This is Gavin Newsom - April 10, 2026


The Briefing： ＂Get Me Regime Change In Iran＂

Topics
regime change in Iran
Hosted by
Gavin Newsom
Mentioned
Trump Benjamin Netanyahu Nora Jones Laura Owens Richard N. Haas Josh Groban Noah Kahn Michael Mancini Clayton Eckerd Gregor Gillespie Clinton Weimar Mertz Putin
And, This Is How To Preserve Our Democracy With Filmmaker Ken Burns And, This Is The Stoic's Survival Guide With Ryan Holiday

Episode Stats


Length

20 minutes

Words per minute

173.9

Word count

3,526

Sentence count

220

Harmful content

Hate speech

31

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

As the League One Volleyball season heads toward its final stretch, there's no better time to tune in than as the league heads into the final stretch of the regular season. In this episode of the Serving Pancakes podcast, host Jay Shetty sits down with best friends Gavin Newsom and Richard Haas to talk all things volleyball.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
Topics generated with Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct.
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.000 This is an iHeart Podcast.
00:00:02.500 Guaranteed human.
00:00:04.240 There's a healing element in salt,
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00:00:10.340 In Halifax, being surrounded by salty water and fog
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00:00:16.040 the pressure of to-do lists.
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00:00:26.540 feeling like you took one.
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00:00:32.200 Discover Halifax.ca.
00:00:34.580 On the Serving Pancakes podcast,
00:00:36.260 conversations about volleyball go beyond the court.
00:00:38.380 Today we have a little best friend compatibility test.
00:00:40.840 Okay, how long have we been best friends?
00:00:42.540 Since the day we met.
00:00:43.500 As the League One volleyball season heads towards its final stretch,
00:00:46.260 there's no better time to tune in.
00:00:47.660 You'll hear unfiltered analysis, behind-the-scenes stories,
00:00:50.320 and conversations with leaders making an impact across the sport.
00:00:53.280 Whether you're following the final push of love season
00:00:55.240 or just love the game,
00:00:56.340 Serving Pancakes brings you closer to the action
00:00:58.540 and the people shaping the future of volleyball.
00:01:00.660 Open your free iHeartRadio app,
00:01:02.500 search Serving Pancakes, and listen now.
00:01:05.080 Presented by Capital One,
00:01:06.500 founding partner of iHeart Women's Sports.
00:01:08.980 Hey, I'm Jay Shetty, host of the On Purpose podcast.
00:01:12.060 My latest episode is with Noah Kahn,
00:01:14.440 the singer-songwriter behind the multi-platinum global hit,
00:01:17.980 Stick Season, and one of the biggest voices in music today. 0.51
00:01:21.000 Talking about the mental illness stuff, 0.99
00:01:22.560 it used to be this thing that I was ashamed of.
00:01:25.360 Getting to talk about this is not common for me.
00:01:28.040 Right now I need it more than ever.
00:01:32.040 Listen to On Purpose with Jay Shetty on the iHeartRadio app,
00:01:36.060 Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
00:01:39.000 Hey, it's Nora Jones, and my podcast Playing Along is back
00:01:42.060 with more of my favorite musicians.
00:01:44.160 Check out my newest episode with Josh Groban.
00:01:46.940 You related to the Phantom at that point?
00:01:49.800 Yeah, I was definitely the Phantom in that.
00:01:51.760 That's so funny.
00:01:52.700 Share each day with me
00:01:56.800 Each night, each morning
00:02:00.500 Listen to Nora Jones' Playing Along
00:02:03.000 on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts,
00:02:05.780 or wherever you get your podcasts.
00:02:09.840 This is Gavin Newsom.
00:02:13.240 And this is Richard Haas.
00:02:17.020 Richard, thank you so much for taking the time to come on,
00:02:19.800 particularly at a remarkable time in world history, particularly in history unfolding
00:02:25.940 in the Middle East.
00:02:26.640 Today, President Trump seemed to have a day that he's been looking forward to for years
00:02:33.440 and years and years, pushing NATO to move from 2% to 5%.
00:02:37.260 What was your takeaway from this NATO summit, at least the first day?
00:02:43.860 And does Trump deserve, I think, a lot of praise for an accomplishment here?
00:02:50.660 I would argue President Trump, well, first of all, Gavin, good to be with you.
00:02:54.660 Thank you.
00:02:55.720 Look, I would argue President Trump deserves credit for spurring the Europeans to do what they ought to have done years before.
00:03:03.220 They ought to be putting forward a larger share of the effort for what's a common defense.
00:03:10.000 Just as an aside, I would say much more important to me than whether the Europeans spend 3% or 2.5% or 4.5% is how they spend it.
00:03:17.960 And I'd actually say something you'd probably agree with in public policy. How you spend money is almost always more important than how much you spend. And the problem with European defense is not just that they spend too little, but each country pretty much determines how it spends its defense euros.
00:03:34.280 So the whole ends up being less than the sum of its parts. So I would be pushing, if I were advising the president, I'd say, yeah, push them to do more. But secondly, also push them, in a sense, to become more European, rather than country by country by country, which is the way they often go about it.
00:03:52.980 But I think that part is good. The less good is I think he's introduced some doubts into the reliability of the United States and what you might call the automatic quality of Article V, America's willingness to go to bat for Europe.
00:04:08.060 And obviously, there's also some fairly significant differences about how to handle the most immediate threat, which is Russia and the war in Ukraine.
00:04:17.660 So I think it's I think it's a mixed bag. But yes, it's good to see the Europeans essentially getting pushed to do more. 0.56
00:04:24.440 And it's interesting just as you unpack and I appreciate that how you spend and where you spend.
00:04:29.380 It was interesting just looking at some of the details that that their direct spend in support of Ukraine would be considered as part of that contribution as it relates to that breakdown of five percent.
00:04:40.460 And it was also, though, interesting to see the breakdown within the countries.
00:04:44.460 Obviously, Germany looking to move quicker by 2029 with close to 70 percent increase in their domestic defense spending.
00:04:53.160 And then Spain, who was called out by the president today, looking not necessarily to to reach that new America.
00:05:01.140 Is that does that mean much to you or is that just that's just noise?
00:05:06.360 The most interesting part of that is Germany. 0.84
00:05:09.500 Less what Germany is prepared to do in defense, though doing more is welcome. 0.50
00:05:14.000 But Germany has changed its laws and essentially now is able to raise serious debt, which was something that modern Germany had an allergy to because of the whole Weimar experience.
00:05:25.440 And the fact that Germany now can really go into the markets and raise debt gives them far more capacity to potentially grow their economies as well as to contribute to national security.
00:05:37.740 And I'd even go so far as to say the most interesting figure in Europe right now is the new chancellor of Germany.
00:05:43.400 And even though he had a rough start and getting confirmed and so forth by his parliament,
00:05:47.960 I actually think that Chancellor Mertz is in a position to, in some ways, have Germany stake out the leadership position in Europe,
00:05:57.200 something that historically, since World War II, Germany's been reticent to do.
00:06:00.860 So I would watch that space, particularly since the French, the British and others are so gridlocked domestically.
00:06:07.980 I think Germany now occupies the critical position.
00:06:11.460 When you referenced the Article 5, sort of, you know, I think the president, when he was flying over, there was some ambiguity, once again, sort of creating some doubt and anxiety.
00:06:21.300 He seemed to shift tone a little bit when he landed.
00:06:24.980 But is that it's just that on again, off again relationship to the Article five?
00:06:29.400 Is that what you're referring to is sort of a lack of of certainty and confidence in the president?
00:06:34.240 Yeah, for those who haven't read the NATO treaty recently, Article five is the core of the agreement.
00:06:40.240 We're essentially an attack on one is considered to be an attack on all.
00:06:44.300 Curiously, it's only been invoked once in NATO's entire history.
00:06:47.800 And that was on behalf of the United States after 9-11.
00:06:51.800 it. But alliances depend upon predictability and reliability and dependability. And I would argue
00:06:59.600 that President Trump has introduced a significant degree of uncertainty into that, which I think
00:07:04.780 is counterproductive. He would argue perhaps it was necessary to get the Europeans to do more.
00:07:10.120 I would have said, well, probably there's better ways to do that. But that's where we are. And to
00:07:15.320 the extent Russia senses there's uncertainty there, Putin, who, as we've seen in Ukraine,
00:07:20.740 can be risk prone, it might be more likely to take risks. So I always believe that the best way to
00:07:26.100 deter is through certainty. So your friends know you'll be there for them. And just as important,
00:07:31.460 your enemies know you'll be there for your friends. So I would like for President Trump,
00:07:36.320 as the days and weeks and months unfold, to look for opportunities to make clear that whatever our
00:07:41.800 differences are with Europe over their level of defense effort, we see it as in our interest to
00:07:47.300 be there with them. In terms of the actual bombing itself, and I think by most objective
00:07:54.660 standards, it was a success, whether or not these sites were, quote unquote, obliterated.
00:08:00.320 That's a separate conversation. Is that your assessment that this was a success,
00:08:05.660 that in the spirit of what you just said around some certainty that the president wasn't bluffing
00:08:11.760 in terms of wanting to get diplomatic deal done, they appeared not to want to move in that
00:08:16.760 direction. So then he asserted himself militarily. I think it was the right thing to do. For years,
00:08:23.100 we've been playing this game with the Iranians where they were enriching uranium far, far, 1.00
00:08:27.540 far beyond levels anybody would need to generate electricity. So we all knew what this was about, 1.00
00:08:32.620 to put into place the prerequisites for a nuclear weapons program. I also understood
00:08:39.740 we couldn't allow Iran to get on the threshold, much less have nuclear weapons. We made that 0.99
00:08:45.020 mistake, I would argue, with North Korea. We don't want to have it now in this part of the world, 1.00
00:08:49.840 because if Iran ever got nuclear weapons, not only would they act more aggressively and pose 0.99
00:08:53.600 potentially an existential threat to Israel, but you know and I know the Saudis, the Egyptians,
00:08:59.140 the Turks, and others would follow suit. And the only thing worse than the Middle East we've known 1.00
00:09:03.640 is the Middle East I've just described. So I think what Israel and then the United States did 0.61
00:09:08.860 was warranted. We'll see what the results are. Whatever happened, the Iranian program was not
00:09:15.780 obliterated. Elements of their program, I expect, will have survived the attacks on the three sites. 0.78
00:09:21.880 More important, I don't know, you don't know, probably the president doesn't know,
00:09:26.360 what amount of uranium or number of centrifuges and so forth are under some roof of some warehouse
00:09:32.880 and some other part of Iran. I actually think going forward, Gavin, we have got to assume
00:09:39.220 just the opposite, that the Iranian program was not obliterated. But elements of that program
00:09:43.980 exist. And what's worrisome to me, I'll be honest with you, I would think that a lot of Iranian 1.00
00:09:48.760 leaders have said, hey, this never would have happened had we had nuclear weapons. We could
00:09:54.160 have deterred the Israelis and the Americans. So I worry that going forward, I think their 1.00
00:09:59.160 determination to develop nuclear weapons might, if anything, be even greater.
00:10:04.040 Well, you know, I want to just pick up on that point because that's an interesting observation
00:10:07.520 and an important one. And we'll get to North Korea as well in a second, because your reference
00:10:12.580 goes back to the opportunity the United States had under the Clinton administration to take out 0.53
00:10:17.480 their program before it proliferated. But I want to talk a little bit about the non-proliferation
00:10:22.480 treaty. People have brought that up since the 1970s. I think 200 countries were signatories
00:10:28.940 to that, including Iran. There were a number of countries that have developed nuclear programs
00:10:34.940 that were not original signers to that. Obviously, Korea and Israel, to the extent they have a
00:10:42.200 nuclear program, quote unquote, but certainly India and Pakistan. But those countries, as a
00:10:48.300 consequence, would make the claim you just made that they've had that deterrent. Now, Iran assumed
00:10:55.240 that they would not be bombed, I presume, under the terms of the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
00:11:01.140 Does that put at risk the entire notion of the Non-Proliferation Treaty, what's just occurred?
00:11:06.840 So let me give you a slightly convoluted answer. The Non-Proliferation Treaty
00:11:11.200 is only a small piece of the effort against non-proliferation. I don't think it's a wildly
00:11:17.400 successful piece in many ways because it really is a gentleman's agreement. We declare what
00:11:22.580 facilities we're doing certain types of research or engineering in, and then the inspectors come
00:11:27.720 look at them. Inspectors can't look at places that are not known. So the entire treaty in that sense
00:11:33.940 is based upon a degree of faith that I tend not to have. North Korea withdrew from the treaty and
00:11:39.860 there was no particular penalty or anything for them having done so. Turns out the most important 0.97
00:11:46.460 non-proliferation tool out there is not the treaty. It's called America's Alliances. By giving
00:11:51.620 countries the confidence that we are there for them, they then don't need to become self-sufficient.
00:11:56.900 And the biggest way to accelerate proliferation will be, for example, if the South Koreans or
00:12:01.060 others come to have doubts about their relationships with us. So don't get me wrong. I'm not saying
00:12:06.440 the non-proliferation treaty doesn't have some utility. And I think in particular, the inspection
00:12:11.060 provisions can be useful, but we shouldn't exaggerate its impact. And Iran, I would think, 0.96
00:12:18.660 is going to do and is going to do what it wants, regardless of its obligations under this treaty.
00:12:25.660 So back to what you were saying. I mean, so just let's speculate what happens going forward.
00:12:31.880 Obviously, this notion of regime change, people sort of pulled back a little bit, or at least
00:12:36.180 it appears the president's pulled back. I don't know if Bibi is pulled back on the notion of
00:12:41.340 regime change. But what won't change is their pursuit, presumably, of a nuclear weapon. 0.91
00:12:46.780 As you note, we don't know that the program was, quote unquote, obliterated, even if the
00:12:51.000 physical sites may have been.
00:12:52.500 We don't know where this enriched uranium is and centrifuges.
00:12:56.800 You imagine now, your concern is now, what, that they accelerate that program with the
00:13:02.720 darkness, meaning without any international inspectors?
00:13:07.240 That's my concern.
00:13:07.900 It might not be their immediate priority, which I think is to shore up the regime. 0.94
00:13:11.080 But at some point, I do think reconstituting a program will become a priority, which means, by the way, the day may come where Israel, the United States needs to once again use military force if we discover some activity going on and the Iranians won't voluntarily give it up. 0.92
00:13:29.020 You know, it's not normal that problems get solved. When I was the head of the Council on Foreign Relations, I used to discourage the fellows from using the word solve or solution, because that's just the way history works. So I don't believe whatever it is we accomplished the other day, and however much we accomplished, it didn't solve the problem. It may have reduced it, it may have set back the Iranian program, but that'll pop up again. 0.96
00:13:54.480 It's, by the way, you mentioned regime change. 0.98
00:13:56.580 It's one of the reasons that people, I think, are attracted to the idea. 0.54
00:14:00.560 If you can't solve the Iranian problem through military force or through diplomacy, then people say, what's left?
00:14:07.260 Well, let's get a benign government.
00:14:09.160 And I think that's why there's so much interest in regime change.
00:14:12.000 The problem is it's easier to talk about it than bring it about.
00:14:15.420 I don't see the prerequisites in place for it.
00:14:18.700 And in any case, you can't base your policy on it.
00:14:22.140 People don't like it when I say this, but it's a wish more than a strategy. If it were to happen, I think it brings problems but obvious benefits with it. But we just can't count on it. And no president can give the order to say, Secretary of Defense or State and say, get me regime change in Iran. They wouldn't have then the tools to necessarily carry it out.
00:14:45.400 When it comes to just issues of trust and, you know, I think one of the questions that I get and I ask myself all the time, I feel like for most of my adult life, I've been hearing Bibi Netanyahu say they're just months away, a year away from having weapons grade nuclear weapons.
00:15:03.940 And, you know, at a certain point, you just stopped believing it. But your assessment, you know, your own objective assessment this time did appear to be different, that they were getting closer and actually appeared to be within a matter of months in a position where potentially we had a weapons-grade weapon coming out of Iran. Is that accurate?
00:15:26.080 pretty much uh like this was a gathering threat it wasn't an imminent threat it was a gathering
00:15:31.400 threat and the question is how close now we know they had done most of the enrichment work they
00:15:36.540 need to do to get it uranium enriched plus or minus 60 that's not just 60 of the effort that's
00:15:43.040 actually close to the 90 of the effort for reasons of physics that i couldn't explain because i don't
00:15:48.400 understand them well enough but uh i think i'm right there what you don't know is why how close
00:15:54.820 they were on some of the other things, the actual fabrication of explosive devices, the bomb and so
00:15:59.480 forth. And there, there was the Israelis believe, and the economists published some very interesting
00:16:03.960 stuff about it, that they had made some breakthroughs, they'd had some secret programs
00:16:09.320 and so forth. And I think we have to be tolerant, just like after 9-11, we were less willing to run
00:16:17.900 certain risks, say about what Iraq could do. And this is not a justification for the Iraq war,
00:16:23.420 I was against it, but just, I understand some of the thinking. I think Israel, after October 7th, 0.86
00:16:30.600 had less tolerance of running certain risks in their case. So I just think the combination of
00:16:35.300 a change mentality in Israel, the evisceration of groups like Hezbollah, which couldn't really 0.96
00:16:41.960 attack Israel anymore, and this new intelligence, which suggested however far along the Iranians 0.66
00:16:48.140 forth, they were farther along. And I think for all those reasons, the Israelis decided to act, 0.91
00:16:54.660 and we came in behind. Does this keep Bibi in power for another extended period of time? 0.58
00:17:00.640 Well, he's got roughly, what, 16, 17 months to run before he has to, I think the elections are
00:17:05.000 scheduled for October of next year. It certainly helps. I mean, Israel, as you know, is deeply
00:17:09.980 divided about issues on democracy, Gaza, what have you, whether the religious can be drafted
00:17:16.640 and so forth. They are not divided on Iran. Left and right, hawk and dove. There aren't a lot of
00:17:23.280 doves in Israel when it comes to Iran. So it clearly helps, Bibi. It changes the conversation 0.89
00:17:29.220 a little bit. It brings Israel together. It's seen as an accomplishment. And he has. He has
00:17:33.560 changed in many ways Israel's strategic reality, given the change in Syria, Hezbollah, the weakening
00:17:41.800 of Hamas, whatever you think, however critical people watching this might be of what Israel's
00:17:46.680 done and how it's done it in Gaza. The reality is that Bibi Netanyahu in the last, what,
00:17:52.000 18 months has dramatically reduced the external threat to Israel.
00:17:59.240 On the Serving Pancakes podcast, conversations about volleyball go beyond the court. Today,
00:18:03.500 we have a little best friend compatibility test. Okay, how long have we been best friends? Since
00:18:07.520 the day we met. As the League One volleyball season heads towards its final stretch,
00:18:10.980 There's no better time to tune in.
00:18:12.540 You'll hear unfiltered analysis, behind the scenes stories and conversations with leaders making an impact across the sport.
00:18:18.100 Whether you're following the final push of love season or just love the game, Serving Pancakes brings you closer to the action and the people shaping the future of volleyball.
00:18:25.500 Open your free iHeartRadio app, search Serving Pancakes and listen now.
00:18:29.940 Presented by Capital One, founding partner of iHeart Women's Sports.
00:18:33.800 Hey, I'm Jay Shetty, host of the On Purpose podcast.
00:18:36.240 my latest episode is with Noah Kahn
00:18:38.980 the singer-songwriter behind the
00:18:40.860 multi-platinum global hit
00:18:42.440 Stick Season and one of the biggest voices
00:18:44.620 in music today. Talking about the mental 0.99
00:18:46.620 illness stuff, it used to be this thing that I was ashamed
00:18:48.880 of. Getting to
00:18:50.800 talk about this is not common for me
00:18:52.460 Right now I need it more than ever
00:18:54.280 Listen to On Purpose with Jay Shetty
00:18:58.800 on the iHeartRadio app
00:19:00.660 Apple Podcasts or wherever you get
00:19:02.680 your podcasts. Hey, it's Nora Jones
00:19:04.920 and my podcast Playing Along is back
00:19:06.880 with more of my favorite musicians.
00:19:09.000 Check out my newest episode with Josh Groban.
00:19:11.760 You related to the Phantom at that point?
00:19:14.660 Yeah, I was definitely the Phantom in that.
00:19:16.580 That's so funny.
00:19:18.120 Share each day with me, each night, each morning.
00:19:26.200 Listen to Nora Jones' Playing Along
00:19:27.800 on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts,
00:19:30.560 or wherever you get your podcasts.
00:19:32.420 In 2023, Bachelor star Clayton Eckerd
00:19:37.000 was accused of fathering twins.
00:19:39.080 But the pregnancy appeared to be a hoax.
00:19:41.380 You doctored this particular test twice, Ms. Owens, correct?
00:19:44.900 I doctored the test once.
00:19:46.700 It took an army of internet detectives
00:19:48.620 to uncover a disturbing pattern.
00:19:51.560 Two more men who'd been through the same thing.
00:19:53.820 Greg Gillespie and Michael Mancini.
00:19:55.820 My mind was blown.
00:19:57.460 I'm Stephanie Young.
00:19:58.840 This is Love Trapped.
00:20:00.260 Laura, Scottsdale Police.
00:20:01.720 As the season continues, Laura Owens finally faces consequences.
00:20:06.800 Listen to Love Trapped podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
00:20:12.820 This is an iHeart podcast.
00:20:15.680 Guaranteed human.