00:02:55.000Yo, the FBI has descended on Skid Row in California, going after homeless people, maybe not going after them, but investigating voter fraud following the California primary elections.
00:03:08.000Now, I know a lot of people are saying, I want results.
00:03:11.000I don't want to just see the FBI going to look at it now, but this is the best we can expect right now.
00:03:16.000I mean, how would you feel if they weren't doing anything?
00:05:00.000Minor League Baseball team in York, Pennsylvania refused to wear their Pride uniforms, so they forfeited the match.
00:05:06.000We are seeing across the board, ain't nobody putting up their weird Pride Month profile pics or anything like that.
00:05:12.000And we've got new polling from CNN showing the American people believe movements for cultural acceptance related to gender, identity, and various other nationalities has gone too far.
00:05:52.000Here's what most people don't realize a single pound of conventional grocery store ground beef can contain DNA from hundreds of different cattle.
00:06:03.000Basically, they just throw all these cows into a meat grinder, and that's what you get.
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00:06:40.000For up to 30% off, two free 10 ounce ribeyes plus free shipping.
00:06:46.000And this summer, Backyard Butchers is celebrating America's 250th anniversary with a free America 250 box.
00:06:53.000When you purchase a steakhouse box complete with burgers and hot dogs built for my favorite holiday, the 4th of July, which is in MAGA month, no less, go to backyardbutchers.com, use promo code TIM for up to 30% off, two free 10 ounce ribeyes plus free shipping.
00:07:07.000And I just want to give a shout out to Backyard Butchers and the 4th of July.
00:07:11.000Guys, it is my favorite time of the year when we're hanging out in summer.
00:07:15.000You're out in the park, you got the grill going, everybody's sitting in lawn chairs, explosions in the sky.
00:08:00.000Go to timcast.com, sign up, get in the Discord community because you get to call in to this show Monday through Thursday at 10 p.m. and you can yell at us, compliment us.
00:08:10.000You can tell Phil that his music is fantastic and he's very handsome.
00:08:39.000Normally doing PCC live Monday through Friday at 3 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, but we've got a bunch of stuff to get into, so let's get into it.
00:09:02.000Here's a story from the New York Post.
00:09:04.000FBI agents descend on Skid Row in massive voter fraud probe after stunning claims of election bribery.
00:09:12.000They say about 20 agents swooped in a notoriously blighted area after homeless people living there claimed they'd been paid cash to sign multiple registration forms, forge signatures, and fill out voter information ahead of the mayor's race and governor's primaries.
00:09:26.000The California Post witnessed three plainclothes agents fanning out across Skid Row's run down streets just before noon, interviewing dozens of people while taking notes.
00:09:35.000Federal Homeland Security investigations agents also participated in the probe.
00:09:39.000The officers, dressed in jeans, sweatshirts, and baseball caps, spoke to locals who appeared to point them in the direction of where to look.
00:09:47.000Agents conducted up to 50 interviews asking if individuals were paid to vote or were aware of anyone else being approached.
00:09:53.000The DOJ confirmed that federal agents were investigating a criminal matter but declined to comment further.
00:09:57.000The FBI said it does not comment on ongoing investigations, but the Post investigation determined it was linked to voter fraud allegations.
00:10:05.000And I just want to stress, ain't no allegations here.
00:10:37.000They will give an address to the homeless person of a homeless shelter.
00:10:41.000Then, about a month or so before the election, when universal mail in ballots are being sent out, a homeless shelter might receive 100, 200, 300 mail in ballots, one location with no one to accept them.
00:10:53.000The question then becomes for what purpose do they have all of these ballots sent to these homeless shelters?
00:10:59.000Well, now we're getting a bit speculative, but speculation is that activists who are paid to collect ballots, like $2 or $3 per ballot filled out, will go to a homeless shelter to collect these unfilled out ballots by homeless people that no one knows where they are.
00:11:14.000They will then have them signed out by homeless people.
00:11:45.000The Supreme Court to hand down a plethora of rulings.
00:11:49.000The nuke is about to drop, my friends.
00:11:52.000Just before the greatest of American holidays, if they rule in this mail in voting case, it could put an end to universal mail in voting, early voting, and otherwise.
00:12:05.000No more counting belts after election day.
00:12:07.000No more sending out early votes and mail in votes.
00:12:10.000Democrats will never win an election again.
00:12:14.000That, I mean, there's a couple that are coming down next week that are going to be consequential.
00:12:20.000The mail in voting stuff, I think, is one of them, but also the ruling on the 14th Amendment is supposed to come next week, too.
00:12:27.000Yeah, Birthright's Head doesn't change.
00:12:30.000Those two things alone could change the course of the country, right?
00:12:34.000If we get the kind of ruling that conservatives would be hoping for, that alone will change not only the midterms, but it'll change every subsequent election.
00:12:52.000With this polling that we're seeing about how Americans feel about wokeness and all that stuff, we can also see from it that woke still exists.
00:13:07.000But if we change these structures, if the Supreme Court says no birthright citizenship, which would be just amazing, and if they say you cannot send ballots before Election Day and you can't collect them after Election Day, which I think they're going to rule, It is the end for Democrats as we know it.
00:13:29.000The thing with this, too, I think a lot of people are missing this.
00:13:32.000We've theorized about a lot of these things and we have obviously data that this is going on, but it's not until we actually have these rulings come down and then see the elections to really understand how 2020 or even 2016 could have gone differently.
00:13:47.000I think some of us who are even fairly bullish on how this might change things are going to be surprised by just how bad it was in our elections before.
00:13:56.000And again, we just Don't truly know until those rulings come down.
00:14:00.000Yeah, I mean, I would like to see a real accounting of how the elections have panned out in the past, but that is, for me, that's a tertiary issue.
00:14:10.000It'll be interesting, but at the end of the day, people always love to say, oh, this is the most important election that's ever happened.
00:14:20.000Every election is the most important election.
00:14:56.000Right now, I will put it like this: when in 2024, when we were looking at Kamala as president or Trump as president, getting Trump in was the most important thing that we could do.
00:15:07.000And the Republicans taking the majority.
00:15:09.000But that wasn't about fundamentally altering how, like stopping corruption or cheating.
00:15:20.000The next thing we have to do is if we do not forward that line and we fall back, we are losing.
00:15:27.000So this election is actually more important because we're talking about fundamentally changing the understanding of our Constitution and how our elections are actually held.
00:15:35.000And how people view the Republican Party in a lot of ways, given the fact that it's always kind of seen as like a Republican is just.
00:15:41.000You know, a Democrat is just a Republican going to speed limit or whatever, the set it backwards, right?
00:15:45.000The idea is that the Republicans are always just there to kind of be a pressure release valve for Democrat policies.
00:15:51.000And you always kind of just end up never forwarding your agenda, but maybe hastening their agenda by a couple of years.
00:15:57.000But actually moving forward with your own policy ideas and making inroads helps people fundamentally see the Republican Party in a different way.
00:16:05.000I was just going to say this is a really important point and something that is frustrating me so much about some people on the right right now is they're acting like there's this, you know, obviously everyone talks about the Uniparty.
00:16:15.000You know, taking over, and there really is no change.
00:16:18.000This, what's going on with FBI agents right now in LA, in addition to the rulings that are going to come out from the Supreme Court, completely dispels that.
00:16:25.000It's totally fine to talk about how the Republican Party is more similar to the Democrat Party than it ever has been before.
00:16:30.000It's totally fine to say these certain people in power are looking at the same things and doing the same things.
00:16:50.000Donald Trump is, whether you like him or not, Donald Trump is arguably one of the most consequential presidents in the past 50 years, right?
00:16:58.000Like just the appointments to the Supreme Court alone, the changes to Roe versus Wade, that alone is a massive victory for the right that the right has been working diligently for, for what, 50 years, was it?
00:18:24.000But the way they were going about it, vastly different.
00:18:27.000So, if you want to say, yeah, the broad grand strategy of America is not changing that much, okay, maybe.1.00
00:18:33.000But to act like Kamala Harris in Iran is going to look the same as Donald Trump in Iran is so stupid.0.98
00:18:37.000Yeah, most of, to Brett's point, most of the time they're talking about foreign policy.0.99
00:18:41.000Most of the time it's people that have a libertarian streak in them or want to see the US no longer support Israel, right?
00:18:48.000And the libertarians and the far left, they kind of come together on that.
00:18:54.000But libertarians would be like, we don't need to have all these bases.
00:18:57.000We don't need to be the police of the world and stuff.
00:19:00.000And it's like, I used to be a subscriber to that idea.
00:19:03.000I've come to realize that without the United States kind of being the bulwark of basically global trade and stuff like that, you're going to end up with China or Russia in the spot.
00:19:17.000If there's going to be a most powerful country on the earth, and there will be, it should be the United States because we've been exceedingly responsible, regardless of what anyone else says.
00:19:28.000Exceedingly responsible with that.0.99
00:19:29.000The problem is if Democrats win, then basically, y'all, white people are screwed.0.99
00:20:11.000Well, my longstanding theory is that I believe that Republicans and Democrats of the past 30 years, not Trump, pre Trump, basically resigned themselves to China is going to take over.
00:21:00.000And they panicked and tried to put him in prison.
00:21:02.000That's how worried they were about their investments getting chopped up.
00:21:05.000So now, if you take a look at the Strait of Hormuz getting shut down, the only thing is funny because I'm just so tired of everything being fake, guys.
00:21:27.000They're not going to tell you that.0.99
00:21:29.000And the other side's too stupid to argue correctly that Trump was lying because he was going after China because they don't want to shift the focus to China.0.99
00:21:34.000So instead, what happens is they say Trump started a war and got nothing.1.00
00:21:47.00050 plus high profile individuals that were refusing to negotiate, people who are 80, 90 years old, who have been there for generations, who had not worked in the United States, they're all dead.
00:21:57.000Now they're talking about he's giving them $300 billion, which was always the International Monetary Fund play.
00:22:03.000Loans to countries to put them under your boot.
00:22:09.000Now, I'm not suggesting that's the principal goal that they engaged in, but it is just the most annoying thing in the world to see people who have not read a single instance of foreign policy in their entire lives.
00:22:20.000Watching MS Now and convincing themselves they know everything about global strategy.
00:22:25.000And I'm sitting here being like, the only thing that makes sense actually is with the seizure of Venezuela, the isolation of Cuba, the killing of the criminal narco boats, threats to Gulf trade, securing Panama, renaming the Gulf the Gulf of America.
00:22:38.000And literally now we are one of the largest oil exporters in the world, shutting down, like screwing over OPEC, shutting down the Gulf states, and screwing over China.
00:22:46.000It's pretty damn obvious what Trump was doing.
00:22:48.000But I'm going to say this again because I've just, I want to be very careful I describe this.
00:22:52.000I don't think I'm right about everything.
00:22:54.000I don't think this is 100% guaranteed.
00:22:58.000But after conferring with sources that I know, because I know people who, you know, we have friends of the administration, seems to be, they're giving me a nudge, nudge, wink, wink.
00:23:36.000So then, my question would be, like, what would far enough have looked like?
00:23:39.000I think far enough would have been absolutely obliterated.
00:23:41.000Like, the fact that we're making a deal with terrorists is what I don't like.
00:23:44.000Like, I don't think America should be making a deal with terrorists.0.98
00:23:47.000I think we should be obliterating them.0.91
00:23:48.000And by the way, I do understand to a point why the frustration is in Israel with us negotiating something where essentially proxies in Hezbollah, in Lebanon, are able to just continue to attack Israel and they can't do anything about it.0.95
00:24:02.000I don't understand how that has anything to do with our deal with Iran.
00:24:06.000Like, do you guys understand how that could be troublesome for you to be making a deal with another country where a third country is involved and now cannot defend themselves from an Iran proxy on their own border?
00:24:15.000Well, the deal, but the deal includes Iran ceasing, it includes a cessation of hostilities from Lebanon as well.0.54
00:24:22.000Yeah, I don't think it prevents Israel from actually.
00:25:35.000The Qatari natural gas fields are wiped out.
00:25:38.000The U.S. is positioned as the principal energy exporter in the world.0.56
00:25:43.000And Trump did everything in the Gulf to make sure it's possible from taking out narco boats, isolating Cuba, taking the oil from Venezuela, removing Maduro.
00:25:51.000It sounds to me like whatever this deal with Iran is, literally doesn't matter in any capacity.1.00
00:25:59.000My problem with all of it is, as you stated earlier, if that's all the point of all of this, it has not been communicated to the American people.
00:26:06.000I understand why it can't be communicated to the American people.
00:26:08.000But if they lose the midterms, And things don't pan out this way, it was all for naught.
00:26:12.000And that's my biggest concern right now.
00:26:53.000But the point is, You are never going to get from any president, here's the exact international plan where I declare that this is an assault on Eastern energy supply and China.0.68
00:27:07.000I guess, so here's my question because one of the stated goals from the Trump administration is to get rid of the nuclear weapons that are in Iran.0.68
00:27:14.000So, my question to you is if they continue to fight Israel and Lebanon, and if they continue to enrich uranium, in your mind, is it kind of just like, oh, I don't care, they're going to do that anyway?0.54
00:27:24.000This is all about the economics of oil?
00:27:26.000Well, I mean, my position on whether Trump did, my position on the war is the war was largely detrimental.
00:27:33.000We have to see the long term effects to see if it's beneficial, and they have to articulate those long term effects.
00:27:37.000But what Trump is doing and what I'm stating he's doing is not a question of support or opposition to what he is doing.
00:27:43.000Again, like, I think there's great risk in going to war with Iran because you better hope you're going to pull this off because it's a gambit.
00:27:49.000And for now, we can see the material effects.0.99
00:27:59.000Iran may or may not abide by this deal.
00:28:01.000Then the arguments afterward will be we're in the same boat we were before the war, except we hindered the economics of the East to the benefit of America and propped up our energy infrastructure.
00:28:12.000That's certainly what conservatives will say.
00:28:15.000Or maybe Trump just says, you broke the deal, war's back on, clogs the Strait of Hormuz again, cuts off China again, blows up more people.
00:28:56.000It's not Mexico doing it, it's the United States.
00:28:58.000I think we're doing a lot of exporting out of like the Port of Houston or something.0.95
00:29:01.000So why kill the narco terrorists in the Caribbean?0.93
00:29:06.000He needed to clear trade routes because you had criminal traffickers armed causing problems, and you cannot have it's called pacification.0.93
00:29:14.000You cannot have tankers moving through the region at high volume if you have criminal enterprise because they're going to counter you.0.99
00:29:22.000So Trump blows them all up, kills them.
00:29:28.000Because Venezuela in 2009 seized US oil assets to the tune of $10 billion, and Obama did nothing about it.
00:29:36.000And truth be told, Trump didn't in his first term either, but now he is.
00:29:39.000He seized back our oil assets and basically got the country to line up, and they're the largest oil producer in the world.
00:29:45.000So now, the Caribbean and the Gulf region is the largest producer of energy in the world, with the U.S. being the largest exporter in the world and the largest since World War II.
00:29:55.000He isolated Cuba, which is adversarial, then sent an armada to the Strait of Hormuz.
00:30:01.000So if we're talking about what Trump has been doing for the year and a half and what the Iran war was materially, It is completely in line with shifting global energy to the Gulf, and he did that.
00:30:12.000Now, as to the question of Iran as a nation, I honestly believe that the war, and actually, you know what?0.54
00:30:20.000I'm going to say this it is a fact statement.
00:30:22.000The Iran war is a subset of the greater military operations of the United States over the past year and a half.
00:30:29.000That is, everything I just laid out with the Gulf, oil, all the trade, that is a massive, it's a litany of military operations for which the Iran war is large, but does not overtake all of the money spent in the other direction.
00:30:44.000To which I can say, when you look at the big picture and the shifting of energy and the cutting off of China, and it's damaging to some of our allies as well, but I think Trump was like, we're going to hurt them more than we get hurt.
00:30:56.000Whether or not Iran has nuclear weapons, I don't actually think is the front burner.
00:31:02.000I think it's maybe like three or four on the list.1.00
00:31:04.000And I will stress, I honestly think they're full of it.
00:31:07.000It's a casus belli because the 12 day war, they claimed to have blown up all the fissile material in the first place, then came back and said no.0.87
00:31:13.000So I would argue this is further evidence to what I've been saying that the plan here was to cut China off.
00:31:20.000I will also stress that upon communications with sources I know, you know, in and around the administration, that no one, I want to be very clear on how they say this because no one's leaking anything to me, but the general.
00:31:31.000Thing that I hear is, yeah, Tim, your assessment's actually pretty spot on.
00:31:35.000And I'm like, okay, that's all I need to hear.
00:32:05.000If Donald Trump came out and said to the American people, I want your support for a war in Iran that will shut down the Strait of Hormuz, drive gas prices up to $4.50 a gallon, because I want to cause economic damage to China, do you think his approval rate would go up or down?
00:32:24.000I'm just saying this is the argument they're using against them is that he's hanging people out to dry when we understand we have to put our needs as a nation first.0.81
00:32:32.000I understand the idea of needing to cut off China's access to oil, all this stuff makes perfect sense.
00:32:38.000That's where the detriment comes from a lot of people who probably aren't reading that heavily into the politics.
00:32:44.000They're only looking based off his initial statements.
00:32:47.000But obviously, espionage and whatever happens with global politics being what it is, who you are on the front also is going to matter going into the midterms.
00:32:55.000I mean, I imagine that the administration had hoped that if they initiated strikes, that there would be an uprising and that they would be successful.
00:33:03.000I guess that was why I asked if we were to go based off what they initially said, if all of this economically related to oil and gas prices wasn't the point.
00:33:13.000And he talks about an uprising from the citizens, right?
00:33:32.000So they're like, Trump surrendered and gave him billions of dollars.
00:33:35.000Yeah, guys, you know, I know it's really difficult for people who've never read Tales from Economic Hitman to understand how the liberal economic order works.
00:33:42.000But for those of us that have been tracking foreign policy most of our lives, and I got to bow down to those that are older than me.
00:33:47.000Who have been involved in this much longer?
00:35:08.000So, when Iran gets bombed and their leadership is all dead, and then they come in and they say, If you abide by the rules, you get $300 billion, that was the play.0.87
00:35:16.000That is how you subjugate a nation.0.87
00:35:19.000So, from the looks of things, I would say this.
00:35:23.000If you go to one of these, you guys know what Bilderberg is?
00:35:30.000I bet if you go to Davos, all of the guys there are saying basically what I'm saying.
00:35:35.000And outside, and I'll tell you this too, they're going to be journalists who appear on these big cable network TV shows who are going to be at these meetings.
00:35:43.000Behind the scenes, they're going to be like everything's off the record.
00:35:46.000Yes, this is exactly what Trump is doing and why.
00:35:48.000Now, excuse me, I've got to go on a late night cable television show and tell everyone that Trump's evil and he flubbed this and it's about gas prices.
00:35:56.000Now, you turn on MS Now, and I'm pretty sure all of these people, when they get to work, they're like, Do we have our lies written down yet?
00:36:03.000Because there's no way a sane, normal person can believe the things that MS Now hosts are actually saying.
00:36:09.000And I want to give a shout out to our friend Alicia Menendez, whose dad is Bob Menendez, who is corrupt as they come and is going to jail.0.99
00:36:27.000FBI raids Soros backed voter group headquarters in reported fraud probe.
00:36:32.000The Ohio Organizing Collaborative received over $10 million in revenue in 24 from top Democratic aligned donors.
00:36:39.000They say FBI agents raided the headquarters of the Ohio Organizing Collaborative on June 11th and deployed across the state to question members of the organization, sometimes bearing subpoenas or demanding to seize electronic devices, MSNI reported.
00:36:52.000A day later, multiple sources familiar with the events told CBS News that the operations were part of a fraud related investigation.
00:36:58.000I would just like to point out right now that With these FBI fraud investigations, with Watson v. RNC coming up, that's a Supreme Court ruling that could end early voting and late counted ballots.
00:37:11.000When Donald Trump seems not to care about polling as it pertains to the midterms, combine what we're seeing with these raids on these organizations over fraud with the redistricting efforts and this upcoming Supreme Court ruling.
00:37:23.000And I think the Republican strategy is basically like, we're going to win by procedure.
00:38:01.000Watson v. I thought it was the first one they brought up, but let's jump to it.
00:38:06.000The court is expected to issue two major decisions on elections and campaigns Watson v. RNC.
00:38:12.000They challenge a law in Mississippi that allows mail in bouts to be counted as long as they were postmarked by and received within five days of Election Day.
00:38:18.000An oral argument, a majority of the justices appeared ready to uphold a lower court's ruling that federal law requires all bouts to be received by Election Day.
00:38:27.000And in National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee v. Federal Election Commission, several justices were sympathetic to the argument made by the challengers that a federal law that limits the amount of money that political parties can spend in coordination with a candidate for office violates the First Amendment.
00:38:42.000So the issue is this on Watson v. Republican National Committee.
00:38:45.000The argument is you can't count bouts after Election Day.
00:38:49.000SCOTUS blog says they seem sympathetic to the idea that all bouts must be received by Election Day.
00:38:54.000This could be ruled on the narrow, broad, or very broad.
00:38:59.000If the argument is this Congress has codified a single day for elections, it is, what is it, the second Tuesday of November or something like that?
00:39:24.000Now, if they rule on a narrow set, just like that, but apply it broadly nationally, saying it's not just about federal elections, but this applies to elections in general, then theoretically they could argue, and I don't know that they will, that your primary elections must adhere to the Standards set by Congress as elections are held.
00:39:48.000So, if elections are to be a single day or they must all be counted on election day, then your primaries must function similarly.
00:39:55.000If they rule in that capacity, Spencer Pratt would have got second place and he moved to the general.
00:40:00.000Now, federally, they can rule more broadly and say, no, no, no, Congress codified a single day for elections, which means you cannot give ballots out earlier than election day.
00:40:12.000If they rule on that broadly, then holy smokes, Democrats never win again.
00:40:17.000They can go even more broadly than that, going double double and say ballots must be delivered and received on election day.
00:40:28.000You cannot send out mail in votes because those all de facto create multiple election days.
00:40:34.000All ballots must be counted by midnight.
00:40:37.000Or I have a feeling they will say you can count all ballots received in the day of election, however long it takes, but all elections, state, local, or otherwise, must adhere to the same standards set by Congress on federal elections.
00:40:51.000You may hold your elections at the state level as you see fit, but they must be in accordance with how the elections are held federally.
00:40:58.000And the reason why is a long shot, but I would argue this is what they should rule, and I bet Thomas and Alito do.
00:41:05.000If you create in a state multiple standards for how elections are held, it's confusing to the public and it's disenfranchising.
00:41:11.000The people of your state, you can determine as the state legislature how you conduct your elections so long as they're uniform.
00:41:19.000And if Congress has codified at the federal level, Federal elections are this day.
00:41:24.000Your primary elections can be on whatever day you want, but they have to function the same way so that the people who are voting know how to vote, when to vote, and what the rules are.
00:41:33.000If they do that and do this massive broad ruling, which I think is a long shot, it's a nuclear bomb for the Democrats who will never win again.
00:41:41.000Now, with the caveat, Democrats, of course, will adapt.
00:41:47.000But I'm saying I could get a little bit more extreme with it and say the Democratic Party is the oldest political party in the world.
00:41:52.000And technically, I'm surprised they still exist.
00:41:56.000So sooner or later, we're going to face the nuclear bomb, the earthquake in politics that, like most political parties around the world, the Democratic Party is just too old to function anymore.
00:42:07.000Well, they, I mean, they try to be, you know, they try to evolve with the times as they, because they've been pretty successful generally over the past 50 years or so.
00:42:15.000And as they've had successes, they've had to basically move the goalpost.
00:42:20.000I mean, we talk about when Obergefeld was decided about gay marriage, right?
00:42:26.000People were like, oh, if you get gay marriage and stuff, then you're going to, next thing you know, you're going to have, you know, gay people having kids and you're going to have all these other things.
00:42:35.000There's going to be all these crazy things.
00:42:37.000Now we have a question as to whether men can become women or women can become men.
00:42:42.000And that's something that's fairly new to the Democrat Party, right?
00:42:44.000In the past 10 years, it's become an actual issue.
00:42:48.000The Democrat Party has overall swung very far left, specifically with younger women, right?0.57
00:42:54.000Like Gen Z women, they're very far left.0.95
00:42:58.000These ideas were not at all considered by most of the mainstream Democrats 30 years ago.0.99
00:43:06.000There's always been a fringe, particularly since the 60s and stuff.
00:43:09.000But there was a time where you could find a quote unquote conservative Democrat.
00:43:37.000Basically saying, like, if you want to have a conversation about getting rid of it, we can do that.
00:43:41.000But At the national level, like a Democrat saying that they're anything other than anti data center would be insane given the way that that looks on the political spreadsheet.
00:43:51.000So, is it more that just at the national level, those wedge issues end up being a bigger deal?
00:43:58.000I don't know if it's just at the national level because you see so many people on local politics or municipal politics being elected that are very far left, right?
00:44:09.000You've got Lamdani, you've got the mayor of Seattle.
00:44:13.000Whether or not Karen Bass calls herself a socialist, Her policy.
00:44:16.000I'm saying local, like not state level, even, but like, you know, when you're talking about people, you're talking about local representatives and stuff like that.
00:44:25.000I'm like, I don't remember which elections this is coming up for in Maryland, but basically it's not like he's going for a federal level election.
00:44:33.000It's like a state level representative, and that's different than in this case, just feels like the issues are a lot more ground level.
00:45:20.000I don't blame these young people for seeking out something other than the Democratic Party because the Democratic Party is just garbage, stagnant, stale, with no new ideas.0.98
00:45:30.000However, the ideas they've adopted are very, very bad.0.92
00:45:33.000I think what's likely to happen is that MAGA splits into two factions, which become the left and right of the United States.
00:45:40.000And then we get this, I don't know what you'd call it, like malignant tumor of insurgency violence from these young people who think Trump is Hitler.
00:45:49.000They won't have strong institutional power because people are poor in violence.
00:45:52.000They love watching it on TV, but they really don't like seeing outside their door.
00:45:55.000But these people will be going around doing psychotic things like we saw with the UFC event and the arrests.
00:46:01.000I think the future is going to be just as simple as I reiterate once again.
00:46:06.000I do believe there's a decent probability that Mega breaks into two factions.
00:46:09.000We've talked about those rumors and what we've seen already.
00:46:53.000So, 17, 18 year olds, you know, 18 year olds getting out of college and they're trying to find work and they end up playing a bunch of jobs and they can't find work anywhere.
00:47:01.000Not to mention that online application portals are redundant, super annoying.
00:47:04.000It's like, how many people have been in that?
00:47:06.000Process where it's like, please list all of your credentials, job history, and everything.
00:47:12.000And then when you do, it's like, oh no, I'm sorry, it says, please upload your resume.
00:47:14.000And then when you do, it says, now list it all out.
00:48:14.000Bernie Sanders, who no one ever accused of being intelligent, says that he wants the government to take half equity, 50% equity stakes in large AI companies if they make at least 200 million or more.
00:48:25.000And that half of that money, those profits, would go towards a 5% annual dividend directly to the Americans.
00:49:34.000We're going to cut that in half and we're going to say we got $265 million.
00:49:43.000And if we were to take that and take 5% and divide it amongst all Americans, Do you know how much money the American people would get for one year?
00:50:36.000Try explaining the most complicated problem in plumbing to a bunch of five year olds and see how many of them are going to vote correctly.
00:50:44.000What's going to happen is you're going to run for an election among the five year olds and you're going to say, Listen, I am telling you this valve is busted and that's where the leak is coming from.0.94
00:50:52.000And the other kid's going to be like, But you smell like poo.0.71
00:50:54.000So I don't think anyone should listen.0.89
00:50:56.000The kids are going to laugh and they're going to vote to the other kid who's going to go around throwing glue and smashing things and breaking it.
00:51:00.000And that's Bernie Sanders and that's the DSA.
00:51:03.000If you take the net worth of every single billionaire in America and somehow you sell all their unrealized gains, which of course is completely impossible, but if you did it, it would equal one fourth of our national debt.
00:51:15.000If you stole all their money, it would not even make a dent.
00:51:46.000They're not communist, they're not Marxist, but they're just socialist in that Finland, Denmark kind of way.
00:51:53.000And so you have people like Tucker Carlson on his podcast, or rather, I think this was in an interview with the New York Times, and he's talking about a violent revolution between classes.
00:52:02.000Those are his exact words that he said.
00:53:02.000First, there are between 125,000 and 144,000 calories in the average human body.
00:53:08.000There are around 24 million millionaires and billionaires in the United States.
00:53:13.000If you were to break down all of those millionaires and billionaires into edible calories, like the left says they want to do, you could feed the United States population between three and four days.
00:53:22.000I'm going to cut so somebody can take mine.
00:53:24.000There's one thing that I, before we wrap this up or at least talking about AI, people don't see the tangible benefits or they don't think they see the tangible benefits for like every man when it comes to like AI.
00:53:36.000Mid Journey just announced that they have this new product called Mid Journey Scanner, and it is essentially a replacement for CT and MRI scans.
00:53:46.000You know, tank of water, and it drops this basically, this piece of equipment down, and it uses ultrasonic vibrations to basically map your body.
00:53:57.000Right now, they're going through trials.
00:54:00.000It says, unlike CT scans and x rays, which rely on ionizing radiation that can damage DNA and carry a small but cumulative risk of cancer with repeated exposure, the Mid Journey system uses harmless high frequency sound waves transmitted through water, a technology with decades of proven safety in standard ultrasound, including routine use during pregnancy.
00:54:16.000The point is, if this type of innovation becomes the norm, which is what it looks like it will be doing as AI advances, this is going to be the tangible.
00:54:30.000Bettering of your life that people are seeing.
00:54:32.000We will respond positively to that.1.00
00:54:34.000The political question here is about Bernie Sanders being retarded and how you shift economically in the face of not advanced medical technology, which I believe is only, it is absolutely material considering I think healthcare is around 20% of our economy.0.99
00:54:52.000The bigger issue, of course, is white collar jobs will evaporate overnight.0.66
00:54:56.000Bernie Sanders and all of these people are trying to come up with plans that make no sense.
00:55:01.000Now, I wonder why it is that these elites who run these AI companies are running full speed ahead, full steam ahead to build a technology that we know will basically eliminate the labor market.
00:55:16.000My assumption, just on this point, is that they know we can't just do it overnight, but we want to build it while we still have an economy and then ask the AI to solve the problem after the fact.0.89
00:55:28.000We also know that if we do implement these technologies and it does disrupt our economy, China will take over.
00:55:34.000So, it's a race to build it but not use it.
00:55:37.000This argument is the same argument that was made during the Industrial Revolution with all these labor saving devices.
00:55:42.000And in Europe, there was a change in working patterns, right?
00:55:47.000People decided that they wanted shorter working hours, they wanted more leisure time.
00:55:51.000But in the United States, people just became more productive.
00:55:54.000And you're also seeing that at a lot of AI companies.
00:55:56.000You do have AI companies that have agentic AI that they're working with.
00:56:05.000The Industrial Revolution didn't threaten 60 to 80% of the labor market.
00:56:09.000But the point that I'm making is there is a scenario in which instead of getting rid of jobs, they hire more people and they use this productivity to produce more.
00:57:50.000Instead of having a doctor spending so much time looking at people's charts or whatever and stuff, looking at their x rays and stuff, trying to figure out if something's wrong, you can actually say, okay, the doctor talks to him, feed it to an AI.
00:58:40.000And these statements are propaganda by lobbyists, government actors, friends of the administration who want Trump to spend hundreds of billions of dollars in advancing AI because AI is a weapon.
00:58:49.000It is going to change things, it will be disruptive to the economy, but we want to beat China to the punch.
00:58:54.000So, they come out and they say, actually, AI might increase productivity.
00:59:10.000There are people that are doing considerably more work using AI agents than they were capable of doing six weeks ago.
00:59:17.000You are going to see everybody fired in the short term.
00:59:20.000They are withholding AI technology intentionally because of this.
00:59:25.000We are not talking about the industrial revolution where we can reduce the cost of a vehicle from the equivalent of a million dollars to a thousand dollars.
00:59:31.000It's only the industrial revolution as an allegory.
01:00:14.000When we eliminate their job with AI and we wipe out something like 17 million jobs overnight, what do those administrative individuals do when there's no administrative.
01:00:28.000We have produced new technology after new technology after new technology, and you've seen the markets adapt and you've seen society adapt.
01:01:02.000And then Anthropic said the U.S. government, citing national security authorities, issued an export directive requiring Anthropic to disable access to the two models by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees.
01:01:15.000The net effect was that Anthropic disabled Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for everyone, both inside and outside the U.S. You can see the effect of that in, he says, in my Claude Code session when I launched the session.
01:01:25.000So this is presumably by the U.S. government concerns that foreign agents could get access to advanced AI technologies.
01:01:33.000But I'm going to posit something else because there.
01:01:35.000There is another theory, and we know that the leaders, the CEOs, and executives of all of these AI companies had meetings with the U.S. government.
01:01:44.000What they talked about, we don't entirely know for sure.
01:01:48.000The presumption it was, this is an arms race.
01:01:50.000We got to beat China, things like this.0.78
01:01:52.000However, one of the theories is that right now, for a fact, the internal LLMs that are used by these companies, if released to the public, would end white collar work.0.98
01:02:10.000The point of it, like, look, when you make an LLM that is very good at reasoning and also very good at coding, you're inherently making an LLM that's good at hacking.
01:02:19.000There were safeguards, there was a jailbreak.
01:02:22.000That allowed Fable to get around some of the safeguards that they put onto it.
01:02:27.000So, okay, I got to pause because I was talking about something totally different.
01:02:30.000You're talking about Fable 5 and why it was taken off the.
01:02:32.000And the point I'm making is not to address security concerns, but the theory, there is another theory that the leaders of AI companies met with the government and US government officials told these AI guys the current iterations of the large language models that you have, if released, In its entirety, right now, between all companies, would put an end to white collar work.
01:02:56.000We're talking about 40 to 50 million jobs gone in a matter of weeks.
01:03:00.000We are already seeing an attempt to make these shifts.
01:03:03.000But for some reason, the LLMs, despite as advanced as they are with image and video generation and sound generation, somehow can't carry a one.
01:03:12.000Tax jobs still require human personnel.
01:03:15.000Healthcare administrations still require personnel.
01:03:17.000And again, the theory is on the parts that don't matter, we talked about several months ago, Suno.com or C Dance.
01:03:35.000Now, why would AI companies have no problem perfecting a creative art which actually requires skill and expertise, but not release a program that can fully automate the healthcare administration industry?
01:03:47.000Well, again, the argument is they have the technology, it is rudimentary.
01:03:52.000They surpassed this a long time ago because it's just text based.
01:04:06.000You can tell it, I want to play Final Fantasy, and it will render you a version of it.
01:04:10.000But why then have they not released tax code AI that can just fully automate the tax industry?
01:04:16.000Again, for the same reason HR Block and Jackson Hewitt and these other tax companies still exist, despite the fact people can just do their taxes through the IRS.
01:04:24.000It is a massive portion of the economy, and we need something that lubricates the wheels of trade in this country.
01:04:30.000So, again, my argument is not that they're concerned about security because There's a million and one other questions related to that.
01:04:37.000My argument is right now we know for a fact, and I'll put it this is going to destroy productivity and economic output.
01:04:45.000And I'll give you one really great example.
01:04:47.000There is a finite amount of time in a day an individual can watch or listen to content.
01:04:56.000But there is an infinite, an exponential increase in the content right now due to AI.
01:05:02.000That means it used to be there were very few bands.
01:05:06.000And getting a vinyl cut was actually difficult to get made.
01:05:09.000The bands would play it live in a studio and try and record it perfectly.
01:05:12.000They'd cut them physically from that tape and then make as many that they'd sell out.
01:05:17.000Now it's infinite digital reproduction, and that was still people making the music.
01:05:22.000And now we're at the point where kids are listening to AI music.
01:05:27.000We're older, but I talk to people and I'm like, oh, my kid just puts on the AI music and they make whatever song they want or they change songs.
01:05:33.000We now have infinite output for creative content.
01:05:36.000For those that work in media, Which has become a dominant sector in the influence economy with young people desperately trying to be influencers.
01:05:43.000You are now, we are now competing with literally near infinite content production.
01:05:49.000This is not going to increase our productivity because there's a cap on what people can absorb.
01:06:29.000Why would I sit here for four hours recording myself talking when someone else just clicks a button and in 10 seconds has a four hour audio podcast extrapolating from the news?
01:06:39.000This is the destruction of productivity well beyond anything we have ever seen.
01:06:52.000And do you not think that we could come out on the other side of it better?
01:06:55.000Because obviously, yeah, our jobs could be screwed.
01:06:58.000This might not be an industry I'll be a part of in five or 10 years.
01:07:00.000That'd be sad, but it might be true.0.82
01:07:02.000But I think a lot of the printing press, where you had the printing press come out, and I know it doesn't sound like a big deal to us, but the fact that people could actually read the Bible literally caused millions and millions of people around the world to be slaughtered.
01:07:15.000And that was like a hundreds and hundreds of years problem.
01:07:46.000So you can take a look at the rise of the Communist Party and say, were it not for literacy, you wouldn't get the spread of communism because people wouldn't understand largely what was going on or being said to them.
01:07:58.000But the reality is, regardless of the means of conveyance or technologies behind any war or whatever, good people will try to do good things, bad people will try to do bad things.
01:08:07.000The issue with this AI is not whether it is good or bad because technology is not good or bad.
01:08:11.000The issue is it is advancing so rapidly that it will be so disruptive, it's going to lead us into some kind of economic downturn.
01:08:23.000And what I think history actually shows is everyone gets thrown into a bucket, shaken up real hard.
01:08:29.000And whoever survives the shake will go on and succeed in some capacity, but a lot of people are going to get crushed in the process.0.98
01:08:35.000So, what I'm trying to understand from your perspective, because I think that could happen, it's one theory, is are you just kind of saying, well, crap, we're screwed?0.54
01:08:43.000Or do you actually have a solution to this?0.61
01:08:44.000Like, do you think government intervention is what needs to happen in order for that?
01:08:47.000There is government intervention already.
01:08:49.000I just really don't know where you're standing on this.0.54
01:08:51.000If the argument right now is large language models and AI companies will wipe out the white collar market overnight with the destruction of our economy, our data centers will cease to operate.
01:09:06.000The monetary system and the jobs we have are basically lubrication to make sure things are happening.
01:09:10.000The problem is with growing population and advancing technology, which was reducing workload, you end up with people who can't do anything to get access to that economy.
01:09:18.000The solution from people like Bernie Sanders is tax the rich and communism.
01:09:22.000The problem there is some people still have to work.
01:09:24.000So, what happens when half the population is sitting around doing nothing and getting a free paycheck and the other half has to do those jobs?
01:09:31.000This needs to be curtailed and controlled.
01:09:33.000And so the government tries to do a few things.
01:09:35.000They withhold technologies intentionally so they prevent this mass disruption.0.69
01:09:40.000They don't want our economy disrupted, people losing work, and then a depression allowing China to surpass us and win because they're communists and they have a command economy.
01:09:49.000They also will use propaganda to manipulate the perception of what is actually happening with AI.
01:09:55.000But you got to ask yourself why it is they're spending something like 10 to 100 times the cost for land to build data centers, why they are dumping hundreds of billions, why the government did, what was the operation called to build AI?
01:10:14.000Why are they dumping so much money into this without a clear plan for monetization?
01:10:19.000This idea that we're going to use tokens and people will buy tokens.0.99
01:10:23.000The point I was making about Bernie Sanders and him being dumb as a box of rocks is that you cannot tax a system intended for a lesser economic output to replace the lost economic output is the stupidest thing I've ever heard.0.96
01:10:37.000To put it simply, if you fire the people at Taco Bell and replace them with robots and machines to build the tacos, You're not going to have people from Taco Bell with money to go to the grocery store to buy milk.0.98
01:10:48.000Then you're not going to have grocery store workers to go to Taco Bell and buy tacos.
01:10:52.000Automation will, and look, they're trying to find a solution to economics in an AI environment.
01:11:00.000Right now, I would say it's absolutely crazy that we make money complaining about things.
01:11:08.000So certainly there may exist some kind of economics.
01:11:11.000But the problem that I'm seeing is creative work is eliminated too.0.87
01:11:16.000So, if the argument is humans will seek out interpersonal creativity when they no longer have to work, we hear this stupid argument from communists all the time when communism succeeds, I'll play music and do art.0.97
01:11:28.000Because when AI expands beyond this and there's no more need for your labor, there's going to be 700 billion paintings per day.
01:11:36.000This is what's going on in Hollywood right now.
01:11:38.000What's happening is the large scale AI companies that are doing work that involves creatives, like screenwriting or adding to.
01:11:47.000That aspect of the above the line work.
01:11:49.000They're hiring the James Camerons of the world.
01:11:51.000They're hiring the Martin Scorsese of the world to work as spokesmen for these AI companies to try and get people in Hollywood to be comfortable with the idea of working with AI.
01:12:01.000But the funny thing about it in that industry is Martin Scorsese is talking about how he hires, like, he's using this AI program that they clearly paid him to make this advertisement for to do all the storyboards for possibly his next project.
01:12:15.000How much easier it is to work on this project now that he can.
01:12:18.000Work with this AI program to convey what he wants on this program.
01:12:23.000And I'm looking back at old movies, and you've got your screenwriters on those movies, but the people that are going to benefit from this aren't the studios.
01:12:30.000The studios in Hollywood can afford to hire the storyboard artist for that.
01:12:34.000Yeah, maybe they'll streamline it down the road, but it's the independent filmmakers that end up benefiting from having access to an AI tool that can help them write storyboards.
01:12:44.000The problem is, in that industry, it is a taboo thing to be okay.
01:12:48.000At working with any type of AI program because they see it as not just stealing their work, but taking their jobs.
01:12:54.000And what's going on right now in the industry, it's a union, it's got all to do with unions as well, with the industry collapsing, all of the work moving overseas.
01:13:03.000And they're talking about how they want to flip all of these non union productions that are being made and turn them union, despite the fact that the unions are the reason why movies are in mass being made in other countries now.
01:13:14.000And AI is just another rung on that ladder where they're trying to get the studio, the studios are trying to get.
01:13:21.000People comfortable with working with it because, like Disney has said, if you go to Disney right now to work as an animator, you sign in your contract, your work is being used to train AI.
01:13:32.000If you look at the trailer that came out today for Hex, the next Disney animated movie, it looks like Sora made it.
01:13:37.000Everything is framed directly in the middle.
01:13:39.000Looks like it was designed specifically to make into YouTube shorts.
01:13:43.000It's not exactly something people would see as creative, but lots of jobs have been taken from them because they are starting to train these things on AI.
01:13:51.000But it's not the big studios that'll benefit from it at first.
01:13:54.000Goldman Sachs wrote in 2023 that about 40 to 60% of administrative support roles are at risk.
01:14:02.000Their tasks will largely be automated, and they will eliminate a majority of these jobs.
01:14:08.000Goldman Sachs is warning about this for investors, telling them, If you're going to be putting money in companies that are largely based on administration, you're about to lose everything.
01:14:17.000To Phil's point earlier about productivity, there are aspects of that industry that they can benefit somebody who doesn't have the budget of a big budget movie to be able to make a movie, having access to a program that can do storyboarding.
01:14:27.000Again, again, but this is more to the point.
01:14:31.000How is a studio supposed to make money if they're not competing with the guy in his garage?
01:15:15.000Aren't interested in knowing how to do this stuff.
01:15:17.000They're not even interested in being like, oh, make me this.
01:15:20.000What'll happen is you'll still have people saying, oh, you should check out this.
01:15:24.000And they'll still be a small group of people that, whether you call them creators or whether you call them people that just know how to prompt AI properly to get the best result, there will be people that will be like, oh, you should check out this version.
01:15:38.000It's not going to be a situation where just everybody makes their own because there are people that are just not interested in doing that.
01:15:42.000I have literally zero interest in doing that.
01:15:44.000Maybe the idea that, Disney sets up their AI center and somebody says, go watch this version of it.
01:15:50.000But even then, that doesn't necessarily work for me because I like the event of it.
01:15:53.000I want to go to the theaters to see the movies.
01:16:27.000Decided instead of getting a job, I went and started my own media company, started a show, and I make more money now than I would have in a journalism industry.
01:16:34.000Doesn't say a lot because you don't get anything in the journalism industry.
01:16:37.000But all of what I do is only possible because of AI.
01:17:09.000And instead, what we're seeing with journalism right now is, and this has been true forever, with the culture war especially, people don't want journalism.
01:17:34.000Like, there's already people who are already lying.
01:17:36.000And sure, they make great money, but there's also people telling the truth.
01:17:38.000And it's easier and easier and easier for people to lie and make fake content and make money doing so.
01:17:43.000So it becomes harder and less lucrative.
01:17:45.000So basically, my point is this people need it's, I forgot there's a term for it, but the example that I like to cite is how Donald Trump became worse than Hitler is that, you know, when Trump runs for office, someone wrote, Donald Trump makes racist comment, gets a million views.
01:18:00.000Then they're like, wow, that did well.
01:18:26.000Now, what happens when, I mean, I didn't go to journalism school.
01:18:31.000What happens when you have, again, a finite amount of hours in the day for content consumption and an infinite amount of content being produced?
01:18:38.000You will not be able to make a living doing it.
01:18:43.000Like, no one is going to have the economic output to give you enough money, or I should say, the critical mass will not exist that you can acquire enough money from enough individuals that you can go out and have a meal with your family.
01:18:55.000I think this is the beauty of capitalism and entrepreneurism.
01:18:57.000This is why I'm really scared about the government getting involved because it can curb capitalism.
01:19:42.000I remember when Fruity Loops came out and we were doing beats on a computer, and there were bands that we knew were slightly older that they were like, This is lame, man.
01:21:00.000So, when it comes to streaming, we're talking about mass distribution and replicability of a song.
01:21:06.000And so, we saw first, yeah, I mean, revenue flattened because people were selling music.
01:21:11.000Selling music is no longer a component.
01:21:13.000In whether or not your song does well, the streaming platforms can just put you on rotation and then claim you did well, and all of a sudden you're famous.
01:21:20.000You're on top because they decided that they would put you in rotation for their top songs.
01:21:25.000With this, we're talking about going on Pandora and, you know, or Spotify is a better example because Pandora isn't doing nearly as well.
01:21:33.000What happens when Atlantic goes to, you know, Atlantic will go to like Spotify and they'll say, listen, we know that you really want Taylor Swift.
01:21:40.000Well, we want to make sure that you put some of our other artists in your, you know, default streaming for top hits, your playlists, so that we can sell their, you know, can sell them too.
01:21:49.000And we want to do shows and we want to get revenue from the streaming.
01:21:52.000What happens when Atlantic says, I don't want to pay Taylor Swift?0.61
01:21:57.000For herself, why would I want to be bothered by that?1.00
01:22:00.000We don't need to do 360 deals anymore.1.00
01:22:01.000We can just create a fake person and music and own it completely, put that in rotation.
01:22:07.000One of the hardest parts about that right now is whether it's TV and movies, but also with musicians, is you're not just tied to your music, you're tied to your social media platform.
01:22:16.000And there are large accounts tied to like fake AI people that have social media accounts.
01:22:22.000But if you want to get play, whether it's get a role in a big movie or sometimes working with these artists, They expect you to have a large social media platform as well because they want access to all the people that follow you.
01:22:33.000They'll sign based on the size of your social media.
01:22:35.000And that doesn't always translate into people that go into venues, right?
01:22:39.000These artists that are social media famous get a song into some kind of algorithm or in some kind of reel or something.
01:22:44.000They'll have millions of followers, but people don't show up to their show.
01:22:48.000And speaking to what you were saying earlier about authenticity, in the YouTube space, most of them, now some of them might make money or make a brunt of their revenue based on the ad rates for people who click on their videos.
01:22:59.000But a lot of them, they go off and they do other things.
01:23:05.000Some people do some type of merch line, other ways to monetize beyond just their videos because what people buy into them, if you're in the space that I'm in, you're lauded for your authenticity.
01:23:20.000But the point we were having earlier, it sounded like you were saying this is the doom of any chance to make a living in these spaces at all.
01:23:27.000Right now, as more competitive is an understatement, infinite competition.
01:23:34.000Like the fact that we were able to make a coffee company the way we did, white labeling through a distributor, we got samples, we blended some things up, found the flavors we liked.
01:23:43.000We didn't have to build a warehouse, we didn't have to import all of these beans.
01:23:48.000We found a company that did that and we said, we want to make signature blends, brand them for us, and then sell them.
01:23:55.000We compete with a million and one coffee companies.
01:23:58.000People buy from us because they like that we have good blends or they're fans of the show.
01:24:29.000So if you go to Shark Tank, I love Shark Tank, by the way, and say, I want to sell coffee, they're going to say, not a single major distributor will give you any shelf space for this.
01:25:04.000Everyone in media right now is losing money and viewership to AI content.
01:25:09.000It is one of the most frustrating things ever.
01:25:12.000To argue with people who don't see the ramifications behind the scenes of how media is being destroyed by AI content.
01:25:18.000The same amount of views is getting substantially less money across the board, and it's harder and harder to get views because there is an infinite amount of videos popping up on YouTube, some 30% AI generated.
01:25:29.000So, where we used to make money, and again, I completely understand the irony in me saying this, knowing full well that technology disrupted the existing media giants when I came in.
01:25:41.000I am telling you, this chain of events has happened before and it will happen again.
01:25:45.000So, for instance, when I entered the scene, I'm at the National Association of Broadcasters in the Netherlands.
01:30:32.000It's being redistributed to maybe more people.
01:30:34.000And the point is a single individual will not be able to make enough money for a single individual's living.
01:30:40.000So for me, when I was doing six videos per day and I was getting 5 million views on one channel, And I think that YouTube.com slash Timcast was doing like 800,000.
01:30:50.000It was going to be about 400,000 per day because it was only one video.
01:30:53.000I was doing at that time about 3.5 million per year.
01:30:57.000By the end of 2019, I did $8 million in YouTube revenue alone.
01:31:04.000As a single individual by myself complaining on the internet, that's insane money.
01:31:45.00012 or 13 every single day we're throwing into the mix in competition with everybody else.
01:31:50.000None of us humans. Will be able to compete with AI generated content.
01:31:54.000It's not possible, which means our companies will cease to exist.
01:31:58.000We will not be able to pay our employees.
01:32:01.000Then, when it comes down to the individual level, you will end up with single individuals, $30,000 a year, maybe, and they're going to say, I'm struggling and I can't work this way.
01:32:12.000It will become infinitely unsustainable for the average person.
01:32:15.000So, I don't think we're disagreeing with you.
01:32:16.000This is my last point on this because I know we've been on it for a long time.
01:32:18.000This is kind of, I think, how I feel, maybe how you feel, Phil, is that.
01:32:23.000Yes, it may be true, like every other industry throughout the history of the world, that it becomes oversaturated, and me or you or any of those other people out there realize I cannot make a living doing this thing.
01:32:53.000But this is the fastest we have ever seen an economic revolution.
01:32:57.000I believe the governments and these companies are intentionally holding this back because the growth has been insane.
01:33:03.000Some people speculate, we've heard this from some of the top AI guys, that artificial general intelligence has already been produced and it's not being released to the public for a variety of reasons, one of which may be the economic issue.
01:33:16.000Over a long enough period of time, humans can adapt.
01:33:18.000Over a long enough period of time, industries can adapt.
01:33:20.000But over the span of two years, you can't lay off 30 to 40 million people and think they're going to find a way to survive.
01:33:26.000Yeah, I think where I'm coming from, I think a lot of people in the same camp are coming from, is that with something as disruptive as AI, I agree that it'll be fast.
01:33:35.000But we've also never had a tool that can help you adapt as fast as AI.
01:33:38.000And I think AI is very unique in that way, in that it's disrupting, but also helping you potentially if you're smart enough to use it.
01:33:44.000And I disagree in that capacity because of two problems.
01:33:47.000First, the recitation problem and model collapse.
01:33:49.000So, the recitation problem, for those that watch the show and already know, because I've said it a million times, is that AI tends to ignore your question and give you a generic response based on the majority.
01:33:58.000This is a problem because, oh my God, every single time I put a question into any AI, I deal with this problem.
01:34:07.000So, for instance, just now when I asked it how many calories are in a single human, it ignored my question on how many calories are in a human, and it gave me the response something like how many calories a human needs, because it's not actually reading your prompt.
01:34:21.000I hit the recitation problem specifically around the gambler's fallacy and the mathematician's fallacy.
01:34:27.000And this is a really great example that you can all do yourself.
01:34:30.000I won't do the test because I want to go through it quickly.
01:34:32.000But if you go to a casino and you're in a physical location and you want to play roulette, People will tell you, so if you go to play roulette, red and black, right?
01:34:40.000They throw the ball in the wheel and it comes up red or black.
01:34:43.000They will always tell you, it doesn't matter if it comes up red every time, each role is independent of each other.0.91
01:34:49.000There's no such thing as black being due.0.95
01:34:53.000However, that statement is called the mathematician's fallacy the presumption that math exists in a vacuum, that when you walk into a physical location with a physical device run by a human being, it's going to behave as though it's an abstract mathematical equation.
01:35:04.000Gamblers know this and they do what's called AP Advantage Play.
01:35:08.000Where they intentionally wait and watch a dealer to see if he develops a signature.
01:35:11.000It's called a signature spin, which results in the ball landing in the same quadrants every time.
01:35:16.000And then you can actually get an edge against the casino.
01:35:18.000If you ask any AI generically about this, it will give you an incorrect response.
01:35:26.000AI does not actually analyze what your prompt is, it seeks to find the highest probability response based on the internet, which leads us to the second problem, which is called model collapse.
01:35:36.000When we get to a point where content, music, Videos, podcasts, or otherwise, documentaries are at least 51% produced by AI.
01:35:46.000The models begin ingesting AI generated content to output AI generated content.
01:35:53.000So, this problem we are seeing is going to, one, if released right now, be too quickly transformative to an economy, which will disrupt white collar jobs and creative jobs to the tune of 20, 30 million jobs in the span of a couple of years.
01:36:07.000You cannot have that massive an economic downturn.
01:36:09.000Now, people could adapt, but The next problem becomes how our minds adapt to a culture of a fact You're watching a documentary about Plato's allegory in the cave.
01:38:04.000So the video where he just has like a hoof and the lower part of the leg chucks it down.
01:38:12.000I asked ChatGPT and Grok how many illegal immigrants were held under the Obama administration.
01:38:19.000And it said the Obama administration gave me this long winded paragraph that was unnecessary and then went on to give me the numbers about its deportations.
01:38:35.000So if you go to someone and say, This is what happened.
01:38:38.000A guy sent me a text and he says, Did you know that Donald Trump has held more illegal immigrants than Hitler held in the concentration camps?
01:38:44.000And I went, That's obviously not true.
01:38:48.000So I went to Grok and ChatGPT and I said, How many illegal immigrants were held under the Trump administration in the first term?
01:38:56.000And then I said, I did not ask about deportations.
01:38:59.000The only problem is, if you're a midwit and someone sent you that and you asked the question of ChatGPT and it told you, 3.5 million people, and you associated held with deportations because you don't know the difference.0.80
01:39:14.000You would believe Donald Trump put 3.5 million people in his first term in concentration camps by their logic.
01:39:25.000But the whole assumption that we're going under is that this AI is going to disrupt the economy so bad because of the fact that it's so good, it's going to replace workers.
01:39:32.000And now you're bringing up a big problem that AI has.
01:39:35.000If AI continues to do that, you don't think it's going to be disruptive.
01:39:43.000Doing taxes, you don't got to worry about the recitation problem for math, for doing taxes or for HR work.
01:39:49.000Administrative work can be done because you're asking, this is the most rudimentary of AI work, which I'm saying all of the LLMs could do this right now.
01:39:58.000You are asking a large language model to simply assign a schedule, like work hours for employees.
01:40:27.000One thing we're seeing too on top of this is that teachers in public schools are creating their curriculum with AI, which, cite the recitation problem, is getting it wrong, giving it to the students who then ask ChatGPT to solve the homework, give that assignment back, give their homework to the teacher who then asks ChatGPT to grade it.
01:40:45.000Not a single human interacts with knowledge in any way.
01:41:17.000I've been pretty transparent with my audience.
01:41:19.000I don't do a single lick of shorts editing because I hate all of that.
01:41:23.000It does a ton of my editing, it does a lot of my thumbnails.
01:41:26.000I mean, all of the lighting, like anyone who's done graphic design, I mean, graphic designers are in a big.
01:41:33.000You know, trouble spot right now because of just how good AI can generate images right now.
01:41:39.000In terms of content myself, you know, I put out way more now than I ever did before.
01:41:43.000And so I guess that's kind of what I'm measuring for how much more productive I am.
01:41:48.000I'm thinking, you know, if I'm putting twice the amount of content out, that must mean there's kind of two of me now.
01:41:54.000And I can't afford to pay another one of me right now, but I can afford to pay 50 bucks a month to get Gemini or to get all the other great products out there.
01:42:05.000I think we are headed for a cultural crisis and an economic crisis because of the speed at which AI is rolling out.
01:42:13.000The economic crisis that Tim's talking about isn't, I don't think that it'll be AI that does it.
01:42:17.000I think that it's going to take the robotics industry in conjunction with AI because there's still so many jobs out there that people do with their hands, but robots are coming that will be able to do all of those.
01:42:29.000Once AI is capable of, once you get an AGI that can actually navigate the world like a person does, Which is maybe 18 months to two years away.
01:45:14.000So, the big corporation can make billions of dollars extracting the value from the regular working class people, and then the plumber has no job anymore and he can't buy things.
01:45:26.000The best idea he could come up with was let's take half their money.
01:45:30.000That's not going to work because you can't displace 10 economic units for one, then tax the one at 50% and think that half economic unit is going to cover the cost of the guy who lost 10.
01:45:43.000It sounds very communist, very socialist to me.
01:45:45.000You brought up a company, you're acting like that company is one person, Elon Musk making all this money, but Tesla's made hundreds, thousands of millionaires.
01:46:08.000So what does a plumber do when he loses his job to a robot in three years?
01:46:11.000Well, I don't know the answer to that because I don't know what that is.
01:46:13.000The problem, again, is not automation from robots and artificial intelligence.
01:46:17.000It is the speed at which it is happening.
01:46:20.000If this guy aged out and he was retiring and the company brought in, you know, Gen Alpha is only half the size of Gen Z, probably intentionally.0.60
01:46:28.000If I was conspiratorial, I'd argue that the Malthusians since the 70s and since DARPA began building artificial intelligence planned for population collapse intentionally because they knew this was going to happen.
01:46:37.000So eventually, you have people saying, There are no plumbers.0.90
01:46:46.000That's going to be when Gen Alpha is 35 and they're trying to find trades workers for their homes.
01:46:54.000Then we're going to be like the robots will take the place of the plumber.
01:46:57.000But once again, There's still the problem of when you automate the job, you don't automate the customer.
01:47:03.000So, by eliminating an individual, a single plumber is not just a plumber.
01:47:08.000He's a customer for a carpenter, as the carpenter is the customer for the plumber.
01:47:12.000You eliminate one of those from the equation, now the other one doesn't have a customer, so he can't afford to rent the bot either.
01:47:17.000These are the economic problems we're trying to face or we're trying to solve that Bernie and literally no one, even Elon Musk said, we need a high value universal basic income to solve this problem.
01:47:27.000Even Elon doesn't know how to solve it.
01:47:36.000Smash the like button, share the show with everyone you've ever met in your life.
01:47:39.000The uncensored portion of the show will be coming up at 10 p.m., of course.
01:47:44.000You don't want to miss it, but let's grab what you guys got to say.
01:47:47.000Meetho says the Supreme Court ruled today that possessing or smoking marijuana is not disqualifying for gun ownership or arrest worthy for smoking and having a gun.
01:47:55.000Not legal still, but decriminalized in that way, which is really interesting.
01:47:59.000Because I don't know how that makes sense.
01:48:02.000Well, I think it was Alito today that said that smoking marijuana now is equivalent to drinking alcohol, you know, 50 years ago or whatever.
01:48:11.000Actually, I'm not sure the time frame.
01:49:33.000I believe, as part of sentencing, if it's a violent crime, they say you're hereby sentenced to 15 years in prison and 25 years of suspended gun rights.
01:49:40.000That way you know when you've served your time and you're eligible to defend yourself again.
01:49:43.000I mean, I suppose it should be suspension of your rights.
01:49:46.000Well, for argument's sake, it should be suspension of your rights because if you're a felon, you can't vote either, so you lose the right to vote.
01:50:44.000Shortwave says news stunning from the White House as the corrupt Trump government harasses brave, unhoused voters, some of whom bravely voted 35 times last election.
01:51:54.000Philip Mitchell says, acting like slavery wasn't the normal for all of time until the 1700s and ended by white men around the world, then acting like they owe you something is the most ridiculous ish.0.98
01:52:43.000Actually, I wouldn't be surprised if it was the end of October he announced that they're planning a national gas tax holiday for January into February that Congress will surely approve after January 3rd when they come in.
01:53:01.000I know this is a crazy hypothetical, like this is probably impossible, but if somehow Trump was able to get national gas prices down to 99 cents, don't you think, like, 100% chance Republicans sweep the House and Senate?
01:53:24.000I think that that's dependent on how people feel.
01:53:26.000I think I'm still of the opinion, I've said this a bunch of times, if the United States, if the average person in America feels like they're doing well economically, the Republicans have a chance.
01:53:38.000If they don't feel like they're doing well economically, the Republicans don't have a chance.
01:53:42.000I don't think that Gen Z really factors into this because largely they don't vote specifically in off year elections.
01:53:49.000I think that your point about the gas prices, if you knock the gas prices down to, you know, whatever, $1.50, 99 cents, I think that that would do major things for them.
01:53:58.000I do think that you need to do more than just a month.
01:54:01.000I think it would have to be a few months leading up to it and a little bit afterwards for people to actually feel like they're doing well because I think that the gas relief would take a little while to make people feel like they're actually making economic gains.
01:54:14.000We got a great post from NNY403 and he says, Tim, regarding AI, I remind you that in Star Trek, the next generation, Picard still had a vineyard.
01:54:32.000In Star Trek, they went through social collapse, world war.
01:54:38.000After human civilization collapsed and everyone was killing each other, a police force emerged from a totalitarian government where the cops were all drugged so that they would enforce brutal laws against people.
01:54:49.000Finally, after they clawed through the mess with the help of the Vulcans, literal aliens, They did have a peaceful advanced society with vineyards.
01:54:58.000My point is not that these things won't retain value, I got a bunch of collectibles behind me, but that the speed by which AI will be implemented will wipe out so many jobs, you won't have anyone capable of buying Picard's wine.
01:55:14.000But if you are looking for a way to separate yourself from the competition before that happens, before the AI destroys everything and we're all out of a job, the best thing you can do is, unless you are like a master at using.
01:55:27.000AI to create content is to create things that have a strong feel of authenticity and find a way to build an audience that still apparently has a job until, of course, it's all gone.
01:55:38.000I think what he's really looking for is you to watch Star Trek.
01:55:59.000Brought back Jerry Ryan for one of the other iterations.
01:56:01.000She was a guest star, I think, in Picard probably, because they were like, Remember, you know, remember all the things from the 90s?
01:56:07.000But if they do a new show that's based on an enterprise going on a trip and they do an episodic with, you know, so apparently the show is going to be, they go to an uncharted part outside of the galaxy or something.
01:58:04.000He has clothes that he presses a button and it gets shorter or whatever because they were applying the standard of that day with what they think the future might hold.
01:58:12.000So, a good example is there's a picture from like 1890 or something of firefighters.
01:58:17.000With mechanical wings and they're flying as they put out fires because they couldn't comprehend the advanced technologies we'd have, like drones.
02:00:10.000Like I wrote the song, played it into my phone, uploaded it to Suno, and then hit render to turn it into like indie rock, electronica, or like synth rock.
02:00:31.000I got to tell you, like, I see no reason for someone to spend as much money as they did on song production these days when you can literally just play on an acoustic guitar the song you want and you can tell it what to make.
02:00:43.000You can then go into Suno Studio and tweak octaves, change drum patterns, re render drum patterns.
02:00:49.000You can tell it what kind of drum pattern you want.
02:02:10.000Uh, Charlestown Casino, they do these promos where they're like, You could win one million dollars, and then the very fine print is over 40 years.
02:02:21.000You enter these contests thinking a million bucks, you get 25,000 a year for 40 years.0.99
02:02:24.000My, uh, in my dark days, I go on X and I watch CPA and I read CPAs arguing about lottery winners who choose to either take the lump sum or the well, there was that chick who won like a million bucks, was like, I'll take a thousand dollars, and they're like, You are dumb, you should not do that.0.92
02:02:40.000They're like, Put that in the market, and you'll make way more money in your first year, but you know.
02:03:00.000I watched a bunch of his videos and I found that if you speak very quickly and angrily and make things up, you just sound right and people will listen.
02:03:09.000You know, that's how I learned how to debate.
02:03:17.000Now, someone's going to send him that clip and he's going to be like, I'm going to debate you, Tim Pool, and then we're going to end up debating.
02:04:08.000We're on all the audio platforms as well.
02:04:10.000Also, if you are a member of the Timcast Discord, you should join me twice a month on Saturdays at 7 p.m. I do an additional bonus episode.
02:04:17.000I cover some of the news and pop culture, but also take calls and talk to you guys.
02:04:22.000If you've got questions, we can debate a little bit.
02:08:56.000Who will explain for me to my wonderful son, Baron, who is a great student at a fantastic school, that his dad will likely not be allowed to attend his graduation ceremony, something that we have been talking about for years, because a seriously conflicted and corrupt New York State judge wants me in criminal court on a bogus Biden case, which,
02:09:23.000according to virtually all legal scholars and Pundits has no merit and should never have been brought.
02:09:30.000This fake case is solely meant to attack crooked Joe Biden's political opponents.
02:09:36.000Me, who is seriously leading him in the polls for purposes of election interference.
02:09:43.000The Judge Juan Mergent is preventing me from proudly attending my son's graduation.
02:11:03.000The whole point of this is to demoralize straight people, you know?
02:11:07.000There's so much of that, the intent of it is to make people that are normal think that they're abnormal and to make people that are abnormal think that they're normal.
02:14:11.000Well, I've been reliably told that our teachers are underpaid and they are saving America one student at a time, even though they're exiting school and not being able to read.0.62
02:16:07.000I don't think, I think it should be on the parents, right?
02:16:11.000I don't want to see any sort of like government restriction coming in for it.
02:16:15.000But if we are seeing them take some sort of action and digital ID is the route that they have gone with, I want to propose a different option.
02:16:25.000I think that it should be on the internet service provider or the cell phone service provider.
02:16:32.000To provide a secondary segmented branch of the internet with everything that is required.
02:16:40.000It's already pre blocked, and the parent just has to figure out which password to give their child, basically.
02:18:01.000If some kind of law like that passes here in the U.S., I don't see how there's any way actually around it.
02:18:08.000Now, granted, I don't think the law should pass.
02:18:10.000I think online anonymity is important.
02:18:16.000But I do think if either of the parties come together and decide they're going to do it or whatever, and it actually does pass, I don't really see a way around it aside from deciding that you're not going to be on the internet.
02:18:27.000Imagine, like, with all the things our government can't get done, that's the thing they get to.
02:18:32.000Like, we can't pass, say, America, but we can pass digital ID.1.00
02:19:17.000We all need to, yeah, we all need to turn Amish and just go back to the barter system, right?
02:19:22.000Yeah, I mean, look, I avoid the internet altogether.
02:19:24.000I under, yes, but I mean, I understand that people are, are, you know, apprehensive about this stuff and I don't like it either.
02:19:30.000But I do think, honestly, like, if it's not, if it doesn't get passed, like, with the millennial generation, Gen Z will pass it and they'll pass it probably happily because the, like, the.
02:19:43.000Finally, but you're staring at your phone and everybody knows the CIA is looking at your front facing camera while you poop.
02:19:49.000I mean, if you actually want privacy, you have to leave your phone in a place and go to a different location with no actual electronics on you.
02:19:57.000Like, I could get privacy at my place in New Hampshire, leave the phones in the house and walk out into the woods.
02:20:56.000If you have a number in your phone and it says mom and someone else has the same number and it says Janice, well, then Facebook's going to say, oh, mom is Janice.
02:21:06.000That's a person we can make a profile out of.0.99
02:21:08.000I have fake numbers in my phone just to fuck with.0.99
02:21:24.000Phone numbers in my phone from 20 years.
02:21:26.000I don't need these people being connected to me on X.
02:21:29.000Yeah, I mean, I always say, no, I'm not going to give you my contacts, but I don't know exactly how much stuff has been scraped from my phone.
02:22:11.000I think it's scarier, not that they're listening to us, but that the advertisers know us so well through all the things that we've looked at that we talked about it that day, not because they heard our lips, but because they literally know how our minds think.
02:22:55.000So the thing is, in 2019, Lachlan Murdoch, they sold off all the rights to their entertainment and got out of the entertainment making business and got into the advertised selling business.
02:24:09.000Street Fighter is our big hope for the year.
02:24:11.000I'm really excited for Street Fighter.
02:24:13.000Well, TJ, you want to add anything or shout anything out?
02:24:16.000So, yeah, I'll just kind of reiterate just a little bit.
02:24:19.000If they're doing digital ID, it can either be done from the application level where you have to verify with like Facebook or X and hit all of your applications, which would be super cumbersome, I think.
02:24:31.000You can do it from the device level, which is, you know, Apple or Android would, you know, have your digital ID and just apply it to everything.
02:24:39.000But I still think that the best solution is just a segmented internet and like you get to choose what internet your kids get to access.
02:24:48.000And then we don't have to worry about the digital ID.
02:24:52.000As for a shout out, a little earlier today, I went up to visit my sister in the hospital because she just birthed her first baby boy.
02:27:12.000Olivia advised me not to say the actual word, so.
02:27:15.000So, my whole thing is I've been holding it.
02:27:18.000I've been wanting to call on you guys for the past like four or five months and ask this question, but I haven't because I didn't know if it was going to cancel or not.
02:28:00.000Obviously, on the TV, they haven't been talking about it.
02:28:03.000I'm pretty sure in the stands, they won't show it, but ground level, you've seen all the videos online like the Tartan Army taking over Boston, Japan, the Netherlands, and Dallas.
02:28:14.000All these fans, all these Europeans coming over, everyone just enjoying it.
02:28:18.000But I'm pretty sure there'll be videos, street level, of fans from my band in Egypt and possibly clashes with the whole LGBT community.
02:28:27.000Like, how do you think that will go on street level?
02:28:44.000We didn't get into the Major League Baseball thing, but they put Bible verses on their hats, and then the minor league team in York refused to wear the pride uniform.0.63
02:29:05.000Wow, you guys think anything will happen?
02:29:07.000Oh, I was just going to say that for the halftime show, they could, like, I'm not saying they should do this, but they would, like, erect a tower and throw someone off.
02:29:48.000I just wanted a good laugh on this thing.
02:29:49.000I just wanted to see what you guys thought about.
02:29:50.000Because they were talking about the stuff up in the actual stadium itself celebrating Pride.
02:29:55.000So, I didn't know if, like, You think like certain fans will tear things down, like anything will happen in the actual stadium itself on the street level?
02:30:02.000See, what they should be doing too is like I did a story today about how this journalist asked Millie Alcock, who's the star of the upcoming Supergirl movie, how she felt about Supergirl being a queer icon to the LGBTQ community.
02:30:17.000They should go to the players from Egypt and Iran and just ask them, like, what do you feel like?
02:30:21.000How do you feel about being an icon for the LGBTQ community?
02:32:57.000In any case, two years ago, things are blending at this point.
02:33:00.000But in any case, back to my question, just for the whole panel.
02:33:06.000This is kind of a serious question, so let's start with it.
02:33:09.000Assuming the U.S. was successful in slowing down China, enough with the Iran war and Venezuela takeover and the Russia war and everything.
02:33:20.000Can you tell me, and assuming America also stays the dominant power, how does America deal with the fact that China can continue to offer alternative funding, tech stacks, partnerships to autocratic governments around the world?
02:33:35.000Well, if their economy is continually being crushed and we control the flow of energy, that's no threat to us.
02:33:39.000You control the energy, you control the world.
02:34:00.000I'm not trying to be somebody against, but the point is, the way I see it very often in this case is that I think you're being, sorry to say it, cocky a bit in this case, maybe.
02:34:11.000It's, I think, the Betamax VHS situation.
02:34:14.000China doesn't have to be the top power to help autocratic governments.
02:34:20.000If you understand my point, they can still, Serbia is one of the first examples.
02:34:24.000We are basically in China's pocket to a large degree.
02:34:29.000And recently, America, for example, started investing in AI data centers here, like.
02:38:06.000Do you want to shout anything out, brother?
02:38:11.000Yeah, I just wanted to shout out two TV shows because you like Star Trek, and I think I watched everything you suggested so far Stargate, Star Trek, and everything.
02:38:44.000It reminds me like the old Star Trek things.
02:38:46.000You know, it's like one episode, one new thing happening, and kind of a Deep Space Nine thing moving from episodic to kind of a serial TV show, you know.