TRIGGERnometry - Are We Headed for Civil War？ - David Betz

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00:00:30.000 There is a gigantic ball of political energy that is building up.

00:00:38.480 The spark is just intrinsically unpredictable.

00:00:42.680 If we had to list factors in order, multiculturalism would be at the top, and if we were to put some kind of ranking on them, it's like 90%. 0.98

00:00:52.140 People who either express the view or nod at the view that we want our country back, and the people who want you to shut the f*** up.

00:01:01.860 So there is this sense on the part of the formerly dominant majority that they are losing this status, which impels them, as fear usually does, to act out.

00:01:13.900 David, Beth, welcome to Trigonometry.

00:01:17.620 Thank you.

00:01:17.920 You have been on a number of our favorite podcasts recently, talking about the risks of civil war, unrest in Western societies, particularly in Europe.

00:01:27.220 In a very persuasive way, there are many people who shout these slogans online without really having anything to say or back it up.

00:01:32.900 But you're someone who researches this.

00:01:35.140 So before we get into that, just tell everybody a little bit about who you are and what your career is about, so that we can talk about this issue.

00:01:42.320 Okay. My name's David Betts.

00:01:45.140 I'm a professor in the War Studies Department at King's College London, which is the biggest and best War Studies Department in the world.

00:01:55.320 I've been there for about 25 years now.

00:01:59.460 My area of specialism is fundamentally contemporary strategy, contemporary military affairs.

00:02:05.300 I've written on a wide range of things, but probably most pertinent to the discussion we're about to have.

00:02:14.020 I've been particularly interested over many years in the topic of insurgency and counterinsurgency,

00:02:19.640 which is essentially the study of how countries are torn apart from the inside and sometimes put back together.

00:02:27.780 For the most part, that research has concerned internal wars in foreign countries, in hot, dusty places abroad, and not so much at home.

00:02:39.260 But it began to occur to me, actually, going back as far as a decade ago, particularly heightening in the post-Brexit vote, parliamentary shenanigans.

00:02:51.660 To subvert that vote, it particularly began to dawn on me that the conditions that we generally understood to be contributory to the emergence and the persistence of insurgency in other countries,

00:03:06.620 of internal conflict in other countries, was more and more apparent in our own countries.

00:03:12.680 In that case, particularly the quality of a country that is particularly pertinent is the perception of legitimacy,

00:03:22.800 which is a huge issue in the study of insurgency and counterinsurgency.

00:03:27.800 And my feeling was that British governments, amongst other Western governments, were essentially doing things in a rather textbook manner

00:03:35.600 that seemed designed to diminish their own perception of political legitimacy and that that was a dangerous thing for our societies.

00:03:46.020 So I wrote, I continued to research and to write on this and did a couple of papers, now many years back,

00:03:58.720 but one of which was picked up by your friend and colleague, Louise from the Maiden Mother Matriarch podcast.

00:04:06.220 Louise Perry.

00:04:06.740 Louise Perry, who picked up a paper that I probably wrote in 2022, published in 23, with the title Civil War Comes to the West.

00:04:17.320 And so she contacted me out of the blue and said, for reasons of her own, she'd been brooding on this subject

00:04:26.200 and looked online if anybody had said anything about it, and lo and behold, she found me.

00:04:32.940 That led to a discussion with her, which then put that paper and the things that I'd been writing

00:04:43.120 and talking about in an academic sphere, which is not terribly noticeable, to be perfectly honest,

00:04:50.880 into, much more into the mainstream of the public sphere.

00:04:55.200 And one thing I would just say as an observer, we've obviously had, you know, hundreds of people sitting in your chair at this point.

00:05:01.120 And most people that come on our show, they usually have a thing they want to say and they're desperate to say.

00:05:06.900 You almost seem quite reluctant to be talking about this in this public way.

00:05:10.520 Yeah, I'm reluctant to be talking about it for reasons that are probably pretty obvious.

00:05:15.780 It's rather uncomfortable.

00:05:16.960 I'm not a public figure for one thing.

00:05:21.220 So it's a bit unusual for me to be sitting at a table with a camera pointed at me in a bright light.

00:05:27.240 It feels a little bit, you know, feels a bit...

00:05:30.300 Anyway, it's new for me and slightly awkward at that.

00:05:34.340 The subject matter, moreover, is extremely unpleasant.

00:05:39.640 And the climate, the political and social climate is such that it can be rather painful to talk about these things.

00:05:47.980 You make enemies whom you don't want to make.

00:05:50.360 You alienate people, friends, family, who you would wish to alienate.

00:05:57.540 So, you know, I'm not here to...

00:06:01.000 You're correct.

00:06:02.360 I'm not jumping at the bit to talk about this.

00:06:08.080 I feel compelled to do so by my own conscience, I guess, and my own calculation of the state that we're in and people are interested.

00:06:24.760 But frankly, no, I'm not trying to sell anything.

00:06:27.760 And it is...

00:06:28.900 I am a bit of the proverbial fish out of water, I'll admit.

00:06:32.260 It's a detour, but I think it's worth exploring.

00:06:35.020 I'm curious because what is the nature of the criticism from friends? 0.89

00:06:41.380 I understand online people say stupid things all the time about everyone who has any opinion.

00:06:45.760 But in terms of your own personal life, friends, colleagues, etc., what's the nature of their concern about what you're doing? 0.77

00:06:52.220 I think people feel that when you speak about things that you actualize it.

00:06:56.360 I see.

00:06:56.900 People often do that.

00:06:57.700 They confuse predicting that something will happen if we continue down the current path with, like, wanting it to happen or making it happen.

00:07:04.180 Yes, that's the common thing.

00:07:06.820 I mean, one does try to explain, let's say, for example, you know, if I was an astronomer and I'm looking through my telescope and I see a meteor headed towards the planet,

00:07:18.220 my understanding of celestial mechanics and impact energy of heavy, you know, rapidly moving objects as the sweet meteor of death is headed towards our planet, I'm not calling for that to occur.

00:07:32.160 I'm simply saying, you know, my understanding on the basis of reality and on the basis of my observation, this is our situation.

00:07:43.760 But fundamentally, I think the basic problem is that people have an actualization issue.

00:07:50.060 People think that words can create situations and there is a fear that perhaps it might inflame.

00:08:01.620 No, I understand that.

00:08:02.580 I don't think they're right.

00:08:03.820 But I do understand the difference between a meteor or a comet coming at the earth and human behavior, which can be modified by what they're hearing in the media and so on.

00:08:13.040 So I understand, even though I don't agree.

00:08:14.420 But anyway, coming back to you, you kept using the word insurgency.

00:08:18.600 And I wanted to ask you to delve into that, because when I think of insurgency, I think of a guy who straps a bomb to himself, driving into a market in Kabul, shouting Allah Akbar.

00:08:31.080 I don't think of modern Britain.

00:08:33.360 So what are you what are the parallels that you're seeing?

00:08:36.640 Right.

00:08:37.160 So the first thing to understand is that imagine insurgency is like an iceberg, OK?

00:08:43.940 What everybody knows about an iceberg is the top, the part that sticks above the water is the smallest part, right?

00:08:51.820 Most of the energy, the bulk of the iceberg is under the water.

00:08:55.960 The bit that you just pointed to, the guy screaming Allah Akbar, strapping a bomb to himself and blowing himself up in a market or what have you, that's the shiny bit poking up over the surface.

00:09:11.720 The important bit is underneath there, right?

00:09:15.360 So the first thing is to understand that an insurgency is a social movement, fundamentally.

00:09:23.100 And social movements are normal in every society, right?

00:09:27.160 If you want to move ideas around, if you want anything to happen in your society, you have to have social movements.

00:09:36.540 And a normal society, you know, welcomes these things, right?

00:09:40.780 Some social movements are more contentious than others, right?

00:09:44.860 The civil rights movement, for example, is a highly contentious social movement.

00:09:50.400 Environmentalism at various stages, including now, might be seen as a very contentious social movement.

00:09:58.180 Anti-capitalism, likewise.

00:10:02.500 Insurgency differs from normal social movements only in the extent that it is a social movement which, in some respects, goes beyond the law.

00:10:15.560 Nelson Mandela had a famous trial early 1960s.

00:10:18.920 He's charged by the apartheid regime.

00:10:24.140 Treason, I think, was what he was charged with.

00:10:26.500 It doesn't matter particularly.

00:10:27.680 But he explained why, you know, what his line of thought was about forming the armed wing of the ANC and so on.

00:10:39.000 And he said that essentially, at some point, given some sorts of grievances, you have to decide whether you surrender to the situation, to the status quo, because it can't be changed within the rules of the game.

00:10:55.500 Or you go beyond the law.

00:10:59.260 Now, how you go beyond the law, there's an immense variation in how you might do that.

00:11:04.540 You might do sabotage, i.e. property destruction.

00:11:09.320 You might use physical violence, rioting are the types.

00:11:13.360 Or if you do, you might conduct physical attacks.

00:11:16.980 But even then, you might make calculations about whom you attack.

00:11:21.500 Do you attack uniformed figures or are you less precise?

00:11:25.480 But essentially, with insurgency, what I'm trying to get at here is that you have a giant ball of energy that is the important bit, but is under the surface.

00:11:39.000 And the bit at the top is the less important.

00:11:43.700 This is the most obvious in a sense, but it is the less important.

00:11:49.280 Now, to answer your question, you are quite right.

00:11:52.040 We don't have Britain-first guerrillas blowing themselves up in Westminster at this point in time or doing other sorts of things like that.

00:12:08.200 But what you do have is you have an increasing sense of alienation from normal politics.

00:12:16.600 You have more and more people expressing the view that politics is broken, that politics doesn't work.

00:12:26.300 And if you understand what politics is for, what politics is, politics is fundamentally a way of solving collective action problems.

00:12:35.980 And if politics doesn't work to solve collective action problems, then it has to change, right?

00:12:45.720 Just for people who don't know, what is a collective action problem?

00:12:48.040 Any collective action problem is a problem which can't be solved through individual effort, right?

00:12:54.280 So our political system exists to aggregate people's views on a range of social matters through a particular mechanism, right?

00:13:09.640 Through the political system, in this case through elections, the idea being that we have elections.

00:13:15.880 These people called elected politicians who go into parliament and discuss the issues of the day and come to decisions or answers about problems which exist in that society.

00:13:28.920 Now, you or I as individuals may differ with the decisions taken, but in a normally functioning political system, i.e. one which is perceived as legitimate, we accept that the rules of the game have been applied fairly, right?

00:13:48.060 So while we may not agree with the outcome of a particular election and the set of policies which follow from that, we accept that at the end of the day, we're all British citizens.

00:13:59.160 We all are, essentially, our pre-political loyalty is to Britain as a nation and there is a perception that the system itself is legitimate, whether or not we individually agree with those decisions.

00:14:14.740 In other words, my wife and I had a discussion about where to go for the weekend.

00:14:19.980 She ended up winning that discussion.

00:14:22.080 I accept it because I care more about the family than I care about the family.

00:14:25.440 So you have a very little political system in your family that aggregates decisions.

00:14:31.240 But at the end of that, I don't spend the rest of my time going, well, you know, we should never have made this decision.

00:14:36.220 This is a wrong decision.

00:14:37.260 We accept that decisions get made because we are a family, effectively, right?

00:14:41.660 So, yes.

00:14:42.520 Actually, that's not a bad analogy.

00:14:44.520 I mean, it's quite small, but it's not a bad analogy.

00:14:47.000 If you think of a family as a social unit which has a natural affinity in which the people have, the members have a natural affinity for each other and a loyalty to the family which precedes their feeling.

00:15:07.640 Well, their self-interest.

00:15:08.480 And self-interest, too.

00:15:09.200 So when you have a system like ours in which the data is perfectly clear that trust in government is almost in single figures now, trust in all institutions has been in decline in the West for a generation.

00:15:28.520 Slightly more than a generation, slightly more than a generation, in fact, with politics being very much in the lead in terms of rather dismal race to the bottom.

00:15:36.920 So we have a system which is increasingly perceived as illegitimate, that isn't a functional way of solving collective action problems.

00:15:47.600 And moreover, we have countries now where, on account of things like the triumph of identity politics primarily, people don't share the sense of pre-political loyalty, which they once did.

00:16:06.880 Which is, I would suggest, the major contributory factor to the perception of illegitimacy and the perception that politics is no longer functioning as it ought to.

00:16:25.980 Moreover, the problems are now so severe that the political system is unable to cure itself.

00:16:35.680 So if you want to change, in essence, we are now getting very close, both in Britain and many other countries, to a situation where people in fairly large numbers are beginning to feel that the problems are intolerable and urgent and that they cannot be solved within the existing rules of the game.

00:17:04.080 So, that is essentially a description of an incipient insurgency.

00:17:08.980 And David, we've used the term civil war, and I think it's quite important that we clarify.

00:17:13.800 What do you mean by that?

00:17:14.900 What is the academic description of civil war?

00:17:17.080 Okay.

00:17:17.400 Well, there are many academic descriptions of civil war.

00:17:20.380 So without boring you too much on that, I use the term civil war in the sense of referring to a form of war in which the belligerents,

00:17:33.660 two or more, the belligerent parties were both under the same sovereign authority at the outbreak of the war.

00:17:41.840 Now, if you take just that as a definitional, as your left and right brackets on the definition, quite obviously a lot of difference,

00:17:54.360 there are a lot of variations that might apply within that category of civil war.

00:18:01.140 So, you know, all wars are unique and all civil wars are therefore unique and messy.

00:18:10.520 Even within the same time, same historical time, there are considerable variation from one place to another,

00:18:17.660 if you look at their civil wars under that definition, let alone historically.

00:18:23.140 So there's a lot of different types that, and I think that your question arises from that observation of people that,

00:18:31.360 well, look, you know, the American civil war, this is, if that's your image of civil war,

00:18:36.840 then David, what are you, what are you, what are you talking about in this case?

00:18:42.300 So I use that term, however, civil war, as opposed to insurgency, as I might have done,

00:18:50.580 I think because, primarily because I want to highlight the fact that this is of its origin,

00:18:58.780 that it is internal in origin and not external in origin.

00:19:02.980 And that is a fundamental quality of civil war, which inclines me to use that term.

00:19:07.960 There are other terms that might apply, and perhaps we'll get into this as the discussion moves on further,

00:19:17.440 that one might apply, like revolution or uprising, rebellion, so on and so forth.

00:19:24.860 And I have tended to avoid the use of those terms because, at least in my mind,

00:19:31.160 that implies something more spasmodic and potentially short-term, right?

00:19:39.720 So that you, I mean, scholars will argue, I mean, scholars will argue about everything.

00:19:46.140 But I think semantically, for me, revolution kind of implies something that is explosive, right?

00:19:54.300 It goes from zero to a hundred, but it's also short in duration.

00:19:59.180 It has a big effect.

00:20:00.640 So with that in mind, the use of those terms, I think, can mislead people from what I want them to understand,

00:20:10.680 is that this isn't a short-term thing.

00:20:13.020 Once you tip into civil war, we can talk about when that occurs,

00:20:19.420 or indeed whether we have already reached the tipping point or the tipping point has been reached already in the past.

00:20:28.680 But once you're in the civil war, they tend to last for a long time.

00:20:32.540 There is a spasmodic quality to them, but there is also a long-term process.

00:20:39.600 There's a prehistory to what leads to them, the building up of the proverbial tender that explodes.

00:20:47.980 And so I want to draw people's attentions to these aspects of the coming conflict, which I've described.

00:20:56.820 And for better or worse, I think that civil war does that better than other terms.

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00:22:39.580 So that's a fantastic description.

00:22:43.760 I thought it was important so everybody's on the right page, because obviously when we talk about terms like civil war,

00:22:48.320 everybody's got their own particular idea, particularly if you're not a scholar or an academic.

00:22:52.860 Now, let's look at the UK.

00:22:55.320 So we've already talked about lack of faith in the institutions, lack of faith in government and politics.

00:23:01.900 How much of a role does multiculturalism and, in my opinion, and a lot of people would share this,

00:23:10.040 the idea that it's not working and, in fact, it's actually detrimental to society,

00:23:17.700 how much of a factor does that play in to your thesis?

00:23:21.340 It might be worth you saying what you mean by multiculturalism, because a lot of people misunderstand that term.

00:23:25.500 Yeah. So multiculturalism is there's lots of different cultures and different religions with different values

00:23:31.460 and different ways of being, existing, different social mores, etc.

00:23:36.660 And by the way, if that is rubbish, please push back.

00:23:39.880 No, I think I'm fine with that as an understanding of multiculturalism.

00:23:47.160 I don't think we need to argue that point.

00:23:50.280 Well, we could if you want, but I don't really see that as necessary.

00:23:53.360 The only thing I would add to that, I think, that really does matter to this discussion is

00:23:57.220 the way I see is exactly as Francis described, but it's the promotion of that worldview,

00:24:03.320 that that is the right way to organize society, as opposed to the idea that while people have their own religions

00:24:09.040 and have their own cultures, their job is to integrate into the central dominant culture of the nation in which they live.

00:24:15.640 And that's where I would make the distinction between a multi-ethnic society,

00:24:20.740 in which people from different backgrounds come together to be one thing,

00:24:23.820 and a multicultural society in which you're kind of told you don't need to be one thing.

00:24:28.040 Just be who you are and just live in the same economic area.

00:24:31.660 And that's kind of it.

00:24:32.600 That's where I think a lot of people's concerns are about this issue.

00:24:36.080 Yeah, I agree with that.

00:24:37.600 That's perfectly logical to my mind.

00:24:40.400 But your question was how important I see this, and I think it's the most important factor.

00:24:47.840 If we had to list factors in order, multiculturalism would be at the top,

00:24:54.200 and if we were to put some kind of ranking on them, it's like 90%.

00:24:57.860 Wow.

00:24:59.680 And why do you think it's 90%?

00:25:01.560 It comes back to what I was, when earlier I used the term pre-political loyalty.

00:25:07.940 Pre-political loyalty is a necessary attribute of a normally functioning political system.

00:25:14.300 Without a unified and single pre-political loyalty,

00:25:23.040 then you can't have a normally functioning democratic system.

00:25:29.380 When I say normally functioning, I mean one that's perceived as actually legitimate.

00:25:34.640 This legitimate is different from legality.

00:25:37.200 We get into that too.

00:25:38.720 But essentially, the main effect is that it completely erodes the idea of pre-political loyalty,

00:25:48.940 which means that you don't get the same effect where people say,

00:25:54.120 well, I don't agree with this decision, but I accept how it was arrived at.

00:26:01.720 I accept the process by which it is arrived at because we're all part of the same family.

00:26:08.880 Think of a nation as a big extended family.

00:26:14.640 And in fact, this is the genius of the nation state.

00:26:16.980 The genius of the nation state is it allows human beings,

00:26:22.820 which is a species that evolved psychologically in small groups,

00:26:31.880 to have intense loyalty, intense personal connections,

00:26:36.920 to actually a rather small number of people.

00:26:39.260 There's a famous number called the Dunbar number,

00:26:41.920 which I think is about 150, if I remember it correctly.

00:26:45.040 And this is the number, basically, of stable personal connections

00:26:51.720 that a normal human being is able to maintain.

00:26:58.820 Nation state is a genius idea for expanding the Dunbar number,

00:27:04.340 very, very large.

00:27:07.040 So, you know, moving to a multicultural post-national model

00:27:15.940 is incredibly destructive to the way that most Western states

00:27:22.640 have governed themselves since modern times,

00:27:27.280 since, well, late modernity anyway.

00:27:30.280 And that's happened effectively in, well, in Europe,

00:27:35.800 effectively in the last 30 years or so,

00:27:40.800 at an absolutely historically frantic and unprecedented pace.

00:27:46.720 And I say it's the biggest thing, you know,

00:27:48.940 and actually that shouldn't be all that controversial.

00:27:51.180 I mean, Angela Merkel said the same thing in Germany.

00:27:54.280 One could question her motives in saying it,

00:27:57.680 but she said it over 10 years ago

00:28:00.040 that multiculturalism was a disaster for Germany. 1.00

00:28:03.800 Three, four months later,

00:28:05.460 David Cameron gives almost exactly the same speech,

00:28:08.060 you know, in which he said that multiculturalism

00:28:11.380 results in ghettoized communities

00:28:14.460 living basically in their silos, unable to...

00:28:18.280 So, in short, multiculturalism is the killer app 1.00

00:28:25.180 for destroying what has been the nation-state model.

00:28:32.840 So we're talking about multiculturalism,

00:28:34.680 but to me, a large part of multiculturalism as well

00:28:37.260 is the issue of religion.

00:28:39.720 So if you have lots of different cultures,

00:28:42.760 but they all share, for instance, the same religion,

00:28:45.080 there's far less likely...

00:28:46.840 Now, of course, there's always fractions in religions

00:28:49.400 and whatever else, and we see this

00:28:50.860 with Sunni and Shia, et cetera, et cetera.

00:28:53.640 But it's far less likely to happen, isn't it,

00:28:56.140 if you import, for instance, people who are all Christian

00:28:59.980 as opposed to Muslims, Christians, et cetera.

00:29:04.760 So I feel that there's a separate line of argument here

00:29:09.540 around integration and the potential for integration

00:29:15.060 and our understanding of identity and so on and so forth,

00:29:18.200 which would be interesting,

00:29:19.360 but maybe as a slight digression from what I think I'm here to do,

00:29:25.700 which is to explain to you why,

00:29:28.120 or explain to your listeners,

00:29:29.400 why you're in actually quite immediate peril

00:29:31.380 from this thing called civil war

00:29:33.400 and why I say multiculturalism is a big part of that.

00:29:38.600 It relates to one of the core ideas

00:29:43.420 in the theories around civil war causation

00:29:46.360 that looks at the makeup of essentially the ethnic,

00:29:52.860 usually the ethnic,

00:29:54.220 but could be the confessional makeup of society.

00:29:57.420 But you have to imagine a bell curve.

00:30:00.160 You know what a bell curve looks like.

00:30:01.820 And on one end, you have very heterogeneous societies,

00:30:05.220 and on the other end, you have very homogenous societies.

00:30:10.400 At both of these ends,

00:30:12.140 the potential for civil war is actually quite low.

00:30:15.580 Very homogenous societies have low potential for a civil war

00:30:20.140 because on account of the homogeneity of that society,

00:30:25.660 they're relatively able to arrive at consensus decisions,

00:30:30.580 even when they're quite painful.

00:30:32.000 So, you know, in times of economic decline

00:30:35.320 or a natural disaster or war or so on,

00:30:38.540 if you have any of the kind of big pressures

00:30:41.280 that might be felt by a given society,

00:30:45.660 whether internal or external in origin,

00:30:49.100 natural or artificial in origin,

00:30:52.060 a highly homogenous society is usually able to weather that

00:30:55.500 because they could say,

00:30:56.720 we need to pull together, right?

00:30:58.340 We need to get through this.

00:31:00.160 We're all in the same, what's the metaphor?

00:31:04.080 We're all in the same boat, okay?

00:31:07.880 Very heterogeneous societies are also relatively stable

00:31:11.560 because it's very difficult for any one group

00:31:16.400 to generate mass potential.

00:31:19.100 There's no power blocks.

00:31:19.740 So, if you've got a country that is broken, say,

00:31:23.260 into 20 groups, each with 5% of the population,

00:31:28.520 then it's very hard for any one

00:31:31.440 or even most manageable coalitions

00:31:34.740 to dominate all of the others.

00:31:38.340 So, there's this paradox.

00:31:40.000 Now, the most vulnerable state is at the top of that curve

00:31:45.040 where you have a formerly dominant majority,

00:31:53.660 which is in fear of losing its status.

00:31:57.780 And in that case,

00:31:59.720 and this is a danger for two reasons.

00:32:04.780 First, because of that fear of losing status.

00:32:07.400 So, in the past, it was your language,

00:32:10.260 it was your culture,

00:32:12.300 it was your sort of ideals and beliefs

00:32:18.120 which essentially set the pattern,

00:32:21.660 set the rules of how that society operates, right?

00:32:25.100 So, there is a fear that you are losing that status.

00:32:29.980 So, your language is not going to be

00:32:31.740 the dominant one anymore.

00:32:33.840 Your cultural preferences will not dominate in that society.

00:32:40.120 So, this might be, in the current context,

00:32:42.920 might refer to attitudes towards women or,

00:32:47.500 well, in the news recently,

00:32:49.440 have been attitudes towards ritual slaughter of animals,

00:32:55.020 you know, like many, many other, right?

00:32:58.180 So, you could say,

00:32:59.200 so there's this sense on the part

00:33:01.000 of the formerly dominant majority

00:33:02.800 that they are losing this status,

00:33:05.780 which impels them,

00:33:09.080 as fear usually does,

00:33:10.700 to act out.

00:33:14.000 At the same time,

00:33:16.420 because their share of the population

00:33:19.480 is still quite large,

00:33:21.280 they don't face the same coordination costs

00:33:24.080 as a group of 5% of the population.

00:33:26.740 So, they still have the potential

00:33:28.860 to form mass movements.

00:33:31.760 They still have the potential muscle to try.

00:33:34.920 They're not necessarily going to succeed in this,

00:33:37.860 but they still have the potential muscle

00:33:39.660 to try and reverse the situation.

00:33:42.780 And if they feel there is an urgency to do so,

00:33:48.820 anyway, you could see why on this bell curve,

00:33:51.720 what that represents

00:33:52.680 is the propensity to civil conflict.

00:33:56.520 And it's most dangerous

00:33:59.340 in exactly the situation

00:34:02.460 faced now in Britain

00:34:04.720 and throughout Western Europe,

00:34:06.120 which is the perception

00:34:06.980 of the indigenous native populations of Europe

00:34:12.260 that they are being displaced

00:34:13.640 in their own homelands.

00:34:15.900 So, what you're saying

00:34:18.840 is that the conditions for civil war,

00:34:22.260 they're sort of approaching optimal

00:34:24.800 at the moment.

00:34:25.900 In that respect, yes.

00:34:27.720 But also in other respects,

00:34:30.340 they are also optimal.

00:34:31.680 This is the weird thing, okay?

00:34:33.420 So, maybe, if I may,

00:34:36.420 I'll give a slightly long answer,

00:34:37.960 but I'll try to get to the point.

00:34:39.580 If I'm to summarize

00:34:40.580 some of the big ideas

00:34:43.020 in the civil war's literature

00:34:44.320 with respect to causation,

00:34:45.920 one of the big factors

00:34:47.680 I've just talked about,

00:34:48.760 which is the,

00:34:50.180 essentially, status loss

00:34:51.880 by a formerly dominant majority.

00:34:54.940 Otherwise known in the literature

00:34:57.600 is referred to as downgrading,

00:34:59.760 but it's effectively the same

00:35:01.180 as the replacement

00:35:01.980 or displacement narrative

00:35:03.400 you hear increasingly

00:35:05.620 in right and far-right circles.

00:35:09.720 Actually, it's not just far-right.

00:35:11.140 I happen to live up

00:35:12.080 in the north of Britain

00:35:12.860 in strongly left-wing areas

00:35:16.140 where it's a very firmly held idea.

00:35:19.260 So, it's not, strictly speaking,

00:35:20.580 actually best understood

00:35:22.480 as a right-left thing.

00:35:23.820 Just to make this

00:35:25.100 slightly more specific,

00:35:26.100 the idea being that

00:35:27.260 white British people

00:35:28.440 are being replaced 0.88

00:35:29.340 by people who don't look like them,

00:35:31.400 who don't share the same culture.

00:35:32.700 Yes, to be very specific, yes.

00:35:34.620 Or to be even more specific,

00:35:36.400 I mean, so we're recording this

00:35:38.720 days after the Glastonbury event,

00:35:41.100 right, so you might say

00:35:43.360 it's between,

00:35:44.660 if you don't want to raise race,

00:35:47.340 if you feel that

00:35:48.360 neurolinguistic programming effect

00:35:51.300 that often occurs in people

00:35:53.700 when you use the words

00:35:55.140 white population,

00:35:56.740 then you might just say,

00:35:58.680 look, the coming conflict

00:36:00.080 is between those people

00:36:01.400 who either express the view

00:36:04.320 or nod at the view

00:36:05.700 that we want our country back

00:36:07.280 and the people who want you 0.99

00:36:09.040 to shut the fuck up, right? 0.99

00:36:10.860 Right, right. 0.99

00:36:11.060 Okay, so those two,

00:36:12.760 to give an example

00:36:13.960 that people can latch onto

00:36:16.360 in the current political climate.

00:36:20.700 So, there is the downgrading effect,

00:36:24.160 which is very central.

00:36:25.060 The other is factionalism.

00:36:27.880 Factionalism is generally recognized

00:36:32.160 as a highly corrosive quality

00:36:37.340 for a political system,

00:36:38.480 to have.

00:36:39.700 The worst sort of factionalism is...

00:36:41.760 Sorry to interrupt, David,

00:36:42.600 what do you mean by factionalism?

00:36:44.420 Factionalism is of an attribute

00:36:46.480 of a political system

00:36:47.580 in which you have actors

00:36:49.880 who are making decisions

00:36:53.700 or acting on the basis

00:36:55.340 of their factional interests

00:36:57.460 rather than the larger national interests.

00:37:00.320 In other words,

00:37:01.020 it's no longer a family,

00:37:02.560 but rather there's a lodger

00:37:03.860 living in the house

00:37:04.920 who only cares about themselves

00:37:06.820 and is not willing to consider

00:37:08.520 the interests of the family

00:37:09.720 as being primary

00:37:11.060 and their own self-interest

00:37:12.480 to be secondary.

00:37:13.540 Right, yes.

00:37:14.380 Right.

00:37:15.640 If you were to think of it

00:37:17.100 in contemporary British terms,

00:37:18.920 I would say, you know,

00:37:19.860 a good example would be

00:37:21.280 the five independent

00:37:22.640 or effectively the five Gaza MPs

00:37:24.800 that are currently sitting

00:37:25.780 in Westminster.

00:37:27.240 We had, in fact,

00:37:29.400 what was the thing

00:37:30.840 that caught attention recently

00:37:32.120 was, you know,

00:37:33.220 this faction was effectively lobbying

00:37:35.360 for the building of an airport

00:37:36.640 in Pakistan

00:37:37.340 for the convenience of...

00:37:39.600 It wasn't just them.

00:37:40.540 There was quite a few

00:37:41.160 Lember MPs who were part of that as well.

00:37:43.100 But essentially,

00:37:43.940 this is what I mean

00:37:44.740 by factionalism.

00:37:47.580 If you're someone

00:37:48.320 who values free inquiry

00:37:49.740 and independent thinking,

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00:38:59.500 And now, back to the show.

00:39:01.660 There are different types

00:39:02.840 of factionalism,

00:39:04.080 but,

00:39:05.480 so it could be

00:39:07.600 an ethnic factionalism

00:39:08.580 or confessional factionalism,

00:39:10.040 but probably the worst sort of,

00:39:13.780 the worst sort of factionalism

00:39:16.660 is known as polar factionalism.

00:39:22.240 Polar factionalism is a term

00:39:25.400 which is used,

00:39:29.120 or I use it,

00:39:30.080 to describe a situation

00:39:32.440 where people are not arguing anymore

00:39:34.940 over issues per se.

00:39:37.040 Like, if you take abortion,

00:39:38.740 for example,

00:39:39.200 or the death penalty,

00:39:40.540 right,

00:39:40.740 you and I may differ

00:39:41.740 on which way we fall

00:39:43.300 on that particular issue.

00:39:44.320 And we may have very, very strong views,

00:39:46.460 often people do,

00:39:47.320 on these issues.

00:39:48.900 That could be a kind of factionalism.

00:39:50.700 But polar factionalism

00:39:52.020 is a situation

00:39:53.260 where we're not arguing

00:39:54.240 about the issue.

00:39:55.620 What we're arguing about

00:39:56.840 is what we perceive

00:39:58.940 to be the consensus opinion

00:40:01.640 within our faction.

00:40:03.520 So if my faction

00:40:04.500 is pro-abortion,

00:40:06.820 right,

00:40:07.860 then I'm going to be pro-abortion, 0.99

00:40:11.300 leaving aside the issues

00:40:15.460 because what I'm looking to,

00:40:17.100 I'm looking around me

00:40:18.260 to my faction,

00:40:20.340 to my tribe

00:40:21.120 as an indicator

00:40:22.400 of what I should believe

00:40:23.780 and how I should act.

00:40:25.800 And one only does that

00:40:27.280 in situations

00:40:28.440 of extreme insecurity.

00:40:31.840 That's an expression

00:40:32.940 of extreme insecurity

00:40:34.640 where essentially

00:40:36.140 what you're now doing

00:40:37.200 is you're burying

00:40:38.120 whatever your own conscious

00:40:39.880 conscience might suggest.

00:40:43.860 Because you perceive

00:40:44.460 the danger to be so great,

00:40:45.980 you have to deal

00:40:46.640 with your tribe.

00:40:47.040 Because you have to be

00:40:48.540 in line with your faction.

00:40:50.060 Right.

00:40:50.440 Okay?

00:40:50.820 Right.

00:40:51.440 So polar factionalism

00:40:52.860 is highly, highly,

00:40:54.660 is the most advanced

00:40:56.240 form of factionalism.

00:40:59.200 We're now in a state

00:41:00.600 increasingly of polar factionalism.

00:41:02.120 That's undoubtedly.

00:41:02.700 Of polar factionalism.

00:41:04.500 The next step

00:41:05.320 after polar factionalism

00:41:06.680 is the war.

00:41:09.880 All right.

00:41:10.800 So the other factor

00:41:13.620 that is often pointed

00:41:15.500 to beyond factionalism

00:41:17.080 and downgrading

00:41:18.180 is loss of faith.

00:41:20.780 Loss of faith,

00:41:22.460 specifically loss of faith

00:41:24.200 in the ability

00:41:27.040 of normal politics

00:41:28.180 to solve the problems.

00:41:29.380 Mm-hmm.

00:41:30.780 Which I would suggest

00:41:32.720 you can measure

00:41:33.580 in various ways.

00:41:35.980 But our own parliament

00:41:37.320 has measured this.

00:41:38.460 Right?

00:41:38.600 So the parliament

00:41:39.340 is some of the most convincing

00:41:42.020 surveys done

00:41:43.920 on people's sense

00:41:45.180 of the legitimacy

00:41:47.460 of politics

00:41:48.360 are conducted

00:41:48.900 by governments themselves.

00:41:50.440 Mm-hmm.

00:41:50.900 They're, for obvious reasons,

00:41:52.300 intensely interested

00:41:53.140 in this question.

00:41:54.320 And the data

00:41:55.040 is perfectly clear.

00:41:56.120 People don't trust.

00:41:57.640 Trust in political institutions

00:41:59.420 is in the cellar.

00:42:00.680 Trust in political figures

00:42:02.020 is abysmal.

00:42:04.680 So measures of trust

00:42:05.840 across all institutions

00:42:07.220 are just in the cellar.

00:42:09.680 And my suggestion here

00:42:12.220 or what I'm trying to do

00:42:13.500 for those listening closely

00:42:15.220 is to say that

00:42:16.320 measures of trust

00:42:17.780 can be taken as proxies

00:42:19.640 for the measure

00:42:21.240 of legitimacy.

00:42:22.900 And legitimacy

00:42:23.460 is like the secret sauce.

00:42:26.380 That's the magic

00:42:27.100 that allows government

00:42:28.860 to work.

00:42:30.120 If you've got legitimacy

00:42:31.800 then your cost

00:42:33.940 of government

00:42:34.520 goes way, way down

00:42:36.240 because people perceive

00:42:37.780 the system

00:42:38.780 to be legitimate

00:42:39.660 therefore they tend

00:42:41.200 to do

00:42:41.760 what they ought to do

00:42:42.880 without being policed

00:42:44.380 all the time.

00:42:45.360 Mm-hmm.

00:42:45.860 Which is why, you know,

00:42:46.880 like British policemen

00:42:47.700 don't have to carry guns

00:42:48.880 or traditionally

00:42:49.920 don't have to carry guns

00:42:51.140 around.

00:42:53.640 British governance

00:42:55.400 historically speaking

00:42:56.980 for the last few centuries

00:42:58.100 has been a kind of genius

00:42:59.500 for government

00:43:00.160 because of this high trust

00:43:02.100 and high legitimacy

00:43:02.920 that we're invested

00:43:04.980 in the system.

00:43:05.880 But that's not there anymore.

00:43:07.540 Mm-hmm.

00:43:07.820 We know that it's not there anymore

00:43:09.180 because we've measured it.

00:43:10.980 And so you have

00:43:12.120 you have all of the

00:43:13.780 the appurtenances

00:43:15.460 of a high trust

00:43:16.480 high legitimate society.

00:43:18.380 If I walk out

00:43:19.140 you walk out of this building

00:43:20.480 you're in the center of London

00:43:21.700 you can't miss it

00:43:23.080 but the spirit's gone.

00:43:25.360 The soul is gone.

00:43:26.660 This is just

00:43:27.500 this is just structure.

00:43:29.260 Mm-hmm.

00:43:30.180 And so you have

00:43:30.860 when I use the word

00:43:32.080 loss of faith

00:43:32.840 I'm not talking about

00:43:33.700 religious faith

00:43:34.440 but I am talking about

00:43:36.180 something

00:43:36.600 that is kind of

00:43:37.860 magical.

00:43:39.260 Legitimacy is hard

00:43:40.460 to

00:43:40.880 point to

00:43:42.360 but you know

00:43:42.960 when you've got it

00:43:43.820 and you don't.

00:43:44.480 Well what you're saying

00:43:45.160 is you have all the

00:43:46.100 structures

00:43:46.760 of a high trust society

00:43:48.760 that rely

00:43:50.220 on people

00:43:51.160 to voluntarily

00:43:52.720 not act

00:43:53.740 in a way

00:43:54.120 that's detrimental

00:43:54.760 while you have

00:43:56.300 a society

00:43:56.920 that is increasingly

00:43:57.760 becoming low trust

00:43:59.060 and that's why

00:44:00.440 the government

00:44:01.460 has to become

00:44:02.660 more

00:44:04.000 muscular

00:44:05.660 about things.

00:44:06.740 There's no other way.

00:44:07.520 It has to police

00:44:08.420 things hard

00:44:09.060 it has to police

00:44:09.680 people's speech

00:44:10.440 because the things

00:44:11.320 that people never

00:44:11.880 would have said

00:44:12.600 are now increasingly

00:44:13.740 being said

00:44:14.460 and therefore

00:44:15.740 the government

00:44:16.340 has to come in

00:44:17.140 and prosecute

00:44:17.880 speech of this kind

00:44:18.720 and speech of that kind

00:44:19.580 and everything else.

00:44:20.520 So take these three

00:44:21.400 factors together

00:44:22.400 which are

00:44:23.900 I would suggest

00:44:25.640 the three big factors

00:44:27.520 that tend to be

00:44:29.560 accounted for

00:44:30.760 as indicators

00:44:32.260 of the potential

00:44:33.120 for civil war

00:44:33.980 we're right

00:44:34.940 in the sweet spot

00:44:35.800 in all of them.

00:44:37.120 Now that's

00:44:38.080 probably strikes

00:44:40.300 people as weird.

00:44:41.240 Undoubtedly

00:44:41.600 it does strike people

00:44:42.720 as weird

00:44:44.720 otherwise

00:44:45.120 I wouldn't be here

00:44:46.340 you wouldn't have

00:44:46.740 invited me to

00:44:47.680 because you know

00:44:48.700 the suggestion

00:44:49.480 is

00:44:51.340 I don't want to say

00:44:53.420 it's controversial

00:44:54.060 because I don't

00:44:54.640 actually think

00:44:55.320 it is controversial

00:44:56.060 in terms of

00:44:56.840 our understanding

00:44:57.500 of reality

00:44:58.460 but at any rate

00:44:59.860 the thing is

00:45:00.640 when I say

00:45:01.400 the word

00:45:01.800 civil war

00:45:02.460 you probably

00:45:03.320 think of

00:45:04.180 a different time

00:45:06.260 or different places

00:45:08.320 not your own home

00:45:09.580 and I'm saying

00:45:11.000 that actually

00:45:12.220 take a step back

00:45:13.700 and look at

00:45:14.740 just what we

00:45:15.760 understand

00:45:16.320 about this

00:45:17.180 and take

00:45:18.680 a realistic

00:45:19.380 look at

00:45:19.940 your own society

00:45:20.860 you realize

00:45:21.740 you are in fact

00:45:23.780 ideally

00:45:25.460 in the

00:45:26.940 quote unquote

00:45:28.060 ideal

00:45:28.600 position.

00:45:30.660 Now that

00:45:30.920 to finish off

00:45:32.660 this line

00:45:35.260 of

00:45:35.540 reasoning

00:45:36.820 I think

00:45:38.260 an objective

00:45:39.400 person

00:45:39.840 and many

00:45:40.280 many people

00:45:40.960 do respond

00:45:41.660 and say

00:45:41.960 well look

00:45:42.420 you know

00:45:42.840 traditionally

00:45:43.900 Britain

00:45:44.320 is a country

00:45:44.980 and you know

00:45:46.160 western states

00:45:46.880 don't have

00:45:47.800 so there are

00:45:49.300 obviously

00:45:49.960 significant

00:45:50.800 barriers

00:45:51.420 to civil war

00:45:52.720 in western

00:45:53.880 countries

00:45:54.400 and David

00:45:54.820 aren't you

00:45:55.220 exaggerating

00:45:56.020 right

00:45:56.380 you know

00:45:56.860 and

00:45:58.040 I would like

00:46:00.180 to make

00:46:01.120 the case

00:46:01.660 that I'm

00:46:02.740 not exaggerating

00:46:03.680 and in fact

00:46:04.900 I suspect

00:46:05.600 that what's

00:46:06.520 going on here

00:46:07.240 is a normalcy

00:46:08.160 bias

00:46:08.700 a kind of

00:46:09.200 expectation

00:46:09.880 of normality

00:46:10.800 that on

00:46:12.340 the part

00:46:14.500 of many

00:46:14.860 people

00:46:15.340 which

00:46:16.580 borders

00:46:17.960 on complacency

00:46:19.140 so

00:46:20.140 one of the

00:46:21.200 chief

00:46:21.640 kind of

00:46:22.320 bulwarks

00:46:22.840 against

00:46:23.640 civil war

00:46:25.360 clearly

00:46:26.460 is wealth

00:46:27.080 right

00:46:28.660 if you're

00:46:29.140 a wealthy

00:46:30.320 place

00:46:31.340 you've got

00:46:31.860 lots of money

00:46:32.460 then you can

00:46:33.300 afford

00:46:34.180 to paper

00:46:36.240 over a lot

00:46:37.180 of cracks

00:46:38.180 right

00:46:38.700 a lot

00:46:39.340 can be done

00:46:40.060 if you think

00:46:40.880 of money

00:46:41.300 as a

00:46:41.960 lubricant

00:46:42.600 as a

00:46:43.360 kind of

00:46:43.580 social

00:46:43.900 lubricant

00:46:44.500 if you've

00:46:45.140 got a lot

00:46:45.520 of money

00:46:45.920 you can

00:46:46.860 you can

00:46:48.080 make things

00:46:48.800 you can

00:46:49.960 make things

00:46:50.620 work

00:46:51.160 bearable

00:46:51.840 bearable

00:46:52.720 yeah

00:46:53.680 at least

00:46:54.260 bearable

00:46:54.720 anyway

00:46:55.000 you're right

00:46:55.380 they can

00:46:55.700 function

00:46:56.180 and my

00:47:00.400 suggestion

00:47:01.300 I'm not an

00:47:02.220 economist

00:47:02.580 but I don't

00:47:03.240 think it's an

00:47:03.720 outlandish

00:47:04.300 suggestion

00:47:05.060 is that

00:47:06.320 as far as

00:47:06.940 the financialization

00:47:08.100 of the economy

00:47:10.020 goes

00:47:10.420 most western

00:47:11.860 economies are

00:47:12.520 at the end

00:47:12.860 of the rope

00:47:13.220 we're just

00:47:13.780 waiting for

00:47:14.560 the hammer

00:47:15.080 to drop

00:47:16.220 essentially

00:47:17.380 so the

00:47:18.300 expectation

00:47:18.820 of the

00:47:19.740 ability

00:47:20.200 of government

00:47:21.020 to continue

00:47:22.020 to paper

00:47:22.620 over

00:47:23.800 problems

00:47:25.360 in society

00:47:26.280 through

00:47:27.060 essentially

00:47:28.260 financial

00:47:28.880 redistribution

00:47:29.980 it's not

00:47:30.360 financial

00:47:30.800 redistribution

00:47:31.540 they're creating

00:47:32.900 money out

00:47:33.400 of thin air

00:47:33.940 they're creating

00:47:35.020 debt

00:47:35.420 to

00:47:36.460 appease

00:47:38.560 existing

00:47:39.620 problems

00:47:40.180 but they're

00:47:41.100 going to run

00:47:41.660 out

00:47:41.840 they're already

00:47:42.400 running out

00:47:42.920 of the ability

00:47:43.460 to do that

00:47:45.180 so the existing

00:47:46.260 problems

00:47:46.900 are just going

00:47:47.620 to emerge

00:47:48.100 okay

00:47:48.380 so another

00:47:50.140 bulwark

00:47:50.940 is

00:47:51.420 kind of

00:47:53.820 kind of

00:47:54.880 say

00:47:55.560 might describe

00:47:56.920 as a

00:47:57.380 customary

00:47:58.220 habit

00:47:59.220 of obedience

00:48:00.280 right

00:48:01.260 so you

00:48:01.780 with a

00:48:02.940 if you

00:48:04.440 have a

00:48:05.180 one nation

00:48:06.760 state

00:48:07.180 which has

00:48:08.500 been

00:48:08.700 normally

00:48:10.300 functioning

00:48:10.960 normally

00:48:11.700 basically

00:48:12.240 well governed

00:48:13.000 for a long

00:48:13.660 time

00:48:14.120 people have

00:48:14.700 gotten into

00:48:15.320 the

00:48:15.540 people have

00:48:17.140 gotten into

00:48:17.620 the habit

00:48:18.040 of sort

00:48:18.800 of obeying

00:48:19.900 right

00:48:21.240 and

00:48:22.440 I think

00:48:23.620 that that

00:48:24.340 is a factor

00:48:25.540 which is

00:48:26.080 very apparent

00:48:26.900 in British

00:48:27.860 society

00:48:28.500 for sure

00:48:29.540 and I

00:48:31.720 think it's

00:48:32.100 one that

00:48:32.720 underpins

00:48:33.400 the observations

00:48:34.280 often of

00:48:35.220 historians

00:48:35.700 who say

00:48:36.500 well look

00:48:37.160 Britain has 0.95

00:48:38.020 relatively speaking

00:48:39.220 has a

00:48:39.840 low tradition

00:48:40.940 of civil

00:48:41.420 wars

00:48:41.700 yes we've

00:48:42.260 had a

00:48:42.500 couple

00:48:42.760 we had

00:48:43.180 the

00:48:43.380 peasant

00:48:43.920 revolt

00:48:44.300 in the

00:48:44.620 late

00:48:44.780 medieval

00:48:45.140 period

00:48:45.680 we had

00:48:46.120 the

00:48:46.240 English

00:48:46.460 civil

00:48:46.720 wars

00:48:47.100 but

00:48:47.320 generally

00:48:49.220 speaking

00:48:49.860 unlike

00:48:50.680 the French

00:48:51.220 say

00:48:51.620 or

00:48:52.060 others

00:48:53.880 the British

00:48:55.260 are

00:48:55.600 basically

00:48:57.320 pretty

00:48:57.680 politically

00:48:58.400 passive

00:48:59.920 they have

00:49:00.300 a

00:49:00.480 culture

00:49:01.540 of

00:49:02.100 obedience

00:49:02.540 as I've

00:49:03.040 described

00:49:03.440 I feel

00:49:04.940 a little

00:49:05.680 cautiously

00:49:06.280 but I do

00:49:07.280 want to

00:49:07.540 push back

00:49:08.100 on my

00:49:08.680 colleagues

00:49:09.680 who are

00:49:10.120 historians

00:49:10.620 on this

00:49:11.440 point

00:49:11.800 because

00:49:12.300 in fact

00:49:13.280 it seems

00:49:14.840 to me

00:49:15.140 that Britain

00:49:15.560 has had

00:49:15.960 a lot

00:49:16.260 of

00:49:16.380 little

00:49:16.680 a lot

00:49:17.600 of

00:49:17.760 rebellions

00:49:18.440 through

00:49:20.880 its

00:49:21.500 history

00:49:21.900 a lot

00:49:22.180 of little

00:49:22.580 revolts

00:49:23.180 but what

00:49:24.080 it's

00:49:24.320 generally

00:49:24.680 also

00:49:25.120 had

00:49:25.500 is a

00:49:26.300 very

00:49:26.540 unified

00:49:27.220 and

00:49:27.740 rather

00:49:28.040 competent

00:49:28.700 governing

00:49:30.100 elite

00:49:30.520 so

00:49:32.580 for

00:49:32.880 example

00:49:33.240 if you

00:49:33.580 look at

00:49:33.880 the British

00:49:34.220 military

00:49:35.500 the British

00:49:36.200 military

00:49:36.620 has

00:49:37.040 performed

00:49:37.960 an aid

00:49:38.740 to the

00:49:39.040 civil

00:49:39.260 power

00:49:39.600 role

00:49:40.020 now

00:49:40.380 for

00:49:40.720 over

00:49:41.880 two

00:49:42.100 centuries

00:49:42.480 and

00:49:43.400 usually

00:49:43.780 pretty

00:49:44.160 effectively

00:49:44.960 so

00:49:46.340 the

00:49:46.520 British

00:49:46.840 kind

00:49:47.520 of

00:49:47.620 power

00:49:47.900 elite

00:49:48.220 has

00:49:48.440 always

00:49:48.680 been

00:49:48.880 pretty

00:49:49.180 good

00:49:49.560 at

00:49:49.740 heading

00:49:50.080 off

00:49:50.500 revolts

00:49:51.540 when

00:49:51.720 they

00:49:51.880 arise

00:49:52.300 suppress

00:49:56.500 them

00:49:56.980 or

00:49:57.280 subvert

00:49:57.780 them

00:49:58.080 or

00:49:59.040 co-opt

00:49:59.460 them

00:49:59.720 and

00:50:00.000 they

00:50:00.120 have

00:50:00.280 done

00:50:00.480 so

00:50:00.720 pretty

00:50:01.020 effectively

00:50:01.580 and

00:50:03.300 there's

00:50:03.480 no

00:50:03.680 denying

00:50:04.100 that

00:50:04.380 there

00:50:04.540 has

00:50:04.860 been

00:50:05.100 a

00:50:05.260 kind

00:50:05.480 of

00:50:05.640 genius

00:50:05.980 for

00:50:07.080 governance

00:50:07.680 over

00:50:08.480 time

00:50:08.860 but

00:50:10.100 so

00:50:10.260 I

00:50:10.400 think

00:50:10.520 it's

00:50:10.660 an

00:50:10.820 exaggeration

00:50:11.500 to

00:50:11.680 say

00:50:11.860 that

00:50:12.040 there

00:50:12.200 is

00:50:12.380 somehow

00:50:13.020 that

00:50:13.460 the

00:50:14.340 British

00:50:14.620 people

00:50:15.140 have

00:50:18.000 this

00:50:18.360 kind

00:50:18.580 of

00:50:18.680 innate

00:50:19.000 habit

00:50:19.400 of

00:50:19.580 just

00:50:19.760 obeying

00:50:22.520 you know

00:50:23.040 putting up

00:50:23.520 with 1.00

00:50:23.740 shit 1.00

00:50:24.080 that 1.00

00:50:24.320 other

00:50:24.520 people

00:50:24.840 don't

00:50:26.760 but

00:50:28.400 more

00:50:29.180 to the

00:50:29.520 point

00:50:29.900 this

00:50:30.700 idea

00:50:31.280 of

00:50:31.780 the

00:50:32.240 existence

00:50:32.700 of

00:50:33.060 a

00:50:33.180 unified

00:50:33.540 and

00:50:33.860 competent

00:50:34.260 elite

00:50:34.800 is

00:50:35.420 highly

00:50:35.800 questionable

00:50:36.380 in

00:50:37.120 the

00:50:38.000 current

00:50:38.880 you've

00:50:39.140 become

00:50:39.360 very

00:50:39.660 British

00:50:40.040 David

00:50:40.380 in

00:50:40.620 your

00:50:40.840 understated

00:50:41.480 British

00:50:42.060 pact

00:50:42.660 and

00:50:42.840 diplomacy

00:50:43.420 okay

00:50:43.840 I'm

00:50:44.280 glad

00:50:44.500 I'm

00:50:45.340 glad

00:50:46.060 I'm

00:50:46.320 glad

00:50:47.480 I've

00:50:47.780 integrated

00:50:48.280 right

00:50:49.080 so

00:50:49.900 you

00:50:50.380 know

00:50:50.540 you

00:50:50.960 both

00:50:51.500 laughed

00:50:51.840 so

00:50:52.020 I

00:50:52.160 really

00:50:52.400 probably

00:50:52.840 don't

00:50:53.140 need

00:50:53.340 to

00:50:53.460 go

00:50:53.620 into

00:50:54.020 substantiation

00:50:54.860 no one

00:50:55.280 thinks

00:50:55.680 the

00:50:55.920 elites

00:50:56.280 are

00:50:56.500 well

00:50:56.800 good

00:50:58.260 or

00:50:58.560 skilled

00:50:59.060 or

00:50:59.300 smart

00:50:59.660 right

00:50:59.960 so

00:51:00.400 no

00:51:00.640 more

00:51:01.360 said

00:51:01.760 on

00:51:02.100 the

00:51:02.260 matter

00:51:02.500 of

00:51:02.700 competence

00:51:03.240 but

00:51:03.600 I

00:51:03.780 think

00:51:04.220 there's

00:51:04.560 something

00:51:04.820 to be

00:51:05.260 said

00:51:05.540 about

00:51:05.880 the

00:51:06.260 idea

00:51:06.780 of

00:51:07.060 the

00:51:07.260 unified

00:51:07.660 elite

00:51:08.180 unified

00:51:09.020 elite

00:51:09.500 is

00:51:10.060 a

00:51:11.560 very

00:51:11.740 important

00:51:12.220 factor

00:51:12.920 usually

00:51:13.720 if

00:51:13.960 the

00:51:14.120 elite

00:51:14.400 can

00:51:14.640 stick

00:51:14.940 together

00:51:15.240 like

00:51:15.480 when

00:51:15.680 things

00:51:16.640 get

00:51:16.840 tough

00:51:17.140 if

00:51:17.320 the

00:51:17.440 elite

00:51:17.640 can

00:51:17.840 stick

00:51:18.100 together

00:51:18.820 they

00:51:20.940 normally

00:51:21.880 will

00:51:22.240 prevail

00:51:22.640 particularly

00:51:23.660 if

00:51:23.920 they

00:51:24.120 can

00:51:26.560 hold

00:51:26.800 the

00:51:26.980 security

00:51:27.300 forces

00:51:27.900 if

00:51:28.140 they

00:51:28.260 can

00:51:28.400 hold

00:51:28.580 the

00:51:28.720 arm

00:51:28.900 so

00:51:29.220 if

00:51:29.320 the

00:51:29.420 elite

00:51:29.700 is

00:51:30.200 competent

00:51:31.020 and

00:51:31.760 unified

00:51:32.360 it

00:51:32.940 can

00:51:33.100 usually

00:51:33.500 weather

00:51:34.000 these

00:51:37.120 periods

00:51:37.540 of

00:51:38.020 turmoil

00:51:38.780 it's

00:51:40.220 not

00:51:40.380 just

00:51:40.580 that

00:51:40.780 this

00:51:41.320 elite

00:51:41.960 is

00:51:42.180 not

00:51:42.380 competent

00:51:42.880 they're

00:51:43.900 also

00:51:44.080 not

00:51:44.300 unified

00:51:44.720 so

00:51:45.260 you're

00:51:45.400 already

00:51:45.660 beginning

00:51:46.060 to

00:51:46.340 see

00:51:46.760 elite

00:51:47.940 defections

00:51:48.680 and

00:51:51.360 you

00:51:51.480 can

00:51:51.580 see

00:51:51.740 that

00:51:52.020 like

00:51:52.360 in

00:51:52.560 the

00:51:52.680 last

00:51:52.920 week

00:51:53.140 how

00:51:53.320 many

00:51:53.580 political

00:51:54.100 movements

00:51:54.620 have

00:51:54.820 been

00:51:54.980 announced

00:51:55.440 into

00:51:55.800 existence

00:51:56.280 just

00:51:56.640 in

00:51:56.800 the

00:51:56.920 last

00:51:57.180 day

00:51:58.260 we've

00:51:58.520 got

00:51:58.660 advance

00:51:59.240 reform

00:52:00.160 restore

00:52:02.520 what

00:52:04.900 are

00:52:05.140 these

00:52:05.960 these

00:52:06.280 are

00:52:06.500 expressions

00:52:07.080 of

00:52:07.880 essentially

00:52:08.820 these

00:52:09.240 are

00:52:09.520 expressions

00:52:10.800 of

00:52:11.240 this

00:52:11.460 feeling

00:52:11.940 that

00:52:12.260 the

00:52:12.460 system

00:52:12.800 is

00:52:13.140 broken

00:52:16.000 right

00:52:16.840 because

00:52:17.820 you

00:52:17.960 wouldn't

00:52:18.340 name

00:52:19.260 a

00:52:19.440 movement

00:52:19.780 restore

00:52:20.960 or

00:52:21.240 reform

00:52:21.680 or

00:52:21.900 advance

00:52:22.340 if

00:52:22.900 you

00:52:23.000 thought

00:52:23.220 things

00:52:23.520 were

00:52:23.680 more

00:52:23.960 or

00:52:24.060 less

00:52:24.240 hunky

00:52:24.540 dory

00:52:24.780 but

00:52:25.000 you

00:52:25.140 wanted

00:52:25.300 to

00:52:25.500 change

00:52:25.760 a few

00:52:26.000 things

00:52:26.400 you know

00:52:27.400 so

00:52:28.300 you're

00:52:28.660 seeing

00:52:29.000 defections

00:52:30.260 from

00:52:30.640 the

00:52:30.860 system

00:52:31.300 and

00:52:31.980 you're

00:52:32.200 seeing

00:52:32.460 also

00:52:33.000 the

00:52:33.540 true

00:52:33.780 allegiances

00:52:34.400 of

00:52:34.960 the

00:52:36.240 power

00:52:37.380 elite

00:52:37.700 become

00:52:38.180 more

00:52:38.560 and more

00:52:38.880 obvious

00:52:39.420 right

00:52:39.940 when

00:52:40.460 people

00:52:40.720 talk

00:52:41.000 about

00:52:41.240 the

00:52:41.420 uni

00:52:41.660 party

00:52:42.040 for

00:52:42.500 example

00:52:42.860 this

00:52:43.540 is

00:52:43.680 effectively

00:52:44.740 what

00:52:45.080 they're

00:52:45.280 talking

00:52:45.560 about

00:52:45.880 is

00:52:46.060 like

00:52:46.320 okay

00:52:46.940 we

00:52:47.200 now

00:52:47.460 recognize

00:52:48.060 that

00:52:48.420 most

00:52:48.700 of

00:52:48.860 what

00:52:49.040 you

00:52:49.180 guys

00:52:50.240 have

00:52:50.400 been

00:52:50.540 arguing

00:52:50.920 about

00:52:51.320 is

00:52:51.500 effectively

00:52:52.000 drama

00:52:52.500 so

00:52:53.160 Ed

00:52:53.380 Balls

00:52:53.840 and

00:52:54.140 George

00:52:55.440 Osborne

00:52:55.940 recently

00:52:57.340 for

00:52:57.640 example

00:52:58.120 had a

00:52:58.760 very

00:52:58.920 congenial

00:52:59.820 kind of

00:53:00.980 palsy

00:53:01.500 discussion

00:53:02.160 about

00:53:02.560 how

00:53:02.860 they

00:53:03.040 both

00:53:03.300 had

00:53:03.480 no

00:53:03.680 idea

00:53:04.060 that

00:53:04.300 there

00:53:04.480 was

00:53:04.680 all

00:53:05.280 this

00:53:05.600 industrial

00:53:08.040 raping

00:53:08.500 going

00:53:08.780 on

00:53:09.060 sorry

00:53:09.580 to

00:53:09.740 interrupt

00:53:10.020 but

00:53:10.220 actually

00:53:10.500 it's

00:53:10.880 much

00:53:11.080 worse

00:53:11.360 than

00:53:11.540 that

00:53:11.700 it

00:53:11.860 wasn't

00:53:12.100 that

00:53:12.240 they

00:53:12.340 had

00:53:12.500 no

00:53:12.700 idea

00:53:13.100 what

00:53:13.620 they

00:53:13.760 actually

00:53:14.120 said

00:53:14.380 if

00:53:14.500 you

00:53:14.600 listen

00:53:14.820 to

00:53:14.960 that

00:53:15.140 clip

00:53:15.420 is

00:53:15.680 they

00:53:16.420 didn't

00:53:16.820 think

00:53:17.140 politically

00:53:17.820 it

00:53:18.780 was

00:53:18.960 something

00:53:19.380 for

00:53:20.300 which

00:53:20.620 there

00:53:20.820 needed

00:53:21.320 to be

00:53:21.740 a

00:53:21.860 discussion

00:53:22.280 effectively

00:53:22.880 that's

00:53:23.260 what

00:53:23.360 they

00:53:23.460 which

00:53:23.900 is

00:53:24.020 far

00:53:24.440 worse

00:53:24.820 in my

00:53:25.120 opinion

00:53:25.480 not

00:53:26.180 knowing

00:53:26.560 about

00:53:26.840 it

00:53:26.940 yeah

00:53:27.020 you're

00:53:27.200 right

00:53:27.400 yeah

00:53:27.620 you're

00:53:27.860 right

00:53:28.040 I mean

00:53:28.620 corbliming

00:53:30.780 I just

00:53:31.620 like

00:53:32.140 undersold

00:53:32.660 something

00:53:33.120 right

00:53:33.460 this

00:53:34.100 wasn't

00:53:34.720 coming

00:53:35.360 across

00:53:35.700 the

00:53:35.880 desks

00:53:36.240 of

00:53:36.520 cabinet

00:53:37.040 ministers

00:53:37.380 I

00:53:37.600 mean

00:53:37.680 I

00:53:37.800 don't

00:53:37.900 know

00:53:37.980 whether

00:53:38.100 you

00:53:38.320 ever

00:53:38.500 had

00:53:38.680 any

00:53:39.000 dealings

00:53:40.080 with

00:53:40.220 it

00:53:40.320 I

00:53:40.480 didn't

00:53:41.340 I

00:53:41.800 didn't

00:53:42.140 directly

00:53:42.560 I

00:53:42.780 mean

00:53:42.880 there

00:53:43.000 was

00:53:43.120 definitely

00:53:43.640 you know

00:53:44.440 there

00:53:44.580 was

00:53:44.700 the

00:53:44.860 emerging

00:53:45.280 prosecutions

00:53:46.260 in places

00:53:47.020 like

00:53:47.260 Rotherham

00:53:47.880 and I

00:53:48.660 guess

00:53:48.840 there

00:53:49.040 was

00:53:49.300 a

00:53:49.480 sense

00:53:49.780 in

00:53:49.980 conservative

00:53:50.400 circles

00:53:50.940 that

00:53:51.420 you know

00:53:51.980 this

00:53:52.140 was

00:53:52.380 embarrassing

00:53:53.400 for

00:53:53.740 Labour

00:53:54.020 because

00:53:54.340 these

00:53:54.760 areas

00:53:55.660 were run

00:53:56.200 by

00:53:56.480 Labour

00:53:56.800 councils

00:53:57.340 that

00:53:58.720 the

00:53:59.100 Labour

00:53:59.360 councils

00:53:59.860 often

00:54:00.340 had

00:54:00.820 drew

00:54:01.100 a lot

00:54:01.300 of

00:54:01.400 support

00:54:01.720 from

00:54:01.920 the

00:54:02.060 local

00:54:02.520 Pakistani

00:54:03.680 origin

00:54:04.080 community

00:54:05.020 that

00:54:05.260 they

00:54:05.400 didn't

00:54:05.560 want

00:54:05.720 to

00:54:05.840 call

00:54:06.240 it

00:54:06.380 out

00:54:06.480 but

00:54:07.240 we

00:54:07.420 never

00:54:07.720 thought

00:54:09.160 that

00:54:09.340 was

00:54:09.460 something

00:54:09.720 that

00:54:09.920 you

00:54:10.060 could

00:54:10.260 politically

00:54:10.880 exploit

00:54:11.640 frankly

00:54:12.160 I

00:54:13.440 would

00:54:13.800 have

00:54:13.900 thought

00:54:14.080 if

00:54:14.240 you

00:54:14.480 thought

00:54:14.740 this

00:54:14.940 was

00:54:15.040 something

00:54:15.320 which

00:54:15.500 was

00:54:15.620 embarrassing

00:54:15.940 for Labour

00:54:16.280 you

00:54:16.480 would

00:54:16.700 have

00:54:16.980 thought

00:54:17.820 I

00:54:18.060 thought

00:54:18.280 it

00:54:18.460 was

00:54:18.640 a

00:54:18.920 way

00:54:19.320 to

00:54:19.680 politically

00:54:20.140 I

00:54:20.780 think

00:54:22.160 when

00:54:22.360 Keir

00:54:22.580 Starmer

00:54:22.840 was

00:54:23.000 going

00:54:23.220 about

00:54:25.020 this

00:54:25.500 in

00:54:25.840 that

00:54:26.040 period

00:54:26.460 it

00:54:26.780 wasn't

00:54:30.340 not

00:54:31.000 competent

00:54:33.040 so

00:54:33.900 you've

00:54:34.040 got

00:54:34.200 elite

00:54:34.540 defections

00:54:35.320 occurring

00:54:36.180 perhaps

00:54:40.500 somewhat

00:54:40.900 less

00:54:41.220 obvious

00:54:41.600 in the

00:54:42.040 British

00:54:42.220 context

00:54:42.780 than

00:54:43.060 in

00:54:43.220 others

00:54:43.520 the

00:54:43.760 most

00:54:44.000 obvious

00:54:44.380 elite

00:54:44.740 defection

00:54:45.200 is

00:54:45.420 Trump

00:54:45.700 but

00:54:47.200 one

00:54:47.780 can

00:54:47.980 think

00:54:48.200 of

00:54:48.480 multiple

00:54:49.080 other

00:54:49.420 examples

00:54:49.960 of

00:54:50.220 essentially

00:54:50.800 what I

00:54:51.260 think

00:54:51.480 is

00:54:51.680 occurring

00:54:52.460 is

00:54:52.680 you

00:54:52.800 have

00:54:53.000 a

00:54:53.160 fracturing

00:54:53.640 of

00:54:53.920 the

00:54:54.560 elite

00:54:54.840 so

00:54:55.820 it's

00:54:56.040 not

00:54:56.300 hey

00:54:56.700 we're

00:54:57.000 all

00:54:57.180 in

00:54:57.320 the

00:54:57.460 same

00:54:57.680 boat

00:54:58.000 it's

00:54:58.560 literally

00:54:58.880 they're

00:54:59.260 all

00:54:59.440 looking

00:54:59.700 for

00:54:59.880 their

00:55:00.060 own

00:55:00.260 life

00:55:00.480 boats

00:55:00.780 and

00:55:01.940 one

00:55:02.160 has

00:55:02.500 that

00:55:02.840 impression

00:55:06.560 which

00:55:07.500 rather

00:55:07.860 suggests

00:55:08.460 therefore

00:55:08.900 that

00:55:09.420 what

00:55:09.720 traditionally

00:55:10.280 has

00:55:10.600 been

00:55:10.780 strong

00:55:11.180 bulwark

00:55:11.720 against

00:55:12.240 civil war

00:55:13.760 in

00:55:14.240 the form

00:55:15.300 of a

00:55:15.540 unified

00:55:15.800 and

00:55:16.360 competent

00:55:16.860 elite

00:55:17.340 no longer

00:55:18.180 is

00:55:18.560 quite

00:55:19.600 the

00:55:19.780 barrier

00:55:20.120 that

00:55:20.400 it

00:55:20.540 once

00:55:20.780 was

00:55:21.080 can

00:55:21.420 I

00:55:21.560 challenge

00:55:21.980 you

00:55:22.180 on

00:55:22.340 this

00:55:22.500 to

00:55:22.720 stress

00:55:23.000 test

00:55:23.280 this

00:55:23.420 because

00:55:23.700 I

00:55:24.180 was

00:55:24.340 about

00:55:24.640 to

00:55:24.900 say

00:55:25.220 isn't

00:55:26.160 the

00:55:26.480 strongest

00:55:26.860 counter

00:55:27.380 argument

00:55:27.800 to

00:55:28.100 your

00:55:28.440 predictions

00:55:29.060 the

00:55:29.740 election

00:55:30.140 of

00:55:30.380 Donald

00:55:30.640 Trump

00:55:30.960 and

00:55:31.340 the

00:55:31.720 incredibly

00:55:32.300 rapid

00:55:32.960 rise

00:55:33.400 of

00:55:33.600 the

00:55:33.780 reform

00:55:34.040 party

00:55:34.360 which

00:55:34.540 is

00:55:34.660 currently

00:55:35.000 on

00:55:35.400 current

00:55:35.940 polling

00:55:36.280 they're

00:55:39.600 said to win

00:55:40.120 hundreds of

00:55:40.660 seats at the

00:55:41.140 next election

00:55:41.660 so

00:55:41.940 isn't that

00:55:42.840 exactly the

00:55:43.540 system working

00:55:44.220 as intended

00:55:44.860 which is

00:55:45.420 things go to 1.00

00:55:46.280 shit 0.99

00:55:46.520 people will 1.00

00:55:47.380 vote for

00:55:47.880 fairly

00:55:48.500 robust

00:55:50.140 challenge to

00:55:51.020 the existing

00:55:51.540 system

00:55:52.080 that will

00:55:52.760 then come in

00:55:53.280 and as we're

00:55:53.660 now seeing

00:55:54.040 in America

00:55:54.540 will do

00:55:55.180 quite a lot

00:55:55.920 to try

00:55:56.300 and set

00:55:56.680 to reset

00:55:57.380 the system

00:55:58.280 back to

00:55:58.740 where it

00:55:59.260 might be

00:56:00.300 perceived as

00:56:00.840 being the

00:56:01.180 right place

00:56:01.560 for it to

00:56:01.860 be

00:56:02.080 that's a

00:56:03.880 fair

00:56:04.080 that's a

00:56:04.860 fair

00:56:04.980 point

00:56:05.460 but I

00:56:07.640 don't

00:56:07.980 invest

00:56:08.500 as much

00:56:10.360 confidence

00:56:11.020 in

00:56:11.720 it

00:56:13.240 as

00:56:16.020 you

00:56:17.420 might

00:56:18.100 from your

00:56:18.960 suggestion

00:56:19.320 anyway

00:56:19.600 maybe it's

00:56:20.040 just a

00:56:20.280 hypothetical

00:56:20.740 you're

00:56:21.620 presenting

00:56:22.220 actually

00:56:23.120 presenting

00:56:23.780 your own

00:56:24.500 point of

00:56:24.880 view

00:56:25.020 but let me

00:56:25.740 deal with

00:56:26.180 it on a

00:56:26.560 hypothetical

00:56:26.960 level

00:56:27.380 it depends

00:56:28.820 how you

00:56:29.160 interpret

00:56:29.640 Trump

00:56:30.960 either

00:56:31.320 Trump

00:56:31.640 or

00:56:31.980 reform

00:56:32.960 actually

00:56:33.500 let's

00:56:33.860 just

00:56:34.040 concentrate

00:56:34.400 on

00:56:34.720 reform

00:56:35.060 I think

00:56:35.520 reform

00:56:35.940 is

00:56:36.200 actually

00:56:36.580 much

00:56:36.900 more

00:56:37.340 my

00:56:38.780 suspicion

00:56:39.360 is

00:56:39.700 it's

00:56:39.880 much

00:56:40.060 more

00:56:40.720 very

00:56:44.680 predictable

00:56:45.200 system

00:56:46.080 defense

00:56:46.540 mechanism

00:56:47.180 where

00:56:48.660 essentially

00:56:49.480 it's a

00:56:49.840 pressure

00:56:50.080 valve

00:56:50.440 reform

00:56:51.780 despite

00:56:52.540 the name

00:56:53.020 is unlikely

00:56:53.600 to

00:56:54.060 reform

00:56:54.780 very

00:56:55.040 much

00:56:55.500 Farage

00:56:57.420 seems to

00:56:57.900 me

00:56:58.100 increasingly

00:56:58.780 a status

00:56:59.840 quo

00:57:00.060 figure

00:57:00.500 why do

00:57:02.660 you say

00:57:02.900 that

00:57:03.160 primarily

00:57:04.200 because of

00:57:04.820 his statements

00:57:05.480 and his

00:57:06.820 and Richard

00:57:07.400 Tice's

00:57:07.840 statements

00:57:08.340 around the

00:57:09.560 central issue

00:57:10.140 which is

00:57:10.460 multiculturalism

00:57:11.380 around which

00:57:12.180 both men

00:57:12.780 expressed a

00:57:13.640 kind of

00:57:14.060 or actually

00:57:15.640 it was not

00:57:16.140 just

00:57:16.320 that was

00:57:17.220 very

00:57:17.460 specifically

00:57:18.060 put to

00:57:18.920 Tice

00:57:19.360 in a

00:57:19.760 recent

00:57:20.040 interview

00:57:20.540 that

00:57:22.600 you know

00:57:23.620 Britain

00:57:23.940 I think

00:57:24.560 it was

00:57:24.720 Matt

00:57:24.920 Goodwin's

00:57:25.620 point

00:57:28.680 that by

00:57:29.300 2063

00:57:30.180 the white

00:57:31.720 British

00:57:31.960 population

00:57:32.540 would be

00:57:33.040 in the

00:57:34.640 minority

00:57:35.640 and

00:57:36.220 the

00:57:37.160 interviewer

00:57:37.940 asked

00:57:38.280 well

00:57:38.560 are you

00:57:39.180 worried

00:57:39.420 about

00:57:39.700 that

00:57:40.040 and you

00:57:40.580 could see

00:57:40.900 he was

00:57:41.400 obviously

00:57:42.660 uncomfortable

00:57:43.900 hesitated

00:57:45.140 for a

00:57:45.600 bit

00:57:45.800 and then

00:57:46.180 said

00:57:46.440 well

00:57:46.800 you know

00:57:47.760 I'll be 0.92

00:57:50.200 dead by 0.87

00:57:50.620 then 0.90

00:57:50.860 I'll be 0.98

00:57:51.580 dead by 0.87

00:57:52.000 then

00:57:52.300 right

00:57:52.640 as though

00:57:53.640 politicians

00:57:54.300 are not

00:57:54.700 supposed to

00:57:55.140 think about

00:57:55.640 20 or

00:57:56.380 30 years

00:57:56.840 in the

00:57:57.640 future

00:57:57.980 Farage

00:57:59.000 has already

00:57:59.580 made it

00:58:00.920 clear in

00:58:01.600 numerous

00:58:01.980 interviews

00:58:02.500 that

00:58:03.060 he's

00:58:04.160 at any

00:58:05.620 rate

00:58:06.100 at least

00:58:07.300 publicly

00:58:07.780 very sanguine

00:58:08.520 about

00:58:08.900 this

00:58:10.500 is this

00:58:11.200 a pose

00:58:11.820 you know

00:58:12.780 is he

00:58:13.220 basically

00:58:13.980 posing for

00:58:15.620 a degree

00:58:16.240 of political

00:58:16.700 respectability

00:58:17.600 with a view

00:58:18.140 with a view

00:58:18.940 to catching

00:58:19.720 swing voters

00:58:20.480 so that he

00:58:21.080 can be

00:58:21.740 more radical

00:58:22.480 in government

00:58:23.920 if he ever

00:58:24.480 gets to it

00:58:25.720 hold on

00:58:26.140 I rather

00:58:26.480 suspect

00:58:26.920 hold on

00:58:27.640 but my

00:58:28.020 understanding

00:58:28.500 of the

00:58:28.920 Farage

00:58:29.300 position

00:58:29.840 is

00:58:31.340 effectively

00:58:32.640 that he

00:58:33.900 believes in

00:58:34.580 the end

00:58:34.900 of multiculturalism

00:58:36.020 and the

00:58:36.660 celebration

00:58:37.040 of British

00:58:37.820 identity

00:58:38.340 as the

00:58:38.800 uniting

00:58:39.480 world view

00:58:42.360 into which

00:58:43.140 our multi-ethnic

00:58:45.260 society

00:58:45.760 can buy in

00:58:46.520 right

00:58:47.100 well I mean

00:58:47.660 what else is there

00:58:48.320 you deport 0.92

00:58:48.820 millions of

00:58:49.380 people because

00:58:49.800 they're not

00:58:50.060 white

00:58:50.380 like

00:58:50.880 so let's

00:58:52.220 let's

00:58:53.020 park this

00:58:53.920 park for

00:58:54.440 us

00:58:54.680 for

00:58:55.460 a moment

00:58:57.760 I'm just

00:58:58.680 stressing the

00:58:59.440 idea

00:58:59.720 this isn't

00:59:00.160 to try and

00:59:00.600 catch it

00:59:00.920 I get it

00:59:01.320 I'm happy

00:59:01.960 with your

00:59:03.480 line of

00:59:03.980 questioning

00:59:04.320 I'm just

00:59:04.700 trying to

00:59:05.060 address it

00:59:05.620 in a

00:59:06.360 systematic

00:59:07.060 manner

00:59:08.180 let me

00:59:10.140 introduce you

00:59:10.780 to the

00:59:11.140 people I

00:59:11.800 work with

00:59:12.300 to protect

00:59:12.880 my family

00:59:13.600 against

00:59:13.980 financial

00:59:14.520 instability

00:59:15.220 inflation

00:59:15.980 and turmoil

00:59:16.700 for me

00:59:17.520 one of the

00:59:18.300 best ways

00:59:18.800 to safeguard

00:59:19.340 your wealth

00:59:19.900 is by

00:59:20.240 investing in

00:59:20.880 gold

00:59:21.160 and that's

00:59:21.800 why I

00:59:22.340 trust the

00:59:22.840 pure gold

00:59:23.380 company

00:59:23.820 here's a

00:59:24.700 tip

00:59:24.900 if you

00:59:25.440 buy

00:59:25.720 UK minted

00:59:26.760 gold coins

00:59:27.440 like

00:59:27.700 sovereigns

00:59:28.320 you won't

00:59:29.040 pay

00:59:29.280 VAT

00:59:29.740 when you

00:59:30.220 buy them

00:59:30.680 or capital

00:59:31.420 gains

00:59:31.820 tax

00:59:32.120 when you

00:59:32.460 sell

00:59:32.660 them

00:59:32.860 all the

00:59:33.460 profit

00:59:33.760 is yours

00:59:34.320 to keep

00:59:34.800 and the

00:59:35.380 best part

00:59:35.880 gold

00:59:36.600 is completely

00:59:37.300 private

00:59:37.780 investment

00:59:38.260 it's outside

00:59:39.320 the banking

00:59:39.800 system

00:59:40.200 so it

00:59:40.600 can't be

00:59:40.980 manipulated

00:59:41.440 by government

00:59:42.200 or anyone

00:59:42.840 else

00:59:43.200 unlike

00:59:43.940 digital

00:59:44.460 assets

00:59:44.920 it's yours

00:59:45.740 in the

00:59:46.220 truest

00:59:46.540 sense

00:59:46.920 the pure

00:59:47.760 gold

00:59:48.020 company

00:59:48.400 is trusted

00:59:48.960 by first

00:59:49.560 time

00:59:49.800 investors

00:59:50.240 and seasoned

00:59:50.780 professionals

00:59:51.320 alike

00:59:51.740 what I

00:59:52.620 really appreciate

00:59:53.300 about them

00:59:53.820 is their

00:59:54.120 knowledgeable

00:59:54.540 pressure-free

00:59:55.260 approach

00:59:55.720 they explain

00:59:56.760 everything

00:59:57.340 clearly

00:59:57.780 so you

00:59:58.400 feel confident

00:59:59.080 about your

00:59:59.560 decisions

00:59:59.980 and they

01:00:00.660 never push

01:00:01.180 you to

01:00:01.480 buy

01:00:01.700 physical

01:00:02.820 gold

01:00:03.200 has stood

01:00:03.720 the test

01:00:04.200 of time

01:00:04.660 as a

01:00:04.960 store

01:00:05.180 of value

01:00:05.640 and it

01:00:06.420 offers

01:00:06.700 peace

01:00:07.040 of mind

01:00:07.440 that other

01:00:07.940 assets

01:00:08.320 can't

01:00:08.720 match

01:00:09.060 it's

01:00:09.760 reassuring

01:00:10.260 to know

01:00:10.660 that even

01:00:11.400 if the

01:00:11.740 banking

01:00:12.020 system

01:00:12.460 falters

01:00:12.900 your

01:00:13.380 gold

01:00:13.700 and its

01:00:14.160 value

01:00:14.480 remain

01:00:15.020 safe

01:00:15.460 whether

01:00:16.200 you're

01:00:16.440 looking

01:00:16.600 to

01:00:16.820 diversify

01:00:17.440 your

01:00:17.680 investments

01:00:18.160 protect

01:00:18.740 your

01:00:19.040 savings

01:00:19.400 or just

01:00:19.940 gain

01:00:20.220 the

01:00:20.360 security

01:00:20.760 of

01:00:21.180 owning

01:00:21.540 a

01:00:21.840 real

01:00:22.200 physical

01:00:22.960 asset

01:00:23.440 we

01:00:23.940 highly

01:00:24.240 recommend

01:00:24.740 the

01:00:24.920 pure

01:00:25.120 gold

01:00:25.400 company

01:00:25.820 click

01:00:26.580 the link

01:00:26.960 in the

01:00:27.360 description

01:00:27.780 or go

01:00:28.280 to

01:00:28.500 pure

01:00:28.800 gold

01:00:29.480 dot

01:00:29.760 co

01:00:30.000 slash

01:00:30.300 trigger

01:00:30.560 to get

01:00:31.240 your free

01:00:31.620 copy

01:00:31.940 of the

01:00:32.240 investor

01:00:32.580 guide

01:00:32.900 that's

01:00:33.480 pure

01:00:33.760 dash

01:00:34.300 gold

01:00:34.620 dot

01:00:34.880 co

01:00:35.100 slash

01:00:35.380 trigger

01:00:35.660 take

01:00:36.200 control

01:00:36.560 of your

01:00:36.860 financial

01:00:37.260 future

01:00:37.720 today

01:00:38.120 there

01:00:39.800 is

01:00:40.060 the

01:00:40.360 matter

01:00:40.660 of

01:00:41.120 the

01:00:41.300 electability

01:00:41.900 of

01:00:42.200 reform

01:00:42.580 there

01:00:43.540 is

01:00:43.680 the

01:00:43.800 matter

01:00:44.020 of

01:00:44.260 the

01:00:44.400 intention

01:00:44.820 of

01:00:46.200 reform

01:00:46.800 both

01:00:47.460 of

01:00:47.600 which

01:00:47.860 we

01:00:48.800 could

01:00:48.940 argue

01:00:49.240 I'm

01:00:49.700 not a

01:00:50.000 political

01:00:50.240 scientist

01:00:50.720 I'm

01:00:50.980 not a

01:00:51.220 political

01:00:51.500 pundit

01:00:51.980 and so

01:00:52.600 maybe

01:00:55.240 we've

01:00:55.640 kind of

01:00:55.900 exhausted

01:00:56.360 my

01:00:57.220 potential

01:00:57.680 for

01:00:58.040 commenting

01:00:59.280 cogently

01:01:02.700 on that

01:01:04.500 specifically

01:01:05.060 but then

01:01:05.880 there

01:01:06.240 is

01:01:06.840 moreover

01:01:07.400 the ability

01:01:08.100 of

01:01:08.680 reform

01:01:09.260 even

01:01:09.920 if

01:01:11.180 Farage

01:01:11.880 is

01:01:12.300 radical

01:01:13.400 in

01:01:13.740 his

01:01:14.200 intention

01:01:15.040 and

01:01:15.860 does

01:01:16.200 manage

01:01:17.380 to be

01:01:18.020 elected

01:01:18.800 with

01:01:19.160 a

01:01:19.600 decent

01:01:20.180 majority

01:01:20.800 that

01:01:21.500 will

01:01:21.620 probably

01:01:21.960 just

01:01:22.220 be

01:01:22.400 subverted

01:01:22.820 by

01:01:23.880 the

01:01:24.560 state

01:01:26.780 bureaucracy

01:01:27.360 which

01:01:28.740 can

01:01:29.160 tangle

01:01:29.500 him up

01:01:29.900 at least

01:01:30.560 for

01:01:30.780 a

01:01:30.940 parliament

01:01:31.280 with

01:01:32.040 I

01:01:32.300 think

01:01:32.500 very

01:01:32.780 little

01:01:33.040 difficulty

01:01:33.600 should

01:01:34.040 it

01:01:37.340 wish

01:01:38.240 to

01:01:38.520 which

01:01:39.120 by all

01:01:40.000 accounts

01:01:40.340 it probably

01:01:40.800 would

01:01:41.060 wish

01:01:41.380 to

01:01:41.960 I

01:01:42.140 think

01:01:42.260 that's

01:01:42.500 a

01:01:42.620 pretty

01:01:42.740 reasonable

01:01:43.320 suspicion

01:01:46.440 and we

01:01:46.960 know

01:01:47.240 that

01:01:47.560 there is

01:01:48.140 a

01:01:49.080 huge

01:01:49.820 potential

01:01:50.340 of

01:01:50.720 bureaucracies

01:01:51.500 to

01:01:52.420 subvert

01:01:53.080 even

01:01:55.100 quite

01:01:55.480 radical

01:01:56.620 reformers

01:01:57.500 because

01:01:58.100 that's

01:01:58.440 what

01:01:58.560 happened

01:01:58.880 in

01:01:59.120 Trump's

01:01:59.900 first

01:02:00.560 administration

01:02:02.440 so

01:02:03.620 it

01:02:04.260 may

01:02:04.520 be

01:02:04.840 that

01:02:05.500 the

01:02:05.740 political

01:02:06.080 system

01:02:06.820 is

01:02:08.160 able

01:02:08.520 to

01:02:08.920 generate

01:02:09.720 reforms

01:02:15.620 reformers

01:02:16.880 rather

01:02:17.200 who

01:02:18.260 can

01:02:19.280 take

01:02:19.820 big

01:02:22.420 potentially

01:02:24.120 very

01:02:24.580 very big

01:02:25.080 decisions

01:02:25.540 and you

01:02:25.860 mentioned

01:02:26.220 exactly

01:02:26.720 the

01:02:26.980 main

01:02:28.220 one

01:02:28.460 is

01:02:28.620 what do

01:02:28.880 you do

01:02:29.100 with

01:02:29.280 people

01:02:29.660 how many

01:02:32.540 people

01:02:32.840 have

01:02:33.020 arrived

01:02:33.300 since

01:02:33.560 2013

01:02:34.300 I don't

01:02:34.740 know

01:02:34.900 anyway

01:02:35.200 multiple

01:02:35.980 millions

01:02:36.460 what do

01:02:36.720 you do

01:02:41.200 but

01:02:42.780 the

01:02:44.400 even if

01:02:46.600 they get

01:02:47.120 into

01:02:47.420 so

01:02:48.100 the point

01:02:49.260 is

01:02:49.460 the political

01:02:50.120 system

01:02:50.600 might be

01:02:51.440 able to

01:02:51.860 plausibly

01:02:52.880 be able to

01:02:53.500 generate

01:02:54.020 some kind

01:02:54.740 of answers

01:02:55.220 to that

01:02:56.140 but not

01:02:57.100 at the

01:02:57.540 speed

01:02:57.940 of the

01:02:58.920 development

01:02:59.480 of events

01:03:00.160 so

01:03:01.240 if you

01:03:01.720 think about

01:03:02.960 people's

01:03:03.500 sense of

01:03:04.080 urgency

01:03:05.120 as I

01:03:06.080 described

01:03:06.640 when I

01:03:06.980 was talking

01:03:07.440 about

01:03:08.080 the

01:03:08.640 perception

01:03:09.080 of

01:03:09.320 downgrading

01:03:10.060 that's

01:03:11.020 skyrocketing

01:03:12.280 and the

01:03:13.360 pace of

01:03:14.560 political

01:03:14.980 change

01:03:15.740 seems to

01:03:16.520 be

01:03:17.160 creeping

01:03:17.960 along

01:03:19.320 right

01:03:19.800 there's

01:03:20.320 no

01:03:20.580 one

01:03:21.520 is a

01:03:21.940 ballistic

01:03:22.220 missile

01:03:22.800 and the

01:03:23.580 other

01:03:23.860 is

01:03:24.460 a

01:03:25.480 London

01:03:28.100 bus

01:03:28.580 it's

01:03:29.240 not

01:03:29.400 going

01:03:29.640 to

01:03:29.760 catch

01:03:29.980 the

01:03:31.000 problem

01:03:35.560 it's

01:03:35.820 not

01:03:35.940 going

01:03:36.060 to

01:03:36.160 catch

01:03:36.420 the

01:03:36.620 mood

01:03:36.860 and

01:03:37.320 that

01:03:37.480 difference

01:03:39.020 between

01:03:40.700 what

01:03:41.440 needs

01:03:41.700 to be

01:03:42.020 done

01:03:42.300 and

01:03:42.760 what

01:03:42.960 has

01:03:44.720 the

01:03:44.920 plausible

01:03:45.320 potential

01:03:45.920 to be

01:03:46.500 done

01:03:46.860 within

01:03:47.380 the

01:03:47.720 normal

01:03:48.040 political

01:03:48.500 system

01:03:49.100 is

01:03:49.680 the

01:03:49.860 thing

01:03:50.160 that

01:03:50.500 drives

01:03:51.020 the

01:03:51.940 breakdown

01:03:53.140 of

01:03:54.020 the

01:03:54.360 political

01:03:54.760 system

01:03:55.120 is

01:03:55.320 the

01:03:55.440 very

01:03:55.600 definition

01:03:56.100 of

01:03:56.520 that

01:03:56.840 problem

01:03:58.320 that I

01:03:58.960 described

01:03:59.560 at the

01:03:59.880 beginning

01:04:00.160 so

01:04:00.840 David

01:04:01.220 if we

01:04:02.740 accept

01:04:03.240 and I'm

01:04:03.940 inclined

01:04:04.320 unfortunately

01:04:04.880 to accept

01:04:05.560 your

01:04:06.220 hypothesis

01:04:07.260 that

01:04:07.740 the

01:04:08.480 conditions

01:04:08.860 are

01:04:09.140 optimal

01:04:09.540 what

01:04:11.300 is

01:04:12.300 what

01:04:12.620 is it

01:04:13.240 an event

01:04:13.900 that

01:04:14.240 sparks

01:04:14.900 a civil

01:04:15.720 war

01:04:16.060 is it

01:04:17.360 a series

01:04:17.980 of events

01:04:18.820 could it

01:04:19.960 be like

01:04:20.340 a clip

01:04:20.760 going

01:04:21.100 viral

01:04:21.560 on social

01:04:22.280 media

01:04:22.720 I mean

01:04:24.220 if we

01:04:24.500 look back

01:04:25.120 at last

01:04:25.540 summer

01:04:25.860 where you

01:04:26.440 had

01:04:26.800 the

01:04:27.120 horrific

01:04:27.780 atrocity

01:04:29.660 in

01:04:29.860 Southport

01:04:30.280 is it

01:04:30.660 something

01:04:31.000 like

01:04:31.320 that

01:04:31.680 yeah

01:04:33.520 so

01:04:33.920 the

01:04:34.400 most

01:04:34.640 common

01:04:35.060 metaphor

01:04:35.700 when

01:04:37.200 talking

01:04:38.100 about

01:04:38.420 employed

01:04:39.800 when

01:04:40.020 talking

01:04:40.280 about

01:04:40.500 this

01:04:40.680 subject

01:04:41.040 is

01:04:41.460 that

01:04:41.980 of

01:04:42.120 tinder

01:04:42.560 and

01:04:42.740 the

01:04:42.860 spark

01:04:43.220 right

01:04:43.860 or

01:04:44.060 sometimes

01:04:44.540 of

01:04:44.780 like

01:04:45.000 a

01:04:45.220 powder

01:04:45.900 cake

01:04:46.260 and

01:04:49.820 your

01:04:50.160 question

01:04:50.460 is

01:04:50.780 like

01:04:51.200 what

01:04:51.360 is

01:04:51.500 the

01:04:51.660 spark

01:04:52.060 but

01:04:53.040 and

01:04:53.480 I'll

01:04:53.800 try

01:04:54.000 to

01:04:54.280 as

01:04:55.220 best

01:04:55.420 as

01:04:55.580 one

01:04:56.020 can

01:04:56.320 to

01:04:56.540 answer

01:04:56.900 what

01:04:57.120 the

01:04:57.280 spark

01:04:57.560 is

01:04:57.900 but

01:04:58.580 the

01:04:58.680 important

01:04:59.000 thing

01:04:59.220 is

01:04:59.360 not

01:04:59.520 the

01:04:59.660 spark

01:05:00.020 important

01:05:00.660 thing

01:05:00.880 is

01:05:01.020 the

01:05:01.160 cake

01:05:01.440 important

01:05:02.100 thing

01:05:02.360 is

01:05:02.520 the

01:05:02.660 tinder

01:05:03.000 right

01:05:03.540 the

01:05:04.140 you

01:05:04.800 know

01:05:04.940 sparks

01:05:05.360 are

01:05:05.520 not

01:05:05.660 a

01:05:05.800 problem

01:05:06.180 if

01:05:07.120 you

01:05:07.620 are

01:05:07.980 not

01:05:08.220 in

01:05:08.560 a

01:05:08.780 room

01:05:09.120 full

01:05:09.400 of

01:05:09.540 gun

01:05:09.700 powder

01:05:10.060 sparks

01:05:10.960 are

01:05:11.120 not

01:05:11.240 a

01:05:11.380 problem

01:05:11.740 if

01:05:12.020 you're

01:05:12.140 not

01:05:12.300 wearing

01:05:12.700 you

01:05:13.140 know

01:05:13.300 plastic

01:05:14.100 petrol

01:05:14.480 soaked

01:05:14.880 you

01:05:16.400 know

01:05:16.600 clothing

01:05:17.880 you get

01:05:19.580 my

01:05:19.760 line

01:05:20.200 of

01:05:20.340 reasoning

01:05:20.660 and

01:05:21.920 that's

01:05:22.160 what I

01:05:22.420 urge

01:05:22.620 people

01:05:22.940 to

01:05:23.160 concentrate

01:05:23.560 on

01:05:23.980 is

01:05:24.320 what

01:05:24.640 are

01:05:24.760 the

01:05:24.900 policies

01:05:25.500 what

01:05:25.920 are

01:05:26.440 the

01:05:26.600 things

01:05:27.380 that

01:05:27.640 have

01:05:27.820 contributed

01:05:28.580 to

01:05:29.280 the

01:05:29.520 existence

01:05:29.960 of

01:05:30.280 all

01:05:30.540 this

01:05:30.840 tinder

01:05:31.740 all

01:05:32.260 of

01:05:32.420 that

01:05:32.660 okay

01:05:33.840 go

01:05:33.980 back

01:05:34.140 to

01:05:34.240 my

01:05:34.400 iceberg

01:05:34.800 metaphor

01:05:35.220 all

01:05:35.840 that

01:05:36.100 like

01:05:38.180 frustrated

01:05:38.900 political

01:05:39.460 energy

01:05:39.960 in

01:05:40.620 the

01:05:40.800 system

01:05:41.160 that's

01:05:43.960 the

01:05:44.100 real

01:05:44.840 problem

01:05:45.260 and

01:05:45.800 that

01:05:46.520 didn't

01:05:47.100 come

01:05:47.420 overnight

01:05:47.840 that

01:05:48.820 took

01:05:49.080 a

01:05:49.260 long

01:05:49.640 time

01:05:49.960 to

01:05:50.120 build

01:05:50.360 and

01:05:50.880 whether

01:05:51.800 it

01:05:52.060 was

01:05:52.280 accidental

01:05:52.920 or

01:05:53.360 deliberate

01:05:53.840 the

01:05:54.640 fact

01:05:54.880 of

01:05:55.000 the

01:05:55.100 matter

01:05:55.300 is

01:05:55.620 there

01:05:55.860 is

01:05:56.020 a

01:05:56.180 gigantic

01:05:56.700 ball

01:05:57.680 of

01:05:58.100 political

01:05:58.640 energy

01:05:59.220 that

01:06:00.060 is

01:06:00.580 building

01:06:02.320 up

01:06:02.660 okay

01:06:03.240 now

01:06:04.100 the

01:06:04.240 spark

01:06:04.760 the

01:06:05.600 spark

01:06:05.900 is

01:06:06.140 just

01:06:06.580 intrinsically

01:06:08.060 unpredictable

01:06:09.380 if you

01:06:10.320 think of

01:06:10.600 the

01:06:10.720 Arab

01:06:10.940 Spring

01:06:11.440 lots

01:06:12.200 of

01:06:12.340 people

01:06:12.640 might

01:06:14.340 have

01:06:14.820 predicted

01:06:15.280 that

01:06:16.160 and

01:06:17.800 many

01:06:18.140 people

01:06:18.380 did

01:06:18.660 that

01:06:19.120 the

01:06:19.680 Arab

01:06:19.920 world

01:06:20.340 was

01:06:20.800 highly

01:06:21.560 politically

01:06:22.060 frustrated

01:06:22.760 socially

01:06:24.060 very

01:06:25.640 fractured

01:06:26.360 lots

01:06:26.800 of

01:06:26.940 political

01:06:28.540 economic

01:06:29.160 problems

01:06:29.740 that were

01:06:30.060 kind of

01:06:30.320 building up

01:06:30.880 over

01:06:31.100 long

01:06:31.460 term

01:06:31.780 but

01:06:33.620 no one

01:06:33.940 was going

01:06:34.280 to

01:06:34.440 predict

01:06:34.800 that

01:06:35.100 the

01:06:35.880 thing

01:06:36.100 that

01:06:36.260 would

01:06:36.420 set

01:06:36.640 it

01:06:36.780 off

01:06:37.080 was

01:06:37.520 an

01:06:38.080 Algerian

01:06:38.700 fruit

01:06:39.620 seller

01:06:39.980 getting

01:06:40.600 so

01:06:40.920 frustrated

01:06:41.660 with

01:06:42.140 the

01:06:42.440 local

01:06:42.880 basically

01:06:43.880 licensing

01:06:44.480 police

01:06:46.200 that he

01:06:46.560 poured

01:06:46.780 petrol

01:06:47.140 on

01:06:47.380 himself

01:06:47.720 and

01:06:48.020 set

01:06:48.900 himself

01:06:49.200 on

01:06:49.420 fire

01:06:49.700 in

01:06:49.860 a

01:06:49.960 market

01:06:50.280 and

01:06:50.620 so

01:06:51.560 yeah

01:06:52.160 because

01:06:52.560 you can't

01:06:52.840 you can't

01:06:53.820 just

01:06:53.980 you just

01:06:54.600 can't

01:06:54.820 predict

01:06:55.100 those

01:06:55.400 low

01:06:56.400 grade

01:06:56.640 effects

01:06:57.080 in

01:06:58.160 prefacing

01:06:58.620 your

01:06:58.920 question

01:06:59.340 you talked

01:06:59.800 about

01:07:00.040 last

01:07:00.340 summer

01:07:00.640 so

01:07:01.360 you know

01:07:01.860 I would

01:07:02.140 think

01:07:02.420 yes

01:07:02.940 another

01:07:03.380 attack

01:07:05.700 of that

01:07:06.220 sort

01:07:06.500 might be

01:07:07.100 a target

01:07:08.040 people

01:07:08.820 tend to

01:07:09.420 get upset

01:07:09.840 when

01:07:10.340 their

01:07:12.020 children

01:07:12.360 get slashed

01:07:13.060 apart 0.72

01:07:13.840 you know

01:07:14.500 like if

01:07:15.080 you want

01:07:16.440 to make

01:07:16.680 an enemy 0.99

01:07:17.100 behead

01:07:18.180 someone's 1.00

01:07:19.020 daughter

01:07:19.360 or

01:07:20.460 attempt

01:07:20.760 to

01:07:21.000 I mean

01:07:22.980 it's probably

01:07:24.380 a pretty

01:07:25.860 egregious

01:07:26.380 example

01:07:26.840 but that's

01:07:27.360 the literal

01:07:27.720 reality

01:07:28.260 that is

01:07:28.700 what

01:07:28.920 that is

01:07:29.460 what

01:07:29.800 that is

01:07:30.460 what

01:07:30.640 heard

01:07:30.820 what

01:07:31.580 happened

01:07:31.960 it could

01:07:33.320 be

01:07:33.960 and I

01:07:34.920 think

01:07:35.140 the

01:07:36.220 government's

01:07:37.480 main fear

01:07:38.060 is that

01:07:38.700 now

01:07:39.160 is

01:07:39.540 it

01:07:40.240 could

01:07:40.560 be

01:07:40.900 just

01:07:41.800 the

01:07:42.200 steady

01:07:42.680 drip

01:07:43.240 of

01:07:43.560 increasingly

01:07:44.280 vile

01:07:44.900 revelations

01:07:45.680 coming out

01:07:46.220 of the

01:07:46.440 rape gang

01:07:46.860 inquiry

01:07:47.320 which

01:07:49.660 is

01:07:50.100 as opposed

01:07:51.640 to

01:07:52.120 terrorism

01:07:52.740 very close

01:07:53.740 in terms

01:07:54.260 of people's

01:07:54.900 perceived

01:07:55.260 offensiveness

01:07:55.980 not quite

01:07:57.220 as bad

01:07:57.660 as

01:07:57.860 decapitating 0.99

01:07:59.760 your

01:08:00.360 child

01:08:00.860 but

01:08:01.180 still

01:08:02.400 pretty

01:08:02.880 offensive

01:08:03.420 to one's

01:08:04.100 person

01:08:06.780 and on

01:08:08.540 a much

01:08:09.000 larger

01:08:09.340 scale

01:08:09.680 that's

01:08:10.220 the thing

01:08:10.620 is that

01:08:11.020 it's

01:08:11.340 whereas

01:08:12.080 terrorism

01:08:13.020 is

01:08:13.480 frankly

01:08:15.200 a statistical

01:08:15.920 blip

01:08:16.400 in the

01:08:17.600 national

01:08:18.240 death

01:08:19.080 register

01:08:19.620 the

01:08:21.240 rape 0.93

01:08:24.180 scandal

01:08:24.540 is

01:08:24.920 gigantic

01:08:26.000 and

01:08:26.620 has

01:08:27.080 touched

01:08:27.520 many

01:08:28.120 many

01:08:28.400 many

01:08:28.760 many

01:08:29.140 many

01:08:29.420 many

01:08:29.660 people

01:08:30.160 and

01:08:31.200 many

01:08:31.520 of them

01:08:31.760 still

01:08:32.040 alive

01:08:32.440 although

01:08:33.660 lives

01:08:34.280 probably

01:08:34.960 very

01:08:35.580 almost

01:08:36.640 basically

01:08:37.120 permanently

01:08:37.640 affected

01:08:38.700 so it

01:08:40.040 might be

01:08:40.460 just a

01:08:40.860 kind of

01:08:41.100 steady

01:08:41.400 drip

01:08:41.780 of

01:08:42.000 increasingly

01:08:42.620 vile

01:08:43.200 revelations

01:08:43.860 coming out

01:08:44.560 of the

01:08:45.360 rape gang

01:08:45.940 inquiry

01:08:46.520 or it

01:08:48.380 might be

01:08:48.920 something else

01:08:49.460 that nobody's

01:08:50.140 nobody's

01:08:51.280 predicted

01:08:51.680 my

01:08:53.020 suspicion

01:08:53.700 and

01:08:54.740 my

01:08:56.380 feeling

01:08:57.220 is

01:08:57.700 sorry

01:09:00.380 I would

01:09:00.820 say

01:09:01.020 two

01:09:01.540 further

01:09:01.820 points

01:09:02.220 on

01:09:02.460 this

01:09:03.000 is

01:09:03.680 increasingly

01:09:07.000 everyone

01:09:08.500 wants to

01:09:09.080 fight

01:09:09.340 right

01:09:10.480 it's not

01:09:12.900 just on

01:09:13.280 the left

01:09:13.780 or on

01:09:14.180 the right

01:09:14.600 it's

01:09:15.360 you know

01:09:15.820 people are

01:09:16.540 angry in

01:09:17.380 all quarters

01:09:18.020 you saw

01:09:18.440 that in

01:09:18.800 Glastonbury

01:09:19.480 you're not

01:09:19.900 going to

01:09:20.080 get 5,000

01:09:20.820 people

01:09:21.320 clapping

01:09:23.180 like seals

01:09:23.920 at someone

01:09:25.600 screaming 0.51

01:09:25.980 death

01:09:26.300 to the

01:09:26.600 IDF

01:09:27.180 if this

01:09:29.060 is not

01:09:29.380 a

01:09:29.820 group of

01:09:32.620 people

01:09:32.920 who are

01:09:33.380 pretty

01:09:34.260 belligerent

01:09:34.860 right

01:09:35.320 that's

01:09:35.740 just an

01:09:37.520 expression

01:09:37.920 of an

01:09:38.520 underlying

01:09:38.960 mood

01:09:39.380 which I

01:09:39.820 think

01:09:40.080 is

01:09:40.420 inclined

01:09:42.440 to

01:09:43.920 fight

01:09:44.200 and

01:09:47.020 the

01:09:47.860 extremists

01:09:48.360 on either

01:09:48.780 side

01:09:50.240 know

01:09:50.860 how to

01:09:51.460 know how

01:09:52.480 to

01:09:52.680 direct

01:09:53.020 that

01:09:53.300 energy

01:09:53.720 it's

01:09:54.380 not

01:09:54.620 a

01:09:54.820 mystery

01:09:55.180 how

01:09:55.500 you

01:09:55.720 take

01:09:56.080 existing

01:09:57.440 fractures

01:09:58.040 in a

01:09:58.380 society

01:09:58.840 putting

01:09:59.500 on a

01:09:59.800 marble

01:10:00.040 table

01:10:00.380 and

01:10:00.640 peel them

01:10:02.440 apart

01:10:02.800 maybe

01:10:04.240 hit

01:10:04.460 a dance

01:10:06.500 dance

01:10:06.520 class

01:10:06.900 maybe

01:10:07.320 kindergarten

01:10:08.000 next

01:10:08.460 or

01:10:08.720 maternity

01:10:09.360 hospital

01:10:09.880 or

01:10:10.300 something

01:10:11.440 else

01:10:11.740 nobody's

01:10:13.580 thought of

01:10:14.520 but we

01:10:15.020 know

01:10:15.320 the effect

01:10:16.260 of this

01:10:16.760 and the

01:10:17.440 extremists

01:10:17.900 know how

01:10:18.280 to do it

01:10:18.780 and the

01:10:19.060 technology

01:10:19.600 of doing it

01:10:20.180 is not

01:10:20.480 all that

01:10:20.820 difficult

01:10:21.180 go down

01:10:21.840 to Tesco

01:10:22.360 or go

01:10:23.080 on Amazon

01:10:23.820 get

01:10:24.140 yourself

01:10:24.400 a

01:10:24.560 big

01:10:24.720 knife

01:10:25.060 get

01:10:27.140 yourself

01:10:27.420 a

01:10:27.580 panel

01:10:27.820 van

01:10:28.160 drive

01:10:28.540 down

01:10:28.960 there are

01:10:30.460 all kinds

01:10:30.880 it's not

01:10:31.620 difficult

01:10:32.040 to do

01:10:32.540 it's more

01:10:33.040 the will

01:10:33.920 to do it

01:10:34.480 rather than

01:10:35.040 the technical

01:10:35.720 ability

01:10:36.340 the

01:10:37.520 technical

01:10:38.980 the strength

01:10:40.720 or technical

01:10:41.220 ability

01:10:41.700 to

01:10:42.000 do it

01:10:43.340 and

01:10:45.260 the

01:10:47.160 second point

01:10:48.420 I wish

01:10:49.560 to make

01:10:50.000 on this

01:10:50.900 with respect

01:10:51.540 to

01:10:52.160 the

01:10:55.280 spark

01:10:57.060 is

01:10:57.400 I think

01:10:58.600 for me

01:11:00.980 the

01:11:01.320 telling

01:11:02.020 point

01:11:02.560 is

01:11:03.320 going

01:11:03.720 to be

01:11:04.280 when

01:11:04.820 an

01:11:06.340 avowedly

01:11:06.980 native

01:11:08.280 group

01:11:08.700 that no

01:11:09.740 one's

01:11:09.960 heard

01:11:10.140 about

01:11:10.520 does

01:11:11.760 something

01:11:12.200 and

01:11:13.260 I think

01:11:14.040 my

01:11:15.300 feeling

01:11:17.180 is that

01:11:17.980 this

01:11:18.320 in

01:11:19.280 Britain

01:11:19.580 as in

01:11:20.260 other

01:11:20.560 countries

01:11:21.000 but

01:11:21.220 particularly

01:11:21.660 in

01:11:21.880 Britain

01:11:22.160 where

01:11:23.920 it's

01:11:25.280 first

01:11:25.560 going

01:11:25.860 to

01:11:26.080 surface

01:11:26.680 on

01:11:27.300 the

01:11:27.580 we

01:11:29.500 want

01:11:29.720 our

01:11:29.880 country

01:11:30.160 back

01:11:30.480 side

01:11:30.860 is

01:11:31.780 going

01:11:32.040 to

01:11:32.180 be

01:11:32.520 in

01:11:32.980 a

01:11:33.540 pattern

01:11:34.300 that

01:11:34.660 looks

01:11:34.920 a bit

01:11:35.200 like

01:11:35.480 a

01:11:35.620 Latin

01:11:35.800 American 1.00

01:11:36.260 dirty 0.95

01:11:36.680 war

01:11:37.000 so

01:11:38.280 it's

01:11:39.100 likely

01:11:39.380 to

01:11:39.560 be

01:11:39.720 an

01:11:39.860 attack

01:11:40.360 I

01:11:41.000 think

01:11:41.240 a

01:11:41.400 targeted

01:11:41.760 attack

01:11:42.360 on

01:11:42.860 a

01:11:43.580 noteworthy

01:11:44.160 figure

01:11:44.500 or a

01:11:44.960 series

01:11:45.240 of

01:11:45.460 noteworthy

01:11:46.000 figures

01:11:46.400 in

01:11:46.940 the

01:11:47.080 judiciary

01:11:47.560 possibly

01:11:48.860 or

01:11:49.640 influencers

01:11:51.320 of

01:11:52.980 some

01:11:55.080 kind

01:11:55.600 and

01:11:56.840 you'll

01:11:57.000 see a

01:11:57.280 group

01:11:57.560 that

01:11:58.260 no one's

01:11:59.120 heard about

01:11:59.660 because

01:11:59.980 they've

01:12:00.260 recognized

01:12:00.720 that

01:12:01.340 actually

01:12:02.320 if you

01:12:02.580 don't

01:12:02.700 want to

01:12:02.940 get

01:12:03.080 caught

01:12:03.460 because

01:12:03.860 the

01:12:04.000 only

01:12:04.160 thing

01:12:04.460 that

01:12:04.620 the

01:12:04.740 British

01:12:04.940 police

01:12:05.320 really

01:12:05.640 are

01:12:05.860 looking

01:12:06.140 at

01:12:06.380 intensely

01:12:06.860 is

01:12:07.460 online

01:12:07.840 behavior

01:12:08.380 just

01:12:09.320 don't

01:12:09.580 blather

01:12:09.900 about

01:12:10.220 it

01:12:10.360 on

01:12:10.500 the

01:12:10.640 internet

01:12:10.960 and

01:12:11.540 the

01:12:11.960 police

01:12:12.180 will

01:12:12.340 have

01:12:12.540 no

01:12:13.360 idea

01:12:13.640 so

01:12:14.020 I

01:12:14.160 suspect

01:12:14.520 that

01:12:15.560 there

01:12:16.020 are

01:12:16.100 going to

01:12:16.280 be

01:12:16.420 plenty

01:12:16.760 of

01:12:16.980 sparks

01:12:17.500 this

01:12:18.680 summer

01:12:19.040 and

01:12:19.320 continuing

01:12:19.800 on

01:12:20.260 any

01:12:20.720 one

01:12:20.940 of

01:12:21.100 which

01:12:21.300 has

01:12:21.520 the

01:12:21.720 potential

01:12:22.160 to

01:12:22.500 set

01:12:22.860 that

01:12:23.200 tinder

01:12:23.640 alight

01:12:24.980 but the

01:12:25.700 really

01:12:26.260 electrifying

01:12:27.020 moment

01:12:27.500 the

01:12:27.980 really

01:12:28.480 kind of 0.99

01:12:28.900 oh shit 1.00

01:12:29.380 you're 1.00

01:12:29.780 now in it

01:12:30.380 moment

01:12:30.760 is going

01:12:31.240 to be

01:12:31.680 when someone

01:12:32.560 probably

01:12:33.240 I'm going to

01:12:34.320 guess

01:12:34.660 goes after

01:12:35.580 a judge

01:12:36.080 and

01:12:37.660 you can

01:12:37.900 see

01:12:38.120 in terms

01:12:44.040 of

01:12:44.220 doxing

01:12:45.020 and

01:12:45.200 briefing

01:12:45.560 on

01:12:46.020 who

01:12:46.660 these

01:12:47.680 people

01:12:49.540 are

01:12:49.820 that's

01:12:50.360 been

01:12:50.760 happening

01:12:51.140 over the

01:12:51.500 last

01:12:51.680 18

01:12:52.060 months

01:12:52.340 with

01:12:52.500 increasing

01:12:52.900 frequency

01:12:53.400 I'm

01:12:53.900 really

01:12:54.120 glad

01:12:54.480 that

01:12:54.780 you

01:12:55.020 mentioned

01:12:55.420 social

01:12:55.840 media

01:12:56.160 because

01:12:56.500 that

01:12:57.320 is

01:12:57.520 something

01:12:57.880 that

01:12:58.140 we

01:12:58.300 haven't

01:12:58.840 spoken

01:12:59.220 about

01:12:59.620 but

01:13:00.280 that

01:13:00.720 is

01:13:01.100 social

01:13:01.720 media

01:13:02.200 particularly

01:13:03.360 Twitter

01:13:04.980 that

01:13:05.340 provides

01:13:05.820 more

01:13:06.180 sparks

01:13:06.700 than

01:13:07.000 any

01:13:07.460 other

01:13:07.720 type

01:13:08.060 doesn't

01:13:08.460 it

01:13:08.640 really

01:13:08.960 yeah

01:13:10.780 there's

01:13:11.540 I think

01:13:12.900 that

01:13:13.140 social

01:13:13.560 media

01:13:13.860 has

01:13:14.260 we

01:13:16.020 could

01:13:16.400 we do

01:13:16.960 a whole

01:13:17.300 you know

01:13:17.820 a series

01:13:18.240 of

01:13:18.840 discussions

01:13:20.060 around

01:13:20.460 the effect

01:13:20.940 of social

01:13:21.420 media

01:13:21.800 but

01:13:23.720 I think

01:13:24.360 the way

01:13:25.480 in which

01:13:26.020 social

01:13:26.640 media

01:13:27.040 both

01:13:28.300 contributes

01:13:28.940 to the

01:13:29.800 fracturing

01:13:30.320 of society

01:13:31.060 as well

01:13:32.060 as the

01:13:32.460 is

01:13:33.260 significant

01:13:34.100 right

01:13:34.640 so part

01:13:35.160 of the

01:13:35.360 reason

01:13:35.680 why

01:13:36.300 we have

01:13:37.100 this

01:13:37.520 factionation

01:13:39.160 that I

01:13:39.680 that I

01:13:40.440 discussed

01:13:40.960 actually

01:13:41.740 relates

01:13:42.340 to

01:13:43.320 technological

01:13:44.760 developments

01:13:45.500 which allow

01:13:46.140 people to

01:13:47.040 live in

01:13:47.840 silos

01:13:48.780 in a way

01:13:49.940 that was

01:13:50.640 harder to

01:13:51.120 do in

01:13:51.600 less

01:13:52.700 connected

01:13:57.140 times

01:13:58.960 the other

01:14:00.080 thing is

01:14:00.620 that social

01:14:01.160 media does

01:14:01.880 is it

01:14:02.340 allows

01:14:02.840 extremes

01:14:03.880 to find

01:14:04.720 each

01:14:04.960 other

01:14:05.260 so

01:14:05.740 there's

01:14:06.020 this

01:14:06.280 you may

01:14:07.460 have

01:14:07.520 heard

01:14:07.900 of the

01:14:08.320 long

01:14:08.880 tail

01:14:09.280 effect

01:14:09.840 very

01:14:12.400 kind of

01:14:13.800 pertinent

01:14:14.400 idea

01:14:14.840 usually in

01:14:15.420 marketing

01:14:15.820 but basically

01:14:16.460 it says

01:14:16.860 there are

01:14:17.840 niche markets

01:14:19.760 for things

01:14:20.460 things like

01:14:20.860 whatever

01:14:21.360 polka dot

01:14:27.580 socks

01:14:28.000 or whatever

01:14:28.860 or

01:14:30.000 maybe lots

01:14:33.440 of people

01:14:33.760 like polka dot

01:14:34.800 socks

01:14:35.060 a better

01:14:36.060 example

01:14:36.520 but

01:14:36.760 the long

01:14:38.260 tail

01:14:38.540 basically

01:14:38.980 says

01:14:39.400 you've

01:14:39.880 got

01:14:40.020 these

01:14:40.220 niche

01:14:40.560 interests

01:14:41.220 and

01:14:41.740 that's

01:14:43.800 interesting

01:14:44.520 to marketers

01:14:45.460 in a

01:14:45.940 connected

01:14:46.320 world

01:14:46.740 because

01:14:47.300 now you

01:14:48.000 can address

01:14:48.520 these

01:14:48.780 people

01:14:49.140 without a

01:14:50.480 physical

01:14:50.760 store

01:14:51.180 because

01:14:51.580 of the

01:14:53.480 connected

01:14:54.900 nature

01:14:55.320 of things

01:14:55.740 you can

01:14:55.980 now

01:14:56.640 provide

01:14:57.220 a product

01:14:58.400 to these

01:14:59.220 people

01:14:59.600 and

01:14:59.960 despite

01:15:00.820 the fact

01:15:01.260 that they're

01:15:01.760 distributed

01:15:02.960 all over

01:15:03.480 the place

01:15:03.960 in aggregate

01:15:05.240 they can

01:15:06.700 market

01:15:06.980 and

01:15:08.580 so

01:15:09.020 basically

01:15:09.520 the weirdos

01:15:10.120 actually I'm

01:15:11.460 loading the

01:15:12.000 term

01:15:12.220 when I say

01:15:12.780 weirdos

01:15:13.240 I just say 0.87

01:15:13.680 like the

01:15:14.060 extremes

01:15:14.580 can find

01:15:15.400 each other

01:15:15.900 in ways

01:15:16.700 that

01:15:17.120 that

01:15:18.160 hadn't

01:15:20.000 been the

01:15:20.380 case

01:15:20.640 before

01:15:21.240 although

01:15:22.180 this

01:15:22.560 when it

01:15:25.160 comes down

01:15:25.600 to it

01:15:25.900 still

01:15:26.880 though

01:15:27.300 the

01:15:27.860 basic

01:15:28.260 point

01:15:28.660 is

01:15:28.920 I

01:15:29.140 think

01:15:30.240 is

01:15:30.500 that

01:15:30.800 insurgency

01:15:31.480 which

01:15:33.860 we might

01:15:34.260 say

01:15:35.040 is a

01:15:35.320 form

01:15:35.540 of

01:15:35.700 civil

01:15:35.900 war

01:15:36.180 is

01:15:37.320 a

01:15:37.560 social

01:15:37.840 movement

01:15:38.420 and

01:15:38.640 any

01:15:38.980 social

01:15:39.360 movement

01:15:39.820 depends

01:15:40.740 on

01:15:41.360 having

01:15:42.420 essentially

01:15:45.300 you

01:15:46.060 have

01:15:46.580 passive

01:15:47.620 supporters

01:15:48.200 and

01:15:50.800 social

01:15:52.120 media

01:15:52.380 is

01:15:52.560 great

01:15:52.860 for

01:15:53.560 reaching

01:15:54.240 your

01:15:54.880 passive

01:15:55.580 supporters

01:15:56.800 so

01:15:57.800 once

01:15:58.560 you've

01:15:58.720 got

01:15:58.860 a

01:15:59.140 kind

01:15:59.540 of

01:15:59.660 viable

01:16:00.000 narrative

01:16:00.500 which

01:16:01.140 states

01:16:01.840 a

01:16:02.040 grievance

01:16:02.560 which

01:16:03.060 indicates

01:16:04.280 a

01:16:04.460 specific

01:16:05.480 conscience

01:16:06.320 community

01:16:07.080 i.e.

01:16:07.660 a particular

01:16:08.340 grievance

01:16:08.800 community

01:16:09.400 states

01:16:10.200 a

01:16:10.360 grievance

01:16:10.840 states

01:16:11.360 a

01:16:11.560 potential

01:16:12.220 rectification

01:16:13.060 of that

01:16:13.520 grievance

01:16:13.960 and call

01:16:14.320 for support

01:16:14.860 so

01:16:15.460 now

01:16:15.640 you

01:16:15.800 begin

01:16:16.100 to

01:16:16.320 animate

01:16:16.700 your

01:16:17.180 group

01:16:17.640 of

01:16:18.180 essentially

01:16:19.840 passive

01:16:20.340 supporters

01:16:20.900 who aren't

01:16:21.500 necessarily

01:16:21.960 doing

01:16:22.480 anything

01:16:22.900 for you

01:16:23.600 except

01:16:24.100 maybe

01:16:25.440 pressing

01:16:25.860 like

01:16:26.200 or just

01:16:26.640 listening

01:16:27.300 along

01:16:27.760 right

01:16:28.320 then

01:16:30.080 you've

01:16:30.260 got

01:16:30.380 your

01:16:30.620 active

01:16:31.140 supporters

01:16:31.660 the

01:16:32.000 subset

01:16:32.340 of

01:16:32.620 that

01:16:32.880 your

01:16:33.400 active

01:16:33.720 supporters

01:16:34.300 might

01:16:36.000 be

01:16:36.340 helping

01:16:37.520 to

01:16:37.760 amplify

01:16:38.180 or

01:16:38.480 propagate

01:16:38.820 your

01:16:39.260 message

01:16:40.040 or

01:16:40.600 delivering

01:16:41.100 you

01:16:41.560 information

01:16:42.760 for example

01:16:43.560 if you're

01:16:44.240 one of

01:16:44.600 your

01:16:44.740 active

01:16:45.060 supporters

01:16:45.600 happens

01:16:45.980 to be

01:16:46.400 a

01:16:46.560 person

01:16:46.900 who

01:16:47.140 is

01:16:47.300 in

01:16:47.460 a

01:16:48.160 gatekeeping

01:16:49.000 role

01:16:49.360 that

01:16:50.040 can

01:16:50.200 be

01:16:50.780 very

01:16:53.900 important

01:16:54.840 from

01:16:55.240 lots

01:16:56.640 of

01:16:56.800 points

01:16:57.000 of

01:16:57.160 view

01:16:57.360 but

01:16:57.620 if

01:16:57.840 you're

01:16:57.980 trying

01:16:58.180 to

01:16:58.480 infiltrate

01:16:59.020 an

01:16:59.200 organization

01:16:59.780 for

01:17:00.120 example

01:17:00.580 or

01:17:01.260 simply

01:17:01.620 you're

01:17:01.880 just

01:17:02.040 trying

01:17:02.240 to

01:17:02.440 generate

01:17:02.900 an

01:17:03.120 accurate

01:17:03.460 intelligence

01:17:04.060 picture

01:17:04.460 of

01:17:04.720 things

01:17:05.020 it's

01:17:05.500 very

01:17:05.680 helpful

01:17:05.940 to

01:17:06.180 have

01:17:06.380 people

01:17:06.800 who

01:17:07.400 are

01:17:07.520 active

01:17:07.860 supporters

01:17:08.380 in

01:17:08.840 the

01:17:09.040 system

01:17:09.420 who

01:17:09.940 can

01:17:10.100 do

01:17:10.320 stuff

01:17:10.780 for

01:17:11.000 you

01:17:11.260 but

01:17:11.720 they're

01:17:11.860 not

01:17:12.080 literally

01:17:12.440 going

01:17:12.760 out

01:17:12.960 and

01:17:13.100 breaking

01:17:13.360 heads

01:17:13.760 for

01:17:14.140 you

01:17:14.380 right

01:17:14.660 I mean

01:17:15.320 you

01:17:15.600 may

01:17:16.060 have

01:17:16.260 a

01:17:16.440 bunch

01:17:16.640 of

01:17:16.780 active

01:17:17.100 supporters

01:17:17.600 who

01:17:17.940 are

01:17:18.500 grandmothers

01:17:21.040 old men 0.98

01:17:22.880 fat men 0.95

01:17:24.180 whatever 0.99

01:17:25.520 you

01:17:25.920 basically

01:17:26.840 you

01:17:27.600 don't

01:17:28.920 need

01:17:29.140 them

01:17:29.340 for

01:17:29.520 their

01:17:29.680 physical

01:17:30.040 muscle

01:17:30.440 you

01:17:30.640 need

01:17:30.840 them

01:17:31.040 for

01:17:31.260 their

01:17:31.440 position

01:17:31.880 and

01:17:32.660 you

01:17:32.780 need

01:17:32.980 your

01:17:33.160 adherents

01:17:33.780 your

01:17:34.560 adherents

01:17:35.100 are

01:17:35.280 the

01:17:35.460 guys

01:17:36.300 who

01:17:36.520 were

01:17:37.220 and

01:17:38.540 it's

01:17:38.700 probably

01:17:39.100 mostly

01:17:39.580 guys

01:17:39.900 the

01:17:41.260 adherents

01:17:41.660 are

01:17:41.820 those

01:17:42.100 who

01:17:42.360 are

01:17:42.640 prepared

01:17:43.280 to

01:17:43.880 really

01:17:46.260 go

01:17:46.500 beyond

01:17:46.840 the

01:17:47.020 law

01:17:47.220 to

01:17:47.700 break

01:17:47.960 stuff

01:17:48.360 or

01:17:48.640 to

01:17:48.840 break

01:17:49.060 people

01:17:49.440 in

01:17:49.660 various

01:17:50.000 ways

01:17:50.380 and

01:17:50.580 how

01:17:50.740 many

01:17:50.920 of

01:17:51.100 those

01:17:51.380 do

01:17:51.560 you

01:17:51.700 need

01:17:52.040 surprisingly

01:17:55.580 few

01:17:56.120 depends

01:17:56.740 on

01:17:57.020 what

01:17:57.240 you're

01:17:57.580 trying

01:17:58.420 to

01:17:58.720 achieve

01:17:59.260 and

01:17:59.740 what

01:18:01.480 the

01:18:01.740 techniques

01:18:02.260 you

01:18:02.480 apply

01:18:03.340 if

01:18:03.620 you're

01:18:03.780 trying

01:18:04.100 to

01:18:04.580 do

01:18:04.980 it

01:18:05.120 through

01:18:05.300 street

01:18:05.620 fighting

01:18:05.980 then

01:18:07.200 you're

01:18:07.600 probably

01:18:07.880 going

01:18:08.160 to

01:18:08.340 need

01:18:08.640 a

01:18:09.640 fairly

01:18:09.900 substantial

01:18:12.960 number

01:18:14.880 if

01:18:15.600 you're

01:18:15.740 talking

01:18:15.960 about

01:18:16.200 the

01:18:16.360 interwar

01:18:16.800 period

01:18:17.240 in

01:18:17.460 central

01:18:17.760 Europe

01:18:18.060 and

01:18:18.500 street

01:18:18.800 fighting

01:18:19.100 is

01:18:19.320 the

01:18:19.460 name

01:18:19.640 of

01:18:19.740 the

01:18:19.820 game

01:18:20.040 that's

01:18:20.340 why

01:18:20.580 the

01:18:20.960 Nazis

01:18:21.460 developed

01:18:22.640 the

01:18:22.820 brown

01:18:23.060 shirts

01:18:23.400 and

01:18:23.560 all

01:18:23.720 of

01:18:23.840 that

01:18:23.980 right

01:18:27.520 because

01:18:28.120 you need

01:18:28.500 that

01:18:28.720 kind

01:18:29.040 of

01:18:29.200 physical

01:18:30.240 muscle

01:18:30.680 and

01:18:30.900 you

01:18:31.020 need

01:18:31.240 it

01:18:31.480 in

01:18:31.680 fairly

01:18:32.080 large

01:18:32.460 numbers

01:18:32.980 I

01:18:35.040 don't

01:18:35.180 think

01:18:35.360 that's

01:18:35.800 our

01:18:36.320 climate

01:18:36.660 is

01:18:36.960 a

01:18:37.280 political

01:18:37.540 climate

01:18:37.980 or

01:18:38.180 social

01:18:38.480 climate

01:18:38.820 is

01:18:39.300 the

01:18:39.480 same

01:18:39.780 and

01:18:40.160 I

01:18:40.260 don't

01:18:40.460 expect

01:18:40.840 that

01:18:41.120 it's

01:18:42.620 street

01:18:43.100 fighting

01:18:43.540 and

01:18:44.040 rioting

01:18:44.760 that

01:18:45.220 is

01:18:45.520 likely

01:18:46.000 to

01:18:46.220 be

01:18:46.520 the

01:18:49.200 operational

01:18:49.900 technique

01:18:50.540 in

01:18:51.260 use

01:18:52.000 to get

01:18:53.360 to the

01:18:53.620 point

01:18:53.880 of your

01:18:54.640 question

01:18:55.040 I

01:18:55.440 think

01:18:55.940 that

01:18:56.220 the

01:18:56.500 most

01:18:57.140 likely

01:18:58.680 technique

01:19:01.040 or

01:19:01.600 certainly

01:19:01.860 the one

01:19:02.240 that is

01:19:02.540 most

01:19:02.800 talked

01:19:03.180 about

01:19:03.520 within

01:19:04.020 anti-status

01:19:04.880 quo

01:19:05.080 movements

01:19:05.640 and

01:19:05.840 this

01:19:06.920 is

01:19:07.160 a

01:19:07.580 discussion

01:19:08.040 that

01:19:08.620 they've

01:19:10.800 been

01:19:10.900 talking

01:19:11.120 about

01:19:11.400 this

01:19:11.620 for a

01:19:12.140 long

01:19:12.400 long

01:19:12.640 time

01:19:12.940 it's

01:19:13.100 very

01:19:13.300 well

01:19:13.540 established

01:19:13.980 ideas

01:19:14.500 the

01:19:14.780 idea

01:19:15.160 that

01:19:15.700 the

01:19:16.000 cities

01:19:16.260 themselves

01:19:16.840 are

01:19:17.580 both

01:19:17.840 the

01:19:18.060 locus

01:19:18.580 of

01:19:19.100 the

01:19:20.560 problem

01:19:21.060 in a

01:19:21.760 sense

01:19:22.000 so that

01:19:22.380 it's

01:19:22.800 the

01:19:23.000 cities

01:19:23.320 that are

01:19:23.680 perceived

01:19:24.040 as

01:19:24.420 alien

01:19:24.960 the

01:19:26.020 cities

01:19:26.420 are

01:19:26.620 where

01:19:26.800 you

01:19:26.980 find

01:19:27.420 this

01:19:27.860 where

01:19:28.860 the

01:19:29.060 elite

01:19:29.320 live

01:19:29.720 and

01:19:32.060 so that

01:19:34.760 if

01:19:35.180 the

01:19:35.520 cities

01:19:35.960 are

01:19:36.200 perceived

01:19:36.640 as

01:19:37.080 essentially

01:19:37.840 the

01:19:38.140 locus

01:19:38.500 of

01:19:38.680 the

01:19:38.820 problem

01:19:39.320 effectively

01:19:40.060 a

01:19:40.300 kind

01:19:40.500 of

01:19:40.600 occupied

01:19:41.100 territory

01:19:41.800 but

01:19:43.520 the

01:19:43.900 cities

01:19:44.200 are

01:19:44.620 intrinsically

01:19:45.780 unstable

01:19:46.420 city

01:19:48.920 most

01:19:49.780 basic

01:19:51.840 and

01:19:52.380 functional

01:19:52.760 definition

01:19:53.920 of a

01:19:54.520 city

01:19:54.720 is a

01:19:55.080 community

01:19:55.420 which is

01:19:55.900 unable

01:19:56.200 to feed

01:19:56.680 itself

01:19:57.060 with

01:19:57.700 its

01:19:57.860 own

01:19:58.140 resources

01:19:59.080 it

01:19:59.340 has

01:19:59.520 to

01:19:59.700 draw

01:20:00.300 them

01:20:00.500 in

01:20:00.720 from

01:20:01.040 outside

01:20:02.560 so if

01:20:03.640 you think

01:20:03.880 of a

01:20:04.160 city

01:20:04.380 in that

01:20:04.820 sense

01:20:05.220 then

01:20:05.740 cities

01:20:06.620 are

01:20:06.880 very

01:20:07.400 vulnerable

01:20:08.120 to

01:20:08.920 rejection

01:20:09.560 by their

01:20:10.180 hinterland

01:20:10.780 because

01:20:12.300 the

01:20:12.640 hinterland

01:20:13.180 can

01:20:14.280 cut

01:20:15.120 them 1.00

01:20:15.320 off

01:20:15.580 this

01:20:16.660 has

01:20:16.920 probably

01:20:17.500 always

01:20:18.100 been

01:20:18.700 the

01:20:18.900 case

01:20:19.340 but

01:20:19.720 people

01:20:20.500 in

01:20:20.860 urban

01:20:21.440 studies

01:20:22.040 now

01:20:22.600 for

01:20:22.900 many

01:20:23.400 years

01:20:23.700 going

01:20:23.920 back

01:20:24.120 at least

01:20:24.440 50

01:20:24.800 years

01:20:25.120 have

01:20:25.320 been

01:20:25.600 saying

01:20:26.380 that

01:20:26.600 there

01:20:26.740 is

01:20:26.880 something

01:20:27.220 actually

01:20:27.760 peculiar

01:20:28.380 about

01:20:28.800 the

01:20:29.020 modern

01:20:29.380 city

01:20:29.820 the

01:20:30.280 city

01:20:30.560 of

01:20:30.780 the

01:20:30.940 last

01:20:31.240 hundred

01:20:31.520 years

01:20:32.060 given

01:20:32.620 its

01:20:32.920 size

01:20:33.560 and

01:20:34.140 its

01:20:34.320 complexity

01:20:34.900 that

01:20:35.640 makes

01:20:35.920 it

01:20:36.100 much

01:20:37.560 more

01:20:37.920 vulnerable

01:20:38.480 than

01:20:38.800 it

01:20:38.960 had

01:20:39.200 been

01:20:39.540 even

01:20:40.660 in

01:20:41.600 the

01:20:41.720 past

01:20:42.080 because

01:20:44.060 the

01:20:44.600 cities

01:20:44.800 are

01:20:44.960 not

01:20:45.100 just

01:20:45.300 pulling

01:20:45.560 in

01:20:45.780 food

01:20:46.080 they're

01:20:46.300 pulling

01:20:46.500 in

01:20:46.680 water

01:20:47.020 they're

01:20:47.320 putting

01:20:47.580 in

01:20:47.800 energy

01:20:48.280 they're

01:20:48.560 pulling

01:20:48.800 in

01:20:49.220 all

01:20:50.800 of the

01:20:51.160 goods

01:20:51.500 and

01:20:51.840 materials

01:20:52.360 that

01:20:52.840 effectively

01:20:53.620 make

01:20:54.160 a city

01:20:54.680 work

01:20:55.020 make it

01:20:55.480 function

01:20:55.940 and

01:20:59.000 moreover

01:21:00.940 you add

01:21:01.800 on top

01:21:02.280 of that

01:21:02.720 dynamic

01:21:04.260 a social

01:21:04.820 dimension

01:21:05.440 which is

01:21:07.180 that the

01:21:07.580 cities

01:21:07.960 exist in

01:21:09.360 this kind

01:21:09.820 of

01:21:10.700 balancing

01:21:12.180 act

01:21:12.720 we're

01:21:13.040 not

01:21:13.200 designed

01:21:13.580 to

01:21:14.200 live

01:21:14.500 piled

01:21:16.260 on top

01:21:16.620 of

01:21:16.780 each

01:21:17.000 other

01:21:17.260 in

01:21:19.640 this

01:21:19.880 way

01:21:20.160 but

01:21:20.580 we're

01:21:20.920 able

01:21:21.140 to

01:21:21.420 do

01:21:21.780 it

01:21:21.980 because

01:21:22.520 of

01:21:23.260 various

01:21:23.800 long

01:21:24.520 standing

01:21:24.880 conventions

01:21:25.500 and

01:21:26.000 ways

01:21:26.900 of

01:21:27.100 handling

01:21:27.600 the

01:21:27.980 urban

01:21:28.280 condition

01:21:28.800 but

01:21:29.540 the

01:21:29.960 basic

01:21:30.200 point

01:21:30.520 I'm

01:21:30.680 trying

01:21:30.880 to

01:21:31.040 make

01:21:31.280 here

01:21:31.540 is

01:21:31.700 that

01:21:31.880 even

01:21:32.060 under

01:21:32.360 natural

01:21:32.880 circumstances

01:21:33.680 the

01:21:33.980 urban

01:21:34.680 condition

01:21:35.240 is a

01:21:35.640 balancing

01:21:36.040 act

01:21:36.500 and

01:21:37.820 in

01:21:38.480 the

01:21:38.780 early

01:21:39.300 part

01:21:40.080 of

01:21:40.220 the

01:21:40.360 20th

01:21:40.920 21st

01:21:41.840 century

01:21:42.360 given

01:21:42.800 the

01:21:43.140 size

01:21:43.580 and

01:21:43.780 the

01:21:43.940 complexity

01:21:44.440 of

01:21:44.860 cities

01:21:45.240 both

01:21:45.760 materially

01:21:46.720 and

01:21:47.060 socially

01:21:47.480 that

01:21:48.520 balancing

01:21:49.280 act

01:21:49.640 is

01:21:49.860 quite

01:21:50.740 perilous

01:21:51.480 and

01:21:51.680 vulnerable

01:21:52.140 to

01:21:53.100 disruption

01:21:54.140 that

01:21:55.080 in

01:21:55.260 fact

01:21:55.480 is

01:21:55.700 the

01:21:55.880 technical

01:21:56.240 term

01:21:56.620 for

01:21:56.840 the

01:21:56.980 technique

01:21:57.380 I'm

01:21:57.600 about

01:21:57.880 to

01:21:58.620 describe

01:21:59.060 which

01:21:59.300 is

01:21:59.460 system

01:21:59.840 disruption

01:22:00.420 is

01:22:00.800 an

01:22:00.960 idea

01:22:01.320 most

01:22:02.220 written

01:22:02.840 about

01:22:03.180 most

01:22:03.580 capably

01:22:05.380 by an

01:22:05.860 American

01:22:06.220 analyst

01:22:06.640 named

01:22:06.920 John

01:22:07.440 Robb

01:22:08.300 runs

01:22:08.560 a

01:22:08.680 website

01:22:08.980 called

01:22:09.360 Global

01:22:09.740 Gorillas

01:22:10.200 very

01:22:10.540 worthwhile

01:22:11.080 looking

01:22:11.940 at

01:22:12.220 and

01:22:13.080 wrote

01:22:13.260 a

01:22:13.400 book

01:22:13.620 in

01:22:14.340 the

01:22:14.460 early

01:22:14.660 2000s

01:22:15.320 called

01:22:15.480 Brave

01:22:15.780 New

01:22:16.000 War

01:22:16.280 exploring

01:22:17.320 this

01:22:17.760 topic

01:22:18.460 not

01:22:19.020 it

01:22:19.200 must

01:22:19.400 be

01:22:19.560 said

01:22:19.760 primarily

01:22:20.200 in

01:22:20.500 western

01:22:20.760 countries

01:22:21.240 but

01:22:21.440 in

01:22:21.600 elsewhere

01:22:22.200 but

01:22:22.460 his

01:22:22.620 logic

01:22:23.000 is

01:22:23.300 still

01:22:24.180 very

01:22:24.420 valid

01:22:24.760 so

01:22:25.660 system

01:22:26.120 disruption

01:22:26.640 as

01:22:27.000 a

01:22:27.160 technique

01:22:27.700 focuses

01:22:28.700 on

01:22:29.380 the

01:22:30.220 attack

01:22:31.020 upon

01:22:31.540 infrastructure

01:22:33.060 effectively

01:22:33.820 with

01:22:34.580 the view

01:22:35.040 to

01:22:35.340 causing

01:22:36.040 cascading

01:22:38.780 effect

01:22:39.200 within

01:22:39.560 that

01:22:39.860 society

01:22:40.380 which

01:22:40.720 then

01:22:41.760 unbalance

01:22:42.820 this

01:22:43.940 already

01:22:44.540 kind of

01:22:45.340 fairly

01:22:45.760 unbalanced

01:22:47.440 system

01:22:48.040 causing

01:22:48.800 it to

01:22:49.300 descend

01:22:49.660 into

01:22:49.980 chaos

01:22:50.420 by chaos

01:22:51.520 what I

01:22:51.880 mean

01:22:52.120 for a

01:22:52.620 London

01:22:52.840 listener

01:22:53.300 or any

01:22:53.760 British

01:22:54.060 listener

01:22:54.500 think

01:22:54.960 the

01:22:55.600 2011

01:22:56.140 London

01:22:56.700 riots

01:22:57.160 right

01:22:57.700 if you

01:22:58.120 were in

01:22:58.580 London

01:22:58.860 at the

01:22:59.240 time

01:22:59.580 you

01:22:59.840 didn't

01:23:00.000 basically

01:23:00.600 a week

01:23:01.000 long

01:23:01.260 period

01:23:01.660 where

01:23:01.880 most

01:23:02.100 normal

01:23:02.380 people

01:23:02.720 were

01:23:03.020 afraid

01:23:03.460 to

01:23:03.640 go

01:23:03.780 onto

01:23:04.000 the

01:23:04.200 streets

01:23:04.540 because

01:23:08.240 on any

01:23:09.520 given

01:23:09.800 night

01:23:10.200 and

01:23:10.420 actually

01:23:10.760 to

01:23:11.140 some

01:23:11.380 degree

01:23:11.700 also

01:23:12.040 in

01:23:12.340 the

01:23:12.500 daytime

01:23:12.940 but

01:23:13.380 especially

01:23:13.820 at

01:23:14.080 night

01:23:14.340 there

01:23:15.900 were

01:23:16.040 2,000 to

01:23:16.340 3,000

01:23:16.920 guys on

01:23:18.240 the street

01:23:18.580 causing

01:23:19.360 mayhem

01:23:20.000 of those

01:23:20.700 2,000 to

01:23:21.040 3,000

01:23:21.680 maybe

01:23:22.280 2,000 to

01:23:23.320 300

01:23:23.880 were seriously

01:23:25.020 violent

01:23:25.900 people

01:23:26.360 most were

01:23:27.320 just

01:23:27.600 opportunists

01:23:28.940 right

01:23:29.240 that

01:23:30.180 completely

01:23:30.660 overstretched

01:23:31.360 almost

01:23:31.720 completely

01:23:32.220 overstretched

01:23:32.940 the

01:23:33.980 ability

01:23:35.280 of the

01:23:35.640 government

01:23:35.900 it took

01:23:36.900 a week

01:23:37.480 to shut 0.69

01:23:37.960 this

01:23:38.120 down

01:23:38.340 that

01:23:39.820 was

01:23:40.000 at a

01:23:40.280 point

01:23:40.520 where

01:23:40.900 the

01:23:41.080 British

01:23:41.260 police

01:23:41.680 were

01:23:42.600 stronger

01:23:43.100 than

01:23:43.360 they

01:23:43.520 are

01:23:43.680 today

01:23:44.060 and

01:23:45.700 the

01:23:46.280 kind

01:23:46.560 of

01:23:47.020 chaos

01:23:48.820 that

01:23:49.260 I'm

01:23:49.880 suggesting

01:23:50.480 is going

01:23:51.180 to occur

01:23:51.820 when you

01:23:52.600 switch

01:23:52.840 off the

01:23:53.200 gas

01:23:53.600 and

01:23:54.000 electricity

01:23:54.980 to

01:23:56.300 London

01:23:57.260 not just

01:23:58.560 once

01:23:59.000 but

01:23:59.480 every

01:24:00.120 couple

01:24:00.420 of

01:24:00.600 weeks

01:24:00.920 through

01:24:01.320 a

01:24:01.480 winter

01:24:01.820 you're

01:24:02.820 going

01:24:02.940 to

01:24:03.060 see

01:24:03.260 25

01:24:03.920 35

01:24:04.220 thousand

01:24:04.800 people

01:24:05.220 on

01:24:05.520 the

01:24:06.260 street

01:24:06.680 and

01:24:07.700 moreover

01:24:08.300 a

01:24:09.420 substantial

01:24:09.900 proportion

01:24:10.460 of

01:24:11.040 these

01:24:11.240 people

01:24:11.560 now

01:24:11.880 are

01:24:12.100 actually

01:24:12.480 young

01:24:14.120 and

01:24:14.460 just

01:24:14.740 naturally

01:24:15.280 angry

01:24:16.460 and up

01:24:16.880 for a

01:24:17.180 fight

01:24:17.420 that

01:24:18.540 then

01:24:18.980 is

01:24:19.160 going

01:24:19.360 to

01:24:19.580 cause

01:24:19.940 all

01:24:20.180 kinds

01:24:20.520 of

01:24:21.400 effects

01:24:21.800 for

01:24:22.080 one

01:24:22.320 thing

01:24:22.640 perfectly

01:24:23.200 obviously

01:24:23.720 it's

01:24:24.040 going

01:24:24.180 to

01:24:24.300 make

01:24:24.520 the

01:24:24.720 place

01:24:24.960 completely

01:24:25.420 economically

01:24:26.060 unviable

01:24:26.820 okay

01:24:27.900 before we

01:24:29.300 head on

01:24:29.660 over to

01:24:30.100 questions

01:24:30.560 from our

01:24:31.060 audience

01:24:31.660 I'm going

01:24:32.420 to have

01:24:32.600 one more

01:24:32.960 go at

01:24:33.260 disagreeing

01:24:33.760 with you

01:24:34.020 from a

01:24:34.380 naive

01:24:34.740 and positive

01:24:35.440 and optimistic

01:24:36.160 perspective

01:24:36.900 because I

01:24:38.240 come back

01:24:38.640 to this

01:24:38.980 Trump

01:24:39.300 and reform

01:24:39.880 point

01:24:40.300 which is

01:24:41.400 what I

01:24:42.660 see with

01:24:43.080 Trump's

01:24:43.540 second term

01:24:44.360 so far

01:24:45.400 we don't

01:24:45.660 know how

01:24:45.960 he's going

01:24:46.220 to wrap

01:24:46.480 up but

01:24:46.800 effectively

01:24:47.280 he is

01:24:48.200 addressing

01:24:48.640 many many

01:24:49.200 of the

01:24:49.500 concerns

01:24:49.860 that people

01:24:50.240 had

01:24:50.580 and sometimes

01:24:51.160 almost finding

01:24:52.600 out where

01:24:53.140 actually the

01:24:53.940 consensus

01:24:54.380 in America

01:24:54.980 is on

01:24:55.380 some issues

01:24:55.880 for example

01:24:56.340 on illegal

01:24:56.800 immigration

01:24:57.340 he kind

01:24:58.360 of went

01:24:59.020 too far

01:24:59.600 in the

01:24:59.820 perception

01:25:00.120 of many

01:25:00.540 Americans

01:25:01.000 with like

01:25:01.760 just randomly

01:25:02.600 turning up

01:25:03.200 to workplaces

01:25:03.940 and rounding

01:25:04.620 people up

01:25:05.280 there is no

01:25:06.440 appetite

01:25:06.920 across American

01:25:08.500 society for

01:25:09.240 that but

01:25:09.900 they are

01:25:10.300 nonetheless

01:25:10.560 dealing with

01:25:11.420 the problem

01:25:11.760 of legal

01:25:12.180 immigration

01:25:12.580 pretty full

01:25:13.620 on

01:25:14.040 right

01:25:14.300 you saw

01:25:16.620 prior to

01:25:17.620 Brexit

01:25:17.960 there was

01:25:18.380 a massive

01:25:18.820 build up

01:25:19.280 of anti-immigration

01:25:20.300 sentiment

01:25:20.900 the moment

01:25:21.600 Brexit

01:25:21.940 happened

01:25:22.320 it actually

01:25:22.760 tailed off

01:25:23.280 until people

01:25:23.800 realized

01:25:24.300 nothing

01:25:24.620 changed

01:25:25.080 and then

01:25:25.520 concerns

01:25:26.180 about

01:25:26.420 immigration

01:25:26.840 rose

01:25:27.160 again

01:25:27.480 so if

01:25:28.160 you get

01:25:28.720 a

01:25:29.780 prime

01:25:31.280 minister

01:25:31.640 and a

01:25:32.580 reformer

01:25:33.220 majority

01:25:33.720 and a

01:25:34.080 significant

01:25:34.480 majority

01:25:34.920 I mean we

01:25:35.260 had Zia

01:25:35.620 Youssef on

01:25:36.080 the show

01:25:36.320 a few weeks

01:25:36.740 ago talking

01:25:37.260 about the

01:25:37.660 fact they

01:25:37.980 would need

01:25:38.480 a significant

01:25:39.360 majority

01:25:39.820 and I

01:25:40.120 agree with

01:25:40.500 that let's

01:25:40.900 say that

01:25:41.160 happens

01:25:41.580 they are

01:25:42.880 in a

01:25:43.140 position

01:25:43.460 yes the

01:25:44.220 civil service

01:25:44.840 will try

01:25:45.260 and subvert

01:25:45.820 and yes

01:25:46.320 and the

01:25:47.280 media will 0.73

01:25:47.740 go apeshit

01:25:48.400 and all 0.99

01:25:48.720 of that

01:25:49.040 but if

01:25:49.720 they actually

01:25:50.200 see that

01:25:51.300 through

01:25:51.580 they close

01:25:52.140 the border

01:25:52.640 they deal

01:25:53.900 with illegal

01:25:54.480 immigration

01:25:54.980 they deal

01:25:55.600 with the

01:25:55.900 boats

01:25:56.220 they institute

01:25:57.960 perfectly reasonable

01:25:59.160 and rational

01:25:59.620 policies on

01:26:00.260 mass immigration

01:26:00.960 such as we

01:26:01.620 want people

01:26:02.140 to come

01:26:02.540 but they've

01:26:02.920 got to be

01:26:03.440 qualified

01:26:03.860 they've got to

01:26:04.440 speak the

01:26:04.760 language

01:26:05.000 they've got to

01:26:05.480 do this

01:26:05.780 they've got to

01:26:06.160 do that

01:26:06.480 I'm pretty

01:26:08.300 persuaded that

01:26:09.000 in that situation

01:26:09.700 the vast majority

01:26:10.420 of people will

01:26:11.040 just say

01:26:11.420 thank god

01:26:12.260 finally we've got

01:26:13.020 a government

01:26:13.400 that's trying

01:26:13.840 to deal with

01:26:14.340 these things

01:26:14.880 look things

01:26:15.780 may not be

01:26:16.580 exactly the way

01:26:17.600 I want it

01:26:18.160 but you know

01:26:18.960 they're scrapping

01:26:19.520 net zero

01:26:19.960 they're doing this

01:26:20.520 they're doing that

01:26:21.140 we kind of

01:26:22.380 we got what

01:26:22.920 we voted

01:26:23.320 for

01:26:23.740 and that

01:26:25.420 sentiment

01:26:25.880 that you're

01:26:26.360 talking about

01:26:26.880 building up

01:26:27.400 will be

01:26:27.820 channeled

01:26:28.300 into that

01:26:28.860 and you know

01:26:30.440 my big concern

01:26:31.540 is how effectively

01:26:32.600 they can deliver

01:26:33.400 the things

01:26:33.800 they're promising

01:26:34.280 that that is

01:26:34.880 the genuine

01:26:35.320 concern

01:26:35.780 particularly on

01:26:36.400 things like

01:26:37.020 benefits

01:26:38.120 and things

01:26:39.060 like that

01:26:39.560 but overall

01:26:40.640 wouldn't you

01:26:42.040 say that

01:26:42.600 a democratically

01:26:43.620 elected

01:26:44.100 very strong

01:26:44.920 mandate

01:26:45.480 party of

01:26:47.260 that nature

01:26:47.840 would address

01:26:48.820 many of the

01:26:49.300 concerns that

01:26:49.820 people inherently

01:26:50.540 feel

01:26:50.980 and therefore

01:26:52.160 make people

01:26:52.780 feel like

01:26:53.200 their voice

01:26:53.540 has been heard

01:26:54.260 the government

01:26:54.760 does have

01:26:55.340 legitimacy

01:26:55.840 and they are

01:26:57.060 attempting to

01:26:57.880 deliver some

01:26:58.420 of the things

01:26:58.880 that they want

01:26:59.560 well

01:27:01.180 I would say

01:27:04.060 I've been

01:27:06.740 very gloomy

01:27:07.320 for the last

01:27:07.900 hour

01:27:09.660 or 70 minutes

01:27:10.680 or so

01:27:11.780 so

01:27:12.360 power to your

01:27:13.560 bow

01:27:14.080 I hope you're

01:27:16.380 right

01:27:16.580 why am I not

01:27:18.160 right

01:27:18.420 that's what I'm

01:27:19.000 asking you

01:27:19.400 okay

01:27:19.760 because I

01:27:21.760 don't think

01:27:22.220 well for the

01:27:24.360 reasons I've

01:27:24.860 already suggested

01:27:25.640 I think

01:27:26.140 they won't be

01:27:29.140 able to

01:27:29.420 deliver

01:27:29.700 they won't

01:27:30.300 be able

01:27:30.640 to deliver

01:27:32.100 but

01:27:32.940 for another

01:27:35.620 reason

01:27:36.080 and

01:27:37.940 that is

01:27:39.140 one

01:27:40.560 that is

01:27:42.500 a bit

01:27:42.820 hard to

01:27:43.440 get

01:27:43.640 one's head

01:27:44.620 round

01:27:45.000 but

01:27:45.400 it's

01:27:46.620 might call

01:27:48.080 it

01:27:48.320 the peril

01:27:50.060 of the

01:27:50.540 reformer

01:27:51.280 the peril

01:27:52.380 of the

01:27:52.700 reformer

01:27:53.380 is best

01:27:55.040 understood

01:27:55.480 if you look

01:27:56.080 at a figure

01:27:56.880 like

01:27:57.340 Mikhail Gorbachev

01:27:58.980 right

01:28:01.080 who

01:28:01.460 we all know

01:28:02.900 actually it's

01:28:04.040 quite a long

01:28:04.400 time ago now

01:28:05.000 so maybe not

01:28:05.540 everybody knows

01:28:06.240 but Mikhail Gorbachev

01:28:07.500 was the last

01:28:08.160 general secretary

01:28:09.020 of the

01:28:09.540 communist party

01:28:10.500 of the

01:28:10.780 Soviet Union

01:28:11.380 and a great

01:28:12.680 reformer

01:28:13.660 brought in

01:28:14.940 not elected

01:28:15.600 but comes

01:28:16.140 to power

01:28:17.060 with the

01:28:18.600 intent to

01:28:19.480 reform

01:28:20.440 Soviet society

01:28:21.560 which had

01:28:22.040 become

01:28:22.460 both economically

01:28:23.720 and socially

01:28:25.740 and just

01:28:26.500 generally

01:28:27.020 sclerotic

01:28:27.700 and non-functioning

01:28:29.240 and what

01:28:32.400 was his

01:28:33.200 fate

01:28:33.480 the short

01:28:35.740 answer is

01:28:36.400 the short

01:28:37.120 answer is

01:28:37.780 the country

01:28:38.220 fell apart

01:28:39.200 he was

01:28:39.720 removed by

01:28:40.520 the August

01:28:41.080 the August

01:28:41.800 coup

01:28:42.080 or in fact

01:28:42.640 the August

01:28:43.840 coup

01:28:44.120 itself

01:28:44.640 failed

01:28:46.060 and he

01:28:46.500 shortly

01:28:48.020 came back

01:28:49.400 into power

01:28:49.980 but the

01:28:51.340 game was

01:28:51.740 over

01:28:52.040 at that

01:28:52.880 point

01:28:53.200 the peril

01:28:54.200 of the

01:28:54.460 reformer

01:28:55.060 is that

01:28:56.020 you

01:28:56.880 essentially

01:28:59.480 you acknowledge

01:29:00.140 the problem

01:29:00.800 in a way

01:29:02.000 so you say

01:29:02.560 dear

01:29:02.900 Britain

01:29:05.720 dear citizen

01:29:06.640 yes

01:29:07.340 we're very

01:29:08.180 sorry

01:29:08.460 we made

01:29:08.960 this mistake

01:29:09.580 no

01:29:09.920 they made

01:29:10.540 this mistake

01:29:11.060 and we're

01:29:11.400 here to

01:29:11.620 fix it

01:29:12.060 yes

01:29:13.080 this mistake

01:29:13.720 was made

01:29:14.260 by other

01:29:15.900 people

01:29:16.380 by another

01:29:17.040 prime minister

01:29:17.760 another

01:29:18.180 immigration

01:29:18.740 minister

01:29:19.240 these mistakes

01:29:21.420 were made

01:29:21.960 in our

01:29:22.900 country

01:29:23.340 they are

01:29:23.740 very severe

01:29:24.480 they are

01:29:25.760 in fact

01:29:26.080 so severe

01:29:26.760 that we've

01:29:27.320 arrived

01:29:27.780 to do

01:29:28.360 this

01:29:28.580 quite

01:29:28.920 radical

01:29:29.340 thing

01:29:29.700 now

01:29:32.420 people

01:29:32.740 want

01:29:33.040 change

01:29:33.820 and you

01:29:34.400 can't

01:29:34.760 change

01:29:35.020 fast

01:29:35.400 enough

01:29:35.640 to

01:29:35.860 satisfy

01:29:36.280 them

01:29:36.580 and

01:29:37.360 this

01:29:37.820 too

01:29:38.220 can be

01:29:40.820 a bit

01:29:41.060 paradoxical

01:29:42.020 but the

01:29:42.480 peril of the

01:29:43.060 reformer

01:29:43.580 is that

01:29:43.980 when you

01:29:44.420 acknowledge

01:29:45.080 and you

01:29:45.440 begin to

01:29:46.060 try to

01:29:48.820 reform

01:29:49.240 that people's

01:29:50.560 expectations

01:29:51.320 again

01:29:51.960 rise

01:29:54.640 more

01:29:55.320 quickly

01:29:55.800 than your

01:29:56.420 ability

01:29:56.820 to

01:29:57.140 deliver

01:29:58.040 on

01:29:58.320 them

01:29:58.540 which in

01:30:01.300 the case

01:30:01.620 of

01:30:01.780 Gorbachev

01:30:02.320 terminates

01:30:03.320 didn't quite

01:30:04.560 terminate

01:30:05.120 but terminated

01:30:06.100 his career

01:30:07.640 as a

01:30:07.960 political

01:30:08.220 figure

01:30:08.640 if not

01:30:09.020 as an

01:30:09.700 individual

01:30:10.180 which in

01:30:11.960 fact was

01:30:12.480 also part

01:30:13.580 of the

01:30:13.880 kind of

01:30:14.140 leitmotif

01:30:14.840 of the

01:30:15.360 lead up

01:30:16.000 to the

01:30:17.500 Russian

01:30:18.180 revolution

01:30:18.720 the first

01:30:19.200 revolution

01:30:19.720 of 1917

01:30:20.680 which

01:30:22.080 occurred

01:30:22.540 which

01:30:25.300 had been

01:30:25.540 building

01:30:25.940 for a

01:30:26.360 long

01:30:26.540 time

01:30:26.860 you had

01:30:27.240 the

01:30:27.480 Russian

01:30:28.140 state

01:30:28.620 essentially

01:30:29.960 acknowledging

01:30:30.580 the

01:30:30.840 problem

01:30:31.120 attempting

01:30:31.640 to

01:30:31.940 reform

01:30:32.340 economically

01:30:33.420 up to

01:30:34.580 the

01:30:34.800 first

01:30:35.240 world

01:30:36.360 war

01:30:36.680 it was

01:30:37.300 improving

01:30:39.380 arguably

01:30:41.140 politically

01:30:41.660 also

01:30:42.120 but

01:30:43.580 people's

01:30:44.640 expectations

01:30:45.300 once

01:30:47.400 acknowledged

01:30:47.920 often

01:30:48.900 skyrocket

01:30:49.840 and again

01:30:51.500 you get

01:30:52.040 to this

01:30:52.400 problem

01:30:52.860 of the

01:30:53.600 inability

01:30:54.740 of the

01:30:55.380 political

01:30:55.680 system

01:30:56.240 to keep

01:30:57.160 pace

01:30:57.680 with

01:30:58.280 the

01:30:59.140 mood

01:30:59.720 of the

01:31:00.180 population

01:31:01.000 fundamentally

01:31:02.220 I think

01:31:02.780 your argument

01:31:03.440 is one

01:31:04.360 that says

01:31:05.860 the system

01:31:07.160 has the

01:31:07.920 ability

01:31:08.340 to cure

01:31:08.940 itself

01:31:09.420 still

01:31:09.980 there is

01:31:10.780 there is

01:31:11.740 still this

01:31:12.420 potential

01:31:12.960 in this

01:31:14.100 in this

01:31:14.980 it depends

01:31:17.520 on what you

01:31:18.000 mean by the

01:31:18.600 system

01:31:18.920 because I

01:31:19.580 would regard

01:31:20.080 both Trump

01:31:20.800 and Farage

01:31:21.740 and reform

01:31:22.420 as not

01:31:23.900 part of

01:31:24.520 the elite

01:31:24.860 even though

01:31:25.340 they are

01:31:25.860 the people

01:31:26.760 at the

01:31:27.060 top are

01:31:27.520 always

01:31:27.800 part

01:31:28.140 it is

01:31:28.600 inevitable

01:31:29.020 right

01:31:29.400 but the

01:31:30.480 movement

01:31:30.900 behind them

01:31:31.680 is fundamentally

01:31:32.540 an anti-elite

01:31:34.000 movement

01:31:34.480 and therefore

01:31:35.420 they have

01:31:35.920 the legitimacy

01:31:36.580 as being

01:31:37.240 seen as

01:31:37.720 the outsider

01:31:38.540 coming in

01:31:39.280 to fix

01:31:39.680 a problem

01:31:40.140 created

01:31:40.680 by that

01:31:41.460 elite

01:31:41.880 over there

01:31:42.540 who are

01:31:42.820 wrong

01:31:43.040 and evil

01:31:43.440 and bad

01:31:44.000 okay

01:31:44.320 I guess

01:31:46.840 we'll see

01:31:47.160 that's my

01:31:47.300 argument

01:31:47.500 I understand

01:31:50.720 it

01:31:51.160 and I hope

01:31:53.880 you're

01:31:54.180 correct

01:31:55.000 so do I

01:31:55.860 yeah

01:31:57.860 the things

01:31:58.880 by the way

01:31:59.400 I think

01:31:59.700 it's important

01:32:00.160 to restate

01:32:00.760 what we said

01:32:01.200 at the beginning

01:32:01.720 which is

01:32:02.100 I know

01:32:02.680 that in

01:32:03.120 describing

01:32:03.700 many of

01:32:04.160 the terrible

01:32:04.560 potential

01:32:05.020 outcomes

01:32:05.580 there was

01:32:06.160 no part

01:32:06.580 of you

01:32:06.760 that wishes

01:32:07.100 any of

01:32:07.500 that to

01:32:07.800 manifest

01:32:08.300 and for

01:32:09.060 that to

01:32:09.360 happen

01:32:09.520 I live

01:32:10.700 in this

01:32:11.100 country

01:32:11.440 I have

01:32:11.860 young adult

01:32:13.840 children

01:32:15.100 trying to

01:32:15.740 make their

01:32:17.500 way

01:32:17.820 in the

01:32:18.600 world

01:32:18.780 this is

01:32:19.340 and it

01:32:22.940 feels

01:32:23.240 pretty bad

01:32:24.060 to hand

01:32:24.500 over the

01:32:24.940 proverbial 1.00

01:32:25.520 shit 1.00

01:32:26.520 sandwich 0.99

01:32:26.940 so I'm

01:32:30.320 not calling

01:32:30.720 for it

01:32:32.680 I'm just

01:32:33.140 trying to be

01:32:33.760 realistic

01:32:35.160 realistic

01:32:35.360 about what

01:32:36.200 is

01:32:36.760 there

01:32:37.620 and

01:32:40.880 explain to

01:32:42.500 people

01:32:43.000 explain to

01:32:45.740 people

01:32:46.200 many of

01:32:47.820 whom are

01:32:48.320 in fact

01:32:48.820 listening now

01:32:50.680 and saying

01:32:51.240 I've been

01:32:51.740 thinking this

01:32:52.220 for ages

01:32:52.620 well duh

01:32:53.200 like who

01:32:53.640 is this

01:32:54.000 guy

01:32:54.340 who is

01:32:54.900 this

01:32:55.080 professor

01:32:55.440 telling me

01:32:56.100 stuff

01:32:56.420 that

01:32:57.020 you know

01:32:57.540 I've

01:32:58.120 known

01:32:58.360 for ages

01:32:59.900 and I

01:33:00.720 do wish

01:33:01.180 to address

01:33:01.620 those people

01:33:02.180 and say

01:33:02.560 no

01:33:02.840 you're

01:33:03.720 right

01:33:04.500 I acknowledge

01:33:05.380 that

01:33:05.760 you saw it

01:33:07.240 you're not

01:33:07.680 crazy

01:33:08.120 amongst others 0.54

01:33:09.200 I wish to

01:33:10.360 address

01:33:11.540 however

01:33:12.080 are people

01:33:13.120 many people

01:33:15.400 many

01:33:16.420 no doubt

01:33:17.840 cleverer than

01:33:18.580 myself

01:33:19.000 who

01:33:19.780 might

01:33:21.800 conceive

01:33:23.160 other ways

01:33:25.580 out

01:33:25.840 other avenues

01:33:27.400 to the

01:33:28.080 future

01:33:28.500 besides

01:33:29.280 the one

01:33:30.420 that

01:33:30.940 I've

01:33:31.660 painted

01:33:33.400 this

01:33:34.900 might

01:33:35.120 undoubtedly

01:33:36.520 is a

01:33:37.100 limitation

01:33:37.600 of my

01:33:38.300 point

01:33:39.240 of view

01:33:40.320 I'm a war

01:33:40.760 studies

01:33:41.100 professor

01:33:41.540 after all

01:33:42.180 I probably

01:33:42.660 do have

01:33:44.920 a

01:33:45.440 kind of

01:33:45.980 baseline

01:33:46.340 tendency

01:33:47.000 to

01:33:49.500 the

01:33:49.640 conflictual

01:33:54.240 so I

01:33:54.820 really do

01:33:55.420 hope

01:33:55.800 that

01:33:56.100 we

01:33:56.480 avoid

01:33:59.200 this

01:33:59.680 in all

01:34:01.460 honesty

01:34:01.920 and

01:34:02.780 in best

01:34:03.820 conscience

01:34:04.380 I can't

01:34:05.860 claim

01:34:06.380 that there

01:34:07.080 is very

01:34:07.740 obvious

01:34:08.160 potential

01:34:08.700 for it

01:34:09.700 I understand

01:34:10.240 the reason

01:34:10.800 I'm

01:34:11.080 disagreeing

01:34:11.580 with you

01:34:11.860 is twofold

01:34:12.320 number one

01:34:12.920 is I

01:34:13.520 believe in

01:34:14.520 probabilities

01:34:15.100 of things

01:34:15.680 rather than

01:34:16.320 inevitable

01:34:16.860 outcomes

01:34:17.560 and I'm

01:34:18.900 on record

01:34:19.240 as saying

01:34:19.700 on the

01:34:20.800 current

01:34:21.060 trajectory

01:34:21.500 we're

01:34:21.740 heading

01:34:21.940 in the

01:34:22.200 direction

01:34:22.520 you

01:34:22.720 described

01:34:23.060 but there's

01:34:23.380 no question

01:34:23.840 about that

01:34:24.340 and that's

01:34:25.080 why I think

01:34:25.880 millions of

01:34:26.420 people now

01:34:26.960 are aware

01:34:27.580 of the

01:34:27.960 severity

01:34:28.300 of the

01:34:28.620 situation

01:34:29.180 but for

01:34:30.820 the reasons

01:34:31.220 I think

01:34:31.700 that I

01:34:32.120 don't need

01:34:32.440 to restate

01:34:32.900 that I've

01:34:33.120 already

01:34:33.340 outlined

01:34:33.640 I think

01:34:34.000 there's

01:34:34.300 also the

01:34:34.760 possibility

01:34:35.320 that that

01:34:36.360 energy

01:34:36.740 can be

01:34:37.200 rightly

01:34:37.500 channeled

01:34:37.980 through the

01:34:38.280 democratic

01:34:38.720 process

01:34:39.240 into a

01:34:39.820 vehicle

01:34:40.220 that is

01:34:40.980 genuinely

01:34:41.400 perceived

01:34:41.860 as being

01:34:42.300 anti the

01:34:42.960 current

01:34:43.220 system

01:34:43.660 and willing

01:34:44.240 to attempt

01:34:44.900 to fix

01:34:45.440 it

01:34:45.700 and I

01:34:46.940 think that's

01:34:48.900 the one

01:34:49.320 that certainly

01:34:49.740 I would

01:34:50.140 push for

01:34:50.660 and I'm

01:34:51.160 sure you

01:34:51.420 would too

01:34:51.860 absolutely

01:34:52.520 I think

01:34:53.200 every

01:34:53.480 literally

01:34:54.700 I mean

01:34:55.820 there's a

01:34:56.280 lot riding

01:34:56.800 on that

01:34:57.920 hypothesis

01:34:58.520 yeah

01:34:58.860 I think

01:34:59.340 it's very

01:34:59.620 important

01:34:59.980 we're going

01:35:00.700 to head

01:35:00.920 out of the

01:35:01.300 substack

01:35:01.700 in a second 0.78

01:35:02.140 but before

01:35:02.640 we do

01:35:03.040 what's the

01:35:03.840 one thing

01:35:04.120 we're not

01:35:04.480 talking about

01:35:05.100 as a society

01:35:05.900 that we

01:35:06.200 really should

01:35:06.600 be

01:35:06.800 could you

01:35:07.100 make it

01:35:07.380 positive

01:35:07.760 I think

01:35:13.180 I can

01:35:13.620 I think

01:35:14.340 I can

01:35:14.760 I think

01:35:15.320 that

01:35:15.700 the

01:35:16.520 what we're

01:35:17.760 not talking

01:35:18.320 about

01:35:18.680 or I

01:35:20.140 haven't

01:35:20.500 been

01:35:20.680 talking

01:35:21.000 about

01:35:21.380 and

01:35:21.700 therefore

01:35:22.200 this

01:35:22.780 conversation

01:35:23.460 with me

01:35:24.140 has not

01:35:24.600 been

01:35:24.860 about

01:35:25.380 what's

01:35:26.640 the

01:35:26.960 what

01:35:27.940 happens

01:35:29.180 after

01:35:29.540 what kind

01:35:30.280 of country

01:35:30.760 do we

01:35:31.080 want to

01:35:31.460 be

01:35:31.720 there is

01:35:33.080 you know

01:35:33.700 yes

01:35:34.240 I do

01:35:35.340 believe

01:35:35.680 we are

01:35:36.020 headed

01:35:36.240 into a

01:35:36.920 period

01:35:37.200 of really

01:35:37.880 serious

01:35:38.360 turmoil

01:35:38.880 that will

01:35:39.400 be

01:35:39.600 painful

01:35:40.020 and

01:35:42.340 maybe

01:35:43.000 that's

01:35:43.380 necessary

01:35:43.880 in fact

01:35:44.500 but

01:35:46.180 it's not

01:35:46.880 going to

01:35:47.140 last

01:35:47.420 forever

01:35:47.780 and

01:35:48.440 what

01:35:49.260 kind

01:35:49.520 of

01:35:49.620 country

01:35:49.940 do we

01:35:50.280 want

01:35:50.500 to be

01:35:50.980 afterwards

01:35:52.260 there are

01:35:53.740 a range

01:35:54.200 of

01:35:54.680 potentials

01:35:56.020 for this

01:35:56.360 many of

01:35:57.020 them

01:35:57.260 are in

01:35:57.800 fact

01:35:58.040 rather

01:35:58.800 unpleasant

01:36:00.760 but not

01:36:02.020 all of

01:36:02.360 them

01:36:02.560 and I

01:36:03.520 think

01:36:03.840 that

01:36:05.120 some

01:36:06.480 time

01:36:06.900 spent

01:36:07.560 now

01:36:08.840 thinking

01:36:09.820 seriously

01:36:11.160 in a way

01:36:11.780 that probably

01:36:12.460 the country

01:36:13.040 hasn't really

01:36:13.720 done very

01:36:14.620 well since

01:36:15.220 1945

01:36:16.200 a little

01:36:17.920 bit earlier

01:36:18.520 about

01:36:18.980 what kind

01:36:20.820 of country

01:36:21.260 it wants

01:36:21.700 to be

01:36:22.180 would be

01:36:23.440 quite

01:36:23.680 useful

01:36:24.240 to talk

01:36:25.580 about

01:36:25.860 at least

01:36:26.480 then

01:36:26.860 we could

01:36:27.720 put a

01:36:28.780 positive

01:36:29.200 future

01:36:29.720 on

01:36:30.320 the end

01:36:32.140 of this

01:36:33.400 period

01:36:35.860 of

01:36:37.140 disruption

01:36:38.140 of normal

01:36:39.120 service

01:36:39.620 to

01:36:40.260 euphemise

01:36:42.660 so I'd

01:36:44.880 like to

01:36:45.160 talk about

01:36:45.600 that

01:36:45.920 I think

01:36:46.380 or I'd

01:36:46.640 like to

01:36:46.880 hear other

01:36:47.240 people

01:36:47.600 talk about

01:36:48.840 that and

01:36:49.240 contribute to

01:36:49.900 such a

01:36:50.240 conversation

01:36:50.760 David

01:36:52.980 thank you

01:36:53.540 for coming

01:36:53.840 on the

01:36:54.080 show

01:36:54.300 if you

01:36:54.860 want to

01:36:55.300 follow the

01:36:55.840 conversation

01:36:56.460 head over

01:36:57.520 to our

01:36:57.860 sub stack

01:36:58.420 looking at

01:37:00.500 Europe as

01:37:00.920 a whole

01:37:01.180 can

01:37:01.360 Professor

01:37:01.760 Betts

01:37:02.100 comment on

01:37:02.740 which nations

01:37:03.400 seem particularly

01:37:04.160 susceptible to

01:37:05.160 civil war

01:37:06.060 in the next

01:37:06.940 decades

01:37:07.520 am I right to

01:37:08.620 think France

01:37:09.200 is in an

01:37:10.020 even worse

01:37:10.820 position than

01:37:11.440 the UK

01:37:11.820 night

TRIGGERnometry - July 20, 2025

Are We Headed for Civil War？ - David Betz

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