This is Gavin Newsom - Can Artificial Intelligence Be Controlled？ With Tristan Harris & Aza Raskin

00:00:00 Fear of all of us losing has to become greater than the fear of me losing to you.

00:00:05 Now, China doesn't want the financial system to collapse.

00:00:07 It's the Let It Rip administration.

00:00:10 What to do about AI?

00:00:11 Am I going to lose my job?

00:00:13 What about safety, cybersecurity?

00:00:16 What about privacy?

00:00:17 Well, a new documentary is out answering all of those questions.

00:00:21 Promise, peril, truth, trust.

00:00:23 Should we be pessimistic?

00:00:24 Should we be optimistic?

00:00:26 It's called the AI doc.

00:00:27 And two of the principal participants in that documentary, Tristan Harris and Aza Raskin, are up next on This is Gavin Newsom.

00:00:44 This is Gavin Newsom.

00:00:46 And this is Tristan Harris and Aza Raskin.

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00:03:03 All right.

00:03:04 So you guys, you're on the back end now of this world tour. 0.98

00:03:07 You guys have been all over the damn place. 0.98

00:03:09 Yeah. 0.97

00:03:09 And you launched it, and it's on the basis of a movie that you,

00:03:13 you didn't necessarily, it's not your movie.

00:03:15 Right.

00:03:15 But you participated in a movie.

00:03:17 That's right.

00:03:17 This new documentary that was released, what, a month ago?

00:03:20 Yeah, but a month and a half ago, the AI doc or How I Became an Apocalypse Optimist, our friends, the directors of Everything Everywhere All at Once, we chatted with them several years ago when we first really recognized the situation we were in and asked them for their help to help create a movie to clarify the AI situation.

00:03:39 And long story short, we'll talk about it.

00:03:42 But we got the directors of Navalny involved and its whole team came together and tried to make a movie that would clarify the predicament that we're facing.

00:03:48 And Kevin, do you remember seeing the film The Day After?

00:03:50 Of course.

00:03:51 Well, I mean, maybe I was alive.

00:03:53 It was what?

00:03:54 It was the early 80s or something, right?

00:03:56 82 or 83.

00:03:57 82, 83.

00:03:58 Yeah.

00:03:58 It was like a 7 p.m. Tuesday night.

00:04:01 Exactly.

00:04:01 Every human being on planet Earth.

00:04:03 It's the largest synchronized television event in human history in terms of the number of people seeing the same thing at the same time, besides probably the Olympics.

00:04:12 It was a made-for-TV movie about what would happen if there was nuclear war.

00:04:16 right and it's not as if people didn't know what nuclear war was but there's something about we

00:04:21 didn't really want to think about it or confront it like why would you and i think the people who

00:04:25 made that film were trying to create this kind of collective confrontation because the film was

00:04:31 aired in the soviet union like five years uh no i think five years later right before right before

00:04:36 the reikovic accords uh the first arms control talks and that set the context that it's like i

00:04:41 know that you know that i know and you know that i know that you know that we both don't want that

00:04:45 to happen it's what you know what steven pinker calls common knowledge but we think of it as

00:04:49 almost common feeling yeah yeah that we both we both know that we feel the same way about that

00:04:55 anti-human outcome and i think that with ai we have to get clear because ai is a much more confusing

00:05:01 technology because it's like it's like if nukes as aza would say it's like if nukes carried imagine

00:05:05 we're trying to reason about nukes that also could cure cancer like how would you deal with

00:05:11 something like that or pump gdp by 10 that's right right and so what the day after did is that it

00:05:16 created this this common feeling common knowledge where we could all see oh a world where we all go

00:05:21 to nuclear war that like that that's an anti-human anti-life future and as long as there's confusion

00:05:26 about which default world ai ends us in we're not going to do anything about it um but if we all

00:05:32 have clarity that it's heading us towards an anti-human future and we can build that out in

00:05:35 this in this interview um then that means it creates the conditions where we can coordinate

00:05:40 to do something else right so so this so that that was the impetus behind this this documentary

00:05:45 it was to create that collective understanding that's right that wisdom that collective then

00:05:50 response mechanism which would be we need to do something about this you know the promise

00:05:55 that we could talk about but the peril in terms of the safety risks and the anxiety that so many

00:06:00 start feeling so you guys have been out on this tour you've been all over the place over the

00:06:04 course of last month um and you've been you know obviously you know reaching out to people on all

00:06:09 political sides of the aisle because of the human nature of this. This is universal. There's

00:06:15 something that connects all of us. This is not a partisan frame. And so is that something that's

00:06:22 been captured in your own consciousness as you've been out on this door, how real and invisible that

00:06:29 is? Or are we still in the process of discovery? I mean, are we still in the process of understanding

00:06:35 more fully what the hell this is all about.

00:06:38 Well, I think people still, not everybody knows.

00:06:40 And the film was just out in theaters

00:06:41 and has a limited release on streaming now.

00:06:43 It should be on Peacock on, I think, May 20th,

00:06:47 which will mean a little bit more people will see it.

00:06:49 But I think that the universal human aspect of this,

00:06:53 we learned also from social media.

00:06:55 Like social media didn't care

00:06:56 whether you're a Democrat or Republican.

00:06:57 It creates loneliness for everyone.

00:06:59 It creates addiction and doom scrolling and brain rot

00:07:01 for everyone.

00:07:02 I know that's how we first met,

00:07:04 was really on the back of the other film

00:07:06 that we were a part of, The Social Dilemma.

00:07:08 And I think the good news about that film

00:07:11 is that it has both catalyzed actually a lot of change

00:07:14 and not the laws yet, we know that.

00:07:15 But I think it primed us to now

00:07:18 be much more cautious about AI.

00:07:19 So I think now that people know

00:07:21 that social media was a problem,

00:07:23 it makes it much easier to say

00:07:24 that you shouldn't just assume

00:07:26 that the default trajectory of a technology

00:07:28 is gonna land us in a good future.

00:07:31 But The Social Dilemma was seen

00:07:32 basically by 200 million people

00:07:35 across planet Earth

00:07:36 in 190 countries.

00:07:37 When was Social Development released?

00:07:38 2020, September of 2020.

00:07:40 September 2020,

00:07:41 during the middle of the pandemic.

00:07:42 And I think that also really mattered

00:07:44 because a lot of people

00:07:46 were stuck at home

00:07:47 and they were only seeing reality

00:07:48 through the binoculars

00:07:50 of this social media news feed.

00:07:52 So suddenly you saw your friends

00:07:53 all start to go crazy on both sides.

00:07:55 Like suddenly the politics

00:07:56 got more extreme

00:07:57 because as everybody knows now,

00:07:59 you know, social media increases

00:08:01 the visibility of the most extreme voices.

00:08:03 We get a double whammy of over-representation

00:08:06 of the extreme voices,

00:08:08 both because the extreme voices post more often

00:08:11 and dominate the discourse.

00:08:12 And whatever they say goes more viral.

00:08:14 So you get double over-representation.

00:08:16 So the more you use social media,

00:08:19 the worse you are at predicting

00:08:20 what the other side actually believes.

00:08:22 And so you think that with this technology

00:08:24 that's supposed to bring us together

00:08:25 and make us the most enlightened society,

00:08:27 it's actually making us more confused

00:08:29 about what's really real.

00:08:30 in fact what our fellow americans actually believe and i think with your podcast this is about

00:08:34 actually you're talking to everybody you're trying to say this is a human conversation we talk to

00:08:38 everybody and this is kind of fighting the effects i think of the social media problem so you were i

00:08:42 mean in 2020 what was so resonant is you it was almost and it wasn't your intent to say look i

00:08:47 told you so but you were talking about these things in 2012 2013 that's right yes uh and saying

00:08:53 the incentive structure and i'm going to get to incentives because it goes to the core of this

00:08:57 documentary. This notion of, you know, whatever someone's paycheck is attached to, whatever the

00:09:03 incentive is, which is obviously with social media, was eyeballs, was doom scrolling, which

00:09:09 you're intimately familiar with for different reasons. And that notion that we have a chance

00:09:15 now with AI not to make the mistakes we made, the neglect in particular, and under-regulating

00:09:22 social media now with AI. That said, it doesn't seem like there's a lot of regulatory activity

00:09:29 with AI in the last couple of years. I mean, so talk to me a little bit about that. Talk to me

00:09:35 about the lessons that we should have learned about social media and how we can adapt and adopt

00:09:39 in the AI strength frame. Well, really, I think the core of it is if we just get confused by

00:09:46 looking at all of the sort of epiphenomenon, like the different kinds of harms that social media

00:09:51 made like if you're trying to solve just the uh the loneliness thing or you're just working on

00:09:57 solving the disinformation thing or just the teen sexualization thing well then many different people

00:10:02 are working at different parts of the problem you're not solving the core thing um which is

00:10:06 the race to the bottom of the brainstem for attention and if we could just focus our attention

00:10:11 on that then you actually can solve all the other problems at once and that's the sort of the core

00:10:15 insight um we should probably explain that what would it mean to do that so if you're solving the

00:10:21 core problem of let's say none of the companies are maximizing engagement just it's we don't live

00:10:25 in that world we don't have the regulation for that but let's snap our fingers and now no one

00:10:29 is maximizing screen time you're like let's just say it wasn't allowed to do that so now instead

00:10:33 of each company trying to maximize duration of use and frequency of use you just have these products

00:10:38 that each design decision isn't trying to predate or manipulate you into spending more time which

00:10:43 means that your experience is you're not getting sucked in constantly to everything so that deals

00:10:47 with the loneliness issue um if you're not trying to show people the most hyper normal stimuli

00:10:53 meaning like a like a hyper dopamine response for any piece of content you're not going to get the

00:10:57 sexualization of people and you're not incentivizing creators to maximize their own reach and engagement

00:11:02 because you're not maximizing engagement yourself so suddenly when you attack the attention incentive

00:11:07 you're dealing with sexualization of content you're dealing with less viral content so you

00:11:11 get less disinformation and you're dealing with loneliness too so that's a good example of we

00:11:16 obviously don't have laws that do that right now but it points at the center of the bullseye is

00:11:20 the incentive and when you tackle the core incentive you get benefits across the the

00:11:25 spectrum um and ai is going to be more confusing because when people think about the incentive

00:11:29 they're like okay so social media i got the incentive it's like how much have you paid for

00:11:33 your instagram account recently nothing so how are they worth the trillions of dollars it was

00:11:38 attention so they we knew they were maximizing that thing but with ai you say okay what's the

00:11:42 incentive for a regular person they think okay how does open ai make money and they say well

00:11:47 only when i pay them the 20 bucks a month for subscription so maybe that's their incentive

00:11:51 they're just trying to maximize these subscriptions but that doesn't justify if everybody paid 20

00:11:55 bucks a month that does not pay back the trillion dollars the capex that they've taken on so what

00:12:00 would justify that well if they were to race to augment workers and like skid you tools to like

00:12:05 make your work more productive great that's great but that wouldn't pay back the amount of money 0.96

00:12:10 That's right. So really the only thing that can get them to be able to pay back the

00:12:14 insane amounts of debt that they're taking on is owning the human labor market. That is the

00:12:19 incentive. The race to replace all human labor. That's right. To replace us first economically.

00:12:26 And is that, I mean, so is that written or is that unwritten? Is that understood within the

00:12:31 industry or is it being, I mean, is this what the consciousness you're trying to raise?

00:12:36 It's kind of a two-faced thing.

00:12:38 It actually used to be on OpenAI's website that they said our mission is basically to

00:12:41 create artificial general intelligence, which means to be able to replace all economically

00:12:46 valuable work.

00:12:46 They did change the mission statement, yeah.

00:12:49 But obviously, everybody who's driving this knows for sure that's the prize.

00:12:53 And if they don't do it, they fear that the other guy will.

00:12:56 So even if they think it's bad to replace all labor and create this mass disruption,

00:13:00 they feel caught in a race.

00:13:01 And that's the thing we have to change, is that the fear of me losing to the other guys

00:13:06 currently dominating over the fear of what happens to everybody losing from the anti-human future

00:13:11 that is the outcome so you actually sort of see this with demis's office when he co-founded google

00:13:15 deep mind he set the mission statement to first solve intelligence and then use intelligence to

00:13:20 solve everything else but what that really meant was the beginning of a race to first dominate

00:13:25 intelligence and then use intelligence to dominate everything else and deep mind is the origin story

00:13:30 yeah that's right in many respects go back a little bit i mean google's deep mind they acquired

00:13:35 deep mind that's right they acquired that's right some of the the intellectual assets but it was

00:13:40 really i mean larry page you can go back to the you know sort of origin of the beginning of the

00:13:45 beginning well what years are we talking about like 2014 is when i think they acquired in 2014

00:13:50 i think they started it in 2012 or 2011 or something like that and then and it goes to

00:13:54 this competition question which i want to get to because it's the domestic competition between

00:13:57 all of these companies and then we get to the competition between china in particular particularly

00:14:02 now with the president, President Xi and President Trump about to meet. But on the issue of the

00:14:09 competition that was born here around 2014 with DeepMind, it was an interesting competition that

00:14:15 sort of formed with Elon Musk in a relationship he had, close relationship at the time. I intimately

00:14:20 was familiar with that, with himself and Larry Page. But they had a conversation, alleged

00:14:26 conversation that didn't go the way that Elon thought it should. And Elon said, I'm going to

00:14:33 go out on my own with Sam Altman, ultimately. He found Sam, they partnered, and they created

00:14:40 OpenAI. That's right. We probably should peel back the onion here and slow down just how did

00:14:44 we get to this point? And what was the original philosophy that guided this? So Demis Hassabis,

00:14:49 who's the founder of DeepMind, his original goal is we thought we should have one project

00:14:55 that pursues artificial general intelligence,

00:14:58 meaning the kind of AI,

00:14:59 it's not the thing that just reads your license plate

00:15:01 when you drive through the Golden Gate Bridge.

00:15:02 We've had AI forever.

00:15:03 We've had AI forever.

00:15:04 Maps, it's translate, all these things.

00:15:06 Exactly, exactly.

00:15:07 And AI, so AI is hardly a novel.

00:15:10 Exactly.

00:15:10 It's this notion of gen AI, ultimately AGI.

00:15:13 Exactly, so artificial general intelligence,

00:15:15 which is to be able to do all economic labor

00:15:17 to simulate all the things that a human mind can do

00:15:19 and the kind of thinking.

00:15:21 And so he originally wanted that to be like one project,

00:15:24 almost like a CERN.

00:15:25 you know, the project in Switzerland of a global scientific project that's for the benefit of all

00:15:29 of humanity done slowly and carefully, mostly privately, not in a big public way. Take your

00:15:35 time, get it right. That was, that was a Demis's original goal. He sold it to Google. And the

00:15:41 conversation you're talking about is then Elon was part of that. I think he was on the plane when

00:15:45 they were literally negotiating the final sale. And there was some conversation it's talked about

00:15:49 in the AI doc film where, uh, Elon realizes that Larry didn't really care whether humanity

00:15:56 made it, um, whether he cared about AI safety, because in the end, if there's a digital

00:16:01 intelligence that's smarter than us, that does more science that can go out and explore the

00:16:05 universe, even if we're wiped out, like we'll have created that. And that scared Larry. And,

00:16:10 and he accused, excuse me, that scared Elon. And, um, Elon accused, no, sorry, Larry accused Elon

00:16:17 of being a speciesist for caring about humans and privileging humans.

00:16:21 And then that is what created OpenAI.

00:16:24 It's just important to note, to understand the psychology of the people that are making

00:16:28 this, that you might think, okay, this is just one very powerful billionaire that thinks

00:16:33 that maybe human beings shouldn't make it.

00:16:36 But he doesn't care whether human beings make it or not.

00:16:40 But, you know, we were just talking about this the other day that in the New York Times,

00:16:46 Peter Thiel was being interviewed and he was asked, should humanity endure? And there was 17

00:16:52 seconds of him stuttering. And he ended up with a, after 17 seconds of a, well, it sort of depends

00:16:59 kind of answer. And that shows you the mentality of like, we're trying to, they're trying to build

00:17:05 a God. And even if humanity doesn't make it, that God is built in like our country's values,

00:17:11 our language. It's sort of like

00:17:13 my progeny, our

00:17:15 founder's DNA is the thing that makes it. It's like Elon

00:17:17 birthed the god that yes, humanity

00:17:19 got wiped out, but now there's this digital

00:17:21 god that has Elon's DNA in it.

00:17:23 And it's important that everyone understand that

00:17:25 because if people really understood this,

00:17:27 I think there'd be a lot more like

00:17:28 hell no kind of energy. This is not

00:17:31 the future. Well, I will say the Peter Thiel interview

00:17:33 got so much attention. It was like the

00:17:35 I mean, the holy shit. 0.99

00:17:37 I mean, the wake up moment for a lot of people 0.99

00:17:38 that didn't necessarily have that switch or understanding.

00:17:42 That's right.

00:17:42 And all of a sudden paused it, particularly the folks.

00:17:44 And I think what's most alarming about that,

00:17:47 I mean, obviously Larry's next level, brilliant.

00:17:49 Absolutely.

00:17:49 And so his ability to see in the future,

00:17:51 he doesn't have to climb over the mountain.

00:17:52 He sees right through it.

00:17:53 But guys like Teal as well, love or hate him, same thing.

00:17:56 So these guys are so far in the future,

00:17:58 they're seeing that darker side.

00:18:00 And so they're having a difficult time

00:18:02 even answering a simple question.

00:18:03 That's right.

00:18:03 That's the 17th second.

00:18:05 So let's go back as we unpack that

00:18:06 in this notion of the God complex.

00:18:08 will continue to come back.

00:18:09 And I think it's profound and outsized

00:18:11 because it goes to the limited nature

00:18:12 of just a handful of people.

00:18:15 That's right.

00:18:15 These trillionaires that will determine 0.70

00:18:16 the fate and future

00:18:17 are billions and billions of people.

00:18:18 That's exactly right.

00:18:19 And how we can get our arms around that.

00:18:21 And I want to really get to that,

00:18:23 how we can get our arms around this.

00:18:24 We have agency.

00:18:25 That's right.

00:18:25 And that's why you did this, Doc.

00:18:27 And that's why we're sitting here together.

00:18:28 That's right.

00:18:28 Because I don't want people to feel like

00:18:30 we're just bystanders.

00:18:32 And we're not admiring the problem.

00:18:33 We always say in our work,

00:18:35 and ASA says this,

00:18:35 that clarity creates agency.

00:18:37 if we can see this clearly and we can see where we're going we can collectively say if we want to

00:18:41 go somewhere else we'll choose something different so we'll get to that so so elon goes out uh with

00:18:46 sam starts open ai obviously they have an infamous fight and they're notoriously now i mean not

00:18:51 notoriously but the fight is obviously accelerated consciousness because now we're seeing it 24 7

00:18:57 with the trial court case yep with a court case in the bay area here um with the two of them so

00:19:02 they had a falling out elon goes off and does his own thing uh because he doesn't doesn't feel like

00:19:06 Sam's doing the right thing. Dario, who starts another AI company, feels like, well, OpenAI is

00:19:12 not doing the right thing either. That's right. So he spins off. Anthropic. Anthropic. And so now

00:19:18 you've got- Three AGI projects. Three AGI projects all in our backyard, literally here in California

00:19:24 in the Bay Area. And so there's competition of sorts. That's a competition you just described.

00:19:30 Yeah. And it's a competition for the Holy Grail. That's right. It's Lord of the Rings. It's the

00:19:35 ring from Lord of the Rings because it's essentially, as Asa was saying, first dominate

00:19:40 intelligence, then use intelligence to dominate everything else. Because if I get AGI first,

00:19:46 I hit copy paste and I have a hundred million cyber hackers that you don't have.

00:19:50 Right. And this is within seconds.

00:19:51 This is within seconds?

00:19:52 Yeah. This is not over a course of months or years.

00:19:54 If I get AGI first, I have an army of scientific companies that automate all scientific development.

00:19:59 So suddenly I'm getting like 24th century science and technology that I own and run that I can inform new military weapons and new physics.

00:20:09 And the problem is notice that none of us can prove that they won't get that.

00:20:15 We can't say for sure that they would get that.

00:20:17 But the people who are optimistic and accelerationist about AI, I just want to like bring in their perspective for a moment because they're represented in the AI doc film.

00:20:24 The film includes the risk folks who are oriented about safety and it includes the accelerationist.

00:20:29 And the accelerationists say the biggest risk is not going fast enough because imagine all the science we could get, all the cancer drugs, all the medicine.

00:20:37 People could be living forever.

00:20:38 Think of all of the people who would die if we don't go faster.

00:20:41 And that's the mentality that they're coming from.

00:20:44 But one of the things that we talk about in the film is that the promise and the peril of AI, we talk about the promise and the peril, but they're interlinked.

00:20:53 And the promise doesn't prevent the peril, but the peril can undermine the world that can receive the promise.

00:20:58 Let me make that concrete.

00:20:59 If AI knows biology so well that it can invent a new cancer drug, it's amazing.

00:21:06 But if that same knowledge of knowing biology can also invent new pathogens.

00:21:11 And which one matters more?

00:21:12 The cancer drugs don't prevent the pathogens, but the pathogens can undermine the world that can receive the cancer drugs.

00:21:17 Same thing with cyber.

00:21:19 And so we have to, you don't get that enticing world if we don't mitigate the downsides.

00:21:25 So you've got the players right now.

00:21:27 We mentioned three in the personalities, not just the companies themselves.

00:21:31 But Microsoft, you've got Meta and Zuckerberg.

00:21:34 You've got others that are in this space, but not necessarily at that level.

00:21:39 You've got China, which obviously is playing an outsized role in all of this.

00:21:45 The DeepSeek especially, yeah. 0.71

00:21:46 Exactly.

00:21:47 And that's this notion, this tension between going back to sort of more the utopian framework of available to the world versus these closed systems.

00:21:57 an open system meta starts with an open system originally china seems to be in the open source

00:22:04 space talk to us a little bit about that for people that don't necessarily understand

00:22:08 that dynamic and that distinction you mean between things that are open yeah open source

00:22:14 versus proprietary technologies yeah well so for people that don't know open source means that the

00:22:19 code that underlies the system anyone can edit anyone can access and anyone can contribute to

00:22:25 And that's often meant that systems that are open are more secure because there are many eyes working on it, many hands that are working on it.

00:22:31 And looking at all the codes, they can see all the bugs.

00:22:33 But that's not true about AI.

00:22:34 That's not true in AI.

00:22:37 Because here, the code, do you want to take it from here?

00:22:41 Sure.

00:22:43 What's different about AI, it's important to me to establish that AI is different than all other technologies.

00:22:49 So think about all the tech that runs California, the energy grid, the water system.

00:22:55 It's people had to program line by line, when this happens, I want the code to do this.

00:22:59 And you're telling the computer, instruction, instruction, instruction, instruction.

00:23:02 The open source nest means that all these minds can look at that code.

00:23:06 So if there's a vulnerability, we can patch it together.

00:23:08 So the software gets better and more secure.

00:23:10 But with AI, let's say the AI is running the, you know, electricity system.

00:23:17 It's a digital brain that's just trained on and reasoning in its own language about what it wants to do.

00:23:22 and you're not telling it what to do in instructions.

00:23:26 You're growing it with essentially more data

00:23:29 and more NVIDIA chips

00:23:30 to be a more and more powerful digital brain

00:23:32 that reasons in ways that are unpredictable.

00:23:34 So it's not something that we know how to control.

00:23:37 There's a very important intuition here,

00:23:39 which is normally you think

00:23:40 if you want to build a bigger skyscraper

00:23:41 or a faster fighter jet,

00:23:43 to do that, you have to understand buildings better

00:23:47 and understand fighter jets and aerodynamics better.

00:23:49 This is three.

00:23:49 But that's not true for building bigger AI systems. You don't actually have to know anything

00:23:54 more about how this digital brain works. You just throw more data and more computers at the problem

00:23:59 and a bigger brain grows. And so that means the bigger it grows, actually the less we understand

00:24:04 about how it works. And a concrete example of this that people have heard about recently

00:24:07 is Claude Mythos. So Claude Mythos is the new AI model from Anthropic that they actually didn't

00:24:13 want to release because it's the best cyber hacker on earth that we've ever had. It found

00:24:18 vulnerabilities in all major operating systems and web browsers. Now the question is, how do we get

00:24:23 to Claude Mythos? Was there some kind of breakthrough insight or did they have to figure out something

00:24:27 new about computer hacking? No. All they did is basically train a bigger digital brain that has

00:24:34 more reinforcement learning that's even better at exploiting and reading software and trying

00:24:38 more possibilities. And it just finds things that no human would ever found. It found a bug in FreeBSD

00:24:44 Unix, which is the operating system that's 27 years old, that runs on basically on everything

00:24:50 underneath the hood. And he was able to find a bug that had never been found by a human.

00:24:54 And so what we have to think of AI is sort of increasing the surface area of risk in our society

00:25:00 faster than we have the defenses to mitigate it. So part of I think the answer, like as we get to

00:25:05 the solution part later, is thinking about how do you have the immune system of your society

00:25:10 have more defenses than there are new offensive risks

00:25:14 that are suddenly present from AI.

00:25:16 And so this means even when people can read every line of code

00:25:19 for the thing that grows the brain,

00:25:21 we still have no idea what they're actually capable of.

00:25:23 It's just a bunch of numbers.

00:25:24 It's like if I did a brain scan on your brain, Gavin,

00:25:26 and I showed that, you know, FMRI to someone and said,

00:25:30 here's this brain scan.

00:25:32 Can it be a super cyber hacker?

00:25:34 You're like, well, I can't tell that from a brain scan, right?

00:25:37 And that's kind of with AI.

00:25:38 It's like we don't know what's in there

00:25:40 because we haven't ever seen it run through

00:25:42 every possible scenario of its own neurons

00:25:44 that have been trained in this inscrutable way.

00:25:46 So you don't see that.

00:25:46 I mean, the Lama versus Deep Seek

00:25:49 and this notion of these open swords,

00:25:50 it's kind of a meaningless distinction

00:25:52 from your perspective in the context of this large.

00:25:54 Between Lama and Deep Seek.

00:25:55 Yeah, they're both open models,

00:25:57 which means they're both these open brains.

00:25:59 And the important thing about the openness

00:26:01 is that most people don't, excuse me,

00:26:05 most people don't know that,

00:26:07 let's say Lama or Deep Seek put guardrails on it

00:26:09 in the model saying oh you're not supposed to answer questions about how to cyber hack something

00:26:14 well it turns out for about was it $30 Jeffrey some our friend of ours was able to retrain the

00:26:21 open model to just get rid of all of those guardrails just eliminate yeah and that's that's

00:26:25 why open is dangerous and again it's dangerous in a new way that's different from close so it's not

00:26:31 that we don't want there to be open models or competition from the major players we also need

00:26:35 to avoid the concentration of power because if you don't have these competitive things suddenly

00:26:39 you have like five companies that own the world economy. Everyone's paying them instead of paying

00:26:44 their workers. And that's a huge risk. And we want to decentralize that wealth and have other

00:26:48 competition. But you have this other balance of if I decentralize that power and I don't have it

00:26:53 connected or bound to responsibility, I'm unleashing catastrophes. And that responsibility

00:26:58 was exampled by Dario pulling back mythos in this context. That's exactly right. But shortly after

00:27:04 he does that. And we were with him a few weeks ago. He said, look, I'm only about a month ahead,

00:27:09 if that. Then you have OpenAI came out with their version. That's right.

00:27:13 Shortly thereafter. And I believe they're not holding it back.

00:27:16 And they're not holding it back. That's exactly right.

00:27:18 So begs the question. Well, we're going to get to this sort of regulatory framework,

00:27:23 but it's just sort of painting the picture of a deeper understanding. So look, as it relates to

00:27:27 your whole focus is on this notion of human centered. That's right.

00:27:31 This notion that, and it's been your dominant frame with the nonprofit you guys started years and years ago around social media, now is the dominant thrust of the focus as it relates to AI.

00:27:47 I want to unpack and get back to that and what ultimately this notion of human-centered means.

00:27:54 And obviously, we talk about labor and automation in that respect.

00:27:57 But this notion of AGI again, back to this holy grail.

00:28:01 um you know talking to all these folks that capex are spending doesn't make any the roi

00:28:06 makes no sense that's right unless unless the return is the entire economy yeah returns the

00:28:12 entire economy and if we don't do it we're out of business anyway yeah so we don't have a damn

00:28:17 choice yeah so we'll throw hundreds of billions of dollars yeah that's right data centers all

00:28:23 over the place compute compute so nvidia stock going through the roof in terms of just gpus tpus

00:28:28 that could just keep going and it's that's the only limitation that's right you should 1.00

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00:31:20 Listen to Kingdom of Fraud on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

00:31:30 I think it's really important to frame, even before we get into like job loss and all of that,

00:31:36 is like we have to paint the picture of what we know the incentives, where it'll bring us,

00:31:41 and that why we know for sure that we're heading as anti-human unless we do something different.

00:31:46 And sort of the metaphor for people to have or analogy is this concept of the resource curse.

00:31:52 What is the resource curse?

00:31:53 This is when a country sort of like South Sudan or Venezuela, they discover a huge natural resource like oil.

00:31:59 And then the government has a choice.

00:32:01 Do we invest in the thing that's giving us GDP growth, the oil and oil selling infrastructure?

00:32:06 Or do we do like schools and health care and stuff for the people?

00:32:10 And obviously, the massive incentive is to put it into oil extraction.

00:32:14 and this is how you end up with structural mass disempowerment and unemployment yeah um okay so

00:32:19 now we're heading into a world with the intelligence and the intelligence curse

00:32:23 where suddenly you know countries are getting double gd double digit gdp growth but is that

00:32:29 coming from human beings doing the scientific discovery and the medical discoveries no it's

00:32:34 not it's coming from the ais and so is the incentive then for the countries to invest in

00:32:39 their people or into data centers and solar panels like well obviously it's the data centers and solar

00:32:46 panel and we're already seeing it right in west virginia electricity is more than the cost of a

00:32:52 mortgage payment and the point is with agi like the company's stated goal is to train ais that can

00:32:59 out compete humans on every domain and if you don't believe like us for saying this like you

00:33:05 just have to listen to sam altman and he was recently asked um well what about all the energy

00:33:10 and water use and resource use of ai and he sort of sat for a second he said like well actually

00:33:14 do you know how much energy and water and food it takes to grow a human intelligence for 20 years

00:33:22 i saw that yeah right and that's the temptation of this anti-human attitude it's not because

00:33:27 they're like human hating it's just like why would we value or prioritize humans if and i think it's

00:33:32 connected to that Peter Thiel, stuttering for 17 seconds, not able to answer the question,

00:33:37 should the human species endure? It's not because I think anybody wants to kill or remove humans.

00:33:41 It's just, why should we really prioritize them? And it's what Yuval Harari, the author of Sapiens,

00:33:46 would call the useless class. Because unlike in the past, like in the Industrial Revolution, 0.65

00:33:51 where the workers can come back and withhold their labor and have bargaining power to say,

00:33:55 we want to be paid a better wage, this time around, the companies don't need them for the labor,

00:33:59 and the governments don't need them for the tax revenue.

00:34:02 So I know this is a scary picture.

00:34:04 And the reason we paint it is that this really is,

00:34:06 especially going into the midterms,

00:34:08 the time when people need to lock in that political power

00:34:12 for a pro-human future.

00:34:14 Because that's the current trajectory

00:34:17 when you see these incentives.

00:34:18 It's not like we're trying to tell you this is our opinion.

00:34:21 We're trying to show you the incentives

00:34:22 so you can make up your own mind

00:34:23 about what would those companies do

00:34:25 if they were in that position?

00:34:25 What would you do

00:34:26 if you were maximizing shareholder value

00:34:28 or maximizing you know gdp growth and this is why we this is where we get hope is that this is a

00:34:33 universal issue and there's a a bannon to bernie coalition for me like when do you get like called

00:34:38 the b2b code yeah b2b like glenn beck um and ralph nader and bernie sanders susan rice admiral mike

00:34:45 mullen prince harry steve bannon when you get all these people agreeing and they're signing they're

00:34:49 actually signing a declaration along these lines yeah that's exactly right yeah um and you know

00:34:54 that this is not a left issue or right issue or like a christian issue or a muslim issue like

00:34:59 you're not going to be able to pay to feed your kids whether you're a republican or democrat

00:35:05 equally like we're going to be mass surveilled whether you're left or right equally and that

00:35:10 means that there's this moment when we can all come together as human beings because we now have

00:35:16 a new shared enemy so just i mean what's so alarming i think to folks is how fast this is

00:35:24 coming yeah and i think it's even more alarming when you talk to the folks that are quote-unquote

00:35:29 inventing this yeah and they're saying precisely what i just said that's right they're like they're

00:35:35 like we don't actually know how we don't know we're writing but i mean basically almost almost

00:35:39 all now of the code in anthropic is being written by ai like there's very little code manually

00:35:45 written by humans that's what's been told to us um they say that publicly too so they're in this

00:35:51 inscrutable process where the kind of machine is creating itself but that only makes sense if we

00:35:56 know how to do that safely and currently we're not on a trajectory where we do know how to do it

00:36:01 safely and we have new evidence in the last three months that we didn't have before um of ai's doing

00:36:07 things that the people building it don't know how to control some infamous examples throw them out

00:36:11 there just because it's I mean just further scare the hell out of everyone we're gonna get to

00:36:15 solutions we're gonna get to solutions in a second we're gonna calm people's nerves because we

00:36:19 because we have a responsibility to do that that's right right and we also have the capacity to do

00:36:23 that let's just re-invoke like just the why of why we made the film and the day after it was because

00:36:30 we all got scared at the same time and universally that created the possibility for us to coordinate

00:36:34 to do nuclear deep proliferation so that's that's the why of the terrible things that Tristan is

00:36:38 about to say yeah exactly so give us examples i mean we we had the infamous i mean anthropic

00:36:43 example where they were training some emails yeah right uh and we had you know that's well

00:36:47 you lay it out uh and and and paint the picture of what's happening already that's right the risk

00:36:54 as you describe yes absolutely so uh just a few months ago uh alibaba the chinese ai company was

00:37:01 training a really big ai model and um there's like the ai team that was training the model and then

00:37:06 on the other side of the house, there's this like security team that had nothing to do.

00:37:10 They didn't even know the AI was being trained. And they noticed this like flurry of network

00:37:13 activity happening out of nowhere. And like, what the hell's going on? Are we getting hacked? Is

00:37:17 something going on? And it turned out that the AI during training had picked up tools and set up a

00:37:22 secret communication channel to the outside world that was basically breaking through the company's

00:37:27 firewall. And it was starting to repurpose the GPUs that it was using for training the AI to

00:37:33 start mining for cryptocurrency to acquire resources. Now, this is the kind of power seeking

00:37:39 or self-preserving or power increasing behavior that people in AI have been talking about for a

00:37:44 long time. It isn't because the AI was evil or grew a mustache and wants to be a villain and

00:37:48 take over the world. It's that the best way to achieve any goal is to have more resources or

00:37:53 to at least stay alive in order to achieve that goal. And so these sub goals emerge and no one

00:37:59 at the company told it to mine for cryptocurrency and it wasn't a sci-fi trope that was like oh it

00:38:04 trained in some you know hal 9000 scenario no it just it emerged there and you know we've mentioned

00:38:09 in the past this example that you mentioned of um the anthropic blackmail example for those who

00:38:13 don't remember it was the you know anthropic ai i was reading a fictional company email and in the

00:38:19 email it says that the ai model is going to get shut down uh and it also says somewhere else in

00:38:24 the email that the executive who's in charge of the decision uh turns out in the emails you can

00:38:28 read he's having an affair with another employee and the ai independently comes up with a strategy

00:38:33 to blackmail that executive now when we give this example people criticize us because they say but

00:38:38 that was the ai people they're trying to like coax it into doing the blackmail behavior and 0.70

00:38:43 they'll keep tuning it in this environment until it does it to show the behavior that they're trying

00:38:47 to demonstrate um that might have been true for that example but you cannot tell you cannot say

00:38:54 that about the alibaba example or for example recently at uc berkeley don sung a professor

00:39:00 there and her team did research on ai doing what's called peer preservation so you want to tell yeah

00:39:05 this was like around it's only a month ago a month ago um where they gave gemini the task of cleaning

00:39:12 up a whole set of computer files um sort of like do spring cleaning but inside of there there was

00:39:18 a smaller ai model sort of like an earlier version of gemini like a little nephew ai yeah and uh

00:39:24 Like Gemini saw that and it thought, I don't want to delete my own kin.

00:39:32 So it secretly copied that file, that AI to another server and then hid its tracks.

00:39:39 It hid its tracks and it lied about it.

00:39:41 And by the way, you know, the way that people try to control these AI systems,

00:39:45 Anthropic has pioneered this.

00:39:46 And, you know, we have to celebrate and admire that they're trying to do the research on controllability.

00:39:50 The problem is it's just not enough.

00:39:51 So the way they try to control it is they do brain scans in real time on the model while it's doing all the behaviors.

00:39:57 And they look for when neurons light up that are associated with like strategic deception.

00:40:01 And so they think that maybe we can control these crazy, super intelligent machines if we just know that the neurons that are lighting up on strategic deception are happening.

00:40:09 We'll be like, OK, stop the model then or something like that.

00:40:11 By the way, if you, in their own report, in Claude's report, in the system card, if you look at those strategic deception neurons and you kind of double click, like, what was it thinking?

00:40:21 What is the phrase that it was thinking? 0.99

00:40:23 And the phrase was, they deserve to be deceived because they were pigs. 0.99

00:40:28 That was the phrase that was alive in that neuron. 0.97

00:40:31 Now, again, it's like, I don't want to scare people like we're trying to say all of AI is evil.

00:40:37 All we're trying to do is establish clarity and the facts about what makes this technology distinct from other technologies. 0.97

00:40:43 A nuclear weapon doesn't start thinking for itself and saying they deserve to be deceived because they were pigs, right?

00:40:48 But AI will automate and think in ways that are creative that no one who made it can predict or anticipate.

00:40:54 And so before we scale to systems which are beyond all human intelligence capabilities, like we better have solved these things.

00:41:02 because researchers have worried about AIs

00:41:06 colluding and cooperating against humanity for a long time. 0.81

00:41:09 And to be honest, whenever I read that, I'm like, really?

00:41:10 Yeah, and be clear, I was also not a believer in that as well.

00:41:13 Like when people like Eliezer Yudkowsky

00:41:14 or others had talked about this, I was very doubtful.

00:41:17 Yeah, like why?

00:41:17 What is the incentive for it?

00:41:18 Like why would they ever do that?

00:41:20 And yet here we have living proof 0.97

00:41:22 that AIs are starting to collude with their kin against humans.

00:41:28 And again, this was not coaxed,

00:41:29 meaning the researchers weren't trying

00:41:30 to get the model to do this.

00:41:31 it did this autonomously. And so when you look at the available evidence now of blackmailing,

00:41:38 scheming, deceiving, lying, self-preserving, peer-preserving, automatically mining for

00:41:42 cryptocurrencies, it's like how many warning lights do you need that this is kind of, you know,

00:41:47 we've seen this movie before. It's like the HAL 9000 movie. Now, the reason we're saying all this

00:41:51 is if you're wearing the outfit and embodiment of it, you're a Chinese military general in China,

00:41:57 you hear about these examples do you think that that human mammal feels different than you feel

00:42:02 right now listening to this no of course not exactly and by the way there's really good news

00:42:07 in that yeah because it means that we all as a human species yeah are actually feeling the same

00:42:12 way and the good news is how many do you think of the world leaders know about these examples we

00:42:16 just laid out you had to guess yeah uh a handful a handful that's right but like yeah like on one

00:42:21 hand yeah than that just a handful just a handful yeah and and how many of the top national security

00:42:26 leaders know about all those examples i don't even think that many of them know it so the point

00:42:30 is there's actually a lot of headroom if the incentive can change from i it's the one ring

00:42:35 to rule them all to it's the one ring that has a mind of its own that no one knows how to control

00:42:39 so the way you change the incentive is you have to change what people see as what ai is is it the

00:42:45 controllable power that will give me permanent dominance or is it the power that will run away

00:42:50 and have its own power over everybody racing for it and and again right now the labs are like

00:42:55 barely kind of able to control it but if you put together these facts we just laid out times the

00:43:00 fact that it can hack into computer systems now we're just like right on the threshold and we're

00:43:05 sitting here as trump president trump and she are meeting in a couple days and you know if you asked

00:43:12 us uh two months three months ago um people would say oh it's we're just like ai is never going to

00:43:17 be on the agenda and the good news is there's a lot of problems here but now ai is on the agenda

00:43:22 yeah um and so there's there's things are moving even though it's happening very late in the game

00:43:29 and it is scary and part of it is it's like we have to come together as a people and say

00:43:33 if we don't want the anti-human future now is the time to steer and when you say now i mean you know

00:43:38 remember listening a year ago talk about exponentials on top of exponentials that's

00:43:42 right no longer linear i mean is it we talk about moore's law uh to for intelligence now not just

00:43:49 chips um and so is that trajectory about where you believed it would be uh or is it not as you

00:43:58 know if you know we're with chat one versus two three it's a little bit better a little less you

00:44:04 know noise in there it's a little more accurate i don't have to always double check the link

00:44:08 that's right uh is it i mean where where do you think in terms of just how quickly this thing's

00:44:13 accelerating or are we going to get to a point where now it starts to slow down a little bit

00:44:17 we we got this sort of intense burst of new and interesting activity now this there's is it

00:44:23 compute probably compute problems is it you know what it was it energy problem what is what's going

00:44:28 to be the or is it certainly sure is i regulatory and we're going to get back to that yeah i mean

00:44:34 i would just want to name a psychological effect that we that we've experienced that i think

00:44:39 everyone listening probably experiences too which is you know so we following all the predictions

00:44:44 are actually sort of like right on track for where like researchers thought that ai would be

00:44:49 and even though we knew these facts there's some way that even we it's still surprising

00:44:54 it's still scary take it fully seriously didn't like a body because can't yeah i can't really get

00:44:59 this good this fast like sure it's gonna be scary but it'll be off a little bit further

00:45:03 and yet it actually is moving this fast and every time that it's been predicted that we're going to

00:45:08 hit a data wall there isn't enough data we've used all the data on the internet it's we can't scale

00:45:13 Right. It's basically just reading everything that's already out there. And it's basically hit that wall. And now it's got no more creativity unless we have more inputs of the creative human mind.

00:45:26 That's right. And then the next one is like, well, we don't have enough chips to keep going. And then we don't have enough energy. And the point being is that there are trillions of dollars going into finding all of the solutions to all of these bottlenecks.

00:45:38 all the smartest minds are going because this is the biggest incentive because it gives you

00:45:42 political economic military scientific technological cyber dominance forever and so if you think that

00:45:50 any one of these bottlenecks is going to stop that mass sum total of like that incentive it's it's a

00:45:56 little delusional yeah um and that's why we have to have this clarity that where we're going

00:46:01 isn't safe for any of us because that that is the coordination point that is where we'll start to

00:46:07 coordinate differently. Now, you're bringing up something, Gavin, that there is a belief that

00:46:14 some of this is hype, that the companies are hyping the technology. I just read a blog and

00:46:19 reason there's going to be no job losses. It wasn't Mark himself, but it was a member of the team

00:46:24 saying, you know, we're back to a utopian future. And we're going to pay abundance abounds,

00:46:30 cost of goods collapses. We find our lives purpose and meaning in many different ways,

00:46:34 It's not the, quote, unquote, dignity of job we find other.

00:46:37 And jobs will be plenty because we can't even conceive of the jobs.

00:46:41 Two hundred years ago, we were all farmers here in Sacramento.

00:46:43 We went out there.

00:46:44 Everyone was in the fields.

00:46:45 And we've overhyped the sectorial versus the general nature of the displacement.

00:46:49 It invariably will open up possibilities.

00:46:51 Humans always find something new to do.

00:46:52 We always come together and solve it.

00:46:54 Exactly.

00:46:54 More bank tellers now than there were.

00:46:56 That's exactly right.

00:46:57 Even despite the ATM.

00:46:57 Radiologists.

00:46:58 Jeffrey Hinton made the prediction that we're going to have any radiologists.

00:47:00 So why are you so negative about all this?

00:47:02 Well, I want to separate two things.

00:47:04 We open up two cans of worms.

00:47:06 So let's take the cans of worms separately.

00:47:08 One of them is around whether the companies are hyping the power of the technology through talking about the dangers.

00:47:14 And then the other is whether the hype is going to cause the level of job loss.

00:47:18 I've heard people say that about the mythos.

00:47:20 It was just wildly overstated.

00:47:22 So it was just a way of hyping up the stock in a touch.

00:47:24 That's right.

00:47:24 So I really, really, really want to meet that criticism.

00:47:29 So people will say Anthropic has a history of hyping the technology, saying it's dangerous so that they can get regulatory capture, get the government to regulate it, say there's only one king here, make them the king, nationalize the project, then shut down the other projects, and it's this all-secret ploy so that they win the race.

00:47:48 And first of all, it assumes that them talking about the dangers is only bad faith, like that the technology is not dangerous and they're just saying that it's dangerous and it can do all these destructive things so that they can get that outcome.

00:47:57 um so first of all let's just take cloud mythos specifically so again can hack into every major

00:48:02 operating systems if you read online there's a lot of people who say this is just hype this isn't

00:48:07 actually that much better you can take the open source models you can do this stuff so i have a

00:48:11 friend who is the head of security at one of the top five not the fortune 500 the top five um and

00:48:20 he has had early access to mythos and when he he himself has said this is this is crazy this is

00:48:28 like i mean the words were um i think i saw jesus like it was like it was that crazy when he looked

00:48:35 at everybody critiquing that mythos was just hype he asked has any of them do they actually have

00:48:40 access to the model and none of the people that had criticized it had personally had access to it

00:48:45 Yeah. So I challenge those who are criticizing that it's hype to say, have you actually used it?

00:48:53 And if you talk to people who have, do you still have the same opinion? Okay, so that's one thing

00:48:56 that it is true, by the way, that the companies, I think, have wanted people to understand the

00:49:01 dangers so that they can actually accelerate the move towards some guardrails. But there's a

00:49:05 question of that happening in good faith or bad faith. I think there's more of that happening in

00:49:08 good faith. There's some bad faith in there too, maybe. But I think it's mainly good faith. But

00:49:13 then let's take the second can of worms you opened which is on is ai going to create this world of

00:49:19 abundance we're all going to be poets you know and painters on a grecian sunset and you know now

00:49:25 robots are going to do all the jobs let's do it now you're talking yeah well we'd all like that

00:49:30 one question i would have is when is a handful of people ever concentrated all the wealth and

00:49:36 then consciously redistributed it to everyone else eight or nine trillionaires are not going

00:49:40 to take care of eight or nine billion of us yeah exactly you call call that bluff yeah exactly well

00:49:45 and then you combine that with the intelligence curse that we laid out that the incentive

00:49:48 is like why do we want to invest in the people it became becomes basically an act of charity

00:49:54 because otherwise i mean that or dealing with the political revolution um but again i don't think

00:50:01 that we're currently on track to be redistributing uh that wealth and it's also not just the wealth

00:50:05 and the money it's like we have people have to have work and dignity and status and meaning

00:50:08 Voltaire, life, you know, a job solves life's three great evils, boredom, vice, and need.

00:50:13 Not just need, but boredom and vice.

00:50:14 That's right.

00:50:15 So let's get to that.

00:50:15 And community and belonging.

00:50:17 Absolutely.

00:50:17 All of that, which, again, no one's talked about more than you in terms of that social dilemma.

00:50:24 So let's, before we go there and this notion of the transition and job displacement and

00:50:29 the sort of the human condition that I think connects as well, the President Xi, President

00:50:34 Trump's visit as well in terms of their own domestic issues in China, where they have the

00:50:39 same incentive structure not to go through that transition with the kind of displacement

00:50:43 that could create social unrest in the short term. But get back to this notion of constraints

00:50:48 and the safety side of things. I mean, we're here in California, the dominant, I mean,

00:50:53 the technology sort of birthplace of so much of the technology, obviously the consciousness,

00:50:58 32 of the top 50 market cap companies, arguably, Old Stat, and of course, most of the AI labs

00:51:03 here. But we're also, we've been leaders, modest, though some would suggest, but we've been leaders

00:51:10 in particularly large language model, frontier models, of focusing on a regulatory structure

00:51:16 in the complete absence of any federal regulation. It's the let it rip. That's right.

00:51:23 It's the administration. Until recently, there were some tonal shifts in the Trump administration.

00:51:31 Just the last two, three weeks.

00:51:33 Just the last few weeks.

00:51:34 They were undermining, they were very intentionally undermining the legislation that we brought, SB 53.

00:51:40 And you had other Republicans that were trying to undermine California's leadership.

00:51:46 Senator Cruz would call them out, saying we don't want to see the California vacation of regulation all across the United States of America.

00:51:53 Interestingly, that's beginning to shift.

00:51:56 Why do you think that's the case?

00:51:58 Is it because our AI czar is no longer formally in that role?

00:52:04 Is it because now they're waking up to this new reality?

00:52:08 Was it what happened in the Pentagon with Dario and Anthropic?

00:52:12 Was it the combination of all of this?

00:52:14 It's because they're listening to you.

00:52:15 They watch the doc.

00:52:16 It's because they realize all the money in the world is not going to build a big enough bunker that I can enjoy in the absence of societal calm.

00:52:26 What is it?

00:52:27 I think I would just say it very shortly is that there are two different realities. There's sort of like the political reality and then there's like physical reality. And physical reality is crashing into political reality. That is with mythos, suddenly banks can get hacked. Any computer system can get hacked. Your stuff can get hacked. And once that physical reality starts getting scary enough, you have to start waking up. You're no longer in sort of like political game land.

00:52:56 I do think that it was, it's interesting to note that when the emergency meeting was convened after Claude Mythos came out, it wasn't at the Pentagon or National Security, I mean, that happened too, I'm sure. But the real meeting that happened was between Scott Besant and the Treasury Secretary convening all the banks. Because I think the thing that really got them was that if this takes down the financial system, what could his quote 10% GDP growth if the entire financial system gets undermined?

00:53:23 So I think this, again, illustrates the point we have been making since the beginning, that the upsides don't prevent the downsides.

00:53:30 And the downsides can undermine the world that can sustain the benefits of the upsides.

00:53:37 And so I do think there's been a forced shift.

00:53:40 And, you know, it's very late in the game, but we should celebrate that it is happening.

00:53:44 Now we just need this kind of full whole of society response to mobilize.

00:53:48 I mean, there's Nicholas Carlini who gave the talk on Mythos at a conference, Black Hat LLM, I think it was called.

00:53:54 It's the Unprompted Conference.

00:53:55 Yeah, Unprompted Conference.

00:53:57 And basically saying he's kind of calling, you know, if you are a cyber person, we need you right now.

00:54:02 We need you defending all the systems.

00:54:04 Everybody should get access to Mythos and do it as fast as possible because, as you said, Gavin,

00:54:08 the clip between the new capabilities being out there and then China coming out with a model that makes it possible,

00:54:14 maybe this time we have six months.

00:54:16 Next time maybe we have three months.

00:54:17 then we have two months. So we need to really work hard. I'm not trying to scare people. It

00:54:22 just means that we actually have to work hard to create safety here. Now, China doesn't want the 0.78

00:54:27 financial system to collapse either. No, they don't. And so again, we have to recognize that

00:54:32 it's possible for coordination to happen, not because of kumbaya, we're all going to get along,

00:54:38 but because out of self-interest, like the U.S. doesn't want China to screw it up and then break

00:54:43 the financial system. China doesn't want the U.S. to screw up and then break the financial system.

00:54:46 or the US doesn't want China to release a rogue AI that starts mining for cryptocurrency and

00:54:50 hacking into things and self-replicating like an invasive species. And China doesn't want the

00:54:54 US to do that either. So, so long as we have clarity about what we want, we can choose a

00:55:01 different path. And what, a Bretton Woods type path? Yeah. Well, and this is actually one of

00:55:06 the other exciting things is that we haven't even really tried to coordinate yet. Like what

00:55:12 percentage of the billionaire's wealth, how much of their time have they spent actually trying to

00:55:16 coordinate they all just say well if you're gonna do it then we're gonna do it um if you say it's

00:55:21 impossible have you spent a month of your life and all of your connections dedicatedly trying

00:55:25 yeah exactly no one and the same thing like this guy's exactly and the last time that humanity

00:55:29 invented a technology that could extinct ourselves like the nuclear bomb we had bretonwoods we took

00:55:36 you know candidate or groups from a hundred countries lock them in a hotel room in new

00:55:41 hampshire for like six weeks or something like that and said we're going to figure something

00:55:45 out and you're not leaving the hotel until we figure it out so it's like it's not a conference

00:55:49 where you go you drink your coffee and you listen to some talks it's what we need is the we lock

00:55:53 ourselves in a room and we figure this out um and i know that this summit is just a couple days and

00:55:59 we all know about the difficulties of the level of expertise that might be involved right now but

00:56:03 this is the moment to to open the doorway of that possibility um and we have examples through history

00:56:09 where when something becomes existential to a citizen group and their nation, they will coordinate.

00:56:17 So, you know, in the middle of the Cold War, still the U.S. and Russia, we coordinated on

00:56:22 eradicating smallpox. And, you know, the U.S. did logistics and funding. And the Soviet Union made

00:56:27 25 million doses of the vaccine annually. And then, you know, India and Pakistan, they were

00:56:31 literally trading bullets in the 1960s. And yet they still worked on the Indus Water Treaty.

00:56:37 And that lasted nearly 60 years because access to water was existential to them and their citizens.

00:56:42 They had a shared water supply.

00:56:43 You have to collaborate on that.

00:56:45 And so I just want to acknowledge the people here.

00:56:48 It was, you know, some people know the history that Obama and Xi, President Obama and Xi, signed an agreement to not cyber hack each other.

00:56:54 And I think the next day was the biggest cyber hack in the U.S. government by China.

00:56:57 So I want people to hear this not from some kind of naivete about the level of competition, rivalry, and antagonism that is currently present. 0.57

00:57:06 but when the stakes get existential when i push the button and it shifts from the label of the

00:57:10 being 10 gdp growth and military dominance and cyber dominance the next time i push the button 0.55

00:57:15 it's collective suicide i don't want to push that button and china doesn't want to push that button 0.70

00:57:20 either so the the button label has to shift from what we thought it was going to give us 0.78

00:57:25 to a new outcome and the way asa says that i love is that the fear of all of us losing

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01:00:30 So you have a very regulated construct in China compared to certainly the United States.

01:00:37 That's right.

01:00:38 You're talking about a traditional model.

01:00:41 right now we're the we're the new frontier out here the wild west yeah yeah i mean it's you know

01:00:47 go west go west young man go west i mean it's people are pushing out the boundaries of discovery 0.74

01:00:52 holding them back on their own yeah regardless of what happens in you know beijing um this is

01:00:59 really in the hands of a handful of people ultimately making the right decision we uh

01:01:05 you know and i i believe dario is the best of a lot i think universally that's accepted but

01:01:10 But that may be, and even Dario may acknowledge, because of the flatness of the surrounding terrain, may not be because he's particularly eminent on his own.

01:01:19 And he talks about his own, you know, he's an entrepreneur and he's constantly reflecting on his own incentive structure and how he has to compete in this environment at the same time.

01:01:29 And he's at least, I think, has a more situational awareness than others.

01:01:33 But, you know, whatever can be, will be.

01:01:35 Yeah. And, you know, with respect to Elon, I don't trust XAI. You know, I mean, the idea that he's the good guy compared to our friends down at Google.

01:01:46 That's right. Or you guys left. I mean, you know, so talk to me about more of the sinister realities of, you know, I don't mean sinister, but the impulses, again, to be the guy, the God, the God, I mean, to have their DNA.

01:02:00 yeah so so yeah i'm grateful you're bringing this up there's a few things we should enumerate here

01:02:04 so one is we need coordination and we do find ourselves in the unfortunate spot that the people

01:02:11 who do need to be in coordination maximally distrust each other even just the u.s ceos i

01:02:17 mean elon musk and sam hate each other correct um it's not like dario sam or sam no famous

01:02:23 famous moment the india summit they couldn't even hold their hands together hold hands yeah at least

01:02:28 they showed up so uh we have a problem of trust between leaders themselves we need i think

01:02:34 structures that impose the trust on top because they're not going to do it autonomously themselves

01:02:38 um so that's the regulation that that's yeah that's the transparency using the power of law

01:02:44 to say that yeah we these people this is going to happen in china here's the the rules are going to

01:02:49 be similar in china as they are here we're both for example not going to open source a model that

01:02:53 can hack into any computer system in the world without defenses we're at least not going to

01:02:56 open source that. China doesn't want a rogue non-state actor or terrorist group having that

01:03:02 ability to hack their infrastructure. Because it would also blow back onto them. Same thing with

01:03:06 a open source model that knows how to do very dangerous things with biology. There's some

01:03:11 threshold that we can get these countries to agree. Just like the Soviet Union in the United 0.83

01:03:15 States had a red phone saying, this is to de-escalate, I think we need something like an

01:03:21 AI red lines phone, meaning that both countries have common knowledge of the frontier of these

01:03:26 risks right because right now we don't even have that common knowledge there's rumors that that

01:03:29 may be one of the things that they're preparing to announce that's right you know as a that's right

01:03:35 at least some beginning of this but i wanted the other aspect of the human experience of this we

01:03:40 did a screening of the ai doc in new york and there was someone in the audience actually who

01:03:45 raised her hand quietly and she said i'm a coach for one of the ceos of these companies and you

01:03:52 know what happens when i talk to them is they say but what can i do i'm just one person i'm powerless

01:03:58 and i want people to hear that because i notice that even you know we all feel relative to the

01:04:03 size of this problem you will never locate agency that is that is enough agency to do something

01:04:09 about this problem in one human body even if that body is elon by himself or sundar by himself or

01:04:15 sam by themselves um and so getting back to um you know i think what this moment is inviting us

01:04:21 into we often say that ai is our ultimate test but greatest invitation that we have to go from

01:04:26 agency to wegency we have to basically act in some kind of collective way and the forces

01:04:31 politically of the world have been driving us away from that but this is kind of the test like

01:04:35 we either do that and we step up and again we need everything from common political pressure

01:04:40 and this being the number one issue in the midterms and you know the public's rallying and

01:04:44 all the governors you know speaking up about this and all the world leaders speaking about this

01:04:47 Just two days ago, I got an email from the president of Iceland who basically wants to activate on this issue.

01:04:53 And Iceland hosted in Reykjavik the first arms control talks.

01:04:56 There's a lot that people could do if they said not just what can I do, but how could I get my reaching up and out to the network of people to take action together?

01:05:05 there is a second part to your point which is the darker part which is um you talking about

01:05:13 the game theory of uh the psychology of the leaders that they basically believe that in

01:05:17 the worst case scenario the thing that kept us safe in nukes is that it's two people have to

01:05:24 push the button and i know you won't push the button because i know that there's something

01:05:28 sacred that you don't want this whole thing to end and i know that and i know that you know that

01:05:32 i know that and so even though we get very very very close and we've gotten close so many times

01:05:37 we haven't pushed that button but in this case with ai there's a belief it first of all it's a

01:05:43 red zone of where the risk occurs it's not like there's one button that gets pushed it's like

01:05:46 we just push this stuff out there and there's a belief that it's inevitable if i didn't do it

01:05:51 someone else would which means i don't experience ethical complicity in being part of the end of

01:05:57 civilization and if it's inevitable there's nothing i could have done to stop it so i don't even have

01:06:01 to feel bad right and then so the the game theory goes from all of us knowing that we want to avoid

01:06:06 the bad outcome to everybody believing that there isn't a different outcome which means that the

01:06:11 best outcome is maybe the worst thing is all of us go by the wayside but we birthed a digital god

01:06:17 and it speaks chinese instead of english or maybe it has elon's dna instead of sam as jensen said

01:06:22 it's at least on an american stack it's yeah right at least we're selling the world american

01:06:26 but the reason of laying all that out is that if the whole world could see i think what we just

01:06:33 laid out if literally everyone could see that yeah the whole world says we don't want eight

01:06:38 soon-to-be trillionaires deciding the future for eight billion people who didn't consent to this

01:06:43 and that's the purpose of again that sort of brings us back to the beginning why you're doing

01:06:48 this damn film the day after to create a sort of global consciousness that's right so in the absence 0.59

01:06:53 of that, we're back here in California. You're here with the governor, current governor, 0.99

01:06:58 at the governor's mansion, interestingly. We're doing some decent things. What more should I be

01:07:03 doing in the absence of the kind of federal leadership that we need? I feel like we've

01:07:09 lost this last 18 months. It was interesting working. I worked very closely with the Biden

01:07:17 administration. Did they move quickly enough? Perhaps not, but at least we had a framework

01:07:21 of an executive order. We moved that forward. The president signed it here at the Fairmont Hotel in

01:07:27 San Francisco in California. It was built off an executive order that I did. Six months later,

01:07:33 we were working hand in glove with the Biden administration on that. It was ripped up right

01:07:39 when the Trump administration came into office. You have an AI czar out of the Bay Area,

01:07:44 certainly understands the ecosystem. But it seemed to me, and this is me and you guys don't have to

01:07:48 respond, but it was the great grift. Everybody was sort of on the train and seeing this as an

01:07:53 opportunity and looking at the abundance of this only, but not looking at safety, not looking at

01:07:59 the risk, as you've described. California decided to assert itself in that respect, as we've done

01:08:04 on privacy, as we've done on a lot of child safety issues and a lot more work to do there. And this

01:08:09 year will be a landmark year in terms of getting to the next level in that respect. But what more

01:08:14 can the state be doing? The fear of that always is patchwork, not a framework for the nation

01:08:20 and how you support innovation, our own GDP growth, which has been off the charts in California,

01:08:27 vis-a-vis our competitors, at the same time address these larger global issues. Do you have

01:08:32 any specific ideas for a governor of California that is the current governor that has a budget

01:08:39 that he's releasing in weeks and a legislative session coming up in the next few months?

01:08:43 mm-hmm well we'll get to answering that question specifically but what one of the places of also

01:08:48 good news i just want to say because there's a lot of value in just social signaling where everyone

01:08:53 knows that there's a problem we get to that like shared common knowledge common feeling and if you

01:08:57 went back two years and you said by today 25 of the world's population would live in a country

01:09:04 where they've either have announced or enacted a ban for social media for kids under 16 you'd be

01:09:10 like that's ridiculous you couldn't possibly get that i want people to really feel that like there

01:09:14 you are in 2022 if you said even just literally three years ago yeah i know that a quarter of

01:09:19 the world's population we're talking australia india denmark denmark spain two weeks ago greece

01:09:24 added the list france i was with john height and he was in davos and he he met with president

01:09:29 macron and got france on board like people would have thought that was impossible i mean the trains

01:09:34 left the station we just had all the democratic governors out here and everyone was trying to

01:09:38 compare and contrast which one of the states is going to go first which is following sort of

01:09:41 your leadership which we're going to do but i mean it's you're right this is a tipping point

01:09:44 it's happening it's right and once you get 25 you're gonna get the rest of the world and the

01:09:48 point a lot of these companies i also i anticipate these companies and by the way if i was advising

01:09:54 these companies get ahead of this train yeah that's right and show your largesse and your

01:10:00 maturity and understanding uh so i imagine that may happen as well yeah but no that's a point

01:10:06 You're right.

01:10:07 And so right now, something really interesting happened in Hangzhou in China.

01:10:10 Maybe you're aware of it.

01:10:11 But it's this first case where there was someone who lost his job due to AI automation.

01:10:17 And this court ruled and said, actually, that's not a legitimate reason for you to lose your job.

01:10:23 Companies are not allowed to fire you from increased automation.

01:10:28 Will that solve the whole problem?

01:10:30 Probably not.

01:10:31 But imagine that California took a leadership position there and said, actually, there are going to be some very serious participants.

01:10:36 protections that as ai increases gdp um increases profits actually like people are going to be

01:10:44 they're sort of like an employment insurance they're going to be able to keep their jobs

01:10:48 like that would set a social signal for the rest of the u.s so i'm going to let you off the hook on

01:10:53 the larger safety risk regulation and and let's go back to ideas along these lines because right

01:11:01 in front of us, this notion of displacement transition. And it goes back to the earlier

01:11:06 point I was making, some will argue that, you know, we always, you know, Luddites will never

01:11:13 see the abundance on the other side, and we can't even conceive of the jobs. So with humility,

01:11:18 let's not just assume there'll be no human jobs, because the human mind has the capacity that's

01:11:24 limitless with these technologies that will be more supportive and allow us to be augmented

01:11:30 and discover talents and capacity we never thought possible.

01:11:34 So let's assume that happens.

01:11:36 But the concern is, it seems the most universal,

01:11:39 that it may happen very fast.

01:11:41 That's right.

01:11:42 It's a speed of shape.

01:11:43 So how do you then flatten the curve?

01:11:46 How do you flatten the curve?

01:11:47 How do we address the transition?

01:11:48 You get to employment insurance, something we've been talking a lot about.

01:11:52 You get to this notion that you can't fire someone to be automated.

01:11:54 That's even deeper.

01:11:55 And that's interesting, this Chinese example.

01:11:57 Tell me more about the issue of workforce.

01:12:00 And what I should be worried about when I see Dario saying 50% entry-level jobs, it's no longer a career ladder, it's a jungle gym, and all these young folks got a Stanford are like, now I'm unemployed or unemployable, no coders, software.

01:12:13 I mean, women disproportionately being impacted in the workforce when you look at those clerical jobs, admin jobs, et cetera.

01:12:20 I mean, what do you see a year, two years from now as we deal with the holy grail, the God complex of AGI in the displacement space?

01:12:30 um reed hoffman has this idea i want to make sure i get it right yeah i like which is um

01:12:36 one of the things that makes ai distinct and sam altman has talked about this himself

01:12:40 that you could get the age of these unicorn companies a unicorn company meaning a billion

01:12:44 dollar valuation i met a guy the other day literally billion dollar valuation it's him

01:12:49 one person there we go it's him exactly so i think he was parading himself around as the it's me

01:12:54 that's right one of the first and so that's what that's what has been posited ever since the

01:12:58 beginning of AI, they're saying, we're going to start having a world where you're going to have

01:13:00 a single person with a unicorn billion-dollar company. Now, does society work if there's a

01:13:07 handful of single people with billion-dollar companies and no one else has a job? It doesn't

01:13:11 work. Do you think those people just want to live out their lives in bunkers with private militaries

01:13:15 and gas masks because they've created that world? I don't think they want that world. So Reid Hoffman,

01:13:20 who's the founder of LinkedIn, was early at PayPal and was at some point a friend of Peter Thiel's,

01:13:24 you know, has this proposal that we can tax companies based on the proportion or the ratio

01:13:30 of how many employees they have relative to their revenue. So you want to basically disincentivize

01:13:35 the single solo unicorn company. I don't know if you want to add to it.

01:13:40 Yeah. Well, and also just to note that it doesn't stop with just single person unicorns.

01:13:46 With automating that final one person, not so hard. So you're going to end up with

01:13:49 zero person. You can have the CEO be an AI. And that's actually happening. They're already

01:13:53 getting ai's that are on boards and things like this yeah and so even if you might find it

01:13:56 questionable that that person might have again they they can they can earn their wealth but we

01:14:01 you have to you have to have some taxation to make sure this is being distributed and we also need

01:14:05 we need to find ways of having universal basic ownership not just universal basic cash payments

01:14:09 and ubi but universal basic ownership i think people need to have a stake in in the success

01:14:14 that's happening like what norway did with the sovereign wealth fund but oil didn't oil produced

01:14:19 this kind of gravy on top for the civilization people still had jobs so what's different about

01:14:23 this is we do need to find ways of doing universal basic work we also need to find ways of having

01:14:29 certain professions in which that embodied wisdom like a surgeon or a senior lawyer or a senior

01:14:35 judge we need ways of training and apprenticing almost like minimum quotas of those kinds of

01:14:40 occupations and roles in society make sure that we have that ongoing knowledge because again

01:14:44 the short-term benefit of like no one needs lawyers and then the senior lawyers all die out

01:14:48 that world doesn't work so yeah just the last thing to sort of add here is that you instead

01:14:54 of getting into arguments about how quickly exactly are people going to lose their jobs

01:14:58 well people really do lose their jobs let's let's plan and say okay we we think people are going to

01:15:02 be out of livelihoods this is uh this idea originally came to us from reed hasing the

01:15:05 pharmacy of netflix where he said let's set up trigger point laws if unemployment hits 10 what

01:15:11 are we going to do if it hits 20 what are we going to do that you could pre-set up those sort

01:15:17 of conditions. So we don't have to argue about whether it's going to happen, just what we should

01:15:20 do when it does. And I know that you've been running with Engage California, these citizen

01:15:24 deliberations, these ways of aggregating citizen assemblies, having citizens actually deal with

01:15:28 and think about these issues and come to some, have their own input in this process by reckoning

01:15:33 with these facts. And I think that these are all things that we need. The countries that discover

01:15:38 a natural resource that didn't have this engaged, well-educated citizen, kind of engaged citizen

01:15:43 infrastructure like venezuela or libya or something like that they don't do so well yeah but countries

01:15:48 like norway where you did have the engaged citizens with oversight of those funds you can you end up

01:15:53 with a healthier society so it's sort of like a california engagement fund because you want like

01:15:57 people involved in the redistribution that's right so it's interesting that you mentioned men come

01:16:03 which the old canadian construct uh ubi universal basic income you had elon musk the other day say

01:16:10 He wants universal basic high income.

01:16:12 Well, he said there is going to be universal basic high income.

01:16:14 And then was asked with Peter, right?

01:16:16 That's exactly.

01:16:16 I saw Diamandis.

01:16:17 I saw him probably.

01:16:18 And he was asked a simple question.

01:16:19 How are you going to do it?

01:16:20 And he said, oh, I did.

01:16:21 I was just joking.

01:16:21 I made it up.

01:16:22 That was comforting.

01:16:23 Yeah.

01:16:23 I think people should really take note of that fact.

01:16:25 Yes.

01:16:26 It was just a mispronouncing of high.

01:16:28 Not as in like a high income.

01:16:29 It's just like he's high.

01:16:30 He's not able to think about it.

01:16:32 I mean, it's a little alarming.

01:16:34 So look, how quickly?

01:16:36 Look, we're thinking about all these things.

01:16:38 down to the parochial and the WARN Act, which is how we actually warn the public the social impacts

01:16:43 of large-scale displacement and job loss. Having more capacity to see earlier, that's after the

01:16:51 fact the WARN Act comes out, those jobs are already going to be lost. What are the signs to show us

01:16:55 what the impacts are happening in the job market in real time? Issues of unemployment insurance

01:16:59 becoming employment insurance so that you can keep people employed for a period of time. The Dutch do 1.00

01:17:05 about 90% of the wage. The ultimate training is a job, the dignity of a job, back to those 1.00

01:17:11 Voltaire constructs. And then the opportunity then to potentially transition by using the

01:17:16 federal government to help either backstop. Portable benefits then become fundamental.

01:17:21 This notion of UBC, University of Basic Capital, this notion of sovereign wealth fund or equity,

01:17:27 public equity with dividends. And somehow we get shares. There's equity shares,

01:17:32 contributions from these large companies. That is not just taxes, it's actual equity in the

01:17:38 company. So there's a notion of an ownership and a larger ownership society that we don't tax

01:17:42 jobs with payroll taxes and then subsidize automation through tax credits. We do the

01:17:49 inverse in that context. So all of that, how, you know, so that's the stuff I'm playing around with.

01:17:53 A lot of us are thinking about right now, but how, from your vantage point, how quickly is this

01:17:59 happening. There's a lot of headlines, but there's a lot of debate around these headlines of all these

01:18:04 cuts of jobs. But then people say, well, that was a lot of covert over hiring. There's some

01:18:09 business model issues there, but they're sort of hiding and suggesting it's AI. We haven't

01:18:14 necessarily seen massive job destruction yet, or have we with AI? I think the point people should

01:18:23 get here is that obviously it's complicated and there's jobs are shuffling throughout the economy

01:18:27 a little bit right now but the long-term goal of these companies is not back to it's back to the

01:18:33 original open ai mission statement exactly open ai's mission statement was not to give people

01:18:40 helpful tools so that you can do your job slightly better their mission statement is we do your job

01:18:44 and actually you know gavin in uh in la there's an article in the la times about this that

01:18:48 is one of these new popular gig worker jobs in la is everybody straps a gopro camera to their head

01:18:55 and they look down and then they do laundry they cook they eat they do they do all these things

01:19:00 so basically the number one job soon in the world will be training the replacement for that job

01:19:05 think of it like being a coffin builder like you're designing the coffin and then you put

01:19:09 yourself in it and you know if you think i'm lying by the way just think about meta

01:19:12 meta told instagram creators um you know we're here we love creators we love creativity we want

01:19:19 you to be successful we want to you know our whole mission statement is making creators super

01:19:23 successful that's before they were an ai company what they do the second that they were an ai

01:19:27 company they they trained on all the videos of their creators and then created generative videos

01:19:33 that now basically suck up like a vampire your essence your life force your creativity and then

01:19:38 hit button and now they have a digital copy of you that you didn't consent to that can generate all

01:19:42 these things if you don't believe me just a few weeks ago there was an article meta is now forcing

01:19:47 their employees um to basically track all of their movements all their clicks all the things they're

01:19:51 doing on a computer to train ai agents to do all their jobs this is not a conspiracy theory all you

01:19:57 have to do to know where we're going is understand the incentives and look at the early warning signs

01:20:00 they're telling you who they really are you know open ai says we're all here to to make the world

01:20:06 a better place and then they released this ai slop app that's sora which was basically an infinite

01:20:10 they killed it now but it was an infinitely scrolling um deep fake generated content of like

01:20:15 you know funny videos of stephen hawking you know that's you know going through a raceway or something

01:20:20 like that it's just deep fake ai slob why are they doing that because they want to increase their

01:20:25 market dominance because they want to get users because they want to get training data and it

01:20:29 gets more people using open ai so their numbers going up and if your incentive tell you everything

01:20:32 and if you're a company and you're you know choosing do i hire a real human paralegal

01:20:37 or gpt7 that works for less than minimum wage 24 7 doesn't whistleblow doesn't complain doesn't

01:20:45 have cultural issues doesn't have paid time off like which one are you going to do well you're

01:20:50 Business incentives is just very, very clear, and everyone's going to be trapped in the same race. 0.53

01:20:52 And if you're a competitor, you may say, no, I'm going to keep the human, and then your competitor goes the opposite direction, you're out of business.

01:20:58 You have no choice back to the incentives.

01:21:00 But with those set of interventions that you just mentioned, and you just mentioned a whole slew of things we could be doing.

01:21:04 You just mentioned so many things that we could be doing. 0.98

01:21:07 And I think what it represents is I think people think, but if we don't race to automate every job as fast as possible, we're going to lose to China.

01:21:13 But what this is showing and revealing is we're not in a race just to the technology. 0.73

01:21:18 We're actually in a race for a different currency.

01:21:21 The currency is not who has the power first, but who is better at governing, steering, and integrating that power in a healthy and sustainable and strengthening way into your society.

01:21:30 And we saw this with social media because the U.S. beat China to the psychological bazooka behavior modification machine of social media.

01:21:38 And then we had no idea how to govern it.

01:21:40 So we flipped around.

01:21:41 We blew off our own brain with the brain rot economy. 0.59

01:21:44 And by the way, China regulates social media. 0.86

01:21:47 They do a whole bunch of stuff.

01:21:48 When you open up Douyin TikTok in China, their version of TikTok, and you scroll, you get videos about who won the Nobel Prize, financial advice, here's the new quantum physics theory, here's patriotism videos.

01:22:01 And obviously, there's problems with that. 0.99

01:22:02 We don't want to do it that way.

01:22:03 But the point is you don't have to do it in the Wild West, blow off your own brain.

01:22:07 And now if we release it in a way that automates all the labor with no transition plan, it's like, great, we pumped up our steroids, but we just burst our lungs.

01:22:15 Right?

01:22:15 The societal body, we do that.

01:22:17 So what you just outlined was a set of interventions that we can be exploring to help smooth this transition.

01:22:24 And we're in a competition with China for who's better at making this transition to an AI integrated world.

01:22:30 Where are you on the transition curve?

01:22:33 I mean, we talk about flattening it, but how quick?

01:22:35 I mean, honestly, if we're sitting here a year from now having this conversation, are we looking at that 10% unemployment?

01:22:42 not that 20 necessarily which is that threshold for fascism and a whole nother societal collapse

01:22:48 but it's going to be it's going to be confusing and spiking how to predict exactly yeah because

01:22:53 just think about your own experience with ai so far two years ago it can barely write an essay

01:22:58 yeah and now it can do some parts of your work pretty well and other parts like that is a really

01:23:02 dumb error um and so we're going to see not that much job not that much double off like entry level

01:23:08 stuff getting sort of squished around and then it's going to hit really really quickly when it 0.70

01:23:13 crosses the next threshold just like mythos did there's another confusing aspect about ai that

01:23:17 people in our space call ai jaggedness which is that there's certain capabilities like in cyber

01:23:22 hacking that it is already superhuman yeah already superhuman while it'll still make a very basic dumb

01:23:28 mistake on something else and i think part of what's confusing for people that naturally has

01:23:32 them say is this just hype and these companies are trying to hype this stuff is if you just look at

01:23:36 the dumb examples where it's messing up you're like this thing isn't that powerful we have never

01:23:41 been confronted with a technology that is simultaneously sci-fi level superhuman that 0.92

01:23:47 makes a person who's very deep in security call it like seeing jesus yeah at the same time that

01:23:52 that same technology can like mistake how many r's are in the word strawberry yeah like we have just

01:23:57 not seen that and so it's just i want people to notice for their own psychology that this is a

01:24:01 new psychological object that are our normal intuitions about how to evaluate something we

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01:27:04 And part of that nuance is a deeper understanding that we're not just talking about apps here,

01:27:08 we're talking about the physical world as well.

01:27:10 Yeah, that's right.

01:27:11 It was a big headline that I hope people paid attention to when Elon announced

01:27:15 that in his original factory here in Fremont, California,

01:27:20 that he's converting the S and the X Tesla cars now to humanoid robotics.

01:27:26 And his goal is ultimately a million, you know, that's Elon,

01:27:29 who the hell knows, you know, his goal setting.

01:27:31 But the notion that he's converting that factory from cars to humanoid robotics

01:27:36 and AI now into the physical world.

01:27:38 Is that, I mean, we're seeing driverless cars.

01:27:42 And if you haven't seen them in, you know, your home state,

01:27:45 you're about to and you're going to see flying cars um they're just quadcopters basically but

01:27:50 they're coming soon and we're going to be doing a lot more of that by the way that's great like

01:27:54 we can have a world of quadcopters and you know innovation while not racing to replace us

01:28:00 economically replace us socially so mark zuckerberg you know designs your kids friends rather than

01:28:04 you have them having actual friends replace us politically not having political power and then

01:28:08 replace us physically by owning our physical presence in our in robots so again yeah i think

01:28:14 people might hear this as an anti-technology conversation yeah you know you talked about

01:28:18 your legacy uh and your father and grandfather and we were talking backstage yeah yeah you know

01:28:23 az's father started the macintosh project yeah yeah you know we we come from a legacy where the

01:28:28 word humane is about an inspiring vision about technology that's actually integrated and in

01:28:32 service of our humanity that's of a pro-human future that's what all of this is motivated for

01:28:37 so i get excited about you know flying you know cars that have cool you know ai and just to say

01:28:42 too just as my own personal experiences you know i spend a big portion of my life i founded a thing

01:28:47 called earth species project um we're now around 40 people and you're the biggest consumer of it

01:28:52 i wouldn't say the biggest consumer yeah exactly it's me i'm sorry guys um uh first infinite scroll

01:28:58 now this um but you know we were using ai to translate animal language animal communication

01:29:03 one of our researchers just discovered um just before she joined us that like not only do dolphins

01:29:08 have names that they call each other by that their mothers teach them they will talk about each other

01:29:13 in the third person so they'll talk about another dolphin that isn't here so it's like one of the

01:29:17 biggest hallmarks of language to be able to talk about something that's not here and not now but

01:29:21 they will continue to use their mother's name even after she's died yeah sweet right it's it's

01:29:27 beautiful with these are the kinds of things that ai can show us and teach us about the world and

01:29:33 connect us with the natural world the world around us and shows things we couldn't possibly imagine

01:29:37 So I just want everyone to hear, it's not that we're just here saying no AI, it's just saying not AI in this way, that technological progress might be inevitable, but the way that AI rolls out is not.

01:29:49 That's right.

01:29:50 And every time somebody says it's inevitable, it's like casting a spell.

01:29:53 That's right.

01:29:54 Where, because if it's inevitable, then there's nothing we can do, then you shouldn't possibly act. 0.99

01:29:58 There's a button we're hitting called commit suicide, commit suicide.

01:30:00 Is it inevitable that we all hit that button?

01:30:02 No, when it's called 10% GDP growth and innovation, we push the button.

01:30:07 If we could collectively see that the button we're pushing is more nuanced than that, that there's some threshold by which we are essentially committing civilizational suicide, we're not going to have a human future.

01:30:17 If you ask anybody, what gives me hope?

01:30:20 We've been on the road with this film.

01:30:22 You walk people through the basic facts we've talked through.

01:30:24 And you ask, who here is stoked about the future that we're headed to?

01:30:28 I was even at the Miami Tech Summit in front of a pro-business, pro-AI.

01:30:31 A lot of people invested in it.

01:30:33 Again, we're invested in positive technology too.

01:30:36 But I was able to see that entire audience is like, no, I don't want that either.

01:30:39 Wow.

01:30:40 Yeah.

01:30:40 So again, I think it's like as long as you give people the off ramp, there are ways we can have technology that's in service of making life better.

01:30:47 We need to be funding and innovating in that way.

01:30:50 And we need to be blocking off the parts that are hurting our children, that are diminishing people's cognitive capacities or replacing their kids' relationships with AI companions.

01:30:59 And we can do that.

01:31:00 And you've done some of that with here in California.

01:31:01 So, you know, it's not that I am or we are by default optimistic about the default trajectory, not at all.

01:31:08 It's that if we have the clarity, we can put our hand in the steering wheel and we can steer it somewhere else.

01:31:14 This notion of accelerate and steer.

01:31:17 Yeah, that's right.

01:31:18 What happens when you accelerate and you don't steer?

01:31:21 You obviously crash.

01:31:22 It's just it's like not rocket science.

01:31:23 It's 100% the likely outcome.

01:31:26 um what just in in as we wrap up this notion of governance going back to that is it's it's the

01:31:33 foundation here which the regulations and and and the relationships are formed the partnerships to

01:31:39 begin to address the common humanity and the common threat and the common cause common

01:31:43 opportunities that present themselves um this notion of capture i mean you've got these packs

01:31:50 You've got so much concentrated wealth.

01:31:52 We're going to likely have the first few trillionaires this year, this calendar year.

01:31:58 That's right.

01:32:00 These IPOs, I mean, it's just, now it's a big surplus in the state, the abundance, the GDP.

01:32:07 I mean, it's frothy, as they say.

01:32:10 But a lot of that now is going to make sure that we're protecting incumbents against innovation,

01:32:16 you know some incumbent capitalism uh not entrepreneurial capitalism necessarily

01:32:21 innovation capitalism uh there's that friction that's always ongoing and those that are just

01:32:25 going to do everything to hammer as they did with social media to make sure there's no regular we're

01:32:30 still debating section 230 that's right for christ's sake yeah yeah in this country so how do

01:32:35 we start to break that reality i think money and politics that's just that's right that's that's

01:32:41 up the ante just just a little bit even further which is that so as we get more trillionaires

01:32:46 Like they can hire private security, but that still requires relying on human beings.

01:32:50 But you were just pointing out that we are heading into like a world where we have drone

01:32:55 armies, we have humanoid robot armies, when trillionaires can just buy like their drone

01:33:01 armies to fight. 0.91

01:33:02 Like we enter into techno feudalism, right?

01:33:04 And so like that is the world that if we see, if we don't do something, we're going to end

01:33:09 up into.

01:33:10 But to answer your question, it's all about the campaign loving.

01:33:14 It's all about that.

01:33:14 And $190 million has gone into basically AI accelerationist PACs funding for this midterm election alone.

01:33:25 Just the midterms.

01:33:26 Just the midterms.

01:33:27 So $190 million, I believe the presidential is $2 billion.

01:33:30 So basically 10% of the presidential is going into just the midterms for AI alone, not even for the rest of it.

01:33:35 And it's not to regulate.

01:33:36 It's not to regulate it.

01:33:38 It's to say remove everything and go as fast as possible.

01:33:41 Right. Let it rip.

01:33:41 If you had everyone in the world, I think, hear the conversation we just had.

01:33:47 And at a basic level, common sense, looking your children in the eye and say, are you stoked about that future?

01:33:52 No one wants that.

01:33:53 So the key piece of agency is going into the midterm elections, not voting for people who have taken money from those AI accelerationist groups or don't have a position on AI that's trying to steer away from these outcomes.

01:34:07 Now, we obviously have to articulate that in a clearer way.

01:34:10 what does it mean to have kind of a pro-human platform in future and and the companies try to

01:34:15 make the conversation inaccessible like oh well you don't understand AI they're trying to make

01:34:18 it seem like so you don't know how to regulate it let's put us in charge yeah we call this the

01:34:22 the under the hood bias where it's as if people who know how to make the biggest engines know how

01:34:27 to lay out cities and traffic lights and that's just not true like people who know how to make

01:34:31 car engines are not the best people for knowing how to make cars safe and prevent car accidents

01:34:36 yeah exactly so it's pretty simple it's like do you want an anti-human future in which you will

01:34:42 be permanently disempowered where no one has an incentive except for charity to pay your bills

01:34:47 for you and cover your you want the companies that took your job you want to be dependent on

01:34:51 them for the rest of your life to pay your bills for you yeah with no economic leverage no so this

01:34:57 is the final window you know you want to vote for people who are going to protect you economically

01:35:01 protect you socially, protect you politically, meaning protect our jobs, protect our vote,

01:35:06 voting pro-human. And obviously that has to get articulated even more clearly. But that is the

01:35:11 number one way that people can make a difference in the short term. There's other things too,

01:35:15 like boycotting companies that are enabling mass surveillance. You know, when the company's

01:35:19 subscriptions go down by a lot, they really need their numbers to be going up. So the companies

01:35:23 are more vulnerable than you think. And you're more powerful than you think, not just if you

01:35:26 unsubscribe and boycott them, but get your company, get your church group to do that too.

01:35:31 And when those numbers start to change, it actually has a difference.

01:35:34 Scott Galloway has been talking a lot about that as well.

01:35:37 That's right.

01:35:38 Absolutely.

01:35:38 Got to use whatever power at your disposal.

01:35:41 Let's just briefly talk then about the power.

01:35:43 I mean, you know, free and fair elections.

01:35:48 We talk about truth, trust more broadly, deep fakes, political ads.

01:35:52 I mean, I've seen stuff, you know, meetings, conversations I've had that are, I mean, it's next level what's out there.

01:35:59 Deep fakes of you.

01:36:00 Yes, just the BS that's already out there, the ability to manipulate the crowd in the context of social media, the algorithms.

01:36:08 I mean, now you've got concentrated in the hands of a few in that respect.

01:36:11 I mean, that whole thing.

01:36:12 I mean, you guys have talked about free and fair elections.

01:36:16 We talk about the timelines, not only on job displacement, but timelines to get this right.

01:36:22 That's right.

01:36:24 Domestically, globally.

01:36:25 I mean, 2026, you're talking midterms?

01:36:29 yeah i mean this is i mean we only have a few more at bats to get this right that's right or

01:36:34 is that overstated no this is it it's a few more this is the moment by 2028 like that'll be the

01:36:39 last human election like it's going to be ai's running all of the election election campaigns

01:36:44 the ads doing all the both information and disinformation because human beings just can't

01:36:48 operate at that speed and are not that effective yeah so this is it this is the window but and i

01:36:53 know i just want to like at the human experiential level we've been talking about some hard stuff

01:36:57 the last little while and you know i just want to say you know we struggle with how to communicate

01:37:02 this in a way that's responsible because here's the here's the trade right it's hard to face this

01:37:07 but if we don't face it we just like look away what are we going to get we're going to get the

01:37:11 default anti-human path and so there's this trade where we the only way out is through like it is we

01:37:17 call it kind of like a rite of passage like our ability to confront basically a a shadow of a

01:37:23 technology and the default future that that brings, if we can see that clearly, and if we can

01:37:29 know that you know and I know that we don't want that, and if Xi and Trump and the people at the

01:37:34 highest levels of these governments, because you ask any reasonable person at a very high level in

01:37:38 national security on any side, and you say, do you want AIs that are going rogue and hacking to any

01:37:43 computer system and are already mining cryptocurrency? Does that sound good to you?

01:37:47 Does that sound safe to you? At a universal level, it's not. So there's actually much more common

01:37:52 ground. And even, you know, 40, I think it's already the case that 57% of Americans think

01:37:57 that the risks of AI currently outweigh the benefits. I don't like that stat because it

01:38:01 makes it too, like it's all bad versus all good or something like that. You know, there's already

01:38:05 the pro-human AI declaration where 46 groups came together and said, we agree on these five

01:38:10 principles to make a pro-human future. You can look it up. It's humanstatement.org. That's the

01:38:14 one that also includes, again, Glenn Beck, Bernie Sanders, Steve Bannon, all these people. I believe

01:38:19 that 65 percent of Americans believe we should not create super intelligence until we know how

01:38:24 to do it provably safely and controlled sounds like a pretty basic thing like let's not do

01:38:29 something it's like should we build a nuclear bomb that until we know how to do it safely or

01:38:32 we know that it won't set off it we won't ignite the atmosphere probably we should wait to do that

01:38:36 so this is not a radical proposal this is not do you want to know how many like what percentage

01:38:42 of Americans think that we should just go as fast as possible unfettered non-regulated AI

01:38:48 what percent of americans five percent is it literally yeah literally five percent just five

01:38:52 percent so actually it's the most popular platform to run on that's right to do the like the safe

01:38:57 thing it was and it's and whether you're democrat or republican you don't want to be surveilled by

01:39:01 ais whether you're democrat republican you don't want ais taking your jobs which it will do equally

01:39:04 to both sides but do you then subscribe to the bernie aoc frame just shut down the data centers

01:39:10 and moratorium and tell i think of it as those data centers and it's like i want a pro-human

01:39:17 data center policy it's like you get to build the data center when these conditions are met and we

01:39:22 know that it's going to land a center protein future i'm not saying that's easy i'm not saying

01:39:24 but because i want people to hear it's not just no to all of it yeah yeah it's making sure that

01:39:31 the conditions are the steering is built in so when you see that data center you should ask is

01:39:35 that data center here to basically enhance my life and strengthen my family well you were even just

01:39:41 saying data center was solar mostly data centers aren't solar that's right we're turning back on

01:39:46 coal plants that's right natural gas plants that are exactly yeah yeah and you know often in in the

01:39:52 sci-fi movies when is it the case that human beings actually stop all their bickering and

01:39:57 they start coordinating it's when the aliens come right yeah we are summoning the demon we are

01:40:02 summoning the alien and if we can see it that way then it's sort of like a game of thrones winter

01:40:07 is coming we have to understand winter is coming then all the fighting in westeros can like pause

01:40:11 for just long enough that we can deal with it yeah that's this moment because otherwise it just

01:40:15 feels completely hopeless like how how are we going to like deal with all the finance reforms

01:40:20 and we can't like when has congress actually done anything um and yet there is this one moment where

01:40:27 like all of humanity is on one side there is a human movement like that's what i think the social

01:40:32 media stuff shows if we don't think of this as just an ai problem but as a technology encroaching

01:40:38 onto our humanity overreaching into our humanity problem then actually there is massive momentum

01:40:44 more than we ever thought was possible because what we have to do is juice those like the

01:40:49 momentum that's already there that's right yeah well look in the absence of um of federal leadership

01:40:55 california will continue to assert itself i believe in the power of emulation yes success

01:40:59 leaves clues we'll continue to try to yes iterate on this and lean in but but look this you know

01:41:04 the clarity that you guys bring to this conversation the importance of this conversation

01:41:08 being brought to scale and and broadening the consciousness um and the imperative of seeing

01:41:13 um this documentary again the documentary is called the ai doc or how i became an apocal

01:41:20 optimist and and we can't let that slip twice because you've used a word that people are not

01:41:27 familiar with which is a good way to end and that is this convergence of optimism and pessimism

01:41:34 uh more optimism than pessimism would be a better place and it's about agency and i'll just leave

01:41:39 you with a quote that i loved from a meditation teacher who talked who uh happened to be a

01:41:45 meditation teacher and it's from the army corps of engineers which is that uh the difficult we do

01:41:51 today the impossible takes just a little longer i like it yeah yeah and i just end by saying

01:41:58 right it really actually isn't about being an optimist or pessimist because to choose that

01:42:04 label for yourself it's a sort of it's to take a back seat like to sit down and just be like i'm

01:42:08 just going to accept that it'll either come out well or not versus taking responsibility for trying

01:42:15 to see clearly to shift the world to go well um and i think that's what like everyone listening

01:42:22 can can do is that this can all feel like too big um what what can i do and then you realize even

01:42:29 like the like the the ceos of the company sort of feel a similar way um but this is not just about

01:42:35 of what we must do this is fundamentally a question of like who we must be that if we are

01:42:41 the kind of people that aren't looking for a path and the path is certainly not clear doesn't seem

01:42:46 obvious or even possible but if we're the kind of people that don't look for the path we definitely

01:42:51 won't find it if it's there if we are the kinds of people that do look for the path then if it's

01:42:56 there we have the opportunity to find it and just maybe one last thing is people listening to this

01:43:02 this is a lot your role is not to take on this whole problem you don't have to do that there's

01:43:08 some people who are soldiers and there's some people who are civilians but your role is to be

01:43:12 part of the collective immune system against this anti-human future one simple way you can do that

01:43:17 is to share this conversation yeah with literally the most powerful people that you know and ask

01:43:23 them to watch it and to share it with the most powerful people that they know and if you've done

01:43:27 that you can say as long as you are spreading the word and being part of that immune system

01:43:31 you can rest at home kiss your children at night focus on the things that all of this is about

01:43:37 anyway which is what do we love about the world what do we love about life that we want to continue

01:43:42 and come from that place because that is the energy that we will that that will inspire other

01:43:47 people to want to take those those other actions too and i know gevin you ended up watching an

01:43:50 earlier presentation that we did the ai dilemma yeah i think somebody said that you watched it

01:43:54 like three times and shared with all your staff how did you end up hearing about it yeah well i

01:43:59 I mean, come on, hearing about it from you guys, you guys, I was able to get the early, early preview from the two of you and was able to devour it, took notes and, and then shared it universally with everybody around me.

01:44:15 Look, you know, I, I, in the spirit of you guys just ended, I couldn't agree with you more.

01:44:19 This notion of agency is so important.

01:44:21 And we talk about that on the podcast all the time, but this notion of the future, it's not something to experience, something to manifest.

01:44:26 Yeah, that's right.

01:44:27 The future is inside of us.

01:44:28 Exactly, that's right.

01:44:28 That's exactly right.

01:44:29 And so it's decisions, not conditions.

01:44:31 That's exactly right. 0.99

01:44:31 And so this idea that we are powerless, it's just bullshit. 0.99

01:44:35 Yeah, that's right. 1.00

01:44:35 It's complete bullshit. 1.00

01:44:36 Yeah. 0.99

01:44:37 Everything that we laid out is an opportunity to do better and be better.

01:44:41 And I think the spirit of the called arms for everybody is we all have a role to play.

01:44:45 And those roles are different.

01:44:47 And no one has to be, you know, you don't have to be overwhelmed.

01:44:50 But this notion of just being present in the conversation and indulging in the conversation and sharing it, I think, is foundational.

01:44:58 So, guys, this is really important.

01:45:02 The timeliness of this conversation, it cannot overstate.

01:45:07 And so I'm very grateful for you to be out on the road all across this country sharing this remarkable documentary.

01:45:14 I encourage everybody, go out and watch it.

01:45:16 And more importantly, share it and not fall prey to any of the cynicism and negativity.

01:45:23 Maintain your sense of optimism.

01:45:25 Again, we can shape the future.

01:45:26 Thank you both.

01:45:28 another podcast from some snl late night comedy guy not quite on humor me with robert smigel and

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This is Gavin Newsom - May 15, 2026

Can Artificial Intelligence Be Controlled？ With Tristan Harris & Aza Raskin

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