On the morning of the Trump Inauguration, I went to church. It was freezing outside, and Miriam Adelson walked right in like she owned the place. I remember thinking, "I hope this is an omen of things to come."
00:00:00.000I was thinking last night when Massey lost in Kentucky, I was thinking back to Trump's inauguration, the morning of the Trump inauguration, which amazingly was only last year, last January, January 20th.
00:00:11.940And I was in Washington for that, and Trump invited me to church on the morning before he was sworn in, and so, of course, I went.
00:00:19.480And it was at St. John's, the Episcopal Church in Lafayette Square, where pretty much every president has gone on the morning of the inauguration.
00:00:25.960So I showed up, happens to be my denomination, the Episcopal Church, so I know the church
00:01:46.020Do I know vaguely? Not really. But I knew that she was the biggest or one of the biggest donors to the Trump campaign in Israeli, born in Israel, widow of Sheldon Adelson, the biggest Republican donor, the casino magnet.
00:02:00.740But more than anything, a fervent neocon. Her main issue is American support for Israel. She says this. It's not a secret. And she spends accordingly.
00:02:09.300and she brushes past me, I remember thinking this, and everybody else and just walks right0.80
00:02:15.940in like she owns the place. And I remember thinking, hmm, I hope this isn't an omen.
00:02:22.100I hope it's not a sign of things to come. It feels a little bit like a metaphor.
00:02:26.080I hope that's not real. So I kind of sublimated it, tried not to think about it, finally got
00:02:31.480into church, sat alone in a pew with Charlie Kirk, had a great time. We were both almost
00:02:37.800jubilant, really, that Trump had been elected. We didn't think he would, but he did. And we were
00:02:43.860thrilled, not just because we like Trump, which we did because he's hilarious and fun to talk to
00:02:48.280and interesting, but because he ran on ideas that we agreed with really strongly. And first among
00:02:57.240them was the idea, self-evident really, that the U.S. government ought to serve, in fact, it exists
00:03:03.220to serve the interests of American citizens. And it really has no other role in the world. Doesn't
00:03:07.920mean it has to strike a bellicose posture toward anyone else. Hurting other people isn't necessary,
00:03:12.720but helping your own people is the only reason you exist if you're the U.S. government or one
00:03:17.200of its many employees. And the American president should proceed from that commitment. I am here to
00:03:24.260serve my people as a father does with his children, an officer with his men, etc. That's leadership.
00:03:29.780service to the people you lead and a love for those people and both of us were convinced at
00:03:36.080the time that Donald Trump was that man that he was truly America first and because he was
00:03:42.100this would be a great moment for our country a much needed relief from a worldview that put
00:03:49.560America at the bottom of its concerns but that would also change the Republican Party which
00:03:55.120was meaningful because the Republican Party along with Trump had just taken total control of the
00:03:58.460country. Both houses in Congress, House and Senate, the White House, majority of the Supreme
00:04:06.460Court appointed by Republicans, the Republicans were in charge. And we hoped and at the moment
00:04:11.280we believed that the Republican Party would change along with Trump its new leader and that it would
00:04:17.340change in one specific way. It would come to put the concerns of Americans first, period. That's
00:04:22.920it. We can argue about how best to serve them, but serving them has to be the goal.
00:04:27.740And so we imagine, Charlie Kirk and I, we may have talked about this in The Pew, that we would see the Republican Party suddenly populated by a lot of people like, well, like Thomas Massey.
00:04:37.620I can't remember if we actually talked about Thomas Massey, but we had before and Charlie Kirk had talked a lot about Thomas Massey.
00:04:45.120And Charlie Kirk loved Thomas Massey, not just as a person because he was honest and decent, but because Thomas Massey's orientation was purely about what's best for the country.
00:04:54.480And again, he said it many times, including in this representative interview of Thomas
00:17:04.700Here you have a guy who's entangled with multiple intel agencies from a bunch of different countries, notably the United States and Israel, but also British intelligence, probably the French, the usual panoply.
00:17:16.320And he's running around the world as an arms dealer and a connector, and he's got some relationship to 9-11.
00:28:05.400And part of the rationale, maybe the main rationale for having CBS News at all at this point is to ask questions like that.
00:28:12.160If you didn't know those facts, you might think, well, that's just the mainstream media, the lamestream media.
00:28:18.420Using the same tactics they always have, slander, innuendo, attacks posing as questions, not bothering to listen to the answer, totally interested in the reality of anything, pushing an agenda.
00:28:32.580But what's so revealing is that it wasn't just liberal mainstream CBS news.
00:28:40.300It was what's often incorrectly described as the far right, the far right.
00:28:47.760Far right, meaning, I don't know, anyone who's against mass migration who raises his voice or something.
00:28:54.680But that would include Mark Levin, someone who spent a lot of his life denouncing the lamestream media.
00:29:04.560And yet, if you listen to Mark Levin's critique of the Massey race, it's identical to the CBS News critique of the race, which is Massey has no valid points.
00:29:16.900It's impossible to imagine Massey could be opposing aid to Israel, except out of personal
00:35:48.940So Massey's point is, this guy who refused to have a single debate with the incumbent, not one, who has no obvious support in the district, this guy only has a chance because AIPAC, from whom I've never taken a dollar, the only Republican who's never taken money from AIPAC, AIPAC is on his side.
00:36:10.880That's Thomas Massey's position, to which CBS News and Mark Levin and all the other0.86
00:36:16.840dumb people in MAGA world, that's anti-Semitic.0.91
00:36:21.680Really now, let's see what AIPAC has to say about it.0.99
00:36:26.180Minutes after Massey was declared the loser, AIPAC, AIPAC, the dreaded AIPAC, whose name
00:36:32.240we're not allowed to say, AIPAC sent out this tweet in public on Twitter.
00:36:37.220we're quoting pro-israel americans are proud to help defeat anti-israeli candidates being pro-israel
00:36:48.020is good policy and good politics and good politics exclamation point in other words the second massey
00:36:56.440loses apac announces we did it we did it we bumped this guy off he criticized us we're literally an
00:37:03.720unregistered foreign lobby who exists not to help the United States or its citizens,
00:37:07.940but a foreign country that couldn't exist without our aid anyway, whose aims are so
00:37:12.620far from ours that they are hurting us gravely, whose population may love Trump, but in a lot of
00:37:20.280ways hate Christian Americans. That's why they're spitting on nuns. That country doesn't like this1.00
00:37:27.020member of Congress. Therefore, we're going to take him out. And by the way, we did.
00:37:29.560Oh. So in other words, AIPAC is saying out loud something that if you said out loud might get you fired from your job or investigated by the Trump DOJ, which, by the way, has just announced a multi-city anti-antisemitism tour led by Leo Terrell, the chief of anti-Semitism enforcement or something, a Fox News contributor with, I think, 11 IRS liens against him over more than 10 years.
00:37:59.400There's a guy who's sort of wondering,
00:38:01.080like, how'd you get into federal service
00:38:02.180if you have a problem paying federal taxes?
00:38:04.040We'll leave that between him and the IRS.
00:38:05.620Maybe he'll get his own exemption from IRS audits.
00:48:07.000It's obviously the death of MAGA, whatever that was.
00:48:10.380But it's also, of course, the end of the Republican Party, as we thought we knew it.
00:48:15.620The Republican Party of right now bears absolutely no resemblance to the Republican Party we thought we had just elected less than a year and a half ago.
00:48:24.100None at all. Its parties are completely different. Its slogans are completely different. It is not
00:48:30.960the same thing. And maybe there's a working majority somewhere of people who support the
00:48:37.800new priorities of the Republican Party. But the question would be, where is that?
00:48:41.700Haaretz readers clearly do. They think that was the most important race in America.
00:48:45.500Amazing that they were following it. But in this country, nobody supports this. Nobody does.
00:53:04.340it wasn't a referendum on AIPAC. Just to give people an idea what I mean by that,
00:53:08.800AIPAC will never run ads. They didn't do it in the Chicago suburbs where they targeted a Democrat.
00:53:15.280It was anti-war and anti-foreign aid. You will never hear the ad. And then at the end of the
00:53:19.620ad, it says, this message was paid for by the American right, AIPAC. They're very good at
00:53:24.200running these through other party groups and making the election about something else.
00:53:28.280And they made this election about loyalty to Trump. Is he loyal enough to Trump? Is he loyal
00:53:32.800enough to the party. And some of the questions around some of the immigration votes. And what
00:53:37.580do you do in a Republican primary with that? You drive up turnout with boomers. And that is the0.56
00:53:42.580lesson here, Tucker. Thomas Massey was clobbering Ed Galrin with millennials three to one, three to
00:53:48.660one, not two to one, not one and a half to one. Younger people need to vote and Republicans need
00:53:54.800to get it through their heads right now. You use the word I've been using. This was a Pyrrhic
00:53:58.780victory. Congratulations. You spent thirty five million dollars you needed in November to get
00:54:04.060rid of the last conservative in the U.S. House of Representatives to replace him with a neocon
00:54:09.580that the American people rejected 20 years ago and didn't elect Republicans again until Donald
00:54:15.760Trump's brand of America first came around. This is a pyrrhic victory that they'll suffer for later.
00:54:21.940They've got to know that they do. OK, do OK, so do they? I mean, this is the end of
00:54:27.760the Republican Party, not just that I support it, I would never ever, it's immoral to support
00:54:33.020this in my opinion, but anti-free speech, pro-killing, I mean, it's grotesque in every
00:54:38.900way. But it's also the end of the Republican Party that we had in the beginning of something
00:54:44.980new and deeply unpopular. They got to know that. They do. And I'm just going to tell a story. I
00:54:50.720won't blow them up. But being a pollster, unfortunately, I get bombarded by donors and
00:54:57.440people who want to pick my brain because they think they're privileged and they're entitled
00:55:00.600to that phone call. But last night and having several conversations, three of them flatly told
00:55:06.540me when I was making the argument that, OK, good job. You did it. Thirty five million dollars to
00:55:11.780win by nine points. Now compare that to when Donald Trump targeted Liz Cheney, folks, who was
00:55:17.000really a rhino, who was really a neocon, who really supported never ending war. Liz Arrington barely1.00
00:55:22.020needed that amount of money and she thrashed Liz Cheney by more than 30 points. It was the biggest1.00
00:55:26.620election defeat for any sitting incumbent in history and it didn't require 35 million votes
00:55:31.880so you beat him you sent him home he's going to take five percent of his vote with him libertarians
00:55:37.380are going to be mad they're going to do what they did to republicans in 18 which is run candidates
00:55:41.760independents and libertarians pulling one and a half here two and two and a half there costing
00:55:47.280republican seats because there will be races that close that third party vote share actually cost
00:55:52.380them that race. And for what? And the answer basically was, we don't care about November.
00:55:57.940Stop worrying about November. That's something we can worry about later. The pendulum swings
00:56:02.420down the road. This is what I got out of it. And you said it and you addressed it in your monologue.
00:56:08.580They really do feel that Thomas Massey or anyone who opposes foreign aid, who doesn't support
00:56:16.400unfettered, give their unfettered support to Israel and their ventures in the Middle East,
00:56:21.140they cannot separate that from anti-Semitism. They think that they're anti-Semites in secret
00:56:27.440and they're couching that anti-Semitism in some phony philosophy that they can't vote for foreign
00:56:35.360spending. And over the course of 45 minutes, it dawned on me, they believe this. They really do
00:56:41.400believe it. At first, for a long time, I thought it was just junk. And it was just typical, almost0.99
00:56:46.840left wing kind of use of how you expand the definition to impose a label on somebody like
00:56:52.120the left does with racism and xenophobia, which causes a backlash. Because when you do that,
00:56:59.000you actually wind up creating more of what you're trying to put down, right? If you're constantly
00:57:03.560calling somebody anti-Semitic for having a difference in opinion over foreign policy,
00:57:07.600you're almost assuredly going to create more anti-Semitism, which by the way, Mark Levin
00:57:12.400called me an anti-Semite for pointing out and it gets sustained. But they, and I thought that,0.59
00:57:18.520you know, maybe they were just being careless and reckless by doing this. And it really did
00:57:23.540dawn on me last night that they believe it. They believe it. Is there any, I mean, if you think
00:57:27.940about what they're defending, so they're defending two things. One, the proposition that it's okay
00:57:32.680to be more loyal to a foreign country than your own country. And two, the behavior of that foreign0.53
00:57:39.400country, which is not only out of bounds and unacceptable, but I mean, what Israel has done
00:57:46.060in the last two and a half years to people within areas it controls, murdering women and children
00:57:51.280by the tens of thousands. I mean, that will never be forgotten in history. Is there any sense that
00:57:57.400you get that they're like ashamed of any of this? Is there any sense of they're doing something
00:58:01.640wrong or is it entirely like displacement? Like anyone who criticizes or notices it,
00:58:06.060they're the real criminals. Yeah, that's a good question. I think the answer is no. And the reason
00:58:11.960is, you know, over the last year, you know, I'm a public pollster and my job is to conduct the
00:58:16.400research and not convey my own opinion, but try to get people to understand what voters are thinking
00:58:21.160and why they are thinking the way they are. And over the last year, just polling has been met
00:58:27.000with incredible blowback. And recently I reviewed this internal report. It's an Israeli government
00:58:32.200report and basically admits they have a massive problem in the West, particularly among younger
00:58:37.180people in America. Israel's image has suffered badly. How are they going to confront this and
00:58:42.020how are they going to overcome this and still keep their special relationship with the United States
00:58:47.080and alliances or at least friendly relations with other Western countries? Going through all of
00:58:52.960these bullets, they couldn't decouple what we were talking about either. Even in the, this is a
00:58:57.480government report. They couldn't decouple it. But also not one single prescription had anything to
00:59:05.640do with curbing Israel's behavior. And that concerned me because, I mean, yeah, it all came0.95
00:59:11.000down to censorship, Tucker, right? Censorship, some form of coercion. We're going to do this.
00:59:15.600We're going to lean on these people. We're going to use our friendships and relationships here
00:59:18.840to address that group of people. None of it was dealing with curbing their own behavior. And that
00:59:24.200is from a, you know, for just public polls and point of view, that's their problem. One of the
00:59:29.480things that jumped out at me last year was it was different. It was something we've never measured
00:59:34.120before. Young Americans, and when I say young, I mean under 45, even those who identified as
00:59:40.320America first, viewed what was happening in Gaza as a genocide. And we have never seen that before,
00:59:46.200right? I mean, typically the line that we all hear, like the Fox News lines, the human shields,
00:59:51.500the normal stuff. That worked for a very long time on people. I think younger people are less,
00:59:58.800they're a less myth-believing society. I don't think they are than boomers, for instance.0.81
01:00:03.880And they're going to have to confront that reality. They just can't steamroll it because0.96
01:00:08.120the more they try to steamroll over these people and their belief that they're entitled to their
01:00:12.460opinion, the more backlash they're going to get. And they acknowledge they had this issue with the
01:00:17.300left, but here's what I think that they're missing from what is coming from the right now.
01:00:21.500I think people don't fully appreciate, especially millennial men who supported Donald Trump, Generation Z men who supported Donald Trump, they don't appreciate that these voters, many of them never voted, they have no vote history or very little vote history, came out for Donald Trump in 24 because they believe that he and J.D. Vance were really their last chance.
01:00:41.320their last chance at getting to right the ship in the country and to have a future that people
01:00:46.100who lived before them had, right? Their inheritance was being squandered. The economy is just garbage.
01:00:51.580It costs much to live. There's no point to go to school. Nobody is appreciating that they have1.00
01:00:57.420this point of view. And now they look for better, for worse, fair or not. They look at Israel
01:01:03.380with a little bit of contempt now because they feel like they derailed their presidency.
01:01:09.500They kind of hijacked it and they're going to whether you agree with that or not, it's kind of irrelevant, irrelevant.
01:01:15.160That's how they feel. And if you don't address it, it's just going to blow up in your face because 10 years from now, you know, the first boomers turned 80 this year, Tucker, 10 years from now, if Republicans can't put together a coalition like the one that supports Thomas Massey, you're not going to win a general election.
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01:03:21.000this is the a b choice i was trying to convey to people uh before the iran war for instance which is
01:03:28.020you have to decide and if you're from the right if you're of the right you'll understand this
01:03:33.840better obviously if you thought going into 2024 democrats were the existential threat to the
01:03:40.140country lawfare they were locking up a former president he literally had to win in order to
01:03:45.880ensure he wouldn't spend potentially the rest of his life in jail. I mean, we crossed the Rubicon,
01:03:51.200Tucker, before 24. And if you truly believe that, then you would, nothing, nothing would come before
01:03:58.800that. The Iran war could crack the coalition up, could break up the Republican party, and it just
01:04:04.880isn't worth it, right? Because if you go back to democratic control, we're all in danger. We're
01:04:10.180literally in danger. So if you believe that line of argument, which I believe was a valid argument,
01:04:15.380And I think that's a big part of why Donald Trump was elected pretty easily, right, compared to 16.
01:04:22.300If you believe that, then there's really no way to square how you would put that at risk for the interest of a foreign nation.
01:04:30.820Really, there's no way to put that together.
01:04:33.380You're either prioritizing the viability of the coalition health to make sure that you stay in power or you're prioritizing something else.
01:04:41.980And if you're doing that, then, yeah, I mean, we have to conclude that you're just trying to break up the party.
01:04:46.500And honestly, in the conversation I was talking about last night, the truth is, and I think a lot of people at home don't know this, the truth is a lot of these people donate to Democrats anyway.
01:04:56.500Their issue is not whether or not Republicans control the House or the White House.
01:05:01.900As long as they have a majority, bipartisan majority, that preserves the foreign policy, you know, water spigot, you know, and preserves the special relationship, then they're good.
01:05:15.760They don't really care about the viability of the Republican Party.
01:05:18.500Because they don't care about the country, of course.0.70
01:05:21.160I mean, by definition, if your top issue is Israel, you should have no authority in the United States because you're by definition disloyal to the United States.0.96
01:05:30.400I mean, it just seems like a definitional fact.
01:05:35.300So let me ask, I've watched politicians work through their campaign messages,
01:05:40.560and there's a keen attention to polling and to popularity of the message.
01:18:56.180They will never break the bond that Donald Trump has with his voters.
01:18:59.280And the more they attack him, the stronger the bond will get.
01:19:02.200The only way you can break the bond is if Donald Trump himself breaks the bond.
01:19:06.360And when he sent that out, Tucker, I just I felt it.
01:19:10.180I just I've been tracking the Trump coalition since the day he gave his CPAC speech and said, I'm serious about running.
01:19:19.320I can't I can't let another Bush or another Clinton get in the White House because we're doomed, he said at a CPAC event, which didn't he wasn't as popular as he was now.
01:19:29.440At that moment, I knew the guy was was for real.
01:19:32.380And we put him in our tracker for the Republican primary and never forget it.
01:19:36.360But from that point on, we've been studying that coalition since then.
01:20:25.200We usually put them together and then ask, we'll force people to pick one over the other.
01:20:28.700if you were a millennial 30 to 45 years old you were 66 percent identifying as MAGA that is now
01:20:38.120around 40 percent if you were 18 to 29 it was like 56 and now it's 36 if you're 65 again never got to
01:20:48.180majority it's a majority now and a traditional republican is about 45 so what happened it got
01:20:54.120older. It got older. And the younger voters who really had so much riding on this thing,
01:21:00.300they're out. They're out. I didn't know older people were so bloodthirsty. Did you?
01:21:07.620You know what I think it comes down to, especially with when you study the boomer generation,
01:21:12.400a lot of people split them into two. And the reason is because the Jones boomers,0.96
01:21:17.540you know, which is there's boomer one, boomer two. The Jones avoided the draft and not by their0.65
01:21:22.460by choice. It's just their birth year. I think the other generation that was forced to deal0.53
01:21:27.920with the war, they were not brought up in an environment like us. You got your news from
01:21:35.720the mainstream media. There was no way to double check it. There was no online social media
01:21:40.040podcast. Maybe there was radio here, of course, but it wasn't like it is now. They are still very
01:21:45.800institutional. I think that's the word. That's probably the fairest word. They were the ones
01:21:51.480during trump's first term ironically guys they were the ones who more were more likely to believe
01:21:57.020the collusion hoax because in their minds they're thinking well fox wouldn't be running this if there
01:22:01.900wasn't some truth to this like fox wouldn't lie to us like this the rest of the country remembers
01:22:07.8409-11 the rest of the country that you know millennials my generation is a great example
01:22:12.740we remember being told there were wmds right we remember uh covid by the way that hurt us greatly
01:22:18.900I mean, it was not, you know, there was health risks for the older generations, but there weren't economic risks. So we're much more sensitive to whether or not institutions are lying to us or not. And I think they're just, you know, more, more trusting. And unfortunately, that leads to more susceptibility for like war propaganda, which is one of the hardest propaganda, you know, forms of propaganda to resist. They are much more susceptible to it.
01:22:42.680where does this leave people who voted for trump in 2024 the huge number of people who never voted
01:22:50.700who really bought the promise that he would put the country first and their concerns above
01:22:57.400those of israel or or anyone else epstein's friends like who they can't they're gonna
01:23:03.540really vote for the democratic party which hates white people is like a foundational belief i mean
01:23:07.800they say they do. So I believe them. No, but they can't vote for the Republican Party, which0.99
01:23:13.280obviously shares none of their views at all. Like, is there room for a new party for that?
01:23:20.060Increasingly, we're going to have to start talking about that because the people who
01:23:22.880did the people who have voted before, but they were maybe low propensity, they voted once or
01:23:27.820twice. Remember 10x, right? For instance, I mean, the entire point of that was to get people in
01:23:31.960Michigan and the Rust Belt who don't really vote out to vote. Those people will just stay home.
01:23:37.200They'll go back to having low propensity vote history, and they just won't vote.
01:23:40.960The people who are first-time voters, especially if they're younger and they have their lives
01:23:45.420ahead of them, I mean, the word to describe how they feel right now is basically apoplectic.
01:24:22.700And that led to the fracturing of his coalition into the Ross Perot coalition, which put the Republican Party in the wilderness in the dark ages, the political dark ages, for eight years.
01:24:33.880And it was only until George W. Bush came in 2000, beat John McCain, who was your textbook