00:00:54.140What has been your journey through life that leads you to be sitting here talking to us?
00:00:57.960Well, life is long, so I will not have enough time to discuss all my life.
00:01:03.600But essentially, I'm economist by training and I spend most of my time by being economist and writing economic stuff and advising on economic policy.
00:01:15.260It happened that I spent some time, about six years advising Mr. Putin as economic advisor to the Russian President.
00:01:25.360I also been a Russian Sherpa to the G8 club of the most developed and then democratic countries, at least.
00:01:37.460Some of them, some of them still democratic, one of them already not.
00:01:44.180In year 2005, after serious, series of serious conversations with my former boss, I resigned from both of my positions as Russian Sherpa and advisor.
00:02:01.200After that, in some time, I left Russia and now I'm living in the United States, working for the Center for Security Policy and also spent some time in Ukraine, working for the Ukrainian Institute for Future.
00:02:21.480Fantastic. Well, we are going to draw on your economic expertise in a moment, but one of the questions I think a lot of quote-unquote normal people are asking at the moment is they're trying to establish how rational Vladimir Putin is.
00:02:37.200There's a sort of a mad Vlad narrative that's emerging in the West among some people.
00:02:42.560So before we get into the economics, the sanctions, the war, the military situation, what is your assessment of President Putin's mental state?
00:02:51.080You've seen some of the speeches that he's given that seem quite belligerent and so on.
00:02:54.680What do you make of that conversation, first of all?
00:02:57.780I don't buy that description that you have mentioned before.
00:03:02.880Probably he's the most rational person that I've ever met in my life.
00:03:07.200And he continues to be, as so he's very calculated, he's very determined, and he's accurately balancing when he tried to portray himself as a so-called, if you use this word, mad.
00:03:23.440But that is just for producing some impression on weak people, especially my leaders of the Western countries.
00:03:30.340Some Western leaders like to be feared, and Mr. Putin knows that, and that is why he plays the game or plays the show with them.
00:03:42.160He pretends to be mad, and they pretend to be feared.
00:03:45.720So that's exactly what both sides would like to do.
00:03:51.620When Putin pretends to be mad and threatening with the ukulele blackmail, so some people, like President Biden, prefer to believe him, or some European leaders say,
00:04:05.780no, no, no, no, we cannot participate in any serious resistance to Mr. Putin.
00:04:12.140So that is why, okay, let's be fearful and do nothing.
00:04:57.100He's rational, but he's rational, not in our sense, so not in a sense of civilized people who would like to live in peace and democracy with the rule of law.
00:05:09.400He's a Russian in a sense of being imperialist.
00:05:13.220So he started to talk about Kyiv as his wet dreams, as we used to say in Russia, from year 2001, so already for 21 years.
00:05:25.640So, and for these more than two decades, he has written so many texts, he has made so many statements.
00:05:33.820All of them were devoted to Ukraine and to Kyiv.
00:05:38.420So that is why he never hid his intentions to establish control over Ukraine, to capture Kyiv.
00:05:46.560And his statement about the Ukraine does not right to be an independent state.
00:05:52.440So that is why it's not too hard to predict that he would do something.
00:05:57.420Moreover, he started to do something like these aggressive actions from year 2003.
00:06:05.940And that is why it was year 2003 in the Strip Tuzla in the Strait of Kerch.
00:06:11.480In year 2008, he proclaimed in conversation with George Bush Jr. that Ukraine does not have right to exist.
00:06:19.120In year 2014, he captured and occupied Crimea and started war in Donbass.
00:06:25.640And in year 2021, he published a long essay explaining that Ukraine should be put under his control.
00:06:34.660So it was rather hard not to see what he was doing and what he was saying.
00:06:40.260Andrei, I will never forgive myself if I don't ask this question, so I have to ask it.
00:06:45.440What was it like to work for Vladimir Putin?
00:06:48.740In the UK, we say, would you go for a pint with him?
00:06:52.240Is Vladimir Putin somebody that you could imagine going to a bar, drinking vodka with?
00:07:47.260The 10 years that the policies that I recommended were implemented, they were best period in the Russian economic history.
00:07:56.580Russian GDP doubled, Russian GDP per capita doubled and private consumption per capita grew 2.3 times within 10 years.
00:08:06.420So, this is one again, once again, it's the best economic growth period in the history of the country.
00:08:13.700So, that is why from the kind of the professional point of view, it was very productive for me.
00:08:22.000It was very productive for 145 million of Russian citizens.
00:08:27.300And the next question I was going to ask, you've kind of alluded to, do you feel that he was a competent leader?
00:08:35.340Let's forget about the war in Ukraine.
00:08:38.860But just when he came to power, do you think he was a competent leader the way you think he ran the country, was effective, particularly when you compare it with former leaders, certainly people like Yeltsin?
00:08:51.180You need to understand that I did not discuss with him how to attack Ukraine.
00:08:55.900How many bombers and banks did you put on that?
00:08:58.140Right, I am an economist and just, I talked to him on economic policies and state of economy.
00:09:05.600So, and I found him as a person who is ready to listen and to learn something that he didn't know.
00:09:15.640So, he was really rather unique in this regard compared to other Russian political leaders.
00:09:22.420And after that, I met many other leaders, including leaders from the West.
00:09:26.640And he was very unique in this regard because he tried to understand very complicated issues.
00:09:34.060And some of them he learned and some of them he started to implement in his actions, in his policies.
00:09:41.780And it is one of the explanations why that period, 10 years period, was such a good from the point of view of economic growth.
00:09:50.840So, it was his contribution to this result, no doubt.
00:09:57.500It's interesting that there seems, at least to me, and I'm sure you'll explain to me why I'm wrong, but there seems to be a contradiction in what you're saying.
00:10:05.200On the one hand, he is the guy who learns, who is smart, who, you know, listens to you and other people around him to deliver things for the Russian people.
00:10:16.300And he's very rational, yet at the same time, his imperialist ambitions have taken him to a war in Ukraine, which will hurt Russia, would you not say?
00:10:28.060Actually, I came to the same conclusion about 16 or 17 years ago.
00:10:33.360That is why I resigned from position of economic advisor.
00:10:37.020But initially, when I started to work in the presidential administration, it was quite a shock for me, because before that, I thought that those people who would like to have economic prosperity for our own citizens would not do imperialistic policies.
00:10:56.220And they would not destroy democratic constitutions, and they would not destroy rule of law.
00:11:03.400And to my great surprise, because Francis Fukuyama did not explain to us in his end of history, he saw that everything should be in one direction.
00:11:15.440Everyone who is supporting liberty or democracy and well-being of people, that's just one direction.
00:11:22.900And all evils will be on the other side.
00:11:27.700But I was able to see with my own eyes that somebody could be, or just a person with whom I was working for some time,
00:11:35.380at the same time is having intentions to improve living standards of people, to have economic roles.
00:11:44.860But at the same time, he's really very serious in destroying liberal institutions, democratic institutions, institutions of law, and after that, to start imperialistic wars at the same time.
00:12:01.260Let me ask you, Andrei, if I may, I asked you about NATO expansion, and we didn't quite address it.
00:12:06.520There are people like John Meyersheimer, or Vladimir Posner, or there are others who say the reason that this has happened is the West, particularly NATO, pushed closer to the borders of Russia.
00:12:20.100Vladimir Posner, for example, would say that Putin wanted to work with the West.
00:12:47.040You know, it's very interesting what you're asking for.
00:12:50.420And especially because these two presentations, two shows of both John Meyersheimer and Vladimir Posner, became a viral due to policies of YouTube.
00:13:03.620Because I saw both of those shows some time ago, when there was just several tens of thousands of people watched it.
00:13:12.720But after the policy of YouTube, that recommended everywhere and to everybody, the number of people who were forced to watch those shows rise up to 20 million or something like that.
00:13:26.880So that is why it's a particular policy of our platform, our YouTube platform, to force people to watch these two shows, which from my point of view are completely wrong.
00:13:38.420They are wrong in their assumptions, they are wrong in their attitudes.
00:13:44.160To be correct, I would say, both of them, at least John Meyersheimer is definitely, he belongs to the same class of thinkers who prefer to see empires in these worlds,
00:13:59.560who does not give the right of small nations, of small countries to be independent.
00:14:08.300He's thinking, and it's actually, it's a very, well, I would say, rather spread, rather popular view among some political thinkers,
00:14:17.160that not every country deserves to be independent.
00:14:20.660And there are some small countries that should go under the so-called umbrella of superpowers.
00:14:28.960Andrew, I'm sorry to interrupt, but isn't that true, though?
00:14:32.360I mean, look at the Cuban Missile Crisis, for example.
00:14:34.620Did Cuba really have sovereignty when the Soviet Union tried to move its nuclear missiles onto Cuba?
00:14:42.360The United States said, we don't care about your sovereignty, we care about our security.
00:14:46.980Isn't that, John Meyersheimer would argue, that's what Vladimir Putin is doing.
00:15:00.380So, and after, and it was actually mid of the Cold War.
00:15:07.340And in 1991, Cold War was officially declared finished.
00:15:11.800So, the Soviet Union disintegrated, was a part ceased to exist.
00:15:17.740And there was a possibility, actually, that was claimed by many people, including by Francis Fukuyama, whom I mentioned, and many others.
00:15:25.900But, okay, yes, during the Cold War, during the World War, that's a World War.
00:15:30.660And in many regions of the world, it was a hot war.
00:15:33.980So, after the finish of three World Wars, First, Second, and the Cold War, it is possible for small nations or medium-sized nations to be really independent, to have real sovereignty.
00:15:50.000So, that is why, if something happened in the past, okay, we can find many historical examples before the First World War, Second World War, and Cuba will be not the only one.
00:16:02.660But we are living in the 21st century, and nobody should use the instruments of the 19th century, or 18th century, or even the first half of the 20th century, against neighbors, against small countries.
00:16:15.280Why Ukraine, or any other country, could not live like Luxembourg, or Switzerland?
00:16:22.060Luxembourg and Switzerland are smaller nations than Ukraine.
00:16:25.120Nobody threaten Luxembourg and Switzerland from neighbors.
00:16:30.040Why Ukraine does not have the same right as Luxembourg?
00:16:32.780So, I'm just playing devil's advocate here, because emotionally, I agree with you very much.
00:16:37.900I do think that Ukraine should have the right to do and choose any direction that it wants.
00:16:43.180And I have family in Ukraine, and I want them to have the same freedoms and the same quality of life that I do here in London.
00:16:50.080But on the other hand, if what is perceived as a hostile power to the EU placed its nuclear missiles, or attempted to place its bases in Luxembourg, I think other EU countries would be concerned.
00:17:04.940All I'm getting at with you is, isn't it true to say that, of course, a country like Russia, which perceives the United States as a strategic adversary at best,
00:17:16.860placing its bases or placing its missiles on its borders is a concern.
00:17:23.120And when it happened with Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, etc., that was a little bit different, because those countries were never in the long history part of the Russian Empire.
00:17:32.660But Ukraine is different, because there's that kind of, you know, emotional element to it as well.
00:17:39.700No, but this is, if there is something that is quite opposite to what has been claimed by Devil's Advocate or Mr. Putin.
00:17:49.500Because essentially, Ukraine did not place nuclear missiles on its territory.
00:17:54.580There was nobody among Ukrainian politicians, among Ukrainian statements, among even the public leaders in Ukraine, who would ever suggest to placing, to deploy nuclear missiles on Ukraine that would threaten Moscow or Russia.
00:18:19.060Ukraine, in 1994, signed Budapest Memorandum, through which Ukraine removed all nuclear weapons that were exactly located on the Ukrainian territory and gave all nuclear weapons to Russia.
00:18:35.440So that is why, if there is a threat, there's a threat from Russia to Ukraine, not from Ukraine to Russia.
00:18:40.560And actually, there is a constitution of Ukraine, in which it stated very clear, there should be no foreign bases on Ukrainian territory.
00:18:48.560And there was only one foreign military bases based on the Ukrainian territory.
00:18:54.340It was a Russian Navy base in Sebastopol, in Crimea.
00:18:58.320So that is why, if there was any threat to anyone, it was a threat from Russia to Ukraine, not vice versa.
00:19:06.060And until the very last moment, Ukraine was never played any potential that Ukraine never invited United States or NATO to deploy nuclear missiles or to deploy U.S. troops on Ukrainian territory or deploy U.S. or NATO bases on Ukrainian territory.
00:19:26.980The majority of the Ukrainian population were against NATO membership until Putin attacked Ukraine in year 2014, occupying Crimea, occupied Sevastopol, started war in Donbass.
00:19:41.880So reaction of Ukraine to defend itself, it is a result of Putin's aggressive policy and his aggressions against Ukraine.
00:19:50.660Andrei, why is it that so many people in the West were shocked when he invaded and very few people predicted it?
00:20:03.560Because the West is living in different reality.
00:20:08.620Many, I would say, Western leaders, Western leaders, political leaders, and Western leaders in the sense of media and public opinion.
00:20:16.820They really decided that, OK, the lives that they are enjoying, especially in Europe and the Northern America over the last several decades, are so good that they prefer to forget or prefer not to see reality beyond Europe's borders or North American borders.
00:20:41.720And there are thugs and there are thugs in the world that are occupying the highest position in power in a number of countries.
00:20:49.260There are imperialists, they are aggressors, and they are using very different policies and different attitudes and different actions from those people who are living in Europe.
00:21:01.720Just people pretend to see that that part of the world does not exist, or if they would preach to some kind of good cause or so-called diplomacy, which means doing nothing, that would help to save thousands of lives from attacks of thugs and imperialists.
00:21:24.540That's just mistakes. And actually, by the way, you asked me before whether Mr. Putin is irrational and whether he understands what's going around the world.
00:21:35.840Mr. Putin understands very well what is going around the world, but many Western leaders do not.
00:21:42.420The next musical mega hit is here, the Neil Diamond musical, a beautiful noise, April 28th through June 7th, 2026, the Princess of Wales Theatre.
00:22:12.420Hey Francis, do you like podcasts and politics?
00:22:17.600No, mate. I'm a real man. I'm only interested in football, birds and fast cars.
00:22:23.780Last time you tried to drive a car, you had a panic attack when you got overtaken by a granny.
00:22:27.680She was driving very aggressively and used disgusting language for a woman of her age.
00:22:32.360Well, for those of you who do like podcasts and politics, then you have to check out The Lost Debate.
00:22:37.300It's a podcast and YouTube show for political eclectics who want to escape their media bubbles and engage in good faith with ideas from across the political spectrum.
00:22:46.560It's three friends from across the political spectrum discussing the big issues of the day.
00:22:51.980Ravi's a former Obama staffer and school principal, Corey's a former Fox Radio News host and Ricky's a New York Post columnist.
00:23:00.980Instead of being at each other's throats, they focus on bringing new perspectives to the table in constructive debates that sound less like crossfire and more like discussions between real people.
00:23:11.240They sound like us, apart from the whole sound like real people bit.
00:23:15.500That and they might actually know what they're talking about.
00:23:17.540Check The Lost Debate out on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.
00:23:22.680Do you think the West has done enough in order to support Ukraine?
00:23:27.200Or do you think that actually what they should do is they should have put up maybe stronger sanctions, maybe done more, particularly because maybe Putin will then advance and try and take other nations?
00:23:39.620The short answer is definitely no, and we can discuss what the West might do.
00:23:48.140One very basic principle actually is coming from our earlier discussion is that if tanks are already rolling, they cannot be stopped by sanctions.
00:24:02.080That's a very simple and not very pleasant lesson to leaders, to public opinion, to regular people, to ordinary people.
00:24:11.780If already war is started, if bombers are flying, if missiles are shelling cities and killing people and tanks are rolling, you cannot stop them by resolution of the United Nations General Assembly.
00:24:28.720You cannot stop them by sanctions, whatever sanctions will be.
00:24:33.320Just please let me just remind everybody.
00:24:37.120In 1939, the Soviet Union started war against Finland.
00:24:42.780It is so-called Soviet-Finnish War or Winter War, as it is known in Finland.
00:24:48.300A couple of weeks after that, the Soviet Union has been expelled from the League of Nations.
00:24:52.900The question is, the question is, expelling of the League of Nations or from the United Nations, if it would be today, whether it stopped Stalin to continue his attack on Finland?
00:25:37.660And actually, expulsion from the League of Nations, it's a very serious action.
00:25:41.340So, it means that these particular very serious acts that we have seen in the past did not stop Stalin or Hitler when he actually, he himself, left League of Nations.
00:25:58.020So, if the aggressor decides to attack neighbors, membership in any international organizations or sanctions of economic type or transportation or personal sanctions do not play any role.
00:26:17.280So, that is why it is necessary to change mind of those people who prefer to think once again in those, in ideas of sanctions or expulsion or whatever.
00:26:55.680When he received information that the British and French troops are embarking on the ships and are going to be shipped to Finland to fight on the Finnish side.
00:27:09.120As soon as Stalin received this information, he immediately started so-called peaceful negotiations and stopped the war.
00:27:16.900Do you know when Putin stopped his attack on Georgia in the year 2008?
00:27:28.060On August 11, year 2008, George Bush Jr. appeared in front of the White House, flanked by his Minister of Defense and Assistant on National Defense.
00:27:44.860And proclaimed that he's directing U.S. troops to the region.
00:27:50.100And immediately, U.S. Navy started to move from the Mediterranean to the Black Sea.
00:27:56.680And U.S. Air Force has been deployed to Romania and Turkey to the U.S. bases.
00:28:03.980Twelve hours after that, Putin stopped attack on Georgia.
00:28:09.180That's a powerful result of resistance, of resistance of a very powerful country in this world, United States, for aggression.
00:31:46.720So, once again, we can see, not only in 1939 with Mr. Stalin, not in 2008 with Putin versus Georgia, but right now, today, some countries and some leaders prefer not to be afraid to resist.