TRIGGERnometry - DEBATE： Was Trump Right to Bomb Iran？

00:00:00.760 For him, he always said there are only two options, a diplomatic resolution to ensure no nukes or a war.

00:00:07.900 And Iran already proved that they're willing to give up their nuclear weapons.

00:00:11.440 This idea that they're hell-bent on destroying Israel with nukes is completely inconsistent with their behavior, despite what they chant.

00:00:19.400 Tucker used in that interview where he effectively caught out Ted Cruz not knowing some fairly basic facts.

00:00:26.900 The fact that he had no idea and is an advocate of regime change is what made that so relevant.

00:00:32.200 They don't fund Hamas and fund Hezbollah out of some benevolence or malevolence.

00:00:37.520 They fund it because they view it in their national self-interest.

00:00:41.400 But Iran isn't solely interested in self-defense. It's interested in destabilization.

00:00:47.220 But you agree that Israel was also funding Hamas, right? You know that Netanyahu and Israel were also funding Hamas?

00:00:52.220 How much money did they give to Hamas?

00:00:53.960 I don't know what the amount is.

00:00:56.900 The world was shocked when Israel and America attacked Iran.

00:01:01.480 Do you know who wasn't shocked? The people who watched Trigonometry.

00:01:04.860 So you think they're going to attack Iran?

00:01:07.080 Yes.

00:01:08.100 Yes, it's a question of when.

00:01:09.820 This side of the US election or after the US election?

00:01:12.280 How close are the Iranians to getting a nuclear weapon?

00:01:16.740 It's more a matter of months than years.

00:01:19.340 Months.

00:01:20.220 We are months away.

00:01:21.860 Unless something can be said or done that interrupts their obvious march towards it.

00:01:32.460 Iran is a very powerful and big country.

00:01:35.520 How does this end?

00:01:37.160 If you think that the head of the snake is Iran and you really can't solve this problem of the endless war,

00:01:44.820 you have to have America on the side.

00:01:46.340 No question about that.

00:01:47.580 The United States needs Israel because Israel is one of the top three wealthiest countries in the Asian subcontinent.

00:01:55.380 They have incredible trade and buying power for our weapon systems, our technology, our security interests, right?

00:02:01.580 There's lots of reasons why the United States wants and needs to continue being partnered with Israel.

00:02:07.180 The final prophet emerges once justice and equality has been achieved in the world.

00:02:15.280 And the thing that achieves this justice is that the last drop of blood of Israel falls.

00:02:23.280 So the end of Israel brings back the final prophet.

00:02:26.720 So they need to destroy Israel?

00:02:28.960 They need to destroy Israel.

00:02:29.760 Do you want to know what's happening and why?

00:02:33.000 Subscribe to Trigonometry today.

00:02:37.120 This interview was recorded hours before President Trump secured a ceasefire between Israel and Iran.

00:02:44.060 In many ways, that makes the conversation we had with Glenn Greenwald even more interesting.

00:02:49.820 Glenn Greenwald, welcome back to Trigonometry.

00:02:52.280 It's great to be back.

00:02:53.400 Thanks for having me.

00:02:54.260 Yeah, good to have you on.

00:02:55.160 You're one of the most prominent, I would say, anti-war voices at the moment talking about the conflict in the Middle East.

00:03:02.960 And we've obviously had people talking from a more pro-Israel perspective.

00:03:07.440 So it's great to have you on to give an alternative view.

00:03:10.140 What have you made of the events of the last week?

00:03:12.840 I know there was a lot of talk originally about separating the question of whether the Israelis are justified in attacking Iran from the question of whether the U.S. should be involved in this conflict.

00:03:24.700 And if so, to what extent?

00:03:26.020 Obviously, the U.S. was involved in the beginning in standard ways, providing arms to Israel, intelligence to Israel, using U.S. military assets to shoot down ballistic missiles to protect Israel from retaliation.

00:03:37.040 But the question had been debated pretty vigorously.

00:03:40.580 Would the U.S. actually get involved in a very direct way, making itself a belligerent to the conflict?

00:03:46.040 A lot of debate about that.

00:03:47.200 And it turns out President Trump, and I think he had been signaling this for a while, decided the U.S. should fight alongside Israel and sent B-52 bombers and used submarines to shoot tomahawks at Iran's nuclear sites.

00:04:01.560 And the U.S. is now hoping, I guess, that Iran will just say, hey, no problem.

00:04:08.260 We don't really mind.

00:04:09.480 We don't intend to do anything about it.

00:04:10.880 Let's sit down at the negotiating table.

00:04:12.300 And so there's a sense that, well, it's OK, because this is just a limited one night precision strike.

00:04:19.060 And of course, the problem is the U.S. doesn't get to decide that that decision is in the hands of Iran.

00:04:23.600 And this morning, there are reports, which I think are to be expected, that Iran is planning on attacking U.S. bases, U.S. assets in the region within the next 24 to 48 hours.

00:04:32.140 And obviously, if that happens, which I think was very likely and anticipated, now you're talking about a war that has to escalate in terms of U.S. involvement.

00:04:41.620 And the question of where that goes is very alarming.

00:04:44.820 But I guess time will tell.

00:04:46.400 Well, it sounds like your dog is very pro-Israel in the background there, disagreeing vehemently with everything you're saying.

00:04:51.120 But why do you why do you think President Trump made the decision to attack Iran's nuclear enrichment facility as the way that he did?

00:05:02.480 I mean, we've all seen how President Trump operates for quite a while now.

00:05:06.320 I don't think he's a detailed oriented kind of person.

00:05:09.040 I want to get to that in a second, because I think it's actually crucial to the whole thing that happened here.

00:05:12.940 But he's often a byproduct of whoever he chooses to listen to at the moment.

00:05:19.380 And for a while, things seemed positive in terms of the signal sent, at least in terms of those of us who don't want the U.S. to get involved.

00:05:26.300 When Mike Waltz was fired as his national security advisor, by all accounts, due to his very ardent and vocal advocacy for a war with Iran,

00:05:35.800 the perception, at least according to President Trump, that he met behind his back with the Israelis to plan that sort of thing.

00:05:42.940 And so I think President Trump, this is, I think, crucial to the entire series of events.

00:05:49.760 And I think it's so important because a lot of this has gotten obscured.

00:05:52.380 The whole idea of a diplomatic resolution with Iran, which I genuinely believe President Trump wanted to pursue, intended to pursue, was hoping to pursue.

00:06:01.460 From the start, the idea was Iran, of course, is entitled to have a nuclear energy program, but they can't have a nuclear weapons program.

00:06:08.800 That was the basis of the first Iran deal that President Trump withdrew.

00:06:12.240 And at the very beginning, Steve Whitcoff, his primary envoy negotiator, said in an interview publicly with Fox,

00:06:18.380 yeah, of course, Iran needs to have the ability to enrich at low levels, consistent with nuclear energy, three to four percent.

00:06:24.340 And that's, of course, going to be the basis of how we proceed with the agreement.

00:06:28.840 The problem is that there was a big faction inside the Republican Party and, of course, in Israel.

00:06:33.960 And they adopted this tactic of saying, oh, no, we agree with President Trump.

00:06:38.220 We really encourage him to seek an agreement first.

00:06:40.660 Of course, diplomacy should be tried.

00:06:42.760 But their argument from the beginning was the only acceptable deal is one that entails the complete dismantling of Iran's nuclear program,

00:06:52.020 not nuclear weapons program, their nuclear program, meaning no enrichment, no nuclear facilities, no centrifuges or anything.

00:06:58.740 And along the way, I think in Trump's mind, a deal that prevented them from getting nukes did not mean any longer ensuring that they don't enrich beyond four percent.

00:07:09.300 It became no enrichment whatsoever.

00:07:11.620 And so when the Iranians were steadfastly refusing to give up their right that every country has to nuclear energy,

00:07:18.640 that in Trump's mind began to be understood as Iran refuses to negotiate to the point where I 10 days ago,

00:07:26.020 he was saying something like on that first one.

00:07:27.780 I don't know what got into Iran.

00:07:29.160 I thought we were headed toward a deal.

00:07:30.420 Something changed with them.

00:07:31.500 And so in Trump's mind, the Iranians refused to negotiate a deal when in reality, Iran didn't change anything.

00:07:40.120 But change was Trump's understanding of what an effective deal was.

00:07:43.440 And so I think once he got convinced that the Iranians wouldn't sign a deal for him,

00:07:47.660 he always said there are only two options, a diplomatic resolution to ensure no nukes or a war with Iran or bombing campaign.

00:07:55.400 And I think that's what happened.

00:07:56.520 It isn't what happened, but I'm not trying to argue with it for the sake of arguing,

00:08:00.960 but I think most people sensed that there was military action coming when we saw the IAEA report,

00:08:08.640 which said that not only was Iran enriching uranium to 60 percent and using its 20 percent stock to make 60 percent,

00:08:17.520 which is a clear indication of the path towards nuclear weapons and also, you know, not fully complying with inspections and so on.

00:08:25.000 Isn't that the reason that the Israelis and then the Americans became very concerned about where this was going?

00:08:30.320 Well, Trump said the reason that he, I think, decided to use military force or support the Israeli option was because he gave them 60 days

00:08:38.080 and there was no deal done in 60 days.

00:08:39.660 I think had a deal been done despite that 20 and 60 percent enrichment problem, then war could have been inverted.

00:08:46.440 Because let's remember the key fact here that I think so often gets overlooked.

00:08:49.520 Look, we had a deal in place since 2015 that was painstakingly negotiated by the entire world, basically,

00:08:55.000 that limited Iran's enrichment to three and a half percent, four percent.

00:08:59.200 And everybody, U.S. and tele agencies, the IAEA, surveillance mechanisms, the Europeans, the Russians,

00:09:07.140 everybody agreed that Iran had not been enriching beyond three to four percent.

00:09:12.440 Once Trump removed, withdrew, you know, laterally from that deal, declared it null and void, Iran no longer has any obligation to keep its enrichment below four percent.

00:09:24.600 So the fact that they were enriching at 20 percent or 60 percent still is within their rights legally under the NPT.

00:09:30.280 They don't have any obligation at that point to keep it to three to four percent.

00:09:33.680 That's what I'm saying. I don't think people are concerned about whether legally they're in compliance.

00:09:37.400 What people are concerned about is that they might be trying to get nukes.

00:09:40.540 That's what everyone worries about, right?

00:09:42.340 OK, so Iran has already proven, I don't mean like 40 years ago under a different government,

00:09:47.420 I mean within the last decade of the same government, that they're willing to give up their ability to develop nuclear weapons.

00:09:53.120 They don't want nuclear weapons.

00:09:54.520 They're happy to have an agreement that integrates them into the financial system, that lifts sanctions.

00:09:59.140 They've proven that, not just by entering that deal, but by complying with it.

00:10:03.640 So once Trump withdraws from that deal, sanctions go back in on Iran.

00:10:09.280 And now the question is, how does Iran have any leverage to get the West back to a deal?

00:10:13.660 So I think part of the strategy was to enrich, as they have the right to do now, to 20 percent, 60 percent.

00:10:20.100 It doesn't mean that they're actually pursuing nuclear weapons, but I think part of that was the leverage.

00:10:25.740 Like, hey, we'll give up this 20 and 60 percent enrichment to get a decent deal back in place.

00:10:30.880 It can be a little more rigorous.

00:10:32.000 So you say you've got more than Obama got, but that's the same basic framework.

00:10:35.000 And also, I do think there's a deterrence aspect when you see the Israelis bombing Libya, bombing Lebanon, bombing Syria, taking land from them, being much more aggressive in the West Bank.

00:10:44.880 We know what they did in Gaza to say we need some more deterrence until a deal is in place.

00:10:49.860 And I think going to 60 percent is a way of saying, like, we can get a nuclear weapon if we choose.

00:10:55.680 But everybody agrees, Tulsi Gabbard and the IC, that a decision had not been made to actually go to nuclear weapons.

00:11:02.580 But I think those are the two reasons why.

00:11:04.820 And had we just kept that deal in place or gotten a new deal like it, we wouldn't have had this problem in the first place.

00:11:09.700 And what's your perspective on why Trump pulled out of the Iran deal in the first place?

00:11:16.520 When Trump was running in 2016, he Obama was president, of course, and Trump needed a way to kind of build himself up as a change, as somebody who would be better.

00:11:27.840 And key to Trump's self-image for decades has been his unique ability to negotiate really good deals.

00:11:34.160 And you go back and you see him 34 years ago mocking the United States, saying we're getting killed on every deal.

00:11:39.900 We make stupid deals.

00:11:41.000 This is central to Trump's worldview.

00:11:43.660 And so part of the strategy when he was running was to say, look at how weak Obama is.

00:11:48.560 He's such a weak negotiator.

00:11:49.840 He got this terrible deal that's so one sided and unfair to the U.S.

00:11:54.200 It was like a campaign plank.

00:11:55.680 And I think, obviously, there are a lot of people who wanted him to take that position, who could help in his campaign.

00:12:01.460 And so once he won, he was almost it was almost inevitable that he had to withdraw from the Iran deal because that was what he campaigned on, withdrawing from the Iran deal and getting a better deal.

00:12:10.440 The problem is he withdrew and then never got a better deal.

00:12:14.240 And that has that is what has led us to this problem.

00:12:17.580 Had that deal been in place or had they implemented a new deal like it, we would we would have 24 seven surveillance of every Iranian nuclear facility inspectors there all the time, all the assurance that we wanted that they weren't going into breakout capability.

00:12:31.740 That's what caused the problem in the first place, not just withdrawing in 2018, but then the inability, refusal, whatever you want to call it, to negotiate a similar deal like it that gave Iran three to four percent enrichment, but not the ability to break out.

00:12:45.840 Isn't the reason that he was concerned and many people were concerned about that deal was that it freed up billions and billions of dollars that Iran then used to fund its proxies around the Middle East like Hezbollah, Hamas and others.

00:12:58.720 Well, if you want to ask Iran to take on obligations that no other country has, there's only four countries in the world that aren't signatories to the NPT, India, Pakistan, South Sudan and Israel.

00:13:12.920 So the entire world has signed on to the NPT, including Iran.

00:13:15.380 And under that agreement, every country in the world has the right to enrich uranium as much as they want.

00:13:20.760 They just can't get a nuclear weapon.

00:13:22.180 So if you want Iran to give up that right, obviously they need to have something in return.

00:13:25.800 And it's not like we're not doing with Iran.

00:13:29.440 We didn't do what the wrong we did do with Israel, which is to say, hey, here's billions of dollars for whatever you need.

00:13:35.460 You can buy U.S. weapons with it.

00:13:37.440 You can when you have a new war, we're going to give you more money.

00:13:40.560 We weren't transferring our money to to Iran.

00:13:43.600 I know. But what I'm saying is, isn't the reason that the U.S. is concerned is that when Iran gets extra money, instead of putting it into making the Iranian people better off, they put it into Hamas and Hezbollah and the Houthis.

00:13:55.720 That's what I'm asking.

00:13:56.580 Okay. President Trump just announced very proudly that we're going to have the first ever trillion dollar a year budget.

00:14:04.220 The United States spends, you know, three times as much as China, more than the next 15 countries combined.

00:14:10.660 We're going to lecture other countries about the evils of spending money on proxies and weapons to defend themselves at a region where they have all kinds of threats.

00:14:20.900 That's supposed to be a hallmark of of evil.

00:14:24.300 And those proxies don't threaten America.

00:14:26.200 Those proxies at the most defend Lebanon against Israeli incursions.

00:14:30.360 Hezbollah was created, of course, after the Israeli invasion of bombing campaign in South Lebanon in 1982.

00:14:35.020 Hamas is there for all kinds of reasons as a government of of of Gaza.

00:14:40.040 It's the reason that Yahoo gave the money.

00:14:42.420 So I think this idea that, oh, Iran can't do what the United States and Israel does constantly throughout the region.

00:14:47.900 We fund militias and proxies all throughout that region.

00:14:51.320 And we have for many, many years.

00:14:53.700 No, I don't think that is.

00:14:55.440 At least that's not the argument, right?

00:14:56.880 Our government is not saying we have to go to war with Iran or bomb Iran to stop them from funding proxies.

00:15:00.980 The argument is we have to go to war with Iran to prevent their nuclear program.

00:15:04.880 No, I was just saying that's that's why he pulled out of the deal in 2018, because he recognized that this was a state sponsor of terrorism in the Middle East.

00:15:14.500 And but do you think when do you think when Trump was saying we're going to get a new deal that he thought Iran would sign a deal that wouldn't entail the lifting of sanctions or the unfreezing of their money?

00:15:25.080 We're not talking here about giving Iran money.

00:15:27.780 We're talking about letting them have their money, the money that they get from selling oil and the like.

00:15:32.000 So that was always going to be a part of a deal.

00:15:34.400 Yeah. Sorry, Francis, you go ahead.

00:15:36.040 No, I think we're also one of the elements that we're missing here, Glenn, is the inflammatory language used by Iran to put it mildly when describing Israel.

00:15:44.360 A cancerous tumor should be wiped off the face of the earth.

00:15:46.940 If it's just one particular quote, we're going to treat Iran very differently to another country, I don't know, like Romania, for example, if they didn't play by the rules.

00:15:56.800 You see what I'm saying?

00:15:57.560 Yeah, I think this wiping Israel off the math language has been grossly distorted and weaponized to to imply that Iran is some kind of maniacal suicidal regime, that the second they have the opportunity, they're going to bomb Israel and incinerate Israel, even knowing that that would mean the incineration of their entire country.

00:16:18.080 For a long time, for many years, all of those Gulf states that we love also didn't recognize Israel.

00:16:24.080 They wouldn't even use the word Israel.

00:16:25.620 They didn't allow Israelis to enter their country.

00:16:28.140 There's always been a since 1948, a big pervasive view in that region that Israel is an illegitimate occupying country, that that was imposed on the Palestinians, that was imposed on the land.

00:16:40.120 And so, you know, a lot of people in the West also don't believe in Zionism, don't believe in the virtue of having a Jewish supremacist ethnostate in that region.

00:16:50.440 But that doesn't mean they want to obliterate Israel.

00:16:54.460 And I think Iran's behavior over the years is very inconsistent with the idea that there's some kind of completely irrational, aberrational, uniquely destructive power.

00:17:05.200 In fact, the whole strategy that we're using now after bombing Iran is to say to them, look, we know that you act in your enlightened self-interest and we're telling you it's better for you to come to the negotiating table than for you to attack our forces.

00:17:17.280 So we constantly and Iran already proved that they're willing to give up their nuclear weapons.

00:17:22.540 This idea that they're hellbent on destroying Israel with nukes is completely inconsistent with their behavior, despite what they chant.

00:17:30.380 Well, hang on a second, then there'll be people who go, look, you know, you've just made this point.

00:17:34.640 But Iran funded Hamas. Hamas committed, you know, October 7th, which was a horrific crime.

00:17:41.600 We can all agree the slaughter of innocent of innocent women and citizens and civilians.

00:17:47.320 Those two things can't be consistent, surely.

00:17:50.500 Well, there's another country in the region that also funded Hamas and that country is called Israel.

00:17:55.720 We know that as recently is a month before October 7th,

00:18:00.100 Netanyahu was ensuring that funding flow continued to go to Hamas for all sorts of reasons that the Israelis believed were in their interest.

00:18:07.440 But we also, yes, Iran does fund proxies in the region that do horrible things.

00:18:13.200 The United States and Israel fought in Syria alongside al-Qaeda and ISIS,

00:18:17.860 knowing that a lot of weapons we were sending to Syria were falling into the hands of al-Qaeda

00:18:22.240 because we were on the same side as them in trying to remove Bashar al-Assad.

00:18:25.880 We have funds, we funded proxies, and Israel does as well, all throughout the region.

00:18:29.820 In Lebanon, Israel heavily funds anti-government forces in Iran that are ready at any time to start a civil war,

00:18:37.780 including MEK, which is like an apocalyptic, terrorist occult of Iranian exiles.

00:18:44.740 So I think one of the things that we do in the West, and this is, I know, I've heard Constantine say before,

00:18:50.860 one of the problems we have in the West is that we can't imagine that other countries have-

00:18:56.780 We don't understand the fundamentalist mindset, yeah.

00:18:59.000 Exactly, yes, exactly.

00:19:00.980 And I think, I'm not so sure about that.

00:19:04.100 I mean, there are, certainly the Israelis have a lot of fundamentalists in their government now,

00:19:09.080 far more than they used to.

00:19:10.880 There's a lot of people in the U.S. Congress who have a very fundamentalist view of messianic end-times ideology

00:19:16.900 that they say shapes their foreign policy.

00:19:18.980 I'm not trying to equate those, I'm just saying we have fundamentalists in the West, and I have as well.

00:19:23.020 But the bigger point, I think, is that for me, I think the problem in the West

00:19:26.880 is that what we're incapable of doing is when we criticize the countries we're supposed to dislike,

00:19:33.640 like we're supposed to dislike Iran, but not Saudi Arabia,

00:19:36.520 we're supposed to dislike Russia, but not other countries that have been aggressive in the past,

00:19:41.460 including the United States, we have a very hard time thinking about

00:19:44.780 when we impose these standards of behavior that condemn these other countries that are our enemies,

00:19:49.860 how do we fare under those same standards?

00:19:53.020 That's what I think is the thing we have the hardest time doing in the West.

00:19:56.880 The world is changing fast, and it's not enough to just know what the news is.

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00:20:21.880 When you know where the money is coming from, you start to understand how power and influence shape the stories we see.

00:20:27.920 Their blind spot feed is my favorite feature.

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00:20:33.780 so you can actually spot media bias as it's happening and stay ahead of the narrative.

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00:21:29.920 Look, it's a really good point.

00:21:32.880 But also as well, you know, I mean, when you talk, when you hear Ron use words like the

00:21:38.140 great Satan, we're the little Satan, which I actually find quite offensive, considering

00:21:42.320 we helped to create your fine nation.

00:21:46.080 Those words, you know, they build and they escalate.

00:21:50.020 And as a result, what they do is, unfortunately, it's more likely that it will lead to conflict

00:21:57.340 because there is a lack of trust there.

00:21:59.700 How can you expect to negotiate with a country that ultimately compares you to Satan?

00:22:05.740 We did negotiate with them.

00:22:07.800 We negotiated very, very successfully with them just 10 years ago in 2015 in a deal that

00:22:13.920 they didn't nullify that we nullified.

00:22:15.980 But let me ask you this.

00:22:17.440 OK, they called the United States the Great Satan.

00:22:20.440 I'm sorry, you guys are kind of little now, but still, you're big enough to be a Satan.

00:22:24.720 So at least take that.

00:22:26.940 But why do they why is that?

00:22:29.680 Why, for example, I live in Brazil.

00:22:31.920 It's a country that is very, very large.

00:22:34.780 It's the sixth most populous country on the planet.

00:22:37.280 It's strategically important, has lots of oil, has major environmental reserves.

00:22:42.160 It's a very free country.

00:22:43.660 Women walk around in bikinis.

00:22:45.660 All the things that we're told that the Muslims extremists hate about the West.

00:22:50.000 And yet they don't chant death to Brazil or death to Japan or call, you know, Norway the

00:22:54.620 great Satan.

00:22:55.260 Why, in your mind, does Iran call the United States the great Satan or death to America?

00:23:01.600 Like, why?

00:23:02.340 Why America and not any of the other number of countries that are liberal democracies?

00:23:06.340 Because America, they see, is the number one force in the number one force in the world.

00:23:12.600 They fund Israel.

00:23:13.680 They have also, let's be fair, been involved in regime changes, illegal invasions, which

00:23:18.540 have been absolutely horrific.

00:23:19.720 And everybody in this conversation accepts that what happened in Iraq was disgraceful.

00:23:25.020 But I think that's such an important, I do think this is such an important point because

00:23:30.780 here in Brazil, which has always had a close relationship with the United States because

00:23:35.780 of the hemisphere and proximity, Brazil is the second largest country in the hemisphere.

00:23:40.720 Nonetheless, there was a huge amount of anti-American sentiment in Brazil because in 1964, there was

00:23:46.740 a perception that the democratic government of Brazil started to become a little bit too left

00:23:51.000 wing, tilt a little bit toward Moscow, based on basically very mild, like rent control

00:23:55.500 and land redistribution measures, nothing remotely communist.

00:23:59.340 But at that time, especially in the early 1960s, there was a huge sensitivity to any country

00:24:03.860 in this region getting too close to Moscow or leaning a little bit in the more socialist

00:24:08.080 direction.

00:24:09.100 And we helped overthrow the CIA, did the democratically elected government of Brazil and imposed on Brazil

00:24:14.100 a vicious, brutal military dictatorship that lasted and ruled for the next 25 years.

00:24:21.000 25 years, 24 years.

00:24:23.200 And it was, you know, obviously most people have a memory of that.

00:24:28.080 Certainly people in the political class do.

00:24:30.120 And so we create this anti-Americanism with their action.

00:24:32.680 The CIA has a term for that blowback that if we interfere in another country.

00:24:35.980 So Glenn, I understand I'm half South American.

00:24:39.500 Okay, Glenn.

00:24:40.100 So let me ask you about that.

00:24:41.440 And there's a counter question because it's a fair point.

00:24:44.160 I definitely think both Britain and America have done a lot in the Middle East to engender

00:24:49.640 resentment, particularly during the colonial period with this country, which is why we're

00:24:54.220 still a Satan, little as we might be.

00:24:56.560 But let me ask you something else.

00:24:58.520 Why is it that people in Brazil don't strap suicide vests to themselves and blow up Americans?

00:25:03.100 Why is it that they don't call America the great Satan?

00:25:05.620 What's the difference?

00:25:06.280 Well, because there was the CIA overthrown, I guess, before, but there hasn't been aggression

00:25:13.020 toward Brazil since.

00:25:15.280 If you look at things from the perspective of Iran.

00:25:16.600 But you said there's anti-American sentiment.

00:25:18.460 Why isn't that manifesting itself in suicide bombings, martyrdom, the great Satan chance of

00:25:24.620 death to America?

00:25:25.480 Is there perhaps some kind of difference culturally?

00:25:28.020 I mean, I think that has the first of all, Al Qaeda, suicide vests, all of that has come

00:25:32.860 a lot more from Sunni, the Sunni countries than it has from Shia and the Shiites.

00:25:39.500 And we're very close to Saudi Arabia, the country that probably produced more terrorists, certainly

00:25:44.180 in terms of 9-11 and the subsequent ones.

00:25:46.180 But you can see what I'm getting at, right?

00:25:47.980 No.

00:25:48.280 Yeah, yeah, yeah.

00:25:48.880 Yes, I do.

00:25:49.440 But I think the difference is, is that we have we it's not like our interest and interference

00:25:55.800 in that region, you have to go back to 1954 to find it.

00:25:59.640 The United States has launched major wars, destabilizing regime change, major wars in

00:26:06.260 Iran's two biggest neighbors in Saudi Arabia, in Iraq and Afghanistan, right on either side

00:26:11.980 of it.

00:26:12.560 The United States has spoken openly about war with Iran for many years.

00:26:17.320 I remember when I first started writing about politics, 2005, at the height of the war on

00:26:20.120 terror.

00:26:20.960 The plan of the neocons was not to stop in Baghdad.

00:26:24.420 Their phrase was real men go to Tehran.

00:26:26.600 We've been threatening regime change against that country for a long time.

00:26:30.580 We have military bases surrounding them all over.

00:26:34.320 We've imposed very harsh sanctions on them.

00:26:36.580 I'm not, again, justifying any things that Iran does.

00:26:40.200 I'm just saying I understand from Iran's perspective why it is that they regard the United

00:26:45.640 States as a unique threat.

00:26:46.920 It's because of our behavior in that region.

00:26:48.500 Of course, our behavior in that region is explained by both the presence of Israel and the massive

00:26:53.480 amount of oil reserves that exist there.

00:26:56.100 And what do you think is the role of religion and particularly Islamism in all of this?

00:27:02.460 I think that in order to, I mean, certainly in the West, we've long had people, young men

00:27:09.080 in particular, who have volunteered to go and fight and die for their nation.

00:27:14.340 And you have to have some kind of passionate, fervent belief to sacrifice your life for a

00:27:20.780 cause.

00:27:21.460 It could be religion.

00:27:22.900 And I think a lot of what has motivated the West is the view that we have a Western civilization

00:27:28.240 that we value.

00:27:29.140 That certainly includes Christianity.

00:27:30.300 But a lot of it is nationalisms, indoctrination.

00:27:35.240 And I think, of course, when you have a big religious view that God is on your side, that

00:27:39.660 you are a religious fundamentalist, you believe that you are justified, in fact, required to

00:27:46.640 sacrifice your life to kill your enemies.

00:27:48.360 I think that's what the Israelis are doing as well.

00:27:49.980 They believe God gave them not just what is internationally recognized as Israel, but

00:27:53.400 also the West Bank, Gaza, parts of Syria, parts of Lebanon.

00:27:56.280 And they are motivated as well by a kind of religious fanaticism.

00:27:59.800 That's one way that you can get human beings to sacrifice their lives to fight for a cause.

00:28:05.220 But that's not like it's unique to Islam.

00:28:07.340 I'm not saying it's unique to Islam, but if you kind of know history, you know that the

00:28:11.220 entire Middle East didn't used to be Islamic.

00:28:13.360 It became Islamic through conquest.

00:28:15.440 And if you understand anything about Islam, you know that tolerance of Christians and Jews

00:28:20.100 and others, you know, it happens, but it's within a hierarchical system where they're

00:28:25.780 second class citizens and really the opposition to the existence of Israel is partly about

00:28:31.040 land, but it's also partly a religious thing, which is one of the reasons that Christians

00:28:36.260 who used to be very prominent in that region have been driven out of all of the Middle East

00:28:40.700 and no longer the majority in Egypt, no longer the majority in Lebanon.

00:28:44.280 So is it not the case that you're downplaying the role of religion in this quite a bit every

00:28:48.340 time you compare it to Americans fighting for their country or Israel believing it has

00:28:52.880 a right to exist?

00:28:53.640 No, I think obviously in Islamic countries, Islam is important.

00:28:58.900 Islam is very important to a lot of Muslims, and it drives them to do all sorts of things

00:29:04.600 that if you were just agnostic or atheist, believe in nothing, or nihilist, you would

00:29:08.860 never do.

00:29:09.380 You would prioritize your material life and the prolongation of your existence as the highest

00:29:15.660 priority.

00:29:16.080 People who are religious don't have that view, especially if they're fundamentalists.

00:29:19.620 So I absolutely do think it's important.

00:29:21.340 I would never downplay the importance of Islam in the Muslim world, but here's the question

00:29:25.500 that I have for you.

00:29:26.600 There's so many non-Muslim countries all over the world.

00:29:30.620 All of Europe is, for now at least, non-Muslim, certainly non-majority Muslim.

00:29:36.760 All of South America is non-Muslim majority.

00:29:39.660 Why is it that they pick and choose certain countries to attack?

00:29:44.000 I mean, why don't they hate Japan or Korea, which is not a Muslim country?

00:29:49.160 Why don't they hate Argentina or Uruguay, which are non-Muslim countries?

00:29:55.140 I think there are geopolitical reasons as well.

00:29:57.780 If you're asking, of course, and those geopolitical reasons are that America and Britain in particular

00:30:03.880 have a history of being the dominant forces of Western civilization and therefore are represented

00:30:08.900 in that area in that way.

00:30:10.420 In the same way that if the Islamic civilization was the dominant civilization in the world,

00:30:15.880 there'd probably be a lot of countries that would be very unhappy with the strongest Islamic

00:30:20.520 countries to the extent that they were interfering in events elsewhere.

00:30:24.400 So I don't deny that.

00:30:25.840 But the reason I'm asking you this, Glenn, I think this is, you know, one of the things

00:30:29.140 you are very good at is encouraging people to see things through the eyes of people on

00:30:34.260 the other side of any conflict.

00:30:35.520 And I genuinely think that that's a strength of yours.

00:30:37.820 But I think about, say, the leaders of Hamas, for example, right?

00:30:41.920 We know that many of them are billionaires, many of them living outside of Gaza in safety

00:30:48.360 and comfort and plenty.

00:30:49.920 And yet we see time and again that they're willing to lay down their lives and those of their

00:30:53.880 children for this cause.

00:30:56.960 Now, as I look around at other conflicts around the world, you know, as you know, I have a

00:31:00.880 background from Eastern Europe and Russia.

00:31:03.360 The leaders of Russia are not laying down their lives in Ukraine.

00:31:06.820 They're not sending their sons to the front line.

00:31:08.860 Likewise, in America, in all of these places where religion is not as strong, people tend to

00:31:14.640 sort of act in their own personal self-interest.

00:31:17.280 But in places like the Middle East, particularly on the Islam side of things, there is this

00:31:24.560 very strong belief in laying down your life.

00:31:27.560 And we know that there's scriptural reasons and kind of indoctrination reasons for why that

00:31:31.960 is.

00:31:32.340 And I just think it's possible that you're seriously underestimating the importance of

00:31:35.900 that in this conflict.

00:31:36.600 So two things about that.

00:31:38.660 I understand your point.

00:31:39.780 I understand.

00:31:40.720 I want to stress, I don't think Islam is just like an afterthought to the region.

00:31:45.900 It's absolutely central to the worldview of religious Muslims, especially in more fundamental

00:31:51.780 societies.

00:31:52.380 And you do have like reform type Islam in various places, in the United States, in the West,

00:31:58.200 in Lebanon, et cetera.

00:32:00.340 But so I'm not downplaying it.

00:32:02.240 But I think, first of all, between the two societies that you just drew out, I actually

00:32:09.320 prefer the one where leaders who advocate for war and send their country to war put

00:32:15.400 their families and themselves at risk in that war rather than just sending other families

00:32:20.880 to go and die in them.

00:32:22.480 And that has been the history of Western civilization.

00:32:24.920 European monarchs would be at the front lines of the wars that they would fight.

00:32:28.880 And I think that actually is a more virtuous society.

00:32:31.280 The American founders, obviously, all laid down their lives and risked their lives in

00:32:35.380 the American Revolution.

00:32:36.380 They didn't just have this kind of political class that sent poor people and their families

00:32:40.020 to go fight in them.

00:32:41.260 I think that's actually quite virtuous.

00:32:43.260 But this is what I think is so important to recognize.

00:32:47.320 So we're told that the Islamic Republic of Iran, of all the kind of Muslim countries,

00:32:52.920 is the most dangerous from a fundamentalist religious perspective, that it's like an apocalyptic

00:32:57.840 cult.

00:32:58.360 You hear all kinds of claims about the version of Islam they believe in being uniquely dangerous

00:33:02.840 and the like.

00:33:04.420 But I have to keep going back to this, that if you look at how Iran has behaved in the

00:33:08.840 region, and yes, they fund proxies that do terrible things, including October 7.

00:33:13.960 You know the history of the blood that the United States and Britain have on their hands,

00:33:17.780 not in the past, but recent from the proxies we fund.

00:33:20.240 But if you look at what their behavior was, they negotiated an agreement.

00:33:25.880 And, you know, the Persians are considered very civilized, very rational to work with,

00:33:32.100 including Muslim Persians.

00:33:34.240 And the entire world worked on a framework that the Iranians participated in with a lot

00:33:39.360 of sophistication and political skill to reach an agreement with the entire world that governed

00:33:44.300 their nuclear program.

00:33:45.080 Their attitude wasn't like North Korea's, like we're this freakish, isolated state that's

00:33:51.520 going to get nuclear weapons.

00:33:52.440 They gave up their nuclear weapons voluntarily.

00:33:55.220 They let the entire world-

00:33:56.640 But that's why I asked you the question about what they did with the money that that deal

00:34:00.200 freed up.

00:34:00.860 And what they did with the money that that freed up is they plowed it into funding terrorism,

00:34:05.460 right?

00:34:05.720 Well, I mean, what is terrorism and what isn't terrorism, I think, is something that

00:34:15.400 often is debated and we switch sides a lot on that.

00:34:18.560 But are you saying they didn't plow it into terrorism?

00:34:21.140 I just, I want to have a definition of terrorism, but they certainly plowed it into-

00:34:25.720 They gave it to Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and others.

00:34:28.260 Right.

00:34:28.740 Groups that the United States for the moment considers to be terrorist organizations,

00:34:32.320 but not everyone in the world considers them to.

00:34:34.300 But let's agree-

00:34:36.560 Do you not?

00:34:37.660 No, but let's-

00:34:38.780 Do I agree-

00:34:39.000 Do you consider Hamas and Hezbollah terrorists?

00:34:42.740 In the sense that it would also include things that lots of other countries and groups do

00:34:47.280 that aren't considered terrorists.

00:34:48.600 I don't think there's unique things that Hamas and Hezbollah does that we in the West don't

00:34:54.300 do or that other countries in the world don't do.

00:34:55.280 I'm just asking whether you consider them terrorists.

00:34:57.800 I just don't, I think it's just, I want to get away from the semantic point because I think

00:35:02.140 we would have to then arrive at an agree-to definition of terrorism.

00:35:05.260 I'm not being pedantic for the sake of it.

00:35:06.940 It's just, you challenged what I said.

00:35:08.700 I said that Iran took the money freed up by the deal that you're praising and they started

00:35:14.140 plowing it into terrorism.

00:35:15.560 And you kind of winced at my use of the term.

00:35:18.460 So I'm just trying to establish whether you agree with me that Hamas and Hezbollah are

00:35:23.080 terrorist organizations.

00:35:24.060 I will agree.

00:35:25.520 I mean, I think we can agree on the facts, which is that Iran took some of that money

00:35:28.880 and funded Hamas and Hezbollah.

00:35:30.900 We can have a signed debate about-

00:35:32.060 So therefore, that's the concern about allowing them, you know, you say they just did this

00:35:36.360 deal and everything was hunky-dory.

00:35:37.980 And a lot of people will say, well, the deal happened.

00:35:40.800 And the reason that Trump withdrew from it is because he realized effectively what we were

00:35:45.540 doing is freeing up money for Iran to invest in terrorist activity.

00:35:49.860 That's, that would be the argument.

00:35:51.060 I know, but the United States doesn't have the right to go around the world stealing

00:35:56.220 money and freezing assets of whatever country spends money in its, in its perceived defense,

00:36:02.040 defensive national self-interest.

00:36:03.800 The Chinese spend massive amounts more than Iran does on proxies, on various military and

00:36:11.380 intelligence assets.

00:36:12.180 And the ones who spend the most of all is the United States.

00:36:14.440 And that, this is why I have a hard time getting worked up over the fact morally or, or

00:36:20.180 pragmatically or in any other way over the fact that Iran spends some of its money on

00:36:25.260 forces that it considers necessary to their national self-interest when we do that more

00:36:29.900 than anybody.

00:36:30.740 And there are a lot of, most countries do that.

00:36:32.680 Take a portion of the money that they get from their, monetizing their national assets

00:36:37.520 or their economy and spend it on military use.

00:36:42.100 The UK does it.

00:36:42.960 The US does it.

00:36:43.880 Israel does it.

00:36:44.660 So I just, I don't, yes, Iran, if they have money, they're going to spend some of it on

00:36:49.380 their security.

00:36:50.060 They'd be crazy not to, given who they're surrounded by and what threats they, they,

00:36:54.340 they get every day.

00:36:55.220 But it's not like that's a crime to spend money on proxies or on national defense.

00:37:00.740 There's quite a lot of difference between national defense and giving money to Hamas and

00:37:05.360 Hezbollah, isn't there?

00:37:06.300 I can, I mean, you can look at some of the groups that the United States has funded and

00:37:11.260 continues to fund in the Middle East, including some fundamentalist groups in Syria, again,

00:37:15.840 so that's a fair point, but I'm just, that's a fair point.

00:37:18.760 I'm just saying there's a big difference between national security and funding Hamas and Hezbollah.

00:37:23.220 And most big countries do both.

00:37:25.400 Most big countries buy weapons.

00:37:27.180 You said national security.

00:37:28.780 That's why I'm picking it up, right?

00:37:29.780 No, but that's because-

00:37:30.480 You're kind of, you're making an equivalence between the two.

00:37:33.580 No, but I think that Iran considers this network of proxies or allies in the region to be a

00:37:41.620 fundamental way that they defend themselves, part of their deterrence, part of their extension

00:37:45.380 of influence in the region.

00:37:46.880 They don't fund Hamas and fund Hezbollah out of some benevolence or malevolence.

00:37:52.380 They fund it because they view it in their national self-interest, same with the Houthis

00:37:56.480 who fought the Saudis.

00:37:58.920 These are, I mean, and I guess this is what I'm saying is at the end of the day, I know we

00:38:02.440 have this caricature of Iran as being this uniquely evil, you know, kind of fanatical

00:38:08.520 religious cult that doesn't operate according to the same principles.

00:38:12.500 We were told that about Saddam Hussein.

00:38:14.000 We basically get told that about every country that we go to war with.

00:38:16.840 They all get equated to Hitler.

00:38:18.640 They're all, we're all told they don't operate in the same way.

00:38:20.500 We were told the Vietnamese don't value life and don't mourn their children's death because

00:38:24.840 they don't value life in the same way that, that, that white people on the West do.

00:38:28.360 This is always part of war propaganda, but if you look at their behavior, I don't think

00:38:33.160 they're operating according to significantly different rules than we in the West operate

00:38:36.860 by or that countries in that region operate by.

00:38:39.360 They, they know they have a lot of threats to their security.

00:38:41.920 Like most countries in that region do and spend part of their money on what they think

00:38:45.360 is necessary to defend Iran, the Iranian people and the, and Iranian sovereignty.

00:38:49.780 So, I mean, carry on good.

00:38:54.460 Sorry.

00:38:54.660 No, no, that's good.

00:38:56.820 But because to me, and what a lot of people listening to this would think is that the defense

00:39:03.160 point isn't wholly accurate because not only is Iran and you look, you can say the same

00:39:08.180 thing about the West.

00:39:09.200 Fair enough.

00:39:10.220 But Iran isn't solely interested in self-defense.

00:39:13.820 It's interested in destabilization.

00:39:16.020 If you look at their, at their funding and the way that they have funded these groups,

00:39:21.840 these groups, the purpose of these groups, and this coming from somebody who has family

00:39:25.740 in Lebanon, by the way, I have seen what Hezbollah has done to Lebanon.

00:39:30.080 I have seen what fundamentalist Islam has done to where the country of my grandfather.

00:39:37.060 So to what Iran are really interested in is destabilization.

00:39:42.660 Surely it's not just about self-defense.

00:39:44.760 I mean, I think the most destabilizing force in the world is the United States.

00:39:50.400 Yes, Lebanon, Hezbollah has brought problems to Lebanon.

00:39:54.820 Nowhere near what we brought to Iraq, which even Tony Blair, despite being an advocate,

00:40:00.280 says that invasion of Iraq and the removal of Saddam Hussein is what gave rise to ISIS.

00:40:04.320 We wouldn't have had ISIS had we not invaded Iraq.

00:40:06.940 We were both against the war in Iraq.

00:40:08.460 No, no, I knew you guys were.

00:40:09.480 You don't need to convince me.

00:40:10.140 No, no, I knew you guys were.

00:40:11.040 I'm just saying, like, in terms of the destabilization point, we removed Gaddafi, created anarchy that

00:40:17.340 to this day continues in Libya.

00:40:19.120 There's a lot of destabilizing forces going on.

00:40:22.220 At the end of the day, you guys can think it's just or not as whatever you want to call

00:40:26.120 it, preemptive war, preventative war.

00:40:27.660 This war that just began, that's now destabilizing the Middle East in a potentially unique and

00:40:33.420 incomparable way, was started by the United States and Israel and not by Iran.

00:40:37.200 Again, I understand you can make the argument what Iran did was provocative or that it made

00:40:42.120 it somehow just, but there's no doubt that the bombs began falling and that the war began

00:40:47.000 by Israeli and American military assets being used to attack Iran.

00:40:52.320 That's extremely destabilizing.

00:40:53.920 Well, hang on a second, Glenn.

00:40:56.420 Someone would say, look, the fact that Iran had been funding Hamas, who then created,

00:41:00.680 who then were responsible for October the 7th, over 1,000 civilians being slaughtered

00:41:06.140 and massacred, that's the thing that really started this conflict.

00:41:09.840 But you agreed that Israel was also funding Hamas, right?

00:41:13.020 You know that Netanyahu and Israel were also funding Hamas?

00:41:15.460 How much money did they give to Hamas?

00:41:17.120 Not as much as Iran did, but they gave them-

00:41:19.080 So how much?

00:41:19.860 I don't know what the amount is.

00:41:21.300 Because Iran gives Hamas about $100 million a year, according to the State Department.

00:41:26.980 I can't imagine Israel gives them that much money or anything like that much money.

00:41:31.120 Why is Israel funding Hamas?

00:41:33.840 I have no idea.

00:41:35.420 And I thought it was more like they talked to Qatar about it, but perhaps you can tell

00:41:40.140 us more.

00:41:40.500 You're probably better informed.

00:41:41.560 No, I mean, one of the strategies that Netanyahu has had and that the Israelis have had for a

00:41:47.640 long time is to keep the Palestinians divided.

00:41:49.880 That's number one.

00:41:50.760 And so they like the fact that there's no unifying force.

00:41:53.260 You have the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank.

00:41:55.820 You have Hamas in Gaza.

00:41:59.280 But the other bigger strategic benefit that the Israelis get from having Hamas there is

00:42:04.860 that it dilutes the pressure on Israel to give the Palestinians their own state.

00:42:11.380 They love Hamas.

00:42:12.040 Hamas is who they get to point to and say, look, how can we do a deal and give a state

00:42:17.020 to people who are under the control and governed by Hamas, which is why Israel is helping Hamas

00:42:21.640 stay in power by financing them and funding them.

00:42:24.440 So Israel also—and I would say the biggest destabilizing event in the Middle East until

00:42:30.260 what just is happening now over the last, say, decade is the regime change war that the

00:42:35.880 United States and Israel fought in Syria that completely destroyed that country that ushered

00:42:41.340 in a leader who, up until six months ago, had a $10 million bounty on his head from the

00:42:47.600 Justice Department because of his long affiliation with al-Qaeda and potentially even ISIS.

00:42:52.960 That was a massively destabilizing campaign at the heart of the Middle East that was primarily

00:42:59.120 funded by and sponsored by the United States, fighting alongside al-Qaeda and ISIS to remove

00:43:04.300 Bashar al-Assad and it completely destabilized everything.

00:43:07.860 So I'm not—this is not in order to use whataboutism and justify what Iran is doing.

00:43:13.340 What I'm trying to do is object to this notion that Iran is somehow aberrational, that there's

00:43:18.620 some sort of unique or uniquely dangerous or threatening regime that does things that no

00:43:24.140 other country does.

00:43:25.680 And what gives me the most confidence in Iran's rational self-interest is the deal that they

00:43:31.480 entered into to give up nuclear weapons.

00:43:33.580 Why would an apocalyptic suicidal cult hell-bent on destroying Israel purposely enter into a deal,

00:43:40.660 the only purpose of which is to ensure that they cannot develop and enrich uranium to the

00:43:46.080 point where they can have nuclear weapons?

00:43:47.460 That seems so inconsistent to me.

00:43:49.140 Glenn, now that this has happened, the events of Sunday morning, where do you think we go

00:43:57.560 from here?

00:43:58.020 Because you get people on the internet saying, oh, this is the beginning of World War III,

00:44:01.400 and I don't think anybody would realistically entertain that particular idea.

00:44:07.100 But where do you think it goes now?

00:44:08.880 I think everything hinges now on the reaction of the Iranians to the U.S. bombing, which is

00:44:15.280 somewhat ironic, right?

00:44:16.300 That the argument has always been this is a crazy, insane, unhinged, fanatical regime.

00:44:24.640 And now the entire objective of preventing further escalation, including greater U.S.

00:44:29.660 involvement, depends upon Iranian restraint.

00:44:33.400 There's all sorts of very vulnerable U.S. assets, including service members in that region,

00:44:39.400 that Iran could easily attack.

00:44:41.000 Probably the most vulnerable are the U.S. service members in Iraq who are working with

00:44:45.000 the Iraqi security forces still to train them, to give them weaponry and teach them how to

00:44:52.120 use it.

00:44:52.960 And a lot of the Iraqi military, a lot of the Iraqi armed forces are loyal to Iran.

00:45:00.660 They're the Shia militias, which is why Iran, in so many ways, was the biggest beneficiary

00:45:05.020 of the Iraq war.

00:45:06.000 Iran could easily use those militias inside Iraq, as they've done before, to attack U.S.

00:45:10.580 bases, to attack U.S. personnel in Iraq.

00:45:12.700 They could use missiles to attack not the bigger bases like the one in Qatar that are pretty

00:45:17.200 protected, but a lot of smaller bases and kill U.S. service members, which they've

00:45:20.520 done, they can close the Strait of Hormuz, jeopardizing the world.

00:45:23.540 So if Iran does any of those things, you guys agree with me, right?

00:45:28.120 Trump would feel compelled and arguably would be compelled, I guess, to go to war even more

00:45:35.500 extensively with Iran than he has already done.

00:45:38.200 And that's what I've always considered so alarming about you don't start a war of this

00:45:44.160 kind with a major country because you may have an idea in your head of how you want it

00:45:49.620 to go, but usually that's not how wars go.

00:45:53.400 And so that is the biggest concern is if I were a betting person and I hope I'm wrong,

00:45:59.060 I hope I lose the money that I would bet, it's hard for me to imagine how this war doesn't

00:46:03.080 escalate further, not just between Israel and Iran, but between Iran and the United States.

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00:47:32.260 So I guess the counter-argument is this, Glenn.

00:47:36.120 It's really in nobody's interest to see this war escalate.

00:47:39.780 So for instance, from the America side, you've got Trump's promises to MAGA and the MAGA

00:47:45.380 base that he is not going to be involving troops in the Middle East.

00:47:50.280 So he does not want to alienate the core, the fan, the hardcore of MAGA.

00:47:55.100 You've got Russia, who aren't going to want to really want to get involved because they're

00:47:59.840 already involved up to their eyeballs in Ukraine.

00:48:03.140 You've got Iran and the Ayatollah and his regime who are hanging on to power by fingertips

00:48:09.200 at the moment now and are actually cracking down extremely hard on their own citizens

00:48:14.240 in order to prevent some kind of revolution.

00:48:16.640 And then you've got China who really don't want to get involved because it's not in their

00:48:22.440 interests and then in a couple of years down the line, however you see it, they're looking

00:48:26.940 more covetously at Taiwan.

00:48:28.820 What would you say to that?

00:48:30.920 Yeah, I agree.

00:48:31.600 I think the World War III threat is not zero or close to zero, but I agree it's unlikely

00:48:37.120 for the reasons that you just said, namely that the countries that might be inclined to

00:48:42.460 side with Iran, that are siding with Iran, are highly unlikely to get involved in an all-out

00:48:47.300 conflict with Israel or the United States, like a shooting war of some kind.

00:48:51.500 Russia, for the reason that you said, that they're very tied down with not just Ukraine,

00:48:55.580 but the entire, all of NATO backing Ukraine.

00:48:58.840 China just doesn't fight wars.

00:49:00.560 China hasn't fought a war in the last 46 years.

00:49:04.300 They boast about the fact that while the United States wastes trillions of dollars in Middle

00:49:07.820 East wars that do nothing, they use their resources to build up their country, build

00:49:11.980 infrastructure, build their military, and to the extent they do have offensive designs

00:49:17.500 militarily, it's within their region, including Taiwan, not fighting a faraway war in the

00:49:22.120 Middle East.

00:49:22.840 So I think Chinese and Russian involvement in this war are unlikely.

00:49:27.000 I think the Houthis are going to get more active, but that doesn't make a world war.

00:49:30.860 So it's not a world war that I'm concerned about.

00:49:33.720 World War III, that's, I agree, is not likely.

00:49:36.120 The concern that I have is, and it's not just Trump's base, the United States has been really

00:49:41.020 damaged by fighting these forever wars, obviously over the last 25 years, but you go back to

00:49:45.980 Vietnam, it's torn the fabric of our country apart.

00:49:49.440 It's put us into massive debt.

00:49:50.840 It's made us an overly militarized society.

00:49:53.380 Countries that fight war lose civil liberties.

00:49:55.260 We've certainly lost a lot of civil liberties because of the idea of war.

00:49:59.800 You're already seeing this rhetoric that now we have Iranian sleeper cells in the United

00:50:02.780 States.

00:50:03.080 We have to increase our domestic surveillance and law enforcement.

00:50:07.400 And what we have seen is that the more we get involved in Middle East wars, especially

00:50:10.940 ones that become very difficult to extricate ourselves from, the worse it is for our country.

00:50:17.300 And so even if it's something short of a world war, which I would also bet it would be,

00:50:22.000 the bigger concern I have is that just like the, and this is the other problem is, just

00:50:27.820 like I said before, that Trump would be bound if we, the Iran kills service members or blows

00:50:33.660 up American assets, the country's going to demand, you can't let them do that.

00:50:37.020 I think the Iranian regime is more incentivized to show its strength than its weakness, precisely

00:50:44.540 because of those domestic concerns that you cited.

00:50:46.640 Namely, you know, the Iranian regime has been about projecting strength and to be able to

00:50:51.540 say, oh, the United States just flew over our country without permission, violated our

00:50:55.680 sovereignty, bombed out of, you know, three different nuclear facilities in addition to

00:51:01.200 helping Israel.

00:51:01.920 But we're not going to do anything back to the United States.

00:51:03.960 We're going to be just, okay, you bombed us now, it's time to sit down at the Gushcheon

00:51:07.420 table.

00:51:07.880 I don't think Iranian leaders could survive that.

00:51:10.760 And not just politically, but also in terms of having any credibility domestically and

00:51:14.940 internationally and militarily.

00:51:16.560 Like, who would respect a country that lets another country bomb them and does nothing?

00:51:20.740 That's the concern that I have, is we almost force the Iranians now to retaliate in some

00:51:25.460 way against the United States.

00:51:26.660 Hopefully, they'll be very restrained in what they do.

00:51:28.720 There could be coordination between the two countries, but that's the big danger that

00:51:33.400 I see here.

00:51:34.560 I think that one of the things that people aren't talking, look, and that's a very real

00:51:38.760 danger.

00:51:39.480 And it's a good point well made.

00:51:41.640 I think one of the things that people aren't talking enough about this conflict is going

00:51:45.320 to be the financial implications.

00:51:47.260 Because you talked about the Strait of Hormuz, and I think that is a very, very interesting

00:51:53.400 situation, particularly when you factor in Iran's production of oil, how that affects

00:51:58.780 us.

00:51:59.600 Can we talk about that a little bit?

00:52:01.600 Yeah, I'm so glad you asked about that.

00:52:03.700 You know, Americans are more or less in the posture that they don't necessarily love the

00:52:11.240 idea of wars from air bombing perspectives.

00:52:13.300 But if American, you know, men and women aren't coming back in caskets and we're not fighting

00:52:18.560 a major ground war, even if they say we don't like it, they don't really care, right?

00:52:23.100 Like it's something that but what they do care about, and we've seen this over and over,

00:52:28.160 is the any impact on negative impact on their on their lives economically.

00:52:33.300 And if it's not just closing the Strait of Hormuz, what the Iranians could do that's even

00:52:38.000 easier and more threatening is that they perceive, which, of course, is true, that the

00:52:42.960 Emiratis or the Qataris or even the Saudis have provided any sort of assistance or participation

00:52:49.800 in the U.S. attack by letting them fly over their country or use the bases that we have

00:52:54.000 there.

00:52:55.040 These are, especially in the case of Qatar and the Arab Emirates and Bahrain and Jordan,

00:53:00.220 these are tiny, fragile little, you know, kingdoms that have a massive amount of oil that

00:53:05.920 are easily attacked and destroyed.

00:53:08.720 You could really disrupt the world economy through that kind of an attack.

00:53:13.440 Obviously, if the Israelis can strike Israel, they can strike those much closer in smaller

00:53:17.920 countries as well, closing the Strait.

00:53:19.680 So if Americans start to have a significant spike in gas prices, which Americans, you know,

00:53:25.040 obviously are going to notice immediately, that's when they're going to start asking,

00:53:28.440 wait a minute, why?

00:53:29.840 Why are we in war with Iran?

00:53:31.120 Why do we have to now pay double or triple or worse for our gas prices?

00:53:37.720 And that kind of economic disruption, I think, is perhaps as alarming and disruptive as the

00:53:43.880 military escalation.

00:53:46.420 And how likely it is, do you think, that Iran are going to engage in these types of tactics?

00:53:51.200 Because if you were being smart as the Iranians, that's a fight that you're doomed to lose,

00:53:58.000 which is the military physical fight.

00:54:00.080 There's no way you're going to beat the Goliath that is America.

00:54:03.560 It doesn't matter what they do.

00:54:05.300 And any type of escalation will mean further punishment.

00:54:09.380 But that would be the smart option, wouldn't it?

00:54:13.260 Well, so here we are at the contradiction that we kind of began with, for me at least,

00:54:17.120 which is that on the one hand, we've been told for so long that, OK, North Korea has

00:54:21.940 proven safe with nukes, India, Pakistan, all these other countries, but not Iran.

00:54:26.480 Iran can't have nukes because the minute they can get one, they're going to use it,

00:54:29.220 even though they even if they know it's going to mean their own obliteration, because

00:54:31.920 they're such wild, death loving, fanatical, fundamentalist, apocalyptic cultists.

00:54:38.000 And then on the other hand, you know, the argument that we're kind of relying on now

00:54:41.620 is, look, Iran is a rational actor who which which operates in its enlightened self-interest.

00:54:47.520 And although they have the capability to close the strait or to attack U.S. assets in the region

00:54:53.880 that will send oil prices skyrocketing, we hope they don't and we think they won't because

00:54:58.380 they know that that would invite a even greater and further American attack.

00:55:03.260 You have Trump in there who's liable to do anything.

00:55:05.360 He's far less predictable than previous presidents.

00:55:07.120 And I do think that's how Iran is thinking.

00:55:09.760 But if Iran were this fundamentalist, apocalyptic cult that we're always told on the nuclear side

00:55:15.880 they are, they wouldn't be thinking this way.

00:55:18.040 They would be thinking, this is our jihad.

00:55:20.240 This is the thing we are meant God sent us to die for against the non-Muslims.

00:55:25.580 And they've attacked us.

00:55:27.000 And now we have to go die in order to cause as much damage as possible.

00:55:30.620 And I don't think anyone expects the Iranians to do that.

00:55:33.700 But I think, like I said before, I think the problem is we put Iran in the position.

00:55:38.480 And this is why I believe there are a lot of people who told Trump, look, all you're

00:55:43.220 going to have to do is just bomb a few nuclear sites.

00:55:45.100 It's going to take one night and then you're done.

00:55:46.960 No more U.S. involvement, knowing that full well, that doing that entails a great risk,

00:55:53.340 if not a likelihood, that it's going to drag the American military further into this conflict

00:55:59.220 because now Iran is basically obligated to respond in some way against the United States.

00:56:04.100 I'm interested in what you guys think Iran would and should do in this case.

00:56:09.860 Well, we'll find out.

00:56:11.420 Nobody knows.

00:56:12.040 But the interesting thing that I think you make some very good points about the potential

00:56:15.820 risks.

00:56:16.280 And I've said this when I've discussed this issue with other people, too.

00:56:19.700 The only thing I have that bothers me always is it seems to me that people who lay out the

00:56:25.160 position that you do, they kind of lay out the risks of the thing that they don't want

00:56:30.220 to happen, but they never really talk about the risks of doing things the other way.

00:56:35.340 And that's where I think, if we're being honest, we would say that both options involved a lot

00:56:39.440 of risk.

00:56:40.000 The risk of Iran continuing to enrich uranium, for example, and continuing to fund proxies

00:56:45.680 also involves all sorts of other risks, both for the region and elsewhere.

00:56:50.160 And, you know, for example, you mentioned the point about how there are lots of other

00:56:54.120 countries that have nuclear weapons and they haven't used them, etc.

00:56:58.820 But the difference is that, you know, we don't just like, first of all, I don't think any

00:57:03.100 of us, the three of us would want North Korea or Pakistan or lots of other countries, frankly,

00:57:07.560 to have nuclear weapons if that could be prevented today.

00:57:10.440 So there's still a good reason to not want Iran to get a nuke.

00:57:14.100 But more than that, we know that, for example, Mohammed Bill Saman, MBS of Saudi Arabia, he

00:57:19.700 said he is the one that's comparing Iran to Nazi Germany.

00:57:23.200 And he is the one that said, well, if Iran gets a nuclear weapon, then we are going to

00:57:27.400 have to.

00:57:27.740 So part of the reason that people want to prevent Iran getting close to getting nukes is that

00:57:33.680 it destabilizes the entire region.

00:57:35.860 And suddenly you've got several countries with nuclear weapons.

00:57:38.620 And I think that's a very realistic thing that's also a massive concern, don't you think?

00:57:44.320 I would definitely prefer that no countries that don't have nuclear weapons get them.

00:57:48.880 I would prefer no further proliferation.

00:57:50.840 That would be safer for the world.

00:57:51.860 I'd actually prefer that some countries, all countries that have them, give them up.

00:57:55.080 But let's just begin with the one about preventing the ones that don't have it from getting them.

00:57:59.280 So I'm absolutely with you on that.

00:58:01.900 This is, I get your point, which is that you can talk about the risks of the war, but then

00:58:07.140 you also have to talk about the risks of not doing anything, which is that Iran proliferates,

00:58:10.480 gets a nuclear weapon, destabilizes the region, incentivizes other countries, including Saudi

00:58:14.960 Arabia, to then proliferate as well.

00:58:16.780 I think what has happened, though, is the opposite, namely that we have created a framework

00:58:22.640 in the world where every country sees if you have nuclear weapons, either nobody will

00:58:29.660 mess with you or if somebody does mess with you, they're going to be extremely careful.

00:58:33.460 We just saw India and Pakistan, two countries that have hated each other forever, deep-seated

00:58:37.960 hatreds that go back a long time.

00:58:41.340 And they had a very real war, but it ended pretty quickly.

00:58:45.000 They were pretty careful about not escalating it further because both sides have nuclear

00:58:48.680 weapons and it creates a deterrence.

00:58:51.040 And what we have seen over the last 25 years is that if you don't have a nuclear weapon,

00:58:56.100 the United States is very willing to bomb you, to invade you, to overthrow your government.

00:59:01.880 And Gaddafi being the number one example where he was developing nuclear weapons and other

00:59:10.620 kinds of weapons because he was concerned about attacks, he was convinced to give them

00:59:14.340 all up with promises of reintegration.

00:59:16.220 And 10 years later, not only was he deposed, but he got raped to death by a mob in the street

00:59:20.780 after NATO bombed that country for a long time because they didn't have nuclear weapons.

00:59:24.020 So my concern is that if I were Iran and I just got attacked by Israel in a way that,

00:59:30.540 at least from a UN perspective, wasn't a legal war, I didn't attack Israel first, I wasn't

00:59:34.720 threatening to attack Israel.

00:59:36.040 I get the whole point about proxies, but I'm just saying, if I were Iran, my thinking now

00:59:41.360 would be, well, we probably should have gotten nuclear weapons when we had the chance because

00:59:45.680 had we got nuclear weapons, then this wouldn't be happening.

00:59:49.540 No country would mess with us.

00:59:51.480 And that's the concern I have is we're incentivizing proliferation through aggressive action against

00:59:57.400 countries that are vulnerable precisely because they don't have a nuclear weapons program.

01:00:02.040 So how does that square with your position to supporting Ukraine?

01:00:06.060 Because by that very logic, Ukraine should be pursuing a nuclear weapon as rapidly as possible

01:00:10.660 so that it can't get invaded.

01:00:12.040 Well, I mean, I think a lot of people in Ukraine are thinking that.

01:00:16.160 I think a lot of people in Ukraine are thinking we got persuaded to give up our nuclear weapons

01:00:19.940 that we had because of promises for security guarantees.

01:00:24.720 And as it turns out, if we if we had nuclear weapons, Russia wouldn't be doing to our country

01:00:29.320 what they're doing to our country now.

01:00:30.520 I think that that's exactly right.

01:00:32.200 I think when.

01:00:33.160 So wouldn't that have been a very good reason to support Ukraine's defense so that other

01:00:37.780 countries don't feel like in order to be safe in the world, they need nuclear weapons

01:00:41.380 because their allies will actually help them?

01:00:43.600 No, I don't.

01:00:44.800 I mean, the reason why I don't think that it was a good idea for the West to support

01:00:49.440 Ukraine, but obviously never be willing to go and fight in Ukraine, go put troops in

01:00:54.780 Ukraine, is that all it was going to do was ensure a prolongation of that war and the

01:00:59.600 destruction of Ukraine, the elimination of men for an entire generation.

01:01:03.120 Ukraine has paid by far the biggest price and they're going to end up losing territory.

01:01:07.300 Certainly have lost 25 percent of their country already, easily could end up losing more.

01:01:11.440 I think it was a terrible thing from the perspective of the West and Ukraine.

01:01:15.640 But as it pertains to the nuclear weapons point, I think, yes, every time one country

01:01:21.380 attacks and invades another where that one country has nuclear weapons and the other

01:01:24.740 doesn't, it sends a signal to other countries, which is, OK, you should be getting nuclear

01:01:30.680 weapons yourself.

01:01:32.560 Glenn, I wanted to talk.

01:01:34.060 It's a bit of a side issue, but, you know, we could you know, we're coming at this from

01:01:38.000 very different perspectives and that's why it's great to have you on the show to hash

01:01:41.440 them out.

01:01:42.700 But one thing that I messaged you a while ago because, you know, you and I kind of go

01:01:47.160 back at it on Twitter every now and again and sometimes certainly I've said things I

01:01:51.820 don't mean.

01:01:52.560 But I did say to you, messaging you privately, that whatever else has gone on, I do respect

01:01:57.260 your journalistic integrity.

01:01:59.060 You're someone who's willing to criticize the administration today and back them up the

01:02:03.540 next day and vice versa.

01:02:05.740 So I wanted to talk to you about a more journalistic issue very briefly, which is I saw that you

01:02:11.400 did a very long video covering Tucker Carlson's interview with Ted Cruz and discussing the tactics

01:02:18.220 that Ted Cruz that Tucker used in that interview where he effectively caught out Ted Cruz not

01:02:24.380 knowing some particularly fairly basic facts about Iran.

01:02:28.180 And you seem to think that that was a legitimate thing for him to do and not some kind of got

01:02:33.760 you.

01:02:34.040 Do I have that right?

01:02:35.560 Yeah, for sure.

01:02:36.320 Here's here's the point that I think Tucker was making.

01:02:38.660 I mean, if Tucker had asked Ted Cruz, like, what's the how many people live in Iran and

01:02:44.100 he got it wrong by like 10 million one way or the other, like 80 million, 100 million or

01:02:47.200 even like 60 million, 120, like in the range of understanding that it's a big country relative

01:02:52.920 to most other countries.

01:02:54.040 The much important, more important point is something I've said.

01:02:56.640 And I'm not a U.S. senator responsible for voting on wars probably 150 times or not more

01:03:01.420 in the last year is that Iran has more than three times the population that Iraq had when

01:03:06.420 we attacked it.

01:03:07.320 And everyone knows how that war went.

01:03:09.260 That's something you absolutely have to know, not just in order to decide.

01:03:13.200 I mean, obviously, the size of a country is crucial for understanding what the implications

01:03:18.300 are if you attack them and bomb them and go to war with them.

01:03:21.060 I mean, the size of Russia relative to the size of Ukraine has been a major factor in

01:03:28.040 how that conflict has gone.

01:03:29.320 Just the fact that Russians can replenish their troops for a lot longer than Ukraine has simply

01:03:34.400 because there's so many more people.

01:03:36.040 Imagine voting on whether to fund that war without having any understanding of what the

01:03:42.520 size of Russia is relative to Ukraine.

01:03:44.340 I mean, you have no competence to do that.

01:03:49.560 And we're not talking about obscure, you know, like, hey, what's 130 miles due north of Tehran

01:03:55.260 in some little village?

01:03:56.100 We're talking about just a very basic fact that you would learn if all you ever did was

01:03:59.640 read Wikipedia.

01:04:01.000 And I think one of the problems with the Iraq war, and if you go back and look at, as I

01:04:05.180 did recently, some of the 2002-2003 discourse, was there were a lot of promises being made

01:04:10.420 about how the Iraq war would go once we removed the central government under Saddam Hussein

01:04:16.280 that were based on utter and complete ignorance of a very complex, you know, long-developed

01:04:23.760 society on the other side of the world that American policymakers just didn't understand.

01:04:28.780 And Ted Cruz is-

01:04:29.360 Well, what's interesting on that is that it was Israel that was actually warning about

01:04:34.000 what would happen in the aftermath of that invasion.

01:04:36.980 And they were saying, you're going to cause a civil war.

01:04:38.900 Well, be very careful, interestingly enough.

01:04:41.420 Ariel Sharon was very, very insistent on trying to get that message across to the Americans.

01:04:46.160 But the reason I ask you is, it seems to me, like I said at the time, I think two things

01:04:52.400 should be true at once.

01:04:53.100 It was not a good look for Ted Cruz.

01:04:55.080 But at the same time, I think anyone who comments on these issues could be caught out

01:04:59.220 in this sort of way.

01:05:00.320 Like, would you be able to rattle off the full list of Iran's neighbors, including the ones

01:05:05.620 across the Persian Gulf off the top of your head?

01:05:07.840 I mean, I've talked before about, I just talked before about the two biggest and most important

01:05:12.560 neighbors from the perspective of geopolitics that the U.S. tried to induce regime change

01:05:17.400 in.

01:05:17.780 But no, I couldn't.

01:05:19.400 And that, but I'm not-

01:05:20.920 Right.

01:05:21.500 But you were commenting on this issue with exactly the level of authority as Ted Cruz.

01:05:25.800 But this is the difference, is being sleep-deprived messes with everything.

01:05:31.180 Reaction time, memory, decision-making, even your emotions.

01:05:34.960 It's like walking around legally drunk.

01:05:37.460 And the long-term effects, just as bad as smoking.

01:05:40.740 Most people reach for melatonin.

01:05:42.920 But here's the problem.

01:05:43.860 Melatonin is a hormone.

01:05:46.240 And most supplements give you doses 10 to 50 times higher than your body naturally produces.

01:05:52.180 That's why you wake up groggy.

01:05:53.920 Your sleep gets worse over time, and your body stops making melatonin on its own.

01:05:58.960 That's why I use Evening Being by Verso.

01:06:02.320 It's melatonin-free, using clinically studied ingredients to help you fall asleep faster,

01:06:07.620 stay asleep longer, and get more deep-end REM sleep, without messing with your hormones.

01:06:14.380 I've been taking it myself, and honestly, I'm falling asleep faster,

01:06:18.200 and my mind actually switches off at night, which used to be a battle.

01:06:22.340 Shut it.

01:06:23.000 Of course it did.

01:06:24.120 Head to V-E-R dot S-O, and use code TRIGGER to get 15% off your first order.

01:06:31.720 Or click the link in the description.

01:06:34.180 That's V-E-R dot S-O, code TRIGGER.

01:06:39.420 But this is the difference, is it's precisely because of my humility

01:06:43.520 about understanding other societies and not understanding societies

01:06:47.620 that I don't think that I want to, or that the U.S. government should go around the world

01:06:52.060 interfering in and manipulating and trying to change the governments of other countries

01:06:55.380 that we don't understand.

01:06:56.960 I don't think we should be doing that.

01:06:58.440 But what you're talking about is a decision that has to be made either way, right?

01:07:04.500 We either do this intervention or we don't.

01:07:07.860 And in order to make that decision, you have to understand the region

01:07:11.160 in order to make either of those decisions.

01:07:13.520 Even if you advocate your position, which is non-intervention,

01:07:17.180 you have to understand the region.

01:07:18.720 You have to understand which countries to the west of Iran,

01:07:21.480 which countries to the east of Iran,

01:07:23.220 how it's surrounded, the regional dynamics.

01:07:26.000 And you're saying, as one of the most prominent journalists commenting on this,

01:07:29.460 that you don't, and yet you think it's fair for Tucker to behave that way with Ted Cruz?

01:07:33.460 I mean, first of all, what I'm saying is I may not be able to name every border and country

01:07:37.820 if there's a country that has a border,

01:07:39.260 but I've talked about the geography of Iran relative to their two most important neighbors

01:07:44.900 and why they feel threatened, the surrounding of the base,

01:07:46.920 where they are in the region,

01:07:47.900 and the proximity to places like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates,

01:07:51.520 to Qatar, to the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, all the geocertitude.

01:07:55.040 I'm just saying, if you ask me a trivial test, I may not be able to name everything.

01:07:58.500 But it's not trivial.

01:08:00.000 Glenn, with all respect, I'm not trying to catch you out.

01:08:02.160 I'm merely trying to apply the principles that you think is good journalism to you, right?

01:08:06.720 You're a very significant contributor to this debate,

01:08:10.920 and you think asking people about the region

01:08:13.860 and their in-depth knowledge of that region is important.

01:08:17.040 So what I'm saying is, wouldn't you expect somebody commenting at this level about this issue

01:08:22.880 to understand, to have a map of the region in their head and to be able to say,

01:08:27.160 look, Iraq is to the west of Iran, then you've got Turkey, then you've got Armenia,

01:08:31.480 then you've got Azerbaijan, then you've got Turkmenistan,

01:08:33.600 then you've got Afghanistan and Pakistan,

01:08:35.500 and then you've got the Gulf countries across the Gulf.

01:08:37.700 Like, that's pretty basic stuff.

01:08:40.480 And I'm not trying to catch you out.

01:08:43.320 I get your point.

01:08:44.200 I'm not trying to say you should have known this,

01:08:46.760 but I am applying your standard of journalism to you,

01:08:50.040 which I think, I do think this has got your bullshit personally,

01:08:53.620 and that's why I'm kind of testing you out.

01:08:55.420 No, I understand your point.

01:08:57.640 I think of the seven or eight neighboring countries that you've mentioned,

01:09:01.100 I've mentioned five of them of the seven or eight,

01:09:03.820 five of the seven or eight in just the discussion,

01:09:06.080 the course of the discussion that we've had,

01:09:07.900 including its importance to Iran,

01:09:09.280 it's the fact that they're bordering countries, neighboring countries.

01:09:12.760 So I do have a good in-depth knowledge of the geography of that region.

01:09:18.260 But if I was Tucker, I would nail you on this, right?

01:09:23.160 I would say, but you didn't know that Armenia is to the northwest,

01:09:26.340 and you forgot this country.

01:09:28.120 Well, you don't know anything.

01:09:29.380 That's what Tucker did, right?

01:09:30.540 No, I don't think that he did.

01:09:31.900 First of all, I think that if you are somebody who is advocating that the United States go in

01:09:38.660 and change the government of that country,

01:09:41.460 which is what Ted Cruz is advocating,

01:09:43.160 he's not just one of the people saying we should be limited to bombing their nuclear facilities,

01:09:46.960 he wants to engineer and foster regime change in Iran using U.S. military and intelligence assets,

01:09:52.520 that in order to advocate something to that level of interference,

01:09:56.400 the only conceivable way that you can know what the likely consequences of that would be

01:10:02.820 is if you have a basic understanding of the country.

01:10:06.480 And what I also said is that have he been wrong,

01:10:10.600 but like wrong, you know, by 10 million or 20 million or whatever,

01:10:14.500 which I think is the same thing as saying,

01:10:16.380 oh, I can name five or six of the bordering countries,

01:10:18.720 but not the seventh and eighth,

01:10:19.760 which are relatively small and unimportant countries

01:10:22.780 that don't matter that much to you strategically,

01:10:24.980 nobody would have had a problem.

01:10:26.660 The problem is that he had no idea like what the range was.

01:10:30.480 It wasn't until Tucker said 90 million and he said,

01:10:32.940 oh, it could be 80 or 100.

01:10:34.180 Had Tucker said the population size is 20 million,

01:10:37.440 he would have said, fine, what's the difference?

01:10:38.940 15 million, 30.

01:10:39.760 He had no idea about the size of the country,

01:10:42.600 probably the most basic fact.

01:10:44.140 But I do think you ought to know a lot more about a regime and a country.

01:10:48.060 If you're advocating interfering in that country from the other side of the world,

01:10:51.460 then you have as a responsibility,

01:10:53.160 if your view is we shouldn't interfere in that country,

01:10:56.100 we shouldn't manipulate that country precisely because it's on the other side of the world.

01:11:00.140 We don't know nearly as much about that country as we do our own.

01:11:03.320 And I'll just give you one example.

01:11:04.680 You know, I've lived in Brazil for 20 years.

01:11:06.780 For the first 10 or 12 years,

01:11:09.220 even though, you know,

01:11:10.280 I was a prominent journalist like covering the United States,

01:11:13.140 and I was often asked,

01:11:14.140 like, why aren't you weighing in more on Brazilian politics?

01:11:16.300 You're here, you have a platform.

01:11:17.520 I would always say,

01:11:19.080 I don't feel like I have a sophisticated enough understanding.

01:11:22.060 It took me, you know, 13, 14, 15 years before I felt like I understood this country enough to

01:11:28.000 comment on its politics.

01:11:30.120 That's just a basic humility.

01:11:32.480 And so I do think that part of why we should be a lot more humble and a lot more avert,

01:11:39.420 have a greater aversion to interfering in countries on the other side of the world,

01:11:42.960 is because we don't understand them well.

01:11:45.300 We don't, they're very complex histories and societies there,

01:11:48.780 that there's no way we can understand enough to

01:11:50.840 understand what the consequences of our actions are going to be if we intervene.

01:11:55.300 No, I certainly agree with you on that.

01:11:58.000 But what I'm also saying is the non-intervention option requires

01:12:01.120 exactly the same level of expertise for people to express a strong opinion.

01:12:05.500 Would you not agree with that?

01:12:06.720 I do, I do think advocating any position requires a good understanding of what you're talking about.

01:12:14.100 Right.

01:12:14.280 But I think there's an extra burden on people who want to go in and change the country,

01:12:20.620 fix the country, change the government.

01:12:22.720 Because it would be like, you know, if I, I don't know, if like the plumbing in my house didn't work,

01:12:29.500 I expect the person who's coming in, who's here to intervene in it and fix it,

01:12:33.380 to know a lot more about it than I do,

01:12:35.040 saying to someone, I'm going to stay out of this because I don't know anything about it.

01:12:38.260 I think that there's a much greater, are you going to fly a plane?

01:12:41.300 You should know a lot more about the plane than someone who doesn't.

01:12:43.760 That's not, that's not, that's not the right example.

01:12:45.560 The right example would be you call two plumbers and one of them says,

01:12:49.120 we don't need to do anything about this problem.

01:12:50.920 And the other one says, no, no, we've got to do this.

01:12:53.080 And you are applying a different standard to them because the problem exists, right?

01:12:56.940 Everyone recognizes IAEA comes out with a report saying 60% enrichment, right?

01:13:02.320 That immediately puts the world into having to make a decision either way.

01:13:06.780 And whoever is trying to fix that problem, either by not doing anything or by doing something,

01:13:12.240 has to have a high level of expertise and being able to understand that problem, right?

01:13:16.820 Like, I explained to you what the relevance is of the population size in terms of like the U.S. ability.

01:13:21.300 But what's the relevance of Azerbaijan being a bordering country to...

01:13:28.120 Well, if you take Tucker's second question to Ted Cruz, the second largest minority in Iran are Azerbaijanis.

01:13:35.620 So the fact that there's a neighboring country with a very strong interest would be very relevant.

01:13:39.760 But what about, do you know the ethnic breakdown of Ukraine?

01:13:42.520 First of all, I'm an advocate of not intervening in Ukraine.

01:13:47.980 But I know in the East, there's a lot of ethnic Russians who have a great deal of...

01:13:52.440 So what's the breakdown?

01:13:53.400 The exact percentage?

01:13:54.280 I don't know.

01:13:54.980 I mean, I could pull up Wikipedia and know.

01:13:56.540 So you're Ted Cruz.

01:13:57.980 You're the same.

01:13:58.800 Nope.

01:13:59.620 Again, Konstantin, I'm not somebody who's saying that we ought to go into Ukraine and fix Ukraine.

01:14:05.400 But you're saying we ought not to go into Ukraine.

01:14:07.200 But again, I have a rough understanding, like not to the number.

01:14:11.200 And that's why I said, had Ted Cruz said, oh, it's 75 million or it's 110 million...

01:14:15.780 So give me a rough breakdown of Ukraine's ethnic diversity.

01:14:20.520 You mean in terms of like ethnic Russians and ethnic Ukrainians in Polish?

01:14:24.180 Yeah, the same question that Tucker asked Ted Cruz.

01:14:27.020 The same question.

01:14:27.620 Again, I'm not the one who wants to go and intervene there.

01:14:29.600 And that was Tucker's point is you want to go topple the government.

01:14:31.800 You have a responsibility to know what the basic facts about the country.

01:14:35.220 But I don't know.

01:14:35.560 I think it's like something like 25 to 30 percent are ethnic Russians.

01:14:38.520 The majority of them are Slavic or Ukrainian.

01:14:41.620 And then there's some Poles.

01:14:42.820 Then there's some other Eastern European people of other Eastern European lineage.

01:14:46.960 I mean, that's a rough breakdown.

01:14:48.060 I mean, you're not massively far off.

01:14:49.740 It's more like 17 percent to 77, something like that.

01:14:52.580 I was very close.

01:14:53.820 And that's what I'm saying.

01:14:54.560 Had Ted Cruz, like I have a good understanding of Ukraine.

01:14:57.980 I don't have numbers off the top of my head.

01:14:59.560 Had Ted Cruz known that Iran is a very big country relative to other countries in the region,

01:15:03.900 that it was in that general range, hadn't even been off by 30 million.

01:15:07.120 No one would have minded.

01:15:08.520 The fact that he had no idea and is an advocate of regime change is what made that so relevant.

01:15:13.980 OK, Glenn, I'm glad actually that we've mentioned the word regime change, the words regime change

01:15:18.740 so many times, because this is what I actually wanted to talk to you about.

01:15:22.020 How many people in the in the Republican Party at the moment do you think are advocating

01:15:28.720 and chomping at the bit to institute regime change in Iran?

01:15:33.880 I mean, I do I do think there's some ambiguity surrounding this.

01:15:37.220 Even Donald Trump yesterday spoke about regime change, but he didn't necessarily say,

01:15:41.740 I want to go in and forcibly remove the government the way we did in Iraq.

01:15:45.460 So what is it that he meant by that?

01:15:46.660 I think he kept it deliberately vague.

01:15:48.280 I think most Republicans will say, yeah, I think it'd be good for us if Iran was governed

01:15:54.600 by a different set of people with a different set of views.

01:15:58.120 We would love to have the installation of the new installation of the Shah of Iran's son,

01:16:02.560 because he was a U.S. and Israeli puppet.

01:16:04.960 And that's why we supported him and propped him up.

01:16:07.020 We would, of course, love that.

01:16:08.400 The question is, what are you willing to do to make that happen?

01:16:11.940 And again, I would point to the the the example of Syria, which I think comes closest,

01:16:17.660 where we had an official policy of regime change of removing the Assad regime.

01:16:22.060 And what ended up happening is that country got completely destroyed and destabilized.

01:16:26.700 And it ended up with a leader who we had a 10 million dollar bounty on their head, who

01:16:30.120 had a lifelong affiliation with Al Qaeda.

01:16:33.220 So I think I think most Republicans would say they want regime change.

01:16:37.380 What they're willing to do to make that happen, I think, is unclear.

01:16:40.380 We're probably going to be having that debate very soon.

01:16:43.960 Because you would hope and I'll just put my cards.

01:16:47.000 I am incredibly anti regime change.

01:16:49.200 I think the Ayatollah and his regime is is awful, barbaric, all the words that you want

01:16:55.360 to use.

01:16:55.980 And I fully support the Iranian people wanting to overthrow their government.

01:17:00.240 But that's what I mean.

01:17:01.560 I support the Iranian people.

01:17:04.160 I I find it incredibly depressing that there are not that the vast majority of people in

01:17:11.240 the U.S. government would not have learned their lesson from Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, et

01:17:17.040 cetera, et cetera.

01:17:18.920 Right.

01:17:19.400 And I think and this gets back to the point I was just talking with Constine about is.

01:17:24.360 I think one of the problems when you say I want to go and have regime change another

01:17:29.760 country, I want to interfere with them.

01:17:30.900 And Constine's point about Ariel Sharon, I think, is a good one.

01:17:35.040 Benjamin Netanyahu did come to Congress in 2002 and assure his word was guarantee the American

01:17:40.640 people in the U.S. Congress that if we change the regime of Saddam, it would spread democracy

01:17:44.660 and stability and peace all throughout the region.

01:17:46.920 That is what he told the U.S. Congress.

01:17:49.540 If you take out Saddam, Saddam's regime, I guarantee you that it will have enormous positive

01:17:57.060 reverberations on the region.

01:17:59.180 And I think that people sitting right next door in Iran, young people and many others

01:18:04.400 will say the time of such regimes, of such just spots is gone.

01:18:09.260 There is a new age.

01:18:10.220 Something new is happening.

01:18:11.100 But I do think that the Israelis have a better understanding of Iraqi society because they're

01:18:17.000 much closer to much closer to it.

01:18:19.420 They understand it better.

01:18:20.540 It's much more in their interest.

01:18:22.040 Same with Iran than the United States is on the other side of the world.

01:18:25.480 And it's one of the problems that we've had in trying to go into other countries and shape

01:18:29.940 them and manipulate them to our own liking.

01:18:31.940 We have done and are doing various programs to facilitate regime change in Iran.

01:18:38.740 Like I said, we fund anti-government groups and agitators, including the MEK, which Israel

01:18:45.540 funds as well.

01:18:46.760 If there were some sort of collapse of the central authority in Iran, MI6, the CIA, the

01:18:53.380 Mossad would all be in there backing the forces that they want to.

01:18:57.400 So probably would Turkey.

01:18:58.880 So might Saudi Arabia.

01:19:00.580 There would be all sorts of involvement.

01:19:02.040 This would not be a revolution of the Iranian people, despite how many of them disliked

01:19:07.600 this government, just like happened in Syria.

01:19:09.940 I mean, there were a lot of Syrians who rose up to overthrow Assad.

01:19:13.040 But had it not been for the constant bombing, the dirty war, the CIA backing of various factions,

01:19:18.600 the Israeli backing of various factions, the Assad regime would not have collapsed.

01:19:23.020 So we are doing things to interfere in Iran already.

01:19:26.940 And this is what I think is the problem is that if you're going to do that, you basically

01:19:31.480 need to study Iran, be a scholar in Iran.

01:19:34.360 But to say, you know what, that's not our society.

01:19:37.300 There's no way for us to have an expertise in Iran sufficient to successfully and effectively

01:19:42.120 remove their government, understand the consequences.

01:19:45.040 That I don't think takes as much understanding.

01:19:47.060 That's a humility about what you don't understand about a country that I think is very healthy and

01:19:50.780 that we're lacking.

01:19:51.740 And I agree with you completely.

01:19:53.160 What's the regime change that ended up being good either for the West or for the people

01:19:58.840 of that country that the United States has sponsored or favored over the last 25 years?

01:20:02.600 It's very difficult to think of one.

01:20:05.100 Because I do wonder, I don't think Trump can justify to the MAGA base putting boots on the

01:20:12.560 ground.

01:20:13.320 But I don't think anyone's considering doing that either, right?

01:20:15.800 Is that fair?

01:20:16.880 Yeah, you could you could do regime change just through airstrikes, right?

01:20:19.500 I mean, we, you know, we had we didn't have boots on the ground, per se, in Syria, but

01:20:23.480 we had a lot of U.S.

01:20:24.720 We had a full-on ground war on the ground, intelligence agents, some military bases, but it wasn't like

01:20:28.700 a full-on ground war.

01:20:30.380 So I can't imagine Trump authorizing, say, an invasion of Iran.

01:20:34.500 But you could destabilize a country and destroy its government through airstrikes.

01:20:40.280 You could kill its leaders.

01:20:41.440 You could, you know, make it ungovernable.

01:20:43.600 Well, speaking of the MAGA base, Glenn, what's your assessment of the politics of all of

01:20:48.760 this?

01:20:49.040 Because it's always sad to talk about the politics of this stuff, but we kind of have

01:20:52.380 to.

01:20:53.440 You know, if you if you go on social media, you might get the impression that, you know,

01:20:58.920 that the MAGA base is fracturing and splitting into tiny little pieces.

01:21:02.920 But that isn't my sense of where America is at at the moment.

01:21:07.040 What's your what's your perspective?

01:21:08.320 I totally agree with you.

01:21:11.680 Oftentimes, X or other forms of social media are accurate reflections of what the society

01:21:17.960 at large is thinking.

01:21:19.020 I also think, as we've seen with these, you know, sort of podcasters led by Joe Rogan

01:21:24.020 and others, that there is a much more diffuse system of how influence functions, how opinion

01:21:33.160 making works.

01:21:34.320 So what happens on X may be unrepresentative, but it can ultimately, you know, kind of trickle

01:21:40.420 down and start changing how people think, because these people are people who have built

01:21:44.120 up credibility.

01:21:45.800 But at the end of the day, I think it's President Trump's party and especially Republicans will

01:21:50.980 be very inclined to be loyal to what President Trump does to the point that you've seen a lot

01:21:55.560 of these big MAGA influencers who let me fix this dog issue.

01:22:00.940 Or yeah, yeah, to the point where you've seen these kind of big MAGA influencers spend the

01:22:06.920 last two months, three months banging the table.

01:22:09.280 This is not what we voted for.

01:22:10.680 We don't want involvement in a war.

01:22:12.160 This is not a war with Iran.

01:22:13.800 And the minute President Trump starts involving the U.S., it kind of starts retreating and

01:22:18.540 saying, I trust President Trump as long as it's just this and he does more as long

01:22:22.760 as it's just that.

01:22:23.840 I don't think this is going to fracture the MAGA base at all.

01:22:26.160 I think the MAGA base is a base that is primarily loyal to Trump.

01:22:29.500 Some people have enough integrity to say, even though I'm part of MAGA, even though I support

01:22:33.640 President Trump, I'm going to criticize him when I think it's necessary.

01:22:38.160 But the broad population of people who voted for President Trump, I think, still trust President

01:22:42.540 Trump, still like him, are convinced by him.

01:22:46.420 And I think, as you said, Constantine, on that thing you did with Dave Smith on on Pierce

01:22:51.900 Morgan, it's not that hard to convince Americans to support bombing campaigns and wars against,

01:22:58.160 you know, demonized governments.

01:23:00.000 I put it in a slightly more favorable and also humorous way.

01:23:03.820 I don't think he did, because I remember agreeing with that and it wasn't that nuanced.

01:23:05.180 No, no, no.

01:23:05.640 What I said is Americans love winning and they like bombing.

01:23:10.040 And this is actually the question that I was going to put to you, because my sense is,

01:23:14.780 politically, this has obviously been a big decision for President Trump.

01:23:18.080 And the way I see it could kind of go two ways from here.

01:23:20.520 One, this intervention is successful.

01:23:24.140 The Iranian, you know, counterstrike is, if it happens at all, not particularly significant.

01:23:31.140 There is no boots on the ground.

01:23:33.020 Maybe there is no regime change.

01:23:34.780 Or if there is, it's kind of like successful.

01:23:36.820 Someone takes over.

01:23:37.800 There's no civil war.

01:23:38.860 That's one option.

01:23:39.840 In which case, President Trump's popularity is going to go stratospheric, I would imagine.

01:23:44.860 The other option is this becomes a much more involved affair.

01:23:47.940 The regime collapses.

01:23:48.860 There's a brutal civil war, in which case this will be the albatross around his neck.

01:23:53.540 Do you share that view?

01:23:54.720 Yeah, I'm not so sure that even if it goes best case scenario, that it's going to mean

01:23:59.920 that President Trump's approval rating is going to become a stratospheric, because although

01:24:05.820 it's true that most Americans are willing to be OK with bombing campaigns, I really don't

01:24:09.740 think Americans are waking up every day thinking about Iran very much, caring about Iran very

01:24:13.940 much, feeling threatened by Iran very much, like we talked about before.

01:24:16.680 I think the big question is how their lives economically go.

01:24:20.060 We've seen that.

01:24:21.080 That's what the Democrats ignored for the most part throughout the Biden years, and they

01:24:25.040 paid a huge price from it.

01:24:26.520 So I don't think it's going to have a big effect on President Trump positively.

01:24:30.020 I don't think it has the potential for that.

01:24:31.860 There's also the question that we've kind of skipped over about whether this has really

01:24:36.620 set back the Iranian nuclear program in meaningful ways.

01:24:40.720 There's possibilities that all of this highly enriched uranium has been moved or some of

01:24:44.460 it has been moved. The U.S. government is acknowledging it doesn't know necessarily where

01:24:48.480 it is, so it could be elsewhere.

01:24:50.320 It could have the opposite effect of driving Iran to proliferate.

01:24:53.120 I just don't think Americans care that much about, like I said, they'll care if there's

01:24:57.680 a ground invasion. That, I think, will harm President Trump a lot, and that's why he won't

01:25:00.800 do it.

01:25:01.720 I think the question is, and the biggest risk to Trump politically, really, is if it starts

01:25:06.880 to spike the price of oil and therefore other commodities in meaningful ways.

01:25:11.640 And that I do think will happen if Iran engages in some of the retaliatory strikes that we've

01:25:16.240 discussed. That is what I think is the biggest danger politically to Trump.

01:25:19.420 But MAGA, this MAGA rift, it's really a small phenomenon at best.

01:25:26.260 And what would you say to, I mean, there are people who have been rumblings.

01:25:30.920 For instance, Marjorie Taylor Greene has, you know, one of Trump's biggest supporters

01:25:36.600 has come out and, you know, criticized, you know, the attacks on the Houthis, et cetera.

01:25:42.060 What would happen if a MAGA firebrand like Marjorie Taylor Greene came out and openly

01:25:48.620 criticized Trump? Do you think that is a possibility?

01:25:51.660 Because there have been rumblings.

01:25:53.120 Yeah, well, she's also been very, she was not only very vocal about the bombing of the

01:25:57.240 Houthis, which she opposed, but also very vocal about the bombing of Iran, which I have

01:26:01.360 to say, no matter what you think of Marjorie Taylor Greene, I really respect that a lot.

01:26:06.160 I think that's one of the things that enabled Constantine and I to have a kind of, you know,

01:26:09.420 positive discussion after a few months of some serious and very personal invective was

01:26:14.700 I saw Constantine on Joe Rogan making a, I thought, very compelling case about something

01:26:20.020 that I radically oppose, which is the sending of illegal immigrants, not just back to their

01:26:25.220 country, which is fine, but to a prison in El Salvador based on allegations of violent

01:26:30.060 gang membership with no due process of any kind and no opportunity to ever get out.

01:26:34.840 And despite my criticism of him, I posted it on X with his name and said, please listen

01:26:40.040 to this because I thought he made a very good point.

01:26:41.780 And I think the fact that I was criticizing Trump as well, despite having a good size MAGA

01:26:45.480 audience vehemently criticizing Trump, I think we both respect that.

01:26:48.520 So for Marjorie Taylor Greene, someone whose entire political identity is founded in alliance

01:26:56.960 with President Trump, a loyal member of the MAGA movement, to be so outspoken about crucial

01:27:02.860 decisions by President Trump to bomb the Houthis first and now to join the Israelis in the war

01:27:08.000 against Iran.

01:27:09.380 I really respect that.

01:27:11.180 I think it's not easy to do.

01:27:13.640 But I don't think at the end of the day that most Trump voters are inclined to follow

01:27:19.240 Marjorie Taylor Greene more than they are to follow Donald Trump.

01:27:22.660 I still think he has a very significant hold on Trump voters.

01:27:27.400 Well, there's a note of relief right there, Glenn, in that in a broader respect.

01:27:32.840 Anyway, listen, good to have you on the show.

01:27:35.300 We're going to ask you questions from our subscribers on Substack in a minute.

01:27:39.520 But before we do head over there, as you know, we always end with the same question, which

01:27:43.300 is what's the one thing we're not talking about that we should be?

01:27:45.700 I think the one thing that has disappeared from the public news cycle is that right before

01:27:51.900 the Israelis attacked Iran, President Trump stood up and pretty much retreated on what

01:27:56.780 I do think the MAGA base regards as his core commitment, way more than, you know, bombing

01:28:02.420 Iran or whatever, which is mass deportations by essentially saying, oh, I have a lot of friends

01:28:07.160 in the big ag industry, in the hotel industry who are saying that we cannot deport all these

01:28:13.720 people here illegally because they're such good workers working for industry, which,

01:28:17.620 of course, is why the United States never wanted to engage in mass deportation and wanted

01:28:21.660 immigration in the first place.

01:28:24.160 And what he ends up doing there, I think, has been kind of buried in a way that's been

01:28:29.860 favorable to him.

01:28:30.500 But at some point, we're going to get back to that.

01:28:32.660 And he's going to be stuck between the MAGA base that wants full deportations and the business

01:28:37.540 interest that he cares a lot about, insisting that their workers not be deported.

01:28:41.580 And we saw that similar debate right before he was inaugurated about H-1B visas, and he

01:28:46.340 ended up siding with Elon Musk and Vivek and Silicon Valley over his own base, saying,

01:28:50.480 yeah, we want to increase the number of H-1B visas and foreign workers who are skilled.

01:28:54.140 That, I think, is going to be a much bigger factor in whether the MAGA base stays loyal

01:28:59.460 to him than Iran.

01:29:00.320 And at some point, we're going to get back to that.

01:29:03.020 Glenn, thanks for coming on the show and for being such a great sport.

01:29:05.860 Make sure to head over to Substack, where you'll be able to ask Glenn your questions.

01:29:09.640 Do you believe anti-Zionism and anti-Semitism are different?

01:29:14.700 And how would you have acted differently in Israel's response to October 7th and Iran's

01:29:19.760 threats?

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TRIGGERnometry - June 25, 2025

DEBATE： Was Trump Right to Bomb Iran？ - Glenn Greenwald

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