Timcast IRL - Tim Pool - Trump Signs GLOBAL Tariffs, Trade War Goes NUCLEAR As Market TANKS w-Mark Mitchell | Timcast IRL

00:02:14.000 Donald Trump has signed global tariffs!

00:02:17.000 And, you know, Democrats and everybody, they're losing their minds.

00:02:20.000 They're saying, we are now facing a new Great Depression.

00:02:23.000 The market tanked rather dramatically.

00:02:26.000 And they're reporting that 401Ks took a massive hit off of this.

00:02:31.000 Now, Donald Trump says, this is to combat tariffs, trade manipulation, and trade barriers.

00:02:36.000 So these are reciprocal tariffs targeting other nations with trade deficits and tariffs on us.

00:02:43.000 Either way.

00:02:44.000 Trump's calling it Liberation Day.

00:02:46.000 The Democrats are calling it Recession Day.

00:02:49.000 And, oh boy, if you didn't check your 401k or look at the market in the past hour or so, bless your heart, it's getting pretty brutal out there.

00:02:58.000 But a lot of people are suggesting on the right that this is short-term pain for long-term gain.

00:03:03.000 Either way, we'll see how this affects the midterm because we just had a big election in Florida and Wisconsin, and the Democrats won the Supreme Court in Wisconsin.

00:03:12.000 Many Republicans now fear they're going to gerrymander the states and take away two congressional seats from the Republicans, so we'll talk about that.

00:03:17.000 But voter ID did win.

00:03:19.000 The Republicans did win in Florida.

00:03:21.000 We've got a bunch of other stories, mind you, and we will get into all of those.

00:03:25.000 Before we do, we've got a great sponsor.

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00:04:20.000 Talk with one of their strategists today.

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00:04:22.000 Stop the threatening letters.

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00:04:30.000 Call 1-800-958-1000 or visit tnusa.com slash tim.

00:04:38.000 April 15th is just around the corner, my friends.

00:04:41.000 Act now before the IRS acts first.

00:04:43.000 Also, check out casprew.com.

00:04:45.000 We got delicious coffees available.

00:04:47.000 Ian's Graphene Dream is back in stock, selling like hotcakes, as it usually does.

00:04:51.000 Appalachian Nights, stand your grounds.

00:04:53.000 Don't forget, you got two weeks till Christmas, starring Phil Labonte as Santa Claus.

00:04:58.000 I know it's been several months since Christmas, but can you believe it's actually April already?

00:05:02.000 That's crazy.

00:05:03.000 And don't forget to join the Discord server at timcast.com.

00:05:06.000 Be an active participant.

00:05:08.000 Do not just be a passive observer.

00:05:11.000 This is why we lose midterm elections and special elections, because people come in in November, they vote, and they say, I'm done.

00:05:17.000 They watch the news, they know what's going on, but they're not actively participating.

00:05:21.000 So whatever it is you gotta do.

00:05:22.000 One thing you can do is you can join us at TimCast.com, get in the Discord server, hang out with like-minded individuals, learn, build, share your ideas.

00:05:31.000 That's one way to do it.

00:05:32.000 Don't forget to also smash that like button, my friends.

00:05:36.000 Share the show with everyone you know.

00:05:37.000 Joining us tonight to talk about this and so much more is Mark Mitchell.

00:05:40.000 Hey, good to be here.

00:05:42.000 Who are you?

00:05:42.000 What do you do?

00:05:43.000 My name is Mark Mitchell.

00:05:44.000 I'm the head pollster of the nationally renowned independent pollster Rasmussen Reports.

00:05:49.000 Right on.

00:05:50.000 So this should be very interesting.

00:05:52.000 Rasmussen has been...

00:05:53.000 that's how you pronounce it, right?

00:05:54.000 Rasmussen? Yeah, it rhymes with Assmussen.

00:05:57.000 Ah, okay.

00:05:57.000 I always said Rasmussen.

00:05:59.000 Yeah, I did too, until they hired me.

00:06:01.000 And now I might as well change my last name.

00:06:04.000 They're one of the most accurate pollsters over the past couple election cycles.

00:06:08.000 It's been pretty interesting.

00:06:09.000 Yeah, we do pretty well.

00:06:10.000 They've been called very biased for the right, though, but they've been correct. 1.00

00:06:13.000 Yeah. There you go.

00:06:15.000 That happens.

00:06:15.000 Should be interesting.

00:06:16.000 Ilad is joining us, White House correspondent.

00:06:18.000 Hey, good evening, everybody.

00:06:20.000 I am Ilad Eliyahu, White House correspondent here at TimCast.

00:06:23.000 Happy to be covering the White House.

00:06:25.000 Happy to be here tonight.

00:06:26.000 Ian. Mustache looking fresh.

00:06:28.000 Let me just say real quick, the anger from the left and the corporate press that Ilad simply asked a couple of questions in the White House, it is, I don't know.

00:06:39.000 Delicious. Their tears sustain me.

00:06:40.000 It is a paradigm.

00:06:41.000 Hopefully more tears to come, so.

00:06:43.000 Yeah, what a story, man.

00:06:44.000 They're gonna make movies and write...

00:06:46.000 Books about this time in history.

00:06:48.000 So do your best and be one of those great, memorable, heroic characters in the story of your life and ours.

00:06:53.000 I'm Ian Crossland.

00:06:54.000 Happy to be here.

00:06:54.000 Phil Labonte.

00:06:55.000 Hello, everybody.

00:06:56.000 My name is Phil Labonte.

00:06:57.000 I'm the lead singer of the heavy metal band All That Remains.

00:06:59.000 I'm an anti-communist and counter-revolutionary.

00:07:01.000 Let's get into it.

00:07:01.000 Here we go, ladies and gentlemen, from the post-millennial Liberation Day.

00:07:04.000 Trump announces reciprocal tariffs on every nation, 25% tariffs on every foreign-made auto.

00:07:11.000 This is massive.

00:07:13.000 Let's play this clip.

00:07:14.000 April 2nd, 2025, will forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn, the day America's destiny was reclaimed, and the day that we began to make America wealthy again.

00:07:31.000 Gonna make it wealthy, good and wealthy.

00:07:34.000 For decades, our country has been looted, pillaged, raped, and plundered by nations near and far, both friend and foe alike.

00:07:43.000 American steelworkers, autoworkers, farmers and skilled craftsmen.

00:07:47.000 We have a lot of them here with us today.

00:07:50.000 They really suffered gravely.

00:07:52.000 They watched in anguish as foreign leaders have stolen our jobs. 0.89

00:07:57.000 Foreign cheaters have ransacked our factories and foreign scavengers have torn apart our once beautiful American dream. 1.00

00:08:05.000 We had an American dream that you don't hear so much about.

00:08:08.000 You did four years ago.

00:08:09.000 And you are now, but you don't too often and for many years and decades, even you didn't hear too much about our country and its taxpayers have been ripped off for more than 50 years.

00:08:21.000 But it is not going to happen anymore.

00:08:24.000 It's not going to happen.

00:08:30.000 In a few moments, I will sign a historic executive order Instituting reciprocal tariffs on countries throughout the world.

00:08:39.000 Reciprocal. That means they do it to us and we do it to them.

00:08:44.000 Very simple.

00:08:45.000 Can't get any simpler than that.

00:08:49.000 This is one of the most important days, in my opinion, in American history.

00:08:55.000 It's our declaration of economic independence.

00:08:59.000 For years, hardworking American citizens were forced to sit on the sidelines as other nations got rich and powerful, much of it at our expense.

00:09:09.000 But now it's our turn to prosper, and in so doing, use trillions and trillions of dollars to reduce our taxes and pay down our national debt.

00:09:19.000 And it'll all happen very quickly.

00:09:22.000 With today's action, we are finally going to be able to make America great again, greater than ever before.

00:09:29.000 So I'll show you some of those reciprocal tariffs that we have.

00:09:34.000 I think we have it right here.

00:09:35.000 And so this is what they've presented.

00:09:37.000 You can see that they say tariffs charged to the U.S., including currency manipulation and trade barriers, and they've listed it for each country.

00:09:44.000 Madagascar, 93%.

00:09:47.000 The U.S.

00:09:47.000 will give a discounted reciprocal tariff of 47%.

00:09:51.000 Now, men on the left have started claiming things like this.

00:09:55.000 James Surowiecki, I'm not sure if he's actually, I don't know if he is, what is it, Wisdom of the Crowd says, a fast company?

00:10:00.000 Is that where he's at?

00:10:01.000 Okay, so he's a leftist, Atlantic.

00:10:03.000 It's important to understand the tariff rates the foreign countries are supposedly charging us are just made-up numbers.

00:10:08.000 South Korea, with which we have a trade agreement, is not charging a 50% tariff on U.S. exports, nor is the EU charging a 39% tariff.

00:10:16.000 Which he then says he figured out where these fake tariff rates come from.

00:10:20.000 They didn't actually calculate tariff rates plus non-tariff barriers.

00:10:24.000 They said that instead for every country, they just took our trade deficit with that country and divided by the country's export to us.

00:10:30.000 So we have $17.9 billion trade deficit with Indonesia.

00:10:33.000 Its exports to us are $20 billion.

00:10:35.000 17.9 divided by 28 equals 64%, which Trump claims is the tariff rate Indonesia is charging us.

00:10:41.000 What extraordinary nonsense this is.

00:10:44.000 I don't think you need to look too deeply into it.

00:10:46.000 Trump is signing tariffs.

00:10:48.000 Because there are trade manipulations.

00:10:50.000 That's a simple way you can put it.

00:10:52.000 We also have this banger of a clip from Donald Trump.

00:10:55.000 Likewise, an old-fashioned term that we use, groceries.

00:10:58.000 I used it in the campaign.

00:11:00.000 It's such an old-fashioned term, but a beautiful term, groceries.

00:11:03.000 It sort of says a bag with different things in it.

00:11:06.000 Groceries went through the roof.

00:11:08.000 And I campaigned on that.

00:11:10.000 I talked about the word groceries for a lot.

00:11:14.000 It's a bag with different things in it.

00:11:16.000 I didn't realize that was an old-fashioned term, but alright.

00:11:19.000 He may not have seen a bag of groceries for a long time, who knows?

00:11:22.000 I gotta be honest, that's probably it.

00:11:24.000 Trump hasn't seen groceries, he thinks it's old-fashioned because the last time he went to the store and actually filled the bag was when he was a little kid.

00:11:29.000 I just picture a big brown paper bag filled up, that rectangle with celery sticking out the top.

00:11:35.000 Or a baguette, if you're in France.

00:11:37.000 A baguette.

00:11:39.000 I'm down.

00:11:41.000 I looked at my stock portfolio today.

00:11:44.000 And I started laughing.

00:11:46.000 It's down.

00:11:47.000 You know what I mean?

00:11:48.000 It's been down.

00:11:49.000 But I think, you know, I don't know how I feel about global tariffs to this degree.

00:11:57.000 Tariffs on various products, I think, are generally good.

00:12:00.000 And I'm generally a fan of tariffs.

00:12:02.000 So I say, let's roll.

00:12:03.000 I don't know.

00:12:03.000 What do you guys think?

00:12:06.000 So if this is a successful policy, we're not going to know for a long time.

00:12:14.000 The goal is to, you know, return manufacturing, a manufacturing base in the United States.

00:12:20.000 I think that that is extremely important.

00:12:23.000 The fact that we don't have specifically, you know, things like, um, like semiconductors, right?

00:12:29.000 Like, like chips that you need that to make any kind of modern computers, which is, is, is, you know, ubiquitous in, in military, uh, hardware and stuff, that kind of stuff.

00:12:43.000 Has to be made in the United States.

00:12:44.000 We can't allow a You know our military to be shut down Because you know if China decides to take Taiwan or whatever these kind of things happen like that is that is national security It's a national security imperative.

00:12:59.000 We make plenty of food here So the idea that you have to make you know, we have to do tariffs for for agriculture or something like that I don't think that that's necessary but The goal is to return manufacturing base to the United States and people have been complaining forever that, oh, you know, they ship jobs overseas, they ship jobs overseas.

00:13:19.000 The only way you can get companies to bring, if I understand correctly, the only way you can get companies to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. is to do things like tariffs or get rid of minimum wage, get rid of unions, get rid of all of the things that essentially No, not at all.

00:13:44.000 We just pulled on it not that long ago.

00:13:46.000 And the numbers were just completely – it's like, should we charge tariffs or not?

00:13:52.000 It was like 33% yes, 33% no, and then everybody else was just, I don't know, it doesn't make sense, I'm not sure.

00:13:58.000 But his messaging was on point because he talked about grievances, he talked about jobs, and nobody's looking – listen, if you've got a stock portfolio, you're very likely a Harris voter.

00:14:08.000 And this is something that he's been prepping people for.

00:14:11.000 You're saying Trump voters don't have stock portfolios?

00:14:14.000 I'm just saying looking at the demographic signals, older, higher educated, higher income overwhelmingly went.

00:14:23.000 Yeah. And so, I mean, Trump, it very much was a working class thing.

00:14:27.000 And this election was about basically the economy in a way that previous elections like weren't even.

00:14:35.000 We asked, are you better off than you were four years ago?

00:14:38.000 The typical question, the answer was like 35%.

00:14:40.000 Will today's children be better off than their parents?

00:14:43.000 22%. So just absolutely off the chart, horrible numbers.

00:14:46.000 And so I think this is one of the things that they're going to trust Trump on.

00:14:50.000 Like, this is why they put him into office and nothing that's happened so far has affected his numbers.

00:14:55.000 So everybody's happy.

00:14:57.000 It's the best polling of his political career.

00:15:00.000 Yeah, he came in strong and he's got 50, 51% approval rating right now.

00:15:04.000 I think it's just going to stay there.

00:15:06.000 People know who Trump is.

00:15:07.000 They've thrown everything at him.

00:15:08.000 And listen, if anything that we've seen in the last two months isn't going to do it, I don't think this will either.

00:15:14.000 I'm usually a free trade guy.

00:15:17.000 So I usually do have a little bit of beef with these tariffs.

00:15:20.000 But I think what Trump's real move here isn't to ultimately try to bring back manufacturing because I also don't think tariffs would ultimately do that.

00:15:27.000 I think Trump's trying to do an art of the wind style reduction of tariffs from other countries back onto this.

00:15:33.000 I believe he did this in his first term too.

00:15:37.000 Obviously these tariffs from other countries onto our economy isn't a good thing, but I feel like for a long time we justified it because our economy was so powerful.

00:15:45.000 And to these countries with nascent, you know, different markets developing and want to protect their, I don't know, date market.

00:15:52.000 I'm just making something up.

00:15:53.000 They put up a high tariff to try to not get dominated by our very powerful market.

00:15:57.000 And we accepted that because we used to buy out a lot of countries for their essentially allyship with us.

00:16:02.000 And we'd actually sell them arms and kind of have a deal.

00:16:06.000 It's a different trade, but what I think the ultimate goal here, and we'll learn very soon if it works or not, is if these other countries remove their tariffs.

00:16:12.000 I don't think this at all is a play to bring back manufacturing, and if it is, then I think it's actually not going to work, so...

00:16:19.000 Why do you say that?

00:16:20.000 Because that's essentially the line that the administration says.

00:16:23.000 I think it's a popular thing to tell people, like, hey, we're going to bring back the jobs, but at the end of the day, like, even a 25% tariff wouldn't make I think?

00:16:35.000 to onshore semiconductor manufacturing here.

00:16:38.000 But when the Taiwan Semiconductor Company tried to do it here, they ended up essentially calling the Americans workers lazy and not being able to keep up with their operations over there.

00:16:47.000 So some societies are specialized to do things.

00:16:49.000 And it takes a long time to develop, for example, a car manufacturing plant.

00:16:53.000 These are huge capital investments initially.

00:16:56.000 It takes 10 years plus to actually develop the field.

00:16:59.000 And I think, again, this is really more just negotiating technology.

00:17:02.000 I think you're right, Elon.

00:17:17.000 In order for this to be effective, Trump needs a third term.

00:17:19.000 Well, half of Republicans are game.

00:17:23.000 We ask that.

00:17:24.000 I got to be honest.

00:17:28.000 Aside from a constitutional amendment, what is the actual reason, an honest question, why we limit presidents to only two terms?

00:17:37.000 FDR. The ethical reason?

00:17:40.000 He was bad?

00:17:40.000 They kept voting for him?

00:17:41.000 It was just because people decided that they didn't like the fact that he had three or whatever terms.

00:17:48.000 They said it seemed too much like Dictatorship if somebody were to get keep getting reelected and I guess the idea is the same thing with like congressional term limits Once you become a president for three or four terms I feel like you are so powerful and you're able to already accomplish so much and and benefit from your legacy and Yeah,

00:18:08.000 I think the cap the idea of the it was unofficial for since George Washington the two and then FDR broke it during obviously very intense times I don't know if Trump's serious or just trying to stoke media attention when he suggests that I personally think that he's only trying to stoke media attention.

00:18:25.000 And also, it gives the progressive that really hate him, it gives them something to hate on him for.

00:18:31.000 And so it takes the attention off of, say, you know, the stock market or, you know, it basically, you know, moves along the news.

00:18:39.000 Have you guys poll tested a third term?

00:18:41.000 Yeah, absolutely.

00:18:42.000 We just asked not that long ago.

00:18:43.000 We said, would you favor repealing the 22nd Amendment?

00:18:47.000 Do people know what it is?

00:18:49.000 Well, we said in the question, so somebody can run for another term again.

00:18:51.000 I think it was in the 30s, but 52% of Republicans said, hell yeah.

00:18:55.000 Wow. I wonder if they would have said that before November 4th of last year when Biden was president.

00:19:00.000 Because it means Trump ran against Obama.

00:19:02.000 Which is where we're going next.

00:19:05.000 If Trump does run for a third term, Obama's coming back.

00:19:07.000 Yeah, exactly.

00:19:08.000 If Trump sets a precedent that it's okay, the next guy might run for four terms.

00:19:12.000 That's the real conspiracy.

00:19:15.000 Trump is working for Obama and is going to say, I'm going to run, I'm going to do it again.

00:19:19.000 That way Obama wins his third term and says the tradition is broken.

00:19:23.000 So I just, I looked it up and there was a tradition of no more than two terms.

00:19:28.000 It was considered honorable.

00:19:30.000 And then FDR was like, I'm going to keep going.

00:19:32.000 And then people kept voting for him because I guess, all right.

00:19:34.000 There was a fear that what would end up happening is a president who could run for unlimited terms could use the power of the executive branch to stop any legitimate competition.

00:19:43.000 A strongman basically then says, this guy's actually polling against me, arrest him, charge him with whatever crime, and make my opponent this puppet.

00:19:52.000 And you get what we see in other countries.

00:19:54.000 We would have for sure saw Obama, third term Obama, if that was the case.

00:19:57.000 In 2016 he would have won for sure.

00:19:59.000 He was so popular.

00:20:00.000 What's that?

00:20:01.000 That's kind of what Biden was.

00:20:02.000 I think Putin's been democratically elected, allegedly, in Russia a few times since 99. And this is basically the argument.

00:20:10.000 If you can run indefinitely and you have no honor, like FDR, you're just going to keep running even though you're supposed to stop, you can just constantly be up against awful candidates that you prop up.

00:20:21.000 Then you get the DNC and the RNC teaming up and they say, we all have a shared agenda, it'll be your guy this time, and we're going to put up the worst candidate imaginable so your guy wins as often as he wants to.

00:20:31.000 What ended up happening, though, the two-term 22nd Amendment didn't actually stop what happens.

00:20:35.000 What ends up happening is the DNC and the RNC get together and then say, this time our guy, next time your guy, but we agree they'll do the exact same things.

00:20:42.000 Obama's gonna claim to be anti-war, but he's gonna blow up a bunch of kids.

00:20:45.000 Deal. It's funny how it only applies to the executive branch and not the legislative branch.

00:20:53.000 Oh, they can stay in.

00:20:54.000 However, you know, they're not going to accumulate power.

00:20:56.000 They're not going to accumulate corruption.

00:20:57.000 Yeah, the power, the accumulated power, literally like the connections, the people, you know, that will do things for you because of who you are, your position.

00:21:04.000 And they know if they know you're going to be there for a long time, it's like, dude, let's, let's make a deal, bro.

00:21:09.000 You got me 10 years down the line.

00:21:10.000 Let's go.

00:21:11.000 I'd like to show you, we'll jump to this next story.

00:21:13.000 The economic Trump has found a bonkers new defense for his extreme tariffs.

00:21:37.000 Well, people like Trump.

00:21:40.000 And if a group, an impaneled group of experts say, dare I say, the tariffs are bad, and then Trump goes, you're wrong, tariffs are good, people are going to be like, Trump, you know, I'm sick of the credentialist class.

00:21:52.000 Oh, for sure.

00:21:53.000 You got to follow the real information.

00:21:54.000 That's the most important thing.

00:21:55.000 Tiffany Cianci was on the show last week.

00:21:57.000 If you haven't seen her work, she's fantastic.

00:21:59.000 She'll be here tomorrow.

00:21:59.000 She's great.

00:22:00.000 And she was basically showing like, oh, expect another depression coming like 2008. 0.78

00:22:05.000 Uh, she believes there's about to be a collapse, economic collapse.

00:22:08.000 They might use the tariffs as a scapegoat, but that people have been packaging.

00:22:12.000 Ah, gosh, I wish I could remember exactly how she's describing it.

00:22:14.000 Packaging like mortgages.

00:22:16.000 It might be another mortgage scandal.

00:22:17.000 It's not a mortgage this time.

00:22:18.000 It's, it's, uh, in, um, um, I don't remember the exact, the details of, but it wasn't mortgages.

00:22:24.000 It was, it was retail.

00:22:26.000 There was a lot of retail.

00:22:27.000 Commercial mortgage-backed securities, CMBS.

00:22:29.000 What is there?

00:22:30.000 Commercial mortgage-backed securities, I've heard that as well.

00:22:33.000 And I've also heard a lot about municipalities levering up and that stuff getting repackaged into things that get sold back to pensions.

00:22:40.000 Same principle as the mortgage-backed security, though.

00:22:42.000 The problem is that it's bad debt that was repackaged as good debt.

00:22:47.000 And super high leverage.

00:22:48.000 In 2008, it was like, yo, The economy is about to experience a Great Depression, you guys.

00:22:52.000 We need to bail them out by printing a crapload, trillions of dollars, whatever, to pay Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, these loan agency companies.

00:22:59.000 Pay them back.

00:22:59.000 Not only that.

00:23:00.000 Whatever. They were doing quantitative easing for a decade.

00:23:07.000 Interest rates were at zero for 10 years to prevent a recession.

00:23:13.000 From 2008 until, essentially, I think it was like when Donald Trump got in, so it was like 2017 is when they actually started This is a direct line to what you just talked about and Trump.

00:23:32.000 Because that's essentially corporate welfare.

00:23:35.000 I actually ran, I went to Fred and looked at some statistics, and I looked at the median income of America, like just the average person in the middle of America, and I put a ratio of their per capita total government debt over that, and the number was like relatively flat at like 0.5 up until 2008, up until the bailout and quantitative easing.

00:23:56.000 And so you have this situation where Yeah.

00:24:01.000 Yeah. That's why Trump's in office and all that money that went into the economy It was being loaned at 0% or whatever Wealthy people were taking that money and they were they were taking loans at super super low interest rates and

00:24:31.000 then buying stock with it So that stock we had a much higher return because the stock market they didn't want to see the stock market tank So they kept pumping money in and people were borrowing money at super low rates and buying stock so if you went and and had you had ten years of essentially if you had You had some money and you had good credit, and I'm talking about a couple million dollars you get a loan for.

00:24:55.000 Take a million dollars, dump it in the stock market, a couple years later you got a million and a half, two million or whatever.

00:25:02.000 Rich people like when the market crashes for a variety of reasons.

00:25:05.000 They're insulated from it.

00:25:07.000 They're wealthy so they can buy what they need when they need it.

00:25:09.000 The price of milk and eggs doesn't faze them.

00:25:12.000 But here's the best part.

00:25:13.000 If you take out a $100,000 loan, To buy a house.

00:25:17.000 Let's say it's 20 years ago.

00:25:19.000 And you make $100,000 a year.

00:25:21.000 Let's say you saved up 100% of your money.

00:25:23.000 Let's just say you worked for one year and you saved $100,000, but you financed the house.

00:25:29.000 You say, I want a $100,000 loan.

00:25:31.000 You put the $100,000 you saved actually into the stock market where its value goes up with inflation as the market Depending on how the market operates, you can short, so they're insulated from this, but inflation in general, or a market crash, can be manipulated so that the money they have through shorts or through just general stock and inflation goes up.

00:25:49.000 The value of the house stays at $100,000, or the debt, I'm sorry.

00:25:55.000 And as the dollar inflates, the amount of money the average person has to get paid goes up.

00:26:01.000 That means the amount of labor You owe to pay back the house goes down over time.

00:26:06.000 The US does this with bonds.

00:26:09.000 That's what quantitative easing basically does.

00:26:10.000 Hey, take a loan from us, the US government says $1 billion.

00:26:15.000 $1 billion can buy you 100, you know, widget factories, then they quantitative ease inflate the currency and now that billion dollars can only buy 50 widget factories.

00:26:25.000 So the loan was bad, but the US still has the still has them under their under their financing, right?

00:26:31.000 So I'm butchering this, but the general idea is, if you're wealthy, when inflation occurs, the debt you have is, the number looks the same to the average person, but to the wealthy person, they're not calculating dollars, they're calculating buying power.

00:26:48.000 That's how it plays out.

00:26:49.000 So for the working class person, that house now is, and here's the best part too, that $100,000 you owe, the buying power is diminished. 0.83

00:26:59.000 So that means if everything becomes more expensive, You can make that money, you can make more money than that easier because everybody else is, but now the value of the house has gone up to $300.

00:27:07.000 And the working class person, they're looking at dollars like dollars. 0.98

00:27:11.000 They can't buy that house because it went from $100 to $300.

00:27:14.000 There was a story I was reading on Reddit where a guy said he was saving up to buy something, a tablet or a computer, and then after he finally got two-thirds of the way to the savings, and he was like, one more month, the price jumped on Amazon.

00:27:26.000 And he was like, I can't get it.

00:27:28.000 I can't buy it.

00:27:29.000 It's nuts.

00:27:30.000 That's what it's like for the working class when these things happen, but the rich, they don't care.

00:27:33.000 The rich, when they, the only time the rich suffer, well I don't know about the only time, but the big thing that'll cause the rich to suffer in that...

00:27:39.000 scenario you're talking about is if they're borrowing and they're investing on margin, which is what you're talking about, Phil, where you take a loan out and then you invest with that loan, assuming that it's going to return.

00:27:47.000 If that stock market crashes while your loan is in that, you lose it, and then you owe money back to the bank, you can't afford to pay back, and they start taking your stuff.

00:27:55.000 And that's what happened in 1929.

00:27:57.000 People were defaulting on their...

00:27:59.000 They were investing on margin, though.

00:28:01.000 On their margins, yeah, they're taking out loans to invest.

00:28:03.000 And then when the market...

00:28:04.000 So what happened in 08, they're like, crap, We need to make sure that that market does not collapse, because everyone on margin right now will go under.

00:28:10.000 So they just print a bunch of money, which they couldn't do in 29. They didn't really, like, this is, I've heard that the Great Depression was, that the Federal Reservists used that as an excuse to take, like, you need us so that we make sure you'll never, your stock market will never crash again.

00:28:24.000 You can't allow just the government and real money because it's too risky.

00:28:28.000 That was their, you know what, you know what Trump's doing with this?

00:28:31.000 I think all the stories are just BS. 1.00

00:28:33.000 I think the Democrats are getting whipped into a frenzy by saying Trump's policies are dumb. 0.96

00:28:39.000 I think that the Republicans saying no tariffs this tariffs that are missing the big picture. 0.93

00:28:43.000 Trump with this global tariff move is intending to stab the liberal economic order in the heart.

00:28:49.000 One of the principal components of the liberal economic order was create a network of international trade agreements that make it very difficult to engage in international conflict.

00:28:59.000 And for whatever reason you want to subscribe to or prescribe, Donald Trump doing this is basically saying, we will cut all of those ties if we must.

00:29:08.000 Now maybe it's for the betterment of this country, whatever it is, but this is a nuclear bomb on what we would refer to as the liberal economic order, the deep state, or whatever.

00:29:17.000 It is exactly.

00:29:18.000 Obama was going to sign this thing called the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which you guys may have heard of, and there's this thing in it.

00:29:23.000 What's that?

00:29:23.000 The TPP?

00:29:25.000 2012-ish?

00:29:26.000 There's a sector, there's a thing in it called the Investor State Dispute Settlement Clause.

00:29:31.000 So if you had an investor in a country, the country being the state, it would give the power of the corporation to sue the country.

00:29:36.000 If their people were discriminating against their product.

00:29:38.000 And it was in order to give essentially to give Malaysian oil companies the power to sue the United States government if we wouldn't buy their oil or something.

00:29:45.000 And then we as a taxpayer would have to pay this Malaysian oil company.

00:29:48.000 Obama was signing that.

00:29:49.000 And Trump is eviscerating that monster for better or worse.

00:29:53.000 Like you said, Tim, it could have horrific geopolitical instability, but It's like they say, you're going to feel short-term pain and...

00:30:02.000 Well, I'll put it this way.

00:30:03.000 If the liberal economic order was a bunch of well-reasoned Captain Picards, I'd have no problem with it. 0.98

00:30:08.000 But it's not. 0.89

00:30:09.000 It's a bunch of crackpot DEI communists. 0.97

00:30:11.000 And robber barons. 0.99

00:30:12.000 And robber barons.

00:30:13.000 So it's not an issue of the method of trying to build a sustainable global network of trade that diminishes conflict.

00:30:20.000 On paper, that seems nice.

00:30:22.000 But then you realize a bunch of DEI race communists are trying to utilize this system. 0.97

00:30:28.000 Maybe it's because the control went, it got out of control or whatever, but I'm not so interested in living under the boot of a bunch of psychotic communists. 0.81

00:30:37.000 I think this is about he's signaling it's about jobs.

00:30:40.000 I think that's smart.

00:30:41.000 I think there's going to be short-term economic pain and he knows that and he's probably trying to get through it as fast as possible.

00:30:47.000 But I came out of retail and I don't know if this stat is still accurate, but I heard as much as 95% of all skews on the non-grocery part of your average Walmart or China.

00:30:57.000 And we know what Amazon is doing with China, essentially, people list a new product and it's been accused that very rapidly, they'll offshore, they'll create their own version, they'll undercut them.

00:31:08.000 And so I think there's this aspect of wealth and power concentration.

00:31:11.000 And to make it even more perverse, like bringing it back to Bernanke, I worked in VC.

00:31:16.000 And a lot, you'd see these massive venture capital overvaluations, because assets were trying to seek It's We're good.

00:31:41.000 Valley workers, H-1Bs, MBAs, bank accounts in very massive amounts.

00:31:47.000 So you have potentially the pension money for public employees going to create – and then you get this aspect of – There was a lot of best practice sharing coming out of technology companies into the major corporates, a lot of cross-pollinization of these ideas.

00:32:03.000 And I think it's one of the engines that really built Woke into the entire Fortune 500, essentially, because what Silicon Valley was doing was cool, everybody had to become a tech company, and then it got this political aspect to it.

00:32:16.000 And it all stems back from central planning, a focus on maintaining economic stability, Meanwhile, the middle class gets gutted and all their jobs get stolen.

00:32:26.000 Actually, let's do this first.

00:32:28.000 I want to pull up this story from Mediaite.

00:32:31.000 The Democrats' response to Trump's tariffs.

00:32:34.000 It's recession day.

00:32:35.000 Hakeem Jeffries hammers Donald Trump's liberation day.

00:32:39.000 Warns economy about to crater.

00:32:42.000 Really? Says we were told that grocery costs were going to be going down on day one of Trump's presidency.

00:32:47.000 Costs aren't going down in America.

00:32:48.000 They're going up.

00:32:49.000 It's actually not true.

00:32:50.000 A lot of things have gone down.

00:32:52.000 And the Trump tariffs are going to make things more costly in the United States.

00:32:55.000 House Republicans, Senate Republicans, and Donald Trump haven't done a thing to lower the cost of living in this country.

00:32:59.000 Not a single bill.

00:33:00.000 Not a single executive order.

00:33:02.000 Blah, blah, blah.

00:33:03.000 That's technically incorrect, but I just want to pull up because, you know, you mentioned Mark Fred.

00:33:08.000 Here's the M1 money stock.

00:33:11.000 Take a look at 2020.

00:33:13.000 So this was during Trump's term.

00:33:16.000 And then take a look at 2020.

00:33:18.000 at the money supply.

00:33:19.000 So this was largely due, this spike, when they basically said savings accounts are now checking accounts.

00:33:24.000 The money supply exploded.

00:33:26.000 Meanwhile, economic activity collapsed.

00:33:29.000 So this is the COVID era.

00:33:31.000 If you want to talk about what Democrats had been doing over the past four years, fine.

00:33:36.000 But they've got no leg to stand on right now, as Donald Trump is making moves only two months in, and they had four years and only expanded.

00:33:46.000 and exacerbated the problem.

00:33:48.000 The doge thing, I mean, that's Trump's big attempt at righting the American economy is doge.

00:33:55.000 And it's like, if you don't want to see that, if you're not interested in believing that that's possible, that's a form of cognitive dissonance.

00:34:02.000 It really is an attempt to stabilize our deficit to zero, ideally.

00:34:08.000 Maybe it's $2 trillion, it'll be $1 trillion next year, and then maybe we can get it down that we're actually, that our debt is going down.

00:34:14.000 And exacerbated the problem.

00:34:16.000 That's the biggest plan, is that reduction in corruptive spending.

00:34:19.000 Other stuff, I don't know if Jeffries has pointed out, he hasn't made any big moves with making car manufacturing cheaper or whatever.

00:34:27.000 It's just a more holistic, I think, approach he's taking right now.

00:34:30.000 Let me just say, to the point, Democrats opened up the borders.

00:34:34.000 The country was flooded with low-skill labor that not only was displacing people's jobs, they started using tax funds to supply these people with resources Americans did not have.

00:34:46.000 This strained the economic system, reduced the Americans' buying power, because...

00:34:52.000 I know most...

00:34:53.000 The challenge with these issues is that, you know, as we already discussed, most Americans don't know what tariffs are.

00:34:59.000 So, most people don't understand.

00:35:01.000 That if you have, let's say that you have a small town with only a hundred dollars that exists.

00:35:06.000 It's all there is a hundred dollars.

00:35:07.000 That means your economic activity and the value of those dollars is tied to that finite scarce number.

00:35:13.000 If someone comes in and adds another hundred, you do not double your corn or your homes.

00:35:20.000 You actually just increase the amount of trade units, which makes the buying power of the other people cut in half.

00:35:28.000 When they start giving illegal immigrants free housing and government money, what happens to you at home is that your milk prices go up. 0.98

00:35:36.000 Your egg prices go up.

00:35:37.000 Demand for these things go up, but the volume of them does not change, so the prices start rising.

00:35:43.000 This is what Democrats did to you over the past four years.

00:35:46.000 Trump's been in for two months, and they won't shut up.

00:35:49.000 And they're acting like...

00:35:50.000 You know what I love about Hakeem Jeffries' statement?

00:35:54.000 He said, Prices were going up and Trump didn't think about it.

00:35:57.000 It's like, oh, wow, geez.

00:35:59.000 So the prices went up under your watch.

00:36:02.000 Yeah. They're up because of you.

00:36:04.000 And it's like, imagine a guy punches you in the face.

00:36:07.000 And then when you call the cops and the cops are walking up the door, it's like, look, that cop hasn't done anything yet.

00:36:12.000 How come?

00:36:12.000 How come you're bleeding from the nose?

00:36:14.000 And it's like, because you punched me, dude. 0.86

00:36:16.000 That's Democrats.

00:36:17.000 Well, I mean, that's that's typical politics.

00:36:20.000 The left is always the Democrats.

00:36:22.000 Well, the party out of power are always going to blame the party in power for whatever negative thing is happening, no matter how long it's been.

00:36:30.000 Like as soon as Trump the day when Trump was saying on day one, these things are going to happen.

00:36:35.000 And on day two, they were like, look, Trump's a failure already.

00:36:38.000 He said this was going to happen, etc.

00:36:39.000 And you kind of expect that when it comes to like the political arena.

00:36:43.000 But it doesn't change the fact that the Democrats have done nothing So I really think there's only one thing that could slow down the President Trump administration,

00:37:12.000 and that's if he hits on a recession, obviously.

00:37:16.000 Allegedly, you're not even supposed to say the word because it'll encourage recession to happen.

00:37:19.000 But there's a lot of mitigating circumstances right now that tariffs might add to a more turbulent situation.

00:37:27.000 So, for example, in the Red Sea, World Trade is being interrupted right now by the Houthis. 0.99

00:37:33.000 We have our stock market that's extremely overvalued right now, particularly the Magnificent Seven or what have you, are extremely overvalued.

00:37:41.000 Now we're throwing the tariffs on top of this. 0.72

00:37:44.000 What a time we're seeing political geopolitical conflict around the world.

00:37:47.000 I think if a recession starts happening is what could get people to turn on Trump and prevent him to from accomplishing these other things.

00:37:55.000 So I just really hope he knows what he's doing with these tariffs and I hope to see these actually be rescinded in a few months when these other countries take back their tariffs.

00:38:04.000 I think that'll calm down the market a lot and we won't fall into something like that.

00:38:08.000 But again, there's a lot of mitigating circumstances right now that could push us push our economy I think we're reaching the extent of the professional class's ability to define things the way they want them to be defined.

00:38:23.000 Because I can tell you, he's been talking about tariffs for a long time.

00:38:28.000 The stock market's been going up and down a long time.

00:38:30.000 I think these numbers were framed late last week.

00:38:32.000 How do you rate President Trump on the issue of the economy?

00:38:35.000 30% excellent, 18% good.

00:38:38.000 I think it was only 33% good.

00:38:40.000 Poor, so that's really great marks.

00:38:42.000 That's how I guess what scared me you heard about the auto tariff tax So I guess if you're gonna be buying a car in the near future, you're going to be hit with what a 10 15 now I'm percent price.

00:38:52.000 Well, I'm just saying it's not affecting his numbers And I think what people have invested in is a major economic rebalancing That's gonna break some eggs.

00:38:58.000 Like if Elon is cutting a trillion dollars out of the deficit.

00:39:02.000 That's like 3.6 percent of GDP So you can't not have a recession if he's going to fulfill his mission.

00:39:08.000 And then on top of that, I mean, listen, it's just the stock market doesn't define the economy anymore.

00:39:16.000 The stock market really doesn't hit the middle class and working people because most people that have stocks are, you know, upper to...

00:39:24.000 I think most people don't actually, I forgot what the numbers were, most people don't actually have much or if anything above like $10,000 in savings.

00:39:30.000 And I think it's indicative of...

00:39:31.000 When the markets, you know, the trading at like 26 times earnings is what it's been trading at, there's, it needs a correction.

00:39:37.000 Yeah. This is something that actually a healthy market will do.

00:39:40.000 It should normally, historically, it's something like 16 times earnings or something like that.

00:39:44.000 A bunch of companies need to go back.

00:39:45.000 Bankruptcy needs to be more velocity, there needs to be more disruption.

00:39:49.000 But that happening under the Trump administration would be horrible.

00:39:51.000 For the Trump administration?

00:39:53.000 I think it would be bad for the economy.

00:39:54.000 We need a correction.

00:39:55.000 A correction would be very bad for Trump.

00:39:57.000 We need a grand scale universal correction.

00:40:02.000 Here's what I want to stop.

00:40:03.000 I want you all to hear me please, because I know you agree.

00:40:07.000 No longer do I want to hear stories about a BuzzFeed reporter getting $90,000 a year.

00:40:13.000 No, no longer do I want to hear about unemployed an NGO making million dollars a year doing legal work in Loudoun County, Virginia.

00:40:21.000 I want to hear about pay raises for firefighters, pay raises for people who work manufacturing jobs.

00:40:27.000 And so the funny thing is, as Mark, you mentioned that Harris voters tend to be, you know, higher income and things like that.

00:40:35.000 The media industry is overwhelmingly liberal.

00:40:38.000 Academia is overwhelmingly liberal.

00:40:39.000 These people wouldn't know what a callous was if you showed them your own hands.

00:40:43.000 They would just think you were deformed, because certainly that's not a real thing that happens to people.

00:40:47.000 I would like to see a grand correction where everything realigns back to those who do hard work are successful in this country.

00:40:55.000 The man who is buying a nice filet mignon with herb butter is a guy who builds things for a living and works hard and earns that reward, not some uppity liberal moron who's never worked a real job in their life and they're an aide in Congress or they work for a media publication where their job is to literally complain on camera to millions of people and they make exorbitant sums of money.

00:41:17.000 Money. Could you imagine someone like that?

00:41:19.000 These kind of people, they're permanent children.

00:41:21.000 They probably wear the same clothes every day.

00:41:23.000 They wear beanies everywhere they go.

00:41:25.000 They skateboard at 40 years old.

00:41:27.000 The people who are making millions of dollars should be first responders, firefighters, police, service men and women.

00:41:34.000 Now that's a grandiose view, but I'll put it simply, and I know there was a joke in there.

00:41:38.000 My point is, when I hear that you've got these liberal journalists at these publications making six figures, And a guy who used to work on an assembly line for auto manufacturing lost his job because they sold the factories to Mexico.

00:41:52.000 I'm like, that guy!

00:41:54.000 He's building cars that we need.

00:41:55.000 He should be feeding his family.

00:41:58.000 He should be having kids.

00:41:59.000 He did everything right.

00:42:01.000 Yet it is the uppity, well-to-do liberal working for a company where they produce nothing of value who is reaping the rewards of the system.

00:42:07.000 I'll go one step further.

00:42:08.000 It's not the liberal.

00:42:09.000 It's the person with absolutely no moral rudder who's willing to suck up to a game and a system in order to get ahead without considering the moral ramifications.

00:42:19.000 Here's, this is what people signed up for with Trump.

00:42:22.000 And I'll tell you just the mass deportation plan, massively deflationary.

00:42:27.000 That's baked into, that's what he's going after.

00:42:29.000 That's baked into his platform.

00:42:30.000 And that's one of the best things that you can do to get those people increased wages.

00:42:35.000 And guess what?

00:42:36.000 It's not going to happen.

00:42:37.000 So I'm calling on Congress today.

00:42:39.000 Republicans, like, give us a vote on E-Verify.

00:42:42.000 Let's get E-Verify.

00:42:44.000 It's overwhelmingly popular.

00:42:45.000 The number's like 60 to 70% every time we ask.

00:42:48.000 It could go a long way to self-deportations.

00:42:51.000 We don't have to have Tom Homan bust all these people's doors down.

00:42:55.000 We can have these people leave immediately today.

00:42:58.000 And what I heard from somebody I know I trust within the Beltway is that it'll never happen because Republicans love their slave labor.

00:43:05.000 Yep. Well, the MAGA party seems to be a bit different, though.

00:43:09.000 Maybe we'll see something change with Donald Trump?

00:43:12.000 Well, I think in Trump's speech, even today, he was talking about more legal immigration.

00:43:16.000 I don't know how that plays into this, so I'll run on that, actually.

00:43:19.000 Increased legal immigration is also astoundingly unpopular.

00:43:23.000 Like, even numbers below 30% of Democrats want an increased level of legalization.

00:43:28.000 Even among Democrats?

00:43:29.000 Yes. Really?

00:43:30.000 Wow. You mentioned that this is a deflationary tactic to remove people, not citizens, people from the country.

00:43:36.000 And I agree.

00:43:37.000 So the difference between deflation and recession, because I feel like we've been in a recession since 2008.

00:43:44.000 It's just that on paper, the number's going up.

00:43:46.000 In reality, the value is going down.

00:43:48.000 So it feels like our value has been receding.

00:43:51.000 What is it?

00:43:52.000 Like now we're doing a controlled burn?

00:43:55.000 Deflation means...

00:43:56.000 Deflation's not the same thing as a recession.

00:43:59.000 Deflation literally means you're taking money out of the monetary supply.

00:44:02.000 Like you're reducing the number of zeros on the book, basically.

00:44:06.000 That's deflation.

00:44:07.000 I mean, now the buying power goes down.

00:44:09.000 And a recession, that's more uncontrolled.

00:44:10.000 That's like, yo, things are happening out of our control.

00:44:12.000 A recession is, very specifically, I think two consecutive quarters of negative nominal GDP growth.

00:44:19.000 And if you Zap 3.6% of GDP, which is government spending, by removing $1 trillion.

00:44:25.000 Like, you're getting a recession on paper.

00:44:27.000 And they'll also inflate the value of GDP by having one guy dig a hole, and then they'll pay another guy to fill it back up, and they'll be like, look, gross domestic product.

00:44:34.000 That's not real, uh, what do you call the opposite of recession?

00:44:38.000 That's not real, like, prog- It's not, uh, productivity.

00:44:41.000 Yeah, it's not productivity, but even though they'll call it that, so obviously that's been inflated too.

00:44:46.000 Yeah, I think it's time to just accept that we've been in a recession for a long time, and now we're trying to stem the bleeding.

00:44:55.000 The bleeding being the inflation that's been going on.

00:44:58.000 Let's jump to this next story from CNN.

00:44:59.000 Ladies and gentlemen, I have good news.

00:45:00.000 If you are concerned about Trump's agenda getting through, if you are worried that Democrats will obstruct him, fear not.

00:45:07.000 For the Republicans, nine of them have joined with Democrats to make sure Trump never wins.

00:45:11.000 Because they believe that they deserve special DEI privileges.

00:45:15.000 That's right.

00:45:16.000 Nine Republicans teamed up with Democrats so that new mothers in Congress will be allowed to work remotely and vote outside of Congress, which is unconstitutional, I believe is despicable, and it is the epitome of DEI. 0.62

00:45:31.000 They are quite literally saying, instead of just resigning from Congress to take care of your family, Their voices are a requirement to the diversity in Congress.

00:45:42.000 And because of their different lived experiences as women, they require special rules that only apply to them. 1.00

00:45:49.000 Speaker Johnson suffers defeat as GOP rebels tank effort to block remote voting for new parents.

00:45:54.000 Johnson's pissed.

00:45:55.000 He's saying instead of Congress trying to combat these judges and help Trump's agenda, they are now jammed up because Rep.

00:46:03.000 Anna Paulina Luna believes she had because she had a child.

00:46:06.000 She should get special privileges in Congress. 0.99

00:46:08.000 I'm extremely offended by this.

00:46:10.000 I believe that if you want to be in Congress, either don't have kids for two years.

00:46:14.000 And if you want to have kids, simply resign.

00:46:16.000 But here we are now jammed up, not working on getting through Trump's agenda.

00:46:21.000 After Republicans just lost the Supreme Court Wisconsin, and there's a very real fear that the slim majority will be lost in 2027, this is what we get because 9GOP decided they wanted to be Democrat Marxists. 0.50

00:46:35.000 Yeah. It's

00:47:34.000 And the opportunity to vote by proxy.

00:47:36.000 But between these nine Republicans and and Massey last time voting against the CR, I don't understand why these Republicans cannot get on the same page to pass the Trump agenda.

00:47:45.000 Please, guys.

00:47:46.000 Well, Massey's a different story.

00:47:48.000 But when it comes to stuff like this, lining up with the Democrats to be like, oh, you know, we need this specific these carve outs for us for because we have children.

00:47:58.000 If you're going to become a public servant, you have to plan you should Have a great day.

00:48:16.000 You know, became the Secretary of Transportation, and he decided to take, what, a couple months off because he went out and he bought a baby, right?

00:48:25.000 Like, you can, especially Buttigieg, like, he could plan that far better than...

00:48:31.000 And neither parent actually had the baby.

00:48:32.000 Yeah, exactly.

00:48:33.000 Like, women, you know, maybe they can, they'll accidentally get pregnant or whatever. 1.00

00:48:38.000 At least there's an excuse.

00:48:40.000 Oh, well, we weren't planning it, but whatever.

00:48:42.000 You should be responsible enough to be like, all right, I'm taking this time in my life to be a public servant, so I'm gonna make sure that I don't get pregnant, that I don't have small children.

00:48:52.000 It shouldn't be a big ask.

00:48:54.000 Or you let your constituents down and you don't show up for the vote, and they'll remember that when they vote again.

00:48:58.000 No, because they resign.

00:49:00.000 Or resign.

00:49:00.000 If it was military command, which I kind of see Congress, I know they're civilians, but they're guiding the military economic force of the world, they should treat it like frontline military operations.

00:49:10.000 They should be there, like, Clockwork every day.

00:49:14.000 They are needed on the duty.

00:49:15.000 They should be on duty and I just I mean I could maybe they could have a proxy come in and vote for them No, like designate my assistant will be there on this day to vote for me in person.

00:49:25.000 It's way better than doing it remote I wonder what the real story here is because Representative Annapolina Luna usually hates the Democrats. 1.00

00:49:33.000 I think former Freedom Caucus goer, so I think there might be something else here.

00:49:38.000 Or I think it's just interesting how Democrats are able to kind of pull on the heartstrings of some of these Republicans on issues that they have affinity with them on.

00:49:46.000 Well, Democrats ubiquitously vote as a bloc.

00:49:49.000 And Republicans always seem like they can't ever do that.

00:49:52.000 And I don't know all the details.

00:49:54.000 I don't know the backstory.

00:49:55.000 There might be something or might not.

00:49:57.000 I don't really care that much about this issue.

00:49:58.000 But it's like, why are we hearing about this and not a SAVE Act?

00:50:02.000 Not about Darrell Issa's bill to try and get rid of judicial overreach.

00:50:07.000 I can tell you that voters, 65% of them love the idea of deporting violent gangbangers.

00:50:13.000 They want this judge impeached by two to one margin.

00:50:16.000 And And I'm not getting the feeling from Congress that it's DEF CON 1 down there.

00:50:21.000 So it's like, if Republicans understand how existential this election was, and the very beautiful gift that Donald Trump has given them, which is a platform more popular than Republicans have ever been, if they can't get behind this and break a little sweat, like, that's what I'm concerned about.

00:50:38.000 Yeah. Indeed.

00:50:40.000 It should be an easy, easy decision.

00:50:43.000 Democrats are communists and they're...

00:50:47.000 I mean that in the sense of, well, they're a cult.

00:50:50.000 They abide by what the group tells them to abide by.

00:50:53.000 Republicans do not. 1.00

00:50:54.000 And so you end up with Democrats winning because all it takes is a couple of Republicans to pull stupid garbage stunts like this. 1.00

00:51:00.000 And I'm going to say it again. 1.00

00:51:02.000 The Republicans are supposed to be the party of family, recognizing the differences between men and women.

00:51:07.000 And here we are now with nine Republicans being like, nah, women should get special rules. 1.00

00:51:11.000 This is what happens to this country.

00:51:14.000 Every single time it comes down to the question of duty and responsibility, this country shifts towards giving privileges to special classes instead of equality.

00:51:24.000 And this is what they're asking for right now.

00:51:27.000 The Democrats and the GOP are trying to get special privileges based on class, based on a class of identifiable persons.

00:51:35.000 That's illegal.

00:51:37.000 You should not be able to say, because you're a woman, you get to vote remote or by proxy. 1.00

00:51:43.000 I'm offended by this. 1.00

00:51:44.000 Yeah, it's dumb. 0.97

00:51:46.000 This is maybe even a tangent, but like, it used to be, I've brought this up before the show, the founding fathers, the first people that served in Congress, were all men. 0.96

00:51:54.000 If there was kids being born, they were at home with the mom. 0.83

00:51:57.000 Then at some point, women came in, and you have to accommodate, for they might have a baby. 0.99

00:52:02.000 How are they going to lead the military if they're the baby? 0.75

00:52:05.000 They have the baby on their arm.

00:52:07.000 And obviously Congress isn't directly leading the military, they're just funding it and deciding how it gets funded.

00:52:11.000 And they're mostly the ones that authorize war or not.

00:52:14.000 It's very important that they're there and available for duty.

00:52:18.000 I mean, especially considering how infrequently they actually have to be there.

00:52:22.000 What were you saying?

00:52:22.000 There was 10 legislative days in lunch?

00:52:25.000 Ten legislative days in April.

00:52:25.000 We just lost three of them because they, I don't know why, but they kicked the next vote into next week.

00:52:30.000 And I'll tell you, again, I just don't know why it came up, because my understanding is that almost every vote, they know what day it's going to be, they can plan around it, they, you know, so...

00:52:39.000 Hire a babysitter? 0.96

00:52:41.000 Yeah, exactly.

00:52:42.000 Get a place in D.C. They all have places in D.C. usually.

00:52:46.000 Yeah, they just got to row the tiger ship. 1.00

00:52:48.000 It's because Congress is a bunch of lazy pieces of garbage. 1.00

00:52:51.000 They are lazy people who don't want to do their jobs. 1.00

00:52:54.000 The real job of a member of Congress is to fundraise. 0.89

00:52:57.000 They get on the phone all day and they say, give me money, give me money, give me money, and then they never actually do their jobs.

00:53:02.000 The only thing they do outside of give me money is they go on the floor, they stand at their podium and say, rabble, rabble, rabble!

00:53:09.000 Rabble rabble! 1.00

00:53:10.000 Can you give me the clip so I can post it on social media so I can make money?

00:53:13.000 That's Congress.

00:53:15.000 None of them do their jobs.

00:53:17.000 There's like five, ten maybe.

00:53:20.000 I can see the value of agility of government.

00:53:23.000 Like they were doing military strike on Signal.

00:53:26.000 It's easier than, hey, let's all report to the, let's all go to the Pentagon at 4pm so we can sit down, talk about something for eight minutes, and then get up and leave, and then we'll have our battle plans in order.

00:53:36.000 They just do it on Signal.

00:53:37.000 They can do it Instant so much quicker great for military because you're remote So there's a value to quickly being able to get a vote out.

00:53:44.000 It's just it just I don't know.

00:53:46.000 It doesn't seem like a secure Tactic, but I'm open to you know, the evolution of governance.

00:53:50.000 It doesn't have to always be in person in the same building It doesn't you know, maybe if it's life and death and you have to look as quick.

00:53:57.000 Maybe you have to go remote I like the idea of the representatives having to be there to cast the vote and I think that they should be there to cast the vote like I don't think that they should be allowed to remote vote.

00:54:07.000 I don't think they should be allowed to have someone else vote for them.

00:54:10.000 You have your job, just like Tim said, the vast majority of their job is fundraising.

00:54:16.000 Go to D.C. when there are votes because they're scheduled.

00:54:20.000 You know when they are.

00:54:22.000 You can make arrangements.

00:54:23.000 Go to D.C. when you're supposed to be there to vote.

00:54:26.000 That's the whole point of your job.

00:54:29.000 You're supposed to be able to vote on bills.

00:54:32.000 Make sure that you're there.

00:54:33.000 That's not too much of an ask.

00:54:34.000 There's probably only going to be three of them this year.

00:54:36.000 Yeah, right?

00:54:37.000 Maybe we should just get, look, we've got Congress that won't do their jobs. 0.96

00:54:41.000 We have judges that are acting like they have more power than the president.

00:54:44.000 I think it's simple.

00:54:45.000 We just simply abolish the Article 2 and 3 of the Constitution.

00:54:49.000 The United States as an organization.

00:54:52.000 Or actually, I think Articles 1 and 3. You know, and it's a funny thing to hear somebody saying yes, but I bet there's people thinking that.

00:54:57.000 There are people that are so frustrated, they're like...

00:54:59.000 Sorry, it's Articles 1 and 3. Silly me.

00:55:01.000 Of course, that's why it makes more sense. 0.88

00:55:04.000 Article 1 is Congress, Article 3 is the Judiciary.

00:55:07.000 Yep, just gone.

00:55:08.000 All powers vested in one man, and his family, and his kids.

00:55:13.000 You know, it used to be like that.

00:55:14.000 A government would...

00:55:15.000 Let's go to the monarchy!

00:55:16.000 Their rules, it would get to a point where people couldn't take anymore and they'd just shred the whole thing and start a new one.

00:55:20.000 Usually they would end up hanging the king too.

00:55:23.000 Yeah, we've got a system where you can revolutionize the governance within the governance itself.

00:55:28.000 You don't have to like tear it down to rebuild.

00:55:30.000 Ideally, you know, you can break pieces and parts off with amendments and, you know, revocation of acts and things like that.

00:55:37.000 So that's the, that's the boring...

00:55:38.000 Have you guys talked about this a lot, monarchy?

00:55:41.000 No, we're joking.

00:55:42.000 But we've got a dysfunctional Congress and a rogue judiciary.

00:55:47.000 So let's just zoom out.

00:55:50.000 According to Democrats, the executive branch has gone rogue.

00:55:53.000 According to literally everyone, Congress is dysfunctional and doesn't work.

00:55:57.000 And according to the right, the judiciary...

00:55:59.000 No, just the one person.

00:56:00.000 And then according to the right, the judiciary is whacked out of its mind.

00:56:04.000 Well, actually, the Democrats agree with the Supreme Court being whacked out of its mind.

00:56:07.000 I'll add one more.

00:56:07.000 We have two million unelected people that think they control the government.

00:56:10.000 And they're just leeching off of our economy and everybody else.

00:56:14.000 Who are those people?

00:56:16.000 The fifth column, the deep state, the bureaucracy.

00:56:19.000 That's really the problem.

00:56:21.000 And so, listen, my politics are, I'm a pollster.

00:56:24.000 I believe in public opinion.

00:56:26.000 I think democracy makes sense for that.

00:56:30.000 But there's aspects of this that doesn't work.

00:56:33.000 And it needs to change.

00:56:35.000 And I think Society will correct the change.

00:56:38.000 It's just a question of how.

00:56:39.000 And so what I've been following is signs of potentially, I'm a believer of the fourth turning idea of how this is developing.

00:56:47.000 And history tells us...

00:56:49.000 Civil War, you say?

00:56:51.000 Yeah, we've pulled on it a lot.

00:56:53.000 I'm worried about it.

00:56:53.000 Really? Yeah, we've pulled on civil war.

00:56:56.000 But I think one of the big signs I think that we're in this is the complete flip of 18 to 39 year olds who went from like 30 to 40 points Harris to Just, you know, a decade ago, or Hillary Clinton, to now, Donald Trump actually had a 60% favorability rating with 18 to 39 year olds like a month ago.

00:57:14.000 Like they are now the highest approving people of Trump.

00:57:16.000 And they're also the most likely to say that the country's in the right direction.

00:57:20.000 So the problem is, is for fourth turning, right after a crisis, you have a very high need for order, and a high need for Supply and demand of order because you just fixed a major problem like World War two over time because things are good It's a golden age the demand for order decreases, but you still have order.

00:57:40.000 Yeah, then it all comes falling apart And so what we have now is maximum demand for order and zero supply Let me jump to this tweet real quick so we can carry this conversation.

00:57:50.000 We've got this tweet from Colin rug He says Alec Baldwin declares the US is in a pre-civil war culture.

00:57:55.000 I'm gonna pause right away Alec Baldwin made a very calm statement on social media.

00:58:00.000 Conservatives are insulting and deriding him. 1.00

00:58:02.000 This is the stupidest thing I've ever heard. 1.00

00:58:03.000 You can rag on the guy for his attitude. 1.00

00:58:06.000 You can rag on him for being a hothead for his politics.

00:58:08.000 But to say that he declares something.

00:58:10.000 He says, I watched a show and they said that we were in pre-Civil War culture and I kind of think that's the case. 1.00

00:58:15.000 And then you've got the actor took a break from being bossed around by his wife.

00:58:20.000 I get it.

00:58:20.000 You don't like the guy.

00:58:22.000 But we can listen to what people we disagree with have to say.

00:58:26.000 Here's what he said let my hand to pick up the remote and turn on my television Sorry and watch Ken Burns famous famous miniseries And boy you can see now that we are in a pre-civil war culture now They describe Things back then,

00:58:54.000 politically, there were profound differences, of course, in terms of just history and age and, you know, what life was like back then and cotton and slavery and Lincoln and Robert E. Lee and so forth.

00:59:15.000 There's just so many.

00:59:17.000 This incredible story.

00:59:19.000 Awful that this country had to go through that.

00:59:22.000 Awful. But as a story is just overwhelmingly powerful and fascinating But I look at the politics of it of where people are in this country today In the division and how they're holding fast and no one's going to falter no one's going to break or Compromise and it's bad.

00:59:50.000 He's not wrong He said, I watched a series.

00:59:53.000 I saw what it was like in the Civil War.

00:59:54.000 We're in a pre-Civil War culture.

00:59:56.000 Both sides are dug in.

00:59:58.000 Neither is going to back down.

01:00:00.000 The fact that the response to him saying something that is just a blanket statement about the current culture war is met with tribal derision, I think exemplifies exactly what he's saying.

01:00:10.000 But what he's actually trying to say is we're in a period called Civil Strife.

01:00:15.000 One that I did not make this up, though I talk about it quite a bit.

01:00:19.000 I'm curious, you mentioned that you've polled on this issue of civil war.

01:00:23.000 What are you seeing?

01:00:24.000 This is what separates us because we just don't do the election horse races.

01:00:28.000 We're actually concerned about like the future of America and how people think because the Overton window moves all over the place on all kinds of topics.

01:00:35.000 And it's been weaponized, especially with all these info ops.

01:00:39.000 So the net effect of the Biden administration was to take the question, how likely is it that a civil war We'll see a civil war in the next few years.

01:00:46.000 From low 30s up to the highest number that we ever saw was 43%.

01:00:50.000 So that's a pretty big number.

01:00:52.000 During the Biden years.

01:00:53.000 Before Biden, it was in the 30s.

01:00:55.000 Yep. And after Biden, it was in the 40s.

01:00:57.000 43%. 43. I couldn't find the 43% number.

01:01:00.000 This one was like from April of last year.

01:01:03.000 16% very likely, 25% somewhat.

01:01:06.000 Only 20% say not at all likely.

01:01:09.000 And I mean, the Republicans or a majority say, yeah, 54%.

01:01:15.000 There was this poll that was done for each region.

01:01:20.000 There was the Northeastern region, the South, the Southwest, there was the Midwest, and there was the Pacific Northwest.

01:01:29.000 They polled each region and by political alignment, whether they wanted their region to secede to form its own country.

01:01:40.000 And it was hilarious.

01:01:42.000 In the Northeast, Democrats overwhelmingly said we should secede.

01:01:47.000 In the South, Republicans overwhelmingly said we should secede.

01:01:50.000 In the West, Pacific Northwest and West, Democrats overwhelmingly said we should secede.

01:01:55.000 The only place that was independent and wanted secession was the Midwest.

01:02:03.000 But I actually, it's fascinating where we are with AI these days, because what I did was I actually pulled all of the numbers for each region, Yes.

01:02:21.000 something like two to one.

01:02:22.000 Most people in this country believe that their region should be independent from the rest of the country.

01:02:29.000 You see things like that, which are not so much about civil war, but about self-determination.

01:02:34.000 You see efforts to secede in general or break away from their states.

01:02:39.000 You see the ongoing conflict. 0.99

01:02:41.000 And then it's fascinating to me that somebody would look at what Alec Baldwin is saying and call him a moron. 0.99

01:02:45.000 They're literally bleeding Kansas right now in Tesla dealerships. 0.99

01:02:49.000 They're bleeding Tesla.

01:02:50.000 Like, this is how the Confederacy behaved.

01:02:53.000 Well, it wasn't the Confederacy.

01:02:57.000 John Brown was an abolitionist. 0.66

01:02:59.000 He brought his children to Kansas to murder people.

01:03:02.000 And he's a hero.

01:03:03.000 Abraham Lincoln arrested the Maryland legislature that was sympathetic to the Confederacy, arrested journalists, threatened to arrest a sitting Supreme Court justice, and created suspension of habeas corpus between Pennsylvania and D.C. He's a hero. 0.98

01:03:17.000 John Brown was probably crazy.

01:03:18.000 Who was? 1.00

01:03:19.000 John Brown was probably crazy. 0.99

01:03:20.000 He was absolutely crazy. 0.99

01:03:21.000 He was a hero growing up, too. 1.00

01:03:23.000 Listen, this guy was so dumb. 0.98

01:03:26.000 Look, I can sympathize with abolitionism, but this guy took over the Harper's Ferry Armory And when a train pulled through, he was like, they can go, they're fine. 1.00

01:03:34.000 And what happened?

01:03:35.000 The train then went and said, help!

01:03:37.000 Call the feds!

01:03:37.000 They've taken over an armory!

01:03:39.000 He would have succeeded in the seizure of the armory if he did not let the train leave.

01:03:43.000 That's what people sometimes don't understand about like modern war and how things can escalate.

01:03:47.000 If you don't go all the way, you die.

01:03:51.000 Here's a fun one.

01:03:52.000 And that is the horror of domestic violence.

01:03:54.000 Here's a fun one.

01:03:56.000 West Virginia should not exist.

01:03:58.000 West Virginia was a part of Virginia.

01:04:00.000 When the Civil War happened, Virginia conscripted and called to combat young men.

01:04:05.000 The voting-age males left the region that was now West Virginia to go fight.

01:04:12.000 Once they were away, the remaining people who weren't fighting said, should we vote to secede and join the Union?

01:04:17.000 Yeah, let's do it.

01:04:18.000 So these people who were called to fight in a war...

01:04:21.000 It's beautiful.

01:04:22.000 And look, I think it's around three to five percent of the South were slave owners.

01:04:25.000 So these are people who were just called up by their state for active duty.

01:04:29.000 They came home to find they were no longer part of their home state anymore.

01:04:33.000 It's absolutely wild, the things that went down in the Civil War.

01:04:37.000 Yeah. And the Supreme Court ultimately said to Virginia after the war, screw you, West Virginia's gone.

01:04:42.000 What's crazy is how much the calculus has just changed in a year, right?

01:04:46.000 Because you almost feel like if it had happened a few years ago, it would have been like, A straw breaks the camel's back, MAGA flips out, there's some kind of violent protest, and then the police state cracks down on it, and then it pops off.

01:05:01.000 But here it's like, pretty easy to say that the military and police would side with Trump.

01:05:08.000 Like, very easy to say.

01:05:10.000 And so it would not get very far.

01:05:11.000 I disagree.

01:05:14.000 And when you look at the history of the Civil War in the United States, Nobody thought the war could happen, largely because they were like... 0.93

01:05:21.000 You mean all of these generals from each of these states that were all trained at West Point together and are friends with each other are gonna fight? 0.98

01:05:27.000 That's the stupidest thing I ever heard. 0.99

01:05:29.000 And then what happened? 1.00

01:05:30.000 Yep. And it was, um...

01:05:32.000 I can't remember which general it was, but the Virginia general.

01:05:36.000 Lee? Robert E. Lee?

01:05:37.000 Was he...?

01:05:38.000 He's Virginia.

01:05:39.000 Yeah, he was the Virginia guy, I believe.

01:05:41.000 Well, I believe...

01:05:42.000 It might have been him.

01:05:43.000 Or it might have been Stonewall... 0.69

01:05:46.000 Oh, Stonewall Jackson?

01:05:47.000 Might have been, but they basically wrote, I am now torn between standing with my friends and my country or my home.

01:05:56.000 And I have no choice but to go to my home.

01:05:58.000 So you've got a cop in California and he gets paid by the California government.

01:06:05.000 Sure, Trump can say, we're going to seize your resources.

01:06:08.000 California says, no, you're not.

01:06:09.000 And this cop is being told by the man standing in front of him.

01:06:12.000 I don't think people understand how this stuff happens.

01:06:15.000 Let's just entertain this concept.

01:06:17.000 Donald Trump's in DC.

01:06:19.000 You are in California.

01:06:20.000 You're a cop in San Francisco.

01:06:23.000 Trump announces on the TV, police must side with him.

01:06:27.000 He's seizing control.

01:06:29.000 Trump's not here.

01:06:31.000 Your boss says, nah, we're not listening to that.

01:06:33.000 We are not going to allow Trump or any of his people to come anywhere near this state.

01:06:37.000 We are a sovereign state.

01:06:38.000 We have a right to defend ourselves.

01:06:39.000 They have no constitutional authority here.

01:06:40.000 What is that cop going to do?

01:06:42.000 He's gonna say, look, when I watch police officers arrest innocent people, seize guns from innocent people, and they go, I'm just doing my job, and conservatives defend it, the idea that Donald Trump would decree and police would side with him is laughable to me.

01:06:56.000 I think that's right.

01:06:57.000 I think there's a lot of questions about whether the principle, and you never know until you know, like, what kicks it off.

01:07:04.000 But if there's a rebuttal to that, and I'm not saying it is, because I have no idea how this would play out, is that I think states matter less.

01:07:12.000 People move more.

01:07:13.000 People aren't landowners like they were back then.

01:07:15.000 People change jobs all the time.

01:07:18.000 And also, in the polling, what I noticed is that your state doesn't really friggin' matter that much, except for just how left or right you are.

01:07:26.000 Like, if I polled Wisconsin this cycle, I was seeing almost as high levels of concern about the border as I was in, like, Arizona and Nevada.

01:07:35.000 Really? So it doesn't matter that much, except for literally the sliding scale of Kamala Harris and Trump.

01:07:40.000 Problem is, All of those blue voters are in cities that need supply chains.

01:07:47.000 So let's imagine police in the big cities and surrounding suburbs, and a conflict breaks out.

01:07:54.000 Not a civil war, but there's a conflict.

01:07:55.000 Maybe Texas, you know, when they were securing their border against Joe Biden, maybe we see something like that.

01:08:01.000 Maybe we see California completely opens up.

01:08:04.000 They tear all the wall down.

01:08:05.000 Here's one.

01:08:07.000 The feds go in to arrest Phil Murphy for harboring a legal alien. 0.72

01:08:10.000 Indeed. And the police in New Jersey will not side with Trump.

01:08:17.000 New Jersey is now a swing state.

01:08:20.000 Won't happen.

01:08:21.000 Because in South Jersey maybe...

01:08:24.000 When the National Guard comes?

01:08:26.000 When... What would happen is the National Guard would show up and the police would likely say, you know, as a matter of law, the Insurrection Act, we don't intervene in this regard, in these matters.

01:08:37.000 They won't work with Trump.

01:08:41.000 Let's escalate this.

01:08:42.000 Let's do the scenario of...

01:08:44.000 That's an interesting one.

01:08:45.000 I'm not entirely sure how it would play out.

01:08:47.000 Trump going into a deep blue state next to New York.

01:08:49.000 Who would intervene on the behalf of Phil Murphy?

01:08:51.000 Because he did mention that he had an illegal immigrant in his house.

01:08:53.000 The example that I like to use is Colorado and Oklahoma.

01:08:57.000 Using abortion as a comparable pretext to war, like slavery was.

01:09:02.000 We're dealing with a question of personhood.

01:09:05.000 Democrats once again are on the side against personhood.

01:09:08.000 Republicans on the side of personhood.

01:09:10.000 Colorado has completely unfettered abortion. 0.88

01:09:12.000 Oklahoma has totally banned abortion.

01:09:14.000 You enter a scenario where you get an underground railroad, the Democrats call it, of women escaping Oklahoma to get abortions.

01:09:23.000 Oklahoma says, this is a crime.

01:09:26.000 I can't remember which state it was.

01:09:27.000 We went over this when it happened.

01:09:28.000 But the governor of a southern state, a woman fled the state to get an abortion. 0.96

01:09:32.000 And he said, that's a criminal conspiracy.

01:09:34.000 So, you fleeing a state with others and being aided to go do it is a criminal conspiracy.

01:09:38.000 So, let's say conflict breaks out at the border between Oklahoma and Colorado.

01:09:43.000 There's a man who is with a woman.

01:09:46.000 She's seven months pregnant. 0.88

01:09:47.000 The baby is viable.

01:09:49.000 She says, one night, you know what?

01:09:50.000 I've decided I can't be with this man.

01:09:52.000 It's a bad relationship.

01:09:53.000 He's abusive.

01:09:54.000 Emotionally abusive or something.

01:09:56.000 She gets up at 2 a.m., packs her bags, and she flees. 0.77

01:09:58.000 The guy wakes up a few hours later, and he looks around.

01:10:00.000 He's like, where's You know, where's my girlfriend with my baby?

01:10:03.000 Where's my wife? 1.00

01:10:04.000 He finds out, through a mutual friend, she's on her way to Colorado to abort your child at seven months.

01:10:10.000 This is at the point where he's already seen the ultrasound.

01:10:13.000 And he's freaking out.

01:10:14.000 One of the leading reasons given by women for abortion is bad relationships. 0.92

01:10:18.000 This is true.

01:10:19.000 So this is a potential scenario.

01:10:21.000 She gets to Colorado. 0.95

01:10:23.000 He calls his friends, crying, please help me, she's gonna kill my son.

01:10:26.000 They drive to Colorado.

01:10:27.000 Colorado police block them and say, you're not going anywhere near this woman.

01:10:31.000 We know what your intentions are.

01:10:32.000 Oklahoma's now at the border.

01:10:33.000 The woman is right there or she's rushing towards the border. 1.00

01:10:36.000 It's a crazy scenario, but how does this play out if a woman were to do this? 1.00

01:10:40.000 If this does come to a point where there is a conflict and Oklahoma says she is breaking the law, kidnapping this child, Colorado says, no, she's not.

01:10:51.000 It's an unborn fetus.

01:10:52.000 It's not even alive.

01:10:53.000 The police 100% would be on the side of the woman. 0.90

01:10:56.000 Oklahoma would 100% be on the side of the man.

01:10:59.000 The federal government could try to intervene, and then Colorado's gonna claim that Trump is trying to overrule the state's sovereign laws, violating the 9th and 10th Amendment.

01:11:07.000 I don't know how likely that is, I'm just saying.

01:11:10.000 If you understand a scenario where it comes down to a conflict between the federal government and the state, where they actively need to oppose each other, the state is gonna side with the state, and the federal government with the federal government.

01:11:21.000 The simple reason is that A guy may be a conservative, Trump supporter, MAGA cop, but when they say, you will defy Donald Trump and follow the orders of your department, he's going to look around at every house and say, it's 90% Democrat.

01:11:36.000 Either I flee the state with my family right now and I'm homeless and I begged Trump for help, or I just do as I'm told and do my job for my state.

01:11:44.000 Well, what I can say is you should probably.

01:11:47.000 Ask ChatGPT to make that into a movie script, because it would have been a better Civil War movie than the one that they put out.

01:11:52.000 I know!

01:11:53.000 But you never know the context.

01:11:57.000 What if it's exposure between the cops and the feds, like the FBI?

01:12:02.000 I really don't know.

01:12:04.000 There's probably people doing that right now.

01:12:07.000 There was that whole situation with the divorced father and the mother was trying to trans a kid.

01:12:12.000 I don't know how that played out.

01:12:15.000 A context of tension, a constitutional crisis, or something that sparks it off, and then it just comes down to the details, and I don't know.

01:12:23.000 I think that one of the mistakes we often make is that we compare now to the US Civil War, which was distinct.

01:12:31.000 There was a strong moral issue and a question of personhood between sovereign, independent states under a weak government.

01:12:38.000 People said the United States are.

01:12:39.000 It was not a singular government.

01:12:41.000 The federal government was very weak.

01:12:43.000 Today, we are dealing with something more akin to, like, the Bolsheviks or the Spanish Civil War, where you have ideological factions that are amassing in rural and urban centers.

01:12:52.000 Or even, like, the Chilean Civil War, would you call it that, with Salvador Allende, where they came in and they just, in one afternoon, flew bombers over the capital.

01:12:59.000 They went in, they said, hey, he killed himself, the new ruler's in charge now, they put in Pinochet, and, uh, Civil War over.

01:13:06.000 Happened in, like, Seven hours.

01:13:07.000 Well, that's called a revolution.

01:13:08.000 It was a revolution and I think we're in the midst of a global revolution.

01:13:11.000 It's technological It's banking and we're just they're trying they would love to see the u.s Fall into civil war and destroy itself because we're the biggest ball work against global totalitarian technocracy So I think that you're on to something there there there are elements of the left the left-wing People on the left that have the ideology that any populist or any right-leaning people can not be in positions of power.

01:13:36.000 You're seeing it in France, Italy, Le Pen, they figured out a way to put Le Pen in jail for a couple years.

01:13:43.000 There's a guy in Romania, I guess, that was a populist.

01:13:46.000 There's a lot of right-leaning populist type politicians that the left is just trying to Breaking the law and throwing them in jail.

01:13:55.000 But what will happen is when the population realizes that their democracy is a sham, they will side with the autocrats.

01:14:06.000 They will side with the people that are the authoritarians if they can have a reliable system.

01:14:14.000 Yeah, this ties into what you're saying about the fourth turning that after order decreases, people will just seek the strongman.

01:14:20.000 You didn't say strongman.

01:14:20.000 I'm saying that.

01:14:21.000 But seek order.

01:14:22.000 Yeah. In whatever form that may be at the moment, and if that's harsh government overreach.

01:14:28.000 I'll have to figure out a way to ask that question.

01:14:29.000 I'm actually really interested in what the results would be.

01:14:33.000 But it's like a vacuum of leadership that is filled by a new generation of leaders that have different value sets than the existing ones, and they reorganize society around a shared cultural vision.

01:14:46.000 That's what the fourth turning tells us we're going to see in the next five or ten years.

01:14:50.000 It'll be a major change that puts 9-11 basically to shame, because everybody actually liked George W. Bush.

01:14:59.000 That's a really big feat.

01:15:00.000 It's like 80% approval ratings or whatever.

01:15:03.000 And the whole thing with the Freedom Fries.

01:15:06.000 Society was reorganized with a shared cultural vision.

01:15:10.000 It didn't last, because none of the values, none of the institutions got changed.

01:15:15.000 That's theoretically what we're in for.

01:15:18.000 Cultural cohesion doesn't typically lead to civil war.

01:15:23.000 If every single person in this country was watching the same TV show, there'd be a little conflict.

01:15:29.000 Their worldviews would be similar.

01:15:31.000 If every single person was influenced by only a couple of news channels and the news channels kept complaining about government spending, Doge would be a celebration.

01:15:41.000 But you have bifurcated culture in this country, and there's two parent factions and then subsets within all of them.

01:15:47.000 So you've got libertarians somewhat aligned with the conservatives and post-liberals and whatever.

01:15:53.000 And then on the left, you've got the progressives, the socialists, the communists and the Democrats.

01:15:59.000 Overwhelmingly, these are two distinct spheres of influence.

01:16:02.000 Neither will back down.

01:16:04.000 I think if you do a fair assessment, what you'd find is the Democrat side is authoritarian cult-based.

01:16:10.000 Their worldview is, adhere to the authority or else.

01:16:14.000 This makes society function. 0.99

01:16:16.000 They're not wrong, they're just crazy, and their worldview is nonsense. 0.79

01:16:19.000 On the right, it's more meritocratic, decentralized, do-your-thing, with a faction that has a strongman. 0.94

01:16:28.000 And the reason why the right is only just now turning things around is, on the right, people have finally decided to wield power.

01:16:36.000 So, typically what you ended up seeing with Trump's early coalition was people like me and Carl Benjamin, who are classical liberals, who are like, no, no, no, we can't do those things, we must maintain order.

01:16:46.000 And then after getting beaten in the face over and over again by people willing to break the law and violate the Constitution, we went, wow, you can't actually exist in a society where people don't follow the law, and their law enforcement will not follow the law.

01:17:00.000 A lot of people bring up, how is it so easy to arrest Trump's lawyers, yet Adam Schiff and these FBI agents, these intel guys who lied, we can't get a single indictment of these people because they are willing to violate the Constitution and the right typically is not.

01:17:18.000 Maybe Trump right now will realize his time is short and he's looking at being a lame-duck president for two years of his term if the Democrats win in 2026.

01:17:28.000 And maybe he just says, like he's already been doing, let's go nuclear, issue indictments, arrest these people.

01:17:33.000 I'll tell you this.

01:17:34.000 Trump's got to do it right now.

01:17:36.000 Yeah, clock's ticking.

01:17:38.000 If Donald Trump waits a year to issue indictments, it will negatively impact him in the election.

01:17:43.000 If he does it right now, this year will not even be—no one will remember it.

01:17:49.000 There's going to be no—if Trump next month says, Criminal indictment for Adam Schiff, witness tampering, lying.

01:17:56.000 There was something that came out with Ratcliffe today that I'm blanking on, but a specific reference about him being a fact witness to the case and there being some potential implications there.

01:18:06.000 If you went after Liz Cheney for witness tampering or Anthony Fauci for lying to Congress, he has to do it again.

01:18:14.000 Now, because if he does it close to the midterms, there will be an endless campaign commercial of Trump retaliating as a fascist and arresting people to stop them from being influential or winning.

01:18:24.000 If he does it now, next year, people are going to go, oh, yeah, when was that?

01:18:29.000 You're right.

01:18:30.000 He came in with shock and awe, the days of thunder, whatever you want to call it.

01:18:35.000 And it was effective.

01:18:36.000 Now, I'll tell you, I don't think it changes approval rating that much.

01:18:39.000 Like it was just flat at like 52. It went up to 56 once.

01:18:42.000 But what it did do was completely take all the power away from the left.

01:18:46.000 Like they had no idea what to do.

01:18:47.000 Chuck Schumer was out there virtue signaling people tore his head off on Twitter.

01:18:50.000 And so he has so much power right now.

01:18:53.000 And I don't even mean to do anything autocratic, but he's sitting on a massive set of information that he knows about the stuff they uncovered in the government.

01:19:02.000 Socialize it.

01:19:02.000 Put it on TV.

01:19:03.000 Don't just do one press release.

01:19:05.000 Make it part of the zeitgeist.

01:19:08.000 And he could do that, you know, you don't have to throw garbage cases out there, like string them out.

01:19:14.000 But they have enough on somebody, and there are people I'm sure that have already flipped.

01:19:19.000 Get it out there.

01:19:20.000 Get the information out there.

01:19:21.000 Just control the narrative.

01:19:22.000 Doge Transparency Day.

01:19:24.000 Once a week they publish information on malfeasance.

01:19:28.000 I want them to make the Doge Prentice.

01:19:30.000 I want to have Doge featured on linear television.

01:19:35.000 They should negotiate with CBS to take over 60 minutes slot at a highly produced show where Trump fires 10,000 people out of the whatever it is this week.

01:19:47.000 But something like that because people are following this.

01:19:51.000 Doge was more popular than Trump was.

01:19:53.000 It was plus 11 net.

01:19:55.000 And we asked how angry are you with the level of waste fraud and abuse in the government that they've seen so far 70% Doge was popular than Trump.

01:20:03.000 That's interesting because I thought Musk was polling so far underwater.

01:20:06.000 So that's Musk crazy distinction.

01:20:09.000 Well, first off Other people do okay with the elections, but I'm pretty sure you can only trust my favorability numbers Everybody else has a sandbag Trump So they'll show like a Trump 44% favorability rating and then put a poll out then he has him polling at 50 It doesn't make sense, but we had Trump When Trump was 53, Doge was 55, Net 11, Trump was like Net 10, Elon was Net 9, but then Elon's dropping.

01:20:34.000 He went from like 52 down to I think 45 in the last poll.

01:20:38.000 So that's the difference between Teflon Don is that, you know, stuff doesn't just slide right off Elon, it's starting to take a toll.

01:20:46.000 I want to ask you this question.

01:20:49.000 Here we have Donald Trump's approval rating, which is the best average of his political career for the time.

01:20:55.000 It goes up and down a little bit, but it's currently in the spread on RealClearPolitics minus 2.2.

01:21:00.000 He had a honeymoon phase when he first got in.

01:21:02.000 Now his disapproval seems to be going up a little bit.

01:21:05.000 But it's fair to say that when you look at all the aggregate polling, Trump is polling his best.

01:21:10.000 That being said, how are we dealing with, in the same time period, Two polls, RMG and Marquette having inverted results.

01:21:20.000 RMG says Trump plus seven.

01:21:22.000 I'm sorry, RMG says plus seven and Marquette says minus eight.

01:21:27.000 My issue now is, I take a look at these polls in aggregate.

01:21:32.000 In Trump's first term, they were all relatively close.

01:21:35.000 They were all minus one, minus two, minus three, minus one.

01:21:39.000 And so they averaged at two and you're like, makes sense.

01:21:42.000 Trump's only minus two because Fox News has him at minus 2, but Gallup has him at minus 10, but RMG has him at plus 7. How could there be so wildly different polls for the same time periods?

01:21:55.000 Yeah, it's especially on the non-election stuff.

01:21:58.000 Well, the election stuff, especially 2020, was all over the place.

01:22:01.000 You'd have like net zero to all the way like Biden plus 16. That was real horse race polling and that's what everybody tunes their results to.

01:22:08.000 The truth about polling right now is that nobody's taking an actual random sample.

01:22:12.000 It's impossible.

01:22:13.000 There's literally no way to reach millions and millions of Americans anymore.

01:22:17.000 Even if you had all this money in the world to just spam everybody with SMS text messages, at the end of the day, what you're getting a sample of isn't the country.

01:22:25.000 It's a sample of people who actually respond to spammers.

01:22:28.000 So one of the reasons that we think we're more accurate and we do better, first, we're the only one polling approval on a nightly basis.

01:22:35.000 Nobody's doing it anymore.

01:22:36.000 And then the other is...

01:22:39.000 We pioneered the use of landline IVR.

01:22:42.000 We're one of the more prominent people that came out and did that in a time when most people had landlines.

01:22:48.000 But we poll so often that I have 400,000 people that like to answer our phone.

01:22:52.000 And half the electorate is over 50, so it lines up really well.

01:22:55.000 Almost everybody else has gone to online panels.

01:22:58.000 Or have built their own panels, the industry is sort of consolidating into Ipsos and YouGov.

01:23:04.000 So what Ipsos is, is just a panel of only 50,000, 60,000 people.

01:23:07.000 It's managed by people with pronouns in their LinkedIn bios.

01:23:10.000 It's like one set of people.

01:23:13.000 And they don't, they're not picking up those swing voters, they're not getting new voters entering, you know, they're trying to manage that.

01:23:18.000 And what they're doing is they're creating basically an artificial America.

01:23:22.000 And they and us and you gov is another one of the panels, they and us will try and tune the results to the election.

01:23:29.000 But I think I'm getting a politically sophisticated, older group of people that are informed and are less normie.

01:23:37.000 And because of that, not only did I have Trump approval higher than everybody else, I actually had for most of the time Biden approval higher than everybody else.

01:23:43.000 Nobody, nobody wants to, you know, talk about that.

01:23:46.000 Like Quinnipiac was out with 33 Biden approval, I had him at like 44. So Can I ask you a bigger picture question about polling?

01:23:55.000 So much of politics, media, and narratives are driven by these polls.

01:24:01.000 So, for example, Fox News, CNN oftentimes run with whatever polls are based on approval rating, how people are feeling with immigration and whatnot, and these really do drive narratives.

01:24:13.000 Do you think the influence of polls is a little bit too stark here with how close politicians are paying an eye to this, how much the media is paying an eye to this, given how fickle they are with how big of a spread they are?

01:24:25.000 You know, a lot of politicians and media people really look at polls like the gospel.

01:24:28.000 I'm not exaggerating.

01:24:31.000 Politicians will look at polls and change their behaviors based on a couple of points spread here.

01:24:36.000 So is this driving Are media conversations and politicians mindset too much?

01:24:42.000 And you can tell me if you think I'm misunderstanding this, but the politicians I know are always paying attention to polls.

01:24:48.000 Polls are always the justification behind media narratives and media stories.

01:24:51.000 And look, there's gigantic spreads here.

01:24:54.000 You might know better than me about how fickle these are.

01:24:56.000 I'm not a statistics guy, but am I off the path here?

01:24:59.000 In my experience, it always leans one way.

01:25:02.000 I'd love to know who those politicians are.

01:25:04.000 I can't get anybody.

01:25:05.000 I literally had to give our state polling away almost essentially free to sponsors this time because nobody on the right actually believes or pays for polling.

01:25:13.000 All the money on the right seems captive into this consultant class Ouroboros of feeding itself.

01:25:19.000 And so what I want is people to pay attention to these polls because it reflects public opinion.

01:25:24.000 E-verify.

01:25:25.000 Get it done.

01:25:26.000 Everybody loves it.

01:25:27.000 Photo IDs.

01:25:28.000 Everybody's like, oh, wow, look at that.

01:25:29.000 In Wisconsin, the IDs passed, but the Republican didn't win.

01:25:33.000 Yeah, it's because Democrats like photo IDs for voting.

01:25:36.000 It's very popular.

01:25:37.000 And so there's, I could give them a list of 20 things that are bipartisan wins that they should do tomorrow, and they don't pay attention.

01:25:42.000 So I guess you don't think we're paying too much attention to polls?

01:25:45.000 You think we should be doing more?

01:25:47.000 Well, no, I think the problem is, is that polls have turned into, everybody hates them, because they're an information warfare weapon.

01:25:54.000 I don't like election matchups. 0.99

01:25:55.000 I don't want to do that crap. 0.98

01:25:56.000 I want to get policy in place. 0.99

01:25:58.000 And they do.

01:26:00.000 I did a whole hour and a half show on all the ways a pollster can lie to you.

01:26:03.000 There are many.

01:26:05.000 And the biggest one is cherry picking.

01:26:07.000 Cherry picking is the biggest one. 0.96

01:26:09.000 Even if the pollster is not corrupt, the hill will take your results out of context.

01:26:15.000 They put a Harris plus 7 poll headline out in the middle of August.

01:26:20.000 When the point of the underlying poll was to prove that when primed with race and gender questions, people were more likely to pick Harris.

01:26:29.000 So they literally had a Harris plus one poll, then they said, oh, what about all this other stuff?

01:26:34.000 Then they did it again and got Harris plus seven.

01:26:37.000 He'll put that as a headline, Harris plus seven.

01:26:39.000 Here's what I love.

01:26:39.000 Here's my question for you.

01:26:41.000 Would you, uh, would you, uh, in your life, do you think it is right?

01:26:49.000 I want to phrase it, is it good for individuals to try and reduce their carbon footprint or their pollution to be good stewards of the earth?

01:27:02.000 Yeah, we should be good stewards.

01:27:04.000 I'm a Boy Scout, I like conservation.

01:27:06.000 I can't believe it, I got a 90% support rate for the Green New Deal.

01:27:09.000 Can you believe it?

01:27:10.000 Yeah, the way you asked the question.

01:27:12.000 Here's another question for you.

01:27:13.000 Do you believe that we should have racial segregation or special benefits for people based on race in universities?

01:27:20.000 The missing component here is a principled leader.

01:27:23.000 I don't know.

01:27:25.000 Do you believe that people should get special privileges and access to jobs based on their race?

01:27:33.000 Oh, hell no.

01:27:34.000 Okay, so he opposes the Green New Deal.

01:27:36.000 Yeah. Because people don't understand that The Green New Deal was nonsense. 0.84

01:27:42.000 It included DE&I hiring initiatives based on race, and the argument that minorities are affected by climate change more than white people.

01:27:50.000 So, you could actually ask that question, which is specific to one portion of the Green New Deal, and then claim it's support for the Green New Deal, or opposite, you choose.

01:28:01.000 No, we were talking about tariffs.

01:28:02.000 It's the same thing.

01:28:02.000 People have no idea of the details.

01:28:04.000 You can ask it any way you want, get any result you want.

01:28:07.000 And that's just one of the million ways they can lie.

01:28:09.000 They can do a push poll.

01:28:11.000 They can like, hey, Donald Trump was kicking kittens.

01:28:13.000 Do you approve or disapprove?

01:28:14.000 Then ask the election matchup.

01:28:16.000 Or they can even like only release partial parts of it.

01:28:19.000 They ask this big long question.

01:28:20.000 And then it's like, hey, do you approve or disapprove the Green New Deal?

01:28:23.000 You don't know how they prime them.

01:28:25.000 And so yeah, it can be completely corrupt.

01:28:28.000 So we put out – ultimately, it comes down to ethics.

01:28:32.000 You know what I mean?

01:28:32.000 Like I don't put out all of my data and give people access to the underlying information about the people that I poll.

01:28:38.000 But I put out the cross tabs.

01:28:40.000 I put out every question I poll, and I list every sponsor that sponsors everything and how I weighted it.

01:28:47.000 And you have to trust me.

01:28:48.000 And the problem is is that literally everything has been weaponized.

01:28:51.000 That's why I call myself the honest pollster.

01:28:52.000 I was trying to figure out why we weren't commoditized, and that's literally what it comes down to.

01:28:56.000 There are a few other honest people, and I'm not calling all the other ones liars or – but you don't know because it's the way it's being used.

01:29:05.000 And you Transparency or in an ivory tower or in this like artificial assertion that they're unbiased Like the first thing I posted on Twitter when I started like tweeting in in in August when I got so I got so mad at all the scummy tactics like they After Kamala Harris got anointed there were two weeks when nobody released a national poll There was like three national polls that came out and I was like, what is this?

01:29:31.000 so I came out and like what I said to the future roles that came after me when I first started is that People are biased, but polls shouldn't be, and then they shut up.

01:29:40.000 So I don't get attacked by trolls anymore because, yeah, people are biased.

01:29:44.000 So you're going to pretend your pollster isn't biased?

01:29:48.000 Right? So anyways, I don't know.

01:29:51.000 It's a mess.

01:29:53.000 I was talking to Michael Maus the other day, and I was saying that I no longer view myself as classical liberal, but more post-liberal, which is a reference to recognizing the limitations of liberalism.

01:30:06.000 And requiring some kind of strong defense of your moral tradition.

01:30:10.000 Michael was saying, well, but people usually associate post-liberalism with fascism.

01:30:14.000 And so I explained my position and he says, oh, so you're where I'm at, because he's an anarchist.

01:30:19.000 And the gist of the conversation ultimately is the majority of people are dishonest, unfortunately.

01:30:28.000 I mean, they're honest to certain degrees, but people will lie to get what they want.

01:30:34.000 And so when it comes to polls, Most of them, like you're pointing out, are not honorable.

01:30:39.000 We have no more honor in the society.

01:30:41.000 It is people saying, how can I get the result I'm looking for?

01:30:45.000 So in media, you get journalists who will ask leading questions, or who will take quotes out of context.

01:30:51.000 The fact-checkers will add things to a claim to make it false.

01:30:56.000 Did Ian eat ice cream on Saturday?

01:30:59.000 False! It was Sunday.

01:31:00.000 Then they can put a big false on it, and they can take down any post they want on Facebook.

01:31:04.000 Facebook got rid of it, but that's what they were doing.

01:31:06.000 And then you have pollsters that will ask questions or prime people in ways that they know will manipulate the results so they can make the claim, so their ideology wins.

01:31:15.000 One issue I have had with polls, we talk about on the show from time to time, is when polling will go out for 3,000 people, like what we're just eyeballing here, 3,100.

01:31:23.000 Yeah, here, Rasmussen, 1,500.

01:31:25.000 So 1,500 people.

01:31:26.000 But then a news company will make an article and it'll say, 43% of Americans believe, and it's like, bro, that's 1,500 people.

01:31:35.000 Tell him about statistics, Mark.

01:31:38.000 Tell them about the numbers.

01:31:41.000 So you don't need to have that much statistics to pull, but there's this central limit theorem and blah, blah, blah.

01:31:46.000 Basically, there's accuracy and there's precision.

01:31:49.000 And so precision is like I shoot the gun, the bullets all go to the same place, but the target was over there.

01:31:54.000 Accuracy is like I spray down there, all the bullets went on the target, but not in the center.

01:31:58.000 And that's one of the tactics they use. 0.85

01:32:00.000 A lot of people say, look at that morning consult pull size.

01:32:04.000 thousand results.

01:32:05.000 It's got a 1% margin of error.

01:32:06.000 It's like, yeah, but they're 11 points away from the target.

01:32:10.000 And so what we'd like to do, and there's diminishing returns.

01:32:13.000 I would rather do 10 polls of a thousand people than one poll of 10,000 people.

01:32:17.000 I learn a hell of a lot more.

01:32:18.000 And that's what we do.

01:32:19.000 We put out more polling than anybody else except morning consult this cycle.

01:32:23.000 And I went back and counted.

01:32:27.000 Of the 28 polls on RealClearPolitics starting August 1st that showed Trump winning a little red circle, we were 50% of them.

01:32:35.000 Wow. So let me ask to try and help Ian understand.

01:32:38.000 You guys were one of the most accurate on the like every election over the past like 10 years or whatever.

01:32:44.000 We've done a good job.

01:32:45.000 You've been very close to the actual results.

01:32:48.000 Yeah. Now how is it possible that you very accurately reflected the results of the election but if you only polled 1,500 people?

01:32:55.000 Right, Ian?

01:32:56.000 That makes no sense.

01:32:57.000 I pull a quarter million of people a year.

01:32:59.000 So like we ask all the time.

01:33:02.000 I put out 42 different state polls spread across 14 states.

01:33:05.000 So you get a really clear picture because I'm taking a sample every time.

01:33:09.000 So, it's like, hey, I took Pennsylvania, and I got a plus one, a plus three, a plus two, I'm pretty sure what the result's going to be, and I'm going to tune it to make sure that the results aren't all over the place.

01:33:19.000 But how is it that a poll of 1,500 people could be claimed to represent the country, or the general approval of a president?

01:33:29.000 Statistically, the 95% confidence interval, meaning 19 out of 20 times, if I run it again, Thank you.

01:33:41.000 it's a plus or minus 3%.

01:33:42.000 There's different ways to represent accuracy.

01:33:44.000 And that's just a statistical proof of the central limit theorem.

01:33:49.000 Simply put, in layman's terms, You do not need to ask every person in the country to have a general understanding of what the population is.

01:33:56.000 No, no, no.

01:33:56.000 Yeah, right.

01:33:56.000 Exactly. As the sample size increases, you get diminishing returns.

01:33:59.000 Right. And so I don't need a 1% margin of error.

01:34:02.000 If I get a 3% margin of error, and it's really going to be closer than that, and I'm going to poll a few more times, and that's what I'm going to put out, because I have a limited budget as well.

01:34:12.000 And also, on these policy issues, the way I perceive polling is like, here's my results.

01:34:18.000 Prove me wrong.

01:34:19.000 Ian has struggled for years to understand.

01:34:22.000 Just to explain, I guess a thousand random people participating in this is surprisingly representative of what it would be if you were to poll a hundred thousand people.

01:34:32.000 The accuracy might become marginally more accurate, but just a thousand people would still be surprisingly representative, more than I guess you would expect.

01:34:42.000 Yeah, but they're not random.

01:34:43.000 Well, there's no reason they have that much precision anyways, because there's so many other sources of potential error baked in.

01:34:48.000 Like I could be pulling – like my sample method – like techniques of getting to these people could have inherent biases built in.

01:34:55.000 I could be picking the wrong party weightings and could be completely off there.

01:35:00.000 So why would I do a poll and get like a 1% margin of error when I could have three points of baked in bias in my party weightings?

01:35:06.000 And that's what the others are doing.

01:35:09.000 Is that what you're saying?

01:35:10.000 There's all kinds of different tricks.

01:35:12.000 I'll tell you, like, 2018, we didn't do that great.

01:35:15.000 And I think there's reasons why.

01:35:16.000 But over time, one of the problems is that they'll create artificial measuring sticks in order to slander people.

01:35:22.000 So we were told that we were way far right in 2016, just because we showed Trump up a few times.

01:35:28.000 But we had Hillary Clinton winning the national popular vote. 1.00

01:35:31.000 We were within like a point or two.

01:35:32.000 So we did great.

01:35:33.000 In 2020, our final call was Biden plus one.

01:35:37.000 But three weeks before that, we had Biden plus 12. And the average of all of our polling across September-October was Biden plus six.

01:35:43.000 So we were actually two points to the left, and they call us a far-right pollster.

01:35:47.000 So they'll use underhanded tactics like that. 0.84

01:35:50.000 And on the 2018 miss, I'm very eager to see what happens, for instance, to ActBlue.

01:35:56.000 I think that we're going to find that...

01:35:59.000 Fraud? Yeah.

01:36:00.000 The accusations are coming out.

01:36:02.000 But Ian, explain what you meant then, if you say we don't understand.

01:36:05.000 Yeah, yeah.

01:36:05.000 So it sounds like as a pollster, you're very ethical and diligent in the way you poll.

01:36:10.000 So I think that, I agree, like a poll comes out.

01:36:13.000 Well, let me finish this real quick.

01:36:15.000 A poll comes out.

01:36:16.000 Here's what the poll said.

01:36:17.000 That's good.

01:36:17.000 You did your job.

01:36:18.000 Now the news media will pick it up and be like, okay, this poll says 47% of these 2000 people believe, and then they'll run the headline, 40% of Americans believe.

01:36:27.000 I find that to be unethical.

01:36:29.000 An unethical distribution of your data.

01:36:31.000 Do you agree?

01:36:32.000 People have unethically distributed our data for sure, but we're kind of in the polling ghetto right now.

01:36:38.000 The question is, when you put out, when Rasmussen puts out a approval for the president, is the implication this is a national This is a view of the national population.

01:36:47.000 Yeah, it is a sample of U.S. likely voters with a plus or minus three margin of error.

01:36:52.000 And if you don't personally think that that represents, then you can prove us wrong in your own poll or do a more expensive...

01:36:58.000 I think Ian doesn't like that everybody isn't being polled and it's being said that all the perc...

01:37:02.000 You can never poll America ever again.

01:37:06.000 Ian's point is that a poll of 1,500 people is not representative of this country no matter what.

01:37:12.000 And when the media says it is, they're lying.

01:37:14.000 And so the question for the pollsters is, can you poll 1,500 people and are your results representative of America?

01:37:22.000 Yes. Scientifically, statistically relevant.

01:37:24.000 Yes. Relevant.

01:37:26.000 But I don't think that it is a direct representation or a reflection of what We're good to go.

01:37:26.000 But I don't think that it is a direct representation or a reflection of what 330 million people think.

01:37:31.000 It's kind of semantics.

01:37:33.000 You know what I mean?

01:37:33.000 Basic common sense.

01:37:34.000 No, but that's – Look at the way these representatives in Congress are failing to represent 700,000 people a piece.

01:37:40.000 You might have to get a lesson from a pollster, but that's – I know that the math is terrible.

01:37:44.000 I just want to – I'm sorry to interrupt.

01:37:46.000 Ian, you are talking to one of the leading pollsters in the world who is explaining to you how the math and science works.

01:37:51.000 I don't understand what you're arguing.

01:37:52.000 Well, it's like if I come up with a result, 43% think the Civil War is happening in the next five years, right?

01:37:58.000 should probably say poll colon civil war america like us likely voters civil wars happening and then but it's on our site rasmussenreports.com so people know you know it's it's just semantics it is a statistical representation of what americans think well it's like it's not just amazing if i said you know not eighty percent of the people in this room think that but i only pulled me and and i guess let's see or let's say there were a hundred of us in here and i said sixty percent of the people in that room believe but i only pulled five people And

01:38:28.000 three of them thought it.

01:38:30.000 So and I told them what I'm going to do that would be unethical and a lie of me to say that and presumptuous.

01:38:35.000 So we're going to go to super chats because we're going in circles.

01:38:37.000 Yeah, but Ian, I don't think so.

01:38:39.000 We're spiraling.

01:38:40.000 That's for sure.

01:38:41.000 This gentleman here is going to take on statistics.

01:38:44.000 He has explained that you are incorrect and you're misunderstanding.

01:38:47.000 No, he did not.

01:38:47.000 As far as I know, you said you believed it was unethical for a news article to say 37% of Americans.

01:38:52.000 I misunderstood your question.

01:38:54.000 Like people, a poll is a poll.

01:38:56.000 And sometimes people load too much into what the results of a poll mean, but they are statistically relevant, it's an accepted form of journalism, understanding what people think, and they're not the be-all end-all.

01:39:09.000 In fact, I would look at other data if I really wanted to know what was happening in election beyond polling, right?

01:39:14.000 When a poll uses a representative sample and asks them their opinions and then published it, when the media shorthands Poll shows X percentage of Americans believe this.

01:39:27.000 That is how we mathematically, scientifically assess popular public opinion.

01:39:32.000 And as he's pointed out, the more people you ask, you get a diminishing return.

01:39:36.000 It doesn't change the results.

01:39:37.000 So there is a mathematical formula for the happy number of people you need to ask in a representative distribution to figure out the likely, within a margin of error of three points, opinion of this country.

01:39:51.000 So the media is not wrong when they say Paul shows.

01:39:54.000 Oh, but if a guy sees a poll of 1,500 people and they're like, oh shit, it says exactly what we want the world to think everyone thinks, let's make an article and say everyone thinks it, that's total manipulation. 0.86

01:40:03.000 But Ian, it would show the same thing if they polled 100,000 people is the point. 0.88

01:40:07.000 It's not even that.

01:40:07.000 It would show the same thing if you polled 1,500 or 15,000 people is the point.

01:40:11.000 He just told you how they can take the information and twist it around to say whatever they want.

01:40:17.000 Not whatever they want, but take the information and twist it to say things that are either not true or not the complete truth.

01:40:23.000 So it's not about the polls.

01:40:24.000 It's about the people that are taking the data and the information.

01:40:28.000 Yes, I agree.

01:40:29.000 It's not about the polls.

01:40:30.000 The polls are gone ethically.

01:40:31.000 This all started with a really great discussion that you had, I think, about the redefinition of politics and what the political spectrum is and what it's turned into.

01:40:41.000 That's an important part of the discussion that I think is happening.

01:40:46.000 People trust me because I talk to them and I show them what's going on and I try to answer their questions.

01:40:50.000 But at the core of it is just my sincere representation of integrity.

01:40:55.000 Like I'm trying to do a good job and I feel bad if I fail and also our business would probably not exist if I failed.

01:41:02.000 And so we need more of that.

01:41:04.000 And that's I don't know if you call that right or left politics anymore.

01:41:08.000 But my take on what I think we're seeing is that where the right has gotten to, and they weren't there eight years ago, is that they're very careful about being intellectually honest and trying to get to an honest answer about things.

01:41:20.000 Yes. And the left is fall in line or get out.

01:41:23.000 Yeah. I mean, you can see that with not just the stuff that goes on on Capitol Hill and in Congress, but even like in the Supreme Court.

01:41:30.000 Everyone knows how the left-leaning judges are going to rule. 1.00

01:41:34.000 You may be interested in hearing how their reasoning goes, but you know where they're going to come down on almost every issue.

01:41:42.000 Very, very rarely do the left-leaning justices surprise anyone.

01:41:49.000 You know, the right-leaning, or centrist, or conservative, or however you want to classify them, they're the ones that will actually surprise you.

01:42:00.000 And you can't really be sure.

01:42:02.000 You know, you could probably predict where Clarence Thomas is going to come down, and maybe predict where Alito comes down.

01:42:11.000 But even Alito will surprise you sometimes, whereas on the left-leaning, they all fall in line.

01:42:17.000 We're going to go to your chats, my friends.

01:42:19.000 So smash that like button, share the show with everyone.

01:42:22.000 You know, if you're watching, take that URL, post it wherever you can.

01:42:24.000 Sharing really does help.

01:42:25.000 And tell your friends.

01:42:27.000 If everybody watching right now live shared this show with their friends, we would be the biggest new show in the world.

01:42:32.000 That's actually true.

01:42:34.000 The reality is getting 70,000 people all at the same time to post on X is not possible.

01:42:39.000 Because if all 70,000 people watching right now posted with 71,000 posted on X right now, we would be the number one global trend.

01:42:46.000 So, uh, you know, if you want to support us, but we're gonna grab your chats.

01:42:49.000 We got the uncensored Colin show coming up in about 20 minutes.

01:42:52.000 You don't want to miss it at rumble.com slash Timcast IRL.

01:42:57.000 That's where we're going to be live with the show.

01:42:59.000 Don't miss it.

01:43:00.000 Let's see what you got.

01:43:02.000 3D Nerd Armory says, just found out my wife's pregnant with our first possibly twins.

01:43:08.000 Congratulations. I just want to say, you know, when Alice and I were expecting, we were hoping for twins.

01:43:14.000 Really? Well, you know.

01:43:15.000 I got twins.

01:43:16.000 Yeah, well, we want to have more kids and we're like, hey, you know, two for the price of one, right?

01:43:21.000 Now considering how much work we realize it is for one kid, it's like, let's, uh...

01:43:26.000 Let's take the time.

01:43:27.000 No, it's totally different.

01:43:28.000 Do twins your second time. 1.00

01:43:30.000 The first time it's like, oh, everything has to be perfect.

01:43:33.000 Oh, we have to take a picture of him with his little two-month-old sticker.

01:43:36.000 Like, oh, when the twins come, it's like, oh.

01:43:38.000 You're juggling them?

01:43:39.000 Yeah, it's a totally different thing.

01:43:41.000 And you're like, oh, this is easier parenting than the prior structure.

01:43:46.000 Was it because it was two at once or because it came after?

01:43:48.000 We just have twins in the family, apparently.

01:43:51.000 We had our first kid and then like three years later.

01:43:55.000 Oh, I know.

01:43:56.000 Why was it easier?

01:43:57.000 Was it because they came after?

01:43:58.000 Was your second round a round?

01:43:59.000 Or was it because they were two at once and you didn't have to?

01:44:01.000 No, you can't manage it all, man.

01:44:02.000 It's like, my wife breastfed and all that stuff.

01:44:05.000 It's like, stuff goes out the window, you know?

01:44:07.000 I don't understand how that's possible.

01:44:09.000 Like, I have to imagine.

01:44:11.000 The double football.

01:44:12.000 Double football.

01:44:14.000 Geez. Wow.

01:44:16.000 Also, I'm imagining just, you know, being pregnant with twins, the amount of food that the mother would have to eat.

01:44:23.000 My wife would probably be laying down. 1.00

01:44:25.000 95 to 135 pounds.

01:44:27.000 Wow. It was ridiculous looking, but I love her. 0.84

01:44:30.000 I can't believe I just said that on the air.

01:44:32.000 I've heard that this is a kind of maybe wrong, but that in times of when humans need to repopulate, they'll just start having more twins, that there's just more likelihood of it to happen.

01:44:41.000 Makes sense.

01:44:42.000 That's my headcanon now.

01:44:43.000 That's cool.

01:44:44.000 It's heartwarming.

01:44:45.000 Let's grab some more.

01:44:46.000 What do we got?

01:44:47.000 Amture says over one trillion is being invested in the USA because of Donald Trump and the tariffs.

01:44:52.000 Fact. I think it's actually more than that.

01:44:53.000 I've heard that it's up to something like $5 trillion.

01:44:56.000 Wow! Well, it's all good news, man.

01:44:59.000 Jacob Hawley says, Wisconsin GOP is kicking out anyone who worked with TPUSA and Scott Pressler.

01:45:04.000 Milwaukee GOP, which is MAGA, is being defunded by the state GOP, and they took Elon's money and used it to prop up new establishment county GOP wings.

01:45:13.000 State GOP gave phone numbers of early voters.

01:45:16.000 Yeah, that's par for the course.

01:45:18.000 I've been railing on this.

01:45:20.000 The number one enemy to American First Movement is Republicans, establishment Republicans, from so many MAGA candidates who are just like, well, you know, the state party rules everything.

01:45:30.000 There's one or two influencers there.

01:45:33.000 If you want to run, they're going to push you out.

01:45:35.000 They're going to run a squishy moderate candidate because they think that that's who wins.

01:45:39.000 And oh, by the way, it's all about the consulting deals.

01:45:41.000 And then RNC, RGA, NRCC, like nowhere to be found.

01:45:46.000 And then all the things you see on Twitter, all these big names are just a drop in the bucket compared to what needs to be built or changed in order to make MAGA the predominant ideology in Republican Party.

01:46:01.000 I'm surprised that there are still so many So many of the old guard Republicans in positions of authority and positions of influence.

01:46:13.000 I wasn't surprised after Trump lost in the 2020 election, however you want to call it, whether Trump lost or Biden stole it, I don't care, whatever you want to say.

01:46:23.000 But I wasn't surprised that there That was like a last grasp for power.

01:46:27.000 Now, after four years of seeing the way the Democrats behave and the clear victory that Trump had, it was because of Trump and the kind of MAGA movement, the America First kind of people.

01:46:41.000 It surprises me that there are still Republicans that aren't doing their best to get on board.

01:46:49.000 The New Clarence says, Happy birthday, Ian!

01:46:51.000 You are one of the three other people who I have found that share a birthday.

01:46:54.000 Here's to another trip around the sun.

01:46:55.000 By the way, look up skeleton graphene super caps.

01:46:58.000 I will.

01:46:59.000 Thank you.

01:46:59.000 It's your birthday?

01:47:00.000 It is, yeah.

01:47:00.000 Happy birthday!

01:47:01.000 A little second.

01:47:02.000 Thank you very much.

01:47:03.000 How old are you?

01:47:04.000 Forty-one.

01:47:05.000 Forty-six today.

01:47:06.000 Forty-six.

01:47:06.000 Doesn't he look so good for his age?

01:47:08.000 Your skin.

01:47:09.000 Thank you.

01:47:09.000 I think that's why everybody buys the coffee.

01:47:11.000 Rosesennial. Buy the coffee, my man.

01:47:14.000 Seventy-nine was harsh, baby.

01:47:16.000 And John Lennon died.

01:47:16.000 His secret is actually, not only does Ian drink, Ian's Graphene Dream Coffee.

01:47:21.000 He puts the grounds in his bread that he makes and does coffee enemas.

01:47:25.000 Oh, Tim, you're speaking my love language.

01:47:27.000 Hey, what was that?

01:47:28.000 What was that person they said, check out the graphene skeleton thing?

01:47:31.000 Who said that?

01:47:32.000 I'm sorry?

01:47:32.000 It was purely brotherly love.

01:47:35.000 Skeleton Graphene Super Caps.

01:47:36.000 Thank you very much, Super Chatter.

01:47:38.000 Who was that Super Chatter? 1.00

01:47:39.000 That is the new Clarence.

01:47:40.000 Thank you, the new Clarence.

01:47:41.000 Graphene Super Caps.

01:47:43.000 Thank you.

01:47:43.000 Let's see what we got going on over here.

01:47:46.000 Esme says, Tim, please read.

01:47:49.000 Please start reporting on the epic city.

01:47:51.000 Certain local politicians want to bring shari'a law to Texas.

01:47:54.000 They are trying to keep things quiet.

01:47:55.000 Abbott is investigating.

01:47:56.000 More eyes on this.

01:47:57.000 Yeah. Have you guys heard about Epic City in Texas?

01:47:59.000 Yeah, it's like 420 acres or something like that they've got.

01:48:02.000 They purchased now.

01:48:03.000 And what is the plan?

01:48:04.000 They want to do like a Muslim city or something? 0.66

01:48:06.000 Yeah, I don't know.

01:48:07.000 I don't know the details, but I do believe that it's essentially going to be a city Full of religious Muslims, and they will be attempting to be as autonomous as they can possibly be in Texas.

01:48:20.000 Is this any different than the Amish?

01:48:24.000 Yeah, like, I mean, as long as they're peaceful and within the bounds of the Constitution and keeping it kosher, or halal. 0.97

01:48:33.000 Interesting choice of words.

01:48:34.000 I mean, if they're doing things like Sharia law that are antithetical to our values, I think that's an issue. 0.69

01:48:39.000 Well, that's that's I think that that is why people are concerned.

01:48:43.000 I don't know what their actual plan is, but the people that are upset or that are worried about it, they're probably worried about, you know, you have to wear a burqa in the street or, you know, virtue police or whatever.

01:48:53.000 I think these no-go zones, too, that, you know, that we saw in Europe, I don't think people want to see happening here.

01:49:01.000 Amish places are never no-go zones, but I think there might be a fear of these turning into something like that.

01:49:06.000 Ray JLB says, The meme is, oh no, a child is crying.

01:49:12.000 Quick, burn the Constitution. 0.99

01:49:13.000 Burn child crying. 0.99

01:49:15.000 All right, what do we got going on? 0.78

01:49:17.000 Cain Abel says, Phil, do not give Massey a cop-out.

01:49:20.000 He voted against Trump.

01:49:21.000 He has major TDS.

01:49:22.000 He blamed Trump for January 6th and several other things.

01:49:25.000 You are the one with TDS.

01:49:28.000 Thomas Massey derangement?

01:49:30.000 Well, Trump derangement.

01:49:31.000 If you believe that Thomas Massey has TDS, I think that you're the one with the skewed Perspective.

01:49:39.000 Thomas Massey votes no on everything because Thomas Massey is a principled libertarian in the same vein as Dr. Ron Paul was.

01:49:48.000 Dr. Ron Paul's nickname was Dr. No because he voted no on everything as well.

01:49:52.000 You don't have to like him, but his motivations are not, oh, I hate Trump.

01:49:57.000 Grr, grr, grr, grr. 0.99

01:49:57.000 He's voting no on the MAGA agenda. 0.99

01:49:59.000 Why does he get the pass?

01:50:00.000 Because he's not a MAGA guy.

01:50:02.000 He's a libertarian.

01:50:04.000 And also it's a continuing resolution, which was the whole topic of debate was, let's not do another continuing resolution.

01:50:10.000 Then Matt Gaetz left and like, where's that conversation?

01:50:13.000 And Massey's still like, no, I'm not doing another continuing resolution.

01:50:15.000 No. Don't slide crap in. 0.99

01:50:17.000 Thomas Massey gets a pass, in my opinion, because he's always making the same principled libertarian principled votes. 0.99

01:50:25.000 Would he have killed the vote?

01:50:26.000 Pardon me?

01:50:26.000 Would he have killed the vote?

01:50:28.000 I don't think.

01:50:29.000 No, no, it would have passed without him.

01:50:30.000 No, but if it came down to it.

01:50:32.000 If he was the deciding vote?

01:50:34.000 I think he probably would have, yeah.

01:50:36.000 Okay, so it was all for self-aggrandizement then?

01:50:40.000 I'm not going to argue what he's thinking and I'm not going to argue with you about your personal opinion of Thomas Massie.

01:50:47.000 No, I respect people who have a consistent set of principles and they're trying to make decisions based on that.

01:50:54.000 I respect Donald Trump trying to primary him.

01:50:56.000 Well, not him, but encouraging somebody else to.

01:50:59.000 That's not gonna happen.

01:51:00.000 I was begging for the government to be shut down, just because I wanted to prove, I've been saying, like, people are begging for it.

01:51:05.000 They want the government shut down. 0.98

01:51:07.000 And, like, how stupid can you be to, like, like, Doge would run rampant through all different branches, and they never do it. 0.99

01:51:15.000 It's like, every time. 1.00

01:51:17.000 No. But yeah, it's a good super chat.

01:51:21.000 Thomas Massey, Thomas Massey's perspective is not because he has some kind of bone to pick with Donald Trump.

01:51:26.000 It's because he has What he believes are principled opinions, and he stands by them.

01:51:32.000 It's not about, oh, I don't like Donald Trump.

01:51:33.000 There are plenty of things where Thomas Massie has been like, no, I want to work with Donald Trump on this, I want to work with Donald Trump on that, and he's been complimentary.

01:51:40.000 These libertarians are so squishy.

01:51:42.000 Rand Paul also was like anti-deporting people or something earlier, too.

01:51:45.000 These libertarians.

01:51:45.000 I don't want to put the effort into understanding their principles.

01:51:48.000 That's on you.

01:51:50.000 Travis Booth says, it was cool seeing the TimCast truck on the track at Martinsville last weekend.

01:51:54.000 If you ever want to expand into different forms of motorsports, TimCast would look good on the hood of my drag car.

01:52:00.000 Shout out to Cody Dennison, professional race car and truck driver, and he drives the TimCast machine.

01:52:07.000 So I guess we're going to be in a video game.

01:52:08.000 We're just sick.

01:52:09.000 Oh, awesome.

01:52:10.000 Yeah, you're gonna be able to drive the Timcast car in a NASCAR game, I think it is, or something like that.

01:52:14.000 I don't know.

01:52:15.000 I'm definitely getting it.

01:52:16.000 I love racing games.

01:52:17.000 Awesome. Super cool.

01:52:18.000 We should get one of those wheel, like the whole setup with pedals and like...

01:52:21.000 Yeah, we can set it up in there and then we can have Cody come and we'll film him and be like, you better win.

01:52:25.000 That'd be sick, actually.

01:52:27.000 Have him drive his own car.

01:52:30.000 Let's grab some more.

01:52:32.000 Rootless Redneck says, military officers are college grads who largely side with Military Inc.

01:52:36.000 The junior enlisted aren't going to disobey their officers for better or for or worse.

01:52:41.000 Yep. Yeah, that's right.

01:52:45.000 I was a military officer.

01:52:46.000 Oh, 106.

01:52:47.000 And everybody's like, I just want to go over there and kill some I mean, it was literally like, you know, the Team America meme came out and everybody was saying they're good.

01:52:56.000 Like it was.

01:52:57.000 Yep. That's what the military was.

01:52:59.000 The officers were very gung ho.

01:53:03.000 And I think what the problem is...

01:53:05.000 I am not a fan of that.

01:53:07.000 I hate it when people infantilize the troops though.

01:53:11.000 Infantry, literally infantilization, that's what that's all about.

01:53:14.000 You have like a 40 year old NCO and he's supposed to be taking orders from some like 23 year old college grad?

01:53:20.000 Yeah. That is the stupidest thing I've ever heard. 1.00

01:53:25.000 There's also a senior enlisted guy that shadows the young officer. 1.00

01:53:32.000 I've had people explain to me that, like, these young guys out of college who are commissioned know not to disrespect the NCOs. 1.00

01:53:41.000 But it is stupid. 1.00

01:53:42.000 That's a ridiculous, ridiculous system. 1.00

01:53:45.000 I was on a nuclear sub. 0.99

01:53:47.000 There are very big reasons why you need conformity and authority and following orders.

01:53:54.000 And so besides the leadership aspect, which you can grow into as an officer, and some of them are very good, And better than others.

01:54:01.000 There's an aspect of that authority has to come from somewhere.

01:54:04.000 And it needs to be like, sacrosanct.

01:54:06.000 Now, in an operational setting, but at the same time, like they can bust you down.

01:54:11.000 And on the submarine, there were very few lines between the officers and the enlistees.

01:54:15.000 Can NCOs just go to school and get trained to become a commissioned officer?

01:54:21.000 Yeah, absolutely.

01:54:22.000 Right. That I can respect.

01:54:24.000 But it does seem silly to me that through college training, You're gonna outrank somebody who's got two decades of service behind them.

01:54:33.000 I find there to be issues with that.

01:54:36.000 The idea is you're getting also ostensibly indoctrinated into your responsibilities of leadership that include ethics and integrity.

01:54:47.000 And so it's this aspect of...

01:54:49.000 And communism.

01:54:52.000 Communists, no.

01:54:53.000 These days.

01:54:54.000 Oh, maybe, yeah.

01:54:55.000 I don't know.

01:54:55.000 There were civilian professors at the academy.

01:54:58.000 I'm sure there are more now.

01:55:00.000 Hegseth is fixing it all, so I'm pretty happy with how it's going.

01:55:03.000 I just thought, you know, the way it used to be was a commissioned officer was a commissioned officer.

01:55:09.000 Now it's a college grad.

01:55:11.000 Yeah. Are there circumstances where there's just like some guy who's a massive expert in his field?

01:55:17.000 Let's say there's a guy who Was a police officer he enlisted he did combat he came back joined a private military company Worked with that company on on private missions ended up becoming one of the top PMC's running security operations for the government Could they go to him?

01:55:34.000 He's a high school dropout and say, we're going to commission you to be an officer in the armed forces.

01:55:39.000 They might have the capability.

01:55:40.000 That's just not the way the military rolls.

01:55:42.000 It's so different than corporate America, which I worked in.

01:55:45.000 Corporate America like worships specialization now and they really want to hire like experts.

01:55:50.000 But in the military, it's like, no, you're a generalist and a leader.

01:55:54.000 It's Yeah, yeah.

01:56:13.000 Unagreeable generalist leaders are what I think corporate America means more of, and that's what the idea of – Being an officer cultivates a very strong mindset of making decisive decisions based on limited information, being able to balance right versus wrong.

01:56:32.000 Isn't there a risk of demoralization when the guy who comes in who's never been at this base before starts doing things that the enlisted know is going to screw things up?

01:56:42.000 I hear that a lot.

01:56:45.000 Training leaders, you should be smart enough not to come in and just screw things up.

01:56:50.000 And in practice, they generally do not.

01:56:53.000 And it works really well.

01:56:55.000 They haven't had a nuclear reactor accident, like on a submarine.

01:56:59.000 And, you know, obviously, they Rickover put a lot of thought in it, and they do it in other places in the military, too.

01:57:05.000 But if there's something that you have to be an expert on, they create a body of knowledge to feed you.

01:57:09.000 There are procedures.

01:57:10.000 This is how we train them.

01:57:12.000 This is what they get trained on.

01:57:13.000 And so if I go from one sub to another, and it's different, I know that, well, I don't know this reactor.

01:57:19.000 I've got to go read the procedure and stuff like that.

01:57:21.000 And in corporate America, it's just a free-for-all.

01:57:25.000 And yeah, the college people, that is a problem.

01:57:29.000 Even back in 05, You know, we weren't allowed to talk politics in the wardroom.

01:57:34.000 Like, it was just, we weren't allowed to.

01:57:36.000 But this one guy came in, he was from OCS, which means you just came out of college, you went to, like, indoctrination for 12 weeks, and then, congratulations, you're an officer.

01:57:46.000 And in the middle of one of the meals, he's like, oh yeah, I worked on the Carrie campaign.

01:57:52.000 Everyone is like, what?

01:57:54.000 It was the funniest day.

01:57:56.000 And then he got- I thought you weren't allowed to say you were gay.

01:57:59.000 That was the equivalent in 2004.

01:58:01.000 One awesome thing you mentioned is how like officers are basically growing people to become generalists, like epic generalists.

01:58:08.000 And they actually call the role the gen general, because that is the point is that you are a generalist, you know?

01:58:15.000 Yeah. Use your people.

01:58:17.000 Use your people.

01:58:18.000 Then that's what officers are trained to do.

01:58:20.000 Yeah. And just to tap it off, you tell better stories because you're an officer.

01:58:24.000 Are you still considered an officer even though you're retired?

01:58:26.000 No, no, no.

01:58:26.000 Okay. But in Vietnam, like a young lieutenant comes in, you know, they're going to step back and let the NCO lead if they're in combat.

01:58:33.000 I know these are kind of like rudimentary questions, just general service stuff, but could you go back and resume your position?

01:58:40.000 I could have up until I think the age of 31. I loved being on submarines.

01:58:44.000 I would have been a career. 1.00

01:58:46.000 They do a lot of really, really, really stupid things. 1.00

01:58:48.000 You loved being on a submarine? 1.00

01:58:50.000 Really? Oh, it was excellent.

01:58:51.000 It was amazing. 0.79

01:58:52.000 approach an attack, like I got to shoot two nuclear missiles. 0.84

01:58:55.000 I got to literally hug them. 0.96

01:58:57.000 Wow. On a boomer then?

01:58:58.000 Yeah. You know, a lot for somebody that's on a boomer to say they love it, they love it.

01:59:04.000 But man, I'll tell you, you know, about a third of officers at the time were coming out of the academy.

01:59:10.000 And what there began a very, like revolving door to corporate America, like a, an industry of junior military officer recruiters feeding people into blue chips.

01:59:20.000 And In 2004, I think it was, they started this individual augmentation program because they didn't have enough officers over in Iraq.

01:59:28.000 So Bush basically made it where if you're a Navy officer, your next shore duty, which is where you're supposed to recharge your batteries, is going to be bomb disposal in Afghanistan or Iraq, in Baghdad.

01:59:42.000 So my decisions were like, put my wife through my Middle East deployment or get out of the Navy.

01:59:49.000 And guess who got out of the Navy?

01:59:50.000 Almost all the Naval Academy people who went right into blue chip companies.

01:59:54.000 And yeah, it's wild.

01:59:55.000 Do you ever hear really weird noises that freaked you out?

02:00:00.000 No. Aww.

02:00:01.000 No, no.

02:00:02.000 Just say yes anyway.

02:00:03.000 No, it's just like the whales.

02:00:04.000 They make, you know...

02:00:04.000 Oh, really?

02:00:05.000 You can hear them?

02:00:05.000 Yeah, yeah.

02:00:06.000 Oh, cool. 0.64

02:00:06.000 Active sonar sounds ridiculous. 0.64

02:00:08.000 The closest I've ever come to being in a submarine is there was a docked submarine where they let people walk in and out of one.

02:00:14.000 Yeah, I think I did that too.

02:00:16.000 It was fun.

02:00:16.000 It was very cramped.

02:00:17.000 Oh, ours was not cramped.

02:00:19.000 It was big.

02:00:20.000 What is this?

02:00:21.000 25 feet?

02:00:23.000 This room is indeed 25 by...

02:00:27.000 25 by like 23, I think?

02:00:29.000 We had a 40-foot beam.

02:00:33.000 Whoa! That's huge!

02:00:36.000 Yeah, four floors, 560 feet, 18,000 tons.

02:00:39.000 So you had like a gym in there.

02:00:41.000 You're playing basketball.

02:00:42.000 What kind of submarine is it?

02:00:44.000 Is it a Los Angeles class?

02:00:45.000 No, I was on an Ohio class, the Nebraska.

02:00:49.000 My next duty would have been on an L.A. class, and those are way cooler.

02:00:54.000 I didn't get to see any foreign wars.

02:00:55.000 Those are way cooler.

02:00:56.000 Are those the biggest ones, the L.A. class?

02:00:57.000 No, they're the warfighters.

02:00:59.000 So we trained, but our entire mission was to hide.

02:01:05.000 Wait for the red phone call.

02:01:07.000 To launch the nukes?

02:01:09.000 Crazy. Semper Ives says the expert type of commissioned officer is called a chief warrant officer, but they get their commission a little differently.

02:01:17.000 How do they get those?

02:01:19.000 There's so few of them.

02:01:19.000 I don't think I've ever seen a warrant officer in my entire life.

02:01:23.000 In all five years I was in the military.

02:01:25.000 Only time I ever saw any warrant officers is if they were helicopter pilots in the Marine Corps.

02:01:29.000 Okay, yeah, makes sense.

02:01:30.000 How do they get their commissions?

02:01:31.000 Do you know?

02:01:31.000 I don't know.

02:01:32.000 Interesting. You have to be some kind of officer to fly on anything.

02:01:36.000 If you're a pilot, you're some kind of officer.

02:01:38.000 You can be a warrant officer and be a pilot as well.

02:01:42.000 Really? How fun.

02:01:43.000 My friends, smash the like button, share the show with everyone you know.

02:01:46.000 We're going to that members-only call-in show over at rumble.com slash TimCastIRL.

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02:01:57.000 Sign up now, because we're gonna be taking your calls from the TimCast Discord.

02:02:01.000 It'll be fun.

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02:02:04.000 Mark, do you want to shout anything out?

02:02:06.000 Yeah, if you can tell from tonight, there's no filter.

02:02:09.000 I tell you exactly everything I think, and that's important, I think, for a pollster, because there's so much dishonesty in the industry and the way that polls are used in the industry.

02:02:18.000 So if you like that, follow us at Rasmussen underscore poll.

02:02:22.000 I'm at Honest Pollster on Twitter.

02:02:24.000 We have a YouTube channel, and we stream Monday, Wednesday, Friday, 9 o'clock Eastern.

02:02:28.000 Mark, it's been really fun talking to you.

02:02:31.000 I think your pollster stuff, I mean, it was an interesting conversation.

02:02:34.000 You do great work over at Rasmussen.

02:02:36.000 Did I say it right?

02:02:37.000 Rasmussen. Rasmussen.

02:02:39.000 I'm a lot Eliyahu.

02:02:40.000 You could find me on Instagram and Twitter under that handle.

02:02:43.000 I do White House reporting here at Timcast.

02:02:46.000 Ian? Yes.

02:02:47.000 Got a super chat from Stephen Schoenhoff.

02:02:50.000 Thank you.

02:02:50.000 General came from the title.

02:02:51.000 Captain General, Ian.

02:02:53.000 Way too much to fit into a super chat.

02:02:54.000 Got you.

02:02:54.000 Yeah, I don't know.

02:02:55.000 I'm not saying that they generally were like, Okay, because he's doing a lot of general labor, we'll call him the general, but I just noticed that correlation.

02:03:02.000 Thank you for the Super Chat.

02:03:04.000 I'm Ian Crossland.

02:03:05.000 Happy to be here, Phil.

02:03:06.000 I love you, man.

02:03:07.000 I love you, too.

02:03:07.000 I like when you smile when I talk something.

02:03:09.000 You kill me, man. 0.99

02:03:10.000 Brother. I enjoy hanging out with you. 1.00

02:03:13.000 Phil the world.

02:03:13.000 I am philtheremains on Twix.

02:03:15.000 I'm philtheremainsofficial on Instagram.

02:03:16.000 The band is All That Remains.

02:03:17.000 Our new record dropped on January 31st.

02:03:19.000 It's called Anti-Fragile.

02:03:20.000 You can stream it on the internet.

02:03:22.000 You know the places.

02:03:22.000 Don't forget, the left lane is for crime.

02:03:24.000 Rumble.com slash Timcast IRL for the uncensored call-in show in about 30 seconds.

Timcast IRL - Tim Pool - April 03, 2025

Trump Signs GLOBAL Tariffs, Trade War Goes NUCLEAR As Market TANKS w-Mark Mitchell | Timcast IRL

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