TRIGGERnometry - Ex-Putin Advisor：＂He Must Be Stopped＂

00:00:00.160 He is repeating, not only in December last year, but in January this year, in February

00:00:04.880 this year, my goal is to have Baltic countries, Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria.

00:00:11.400 They're repeating that right now.

00:00:13.940 So why I should not believe Mr. Putin?

00:00:22.500 Hello and welcome to Trigonometry.

00:00:25.560 I'm Francis Foster.

00:00:26.920 I'm Constantine Kissin.

00:00:27.960 And this is a show for you if you want honest conversations with fascinating people.

00:00:33.680 Our brilliant guest today is a former economic advisor to Russian President Vladimir Putin,

00:00:38.820 Andrei Lerionov.

00:00:39.620 Welcome to Trigonometry.

00:00:41.400 Well, thank you for inviting me.

00:00:42.720 Hello.

00:00:43.960 It's such a pleasure to have you on the show.

00:00:46.060 Many of our audience will be familiar with your background and who you are, but for those

00:00:49.900 of them who are not, please tell everybody, who are you?

00:00:53.120 How are you where you are?

00:00:54.140 What has been your journey through life that leads you to be sitting here talking to us?

00:00:57.960 Well, life is long, so I will not have enough time to discuss all my life.

00:01:03.600 But essentially, I'm economist by training and I spend most of my time by being economist and writing economic stuff and advising on economic policy.

00:01:15.260 It happened that I spent some time, about six years advising Mr. Putin as economic advisor to the Russian President.

00:01:25.360 I also been a Russian Sherpa to the G8 club of the most developed and then democratic countries, at least.

00:01:37.460 Some of them, some of them still democratic, one of them already not.

00:01:44.180 In year 2005, after serious, series of serious conversations with my former boss, I resigned from both of my positions as Russian Sherpa and advisor.

00:02:01.200 After that, in some time, I left Russia and now I'm living in the United States, working for the Center for Security Policy and also spent some time in Ukraine, working for the Ukrainian Institute for Future.

00:02:19.480 So it's my short story.

00:02:21.480 Fantastic. Well, we are going to draw on your economic expertise in a moment, but one of the questions I think a lot of quote-unquote normal people are asking at the moment is they're trying to establish how rational Vladimir Putin is.

00:02:37.200 There's a sort of a mad Vlad narrative that's emerging in the West among some people.

00:02:42.560 So before we get into the economics, the sanctions, the war, the military situation, what is your assessment of President Putin's mental state?

00:02:51.080 You've seen some of the speeches that he's given that seem quite belligerent and so on.

00:02:54.680 What do you make of that conversation, first of all?

00:02:57.780 I don't buy that description that you have mentioned before.

00:03:01.360 So he's a pretty rational person.

00:03:02.880 Probably he's the most rational person that I've ever met in my life.

00:03:07.200 And he continues to be, as so he's very calculated, he's very determined, and he's accurately balancing when he tried to portray himself as a so-called, if you use this word, mad.

00:03:23.440 But that is just for producing some impression on weak people, especially my leaders of the Western countries.

00:03:30.340 Some Western leaders like to be feared, and Mr. Putin knows that, and that is why he plays the game or plays the show with them.

00:03:42.160 He pretends to be mad, and they pretend to be feared.

00:03:45.720 So that's exactly what both sides would like to do.

00:03:51.240 Interesting.

00:03:51.620 When Putin pretends to be mad and threatening with the ukulele blackmail, so some people, like President Biden, prefer to believe him, or some European leaders say,

00:04:05.780 no, no, no, no, we cannot participate in any serious resistance to Mr. Putin.

00:04:12.140 So that is why, okay, let's be fearful and do nothing.

00:04:17.320 That's exactly what Mr. Putin wants.

00:04:19.120 So that is why he's very, very rational and calculated.

00:04:22.880 And speaking of rational calculated, the obvious question, and people are trying to answer it for themselves in the last couple of weeks,

00:04:29.660 you were talking since 2014 about the fact that there would be a full-scale war.

00:04:34.980 I've been talking since 2014.

00:04:37.000 I have far less expertise than you, but it was quite obvious to me also.

00:04:41.180 So if Putin is such a rational person, explain to our Western audience, what is the rationale for his invasion?

00:04:50.540 Is it NATO expansion?

00:04:52.420 Is it his own expansionist desires?

00:04:54.600 Is it other things?

00:04:55.920 Why has he done this?

00:04:57.100 He's rational, but he's rational, not in our sense, so not in a sense of civilized people who would like to live in peace and democracy with the rule of law.

00:05:09.400 He's a Russian in a sense of being imperialist. 0.76

00:05:13.220 So he started to talk about Kyiv as his wet dreams, as we used to say in Russia, from year 2001, so already for 21 years.

00:05:25.640 So, and for these more than two decades, he has written so many texts, he has made so many statements.

00:05:33.820 All of them were devoted to Ukraine and to Kyiv.

00:05:38.420 So that is why he never hid his intentions to establish control over Ukraine, to capture Kyiv.

00:05:46.560 And his statement about the Ukraine does not right to be an independent state.

00:05:52.440 So that is why it's not too hard to predict that he would do something.

00:05:57.420 Moreover, he started to do something like these aggressive actions from year 2003.

00:06:05.940 And that is why it was year 2003 in the Strip Tuzla in the Strait of Kerch.

00:06:11.480 In year 2008, he proclaimed in conversation with George Bush Jr. that Ukraine does not have right to exist.

00:06:19.120 In year 2014, he captured and occupied Crimea and started war in Donbass.

00:06:25.640 And in year 2021, he published a long essay explaining that Ukraine should be put under his control.

00:06:34.660 So it was rather hard not to see what he was doing and what he was saying.

00:06:40.260 Andrei, I will never forgive myself if I don't ask this question, so I have to ask it.

00:06:45.440 What was it like to work for Vladimir Putin?

00:06:48.740 In the UK, we say, would you go for a pint with him?

00:06:52.240 Is Vladimir Putin somebody that you could imagine going to a bar, drinking vodka with?

00:06:58.700 Is he a sociable man?

00:07:00.500 Does he have another side to him?

00:07:02.160 Or is it what you see is what you get?

00:07:04.660 I never did what you have mentioned right now.

00:07:09.400 I never went to a bar with Mr. Putin.

00:07:12.860 I was an economic advisor and I was invited to be an economic advisor.

00:07:18.200 Actually, I've been invited three times because twice I declined his invitation and I agreed only for the third time.

00:07:25.920 So, and I was working as an economic advisor.

00:07:28.100 So, my idea was to bring economic growth to Russia.

00:07:31.560 So, I was advising on economic policies that would be good, would be necessary to start and to continue very fast economic growth.

00:07:44.020 And I succeeded in that.

00:07:47.260 The 10 years that the policies that I recommended were implemented, they were best period in the Russian economic history.

00:07:56.580 Russian GDP doubled, Russian GDP per capita doubled and private consumption per capita grew 2.3 times within 10 years.

00:08:06.420 So, this is one again, once again, it's the best economic growth period in the history of the country.

00:08:13.700 So, that is why from the kind of the professional point of view, it was very productive for me.

00:08:22.000 It was very productive for 145 million of Russian citizens.

00:08:27.300 And the next question I was going to ask, you've kind of alluded to, do you feel that he was a competent leader?

00:08:35.340 Let's forget about the war in Ukraine.

00:08:38.860 But just when he came to power, do you think he was a competent leader the way you think he ran the country, was effective, particularly when you compare it with former leaders, certainly people like Yeltsin?

00:08:51.180 You need to understand that I did not discuss with him how to attack Ukraine.

00:08:55.900 How many bombers and banks did you put on that?

00:08:58.140 Right, I am an economist and just, I talked to him on economic policies and state of economy.

00:09:05.600 So, and I found him as a person who is ready to listen and to learn something that he didn't know.

00:09:15.640 So, he was really rather unique in this regard compared to other Russian political leaders.

00:09:22.420 And after that, I met many other leaders, including leaders from the West.

00:09:26.640 And he was very unique in this regard because he tried to understand very complicated issues.

00:09:34.060 And some of them he learned and some of them he started to implement in his actions, in his policies.

00:09:41.780 And it is one of the explanations why that period, 10 years period, was such a good from the point of view of economic growth.

00:09:50.840 So, it was his contribution to this result, no doubt.

00:09:57.500 It's interesting that there seems, at least to me, and I'm sure you'll explain to me why I'm wrong, but there seems to be a contradiction in what you're saying.

00:10:05.200 On the one hand, he is the guy who learns, who is smart, who, you know, listens to you and other people around him to deliver things for the Russian people.

00:10:16.300 And he's very rational, yet at the same time, his imperialist ambitions have taken him to a war in Ukraine, which will hurt Russia, would you not say?

00:10:26.340 No, I completely agree with you.

00:10:28.060 Actually, I came to the same conclusion about 16 or 17 years ago.

00:10:33.360 That is why I resigned from position of economic advisor.

00:10:37.020 But initially, when I started to work in the presidential administration, it was quite a shock for me, because before that, I thought that those people who would like to have economic prosperity for our own citizens would not do imperialistic policies.

00:10:56.220 And they would not destroy democratic constitutions, and they would not destroy rule of law.

00:11:03.400 And to my great surprise, because Francis Fukuyama did not explain to us in his end of history, he saw that everything should be in one direction.

00:11:15.440 Everyone who is supporting liberty or democracy and well-being of people, that's just one direction.

00:11:22.900 And all evils will be on the other side.

00:11:27.700 But I was able to see with my own eyes that somebody could be, or just a person with whom I was working for some time,

00:11:35.380 at the same time is having intentions to improve living standards of people, to have economic roles.

00:11:44.860 But at the same time, he's really very serious in destroying liberal institutions, democratic institutions, institutions of law, and after that, to start imperialistic wars at the same time.

00:12:01.260 Let me ask you, Andrei, if I may, I asked you about NATO expansion, and we didn't quite address it.

00:12:06.520 There are people like John Meyersheimer, or Vladimir Posner, or there are others who say the reason that this has happened is the West, particularly NATO, pushed closer to the borders of Russia.

00:12:20.100 Vladimir Posner, for example, would say that Putin wanted to work with the West.

00:12:24.260 He wanted Russia to join NATO.

00:12:25.880 He wanted all poor, you know, fluffy Mr. Putin wants is for the NATO not to have its missiles and troops on its borders.

00:12:34.420 You know, Ukraine is the equivalent of Mexico for the United States, and expanding NATO into that area is very threatening to Russia.

00:12:42.680 And that's the reason all of this is happening.

00:12:45.160 What do you say to them?

00:12:47.040 You know, it's very interesting what you're asking for.

00:12:50.420 And especially because these two presentations, two shows of both John Meyersheimer and Vladimir Posner, became a viral due to policies of YouTube.

00:13:03.620 Because I saw both of those shows some time ago, when there was just several tens of thousands of people watched it.

00:13:12.720 But after the policy of YouTube, that recommended everywhere and to everybody, the number of people who were forced to watch those shows rise up to 20 million or something like that.

00:13:26.880 So that is why it's a particular policy of our platform, our YouTube platform, to force people to watch these two shows, which from my point of view are completely wrong.

00:13:38.420 They are wrong in their assumptions, they are wrong in their attitudes.

00:13:44.160 To be correct, I would say, both of them, at least John Meyersheimer is definitely, he belongs to the same class of thinkers who prefer to see empires in these worlds,

00:13:59.560 who does not give the right of small nations, of small countries to be independent.

00:14:08.300 He's thinking, and it's actually, it's a very, well, I would say, rather spread, rather popular view among some political thinkers,

00:14:17.160 that not every country deserves to be independent.

00:14:20.660 And there are some small countries that should go under the so-called umbrella of superpowers.

00:14:28.960 Andrew, I'm sorry to interrupt, but isn't that true, though?

00:14:32.360 I mean, look at the Cuban Missile Crisis, for example.

00:14:34.620 Did Cuba really have sovereignty when the Soviet Union tried to move its nuclear missiles onto Cuba?

00:14:42.360 The United States said, we don't care about your sovereignty, we care about our security.

00:14:46.980 Isn't that, John Meyersheimer would argue, that's what Vladimir Putin is doing.

00:14:51.620 Okay, but it was in 1962.

00:14:54.240 It was 60 years ago.

00:14:56.660 We're living in Yertel, 2022.

00:15:00.380 So, and after, and it was actually mid of the Cold War.

00:15:07.340 And in 1991, Cold War was officially declared finished.

00:15:11.800 So, the Soviet Union disintegrated, was a part ceased to exist.

00:15:17.740 And there was a possibility, actually, that was claimed by many people, including by Francis Fukuyama, whom I mentioned, and many others.

00:15:25.900 But, okay, yes, during the Cold War, during the World War, that's a World War. 0.55

00:15:30.660 And in many regions of the world, it was a hot war.

00:15:33.980 So, after the finish of three World Wars, First, Second, and the Cold War, it is possible for small nations or medium-sized nations to be really independent, to have real sovereignty.

00:15:46.540 Because nobody should threaten them.

00:15:50.000 So, that is why, if something happened in the past, okay, we can find many historical examples before the First World War, Second World War, and Cuba will be not the only one.

00:16:02.660 But we are living in the 21st century, and nobody should use the instruments of the 19th century, or 18th century, or even the first half of the 20th century, against neighbors, against small countries.

00:16:15.280 Why Ukraine, or any other country, could not live like Luxembourg, or Switzerland?

00:16:22.060 Luxembourg and Switzerland are smaller nations than Ukraine.

00:16:25.120 Nobody threaten Luxembourg and Switzerland from neighbors.

00:16:30.040 Why Ukraine does not have the same right as Luxembourg?

00:16:32.780 So, I'm just playing devil's advocate here, because emotionally, I agree with you very much.

00:16:37.900 I do think that Ukraine should have the right to do and choose any direction that it wants.

00:16:43.180 And I have family in Ukraine, and I want them to have the same freedoms and the same quality of life that I do here in London.

00:16:49.220 Of course I do.

00:16:50.080 But on the other hand, if what is perceived as a hostile power to the EU placed its nuclear missiles, or attempted to place its bases in Luxembourg, I think other EU countries would be concerned.

00:17:04.940 All I'm getting at with you is, isn't it true to say that, of course, a country like Russia, which perceives the United States as a strategic adversary at best,

00:17:16.860 placing its bases or placing its missiles on its borders is a concern.

00:17:23.120 And when it happened with Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, etc., that was a little bit different, because those countries were never in the long history part of the Russian Empire.

00:17:32.660 But Ukraine is different, because there's that kind of, you know, emotional element to it as well.

00:17:38.360 And it's a much bigger country, too.

00:17:39.700 No, but this is, if there is something that is quite opposite to what has been claimed by Devil's Advocate or Mr. Putin.

00:17:49.500 Because essentially, Ukraine did not place nuclear missiles on its territory.

00:17:54.580 There was nobody among Ukrainian politicians, among Ukrainian statements, among even the public leaders in Ukraine, who would ever suggest to placing, to deploy nuclear missiles on Ukraine that would threaten Moscow or Russia.

00:18:14.940 No, the case was exactly different.

00:18:19.060 Ukraine, in 1994, signed Budapest Memorandum, through which Ukraine removed all nuclear weapons that were exactly located on the Ukrainian territory and gave all nuclear weapons to Russia.

00:18:35.440 So that is why, if there is a threat, there's a threat from Russia to Ukraine, not from Ukraine to Russia.

00:18:40.560 And actually, there is a constitution of Ukraine, in which it stated very clear, there should be no foreign bases on Ukrainian territory.

00:18:48.560 And there was only one foreign military bases based on the Ukrainian territory.

00:18:54.340 It was a Russian Navy base in Sebastopol, in Crimea.

00:18:58.320 So that is why, if there was any threat to anyone, it was a threat from Russia to Ukraine, not vice versa.

00:19:06.060 And until the very last moment, Ukraine was never played any potential that Ukraine never invited United States or NATO to deploy nuclear missiles or to deploy U.S. troops on Ukrainian territory or deploy U.S. or NATO bases on Ukrainian territory.

00:19:26.980 The majority of the Ukrainian population were against NATO membership until Putin attacked Ukraine in year 2014, occupying Crimea, occupied Sevastopol, started war in Donbass.

00:19:41.880 So reaction of Ukraine to defend itself, it is a result of Putin's aggressive policy and his aggressions against Ukraine.

00:19:50.660 Andrei, why is it that so many people in the West were shocked when he invaded and very few people predicted it?

00:20:03.560 Because the West is living in different reality.

00:20:08.620 Many, I would say, Western leaders, Western leaders, political leaders, and Western leaders in the sense of media and public opinion.

00:20:16.820 They really decided that, OK, the lives that they are enjoying, especially in Europe and the Northern America over the last several decades, are so good that they prefer to forget or prefer not to see reality beyond Europe's borders or North American borders.

00:20:41.720 And there are thugs and there are thugs in the world that are occupying the highest position in power in a number of countries.

00:20:49.260 There are imperialists, they are aggressors, and they are using very different policies and different attitudes and different actions from those people who are living in Europe.

00:21:01.720 Just people pretend to see that that part of the world does not exist, or if they would preach to some kind of good cause or so-called diplomacy, which means doing nothing, that would help to save thousands of lives from attacks of thugs and imperialists.

00:21:24.540 That's just mistakes. And actually, by the way, you asked me before whether Mr. Putin is irrational and whether he understands what's going around the world.

00:21:35.840 Mr. Putin understands very well what is going around the world, but many Western leaders do not.

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00:22:12.420 Hey Francis, do you like podcasts and politics?

00:22:17.600 No, mate. I'm a real man. I'm only interested in football, birds and fast cars.

00:22:23.780 Last time you tried to drive a car, you had a panic attack when you got overtaken by a granny. 1.00

00:22:27.680 She was driving very aggressively and used disgusting language for a woman of her age. 1.00

00:22:32.360 Well, for those of you who do like podcasts and politics, then you have to check out The Lost Debate.

00:22:37.300 It's a podcast and YouTube show for political eclectics who want to escape their media bubbles and engage in good faith with ideas from across the political spectrum.

00:22:46.560 It's three friends from across the political spectrum discussing the big issues of the day.

00:22:51.980 Ravi's a former Obama staffer and school principal, Corey's a former Fox Radio News host and Ricky's a New York Post columnist.

00:23:00.980 Instead of being at each other's throats, they focus on bringing new perspectives to the table in constructive debates that sound less like crossfire and more like discussions between real people.

00:23:11.240 They sound like us, apart from the whole sound like real people bit.

00:23:15.500 That and they might actually know what they're talking about.

00:23:17.540 Check The Lost Debate out on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.

00:23:22.680 Do you think the West has done enough in order to support Ukraine?

00:23:27.200 Or do you think that actually what they should do is they should have put up maybe stronger sanctions, maybe done more, particularly because maybe Putin will then advance and try and take other nations?

00:23:39.620 The short answer is definitely no, and we can discuss what the West might do.

00:23:48.140 One very basic principle actually is coming from our earlier discussion is that if tanks are already rolling, they cannot be stopped by sanctions.

00:24:02.080 That's a very simple and not very pleasant lesson to leaders, to public opinion, to regular people, to ordinary people.

00:24:11.780 If already war is started, if bombers are flying, if missiles are shelling cities and killing people and tanks are rolling, you cannot stop them by resolution of the United Nations General Assembly.

00:24:28.720 You cannot stop them by sanctions, whatever sanctions will be.

00:24:33.320 Just please let me just remind everybody.

00:24:37.120 In 1939, the Soviet Union started war against Finland.

00:24:42.780 It is so-called Soviet-Finnish War or Winter War, as it is known in Finland.

00:24:48.300 A couple of weeks after that, the Soviet Union has been expelled from the League of Nations.

00:24:52.900 The question is, the question is, expelling of the League of Nations or from the United Nations, if it would be today, whether it stopped Stalin to continue his attack on Finland?

00:25:06.700 No.

00:25:07.500 He continued this war for another hundred days. 0.70

00:25:11.300 Whether this expulsion from the League of Nations stopped Stalin from occupation of Baltic countries?

00:25:19.080 No.

00:25:19.400 In 1940, whether that fact stopped Putin, stopped Stalin, it's interesting, it's like a Freudian.

00:25:28.100 Freudian slip there.

00:25:30.280 Okay, so just whether it stopped Stalin from occupation of Bessarabia and Northern Bukovina in 1940?

00:25:36.560 No.

00:25:37.660 And actually, expulsion from the League of Nations, it's a very serious action.

00:25:41.340 So, it means that these particular very serious acts that we have seen in the past did not stop Stalin or Hitler when he actually, he himself, left League of Nations.

00:25:58.020 So, if the aggressor decides to attack neighbors, membership in any international organizations or sanctions of economic type or transportation or personal sanctions do not play any role.

00:26:13.060 They would continue this aggression.

00:26:15.780 They would continue their attacks.

00:26:17.280 So, that is why it is necessary to change mind of those people who prefer to think once again in those, in ideas of sanctions or expulsion or whatever.

00:26:29.880 No.

00:26:30.660 For hardware policies, for hardware attacks, it should be hardware response.

00:26:35.840 Only that can work.

00:26:37.800 It's not a guarantee.

00:26:38.400 What do you mean by hardware response, Andrei?

00:26:40.960 It means resistance.

00:26:42.560 It means a forceful resistance.

00:26:44.380 Do you know, when I mentioned this, Soviet Finnish War of 1939, 1940, do you know when Stalin really stopped the war?

00:26:55.200 No.

00:26:55.680 When he received information that the British and French troops are embarking on the ships and are going to be shipped to Finland to fight on the Finnish side.

00:27:09.120 As soon as Stalin received this information, he immediately started so-called peaceful negotiations and stopped the war.

00:27:16.900 Do you know when Putin stopped his attack on Georgia in the year 2008?

00:27:21.500 We know this just not by days.

00:27:25.480 We know it's by hours and minutes.

00:27:28.060 On August 11, year 2008, George Bush Jr. appeared in front of the White House, flanked by his Minister of Defense and Assistant on National Defense.

00:27:44.860 And proclaimed that he's directing U.S. troops to the region.

00:27:50.100 And immediately, U.S. Navy started to move from the Mediterranean to the Black Sea.

00:27:56.680 And U.S. Air Force has been deployed to Romania and Turkey to the U.S. bases.

00:28:03.980 Twelve hours after that, Putin stopped attack on Georgia.

00:28:09.180 That's a powerful result of resistance, of resistance of a very powerful country in this world, United States, for aggression.

00:28:22.740 I take your point, Andre.

00:28:24.300 It's a hard line.

00:28:25.500 And, you know, you argued it well.

00:28:27.840 What would you say to the people going, hang on a second here?

00:28:30.580 If you start down the part of hard line resistance, your words, I mean, we're on the path to World War III.

00:28:38.760 And the second part of the question, Andre, is you've used the example of Stalin, which, again, is a good point.

00:28:44.180 But let's be fair.

00:28:44.920 Stalin didn't have nukes, did he?

00:28:47.500 Okay.

00:28:48.280 Mr. Putin.

00:28:50.080 First of all, Stalin had nukes.

00:28:51.720 But not in 39.

00:28:54.580 But in 49.

00:28:56.200 Okay.

00:28:56.520 In 49, he already had the nukes.

00:28:59.180 And after that, there was a Korean war.

00:29:01.440 And how Korea has been saved, at least part of Korea has been saved, with resistance.

00:29:06.560 With resistance from the United States, United Kingdom, and a number of other Western countries who supported and defended South Korea.

00:29:14.900 It's the only way to do it.

00:29:16.080 And actually, even Stalin did not use nukes in Korean war.

00:29:21.720 What about Mr. Putin?

00:29:23.340 Okay.

00:29:23.720 In year 2008, during Russian-Georgian war, Mr. Putin did have nukes.

00:29:29.200 Did he use it when Americans moved their troops into the region?

00:29:34.200 No.

00:29:35.140 What happened in year 2015, when the Russian bomber violated Turkish airspace for 40 seconds?

00:29:42.360 Turkish jet shot down Russian bombers.

00:29:46.900 And two people, one of them, pilot, had been killed.

00:29:49.500 What was the reaction of Mr. Putin to the action of Turkey?

00:29:53.860 Not United States.

00:29:54.960 Turkey just did it alone. 0.87

00:29:57.420 What was the reaction?

00:29:58.920 Mr. Putin promised to punish Turkish tomatoes.

00:30:02.320 But he did not do even that.

00:30:07.540 So, and after that, none of Russian bombers violated Turkish space anymore.

00:30:15.940 In year 2018, the group of Russian mercenaries were trying to capture the gas plant in Deir Azor, in Syria.

00:30:25.500 What happened after that?

00:30:28.220 Americans with Kurds destroyed this group. 0.74

00:30:31.760 And 200 mercenaries were killed.

00:30:34.060 Russian mercenaries.

00:30:35.360 What was the reaction of Mr. Putin?

00:30:38.100 Nothing.

00:30:39.820 Deep silence.

00:30:42.100 For four years, that continues up today.

00:30:45.220 Putin never mentioned it.

00:30:47.200 He not even used nukes.

00:30:49.720 He never mentioned nukes.

00:30:50.880 He never mentioned this case.

00:30:53.720 What is going right now, during this war against Ukraine?

00:30:58.360 What Turkey did? 0.71

00:31:00.060 Turkey did something that no other country did.

00:31:03.840 Turkey essentially participated in this war on the side of Ukraine.

00:31:09.880 Do you know about that?

00:31:10.540 With drones.

00:31:11.300 Yeah.

00:31:11.740 No.

00:31:12.800 Drones are very well known.

00:31:15.660 Turkey closed straits.

00:31:18.220 Bosporus and Dardanelles.

00:31:19.480 And the Russian navy has been left in the Mediterranean and again sea.

00:31:26.680 Those ships, those navy that could shell and bombard Odessa, Nikolaev, and other Ukrainian cities.

00:31:34.520 So, Turkey closed the straits.

00:31:37.300 What we hear from Mr. Putin?

00:31:40.080 Whether he's threatening to use nukes against Turkey?

00:31:43.700 No.

00:31:45.100 He never mentioned it publicly.

00:31:46.720 So, once again, we can see, not only in 1939 with Mr. Stalin, not in 2008 with Putin versus Georgia, but right now, today, some countries and some leaders prefer not to be afraid to resist.

00:32:05.540 What is the reaction from Mr. Putin?

00:32:08.160 Nothing.

00:32:09.360 But those leaders who actually plays for Mr. Putin pretend to be afraid, to pretend to be fearful.

00:32:17.440 And that is playing this game with MiG-29 from Poland, Slovakia, and Bulgaria.

00:32:22.600 It was a decision of Mr. Biden not to give those jets to Ukrainians because of nukes, because of such a threat. 0.91

00:32:29.520 Okay.

00:32:30.440 It's a game.

00:32:31.880 It is a game for four hands, as we say in Russia.

00:32:35.720 So, it's a game of two people.

00:32:39.320 One person is playing the role of the bad cop.

00:32:42.600 Another is playing the role of good cop, but they are playing together against Ukraine. 0.59

00:32:49.220 So, okay.

00:32:50.780 I know that a lot of people will be interested in your perspective, and I am very interested in the perspective you bring.

00:32:58.140 That's not an argument I've really heard much in the Western mainstream media, at least.

00:33:02.760 But it is quite a scary argument for people because, essentially, you're asking us to play chicken with nuclear weapons in the modern age,

00:33:11.860 in which the use of nuclear weapons would end all life on Earth.

00:33:15.480 Is that really a risk you think the United States should be taking?

00:33:20.880 It's very strange.

00:33:22.600 Mr. Putin was threatening to use nukes, so he's playing at least in those threats, 0.65

00:33:28.100 so many times that those who prefer not to hear what Mr. Putin is doing, just who is realistic,

00:33:36.560 who is understanding what's going on.

00:33:39.420 Mr. Putin is already using it as a blackmail, as a threat.

00:33:44.040 So, that is why if you refuse to do it, you are in a big position.

00:33:48.520 So, it means you already surrender in this battle, whatever you can call a real war or psychological battle or whatever.

00:33:59.120 Just if one side is openly refusing to use some particular instrument or some particular weapons,

00:34:06.860 it means you already surrender.

00:34:08.780 Because the other side is ready to escalate.

00:34:13.280 And if you are not ready to escalate, it means you are ready for defeat.

00:34:17.540 It means you are ready to defeat it.

00:34:19.720 The only way, just, okay, just, let's imagine that we are not playing the geopolitics,

00:34:26.360 but you happen to be in the night or in the evening, in the dark corner,

00:34:32.240 and some thugs approaching you with very clear intentions.

00:34:36.940 That's what are they going to do with you or with your friends or with your family.

00:34:40.320 Okay, what is your reaction?

00:34:42.600 Your reaction is to defend yourself and your close ones or to run.

00:34:49.760 If you are not, if you are going to read the Bible to that person or those persons,

00:34:56.780 okay, you probably would not win this battle.

00:34:59.180 So, that is why either you fight, it's not a guarantee that you can win,

00:35:04.680 but at least you will try, you have a chance.

00:35:07.280 Or if you say, oh, I'm not going to use my force, I'm going to read a good book to that person.

00:35:13.740 Okay, what is going to happen?

00:35:16.740 You will be in a very bad position.

00:35:20.100 Okay, I think it's probably an obvious simplification, but it doesn't matter.

00:35:23.080 Let's get into your specific...

00:35:25.180 By the way, it is the same, absolutely the same story.

00:35:27.840 This is psychological warfare.

00:35:30.380 If leaders of the country refuse to use the instruments and the weapons in their disposal,

00:35:37.680 so they, it means they don't have them.

00:35:40.460 Just if you do not use nukes, even your imaginative, some kind of possession,

00:35:47.980 so it means you don't have it.

00:35:49.580 It means that just you are in a position of Luxembourg.

00:35:52.800 You are not United Nations, you are not United States, you are not United Kingdom.

00:35:58.140 You are just Luxembourg, or Switzerland, or Finland.

00:36:02.220 Yeah, but the fact that nuclear war can end all life on Earth, I think,

00:36:06.640 plays very much into making it a bigger issue than just you being mugged for your money by a thug in the street.

00:36:13.840 That's exactly the point that Mr. Putin is using.

00:36:19.140 Because, okay, because you are thinking in that particular approach,

00:36:23.400 okay, just in this particular line, okay, and he's a very different one.

00:36:27.680 Okay, that's exactly the point.

00:36:29.680 You're ready, ready to be defeated.

00:36:33.140 You're ready to be...

00:36:34.180 Okay, I hear you.

00:36:34.860 I'm ready to be defeated.

00:36:35.960 So, explain this to me.

00:36:37.580 What are your policy prescriptions in this moment?

00:36:40.560 How should the United States, because let's be clear, Britain, France, Germany, they can all do things,

00:36:46.000 but at the end of the day, it is up to the United States.

00:36:48.320 It's the most powerful country in the world by far.

00:36:50.600 It's the decision maker on these issues.

00:36:52.640 What would you have America do right now?

00:36:56.500 That's another mistake, by the way, Konstantin.

00:36:59.140 Okay.

00:36:59.400 Because we are accustomed to think about the United States as the most powerful country in this world.

00:37:06.800 And that is why people just tend to believe, okay, so we cannot do anything.

00:37:12.360 Just let's wait until US president will do something.

00:37:17.400 We are in a position right now, especially with arrival of new American president 14 months ago,

00:37:23.260 in a situation where United States, at least under the current administration,

00:37:30.000 is going to do anything in defense of freedom, democracy, and lives of million peoples around the world.

00:37:38.020 And for the first time since 1949, since the foundation of NATO,

00:37:45.760 the Western countries, free countries, free world, found itself in the position

00:37:51.120 that they need to act without the United States.

00:37:58.160 Because the current US administration would do nothing, almost nothing, for defense of Europe.

00:38:04.940 And Europe woke up, especially over the last four weeks,

00:38:10.760 in a situation that if Europe itself or European countries would not act by themselves,

00:38:20.020 so they are risking to be attacked next time by Putin.

00:38:25.060 If he will be able to win in Ukraine, it is absolutely clear that he will not be stopped.

00:38:33.620 He will go further.

00:38:35.520 And his goals are already known.

00:38:39.400 He issued this ultimatum to NATO, to the West, to the United States, to Europe,

00:38:45.880 in December last year.

00:38:47.660 On December 17th, he published two so-called draft treaties,

00:38:52.300 in which he proclaimed his goal is so-called returning to 1997 division line in Europe,

00:39:01.460 which with the so-called denatization of Central and Eastern Europe,

00:39:08.300 which means, and actually they mentioned those countries,

00:39:13.020 Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria,

00:39:18.520 should stop to be members of NATO.

00:39:22.440 And it is not only denatization, it is demilaterization of those countries.

00:39:27.860 It is a text of these documents.

00:39:30.040 It's exactly what we do.

00:39:30.620 That's true, and I've read those texts, Andrei.

00:39:32.280 So that being the case, what should Europe do in this situation, in your opinion?

00:39:39.460 Right now, as we understand, the strongest army on the European continent is Ukrainian one.

00:39:47.440 It's a kind of, it became known over the last four weeks.

00:39:52.240 And the Ukrainian nation is resisting this attack.

00:39:56.840 And this is the strongest ally of Europe in this battle against tyranny, against despotism.

00:40:04.960 So that is why it's not only due to humanitarian reasons,

00:40:09.880 it is necessary to support Ukraine,

00:40:13.080 but it is in just for genuine European interest to do everything possible and impossible,

00:40:20.600 that the Putin's aggression against Ukraine will be the last one for Putin.

00:40:26.840 So that is why Europe, European countries,

00:40:31.040 with the United States or without the United States, doesn't matter,

00:40:34.860 need to do everything just to support and to defend Ukraine.

00:40:39.460 And now we can discuss what exactly Europe can do.

00:40:42.820 But this is a very important mental point.

00:40:46.620 Europe should not allow Ukraine to be subjugated by a Kremlin's master.

00:40:55.180 Europe should not allow Ukraine to be subjugated by a Kremlin.

00:40:56.800 Okay, great.

00:40:57.500 I am with you 100%.

00:40:59.160 How?

00:41:01.800 All right.

00:41:04.000 Crucial point now is no-fly zone, as we all know.

00:41:08.420 And President Zelensky said it in all his conversation with Western leaders,

00:41:13.980 in his statements to the UK Parliament, to the US Congress, to anyone.

00:41:18.880 So just help us to close the sky.

00:41:22.760 It can be done in different ways.

00:41:26.600 Certainly the best way is NATO would pronounce no-fly zone over Ukraine.

00:41:31.820 That would be the best solution.

00:41:33.940 Okay, NATO is scared.

00:41:36.860 It is not Turkey. 0.84

00:41:38.160 Turkey alone can do whatever they like, 0.68

00:41:40.200 and actually they shot Russian bombers in the Turkish sky without any problem.

00:41:46.220 But NATO is much smaller and weaker than Turkey alone.

00:41:50.640 NATO cannot do it.

00:41:51.880 Okay, but NATO can provide Ukraine with anti-air weapons,

00:41:57.600 with anti-missile weapons,

00:41:59.400 with many other weapons,

00:42:01.100 with heavy military equipment that Ukraine needs.

00:42:05.220 And Ukraine is pleading to provide them with all these weapons.

00:42:11.920 And Europe does not provide that weapons that Ukraine needs at this moment.

00:42:18.040 Actually, United Kingdom is in a very particular position.

00:42:23.220 United Kingdom is leading the so-called JEF,

00:42:27.060 Joint Expeditionary Force.

00:42:29.260 It is a group of 10 countries,

00:42:32.440 led by the UK.

00:42:33.720 So, it is an expeditionary force.

00:42:37.520 These JEF can deploy their troops in,

00:42:40.620 let's say, the west of Ukraine.

00:42:42.240 It's not necessary for a JEF to participate in the battles.

00:42:46.640 No.

00:42:47.880 JEF would participate in peacekeeping missions.

00:42:51.820 They would provide support for humanitarian convoys,

00:42:56.040 bringing Ukrainians to Europe. 0.97

00:42:58.160 They could provide security for those convoys with military equipment to Ukraine.

00:43:08.300 They would not participate in the battles.

00:43:10.620 They would be just over there,

00:43:12.960 just physically present.

00:43:14.180 And actually, it would be another deterrent to Mr. Lukashenko,

00:43:19.340 who is still thinking whether to participate in aggression against Ukraine or not.

00:43:23.620 And actually, that would be substantial real help of Europe, UK and JEF to Ukraine.

00:43:31.920 But isn't that really where people's concern in the west comes from?

00:43:35.800 Because I hear what you're saying,

00:43:37.100 and I want to defend people in Ukraine from Russian aggression as much as you do.

00:43:41.640 But what happens if NATO shoots down a Russian plane?

00:43:45.600 Or what happens if Russia, as it has done already, 0.82

00:43:50.180 bombs western Ukraine to destroy bases for training or whatever, 0.76

00:43:55.200 and is killing British, American or other European countries' soldiers?

00:43:59.660 Isn't that taking us on the road to World War III,

00:44:02.200 which no one wants and no one can afford?

00:44:04.720 No.

00:44:05.000 First of all, the World War III, to some extent,

00:44:07.840 has been announced, proclaimed by Mr. Putin.

00:44:10.600 So that is why, if the West still don't hear that,

00:44:15.560 it's a problem of the West, not of the reality.

00:44:18.740 But the best way to stop this particular war

00:44:22.360 from evolving into real third world war

00:44:25.360 is just to participate in that particular actions

00:44:29.580 and to stop this war, to defend Ukraine.

00:44:31.940 Because if Ukraine is defended,

00:44:34.380 so this potential third world war will be stopped right now and right there.

00:44:40.600 in Ukraine.

00:44:41.600 But if it is not stopped,

00:44:44.880 it can evolve and can spread to other countries, including Europe.

00:44:49.920 This is a basic lesson of the Second World War.

00:44:54.060 If Hitler would be stopped in Czechoslovakia, 0.94

00:44:57.780 he would not go to Poland.

00:44:59.380 If he would be stopped in Poland,

00:45:01.440 he would not go to France.

00:45:03.360 That's a very basic lesson.

00:45:05.860 We are dealing with the same issue.

00:45:08.100 If Putin has not been stopped in Georgia,

00:45:11.340 he went to Ukraine.

00:45:12.960 If Putin is not stopped in Ukraine,

00:45:16.280 he would go further.

00:45:17.580 Same story.

00:45:20.100 Andre, do you not worry that

00:45:21.740 what Putin has effectively done here

00:45:23.840 is he's backed himself into a corner

00:45:25.860 by deciding to invade Ukraine?

00:45:29.160 And as a result, he can't lose.

00:45:31.940 He just can't lose.

00:45:33.400 So if we start pushing up against him

00:45:36.380 and if we start shooting down Russian planes,

00:45:39.240 then what effectively happens

00:45:41.020 is not only antagonizing,

00:45:45.180 it means that his presidency becomes more destabilized,

00:45:49.140 which means he's therefore more likely to do something rash

00:45:51.900 because he feels his actual position in life is under threat.

00:45:55.440 You know, you know what will happen

00:45:58.920 if NATO or GEF or another coalition of Western countries

00:46:05.040 would declare no-fly zone over Ukraine

00:46:08.980 and would provide necessary resources

00:46:11.780 to secure this no-fly zone.

00:46:15.220 It will be the last day

00:46:17.200 the Russian jets would appear in the Ukrainian sky.

00:46:20.640 It will be a lot of statements from Kremlin.

00:46:24.880 It will be not very nice words whether we hear,

00:46:30.680 but in terms of actions, there will be none.

00:46:33.620 As it was in the case of Turkey

00:46:35.680 that not only declared no-fly zone over Turkish airspace,

00:46:41.340 but effectively shot down the Russian bomber.

00:46:44.640 And Turkey closed the Strait of Bosporus.

00:46:47.020 There was no reaction for that.

00:46:48.800 The same story will be in this case.

00:46:51.680 Russian planes will stop to fly in the Ukrainian sky.

00:46:56.100 Simple.

00:46:57.360 Mr. Putin, as you've seen him,

00:46:59.880 he never did anything

00:47:01.300 that comes from this particular pattern.

00:47:05.360 He's so much afraid for his life,

00:47:07.560 as we have seen,

00:47:09.680 that he has distance for 10 meters

00:47:11.620 when he is meeting French president

00:47:13.720 or his assistants or his ministers.

00:47:17.520 How such a person could start a third world war,

00:47:21.640 real third world war with nukes

00:47:23.780 if he's so much afraid for his personal life?

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00:48:31.480 What is the role of China playing in all of this, Andre?

00:48:34.060 Because initially there were some people worried

00:48:36.920 that China was going to invade Taiwan.

00:48:39.960 Do you think that will happen?

00:48:41.800 Or do you think that because the West has done more

00:48:45.360 than we anticipated,

00:48:47.120 that's made the Chinese think twice?

00:48:50.020 No, first of all, it's better to ask Chinese. 0.99

00:48:53.120 I cannot talk on behalf of the Chinese leadership.

00:48:56.700 Okay, what are they going to do?

00:48:57.900 But from what we are, what we know

00:49:02.240 and from we are getting some kind of additional information,

00:49:06.600 Chinese leadership is not happy with what Mr. Putin is doing

00:49:10.940 in Ukraine and how he's doing.

00:49:13.540 So that is why that gave them a very unpleasant lesson

00:49:18.660 what might happen if China would try to conquer Taiwan

00:49:24.900 with military means.

00:49:27.320 Such an ugly picture does not attract Chinese leadership.

00:49:32.620 And that is why you could easily see the changes

00:49:36.020 in the lexics in these discussions

00:49:39.100 on the part of Chinese leadership

00:49:40.880 compared to just a few months ago

00:49:43.060 when Xi was telling to Biden

00:49:47.560 that Taiwan will be taken anyway.

00:49:51.740 But nowadays, no, only peaceful means.

00:49:56.360 Chinese is very interesting civilizations

00:49:58.760 and interesting leadership, at least for the moment.

00:50:02.340 It does not look like that they are ready

00:50:05.240 to undertake adventure similar to what Mr. Putin

00:50:10.940 is doing in Ukraine.

00:50:13.000 And Francis, you want to ask about sanctions as well, didn't you?

00:50:15.780 Yes.

00:50:16.500 So, Andre, one thing that I really wanted to talk about

00:50:19.780 as Konstantin alluded to was the sanctions question.

00:50:23.000 Now, the West have imposed some pretty strict sanctions.

00:50:26.900 You've said that in the short term,

00:50:28.960 that's going to make no real difference

00:50:31.440 to the war in Ukraine,

00:50:32.500 or no difference at all, should I say.

00:50:34.200 What about the long term, Andre?

00:50:36.060 Will that ultimately weaken and destabilize Putin's regime

00:50:40.300 because Russia is going to run out of money?

00:50:43.140 Or does it make no difference at all?

00:50:44.980 Okay, first of all, we have a historic experience

00:50:48.600 with sanctions introduced against some other countries,

00:50:52.980 against Iran, against South Africa,

00:50:56.360 against North Korea, against Cuba.

00:50:59.260 What was the result of all those sanctions?

00:51:02.900 Whether we've seen any changes in political regime

00:51:06.140 of those countries?

00:51:08.040 Not a single case.

00:51:09.480 And each of those countries is much smaller

00:51:14.520 than Russia.

00:51:18.020 Incomparably smaller.

00:51:19.780 Incomparably weaker.

00:51:21.420 So, if that did not happen,

00:51:23.900 if such result did not happen

00:51:26.900 in any of those cases,

00:51:28.640 what is the basis to expect

00:51:30.580 that all those sanctions would lead

00:51:33.280 in short term, in medium term,

00:51:34.940 in long term with Russia?

00:51:37.180 Just not.

00:51:37.660 There is no basis for that.

00:51:40.220 But actually,

00:51:41.580 the West did not introduce

00:51:42.780 even serious sanctions against Russia.

00:51:45.680 For example, against Iran,

00:51:47.880 the West introduced embargo,

00:51:50.980 oil embargo.

00:51:52.920 Total oil embargo.

00:51:55.940 Okay, where you can see

00:51:57.300 oil or gas embargo against Russia?

00:52:01.340 No, we don't see it.

00:52:03.380 So, that is why there is no real sanctions

00:52:05.780 against Russia for the moment.

00:52:07.660 There are some,

00:52:08.640 but not really serious ones.

00:52:10.820 Because the more serious ones

00:52:12.360 would be sanctions against oil

00:52:15.680 and gas exports from Russia.

00:52:17.980 And nobody even talking about that.

00:52:21.200 But even in this case,

00:52:23.440 it would reduce,

00:52:25.500 it would reduce the potential,

00:52:28.320 economic potential for new aggressions.

00:52:30.560 I would agree with that.

00:52:31.620 But it would not change the type of thinking

00:52:34.220 of Mr. Putin

00:52:35.200 and his entourage.

00:52:37.540 Andrew, sorry to jump in your conversation,

00:52:39.800 France,

00:52:40.040 but Britain and America have said

00:52:42.180 they won't be buying Russian oil or gas.

00:52:44.440 I understand they're small customers,

00:52:46.680 they're a few percentages of the total,

00:52:49.060 but they have said that.

00:52:49.900 So, there has been a little bit of movement

00:52:52.280 on that, hasn't there?

00:52:53.700 No, but it's not embargo.

00:52:56.040 It's, I mean, just,

00:52:57.340 okay, United States that is buying whatever,

00:52:59.680 1% or 2% of the Russian oil,

00:53:02.320 stop to do it.

00:53:03.220 Okay, what is it?

00:53:05.180 Embargo is embargo.

00:53:06.060 It means that just the Western countries

00:53:09.560 or countries that do participate

00:53:11.040 in these policies

00:53:12.380 proclaim that no one can buy

00:53:15.760 Russian oil and Russian gas.

00:53:18.520 And they were ready to introduce sanctions

00:53:20.520 against anyone

00:53:21.620 who is trying to participate in such a trade.

00:53:25.760 Okay, so you as an economic expert,

00:53:30.340 you spent a long time

00:53:32.320 helping Russia rebuild its economy

00:53:35.500 and get on its feet.

00:53:36.660 And as you said yourself,

00:53:37.720 you were successful in that.

00:53:39.960 How do you assess the sanctions

00:53:41.780 that are currently in place?

00:53:43.340 What will be their impact

00:53:44.560 on Russia's economy

00:53:46.000 and on the regime?

00:53:48.420 Okay, the results,

00:53:50.180 actually, the most serious sanctions

00:53:52.420 that have been introduced

00:53:53.440 by the Western countries

00:53:54.560 is the freezing assets

00:53:55.560 of the Central Bank of Russia.

00:53:57.920 This is probably the most important step

00:54:01.040 and with actually rather short-term consequences.

00:54:04.520 because this particular step

00:54:07.160 essentially killed

00:54:08.240 the exchange rate market in Russia

00:54:10.380 and deprived companies

00:54:14.480 and persons

00:54:15.660 and the government

00:54:16.480 from foreign exchange.

00:54:18.480 Now, foreign exchange is Russian.

00:54:21.200 In Russia,

00:54:23.100 just not more than $5,000

00:54:25.400 can be given to

00:54:28.560 either the private person

00:54:29.760 not the company

00:54:30.440 but also for six months

00:54:32.380 and actually even that amount

00:54:34.280 is not available.

00:54:35.840 So, that is why

00:54:36.540 it's a single most important act

00:54:39.520 that have been taken recently.

00:54:44.120 What will be next?

00:54:45.980 Okay, there will be a crisis.

00:54:48.000 There will be depression.

00:54:50.060 Business activity already down by 18%.

00:54:53.220 The forecast for inflation this year

00:54:55.800 would be 60% to 70%.

00:54:57.860 There is a very important,

00:55:00.940 actually, fact.

00:55:01.940 It's an exodus of private companies

00:55:04.520 from Russia.

00:55:06.020 This is probably even more important

00:55:07.860 than the decisions

00:55:08.980 taken by governments.

00:55:11.000 The private sector

00:55:11.960 that actually nobody directed them,

00:55:17.800 nobody gave them orders,

00:55:19.040 but many of the companies,

00:55:20.960 foreign companies,

00:55:21.740 international companies

00:55:22.580 decided to leave Russia

00:55:24.200 regardless of their investments

00:55:26.060 for the last three decades

00:55:28.400 in Russia

00:55:29.580 saying that,

00:55:31.640 okay, they cannot stay in Russia

00:55:32.940 under current circumstances.

00:55:34.860 And this is probably

00:55:35.680 the most important

00:55:36.920 medium to long-term impact

00:55:39.360 on Russian economy.

00:55:41.480 So, Russia economy

00:55:42.420 will come back

00:55:43.240 by the level

00:55:45.040 maybe to the 1990s

00:55:47.240 in terms of international isolation

00:55:50.020 to the period of Soviet Union.

00:55:52.740 Okay, but it would not change

00:55:55.360 calculation of Mr. Putin.

00:55:57.820 It would not change

00:55:59.240 his type of thinking.

00:56:01.160 He does not,

00:56:02.160 he will not change

00:56:03.280 his intentions

00:56:04.740 to wage war against neighbors.

00:56:07.240 So, that is why you need

00:56:08.240 to have some instruments

00:56:10.060 and to use those instruments.

00:56:12.240 Broadway's smash hit,

00:56:13.740 the Neil Diamond musical,

00:56:15.160 A Beautiful Noise,

00:56:16.260 is coming to Toronto.

00:56:18.020 The true story

00:56:18.780 of a kid from Brooklyn

00:56:19.840 destined for something more

00:56:21.380 featuring all the songs you love

00:56:23.140 including America,

00:56:24.600 Forever in Blue Jeans

00:56:25.600 and Sweet Caroline.

00:56:27.280 Like Jersey Boys 0.99

00:56:28.240 and Beautiful,

00:56:29.100 the next musical mega hit is here.

00:56:31.360 The Neil Diamond musical,

00:56:32.960 A Beautiful Noise.

00:56:34.160 April 28th through June 7th,

00:56:36.120 2026,

00:56:37.180 The Princess of Wales Theatre.

00:56:39.100 Get tickets at mirvish.com.

00:56:40.920 I mean,

00:56:44.500 I find what you're saying

00:56:47.480 really interesting, Andre,

00:56:49.400 because the prevailing narrative

00:56:51.120 in the West has been

00:56:52.520 that we don't get involved,

00:56:54.980 we don't escalate tensions.

00:56:57.500 Do you think that's a sign

00:56:58.580 that we've gone soft?

00:57:01.160 It's a sign that you're going

00:57:02.680 to so-called Chamberlain-type

00:57:04.520 policy of 1938.

00:57:06.680 That time it was called

00:57:08.900 appeasement

00:57:09.680 and it was to some extent

00:57:11.660 understood

00:57:12.080 because it was the first time

00:57:13.460 in the history

00:57:14.020 and second,

00:57:14.940 it was under the First World War

00:57:16.560 where Britain and France

00:57:18.560 lost hundreds of thousands

00:57:20.780 of their men

00:57:21.860 and that is why

00:57:22.940 the main narrative

00:57:24.420 was to do everything possible

00:57:26.180 and possible

00:57:26.880 to avoid another world war.

00:57:28.740 But,

00:57:30.920 okay,

00:57:31.300 Mr. Hitler 0.93

00:57:31.860 and Mr. Stalin

00:57:33.280 did have different attitudes

00:57:35.260 and different ideas

00:57:36.140 and they were exploiting

00:57:37.880 these

00:57:38.360 so-called

00:57:39.360 pacifistic

00:57:40.300 attitudes

00:57:41.140 of

00:57:41.840 British

00:57:42.620 and French leaders

00:57:43.940 for their favors.

00:57:45.760 So,

00:57:46.380 we are dealing

00:57:46.960 exactly

00:57:47.760 or almost

00:57:48.680 with a very similar

00:57:50.040 situation

00:57:51.240 right now.

00:57:52.520 So,

00:57:53.040 Britain,

00:57:54.120 France,

00:57:55.100 many other European countries

00:57:56.280 saying,

00:57:56.700 okay,

00:57:56.900 we would like not to be involved.

00:57:58.740 Okay,

00:57:59.220 Britain also

00:57:59.880 did not want to be involved

00:58:01.740 in Czechoslovakia affairs

00:58:04.100 or Sudetenland crisis

00:58:05.700 or

00:58:06.140 to some kind of

00:58:08.000 with Anschluss of Austria

00:58:10.020 with Anschluss of Mehmed.

00:58:12.560 Okay,

00:58:12.960 what happened after that?

00:58:14.480 And after that happened

00:58:15.420 the Second World War

00:58:17.280 with bombing of London,

00:58:19.000 of Coventry

00:58:19.760 and with

00:58:20.820 war

00:58:22.140 arrived to the British soil.

00:58:24.380 So,

00:58:24.740 if you do not stop war 0.59

00:58:26.440 in some other places,

00:58:27.720 war will come to you, 0.99

00:58:29.300 to your homes

00:58:30.280 and to your people.

00:58:34.180 Are you optimistic,

00:58:37.380 Andre,

00:58:37.680 that this will be solved,

00:58:38.920 that finally the West

00:58:40.180 will stand up

00:58:41.640 in the manner

00:58:42.400 that you wish?

00:58:43.900 Or do you think

00:58:45.020 Putin is going to

00:58:46.980 keep infringing,

00:58:48.220 he's going to keep

00:58:48.880 moving forward

00:58:49.680 and eventually

00:58:50.760 war is inevitable?

00:58:53.900 It depends on the decision

00:58:55.480 of Western leaders.

00:58:56.840 It depends on the decision

00:58:58.120 of European leaders.

00:58:59.140 It's not depends on me.

00:59:00.620 It depends on

00:59:01.520 the decision

00:59:02.420 of Western leaders.

00:59:03.640 If they would participate

00:59:04.860 right now

00:59:05.660 with the hardware policies

00:59:07.320 and they will be able

00:59:08.460 to defend Ukraine,

00:59:10.200 yes,

00:59:10.640 there is a very high chance

00:59:11.940 that it will be

00:59:13.080 the last

00:59:13.760 invasion

00:59:14.840 and last aggression

00:59:15.940 from Putin.

00:59:16.500 But if they

00:59:18.620 won't do it,

00:59:20.760 there is a very high

00:59:21.920 probability

00:59:22.480 that the war

00:59:23.120 will come to them,

00:59:24.280 to their houses.

00:59:26.080 And

00:59:26.600 is that really true?

00:59:28.820 I mean,

00:59:29.180 look,

00:59:30.100 let's say

00:59:30.820 for the sake

00:59:31.780 of argument

00:59:32.320 that,

00:59:33.080 and again,

00:59:33.580 I'm playing devil's advocate

00:59:34.660 because what you're saying

00:59:35.920 resonates with a lot

00:59:36.880 of my commentary

00:59:37.860 in recent weeks,

00:59:38.680 but I'm trying

00:59:39.460 to understand

00:59:40.560 my position

00:59:41.620 and your position

00:59:42.400 and to stress test it.

00:59:43.440 So I know

00:59:43.920 you're taking it

00:59:44.600 in that spirit anyway.

00:59:47.220 Let's say

00:59:48.020 Ukraine

00:59:48.860 succumbs

00:59:50.040 to Putin,

00:59:51.100 he takes over,

00:59:51.880 he,

00:59:52.220 you know,

00:59:53.140 installs a puppet

00:59:53.960 government,

00:59:54.840 etc.

00:59:56.120 Do you really,

00:59:56.800 are you really

00:59:57.500 trying to tell

00:59:58.260 people in the West

00:59:59.260 that Putin

01:00:00.700 would then attack

01:00:01.660 a NATO country

01:00:02.640 knowing full well

01:00:03.900 that NATO

01:00:04.760 is now taking

01:00:06.180 the situation

01:00:06.920 seriously

01:00:07.520 and that NATO

01:00:08.500 would respond

01:00:09.340 and NATO may

01:00:10.380 strike back 0.54

01:00:11.480 even with nuclear weapons

01:00:12.520 if it feels

01:00:13.080 that it has to?

01:00:14.040 Are you really saying

01:00:15.140 he's going to try

01:00:16.240 and connect

01:00:16.740 Kaliningrad,

01:00:17.540 for example,

01:00:18.200 through Lithuania

01:00:19.700 and Latvia

01:00:20.200 in that way?

01:00:22.180 Probably you've heard

01:00:23.280 these stories

01:00:25.340 from survivors

01:00:26.600 of Nazi 0.56

01:00:27.540 concentration camps.

01:00:29.480 At least they became

01:00:30.440 relatively popular.

01:00:32.400 If somebody

01:00:33.180 threatens to kill

01:00:34.900 you, 1.00

01:00:36.880 take it seriously.

01:00:39.680 Do not think

01:00:40.360 that's a joke.

01:00:42.520 Once again,

01:00:43.000 it's not from me,

01:00:43.820 from survivors

01:00:44.560 of Nazi 0.56

01:00:45.780 concentration camps.

01:00:47.340 Now we have

01:00:47.920 a person

01:00:48.420 who repeating

01:00:50.080 again

01:00:52.140 and again

01:00:52.920 and again

01:00:53.600 he is going

01:00:54.860 to come

01:00:55.400 to the 1997

01:00:56.560 division line.

01:00:58.320 He is repeating

01:00:59.260 not only in December

01:01:00.320 last year,

01:01:00.940 but in January

01:01:01.700 this year,

01:01:02.440 in February

01:01:02.860 this year,

01:01:04.280 on March 8th

01:01:05.740 and 9th,

01:01:06.400 it's already

01:01:06.900 two weeks

01:01:08.020 after launching

01:01:09.500 his attack

01:01:10.360 on Ukraine.

01:01:11.500 He is repeating

01:01:12.180 and then again,

01:01:13.200 my purpose

01:01:13.880 is denatization

01:01:15.260 of Europe.

01:01:16.380 My goal

01:01:17.260 is to return

01:01:18.320 NATO

01:01:18.700 to 1997

01:01:19.480 division line.

01:01:21.460 My goal

01:01:22.320 is to have

01:01:23.460 Baltic countries,

01:01:25.140 Poland,

01:01:25.760 Romania,

01:01:26.300 and Bulgaria.

01:01:26.800 They are repeating

01:01:27.500 that right now.

01:01:29.560 So why

01:01:30.140 I should not

01:01:30.940 believe Mr. Putin?

01:01:31.940 For the reason

01:01:34.360 that you gave

01:01:34.940 earlier,

01:01:35.340 which is you said

01:01:35.960 he is the most

01:01:37.140 rational person

01:01:38.040 you've ever met

01:01:38.760 and it's clearly

01:01:40.020 an irrational act

01:01:41.180 to attack

01:01:41.700 a nuclear alliance,

01:01:43.380 isn't it?

01:01:44.660 No.

01:01:45.340 Looking what

01:01:46.040 is the response

01:01:47.240 from the current

01:01:48.080 US administration,

01:01:49.500 it's no doubt

01:01:50.440 for me that

01:01:51.120 if Putin moved

01:01:52.040 to Baltic countries,

01:01:53.600 there will be

01:01:53.980 no response

01:01:54.640 from NATO,

01:01:55.860 at least

01:01:56.260 from NATO

01:01:57.600 under the current

01:01:58.620 US administration.

01:02:00.720 No.

01:02:00.960 And that is

01:02:01.980 why Putin

01:02:02.520 is Russian

01:02:03.560 so much

01:02:04.240 because he needs

01:02:05.360 to finish

01:02:05.860 all his business

01:02:06.780 before year 2024.

01:02:09.120 It is absolutely

01:02:09.860 clear because

01:02:10.580 he was actually

01:02:12.240 very quiet

01:02:13.180 when there was

01:02:15.580 another US president.

01:02:17.600 He was very quiet

01:02:18.200 under George Bush

01:02:20.100 and under Trump

01:02:22.220 because he did not

01:02:23.240 Would this have

01:02:23.780 happened if Trump

01:02:24.560 was in power?

01:02:25.820 No,

01:02:26.180 because under Trump

01:02:27.820 the Russian mercenaries

01:02:29.140 have been destroyed

01:02:30.040 in Syria.

01:02:30.960 And after that,

01:02:33.520 surprise,

01:02:34.060 surprise,

01:02:34.420 there was no

01:02:34.960 any provocations

01:02:35.940 on the Russian

01:02:36.860 side in Syria.

01:02:38.080 And in Ukraine,

01:02:39.280 there was a

01:02:39.660 substantial decline

01:02:40.720 in hostilities.

01:02:42.020 And even there

01:02:42.540 was so-called

01:02:43.560 the,

01:02:44.180 not amnisties,

01:02:45.780 but there was

01:02:46.160 a very substantial

01:02:46.960 decline

01:02:47.620 in shootings

01:02:49.260 in the line

01:02:50.920 in Donbas.

01:02:52.600 Everything

01:02:53.240 has changed

01:02:53.940 on January 21st,

01:02:55.980 year 2021,

01:02:56.860 next day

01:02:58.600 after Biden

01:02:59.360 became US

01:03:00.260 president.

01:03:01.380 The shootings,

01:03:02.460 the number

01:03:02.800 of shootings

01:03:03.220 increased 10 times.

01:03:05.180 The number

01:03:05.780 of Ukrainian

01:03:06.580 military

01:03:07.320 being killed

01:03:09.400 in Donbas

01:03:10.280 increased 10 times.

01:03:11.920 And exactly

01:03:13.120 from that moment,

01:03:14.600 Putin started 0.53

01:03:15.340 to mass

01:03:16.120 his troops

01:03:17.560 on the Ukrainian

01:03:18.260 border.

01:03:18.800 It did not

01:03:19.680 happen under Trump.

01:03:21.380 It happened

01:03:22.260 with Mr.

01:03:22.940 Biden.

01:03:24.020 So that is why

01:03:24.740 Putin understands

01:03:26.080 very well

01:03:26.700 that he has

01:03:27.280 a window of

01:03:27.880 opportunity

01:03:28.520 until Biden

01:03:30.140 is the president

01:03:31.000 of the United

01:03:31.540 States.

01:03:31.900 so that is

01:03:32.740 why he would

01:03:33.240 try to do

01:03:33.740 everything

01:03:34.120 possible

01:03:34.620 and impossible

01:03:35.300 within this

01:03:36.420 short period

01:03:36.900 of time

01:03:37.380 until at

01:03:38.640 least 2024.

01:03:41.580 And,

01:03:42.240 Andre,

01:03:42.620 do you think

01:03:43.260 that the

01:03:43.740 debacle

01:03:44.220 in Afghanistan

01:03:45.220 influenced

01:03:46.860 Putin's 0.59

01:03:47.460 thinking?

01:03:48.440 Watching

01:03:48.820 what the

01:03:49.180 US did,

01:03:50.440 watching how

01:03:51.160 they messed

01:03:51.760 it up,

01:03:52.620 the complete

01:03:53.120 disaster,

01:03:54.420 do you think

01:03:54.880 that just

01:03:55.340 solidified

01:03:56.120 his decision?

01:03:58.080 No,

01:03:58.700 it was just

01:03:59.440 additional

01:04:00.080 element

01:04:01.240 in his

01:04:01.960 thinking

01:04:02.260 because once

01:04:02.880 again,

01:04:03.240 I mentioned

01:04:03.920 this,

01:04:04.940 that Putin

01:04:05.640 has started

01:04:06.340 to act

01:04:08.040 actively

01:04:08.720 against Ukraine

01:04:09.700 in other

01:04:10.040 directions

01:04:10.460 from January

01:04:11.740 21st,

01:04:12.860 2021,

01:04:13.920 before

01:04:14.180 debacle

01:04:14.640 in Afghanistan

01:04:15.900 because Putin

01:04:17.440 knew Mr.

01:04:18.360 Biden

01:04:18.600 very well

01:04:19.340 because Mr.

01:04:20.700 Biden

01:04:20.940 traveled to

01:04:21.760 Moscow

01:04:22.200 even in

01:04:23.080 Soviet times

01:04:23.720 in 1978

01:04:24.760 and during

01:04:26.240 the meeting

01:04:26.820 with his

01:04:28.120 friends from

01:04:28.900 the Politburo

01:04:29.940 of Central

01:04:30.620 Committee of

01:04:31.160 Communist Party,

01:04:32.520 Mr.

01:04:32.880 Biden

01:04:33.180 betrayed

01:04:34.020 Russian

01:04:34.580 Soviet

01:04:35.120 dissidents.

01:04:36.440 It is

01:04:36.800 on the

01:04:37.580 record.

01:04:38.080 Mr.

01:04:38.380 Bukowski

01:04:38.840 in his

01:04:39.900 archive

01:04:40.500 actually put

01:04:41.780 all these

01:04:42.240 documents

01:04:42.840 on website.

01:04:44.440 You can

01:04:44.700 read them

01:04:45.320 both in

01:04:45.960 Russian

01:04:46.220 and English.

01:04:47.360 So that

01:04:47.660 is why

01:04:47.900 the position

01:04:48.420 of Mr.

01:04:49.000 Biden

01:04:49.220 towards

01:04:49.680 Soviet

01:04:50.560 dissidents

01:04:51.060 in

01:04:51.280 1978

01:04:51.940 to South

01:04:52.600 Vietnamese

01:04:53.080 in

01:04:53.680 1975

01:04:54.400 to

01:04:55.060 Kurds 0.99

01:04:55.940 later

01:04:56.800 is

01:04:57.680 very

01:04:58.060 well

01:04:58.440 known.

01:04:59.900 Mr.

01:05:00.300 Biden

01:05:00.580 it is

01:05:01.200 his

01:05:01.640 position

01:05:03.060 through

01:05:03.440 all

01:05:03.880 his

01:05:04.180 life.

01:05:05.180 So that

01:05:05.480 is why

01:05:05.760 Afghans 1.00

01:05:06.340 were not

01:05:07.020 first

01:05:07.620 nations

01:05:08.120 that have

01:05:08.520 been

01:05:08.700 betrayed

01:05:09.100 by him

01:05:09.660 and

01:05:10.380 Ukrainians

01:05:10.920 is not

01:05:11.460 the

01:05:11.640 first

01:05:11.860 nations.

01:05:12.280 There are

01:05:12.900 many

01:05:13.140 others

01:05:13.660 before

01:05:14.620 that

01:05:15.320 case.

01:05:16.200 So that

01:05:16.520 is why

01:05:16.900 it was

01:05:17.320 not hard

01:05:17.840 to predict

01:05:18.420 what kind

01:05:18.920 of

01:05:19.600 policies

01:05:20.360 and what

01:05:20.700 kind

01:05:20.860 of

01:05:21.040 actions

01:05:21.500 will be

01:05:21.940 from

01:05:22.160 Mr.

01:05:22.520 Biden.

01:05:23.340 So that

01:05:23.700 is why

01:05:24.000 Putin

01:05:24.280 started

01:05:24.620 to act

01:05:25.280 on

01:05:25.600 January

01:05:25.920 21st.

01:05:26.760 And what

01:05:27.220 happened

01:05:27.480 with

01:05:27.680 Afghanistan

01:05:28.100 only

01:05:28.840 reinforced

01:05:30.000 his

01:05:30.540 thinking

01:05:31.940 because he

01:05:32.600 said it

01:05:33.160 was exactly

01:05:33.840 that we

01:05:34.360 expected.

01:05:35.720 And you

01:05:36.180 remember by

01:05:36.800 the way

01:05:37.080 it was

01:05:37.420 not only

01:05:37.800 debacle

01:05:38.220 in

01:05:38.560 Afghanistan

01:05:39.060 after

01:05:39.820 what

01:05:40.060 happened

01:05:40.520 in

01:05:41.380 Afghanistan

01:05:41.880 what

01:05:43.520 happened

01:05:43.900 Mr.

01:05:44.340 Biden

01:05:44.820 asked

01:05:45.300 Mr.

01:05:45.720 Putin

01:05:45.920 to

01:05:46.180 deploy

01:05:46.620 American

01:05:47.680 troops

01:05:48.200 in

01:05:48.820 Central

01:05:49.180 Asian

01:05:49.560 countries

01:05:50.120 in

01:05:51.240 Tajikistan

01:05:52.140 and

01:05:52.460 Kyrgyzstan

01:05:53.100 in

01:05:53.320 Uzbekistan.

01:05:54.700 What a

01:05:55.160 shock

01:05:55.520 United

01:05:56.440 States

01:05:56.960 president

01:05:57.520 is

01:05:58.240 asking

01:05:58.920 is

01:05:59.600 requesting

01:06:00.300 the

01:06:01.180 international

01:06:01.800 attack

01:06:02.420 and

01:06:02.660 aggressor

01:06:03.340 to

01:06:03.760 deploy

01:06:04.280 American

01:06:05.780 troops

01:06:06.200 in

01:06:06.760 the

01:06:06.940 third

01:06:07.180 countries.

01:06:08.800 That's

01:06:09.000 it.

01:06:09.560 It's

01:06:10.140 kind of

01:06:10.500 it's

01:06:10.780 confirmation

01:06:11.460 of the

01:06:12.200 imperial

01:06:12.680 type of

01:06:13.180 thinking

01:06:13.540 already

01:06:14.220 not only

01:06:14.720 in part

01:06:15.080 of Mr.

01:06:15.660 Putin

01:06:15.920 but on

01:06:16.360 the part

01:06:16.640 of Mr.

01:06:17.120 Biden

01:06:17.400 because

01:06:18.180 Mr.

01:06:18.500 Biden

01:06:19.160 is

01:06:20.440 thinking

01:06:21.000 in the

01:06:21.800 type

01:06:22.380 of

01:06:22.600 sphere

01:06:23.040 of

01:06:23.240 influences.

01:06:24.520 It

01:06:25.020 already

01:06:25.580 gave

01:06:26.100 Central

01:06:26.580 Asia

01:06:27.080 to

01:06:27.980 sphere

01:06:28.360 of

01:06:28.580 influence

01:06:29.140 of

01:06:29.480 Putin

01:06:29.820 and

01:06:30.540 that

01:06:30.760 is

01:06:30.900 why

01:06:31.100 he

01:06:31.280 was

01:06:31.460 asking

01:06:31.840 Putin

01:06:32.200 for

01:06:32.800 permission.

01:06:35.340 How

01:06:35.560 it is

01:06:35.800 possible

01:06:36.540 that

01:06:37.660 United

01:06:38.900 States

01:06:39.400 president

01:06:39.920 would be

01:06:40.580 discussing

01:06:41.220 with

01:06:41.580 anybody

01:06:42.040 else

01:06:42.460 except

01:06:42.980 of the

01:06:43.540 leadership

01:06:44.220 of these

01:06:44.820 particular

01:06:45.260 countries

01:06:45.740 whether

01:06:46.200 it's

01:06:46.420 possible

01:06:46.760 or not

01:06:47.320 possible.

01:06:47.780 this

01:06:48.520 is

01:06:48.660 a

01:06:48.800 reflection

01:06:49.280 of

01:06:49.840 sphere

01:06:50.660 of

01:06:50.880 influences

01:06:51.540 in

01:06:52.340 Mr.

01:06:52.740 Biden's

01:06:53.380 mind

01:06:54.920 and

01:06:55.360 in

01:06:55.700 the

01:06:55.880 minds

01:06:56.220 of

01:06:56.580 his

01:06:56.920 colleagues.

01:06:59.500 Well

01:06:59.980 Antonin

01:07:00.740 Kalevich

01:07:01.080 it's

01:07:01.200 been a

01:07:01.620 brilliant

01:07:01.860 interview

01:07:02.240 thank you

01:07:02.660 so much

01:07:03.040 for your

01:07:03.320 time

01:07:03.620 we're

01:07:04.500 going to

01:07:04.640 ask you

01:07:04.880 a couple

01:07:05.160 of

01:07:05.360 questions

01:07:05.720 from

01:07:06.100 our

01:07:06.320 local

01:07:06.620 supporters

01:07:07.180 that

01:07:07.400 only

01:07:07.640 they

01:07:07.820 will

01:07:07.980 see

01:07:08.160 but

01:07:08.340 before

01:07:08.620 we

01:07:08.800 do

01:07:08.920 we've

01:07:09.100 got

01:07:09.220 about

01:07:10.040 three

01:07:10.300 or

01:07:10.420 four

01:07:10.560 minutes

01:07:10.800 normally

01:07:11.400 we

01:07:11.620 say

01:07:11.920 what's

01:07:12.560 the

01:07:12.680 one

01:07:12.860 thing

01:07:13.060 we're

01:07:13.220 not

01:07:13.380 talking

01:07:13.700 about

01:07:13.980 as a

01:07:14.280 society

01:07:14.640 that we

01:07:14.940 should

01:07:15.120 be

01:07:15.240 but

01:07:15.440 in

01:07:15.580 your

01:07:15.960 case

01:07:16.300 I

01:07:16.760 think

01:07:16.900 you

01:07:17.000 have

01:07:17.180 such

01:07:17.400 an

01:07:17.540 interesting

01:07:17.860 and

01:07:18.080 very

01:07:18.240 different

01:07:18.560 perspective

01:07:19.020 to

01:07:19.240 most

01:07:19.460 people

01:07:19.800 what

01:07:20.600 else

01:07:20.880 should

01:07:21.120 people

01:07:21.440 know

01:07:21.780 about

01:07:22.100 Russia

01:07:22.480 and

01:07:22.680 Ukraine

01:07:23.060 the

01:07:23.280 current

01:07:23.580 situation

01:07:24.120 what

01:07:24.720 haven't

01:07:25.060 we

01:07:25.220 discussed

01:07:25.640 what

01:07:25.940 is

01:07:26.120 really

01:07:26.420 important

01:07:26.880 for

01:07:27.080 people

01:07:27.300 to

01:07:27.500 understand

01:07:27.920 about

01:07:28.160 this

01:07:28.360 situation

01:07:28.820 that

01:07:29.140 you

01:07:29.640 think

01:07:29.920 isn't

01:07:30.240 being

01:07:30.440 talked

01:07:30.720 about

01:07:30.960 enough

01:07:31.300 there

01:07:32.720 are

01:07:32.840 many

01:07:33.020 things

01:07:33.300 to

01:07:33.600 talk

01:07:33.960 about

01:07:34.260 but

01:07:34.460 just

01:07:34.680 probably

01:07:35.040 one

01:07:35.360 of

01:07:35.500 the

01:07:35.800 topics

01:07:36.320 that

01:07:36.540 we

01:07:36.680 just

01:07:36.920 touched

01:07:37.220 a

01:07:37.440 little

01:07:37.600 bit

01:07:37.820 would

01:07:37.980 be

01:07:38.420 useful

01:07:40.080 for

01:07:41.160 our

01:07:41.460 audience

01:07:41.880 we

01:07:42.620 need

01:07:42.800 to

01:07:42.920 understand

01:07:43.300 that

01:07:43.680 Mr.

01:07:44.160 Putin

01:07:44.460 was

01:07:44.960 able

01:07:45.400 to

01:07:45.740 act

01:07:46.160 so

01:07:46.560 aggressively

01:07:47.220 and

01:07:47.540 so

01:07:47.740 cynically

01:07:48.320 and

01:07:48.540 so

01:07:48.740 rudely 0.90

01:07:49.120 only

01:07:50.220 if

01:07:51.260 there

01:07:51.420 is

01:07:51.560 a

01:07:51.680 support

01:07:52.160 from

01:07:53.060 some

01:07:53.480 Western

01:07:53.860 capitals

01:07:54.440 if

01:07:55.660 such

01:07:56.040 support

01:07:57.340 that's

01:07:57.960 it

01:07:58.240 hidden

01:07:58.920 support

01:07:59.740 did

01:08:00.320 not

01:08:00.540 exist

01:08:00.980 Putin

01:08:02.160 would

01:08:02.420 never

01:08:02.700 attack

01:08:03.120 Ukraine

01:08:03.540 and

01:08:04.780 thousands

01:08:05.180 of

01:08:05.420 people

01:08:05.640 would

01:08:05.860 never

01:08:06.060 be

01:08:06.300 killed 1.00

01:08:06.760 that 0.99

01:08:07.500 people

01:08:07.800 should

01:08:08.120 understand

01:08:08.680 and

01:08:09.280 the

01:08:09.460 basis

01:08:09.920 and

01:08:10.240 the

01:08:10.420 root

01:08:10.660 of

01:08:11.320 this

01:08:11.680 support

01:08:12.580 for

01:08:12.980 Mr.

01:08:13.320 Putin

01:08:13.540 is

01:08:14.260 exactly

01:08:14.640 this

01:08:14.980 particular

01:08:15.440 type

01:08:15.780 of

01:08:15.940 thinking

01:08:16.360 sphere

01:08:17.520 of

01:08:17.760 influences

01:08:18.360 it's

01:08:19.240 exactly

01:08:19.560 what

01:08:19.740 you

01:08:19.880 mentioned

01:08:20.280 you

01:08:21.160 remember

01:08:21.540 when

01:08:21.960 you

01:08:22.180 reminded

01:08:23.160 about

01:08:23.740 John

01:08:24.000 Mishmeyer

01:08:24.660 in his

01:08:25.640 thinking

01:08:25.980 it's

01:08:26.420 exactly

01:08:26.800 this

01:08:27.120 school

01:08:27.480 of

01:08:27.900 so

01:08:28.200 called

01:08:28.400 international

01:08:28.900 relations

01:08:29.500 or

01:08:30.020 diplomacy

01:08:30.440 and

01:08:31.060 it

01:08:31.200 is

01:08:31.360 exactly

01:08:31.760 the

01:08:31.980 school

01:08:32.260 of

01:08:32.460 thought

01:08:32.680 that

01:08:32.900 has

01:08:33.060 been

01:08:33.240 shared

01:08:33.540 by

01:08:33.760 Mr.

01:08:34.060 Biden

01:08:34.440 by

01:08:35.660 Mr.

01:08:36.360 Burns

01:08:36.680 CIA

01:08:37.220 directed

01:08:37.760 by

01:08:38.040 Mr.

01:08:38.480 Blinken 0.98

01:08:38.820 the

01:08:39.580 state

01:08:40.080 secretary

01:08:40.460 of the

01:08:40.740 United

01:08:40.940 States

01:08:41.260 and

01:08:41.500 the

01:08:41.620 current

01:08:41.840 US

01:08:42.060 administration

01:08:42.580 this

01:08:43.380 is

01:08:43.520 a

01:08:43.680 root

01:08:44.460 this

01:08:44.820 is

01:08:44.980 a

01:08:45.160 problem

01:08:45.760 this

01:08:46.300 is

01:08:46.420 a

01:08:46.520 problem

01:08:46.740 on

01:08:47.080 the

01:08:47.260 West

01:08:47.580 and

01:08:48.200 that

01:08:48.380 is

01:08:48.540 why

01:08:48.800 the

01:08:49.000 YouTube

01:08:49.400 is

01:08:49.880 spreading

01:08:50.400 these

01:08:50.960 statements

01:08:51.860 from

01:08:52.400 John

01:08:53.280 Mishmeyer

01:08:53.820 or

01:08:54.220 Vladimir

01:08:54.700 Pozner

01:08:55.240 and

01:08:55.940 so on

01:08:56.360 this

01:08:57.040 is

01:08:57.200 a

01:08:57.340 school

01:08:57.660 of

01:08:57.960 thought

01:08:58.240 that

01:08:58.540 deprive

01:08:59.480 independent

01:09:00.420 nations

01:09:00.960 from

01:09:01.240 their

01:09:01.840 sovereignty

01:09:02.460 from

01:09:03.360 their

01:09:03.720 independent

01:09:04.380 choice

01:09:04.900 whether

01:09:05.520 they

01:09:05.760 would

01:09:05.940 like

01:09:06.180 to

01:09:06.360 develop

01:09:06.800 and

01:09:07.600 to

01:09:07.820 join

01:09:08.560 Western

01:09:09.460 Union

01:09:10.100 or

01:09:10.600 whether

01:09:11.100 they

01:09:11.980 would

01:09:12.180 like

01:09:12.380 to

01:09:12.540 be

01:09:12.820 within

01:09:13.640 civilization

01:09:14.740 or

01:09:15.220 they

01:09:15.480 would

01:09:15.760 be

01:09:16.000 under

01:09:16.400 the

01:09:16.780 boat

01:09:17.320 from

01:09:18.360 Kremlin

01:09:19.660 or

01:09:20.200 any

01:09:20.520 other

01:09:20.780 dictator

01:09:21.220 thank

01:09:23.640 you so

01:09:23.980 much

01:09:24.180 for

01:09:24.320 your

01:09:24.460 time

01:09:24.680 it's

01:09:24.940 been

01:09:25.080 a

01:09:25.200 real

01:09:25.360 pleasure

01:09:25.680 if

01:09:25.880 people

01:09:26.120 want

01:09:26.360 to

01:09:26.540 follow

01:09:26.880 more

01:09:27.580 of

01:09:27.720 your

01:09:27.840 commentary

01:09:28.300 where

01:09:28.680 is

01:09:28.780 the

01:09:28.900 best

01:09:29.060 place

01:09:29.300 to

01:09:29.440 do

01:09:29.560 that

01:09:29.800 okay

01:09:30.980 I'm

01:09:31.240 writing

01:09:31.760 regularly

01:09:32.780 on

01:09:33.200 my

01:09:33.620 blog

01:09:34.780 in

01:09:35.020 live

01:09:35.260 journal

01:09:35.680 dot

01:09:36.200 com

01:09:36.620 a

01:09:37.920 ylarionov

01:09:39.080 dot

01:09:39.620 live

01:09:39.880 journal

01:09:40.220 dot

01:09:40.620 com

01:09:40.980 and

01:09:41.320 also

01:09:41.640 Facebook

01:09:42.300 andrei

01:09:45.500 larionov

01:09:46.140 seven

01:09:46.680 okay

01:09:48.100 so

01:09:48.420 just

01:09:48.860 welcome

01:09:50.040 we'll

01:09:51.480 make sure

01:09:51.900 to get

01:09:52.540 the links

01:09:52.980 in the

01:09:53.320 description

01:09:53.660 of the

01:09:53.980 video

01:09:54.220 we thank

01:09:55.120 you for

01:09:55.420 now

01:09:55.620 we thank

01:09:56.020 all our

01:09:56.340 audience

01:09:56.540 for watching

01:09:57.020 and listening

01:09:57.480 and we

01:09:58.500 will ask

01:09:58.900 you a 0.57

01:09:59.100 couple of

01:09:59.460 questions

01:09:59.800 for our

01:10:00.140 supporters

01:10:00.540 in a

01:10:00.920 second

01:10:01.160 but with

01:10:01.460 that

01:10:01.620 thank you

01:10:02.140 so much

01:10:02.520 thanks

01:10:02.760 for

01:10:02.920 watching

01:10:03.180 we'll

01:10:03.380 see

01:10:03.520 you

01:10:03.640 very

01:10:03.800 soon

01:10:04.000 with

01:10:04.140 another

01:10:04.320 brilliant

01:10:04.620 interview

01:10:04.920 like

01:10:05.140 this

01:10:05.320 one

01:10:05.520 and

01:10:06.180 they

01:10:06.320 always

01:10:06.880 go

01:10:07.120 out

01:10:07.280 Wednesdays

01:10:07.800 and

01:10:07.920 Sundays

01:10:08.340 or

01:10:08.640 all

01:10:08.880 shows

01:10:09.200 go

01:10:09.440 out

01:10:09.720 on

01:10:10.240 Thursdays

01:10:10.900 Fridays

01:10:11.260 and

01:10:11.660 Saturdays

01:10:12.200 and

01:10:12.500 for

01:10:12.640 those

01:10:12.840 of

01:10:13.000 you

01:10:13.160 who

01:10:13.560 like

01:10:13.740 your

01:10:13.880 trigonometry

01:10:14.460 on the

01:10:14.960 go

01:10:15.160 it's

01:10:15.700 also

01:10:15.920 available

01:10:16.260 as a

01:10:16.580 podcast

01:10:17.040 take care

01:10:17.940 and see

01:10:18.440 you soon

01:10:18.780 guys

01:10:19.140 how likely

01:10:22.180 is a palace

01:10:23.060 coup

01:10:23.460 that would

01:10:24.440 remove

01:10:24.940 Vladimir Putin

01:10:25.680 from power

01:10:40.240 broadway

01:10:42.560 smash hit

01:10:43.520 the Neil

01:10:44.000 Diamond

01:10:44.300 musical

01:10:44.840 a

01:10:45.260 beautiful

01:10:45.720 noise

01:10:46.360 is coming

01:10:47.060 to

01:10:47.260 Toronto

01:10:47.680 the

01:10:48.040 true

01:10:48.320 story

01:10:48.720 of a

01:10:49.000 kid

01:10:49.180 from

01:10:49.400 Brooklyn

01:10:49.780 destined

01:10:50.300 for

01:10:50.540 something

01:10:50.900 more

01:10:51.300 featuring

01:10:51.740 all the

01:10:52.180 songs

01:10:52.460 you

01:10:52.660 love

01:10:53.080 including

01:10:53.580 America

01:10:54.220 forever

01:10:54.760 in

01:10:54.960 blue

01:10:55.180 jeans

01:10:55.540 and

01:10:55.860 sweet

01:10:56.180 Caroline

01:10:56.740 like

01:10:57.400 Jersey

01:10:57.800 boys

01:10:58.200 and

01:10:58.440 beautiful

01:10:58.840 the

01:10:59.160 next

01:10:59.480 musical

01:10:59.960 mega

01:11:00.360 hit

01:11:00.600 is

01:11:00.760 here

01:11:01.100 the

01:11:01.420 Neil

01:11:01.700 Diamond

01:11:02.060 musical

01:11:02.600 a

01:11:03.060 beautiful

01:11:03.440 noise

01:11:03.960 now

01:11:04.220 through

01:11:04.500 June

01:11:04.760 7th

01:11:05.280 2026

01:11:06.080 at

01:11:06.580 the

01:11:06.740 Princess

01:11:07.040 of

01:11:07.300 Wales

01:11:07.540 Theatre

01:11:07.940 get

01:11:08.400 tickets

01:11:08.720 at

01:11:08.920 Murbish.com

TRIGGERnometry - March 24, 2022

Ex-Putin Advisor：＂He Must Be Stopped＂

Episode Stats

Summary

Transcript

TRIGGERnometry - March 24, 2022

Ex-Putin Advisor： ＂He Must Be Stopped＂

Episode Stats

Summary

Transcript

Ex-Putin Advisor：＂He Must Be Stopped＂