Donald Trump has signed global tariffs, and the Democrats are losing their minds. The market tanked, and 401k s took a hit, but some argue that this is short-term pain for long-term gain. Mark Mitchell and I discuss how this could affect the midterms.
00:02:46.000The Democrats are calling it Recession Day.
00:02:49.000And, oh boy, if you didn't check your 401k or look at the market in the past hour or so, bless your heart, it's getting pretty brutal out there.
00:02:58.000But a lot of people are suggesting on the right that this is short-term pain for long-term gain.
00:03:03.000Either way, we'll see how this affects the midterm because we just had a big election in Florida and Wisconsin, and the Democrats won the Supreme Court in Wisconsin.
00:03:12.000Many Republicans now fear they're going to gerrymander the states and take away two congressional seats from the Republicans, so we'll talk about that.
00:03:45.000Ignoring your tax troubles is the worst thing you can do.
00:03:48.000April 15th marks another tax year that has passed you by.
00:03:52.000Getting ahead of this now is the smart move, but never, never contact the IRS alone.
00:03:55.000Instead, let the experts at Tax Network USA handle it for you.
00:04:00.000Why? Because they got, uh, not all tax resolution companies are the same.
00:04:04.000They got a preferred direct line to the IRS, meaning they know exactly which agents to deal with and which to avoid.
00:04:10.000With proven strategies to settle tax problems in your favor, whether you owe $10,000 or $10 million, Tax Network USA's attorneys and negotiators have already resolved over a billion dollars in tax debt.
00:04:20.000Talk with one of their strategists today.
00:05:22.000One thing you can do is you can join us at TimCast.com, get in the Discord server, hang out with like-minded individuals, learn, build, share your ideas.
00:06:28.000Let me just say real quick, the anger from the left and the corporate press that Ilad simply asked a couple of questions in the White House, it is, I don't know.
00:07:14.000April 2nd, 2025, will forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn, the day America's destiny was reclaimed, and the day that we began to make America wealthy again.
00:07:31.000Gonna make it wealthy, good and wealthy.
00:07:34.000For decades, our country has been looted, pillaged, raped, and plundered by nations near and far, both friend and foe alike.
00:07:43.000American steelworkers, autoworkers, farmers and skilled craftsmen.
00:07:47.000We have a lot of them here with us today.
00:08:09.000And you are now, but you don't too often and for many years and decades, even you didn't hear too much about our country and its taxpayers have been ripped off for more than 50 years.
00:08:21.000But it is not going to happen anymore.
00:08:49.000This is one of the most important days, in my opinion, in American history.
00:08:55.000It's our declaration of economic independence.
00:08:59.000For years, hardworking American citizens were forced to sit on the sidelines as other nations got rich and powerful, much of it at our expense.
00:09:09.000But now it's our turn to prosper, and in so doing, use trillions and trillions of dollars to reduce our taxes and pay down our national debt.
00:09:35.000And so this is what they've presented.
00:09:37.000You can see that they say tariffs charged to the U.S., including currency manipulation and trade barriers, and they've listed it for each country.
00:11:10.000I talked about the word groceries for a lot.
00:11:14.000It's a bag with different things in it.
00:11:16.000I didn't realize that was an old-fashioned term, but alright.
00:11:19.000He may not have seen a bag of groceries for a long time, who knows?
00:11:22.000I gotta be honest, that's probably it.
00:11:24.000Trump hasn't seen groceries, he thinks it's old-fashioned because the last time he went to the store and actually filled the bag was when he was a little kid.
00:11:29.000I just picture a big brown paper bag filled up, that rectangle with celery sticking out the top.
00:12:06.000So if this is a successful policy, we're not going to know for a long time.
00:12:14.000The goal is to, you know, return manufacturing, a manufacturing base in the United States.
00:12:20.000I think that that is extremely important.
00:12:23.000The fact that we don't have specifically, you know, things like, um, like semiconductors, right?
00:12:29.000Like, like chips that you need that to make any kind of modern computers, which is, is, is, you know, ubiquitous in, in military, uh, hardware and stuff, that kind of stuff.
00:12:44.000We can't allow a You know our military to be shut down Because you know if China decides to take Taiwan or whatever these kind of things happen like that is that is national security It's a national security imperative.
00:12:59.000We make plenty of food here So the idea that you have to make you know, we have to do tariffs for for agriculture or something like that I don't think that that's necessary but The goal is to return manufacturing base to the United States and people have been complaining forever that, oh, you know, they ship jobs overseas, they ship jobs overseas.
00:13:19.000The only way you can get companies to bring, if I understand correctly, the only way you can get companies to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. is to do things like tariffs or get rid of minimum wage, get rid of unions, get rid of all of the things that essentially No, not at all.
00:13:44.000We just pulled on it not that long ago.
00:13:46.000And the numbers were just completely – it's like, should we charge tariffs or not?
00:13:52.000It was like 33% yes, 33% no, and then everybody else was just, I don't know, it doesn't make sense, I'm not sure.
00:13:58.000But his messaging was on point because he talked about grievances, he talked about jobs, and nobody's looking – listen, if you've got a stock portfolio, you're very likely a Harris voter.
00:14:08.000And this is something that he's been prepping people for.
00:14:11.000You're saying Trump voters don't have stock portfolios?
00:14:14.000I'm just saying looking at the demographic signals, older, higher educated, higher income overwhelmingly went.
00:14:23.000Yeah. And so, I mean, Trump, it very much was a working class thing.
00:14:27.000And this election was about basically the economy in a way that previous elections like weren't even.
00:14:35.000We asked, are you better off than you were four years ago?
00:14:38.000The typical question, the answer was like 35%.
00:14:40.000Will today's children be better off than their parents?
00:14:43.00022%. So just absolutely off the chart, horrible numbers.
00:14:46.000And so I think this is one of the things that they're going to trust Trump on.
00:14:50.000Like, this is why they put him into office and nothing that's happened so far has affected his numbers.
00:15:17.000So I usually do have a little bit of beef with these tariffs.
00:15:20.000But I think what Trump's real move here isn't to ultimately try to bring back manufacturing because I also don't think tariffs would ultimately do that.
00:15:27.000I think Trump's trying to do an art of the wind style reduction of tariffs from other countries back onto this.
00:15:33.000I believe he did this in his first term too.
00:15:37.000Obviously these tariffs from other countries onto our economy isn't a good thing, but I feel like for a long time we justified it because our economy was so powerful.
00:15:45.000And to these countries with nascent, you know, different markets developing and want to protect their, I don't know, date market.
00:15:53.000They put up a high tariff to try to not get dominated by our very powerful market.
00:15:57.000And we accepted that because we used to buy out a lot of countries for their essentially allyship with us.
00:16:02.000And we'd actually sell them arms and kind of have a deal.
00:16:06.000It's a different trade, but what I think the ultimate goal here, and we'll learn very soon if it works or not, is if these other countries remove their tariffs.
00:16:12.000I don't think this at all is a play to bring back manufacturing, and if it is, then I think it's actually not going to work, so...
00:16:20.000Because that's essentially the line that the administration says.
00:16:23.000I think it's a popular thing to tell people, like, hey, we're going to bring back the jobs, but at the end of the day, like, even a 25% tariff wouldn't make I think?
00:16:38.000But when the Taiwan Semiconductor Company tried to do it here, they ended up essentially calling the Americans workers lazy and not being able to keep up with their operations over there.
00:16:47.000So some societies are specialized to do things.
00:16:49.000And it takes a long time to develop, for example, a car manufacturing plant.
00:16:53.000These are huge capital investments initially.
00:16:56.000It takes 10 years plus to actually develop the field.
00:16:59.000And I think, again, this is really more just negotiating technology.
00:17:41.000It was just because people decided that they didn't like the fact that he had three or whatever terms.
00:17:48.000They said it seemed too much like Dictatorship if somebody were to get keep getting reelected and I guess the idea is the same thing with like congressional term limits Once you become a president for three or four terms I feel like you are so powerful and you're able to already accomplish so much and and benefit from your legacy and Yeah,
00:18:08.000I think the cap the idea of the it was unofficial for since George Washington the two and then FDR broke it during obviously very intense times I don't know if Trump's serious or just trying to stoke media attention when he suggests that I personally think that he's only trying to stoke media attention.
00:18:25.000And also, it gives the progressive that really hate him, it gives them something to hate on him for.
00:18:31.000And so it takes the attention off of, say, you know, the stock market or, you know, it basically, you know, moves along the news.
00:18:39.000Have you guys poll tested a third term?
00:19:30.000And then FDR was like, I'm going to keep going.
00:19:32.000And then people kept voting for him because I guess, all right.
00:19:34.000There was a fear that what would end up happening is a president who could run for unlimited terms could use the power of the executive branch to stop any legitimate competition.
00:19:43.000A strongman basically then says, this guy's actually polling against me, arrest him, charge him with whatever crime, and make my opponent this puppet.
00:19:52.000And you get what we see in other countries.
00:19:54.000We would have for sure saw Obama, third term Obama, if that was the case.
00:20:02.000I think Putin's been democratically elected, allegedly, in Russia a few times since 99. And this is basically the argument.
00:20:10.000If you can run indefinitely and you have no honor, like FDR, you're just going to keep running even though you're supposed to stop, you can just constantly be up against awful candidates that you prop up.
00:20:21.000Then you get the DNC and the RNC teaming up and they say, we all have a shared agenda, it'll be your guy this time, and we're going to put up the worst candidate imaginable so your guy wins as often as he wants to.
00:20:31.000What ended up happening, though, the two-term 22nd Amendment didn't actually stop what happens.
00:20:35.000What ends up happening is the DNC and the RNC get together and then say, this time our guy, next time your guy, but we agree they'll do the exact same things.
00:20:42.000Obama's gonna claim to be anti-war, but he's gonna blow up a bunch of kids.
00:20:45.000Deal. It's funny how it only applies to the executive branch and not the legislative branch.
00:20:54.000However, you know, they're not going to accumulate power.
00:20:56.000They're not going to accumulate corruption.
00:20:57.000Yeah, the power, the accumulated power, literally like the connections, the people, you know, that will do things for you because of who you are, your position.
00:21:04.000And they know if they know you're going to be there for a long time, it's like, dude, let's, let's make a deal, bro.
00:21:40.000And if a group, an impaneled group of experts say, dare I say, the tariffs are bad, and then Trump goes, you're wrong, tariffs are good, people are going to be like, Trump, you know, I'm sick of the credentialist class.
00:22:48.000In 2008, it was like, yo, The economy is about to experience a Great Depression, you guys.
00:22:52.000We need to bail them out by printing a crapload, trillions of dollars, whatever, to pay Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, these loan agency companies.
00:23:00.000Whatever. They were doing quantitative easing for a decade.
00:23:07.000Interest rates were at zero for 10 years to prevent a recession.
00:23:13.000From 2008 until, essentially, I think it was like when Donald Trump got in, so it was like 2017 is when they actually started This is a direct line to what you just talked about and Trump.
00:23:35.000I actually ran, I went to Fred and looked at some statistics, and I looked at the median income of America, like just the average person in the middle of America, and I put a ratio of their per capita total government debt over that, and the number was like relatively flat at like 0.5 up until 2008, up until the bailout and quantitative easing.
00:23:56.000And so you have this situation where Yeah.
00:24:01.000Yeah. That's why Trump's in office and all that money that went into the economy It was being loaned at 0% or whatever Wealthy people were taking that money and they were they were taking loans at super super low interest rates and
00:24:31.000then buying stock with it So that stock we had a much higher return because the stock market they didn't want to see the stock market tank So they kept pumping money in and people were borrowing money at super low rates and buying stock so if you went and and had you had ten years of essentially if you had You had some money and you had good credit, and I'm talking about a couple million dollars you get a loan for.
00:24:55.000Take a million dollars, dump it in the stock market, a couple years later you got a million and a half, two million or whatever.
00:25:02.000Rich people like when the market crashes for a variety of reasons.
00:25:31.000You put the $100,000 you saved actually into the stock market where its value goes up with inflation as the market Depending on how the market operates, you can short, so they're insulated from this, but inflation in general, or a market crash, can be manipulated so that the money they have through shorts or through just general stock and inflation goes up.
00:25:49.000The value of the house stays at $100,000, or the debt, I'm sorry.
00:25:55.000And as the dollar inflates, the amount of money the average person has to get paid goes up.
00:26:01.000That means the amount of labor You owe to pay back the house goes down over time.
00:26:09.000That's what quantitative easing basically does.
00:26:10.000Hey, take a loan from us, the US government says $1 billion.
00:26:15.000$1 billion can buy you 100, you know, widget factories, then they quantitative ease inflate the currency and now that billion dollars can only buy 50 widget factories.
00:26:25.000So the loan was bad, but the US still has the still has them under their under their financing, right?
00:26:31.000So I'm butchering this, but the general idea is, if you're wealthy, when inflation occurs, the debt you have is, the number looks the same to the average person, but to the wealthy person, they're not calculating dollars, they're calculating buying power.
00:26:49.000So for the working class person, that house now is, and here's the best part too, that $100,000 you owe, the buying power is diminished.
00:26:59.000So that means if everything becomes more expensive, You can make that money, you can make more money than that easier because everybody else is, but now the value of the house has gone up to $300.
00:27:07.000And the working class person, they're looking at dollars like dollars.
00:27:11.000They can't buy that house because it went from $100 to $300.
00:27:14.000There was a story I was reading on Reddit where a guy said he was saving up to buy something, a tablet or a computer, and then after he finally got two-thirds of the way to the savings, and he was like, one more month, the price jumped on Amazon.
00:27:30.000That's what it's like for the working class when these things happen, but the rich, they don't care.
00:27:33.000The rich, when they, the only time the rich suffer, well I don't know about the only time, but the big thing that'll cause the rich to suffer in that...
00:27:39.000scenario you're talking about is if they're borrowing and they're investing on margin, which is what you're talking about, Phil, where you take a loan out and then you invest with that loan, assuming that it's going to return.
00:27:47.000If that stock market crashes while your loan is in that, you lose it, and then you owe money back to the bank, you can't afford to pay back, and they start taking your stuff.
00:28:04.000So what happened in 08, they're like, crap, We need to make sure that that market does not collapse, because everyone on margin right now will go under.
00:28:10.000So they just print a bunch of money, which they couldn't do in 29. They didn't really, like, this is, I've heard that the Great Depression was, that the Federal Reservists used that as an excuse to take, like, you need us so that we make sure you'll never, your stock market will never crash again.
00:28:24.000You can't allow just the government and real money because it's too risky.
00:28:28.000That was their, you know what, you know what Trump's doing with this?
00:28:33.000I think the Democrats are getting whipped into a frenzy by saying Trump's policies are dumb.
00:28:39.000I think that the Republicans saying no tariffs this tariffs that are missing the big picture.
00:28:43.000Trump with this global tariff move is intending to stab the liberal economic order in the heart.
00:28:49.000One of the principal components of the liberal economic order was create a network of international trade agreements that make it very difficult to engage in international conflict.
00:28:59.000And for whatever reason you want to subscribe to or prescribe, Donald Trump doing this is basically saying, we will cut all of those ties if we must.
00:29:08.000Now maybe it's for the betterment of this country, whatever it is, but this is a nuclear bomb on what we would refer to as the liberal economic order, the deep state, or whatever.
00:29:26.000There's a sector, there's a thing in it called the Investor State Dispute Settlement Clause.
00:29:31.000So if you had an investor in a country, the country being the state, it would give the power of the corporation to sue the country.
00:29:36.000If their people were discriminating against their product.
00:29:38.000And it was in order to give essentially to give Malaysian oil companies the power to sue the United States government if we wouldn't buy their oil or something.
00:29:45.000And then we as a taxpayer would have to pay this Malaysian oil company.
00:30:22.000But then you realize a bunch of DEI race communists are trying to utilize this system.
00:30:28.000Maybe it's because the control went, it got out of control or whatever, but I'm not so interested in living under the boot of a bunch of psychotic communists.
00:30:37.000I think this is about he's signaling it's about jobs.
00:30:41.000I think there's going to be short-term economic pain and he knows that and he's probably trying to get through it as fast as possible.
00:30:47.000But I came out of retail and I don't know if this stat is still accurate, but I heard as much as 95% of all skews on the non-grocery part of your average Walmart or China.
00:30:57.000And we know what Amazon is doing with China, essentially, people list a new product and it's been accused that very rapidly, they'll offshore, they'll create their own version, they'll undercut them.
00:31:08.000And so I think there's this aspect of wealth and power concentration.
00:31:11.000And to make it even more perverse, like bringing it back to Bernanke, I worked in VC.
00:31:16.000And a lot, you'd see these massive venture capital overvaluations, because assets were trying to seek It's We're good.
00:31:41.000Valley workers, H-1Bs, MBAs, bank accounts in very massive amounts.
00:31:47.000So you have potentially the pension money for public employees going to create – and then you get this aspect of – There was a lot of best practice sharing coming out of technology companies into the major corporates, a lot of cross-pollinization of these ideas.
00:32:03.000And I think it's one of the engines that really built Woke into the entire Fortune 500, essentially, because what Silicon Valley was doing was cool, everybody had to become a tech company, and then it got this political aspect to it.
00:32:16.000And it all stems back from central planning, a focus on maintaining economic stability, Meanwhile, the middle class gets gutted and all their jobs get stolen.
00:33:31.000If you want to talk about what Democrats had been doing over the past four years, fine.
00:33:36.000But they've got no leg to stand on right now, as Donald Trump is making moves only two months in, and they had four years and only expanded.
00:33:48.000The doge thing, I mean, that's Trump's big attempt at righting the American economy is doge.
00:33:55.000And it's like, if you don't want to see that, if you're not interested in believing that that's possible, that's a form of cognitive dissonance.
00:34:02.000It really is an attempt to stabilize our deficit to zero, ideally.
00:34:08.000Maybe it's $2 trillion, it'll be $1 trillion next year, and then maybe we can get it down that we're actually, that our debt is going down.
00:34:16.000That's the biggest plan, is that reduction in corruptive spending.
00:34:19.000Other stuff, I don't know if Jeffries has pointed out, he hasn't made any big moves with making car manufacturing cheaper or whatever.
00:34:27.000It's just a more holistic, I think, approach he's taking right now.
00:34:30.000Let me just say, to the point, Democrats opened up the borders.
00:34:34.000The country was flooded with low-skill labor that not only was displacing people's jobs, they started using tax funds to supply these people with resources Americans did not have.
00:34:46.000This strained the economic system, reduced the Americans' buying power, because...
00:36:22.000Well, the party out of power are always going to blame the party in power for whatever negative thing is happening, no matter how long it's been.
00:36:30.000Like as soon as Trump the day when Trump was saying on day one, these things are going to happen.
00:36:35.000And on day two, they were like, look, Trump's a failure already.
00:36:38.000He said this was going to happen, etc.
00:36:39.000And you kind of expect that when it comes to like the political arena.
00:36:43.000But it doesn't change the fact that the Democrats have done nothing So I really think there's only one thing that could slow down the President Trump administration,
00:37:12.000and that's if he hits on a recession, obviously.
00:37:16.000Allegedly, you're not even supposed to say the word because it'll encourage recession to happen.
00:37:19.000But there's a lot of mitigating circumstances right now that tariffs might add to a more turbulent situation.
00:37:27.000So, for example, in the Red Sea, World Trade is being interrupted right now by the Houthis.
00:37:33.000We have our stock market that's extremely overvalued right now, particularly the Magnificent Seven or what have you, are extremely overvalued.
00:37:41.000Now we're throwing the tariffs on top of this.
00:37:44.000What a time we're seeing political geopolitical conflict around the world.
00:37:47.000I think if a recession starts happening is what could get people to turn on Trump and prevent him to from accomplishing these other things.
00:37:55.000So I just really hope he knows what he's doing with these tariffs and I hope to see these actually be rescinded in a few months when these other countries take back their tariffs.
00:38:04.000I think that'll calm down the market a lot and we won't fall into something like that.
00:38:08.000But again, there's a lot of mitigating circumstances right now that could push us push our economy I think we're reaching the extent of the professional class's ability to define things the way they want them to be defined.
00:38:23.000Because I can tell you, he's been talking about tariffs for a long time.
00:38:28.000The stock market's been going up and down a long time.
00:38:30.000I think these numbers were framed late last week.
00:38:32.000How do you rate President Trump on the issue of the economy?
00:38:42.000That's how I guess what scared me you heard about the auto tariff tax So I guess if you're gonna be buying a car in the near future, you're going to be hit with what a 10 15 now I'm percent price.
00:38:52.000Well, I'm just saying it's not affecting his numbers And I think what people have invested in is a major economic rebalancing That's gonna break some eggs.
00:38:58.000Like if Elon is cutting a trillion dollars out of the deficit.
00:39:02.000That's like 3.6 percent of GDP So you can't not have a recession if he's going to fulfill his mission.
00:39:08.000And then on top of that, I mean, listen, it's just the stock market doesn't define the economy anymore.
00:39:16.000The stock market really doesn't hit the middle class and working people because most people that have stocks are, you know, upper to...
00:39:24.000I think most people don't actually, I forgot what the numbers were, most people don't actually have much or if anything above like $10,000 in savings.
00:40:39.000These people wouldn't know what a callous was if you showed them your own hands.
00:40:43.000They would just think you were deformed, because certainly that's not a real thing that happens to people.
00:40:47.000I would like to see a grand correction where everything realigns back to those who do hard work are successful in this country.
00:40:55.000The man who is buying a nice filet mignon with herb butter is a guy who builds things for a living and works hard and earns that reward, not some uppity liberal moron who's never worked a real job in their life and they're an aide in Congress or they work for a media publication where their job is to literally complain on camera to millions of people and they make exorbitant sums of money.
00:41:17.000Money. Could you imagine someone like that?
00:41:19.000These kind of people, they're permanent children.
00:41:21.000They probably wear the same clothes every day.
00:41:27.000The people who are making millions of dollars should be first responders, firefighters, police, service men and women.
00:41:34.000Now that's a grandiose view, but I'll put it simply, and I know there was a joke in there.
00:41:38.000My point is, when I hear that you've got these liberal journalists at these publications making six figures, And a guy who used to work on an assembly line for auto manufacturing lost his job because they sold the factories to Mexico.
00:42:01.000Yet it is the uppity, well-to-do liberal working for a company where they produce nothing of value who is reaping the rewards of the system.
00:42:09.000It's the person with absolutely no moral rudder who's willing to suck up to a game and a system in order to get ahead without considering the moral ramifications.
00:42:19.000Here's, this is what people signed up for with Trump.
00:42:22.000And I'll tell you just the mass deportation plan, massively deflationary.
00:42:27.000That's baked into, that's what he's going after.
00:44:07.000I mean, now the buying power goes down.
00:44:09.000And a recession, that's more uncontrolled.
00:44:10.000That's like, yo, things are happening out of our control.
00:44:12.000A recession is, very specifically, I think two consecutive quarters of negative nominal GDP growth.
00:44:19.000And if you Zap 3.6% of GDP, which is government spending, by removing $1 trillion.
00:44:25.000Like, you're getting a recession on paper.
00:44:27.000And they'll also inflate the value of GDP by having one guy dig a hole, and then they'll pay another guy to fill it back up, and they'll be like, look, gross domestic product.
00:44:34.000That's not real, uh, what do you call the opposite of recession?
00:44:38.000That's not real, like, prog- It's not, uh, productivity.
00:44:41.000Yeah, it's not productivity, but even though they'll call it that, so obviously that's been inflated too.
00:44:46.000Yeah, I think it's time to just accept that we've been in a recession for a long time, and now we're trying to stem the bleeding.
00:44:55.000The bleeding being the inflation that's been going on.
00:44:58.000Let's jump to this next story from CNN.
00:44:59.000Ladies and gentlemen, I have good news.
00:45:00.000If you are concerned about Trump's agenda getting through, if you are worried that Democrats will obstruct him, fear not.
00:45:07.000For the Republicans, nine of them have joined with Democrats to make sure Trump never wins.
00:45:11.000Because they believe that they deserve special DEI privileges.
00:45:16.000Nine Republicans teamed up with Democrats so that new mothers in Congress will be allowed to work remotely and vote outside of Congress, which is unconstitutional, I believe is despicable, and it is the epitome of DEI.
00:45:31.000They are quite literally saying, instead of just resigning from Congress to take care of your family, Their voices are a requirement to the diversity in Congress.
00:45:42.000And because of their different lived experiences as women, they require special rules that only apply to them.
00:45:49.000Speaker Johnson suffers defeat as GOP rebels tank effort to block remote voting for new parents.
00:46:10.000I believe that if you want to be in Congress, either don't have kids for two years.
00:46:14.000And if you want to have kids, simply resign.
00:46:16.000But here we are now jammed up, not working on getting through Trump's agenda.
00:46:21.000After Republicans just lost the Supreme Court Wisconsin, and there's a very real fear that the slim majority will be lost in 2027, this is what we get because 9GOP decided they wanted to be Democrat Marxists.
00:47:36.000But between these nine Republicans and and Massey last time voting against the CR, I don't understand why these Republicans cannot get on the same page to pass the Trump agenda.
00:47:48.000But when it comes to stuff like this, lining up with the Democrats to be like, oh, you know, we need this specific these carve outs for us for because we have children.
00:47:58.000If you're going to become a public servant, you have to plan you should Have a great day.
00:48:16.000You know, became the Secretary of Transportation, and he decided to take, what, a couple months off because he went out and he bought a baby, right?
00:48:25.000Like, you can, especially Buttigieg, like, he could plan that far better than...
00:48:31.000And neither parent actually had the baby.
00:48:40.000Oh, well, we weren't planning it, but whatever.
00:48:42.000You should be responsible enough to be like, all right, I'm taking this time in my life to be a public servant, so I'm gonna make sure that I don't get pregnant, that I don't have small children.
00:49:00.000If it was military command, which I kind of see Congress, I know they're civilians, but they're guiding the military economic force of the world, they should treat it like frontline military operations.
00:49:10.000They should be there, like, Clockwork every day.
00:49:15.000They should be on duty and I just I mean I could maybe they could have a proxy come in and vote for them No, like designate my assistant will be there on this day to vote for me in person.
00:49:25.000It's way better than doing it remote I wonder what the real story here is because Representative Annapolina Luna usually hates the Democrats.
00:49:33.000I think former Freedom Caucus goer, so I think there might be something else here.
00:49:38.000Or I think it's just interesting how Democrats are able to kind of pull on the heartstrings of some of these Republicans on issues that they have affinity with them on.
00:49:46.000Well, Democrats ubiquitously vote as a bloc.
00:49:49.000And Republicans always seem like they can't ever do that.
00:49:55.000There might be something or might not.
00:49:57.000I don't really care that much about this issue.
00:49:58.000But it's like, why are we hearing about this and not a SAVE Act?
00:50:02.000Not about Darrell Issa's bill to try and get rid of judicial overreach.
00:50:07.000I can tell you that voters, 65% of them love the idea of deporting violent gangbangers.
00:50:13.000They want this judge impeached by two to one margin.
00:50:16.000And And I'm not getting the feeling from Congress that it's DEF CON 1 down there.
00:50:21.000So it's like, if Republicans understand how existential this election was, and the very beautiful gift that Donald Trump has given them, which is a platform more popular than Republicans have ever been, if they can't get behind this and break a little sweat, like, that's what I'm concerned about.
00:51:14.000Every single time it comes down to the question of duty and responsibility, this country shifts towards giving privileges to special classes instead of equality.
00:51:24.000And this is what they're asking for right now.
00:51:27.000The Democrats and the GOP are trying to get special privileges based on class, based on a class of identifiable persons.
00:51:46.000This is maybe even a tangent, but like, it used to be, I've brought this up before the show, the founding fathers, the first people that served in Congress, were all men.
00:51:54.000If there was kids being born, they were at home with the mom.
00:51:57.000Then at some point, women came in, and you have to accommodate, for they might have a baby.
00:52:02.000How are they going to lead the military if they're the baby?
00:52:25.000We just lost three of them because they, I don't know why, but they kicked the next vote into next week.
00:52:30.000And I'll tell you, again, I just don't know why it came up, because my understanding is that almost every vote, they know what day it's going to be, they can plan around it, they, you know, so...
00:53:20.000I can see the value of agility of government.
00:53:23.000Like they were doing military strike on Signal.
00:53:26.000It's easier than, hey, let's all report to the, let's all go to the Pentagon at 4pm so we can sit down, talk about something for eight minutes, and then get up and leave, and then we'll have our battle plans in order.
00:53:37.000They can do it Instant so much quicker great for military because you're remote So there's a value to quickly being able to get a vote out.
00:53:46.000It doesn't seem like a secure Tactic, but I'm open to you know, the evolution of governance.
00:53:50.000It doesn't have to always be in person in the same building It doesn't you know, maybe if it's life and death and you have to look as quick.
00:53:57.000Maybe you have to go remote I like the idea of the representatives having to be there to cast the vote and I think that they should be there to cast the vote like I don't think that they should be allowed to remote vote.
00:54:07.000I don't think they should be allowed to have someone else vote for them.
00:54:10.000You have your job, just like Tim said, the vast majority of their job is fundraising.
00:54:16.000Go to D.C. when there are votes because they're scheduled.
00:54:52.000Or actually, I think Articles 1 and 3. You know, and it's a funny thing to hear somebody saying yes, but I bet there's people thinking that.
00:54:57.000There are people that are so frustrated, they're like...
00:54:59.000Sorry, it's Articles 1 and 3. Silly me.
00:55:01.000Of course, that's why it makes more sense.
00:55:04.000Article 1 is Congress, Article 3 is the Judiciary.
00:56:53.000Really? Yeah, we've pulled on civil war.
00:56:56.000But I think one of the big signs I think that we're in this is the complete flip of 18 to 39 year olds who went from like 30 to 40 points Harris to Just, you know, a decade ago, or Hillary Clinton, to now, Donald Trump actually had a 60% favorability rating with 18 to 39 year olds like a month ago.
00:57:14.000Like they are now the highest approving people of Trump.
00:57:16.000And they're also the most likely to say that the country's in the right direction.
00:57:20.000So the problem is, is for fourth turning, right after a crisis, you have a very high need for order, and a high need for Supply and demand of order because you just fixed a major problem like World War two over time because things are good It's a golden age the demand for order decreases, but you still have order.
00:57:40.000Yeah, then it all comes falling apart And so what we have now is maximum demand for order and zero supply Let me jump to this tweet real quick so we can carry this conversation.
00:57:50.000We've got this tweet from Colin rug He says Alec Baldwin declares the US is in a pre-civil war culture.
00:57:55.000I'm gonna pause right away Alec Baldwin made a very calm statement on social media.
00:58:00.000Conservatives are insulting and deriding him.
00:58:02.000This is the stupidest thing I've ever heard.
00:58:03.000You can rag on the guy for his attitude.
00:58:06.000You can rag on him for being a hothead for his politics.
00:58:08.000But to say that he declares something.
00:58:10.000He says, I watched a show and they said that we were in pre-Civil War culture and I kind of think that's the case.
00:58:15.000And then you've got the actor took a break from being bossed around by his wife.
00:58:22.000But we can listen to what people we disagree with have to say.
00:58:26.000Here's what he said let my hand to pick up the remote and turn on my television Sorry and watch Ken Burns famous famous miniseries And boy you can see now that we are in a pre-civil war culture now They describe Things back then,
00:58:54.000politically, there were profound differences, of course, in terms of just history and age and, you know, what life was like back then and cotton and slavery and Lincoln and Robert E. Lee and so forth.
00:59:19.000Awful that this country had to go through that.
00:59:22.000Awful. But as a story is just overwhelmingly powerful and fascinating But I look at the politics of it of where people are in this country today In the division and how they're holding fast and no one's going to falter no one's going to break or Compromise and it's bad.
00:59:50.000He's not wrong He said, I watched a series.
00:59:53.000I saw what it was like in the Civil War.
01:00:00.000The fact that the response to him saying something that is just a blanket statement about the current culture war is met with tribal derision, I think exemplifies exactly what he's saying.
01:00:10.000But what he's actually trying to say is we're in a period called Civil Strife.
01:00:15.000One that I did not make this up, though I talk about it quite a bit.
01:00:19.000I'm curious, you mentioned that you've polled on this issue of civil war.
01:00:24.000This is what separates us because we just don't do the election horse races.
01:00:28.000We're actually concerned about like the future of America and how people think because the Overton window moves all over the place on all kinds of topics.
01:00:35.000And it's been weaponized, especially with all these info ops.
01:00:39.000So the net effect of the Biden administration was to take the question, how likely is it that a civil war We'll see a civil war in the next few years.
01:00:46.000From low 30s up to the highest number that we ever saw was 43%.
01:01:42.000In the Northeast, Democrats overwhelmingly said we should secede.
01:01:47.000In the South, Republicans overwhelmingly said we should secede.
01:01:50.000In the West, Pacific Northwest and West, Democrats overwhelmingly said we should secede.
01:01:55.000The only place that was independent and wanted secession was the Midwest.
01:02:03.000But I actually, it's fascinating where we are with AI these days, because what I did was I actually pulled all of the numbers for each region, Yes.
01:03:03.000Abraham Lincoln arrested the Maryland legislature that was sympathetic to the Confederacy, arrested journalists, threatened to arrest a sitting Supreme Court justice, and created suspension of habeas corpus between Pennsylvania and D.C. He's a hero.
01:03:26.000Look, I can sympathize with abolitionism, but this guy took over the Harper's Ferry Armory And when a train pulled through, he was like, they can go, they're fine.
01:04:22.000And look, I think it's around three to five percent of the South were slave owners.
01:04:25.000So these are people who were just called up by their state for active duty.
01:04:29.000They came home to find they were no longer part of their home state anymore.
01:04:33.000It's absolutely wild, the things that went down in the Civil War.
01:04:37.000Yeah. And the Supreme Court ultimately said to Virginia after the war, screw you, West Virginia's gone.
01:04:42.000What's crazy is how much the calculus has just changed in a year, right?
01:04:46.000Because you almost feel like if it had happened a few years ago, it would have been like, A straw breaks the camel's back, MAGA flips out, there's some kind of violent protest, and then the police state cracks down on it, and then it pops off.
01:05:01.000But here it's like, pretty easy to say that the military and police would side with Trump.
01:05:14.000And when you look at the history of the Civil War in the United States, Nobody thought the war could happen, largely because they were like...
01:05:21.000You mean all of these generals from each of these states that were all trained at West Point together and are friends with each other are gonna fight?
01:05:27.000That's the stupidest thing I ever heard.
01:06:42.000He's gonna say, look, when I watch police officers arrest innocent people, seize guns from innocent people, and they go, I'm just doing my job, and conservatives defend it, the idea that Donald Trump would decree and police would side with him is laughable to me.
01:06:57.000I think there's a lot of questions about whether the principle, and you never know until you know, like, what kicks it off.
01:07:04.000But if there's a rebuttal to that, and I'm not saying it is, because I have no idea how this would play out, is that I think states matter less.
01:07:18.000And also, in the polling, what I noticed is that your state doesn't really friggin' matter that much, except for just how left or right you are.
01:07:26.000Like, if I polled Wisconsin this cycle, I was seeing almost as high levels of concern about the border as I was in, like, Arizona and Nevada.
01:07:35.000Really? So it doesn't matter that much, except for literally the sliding scale of Kamala Harris and Trump.
01:07:40.000Problem is, All of those blue voters are in cities that need supply chains.
01:07:47.000So let's imagine police in the big cities and surrounding suburbs, and a conflict breaks out.
01:07:54.000Not a civil war, but there's a conflict.
01:07:55.000Maybe Texas, you know, when they were securing their border against Joe Biden, maybe we see something like that.
01:08:01.000Maybe we see California completely opens up.
01:08:26.000When... What would happen is the National Guard would show up and the police would likely say, you know, as a matter of law, the Insurrection Act, we don't intervene in this regard, in these matters.
01:10:33.000The woman is right there or she's rushing towards the border.
01:10:36.000It's a crazy scenario, but how does this play out if a woman were to do this?
01:10:40.000If this does come to a point where there is a conflict and Oklahoma says she is breaking the law, kidnapping this child, Colorado says, no, she's not.
01:10:53.000The police 100% would be on the side of the woman.
01:10:56.000Oklahoma would 100% be on the side of the man.
01:10:59.000The federal government could try to intervene, and then Colorado's gonna claim that Trump is trying to overrule the state's sovereign laws, violating the 9th and 10th Amendment.
01:11:07.000I don't know how likely that is, I'm just saying.
01:11:10.000If you understand a scenario where it comes down to a conflict between the federal government and the state, where they actively need to oppose each other, the state is gonna side with the state, and the federal government with the federal government.
01:11:21.000The simple reason is that A guy may be a conservative, Trump supporter, MAGA cop, but when they say, you will defy Donald Trump and follow the orders of your department, he's going to look around at every house and say, it's 90% Democrat.
01:11:36.000Either I flee the state with my family right now and I'm homeless and I begged Trump for help, or I just do as I'm told and do my job for my state.
01:11:44.000Well, what I can say is you should probably.
01:11:47.000Ask ChatGPT to make that into a movie script, because it would have been a better Civil War movie than the one that they put out.
01:12:15.000A context of tension, a constitutional crisis, or something that sparks it off, and then it just comes down to the details, and I don't know.
01:12:23.000I think that one of the mistakes we often make is that we compare now to the US Civil War, which was distinct.
01:12:31.000There was a strong moral issue and a question of personhood between sovereign, independent states under a weak government.
01:12:43.000Today, we are dealing with something more akin to, like, the Bolsheviks or the Spanish Civil War, where you have ideological factions that are amassing in rural and urban centers.
01:12:52.000Or even, like, the Chilean Civil War, would you call it that, with Salvador Allende, where they came in and they just, in one afternoon, flew bombers over the capital.
01:12:59.000They went in, they said, hey, he killed himself, the new ruler's in charge now, they put in Pinochet, and, uh, Civil War over.
01:13:08.000It was a revolution and I think we're in the midst of a global revolution.
01:13:11.000It's technological It's banking and we're just they're trying they would love to see the u.s Fall into civil war and destroy itself because we're the biggest ball work against global totalitarian technocracy So I think that you're on to something there there there are elements of the left the left-wing People on the left that have the ideology that any populist or any right-leaning people can not be in positions of power.
01:13:36.000You're seeing it in France, Italy, Le Pen, they figured out a way to put Le Pen in jail for a couple years.
01:13:43.000There's a guy in Romania, I guess, that was a populist.
01:13:46.000There's a lot of right-leaning populist type politicians that the left is just trying to Breaking the law and throwing them in jail.
01:13:55.000But what will happen is when the population realizes that their democracy is a sham, they will side with the autocrats.
01:14:06.000They will side with the people that are the authoritarians if they can have a reliable system.
01:14:14.000Yeah, this ties into what you're saying about the fourth turning that after order decreases, people will just seek the strongman.
01:14:22.000Yeah. In whatever form that may be at the moment, and if that's harsh government overreach.
01:14:28.000I'll have to figure out a way to ask that question.
01:14:29.000I'm actually really interested in what the results would be.
01:14:33.000But it's like a vacuum of leadership that is filled by a new generation of leaders that have different value sets than the existing ones, and they reorganize society around a shared cultural vision.
01:14:46.000That's what the fourth turning tells us we're going to see in the next five or ten years.
01:14:50.000It'll be a major change that puts 9-11 basically to shame, because everybody actually liked George W. Bush.
01:15:31.000If every single person was influenced by only a couple of news channels and the news channels kept complaining about government spending, Doge would be a celebration.
01:15:41.000But you have bifurcated culture in this country, and there's two parent factions and then subsets within all of them.
01:15:47.000So you've got libertarians somewhat aligned with the conservatives and post-liberals and whatever.
01:15:53.000And then on the left, you've got the progressives, the socialists, the communists and the Democrats.
01:15:59.000Overwhelmingly, these are two distinct spheres of influence.
01:16:16.000They're not wrong, they're just crazy, and their worldview is nonsense.
01:16:19.000On the right, it's more meritocratic, decentralized, do-your-thing, with a faction that has a strongman.
01:16:28.000And the reason why the right is only just now turning things around is, on the right, people have finally decided to wield power.
01:16:36.000So, typically what you ended up seeing with Trump's early coalition was people like me and Carl Benjamin, who are classical liberals, who are like, no, no, no, we can't do those things, we must maintain order.
01:16:46.000And then after getting beaten in the face over and over again by people willing to break the law and violate the Constitution, we went, wow, you can't actually exist in a society where people don't follow the law, and their law enforcement will not follow the law.
01:17:00.000A lot of people bring up, how is it so easy to arrest Trump's lawyers, yet Adam Schiff and these FBI agents, these intel guys who lied, we can't get a single indictment of these people because they are willing to violate the Constitution and the right typically is not.
01:17:18.000Maybe Trump right now will realize his time is short and he's looking at being a lame-duck president for two years of his term if the Democrats win in 2026.
01:17:28.000And maybe he just says, like he's already been doing, let's go nuclear, issue indictments, arrest these people.
01:17:38.000If Donald Trump waits a year to issue indictments, it will negatively impact him in the election.
01:17:43.000If he does it right now, this year will not even be—no one will remember it.
01:17:49.000There's going to be no—if Trump next month says, Criminal indictment for Adam Schiff, witness tampering, lying.
01:17:56.000There was something that came out with Ratcliffe today that I'm blanking on, but a specific reference about him being a fact witness to the case and there being some potential implications there.
01:18:06.000If you went after Liz Cheney for witness tampering or Anthony Fauci for lying to Congress, he has to do it again.
01:18:14.000Now, because if he does it close to the midterms, there will be an endless campaign commercial of Trump retaliating as a fascist and arresting people to stop them from being influential or winning.
01:18:24.000If he does it now, next year, people are going to go, oh, yeah, when was that?
01:18:47.000Chuck Schumer was out there virtue signaling people tore his head off on Twitter.
01:18:50.000And so he has so much power right now.
01:18:53.000And I don't even mean to do anything autocratic, but he's sitting on a massive set of information that he knows about the stuff they uncovered in the government.
01:19:24.000Once a week they publish information on malfeasance.
01:19:28.000I want them to make the Doge Prentice.
01:19:30.000I want to have Doge featured on linear television.
01:19:35.000They should negotiate with CBS to take over 60 minutes slot at a highly produced show where Trump fires 10,000 people out of the whatever it is this week.
01:19:47.000But something like that because people are following this.
01:19:55.000And we asked how angry are you with the level of waste fraud and abuse in the government that they've seen so far 70% Doge was popular than Trump.
01:20:03.000That's interesting because I thought Musk was polling so far underwater.
01:20:09.000Well, first off Other people do okay with the elections, but I'm pretty sure you can only trust my favorability numbers Everybody else has a sandbag Trump So they'll show like a Trump 44% favorability rating and then put a poll out then he has him polling at 50 It doesn't make sense, but we had Trump When Trump was 53, Doge was 55, Net 11, Trump was like Net 10, Elon was Net 9, but then Elon's dropping.
01:20:34.000He went from like 52 down to I think 45 in the last poll.
01:20:38.000So that's the difference between Teflon Don is that, you know, stuff doesn't just slide right off Elon, it's starting to take a toll.
01:21:22.000I'm sorry, RMG says plus seven and Marquette says minus eight.
01:21:27.000My issue now is, I take a look at these polls in aggregate.
01:21:32.000In Trump's first term, they were all relatively close.
01:21:35.000They were all minus one, minus two, minus three, minus one.
01:21:39.000And so they averaged at two and you're like, makes sense.
01:21:42.000Trump's only minus two because Fox News has him at minus 2, but Gallup has him at minus 10, but RMG has him at plus 7. How could there be so wildly different polls for the same time periods?
01:21:55.000Yeah, it's especially on the non-election stuff.
01:21:58.000Well, the election stuff, especially 2020, was all over the place.
01:22:01.000You'd have like net zero to all the way like Biden plus 16. That was real horse race polling and that's what everybody tunes their results to.
01:22:08.000The truth about polling right now is that nobody's taking an actual random sample.
01:22:13.000There's literally no way to reach millions and millions of Americans anymore.
01:22:17.000Even if you had all this money in the world to just spam everybody with SMS text messages, at the end of the day, what you're getting a sample of isn't the country.
01:22:25.000It's a sample of people who actually respond to spammers.
01:22:28.000So one of the reasons that we think we're more accurate and we do better, first, we're the only one polling approval on a nightly basis.
01:23:13.000And they don't, they're not picking up those swing voters, they're not getting new voters entering, you know, they're trying to manage that.
01:23:18.000And what they're doing is they're creating basically an artificial America.
01:23:22.000And they and us and you gov is another one of the panels, they and us will try and tune the results to the election.
01:23:29.000But I think I'm getting a politically sophisticated, older group of people that are informed and are less normie.
01:23:37.000And because of that, not only did I have Trump approval higher than everybody else, I actually had for most of the time Biden approval higher than everybody else.
01:23:43.000Nobody, nobody wants to, you know, talk about that.
01:23:46.000Like Quinnipiac was out with 33 Biden approval, I had him at like 44. So Can I ask you a bigger picture question about polling?
01:23:55.000So much of politics, media, and narratives are driven by these polls.
01:24:01.000So, for example, Fox News, CNN oftentimes run with whatever polls are based on approval rating, how people are feeling with immigration and whatnot, and these really do drive narratives.
01:24:13.000Do you think the influence of polls is a little bit too stark here with how close politicians are paying an eye to this, how much the media is paying an eye to this, given how fickle they are with how big of a spread they are?
01:24:25.000You know, a lot of politicians and media people really look at polls like the gospel.
01:25:05.000I literally had to give our state polling away almost essentially free to sponsors this time because nobody on the right actually believes or pays for polling.
01:25:13.000All the money on the right seems captive into this consultant class Ouroboros of feeding itself.
01:25:19.000And so what I want is people to pay attention to these polls because it reflects public opinion.
01:26:09.000Even if the pollster is not corrupt, the hill will take your results out of context.
01:26:15.000They put a Harris plus 7 poll headline out in the middle of August.
01:26:20.000When the point of the underlying poll was to prove that when primed with race and gender questions, people were more likely to pick Harris.
01:26:29.000So they literally had a Harris plus one poll, then they said, oh, what about all this other stuff?
01:26:34.000Then they did it again and got Harris plus seven.
01:26:37.000He'll put that as a headline, Harris plus seven.
01:26:41.000Would you, uh, would you, uh, in your life, do you think it is right?
01:26:49.000I want to phrase it, is it good for individuals to try and reduce their carbon footprint or their pollution to be good stewards of the earth?
01:27:34.000Okay, so he opposes the Green New Deal.
01:27:36.000Yeah. Because people don't understand that The Green New Deal was nonsense.
01:27:42.000It included DE&I hiring initiatives based on race, and the argument that minorities are affected by climate change more than white people.
01:27:50.000So, you could actually ask that question, which is specific to one portion of the Green New Deal, and then claim it's support for the Green New Deal, or opposite, you choose.
01:28:48.000And the problem is is that literally everything has been weaponized.
01:28:51.000That's why I call myself the honest pollster.
01:28:52.000I was trying to figure out why we weren't commoditized, and that's literally what it comes down to.
01:28:56.000There are a few other honest people, and I'm not calling all the other ones liars or – but you don't know because it's the way it's being used.
01:29:05.000And you Transparency or in an ivory tower or in this like artificial assertion that they're unbiased Like the first thing I posted on Twitter when I started like tweeting in in in August when I got so I got so mad at all the scummy tactics like they After Kamala Harris got anointed there were two weeks when nobody released a national poll There was like three national polls that came out and I was like, what is this?
01:29:31.000so I came out and like what I said to the future roles that came after me when I first started is that People are biased, but polls shouldn't be, and then they shut up.
01:29:40.000So I don't get attacked by trolls anymore because, yeah, people are biased.
01:29:44.000So you're going to pretend your pollster isn't biased?
01:29:53.000I was talking to Michael Maus the other day, and I was saying that I no longer view myself as classical liberal, but more post-liberal, which is a reference to recognizing the limitations of liberalism.
01:30:06.000And requiring some kind of strong defense of your moral tradition.
01:30:10.000Michael was saying, well, but people usually associate post-liberalism with fascism.
01:30:14.000And so I explained my position and he says, oh, so you're where I'm at, because he's an anarchist.
01:30:19.000And the gist of the conversation ultimately is the majority of people are dishonest, unfortunately.
01:30:28.000I mean, they're honest to certain degrees, but people will lie to get what they want.
01:30:34.000And so when it comes to polls, Most of them, like you're pointing out, are not honorable.
01:31:00.000Then they can put a big false on it, and they can take down any post they want on Facebook.
01:31:04.000Facebook got rid of it, but that's what they were doing.
01:31:06.000And then you have pollsters that will ask questions or prime people in ways that they know will manipulate the results so they can make the claim, so their ideology wins.
01:31:15.000One issue I have had with polls, we talk about on the show from time to time, is when polling will go out for 3,000 people, like what we're just eyeballing here, 3,100.
01:33:02.000I put out 42 different state polls spread across 14 states.
01:33:05.000So you get a really clear picture because I'm taking a sample every time.
01:33:09.000So, it's like, hey, I took Pennsylvania, and I got a plus one, a plus three, a plus two, I'm pretty sure what the result's going to be, and I'm going to tune it to make sure that the results aren't all over the place.
01:33:19.000But how is it that a poll of 1,500 people could be claimed to represent the country, or the general approval of a president?
01:33:29.000Statistically, the 95% confidence interval, meaning 19 out of 20 times, if I run it again, Thank you.
01:33:42.000There's different ways to represent accuracy.
01:33:44.000And that's just a statistical proof of the central limit theorem.
01:33:49.000Simply put, in layman's terms, You do not need to ask every person in the country to have a general understanding of what the population is.
01:33:56.000Exactly. As the sample size increases, you get diminishing returns.
01:33:59.000Right. And so I don't need a 1% margin of error.
01:34:02.000If I get a 3% margin of error, and it's really going to be closer than that, and I'm going to poll a few more times, and that's what I'm going to put out, because I have a limited budget as well.
01:34:12.000And also, on these policy issues, the way I perceive polling is like, here's my results.
01:34:19.000Ian has struggled for years to understand.
01:34:22.000Just to explain, I guess a thousand random people participating in this is surprisingly representative of what it would be if you were to poll a hundred thousand people.
01:34:32.000The accuracy might become marginally more accurate, but just a thousand people would still be surprisingly representative, more than I guess you would expect.
01:36:18.000Now the news media will pick it up and be like, okay, this poll says 47% of these 2000 people believe, and then they'll run the headline, 40% of Americans believe.
01:36:32.000People have unethically distributed our data for sure, but we're kind of in the polling ghetto right now.
01:36:38.000The question is, when you put out, when Rasmussen puts out a approval for the president, is the implication this is a national This is a view of the national population.
01:36:47.000Yeah, it is a sample of U.S. likely voters with a plus or minus three margin of error.
01:36:52.000And if you don't personally think that that represents, then you can prove us wrong in your own poll or do a more expensive...
01:36:58.000I think Ian doesn't like that everybody isn't being polled and it's being said that all the perc...
01:37:02.000You can never poll America ever again.
01:37:06.000Ian's point is that a poll of 1,500 people is not representative of this country no matter what.
01:37:12.000And when the media says it is, they're lying.
01:37:14.000And so the question for the pollsters is, can you poll 1,500 people and are your results representative of America?
01:37:34.000No, but that's – Look at the way these representatives in Congress are failing to represent 700,000 people a piece.
01:37:40.000You might have to get a lesson from a pollster, but that's – I know that the math is terrible.
01:37:44.000I just want to – I'm sorry to interrupt.
01:37:46.000Ian, you are talking to one of the leading pollsters in the world who is explaining to you how the math and science works.
01:37:51.000I don't understand what you're arguing.
01:37:52.000Well, it's like if I come up with a result, 43% think the Civil War is happening in the next five years, right?
01:37:58.000should probably say poll colon civil war america like us likely voters civil wars happening and then but it's on our site rasmussenreports.com so people know you know it's it's just semantics it is a statistical representation of what americans think well it's like it's not just amazing if i said you know not eighty percent of the people in this room think that but i only pulled me and and i guess let's see or let's say there were a hundred of us in here and i said sixty percent of the people in that room believe but i only pulled five people And
01:38:56.000And sometimes people load too much into what the results of a poll mean, but they are statistically relevant, it's an accepted form of journalism, understanding what people think, and they're not the be-all end-all.
01:39:09.000In fact, I would look at other data if I really wanted to know what was happening in election beyond polling, right?
01:39:14.000When a poll uses a representative sample and asks them their opinions and then published it, when the media shorthands Poll shows X percentage of Americans believe this.
01:39:27.000That is how we mathematically, scientifically assess popular public opinion.
01:39:32.000And as he's pointed out, the more people you ask, you get a diminishing return.
01:39:37.000So there is a mathematical formula for the happy number of people you need to ask in a representative distribution to figure out the likely, within a margin of error of three points, opinion of this country.
01:39:51.000So the media is not wrong when they say Paul shows.
01:39:54.000Oh, but if a guy sees a poll of 1,500 people and they're like, oh shit, it says exactly what we want the world to think everyone thinks, let's make an article and say everyone thinks it, that's total manipulation.
01:40:03.000But Ian, it would show the same thing if they polled 100,000 people is the point.
01:40:31.000This all started with a really great discussion that you had, I think, about the redefinition of politics and what the political spectrum is and what it's turned into.
01:40:41.000That's an important part of the discussion that I think is happening.
01:40:46.000People trust me because I talk to them and I show them what's going on and I try to answer their questions.
01:40:50.000But at the core of it is just my sincere representation of integrity.
01:40:55.000Like I'm trying to do a good job and I feel bad if I fail and also our business would probably not exist if I failed.
01:41:04.000And that's I don't know if you call that right or left politics anymore.
01:41:08.000But my take on what I think we're seeing is that where the right has gotten to, and they weren't there eight years ago, is that they're very careful about being intellectually honest and trying to get to an honest answer about things.
01:41:20.000Yes. And the left is fall in line or get out.
01:41:23.000Yeah. I mean, you can see that with not just the stuff that goes on on Capitol Hill and in Congress, but even like in the Supreme Court.
01:41:30.000Everyone knows how the left-leaning judges are going to rule.
01:41:34.000You may be interested in hearing how their reasoning goes, but you know where they're going to come down on almost every issue.
01:41:42.000Very, very rarely do the left-leaning justices surprise anyone.
01:41:49.000You know, the right-leaning, or centrist, or conservative, or however you want to classify them, they're the ones that will actually surprise you.
01:44:27.000Wow. It was ridiculous looking, but I love her.
01:44:30.000I can't believe I just said that on the air.
01:44:32.000I've heard that this is a kind of maybe wrong, but that in times of when humans need to repopulate, they'll just start having more twins, that there's just more likelihood of it to happen.
01:44:59.000Jacob Hawley says, Wisconsin GOP is kicking out anyone who worked with TPUSA and Scott Pressler.
01:45:04.000Milwaukee GOP, which is MAGA, is being defunded by the state GOP, and they took Elon's money and used it to prop up new establishment county GOP wings.
01:45:13.000State GOP gave phone numbers of early voters.
01:45:20.000The number one enemy to American First Movement is Republicans, establishment Republicans, from so many MAGA candidates who are just like, well, you know, the state party rules everything.
01:45:33.000If you want to run, they're going to push you out.
01:45:35.000They're going to run a squishy moderate candidate because they think that that's who wins.
01:45:39.000And oh, by the way, it's all about the consulting deals.
01:45:41.000And then RNC, RGA, NRCC, like nowhere to be found.
01:45:46.000And then all the things you see on Twitter, all these big names are just a drop in the bucket compared to what needs to be built or changed in order to make MAGA the predominant ideology in Republican Party.
01:46:01.000I'm surprised that there are still so many So many of the old guard Republicans in positions of authority and positions of influence.
01:46:13.000I wasn't surprised after Trump lost in the 2020 election, however you want to call it, whether Trump lost or Biden stole it, I don't care, whatever you want to say.
01:46:23.000But I wasn't surprised that there That was like a last grasp for power.
01:46:27.000Now, after four years of seeing the way the Democrats behave and the clear victory that Trump had, it was because of Trump and the kind of MAGA movement, the America First kind of people.
01:46:41.000It surprises me that there are still Republicans that aren't doing their best to get on board.
01:46:49.000The New Clarence says, Happy birthday, Ian!
01:46:51.000You are one of the three other people who I have found that share a birthday.
01:46:54.000Here's to another trip around the sun.
01:46:55.000By the way, look up skeleton graphene super caps.
01:48:07.000I don't know the details, but I do believe that it's essentially going to be a city Full of religious Muslims, and they will be attempting to be as autonomous as they can possibly be in Texas.
01:48:34.000I mean, if they're doing things like Sharia law that are antithetical to our values, I think that's an issue.
01:48:39.000Well, that's that's I think that that is why people are concerned.
01:48:43.000I don't know what their actual plan is, but the people that are upset or that are worried about it, they're probably worried about, you know, you have to wear a burqa in the street or, you know, virtue police or whatever.
01:48:53.000I think these no-go zones, too, that, you know, that we saw in Europe, I don't think people want to see happening here.
01:49:01.000Amish places are never no-go zones, but I think there might be a fear of these turning into something like that.
01:49:06.000Ray JLB says, The meme is, oh no, a child is crying.
01:51:21.000Thomas Massey, Thomas Massey's perspective is not because he has some kind of bone to pick with Donald Trump.
01:51:26.000It's because he has What he believes are principled opinions, and he stands by them.
01:51:32.000It's not about, oh, I don't like Donald Trump.
01:51:33.000There are plenty of things where Thomas Massie has been like, no, I want to work with Donald Trump on this, I want to work with Donald Trump on that, and he's been complimentary.
01:52:47.000And everybody's like, I just want to go over there and kill some I mean, it was literally like, you know, the Team America meme came out and everybody was saying they're good.
01:55:11.000Yeah. Are there circumstances where there's just like some guy who's a massive expert in his field?
01:55:17.000Let's say there's a guy who Was a police officer he enlisted he did combat he came back joined a private military company Worked with that company on on private missions ended up becoming one of the top PMC's running security operations for the government Could they go to him?
01:55:34.000He's a high school dropout and say, we're going to commission you to be an officer in the armed forces.
01:56:13.000Unagreeable generalist leaders are what I think corporate America means more of, and that's what the idea of – Being an officer cultivates a very strong mindset of making decisive decisions based on limited information, being able to balance right versus wrong.
01:56:32.000Isn't there a risk of demoralization when the guy who comes in who's never been at this base before starts doing things that the enlisted know is going to screw things up?
01:57:13.000And so if I go from one sub to another, and it's different, I know that, well, I don't know this reactor.
01:57:19.000I've got to go read the procedure and stuff like that.
01:57:21.000And in corporate America, it's just a free-for-all.
01:57:25.000And yeah, the college people, that is a problem.
01:57:29.000Even back in 05, You know, we weren't allowed to talk politics in the wardroom.
01:57:34.000Like, it was just, we weren't allowed to.
01:57:36.000But this one guy came in, he was from OCS, which means you just came out of college, you went to, like, indoctrination for 12 weeks, and then, congratulations, you're an officer.
01:57:46.000And in the middle of one of the meals, he's like, oh yeah, I worked on the Carrie campaign.
01:58:58.000Yeah. You know, a lot for somebody that's on a boomer to say they love it, they love it.
01:59:04.000But man, I'll tell you, you know, about a third of officers at the time were coming out of the academy.
01:59:10.000And what there began a very, like revolving door to corporate America, like a, an industry of junior military officer recruiters feeding people into blue chips.
01:59:20.000And In 2004, I think it was, they started this individual augmentation program because they didn't have enough officers over in Iraq.
01:59:28.000So Bush basically made it where if you're a Navy officer, your next shore duty, which is where you're supposed to recharge your batteries, is going to be bomb disposal in Afghanistan or Iraq, in Baghdad.
01:59:42.000So my decisions were like, put my wife through my Middle East deployment or get out of the Navy.
02:01:09.000Crazy. Semper Ives says the expert type of commissioned officer is called a chief warrant officer, but they get their commission a little differently.
02:02:02.000You can follow me on X and Instagram at TimCast.
02:02:04.000Mark, do you want to shout anything out?
02:02:06.000Yeah, if you can tell from tonight, there's no filter.
02:02:09.000I tell you exactly everything I think, and that's important, I think, for a pollster, because there's so much dishonesty in the industry and the way that polls are used in the industry.
02:02:18.000So if you like that, follow us at Rasmussen underscore poll.
02:02:55.000I'm not saying that they generally were like, Okay, because he's doing a lot of general labor, we'll call him the general, but I just noticed that correlation.