A grand jury is being brought in to investigate the Trump assassination, Kamala Harris says she and Tucker Carlson don t always agree, and more. Plus, Nate Silver's predictions for the 2020 Democratic primary are swinging wildly, and we have a special guest to talk about it all.
00:00:30.000Some are saying, could it be maybe just a fall guy?
00:00:33.000So that they can pass the buck off to someone and say it's their fault, they're the reason for the security lapse, and they'll call it negligence of some sort.
00:00:40.000What we do know is that thanks to human events and America First Legal, we have gotten confirmation of a grand jury being impaneled in the Trump assassination attempt.
00:01:02.000Then, of course, we have—this one was weird.
00:01:04.000This morning or yesterday, Kamala Harris put out this letter from Tucker, a conservative who doesn't agree on everything, and it really did feel like she was trying to trick people who only read headlines into believing that Tucker Carlson Gave her a, you know, a fist bump and a nod.
00:01:24.000Not really an endorsement, but I know we can work together on certain gun control issues or whatever.
00:02:19.000If you enjoy the morning show and TimCast IRL, then please become a member at TimCast.com so that we can sustain this company and our mission, and you can help keep me alive as I work 60-hour days.
00:02:30.000But also don't forget to smash that like button, subscribe to this channel, share this show with your friends.
00:02:34.000And I'll add, I didn't have a show this morning.
00:02:36.000Um, because at some point, 16 hour days crashes into your face like a tractor trailer.
00:02:42.000And so, uh, this morning I just, I was, I was just wiped out and I wanted to prioritize being able to get this nightly show up for you guys.
00:03:48.000That's what I do with Mines for like a decade while we were starting that company is just the ethics of social media and like how addictive should you... I just love it.
00:03:55.000And also a special shout out to Casper's Graphene Dream.
00:04:27.000attorney has impaneled grand jury to consider criminal charges in Trump assassination investigation.
00:04:33.000The Western District of Pennsylvania has impaneled a grand jury to investigate the attempted assassination of Donald Trump on July 13th in Butler, PA.
00:04:40.000A letter obtained by Human Events from America First Legal reveals that a records request for information on would-be assassin Thomas Matthew Crooks was denied because those records are within the scope of a grand jury subpoena.
00:04:54.000I know the speculation is, could there have been a second shooter?
00:04:57.000Could this be someone in intelligence?
00:04:59.000It could be as simple as they want to charge his dad.
00:05:03.000They say that the gun may have come from his father.
00:05:06.000This may be similar to other stories we've heard in the past where they say the father was required to keep the gun secure.
00:05:11.000We don't know exactly what this could be.
00:05:13.000And I'm not trying to imply that the father did anything wrong or in any way committed a crime.
00:05:17.000I'm just saying some people may want to jump immediately to, I bet they're going to have a patsy for this and they're going to say someone did something criminal.
00:05:25.000It may be like a local street dealer named Crazy Gun.
00:05:30.000Sold him a gun illegally or something.
00:05:32.000It could be something really, really light.
00:05:33.000However, it is still big news because it implies they are seeking to actually find criminal culpability in how the Trump assassination happened.
00:05:41.000They're going to say the letter from the Community College of Allegheny County in response to attorney Wally Zimelong denies the request for records on Crooks pertaining to his student files, records, documents, communication, disciplinary records, or other data containing his name.
00:05:53.000Quote, Please be advised that your request is denied on the basis that it requests records that relate to an ongoing criminal investigation which are exempt from disclosure.
00:06:02.000Specifically, the records that you have requested are within the scope of a grand jury subpoena issued to CCAC.
00:06:10.000By the United States District Court for the Western District of Pennsylvania, in which the U.S.
00:06:14.000Attorney's Office has confirmed relate to an ongoing criminal investigation.
00:06:18.000The purpose of a federal grand jury is to consider criminal charges against a target or range of targets.
00:06:24.000This is the first indication that a grand jury has been impaneled in the district to investigate the attempted assassination.
00:06:29.000So Jack Posobiec was talking about this earlier.
00:06:31.000It may actually be something really simple.
00:06:35.000But it could be something even much more complicated.
00:06:49.000Not even a patsy, but a scapegoat to say this is the person responsible for what happened, and then pass off the responsibility from themselves.
00:06:56.000And the special agent from the Pittsburgh, the FBI's Pittsburgh field office did have a meeting with the press today where he said, based on our investigation so far, we have not been able to determine a motive, although it wasn't, you know, clearly political.
00:07:28.000And his parents were both found guilty and incarcerated in relation to their inability to keep a gun out of, you know, what they, you know, everyone, the government has said it was a trouble, a clearly troubled student's hand.
00:07:41.000And the difference in that case is that Ethan Crumbly's parents never called the cops at any moment in time.
00:07:46.000Now, Crooks' parents at one point in time were notified police.
00:07:50.000They were concerned Crooks was missing, the rally was happening.
00:07:53.000It's a material fact that they notified police.
00:07:55.000So that almost gives credence to the fact that they knew something and maybe they didn't divulge enough information.
00:08:00.000And Crumbly was a minor in the care of his parents, right?
00:08:08.000I want to put something also important on this radar, is that, you know, during Black Lives Matter, there was not a prosecution after a grand jury convened for Michael Brown's death.
00:08:17.000For the first time ever, we saw the Washington Post and the New York Times crawl into statistics on federal grand juries, how often, when they convene, do they lead to indictments, and they said 99.9% of cases, when they convene, an indictment happens.
00:09:22.000But at least there's that first level.
00:09:24.000The indictment is not a statement of guilt.
00:09:27.000It's, we think this guy may have committed this crime, so there should be a trial over this.
00:09:32.000If the jury agrees, and it's very easy to get an indictment, then you move to the next stages, which may be arrests, Or, it really depends on the crime.
00:09:42.000So, instead of getting an arrest warrant, they have to go through a jury, a grand jury, to get the warrant, basically?
00:09:48.000I'm not a lawyer, so a lawyer would probably explain way better, because I don't actually know why.
00:09:53.000You cannot, before, without a grand jury indictment, unless there's enough preponderance of evidence to initially arrest, but once you're actually charged, usually there's an indictment.
00:10:28.000Usually a district attorney will decide, I want to have this person indicted before you're charged with a significant felony like distribution of narcotics.
00:10:36.000And I do think they can issue their own indictments.
00:10:39.000I mean, again, I'm not a lawyer, so I don't know exactly the process, but there have been instances where people have been arrested before the indictments were issued.
00:10:46.000And I don't know what's proper or not, but what I can say is, grand juries will look at the evidence, not determine guilt, just determine that there should be a trial over this.
00:10:55.000So if there's like a video of a guy beating a woman, and then she's found dead, and then they find, you know, a bloodstained glove in his house, they say like, look, this guy should be arrested and charged, we think this is why, they say okay, arrest him, and then bring the evidence to trial and let him out as a defense.
00:11:07.000Then they issue the indictment, they go arrest the guy, So there's a grand jury that'll get the arrest going and then there's an actual, just a jury that will decide if they're guilty or not.
00:11:45.000I believe there's a law basically, most states have a law about children having access to weapons, but these are minor children, these are young children.
00:11:51.000If you own a rifle, you store it how you want to store it, it might, if it gets stolen, it's not your fault someone stole it, it's the criminal who stole it.
00:12:00.000And there are reports about Matthew McCarthy- Depending on the state, some states might just be like, don't know, don't care, they're evil, you know?
00:12:05.000The reports about Matthew Crumbly come from this report that he's hired a big lawyer and that, you know, he's been speaking with the FBI and stuff like that.
00:12:11.000I think that's why people feel like it's the simplest explanation because we're now seeing this pattern of parents of gunmen being investigated as part of the crime.
00:12:22.000The Pennsylvania, the local cops kind of got dragged through it on this one.
00:12:26.000Like they got blamed for a lot of the mismanagement that the Secret Service was supposed to be overseeing.
00:12:30.000So if they're like, yo, we're going to actually look into if there was negligence by the secret, can they like charge the Secret Service with with crimes?
00:12:37.000Well, the FBI, again, when they did their their special agent, Kevin Rojek, who was doing this press conference today, was saying, you know, The man who took out Crooks in the end was ultimately a Secret Service sniper, and we're so grateful for the support we've gotten from local police.
00:12:53.000And, you know, they're kind of, I think, trying to offer a united front, mended fences approach, because I think you're right.
00:13:00.000Initially, Director Kim Cheadle really seemed to be saying, oh, yes, we're in charge, but also it was the local police who messed up by not securing that building.
00:13:09.000And I can only imagine if you're a local policeman on the ground saying, What the heck?
00:13:16.000Like, you guys are in charge of this, you don't give us any support, and then you're blaming us?
00:13:20.000Oh, in a community that favors Trump, if you were in charge of the local police that got blamed for not putting Overwatch on that building?
00:13:33.000And the FBI is in charge of this investigation now.
00:13:35.000And don't forget that the FBI placed five Secret Service agents on leave.
00:13:39.000So we don't know if that's what level of negligence the FBI is placing on these people, but certainly the FBI believes five individuals should be placed on leave.
00:13:48.000And is that in relation to this grand jury?
00:13:49.000I mean, it's... That's not been confirmed.
00:13:53.000And that's why I find, again, the timing of this press conference today where they're saying, well, we did actually get access to Thomas Crooks' encrypted emails.
00:14:01.000You know, they weren't that sophisticated.
00:14:04.000We were able to access them and, you know, we're just looking at them.
00:14:06.000Like, they keep saying they're trying to find motive and they are still not telling us anything, but yet they are clearly moving forward on some front.
00:14:13.000What if it's as crazy as they actually criminally charge Secret Service for either negligence or even crazier, some kind of involvement?
00:14:42.000If Secret Service agents are placed on some sort of criminal charge for negligence, it certainly begets more questions who instructed them.
00:14:49.000I mean, Secret Service has become politicized, arguably, ever since Secret Service put the kibosh on an agent coming forward during the armed forces investigation into whether or not troops were left in Vietnam.
00:15:01.000I don't know if you guys know about that.
00:15:04.000Essentially, a Secret Service agent testified that he heard a conversation between a US president and someone from Vietnam negotiating troops that were left behind and apparently Vietnamese left behind troops they didn't give them all give the United States all the troops back because they wanted the United States to pay reparations and apparently as late as the 80s someone testified that
00:15:30.000And then ever since... And what happened is this person was going to testify in front of the Armed Forces Committee that McCain was the chair of.
00:15:38.000And lo and behold, the Secret Service kind of got in control of this guy and said, you know, we don't, you know, the Secret Service has known not to speak up for secrets.
00:15:46.000So this would have been a phenomenal moment.
00:15:49.000I certainly implore you guys to do some research into this Armed Forces Committee investigation and the Secret Service agent who said, I think we left people behind in Vietnam.
00:15:59.000One of the darkest stories in US history, whether or not we did.
00:16:02.000And John McCain's involvement potentially in that.
00:16:09.000I think the Secret Service is not supposed to require, necessitate, usually, American, you know, trust.
00:16:14.000I mean, Secret Service is supposed to be an apolitical entity protecting the president, but obviously, you know, recently it's become politicized, you know, not being distributed for RFK, you know, being used for Obama and his daughters.
00:16:28.000Decades, you know, a decade after his administration.
00:16:31.000So we've seen something happen to the Secret Service that we've seen happen to every other agency in DC, which is they become politicized, they're in control of the left, and, you know, they kind of operate in symbiosis with the FBI and this kind of deep state.
00:16:45.000So yeah, I think Secret Service is less of a problem than the FBI, but certainly the fact that this is an open investigation gives now Feds more control over the situation.
00:16:55.000You know, remember, the feds are still investigating whether or not James O'Keefe stole Ashley Biden's diary.
00:18:10.000But now, with the Secret Service being in charge of the protection of Trump during the Butler rally, and them leaving that You know what was also suspicious?
00:18:19.000When I was a Project Veritas press secretary, we submitted information about a CNN producer who was involved in some questionable sexual activity with some minors, and there was this odd police department spokesperson I was dealing with, and he was very political from the onset.
00:18:35.000Which is fine, we deal with it, but this guy was especially political.
00:18:38.000This guy is now the Secret Service spokesperson, Anthony Guglielmi.
00:18:42.000And when I saw his name at a hearing... He pops up everywhere, doesn't he?
00:18:46.000I said, this guy, he got promoted from the Fairfax County Police Department, this guy, Anthony Guglielmi, who stifled us in that investigation.
00:18:53.000And now he works for the Secret Service.
00:18:55.000So they very obviously promoted someone to that role, who has a history of kind of burying information and working within the symbiosis of corrupt government.
00:19:03.000And if you know Fairfax County, you know, they're kind of one of the arguably one of the most corrupt police entities, you know, they've been accused of all
00:19:11.000sorts of corruption, you know, they're so close to DC. Who is that guy you're
00:19:14.000Anthony Guglielmi. Yeah, who's that? He's the former spokesperson of the
00:19:19.000Fairfax County Police Department, so anything that happened in Fairfax County,
00:19:23.000you know, he was the one communicating to the media.
00:19:26.000And like I said, he stifled us in that investigation.
00:19:28.000I thought nothing of it, but when I saw that he was now promoted to Secret Service Spokesperson, I knew the only reason he got promoted is because he is a, you know, he's a competent chill.
00:19:48.000But I mean, I think that's true for, you know, the fact that the head of the Secret Service was actually someone who was specifically assigned to Biden's detail and had left, who didn't stay with the agency during Trump's presidency.
00:20:00.000That, to me, indicates some sort of political devotion to a certain party over another.
00:20:04.000I mean, if you were really like working your way through the Secret Service, wouldn't you either stay with the Secret Service always, because like you said, it's supposed to be apolitical, or He's their chief communications officer.
00:20:14.000That's right, he was the spokesperson during the Jesse Smollett stuff.
00:21:09.000FBI says would-be Trump assassin had no identifiable political ideology.
00:21:14.000Quote, we have not uncovered any credible evidence indicating the subject conspired with anyone else, said Special Agent Kevin Rojek.
00:21:21.000Now, we did talk about, just a moment ago, in the previous segment, for those that are just joining in this segment, we talked about the grand jury that has been impaneled in the Trump assassination attempt.
00:21:32.000I'm going to go ahead and say, just with as much confidence as I've said repeatedly, I believe there's official capacity involvement in the Trump assassination, whatever that form may be.
00:21:58.000The photos show the firearm's collapsible stock, which investigators say may have been used to conceal the rifle at the site.
00:22:03.000Well, I'd like to point something out.
00:22:05.000To the average person, who does not know anything about weapons, they see a photo of the gun broken into two different pieces, and they assume collapsible stock probably referenced something about the gun being broken into two pieces, and that he was easily able to put in a backpack.
00:22:21.000Well, collapsible stock is the stock right here, and it moves like four inches.
00:22:25.000So, to imply that he could move the stock 4 inches in one direction or the other, if it's even 4 inches, and that's how he concealed it, is an absurdity.
00:22:34.000But they're trying to trick people, it would seem.
00:22:37.000Now, there's already been reporting that he was photographed walking around with the weapon anyway.
00:22:45.000That's been a cognitive dissonance for me.
00:22:47.000You said that he was seen carrying the rifle.
00:22:49.000I was hanging out with Luke Rutkowski doing The Best Political Show, and he was talking about the collapsible stock, meaning that you could take the gun apart into two pieces and conceal it in a backpack, but maybe Luke was wrong about that.
00:23:00.000Is different from what kids so there are there are certain weapons where you can break them into two pieces There are certain weapons where they actually can fold as well.
00:23:08.000I don't know if this is that I'm not a gun guy I can just tell you that the stock see okay.
00:23:12.000Look look at look look on the screen This right here that little piece you press it and you can move the stock forward and backward They have those at all the gun stores over here all the time.
00:23:22.000And they're like, here's a collapsible stock.
00:23:24.000And they go, it makes it so that you can adjust it for your arm length needs or whatever.
00:23:29.000But they're using that to imply that's how he concealed it, and that's silly.
00:23:35.000That's why it's obviously presented with a backpack.
00:23:37.000And again, this is all part of this press conference that I was talking about today.
00:23:42.000You know, it's really, to me, seems like they are trying to start steering the ship on this narrative with Rojek, you know, he said he gave a lot of information.
00:23:53.000One of the things that he covered was this timeline saying there were reports that he, you know, Crooks was spotted here at this time.
00:23:59.000We can confirm with visual surveillance evidence that he was actually over here at 426 outside the security perimeter.
00:24:08.000You know they give the timeline of he was only on the roof for about six minutes.
00:24:11.000We can confirm this through body camera and local business footage that he fired off eight rounds.
00:24:16.000Like they are acting as if they are confirming and giving you the full story but I think obviously the fact that they are now we're over a month out from this and they're still saying we don't know what the ideology is and there's really nothing to say in his emails or his online information. They did talk a lot about his search history
00:24:31.000today. One of the lines that stood out to me was how far was Oswald, how far
00:24:36.000was Oswald from Kennedy and the fact that he was specifically googling like
00:24:39.000where Trump was going to stand on stage. You know, they they'll point
00:24:44.000out that he was Who made this announcement?
00:24:47.000of 2023 he would research campaign Trump campaign events and when is he going to be in Pennsylvania
00:24:52.000and occasionally would Google the it looks like the Biden campaign as well but then he seems to
00:24:57.000continue to just be fixated on Trump. It's hard for me to believe that they are still sort of
00:25:01.000discerning a motive when also these searches seem to be pretty specific. Who discovered these searches
00:25:08.000who who made this announcement? The FBI. Okay. That's where this photo came from too. Okay.
00:25:12.000I'd love to hear FBI give a statement on the status of these international bank accounts that the shooter allegedly had.
00:25:19.000I mean, I heard that that was a confirmed report.
00:26:05.000And to me, this is the equivalent of, you know, authorities in Tennessee saying the
00:26:09.000Covenant school shooter had no kind of motivation.
00:26:11.000They can't tell what the motivation was, even though they obviously have a manifesto there.
00:26:15.000I think that they are just not wanting to incite any kind of tension before an election that could indicate that, you know, It's a left-wing motivated person.
00:26:25.000Obviously, I don't know that for sure.
00:26:27.000They haven't definitively proven it either way, but it's hard for me to believe that after all of this time, they're basically saying like, oh, he has multiple encrypted email accounts.
00:26:38.000We got into them, but we're still looking through them.
00:26:41.000Initially, they were saying he didn't use social media and then it appears that he was on some kind of account.
00:26:46.000If this guy was a Nick Fuentes incel right-wing extremist, they would have divulged that information quickly because, you know, it would have been brief.
00:26:53.000You know, Nick would have had his meeting with his FBI agent and they would have briefed it.
00:26:58.000But yeah, you know, if this was actually a right-wing person, the FBI would have released it.
00:27:01.000So clearly this indicates the fact that they don't know anything.
00:28:05.000What's interesting, you have MSN saying Shooter had three encrypted overseas accounts, and then you have the USA Today doing a fact check saying he didn't have these accounts.
00:28:13.000But the FBI said that they were overseas-based encrypted email accounts.
00:28:20.000I mean, I can understand that there are a lot of people trying to get some information out there.
00:28:27.000If you're in a position where you don't really trust what the FBI is going to say.
00:28:30.000I mean, this says, at a congressional briefing with the FBI and Secret Service, they divulged that Crooks had accounts in Germany, New Zealand and Belgium.
00:29:02.000It's just like, stir the pot, make it as crazy as possible so you have no idea what ingredients are in there because we got an election coming up.
00:29:08.000That's what it sounds like is being done right now.
00:29:11.000They want to take away the political power that Trump would get from what a massive story this is.
00:29:18.000I think that after the Kamala Harris is now the nominee bump, especially after the DNC, the media is now going to sort of calm down on that a little bit.
00:29:29.000She's not really releasing any policy.
00:29:30.000She hypothetically is going to talk with her, you know, best friend Tim Walz tomorrow.
00:29:36.000The media is now kind of ready to turn back to the assassination attempt, and I think that's why the federal government is trying to get out ahead of the narrative right now, because there are a lot of Americans who rightly have questions.
00:29:47.000I mean, even if you are not a huge Trump fan, the fact that one of the most influential politicians in our country could be attacked like that on stage, that Cory Comptor could die because of it, and that two other men could be severely injured, I mean, it just, it doesn't make people believe that we are as safe as, you know, Hypothetically, the government is trying to say we are.
00:30:08.000No, we're like, I was thinking earlier how we live in like this organized danger of a system.
00:30:13.000We drive by a car at 50 miles an hour.
00:30:19.000Presidential candidates walk outside in the middle of a crowd and just talk like, and we just trust that no one's going to open fire for the most part.
00:30:27.000Yeah, because the fear mongering that we get from Democrats on guns is BS.
00:30:34.000They didn't even have Trump on stage when they had all the victims of gun violence on stage.
00:30:41.000They claim that AR-15s are dangerous and need to be banned because of mass shootings, when handguns are typically what's used in mass shootings.
00:31:43.000I would presume, yeah, M1s are pretty big.
00:31:45.000You would more likely use the lighter weapon in an assault, if you need to run through a trench.
00:31:49.000I'm just saying, I'm just thinking about it, because Luke had one, and Luke's was pretty heavy.
00:31:53.000And so I'm like, when we were at the range, I don't know, Luke's was pretty heavy.
00:31:56.000And so, I learned this specifically because, I'm in West Virginia, but I've got an M1A, and, well, you can't bring it to Maryland, it's an assault weapon.
00:33:38.000I didn't think I would think that as an adult.
00:33:43.000You know, you respect the potential for catastrophe, and there are a lot of people out there who think they can do whatever they want, because there's no one who can do anything back to them, and this leads to bad circumstances.
00:33:53.000And then you look at places where people get to be armed, and they think twice.
00:33:58.000Do you want to get into a fight on equal footing with these people?
00:34:00.000No, but bullies, you know, you create a jurisdiction where only criminals have guns, and criminals are gonna enjoy that.
00:34:05.000I'm gonna look up who said that quote, by the way.
00:34:07.000Let's jump to the story from the Daily Dot!
00:34:10.000Why is Kamala Harris getting accused of trying to frame Tucker Carlson?
00:34:14.000The letter was from an Alabama, a man in Alabama named Tucker, because she did this.
00:34:19.000And right away, anybody who's saying that's exactly the game she's playing.
00:34:24.000She learned this from Tim Waltz, I imagine, because Waltz is the master of assumptive manipulation.
00:34:30.000Make a statement that you know will mislead people because of the assumptions they will make from it, and then let them believe falsehoods.
00:34:37.000Kamala Harris tweeted, Tucker, thank you for writing to me.
00:34:41.000While we may not agree on every issue, we both know that every person in our nation
00:34:45.000should have the freedom to live safe from gun violence.
00:34:47.000The majority of Americans stand with us in support of common sense gun safety legislation.
00:34:51.000And there's this letter that looks like it was written by a, you know, 12th grade or whatever.
00:34:56.000Vice President Harris, one of my absolute favorite things in America is how people of different backgrounds and beliefs have the freedom to communicate with each other.
00:35:03.000We're so blessed to live in a country, blah blah blah.
00:35:05.000In the spirit of establishing common ground, even though I am fairly conservative and we may have our disagreements, blah blah blah.
00:35:12.000Now, immediately, everybody says, Tucker Carlson, we get the point.
00:35:17.000Ed Krasenstein, you know him, you'll love him, says, I bet this letter is from Tucker Carlson.
00:35:21.000To which I responded, remember when I called you evil?
00:35:24.000Tucker Carlson responded with a fake letter of his own from Kamala.
00:35:29.000Letter from a fan, dear Tucker, I can't believe I'm writing you this letter and there's hearts over every, you know, and then it's signed Kamala.
00:35:37.000This looks like—so why is she being accused of trying to frame Tucker?
00:35:42.000It's she's trying to trick people into thinking Tucker has been cordial with her and offered her up some support, when he absolutely has not.
00:35:49.000Because most people only read headlines, you're going to hear rumors of, oh, Kamala—here's their intention.
00:35:57.000Their intention is that someone's going to say, oh, did you see that thing where Kamala was thanking Tucker because they, like, found some common ground on gun control?
00:36:03.000That's going to what we call Purple Monkey Dishwasher into liberals being like, even Tucker Carlson was saying we should have gun control!
00:36:13.000We only see it because we're on the internet every single day.
00:36:15.000But if this was back 20 or 30 years, this would have landed on the news and people would have just genuinely believed that it was a conservative praising Kamala Harris.
00:36:25.000I was reading, it's Robert Heinlein, beyond the horizon, an armed society is a polite society.
00:36:42.000It's really sounding like she's having a conversation with a prominent conservative person that she personally knows she doesn't agree with.
00:37:04.000Tim Walz does it when he says stuff like, you know, when I deployed and the things that I saw, and then I come back and they say, you're on your own, buddy.
00:37:13.000I just can't believe our mental health issues in this country.
00:37:37.000And the joke was that he's got PTSD from getting bad spaghetti or something.
00:37:41.000Granted, he was doing security work in Europe.
00:37:43.000That's not where the war was, but he wants to trick you.
00:37:46.000He wants you to assume, when he says, when we were deployed for Operation Enduring Freedom, we came back and they gave us the horse whisperer and said, you play nice.
00:37:56.000Or when he says, you know, millions of families like mine have been affected by IVF, right?
00:38:00.000But actually, he didn't use IVF as a fertility treatment.
00:38:03.000He used a different fertility treatment that doesn't involve creating an embryo outside of someone's body.
00:40:45.000Saying that Trump is a threat to democracy and then the Democratic Party installing a candidate with no primary is the threat to democracy.
00:40:53.000And they say, accuse your opponent of what you are doing.
00:41:01.000That's like what the is that like a antifa origin of anti Marxist code book essentially they they live and die by that book.
00:41:09.000Marxism is the idea of if you want was that just about getting power is like making your movement successful.
00:41:16.000Yeah, it is the most blatant, dumb manipulation.
00:41:19.000But if people aren't ready for it, then I guess it's easy to find if you hear it enough times.
00:41:24.000Well, the next headline is going to be, you know, conservative political commentators freak out about Kamala Harris level like they're going to act like the response is calling it sort of a manipulation tactic.
00:41:35.000is actually just like conservative hysteria. I mean, this is the thing. It's do something wrong,
00:41:40.000get caught, and then just act like the other people are being unreasonable. And we'll do
00:41:43.000this over and over again until we get to election day. And I think that, you know, should be a
00:41:48.000concern for Democratic voters, right? Obviously, you know, Republicans are Kamala Harris fans. But
00:41:55.000if you're a moderate or independent, and this is her strategy, which is to sort of be manipulative
00:41:59.000to get her way, what do you think she'll be like in the White House? It'll get worse,
00:42:04.000because at that point, she has no reason to try and sort of even play moderate at all. And I think
00:42:09.000American people, we were talking about this a little before when we're talking about low trust and intelligence agencies and the FBI and CIA.
00:42:16.000If you think your president is just there for herself and is going to do or say anything to promote left totalitarianism to her own benefit, I don't think that she is beloved enough to pull that off.
00:42:31.000Clarification, it was not Marx, nor Rules for Radicals, to accuse your enemy.
00:42:38.000Joseph Goebbels, the Nazi propagandist.
00:42:40.000Accuse the other of that you are guilty.
00:42:43.000It is so blatant, and I don't know what the right adjective is to describe what that is.
00:42:50.000I mean, you should know by now that that is a totalitarian tactic.
00:42:55.000If you study Nazism, which you should, and understand the history of how a small political party can seize control of a government, it's pretty blatant.
00:43:04.000You repeat a lie enough times and then people will start to believe it.
00:43:06.000That was another one of their tactics.
00:43:08.000I mean, Marx may have said something similar, too.
00:43:10.000You accuse your enemy of what you are doing.
00:43:13.000That is... Well, that's how they got out of the Burisma scandal.
00:43:19.000Joe Biden was guilty of a quid pro quo.
00:43:23.000He went to the president of Ukraine and said, I want a personal political favor in exchange for the United States' congressionally approved loan guarantees.
00:43:31.000And they said, you have no authority to block that.
00:43:32.000He says, call the president, see what he says.
00:43:33.000If you don't fire the prosecutor in six hours, you're not getting a billion dollars.
00:44:20.000Uh, there's an old, uh, con artist trick where what they'll do is they'll take a dummy wallet with their ID in it, empty, wait for you to leave an ATM.
00:44:28.000Most people, like, you can see the screen, you can see, uh, their receipt, you know how much money they took out, or you pick a small number.
00:44:34.000If you don't take money out of the ATM, they get at least 20 bucks.
00:44:37.000Reverse pickpocket, call the cops and say, I'm following the pickpocket who's got my wallet right now.
00:44:41.000The cops show up, you point them and say, that person stole my wallet.
00:44:43.000The cops search the person, find your wallet, and then you say, and that 20 bucks was mine, and they give you the money.
00:44:59.000You'll get, I saw a video of domestic violence, a woman called the cops, the cops came and they're like, they didn't know, and the kid, there was a third party, so the cops were able to discern that actually the woman was the guy beating the dude, so they arrested her, the woman that called the cops.
00:45:13.000But probably, like you're saying, bias.
00:45:16.000It has to do psychologically with what comes down to who do you give presumption to.
00:45:20.000In any situation, when there's two competing clauses, you have to give presumption to someone.
00:45:26.000So psychologically, whoever makes their claims first is assumed presumption.
00:45:30.000And when the cops are like, well they called for our help, they must be the good guy.
00:45:34.000So I love in Airplane GTA, what you do is, if the character, if you push somebody, you know what you can do in GTA is if you keep bumping into someone, they'll eventually fall over and try and fight you.
00:45:46.000So you instigate the fight, then run away from them, they follow you, and then find a cop car, and then once they hit you, the cops come out and arrest the other person.
00:46:01.000I think that, I mean, it's like accusing the Russians of trying to conquer Europe when it's the liberal economic order that put military bases in Germany and has basically created NATO.
00:46:27.000I know it's a fun song, but I'm just thinking about it and they're playing it with the movie Reagan, making a point about presidential power and the conflict and all that stuff.
00:46:35.000But it's just like the reality is most people just want to be left alone and they want to Watch the game and have a pizza with their kids, and they want to make sure their kids are getting a good education, and then they're doing the right by their family.
00:46:47.000Very few people actually want to rule the world.
00:46:49.000Vladimir Putin, I do not believe, is one of them.
00:46:58.000I think he's a power-hungry, you know, maniac who's maintained power in Russia for decades by manipulating the political system.
00:47:05.000But he is not someone that I view as a Prominent threat?
00:47:09.000China's a bunch bigger threat to the United States in terms of economic expansion and the exploration and colonization they're doing.
00:47:15.000But NATO has taken over and colonized Europe, and is trying to take Ukraine.
00:47:22.000NATO's got Latvia, Estonia, they're bordering Russia already.
00:47:25.000Russia's got Belarus, and then NATO's trying to take Ukraine.
00:47:28.000And Ukraine's got a Russian base in Sevastopol, and that's their access to the Black Sea and the Mediterranean, and NATO tried to take it away from them.
00:47:37.000And so, yeah, sorry, like, Russia was there and the U.S.
00:47:43.000And when the pro-Russian regents of Ukraine said, yeah, we're going to declare this little decree and we're going to say we're pro-Russia, Ukraine was quite literally about to go F their shh up.
00:47:53.000I don't know if you're aware of what happened.
00:48:00.000Well, Russia maintains that their whole operation was to protect the individuals of the pro-Russian separatist regents from the Ukraine government.
00:48:11.000There's been, and there were lots of skirmishes between the Ukrainian government and the pro-Russians.
00:48:15.000Look, lots of pro-Russian Ukrainians have gotten quite literally taken out of their house and tied to trees.
00:48:20.000We've seen many of those viral videos.
00:48:23.000So yeah, the Russian, the Ukrainian government is not very kind to the pro-Russian regions of Ukraine.
00:48:29.000Well, and so he's saying right now there's no reason to even talk about a ceasefire.
00:48:33.000He's going to talk to Biden next month and we'll just press forward.
00:48:36.000I thought they were this oppressed underdog that we had to spend millions and millions and millions of dollars on.
00:48:41.000I don't think people have an accurate picture of the dynamic between.
00:48:45.000There's a very interesting through line between what happened to Germany after World War I and what happened to the Soviet Union after the breakup of the Soviet Union.
00:48:53.000In World War I, Eastern Germany was split off and given to Poland.
00:48:58.000And then the Polish government started excising the Germans, the actual Germans that lived there.
00:49:03.000And Hitler, that was one of his complaints.
00:49:05.000You can't just genocide Germans just because you control the land.
00:49:09.000So when the Ukraine was split off from the Soviet Union, and then there's Russians living in eastern Ukraine, they start abusing those people because they're ethnically not, whatever, borderland Ukrainian.
00:49:20.000And then the Russians are like, you can't just slaughter native Russians.
00:49:23.000Like, that's a very similar danger that can lead to like, we're going to take our land back so that you can't oppress the people or slaughter the people.
00:49:30.000I wish I had more information about what they did to the Germans in Poland.
00:50:06.000So again, this is coming from... This is really interesting.
00:50:11.000Global Government Affairs on Ax, verified, says last night Alexandre de Moraes threatened our legal representative in Brazil with arrest if we do not comply with his censorship orders.
00:50:21.000He did so in a secret order, this is from the 17th by the way, which we share here to expose his actions.
00:50:27.000Despite our numerous appeals to the Supreme Court not being heard, the Brazilian public not being informed about these orders, and our Brazilian staff having no responsibility or control over whether content is blocked on our platform, Moraes has chosen to threaten our staff in Brazil Rather than respect the law or due process, we then have this post from STF, which has got the government seal on it, Brazil, and will translate it by Supreme Court Federal, the highest instance in the judiciary works to guarantee your rights.
00:51:02.000I don't speak Portuguese, so give me a second to translate this, but, well, following the Pavel Durov story.
00:51:09.000Didn't we just learn from Francis this is a bad time for tech billionaires who have controversial social media platforms to be traveling internationally?
00:51:16.000I mean, it is wild to me that this would come the day that Pavlodourov is indicted in France and told he can't leave the country, has to check in at a police station every couple days, or I think it's like twice a week.
00:51:28.000You know, Elon Musk is in a different position because he's, I would argue, even more high profile than Pavlodourov, but you know, Keep in mind, they're threatening his legal representative with jail.
00:51:38.000They're threatening a lawyer with jail time.
00:51:39.000So if you've been following the Brazilian Supreme Court, they've been overrun by radical leftists.
00:51:45.000By the way, this is what they want to do in America.
00:51:47.000They want to have judicial activists on the court, people who will interpret the law and do a bunch of things.
00:51:51.000So this has been coming down the pipe for a while.
00:51:54.000By the way, this is the same Supreme Court that indicted Bolsonaro for not doing enough during COVID.
00:52:01.000So the Supreme Court in Brazil has become very politicized.
00:52:06.000citizens, some people who are some pro-Trump folks in Brazil before, so it's a scary time for Brazilian nationalists in that area, and certainly it's a scary time for anyone associated with X in Brazil, because I would not be surprised if Brazil actually throws someone in jail.
00:52:22.000Again, their Supreme Court has a bunch of power, and their Supreme Court is acting as activists, so this is certainly concerning for X, but Do you think Elon Musk will go, though?
00:52:34.000Elon will never set foot in Brazil if he has any brains, no.
00:52:37.000So I took the image and I put it in Google Translate, and this is what came out.
00:52:41.000It says, Reporter, Minister Alexandre de Moraes, Petition Federal District, Brazil, August 20th, 2024.
00:52:47.000Minister Alexandre de Moraes, reporter, I like how they spelled it, in accordance with the decision handed down in the aforementioned proceedings.
00:52:54.000The Judicial Secretariat of the Federal Supreme Court proceeded with the intimacy, by electronic means, of Elon Musk, of the decision handed down in the aforementioned proceedings, which determined the indication within 24 hours of the name and qualifications of the newly-representative ex-Brazil in the national territory.
00:53:08.000So, it's gonna be all garbled, because it's translated, of course.
00:53:51.000of Telegram in France, which is, we should talk about that for a while.
00:53:54.000I think the solution is you decentralize a platform so that you, as an owner of the system, have no control over it, that it's meshed device to device, so there are no central servers to shut down, and then let the protocol function.
00:54:08.000Because really, it's the function of X that's valuable, not the ownership, not the money.
00:54:14.000Elon can make his money off SpaceX and just oversee the protocol translation.
00:54:19.000That would be really great for humanity, because I'd love to see X proliferate.
00:54:23.000They're going to, obviously, in Brazil, try and stop it from being on the Play Store.
00:54:27.000That doesn't mean people can't find it on, like, Pirate Bay or, you know, dark web stuff in Brazil and find it against the law down there and use it anyway, which sometimes if governments go totalitarian, they'll lock you up.
00:54:45.000Look, there's been a lot of discourse on X in Brazil.
00:54:47.000Like there's lots of, if you're an American, if you're talking about Catalonian issues, you're getting a bunch of follows from Brazilian accounts on X. The intention is to shut down all that discourse.
00:54:56.000So they're actually probably, I don't know if they'll arrest people for accessing X because that just makes them look like tyrannical a-holes.
00:55:03.000But I think it's just going to massively shut down the conversation to where Certain free-flowing of information isn't happening, things aren't getting organized, rallies, people aren't meeting for events.
00:55:13.000That is the intention, to shut down X as a discursive tool in Brazil.
00:55:18.000So if I could access X from another network, like I don't, I agree with you.
00:55:22.000Some people like you will, but it's going to be a smaller percentage of, you know, Like if it was interoperable with other networks like YouTube, Facebook, Mines, Rumble, if you could be on Mines and access your X account or access other people's X accounts, then no matter what they, you know, obviously not no matter what they try and censor on X, but you'll still have access to the platform without being on the platform.
00:55:44.000That could be kind of a way around it.
00:55:46.000You know, dictators always will always try and just shut it down with brute force.
00:55:51.000But, you know, metaphorically speaking, the chat will never get that big in Brazil, right?
00:55:56.000If you do all these underground ways of interacting on X, whether through proxies or whatever, it'll never be as many people as it is in the status quo.
00:56:04.000And that ultimately is the goal of the Brazilian government.
00:56:08.000And I think they're going to probably succeed because, again, they've been researching this ever since April.
00:56:14.000And what is their goal is just to either have them do specific censorships on the entire platform or just on the Brazilian part of the platform?
00:56:23.000They think that Elon Musk is fueling disinformation.
00:56:36.000Okay, and then with the Pavel Durov stuff, is it the same plan by the French government?
00:56:40.000They're claiming women, abuse of women.
00:56:41.000Yeah, they're saying that the platform allows child trafficking and drug trafficking and criminal activities that he's not appropriately moderating.
00:56:48.000And they say we moderate to the standards set by the EU, and you're going after us unfairly.
00:56:54.000That's like going after cops for the cops not finding the criminals.
00:56:59.000You're saying, you're at fault because crime is happening in society and you're not stopping it.
00:57:03.000They're like, dude, we can't stop all the crime in society.
00:57:05.000Well, it's actually much simpler than that.
00:57:06.000It's the lie they're telling stupid people who believe it, when what they're really doing is saying, this guy's Russian and French.
00:57:13.000If the FSB, if Russia gets a hold of him, then they're going to have him unlock Telegram and all of its users to Russia, take him in France, have him give access to Western forces instead, and then we'll use Telegram against the Russians.
00:57:29.000The rumor going around is that Macron invited Durov to dinner.
00:57:34.000And so he flew to France to meet with Macron and was greeted instead by a bunch of police officers who arrested him.
00:57:41.000Now he's not allowed to leave the country.
00:57:43.000Keep in mind, this guy is very anti-Putin.
00:57:49.000And the UAE, where he's also a citizen, has started saying they're asking for the ability to meet with him in a consular capacity.
00:57:55.000So it's interesting because it's really opening kind of an international skirmish over him because, again, Telegram's headquartered in Dubai.
00:58:03.000So France is now going up against a company that's not even based there and saying, you guys are doing something that we don't like.
00:58:14.000The UAE just said they're not going to do something with the French, that they're going to violate some contract they have with the French.
00:59:29.000And it's not just him it's also his brother, I think his name is Nikolai,
00:59:34.000who France has also issued an arrest warrant for.
00:59:37.000So it's just clearly targeted at these two guys who are in charge of an app that they would like more access to, but he has different countries vying for, you know, willing to step in to protect him.
00:59:49.000There were similar conversations coming out of Russia being like, the circumstances are very unclear to us and we want more information from France.
00:59:55.000I'm thinking about World War II and how Einstein fled to the United States.
00:59:58.000It was like they wanted some scientists to work on the Manhattan Project.
01:00:01.000They didn't have to arrest them and force them to do it.
01:00:03.000Like, if they arrested Pavel because they want to force him to use Tik—not TikTok, but Telegram—as part of the war effort, well, you shouldn't have to arrest the guy.
01:00:47.000government previously requested a backdoor over child sex crimes or something.
01:00:53.000That was the reason why they wanted it.
01:00:55.000Now, this is typically what the government will say every time it's a sexual investigation, obviously to gain sympathy, but I think it's a principle issue for this guy.
01:01:44.000But if their problem is, you know, the exploitation of cyber channels for all kinds of malicious things, whether it's, you know, sexual exploitation of children or money laundering or whatever it is, like, shouldn't you just be doing this to all apps?
01:03:13.000And also, you know, if he flies, except for maybe the UAE, you know, I think any other European country would be like, we're gonna send you back to France.
01:03:21.000And if he goes to Russia, he's basically becomes the enemy of the I also think the look would be bad, right?
01:03:27.000It would be marketed as him fleeing from the consequences of his terrible actions.
01:03:33.000If he really has nothing to hide, if Telegram is acting in good faith and they have the right to behave the way they are, which I actually assume they do, then him fleeing makes him look more guilty than he is.
01:04:09.000So even in a system where you think we're all going to be unencrypted and know each other's thoughts, there's going to be people that are watching and you don't see, unfortunately.
01:04:17.000But then there's the other system where there's all this encrypted secrecy going on, and then you have room for error, room for crime, room for horror, and the destruction of individuals and societies in secret.
01:04:27.000And that's like, that's what it's always been up to this point, is you could have a secret conversation in your home with somebody, and then they built spy satellites and they could tap your phone and stuff, and we're like moving towards the Borg.
01:05:25.000I'm sorry, these videos are so annoying.
01:05:27.000Well, they put music, so it makes it impossible to hear what the police are saying, but they're saying you're in violations of the Communications Act for posting something grossly offensive.
01:05:35.000The guy says what I posted, the flag, to 30,000 followers, and then they move to arrest him, and then these other guys basically pull out, I am Spartacus, and then they back off.
01:05:47.000This is social media in the UK, and you can Google all of the stories of people who have been arrested in the UK.
01:05:52.000Take a look at going back to Count Dankula in Scotland.
01:05:55.000He made a video of his dog raising its paw, and then he was basically having the dog do a Nazi salute as a joke.
01:06:01.000His joke was to have the cutest thing do the most disgusting thing imaginable.
01:06:06.000And he actually had to go to court over this.
01:06:31.000Yeah, a lot of these arrests, you'll hear these reports, it'll be like 70 year old man sentenced to five years behind bars for something he posted wherever.
01:06:39.000The UK is such a bizarre place because they view people who say like, hey, I like being British and I like my country as some sort of threat now.
01:06:48.000That's how you lose your country, right?
01:06:51.000It's one thing to be actually threatening, but these kinds of, you know, and I feel this way about hate speech in America, these kinds of vague claims of like, like this co-op is saying, well, you post something that could give someone anxiety.
01:07:04.000If you look at what Tim Wall said the other day on the news, a right to free speech isn't guaranteed.
01:07:11.000The left in the United States are already talking about some things being beyond the pale of being protected under free speech.
01:07:17.000So, I mean, this is just an omen to just cherish what we have in America even further.
01:07:21.000You can't rely on other people to give you free speech.
01:07:25.000We need to build systems that are free.
01:07:27.000The freedom is integral in the system.
01:07:29.000It used to be Where you just had gun rights, property rights, get off my lawn, I can say what I want, we're all armed, we're not gonna mess with each other, we agree.
01:07:37.000But when you have central overlords trying to mute this and that, you need systems that can't be censored if you want free speech, literal free speech.
01:07:46.000Of course, that doesn't mean there's no consequence for certain types of speech.
01:07:52.000Where are any of these CEOs to actually do this?
01:07:54.000Jack Dorsey was talking about, well, you've got to make a system where you can have encryption and then people can't be censored, and then he did nothing.
01:08:04.000I think because the video is so slow on decentralized systems, on mesh networks, it takes so long for BitTorrent to load a video or something.
01:08:15.000And so people just go to what's convenient.
01:08:17.000And I mean, God, the technology is amazing.
01:08:19.000Without YouTube and Google Central Systems, this TV show, the ability to produce at this level is phenomenal for our consciousness as a species.
01:08:28.000But the danger of centralized systems getting hijacked is paramount.
01:08:32.000Free speech allowed us to get to the point where we could build this stuff.
01:08:35.000We needed to argue and make better stuff.
01:09:32.000Information's currently at your fingertips.
01:09:34.000So this is why what Elon's doing is such a big problem.
01:09:37.000This is why I support the mission however I can, pay for Twitter blue, encourage others to get on, because what Elon is doing is contrary to what the World Economic Forum is pushing, right?
01:09:52.000The censorship is certainly out of control, and the United States, we just need to cherish what we have access to.
01:09:57.000There are these technologies called the PermaWeb, where it's like Arweave is a company that works on the PermaWeb, where it can't be censored.
01:10:20.000There's a value to being able to kind of like, walk away from your past and become a new better person without it following you everywhere.
01:10:28.000You used to be able to just move to a new city and kind of start a new life.
01:10:31.000And if there's a permanent database of everything you've ever said and done, then that's also kind of dangerous.
01:10:40.000But for some authority to be able to change and twist your life from a distance digitally, that's super dangerous and crazy.
01:10:49.000I think the problem is the authority, especially right now in America, has one bent, right?
01:10:55.000They don't treat people who espouse extremist ideology on either end of the political spectrum the same way.
01:11:02.000There's one side that is bad, and there's one side that we just don't really talk about.
01:11:07.000You know, I could understand the idea like, oh, you know, people post things online they don't really mean or it's a bad joke or whatever else and you want them prosecuted for that.
01:11:15.000But also maybe we should become a culture that doesn't post all these things online.
01:11:19.000And obviously, a little bit intense for me to be here on an internet-based podcast to say that.
01:11:24.000On the other hand, you know, I think that people Do make their bones right now on the internet saying shocking things to get attention and to build a base and sometimes they use that platform for good and sometimes they don't.
01:11:38.000But you know, we should all realize that our words have consequences and the reality is You don't want to live in a world where, because you hold some views, you are treated worse than others.
01:11:52.000I mean, that's why I think hate speech laws are kind of, you know, one of the clear signals of the end of free speech in America.
01:11:59.000Because who is anyone to say, well, you can't say that thing?
01:12:02.000Because ultimately, that means that there is a higher power discerning and policing your speech.
01:12:06.000Yeah, context of what you're saying, like the emotion behind what you're saying.
01:12:10.000There are things that I won't type on Twitter, that I won't post in text, that I will say live with my voice, because you can hear my intention.
01:12:18.000You can sense what I mean when I'm saying these.
01:12:21.000What might even be considered cruel in text, they're not.
01:12:24.000It's just they have to be communicated properly.
01:12:27.000properly. Imagine tweeting at Ian, you smell bad, right?
01:12:31.000Yeah. The interpretation of that tweet would be insulting, derogatory. But imagine Ian was hanging
01:12:36.000out with a good friend and they went, you smell bad. Yeah, I'd be like, thank you. Yeah, it's
01:12:40.000like they're not trying to insult you, they're trying to give you a heads up like, hey man, you
01:12:43.000stink. Whereas online it's like, you smell bad. Right.
01:13:35.000And that's why we protect free speech for arts in the creative space.
01:13:39.000That's another beautiful Outcome of free speech is these wild, crazy songs about beating women like guns and roses.
01:13:47.000Their Appetite for Destruction album wouldn't have gotten made in a totalitarian society.
01:13:51.000And just for clarification for everyone in the chat, whenever Ian walks into the room there's an immediate aroma of bakery fresh cinnamon buns.
01:14:03.000You did make me laugh when I first started working here because you said you would go out and you would buy like goat soap or like just cool fancy things.
01:16:39.000Yeah, I think two points, or no, no, no, I'm sorry, I'm sorry, I'm wrong.
01:16:43.000If she's ahead by one to two points, Trump has a six, it's 66 to like 33.
01:16:46.000If Kamala is three to four points ahead, then she has an 88% chance to win.
01:16:53.000He is forecasting her as being ahead over three points, which would give her this massive bump.
01:16:59.000However, now I suppose he's saying, considering that they're adjusting for the convention, it's looking like it's actually close to 50-50.
01:17:05.000I don't know how correct he is, but when you go to the RCP battleground average, the place that actually matters, Trump's actually doing really well.
01:17:17.000So in the battleground states, I think... Oh, did they get rid of the actual average?
01:17:21.000It looks like Harris has taken the... It's tied.
01:17:26.000This would imply Donald Trump is expected to win the battleground states.
01:17:30.000Unless there's some weird dramatic thing where, like, Texas flips, it's looking good for Donald Trump right now, but nowhere near guaranteed.
01:17:38.000Which is what we always thought since day one.
01:17:41.000We've not known this is going to be a close election.
01:17:43.000If you follow what, you know, the folks, you know, Tyler Boyer and Charlie Kirk, I mean, and they built the ballot chase program that I'm working on.
01:17:51.000We won Wisconsin by 23,000 votes in 2016.
01:17:53.000And then we lost it by 20, just over 20,000 votes in 2020.
01:17:55.000in 2016 and then we lost it by 20, just over 20,000 votes in 2020.
01:18:00.000So it's going to be just around that margin again.
01:19:26.000None of this data correlates with each other.
01:19:28.000So like, for example, Kamala can just do really well in California and she can win the national vote by a certain percentage and that necessarily wouldn't coordinate into how things will shake out in the Electoral College.
01:19:41.000I think what you're seeing from a lot of pollsters is they're trying to create the illusion of
01:19:45.000momentum for Harris, everyone within the Borg of pollsting.
01:19:49.000There was no reason to do that when Biden was running because he was a corpse and we all knew
01:19:53.000it. But I think they're really trying to put on the fact that Harris can win. And this obviously
01:19:57.000helps Democrat fundraisers. This helps them say, hey, look, we're just close on the margin. Your $2
01:20:02.000million is going to push us over the edge.
01:20:04.000I think that's the reason why you see this grift taking place the way you do, because there hasn't been a bump for Kamala in Georgia amongst suburban voters.
01:20:13.000And that's where she's headed right now.
01:20:14.000I mean, they're about to spend some time in Georgia.
01:20:16.000What swing states are you expecting Kamala to win versus Trump?
01:20:20.000But I do think Kamala is going to win.
01:20:23.000I think she's going to win Virginia, if we count Virginia as a swing state.
01:20:27.000I think she's going to win North Carolina, if we count that as a swing state.
01:20:30.000Arizona, I think Democrats are going to get trounced in, specifically because Turning Point is based there.
01:20:36.000And what we saw in the primary was increases in voter turnout in pretty much every precinct in Maricopa County because of the work Turning Point's doing there.
01:20:44.000I think that's going to translate to Georgia.
01:20:46.000I think that's going to translate into Wisconsin.
01:20:48.000And I don't think a lot of You know, your blue dog Dems aren't excited for Kamala.
01:21:22.000Everything I've heard indicates Junkin was a fluke.
01:21:25.000He had to run so moderate even to win, and a lot of those independents now don't like Junkin because he's been- But he just mandated paper ballots.
01:21:34.000We don't know what the effect of that is going to be on the state.
01:24:07.000Five circumstances in their prediction model that resulted in no winner.
01:24:12.000I think our country is so broken that that might be what helps pull us out of this.
01:24:19.000If Trump and Harris were having to govern together, we're in a place in politics where no one is willing to say, I could be wrong.
01:24:27.000No one in politics, Zuckerberg did, recently, which was pretty prolific.
01:24:31.000If Trump wins, there's no way Democrats have the Senate.
01:24:36.000I mean, let me pull up the- Well, they're saying, there's people who are saying, the police association just endorsed Trump and then they endorsed Kerry Lake's opponent.
01:24:45.000There's more than just that archetype in Arizona.
01:24:47.000I'm saying it's hypothetically possible Arizona goes for Trump and then they elect, they send a Democrat to the Senate.
01:25:10.000What this means is, if Kamala Harris is the VP in a contingent election, she does nothing as VP.
01:25:16.000There's no tie-breaking vote for her to cast.
01:25:18.000If the Senate's 50-50, and Kamala is VP through a contingent election, she can disrupt Trump's plans by blocking Republican policy by casting tie-breaking votes in favor of Democrats as VP in a Trump administration.
01:25:57.000But do we really think Montana's a toss-up?
01:26:00.000I think it really depends on how much people rally around the Republican there.
01:26:04.000But I think there are, like every major, or a lot of these rural states, like in Colorado it's largely red outside but Denver's really blue.
01:27:33.000It's not going to make a lot of sense that hyper-partisan voters are going to be like, oh, vote for Donald Trump, but the Democrat.
01:27:40.000Because people who hate Trump hate Trump.
01:27:41.000Democrats are not going to vote for Trump.
01:27:43.000I mean, I wonder if they're posturing the same way that Tester is, right?
01:27:47.000Like Tester's not endorsing Harris to try and seem more moderate.
01:27:51.000You know, the Democrats have this Unusual phenomenon where they have several independents who caucus with them, which makes me think that there is a wavelength of Democrat aligned voters who think, oh, but the party isn't all that it should be.
01:28:09.000Like you get lots of People who ultimately run as Republicans who, you know, identify with libertarian politics.
01:28:15.000But the fact that, like, the three independents I can think of that are in Congress right now all ultimately caucus with Democrats or, I mean, Joe Manchin's kind of not.
01:28:23.000He's done a lot of work with Republicans recently.
01:28:26.000It makes me think that this party isn't as unified on every level of government as they are necessarily on the federal level, or at least when it comes to presidential elections.
01:28:39.000That part that wants to secede into West Virginia?
01:28:42.000Yes, and right above it, dark red, dark red, dark red, dark red, all around it, yet for some reason, it's because of, I believe, Frederick, right?
01:29:17.000Yeah, it is interesting that that—I was deeply studying the C&O Canal going from the Chesapeake Bay up the river, and they wanted to connect the Ohio River to the Chesapeake Bay, the Potomac.
01:29:29.000That area is like mountainous and not the same at all anymore.
01:29:37.000They only carved it that way because it made sense probably to control the riverways and the canals back in the day, but the canal's gone now.
01:30:08.000We're a nation built upon a Declaration of Independence.
01:30:13.000Any county should be able to declare in their state, like, we held an election in this county.
01:30:20.000We have hereby democratically chosen to join another state.
01:30:23.000They're not changing the amount of representatives.
01:30:26.000They're not changing the structure of the federal government.
01:30:30.000And they should be allowed to do it, so long as the state agrees to accept them.
01:30:34.000The other state... If we had that function, imagine what would happen.
01:30:38.000The people who lived in these counties in Maryland would say, we have hereby voted to secede.
01:30:43.000The state would then say, wait, wait, wait, wait, what do you want to not do that?
01:30:47.000And they would actually have to offer up something to the people who lived there.
01:30:50.000Instead of saying, shut up, you can't do anything about it, or you'll go to, you know, do we tell you or else?
01:30:56.000Imagine you actually could just say, no, no, we're going to secede and go join Idaho or something.
01:31:00.000It would give them a bargaining power that I think, especially more of rural areas in states like Maryland, where there are two more dominant cities, they just don't have right now.
01:31:09.000They really are held captive by people who don't have their interests in heart and don't care about the way they live.
01:31:32.000George Washington was obsessed with building canals and connecting.
01:31:35.000Anyway, I don't want to—this is what I've been studying over the weekend intensely, because I walk by the canal, the remnants of the canal, the C&O Canal every day.
01:31:44.000Do you do a lot of on-the-ground work with the stuff you're doing right now?
01:31:47.000Yes, most of my work is on the ground in both Pennsylvania and Arizona.
01:31:51.000So I'm not usually that type of person, but this election, this has just been my calling to just really dig in here and just try to, you got to keep in mind, Republicans have never had a traditional get out the vote effort that has nudged people in this kind of way ever, which is kind of disappointing, but you know, there's, I think there were 141,000 people in Pennsylvania who were Republicans who requested a mail-in ballot who never turned it in.
01:32:17.000Um, so when you look at the people, the amount that should have requested a mail-in ballot, that number doubles.
01:32:22.000So you're talking about right there 300,000 Republicans who were just left just by the wayside because we don't put the money into staff to knock on folks' doors.
01:32:33.000I feel very good about our chances in these states that I'm seeing the groundwork.
01:32:37.000That's why I don't feel great about New Mexico, because I haven't seen the work there.
01:32:40.000And I feel less positive about Michigan, because I'm just not quite so sure how that's going to shake out.
01:32:48.000But we'll find out more toward the end of September.
01:32:50.000Toward the beginning of September and the end of September, that's when all these ballot chase operations are going to have door knockers on the ground, and then usually there's a 30-day period open for mail-in voting, for early voting.
01:33:00.000And now for the first time, you have Republicans saying, hey guys, election day is actually the last day to vote.
01:33:07.000Election day is your last day to vote, so please vote beforehand.
01:33:10.000So I think that's going to be significant, and we're going to see significant gains in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Arizona.
01:33:16.000What about, like, online voting, you know, incisions, like, getting people to vote through, like, online campaigns?
01:33:24.000Is it just that the people online are already activated and are going to, and it's more about the people that aren't online that you've got to go to their house and be like, hey, vote?
01:34:03.000It's like a neighborly approach as opposed to last second shotgun.
01:34:08.000This is what like, you know, um, young Americans for Liberty last second, you know, they usually send out a bunch of kids at the last second to just like drop little leaflets.
01:35:00.000I was gonna ask how you got involved with what you're doing now.
01:35:02.000I was working for James O'Keefe in 2020 trying to confirm that voter fraud was happening in our country and I felt like we proved voter fraud happened at a massive scale throughout to the country in Georgia.
01:35:16.000However, we still lost and I felt like my work was meaningless.
01:35:19.000So I kind of decided that, you know, in 2024, I'm not going to just, you know, indirectly do something for the election.
01:35:27.000I'm going to go old school like I did in 2016 and really get involved.
01:35:31.000So like I said, I have three jobs currently and I'm doing a lot and I just I just feel this is the key.
01:35:37.000I know we always say it's the most important election of our time, but quite literally, You know, this is life or death.
01:35:44.000You know, I don't want to reveal people's personal information, but I can reveal tonight that one of the persons who was indicted over the fake elector situation, you know, one of their spouses just passed literally today.
01:35:56.000So this woman had to literally split time between these trials and her dying husband.
01:36:04.000So yeah, I'm all in invested in this election because they are quite literally trying to imprison my friends.
01:36:11.000Alright, we're gonna go to Super Chats, so if you haven't already, smash the like button, subscribe to this channel, and share the show if you like it.
01:36:17.000Head over to TimCast.com, click join us, become a member, because without your memberships, the show doesn't exist.
01:36:23.000And if you like the work that we do, we rely on you guys as members.
01:36:27.000So, instead of doing sponsor spots, the decision ultimately was, let's promote memberships instead, and it's just, it's a healthier show, you're not gonna do ad reads mid-show, and if we're gonna shout anything out, we'll shout ourselves out.
01:36:40.000Gives us more control, and hopefully that spiel convinces you guys to go to TimCast.com and become members, and help sustain what we do.
01:36:49.000Alright, Polly Puree says, am I first?
01:40:13.000I see you killing it with like 25,000 people and stuff.
01:40:17.000Because I record a morning segment at 9 a.m.
01:40:20.000I would record at 9 and publish at 10 and then instead of, there's a difference in the show, it used to be that I record four segments from between 9 a.m.
01:40:28.000Well I'd start doing research and everything at 8 and then record at 9 and then after that 22 to 30 minute segment start doing more work and research and then throughout the day I've got between 10 a.m.
01:40:43.000And then the week we went to the convention, it was just a lot easier to go live with the breaking news, the assassination attempt.
01:40:51.000And so I was like, this news is too big to not be a live show.
01:40:53.000And then I figured, I don't know, it's just easier to go live for two hours.
01:40:57.000And so now I come in at like 8, start pulling up stories, plus I already know a ton of stories, I've already retweeted and shared things, line up, and then during the livestream people might submit stories, but then by noon I'm basically wrapped.
01:41:10.000That's cool, so they bring the news, some breaking news and stuff.
01:41:12.000Yeah, a couple times we've had people... You clip it, and then do clips throughout the day?
01:41:16.000Yep, I press record during the livestream for the segments, and then upload them.
01:41:21.000So there's a morning... So, everyone listening, subscribe at youtube.com slash timcastnews.
01:41:28.000Monday through Thursday, 10am, I'm live for two hours and it's just me talking.
01:41:31.000And then I do like 30 minutes super chats, 30 minutes super chats, then like 10 minutes, 10 minutes.
01:41:38.000And, you know, people will like send in stories and be like, yo, the story just broke and then I'll pull it up and then we'll do we'll do a segment on it.
01:41:45.000But then I get wrapped around noon, and then I finish doing all of the logistical work for it, like uploading the podcast version by like 12.30, and then probably have a snack, and then by 1, I'm exercising.
01:44:28.000And then I'm like, wow, that's, that's very painful.
01:44:31.000I, at a certain point in your life, maybe not everybody goes through this, but I don't know.
01:44:37.000At a certain point of falling and busting my shins and whacking myself in the legs and all of that, I'm just like, you're not- like, pain isn't doing anything for me.
01:44:45.000Thank you, body, for notifying me of the damage.
01:44:58.000When we're getting an AD, and the nurse says, you know, they're gonna find a vein, they're gonna give you an IV drip, I just sit there and I'm like, okay, like, here comes the IV and it hurts, but what am I supposed to do?
01:47:43.000I've done it a couple times and, you know, sometimes I do think there's, especially if you're training a lot, I feel like it is good for muscle recovery.
01:47:50.000What I remember doing more was when I was younger and ran track and all this stuff, if you get shin splints, like if you submerge your calves or whatever in ice for a long time, I really think that does help any kind of inflammation or injury.
01:48:01.000But it's not something I do regularly.
01:48:16.000And Beast gets hurt and then he says to himself, what is pain to overcome it?
01:48:22.000And as a little kid, that one stuck with me.
01:48:24.000And so, you know, whenever I'd get hurt, I would think about it and I would Analyze it, and it kind of neutralizes the reaction.
01:48:32.000Yeah, when I messed up my elbow, I had to, I rammed on the wall, I had to rip the skin, it was like hanging, so I pulled, ripped the skin off.
01:48:38.000I was like, well, that didn't, that didn't feel good.
01:48:40.000And then I took nail clippers and like clipped off the skin around the wound to make sure that it didn't get dirt underneath it.
01:48:46.000I was like, this hurts, but this is good pain.
01:48:48.000This pain indicates that I'm going to be healthy in the long-term.
01:49:16.000Ian says, dude, that's a normal AR-15.
01:49:18.000The bag is too short to hide the upper, though.
01:49:21.000Yeah, and someone else pointed out, wasn't his gun shot and damaged?
01:49:25.000No, well, that's what I've heard, but then today when they were doing this press conference, Rojak, the FBI agent, was saying, we've tested the gun and it's still intact, still works.
01:49:37.000The FBI is currently saying no, I had heard reports that it was, but you know, Crooks was killed with a singular shot to the head, so I don't know how much gunfire was actually directed at him.
01:49:48.000Alan Smithy says, it's not a collapsible stock, it's an adjustable stock.
01:50:26.000And then there is one... I don't think we got it, but it was really cool because...
01:50:32.000I think it's a Ruger 10-22, except you can snap, twist, and take off the upper, or whatever it's called, and then switch it for a different caliber or something.
01:51:36.000There was a, you know we talked about, there was a, in Wheaton, Illinois, and Glen Ellyn are on this area, the West Suburbs, there was a bank robber who operated for a couple decades.
01:52:24.000People think, you know, crime is like CSI, like, they find a dead body, then the cops come in and they're like, tape it all off and we're gonna do all these crazy things.
01:52:55.000I did find this New York Times article that I mentioned in, and they do make the claim that Trump's surrogates are claiming that illegal immigrants are committing crimes without evidence.
01:53:05.000Illegal immigrants literally committed a crime to enter the country.
01:53:31.000Dim Sum Nim Sum says, wasn't, wasn't there a Democrat commercial to stop a bill for mechanics having codes for cars because they said mechanics will do naughty in parking garages?
01:54:14.000The problem here is we're talking about a naval base that was Soviet.
01:54:21.000After the Soviet Union broke up, Russia retained control of and paid Ukraine in a lease and is a massive naval base, an industrial center for bringing in goods.
01:54:30.000They're not just going to build one of those overnight or establish trade routes overnight.
01:54:35.000They want to maintain control of one of, if not their only warm water sea port.
01:54:40.000Where they get access to the Black Sea, move through the Bosphorus, into the Mediterranean, and sell their energy.
01:54:46.000So, to imply that, well, of course Russia has some coastline along the area.
01:54:52.000So they're not going to give up a multi-billion dollar naval port, as well as, I believe it's the home of their Black Sea fleet, naval forces.
01:55:12.000Let NATO take control of our naval base and seize all of our infrastructure, and then we'll go build somewhere else, and maybe in 20 years we'll have something comparable.
01:55:20.000So, when I'm talking about their only access to the Black Sea, it's in reference to their shipping lane, trade routes, and massive industrial port, as Ian mentioned, and naval base.
01:55:30.000They also have ships in Tartus, so they do have other—in Syria, but it's—they're different things.
01:57:15.000Or you'd see like Barack Obama, you know, like something related, like political cartoon related to him bombing some country and George W. Bush lying.
01:57:23.000The memes that we were getting were jokes mocking everything.
01:57:26.000Pepe the Frog would be like a little guy pulling a lever and a wall dropping down on the border.
01:57:32.000Now the memes are like Donald Trump dancing.
01:57:35.000You know, and they made a whole bunch of them and they're like, this is cool.
01:57:37.000And I'm like, that's what Hillary did.
01:57:41.000And that's why Harris can run a campaign where she still has not given us a platform, but instead she's running on the let's talk about Trump all the time campaign, right?
01:57:49.000Like the vibes campaign is actually completely Trump focused, but not in a way that benefits Americans.
01:57:55.000When it was Trump focused and they were saying, well, he's talking about the border while it's 2016 and people hadn't really embraced the issue the way they have now, it was different.
01:58:03.000But now it's really just about Trump as this larger-than-life supervillain that the Democrats think that he is.
01:58:09.000And, you know, I think that's to the detriment of everybody.
01:58:12.000I'd love to see a bit technical, his campaign, because I don't like emotionally when he's like, there are really bad people.
01:58:47.000That actually is the best answer I think we could hope for.
01:58:50.000We don't want mass military mobilization for deportations.
01:58:53.000We don't want this extreme people being loaded in buses, local police receiving warrants and then going methodically and slowly to deport, starting with criminals, as J.D.
01:59:40.000So Kamala, even when she tries to steal Trump's thunder and mention a policy idea that she knows she can't get passed, she's getting beat back by Democrats who are like, hold on, that's not progressive.
01:59:54.000We're going to go to the members' call-in show now, and if you'd like to hang out, go to timcast.com, click join us, become a member, and we have this massive library of all of our call-in shows.
02:00:04.000You as members actually can submit questions, call into the show, join us and our guests, and ask anybody you want a question.
02:00:10.000And the way it works is, You propose your question, the community then decides which question they think is best to be on the show, and that elevates it.
02:00:18.000So we usually have some pretty great callers who bring up some really interesting points that often people have not considered.
02:00:24.000One, recently, was that the shadow campaign will be to fraudulently vote for Trump.
02:00:31.000If the Democrats think they're going to lose no matter what, then the shadow campaign would be make obvious fraudulent votes for Trump so when he wins, they can grab select ballots and say, aha, look, we found Trump was the one who committed fraud and throw the whole election into question.
02:01:44.000and shoot a movie next month, I think.
02:01:46.000Still, everything's in the works, so I haven't confirmed anything.
02:01:48.000I'll tell you more about it as it progresses.
02:01:51.000Also, I want to see us start taking Boyan Slat's ocean cleanup project, Plastic, Sending it down to Rice University and turning it into graphene, or sending it to wherever Universal Matter uses their flash jewel heating process to turn this plastic into graphene, proof of concept, and then we'll do like a global revolution of energy that way.
02:02:08.000And also, I've been crushing Diablo 4 lately with my Frost Sorcerer.
02:02:14.000Elon's got me inspired to start streaming on X.
02:02:17.000He's like, I think he's like tier 174 druid, and it's hilarious to watch him just blasting these end bosses and taking forever because he's a druid.
02:02:26.000So I've got a glass cannon, and maybe I'll go, maybe I'll play multiplayer with him if he's got eternal.
02:02:31.000But if he's seasonal, then I don't know if our characters are cross-compatible.