This is Gavin Newsom

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00:02:38.080 The fact that Trump wants to fundamentally change the U.S. political system so there are no longer checks and balances on his presidency.

00:02:48.080 My principal enemies are inside the house.

00:02:50.980 They almost tried to kill me.

00:02:52.660 It was this close. 0.98

00:02:53.940 Reality has punched him in the face. 1.00

00:02:55.920 I think that what Epstein represents to Americans are these assholes can get away with anything. 0.99

00:03:02.780 Coming up next on This is Gavin Newsom. 0.99

00:03:04.860 I just sat down with Ian Brenner, the founder and president of the Eurasia Group, started GZERO Media.

00:03:10.620 It's a fancy way of saying a world-leading expert on geopolitical risk, on politics, on business and its intersection.

00:03:20.060 And, of course, this week, highlighted by the visit of the crown prince of Saudi Arabia.

00:03:24.740 There's so much to discuss around the world we are living in, the trend lines that define this moment, and what to expect in the future.

00:03:33.400 This is Gavin Newsom.

00:03:36.120 And this is Ian Brenner.

00:03:40.640 Ian Brenner, it's good to be with you.

00:03:42.640 Good to be with you, Gavin.

00:03:43.360 Where were you?

00:03:44.160 We're in San Francisco.

00:03:45.320 Yes.

00:03:45.580 You made it all the way out west.

00:03:47.000 I did.

00:03:47.560 Are you a product of East Coast?

00:03:50.320 What are you doing out here?

00:03:51.120 Yeah, I grew up in Chelsea, Massachusetts, just outside Boston.

00:03:54.900 I live in New York now.

00:03:56.080 All right.

00:03:56.580 And I like it.

00:03:57.260 I do like it.

00:03:57.840 Do you like it?

00:03:58.400 You can't move me out.

00:03:59.100 Okay.

00:03:59.480 Well, I'm not trying to.

00:04:00.160 That's a good point.

00:04:00.860 And we'll get to a little bit of the East Coast.

00:04:02.680 I lived out here for a few years.

00:04:03.700 Where were you?

00:04:04.340 Stanford.

00:04:04.940 Where were you?

00:04:05.220 Of course you were.

00:04:06.040 Sorry.

00:04:06.380 Of course you were.

00:04:06.880 Hey, they let me in.

00:04:08.320 Kids from the projects let me in at Stanford.

00:04:09.840 I'll just drop it right away.

00:04:10.660 Well, you're at Columbia University as well.

00:04:12.660 You're all over.

00:04:13.140 But look, I want to let's contextualize because I think for me, I'd like to sort of level set

00:04:19.300 about, you know, sort of in the Tom Freeman zone of what world are we living in?

00:04:24.280 I mean, what world are we living in sort of globally?

00:04:26.920 What are the trend lines that define the world we're living in?

00:04:30.220 What's your sense of the moment we're in globally geopolitically?

00:04:34.220 Well, the biggest thing that is so unusual in your and my histories is that the United

00:04:40.440 States, we are now driving the greatest level of geopolitical uncertainty, right?

00:04:47.180 It's not China. 0.85

00:04:48.540 It's not Europe. 0.62

00:04:50.120 Russia is certainly a problem, but comparatively small.

00:04:53.120 No, it's the question of what does the United States want?

00:04:56.820 It's whiplash from one administration to the next.

00:04:59.300 And it is absolutely an unwillingness to be the reliable partner on the set of rules that

00:05:06.380 the Americans had instituted and mostly, though not always, live by collective security, free

00:05:13.420 market trading, you know, rule of law, foreign aid.

00:05:19.560 I mean, all of these things, huge questions.

00:05:22.780 And countries all over the world, especially our allies, saying we don't believe that the

00:05:27.480 United States is reliable going forward.

00:05:30.980 So the issue of reliability.

00:05:32.120 So you talk and you've written a lot about this notion of unpredictability, reliability,

00:05:36.560 but never both and.

00:05:38.340 And that's the world now we're living in.

00:05:40.180 This notion of being unreliable and unpredictable.

00:05:43.500 That's anomalous, even by Trump 1.0 terms?

00:05:47.360 Completely.

00:05:48.180 Yeah.

00:05:48.480 Yeah.

00:05:48.620 I mean, they've been through Trump 1.0.

00:05:49.980 And I think a lot of people assume Trump 2.0 would be the same.

00:05:53.660 And they were really wrong, right?

00:05:56.320 So much more consolidated power under Trump.

00:05:59.840 So much more willingness to break the furniture on tariffs, you know, for example.

00:06:06.880 On trying to do peace deals, for example.

00:06:09.840 Just a very, very assertive, this is my opportunity.

00:06:15.160 My principal enemies are inside the House.

00:06:18.080 They almost tried to kill me.

00:06:20.200 It was this close.

00:06:21.240 And so I have to be a revolutionary president.

00:06:25.720 And you've used that word revolution.

00:06:28.060 And some people have balked at that, saying that may be overstated.

00:06:31.480 Though you've made the point, not dissimilar to Gorbachev himself, some of the revolution

00:06:35.780 we saw, at least economic revolution in China, that you can certainly make the case that Trump's

00:06:42.160 policies vis-a-vis the West of the globe is revolutionary.

00:06:44.860 I think that, again, in our lifetimes, and this is why the geopolitical uncertainty from

00:06:50.180 the U.S. is so great, there have really been three attempted revolutions that have had global

00:06:57.020 impact.

00:06:57.720 The first, Deng Xiaopang, an economic revolution, not a political revolution in China, successful 0.92

00:07:05.640 and brings China ultimately into the WTO and into the global economy.

00:07:11.280 The second, under Gorbachev, when I cut my teeth as a graduate student, my first trip

00:07:17.340 outside the U.S. was to the Soviet Union in 86 when he had first come in.

00:07:21.140 This was a political and an economic revolution.

00:07:24.020 Right.

00:07:24.720 Completely failed.

00:07:25.740 And the Soviet Union collapsed as a consequence.

00:07:30.100 And the third, a political, though I would argue not an economic revolution, here in the

00:07:35.400 United States by Trump.

00:07:36.560 And we don't know if it's going to be successful or not.

00:07:40.160 And by the way, Steve Bannon would completely agree with that.

00:07:43.200 He wants it to be successful.

00:07:45.660 You absolutely don't.

00:07:47.820 A lot of people feel very differently.

00:07:49.420 But the fact that Trump wants to fundamentally change the U.S. political system so there are

00:07:56.260 no longer checks and balances on his presidency, either from inside the administration or from

00:08:03.120 the party or from the administrative state or from the judiciary, I mean, these are from

00:08:10.860 the media.

00:08:11.720 I mean, as we saw, you know, you and I are taping this on a day that Trump, you know, went

00:08:15.640 directly after ABC and said they should have their license taken away, didn't like the

00:08:20.340 question, tells the head of the FCC, you should be looking into that right now.

00:08:23.620 That is not historically something that is compatible with the United States.

00:08:29.660 But under a political revolution, it might be.

00:08:31.840 And you say not an economic revolution, a political revolution, but you just referenced

00:08:37.760 the economic revolution in China.

00:08:39.760 Some have equated the economic policy shifts in the United States to aspects of Chinese

00:08:46.780 state capitalism.

00:08:48.300 This notion that we have seen, or not just notion, but we've seen some of the transactions

00:08:53.640 that have come with the 10 percent ownership into Intel.

00:08:56.620 Obviously, these golden shares with U.S. Steel, NVIDIA and AMD, even MP Materials here in

00:09:02.100 the state of California, disproportionate number of California-based companies.

00:09:05.300 Aspects, sort of component parts of state capitalism, though, have, have they not?

00:09:11.720 Yes.

00:09:12.020 Entered into political context.

00:09:14.180 Industrial policy.

00:09:15.460 Absolutely.

00:09:16.540 You just picked all the big ones, by the way.

00:09:19.160 So, I mean, it's not like you can say that across the U.S. economy at all.

00:09:23.680 The biggest American companies are spending lots of money on the Trump administration to

00:09:29.660 ensure that they can continue to essentially capture the regulatory environment, not the other

00:09:33.840 way around.

00:09:34.200 So, my view is that there are similarities between China and the United States in the

00:09:40.540 way the economy runs.

00:09:41.620 In China, the state captures the corporations.

00:09:45.020 In the United States, the corporations capture the state, right?

00:09:48.020 Where in Europe, right, the state actually stands pretty much outside in its superpower as

00:09:54.420 a regulatory superpower, which sounds great for the social contract until you realize that

00:09:58.980 there's no growth attached to it.

00:10:00.000 Exactly.

00:10:00.520 Yeah.

00:10:00.740 So, from a perspective, you know, back to sort of the alliance, there's alliances and now

00:10:07.360 this notion of predictability or unpredictability, reliability.

00:10:10.840 Would you describe, I mean, an alliance-first framework that sort of defines the post-World

00:10:16.540 War II order, the last 75, 80 years, to now an American-first framework?

00:10:21.040 Or is it an economic-first framework?

00:10:23.840 Or is it just Trump an impulse in the context of what his revolutionary construct or ideological

00:10:30.880 frame represents?

00:10:31.720 Well, so one of the reasons why I don't think it's an economic revolution is because even

00:10:35.640 though Trump might be interested in some of that stuff, reality has punched him in the

00:10:41.180 face.

00:10:41.580 So, you know, for example, he tried to start a trade war with China and force them to bend 0.63

00:10:49.260 the knee.

00:10:49.640 He tried to put an effective economic boycott on the Chinese.

00:10:53.280 It didn't work.

00:10:54.740 Xi Jinping wasn't getting on the phone and jumping and saying, please, sir, can you, you

00:10:58.200 know, can you take the job?

00:10:58.980 Did that surprise you, the extent to which China leveraged, particularly on rare earth minerals,

00:11:04.520 their strategic strengths in relationship to that?

00:11:07.740 Do you think that, I mean, was that a surprise, not only from your perspective, but do you

00:11:11.280 think that surprised the Trump administration?

00:11:12.740 Oh, it clearly surprised the Trump administration.

00:11:14.660 It, the part that surprised me was not the, the capabilities that the Chinese had developed

00:11:21.740 in critical minerals and rare earths.

00:11:23.820 They've been building these up for decades.

00:11:25.560 It's very obvious that this is like a really strategic move to have that leverage.

00:11:31.340 But what surprised me, and I think surprised a lot of people in the field, was the view that

00:11:36.440 their ability to suddenly actually regulate through licensing and have a scalpel that would

00:11:45.740 allow you to really hit American companies and not necessarily hit other companies.

00:11:51.460 And to be fair, like when they announced these licensing agreements, suddenly everyone is

00:11:56.240 trying to make applications to China and it's thousands of applications and they don't have

00:12:01.360 the staff to actually deal with it.

00:12:02.700 So it did cause damage.

00:12:04.880 For example, China's relations with the EU right now are markedly worse than they were

00:12:10.340 a few months ago, in part because they weren't as capable to really use this as a lever just

00:12:17.560 against the United States and just against American companies.

00:12:21.080 But their willingness to do it together with their getting up to speed really, really fast,

00:12:25.940 I think was surprised everyone to at least a degree.

00:12:30.860 And the fact is that the Trump administration is not prepared to have this fight with the

00:12:36.720 Chinese.

00:12:37.040 Now, what does that mean?

00:12:38.520 In part, that means that the Americans need friends, need allies.

00:12:43.880 It turns out inflation is higher than Trump thought it was going to be.

00:12:47.500 And what does that mean?

00:12:48.120 It turns out that like a lot of those tariffs on food and on coffee and bananas, other things,

00:12:53.840 turns out, well, you've got to take those off.

00:12:56.100 Turns out that Trump doesn't actually, probably doesn't have the ability to use AIPA individually

00:13:02.040 as the president, as everything is a national emergency, no matter what country, no matter

00:13:08.580 how poor, how rich, how small, how big.

00:13:11.120 And that the Supreme Court, at least the initial arguments look like that's going to hit him

00:13:14.000 back pretty hard.

00:13:15.340 All of that implies that Trump's, he may have an idea, grand, grand idea that I'm the biggest

00:13:23.360 actor out there and therefore the law, the jungle, I'm the predator.

00:13:27.100 And so as the apex predator, everyone has to bow to me.

00:13:31.020 But, you know, even the apex predator like picks off like a wounded wildebeest, but doesn't

00:13:36.040 go after the entire herd simultaneously.

00:13:38.860 Turns out it's not really working for him.

00:13:40.820 So I, I think that in the past few weeks, we've actually passed the tipping point where

00:13:48.380 Trump's global unilateralism is really getting constrained.

00:13:52.520 Sort of piqued Trump in that way.

00:13:53.900 And AIPA is the International Economic Emergency Powers Act of which Trump has asserted, it's

00:13:59.320 been litigated in the Supreme Court, that he has the unilateral authority without congressional

00:14:03.680 approval to move forward with these tariffs.

00:14:05.920 But even, of course, if the Supreme Court adjudicates against that authority, he still substantially

00:14:13.640 can find other avenues to advance the tariff.

00:14:16.220 But it would take time.

00:14:17.240 Yeah.

00:14:17.580 And expectations for where the global blended tariff average from the United States would

00:14:23.960 be, it would probably be three to six points lower than they presently are.

00:14:27.460 Which is roughly, what is it, 17?

00:14:29.100 It depends on the day of the weeks.

00:14:30.300 It depends on whether you're saying what he has or what they're actually implementing, but

00:14:34.020 something between 13 and 17, yeah.

00:14:35.580 And it's the highest since the 1930s.

00:14:37.540 Without any question.

00:14:38.460 And that's the single biggest thing he's done on the global stage so far.

00:14:41.420 So, and it seems to me that's the entire policy.

00:14:45.980 I mean, every single thing is leveraged.

00:14:48.620 Every conversation is leveraged in the context of that cudgel, isn't it?

00:14:52.640 The tariff cudgel.

00:14:53.720 With him.

00:14:55.000 I mean, the Russia-Ukraine thing, clearly it's whether or not you remember when the Ukrainians,

00:14:59.760 when Zelensky came to the Oval, that horrible shambolic meeting and he cut off intelligence.

00:15:05.020 And defense support for a week or two.

00:15:08.140 That wasn't trade, but my God, that was important.

00:15:10.320 Sent a big message to the Europeans. 0.99

00:15:12.360 There have, similar in terms of the Abraham Accords and the F-35.

00:15:17.160 So, American military capabilities also have, I would say that's another significant piece of leverage.

00:15:22.780 So, let's reinforce that in the context of the meeting that the president just had in the Oval Office of the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia.

00:15:32.100 Yeah, yeah.

00:15:32.400 Talking about transactions around F-35s, talking about potentially, well, apparently they didn't talk about the Abraham Accords.

00:15:40.580 They did a bit.

00:15:41.480 They did a bit to pull, potentially to get Saudi Arabia as part of that.

00:15:45.140 So, give me your over-under in terms of that relationship, which is, to me, fascinating, also deeply predictable, because there's sort of a crony component of that as well.

00:15:55.820 There's a little bit of self-dealing that seems to attach itself, respectfully, from my perspective, to all things Saudi Arabia and the Trump and Trump family.

00:16:02.840 But how did you perceive that meeting, the importance of it, a little bit of the controversy around it, particularly in relationship to the murder of a Washington Post reporter?

00:16:13.780 What was your sense of that?

00:16:15.920 Well, there's so much to unpack here.

00:16:18.500 Saudi Arabia today, over 30 million population in the region, is transforming itself in ways that, if you haven't traveled to the kingdom recently, is shocking.

00:16:30.620 In a positive way, mostly.

00:16:33.340 In an incredibly positive way.

00:16:34.960 Mohammed bin Salman, if there were elections in Saudi Arabia, would almost certainly win 80, 85, 90% of the votes.

00:16:43.280 He is, women were 11% of the workforce 10 years ago. 0.96

00:16:50.120 They're now 36% in 10 years.

00:16:52.860 It's like a reverse Iranian revolution, right? 0.93

00:16:55.640 They're diversifying the economy, you know, so it's not just, you know, oil and petrochem.

00:17:02.200 It's actually meant to, and it's technology, and it's tourism, and it's sports, and it's health, and it's all of these things.

00:17:08.500 It's comedy.

00:17:09.480 They even did that comedy festival recently.

00:17:11.820 Absolutely.

00:17:12.200 And so, you know, you go and you see that suddenly, like, men and women are actually able to talk to each other.

00:17:19.480 And I remember the first time I went to Saudi Arabia, local men referred to women as MBOs, moving black objects, because they were completely covered by the niqab, and you couldn't see them aside from this little slit, you know, with their eyes.

00:17:34.000 And they certainly weren't playing any role in terms of social, public culture.

00:17:39.500 That has completely changed.

00:17:41.860 There are no religious police on the streets anymore.

00:17:44.860 All of that is extraordinary.

00:17:46.640 So any country in the world, not just the United States, that is thinking about what are the future-oriented governments that you should be engaging with, Saudi would be on your list.

00:18:00.120 Just having said that, the Khashoggi assassination, which the CIA said-

00:18:09.040 Under Trump.

00:18:10.040 Under Trump, said Mohammed bin Salman was directly aware of, right?

00:18:15.480 And then so suddenly today, and no one is, you know, Khashoggi is no longer a thing in the sense that it was many years ago.

00:18:23.240 You've got Davos in the desert, all of the global, the bankers, the industry leaders from the U.S., other countries, they're all going.

00:18:29.360 It's not like the Saudis are suddenly a pariah state.

00:18:33.540 Not at all.

00:18:34.960 And I think Biden made mistakes on that, frankly, not reading the room.

00:18:38.580 But for Trump to then take a question and pretend that not only did this incident not happen, to whitewash it and say, well, Mohammed bin Salman, he knew nothing about that.

00:18:51.140 To say that, well, this guy Khashoggi was a bad guy. 0.81

00:18:54.100 Like, well, you don't need to do any of that.

00:18:57.560 And yet it's almost like he takes pleasure in the opportunity in undermining the values that the United States has at least tried to stand for, for much of its recent history.

00:19:13.940 Net-net positive.

00:19:15.320 So what you're-

00:19:15.880 Net-net positive.

00:19:16.780 Yeah, I mean, and he was treated like a head of state, even though it's technically not the head of state.

00:19:22.260 Yeah, they're still a king.

00:19:23.420 Yeah.

00:19:23.720 But is it related to-

00:19:24.780 So it gives us opportunity just maybe then to get into the Middle East and the Middle East politics a little bit.

00:19:29.700 The Abraham Accords were a big success for the Trump administration 1.0.

00:19:33.260 Arguably his largest success.

00:19:34.980 Largest success.

00:19:35.540 And what I love about you, you call balls and strikes, you're nonpartisan, and you're able to assess things without a deeply political lens, which I think is critical and important.

00:19:44.360 I think it's important for us to acknowledge that, particularly folks in my party.

00:19:48.240 But as it relates to where we are today and the ability to build on that success and the relationship to this quote-unquote Middle East peace deal, the most significant, you know, Trump sort of triumphed, and the challenges that persist in Gaza, Hamas, who appears not to have any interest in, you know, eliminating or at least setting down their arms.

00:20:08.700 The challenges with the next phase of that peace deal, the importance of Saudi Arabia recognizing Israel, but first Israel recognizing a Palestinian state.

00:20:18.860 How do you feel the state of the Middle East is today?

00:20:21.980 Well, so first, balls and strikes.

00:20:24.020 Let's give Trump credit where credit is due.

00:20:26.820 Nobody thought that Hamas was going to actually release all of the living Israeli hostages.

00:20:34.980 And they did with Trump pressure.

00:20:37.200 And it was at the United Nations General Assembly.

00:20:41.060 And I remember when he stood up and the speech was way too long, almost an hour.

00:20:44.820 And there were only two applause lines, one when he finally finished.

00:20:48.360 And the other, when he said, you want to end the war?

00:20:52.020 Hamas has to let the hostages go.

00:20:53.440 And everyone, almost everyone in the room applauded that.

00:20:56.260 And so, but no one thought it was going to get done.

00:20:58.820 He got it done.

00:20:59.620 He got it done by also orchestrating a summit on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.

00:21:05.280 And you were there in New York with me as well.

00:21:08.580 With all of the leaders from the region, not the Israelis, saying, here's the 20 or 21 point plan, depending on who you talk to, that they then mostly got agreement on.

00:21:20.280 And recently they just got it passed by the Security Council.

00:21:22.880 Which is remarkable.

00:21:23.560 Which is remarkable.

00:21:24.420 The Russians and the Chinese abstained.

00:21:26.020 And everyone else was a little bit.

00:21:27.600 But they were a little bit on the sidelines.

00:21:30.820 They were chippy. 0.99

00:21:31.520 They were chippy. 0.99

00:21:32.340 That's the right word.

00:21:33.180 Chippy.

00:21:33.720 I like that.

00:21:34.440 No, but that was another remarkable accomplishment.

00:21:36.140 But to go from a position where the United States had been almost isolated completely on the global stage in its support to Israel.

00:21:43.240 To having the U.S. lead diplomacy with the Security Council voting in favor and only two abstentions from American adversaries.

00:21:51.640 That's an extraordinary win.

00:21:53.080 Give them credit.

00:21:53.900 And when Trump went to the Knesset and gave that speech, he was a hell of a lot more popular there than Prime Minister Netanyahu is.

00:22:00.660 Right?

00:22:01.420 Clearly.

00:22:01.680 So that's the positive.

00:22:04.260 Negative is getting this deal from ceasefire to a Palestinian state is really, really not looking very likely right now.

00:22:14.720 And that's why the Saudis were not prepared to show any leg on the Abraham Accords. 0.87

00:22:22.520 And when I was in Riyadh, same thing.

00:22:24.320 They're like, yeah, yeah, we're very happy.

00:22:25.960 We'd like to do it.

00:22:26.880 We'd like to engage.

00:22:27.820 We'd like the technology, all that stuff.

00:22:29.620 But not until we see a clear pathway to a Palestinian state.

00:22:33.100 And right now, with this leadership in Israel, it is not happening.

00:22:37.120 So you saw Trump just brought the Kazakhs into the Abraham Accords. 0.91

00:22:40.800 You see that?

00:22:41.240 I saw that.

00:22:41.720 A week ago.

00:22:42.280 They were not even, it was an unrelated party.

00:22:45.440 Well.

00:22:45.680 But it was just to show momentum.

00:22:46.980 They already had relations with Israel for like decades.

00:22:51.240 Yeah.

00:22:51.460 It's like when Trump announced that he ended the Azeri-Armenia War, which is great because they weren't actually fighting.

00:22:56.480 We're going to get to his Nobel Prize and the 10 peace deals.

00:22:58.940 I know, I know.

00:23:00.260 But the point is that the Abraham Accords are not going to include the Saudis for the foreseeable future.

00:23:03.880 For the foreseeable future.

00:23:05.200 Where are we?

00:23:05.920 What's your over-under?

00:23:06.940 And I've been reading some of the things you put out.

00:23:09.620 How concerned are you about Hezbollah in Lebanon?

00:23:12.760 How concerned are you about what's happening in Beirut or not happening?

00:23:16.880 Where do you think you see things going in the short term?

00:23:18.900 Well, the Lebanese government, after the ceasefire, said that they were going to work to ensure that the heavy weaponry that Hezbollah had in the south of the country near the Israeli border, they were going to destroy that critical infrastructure and make sure that those weapons weren't there.

00:23:35.340 They've done none of that.

00:23:36.060 But a couple of cases, a couple of cases where U.S. has intelligence, provides the Lebanese government, they respond to that.

00:23:43.760 But this has not been proactive.

00:23:45.780 Nobody thinks they're going to actually get this done.

00:23:48.300 And that means that Israel is going to start mowing the grass again. 0.88

00:23:51.580 And that means more strikes by the Israelis.

00:23:54.320 I do.

00:23:54.560 I expect it.

00:23:55.280 Now, whether or not that is limited strikes, drones, missiles, aircraft just across the border, or whether that includes special forces insertion in Beirut, there's a big, big difference between those two things.

00:24:11.760 Either can happen, but I'd be stunned if we have this staying quiescent over the coming months.

00:24:20.720 Tony Blair heading this effort.

00:24:24.100 In Gaza.

00:24:24.720 In Gaza.

00:24:26.120 What's your over-under on success in that respect?

00:24:28.700 I mean, the idea, if Hamas is not going to put down their arms, of an international security force coming in, armed security force, seems less likely under those circumstances.

00:24:41.720 Or am I off?

00:24:43.320 Less likely.

00:24:43.960 But also, everyone that's been traveling to this coordination center that they've set up, just on the Israeli side of the Gaza border, and it has like one floor with the Israelis, one floor with the Americans, then one floor with the multinationals.

00:25:00.560 And apparently, first of all, much bigger, much more capable than people think.

00:25:04.100 The U.S. much more directly involved now in terms of ensuring that humanitarian aid is getting in.

00:25:09.700 The Israelis are in some of the meetings.

00:25:11.160 They're not in all of the meetings.

00:25:12.420 So there is an effort to really have people that are capable of moving the ball, and also, as the administration has called it, babysitting.

00:25:21.720 So senior officials that are constraining him so that he can't destroy the progress in the process.

00:25:28.620 Now, also, Tony Blair, controversial figure, but is well-regarded, well-respected in the Gulf.

00:25:36.660 He brings far more political influence and leadership to a Gaza role than anyone else plausible.

00:25:43.220 Interestingly, the Jordanians have been really opposed to him.

00:25:48.260 And I haven't been able to figure out why.

00:25:50.460 No history when he was prime minister and with a king?

00:25:53.220 With Iraq a little bit, sure. 0.99

00:25:55.260 Of course.

00:25:55.900 But still surprising to me.

00:25:58.820 I mean, it might be that Abu Mazen is opposed to it and has used the Jordanians to say, hey, you know, sort of he's going to be tough on us.

00:26:04.900 I'm not sure, but I think that everyone would be fortunate to have Blair in this role, frankly.

00:26:10.860 Was it your perspective was the right thing to do to go in and go after those nuclear facilities of the United States and those strikes?

00:26:19.140 Well, they worked, right?

00:26:20.540 I mean, you know, you're talking about intelligence estimates or you probably delayed the Iranian program by some 12 to 18 months.

00:26:31.520 And the Iranians were incapable of any response, marshalling any response to Israel or the United States. 0.93

00:26:38.760 Most of it was done by the Israelis.

00:26:40.700 The Americans saw that that was successful and nothing happening.

00:26:43.120 Trump wanted to get in.

00:26:44.800 But then the war was over in short order and no American boots on the ground.

00:26:48.920 So, look, on balance with an Iranian government, remember, Trump had Bibi in the Oval Office. 0.83

00:26:56.460 And while he was there, announced, I'm going to start engaging with the Iranians.

00:27:00.700 I want to see if we can get to a diplomatic deal.

00:27:03.800 And there was some effort and the Iranians weren't really willing to go there.

00:27:10.380 So ultimately, that meant, I mean, this is not like the Gaza situation, certainly not like Qatar, where, you know, the Israelis made strikes.

00:27:18.640 The Americans weren't happy about it.

00:27:19.920 In the case of Iran, the United States was pretty much on board with, OK, we're going to let you guys have at it.

00:27:27.000 Let's go back to China. 0.86

00:27:28.160 And it's interesting to me, just with a weaker economy, we talked a little bit.

00:27:31.940 I mean, this notion that they were able to flex with a little more precision and push Trump back, though we still have outrageously high tariffs.

00:27:40.820 And that's going to impact or is already impacting prices, as you suggest.

00:27:45.120 But particularly this Christmas, where I think 80 percent of our toys come from China, et cetera.

00:27:49.540 So we're going to feel those impacts.

00:27:51.020 And they're starting to actually make, I mean, people are starting to absorb the realities of these terrorists in a way.

00:27:56.640 Those first few months, they appeared not to be.

00:27:58.900 And so there's back to this notion that certain realities are hitting Trump in the face in terms of how he positions.

00:28:04.960 A decade ago, I was on the trail of one of the country's most elusive serial killers.

00:28:09.780 But it wasn't until 2023 when he was finally caught.

00:28:13.580 The answers were there, hidden in plain sight.

00:28:16.340 So why did it take so long to catch him?

00:28:18.380 I'm Josh Zeman, and this is Monster, hunting the Long Island serial killer, the investigation into the most notorious killer in New York since The Son of Sam, available now.

00:28:28.560 Listen for free on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your podcasts.

00:28:35.860 On the podcast Health Stuff, we are tackling all the health questions that keep you up at night.

00:28:40.420 Yes, I'm Dr. Priyanka Wally, a double board certified physician.

00:28:44.160 And I'm Hari Kondabolu, a comedian and someone who once Googled, do I have scurvy at 3 a.m.?

00:28:49.980 On Health Stuff, we're talking about health in a different way.

00:28:53.600 It's not only about what we can do to improve our health.

00:28:56.140 But also what our health says about us and the way we're living.

00:28:59.700 Like our episode where we look at diabetes.

00:29:02.520 In the United States, I mean, 50% of Americans are pre-diabetic.

00:29:06.600 How preventable is type 2?

00:29:10.180 Extremely.

00:29:11.180 Or our in-depth analysis of how incredible mangoes are.

00:29:16.360 Oh, it's hard to explain to the rest of the world that, like, your mangoes are fine because mangoes are incredible, but, like, you don't even know.

00:29:23.960 You don't know.

00:29:25.160 You don't know.

00:29:27.320 It's going to be a fun ride.

00:29:29.060 So tune in.

00:29:29.880 Listen to Health Stuff on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

00:29:36.600 The Big Take podcast from Bloomberg News dives deep into one big global business story every weekday.

00:29:43.400 A shutdown means we don't get the data, but it also means for President Trump that there's no chance of bad news on the labor market.

00:29:51.420 What does a bacon, egg and cheese sandwich reveal about the economy?

00:29:54.900 Our breakfast foods are consistent consumer staples, and so they sort of become outsized indicators of inflation.

00:30:02.260 What's behind Elon Musk's trillion-dollar payout?

00:30:05.160 There's a sort of concerted effort to message that Musk is coming back, he's putting politics aside, he's left the White House.

00:30:13.880 And what can the PCE tell you that the CPI can't?

00:30:16.980 CPI tries to measure out-of-pocket costs that consumers are paying for things, whereas the PCE index that the Fed targets is a little bit broader of a measure.

00:30:28.020 Listen to the Big Take from Bloomberg News every weekday afternoon on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

00:30:35.660 What do you get when you mix 1950s Hollywood, a Cuban musician with a dream, and one of the most iconic sitcoms of all time?

00:30:45.260 You get Desi Arnaz, a trailblazer, a businessman, a husband, and maybe most importantly, the first Latino to break primetime wide open.

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00:31:05.760 On the podcast starring Desi Arnaz and Wilmer Valderrama, I'll take you on a journey to Desi's life.

00:31:11.320 The moments it has overlapped with mine, how he redefined American television, and what that meant for all of us watching from the sidelines, waiting for a face like ours on screen.

00:31:20.700 This is the story of how one man's spotlight lit the path for so many others, and how we carry his legacy today.

00:31:27.700 Listen to starring Desi Arnaz and Wilmer Valderrama as part of the My Cultura Podcast Network, available on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

00:31:38.020 Hey there, Dr. Jesse Mills here.

00:31:39.860 I'm the director of the men's clinic at UCLA Health, and I want to tell you about my new podcast called The Mailroom.

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00:31:54.920 Because guys usually don't go to the doctor unless a piece of their face is hanging off or they've broken a bone.

00:31:59.920 Depends which bone.

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00:32:38.640 But give me a sense, you know, the Biden years vis-a-vis China, how Trump is posturing that relationship with Xi.

00:32:48.940 Where do you see things going, even beyond the situational politics today, around the immediate, you know, sort of decompressing a little bit of that stress after that APEC meeting?

00:32:59.900 Where do you see things going with China in the next two, five years?

00:33:05.240 The Chinese are very confident right now.

00:33:08.520 They believe that the United States, as a country that is less reliable, is creating big opportunities for China long term.

00:33:17.760 U.S. shuts down USAID.

00:33:20.940 Who's going to be the principal on the ground in the global south?

00:33:23.960 Going to be the Chinese. 1.00

00:33:25.140 U.S. doesn't show up at the COP summit that you just went to in Brazil.

00:33:28.400 Who's driving technology at scale for post-carbon energy?

00:33:33.660 The Chinese. 0.54

00:33:34.440 The Americans are scaring off brown people that might want visas to get top higher education in the United States.

00:33:42.580 Who's now trying to make visas easier for people to come in?

00:33:46.520 The Chinese. 0.54

00:33:47.120 So long term, Xi Jinping is going to be there in all likelihood a lot longer than Trump is.

00:33:52.580 He believes this is an opportunity.

00:33:54.560 I would argue he is also overplaying his hand.

00:33:58.460 Xi.

00:33:59.120 Xi is.

00:34:00.060 In which respect or what respect?

00:34:02.080 That when he decided to put that loaded gun on the table that said, here is what I can do in weaponizing these critical minerals that are utterly essential for everybody in the advanced industrial economies.

00:34:15.660 Suddenly you have Europeans, Japanese, South Koreans, Australians, Canadians saying, okay, we can't rely on the United States.

00:34:22.940 But these guys are actually a fundamental national security problem right now.

00:34:27.340 And we've got to find a way to work together, all of us, so that we have alternatives.

00:34:33.420 In the same way that the Europeans had their eye off the ball on energy and allowed themselves to be dependent on Russia, really bad idea for decades.

00:34:43.920 In the same way that the Americans did that with semiconductors and TSMC right off of the Chinese coast, really bad idea for decades.

00:34:53.400 All of us have done this on critical minerals and rare arts.

00:34:58.220 So, yeah, I think if you're China, you should have just, you know, as they say, you know, the Sun Tzu, right? 1.00

00:35:06.220 When your enemy is making a mistake, let them and don't intervene.

00:35:11.520 And I think that the Chinese actually sort of have played a little too aggressively recently.

00:35:16.940 The new prime minister of Japan said she would intervene on behalf of Taiwan.

00:35:22.700 If they were attacked.

00:35:23.380 If they were attacked.

00:35:24.360 The United States has had a curation.

00:35:26.780 I mean, the Biden administration seemed to have multiple positions on this.

00:35:30.440 And I don't mean that as an indictment.

00:35:32.060 But this notion of ambiguity, I think, was part of a little bit of the strategy.

00:35:35.840 It didn't help that Nancy Pelosi also decided to go play by herself under the Biden administration. 1.00

00:35:40.200 And there was some friction.

00:35:41.800 What's the over-under on China moving on Taiwan in the next decade?

00:35:51.800 Oh, decade is a long time, right?

00:35:53.800 I mean, in the next, over the course of the Trump administration, I would say actually quite low.

00:35:59.520 Low.

00:36:00.220 Why would you say under the course of the Trump administration?

00:36:02.120 Is that just because of years or because of policy with Trump?

00:36:05.240 I think it's both.

00:36:06.300 It's in part because the Chinese don't yet have the military capabilities in place.

00:36:11.600 And you see every month there's a new corruption scandal that's hitting the inside, the top levels of the Chinese military.

00:36:17.960 So how much would she want to rely on that to ensure with a military that hasn't been used in sort of battle conditions, the way like the Russians have, for example, and learn some things maybe they didn't want to learn at the beginning of that war?

00:36:32.480 But then you also have the fact that the Chinese see that Trump isn't looking for a trade war, like recognizes that he needs to bend the knee, that he needs to find a way not to cause problems for China.

00:36:45.600 There's a mutually assured economic destruction between the two countries, for now at least, even if the long-term path is towards decoupling.

00:36:53.480 And, you know, going to war against Taiwan, even if Trump's instinct, his impulse would be, that's pretty far away, not really my problem.

00:37:05.880 But the Japanese, the South Koreans, the Australians wouldn't feel that way.

00:37:09.420 And the Americans are very much on the ground there and intelligence sharing and troops and all the rest would be, it'd be hard for the Americans to actually steer clear of that.

00:37:18.580 And I don't see Xi Jinping as wanting to take that risk, similar to the economy.

00:37:23.700 You know, the Chinese economy is not performing that well right now.

00:37:26.760 He's not ready to launch the big bazooka at domestic stimulus.

00:37:31.360 He's not suddenly going to take all of the provincial debt and take it on at the federal level because he doesn't need to.

00:37:38.660 Because Xi Jinping is thinking about 10 years down the line, as you suggested, 20 years down the line.

00:37:43.500 And the fact that, like, he can wait, he is patient, he is more risk averse.

00:37:50.160 He's being quite cautious about some of these bigger long-term strategic issues, specifically like Taiwan.

00:37:55.980 Is the policy of the United States decoupling or is it de-risking?

00:38:01.100 I think it is long-term it's decoupling.

00:38:04.500 And that's an aggressive thing to say.

00:38:05.960 But, you know, when I think about the commanding heights of the global economy over the next five years, we're talking about AI and advanced technologies.

00:38:16.140 And these are places where what the Americans are doing and what the Chinese are doing are completely separate sets of investments.

00:38:23.600 They're not interoperable.

00:38:25.220 We're taking our researchers out of each other's programs.

00:38:28.300 We're not collaborating.

00:38:29.800 We're not communicating.

00:38:31.280 We're doing completely different things.

00:38:32.920 And so, you know, we're going to other countries and we're saying it's not just about if we want to talk about U.S.-China, we have to talk about American diplomacy with third parties and say, well, we're pressuring the Mexicans to ensure there are no transshipments of Chinese goods through Mexico into the United States.

00:38:51.460 We're pressuring the Netherlands to make sure that they're not actually, you know, sort of selling software design or semiconductors into China.

00:38:58.900 We're working on all of these countries to build alternate supply chains so that we don't rely on the Chinese. 0.99

00:39:05.280 That's not de-risking.

00:39:06.760 That's decoupling.

00:39:08.020 That's where the Americans are going long term.

00:39:10.060 But there's a recognition that for the next one, two, three years, you can't actually get that done.

00:39:16.020 You can't execute on that strategy near term.

00:39:19.340 You mentioned Mexico.

00:39:21.160 We can sort of connect the dot up to Canada.

00:39:24.140 What is the Trump administration's bone to pick with Canada?

00:39:29.620 What's the origin story?

00:39:30.920 Was it personality with Trudeau?

00:39:33.600 I mean, was it just, again, back to impulse?

00:39:36.820 Or is there a strategy?

00:39:39.740 I mean, this issue of sovereignty, Denmark, we've written about, I mean, we were down in Panama for a while.

00:39:46.380 We'll get to Venezuela perhaps in a moment with Maduro.

00:39:48.940 But what is the bone to pick with Canada?

00:39:52.080 Is there a strategy here?

00:39:53.580 Is there a rationale?

00:39:54.760 Well, given that the U.S.-Mexico-Canada agreement was, again, after the Abraham Accords, arguably the second biggest win of the first Trump administration.

00:40:04.680 Trump's own negotiated agreement.

00:40:05.980 Trump's own negotiated agreement.

00:40:07.540 Yes.

00:40:07.720 And that's why I say the second Trump term is so different from the first.

00:40:11.640 It's much more like I'm much more powerful and I am in a position where I can force you to accept asymmetric negotiations that benefit me to a greater degree.

00:40:24.160 And, you know, yes, at the beginning, of course, it was Justin Trudeau and the fact that he really disliked him personally.

00:40:33.600 And so when he came down to Mar-a-Lago and Trump had him surrounded at that table and he started talking to Governor Trudeau.

00:40:40.680 And you'll remember that there were, like, you know, hockey matches and the rest where they were booing the American national anthem.

00:40:48.280 All of the countries.

00:40:49.700 I mean, when I mentioned that the Americans are perceived as unreliable.

00:40:54.220 But there are a whole bunch of countries that are still trying to find more effective ways of can't we just get along?

00:41:01.280 Can't we not have a crisis?

00:41:02.400 Because Canada, because they know the Americans so well, they are so angry.

00:41:08.220 Yeah.

00:41:08.420 You look at how few Canadians are traveling to the U.S.

00:41:11.980 We rely on 1.9 million a year just in the state of California.

00:41:15.140 It's just, it's collapsed.

00:41:16.440 It's staunch.

00:41:17.120 Absolutely collapsed.

00:41:17.820 The economic damage, the self-harm we've done is off the charts.

00:41:20.940 That's a side.

00:41:21.660 But you're right.

00:41:22.180 It's interesting.

00:41:22.920 For the Canadians, it's raw.

00:41:24.440 It's raw.

00:41:25.020 Yeah.

00:41:25.360 Yeah.

00:41:25.660 I talked to hotel owners in Boston, New England, that kind of stuff. 1.00

00:41:28.140 Also, Canadian tourism has just fallen off a fucking cliff. 0.98

00:41:31.600 And so there's a huge amount of self-harm in a country that really integrates, trusts the Americans, right? 0.99

00:41:38.360 I mean, they're very similar people.

00:41:41.720 And remember, Mark Carney won because of Trump.

00:41:46.320 Period.

00:41:46.880 I mean, he was not in there with the fighting chance otherwise.

00:41:50.140 And we'll get to Lulu and we'll get to all these others that are beneficiaries of Trump's policies.

00:41:54.240 Yeah.

00:41:54.720 Australia, same thing happened.

00:41:56.040 It's interesting.

00:41:56.700 That's a good point.

00:41:57.300 A number of elections that Trump actually pushed in the other direction.

00:41:59.880 But what's it?

00:42:01.540 Shannon Baum said, the president of Mexico's played it from her perspective, Canadian, Mexican perspective.

00:42:08.460 Well, I would say so.

00:42:09.980 I think she's been one of the effective.

00:42:11.320 Sometimes a little frustrating for other trading partners and relationships, i.e. California and others.

00:42:16.660 But she's got a lot more to lose, no?

00:42:19.300 Yes.

00:42:19.520 She's, she's sort of, she's figured out how to play Trump a little bit differently than a lot of leaders, no?

00:42:27.980 Yeah.

00:42:28.360 I think that, what's interesting, you're talking about a PhD woman, environmental scientist, Berkeley grad.

00:42:35.940 I mean, you know, if she had been black and lesbian, I mean, like, you can't find me a demographic that's going to be more challenging for Trump to actually deal with, right?

00:42:46.340 And, and yet, and yet she's been, she's, she's talked with him frequently on the phone.

00:42:52.720 She has engaged.

00:42:54.460 She stands up for herself and her country on the issues that are utterly critical.

00:42:59.160 Like, for example, you can't send the military indirectly.

00:43:02.200 You can't send drones indirectly.

00:43:03.700 We'll cooperate with you.

00:43:05.360 But, you know, our sovereignty is, is utterly sacrosanct.

00:43:08.840 But she's given on border security, which has made Trump look good.

00:43:13.220 And it's, he's much more popular on that than he is on the economy right now.

00:43:16.260 She has given on trying to get China out of their economy, which frankly, the Chinese investments in Mexico haven't been that popular.

00:43:25.200 I mean, they're not manufacturing cars.

00:43:27.260 They're assembling.

00:43:27.800 There aren't many good jobs around that.

00:43:29.540 They're, they're sending in a whole bunch of cheap textiles.

00:43:31.940 A lot of Mexican small and medium producers are losing their jobs.

00:43:35.660 So, I mean, there's alignment on a lot of stuff.

00:43:39.600 They had their, their absolutely biggest fentanyl bust in Mexico under Sheinbaum for Trump.

00:43:47.900 They weren't doing that under Biden.

00:43:49.600 And by the way, I just heard from her cabinet just last week that the, that the bust in Nogales, I guess it was, with the United States actually grabbing all of these rifles, heavy rifles.

00:44:04.540 Right, they were going south.

00:44:05.980 They were going south was the single biggest seizure that has happened from the United States in Mexico.

00:44:13.340 Deserved a lot more attention.

00:44:14.400 But in Mexico, got a lot of attention.

00:44:15.740 Yeah, it's interesting.

00:44:16.480 We've been working, our own state national guard has been working.

00:44:19.780 I've deployed them to the border on precisely those operations working in partnership with the national guard in Mexico, which we have a formal relationship.

00:44:28.280 So, I applaud that effort.

00:44:30.740 That was significant.

00:44:32.020 And that's a, it's a good proof point of that relationship.

00:44:34.720 When we look more now.

00:44:36.420 But of course, they are deeply worried about like, you know, what happens with trade between the U.S. and Mexico.

00:44:41.140 It's the end of the day, as much as she's trying to manage it and she's doing a good job, they are deeply uncomfortable with the Americans saying, hey, USMCA, don't care what that says.

00:44:51.220 We're actually going to rip that off and we're going to hit you hard unless you improve trade terms with us.

00:44:56.660 That worries them a lot because, I mean, they are, you know, a much smaller economy and they are overwhelmingly reliant on the U.S.

00:45:03.860 Exactly right.

00:45:04.800 A decade ago, I was on the trail of one of the country's most elusive serial killers.

00:45:09.640 But it wasn't until 2023 when he was finally caught.

00:45:13.440 The answers were there, hidden in plain sight.

00:45:16.220 So why did it take so long to catch him?

00:45:18.660 I'm Josh Zeman and this is Monster, hunting the Long Island serial killer.

00:45:22.460 The investigation into the most notorious killer in New York since the son of Sam.

00:45:27.480 Available now.

00:45:28.440 Listen for free on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your podcasts.

00:45:35.780 On the podcast Health Stuff, we are tackling all the health questions that keep you up at night.

00:45:40.300 Yes, I'm Dr. Priyanka Wally, a double board certified physician.

00:45:44.440 And I'm Hari Kondabolu, comedian and someone who once Googled, do I have scurvy at 3 a.m.

00:45:49.780 On Health Stuff, we're talking about health in a different way.

00:45:53.480 It's not only about what we can do to improve our health.

00:45:56.020 But also what our health says about us and the way we're living.

00:45:59.580 Like our episode where we look at diabetes.

00:46:02.380 In the United States, I mean, 50% of Americans are pre-diabetic.

00:46:06.920 How preventable is type 2?

00:46:10.020 Extremely.

00:46:10.760 Or our in-depth analysis of how incredible mangoes are.

00:46:15.540 Oh, it's hard to explain to the rest of the world that, like, your mangoes are fine because

00:46:21.200 mangoes are incredible, but, like, you don't even know.

00:46:23.840 You don't know.

00:46:25.020 You don't know.

00:46:27.240 It's going to be a fun ride.

00:46:28.940 So tune in.

00:46:30.040 Listen to Health Stuff on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

00:46:35.240 The forces shaping the world's economies and financial markets can be hard to spot.

00:46:41.700 Even though they are such a powerful player in finance, you wouldn't really know that you are interacting with them.

00:46:47.880 And even harder to understand.

00:46:50.240 Donald Trump's trade war 2.0 is only accelerating the process of de-dollarization, which in a way is jargon for people turning away from the dollar.

00:47:00.520 That is where the big take from Bloomberg Podcast comes in, to connect the dots.

00:47:04.460 How unusual is a deal like this?

00:47:07.260 Unprecedented.

00:47:08.260 Every weekday afternoon, we dive deep into one big global business story.

00:47:12.880 The biggest story of the reaction of the oil market to the conflict in the Middle East is one of what has not happened.

00:47:19.780 Katie, you told me that ETFs are your favorite thing.

00:47:22.900 They are.

00:47:23.760 Explain that. Why is that the case?

00:47:25.620 And unpack what it means for you.

00:47:27.380 Our breakfast foods are consistent consumer staples, and so they sort of become outsized indicators of inflation.

00:47:35.240 Listen to the big take from Bloomberg News every weekday afternoon on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

00:47:42.360 What do you get when you mix 1950s Hollywood, a Cuban musician with a dream, and one of the most iconic sitcoms of all time?

00:47:52.220 You get Desi Arnaz, a trailblazer, a businessman, a husband, and maybe most importantly, the first Latino to break primetime wide open.

00:48:00.580 I'm Wilmer Valderrama, and yes, I grew up watching him, probably just like you and millions of others.

00:48:05.600 But for me, I saw myself in his story.

00:48:08.160 From plenty of canary cages to this night here in New York, it's a long ways.

00:48:13.000 On the podcast starring Desi Arnaz and Wilmer Valderrama, I'll take you on a journey to Desi's life, the moments it has overlapped with mine,

00:48:20.340 how he redefined American television, and what that meant for all of us watching from the sidelines, waiting for a face like ours on screen.

00:48:28.260 This is the story of how one man's spotlight lit the path for so many others, and how we carry his legacy today.

00:48:34.720 Listen to starring Desi Arnaz and Wilmer Valderrama as part of the My Cultura podcast network, available on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

00:48:45.060 Hey there, Dr. Jesse Mills here.

00:48:47.100 I'm the director of the men's clinic at UCLA Health, and I want to tell you about my new podcast called The Mailroom.

00:48:52.720 And I'm Jordan, the show's producer, and like a lot of guys, I haven't been to the doctor in many years.

00:48:58.700 I'll be asking the questions we probably should be asking, but aren't.

00:49:01.880 Because guys usually don't go to the doctor unless a piece of their face is hanging off or they've broken a bone.

00:49:07.160 Depends which bone.

00:49:08.500 Well, that's true. Every week we're breaking down the unique world of men's health, from testosterone and fitness to diets and fertility, and things that happen in the bedroom.

00:49:18.700 You mean sleep?

00:49:19.860 Yeah, something like that, Jordan.

00:49:21.560 We'll talk science without the jargon and get you real answers to the stuff you actually wonder about.

00:49:26.680 It's going to be fun, whether you're 27, 97, or somewhere in between.

00:49:30.620 Men's Health is about more than six packs and supplements.

00:49:33.840 It's about energy, confidence, and connection.

00:49:37.100 We don't just want you to live longer.

00:49:38.920 We want you to live better.

00:49:40.540 So check out The Mailroom on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your favorite shows.

00:49:45.900 The issues of narco-trafficking, et cetera, it's obviously raised, and when I was down at COP in Brazil, this was a question.

00:49:55.860 I had a press conference, a few hundred reporters, and it was interesting how many questions I got on this topic.

00:50:01.120 Not on topic, meaning climate issues.

00:50:03.940 Because they expect that the Americans are going to start bombing Venezuela any day.

00:50:07.720 You got it.

00:50:08.300 I mean, a lot of people are speculating.

00:50:10.400 It's a little bit of wag the dog.

00:50:11.980 There's a lot of distrust about the administration, particularly at the time Epstein files and everything else going on.

00:50:18.420 Everything that arguably is going wrong.

00:50:20.940 Trump's had a difficult few weeks, and I would argue a few months, but don't really last few weeks.

00:50:25.880 What do you make of what's going on with these strikes on these boats?

00:50:32.300 Is this a strategy to take out Maduro?

00:50:36.800 Is it a strategy to create anxiety for their regime of sorts, for folks down in that region more broadly?

00:50:47.340 I mean, it clearly isn't just a strategy to take out these boats, because the expense and the amount of materiel that the Americans presently have arrayed off the coast is radically beyond what you would need for that, right?

00:51:02.300 Let's put an aircraft carrier down there, doesn't it? 0.97

00:51:03.860 That's right.

00:51:04.420 Yeah.

00:51:04.740 Yeah.

00:51:04.980 Strike group.

00:51:05.880 Yeah.

00:51:06.260 Yeah.

00:51:06.920 No.

00:51:07.320 Now, I think what's interesting, though, is that unlike a lot of the policies you and I have been talking about in the past moments,

00:51:15.520 this is one that Trump has not personally been driving details on.

00:51:20.720 This is Rubio?

00:51:21.580 This is, it's Rubio, it's Ratcliffe and CIA, it's Stephen Miller, actually, as well.

00:51:28.960 And they've really been pushing pretty hard to nothing is going to be worse than the Maduro regime right now.

00:51:37.200 There are several reasons.

00:51:38.700 It is cocaine export coming into the United States.

00:51:43.000 It is oil going illegally to Cuba and then on to China.

00:51:48.780 It is ideological that you've got Venezuela, you've got Nicaragua, you've got Cuba, these revolutionary leftist regimes where otherwise in the region, most of these countries are turning towards the United States and towards the right.

00:52:00.260 And so there's a whole bunch of things happening at the same time.

00:52:03.220 And it's also a little bit of, hey, we were successful with Iran.

00:52:08.480 You know, all we need to do is a little flex.

00:52:11.200 We don't need boots on the ground.

00:52:12.660 We can get rid of this guy.

00:52:14.080 So I think that's what's driving them.

00:52:16.720 But this is going to be a lot harder because, you know, you are at the end of the day talking about wanting Maduro out.

00:52:24.420 And what replaces him and how that gets done and who's responsible for that?

00:52:30.560 I mean, chaos is a real option here.

00:52:33.480 And chaos can easily be worse than the devil, you know, as we've seen in Libya, as we've seen in Iraq.

00:52:39.620 And I would hate to see that kind of quagmire on America's shoulders, again, as much as I find Maduro utterly despicable and want to see this guy out of power.

00:52:51.960 It's interesting.

00:52:53.080 So what's, I mean, what's your over-under, I mean, just in terms of your assessment of risk in terms of them escalating?

00:52:59.720 I mean, clearly they've escalated significantly last week or so.

00:53:03.380 But what do you anticipate the next few months, weeks, months, in terms of any additional activities?

00:53:08.460 I would say close to 100% that there will be direct U.S. military strikes against targets in Venezuela.

00:53:17.120 Yes.

00:53:17.800 Now, that is not necessarily regime change.

00:53:20.600 I would be stunned if they don't.

00:53:22.660 I'm stunned.

00:53:24.180 Everything is oriented, including like just the cadence of meetings in the situation room on this.

00:53:30.740 The amount of like, you know, intel and scenario planning.

00:53:33.560 And there's no way they're putting this much effort into it to just say, ah, I'm just going to climb down, don't really care.

00:53:39.420 Unless Maduro were to be forced out absent that push.

00:53:43.860 And I just think he has too much control for that to happen.

00:53:47.600 Interesting.

00:53:48.040 Let's talk about control, things not happening.

00:53:51.000 Clearly, the Trump administration overpromised significantly in terms of controlling the agenda for peace deal with Putin and Ukraine.

00:54:00.860 What do you make?

00:54:01.700 Did you, I imagine we all came in with some hope and expectation that we can turn the page, that maybe the power personality, the relationships between the two leaders that could be persuaded.

00:54:12.280 I mean, did, where do you think we are right now?

00:54:15.340 Was, was the bilat up in Alaska a complete abject failure?

00:54:22.060 So where are we right now?

00:54:23.780 I mean, Trump really did think that his relationship with Putin was going to make a difference.

00:54:29.420 I think he came to that honestly.

00:54:30.800 He, he saw that Biden did not treat Putin as an equal leader at all.

00:54:37.700 Remember, the whole thing was autocrats and Democrats. 0.79

00:54:41.120 And he wasn't going to pick up the phone to talk with Putin.

00:54:44.040 He certainly wasn't going to invite him to a bilateral summit.

00:54:46.860 Trump was willing to do all of that.

00:54:48.500 And in fact, that first phone call he had with Putin, he, it was a two hour phone call.

00:54:52.780 He didn't even coordinate with the allies in advance.

00:54:54.840 So he gave Putin so much more respect as an equivalent great power.

00:55:02.400 The way, when he met with Xi Jinping the last time around, when he spoke with him, that he said, this is a G2 meeting, right?

00:55:09.900 I mean, he's seeding the field of we're the two great nations, right?

00:55:14.800 No one, no other American president would do that.

00:55:16.960 And so between that and saying that he would end the sanctions and he would no longer freeze the assets and they could work together on arms control and up in the Arctic and critical mineral exploitation, there was a lot that was being offered.

00:55:30.960 And Trump had already showed through the Ukrainians that he was willing to really pressure Ukraine to accept a ceasefire with no preconditions, which again, Biden didn't do.

00:55:41.080 I mean, Biden, I'd be talking to Jake Sullivan, I'd be talking to like, you know, all of the people around Biden and they'd be saying, well, we can't really get them to accept the terms for a ceasefire.

00:55:52.900 The Europeans are having a hard time with it.

00:55:54.840 It's hard to bring up.

00:55:55.940 Trump went directly to the source, got that done.

00:55:59.320 But Putin was absolutely uninterested in moving an inch on a ceasefire.

00:56:07.800 And kind of humiliated Trump, honestly.

00:56:11.760 And I think that Trump has taken it personally.

00:56:14.140 Even though he clearly doesn't want to escalate against Russia, he now has put himself in a position where he is escalating against Russia.

00:56:22.820 He is directly permissioning missiles that the Americans have provided to Ukraine and allowing them to take it out of the box.

00:56:32.120 In other words, going far deeper in terms of their strikes with U.S. intelligence on targeting, taking out Russian energy capabilities.

00:56:40.420 And that's why oil prices have been started to push up in the high 60s and might go to 70.

00:56:45.760 Wouldn't shock me in that environment.

00:56:48.080 Trump also on Luke oil, on Rosneft, telling the Indians, I'm willing to give you a trade deal. 0.55

00:56:53.960 But part of that is you stop buying that oil from Russia.

00:56:57.620 Biden was willing to allow them to buy that oil from Russia.

00:57:00.960 So, I mean, for all of the talk about how Trump has been some kind of a Russian asset, the reality is Trump wanted a good relationship with Putin.

00:57:11.460 He doesn't care about the human rights abuses.

00:57:13.540 He doesn't care about the fact that he's dictated.

00:57:14.920 That could even be a feature, not a bug.

00:57:16.800 But now that Trump has humiliated him, not given him what he wants, Trump's pretty angry.

00:57:22.440 And Trump can also legitimately say, hey, the Europeans are doing most of the lifting now.

00:57:27.340 Yeah.

00:57:27.600 Which is what I wanted from day one.

00:57:28.800 They're the ones spending most of the money.

00:57:30.260 We're not.

00:57:31.520 And that so.

00:57:33.100 He would argue we're making money.

00:57:34.880 We're selling arms.

00:57:35.660 He would argue that.

00:57:36.400 Yeah.

00:57:37.040 He would argue that.

00:57:38.060 So we're literally making money off the war because we're selling arms.

00:57:40.960 He would say that.

00:57:41.600 Yeah.

00:57:41.760 What?

00:57:42.060 And so, I mean, you see Putin 5, 10.

00:57:45.840 I mean, is this another Afghanistan from Putin's perspective?

00:57:48.820 I mean, he's just going to wear everybody out.

00:57:50.720 This is another two, three years.

00:57:52.340 Grind, grind, grind. 0.89

00:57:53.280 I mean, inch by inch.

00:57:54.980 I mean, at what point do you see Zelensky breaking?

00:57:58.120 The EU saying we've had enough.

00:58:00.740 I mean, we, you know, we've got to move on.

00:58:02.300 How many more winters are people going to suffer?

00:58:04.540 How many more tens of thousands of lives are going to be lost?

00:58:07.160 So, Gavin, we've been coming up now on almost four years of war.

00:58:10.480 And after the first few months, it's been, you know, it hasn't moved a hell of a lot.

00:58:16.040 I feel like we've been lulled into a false sense of stability in this war.

00:58:21.880 I don't think, if God forbid we have another two, three years of the war, which is wholly 0.60

00:58:26.120 plausible, I don't think it's going to stay the same the way it has.

00:58:31.040 Meaning it's going to significantly escalate.

00:58:33.500 I fear that it's going to escalate for a few different reasons.

00:58:37.540 First, because I think the AWOL numbers of Ukrainian soldiers in the last year, I'm hearing

00:58:44.240 from the Ukrainians are about 300,000.

00:58:46.340 That's a lot greater than it was a year ago.

00:58:48.980 Having a harder time getting the reservists to actually fight.

00:58:52.480 The Ukrainians are stepping up their own indigenous military capabilities.

00:58:56.980 These Flamingo missiles with a 3,000 kilometer capability.

00:59:02.540 And they're making 100 of them every month.

00:59:05.700 Their drone capacity, which is massive.

00:59:09.000 And a willingness to hit the Russians a lot harder because the Ukrainians see that they 0.99

00:59:14.840 can't continue to fight the way they have.

00:59:17.360 At the same time, you know, the Russians just in the last few days,

00:59:21.220 we saw clearly ordered these agents to try to blow up a Polish train that was providing

00:59:31.080 aid to Ukraine.

00:59:31.860 This was after sending drones 300 kilometers into Poland.

00:59:35.860 I mean, I talked to a lot of the frontline leaders, the Baltic states, the Nordics, the

00:59:40.280 Poles. 0.96

00:59:40.720 They're deeply concerned that this Russian asymmetrical warfare is already happening inside NATO.

00:59:51.880 And NATO hasn't done very much in direct response to that.

00:59:55.520 So if you're Putin, you think, OK, I can get away with that.

00:59:57.720 Can I get away with a little more?

00:59:58.820 Can I do a little more?

00:59:59.440 With the intention of dividing the Europeans, because you're hitting the frontline states,

01:00:04.480 you're not hitting Spain, right?

01:00:06.020 You're not hitting Italy.

01:00:06.980 So you get those guys to say, hey, we don't want to be a part of this.

01:00:09.980 So I think that for lots of reasons, both in terms of the direct Russia-Ukraine flight

01:00:14.480 and also in terms of Russia and NATO, that the potential of this gets significantly worse.

01:00:20.600 And look, it's been horrific for the Ukrainian people.

01:00:23.380 And it's been horrific for the Russians fighting.

01:00:25.880 I mean, they've already had over a million casualties.

01:00:28.400 So I'm not trying to diminish that at all.

01:00:30.820 But for those of us sitting kibitzing about this in the United States, Russia-Ukraine has 0.83

01:00:36.800 seemed like a war von Tom, way over there, as the Russians would say.

01:00:41.560 And I fear it's going to start becoming a little more real for us.

01:00:48.320 A decade ago, I was on the trail of one of the country's most elusive serial killers.

01:00:53.380 But it wasn't until 2023 when he was finally caught.

01:00:56.980 The answers were there, hidden in plain sight.

01:00:59.760 So why did it take so long to catch him?

01:01:02.180 I'm Josh Zeman, and this is Monster, hunting the Long Island serial killer.

01:01:06.300 The investigation into the most notorious killer in New York since the Son of Sam.

01:01:11.020 Available now.

01:01:11.980 Listen for free on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

01:01:17.040 On the podcast Health Stuff, we are tackling all the health questions that keep you up

01:01:23.320 at night.

01:01:23.860 Yes, I'm Dr. Priyanka Wally, a double board certified physician.

01:01:28.040 And I'm Hari Kondabolu, a comedian and someone who once googled,

01:01:31.400 do I have scurvy at 3 a.m.

01:01:33.380 On Health Stuff, we're talking about health in a different way.

01:01:37.020 It's not only about what we can do to improve our health.

01:01:39.560 But also what our health says about us and the way we're living.

01:01:42.800 Like our episode where we look at diabetes.

01:01:45.920 In the United States, I mean, 50% of Americans are pre-diabetic.

01:01:50.440 How preventable is type 2?

01:01:53.460 Extremely.

01:01:54.580 Or our in-depth analysis of how incredible mangoes are.

01:01:59.780 Oh, it's hard to explain to the rest of the world that, like,

01:02:03.340 your mangoes are fine because mangoes are incredible, but, like, you don't even know.

01:02:07.380 You don't know.

01:02:08.560 You don't know.

01:02:10.760 It's going to be a fun ride.

01:02:12.280 So tune in.

01:02:13.600 Listen to Health Stuff on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

01:02:20.000 The Big Take podcast from Bloomberg News dives deep into one big global business story every weekday.

01:02:26.780 A shutdown means we don't get the data, but it also means for President Trump that

01:02:30.800 there's no chance of bad news on the labor market.

01:02:34.780 What does a bacon, egg and cheese sandwich reveal about the economy?

01:02:37.720 Our breakfast foods are consistent consumer staples, and so they sort of become outsized indicators of inflation.

01:02:45.240 What's behind Elon Musk's trillion-dollar payout?

01:02:48.940 There's a sort of concerted effort to message that Musk is coming back.

01:02:53.880 He's putting politics aside.

01:02:55.460 He's left the White House.

01:02:57.300 And what can the PCE tell you that the CPI can't?

01:03:00.400 CPI tries to measure out-of-pocket costs that consumers are paying for things,

01:03:06.540 whereas the PCE index that the Fed targets is a little bit broader of a measure.

01:03:11.940 Listen to The Big Take from Bloomberg News every weekday afternoon on the iHeartRadio app,

01:03:16.700 Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

01:03:19.100 What do you get when you mix 1950s Hollywood, a Cuban musician with a dream,

01:03:25.800 and one of the most iconic sitcoms of all time?

01:03:28.680 You get Desi Arness, a trailblazer, a businessman, a husband, and maybe, most importantly,

01:03:34.140 the first Latino to break primetime wide open.

01:03:36.740 I'm Wilmer Valderrama, and yes, I grew up watching him, probably just like you and millions of others.

01:03:42.060 But for me, I saw myself in his story.

01:03:44.080 From cleaning canary cages to this night here in New York, it's a long ways.

01:03:49.100 On the podcast starring Desi Arness and Wilmer Valderrama,

01:03:52.460 I'll take you on a journey to Desi's life, the moments it has overlapped with mine,

01:03:56.520 how he redefined American television, and what that meant for all of us watching from the sidelines,

01:04:01.980 waiting for a face like ours on screen.

01:04:04.440 This is a story of how one man's spotlight lit the path for so many others,

01:04:08.740 and how we carry his legacy today.

01:04:10.900 Listen to starring Desi Arness and Wilmer Valderrama

01:04:14.480 as part of the My Cultura Podcast Network,

01:04:16.740 available on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

01:04:21.220 Hey there, Dr. Jesse Mills here.

01:04:23.260 I'm the director of the men's clinic at UCLA Health,

01:04:25.740 and I want to tell you about my new podcast called The Mailroom.

01:04:28.840 And I'm Jordan, the show's producer.

01:04:30.680 And like a lot of guys, I haven't been to the doctor in many years.

01:04:34.800 I'll be asking the questions we probably should be asking, but aren't.

01:04:38.080 Because guys usually don't go to the doctor unless a piece of their face is hanging off,

01:04:41.920 or they've broken a bone.

01:04:43.340 Depends which bone.

01:04:44.220 Well, that's true.

01:04:45.880 Every week, we're breaking down the unique world of men's health, 1.00

01:04:48.800 from testosterone and fitness to diets and fertility,

01:04:51.900 and things that happen in the bedroom.

01:04:54.880 You mean sleep?

01:04:56.020 Yeah, something like that, Jordan.

01:04:57.740 We'll talk science without the jargon

01:04:59.640 and get you real answers to the stuff you actually wonder about.

01:05:02.860 It's going to be fun,

01:05:03.680 whether you're 27, 97, or somewhere in between.

01:05:07.420 Men's Health is about more than six packs and supplements.

01:05:09.960 It's about energy, confidence, and connection.

01:05:12.840 We don't just want you to live longer.

01:05:15.140 We want you to live better.

01:05:16.700 So check out The Mailroom on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts,

01:05:20.340 or wherever you get your favorite shows.

01:05:24.400 The NATO, the relationship with NATO.

01:05:27.640 It seems NATO stepped, I mean, Trump tested the theory around the 2%.

01:05:32.800 I mean, obviously, he's got these guys.

01:05:34.480 I mean, you mentioned Spain.

01:05:35.480 They may not be on board.

01:05:36.560 They're not.

01:05:36.860 But clearly, NATO, their posture has been a little bit more assertive

01:05:41.860 in terms of their own contributions.

01:05:44.220 And there's some curious ways they determine and calculate.

01:05:47.920 What those numbers are.

01:05:48.900 Those numbers.

01:05:49.220 So I think there's a little bit of press release

01:05:51.340 and celebrate success on that.

01:05:53.640 But what, I mean, do you think he's played NATO

01:05:55.720 and very effective and strategically, Trump?

01:05:59.520 I mean, despite how he's handled it,

01:06:01.420 the outcome in terms of where he's positioned NATO,

01:06:04.040 are we better off as a United States, I mean, the relationship to NATO

01:06:07.060 than we were prior to this new Trump?

01:06:10.060 We're clearly better off because the Europeans are spending more. 0.94

01:06:13.580 We're clearly better off because the Germans are now taking this seriously. 0.77

01:06:17.260 We're a little worse off in the sense that the trust has been so eroded to get there.

01:06:22.300 So, I mean, you know, you kind of want to be in the middle, right?

01:06:26.400 You've had this policy of extremes where for a long time,

01:06:29.760 the Americans didn't really press the Europeans.

01:06:32.080 So the Europeans were free riding. 0.87

01:06:34.040 And they weren't developing their own military capabilities.

01:06:36.940 That made them a lot more vulnerable.

01:06:38.680 And now they have to really get up to speed fast.

01:06:41.800 But the damage that's being done to a lot of the relationships is real

01:06:46.680 and is going to be persistent for a long, long time.

01:06:49.900 It's going to be hard to build.

01:06:51.020 And I would be perfectly happy with the Trump approach of,

01:06:56.460 you guys have to spend or else we're out,

01:06:58.980 if it was not aligned with J.D. Vance and others saying,

01:07:05.220 you guys are the principal adversaries and you don't respect rule of law or free speech.

01:07:09.880 And we don't want to be aligned with your governments.

01:07:14.100 We want the AFD in Germany,

01:07:16.400 which the German government sees as a neo-Nazi party, right?

01:07:21.660 So I think that we've done a lot of own goals by having this,

01:07:28.240 let's just flood the zone on every issue and fight against our allies on everything,

01:07:33.300 as opposed to picking the few things that are really important for the strategic relationship.

01:07:38.400 And that's where the fight is.

01:07:39.740 And on everything else, keep it stable.

01:07:42.220 Don't make the news.

01:07:43.220 Don't make the headline.

01:07:44.060 But that's not the way this administration works.

01:07:45.980 And they don't really care about the long term, right?

01:07:49.760 That's the problem.

01:07:50.960 So short term, this is going to look like a lot of wins

01:07:53.900 because you can point to the Europeans and say,

01:07:56.140 look at how much they're doing and look at how much they're lifting.

01:07:58.680 And, you know, they're really, when Zelensky last came over to the White House,

01:08:02.380 look at how the Europeans all came with them.

01:08:04.240 And we're all sitting there like, you know,

01:08:06.200 sort of being lectured to by the American president.

01:08:08.160 Doesn't that mean the Americans are showing leadership?

01:08:10.080 And to a degree, the answer to that is yes.

01:08:12.760 But you can't sit and think that these alliances can just take this idea

01:08:20.400 that there's no friendship, no trust, no shared values,

01:08:23.680 that the only thing that aligns them is, you know,

01:08:28.220 some common present day interest from a deal that's been struck.

01:08:32.700 That's not an alliance.

01:08:33.980 You've talked a lot.

01:08:35.020 I mean, this notion of short termism with Trump.

01:08:37.120 That's why we needed you and Bella.

01:08:38.480 That's why it was important for you to go.

01:08:39.840 And I appreciate that.

01:08:41.420 And I want to connect a few dots in terms of just my,

01:08:45.100 it was interesting just having the opportunity to meet with leaders from around the globe,

01:08:48.740 from Colombia to Chile, not just South America, Central America and European,

01:08:53.240 and to hear the feedback and to hear what you hear in private,

01:08:58.260 what is obviously what Trump often does not hear

01:09:02.280 or is not interested in even knowing about in terms of their perspective is important.

01:09:06.900 But here, the perspective of short termism, which you've written a lot about,

01:09:10.900 you've talked about, you've studied, versus long term interests.

01:09:14.980 You know, you referenced AI.

01:09:17.960 We talked about the bilat in APEC, which Trump did not participate in the APEC conference,

01:09:23.460 but did the photo op and had the short inter exchange with President Xi.

01:09:28.500 W.H.O. talked about USA, AID, immigration policy, the attack on research in universities.

01:09:37.540 I mean, the seeds of our own destruction in many respects, that's an overstatement perhaps.

01:09:42.340 It is.

01:09:42.640 But the significant damage that potentially we're doing to these conveyor belts for talent,

01:09:49.760 to this formula, some would say, for success, that has defined the American dream,

01:09:55.380 certainly defined California dream, those seeds have been planted.

01:10:00.680 I mean, mass immigration or deportation, rather, issues around the universities,

01:10:08.960 which we're feeling here in California, disproportionately $584 million of grants,

01:10:14.460 research grants, NIH, NSF grants, a billion dollar extortion fee and fine that Trump wants from the UC system.

01:10:23.460 You mentioned what China's doing as it relates to potentially getting the best and the brightest

01:10:29.080 in first round draft choices, because we've seen a significant decline in international students.

01:10:34.620 I think 17% so far, year over year.

01:10:38.900 What do you make of all of that?

01:10:41.080 And are we, again, am I overstating the impacts in the medium and long term in terms of the damage?

01:10:46.960 There'll be done these alliances, truth, trust, these relations, easy to damage stuff, hard to build those things back.

01:10:52.240 So I think you can't look at the whole elephant, all of the damage that's being done to so much American trust and soft power and commitment

01:11:06.100 that has been undone, unwound unnecessarily, and think that it's all just going to be fine because these countries have nowhere else to go.

01:11:16.940 It is true that they have nowhere else good to go, right?

01:11:22.020 There is no other market that you would bet on as much as you would bet on the United States at this point and in the near term future.

01:11:28.560 But they will all hedge.

01:11:30.560 They will all do less.

01:11:32.560 And, you know, it's not death by a thousand cuts, but it's a lot of injury by a thousand cuts, you know?

01:11:38.660 I mean, you know, you're Gulliver and you take enough Lilliputians and eventually your limbs don't work quite as well, right?

01:11:45.020 And they are, a lot of them are Lilliputians because, and I don't mean to disparage, but the fact is that the big change in the U.S. alliance system in the last 30 years has been American allies getting weaker.

01:11:57.680 It's not been America getting weaker.

01:11:59.440 The American allies have, they have not invested.

01:12:02.820 They are not growing.

01:12:04.020 And you're talking about EU.

01:12:05.780 EU, UK, Canada, Japan, Australia, South Korea.

01:12:09.600 All of them.

01:12:10.460 From a GDP perspective, from an innovation and entrepreneurial perspective.

01:12:13.780 Yep, new technologies, defense, growth, productivity, even demographics in the case of most of them.

01:12:19.780 Every single piece.

01:12:21.400 And so, you know.

01:12:22.260 But the reason why we have outperformed all of those reasons, those underlying reasons, back to that formula for success.

01:12:31.060 Those things are being vandalized.

01:12:32.740 They're putting sand in the gears of all those things.

01:12:34.320 So what I would want Trump to do, I wouldn't, I would want Trump to say, look, we need our allies, but we need strong allies.

01:12:42.980 So the EU is not a threat to us.

01:12:45.460 We don't want the EU to break apart where we have much stronger relations with individual European countries that we can drag into the dirt and force them to do what we want.

01:12:53.540 No.

01:12:54.040 We want the EU to be stronger.

01:12:56.500 Because a stronger EU is more capable of being a useful ally with the United States and fighting against Russia, fighting against China, and maybe even forcing them over time to align more with our own interests.

01:13:10.380 A strong Canada, a strong Japan, a strong South Korea.

01:13:13.940 That's the message that you want, that the Americans need friends, but they need capable friends.

01:13:20.020 That's a message that allows, and yeah, there's got to be some tough love, that if you don't do these things, that we're not going to give you what we did before.

01:13:28.300 But it's not we want to destroy the EU.

01:13:30.840 It's not that we want the anti-establishment populace who don't care about your strength to win in these individual countries just because those people happen to like me and we're simpatico on the global stage.

01:13:41.920 But that's a long-term perspective.

01:13:43.940 Where short-term, Trump is like, of course I want, you know, sort of the AFD.

01:13:48.220 Of course I want, you know, sort of reform in the UK.

01:13:51.020 And these guys would completely undermine the productivity of their own countries.

01:13:56.760 So that's where I think there's real misalignment.

01:14:00.160 It's not that the Americans don't understand the symptoms of what's ailing everyone geopolitically, but the cure that they're offering is going to make the patient worse.

01:14:14.440 You wrote a book, Us Versus Them, talked about this notion of, you know, well, you framed globalization in, I think, a very honest and reflective way.

01:14:25.320 Winners and losers, et cetera.

01:14:27.340 We experienced it.

01:14:28.180 This is a period of de-globalization.

01:14:30.520 How would you describe this moment?

01:14:31.600 I would say this is a period where the United States is no longer driving globalization.

01:14:36.160 There are still processes of globalization that are occurring.

01:14:38.840 I mean, when I think about globalization, I think about people and goods and services and capital ideas moving across borders faster and faster all over the world.

01:14:46.860 There are certainly lots of that that is happening more and more.

01:14:49.800 Technology facilitates it.

01:14:51.120 But the United States is no longer driving it.

01:14:54.540 In many ways, the U.S. is assertively moving away from it.

01:14:59.340 And there is a level of decoupling happening directly between the United States and China and forcing other countries to make uncomfortable decisions.

01:15:10.240 So, yeah, I don't think we're in an environment where globalization is, you know, sort of being driven by the economists and the political scientists don't have anything to say about it.

01:15:19.580 The politics are throwing sand in the gears and it acts as a tax on the productivity.

01:15:26.640 But we can't just think of this in terms of the economic shift.

01:15:29.600 We also have to recognize that so much of this is that the U.S. political system, while the U.S. economy has been doing so well, the U.S. dollar has been doing so well, the U.S. political system is not.

01:15:39.460 And I think this is the fundamental issue that when I started my work on my Ph.D. back in 1989, the wall came down.

01:15:47.720 And I think part of the reason I wanted to do what I do is because this was a time of great pride to be an American. 0.57

01:15:55.320 Because the wall coming down, I mean, you had all these captive nations, East Bloc, Soviet Union, were looking at our system and saying, damn, I wish my country worked like that. 0.99

01:16:04.620 I wish I had some of that liberty, some of that rule of law.

01:16:06.980 And in 35 years, people still want access to the U.S. market and our technologies and our companies best in the world.

01:16:15.600 But nobody around the world looks at the U.S. political system and says, I wish my political system ran like that in 35 years.

01:16:24.600 And I think that it is very hard to overestimate the impact of that damage on relations around the world long term.

01:16:35.420 Because you're no longer driving what people want to be.

01:16:39.180 You're no longer acting.

01:16:40.540 And that's this fundamental notion.

01:16:42.600 I mean, the historic project of our founding fathers, you're referencing this notion of popular sovereignty broadly.

01:16:50.420 And we'll maybe reserve that popular sovereignty aside.

01:16:53.560 But this notion of the rule of law.

01:16:55.440 I'll get to the rule of dawn, which you coined, which I've cripped.

01:16:58.760 This notion of co-equal branches of government.

01:17:01.640 What aspects of our political system do you fear are most being, you know, are looked at negatively now in that respect?

01:17:14.540 They're fundamental on the global stage.

01:17:18.120 You talk about commitment to being the architect of global free trade, which the United States is no longer willing to do.

01:17:26.940 And not only that, but the idea of a well-regulated free market, increasingly people looking at the U.S. and saying this is a country that supports kleptocracy.

01:17:36.020 This is a country that supports state corruption.

01:17:39.160 And that the best way to cut a deal is to make sure that you're paying off the right people that are close to the administration.

01:17:43.980 So you're talking, I mean, now you're getting into, I mean, just looking at the self-dealing, looking at.

01:17:49.520 That's part of it.

01:17:50.460 Yeah.

01:17:50.740 And it's one thing.

01:17:51.720 Sort of what someone called the crony capitalism.

01:17:54.480 Yeah.

01:17:54.680 They're sort of almost pay to play.

01:17:56.840 I hear this from so many leaders.

01:17:58.420 Yeah.

01:17:58.700 And I hear this from so many CEOs inside the United States who are global CEOs.

01:18:02.920 Yeah.

01:18:03.500 No, and I mean, I couldn't agree with you more.

01:18:05.640 I mean, I did a Patriot site where I literally am selling knee pads, Trump signature series knee pads.

01:18:11.500 You said they sold.

01:18:12.140 I think you said they sold out.

01:18:13.160 They sold out.

01:18:14.060 Yeah.

01:18:14.340 No.

01:18:14.580 And yeah.

01:18:15.060 Well, there are plenty of reasons why they've sold out because there's so many examples of law firms and universities and media companies, not least of which some of my friends and CEOs that have sold out.

01:18:27.340 In that spirit.

01:18:28.620 But they're selling out what makes this, to your point, a reputation of this country.

01:18:33.620 They're selling out what makes the United States so central and so important.

01:18:38.600 And so I couldn't agree with you more.

01:18:40.760 But it's interesting.

01:18:41.300 From your perspective, though, you started with free trade.

01:18:45.140 You talked about sort of just the global leadership that this country has advanced in terms of building alliances and building that.

01:18:53.240 Yeah, collective security.

01:18:54.840 And NATO is still there.

01:18:56.960 And arguably, NATO is stronger than it was before because it's expanded a couple Nordic countries and the countries are spending more.

01:19:03.800 But the belief that the United States would actually stand for collective security if a country was invaded, that's deteriorated significantly.

01:19:14.080 And, you know, that belief in American reliability is core to collective security.

01:19:19.440 So you undermine that foreign aid.

01:19:21.700 The United States has historically provided more foreign aid than any other country in the world.

01:19:26.280 Still providing a lot of support to Israel and to Egypt.

01:19:29.840 But around the world, they're shutting it down.

01:19:31.940 And the United Nations was created by the United States.

01:19:35.980 Yeah, right here in San Francisco.

01:19:37.240 Right here in San Francisco.

01:19:38.460 And the UN Charter reflected American values.

01:19:42.600 And it's something I'm really proud of.

01:19:44.260 Yeah.

01:19:44.740 And I think part of the reason that we don't support the UN right now is because we look at what the UN stands for.

01:19:52.060 And we feel a little shame that it's not what America stands for anymore today.

01:19:58.880 And we don't like that.

01:20:00.140 We don't like we don't like something that we created making us look, you know, some reflective on ourselves.

01:20:06.500 But I think all of these things from the perspective of other countries around the world that really do need rule of law, they really do need collective security.

01:20:16.480 They do need U.S.-led multilateral trade because otherwise they don't have the ability to operate in a in a global system that is a law of the jungle.

01:20:27.840 They just don't.

01:20:28.880 They don't have the ability to operate and succeed under rule of dawn.

01:20:32.100 They need rule of law.

01:20:33.240 And I think that's a serious problem.

01:20:36.000 Well, you talk about apex predators or this notion that sort of T-Rex presidency where the guy either devours you or he mates with you one or the other.

01:20:44.320 You have that option.

01:20:45.540 That's very visual.

01:20:46.660 It is visual.

01:20:47.440 Forgive me.

01:20:47.760 But I mean, this notion of the rule of the jungle and the rule of dawn and and I, you know, I've used your phrase and I hope it is dawning on people how real and serious that is.

01:21:01.160 And it's example here in California.

01:21:02.960 We're in the receiving end of so much of this disproportionately.

01:21:05.500 But increasingly, I hope people are growing more and more conscious of this.

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01:25:42.880 favorite shows.

01:25:44.700 But I want to just close on my full time on two things that we haven't brought up.

01:25:49.140 This issue of AI seems also that we're seeding global leadership on AI and AI standards.

01:25:57.020 California's led this country in terms of at least addressing frontier model regulation.

01:26:01.800 And there's some legislation in New York right now that potentially can mirror aspects of

01:26:07.800 what we have done here in our state.

01:26:10.640 We take the issue very seriously as the birthplace and obviously the center of the universe in

01:26:15.220 terms of AI.

01:26:15.700 But you mentioned China in relationship to AI.

01:26:19.460 What does AI mean from your perspective when we look at geopolitically and risks, rewards,

01:26:26.020 opportunities, challenges in the next two, three years?

01:26:31.640 Superintelligence, national security, truth, trust.

01:26:36.360 What do you make of AI?

01:26:37.220 I'm not worried particularly about superintelligence.

01:26:40.800 I think that I'm much more worried about what human beings that control and program the

01:26:45.520 algorithms are doing with them if they are bad actors, if they're indifferent, if they're

01:26:49.960 just focused on short-term fiduciary responsibility as opposed to well-being long-term.

01:26:54.900 And if they're not really capitalists.

01:26:56.960 Because really capitalists care about not just profits but also losses.

01:27:01.200 They're capitalists also when they experience losses.

01:27:03.100 And yet a lot of the people that are driving AI do not account for the losses in society,

01:27:11.120 do not account for the losses in the economy that come from damages, from product damages

01:27:17.020 that come from rolling these things out.

01:27:18.900 So I think we need more capitalism among the AI folks in that regard.

01:27:22.180 It's interesting.

01:27:23.620 You know, but I am enormous enthusiast about this technology.

01:27:28.960 I mean, you're just down there in Brazil and you saw Bill Gates saying he's focused less

01:27:33.800 on climate change because, not because he doesn't care, not because he doesn't believe

01:27:38.080 the science, he certainly does, but because he thinks that what happens in AI is going

01:27:42.660 to be more impactful in the near term to determine all these things.

01:27:45.980 I buy that.

01:27:46.880 You do buy that.

01:27:47.360 I do.

01:27:47.640 I mean, I think that we can exceed sustainable development goals that we've been failing

01:27:56.560 to meet in terms of poverty, in terms of availability of food and water, in terms of shelter, in terms

01:28:04.880 of efficiency, of the transfer of resources.

01:28:07.760 So much of the world is so wealthy and yet we waste so much that's so inefficient.

01:28:12.080 AI can fix that.

01:28:13.660 But we need to make sure that everyone has access to it.

01:28:17.540 It needs to be invested in and not just be a tool that's available for a tiny percentage

01:28:21.640 of really rich people and everybody else loses their job or everybody else doesn't have access

01:28:26.220 to it.

01:28:26.840 And that requires governance.

01:28:29.820 That requires like not just companies to be in charge of the regulations because companies

01:28:35.180 ultimately aren't accountable to citizens.

01:28:37.940 It means that like the states, the cities, the countries, and even in some cases, the

01:28:43.600 world needs to take some responsibility.

01:28:46.920 And Americans, you know, Chinese are really enthusiastic about what AI is going to do.

01:28:51.380 Americans are scared.

01:28:52.500 Yeah.

01:28:52.820 And the reason they're scared is because the US, they don't believe in their leaders to

01:28:58.940 take care of them.

01:29:00.940 Americans should be the ones that are most excited about the technology.

01:29:04.300 Right?

01:29:04.560 I mean, this is a frontier economy, right?

01:29:07.160 We started so much of bringing new technology and making this country incredible on the back

01:29:14.620 of that and then exporting it all over the world.

01:29:16.640 And now we have the most transformative technology that humankind has ever come close to creating.

01:29:21.960 And you're telling me that Americans are scared of it?

01:29:25.080 That is a governance issue.

01:29:26.380 That's interesting.

01:29:31.260 Unpacking that, at the core, this notion of truth and trust, governance, that's compelling.

01:29:39.800 What is less compelling to me, but seems more compelling than any other issue in America

01:29:45.020 today is an issue you just did a video on. 0.99

01:29:48.520 And that is this damn Epstein thing. 0.98

01:29:50.100 It's amazing that this is still talking about, isn't it? 0.99

01:29:54.880 It has just completely captured everyone's attention.

01:29:57.660 You presented your point of view and you wrote about and did a video saying, you know, Trump

01:30:07.040 has literally, he could not have scripted a more ineffective response.

01:30:12.900 And he, I mean, in every way, just flubbing.

01:30:14.620 I mean, what does the Epstein files represent to you?

01:30:17.960 What does it mean?

01:30:18.500 I'm just curious, what, I mean, what is it?

01:30:21.980 What is our fascination?

01:30:23.140 Why is this?

01:30:23.940 I mean, besides just the atrocities that occurred and the victims, beyond that, and God bless

01:30:30.000 on that, what is it about the Epstein files that has captured so much imagination and attention?

01:30:36.180 I mean, we talked about kleptocracy. 0.99

01:30:38.020 We talk about the capturing of the American political system by people of power.

01:30:42.100 We talk about rule of law and the two-tier system of justice. 0.99

01:30:44.660 I think that what Epstein represents to Americans are these assholes can get away with anything. 0.99

01:30:54.360 Well said. 0.99

01:30:54.640 You know, my mother used to read the Inquirer every weekend.

01:30:58.560 She didn't have a high school education.

01:30:59.880 And she wasn't, you know, she wasn't on top of all the global issues.

01:31:05.280 But she knew in her heart that these people with a lot of money and a lot of power in the United States weren't going to take care of her and her kids.

01:31:14.820 Didn't trust them.

01:31:15.800 Yeah.

01:31:15.900 And, you know, this is before algorithms, this is before the blogosphere, this is before cable news, but nonetheless, you know, and I think that what we see today with the Epstein files, after decades of Americans, wealthy Americans, just not taking enough care of their fellow citizens.

01:31:35.020 The wealthiest people in the world right now, Americans, how much do they actually care, do they feel responsibility and accountability for their fellow citizens?

01:31:46.920 Never mind the rest of the people on the planet, which I would kind of like if they'd pay attention to that too, but just their fellow citizens.

01:31:53.060 I mean, you know, Bill Gates is revered around the world for a lot of what he has done.

01:31:57.760 Elon, not so much.

01:31:59.740 Bezos, not so much.

01:32:01.660 And I think that that's a failure of the American political system.

01:32:08.160 And we see it playing out in the Epstein files right now.

01:32:11.600 And yeah, there's, of course, there's also algorithmically people focusing on one side or the other.

01:32:16.460 And Trump has flipped so much on this.

01:32:18.660 But people understand that the core, something is rotten, right, at the core of this venture.

01:32:25.680 And it's part of the reason why they think, why people think that no matter who they vote for, they can't fix this.

01:32:31.320 They can't resolve this.

01:32:33.300 And, you know, I think it's not going away.

01:32:37.200 I can't close on that.

01:32:38.760 So I want to ask you, give me why we should be optimistic in the next five to 10 years.

01:32:44.520 What gives you optimism?

01:32:46.260 I mean, you mentioned AI should give us more optimism than pessimism.

01:32:50.600 But what does, what aspects of some of these global trend lines that we opened up with give you more confidence and distill you with a bigger sense of well-being than perhaps most of us are aware of?

01:33:04.560 Look, young people are more global.

01:33:10.400 They're online a lot.

01:33:11.780 Yeah.

01:33:12.400 But they're also skeptical of what they're being fed in a healthy way.

01:33:17.360 And their friends, when I was growing up, my friends were playing stickball in the backyard.

01:33:22.540 They all grew up within three blocks.

01:33:25.420 There were some Irish, some Puerto Ricans, some Italians.

01:33:28.640 They don't want nothing else.

01:33:30.140 Kids today are, you know, playing Fortnite on Twitch with kids from South Korea and they're watching K-pop and everything else.

01:33:37.400 Or with politicians on Fortnite Friday.

01:33:39.740 Oh, were you?

01:33:40.160 Yeah, yeah.

01:33:40.820 At TwitchCon as well.

01:33:42.360 But keep going.

01:33:42.900 So these kids, they're global.

01:33:45.380 And you've done podcasts with some of them, right?

01:33:48.060 That's right.

01:33:48.460 So important.

01:33:49.980 They have far more opportunities to connect with their fellow human beings.

01:33:53.940 Why do they care more about climate than the 40, 50, 60, 70-year-olds?

01:33:57.700 Because they're the ones that are actually inheriting that world.

01:34:02.820 Why are they more skeptical of the U.S. political system?

01:34:07.120 Because they see that the 70- and 80-year-olds that are running the Republican Democratic Party won't let go.

01:34:14.440 Won't let go after well beyond they should.

01:34:17.620 And this is a huge Trump problem.

01:34:20.120 This was a huge Biden problem.

01:34:22.040 I mean, come on, people.

01:34:24.860 And I think the young people, okay, maybe they don't all believe that the way they're going to fix this is by voting.

01:34:32.580 But they're going to do something.

01:34:34.460 And, you know, they're not just going to sit.

01:34:36.400 And demographically, they're going to be in charge.

01:34:38.260 And I hope they're going to be successful.

01:34:41.100 Ian Brenner, thank you for being on our podcast.

01:34:43.600 I appreciate it.

01:34:44.240 Good to be with you.

01:34:44.840 Thank you.

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And, This Is How The World Looks At Us Under Trump W⧸ Ian Bremmer

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