TRIGGERnometry - How Your DNA Made You Who You Are - Robert Plomin

00:00:00.000 I think the DNA revolution hasn't quite sunk in.

00:00:03.280 This isn't like a lot of medical things.

00:00:05.400 If you ever notice, you hear of a discovery and they say,

00:00:08.040 in 10 years, this is going to be big.

00:00:09.540 That means they have no idea if it's going to happen.

00:00:11.900 If they say five years, it means maybe it'll happen.

00:00:14.640 But the point about this is it's happening now.

00:00:16.960 And this is really transformational.

00:00:25.340 Hello and welcome to Trigonometry.

00:00:27.960 I'm Francis Foster.

00:00:29.020 I'm Constantine Kishin.

00:00:30.520 And this is a show for you if you want honest conversations with fascinating people.

00:00:36.140 It does not get any more fascinating than the brilliant guest we have for you today.

00:00:40.940 He is a geneticist and the author of Blueprint, How DNA Makes Us Who We Are.

00:00:45.660 Professor Robert Plowman, welcome to Trigonometry.

00:00:47.420 Thank you very much. I'm really pleased to be here.

00:00:49.140 Oh, we are so grateful to have you here.

00:00:51.040 We can't wait for the conversation we're going to have.

00:00:53.340 Before we do, though, tell everybody a little bit about your story through life.

00:00:56.680 You've written this great book, of course.

00:00:59.680 You're one of the most cited people in your field in the world.

00:01:03.540 You've done incredible studies with twins.

00:01:05.960 Tell us about your life, your academic career, the history of how you are here talking to us.

00:01:11.700 Well, that can take us a few hours.

00:01:14.580 I'll try to give you the two-minute version of it.

00:01:17.460 You know, I've been doing research in this area for 50 years.

00:01:19.840 And when I started back in 1970, in psychology, you couldn't really talk about genetics, given Nazi Germany. 0.92

00:01:27.360 And the fact that psychology was completely environmentalistic, the idea that everything we are is what we learned, what our mothers did to us in the first few years of life.

00:01:35.920 And so, it's been very rewarding for me to see over the 40 years as data piled up and convinced most reasonable scientists and, I think, society as a whole that genetics is important.

00:01:48.960 You know, I haven't been called a Nazi for 30 years, probably.

00:01:51.800 But, you know, back when I started, it was really dangerous, professionally and politically, to even talk about genetics.

00:01:58.260 So, that's been really rewarding to see.

00:02:00.400 And that's why I wrote this book a few years ago, because after 50 years of research in this field, where I was kind of keeping my head down, I'm kind of embarrassed to say, because I wanted to do the research.

00:02:09.320 I didn't want to get distracted.

00:02:11.360 So, I didn't respond to people who attacked me, you know, because I thought, in the end, if psychology is going to be a science, it'll be convinced by data.

00:02:18.740 So, keep your nose down, collect the data.

00:02:20.380 And that really did happen, you know, so much data piled up that any reasonable person looking at this amount of data from adoption studies, twin studies, now DNA studies, you just can't ignore the importance of genetic differences between people.

00:02:35.320 So, that's what my book is called, Blueprint, How DNA Makes Us Who We Are.

00:02:40.060 And there's a lot to say about that, you know.

00:02:42.660 You sort of have to start in media res, you know, where there's so much background you have to try to fill in,

00:02:48.660 because nature, nurture makes us who we are, not as humans.

00:02:53.160 We're talking about why we differ between each other, and we've got 3 billion base pairs of DNA that we inherit from our parents.

00:03:01.200 We're only talking about the 1% that differs between us, because that's what makes us different. 1.00

00:03:06.440 So, there's so many things like that to talk about, and maybe we'll get into that as the conversation goes along.

00:03:11.660 But is that enough of a story?

00:03:12.340 Oh, absolutely.

00:03:13.320 Well, we'll get to that right away.

00:03:15.720 But actually, just very quickly, you mentioned, you know, not being called bad, terrible things for a while.

00:03:22.260 What has, you know, you've been in that sphere for 50 years.

00:03:26.560 How have you observed some of the sort of ebbs and flows of the ability to freedom of research and freedom of expression and that sort of thing in academia?

00:03:35.260 Yeah, well, I'm puzzled by the current culture of academia.

00:03:42.040 I don't know where that came from, because I was always interested in science, because you can explore anything, as long as it's empirical.

00:03:48.460 And there's issues like religious issues that, you know, you really can't tackle empirically.

00:03:53.880 But I want to study things that are tractable empirically, and then you have your view, I have mine.

00:03:58.820 That's fun.

00:03:59.400 Let's do research and figure out who's right.

00:04:02.680 You know, so that's the sort of stuff I like to do.

00:04:05.700 And so it's been appalling for me to, well, when I was in the States, there was a rise in the religious right, and you couldn't talk about God issues.

00:04:15.980 Not a big deal, but I felt it was less open.

00:04:20.220 And that bothered me a lot, because, you know, if universities should be anything, they should be a place where you can talk about anything, you know, as adults, you know, which is what I like about this podcast so much.

00:04:30.260 I'd like to see you two guys disagree with each other and show people, you know, you can disagree about some pretty profound things and, you know, still be friends and actually enjoy the discussion.

00:04:42.540 So in the early 90s, I had an opportunity to come to the UK, and my wife at that time was British and tried living in the States and didn't like it.

00:04:52.420 And I had this view from my time, we spent most of our summers in Britain, and I got to, you know, she was from Cambridge, and so I got to know quite a few people.

00:05:00.880 And I had the feeling that things were more open in the UK, and I have now come to realize that's only because Americans are not subtle, you know, and that it's more Chinese whisper stuff, you know, whereas in America, it's right in your face, you know, people coming up and disagreeing with you.

00:05:21.020 And so I don't think it's as open as I thought it was, but I'm at a place at the Institute of Psychiatry with some of the brightest people I know, and there you really can talk about anything.

00:05:33.020 So from a genetics point of view, I went from not being able to talk about genetics to now being asked to give talks to public groups and lots of people about genetics.

00:05:45.680 So everyone seems to be interested in genetics, and I don't know if I'm Pollyannish about it, but I think it's partly because the data has just built up.

00:05:53.220 I could have wasted my time, I think, trying to argue with people, but as a scientist, I thought, no, it's better.

00:05:58.860 Just take a long view of it and collect the data and hope that it stays in empirical science, where in the end, data rules, you know?

00:06:09.060 And so I think that's kind of spread into society.

00:06:12.440 The other thing that's come along that's been huge in the last 20 years is the DNA revolution, because you can argue about twin studies, adoption studies, you can't argue with DNA.

00:06:22.740 When you show that this bit of inherited DNA relates to that trait, it's kind of, what can you say, really?

00:06:30.180 So for all those reasons, I think science has certainly become not just accepting, but really enthusiastic about genetics.

00:06:39.740 It's one of the hottest areas in the life sciences now.

00:06:43.500 But I also think in society as a whole, you know, when my book came out, I was really worried about the reception.

00:06:49.880 And when I gave these public lectures, you know, people were very keen on it.

00:06:56.260 I didn't get any flack, you know, whereas people thought I was going to get clobbered when I went to these talks.

00:07:02.700 Well, some of your friends said it's a suicide note.

00:07:05.100 Suicide note, yeah.

00:07:06.100 And I really didn't know how it was going to come out, you know, because I've spent, I've never been so open about it.

00:07:12.300 You know, after 50 years, I decided, you know, at my age, what have I got to lose?

00:07:15.580 I'm just going to tell it like it is, you know, tell it as I see it, which I think is the way it is.

00:07:21.380 And so I was really pleased that the public reception was very good.

00:07:25.580 The flack I got was more from academics.

00:07:28.460 And my work is on cognitive development, so it touches on education.

00:07:32.840 And education is still the backwater of really anti-genetics still.

00:07:40.060 It's like psychology 30, 40 years ago, where there's just a knee-jerk reaction against genetics, somehow thinking that if genetics is important, then features are useless.

00:07:50.860 You know, I mean, where if they knew anything about this, they'd realize that's not at all true.

00:07:57.120 Clinicians used to think that in psychology, genetics is going to put them out of business, but it puts them in business in a way.

00:08:03.220 I mean, if you can say, well, this disorder is different from that disorder, and maybe people who have a strong genetic propensity for vulnerability might respond to treatments differently, maybe drug treatments or cognitive behavioral therapy.

00:08:17.660 So I think education will go that way eventually, but, boy, it's slow going.

00:08:23.420 And that's where I got the hostility more than any other area.

00:08:26.960 Not from teachers so much, though.

00:08:28.980 More from the academics.

00:08:30.980 Do you know?

00:08:31.340 So I know that's a very long-winded way of saying I don't really know.

00:08:37.100 But it's so interesting you bring up education, Robert, because everyone will drink now.

00:08:42.100 But as a former teacher.

00:08:43.760 Oh, right.

00:08:44.700 So I remember talking to one of my head of department or head of years, I can't remember what it was, or the deputy head.

00:08:51.840 And they went to me, Francis, why is it that this cohort hasn't done as well as your previous cohort?

00:08:57.440 Your previous cohort did really well, but this cohort not as well.

00:09:00.480 Why do you think that is?

00:09:01.760 And I went, well, they're just not as smart.

00:09:04.380 And he just looked at me absolutely horrified.

00:09:07.020 You can't say that.

00:09:08.320 But we all have different capabilities.

00:09:13.120 And that is genetics, isn't it, really?

00:09:15.100 Yeah.

00:09:15.620 Yeah.

00:09:15.840 I think when you talk to teachers, not to higher-level people or academics in education, you can't teach 30 kids in a classroom and not notice that some kids learn.

00:09:27.060 You've just got to stay out of their way, and they're going to learn lots of stuff.

00:09:30.180 Whereas other kids need a lot more help to just get up to minimum levels of literacy and numeracy.

00:09:36.460 And so I think we did a survey of teachers and how they feel about genetics.

00:09:42.580 And although they get no genetics in their training, they don't even know about genetics other than a few very rare single-gene mutations, which they'll never see.

00:09:51.300 They don't get anything about genetics, yet they accept the idea of genetic differences.

00:10:00.740 I mean, they don't know much about it, but in general, they're willing to say, as you were suggesting, that kids do differ.

00:10:07.060 And to assume that those differences are only due to the teachers, or if you can't blame the teachers, you blame the parents.

00:10:14.420 If you can't blame the parents, you blame the kids.

00:10:16.680 They're lazy or whatever.

00:10:18.360 But, you know, it's so important to recognize and respect the fact that people differ, and they differ genetically.

00:10:24.500 And that doesn't mean you give up.

00:10:27.000 To the contrary, you know, it depends on your views, but it could mean you say, well, we need to put, this is called the Finnish model in education,

00:10:34.480 put all the resources needed to get everybody up to some minimal levels of literacy and numeracy so that they can participate in society.

00:10:43.020 And, you know, Galton, who founded, Francis Galton, who's also a bad name right now because of eugenics,

00:10:48.780 but he started this field of genetics of human behavior and especially cognitive development.

00:10:54.160 And he said, ability will out, meaning you don't have to do much.

00:10:58.680 You kind of have to stay out of the way of, if you seem like musically gifted kids or mathematically gifted kids,

00:11:03.900 they don't need the best teachers in the world.

00:11:06.220 You know, they're just going to pick it up themselves.

00:11:08.720 And with the Internet now, you know, there's no stopping these kids.

00:11:12.780 So I think the teacher's perspective on this is really good because the problem with parents is they only see a couple kids.

00:11:20.000 One, in your case, three kids, is it?

00:11:21.460 I've just got the one.

00:11:22.440 All right.

00:11:22.780 Just born a few weeks ago.

00:11:24.380 All right.

00:11:24.600 I haven't seen much personality yet.

00:11:26.160 I see.

00:11:26.620 But I take your point.

00:11:29.980 I take your point.

00:11:30.640 As a parent, you only see your kids.

00:11:33.100 Yeah.

00:11:33.740 Yeah.

00:11:34.300 And, you know, kids are different from adults.

00:11:36.820 And, you know, so if you ask them about their kid, they are very active.

00:11:40.340 Well, actually, no, this kid's kind of a vegetable.

00:11:44.200 Whereas if you're a teacher and you see all these kids and you say, this kid is really hyperactive, you can believe it.

00:11:50.560 But the thing that I always found interesting looking with kids is that you'd get kids from the same family, yet they're completely different.

00:12:00.540 And genetically, you go, well, they can't have the same father.

00:12:03.080 They have the same mother.

00:12:04.100 Yet one kid is super bright.

00:12:05.780 And you don't know that.

00:12:06.740 No, that is true.

00:12:07.980 That is true.

00:12:09.060 But you know.

00:12:09.460 Same father anyway.

00:12:10.300 Yeah.

00:12:10.660 Same mother.

00:12:12.280 And you have.

00:12:12.920 So you see one kid who's super bright and then the other one who comes along and it isn't as bright.

00:12:17.700 And in many ways, we do those kids a disservice because then we compare them to the brother and the sister and they go, why aren't you like them?

00:12:24.500 Exactly right.

00:12:25.440 Well, there's a great saying that parents are environmentalists until they have more than one kid.

00:12:30.660 So I know you're not an environmentalist.

00:12:32.900 You don't think everything comes from what the parents do to the kids or that sort of thing.

00:12:37.840 But most parents, you know, you can.

00:12:40.460 The problem with environmental theory is you can explain anything.

00:12:43.580 So if you're.

00:12:44.580 Is it a daughter?

00:12:45.380 Son.

00:12:45.740 Son.

00:12:46.020 Son is shy, say, or something.

00:12:48.960 You can always explain it.

00:12:49.820 You can say, oh, you didn't take him out enough when he was young or whatever.

00:12:53.260 But then you have a second child and they're so different, as you're saying, Francis.

00:12:57.920 But genetics predicts that kids are different because they're 50% similar genetically.

00:13:03.440 But that means they're 50% different genetically.

00:13:05.680 And so when you have more than one child, you really see it because shyness is one of the most heritable characteristics in infants' sake.

00:13:14.040 And if given that, if you have one child who's very shy, chances are the other one will be less shy.

00:13:19.220 And, you know, you see these differences in personality and you say, I didn't do that.

00:13:24.080 And so that's why they say parents are environmentalists, generally, until they have more than one child.

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00:15:01.000 So let's get into the core of your work, because it's absolutely fascinating, so interesting in terms of understanding how we differ and why we differ and who we are.

00:15:11.000 You talked about how teachers may not be taught genetics.

00:15:14.960 What should they be taught?

00:15:16.380 What should we all be taught about genetics at a base level as a society so that we understand ourselves and our friends and partners and other people, strangers better?

00:15:25.360 And ourselves, yeah.

00:15:27.360 That inherited DNA differences are the major systematic force making us who we are as individuals.

00:15:35.760 And that has a lot of ramifications.

00:15:38.180 But one part of it that's really important is we have less control over our children, say, than we think we do.

00:15:44.640 Not just because of the genetics, but genetic research has shown the environment works very differently from the way we thought it worked.

00:15:53.580 Environmentalism was dominated by the idea of nurture, that the way kids develop is the way their parents treat them.

00:16:00.360 A lot of it was mother blaming.

00:16:02.020 If a kid becomes schizophrenic, you don't find out until they're 20 or so.

00:16:05.520 And then you're told it's because what you did, of what you did in the first few years of life, which is as wicked as it can be, right?

00:16:12.140 Because you did it, but you can't change, can't go back 17 years and do it differently.

00:16:17.620 And it was wrong.

00:16:18.960 You know, there's no evidence that that's what it's about.

00:16:21.400 The environmental influences are important.

00:16:23.400 They account for the other half of the differences between us.

00:16:26.440 In all traits, psychopathology, cognitive abilities, personality, all these traits are about 50%, we say, heritable.

00:16:33.180 That is, where the differences are caused by inherited DNA differences.

00:16:38.940 The other half is environmental.

00:16:40.620 But it's not due to these systematic family effects.

00:16:44.380 Whatever it is, it's making two kids in the same family as different from each other as kids in different families.

00:16:51.300 Even though, as you said, they have the same parents.

00:16:53.880 That's probably what it's about.

00:16:55.220 You know, the parents, they might be treating the kids differently, but it's more likely it's idiosyncratic, you know, stochastic sorts of factors.

00:17:05.860 Chance, basically.

00:17:07.720 So that's a double whammy for parents.

00:17:09.800 Because first, you don't have as much influence as you think you do because genetics is the major systematic force.

00:17:15.600 And the environmental side, you don't have the levers to pull either because it's mostly chance.

00:17:20.480 So this is a great talk for a new parent, isn't it?

00:17:23.840 There's nothing you can do.

00:17:26.020 I was going to make that joke, but it seemed insensitive.

00:17:29.640 No, but that is the point.

00:17:31.560 So does that mean, as a parent, you just give up and say, I can't do anything?

00:17:34.760 Right.

00:17:35.000 But to the contrary, you know, it just means if you, if I'm sure you're not, you don't think this, but there's a lot of parents, especially, you know, yuppie parents who, you know, are waiting until they're in their 30s or whatever.

00:17:46.200 And then they have their precious kid.

00:17:47.680 And they're so concerned about making one false move that's going to screw the kid up for life.

00:17:53.700 And the other thing I see is that a lot of people still, they know it's wrong, but deep down, they still think the kid's a blob of clay, that they're going to mold to be what they want it to be.

00:18:05.520 And that doesn't work because you don't do that.

00:18:09.560 Far better is to say, like with your spouse or your friends, you don't do nice things for them because you want to make them into something you want them to be.

00:18:18.600 You do it because you like them.

00:18:20.200 And I think it's really important.

00:18:21.760 It sounds cheesy, but it's important for parents to lighten up and to say, you don't have as much control as you think.

00:18:28.400 But what that means is you do things for the kid because you want to make them happy.

00:18:34.040 You want life to be nice for them.

00:18:35.680 You're not trying to make them into what you want them to be.

00:18:39.660 And, you know, imagine if you did that to your spouse.

00:18:41.620 You're saying, well, this person's not too bad and I can shape her up to be the way I want her to be.

00:18:46.960 You know, I mean, that's a disaster, right?

00:18:48.700 You do nice things for people you love because you love them and you want life to be nice for them.

00:18:53.300 So that doesn't mean, you know, you let your kid do whatever they want to do. 0.95

00:18:56.360 You say, no, if we go to a friend's house and you act like an ass, you know, that's not going to be nice. 0.98

00:19:01.160 I mean, it's going to make all of us kind of unpleasant. 0.99

00:19:03.060 And why do that, you know?

00:19:04.480 You know, so I think the relationship is probably more important.

00:19:09.160 It's the longest relationship we have in life with our children.

00:19:11.800 And the idea that you're going to mold your kid is really counterproductive to that relationship in a way.

00:19:18.740 Far better to give the kid opportunities to find out what they like to do and then help them do what they like to do.

00:19:25.160 Because I think increasingly, I don't think it's aptitudes as much as appetites.

00:19:29.840 Do you know?

00:19:30.180 I mean, they go together, sort of.

00:19:32.380 But what determines what people do in life is more a matter of, I don't know, I just do it because I like it, sort of.

00:19:39.120 And that what you like to do, you do it more and you do it better and you get better at it.

00:19:44.000 The aptitude almost follows from the appetite.

00:19:46.800 I don't know about you guys, but when I ask friends, what is it?

00:19:48.960 And why are you doing what you're doing?

00:19:51.780 When you get done, people can tell you a story about it, but very often it's chance sort of stuff and sort of like, I don't know, I just kind of like doing it.

00:20:01.540 Like, I can't imagine liking to do comedy.

00:20:03.940 I mean, that would be my worst nightmare, having to go up on a stage and try and tell a joke.

00:20:10.160 I can never tell a joke.

00:20:11.480 I can never remember a joke.

00:20:12.480 I lose the punchline.

00:20:13.420 I'm just not really, I guess, interested.

00:20:17.000 You know, I love comedy, right?

00:20:18.360 But, I mean, I'm just not interested in producing comedy.

00:20:21.640 Like, I'm not interested in producing high-level music as well, but I love music.

00:20:25.700 I listen to music all the time.

00:20:27.200 It's that sort of thing.

00:20:29.380 It's so interesting what we're talking about.

00:20:31.620 And this is a question that I really wanted to ask you because the more I read about your work, the more I researched it, the more I thought, is free will an illusion?

00:20:41.700 Are we just completely determined by our genetics?

00:20:45.800 I like to think I've got free will, but you just go, a lot of the stuff I've done, is that just my genes?

00:20:53.100 Well, listen, the free will issue is a very big issue philosophically.

00:20:59.700 But say just, and, you know, like Sam Harris and people are saying no such thing as free will.

00:21:04.480 It's all determined.

00:21:06.080 But this is a rabbit hole in a way.

00:21:09.120 I mean, there's a lot of interesting stuff there.

00:21:11.360 But from a simple genetic point of view, I would say it's almost the opposite.

00:21:17.040 Like, now that we have, with the DNA revolution, we have these polygenic scores.

00:21:21.920 So I can predict genetic risk from birth.

00:21:24.700 So in my book, I present the world's first profile of these genetic risk scores for things like obesity, for example, or schizophrenia.

00:21:33.120 And my highest risk score was for obesity.

00:21:38.180 And so people might be surprised to learn that obesity is nothing more than high body weight.

00:21:45.880 It isn't like a disease or a disorder.

00:21:48.340 It's a perfectly continuous distribution.

00:21:51.880 So by having a high, well, first people might be surprised to learn how heritable individual differences in weight are.

00:21:59.900 When we've done surveys, people think height, highly heritable.

00:22:03.340 Weight, nah.

00:22:04.280 It's just free will.

00:22:06.140 People who have problems with their weight, you know, they just need to get a grip, pull up their socks, you know.

00:22:12.800 But it turns out it's about 60% heritable, meaning the differences between people and their body weight are 60% of the differences are due to inherited DNA differences.

00:22:22.460 So where this comes back to your question is, I have this high, like I'm at the 94th percentile of this genetic risk, but I'm at the only 70th percentile of actual body weight.

00:22:35.460 You know, that still gives me a BMI near on the cusp of obesity, really.

00:22:41.900 But you're doing quite well given your genetic inheritance.

00:22:44.440 Well, that's it.

00:22:45.020 And instead of me giving up and saying, I'm destined to be a genetic fatty, I can't do anything about it, I find for that and for many other genetic risks, like heart disease or whatever, it actually motivates you to do better.

00:23:00.640 So I know that my weight isn't a matter of, you know, every year.

00:23:05.520 It's invidious.

00:23:06.740 You know, I put a few pounds on every year, but the problem is they don't go away.

00:23:11.060 And so by recognizing I'm in this kind of battle of the bulge, it's a lifelong battle.

00:23:18.060 And so what I do is I arrange my environment.

00:23:19.860 I just can't have junk food in the house, you know, with the best of intentions, you know, come home late one night and those crisps start talking to you, you know, just one crisp, you know, and then the whole bag's gone.

00:23:30.600 And, you know, you could say, I could have the self-control, but, you know, life, you kind of live it on the fly and things happen and sometimes you lose it.

00:23:43.000 And other people wouldn't have that sort of, those crisps, they could leave on the shelf, you know, I just can't have them in the house.

00:23:49.940 So I've learned that I can't have biscuits in the house and stuff like that.

00:23:53.680 And I still have to struggle with it, but it helps me to know I've got this genetic propensity for putting on weight.

00:24:02.260 So I think weight is a good example of what you're talking about.

00:24:05.660 Just because it's heritable doesn't mean there's nothing you can do about it.

00:24:09.180 And no trait is 100% heritable.

00:24:14.060 Body weight is, you know, at the higher level of 60%.

00:24:18.420 Most traits are about 50% heritable.

00:24:21.240 Personality about 40%.

00:24:22.740 So there's still a lot of non-genetic influence.

00:24:25.560 But as I said, those influences are largely chance and idiosyncratic.

00:24:31.400 But you can take advantage of those probably and say, you know, I'm going to work hard to keep my weight down.

00:24:37.760 I could definitely work harder at it.

00:24:40.780 But, you know, I'm only willing to give that so much energy in my life.

00:24:43.420 Plus, I love food, you know.

00:24:45.620 And so.

00:24:47.580 That was a strong yes there for you, mate.

00:24:48.640 Yeah, that is, yeah.

00:24:49.860 So we've been talking about the inheritability of obesity.

00:24:53.700 And as a man who struggles with his weight, thank you for telling me it's not my fault.

00:24:59.040 I really appreciate that.

00:25:00.060 We're going to have to up the fat shaming, mate.

00:25:02.480 But what about addiction?

00:25:03.660 Well, one thing, one common, one rule sort of is after 50 years of research is everything's heritable.

00:25:12.700 But nothing's 100% heritable.

00:25:15.460 So the work on addiction suggests it's moderately heritable.

00:25:20.560 You know, in general, about 40% heritable.

00:25:23.720 And people are trying to get genetic DNA predictors.

00:25:27.660 We call them polygenic scores because these aren't, these genetic influences aren't due to a handful.

00:25:33.740 They're not due to one gene or a handful of genes.

00:25:36.200 They're due to thousands of genes with very tiny effects.

00:25:41.420 And you can put them together in what we call a poly, multiple genic score, to predict behavior like alcoholism.

00:25:49.500 And so they're not as strong as the predictors we have for, say, cognitive ability or school performance.

00:25:58.520 But they're getting better all the time.

00:26:00.720 And they're getting better by having bigger and bigger studies.

00:26:03.620 The first study that was done was called the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium Study in 2007.

00:26:08.600 And they had 2,000 cases of seven disorders, you know, like the big ones, like hypercholesterolemia and, you know, six other disorders with 2,000 patients.

00:26:20.960 And at the time, that was just thought, you know, mammoth samples.

00:26:25.500 Well, now that wouldn't get published.

00:26:27.900 It's gone to 20,000, 200,000.

00:26:30.540 And in my area, cognitive, the latest study published last month is based on 3 million people.

00:26:37.100 Wow.

00:26:37.540 And the reason for that is if the effects are so small that you need huge samples to detect the effect.

00:26:46.040 I don't know if people will understand that.

00:26:48.040 No, no, they will.

00:26:49.220 And if you had a single gene disorder, you know, you only need one family to find it.

00:26:55.340 So that's been what we've been up to in the last 10 years, getting bigger and bigger samples.

00:27:01.320 We're collaborations among sometimes hundreds of studies, many hundreds of investigators.

00:27:08.820 You know, we're page after page of authors on these papers.

00:27:12.440 But it's kind of cool in a way that people realize their sample, which they've struggled to collect for decades, is worthless because it doesn't have the power to detect these effects.

00:27:23.100 So all they can do is throw their lot in with everybody else.

00:27:27.520 But it makes for much better science, really.

00:27:29.520 Yeah.

00:27:29.800 So, Robert, we've talked about some of the more physical things like obesity and perhaps addiction, people would argue, has a strong physical component.

00:27:37.320 I want to go to psychology in a second.

00:27:40.160 But first of all, what about something as strongly related to identity as, say, sexuality, the narrative in society, which is frankly one that I'm sort of invested in, but one I go with, is that, you know, if you're gay or straight or bi or whatever it is, that's 100% genetic. 0.55

00:27:59.160 There is no environmental influence.

00:28:00.880 How true is that?

00:28:01.600 Well, when this research, the first twin studies and then adoption studies were done on sexuality 30 years ago or so, that wasn't the prevailing view.

00:28:11.340 I mean, it was more that it was a matter of lifestyle choices and how your mother treated you in the first few years of life.

00:28:19.580 So the research coming out showing that there's genetic influence on it, not real high genetic influence, moderate genetic influence, that created quite a storm.

00:28:29.840 And then when someone said they found a gene on the X chromosome that's related to that, which turns out not to be true, that really upped the ante a bit.

00:28:38.460 So people were not, you know, they were quite hostile to the idea, but the gay community liked it because, you know, it wasn't just a lifestyle choice and they were making life difficult for their parents and other people or whatever.

00:28:52.820 So it's interesting to hear you say that you think if we did a survey now, most people would think that it's very highly heritable.

00:28:59.080 I have no doubt that most people would answer that way.

00:29:02.220 Yeah.

00:29:02.700 I worked at an adolescent treatment center where we had several boys who were gay and they were almost in the treatment center because they were gay and they created such problems in their life. 1.00

00:29:12.760 This is back in the 70s.

00:29:14.060 But their stories were, they just knew from early on, you know.

00:29:19.900 And so I tend to agree with you, but it's a difficult thing to study because even now I think people aren't totally open about their sexuality, I think.

00:29:31.500 But anyway, the data that exists not surprisingly suggests there's some genetic influence, but it's not at all 100% heritable.

00:29:39.080 I mean, it's a long way from that, but there might be chance factors involved as well.

00:29:44.980 And, you know, one way to get at this is with identical twins because that's what the twin study is about, comparing identical, called monozygotic twins.

00:29:53.780 It's the same fertilized egg, so same sperm and egg combined to create this embryo, and it splits in the first few days of life.

00:30:01.700 So these are genetically identical individuals.

00:30:04.020 If you sequence them, they have the same DNA, both individuals.

00:30:07.460 So to what extent are they different?

00:30:10.940 And for homosexuality, can we call it homosexuality? 0.92

00:30:15.740 Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

00:30:17.820 It's a worry about, I can't keep up with terms.

00:30:21.980 But for identical twins, they're only, I think, about 60% concordant for homosexuality. 0.83

00:30:29.360 What does that mean, Robert, concordant?

00:30:30.800 They're the same.

00:30:31.860 So if you find one identical twin male who's gay, what are the chances that the other identical twin are gay?

00:30:38.200 And it's certainly not 100%.

00:30:39.980 Wow.

00:30:40.540 But then people say, you know, well, but maybe if you grow up with someone who's a, you know, people confuse you all the time if you're an identical twin.

00:30:49.580 The easiest way to tell if a twin is identical or not is one question.

00:30:52.700 When you were growing up, did people have trouble telling you apart?

00:30:55.880 Sure.

00:30:56.240 Because that aggregates a lot of characteristics, height, weight, hair color, which is all identical for identical twins.

00:31:02.120 So it may be that by having this identical person around, maybe you forge a separate identity or something like that.

00:31:10.860 But I don't know.

00:31:11.500 I mean, there aren't any traits, complex traits, that are 100% heritable.

00:31:15.040 So it doesn't surprise me that identical twins differ.

00:31:18.800 I mean, they're not always the same for sexual preference.

00:31:21.880 Wow.

00:31:22.680 That's really interesting.

00:31:24.280 And so moving on to psychology now, which is obviously an area you focused on heavily in your work.

00:31:29.960 How heritable are things like political beliefs, for example, cultural positions, you know, things of that nature?

00:31:38.560 Views, world views, if we might describe it that way.

00:31:41.180 Well, people are surprised if everything's heritable.

00:31:43.520 And people were surprised, though, to find out that attitudes, you know, are also heritable.

00:31:49.340 Now, unlike a lot of other traits in psychology, attitudes, especially political attitudes and religiosity, show some influence of the nurture of the family in which you're brought up.

00:32:02.780 But they're also substantially heritable.

00:32:06.540 And that still bothers people, I think.

00:32:10.780 But, you know, there's so many studies now showing that it's incontrovertible.

00:32:15.280 But it's common sense, isn't it, Robert?

00:32:17.260 Like, we hear you all our lives.

00:32:19.100 When we're talking, they'll say, oh, you just remind me just of your grandfather when you do that, or of your mum when you say it that, when you say that thing.

00:32:27.480 You're just like your dad when you do this.

00:32:29.740 Yeah.

00:32:30.060 It's common sense, isn't it, really?

00:32:31.800 Yeah.

00:32:32.780 I mean, you could say that's environmental, though, couldn't you?

00:32:34.740 You could, yeah.

00:32:36.040 Yeah.

00:32:36.320 But what's impressive with these, identical twins are rarely reared apart.

00:32:41.440 But there's several hundred pairs that have been found that have been reared apart.

00:32:44.560 There's a famous Minnesota study that brought identical twins who had been reared apart until adulthood.

00:32:51.460 They bring them together for the first time and keep them together for a week and test them on something like 50,000 bits of information.

00:32:58.320 And it's amazing when you see them first come together.

00:33:03.340 I mean, it's like mind-boggling.

00:33:05.720 Or there's a film that won one of those film awards.

00:33:11.420 It's a documentary film called Three Identical Strangers.

00:33:13.540 So that's a more recent example of just this identical triplet.

00:33:18.200 Sometimes, so identical twins happen when the same fertilized egg splits in the first few days of life.

00:33:23.700 Sometimes one of those will split again and you get identical triplets.

00:33:27.700 It's very rare, one in 10,000 of twins.

00:33:30.900 So it's very rare.

00:33:31.600 But there was a case, there was an adoption agency in New York that in the 50s and going into the 60s thought it was difficult to adopt kids.

00:33:42.740 Probably wrong.

00:33:44.140 But then it was particularly difficult to adopt twins.

00:33:47.480 So they said, well, we'll adopt the kids separately.

00:33:51.520 But what's wicked was they didn't tell the adoptive parents.

00:33:54.880 And it was really a rogue psychiatrist who thought this would be the perfect nature-nurture experiment.

00:34:02.060 And because he actually reared them, adopted them into very different homes.

00:34:06.500 Like in the triplets, one went into a lower-class home, immigrant parents. 1.00

00:34:10.100 The other one in a middle-class home, high school teacher.

00:34:12.260 And the third went into a home of a lawyer and a surgeon, I think, in Long Island, one of the wealthiest areas.

00:34:20.220 So their environments differed as much as could be.

00:34:22.720 But as you see in the film, when these guys get together, you know, it's like they found themselves, really.

00:34:29.880 I mean, within an hour or so, they're wrestling on the floor, these 20-year-old males.

00:34:34.580 You know, they're just, they were all into wrestling.

00:34:39.980 Wrestling, you know.

00:34:41.100 But they had that stocky sort of build and they didn't mind.

00:34:45.960 I find it abhorrent, you know, to be cuddling with these.

00:34:49.780 It's not cuddling, I suppose, with these sweaty men and stuff.

00:34:52.720 But they just, John Irving, the author, was also very much into wrestling.

00:34:57.020 And he talks about that same sort of thing.

00:34:59.840 That it's this appetite issue again.

00:35:01.820 That, you know, you kind of go with what feels right for you.

00:35:05.220 But they all went to wrestling.

00:35:06.960 There's so many examples like that, though.

00:35:08.800 They all, when they got together, they realized none of them.

00:35:11.440 They were all very smart.

00:35:12.680 They read a lot.

00:35:13.480 They just didn't like university.

00:35:15.280 So they all dropped out of university, decided they're kind of entrepreneurial.

00:35:19.100 They started a nightclub called Triplets in Manhattan.

00:35:21.980 Wow.

00:35:22.680 And, you know, because they love that sort of thing. 0.87

00:35:24.500 Staying up all night and having a lot of, you know, they lived together in a bachelor pad that was real wild with sex, drugs, and rock and roll.

00:35:31.180 While it lasted.

00:35:33.700 And so it's a great, I really recommend that film.

00:35:37.720 The first half of the film, which is what I've just been telling you about.

00:35:41.080 The second half of the film and a new book that's just come out explores why were these guys separated?

00:35:47.420 And, you know, talks about this very wicked story.

00:35:50.200 That was before the days of ethics permission for things.

00:35:53.320 And so that's a very dark story.

00:35:58.840 And, Robert, for these twins, are the outcomes roughly the same, even though they got placed in a lower class home, middle class home, upper class?

00:36:06.780 Did they all end up in the same place?

00:36:08.460 Or the fact that one kid ended up getting the best possible education mean that and connections mean that they did slightly better?

00:36:16.040 Yeah.

00:36:16.780 Well, that one kid in that very wealthy family had all the opportunities you're suggesting, but didn't really do much better at school.

00:36:22.660 Because it just didn't turn him on.

00:36:25.340 I mean, you know, he didn't want to go an academic route.

00:36:29.100 So they ended up being amazingly similar in personality, in education and cognitive abilities, which is my interest in particular, but also psychopathology.

00:36:40.800 One committed suicide while this film was being made, shortly, I guess, before the film was made.

00:36:47.880 And, you know, you'd say, whoa, then the other two didn't.

00:36:51.940 But then it turns out all three of them lived in different families, not knowing the existence of the others.

00:36:58.620 All three of them had therapy for depression in adolescence, which in the 50s was extremely rare.

00:37:05.040 So that's an example of how one committed suicide, but they were all depressive.

00:37:12.180 And what we know about suicide is it's often a spontaneous act in a way, you know, like there's a BBC documentary on it that I think is very good about the epidemic of male depression.

00:37:25.880 And there's a lot of contagion there.

00:37:28.000 And I mean, it seems weird that someone could take their life on a whim in a way.

00:37:31.780 But lots of stories about a guy who decides he's going to jump off this bridge.

00:37:35.840 But if someone just smiles at him, he just says, OK, I won't.

00:37:39.480 You know, so the fact that one committed suicide and the others didn't doesn't surprise me too much.

00:37:45.400 What does surprise me is the fact that despite these very different backgrounds, all three were treated for depression in adolescence.

00:37:53.160 Wow. That's so interesting, isn't it?

00:37:56.900 It's just an anecdote, though, isn't it?

00:37:58.520 It's just one case.

00:37:59.460 But it is backed up by other systematic studies of identical twins reared apart, which are very dramatic.

00:38:06.940 But because their situations, their circumstances are so unusual to have identical twins adopted apart,

00:38:15.940 that the other methods are actually more valuable in terms of basic science, like comparing identical and non-identical twins.

00:38:24.500 And although they're all reared together in a home, the fact is they're all born in the same womb.

00:38:29.480 They're all the same age.

00:38:30.720 They're reared in the same home.

00:38:33.000 And there's a big difference, though.

00:38:34.880 One group is twice as similar genetically as the other group.

00:38:37.840 Identical twins are 100% similar.

00:38:40.160 And non-identical twins, like any brother and sister, are 50% similar.

00:38:44.780 So if genetics is important, you'd have to predict that the identical twins are more similar than the non-identical twins.

00:38:50.440 And then the adoption method is neat because it's completely different.

00:38:53.400 It's taking genetically related people reared apart or reared together.

00:38:57.860 So, for example, parents and offspring are 50% similar genetically, but the children grow up in the home of those parents.

00:39:05.820 So that's why, for a century, psychology has interpreted resemblance in families as nurture.

00:39:12.740 You know, it's not crazy.

00:39:14.000 And especially at a time when no one was thinking about genetics, no one said, well, they are 50% similar genetically.

00:39:20.100 Could it be genetic?

00:39:21.100 They never thought about that.

00:39:22.580 But the adoption method, which the first study was done in 49, and I did a very large study in the 70s in Colorado.

00:39:30.840 You take, in those days, this was like in the early, well, you know, in the United States, I won't go into the whole story,

00:39:41.800 but with the swinging 60s, there was a lot of illegitimate births because birth control wasn't really available then, and abortion wasn't really an option either.

00:39:50.400 So there were a lot of kids being put up for adoption.

00:39:52.780 And so we studied, I studied the birth mothers who, at that time, went away from their home because it was such a negative thing to have a baby out of wedlock.

00:40:01.880 They'd go into these homes for unwed mothers for the last trimester when they were showing. 1.00

00:40:06.360 And we tested them in these homes and then studied the kids and their adoptive parents as the kids grew up into their teenage years.

00:40:18.140 So that you've taken parents who share genes and environment with their kids, and we know they're similar for everything.

00:40:26.940 But you then almost experimentally divide the genetics and the environment.

00:40:32.240 You've got nature parents, the biological parents, and their adopted away kids who in those days, you know, you have to say you'll never see the kid again.

00:40:40.420 You know, it's not like today where birth parents are involved in the raising of their child.

00:40:46.020 And then you've got the nurture parents, the adoptive parents who adopt these kids.

00:40:50.920 And just to give you one concrete example, we were talking about weight.

00:40:54.580 You know, the correlation between parents and offspring for weight is 0.4.

00:40:58.820 So it's a correlation is a statistic that goes from 0 to 1.

00:41:02.640 So 0.4 is a moderate correlation.

00:41:05.480 Now, parents and offspring are only 50% similar genetically.

00:41:07.760 So from a genetic point of view, you don't expect it to be much higher than that.

00:41:11.100 So anyway, that's 0.4.

00:41:12.260 Is it nature or nurture?

00:41:13.600 Well, it's always been assumed to be nurture.

00:41:15.900 Not crazy.

00:41:17.380 I mean, parents give the kids their diet and give them role models for lifestyles of exercise and all of that.

00:41:23.880 So what about birth parents and their adopted away kids?

00:41:28.060 They correlate exactly the same, 0.4.

00:41:31.040 And then you say, but then does that mean it's all nature?

00:41:33.660 And the answer is yes.

00:41:34.540 It's the correlation between these adoptive parents who raised the kids from the first few months of life and their adopted kid for weight is zero.

00:41:45.460 There's no correlation.

00:41:48.200 Wow.

00:41:48.580 So that's a kind of neat way of showing that what runs in families is DNA.

00:41:54.680 And TLC is important, but it doesn't make a difference.

00:41:59.180 On that particular issue.

00:42:00.500 On that issue.

00:42:01.300 But most of the other issues, too.

00:42:03.000 But what about something like one of the things we've explored on this show, for example, we've talked to people like Warren Farrell, who's the author of The Boy Crisis.

00:42:10.620 And one of the things he talks about is the impact of fatherlessness on boys in particular, but also on girls.

00:42:16.780 What happens, statistically speaking, and someone who grows up without a father is far more likely to end up in prison, far more likely to misbehave in school.

00:42:26.940 And a whole host of other negative outcomes.

00:42:30.120 So how would you explain that, then?

00:42:32.660 Well, if you...

00:42:35.940 I'm trying to think of the shorter version of this, but you can't assume that environmental factors are all environment.

00:42:43.900 Now, the fatherless home is a tougher issue, a tougher example for me to work with. 0.95

00:42:50.100 But let me start with another example.

00:42:52.640 One of the items that, in terms of cognitive development, one of the items that is best predictive of kids' cognitive development is number of books in the home.

00:43:01.740 And that's always been assumed to be environmental.

00:43:07.060 I mean, books don't have DNA.

00:43:08.700 So if the number of books in the home correlates with how well kids do at school, doesn't that have to be environmental?

00:43:14.960 And it's not.

00:43:15.840 It's mostly genetic.

00:43:17.720 And the reason for that is books don't get on the shelves by themselves.

00:43:21.400 Who are the parents who have more books?

00:43:23.780 People with genes which cause them to have books in the house pass those genes on to their kids.

00:43:28.100 Right.

00:43:28.720 Now, it's a lot harder to think about that.

00:43:30.600 So most of the environmental measures we use in psychology, life events, you know, is used in, I think, the last count was 5,000 studies.

00:43:40.120 It's used as an environmental measure.

00:43:42.400 It shows as much genetic information.

00:43:44.520 It's not as heritable as behavioral traits.

00:43:46.760 But on average, the environmental measures we use in psychology are about 25% heritable.

00:43:52.320 And life events, you know, the big items are things like financial disruption,

00:43:58.100 getting in conflicts with people, losing your job.

00:44:03.200 Well, that's not the environment out there independent of us.

00:44:06.600 We have something to do with that environment.

00:44:08.360 And so I think it's very important to recognize that just because we give something the name, a label of environment, doesn't make it environmental.

00:44:16.500 In fact, you're safe for saying there's probably genetic influence.

00:44:19.460 So, Robert, just so that we don't lose the audience and also don't lose me, because you're very clever and I'm not, I'm struggling to keep up.

00:44:26.320 Are you sort of saying that the fatherlessness is a genetic issue?

00:44:30.700 See, that's what I was going to say.

00:44:31.880 It's a harder one to go to.

00:44:34.520 But you have to consider the possibility that there's genetic influence on that.

00:44:39.660 In other words, and this is going to sound very sort of blamey and whatever.

00:44:43.680 I'm just trying to get to the truth.

00:44:44.960 And we're not trying to judge anyone or whatever.

00:44:46.760 People have their own individual circumstances.

00:44:48.680 But correct me when I say, so what you're saying is a person who might end up being a single parent passes certain genes onto their child that a person who will less likely end up as a single parent passes onto their child.

00:45:04.120 And therefore, the life outcomes are different.

00:45:05.840 Is that what you're saying?

00:45:07.240 Yeah, basically.

00:45:08.540 Okay.

00:45:09.020 But, I mean, you have to consider that possibility.

00:45:11.280 It's a hard thing to study.

00:45:12.980 But a thing that has been studied is divorce, which is part of this.

00:45:16.000 Sure.

00:45:16.220 Now, fatherless homes are a bigger issue than divorce.

00:45:20.860 Yes.

00:45:21.200 But if you take divorce, divorce is related to lots of problems in kids.

00:45:26.500 Right?

00:45:26.700 Yes.

00:45:27.680 And people say, well, clearly that's an environmental factor.

00:45:32.720 Right?

00:45:33.320 I mean, most people assume, they don't even think about the possibility there could be genetic influence.

00:45:38.320 Several studies now show, like everything, there's heritable influence on divorce.

00:45:42.960 Wow.

00:45:43.400 And when you ask, well, where does that come from?

00:45:46.400 It's a better example because it may be positive.

00:45:49.620 The sort of people like me, I can talk about this because I've been married three times.

00:45:54.300 So, people who get divorced, this is on average, they tend to be kind of risk-taking, joie de vivre, things that probably make them attractive initially, but probably make them less safe bets for long-term relationships.

00:46:12.860 Right.

00:46:13.140 Because the joie de vivre kind of goes away after a few years, you know?

00:46:17.360 So, oops.

00:46:20.720 There's a confessional there.

00:46:22.000 Except for my current, you know, current life is perfect.

00:46:25.200 I see.

00:46:25.800 So, well, that actually makes sense.

00:46:27.420 Sorry, Francis.

00:46:27.960 I just want to finish this line of inquiry, I suppose.

00:46:32.540 So, well, I suppose that makes perfect sense because whether you get divorced or not is a product of your personality.

00:46:37.420 And if your personality is a product of your genes.

00:46:38.940 See, that's the thing, though.

00:46:39.580 They think that divorce happens to you. 0.94

00:46:41.400 Right.

00:46:41.760 But, I mean, if you've been divorced, divorce doesn't happen to you.

00:46:44.440 I mean, that's your life.

00:46:45.920 That's your relationship, you know?

00:46:47.800 You manifest it in the world.

00:46:49.800 You know what?

00:46:50.940 This is the thing that is really great about having you on the show.

00:46:53.760 It's like, I haven't thought about these things nearly carefully enough.

00:46:56.660 And therefore, I'm going with a lot of, like, narratives that I haven't actually examined.

00:47:00.860 So, it's fascinating to have the data.

00:47:02.180 It would be really good to talk about it as a new parent.

00:47:03.900 And I think I was going to write a follow-up book to Blueprint because the four pages in the book about parenting have gotten more attention than anything else.

00:47:14.740 And I don't know if you've looked around at parenting books.

00:47:16.780 But, you know, there are literally thousands of parenting books.

00:47:21.620 Hardly any of them even mention genetics.

00:47:24.300 Whereas, I think the most important thing for parents to know is that they have less control than they think they do because genetics is a very, you know, it's the most important systematic source of differences.

00:47:35.920 The environment's important.

00:47:37.440 But the environment that makes a difference isn't really systematic.

00:47:41.100 That means you as a parent, you know?

00:47:43.520 So, I think it's really important for parents to understand that message.

00:47:47.780 So, it'd be kind of fun to think about whether this has an impact on, you know, you.

00:47:54.740 And have you thought about these issues at all?

00:47:57.200 No, because the way I think about it, I suppose, is I've always seen it as my job as a parent.

00:48:03.960 And maybe, look, I'm three weeks into it, so what the hell do I know?

00:48:06.840 But the way I see it is about observing what my child's aptitudes and appetites are and facilitating them in that journey.

00:48:16.880 So, I don't want my child to be a lawyer or a basketball player.

00:48:21.920 Well, I do want them to be a basketball player, but like a thing that I've decided for them.

00:48:27.480 But what I hope to be able to do is to pay attention enough that I can see this and give them opportunity enough that they can find what they're good at and what they're interested in and then facilitate that journey as best I can as a parent.

00:48:40.200 And that's the way I've always looked at it.

00:48:41.800 Well, and that was the message I had in those four pages in Blueprint.

00:48:45.620 But a lot of parents don't want to hear.

00:48:48.140 They don't have control.

00:48:49.140 But 1% of the population gets diagnosed as schizophrenic.

00:48:54.700 And you don't, as a parent, you don't find out about that until late adolescence, early adulthood.

00:49:00.220 So, things are going along well.

00:49:01.980 And then suddenly, you know, this train hits you.

00:49:05.200 And if you think you're totally responsible for everything that happens to your kid, that is a tough task, tough thing to swallow.

00:49:17.420 And so, I do get a lot of letters from people who say, you know, everything seems to be going well.

00:49:25.020 But then in adolescence, the kids hit drugs and other peers and stuff.

00:49:29.880 And, you know, they're blaming themselves for this.

00:49:32.540 But, you know, that's one of those sort of idiosyncratic things that you just don't have control about.

00:49:38.440 You hope if you make things good enough and stable enough for your kid.

00:49:43.000 I think in some ways, you've got to write off adolescence.

00:49:45.420 I worked at an adolescent treatment center for three years.

00:49:48.220 And, you know, kids, parents doing well before.

00:49:51.300 And then things just fall apart.

00:49:53.400 In this case, they were in the judicial system, these kids, and put into these homes.

00:49:57.960 But then afterwards, most of the time, they stabilize.

00:50:01.080 In some ways, I think, you know, if we could put kids away on some South Sea island and have them come back.

00:50:06.660 You know, so there's hope for parents.

00:50:08.060 There's a lot of parents who sign up for that with teenage kids.

00:50:11.340 Well, in England, they do, don't they?

00:50:12.460 They send them to boarding schools. 0.66

00:50:14.520 That is how we deal with it, indeed.

00:50:17.000 Hey, Francis, do you like books?

00:50:19.460 I tried one once.

00:50:20.660 It wasn't for me, mate.

00:50:21.760 Not enough pictures of fit brown birds.

00:50:24.540 Never working with you again.

00:50:25.800 But if you like fantasy, check out the Ripples in Reality series by J.S. Powell.

00:50:31.600 They're absolutely brilliant, and they have a five gold star rating on Amazon.

00:50:35.900 I've heard of them.

00:50:36.960 They're beautifully written and completely original.

00:50:40.300 If you want a book that allows you to delve into different worlds and helps you escape the insanity of real life,

00:50:47.500 then Ripples in Reality is for you.

00:50:50.180 See?

00:50:50.960 I know the word delve, so I do read books.

00:50:53.860 Amazing.

00:50:54.900 Just imagine books written in the style of Game of Thrones, Lord of the Rings, Forgotten Realms,

00:50:59.480 with an added pinch of Stargate.

00:51:01.160 It's catnip for people like me.

00:51:03.040 Virgins.

00:51:05.460 She started a publishing company named Poppyfield Publishing,

00:51:09.200 and her novels are a massive hit with fans who want to read books that are a great read and are not woke.

00:51:14.620 Book one is Shadow Step.

00:51:16.420 And book two, Gather Shadows.

00:51:19.060 She's currently writing book number three, I Can't Wait.

00:51:22.320 I don't read books because I can talk to girls. 0.99

00:51:25.180 Your mum doesn't count, mate.

00:51:26.580 And by the way, J.S. Powell is a big supporter of Chickenometry.

00:51:29.740 She is a moderator on our channel, and we really appreciate all her help.

00:51:33.920 You can find her books online at Amazon, Lulu.com, and other bookseller websites.

00:51:38.160 If you enjoy the books, please leave a review.

00:51:40.520 The links are in the description.

00:51:47.200 But Robert, we've been talking about things like mental illness and obesity,

00:51:51.860 and, you know, these are very important topics, but they have a slight negative edge.

00:51:56.200 So let's look at something more positive, which is talents.

00:51:59.660 Things like musicality, a particular gift in sport or art.

00:52:04.700 Are those heritable?

00:52:06.560 Everything's heritable, but it's harder to study the extremes.

00:52:10.600 So, you know, if you're talking about super athletes, there's just a few of them in the world.

00:52:15.260 But there's a huge interest in that in terms of athletics with the DNA revolution.

00:52:20.140 Because if you can predict, it's like with racehorses.

00:52:23.200 They're really keen on the genetics.

00:52:25.200 Because if you can predict the tiniest little edge,

00:52:29.100 that could be the difference between a winner and a loser.

00:52:31.480 So there's a lot of interest in making those predictions genetically.

00:52:36.680 But the data, as they exist, suggests that the extremes of any of these distributions,

00:52:43.740 like in cognitive ability or sports to the extent it's been studied,

00:52:48.520 there's a little bit on musicality now.

00:52:50.980 But the extremes are not ideologically different from the rest of the distribution.

00:52:56.960 So, do you know what I mean?

00:53:00.280 No.

00:53:00.720 People used to think, well, geniuses, you know, really gifted people, tops athletics.

00:53:07.880 They're just a different species. 0.55

00:53:09.800 You know, there's some weird, some unusual gene that they have or something like that.

00:53:15.380 It's not the case.

00:53:16.380 I mean, within the range that we can study, which as I say, is not the one in a million,

00:53:20.900 but we're probably getting into the one in 10,000 sort of area,

00:53:25.120 which in athletics might be regional champions, you know,

00:53:29.740 but they're not going to be Olympic stars at that level.

00:53:32.660 But at that level of individual differences, the genetics is the same.

00:53:36.840 And so when we get these polygenic scores, there's no break point.

00:53:40.880 It's just a normal distribution.

00:53:43.160 So the more of these positive genes that you have,

00:53:46.400 of which there are thousands that affect any of these traits,

00:53:48.960 the higher you'll be, the propensity is there.

00:53:53.720 It doesn't make you be a super athlete or not.

00:53:57.160 So I think that's really interesting.

00:53:58.900 And the other end of it is important too,

00:54:01.640 that this genetics work is kind of like the nail in the coffin for diagnostic approaches,

00:54:07.380 where the medical model has made us think

00:54:09.700 that the most important thing is to diagnose something properly.

00:54:14.940 And that's true if like in England, the first case of, you know, cholera,

00:54:19.900 what causes cholera?

00:54:21.200 And then to say, what is the cause of cholera?

00:54:24.080 Well, you want to start by making sure you know who has cholera.

00:54:27.180 And a lot of people have tummy problems, but you know, with cholera,

00:54:29.420 you're talking about something more serious.

00:54:30.700 So you diagnose it, then you find the cause,

00:54:33.620 and it turns out it's contaminated drinking water.

00:54:36.140 So that's the medical model of a disorder.

00:54:38.840 And, you know, if you have a single influence,

00:54:43.120 it could be a single gene influence as well,

00:54:45.320 you want to diagnose it carefully and it's dichotomous.

00:54:48.280 This all started with Mendel.

00:54:49.780 You know, if you think of his 7P plant traits that he studied,

00:54:53.240 they were dichotomous.

00:54:54.320 You either have wrinkled seeds or smooth seeds,

00:54:57.620 and that's a single gene causing it.

00:55:00.320 But for common disorders, as well as behavioral traits,

00:55:04.000 it's not like that.

00:55:05.760 There are thousands of tiny effects,

00:55:07.760 and that makes it all probabilistic and not deterministic.

00:55:11.880 You know, there are thousands, 7,000, 10,000 single gene disorders in humans,

00:55:16.940 where a single gene causes a disorder,

00:55:20.020 necessary and sufficient for the development of the disorder.

00:55:23.440 So those are dichotomous, you know, necessary and sufficient.

00:55:26.980 You only get Huntington's disease

00:55:29.920 if you have this mutation on the tip of chromosome 4.

00:55:33.820 And conversely, if you have that mutation,

00:55:36.760 mutation, you will get Huntington's.

00:55:39.220 And, you know, you'll die from Huntington's,

00:55:41.940 regardless of how much you exercise or whatever.

00:55:44.260 It's a single gene disorder.

00:55:45.940 And that's, in a way, a problem for us.

00:55:47.980 That's the way people think about genetics.

00:55:49.680 You say genetics,

00:55:50.980 and for a long time we had to fight in media

00:55:53.120 that you'd have a story in the paper about it,

00:55:55.620 and the headline writer,

00:55:57.000 who's always different from the guy who writes the story,

00:55:59.000 would always say,

00:56:00.200 the gene for.

00:56:01.720 And we're saying,

00:56:02.120 no, it's not a gene.

00:56:03.800 We're talking about,

00:56:04.880 for complex medical disorders,

00:56:07.260 the vast majority,

00:56:08.300 maybe 95% of the medical burden,

00:56:10.760 is not caused by these single gene disorders

00:56:13.380 because they're very rare.

00:56:14.900 Because natural selection gets rid of them

00:56:17.620 if they have reproductive repercussions.

00:56:21.220 So, we're talking about these common disorders,

00:56:25.240 and yet psychiatry has been held back

00:56:27.380 by the medical model

00:56:28.700 where you say,

00:56:30.460 are you schizophrenic or not? 0.94

00:56:32.980 Are you depressed or not? 0.99

00:56:35.340 Are you alcoholic or not?

00:56:36.820 But if you know people who are alcoholic,

00:56:38.640 depressed, or schizophrenic,

00:56:39.600 you know, it's not an either-or thing.

00:56:41.160 You don't wake up one day and you're alcoholic.

00:56:43.560 It's a long, slow process,

00:56:46.000 and some people function a lot better

00:56:48.680 with, you know,

00:56:50.300 at very high levels of alcohol

00:56:52.060 than other people.

00:56:53.680 So, it's really a quantitative thing,

00:56:56.160 not qualitative.

00:56:58.060 And that has a lot of implications,

00:57:00.000 but there's a strong sense in psychiatry now

00:57:03.600 that we've done a disservice to people

00:57:05.560 by pretending that we can diagnose

00:57:08.160 these things precisely

00:57:09.260 so that the mother whose kid

00:57:11.280 has trouble reading can say,

00:57:13.440 oh, I've just found out from the doctor

00:57:15.760 my child has dyslexia.

00:57:18.520 It doesn't mean anything.

00:57:20.640 It really doesn't mean,

00:57:21.500 it just means they have reading problems.

00:57:23.280 But by giving it a medical diagnosis,

00:57:25.600 and especially you give it a Greek or Latin name,

00:57:27.480 that makes it sound really medical.

00:57:28.900 You don't call it hyperactivity.

00:57:31.060 You call it hyperactivity attention deficit disorder.

00:57:34.400 Or math isn't called,

00:57:35.800 kid has a problem with math.

00:57:36.800 It's dyscalculia, you know,

00:57:39.300 to make it sound more medical.

00:57:41.200 But it really does a disservice

00:57:43.120 to pretend that there's those people

00:57:45.960 who are schizophrenic and us normals.

00:57:48.940 And the polygenic scores really show that.

00:57:51.280 We all have thousands of risk factors,

00:57:54.080 tiny genetic risk factors for, say, schizophrenia.

00:57:56.720 In fact, my polygenic score for schizophrenia

00:57:59.320 is quite high.

00:58:00.400 It's maybe at the 85th percentile.

00:58:02.440 Oh, wow.

00:58:03.560 But only 1% of the population

00:58:05.140 gets diagnosed as schizophrenic.

00:58:06.880 So it's a long way from 99%.

00:58:08.880 But still, 85% seems high.

00:58:11.100 And what's cool about that

00:58:12.540 is there's three studies now that say,

00:58:14.780 well, let's look at these people

00:58:16.040 throughout the distribution.

00:58:17.820 And what if you have a high polygenic score?

00:58:21.880 It turns out people from creative professions

00:58:24.660 have higher polygenic scores for schizophrenia.

00:58:27.140 Oh, we could have told you that

00:58:28.220 from our comedy industry experience.

00:58:30.080 But it's not that they're schizophrenic.

00:58:31.580 Perhaps it's that they think outside the box.

00:58:33.620 Yeah.

00:58:33.960 You know?

00:58:34.300 And maybe if you start thinking

00:58:35.940 too far outside the box,

00:58:37.660 you go off the deep end.

00:58:39.280 Yeah.

00:58:39.740 Yeah.

00:58:40.220 I remember watching this program,

00:58:41.960 since we're talking about single genes,

00:58:43.560 and maybe you can disabuse me of this,

00:58:46.020 is I watched this program on the BBC

00:58:47.720 where they said psychopathy

00:58:49.540 could be tracked down in particular

00:58:52.100 to one gene.

00:58:52.940 They called it the warrior gene.

00:58:54.080 Yeah.

00:58:55.080 Is that true that if you have this particular gene,

00:58:57.400 you're far less likely to be empathetic,

00:59:00.520 far less likely to be caring of your fellow human being,

00:59:03.700 and more focused on your own needs?

00:59:05.700 Yeah.

00:59:06.000 No, it's totally wrong.

00:59:07.520 I mean, there was a phase in the 90s

00:59:10.140 when scientists were first able to genotype these genes,

00:59:15.220 and they would focus on a few neurotransmitter genes.

00:59:18.740 I think that's the MAO, monoamine oxidase A or B mutation.

00:59:24.300 Took the words right off my tongue.

00:59:27.560 And so there was a phase there where people were,

00:59:30.980 because it was very expensive to genotype,

00:59:33.260 and they couldn't afford to genotype large samples.

00:59:36.440 So they found,

00:59:39.160 there were several studies that reported

00:59:41.180 the so-called warrior gene.

00:59:43.260 But since then, in the late 90s,

00:59:46.580 people realized these things aren't replicating.

00:59:48.200 And the reason is that this is genetics contribution

00:59:51.580 to the replication crisis.

00:59:53.260 I don't know if you guys have gotten into this at all,

00:59:55.180 but so many major findings don't replicate.

00:59:58.300 Well, that was genetics contribution

00:59:59.640 to the replication crisis,

01:00:02.120 because they did everything wrong.

01:00:03.600 The samples were too small.

01:00:04.780 They only could have detected large effects.

01:00:06.900 And they only published stuff

01:00:08.220 when they got the result that they expected to find.

01:00:12.000 Worse yet, they analyzed things a bunch of different ways

01:00:14.820 to show the one that reached this magical,

01:00:17.520 statistical significance level of 0.05.

01:00:19.600 It's all nonsense stuff that, you know,

01:00:22.620 the replication crisis has tried to solve.

01:00:24.840 It'd be really neat.

01:00:25.500 You should get some guys.

01:00:26.300 Like my colleague, Stuart Ritchie,

01:00:27.800 wrote a book called the great title,

01:00:29.940 Science Fictions,

01:00:31.200 about the replication crisis that came out last year.

01:00:33.900 And it's such an important issue

01:00:36.560 from a science point of view.

01:00:38.320 And I think for the public to realize

01:00:40.040 that a lot of these classic findings,

01:00:42.140 not just in psychology,

01:00:43.320 but worse, in pharmacology, drug studies,

01:00:46.620 medical studies as well,

01:00:48.660 you know, they're not doing science right.

01:00:52.020 I mean, they're not,

01:00:53.520 it's not fraud.

01:00:56.980 It's more a matter of,

01:00:58.640 you know, you just,

01:00:59.520 there's lots of ways to analyze stuff.

01:01:01.200 And they're doing everything

01:01:03.880 to increase the probability

01:01:06.480 of getting this result,

01:01:07.760 in which case statistics is out the window.

01:01:09.900 So it's not fraud,

01:01:10.580 but the outcomes are fraudulent.

01:01:12.380 Or they're wrong anyway.

01:01:13.700 Yeah, yeah.

01:01:14.080 But, you know, science is self-correcting.

01:01:16.520 So that's cool.

01:01:17.940 I mean, you know,

01:01:18.360 that we are able now to say

01:01:19.640 a lot of these findings you see in textbooks are wrong.

01:01:23.080 Yeah, that's fascinating.

01:01:24.820 Robert, we could talk for hours and hours and hours.

01:01:27.520 But before we head towards the end of the interview,

01:01:30.060 one of the things I wanted to talk to you about is the future.

01:01:32.860 What is genetics going to help us do?

01:01:36.440 And what are we going to be able to achieve

01:01:39.820 as a result of the research you've been doing

01:01:41.880 and your colleagues are doing

01:01:42.840 in terms of medical practices,

01:01:45.920 social policy, cultural attitudes,

01:01:48.600 all of these parenting,

01:01:50.180 all of these areas of our lives?

01:01:51.900 What does the future hold for us?

01:01:53.580 And what are some of the benefits of genetic research?

01:01:56.360 Right.

01:01:56.620 Well, I'm glad you asked that

01:01:57.560 because the first 30 years of my career

01:01:59.400 were basically just showing people

01:02:01.300 genetics is important.

01:02:03.100 And that has some implications,

01:02:05.100 you know, like in education, for example,

01:02:07.080 to recognize the kids are different.

01:02:08.560 I would have been happy if my career ended with that.

01:02:10.660 I mean, that was really quite a radical transformation

01:02:13.240 of psychology.

01:02:14.780 But then the DNA revolution came along 0.95

01:02:16.720 with the ability to sequence the human genome,

01:02:19.420 to find the millions of DNA differences between us,

01:02:22.700 to use them to be able to predict genetic influence.

01:02:28.540 And so the future is here now.

01:02:31.760 I mean, there's 80 million pound pilot project

01:02:34.180 with the NHS to do the DNA testing.

01:02:37.220 And in areas like cardiovascular disease,

01:02:40.420 which everything is heritable,

01:02:42.320 that's a little more heritable than most things.

01:02:45.580 If you, the neat thing about DNA

01:02:47.200 is you can predict from birth.

01:02:49.300 And if you can predict, you can prevent.

01:02:52.600 And so all of medicine is moving away from the model

01:02:54.900 where you wait till someone has a heart attack.

01:02:57.880 And it's said that a severe heart attack

01:02:59.500 costs the NHS 700,000 pounds,

01:03:01.660 not counting the loss of quality of life,

01:03:04.740 you know, all in on it.

01:03:07.180 So if you could predict

01:03:08.740 and prevent a heart attack from occurring,

01:03:11.400 you know, it's just a no-brainer.

01:03:13.540 So all of medicine has moved

01:03:15.020 towards this prevention sort of model.

01:03:17.020 And DNA is the best early warning system in town.

01:03:19.820 We know interventions for everything

01:03:21.920 work better earlier than they do later.

01:03:25.220 And we're not that good at fixing things.

01:03:27.320 I mean, we can, you know, patch up your heart,

01:03:29.760 but you still had a massive heart attack

01:03:31.720 and your heart isn't gonna be the way it was before that.

01:03:34.800 So that's where it's happening.

01:03:37.040 And the neat thing is you just get,

01:03:38.700 it costs about, real costs,

01:03:40.700 about 40 quid to do this DNA testing.

01:03:43.500 It's the cheapest thing you can do.

01:03:44.980 And yet that one where you get,

01:03:49.040 it's called a SNP chip,

01:03:50.720 size of a postage stamp,

01:03:52.020 and it can genotype, say,

01:03:53.620 600,000 DNA markers throughout the whole genome.

01:03:56.960 That's what we're basically talking about.

01:03:58.880 It's now moving towards whole genome sequencing

01:04:01.100 where you'd get all 3 billion base pairs of DNA,

01:04:03.980 which is the end of the story.

01:04:05.080 That's all you inherit.

01:04:06.460 But you can do a lot with these SNP chips.

01:04:08.980 And that's what the NHS is currently piloting.

01:04:13.100 Some countries like Finland and Estonia

01:04:15.800 already make this a routine part of medical care.

01:04:19.160 If you go into a hospital,

01:04:20.660 you're asked,

01:04:21.680 would you like us to do these polygenic score predictors?

01:04:25.620 We're only gonna tell you

01:04:26.660 if it's something you can do something about.

01:04:28.800 And you know, with heart risk,

01:04:30.100 I mean, I'm in this category

01:04:31.260 of reasonably high cardiovascular risk,

01:04:34.880 which is the DNA is a lot better information

01:04:37.120 than just my family,

01:04:38.200 because I don't think anyone

01:04:40.140 had a particular heart problem in my family,

01:04:42.380 but I do in the cholesterol and stuff,

01:04:44.660 blood pressure corresponds to that.

01:04:46.740 So if I know that then,

01:04:48.560 I might just pay more attention

01:04:49.940 to the stuff you hear

01:04:51.180 that we're all supposed to do,

01:04:52.300 eat better, exercise more,

01:04:54.060 lose weight,

01:04:54.880 which is a factor in all these things.

01:04:58.060 So, you know,

01:04:59.360 it just seems to be a no-brainer

01:05:00.800 that we wanna go that way.

01:05:02.500 And so it'll happen first in medicine,

01:05:05.100 it's happening already.

01:05:07.020 But people aren't waiting for that.

01:05:09.380 25 million people have paid about 100 quid

01:05:12.000 to have a direct-to-consumer company test their DNA

01:05:14.980 using the same approach.

01:05:17.360 And so dozens of these companies have sprung up

01:05:19.800 to provide information about athletics, cosmetics.

01:05:24.160 I didn't know that.

01:05:24.780 That was a huge area.

01:05:25.820 A lot of, you know,

01:05:26.800 that women might prefer some cosmetics

01:05:30.120 based on their genetics.

01:05:31.240 I guess some cosmetics are more dangerous.

01:05:33.360 I don't know.

01:05:34.100 But then also diet.

01:05:35.840 And now, a bit scary,

01:05:37.780 is the go-to shower gift in Southeast Asia

01:05:41.960 is DNA testing for kids.

01:05:44.880 Parents who want advice

01:05:48.220 on the genetic strengths and weaknesses

01:05:52.320 of their children.

01:05:53.600 And these companies provide parenting information.

01:05:56.680 It's all,

01:05:57.260 I'm kind of doing an expose on that now

01:05:59.240 because I think the results aren't there yet.

01:06:02.400 You can tell a little bit.

01:06:04.120 But, you know,

01:06:04.800 you can make a pretty good prediction

01:06:06.320 about your kid's height, for example.

01:06:09.000 And even the weight...

01:06:09.640 Yeah, he's going to be about 5'8", I promise you.

01:06:11.480 No, no, 6'8", probably.

01:06:14.100 But, and so it's kind of fun

01:06:16.220 to find out about some of these things.

01:06:18.640 But it can also go over the top.

01:06:21.880 And the weird thing is,

01:06:24.560 it's completely unregulated.

01:06:25.800 There's absolutely no regulation.

01:06:27.760 We could just set up a company today,

01:06:29.760 start getting DNA from people,

01:06:31.840 advise them on being comedians or whatever.

01:06:34.680 You know?

01:06:35.080 So that's, it's all kind of wicked.

01:06:37.040 And then the parenting information

01:06:38.160 they give people

01:06:38.920 is not based on any science.

01:06:42.580 Right.

01:06:43.080 So they need to be reined in a bit.

01:06:45.280 But it shows you that

01:06:46.220 there's a tremendous interest

01:06:47.700 from people willing to pay

01:06:49.700 to have this information themselves.

01:06:51.560 I should say that a lot of the people

01:06:53.400 who are paying of the 25 million or so,

01:06:55.480 it's to get ancestry data.

01:06:57.300 Yeah.

01:06:57.580 But the same DNA chip

01:06:59.900 gives you all this other stuff as well.

01:07:01.740 Right.

01:07:02.040 So they get that too.

01:07:03.560 Mm-hmm.

01:07:04.220 Because I think this is undoubtedly

01:07:06.700 going to be an area

01:07:07.860 based on my very layman understanding

01:07:09.600 in which there's a lot of progress made

01:07:12.560 in terms of helping people

01:07:13.780 deal with disease

01:07:14.920 and prevent disease and so on.

01:07:17.200 But I always sort of,

01:07:18.820 there's a hesitation

01:07:19.660 in the back of my mind

01:07:20.600 if I'm honest with you, Robert,

01:07:21.800 where I worry that we're

01:07:24.480 at some point

01:07:24.940 going to get to a minority report

01:07:26.700 sort of situation

01:07:27.600 where it's like,

01:07:28.180 oh, you have a,

01:07:29.360 you're in the 96% percentile

01:07:31.340 for committing violent crime,

01:07:33.820 off to the prison you go

01:07:35.020 type of situation.

01:07:36.500 Is that,

01:07:37.040 is that something

01:07:37.640 we should be, you know,

01:07:38.620 extra careful about

01:07:39.640 when we're exploring these issues?

01:07:41.580 Yeah.

01:07:41.940 Well, people usually bring up the movie,

01:07:43.320 the 1996 movie,

01:07:45.140 Gattaca,

01:07:45.760 along those lines

01:07:46.520 because that's probably

01:07:47.260 more relevant

01:07:48.160 because that was Gattaca,

01:07:49.580 G-A-T's and C's 1.00

01:07:50.680 are the four nucleotide letters

01:07:52.620 in the DNA alphabet.

01:07:54.760 And so that's all about this

01:07:56.840 as well as 1984 was,

01:07:58.940 you know,

01:07:59.060 really all these utopias

01:08:00.320 have a view

01:08:01.000 on this sort of thing.

01:08:02.900 But I know what you mean

01:08:04.320 with minority report

01:08:05.140 if they had

01:08:06.100 these polygenic scores.

01:08:07.640 And minority report 0.92

01:08:08.580 was silly 0.95

01:08:09.080 with the neural 0.97

01:08:09.980 sort of thing.

01:08:11.380 But you're absolutely right.

01:08:13.040 You could

01:08:13.380 substitute DNA there.

01:08:15.340 But if you did,

01:08:16.760 you'd know that

01:08:17.440 you never have

01:08:18.320 100% prediction.

01:08:20.400 So that's a big difference.

01:08:22.760 You know,

01:08:22.940 it's only a propensity.

01:08:24.520 And even that propensity

01:08:26.260 is not deterministic.

01:08:28.020 I mean,

01:08:28.320 I think a good example

01:08:29.380 is alcoholism.

01:08:30.300 We can't predict

01:08:31.040 too much now,

01:08:32.000 but we can

01:08:32.480 make some prediction.

01:08:33.800 I don't know what it is,

01:08:34.500 4% or 5%

01:08:35.640 of the variance.

01:08:37.280 And if you knew

01:08:38.100 you were at risk

01:08:38.900 for alcoholism,

01:08:40.140 you would also know

01:08:41.300 you cannot become alcoholic

01:08:42.760 if you don't drink alcohol,

01:08:44.460 a lot of alcohol

01:08:45.280 over a lot of time.

01:08:46.780 It's not like you drink

01:08:47.500 one drink

01:08:48.000 and you're alcoholic.

01:08:49.480 So if your kid

01:08:50.300 had a high risk

01:08:51.260 for alcoholism,

01:08:53.140 even though it's not

01:08:53.860 very predictive,

01:08:54.680 you might just...

01:08:55.320 I mean, he's Russian gene,

01:08:56.480 so he's 100%.

01:08:58.040 I was thinking that way.

01:08:59.660 And you could say,

01:09:01.040 well,

01:09:01.520 we all hear the advice,

01:09:03.180 you know,

01:09:03.600 drink sensibly,

01:09:04.940 take holidays from it

01:09:06.400 to see how much

01:09:07.220 you're dependent on it.

01:09:09.640 But if you knew

01:09:10.580 you had the genetic risk,

01:09:11.660 it's such a low-tech,

01:09:12.860 low-cost intervention

01:09:14.120 to say,

01:09:14.860 maybe you'll pay

01:09:15.460 more attention to it.

01:09:16.900 So when your son

01:09:17.540 reaches adolescence,

01:09:18.560 you say,

01:09:19.280 you know,

01:09:19.660 it doesn't mean

01:09:20.340 you're going to become

01:09:20.900 alcoholic,

01:09:21.840 even if you have

01:09:22.480 a high polygenic score

01:09:23.480 for alcoholism,

01:09:24.400 but maybe you're

01:09:25.140 a little bit more

01:09:25.820 at risk than your friends.

01:09:27.560 So when they all get

01:09:28.800 bombed out of their minds,

01:09:30.860 you might want to

01:09:31.720 stop and say,

01:09:32.580 well,

01:09:32.840 is that really worth it?

01:09:34.040 Is it worth taking

01:09:34.740 that risk?

01:09:36.080 You know?

01:09:36.360 So I think you can do

01:09:37.500 these things

01:09:38.100 with body weight,

01:09:39.860 cardiovascular,

01:09:40.440 alcoholism.

01:09:41.960 You can do it

01:09:42.620 at a low-tech level

01:09:43.920 and then maybe

01:09:44.960 eventually we'll go

01:09:45.740 to higher-tech

01:09:46.960 approaches to it.

01:09:48.780 But I can...

01:09:50.540 So what I'm saying

01:09:51.380 is I'm a cheerleader

01:09:52.100 for this stuff

01:09:52.780 because there's

01:09:53.520 so many people

01:09:54.420 who worry about

01:09:55.580 so much of this.

01:09:56.980 You know,

01:09:57.220 not just the concern

01:09:58.680 you have,

01:09:59.300 but data,

01:10:03.280 you know,

01:10:04.200 stealing data

01:10:05.080 and,

01:10:05.600 you know,

01:10:06.440 big data,

01:10:08.620 finding out

01:10:09.020 everything about us.

01:10:10.600 You know,

01:10:10.760 so there are

01:10:11.500 a lot of things

01:10:12.180 to be concerned about,

01:10:13.620 but for me,

01:10:14.820 the positives

01:10:15.420 just so outweigh

01:10:16.720 the negatives

01:10:17.600 and I don't know

01:10:19.440 why everybody

01:10:19.840 focuses on the negatives.

01:10:21.320 We need some people

01:10:22.140 like me saying,

01:10:23.240 but wait a minute,

01:10:23.760 there's some

01:10:24.120 incredibly positive

01:10:25.400 things here.

01:10:26.380 Like,

01:10:26.580 wouldn't you want

01:10:27.040 to know that,

01:10:28.340 what is it,

01:10:28.700 something like 5%

01:10:29.800 of the male population

01:10:30.680 is like at a,

01:10:32.140 is it a five,

01:10:34.220 six-fold greater risk

01:10:35.540 of having a severe

01:10:36.720 heart attack

01:10:37.360 based on this

01:10:38.380 genetic information?

01:10:40.080 Wouldn't you want

01:10:40.740 to know that?

01:10:41.240 It just seems to me

01:10:42.040 like such a non-brainer.

01:10:43.660 When I give a public lecture

01:10:44.760 and I talk about

01:10:45.500 like Alzheimer's,

01:10:46.900 for example,

01:10:47.660 if you do 23andMe,

01:10:49.000 which is the most popular

01:10:49.960 of these direct-to-consumer

01:10:51.100 companies,

01:10:52.740 one of the things

01:10:53.820 you find out about

01:10:54.440 is your risk

01:10:54.900 for alcoholism.

01:10:55.860 Now,

01:10:56.080 there's just a couple

01:10:56.860 of genes there

01:10:57.680 that make a big difference,

01:10:59.060 but it goes from

01:10:59.820 having a,

01:11:00.760 say,

01:11:01.140 10,

01:11:01.480 15% risk

01:11:02.500 of Alzheimer's

01:11:03.920 at 80,

01:11:04.780 85,

01:11:05.920 you know,

01:11:06.140 late in life,

01:11:06.560 from 10,

01:11:07.800 15% to 60-some percent.

01:11:10.060 That's not 100%,

01:11:10.960 but as medical risks go,

01:11:12.240 that's astronomical.

01:11:14.300 And so,

01:11:15.080 if you do 23andMe,

01:11:17.020 they finally made you

01:11:18.760 have a triple lock on it.

01:11:20.040 You had to say,

01:11:20.920 yes,

01:11:21.200 I want to know about it.

01:11:22.120 And then,

01:11:22.760 yes,

01:11:23.020 I've read this stuff

01:11:23.800 you gave me a link for.

01:11:25.060 And yes,

01:11:25.680 I won't hold you

01:11:26.300 responsible for that.

01:11:27.100 But then you find out

01:11:28.060 if you're in the unlucky

01:11:29.140 1% of the population

01:11:31.180 that has this 60-fold

01:11:33.340 percent risk,

01:11:34.240 and you can find that

01:11:34.840 out for your kid.

01:11:36.180 I mean,

01:11:36.360 so you can find it out

01:11:37.080 very early in life.

01:11:38.040 So I ask a public audience,

01:11:39.640 would you want to know?

01:11:40.560 And it's interesting.

01:11:41.300 It splits right down the middle.

01:11:43.180 Half of the people say,

01:11:44.340 you know,

01:11:44.840 definitely not.

01:11:45.820 There's nothing you can do about it.

01:11:47.420 But the other half,

01:11:48.260 like me,

01:11:48.660 says,

01:11:49.340 yeah,

01:11:49.860 knowledge is power.

01:11:50.760 I want to know.

01:11:52.520 And I mean,

01:11:53.460 for me,

01:11:54.000 you can do something about it.

01:11:55.560 Maybe you can't do anything

01:11:56.580 medically about it.

01:11:57.720 But if you knew

01:11:58.740 that you were at this

01:11:59.560 very substantial risk

01:12:00.820 for having Alzheimer's

01:12:01.680 when you got older,

01:12:02.200 you'd arrange social care,

01:12:04.580 you'd try to set yourself

01:12:06.000 up economically,

01:12:07.620 and importantly,

01:12:09.800 I think,

01:12:10.120 a little bit more

01:12:10.680 carpe diem,

01:12:11.700 you know,

01:12:11.960 where people say,

01:12:12.820 I'm not going to spend

01:12:13.740 my whole life

01:12:14.360 so that I set myself up

01:12:16.100 when I'm in my 80s.

01:12:18.040 You know,

01:12:18.540 I'm going to live life now

01:12:19.860 a bit more.

01:12:21.080 So I think there are things

01:12:22.060 you can do about it,

01:12:22.860 but it is interesting

01:12:23.860 how people split down

01:12:25.140 in the middle on that.

01:12:27.620 It is.

01:12:28.100 It is.

01:12:29.420 Robert,

01:12:29.920 it's been fascinating.

01:12:31.140 We must have you back.

01:12:32.580 I'd love to come back.

01:12:33.600 It's been about your kid

01:12:34.520 and how he's developing.

01:12:35.200 Well,

01:12:35.540 and perhaps you'll write

01:12:36.700 that parenting book

01:12:37.380 that I can use.

01:12:38.240 I started,

01:12:39.060 but I just can't write like that.

01:12:40.360 To write a parenting book,

01:12:41.260 you really have to write,

01:12:42.340 you have to get down

01:12:43.080 with the people.

01:12:43.840 And my book,

01:12:44.660 I thought,

01:12:45.000 Blueprint,

01:12:45.460 I thought was very low level.

01:12:47.040 I had to hold my nose

01:12:47.960 on some of the stuff talking.

01:12:49.440 You know,

01:12:49.580 they want you to talk

01:12:50.040 about yourself

01:12:50.680 and your life

01:12:51.520 and talk about

01:12:52.240 sailing trip across.

01:12:53.840 And with the kids,

01:12:54.840 you know,

01:12:55.280 the parenting books,

01:12:56.520 God,

01:12:56.820 they're so low level

01:12:58.540 and condescending.

01:12:59.180 I just can't.

01:13:00.020 I just can't do it,

01:13:01.520 you know?

01:13:02.480 Well,

01:13:02.940 we'll bring you back

01:13:03.620 and talk about it at least.

01:13:04.700 Okay,

01:13:05.000 I'd love to do that.

01:13:06.200 But our final question

01:13:07.380 is always the same.

01:13:08.480 What is the one thing

01:13:09.200 we're not talking about

01:13:10.240 that we really should be?

01:13:13.580 Well,

01:13:14.000 we have talked about parenting,

01:13:15.140 which is important.

01:13:15.960 I think the DNA revolution

01:13:17.200 hasn't quite sunk in.

01:13:18.700 Like,

01:13:18.980 I don't know how many people

01:13:19.860 know there's this

01:13:20.400 80 million pound trial

01:13:21.700 in the NHS for this.

01:13:23.920 And so,

01:13:24.200 the reason I wrote

01:13:25.320 the book Blueprint

01:13:25.940 is I wanted to give people

01:13:27.200 the literacy

01:13:28.480 they need

01:13:29.720 to discuss

01:13:30.480 these important issues.

01:13:32.660 This isn't like

01:13:33.320 a lot of medical things.

01:13:34.460 You know,

01:13:34.620 if you've ever noticed,

01:13:35.260 you hear of a discovery

01:13:36.320 and they say,

01:13:37.020 in 10 years,

01:13:37.720 this is going to be big.

01:13:38.620 That means

01:13:39.120 they have no idea

01:13:40.020 if it's going to happen.

01:13:40.620 If they say five years,

01:13:42.060 it means maybe it'll happen.

01:13:43.720 But the point about this

01:13:44.520 is it's happening now.

01:13:46.240 And this is really transformational.

01:13:48.600 So,

01:13:48.980 I think people need

01:13:49.660 to know about it.

01:13:50.980 And I just hope

01:13:51.780 we can have podcasts

01:13:53.120 like yours

01:13:53.780 where you teach people

01:13:55.160 how to discuss

01:13:56.400 these firmly held views

01:13:57.840 as adults

01:13:58.520 and just say,

01:13:59.540 these aren't simple issues.

01:14:01.060 You know,

01:14:01.300 there are things to discuss.

01:14:03.240 But can't we just

01:14:04.160 discuss them reasonably?

01:14:06.520 Not at the moment,

01:14:07.500 it would seem.

01:14:08.080 But we are trying

01:14:09.380 and you're trying, Robert.

01:14:10.320 It's been an absolute pleasure.

01:14:11.500 Thank you so much.

01:14:12.140 The book is, of course,

01:14:12.980 Blueprint.

01:14:13.760 I really recommend

01:14:14.660 everybody gets it.

01:14:16.120 We're going to ask you

01:14:16.720 a couple of questions

01:14:17.660 from our supporters,

01:14:19.060 for our supporters.

01:14:20.060 But for now,

01:14:20.800 thank you so much for your time.

01:14:21.820 My pleasure.

01:14:22.180 It's been an absolute pleasure.

01:14:23.300 And thank you for watching

01:14:24.660 and listening.

01:14:25.520 We will see you very soon

01:14:26.840 with another brilliant episode

01:14:28.160 like this one

01:14:28.960 or our show.

01:14:30.420 All of them go out

01:14:31.180 at 7 p.m. UK time.

01:14:32.240 And for those of you

01:14:33.000 who like your trigonometry

01:14:34.100 on the go,

01:14:35.080 it's also available

01:14:36.000 as a podcast.

01:14:37.200 Take care

01:14:37.780 and see you soon, guys.

01:14:41.040 Is it theoretically possible

01:14:42.700 that the genetic component

01:14:44.080 of intelligence

01:14:44.840 could be edited

01:14:45.640 pre- or post-conception?

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TRIGGERnometry - July 04, 2022

How Your DNA Made You Who You Are - Robert Plomin

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