Timcast IRL - Tim Pool - Trump Sentencing DELAYED, Trump WILL NOT Face Prison Until AFTER Election w-Ivy Lauren | Timcast IRLTrump Sentencing DELAYED, Trump WILL NOT Face Prison Until AFTER Election w-Ivy Lauren | Timcast IRL

00:00:00.000 Donald Trump's sentencing has been delayed.

00:00:13.000 He will not be sentenced until after the election, so the chance of him going to jail before the election is, as of now, probably zero.

00:00:21.000 And with Nate Silver's latest forecast improving, it was already 60-40, now it's 61-38.

00:00:29.000 The prediction is that Donald Trump is going to win this one.

00:00:31.000 So, of course, we have that news.

00:00:32.000 And then, ladies and gentlemen, very big news, which may surprise many of you.

00:00:36.000 Dick Cheney will be voting Kamala Harris.

00:00:39.000 I know.

00:00:39.000 I know people can't believe it.

00:00:41.000 So we'll talk about that.

00:00:42.000 Plus, we've got big economic news.

00:00:44.000 A bunch of major retailers are shutting down.

00:00:46.000 And we've got three stories pulled up from the past day of all these Macy's, LL Flooring, And it's crazy that Lichtman's prediction for Trump to lose is partially predicated upon the economy being good.

00:01:00.000 He thinks the economy is good, and I'm just like, I don't know how you look at that when stores are closing down, negatively impacting short-term, and with hundreds of locations shutting down, that's definitely bad long-term.

00:01:11.000 However, he has specific criteria for whatever that really means, so it should be interesting.

00:01:14.000 We'll talk about that.

00:01:16.000 Before we get started, head over to castbrew.com and buy Cast Brew Coffee.

00:01:19.000 It's our coffee.

00:01:20.000 And with your support, we're going to build coffee shops.

00:01:22.000 We got one currently in the works, but you know what?

00:01:24.000 More importantly, it's great coffee.

00:01:26.000 It's the best coffee you will ever have.

00:01:28.000 So try Appalachian Nights Rise with Roberto Jr.

00:01:31.000 Stand your grounds.

00:01:32.000 Mr. Bocas Pumpkin Spice Experience.

00:01:34.000 There's only 189 left of the whole bean, and there's only 94 bags left of the ground Mr. Bocas Pumpkin Spice.

00:01:41.000 Once this is gone, it is gone forever.

00:01:44.000 Rest in peace, Mr. Bocas.

00:01:46.000 You know, we knew you well, but support us at Casper.

00:01:48.000 Also, head over to TimCast.com, click join us to become a member and support our work directly.

00:01:54.000 If you think the show and the work we do is good, and you want to see it continue, then we definitely need your support as of right now, more than ever.

00:02:03.000 Largely, we are preparing a lawsuit against the Kamala Harris campaign for defamation, and we I have reviewed documents.

00:02:11.000 I can't say too much because we're getting close to making the moves we have to make, but these things do take time and maybe we'll see something by next week.

00:02:18.000 I don't want to say too much again.

00:02:19.000 So once again, smash that like button, subscribe to this channel, share the show with your friends.

00:02:24.000 Joining us tonight to talk about this and so much more is Ivy Loren.

00:02:27.000 Hi, I'm so happy to be here.

00:02:29.000 I'm excited.

00:02:31.000 Recent, former Mrs. Arizona.

00:02:34.000 I am an ambassador for Turning Point USA.

00:02:38.000 I am an ambassador for Live Action, for Students for Life, and I love creating content around motherhood, around encouraging women to embrace things like motherhood, marriage, and femininity.

00:02:48.000 And, you know, things that aren't really encouraged these days.

00:02:51.000 So, happy to be here.

00:02:53.000 Right on.

00:02:53.000 Thanks for coming.

00:02:54.000 We got Raymond hanging out.

00:02:55.000 Hey, привет друзья.

00:02:57.000 Welcome everyone.

00:02:58.000 My name is Raymond G. Stanley Jr.

00:02:59.000 I am here on this beautiful Friday, so I appreciate y'all being here.

00:03:02.000 It's a pleasure to meet you.

00:03:03.000 I look forward to talking to you.

00:03:03.000 Thank you.

00:03:04.000 Right on.

00:03:04.000 Yeah, it's fun to have you both.

00:03:05.000 Happy Friday, everybody listening.

00:03:07.000 I'm Hannah-Claire Brimlow.

00:03:07.000 I'm a writer for scnr.com, Skinner News.

00:03:10.000 Check out that work at TimCastNewsOnTheInternet.

00:03:12.000 Let's get started.

00:03:13.000 Here we go from NBC News.

00:03:14.000 Judge delays Trump sentencing in Hushmoney case until after November election.

00:03:19.000 The former president was scheduled to be sentenced on September 18th.

00:03:23.000 A New York judge has delayed Trump sentencing on felony criminal charges.

00:03:26.000 Quote, This is not a decision this court makes lightly, but it is the decision which in the court's view best advances the interests of justice.

00:03:34.000 Judge Juan Marchand wrote in the decision handed down Friday.

00:03:37.000 Marchand issued the ruling after Trump's attorneys had asked him to postpone the sentencing until after the election to allow them to appeal a pending ruling involving presidential immunity.

00:03:46.000 That ruling was expected by September 16th, just two days before what would have been the first ever sentencing of a former president on criminal charges.

00:03:55.000 They go on to mention the charges, which we know.

00:03:58.000 Rashan said in his order Friday that he took that as the DA essentially consenting to the request.

00:04:04.000 Well, let me actually say, prosecutors from Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg's office said they would defer to the court on whether an adjournment is warranted to allow for orderly appellate litigation of any Trump appeal, but would be prepared to appear for sentencing on any future date the court sets.

00:04:20.000 Murshan said in his order Friday that he took this as the DA essentially consenting to the request.

00:04:24.000 He also acknowledged that the case is one that stands alone in a unique place in this nation's history.

00:04:30.000 And so I have to wonder, some speculation right now is the reason they're doing this is because they fear sentencing Donald Trump would actually boost him.

00:04:37.000 And Nate Silver has already got him favored to win.

00:04:41.000 Yeah, it's interesting because Marshawn mentions the mitigating factors that's unique to this case, you know, that they're bringing charges or they're trying to sentence the one of the major political parties in America's presidential candidates.

00:04:54.000 I think that the lawfare against Trump is losing fuel.

00:04:59.000 I think even gung-ho progressives in these DA's office or in the DOJ that at one time thought that this was going to really be valuable to them.

00:05:08.000 Realize the clock is running out and that putting Trump behind bars wouldn't have the effect they want.

00:05:14.000 I also think that they they want there to be drama after the election, so they have to keep some things back to be able to say, you know, if he does win, well, then we want that that perp walk photo of this president.

00:05:26.000 You know, is this really who you want to be your president?

00:05:29.000 Yeah, well they've seen how the first time around, the photo, went around with everyone and they see how he had big boost in money.

00:05:36.000 What'd he make, like a hundred million dollars plus?

00:05:38.000 And this was just- They have some of the best campaign merch of all time.

00:05:41.000 The iconic, iconic mugshot, like sweatshirts and mugs.

00:05:45.000 And that's one of the only times he like got back on X at that point.

00:05:48.000 He was sort of there to drop his crazy merch and then leave.

00:05:51.000 Yeah, I'm wondering, would this have any effect on the gag order?

00:05:55.000 Like, would that continue it?

00:05:56.000 So that he is not allowed to talk about certain things until then?

00:05:59.000 Yep.

00:06:00.000 Yep.

00:06:00.000 Then I feel like that's another, you know... That's a good point.

00:06:03.000 They don't like him.

00:06:04.000 They're not doing it to be nice. 0.80

00:06:05.000 They want to keep his mouth shut.

00:06:08.000 That could be largely it.

00:06:10.000 If he gets sentenced, then he just goes off.

00:06:13.000 Not just about getting sentenced, which may give him a boost.

00:06:16.000 We don't know.

00:06:17.000 Some speculation from a lot of these pollsters is that the American people wouldn't vote for a convicted criminal.

00:06:22.000 But I guess sentencing doesn't matter in that regard if they're claiming he already is.

00:06:26.000 But theoretically that would release the gag then.

00:06:28.000 And then Trump can say whatever he wants about the case and start crafting a narrative.

00:06:32.000 This actually gives them some control over him.

00:06:35.000 But I guess what's the repercussion for him violating the gag order?

00:06:37.000 He goes to jail?

00:06:38.000 Yeah, fine.

00:06:40.000 I don't think they'd actually put him in jail for this, for contempt of court.

00:06:45.000 They're threatening to.

00:06:46.000 They had issued him so many fines, they were like, maybe it's time to put you on court.

00:06:50.000 I mean, that's really what Mershawn obviously wants.

00:06:53.000 And if I'm not mistaken, there's a congressional committee that's calling Mershawn's daughter's employer, because remember, she was part of a group fundraising off of Trump's legal issues in favor of Democrats, obviously, I feel like.

00:07:07.000 I have to clarify, even though we all know how that goes.

00:07:10.000 You know, I really think that there is a fear that they don't know what to do with Donald Trump.

00:07:15.000 Maybe the gag order is part of it.

00:07:17.000 He doesn't talk about it.

00:07:18.000 But I also think that it angers Democrats when they continue to lose.

00:07:23.000 Like, this wasn't a winning strategy.

00:07:25.000 This wasn't even supposed to be the strongest case against him.

00:07:29.000 And that's the only thing you can get convictions on.

00:07:30.000 Now, this is the Stormy Daniels case, right?

00:07:34.000 Yep.

00:07:34.000 The hush money stuff.

00:07:35.000 Yeah.

00:07:37.000 They've quickly found that they have to be really, really careful about what they do.

00:07:41.000 You know, getting a mugshot of him obviously backfired and didn't do what they wanted it to do.

00:07:47.000 And so I think they knew if they sentenced him, it might have the same effect.

00:07:52.000 And I don't know, I picture them sitting around in like a big boardroom being like, well, if we go here, he's going to do this.

00:07:57.000 We've got to go here.

00:07:58.000 It's all strategic.

00:08:00.000 And like you were saying, Ms.

00:08:02.000 Rep.

00:08:02.000 Fasonic Stefanik is trying to get him recused because he's got degrees of separation to his daughter, Ms.

00:08:08.000 Murchon.

00:08:09.000 She's trying to get him up because it's case is law, says a judge dictates that a judge must recuse from a case where a relationship up to and including a sixth degree has a financial interest in the outcome of the case, and that is him and his daughter.

00:08:22.000 Yep.

00:08:23.000 But it's not going anywhere.

00:08:24.000 I don't think it's going to go anywhere.

00:08:25.000 He's going to stay the judge.

00:08:26.000 It's kind of crazy because this means either Trump wins or he goes to jail.

00:08:33.000 After the election's over, this will be really interesting, especially if the election is contested.

00:08:38.000 They lock Trump up while the election is being contested, whether it's in favor or a detriment to him.

00:08:43.000 Like, let's say he wins, and then the Democrats are like, we're going to contest the election, and then they arrest the president-elect.

00:08:50.000 Or the inverse is even worse.

00:08:52.000 He doesn't win, he challenges the election, or Republicans do, and then he gets arrested.

00:08:57.000 Mid-challenge.

00:08:59.000 Here's what I hope.

00:08:59.000 I hope we have election day.

00:09:02.000 And whoever wins, it's rather uneventful.

00:09:04.000 And that's it.

00:09:05.000 And then everyone's just like, okay, well, you know, let's keep working on fighting the good fight and getting culture.

00:09:11.000 I just don't think that's a reality.

00:09:13.000 I don't think it's possible.

00:09:14.000 I think it's too much hysteria.

00:09:15.000 I think it's become a very contentious issue for a lot of reasons.

00:09:19.000 Some people totally justified, but I think people are feeling the drama of the 24-hour news cycle that has fed us into this election in particular.

00:09:30.000 I mean, every election someone says, this is beyond all of our nation, but I feel like this year more than ever because of sort of The number of unprecedented historical events that have happened, people really feel like this is make or break.

00:09:45.000 And that tension doesn't just go away on election day.

00:09:49.000 Even if your candidate wins, you have some kind of momentum.

00:09:52.000 The other side is obviously going to be in reaction to it.

00:09:56.000 And that's sort of the danger.

00:09:57.000 If we can't cool tempers, what do we do?

00:09:59.000 I feel like I'm buying into the hype with the whole, that's the most important election of our lifetime.

00:10:02.000 I keep telling myself, oh, it's just hype.

00:10:03.000 It's just hype.

00:10:17.000 It's just hype Everyone was saying, this is the most important one, Obama's going to end the war. 0.55

00:10:20.000 And then he didn't.

00:10:21.000 And I was like, so what really changed?

00:10:22.000 Not a whole lot.

00:10:24.000 And then 2012?

00:10:25.000 Oh, come on. 0.87

00:10:27.000 I mean, 2004?

00:10:27.000 Not really.

00:10:28.000 2000 was weird.

00:10:30.000 2004, everybody was pissed off.

00:10:32.000 And I remember watching the debates or reruns of them.

00:10:36.000 I think I worked at O'Hare when this was going on.

00:10:39.000 I barely remember or cared.

00:10:41.000 And everyone's like, this is important, you're going to go vote.

00:10:42.000 I'm like, I don't care.

00:10:43.000 And then, whatever, Bush won again and seemed uneventful.

00:10:47.000 Now it's...

00:10:49.000 Yo, they're arresting a lot of people.

00:10:52.000 Lawyers are getting arrested.

00:10:54.000 It's like with Twitter, with X, and with Instagram and those other platforms, there's a 24-7 violent mob confined to these social spaces where they don't have the physical capability to go and smash things, but it's just like, you take that large group of people and put them in the street with pitchforks and torches screaming, just banging on the ground, and that's the internet, that's social media.

00:11:16.000 So how do you cool those people down?

00:11:18.000 You can't.

00:11:19.000 Can't.

00:11:20.000 To our detriment, though, right?

00:11:21.000 It bubbles over?

00:11:22.000 It's definitely going to bubble over.

00:11:25.000 No matter what happens, 2025 is going to be 10 times worse than 2024.

00:11:28.000 And 2024 was 10 times worse than 2023.

00:11:31.000 So on.

00:11:31.000 I think culturally, we're getting further and further apart.

00:11:35.000 There's this huge divide, and I feel like people who used to not care so much about politics are jumping on one of the sides, and they have more at stake with every election that happens.

00:11:45.000 So I do think it is kind of hype of being, you know, this is the most important election, but I also think it actually is.

00:11:51.000 This is the most divided we've ever been, and both sides, I think, see so much to be lost if they don't win.

00:11:58.000 And we're going to war if we don't win.

00:12:01.000 I don't know that we avoid war at all.

00:12:05.000 I don't know at this point how Trump stops it.

00:12:08.000 I mean, look, a year ago I was like, oh, if Trump were to win, he gets in and he can negotiate the peace.

00:12:12.000 But now?

00:12:14.000 I don't know that that's possible.

00:12:16.000 And yeah, man, it seems like certainly there's a better choice with Donald Trump than the Democrats.

00:12:23.000 You think the dominoes have been hit down?

00:12:26.000 Yeah, and I felt like that was the plan.

00:12:27.000 We talked about this earlier in the year, that Democrats are going to inflame the tensions to the point where even Trump won't be able to pull it back because they want to make sure they get their war.

00:12:36.000 And hedging their bets is, well, if Donald Trump does win, at least the war will be at a point where it can't be rescinded.

00:12:42.000 Trump would not be able to give up certain territories that just ended overnight.

00:12:46.000 Like a bit part player like Buttigieg or anybody else.

00:12:50.000 But what if now she's like, no, you guys nominated me for president once, I deserve a second shot.

00:12:55.000 Like, she might not be able, she's not, I mean, she's, she's what, in her 60s?

00:12:59.000 She might be around for a little while now.

00:13:01.000 What if she sort of Hillary Clinton's it and like, every couple years throws her hat into the ring? 1.00

00:13:04.000 Yeah, I could totally see that.

00:13:06.000 I think she's a horrible candidate. 1.00

00:13:09.000 But I do think she has that Pride of not.

00:13:13.000 She wouldn't want to step down.

00:13:14.000 She wouldn't want to give up.

00:13:17.000 I think that Gavin Newsom has that, though.

00:13:19.000 And so I think if they were smart, they would plan for him to run.

00:13:22.000 But I don't know if she's going to let that happen.

00:13:24.000 Yeah, that'll be interesting.

00:13:27.000 But I think you're right.

00:13:27.000 I think they're a lot more divided because I can only think of a couple people again who

00:13:31.000 could win who yeah the potential well and then there's like the house uh leadership right like

00:13:36.000 hakim jeffries he's been climbing the ranks a little while does he want to make a bid for the

00:13:40.000 president like there are other democrats but again it's not like extremely cohesive on the state

00:13:45.000 level I think the obvious uh the obvious person who wants it is uh is uh gavin newsome but you

00:13:52.000 you know, Gretchen Whitmer might decide that she is the girl boss in charge. 1.00

00:13:56.000 She's backing Kamala Harris right now. 1.00

00:13:57.000 I mean, it's not clear that they know.

00:14:00.000 Maybe they'll develop a plan over the next four years, but it's hard to say.

00:14:03.000 Let's jump to this story.

00:14:04.000 We have this clip from Stephen Crowder.

00:14:06.000 President Trump responds to Crowder undercover bombshell.

00:14:10.000 So the Crowder undercover team recorded the chief public affairs guy from the DOJ saying that the cases against Donald Trump, or specifically the case around his real estate, is a travesty of justice.

00:14:22.000 Donald Trump has responded, and we have this clip here from Crowder.

00:14:25.000 Here we go.

00:14:25.000 There was a story about somebody in Southern District who's highly respected.

00:14:32.000 Knocking the hell out of both of those cases.

00:14:34.000 Say it's an embarrassment they were allowed to be brought.

00:14:38.000 That's you, Mug Club. 0.96

00:14:38.000 up. 0.96

00:15:00.000 Just revealed today, and I hope you're going to do a story because it's a big story.

00:15:04.000 The Southern District of New York was and this is a very highly respected group of people.

00:15:13.000 He said it was a disgrace that that case was brought.

00:15:16.000 It was a disgrace that the case was brought in front of Mershon.

00:15:19.000 This guy's probably going to try to lock him up.

00:15:21.000 It's going to be ugly.

00:15:22.000 They're so obsessed with getting him.

00:15:24.000 Who is they?

00:15:25.000 Who is they, though?

00:15:26.000 Democrats.

00:15:26.000 The case is a disgrace.

00:15:27.000 Who is they though?

00:15:33.000 The case is a disgrace.

00:15:34.000 Should have never been brought.

00:15:37.000 Should have never been brought.

00:15:38.000 There you go.

00:15:39.000 You saw the fruits of your labor.

00:15:42.000 And like I've said, millions of dollars and months and months of work have gone into it.

00:15:48.000 And it's just the beginning.

00:15:49.000 Hey, take this level of corruption and apply it to without giving it away.

00:15:54.000 of the other.

00:15:56.000 Biggest stories.

00:15:56.000 I want to give a shout out to Steven Crowder for that undercover work.

00:16:02.000 I feel bad for this Nicholas Biase guy, but I'm also kind of frustrated with him.

00:16:06.000 Because, man, come on, he's candid in those videos.

00:16:10.000 And you could hear he means what he's saying.

00:16:13.000 Democrats are trying to get Trump.

00:16:14.000 They just won't stop.

00:16:16.000 He issued a statement after the fact saying, oh, I don't actually think those things.

00:16:18.000 It was, I was just trying to impress somebody.

00:16:20.000 And it's like, oh, come on, dude.

00:16:22.000 You were so close to having your dignity and your respect, and we want to give it to you because I appreciate what he was saying on the undercover camera, but it's only going to work if it's backed up by what he says in real life.

00:16:32.000 He should come out and say, it's how I feel.

00:16:34.000 Thank you and have a nice day.

00:16:35.000 It's not coming from the DOJ, it's coming from me personally.

00:16:37.000 That's what I think.

00:16:37.000 Yeah, I agree.

00:16:38.000 Murshan mentions in his statement today, you know, the public trust in our institution and law and order is really important.

00:16:45.000 That's a terrible summation, but that's effectively what he's saying.

00:16:48.000 And it's kind of...

00:16:50.000 But what is this about these undercover videos?

00:16:52.000 just turned face and was like, oh, I was just trying to impress, I guess, a girl.

00:16:56.000 And I didn't mean anything I said.

00:16:58.000 I think Americans would feel as if their trust was restored if they knew it wasn't a monolith

00:17:04.000 in this office.

00:17:06.000 But what is this about these undercover videos?

00:17:08.000 It's the same thing with James O'Keefe, where, you know, he sends a woman into a date.

00:17:13.000 She meets with some like executive at a law firm and he's like, let me impress you with

00:17:16.000 some corporate malfeasance I'm involved in.

00:17:19.000 Like, what about a guy going and saying, the department that I work for, or the prosecutors here are bad people who are destroying the justice system?

00:17:28.000 How is that impressing a woman? 0.99

00:17:30.000 If he was saying, like, if he was wearing binoculars and a safari cap and he was juggling, like, some rare African bird and was like, look what I can do and look where I've been, I'd be like, that's trying to impress somebody.

00:17:40.000 We call that peacocking.

00:17:41.000 But to, like, talk to a woman and be like, this country is facing a travesty of justice. 1.00

00:17:46.000 The Democrats will not stop.

00:17:48.000 Everybody knows, guys, when you're going on a first date, talk about politics to the woman, especially how you don't like Democrats, because everybody knows women You get my point?

00:17:58.000 Especially in New York!

00:17:59.000 In New York talking to a woman!

00:18:01.000 They're in Manhattan and he just like meets a girl and he's like I'm gonna just assume she's conservative like interesting and bold choice unless she just signaled that she was supportive of Trump and he felt like he had to defend him but you know I think what's sort of sad about this is like This guy probably wants to talk about this all the time.

00:18:18.000 He probably does want to talk about what's going on.

00:18:20.000 And instead, I guess, at fear of losing his job, which, sir, you have to go back to this office now with all of these people and pretend you didn't say the things that you said.

00:18:29.000 Nobody thinks so.

00:18:30.000 Right, you should have just been a person of integrity and be like, those are my personal opinions that I set off ours.

00:18:35.000 Exactly.

00:18:35.000 If you wanted to impress a conservative woman, you say something like that and then you stick by it and you say, yeah, like, come at me, but that's the truth.

00:18:43.000 Interesting superchat from JBM.

00:18:45.000 Normally we say the superchats, but he said, wrong.

00:18:47.000 Roshun is scared for his life.

00:18:49.000 He's a lot of mockery of the justice in the courtroom.

00:18:51.000 And if he doesn't jail DJT, the left will destroy him and his family.

00:18:55.000 I actually think the reason why they may have postponed the sentencing is because they think he may win.

00:19:02.000 And if they jail him and he wins, Trump will return with some anger, some fever.

00:19:09.000 Yeah.

00:19:10.000 So try and appear more amenable.

00:19:14.000 And then should Trump win, they can say, look, you know, we we agree with your rulings and we postponed it.

00:19:18.000 We're just I'm the judge.

00:19:19.000 Don't look at me.

00:19:21.000 But I wonder if a component of this postponement is that with all this stuff going on, especially with this leak, And the prediction models, they're like, if Trump wins, we're in trouble, so get on his good side, or at least try to be on his good side.

00:19:33.000 This came out after the leak, right?

00:19:36.000 The leak came out first, and then Michonne said, hey, we're going to go ahead and move it out. 0.97

00:19:39.000 This came out, and then, yep, this was the other day.

00:19:41.000 So I could see this coming out, and you'd be like, okay, my bad, let's just postpone it until after the election.

00:19:46.000 Well, this for sure has something to do with it, yeah, if this was before.

00:19:50.000 I still think that, like, they want to be able to get some kind of purport.

00:19:55.000 I think there is a chance that they know Trump is going to win, and, like, as a last-ditch spiteful effort, they want to be able to run the headline, President-elect reports to jail.

00:20:02.000 Yes, but you only flick the balls of a lion if the lion is in a cage that he can't get out of.

00:20:07.000 Don't you think there's just an arrogance, though?

00:20:09.000 Like, they just think that they can pull it off?

00:20:12.000 Right, that's what I'm saying.

00:20:13.000 They have to genuinely believe that the lion is caged and can't get out.

00:20:16.000 Yeah.

00:20:16.000 And they're going to walk over and go, and just see what happens.

00:20:19.000 I think that. 0.97

00:20:20.000 I think that they are that that arrogant.

00:20:22.000 But I also think there's there's a potential component where they're like, hey, this this thing can jump the fence.

00:20:29.000 You know, it might climb the fence if it gets angry enough.

00:20:32.000 So just you never know.

00:20:34.000 Maybe.

00:20:34.000 Right.

00:20:35.000 If they if they throw everything.

00:20:38.000 Look, if Trump was expected to lose, they'd lock him up.

00:20:41.000 The fear is that putting him in jail helps him and he might win and then he's going to get revenge.

00:20:45.000 Yeah. And like I said, I think afterwards they want to be able to puncture any kind of like

00:20:50.000 Trump wins media headlines with. President goes to prison.

00:20:53.000 I think that there is there is like this last optic that they are trying to hold on to.

00:20:58.000 Maybe they won't sentence him if he gets elected, but I think there is, you know, people like Alvin Bragg and to a certain extent Marchand have really staked their careers on this and they did it with the ambition of climbing higher within the DNC and the progressive arm of American politics.

00:21:14.000 You know, they want to have the last say in this until it becomes impossible to speak anymore.

00:21:20.000 And I feel like with the, going back to the Crowder thing, like they know, I feel like they all know that what Bashan is doing is bad.

00:21:27.000 Like it's not like, it's not hidden news.

00:21:29.000 So he has, when he has a chance to talk to a pretty lady who's probably good at goading him out with some information, he'll gladly say it out loud to her in person instead of holding it tight.

00:21:37.000 Cause it's already like, it's like there at the crisp top of everyone knowing that it's true.

00:21:41.000 So she just says, gives him a little bit of push and he brings it out.

00:21:43.000 Wouldn't it be funny if like 14 other people come forward and they're like, oh yeah, I golf with him.

00:21:47.000 He talks about this all the time.

00:21:49.000 Like, you know, there's like a barista at his local coffee shop and he's like, he's constantly bringing this up.

00:21:53.000 I'm just trying to hand him a latte.

00:21:54.000 There's a guy who was like, I was trying to take a selfie with him.

00:21:57.000 And then he, and then he's filming and the guy's just talking about it.

00:22:00.000 And he's like, can you just hold still for a minute?

00:22:02.000 No, no.

00:22:03.000 It's a travesty of justice.

00:22:04.000 I cannot accept this.

00:22:05.000 His kids release these voicemails that are like, hey honey, I hope school's going well.

00:22:09.000 I just really think what's going on is great.

00:22:12.000 He does tell other people.

00:22:14.000 That conversation there with the stranger?

00:22:15.000 Oh yeah, yeah, yeah.

00:22:16.000 That's him being light.

00:22:17.000 This isn't new to him.

00:22:18.000 Yeah.

00:22:19.000 Talking out loud about this.

00:22:20.000 You can just tell, you can tell he's being real.

00:22:22.000 You can tell that that clip is like his real, normal self.

00:22:25.000 And then, just to come out, I just don't understand why you don't, if you're gonna do that, if you know it's out there, just stand by what you're saying.

00:22:32.000 Because now you made enemies of all kinds of people.

00:22:34.000 I know.

00:22:35.000 It's not like Bragg and his department are going, oh, thank heavens he apologized.

00:22:40.000 He never really meant that. 0.99

00:22:41.000 They're going, crap, we know what he thinks. 0.98

00:22:43.000 Then when he comes out and says, no, I don't think that, he just sullies himself with the right. 0.99

00:22:47.000 Not even the right, but the people who expect honesty.

00:22:51.000 Right, you're still the comms person for this department, so now no one knows what to think of you.

00:22:55.000 He's the bad guy for everyone.

00:22:57.000 What if the conflict that we're seeing is, for the longest time before the internet, We only had the mainstream narrative.

00:23:06.000 That narrative was probably the same BS that it is today.

00:23:09.000 You know, we fact-check and go, hey, wait a minute, they're lying.

00:23:11.000 I don't necessarily believe that's true, to be honest, because we primarily use corporate news sources.

00:23:16.000 We just fact-check them.

00:23:17.000 Like, Tim Walz's family endorsed Trump.

00:23:19.000 Well, there's a picture of his family doing it, so we assume that to be the case.

00:23:25.000 You know, when we find conflicts, my favorite example is Politico has a story claiming that Ukraine interfered in the 2016 election to assist Hillary Clinton, and Politico also has another story claiming that the allegation Ukraine interfered in the 2016 election to help Clinton is Russian disinformation.

00:23:41.000 How is Politico running both stories?

00:23:44.000 So I don't necessarily believe that it's always been as bad, but it still may be a part of the Internet, so I'm wondering if a large component of what we're seeing is actually just It's the natural process by which the narrative machine falls apart.

00:23:57.000 The opinions of officials back in the day used to be just like this guy is now, and then publicly he'd never say anything, and he didn't have Twitter, and there weren't really a lot of undercover cameras, so you'd never hear it.

00:24:08.000 But now, because of the internet, some random dude with a camera or Steven Crowder's crew can get him on candid camera, and now more and more of the truth is breaking out of the narrative machine.

00:24:19.000 Yeah, I think that there's an aspect to that.

00:24:21.000 Oh, I was gonna say, that's what journalism is supposed to be.

00:24:23.000 It's like, in some ways, it's a double-edged sword with social media and all this information, because a lot of these people will find, you know, they actually become the watchdogs for the government, which is what journalism is supposed to be and what it hasn't been in so long.

00:24:38.000 So I love seeing stuff like this.

00:24:41.000 I think that the difference between the private opinion and the, like, I'm going to stand by what my employer is saying was easier before the internet.

00:24:53.000 I mean, you see this all the time now where people will get in trouble for something you post online.

00:24:56.000 Maybe that's not fair because it doesn't represent their company's values that someone reports on them.

00:25:01.000 In this case, I actually feel like, and I'm just a broken record over here, but you know, I feel like having at least one person in that office who is like, yeah, it seems like this is not good.

00:25:11.000 I don't agree with the choices that were made.

00:25:13.000 As an independent American, that makes me feel better, right?

00:25:17.000 I don't, I always had questions about this and I think even not super political people look at the number of cases that That different branches of law enforcement brought against Trump over the last couple years.

00:25:31.000 And they say, like, obviously there's some kind of coordinated effort to get him.

00:25:35.000 You don't want to be looking at these institutions and saying, no one in there would ever take my concerns seriously.

00:25:41.000 You want there to be someone who is like, this doesn't seem right. 0.96

00:25:44.000 I think we may be messed up here.

00:25:45.000 Yeah.

00:25:46.000 And for so long, the main news outlet sources would never have covered that.

00:25:50.000 So you wouldn't have known.

00:25:53.000 Which is interesting.

00:25:54.000 What do you think happens with Trump?

00:25:55.000 Do you have a prediction for, I guess now, November, instead of two weeks from now?

00:26:00.000 I'm always afraid to say it, but I think he, like, mops the floor with her.

00:26:04.000 I think he... You think he's gonna win?

00:26:06.000 I think he's gonna win, yeah.

00:26:07.000 Well, that's Nate Silver's prediction.

00:26:10.000 Well, let's do this.

00:26:11.000 Before we... Let's jump right into Nate Silver's prediction, actually.

00:26:15.000 So we got this interactive poll says latest Nate Silver 538 forecast chance of winning August 23 Harris 53.5 to Trump 46.1 but as of September 6th Trump is at 61.5 to Harris is 38.3 we actually have it here silver bulletin and it looks like they predict Trump is good as of right now and this could change Nevada and Arizona go Trump.

00:26:41.000 North Carolina and Georgia go Trump.

00:26:43.000 PA, Michigan, Wisconsin all go Trump.

00:26:46.000 I mean, that is heavy.

00:26:48.000 They're saying that Trump's chance of winning PA is 61% to Harris' 38%.

00:26:54.000 And a while ago, Nate Silver said, if Kamala Harris does not win PA, her chance of winning the election will be 4%.

00:27:02.000 So, it looks particularly heavy in favor of Donald Trump right now, and we're two months out.

00:27:09.000 This is where these models are starting to matter the most.

00:27:12.000 He's got the polls, too, to back it up.

00:27:14.000 Here's the important thing about the national-level polls.

00:27:17.000 Harris is at 49 to Trump's 46.

00:27:20.000 Two big, important points.

00:27:21.000 Many of these polls typically favor Democrats, so it could be within the margin of error.

00:27:26.000 More importantly, national popular vote does not matter for who wins the president.

00:27:31.000 So, of course, if the polls show a 3% skew towards Harris, but that's mostly Los Angeles, New York, and, you know, Illinois or Chicago or whatever, then it doesn't matter.

00:27:41.000 Trump wins the swing states, Trump wins the election.

00:27:45.000 I was in northeastern PA this last past weekend, and everywhere are Trump signs.

00:27:50.000 Even very outskirts of Scranton, which is definitely Harris, 100% Democrat.

00:27:55.000 Well, because Joe is from Scranton, hypothetically.

00:27:57.000 He's got a highway named after him.

00:27:59.000 Anyways, even on outskirts, like the small cities, I've been seeing more Trumps, because I was doing a lot of driving around my family's here and there.

00:28:06.000 But you do usually see Obama or Biden on these little small towns.

00:28:13.000 Small offshoots of the city, but I'm seeing Trump, so that's huge.

00:28:15.000 I feel like that's a good sign for PA to win Trump.

00:28:19.000 61% he said?

00:28:21.000 That's where it's all at.

00:28:22.000 It's insane.

00:28:23.000 It's all in Pennsylvania.

00:28:24.000 You know what was weird is I went to Southern California last week.

00:28:27.000 Trump signs everywhere.

00:28:29.000 All over in California.

00:28:32.000 Yeah, so I mean, not, you know.

00:28:34.000 What about in Arizona?

00:28:35.000 Because Arizona's a swing state this year.

00:28:36.000 Arizona's a swing state.

00:28:37.000 And that's where you're from.

00:28:38.000 That's where I'm from.

00:28:39.000 And that's, you know, it was, I think it was, it's been red since like the 40s.

00:28:45.000 And then in 96, it went for Clinton.

00:28:48.000 And then in 2020, barely for Biden.

00:28:50.000 And so hopefully it'll go back red.

00:28:52.000 But it's kind of been a mix.

00:28:53.000 I mean, I see more Trump signs everywhere, but I also did in 2020.

00:28:57.000 I've seen never zero Biden.

00:29:00.000 I mean, I've seen him 2020, but I don't see any Harris's.

00:29:01.000 I don't see any Biden's today, like nowhere and anywhere I go.

00:29:04.000 I see him in some places.

00:29:05.000 I almost feel like it's like the one house in the neighborhood that's trying to point out to everyone else that they're Democrats.

00:29:11.000 Like it's only if there's other Trump flags.

00:29:13.000 Yeah, well it's also never just, I never see just a Biden sign.

00:29:16.000 I feel like I always see a Biden sign or Biden-Harris sign or whatever it is now, plus a pride flag, plus like some other like symbols of like, we're not like the rest of you. 0.65

00:29:26.000 But, and maybe that's because I'm in West Virginia.

00:29:29.000 I think that it's Nice to see polls like this.

00:29:32.000 It makes me so nervous that conservative voters will get complacent.

00:29:37.000 Like, I just, you know, when the polls leaned, when you saw this rise in Kamala Harris, you know, gaining some ground after the initial bump after she was announced, then she picks walls and conventions, stuff like that.

00:29:50.000 I think it was a good reminder to People who will vote Republican, Independent, Federal, Leaning, Conservative, that like they have to do something.

00:29:58.000 It's not enough to look at like a surging Trump poll and be like, cool, somebody's got this.

00:30:03.000 You know, a likely voter is not the same thing as someone who has definitely cast a ballot for Trump.

00:30:08.000 And, you know, early voting starts in Pennsylvania, you know, in about 10 days.

00:30:15.000 But that's my biggest fear, I guess, that people will be like, oh, well, he looks like he's in the lead, so I'll just stay home today or I won't do anything about it.

00:30:23.000 I know.

00:30:23.000 And that's why that's why I worry when I say I think he'll mop the floor with her only if we actually get out and go vote.

00:30:28.000 And that's a big thing.

00:30:29.000 And also with with independents and, you know, there's millions more registered Democrats than Republicans.

00:30:37.000 So if we if we want to have it in the bag, we have to, you know, Get those people to, and not just, like you said, not arrogant, not get complacent.

00:30:46.000 Do you feel like anyone's complacent right now?

00:30:48.000 Do you guys see that around?

00:30:50.000 I'm not seeing any complacency going on.

00:30:52.000 Not among politically active individuals.

00:30:55.000 Although, I don't know, you know, looking at Nate Silver's model...

00:30:59.000 I wonder how it is that, you know, this Alan Lichtman guy is going the other way.

00:31:03.000 And this guy's only been wrong one time, and it was Gore v. Bush, which is a weird election.

00:31:07.000 This could be a weird election.

00:31:08.000 Don't get me wrong.

00:31:09.000 I mean, Joe Biden flipped, like, winning the primary, but then dropping out is very anomalous.

00:31:16.000 So I don't know if anyone can predict what's going to happen.

00:31:18.000 I don't even know if Nate Silver's predictions make sense, because Nate Silver is accounting for public sentiment.

00:31:24.000 Is he accounting for bureaucracy and administrative and procedural place?

00:31:28.000 The polls that I like the most right now, that I personally feel the most comfort in reading, are state-level polls where the presidential election is not the only issue.

00:31:38.000 Like, again, I was talking about this the other day, but Montana, AARP released one about Montana that was largely about the Senate race.

00:31:45.000 It talked about, you know, the influence of uptick in voting, you know.

00:31:49.000 Whether they're going to vote for Trump or Harris, but I feel like people will say one thing about the top of the ticket.

00:31:55.000 They're like, oh yeah, I'll probably vote for this guy, whatever else.

00:31:57.000 But people who are actively thinking about their congressional seats, their Senate seats, the people who are willing to give you an opinion on that, I feel like they are the most likely to turn out to vote because it's easy to, you know, you said football season's about to start.

00:32:11.000 It's easy to wear the jersey.

00:32:12.000 It's a different thing to buy the ticket to the game.

00:32:15.000 It's a good analogy.

00:32:16.000 Thanks, I'm so good at sports.

00:32:17.000 That's so well done.

00:32:18.000 Let me tell you.

00:32:21.000 Yeah, Pennsylvania.

00:32:23.000 Go Trump.

00:32:23.000 I think we got it in the bag.

00:32:25.000 I've been hearing that there are, you know, in Virginia, lots of Harris signs.

00:32:28.000 What?

00:32:30.000 Yeah.

00:32:30.000 I do a lot of driving around.

00:32:31.000 Maybe Eastside or Westside?

00:32:33.000 Maybe North Loudon area.

00:32:35.000 That's just what I've been hearing.

00:32:36.000 I don't know.

00:32:36.000 I've not actually seen any.

00:32:39.000 I was through Martinsburg this week earlier.

00:32:42.000 I didn't see anything, at least in the main strips.

00:32:45.000 You know, I've seen a couple of Harris signs here and there, but nothing significant.

00:32:48.000 You drive around and everything's a Trump flag or something like that.

00:32:51.000 So I grew up in Connecticut, which is always blue, but it would make me laugh during 2016 because I would go back, it was in college at the time.

00:33:00.000 There were houses that had Trump signs, which I was kind of surprised about because it's, you know, a pretty blue area.

00:33:05.000 And there were very few houses that had Biden signs.

00:33:09.000 He won the state.

00:33:10.000 It's not that the Democrat didn't win the state.

00:33:15.000 It's just that, like, the Trump supporters were more willing to talk about their stance, which is interesting culturally.

00:33:21.000 And people who are voting Democrat, I guess, just didn't feel the need to, like, They weren't that into Hillary Clinton, I think.

00:33:28.000 I really think for the last four campaigns that the Democrats have fielded, which is Clinton, Biden, Biden Part 2, and now the Harris-Walls takeover, they're all actually about Trump, right?

00:33:40.000 It's sort of about their candidate in the sense that they have a name on the ticket, but actually they are Asking voters to vote against Trump.

00:33:46.000 And I just don't think that narrative holds up right now, especially given the state of the economy, the state of national trust, the way we look like we were standing on the international stage.

00:33:56.000 I think voters, I think it would have been better for the Democrats if they had an actual inspirational candidate.

00:34:02.000 And they didn't have that twice this year.

00:34:04.000 And that's what they already did in 2020 of, like, that guy is orange and bad and he's, you know, awful.

00:34:09.000 In 2016.

00:34:10.000 I mean, that's, again, the fourth time they've run this narrative.

00:34:12.000 I think people are getting sick of it, honestly.

00:34:15.000 And he's not that bad anymore.

00:34:16.000 They already had him for four years, so he's not the devil.

00:34:18.000 Exactly.

00:34:18.000 They can't, you know, like, point to him.

00:34:21.000 Did you guys ever have someone... I have a couple friends who are, you know, always going to vote Democrat.

00:34:26.000 They believe that, you know, they're progressive to the core.

00:34:29.000 But they're, you know, after Trump was president, there was, you know, a lot of people got money back on their tax turns because of some of the economic policies implemented.

00:34:38.000 And I would have these friends turn to me and be like, yeah, I hate this guy, but I do have a lot of money right now.

00:34:42.000 So that's kind of cool.

00:34:43.000 Like, they would say something positive, but they have to caveat by saying, like, but I still don't like him.

00:34:49.000 Yeah, they'd say, like, I wish he just had a better attitude, you know?

00:34:52.000 But things are going great monetarily.

00:34:54.000 Yeah.

00:34:55.000 I have people still talking about him in that recorded conversation about grabbing something by something.

00:35:01.000 And that still gets in their brains to this day.

00:35:03.000 They bring it up all the time.

00:35:04.000 See, what I think about is Theo Vonser's interview with Trump, where Trump is like, yes, the economy was good under me.

00:35:08.000 And Theo Vonser goes, yeah, my cousin bought a boat.

00:35:12.000 I think that is how a lot of Americans remember that time.

00:35:14.000 Like, oh yeah, my family went on vacation.

00:35:16.000 That was pretty cool.

00:35:17.000 My cousin bought a boat.

00:35:18.000 Yeah, it was great.

00:35:18.000 I think that needs to be a strategy too, especially like in the debate is to be like, hey, I know you guys, you don't have to love me.

00:35:24.000 You don't have to like that I'm orange.

00:35:26.000 You don't have to like the things I say, but I'm not her.

00:35:30.000 And if you don't vote for me, you get her.

00:35:32.000 Why has no spray tan company, like, tried to release a shade that's, like, Trumpy and orange?

00:35:37.000 I just don't understand.

00:35:38.000 Does it look good?

00:35:39.000 I mean, he has rocked it.

00:35:40.000 I don't understand.

00:35:41.000 He seems to be doing well.

00:35:42.000 Yeah.

00:35:43.000 He owns it.

00:35:44.000 Yeah, the I'm not her, because their motto was, I'm with her.

00:35:48.000 And he'd be like, yo, I'm not her.

00:35:50.000 Wouldn't it be really funny if that's not a spray tan, it's just Trump?

00:35:53.000 He's just orange, you know?

00:35:55.000 I hope that's just natural.

00:35:57.000 That'd be great.

00:35:58.000 A lot of carrots turn orange.

00:35:59.000 He has good eyesight then, too.

00:36:00.000 That's right, he's an old man, no glasses.

00:36:02.000 Yeah, actually, that's an interesting question.

00:36:04.000 He doesn't wear glasses, he's old.

00:36:05.000 Yeah.

00:36:06.000 I don't know, I guess... Doesn't everybody after like 40 or 50 start wearing glasses?

00:36:10.000 Maybe he's LASIK?

00:36:13.000 Everyone I know, all my oldies, yeah, they wear glasses.

00:36:16.000 The thing about carrots giving you good eyesight is a myth.

00:36:19.000 Sure.

00:36:20.000 Yeah, it was World War II.

00:36:25.000 I think it was the Allies developed sonar and radar, or I think it was sonar, not sonar, radar, and was able to pinpoint locations at night.

00:36:34.000 And in order to try and like, the Germans trying to figure out how do they know where we are at night.

00:36:38.000 The West was just like, they spread a lie that they were eating a lot of carrots that was improving their eyesight so they had good contrast or whatever.

00:36:45.000 I mean, it's so crazy.

00:36:50.000 It's crazy how different war was a hundred years ago.

00:36:53.000 Like, seriously.

00:36:55.000 Wasn't there like an operation where the British had a bunch of inflatable tanks and stuff?

00:37:00.000 Yeah, so that the Germans would see it from above and it would look like massive forces, but it was just balloons.

00:37:05.000 That's crazy.

00:37:05.000 Yeah, they inflated a bunch of balloons that looked like tanks and stuff.

00:37:09.000 What a more creative time.

00:37:10.000 Yes.

00:37:11.000 I mean, I wouldn't be surprised if we still have stuff like that.

00:37:14.000 You ever see those warships that have like zebra print zigzags?

00:37:18.000 It's so that you can't tell the distance.

00:37:20.000 Oh, interesting.

00:37:21.000 Or their orientation. 0.84

00:37:23.000 Yeah, crazy.

00:37:24.000 That's interesting.

00:37:26.000 Modern technology, or technology in general, is huge for war.

00:37:29.000 Indeed.

00:37:30.000 It is.

00:37:31.000 Yep.

00:37:32.000 So do you guys have predictions on which states Trump will win in terms of swing states?

00:37:36.000 Every single one.

00:37:37.000 Every single one.

00:37:39.000 He's not going to get anything.

00:37:40.000 Let's pull this one up from the Post Millennial.

00:37:41.000 Michigan court rules RFK Jr.' 's name should be removed from ballot.

00:37:46.000 This reverses a lower court ruling.

00:37:48.000 So I think this will play a big role for Trump in the prediction models.

00:37:51.000 The Michigan appeals court has ruled the name of RFK Jr.

00:37:55.000 should be removed from presidential ballots in that state.

00:37:58.000 This comes after Kennedy suspended his presidential campaign and endorsed Donald Trump.

00:38:01.000 He has since petitioned to have his name removed from ballots in 10 key battleground states,

00:38:05.000 including Michigan.

00:38:06.000 A lower court in Michigan had said that Kennedy's name should not be removed, but the appeals court determined that Democrat Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson had no basis to deny Kennedy's request to withdraw his name from the ballot, the Detroit Free Press reports.

00:38:22.000 The appeals court further determined that the law Benson used to justify her refusal to remove Kennedy's name from the ballot only to candidates for state office, not to presidential candidates such as Kennedy.

00:38:34.000 It was only two days ago that the Michigan judge determined that Kennedy, the Kennedy,

00:38:38.000 must remain on the November ballot, which would have potentially aided

00:38:41.000 Vice President Kamala Harris's bid for the White House, which is the very candidate Kennedy is 0.85

00:38:45.000 hoping to see defeated. I don't know if I agree with that logic, to be completely honest, because

00:38:50.000 that argues Kennedy was always pulling from Trump.

00:38:54.000 Him staying on the ballot may pull from the Democrats.

00:38:57.000 I don't know why everyone's immediately assuming this is just bad for Trump.

00:39:00.000 Is it because even though he's a Democrat, but he was kind of based Democrat, so they think anyone who's has some illogical brain cells might be voting for him from on the right side instead of the left side?

00:39:10.000 Well, when he first announced that he was switching to an independent, a lot of people were like, Well, first off, let's remember that it was Democrat organizations that were trying to keep him off the ballot initially.

00:39:22.000 I don't know of any Republican state-led effort that was like, we've got to keep RFK off the ballot.

00:39:28.000 That should tell us something, right?

00:39:29.000 It was also his family that said he should drop out.

00:39:31.000 This was when he was an independent because it would hurt the Democrats.

00:39:35.000 So obviously someone thought it was bad for him to be there.

00:39:38.000 But when he initially announced his candidacy and again when he announced that he was going to be an independent, there was a lot of enthusiasm among people who identified as conservative.

00:39:46.000 But when you would look at polls that would ask them like, oh, so you like him?

00:39:49.000 They'd be like, yeah, we think he's great.

00:39:50.000 And they're like, are you going to vote for him?

00:39:51.000 They'd be like, no, I'm voting for Trump.

00:39:54.000 But, you know, I think he does appeal to a lot of voters.

00:39:57.000 Now, independents are a little more mixed.

00:40:00.000 But again, like, I don't think that an independent that was leaning towards Trump I don't think there's enough of them that were going to not vote for Trump.

00:40:09.000 Whereas Democrats were deeply unhappy with Biden as a candidate and were looking for other options.

00:40:15.000 Very based.

00:40:16.000 Uh, Jocelyn was, I seen her on MSN today. 0.93

00:40:17.000 She was, uh, MSNBC, and she was super mad because I guess she got to reprint everything.

00:40:21.000 It's gonna cost a lot of money to get everything reprinted.

00:40:24.000 And that was her excuse to the, uh, host, as they're gonna spend millions of dollars, taxpayer dollars, to redo the ballots. 0.99

00:40:30.000 And even though she had all the time ahead of time to make that change, she waited to the last minute.

00:40:34.000 And now she is forced to.

00:40:36.000 And she's costing her own people, you know, their own money. 0.95

00:40:40.000 Well, to go back to where we started, I think we can assume then if Trump really was losing voters to RFK Jr., this boosts Trump in Michigan.

00:40:52.000 Yeah, I think it does.

00:40:52.000 And I think it's because the Democrats have become so extreme that anything, even in the middle, even anything is, is more Republican.

00:41:02.000 It's more conservative now.

00:41:02.000 It's, it's just this past, you know, couple years have become such a divide.

00:41:07.000 And so I think a lot, I don't think there's very many, you know, Democrats that they're losing here.

00:41:14.000 Yeah, I think you're right.

00:41:15.000 I think that it's interesting to watch the lawfare have gone from, we must keep him off the ballot to being like, no, now you can't get off the ballot.

00:41:24.000 And in some ways, I think it's just another testament to how poorly the Democratic Party treats RFK Jr., who really could have been the sort of firebrand to breathe new life into the Democratic Party.

00:41:37.000 If they were open to it, but they obviously weren't.

00:41:39.000 There's a regiment direction they are trying to move in and he doesn't get to be a part of it.

00:41:44.000 You know, Michigan is a state that I don't count on for Trump, but it would be interesting if not having RFK does tip it in his favors.

00:41:54.000 I just don't know if that's the case.

00:41:56.000 Do you think we have a better chance with Michigan or Wisconsin for Trump?

00:42:00.000 It's hard to know.

00:42:00.000 I haven't looked enough to doubt it.

00:42:01.000 Do you have an instinct?

00:42:02.000 I would go with more Wisconsin, because I feel like it's a bigger rural area than Michigan would be.

00:42:07.000 Interesting.

00:42:07.000 Michigan has bigger cities and different demographics.

00:42:11.000 Yeah.

00:42:12.000 Anything, Madame?

00:42:13.000 Let's see.

00:42:16.000 Is he on the ballot in Michigan?

00:42:19.000 Trump?

00:42:19.000 RFK?

00:42:20.000 Well, he's going to come off the ballot in Michigan.

00:42:22.000 Or in Wisconsin, I mean.

00:42:24.000 Trump is.

00:42:24.000 Yeah, Trump's on all of them.

00:42:25.000 And I think RFK is.

00:42:27.000 He tried to get off, but I think Michigan wouldn't let him.

00:42:30.000 Wisconsin wouldn't let him, sorry.

00:42:31.000 Okay.

00:42:33.000 Interesting.

00:42:33.000 Yeah, I don't know, honestly.

00:42:35.000 Both of those, both of those I feel like are a toss-up.

00:42:38.000 That's why, again, you can't get complacent, I feel like, especially in the swing states.

00:42:43.000 Yeah.

00:42:43.000 If I'm remembering correctly, Michigan is one of the states that during the primary said basically there was a significant enough portion of votes that were saying, we want not Joe Biden.

00:42:57.000 Yeah, the non-committed voters, which is fascinating, right?

00:43:01.000 Because then that was largely at the time reported because of the Palestine-Israel conflict.

00:43:06.000 So if those voters who, from all the interviews I've heard done with people who are, this is their single issue this year, it's not enough to have swapped out for Harris.

00:43:16.000 They need the promises of a complete ceasefire.

00:43:20.000 And I don't think anyone has won them over on the Democratic Party.

00:43:24.000 So if you're a non-committed voter in Michigan, It's not that you're going to switch and vote for RFK, it's that you sit out the election entirely.

00:43:31.000 So RFK's name coming off the ballot wouldn't win Trump those voters, it would just continue to free up voters who are going to pick someone else.

00:43:41.000 It doesn't motivate the people that the Democrats actually need.

00:43:44.000 And Kamala has never said anything about doing ceasefires.

00:43:47.000 I still see people mad about her not going far enough to shut it down right now.

00:43:51.000 She kind of just pays lip service to it. 0.99

00:43:53.000 That's my take on it.

00:43:54.000 That's what she does to everything. 1.00

00:43:55.000 She doesn't answer the questions, so it's like, what are they supposed to think?

00:43:59.000 Still no policies on the website?

00:44:01.000 Not as far as I know.

00:44:02.000 That's crazy.

00:44:05.000 And once again, I'll throw it to the Lichtman prediction where it says that the incumbent party affects major national policy change.

00:44:12.000 Without having any policies, I don't know how he's saying that's true.

00:44:15.000 It's business as usual, unless she tells us she's doing something else.

00:44:18.000 I mean, there was that stuff on the capital gains tax today where it's like, it's less than what Biden is suggesting, but it is still an increase.

00:44:25.000 Like, it's like she is trying to suggest, oh, I'm not like Biden, but actually she is basically still the Biden-Harris administration, except for when she's copying Trump.

00:44:35.000 So what's the game plan?

00:44:36.000 She wants to distance herself from Biden, but then people say, OK, how are you going to do that?

00:44:41.000 They did make an update to the website.

00:44:44.000 They did?

00:44:45.000 But it's just a countdown for four days, a countdown to the debate.

00:44:49.000 That's all it is.

00:44:49.000 The only thing new on it.

00:44:51.000 When is the countdown to their policies coming?

00:44:54.000 What is this?

00:44:54.000 When I see the countdown, I was like, oh, cool.

00:44:55.000 Is that what they mean?

00:44:56.000 They're gonna do policies?

00:44:57.000 But nope.

00:44:57.000 Oh, yeah, there it is.

00:44:58.000 Chip in before the debate.

00:45:00.000 Four days, zero hours, 12 minutes, 52 seconds.

00:45:04.000 And Harris debates Trump on September 10th.

00:45:06.000 Show your support for team Harris-Waltz by donating any amount.

00:45:09.000 And no policies.

00:45:13.000 This is crazy times, man.

00:45:14.000 I was talking about it this morning.

00:45:17.000 It just feels like the over the past seven to 10 years, the collective IQ of this country has dropped by like 10 points.

00:45:27.000 Or I don't know how else to describe it.

00:45:29.000 But people that I knew who are otherwise smart, even if they weren't super, they didn't care, have seemingly lost the capability to comprehend Simple things?

00:45:44.000 Like...

00:45:46.000 You show them a video of Trump saying something and they just forget it in five seconds.

00:45:51.000 I don't want to call anybody specifically out, but there are people that I know where they'll be like, did you hear Trump did this thing?

00:45:56.000 And I'll say, here's a video.

00:45:57.000 And they'll go, oh, I didn't realize that.

00:45:59.000 And then 20 minutes later, they're like, did you hear Trump did this thing?

00:46:02.000 Or they'll like throw in a conversation like, yeah, well, Trump said this.

00:46:04.000 And I'm like, I just showed you the video.

00:46:07.000 What is going on?

00:46:09.000 How are we in this world where Kamala has no... Barack Obama had policies.

00:46:14.000 Like, it was convincing to people!

00:46:17.000 It convinced me!

00:46:18.000 People were saying that he was gonna do a proper withdrawal.

00:46:22.000 The general argument was, we're not gonna get an overnight withdrawal, you can't do it, but he's gonna wind this thing down, get our troops back, anti-war candidate, everyone's mad about the war, and I'm like, oh, okay, and I could look and see what his policies were all about and see what he was talking about.

00:46:35.000 Kamala Harris and Tim Walz don't have anything.

00:46:37.000 I don't know what they represent or what they will do.

00:46:41.000 And I think that's how they want it, right?

00:46:43.000 She doesn't want to have to answer any questions at any time.

00:46:45.000 She doesn't want to be glued down to any promises because she doesn't have a vision for the country.

00:46:51.000 She's not a strong leader.

00:46:52.000 She's not a strong personality. 0.61

00:46:54.000 I think this also might speak to some sort of discord within her campaign because one of the fascinating things about being like Hey, we're, you know, however many days out, we're gonna throw Kamala in now, is that she inherited the Biden campaign, meaning a lot of his volunteers and staffers, but then also brought in her own support staff.

00:47:12.000 Like, they actually might, for all we know, be in a room every night fighting about the policies because she was staffed with even more progressive people than Biden was.

00:47:22.000 And so they don't know what to present to the people because there is no plan.

00:47:26.000 There's just chaos and fighting.

00:47:27.000 Yeah.

00:47:28.000 And her staff, didn't she have like a 90%? 0.84

00:47:31.000 She has lots of turnover, yeah. 1.00

00:47:32.000 So like her staff now might not be who she wants them to be.

00:47:35.000 They might just be people who got hired so they can't decide on what's going on.

00:47:39.000 And some reporting that I've heard is that she doesn't really have any like Policy advisors that have been with her for a long time.

00:47:46.000 You know, she's got her sister and she's got her husband and she's got her brother-in-law, but she doesn't have, you know, experts who she's been working with since her days in California.

00:47:55.000 She sort of is adrift politically.

00:47:57.000 It's just insane because you go to like the local people running for office, like these small offices, you know, just locally and they have websites and they have policies and they have what they want to do.

00:48:07.000 You want to be the leader of the free world, you have no policies on your website.

00:48:11.000 How do people not get frustrated?

00:48:15.000 I would be frustrated if Trump had nothing.

00:48:18.000 Yeah, you expect more.

00:48:19.000 I mean, what's interesting is there was this New York Times reporter talking about how he had done on-the-ground interviews with Harris Wall's volunteers in Nevada, and they were being told—Nevada, Nevada, don't come for me—they were being told, don't focus on policy, just focus on Vibe.

00:48:36.000 Do you think they could win this election on Vibe alone?

00:48:40.000 The summer is over, my friend.

00:48:42.000 I would hope not, but honestly, like, I feel like they won on vibe in 2020, you know?

00:48:48.000 But the vibe was not Trump.

00:48:49.000 Is that the vibe again this year?

00:48:51.000 It's always not Trump, I think.

00:48:53.000 Not Trump and a woman. 0.99

00:48:54.000 Oh yeah.

00:48:55.000 So it's like an edgy, cool, boss babe vibe.

00:48:57.000 Yeah.

00:48:58.000 Oh man.

00:48:58.000 I know.

00:48:59.000 And dumb people are easy to control. 1.00

00:49:01.000 Dumb populations are definitely easy to control. 1.00

00:49:03.000 Sure, but you have to motivate dumb people, right? 1.00

00:49:05.000 Like if the vibes are not enough. 0.99

00:49:08.000 I don't know if not Trump is enough anymore.

00:49:10.000 Yeah.

00:49:11.000 Because status quo is not great, right?

00:49:14.000 Nobody's buying boats per Theo Vaughn's cousin.

00:49:17.000 He said no one's buying boats anymore?

00:49:18.000 No, that was his... I'm parodying.

00:49:20.000 It was five years ago they were buying boats.

00:49:22.000 Yeah.

00:49:22.000 And he used it once the whole time probably.

00:49:24.000 Yep.

00:49:24.000 Like boats are.

00:49:25.000 The joke is the two greatest days in a boat owner's life, the day you buy it and the day you sell it.

00:49:31.000 I don't hear good things about boat ownership. 0.90

00:49:33.000 No, I know a couple boat owners and, you know, it's just pain in the butt. 0.66

00:49:36.000 Unless you live on it.

00:49:36.000 There's money out their pocket.

00:49:37.000 I feel like owning a boat is sort of like an achievement thing.

00:49:40.000 Like you've come to a point in your life where you're able to buy this boat.

00:49:43.000 But then also if you have come to a point in your life where you're able to buy the boat, you're probably working really hard and don't have that much free time.

00:49:47.000 Yeah, you have to scrub the bottom and do a lot of work.

00:49:49.000 Yeah, all kinds of work. 0.98

00:49:50.000 It's a pain in the butt. 0.98

00:49:51.000 No thanks. 0.95

00:49:52.000 Can't they invent something so that you don't have to do that?

00:49:55.000 Oh, like in the pools, they have a mechanical thing that goes around and cleans it, just like a rumba?

00:50:00.000 Or just like a material that is... Oh, that's... Okay.

00:50:04.000 The best way to do it is to just know someone with a boat.

00:50:06.000 Yeah, that's the way you do it.

00:50:08.000 Yeah.

00:50:09.000 That's why a lot of people who own boats charter them out.

00:50:12.000 So it's like, you own a boat, you're gonna use it a couple times a year, you have a charter company manage it, and then people rent it, and a pilot takes it out, or a captain takes it out.

00:50:20.000 Yeah, well, enough boat talk, I guess.

00:50:23.000 Let's jump to the next story.

00:50:24.000 So we have this from the Postmillennial.

00:50:27.000 LL Flooring shutters all 442 stores after filing for bankruptcy.

00:50:32.000 We've got this one, Macy's closing even more stores than originally planned from NJ.com.

00:50:38.000 Macy's will be shuttering 150 stores over the next few years, adding that it would close 55 stores in 2024 instead of the 50 stores that were projected.

00:50:48.000 Red Lobster to emerge from bankruptcy after closing dozens of locations.

00:50:53.000 This just keeps happening.

00:50:55.000 And so I bring this stuff up because we are watching, I mean, the L.L.

00:50:58.000 Floyd thing is crazy.

00:51:00.000 442 stores filing for bankruptcy.

00:51:03.000 Does this not, I mean, people are not building houses?

00:51:07.000 People need floors, don't they?

00:51:09.000 Well, and it's not even that.

00:51:10.000 It's one of Home Depot's biggest rifles.

00:51:13.000 So they're shutting this down.

00:51:14.000 Yet when we looked at the prediction model from Lickman claiming that Kamala Harris is going to win, short-term economy, It says that the economy is not in a recession.

00:51:24.000 True.

00:51:24.000 Long-term economy.

00:51:25.000 Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

00:51:30.000 True.

00:51:31.000 I know those are specific things to say that are true, but I kind of feel like the rate at which businesses are shutting, it's going to have a massive impact on people and people don't feel like the economy is good.

00:51:42.000 So it's a question of Does his model account for the alignment between whether the economy is officially good, meaning what he's basing this off of is people making statements.

00:51:54.000 They are saying, here's our numbers, we think it's good.

00:51:57.000 Does that correlate with how people actually feel?

00:52:00.000 Because you see these men in the street interviews, even Don Lemon, and people are like, the economy is bad, we're struggling.

00:52:08.000 I think with her not being the incumbent, I think his whole model is out the door.

00:52:14.000 Because she's just, it is different than what it usually is.

00:52:16.000 She got thrown in there.

00:52:17.000 She's not the actual president incumbent.

00:52:18.000 Yeah, but you could be a termed out president with your VP running.

00:52:22.000 So where I would consider this is, the weird shenanigans around Biden dropping out, not because he was termed out, but because his brain don't work right, that says something weird.

00:52:34.000 Like there's no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.

00:52:39.000 And the argument there is that They didn't have any votes at the convention, and that's what it means.

00:52:45.000 And I'm like, but does that matter?

00:52:46.000 We're asking how voters feel.

00:52:49.000 And based on whether or not there was a serious vote at the convention, you're arguing that's how voters would feel.

00:52:57.000 But maybe his point is this.

00:52:59.000 It still doesn't apply perfectly.

00:53:02.000 Maybe he's saying, no, no, if there really was contention, then the politicians and the delegates at the conventions would be split because they'd be worried about what that meant for them back home.

00:53:16.000 But these aren't congressmen and women. 0.99

00:53:18.000 These are delegates who were sent in, you know, to vote.

00:53:22.000 I don't know how he comes up with this stuff.

00:53:23.000 But back to the economic point.

00:53:26.000 We're looking about 2,000 employees will be without jobs just from LL flooring alone.

00:53:32.000 It already shuttered 100 locations to cut costs after being unable to obtain investors or find a buyer.

00:53:39.000 I don't know how we see all these stories and anyone can conclude the economy is good.

00:53:44.000 No, if you walk up to a random person and go, how do you think the economy is doing?

00:53:47.000 Like, how are you doing financially?

00:53:48.000 They're going to say it's horrible.

00:53:49.000 It's bad.

00:53:50.000 If you go, well, these stats show that it's, you know, it's not as bad or something.

00:53:54.000 They're not going to care.

00:53:55.000 Like you said, it's if they're voting on vibe, they're going to feel like the economy is awful and they're going to.

00:54:01.000 That's why I don't understand how we can have a vibe election.

00:54:03.000 Like the vibe is it's really expensive to be alive right now and people feel really uncertain.

00:54:09.000 I referenced this a while ago, but NBC polled young people and the majority said like the top issue for them was the economy.

00:54:17.000 So how do you offer them vibes in lieu of a secure financial future?

00:54:22.000 This just doesn't make sense to me.

00:54:23.000 You can't have reports of like, you know, you know all of these people who are affected by this.

00:54:28.000 Know someone who is voting this year.

00:54:30.000 They are probably voting themselves.

00:54:31.000 Do you think they're like, wow, the vibes are great out here.

00:54:33.000 I just lost my job.

00:54:35.000 I don't know what I'm going to do.

00:54:36.000 Really great economy.

00:54:37.000 Might as well put Harris back in.

00:54:39.000 That doesn't make any sense to me.

00:54:41.000 The vibes are- it's not gonna work.

00:54:43.000 That's what I'm saying.

00:54:44.000 I'm going 49th state landslide because everyone is- For Trump?

00:54:47.000 Yeah, let's go.

00:54:48.000 I don't know.

00:54:48.000 I mean, okay, I'm exaggerating.

00:54:50.000 Let's go.

00:54:50.000 I'm just saying I don't know if Trump wins.

00:54:54.000 I'd like him to win.

00:54:55.000 Sure.

00:54:55.000 I just don't know.

00:54:56.000 This is the weirdest election of my life.

00:54:59.000 Nothing lines up.

00:55:00.000 It is abject chaos.

00:55:03.000 Everything is weird.

00:55:04.000 It's even weirder than 2020 when he was in a lid and we had to do mail-in.

00:55:07.000 You know, we didn't see him.

00:55:08.000 This is just a whole different level.

00:55:10.000 Yep.

00:55:11.000 And we are 60 days out.

00:55:13.000 It's gonna be here before we know it.

00:55:15.000 60 days out and no policy on the website.

00:55:17.000 I can't imagine what the October surprise is gonna be.

00:55:20.000 I have to imagine it's going to be something absolutely crazy.

00:55:23.000 Look, we're two months out, and the prediction, Nate Silver's prediction model has Trump up.

00:55:28.000 I think some of the betting markets do, and some other models are favoring Trump.

00:55:34.000 There's no guarantee.

00:55:36.000 Something could happen.

00:55:37.000 I mean, two months ago, someone tried to kill him.

00:55:40.000 Yeah.

00:55:41.000 And we have the debate on Tuesday.

00:55:42.000 I think the debate, like, I can't think October Surprise or anything else.

00:55:46.000 I can really only think about the debate, because I think you get a whole new press cycle when people are deciding if Kamala is a defensible candidate.

00:55:54.000 I also think that, similarly to the debate with Biden, Trump can push so hard on the issues.

00:56:03.000 He can really hold her feet to the fire and be like, you haven't given anyone any specifics.

00:56:07.000 What's going on?

00:56:07.000 He's already been president.

00:56:08.000 He already has a record with the economy.

00:56:11.000 He has an actual plan.

00:56:12.000 He talks about it openly.

00:56:14.000 She can't really girlboss her way out of the explanation for what she's going to do.

00:56:19.000 I'm afraid that it's going to turn into sort of personal posturing and standoff and we'll get our, you know, excuse me, I am speaking moment or whatever she's going to try and pull out of her sleeve and that will derail the entire effectiveness of the debate.

00:56:33.000 You know, he...

00:56:35.000 I don't think the American people need to see the clash of personalities as they need to see the push for accountability.

00:56:41.000 When you don't even put policies on your website, you're saying to the American people, I'm not going to tell you what I'm going to do.

00:56:46.000 You just have to blindly trust me.

00:56:48.000 No one voted for her.

00:56:49.000 I mean, Dean Phillips came in second in the Democratic primary this year and they didn't even give him a shot.

00:56:54.000 That's interesting too.

00:56:55.000 Yeah.

00:56:56.000 Yeah.

00:56:56.000 I think right off the bat, right when they start, he needs to be like, oh, you're here.

00:57:01.000 I'm glad you're here.

00:57:01.000 Nobody has been able to get a hold of you and been able to talk to you.

00:57:05.000 So just right off the bat, he needs to push how she isn't a strong leader because you're the vice president right now and you're not answering our questions. 0.98

00:57:14.000 Like, he needs to be strong enough.

00:57:15.000 He should bring her a bag of Doritos.

00:57:17.000 Like, I got these from Sheetz.

00:57:19.000 No, because the thing is, if he does any of that, the media is primed to attack Trump.

00:57:23.000 And so they're going to be like, he talked down to her and she looks so strong standing up to him.

00:57:27.000 Like, he doesn't need to push any personal attacks.

00:57:30.000 He doesn't need to be on the offensive on anything other than policy.

00:57:34.000 He just needs to say over and over again, why can't you answer questions about the border?

00:57:38.000 What are you going to do?

00:57:39.000 How come your economic plan is just to copy mine?

00:57:41.000 What are your original ideas on this?

00:57:43.000 Can you explain to me how you differ from Biden, who has done a bad job?

00:57:47.000 She's not going to be able to do it.

00:57:48.000 You're going to get a lot of like, well, and then a lot of shoulder shifting.

00:57:52.000 That's her signature move when she's about to make a point.

00:57:54.000 Shifts her whole body.

00:57:55.000 Yeah, in my opinion.

00:57:57.000 It doesn't need to be anything cutesy.

00:57:59.000 He just needs to get real answers.

00:58:01.000 She can't give them.

00:58:02.000 It doesn't need to be showy, but he needs to show that she doesn't want to talk.

00:58:05.000 And she hasn't.

00:58:06.000 Well, she wanted his mic to be on real bad.

00:58:09.000 Yeah.

00:58:10.000 It's funny because there's only one reason.

00:58:12.000 I'm speaking.

00:58:13.000 She's not going to get it.

00:58:15.000 She's gonna try to squeeze it in there, you know? 0.98

00:58:16.000 She might still do it. 0.95

00:58:17.000 It always reminds me of, like, a school teacher when I was here.

00:58:20.000 I'm talking.

00:58:22.000 I mean, it'll be funny if she does it anyway and Trump's just standing there, like, stone-faced, like, wait, what happened?

00:58:26.000 I'm sorry, you were speaking.

00:58:29.000 So she's gonna go to Pennsylvania, and she might already be there right now, doing, like, several days of debate prep for this, because it's in Philadelphia.

00:58:36.000 And I just wonder, if you're Kamala's handlers, like, what advice are you giving her right now?

00:58:40.000 Are you giving her rational advice?

00:58:42.000 Because I think a lot of the people around her are, like, Go full girl boss. 0.70

00:58:46.000 Like, this is a moment for feminism. 1.00

00:58:48.000 You know, wear your pantsuit and put your hand in the air and say, excuse me, I am speaking.

00:58:53.000 But then someone else is going to know that that actually pulls terribly with a lot of Americans.

00:58:58.000 Like, it doesn't look strong.

00:59:00.000 It wasn't a good look for Hillary. 1.00

00:59:01.000 No.

00:59:02.000 I think they're going to have her.

00:59:03.000 I think the reason she needs so many days to debate prep is because she's not good just off the cuff. 1.00

00:59:08.000 She needs to memorize things.

00:59:09.000 So I think she's You know, memorizing hard, because I think the more people see of her unscripted, the less they like her.

00:59:17.000 And so she needs to be ready to, you know, just have something ready to go memorized.

00:59:22.000 Yeah.

00:59:23.000 Which is, again, interesting.

00:59:23.000 Like, if Trump can spar a little bit and be like, well, tell me right now, you know, if the question is about the economy and he can ask for a specific detail, I don't think she's prepared to speak candidly.

00:59:33.000 I think you're right.

00:59:35.000 Give me specifics.

00:59:36.000 That's what he should say, too.

00:59:36.000 Give me specifics about this, about that.

00:59:39.000 You know he's going to ask her, why haven't you done it already?

00:59:43.000 Which is a great question!

00:59:44.000 It's a wonderful question.

00:59:46.000 She's got to have an answer.

00:59:47.000 What are you going to say?

00:59:48.000 She has no power? 1.00

00:59:49.000 She insisted that her name be front and center for the last three and a half years, and then she's going to back off to, well, I was oppressed by the white man who put me on the ticket?

00:59:58.000 Like, that doesn't make any sense.

00:59:59.000 I was burdened by what was.

01:00:00.000 I'm unburdened by that guy now.

01:00:02.000 Yeah.

01:00:03.000 I mean, that may be her argument, that Joe has his own policy plans and mine are different.

01:00:09.000 That's great if they're different, but tell us what they are.

01:00:12.000 We'd love to know.

01:00:13.000 That's it.

01:00:13.000 And then she's going to say, I'm going to give tax cuts to the middle class.

01:00:17.000 And I want to work on grants and developing home ownership plans.

01:00:25.000 She's gonna say, well, I have a vision for an opportunity economy.

01:00:28.000 Right.

01:00:28.000 Because, you know, when my mom was raising me and then divert completely into an irrelevant personal story that she thinks makes herself... That's memorized.

01:00:35.000 That's memorized, and she thinks makes herself looks likable.

01:00:37.000 And she yelled, freedom!

01:00:38.000 So that's huge.

01:00:40.000 She loves America.

01:00:40.000 She'll be using the finger pointing.

01:00:43.000 Yes.

01:00:44.000 And the shoulder shifting.

01:00:45.000 And a pantsuit.

01:00:45.000 Now I'm gonna think about that.

01:00:46.000 Yeah, I'm gonna watch for that now.

01:00:47.000 Yeah.

01:00:48.000 I think she should wear a dress. 1.00

01:00:49.000 I think that would be the boldest thing that she could do.

01:00:50.000 So far, she's pantsuits only.

01:00:53.000 Is she?

01:00:54.000 Yeah?

01:00:54.000 As far as I can see, yeah.

01:00:55.000 I never see photos of her in anything about a pantsuit.

01:00:57.000 Because she's a lady lawyer. 1.00

01:00:59.000 Why can't it just be a suit?

01:01:00.000 Why can't it just be a pantsuit?

01:01:02.000 Like men wear suits.

01:01:02.000 Why is it no?

01:01:03.000 I know I'm off topic.

01:01:04.000 Because women can have like a blazer and a skirt that go together. 1.00

01:01:07.000 Okay.

01:01:07.000 Is that a suit?

01:01:09.000 It's like a... I think they call them skirt suits and pantsuits, but I don't really know.

01:01:12.000 I think they feel more powerful in a suit than a dress.

01:01:14.000 In a man.

01:01:14.000 Dresses are degrading, so.

01:01:16.000 Yeah.

01:01:17.000 Well, there may be an October surprise.

01:01:18.000 Here's the story from KCTV5.

01:01:22.000 First human case of bird flu confirmed in Missouri.

01:01:29.000 So there you go, ladies and gentlemen, as of today.

01:01:31.000 Jefferson City, Missouri.

01:01:33.000 The first human case of bird flu has been detected in Missouri.

01:01:36.000 On Friday, the CDC confirmed a human case of avian influenza, AH5.

01:01:42.000 H5 bird flu was found by the Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services.

01:01:46.000 The DHSS said the risk of sustained transmission of infection among the general public remains low.

01:01:51.000 The organization said a patient was hospitalized on August 22nd, and additional testing showed a tested specimen for the individual was confirmed as bird flu.

01:02:00.000 So what is bird flu?

01:02:01.000 It's like 40 or 50?

01:02:02.000 What's the mortality?

01:02:04.000 Is it 60%?

01:02:05.000 I was looking it up and I couldn't find any real stats on it.

01:02:08.000 I know that bird flu mortality is massive.

01:02:11.000 It's like 50%.

01:02:11.000 It's up there.

01:02:13.000 Yeah, they say the disease is primarily found in wild birds and poultry and has recently been seen in dairy cows and other animals.

01:02:19.000 The first case in Missouri is the 15th case of bird flu reported in the U.S.

01:02:23.000 in 2022 and the 14th in the country this year.

01:02:27.000 Sixty among humans.

01:02:28.000 Sixty percent.

01:02:29.000 That's what I thought.

01:02:30.000 So here's a question for you.

01:02:32.000 Bird flu really, let's say bird flu starts breaking out, like a human strain.

01:02:36.000 It's in a human.

01:02:38.000 So the possibility it's already jumped to other humans is, it exists.

01:02:43.000 You know, it's like they catch the one person and they're immediately gonna be like, who are you with?

01:02:46.000 Friends and family, and then we're gonna monitor them for symptoms.

01:02:49.000 Let's say we actually end up with several hundred thousand people having this, which means the virality factor is gonna be exponentially growing.

01:02:59.000 Visually, you will be seeing people who are dying.

01:03:03.000 Would you stay home?

01:03:06.000 To do what?

01:03:07.000 Well, like, let's say... Like COVID?

01:03:09.000 No, no, let's say, first question.

01:03:12.000 Government comes out and says, we're not going to mandate anybody stay home.

01:03:15.000 Here's a news report on what's currently going on outside.

01:03:17.000 You decide for yourself.

01:03:18.000 Would you choose to go out or would you stay inside and just lock the door and wear a mask or something?

01:03:24.000 I gotta feed myself, so I have to go to work and do things.

01:03:27.000 So unless they're paying me money, then I will stay home.

01:03:30.000 That's what I'm saying.

01:03:32.000 They start doing all of the COVID funding stuff, but they say, go outside, do whatever you want.

01:03:36.000 Open your business, have fun.

01:03:39.000 60% mortality.

01:03:39.000 This is a question that Ian brought up during the lockdowns or during lockdown period.

01:03:46.000 He was like, You know, we were saying the lockdowns are wrong, the government should be allowed to do this, and he was just like, unless it's an airborne Ebola.

01:03:52.000 And I'm like, ah, it's actually an interesting point.

01:03:55.000 The severity of disease matters in whether or not we are willing to tolerate something.

01:04:00.000 Now, a lot of people would still say no, and those are the consensus.

01:04:03.000 A lot of people said no, no mandates, choice.

01:04:06.000 If you want to go out during an Ebola pandemic in your own country, like, you make that choice to do it, you're gonna get sick.

01:04:11.000 But we're talking like 60% mortality means, you know, what kind of penetration are we going to see of the virus?

01:04:22.000 And if it's 10 million people, you see 6 million dead.

01:04:25.000 And that's just 10 million people who catch it.

01:04:28.000 I think a lot of people aren't going to argue about lockdowns.

01:04:30.000 They're going to stay home.

01:04:32.000 It makes me wish they hadn't pulled this card during COVID, right?

01:04:35.000 I mean, COVID was not on the same level as bird flu and people lost trust in these institutions.

01:04:44.000 That's the biggest thing.

01:04:44.000 Like, I found 60 through Google, but if you heard a news report that was like, it's actually 65.

01:04:50.000 If there's any kind of discrepancy, then people are going to start to be like, You guys don't give us any information and this is just a repeat of before and that had devastating consequences.

01:04:58.000 Like, hopefully you would make a decision that's safe based on accurate information.

01:05:03.000 You know, maybe you would stay home.

01:05:04.000 Ebola for sure.

01:05:05.000 That one sounds real bad.

01:05:07.000 But the problem is that, like, we went into severe lockdown and got very, very inaccurate reporting on all of this stuff.

01:05:16.000 I mean, even years later, there was just all kinds of data that they were still combing through to try and categorize correctly.

01:05:22.000 Uh, and I just think that, like, that is a deep scar that Americans are not going to get over, even Americans who were compliant initially.

01:05:30.000 I know.

01:05:30.000 I think it's become like the boy who cried wolf where I'm like, I don't really, I don't want to listen to you anymore.

01:05:35.000 I don't trust you anymore.

01:05:36.000 So this, yeah, I'm.

01:05:39.000 Screw lockdowns.

01:05:40.000 I'm not, I'm not doing that.

01:05:41.000 I don't, I don't, I don't, I don't, I think, I think a lot of people might say something like, yeah, that they shouldn't be allowed to mandate it.

01:05:48.000 But if you're literally witnessing actual bird flu with 60% of people dying, people are going to stay home.

01:05:52.000 Yeah.

01:05:52.000 If you see it in your everyday life, right?

01:05:53.000 Someone, you know, someone, you know, you know what I mean?

01:05:55.000 Besides the news or who telling you, trying to tell you who it is, you're definitely, definitely staying home.

01:05:59.000 Or you're going to see people collapsing in the street at that rate.

01:06:02.000 Right.

01:06:02.000 If it's visually yourself.

01:06:04.000 Do you remember the travel restrictions?

01:06:05.000 Like, there were states that are like, if you're coming from the state, don't come in here.

01:06:08.000 I wonder if that would actually be the first step, if people would be open.

01:06:12.000 They would want to be able to move in their communities if the infection rate was low, but they would be like, New York has high rates of bird flu.

01:06:19.000 Get out of here.

01:06:20.000 You cannot come in.

01:06:21.000 And you would actually see more serious checks on that.

01:06:23.000 Because I think there are people that don't, like, you could see the logic.

01:06:26.000 If it's really dangerous, they don't want to risk getting infected.

01:06:28.000 On the other hand, They don't want to have to live in fear if actually their state is okay.

01:06:34.000 And it's just if it's that contagious and everyone's dying like how you're just gonna sit in your house forever and you're just gonna like you have to get out you have to get food you have to do something.

01:06:44.000 You'd have to be lucky.

01:06:44.000 You got to move out to, uh, hopefully you'd be living out in the rural areas when this happens.

01:06:48.000 Yeah.

01:06:49.000 Otherwise you're kaput.

01:06:50.000 Good luck.

01:06:50.000 I feel like everybody in a major city, we already saw them accept lockdowns.

01:06:54.000 Yeah.

01:06:55.000 You give them a bird flu and they're going to demand it twice over.

01:06:59.000 And then I think a lot of conservatives and libertarians will complain about the government mandates, but they're still going to abide by it for their own sake.

01:07:06.000 There's a big difference between COVID, which I mean, what was the mortality rate?

01:07:10.000 It was like 0.2 to 0.6 or something?

01:07:12.000 Tiny tiny.

01:07:12.000 Or less than that.

01:07:13.000 It might have been like 0.02.

01:07:14.000 At the beginning, they didn't know.

01:07:15.000 That's what I thought.

01:07:16.000 0.0234.

01:07:16.000 Yeah, it's like double that of the flu right now, which means most people probably... You know, when I had it, it was extremely bad.

01:07:24.000 It was worryingly bad.

01:07:27.000 And I tried to go to the hospital.

01:07:30.000 Bird flu at 60% mortality? 0.99

01:07:32.000 Holy crap. 0.95

01:07:33.000 Well, thank you. 0.92

01:07:36.000 Understand what 60% mortality means, too.

01:07:38.000 That means 99% for people over a certain age and under a certain age.

01:07:43.000 Wasn't there bird flu a while back, like 10-something years ago?

01:07:47.000 Longer than that, there was a big outbreak of avian flu back in the day.

01:07:51.000 Yeah, but not with humans.

01:07:53.000 And this is the first case of H5 without a known occupational exposure of sick or infected animals.

01:08:00.000 So this is like, they're not with animals, they're not near infected people, somehow this person got it.

01:08:05.000 So that's a little scary too.

01:08:07.000 And also at least social security will be saved in the future if this thing happens.

01:08:12.000 Terrifying.

01:08:12.000 Yeah.

01:08:13.000 I'd want to know where the 60% comes from too.

01:08:16.000 Yeah.

01:08:17.000 Like I said, that was the first thing that came up on Google.

01:08:19.000 Don't use it as like a complete resource.

01:08:21.000 So this, and I want to show a clarification.

01:08:24.000 They're saying the first case in Missouri, and I think they titled this a little poorly.

01:08:30.000 First human case of bird flu in Missouri confirmed.

01:08:33.000 That's what it should say.

01:08:34.000 Because the way they wrote it makes it seem like it's the first time someone in the U.S.

01:08:37.000 has gotten it, but we have this from the CDC.

01:08:39.000 13 total reported human cases in the U.S.

01:08:44.000 I don't know what would be accomplished by Like, I guess if bird flu happens, it happens.

01:08:51.000 I don't know how someone makes bird flu happen.

01:08:53.000 The thing is, I'm actually more concerned about the listeria outbreak that's been found in- Oh, deli meat?

01:08:59.000 Yeah, which is something a lot of people consume.

01:09:01.000 There have been deaths from it.

01:09:03.000 It affects Americans across the country.

01:09:06.000 Why do we need to whip up a pandemic out of bird flu?

01:09:08.000 Why can't we talk about, like, our food safety in this country?

01:09:14.000 But for some reason, like, listeria outbreaks aren't as interesting to the mainstream media?

01:09:18.000 I haven't heard about it.

01:09:19.000 It's big!

01:09:20.000 It's a really big deal.

01:09:21.000 Boar's Head has recalled tons of food.

01:09:23.000 I love Boar's Head.

01:09:24.000 No, I did not know.

01:09:25.000 See, it's not that big of a deal.

01:09:27.000 Wouldn't you want to know that now?

01:09:28.000 Like, when you're in the grocery store, there is a higher risk right now that you would get listeria than you would get bird flu.

01:09:34.000 And everyone goes to the grocery store.

01:09:36.000 Yeah, check this out.

01:09:36.000 First wrongful death lawsuit filed in Boar's Head listeria outbreak.

01:09:41.000 57 victims in 18 states have tested positive for listeria poisoning.

01:09:45.000 So what does that do when you get listeria?

01:09:47.000 88-year-old Gunter Morgenstein bought Borsad liverwurst.

01:09:52.000 After eating it, became ill.

01:09:55.000 Then he died after 10 days in the hospital from a brain infection caused by Listeria bacteria, an illness that was confirmed to be linked to the contaminated Boar's Head products, the AP reported.

01:10:06.000 Yo, that's crazy.

01:10:07.000 So far, what, at least 57 people in 18 states have become sick and 9 have died from this.

01:10:14.000 I always heard when I was pregnant not to eat deli meat because of listeria.

01:10:18.000 Yeah.

01:10:18.000 And so I wonder if it's not always super bad, but... I think it comes reasonably often bad.

01:10:24.000 Yeah.

01:10:25.000 I think it's like that is one of the food products that's most prone to it, but like there's a confirmed outbreak in the U.S.

01:10:30.000 right now.

01:10:30.000 That seems really bad.

01:10:31.000 And like the symptoms are fever, vomiting, like all sorts of gastroenterological stuff.

01:10:35.000 But, you know, that comes with the risks of like severe dehydration.

01:10:38.000 If you have any other medical injuries, if you're immunocompromised, like the stuff that they talked about with COVID, But also worse because it could be in your sandwich.

01:10:48.000 That seems rough to me.

01:10:50.000 Why don't we talk about this more?

01:10:51.000 I used to write a lot about recalls for Scanner, like when products would get recalled, because I just think it's really something that impacts people day to day, but also for some reason just never gets the coverage.

01:11:04.000 We'd rather talk about, you know, mpox, which only affects a certain, you know, group of people right now, whereas anybody could potentially be exposed to contaminated food.

01:11:14.000 It's the vibe.

01:11:15.000 This vibe isn't as exciting.

01:11:16.000 Look, it's not sexy.

01:11:18.000 Listeria does not sell.

01:11:19.000 It's not very bright.

01:11:22.000 Jason Hutchinson superchatted a good point.

01:11:24.000 He says that 60% mortality would burn out too fast.

01:11:27.000 This is the issue with why Ebola doesn't spread as crazily as people might fear.

01:11:35.000 The disease is so brutal that people get terrified, it debilitates, it disables the individual so they can't spread it.

01:11:43.000 And the most successful viruses are like the common cold, which is actually a whole bunch of different ones, but it's because the symptoms are super mild and people might be like, I don't know, I've got the sniffles, I don't want to stay home, and they go out and they infect everybody.

01:11:55.000 But if you're seriously ill and throwing up and can't move, you can't leave your house, you're not infecting anybody.

01:12:02.000 That doesn't make sense, Jason Hutchinson.

01:12:04.000 It's a good point.

01:12:05.000 That could be another reason why COVID was more widespread.

01:12:08.000 Aside from being novel, it was serious with its mortality was I think twice that of the flu.

01:12:15.000 But enough to where people might be like, it's just a cough.

01:12:17.000 I'm fine.

01:12:18.000 And then wasn't it like you're asymptomatic for a while when you were spreading it?

01:12:21.000 It didn't hit you right away.

01:12:22.000 Yep.

01:12:23.000 You carried it around and then you pass it on to your buddies.

01:12:25.000 Yeah, that's crazy.

01:12:28.000 I don't know, man.

01:12:28.000 These are... What is happening to the world?

01:12:31.000 Is the simulation breaking down?

01:12:33.000 Are we done?

01:12:34.000 Because too many weird things are happening all at once.

01:12:37.000 It's just like, slow down, planet.

01:12:39.000 Jeez.

01:12:39.000 We're moving on.

01:12:40.000 Arc 2 or like Arc 3, you know?

01:12:42.000 Different arc system.

01:12:44.000 The season finale is coming up?

01:12:45.000 Yeah, because we have the nothing industrial revolution, technology. 0.70

01:12:48.000 Let's see what's going to happen.

01:12:51.000 That's the October surprise.

01:12:52.000 The October surprise is that like a giant face appears in the sky and it's just like, it was a game the whole time.

01:12:58.000 Buh-bye! 0.86

01:12:58.000 And then that's it. 0.86

01:12:59.000 We just blink out of existence.

01:13:01.000 We're gone.

01:13:02.000 I don't know, man.

01:13:04.000 I hope not.

01:13:05.000 I don't know, man.

01:13:06.000 I like I want to live a little bit longer.

01:13:08.000 Yeah.

01:13:08.000 All right.

01:13:09.000 Well, let's jump to this story.

01:13:11.000 Alan Dershowitz, prominent attorney and lifelong Democrat, leaves the Democratic Party.

01:13:16.000 How can this be the case?

01:13:18.000 Why?

01:13:19.000 He's a lifelong Democrat.

01:13:20.000 He's announced his departure from the Democratic Party.

01:13:22.000 He's a prominent figure.

01:13:23.000 This is VIN News.

01:13:25.000 Are there better sources on this one?

01:13:26.000 What is this?

01:13:27.000 Let me check out the one I pulled up.

01:13:29.000 VIN News.

01:13:29.000 I mean, yeah, I heard of this too.

01:13:32.000 And so Dershowitz announces he's leaving the Democratic Party.

01:13:39.000 Is there more news to that?

01:13:40.000 Actually, I don't see any other sources.

01:13:44.000 Does he have a tweet about it?

01:13:44.000 Well, apparently in 2016, he threatened to leave the the Democratic Party if Keith Ellenson became the chair.

01:13:53.000 So I guess there's a video of it.

01:13:54.000 There were no fine people at the debate, standing outside of the convention center and screaming, Hamas will win. 1.00

01:14:04.000 Screaming, we are all Hamas.

01:14:06.000 Screaming, there was nothing wrong with October 7th.

01:14:09.000 What's wrong with October 7th?

01:14:11.000 Uh, somebody said, uh, no, there aren't fine people and they don't make fine points.

01:14:15.000 And so I was disgusted at the Democratic National Convention.

01:14:19.000 Absolutely disgusted.

01:14:20.000 We're speaking with Harvard Law professor emeritus Alan Avi Dershowitz.

01:14:25.000 So are you ready to leave the Democratic Party?

01:14:28.000 Democratic Party.

01:14:29.000 I am no longer a Democrat.

01:14:30.000 Wow, okay.

01:14:31.000 I am an independent.

01:14:32.000 I'll decide who to vote for at the last minute based on totality of the circumstances.

01:14:37.000 I want to see how they deal with Iran.

01:14:40.000 I want to see how they deal if Iran attacks the United States.

01:14:43.000 I want to encourage the current administration to support Israel.

01:14:47.000 So I'm not revealing my vote until, you know, maybe November 1st.

01:14:52.000 Great to hear all the information, all the evidence, but I am no longer a member of the Democratic Party.

01:14:57.000 When did you resign the Democratic Party?

01:14:59.000 Well, gradually over time.

01:15:02.000 I think a lot of things pushed me in that direction.

01:15:07.000 Kamala Harris's failure to comply with her constitutional obligation to preside over the The Israel thing's really interesting, too, with how crazy everything is. 0.77

01:15:25.000 I don't understand the political parties.

01:15:30.000 Dershowitz is saying he's not a Democrat anymore because these protesters outside are praising Hamas, condemning Israel.

01:15:41.000 Kamala Harris tries to play both sides in this debate. 1.00

01:15:44.000 They've tried to court the anti-Israel left.

01:15:48.000 Is the right for Trump going to end up being overwhelmingly pro-Israel?

01:15:55.000 He's saying his Democratic Party is an independent, so he's certainly not going to be voting for Kamala.

01:15:59.000 He said she irked him.

01:16:01.000 Is he going to vote for Trump?

01:16:03.000 Is any candidate sufficiently pro-Israel at this point for anybody?

01:16:07.000 For Democrats or Republican voters who are pro-Israel?

01:16:10.000 I don't understand.

01:16:12.000 I think when you think of pro-Israel, you think more of a conservative than a Democrat.

01:16:16.000 Especially now, for sure.

01:16:17.000 Especially now, and just seeing all the things that they're saying.

01:16:21.000 I don't know. 0.94

01:16:22.000 Just like the vibe of the Democratic Party is so extreme and violent and gross.

01:16:26.000 I feel like it's kind of a similar thing of when people ask me, why are you not a feminist? 0.99

01:16:31.000 It's like, feminists seem miserable and angry. 1.00

01:16:34.000 And I don't know. 0.96

01:16:35.000 I feel like he gets the same feelings from those people.

01:16:37.000 And he's like, I can't, I can't be part of this.

01:16:39.000 I don't want to be part of this.

01:16:41.000 There's a viral video where some guy walked up to these protesters, like there's two guys in a car and the American hostage was killed.

01:16:51.000 And the guy driving says that the guy deserved it.

01:16:54.000 It's like, this is a guy who was at a music festival, had no idea what was going on, and gets kidnapped and killed.

01:16:58.000 And there's a guy in a car.

01:17:00.000 I guess it was in New York, I'm not sure where it was, I saw this video.

01:17:03.000 It is insane to me that Kamala Harris would try to placate these individuals.

01:17:07.000 Like, for what reason are you doing this, and what do you hope to gain?

01:17:09.000 I don't know, man.

01:17:13.000 It sounds like what Dershowitz is saying is that voting for Trump is the pro-Israel side.

01:17:17.000 But there's a lot of people on the right who do not like Israel and who have said they would vote for Kamala if Kamala came out as anti-Israel.

01:17:26.000 So then it's like, what is this?

01:17:29.000 Is the DOJ also anti-Israel?

01:17:32.000 Is the Deep State opposed to Israel?

01:17:34.000 Donald Trump represents the anti-establishment candidate?

01:17:37.000 I honestly can't figure this one out.

01:17:38.000 There's a tweet in April that he would leave the DNC if they cut funding to Israel.

01:17:44.000 And so I think this is just this ideological battle that is more prominent on the Democratic side of the aisle than it is on Republicans.

01:17:53.000 There are Republicans who feel strongly about Palestine or Israel or whatever.

01:17:58.000 You know, it's not to the extent that Democratic voters do.

01:18:02.000 And they, you know, Biden and Harris have both failed to message effectively because you have to take a definitive stance.

01:18:09.000 I don't think that there might be some kind of compromise you could work out between these two sides, but I just really don't think so.

01:18:16.000 And so everyone ends up unhappy and you get people who are like, well, this is my issue.

01:18:21.000 This is the thing that I will stake my vote on.

01:18:23.000 Hasn't Trump said that he's like the most pro-Israel president?

01:18:27.000 Yes, he did.

01:18:27.000 If anyone's gonna, you know, support Israel, it'd be definitely Trump.

01:18:31.000 This is what I find absolutely wild.

01:18:33.000 The Democrats absolutely are not the most pro-Israel, though I certainly think the deep state behind them is going to be pro-Israel. 0.86

01:18:40.000 It's weird that... I think if Democrats win, they're going to be funding Israel for sure.

01:18:46.000 They have no place.

01:18:47.000 I think if Donald Trump wins, he's going to be funding Israel for sure.

01:18:50.000 So it's like almost just the Israel thing is a foregone conclusion, but Dershowitz backing with the Democratic Party over this, it's kind of just like, okay, I guess.

01:19:00.000 There are issues where the deep state and Trump and these factions are at odds, and it certainly is not Israel.

01:19:07.000 I think no matter who you vote for, you're getting a well-funded Israel.

01:19:10.000 That's not going to change.

01:19:11.000 Interestingly, though, the Republicans don't want to fund Ukraine.

01:19:14.000 Which is much more interesting.

01:19:16.000 They've been getting a lot more money.

01:19:18.000 So I wonder what happens if Republicans win and what happens with Ukraine conflict.

01:19:23.000 Yeah.

01:19:25.000 Do you remember at that town hall that Trump did and she was like, Caitlin, what's her name, was pushing him about the Ukraine conflict and Trump eventually was like, I just don't want people to die.

01:19:35.000 Right.

01:19:35.000 I just want it to be over.

01:19:36.000 Like, it is interesting that you could be an anti-war voter and ultimately look at Trump and be like, he's more likely to end war.

01:19:44.000 So if you, I mean, logically to me, like if you were like pro ceasefire, you want the hostage return, you want a complete ceasefire.

01:19:51.000 Seems like Trump would be the better negotiator because Biden's had all this time, he hasn't done anything, and Kamala won't commit to it.

01:19:57.000 I wonder, man.

01:19:59.000 At this point in everything, I'm not even convinced that a vote for Trump is, like I was saying earlier in the show, is going to end war.

01:20:07.000 Like, I think we're entrenched to this point.

01:20:10.000 I don't know how you recover or how you de-escalate from Ukraine invading Russia.

01:20:15.000 Like we gave them too much money and assets to just stop them, to take it away from them right away?

01:20:20.000 I mean... They have it, so they're using it.

01:20:22.000 I don't know if you need to say too much, we gave them money and resources, right?

01:20:25.000 Okay, yeah, yeah, maybe not too much, right, sure.

01:20:26.000 And so, with Ukraine invading Russia, what...

01:20:31.000 I find it substantially more difficult for Donald Trump to come in and negotiate an end to this, especially if Putin is utilizing the conflict to mobilize in his own country, that they've been invaded.

01:20:44.000 Trump's going to have a lot harder of a time going in and negotiating a stop to this because now it's not Russia invading Ukraine and giving anything up, it's Ukraine invading Russia.

01:20:52.000 Do you think that's why Zelensky did it?

01:20:53.000 Do you think that feeds into the timing of why he moved into Russia now, because he can see that time is running out?

01:21:01.000 Maybe it's to put the war in a position that can't be easily ended.

01:21:04.000 Yeah.

01:21:06.000 At this point, or I guess maybe the gambit is at this point, a negotiated end to the war, if Trump does win, is natural borders of Ukraine and Russia.

01:21:16.000 Maybe.

01:21:16.000 I just think if you're Zelensky, you make a lot of money on this, so you don't want it to be settled quickly.

01:21:21.000 You need it to last a little bit longer.

01:21:25.000 Yeah, but what's the point of making money if you don't have a country?

01:21:28.000 I don't really think that's what he cares about, but I'm also very cynical.

01:21:31.000 Like, after all of this, you think he moves somewhere else?

01:21:33.000 I think all their politicians who are stealing money can just bounce out somewhere.

01:21:37.000 Yeah, but Zelensky as the president of Ukraine, I don't know that there is a after this.

01:21:42.000 I mean, like, Afghanistan was never ending. 0.98

01:21:45.000 And it's still in conflict and chaos, though we're not there.

01:21:48.000 Like, the Afghanis are A lot of people who worked with the United States and translators, just there.

01:21:55.000 And a lot of them are dying and not getting evacuated or whatever.

01:22:00.000 Trump assumes that worst comes to worst, he'll live in exile in America where he'll be a highly paid speaker who will tour, you know, America talking about, you know, I don't know, being a strong leader and an actor.

01:22:11.000 Living on the cover of Vogue.

01:22:12.000 Living in exile.

01:22:12.000 Right.

01:22:13.000 Like there are options for him that wouldn't be true for Ukrainians who live on the ground in the middle of conflict.

01:22:20.000 I don't know how this conflict stops, even with Trump going in without him giving up Sevastopol.

01:22:25.000 I don't know.

01:22:25.000 Did we not give them all the money?

01:22:27.000 We said they're gonna get it, but we didn't send everything to them yet, correct?

01:22:31.000 If I'm not mistaken.

01:22:31.000 I think it comes and goes in waves.

01:22:33.000 But we not track it either?

01:22:35.000 We don't know where it goes?

01:22:36.000 Nobody knows.

01:22:36.000 Very true.

01:22:39.000 What a crazy system!

01:22:40.000 And you can ask Kamala Harris about that.

01:22:41.000 Again, ask her about what's your plan for that.

01:22:44.000 Again, you want to be in charge?

01:22:45.000 What is your specific plan for this?

01:22:48.000 I feel like she keeps everyone distracted talking about abortion and talking about being a strong woman and that kind of stuff.

01:22:57.000 She's dodging questions about this, about foreign policy, and about the border.

01:23:01.000 For someone who really, really wants to be president, she's done very few interviews and given very few concrete promises.

01:23:07.000 That seems sketchy to me, you know, 60 days out from the election.

01:23:12.000 It's not like everything's peaceful and you're going to become the president.

01:23:15.000 You have a war on your hands, basically, and you, again, you have no policy.

01:23:19.000 You have nothing to say about that.

01:23:21.000 That's going to be really interesting on Tuesday.

01:23:23.000 Yeah.

01:23:25.000 What can she say about Ukraine?

01:23:28.000 I just don't get it.

01:23:29.000 You know, like the thing about it is, with these other wars we've had, we've had Cassius Belli.

01:23:36.000 We had 9-11.

01:23:37.000 That rallied everybody to war.

01:23:38.000 Ukraine, we've had nothing.

01:23:40.000 For what reason are we spending money in this place?

01:23:43.000 Russia's bad? 1.00

01:23:44.000 Remember what Kamala said?

01:23:46.000 Russia's a big country and Ukraine's a smaller country, and so it was bad that Russia invaded, and it's just like, okay, now explain to me why that's our business.

01:23:54.000 I suppose they could have.

01:23:55.000 I mean, like, I think people watch the show know.

01:23:58.000 Burisma, Energy, Gazprom, Qatar Turkey Pipeline, all that stuff.

01:24:01.000 Can they not just say that?

01:24:03.000 Can they not just say that Russia and its allies were trying to strangle out our means of conveying energy to our European allies, which was causing stagnation, recession, depression, death.

01:24:15.000 And when we tried to counter, they blocked us and it led to war.

01:24:20.000 I don't know.

01:24:21.000 That's too honest.

01:24:22.000 But what's wrong with being honest?

01:24:24.000 It's a good question.

01:24:25.000 Nothing.

01:24:26.000 I think it's great.

01:24:28.000 Maybe the end goal of all these blind zelts waving Ukrainian flags is that now they're so blindly marching in lockstep you can tell them the truth and they won't care about the morality of it. 1.00

01:24:39.000 Like, at this point, if the US government came out and literally said to the Democrats, we were trying to build a pipeline that would compete with Gazprom to reduce the cost of energy, because you see the riots that are happening in Europe, you see the cost of fuel, people were struggling, and Russia was using this against our allies, our neighbors, our friends, and when we tried to build a pipeline, we were blocked by Russia, who went to Syria and said, don't let them do this, which is anti-competitive.

01:25:09.000 And it resulted in an escalation of conflict because they're strangling us out energy-wise.

01:25:13.000 They could say that!

01:25:14.000 And Democrats would be like, yup, we gotta stop Russia.

01:25:18.000 I mean, that would be very nice if we got honesty out of our politicians.

01:25:21.000 Germany has issued a warrant for the arrest of a Ukrainian for blowing up Nord Stream 2.

01:25:26.000 Wait, when?

01:25:27.000 This was, I don't know, was it last month or something?

01:25:30.000 You guys, you saw the story?

01:25:31.000 Let me pull this one up.

01:25:34.000 Germany warrant...

01:25:37.000 Ukraine.

01:25:37.000 Yeah, here you go.

01:25:39.000 Politico.eu.

01:25:40.000 Germany.

01:25:42.000 We got it right here.

01:25:43.000 Germany issued arrest warrant for Ukrainian over Nord Stream bombing, reports say.

01:25:48.000 The suspect was able to evade the arrest warrant.

01:25:51.000 It was a Ukrainian who blew up the Russian Nord Stream pipeline. 1.00

01:25:56.000 This should be a debate question.

01:25:59.000 I feel like the voters have an attention span of this long.

01:26:02.000 They don't even, they don't care.

01:26:03.000 Yeah, but I'm saying like, why?

01:26:07.000 Why obfuscate the purpose for the conflict, like the Burisma scandal with Joe Biden?

01:26:14.000 Why obfuscate it?

01:26:16.000 Why I don't understand, like the Democrats are voting in lockstep and you'd probably

01:26:21.000 earn the respect of at least some people on the right if you told the real reason why

01:26:24.000 we were engaging in this.

01:26:25.000 Unless there's more to it.

01:26:27.000 And it's not just as simple as that.

01:26:29.000 Sure.

01:26:30.000 But at least they could say is that like they could at least talk about what's going on.

01:26:34.000 And then you'd end up with, like, it's not like these other countries don't know this already.

01:26:38.000 Who are they tricking?

01:26:39.000 I don't, I don't, I don't understand why they don't just give a reason for for engaging in this war.

01:26:45.000 Putin is Hitler and he's going to take Poland.

01:26:46.000 No, he's not. 1.00

01:26:47.000 That's ridiculous. 0.78

01:26:48.000 You shouldn't have invaded Ukraine, fine, I get it, but what is our involvement predicated upon? 0.68

01:26:52.000 Yeah, the only off-the-cuff reason I could give for Biden not wanting to make an energy-based argument for being in the war is because he ran with a very intense environmental policy.

01:27:05.000 And so, you know, he made a big deal out of like, you know, EVs or whatever else.

01:27:10.000 Like, there were American pipelines that people really didn't want him to sign off on.

01:27:14.000 And so if you're saying it's okay in Europe, then like, Maybe you would hurt your own base.

01:27:19.000 But I think mostly it's just, like, the joy of lying.

01:27:23.000 Like, there's a level of, like, we can't tell anyone why we would have a vested interest in anything for, quote-unquote, national security, even though we don't care about the border.

01:27:30.000 Maybe they don't want to admit to instigating unrest in Syria.

01:27:36.000 Well, we don't want to admit to anything.

01:27:38.000 We're always the good guys.

01:27:39.000 We never do anything wrong.

01:27:40.000 But everyone in the world knows.

01:27:41.000 It's not like it's a secret.

01:27:43.000 It's American history.

01:27:45.000 Irrelevant to us though, right?

01:27:47.000 And us being big government, not me specifically.

01:27:50.000 I honestly think Democrats would earn more votes if they were completely honest.

01:27:54.000 If they owned their morality and said outright, we want cheap energy into Europe so Europe's economy grows and it generates revenue for us.

01:28:03.000 People are going to be like, why is the U.S.

01:28:07.000 funding and helping Europe?

01:28:10.000 And if Western powers, like, they're our allies and we prefer them to win over Russia and China, and we want to get cheaper energy, and we want to basically disrupt the Russian economy and diminish them as a global power, and then after that we want to, you know, extend our bases across the region, like, you'd get independent voters being like, okay, I guess.

01:28:27.000 At least tell me why they're doing it.

01:28:29.000 Not a bad idea.

01:28:30.000 Some people don't care about the war, they care about the lying.

01:28:33.000 Yes.

01:28:34.000 I feel like that's their M.O.

01:28:35.000 too.

01:28:35.000 It's like they've been doing it for so long and they don't know how to be honest with you.

01:28:38.000 Yeah, that wouldn't be their vibe to do that.

01:28:40.000 Their vibe?

01:28:40.000 It wouldn't.

01:28:41.000 And... It's terrible that it is.

01:28:43.000 It would be refreshing.

01:28:44.000 It would be.

01:28:44.000 Even, like, for me, it would be refreshing to see that.

01:28:47.000 Yeah, right.

01:28:48.000 That's what I'm saying.

01:28:49.000 I would have way more respect than the weird, just not talk about it, you know.

01:28:55.000 It's like Trump with the guns and the oil.

01:28:59.000 He's protecting the oil to keep it and sell it.

01:29:01.000 When he was going on a helicopter and he asked them about the oil and guns over in Afghanistan.

01:29:07.000 I don't know, maybe the sad reality is the average person is not very... What's the right word I'm thinking of? 0.99

01:29:16.000 I'm not trying to say stupid, but... 0.98

01:29:21.000 Disinterested, in a sense. 0.94

01:29:24.000 Like, they don't care what the reason is, and so you can give them as basic a reason as possible and it's satisfying.

01:29:31.000 Yeah, Putin's the bad guy, that's why.

01:29:33.000 It's like, alright, whatever, I'm gonna go play football.

01:29:36.000 You know, I'm gonna go watch the game, I don't care.

01:29:38.000 I think having a vague explanation, like Russia is bad, blanket statement, without any details, works better if you decide ultimately to change your tactic, right?

01:29:46.000 Like if you were like, we have this one specific complaint, you know, energy, then as soon as Anyone can spot a way around it.

01:29:54.000 You don't, you have to end the war.

01:29:55.000 Whereas if it's just generally like they're the bad guys, then you can justify giving tons of money or making, you know, other decisions, admitting them to NATO, all this stuff.

01:30:06.000 Gives you more power because you can move around more.

01:30:08.000 It's flexible.

01:30:09.000 Man, I don't know.

01:30:10.000 I wonder if just... my whole life it's been war.

01:30:14.000 You know?

01:30:14.000 And this period where we've had this limited warfare that, you know, Ian references like Kissinger and stuff, it's anomalous to the world.

01:30:22.000 The world's just always at war.

01:30:23.000 Maybe, you know, being... acting like you can make it all stop and have world peace is just too naive.

01:30:31.000 I don't know.

01:30:34.000 I can't think of a time in my life where there was no war. 0.86

01:30:36.000 Well, the thing is I don't think that there could be a human society that didn't have any kind of conflict that results in violence, right?

01:30:46.000 Like think of the civil wars that are going on in Africa right now.

01:30:49.000 Like there's all kinds of tensions that we don't talk about on the scale.

01:30:52.000 We talk about Ukraine, Israel.

01:30:53.000 Obviously there's like bigger economic consequences to that.

01:30:57.000 I think we would want as many people on earth to get along and treat each other respectfully and peacefully, but ultimately the idea that we would live in a world with no violence at all is, you know, contrary to all of human history.

01:31:12.000 Well, of course.

01:31:14.000 I guess it's just a question of what happens when the U.S.

01:31:17.000 loses its hegemonic position.

01:31:19.000 Yeah.

01:31:19.000 Which feels like it's coming.

01:31:21.000 I think it's coming, and I think the sad part, too, about, like, I've never lived at a time where there wasn't war either, but I think our generations have become numb to it, where we see, oh, Ukraine invaded Russia, I don't care, okay, whatever, and you need to pay attention to that, because eventually it's, like, coming closer and closer.

01:31:38.000 One day you're going to wake up in a conflict and not know why if you're not paying attention.

01:31:42.000 Yep.

01:31:43.000 You can't become numb to it.

01:31:45.000 But my growing concern is just, what does the world look like?

01:31:52.000 We're looking at the end of the petrodollar.

01:31:55.000 BRICS nations having this convention to raise their own currency.

01:31:58.000 What does the world look like for the United States when the U.S. 0.81

01:32:01.000 loses this position?

01:32:02.000 And so, like, the analogy I gave in the past couple days is, you know, Trump's attitude is pull the car over, fix the brakes, change the tires, work on the engine.

01:32:12.000 And, you know, the Democrats scream, that'll put us, like, Russia and China are going to zoom past us.

01:32:16.000 We can't let that happen.

01:32:18.000 And so their attitude is slam the pedal to the metal and just take the car until the engine bursts.

01:32:23.000 And the nuts flying off and the doors falling off.

01:32:25.000 Maybe we'll win the race.

01:32:26.000 Yeah.

01:32:26.000 And then we can fix the car later or something.

01:32:28.000 Very short term sided, I feel like, whereas you have to think big on this, you have to think long term about this kind of stuff and think about like the next generations and your children and what what is the United States?

01:32:41.000 What does the world look like?

01:32:42.000 3040 years from now China taking over? 0.93

01:32:46.000 Belt and Road Initiative, colonial expansion into South America and Africa, the Chinese Communist Party having global hegemonic power and a unipolar Chinese Communist Party world. 0.68

01:32:56.000 Even with their population and everything failing?

01:32:59.000 I don't know.

01:32:59.000 It's like all these conflicting narratives.

01:33:02.000 It's just like, I don't know.

01:33:04.000 You know, it's wild.

01:33:06.000 And you think that no matter if Trump wins?

01:33:08.000 at this point with Ukraine invading Russia, I don't know if there's an easy answer for Trump

01:33:12.000 to de-escalate this. Certainly he can call Putin and say, we're going to walk things back, but now

01:33:16.000 Putin's going to be like, your country gave weapons to them and it invaded us, and then he's going to

01:33:21.000 have demands that Trump's not going to want to give into.

01:33:26.000 And then, at this point in the war, it does seem like restore the natural borders and end the 0.89

01:33:32.000 invasion from Russia.

01:33:34.000 Ukraine remains, retains its original positions.

01:33:37.000 Would have to be Trump's position based on, like, at this point with Ukraine invading Russia, how does Trump negotiate?

01:33:42.000 No, no, no, no, no.

01:33:43.000 We're going to pull all the Ukrainians back and give you more. 1.00

01:33:46.000 Like, how do you, how do you argue that?

01:33:48.000 No, Trump would have to say, Ukrainians are going to withdraw from the Russian territory and the borders will, yeah, take their original positions.

01:33:57.000 That's why I don't know.

01:33:58.000 What I can tell you this is, I don't know why we're involved in it.

01:34:02.000 It's always been a mystery to me.

01:34:03.000 I mean, like, I literally know.

01:34:04.000 Energy.

01:34:05.000 That's the real reason.

01:34:06.000 We want to shut, like, what do they call Russia?

01:34:09.000 It's a gas, they call it a gas station with snow or something?

01:34:12.000 I don't know.

01:34:12.000 There's some phrase for it.

01:34:14.000 But the West wants to basically shut them out.

01:34:17.000 And they want to control the flow of energy without interference from Russia.

01:34:21.000 You know, I think the reason why The U.S.

01:34:25.000 is under Obama and why they were so pissed at Trump.

01:34:31.000 China is the bigger threat in the bigger picture, but I think the strategy from NATO is to destroy Russia's economy, end them as a regional power, and then China falls like a paper tiger.

01:34:45.000 But if the U.S.

01:34:47.000 allows Russia to continue to control the energy into Europe, then Russia and China combined makes it more difficult for NATO to gain control of these other territories.

01:34:57.000 But don't get me wrong, you've got Australia and US forces gearing up for Taiwan, and the BRICS nation expansion, I don't see how this ends well.

01:35:04.000 And I will stress, all of this was going on well before Trump got elected.

01:35:07.000 Russia and China were planning on dumping dollars and these moves were happening.

01:35:12.000 So it seemed like no matter what, the war was inevitable, so long as the West refuses to give up this hegemonic power.

01:35:21.000 Well, definitely if we don't address China like the threat that it actually is. 0.98

01:35:25.000 Like, that's what's always bothered me.

01:35:27.000 I know that China and Russia have their own relationship and dynamic, but the way, the criticism of Russia is, to me, has always seemed far more intense than China, even though China has a huge influence on our country economically.

01:35:42.000 And for whatever reason, probably because we have a lot of, China has a lot of influence in American politics.

01:35:48.000 We just don't talk about it.

01:35:49.000 Yeah, we talk about Russia coming in and interfering with the election and everything, but they never talk about China.

01:35:56.000 They never talk about China interfering with anything.

01:35:59.000 And they are.

01:36:00.000 China's been cyberattacking the U.S.

01:36:01.000 for decades.

01:36:04.000 This was a huge story 10 years ago.

01:36:05.000 Yeah.

01:36:05.000 All right, we're going to Super Chat, so if you haven't already, would you kindly smash that like button, subscribe to this channel, share this with your friends, head over to TimCast.com.

01:36:11.000 Click join us to become a member and support our work directly.

01:36:16.000 Because, oh boy, dark days indeed.

01:36:19.000 I don't know where all this is going, man, but we got some news and we could use your support at TimCast.com.

01:36:24.000 Blave Kai says, yo man, I think Ana's gonna vote for Trump. 0.96

01:36:27.000 And dare I say, if she keeps pushing him, Genk will too.

01:36:31.000 Maybe.

01:36:32.000 You know, Anna was tweeting about Colorado and the gangs that took over.

01:36:37.000 And I'm not sure if this was her, but I think it was her making the point that the police had been warning about these gangs for like a year.

01:36:43.000 Then when the story comes out, these videos of the gangs taking over these apartments, these corporate news outlets are like, it's a lie.

01:36:49.000 It's not happening.

01:36:49.000 Tucker Carlson's pushing fake news.

01:36:51.000 And she's like, What?

01:36:53.000 Like you can just read the news report from last year.

01:36:55.000 What is this?

01:36:56.000 And this is the weirdest thing to me about the current state of where we are.

01:37:02.000 It's like there is some kind of chaos warp.

01:37:07.000 This is the way the media runs.

01:37:09.000 Like I said, Politico has got two stories at the same time.

01:37:11.000 Ukraine interfered in our election.

01:37:13.000 That claim is actually Russian disinfo.

01:37:15.000 They're accusing themselves of being Russian disinformation.

01:37:18.000 It's like maybe it's intentionally meant to be confusing.

01:37:21.000 I don't know.

01:37:24.000 All right, let's go!

01:37:25.000 Smallmouseinabigfield says, not first, not last.

01:37:28.000 Welcome to TimCast.

01:37:28.000 Hey, what up?

01:37:30.000 Techtyplatey says, beware of big avocado.

01:37:32.000 They're bigger than big cilantro.

01:37:34.000 Yes, but indeed, sir, avocados are based.

01:37:36.000 They're based AF.

01:37:38.000 Tim Brackett says, buy coffee and work out.

01:37:41.000 Right on.

01:37:44.000 All right.

01:37:46.000 Harlan the Human says, watched Ian Gaming as my TimCast pre-show today.

01:37:51.000 Well, how fun.

01:37:54.000 All right.

01:37:56.000 Jashabeam Kildon says, The Lotus Eaters podcast did a lovely bit about the Tenet debacle, and except for one of them almost calling you a donkey, it was completely positive.

01:38:07.000 You know, I don't know.

01:38:10.000 We'll have some developments next week, I suppose, but I don't know.

01:38:14.000 I probably shouldn't say too much considering, you know, what's going on with the ongoing investigation, but I've been thinking about this all day, and I feel conflicted on even talking about the Ukraine-Russia stuff, considering I actually feel kind of personally slighted by Russia.

01:38:33.000 Like, I'm quite pissed off, you know what I mean?

01:38:36.000 Like you didn't get any?

01:38:39.000 Like, they're effing with me.

01:38:41.000 Personally, me!

01:38:42.000 Like, I'm just some dude who, I don't want to be in the news, I want to mind my own business, I want to complain about the news, I want to talk about politics, I want to talk about polling numbers, but I don't want to have anything to do with, like, the actual internals, and they decide to screw me over in this regard, pisses me off to an extreme degree.

01:38:59.000 So I'm like, I'm kind of pissed off.

01:39:02.000 I don't know how else to put it.

01:39:03.000 And, uh, I blame Russia. 0.99

01:39:06.000 I don't know, I don't know, I'm, it's like, they, I don't know, they're fucking with me. 0.99

01:39:12.000 You know what I mean? 0.99

01:39:14.000 I don't know, it's fucking, shit, I'm just sitting here minding my own business trying to do a podcast about American domestic issues. 0.99

01:39:19.000 Right, just hanging out. 1.00

01:39:21.000 And then this shit drops. 0.99

01:39:24.000 I don't know what to say. 1.00

01:39:26.000 So it's, it's, it's fucked up. 0.99

01:39:28.000 It's pissing me off. 0.99

01:39:30.000 I don't know, man. 1.00

01:39:32.000 Maybe I'm just an idiot. 1.00

01:39:33.000 Whatever, call me what you want to call me. 1.00

01:39:35.000 Alright, let's go.

01:39:36.000 A lad who ate four dozen eggs says, you're lagging, bro.

01:39:39.000 Yeah, we were lagging.

01:39:40.000 I think it got worked out, though.

01:39:42.000 So I think we're good.

01:39:44.000 Jason Abbey says, your show is the best to share with lefty friends since you're evidence-based and usually avoid rhetoric and name-calling.

01:39:51.000 There are some people we call names.

01:39:53.000 Sometimes.

01:39:54.000 Yeah, but I probably say evil the most when I'm referring to people I don't like.

01:39:59.000 All right.

01:40:02.000 Radioactive Rat says, you could make a drinking game out of this morning's Culture War podcast with how often John Devaney said the word OK.

01:40:08.000 He was a cool dude, though.

01:40:10.000 So shout out.

01:40:10.000 He's got that movie City of Dreams, which is about human trafficking, and they're pulling the movie out of theaters.

01:40:16.000 Very weird.

01:40:18.000 The dude seems very nice, and he's very emotional about this ending trafficking stuff, but I don't think he's super political.

01:40:24.000 So I don't think he quite understands the dynamics that are at play in the political space as to why the theater is maybe trying to remove a movie about human trafficking, which is what he described as a call to action to get people to stop the trafficking, you know?

01:40:37.000 It's sort of rushing to have someone that is like, hey, I just think human trafficking is bad.

01:40:41.000 No political angle.

01:40:42.000 It's crazy that that's become a political thing.

01:40:44.000 You say, oh, I made a movie about human trafficking.

01:40:47.000 I think it's possible.

01:40:47.000 political now. It's like, what does that say about...

01:40:49.000 I think we should just be universally against human trafficking.

01:40:52.000 Yeah, that should not be a political thing at all.

01:40:55.000 Agreed.

01:40:56.000 Sensei says, Tim, do you think that the Crowder Undercover Special had anything to do with

01:40:59.000 Trump sentencing pushback? I think it's possible. I think it's certainly possible. That was

01:41:07.000 seriously bad for them.

01:41:09.000 This is a DOJ public affairs in Southern District of New York being like, this case is bunk.

01:41:13.000 He's just layering things and rearranging things.

01:41:16.000 I mean, that makes it look really bad.

01:41:18.000 Him coming out and saying, I didn't actually mean it, doesn't help him out.

01:41:21.000 I feel like they're going to wait two, three months, and then they're going to let him go.

01:41:24.000 Like, this is them saying, you better say it's not true to save your job, and he's ultimately going to lose it anyways.

01:41:29.000 That's what I say.

01:41:30.000 Just stick to it.

01:41:30.000 Stick to it.

01:41:31.000 Would have been better.

01:41:32.000 Dougie J. Newcomb says, if your pending lawsuit ends up costing more than you can muster, would you consider selling the coffee shop to make up the difference?

01:41:38.000 No, what happens is you run out of money and it just stops.

01:41:43.000 You know what I mean?

01:41:43.000 Like, a lot of people engage in lawsuits, you run out of money, and then there you go.

01:41:48.000 Lawsuits are very, very difficult and extremely expensive.

01:41:51.000 So, hey, it is what it is.

01:41:54.000 Nicholas McPherson says, Hey TimCast team, my new book Fractured Sky launches September 9th, and I'd love a shout-out.

01:42:00.000 Kickstart pre-launch page is live.

01:42:02.000 Check it out.

01:42:02.000 Thanks and God bless.

01:42:06.000 Narwhal Games says, Did anyone else see that several high-ranking officials in New York were arrested?

01:42:11.000 Were they arrested or were they just raided by the feds?

01:42:14.000 These are the people attached to Mayor Eric Adams.

01:42:17.000 Oh, right, right, right, right.

01:42:18.000 I don't know if he's referring to someone up like the thing from earlier this week where one of Kathy Hochul's former aides was charged with being a foreign agent.

01:42:27.000 New York's had a rough week.

01:42:30.000 Yeah.

01:42:30.000 I'm not sure if they're talking about city or state, you know.

01:42:35.000 Yeah, plus you mentioned the Chinese spy, is that what it was?

01:42:37.000 Yeah, because that's like Hochul's office, that's the governor.

01:42:39.000 Right.

01:42:39.000 But then you could be talking about today with the people affiliated with Adams.

01:42:43.000 The Quartering says YouTube just banned another tenant creator, Taylor Hansen.

01:42:47.000 Are they going to purge everyone?

01:42:49.000 Yeah, Taylor Hansen's YouTube channel's gone.

01:42:51.000 He hadn't posted there in a year, but they deleted it.

01:42:54.000 It's gone!

01:42:55.000 It's deleted!

01:42:55.000 Which is interesting because yesterday he posted, you know, tenants over, I have to move to pursue new things.

01:43:01.000 I mean, because that's his career.

01:43:02.000 He's newly married.

01:43:03.000 And so you would think that his YouTube channel would then play into how he's going to support himself.

01:43:07.000 And that is now gone.

01:43:08.000 Yeah.

01:43:08.000 They give a reason?

01:43:11.000 Repeated violations of the community guidelines.

01:43:13.000 So.

01:43:14.000 I just don't believe that.

01:43:15.000 He nuked it out right.

01:43:15.000 You know?

01:43:16.000 Yeah, I don't.

01:43:17.000 I mean, the election's two months away and all of a sudden we're getting this cascade, you know?

01:43:22.000 Barely a Millennial says, is there any scandal regarding Harris-Waltz that would allow the left to accept a Trump win?

01:43:28.000 DNC wasn't too crazy, maybe post-election won't be either.

01:43:33.000 I don't think there's a scandal that would upset them.

01:43:37.000 The Right was upset when that stuff came out about Doug Emhoff and the end of his marriage.

01:43:45.000 He had this affair.

01:43:46.000 It seemed like he had gotten this woman who was both his kid's babysitter and also their school teacher pregnant.

01:43:52.000 It seems like that maybe has ended in an abortion.

01:43:56.000 That upsets conservatives, but I don't think it upsets Democrats the same way.

01:44:02.000 And especially if they're running a Trump will end our country and world, they'll be able to forgive a lot of social scandals.

01:44:10.000 Patriot Rob says, I'm going to laugh at Trump wins California and New York.

01:44:14.000 You mean if?

01:44:15.000 Or you're going to laugh at Trump?

01:44:18.000 Yeah, if.

01:44:18.000 I think you mean if?

01:44:20.000 I don't see Trump winning California and New York.

01:44:24.000 With Biden, there was a possibility he could have won New York for sure.

01:44:27.000 They had to get him out of there.

01:44:30.000 And they did.

01:44:32.000 There you go.

01:44:33.000 Jonathan says, I've seen one Harris sign in East Central Wisconsin.

01:44:37.000 Trump signs everywhere you look.

01:44:40.000 And please go up to the Harris signs if you can without, you know, going on anyone else's property and see if they are Harris wall signs or like I have really discovered ones that were Biden-Harris and they just cut Biden off because I think those are really funny and we should save them in memoriam.

01:44:55.000 William Kelly says the play from Trump's team should be, we're going to win, but let's show them the red wave that they fear.

01:45:01.000 No matter the polls, no matter the predictions, let's vote and show them.

01:45:04.000 Hear, hear.

01:45:05.000 Indeed.

01:45:06.000 If 2016 taught us anything, it was just ignore the polls and go vote.

01:45:11.000 Because also down ticket, like even if you think we're not going to win the White House, then you really, really want Congress and Senate to lean in your favor, to have your values.

01:45:19.000 Yeah, you don't want them getting all three.

01:45:22.000 A. Merrick says, Trump needs to make an emotional ad from an innocent guy Harris kept on death row, something that will tug at the heartstrings of people who vote with their feelings.

01:45:33.000 It's not a bad idea.

01:45:34.000 Yep.

01:45:35.000 A lot of people didn't like that when they heard about that.

01:45:37.000 Yeah, I think the full context of the story was that she was instructed by the feds to release a certain amount of inmates, and she tried stopping doing this so that she could use them to fight wildfires.

01:45:52.000 So it's like, well, I'm supposed to release these guys, but dollar an hour, life-threatening work is hard to come by.

01:45:58.000 Hard to get taken care of, actually.

01:46:00.000 Kamala Harris, pro-slavery. 1.00

01:46:03.000 Yep.

01:46:04.000 All right.

01:46:06.000 What is this?

01:46:08.000 Just because I'm freezing, has anybody else heard about Poder Latinx in Arizona?

01:46:13.000 Apparently it's a Democrat voter registration organization that's registering people outside of DMVs, saying all you need to register is a driver's license.

01:46:20.000 What else is going on?

01:46:22.000 Wasn't that the justification for, like Texas said, Was it Texas?

01:46:27.000 Arizona just had the the judge say that they can enforce the requirement that people show ID before vote or no proof of citizenship before voting in state-level elections.

01:46:38.000 And they caught like just today I think they caught like all 15 counties in Arizona had been registering non-citizens or doing something like that so again swing state really important.

01:46:50.000 You would call that election interference but Big7588 says, Germans tried to make a decoy airfield with mock planes. 0.74

01:46:57.000 The Allies dropped a fake bomb on it.

01:46:59.000 Is that true?

01:46:59.000 That's like an insult.

01:47:02.000 It's true?

01:47:03.000 Serge is saying yes.

01:47:06.000 Alright.

01:47:07.000 They dropped a fake bomb on it?

01:47:09.000 That's funny too.

01:47:10.000 A fake bomb?

01:47:11.000 Sloth says, what kind of primaries did the DNC have?

01:47:14.000 How did they not even smell what we all saw coming for months or years, the debate?

01:47:18.000 The people at the top lied to everyone for so long.

01:47:21.000 And the media was complicit.

01:47:23.000 That's the major thing.

01:47:24.000 Any media outlet that was like, Joe Biden's doing great.

01:47:26.000 Everything is fine.

01:47:27.000 They lied to you.

01:47:28.000 I mean, even if they didn't want to speculate on dementia, Alzheimer's, some of the stuff that other people have, they could have always been honest and said, his speech is slurred.

01:47:37.000 He is not the same energetic person before.

01:47:39.000 Instead, they just would cut up his speeches.

01:47:41.000 They wouldn't give full sound bites.

01:47:42.000 They pretended obvious gaffes weren't happening.

01:47:46.000 And that's what Harris did, too.

01:47:47.000 And that's why at the debate, Trump needs to say, I thought you said Biden was doing great.

01:47:52.000 Are you—were you lying about that?

01:47:52.000 He thought he was doing great.

01:47:53.000 Why'd you take his spot?

01:47:54.000 Yeah, why are you here if he—if what you said was true?

01:47:57.000 Again, just ask her.

01:47:58.000 Yeah.

01:47:58.000 No, it's a good one.

01:47:59.000 We gotta write down this list of things that Trump needs to press.

01:48:02.000 Kamala, on for specifics.

01:48:03.000 We haven't recorded.

01:48:04.000 Oh yeah, that's true.

01:48:05.000 We're live.

01:48:06.000 The Bonus Poll says, I just upped my TimCast membership from $10 per month to $25 per month.

01:48:12.000 Keep fighting the good fight, sir.

01:48:14.000 Thank you very much.

01:48:15.000 If you'd like to support our work, go to TimCast.com.

01:48:17.000 You can click sign up or join us on the website.

01:48:21.000 And that makes the show operate.

01:48:25.000 Stephanie Hill says, Hillary lost because no one wants Clinton's back in the White House. 0.85

01:48:29.000 Imagine the scandals.

01:48:30.000 Bill with nothing but time on his hands would have put Hunter to shame.

01:48:34.000 Yikes! 1.00

01:48:36.000 Well, I don't know.

01:48:38.000 Team Zeppelin says, Tim, I'm a pharmacist and you are wrong.

01:48:40.000 Carrots contain vitamin A, which your eyes use to make visual purple.

01:48:45.000 Is that what it is?

01:48:46.000 Which helps you see better at night.

01:48:47.000 Humpf. 0.61

01:48:48.000 Well, I know that's true, but I'm saying that they made up this story that they were improving their eyesight with carrots so that they could see the targets at night, which was silly.

01:49:00.000 Ryan Sargent says, Tim, look it up.

01:49:02.000 In 1980, U.S.

01:49:03.000 literacy was 99.5%.

01:49:06.000 2024 U.S.

01:49:06.000 literacy rate, 79%.

01:49:09.000 Wow.

01:49:10.000 So I'm right.

01:49:11.000 Something happened recently.

01:49:13.000 Nah, it's 44 years.

01:49:14.000 It's a public education system.

01:49:16.000 But I mean, it could be that we are literally seeing a decline from like, that would mean that in the 90s, it's probably around like 95% or something.

01:49:24.000 And so now it just genuinely feels like there's a lot of people who have no idea what's going on.

01:49:29.000 Yeah, it's crazy.

01:49:31.000 I don't understand how this is operable for the powers that be at all, unless it's a managed decline of the United States, the intentional destruction.

01:49:40.000 I think they moved the markers to see this was like public education.

01:49:43.000 I was just reading about this, but I don't want to quote it too intensely because I can't remember the specifics.

01:49:47.000 But you know, developmental milestones, I think it was the CEC, have changed them for children.

01:49:53.000 Like if they were supposed to say their first word by or like say a certain number of words by the time they were a year old, now it's something like 18 months old.

01:50:01.000 And so in some ways, like, maybe that's managed decline, but maybe that's just also this, like, general softening of our standards.

01:50:08.000 Like, they don't want anyone to feel as though they aren't striving to hit certain goals, and so they just lower all of the thresholds, not thinking about the consequences of doing that.

01:50:19.000 Dirty Dan Roberson says, I live in an old wooden sailboat in Alaska.

01:50:23.000 It's a fun life, but yes, a lot of work to keep the ship in shape.

01:50:27.000 Keep it the good work, team.

01:50:29.000 See, this is where I will concede I was wrong all those years ago when I said, a van down by the river.

01:50:34.000 What you really want to get is a catamaran.

01:50:36.000 Those things are awesome.

01:50:38.000 Yeah, they're a bit more stable.

01:50:39.000 They're not going to flip over when, you know, someone, some jerk speeds through the no-wake zone or whatever.

01:50:44.000 They'll just rock kind of heavily.

01:50:46.000 But I went on a boat ride over Labor Day, and there's like a kitchen, and there's like a big table, you know, in the back.

01:50:54.000 You hang out.

01:50:55.000 There's solar panels, Starlink.

01:50:57.000 Four bedrooms.

01:51:00.000 Four bedrooms.

01:51:01.000 When I lived in Dallas there was that Ebola outbreak and there was a nurse who got sick and stuff like that and I knew this girl who I think her dad lived in like a houseboat off of Galveston off the coast in Texas and she'd be like, it's fine if it just gets bad we'll just push off the coast for a while.

01:51:13.000 Like a van you would still be trapped by the landlocked, you know, U.S.

01:51:17.000 highway system but with a boat just push off the coast.

01:51:19.000 Yeah, for anyone who comes you can...

01:51:21.000 Well, here's a question.

01:51:22.000 If you have a boat like that, can you just land on some random island?

01:51:26.000 Like, uninhabited island, just grab some fruit, and then just, like, leave?

01:51:30.000 Yeah, why not?

01:51:31.000 That sounds awesome.

01:51:32.000 Unless somebody already lives there and is mad about it.

01:51:34.000 But then you just have to defend yourself.

01:51:36.000 And I don't think they pay taxes.

01:51:37.000 I don't think if your home is on the water land.

01:51:40.000 On a boat?

01:51:42.000 Yeah.

01:51:42.000 I'm sure the government is like, there's some kind of property tax.

01:51:45.000 I used to watch a show about Alaska.

01:51:46.000 They used to, you know, live off the grid, but they would be stationed in the water and not have to pay taxes.

01:51:51.000 Not have anything to do with federal.

01:51:52.000 But like close enough to land?

01:51:53.000 Right.

01:51:53.000 They take a little tiny boat, you know, 40 feet, 30 feet to the land.

01:51:58.000 But they're off.

01:51:59.000 They're stationed.

01:51:59.000 You have to be more than like an arm's distance away?

01:52:01.000 I mean, I don't know the exact thing.

01:52:02.000 You can't touch the land?

01:52:03.000 It's a real show, but yeah.

01:52:06.000 Tim is getting very quiet, planning his catamaran escape.

01:52:08.000 He's thinking about getting a boat.

01:52:09.000 He's thinking hard.

01:52:10.000 I'm just like, I don't know if I can take care of a boat.

01:52:11.000 I thought we talked about the fact that boats are difficult to manage.

01:52:14.000 I know.

01:52:15.000 We were talking about, I was like, is it possible to do this show from a boat?

01:52:19.000 How cool would that be?

01:52:21.000 Just in a boat.

01:52:23.000 Well, we're in a landlocked state, so I feel like my commute's about to get real difficult.

01:52:26.000 Yeah.

01:52:26.000 Yeah, that's right.

01:52:28.000 But we are only like an hour and a half from Annapolis.

01:52:32.000 That's true.

01:52:33.000 Team Cast IRL, live from a boat!

01:52:34.000 Annapolis is beautiful.

01:52:36.000 Got a lot of boats.

01:52:36.000 Maryland, but beautiful.

01:52:37.000 I'd go to that.

01:52:39.000 Can you imagine?

01:52:40.000 Welcome to our thing!

01:52:41.000 And then we have to get special stabilizers in case there's like a lot of heavy current.

01:52:46.000 All right, Grizzlock says, the vibe right now is the cartoon Rejected by Don Hertzfeldt, My Anus is Bleeding.

01:52:52.000 You guys remember that one?

01:52:54.000 Nope.

01:52:55.000 The Rejected cartoons?

01:52:56.000 You must be an internet person to know that one.

01:52:59.000 Not it.

01:53:00.000 You guys are more hip than I am.

01:53:02.000 And we are.

01:53:02.000 All right.

01:53:04.000 I'm just a boomer.

01:53:05.000 What can I say?

01:53:07.000 Jason Hutchinson says, Nancy, you have to pass the bill to see what's in the bill.

01:53:10.000 Kamala, you have to elect me to see the policies.

01:53:13.000 True.

01:53:13.000 Great comparison.

01:53:14.000 Similar vibe from our California political women. 0.99

01:53:17.000 Vipe is the word of the night, apparently.

01:53:20.000 You say it once and it's contagious.

01:53:21.000 I didn't realize how much I said weird until Democrats tried to make it their thing, and then I realized it's always been a part of my vocabulary.

01:53:29.000 Good luck, Mike.

01:53:29.000 Thank you for being a truck driver.

01:53:30.000 one was identified in humans in 1997.

01:53:32.000 Oh, you see?

01:53:33.000 There you go.

01:53:35.000 Mike Pierce says, I'm a truck driver and delivered a dollar general on the West Coast.

01:53:39.000 COVID was a wild time.

01:53:41.000 Bird flu would be nuts.

01:53:42.000 Mask up and keep trucking.

01:53:44.000 Good luck, Mike.

01:53:45.000 Thank you for being a truck driver.

01:53:47.000 That's how we get our commerce everywhere.

01:53:51.000 Sniper Olink says, I work for a hospital in Missouri.

01:53:54.000 To check in, you have to give your social security number.

01:53:57.000 I can't count how many times people have come in and can't put their social in because they don't have one.

01:54:03.000 They're everywhere.

01:54:06.000 Yeah, because the fertility rate right now is 1.6. 1.6. 0.99

01:54:12.000 In 16 years, we are not going to have enough replacement workers to keep jobs up.

01:54:17.000 Basic mathematical fact.

01:54:18.000 You've got a combination of older people who die and older people who retire, and you need four workers per one Social Security recipient.

01:54:26.000 So if birth rates right now are 1.6, Give it 16 years.

01:54:32.000 Yeah, our generation is going to grow up, like, there's so many people, again, who comment on my stuff and be like, you don't need to have kids, you're overpopulated.

01:54:38.000 Who are you going to depend on when you're older?

01:54:41.000 I'm not saying just your own children, but you're going to be depending on somebody else's children.

01:54:45.000 People who are children now are going to be the ones making it so you can exist later in life.

01:54:49.000 We need Like, if you personally don't want to have kids, you should want all of your friends to have kids, and you should be throwing them baby showers all the time.

01:54:59.000 Yeah, and you should be caring about the future, too.

01:55:01.000 Right.

01:55:01.000 We actually need a great American baby boom, and if you feel strongly you don't want to do it, you should want everyone around you to, because that's who is going to be there when you need support from society.

01:55:11.000 Yeah, and no matter how independent you are now, we're all going to get old and sick, and you're going to need someone.

01:55:17.000 Maybe they want around 500 million people.

01:55:21.000 Oh, like those, uh, like the Georgia Stones.

01:55:23.000 Did they, did they, did they rebuild those?

01:55:25.000 Not to my knowledge.

01:55:25.000 Search might.

01:55:27.000 No?

01:55:27.000 Cause some guy blew him up or something.

01:55:28.000 Did he like rammed a car into him or what did he do?

01:55:31.000 Been so long.

01:55:31.000 Didn't he?

01:55:32.000 Yeah, he, uh, blew him up.

01:55:33.000 I don't know if he ran a car into him, but I remember explosives on the video.

01:55:36.000 Yeah, that's crazy.

01:55:37.000 And him running away from it.

01:55:38.000 Yeah.

01:55:38.000 For those that aren't familiar, there was, like, every language, basic arithmetic, star chart, like, you could look through a hole and see, like, planets or whatever.

01:55:47.000 And it had, uh, guide, like, like, the rules for rebuilding civilization.

01:55:53.000 And the conspiracy theorists think it was, like, the plan of, of the global elite.

01:55:58.000 But I think the actual idea was it was the height of the Cold War.

01:56:00.000 And people were like, hey, if if we go into nuclear annihilation, we need a something that'll last forever that can translate all these, you know, like the Rosetta Stone, they argue, for a while, they argued we would never have understood hieroglyphics without the Rosetta Stone, which was a portion of it was Egyptian hieroglyphics and Greek.

01:56:20.000 So we were able to read the Greek and then understand the hieroglyphics.

01:56:24.000 But some people argue we would have figured it out anyway, after a certain amount of time.

01:56:27.000 I don't know, maybe.

01:56:28.000 But, uh, that's the idea for the Guidestones was we need something that can show the same phrase in all these different languages so you can decipher the language, basic math, so that when civilization is wiped out, whoever finds this will have a starting point.

01:56:42.000 And then people thought it was a conspiracy to destroy the Earth or whatever.

01:56:45.000 I don't know.

01:56:47.000 I wonder if the Earth is just ending right now anyway, to be honest.

01:56:49.000 Not just, like, environmentally, economically, but also just socially.

01:56:55.000 Maybe it's just behavioral sync.

01:56:58.000 Everything goes together.

01:56:59.000 Okay.

01:57:00.000 Yeah, like the the rat utopia project where the rats just like went insane.

01:57:05.000 Maxed out our time here.

01:57:07.000 Yeah, I mean, maybe.

01:57:09.000 Maybe it's all just falling apart.

01:57:11.000 Georgia stones.

01:57:12.000 It's funny.

01:57:13.000 The key facts are the last thing is bombed and demolished.

01:57:16.000 They took the small parts killed everything just got rid of everything.

01:57:19.000 It's not coming back.

01:57:19.000 It's done.

01:57:20.000 No.

01:57:20.000 Yeah.

01:57:22.000 Alright everybody, if you haven't already, would you kindly smash that like button, subscribe to this channel, share the show with your friends, head over to TimCast.com, click join us, become a member to support our work directly.

01:57:30.000 We need it now more than ever.

01:57:33.000 We're in the final stretch of this election and things are getting absolutely crazy, as you may have noticed.

01:57:38.000 So you can follow the show at Timcast IRL on Instagram.

01:57:41.000 You can follow me personally at Timcast.

01:57:43.000 Ivy, do you want to shout anything out?

01:57:44.000 Yeah, you can follow me on Instagram, TikTok.

01:57:48.000 Let's see, I'm ivy.lauren on Instagram, and then I'm ivyoutwest everywhere else.

01:57:53.000 I'm really behind on X, so I just started getting onto that.

01:57:57.000 So I have about 90 followers over there.

01:57:59.000 So if you want to go give me a follow over there, that'd be great.

01:58:02.000 Hey guys, I'm Raymond G. Stanley Jr.

01:58:05.000 Basically, I'm everywhere.

01:58:06.000 Like as Ian says, just look up Raymond G. Stanley Jr.

01:58:09.000 You can find me.

01:58:10.000 I had a great time.

01:58:11.000 Thank you for hanging out.

01:58:13.000 I hope everyone has a great weekend, man.

01:58:14.000 It's a good time.

01:58:15.000 Yeah, thanks for coming on a Friday show.

01:58:17.000 They're always kind of fun.

01:58:18.000 I'm Hannah-Claire Brimlow.

01:58:19.000 I'm a writer for scnr.com, Scanner News.

01:58:21.000 Check out their work at TimCastNews on the internet.

01:58:24.000 I'm hannahclaire.b on Instagram.

01:58:27.000 I'm hannahclaireb on Twitter.

01:58:29.000 Thanks for everything you guys do.

01:58:30.000 Have a good night.

01:58:31.000 We'll be back Monday.

01:58:33.000 Thank you all so much for hanging out.

Timcast IRL - Tim Pool - September 07, 2024

Trump Sentencing DELAYED, Trump WILL NOT Face Prison Until AFTER Election w-Ivy Lauren | Timcast IRLTrump Sentencing DELAYED, Trump WILL NOT Face Prison Until AFTER Election w-Ivy Lauren | Timcast IRL

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