This is Gavin Newsom - And, This is Richard Haass

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00:01:12.120 This week on Dear Chelsea, with me, Chelsea Handler, Sophia Bush is here. 0.96

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00:01:23.840 Quite an honor. 0.93

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00:01:25.840 When you're actually more fluid with your sexuality, the swing goes from, 0.97

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00:03:01.640 This is Gavin Newsom.

00:03:03.260 And this is Richard Haass.

00:03:08.720 Richard, thank you so much for taking the time to come on, particularly at a remarkable time in world history,

00:03:15.220 particularly in history unfolding in the Middle East.

00:03:18.220 Today, President Trump seemed to have a day that he's been looking forward to for years and years and years,

00:03:25.840 pushing NATO to move from 2% to 5%.

00:03:28.260 What was your takeaway from this NATO summit, at least the first day?

00:03:35.300 And does Trump deserve, I think, a lot of praise for an accomplishment here?

00:03:41.080 I would argue President Trump, well, first of all, Gavin, good to be with you.

00:03:46.260 Thank you.

00:03:47.120 Look, I would argue President Trump deserves credit for spurring the Europeans to do what they ought to have done years before.

00:03:54.720 They ought to be putting forward a larger share of the effort for what's a common defense.

00:04:00.440 I would just as an aside, I would say much more important to me than whether the Europeans spend 3% or 2.5% or 4.5% is how they spend it.

00:04:09.900 And I'd actually say something you'd probably agree with in public policy.

00:04:13.160 How you spend money is almost always more important than how much you spend.

00:04:17.420 And the problem with European defense is not just that they spend too little, but each country pretty much determines how it spends its defense euros.

00:04:26.220 So the whole ends up being less than the sum of its parts.

00:04:29.620 So I would be pushing, if I were advising the president, I would say, yeah, push them to do more.

00:04:34.220 But secondly, also push them, in a sense, to become more European rather than country by country by country, which is the way they often go about it.

00:04:44.460 But I think that part is good. The less good is I think he's introduced some doubts into the reliability of the United States and what you might call the automatic quality of Article 5, America's willingness to go to bat for Europe.

00:04:59.980 And obviously, there's also some fairly significant differences about how to handle the most immediate threat, which is Russia and the war in Ukraine.

00:05:09.180 So I think it's a mixed bag. But yes, it's good to see the Europeans essentially getting pushed to do more.

00:05:15.960 And it's interesting, just as you unpack, and I appreciate the how you spend and where you spend.

00:05:20.980 It was interesting just looking at some of the details that their direct spend in support of Ukraine would be considered as part of that contribution as it relates to that breakdown of 5%.

00:05:31.920 It was also, though, interesting to see the breakdown within the countries, obviously Germany looking to move quicker by 2029 with close to 70% increase in their domestic defense spending.

00:05:44.780 And then Spain, who was called out by the president today, looking not necessarily to reach that new America.

00:05:52.660 Does that mean much to you or is that just, that's just noise?

00:05:56.380 The most interesting part of that is Germany.

00:06:01.080 Less what Germany is prepared to do in defense, though doing more is welcome. 0.99

00:06:05.360 But Germany has changed its laws and essentially now is able to raise serious debt, which was something that modern Germany had an allergy to because of the whole Weimar experience.

00:06:16.980 And the fact that Germany now can really go into the markets and raise debt gives them far more capacity to potentially grow their economies as well as to contribute to national security.

00:06:28.660 And I'd even go so far as to say the most interesting figure in Europe right now is the new chancellor of Germany.

00:06:34.900 And even though he had a rough start and getting confirmed and so forth by his parliament, I actually think that Chancellor Mertz is in a position to, in some ways, have Germany stake out the leadership position in Europe, something that historically, since World War II, Germany's been reticent to do.

00:06:52.380 So I would watch that space, particularly since the French, the British and others are so gridlocked domestically.

00:06:59.500 I think Germany now occupies the critical position.

00:07:02.960 When you referenced the Article 5, sort of, you know, I think the president, when he was flying over, there was some ambiguity, once again, sort of creating some doubt and anxiety.

00:07:12.300 He seemed to shift tone a little bit when he landed.

00:07:16.740 But is that it's just that on again, off again relationship to the Article 5.

00:07:20.900 Is that what you're referring to is sort of a lack of of certainty and confidence in the president?

00:07:25.780 Yeah, for those who haven't read the NATO treaty recently, Article 5 is the core of the agreement.

00:07:31.740 We're essentially an attack on one is considered to be an attack on all.

00:07:34.920 Curiously, it's only been invoked once in NATO's entire history, and that was on behalf of the United States after 9-11.

00:07:43.720 But alliances depend upon predictability and reliability and dependability.

00:07:49.520 And I would argue that President Trump has introduced a significant degree of uncertainty into that, which I think is counterproductive.

00:07:58.160 He would argue perhaps it was necessary to get the Europeans to do more.

00:08:01.640 I would have said, well, probably there's better ways to do that.

00:08:04.940 But that's where we are.

00:08:06.380 And to the extent Russia senses there's uncertainty there, Putin, who, as we've seen in Ukraine, can be risk prone, might be more likely to take risks.

00:08:16.000 So I always believe that the best way to deter is through certainty.

00:08:20.020 So your friends know you'll be there for them.

00:08:22.180 And just as important, your enemies know you'll be there for your friends.

00:08:24.800 So I would like for President Trump, as the days and weeks and months unfold, to look for opportunities to make clear that whatever our differences are with Europe over their level of defense effort, we see it as in our interest to be there with them.

00:08:39.760 In terms of the actual bombing itself, and I think by most objective standards, it was a success, whether or not these sites were, quote unquote, obliterated.

00:08:51.880 That's a separate conversation.

00:08:53.920 Is that your assessment that this was a success, that in the spirit of what you just said around some certainty that the president wasn't bluffing in terms of wanting to get diplomatic deal done?

00:09:05.880 They appeared not to want to move in that direction.

00:09:09.160 So then he asserted himself militarily.

00:09:11.760 I think it was the right thing to do.

00:09:13.820 For years, we've been playing this game with the Iranians where they were enriching uranium far, far, far beyond levels anybody would need to generate electricity. 1.00

00:09:22.520 So we all knew what this was about, to put into place the prerequisites for a nuclear weapons program.

00:09:29.660 I also understood we couldn't allow Iran to get on the threshold, much less have nuclear weapons. 0.84

00:09:36.100 We made that mistake, I would argue, with North Korea. 0.95

00:09:39.100 We don't want to have it now in this part of the world, because if Iran ever got nuclear weapons, not only would they act more aggressively and pose potentially an existential threat to Israel. 0.99

00:09:47.800 But you know and I know the Saudis, the Egyptians, the Turks and others would follow suit.

00:09:52.800 And the only thing worse than the Middle East we've known is the Middle East I've just described. 1.00

00:09:57.000 So I think what Israel and then the United States did was warranted.

00:10:02.140 We'll see what the results are.

00:10:04.340 Whatever happened, the Iranian program was not obliterated.

00:10:08.520 Elements of their program, I expect, will have survived the attacks on the three sides.

00:10:13.380 More important, I don't know, you don't know, probably the president doesn't know,

00:10:17.880 what amount of uranium or number of centrifuges and so forth are under some roof of some warehouse in some other part of Iran.

00:10:27.000 I actually think going forward, Gavin, we have got to assume just the opposite.

00:10:31.840 The Iranian program was not obliterated, but elements of that program exist.

00:10:36.360 And what's worrisome to me, I'll be honest with you, I would think that a lot of Iranian leaders have said,

00:10:41.760 hey, this never would have happened had we had nuclear weapons.

00:10:45.220 We could have deterred the Israelis and the Americans. 1.00

00:10:47.420 So I worry that going forward, I think their determination to develop nuclear weapons might, if anything, be even greater.

00:10:55.560 Well, you know, I want to just pick up on that point because that's an interesting observation and an important one.

00:11:00.500 And we'll get to North Korea as well in a second because your reference goes back to the opportunity

00:11:05.480 the United States had under the Clinton administration to take out their program before it proliferated.

00:11:11.520 But I want to talk a little bit about the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

00:11:14.960 People have brought that up since the 1970s.

00:11:17.500 I think 200 countries were signatories to that, including Iran.

00:11:22.300 There were a number of countries that have developed nuclear programs that were not original signers to that.

00:11:29.440 Obviously, Korea and Israel, to the extent they have a nuclear program, quote unquote, but certainly India and Pakistan.

00:11:38.220 But those countries, as a consequence, would make the claim you just made that they've had that deterrent.

00:11:45.540 Now, Iran assumed that they would not be bombed, I presume, under the terms of the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

00:11:52.660 Does that put at risk the entire notion of the Non-Proliferation Treaty, what's just occurred?

00:11:57.920 So let me give you a slightly convoluted answer.

00:12:01.280 The Non-Proliferation Treaty is only a small piece of the effort against non-proliferation.

00:12:07.540 I don't think it's a wildly successful piece in many ways because it really is a gentleman's agreement.

00:12:13.180 We declare what facilities we're doing certain types of research or engineering in, and then the inspectors come look at them.

00:12:20.100 Inspectors can't look at places that are not known.

00:12:22.800 So the entire treaty, in that sense, is based upon a degree of faith that I tend not to have.

00:12:29.620 North Korea withdrew from the treaty, and there was no particular penalty or anything for them having done so.

00:12:36.580 It turns out the most important non-proliferation tool out there is not the treaty.

00:12:40.540 It's called America's Alliances.

00:12:42.580 By giving countries the confidence that we are there for them, they then don't need to become self-sufficient.

00:12:47.680 And the biggest way to accelerate proliferation will be, for example, if the South Koreans or others come to have doubts about their relationships with us.

00:12:56.740 So don't get me wrong.

00:12:57.500 I'm not saying the Non-Proliferation Treaty doesn't have some utility.

00:13:00.580 And I think in particular, the inspection provisions can be useful.

00:13:05.080 But we shouldn't exaggerate its impact.

00:13:08.340 And Iran, I would think, was going to do and is going to do what it wants, regardless of its obligations under this treaty. 0.75

00:13:16.480 So back to what you were saying.

00:13:18.640 I mean, so just let's speculate what happens going forward.

00:13:23.400 Obviously, this notion of regime change, people sort of pulled back a little bit, or at least it appears the president's pulled back.

00:13:29.640 I don't know if Bibi is pulled back on the notion of regime change.

00:13:33.560 But what won't change is their pursuit, presumably, of a nuclear weapon.

00:13:37.680 As you note, we don't know that the program was, quote, unquote, obliterated, even if the physical sites may have been.

00:13:44.020 We don't know where this enriched uranium is and centrifuges.

00:13:48.360 You imagine now, your concern is now, what, that they accelerate that program with the darkness, meaning without any international inspectors?

00:13:57.860 That's my concern.

00:13:59.420 It might not be their immediate priority, which I think is to shore up the regime.

00:14:03.080 But at some point, I do think reconstituting a program will become a priority, which means, by the way, the day may come where Israel, the United States, needs to once again use military force if we discover some activity going on and the Iranians won't voluntarily give it up. 0.94

00:14:20.540 You know, it's not normal that problems get solved.

00:14:24.160 When I was the head of the Council on Foreign Relations, I used to discourage the fellows from using the word solve or solution, because that's just the way history works.

00:14:34.040 So I don't believe whatever it is we accomplished the other day, and however much we accomplished, it didn't solve the problem.

00:14:40.900 It may have reduced it, it may have set back the Iranian program, but that'll pop up again.

00:14:46.000 It's, by the way, you mentioned regime change.

00:14:47.580 It's one of the reasons that people, I think, are attracted to the idea.

00:14:52.500 If you can't solve the Iranian problem through military force or through diplomacy, then people say, what's left?

00:14:58.760 Well, let's get a benign government. 0.78

00:15:00.600 And I think that's why there's so much interest in regime change.

00:15:03.680 The problem is it's easier to talk about it than bring it about.

00:15:06.960 I don't see the prerequisites in place for it.

00:15:10.220 And in any case, you can't base your policy on it.

00:15:13.640 People don't like it when I say this, but it's a wish more than a strategy.

00:15:17.820 If it were to happen, I think it brings problems, but obvious benefits with it.

00:15:23.140 But we just can't count on it.

00:15:24.940 And no president can give the order to say, Secretary of Defense or State, and say, get me regime change in Iran.

00:15:33.280 They wouldn't have then the tools to necessarily carry it out.

00:15:36.900 But when it comes to just issues of trust, and I think one of the questions that I get and I ask myself all the time, I feel like for most of my adult life, I've been hearing Bibi Netanyahu say they're just months away, a year away from having weapons-grade nuclear weapons.

00:15:55.440 And, you know, at a certain point, you just stop believing it.

00:15:59.380 But your assessment, you know, your own objective assessment this time did appear to be different, that they were getting closer and actually appeared to be within a matter of months in a position where potentially we had a weapons-grade weapon coming out of Iran.

00:16:17.000 Is that accurate?

00:16:18.380 Pretty much.

00:16:19.420 Look, this was a gathering threat.

00:16:21.100 It wasn't an imminent threat.

00:16:22.280 It was a gathering threat.

00:16:23.260 And the question is, how close?

00:16:25.620 Now, we know they had done most of the enrichment work they needed to do.

00:16:28.540 To get uranium enriched, plus or minus 60 percent, that's not just 60 percent of the effort.

00:16:34.380 That's actually closer to 90 percent of the effort for reasons of physics that I couldn't explain because I don't understand them well enough.

00:16:41.480 But I think I'm right there.

00:16:44.520 What you don't know is how close they were on some of the other things, the actual fabrication of explosive devices, the bomb, and so forth.

00:16:51.200 And there was the Israelis believed, and the economists published some very interesting stuff about it, that they had made some breakthroughs.

00:16:59.260 They had had some secret programs and so forth.

00:17:01.800 And I think we have to be tolerant.

00:17:04.180 Just like after 9-11, we were less willing to run certain risks, say, about what Iraq could do.

00:17:12.800 And this is not a justification for the Iraq war.

00:17:15.000 I was against it.

00:17:15.740 But just I understand some of the thinking.

00:17:18.460 I think Israel, after October 7th, had less tolerance of running certain risks in their case.

00:17:24.920 So I just think the combination of a change mentality in Israel, the evisceration of groups like Hezbollah, which couldn't really attack Israel anymore, and this new intelligence, which suggested however far along the Iranians were, they were farther along. 0.94

00:17:41.480 And I think for all those reasons, the Israelis decided to act, and we came in behind. 0.95

00:17:47.320 And does this keep Bibi in power for another extended period of time?

00:17:52.220 Well, he's got roughly, what, 16, 17 months to run before he has to, I think the elections are scheduled for October of next year.

00:17:58.340 It certainly helps them.

00:17:59.840 Israel, as you know, is deeply divided about issues on democracy, Gaza, what have you, whether they're religious, can be drafted, and so forth.

00:18:09.020 They are not divided on Iran.

00:18:10.680 Iran, left and right, hawk and dove, there aren't a lot of doves in Israel when it comes to Iran.

00:18:16.680 So it clearly helps Bibi.

00:18:18.640 It changes the conversation a little bit.

00:18:21.280 It brings Israel together.

00:18:22.500 It's seen as an accomplishment.

00:18:24.300 And he has.

00:18:24.780 He has changed in many ways Israel's strategic reality, given the change in Syria, Hezbollah, the weakening of Hamas, whatever you think, however critical people watching this might be, of what Israel's done and how it's done it in Gaza.

00:18:39.620 The reality is that Bibi Netanyahu, in the last, what, 18 months, has dramatically reduced the external threat to Israel.

00:18:50.840 Just like great shoes, great books take you places.

00:18:54.580 Through unforgettable love stories and into conversations with characters you'll never forget.

00:18:59.820 I think any good romance, it gives me this feeling of, like, butterflies.

00:19:04.400 I'm Danielle Robay, and this is Bookmarked by Reese's Book Club.

00:19:07.640 The new podcast from Hello Sunshine and iHeart Podcasts.

00:19:11.360 Every week I sit down with your favorite book lovers, authors, celebrities, book talkers, and more, to explore the stories that shape us, on the page and off.

00:19:20.700 I've been reading every Reese's Book Club pick, deep diving book talk theories, and obsessing over book-to-screen casts for years.

00:19:27.960 And now, I get to talk to the people making the magic.

00:19:30.920 So if you've ever fallen in love with a fictional character, or cried at the last chapter, or passed a book to a friend saying,

00:19:38.120 you have to read this, this podcast is for you.

00:19:42.220 Listen to Bookmarked by Reese's Book Club on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

00:19:48.360 Don't miss a You vs. You podcast.

00:19:54.400 Join Lex Borrero every week as he sits down with some of the biggest names in entertainment

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00:20:20.600 and therefore, set you free to live the life of your dreams.

00:20:23.980 Here's a sneak peek.

00:20:25.660 I'm trained to go compete. I'm trained to be, like, harder.

00:20:28.600 But sometimes that mentality stops you from stopping and smelling the flowers in your own garden.

00:20:33.620 Is it wrong to want more?

00:20:35.180 We migrated. Our family migrated here. I'm like second generation.

00:20:38.520 Listen to You vs. You as part of My Cultura Podcast Network.

00:20:43.020 Available on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

00:20:51.100 This week on Dear Chelsea with me, Chelsea Handler.

00:20:54.380 Sophia Bush is here. 0.96

00:20:55.940 Tell me how that feels to be a hot considered a hot lesbian. 0.97

00:20:59.460 Quite an honor.

00:21:00.520 You know what's funny is you do this weird math, like if you're a woman dating men,

00:21:05.740 nobody wants to talk to you about your sexuality. 1.00

00:21:07.760 They just want to either say, like, you're a prude or a slut, you know? 1.00

00:21:11.480 If you date too much, they criticize you. 1.00

00:21:13.620 If you don't date, you must be frigid.

00:21:15.140 Whatever.

00:21:15.900 And then the thing that gets added when you're actually more fluid with your sexuality

00:21:20.240 is the swing goes to, you better identify exactly who you are so we can figure out what name to call you.

00:21:26.820 And it's like, okay.

00:21:29.200 And, you know, I sort of looked around and was like, has nobody been paying attention to, like, all the hot girls?

00:21:33.160 I've been kissing on camera.

00:21:35.140 You know, maybe not in front of you off camera, but hi.

00:21:38.240 I've always been here.

00:21:39.820 Listen to Dear Chelsea on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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00:23:22.980 Now, back to your regularly scheduled listening.

00:23:25.580 And on that basis, are you confident that we'll have sort of an Abraham Accord 2.0 with

00:23:35.760 Saudi coming in? 0.96

00:23:38.300 Is that the map that you see changing, or is that still an open-ended question with everything

00:23:44.240 that's going on or not going on in Gaza, West Bank, et cetera?

00:23:48.220 What's your over-under on that?

00:23:49.620 Look, as you know, for a while, it looked like it was going to happen before October 7th.

00:23:54.980 And then because of, if you will, October 8th, the Israeli policy, the Saudis backed off.

00:24:00.200 They got nervous or uneasy about it.

00:24:03.080 Two things may have changed now, though, which is interesting.

00:24:06.620 One is Bibi Netanyahu, as you were just suggesting, Gavin, politically is stronger than he was.

00:24:11.500 So he might give him more leverage against those in his government who oppose any sort of change

00:24:16.600 in policy on Gaza.

00:24:17.660 Secondly, there's this guy named Donald Trump.

00:24:20.540 It's interesting on how many occasions Trump has distanced himself from Bibi Netanyahu.

00:24:26.200 He did it on the Houthis. 0.91

00:24:27.680 He did it on the prisoner move with Hamas.

00:24:31.600 He told the Israelis a few weeks ago, don't you dare attack Iran.

00:24:35.400 We're trying to see if diplomacy works.

00:24:37.600 Just the other day, shall we say, in rather colorful language, he was out there.

00:24:42.760 So it's possible that tomorrow he would tell the Israelis, hey, knock it off in Gaza or do this 0.82

00:24:50.800 on the West Bank.

00:24:52.680 There's an unsentimental quality to America firstism.

00:24:57.500 And one of the things you see, we began the conversation talking about Europe.

00:25:02.920 Well, one of the things, whether we're talking about security or tariffs or now this, being an ally of the United States

00:25:09.000 ain't what it used to be when it comes to Donald Trump.

00:25:11.760 Friends and allies no longer get preferred treatment.

00:25:14.340 So it wouldn't shock me if Donald Trump, in his hope to get the Saudis to normalize with Israel,

00:25:21.240 put real pressure on Bibi Netanyahu and put the Israelis in a real jam.

00:25:25.900 Trump is popular in Israel.

00:25:27.620 And also, it's almost like Nixon going to China.

00:25:30.340 Nixon once said, you know, they didn't have Nixon to worry about.

00:25:33.060 Well, you can't do an end run around Donald Trump.

00:25:35.660 So if Donald Trump leans on Bibi Netanyahu, who are the Israelis going to appeal to in American

00:25:40.640 domestic politics?

00:25:41.700 So I actually think that's a curious possibility that something could happen there.

00:25:47.400 Do you find him under the influence, and I say that loosely, I mean, because of his own financial

00:25:55.340 relationships to the UAE and Qatar and the Saudis, sort of the Arab, I mean, do you think they will 1.00

00:26:02.640 play an outsized role in influencing Trump in that respect?

00:26:06.160 Look, if they had, he probably wouldn't have gone ahead and done the strike.

00:26:10.160 As much as they wanted Iran cut down to size, they were very nervous that they were going

00:26:14.400 to be in the line of fire of retaliation.

00:26:17.460 So my guess is they're an influence, but not a determinant of what he does.

00:26:22.120 And I say that in no way, how would I put it?

00:26:24.220 I'm not comfortable with, shall we say, this merging of the personal and the governmental

00:26:29.180 when it comes to wealth creation or, you know, the fact that people don't recuse themselves from

00:26:34.500 things or they carry on private sector activity.

00:26:37.540 I'm as uncomfortable as I expect you are or a lot of people watching that.

00:26:41.400 But I don't think they have, I haven't seen that they have undue influence over.

00:26:45.940 What is it, you've written a lot about doctrines.

00:26:49.240 You talk about the Monroe Doctrine, I think 1823, sort of walked us through the Truman 0.58

00:26:53.540 Doctrine and aspects of not only Reagan, but even the Freedom Doctrine, as you refer to

00:27:00.020 it under the Bush administration, dealing with terrorism, no place to hide.

00:27:05.060 What, do you have any sense of what the hell the Trump Doctrine is?

00:27:09.060 Or, I mean, J.D. Vance tried to assert one in a speech yesterday.

00:27:12.100 What, America First, what is it?

00:27:15.400 What's your sense?

00:27:17.180 It's a good question.

00:27:17.760 I think about it a lot.

00:27:19.460 One, it might be early.

00:27:21.320 It's still early, particularly in the second term.

00:27:23.320 And the second term is a hell of a lot more than a continuation of the first term.

00:27:27.700 You may love it, you may hate it, but it ain't, you know, Trump 2.0 is more than an extension

00:27:32.020 of Trump 1.0.

00:27:33.740 There is something with this America Firstism that our alliances aren't as predictable.

00:27:40.160 Our enemies aren't seen as enemies.

00:27:42.540 There's a kind of perpetual maneuver in American foreign policy.

00:27:47.540 So I'm not quite sure if that adds to a doctrine.

00:27:50.660 In some ways, doctrines lead you to predictable outcomes.

00:27:54.020 In a funny sort of way, Trump, America Firstism at times leads you to unpredictable outcomes.

00:27:59.640 It's not isolationist, though.

00:28:01.560 I would say it's quite unilateral, you know, as we saw the other day.

00:28:06.240 I also wrote to you a few weeks ago that there is something of a doctrine.

00:28:09.940 It's the opposite of the freedom doctrine, where under people like George W. Bush or even

00:28:14.580 Reagan or Carter, we cared an awful lot about how governments treated their own people.

00:28:20.780 This is just the opposite.

00:28:22.100 This is a look the other way foreign policy.

00:28:24.320 What you do inside your borders is your business.

00:28:26.820 All we care about is our business.

00:28:28.740 So there's almost amoral quality to Trumpian foreign policy.

00:28:34.080 And again, doctrines have to explain and predict.

00:28:37.140 So I'm not quite sure yet we have anything that quite rises to that level.

00:28:41.620 It's interesting.

00:28:42.080 I mean, the only thing that would contradict that modestly was J.D. Vance's speech in Munich,

00:28:47.520 where he was lecturing the Europeans.

00:28:50.000 100 percent.

00:28:50.720 You're right to point out that contradiction.

00:28:52.280 It's the one area where it's almost like there's an equation of elite Ivy League universities

00:28:58.420 with elite Europe.

00:29:01.000 And that's the one place where the administration is willing to tackle internal situations or

00:29:08.860 circumstances in foreign countries.

00:29:10.980 But I think that's the exception that kind of proves the rule.

00:29:14.280 Interesting.

00:29:14.480 So where's Putin now?

00:29:16.200 What's he seen?

00:29:17.060 What's what do you think he's made of the last 12 days?

00:29:21.920 Where is he in relationship?

00:29:23.680 I mean, he's got a free pass in some respects.

00:29:26.140 The eyes are off him.

00:29:27.420 He's stepping things up in Ukraine.

00:29:30.080 Is it status quo ante or is he now reconsidering things?

00:29:33.840 Probably a mixed bag.

00:29:34.980 Well, as you say, I think you're 100 percent right.

00:29:36.980 He has to be happy with the fact that both at the G7 and then at NATO, Zelensky and Ukraine

00:29:44.120 were not quite center stage.

00:29:46.020 And that very much fits or feeds Putin's idea that time is on his side.

00:29:52.280 So I think he has to feel pretty good, pretty good about that.

00:29:55.840 Anytime there's instability that increases energy prices, not that we've seen a real price

00:30:00.140 spike, that's got to make him feel good given his economy.

00:30:03.100 He's got to feel a little bit uneasy with this demonstration of American power, with the

00:30:08.020 discrepancy between what the United States can do and what, say, Iran could do.

00:30:12.560 That's got to make him a little bit uneasy.

00:30:14.280 But I would think all things be equal the last few days probably made him feel OK for one

00:30:19.780 other reason.

00:30:20.900 I don't know if you noticed the one my chutzpah award for the month, the statement by the Russian

00:30:26.380 foreign ministry, critical of Israel for not respecting the territorial integrity and sovereignty

00:30:33.040 of a UN member.

00:30:34.360 And I'm sitting there reading that going, really, really?

00:30:38.420 So but the Russians have to like the idea that we are we would unilaterally decide that

00:30:44.920 certain uses of force were somehow acceptable.

00:30:47.760 And that's got to be something that Putin might actually, you know, welcome.

00:30:52.900 And do you welcome sort of I mean, look, from a tactical perspective, turn the page in terms

00:30:58.040 of trying to negotiate peace in Ukraine, obviously stubborn.

00:31:01.580 He wasn't able to get it done before he took the oath of office.

00:31:04.320 He wasn't able to get it done within the 24 hour time clock that he set himself up for.

00:31:09.000 But sort of the overtures to Putin, sort of negotiating Putin's talking points and putting

00:31:15.100 Zelensky on the spot.

00:31:16.820 But where do you think Trump is right now in relationship to, you know, he's been a little

00:31:20.980 more critical, at least publicly, been willing to be slightly more critical of Putin.

00:31:26.120 Where do you where you think the administration is vis-a-vis moving to a conclusion or a solution

00:31:32.040 here?

00:31:32.820 They're caught in the inconsistency of their own policy.

00:31:35.640 They're right to say that we need peace there.

00:31:38.920 And I think they had one improvement over the Biden policy where the Biden administration

00:31:43.340 would never speak honestly with Zelensky, at least publicly, and say, look, you know,

00:31:49.640 and we know that you're not going to militarily liberate Crimea or all the East.

00:31:54.400 Let's go for a deal that we get a ceasefire.

00:31:56.760 It doesn't prejudice your long term goals.

00:31:58.920 But let's stop this war.

00:32:00.240 That's Trump's idea.

00:32:01.620 And I think that's smart.

00:32:02.800 I think that's realistic.

00:32:03.980 Where he's inconsistent is he's sabotaging the chance for getting it by not being supportive

00:32:10.840 of Ukraine.

00:32:12.060 That gives Putin, again, the confidence that time is on his side.

00:32:16.960 If this president would announce this summer when the pipeline begins to run dry, we're

00:32:22.720 going to re-up American aid for Ukraine, not so they can militarily liberate all their land.

00:32:29.380 That's going to have to be done diplomatically.

00:32:31.820 But so Russian efforts will not succeed.

00:32:35.940 I think that would turn the war around.

00:32:38.320 And I actually think only for the more specific, I think that would persuade Putin over time

00:32:43.520 that more war would not lead to more territory.

00:32:46.480 And I think that actually would be the way to get things at the negotiating table, not for

00:32:50.860 peace, but for a ceasefire.

00:32:52.340 So the administration has the right goals.

00:32:55.260 It's just not going, it's going about it in 100% the wrong way.

00:32:58.780 So is Xi looking at, you know, year of whatever we're in with Ukraine, is that make him more

00:33:08.460 or less likely to pursue and make advanced pursuits in Taiwan?

00:33:16.560 Or is he seeing something different?

00:33:18.740 The asymmetry of warfare now, the nature and change, the transformation of warfare?

00:33:23.180 What's your sense of where Xi is at this moment as well in relationship, not only to Ukraine,

00:33:30.020 but also perhaps more broadly as well, to what the Trump administration just initiated

00:33:34.580 and Bibi in Iran?

00:33:37.700 My glib answer to you is going to be both or yes.

00:33:41.440 I think on one hand, he looks at Ukraine, he looks at the sanctions that have been introduced.

00:33:46.260 He looks at how Putin overestimated the capabilities of his own military.

00:33:51.620 He's seen how the West came to bat indirectly, but decisively for Ukraine, that had to have 0.96

00:33:59.820 given him pause.

00:34:01.200 I mean, look, think about it.

00:34:02.120 There's no general in the Chinese military who has military experience.

00:34:06.740 The last time they fought a war was against Vietnam.

00:34:09.200 They didn't do so hard.

00:34:11.520 And for the Chinese government to go to war against Taiwan and not succeed, imagine the domestic

00:34:19.060 political consequences of that, the questions of legitimacy.

00:34:23.020 It would raise not just for Xi as a person, but for the party.

00:34:26.820 So I actually think they're somewhat cautious here.

00:34:30.640 I also think they have to find it impossible to read Donald Trump, again, given the tariffs,

00:34:37.820 given what he just did the other day.

00:34:39.940 And I think that must introduce a role of caution.

00:34:42.320 I think they've got some internal issues.

00:34:43.920 He's been purging a lot of military leaders.

00:34:47.160 They've obviously got their economic challenges.

00:34:49.640 So he hasn't given up.

00:34:51.140 Don't get me wrong that Taiwan is his legacy.

00:34:54.740 That's his way to make himself a major figure in modern Chinese history.

00:34:59.740 But I don't think the moments arrive.

00:35:01.560 I think he wants to get a better reading on Donald Trump because we still don't have a

00:35:06.960 good feel for the Trump administration's relations with Japan, Taiwan, Australia, but none of

00:35:13.260 it's going particularly well.

00:35:14.980 I think he probably wants to see some more about the lessons of the modern battlefield.

00:35:19.560 He still wants to build up, among other things, his nuclear arms.

00:35:22.760 One of the lessons I think Xi Jinping learned about was the United States did not get directly

00:35:27.840 involved in helping Ukraine.

00:35:29.460 And he, I think from Xi Jinping's point of view, that was because of the massive Russian 1.00

00:35:33.400 nuclear arsenal.

00:35:34.400 So China right now is the owner of the world's fastest growing nuclear arsenal.

00:35:39.240 They're adding hundreds and hundreds of nuclear weapons each year.

00:35:42.460 They want to get, they kind of want to get the bronze medal in the serious nuclear arsenals,

00:35:49.500 Olympics.

00:35:50.080 And they're moving as quickly as they can in that direction.

00:35:54.540 But my guess is they don't want a showdown over Taiwan for several years until they believe

00:35:59.880 they can offset or deter any American pressure because of our nuclear advantages.

00:36:06.340 What do you make of the new president in Taiwan?

00:36:08.880 He's rolling out, I think, this week, a unity tour.

00:36:12.860 He's giving speeches.

00:36:14.440 I mean, he seems to be, you know, sort of not poking the bear, but certainly trying to sort

00:36:22.300 of suggest more muscularity vis-a-vis mainland China.

00:36:27.720 Is that, you know, what do you read into that?

00:36:30.580 Yeah.

00:36:30.800 I mean, some of that's politics.

00:36:31.940 Some of it's poking the bear.

00:36:33.280 My view is what I really want to do is see Taiwan get stronger.

00:36:38.200 In Taiwan, the level of defense effort is not in the right zip code still.

00:36:42.920 They've got to do a lot more.

00:36:44.140 You know, I look at, I mean, we talked about Israel a lot.

00:36:46.920 And, you know, Israel's in a, shall we say, difficult strategic situation, at least it

00:36:50.760 has been for most of its existence.

00:36:52.520 And you look at the level of military effort they've produced, or even us during the Cold

00:36:58.000 War, we were probably spending, I don't know, on the average of maybe six, five, six, seven

00:37:01.820 percent of GDP.

00:37:03.580 Taiwan's nowhere near that.

00:37:05.240 And look at the disparities between the mainland and Taiwan.

00:37:08.620 So Taiwan, you know, more important than what they say is what they do. 0.68

00:37:11.820 And I would say they've really got to make a much larger effort.

00:37:16.000 They've got to also look very carefully at what just happened in the Middle East and what's

00:37:19.620 happened in Ukraine and ask themselves whether they are incorporating the right strategic

00:37:24.580 lessons.

00:37:25.240 Too much of the Taiwan military historically has elements almost of ours, large, a small

00:37:30.960 number of expensive aircraft and so forth.

00:37:33.540 I actually think they need something, much larger numbers of smaller, cheaper systems would

00:37:40.400 probably be helpful.

00:37:42.940 The other country to really watch there is Japan.

00:37:45.180 I actually think we're at a moment in history where Japan's our most important ally, still

00:37:49.440 the world's third largest economy.

00:37:51.480 It's, and militarily, it's central to any scenario involving Chinese pressure against Taiwan.

00:37:57.580 And I worry about the deterioration in that relationship of late.

00:38:01.300 So, again, things like that might actually affect Chinese calculations as well.

00:38:06.980 But all that said, even though, you know, I worry about a lot and I worry about this as

00:38:12.920 a strategic, medium, long-term challenge, I don't get the sense this is a near-term challenge.

00:38:18.760 Interesting.

00:38:19.120 Only slight correction.

00:38:21.140 Japan is fourth to California's third.

00:38:24.960 I just had to comment on that.

00:38:28.540 4.1 trillion reasons.

00:38:30.080 Did I miss the declaration?

00:38:31.340 I'm just saying, I'm waiting for my G7 invitation.

00:38:33.980 That's all.

00:38:34.580 You know, or G5.

00:38:36.520 I mean, I don't know.

00:38:37.100 Whatever.

00:38:37.520 G4. 0.52

00:38:38.080 I mean, three.

00:38:44.180 It's interesting you say Japan is the most important.

00:38:46.300 I've heard people, others sort of, you know, suggest that Australia plays an outsized role

00:38:52.820 in terms of just, you know, looking at this sort of strategic realignment.

00:38:57.100 Where do you make, I mean, the president or the leadership there surprised some pundits

00:39:02.380 in pulling out a pretty healthy margin and a victory.

00:39:06.440 Obviously, their overtures back and forth to China.

00:39:09.700 But you made a point, which I hadn't really reflected on, Trump's sort of ambiguity with

00:39:14.580 those relationships, South Korea, obviously, and Japan and the trilat that the Biden administration

00:39:22.000 had.

00:39:22.620 Now we're seeing that taking shape with Xi.

00:39:25.760 And obviously, Australia seems to be sort of the plus one right now.

00:39:29.400 But give me your sense of where Australia plays.

00:39:32.520 Look, Australia does play an outsized role.

00:39:35.700 I think that the relationship isn't as robust as it ought to be.

00:39:40.260 It hasn't gotten a whole lot of attention.

00:39:41.660 A lot of, you know, a lot of our economic policy has alienated our friends, you know,

00:39:47.080 the tariffs in particular.

00:39:50.000 Most of the line on defense is do more, do more, do more.

00:39:53.240 And that gets a little bit old after a while.

00:39:57.040 So I would like to see, if you will, more consultation with them.

00:40:01.140 And again, you can't have economic policy and military or strategic policy carried out

00:40:08.100 in separate silos.

00:40:08.960 It's very hard to hammer an ally or friend over trade issues on Mondays, Wednesdays, and

00:40:15.620 Fridays, and expect on Tuesdays, Thursdays, and Saturdays, the strategic relationship is

00:40:20.240 going to be just fine.

00:40:21.340 It doesn't work that way.

00:40:22.820 So I would say this is, again, I'm critical of a lot of the economic policy on its own

00:40:28.440 merits.

00:40:29.360 I don't think it makes sense full stop.

00:40:31.340 But even putting that aside, it certainly doesn't make sense, because it ends up penalizing

00:40:36.520 more than anyone, our friends, just those with the exception of China.

00:40:39.800 It's our friends and neighbors who are, as you know, our biggest economic partners.

00:40:44.640 With today, Donald Trump, in his press conference, when I was confronted on why he hasn't solved

00:40:50.160 the conflict in Ukraine, immediately, well, he pivoted to his success in immediately solving

00:40:58.640 the crisis in Pakistan and India.

00:41:02.040 Overstated?

00:41:02.900 Understated?

00:41:03.600 Is that an early success that he deserves more credit than perhaps he's even been given?

00:41:07.900 It sounds slightly ungenerous on my part, but I think it's a bit exaggerated.

00:41:13.920 And it also has rub-raw U.S.-Indian relations.

00:41:18.200 I was going to ask that next.

00:41:19.580 Yeah.

00:41:20.560 And, you know, look, it's always been difficult dealing with Pakistan and dealing with India, 1.00

00:41:25.700 but I think the great breakthrough, and it was a bipartisan one of the last several administrations,

00:41:30.040 was that U.S.-Indian relations got on a firmer, more important strategic footing, made sense

00:41:36.620 given India's demographics, economics, relationship with China, and so forth.

00:41:42.500 We began, as you know, to bring India into various Asia-Pacific strategic groupings.

00:41:49.220 I've always seen Pakistan more as a problem than as a partner. 1.00

00:41:52.880 It was a problem in Afghanistan in many ways.

00:41:57.540 And, you know, the questions of democracy and human rights, the role of the military in

00:42:02.640 politics, it's been a very uneasy country.

00:42:05.600 If you had asked me years ago, what keeps me up most tonight, I might have said Pakistan, 1.00

00:42:10.600 in part because of potential loss of command and control over nuclear materials.

00:42:16.620 So the even-handedness that we've reintroduced, and the shorthand for this is that we've once

00:42:22.860 again hyphenated the relationship.

00:42:25.860 So rather than having a strategic relationship with India and a lesser relationship with Pakistan,

00:42:32.240 we now once again have an India-Pakistan policy.

00:42:36.100 And it seems to me that is not a wise approach, given what I would argue is India's greater 1.00

00:42:41.600 inherent importance and potential.

00:42:44.980 You know, how close they really were to, you know, I don't think things were that close

00:42:49.800 to escalating or getting out of hand.

00:42:52.320 And that said, look, anytime the United States can dampen down actual or potential hostilities,

00:42:59.500 you know, great.

00:43:01.480 And I would, you know, say well done to the president or the secretary of state or anyone

00:43:06.740 else who had a hand in it.

00:43:08.440 But, you know, I wouldn't exaggerate it here.

00:43:11.080 And again, it may have come at some cost as well.

00:43:13.220 Yeah, well, and then there was also a price, the largest, I think one of their crypto exchanges

00:43:20.180 in Pakistan now is, well, and we'll get back into the corruption questions, or at least 0.95

00:43:25.860 questions of corruption, I should say.

00:43:28.040 No, but that's, look, I've heard that.

00:43:29.480 And again, I don't know, but it is what it is.

00:43:32.980 It is what it is.

00:43:33.880 So you've been writing a lot about, talking a lot about, and obviously only highlighted

00:43:38.140 with the last few weeks.

00:43:40.040 But what the hell is wrong with American foreign policy?

00:43:42.980 We get so damn bogged down in the Middle East.

00:43:45.320 You've made the point.

00:43:46.260 There's a whole world out there.

00:43:47.600 We talked, we sort of jumped around different countries, different regions.

00:43:51.260 But the reality is we have been for decades and decades and decades bogged down in the

00:43:55.920 Middle East.

00:43:56.380 You, you have an interesting history working in Republican administrations, Bush administrations,

00:44:00.820 but you made the notation earlier, and it's important point to highlight, you were opposed

00:44:05.080 to that last war in Iraq.

00:44:06.880 And so you've seen some light and some wisdom through all this.

00:44:09.560 But what the hell has happened to the United States over the last, I mean, my entire lifetime

00:44:15.360 been consumed by countries none of us could pronounce.

00:44:18.720 No one knows the difference between Iraq and Iran.

00:44:20.940 I think there was a song about that.

00:44:23.700 And, you know, what's going on?

00:44:26.560 Richard, help us.

00:44:28.420 Fair question.

00:44:29.780 Just for the record, I did work for a Democratic administration.

00:44:32.340 I worked in the Carter Pentagon.

00:44:33.500 And one of the big issues then was the Middle East, because 1979, you had the revolution 0.57

00:44:39.820 in Iran.

00:44:40.640 Then you had the Soviet invasion in Afghanistan.

00:44:44.560 Look, when the Cold War ended, what, 35 years ago?

00:44:47.960 I don't think anyone would have predicted, Gavin, that the Middle East would be such a focus

00:44:54.140 of American foreign policy.

00:44:55.340 The first real crisis of the post-Cold War era was the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait.

00:45:01.920 We, President Bush 41, rallied the country and the world to Kuwait's defense.

00:45:06.940 It was quite extraordinary, I think.

00:45:08.140 It was actually, to me, like I duly note that I was part of the administration.

00:45:14.280 I worked on the Middle East.

00:45:15.360 But, you know, credit, I think, is due to the president, Brent Skowcroft, Jim Baker, and

00:45:19.680 others.

00:45:19.960 It was quite remarkably done.

00:45:23.100 Well, I think what we did was necessary.

00:45:26.500 The 2003 Iraq War was a war of choice. 0.85

00:45:29.500 I think it was misguided.

00:45:32.440 And so, I think with the other day, what we did, I think, was warranted.

00:45:37.340 But in general, if I look at the map of American foreign policy, we still have 40,000 troops

00:45:42.800 in the Middle East.

00:45:44.480 It seems to me that it's a disproportionate focus for us.

00:45:48.940 It's one of the parts of the world where you don't have a great power presence.

00:45:52.500 You don't really have much great power competition in that it's regional powers, not great powers.

00:45:58.420 I would say, ultimately, 21st century history is going to be much more written about what

00:46:03.180 happens in Europe and above all the Asia-Pacific.

00:46:06.080 Asia-Pacific is where the people are.

00:46:07.780 It's where the wealth is.

00:46:08.720 It's where the militaries are going to be.

00:46:11.120 U.S.-China competition will be defining.

00:46:13.380 So, it seems to me, strategically, there is still something odd about the emphasis that

00:46:21.820 the Middle East gets. 0.82

00:46:22.760 And I think we've gotten too ambitious there at times.

00:46:25.860 I think, in particular, 43's effort to transform it, to bring about democracy, was, I think,

00:46:34.320 ill-advised.

00:46:35.300 I'll be diplomatic here.

00:46:36.800 And so forth.

00:46:39.500 And some other things that we've done, again, were, I would say, we should do no more than

00:46:44.160 is necessary in the Middle East, because there's other parts of the world that, I would argue,

00:46:48.720 are strategically more important.

00:46:51.420 And we just find ourselves more involved.

00:46:54.220 I don't have a good answer for you exactly why at times.

00:46:57.700 But somehow, it's captured our imagination.

00:46:59.820 One of the odd things for secretaries of state, and I've worked with quite a few,

00:47:02.900 how getting heavily involved in Middle Eastern diplomacy was almost part of the job after

00:47:07.700 Henry Kissinger.

00:47:09.340 And like it or not, people found themselves doing it.

00:47:12.740 And yeah, my take on all that is no mediator can ever be more successful than the protagonists

00:47:20.540 want or would allow him to be.

00:47:23.320 And I think at times, we've too often substituted our own efforts for what was missing on the

00:47:28.540 part of the locals.

00:47:29.820 So my argument is not to get out of the Middle East, but I would, where possible, dial it 1.00

00:47:33.880 down.

00:47:35.400 So, you know, it's interesting.

00:47:36.440 We had Steve Bannon on this show, and I don't want to even get the merits and demerits of

00:47:39.960 that conversation, but he's had a lot of more public conversations about what he perceived,

00:47:45.240 or at least asserted, was the wisdom of Trump focusing on things like Greenland or countries

00:47:52.760 like Greenland, focusing on the Panama Canal, looking at it more from a strategic prism of

00:47:59.180 sort of, you know, hemispheric framework and sort of creating a stronger consciousness to

00:48:07.180 sort of regionalize our American first framework and to put it in, you know, in at least creating

00:48:15.620 a narrative around what some of us perceived as just the absurdity of these threats to

00:48:21.680 take over Greenland, make Canada a 51st state, and invade or take over the Panama Canal.

00:48:28.180 But is there any merit to that argument, or is it just folly?

00:48:31.760 Folly would be generous.

00:48:35.840 It's a terrible idea.

00:48:37.720 Look, it seems to be setting up a kind of spheres of influence approach to the world.

00:48:42.180 So we would have the lead role in this part of the world, presumably.

00:48:46.060 Russia would have a lead role in the European theater, China and the Asia Pacific.

00:48:51.500 Russia and China would be very happy with that arrangement.

00:48:54.360 No one in this hemisphere would be.

00:48:56.140 So in a funny sort of way, we wouldn't succeed at playing an outsized role because it would

00:49:01.340 be resisted every inch of the way.

00:49:03.020 Like Americans, including a lot of the MAGA people, wouldn't want us involved in imperial

00:49:08.400 wars in this part of the world, whether it's Panama or Mexico or Greenland or Canada.

00:49:16.580 So I just think it's unnecessary.

00:49:19.280 We can have the access, the influence we need without an imperial coercive role.

00:49:27.460 And again, the real strategic challenges of the century are not going to be met.

00:49:31.340 Here, they're going to be met in other parts of the world, above all Asia and the Pacific.

00:49:35.980 So I think it's really a truly misguided approach, but it makes me uneasy because I can see something

00:49:44.100 of it in this kind of people don't yet speak about spheres of influence, but it's kind of

00:49:48.660 in the air or the water.

00:49:50.340 And I'm uneasy about it, but it's not a recipe for order.

00:49:53.800 We would be resisted here.

00:49:55.240 And history suggests that wherever there'd be a lot of opposition.

00:50:00.660 And by the way, it would become a real recipe for proliferation.

00:50:04.480 Watch how something like that were to begin to gain momentum.

00:50:07.980 Watch countries in Europe and Asia decide they need nuclear weapons of their own.

00:50:11.920 So I think that kind of an approach to the world would be, quite honestly, catastrophic.

00:50:18.440 You hear questions around the globe in terms of concerns.

00:50:25.860 We so often neglect the continent of Africa.

00:50:29.980 It was a reference today of Congo from the president.

00:50:32.740 The only time we tend to focus on Africa is in relationship to China's investment, the

00:50:39.860 same with Central America or South America as well.

00:50:43.760 I mean, parts of the globe that seem to be under-resourced in terms of mindshare and investment,

00:50:49.780 strategic investments.

00:50:51.840 What's your over-under in terms of America's posture in South America, Central America?

00:50:56.760 But first, let's start in Africa.

00:50:59.380 Look, what makes Africa sui generis, what makes it unique going forward, is demographics. 0.97

00:51:05.740 Most of the world is shrinking in number and getting older.

00:51:11.240 South Asia is the one partial exception.

00:51:14.200 Africa is an enormous exception. 0.83

00:51:16.620 Africa is going to be increasing by, what, more than a billion people over the next generation

00:51:20.680 or so.

00:51:21.740 And the question is whether that's a burden or a bonus.

00:51:25.620 And that remains to be seen.

00:51:27.040 So I just think Africa is important, not in the sense of great power, strategic competition.

00:51:33.360 That's a sideshow for the most part.

00:51:36.860 But really, it's a human story.

00:51:38.660 It's with all these people.

00:51:40.960 And the question is, can economically, these people, can they be employed?

00:51:46.760 Can governments provide services?

00:51:48.280 Can you have good enough governance in places like Nigeria, South Africa, and other countries

00:51:54.060 that you don't have civil wars and so forth?

00:51:57.560 So I think that's the big question for Africa.

00:52:00.300 And by the way, pretty true of Latin America as well, without the demographic dimension.

00:52:04.280 But again, the biggest problems in Latin America are not whether Brazil is going to invade

00:52:09.540 Argentina or whether Russia or China are going to do something.

00:52:12.700 The biggest issues there are internal.

00:52:14.180 They're governance.

00:52:14.700 Can the Mexican government meet the responsibilities and challenges of sovereignty within Mexico?

00:52:21.480 Can they deal with cartels and drugs and criminals and the like?

00:52:28.580 And where possible, I think our policy ought to be to help these countries meet their challenges

00:52:34.420 because it's good for them, but it's also good for us.

00:52:36.940 Then there'll be conditions of stability, better chance for democracy, better chance for trade

00:52:41.500 and investment, better way to deal with whether it's health challenges or climate challenges

00:52:46.560 or what have you.

00:52:48.960 So we do it.

00:52:50.060 It's both, again, it's not either or.

00:52:52.320 It's the right thing to do.

00:52:53.540 It's helpful to them.

00:52:54.580 But I think it also very much works in our favor.

00:52:57.560 It's one of the reasons, by the way, I'm so critical of what we've done to the Agency for

00:53:01.000 International Development.

00:53:02.000 The real folly of that is not that it provides opportunities for China, which it does. 0.95

00:53:07.140 But again, we weaken the ability of these societies and these governments to deal with

00:53:12.700 their immediate challenges.

00:53:13.840 That can't be good because ultimately failed states become places where terrorists set up

00:53:17.960 shop, where disease breaks out and spread.

00:53:21.480 Pirates do their things.

00:53:22.940 Criminals do their things.

00:53:24.200 So again, even out of narrow self-interest, we ought to be doing more in these places.

00:53:28.820 So I just think it's quite short-sighted.

00:53:37.380 So let me move back and I see you got a book behind you that I want to talk about in a moment.

00:53:43.040 And it brings us back a little bit more domestically.

00:53:46.080 And it brings back sort of just the prism of, you know, my lens has changed dramatically in

00:53:51.840 the last few weeks since I have just shy of 5,000 members of the U.S. military on the streets of

00:53:58.000 one of America's largest cities, Los Angeles, without counsel, consent, and the support of the state.

00:54:09.120 Revere the men and women in uniform that are out there, just not their assignment.

00:54:13.780 But it also sort of assigns some consideration and consciousness to this administration and what

00:54:21.560 distinguishes it from the first Trump administration.

00:54:25.300 I know you've got a blog, you've written a little bit about this, where you said Trump has organized

00:54:31.420 a cabinet that are more of amplifiers than more traditional sort of metrics of people that would

00:54:39.460 sort of, you know, create sort of a governing of our framework, a regulatory or regulate some of the

00:54:45.280 thinking. I mean, where are you today in terms of this administration, 150 or so days in, however many

00:54:53.980 days it's been, growing concern, simmering concerns? We overstate authoritarianism? Is that a word that we

00:55:02.760 should even be using? Is democracy hanging in the balance? Or are we fine? What's your sort of

00:55:09.140 over under? What's the temperature right now? Like the fact that we have to have this conversation

00:55:13.760 tells you something. I'm uneasy. I'm uncomfortable with words like authoritarianism and all that.

00:55:20.380 That's something to be avoided, ultimately. But there's tendencies that worry me. We haven't had

00:55:26.820 just two major lines that the administration's walked right up to and played footsie with, but hasn't

00:55:35.300 quite crossed in a decisive way. One was the one you were alluding to, which is the use of the American

00:55:41.260 military inside our borders. And that, to me, has all sorts of implications for American democracy,

00:55:48.840 but also it's terrible for the American military. It reduces readiness. It politicizes what has been,

00:55:56.080 in some ways, the most successful modern American institution that we have. So that's one thing that

00:56:04.260 makes me uneasy. We haven't quite crossed that line, but we've tiptoed up to it, as you know better

00:56:10.300 than I do. The other is defiance of decisions by the judiciary. And again, some of the quasi-defiance,

00:56:19.880 not quite hearing what the courts were saying on deportations and so forth. So that leaves me

00:56:26.260 uneasy. But I don't think either yet has reached the point of, shall we say, broad crisis or crisis of

00:56:32.700 the first order? But I think there's grounds for being uneasy. Look, it's the irony of this isn't

00:56:40.540 lost. Here we are. It's now what? Late June. And approximately, what, 12 months and a week,

00:56:47.640 we're going to be marking the 250th anniversary of this country. And to me, the lesson is not to take

00:56:56.320 democracy for granted. You've done good things, by the way, in your state with Josh Friday, I think,

00:57:02.120 in terms of promoting volunteerism and public service, which I think is great, both for the

00:57:08.660 values, enhances, but also it brings Americans together. I've tried to make a big thing about

00:57:13.780 civics education. We shouldn't assume that people don't need it or somehow get it automatically.

00:57:19.780 The answer is they do need it and they don't get it in their schools for the most part.

00:57:23.120 That ought to become a much bigger priority. And we ought to think a lot about what we need to

00:57:28.520 do to make sure American democracy works. But I get uneasy with some of the attacks on civil society,

00:57:35.520 whether it's law firms or universities or what have you. So I think there's a lot of yellow lights

00:57:42.400 flashing. And so my view is we ought to be mindful of them and not, again, not take anything for granted

00:57:52.060 or, you know, Churchill's always quoted for everything. And one of them is that Americans

00:57:58.940 could always be counted on to do the right thing after they do everything else. There's a kind of

00:58:03.520 sanguine quality. Or, yeah, we get in trouble, but we've always come out in the right place and

00:58:08.680 never sell America short. Probably, but let's not take it for granted. That's my only view. I think

00:58:15.180 it's just, we ought to feel a sense of urgency. And given how enormous the stakes are, I don't think

00:58:21.920 anybody kind of, how would I put it? You know, democracy can't be a spectator sport. And whether

00:58:28.040 you're in positions of authority like you, whether you're a quote unquote, justice citizen, or you're a

00:58:34.240 CEO of some business or what have you, I just think there's ways for people to make a difference.

00:58:42.640 And again, we just can't, it's too valuable to not, how would I put it? None of us wants to be in a

00:58:51.260 position where if things do head south, we wish we had done things that we, you know, that we simply

00:58:56.200 sat on the sidelines.

00:58:57.500 You talk about citizenship, you've written about citizenship, and you've challenged us to

00:59:05.800 reconsider what you refer to as sort of a lopsided notion of citizenship, that it's not just about

00:59:13.460 rights, it's about obligations. You wrote a book, The Bill of Obligations, and you enumerate a framework

00:59:20.220 about the critical importance of service and civics, the common good, the best of

00:59:27.500 you know, the Roman Republic, Greek democracy, and I think the principles our founding fathers took.

00:59:33.540 Talk to us a little bit about what inspired you to write the book. You wrote it a few years ago.

00:59:39.200 I imagine inspiration today would be even more acute, but it's an important and essential read. And by the

00:59:45.340 way, it's fantastic for anyone that's listening. Talk to me, Richard, a little bit, and all of us

00:59:52.080 about what inspired this book and what you're really trying to communicate.

00:59:56.040 Well, first of all, thank you. Years before, I wrote another book called Foreign Policy Begins at

01:00:02.780 Home. And, you know, I'm a foreign, as you look, as we can see from this conversation, for better or

01:00:07.380 worse, I'm a foreign policy guy. That's my educational training. That's my professional

01:00:11.460 experience. But probably about a decade ago, I started to see much greater connection between what

01:00:18.460 we were doing or not doing here at home and our ability to be effective abroad. I wrote about

01:00:22.740 everything from indebtedness. Ten years ago, a big issue was energy dependence, which, by the way,

01:00:28.960 shows we can work through things, quality or lack of it of our public education, strength of our

01:00:36.080 democracy. And I was worried very much a decade ago about our inability to generate majorities to

01:00:42.420 deal with challenges, increasingly, particularly at the federal level, less so at the state level,

01:00:47.440 we were gridlocked. And what I noticed in the years since that, things weren't getting better,

01:00:52.580 things were getting worse. And so I just decided, I can't quite answer your question, what inspired

01:00:59.980 me, but I was just thinking a lot about it. And I take long walks when I think about a book and

01:01:05.380 Central Park becomes my co-author. And just went back and reread, or in some cases read for the first

01:01:14.380 time, a lot of the great works of American political history. And I was just struck by how

01:01:20.800 much explicitly a lot of our modern or not so modern history was about the expansion of rights,

01:01:26.260 what Lincoln called the unfinished work. And I get it. And it's actually been one of the great

01:01:31.040 things, civil rights and so forth. We have a lot to be proud of in this country. It's towards a more

01:01:37.760 perfect union. We're not there, but we've made some real strides. But it seemed to me lost in that.

01:01:43.680 Increasingly, it was the other side of it, that no one was anymore talking about obligations.

01:01:48.720 And it's interesting, the founding fathers didn't talk about it a lot explicitly. I think they

01:01:52.040 assumed it, Gavin. I think it was implicit. They didn't think they needed to remind people about

01:01:56.460 it. But increasingly, it seemed to me we did. You look at the numbers of the people who are eligible

01:02:01.660 to vote and don't vote, the amount of people who get their information, quote unquote, from TikTok,

01:02:06.980 rather than from serious sources. The polls that show young people don't value democracy,

01:02:13.620 don't think it's worth saving, the lack of public service opportunities increasingly,

01:02:20.140 the failure to require quality civics to be taught in classrooms, growing threats or realities of

01:02:28.060 political violence, and on and on. And things like COVID and so forth showed me that a lack of

01:02:34.160 what you mentioned before about the common good, whether to get vaccinated or wear a mask. It's

01:02:40.080 not just for me, but it's also for the other person. So it just all added up. And I just decided

01:02:45.580 that I would put my hand to it. So it's, you know, for me as an author, it was great. But I learned

01:02:53.260 more writing that book than any other book I've ever written, because I knew less about it going in.

01:02:57.200 Huh. And you've written, what, 16 books? How many books?

01:03:01.080 I've written a dozen and edited a few more. So it's a large, it's up to 16, but I'm not done yet.

01:03:10.080 I got a few more in me.

01:03:13.100 There's plenty of chapters of your life left. And look, I'm grateful for this opportunity to share

01:03:20.660 a little bit of your time and your action and passion, as it were. And when we get you back,

01:03:28.040 I need you back for the original conversation that we haven't had, which is what the hell's

01:03:33.480 going on with my party, the Democratic Party, and how we're going to take back the House, what we need

01:03:39.140 to do, and how we get back on the right side of these presidential elections.

01:03:45.440 You give me 30 more seconds. I was going to raise that, which is that everyone's talking about BDA,

01:03:50.020 battle damage assessment, in terms of Iran. I was going to raise BDA in terms of the New York

01:03:55.460 mayoral primary.

01:03:58.720 Okay, is that how we're going to end this, as opposed to begin this conversation?

01:04:04.220 That is, for all of you listening, a preview of the next podcast with Richard Haas, my guest,

01:04:11.220 on, well, part one of this two-part pod. Richard, thanks for being here.

01:04:17.720 Thank you, sir. Enjoyed it.

01:04:27.220 This is an iHeart Podcast.

This is Gavin Newsom - June 26, 2025

And, This is Richard Haass

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