On this episode of Blessed Juneteenth, we talk about the Democratic National Committee's near-collapse, Donald Trump ranting about Juneteenth and a viral video of Kroger selling jingle-filled cake and cookie cakes. Plus, a call-in from a listener about the Iran nuke threat.
00:03:11.000Their donors are leaving, and they have record low approval.
00:03:14.000I kind of feel bad because it's just like you're kicking them when they're down, but I think of all political groups, this is the one you want to go after.
00:03:24.000We have them routed, and I don't know how they recover.
00:03:27.000Many have said that this is the oldest political party it is, the oldest political party in the world, and sooner or later it was going to come crashing down.
00:03:48.000Trump says within two weeks he'll make a decision on whether to attack Iran, which is perfect considering the White House also believes that it'll take Iran two weeks to get a nuke.
00:03:57.000And that's about how long it'll take for the USS Nimitz to get to the region.
00:04:00.000So it kind of sounds like Trump is like, give me two weeks.
00:04:03.000We're not yet prepared for an attack on Iran.
00:04:08.000So we'll talk about that and a whole lot more, my friends.
00:04:11.000Before we get started, make sure you head over to castbrew.com.
00:04:37.000And also, don't forget to go to TimCast.com and click join us to get in that Discord server, my friends, to hang out with like-minded individuals.
00:05:17.000We do have efforts to build physical community in the real world with our coffee shop.
00:05:20.000So don't forget, go to timcast.com, join us, and you'll also get to call in to our uncensored call-in show on rumble.com slash timcast IRL.
00:05:29.000But don't forget to also smash the like button right now.
00:05:32.000Share the show with everyone you know.
00:05:35.000Joining us tonight to talk about this and so much more, we got Nathan Halberstadt.
00:05:38.000It's great to be here on this blessed Juneteenth as we decided that we're going to describe it.
00:06:52.000The DNC is in chaos and desperate for cash.
00:06:56.000Under its new leader, Ken Martin, the Democratic National Committee has been plagued by infighting and a drop in big donations, raising alarms for Democrats as they try to win back power.
00:08:23.000It's interesting because the argument that we have right now with Trump, with Iran, with the economy, with the border, is that Trump's got to get it all done now.
00:08:32.000Otherwise, Democrats will win in the midterms.
00:08:40.000So I asked our good AI friend, Chet GPT, why were Democrats polling so miserably?
00:08:46.000And it aggregated some sources making the claim that because of the damage Joe Biden did in the last four years, people are continuing to get angry at the Democrats.
00:08:58.000It seems that the problems people are experiencing today, they are still blaming on the Democratic Party.
00:09:04.000I suppose the argument is that when your run-of-the-mill person tries looking into why things are inflating and costing so much money, they're not blaming Trump.
00:09:12.000They're looking at what the Democrats did in the past term, and the blame is still going to Democrats.
00:09:21.000I mean, you say remarkably, but as things have trickled out about the previous administration since the changeover, The American people have become very, very skeptical of not just the Joe Biden administration and the things that the Biden administration did, but also the media that was saying, hey, Joe Biden is fine, etc., etc.
00:09:44.000So I think that the loss of faith in the DNC is because they were all doing their best to hide a serious condition that the president had.
00:09:57.000Well, I think they also have a man problem.
00:10:02.000And they're trying slowly to recover from that.
00:10:05.000But every time that a man in the Democratic Party has an idea of how to fix that problem and appeal to men, they shout him down and instead want to listen to this ham planet Olivia Juliana, what she has to say as part of the consultant class.
00:10:22.000Gavin Newsom is trying to fix the problem with this podcast.
00:10:25.000I don't know how that's going for him.
00:10:27.000And then this guy, Ken Martin, I think this was a couple weeks ago, like Politico found this leaked audio where he was talking with, yeah, I think this is something we covered.
00:10:37.000Yeah, he was like infighting with David Hogg and he was saying like David Hogg was the reason why he doesn't feel like he can do this anymore.
00:10:44.000Like how much of a little bitch do you have to be for David Hogg to David Mogg you?
00:11:10.000Are the progressives in charge or are the old guards in charge?
00:11:12.000If the old guards are in charge, then they likely can make up any kind of donation deficit that they're experiencing now.
00:11:20.000Now, if the progressives are in charge, they're not going to get the same kind of donations.
00:11:23.000They're going to have to rely on the small donations from people on the street, you know, But then they're not even attempting to talk to major donors like him?
00:12:42.000So until they get that straightened out, they're not going to be able to find good leadership because the leader is I think the Democratic Party is going to go the way of Bud Light.
00:13:16.000So younger people who are now entering the political space, and I don't mean 17-year-olds who are turning 18, I mean 28-year-olds who are going to be entering their 30s soon, they're now starting to get politically active, and they're like, I don't want to be associated with whatever that is.
00:13:31.000There's the flashy issues like the trans issue, which, of course, put people off.
00:13:35.000And I mean, the activists pushed those.
00:13:37.000But if you think about the most significant...
00:13:46.000I'd say it's probably first COVID and then maybe second mass migration and then maybe third is inflation.
00:13:53.000And all three of these can be pretty squarely laid at the feet of Democratic Party and sort of the broader managerial classes set of priorities over the past decade.
00:14:05.000You layer on things like the trans issue.
00:14:07.000And it's just very difficult for the party to basically navigate forward.
00:14:14.000They basically need to come up with something that's more compelling.
00:14:17.000It's funny, because I see bumper stickers about trans issues, but not about inflation.
00:14:23.000Yeah, and really what this speaks to, and actually the article shows this, which is that the donors have pulled out, which means that the activists are still in control.
00:14:31.000And that's actually a sort of a bearish signal for the Democratic Party.
00:14:34.000And I think in a lot of ways, this is the Republicans' midterms to lose.
00:14:39.000I think the two things that could really set them back would probably be first some sort of a war that we get entangled in, and the second would be a recession or something like that.
00:15:00.000So I think the whole thing hangs on the economy.
00:15:04.000If the economy is good, I think – not that I'm advocating for this, but I think that the American people would deal with a war with Iran just so long as we didn't have major numbers of troops on the ground.
00:15:19.000If they had took a beachhead or took a place and there were Delta raids or whatever, like special forces raids, I think the American people would be OK with that.
00:15:28.000I think the American people would be OK with having strikes.
00:16:03.000And I mean, in this case, though, I think it seemed like the bosses are now potentially shifting over into supporting, or at least their support for the Democrats is softening.
00:16:13.000Well, yeah, I mean, when you have the Democrats go all out against tariffs, I mean, you basically swap positions between the two parties.
00:16:18.000That's going to be a huge sticking point for union bosses.
00:17:02.000We're dealing with our internal organization and our union members and what they want and what's going to maximize the amount of money that we bring in, right?
00:17:09.000So when you get a poll showing the Teamsters overwhelmingly are pro-Trump, you know where your market share is.
00:17:15.000And you know if you want to keep this up and you want to make money, you know what you got to do.
00:17:19.000The problem is, this is what happened to CNN.
00:19:41.000legacy media yeah that's why it was so ridiculously out of touch the other day when trump kind of tried to get a dig in at tucker carlson for not having a tv network like where have you been you knew that this was the podcast election that's why you were going on podcasts like he even talked about that with theo von with joe rogan that was very much yeah Like a podcast election.
00:20:06.000Those were where those were the places people were going to get news opinions and learn about what was going on.
00:20:16.000And Trump knew that, so why would he change his tune overnight just because, I don't know, Tucker is criticizing him?
00:20:25.000He just cannot take an ounce of criticism.
00:20:27.000I do think it's strange that Tucker Carlson said the Trump administration was negotiating in good faith with Iran, but then before that also said Trump was complicit in this war before the U.S. even got involved.
00:20:49.000Even what Trump is saying is self-contradictory because on one hand— You were supposed to believe that this was a unilateral strike that the U.S. was not involved in and perhaps was not even notified of.
00:21:03.000But also we were working with them the entire time and it was all a big ruse and we were trying to make them feel like they were safe just so we could strike when they were least expecting it.
00:22:32.000Now hopefully that faux anger at Trump will get enough liberals to watch the rest of this because Juneteenth doesn't need to be celebrated at the White House.
00:24:58.000That's Juneteenth commemorates the day Union soldiers went to Texas and found a couple of Democrats that kept slaves after it was already abolished.
00:25:08.000It's a holiday where we're like the Republicans got rid of Democrat slaves.
00:25:11.000Yeah, I think the cake story is actually illustrative of part of the problem that some people have with the holiday, which is that there's something cynical about the elevation of it during the Biden presidency.
00:26:07.000The point is, when you enshrine a federal holiday for a country that doesn't know what it is, it's not a real holiday in the sense that there's a cultural tradition where a nation comes together entirely as a nation to say, today is a day where we will celebrate something.
00:26:25.000So, as Trump pointed out, if we were to find every minority faction's sacred moments, You'd have a holiday every single day.
00:26:34.000And so the idea that the Biden administration is going to say a tenth of the population, literally 13% of the population, not even 13, it's probably less because not every black person celebrates Juneteenth.
00:26:43.000They're going to say there's a minority population that celebrates a holiday no one in this country has ever heard of, and we're going to elevate it.
00:26:49.000The reason why Kroger just put free on a cookie is because they don't know what it is.
00:26:54.000What's the color scheme of Juneteenth?
00:26:56.000There's a flag didn't be here, is there not?
00:26:58.000I like the idea that it was actually a black employee that decorated the cookie cakes and doesn't know what Juneteenth is.
00:27:05.000Well, the Juneteenth flag is like, what is it, green, black, and red?
00:27:22.000The nasty thing about Juneteenth, I think what leaves a bad taste in a lot of people's mouth, is because it kind of came at the same time when the NFL started doing the Black National Anthem.
00:27:29.000And it really felt like there was a secondary Independence Day.
00:27:32.000And I remember speaking to a lot of my Black friends, and they're like, we already have, and this is for everyone, Independence Day.
00:27:37.000So adding a secondary Independence Day felt a bit redundant.
00:28:55.000I mean, obviously, in a democratic electoral system, all factions are looking to basically solve for what's in their interest, and what's in their interest will sort of vary from faction to faction.
00:29:10.000And, yeah, I think there is some truth to the fact that I don't know how many people were demanding for this holiday from that faction.
00:29:40.000So when the Democrats are coming out and being like, oh, we have to give reparations, I mean, black people are going to be like, okay, give me money.
00:30:24.000I'm just saying, you know, if that were a real policy plan.
00:30:28.000They did pay reparations to Japanese Americans, so.
00:30:32.000Hey, my plan was to seize all the federal land from the Bureau of Land Management and use that to give the land to the black Americans who were owed it.
00:30:45.000Why should the federal government control like 40% of the land of this country under federal regulation?
00:30:53.000And this came up with the Bundy Ranch scenario where they were ranching for generations and the federal government came in and said, we hereby declare the land belongs to the federal government.
00:33:17.000Liberals organized a massive protest, the No Kings protest.
00:33:22.000In Utah, volunteer peacekeepers associated with the organizing group, which is called the 50501 movement, started shooting into a crowd of people and killed a guy.
00:34:20.000Maybe I'm wrong, but right now the news reports that we have in the video we've seen, he's just walking down the sidewalk, open carrying.
00:34:27.000Two peacekeepers draw, they yell at him, and then in the video you can see before the dude even reacts to what they're saying, one of the guys opens fire, firing three rounds at this dude, missing him, and killing a random guy.
00:34:42.000The crazy thing about this story is, the police arrested that guy, and they called him the shooter.
00:34:49.000But now, CNN's reporting, it takes out, Utah, no kings protest, what we know about the fatal shooting.
00:34:57.000Newly released video appears to show the man arrested on suspicion of murder for the death of an innocent bystander.
00:35:02.000No kings protest was Saturday, walking away with his rifle pointing down, moments before a volunteer peacekeeper opened fire in his direction.
00:35:15.000The bystander, Arthur Falassa Alu, was shot and killed by a peacekeeper who was aiming for the man with the rifle, believing him to be an imminent threat.
00:35:43.000I don't see how you can, at least the way that it's laid out here, I don't see how you can consider anything else.
00:35:51.000They say they ordered Gamboa to drop the weapon before one opened fire on protesters.
00:35:57.000Witnesses reported Gamboa was holding the rifle in a firing position and running towards the protesters after being confronted by the peacekeepers.
00:36:04.000No, I think he just grabbed it and started running away from the guys who were shooting at him for no reason.
00:36:16.000Peacekeeper fires three rounds, fatally wounding Alu and shooting Gamboa, who got a graze wound.
00:36:21.000They say detectives have developed probable cause that Gamboa acted under circumstances that showed a depraved indifference to human life, knowingly engaged in conduct that created a gun.
00:36:30.000They're covering up for the fact that liberal protest organizers shot and killed a guy.
00:36:37.000So they basically point out that after the peacekeepers with the 50501 movement opened fire, people started pointing to the Antifa guy with the rifle.
00:36:54.000I mean, it sounds like that's the case.
00:37:00.000It just proves the point that the No Kings protest, it really isn't a serious protest.
00:37:06.000It's basically a pre-planned media circus and any sort of narratives that don't align with the pre-planned narrative about the No Kings protest are sidelined.
00:37:16.000And of course, And the way it's told is somewhat biased, and this is even CNN kind of post-reform.
00:37:28.000But, I mean, the things that should also be mentioned about the No Kings protest is, I mean, it was old pretty much everywhere where there were gatherings.
00:37:36.000And there's just this general incompetence about the people, too, right?
00:37:40.000I mean, just randomly firing, missing.
00:37:42.000I mean, these people are they're basically not
00:38:07.000you know, people have talked about abolishing various institutions and organizations, but can I just say abolish CNN?
00:38:17.000New video obtained by KSTU shows a different angle of the shooting, challenging the original narrative.
00:38:24.000Police first said witnesses reported Gamboa pointing his rifle and ran at demonstrators after peacekeepers told him to drop his weapon.
00:38:31.000But the new video appears to show Gamboa's rifle pointing toward the ground, and he doesn't start running until after the peacekeeper fires his gun.
00:38:38.000The video also shows Gamboa jogging along the protest route and then ducking behind a fence, a move the peacekeeper told detectives he found suspicious.
00:38:46.000Gamboa can be seen on video through the slats on the fence, and it appears he bends down.
00:38:51.000Police have said he removed his rifle from his backpack.
00:38:55.000The rifle cannot be seen in this video.
00:38:57.000CNN has not independently obtained or verified the newly released video.
00:39:38.000Like, they probably wanted to end up in an altercation like that.
00:39:42.000Well, yeah, that's the problem with these protests is that it's the highest congregation of people with, like, low impulse control and emotionality in America.
00:41:24.000Yeah, it seems to me right now, at least, that just a week or two ago we had this divide between the populist right and the tech right that was emerging over this feud between Elon and Trump.
00:41:35.000But that's almost completely forgotten at this point.
00:41:38.000And now the fight is between the isolationists and the neocons.
00:41:43.000And the question is, will this be as easily resolved?
00:41:48.000Because unless Trump can find some sort of a middle path, And so I think that the risk here from a coalitional perspective is maybe even more significant than the divide that we saw between Trump and Elon.
00:42:04.000Do you think that Iran can do it without the United States' help?
00:42:07.000Do you think Iran can do it without Israel?
00:42:09.000Israel can take care of Iran without the U.S. help?
00:42:12.000I think that Israel has currently, I mean, Israel has started the war.
00:42:17.000Because they claim to be able to do it.
00:42:18.000Israel currently, I think, has an asymmetry in terms of the technology and the military capabilities that it has versus Iran.
00:42:24.000And so I think it's possible that they could do it themselves.
00:42:27.000I think if the U.S. were not defending Israel, they'd probably be in serious trouble.
00:42:32.000And there's questions, we talked about this the other night, but I was watching more again on Fox, that Israel's starting to run out of interceptors.
00:42:41.000But in regards to, I guess, the coalition and the left and what conservatives are paying attention to, you know, maybe what ends up happening to the Democratic Party is that it really does turn into moderate MAGA versus conservative MAGA or something.
00:42:59.000You're going to have – there's going to be moderate neocon and disaffected liberal types.
00:43:07.000And then you're going to have the staunch conservative anti-war.
00:43:10.000Like, basically the left is excised in its entirety.
00:43:13.000And you're going to start seeing liberals becoming disaffected with the Democratic Party, as we are, joining the Republicans, which will create a new left-right dichotomy where you have the left wing of the Republican Party and the right wing of the Republican Party, and that sets the tone for the new political landscape.
00:43:29.000I mean, you already kind of see it with the Tucker Cruz interview where you're seeing people on the left like, I hate to say it, but Tucker's a great, you know, he did a great interview here, I gotta take his side.
00:43:38.000So it's like, yeah, we're already kind of seeing the left filter into the right's positions on these issues.
00:43:43.000And yeah, there could be a point in the next few years at this rate where, yeah, they're just completely out of the picture and they have to take sides with the current Republican dichotomy.
00:44:05.000And you've got this, what do they say?
00:44:08.000The Washington Examiner's Robert Schmad reported on Qatar's big dollar efforts in May, writing perhaps Qatar's biggest victory in the post-election right-wing media campaign thus far was securing an interview between Tucker Carlson and Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani in March.
00:44:22.000The interview, which has racked up nearly six million views across X and YouTube, was friendly, with Carlson praising the country.
00:44:28.000Schmad added, Foreign Agent Registration Act records show that Lumen8 Advisors, LLC, a legal consulting company for which very little public information is available, helped facilitate between Carlson and the Qatari dignitary.
00:44:43.000The embassy of the state of Cutter pays Lumen8 Advisors $180,000 per month to provide media and communication coaching and consulting services.
00:44:52.000Loomer took that report a step further, claiming Carlson's interview with PM Altani was a paid propaganda piece in which over $200,000 was paid by the embassy of the state of Qatar for Tucker to the interview.
00:45:02.000A Qatari official, all while knowing Hamas is an Iranian proxy and funded by Qatar.
00:45:08.000Loomer basically laid out that Tucker was getting this money.
00:45:14.000Tucker's in an interview with Steve Bannon saying he was never paid, and she said he was a liar and then showed this.
00:45:20.000The insinuation, of course, is that Tucker was given $200,000, but this has been the narrative that's emerging largely not just from Laura Loomer, but from many that are pro-Israel and critical of those who are Israel critical.
00:45:37.000I think when you look at this, you can see there's a foreign lobbying group.
00:45:40.000Probably reached out to Tucker and said, how can we make this happen?
00:46:11.000I will also add, come on, look, I get people, like, tweeting at me, like Elijah Schaefer, he tweeted at me, because Theo Vaughn went to Qatar and then comes back and then says he thinks Israel's committing a genocide.
00:46:25.000I point that out and then get accused of claiming he's getting paid by Qatar to do so.
00:46:29.000Well, no, but I mean, what was his trip?
00:46:36.000I don't know if anything's going on with Qatar funding or paying anybody or anything like that, but this is the current divide right now with a threat of war.
00:46:43.000You have this narrative now going more mainstream, particularly with Laura Loomer, that Qatar is paying a bunch of conservatives to be anti-Israel.
00:46:52.000I mean, does she have evidence of any of that stuff, or is she just throwing accusations?
00:46:59.000I think everybody's just throwing accusations.
00:47:08.000They'll say, Cutter paid $200,000 for an interview with Tucker Carlson, not to Tucker Carlson for an interview.
00:47:17.000So, look, we do stage shows, and we have a media company that comes in and sets up all the cameras and does all the work, and we pay for that.
00:47:26.000So if someone said, Tim Pool paid X amount of dollars for an interview with Insert Celebrity, it's like, no, no, no, that was a production company.
00:47:33.000But that's how you can use weasel words to make it seem like that.
00:47:39.000I mean, Theovan did go to Qatar, and he's got that video of him wearing the local garb or whatever, and then he comes back and says, Israel's coming to genocide.
00:47:50.000It was a really wishy-washy statement.
00:47:51.000It was non-committal, and now he's very much in the anti-intervention camp.
00:49:01.000I mean, in the election season, right, it came up that Tim Walts had been to China 30 times or something like that.
00:49:06.000And so I do think whenever there's these sorts of foreign trips, I think there should be questions asked of public figures in general.
00:49:19.000But yeah, the Qatar thing here, it doesn't seem like there's a ton that's substantiated, at least at this point.
00:49:26.000I do think it's interesting that there's a lot of personalities that have, in the past couple of years, maybe even the past year or so, gone very heavy anti-Israel very quickly.
00:49:39.000I mean, it does feel like it's a bit of a, it's like the edgy, it's like a containment breach.
00:49:45.000Because, like, this next generation of political pundits are just completely allergic to any foreign intervention in the Middle East, rightfully so, because it's been such a disaster.
00:49:54.000And, yeah, obviously going to ask questions of what were the incentives for us to go into the Middle East.
00:49:59.000But at the same time, when they just completely fixate on Israel.
00:50:04.000Yeah, you do start to ask questions like, well, it's weird that they did visit countries that are extremely adversarial to Israel, and then they walk away with this new agenda.
00:50:12.000That being said, on the flip side, if you watch the interview with Ted Cruz, I mean, Tucker wasn't picking on Israel.
00:50:18.000He was just saying, let's not go to war with Iran.
00:50:22.000Yeah, it was literally a struggle session.
00:50:25.000And like Ted Cruz is like, he's generally very good in interviews, even combative interviews.
00:50:30.000So it was like, you know that it was totally like just at like, No, he felt like he took a knife in the side.
00:50:44.000And I got a question for you guys, because there was one exchange that I thought was really weird, and that was the issue of the Bible says, you know, blessed are those who bless Israel and cursed are those who curse Israel.
00:50:55.000And Tucker's point was, the Bible doesn't literally mean the current political state of Israel, does it?
00:51:04.000I mean, yeah, I'm a Christian and you could go into all the theology, but the divide is dispensationalism versus covenant theology.
00:51:10.000And a lot of evangelicals subscribe to dispensationalism, which is every promise that God made to Israel is literal.
00:51:16.000He is talking about the current state of Israel.
00:51:19.000And people that subscribe to covenant theology say, well, when Paul addresses the church and calls them Israel in the New Testament in 1 Corinthians, he's saying that the church has basically absorbed all of the promises made to Israel.
00:53:16.000It's a very uniquely American Christianity, too, because it blends what makes America great with what makes Christianity great, and the result is something very nasty and awful.
00:55:53.000It's a literal reference to the people of Israel, and so that includes today.
00:55:58.000Then there's going to be a subset of that, which would mean, right, because they're obviously going to make the argument that, no, no, obviously the Jewish people are the people of Israel, and that's where they were, and that's where they are, so that counts, right?
00:56:09.000So there's going to be a subset where it says, no, no, it literally means Israel, but...
00:56:16.000There used to be, like, up until the 1950s, I even had relatives that were involved in this movement.
00:56:21.000It was called British Israelism, and they basically believed that the inhabitants of the British Isles were a lost tribe that migrated there.
00:56:28.000And it was actually, like, not ubiquitous, but it had a lot of people that adhered to that in America and England and Canada.
00:56:35.000So it's like the black Israelite movement for British people?
00:58:18.000And he's like, OK, let's maybe the actually in all seriousness, the scary thing is maybe the whole negotiating play where he's like, I want to negotiate is to hold off Iran for the time being so that we can mobilize our military effectively.
00:58:42.000If they're, you know, if they're like, oh, we have to move more assets into position, then it's not just, you know, B2s with 30,000 pound bunker buster bombs, right?
00:58:53.000This is moving significantly more manpower into the area if they're waiting for a hold.
00:59:01.000There's two there now, if I understand correctly, and they're waiting for a third.
01:01:11.000And they seem completely incapable of doing anything about it.
01:01:15.000Their marketing, their PR, and their efforts are so pathetic that I'm just like, Okay, in 10 years, the U.S. will completely cut off Israel.
01:01:24.000The right is largely, we shouldn't be funding Israel, Israel is going to do what they want.
01:01:57.000They have a huge demographic crisis because the Hasidic population triples every 10 years.
01:02:02.000So they're going to have a situation in 30 years where they're going to like have serious demands for a much more theocratic government.
01:02:09.000Right now, they kind of the secular government.
01:02:10.000So, yeah, like you said, I mean, they have.
01:02:13.000limited amount of political capital and that political capital has an expiration date on it that is rapidly approaching i think what you're good no no good i think what you're seeing on the right today at least is that more and more people though are asking that any intervention could be explicitly tied back to some sort of a cost benefit analysis for american citizens right and so and so if that's if that's what you're solving for is for what's in the best interest for the prosperity and security of american citizens then
01:02:42.000you know there's sort of a spectrum of basically potential different pathways you could go down and the base case for the united states is something like no intervention and then there's a there's a there's a sliding scale basically where there's some negotiations and then there's some aid arms you go all the way down to boots on the ground or regime change etc etc and i think increasingly on the right
01:03:09.000And I think what makes this challenging is we have people like Lindsey Graham, for example, who very recently basically made the claim, I believe this was on Twitter, where he said, first, Iran will get nukes, they'll nuke Israel, and then they'll nuke America.
01:03:27.000And really what that's doing is in the base case scenario, in the no intervention side, he's elevating the perceived cost of no intervention, basically.
01:03:34.000But what I would argue is people on the right have been sort of gaslit on this issue a number of times.
01:03:39.000If you think about Lindsey Graham specifically said the exact same thing about Putin, where he said first Putin would go into Ukraine, then he'd take Europe, and then he would land on America's shores.
01:03:48.000And in my case, I'm not a specific Israel-Iran expert, right?
01:03:53.000I don't actually know what the exact chances are that Iran will nuke New Jersey.
01:03:57.000But, you know, Lindsey Graham already played those cards when he claimed that Putin was going to do an amphibious assault on Connecticut, which was never reasonable.
01:04:09.000And so I think then you add in also around.
01:04:14.000And I think people on the right are—it's reasonable to be skeptical when these people sort of bang the same sets of arguments.
01:04:21.000Now, it might be that we need to—there might need to be some aid or negotiations or things like this that would end up being in the best interest of Americans.
01:04:29.000But it's really important that we fixate on American citizen interests as the core thing we're solving for here.
01:04:36.000I was just thinking about how we were talking before about Qatar.
01:04:41.000The accusations that they're funding all this influential operation, you know, Israel's got money.
01:04:46.000Why wouldn't they be doing the same thing?
01:04:47.000So if it is the case that Qatar is funding a bunch of sentiment opposed to Israel, and, you know, we do know that, like, Al Jazeera Plus was super woke.
01:04:58.000The issue is, why isn't Israel doing the same thing?
01:05:03.000And more importantly, why aren't they winning?
01:05:53.000Well, okay, then the reality is they're weak and pathetic.
01:05:57.000Well, I think they're also dependent on the goodwill of previous generations where it was kind of a consensus, especially among like political wonks, that Israel is the only democracy in the Middle East we have to support this.
01:06:08.000So I don't even know if they had a media apparatus to whirl up in time for a situation like this where within 10 years the wind completely blew the.
01:06:26.000If there's a bunch of countries that hate Israel and their citizens are spam-blasting social media saying, like, don't support Israel, where are the individuals who support Israel to counter that message?
01:07:53.000I think that maybe the alternative to sock puppetry in favor of Israel is fomenting a message on the right that you shouldn't care about this conflict and that you shouldn't talk about it.
01:08:07.000And that's something, that's a sentiment I've seen on the timeline in the past week especially.
01:09:28.000And I don't think that that's necessarily people getting paid to say that, but the trickle-down effect is like that is the message that's getting echoed throughout.
01:09:39.000Do you think that Ukraine had the grassroots support here in the United States, or was it mostly...
01:09:56.000And not only that, I mean, look at the flack that I got when I said, okay, so the story is – There were three Ukrainians accused of bombing the Nord Stream pipeline.
01:10:08.000They did it to force the West and Russia into a war to their benefit, which I would say is a criminal action against a NATO ally.
01:10:17.000And I said, that makes Ukraine an enemy of this country.
01:11:32.000I'm not going to drag this into drama, but there are prominent conservatives who three years ago were not talking about Israel and now routinely talk about Israel.
01:11:40.000And from a PR standpoint, this is pathetic in terms of Israel's strategy.
01:11:48.00018 to 49 year olds went from Now 50% are.
01:11:55.000No country is going to be like, that's a good thing.
01:11:58.000With the passage of time and as boomers die, I think Republicans see an obvious shift where Gen Z and millennial people on the right are not going to have popular support for Israel.
01:12:14.000I think that it might have something to do with less religiosity in those generations, that they didn't absorb those dispensationalist ideas.
01:13:19.000Israel's PR tactics, cyber war, and informational war is one of the worst I've ever seen.
01:13:25.000And you can look at countries that have done a way better...
01:13:30.000And now what we have is, sure, October 7th was bad, but the bombings that Israel's engaged in have gone viral.
01:13:38.000And they are being spread around like crazy to the point where there are people on TikTok that just spread photos and videos of dead babies.
01:14:01.000Because of the Israel-Gaza war, And whatever is going on with social media, the mass spreading of these videos, you generate a movement of people that are going to protest in the street and do all of these things.
01:14:13.000If there was a suppression of any conversation pertaining to the war, you wouldn't get activists because they would not know what's happening.
01:14:19.000If you don't know what's happening, you can't partake.
01:14:22.000So the point I'm ultimately making is Israel is either incapable and the West is either incapable or unwilling to engage in PR strategies.
01:14:34.000To defend the image of Israel and support thereof.
01:14:37.000It's also a numbers game, too, because with Ukraine, the support for Ukraine was purely political.
01:14:45.000But like the dichotomy with Israel and Palestine is completely different because there's kind of a kind of an ethnic component to it because it's pan-Arabism.
01:14:53.000Like from Morocco to Indonesia, those are Muslim countries and they kind of feel this connection with – So that's part of the reason, like, if you're a political pundit and you post something that's critical of Israel or pro-Palestine, you're going to tap into a massive audience that you otherwise wouldn't be able to tap into, and you get massive engagement.
01:16:13.000it's got 3,500 retweets 1.6 million views it's like yeah and then he made he made a rock star it must be a joke uh There was a story two weeks back that I think adds an interesting layer to this.
01:16:32.000The headline was BCG fires two partners over Gaza aid work.
01:16:36.000And the headline is, Really what happened was two Boston Consulting Group partners, and if you're not familiar with Boston Consulting Group, it's sort of a prestigious, elite American consulting firm, and they picked up two contracts in Gaza, but basically on behalf of Israel, and were doing implementation work there.
01:16:59.000And the reason why this story is interesting is that they essentially got fired for doing that work on behalf of Israel.
01:17:07.000And what I think is, what's notable about that is that basically some of this sentiment has moved beyond just activist groups and things like this, right?
01:17:15.000That's a serious institution that's quite influential in America, where I think that sort of work probably would have slid by maybe five years ago or something like that.
01:17:26.000But in this case, the partners were fired for basically executing work, and you can read more on the details of it, for basically executing work in Gaza on behalf of Israel.
01:18:05.000So over the weekend, Kirk took questions at a Turning Point USA-sponsored event in Dallas, Texas, where a 14-year-old girl asked for his advice on attending college and the pros and cons of higher education.
01:18:15.000After the girl mentioned she was interested in pursuing a career in political journalism, Kirk asked all the girls in the audience to raise their hands if their top priority is to, quote, get married and have kids.
01:18:25.000Many of them did, including the girl asked the question.
01:18:27.000And then he said, you should go back to getting the missus degree.
01:18:31.000Slang term for going to college to find a husband.
01:18:33.000And he said, no, seriously, and just to be clear, that's why you're going to college.
01:18:36.000Don't lie to yourself like, oh, I'm going to study sociology.
01:18:58.000Like, my mom went to a really Christian, it was like a Baptist university, and she said that there would be literal booths.
01:19:05.000I mean, this was the 80s, so this was 80s or 90s pre-social media, but there would be literal booths on the quad of men that were prepared to go out in the mission field, and they're like, I need a wife before I go.
01:19:14.000So there is an element of truth to that.
01:19:16.000If you're a woman, you're single, maybe go to a Christian school and go to the booth.
01:19:20.000No, this is a way to saddle yourself with debt, and it's not going to be a great selling point.
01:19:30.000I didn't have a very normal college experience.
01:19:33.000I dropped out of college, but I went to a Catholic school, a very small one.
01:19:37.000Speaking from my conversations with female students there, almost none of them had any career ambition whatsoever.
01:19:47.000Almost none of them had any interest in using the degrees that they were pursuing.
01:19:53.000And there was even a workshop that was put together at my school for women who wanted to become stay-at-home moms.
01:20:02.000Because most of them wanted to become stay-at-home moms.
01:20:05.000And they were just at college because that seems to be the default.
01:20:08.000What you do when you have no other direction in life.
01:20:11.000And all the girls there just didn't know why they enrolled.
01:20:17.000And there was a demand for something like this.
01:20:19.000And this isn't going to get as much attention.
01:20:22.000But it reminds me of that uproar over the Harrison Butker speech at, I forget, where was that?
01:21:18.000And I think that the millennial generation largely, as well as Gen Z, are being raised off TV and movies that create this idea and this narrative, especially in media, that women want careers.
01:21:30.000And then you see how women act around babies and how men do, and you're like, women want babies.
01:21:38.000But I think that maybe what men don't seem to relate to in the female experience is just how much of a paradigm-shifting, life-altering event might be.
01:21:59.000Because they see that there's kind of a dearth of capable, competent men who aren't commitment phobic, who want to be providers.
01:22:43.000The point is if young women are like, I want to have a family, but men suck, they're going to start going towards wealthy, successful men who have the means to support multiple women.
01:23:58.000And I'm glad to see that a lot of women are kind of decoding the lies that were told to them by their doctors, by Hollywood, by their own parents, sadly, that they should kind of despise their own...
01:24:17.000We would live on a totally different planet.
01:24:46.000So that's why the dating world just makes zero sense now.
01:24:49.000You can go on subreddits where it's men going their own way or whatever the female equivalent is, and every piece of advice on there is basically just telling you to ignore that voice in your head telling you, stop, stop, stop, this is wrong.
01:25:00.000So we've got to break this one down, but the data shows that women rate a higher life satisfaction.
01:25:07.000However, that has nothing to do with happiness.
01:25:10.000Guys are always going to rate themselves lower because that's how men are basically built, to always be striving to be.
01:25:15.000You're always slightly below where you want to be.
01:27:34.000The men, they walk in together, and the guys turn right to the bar, and they go to the fridge, and the women went, ooh, and they all ran back and were going, ooh, what, the baby?
01:27:43.000And we all laughed and it was fun and it was cute.
01:27:45.000And I have no disdain or anything for the men for wanting to do that.
01:27:48.000And I'm just like – Women are always gushing over babies.
01:27:59.000And I'm like, man, you really start to see it.
01:28:02.000This whole machine state system is imbalanced.
01:28:06.000I have no problem with them getting careers and being political journalists or whatever they want to do.
01:28:10.000I'm just saying that there is a machine state apparatus that tells women to be girl bosses is imbalanced.
01:28:19.000It is not congruent with what women are likely to tend towards.
01:28:25.000I mean, my favorite point on this issue is, if you compare North and South Korea, and this is not an endorsement of North Korea's political system, but South Korea has the worst fertility rate in the world, bar none.
01:29:28.000Part of this is that children have been...
01:29:39.000If you're in New York City and you work at a bank or something like that, you could seriously go three months and just not see an infant.
01:29:46.000And I think that might partially explain the phenomenon that you saw where everybody was rushing to the couch in order to interact with the child.
01:29:55.000If you're a part of a church or things like that, you might, in those cases, interact with children.
01:29:59.000But even then, you see churches sort of segment by age demographics as well, right?
01:30:04.000Where there will be a church where all the young adults go to and another one where all the boomers go to or whatnot.
01:30:10.000The other element here though is just Yeah, yeah.
01:30:12.000So the children are sort of separated away.
01:30:15.000Yeah, it's a weird stigma against your baby crying where you have to go into this soundproof room so that you don't disturb everyone during the sermon, which I think is...
01:30:28.000If your church isn't crying, it's dying.
01:30:38.000The most outrageous disturbance possible is the sound of what you sounded like 30 years ago.
01:30:43.000Well, I think it's a lot of people who also didn't grow up with large age differences between their siblings, so they don't even remember a baby being in their household.
01:30:53.000That includes me as one of three children.
01:30:56.000I don't remember my younger brother being a baby.
01:30:59.000I didn't hold him or take care of him as a baby because I was too young.
01:31:02.000So there's a lot of alienation that starts even from the beginning of your life.
01:31:34.000I think one other element here, though, is also just broader declining social trust.
01:31:38.000And any time you're raising children or any sort of a family life will generally require lots of aunts and uncles and friends and babysitters and people who you rely on to help or just neighbors to play with the kids to help raise the child.
01:31:52.000And I think what we've obviously seen is declining social trust.
01:31:56.000And some of that's driven by technological change.
01:32:01.000And we also see globalization and other things as well, basically making it so that most people are living in a much more isolated fashion.
01:32:10.000And in that scenario, it's just way scarier to raise a child, right?
01:32:14.000If it's you alone and a husband or wife, that's much more difficult versus if you're embedded in a high-trust community of 300 different people who you've known your whole life.
01:32:25.000And it's just much easier in that context to raise a family.
01:32:31.000I mean, I think, like, when I was a kid growing up, like, we had a neighbor babysit me.
01:32:35.000And I think now, I think about my neighbors I have now, I wouldn't trust them to watch the frog that was in the studio earlier, let alone a baby.
01:32:42.000Like, it's like Mad Max in my neighborhood.
01:32:44.000Yeah, and there's this, like, poverty of multi-generational households.
01:32:46.000A lot of people complain about boomer grandparents these days who want nothing to do with their grandchildren.
01:33:00.000And then there's, you know, fear-mongering on social media about what parenthood will do to your life, and basically that it will screech it to a halt.
01:33:12.000I do push back on, like, the multi-generational thing.
01:33:14.000Not that you're saying it's like the fix for anything, but like in Spain and the Mediterranean countries, they have multigenerational living.
01:33:22.000Children live – So it's like, perhaps there is an element of being around children or being around your grandparents that cross-generational living, but there's an additional factor that's preventing the birth rate, or that's killing the birth rate, because the Mediterranean countries have worse birth rates than Western Europe and America.
01:33:42.000I'll just make a point about where our society is.
01:33:45.000You were mentioning crying babies on airplanes.
01:34:25.000Well, how would you feel about your infant breastfeeding from another woman?
01:34:30.000It's a similar reaction to, like, eating raw intestine, where it's like, I understand that it's a normal thing humans have done forever, but it's still kind of gross.
01:35:39.000One element you talked about with the wet nurses, that element still, that mechanism still exists in the upper class.
01:35:43.000Like if you walk around the Upper East Side of New York City, you're going to see a lot of babies and a lot of toddlers, and they're going to have like Haitian...
01:35:51.000They're not breastfeeding, but you're seeing this element of somebody else raising your kids.
01:35:56.000yeah there was like this whole piece in the new york times about it and like the culture of nannies in manhattan and that's why that's why baron having a slovenian accent as a child was such like a rare thing in new york because that meant he spent time with his mom and for a billionaire to be raised a billionaire's kid to be raised by his own mother was like an anomaly.
01:36:14.000And I also just want to mention another factor for why women seem to be so wary of the idea of getting married and having children is because a lot of them, their parents are divorced and like that's your primordial model for what relationships are supposed to look like.
01:36:57.000Since we're in West Virginia, I'll make a note about the state.
01:37:00.000The state right now has around a 50% retention rate, meaning if you were born here and you were raised in the state, it's a 50% chance you'll stay.
01:37:08.000A 50% chance you move somewhere else in a different state.
01:37:31.000Yes, that's exactly right, depending on which way you look at the figure.
01:37:34.000And so, what we basically see is that in America today, that number has been increasing, basically, the number of people who are choosing to leave the state.
01:37:44.000And I think that some of that also plays a role as well.
01:37:48.000Basically, if everybody is leaving their hometowns where they have more social fabric, essentially, that has downstream implications in terms of when they get married, and then even when they do get married, sort of what family life looks like and such going forward.
01:38:03.000And so in a state like West Virginia, you can look at a West Virginia-specific marriage rate, which is also, for prime-age adults, is right around 50% as well.
01:38:15.000But I think the more interesting story is about the people in America who basically sort of, they graduate from high school, they go to a college that's out of state, and they go to a coastal city for a job after college, then they job hop a few different times.
01:38:27.000And that's, of course, happening for both men and women.
01:38:32.000Usually along the way, they do find somebody who they love and they do get married eventually.
01:38:36.000But the question of whether that's the right sort of pipeline for the average American to go down in order for there to be strong family formation and strong communities, I think that that's something that still needs to be investigated further.
01:40:24.000I remember in the new Blade Runner movie with Ryan Gosling where he had basically an AI girlfriend and then he had to basically kill her and he was really stoic about it.
01:40:31.000That movie came out in 2018 and I remember watching it like, that's so insane.
01:43:17.000I have heard that for, like, immigration, if you can eat a bacon cheeseburger, that should be the preliminary test to be admitted to the United States.
01:44:38.000I've had this business idea for a long time where I want to start a North Korean barbecue restaurant called Kim Jong-un's Barbecue, and you have to beg them to give you more food.
01:46:21.000Or if you want to go for a fight, you go to Waffle House.
01:46:24.000If you've got some anger to take out, there's going to be a fight.
01:46:26.000In West Virginia, the Waffle House is very tame.
01:46:29.000In West Virginia, Waffle House is like, you know, you have that trope of the British guy with the corncob pipe, and they're sitting around talking about, you know, the politics of Liechtenstein.
01:46:40.000That's what Waffle House is in West Virginia.
01:48:15.000Copian Papi says Trump shot down Iranian missiles, preventing them from hitting their target that they fired in response to an unprovoked attack.
01:48:21.000He's already interfered in Israel's war with Iran.
01:48:47.000It's like you're at a bar with your girlfriend and then she's screaming at some guy saying, you ain't going to do nothing because you're a loser.
01:49:37.000Barry Ann McGowan says, would you give away free skateboards to everyone that grew up 50 years ago and couldn't afford one?
01:49:43.000Why give away BLM land that we taxpayers already paid for?
01:49:46.000Because I don't want the federal government to have it.
01:49:49.000And so the compromise is, well, I'd prefer not to give it away just on the basis of reparations, but I do slightly prefer the government not having it.
01:50:10.000I've met dozens of them that will tell you everything from Crimea, Ukraine, and Taiwan to their GFs cheating on them was foretold in the Bible.
01:55:38.000That one gamer says, 22-year-old who can't afford a home here, how long will it be before the Warhawks go after Sadat, I mean Gadah, I mean Khamenei?
01:57:07.000Ram Tech says, Phil, do you think we could see the Democratic Party fragmenting from this point on?
01:57:13.000I mean, I think that there's going to be some kind of restructuring in the Democrat Party just because of the fact that they can't decide what the Democratic Party stands for.
01:57:21.000Do they stand for progressives or do they stand for blue dog Democrats?
01:57:27.000I would actually say the Republican Party has just sort of completed going through this sort of metamorphosis, right?
01:57:32.000I mean, there's previously the Buckley fusionism, combination of the Cold War hawks.
01:57:36.000The religious right is for the free marketers.
01:57:39.000And that has evolved into the modern MAGA movement, which is a combination of what we've been talking about, the populist right, the tech right.
01:57:45.000To some extent, the Christian right also still plays a role in the coalition.
01:57:49.000And the Democratic Party seems like they're in a state of flux right now, almost like where we were, sort of between the Bush era and, let's say, sort of peak MAGA, like Trump 2.0, coming into 2025.
01:58:04.000And there's all these open questions, right?
01:58:05.000I mean, in the past, the unions were a part of the Democratic Party.
01:58:11.000Also, in the past, the sort of broader academic consultant managerial class was all sort of firmly in the Democratic Party, but a lot of them have been sort of destabilized by certain, you know, sort of the Harvard and McKinsey consultant types.
01:58:26.000Their grip on power has been slightly destabilized by some of the policies of the Trump administration.
01:58:33.000And then the other, I mean, really the client group of the Democratic Party up this point has been this sort of migrant underclass, and also with the deportations and other Trump policies.
01:58:43.000I think that their coalition has been weakened, and I think they are in many ways quite disorganized.
01:58:49.000And a new coalition will emerge, but it's entirely possible that the Democratic Party could look quite different.
01:58:58.000In the next election here in 2026, it could be something like what we were talking about before, where a disaffected faction coming out of this Iran-Israel question either folds into the Democratic Party.
01:59:09.000I've also previously talked about how certain factions in what used to be the religious right could very naturally slide into the Democratic Party, sort of the Christianity Today, Wheaton College, even some of the dispensationalist types.
01:59:21.000This is a massive number of people that they generally hold to egalitarianism.
01:59:48.000I would say that, which group specifically?
01:59:50.000The one you're talking about, the religious group that you think that could slide into the Democrat Party.
01:59:54.000Yeah, I would say that the leaders, for example, such as David French or people at Wheaton College and other, David French writes for the New York Times.
02:00:01.000Yeah, exactly, these sorts of people, they, I think that up And I think that a few sort of bones thrown their way.
02:00:17.000They hate Trump way more than they hated Biden.
02:00:21.000And these people have tens of millions of followers who could potentially sort of shift in that direction.
02:00:26.000So just like we gained the union voter, I would argue that there's a possibility where they gain basically the dispensationalist Christian.
02:00:33.000They're going to gain the whole monitor vote?
02:00:49.000He represents a pretty sizable—they love sort of the decorum, and these are generally people who are obviously more pro-interventionists, and so this could also be a sort of a trigger or sort of a catalyst.
02:01:01.000You don't think those people are already Democrats?
02:01:03.000You think those people have been voting for Donald Trump?
02:01:06.000I think David French has been—did not vote for Donald Trump.
02:01:09.000But there is a group of people who follow and listen to him who I think perhaps were, you know, they voted for Romney and McCain and Bush and maybe voted for Trump the first time, but are sort of poised to shift in to vote for maybe a center-left candidate.
02:01:24.000I think the abortion issue is going to be make or break for them because that's kind of the one thing they all rally around.
02:01:30.000And maybe what that looks like is maybe the Democratic Party softens on that issue or throws a bone, that bone or a different one towards them.
02:01:37.000I think that in some ways, in some ways.
02:01:44.000And you're right to identify that as the key issue.
02:01:46.000I just don't think their base has an appetite to moderate right now.
02:01:48.000I don't think the base has an appetite to moderate at all.
02:01:52.000The base of the Democratic Party right now is the most progressive thing that I've ever seen in the United States.
02:02:01.000I think they're going to get a Trump from the left.
02:02:03.000They're going to get an outsider who's going to come in and galvanize the base.
02:02:22.000The Democrats cannot abandon it because it's a solid 10% of their base, but it sours the majority of that.
02:02:30.000I could see, and I'm not saying him specifically, but someone in the strain of a Mark Ruffalo could easily have a pathway.
02:02:37.000I mean, certainly in regards to a charismatic person trying to come in, but they're going to have to adhere to ideas that sour with most people.
02:02:43.000So the Democratic Party is going to end up being 20-some-odd percent of the country.
02:03:14.000You can follow me on Axe and Instagram at TimCast.
02:03:16.000We'll be up at rumble.com slash TimCast IRL.
02:03:19.000Make sure you use promo code TIM10 to sign up and get $10 off your annual membership.
02:03:26.000And yeah, Nathan, do you want to shout anything out?
02:03:29.000So, I currently work at New Founding, and I would say that if you're a founder specifically, somebody who's working on something you'd consider to be a critical civilizational problem, our DMs are open on X. You can find us at the New Founding handle.
02:03:52.000We go live every Monday through Friday at 3 p.m. Eastern.
02:03:56.000You should send me validation on Instagram at MaryArchived or you can send me hate on X. That is also MaryArchived and I'm trying to become TikTok famous right now.
02:05:42.000If I were approaching this story as someone who didn't know what was going on, and I saw that picture of Joe Rogan's face, and then this, it looks like he's looking at junk.
02:07:13.000They've only gotten out like 200,000, so it'd have to be self-deportation.
02:07:16.000The more pressure you put, like there's a lot of people that have poo-pooed the idea of self-deportations and stuff, but the more pressure you put on illegal aliens here, the more difficult you make it for them just to live here and do normal things, the more will go away.