulum swing from something
01:08:35.480 that you know a world of no trade
01:08:37.800 isn't a good world either some
01:08:39.860 good ideas were introduced they
01:08:41.780 did accomplish some things and
01:08:43.180 then it just sort of kept on
01:08:44.640 swinging all the way to the other
01:08:46.540 side and you know that's where I
01:08:50.260 think we we got stuck and where
01:08:53.440 it's now very helpful to see we've
01:08:55.520 kind of dislodged it and and we're
01:08:57.680 more swinging it back specifically
01:09:00.320 on China and they were open about
01:09:04.640 it in the early 70s when Nixon
01:09:06.580 famously went to China that this is
01:09:08.820 this will be good for the world
01:09:11.020 because it will de-radicalize
01:09:12.640 China which is the height of the
01:09:14.360 cultural revolution when he said
01:09:15.440 that so pulling back from that and
01:09:19.920 starting a trade war with China
01:09:21.640 does that increase the chance of a
01:09:25.100 conflict a military conflict with
01:09:26.220 China I don't think so I think other
01:09:29.240 things have increased the chances of
01:09:30.600 conflict right the chance the fact
01:09:32.440 that since the year 2000 China rather
01:09:35.060 than liberalizing has become more
01:09:38.300 authoritarian with more expansionist
01:09:40.340 ambitions with a massive military
01:09:42.480 buildup that makes it more likely
01:09:45.240 that we're gonna have a conflict but I
01:09:47.140 think one of the the key failures of
01:09:49.740 the blob is that it always tends to to
01:09:54.540 live in the world as as they wish it
01:09:56.760 were right rather than the world as it
01:09:58.800 is like I wish we were in a world
01:10:01.040 where China had liberalized that
01:10:02.680 sounds great but we don't I wish we
01:10:06.240 lived in a world where you know the
01:10:07.520 US was still the the superpower that
01:10:10.340 could essentially dictate terms I mean
01:10:13.600 when we did a bad job that was bad but
01:10:15.860 all things considered it would be great
01:10:17.840 for the United States want your country
01:10:19.040 to be on top absolutely but that's just
01:10:22.260 not the world anymore it's not it's not
01:10:24.980 a question of should it's a question of
01:10:26.820 is and so in the world that we have the
01:10:31.680 idea that like well higher levels of
01:10:33.540 trade with China is what's going to
01:10:34.920 diffuse conflict that's just like a
01:10:38.300 cliche that people say like you know
01:10:41.200 who had like really close relationships
01:10:43.380 and trade France and Germany and the UK
01:10:47.400 before World War One and World War Two
01:10:49.400 like this idea that countries that trade
01:10:51.720 don't go to war with each other isn't
01:10:53.720 actually a thing and so you know
01:10:56.540 conversely when we entirely decoupled from
01:10:59.480 the Soviet Union we had a war that stayed
01:11:03.520 cold and so you know I think the United
01:11:07.380 States needs to make its decisions about
01:11:09.820 the economic relationship with China
01:11:11.820 pretty much independently not believe that
01:11:14.900 one choice versus the other is the way
01:11:16.840 that we're going to manage the the
01:11:18.860 foreign relations all things consider I
01:11:21.400 think our best chance of maintaining
01:11:23.000 stable peaceful foreign relations is to
01:11:28.800 make clear that we are first of all is
01:11:31.060 to re-industrialize and make sure that we
01:11:32.760 are capable right of deterring China but
01:11:37.240 then also to make very clear that we are
01:11:39.180 not going to buy into this gobbledygook
01:11:41.660 that we are going to be realists and we
01:11:43.840 are going to look at the world as it is
01:11:45.660 and one element of that is not to
01:11:48.440 pretend that you can have free trade with
01:11:50.640 an authoritarian communist regime so
01:11:53.380 how does the tariff story end or I don't
01:11:55.860 know end but like in the next five years
01:11:57.640 we're clearly gonna have some kind of
01:11:59.220 economic reset people will get poorer
01:12:02.100 that's kind of guaranteed I think I
01:12:04.040 expect it anyway do then we evolve past
01:12:08.180 that and become more prosperous and more
01:12:10.300 cohesive like how does how does the
01:12:11.620 strand I think we do I think the best
01:12:14.240 way to understand what's going on is to
01:12:16.940 to think about this kind of world order
01:12:20.020 that we've been talking about a bunch and
01:12:21.960 recognize that what we are going through
01:12:24.040 is a transition out of us as sole
01:12:26.380 superpower to guess you would call it a
01:12:29.620 multipolar world where you know China is
01:12:33.060 a kind of peer competitor and adversary
01:12:35.740 secretary of state Rubio has actually
01:12:38.740 been talking about this a lot and all of
01:12:42.300 the assumptions we made we've been
01:12:43.540 talking about the foreign policy case for
01:12:45.500 free trade in a world where the US was
01:12:48.380 the power you could make a case that it
01:12:51.760 was worth accepting these various costs for
01:12:54.260 sort of maintaining that status in the
01:12:57.180 world where it where it is no longer
01:12:58.940 we're we're seeing in real time how it
01:13:01.240 breaks down how you can't just be the
01:13:03.600 benevolent open market when China is
01:13:06.380 now bigger bigger than you yes more
01:13:09.420 technologically advanced in some ways and
01:13:11.800 it it can't go on that way and so you
01:13:15.540 know I think the the tariffs are the sort
01:13:17.960 of tip of the spear of saying that system
01:13:22.500 is over what do we want to have replace
01:13:25.860 it and I think what what the United
01:13:27.760 States should want and what I see the
01:13:29.800 administration pointing toward and
01:13:32.020 pushing toward is basically look we
01:13:34.200 still want to have strong allies we
01:13:36.820 still want to have free trade among our
01:13:38.420 allies right when I was talking about
01:13:39.960 that idea if you have a tariff on the
01:13:42.280 outside you can have a freer market on
01:13:44.780 the inside ideally that's not just the
01:13:47.520 US alone ideally that goes for a set of
01:13:51.020 countries that actually are market
01:13:52.660 democracies and do want to play by the
01:13:55.040 rules and so what the US is doing with
01:13:57.880 the tariffs is saying look the open
01:13:59.840 season everyone does whatever they want
01:14:02.380 and unconditionally gets benefits of
01:14:05.060 American defense American market that's
01:14:08.060 over new system we would like to have
01:14:11.720 strong alliances and relationships and
01:14:13.740 low tariffs but there are now conditions
01:14:17.260 condition one is balanced trade and
01:14:21.060 again that's this idea that free trade is
01:14:23.100 great if you're actually trading stuff for
01:14:25.820 stuff and you're doing it in a way that
01:14:28.060 fits with with the economic model where
01:14:30.240 it's supposed to work and so you know
01:14:32.800 countries that have been basically taking
01:14:35.080 the most valuable industries for
01:14:36.560 themselves and just selling to us that's
01:14:39.360 over piece number two on the defense
01:14:42.960 side everybody needs to pull their own
01:14:46.240 weight and actually lead in their own
01:14:47.880 areas you want to deter Russia Germany go
01:14:51.100 figure out what you need to do to
01:14:52.420 deter Russia you want to deter China
01:14:54.180 Japan go figure out what you need to do
01:14:55.820 don't be looking over your shoulder
01:14:57.360 sort of have I done enough homework to
01:14:59.480 go outside and play like actually get
01:15:01.840 it done and it's actually interesting
01:15:04.140 you see the Trump administration
01:15:05.520 Stephen Mirren who's the chair of the
01:15:08.180 Council of Economic Advisors gave a
01:15:10.560 very good speech talking about what are
01:15:12.780 we actually looking for in these
01:15:13.940 negotiations and he said this is
01:15:16.300 economic and security these are not
01:15:18.600 separate conversations this is a question
01:15:22.260 whether you are in for both and by the
01:15:24.880 way one way you could balance your trade
01:15:26.420 with us would be to buy a whole bunch of
01:15:29.420 American weapons and pay us for the
01:15:31.360 security services we provide because it
01:15:34.120 ain't gonna be free anymore and then
01:15:36.560 piece three is China is out that more
01:15:40.820 like in the Cold War system you can't have
01:15:43.260 these sort of entangled systems where okay
01:15:46.920 the US doesn't want Chinese supply chains
01:15:49.140 so they just go set up in Mexico and it
01:15:51.080 comes in through Mexico exactly Mexico
01:15:53.360 you know and this is actually I think
01:15:55.540 why Trump started the way he did with
01:15:58.040 Mexico and Canada Mexico and Canada with
01:16:00.560 the US you should be the core of this
01:16:02.520 alliance we're talking about but you need
01:16:05.560 to understand that it can't work the way
01:16:07.980 it's been working it's going to have to
01:16:10.240 work on these terms and so you see you
01:16:12.740 know someone like Treasury Secretary Scott
01:16:14.500 Besant specifically saying you know Mexico
01:16:16.660 we need to see the same tariffs toward
01:16:19.420 China that we're putting toward China
01:16:20.840 Canada we need to see that same policy
01:16:23.460 because it can't be a sort of screen
01:16:27.140 door I mean I think it's dawning on a lot
01:16:30.260 of people that China has enormous influence
01:16:33.020 over the political structures of Canada and
01:16:35.680 China particularly Canada in some real way
01:16:41.380 kind of controls Canada so is it is it too
01:16:45.120 late to to bring those two countries
01:16:48.600 yeah I don't I don't think it's too late
01:16:50.820 and you know the funny thing about this
01:16:53.120 sort of set of demands right is that like
01:16:55.600 the the blob gets very uncomfortable with
01:16:57.800 this like oh like you can't you know
01:16:59.600 you'll drive these people into China's arms
01:17:01.880 and you actually step back and you look at
01:17:04.320 it objectively and you say this isn't some
01:17:06.660 you know exploitative client tribute regime
01:17:11.040 this is a set of demands which by the way
01:17:13.920 we hold ourselves to we we are not asking
01:17:16.980 them to switch to a trade relationship where
01:17:18.740 we get all the advantages we're just asking
01:17:21.180 for a balanced one we're not asking them
01:17:23.120 to pay for our defense we're just asking
01:17:25.360 them to do their fair share we're not asking
01:17:27.940 them to keep China out so we get all the fun
01:17:30.160 with China we're saying we all need to keep
01:17:32.240 China out and while there are obviously a lot
01:17:35.280 of people who are very sore at the moment
01:17:38.040 with how they're being treated by the
01:17:39.880 Trump administration anybody who actually
01:17:42.520 steps back and look at looks at this if
01:17:44.380 you are a market democracy that wants to
01:17:46.580 remain a market democracy this is your
01:17:49.440 chance right by the way not only are these
01:17:52.200 not unreasonable demands these things are
01:17:53.560 good for you you should want to be moving
01:17:55.700 to balanced trade you should want to have
01:17:57.300 the will to get China out and the US is
01:17:59.760 frankly helping you by giving you a way to
01:18:03.360 go in you know in your own domestic
01:18:05.240 politics to say look we can't keep pursuing
01:18:08.700 this compromise relationship partly with
01:18:10.840 China if we don't get real about this we
01:18:16.820 are going to end up outside of the US
01:18:18.980 perimeter and then stuck with China and I
01:18:22.640 think whether it's Canada and Mexico you
01:18:25.520 know Japan India Australia Korea we've
01:18:29.380 already seen with the UK now the start of a
01:18:31.560 deal I think that's sort of a no-brainer I
01:18:35.340 think the one where it's hard is Europe
01:18:36.780 I think Europe is probably more
01:18:39.300 compromised they've shown more willingness
01:18:42.900 already to just take the short-term yeah
01:18:45.700 gain where you see the crazy thing is the
01:18:47.840 the group most opposed to keeping Chinese
01:18:50.360 cheap Chinese cars out is the German
01:18:53.040 automakers oh I know because they want to
01:18:55.360 make five more years of money in China
01:18:57.060 before they get thrown out of there and so
01:19:00.420 I don't know if Europe has the the
01:19:02.200 civilizational will I don't know if they
01:19:04.720 have the understanding of their interests
01:19:06.820 and because of the way the EU is
01:19:08.300 structured I don't even know if they have
01:19:09.640 the you know this is something that could
01:19:10.940 also pretty much break apart the EU you
01:19:13.780 could have some countries that say well
01:19:15.300 wait a minute we we do want that deal
01:19:18.060 with the US and if if we can't get that
01:19:20.400 through the EU then then the EU doesn't
01:19:23.260 work anymore that's where I think you're
01:19:24.920 going to see the most tension and then
01:19:27.420 you'll see countries that are going to be
01:19:28.500 in China's sphere right Pakistan you know
01:19:32.340 I think a country like Vietnam is very
01:19:34.040 interesting question which direction they
01:19:35.780 might go at the end of the day the idea
01:19:38.580 isn't that we sort of are going to be able
01:19:40.420 to get the whole world to gang up on and
01:19:42.440 oppress China the idea is that we're
01:19:44.560 going to be in a world with two powers
01:19:46.400 that have two very different economic and
01:19:48.380 political systems and different spheres of
01:19:50.980 influence boy that is best case if we wind up
01:19:53.860 there and that goes back to your you know
01:19:55.980 the question about like well but isn't
01:19:57.700 this going to start a war or whatever
01:19:59.300 it's like no that this is the best case
01:20:01.500 this is the formula for actually having I
01:20:03.660 think a much more sustainable equilibrium
01:20:05.540 yeah like a peaceful multipolar world
01:20:08.620 yes which by the way we've had for all
01:20:10.720 of history you know up until it ended in
01:20:13.600 1991 well and this is that's that's such
01:20:17.020 an important point that people keep raising
01:20:18.620 this as like like what is this strange
01:20:20.440 unprecedented thing that like the crazy
01:20:23.520 Donald Trump is doing it's like no no
01:20:25.580 like first of all like this literally was
01:20:27.980 US policy for the Cold War right and like
01:20:30.820 not to mention this was the way foreign
01:20:32.440 affairs always worked for however many
01:20:34.520 hundred years before the Cold War it is
01:20:36.280 only people who think the world started
01:20:37.940 in 1991 that don't understand what is
01:20:40.280 the problem though it's like a deeper
01:20:42.920 problem and I hope it's I mean I pray
01:20:44.740 it's resolvable but it's like how do you
01:20:47.000 pull back from hegemony how do you scale
01:20:50.620 back an empire without becoming Great
01:20:53.900 Britain yes well and that goes to your
01:20:56.400 question about sort of the costs because
01:20:58.260 there obviously are costs here you know
01:21:01.440 some of them are the sort of direct just
01:21:03.600 consumer costs if you were relying on
01:21:05.960 cheap stuff from China you don't want to
01:21:08.000 do that anymore at least in the short run
01:21:10.280 there's going to be higher cost I think in
01:21:13.640 in the in the the medium to not even just
01:21:16.580 like the well someday but you know within
01:21:18.280 the five to ten year window you actually
01:21:21.380 see the benefits overwhelm that you see
01:21:23.960 that if you actually return to an economic
01:21:26.220 model that does encourage domestic
01:21:28.380 investment that does focus on you know
01:21:31.800 prosperity in places that aren't just a
01:21:34.240 few big cities that that is oriented toward
01:21:36.760 creating good jobs for everybody you actually
01:21:41.060 get more growth that way I mean the dirty
01:21:43.540 secret of this post-cold war period so we're
01:21:46.220 supposed to do globalization and efficiency
01:21:48.080 and growth growth just keeps getting
01:21:49.800 slower no I know it investment keeps going
01:21:52.060 down in in manufacturing productivity has
01:21:55.860 actually turned negative which should not
01:21:58.120 be possible in in a capitalist economy we
01:22:01.300 are literally getting worse at making
01:22:02.780 things you need more labor in an American
01:22:05.780 factory today than a decade ago for the same
01:22:08.760 amount of output and so this just isn't
01:22:12.200 working and going back to the kind of economic
01:22:14.700 model that did drive our prosperity for so
01:22:17.340 long I think will be much better the point
01:22:20.840 about what happens after empire that's bigger
01:22:24.600 than the than the economic question if this
01:22:26.820 were just about the numbers and the
01:22:28.640 production I think you you can see a very
01:22:30.620 clear way out the social and political and
01:22:33.600 cultural question of what does the United
01:22:35.260 States become can it return to the idea of a
01:22:40.740 republic as in fact far superior to and more
01:22:44.580 desirable than an empire on paper that sounds
01:22:48.540 great it shouldn't be a problem at all in
01:22:49.920 practice for you know anyone who studied
01:22:51.980 history knows no one has ever really stuck that
01:22:55.140 landing and and that is the challenge we
01:22:57.420 have why do you think
01:22:59.280 I think probably for a lot of the reasons
01:23:04.440 we're seeing now in our politics which is
01:23:07.120 that for the political class for people who run
01:23:09.760 things going from empire back to republic is
01:23:12.280 not desirable that the entire push toward
01:23:16.360 empire than the push toward sort of globalism
01:23:19.000 is a better end state if you are the emperor
01:23:25.260 if right if if right that if you are that set
01:23:28.860 of people and you know for me ultimately this
01:23:31.900 is kind of the best way of understanding
01:23:33.980 populism because I think everyone agrees
01:23:37.620 something like populism is happening right
01:23:39.840 and it is used often in a very sort of
01:23:44.280 derogatory way like oh populism means you
01:23:46.960 know just telling the masses what they want
01:23:48.920 to hear or ignoring experts or something like
01:23:52.040 this certainly there are plenty of bad forms
01:23:55.000 of populism but I think at its core what
01:23:58.280 particularly in a democracy what what
01:24:00.840 populism means is that you have a situation
01:24:04.540 where the elected representatives and the
01:24:07.940 other elites people with power in the
01:24:09.480 society are no longer fulfilling their own
01:24:12.700 obligation which is to use that power on
01:24:16.060 behalf of everybody that that they in fact
01:24:18.360 have a privilege to be in those positions
01:24:20.580 and with that comes the obligation to rule
01:24:23.780 not just in their own interest but in the
01:24:26.140 interest of of the entire nation and when
01:24:30.060 they lose sight of that when they think well
01:24:32.860 now that we have attained these positions it
01:24:35.020 is for us to do what is best for us the
01:24:38.420 response to that is a populism that's entirely
01:24:40.700 healthy it's to say well if the people who are in
01:24:43.760 charge are not going to act on behalf of
01:24:45.840 everybody we are no longer interested in having
01:24:48.900 those people in charge uh and frankly we will
01:24:52.380 take anybody at all if they at least will start
01:24:55.240 with that commitment that we are here to act on
01:24:57.320 behalf of the broader interest and so I think
01:24:59.860 what's so in you know what's so encouraging about
01:25:02.080 the U.S. situation what you just said is like
01:25:04.780 that's the heart of it right there I think I think
01:25:06.980 it is and I it really dawned on me speaking to uh the
01:25:09.980 faculty of a university recently who were like
01:25:12.300 extremely like they don't understand what's
01:25:14.020 going on at all and you know not talking about
01:25:17.420 elected officials just talking about the
01:25:18.500 university as a university saying look like you
01:25:21.600 guys are a sort of quasi public institution you
01:25:24.460 sort of have a you know operate in the public
01:25:26.500 trust and at some point in the last 20 years you
01:25:30.100 just decided you don't actually have to run this
01:25:32.060 place in the interest of the nation anymore you're
01:25:34.880 going to run it in the like interest of yourself and
01:25:36.980 your friends and your policies are going to be the
01:25:40.040 ones that you like best not the ones that are best
01:25:42.380 for everybody and so like yeah like either you
01:25:47.360 self-correct somehow and when I don't see that
01:25:50.000 happening or this gets done to you and and that is a
01:25:55.020 natural and necessary step and if if there's a reason
01:25:59.100 to be optimistic for the U.S. I think it's to contrast
01:26:02.140 what is going on in the U.S. with what is going on let's
01:26:05.080 say in Europe where for all of our political problems our
01:26:10.340 political system is actually proving itself to be
01:26:12.740 extremely flexible and extremely robust I mean it is
01:26:17.000 actually responding to what people want yes and it is
01:26:21.520 bringing new leaders with different ideas and those P and
01:26:25.080 and it has been painful and messy but the ship is in
01:26:28.800 fact turning you contrast that to what's going on in
01:26:31.360 Europe where you have frankly among the population a very
01:26:34.440 similar set of frustrations and desires and you have that
01:26:38.020 political class at the top ban banning political parties and
01:26:43.320 this is why I think J.D. Vance's speech at the Munich
01:26:46.020 Security Conference was so important and gets exactly to
01:26:49.100 the heart of what is going on of what the Trump
01:26:51.460 administration represents in this respect where he was
01:26:54.300 saying look the biggest problem that that we all have
01:26:57.040 here isn't some external adversary it is our it is our own
01:27:02.020 capacity to actually navigate these challenges and probably
01:27:06.420 better than any country in history for for reasons that is
01:27:09.720 driving the blob the elite absolutely nuts the U.S. is
01:27:13.760 actually showing some ability to respond and if we can pull
01:27:18.260 that off that that would be pretty exciting it'd be amazing and
01:27:22.080 I agree with every word you said and said so so well my last
01:27:26.400 question refers back to what you first said which is about the
01:27:30.540 point of the system which is to encourage and support and sustain
01:27:35.940 healthy families and bright-eyed impressive children who continue on the
01:27:40.260 civilization I don't think any person could disagree with that and thank you
01:27:44.780 for reminding us of it what are specific policy changes in the next five
01:27:51.300 years that could help that it's a great question and I think it's
01:27:56.940 important to think about it expansively because it's great that we now have a
01:28:01.740 quote family policy discussion in the U.S. but a lot of the times it is it is
01:28:07.220 basically a well how big should the child tax credit be exactly discussion and to
01:28:11.780 be clear that is an important piece of it and it this goes back to the boomer
01:28:15.420 discussion as well we have a a system of taxation and distribution in this
01:28:20.740 country that overwhelmingly brings resources to retired people I've
01:28:26.640 noticed and I don't think we should stop giving resources to retired people I
01:28:32.240 think you know the fact that we have Medicare that we have Social Security are
01:28:35.060 are great things but if there's any group to whom we should be focusing
01:28:40.900 resources on it is families raising kids who are the ones who have been I think
01:28:46.620 most squeezed by these economic changes and I don't think we should believe you
01:28:51.520 know oh well if if we if we manage to get them more resources through some sort
01:28:57.220 of child benefit or child tax credit like that's gonna like make people have more
01:29:01.620 kids in the short run right I I don't think that works very well I don't think
01:29:06.580 we want to be in the business of saying like well if we pay you you know if we pay
01:29:09.660 you a little more will you have another kid but what it will do is make the
01:29:14.000 experience of being a family raising kids better and in the culture it will
01:29:20.100 begin to shift what it feels like to be doing that and what people see about
01:29:24.520 people who are doing that not this constant struggle and and getting
01:29:30.120 squeezed but a little more something that is actually viable and desirable and
01:29:34.980 that we all have committed to supporting and so both for the sake of the
01:29:39.620 families and for the sake of the culture I think that does make a big
01:29:43.120 difference I also think it's important to note that we will have to pay for that
01:29:47.460 and the people who will pay for it are the people who are earning a lot of money
01:29:50.860 and don't have kids which is the direction of distribution we should be
01:29:56.560 leaning toward more broadly I think then and this is it's great that we're sort of
01:30:03.080 landing back here love that you said that out loud what well I mean the people who
01:30:08.420 will pay for that are the people who are earning a lot and don't have kids but
01:30:11.340 they're the ones who are constantly saying well I I don't have kids so like
01:30:16.780 why should I have to pay for other people's kids right to which you'd say
01:30:20.040 what because that is your obligation as a citizen of the nation and it is all our
01:30:26.220 obligation to raise the next generation of kids and whether someone is not called
01:30:31.820 to do that whether someone is not able to do that not everybody is going to be
01:30:34.660 doing that but the idea that you can disavow it and say not my problem is just
01:30:40.160 not true I mean there are very specific like math and demographic related reasons
01:30:44.900 it is your problem but you're making a moral case you're making a case about
01:30:48.680 the obligations of citizenship yes and and I would say you know this it's very
01:30:53.140 interesting whenever you talk about an obligation the question is like well where
01:30:55.480 does that come from like well just because like somebody said it and so I do
01:30:59.360 think you have to attach it to something and I think it attaches to two things one
01:31:03.800 is this obligation of citizenship and the idea that if you know insofar as you
01:31:09.360 think you are better off living in America than like having been dropped naked in a
01:31:13.480 jungle somewhere like you didn't you know you didn't cause America to come into
01:31:20.900 being yourself you are part of this larger system that if you want to benefit
01:31:25.360 from you probably need to contribute to but then also broadly I have crazy ideas
01:31:31.660 the the more specifically you know you as an individual came from somewhere like
01:31:38.080 you're only here because some other people actually chose to take the time and
01:31:43.200 dedicate their life to having and raising you and so you know either you could say
01:31:50.160 like well I'm just gonna like stick that in my pocket and go on vacation to
01:31:53.360 on vacation to Greece or you can't pay it back you can never repay your parents
01:31:59.460 for what they gave you the only thing you can do is pay it forward and do the
01:32:04.540 next thing the the same thing for for the next generation so whether they're yours
01:32:09.180 or not whether they're yours that's absolutely right and and and if they can
01:32:12.980 be yours ideally they will be and and and if everybody says well I'll just support
01:32:19.000 somebody else's obviously it doesn't work but I think that's the sort of dual
01:32:23.940 individual and communal commitment that's that supports all of this and so
01:32:29.840 that's the just you know we talked about the kind of narrow family policy of tax
01:32:34.180 policy and I can see why you're successful because you say these radically
01:32:38.540 countercultural things with a kind of like of course you know just just putting
01:32:44.440 ideas out there for whoever wants to pick them up there so when you go back to
01:32:49.440 Harvard and you say stuff like that how do people respond it's an interesting
01:32:53.200 question I actually just did a talk at Yale Law School about this and one of the
01:32:59.920 really things that's interesting that's going on with younger conservatives is
01:33:03.800 that they are very attuned to this yes that is true there's an extraordinary
01:33:08.240 divide sort of really once you're under 40 certainly once you're under 30 you've
01:33:14.720 just grown up it's such a different context that the Cold War Reagan style
01:33:18.180 conservatism makes no sense and the things we've been talking about here are
01:33:22.000 just much more responsive to the problems you see out in the world yes the
01:33:26.600 funny flip side of it then is that you always get the few progressives who want to
01:33:31.540 sort of come show up and your point about like well like nobody could disagree with
01:33:36.120 this in fact you will have the few progressives who either somehow like think
01:33:43.700 this must be a conversation about gay marriage somehow even if like they can't
01:33:48.500 they're not sure how but they would like they would like it to be or they will just
01:33:55.360 more broadly sort of try to in interpret the principles as by by implication
01:34:03.380 oppressing some out group which is right I mean look that's sort of the core of
01:34:08.880 progressivism it but there's only one template I mean there's other other things
01:34:12.260 going on that don't affect the trans community come on stop well just you know
01:34:17.400 this goes to the question of rights and privileges versus duties and
01:34:20.880 obligations like part of the reason progressives get very uncomfortable with
01:34:26.340 that side of the discussion is because well like wait a minute that you just
01:34:33.280 like infringed on something and so there is a lot of especially a place like
01:34:38.360 Yale Law School there's a lot of sensitivity to like well what like who like who
01:34:42.200 are you infringing on with this view and the answer is like everybody like to be
01:34:51.940 clear I am an equal opportunity infringer on I value liberty and would like to
01:34:57.640 protect it but I am an equal opportunity infringer on all liberty to the extent
01:35:02.480 that it is being claimed to the exclusion of of all of these other things that
01:35:07.760 matter to if we are going to have a society and a civilization at all and it's that is in
01:35:16.720 my mind what what conservatism meant for most of modern western history and it's
01:35:23.840 very exciting that a lot of people are now focused on it again I can't improve on
01:35:29.600 that or in cast thank you this was so much fun amazing thank you
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