00:15:59.000And next to it, there was the 49th combined arms army.
00:16:01.820These two armies stormed from the occupied Crimean peninsula towards the north.
00:16:09.740And now the 58th had a very important task, which was to reach Zaporozhia and to reach Mariupol from the west.
00:16:18.960And the 49th had at least as an important task, which was to take Kherson, take Mykolaiv, and then advance all the way to the border with Moldova.
00:16:33.820And in that way, Putin was aiming not only to take away the entire Ukrainian coast away from Ukraine, to bring it under his control, but also to establish land connection to Transnistria.
00:16:57.380And these two armies have, thanks to treachery, obvious treachery, on the part of, I don't know exactly which.
00:17:45.680The 35th Combined Arms Army did manage to reach outskirts of Kiev, but in turn was almost cut off from its supply lines.
00:17:56.040And there was this huge, because there was only one highway it could use to reach Kiev.
00:18:01.520So it was slowed down, bogged down by its own supply problems.
00:18:05.940The 41st Combined Arms Army, which was advancing on Chernihiv, fell apart in the process of advancing on Chernihiv,
00:18:13.680in the face of relatively light resistance by one and a half, something like one and a half Ukrainian brigades.
00:18:20.560So it fell apart while advancing for 70 to 80 kilometers to Chernihiv.
00:18:25.840You have the 1st Guards Tanks Army, the elite of the Russian Armed Forces.
00:18:33.480It fell apart while passing by Sumy and trying to advance towards Kiev from the east.
00:18:39.820And worst of all, the two armies that were advancing, that were tasked with capturing Kharkiv, they also actually fell apart in the process.
00:18:52.300I mean, there were only two Ukrainian brigades offering serious resistance in the Kharkiv area during the first week of war.
00:18:58.460And they didn't manage to drive around the city.
00:19:44.280They are even reinforced by airborne troops now in August.
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00:20:18.640So, Tom, looking at the situation now, do you think the Russians are going to be happy with what they have, or would they regard this invasion as a failure at this particular moment?
00:20:32.820When we talk about Russians, I'm again, I'm a little bit insistent in this regards.
00:20:39.420There is Putin, and there are Russian, let's say, nationalists, chauvinists, extremists, whatever you want to call them, and then there are Russians, OK?
00:20:47.100Now, Putin is not happy, but because he's all the time forced to downsize his aims for what he wants to do in Ukraine.
00:20:58.600Initially, he wants to take over all of the country, then just the country east of the Dnipro River, then now, you know, just secure Luhansk and Donetsk and Kherson and Zaporozhia.
00:21:10.100Meanwhile, he is even to less than this, and so on and so on.
00:21:14.620Then you have the Russian extremists who are actually misused by Putin for his purposes.
00:21:22.240This is where you get the story about the history of Russia and Ukraine is so complex and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
00:21:27.340They are daydreaming about things, you know, and have actually no other purpose but keeping or helping keep Putin in power.
00:21:38.860Most of them have actually no say in any kind of decision making.
00:21:42.940They are just, you know, led to cash their income from TV appearances and so on, or by being representatives in the Duma, in the Russian parliament.
00:21:52.280Then you have the rest of the Russians.
00:21:53.700What is this rest of the Russians actually doing?
00:21:56.840This is the majority of the population, over 90%.
00:21:59.680Nobody really knows because Putin wouldn't let us know, wouldn't even let them know what do they want.
00:22:06.700Some of them are probably pro-Putin or at least pro-Russia, against Ukraine, and really convinced that Ukraine is controlled by some kind of Nazi regime.
00:22:19.500They are fighting their everyday life for survival, fighting their everyday struggle for survival, nothing else, you know.
00:22:27.220So it is making quite distinctions between this.
00:22:30.840But the crucial point is Putin is not happy with what he has achieved or failed to achieve so far.
00:22:37.040And he is definitely determined to continue, you know, holding as much of Ukraine as possible.
00:22:43.300And Tom, this brings us nicely onto last week's events where there was a huge counterattack.
00:22:50.800There was a small counterattack in the south, Niherson, and a big counterattack, which was very successful in the north.
00:22:57.560And I am someone who's observing this conflict, and I have my loyalties, but I also try to be objective about it as well, of course.
00:23:07.420And while I was very happy to see the counterattack succeed in the way that it did, I was a bit concerned that people in the west got overexcited about it.
00:23:17.080Because, yes, the Russians abandoned a lot of military equipment, yes, ammunition, yes, land, but they didn't lose huge numbers of troops.
00:23:28.580How significant, first of all, was the counterattack?
00:23:31.640What should people in the west who are lay people like us watching this take away from it?
00:23:36.680Is this some, a lot of people seem to think this is like the end of the war.
00:23:40.160Can you tell us what this actually means?
00:23:42.900It is just another episode in this war, nothing else.
00:23:45.660I have to, even if trying to explain this to a layman, I have to go into a little bit of technical details.
00:23:56.520For example, the number of brigades deployed in Kherson for this counteroffensive in late August is the same like the number of brigades deployed for this counteroffensive in eastern Kharkiv a few days later.
00:24:09.500So the force is not that different or anything.
00:24:14.420Where there is a difference is that in eastern Kharkiv, the Ukrainians have managed to find a sector of front line where the Russian artillery was not that overwhelming them as it is on other important parts of the front line.
00:24:30.100And this enabled them to concentrate, particularly lots of forces, which is some seven or eight brigades on a very small area to overpower, quickly overpower the Russian front line and punch through to get into the rear of the Russian front line.
00:24:47.000In Kherson, they didn't manage that yet in Kherson, they are all the time trying to breach the Russian front line, but so far have, with a few temporary exceptions, they have not managed to reach this breakthrough at operational level, as it's called in military vocabulary.
00:25:10.740In Kherson, they have moved the front lines, they have pushed the Russians back, they have liberated a lot of places, but overall, the Russian armed forces in Kherson are still, well, depleted but intact.
00:25:23.740What happened in eastern Kharkiv is that once they have breached the front line, which was a sector of front line, which was poorly occupied by the Russians, they have managed to drive through very deep into the Russian back.
00:25:39.740What then happened was inertia, so called inertia, in response to several Russian counter attacks, all of which came from the north.
00:25:48.740The Ukrainian troops moved, or involved Ukrainian brigades moved towards the north too.
00:25:53.740It is also so that by trying to move from Balakleya towards the south, towards the Izium, they were slowed down by ever stronger units of Russian army.
00:26:05.740So instead, on Izium, they went for Kupiansk instead.
00:26:10.740This has collapsed the entire northern section of the Russian front line, really threw everybody into chaos.
00:26:17.740And this is what resulted in this massive retreat and lots of vehicles being abandoned and so on.
00:26:23.740And Ukrainians liberating, you know, dozens, 30, 40, 50, 60 villages, Kupiansk, and everything else, reaching the Oskil River.
00:26:32.740But the actual aim of that operation, which is a guess, I do not have any kind of evidence for this, but this is logical, was actually to drive into the rear, into the back of the first guards tank army in the Izium area.
00:26:45.740And this is what they have, they have not initially managed.
00:27:00.740It is not running around the Oskil River.
00:27:03.740So they had a problem to approach this, this area.
00:27:05.740And when they finally approached Izium, they have passed by the town, because there were too many Russian forces inside the town.
00:27:14.740They were still resisting too fiercely.
00:27:17.740And at that point in time, it would have been crucial for the Ukrainian troops on the southern side of the resulting bulge, so to say, to punch through the Russian front lines and to close the trap, so to say, around the first guards army.
00:27:35.740They have attempted to do so, but they didn't manage that.
00:27:38.740And this is why the first guards army actually managed to run away, to escape.
00:27:43.740Of course, it has lost, what, 100, 150 tanks, and around 100 armored fighting vehicles, and so on.
00:27:51.740But if you check the losses, you can see that Russia has lost very few artillery during this operation.
00:27:58.740It is something like 18, 20 artillery pieces.
00:28:31.740But artillery pieces, this would have been much harder to replace.
00:28:35.740And on the contrary, they have managed to extract most of their artillery towards the Svatovy area.
00:28:41.740And those, as much as an immense success, because, especially because, you know, it is the first major Ukrainian offensive that has really been successful on its own, so to say.
00:28:55.740The Ukrainians have really beaten the Russians.
00:29:11.740You know, now the Ukrainians have to find another place where they are going to attack again and perhaps achieve something similar.
00:29:19.740In the meantime, we shouldn't forget that the Russians remain on offensive, on initiative, all the way further down south, you know, southeastern Ukraine.
00:29:31.740They are still attacking along the former line of control and so on and so on.
00:29:35.740So it is far away, far away from ending this war.
00:29:40.740And Tom, are there causes for optimism?
00:29:44.740Because I was reading some of your articles on Medium, there's a lot of, I think it's weaponry that the Ukrainians haven't yet received yet.
00:29:55.740Which means that they'll be strengthened when it comes to the battles in the coming months.
00:30:18.740Russia remains superior in regards of artillery and vastly superior to Ukraine.
00:30:24.740Just like before these two operations.
00:30:26.740This is what is holding Kherson together, Russian forces in Kherson together.
00:30:30.740This is why their front line is not collapsing, because they still have more artillery than Ukrainians over there.
00:30:35.740Which means they are still capable of hampering Ukrainian attempts to drive between their Russian fortifications, between Russian strongholds, and outflank them and cut them off from their supply lines.
00:30:48.740This is the reason why that's so important, the artillery.
00:30:52.740The West hasn't, still hasn't taken care to provide enough artillery to Ukraine.
00:31:02.740And this is not going to change anytime soon.
00:31:39.740It means that governments, whether the US or governments of the European part of the NATO, can spend to buy yet more weapons that are currently in production from the defense sector.
00:32:02.740This is because the defense sector, the companies which are selling these weapons, which are manufacturing them, sorry, this is like in every other aspect of our economic life.
00:32:14.740They are bribing governments to buy weapons, not to deliver old ones from the reserve.
00:32:21.740What I was going to ask you then, I suppose the obvious question is, does the West actually want Ukraine to win?
00:32:28.740Yes, but the West does want Ukraine to win, but in the West you do not have, the politicians in the West, they do not have this clear idea of fighting war to win.
00:32:44.740For them, fighting a war is an opportunity to profit for companies, for private and corporate interests, supporting them, paying their election campaigns and so on, for such interest to profit.
00:33:01.740So you have the same situation like all the time since Vietnam already, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, you know, for the West, it's better in the interest of politicians and the economy, it's better to fight a war to profit, not to win.
00:33:14.740Because if you fight to win, you, you know, you send 1000 artillery pieces to Ukraine, Ukraine defeats Russia tomorrow in the morning, which is now hyperbola.
00:33:34.740But if you, you know, keep Ukraine afloat and supply it with weapons, which are currently under production, your sponsors in the rear, the guys in the shade, in the shadow, they are profiting, everything is fine, you know, and we go on just like nothing happened.
00:33:50.740The only thing disturbing all of this, the party is, is this story with, with gas deliveries and high energy prices.
00:33:58.740Oh, gosh, this is a little bit disturbing because, you know, the population is against this and we have to do something and curb the high energy prices.
00:34:06.740We have to keep this under, under control, you know, at least to pretend we are trying to keep them under control and so on, although it would be very easy.
00:34:14.740But well, that's liberal democracy and economy.
00:34:20.740And Tom, what difference is winter going to make to this conflict?
00:34:24.740Because it's around the corner in a couple of months and Ukrainian winters are notoriously bitter.
00:34:31.740Well, what is making, it's going to bring bigger advantages for Ukraine.
00:34:35.740The primary reason so far why the Russian armed forces were relatively successful, which is actually just one segment of Russian armed forces.
00:34:44.740This is the ground forces have been successful the last, let's say, since April, since it, since it got warmer in Ukraine,
00:34:52.740is the combination between their, their UAVs, Orlan 10 in particular, and their artillery.
00:35:00.740Orlan 10 is a very rather, or rather primitive military system.
00:35:09.740It's actually only the, the fuselage and wings are military grade.
00:35:13.740Everything else is actually bought on, on open market.
00:35:15.740You know, Canon cameras and Canon video cameras and, and ECM systems.
00:35:20.740Everything they install into these UAVs is civilian grade equipment, which means that it cannot work at temperatures below five degrees centigrade.
00:35:31.740Which in turn means as soon as it's freezing outside, the Russians are going to be blind along the battlefield.
00:35:39.740Then they are going to have huge problems with finding the Ukrainians along with that.
00:35:44.740This is why Russians have now rushed to buy UAVs from, from Iran, because Iran, thanks to, to Chinese support and, and technical support and know-how,
00:35:53.740and even organizational production in Iran, Iran is capable of delivering military grade UAVs.
00:36:00.740So the Russians are obviously planning to replace their, their, their own UAVs, which are useless in winter, by Iranian UAVs.
00:36:07.740We're going to see if this is going to be effective or not.
00:36:10.740But generally, Ukraine should be on advantage.
00:36:14.740So that's very interesting because I would have thought that it would, you know, it would help the Russians because they push them back and they can.
00:36:22.740And look, again, I'm a layman, but you know, you can restrict, you know, the flow of goods and whatever else.
00:36:27.740He just thinks the Russians are invulnerable to the cold.
00:36:34.740But I, I would have thought that they, it would, it would help them to kind of not starve the Ukrainians out, but certainly make things far more uncomfortable for them.
00:36:43.740I mean, we have to distinguish between Ukrainian armed forces and Ukrainian civilians.
00:36:47.740We have, there are millions and millions of Ukrainians in Eastern Ukraine feeling this war on their, you know, direct impact upon their everyday life.
00:36:59.740They are going to be hungry and so on.
00:37:01.740And they are not going to survive without extensive aid from, from the West and from Kiev and so on.
00:37:07.740This is one part of the story, but Ukrainian armed forces, they have no problem.
00:37:11.740They are already in the process of distributing winter clothing and winter equipment on their, to their troops.
00:37:18.740So this is not going to be that much of a problem.
00:37:21.740Clothing, food, fuel, as you can see, the Ukrainian supply system is working perfectly.
00:37:27.740And the Russians have massive problems just trying to find it, you know, in order to hit it, for example, from the air with, with, with cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and so on.
00:37:38.740They're not successful in this regards.
00:37:40.740So this is not a problem for the Ukrainian armed forces.
00:37:44.740On the contrary, because of the system put in and because of all the lies with which they are feeding their people for, for decades already.
00:37:51.740And because now they're starting to realize the extension of these lies, the morale is very low.
00:38:00.740And then you have the system put in in regards of command system, where the, where the Putin is bypassing all the normal chain of command in the armed forces.
00:38:09.740And all the issue, issuing direct orders upon field commanders, which is spoiling everything.
00:38:16.740He's throwing, you know, every single day, he's throwing the Russian military doctrine and strategy out of the window, ignoring them completely and issuing.
00:38:24.740Issuing ever new orders for assaults on specific objects and so on, which result in heavy casualties.
00:38:34.740Why? Because he thinks that his favorites owe him a favor or returning a favor, all the favors he has granted to them.
00:38:44.740And so this is a vicious circle inside Russia, which is going to result, you know, in further debacles like this one in Eastern Kharkiv now.
00:38:54.740This is going to happen time and again.
00:38:56.740However, in between of this or such debacles, there are going to be, you know, periods of many months,
00:39:03.740where the Ukrainians will have to maneuver to find such big spots in Russian frontlines in order to exploit them.
00:39:11.740That is going to be crucial for the coming winter.
00:39:14.740Hey, Konstantin, do you want better mental health?
00:39:18.740I'm from Russia. We don't have mental health.
00:39:20.740So how do you deal with mental health?
00:39:22.740You drink vodka, then go out and wrestle bear.
00:39:25.740If you live, you feel better. If you die, you're not real man.
00:42:21.740So you talked about you talked about the civilian infrastructure and so on.
00:42:28.740And one of the things we saw as it seems to me, at least correct me if I'm wrong, is the immediate reaction from Russia to the Kharkiv counter assault has been to attack civilian infrastructure, power lines, water supply lines, etc.
00:43:28.740And one of the things we talked about earlier in the conversation that I really wanted to discuss with you is you mentioned that in addition to Putin's regime and ordinary Russians,
00:43:37.740there are also another sliver of people in between who are actually protesting against Putin privately or in their private telegram channels and whatever,
00:43:48.740who are saying that Putin is weak and he's not doing enough.
00:43:52.740And what he needs to do is announce full mobilization, put the economy on a war footing, mobilize every man between 18 and 45 or whatever it would be, 35,
00:44:05.740and announce that this is no longer a special military operation.
00:46:12.740Who would tell them where to sleep by night?
00:46:15.740There are too few officers and non-commissioned officers left in the Russian armed forces to do this kind of job, organization and logistics for such a huge army.
00:46:27.740So it would take, you know, they would get millions of people into the army and these would stand around the barracks and we don't know what to do.
00:46:35.740Because there are too few commanders to command them, actually.
00:46:38.740Just to command them, not to talk about training them.
00:46:41.740And then you have, you know, all of this is rolling further.
00:46:46.740Who is going to issue them with weapons?
00:46:48.740Who is going to train them on weapons?
00:46:49.740Who is going to form coherent units from them, you know, from platoon up to company level, to battalion level, to brigade level, to divisionary level?
00:47:26.740Most of such people are ending serving in private military companies, which is one of the things which that is, I would say, quite ignored in the rest.
00:47:37.740Just how many battalion tactical groups, for example, Redout, private military company or Wagner, which is much better known, have on the front lines.
00:47:47.740How dependent on their operations is Putin meanwhile.
00:47:52.740This is something nobody is talking about.
00:47:54.740Everybody is talking about Russian armed forces.
00:47:56.740But whenever you check all the major advances of Russia over the last four or five months, it's always a private military company that led the advance,
00:48:06.740that led to penetration of the Ukrainian front lines.
00:48:18.740Yeah, I want to come back to the PMC, but go ahead, Francis.
00:48:20.740No, but Tom, see, maybe I take a romanticized approach to this and I think to myself, you know, nobody is going to fight harder for their country than a Ukrainian soldier or a Russian soldier.
00:48:32.740What you're saying is these people are effectively mercenaries.
00:48:36.740But doesn't that mean that they're going to have less allegiance to the cause that they're fighting for because they're there to get paid, essentially?
00:48:44.740What should an average Russian fight for in Ukraine?
00:49:31.740And this is how he come already so far that even veterans of the war of the Soviet war in Afghanistan in 1980s are serving on the front lines.
01:02:59.740Because, generally, I see humanity as a positive, how should I say this, positively developing appearance in the nature.
01:03:12.740I mean, we are doing lots of idiotic things and killing each other and killing the nature and so on.
01:03:19.740But sooner or later, at least 5 before 12, you usually get sane, you know, after hitting the wall with our foreheads some 500 to 1,000 times.
01:03:28.740You usually get sane and reasonable and start doing things the right way.
01:03:33.740So, I think it's going to be this way in this case as well.
01:03:36.740As I said, generally, I am optimistic about the future.
01:03:41.740Well, on that happy note, at least, Tom, we will wrap it up there.
01:03:46.740We're going to ask you a couple of questions for our supporters that they've already submitted for our locals.
01:03:51.740But before we let you go, and by the way, thank you so much for this.
01:03:54.740I'm sure we would love to have you back when there's more developments in this conflict in the future.
01:03:59.740But the question we always ask our guests before we let them go is,
01:04:03.740what is the one thing that we're not talking about as a society that you think we really should be?