TRIGGERnometry - LIVE Iran Update with Mahyar Tousi

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00:00:30.000 Hello, everybody, and welcome to this very special live stream.

00:00:35.860 We are going to be doing something the mainstream media, for some inexplicable reason, is failing to do,

00:00:40.720 which is talk about events in Iran.

00:00:43.280 And there's literally no one we could think of who's better to talk about this.

00:00:47.140 And Maya Tusi, former guest of Trigonometry, Iranian himself, he has family in the country.

00:00:51.820 Maya, without wasting any more time, our time is precious here.

00:00:55.080 What has been going on in Iran for the last 12 days?

00:00:58.200 Yeah, well, thanks for having me, guys.

00:00:59.600 Yeah, 12 days now, in case people haven't seen, because the Western global media are not really reporting any of this.

00:01:05.900 There was initially a protest on the first day, which was triggered by everything that's been going on economically and everything else.

00:01:14.660 But this has been boiling up and building up.

00:01:18.660 The people have been waiting for an opportunity for an uprising against the Islamic Republic, 0.91

00:01:23.660 something that has been, we've seen waves every few years in Iran.

00:01:27.300 But the regime have been very good at doing crackdown.

00:01:30.080 And this time they have been falling apart, the regime.

00:01:33.820 12 days in a row, 12 battles, and the Iranian people have been having taken control of over 100 cities around the country. 0.89

00:01:42.360 And I think that's partly one of the reasons they've been struggling,

00:01:44.540 because usually these protests or uprisings have been in one or two main cities.

00:01:49.160 So they've been uprisings, obviously it's been chaos, but it's still going on.

00:01:54.300 And President Trump has been warning the regime, if you start killing many people,

00:02:00.400 then of course the United States will have to intervene.

00:02:02.720 So we'll have to see what's going on.

00:02:05.500 And what is happening so far in terms of the brutality of the attempts to crackdown?

00:02:12.120 I know that we've seen some footage of people being taken to hospital.

00:02:15.920 Is the regime killing people at this point?

00:02:18.440 Where are we?

00:02:19.260 So the official numbers from the regime themselves over the last, well, the first 11 days was about 40.

00:02:27.580 But the numbers could be higher.

00:02:30.080 But at the same time, it could actually be as low as that,

00:02:33.540 which could mean that they've been terrified of what President Trump has said,

00:02:37.760 compared to previous crackdowns where you see hundreds getting killed in a couple of days.

00:02:43.900 But people have had full control.

00:02:46.960 Obviously, people are mostly unarmed.

00:02:49.260 The regime security forces are armed.

00:02:52.660 But every evidence video that we are getting shows people chasing the regime security away.

00:02:59.540 We have had a number of defections from the police,

00:03:02.680 some from the IRGC passage units that they filmed themselves.

00:03:06.720 But I think there's a lot going on internally that is paralyzing the regime behind the scenes.

00:03:12.400 And they have struggled.

00:03:13.820 As of right now, we're doing this live.

00:03:15.900 Over the last hour, the regime have officially withdrawn the security forces and the police.

00:03:22.360 And they have officially declared war.

00:03:24.720 They have brought in the IRGC military, the actual military that would go to fight in other countries.

00:03:30.580 They are now on the ground.

00:03:31.860 And there are some videos that we will be showing on TV later.

00:03:35.280 It's also on social media.

00:03:37.380 Very, very worrying updates coming in about shootings on the ground.

00:03:42.740 And obviously, tonight is huge because the crown prince of Iran, Reza Fahlavi, is the main opposition leader.

00:03:49.500 And people are calling his name and the return of the monarchy and everything else.

00:03:53.220 He said to people, come out tonight at 8 p.m. local time, which was about two, three hours ago.

00:03:59.000 Everybody united and start chanting.

00:04:02.220 So we've had millions around the country.

00:04:04.720 And if the military have started killing people, as we've seen, things are going to get very bad tonight.

00:04:10.920 And everybody is now looking at President Trump.

00:04:14.660 I mean, it was a really brilliant summation there, Maya, because President Trump has been hypercritical of the Iranian regime and their handling of this particular crisis.

00:04:26.000 There was also an incident with a hospital, wasn't there, which was absolutely horrific.

00:04:32.020 Could you just explain to the audience watching what happened with the hospital?

00:04:36.380 So it's happened three times now over the last 12 days, three different hospitals.

00:04:41.300 This is a tactic that they've used many times.

00:04:43.800 So because, again, this is my observation, because they didn't want to be seen openly, that they're killing people on the streets.

00:04:49.460 They didn't want any evidence to be out there.

00:04:51.040 And what they do is they injure people.

00:04:55.220 So they are forced to go to the hospital.

00:04:57.260 Then they raid the hospital and start kidnapping them.

00:05:00.320 Obviously, they detain them.

00:05:02.040 And the first couple of days, they did the same thing.

00:05:05.400 There was a city in the western parts of Iran, I forgot the name, where actually the Iranian people managed to find where they were taking these people.

00:05:13.640 There was a temporary kind of jail that they created, and they went in and they actually liberated everybody.

00:05:21.280 They rescued people.

00:05:22.080 But they keep doing this.

00:05:23.960 The problem is there are also just normal patients in the hospitals when they are attacking the hospitals, which is completely chaotic.

00:05:30.300 They are alienating even some of their own, I would say minority of people who are supporting the regime, which, yeah, I mean, this is literally right now, crime against humanity.

00:05:38.040 And we're not really seeing anything from the United Nations.

00:05:42.880 And when you look at the reasons for the uprisings, why do you think they are?

00:05:49.060 Is it because of the brutality and the cruelty of the regime?

00:05:52.120 I was reading that last year, and these are the official figures, the Iranian regime killed more people than ever before.

00:06:01.380 Or is it the fact that economically, Iran has hit a point where the simple economics no longer work?

00:06:10.500 What used to be a nice middle class life simply doesn't buy you eggs, breads, the very basic essentials.

00:06:17.440 So if you ask self-appointed experts and a lot of people who actually some of them have been on your shows before and you've challenged them, people want to analyze things, right?

00:06:29.180 You know, and even the BBC would probably say economic protests.

00:06:32.300 But all I would say is don't even listen to me.

00:06:35.080 Listen to what people in Iran are saying from day one.

00:06:37.700 What have they been chanting on?

00:06:39.660 Did they come out on the streets to say we are against high inflation?

00:06:43.980 Did they even come out to protest against the president or the economic minister?

00:06:47.880 Did they talk about high taxes or lack of jobs?

00:06:50.600 No, none of those things were mentioned.

00:06:52.420 Those things are the final trigger, but they're just part of the overall package.

00:06:56.780 From day one, two chants.

00:06:58.940 One is chanting against the Islamic Republic to go away.

00:07:02.600 And secondly, for the Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi to come back to his country.

00:07:07.160 All the things that you mentioned, they are just part of the overall package of the Islamic Republic.

00:07:15.140 Everything from lack of free speech, arresting journalists to not being able to run the economy and sending the taxpayers' money to Hezbollah and Hamas. 0.82

00:07:25.020 These are just part of everything.

00:07:26.780 And it's just been building up.

00:07:28.740 People in reality have been just waiting for an opportunity, especially since the end of the 12-day war with Israel.

00:07:34.580 But they knew that at the beginning they couldn't do anything because the moment the war ended, there were checkpoints in every city.

00:07:42.800 The regime seemed in control, which is a massive surprise why from day one of this uprising, the regime immediately fell apart.

00:07:52.120 Which makes me wonder, obviously, there's a lot of behind the scenes issues.

00:07:55.440 Obviously, Mossad operatives, the Iranian community leaders and protest leaders, they've become smarter.

00:08:02.060 They've been working together, the Crown Prince's team.

00:08:04.920 This is coordinated.

00:08:06.520 Obviously, those who want to say, oh, yes, somebody's behind it.

00:08:09.740 Yes, of course.

00:08:11.000 People have been waiting for this.

00:08:12.340 People have been planning this.

00:08:13.380 They've learned from previous mistakes.

00:08:15.240 And so far, they have been winning.

00:08:17.920 It's not over yet.

00:08:18.960 As I've been saying, the regime hasn't fallen, but it is falling.

00:08:22.100 Before we ask the next question, Francis, just make sure you have the right microphone selected, please, because it sounds like you're actually coming to us live from Iran at this point.

00:08:32.760 So make sure you've got the Yeti selected, please.

00:08:35.620 Maya, you mentioned that the eyes of the world are on President Trump.

00:08:39.740 What options are actually available to him?

00:08:44.060 Like, what could the United States actually do?

00:08:46.880 And has he said anything about what might be the consequences if they continue to brutalize protesters in this way?

00:08:53.840 So a few days ago, President Trump came and gave a warning saying, if you start killing people, then obviously we'll take action.

00:09:01.660 It was just a very general threat. 0.63

00:09:05.300 Earlier today, he doubled down again and he said that we will hit them very hard if they start killing. 0.91

00:09:12.900 Obviously, there are a lot of Iranians who will tell you, well, they've already been killing because they killed about 30, 40, maybe more. 1.00

00:09:19.200 But I observe it in a different way, because if a president of the United States is about to say something like this, he doesn't mean, I know it sounds bad, but he doesn't mean if you kill 20, 30 people.

00:09:29.280 He means if you start basically, in a very uncontrollable way, start killing hundreds, which I believe tonight might be that night, unfortunately.

00:09:38.440 But in terms of actions, right now, I don't know how we can see an action directly because there are millions of people on the streets.

00:09:45.880 Not that the U.S. is going to hit residential areas, that they're not Russia.

00:09:48.900 But the two things that can be done, whether it's a partnership between the Mossad side and the U.S. to go and hunt down the leadership, and they also have some people who have allegedly defected from the top of the regime, quietly and privately.

00:10:04.640 They could do that, or they could just hit the main bases, the main government buildings and the main IRGC bases and destroy them.

00:10:12.980 I think that would just put pressure.

00:10:14.500 All you need is just put pressure for their leadership to start fleeing the country, basically.

00:10:19.080 Even though the Iranian people don't want that to happen, they want to capture the leadership.

00:10:22.860 But by doing that, you could just force them out to Moscow.

00:10:25.860 I guess what I'm wondering, though, is given that for the regime to leave at this point is completely existential.

00:10:34.320 I mean, the leaders of the regime will likely, if they leave power, be prosecuted for their many crimes against the people of Iran, etc.

00:10:43.680 Is there not a risk that effectively they really have no way out other than to continue to suppress and crack down on the protests?

00:10:53.240 But I would have said that in 2022, 2019, 2017, and even the first couple of days of this,

00:11:00.380 because I thought they were going to start doing a crackdown and at least have a level playing field.

00:11:05.280 At this point, I don't know how they can actually stay or temporarily win, because President Trump has gone all out.

00:11:18.020 So he's gone too deep now.

00:11:19.920 If, for example, there's a massacre tonight and tomorrow everyone's going to President Trump saying,

00:11:25.300 you know, you promised that, you know, you're going to do something, he's going to have to do something.

00:11:29.920 And President Trump doesn't like to lose.

00:11:31.920 If he does something, he's going to have to do all completely fully.

00:11:35.000 But they're going to have to go.

00:11:37.300 But we did receive some update from the French media that the families of the IRGC have started seeking asylum to France,

00:11:48.180 because they will be considered as civilians, I guess.

00:11:51.080 But the actual people responsible, the leadership, they can't go to any country that the future Iran could ask for extradition.

00:11:58.840 So they could probably go to Moscow.

00:12:01.500 But there are not many places left.

00:12:03.340 They can't go to Venezuela, really, because that's still on the brink.

00:12:06.740 And they can't go to Lebanon. 0.65

00:12:09.380 So the only place is also Russia. 0.83

00:12:11.440 But Russia is also in a very weird situation, as you know, because of the negotiations with Ukraine.

00:12:15.580 So I don't know.

00:12:16.580 As you said, nowhere is safe for them.

00:12:19.620 They can't go to Qatar either, because President Trump is keeping the Qataris close.

00:12:23.280 So the only way is for them to get captured.

00:12:27.420 But if not, then they're going to continue this, basically turn this into a long term civil war until somebody wins.

00:12:34.940 Well, very much with that in mind, you mentioned that tonight was a big moment,

00:12:41.880 potentially the risk of lots of violence by the regime cracking down on millions of people who are now going out into the streets.

00:12:49.400 Given that we're doing this live, what can you tell us?

00:12:51.960 I know you have family still in Iran.

00:12:55.040 What can you tell us about what's actually happening on the ground tonight?

00:12:58.760 I know that the Internet's been cut off.

00:13:00.860 The phone lines have been cut off.

00:13:02.260 So what do we know?

00:13:04.560 So, as I said, tonight was the first night that the Crown Prince gave direct instructions,

00:13:10.540 said 8 p.m., wherever you are, basically start chanting.

00:13:13.940 And so far, 11 days that we've had, people have been out.

00:13:18.400 More cities have been coming out.

00:13:20.120 Smaller groups in every city.

00:13:21.240 So a few thousand people, tens of thousands of people in every city and towns and village.

00:13:25.200 So obviously, technically, if you put them all together to come to the capital, it'll be millions.

00:13:28.420 But they've been spread around.

00:13:30.340 But tonight, before we got the update, which was about an hour ago,

00:13:34.220 that they have withdrawn the police and the security forces and they brought in the IRGC military,

00:13:40.060 every footage that we've been getting from Tehran to other smaller cities,

00:13:44.360 they are hundreds and hundreds of thousands out because everybody got re-energized.

00:13:49.320 Everybody got motivated.

00:13:50.620 They believe that President Trump is behind them.

00:13:53.920 And the Crown Prince gave them instruction and they want to show loyalty.

00:13:58.260 So they came out that they've been sending thank you messages to President Trump over the last few days.

00:14:03.420 There's some people changed their street names temporarily to Trump streets.

00:14:07.320 So basically, the morale has been high until, well, now.

00:14:11.980 But as we speak, I can't tell you what the morale is like because we're not getting any more updates.

00:14:18.120 Some people obviously have access to Starlink, thanks to Elon Musk.

00:14:21.700 So there are still videos coming out.

00:14:24.260 And the videos that we are getting is worrying because all we hear is just gunfire, massive.

00:14:29.880 But they are still out.

00:14:32.540 So the main issue about tonight is more people are out than ever before,

00:14:38.260 especially the last 11 days, 12 days.

00:14:40.780 But that could also mean a lot more people could unfortunately get killed,

00:14:46.240 which could provoke President Trump to act quicker

00:14:49.940 because they have been mobilizing their troops in the Middle East over the last couple of days.

00:14:54.340 But if people, I don't think people can concede defeat now because they've gone too deep as well.

00:15:01.860 They're going to have to stay out.

00:15:04.000 And it's their country, it's their fight, obviously.

00:15:07.000 But it could get very, very robust in the next few hours.

00:15:12.920 And tomorrow morning is going to be crucial, obviously, if they're going to come out again, which I think.

00:15:17.200 And this may feel like a strange question to you with, you know, obviously your family ties and everything.

00:15:21.800 But how confident are you that this is all for a good cause?

00:15:27.580 And I'll explain what I mean, because obviously the protesters are chanting for Reza Pahlavi.

00:15:34.000 He is one of the people who's encouraging this to be happening.

00:15:36.900 How credible of a leader is he and is he viewed as the return to the glory days of Iran pre the Islamic takeover? 0.73

00:15:47.060 Or is he seen as a kind of person we haven't seen for a very long time?

00:15:51.420 You know, is this if he was to come back, would this have been worth it, so to speak?

00:15:57.480 Yeah, if this question was happening in 2019 or like 10 years ago when we've had protests and uprisings,

00:16:04.080 and if a couple of people in the crowd would say Reza Pahlavi, I would have told you, yeah, it's just a minority.

00:16:11.240 It's, you know, it's probably and we haven't heard from him publicly speaking.

00:16:15.620 I don't think people are ready to think about monarchy, constitutional monarchy, but things have changed.

00:16:23.180 And I do believe that this has been in the works for years.

00:16:27.480 We started slowly seeing and hearing his name since 2020.

00:16:34.560 And so 2019 obviously was the Costa Living Crisis protests.

00:16:39.300 And I was surprised.

00:16:42.320 I was like, oh, I can see his name being written on the wall.

00:16:45.100 Some people are chanting.

00:16:46.520 Then it just got more and more and more.

00:16:49.420 And this year, again, just like my answer to your question earlier about, well, to Francis' question about what are these, what's the uprising for?

00:16:58.520 And I said, just listen to the people.

00:17:00.460 Right now on the streets, they are only chanting his name.

00:17:04.440 Everybody is saying Reza Pahlavi.

00:17:06.720 Nobody is saying the Mujahideen, who are a small group of communist Islamic opposition technically, but nobody takes him seriously.

00:17:14.480 But nobody is calling anybody else's name.

00:17:16.620 There is a massive unity behind one name because he's finally obviously made it clear, because obviously after a few years of waiting to see if there is appetite.

00:17:25.300 And I think there is now appetite.

00:17:26.540 And it's been led by the younger generation who weren't even alive before 1979.

00:17:32.300 And they've done their homework.

00:17:33.880 They've done their research.

00:17:34.800 And they've realized actually the best solution for the culture in Iran is constitutional monarchy as a safety net and to be able to actually have stability and democracy, parliamentary democracy.

00:17:46.620 So, the consensus is the crown prince.

00:17:51.740 And he's made it clear that, yes, I've received your call, your request.

00:17:55.840 I will be leading the revolution and I will be leading the transition government.

00:17:59.880 The idea is to avoid the power vacuum or anything like that, which won't happen in Iran because it's not Iraq or Syria. 0.86

00:18:08.040 Lead the transition government and conduct a referendum on the future constitution.

00:18:13.060 And the way it's going, it seems that if there is a question on the ballot paper about constitutional monarchy or republic or whatever else, well, based on the current feeling, constitutional monarchy would win.

00:18:26.620 But, of course, that's about the campaigns and referendums and everything else that will happen afterwards.

00:18:32.420 And what about the regional players?

00:18:35.480 We're welcoming back Francis here.

00:18:37.660 He was temporarily kidnapped by his internet.

00:18:40.240 Francis, try talking just to make sure you...

00:18:42.180 Hello, one, two, three, four.

00:18:44.580 You're a little loud, but apart from that, I think much better.

00:18:47.440 Let me ask another question while you just turn your mic down a little bit.

00:18:50.400 I can't hear it.

00:18:51.920 Oh, you can't hear him at all?

00:18:53.660 No.

00:18:54.340 The same problem happened like that.

00:18:56.040 Okay.

00:18:56.480 Well, Francis, try reconnecting then.

00:18:58.380 Okay.

00:18:58.960 We'll carry on.

00:19:00.920 Maya, so one of the things, obviously, is the regional situation.

00:19:05.860 Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and also Israel are all sworn enemies of the Islamic regime in Iran.

00:19:13.240 They are all very concerned about the direction it's been taking in recent years, their support for terrorism in the region.

00:19:20.460 These countries, historically speaking, have been natural.

00:19:23.160 Not Israel, but the Sunni and Shia divide is obviously very strong.

00:19:27.560 Is there a role, do you think, here for Gulf countries and Israel as well, in addition to President Trump and the United States?

00:19:37.680 Well, in terms of action, well, I don't think that will be necessary, but there is an opportunity here because, firstly, the Israelis, until now, until like last year, for the past four decades, five decades, they never admitted any involvement on the ground.

00:19:57.260 They never said, oh, yeah, of course, we've got Mossad doing things.

00:20:00.440 But over the last year, they've been actually boasting about it.

00:20:03.400 They've been bragging.

00:20:04.240 Yeah, we've got over 100 Mossad operators, they were doing this, we were watching everything, and they've been quite open about it now.

00:20:11.880 Everybody knew that Mossad have always been, obviously, doing disruptions in Iran over the last few decades.

00:20:18.320 But the main thing here is that Saudi Arabia, for example, is a huge rival or enemy to the Islamic Republic.

00:20:28.480 But they don't want to be seen as that sort of superpower in the region.

00:20:33.840 They have been taking a different approach.

00:20:36.440 They never want to be directly involved in any war, apart from Yemen.

00:20:40.240 But that's also so indirect, even though they're basically hitting the IRGC proxies.

00:20:44.700 They never release any statement against the Islamic Republic.

00:20:47.820 It's a very cold, cold war between those two.

00:20:50.920 Israel is the only one that is more kind of outspoken, mostly because since 1979, the Islamic Republic declared war on Israel, saying, you know, we have a bit of a problem with you.

00:21:02.360 We just need to wipe you off the map. 0.81

00:21:04.460 I mean, it's a tiny difference, obviously, in terms of opinions between the Iranian regime and Israel wiping off.

00:21:09.900 So I don't think there's any need for any sort of coalition involvement in that sense, because I think Israelis, if they do anything, that will be considered as a self-defense because they're in constant war with Iran anyway.

00:21:24.500 The Americans, well, that's the American empire. 0.60

00:21:26.880 It's the world police, whether you like it or not.

00:21:28.580 People would say, oh, boy, is America always involved?

00:21:31.060 Well, somebody has to be.

00:21:32.220 If it's not America, it's going to be China. 0.94

00:21:33.980 And the Americans have bases there.

00:21:36.020 They have interests in the Middle East.

00:21:38.080 And President Trump, at least one credit to him, is that he's unlike other presidents.

00:21:43.120 He's open about the fact that he's basically the king of the world.

00:21:46.720 He basically he will be honest.

00:21:47.960 I'm going to go in there.

00:21:48.840 I'm going to take the oil as well or I'm going to stop businesses there.

00:21:51.360 I'm going to do this.

00:21:51.980 I'm going to take over temporarily.

00:21:53.720 So that's actually quite refreshing rather than like people who say, oh, yeah, we want to be friends with the whole world.

00:21:59.800 We just have to invade that country for humanitarian reasons.

00:22:03.380 Like, just be honest.

00:22:04.620 So, but yeah, I mean, the region, there's just an opportunity for everybody, most power players to finally be on the same level playing field.

00:22:13.260 Saudi Arabia, Israel, UAE, the future Iran. 0.63

00:22:16.420 So you could actually have a peaceful Middle East, which could also help the rest of the world.

00:22:21.720 And there have been rumors.

00:22:23.420 Oh, no.

00:22:25.240 Maybe I should go out and come back in.

00:22:27.040 No, no.

00:22:29.840 We can't hear Francis, unfortunately.

00:22:31.720 Well, I was going to ask you one of the things that obviously is just mind boggling.

00:22:39.680 And we said this right at the top is, frankly, I think it's ridiculous that we've got over 10,000 people watching this.

00:22:46.220 That in itself is not ridiculous.

00:22:47.780 But my point is something else, which is tens of thousands of people are watching a live stream with, let's be, you know, generous to former comedians, Amir Francis and a YouTuber in you.

00:22:59.760 And because they're not getting this information on the mainstream media, I opened the BBC website as we were talking.

00:23:07.100 It's something about a storm.

00:23:08.800 It's this Minnesota officials talking about the FBI and the ice shooting.

00:23:15.020 The fifth most read story or the fifth most ranked story on the BBC is weight loss jabs are affecting Greggs. 0.99

00:23:21.780 And there's nothing about this issue for 12 days.

00:23:26.440 I am lacking in explanation, I think, is a very gentle way of putting it, Mike.

00:23:30.820 Yeah. So one would have said, well, maybe after the third, fourth day, they will jump on a bandwagon.

00:23:37.400 But I've realized the sickness in the media, the mainstream media, the profession as a whole, it's not necessarily even that they have some sort of like evil proactive agenda.

00:23:47.860 They have a meeting, everybody in the mainstream media is it.

00:23:50.880 This is a intellectual laziness.

00:23:53.000 So we've created the world where back in the day, and I'm literally talking about maybe 50 years ago before, probably not that long ago, journalism, including newspapers and broadcast media was about.

00:24:08.260 Essentially, they were all anti-establishment.

00:24:10.200 They would find stories themselves.

00:24:12.600 They will obviously they will do their due diligence, but they would find stories.

00:24:15.520 They will verify themselves.

00:24:17.060 We created such a structured mainstream media culture.

00:24:20.520 So in the UK, we've got the Westminster Lobby in the US, we've got the Capitol Hill guys and everybody else.

00:24:25.780 Everybody is acting the same way, which is very professional, but very controlled and lazy, which means for the BBC and CNN, they have been reporting a couple of times.

00:24:37.880 But what have they been reporting over the last 12 days?

00:24:40.400 Statements from the Islamic Republic.

00:24:42.500 So for the Iranian people, they would see it as you guys are the mouthpiece of the Islamic Republic.

00:24:47.300 But the reality is, because of the world order of the media, they would only consider, they just sit in their offices, on their computers, they would only consider official sources as states.

00:24:59.780 So the health minister in Gaza or the IRGC, they are official sources because they go to the UN, for example.

00:25:06.600 So they have selected a very limited number of official sources.

00:25:11.600 Instead of them going out to find stories like back in the day, they are just sitting back like robots and they've been told the script.

00:25:19.960 You know, it's not even just because they love the IRGC, but they're like, well, I can't verify this.

00:25:24.880 I don't have journalists on the ground.

00:25:26.620 What am I going to do?

00:25:27.300 So we're just going to report from the government in Iran.

00:25:29.220 And that is just intellectual laziness that's been created by the media class in general.

00:25:36.300 But I thought that with the rise of new media, that might wake them up.

00:25:39.840 But no, they're not waking up.

00:25:41.220 It's absolutely fascinating.

00:25:42.220 We have now open source intel.

00:25:43.660 We've got people that you can verify.

00:25:45.660 If you get something rogue from Iran, just get in touch with two or three other sources and they can verify it.

00:25:51.560 Not just one person, because that could be a rumor.

00:25:53.220 Absolutely.

00:25:54.200 But there's evidence.

00:25:55.680 Obviously, if there's something AI, you can't tell it's AI.

00:25:59.680 There are videos.

00:26:01.140 When, for example, an IRGC base, there's a building with a road sign next to it that you can see where it is.

00:26:07.220 Go on Google Earth.

00:26:08.120 Go on Google Maps.

00:26:08.840 You can check it.

00:26:09.780 And you can check the date because most of the time when Iranians are filming these videos, they say, because they're smart, they say this is Tuesday, the 6th of January, for example, at 10 p.m.

00:26:19.820 Just check everything and then hopefully look for a different video from a different angle.

00:26:24.100 And you can report it as news.

00:26:25.680 Don't wait for the Islamic Republic official sources to tell you what's going on in Iran.

00:26:29.220 Well, what's fascinating to me in this whole thing as well is we have seen with the conflict in Gaza that the BBC routinely reports stories that then turn out not to be true precisely because of the approach you described, where they will take information from the Gaza Health Ministry.

00:26:46.800 Let's be honest, not the least unbiased media source in the world, right?

00:26:51.640 And they will rush to publish it in order to get ahead of the story.

00:26:56.880 So to me that they don't have anything on this at all.

00:26:59.640 I just find that so strange.

00:27:01.120 And at this point, with the wide availability of information in the new media, it just looks it's an incredibly bad look for institutions that I don't know how you feel about it.

00:27:11.680 But I've always made the argument that we need a good BBC in this country because we want to be well informed about world events.

00:27:18.680 And the BBC has more resources than Trigonometry or Maya Tusi TV, Maya Tusi, to go after and cover this stuff is just extraordinary.

00:27:30.660 Well, yes.

00:27:31.860 So theoretically, what you always say about the BBC on paper makes sense, but there is an alternative.

00:27:37.940 And people like me have been trying to push for this now.

00:27:40.020 There's a small handful of people who do, when it comes to new media, who do news and live news.

00:27:46.600 So what I've been trying to push, and I'm trying to get hold of all the others as well around the world, is you have resources.

00:27:52.700 So you mentioned the BBC having an army of journalists.

00:27:55.060 That is true.

00:27:56.180 But there could be a hybrid.

00:27:57.920 For example, we do work on Trigonometry TV.

00:28:00.160 We do work with some Reuters journalists who obviously outsource things.

00:28:06.600 We still have to verify things and we double check everything.

00:28:09.140 But even if you're not the BBC, there are basically credible sources out there that you can still work with as a small channel to do this.

00:28:17.940 But we are working on creating, for example, an all-party parliamentary group, an APPG for new media, for news, because there's still a gatekeeping situation.

00:28:26.980 But if there is a channel that's new media but does news and is actually doing okay in terms of their balance or objectivity, you need to be allowed to be let in into Downing Street press conferences and things like that.

00:28:40.660 But that's not happening now.

00:28:43.100 It's happening in the White House, but not, for example, in the UK.

00:28:45.780 Okay. But the problem that we said, you mentioned the Gaza Health Ministry, to be objective, the same problem will happen for the BBC and CNN when they will get something from the Israeli government.

00:28:55.340 And I also have a problem with that.

00:28:58.560 Just because the Israeli government says something about some domestic issue doesn't mean it's true.

00:29:02.540 Go ask the opposition if it's true.

00:29:04.640 Because that's why some Ukrainians have a problem with the BBC, but also Russians have a problem with the BBC, because the BBC gets only the statements from the Ukrainian government and the Russian government.

00:29:14.840 They don't really cross-check.

00:29:16.420 So one minute they're the propaganda for Ukraine, next minute the propaganda machine for Russia.

00:29:20.880 They're like, just do your own journalism instead of just waiting for the press release to come to you.

00:29:25.960 Am I coming back to the issue?

00:29:27.400 One of the things we've obviously seen the last time Francis and I did a stream was just me and him talking about the events in Venezuela.

00:29:35.740 I wonder, given that we know Mossad has deep penetration into the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps,

00:29:44.900 they probably know exactly where everyone is at every moment in time.

00:29:49.340 Do you think there is a Venezuelan style scenario to be played out here where U.S. special forces go in, you know, capture several of the key people in charge?

00:30:03.540 And that is the way this ultimately gets resolved?

00:30:06.880 Well, theoretically, yes.

00:30:10.360 But with Iran, you have to take out one main person, because if you somehow capture the head of the IRGC, it won't really change much, because that's literally what Israel did. 0.85

00:30:22.520 The first day of the 12-day war, they just wiped out the whole leadership of the military and the IRGC.

00:30:26.920 That doesn't really bring it down, because it's a cult of personality.

00:30:31.320 It's like the Kim family in North Korea with Khamenei. 0.82

00:30:34.600 But on the other hand, if you take him out, that's still not finished, because then you have to take out the head of the leadership of the IRGC.

00:30:40.860 I don't see how, despite the Mossad intelligence and CIA, I mean, the Iranian regime have been very incompetent with this performance of crackdown until now. 0.98

00:30:52.360 But they're not that stupid, right? 1.00

00:30:54.460 Surely they're not that stupid. 1.00

00:30:55.680 After seeing what happened to Nicolas Maduro, they do have good tunnel networks in Iran, sort of like Gaza. 0.99

00:31:01.400 So surely they should be smart enough to move Khamenei around, because currently he's in a bunker, but we don't know which bunker. 1.00

00:31:08.800 So surely he's not as stupid as Nicolas Maduro. 0.99

00:31:10.700 Nicolas Maduro, literally nine hours before that happened, he was on a stage in public dancing, saying, come and get me. 1.00

00:31:16.440 But he was an idiot. 1.00

00:31:17.400 But I don't think Khamenei is going to make that mistake. 1.00

00:31:19.680 But they can still technically, if they want to, I believe they can still get close enough to take him out, to assassinate him.

00:31:25.980 But these are, again, just strategic decisions that, you know, people right now watching, some of the people who are against Khamenei, they say, yeah, let's do that.

00:31:33.440 But that's not really how geopolitics works, because in any moment, a decision could be the opposite.

00:31:38.500 So people were really angry at President Trump, for example, for doing the ceasefire in the 12-day war.

00:31:43.360 But there are many other reasons that that had to happen.

00:31:45.760 It wasn't just because Trump, like, saved the IRGC.

00:31:49.460 The Israeli defense was being overwhelmed and many other issues as well.

00:31:53.580 But so it's not really that black and white.

00:31:55.740 But there are many options.

00:31:56.940 I think the most obvious one is that the existing pressure, because there are sabotage operations happening, defections and everything else.

00:32:06.600 The message from Tehran was, a few days ago, that the backup plan is to send Khamenei and 20 of his inner circle, including his wife and his son, to Moscow.

00:32:17.060 So only if the uprising continues and if we notice that some or a lot of our own forces are no longer following the orders, essentially some sort of defection.

00:32:30.700 So, and by today, I can say, based on observations, that there have been a few who have been seen not to be following orders and the uprising continues.

00:32:40.620 So if tonight goes well for the people, because there seems to be a massacre right now on the ground, I think this could just finish it by itself in the next few days, hopefully.

00:32:50.360 Mike, we talked about it a little bit already, but you mentioned Russia there.

00:32:55.140 Russia has not been directly backing the Iranian regime quite in the way that it has others, in the sense that when the 12-day war was happening, Putin was basically saying, we're staying out of this one.

00:33:07.220 What is the role of Russia and China with the regime?

00:33:12.640 And has that changed due to recent events?

00:33:15.700 So this is quite interesting.

00:33:17.880 Tucker Carlson said it's going to be World War III at the time.

00:33:21.640 China will attack, Russia will attack. 0.50

00:33:23.360 I was like, how?

00:33:24.260 Why would they sacrifice everything and the world order for Khamenei, of all things? 0.98

00:33:29.640 It makes no sense.

00:33:30.580 Because the three top players, America, China, Russia, make decisions on many things, but based on who is winning, who's got the upper hand.

00:33:40.240 If Khamenei was right now strong, yeah, it might have taken the risk.

00:33:43.860 But it doesn't have the upper hand.

00:33:46.020 Putin also has the problem of negotiations over the Ukrainian situation.

00:33:49.480 So I can imagine during the last few days and the 12-day war, the White House picking up the phone to call Putin and say, don't even mention anything.

00:33:59.800 But maybe there's no need for that phone call because that will just be the Kremlin decision anyway.

00:34:04.740 But my personal theory is also the way Russia and China act on the world stage overall, except for what's happening in Ukraine, is actually psychologically because they want to counter everything that the American empire does.

00:34:18.820 And the American empire over the last few decades has been very interventionist, very open interventionist, especially now, ironically, with President Trump.

00:34:26.020 I mean, there is not really a warmonger, but he's been doing interventions.

00:34:29.060 And because they do the opposite publicly, but they basically do the same thing because people keep saying Western globalists, but I call them the Eastern globalists.

00:34:38.480 It's not like they're the saviors against globalism.

00:34:41.320 They have their own agenda.

00:34:42.100 But they don't want to be seen as like the West or NATO that, oh, we will attack, we will do this, we will take over, even though they are doing behind the scenes.

00:34:54.320 So China has been very quiet about their support for the Islamic Republic, but they still have been sending equipment and support.

00:35:00.040 Russia, Russia, earlier on, there were a couple of cargo planes that landed in Tehran.

00:35:06.220 We don't know what's in it, but there are some things in it that they still do those things, but not publicly.

00:35:12.460 They can't.

00:35:13.420 It's not in their interests.

00:35:15.340 They, especially the Chinese tactic or strategy, actually, is just wait for any sort of fallout and just play with the new players.

00:35:27.040 So it's the same with Syria.

00:35:30.140 Whether it's Assad or Al Jelani, the Chinese Communist Party would go and shake hands and say, do you want to do business with us?

00:35:36.740 Same thing will happen with Iran.

00:35:37.940 They would still try to come to Iran after the revolution to say, would you like some business contracts, for example?

00:35:43.940 They will still try to do that because they're doing this soft power influence manipulation because I think they're saving that hard power for when it's needed for Taiwan, just like Russia's Ukraine war.

00:35:57.040 But they can't afford to risk the world order over one tiny friend like the Islamic Republic. 1.00

00:36:04.820 Can't go to war with America over Iran.

00:36:06.380 That's embarrassing.

00:36:08.100 Well, Maya, I know you're a busy guy and you've got your own show to do tonight as well and lots of other things going on.

00:36:13.740 I know it's obviously a sensitive time for you personally.

00:36:16.340 I hope your family are going to be okay and I hope the people of Iran get what they want in this situation.

00:36:22.380 Really appreciate you taking the time.

00:36:23.800 Everybody should, of course, like this video, subscribe to Trigonometry and, of course, subscribe to 2CTV.

00:36:30.580 I look forward to seeing more of your coverage on this.

00:36:33.380 And as the situation develops, perhaps we'd love to have you back if there are new things to talk about.

00:36:39.080 I really appreciate your time.

00:36:40.520 Thank you guys for watching.

00:36:41.820 Make sure you subscribe if you haven't already for more content like this.

00:36:46.480 Take care, everybody.

00:36:47.360 Take care, everybody.

00:37:17.360 Princess of Wales Theatre.

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TRIGGERnometry - January 08, 2026

LIVE Iran Update with Mahyar Tousi

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