Trump and Kamala Harris to appear on the Joe Rogan's Show? Is it a big deal or not? What does it mean for the chances of a Trump win in 2020? And what will happen if he loses?
00:00:00.000I'm absolutely loving this arc right now.
00:00:21.000Donald Trump is trying to earn female votes.
00:00:24.000Kamala Harris is trying to earn male votes.
00:00:26.000They're both having their difficulties.
00:00:28.000And the rumors are now that both Trump and Kamala Harris are set to appear on Joe Rogan.
00:00:33.000The funniest thing about this is that I'm imagining Joe Rogan at home being like, I have no idea what's going on.
00:00:39.000But of course, because he's he's a king of the castle when it comes to podcasting with one of the largest audiences and the largest, probably moderate audience.
00:00:51.000So Kamala Harris's team all across the media is saying she's going to make an appearance or working on it, whatever it is, they're trying to make it seem like it's going to happen.
00:00:57.000Trump said he believes he is going on Rogan's podcast.
00:01:00.000I wonder how much of this is external media pressure to try and force Joe to accept this, because I'm sitting here being like, Joe ain't said nothing.
00:01:08.000And Joe's show is very straightforward.
00:01:57.000A movie producer, a war game, hypothesizing what will happen if Trump loses and the military, factions of the military and the National Guard join him.
00:02:07.000Well, they don't use the word Civil War, but we started off the show by saying it.
00:02:12.000So, of course, smash that like button, subscribe, all that good stuff.
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00:04:19.000making alternate history content like what if the Nazis won the Civil War and what if the South won World War II and then over time we moved over into anthropology and geopolitics and philosophy and history and that stuff and so trying to look at the patterns in history to predict the future how societies work all that stuff the thing I'm most known for is my prediction that America will spiral into an election into a civil war or a revolution within the next election.
00:04:49.000And I know that's something you've been on for years, so I'm sure it'll be of interest to you and your audience.
00:04:54.000We should have a civil war off and see who can say civil war the most.
00:04:57.000I'm kidding. I'm kidding. Yeah, you have a bunch of really great in-depth analysis.
00:05:02.000And I think, you know, for me going on the surface and saying like, here's a news article and I'll give you my opinion.
00:05:07.000You've done like a deep dive in the historical precedent of what, you know, I think you had one really big video where you talked about listless young men.
00:05:14.000So we're going to get into that because we do have a story that just dropped about the predictions of what happens in less than three months.
00:06:04.000It feels like 2020 was a black hole where the things that many of us were saying and asking for went unanswered and only now are starting to be answered.
00:06:14.000For instance, I had said, and it wasn't just my opinion, it was the American conservative, I think it was Pat Buchanan, saying Trump should appoint Tulsi Gabbard for national security or national security advisor or some position.
00:06:25.000And I said, yes, because I'm a big fan.
00:06:29.000We also have been saying endlessly, everybody, that Joe Rogan should be hosting some kind of political debate because we trust him and we know he's going to give us straightforward responses and answers to try and be fair in this breakdown.
00:06:41.000Well, now, Tulsi Gabbard is joining the Trump transition team and will be a part of his administration.
00:06:46.000And the rumors are that Joe Rogan will be hosting Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
00:06:50.000The question I have is, while the media keeps making these claims...
00:06:55.000Joe ain't said nothing. So I can only imagine Joe's like sitting back, you know, he's working out, smoking a cigar, playing pool or something, and then someone hits him up, be like, hey, Joe, are you doing this?
00:07:04.000He's like, bro, I have no idea what you're talking about.
00:07:08.000I don't even know. I can totally hear it.
00:07:10.000I feel like he's going to his book or being like, what did you promise these people?
00:07:14.000I mean, it is interesting that theoretically this could just be social pressure because there was a backlash when he said, you know, I'm not going to have Donald Trump on.
00:07:22.000I think he made a statement basically saying he didn't want to delve into it.
00:07:25.000And there were a lot of Trump people who had a very strong reaction to it.
00:07:31.000I don't think this is going to happen for two reasons.
00:07:35.000The first is that Joe, as Tim said, never endorsed this.
00:07:39.000It's one of those things where this is just the public doing what the public does and making up jabberings that they want to hear.
00:07:47.000The public just says crap and 90 percent of it never happens.
00:07:51.000And secondly, Kamala's team would never put her on a podcast with Joe Rogan because she lacks the verbal ability to look good.
00:07:59.000Kamala – I don't think she's a completely stupid person.
00:08:02.000Her verbal ability is not very good though.
00:08:03.000And so in a podcast like Joe Rogan, which is not – even if Joe tried to be very friendly to her, his framing is not friendly enough to her.
00:08:12.000And it would just make her look very, very bad.
00:08:16.000And they're very risk-averse in their strategy.
00:08:20.000Yeah, it is fascinating, but I think, I love the way you explained it, the jabberings of the public that just say things that never happen.
00:08:29.000The people go on TV, I mean, even me, I'll be on here and I'll be like, you know, here's what I think, and then how much of this stuff actually happens, how exciting is real life?
00:08:37.000But come on, we gotta be hopeful, right?
00:09:42.000Joe can sit there and say to Trump, what about this, that and otherwise?
00:09:44.000And Trump is going to bounce, deflect and answer the questions with no problem.
00:09:48.000Kamala can't do that. How can she—I don't see a path forward if Trump—and this is what Rogan said last time, he doesn't want to help Trump.
00:09:56.000If Trump goes on Rogan, Kamala, it's over.
00:10:00.000Yeah. I think—I mean, I do think that Kamala Harris can't do the— Can't handle two or three hours with Joe Rogan talking.
00:10:09.000She's really bad when she's off teleprompter.
00:10:14.000Significantly bad. I don't see her wanting to sit down.
00:10:18.000It does make sense if she were competent because that would be the forum to attract male voters, which is where she's lagging significantly.
00:10:27.000But the risk of putting her in front of Joe Rogan is far too high.
00:10:32.000I mean, the same Joe Rogan that Michael Malice was sitting across and said that if you mock her, it's ableist because she's a retard.
00:10:43.000I'll go, I'll go. I was just going to say, I think that the challenge is the personality mesh, right?
00:10:49.000And what the person is comfortable doing.
00:10:52.000And we know that Trump is just generally a more comfortable speaker.
00:10:56.000He's comfortable speaking in small groups, one-on-one, at rallies, and she doesn't seem to have that.
00:11:01.000I don't know how many of you, I mean, you probably all watched the Elon Musk appearance on Joe Rogan all those years ago.
00:11:06.000But, you know, Elon Musk is sort of I think?
00:11:29.000He's fine with that. He probably doesn't need any coaxing.
00:11:32.000Even if Joe Rogan wasn't aggressive towards Kamala Harrison anyway, I think she would always be in politician mode and she would never shift into the authentic conversation that Joe Rogan's audience, you know, look for when they're listening to his podcast.
00:11:45.000So, you know, Phil mentioned Kamala needing those male voters.
00:11:57.000I don't know who she is. And she made this comment to me.
00:11:59.000I mean, she was really obsessed with me.
00:12:00.000It was kind of nuts. You should watch it.
00:12:02.000It was really fun. Shout out to Piers Morgan.
00:12:03.000And she made a comment about how we as men are not allowed to define what masculinity is because we criticized the men for Harris or whatever ad.
00:12:13.000That was real cringe. And I'm just like, I think it was, was it Vinny from PBD, who was just like, this is why, I think it was him, he said, this is why men aren't voting Democrat.
00:12:23.000Because it's these angry women who call men racist misogynists who aren't allowed to define masculinity.
00:12:29.000Yo, I gotta tell you, I was, I don't know if you guys saw the Bill Maher clip with Buck Sexton.
00:12:34.000And it's amazing that I'm just – I am clapping and cheering, saying thank you for these leftist pundits.
00:12:41.000This woman's on the show, on Bill Maher's show, and Buck Sexton makes the point that there are men who feel aggrieved, and her response is, well, now you get to – she said something like, now you get to experience the inequities that women have felt.
00:12:55.000And he's like – He's like, this is not this is going to cost you voters.
00:12:59.000Men are saying I'm suffering in responses.
00:13:13.000And I was like, holy crap, Kamala Harris is going to lose every single dude because they keep doing his interviews.
00:13:21.000They keep doubling down on these talking points.
00:13:23.000Well, I mean, that's the general consensus from the left now.
00:13:29.000At least the politically active left, if you're quote-unquote woke, the general consensus is white men are the problem and they must sit in their discomfort.
00:13:40.000These are things that are said in the literature by people like Robin DiAngelo and stuff.
00:13:47.000White men must sit in their discomforts And they're not to be consoled.
00:14:39.000That's why there are men who follow other men.
00:14:41.000There was this really great 4chan post, it's inspiring, it is, and it was this fat dude and he was saying that he went to a gym and he was really self-conscious, he was overweight, but he wanted to make a difference.
00:14:52.000And he sees this super tall, like ripped gym bro walk by and immediately start giving him and pointers and say here's how you do the weights.
00:14:59.000Like, without question, here's how you do the lifts.
00:15:01.000Here's how you do the weights. I want to see this many.
00:15:03.000You can get it, bro. Hey, man, I'll see you tomorrow.
00:15:05.000It's leg day. And then he was like, is this what it feels to have a king?
00:15:08.000I will serve you. This dude was trying to better himself, and this guy came and said, I'm going to help you be better.
00:15:17.000You look up to—there's somebody doing something that you see as honorable, that you want to be that— And when they make this ad where it's like, I'm not scared of women, it's like, yeah, guys don't relate to that.
00:15:45.000And then Roman legion roll right up on horseback and they say, you are needed to lead us.
00:15:51.000War is coming. He jumps on the horse and he goes.
00:15:53.000He leads them to victory and they say, you have served admirably.
00:15:57.000Will you retain these powers and rule?
00:15:59.000And he says, no. And then he goes back to his farm.
00:16:01.000Kamala Harris, 2024. That's a way more effective ad, the story of Cincinnati's.
00:16:05.000Instead of having a bunch of guys be like, I ain't scared of no woman.
00:16:07.000You know, one of the things, like, I think that there are some inherent things about Kamala Harris that turns guys off.
00:16:14.000Like, just the way that she calls her husband Dougie, like, in public, it doesn't seem respectful, and that makes men say, oh, I don't like that.
00:16:23.000If she can call him Dougie, all she wants at home, like, they can have all the pet names they want, but in public, she should call him Doug, And allow him to not seem emasculated.
00:16:35.000Because that's what Dougie sounds like.
00:16:37.000And I guarantee there are people watching this that are like, oh, you're crazy, blah, blah, blah.
00:16:46.000turned off by that kind of stuff in public.
00:16:48.000You can have pet names in private, you can, like, it's perfectly fine, but there are certain ways that you want to be perceived, that men want to be, certain ways men want to be perceived in public, and they want to be respected by their significant other.
00:17:04.000And other people will pick up on things that sound condescending, and something like Dougie sounds condescending.
00:17:11.000Yes, she is the condescending high school principal who you know is not very good at her job.
00:17:15.000Let's pull up this story from the New York Times.
00:17:17.000Black voters drift from Democrats imperiling Harris's bid poll shows.
00:17:23.000Dude, this is the New York Times, okay?
00:17:24.000And so when the media comes out and says, you know, the corporate press—I understand the New York Times.
00:17:31.000I mean, like, the Democrat media, MSNBC. No, it's not true.
00:17:35.000It's not true. It's like, okay, well, I think there's something to that, right?
00:17:38.000Republicans, and there have been model pundits who have said in 2016 Trump's going to win the black vote.
00:17:42.000He didn't. They said in 2020 he's going to win the black vote.
00:17:44.000He didn't. There's a lot of support right now, but— We're going to wait till Election Day, because I think it's fair to say that the record shows that we may see these signals in the press, but they didn't manifest.
00:17:56.000To be fair, over the past several cycles, we have seen a massive drift from Democrats of black voters.
00:18:02.000And what they're reporting now is this is the biggest shift.
00:18:06.000Away from Democrats since, I think, like 1992 or whatever.
00:18:11.000We have the biggest, for the first time since, or actually I think it's going way back, it's maybe like the first time in generations and decades the Republican Party is now larger than the Democratic Party.
00:18:21.000There's a saying. I saw this in the Wall Street Journal several years ago, that if the Democrats cannot win at least 80% of the black community, they will lose.
00:18:33.000And based on the numbers right now, 2024, the Democrats have 78%.
00:18:39.000So theoretically, if those numbers hold into the election, the Democrats can't win by any stretch of the imagination.
00:19:01.000Because as much as we are seeing a lot of young black men saying they're going to be voting for Donald Trump, the question is, are they just saying this?
00:19:08.000Or are these young people just less likely to vote?
00:19:15.000You get young people on acts like Harry Sisson bragging up a big game about voting for Biden and then Kamala.
00:19:20.000But then young people still don't turn out.
00:19:23.000So I'm not entirely convinced, but I'm curious what you guys think.
00:19:27.000I think of my home state Pennsylvania as an example, and people often forget the right and the left are coalitions of a lot of other different subgroups inside of it.
00:19:37.000And so Pennsylvania doesn't have that many genuinely like woke people.
00:19:41.000exist but the people in California or New York City who are genuinely really for very progressive social issues.
00:19:50.000We found from studies there are only between 10 to 15 percent of America's population.
00:19:57.000And what happens is if the black vote tilts slightly conservative – and I don't know if it's going to happen this election, but I've noticed a very seismic shift, especially for young black men in their culture towards the right.
00:20:12.000You can see it with all the red pill influencers like Myron Gaines, Andrew Tate, like Lil Pump's Not Black.
00:20:18.000But there's this huge move of conservative rappers.
00:20:21.000And I have a weird interest in pop culture.
00:20:24.000This is one of the things people don't know about me.
00:20:26.000But I was watching this video of this guy who's a Korean – he makes Korean jewelry for rappers and then one of the Island Boys.
00:20:34.000And they were debating to their—and they were both Republicans.
00:20:36.000And I thought this would not happen 10 years ago.
00:20:39.000And so the point I'm trying to summarize here is that— The left actually doesn't give that much to most black men.
00:20:48.000They give it to the black ruling class, and I can explain that point further, and then the black ruling class is able to co-opt the entire population.
00:20:56.000But if you got even a relative portion of black young men, you would tilt every single state in the Rust Belt hard red because you look at Pennsylvania, you look at Ohio, you look at Michigan.
00:21:07.000These are states where the white unions are already going, already went from blue to red.
00:21:12.000If you got a certain part of the black population, every single state in the Rust Belt would be as red as Texas or South Carolina.
00:21:21.000I think it's true. One of the things that gets pointed out a lot this election cycle is that Trump is down among white voters than he was in 2016 and 2020.
00:21:30.000And so there is obviously a component to this election in particular where courting racial groups is going to be part of it.
00:21:37.000true of most elections. Trump just has, and this is the Republicans in general now, has the opportunity to continue to gain among, let's say, black men or the black community at large, among Hispanic voters, and we're seeing these numbers play out, as well as white voters, and really secure a victory. This is not true of the DNC, and it's not true of Kamala Harris, in part because of the way they treat different racial groups.
00:22:01.000I think they're ultimately a very racially motivated party, but not in a way that makes others feel empowered, and I think that they would never court the white vote the same way that Republicans are more comfortable doing.
00:22:12.000And so they are dependent on smaller segments of the population, but they don't treat them with respect.
00:22:17.000And that's, I think, what you're seeing with the fallout of Of black voters, especially the difference between the way black men vote and black women vote, they are motivated by different things.
00:22:27.000And ultimately, Kamala Harris maybe can appeal to black women, but she is not able to appeal to black men.
00:22:33.000And so we're getting this large scale scolding, which I don't think will work either, but they have no ability to pivot.
00:22:39.000And to your point, I think some of that has to do with who's staffed.
00:23:15.000Do you think that it's just a little bit?
00:23:18.000Because we're right-leaning people mostly around here.
00:23:21.000Do you think that it's just the right-leaning people that are kind of like, ooh, we can see how clearly bad that is?
00:23:25.000Or do you think that normal people that are politically unaffiliated, or do you think they're like, this actually turns me off?
00:23:32.000I was saying that there's a lot of young men, particularly black men, who are saying they're voting for Trump simply because it is cringe to say you're voting for Kamala Harris.
00:23:41.000Yes. It's not even about whether you actually want to vote for Donald Trump or not.
00:23:44.000It's that if you walk up to your group of guy friends and you're like 20-something and you go, yo, I just voted for Kamala, they're going to bust out laughing and be like, what?
00:23:52.000That's just like the weirdest thing to say.
00:23:54.000Saying Trump is basically like saying like, I'm on the outside, I'm punk rock basically.
00:23:58.000It's kind of funny because they don't accept that it is, but when all the major corporations and everyone lines up against them, you're like, yeah, I'm the bad guy, I'm the rebel.
00:24:24.000What year was the last year cars had carburetors?
00:24:27.000I get it. Like, farm equipment I think still does.
00:24:30.000When I worked at O'Hare, they have tugs.
00:24:32.000Tugs have carburetors. But do guys talk about fixing carburetors?
00:24:37.000No. It's like someone Google searched how to be manly from the 1930s or from the 50s, and they were like, let's just roll with that.
00:24:48.000Yeah. An important thing to keep in mind, and we had a recent...
00:24:51.000There was a study that said that the average Republican has three times as accurate a psychological assessment as the average Democrat than vice versa.
00:25:03.000And so in this study, when they asked Republicans and Democrats to predict the positions the other party had, the right had an assessment of the left's predictions three times as accurate as vice versa.
00:25:17.000And you can discount a single study, but we found this consistently where – and this is dozens of studies – the right is able to understand how the left thinks and not vice versa.
00:25:28.000And the way I imagine it with the left psychology – and I've made a bunch of videos about the psychology and anthropology behind the right and the left – is you should see the psychology of the people involved as closed emotional circuits where their social networks reward them for being completely emotional and hysterical.
00:25:47.000And if you're not openly hysterical at minor things, you're a bad person.
00:25:51.000So there are social networks that make them exceedingly emotional, but they also have these closed logical loops where they're right by definition.
00:25:58.000So there's no actual interfacing with the world.
00:26:01.000And so when people talk about the elite's I think that's true to a certain degree.
00:26:27.000They said back in the day, or back in the days and thousands of years ago, a dynasty in decline is ruled by harem girls, eunuchs, and bureaucrats.
00:26:35.000We are at the harem girl, eunuch, and bureaucrat phase.
00:27:13.000These people have no capability to understand what other people are thinking.
00:27:16.000And we see that's very indicative of the left.
00:27:18.000There's a poll, a survey that I like to cite where it shows moderate voters in the United States get two-thirds of their news from the left and one-third from the right.
00:27:28.000Conservatives get two-thirds from the right, one-third from the left.
00:27:30.000And the liberal and left get 95% from the left.
00:27:34.000Yep. And my response was, right. When she was out in the polls, she ducked the media and avoided the podcast.
00:27:59.000Donald Trump was down in the polls, so he did a bunch of press, even adversarial.
00:28:03.000He went on various corporate press outlets, much to the chagrin of many of supporters saying, you know, they're going to lie about you.
00:28:25.000Now, I can say that because I know that this audience here watching the show is well aware of what Trump has done and what Kamala is now doing with the strategy there is.
00:28:33.000But Wajahat, presumably like many of these liberal leftists, consume only MSNBC, CNN, and they're completely unaware of the world around them.
00:28:42.000They live in a bubble. I mean, I think that's something that it would be nice if you could convince your liberal friends of.
00:30:13.000You can only keep the intensity at a 10 for so long before people start to say, okay, we can't actually respect these opinions because they're just histrionic.
00:30:27.000Really. And one of the great innovations that the DNC has not embraced is bringing on a new creative campaign strategist.
00:30:36.000Because right now all of them run the same campaign, and this is true in pretty much every state at every level, which is...
00:30:44.000Republicans are so evil that if you let them anywhere near legislation, they will destroy your lives.
00:30:49.000And this is true of the state-level Republicans, of any Republican governors.
00:30:53.000Any Democratic strategist is running the same campaign right now, which is why, since Trump is a known quantity, as soon as they announced J.D. Vance was the candidate, they were suddenly like, oh, someone new to fearmonger about.
00:31:05.000I just think that the American public is fear-exhausted, and especially in the wake of things like, you know, serious hurricanes that leave people devastated.
00:31:14.000This appeal to fear doesn't work, and so they're not going to get the same compliance they're used to.
00:31:19.000Let's jump to this from Polymarket, ladies and gentlemen.
00:32:02.000I think after Kamala Harris has done this string of press trying to improve her numbers because she was sinking, all it did was make it substantially worse.
00:32:10.000If she goes on Joe Rogan, it's the apocalypse.
00:32:13.000I don't see how she turns things around.
00:32:15.000She went on with Charlemagne, the God, and I don't think it's going to do anything for her.
00:33:05.000That's what Trump's been saying. Everyone's got to go vote.
00:33:08.000You've got to bring your friends and family to tell them, hey, you all got to go vote.
00:33:11.000You've got to register to vote. Make sure because a deadline is coming up for a lot of places.
00:33:14.000Many places already passed. You've got to go vote.
00:33:16.000And then Trump's going to win if everybody goes vote.
00:33:18.000But what do you think? Do you think these betting markets are good or what?
00:33:22.000Or as someone super chatted, are the betting markets just the jabberings of the public that won't come true?
00:33:27.000I publicly said yesterday that I think Trump's going to win.
00:33:30.000I said that in my YouTube community notes.
00:33:32.000I stand by that. And I say these things so that you know I'm not a charlatan because only by being in a place where you can publicly lose do you know if you're just making stuff up.
00:34:11.000Yeah. I think that these markets are important to look at because it's good to have the data.
00:34:19.000But right now, I'm actually very skeptical of all polling.
00:34:23.000And again, in part, it's because part of the country just got knocked out by this hurricane.
00:34:27.000I mean, how are you polling people in North Carolina in the red counties where they don't have internet right now?
00:34:34.000I think that we've known for a little while, I think it was something one of the major new polls put out, maybe this time, Sienna, that there are like 4% of voters that respond to polls right now say they're undecided.
00:34:44.000And we know of those, actually it's more like 2% are truly, truly undecided.
00:34:49.000The other two probably have an intention one way or the other.
00:34:53.000I think one of the things that Kamala...
00:34:56.000Is never going to be able to overcome and definitely not now this late in the game with so many things to your point working in Trump's favor is that she is up against the personality of a future American folk hero.
00:35:10.000Even if you don't like Trump, he has a very distinct personality.
00:35:14.000He's developed a very unique political movement.
00:35:17.000And they can't just sort of drop Democrats into the same tired campaign and produce someone who becomes someone people are motivated to turn out for.
00:35:27.000I mean, even if they put her on every cooking show in America and she made her collard greens, it's not enough time to make her endearing.
00:35:34.000And if she was endearing, they would have done it by now.
00:35:37.000So they have this sort of paper candidate with a bad platform.
00:35:40.000That, you know, as she releases specifics, and I don't know if we're going to talk about the marijuana conversation today, but it makes people more irritated with her, whereas Trump gives specific, the media gets mad, but the American people listen.
00:35:52.000And to me, I mean, you'll see this reflected in the opinion polls or in betting market odds where Trump is just more likable and there's no way she could overcome that.
00:36:03.000The criticism right now is that Kamala's pitch to black men is free money and free drugs.
00:36:10.000I mean, that is essentially the attempt, but it's just so disheartening that politicians on the left are blatantly trying to purchase votes.
00:37:03.000Our government is not designed to be a service provider.
00:37:09.000It's not supposed to be giving people money.
00:37:12.000It's not supposed to be purchasing votes.
00:37:16.000The point of government is to protect private property rights, to give you courts for redress of grievances, and to protect the border.
00:37:23.000And it's failed at protecting the border.
00:37:25.000It's questionable whether or not the courts are reliable anymore.
00:37:29.000And it definitely doesn't protect private property when it's expropriating property so that way it can redistribute it.
00:37:34.000So the entire government has failed on every level.
00:37:38.000The federal government has failed on every level.
00:37:40.000And the fact that the American people allow it to continue to do this and don't vote for significant change.
00:37:47.000Kamala's out here saying, we're ready for change.
00:37:50.000I just heard her talking about, one of her stump speeches, talking about, we're ready for a change.
00:37:55.000We're ready for a change. It's like... You're coming from Joe Biden's administration.
00:37:59.000There is no change if you get into office.
00:38:02.000And it's just so ridiculous that there is a large enough portion of the American people that are believing this.
00:38:12.000It's frustrating that that is the case, I suppose, is where I'm leading.
00:38:16.000It's frustrating that there are people that think this is an acceptable state of affairs.
00:38:21.000I wonder how many people do feel like it's an acceptable state of affairs.
00:38:26.000I think that there are a portion of voters...
00:38:28.00042%. The thing is, there are a portion of American voters, and this is true for both parties, I'm not trying to just be anti-left here, but who will vote in compliance with the party no matter what.
00:38:38.000So she could say anything, but if she is endorsed by the Democrats, they're going to vote for her.
00:39:38.000Actually, after her history as a prosecutor, she's...
00:39:41.000She doesn't think you should be arrested for marijuana possession.
00:39:45.000Actually, she is open to all kinds of things and she likes fracking.
00:39:48.000I mean, she wasn't even the same person that she was in July when she announced this candidacy, let alone who she was when she ran on her own in 2020.
00:39:57.000And I think that there is a certain portion of Americans that know that.
00:40:00.000And even though they may ultimately cast a Democratic ticket, it's not because they love Kamala.
00:40:04.000It's because they feel loyal to the party.
00:40:06.000I'm going to throw out a strange combination, Aristotle and game theory.
00:40:10.000So I can explain why both of those vote for those demographics, and it's inside their self-interest if you look at those two things.
00:40:17.000In pre-modern political philosophy, they said that society is an ecosystem of basically different kinds of animals that have different interests.
00:40:26.000So there's the lion on top, there's the bear, whatever.
00:40:29.000It's symbolic. They didn't actually think...
00:40:34.000I think it's important because we view the world as homogenous and the reality is there's a lot of different subgroups.
00:40:40.000And so for game theory studies as an example, consistently you can move 60% of the population by changing the consensus.
00:40:48.000So in multiple game theory studies… If you can change what the consensus people believe, you'll jump from 20% support to 80% support.
00:40:56.000Furthermore, there's a 20% demographic that always try to do good and are selfless, and there's a 20% that are always parasitic no matter what in game theory studies.
00:41:07.000So as a society, its duty is to basically bully the parasitic 20% and then get the 60% to be part of a consensus for the 20% who are selfless.
00:41:17.000That's part of it. Second thing is that Philabonte really got onto this point well of it's the abdication of responsibility for Kamala's side of things.
00:41:30.000So their entire strategy is divesting of the national interest for private interest.
00:41:36.000And this is something Aristotle talked about, where all of Aristotle's political philosophy was based off how do you establish the best incentives for people to not predate from the system.
00:41:46.000And so... What you're looking at here with Kamala's voters is you as an individual will get stuff at the expense of society.
00:41:57.000And this is largely people who don't conceptualize society at all.
00:42:00.000they're not thinking to themselves, if we do this, everything's going to fall apart because that's not in their mental framework.
00:42:08.000And this is why the right and the left have different concepts of money, where the right sees money as something that's actively generated, so if you lower taxes, more money's going to be generated.
00:42:17.000The left doesn't mentally process that and so they just see the money as a pie to divide, so there's a lot of money to the divide and they have no concept – the left has no concept of things as living or as group phenomena.
00:42:31.000And so they'll just say, oh – they also can't make a distinction between individual and group, so for example, if you let one trans person into a women's bathroom, there would be no bad consequences and they choose not to differentiate between that and this is a social standard that will happen for decades because it's a very different matter between let's say when you give money to one friend in distress to your entire society gives all your money to people in distress.
00:42:57.000Right. There's a funny meme where it says, one way to know if you're dealing with someone of low intelligence is to say something that is true, such as, on average, Asians are shorter than Europeans.
00:43:10.000And if they respond with something like, not all Asians, you know you're dealing with a person who can't think in abstract.
00:43:25.000It's a weird mental tier the left exists in where you're so intelligent you argue yourself back into stupidity.
00:43:31.000Because if you're a tribal people in the Amazon, you just think you leave meat out for the ancestor gods, and the ancestor gods respect you.
00:43:40.000That's a very simplistic worldview, but it works for you.
00:43:44.000There's lots of ancestor gods, but we're not going to get into that.
00:43:47.000And so for the left, they're taking from all these advanced authors like Schopenhauer and Hegel, people who are very intelligent Marx, and then they drive it into the stupidest possible conclusion because they think, if I can make an argument, that makes it the correct argument.
00:44:04.000And all of their logic is based upon everyone being the same, everyone being equal, and And then there are no consequences for actions.
00:44:13.000Michael Malice said that he defines the new right simply by asking one question.
00:44:19.000Do you believe that some people are better than others?
00:44:24.000I don't like Malice's distinction of the right because I think he was looking at it in the 2010s, and I think the ecosystem—I need to make a video about this.
00:44:33.000I was thinking when I was in the hotel here, I need to make a video on the factions of the new right because I think those factions are going to end up dominating national politics in history.
00:44:44.000Random schizos on Twitter now will end up becoming the dominant ideology in 20 to 30 years.
00:44:50.000Wait, wait. Like lefty weirdos on X, you're saying?
00:44:54.000So the problem now is that there's no ideology that makes sense of the world today, which is why we're a civilization that's killing itself.
00:45:02.000And it should be... Another great question.
00:45:04.000Do you think... Real quick, do you mean that there's no dominant ideology?
00:45:07.000So the dominant ideology is leftism, but they're in absence of any ideology.
00:45:12.000They don't believe in anything. They just believe in stopping racism.
00:45:33.000Yes. Because in their system, everyone's equal, so no one can rise to leadership and give them direction.
00:45:38.000And so they end up following each other with no goal and no pursuit.
00:45:43.000And so when you look at what the left pursues, it seemingly makes no sense.
00:45:48.000They criticize the military-industrial complex but support the war in Ukraine.
00:45:52.000Yes. These things are paradoxical, but Hassan himself on his show in within the span of three minutes did exactly that.
00:45:58.000Yes. If you want to look at thinkers like—there's a lot of thinkers on the right, and the issue with the right is that there's too little unity.
00:46:08.000I spent—my life at this point is a lot of conservative politics, and I talk to people who are really on the Christian side of things, who are more Nietzscheans, who are libertarians.
00:46:20.000You have foreign countries who have different nationalists.
00:46:22.000You have people who are boomer cons, Reagan cons, people who are basically Nazis, people who, I don't know, worship Odin.
00:46:31.000So you have like 20 factions on the right.
00:46:33.000There's no unifying ideology, and they can only agree with what they dislike under the left.
00:46:39.000And so if you have a vacuum in both the right and the left, it means it's going to be filled.
00:46:43.000And there are two ecosystems I find, because I've lived a strange life and I've looked into a lot of different industries, and most industries in America are high school, where it's done based off buddies, based off who you went to school with, who seems cool.
00:47:15.000I've been having some conversations with some other business leaders, and I'll keep it semi-private, but there's a management crisis.
00:47:23.000I've been experiencing this, and having spoken with some other managers at other companies from small to medium, they keep saying the same thing.
00:47:30.000We hear about Gen Z and millennials quiet quitting.
00:48:26.000Yes. The right tends to be, just like you said, the right doesn't want to be in positions of political power because they look to do things in the real world that do benefit themselves, but also it's something that they find interesting or they find themselves good at or whatever, whereas people on the left, they can organize and they're looking for a way to access power so they can...
00:48:51.000Essentially, I feel like it should make the world align with the way that they emotionally feel that it should be.
00:48:57.000One of the facts that I never see people discuss on this topic, but I think it's fundamentally...
00:49:03.000This might be one of the most important facts I wish I could shove into the discourse, is that the left has controlled institutions at least since World War I or World War II. And so conservatives will often be like, oh...
00:49:57.000The thing that they really hate about Trump is that he called their bluff because they were able to call a bluff—and this is what they mean by democracy.
00:50:05.000Democracy is the series of managerial institutions which they use to enact their will through unelected officials.
00:50:13.000And so— Trump called their bluff on democracy, and they hate him so much because Trump is forcing them to come to terms with that they were the elite because they had established this very advanced psychological manipulation of the population.
00:50:28.000And this sounds schizo, but I can explain it.
00:50:30.000It's all very easy to understand if you'd like.
00:50:32.000That goes back decades, and the right has been so browbeaten by this where it's been generations of conservatives— I think the unfortunate reality is a degree of cowardice.
00:50:56.000I know people will be offended by that, but let me say two things on this.
00:50:59.000Someone asked me when I was in Newtown.
00:51:02.000They said, I work in an industry, and it's very woke, and I don't know what to do.
00:51:05.000Should I speak out? And I said, here's the hard reality.
00:51:07.000If you're the first to speak out, you are in the trenches with a bunch of people and they're all terrified to look to see what's going on above.
00:51:16.000And if you stick your head out because someone's got to do it, you're going to get hurt, right?
00:51:21.000The problem is if nobody does, then you're all trapped forever.
00:51:24.000The pioneers who came to North America...
00:52:05.000They like to throw shade my way and say, easy for you to say, Tim, you're on this big show, you've got a company.
00:52:09.000I worked for Vice and Disney, and I spoke up, and I lost those connections, and I lost those contracts, and I started from scratch to start over.
00:52:16.000I stuck my head out and had to start rebuilding and got to this point.
00:52:22.000I don't think it's going to be the same for everybody.
00:52:24.000Some people might have it harder, but so long as everybody on the right just simply says, I'm going to stay hidden and not say anything, then the left will continue to dominate everything.
00:52:32.000The left dominated the 20th century because pre-internet, every single thing was a bureaucracy.
00:52:38.000The media was a bureaucracy, the government, the military, corporate America, religion.
00:52:44.000And the left is the religion of the bureaucracy because in the leftist worldview, the bureaucracy is God, which can do anything.
00:52:52.000And so we only realized how much power the left had once the internet showed up.
00:52:57.000Because the internet gave us a degree of separation.
00:52:59.000And the reason the right is starting to build up its own culture is that we've moved away from the—because in 1985, probably 100 people controlled almost all of the information flow in the West.
00:53:10.000Academia, the media, a variety of things.
00:53:15.000And as of now, we could use AI and the internet to completely automate out the managerial class.
00:53:23.000And Balaji, I think, did a great—Balaji's done a great job thinking about this, of going through—he says the 19th century, God was the social fabric of society.
00:53:37.000And I think— The network is, and the network is to our era what the bureaucracy was to the 20th century, and so you're seeing the new right emerge as this phenomena online due to that.
00:53:52.000Let's jump to this story. We have this from Just Security, the war game, documentary, and simulating a worse January 6th.
00:53:59.000Just say it! Just Security, civil war.
00:54:03.000The scenario is simply terrifying and sadly all too plausible, if not highly likely.
00:54:08.000It's January 6, 2025, a date now less than three months away. A major party presidential candidate has responded to his opponent's victory with false allegations of widespread election fraud. The losing candidate's supporters, joined by militias and some members of the National Guard and active-duty U.S. military, are moved to violence by disinformation. An American general rises against the commander-in-chief and rallies other troops to join. The attackers breach the U.S.
00:54:32.000capital and interrupt the counting electoral votes.
00:54:34.000They seize the Arizona state Capitol and take half its state senators hostage, amass threatening crowds in other state capitals, and take over a major military base.
00:54:42.000A high-level simulation of White House management of the scenario is what producer Jesse Moss and co-director Tony Gerber chronicle in their documentary film War Game, now streaming and in theaters.
00:54:53.000Overall, War Game is impressive, but the film also has confusing elements and leaves key questions unanswered.
00:55:00.000This is clearly written from the perspective of the managerial, bureaucratic, uniparty state, whatever you want to call it.
00:55:06.000But I'm curious, Rudyard, if you see anything plausible in this assessment of what's going to happen on January 6, 2025.
00:55:15.000Every single thing the left says is projection, and that's a principle where I can explain why I came to it.
00:55:21.000It's something James Lindsay says as well.
00:55:22.000So you're saying it's—I don't want to say you're saying, but is the implication that it is more likely that the left— I think my personal guess is I don't think we will get out of this election without blood because neither side can afford to have the other side to lose.
00:55:45.000And so I think both sides will dispute the election no matter what.
00:55:49.000And I think if the right wins, the left will dispute it.
00:55:51.000And what they're trying to say here is partly signaling to their own followers.
00:55:55.000And it's also to just larp the idea in their head.
00:56:00.000Yeah. I think they would not be opposed to that sort of thing if Trump won.
00:56:06.000Well, I'll give you an example. It was, oh man, what was the name of that Alaskan senator?
00:56:11.000He died and then they made a foundation after him.
00:56:14.000Do you remember what I'm talking about? Nick Begovich?
00:57:01.000And then they ended up posting after January 6th that they believe it was the right tactic, but the wrong people.
00:57:07.000Yes. You guys should source check me on this, but there was a leftist think tank which basically made war room projections of the left launching a coup with the right one.
00:57:16.000Yeah. And it's, I mean, what I say is that God's given us enough warning shots at this point.
00:57:24.000If this crisis hits and you're not prepared for it, you've been warned.
00:57:28.000So you were saying, I don't know if you said this on the show before the show, that whenever a great dynasty is about to fall, there's a storm.
00:57:52.000The things I'm talking about, these are things we've always known about.
00:57:54.000And in Chinese political philosophy going back to 1000 BC, they talk about the mandate of heaven and they say that – When a dynasty falls, the earth shows its displeasure where there's famine, there's increase in prices, there's peasant rebellions, there's foreign wars, and then there's great storms as nature throws horrifying cataclysms like tornadoes or hurricanes and floods and droughts at the earth to show its displeasure.
00:58:20.000And these things are correlations where...
00:58:25.000If your society is falling apart, you're going to have all those sorts of things because all these things are correlated together, whether external crises or local political crises or famines or that stuff.
00:58:40.000So these hurricanes that just slammed into the southeast, you're saying God is angry with the current dynasty of the United States and it's about to fall?
00:58:50.000I did not say that. But is there any kind of like...
00:58:57.000I don't know, supernatural explanation in these philosophical beliefs of a storm?
00:59:01.000So, a major difference between how the ancients saw the world and the recent world that no one looks at is what Charles Taylor called the buffered personality.
00:59:11.000And so people in the ancient world thought that our minds are basically living ecosystems.
00:59:15.000And so their purpose for religion was to fill your mind with good bacteria to fight against negative stuff.
00:59:21.000And so in the Middle Ages, they called the church basically knights against demonic warfare.
00:59:28.000So they saw the church as basically a military force to fight Europe off from demonic possession.
00:59:35.000And so I'm going through all of that to explain that back then, their concept of the world was that things were sympathetically, mystically connected.
00:59:42.000And so... And they would say that the Earth is connected to the sky, which is connected to the weather, which is connected to astrological signs, and their idea would be that the collapse of our government would be part of this broader – like – This broader cosmic shift.
01:00:05.000And so we would be downstream of the sorts of things that would cause these shifts in weather rather than vice versa.
01:00:12.000It's kind of like, and I don't know if that's true, it wouldn't surprise me to a certain degree because the science over the last couple decades...
01:00:19.000has consistently found the world's vastly more interconnected than we believe.
01:00:23.000It's weird stuff like you can correlate— there's too many bizarre correlations we've found in science with like a certain kind of genetics, is with a certain kind of environment, or string theory with particles jumping across the world.
01:00:35.000We know the world's connected in a myriad of ridiculous ways, and that there's these— I mean, in the years 1348, in the years 1645, every major country in the world was fighting both a civil war and an external war at the same time.
01:00:50.000And so the world often, or Socrates, Lao Tzu, Buddha, and Confucius all lived at the exact same time.
01:00:58.000So there are these weird hollow similarities you find over history.
01:01:01.000An interesting book called by Victor Lieberman is how you can correlate political development in Southeast Asia in West Europe at the exact same time.
01:01:09.000So there's a whole sub-industry of finding this stuff.
01:01:12.000And so the argument that if you dropped a philosopher from a thousand years ago, he would say that – The reason you would have big storms, the collapse of a dynasty, this is part of God's plan, is like, there's these cosmic changes in the universe that you are part of this bigger correlation.
01:01:28.000I think so, to a certain degree, but...
01:01:31.000So I wanted to ask you, with all the stuff that you've studied, you've made a couple videos about...
01:02:27.000Because, I mean, obviously there were huge assassinations, numbers of assassinations in Mexico.
01:02:31.000Are we counting international political deaths?
01:02:33.000So, let me tell you what I'm thinking here.
01:02:35.000And keep in mind, I've been reading up on the French Revolution lately, where the last two books I've read were on the French Revolution.
01:02:43.000And people never think these historic crises are going to hit until they do.
01:02:48.000And it's one of those things, when it rains, it pours.
01:02:52.000And you have really good sound insulation.
01:02:55.000And... So World War I, everyone—one of the things I like to say is the world is inherently incredibly unreasonable, and expecting to be reasonable is in fact unreasonable.
01:03:06.000And you look over history, political tensions build up, build up, build up, war, and then a bunch of people die.
01:03:28.000And the four conflicts I've compared it to in the past are the French Revolution, the English Civil War, the American Civil War, and the fall of the Roman Republic.
01:03:41.000So that's the sort of event I'm talking on the scale.
01:03:43.000And I've drawn four connections between those, so I look for proxies between them.
01:03:48.000I had a conversation with Eric Prince and I asked him, with all of his experience in these foreign countries that have been in conflict, crisis or collapse, does he see a parallel here in the United States, something that we should be worried about?
01:04:02.000And his response was, well, I can tell you one thing.
01:04:04.000Every guy that he knows who's been in a country that has suffered some kind of collapse— It happens overnight.
01:04:11.000Yeah. One day the lights are on, you're watching TV, you go to bed, you wake up, there's no electricity, there's no internet, communications are severed, no one has any idea what's going on, and then conflict.
01:04:24.000And I think people need to understand that...
01:04:27.000There is a fine line between order and chaos.
01:04:30.000If you woke up one day and your TV couldn't turn on, and your phone didn't work, and you had no idea what was happening, without your phone, without the network, you can't use credit cards.
01:04:41.000You go to a cafe when the internet's down, sorry, we can't take your credit cards, do you have cash?
01:04:45.000So you go to the grocery store and you're like, I need to get some food, and they're like, sorry, do you have cash?
01:04:49.000It's like, I need to go to an ATM. Sorry, ATM's down.
01:04:52.000Network's not working. The chaos that will erupt in a matter of days But it would probably happen instantly because opportunists would take advantage.
01:04:59.000Yes. Leading a formation of neighborhood watches from local men getting together and be like, we've got to figure out what's going on because we have no idea.
01:05:12.000Internet shuts down. Communications are off.
01:05:14.000People walk out of their suburban sprawl homes and they're looking around and they're like, they see their neighbor Bill and say, hey Bill, is your internet down?
01:06:35.000The APC pulls up and there's some military-looking guys, walks over, shakes a guy's hand and says, hey, my name's Lieutenant such-and-such, and communications are down.
01:06:43.000We don't know what's going on. There's some conflict happening up the road, but we're here to secure everything.
01:06:49.000We're National Guard. All of a sudden, down the street, another APC pulls up.
01:06:53.000These guys jump out, train their weapons on the other group of guys in the APC, shooting starts.
01:06:58.000What I've consistently found with all of these historic conflicts, and it's funny to see how often history repeats, and that's one of the themes of my show, but it goes to a deeper degree than anyone thinks, where...
01:07:10.000For the English Civil War as an example, there was a commonly known thing that it – the average Englishman was too weak to fight since it had been over a century since England had had a major war.
01:07:20.000French Revolution, American Revolution, Russian Civil War, most people are completely inactive and then small groups of radicals normally – Between something like 1% to 3% of the population dominate the discourse.
01:07:33.000With the French Revolution, the Jacobins, who became the ruling military caste of France, they were a social club originally.
01:07:40.000They were a social club to push for social justice.
01:07:43.000They would fund women's charities and stuff.
01:09:11.000We got in a car and drove to Heliopolis and went to the mall where everybody was going about their days if nothing was happening.
01:09:17.000So with that in mind, people seem to think that a war starting means literally you're in your home and bolts are flying.
01:09:24.000But explain to me what you think is going to happen in the next couple of months.
01:09:28.000So... I've studied dozens of different historic crises, and the reason I think we're going to have a war is partly intuitive.
01:09:36.000You just look outside. But it's also I've studied almost every single model of the science of history, where people have been trying to develop models to predict history, and about five different historic models, most of them dating to the 20th century, say that in the 2020s, America would have a civil war.
01:10:23.000historic crises happening. Those are average wages, income inequality, and competition for elite jobs. Those three variables were able to predict the fall of the Roman Republic, the English Civil War, the Black Death, the French Wars of Religion, the French Revolution, the Russian Revolution, and so many more.
01:10:40.000And these crises happen every 250 years like clockwork. The last real version in the Western world was the French Revolution. Before then, the Wars of Religion in the mid-1600s that killed a third of Europe's population. Before then, the Black Death in the 1300s which killed half of Europe's population.
01:10:59.000So these are patterns that we have computer models to study.
01:11:10.000So I have a tier list of multiple variables.
01:11:12.000My top one was a financial crisis, and that was going back years.
01:11:16.000I figured out a lot of this stuff in 2020.
01:11:19.000And financial crisis was my top bet because you look at the English Civil War, the French Revolution, and the...
01:11:27.000France's previous crises in the 13 and the 1600s, et cetera.
01:11:31.000And it's normally caused by a budget issue because leading up to these crises, one of the great books in this topic, The Great Wave by David Hackett Fisher, he found these crises because he was studying the history of inflation and he found you could correlate the history of inflation with these crises because inflation is a parallel for the government instability.
01:11:52.000So the government's inflating its currency when it's feeling desperate.
01:11:55.000So long periods of inflation which crest and the top predictors for these crises from the inflation analysis are increase in real estate prices, real estate and food prices, oil prices.
01:12:08.000And this was stuff I saw in 2020 and I was thinking in 2020, oh, it's great that our real estate's not that bad.
01:12:13.000It's great that our food prices aren't that bad.
01:12:16.000And then... Now food and I gotta tell you real estate is insane right now. I know.
01:12:20.000There was a house nearby that was like $250 and now it's $500 and it's been two years.
01:12:25.000And this isn't a super like, this isn't like Miami or Los Angeles.
01:12:29.000We're in West Virginia. Yeah, exactly.
01:12:31.000So do you believe that we will see a financial crisis then in the next few months? Maybe not the next few months. It wouldn't surprise me next few months, I think.
01:12:40.000Because... So I want to try and get to this. You're saying that within the next three months or by till April, sorry, it's not three months, five or six.
01:12:48.000Political crisis. That's what I'm betting on. Let me tell you what I'm thinking. So for these crises, the number one thing is the budget issue. I don't think we're going to face the budget issue. It's still my number two probability. So historically, the budget issue is the top one because for all of these crises, the thing that instigated it was the budget crisis where neither side was willing to let the other side have a concession.
01:13:11.000I'm going to use the English Civil War and the French Revolution as an example.
01:13:16.000In the English Civil War, England was divided between the supporters of the king and the parliament.
01:13:21.000In all of these underlie certain class and ethnic and regional interests.
01:13:25.000For us, I say the right versus left is college-educated versus non-college-educated.
01:13:30.000And so English Civil War, it was the nobility and the merchants. And so what happened was that they had a huge budget. They couldn't pay their bills at all.
01:13:41.000And then the royalists tried to get the parliamentarians to give a concession for a foreign war and then the parliamentarians said no.
01:13:49.000The king tried to shut down the parliament. French Revolution is almost the exact same thing.
01:13:53.000The king tried to get the parliament to give a budget consensus. The parliament said no, start of the war. So that was my top predictor where something – an example of that for us would be – The – a great example.
01:14:07.000So for my whole stack of probabilities, my top probability now is election dispute.
01:14:19.000Trump assassination. I'd move Trump assassination to number three now, and then black swan or randomized event.
01:14:26.000A black swan would be, let's say, there's a major riot in Los Angeles that the police don't respond to, and then that becomes a political issue, like what you saw in the UK. So we're looking at a political crisis.
01:14:39.000Political crisis. The French Revolution is a great example of this because I've been reading up on the topic.
01:14:45.000The Tocqueville's book on it is amazing.
01:14:46.000You guys should read it. But the thing I didn't know at the French Revolution until really recently is that it's a multi-year process.
01:14:52.000So what happened is that you had a political dispute between...
01:14:56.000the parliament and the king. The king shut down the parliament. The parliament says, no, we're not going to do that.
01:15:03.000Then there's this quiet coup. And the crazy thing with the French Revolution is there's no real violent point that happens.
01:15:09.000What just happens is the army mutinies. The army says, no, king, you're going to listen to the parliament.
01:15:14.000And then the peasants start burning down the Lord's land.
01:15:17.000But it was this gradual, let's say, three-year process where the monarch lost power. France then became a parliamentary democracy where only the rich could vote, slightly in the right and the left.
01:15:33.000Then it became the Jacobins, who are the radical leftists, who are a social club, took over.
01:15:39.000But real quick, it was a series of revolutions, wasn't it?
01:15:42.000Oh, yes. And so that's what I think it would be where my best scenario is that both sides— I think?
01:16:06.000most political pundits, most, a lot of big political pundits have openly pushed for violence at this point and... So even on the right? I think, so like the Nick Fuentes types, there are definitely people who would not be against it.
01:16:23.000On the left, we have seen extremist rhetoric bubbling up to the highest levels.
01:16:27.000We have seen the excusing of extreme violence, such as at the Chaz Chop, there were a couple teenagers that were shot.
01:16:34.000There was another guy who was shot and killed.
01:16:35.000In Provo, Utah, BLM ran up to a car and just shot a guy for no reason.
01:16:39.000Then when you look at what the quote-unquote right has...
01:16:43.000There's no prominent right-winger advocating for violence or calling for the use of violence or force.
01:16:48.000At most, Trump has—he came out and said the death penalty for illegal—I'm sorry, death penalty for migrants who kill Americans or cops.
01:16:56.000We do have the lower-tier, more fringe elements of the right or anti-left who are absolutely calling for violence, but there's not the leadership faction calling for it.
01:17:07.000Yeah. I understand you're not calling for violence, and I hate to be this blunt, but you did put your capital in Harpers Ferry for a reason.
01:17:39.000And during the Civil War, it was captured over and over again because it was impossible to defend.
01:17:43.000Yeah. You could attack it, seize it, and then you couldn't defend it, so the south and the north went back and forth.
01:17:48.000It is a terrible place to set up any kind of operation.
01:17:51.000Yes, it's surrounded and all sides by hills that you can rain artillery down from.
01:17:55.000Right. And the reason it exists was because—I can't remember the guy's name, but it was Harper.
01:18:00.000He had a ferry because that's where the river splits, and so he would ferry people, and then they set up a trade and port in the area.
01:18:07.000And then John Brown, who I think was a nutjob—he had been going to Kansas and just killing people with his sons—went to Harper's Ferry, seized the armory, attempting to start a slave revolt— And then when they stopped a train, he let the train leave.
01:18:25.000The train immediately made contact to the next stop and said, Yo, this guy's taking over the town.
01:19:29.000We didn't pick this location for any political or historic reason.
01:19:32.000We chose it because it's the eastern panhandle of West Virginia, which keeps us out of the liberal jurisdictions which ban guns, but allows us access to Baltimore and D.C. airports.
01:19:44.000Because the first place we built was actually in western Maryland, and then our guns were banned, and we were like, okay, let's move over a little bit.
01:19:52.000It sounds like Rutgers alluding more to serendipitous selection because...
01:20:16.000Operation Popeye was a real thing, but no one's creating and moving hurricanes.
01:20:19.000It's insane. However, one gentleman did bring up a very interesting slide that shows there was a correlation between weather patterns over a long period of time and reserve currencies.
01:20:30.000And that empires collapsed in correlation somehow for some reason along with global weather pattern.
01:20:39.000Yeah, yeah. And so as you were mentioning the strange cosmology and the strange connections we can't map out, let me break it down this way.
01:20:48.000I may say something like, we see a reserve currency collapse around the same time there's major storms, and you think that's spiritual hubbub supernatural nonsense.
01:20:55.000It's a coincidence. However, there's a really great map that shows voting patterns as influenced by ancient coastlines.
01:21:04.000In the south, in the United States, where the coastline used to go up to the southern states, into the center of those states, a long strip.
01:21:19.000farmed that specific area. When slavery ended, those areas became dominated by Democrat-leaning black communities who are now heavily Democrat, and they show you the correlation between ancient coastlines and how it affects modern voting today. Another really great story, which I'm sure you're aware of, is the distance of the train tracks and how it's based on the Roman chariots.
01:22:03.000Yeah. We have the safe harbor deadline in December.
01:22:28.000We have the electoral vote count January 6th.
01:22:31.000Do you have any, like, guess as to what kicks off a political conflict in this time period?
01:22:36.000Is it going to be January 6th where Democrats refuse to certify?
01:22:40.000Is it going to be Trump wins, but then riots erupt across the country?
01:22:43.000I operate in certain probabilistic ranges where if you're looking at something over a certain time frame, a group of people, you can make a genuine probabilistic bet.
01:22:52.000So I have an 80% probability the right wins.
01:22:54.000When you operate in frames like that— But you're saying 80% chance that Trump wins the election?
01:22:59.000Oh, right. So I think he's going to win the election.
01:23:01.000I also—that's not what I was saying.
01:23:03.000I think if there's a civil war, 80% chance the right wins.
01:23:08.000With a frame like a one-month period, you're operating on a scale of size that's too dependent on individual variables.
01:23:15.000And I think neither side is going to accept the results of the election.
01:23:21.000Right. The thing is they don't have to convince the other side.
01:23:24.000They just have to give their own side enough plausible deniability.
01:23:28.000And so I think we would end up with, let's say, an American people's government based out of Washington, D.C., and an American patriots government based out of Austin.
01:23:36.000And so if you want to look at English Civil War, French Revolution, America— Yeah, English Civil War, French Revolution, American Civil War, English Civil War, French Revolution.
01:23:50.000Each of them, both factions claimed to be the one true government, and the other faction were the enemies of the real government.
01:23:58.000And so what would happen is that, let's say, electoral issue...
01:24:03.000And I think there's going to be a lot of cheating this election because there's no incentive to not cheat.
01:24:09.000Right. Because people have disputed the last two elections.
01:24:12.000And Democrats have disputed every election they've lost going back, I think, 40 years.
01:24:19.000But now it's come to 2016 was stolen by the Russians.
01:24:52.000It would be— Like one of those wars you see in a country you don't want to travel to.
01:24:57.000Like if you look at Ethiopia where the Tigray and the Amhara are having a civil war and it just happened and they conscripted many of those ethnicities.
01:25:08.000You look at… You look at a variety of countries around the world, and these sorts of civil wars are very normal.
01:25:14.000And the sad thing is that an African saying that goes, when the elephants fight, the grass loses.
01:25:20.000Because when these great political conflicts happen, I'm from one of the most politically contentious parts of the country.
01:26:35.000The biggest variable I would look at here is the military is – the military tilts these conflicts and the military tilts right, and that's probably more pronounced over the last few years.
01:26:50.000The theory is the reason why the military has been going drag queen woke is because they're trying to purge out more conservative leaning members.
01:26:56.000Yes. It's like the Spanish Civil War, where in the Spanish Civil War, the military tilted right, and then the elected leftist government trying to purge the military, the top brass of the military.
01:27:07.000But if you want to look at the French Revolution and the Russian Revolution, what happened is that the top brass were political appointments while most of the military were sympathetic to the rebels.
01:27:18.000And then when push came to shove, the men sided with their colonels and their sergeants, not with the generals and the admirals.
01:27:26.000I wonder for those that are listening that served, if you believe either you or others would choose to go with their immediate chain of command, the people you know or the generals.
01:27:36.000Because I got a feeling a lot of people are going to be like, when you're looking at leadership like Millie, and he's the one who's giving orders, and then you got your buddies, the people you know and trust and have led you well.
01:27:45.000But I don't know. I haven't served, so I wouldn't know.
01:27:47.000Yes. Having the military mutiny and go for the non-ruling class, you see it in a lot of these revolutions.
01:28:39.000And the Danes, they were attacked by a one-legged pirate and then after beating the pirate, they sent him back in a boat with enough food to make it because they couldn't legally determine what nationality the pirate was.
01:28:57.000In no other era of history are you attacked by a pirate and you treat it like a bird that got lost in your house.
01:29:02.000How about this? Venezuelan gangs have taken over several apartment complexes in Aurora.
01:29:07.000The media lied, said it wasn't happening.
01:29:09.000Now they admit it's happening, but they say it's only a handful.
01:29:12.000Yes. In what history, historical period, and I'm sure there is one, would a nation allow a foreign group of violent attackers to seize its territory in any capacity?
01:29:25.000Yes. I have to imagine the references you'd bring up would be the fallen declination of a society.
01:29:29.000Yeah, Aristotle said that a tyranny will bring in the outsiders in order to – the outsiders can be trusted by a tyrant because they have no loyalty to the society.
01:29:40.000And so Aristotle said a tyrant will naturally bring in foreigners to oppress his own population because they won't have any investment.
01:30:45.000Yeah. Seems like we might be on path for a civil war.
01:31:11.000I'm like, Tim, you're crazy. Why would you make that up?
01:31:13.000And I'm like, guys. I predicted the invasion of Ukraine two years in advance, and then before it happened, I got it to the exact week it occurred.
01:31:22.000Because I was going off the Peter Zeihan analysis of Russia's demographics, and I was reading the news, too.
01:31:28.000I was looking at Olympic Games and weather patterns for when they could move troops in Ukraine.
01:31:33.000It's just, people are in denial, and one of my friends likes to say denial is an evolutionary strategy to avoid dealing with things you can't deal with.
01:31:44.000And then it's, as they say, gradually, then suddenly.
01:31:46.000And so, on November 5th, you know, let me also add, you mentioned the strange connections in cosmology and the universe, and how strange is it that we find ourselves in Harper's Ferry, that there is a street across from our old studio called Sandy Hook, and that on November 5th, The election is to take place.
01:32:13.000Remember, remember the 5th of November, the gunpowder treason in plot.
01:32:16.000Yeah. Our generation, 12 years ago, no, I'm sorry, this is like 14 years ago or 16 years ago.
01:32:25.000Remember when Anonymous on 4chan gathered around, was marching down the streets of all these major cities wearing Guy Fawkes masks?
01:32:32.000During Occupy Wall Street, people maintained the Guy Fawkes mask.
01:32:36.000Guy Fawkes, this was largely from V for Vendetta.
01:32:39.000A movie about an anarchist revolutionary who overthrows the tyrannical British government that seized power through a fake viral infection that they manufactured, controlling quarantine zones, making sure people can't go out at night, creating militaristic fingermen who could do whatever they wanted.
01:32:55.000And people wore these masks and chanted, remember, remember the 5th of November.
01:33:00.000And as it was, I can't remember, what's the actor's name who played V? Oh, Viggo Morgensen?
01:33:18.000And he says, if you see as I see and if you feel as I feel and if you would seek as I seek, then meet me one year from today on the steps of Parliament on November 5th.
01:33:28.000Yes. And I remember thinking it's fascinating because so many young people were like, yeah!
01:33:31.000And I was like, Guy Fawkes was a theocratic revolutionary.
01:33:36.000He wanted to overthrow parliament to install a Christian theocracy.
01:33:40.000Why are you young liberals cheering for this guy?
01:33:44.000They didn't know what they were cheering for, but millennials had it hard-coded in their mind November 5th, and now we stand at the precipice of chaos, and it is November 5th, the date the election is to take place.
01:33:56.000Damn. Do you know what a synchronicity is?
01:33:59.000Explain it to me. This is a concept from Carl Jung where – and it exists across societies.
01:34:05.000There's a brilliant book called Forgotten Truth by Houston Smith who was possibly the best scholar of religion of the 20th century.
01:34:11.000And Forgotten Truth, he goes to the philosophic points every major world religions share.
01:34:17.000It's weird stuff. But synchronicity is one of them.
01:34:21.000It's, for example, let's say you break up with your old girlfriend on the day you meet your new one, or that you have a birthday on the same day as your best friend.
01:34:32.000And you run in—if you hang out in religious and spirituals or whatever circles, you run into this— This type of person who writes down all the synchronicities in their life.
01:34:43.000Well, I can explain to you rather simply.
01:34:44.000You see, in the code of the universe, there's only so many limited variables that were hard programmed by the creator.
01:34:51.000And so the procedural generation has to repeat terms and dates because there's...
01:34:57.000Like in string theory, there are connections across the universe.
01:35:00.000And this is something physics believes in today.
01:35:03.000And in pre-industrial philosophy, it was called the law of sympathy.
01:35:06.000It's how if you stab a voodoo doll, the person suffers.
01:35:09.000Although I don't think if you actually do stab a voodoo doll, the other person's going to die.
01:35:14.000And one of the things Peter Turchin, who's one of the biggest scholars in this topic, and he's more on the autist than the schizo axis.
01:35:23.000So if he says this, it's something that has a lot of validity, is that you see these patterns that happen again in the same society when they have these crises.
01:35:35.000So for France as an example, three times in a row they had their civil war due to the king having a budget issue, calling the parliament, the parliament saying no, and twice they resolved the legal dispute in a tennis court.
01:35:49.000And Philippe Fabry has done a lot of work with us where he's – He does what I do in France, where he finds, for example, European societies repeat certain cultural patterns in their history, while Middle Eastern societies repeat different patterns in their history.
01:36:05.000And genetics codes a tremendous amount.
01:36:07.000I don't know how much of it's genetic or how much of it's cultural, but we can use genetics to predict how fast you drive, what music you listen to, how religious you are, you name your cat.
01:36:18.000So it wouldn't surprise me if stuff like this is coded into our genetics to a certain degree.
01:36:25.000We're gonna go to Super Chat, so if you haven't already, would you kindly smash that like button, give it a good ol' smash, subscribe, share the show with everyone you know, become a member by going to timcast.com and clicking join us, because I can assure you the members-only show is gonna get a little spicy, I'd imagine.
01:36:41.000Not so family-friendly, but always fun.
01:36:43.000This one's probably gonna be way more serious.
01:36:45.000Because there's a lot more that I want to break down, but maybe not so...
01:36:48.000Not when the kids are sitting there in the living room with you guys, because I know you're watching on the TV, and we'll keep this one for the members' show.
01:37:15.000That's what someone's claiming. You know, we have to fact check it, fact check it.
01:37:19.000Alright, what have we here, my friends?
01:37:22.000Little Abello says, Tim, money for that masterclass on Uncensored, being the real, calm, and logical one, and defending us, your audience, too.
01:37:30.000Kudos. I recommend you guys watch the Piers Morgan Uncensored I was on with a handful of people.
01:37:36.000It was just, it was absolutely fascinating, and it's a cacophony of noise that will probably grind your ears, and you will not enjoy it.
01:37:42.000But, um... You know, shout out to Piers Morgan, because I think he was trying to do a good job, but he invited some people on where you can't do that.
01:37:48.000And the first thing that Piers opens up with is, you know, Trump is struggling with female voters, Kamala with male voters.
01:37:54.000I'm going to send it to you, Tim, what do you think?
01:37:57.000You know, obviously Kamala is trying to court male voters, Joe Rogan, blah, blah, blah.
01:38:01.000And then I said, I think there are women that will hold their nose and vote for Donald Trump, but I think there are men that are sexist and just will not vote for a woman.
01:38:09.000And I don't know how Kamala Harris overcomes that.
01:38:11.000And then all of a sudden, you know, we get some rational thought, but this woman is just like Tim Pool and his misogynist audience of men and Tim Pool.
01:38:20.000And I was like, why are you saying my name?
01:38:22.000Like, I didn't say anything to you, like, lady, like, what are you yelling at me for?
01:38:25.000And she called me a COVID denier, said Tim Pool was a COVID denier who then got COVID and took ivermectin or something.
01:38:51.000I'm some podcast. I don't know. I don't know, man.
01:38:52.000I read the news. But the fascinating thing is the what is exemplified here is the left gets their news and information from clips that are out of context and they don't read the news.
01:39:01.000So when she was saying things like your far right audience, I was like, what?
01:39:05.000I was like, I just opened the show by saying inherent sexism is a barrier for Kamala Harris that is difficult for her to overcome.
01:39:32.000And I don't know if you've factored this into any of your equations, too.
01:39:35.000But when I look at the front page of YouTube, the default...
01:39:38.000I shouldn't call it the front page. Will you go to youtube.com?
01:39:40.000I saw a couple segments, and I brought this up last week, where they said that I was making comments about Cenk Uygur, and they edited different things together to make a fake debate between me and Cenk under the guise that it was real.
01:39:54.000And so it was me saying something that wasn't about Cenk, but they claimed, they said, look at what he said about Cenk.
01:40:01.000And I'm talking about some crazy burglar or something.
01:40:04.000Then he showed a clip of Cenk saying something like, I can't do it with this guy.
01:40:07.000You know, making people believe that there was a feud.
01:40:11.000And when there are people online that said like 30,000 views who get their information from these sources, they are living in a paranoid, delusional state.
01:40:19.000Now, the scary thing is people need to realize this is why I say I'm not worried about Antifa.
01:40:24.000When I, when famously, and I love this, on the Antifa forums, they call me a liberal.
01:40:30.000They say Tim Pool's a liberal because the far left know what liberals are and they don't like them.
01:40:33.000They say, what is behind every liberal is a fascist or something like that?
01:40:59.000Like that Sam Seder opened a segment claiming I supported the death penalty, which is absolutely false.
01:41:04.000Why? I assume he saw a 15 second clip on social media where the actual context was the law prescribes a death penalty for treason and not that I agree with it.
01:41:15.000He then repeats it to his audience, to millions of people, and they live in this crackpot reality, which I think is spiraling out of control.
01:42:29.000And I think that's the problem right now.
01:42:31.000They're trying to drop her into situations that other politicians can't handle.
01:42:34.000But I think that speaks to the fact that her advisors don't know her that well.
01:42:37.000They aren't setting her up for success because she can't rise to the occasion of the media opportunities they're presenting to her.
01:42:43.000The irony is that Rogan is not a high-intensity interviewer.
01:42:47.000I can't imagine if I was in a room with Rogan, I'd feel intimidated or I'd feel like he's really trying to grind down whoever he's interviewing.
01:42:55.000It's just you can't deal with a rational assessment of what your platform is.
01:43:02.000All right, Simon Ravenscroft says Rogan should say they have to be on the same show.
01:43:10.000Who said it before the show that he should give them both the same date but not tell them?
01:43:14.000And then they both show up at the same time?
01:45:07.000You know, maybe she's the hero that we need in that before she went on Pierce, she was like, I am going to be as insufferable a female Democrat I can be so that every male viewer will vote Trump.
01:45:20.000And she's a secret Trump supporter, you know, but she's taken that she's taken that dive to do the right thing.
01:45:28.000Like in Batman when, you know, Batman pretended to be the one who killed Harvey Dent.
01:45:32.000You know what I'm saying? That's right.
01:45:34.000Alright, let's grab a couple more. What have we here?
01:45:40.000ZZamp says, If you want to inspire male voters, please someone recreate Trump as Goku going Super Saiyan 1 for the first time against Kamala, Frieza.
01:45:49.000The cackle is almost indistinguishable.
01:45:51.000That's actually a really good idea for millennial guys.
01:45:54.000Are you familiar with when Goku went Super Saiyan for the first time?
01:45:57.000Yeah, you're too young. What about you, Phil?
01:46:11.000Frieza, in the middle of the fight, murders Goku's best friend, and then Goku goes blind with rage.
01:46:17.000And you know what's really fascinating about Dragon Ball Z is that Goku, he's got black hair and brown eyes, but when he gains superpowers, his hair turns blonde and his eyes turn blue.
01:47:39.000Get F'd. When did I say that? I didn't say that.
01:47:41.000You must have been listening to somebody else.
01:47:42.000I said, a lot of young black men are telling people they're going to vote for Trump, but does that mean they're actually going to turn out to vote for him?
01:47:49.000Young people don't turn out to vote, so why would this be any different?
01:47:52.000We've heard this in 2016 and 2020 and now today.
01:50:33.000Based African says, an ex I still discuss politics with confided that she believes if Trump is elected, far-right ideology will become so ingrained in the government that elections and rights will be suspended and the government will use foreign militaries to suppress uprisings because she lives in a paranoid, delusional state. This is where Democrats are.
01:50:51.000They live in what I would describe as a paranoid, delusional state of reality.
01:50:55.000Now, of course, there are crazy right-wing conspiracy theorists too, but this is the point I try to stress.
01:51:02.000The right leadership, it's like, who's the most prominent conservative guy in this country, Ben Shapiro?
01:51:08.000Yeah, I'm sorry, Ben, but he's boring.
01:52:30.000Joseph Ngo says, kept up with Candace Owens' research on Kamala.
01:52:34.000I have not. I know that there was a big controversy with Charlemagne because Janet Jackson says Kamala wasn't black or something like that and then Charlemagne asked her about it.
01:52:42.000Andrew Savoie? How do you pronounce it?
01:52:47.000I don't know how you kept your composure on Piers Morgan today, but my guy, I have a new respect for you also.
01:52:52.000Hannah Clare is a superstar. She needs a raise, otherwise you're a misogynist.
01:53:11.000I've been on panel shows, and then I say, well, you know, I think X, Y, and Z, A, B, and C. And then the guy says, sure, but with all due respect, Tim, I think we're going to see this, that, or otherwise.
01:53:20.000And then I'd be like, okay, fair point, but, you know, I'm going to say I think that's less likely to occur.
01:53:24.000And they'll say, well, thank you both for coming, and that's the end of it.
01:54:22.000I think that there's going to be a war either way.
01:54:26.000I think that if Trump wins, that the right...
01:54:34.000This is a very brutal thing to say, but I think for a lot of the population, including the political class, they are more worried about the current order continuing than it crashing.
01:54:53.000Alright, the great Von Braun says, here's to Hannah Clare, wife and I are in the hospital after having our second baby yesterday, so that was my wife's idea.
01:55:00.000This is hilarious. I love that this is becoming a thing.
01:55:38.000I have a campaign I've taken over, as the Romans have taken over all of Europe, half of Russia, most of America, South Africa, etc.
01:55:44.000It's fun. The Civilization games are directionally pretty good.
01:55:51.000They're pretty good at articulating history, especially for someone who's not a historian.
01:55:56.000They're doing as good a job as I could expect them to.
01:56:00.000If I were going to get into a really schizo level of analysis, I'll say empires rise and fall, and you have to deal with revolutions and disputes, and they miss a lot of the humanity, and they have a very...
01:56:16.000And the wig notion of history is that number goes up equal world gooder.
01:56:19.000And that stems from the industrial revolution of infinite progress.
01:56:22.000But if I were to sit in front of the game designers, I wouldn't tell them any of that because I have no idea how you'd translate any of that stuff into a game.
01:56:37.000biology they had in Soviet Russia and it was because Stalin was buddies with the guy who did it and it also had implications they wanted for Marxism where Lysenko was basing it off a French thinker I forget his Lamarck. It's Lamarckianism where, for example, if you have wheat and then force the wheat to go through a lot of bad winters, the wheat will alter itself to the conditions.
01:57:03.000So let's say Lamarckianism, you shove a white person in Texas.
01:57:07.000Within five generations, the white person is going to be looking like they're from – like they're Middle Eastern or looking like they're Mexican.
01:57:13.000That's not the case. Lamarckianism has been proven wrong except for some test case, some like edge cases.
01:57:20.000And Stalin wanted that because Lamarckianism fit with the blank slate that human nature is naturally perfectible.
01:57:28.000And so Lamarckianism failed because they tried to implement all Soviet agriculture under that model and it just didn't work.
01:57:35.000And then also it destroyed Soviet biology where the fields the Soviets were advanced in were physics where there's very – at least there are political ramifications to physics.
01:57:48.000So the Soviets were really advanced in aeronautical stuff and physics because there are no political ramifications.
01:57:53.000But anyone who stood against— That line in biology was just purged from the Soviet Union.
01:58:02.000And for those who saw the last video I released, I actually think Western academia has done something similar in our lifetimes, that there are an aggregate of so many lies that have been pushed for decades.
01:58:15.000The last lifetime since World War II that we will look back on in the future the same way we look back on Lysenkoism.
01:58:23.000I want to just say, too, have your kids play Civilization.
01:58:26.000I'm not kidding. I mean, once they're old enough to start to understand because there's a lot of important lessons to be learned, such as...
01:58:34.000One day, your seemingly ally, a neighboring country, says, it shows a little avatar guy, and he's smiling, and he says, we've come bearing gifts.
01:58:42.000And you're like, wow, thank you. And the next turn, his military is attacking your capital, and you're like, what?
01:58:46.000And it's an important life lesson about borders, culture, technology, history.
01:58:51.000You learn a lot, and then ultimately you learn sometimes people are evil and will stab you in the back for no reason.
01:58:56.000But that's not the only thing. I played Civ II when I was a kid, and you learn a whole lot.
01:59:02.000And I especially love... I played Civ IV for a bit.
01:59:03.000I think it's the one where Leonard Nimoy has all those great quotes.
01:59:13.000It's very educational. My father had a rule that I could only play strategy games until age 15.
01:59:18.000What? Yeah, he said I wasn't allowed to play shooter games or RPG games until I was 15 because he said I want you to play games that form your mind well when you're young.
01:59:28.000Well, that's good. All right, everybody, if you haven't already, smash the like button, subscribe, share the show with everyone you know.
01:59:34.000Head over to TimCast.com right now, because this members-only Uncensored show is going to get fun.
01:59:39.000Yeah, we're going to talk about Civil War and stuff like that.
01:59:41.000So again, TimCast.com, you click join us.
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01:59:51.000Rudyard, do you want to shout anything out?