This is Gavin Newsom - And, This Is How The World Looks At Us Under Trump With Ian Bremmer

00:00:00.000 The fact that Trump wants to fundamentally change the U.S. political system so there are no longer

00:00:06.820 checks and balances on his presidency. My principal enemies are inside the House. They almost tried to

00:00:13.880 kill me. It was this close. Reality has punched him in the face. I think that what Epstein

00:00:19.000 represents to Americans are these assholes can get away with anything. Coming up next on This 0.99

00:00:25.740 is Gavin Newsom. I just sat down with Ian Brenner, the founder and president of the Eurasia Group,

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00:00:53.900 This is Gavin Newsom. And this is Ian Brenner.

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00:03:43.500 Ian Brenner, it's good to be with you.

00:03:45.360 Good to be with you, Gavin.

00:03:46.080 Where were you?

00:03:46.860 We're in San Francisco.

00:03:48.040 Yes.

00:03:48.280 You made it all the way out west.

00:03:49.740 I did.

00:03:50.080 Are you a product of East Coast?

00:03:53.060 What are you doing out here?

00:03:53.940 Yeah, I grew up in Chelsea, Massachusetts, just outside Boston.

00:03:57.600 I live in New York now.

00:03:58.780 All right.

00:03:59.300 And I like it.

00:03:59.980 I do like it.

00:04:00.560 Do you like it?

00:04:01.080 You can't move me out.

00:04:01.800 Okay.

00:04:02.200 Well, I'm not trying to.

00:04:02.860 That's a good point.

00:04:03.500 We'll get to a little bit of the East Coast podcast.

00:04:05.540 I've been here for a few years.

00:04:06.420 Where were you?

00:04:07.020 Stanford.

00:04:07.660 Of course you were.

00:04:08.740 I'm sorry.

00:04:09.080 Of course you were.

00:04:09.600 Hey, they let me in.

00:04:11.020 Kids from the projects let me in at Stanford.

00:04:12.560 I'll just drop it right away.

00:04:13.420 You're at Columbia University as well.

00:04:15.380 You're all over.

00:04:15.960 But look, let's contextualize.

00:04:18.360 Because I think for me, I'd like to sort of level set about sort of in the Tom Freeman

00:04:23.800 zone of what world are we living in?

00:04:27.000 I mean, what world are we living in sort of globally?

00:04:29.460 What are the trend lines that define the world we're living in?

00:04:32.860 What's your sense of the moment we're in globally, geopolitically?

00:04:37.160 Well, the biggest thing that is so unusual in your and my histories is that the United

00:04:43.180 States, we are now driving the greatest level of geopolitical uncertainty, right?

00:04:49.880 It's not China. 0.85

00:04:51.240 It's not Europe. 0.62

00:04:52.820 Russia is certainly a problem, but comparatively small.

00:04:55.580 No, it's the question of what does the United States want?

00:04:59.560 It's whiplash from one administration to the next.

00:05:02.180 And it is absolutely an unwillingness to be the reliable partner on the set of rules that

00:05:09.100 the Americans had instituted and mostly, though not always, live by collective security,

00:05:15.720 free market trading, you know, rule of law, foreign aid.

00:05:22.160 I mean, all of these things, huge questions, and countries all over the world, especially

00:05:27.260 our allies, saying we don't believe that the United States is reliable going forward.

00:05:33.700 So the issue of reliability, so you talk and you've written a lot about this notion of

00:05:37.160 unpredictability, reliability, but never both and.

00:05:41.060 And that's the world now we're living in, this notion of being unreliable and unpredictable.

00:05:46.200 That's anomalous, even by Trump 1.0 terms?

00:05:50.040 Completely, yeah.

00:05:51.200 Yeah, I mean, they've been through Trump 1.0, and I think a lot of people assume Trump 2.0

00:05:54.800 would be the same, and they were really wrong, right?

00:05:59.140 So much more consolidated power under Trump, so much more willingness to break the furniture

00:06:06.160 on tariffs, you know, for example.

00:06:09.600 On trying to do peace deals, for example.

00:06:12.440 Just a very, very assertive, this is my opportunity.

00:06:17.880 My principal enemies are inside the house.

00:06:20.820 They almost tried to kill me.

00:06:22.920 It was this close.

00:06:24.440 And so I have to be a revolutionary president.

00:06:28.440 And you've used that word revolution.

00:06:30.680 And some people have balked at that, saying that may be overstated, though you've made the

00:06:35.200 point not dissimilar to Gorbachev himself.

00:06:37.540 Some of the revolution we saw, at least economic revolution in China, that you can certainly

00:06:42.680 make the case that Trump's policies vis-a-vis the West of the globe is revolutionary.

00:06:48.060 I think that, again, in our lifetimes, and this is why the geopolitical uncertainty from

00:06:52.900 the U.S. is so great, there have really been three attempted revolutions that have had global

00:06:59.720 impact.

00:07:00.460 The first, Deng Xiaopeng, an economic revolution, not a political revolution in China, successful

00:07:08.360 and brings China ultimately into the WTO and into the global economy.

00:07:12.660 The second, under Gorbachev, when I cut my teeth as a graduate student, my first trip

00:07:20.060 outside the U.S. was to the Soviet Union in 86 when he had first come in.

00:07:23.880 This was a political and an economic revolution, completely failed, and the Soviet Union collapsed

00:07:31.200 as a consequence.

00:07:32.580 And the third, a political, though I would argue not an economic revolution, here in the

00:07:38.120 United States by Trump, and we don't know if it's going to be successful or not.

00:07:42.880 And by the way, Steve Bannon would completely agree with that.

00:07:45.920 He wants it to be successful.

00:07:48.380 You absolutely don't.

00:07:50.540 A lot of people feel very differently.

00:07:52.300 But the fact that Trump wants to fundamentally change the U.S. political system so there are

00:07:58.980 no longer checks and balances on his presidency, either from inside the administration or from

00:08:05.820 the party or from the administrative state or from the judiciary.

00:08:12.200 I mean, these are from the media.

00:08:14.440 I mean, as we saw, you know, you and I are taping this on a day that Trump, you know, went

00:08:18.360 directly after ABC and said they should have their license taken away, didn't like a question,

00:08:23.860 tells the head of the FCC you should be looking into that right now.

00:08:26.220 That is not historically something that is compatible with the United States, but under a political

00:08:33.620 revolution, it might be.

00:08:34.560 And you say not an economic revolution, a political revolution, but you just referenced

00:08:40.460 the economic revolution in China.

00:08:42.900 Some have equated the economic policy shifts in the United States to aspects of Chinese

00:08:49.480 state capitalism.

00:08:51.080 This notion that we have seen, or not just notion, but we've seen some of the transactions

00:08:56.360 that have come with the 10 percent ownership into Intel.

00:08:59.200 Obviously, these golden shares with U.S. Steel, NVIDIA and AMD, even MP Materials here in the

00:09:04.920 state of California, disproportionate number of California-based companies, aspects, sort

00:09:09.360 of component parts of state capitalism, though have, have they not, entered into political

00:09:16.500 context?

00:09:16.900 Industrial policy.

00:09:18.180 Absolutely.

00:09:19.160 You just picked all the big ones, by the way.

00:09:21.660 So, I mean, it's not like you can say that across the U.S. economy at all.

00:09:26.400 The biggest American companies are spending lots of money on the Trump administration to

00:09:32.380 ensure that they can continue to essentially capture the regulatory environment, not the

00:09:36.460 other way around.

00:09:37.280 So my view is that there are similarities between China and the United States in the way the

00:09:43.560 economy runs.

00:09:44.220 In China, the state captures the corporations.

00:09:47.760 In the United States, the corporations capture the state, right?

00:09:50.740 Where in Europe, right, the state actually stands pretty much outside in its superpower as

00:09:57.140 a regulatory superpower, which sounds great for the social contract until you realize that

00:10:01.700 there's no growth attached to it.

00:10:02.960 Exactly.

00:10:03.280 Yeah.

00:10:03.700 So from a perspective, you know, back to sort of the alliance, there's alliances and now

00:10:10.080 this notion of predictability or unpredictability, reliability, would you describe, I mean, an

00:10:15.680 alliance first framework that sort of defines the post-World War II order, the last 75, 80

00:10:21.080 years to now an American first framework, or is it an economic first framework, or is it

00:10:27.240 just Trump an impulse in the context of what his revolutionary construct or ideological frame

00:10:34.060 represents?

00:10:34.660 Well, so one of the reasons why I don't think it's an economic revolution is because even

00:10:38.360 though Trump might be interested in some of that stuff, reality has punched him in the

00:10:43.900 face.

00:10:45.000 So, you know, for example, he tried to start a trade war with China and force them to bend 0.63

00:10:51.980 the knee.

00:10:52.380 He tried to put an effective economic boycott on the Chinese.

00:10:56.000 It didn't work.

00:10:57.460 Xi Jinping wasn't getting on the phone and jumping and saying, please, sir, can you, you

00:11:00.940 know, can you take the job?

00:11:01.700 Did that surprise you?

00:11:02.560 Did you, the extent to which China leveraged, particularly on rare earth minerals, their

00:11:07.620 strategic strengths in relationship to that?

00:11:10.520 Do you think that, I mean, was that a surprise, not only from your perspective, but do you think

00:11:14.160 that surprised the Trump administration?

00:11:15.460 Oh, it clearly surprised the Trump administration.

00:11:17.380 It, it, the part that surprised me was not the, um, the capabilities that the Chinese had

00:11:23.920 developed in critical minerals and rare earths.

00:11:26.520 They've been building these up for decades.

00:11:27.800 Um, it's very obvious that this is like a really strategic move to have that leverage.

00:11:34.020 But what surprised me, and I think surprised a lot of people in the field was the view that

00:11:39.140 their ability to suddenly actually regulate through licensing and have a scalpel that would

00:11:48.460 allow you to really hit American companies and not necessarily hit other companies.

00:11:54.180 And to be fair, like when they announced these licensing agreements, suddenly everyone is

00:11:58.960 trying to make applications to China and it's thousands of applications and they don't have

00:12:04.060 the staff to actually deal with it.

00:12:05.480 So it did cause damage.

00:12:07.600 For example, China's relations with the EU right now are markedly worse than they were a few

00:12:13.280 months ago, in part because they weren't as capable to really use this as a lever just

00:12:20.280 against the United States and just against American companies.

00:12:23.360 But their willingness to do it together with their getting up to speed really, really fast,

00:12:28.660 I think was, uh, surprised everyone to at least a degree.

00:12:33.060 And, and the fact is that the Trump administration is not prepared to have this fight with the

00:12:39.440 Chinese.

00:12:39.740 Now, what does that mean?

00:12:40.860 That in part, that means that the Americans need friends, need allies.

00:12:46.520 It turns out inflation is higher than Trump thought it was going to be.

00:12:50.200 And what does that mean?

00:12:50.800 It turns out that like a lot of those tariffs on food and on coffee and bananas, other things,

00:12:56.600 turns out, well, you got to take those off.

00:12:58.820 Turns out that Trump doesn't actually, probably doesn't have the ability to use AIPA

00:13:03.340 individually as the president, um, as everything is a national emergency,

00:13:09.240 no matter what country, no matter how poor, how rich, how small, how big, and that the

00:13:14.340 Supreme court, at least the initial arguments look like that's going to hit him back pretty

00:13:17.780 hard.

00:13:18.380 All of that implies that Trump's, he may have a, an, an idea, grand, grand idea that I'm

00:13:25.680 the biggest actor out there.

00:13:26.940 And therefore the law, the jungle, I'm the predator.

00:13:29.500 And so as the apex predator, everyone has to bow to me, but you know, even the apex predator,

00:13:35.460 like picks off like a wounded wildebeest, but doesn't go after the entire herd simultaneously.

00:13:41.560 Turns out it's not really working for him.

00:13:43.560 So I, I think that in the past few weeks, we've actually passed the tipping point where

00:13:51.080 Trump's global unilateralism is really getting constrained.

00:13:55.240 Sort of piqued Trump in that way.

00:13:56.580 And AIPA is the international economic emergency powers act of which Trump has asserted, it's

00:14:02.020 being litigated in the Supreme court that he has the unilateral authority without congressional

00:14:06.380 approval to move forward with these tariffs.

00:14:09.060 But even of course, if the Supreme court adjudicates against that authority, he still substantially

00:14:16.340 can find other avenues to advance the tariff.

00:14:18.940 But it would take time and expectations for where the global blended tariff act is.

00:14:25.240 Our average from the United States would be, would probably be three to six points lower

00:14:29.380 than they presently are.

00:14:30.200 Which is roughly, what is it, 17?

00:14:31.800 And it depends on the day of the weeks.

00:14:33.220 It depends on whether you're saying what he has or what they're actually implementing,

00:14:36.620 but something between 13 and 17, yeah.

00:14:38.360 And it's the highest since the 1930s.

00:14:40.280 Without any question.

00:14:41.340 And that's the single biggest thing he's done on the global stage so far.

00:14:44.100 So, and it seems to me that's the entire policy.

00:14:48.680 I mean, every single thing is leveraged.

00:14:51.220 Every conversation is leveraged in the context of that cudgel, isn't it?

00:14:55.360 The tariff cudgel with him.

00:14:57.700 I mean, the Russia, Ukraine thing, clearly it's whether or not you remember when the Ukrainians,

00:15:02.480 when Zelensky came to the Oval, that horrible shambolic meeting, and he cut off intelligence

00:15:07.840 and defense support for a week or two.

00:15:10.880 That wasn't trade, but my God, that was important.

00:15:13.040 Sent a big message to the Europeans. 0.99

00:15:14.440 They're similar in terms of the Abraham Accords and the F-35s.

00:15:19.920 So, American military capabilities also have, I would say that's another significant piece

00:15:25.360 of leverage.

00:15:25.520 So, let's reinforce that in the context of the meeting that the president just had in

00:15:31.940 the Oval Office of the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, talking about transactions around F-35s,

00:15:38.960 talking about potentially, well, apparently they didn't talk about the Abraham Accords,

00:15:42.780 but the prospect, they did a bit to pull, potentially to get Saudi Arabia as part of that.

00:15:48.180 So, give me your over-under in terms of that relationship, which is, to me, fascinating,

00:15:52.560 also deeply predictable, because there's sort of a crony component of that as well.

00:15:58.540 There's a little bit of self-dealing that seems to attach itself, respectfully, from

00:16:02.000 my perspective, to all things Saudi Arabia and the Trump and Trump family.

00:16:05.880 But how did you perceive that meeting, the importance of it, a little bit of the controversy

00:16:11.340 around it, particularly in relationship to the murder in a Washington Post reporter?

00:16:16.480 What was your sense of that?

00:16:18.640 Well, there's so much to unpack here.

00:16:21.220 Saudi Arabia today, over 30 million population in the region, is transforming itself in ways

00:16:29.600 that if you haven't traveled to the kingdom recently, is shocking.

00:16:33.620 Yeah.

00:16:33.760 In a positive way, mostly.

00:16:36.060 In an incredibly positive way.

00:16:37.640 That this, Mohammed bin Salman, if there were elections in Saudi Arabia, would almost

00:16:41.200 certainly win 80, 85, 90% of the votes.

00:16:45.980 He is, women were 11% of the workforce 10 years ago. 0.96

00:16:52.840 They're now 36%.

00:16:54.160 Yeah.

00:16:54.600 In 10 years.

00:16:55.540 Yeah.

00:16:55.680 It's like a reverse Iranian revolution, right? 0.93

00:16:58.360 They're diversifying the economy, you know, so it's not just, you know, oil and petrochem.

00:17:04.920 It's actually meant to, and it's technology, and it's tourism, and it's sports, and it's

00:17:09.860 health, and it's all of these things.

00:17:11.220 It's comedy.

00:17:12.200 They even did that comedy festival recently.

00:17:14.540 Absolutely.

00:17:14.900 And so, you know, you go and you see that suddenly, like, men and women are actually

00:17:20.220 able to talk to each other, and I remember the first time I went to Saudi Arabia, local

00:17:24.820 men referred to women as MBOs, moving black objects, because they were completely covered 0.99

00:17:31.120 by the niqab, and you couldn't see them aside from this little slit, you know, with their 1.00

00:17:36.460 eyes.

00:17:36.920 And they certainly weren't playing any role in terms of social, public culture.

00:17:42.200 That has completely changed.

00:17:44.400 There are no religious police on the streets anymore.

00:17:47.640 All of that is extraordinary.

00:17:49.380 So any country in the world, not just the United States, that is thinking about what

00:17:54.980 are the future-oriented governments that you should be engaging with, Saudi would be on

00:18:02.340 your list.

00:18:03.760 Having said that, the Khashoggi assassination, which the CIA said-

00:18:11.720 Under Trump.

00:18:12.640 Under Trump, said Mohammed bin Salman was directly aware of, right?

00:18:18.400 And then so suddenly today, and no one is, you know, Khashoggi is no longer a thing, in

00:18:23.900 the sense that it was many years ago.

00:18:25.960 You got Davos in the desert, all of the global, the bankers, the industry leaders from the U.S.,

00:18:30.640 other countries, they're all going.

00:18:32.440 It's not like the Saudis are suddenly a pariah state.

00:18:36.220 Not at all.

00:18:37.320 And I think Biden made mistakes on that, frankly, not reading the room.

00:18:41.300 But for Trump to then take a question and pretend that not only did this incident not happen,

00:18:49.120 to whitewash it and say, well, Mohammed bin Salman, he knew nothing about that.

00:18:53.860 To say that, well, this guy Khashoggi was a bad guy. 0.81

00:18:56.820 Like, you don't need to do any of that.

00:19:00.280 And yet it's almost like he takes pleasure in the opportunity in undermining the values

00:19:10.000 that the United States has at least tried to stand for, for much of its recent history.

00:19:16.660 Net net positive.

00:19:18.040 So what you're saying, net net positive.

00:19:19.900 I mean, and he was treated like a head of state, even though it's technically not the

00:19:24.180 head of state.

00:19:24.960 Yeah, they're still a king.

00:19:26.140 Yeah.

00:19:26.440 But is it related?

00:19:27.400 So it gives us opportunity just maybe then to get into the Middle East and the Middle East

00:19:31.120 politics a little bit.

00:19:32.420 The Abraham Accords were a big success for the Trump administration 1.0.

00:19:36.000 Arguably his largest success.

00:19:37.720 Largest success.

00:19:38.260 And what I love about you, you call balls and strikes.

00:19:41.200 You're nonpartisan.

00:19:42.140 And you're able to assess things without a deeply political lens, which I think is critical

00:19:46.520 and important.

00:19:47.000 I think it's important for us to acknowledge that, particularly folks in my party.

00:19:51.420 But as it relates to where we are today and the ability to build on that success and the

00:19:56.240 relationship to this, quote unquote, Middle East peace deal, the most significant, you

00:20:00.100 know, Trump sort of triumph and the challenges that persist in Gaza, Hamas, who appears not

00:20:05.500 to have any interest in, you know, eliminating or at least setting down their arms, the challenges

00:20:12.480 with the next phase of the next phase of that peace deal, the importance of Saudi Arabia recognizing

00:20:17.540 Israel, but first Israel recognizing a Palestinian state.

00:20:21.820 How do you feel the state of the Middle East is today?

00:20:24.680 Well, so first, balls and strikes.

00:20:26.720 Let's give Trump credit where credit is due.

00:20:28.760 Nobody thought that Hamas was going to actually release all of the living Israeli hostages.

00:20:37.920 And they did.

00:20:38.860 Yeah.

00:20:39.200 With Trump pressure.

00:20:40.660 And it was at the United Nations General Assembly.

00:20:43.800 And I remember when he stood up and the speech was way too long, almost an hour.

00:20:47.540 And there were only two applause lines.

00:20:49.040 One, when he finally finished.

00:20:50.080 And, and the other, when he said, you want to end the war, Hamas has to let the hostages 0.96

00:20:55.860 go.

00:20:56.140 And everyone, almost everyone in the room applauded that.

00:20:58.980 And so, but no one thought it was going to get done.

00:21:01.400 He got it done.

00:21:02.400 He got it done by also orchestrating a summit on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.

00:21:08.000 And you, you were there in New York with me as well, with all of the leaders from the

00:21:13.280 region, not the Israelis saying, here's the 20 or 21 point plan, depending on who you

00:21:18.060 talked to, that they then mostly got agreement on.

00:21:23.000 And recently they just got it passed by the Security Council.

00:21:25.600 Which is remarkable.

00:21:26.260 Which is remarkable.

00:21:27.160 The Russians and the Chinese abstained.

00:21:28.800 And, and everyone else was a little bit, they, they, they were a little bit on the,

00:21:32.960 on the sidelines.

00:21:33.500 They were chippy. 0.99

00:21:34.220 They were chippy. 0.99

00:21:35.040 That's the right word.

00:21:35.920 Chippy.

00:21:36.020 Yeah.

00:21:36.380 I like that.

00:21:37.140 No, but that was another remarkable accomplishment.

00:21:38.780 To go from a position where the United States had been almost isolated completely on the

00:21:44.320 global stage and its support to Israel, to having the U.S. lead diplomacy with the Security

00:21:50.720 Council voting in favor and only two abstentions from American adversaries.

00:21:54.340 That's an extraordinary win.

00:21:55.740 Yep.

00:21:56.120 Give him credit.

00:21:56.620 When Trump went to the Knesset and gave that speech, he was a hell of a lot more popular

00:22:00.560 there than Prime Minister Netanyahu is.

00:22:03.380 Right.

00:22:04.120 Clearly.

00:22:04.760 So that's the, that's the positive.

00:22:06.940 Yeah.

00:22:07.040 Negative is getting this deal from ceasefire to a Palestinian state is really, really not

00:22:15.900 looking very likely right now.

00:22:17.380 And that's why the Saudis were not prepared to show any leg on the Abraham Accords. 0.87

00:22:25.220 And when I was in Riyadh, same thing.

00:22:27.000 They're like, yeah, yeah, we're, we're, we're very happy.

00:22:28.700 We'd like to do it.

00:22:29.600 We'd like to engage.

00:22:30.520 We'd like the technology, all that stuff.

00:22:32.340 Right.

00:22:32.740 But not until we see a clear pathway to a Palestinian state.

00:22:35.740 And right now with this leadership in Israel, it is not happening.

00:22:39.780 So you saw Trump just brought the Kazakhs into the Abraham Accords. 0.91

00:22:43.500 You see that?

00:22:43.960 I saw that.

00:22:44.420 A week ago.

00:22:45.020 They're not even, it was an unrelated party.

00:22:48.160 Well.

00:22:48.380 But it was just to show momentum.

00:22:49.680 They already had relations with Israel for like decades.

00:22:53.960 Yeah.

00:22:54.180 It's like when Trump announced that he ended the Azeri-Armenia War, which is great because 0.98

00:22:58.140 they weren't actually fighting.

00:22:59.200 We're going to get to his Nobel Prize and the 10 peace deals.

00:23:01.680 I know, I know.

00:23:02.980 But, but the point is, the Abraham Accords are not going to include the Saudis.

00:23:05.660 That's for the foreseeable future.

00:23:06.600 For the foreseeable future.

00:23:07.920 Where are we, what's your over-under?

00:23:09.660 And I've been reading some of the things you put out.

00:23:12.340 How concerned are you about Hezbollah in Lebanon?

00:23:15.480 How concerned are you about what's happening in Beirut or not happening?

00:23:19.600 Where do you think, see things going in the short term?

00:23:21.780 Well, the Lebanese government, after the ceasefire, said that they were going to work

00:23:26.640 to ensure that the heavy weaponry that Hezbollah had in the south of the country near the Israeli 0.91

00:23:33.300 border, they were going to destroy that critical infrastructure and make sure that those weapons

00:23:37.740 weren't there.

00:23:38.060 They've done none of that.

00:23:39.160 But a couple of cases, a couple of cases where U.S. has intelligence, provides the Lebanese 0.96

00:23:43.460 government, they respond to that.

00:23:46.460 But this has not been proactive.

00:23:48.500 Nobody thinks they're going to actually get this done.

00:23:51.020 And that means that Israel is going to start mowing the grass again. 0.88

00:23:54.300 And that means more strikes by the Israelis.

00:23:57.040 I do.

00:23:57.280 I expect it.

00:23:58.000 Now, whether or not that is limited strikes, drones, missiles, aircraft just across the border,

00:24:06.620 or whether that includes special forces insertion in Beirut, there's a big, big difference between

00:24:13.800 those two things.

00:24:14.680 Either could happen.

00:24:15.800 But I'd be stunned if we have this staying quiescent over the coming months.

00:24:23.460 Tony Blair heading this effort.

00:24:26.980 In Gaza.

00:24:27.440 In Gaza.

00:24:28.900 What's your over-under on success in that respect?

00:24:31.580 I mean, the idea if Hamas is not going to put down their arms of an international security

00:24:37.260 force coming in, armed security force, seems less likely under those circumstances, or am

00:24:45.320 I off?

00:24:46.040 Less likely, but also everyone that's been traveling to this coordination center that they've

00:24:53.800 set up just on the Israeli side of the Gaza border.

00:24:57.900 And it has like one floor with the Israelis, one floor with the Americans, then one floor 0.98

00:25:01.620 with the multinationals.

00:25:02.760 And apparently, first of all, much bigger, much more capable than people think.

00:25:06.860 The U.S. much more directly involved now in terms of ensuring that humanitarian aid is

00:25:11.520 getting in.

00:25:12.500 The Israelis are in some of the meetings.

00:25:13.900 They're not in all of the meetings.

00:25:15.460 So there is an effort to really have people that are capable of moving the ball.

00:25:20.860 And also, as the administration has called it, babysitting.

00:25:24.440 So senior officials that are constraining him so that he can't destroy the progress in the

00:25:30.860 process.

00:25:31.200 Now, also, Tony Blair, a controversial figure, but is well-regarded, well-respected in the

00:25:39.060 Gulf.

00:25:39.880 He brings far more political influence and leadership to a Gaza role than anyone else

00:25:44.860 plausible.

00:25:45.860 Interestingly, the Jordanians have been really opposed to him.

00:25:51.180 And I haven't been able to figure out why.

00:25:53.160 No history when he was prime minister and with a king?

00:25:55.900 With Iraq a little bit, sure. 0.99

00:25:57.980 Of course.

00:25:58.640 But still surprising to me.

00:26:01.820 I mean, it might be that Abu Mazen is opposed to it and has used the Jordanians to say, hey,

00:26:05.820 you know, sort of he's going to be tough on us.

00:26:07.860 I'm not sure.

00:26:08.740 But I think that everyone would be fortunate to have Blair in this role, frankly.

00:26:13.580 Was it was your perspective was the right thing to do to go in and go after those nuclear 0.93

00:26:18.500 facilities of the United States and those strikes?

00:26:21.360 Well, they worked, right?

00:26:23.500 I mean, you know, you're talking about intelligence estimates or you probably delayed the Iranian

00:26:30.860 program by some 12 to 18 months.

00:26:34.180 And the Iranians were incapable of any response, marshalling any response to Israel or the United 0.96

00:26:40.680 States.

00:26:41.020 Most of it was done by the Israelis.

00:26:43.420 The Americans saw that that was successful and nothing happening.

00:26:45.840 Trump wanted to get in.

00:26:47.640 But then the war was over in short order and no American boots on the ground.

00:26:51.840 So look, on balance with an Iranian government member, Trump had Bibi in the Oval Office. 0.91

00:26:58.940 And while he was there, announced, I'm going to start engaging with the Iranians.

00:27:03.420 I want to see if we can get to a diplomatic deal.

00:27:06.620 And there was some effort and the Iranians weren't really willing to go there.

00:27:13.320 So ultimately, that meant, I mean, this is not like the Gaza situation, certainly not like

00:27:18.440 Qatar, where, you know, the Israelis made strikes.

00:27:21.440 The Americans weren't happy about it.

00:27:22.600 In the case of Iran, the United States was pretty much on board with, OK, we're going to 1.00

00:27:27.040 let you guys have at it.

00:27:29.700 Let's go back to China. 0.86

00:27:31.420 It's interesting to me, just with a weaker economy, we talked a little bit.

00:27:34.640 I mean, this notion that they were able to flex with a little more precision and push

00:27:39.060 Trump back, though we still have outrageously high tariffs.

00:27:43.540 And that's going to impact, or it's already impacting prices, as you suggest.

00:27:47.840 But particularly this Christmas, where I think 80% of our toys come from China, et cetera.

00:27:52.260 So we're going to feel those impacts.

00:27:53.760 And they're starting to actually make, I mean, people are starting to absorb.

00:27:57.040 The realities of these tariffs, in a way, those first few months, they appeared not to be.

00:28:01.600 And so there's back to this notion that certain realities are hitting Trump in the face in

00:28:06.000 terms of how he positions.

00:28:07.820 A decade ago, I was on the trail of one of the country's most elusive serial killers.

00:28:12.640 But it wasn't until 2023 when he was finally caught.

00:28:16.320 The answers were there, hidden in plain sight.

00:28:19.060 So why did it take so long to catch him?

00:28:21.100 I'm Josh Zeman, and this is Monster, hunting the Long Island serial killer.

00:28:25.620 The investigation into the most notorious killer in New York since The Son of Sam.

00:28:30.320 Available now.

00:28:31.300 Listen for free on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

00:28:36.340 Hey there, Dr. Jesse Mills here.

00:28:39.720 I'm the director of the men's clinic at UCLA Health.

00:28:42.180 And I want to tell you about my new podcast called The Mailroom.

00:28:45.340 And I'm Jordan, the show's producer.

00:28:47.200 And like a lot of guys, I haven't been to the doctor in many years.

00:28:51.320 I'll be asking the questions we probably should be asking, but aren't.

00:28:54.760 Because guys usually don't go to the doctor unless a piece of their face is hanging off or

00:28:58.420 they've broken a bone.

00:28:59.780 Depends which bone.

00:29:01.100 Well, that's true.

00:29:01.880 Every week, we're breaking down the unique world of men's health, from testosterone and 0.99

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00:29:12.480 Yeah, something like that, Jordan.

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00:29:23.880 Men's Health is about more than six packs and supplements.

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00:29:33.240 So check out the mailroom on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your

00:29:37.780 favorite shows.

00:29:39.700 On this week's episode of the next chapter, I, D.D. Jakes, get to sit down with Oprah Winfrey,

00:29:46.940 a media mogul, philanthropist, and global trailblazer.

00:29:52.040 My life, although it may look like an anomaly, it has only been possible because I was obedient

00:29:59.620 to the call.

00:30:01.120 This episode dives deep into how Oprah turned pain into purpose and what it really means

00:30:07.880 to evolve with everybody watching.

00:30:10.380 Every decision I have ever made has come from sitting with the Spirit and asking God,

00:30:18.000 what would you have me do first?

00:30:20.500 Whether you're rebuilding, reimagining, or just trying to hold it together, this one

00:30:27.220 will speak directly to you.

00:30:30.460 Listen to the next chapter on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your

00:30:36.340 podcast episodes drop weekly.

00:30:39.640 On the podcast Health Stuff, we are tackling all the health questions that keep you up

00:30:44.820 at night.

00:30:45.360 Yes, I'm Dr. Priyanka Wally, a double board certified physician.

00:30:49.540 And I'm Hari Kondabolu, a comedian and someone who once Googled, do I have scurvy at 3 a.m.

00:30:54.900 On Health Stuff, we're talking about health in a different way.

00:30:58.520 It's not only about what we can do to improve our health.

00:31:01.080 But also what our health says about us and the way we're living.

00:31:04.620 Like our episode where we look at diabetes.

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00:31:12.120 How preventable is type 2?

00:31:15.020 Extremely.

00:31:16.100 Or our in-depth analysis of how incredible mangoes are.

00:31:21.280 Oh, it's hard to explain to the rest of the world that like your mangoes are fine because

00:31:26.240 mangoes are incredible, but like you don't even know.

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00:31:32.240 It's going to be a fun ride.

00:31:33.980 So tune in.

00:31:34.780 Listen to Health Stuff on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.

00:31:41.640 The Big Take podcast from Bloomberg News dives deep into one big global business story every

00:31:47.480 weekday.

00:31:48.300 A shutdown means we don't get the data, but it also means for President Trump that there's

00:31:52.820 no chance of bad news on the labor market.

00:31:56.320 What does a bacon, egg and cheese sandwich reveal about the economy?

00:31:59.220 Our breakfast foods are consistent consumer staples, and so they sort of become outsized

00:32:04.980 indicators of inflation.

00:32:07.180 What's behind Elon Musk's trillion dollar payout?

00:32:10.440 There's a sort of concerted effort to message that Musk is coming back.

00:32:15.400 He's putting politics aside.

00:32:16.940 He's left the White House.

00:32:18.560 And what can the PCE tell you that the CPI can't?

00:32:22.000 CPI tries to measure out-of-pocket costs that consumers are paying for things, whereas

00:32:28.320 the PCE index that the Fed targets is a little bit broader of a measure.

00:32:33.440 Listen to The Big Take from Bloomberg News every weekday afternoon on the iHeartRadio app,

00:32:38.200 Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.

00:32:40.600 But give me a sense, you know, the Biden years vis-a-vis China, how Trump is posturing that

00:32:50.120 relationship with Xi, where do you see things going, even beyond the situational politics

00:32:54.860 today around the immediate, you know, sort of decompressing a little bit of that stress

00:33:01.140 after that APEC meeting?

00:33:03.160 Where do you see things going with China in the next two, five years?

00:33:07.280 The Chinese are very confident right now.

00:33:11.320 They believe that the United States, as a country that is less reliable, is creating

00:33:18.140 big opportunities for China long-term.

00:33:21.380 U.S. shuts down USAID.

00:33:23.720 Who's going to be the principal on the ground in the global south?

00:33:26.740 Going to be the Chinese. 1.00

00:33:27.940 U.S. doesn't show up at the COP summit that you just went to in Brazil.

00:33:31.180 Who's driving technology at scale for post-carbon energy?

00:33:36.460 The Chinese. 0.54

00:33:37.280 The Americans are scaring off brown people that might want visas to get top higher education 0.94

00:33:44.520 in the United States.

00:33:45.440 Who's now trying to make visas easier for people to come in?

00:33:49.300 The Chinese. 0.54

00:33:50.060 So long-term, Xi Jinping is going to be there in all likelihood a lot longer than Trump is.

00:33:55.380 He believes this is an opportunity.

00:33:57.740 I would argue he is also overplaying his hand.

00:34:01.260 Xi.

00:34:01.920 Xi is.

00:34:02.840 Yeah.

00:34:03.100 In which respect or what respect?

00:34:04.620 That when he decided to put that loaded gun on the table that said, here is what I can

00:34:11.240 do in weaponizing these critical minerals that are utterly essential for everybody in

00:34:16.940 the advanced industrial economies.

00:34:18.780 Suddenly you have Europeans, Japanese, South Koreans, Australians, Canadians saying, okay, 0.95

00:34:24.260 we can't rely on the United States.

00:34:25.720 But these guys are actually a fundamental national security problem right now.

00:34:30.200 And we've got to find a way to work together, all of us, so that we have alternatives.

00:34:36.200 In the same way that the Europeans had their eye off the ball on energy and allowed themselves 0.93

00:34:43.280 to be dependent on Russia, really bad idea for decades.

00:34:47.180 In the same way that the Americans did that with semiconductors and TSMC right off of the

00:34:52.540 Chinese coast, really bad idea for decades.

00:34:56.180 All of us have done this on critical minerals and rare arts.

00:35:01.020 So, yeah, I think if you're China, you should have just, you know, as they say, you know, 1.00

00:35:07.260 the Sun Tzu, right?

00:35:09.000 When your enemy is making a mistake, let them and don't intervene.

00:35:14.320 And I think that the Chinese actually sort of have played a little too aggressively recently.

00:35:20.380 The new prime minister of Japan said she would intervene on behalf of Taiwan.

00:35:25.360 If they were attacked.

00:35:26.120 If they were attacked.

00:35:27.140 The United States is, I mean, Biden administration seemed to have multiple positions on this.

00:35:33.220 And I don't mean that as an indictment, but this notion of ambiguity, I think, was part

00:35:37.160 of a little bit of the strategy.

00:35:38.460 It didn't help that Nancy Pelosi also decided to go play by herself under the Biden administration. 1.00

00:35:43.000 And there was, there was some friction.

00:35:44.600 And certainly there, what's the over under on China moving on Taiwan in the next decade?

00:35:54.580 Oh, decade is a long time, right?

00:35:56.580 I mean, in the next, over the course of the Trump administration, I would say actually quite

00:36:01.660 low.

00:36:02.180 Low.

00:36:03.020 And why would you say under the course of the, is that just because of years or because

00:36:06.720 of policy with Trump?

00:36:08.040 I think it's both.

00:36:09.100 It's in part because the Chinese don't yet have the military capabilities in place.

00:36:14.380 And you see every month there's a new corruption scandal that's hitting the inside, the top

00:36:19.440 levels of the Chinese military.

00:36:20.760 So how much would she want to rely on that to ensure with a military that hasn't been used 0.92

00:36:27.240 in, you know, sort of battle conditions the way like the Russians have, for example, and

00:36:31.960 learn some things maybe they didn't want to learn at the beginning of that war.

00:36:35.260 But then you also have the fact that the Chinese see that Trump isn't looking for a trade war,

00:36:41.420 like recognizes that he needs to bend the knee, that he needs to find a way not to cause

00:36:47.400 problems for China.

00:36:48.480 There is a mutually assured economic destruction between the two countries for now, at least,

00:36:52.780 even if the long-term path is towards decoupling.

00:36:55.720 And, you know, going to war against Taiwan, even if Trump's instinct, his impulse would

00:37:05.380 be, that's pretty far away, not really my problem.

00:37:08.920 But the Japanese, the South Koreans, the Australians wouldn't feel that way.

00:37:12.200 And the Americans are very much on the ground there and intelligence sharing and troops and

00:37:16.280 all the rest would be, it'd be hard for the Americans to actually steer clear of that.

00:37:21.380 And I don't see Xi Jinping as wanting to take that risk, similar to the economy.

00:37:26.500 You know, the Chinese economy is not performing that well right now.

00:37:29.560 He's not ready to launch the big bazooka at domestic stimulus.

00:37:34.160 He's not suddenly going to take all of the provincial debt and take it on at the federal

00:37:39.260 level because he doesn't need to.

00:37:41.460 Because Xi Jinping is thinking about 10 years down the line, as you suggested, 20 years down

00:37:45.900 the line, and the fact that, like, he can wait, he is patient, he is more risk averse.

00:37:52.940 He's being quite cautious about some of these bigger long-term strategic issues, specifically

00:37:58.000 like Taiwan.

00:37:59.240 Is the policy of the United States decoupling or is it de-risking?

00:38:03.960 I think it is long-term, it's decoupling.

00:38:07.300 And that's an aggressive thing to say.

00:38:08.760 But, you know, when I think about the commanding heights of the global economy over the next

00:38:15.640 five years, we're talking about AI and advanced technologies.

00:38:18.940 And these are places where what the Americans are doing and what the Chinese are doing are 0.76

00:38:22.740 completely separate sets of investments.

00:38:26.460 They're not interoperable.

00:38:28.000 We're taking our researchers out of each other's programs.

00:38:31.100 We're not collaborating.

00:38:32.600 We're not communicating.

00:38:34.080 We're doing completely different things.

00:38:35.720 And so, you know, we're going to other countries and we're saying, it's not just about, if we

00:38:41.940 want to talk about US-China, we have to talk about American diplomacy with third parties and

00:38:47.720 say, well, we're pressuring the Mexicans to ensure there are no transshipments of Chinese 0.99

00:38:52.000 goods through Mexico into the United States.

00:38:54.240 We're pressuring the Netherlands to make sure that they're not actually, you know, sort of

00:38:57.860 selling software design or semiconductors into China.

00:39:01.680 We're working on all of these countries to build alternate supply chains so that we don't

00:39:07.120 rely on the Chinese. 1.00

00:39:08.080 That's not de-risking.

00:39:09.560 That's decoupling.

00:39:10.820 That's where the Americans are going long term.

00:39:12.840 But there's a recognition that for the next one, two, three years, you can't actually get

00:39:18.260 that done.

00:39:18.800 You can't execute on that strategy near term.

00:39:22.120 You mentioned Mexico.

00:39:23.960 We can sort of connect the dot up to Canada.

00:39:27.180 What is the Trump administration's bone to pick with Canada?

00:39:32.420 What's the origin story?

00:39:33.720 Was it personality with Trudeau?

00:39:36.400 I mean, was it just, again, back to impulse?

00:39:39.600 Or is there a strategy?

00:39:42.540 I mean, this issue of sovereignty, Denmark, we've written about, I mean, we were down in

00:39:48.100 Panama for a while.

00:39:49.160 We'll get to Venezuela perhaps in a moment with Maduro.

00:39:52.060 But what is the bone to pick with Canada?

00:39:54.940 Is there a strategy here?

00:39:56.280 Is there a rationale?

00:39:57.560 Well, given that the U.S.-Mexico-Canada agreement was, again, after the Abraham Accords, arguably

00:40:04.620 the second biggest win of the first Trump administration.

00:40:07.520 Trump's own negotiated agreement.

00:40:08.760 Trump's own negotiated agreement.

00:40:10.340 Yes.

00:40:10.520 And that's why I say the second Trump term is so different from the first.

00:40:14.440 It's much more like I'm much more powerful and I am in a position where I can force you

00:40:21.080 to accept asymmetric negotiations that benefit me to a greater degree.

00:40:26.960 And, you know, yes, at the beginning, of course, it was Justin Trudeau and the fact that he

00:40:33.840 really disliked him personally.

00:40:36.400 And so when he came down to Mar-a-Lago and Trump had him surrounded at that table and he

00:40:41.660 started talking, it was Governor Trudeau.

00:40:43.780 And you'll remember that there were like, you know, hockey matches and the rest where

00:40:48.320 they were booing the American national anthem.

00:40:50.940 All of the countries, I mean, when I mentioned that the Americans are perceived as unreliable,

00:40:56.120 but there are a whole bunch of countries that are still trying to find more effective

00:41:01.440 ways of, can't we just get along?

00:41:04.100 Can't we not have a crisis?

00:41:06.000 Canada, because they know the Americans so well, they are so angry.

00:41:11.020 Yeah.

00:41:11.240 You look at how few Canadians are traveling to the U.S.

00:41:14.780 We rely on 1.9 million a year just in the state of California.

00:41:17.940 It's just, it's collapsed.

00:41:19.240 It's staunch.

00:41:19.860 Absolutely collapsed.

00:41:20.560 The economic damage, the self-harm we've done is off the charts.

00:41:23.740 That's a side, but you're right.

00:41:24.980 It's interesting.

00:41:25.720 For the Canadians, it's raw.

00:41:27.240 It's raw.

00:41:27.820 Yeah.

00:41:28.160 Yeah.

00:41:28.460 I talked to hotel owners in Boston, New England, that kind of stuff. 1.00

00:41:31.020 Also, Canadian tourism has just fallen off a fucking cliff. 0.99

00:41:34.500 Yeah. 0.99

00:41:34.800 And so there's a huge amount of self-harm in a country that really integrates, trusts the

00:41:40.200 Americans, right?

00:41:41.140 I mean, they're very similar people.

00:41:44.500 And remember, Mark Carney won because of Trump.

00:41:49.100 Period.

00:41:49.340 I mean, he was not in there with the fighting chants otherwise.

00:41:52.920 It was going to be-

00:41:53.420 And we'll get to Lulu and we'll get to all these others that are beneficiaries of Trump's

00:41:56.520 policies.

00:41:57.080 Yeah.

00:41:57.540 Australia, same thing happened.

00:41:58.860 It's interesting.

00:41:59.500 That's a good point.

00:42:00.100 A number of elections that Trump actually pushed in the other direction.

00:42:03.700 What's it?

00:42:04.160 The president of Mexico's played it from her perspective, Mexican perspective, well.

00:42:11.900 I would say so.

00:42:12.800 I think she's been one of the-

00:42:13.540 Sometimes a little frustrating for other trading partners or relationships, i.e. California and

00:42:19.020 others.

00:42:19.220 But she's got a lot more to lose, no?

00:42:22.120 Yes.

00:42:23.520 She's figured out how to play Trump a little bit differently than a lot of leaders, no?

00:42:30.760 Yeah.

00:42:31.200 I think that what's interesting, you're talking about a PhD woman, environmental scientist, 0.94

00:42:38.160 Berkeley grad.

00:42:38.740 I mean, if she had been black and lesbian, I mean, you can't find me a demographic that's

00:42:46.080 going to be more challenging for Trump to actually deal with, right?

00:42:49.620 And yet, she's talked with him frequently on the phone.

00:42:55.840 She has engaged.

00:42:57.240 She stands up for herself and her country on the issues that are utterly critical.

00:43:02.140 Like, for example, you can't send the military indirectly.

00:43:05.120 You can't send drones indirectly.

00:43:06.680 We'll cooperate with you.

00:43:08.080 But, you know, our sovereignty is utterly sacrosanct.

00:43:11.680 But she's given on border security, which has made Trump look good.

00:43:16.320 He's much more popular on that than he is on the economy right now.

00:43:19.080 She has given on trying to get China out of their economy, which, frankly, the Chinese 1.00

00:43:25.500 investments in Mexico haven't been that popular.

00:43:28.040 I mean, they're not manufacturing cars.

00:43:30.060 They're assembling.

00:43:30.600 There aren't many good jobs around that.

00:43:32.320 They're sending in a whole bunch of cheap textiles.

00:43:34.520 A lot of Mexican small and medium producers are losing their jobs.

00:43:38.660 So, I mean, there's alignment on a lot of stuff.

00:43:43.020 They had their absolutely biggest fentanyl bust in Mexico under Sheinbaum for Trump.

00:43:50.580 They weren't doing that under Biden.

00:43:52.200 And, by the way, I just heard from her cabinet just last week that the bust in Nogales, I guess it was, with the United States actually grabbing all of these rifles, heavy rifles.

00:44:07.600 Right.

00:44:07.820 They were going south.

00:44:08.700 They were going south, was the single biggest seizure that has happened from the United States to Mexico.

00:44:16.140 Deserved a lot more attention.

00:44:17.200 But in Mexico, got a lot of attention.

00:44:18.540 Yeah, it's interesting.

00:44:19.440 So, we've been working, our own state National Guard has been working, I've deployed them to the border on precisely those operations, working in partnership with the National Guard in Mexico, which we have a formal relationship.

00:44:31.060 So, I applaud that effort.

00:44:33.520 That was significant.

00:44:34.820 And that's a good proof point of that relationship.

00:44:37.760 When we look more now.

00:44:39.220 But, of course, they are deeply worried about, like, you know, what happens with trade between the U.S. and Mexico.

00:44:43.920 It's the end of the day.

00:44:44.760 As much as she's trying to manage it and she's doing a good job, they are deeply uncomfortable with the Americans saying, hey, USMCA, don't care what that says.

00:44:54.020 We're actually going to rip that off and we're going to hit you hard unless you improve trade terms with us.

00:44:59.780 Yeah.

00:44:59.880 That worries them a lot.

00:45:01.060 Because, I mean, they are, you know, a much smaller economy and they are overwhelmingly reliant on the U.S.

00:45:06.660 Exactly right.

00:45:07.620 A decade ago, I was on the trail of one of the country's most elusive serial killers.

00:45:12.440 But it wasn't until 2023 when he was finally caught.

00:45:16.280 The answers were there, hidden in plain sight.

00:45:19.020 So, why did it take so long to catch him?

00:45:21.420 I'm Josh Zeman and this is Monster, hunting the Long Island serial killer.

00:45:25.260 The investigation into the most notorious killer in New York since The Son of Sam.

00:45:29.920 Available now.

00:45:31.220 Listen for free on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your podcasts.

00:45:36.300 Hey there, Dr. Jesse Mills here.

00:45:39.640 I'm the director of the men's clinic at UCLA Health.

00:45:42.120 And I want to tell you about my new podcast called The Mailroom.

00:45:45.300 And I'm Jordan, the show's producer.

00:45:47.080 And like a lot of guys, I haven't been to the doctor in many years.

00:45:51.240 I'll be asking the questions we probably should be asking, but aren't.

00:45:54.460 Because guys usually don't go to the doctor unless a piece of their face is hanging off or they've broken a bone.

00:45:59.720 Depends which bone.

00:46:01.060 Well, that's true.

00:46:02.280 Every week, we're breaking down the unique world of men's health. 0.98

00:46:05.300 From testosterone and fitness to diets and fertility.

00:46:08.300 And things that happen in the bedroom.

00:46:11.260 You mean sleep?

00:46:12.440 Yeah, something like that, Jordan.

00:46:14.160 We'll talk science without the jargon and get you real answers to the stuff you actually wonder about.

00:46:19.260 It's going to be fun.

00:46:20.220 Whether you're 27, 97, or somewhere in between.

00:46:23.200 Men's Health is about more than six packs and supplements.

00:46:26.400 It's about energy, confidence, and connection.

00:46:29.680 We don't just want you to live longer.

00:46:31.540 We want you to live better.

00:46:33.120 So check out The Mailroom on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your favorite shows.

00:46:39.480 On this week's episode of the next chapter, I, D.D. Jakes, get to sit down with Oprah Winfrey, a media mogul, philanthropist, and global trailblazer.

00:46:51.200 My life, although it may look like an anomaly, it has only been possible because I was obedient to the calls.

00:47:01.620 This episode dives deep into how Oprah turned pain into purpose and what it really means to evolve with everybody watching.

00:47:10.040 Every decision I have ever made has come from sitting with the Spirit and asking God, what would you have me do first?

00:47:20.900 Whether you're rebuilding, reimagining, or just trying to hold it together, this one will speak directly to you.

00:47:30.020 Listen to the next chapter on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast episodes drop weekly.

00:47:40.720 On the podcast Health Stuff, we are tackling all the health questions that keep you up at night.

00:47:45.320 Yes, I'm Dr. Priyanka Wally, a double board certified physician.

00:47:49.440 And I'm Hari Kondabolu, a comedian and someone who once Googled, do I have scurvy at 3 a.m.

00:47:54.760 On Health Stuff, we're talking about health in a different way.

00:47:58.460 It's not only about what we can do to improve our health.

00:48:01.020 But also what our health says about us and the way we're living.

00:48:04.580 Like our episode where we look at diabetes.

00:48:07.380 In the United States, I mean, 50% of Americans are pre-diabetic.

00:48:11.900 How preventable is type 2?

00:48:14.980 Extremely.

00:48:15.500 Or our in-depth analysis of how incredible mangoes are.

00:48:21.240 Oh, it's hard to explain to the rest of the world that, like, your mangoes are fine because

00:48:26.200 mangoes are incredible, but, like, you don't even know.

00:48:28.840 You don't know.

00:48:30.020 You don't know.

00:48:32.240 It's going to be a fun ride.

00:48:33.940 So tune in.

00:48:35.000 Listen to Health Stuff on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

00:48:40.240 The Big Take podcast from Bloomberg News dives deep into one big global business story every

00:48:47.420 weekday.

00:48:48.280 A shutdown means we don't get the data, but it also means for President Trump that there's

00:48:52.760 no chance of bad news on the labor market.

00:48:56.260 What does a bacon, egg and cheese sandwich reveal about the economy?

00:48:59.760 Our breakfast foods are consistent consumer staples, and so they sort of become outsized

00:49:04.920 indicators of inflation.

00:49:06.680 What's behind Elon Musk's trillion-dollar payout?

00:49:10.400 There's a sort of concerted effort to message that Musk is coming back.

00:49:15.340 He's putting politics aside.

00:49:16.900 He's left the White House.

00:49:18.740 And what can the PCE tell you that the CPI can't?

00:49:21.860 CPI tries to measure out-of-pocket costs that consumers are paying for things, whereas

00:49:28.260 the PCE index that the Fed targets is a little bit broader of a measure.

00:49:33.040 Listen to The Big Take from Bloomberg News every weekday afternoon.

00:49:36.680 On the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

00:49:42.740 The issues of narco-trafficking, et cetera, it's obviously raised, and when I was down

00:49:48.900 at COP in Brazil, this was a question.

00:49:51.360 I had a press conference, a few hundred reporters, and it was interesting how many questions I

00:49:54.640 got on this topic, not on topic, meaning climate issues.

00:49:59.440 They expect that the Americans are going to start bombing Venezuela any day.

00:50:03.140 You got it.

00:50:03.960 I mean, a lot of people are speculating.

00:50:05.920 It's a little bit of wag the dog.

00:50:07.520 There's a lot of distrust about the administration, particularly at the time Epstein files and

00:50:12.620 everything else going on, everything that arguably is going wrong.

00:50:16.460 Trump's had a difficult few weeks, and I would argue a few months, but don't really last few

00:50:21.160 weeks.

00:50:21.400 What do you make of what's going on with these strikes on these boats?

00:50:27.800 What do you make?

00:50:28.720 Is this a strategy to take out Maduro?

00:50:32.300 Is it a strategy to create anxiety for their regime of sorts, for folks down in that region

00:50:42.320 more broadly?

00:50:42.860 I mean, it clearly isn't just a strategy to take out these boats, because the expense and

00:50:49.460 the amount of materiel that the Americans presently have arrayed off the coast is radically

00:50:55.220 beyond what you would need for that, right?

00:50:57.800 Let's put an aircraft carrier down there, doesn't it? 0.97

00:50:59.360 That's right.

00:50:59.880 Yeah.

00:51:00.240 Yeah.

00:51:00.420 Strike group.

00:51:01.380 Yeah.

00:51:01.760 Yeah.

00:51:02.440 No.

00:51:02.980 Now, I think what's interesting, though, is that unlike a lot of the policies you and

00:51:08.120 I have been talking about in the past moments, this is one that Trump has not personally been

00:51:14.740 driving details on.

00:51:16.240 This is Rubio?

00:51:17.360 This is, it's Rubio, it's Ratcliffe in CIA, it's Stephen Miller, actually, as well.

00:51:25.000 And they've really been pushing pretty hard to nothing is going to be worse than the Maduro

00:51:31.200 regime right now.

00:51:32.300 There are several reasons.

00:51:34.020 It is cocaine export coming into the United States.

00:51:38.680 It is oil going illegally to Cuba and then on to China.

00:51:44.300 It is ideological that you've got Venezuela, you've got Nicaragua, you've got Cuba, these

00:51:49.220 revolutionary leftist regimes where otherwise in the region, most of these countries are

00:51:52.580 turning towards the United States and towards the right.

00:51:55.760 And so there's a whole bunch of things happening at the same time.

00:51:58.740 And it's also a little bit of, hey, we were successful with Iran, you know, all we need 0.65

00:52:05.600 to do is a little flex.

00:52:06.700 We don't need boots on the ground.

00:52:08.180 We can get rid of this guy.

00:52:09.600 So I think that's what's driving them.

00:52:12.060 But this is going to be a lot harder because, you know, you are at the end of the day talking

00:52:17.660 about wanting Maduro out.

00:52:19.900 And what replaces him and how that gets done and who's responsible for that?

00:52:26.060 I mean, chaos is a real option here.

00:52:28.980 And chaos can easily be worse than the devil, you know, as we've seen in Libya, as we've

00:52:34.380 seen in Iraq.

00:52:35.240 And I would hate to see that kind of quagmire on America's shoulders.

00:52:41.640 Again, as much as I find Maduro utterly despicable and want to see this guy out of power.

00:52:47.840 It's interesting.

00:52:48.160 So what's your over-under, I mean, just in terms of your assessment of risk in terms

00:52:53.260 of them escalating?

00:52:55.260 I mean, clearly they've escalated significantly last week or so.

00:52:58.880 What do you anticipate in the next few months, weeks, months, in terms of any additional

00:53:03.280 activities?

00:53:04.280 I would say close to 100% that there will be direct U.S. military strikes against targets

00:53:11.160 in Venezuela.

00:53:12.640 Yes.

00:53:13.320 Now, that is not necessarily regime change.

00:53:16.040 I would be stunned if they don't.

00:53:17.620 I'm stunned.

00:53:19.680 Everything is oriented, including like just the cadence of meetings in the situation room

00:53:25.100 on this.

00:53:26.260 The amount of like, you know, intel and scenario planning.

00:53:29.180 There's no way they're putting this much effort into it to just say, yeah, I'm just

00:53:33.140 going to climb down.

00:53:33.880 Don't don't really care.

00:53:34.880 Unless Maduro were to be forced out absent that push.

00:53:39.260 And I just think he has too much control for that to happen.

00:53:42.260 Yeah, interesting.

00:53:43.540 Let's talk about control, things not happening.

00:53:47.520 Clearly, the Trump administration overpromised significantly in terms of controlling the agenda

00:53:53.320 for peace deal with Putin and Ukraine.

00:53:56.320 What do you make?

00:53:57.200 Did you?

00:53:57.700 I imagine we all came in with some hope and expectation that we can turn the page, that

00:54:02.340 maybe the power of personality, the relationships between the two leaders that could be persuaded.

00:54:07.940 I mean, where do you think we are right now?

00:54:10.900 Was the bilat up in Alaska a complete abject failure?

00:54:16.400 Yes.

00:54:16.620 So where are we right now?

00:54:19.340 I mean, Trump really did think that his relationship with Putin was going to make a difference.

00:54:24.960 I think he came to that honestly.

00:54:27.460 He he saw that Biden did not treat Putin as an equal leader at all.

00:54:33.200 Remember, the whole thing was autocrats and Democrats. 0.79

00:54:36.700 And he wasn't going to pick up the phone to talk with Putin.

00:54:39.540 He certainly wasn't going to invite him to a bilateral summit.

00:54:42.360 Trump was willing to do all of that.

00:54:43.640 And in fact, that first phone call he had with Putin, he was a two hour phone call.

00:54:48.300 He didn't even coordinate with the allies in advance.

00:54:50.640 So he gave Putin so much more respect as an equivalent great power.

00:54:57.920 The way when he met with Xi Jinping the last time around, when he spoke with him, that he

00:55:02.240 said, this is a G2 meeting.

00:55:04.800 Right.

00:55:05.400 I mean, he's seeding the field of we're the two great nations.

00:55:09.860 Right.

00:55:10.320 No one, no other American president would do that.

00:55:12.460 And so between that and saying that he would end the sanctions and he would no longer freeze

00:55:17.740 the assets and they could work together on arms control and up in the Arctic and critical

00:55:23.020 mineral exploitation, there was a lot that was being offered.

00:55:26.480 And Trump had already showed through the Ukrainians that he was willing to really pressure Ukraine 0.75

00:55:31.740 to accept a ceasefire with no preconditions, which, again, Biden didn't do.

00:55:37.120 I mean, Biden, I'd be talking to Jake Sullivan.

00:55:39.600 I'd be talking to like, you know, all of the people around Biden and they'd be saying,

00:55:43.340 well, we can't really get them to accept the terms for a ceasefire.

00:55:48.420 The Europeans are having a hard time with it.

00:55:50.320 It's hard to bring up.

00:55:51.440 Trump went directly to the source, got that done.

00:55:54.020 But Putin was absolutely uninterested in moving an inch on a ceasefire and kind of humiliated

00:56:05.780 Trump, honestly.

00:56:07.300 And I think that Trump has taken it personally.

00:56:09.660 Even though he clearly doesn't want to escalate against Russia, he now has put himself in a

00:56:15.260 position where he is escalating against Russia.

00:56:17.940 He is directly permissioning missiles that the Americans have provided to Ukraine and

00:56:25.500 allowing them to take it out of the box.

00:56:27.860 In other words, going far deeper in terms of their strikes with U.S. intelligence on targeting,

00:56:33.620 taking out Russian energy capabilities.

00:56:35.920 And that's why oil prices have been started to push up in the high 60s and might go to 70.

00:56:41.260 Wouldn't shock me in that environment.

00:56:43.120 But Trump also on Lukoil, on Rosneft, telling the Indians, I'm willing to give you a trade 0.99

00:56:49.100 deal.

00:56:49.460 But part of that is you stop buying that oil from Russia.

00:56:53.120 Biden was willing to allow them to buy that oil from Russia.

00:56:56.820 So, I mean, for all of the talk about how Trump has been some kind of a Russian asset,

00:57:02.740 the reality is Trump wanted a good relationship with Putin.

00:57:06.940 He doesn't care about the human rights abuses.

00:57:09.040 He doesn't care about the fact that he's dictated.

00:57:10.420 That could even be a feature, not a bug.

00:57:11.880 But now that Trump has humiliated him, not given him what he wants, Trump's pretty angry.

00:57:18.080 And Trump can also legitimately say, hey, the Europeans are doing most of the lifting

00:57:22.360 now, which is what I wanted from day one.

00:57:24.380 They're the ones spending most of the money.

00:57:25.760 We're not.

00:57:27.160 And that, so.

00:57:28.600 He would argue we're making money.

00:57:30.380 We're selling arms.

00:57:31.180 He would argue that.

00:57:31.900 Yeah.

00:57:32.560 He would argue that.

00:57:33.660 We're literally making money off the war because we're selling arms.

00:57:36.480 He would say that, yeah.

00:57:37.180 And so, I mean, you see Putin, five, ten.

00:57:41.380 I mean, is this another Afghanistan from Putin's perspective?

00:57:44.340 I mean, he's just going to wear everybody out.

00:57:46.240 This is another two, three years.

00:57:47.840 Grind, grind, grind. 0.89

00:57:49.300 I mean, inch by inch.

00:57:51.100 I mean, at what point do you see Zelensky breaking?

00:57:53.840 The EU saying, we've had enough.

00:57:56.220 I mean, we've got to move on.

00:57:57.660 How many more winters are people going to suffer?

00:58:00.060 How many more tens of thousands of lives are going to be lost?

00:58:02.960 So, Gavin, we've been coming up now on almost four years of war.

00:58:06.000 And after the first few months, it's been, you know, it hasn't moved a hell of a lot.

00:58:11.560 I feel like we've been lulled into a false sense of stability in this war.

00:58:17.620 I don't think, if God forbid we have another two, three years of the war, which is wholly 0.60

00:58:21.640 plausible, I don't think it's going to stay the same the way it has.

00:58:26.420 Meaning it's going to significantly escalate.

00:58:29.140 I fear that it's going to escalate for a few different reasons.

00:58:32.980 First, because I think the AWOL numbers of Ukrainian soldiers in the last year, I'm hearing

00:58:39.760 from the Ukrainians are about 300,000.

00:58:41.860 That's a lot greater than it was a year ago.

00:58:44.480 Having a harder time getting the reservists to actually fight.

00:58:47.940 The Ukrainians are stepping up their own indigenous military capabilities.

00:58:51.940 These Flamingo missiles with a 3,000 kilometer capability, and they're making 100 of them

00:58:59.640 every month.

00:59:01.000 Their drone capacity, which is massive, and a willingness to hit the Russians a lot harder 1.00

00:59:08.040 because the Ukrainians see that they can't continue to fight the way they have.

00:59:12.180 At the same time, the Russians, just in the last few days, we saw clearly ordered these 0.96

00:59:20.500 agents to try to blow up a Polish train that was providing aid to Ukraine.

00:59:27.360 This was after sending drones 300 kilometers into Poland.

00:59:31.380 I talked to a lot of the frontline leaders, the Baltic states, the Nordics, the Poles.

00:59:36.240 They're deeply concerned that this Russian asymmetrical warfare is already happening inside

00:59:46.300 NATO, and NATO hasn't done very much in direct response to that.

00:59:51.020 So if you're Putin, you think, okay, I can get away with that.

00:59:53.220 Can I get away with a little more?

00:59:54.340 Can I do a little more?

00:59:55.180 With the intention of dividing the Europeans, because you're hitting the frontline states,

00:59:59.980 you're not hitting Spain, right?

01:00:01.520 You're not hitting Italy.

01:00:02.480 So you get those guys to say, hey, we don't want to be a part of this.

01:00:04.920 So I think that for lots of reasons, both in terms of the direct Russia-Ukraine flight,

01:00:10.300 and also in terms of Russia and NATO, that the potential of this gets significantly worse.

01:00:16.120 And look, it's been horrific for the Ukrainian people.

01:00:19.060 And it's been horrific for the Russians fighting.

01:00:21.340 I mean, they've already had over a million casualties.

01:00:23.720 So I'm not trying to diminish that at all.

01:00:26.340 But for those of us sitting kibitzing about this in the United States, Russia-Ukraine has 0.83

01:00:32.300 seemed like a war von Tom, way over there, as the Russians would say.

01:00:37.180 And I fear it's going to start becoming a little more real for us.

01:00:41.740 A decade ago, I was on the trail of one of the country's most elusive serial killers.

01:00:48.680 But it wasn't until 2023 when he was finally caught.

01:00:52.480 The answers were there, hidden in plain sight.

01:00:55.260 So why did it take so long to catch him?

01:00:57.660 I'm Josh Zeman, and this is Monster, hunting the Long Island serial killer.

01:01:01.760 The investigation into the most notorious killer in New York since The Son of Sam.

01:01:06.520 Available now.

01:01:07.200 Listen for free on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

01:01:13.840 Hey there, Dr. Jesse Mills here.

01:01:15.920 I'm the director of the men's clinic at UCLA Health.

01:01:18.380 And I want to tell you about my new podcast called The Mailroom.

01:01:21.480 And I'm Jordan, the show's producer.

01:01:23.420 And like a lot of guys, I haven't been to the doctor in many years.

01:01:27.480 I'll be asking the questions we probably should be asking, but aren't.

01:01:30.960 Because guys usually don't go to the doctor unless a piece of their face is hanging off or they've broken a bone.

01:01:35.560 Well, depends which bone.

01:01:37.320 Well, that's true.

01:01:38.540 Every week we're breaking down the unique world of men's health. 1.00

01:01:41.540 From testosterone and fitness to diets and fertility.

01:01:44.560 And things that happen in the bedroom.

01:01:47.520 You mean sleep?

01:01:48.680 Yeah, something like that, Jordan.

01:01:50.400 We'll talk science without the jargon and get you real answers to the stuff you actually wonder about.

01:01:55.540 It's going to be fun.

01:01:56.500 Whether you're 27, 97, or somewhere in between.

01:02:00.080 Men's Health is about more than six packs and supplements.

01:02:02.320 It's about energy, confidence, and connection.

01:02:05.920 We don't just want you to live longer.

01:02:07.820 We want you to live better.

01:02:09.360 So check out The Mailroom on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your favorite shows.

01:02:14.720 On this week's episode of The Next Chapter, I, T.D. Jakes, get to sit down with Oprah Winfrey, a media mogul, philanthropist, and global trailblazer.

01:02:28.220 My life, although it may look like an anomaly, it has only been possible because I was obedient to the calls.

01:02:37.220 This episode dives deep into how Oprah turned pain into purpose and what it really means to evolve with everybody watching.

01:02:46.560 Every decision I have ever made has come from sitting with the Spirit and asking God, what would you have me do first?

01:02:57.160 Whether you're rebuilding, reimagining, or just trying to hold it together, this one will speak directly to you.

01:03:06.260 Listen to The Next Chapter on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast episodes drop weekly.

01:03:16.980 On the podcast Health Stuff, we are tackling all the health questions that keep you up at night.

01:03:21.560 Yes, I'm Dr. Priyanka Wally, a double board certified physician.

01:03:25.700 And I'm Hari Kondabolu, a comedian and someone who once Googled, do I have scurvy at 3 a.m.

01:03:31.100 On Health Stuff, we're talking about health in a different way.

01:03:34.500 It's not only about what we can do to improve our health.

01:03:37.320 But also what our health says about us and the way we're living.

01:03:40.840 Like our episode where we look at diabetes.

01:03:43.640 In the United States, I mean, 50% of Americans are pre-diabetic.

01:03:48.240 How preventable is type 2?

01:03:51.240 Extremely.

01:03:52.320 Or our in-depth analysis of how incredible mangoes are.

01:03:56.760 Oh, it's hard to explain to the rest of the world that, like, your mangoes are fine because mangoes are incredible.

01:04:03.680 But, like, you don't even know.

01:04:05.080 You don't know.

01:04:06.280 You don't know.

01:04:08.460 It's going to be a fun ride.

01:04:10.200 So tune in.

01:04:11.260 Listen to Health Stuff on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

01:04:16.500 The Big Take podcast from Bloomberg News dives deep into one big global business story every weekday.

01:04:24.520 A shutdown means we don't get the data, but it also means for President Trump that there's no chance of bad news on the labor market.

01:04:32.520 What does a bacon, egg and cheese sandwich reveal about the economy?

01:04:36.000 Our breakfast foods are consistent consumer staples, and so they sort of become outsized indicators of inflation.

01:04:42.940 What's behind Elon Musk's trillion-dollar payout?

01:04:46.680 There's a sort of concerted effort to message that Musk is coming back.

01:04:51.600 He's putting politics aside.

01:04:53.160 He's left the White House.

01:04:55.000 And what can the PCE tell you that the CPI can't?

01:04:58.100 CPI tries to measure out-of-pocket costs that consumers are paying for things,

01:05:04.340 whereas the PCE index that the Fed targets is a little bit broader of a measure.

01:05:09.140 Listen to The Big Take from Bloomberg News every weekday afternoon.

01:05:12.940 On the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

01:05:19.920 The NATO, the relationship with NATO.

01:05:23.280 It seems NATO stepped, I mean, Trump tested the theory around the 2%.

01:05:28.380 I mean, obviously, he's got these guys.

01:05:30.060 I mean, you mentioned Spain.

01:05:31.060 They may not be on board.

01:05:32.160 They're not.

01:05:32.440 But clearly, NATO, their posture has been a little bit more assertive in terms of their own contributions.

01:05:39.780 And there's some curious ways they determine and calculate what those numbers are.

01:05:44.300 Those numbers.

01:05:44.820 So I think there's a little bit of press release and celebrate success on that.

01:05:49.240 But what, I mean, do you think he's played NATO and very effective and strategically, Trump?

01:05:54.900 I mean, despite how he's handled it, the outcome in terms of where he's positioned NATO,

01:05:59.820 are we better off as a United States, I mean, in relationship to NATO than we were prior to this new Trump?

01:06:05.640 We're clearly better off because the Europeans are spending more. 0.94

01:06:09.160 We're clearly better off because the Germans are now taking this seriously. 0.77

01:06:12.880 We're a little worse off in the sense that the trust has been so eroded to get there.

01:06:17.400 So, I mean, you know, you kind of want to be in the middle, right?

01:06:21.980 You've had this policy of extremes where for a long time the Americans didn't really press the Europeans.

01:06:27.660 So the Europeans were free riding and they weren't developing their own military capabilities.

01:06:32.680 That made them a lot more vulnerable.

01:06:34.260 And now they have to really get up to speed fast.

01:06:37.400 But the damage that's being done to a lot of the relationships is real and is going to be persistent for a long, long time.

01:06:45.500 It's going to be hard to build.

01:06:46.480 I would be perfectly happy with the Trump approach of you guys have to spend or else we're out if it was not aligned with J.D. Vance and others saying you guys are the principal adversaries

01:07:02.620 and you don't respect rule of law or free speech and we don't want to be aligned with your governments.

01:07:09.680 We want the AFD in Germany, which the German government sees as a neo-Nazi party, right?

01:07:17.440 So I think that we've done a lot of own goals by having this let's just flood the zone on every issue and fight against our allies on everything,

01:07:28.900 as opposed to picking the few things that are really important for the strategic relationship and that's where the fight is.

01:07:35.100 And on everything else, keep it stable.

01:07:37.820 Don't make the news.

01:07:38.820 Don't make the headline.

01:07:39.660 But that's not the way this administration works.

01:07:41.740 And they don't really care about the long term, right?

01:07:45.320 That's the problem.

01:07:46.220 So short term, this is going to look like a lot of wins because you can point to the Europeans and say, look at how much they're doing and look at how much they're lifting.

01:07:54.360 And, you know, they're really when Zelensky last came over to the White House, look at how the Europeans all came with them. 0.60

01:07:59.820 And we're all sitting there like, you know, sort of being lectured to by the American president.

01:08:03.740 Doesn't that mean the Americans are showing leadership?

01:08:05.280 And to a degree, the answer to that is yes.

01:08:08.920 But you can't sit and think that these alliances can just take this idea that there's no friendship, no trust, no shared values,

01:08:19.260 that the only thing that aligns them is, you know, some common present day interest from a deal that's been struck.

01:08:28.300 That's not an alliance.

01:08:29.600 You've talked a lot.

01:08:30.600 I mean, this notion of short termism with Trump.

01:08:32.580 That's why we needed you and Bella.

01:08:33.860 That's why it was important for you to go.

01:08:35.440 And I appreciate that.

01:08:37.020 And I want to connect a few dots in terms of just my it was interesting just having the opportunity to meet with leaders from around the globe,

01:08:43.900 from Colombia to Chile, not just South America, Central America and European and to hear the feedback and to hear what you hear in private.

01:08:53.600 What is obviously what Trump often does not hear or is not interested in even knowing about in terms of their perspective is important.

01:09:02.500 But here, the perspective of short termism, which you've written a lot about, you've talked about, you've studied versus long term interests.

01:09:10.220 You know, you referenced AI.

01:09:13.540 You we talked about the bilat in APAC, which Trump did not participate in the APAC conference, but did the photo op and had the short inter exchange with President Xi.

01:09:24.080 She. Yeah. Oh, W.H.O. talked about USA, AID immigration policy, the attack on research and universities.

01:09:33.200 I mean, the seeds of our own destruction in many respects, that's a overstatement, perhaps.

01:09:37.660 It is. But the significant damage that potentially we're doing to these conveyor belts for talent, to this formula, some would say, for success that has defined the American dream, certainly defined California dream.

01:09:52.340 Those seeds have been planted. I mean, mass immigration or deportation, rather issues around the universities, which we're feeling here in California, disproportionately 584 million dollars of grants, research grants, NIH and SF grants, a billion dollar extortion fee that in fine that Trump wants from the UC system.

01:10:18.260 You mentioned what China's doing as it relates to potentially getting the best and the brightest and first round draft choices, because we've seen a significant decline in international students.

01:10:30.600 I think 17 percent so far year over year.

01:10:34.460 What do you make of all of that? And are we again, am I overstating the impacts in the medium and long term in terms of the damage that'll be done?

01:10:43.020 These alliances, truth, trust, these relates easy to damage stuff, hard to build those things back.

01:10:48.260 So I think you can't look at the whole elephant, all of the damage that's being done to so much American trust and soft power and commitment that has been undone, unwound unnecessarily, and think that it's all just going to be fine because these countries have nowhere else to go.

01:11:12.500 It is true that they have nowhere else good to go, right?

01:11:17.620 There is no other market that you would bet on as much as you would bet on the United States at this point and in the near term future.

01:11:24.160 But they will all hedge.

01:11:26.160 They will all do less.

01:11:28.160 And, you know, it's not death by a thousand cuts, but it's a lot of injury by a thousand cuts.

01:11:33.460 You know, I mean, you know, you're Gulliver and you take enough Lilliputians and eventually your limbs don't work quite as well, right?

01:11:40.660 And they are, a lot of them are Lilliputians because, and I don't mean to disparage, but the fact is that the big change in the U.S. alliance system in the last 30 years has been American allies getting weaker.

01:11:53.260 It's not been America getting weaker.

01:11:55.020 The American allies have, they have not invested.

01:11:58.400 They are not growing.

01:11:59.420 And you're talking about EU, EU, UK, Canada, Japan, Australia, South Korea, all of them.

01:12:06.180 From a GDP perspective, from an innovation and entrepreneurial perspective.

01:12:09.360 Yep.

01:12:09.680 New technologies, defense, growth, productivity, even demographics in the case of most of them.

01:12:15.280 Yeah.

01:12:15.580 Every single piece.

01:12:16.920 And so, you know.

01:12:17.840 But the reason why we have outperformed all of those reasons, those underlying reasons, back to that formula for success.

01:12:25.200 Those things are being vandalized.

01:12:28.320 They're putting sand in the gears of all those things.

01:12:29.900 So what I would want Trump to do, I wouldn't, I would want Trump to say, look, we need our allies, but we need strong allies.

01:12:38.800 So the EU is not a threat to us.

01:12:41.040 We don't want the EU to break apart where we have much stronger relations with individual European countries that we can drag into the dirt and force them to do what we want.

01:12:49.060 No, we want the EU to be stronger because a stronger EU is more capable of being a useful ally with the United States and fighting against Russia, fighting against China, and maybe even forcing them over time to align more with our own interests.

01:13:05.960 A strong Canada, a strong Japan, a strong South Korea.

01:13:09.980 That's the message that you want, that the Americans need friends, but they need capable friends.

01:13:14.960 That's, that's a message that allows, and yeah, there's got to be some tough love, that if you don't do these things, that we're not going to give you what we did before.

01:13:23.900 But it's not, we want to destroy the EU.

01:13:26.420 It's not that we want the anti-establishment populace who don't care about your strength to win in these individual countries just because those people happen to like me and we're simpatico on the global stage.

01:13:37.520 But that's a long-term perspective, where short-term, Trump is like, of course I want, you know, sort of the AFD.

01:13:43.800 Of course I want, you know, sort of reform in the UK.

01:13:46.600 And these guys would completely undermine the productivity of their own countries.

01:13:52.340 So that's, that's where I think there's real misalignment.

01:13:55.760 It's not that the Americans don't understand the, the symptoms of, of what's ailing everyone geopolitically, but the, the, the cure that they're offering is going to make the patient worse.

01:14:10.540 You wrote a book, Us Versus Them, talked about this notion of, you know, well, the, the, you framed globalization in, in, in, and I think a very honest and reflective way, winners and losers, et cetera.

01:14:22.480 And we experienced, this is a period of de-globalization.

01:14:25.960 How would you describe this moment?

01:14:27.320 I would say this is a period where the United States is no longer driving globalization.

01:14:31.640 There are still processes of globalization that are occurring.

01:14:34.740 I mean, when I think about globalization, I think about people and goods and services and capital ideas moving across borders faster and faster all over the world.

01:14:42.460 There are certainly lots of that that is happening more and more.

01:14:45.340 Technology facilitates it, but, but the United States is no longer driving it.

01:14:49.940 In many ways, the U.S. is assertively moving away from it.

01:14:54.920 And there is a level of decoupling happening directly between the United States and China and forcing other countries to make uncomfortable decisions.

01:15:05.840 So, yeah, I, I don't think we're in an environment where globalization is, you know, sort of being driven by the economists and the political scientists don't have anything to say about it.

01:15:15.200 The politics are throwing sand in the gears and it acts as a tax on the productivity.

01:15:21.820 But it's not, we can't just think of this in terms of the economic shift.

01:15:25.180 We also have to recognize that so much of this is that the U.S. political system, while the U.S. economy has been doing so well, the U.S. dollar has been doing so well, the U.S. political system is not.

01:15:35.040 And I think this is the fundamental issue that when I started my work on my Ph.D. back in 1989, wall came down.

01:15:43.300 And I think part of the reason I wanted to do what I do is because this was a time of, of great pride to be an American.

01:15:50.660 There's a wall coming down.

01:15:52.420 I mean, you had all these captive nations, East Bloc, Soviet Union. 0.96

01:15:56.320 And we're looking at our system and saying, damn, I wish my country worked like that. 0.93

01:16:00.200 I wish I had some of that liberty, some of that rule of law. 0.92

01:16:02.940 And in 35 years, people still want access to the U.S. market and our technologies and our companies best in the world.

01:16:11.940 But nobody around the world looks at the U.S. political system and says, I wish my political system ran like that.

01:16:18.180 In 35 years.

01:16:20.480 And I think that it is very hard to overestimate the impact of that damage on relations around the world long term, because you're no longer driving what people want to be.

01:16:34.780 You're no longer acting.

01:16:36.140 And that's this fundamental notion.

01:16:38.200 I mean, these are the historic project of our founding fathers.

01:16:41.660 You're referencing this notion of popular sovereignty broadly.

01:16:46.000 And we'll maybe reserve that popular sovereignty aside.

01:16:49.140 But this notion of the rule of law.

01:16:51.000 I'll get to the rule of dawn, which you coined, which I've cripped.

01:16:54.340 This notion of co-equal branches of government.

01:16:58.660 What aspects of our political system do you fear are most being, you know, significant?

01:17:05.120 Well, are looked at negatively now in that respect.

01:17:10.300 They're fundamental on the global stage.

01:17:13.720 You talk about commitment to being the architect of global free trade, which the United States is no longer willing to do.

01:17:22.800 And not only that, but the idea of a well-regulated free market, increasingly people looking at the U.S. and saying this is a country that supports kleptocracy.

01:17:30.980 This is a country that supports state corruption.

01:17:34.740 And the best way to cut a deal is to make sure that you're paying off the right people that are close to the administration.

01:17:39.540 So you're talking, I mean, now you're getting into, I mean, just looking at the self-dealing, looking at...

01:17:45.100 That's part of it.

01:17:46.060 Yeah.

01:17:46.320 And that's one thing.

01:17:47.300 Sort of what someone called the crony capitalism.

01:17:50.060 Yeah.

01:17:50.440 They sort of almost pay to play.

01:17:52.400 I hear this from so many leaders.

01:17:54.000 Yeah.

01:17:54.160 And I hear this from so many CEOs inside the United States who are global CEOs.

01:17:58.520 Yeah.

01:17:59.080 No, and I mean, I couldn't agree with you more.

01:18:01.220 I mean, I did a Patriot site where I literally am selling knee pads, Trump Signature Series knee pads.

01:18:07.080 You said they sold.

01:18:07.720 You think you said they sold out.

01:18:08.740 They sold out.

01:18:09.640 Yeah.

01:18:09.920 No.

01:18:10.160 And yeah, I could.

01:18:11.820 Well, there are plenty of reasons why they've sold out because there's so many examples of law firms and universities and media companies,

01:18:18.320 not least of which some of my friends and CEOs that have sold out in that spirit.

01:18:24.480 But they're selling out what makes this, to your point, a reputation in this country.

01:18:29.200 They're selling out what makes the United States so central and so important.

01:18:33.900 And so I couldn't agree with you more.

01:18:36.360 But it's interesting.

01:18:37.420 From your perspective, though, you started with free trade.

01:18:40.580 You talked about sort of just the global leadership that this country has advanced in terms of building alliances and building that.

01:18:48.820 Yeah, collective security.

01:18:49.880 And NATO is still there.

01:18:52.560 And arguably, NATO is stronger than it was before because it's expanded a couple Nordic countries and the countries are spending more.

01:18:59.920 But the belief that the United States would actually stand for collective security if a country was invaded, that's deteriorated significantly.

01:19:09.100 And, you know, that belief in American reliability is core to collective security.

01:19:15.040 So you undermine that foreign aid.

01:19:17.280 The United States has historically provided more foreign aid than any other country in the world.

01:19:21.860 Still providing a lot of support to Israel and to Egypt, but around the world, they're shutting it down.

01:19:27.980 And the United Nations was created by the United States.

01:19:31.500 Yeah, right here in San Francisco.

01:19:32.800 Right here in San Francisco.

01:19:34.040 And the UN Charter reflected American values.

01:19:37.980 And it's something I'm really proud of.

01:19:40.200 And I think part of the reason that we don't support the UN right now is because we look at what the UN stands for and we feel a little shame that it's not what America stands for anymore today.

01:19:54.520 And we don't like that.

01:19:55.720 We don't like something that we created making us look, you know, reflective on ourselves.

01:20:02.100 But I think all of these things, from the perspective of other countries around the world that really do need rule of law, they really do need collective security.

01:20:12.220 They do need U.S.-led multilateral trade because otherwise they don't have the ability to operate in a global system that is a law of the jungle.

01:20:23.600 They just don't.

01:20:24.460 They don't have the ability to operate and succeed under rule of dawn.

01:20:27.840 They need rule of law.

01:20:28.820 And I think that's a serious problem.

01:20:31.600 Well, you talk about apex predators or this notion that sort of T-Rex presidency where the guy either devours you or he mates with you, one or the other.

01:20:39.900 You have that option.

01:20:41.120 That's very visual.

01:20:42.240 It is visual.

01:20:43.020 Forgive me.

01:20:43.340 But, I mean, this notion of the rule of the jungle and the rule of dawn.

01:20:47.720 And, you know, I've used your phrase, and I hope it is dawning on people, how real and serious that is.

01:20:56.760 And it's example here in California.

01:20:58.540 We're in the receiving end of so much of this disproportionately.

01:21:01.280 But increasingly, I hope people are growing more and more conscious of this.

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01:21:35.020 Hey there, Dr. Jesse Mills here.

01:21:37.540 I'm the director of the men's clinic at UCLA Health.

01:21:40.000 And I want to tell you about my new podcast called The Mailroom.

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01:22:36.360 On this week's episode of The Next Chapter, I, D.D. Jakes, get to sit down with Oprah Winfrey, a media mogul, philanthropist, and global trailblazer.

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01:23:38.460 On the podcast Health Stuff, we are tackling all the health questions that keep you up at night.

01:23:43.140 Yes, I'm Dr. Priyanka Wally, a double board certified physician.

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01:24:39.460 The Big Take podcast from Bloomberg News dives deep into one big global business story every weekday.

01:24:46.100 A shutdown means we don't get the data, but it also means for President Trump that there's no chance of bad news on the labor market.

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01:24:57.040 Our breakfast foods are consistent consumer staples, and so they sort of become outsized indicators of inflation.

01:25:05.000 What's behind Elon Musk's trillion-dollar payout?

01:25:08.260 There's a sort of concerted effort to message that Musk is coming back.

01:25:13.200 He's putting politics aside.

01:25:14.780 He's left the White House.

01:25:16.620 And what can the PCE tell you that the CPI can't?

01:25:19.600 CPI tries to measure out-of-pocket costs that consumers are paying for things, whereas the PCE index that the Fed targets is a little bit broader of a measure.

01:25:31.260 Listen to The Big Take from Bloomberg News every weekday afternoon on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

01:25:40.040 But I want to just close my full time on two things that we haven't brought up.

01:25:44.520 This issue of AI seems also that we're ceding global leadership on AI and AI standards.

01:25:52.420 California has led this country in terms of at least addressing frontier model regulation.

01:25:57.960 There's some legislation in New York right now that potentially can mirror aspects of what we have done here in our state.

01:26:06.320 We take the issue very seriously as the birthplace and obviously the center of the universe in terms of AI.

01:26:11.360 But you mentioned China in relationship to AI.

01:26:15.560 What does AI mean from your perspective when we look at geopolitically and risks, rewards, opportunities, challenges in the next two, three years?

01:26:27.440 Super intelligence, national security, truth, trust.

01:26:32.020 What do you make of AI?

01:26:33.100 I'm not worried particularly about super intelligence.

01:26:36.260 I think that I'm much more worried about what human beings that control and program the algorithms are doing with them if they are bad actors, if they're indifferent, if they're just focused on short-term fiduciary responsibility as opposed to well-being long-term.

01:26:50.540 And if they're not really capitalists.

01:26:52.620 Because really capitalists care about not just profits but also losses.

01:26:56.880 They're capitalists also when they experience losses.

01:26:58.760 And yet a lot of the people that are driving AI do not account for the losses in society, do not account for the losses in the economy that come from damages, from product damages that come from rolling these things out.

01:27:14.560 So I think we need more capitalism among the AI folks in that regard.

01:27:17.860 It's interesting.

01:27:18.160 You know, but I am enormous enthusiast about this technology.

01:27:24.880 I mean, you're just down there in Brazil and you saw Bill Gates saying he's focused less on climate change because, not because he doesn't care, not because he doesn't believe the science, he certainly does, but because he thinks that what happens in AI is going to be more impactful in the near term to determine all these things.

01:27:41.640 I buy that.

01:27:42.540 You do buy that.

01:27:43.020 I do.

01:27:43.300 I mean, I think that we can exceed sustainable development goals that we've been failing to meet in terms of poverty, in terms of availability of food and water, in terms of shelter, in terms of efficiency, of the transfer of resources.

01:28:03.440 So much of the world is so wealthy and yet we waste so much that's so inefficient.

01:28:07.760 AI can fix that.

01:28:09.680 But we need to make sure that everyone has access to it.

01:28:12.760 It needs to be invested in and not just be a tool that's available for a tiny percentage of really rich people and everybody else loses their job or everybody else doesn't have access to it.

01:28:22.720 And that requires governance.

01:28:25.920 That requires, like, not just companies to be in charge of the regulations because companies ultimately aren't accountable to citizens.

01:28:33.920 It means that, like, the states, the cities, the countries, and even in some cases the world needs to take some responsibility.

01:28:41.600 And Americans, you know, Chinese are really enthusiastic about what AI is going to do.

01:28:47.040 Americans are scared.

01:28:48.160 Yeah.

01:28:48.480 And the reason they're scared is because the U.S., they don't believe in their leaders to take care of them.

01:28:56.620 Americans should be the ones that are most excited about the technology.

01:28:59.960 Right?

01:29:00.300 I mean, this is a frontier economy.

01:29:01.980 We started so much of bringing new technology and making this country incredible on the back of that and then exporting it all over the world.

01:29:12.320 And now we have the most transformative technology that humankind has ever come close to creating.

01:29:17.620 And you're telling me that Americans are scared of it?

01:29:20.740 That is a governance issue.

01:29:22.040 That's interesting.

01:29:26.960 Unpacking that, at the core, this notion of truth and trust, governance, that's compelling.

01:29:35.500 What is less compelling to me but seems more compelling than any other issue in America today is an issue you just did a video on. 0.98

01:29:43.620 And that is this damn Epstein thing. 0.98

01:29:47.280 What is... 0.99

01:29:48.000 It's amazing that this is like...

01:29:49.260 It is just completely captured everyone's attention.

01:29:53.320 You presented your point of view and you wrote about and did a video saying, you know, Trump has literally, he could not have scripted a more ineffective response.

01:30:08.560 And he, I mean, in every way, just flubbing.

01:30:10.140 You know, I mean, what does the Epstein files represent to you?

01:30:13.620 What does it mean?

01:30:14.460 I'm just curious.

01:30:15.260 What, I mean, what is it?

01:30:17.620 What is our fascination?

01:30:18.780 Why is this?

01:30:19.600 I mean, besides just the atrocities that occurred and the victims, beyond that, and God bless on that, what is it about the Epstein files that has captured so much imagination and attention?

01:30:31.840 I mean, we talked about kleptocracy. 0.99

01:30:33.760 We talk about the capturing of the American political system by people of power.

01:30:37.700 We talk about rule of law and the two-tier system of justice. 0.99

01:30:40.320 I think that what Epstein represents to Americans are these assholes can get away with anything. 0.99

01:30:50.040 Well said. 0.99

01:30:50.300 You know, my mother used to read the Inquirer every weekend.

01:30:54.220 She didn't have a high school education.

01:30:55.560 And she wasn't, you know, she wasn't on top of all the global issues.

01:31:00.940 But she knew in her heart that these people with a lot of money and a lot of power in the United States weren't going to take care of her and her kids.

01:31:10.460 Didn't trust them.

01:31:11.460 Yeah.

01:31:11.560 And, you know, this is before algorithms.

01:31:13.940 This is before the blogosphere.

01:31:15.200 This is before cable news.

01:31:16.380 But nonetheless, you know, and I think that what we see today with the Epstein files after decades of Americans, wealthy Americans, just not taking enough care of their fellow citizens.

01:31:30.680 The wealthiest people in the world right now, Americans, how much do they actually care, do they feel responsibility and accountability for their fellow citizens?

01:31:42.580 Never mind the rest of the people on the planet, which I would kind of like if they'd pay attention to that too, but just their fellow citizens.

01:31:48.720 I mean, you know, Bill Gates is revered around the world for a lot of what he has done.

01:31:53.420 Elon, not so much.

01:31:55.420 Bezos, not so much.

01:31:57.320 And I think that that's a failure of the American political system.

01:32:03.820 And we see it playing out in the Epstein files right now.

01:32:07.260 And, yeah, there's, of course, there's also algorithmically people focusing on one side or the other.

01:32:12.120 And Trump has flipped so much on this.

01:32:14.280 But people understand that the core, something is rotten, right, at the core of this venture.

01:32:21.360 And it's part of the reason why they think, why people think that no matter who they vote for, they can't fix this.

01:32:26.960 They can't resolve this.

01:32:28.920 And, you know, I think it's not going away.

01:32:32.860 I can't close on that.

01:32:34.420 So I want to ask you, give me why we should be optimistic in the next five to 10 years.

01:32:40.200 What gives you optimism?

01:32:41.920 I mean, you mentioned AI should give us more optimism than pessimism.

01:32:46.260 But what does, what aspects of some of these global trend lines that we opened up with give you more confidence and distill you with a bigger sense of well-being than perhaps most of us are aware of?

01:33:00.160 Look, young people are more global.

01:33:06.120 They're online a lot, yeah.

01:33:08.120 But they're also skeptical of what they're being fed in a healthy way.

01:33:13.060 And their friends, when I was growing up, my friends were playing stickball in the backyard.

01:33:18.660 They all grew up within three blocks.

01:33:20.740 There were some Irish, some Puerto Ricans, some Italians.

01:33:24.300 They don't want nothing else.

01:33:25.820 Kids today are, you know, playing Fortnite on Twitch with kids from South Korea and they're watching K-pop and everything else.

01:33:33.060 Or with politicians on Fortnite Friday.

01:33:35.400 Oh, were you?

01:33:35.820 Yeah, yeah.

01:33:36.480 At TwitchCon as well.

01:33:38.020 But keep going.

01:33:38.680 So these kids, they're global.

01:33:41.020 And you've done podcasts with some of them, right?

01:33:43.720 That's right.

01:33:43.920 So important.

01:33:45.640 They have far more opportunities to connect with their fellow human beings.

01:33:49.620 Why do they care more about climate than the 40, 50, 60, 70-year-olds?

01:33:53.340 Because they're the ones that are actually inheriting that world.

01:33:58.460 Why are they more skeptical of the U.S. political system?

01:34:03.040 Because they see that the 70- and 80-year-olds that are running the Republican Democratic Party won't let go.

01:34:10.100 Won't let go after well beyond they should.

01:34:12.900 And this is a huge Trump problem.

01:34:15.820 This was a huge Biden problem.

01:34:17.720 I mean, come on, people.

01:34:20.700 And I think the young people, okay, maybe they don't all believe that the way they're going to fix this is by voting.

01:34:28.500 But they're going to do something.

01:34:30.840 You know, they're not just going to sit.

01:34:32.060 And demographically, they're going to be in charge.

01:34:34.040 And I hope they're going to be successful.

01:34:36.620 Ian Brenner, thank you for being on our podcast.

01:34:39.260 I appreciate it.

01:34:39.920 Good to be with you.

01:34:40.340 Thank you.

01:34:42.900 A decade ago, I was on the trail of one of the country's most elusive serial killers.

01:34:51.480 But it wasn't until 2023 when he was finally caught.

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01:35:00.440 I'm Josh Zeman.

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01:36:05.080 In the United States, I mean, 50% of Americans are pre-diabetic.

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