The Tucker Carlson Show - Steve Sailer： BLM, Karens, Donald Trump, and What Democrats Don’t Want You to Know about DEI

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00:00:21.020 Welcome to the Tucker Carlson Show.

00:00:22.900 We bring you stories that have not been showcased anywhere else.

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00:00:35.440 Check out all of our content at tuckercarlson.com.

00:00:38.520 Here's the episode.

00:00:39.780 So I got to say, it's a little weird to be sitting across from you in my barn.

00:00:45.100 I was thinking this morning, you're almost like Matt Drudge used to be.

00:00:50.220 Everyone read the Drudge Report starting in the 90s, but no one wanted to admit it in the

00:00:55.580 news business, but everybody read it.

00:00:57.080 But Drudge himself was this mysterious figure.

00:00:59.340 Actually knew him, sort of.

00:01:00.820 I've never met you.

00:01:02.180 Everybody I know on both sides has read you for years.

00:01:05.820 You're not crazy.

00:01:06.920 You're not a bigot.

00:01:08.100 But somehow you became a sort of mysterious outlaw figure that no one was allowed to meet

00:01:12.040 or talk to.

00:01:12.960 Is it weird to be out in public?

00:01:15.580 Yeah, it actually is.

00:01:17.440 As I, you know, for 10 years from 2013 into 2023, you basically couldn't go see Steve

00:01:28.340 Saylor give a speech anywhere. 1.00

00:01:31.500 You know, I was being signed up for conferences.

00:01:35.740 The last speech I gave in 2013 was an analysis of the Obama versus Romney exit polls.

00:01:42.700 It didn't seem all that controversial to me, but for the next decade, every time I'd be

00:01:50.820 invited to a conference, and about six weeks later, I'd get an email going, well, it turned

00:01:55.620 out the SPLC or Media Matters went to the hotel and said that this is just deplorable.

00:02:04.320 And you might find also that the local Antifa, the Black Bloc guys, were thinking about protesting 1.00

00:02:12.460 and, you know, how that can turn into violence and so forth.

00:02:16.000 So they canceled their contract.

00:02:18.240 So, you know, I just kept writing, but all of a sudden the ice started to break up maybe

00:02:26.860 last year.

00:02:27.940 And this year I've been traveling around the country and meeting people who've been reading

00:02:32.460 me for years or just started reading me.

00:02:34.840 It's a lot of fun.

00:02:36.260 I appreciate it.

00:02:37.920 It's just funny, though, because, you know, in a world where there are some wackos and 1.00

00:02:42.180 there are people who advocate violence, you would seem to be maybe the last person who

00:02:47.980 would scare people.

00:02:48.780 I mean, you're effectively an informal academic or social scientist.

00:02:51.860 You're a numbers guy.

00:02:52.720 Yeah.

00:02:52.960 I'm kind of like Bill James, the baseball statistics analyst for the social sciences in

00:02:59.980 the U.S.

00:03:00.680 I've like for three years now, I've been raising a stink about, all right, what was the impact

00:03:08.420 of Black Lives Matter on Black Lives?

00:03:12.140 And as far as I can tell, it's got Black Lives Matter during the two eras of triumph after

00:03:18.020 Ferguson in 2015-16 and then the big one during the Floyd effect, the racial reckoning of the

00:03:25.680 2020s, they've got an incremental 15,000 to 20,000 extra Black lives murdered through

00:03:34.360 incremental homicides versus the baseline or just splattered on the pavement through

00:03:40.980 increased traffic fatalities. 0.97

00:03:43.980 But so all killed by white cops? 0.93

00:03:45.820 No. 1.00

00:03:46.060 Well, the vast majority of Black shooting deaths is at the hands of other Blacks. 1.00

00:03:54.580 There was a, for example, in 2020, there was just an enormous explosion in mass shootings 0.99

00:04:00.700 with at least four dead or wounded at Black social events.

00:04:07.080 This is, you know, we talk about mass shootings a lot, but as the New York Times did a big study

00:04:13.080 in 2016 and concluded that almost 75% of the mass shootings with at least four victims wounded

00:04:24.100 or killed take place in Black-on-Black events, typically Saturday night at the club or a funeral.

00:04:35.080 Some of them are organized crime, very strategic, like in the TV show The Wire,

00:04:41.020 but a lot is just one guy disses another guy and people pull out guns and start shooting.

00:04:47.400 And yet that's very little interest to the Democratic establishment, the need for what I call point-of-use

00:04:57.580 gun control.

00:04:59.280 The Democrats tend to obsess over the need for point-of-sale gun control to keep rednecks out 1.00

00:05:08.020 in the country from buying rifles, legally buying rifles at Walmart.

00:05:14.900 And in truth, what we've seen, it's like in the 1990s into the 2010s in New York City,

00:05:22.740 where people like Giuliani, Bloomberg, and Braddon did a great job of bringing down the murder rate.

00:05:30.140 What really works is point-of-use gun control.

00:05:34.820 You discourage lowlifes from packing their illegal handguns when they go out 1.00

00:05:40.400 because they're more worried about the cops and getting caught carrying an illegal piece.

00:05:47.440 So they leave it up in their grandmother's attic stuffed away.

00:05:53.380 And the fewer people who are carrying guns on the streets in New York City,

00:05:59.260 the less often they pull them out and start shooting and you get this virtuous cycle.

00:06:04.600 But, you know, nobody understands that.

00:06:07.120 So during the Great Awakening of the last decade, and especially during what used to be called

00:06:15.180 the Racial Reckoning before the whole George Floyd thing has pretty much gotten memory hold lately,

00:06:21.060 just huge increases in the black deaths by murder and by car crash.

00:06:27.840 Okay.

00:06:28.400 So can we back up?

00:06:29.520 You said a bunch of different things I want to follow up on.

00:06:31.540 But let's just start at the very beginning.

00:06:33.300 You said the George Floyd thing has been effectively memory hold.

00:06:36.860 Yeah.

00:06:37.060 What was the George...

00:06:39.060 You know, it's been almost exactly four years since that happened.

00:06:42.040 Yeah.

00:06:42.320 Memorial Day 2020, with that, the benefit of, you know, some time to think about it.

00:06:48.740 What was that?

00:06:50.200 What was it?

00:06:54.240 To a large extent, it didn't happen.

00:06:58.660 The follow-on events, such as a huge increase in the murder rate, especially among blacks,

00:07:08.360 the murder rate was 44% more blacks were killed by homicide in 2021 than in 2019, the year before.

00:07:21.780 And 39% more blacks died in car crashes in 2021 than in 2019.

00:07:27.780 Car crashes.

00:07:28.480 Yeah.

00:07:29.120 It all ties together because when the establishment, as they did after George Floyd's death, said,

00:07:37.660 okay, here's the biggest problem in America, even bigger than COVID for the moment,

00:07:44.160 is that we impose too much law and order on African-Americans.

00:07:51.620 We are pulling them over for ticky-tack things like speeding and not having registration on their car and just driving badly.

00:08:02.960 And then we're checking for outstanding criminal warrants and maybe searching for illegal handguns.

00:08:11.960 This is all incredibly discriminatory.

00:08:14.120 So the cops went, oh, okay, you don't want us to do that?

00:08:17.720 All right, we'll be in the donut shop.

00:08:20.980 And so the number of traffic stops dropped way down.

00:08:25.620 So people started driving worse.

00:08:27.920 They drove faster and they started carrying illegal handguns more.

00:08:33.880 And the number of shootings, the number of homicides just went through the roof just immediately.

00:08:39.700 I can show week by week data from the Center for Disease Control.

00:08:45.460 That's pretty astonishing.

00:08:46.960 Beginning with George Floyd's death in the riots.

00:08:48.920 Yes.

00:08:49.220 I mean, the all-time most murderous day in the storied history of Chicago's murder narrative,

00:09:01.700 you know, going back, blowing away the St. Valentine's Day massacre by Al Capone and all that,

00:09:09.420 was May 31st, 2020, six days after George Floyd's death when 18 Chicagoans were murdered that day.

00:09:18.840 Why?

00:09:19.880 Pretty much because the cops went down to the Magnificent Mile to keep it from being torched and

00:09:25.680 looted.

00:09:25.980 And the word quickly got around that you can do anything you want in the neighborhood and

00:09:32.920 nobody's going to notice.

00:09:35.660 And so all sorts of vengeance was just taken on, you know, on random people out there for,

00:09:42.940 you know, for personal reasons.

00:09:44.700 And then it just went on and on for several more years.

00:09:48.720 Fortunately, last year or so, the murder rate started finally to come down.

00:09:53.760 So you don't think there's any, and you have the numbers, right?

00:09:57.240 Can we see them?

00:09:58.560 Yeah.

00:09:58.820 You don't think there's any question that this was related to the Floyd story, to the

00:10:04.100 Floyd events?

00:10:04.840 Let's take a look.

00:10:08.140 Let's take a look at the CDC's data weekly.

00:10:14.120 All right.

00:10:20.540 This is the Center for Disease Control collects data weekly on all the deaths in the United

00:10:27.620 States.

00:10:28.100 You can ask for any one particular thing.

00:10:31.080 So this is weeks from 2018 into 2023.

00:10:36.740 The blue line indicates the beginning of COVID lockdowns.

00:10:42.000 The black line is George Floyd's death.

00:10:45.060 All right.

00:10:45.380 The red line is the number of African Americans who died by homicide that week.

00:10:51.880 So it's bouncing around.

00:10:53.460 It has some seasonality in 2018, 2019.

00:10:57.060 George Floyd dies and suddenly, boom, it goes to this enormous peak.

00:11:01.440 And then just slowly fades over the next four years into 2023.

00:11:08.860 But it's immediate.

00:11:10.020 It's the second George Floyd ODs.

00:11:12.440 Yeah.

00:11:12.800 People start shooting each other.

00:11:13.920 Yeah.

00:11:14.260 About probably, probably by the Friday after he died on Memorial Day on Monday.

00:11:21.500 It just, you know, there was just a giant cultural revolution.

00:11:26.620 And basically people lost fear of the cops because everybody, the establishment, the media, the

00:11:35.140 politicians were telling America that we have too much policing and too much law and order.

00:11:42.700 And so we got a lot more murder.

00:11:45.960 It's kind of ironic because the name of the movement was Black Lives Matter and it wound up

00:11:51.020 getting an enormous number of black lives murdered, incremental versus what you see in 2019.

00:11:57.120 Boy, that's not even a close call.

00:11:58.980 I mean, that is absolutely obvious.

00:12:00.480 Yeah.

00:12:01.420 This is one of the biggest findings in the American social sciences, probably since Angus Deedon

00:12:10.620 and Case's finding in 2015 of deaths of despair and how the white working class's life expectancy

00:12:19.000 was dropping in the early 21st century.

00:12:23.400 The other, but the big part of it is that, oh, it also applies to motor vehicle accident deaths.

00:12:30.640 So you could see this pretty consistent level.

00:12:34.840 African-Americans have traditionally been not bad drivers.

00:12:39.000 They don't have the kind of problem with driving traditionally the way they had with homicide.

00:12:44.840 But boom, a new plateau that's endured ever since.

00:12:51.400 And to put this in a longer term historical perspective, let me find graphs of the CDC data

00:13:02.200 monthly going back to 1999 through 2000 and 21.

00:13:11.640 These are homicide deaths as opposed to murders perpetrated.

00:13:16.520 So these these are the races of victims and blacks, Hispanics, whites in blue. 1.00

00:13:24.040 Well, that is quite a spike.

00:13:26.780 You can see 9-11 there.

00:13:29.160 That's what it is.

00:13:29.880 3,000 Americans die by homicide at the hands of Al-Qaeda.

00:13:35.920 OK.

00:13:36.460 And then most years you've got, yeah, you've got more people get murdered in summer than

00:13:41.480 in winter.

00:13:42.160 They're out partying and so forth.

00:13:44.040 But it's pretty consistent.

00:13:45.500 You can see an increase over here in the Ferguson effect after the Black Lives Matter emerges 1.00

00:13:55.700 in 2014, which was a pretty decent year.

00:14:00.420 And then all of a sudden murders go up dramatically in 2015-16.

00:14:06.660 That helps get Trump elected.

00:14:08.660 You might remember how Black Lives Matter terrorists were assassinating cops in Dallas and Baton Rouge

00:14:16.400 and so forth, although that's really been memory hold.

00:14:21.060 Anyway, Jeff Sessions came in, kind of told the police departments, no, you know, we're not

00:14:27.520 going to persecute you for taking for doing your jobs.

00:14:31.460 All right.

00:14:32.100 Then Trump got rid of Sessions.

00:14:35.120 Maybe murder started going up a little more.

00:14:37.680 And then comes 2020 and the George Floyd racial reckoning.

00:14:46.320 And it's just enormous increase compared to anything else in the 21st century.

00:14:51.820 Now, one reason we don't hear about this is because these graphs are kind of embarrassing

00:14:56.060 because the Black line of homicide death rate is so much higher than the light brown Hispanic

00:15:05.100 line there.

00:15:05.980 The Hispanics actually, in the 21st century, have done a pretty good job of lowering their 1.00

00:15:11.160 rate of being murdered.

00:15:12.880 And finally, though, when the racial reckoning came along, it got worse again.

00:15:19.240 So we're losing a bunch of that progress.

00:15:21.520 The blue line is the white line down there.

00:15:24.300 It's an order of magnitude below the black line.

00:15:27.440 It's considered really bad taste to notice, you know, differences in the homicide rate.

00:15:35.380 And the other thing that I point out is motor vehicle deaths.

00:15:39.960 Motor vehicle deaths per capita, this isn't per mile driven, weren't too bad.

00:15:46.560 They didn't have big racial differences in the past.

00:15:49.880 The whites and the blue line often had the worst. 0.74

00:15:53.680 Blacks weren't bad. 1.00

00:15:55.140 Hispanics weren't good. 1.00

00:15:56.180 But then after 2008, Hispanics actually got better. 0.99

00:16:00.600 And the brown Hispanic line is doing pretty good until the racial reckoning. 0.81

00:16:06.360 But you can see the black line just went through the roof again compared to the rest of the

00:16:12.040 21st century.

00:16:13.140 So what's happened is during the Great Awakening, during the era of Black Lives Matter, what we 0.90

00:16:20.260 see is that deaths, two different kinds of deaths, homicides and car crashes, what I call

00:16:27.140 deaths of exuberance in contrast to Case and Deedon's deaths of despair, seem to be, have

00:16:34.900 gotten highly correlated.

00:16:36.300 When Black Lives Matter is winning, people, especially black Americans, die more deaths 0.98

00:16:44.820 of exuberance until Black Lives Matter goes out of fashion again and the cops are allowed 1.00

00:16:50.800 to, like, pull over bad drivers and check for illegal handguns.

00:16:56.000 So does anybody know that?

00:16:58.700 No, it's hardly caught on at all.

00:17:02.180 I mean, part of the problem is because I discovered in 2021, then if you're a social scientist, you

00:17:09.500 want to write a paper for an academic journal, it's kind of like either, well, either I cite

00:17:13.660 Steve Saylor, but I might get canceled for citing this horrible crime thinker, or I don't

00:17:20.620 cite him and then his followers on Twitter all get real mad at me for not citing him.

00:17:26.780 Here's my view.

00:17:27.960 Just go ahead.

00:17:28.700 Don't cite me.

00:17:30.080 Just get the word out there.

00:17:31.880 It's more important that America know about how badly it's screwed up, how many tens of

00:17:39.380 thousands of incremental Americans have died because America's elites get infatuated with

00:17:47.160 Black Lives Matter now and then, than it is for me to get publicity about it.

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00:20:26.660 These numbers are pretty striking when you see them graphed out like this, but they comport

00:20:36.440 with what you notice already.

00:20:39.040 I mean, you sort of knew that when you have riots, people die, and a lot of people who died 0.62

00:20:43.160 were black.

00:20:44.060 Not all, however.

00:20:45.600 But it was pretty obvious from day one that Black Lives Matter wasn't helping anybody, 0.99

00:20:50.000 including and maybe especially black people.

00:20:51.920 So, like, what would be the motive?

00:20:53.960 What's the motive?

00:20:57.240 There were a lot of motives for Black Lives Matter.

00:21:02.640 One was that America had gotten better after the 1990s, after the crack wars, at policing, 0.91

00:21:13.640 that the drugs that were driving crime were not particularly marketed to inner-city blacks,

00:21:24.760 the opioids, the oxycodone, and so forth.

00:21:28.860 Even when the Mexican cartels started selling black tar heroin, they also focused, like the

00:21:37.420 Sackler family, on like, you know, who are a bunch of people?

00:21:41.200 If they drop dead, nobody's going to care.

00:21:43.360 And that's like, eh, white people in small towns in Kentucky, that kind of stuff.

00:21:49.220 So, you had this big rise in deaths of despair.

00:21:52.840 Wait, so you're saying you think that was the Sacklers and the Mexican drug cartels, morally

00:21:59.000 equivalent, I would say, or close, targeted rural whites, Appalachian whites, for example, on

00:22:07.780 purpose because they knew that nobody would care when they died?

00:22:10.660 I mean, it's the theory of a good reporter named Sam Quinones, who's written a couple books on the evolution of the drug

00:22:21.140 trade in this century, that the Mexican cartels had a strategy that, no, we don't want to sell to particularly

00:22:32.680 shooty people near media capitals, we'll sell to people who will overdose and quiet in small towns in the Ohio River Valley that nobody's going to care much about.

00:22:47.060 And so, I mean, nobody paid any attention to this increase in the white working class death rate until just fortuitously in 2015, Angus Deeden was awarded the Nobel Prize in

00:23:01.380 Economics.

00:23:02.140 And then a couple of weeks later, he and his wife published this important paper saying, you know, if you look at the CDC data,

00:23:08.820 life expectancy for white working class people without, you know, without college degrees has been dropping in the 21st century, and it's not supposed to happen.

00:23:20.780 And it seems to be overdoses on painkillers, it seems to be suicide, it seems to be alcoholism, just deaths of despair.

00:23:32.940 Seven years into Obama.

00:23:33.840 Yeah, yeah, 15 years into the, into when it started around 2000, when the Sackler family's Purdue Pharmaceuticals started their big push for opioid prescriptions.

00:23:47.540 But how would no one notice this, I wonder?

00:23:50.520 You know, there's no organizations dedicated to the welfare of white working class people.

00:23:58.140 So the fact that they're dying in great numbers of novel causes, it basically relied on two academics and who said, wow, this is interesting.

00:24:11.260 And one of them happened to win the Nobel Prize just before their paper came out.

00:24:17.020 So people paid attention to their paper because, oh yeah, I heard about Angus Deeden and the Nobel Prize last month.

00:24:25.220 Well, that's kind of, if I can just ask you to pause this, I think you're right, but it's sort of interesting if you think about it.

00:24:30.440 There are no organizations dedicated to the welfare of rural whites.

00:24:34.960 Yeah.

00:24:35.400 But there are a lot of organizations dedicated to the welfare of a million other groups that are much smaller in number.

00:24:41.120 Yeah.

00:24:41.340 So why aren't there any organizations dedicated to that?

00:24:45.320 You know, a few people have tried to set up organizations that speak for white people the way that Al Sharpton speaks for black people.

00:24:57.240 And countless other organizations speak for Jewish people or Latinos and so forth and are highly respectable and are constantly quoted in the newspaper.

00:25:09.760 You know, a bright, very gentlemanly fellow named Jared Taylor tried to do this for the last 30 years.

00:25:18.640 And, you know, he's still banned on Twitter at this point.

00:25:23.980 You know, it's America has a phobia about anybody speaking up for the emerging white minority.

00:25:35.160 Everybody, you know, the conventional wisdom is that whites are rapidly being turned into a minority.

00:25:42.180 And that's a good thing.

00:25:44.920 And but we're not going to treat ever treat whites like the minority that they're becoming in multiple states across the country. 0.75

00:25:54.960 We're going to treat them as the all powerful, omnipotent legacy majority who can be blamed for everything from now on.

00:26:04.680 But that's I certainly see that.

00:26:08.820 Well, I think that's absolutely right.

00:26:10.000 But if their life expectancy is declining faster than anyone else's and they are dying, then I mean, it does seem a little odd to lie about that.

00:26:22.940 I mean, what's the intent there?

00:26:24.740 It's it's nobody lied so much as they just wonder, why are you interested in this?

00:26:33.620 What kind of sinister reason do you have for worrying about the hundred million working class white people in the country who are generating these new problems and dropping dead from them? 1.00

00:26:51.100 And, you know, putting out the alarm about it is just considered some sort of white supremacist, white nationalist, you know, dog whistle that, you know, will lead to slavery and the Holocaust and all sorts of imaginings.

00:27:12.160 And, you know, the other half of the white population wasn't suffering, you know, they were, you know, the kind of people who don't have a bad back because they don't lift heavy things on the on the job.

00:27:26.600 So, you know, they're not hooked on oxycodone or or when prescriptions got tightened up, they didn't go over to Mexican heroin and and then to fentanyl and so forth.

00:27:38.500 So, you know, who cares?

00:27:41.280 Oh, we're just talking about deplorables here.

00:27:44.080 But OK, I mean, I get, you know, everyone has preferences and a lot of people in Washington, New York and L.A. don't like the voting patterns of the population you're describing, but they are human beings and Americans.

00:27:57.180 And if they're going extinct or they're dying in huge numbers, in any case.

00:28:03.520 To ignore that or downplay it is evil, isn't it?

00:28:06.600 Yeah, I mean, they to my view, they are our fellow American citizens, as are African-Americans.

00:28:16.180 And so the fact that Black Lives Matter in this ironic, complete self-destructiveness brought about just historic changes in the number of black lives dying in kind of the opposite of the white working class deaths of exuberance. 0.90

00:28:40.160 That you could see it in the Ferguson effect in 2015, 16, and now in the huge Floyd effect of the 2020s.

00:28:48.480 I mean, we're talking something like an incremental 15 to 20,000 more blacks have died in those in car crashes and murders than if the baseline of a few years ago had been maintained.

00:29:04.680 And that's, that's, that's just enormous.

00:29:07.160 That's, that's easily the black death rate, death total in Vietnam, maybe Vietnam and Korea put together.

00:29:14.140 Uh, and people should be talking about that too, because African-Americans are our fellow American citizens and we ought to be like keeping an eye on them and not refraining from noticing just because it's embarrassing. 1.00

00:29:30.220 Just because who's it embarrassing to elites, the convent, the propounders of the conventional wisdom, uh, the respectable prestige press academia, uh, the democratic, uh, party and so forth that they, they promoted all of this stuff.

00:29:52.140 Uh, they took black lives matter at face value and did very little investigation.

00:29:59.980 I mean, basically you weren't any more allowed to ask the question like, okay, blacks, men tend to get shot by the police about two to three times as often as white men per capita.

00:30:15.700 Um, that's, that's, that's, that's, that's a big difference, but it's nowhere near as big a difference as, uh, blacks tend to get shot by each other about 10 times as much as whites get shot by each other.

00:30:31.680 And probably blacks get shot by non-police whites, you know, dozens of times less often than they're shot by other blacks.

00:30:44.360 Um, you know, black, young black men in this country have an enormous homicide problem, a gun homicide problem. 0.70

00:30:55.280 Uh, I looked up for young, for males age 15 to 34, their death by gun homicide in 2022 and blacks, young black men died about 50, not 15, but 50 times more per capita by gunfire than young Asian men.

00:31:17.840 Uh, 24 times more than young white men, uh, and six times more than Hispanics. 0.83

00:31:24.360 Uh, the Hispanics are fairly comparable in poverty rate and education and so forth.

00:31:32.940 And, but they don't have anywhere near the kind of, uh, gun problem that, uh, African Americans have developed. 0.70

00:31:42.520 And I think, but is anybody out there asking young African Americans and telling them, you know, you, if you guys could not get your homicide rate down to the Hispanic level, if you could get it down halfway from where it is now to this Hispanic level, this country would be so much better off. 0.93

00:32:04.420 And race relations would be so much better, but, you know, you're not supposed to put crime statistics like that in the newspaper.

00:32:13.280 It's just considered, you know, racist to, to mention all of these government statistics.

00:32:17.760 So it's obviously not, you know, it's reality is not racist, you know, um, by definition.

00:32:24.740 I hope not.

00:32:25.120 Right.

00:32:26.120 But again, sorry to keep asking variations of the same question, but what would be the motive in trying to hide something like that?

00:32:34.620 All right, I, my theory is that it goes back to the grand strategy of the democratic party, which, uh, is enthusiastically assisted by other forms of the establishment, such as the, the prestige press, uh, academia, much, much of the corporate world as well.

00:32:57.840 The, the, the, the Democrats have realized over the last few decades that they could be, that America is becoming more diverse.

00:33:09.060 Uh, immigration is driving diversity, uh, patterns of interracial marriage, more, more people who are, have some claim to be non-white.

00:33:21.580 Um, also there's the constant generation of new identities, such as in, in the last decade, transgenderism.

00:33:32.300 Um, so as America becomes more diverse, the democratic party can profit by being the party of diversity, the party of the diverse, the party of people from the fringes of American society, the party of people that the Democrats would call the marginalized.

00:33:51.580 From the margins of American society.

00:33:53.660 So you're talking about immigrants, you're talking about, uh, black church, ladies, transgenders, uh, uh, Jews, Muslims, et cetera, et cetera.

00:34:08.380 Now, the one problem with all this is that while it's, it works pretty well on paper and the Democrats have managed to win the popular vote in seven of the last eight presidential elections.

00:34:24.700 Uh, the problem is keeping this coalition of the fringes of the marginalized from turning on each other, from becoming a circular firing squad.

00:34:34.860 And because a lot of the components have very little in common.

00:34:38.880 Yeah.

00:34:39.200 As we're seeing with Jews and Muslims right now, it's, you know, these people do not like each other. 1.00

00:34:47.960 Do the black church ladies who were the steadfast Democrats, do they, do they really get along that well with the gays, much less with the transgenders? 0.99

00:34:56.860 Nah, do the, do the Asian immigrants have much in common with, uh, with Hispanic immigrants? 0.93

00:35:06.140 Nah, not really.

00:35:07.920 Um, it can go on and on.

00:35:10.360 It, it's, it's inherent in the Democrats grand strategy to be the party of, of diversity, the party of the fringes of American society.

00:35:19.640 So, uh, how can they unite their coalition of the margins?

00:35:25.280 And the one strategy the Democrats have come up with is basically to foster, uh, racist animus against core Americans.

00:35:41.780 People who, uh, you know, basically are demographically somewhat like George Washington, Ben Franklin, John Adams, you know, that are, that are white, that are men, that are straight, maybe they own homes, maybe they're married, they have kids.

00:36:00.740 Um, so the, and to make them the bad guys in the American narrative.

00:36:08.820 And that's the only thing the Democrats and their colleagues in academia, et cetera, can think of to hold together this diverse coalition.

00:36:18.840 So we've seen this enormous increase in, um, in just racist bigotry being expressed in, you know, the pages of the New York times in this century, things that in the past would have been considered rather in poor taste and extremist.

00:36:39.940 So the New York times will, you know, has put in a lot of effort in recent years explaining the racist, sexist slur of Karen, uh, this anti-white woman, uh, racist, uh, slur to their, their millions of subscribers so that they know just the right time to use it.

00:37:02.720 And they, and they, and they make sure not to use it on any, on a non-white, uh, Karen's and so forth. 0.63

00:37:08.560 Uh, you, you recently had on.

00:37:10.620 Can I just ask though, my impression is that most of the readership of the New York times is Karen's.

00:37:15.500 Yeah, I, I would think.

00:37:18.320 But what I mean by that is like screechy, fragile, barren, NPR listing, middle-aged lawyers.

00:37:25.480 Yeah, that's.

00:37:26.640 Yeah.

00:37:27.120 I mean, in my mind's eye.

00:37:28.840 In the modal subscriber, perhaps.

00:37:31.380 And yeah, the, you know, the New York times is not the failing New York times anymore.

00:37:37.780 It's, they've done a very good job of identifying people who will pay to subscribe to have their worldview vindicated over and over again.

00:37:47.920 And, and kind of for the times to bury inconvenient facts that don't support their view of the world, you know, in the 27th paragraph or something like that.

00:38:00.000 Um, so yeah, you recently had on Jeremy Carl, he's got a new book, The Unprotected Class that documents a great length, just this trend toward ever more, uh, anti-white racism in the respectable press and in media and the democratic speeches and so forth.

00:38:22.640 And, you know, I, it's finally starting to, to, to, to backfire on Democrats.

00:38:29.640 Uh, people are starting to notice just, just how much awful stuff is said about kind of the core Americans that tend to vote Republican.

00:38:40.980 So, I don't know what, I mean, have you, have you, have you been seeing this just over the last 10 years, just huge increases and, and putting down white people?

00:38:53.000 Have I noticed it?

00:38:53.740 It's the, it's one of the defining facts of American society and it's, and it's always perpetrated by people who are simultaneously in the same sentence, giving you a lecture about racism.

00:39:04.200 Yes. 1.00

00:39:04.900 Shut up, white man. 1.00

00:39:05.640 You're evil for being white and racist. 1.00

00:39:07.600 Huh? 0.99

00:39:09.120 It's like, there's so many, like the contradictions in that sentence are, are so inherent that, um, it's hard to believe anyone could utter it.

00:39:17.920 But no, of course I noticed that.

00:39:20.060 And I guess what I'm really struck by, and I don't know the answer, is why people put up with it.

00:39:25.700 So, so at that point, it's like, well, you know, like if you're attacking my children for their skin color, then I get my gun, right?

00:39:32.200 But nobody does get his gun.

00:39:33.660 They just sort of sit there and, okay, can't say anything.

00:39:36.700 Like why, I don't, why would anyone ever put up with that?

00:39:40.660 I mean, white Americans go out of their way.

00:39:43.980 They're not, to, to just go, oh yes, I hear what you're saying about how the evils of whiteness and, and my children are children of whiteness and they have oppressed the world.

00:40:05.240 And I've actually thought about that and while that may sound like just lowbrow racist bigotry on your part, it actually has a really impressive intellectual heritage going back to the Frankfurt School and Gramsci and updated by, you know, 0.96

00:40:30.400 in the critical race theory by Marcuse and people will go on and on about, uh, you know, what, what you're saying isn't as moronic as it sounds and hate-filled bigotry. 0.69

00:40:45.340 It's, it's actually, you're getting this and it all goes back to Marxism or, or Foucault or something like that. 0.85

00:40:55.580 Um, so yeah, Republicans, whites have been reluctant to, to call out just anti-white racism for what it is.

00:41:07.800 But why is, I mean, clearly something is broken inside, right?

00:41:12.300 I mean, like, why would you put up with an attack that's inherently unreasonable, right?

00:41:19.340 You don't choose your race, therefore you probably shouldn't attack someone on the basis of his race.

00:41:23.400 It's totally anti-American as defined by consensus over the last 60 years.

00:41:28.940 That's one thing we're not allowed to do and yet it's done at greater scale now than during the Jim Crow period. 0.52

00:41:34.140 So, like, why would you even consider putting up with that?

00:41:38.480 There must be something wrong with you.

00:41:39.940 Like, you hate yourself, obviously.

00:41:41.220 Yeah, Republicans, they, Republicans like, uh, other, other races and good for them.

00:41:54.400 And, uh, and yeah, they want, they want to blame the tendency that's been growing, especially in the Black Lives Matter era of the last decade,

00:42:07.940 to just say the most bigoted things.

00:42:11.640 They want to blame it on something old like Marxism.

00:42:16.200 Now, this isn't what, uh, African-Americans want to say.

00:42:21.200 You know, the, my son's, I, my son's friends on his high school football team, they're not, they're not bigoted racists.

00:42:29.680 And the truth is, yeah, a lot of them aren't.

00:42:32.140 I mean, a lot, a lot of this stuff is coming out of colleges and so forth.

00:42:36.840 It's, it's kind of soft degree majors and so on.

00:42:40.860 But, you know, taking, taking claims to have some deep intellectual heritage is naive.

00:42:51.960 It's just, it's just people with soft majors who got DEI sinecures and so forth and corporations and colleges, you know,

00:43:02.420 and just expressing their, their basic prejudices, their basic bigotry.

00:43:09.100 And, you know, we should be laughing at it.

00:43:13.220 We shouldn't be taking it that seriously.

00:43:15.180 We should be satirizing it and scorning it and making jokes about it.

00:43:19.980 And that could well get the message across.

00:43:24.000 You may have come to the obvious conclusion that the real debate is not between Republican and Democrat or Socialist and Capitalist, right, left.

00:43:32.300 The real battle is between people who are lying on purpose and people who are trying to tell you the truth.

00:43:39.420 It's between good and evil.

00:43:41.180 It's between honesty and falsehood.

00:43:43.860 And we hope we are on the former side.

00:43:46.500 That's why we created this network, the Tucker Carlson Network.

00:43:49.040 And we invite you to subscribe to it.

00:43:50.860 Go to tuckercarlson.com slash podcast.

00:43:53.760 Our entire archive is there.

00:43:55.200 A lot of behind-the-scenes footage of what actually happens in this barn when only an iPhone is running.

00:44:01.040 Tucker Carlson dot com slash podcast.

00:44:04.880 You will not regret it.

00:44:05.980 So can I ask, I think a lot of people assume that when whites, who obviously founded the country, become a minority in the country, their ancestors founded, that it'll stop.

00:44:32.780 Whites will be the legacy majority. 0.99

00:44:35.980 I mean, I'll give you an example.

00:44:40.640 In 1955, a 14-year-old black child named Emmett Till was murdered for making pretty aggressive pass toward a white woman in the South.

00:44:56.520 All right.

00:44:57.000 Married white woman in a store.

00:44:58.320 Yeah, in a store.

00:44:59.160 And then that was a big story at the time and helped lead to the civil rights era of the 1960s.

00:45:07.340 And then it sort of faded from the newspapers.

00:45:10.760 The New York Times mentioned Emmett Till's name twice in 1980.

00:45:15.640 In 2000, they were up to mentioning him four times.

00:45:20.920 By, I think, 2018, they were mentioning him something like one and a half times a week.

00:45:29.160 About as often as Chief Justice John Roberts.

00:45:33.020 Not really.

00:45:34.020 In the New York Times.

00:45:35.400 It just became this huge breaking news story.

00:45:40.060 I joke that they had a jet at LaGuardia fueled up, always ready to fly to anywhere to report on the latest Emmett Till news.

00:45:50.300 All right.

00:45:51.940 This kind of antiquarianism is increasing because, I mean, the truth for liberals is the liberals have been pretty much in charge of most things involving race for since the 1960s.

00:46:09.240 And they haven't really accomplished that much, so they kind of want to hide their record and focus people on pre-civil rights antiquities, such as Emmett Till.

00:46:24.300 Or you constantly hear these days about FDR's redlining of FHA loans in 1938 as the reason that black neighborhoods tend to have lower property values than white neighborhoods or Latino or Asian neighborhoods.

00:46:47.640 And, you know, it couldn't have anything to do with current crime rates.

00:46:50.640 It couldn't have anything to do with discipline in the local schools.

00:46:55.840 It's got to do with the nefarious plot of FDR, you know, in almost 90 years ago.

00:47:05.680 Why does no one...

00:47:06.900 So, you know, all these southern cities are famous in American culture for their association.

00:47:15.700 You know, the Edmund Pettus Bridge, Selma, Alabama.

00:47:17.880 You know, the trial in Wilmington.

00:47:22.320 You know, there's like these moments in the civil rights era that people are still, as you pointed out, talking about Philadelphia, Mississippi.

00:47:28.780 Why does no one ever go back to those places, those physical places, and find out how they're doing?

00:47:35.120 Yeah.

00:47:36.600 Birmingham, not doing that well.

00:47:40.820 Selma, not doing that well.

00:47:42.580 Well, yeah, it's, yeah, what then ends up is you then have, you end up getting a long lecture about how the construction of a freeway in 1958 destroyed the booming Black Wall Street of Birmingham or whatever.

00:48:03.140 And all sorts of things like, there's a large number of pre-canned excuses.

00:48:12.420 But is there any effort to actually improve the lives of Black people that you're aware of?

00:48:17.300 I mean, what does improve the lives of Black people?

00:48:20.940 Basically, having some law and order, keeping people from carrying guns on the street, that's probably done quite a bit of good.

00:48:32.960 Basically, the parts of the country that are run by Republicans tend to have somewhat better performing Black students in schools and so forth.

00:48:48.380 For example, Frisco, Texas, a fast-growing exurb of Dallas, has the smallest test score gap of any school district in the country.

00:49:01.120 It has the highest, it's about 11% Black and 20% Hispanic, and it has the highest Black and Hispanic test scores in the United States.

00:49:10.540 Really?

00:49:10.760 And the smallest white-Black gap in the country. 0.97

00:49:15.320 And, you know, other places, the great liberal cities like San Francisco and Madison, Wisconsin, tend to have bigger gaps.

00:49:30.860 Not just because they have a lot of smart white people living there, but they do a lousier job in San Francisco of educating Blacks because, you know, it's such a liberal, progressive environment that they do a poor job of doing things like having well-disciplined schools and focusing on basics and so forth. 0.71

00:49:54.320 So, yeah, there's a general, I mean, there's been a general trend toward Blacks who have some choices in life, who are looking to get ahead, looking to do good things for their kids, to be moving to the South, to Texas, to red states, and so forth, where, you know, they can, and away from the highly liberal parts of the country.

00:50:22.260 It's not a panacea, but, you know, it does some good at the margin.

00:50:28.020 Where are we on the continuum?

00:50:31.420 In other words, the graphs that you showed the four years after the Floyd verdict, or Floyd death, if you extended those, if you doubled them, what would they look like?

00:50:42.240 Where are we now?

00:50:45.280 We're hopefully past the worst of the racial reckoning.

00:50:49.280 What I've noticed in the newspapers was that the front section around a few months before the 2022 election seemed to get the word from maybe the Biden White House that, like, you know, this whole George Floyd racial reckoning thing, that's not going to be a big vote winner in the 2022 midterms, especially in the New York City area.

00:51:16.160 Um, so let's, let's go easy on it.

00:51:19.680 Let's not talk about it all the time.

00:51:22.500 Maybe it wasn't such a good idea.

00:51:25.100 What, and then it just sort of disappeared from the serious news part of the paper.

00:51:31.640 In the cultural section in the back, you, you know, they never got the memo.

00:51:36.600 So there's constantly discussions about how, okay, uh, in a great leap forward for equity at the Art Institute of Chicago, they fired all the nice white lady docents who work for free giving tours of the great artwork so they can hire, uh, people of color to, to then pay them to work there and stuff like that.

00:52:02.780 And you kept hearing all those kinds of stories going on much longer about the wonders of the racial reckoning because, you know, they hadn't gotten the message.

00:52:12.860 Uh, but yeah, probably the Biden administration, uh, engaging in benign neglect about like, yeah, let's not, uh, persecute police departments quite as hard as we were.

00:52:27.960 And, uh, has probably done some good about getting the cops out of the donut shop and actually pulling over, you know, people driving a hundred miles an hour.

00:52:38.080 Um, and so yeah, that's, that's made some progress, but it took the, it took the Hispanics while longer to get the, get the word that the cops weren't being proactive.

00:52:51.900 And so their car crash and murder rates have gone way up and, you know, it's, it's, even if things are getting better now, they're going to take a number of years to get back to where we were in 2019, much less where we were before Ferguson in 2014.

00:53:10.320 You know, the, the death rate is still up like in these deaths of exuberance, like 30 to 40% over 2014.

00:53:18.760 And, and, and way up over the, you know, non-black average. 0.67

00:53:22.380 So the, you know, the obvious question is like, why, and it's been going on a long time.

00:53:27.320 Has there ever been a serious effort made in good faith to figure out why rates of violence among, in black areas are so much higher, which they are and have always been, but why?

00:53:40.660 Yeah, people, people, people have been studying it, uh, for, uh, the longest time, uh, you know, time magazine ran an article in the late fifties about the biggest worry of big city mayors is the growing problem of black crime.

00:53:58.880 Um, uh, you know, at this point cities have done, you know, we, we went through a bunch of phases.

00:54:08.180 We liberalized the country in the sixties and the Warren court years, we cut, uh, the imprisonment times and so forth.

00:54:18.340 And that, that, that wound up doubling the per capita, uh, murder rate in the sixties and seventies.

00:54:24.680 It doubled.

00:54:25.600 Yeah.

00:54:26.180 It was by 1980.

00:54:27.540 It was twice what it was in 1961 per capita.

00:54:31.440 That's a lot of dead people.

00:54:32.720 Yeah, that's a lot of dead people and did, did, did horrors to American urban life.

00:54:40.960 People fled to the suburbs.

00:54:43.940 They're, they're all now denounced as these villains who engaged in white flight.

00:54:48.520 But you know, like my, my wife's family lived in the, in the Austin neighborhood in the West side of Chicago.

00:54:55.400 And they, they, when it started to integrate, they joined a liberal Catholic group and said, okay, we're all going to stick it out and make integration work.

00:55:07.260 And we're not going to flee to the suburbs.

00:55:10.560 And my in-law stuck, stuck it out three years longer than the rest of the members of the club did.

00:55:17.360 But by that point, the number of felonies against their children was piling up.

00:55:21.320 And so they finally sold out at a loss of like half of what they could have gotten for their house that they'd sold it three years before.

00:55:31.920 Tens of millions of people.

00:55:33.600 Did that change their views?

00:55:34.460 What a tragedy for them.

00:55:35.600 Yeah.

00:55:36.600 They, you know, my, my late father-in-law was the tuba player for the Chicago Lyric Opera.

00:55:43.820 So, so he ended up buying a farm 63 miles out of town and then commuting to work to play the tuba in the opera house downtown.

00:55:56.120 Yeah, it was kind of a disaster for them.

00:55:58.320 And, you know, there's tens of millions of Americans who are still alive who can tell these stories of what actually happened.

00:56:06.080 And the media is not that interested in hearing them.

00:56:11.280 You know, the media wants to portray these people as the bad guys who, because of their bigotry and not because of all the felonies against their children, you know, moved out to the suburbs.

00:56:24.240 Interestingly, right across the street from where my in-laws lived is the municipality of Oak Park, Illinois, a suburb that Ernest Hemingway supposedly said was the land of broad lawns and narrow mines.

00:56:42.920 But it's really nice, has all this great Frank Lloyd Wright architecture.

00:56:45.720 They actually did something really intelligent and really illegal in the 1970s, which was they put a racial quota on real estate agents.

00:56:57.280 It was called the Black a Block Club and said, no, you can't make a huge fast windfall by terrifying everybody into selling right now.

00:57:10.160 And because it's the whole block is going to tip black. 0.78

00:57:13.280 We're going to do this in an orderly fashion and we're going to use a racial quota. 0.99

00:57:20.180 And it worked.

00:57:22.640 It kept Oak Park from going all black the way the Austin neighborhood next door has gone. 0.96

00:57:30.800 And Austin just is bleak.

00:57:33.020 It's kind of post-apocalyptic looking now.

00:57:35.220 And Oak Park looks kind of like this gay utopia for older gay couples who like fixing up beautiful Frank Lloyd Wright houses. 1.00

00:57:46.320 So, you know, liberals did some things to protect themselves, but they just didn't tell anybody about it.

00:57:54.620 Was anyone ever held responsible for any of this?

00:58:01.860 You know, if you read the press, yeah, there's been huge condemnation for all the white families that fled crime as that they're engaging in white flight.

00:58:20.680 And if their grandchildren move back to the city because the crime has come down a little, then they're engaging in the great crime of gentrification.

00:58:29.440 You know, it's, it's kind of can't win, you know, either way you lose, you know, there's all sorts of talk, you know, Mayor Pete in the transportation department's always denouncing racist roads, that building highways was destroying black neighborhoods and so forth.

00:58:53.880 You know, we've rewritten the past over and so we don't learn anything from it because we just, we just specify a few important, a few things that fit this narrative that everybody has now.

00:59:13.180 So, you know, we'll see.

00:59:15.380 I mean, the obvious goal is what they call equity.

00:59:21.100 And the term equity is, is one of those words.

00:59:26.800 It's not a secret what the DEI people want when they specify equity, what they're talking about when they're talking about equity and generational wealth and so forth is they want your equity in your home and they want to tax it away and take it for as reparations and spend it on themselves.

00:59:47.980 And that's, that's kind of the bottom line, whether that'll get carried out, I don't know.

00:59:54.540 We've, we've seen reparation programs start to put out checks in super liberal places like Evanston, Illinois, even in California, the idea of handing out huge checks to black people for the, the horrors of living in California.

01:00:10.280 Um, didn't go that well.

01:00:13.580 Well, you have two, two larger Hispanic population.

01:00:16.840 Yeah.

01:00:17.200 So we'll ask how exactly would, um, the DEI community steal the equity out of your home?

01:00:24.400 Um, well, I mean, one, one start has been to reopen ancient history.

01:00:32.820 Um, uh, uh, uh, what do you call it when the government condemns your property and sells and buys it for what it thinks it's worth?

01:00:44.640 Um, we've, we've, we've seen cases eminent domain.

01:00:47.740 Yeah.

01:00:47.940 Eminent domain cases from a century ago we saw, uh, so if you, if, if you're black and you happen to have a family legend that we used to own this really nice piece of property, but then it got eminently domain to make into a park that that was racist and we should get that property back.

01:01:08.200 So, uh, the descendants of a black family in Manhattan beach recently who, uh, Manhattan beach had, had, uh, condemned their property and a few other, and some white neighbors of theirs to build a park.

01:01:24.220 And they recently got the city council to declare that that was racist in 1928 and that if it wasn't for this, they no doubt would have held onto the property through the depression, through everything that's happened ever since they would, they would have scrimped and saved to hold onto that land next to the beach, which is now worth $20 million.

01:01:49.720 So they got a check for $20 million, uh, for that, uh, you, you'll see, you know, this is a general trend that's, that's speeding up as, uh, uh, you know, plaintiff's attorneys are looking for these old cases.

01:02:06.260 And, you know, it's not like they can relitigate the case cause there's nobody alive that remembers, that can testify or anything like that.

01:02:16.100 Um, so there'll be, there'll be lots of attempts like that to, you know, basically hand out large amounts of money and, um, and maybe, maybe it won't be called reparations, but, uh, but you'll see this.

01:02:32.420 And it's, it's definitely been increasing in the 2020s.

01:02:36.380 But doesn't demographic change through be driven by immigration scramble the formula a little bit?

01:02:42.380 Yeah.

01:02:42.920 So you're, I'm 55, you're older than I am by a bit, but we both grew up in a country where, you know, it was white majority black minority and with some were from California, both of us.

01:02:54.360 So there was always a Hispanic component, but, um, but I think most Americans sort of thought of it as a white country with a black minority, a mistreated black minority.

01:03:03.060 In some cases that was true, but that's not the country that we're in right now.

01:03:09.020 And it definitely is not the country we're going to be in in 10 years, which is going to have a Hispanic majority, a white minority, and then a much, much, much smaller black minority.

01:03:17.480 So I just wonder if the Hispanic majority is going to be that interested in Emmett Till.

01:03:22.620 Yeah.

01:03:23.260 I mean, that's, yeah, that's definitely a possibility.

01:03:29.920 And, and, and the, the establishment is working hard on that to, to inculcate in the public schools that Emmett Till was the most important figure of the 20th century.

01:03:44.360 Um, they're, they're, they're working very hard to keep together the democratic coalition of the fringes by pointing at these horrible white men who are the enemy and who also have all the generational wealth and keep your eye on the prize eyes on the prize, which is other people's money.

01:04:08.140 Yeah. 0.87

01:04:08.380 Other people's money.

01:04:09.740 It's, it's white people's home equity, basically in stocks of, you know, baby boomers are dying. 0.88

01:04:16.800 Uh, they're leaving their, they want to leave their property to their kids.

01:04:20.800 This is a vast turnover of wealth.

01:04:23.680 We need to get our, our hands on some of this.

01:04:27.180 Um, another question might be, you know, how, how big is the African immigration going to, going to be?

01:04:34.440 If you look, go to look at the border, there's all sorts of people showing up from Mauritania from all sorts of places, you know, recent years all over the world, uh, fertility rates are plummeting, except they're still way above, uh, uh, reproduction rate in, in most of Africa.

01:04:57.040 Right.

01:04:57.480 And, uh, it's not, people know how to get out of Africa.

01:05:03.300 Now you get a smartphone, it gives you all the instructions and so forth.

01:05:07.760 So, you know, why not move somewhere nicer?

01:05:11.920 And, you know, so the, so the country could well be, um, you know, I mean, Europe's getting much more African and probably, and America is too at this point. 0.73

01:05:24.480 Um, the, the, uh, descendants of American slaves are losing out on their affirmative action and so forth.

01:05:35.100 I mean, 20 years ago, um, uh, uh, uh, to, uh, Harvard African American studies professors pointed out that a huge fraction of the affirmative action spots at Harvard seem to be reserved either for foreign elites whose parents are,

01:05:54.260 you know, you know, foreign minister of Ghana or something like that, or, or, or have one white parent, or like in the case of the Obama family, it's now a three generation Harvard family, both, uh, privileges.

01:06:10.940 And, you know, you know, not many positions at Harvard go to, uh, descendants of American slaves, the way, you know, Michelle Obama is clearly, uh, you know, highly legitimate descendant of American slaves.

01:06:24.960 And Barack, man, not at all.

01:06:27.060 Um, but yeah, that's, we're going to see, we'll see that.

01:06:32.400 I mean, American corporations, they want, if, if they have to meet DEI quotas, uh, they tend to prefer, uh, immigrants for the jobs or people maybe who are raised by their white mothers or something like that.

01:06:48.000 So, uh, we'll, we'll, we'll see where, where this all leads.

01:06:53.340 Where does it all go politically?

01:07:07.220 Well, actually, let me just take a step back.

01:07:09.180 You, um, became famous to the extent that you were famous in sort of a Sama's dot kind of way, 2016 for calling that election with some, with some accuracy based on looking at the demographics.

01:07:24.240 Tell us about your predictions.

01:07:26.260 Yeah.

01:07:26.640 I mean, that's, that's a kind overstatement, but it's, it's, it's more like in 2000, I became the most outspoken critic.

01:07:38.180 Of the new GOP orthodoxy is promulgated by Karl Rove, George W.

01:07:44.720 Bush's, uh, Svengali and Rove's theory was that what we need, what the Republicans need is to push through amnesty and much easier immigration.

01:07:59.700 And that's what the Latino voters or future Latino voters will, will, they'll love us for that, for bringing in fellow Latinos.

01:08:11.460 And then they'll all switch to voting, uh, Republican, especially for the Bush family, which, you know, that, uh, Jeb's son, uh, George P. Bush is half Mexican.

01:08:27.520 And so there was a future as the United States and Mexico demographically merge, the Bush dynasty of wasps and Mexicans will carry on as the natural ruling class of, uh, of, um, increasingly mestizo North America. 0.95

01:08:45.900 Uh, and that's, that wasn't too implausible, but I kept asking questions like, do Mex, do Latinos really care? 1.00

01:08:56.780 Are you sure they really want all their cousins from back home to be moving in with them?

01:09:06.580 Uh, the one close Latino state is Florida and do the Cubans in Florida really care about Mexicans, illegal alien Mexicans? 1.00

01:09:16.280 I haven't noticed that.

01:09:18.340 And I kept saying, you know, an awful lot of Latinos are in California and that's never going to go Republic again. 1.00

01:09:27.380 And the others are in Texas in large numbers.

01:09:30.700 And if that goes, if that's up for play, then the Republican party's in really big trouble.

01:09:36.220 So wouldn't it make more sense looking at the electoral college map to go, well, look, there's all these great lake states, the Rust Belt. 0.94

01:09:44.700 And one of the things you see there is that the white working class isn't anywhere near as Republican as they are in the South.

01:09:52.980 And they're actually really close in the electoral college, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania.

01:10:00.120 So why not do things for the white working class in the North and such as, uh, limiting immigration so that, you know, they can continue to be paid pretty well. 0.86

01:10:12.960 Uh, and focus on them.

01:10:16.300 And yeah, that's, and the Republican establishment kept going on with the Hispanic, uh, plan. 0.93

01:10:24.100 That was the big 2013 audit that convinced Marco Rubio that we need, uh, amnesty and so forth.

01:10:32.120 Uh, but I kept saying, eh, you know, the way you went in the electoral college is these, is these Rust Belt states around the Great Lakes.

01:10:40.960 Did Rove not see that?

01:10:42.080 Uh, he, I mean, for his loyalty to the Bush dynasty, I really think George P. Bush, uh, played a huge role in the Bush family's thinking that because Jeb had married into a Mexican family,

01:11:04.980 uh, that this gave the Bushes out of all the wasp dynasties in the United States, the greatest chance to exploit, uh, the immigration wave from Latin America and to be the natural rulers of, um, of, um, a Mexicanized population. 0.97

01:11:26.320 I mean, uh, George H.W. Bush had 10-year-old George P. Bush read the Declaration of Independence at the 1988 Republican convention, which was a big deal because, because, uh, the Democratic candidate had been unenthusiastic about the Pledge of Allegiance and so forth.

01:11:45.180 So, you know, um, uh, George H.W. was putting his, what he called his little brown one up there on national television to-

01:11:53.300 The LBO.

01:11:53.760 Yeah, to get that started.

01:11:55.740 So, um, so, yeah, it made sense to Rove, um, you know.

01:12:01.220 You got the sense that the more you listened to Rove that maybe he wasn't the genius we were told he was.

01:12:06.320 Yeah.

01:12:08.660 I mean, you know, yeah, he won, he won an election.

01:12:12.720 He won, yeah, he got, he won a couple of elections for George W. Bush.

01:12:18.640 Um, but yeah, is, is he this genius?

01:12:23.620 Nah.

01:12:24.460 But, you know, the Republicans weren't, didn't, you know, didn't have a whole lot of people who crunched numbers and spreadsheets.

01:12:32.520 So, in the first decade of the century, I spent a lot of time analyzing spreadsheets and so forth of election totals and going, you know, it looks like there's a different path here.

01:12:44.320 And it really runs through the North Central region where white working class people vote about 50-50 Republican and Democrat.

01:12:54.820 And you can get that up to 55, 60 percent.

01:12:57.700 You know, you can, you can win a lot of electoral votes.

01:13:00.720 So, did, did Trump, uh, read my 2000 article?

01:13:06.160 Nah, but what else was he going to do?

01:13:09.300 That was, that was the one path to the presidency.

01:13:13.000 You know, it almost worked again in 2020, uh, under pretty adverse circumstances.

01:13:19.120 So.

01:13:20.160 Will it work this time?

01:13:23.120 I don't know.

01:13:24.260 I've got, I've given up making predictions.

01:13:26.500 I mean, people, people came along like Nate Silver, who just were so much more interested in predicting elections and worked so much harder at it.

01:13:37.920 That was like, eh, I don't have that gambling instinct that, that Nate does.

01:13:42.940 And, you know, uh, I'm going to, I'm going to retire from making predictions.

01:13:48.900 I'm not, I don't see myself as a great forecaster of the future.

01:13:52.540 What I try to be is a historian of the present and notice things that are happening right now.

01:13:59.180 So what has happened with Hispanic voters?

01:14:01.900 Um, in, in, in Texas, in, in Texas, it definitely seemed like the racial reckoning of 2020 when the, when the Democrats went basically nuts over blacks, alienated quite a few Texas, uh, Latino Democrats.

01:14:25.280 Uh, in California, uh, less clear, uh, you know, does it even matter?

01:14:33.420 I mean, California is not much of a democracy at this point.

01:14:35.740 Yeah, it's, it, it doesn't matter.

01:14:38.160 It, it, it's helpful in Texas in that the Republican Republicans will basically lose the White House forever when Texas flips blue.

01:14:47.920 Uh, the good news in Texas is that basically they have a pretty, they have a pretty strong, loyal, steadfast Republican white population. 0.67

01:15:04.580 A lot of the advantages of Texas are that they're not tied into guilt over the South.

01:15:10.860 They were a Confederate state, but they don't care about that.

01:15:13.520 They care about the Alamo.

01:15:14.620 They've got this whole national narrative and it, it helps keep them together and they provide strong leadership for Hispanics and Hispanics are less, you know, domineering than people were talking about in the past.

01:15:34.000 They're, they kind of look around at their upper middle class neighbors and go, Oh, okay.

01:15:37.920 What do you, what do you do?

01:15:38.680 Oh, you're a Republican.

01:15:39.840 Okay.

01:15:40.920 That sounds pretty cool.

01:15:42.120 Well, I might be a Republican too.

01:15:43.540 California, you know, the upper middle classes is, is democratic.

01:15:48.600 So the Hispanics follow that lead. 1.00

01:15:51.880 Um, so I can't tell, you know, exactly where it'll go.

01:15:58.000 How does Trump change that?

01:15:59.320 I mean, it, it feels anecdotally like a lot of Latin American immigrants like Trump.

01:16:07.600 I mean, what, what Trump has done is he's taken the appeal of the Republican party, uh, downscale compared to say Mitt Romney, uh, Mitt did a pretty good job of holding on to suburban upper middle class, the frequent flyer population, uh, corporate executives and things like that.

01:16:30.800 They feel one with him, uh, you know, uh, you know, Trump is picking up working class people of all races.

01:16:38.600 Uh, that's good. 0.96

01:16:39.480 But, uh, you know, it's, it also is kind of taking, uh, the Republican party, uh, downscale intellectually, uh, you know, you're getting more dumb conspiracy theories out of Republicans, et cetera.

01:16:53.880 Um, you know, it's, if, if, if, can the Republicans keep some competent, uh, higher brow people around, you know, that's another question.

01:17:08.780 What do you think?

01:17:10.860 I mean, a big, a big question is how much is this totally a, uh, a hit Trump's personality?

01:17:20.940 I mean, you know, 2020, 2024, it looked like Ron DeSantis had like studied Trump and said, okay, Trump's got some interesting new ideas and post Romney ideas.

01:17:35.280 And I'm the competent, uh, well-educated guy who reads all the fine print and I can, I can implement some of these.

01:17:43.720 And that didn't seem like a bad pitch, uh, but just went, didn't go over at all.

01:17:51.540 I, you know, as soon as the Democrats started, started arresting Trump for all sorts of charges, then, you know, that, that helped solve the Democratic nightmare that the Republicans were going to nominate a, a competent 40 something to run against their octogenary incumbent.

01:18:13.720 And, and so now we were stuck with a, with a rerun of, of, of 2020.

01:18:18.720 So you think that's, that's what it was?

01:18:20.260 It was the legal persecution of Trump.

01:18:23.640 Yeah.

01:18:24.120 It seemed like that blunted DeSantis and basically Republicans went back to Trump and went like, well, if the Democrats are going to do that, then we're going to stand by Trump.

01:18:34.920 And, uh, you know, if the, you know, the arresting a major candidate is un-American, it's, it's totally shameful in the United States history.

01:18:50.120 And the Democrats didn't get in the way and go like, oh, let's, let's not do that.

01:18:55.800 They let local politicians, you know, kind of run amok like this New York case.

01:19:03.000 And, and so they got the, they got the nominee they wanted, uh, Donald Trump, but now they're, now they're real worried that they're going to get the president.

01:19:12.820 They don't want Donald Trump.

01:19:14.320 So we shall see.

01:19:18.280 So you're the, the reason that you've emerged from your cave in Tora Bora, uh, coming to the, sorry, um, is because you've got a book.

01:19:29.800 Yeah.

01:19:30.400 It's a beautiful looking book.

01:19:32.400 Um, and it's collected, uh, journalism, 1973 to 2023.

01:19:40.120 Um, you don't look that old, uh, but it's called noticing.

01:19:43.680 What does that mean?

01:19:45.400 Yeah.

01:19:45.760 Um, I'll hold it up here.

01:19:48.320 Uh, I mean, it, it's, it's a slogan that I took from George Orwell, who said that to, to see what's in front of one's nose takes a constant effort.

01:20:01.640 And I'm trying to make it easier for people to notice the realities that they see around them.

01:20:09.400 Um, and to, uh, to, to, to understand that what they see with their own lying eyes in their daily life is also actually validated by the best of the social sciences.

01:20:24.740 And that there, that there aren't these two different realms of existence, this kind of tawdry sublunary one where we make decisions about what neighborhoods our family should live in.

01:20:40.540 And then what's, what are good schools for the kids?

01:20:43.400 And then this, this higher, more, uh, the realm of the science.

01:20:49.360 The world of data.

01:20:50.300 Yeah.

01:20:50.580 The world of data that proves that all those things you notice in your daily life can't possibly be true because then that would be a stereotype.

01:21:00.320 And my view is not, it's all connected.

01:21:03.780 There's just one reality out there.

01:21:06.060 It goes from your personal anecdotes to what people might dismiss as anecdata to the data.

01:21:13.360 And it all tells pretty much the same story.

01:21:17.540 So, but why is it, I mean, I, we don't need to get into COVID, but I just noticed from the very beginning, I never knew anyone.

01:21:23.620 I know people died of COVID.

01:21:24.840 I never knew anyone who died of COVID.

01:21:26.380 I did know someone who died from the facts and a number of other people who were injured pretty conclusively by the facts.

01:21:31.880 That doesn't mean that more people were injured by the facts than died of COVID.

01:21:36.120 I'm not saying that, but then I started to ask around, you know, do you know anyone who died of COVID?

01:21:39.700 Do you know anyone?

01:21:40.340 Like actually, no one, have you a dinner with anyone who later died of COVID?

01:21:43.920 Do you know anyone who was injured by the facts?

01:21:45.180 And I don't think I've ever met a single person who didn't have the same answer I did.

01:21:50.300 Whether that's reality or not, I still don't know.

01:21:52.180 But I do know there's been such an effort to tell me that I'm crazy for noticing that.

01:21:57.940 Yeah.

01:21:58.200 One thing I used to do was go through the list of, on Wikipedia, prominent people who have died of COVID.

01:22:07.480 And the thing I noticed about it was that they were almost all people who were no longer in their primes that, oh, like I saw, like, oh, baseball pitcher, Hall of Famer Tom Seaver has died at age 74 of COVID.

01:22:29.000 And then I looked up a little more about him and I was like, well, you know, he probably would have had another good couple of decades going to old timers, games and stuff like that.

01:22:40.000 But then it turned out that he dropped out of public life the year before because he had dementia and Parkinson's.

01:22:49.060 Yeah, just general, he didn't have a good life ahead of him.

01:22:53.480 And so I think that's one of the things that was going on was that COVID was really taking a toll among people who had passed their primes and were toward the last decade of their lives and weren't no longer in the public eye.

01:23:14.720 And so that sort of helps explain the thesis that, yeah, there was a lot of COVID deaths, the antithesis that like, you know, it's not like anybody I was like met and I knew at work dropped dead of COVID.

01:23:29.700 And then you get the synthesis of like, oh, yeah, it mostly killed off people who were probably close to retirement, retired in ill health from other things and so on.

01:23:47.600 So I think what's interesting is the point of social science, to example, there was a point was to bring the principles of science of the scientific method to bear on the world just right around us and to make it clear what we were actually seeing.

01:24:00.540 Yeah, I think.

01:24:01.960 Yeah.

01:24:02.380 And but it seems like its use at least over the past several years has been to do the opposite, which is to obscure what we're actually seeing, living, experiencing and tell us a story that's not true.

01:24:15.080 Yeah.

01:24:15.900 Is that my imagination?

01:24:16.980 No, it's I mean, the issue is that so much data has piled up that you can we can now answer quite a few questions that were beyond our capability beforehand.

01:24:31.860 I mean, and the answers we keep getting are the political are generally politically incorrect ones that were anticipated by the bad people, the Charles Murray's and James Q Wilson's in the 20th century.

01:24:49.220 So, for example, we have an enormous amount of data from DNA that tells us about our racial ancestry and what have we discovered in that in this century?

01:25:03.300 Did the conventional wisdom that race does not biologically exist to be proven?

01:25:10.880 No, of course not.

01:25:11.900 You can you can call up Ancestry.com or 23andMe and they'll tell you your race to three digits.

01:25:20.820 You know, they'll tell you, you know, you know, if you're if you're Jewish, they'll tell you, you know, you're forty nine point eight percent Ashkenazi.

01:25:30.160 Other data is piling up.

01:25:33.020 There's a Harvard economist named Raj Chetty, who's done phenomenal work talking government bureaucracies into letting him work with totally confidential data like like the tax returns of everybody in the country.

01:25:50.160 And so he can do studies that nobody had ever had the chutzpah to dream before that they never get the hands on the data.

01:25:59.700 So, for example, he gets he tracked twenty one million Americans across 30 years of their lives from he looked at how much money their parents made in the 1990s.

01:26:12.660 And then he looked at things like were they in jail on census day, January, April 1st, 19th, 2010, when they were about 30 years old.

01:26:24.320 And so then he could plot out what's what are the odds of of a man being in jail based on how poor rich his parents were.

01:26:36.160 And not surprisingly, poor poor guys who grew up poor go to jail a lot more.

01:26:42.280 But he could also answer using data from the Census Bureau what the race was of all 21 million of his people.

01:26:49.540 And he discovered, yeah, in general, blacks who had the exact same income as whites growing up as kids in the 90s in 2010 were in jail three to ten times more often than whites who were their exact peers in terms of family income.

01:27:11.380 And this this is like, wow, I never expected somebody to be able to come up with that.

01:27:16.500 And it goes, yeah. So when people wonder why are blacks in jail more often, is it is it poverty?

01:27:27.040 And poverty plays a role. But even without poverty, you take it all the way at the highest level blacks at the at the highest percentile blacks go to jail about ten times as often as as the richest whites. 0.93

01:27:41.040 So we're able to answer all sorts of social science questions these days, but nobody likes the answers they're getting.

01:27:52.180 Well, it did seem like when we finally unraveled the human genome.

01:27:57.940 Which was right around the time the bell curve came out ish.

01:28:00.760 Yeah.

01:28:02.220 That's when the whole conversation got shut down.

01:28:04.340 Yeah.

01:28:04.760 Maybe we had too much information.

01:28:06.080 What happened at a ceremony that Bill Clinton put on in the presidential Rose Garden in 2000 for the Human Genome Project,

01:28:22.340 they just sort of made progress decoding a single genome, which was mostly that of entrepreneur Craig Venter,

01:28:29.720 who'd helped out enormously, and Craig got up and made a speech that was exactly what the zeitgeist wanted to hear.

01:28:39.580 He said, we've looked at the human genome or his human genome, and we discovered the one thing you can't see in it is race.

01:28:50.080 There's no difference whatsoever genetically between different genomes in terms of racial ancestry.

01:29:00.180 Well, then within three, four, five years, the evidence was piling up.

01:29:05.560 It was like, no, actually, you can tell exactly what the ancestry of people is.

01:29:10.920 It became a sizable business very quickly.

01:29:14.160 But as far as I can tell, a huge fraction of the population remembers hearing that the science has proven that race doesn't exist genetically,

01:29:27.380 and they've never rethought it since that 2000 speech by Venter standing next to Bill Clinton.

01:29:36.240 So people want to believe some things.

01:29:41.660 They want to believe that the science has proven all of this anti-racist dogmas that they get told,

01:29:49.880 and they just sort of ignore that, no, it's actually moving in the other direction.

01:29:54.240 It's time that we think realistically about, you know, what the data is telling us.

01:30:02.240 And, you know, personally, I don't think it's the end of the world by any means.

01:30:07.600 And I think we can all get along pretty well knowing the realities.

01:30:13.660 But a lot of people are just terrified of them and basically want to lie about it.

01:30:18.760 I mean, the way that previous civilizations held together in the face of knowledge of genetic and racial differences,

01:30:25.480 which are obviously real, but they weren't always at war with themselves.

01:30:30.220 And one of the ways they did that was by believing in a religious doctrine that said God created everybody.

01:30:36.600 Therefore, despite whatever differences we have, we are all of equal value.

01:30:40.660 Without that overlay, which we no longer have, how do you keep a society together in the face of these realities?

01:30:47.720 Yeah, I mean, the Democrats have been moving toward a sort of Nazi-type solution of having a scapegoat 0.67

01:31:03.460 who unites everybody else by being the locus of evil, namely whites. 1.00

01:31:11.720 Or, you know, in the way the Democratic works, it's all sorts of circles within circles. 0.93

01:31:17.880 So you get more Pokemon points for being non-white. 0.98

01:31:21.760 You get diversity points for being a woman.

01:31:25.280 You get more diversity points if you were born a man, et cetera, et cetera.

01:31:30.640 But, yeah, unifying around a scapegoat population, that does not have a good track record.

01:31:40.200 What happens in the end?

01:31:41.380 What happens in the end?

01:31:44.540 We don't know.

01:31:46.420 Does it get worse?

01:31:48.600 Or one of the things we see maybe over the last year is people just objecting to it and pushing back

01:31:59.040 and laughing at the conventional wisdom and scoffing at it and saying, you know,

01:32:06.540 you guys are just making this up.

01:32:08.700 It's not true.

01:32:09.640 You're just saying it so you can get DEI money and easy sinecure jobs.

01:32:15.180 And, you know, we don't believe this.

01:32:31.140 One thing ambitious people are doing, and you've written about this, is just denying being white. 0.61

01:32:37.040 Yeah.

01:32:37.900 And the flight from white.

01:32:39.840 What is that?

01:32:40.940 Flight from white has a lot of different dimensions.

01:32:43.640 It's people, it's kids applying to college and remembering their grandmother was,

01:32:54.380 their Irish grandmother was born in Buenos Aires before she went back to Ireland.

01:33:01.460 And in Argentina, the whitest country in the world.

01:33:04.580 Yeah. 1.00

01:33:05.860 It's so stupid. 1.00

01:33:07.380 But it's also happening at the government level, the census and so forth. 1.00

01:33:13.920 So the Biden administration just recently announced that they're allowing Middle Easterners and North Africans

01:33:23.640 to have their own racial category, M-E-N-A, so that they don't have the unprofitable, 1.00

01:33:33.580 ignominious fate of having to check white or Caucasian. 1.00

01:33:37.520 And this has a long tradition in the United States.

01:33:43.200 If you go back to in the 1970s, South Asians were classified as white.

01:33:50.100 But that really annoyed the South Asian businessmen because East Asian businessmen were getting all sorts of low-interest loans from the SBA as a minority.

01:34:02.000 They were getting contracting preferences on government deals.

01:34:06.940 And the South Asian organizations got themselves declared to be Asian and grouped in with the Orientals and formed the new Asian group

01:34:25.400 so they could get these good deals from the government that white people are not entitled to. 0.86

01:34:31.080 And so that was an early example of flight from white. 0.88

01:34:37.160 You see it with the Hispanics increasingly. 1.00

01:34:42.840 Originally, when the Hispanic category was created, it was set up so Hispanics could get good deals from the government 0.84

01:34:50.180 and get good affirmative action benefits, but without actually declaring themselves to be racially white

01:34:57.540 because a lot of them were kind of took pride in their, they took racist pride in their blue-blooded Spanish heritage and so forth.

01:35:07.400 Well, there's an awful lot of that in Latin America.

01:35:09.500 So they increased, so they could set up a separate ethnicity for Hispanics

01:35:16.580 so you could get all the affirmative action benefits without actually admitting your shame of being white. 0.92

01:35:23.640 But enough time has gone by that, you know, only your, you know, your Fuentes types anymore are like really publicly white racist from Latin America. 0.87

01:35:37.400 And, and now it's more prestigious to declare yourself racially.

01:35:43.720 I'm Hispanic, even though nobody's exactly sure what that means.

01:35:47.220 So what does it mean?

01:35:48.840 I'm, I'm confused too, because it, would that include Brazil, which is of course a different language?

01:35:54.940 It's not right.

01:35:56.140 And a different colonial power.

01:35:59.140 And, but of course it's a multiracial country, heavily black country as our, as is Cuba, which is Spanish.

01:36:06.300 I mean, it's like, I don't understand what, what does the word mean?

01:36:09.120 Uh, yes, is, is, is Brazil, are Brazilians and Portuguese included in Hispanics or are they Lusitanics?

01:36:19.440 And according to a book I read by David Bernstein, uh, categorized, I believe it was called, uh, law professor.

01:36:30.140 He said that most of the federal government will not give you a break on federal contracting.

01:36:37.820 If you, if you put down your Brazilian, except the department of transportation, they'll, they'll give you racial preferences for bidding on a highway overpass or something like that. 0.73

01:36:49.960 If you're Brazilian, they'll, they'll include them in the Hispanics. 0.99

01:36:54.080 So it's, I mean, we live, we live in a society that's increasingly mixed in terms of ancestry.

01:37:03.160 So we have more and more people coming out who are a quarter of this and a quarter of that.

01:37:08.940 And there's lots of money on the table.

01:37:13.240 And as long as you're not, as long as you don't declare yourself white, you've got all sorts of opportunities to, to get freebies from the government. 0.92

01:37:20.600 I wonder how long this can go on though, before it just blows up the country.

01:37:23.380 I mean, is there any chance of getting back to an, a, a, a race blind posture officially by the, by the federal government?

01:37:31.880 I mean, you can have whatever opinions you want on race, but the government, which represents everybody has to treat American citizens equally as citizens.

01:37:39.280 Is there any hope for that?

01:37:40.620 I mean, the Supreme Court nominally outlawed affirmative action in colleges, like, because Harvard was clearly, clearly discriminating against Asians.

01:37:51.460 Um, on the other hand, um, on the other hand, they left huge loopholes like, oh, well, yeah, you can write about your race in your essay.

01:38:01.940 And, uh, you know, the admissions department can then go, oh, this kid is, you know, black, so we'll give him, you know, 50 extra Pokemon points on his application.

01:38:13.840 Um, I mean, the, one issue is that the, that Asian students are pulling away so fast from everybody else in terms of things like SAT scores, that the, uh, the Asian black, uh, gaps are opening up so widely.

01:38:33.840 That if you go to total colorblind college admissions at the high end, you end up with a campus with very, very few blacks qualifying to get in and a huge number of Asians and places like Harvard really worry about whether they might turn out like Yogi Berra's former favorite restaurant that got so popular that nobody goes there anymore.

01:39:02.100 So if, if, if Harvard becomes 56% Asian, are, are Asians going to consider Harvard cool or do Asians want to go to places that there's a lot of white, white people there?

01:39:14.860 Um, you know, nobody really knows.

01:39:17.340 And, uh, you know, what I don't, what I don't know is whether the, the Asian, uh, rise, the rise in Asian SAT scores is completely legitimate.

01:39:30.800 And they just really have been getting so much smarter than everybody else in the 21st century, the Asian test scores are pulling away from the field, like secretariat in the 1973 Belmont or, you know, 0.92

01:39:46.020 Or could there be other reasons?

01:39:47.220 Yeah.

01:39:47.540 Could, could it be, I mean, we know there's a lot of cheating in Asia itself on the SAT.

01:39:53.280 Um, we know, I don't think people bring their bad habits when they come here.

01:39:57.940 Do you?

01:39:59.580 Yeah.

01:39:59.980 I mean, I mean, nobody can possibly communicate across the Pacific ocean.

01:40:04.220 It's thousands of miles wide.

01:40:05.980 How could anybody text message what was on the test, um, or, you know, just the, the enormous amount of tiger mother, uh, prep that Asians brought with them from their 2000 year old tradition of taking tests to become mandarins and, and doing enormous amounts of test prep for years. 0.95

01:40:29.040 Or is it, or is it, is it, or there's possible technical reasons that the, the people making the SAT have been criticized for one thing or another for discriminating against blacks and Latinos.

01:40:43.820 So they keep doing things like let's get rid of analogies and that'll be fair, but it winds up just benefiting the Asians. 1.00

01:40:51.600 Most of all, Oh, it, it was more of a, the, when they had analogies, it was, it was harder to memorize apparently.

01:41:01.980 And the test prep didn't work as well.

01:41:04.480 It took a certain amount of creativity and kind of insight in the brain.

01:41:10.860 And, uh, but the university of California demanded getting rid of analogies about 20 years ago.

01:41:18.980 So the college board said, yeah, sure.

01:41:21.280 You're our biggest customer.

01:41:22.240 We'll do what you want.

01:41:23.220 And, and things just sort of got worse after that.

01:41:26.240 And, but, but there has been a noticeable rise, relative rise in Asian SAT.

01:41:32.760 Yes, huge, huge, huge, since, since the year 2000.

01:41:37.320 And I think basically we should have, you know, blue ribbon commission to look into like what's going on exactly with the SAT.

01:41:46.400 Um, you know, I mean, that's, that's one reason, uh, that COVID came.

01:41:54.180 Yeah.

01:41:54.520 I'm sorry, just before you say that, but does it still matter?

01:41:57.280 I mean, is that the trend of schools getting rid of the SAT requirement?

01:42:01.060 Is that real?

01:42:01.820 Or are they.

01:42:02.480 Yeah, definitely.

01:42:03.700 It all happened that during COVID and the racial reckoning at once, all the colleges went, well, they had to, they had to cancel some, some SAT tests because they had to be six feet apart and they couldn't fit in the classroom, et cetera.

01:42:18.760 Uh, and then, then they all decided that due to the racial reckoning that they weren't going to take SATs.

01:42:25.460 And in fact, they're going to make it go totally test optional.

01:42:29.480 And the university of California went further.

01:42:31.960 They banned the applicants from submitting any kind of test score.

01:42:36.960 And then what happened was that the colleges started noticing like, wow, these kids who are showing up that we let in, they're not very bright.

01:42:48.500 They are not going to become computer science graduates of MIT. 0.99

01:42:54.000 So MIT was the first one that went, ah, this was stupid. 0.97

01:42:57.520 We're going back to demanding, uh, standardized tests. 0.99

01:43:01.880 And now Harvard's jumped on board.

01:43:04.240 Everybody except the university of California at the elite level is moving in that direction, uh, because it, it was.

01:43:12.060 So it is, it is a measure of aptitude.

01:43:13.720 Yeah.

01:43:14.160 And it, yeah, it's, it's a very good measure of aptitude.

01:43:17.420 It tells, you know, GPA, high school GPA is a great measure, but it's hard to compare schools.

01:43:24.000 Some schools are hard in grades.

01:43:26.400 Some are easy.

01:43:26.940 Um, having, having this, uh, having a test and having high school grades, you can put them together and they work pretty well.

01:43:35.360 Uh, but because, because of the racial gaps that have been around forever and these things, uh, it was decided during the racial reckoning that that absolutely proves as Ibram X. 0.54

01:43:48.880 Kendi has demonstrated by scientific logic that, um, the only reason some races might be doing better than other races is because of the evil of whiteness.

01:44:03.860 But of course, what it turns out is the Asians are doing much, much better.

01:44:08.440 And because of the evil of whiteness, uh, because nobody really knows because nobody's that interested in studying it because it sounds like the kind of thing you could get canceled. 0.76

01:44:18.880 We're finding out and, um, just in general, we have a lot of problems that have been swept under the rug in, in recent years because they don't fit within the ideologies, the, the woke ideologies.

01:44:33.480 Um, and just to, to, to think about them is kind of dangerous sounding.

01:44:39.300 When the planes start crashing.

01:44:40.580 Yeah.

01:44:41.320 Will people start thinking about them?

01:44:42.960 I, I, I hope so.

01:44:45.140 I mean, my, my father worked for Lockheed from the late thirties to the 1980s.

01:44:50.200 And when one of his planes crashed, uh, he'd spend two months on the site because when a plane hits the ground, it spreads out over a mile or so.

01:45:01.380 Picking up all the pieces of the plane so they could reassemble it.

01:45:06.660 And there's a jigsaw puzzle and figure out why it crashed and also picking up pieces of the pilots and the passengers and so forth.

01:45:14.920 And over, you know, the last hundred years, people who were picked because they were smart and hardworking have done a whole lot of good at getting airplanes.

01:45:28.300 So they don't crash very much anymore.

01:45:31.820 Now, Boeing may be working on reversing a lot of that history, but, uh, yeah, I, you know, we, we got a lot better at things by having systems to find people who were competent and work hard.

01:45:49.080 And now the zeitgeist in the 21st century has been moving away from that, uh, will we see a lot of planes crashing?

01:45:59.180 God, I hope not.

01:46:00.660 But, you know, we, we need to, to, we need to make 180 degree U-turn in terms of what we value, whether it's competence or diversity.

01:46:10.980 And, you know, lately diversity has been winning and that's going to get people killed. 1.00

01:46:17.040 Is there a point, I mean, I'm asking these questions because South Africa, you know, tried this and the country is just continuously degraded for, well, 30 years this year.

01:46:26.200 And to the point where there's no electricity in parts at times and the murder rate is among the highest in the world.

01:46:32.220 The rape rate is the highest in the world.

01:46:33.680 And, but there's no deceleration that I can tell from afar, thousands of miles away, but I'm watching and it's like, no, there's no second guessing.

01:46:41.500 It's just like going to ride it right back to the stone age, pretend it was never an advanced society in our country, which is different from South Africa in a lot of ways. 0.71

01:46:51.900 Will there be a point, like when the planes do crash and the air traffic controllers are just high or too dumb or distract or don't care to keep the planes from crashing?

01:47:02.760 Will there be a public demand?

01:47:04.200 Like, no, no, no.

01:47:04.640 Let's just hire viability from now on. 0.64

01:47:07.800 Well, what we've seen is what we saw with what we talked about earlier, homicides and car crashes, huge increases, and we've seen some pushback against that.

01:47:25.800 But, you know, the establishment doesn't really want to talk about why that happened because it's embarrassing for them.

01:47:35.420 On the other hand, the airplanes, you know, important people fly a lot more than unimportant people do.

01:47:44.000 And that's one reason we have, like, pretty strict rules about who can be a pilot.

01:47:50.200 There was a plane crash in 2009.

01:47:53.820 Congressmen take a lot of flights to get back to their home district.

01:47:58.480 The one in Buffalo?

01:47:59.060 Yeah, so they immediately passed some laws that made it harder to become a pilot.

01:48:07.960 And there hasn't been a fatal plane crash of an American airliner since then.

01:48:16.940 And, you know, some of it is we just, we got really good pilots these days, in part because congressmen worry about stuff like that.

01:48:24.860 But now are we, you know, but on the other hand, the Obama administration came along and basically sabotaged the system for hiring air traffic controllers.

01:48:38.640 And Congress had set up a pretty good system for finding good people in the 90s.

01:48:48.260 But, yeah, it turned out that it's like white men really like air traffic. 0.64

01:48:53.140 They really like airplanes.

01:48:54.800 It's like, you know, what have white men ever done with airplanes since the Wright brothers? 0.98

01:48:59.620 So there were too many whites, so the Obama administration came up with a totally absurd, corrupt test to hire more black guys.

01:49:11.800 And so what happens is then you get fewer people still make it through the training. 0.88

01:49:18.900 So the training has been kept pretty legitimate.

01:49:21.440 So you flunk out more people, which then means that you're under the number of air traffic controllers you expected.

01:49:31.260 So you're making them work really long hours and they're getting more and more tired on the job and they're making mistakes and stuff like that.

01:49:39.960 And it tracks back to the Obama administration's DEI program for air traffic controllers.

01:49:47.760 Can we avoid that?

01:49:49.640 But, yeah, we can.

01:49:52.080 We just got to talk about it.

01:49:54.240 And we just can't just shut down discussion by saying, are you saying that, you know, a stereotype that on average blacks wouldn't make as good air traffic controllers as whites?

01:50:06.120 And the answer is, yeah, yeah, I'm saying that.

01:50:08.380 So you expect to have a fewer percentage passing the test.

01:50:12.160 And we can live with it.

01:50:13.920 We live with it every day in sports, that there are racial differences in performance on average, and nobody cares that much. 0.99

01:50:25.100 And, you know, God bless them.

01:50:27.300 We love sports.

01:50:28.440 So, yeah, there is hope for the country that we can go back and have a philosophy for, you know, for things like jet travel that we consider it as important as the NFL, and therefore we can't have, you know, racial quotas getting in the way.

01:50:46.200 And that doesn't seem outlandish.

01:50:50.260 No, it doesn't.

01:50:51.800 So last question, and I sort of began with this, but maybe you've, I just want to push a little more.

01:50:58.680 Why do you think that you're able to have these conversations, and when you travel the country talking about your book, you're not attacked?

01:51:06.860 And, you know, speaking of good signs, do you take that as a good sign that the country's becoming more open?

01:51:18.160 Well, yeah, somebody suggested to me, it's like, well, Steve, you're in the best possible position.

01:51:26.240 It's the fourth year of a Democratic president, everybody's sick of Biden, but if Trump gets elected, then there will be an enormous effort on the part of the establishment to crack down on, you know, honest dissident voices that lead to horrible outcomes like Trump getting reelected.

01:51:49.480 And if Biden wins, then they'll go, oh, we've got four more years, and we've really got to change things, so we never let Trump win, Trump's type people win again.

01:52:05.820 So it could be a short-term thaw, or it could be that enough people have noticed and have been empowered by changes like Elon Musk opening up Twitter so that, you know, I can have 125,000 followers.

01:52:29.020 There's just, you know, the accumulation of little changes like that, that, you know, these ideas that I've been propounding for 30 years and have people out there going, yeah, Sailor's ideas, they make sense.

01:52:44.420 He's like the most reasonable guy in America.

01:52:46.800 Maybe, you know, maybe, you know, we've gone through a watershed and we're beyond the mania of the racial reckoning and the great awokening.

01:53:00.500 Knock on wood, I hope so.

01:53:02.760 Or this period 10 years from now is described as the Dark Ages where Steve Saylor was actually in public.

01:53:09.560 Yeah, I mean.

01:53:10.340 Face uncovered.

01:53:13.140 I mean, what do you think?

01:53:14.920 I mean, all right, let me ask you, why me in particular that I became sort of the Lord Voldemort whose name cannot be mentioned when I'm just, you know, this kind of, to my mind, this very kind of public-spirited, benevolent guy who can see both sides of various problems.

01:53:42.620 Well, I've always thought that, I've always thought that you were particularly threatening because you're so obviously moderate by temperament.

01:53:52.220 You're just clearly not a hater.

01:53:54.080 You can smell that on people instantly.

01:53:55.780 Secondly, you're very reasonable and you use the language that the left would like to keep for itself, like of science, of reason, of data.

01:54:08.160 Yeah.

01:54:08.240 And you actually argue from that basis and they'd like a monopoly on that.

01:54:14.200 And so there's something really threatening about a guy who's like, no, actually, no, here are the numbers and doesn't raise his voice.

01:54:20.000 Because that's way more threatening than some guy who's jumping up and down on cable news or, you know, sending crazed tweets all day long.

01:54:29.820 That person is, you know, his potential audience is much smaller than yours.

01:54:33.580 Your potential audience is like, you know, sort of any open-minded person who'd like to solve a problem.

01:54:37.400 So that's always been my thought.

01:54:40.340 Yeah.

01:54:40.980 Yeah.

01:54:41.560 I hope so.

01:54:43.840 But yeah, it's been, you know, a long, strange trip.

01:54:51.500 But...

01:54:52.100 Did it bother you when they called you a Nazi or white supremacist or when they threw these slurs at you for so long? 0.60

01:54:58.800 I mean, I didn't, it seemed ridiculous, but it also didn't seem like, it also seemed like what they want to do is get you into a position where it's like, oh, I'm not one of those horrible people. 0.55

01:55:19.020 Well, here's, these six guys are the really horrible people and, and get me to condemn people who, you know, get to drive them out of publicity.

01:55:34.220 You know, it's kind of the way, you know, you hear liberals talk about, well, the great thing about William F. Buckley was he, he cracked down on Pat Buchanan.

01:55:46.240 And, all right, and my, I never met Mr. Buckley.

01:55:51.280 You know, I worked for National Review, wrote for National Review in the 90s.

01:55:55.980 But I did, I did meet Mr. Buchanan and, you know, Pat was a great guy.

01:56:02.840 I mean, I mean, one of my last memories of my father before he died at 95 was Pat sent me one of his new books.

01:56:12.160 And he'd gone through and put post-it notes on every page where he quoted me or made a reference to some concept of mine.

01:56:21.480 So, I showed it to my dad and he read it.

01:56:24.800 He looked through at all the things that Pat had, with his own hand, had said, all the nice things he'd said about me.

01:56:32.140 And was like, wow, you're, this is great.

01:56:34.400 And, you know, that was like the last thing, last interaction before he died.

01:56:39.000 And I, I thank Pat Buchanan for it.

01:56:41.940 And a lot of people have good stories about Pat Buchanan.

01:56:45.040 What a, what a nice man.

01:56:46.220 Yes, absolutely.

01:56:48.280 You know.

01:56:49.960 So, I mean, I, I guess it could kind of go either way.

01:56:53.640 It depends on who's writing the history.

01:56:55.080 I mean, I'd bet, I'd bet money that, you know, Pat Buchanan is described in 50 years when there's not a single living person who actually knew him.

01:57:02.900 Um, you know, some sort of monster or hater or something like that.

01:57:06.980 Wouldn't you think?

01:57:08.380 Yeah.

01:57:09.060 I mean, I mean, they say history is written by the winners.

01:57:14.620 Uh, my impression is more history is written by historians who got paid by one side or the other, not necessarily the winners, to write the history.

01:57:24.460 So, you know, for a hundred years after the Civil War in the United States, the South, which was mostly pretty broke, but they could still scrape together enough money to pay historians to write the story of the lost cause.

01:57:38.720 And, uh, so most of our history books were, we're kind of biased in favor of the South.

01:57:44.740 Um, you know, what's, how we're going to remember, you know, our time, I don't know.

01:57:53.000 Um, but, uh, you know, it, it could go, it, it could change very much.

01:57:59.460 And, you know, maybe, maybe we'll have different heroes all of a sudden, you know, that's, that's, maybe you and, you and me will look, come out looking pretty good with this.

01:58:09.980 Well, I have trouble believing that, but I, I admire you.

01:58:13.660 Well, me too, but.

01:58:15.860 Steve Sower, thank you very much.

01:58:16.980 All right.

01:58:17.660 Thank you, Tucker.

01:58:18.800 Thanks.

01:58:19.240 Thanks for listening to the Tucker Carlson show.

01:58:23.340 If you enjoyed it, you can go to Tucker Carlson.com to see everything that we have made the complete library.

01:58:29.860 Tucker Carlson.com.

The Tucker Carlson Show - June 25, 2024

Steve Sailer： BLM, Karens, Donald Trump, and What Democrats Don’t Want You to Know about DEI

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