The Tucker Carlson Show - Oren Cass： How Trump’s Tariffs Are Reversing the Foreign Policy That Doomed America’s Economy

00:00:00.000 In the next five years, we're clearly going to have some kind of economic reset.

00:00:03.940 People will get poorer.

00:00:05.240 What's your position on Trump's tariffs?

00:00:07.940 Are they working?

00:00:08.880 We should have them, but you should phase them in.

00:00:11.520 There are going to be obstructions.

00:00:13.480 If you are somebody who wants to do business in America, you need to start planning for that.

00:00:18.120 If we want our economy to work well, the way to make a lot of money in America is by making things in America.

00:00:23.640 That's the most interesting thing I've heard in a long time.

00:00:25.500 So you're saying that our economic model was not primarily an economic model, it was an instrument of foreign policy.

00:00:31.180 It was like the centerpiece of the global order, post-war global order. 0.59

00:00:35.000 It wasn't designed to help the United States as much as it was to preserve stability around the world.

00:00:40.280 If there's any group to whom we should be focusing resources on, it is families raising kids who are the ones who have been, I think, most squeezed by these economic changes.

00:00:51.180 We will have to pay for that.

00:00:52.460 And the people who will pay for it are the people who are earning a lot of money and don't have kids.

00:00:57.400 I love that you said that out loud.

00:00:59.340 Orrin Kast, thank you very much for coming.

00:01:23.000 So you've got a book called The New Conservatives, which tries to answer, I think, and we'll speak for you, the question, you know, what is conservatism?

00:01:32.020 What is the Trump movement?

00:01:34.500 Who's on what side?

00:01:35.760 And probably not a better, it's not really an abstract debate anymore.

00:01:40.780 It's like all of a sudden you find yourself, I find myself like on the same side as people with whom I don't think I have anything in common.

00:01:49.080 And so what's your definition of conservative?

00:01:54.460 That's that is the hardest question in conservatism, I think.

00:01:58.100 And, you know, for me, it comes down to a focus on what actually matters and sort of, you know, all of our policy debates are about the means.

00:02:05.820 What what should we do?

00:02:07.760 I think at the end of the day, what defines conservatism and what separates it from progressivism is is the definition of the ends.

00:02:14.800 What what do we actually think is the good life?

00:02:16.900 What are we trying to achieve?

00:02:18.240 And I think for conservatives, there's a a very deep recognition and belief that that the good life is about more than just the individual liberty and autonomy and consumption of stuff.

00:02:31.920 Obviously, we care about those things, too, but that it is much more balanced against a recognition that, you know, the well-being of families and the conditions in which we're raising the next generation and the strength of our communities, ultimately the strength of our nation, the ability to carry forward traditions, that that all of those things are equally probably more important to people's actual well-being.

00:02:57.260 And that as we think about what government is for, what public policy is for, those are the things we actually have to have in focus.

00:03:05.100 So paint the picture of what the end result of a well-organized society is.

00:03:11.220 Well, I think first and foremost, it is the family that at the end of the day, everything is oriented toward this question of how do we raise a next generation that is able to do what we have done, hopefully more than we have done to enjoy what we have enjoyed.

00:03:26.260 Hopefully more than we have enjoyed, and that that is a sort of fundamental obligation that we all have.

00:03:33.220 It's not a choice, a consumption choice, right?

00:03:35.780 Some people go to Greece, some people raise the next generation.

00:03:38.960 I mean, as a descriptive matter, it is true, but as a normative matter, as a question of should, that is what should happen and that is what needs to happen.

00:03:49.340 And so the question is, well, okay, what are the conditions in which that can and will happen?

00:03:54.900 We need to have the conditions where young people can see a future for themselves, forming families, being self-sufficient, supporting kids, being able to provide them a good environment.

00:04:06.240 They need to be in communities that have not just, you know, strong institutions and good schools, but also just a basic sense of a common culture and a culture that is going to be a healthy one for kids to grow up.

00:04:22.480 We obviously, therefore, need an economy that provides those kinds of jobs.

00:04:27.400 There need to be good jobs available to anybody who wants to work and is willing to work hard, regardless of what their particular aptitudes and interests are, regardless of where they live, right?

00:04:40.860 The idea that, well, we'll get more growth if everybody moves to a big city is highly corrosive to the idea that we will actually have a world of people raising strong families.

00:04:53.860 And then as you sort of keep zooming out, ultimately, you get out to the level of the nation and you recognize that, you know, at the end of the day, you do have to have a country.

00:05:05.080 A country is not just a market or, you know, an Olympics team.

00:05:11.100 It is actually something with an identity within which people owe obligations to each other.

00:05:16.440 And not everybody is raising kids, but if you're not, you have some obligation to the folks who are.

00:05:23.100 You have some obligation to those kids.

00:05:24.820 And as those kids grow up, they will, in turn, have obligations back to you.

00:05:29.460 And if you can't maintain that structure, and I think a lot of what you see in the modern West is struggles to maintain that structure, things start to fall apart.

00:05:42.920 It sounds like socialism, Warren.

00:05:45.380 No, I'm just kidding.

00:05:46.140 It sounds beautiful, actually.

00:05:47.620 And I should say for people who don't know, I'm not going to give your home address or anything, but you kind of live that.

00:05:52.100 Personally, you live in a smallish town, very far from a city.

00:05:57.440 You have a family.

00:05:58.580 You're involved in the town on, like, an official level.

00:06:04.040 You are living the life that you describe.

00:06:06.740 I try to.

00:06:07.500 And I think it's important at that level because I think that, you know, what I'm describing isn't sort of the ideal that I hope somebody goes and does.

00:06:17.160 I think it is, as I said, sort of that obligation that everybody should feel that they have.

00:06:24.560 And also that I would underscore that people can fulfill in lots of ways.

00:06:28.180 You don't have to live in the middle of nowhere.

00:06:29.760 You can do these things in a city, too.

00:06:32.220 You can do these things with all sorts of jobs.

00:06:34.220 You can do these things in a family where both parents are working, in a family where only one parent is working.

00:06:39.140 But I think a lot of what we need to aspire to, and, you know, the fancy term for it is pluralism, is the idea that having all of those different options is a good unto itself.

00:06:51.940 The fact that people can see that option set and find one that works for them is part of what leads to human flourishing, part of what makes it all work.

00:07:01.120 And one of the things that our markets have pushed against, the market just looks for the most efficient solution.

00:07:09.680 And that might be fine if you're just trying to sort of maximize your GDP growth.

00:07:14.960 But if the most efficient solution is to push everybody into any particular lane, especially the kinds of lanes we've been pushing people into, you don't actually get the outcomes you care about, which is the ability for people to live good lives.

00:07:29.600 It's interesting you use the word obligation, our obligation to others, to our children, to our neighbors, really sort of old-fashioned Protestant talk that I haven't heard in a long time from Protestants or anyone else.

00:07:44.200 It's not a worldview that, like, Ken Griffin, you know, talks about or probably believes in.

00:07:50.220 Where does that – well, why don't we talk about that anymore?

00:07:53.020 Where does that obligation come from, and how do you restore people's sense of it?

00:07:56.980 Well, I think it's common to a lot of religions, right?

00:08:01.320 You're right.

00:08:01.640 There's the Protestant – you know, you certainly find it in Catholic social teaching.

00:08:05.260 Yes.

00:08:05.680 I think you certainly find it in Judaism, which, you know, my reading of it is especially oriented around raising that next generation.

00:08:15.440 And so, you know, not by coincidence do the world's great moral traditions have this embedded.

00:08:23.260 Well, that kind of is the moral tradition, right?

00:08:25.000 Well, yes, that's right.

00:08:26.220 There's a common thread there.

00:08:29.520 You know, I think you don't see it as much today for two reasons.

00:08:33.920 One is that it is constraining, right?

00:08:36.480 The entire premise of obligations and duties as opposed to merely rights and privileges is that there are things that you should be doing even if they are not the thing that is the most fun at that moment in time, even if they are not the thing that you personally want to be doing at that moment in time.

00:08:54.700 Sometimes just because it is the right thing to do and it is, you know, something that is important to the well-being of those around you.

00:09:03.780 A lot of times I think what you find in these moral traditions is that also in the long run, it is good for you, too, that there is a recognition that humans are frail, flawed people.

00:09:17.300 And simply pursuing what the economist would say is optimizing your well-being at every moment in time leads people to choose all sorts of things that are not actually good for them at all.

00:09:28.920 And, you know, that's what I find fascinating about speaking about these kinds of concepts of obligation and duty in the good life is some people get very skeptical of this.

00:09:39.580 They're like, oh, yeah, but, you know, no one's going to choose that when they could just have all this other stuff instead.

00:09:45.340 But you step back and you look at all of the available data and you say, no, no, they will actually be happier if they choose all this stuff.

00:09:52.900 You know, people who are married are happier.

00:09:55.940 People who have kids are happier.

00:09:58.180 People later in life who have done these things live fuller lives overall.

00:10:02.580 They also tend to earn more money.

00:10:04.320 They have whatever it is you actually want to achieve in your life.

00:10:08.980 It is almost certainly the case that making these kinds of decisions will be good for you, too.

00:10:15.240 The problem is just that in the moment when you're 23, it's not necessarily a thing that you're going to choose.

00:10:21.580 That's right.

00:10:21.780 And in a sense, and this goes back to where you started with, you know, what is conservatism?

00:10:27.000 It's a recognition that for people to lead good lives and make good decisions, they need to be operating within this structure.

00:10:35.200 They rely on institutions, their own families, ideally an education system, ideally the broader culture to shape and form them and help them make these kinds of decisions that will benefit them, they themselves in the long run.

00:10:52.000 We're not just asking for fixed bayonet charges, you know, into machine guns.

00:10:58.020 We're talking about things that will be good for them, will be good for those around them, will be good for their own kids.

00:11:04.480 But that we know are not things that they're just automatically going to choose by themselves.

00:11:11.900 And so just, you know, this is the other thing that you just like, well, why aren't we doing this?

00:11:17.280 Part of it is people just don't like being constrained.

00:11:19.080 Part of it is we have adopted this sort of what I call market fundamentalism where economists and their way of thinking have somehow persuaded a lot of people that, no, no, no, just everybody choosing what they think is good for them at every moment with no constraints is actually the way to optimize welfare for themselves, for the nation, for the economy.

00:11:43.420 And that's just not true.

00:12:13.420 You see sort of dying in their condos in South Carolina, leaving nothing to their children or grandchildren.

00:12:20.760 It does seem like things change, those assumptions change with the baby boom.

00:12:24.960 I think that's right.

00:12:26.060 And I think part of the answer is the sort of more skeptical or cynical one that, you know, this generation has not been especially thoughtful and obligation oriented.

00:12:40.420 Man, you ought to join the State Department.

00:12:42.500 That level of diplomacy is awe-inspiring.

00:12:47.160 Many of my friends are boomers, let me say.

00:12:50.960 But I also think part of what we saw happen is that we went through – the boomers lived a life where everything did just seem to work. 0.99

00:13:01.100 Yes.

00:13:01.420 That, you know, if you look – and sorry, I always come back to the economic side of these arguments because I see them sort of infecting our culture.

00:13:10.540 You know, you had these folks like Milton Friedman as a classic example of someone who was sort of making this very public case that literally his best work is called Free to Choose, right?

00:13:20.900 That was the mantra.

00:13:21.900 That was the mantra.

00:13:22.240 And what Americans were experiencing in American society was that this just worked.

00:13:28.220 That because we weren't paying attention to and were instead taking for granted all of that institutional capital we had built up in the American culture, because we were taking for granted that we were the dominant industrial power, you know, far and away ahead of anybody else.

00:13:46.180 Because it felt like, oh, you don't have to worry about these things.

00:13:50.140 You can just leave people free to choose.

00:13:52.280 They will just make these kinds of decisions.

00:13:55.280 You know, investors will just invest in the best things.

00:13:58.320 We will get the best innovation.

00:13:59.680 We will create the good jobs.

00:14:01.560 This is just how things work.

00:14:02.820 The magic hand.

00:14:04.180 Well, this is – right.

00:14:05.560 And this is something I write about a lot, right?

00:14:06.860 Adam Smith, the father of capitalism, had this idea of the invisible hand, which if you go back and look at what he was actually talking about, what he was describing, like literally in the paragraph where he writes about the invisible hand, he has all these requirements.

00:14:21.020 Like if people prefer investing domestically to investing in foreign countries, if people focus on doing the things that will lead to the greatest outcome, you know, the greatest output and most jobs, then the economy will work.

00:14:36.800 And in this generation, just all that got erased.

00:14:39.860 It's actually interesting.

00:14:40.600 In the leading economics textbook, it literally got erased.

00:14:43.400 They just ellipsed it out and just left with the part that the invisible hand leads to this stuff.

00:14:49.320 And so it sounds like a magical force.

00:14:52.300 Well, yeah, I call it magical.

00:14:53.120 It's like the Holy Spirit.

00:14:54.060 Exactly.

00:14:54.740 And this is why I call it market fundamentalism because it sounds like a derogatory term.

00:15:01.240 Obviously, I'm using it somewhat derisively, but it's a descriptive term.

00:15:05.360 It is a fundamentalism just like a religious fundamentalism that misinterprets the original texts and ideas to create this very absolutist, easy-to-live-by framework.

00:15:19.320 Even though it's probably not actually true and probably isn't actually very good for people.

00:15:25.860 And that is the course that the U.S. set itself on and American culture set itself on in a period where things were working well, right?

00:15:36.060 You can get away with it for a while.

00:15:37.620 And then, especially as the Cold War ended, as we sort of moved into this new world, I would say just it went off the rails.

00:15:46.300 And we started making choices in our foreign policy and our economic policy that assumed a whole bunch of things that certainly weren't true anymore, even if they ever had been true.

00:15:57.280 And I think in both our culture and our economy, we're now sort of grappling with the consequences of it.

00:16:04.280 People are watching you, without your knowledge, every time you go online.

00:16:08.920 Sorry to be creepy about it, but it's absolutely true. 0.94

00:16:11.480 Data brokers record all of your activity, everything you do when you turn on your phone, your computer, your laptop.

00:16:18.740 That includes your search logs, everything.

00:16:21.240 And they sell that information to advertisers, scammers, even government agencies.

00:16:26.360 It's not good at all.

00:16:27.460 There's no law against it.

00:16:28.640 They're making a lot of money.

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00:16:33.220 You're a product.

00:16:34.980 They exploit you by stealing your privacy.

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00:18:55.920 Tucker.

00:18:56.160 Yeah, I guess the good news is the consequences are now so obvious and so dire

00:19:01.920 that I don't think anybody really is in favor of continuing to do what we've been doing for the last 50 years.

00:19:08.940 Unfortunately, there are many people who still are.

00:19:12.700 Really?

00:19:13.620 Yes, among those for whom this has all worked, right?

00:19:17.160 Because there is still a class of people, certainly in the United States,

00:19:20.920 if you are highly educated, you know, living in certain regions.

00:19:26.320 Older.

00:19:27.400 Older if, you know, certainly if you are the beneficiary and have all the savings from the golden era.

00:19:33.980 But, you know, there are plenty of people in their 20s and 30s if they got, you know,

00:19:40.020 were in the right place, have the right education, get the right kind of job.

00:19:44.820 Um, they're doing very well and they have immersed themselves in a culture that says,

00:19:53.640 well, we are here because we deserve to be here, right?

00:19:57.680 In our wonderful meritocracy, it is we who are supposed to be the winners

00:20:02.980 and the ones who sort of make the decisions for everybody else.

00:20:06.600 And, uh, let's look at just some economic statistics.

00:20:11.660 Like, our TVs are bigger than ever.

00:20:14.020 We have more stuff than ever.

00:20:16.300 Um, and so, let's keep, let's keep the good times rolling.

00:20:21.560 That's, you know, I, I think there's a lot of people.

00:20:25.180 It's such a small percentage of the country, though.

00:20:27.480 Yes.

00:20:27.960 It's in that position.

00:20:29.560 So, that's what I find baffling.

00:20:31.280 It's like, I mean, of course, famously, life is unfair.

00:20:35.960 It's not exactly clear how real free will is.

00:20:39.180 I mean, there are, like, lots of deep questions that arise when you think about how wealth is allocated.

00:20:44.200 Luck plays a role or providence or whatever.

00:20:46.500 But it's still hard if you're in that percentage that's been benefiting

00:20:52.220 and continues to benefit from the current arrangement.

00:20:54.220 It's hard to understand how you don't look around and think to yourself,

00:20:57.360 this isn't working for, like, the overwhelming majority of people and that's bad.

00:21:02.080 Like, if that doesn't occur to you, what does it say about you?

00:21:06.200 It's a fair question.

00:21:09.020 I guess, you know, one reason I have maybe sympathies strong,

00:21:15.020 but a sense of it is I even look at, you know, my own trajectory going through a lot of these same institutions

00:21:23.500 and kinds of jobs, you know, I ended up working for Mitt Romney's presidential campaign.

00:21:28.920 After graduating Harvard.

00:21:29.960 Yes.

00:21:30.260 Well, actually, I was still in law school at Harvard, was in charge of domestic policy for the Romney campaign.

00:21:37.840 And we started, questions would come in, what are we going to do about the opioid epidemic?

00:21:44.280 And I'm embarrassed to say this.

00:21:47.080 I'm hopping on Google, like, what is an opioid?

00:21:51.340 Like, opium?

00:21:52.680 I mean, I literally had no idea.

00:21:54.980 And at that point, it had already been the deadliest drug epidemic in American, you know,

00:21:59.840 probably for going on a decade at that point.

00:22:03.060 And it was extremely easy to not even know it existed,

00:22:09.280 to have absolutely no contact with or familiarity with those kinds of challenges

00:22:15.420 happening in other parts of the country.

00:22:17.640 It was extremely easy if you had taken your economics class where they tell you that free trade benefits everybody

00:22:24.000 and, you know, maybe you lose a job, but it's okay, you get a better job,

00:22:28.940 to then be working in a big city surrounded by other people of good jobs

00:22:33.440 and just kind of assume that that happened.

00:22:36.420 And I think, you know, one of the really important things about Donald Trump's success

00:22:42.880 is that I do think that represents a point at which you can no longer say,

00:22:48.240 well, you could reasonably be sitting around just not understanding.

00:22:51.640 At that point, I think you face a choice.

00:22:53.580 You either have to recognize,

00:22:56.100 wow, there are some things I did not understand that are serious problems that we need to focus more on,

00:23:02.700 or, and plain people did this, you conclude,

00:23:06.160 wow, I just don't like my country.

00:23:07.620 Obviously, the people must be too racist or xenophobic

00:23:11.880 or just not understand how good they have it and good riddance.

00:23:16.300 And let's be honest, again, you're right, it's a small share of the population,

00:23:20.040 but among those with power and money and influence,

00:23:23.720 it's a large share of the population that even with Donald Trump's success,

00:23:29.280 even now, went in that direction.

00:23:32.780 And they call it, you know, a term, they call it grievance-anomics.

00:23:36.160 If you think there are problems out there that things are not going well,

00:23:40.560 you're just feeding the grievances of those who should take opportunities.

00:23:45.500 Yeah, I just, I think that's a moral crime, that attitude,

00:23:48.080 and I hope the people who have it are held responsible at some point.

00:23:51.960 Sorry, I can't, I have to,

00:23:53.360 I've asked you this before, you've never given me a real answer,

00:23:56.460 so I'm just going to ask you one last time.

00:23:58.780 Given your profile, your life history, the merit badges you collected,

00:24:03.280 the fact you went to Harvard Law School and worked for Mitt Romney,

00:24:05.080 how did you wind up with these views?

00:24:08.340 You're like the only person who, J.D. Vance, okay,

00:24:11.440 but he had a childhood that was different from yours.

00:24:16.200 You, more than anybody I've ever met,

00:24:18.560 like took a path that was not obvious at all,

00:24:20.800 given why did you do that?

00:24:23.820 It's a good question.

00:24:25.220 I don't try to avoid answering.

00:24:27.260 I don't necessarily have a great answer.

00:24:29.420 I think the, if I were to pick two things,

00:24:33.180 one is I ended up sort of hitting all those important checkpoints,

00:24:38.840 but I kind of had a much quirkier upbringing.

00:24:42.820 I mean, I give my parents a lot of credit.

00:24:45.500 They were Americans, but they grew up overseas,

00:24:48.780 met overseas in Israel.

00:24:51.300 And so, you know, met at the American school.

00:24:54.480 My dad lived on a kibbutz.

00:24:56.580 They got married there.

00:24:58.260 And so they moved back to the U.S.

00:25:00.360 I was raised in the U.S.,

00:25:01.700 but with a just sort of different outlook.

00:25:05.760 They hadn't come through that model that we were just talking about

00:25:09.400 in the, you know, in the 60s and 70s.

00:25:11.680 They weren't here.

00:25:13.200 And so...

00:25:13.920 They were growing things?

00:25:15.680 Literally, that's right.

00:25:16.780 My dad was head of irrigation on a desert kibbutz.

00:25:21.140 And so like, pipe, you know, like literally nozzles on pipes.

00:25:26.400 And so, you know, I look back and I realized that

00:25:30.120 I've been incredibly fortunate to have been given at once

00:25:36.240 both a lot of the sort of superficial accompaniments

00:25:43.460 of the standard meritocracy,

00:25:45.380 but also an outlook and set of values that from them

00:25:50.420 really did focus much more on, you know,

00:25:54.220 question one is family and what you're doing there

00:25:57.540 and how you structure a job and a career comes around that.

00:26:01.800 Amen.

00:26:02.420 So on and so forth.

00:26:03.300 Were they religious?

00:26:04.640 No, not especially.

00:26:07.120 You know, I think the...

00:26:08.380 This is something you see a lot.

00:26:13.580 And, you know, the Israeli connection is interesting there.

00:26:15.840 On one hand, it's very religious.

00:26:16.900 There's also just a very strong sort of secular culture

00:26:20.340 that I think exists there.

00:26:24.340 And so I had that.

00:26:26.220 And then the other thing I had,

00:26:27.540 and my grandfather was an extraordinary trial lawyer.

00:26:31.120 And from the age of about four, he, my age of four,

00:26:36.560 he just, whatever I wanted to say,

00:26:38.360 he would just immediately take the other side of it

00:26:40.340 and start arguing with me about it.

00:26:42.860 My first book is...

00:26:44.780 He was willing to argue with a four-year-old?

00:26:46.640 He absolutely...

00:26:47.120 Yes.

00:26:47.440 That was...

00:26:48.160 If that was who was available to argue with,

00:26:51.760 that was who he was going to argue with.

00:26:53.380 My first book is in tributes is in memory of Irv,

00:26:58.420 who always liked a good argument.

00:27:00.200 That was...

00:27:01.460 And I just grew up loving that.

00:27:04.120 And the idea that everything was always up for argument

00:27:06.440 and testing both sides of,

00:27:08.340 I think just left me at every stage

00:27:12.060 reflexively unwilling to accept the...

00:27:15.860 You know, sometimes in a very unhealthy contrarian way,

00:27:18.080 but also in a healthy contrarian way,

00:27:20.840 insisting on arguing about it

00:27:23.100 and pushing on it from all directions.

00:27:25.220 And so, you know, I think those two things

00:27:27.420 then left me kind of moving up

00:27:28.840 through standard Republican conservative politics,

00:27:31.760 but a little bit as an outsider

00:27:34.260 and looking at saying like,

00:27:35.280 well, like, why is that?

00:27:36.920 I'm not sure that makes sense.

00:27:38.120 That's not what I thought we were here to do.

00:27:40.820 I thought conservatism meant

00:27:42.300 the things we've been talking about here,

00:27:44.360 not tax cuts.

00:27:47.740 And that led me down a lot of interesting paths.

00:27:51.580 Well, it led you away from like,

00:27:53.100 everybody in your world.

00:27:55.280 Because, I mean, I've lived here the whole time.

00:27:58.320 The path for conservatives at Harvard Law School

00:28:01.460 is well-trod.

00:28:03.320 Not a huge number,

00:28:04.180 but there have been a lot over the years.

00:28:06.060 And they're all, you know,

00:28:07.700 I'm a socially liberal,

00:28:09.080 but economically conservative.

00:28:10.880 And you literally took the inverse position.

00:28:12.980 I mean, it's like the single most unpopular combination

00:28:17.060 that you could have.

00:28:20.820 Yeah, I don't, I guess that's true.

00:28:23.280 You guess that's true?

00:28:24.920 That's definitely true.

00:28:26.080 Now that you mention it,

00:28:27.560 I do think though,

00:28:30.280 and this has been my experience with all the work that,

00:28:34.200 you know, we've been doing at American Compass

00:28:35.680 over the last five years,

00:28:37.200 which is my organization that sort of works on,

00:28:40.280 okay, what is, you know,

00:28:41.460 what is conservatism?

00:28:42.520 What should it mean going forward?

00:28:45.760 I find that as long as you're willing to

00:28:48.580 sort of engage people in good faith

00:28:52.380 and try to understand what they think

00:28:55.360 and tell them what you think

00:28:56.460 and argue about it.

00:28:58.480 Again, this is back to the,

00:29:00.100 you know, our mantra is

00:29:01.600 intellectual combat with personal civility.

00:29:06.060 Yeah, there are the people who will be like,

00:29:07.460 oh, well, I don't like that.

00:29:08.460 Like, I don't like that person anymore.

00:29:09.920 The vast majority of people

00:29:12.140 are actually really interested in it.

00:29:15.380 And so, you know,

00:29:17.100 I guess it would be interesting to be sitting here,

00:29:19.880 like telling you about the huge personal cost

00:29:21.700 I've paid for doing these things.

00:29:24.320 Frankly, there hasn't been the personal cost at all.

00:29:28.360 It's been very-

00:29:29.260 You did give up a lot of money,

00:29:30.240 just in point of fact, but whatever.

00:29:32.100 Oh, well, certainly to do public policy

00:29:33.940 instead of going and, you know,

00:29:35.680 being in business, whatever.

00:29:36.960 But that's always been,

00:29:38.040 ever since I was a high school debate nerd,

00:29:40.040 I was always, always wanted,

00:29:42.520 like I said,

00:29:42.960 always wanted to be arguing about stuff.

00:29:45.280 So, okay, you managed,

00:29:48.080 I think, to, in the four years,

00:29:50.260 four years that you've-

00:29:51.260 Five years.

00:29:51.760 Five years you've been running it.

00:29:52.840 Okay.

00:29:53.560 To remain pretty civil

00:29:54.720 and people are civil back

00:29:55.740 and like it's all interesting

00:29:56.940 until the tariffs happen,

00:29:59.100 at which point it becomes

00:30:00.420 pretty emotionally charged,

00:30:02.320 I would say.

00:30:02.800 So, what's your position

00:30:06.240 on Trump's tariffs?

00:30:08.200 Are they working?

00:30:09.320 And what kind of response

00:30:11.080 have you received

00:30:11.840 as like one of the best-known

00:30:13.500 tariff proponents?

00:30:16.040 Yeah, it has been a fascinating time

00:30:19.360 since sort of the administration started,

00:30:21.440 especially after Liberation Day.

00:30:24.640 You know, my view is that

00:30:25.840 the direction that Trump

00:30:27.720 and the administration are going,

00:30:28.860 it's exactly the right one.

00:30:30.100 That the willingness to focus

00:30:33.040 on how globalization failed,

00:30:34.960 that free trade isn't real,

00:30:36.420 it has not worked out

00:30:37.300 the way it was promised,

00:30:38.600 we need to move on to something else,

00:30:40.980 is exactly right.

00:30:42.460 The fact that they're willing

00:30:43.440 to acknowledge it has costs

00:30:45.120 and that we should bear those costs

00:30:47.120 is extraordinary.

00:30:49.360 I mean, how long has it been

00:30:50.520 since we had politicians

00:30:51.520 who were actually willing

00:30:52.620 to stand up and say,

00:30:54.380 yes, this isn't just a free lunch.

00:30:56.140 There are actual costs here

00:30:57.760 and we think they're worth it.

00:31:00.100 And I think that's right too.

00:31:02.860 It's such a good point.

00:31:04.800 And it's, the irony of course

00:31:05.880 is it's exactly the, you know,

00:31:08.140 the very important people,

00:31:09.800 very serious people

00:31:10.620 in the newspaper columns and so forth

00:31:12.580 who've been complaining like,

00:31:14.420 oh, we politicians won't do this,

00:31:16.340 they won't be serious.

00:31:17.360 You finally get, you know,

00:31:19.260 President Trump and Secretary Besant,

00:31:21.160 people who are willing

00:31:22.000 to say these things

00:31:23.100 and immediately everybody attacks them.

00:31:25.280 How dare you suggest

00:31:26.440 we should accept any costs? 1.00

00:31:28.040 You know, like look at these fools 0.99

00:31:29.260 saying, you know, 1.00

00:31:30.420 and it's like,

00:31:30.900 no, this is exactly

00:31:32.220 what actual leadership looks like.

00:31:34.340 This is what we need

00:31:35.540 if we are going to get back

00:31:37.680 out of the hole that we've dug.

00:31:39.880 I think that being said,

00:31:41.380 you know, especially when you are

00:31:42.440 doing this kind of thing

00:31:43.400 that does have upfront costs,

00:31:45.120 you're kind of making an investment

00:31:46.740 for a payout down the road.

00:31:48.680 You have to be really careful

00:31:50.140 to keep those costs

00:31:51.380 as low as you can

00:31:52.460 and make sure you're setting yourself

00:31:55.060 for as much of the return

00:31:57.000 as you can.

00:31:58.380 And, you know,

00:31:59.160 I think in some of the sort of,

00:32:01.040 frankly, chaos that we've seen

00:32:02.980 in changes in the policy,

00:32:05.620 in a lot of people

00:32:06.640 not necessarily being clear on,

00:32:08.920 okay, where are we going and why,

00:32:11.900 I think in some cases

00:32:12.760 the costs have been higher

00:32:14.680 than they have to be.

00:32:16.100 And I think it's been

00:32:16.980 really encouraging to see,

00:32:18.760 you know,

00:32:19.160 really after Liberation Day,

00:32:21.320 a bunch of shifts

00:32:22.280 that have improved things.

00:32:23.960 So I'm somebody who thinks

00:32:25.580 tariffs are good,

00:32:27.040 we should have them,

00:32:28.060 but you should phase them in.

00:32:29.980 You should give people time

00:32:31.220 to adjust.

00:32:33.320 And so now we've started

00:32:34.260 doing that, right?

00:32:35.200 Tariffs were paused

00:32:36.040 so we could have negotiations.

00:32:37.740 With China, 1.00

00:32:38.560 they've now come back down a bunch

00:32:40.240 so we can have negotiations.

00:32:41.980 I think what we should have

00:32:42.840 is a very clear commitment

00:32:44.020 that down the road,

00:32:46.260 two or three years out,

00:32:47.320 for the long run,

00:32:49.340 countries that are not

00:32:50.720 playing by the rules,

00:32:51.660 obviously China,

00:32:54.060 you know,

00:32:54.280 countries that are not willing

00:32:55.360 to take a balanced approach

00:32:56.600 to trade,

00:32:57.820 yes,

00:32:58.280 there are going to be tariffs,

00:32:59.300 there are going to be obstructions,

00:33:01.640 and if you are somebody

00:33:03.080 who wants to do business

00:33:03.800 in America,

00:33:04.880 you need to start planning for that,

00:33:06.860 and you need to invest more

00:33:08.520 in America.

00:33:10.300 And going back to Adam Smith

00:33:12.060 and what the paragraph

00:33:12.780 about the invisible hand

00:33:13.900 actually says,

00:33:15.420 if we want our economy

00:33:16.380 to work well,

00:33:17.220 it has to be one

00:33:18.120 where the way to make

00:33:19.340 a lot of money in America

00:33:20.340 is by making things

00:33:22.400 in America.

00:33:25.860 Can we?

00:33:27.120 Oh, yeah.

00:33:28.080 It's one of the saddest things

00:33:29.000 about this country,

00:33:29.620 the country's getting sicker

00:33:30.580 despite all of our wealth

00:33:31.600 and technology,

00:33:33.220 Americans aren't doing well 1.00

00:33:34.720 overall.

00:33:35.320 Obesity,

00:33:35.860 heart disease,

00:33:36.560 autoimmune conditions,

00:33:37.660 all kinds of horrible

00:33:38.520 chronic illnesses,

00:33:39.940 weird cancers,

00:33:40.740 they're all on the rise.

00:33:41.860 Probably a lot of reasons

00:33:42.680 for this,

00:33:43.040 but one of them definitely

00:33:43.860 is Americans don't eat 0.99

00:33:44.980 very well anymore.

00:33:46.260 They don't eat real food,

00:33:47.280 instead they eat

00:33:47.880 industrial substitutes

00:33:49.440 and it's not good.

00:33:51.700 It's time for something new

00:33:52.800 and that's where

00:33:53.240 masa chips come in.

00:33:55.300 Masa has decided

00:33:56.020 to revive real food

00:33:57.100 by creating snacks

00:33:58.400 how they used to be made,

00:33:59.960 how they're supposed

00:34:00.520 to be made.

00:34:00.940 A masa chip

00:34:01.620 has just three

00:34:02.700 simple ingredients,

00:34:03.900 not 117.

00:34:05.380 Three.

00:34:06.280 No seed oils,

00:34:07.180 no artificial additives,

00:34:08.300 just real delicious food

00:34:09.700 and I know this

00:34:10.180 because we eat

00:34:10.660 a ton of them

00:34:11.780 in my house.

00:34:12.580 And by the way,

00:34:12.920 I feel great.

00:34:14.420 So you can still

00:34:15.040 continue to snack

00:34:15.940 but you can do it

00:34:16.700 in a healthy way

00:34:17.380 with chips

00:34:18.160 without feeling guilty

00:34:19.840 about it.

00:34:20.520 Masa chips are delicious.

00:34:21.760 They taste how

00:34:22.180 a tortilla chip

00:34:22.760 is supposed to taste

00:34:23.800 but the thing is 0.84

00:34:24.920 you can hit them 0.97

00:34:25.500 really, really hard 0.96

00:34:26.620 and I have

00:34:27.780 and not feel bloated

00:34:29.260 or sluggish after

00:34:30.520 you feel like

00:34:31.060 you've done something

00:34:31.780 decent for your body.

00:34:33.300 You don't feel like

00:34:33.860 you got a head injury

00:34:34.840 or you don't feel

00:34:35.480 filled with guilt.

00:34:36.960 You feel light

00:34:37.820 and energetic.

00:34:38.500 It's the kind of snack

00:34:39.020 your grandparents ate.

00:34:40.500 Worth bringing back.

00:34:41.480 So you can go to

00:34:41.980 masachips.com

00:34:42.980 masachips.com

00:34:45.680 slash tucker

00:34:46.240 to start snacking

00:34:47.100 get 25% off.

00:34:48.480 We enjoy them.

00:34:49.300 You will too.

00:34:50.380 It's one of the saddest

00:34:51.300 things about this country.

00:34:52.080 The country is getting sicker

00:34:53.020 despite all of our wealth

00:34:54.040 and technology.

00:34:55.700 Americans aren't doing well 1.00

00:34:57.160 overall.

00:34:57.760 Obesity,

00:34:58.300 heart disease,

00:34:59.000 autoimmune conditions,

00:35:00.100 all kinds of horrible

00:35:00.960 chronic illnesses,

00:35:02.380 weird cancers.

00:35:03.180 They're all on the rise.

00:35:04.320 Probably a lot of reasons

00:35:05.120 for this but one of them

00:35:05.920 definitely is Americans

00:35:06.920 don't eat very well anymore.

00:35:08.880 They don't eat real food

00:35:09.720 instead they eat

00:35:10.340 industrial substitutes

00:35:11.900 and it's not good.

00:35:14.220 It's time for something new

00:35:15.260 and that's where

00:35:15.680 masa chips come in.

00:35:17.760 Masa has decided

00:35:18.480 to revive real food

00:35:19.540 by creating snacks

00:35:20.840 how they used to be made,

00:35:22.420 how they're supposed to be made.

00:35:23.400 A masa chip

00:35:24.060 has just three

00:35:25.140 simple ingredients,

00:35:26.340 not 117.

00:35:27.820 Three.

00:35:28.740 No seed oils,

00:35:29.640 no artificial additives,

00:35:30.760 just real delicious food

00:35:32.160 and I know this

00:35:32.620 because we eat

00:35:33.100 a ton of them

00:35:34.240 in my house.

00:35:35.020 And by the way,

00:35:35.360 I feel great.

00:35:36.880 So you can still

00:35:37.480 continue to snack

00:35:38.380 but you can do it

00:35:39.140 in a healthy way

00:35:39.840 with chips

00:35:40.620 without feeling guilty

00:35:42.280 about it.

00:35:42.960 Masa chips are delicious.

00:35:44.200 They taste how

00:35:44.620 a tortilla chip

00:35:45.200 is supposed to taste

00:35:46.240 but the thing is 0.84

00:35:47.360 you can hit them 0.97

00:35:47.940 really, really hard 0.96

00:35:49.080 and I have

00:35:50.240 and not feel bloated

00:35:51.700 or sluggish after

00:35:52.980 you feel like

00:35:53.500 you've done something

00:35:54.220 decent for your body.

00:35:55.660 You don't feel like

00:35:56.300 you got a head injury

00:35:57.300 or you don't feel

00:35:57.940 filled with guilt.

00:35:59.400 You feel light

00:36:00.260 and energetic.

00:36:00.940 It's the kind of snack

00:36:01.460 your grandparents ate.

00:36:02.940 Worth bringing back.

00:36:03.920 So you can go to

00:36:04.420 masachips.com

00:36:05.400 Masa is M-A-S-A

00:36:06.220 by the way

00:36:06.620 masachips.com

00:36:08.120 slash Tucker

00:36:08.680 to start snacking

00:36:09.540 get 25% off.

00:36:10.920 We enjoy them.

00:36:11.740 You will too.

00:36:12.720 The people in charge

00:36:13.960 want you to be weak.

00:36:15.100 It's obvious. 1.00

00:36:16.540 Fat, weak, passive. 0.99

00:36:18.480 Take your pills. 1.00

00:36:20.200 Why do they want this?

00:36:21.160 Because you'll be

00:36:21.500 easier to control.

00:36:22.540 No thanks.

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00:36:24.780 which is a proud

00:36:25.480 American company

00:36:26.600 understand that

00:36:27.440 America can only be strong

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00:36:29.940 and they're working

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00:36:31.940 a stronger country.

00:36:32.780 They've got a new

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00:36:34.180 Creatine is an amino acid

00:36:35.120 produced by your body

00:36:35.880 naturally

00:36:36.360 and it helps people

00:36:37.960 stay mentally sharp

00:36:39.340 and physically fit.

00:36:40.660 Joe Biden probably

00:36:41.320 could have used some.

00:36:42.660 It would have been better

00:36:43.140 than whatever else

00:36:43.660 he was taking.

00:36:44.540 So people like to

00:36:45.180 mock creatine

00:36:46.100 the people in charge

00:36:47.100 the people who want

00:36:47.740 you to be weak

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00:36:57.080 and none of the 0.79

00:36:57.480 synthetic garbage 0.99

00:36:58.380 that infests 1.00

00:36:59.760 so much of what we eat.

00:37:01.300 Again

00:37:01.660 they don't talk

00:37:02.900 about this much

00:37:03.760 a population

00:37:04.500 that is strong

00:37:05.180 clear-minded

00:37:05.700 physically capable

00:37:06.680 is a threat

00:37:07.980 but that doesn't mean

00:37:09.040 you can't be

00:37:09.500 all of those things

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00:37:30.140 Beam is built

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00:37:31.660 of integrity

00:37:32.280 results

00:37:33.300 no BS

00:37:34.040 we strongly

00:37:34.960 recommend it.

00:37:36.460 So for example

00:37:37.220 China

00:37:38.400 I heard the estimate

00:37:41.280 from someone

00:37:41.960 in manufacturing

00:37:42.540 yesterday

00:37:43.080 makes

00:37:44.780 the world's

00:37:45.560 magnets

00:37:45.920 they're used

00:37:48.080 in everything

00:37:49.400 we have about

00:37:53.600 two weeks left

00:37:54.500 supply

00:37:55.080 in the United States

00:37:56.600 trying to cut off

00:37:57.760 all shipments

00:37:58.400 of magnets

00:37:58.840 to the United States

00:37:59.560 how long

00:38:02.680 do we build

00:38:03.000 a magnet plant

00:38:03.700 like what

00:38:04.560 how is that resolved?

00:38:06.040 Yeah

00:38:06.180 these things

00:38:07.660 take time

00:38:08.460 I think it's funny

00:38:09.260 you know

00:38:09.640 you said earlier

00:38:10.300 like well the good news

00:38:11.420 is people are starting

00:38:12.280 to realize how

00:38:13.200 big a mess

00:38:14.520 we've made

00:38:15.160 the other thing

00:38:15.560 I always say

00:38:15.960 is the good news

00:38:16.760 is that we've done

00:38:17.620 it to ourselves

00:38:18.500 which is

00:38:20.140 I guess mixed news

00:38:22.440 but it's good news

00:38:23.860 in that

00:38:24.340 it is policy choices

00:38:25.800 that we made

00:38:26.780 that have led

00:38:27.840 to this situation

00:38:28.720 which means

00:38:30.120 we can make

00:38:30.800 other policy choices

00:38:32.020 you know

00:38:33.640 there are some things

00:38:34.800 if you think back

00:38:35.460 in the 1970s

00:38:36.580 with the oil crisis

00:38:37.540 oil embargo

00:38:38.200 and so forth

00:38:38.840 there was a situation

00:38:40.600 where in

00:38:41.220 in the foreseeable

00:38:42.600 period

00:38:43.100 we just didn't

00:38:44.140 have oil

00:38:44.780 now it turns out

00:38:46.000 we actually

00:38:46.320 did have

00:38:46.840 massive reserves

00:38:47.460 of oil

00:38:47.720 it took

00:38:48.040 technological innovation

00:38:49.140 to access it

00:38:50.140 but at least

00:38:50.880 in the short

00:38:51.480 to medium term

00:38:51.980 you can say

00:38:52.220 like look

00:38:52.520 we just don't

00:38:52.920 have the oil

00:38:53.420 and our economy

00:38:54.520 runs on oil

00:38:55.260 like that's just

00:38:56.240 a sort of

00:38:56.840 geographic reality

00:38:58.220 the problems

00:39:00.000 that we have

00:39:00.660 created with trade

00:39:01.800 are not about

00:39:03.760 actual geography

00:39:05.360 right

00:39:06.400 it's not like

00:39:07.380 oh shoot

00:39:07.800 we can't grow

00:39:08.680 avocados

00:39:09.240 where will we

00:39:09.780 get the avocados

00:39:10.600 from

00:39:10.980 the problems

00:39:12.320 are all a result

00:39:13.440 of our country's

00:39:15.380 decision that

00:39:15.920 we didn't care

00:39:16.780 what we made

00:39:17.520 or whether we

00:39:18.220 made anything

00:39:18.700 at all

00:39:19.180 and other

00:39:20.180 countries

00:39:20.720 China being 0.97

00:39:21.640 obvious

00:39:22.040 but you know

00:39:23.040 it's also

00:39:23.560 Korea and

00:39:24.320 Japan and

00:39:24.900 Taiwan and

00:39:25.520 Germany

00:39:25.860 saying

00:39:26.960 no it's

00:39:27.600 actually really

00:39:28.140 important

00:39:28.680 to what we

00:39:29.680 make

00:39:30.020 and so

00:39:30.380 we are going

00:39:30.980 to be the

00:39:31.260 ones that

00:39:31.640 invest in

00:39:32.180 making it

00:39:32.800 and as a

00:39:33.760 result

00:39:34.020 all of that

00:39:34.940 investment

00:39:35.340 all of that

00:39:35.760 technology

00:39:36.140 went to

00:39:36.500 those places

00:39:37.140 but if we

00:39:38.860 make the

00:39:39.240 other decision

00:39:39.900 if we

00:39:40.700 say

00:39:41.220 no actually

00:39:42.580 we care

00:39:43.540 at least

00:39:43.880 as much

00:39:44.160 as those

00:39:44.500 places

00:39:44.920 we are going

00:39:46.020 to make

00:39:46.260 things here

00:39:46.700 too

00:39:47.120 we certainly

00:39:48.400 we have

00:39:48.940 the natural

00:39:49.320 resources

00:39:49.860 we have

00:39:51.220 the

00:39:51.540 innate

00:39:52.580 skill

00:39:53.020 in the

00:39:53.340 workforce

00:39:53.700 we have

00:39:54.320 the capital

00:39:54.920 we can

00:39:56.600 do it

00:39:56.820 too

00:39:57.060 and

00:39:58.040 you know

00:39:58.640 just a

00:39:59.060 sort of

00:39:59.700 two

00:40:00.860 two really

00:40:01.500 good examples

00:40:02.020 of this

00:40:02.380 one is

00:40:03.460 Reagan

00:40:04.480 actually did

00:40:05.060 this

00:40:05.380 right

00:40:05.580 people

00:40:05.760 oh Ronald

00:40:06.260 Reagan

00:40:06.580 free trader

00:40:07.300 like

00:40:07.740 not true

00:40:08.360 the

00:40:08.800 libertarian

00:40:09.640 Cato

00:40:09.980 Institute

00:40:10.480 when

00:40:10.920 Reagan

00:40:11.140 left

00:40:11.380 office

00:40:11.900 Cato

00:40:12.520 called

00:40:12.740 him

00:40:12.840 the

00:40:12.960 worst

00:40:13.160 protectionist

00:40:13.820 since

00:40:14.080 Herbert

00:40:14.380 Hoover

00:40:14.700 you know

00:40:16.860 especially

00:40:17.520 vis-a-vis

00:40:18.000 Japan

00:40:18.620 Reagan

00:40:19.960 had no

00:40:20.480 patience

00:40:21.000 for the

00:40:21.500 trading

00:40:21.720 relationship

00:40:22.220 as it

00:40:22.540 was

00:40:22.660 working

00:40:23.100 and

00:40:24.080 under

00:40:24.640 threat

00:40:25.040 of

00:40:25.260 tariffs

00:40:25.760 just as

00:40:26.340 Trump

00:40:26.520 is

00:40:26.660 doing

00:40:26.880 now

00:40:27.280 Reagan

00:40:27.600 went

00:40:27.740 to

00:40:27.820 the

00:40:27.940 Japanese

00:40:28.280 and

00:40:28.840 said

00:40:29.380 the

00:40:30.540 way

00:40:30.720 that

00:40:30.840 you

00:40:30.920 are

00:40:31.080 flooding

00:40:31.420 our

00:40:31.840 market

00:40:32.520 with

00:40:32.940 Japanese

00:40:33.320 made

00:40:33.620 automobiles

00:40:34.480 cannot

00:40:34.960 continue

00:40:35.480 and the

00:40:36.620 Japanese

00:40:37.020 not wanting

00:40:38.080 the

00:40:38.260 tariffs

00:40:38.660 said

00:40:39.040 okay

00:40:39.460 we will

00:40:40.300 voluntarily

00:40:41.000 cap

00:40:41.920 how much

00:40:42.600 we import

00:40:43.280 into the

00:40:43.760 United States

00:40:44.420 and we

00:40:45.140 will instead

00:40:45.580 send Honda

00:40:46.320 and Toyota

00:40:46.760 to go

00:40:47.200 invest

00:40:47.600 in the

00:40:48.000 United

00:40:48.200 States

00:40:48.700 and the

00:40:49.520 entire

00:40:50.020 American

00:40:50.400 auto

00:40:50.660 industry

00:40:50.980 in the

00:40:51.220 American

00:40:51.460 South

00:40:51.960 is a

00:40:52.780 function

00:40:53.140 of

00:40:53.520 that

00:40:54.300 of

00:40:54.680 Reagan

00:40:55.480 saying

00:40:56.140 free trade

00:40:57.940 does not

00:40:58.300 work here

00:40:58.880 you need

00:40:59.820 to come

00:41:00.060 invest

00:41:00.380 here

00:41:00.760 and

00:41:01.380 lo and

00:41:01.640 behold

00:41:02.040 American

00:41:02.800 workers

00:41:03.200 can

00:41:03.420 build

00:41:04.000 great

00:41:04.240 cars

00:41:04.700 including

00:41:05.600 Hondas

00:41:05.980 and

00:41:06.120 Toyotas

00:41:06.640 Toyota

00:41:07.080 Camry

00:41:09.080 has more

00:41:09.620 American

00:41:10.060 made

00:41:10.320 content

00:41:10.780 in it

00:41:11.280 than

00:41:12.040 anything

00:41:12.520 coming

00:41:12.800 out

00:41:12.920 of

00:41:13.020 Detroit

00:41:13.400 and

00:41:14.700 that

00:41:15.260 was

00:41:15.460 an

00:41:15.700 extraordinary

00:41:16.240 success

00:41:16.600 really

00:41:16.860 yes

00:41:17.540 because

00:41:18.500 it

00:41:18.680 wasn't

00:41:19.020 just

00:41:19.160 so

00:41:19.280 the

00:41:19.400 first

00:41:19.600 thing

00:41:19.720 that

00:41:19.840 happens

00:41:20.100 is

00:41:20.240 the

00:41:20.380 assembly

00:41:20.820 plant

00:41:21.420 comes

00:41:21.700 over

00:41:22.020 once

00:41:23.400 this

00:41:23.580 is

00:41:23.660 a

00:41:23.760 place

00:41:23.920 where

00:41:24.060 you're

00:41:24.180 assembling

00:41:24.460 well

00:41:24.640 now

00:41:24.740 it

00:41:24.840 makes

00:41:24.960 sense

00:41:25.140 to move

00:41:25.440 the

00:41:25.580 supply

00:41:25.920 chains

00:41:26.260 over

00:41:26.580 now

00:41:27.280 it

00:41:30.760 this

00:41:31.300 is

00:41:31.440 how

00:41:31.600 these

00:41:31.920 countries

00:41:32.220 got

00:41:32.440 everything

00:41:32.780 from

00:41:33.040 us

00:41:33.320 they

00:41:33.520 took

00:41:34.020 the

00:41:34.140 American

00:41:34.460 manufacturers

00:41:35.160 and said

00:41:35.480 come over

00:41:35.880 here

00:41:36.080 instead

00:41:36.460 and it

00:41:37.380 all

00:41:37.520 moved

00:41:37.960 in a

00:41:38.340 case

00:41:38.540 where

00:41:38.700 we've

00:41:38.920 actually

00:41:39.200 said

00:41:39.800 no

00:41:40.120 you

00:41:40.240 have

00:41:40.380 to

00:41:40.480 bring

00:41:40.640 it

00:41:40.760 here

00:41:41.120 that

00:41:42.320 works

00:41:42.580 too

00:41:42.900 and

00:41:43.540 the

00:41:44.020 other

00:41:44.140 great

00:41:44.300 example

00:41:44.560 we're

00:41:44.740 seeing

00:41:44.960 now

00:41:45.220 is

00:41:45.360 with

00:41:45.500 semiconductors

00:41:46.260 right

00:41:46.600 we have

00:41:46.880 what's

00:41:47.060 called

00:41:47.240 the

00:41:47.560 the

00:41:47.820 chips

00:41:48.120 act

00:41:48.600 where

00:41:49.240 we

00:41:49.340 basically

00:41:49.620 said

00:41:50.000 wow

00:41:50.240 it's

00:41:50.380 a

00:41:50.480 huge

00:41:50.700 mistake

00:41:51.200 that

00:41:51.480 America

00:41:52.520 inventor

00:41:53.080 of

00:41:53.200 the

00:41:53.320 semiconductor

00:41:53.880 pioneer

00:41:54.520 of

00:41:54.940 pretty

00:41:55.540 much

00:41:55.680 everything

00:41:56.040 chips

00:41:56.300 related

00:41:56.700 we

00:41:57.420 just

00:41:57.560 said

00:41:57.660 we

00:41:57.760 didn't

00:41:57.940 care

00:41:58.200 we

00:41:58.660 let

00:41:58.820 all

00:41:58.960 go

00:41:59.100 overseas

00:41:59.520 right

00:42:00.320 the

00:42:00.480 reason

00:42:00.680 Taiwan

00:42:01.300 there

00:42:01.820 it's

00:42:02.400 not

00:42:02.520 because

00:42:02.740 Taiwan's

00:42:03.260 beaches

00:42:03.520 are

00:42:03.740 made

00:42:03.900 out

00:42:04.040 of

00:42:04.180 silicon

00:42:04.500 there's

00:42:05.060 nothing

00:42:05.420 special

00:42:06.020 about

00:42:06.340 Taiwan

00:42:06.960 Taiwanese

00:42:08.300 government

00:42:08.740 said

00:42:09.120 we're

00:42:09.840 going

00:42:09.960 to

00:42:10.080 lead

00:42:10.260 in

00:42:10.440 chips

00:42:10.760 and

00:42:11.560 now

00:42:12.080 that

00:42:12.220 the

00:42:12.340 U.S.

00:42:12.540 has

00:42:12.640 said

00:42:12.780 no

00:42:12.920 we're

00:42:13.140 going

00:42:13.260 to

00:42:13.320 lead

00:42:13.480 in

00:42:13.660 chips

00:42:14.000 and

00:42:14.220 Taiwan

00:42:14.600 semiconductor

00:42:15.160 is

00:42:15.760 making

00:42:16.360 60

00:42:17.840 billion

00:42:18.120 now

00:42:18.340 another

00:42:23.320 said

00:42:23.740 the

00:42:24.140 yields

00:42:24.500 coming

00:42:24.820 out

00:42:25.040 of

00:42:25.160 it

00:42:25.300 so

00:42:25.460 basically

00:42:25.680 the

00:42:25.900 quality

00:42:26.320 of

00:42:26.480 the

00:42:26.640 chip

00:42:26.840 manufacturing

00:42:27.460 in

00:42:27.600 Arizona

00:42:27.960 is

00:42:28.540 already

00:42:28.980 better

00:42:29.680 than

00:42:29.880 in

00:42:30.080 Taiwan

00:42:30.380 so

00:42:31.600 we

00:42:32.100 can

00:42:32.260 do

00:42:32.440 it

00:42:32.620 but

00:42:32.820 it's

00:42:32.960 a

00:42:33.100 policy

00:42:33.440 choice

00:42:33.900 of

00:42:34.140 whether

00:42:34.560 we

00:42:34.740 care

00:42:34.920 and

00:42:35.040 whether

00:42:35.180 we're

00:42:35.340 going

00:42:35.560 to

00:42:35.720 do

00:42:35.860 it

00:42:36.120 so

00:42:37.140 you

00:42:38.520 know

00:42:38.620 we

00:42:38.700 can't

00:42:38.880 make

00:42:39.020 everything

00:42:39.440 what

00:42:42.300 should

00:42:42.560 we

00:42:42.720 make

00:42:43.020 so

00:42:43.380 if

00:42:43.540 you

00:42:43.740 were

00:42:44.020 in

00:42:44.400 charge

00:42:44.820 of

00:42:45.200 reshoring

00:42:45.820 manufacturing

00:42:46.480 to

00:42:46.680 the

00:42:46.780 United

00:42:46.980 States

00:42:47.460 what

00:42:49.020 would

00:42:49.160 be

00:42:49.260 the

00:42:49.400 industries

00:42:49.820 would

00:42:50.020 get

00:42:50.180 priority

00:42:50.640 so

00:42:51.740 I

00:42:51.880 think

00:42:52.180 there

00:42:52.340 are

00:42:52.440 a

00:42:52.640 few

00:42:52.900 that

00:42:53.080 you

00:42:53.200 really

00:42:53.400 give

00:42:53.620 priority

00:42:54.060 to

00:42:54.380 because

00:42:54.660 they

00:42:54.880 have

00:42:55.380 some

00:42:55.680 kind

00:42:56.000 of

00:42:56.080 unique

00:42:56.360 strategic

00:42:56.860 value

00:42:57.420 either

00:42:57.800 for

00:42:58.100 defense

00:42:58.700 purposes

00:42:59.240 or

00:42:59.700 because

00:43:00.040 of

00:43:00.340 the

00:43:00.660 way

00:43:00.860 supply

00:43:01.300 chains

00:43:01.780 grow up

00:43:02.220 around

00:43:02.540 them

00:43:02.860 and

00:43:03.260 so

00:43:03.620 chips

00:43:04.060 is

00:43:04.240 a

00:43:04.340 great

00:43:04.480 example

00:43:04.840 of

00:43:05.040 this

00:43:05.320 critical

00:43:06.100 minerals

00:43:06.560 you

00:43:06.880 mentioned

00:43:07.120 the

00:43:07.300 magnet

00:43:07.780 is

00:43:08.060 a

00:43:08.180 great

00:43:08.380 example

00:43:08.760 of

00:43:08.940 this

00:43:09.280 I

00:43:10.560 think

00:43:10.720 batteries

00:43:11.240 whether

00:43:11.940 it's

00:43:12.100 for

00:43:12.240 electric

00:43:12.500 vehicles

00:43:13.060 for

00:43:13.600 electric

00:43:13.940 grid

00:43:14.160 generally

00:43:14.580 for

00:43:15.000 all

00:43:15.300 sorts

00:43:15.480 of

00:43:15.600 uses

00:43:15.920 is

00:43:16.460 probably

00:43:16.780 one

00:43:17.040 of

00:43:17.160 these

00:43:17.360 things

00:43:17.840 and

00:43:18.560 so

00:43:18.760 there

00:43:19.200 are

00:43:19.740 a few

00:43:19.980 particular

00:43:20.340 things

00:43:20.580 you

00:43:20.660 want

00:43:20.800 to

00:43:20.880 identify

00:43:21.200 and

00:43:21.360 say

00:43:21.460 we

00:43:21.600 have

00:43:21.940 to

00:43:22.060 have

00:43:22.340 this

00:43:22.740 and

00:43:23.200 that's

00:43:23.720 where

00:43:23.840 I

00:43:23.940 would

00:43:24.100 use

00:43:24.480 what's

00:43:25.040 called

00:43:25.180 industrial

00:43:25.600 policy

00:43:26.240 right

00:43:26.680 you

00:43:26.820 literally

00:43:27.520 say

00:43:27.960 we've

00:43:28.640 decided

00:43:28.980 this

00:43:29.220 industry

00:43:29.560 is

00:43:29.720 important

00:43:30.140 and

00:43:30.440 government

00:43:30.920 people

00:43:31.740 call

00:43:32.000 this

00:43:32.160 picking

00:43:32.440 winners

00:43:32.760 and

00:43:32.980 losers 0.98

00:43:33.380 it's 0.99

00:43:34.260 not

00:43:34.440 picking

00:43:34.780 this

00:43:35.140 company

00:43:35.440 wins

00:43:35.740 this

00:43:35.920 company

00:43:36.180 loses

00:43:36.560 but

00:43:37.100 it's

00:43:37.360 picking

00:43:37.740 we

00:43:38.900 actually

00:43:39.200 have

00:43:39.380 a

00:43:39.520 point

00:43:39.700 of

00:43:39.840 view

00:43:40.080 as

00:43:40.460 a

00:43:40.600 country

00:43:40.900 that

00:43:41.120 we

00:43:41.300 want

00:43:41.540 this

00:43:41.740 thing

00:43:42.040 beyond

00:43:43.860 that

00:43:44.180 one

00:43:44.760 of

00:43:44.900 the

00:43:45.000 things

00:43:45.200 that's

00:43:45.460 so

00:43:45.620 great

00:43:46.120 about

00:43:46.380 tariffs

00:43:46.840 it's

00:43:47.060 funny

00:43:47.180 I'm

00:43:47.500 having

00:43:47.680 a lot

00:43:47.940 of

00:43:48.040 fights

00:43:48.300 about

00:43:48.580 people

00:43:48.960 with

00:43:49.080 this

00:43:49.180 right

00:43:49.340 now

00:43:49.600 because

00:43:50.020 in

00:43:50.820 my

00:43:51.100 view

00:43:51.380 tariffs

00:43:51.920 are

00:43:52.120 actually

00:43:52.480 the

00:43:52.660 free

00:43:52.900 market

00:43:53.260 approach

00:43:54.060 a

00:43:54.880 tariff

00:43:55.440 it

00:43:55.960 can

00:43:56.100 be

00:43:56.220 a

00:43:56.340 very

00:43:56.500 broad

00:43:56.940 based

00:43:57.400 policy

00:43:58.940 you're

00:43:59.480 not

00:43:59.660 picking

00:43:59.880 a

00:44:00.000 particular

00:44:00.220 industry

00:44:00.760 you're

00:44:01.240 just

00:44:01.440 saying

00:44:01.920 look

00:44:02.620 we're

00:44:02.920 going

00:44:03.040 to

00:44:03.120 give

00:44:03.240 an

00:44:03.340 advantage

00:44:03.740 to

00:44:04.060 things

00:44:04.300 made

00:44:04.520 domestically

00:44:05.200 so

00:44:06.100 whichever

00:44:06.380 things

00:44:07.020 make

00:44:07.460 relatively

00:44:08.280 speaking

00:44:08.720 the

00:44:08.920 most

00:44:09.180 sense

00:44:09.620 to

00:44:09.880 make

00:44:10.060 domestically

00:44:10.760 will

00:44:11.120 come

00:44:11.300 back

00:44:11.680 the

00:44:12.520 things

00:44:12.840 that

00:44:13.200 relatively

00:44:13.820 speaking

00:44:14.320 make

00:44:14.880 the

00:44:15.080 least

00:44:15.340 sense

00:44:15.840 to

00:44:16.180 make

00:44:16.340 domestically

00:44:16.980 will

00:44:17.380 stay

00:44:17.620 elsewhere

00:44:18.000 we

00:44:18.780 don't

00:44:19.120 have

00:44:19.280 to

00:44:19.420 tell

00:44:19.720 people

00:44:20.120 what

00:44:20.580 to

00:44:20.760 invest

00:44:21.160 in

00:44:21.500 we

00:44:22.120 can

00:44:22.240 just

00:44:22.400 tell

00:44:22.600 people

00:44:23.020 all

00:44:23.640 things

00:44:23.900 equal

00:44:24.220 we're

00:44:24.600 giving

00:44:24.780 a

00:44:24.920 10%

00:44:25.400 advantage

00:44:25.900 to

00:44:26.660 making

00:44:26.900 things

00:44:27.200 here

00:44:27.560 now

00:44:28.780 go

00:44:29.100 and

00:44:30.220 I

00:44:30.460 think

00:44:30.680 that

00:44:31.100 creates

00:44:31.600 a

00:44:31.760 much

00:44:32.240 healthier

00:44:32.800 economic

00:44:34.060 system

00:44:34.720 it's

00:44:35.740 much

00:44:36.060 closer

00:44:36.360 to

00:44:36.520 Adam

00:44:36.720 Smith's

00:44:37.100 invisible

00:44:37.460 hand

00:44:38.100 and

00:44:39.120 means

00:44:39.600 we

00:44:39.760 have

00:44:39.860 to

00:44:39.940 have

00:44:40.060 less

00:44:40.400 regulation

00:44:41.160 right

00:44:41.820 we

00:44:41.980 don't

00:44:42.140 have

00:44:42.300 to

00:44:42.400 go

00:44:42.560 around

00:44:43.040 figuring

00:44:43.420 out

00:44:43.700 what's

00:44:44.460 every

00:44:44.640 other

00:44:44.800 country

00:44:45.100 doing

00:44:45.460 what do

00:44:45.740 we

00:44:45.840 have

00:44:46.000 to

00:44:46.140 correct

00:44:46.560 this

00:44:46.860 way

00:44:47.060 or

00:44:47.180 that

00:44:47.420 way

00:44:47.800 we

00:44:48.960 don't

00:44:49.160 have

00:44:49.440 to

00:44:49.560 say

00:44:49.700 oh

00:44:49.880 let's

00:44:50.200 not

00:44:50.340 forget

00:44:53.900 everybody

00:44:54.100 who

00:44:54.460 isn't

00:44:55.480 succeeding

00:44:55.900 because

00:44:56.180 we

00:44:56.320 don't

00:44:56.500 have

00:44:56.620 this

00:44:56.800 stuff

00:44:57.180 we

00:44:57.940 just

00:44:58.100 say

00:44:58.300 we

00:44:58.700 actually

00:44:58.920 want

00:44:59.160 to

00:44:59.240 have

00:44:59.360 a

00:44:59.480 free

00:44:59.640 market

00:44:59.880 in

00:45:00.020 the

00:45:00.100 United

00:45:00.340 States

00:45:00.880 but

00:45:01.640 it

00:45:01.960 has

00:45:02.260 to

00:45:02.380 be

00:45:02.520 one

00:45:02.780 that

00:45:03.080 makes

00:45:03.600 things

00:45:04.120 and

00:45:04.700 so

00:45:05.100 we

00:45:05.780 hereby

00:45:06.120 give

00:45:06.320 an

00:45:06.440 advantage

00:45:06.820 to

00:45:07.360 whoever

00:45:07.740 wants

00:45:08.020 to

00:45:08.140 make

00:45:08.280 something

00:45:08.520 here

00:45:08.880 and

00:45:09.260 then

00:45:09.540 as

00:45:10.700 the

00:45:11.240 Chinese

00:45:11.520 would

00:45:11.720 say

00:45:12.000 let

00:45:12.300 the

00:45:12.840 flowers

00:45:13.220 bloom

00:45:13.600 why

00:45:15.260 is

00:45:15.420 that

00:45:15.520 so

00:45:15.700 hard

00:45:15.860 to

00:45:16.040 do

00:45:16.240 that

00:45:16.440 seems

00:45:16.860 pretty

00:45:17.760 straightforward

00:45:18.200 I

00:45:19.000 would

00:45:19.140 imagine

00:45:23.900 which

00:45:24.080 that

00:45:24.260 gets

00:45:24.460 done

00:45:24.680 and

00:45:24.820 why

00:45:24.980 hasn't

00:45:25.300 it

00:45:25.420 been

00:45:25.640 well

00:45:27.020 the

00:45:27.340 reason

00:45:27.860 it

00:45:28.220 hasn't

00:45:28.780 been

00:45:28.960 is

00:45:29.140 because

00:45:29.700 our

00:45:30.180 point

00:45:30.540 of

00:45:30.700 view

00:45:30.820 was

00:45:31.040 that

00:45:31.340 nothing

00:45:31.960 that

00:45:32.160 I

00:45:32.280 just

00:45:32.440 said

00:45:32.600 was

00:45:32.780 true

00:45:33.140 right

00:45:34.080 our

00:45:34.240 point

00:45:34.420 of

00:45:34.520 view

00:45:34.640 in

00:45:35.520 terms

00:45:35.700 of

00:45:35.820 the

00:45:35.920 underlying

00:45:36.180 assumptions

00:45:36.660 our

00:45:36.980 point

00:45:37.160 of

00:45:37.260 view

00:45:37.360 was

00:45:37.480 that

00:45:37.600 making

00:45:37.820 things

00:45:38.180 doesn't

00:45:38.600 matter

00:45:38.940 there's

00:45:39.700 a

00:45:39.840 very

00:45:40.060 famous

00:45:40.500 quote

00:45:41.080 attributed

00:45:41.560 to

00:45:41.880 Michael

00:45:42.220 Boskin

00:45:42.760 who

00:45:43.120 was

00:45:43.380 the

00:45:43.760 George

00:45:44.480 H.W.

00:45:45.140 Bush's

00:45:45.560 chief

00:45:45.840 economic

00:45:46.240 advisor

00:45:46.720 he

00:45:47.640 literally

00:45:53.900 theory

00:45:54.460 then

00:45:55.340 yeah

00:45:56.320 who

00:45:56.580 cares

00:45:57.080 if

00:45:57.560 the

00:45:57.780 idea

00:45:58.040 is

00:45:58.220 well

00:45:58.340 anything

00:45:58.580 that

00:45:58.820 China

00:45:59.100 can

00:45:59.340 make

00:45:59.520 more

00:45:59.740 cheaply

00:46:00.420 we

00:46:01.380 want

00:46:01.660 China

00:46:01.940 to

00:46:02.140 make

00:46:02.400 it

00:46:02.700 then

00:46:03.220 why

00:46:03.400 on

00:46:03.540 earth

00:46:03.700 would

00:46:03.880 you

00:46:04.120 put

00:46:04.820 a

00:46:04.940 thumb

00:46:05.080 on

00:46:05.220 the

00:46:05.340 scale

00:46:05.720 to

00:46:06.080 make

00:46:06.240 something

00:46:06.520 here

00:46:06.960 and

00:46:08.040 so

00:46:08.420 that

00:46:09.140 model

00:46:09.760 persisted

00:46:11.360 for a

00:46:11.600 very

00:46:11.740 long

00:46:12.000 time

00:46:12.440 and

00:46:12.660 it

00:46:12.820 persisted

00:46:13.420 partly

00:46:13.860 on

00:46:14.080 the

00:46:14.260 failed

00:46:14.560 on

00:46:14.840 the

00:46:14.980 very 1.00

00:46:15.280 foolish 0.99

00:46:15.540 assumption 1.00

00:46:15.900 that

00:46:16.060 we

00:46:16.160 just

00:46:16.300 don't

00:46:16.480 care

00:46:16.740 if

00:46:16.880 we

00:46:16.980 can

00:46:17.120 make

00:46:17.340 anything

00:46:17.820 it

00:46:18.720 also

00:46:18.960 persisted

00:46:19.460 on

00:46:19.560 the 0.99

00:46:19.700 foolish 0.99

00:46:19.900 assumption 1.00

00:46:20.300 that

00:46:20.600 don't

00:46:20.900 worry

00:46:21.100 these

00:46:21.320 things

00:46:21.540 will

00:46:21.740 sort

00:46:21.980 of

00:46:22.160 self

00:46:22.560 correct

00:46:23.040 and

00:46:23.260 work

00:46:23.460 themselves

00:46:23.820 out

00:46:24.240 so

00:46:24.740 you

00:46:25.540 know

00:46:25.680 the

00:46:26.460 best

00:46:27.020 way

00:46:27.160 I

00:46:27.280 think

00:46:27.420 to

00:46:27.560 see

00:46:27.800 how

00:46:28.180 badly

00:46:29.240 things

00:46:29.540 have

00:46:29.680 gone

00:46:29.920 is

00:46:30.200 our

00:46:30.500 trade

00:46:30.780 imbalance

00:46:31.240 right

00:46:31.820 we

00:46:32.040 get

00:46:32.380 you

00:46:32.780 know

00:46:32.860 we

00:46:33.040 bring

00:46:33.640 in

00:46:33.840 more

00:46:34.000 than

00:46:34.140 a

00:46:34.280 trillion

00:46:34.540 dollars

00:46:34.980 more

00:46:35.260 stuff

00:46:35.640 from

00:46:35.860 overseas

00:46:36.260 every

00:46:36.600 year

00:46:36.780 than

00:46:36.940 we

00:46:37.160 sell

00:46:37.620 to

00:46:37.780 the

00:46:37.900 rest

00:46:38.060 of

00:46:38.200 the

00:46:38.320 world

00:46:38.680 that

00:46:39.780 suggests

00:46:40.180 that

00:46:40.460 trade

00:46:40.760 isn't

00:46:41.000 working

00:46:41.300 very

00:46:48.960 such

00:46:49.160 imbalances

00:46:49.740 won't

00:46:50.500 persist

00:46:50.920 they

00:46:51.140 will

00:46:51.240 take

00:46:51.420 care

00:46:51.560 of

00:46:51.640 themselves

00:46:52.220 you

00:46:53.020 know

00:46:53.140 Krugman

00:46:53.500 I

00:46:53.700 was

00:46:53.840 actually

00:46:54.100 this

00:46:54.720 was

00:46:54.820 a

00:46:54.920 discussion

00:46:55.240 I

00:46:55.940 was

00:46:56.160 part

00:46:56.460 of

00:46:56.560 with

00:46:56.720 him

00:46:56.940 and

00:46:57.060 I

00:46:57.180 said

00:46:57.380 like

00:46:57.620 why

00:46:58.680 do

00:46:58.980 you

00:46:59.060 say

00:46:59.200 that

00:46:59.360 and

00:46:59.440 he

00:46:59.520 said

00:46:59.700 like

00:46:59.860 yeah

00:46:59.980 that

00:47:00.120 was

00:47:00.260 naive

00:47:00.760 like 0.94

00:47:01.240 just

00:47:01.500 sorry

00:47:02.280 we

00:47:02.480 built

00:47:02.820 an

00:47:02.960 awful

00:47:03.180 lot

00:47:03.400 on

00:47:03.520 that

00:47:03.680 idea

00:47:04.060 and

00:47:04.320 that

00:47:04.420 was

00:47:04.520 wrong

00:47:05.040 you

00:47:05.960 see

00:47:06.160 the

00:47:06.340 same

00:47:06.640 thing

00:47:07.140 you

00:47:07.480 know

00:47:07.640 Janet

00:47:08.160 Yellen

00:47:08.520 who

00:47:08.740 was

00:47:08.960 Biden's

00:47:09.320 Treasury

00:47:09.540 secretary

00:47:10.040 has

00:47:10.300 recently

00:47:10.700 said

00:47:11.280 look

00:47:11.460 the

00:47:11.660 standard

00:47:11.980 economic

00:47:12.660 model

00:47:13.360 was

00:47:13.840 if

00:47:14.000 someone

00:47:14.260 will

00:47:14.440 send

00:47:14.680 you

00:47:14.800 something

00:47:15.140 for

00:47:15.480 cheaper

00:47:15.900 you

00:47:16.940 just

00:47:17.160 send

00:47:17.360 a

00:47:17.500 thank

00:47:17.700 you

00:47:17.820 note

00:47:18.120 and

00:47:19.320 she

00:47:20.260 said

00:47:20.600 I

00:47:20.760 would

00:47:20.900 never

00:47:21.060 say

00:47:21.280 that

00:47:21.480 again

00:47:21.840 that

00:47:22.360 that

00:47:22.640 just

00:47:23.000 wasn't

00:47:23.340 true

00:47:23.620 and

00:47:24.460 so

00:47:24.780 one

00:47:25.400 reason

00:47:25.960 we

00:47:26.120 have

00:47:26.220 not

00:47:26.400 done

00:47:26.600 it

00:47:26.720 is

00:47:26.840 because

00:47:26.980 we

00:47:27.160 actively

00:47:27.700 believe

00:47:28.080 things

00:47:28.320 that

00:47:28.440 were

00:47:28.580 wrong

00:47:29.020 and

00:47:29.780 we

00:47:30.200 are

00:47:30.320 fortunately

00:47:30.760 now

00:47:31.140 starting

00:47:31.580 to

00:47:32.060 realize

00:47:33.060 that

00:47:33.340 and try

00:47:33.560 to

00:47:33.700 fix

00:47:33.960 it

00:47:34.220 I

00:47:34.500 would

00:47:34.820 argue

00:47:35.000 that's

00:47:36.220 all

00:47:36.360 clearly

00:47:36.700 true

00:47:36.940 slightly

00:47:37.420 more

00:47:37.740 complicated

00:47:38.260 though

00:47:38.480 because

00:47:38.640 it

00:47:38.800 wasn't

00:47:39.300 just

00:47:39.580 that

00:47:39.740 people

00:47:39.940 believed

00:47:40.540 something

00:47:40.880 that

00:47:41.080 was

00:47:41.220 wrong

00:47:41.660 now

00:47:42.300 demonstrably

00:47:43.000 it

00:47:43.860 was

00:47:44.060 that

00:47:44.360 the

00:47:44.700 people

00:47:45.120 who

00:47:45.560 argued

00:47:46.000 it

00:47:46.180 was

00:47:46.340 wrong

00:47:46.740 weren't

00:47:48.360 just

00:47:48.520 like

00:47:48.680 debated

00:47:49.100 in

00:47:49.360 good

00:47:49.500 faith

00:47:49.700 they

00:47:49.820 were

00:47:49.920 destroyed

00:47:50.340 as

00:47:50.540 people

00:47:50.900 so

00:47:51.580 the

00:47:51.760 two

00:47:52.000 biggest

00:47:52.320 advocates

00:47:52.720 of

00:47:53.060 the

00:47:53.400 position

00:47:53.780 you're

00:47:54.180 describing

00:47:54.560 now

00:47:54.960 were

00:47:55.800 Ross

00:47:56.080 Pro

00:47:56.260 and

00:47:56.440 Pat

00:47:56.640 Buchanan

00:47:57.100 and

00:47:58.140 both

00:47:58.420 of

00:47:58.560 were

00:47:58.660 driven

00:47:59.320 from

00:47:59.660 public

00:48:00.000 life

00:48:00.360 on

00:48:00.520 the

00:48:00.640 basis

00:48:00.940 of

00:48:01.180 claims

00:48:01.500 that

00:48:01.640 they

00:48:01.740 were

00:48:01.880 like

00:48:02.120 not

00:48:02.440 just

00:48:02.620 wrong

00:48:02.900 on

00:48:03.040 economics

00:48:03.420 but

00:48:03.640 like

00:48:03.840 dangerous

00:48:04.680 bad

00:48:04.980 people

00:48:05.360 what

00:48:06.300 was

00:48:06.440 that

00:48:06.820 it's

00:48:07.980 a great

00:48:08.640 point

00:48:09.020 and

00:48:09.380 I'm

00:48:10.180 using

00:48:10.720 Krugman

00:48:11.160 again

00:48:11.400 as an

00:48:11.720 example

00:48:12.000 he

00:48:12.260 actually

00:48:12.540 has

00:48:13.200 a

00:48:13.440 fascinating

00:48:13.880 essay

00:48:14.280 where

00:48:14.500 he

00:48:14.700 says

00:48:15.360 look

00:48:15.840 some

00:48:16.040 people

00:48:16.280 won't

00:48:16.540 understand

00:48:17.040 this

00:48:17.520 stuff

00:48:18.220 that

00:48:18.380 we

00:48:18.480 now

00:48:18.680 know

00:48:19.400 is

00:48:19.580 not

00:48:19.740 true

00:48:20.020 and

00:48:20.760 you're

00:48:20.900 not

00:48:21.060 going

00:48:21.160 to

00:48:21.240 convince

00:48:21.520 them

00:48:21.860 so

00:48:22.060 the

00:48:22.220 best

00:48:22.480 tool

00:48:22.700 you

00:48:22.840 have

00:48:23.080 is

00:48:23.220 ridicule

00:48:23.900 that

00:48:24.920 that

00:48:25.500 if

00:48:25.660 you

00:48:30.940 them

00:48:31.340 but

00:48:31.680 with

00:48:32.100 sufficient

00:48:32.520 ridicule 0.88

00:48:33.400 you 0.84

00:48:33.780 can

00:48:33.960 either

00:48:34.300 essentially

00:48:34.840 force

00:48:35.280 them

00:48:35.420 to

00:48:35.540 stop

00:48:35.760 saying

00:48:36.100 it

00:48:36.340 or

00:48:36.560 make

00:48:37.100 sure

00:48:37.260 that

00:48:37.400 nobody

00:48:37.640 else

00:48:37.940 listens

00:48:38.300 to

00:48:38.500 them

00:48:38.740 and

00:48:38.860 it

00:48:38.960 worked

00:48:39.260 in

00:48:39.600 both

00:48:39.780 cases

00:48:40.180 there's

00:48:40.880 another

00:48:41.080 I guess

00:48:42.200 this is

00:48:42.480 Krugman

00:48:42.820 this is

00:48:43.740 the Krugman

00:48:44.180 segment

00:48:44.500 of the

00:48:44.800 show

00:48:45.080 there's

00:48:45.840 a

00:48:45.960 very

00:48:46.180 famous

00:48:46.740 anecdote

00:48:47.380 Danny

00:48:48.400 Roderick

00:48:48.940 who's

00:48:49.280 an

00:48:49.500 economist

00:48:49.820 at

00:48:50.040 Harvard

00:48:50.320 and

00:48:50.480 one

00:48:50.580 of

00:48:50.660 the

00:48:50.780 very

00:48:51.060 few

00:48:51.320 people

00:48:51.720 who

00:48:52.100 has

00:48:52.580 always

00:48:52.880 been

00:48:53.080 skeptical

00:48:53.440 of

00:48:53.680 globalization

00:48:54.080 tells

00:48:55.260 the

00:48:55.480 story

00:49:00.940 and

00:49:01.380 Krugman

00:49:01.660 writes

00:49:01.920 back

00:49:02.400 you

00:49:02.920 know

00:49:03.100 the

00:49:03.360 substance

00:49:04.000 of

00:49:04.260 this

00:49:04.420 is

00:49:04.540 all

00:49:04.720 fine

00:49:05.120 but

00:49:05.460 you

00:49:05.880 shouldn't

00:49:06.160 do

00:49:06.300 it

00:49:06.400 you

00:49:06.500 will

00:49:06.940 give

00:49:07.220 ammunition

00:49:07.720 to

00:49:07.940 the

00:49:08.060 barbarians

00:49:08.880 hey

00:49:09.520 it's

00:49:09.720 Tucker

00:49:09.920 Carlson

00:49:10.280 you may

00:49:10.540 have

00:49:10.660 noticed

00:49:10.960 that

00:49:11.100 the

00:49:11.220 companies

00:49:11.520 whose

00:49:11.700 products

00:49:12.040 you

00:49:12.180 buy

00:49:12.380 tend

00:49:12.640 to

00:49:12.820 hate

00:49:13.420 you

00:49:13.700 they're

00:49:13.960 controlled

00:49:14.380 by

00:49:14.880 massive

00:49:16.000 multinational

00:49:16.740 corporations

00:49:17.400 and they

00:49:17.840 have

00:49:18.000 all

00:49:18.300 kinds

00:49:18.600 of

00:49:18.720 weird

00:49:18.880 agendas

00:49:19.360 that

00:49:19.760 you're

00:49:19.900 supporting

00:49:20.240 when you

00:49:20.480 buy

00:49:20.600 their

00:49:20.740 products

00:49:21.060 we

00:49:21.480 didn't

00:49:21.860 realize

00:49:22.340 that

00:49:22.580 nicotine

00:49:23.260 pouches

00:49:23.800 which

00:49:23.960 we've

00:49:24.160 used

00:49:24.340 for

00:49:24.540 years

00:49:25.080 were

00:49:25.300 in

00:49:25.600 this

00:49:25.800 category

00:49:26.200 we

00:49:26.460 just

00:49:26.600 want

00:49:26.700 a

00:49:26.800 nicotine

00:49:27.140 pouch

00:49:27.500 and

00:49:27.720 then

00:49:27.820 they

00:49:27.960 lecture

00:49:28.360 you

00:49:28.740 and

00:49:29.100 take

00:49:29.240 the

00:49:29.380 money

00:49:29.560 you

00:49:29.780 give

00:49:30.080 them

00:49:30.360 to

00:49:30.480 support

00:49:30.720 things

00:49:31.080 that

00:49:31.400 you

00:49:31.540 hate

00:49:31.840 so

00:49:32.160 we

00:49:32.300 decide

00:49:32.560 we're

00:49:32.760 going to

00:49:32.880 make

00:49:33.040 our

00:49:33.200 own

00:49:33.420 and

00:49:33.600 we

00:49:33.740 did

00:49:34.120 and

00:49:34.560 it

00:49:34.720 is

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00:50:35.880 so that's

00:50:39.600 what I

00:50:39.880 don't

00:50:40.080 understand

00:50:40.580 so why

00:50:41.240 I mean

00:50:41.560 typically

00:50:42.420 even

00:50:42.820 was a

00:50:43.280 debate

00:50:43.500 between

00:50:43.960 you know

00:50:44.320 the

00:50:44.440 Keynesians

00:50:44.960 and the

00:50:45.700 Milton Friedman

00:50:46.340 people

00:50:46.740 it didn't

00:50:48.160 get to

00:50:48.820 that level

00:50:49.980 of like

00:50:50.960 let's just

00:50:51.540 wreck the 0.99

00:50:52.160 person

00:50:52.500 let's make

00:50:53.000 you know

00:50:53.320 let's make

00:50:53.620 his wife

00:50:53.960 divorce him

00:50:54.560 but it

00:50:55.740 did

00:50:56.140 no but

00:50:56.600 it did

00:50:57.140 on you

00:50:57.920 know

00:50:58.060 I mean

00:50:58.560 it

00:50:58.740 it

00:50:59.660 kind of

00:51:00.120 wrecked

00:51:00.440 Ross Perot's

00:51:01.160 life

00:51:01.500 wrecked

00:51:02.180 Pat Buchanan's

00:51:02.800 life

00:51:03.080 like why

00:51:03.720 were the

00:51:04.520 stakes so

00:51:05.120 high on

00:51:05.560 this one

00:51:05.960 question

00:51:06.440 yeah

00:51:07.140 well I'll

00:51:07.520 give you

00:51:07.760 I'll give

00:51:08.880 you my

00:51:09.200 theory for

00:51:09.760 it

00:51:09.920 because I've

00:51:10.520 tried to

00:51:11.220 go back

00:51:11.480 and find

00:51:11.800 like where

00:51:12.220 did these

00:51:12.540 economic

00:51:12.920 arguments

00:51:13.400 come from

00:51:14.040 when they're

00:51:14.660 clearly just

00:51:15.300 not true

00:51:16.660 and

00:51:18.160 as best

00:51:19.560 I can

00:51:20.040 tell

00:51:20.400 what happened

00:51:21.240 particularly

00:51:21.760 after World

00:51:22.360 War II

00:51:22.880 and this

00:51:23.440 was in

00:51:23.780 this you

00:51:24.260 know

00:51:24.380 era where

00:51:24.840 people

00:51:25.100 kind of

00:51:25.420 were rightfully

00:51:26.020 saying

00:51:26.620 you know

00:51:27.120 never again

00:51:28.060 obviously about

00:51:29.100 the Holocaust 0.82

00:51:29.520 more broadly

00:51:30.280 about World

00:51:30.680 War II

00:51:31.040 we we

00:51:31.780 can never

00:51:32.300 go back

00:51:33.040 to that

00:51:33.500 kind of

00:51:33.900 conflict

00:51:34.460 you have

00:51:34.740 the United

00:51:35.000 Nations

00:51:35.440 you have

00:51:35.800 of course

00:51:36.460 all of

00:51:36.860 these sorts

00:51:37.280 of right

00:51:37.880 like that

00:51:38.280 is everybody's

00:51:39.160 focus

00:51:39.440 and that

00:51:40.940 is when

00:51:41.820 the arguments

00:51:43.500 about free

00:51:44.440 trade actually

00:51:45.000 start to

00:51:45.440 emerge

00:51:45.920 and they

00:51:46.500 emerge

00:51:46.800 not actually

00:51:47.840 primarily as

00:51:48.440 economic

00:51:48.820 arguments

00:51:49.280 they emerge

00:51:50.260 as a

00:51:51.420 sort of

00:51:51.760 new model

00:51:52.420 of a

00:51:52.840 of a

00:51:53.260 global world

00:51:53.880 order

00:51:54.300 and

00:51:56.540 you know

00:51:57.120 one thing

00:51:57.460 people

00:51:57.680 looked at

00:51:57.980 now

00:51:58.320 you're

00:51:58.580 getting

00:51:58.760 to the

00:51:59.060 hard

00:51:59.240 effect

00:51:59.460 well

00:52:00.240 you know

00:52:00.620 one thing

00:52:01.000 people look

00:52:01.580 at you know

00:52:02.400 what happened

00:52:02.680 after World

00:52:03.060 War I

00:52:03.520 the way

00:52:03.840 Germany

00:52:04.180 had been

00:52:04.480 treated

00:52:04.860 the idea

00:52:05.420 that you

00:52:05.880 know

00:52:05.960 sort of

00:52:06.400 holding them

00:52:07.100 down

00:52:07.480 rather than

00:52:07.920 supporting them

00:52:08.600 helps lead

00:52:09.040 to World

00:52:09.320 War II

00:52:09.660 so how are we

00:52:10.860 going to rebuild

00:52:11.360 the world

00:52:11.720 after World

00:52:12.200 War II

00:52:12.680 how are we

00:52:13.160 going to

00:52:13.380 build a

00:52:13.760 sort of

00:52:14.120 inclusive

00:52:14.700 market

00:52:15.160 that

00:52:15.540 builds

00:52:16.020 these

00:52:16.180 companies

00:52:16.640 up

00:52:16.880 how are we

00:52:17.180 going to

00:52:17.360 rebuild

00:52:17.620 Japan

00:52:18.000 as a

00:52:18.300 democracy

00:52:18.700 how are we

00:52:19.220 going to

00:52:19.440 rebuild

00:52:19.700 Germany

00:52:20.040 as a

00:52:20.320 democracy

00:52:20.740 how are we

00:52:21.640 going to

00:52:21.840 combat the

00:52:22.360 Soviet Union

00:52:23.020 which remember

00:52:23.540 is out there

00:52:24.400 now putting

00:52:26.200 out this

00:52:26.820 ideology that

00:52:27.540 says markets

00:52:28.060 just can't

00:52:28.600 work at all

00:52:29.240 we are going

00:52:30.520 to put forward

00:52:31.580 this vision

00:52:32.080 and the

00:52:33.280 best illustration

00:52:34.200 of this

00:52:34.680 is Guy Paul

00:52:36.400 Samuelson

00:52:36.940 Nobel Prize

00:52:38.020 winner

00:52:38.260 sort of

00:52:38.900 writes the

00:52:39.640 standard economics

00:52:40.860 textbook that

00:52:41.540 comes out in

00:52:41.960 1948 right

00:52:43.260 after World

00:52:43.680 War II

00:52:44.120 remember I

00:52:44.920 mentioned the

00:52:45.560 the invisible

00:52:46.040 hand gets

00:52:46.600 ellipsed

00:52:47.240 that's in

00:52:47.900 this textbook

00:52:48.600 and it was

00:52:49.860 the textbook

00:52:50.680 it was

00:52:51.000 the textbook

00:52:51.900 exactly

00:52:52.360 and you

00:52:54.400 you know I

00:52:54.840 have a copy

00:52:55.940 now I went

00:52:56.340 and got like

00:52:56.780 you go through

00:52:58.140 it and you

00:52:58.820 you say okay

00:52:59.540 like well how

00:53:00.180 does he make

00:53:00.520 the argument

00:53:00.800 about free

00:53:01.200 trade and

00:53:02.720 what you find

00:53:03.100 is that he

00:53:03.460 really doesn't

00:53:04.360 he actually

00:53:05.340 acknowledges all

00:53:06.260 the ways that

00:53:07.140 free trade might

00:53:07.640 not work that

00:53:08.780 it might be bad

00:53:09.500 for the United

00:53:10.040 States

00:53:10.620 especially if

00:53:11.180 other countries

00:53:11.820 behave a certain

00:53:12.880 way and he

00:53:14.300 says quite

00:53:15.440 bluntly

00:53:16.080 basically so

00:53:17.840 what that

00:53:19.120 if if we

00:53:20.300 actually want

00:53:21.080 to build

00:53:22.360 this kind of

00:53:22.920 global economy

00:53:23.540 that we all

00:53:24.000 agree we

00:53:24.400 need the

00:53:25.600 United States

00:53:26.140 basically just

00:53:26.880 needs to take

00:53:28.040 the lead and

00:53:28.620 push this

00:53:29.120 forward and

00:53:30.940 wow and

00:53:33.360 look again and

00:53:34.340 and maybe I'm

00:53:35.440 being too

00:53:35.720 charitable again

00:53:36.520 but like I

00:53:37.840 can see why

00:53:38.260 someone would

00:53:38.600 say that in

00:53:39.140 I totally

00:53:40.580 agree and I

00:53:41.460 got to college

00:53:41.920 40 years after

00:53:42.900 that book was

00:53:43.440 written and it

00:53:43.920 was assigned

00:53:44.540 was the first

00:53:45.340 book you read

00:53:45.720 in economics

00:53:46.080 class yeah and

00:53:47.420 and by the way

00:53:48.220 you could even

00:53:48.540 say it was

00:53:48.880 right in 1948

00:53:50.220 that that and

00:53:51.440 this goes to the

00:53:51.940 point about the

00:53:52.400 boomers that the 0.88

00:53:53.200 policy as we

00:53:53.960 pursued it into

00:53:55.020 the 50s and

00:53:55.780 60s did 0.95

00:53:57.900 accomplish a lot

00:53:58.920 of what we

00:53:59.240 wanted it to

00:54:00.060 there's a

00:54:02.320 very famous

00:54:03.560 article in

00:54:04.200 in foreign

00:54:05.220 affairs in

00:54:05.960 1971 where

00:54:07.100 one of the

00:54:07.440 kind of leaders

00:54:08.000 of international

00:54:08.680 economic thinking

00:54:09.740 says quite

00:54:10.980 quite explicitly

00:54:11.900 he says you

00:54:12.680 know the case

00:54:13.300 for free trade

00:54:14.140 has always been

00:54:14.800 primarily a

00:54:15.480 foreign policy

00:54:16.240 case not an

00:54:17.580 economic policy

00:54:18.340 case and then

00:54:19.620 of course you

00:54:20.100 get to that when

00:54:20.760 we get to

00:54:21.100 China right the 0.99

00:54:22.040 entire argument

00:54:22.940 the entire

00:54:24.340 argument for

00:54:24.960 welcoming China

00:54:26.120 to WTO I

00:54:26.980 mean economists

00:54:27.400 said like oh

00:54:28.000 this will create

00:54:28.460 good jobs for

00:54:29.140 Americans and

00:54:29.740 whatever but

00:54:30.260 the actual

00:54:31.160 argument was

00:54:32.340 this is going

00:54:33.240 to fix China 0.90

00:54:34.080 this this is

00:54:35.360 the way we

00:54:35.760 democratize China 0.61

00:54:36.920 we liberalize

00:54:37.760 China and if

00:54:39.600 that happens if

00:54:40.740 China does become 0.97

00:54:41.720 a liberal democracy

00:54:42.620 and we do bring

00:54:43.780 them forward in

00:54:44.300 this way then

00:54:45.680 won't it be

00:54:46.800 wonderful that we

00:54:47.400 have trade with

00:54:48.100 them and and

00:54:49.000 won't it be great

00:54:49.720 that everybody

00:54:50.200 prospers and

00:54:51.300 again that that

00:54:52.180 wasn't like if

00:54:53.760 that had happened

00:54:54.620 that might have

00:54:56.100 been a good idea

00:54:56.740 too the the

00:54:58.480 problem is that

00:54:59.500 in the post

00:55:00.340 cold war era

00:55:01.340 this model fell

00:55:05.680 apart very

00:55:06.300 quickly

00:55:06.680 can I say

00:55:07.440 why have I

00:55:08.640 never heard

00:55:09.000 this before

00:55:09.640 I mean it's

00:55:11.180 like the most

00:55:11.460 interesting thing

00:55:12.000 I've heard in a

00:55:12.460 long time so

00:55:13.020 you're saying

00:55:13.680 that our

00:55:14.460 economic model

00:55:15.140 was not

00:55:15.580 primarily an

00:55:16.440 economic model

00:55:17.060 was an

00:55:17.320 instrument of

00:55:17.740 foreign policy

00:55:18.320 it was part

00:55:19.540 it was like the

00:55:20.220 centerpiece of

00:55:22.160 the global order

00:55:23.000 post-war global

00:55:23.680 order and it

00:55:26.560 wasn't like

00:55:27.140 designed really

00:55:28.280 to help the

00:55:28.980 United States

00:55:29.440 as much as it

00:55:30.060 was to preserve

00:55:30.700 stability around

00:55:31.740 the world

00:55:32.560 yes I don't

00:55:34.120 there are other

00:55:35.100 people who say

00:55:35.460 that I've written

00:55:36.060 an essay about

00:55:36.700 it called the

00:55:37.340 the free trade

00:55:38.140 origin myth

00:55:38.980 that kind of

00:55:39.440 goes through

00:55:40.080 the chapter and

00:55:42.260 verse on all

00:55:42.820 these various

00:55:43.280 the way it was

00:55:43.840 presented to me

00:55:44.680 as someone who

00:55:45.320 was always

00:55:45.760 conservative and

00:55:46.560 for markets and

00:55:47.420 repeated all the

00:55:47.960 slogans and all

00:55:48.540 that and was

00:55:49.320 living in the

00:55:49.780 world where like I

00:55:50.640 didn't know a

00:55:51.080 single person who

00:55:51.820 disagreed talk

00:55:52.560 about a bubble

00:55:53.060 was that free

00:55:56.000 market economics

00:55:56.720 in the way that

00:55:57.480 the United States

00:55:58.140 was doing it

00:55:59.180 was not really

00:56:01.280 an instrument

00:56:01.840 wasn't even a

00:56:02.800 theory it was

00:56:03.580 like a physics

00:56:04.140 principle right

00:56:05.320 it's just it's

00:56:06.040 just true okay

00:56:07.200 so and to the

00:56:08.340 extent that you

00:56:08.660 deviate from it

00:56:09.360 you get punished

00:56:09.980 to the extent that

00:56:10.600 you hue to it

00:56:11.220 you're rewarded

00:56:11.760 because like

00:56:12.920 gravity it's just

00:56:13.640 real right and

00:56:15.040 this is this is

00:56:15.780 the fundamentalism

00:56:16.740 but I just I

00:56:19.040 I had no idea

00:56:20.440 that this was

00:56:21.000 like like the

00:56:21.820 UN

00:56:22.300 something that

00:56:24.420 people who are

00:56:25.120 understandably like

00:56:26.340 horrified by what

00:56:27.140 they've just gone

00:56:27.580 through the world

00:56:28.880 war yeah it was 0.50

00:56:30.620 part of their

00:56:31.300 reaction to that

00:56:32.040 they're like this

00:56:32.820 will prevent that

00:56:33.420 from happening

00:56:33.900 again yeah and

00:56:34.980 and another good

00:56:35.840 example is so if

00:56:37.040 you go back so

00:56:37.620 Samuelson is the

00:56:38.600 key post-world

00:56:39.580 war textbook there's

00:56:40.980 a prior textbook by

00:56:42.420 a guy named

00:56:42.780 Alfred Marshall who's

00:56:44.160 kind of seen as the

00:56:45.200 father of like modern

00:56:46.160 economics right like

00:56:47.160 Adam Smith is like

00:56:48.060 the original guy

00:56:48.960 right Alfred Marshall

00:56:50.160 is a British

00:56:51.440 economist probably

00:56:53.460 the first one

00:56:53.860 actually be called

00:56:54.480 an economist no

00:56:55.420 one would have

00:56:55.760 called Adam Smith

00:56:56.440 an economist back

00:56:57.220 in the day so

00:56:58.720 Marshall writes

00:56:59.480 probably the first

00:57:00.560 economics textbook

00:57:01.440 comes out like 0.98

00:57:02.000 1890 and he

00:57:04.180 says essentially

00:57:05.060 nothing positive

00:57:06.020 about free trade

00:57:06.900 he actually has a

00:57:08.660 whole section you

00:57:10.360 know the comparative

00:57:11.140 advantage is this

00:57:12.020 idea that oh free

00:57:12.980 trade you know works

00:57:13.660 out great for both

00:57:14.340 sides and it's

00:57:17.740 attributed guy named

00:57:18.680 David Ricardo who

00:57:20.100 was a great you

00:57:21.120 know early 1800s

00:57:22.260 economist Marshall

00:57:23.280 has a whole section

00:57:24.200 called the narrowness

00:57:25.420 of the Ricardians 0.57

00:57:27.100 where he specifically

00:57:28.680 says look like 1.00

00:57:29.820 Ricardo has this

00:57:30.880 nice theory has

00:57:32.100 some good math

00:57:32.780 associated with it

00:57:33.900 but it only works in

00:57:35.640 very limited

00:57:36.200 circumstances it

00:57:39.000 makes a lot of

00:57:39.620 sense that Britain

00:57:40.360 as a global empire

00:57:41.260 is promoting it but

00:57:42.540 there are lots of

00:57:43.060 people it doesn't

00:57:43.800 work for the

00:57:44.440 Americans don't 1.00

00:57:45.140 believe it the

00:57:45.940 Germans don't 1.00

00:57:46.520 believe it and he

00:57:47.800 even as this

00:57:48.300 hilarious footnote

00:57:49.080 where he says a

00:57:50.380 lot of these ideas

00:57:51.080 basically seem to be

00:57:52.120 used as a way for

00:57:53.700 like people to put

00:57:55.460 one over on the

00:57:56.080 working class and

00:57:58.880 so like again all of

00:58:00.160 this and then if you

00:58:00.780 even go back to

00:58:01.380 Ricardo like and

00:58:02.540 Adam Smith these

00:58:03.360 guys as I was saying

00:58:04.200 Adam Smith knew the

00:58:04.940 invisible hand didn't

00:58:05.780 work automatically

00:58:06.560 Ricardo when he's

00:58:07.860 talking about free

00:58:08.620 trade he gives the

00:58:10.120 example of how it

00:58:10.820 could work the famous

00:58:11.960 example is England

00:58:13.320 specializes in cloth

00:58:14.720 Portugal specializes in

00:58:16.100 wine and here's all

00:58:19.020 the great ways it

00:58:19.840 works them to trade

00:58:20.680 right there on the

00:58:21.760 same page he says by

00:58:23.420 the way this only

00:58:24.000 works if capital is

00:58:25.120 immobile meaning if

00:58:27.060 the British cloth

00:58:27.720 makers can't pick up

00:58:28.880 and go make the

00:58:29.460 cloth in Portugal it's

00:58:31.160 it's it's right there

00:58:32.640 and he and and then

00:58:34.140 even more he notes and

00:58:35.660 he hopes that never

00:58:36.460 changes that that the

00:58:38.640 idea that basically

00:58:40.200 people were going to

00:58:41.420 be stuck investing and

00:58:42.900 doing business in their

00:58:43.860 own countries was one

00:58:45.760 of the the core

00:58:46.860 premises of any of

00:58:48.320 this working so it's

00:58:49.860 all there and it's

00:58:50.920 only post-world war

00:58:51.960 two that you get

00:58:53.640 partly for the foreign

00:58:54.560 policy reason and then

00:58:56.140 building on that people

00:58:56.920 looking around like

00:58:58.380 Milton Friedman and like

00:58:59.660 Friedrich Hayek and

00:59:00.620 just saying like wow

00:59:01.900 like this is all just

00:59:02.780 working right Friedrich

00:59:03.960 Hayek used this term the

00:59:05.640 the self-regulating

00:59:06.780 market and he actually

00:59:08.400 it's funny that Hayek is

00:59:10.960 one of these

00:59:11.340 libertarians who's now

00:59:12.620 associated with the

00:59:13.880 right of center and

00:59:14.720 people say like oh

00:59:15.340 like conservative

00:59:16.720 economics Hayek has a

00:59:18.280 very famous essay called

00:59:19.380 why I am not a

00:59:20.320 conservative in which he

00:59:21.960 specifically mocks

00:59:22.940 conservatives for not

00:59:24.380 being comfortable enough

00:59:25.520 with the idea that

00:59:26.900 markets are just

00:59:27.560 self-regulating and

00:59:28.860 will automatically

00:59:29.640 deliver good answers

00:59:31.080 and so it there's sort

00:59:33.120 of this weird way where

00:59:34.260 the ideas morph into

00:59:36.080 well it's working well

00:59:37.880 it must work

00:59:38.360 automatically all the

00:59:40.520 way to this

00:59:40.900 fundamentalism where

00:59:41.860 like you said it's

00:59:42.540 just like a law of

00:59:43.840 physics and if you

00:59:44.660 don't understand that 1.00

00:59:45.700 you must be an idiot 1.00

00:59:46.700 and and more 1.00

00:59:47.580 importantly you must be 0.98

00:59:48.420 a heretic and 0.67

00:59:49.400 heretics are the one 1.00

00:59:50.280 thing we cannot have

00:59:51.280 boy I mean well that

00:59:53.000 that's just we watch

00:59:54.040 that happen we watch

00:59:55.360 that happen and I

00:59:56.500 participated in the

00:59:57.380 slander by the way

00:59:58.520 I did I I have my

01:00:01.000 my you know my

01:00:03.200 original college

01:00:04.440 economics paper I've

01:00:05.440 got like here's my

01:00:06.200 two pages and why

01:00:06.900 why free trade is

01:00:07.760 good and I have this

01:00:09.180 great sentence that's

01:00:10.020 like you know while

01:00:11.960 some workers will lose

01:00:13.120 their jobs they will

01:00:13.940 find better ones like a

01:00:16.400 correct correct answer

01:00:18.580 that's what you were

01:00:19.200 supposed to say

01:00:19.940 so what's the reaction

01:00:24.420 to the administration's

01:00:26.980 tariffs in Washington

01:00:28.140 you know my my sense is

01:00:30.360 not positive but you're

01:00:32.260 closer to this well it's

01:00:33.440 interesting Washington is

01:00:34.500 changing I mean you now

01:00:35.620 right the Trump

01:00:36.280 administration I think

01:00:37.260 one of the very cool

01:00:38.260 things about and and

01:00:39.640 most encouraging things

01:00:41.100 about the second Trump

01:00:42.560 administration compared

01:00:43.320 to the first one is

01:00:45.200 that there is now an

01:00:46.120 entire team of people

01:00:47.700 who understand this

01:00:48.880 stuff are aligned on it

01:00:50.240 are carrying it out

01:00:51.200 right in in Trump's

01:00:52.520 first term Bob

01:00:54.600 Lighthizer who was I

01:00:55.920 think you had him on

01:00:56.420 recently oh yeah

01:00:57.180 straight was a 0.98

01:00:57.720 wonderful guy has been

01:00:58.700 incredible mentor to

01:01:00.680 me he wrote a

01:01:02.940 wonderful book called

01:01:04.360 no trade is free that

01:01:06.900 talks about his whole

01:01:07.840 history working on this

01:01:08.700 but especially then you

01:01:09.800 know in the Trump

01:01:10.180 administration how even

01:01:11.680 just within the senior

01:01:12.820 Trump team the I like

01:01:14.900 these ideas that we're

01:01:15.640 talking about were

01:01:16.600 incredibly controversial

01:01:17.800 there were a lot of

01:01:18.640 people who were still

01:01:19.460 like nope free trade you

01:01:20.740 know how little like

01:01:21.480 let's just make sure

01:01:22.240 Trump doesn't disrupt

01:01:23.320 things too much and now

01:01:25.880 you have a team from

01:01:27.080 Scott Besson the treasury

01:01:28.280 secretary Stephen

01:01:29.380 Mirren the head of the

01:01:30.500 council economic

01:01:31.120 advisors Jameson Greer

01:01:32.680 the US trade

01:01:33.320 representative obviously

01:01:34.360 JD Vance Howard

01:01:36.960 Lutnick at commerce all

01:01:38.540 of these people are on

01:01:40.840 the same page that this

01:01:42.000 needs to change and

01:01:43.160 they're going to push

01:01:43.940 forward this new

01:01:45.020 approach and so you

01:01:46.980 know and they have

01:01:47.580 teams that understand

01:01:49.040 that and are working on

01:01:50.140 that and so there you

01:01:51.720 actually have an a whole

01:01:53.340 administration and

01:01:54.380 then an ecosystem of

01:01:55.820 of organizations around

01:01:57.280 them working on this

01:01:58.000 stuff that are

01:01:59.200 supportive in Congress

01:02:01.320 now you know they've

01:02:02.480 been trying to bring

01:02:03.300 these resolutions of

01:02:04.320 disapproval and

01:02:06.200 Democrats vote to

01:02:08.020 disapprove just because

01:02:08.860 they disapprove of

01:02:09.560 Trump even though like

01:02:10.760 isn't that funny that

01:02:12.580 all of a sudden

01:02:13.020 Democrats are now the

01:02:14.080 you know free traders

01:02:16.220 like literally Democrats

01:02:17.240 are now fighting with

01:02:18.100 labor unions over this

01:02:19.220 because the labor

01:02:19.960 unions to a degree

01:02:20.780 like oh yeah like hey

01:02:22.220 this is actually the

01:02:23.460 kind of stuff that we

01:02:24.440 wanted that we were

01:02:25.160 talking about back in

01:02:26.020 the 90s when we were

01:02:26.940 shamed for it and now

01:02:28.400 the Democrats are

01:02:29.120 shaming them for it

01:02:30.060 but the Republican

01:02:31.800 Party generally

01:02:33.960 speaking is quite

01:02:35.420 supportive of it some

01:02:36.680 are mostly supportive

01:02:37.520 because it's the party

01:02:38.580 line but you have a

01:02:39.640 really great set of

01:02:41.440 especially you know

01:02:43.060 younger Republican

01:02:44.320 leaders folks like

01:02:46.440 Josh Hawley like

01:02:47.580 Bernie Moreno like

01:02:48.820 Jim Banks who are

01:02:51.000 are being very

01:02:52.280 outspoken and

01:02:53.060 effective advocates for

01:02:54.300 it and so there

01:02:56.560 unlike in the past

01:02:58.180 there is a Washington

01:02:59.320 that is actually

01:03:00.100 supportive of it and

01:03:01.820 then there's what you

01:03:02.360 would call the blob

01:03:03.200 yes right and the blob

01:03:05.840 obviously hates all of

01:03:07.700 it is the blob is it

01:03:10.480 your sense is the blob

01:03:11.580 getting less powerful or

01:03:13.600 more effective and

01:03:15.000 organized oh I think

01:03:16.800 the blob is getting much

01:03:18.100 less powerful good

01:03:19.300 sense too yeah I think

01:03:21.420 it's partly there is

01:03:24.300 more division within

01:03:25.920 it you know I was

01:03:26.540 describing some of the

01:03:27.300 things that someone like

01:03:28.160 a Janet Yellen or a

01:03:29.260 Paul Krugman has said

01:03:30.380 recently it is starting

01:03:33.660 to dawn on folks that

01:03:34.840 the status quo just is

01:03:36.000 not defensible and it's

01:03:38.340 funny to see the kind of

01:03:39.360 ridicule argument flipped

01:03:40.940 the other way at some

01:03:42.140 point standing up and

01:03:43.420 just being like free trade

01:03:44.280 with China is great is

01:03:46.100 now the position that's

01:03:47.100 subject to ridicule and

01:03:48.560 if there's anyone who

01:03:50.060 cares about ridicule it's

01:03:51.140 the blob it's the blob

01:03:52.720 right and so that's

01:03:54.480 actually very powerful

01:03:55.420 and then I also think

01:03:58.600 there's just a way in

01:03:59.560 which you know one

01:04:00.820 thing that that Trump

01:04:03.100 is demonstrating that

01:04:04.080 folks like Vance and

01:04:04.920 Rubio have been 0.56

01:04:05.560 demonstrated is that the

01:04:07.240 blob just doesn't have 1.00

01:04:08.980 power over you that the

01:04:12.260 blob has been so 0.99

01:04:13.300 discredited by everything

01:04:16.640 it has gotten wrong that

01:04:18.480 when the blob tries to

01:04:20.000 apply its ridicule to a

01:04:21.560 J.D. Vance right to

01:04:23.620 think like forget about

01:04:24.660 them talking to each

01:04:25.200 other to the extent that

01:04:26.020 it's just performative for

01:04:27.720 the rest of America

01:04:28.640 America's not going like

01:04:30.200 oh well this former

01:04:31.560 State Department

01:04:32.220 official you know says

01:04:34.220 says J.D. Vance is

01:04:35.340 wrong I guess J.D. Vance

01:04:36.180 is wrong they're going

01:04:37.300 like like is this the

01:04:39.720 former State Department

01:04:40.520 official who got us into

01:04:42.000 Iraq yeah why are you in 0.93

01:04:43.300 jail the one who screwed 0.83

01:04:44.280 up the Afghanistan

01:04:45.180 withdrawal or the one that

01:04:46.540 like embraced China right

01:04:48.000 like and so I look there

01:04:49.900 are some ways in which

01:04:50.520 it's a huge problem for

01:04:51.800 the country that our that

01:04:53.420 our experts have been so

01:04:55.380 discredited it would be

01:04:56.440 nice to have credible

01:04:57.400 experts but to the extent

01:04:59.460 that it's happened I think

01:05:00.960 it just does not have the

01:05:02.900 same political power that

01:05:04.120 it used to so what it just

01:05:06.340 to go back to your amazing

01:05:08.300 point sorry you've got a

01:05:10.260 dog there oh welcome

01:05:11.240 hey Al he's a tariff

01:05:13.780 supporter I think

01:05:14.900 supporter sorry you were

01:05:16.780 nice to the dog in the

01:05:17.520 way in and and you're

01:05:19.320 marked for life

01:05:19.920 your amazing point that

01:05:23.740 these were post-war

01:05:25.680 institutions self-consciously

01:05:27.300 designed to keep order

01:05:28.960 how has that worked like

01:05:33.440 leaving us and there's

01:05:34.640 really no debate in this

01:05:35.580 room anyway about the

01:05:36.400 effects on the United

01:05:37.000 States look at it it

01:05:38.720 didn't work for us did it

01:05:40.180 work for the world and do

01:05:42.420 we risk conflict by

01:05:45.040 abandoning it it's a

01:05:47.260 really good question I

01:05:48.580 mean there's one so one

01:05:50.000 way in which it obviously

01:05:50.700 did work for the world is

01:05:52.240 that it obviously worked

01:05:54.600 for hundreds of millions

01:05:55.640 of Chinese subsistence

01:05:57.420 farmers yes who have now

01:05:59.300 benefited from China's

01:06:00.540 growth yes and China is the

01:06:03.080 top example but lots of

01:06:05.340 countries have benefited from

01:06:07.040 this system and to the

01:06:09.520 extent that the US was happy

01:06:11.220 to kind of be the consumer

01:06:12.820 for other countries as

01:06:14.540 they developed in some

01:06:16.260 ways we obviously

01:06:16.880 benefited from getting to

01:06:18.140 consume a lot of stuff

01:06:19.640 too so I think it's

01:06:23.540 important certainly to

01:06:24.320 acknowledge that and I

01:06:25.740 think it's even important

01:06:26.360 to say you know good US

01:06:27.560 policy right America first 0.90

01:06:29.320 policy isn't America only

01:06:31.420 policy I think we should

01:06:33.640 want a policy that lifts

01:06:35.000 other people up when we

01:06:35.980 can but I think it's

01:06:37.700 important to be honest

01:06:38.760 about the trade-offs and

01:06:39.780 say you know look if we

01:06:41.940 do X this could have this

01:06:43.360 great effect it's also

01:06:44.200 going to have this cost

01:06:45.160 and who's bearing the

01:06:46.320 cost so there have been

01:06:48.840 those benefits I think

01:06:52.200 during the Cold War era

01:06:54.100 there was obviously

01:06:55.760 enormous benefit in

01:06:57.440 defeating the Soviet Union

01:06:58.920 I mean in that sort of an

01:07:01.240 existential conflict holding

01:07:03.460 together the American

01:07:06.960 alliance making sure that it

01:07:10.380 was seeing broadly shared

01:07:11.580 prosperity within it

01:07:12.860 proving that markets could

01:07:14.700 work better than

01:07:15.860 communism those were all

01:07:18.700 extremely important things

01:07:20.020 and by the way it did work

01:07:21.380 we did win the Cold War I

01:07:23.440 mean that's always the one

01:07:24.380 piece of credit I will give

01:07:26.260 the market fundamentalists as

01:07:27.760 I'm as I'm decrying them you

01:07:30.500 know the reason this became the

01:07:31.880 standard economic thinking on

01:07:33.540 the right of center is

01:07:34.940 because Reagan brought it in

01:07:36.940 Reagan said you know my

01:07:38.880 coalition is this kind of you

01:07:41.160 know free market economic

01:07:42.180 thinking even as he himself

01:07:43.820 was not a fundamentalist on

01:07:45.940 it the more traditional social

01:07:48.100 conservatism and the the Cold

01:07:50.220 War hawks and what actually did

01:07:52.480 all those folks have in common

01:07:53.660 they hated communism and gosh 0.88

01:07:56.920 darn it they they succeeded and 0.92

01:07:59.380 so like it's very important to 0.98

01:08:01.460 give that its due I think where

01:08:03.780 things go so off the rails is

01:08:05.000 once you don't have that

01:08:06.780 existential threat anymore and

01:08:08.720 you see it in the foreign

01:08:09.400 policy context too right where

01:08:10.880 all those hawks are now like

01:08:12.340 well let's go like find other

01:08:13.500 wars to start in ways that are

01:08:15.920 neither conservative nor good

01:08:18.040 for the nation no and the

01:08:20.020 economic folks say like well

01:08:21.460 like great how can we like

01:08:23.040 continue to carry this further

01:08:24.760 well like now we need the WTO now

01:08:27.040 we need free trade with China and

01:08:28.740 on and on and so I think it's it's

01:08:31.280 sort of it's it's the classic

01:08:33.620 pendulum swing from something

01:08:35.480 that you know a world of no trade

01:08:37.800 isn't a good world either some

01:08:39.860 good ideas were introduced they

01:08:41.780 did accomplish some things and

01:08:43.180 then it just sort of kept on

01:08:44.640 swinging all the way to the other

01:08:46.540 side and you know that's where I

01:08:50.260 think we we got stuck and where

01:08:53.440 it's now very helpful to see we've

01:08:55.520 kind of dislodged it and and we're

01:08:57.680 more swinging it back specifically

01:09:00.320 on China and they were open about

01:09:04.640 it in the early 70s when Nixon

01:09:06.580 famously went to China that this is

01:09:08.820 this will be good for the world

01:09:11.020 because it will de-radicalize

01:09:12.640 China which is the height of the 0.99

01:09:14.360 cultural revolution when he said

01:09:15.440 that so pulling back from that and

01:09:19.920 starting a trade war with China

01:09:21.640 does that increase the chance of a

01:09:25.100 conflict a military conflict with

01:09:26.220 China I don't think so I think other 1.00

01:09:29.240 things have increased the chances of

01:09:30.600 conflict right the chance the fact

01:09:32.440 that since the year 2000 China rather

01:09:35.060 than liberalizing has become more

01:09:38.300 authoritarian with more expansionist

01:09:40.340 ambitions with a massive military

01:09:42.480 buildup that makes it more likely

01:09:45.240 that we're gonna have a conflict but I

01:09:47.140 think one of the the key failures of

01:09:49.740 the blob is that it always tends to to

01:09:54.540 live in the world as as they wish it

01:09:56.760 were right rather than the world as it

01:09:58.800 is like I wish we were in a world

01:10:01.040 where China had liberalized that

01:10:02.680 sounds great but we don't I wish we

01:10:06.240 lived in a world where you know the

01:10:07.520 US was still the the superpower that

01:10:10.340 could essentially dictate terms I mean

01:10:13.600 when we did a bad job that was bad but

01:10:15.860 all things considered it would be great

01:10:17.840 for the United States want your country

01:10:19.040 to be on top absolutely but that's just

01:10:22.260 not the world anymore it's not it's not

01:10:24.980 a question of should it's a question of

01:10:26.820 is and so in the world that we have the

01:10:31.680 idea that like well higher levels of

01:10:33.540 trade with China is what's going to

01:10:34.920 diffuse conflict that's just like a

01:10:38.300 cliche that people say like you know

01:10:41.200 who had like really close relationships

01:10:43.380 and trade France and Germany and the UK

01:10:47.400 before World War One and World War Two

01:10:49.400 like this idea that countries that trade

01:10:51.720 don't go to war with each other isn't

01:10:53.720 actually a thing and so you know

01:10:56.540 conversely when we entirely decoupled from

01:10:59.480 the Soviet Union we had a war that stayed

01:11:03.520 cold and so you know I think the United

01:11:07.380 States needs to make its decisions about

01:11:09.820 the economic relationship with China

01:11:11.820 pretty much independently not believe that

01:11:14.900 one choice versus the other is the way

01:11:16.840 that we're going to manage the the

01:11:18.860 foreign relations all things consider I

01:11:21.400 think our best chance of maintaining

01:11:23.000 stable peaceful foreign relations is to

01:11:28.800 make clear that we are first of all is

01:11:31.060 to re-industrialize and make sure that we

01:11:32.760 are capable right of deterring China but 1.00

01:11:37.240 then also to make very clear that we are

01:11:39.180 not going to buy into this gobbledygook

01:11:41.660 that we are going to be realists and we

01:11:43.840 are going to look at the world as it is

01:11:45.660 and one element of that is not to

01:11:48.440 pretend that you can have free trade with

01:11:50.640 an authoritarian communist regime so

01:11:53.380 how does the tariff story end or I don't

01:11:55.860 know end but like in the next five years

01:11:57.640 we're clearly gonna have some kind of

01:11:59.220 economic reset people will get poorer

01:12:02.100 that's kind of guaranteed I think I

01:12:04.040 expect it anyway do then we evolve past

01:12:08.180 that and become more prosperous and more

01:12:10.300 cohesive like how does how does the

01:12:11.620 strand I think we do I think the best

01:12:14.240 way to understand what's going on is to

01:12:16.940 to think about this kind of world order

01:12:20.020 that we've been talking about a bunch and

01:12:21.960 recognize that what we are going through

01:12:24.040 is a transition out of us as sole

01:12:26.380 superpower to guess you would call it a

01:12:29.620 multipolar world where you know China is

01:12:33.060 a kind of peer competitor and adversary

01:12:35.740 secretary of state Rubio has actually

01:12:38.740 been talking about this a lot and all of

01:12:42.300 the assumptions we made we've been

01:12:43.540 talking about the foreign policy case for

01:12:45.500 free trade in a world where the US was

01:12:48.380 the power you could make a case that it

01:12:51.760 was worth accepting these various costs for

01:12:54.260 sort of maintaining that status in the

01:12:57.180 world where it where it is no longer

01:12:58.940 we're we're seeing in real time how it

01:13:01.240 breaks down how you can't just be the

01:13:03.600 benevolent open market when China is

01:13:06.380 now bigger bigger than you yes more

01:13:09.420 technologically advanced in some ways and

01:13:11.800 it it can't go on that way and so you

01:13:15.540 know I think the the tariffs are the sort

01:13:17.960 of tip of the spear of saying that system

01:13:22.500 is over what do we want to have replace

01:13:25.860 it and I think what what the United

01:13:27.760 States should want and what I see the

01:13:29.800 administration pointing toward and

01:13:32.020 pushing toward is basically look we

01:13:34.200 still want to have strong allies we

01:13:36.820 still want to have free trade among our

01:13:38.420 allies right when I was talking about

01:13:39.960 that idea if you have a tariff on the

01:13:42.280 outside you can have a freer market on

01:13:44.780 the inside ideally that's not just the

01:13:47.520 US alone ideally that goes for a set of

01:13:51.020 countries that actually are market

01:13:52.660 democracies and do want to play by the

01:13:55.040 rules and so what the US is doing with

01:13:57.880 the tariffs is saying look the open

01:13:59.840 season everyone does whatever they want

01:14:02.380 and unconditionally gets benefits of

01:14:05.060 American defense American market that's

01:14:08.060 over new system we would like to have

01:14:11.720 strong alliances and relationships and

01:14:13.740 low tariffs but there are now conditions

01:14:17.260 condition one is balanced trade and

01:14:21.060 again that's this idea that free trade is

01:14:23.100 great if you're actually trading stuff for

01:14:25.820 stuff and you're doing it in a way that

01:14:28.060 fits with with the economic model where

01:14:30.240 it's supposed to work and so you know

01:14:32.800 countries that have been basically taking

01:14:35.080 the most valuable industries for

01:14:36.560 themselves and just selling to us that's

01:14:39.360 over piece number two on the defense

01:14:42.960 side everybody needs to pull their own

01:14:46.240 weight and actually lead in their own

01:14:47.880 areas you want to deter Russia Germany go 0.81

01:14:51.100 figure out what you need to do to

01:14:52.420 deter Russia you want to deter China 0.94

01:14:54.180 Japan go figure out what you need to do 0.99

01:14:55.820 don't be looking over your shoulder

01:14:57.360 sort of have I done enough homework to

01:14:59.480 go outside and play like actually get

01:15:01.840 it done and it's actually interesting

01:15:04.140 you see the Trump administration

01:15:05.520 Stephen Mirren who's the chair of the

01:15:08.180 Council of Economic Advisors gave a

01:15:10.560 very good speech talking about what are

01:15:12.780 we actually looking for in these

01:15:13.940 negotiations and he said this is

01:15:16.300 economic and security these are not

01:15:18.600 separate conversations this is a question

01:15:22.260 whether you are in for both and by the

01:15:24.880 way one way you could balance your trade

01:15:26.420 with us would be to buy a whole bunch of

01:15:29.420 American weapons and pay us for the 0.96

01:15:31.360 security services we provide because it

01:15:34.120 ain't gonna be free anymore and then

01:15:36.560 piece three is China is out that more

01:15:40.820 like in the Cold War system you can't have

01:15:43.260 these sort of entangled systems where okay

01:15:46.920 the US doesn't want Chinese supply chains 0.99

01:15:49.140 so they just go set up in Mexico and it

01:15:51.080 comes in through Mexico exactly Mexico

01:15:53.360 you know and this is actually I think

01:15:55.540 why Trump started the way he did with

01:15:58.040 Mexico and Canada Mexico and Canada with

01:16:00.560 the US you should be the core of this

01:16:02.520 alliance we're talking about but you need

01:16:05.560 to understand that it can't work the way

01:16:07.980 it's been working it's going to have to

01:16:10.240 work on these terms and so you see you

01:16:12.740 know someone like Treasury Secretary Scott

01:16:14.500 Besant specifically saying you know Mexico

01:16:16.660 we need to see the same tariffs toward

01:16:19.420 China that we're putting toward China 0.62

01:16:20.840 Canada we need to see that same policy

01:16:23.460 because it can't be a sort of screen

01:16:27.140 door I mean I think it's dawning on a lot

01:16:30.260 of people that China has enormous influence

01:16:33.020 over the political structures of Canada and

01:16:35.680 China particularly Canada in some real way

01:16:41.380 kind of controls Canada so is it is it too

01:16:45.120 late to to bring those two countries

01:16:48.600 yeah I don't I don't think it's too late

01:16:50.820 and you know the funny thing about this

01:16:53.120 sort of set of demands right is that like

01:16:55.600 the the blob gets very uncomfortable with

01:16:57.800 this like oh like you can't you know

01:16:59.600 you'll drive these people into China's arms 1.00

01:17:01.880 and you actually step back and you look at

01:17:04.320 it objectively and you say this isn't some

01:17:06.660 you know exploitative client tribute regime

01:17:11.040 this is a set of demands which by the way

01:17:13.920 we hold ourselves to we we are not asking

01:17:16.980 them to switch to a trade relationship where

01:17:18.740 we get all the advantages we're just asking

01:17:21.180 for a balanced one we're not asking them

01:17:23.120 to pay for our defense we're just asking

01:17:25.360 them to do their fair share we're not asking

01:17:27.940 them to keep China out so we get all the fun 1.00

01:17:30.160 with China we're saying we all need to keep 1.00

01:17:32.240 China out and while there are obviously a lot

01:17:35.280 of people who are very sore at the moment

01:17:38.040 with how they're being treated by the

01:17:39.880 Trump administration anybody who actually

01:17:42.520 steps back and look at looks at this if

01:17:44.380 you are a market democracy that wants to

01:17:46.580 remain a market democracy this is your

01:17:49.440 chance right by the way not only are these

01:17:52.200 not unreasonable demands these things are

01:17:53.560 good for you you should want to be moving

01:17:55.700 to balanced trade you should want to have

01:17:57.300 the will to get China out and the US is 0.98

01:17:59.760 frankly helping you by giving you a way to

01:18:03.360 go in you know in your own domestic

01:18:05.240 politics to say look we can't keep pursuing

01:18:08.700 this compromise relationship partly with

01:18:10.840 China if we don't get real about this we

01:18:16.820 are going to end up outside of the US

01:18:18.980 perimeter and then stuck with China and I

01:18:22.640 think whether it's Canada and Mexico you

01:18:25.520 know Japan India Australia Korea we've

01:18:29.380 already seen with the UK now the start of a

01:18:31.560 deal I think that's sort of a no-brainer I

01:18:35.340 think the one where it's hard is Europe

01:18:36.780 I think Europe is probably more

01:18:39.300 compromised they've shown more willingness

01:18:42.900 already to just take the short-term yeah

01:18:45.700 gain where you see the crazy thing is the

01:18:47.840 the group most opposed to keeping Chinese

01:18:50.360 cheap Chinese cars out is the German

01:18:53.040 automakers oh I know because they want to

01:18:55.360 make five more years of money in China

01:18:57.060 before they get thrown out of there and so 0.98

01:19:00.420 I don't know if Europe has the the

01:19:02.200 civilizational will I don't know if they

01:19:04.720 have the understanding of their interests

01:19:06.820 and because of the way the EU is

01:19:08.300 structured I don't even know if they have

01:19:09.640 the you know this is something that could

01:19:10.940 also pretty much break apart the EU you

01:19:13.780 could have some countries that say well

01:19:15.300 wait a minute we we do want that deal

01:19:18.060 with the US and if if we can't get that

01:19:20.400 through the EU then then the EU doesn't

01:19:23.260 work anymore that's where I think you're

01:19:24.920 going to see the most tension and then

01:19:27.420 you'll see countries that are going to be

01:19:28.500 in China's sphere right Pakistan you know 0.99

01:19:32.340 I think a country like Vietnam is very 1.00

01:19:34.040 interesting question which direction they

01:19:35.780 might go at the end of the day the idea

01:19:38.580 isn't that we sort of are going to be able

01:19:40.420 to get the whole world to gang up on and

01:19:42.440 oppress China the idea is that we're

01:19:44.560 going to be in a world with two powers

01:19:46.400 that have two very different economic and

01:19:48.380 political systems and different spheres of

01:19:50.980 influence boy that is best case if we wind up

01:19:53.860 there and that goes back to your you know

01:19:55.980 the question about like well but isn't

01:19:57.700 this going to start a war or whatever

01:19:59.300 it's like no that this is the best case

01:20:01.500 this is the formula for actually having I

01:20:03.660 think a much more sustainable equilibrium

01:20:05.540 yeah like a peaceful multipolar world

01:20:08.620 yes which by the way we've had for all

01:20:10.720 of history you know up until it ended in

01:20:13.600 1991 well and this is that's that's such

01:20:17.020 an important point that people keep raising

01:20:18.620 this as like like what is this strange

01:20:20.440 unprecedented thing that like the crazy 0.72

01:20:23.520 Donald Trump is doing it's like no no 0.93

01:20:25.580 like first of all like this literally was

01:20:27.980 US policy for the Cold War right and like

01:20:30.820 not to mention this was the way foreign 1.00

01:20:32.440 affairs always worked for however many

01:20:34.520 hundred years before the Cold War it is

01:20:36.280 only people who think the world started

01:20:37.940 in 1991 that don't understand what is

01:20:40.280 the problem though it's like a deeper

01:20:42.920 problem and I hope it's I mean I pray

01:20:44.740 it's resolvable but it's like how do you

01:20:47.000 pull back from hegemony how do you scale

01:20:50.620 back an empire without becoming Great

01:20:53.900 Britain yes well and that goes to your 0.92

01:20:56.400 question about sort of the costs because

01:20:58.260 there obviously are costs here you know

01:21:01.440 some of them are the sort of direct just

01:21:03.600 consumer costs if you were relying on

01:21:05.960 cheap stuff from China you don't want to

01:21:08.000 do that anymore at least in the short run

01:21:10.280 there's going to be higher cost I think in

01:21:13.640 in the in the the medium to not even just

01:21:16.580 like the well someday but you know within

01:21:18.280 the five to ten year window you actually

01:21:21.380 see the benefits overwhelm that you see

01:21:23.960 that if you actually return to an economic

01:21:26.220 model that does encourage domestic

01:21:28.380 investment that does focus on you know

01:21:31.800 prosperity in places that aren't just a

01:21:34.240 few big cities that that is oriented toward

01:21:36.760 creating good jobs for everybody you actually

01:21:41.060 get more growth that way I mean the dirty

01:21:43.540 secret of this post-cold war period so we're

01:21:46.220 supposed to do globalization and efficiency

01:21:48.080 and growth growth just keeps getting

01:21:49.800 slower no I know it investment keeps going

01:21:52.060 down in in manufacturing productivity has

01:21:55.860 actually turned negative which should not

01:21:58.120 be possible in in a capitalist economy we

01:22:01.300 are literally getting worse at making

01:22:02.780 things you need more labor in an American

01:22:05.780 factory today than a decade ago for the same

01:22:08.760 amount of output and so this just isn't

01:22:12.200 working and going back to the kind of economic

01:22:14.700 model that did drive our prosperity for so

01:22:17.340 long I think will be much better the point

01:22:20.840 about what happens after empire that's bigger

01:22:24.600 than the than the economic question if this

01:22:26.820 were just about the numbers and the

01:22:28.640 production I think you you can see a very

01:22:30.620 clear way out the social and political and

01:22:33.600 cultural question of what does the United

01:22:35.260 States become can it return to the idea of a

01:22:40.740 republic as in fact far superior to and more 0.98

01:22:44.580 desirable than an empire on paper that sounds

01:22:48.540 great it shouldn't be a problem at all in

01:22:49.920 practice for you know anyone who studied

01:22:51.980 history knows no one has ever really stuck that

01:22:55.140 landing and and that is the challenge we

01:22:57.420 have why do you think

01:22:59.280 I think probably for a lot of the reasons

01:23:04.440 we're seeing now in our politics which is

01:23:07.120 that for the political class for people who run

01:23:09.760 things going from empire back to republic is

01:23:12.280 not desirable that the entire push toward

01:23:16.360 empire than the push toward sort of globalism

01:23:19.000 is a better end state if you are the emperor

01:23:25.260 if right if if right that if you are that set

01:23:28.860 of people and you know for me ultimately this

01:23:31.900 is kind of the best way of understanding

01:23:33.980 populism because I think everyone agrees

01:23:37.620 something like populism is happening right

01:23:39.840 and it is used often in a very sort of

01:23:44.280 derogatory way like oh populism means you

01:23:46.960 know just telling the masses what they want

01:23:48.920 to hear or ignoring experts or something like

01:23:52.040 this certainly there are plenty of bad forms

01:23:55.000 of populism but I think at its core what

01:23:58.280 particularly in a democracy what what

01:24:00.840 populism means is that you have a situation

01:24:04.540 where the elected representatives and the

01:24:07.940 other elites people with power in the

01:24:09.480 society are no longer fulfilling their own

01:24:12.700 obligation which is to use that power on

01:24:16.060 behalf of everybody that that they in fact

01:24:18.360 have a privilege to be in those positions

01:24:20.580 and with that comes the obligation to rule

01:24:23.780 not just in their own interest but in the

01:24:26.140 interest of of the entire nation and when

01:24:30.060 they lose sight of that when they think well

01:24:32.860 now that we have attained these positions it

01:24:35.020 is for us to do what is best for us the

01:24:38.420 response to that is a populism that's entirely

01:24:40.700 healthy it's to say well if the people who are in

01:24:43.760 charge are not going to act on behalf of

01:24:45.840 everybody we are no longer interested in having

01:24:48.900 those people in charge uh and frankly we will

01:24:52.380 take anybody at all if they at least will start

01:24:55.240 with that commitment that we are here to act on

01:24:57.320 behalf of the broader interest and so I think

01:24:59.860 what's so in you know what's so encouraging about

01:25:02.080 the U.S. situation what you just said is like

01:25:04.780 that's the heart of it right there I think I think

01:25:06.980 it is and I it really dawned on me speaking to uh the

01:25:09.980 faculty of a university recently who were like

01:25:12.300 extremely like they don't understand what's

01:25:14.020 going on at all and you know not talking about

01:25:17.420 elected officials just talking about the

01:25:18.500 university as a university saying look like you

01:25:21.600 guys are a sort of quasi public institution you

01:25:24.460 sort of have a you know operate in the public

01:25:26.500 trust and at some point in the last 20 years you

01:25:30.100 just decided you don't actually have to run this

01:25:32.060 place in the interest of the nation anymore you're

01:25:34.880 going to run it in the like interest of yourself and

01:25:36.980 your friends and your policies are going to be the

01:25:40.040 ones that you like best not the ones that are best

01:25:42.380 for everybody and so like yeah like either you

01:25:47.360 self-correct somehow and when I don't see that

01:25:50.000 happening or this gets done to you and and that is a

01:25:55.020 natural and necessary step and if if there's a reason

01:25:59.100 to be optimistic for the U.S. I think it's to contrast

01:26:02.140 what is going on in the U.S. with what is going on let's

01:26:05.080 say in Europe where for all of our political problems our

01:26:10.340 political system is actually proving itself to be

01:26:12.740 extremely flexible and extremely robust I mean it is

01:26:17.000 actually responding to what people want yes and it is

01:26:21.520 bringing new leaders with different ideas and those P and

01:26:25.080 and it has been painful and messy but the ship is in

01:26:28.800 fact turning you contrast that to what's going on in

01:26:31.360 Europe where you have frankly among the population a very

01:26:34.440 similar set of frustrations and desires and you have that

01:26:38.020 political class at the top ban banning political parties and

01:26:43.320 this is why I think J.D. Vance's speech at the Munich

01:26:46.020 Security Conference was so important and gets exactly to

01:26:49.100 the heart of what is going on of what the Trump

01:26:51.460 administration represents in this respect where he was

01:26:54.300 saying look the biggest problem that that we all have

01:26:57.040 here isn't some external adversary it is our it is our own

01:27:02.020 capacity to actually navigate these challenges and probably

01:27:06.420 better than any country in history for for reasons that is

01:27:09.720 driving the blob the elite absolutely nuts the U.S. is

01:27:13.760 actually showing some ability to respond and if we can pull

01:27:18.260 that off that that would be pretty exciting it'd be amazing and

01:27:22.080 I agree with every word you said and said so so well my last

01:27:26.400 question refers back to what you first said which is about the

01:27:30.540 point of the system which is to encourage and support and sustain

01:27:35.940 healthy families and bright-eyed impressive children who continue on the

01:27:40.260 civilization I don't think any person could disagree with that and thank you

01:27:44.780 for reminding us of it what are specific policy changes in the next five

01:27:51.300 years that could help that it's a great question and I think it's

01:27:56.940 important to think about it expansively because it's great that we now have a

01:28:01.740 quote family policy discussion in the U.S. but a lot of the times it is it is

01:28:07.220 basically a well how big should the child tax credit be exactly discussion and to

01:28:11.780 be clear that is an important piece of it and it this goes back to the boomer

01:28:15.420 discussion as well we have a a system of taxation and distribution in this

01:28:20.740 country that overwhelmingly brings resources to retired people I've

01:28:26.640 noticed and I don't think we should stop giving resources to retired people I

01:28:32.240 think you know the fact that we have Medicare that we have Social Security are

01:28:35.060 are great things but if there's any group to whom we should be focusing

01:28:40.900 resources on it is families raising kids who are the ones who have been I think

01:28:46.620 most squeezed by these economic changes and I don't think we should believe you

01:28:51.520 know oh well if if we if we manage to get them more resources through some sort

01:28:57.220 of child benefit or child tax credit like that's gonna like make people have more

01:29:01.620 kids in the short run right I I don't think that works very well I don't think

01:29:06.580 we want to be in the business of saying like well if we pay you you know if we pay

01:29:09.660 you a little more will you have another kid but what it will do is make the

01:29:14.000 experience of being a family raising kids better and in the culture it will

01:29:20.100 begin to shift what it feels like to be doing that and what people see about

01:29:24.520 people who are doing that not this constant struggle and and getting

01:29:30.120 squeezed but a little more something that is actually viable and desirable and

01:29:34.980 that we all have committed to supporting and so both for the sake of the

01:29:39.620 families and for the sake of the culture I think that does make a big

01:29:43.120 difference I also think it's important to note that we will have to pay for that

01:29:47.460 and the people who will pay for it are the people who are earning a lot of money

01:29:50.860 and don't have kids which is the direction of distribution we should be

01:29:56.560 leaning toward more broadly I think then and this is it's great that we're sort of

01:30:03.080 landing back here love that you said that out loud what well I mean the people who

01:30:08.420 will pay for that are the people who are earning a lot and don't have kids but

01:30:11.340 they're the ones who are constantly saying well I I don't have kids so like

01:30:16.780 why should I have to pay for other people's kids right to which you'd say

01:30:20.040 what because that is your obligation as a citizen of the nation and it is all our

01:30:26.220 obligation to raise the next generation of kids and whether someone is not called

01:30:31.820 to do that whether someone is not able to do that not everybody is going to be

01:30:34.660 doing that but the idea that you can disavow it and say not my problem is just

01:30:40.160 not true I mean there are very specific like math and demographic related reasons

01:30:44.900 it is your problem but you're making a moral case you're making a case about

01:30:48.680 the obligations of citizenship yes and and I would say you know this it's very

01:30:53.140 interesting whenever you talk about an obligation the question is like well where

01:30:55.480 does that come from like well just because like somebody said it and so I do

01:30:59.360 think you have to attach it to something and I think it attaches to two things one

01:31:03.800 is this obligation of citizenship and the idea that if you know insofar as you

01:31:09.360 think you are better off living in America than like having been dropped naked in a

01:31:13.480 jungle somewhere like you didn't you know you didn't cause America to come into 0.98

01:31:20.900 being yourself you are part of this larger system that if you want to benefit

01:31:25.360 from you probably need to contribute to but then also broadly I have crazy ideas

01:31:31.660 the the more specifically you know you as an individual came from somewhere like

01:31:38.080 you're only here because some other people actually chose to take the time and

01:31:43.200 dedicate their life to having and raising you and so you know either you could say

01:31:50.160 like well I'm just gonna like stick that in my pocket and go on vacation to

01:31:53.360 on vacation to Greece or you can't pay it back you can never repay your parents

01:31:59.460 for what they gave you the only thing you can do is pay it forward and do the

01:32:04.540 next thing the the same thing for for the next generation so whether they're yours

01:32:09.180 or not whether they're yours that's absolutely right and and and if they can

01:32:12.980 be yours ideally they will be and and and if everybody says well I'll just support

01:32:19.000 somebody else's obviously it doesn't work but I think that's the sort of dual

01:32:23.940 individual and communal commitment that's that supports all of this and so

01:32:29.840 that's the just you know we talked about the kind of narrow family policy of tax

01:32:34.180 policy and I can see why you're successful because you say these radically

01:32:38.540 countercultural things with a kind of like of course you know just just putting

01:32:44.440 ideas out there for whoever wants to pick them up there so when you go back to

01:32:49.440 Harvard and you say stuff like that how do people respond it's an interesting

01:32:53.200 question I actually just did a talk at Yale Law School about this and one of the

01:32:59.920 really things that's interesting that's going on with younger conservatives is

01:33:03.800 that they are very attuned to this yes that is true there's an extraordinary

01:33:08.240 divide sort of really once you're under 40 certainly once you're under 30 you've

01:33:14.720 just grown up it's such a different context that the Cold War Reagan style

01:33:18.180 conservatism makes no sense and the things we've been talking about here are

01:33:22.000 just much more responsive to the problems you see out in the world yes the

01:33:26.600 funny flip side of it then is that you always get the few progressives who want to

01:33:31.540 sort of come show up and your point about like well like nobody could disagree with

01:33:36.120 this in fact you will have the few progressives who either somehow like think

01:33:43.700 this must be a conversation about gay marriage somehow even if like they can't 0.99

01:33:48.500 they're not sure how but they would like they would like it to be or they will just

01:33:55.360 more broadly sort of try to in interpret the principles as by by implication

01:34:03.380 oppressing some out group which is right I mean look that's sort of the core of

01:34:08.880 progressivism it but there's only one template I mean there's other other things

01:34:12.260 going on that don't affect the trans community come on stop well just you know

01:34:17.400 this goes to the question of rights and privileges versus duties and

01:34:20.880 obligations like part of the reason progressives get very uncomfortable with

01:34:26.340 that side of the discussion is because well like wait a minute that you just

01:34:33.280 like infringed on something and so there is a lot of especially a place like

01:34:38.360 Yale Law School there's a lot of sensitivity to like well what like who like who

01:34:42.200 are you infringing on with this view and the answer is like everybody like to be

01:34:51.940 clear I am an equal opportunity infringer on I value liberty and would like to

01:34:57.640 protect it but I am an equal opportunity infringer on all liberty to the extent

01:35:02.480 that it is being claimed to the exclusion of of all of these other things that

01:35:07.760 matter to if we are going to have a society and a civilization at all and it's that is in

01:35:16.720 my mind what what conservatism meant for most of modern western history and it's

01:35:23.840 very exciting that a lot of people are now focused on it again I can't improve on

01:35:29.600 that or in cast thank you this was so much fun amazing thank you

01:35:33.740 we want to thank you for watching us on spotify a company that we use every day we know the people

01:35:42.300 who run it good people while you're here do us a favor hit follow and tap the bell so you never

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01:35:58.820 watching

The Tucker Carlson Show - May 16, 2025

Oren Cass： How Trump’s Tariffs Are Reversing the Foreign Policy That Doomed America’s Economy

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