TRIGGERnometry - Military Intelligence Expert Breaks Down Russian Mindset

00:00:00.000 The biggest mistake in the Ukraine war was that it was an intelligence failure.

00:00:11.880 Hello and welcome to Trigonometry. I'm Francis Foster.

00:00:16.440 I'm Konstantin Kissin.

00:00:17.600 And this is a show for you if you want honest conversations with fascinating people.

00:00:23.340 I am so excited for the guest we have for you today.

00:00:25.940 He's a retired colonel from the Finnish Military Intelligence, now lecturer, Colonel Marty Carey.

00:00:31.720 Welcome to Trigonometry.

00:00:33.180 Okay, thank you. Nice to be here.

00:00:35.260 It is great to have you. I'll call you Mara because that's the short version of your name.

00:00:39.120 But listen, before we get started, I just wanted to say for anyone who doesn't know who you are,

00:00:42.700 we'll ask you to tell everybody your background.

00:00:45.200 I listened to a lecture that you gave about Russian culture, history and attitudes that's on YouTube.

00:00:51.800 And it was the best thing as a Russian whose father used to work in the Russian government.

00:00:57.260 Everything you said was entirely true.

00:01:00.060 It was just, I've never seen anything this good.

00:01:02.200 And the moment I watched, I said to Francis, we've got to get this guy on because he's so good.

00:01:06.680 So just for people watching this who don't know who you are, can't wait to have this conversation.

00:01:11.540 But before we do, tell everybody your background.

00:01:13.780 Who are you? What has been your journey through life?

00:01:16.260 How come you know so much about Russia, Russian culture, Russian history, etc.?

00:01:19.840 Ah, okay. Okay. So I was born quite a long time ago.

00:01:24.920 And when it became time to be, because in Finland we have an obligatory conscript service.

00:01:31.120 I went to the airborne rangers. I served as an airborne ranger as a conscript.

00:01:35.680 And I was, my plan was to become a history teacher.

00:01:40.200 But when I went to the conscript service and I was teached how to jump with the parachute in the night, at the night, how to break the railroads and blow up the bridges.

00:01:52.900 I was like, this is quite nice.

00:01:54.300 And then I applied to the cadet academy and I went to the cadet academy and I forget the history.

00:01:59.380 And then when I graduated from cadet academy because I'm quite small, they put me to the armored brigade because in that time we have Soviet tanks, T-55, BMP-1.

00:02:12.500 So I worked mainly with BMP-1.

00:02:17.280 And then in 1988 I was recruited to military intelligence because of my knowledge of my languages, language skills.

00:02:25.600 And then from 1988 until 2017 I served in our military intelligence from lieutenant to colonel.

00:02:36.720 And during that trip I mainly worked in Finland, but I was one year in Bosnia as a Finnish contingent commander because I was in that age in the beginning of 2000 that I had to have the commanding post to be promoted lieutenant colonel.

00:02:52.600 So I was one year in Bosnia as a colonel, so I was one year in Bosnia as a contingent commander.

00:02:56.780 I served three years as a defense attache in Poland and Ukraine and that's it.

00:03:05.320 So, and I retired in the end of 2017 as a colonel and I started in the beginning of 2018 as a university teacher in Jyväskylä, quite difficult to pronounce, Jyväskylä University.

00:03:20.420 And I teach here now intelligence analysis and also hybrid threats.

00:03:28.300 So that's in a nutshell what I have done.

00:03:33.100 And Mara, it always seems to me that the best way to start an interview is to go very broad.

00:03:39.800 And it seems to me that one of the great arrogances about the West is that we think everybody thinks like us.

00:03:47.160 And we think that the whole world shares the same mentality.

00:03:50.980 But it's proven time and time again, particularly in this case, the Russians and Russia doesn't think like us. 0.99

00:03:59.440 So let's just look at the big differences between the West and the Russian mentality.

00:04:05.480 Ah, that's a huge question.

00:04:09.560 Now, let's say let's let's approach that question in that way that, OK, when I was little and I was sending to Leningrad, Leningrad to study Russian language.

00:04:22.220 I was there and I make friends with the Russians and I was thinking why they are why they see the world from the very different angle than I do.

00:04:34.680 And I was wondering why, why, why, why?

00:04:36.060 And it was bothering me and it was bothering me and I understood that, OK, there is something why they are thinking different way.

00:04:46.180 And not until I start my PhD in 2017 and I found a theory of strategic culture, which are American theory of international politics.

00:05:00.140 And it was like, you know, I in that moment when I found that theory of strategic culture, I realized that, OK, that's the theory by which I can explain why the Russians are doing the different things in a different way than we are.

00:05:19.100 So so what but the question, what are the biggest differences?

00:05:26.200 That's that's that's quite challenging.

00:05:28.560 But, OK, let's say let's say that, OK, for example, that your attitude to the power.

00:05:38.780 So so we are living in democracy.

00:05:42.140 We are electing our leaders every fourth year in Finland and president every sixth year.

00:05:48.440 And that's that's our system.

00:05:50.280 So we have get used that, OK, we can we can change our leaders and so on.

00:05:54.900 But the Russians, they have they don't have had a system that they can choose their leaders because they had first they have charge, then they have the Communist Party.

00:06:04.480 And now when when they have Putin, they have had not real possibilities to have elections and choose the leaders.

00:06:13.740 So I think I think the first thing is the relationship between the power and the people.

00:06:20.500 So second difference from what I think is that I speak at the behalf of Finns or Europeans, we have.

00:06:31.780 Finland is like a country of of of of of when you speak about legacy.

00:06:40.640 And we are a country, rule, rule of law, rule of law country.

00:06:48.440 It means that we have laws which protect us from from the authorities that they can't behave as they want.

00:06:59.300 They had to, you know, behave with us in a way that they they they they protect us.

00:07:04.940 They they they they behave decently when they are working with us and we know what we can do, what what is lawful, what is unlawful and what is the punishment if we break the law.

00:07:18.140 But I think that Russia is rule by law, it means that they have laws, but the meaning of the laws is that the leaders can rule the people, rule the system by legislation.

00:07:37.100 So they have laws, but they have laws, but they can, for example, if we think about the Internet, Russian segment of Internet.

00:07:45.600 They have a lot of laws which limit the users possibilities, you know, to find the information and so on and so on.

00:07:55.940 They say that, OK, this is for they protect people from pornography or from the things which can can help you to make suicide, for example, or they say that, OK, they protect people against extremism.

00:08:14.620 But what what they do, they can they can they can close down, for example, opposite pages, now only pages, for those pages, you know, saying, OK, this is extremist.

00:08:26.660 And it's it's it's from the point of view, it's it's legal because it's it's it's rule by law country.

00:08:36.140 Do you understand what I am?

00:08:37.760 Absolutely.

00:08:38.160 That's the other one, the approach to the power, the status of law in the system.

00:08:51.840 That's true.

00:08:52.500 And I think also the attitude against the attitude to violence, for example, because they have they have long, long tradition of state terror, for example.

00:09:07.420 Even the great even the great even the great established the original system, which means that that the leader can use violence against the people who are around him.

00:09:21.520 And to the normal people, very flexible.

00:09:25.240 So there is no there is no legal limitations to that, how he can use his his power, for example, our president cannot send our special service people to some other country to poison a person.

00:09:43.980 But in Russia, it's possible.

00:09:46.900 So I mean that the approach to the use of violence, it's different than we have, than they have.

00:09:55.140 So I think those those are the three things which came to my mind immediately.

00:09:59.560 And in your lecture, you talk a lot about history.

00:10:03.180 And one of the things I loved about it was very nonjudgmental.

00:10:05.880 You describe how Russians think without saying they are worse than us or better than us or we are better and they're worse or anything like that, which I thought was easier to hear for people.

00:10:15.680 So, um, and yes, I'm sorry, because I like, you know, I, I, I master in arts in Russian language and literature.

00:10:25.740 I like, I like the language, it's the language of Tolstoy, Dostoyevsky, Vladimir Wisotsky.

00:10:33.240 So I, I like the language.

00:10:34.680 I like the people.

00:10:35.700 I don't have anything against Russian people.

00:10:37.400 I have Russian friends.

00:10:38.180 So when I speak Russia, I don't mean Russian people, normal, ordinary Russian people. 0.98

00:10:44.500 I mean, the leadership.

00:10:47.040 Yeah, of course.

00:10:48.840 And, and so talking about the leadership, one of the things you point out is that, is that because of Russian history, whether it was the Mongol occupation being occupied by the Mongols for 150 years, or some of the Tsars that came afterwards or the communist regimes, uh, after that, uh, Russia has always had

00:11:07.340 a strong leader and, uh, one of the things I always tell people in the West that they don't understand is, uh, Stalin, who killed 20 million or more of his own people, has a 70% approval rating in Russia today.

00:11:21.260 Why?

00:11:24.080 Because I think, I think the Russians, they have get used to strong, strong leader.

00:11:30.640 They have had periods in their history.

00:11:35.140 They get, it's, it's called smooth, smooth, noe vriemia.

00:11:38.260 How do you say it in English?

00:11:39.460 Times of trouble.

00:11:40.580 Times of trouble.

00:11:41.060 Yeah, times of trouble.

00:11:42.020 They, in, in, in, in end of 16th century, for example, they had times of trouble when they didn't have a strong leader.

00:11:50.320 The Poles attack and there was, you know, internal revolts and things like that.

00:11:55.840 People, a lot of people get killed and there was no good, good coordination of, of leadership and so on.

00:12:05.460 So in that time, Russians realized that it's better to have a, a strong leader than a chaos and, you know, the, the, the, the Poles attacking and things like that.

00:12:17.620 And, and, and second time they realized that when Yeltsin became power and became that, that democracy or how to say it is, it is not a democracy in that point of view.

00:12:29.840 From our point of view, it's like a, let's say criminal democracy or, or something like that.

00:12:35.680 So the Russians prefer strong leader because they, the strong leader can have a stability.

00:12:43.140 They, they like stability.

00:12:45.860 We all like stability.

00:12:47.320 We built, in Finland, we built our stability through the democracy.

00:12:52.020 And, and the Russians are building up the, the stability by a strong leader.

00:12:57.380 And Mara, do you think that has a lot to do with geography?

00:13:00.420 When you see Russia on the map, it's huge.

00:13:03.040 Yeah, it's huge, yeah.

00:13:04.680 And so you really do not need somebody who's that strong to hold all those different places together, all those, all that vast amounts of land together.

00:13:14.820 Because if you have someone who perhaps is more liberal, more democratic, then what you're going to get is infighting.

00:13:21.420 People want breakaway group, breakaway republics, et cetera.

00:13:24.800 You're right, yeah.

00:13:25.600 Yeah.

00:13:26.420 That the balkanization might happen if you don't have a strong leader.

00:13:29.880 Yeah, you are right.

00:13:30.720 That's right.

00:13:31.200 And what, you mentioned Boris Yeltsin.

00:13:35.040 That was really the only time when Russia flirted with a pro-democratic move.

00:13:40.400 It hadn't really happened in history.

00:13:42.300 And what a lot of people in the West don't realize is Russians' attitudes to democracy and what Russians think of when they think about democracy.

00:13:49.660 Can you talk a little bit about what the 90s meant for, for Russian mentality and why Vladimir Putin ended up being who he is?

00:13:57.140 I think it, it, it started well.

00:13:59.660 Oh, it started well, became, you know, the, I think it started during, during Carpaccio, Perestroika and, and, and Glasnost and things like that.

00:14:08.840 People were, I, I was 1986 in, in, in Leningrad and it was time when the Perestroika started and Glasnost started. 0.91

00:14:16.120 People were quite, you know, that people were quite, you know, enthusiastic that, okay, now something better will come.

00:14:21.960 They believed that, okay, now the life will be better.

00:14:24.720 And, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and people lost everything what they had.

00:14:49.040 And, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and that was the time when the people get the impression that this is democracy.

00:15:07.740 This is democracy and then, and then, then in, in the new year, 1999, 2000, became a strong leader.

00:15:15.660 He was not in that time.

00:15:16.700 He was not yet a strong leader, but became a different leader.

00:15:20.460 And the 1990s was behind and people start to believe that, okay, this might be a new start again.

00:15:28.000 And the oil price went like that.

00:15:30.160 It means that the new president had a lot of economic power, you know, people somehow connected the economical growth with the president who, in fact, had nothing to do with the oil price.

00:15:49.840 But anyhow, it, it happened in that way that the oil price went up and somebody, somebody people told that, okay, this is because Putin is now president.

00:15:57.720 And our life is getting better and better and better.

00:16:01.020 But Mahra, he has been in some ways quite a good president.

00:16:05.800 Most Western countries are in horrendous amounts of debt.

00:16:09.000 As far as I know, Russia is in no debt or very little debt at the moment.

00:16:12.380 Yeah, you are right.

00:16:12.940 That might change because of the war.

00:16:15.520 Yes, you are right.

00:16:16.820 Because they, they, they sell oil, they sell gas.

00:16:20.160 They get a lot of incomes from oil and gas.

00:16:22.960 So it has helped him a lot.

00:16:24.700 And they have, they have been quite wise because they haven't spent all the money.

00:16:31.560 They have put a lot of money in the reserves and they have a lot of money in reserves and they don't have debt, as you said.

00:16:38.500 So the economy, economical policy, policy has been quite wise.

00:16:43.700 Because one of the things we tend to misinterpret about Russia is corruption.

00:16:50.400 We say that the society is corrupt, the government is corrupt.

00:16:54.560 And of course it is.

00:16:55.800 But it's corrupt in a very different way than the corruption that you will see in the United Kingdom and the United States.

00:17:01.920 Could you explain that to us, please?

00:17:04.480 It goes, if you read Mark Kaleotis' book about mafia, it explains a lot how it works.

00:17:14.080 It works in that way that if you achieve some position in administration, you have right to saw, they say saw, one part of the state money to yourself.

00:17:30.660 So you can steal one part of the government money to yourself.

00:17:37.160 And if you are in a low level in administration or system, you can steal small portion.

00:17:44.660 When you get upper, you can steal more and more and more.

00:17:48.240 And when you get high, you can steal tens of millions of dollars in a year.

00:17:53.840 And everybody knows the rules.

00:17:56.980 So the rule goes in that way, that don't steal too much.

00:18:02.300 Don't steal from the wrong guy.

00:18:05.740 Don't steal from the wrong guy because then you're in trouble.

00:18:09.440 So everybody knows, here's the rules.

00:18:12.800 Let's play according to these rules.

00:18:15.100 Don't break the rules.

00:18:15.960 And of course, we in the West are hypocritical, particularly in London, because the moment all of this corrupt money flooded into the city of London, under Blair's government, we went right ahead.

00:18:27.180 All the doors are open.

00:18:28.900 Yeah, you were lucky.

00:18:30.600 They passed Helsinki.

00:18:32.280 They passed Helsinki.

00:18:33.740 We have just a few of them.

00:18:35.160 So, yeah.

00:18:35.400 Hey, Francis, would you like to learn another language?

00:18:40.560 No, mate.

00:18:41.240 Already know foreign languages perfectly.

00:18:44.320 Oi, Gary.

00:18:45.420 Who is the biblioteca?

00:18:47.820 You can't go on holiday, mate, without knowing where the swimming pool is. 1.00

00:18:51.660 The biblioteca is the library, you idiot. 1.00

00:18:54.240 Exactly. 1.00

00:18:54.760 You can never be too far away from knowledge and sexually frustrated librarians.

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00:20:18.680 I use Babbel, and look at me now.

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00:20:28.620 Colonel, one of the things particularly you talked about in your lecture as well is why Russia, at a sort of instinctive level, is very fearful of invasion, Western expansion.

00:20:43.600 It's fearful of, it perceives itself as being surrounded and under threat.

00:20:49.460 Can you talk a little bit about that?

00:20:50.800 Because I think as we move the conversation into the current situation, that will help us understand some of the thinking behind the actions.

00:20:58.580 Oh, you mentioned about the huge, it's a huge country.

00:21:03.640 It means that they have a lot of borders and a lot of different invaders have attacked Russia.

00:21:12.200 Mongols came, they were there 200 years. 1.00

00:21:15.380 Then came Swedes, Swedes and Finns, because we have always been with Swedes.

00:21:22.520 Wherever they go, we go up with them, because we were part of Sweden 700 years.

00:21:28.540 They used to use Finns, you know, for the military purposes. 0.99

00:21:31.900 We have a saying that the brave, brave Swedish king fight until the last Finn.

00:21:41.680 It's a Finnish joke. 0.98

00:21:42.960 Okay.

00:21:43.720 But anyhow, we attacked, we attacked.

00:21:46.920 And then Napoleon, Poles, many times Poles. 0.91

00:21:50.860 So the Russians have in their history, in their family narratives, there is a story about attacks. 0.87

00:22:03.160 The Germans attack in two world wars, they attack. 0.83

00:22:07.120 And now NATO is, according to the stories, they are planning to attack Russia.

00:22:12.380 So that's a huge, huge country.

00:22:16.720 And if you think about the area from the west borders of Poland and Ukraine, and you look to the Moscow, there is nothing.

00:22:28.680 It's a plain.

00:22:29.720 It's a plain.

00:22:30.860 There is no, you know, rivers, a little bit of rivers, but there is no real obstacles like mountains or seas or whatever.

00:22:39.260 So it's easy to attack by horses, by tanks and whatever you use when you attack.

00:22:44.540 So it has created a feel of being attacked, like they called, or somebody called it, Barbarossa syndrome.

00:22:56.280 You know, it means that when the Nazis attacked 1941 to Russia, it was called Operation Barbarossa.

00:23:03.800 So they called that Russians have a Barbarossa syndrome.

00:23:06.960 It means that somebody will make a surprise attack again to Russia.

00:23:11.820 And you also explained that it benefits the leader of the country to create this perception of threat because then he can unite the people and say only a strong leader like me can protect you.

00:23:28.640 So, yes, yes, let's say that way, that 30% is family stories, narratives, 70% is leadership is telling, okay, okay, that NATO is planning to attack us again, or the west is planning to attack us again.

00:23:46.520 So it's like, how do you say it in English, you are collecting under the flag, around the flag pool, or how do you say it in English?

00:23:54.440 Clock to the banner, if you have a clock to the banner.

00:23:57.060 Yeah, so it's all the leaders all around are using that also in Russia.

00:24:02.720 Isn't it also a problem as well that essentially Putin is surrounded by yes-men? 0.93

00:24:12.340 You're not going to have somebody who disagrees with Putin or stands up to him, because if you do that, you're...

00:24:19.720 Or am I being facetious?

00:24:22.120 You know, at old time, they have a system called boyars, who were noble people who were surrounding the char, and there was, you know, the administrative boyars, there was military boyars, and they were serving the char, and char was giving them, you know, the land and money for the good service.

00:24:46.340 But if he suspected that you are not behaving well, or if he suspected that you are planning a coup, for example, or the revolt or whatever, you might lose your head.

00:24:59.840 As I told you about even the terrible, he created the system called Oprich, and it's like a KGB, a KGB of 16th century. 0.82

00:25:12.160 And he used that KGB, very, very flexible, and that time they lost their head.

00:25:21.640 And in Stalin time, yes, also there was neck shots and things like that.

00:25:27.140 Nowadays, you will be transferred to the, you will be head of the railway administration or the governor of Kaliningrad, but they don't shoot any more people.

00:25:39.740 But anyhow, if the char is not satisfied for your services, as a boyar, you will be transferred to the lower post.

00:25:48.880 Ivanov, for example, is taking care of the, I don't remember, he is now in a position where he takes care of environment, and he used to be in a very high position.

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00:26:32.160 But isn't that a problem?

00:26:33.900 Because what that creates is a uniformity of thought.

00:26:37.060 And it also means that bad ideas don't get challenged, particularly Putin's bad ideas.

00:26:42.180 So currently they're at war.

00:26:43.960 I mean, will any general go to Putin and go, look, I think we've made a mistake here because we've got massive amounts of casualties.

00:26:51.240 And in this part of the country, the Ukrainians are winning.

00:26:54.260 Yeah, I think because I teach intelligence in university.

00:26:59.820 And the task of intelligence is to provide objective information to decision making.

00:27:06.860 So intelligence is providing objective information to decision makers.

00:27:14.100 And then we have decision makers who make decisions based on the information given by intelligence and given by other people, like operative people and so on.

00:27:26.060 But in Russia, the problem is that it's mixed because around Putin, there is Naryshkin and Bortnikov, who are Intel guys.

00:27:37.640 So they are in the inner circle.

00:27:40.220 They are those guys who are also making the decisions.

00:27:44.380 So the idea of use of intelligence doesn't work there because the intelligence doesn't provide objective information to the decision makers because part of the decision makers are Intel people.

00:28:01.600 Do you understand what I'm trying to explain?

00:28:02.980 Yes, yeah.

00:28:03.180 No, there is no, there is no division.

00:28:05.940 There should be a division.

00:28:07.860 Intel guys provide Intel.

00:28:11.100 Decision makers make decisions.

00:28:13.740 But there, Intel guys are decision makers.

00:28:17.000 So it twist that decision making process, as you say, that it might cause that they are yes men.

00:28:26.040 And when the subordinators who are providing the information, making the reports or making the collection, they know what the boss want to hear.

00:28:35.900 I mean, not the highest boss, but their boss, Bortnikov or Naryshkin, they make the reports according to the expected vices of the boss of that particular service.

00:28:52.820 And it viced also the system.

00:28:54.240 So it's, I think the one of the biggest mistakes in the Ukraine war was that it was intelligence failure.

00:29:05.920 It was intelligence failure.

00:29:07.940 I have analyzed that and I think it was intelligence failure.

00:29:12.560 Well, let's explore that, Mara.

00:29:14.020 What do you mean by that?

00:29:16.220 I mean that, okay, if you think about the intelligence cycle, we have collection, we have analysis, we have delivery or reporting.

00:29:24.680 And then idea is that you collect data, you analyze data and make the data to intelligence.

00:29:33.400 You provide that intelligence in reports to your customer and it should cause wisdom.

00:29:41.100 It should cause knowledge.

00:29:44.060 And in best case, it should cause wisdom in the head of the decision maker.

00:29:49.480 From data to wisdom, it's quite challenging job, but it works if you are objective, honest and so on.

00:30:00.120 But if you have three services as they have, you know, foreign service, foreign intel, FSB and military intelligence, you have three services who are competing.

00:30:13.760 Who are competing for the resources and the money, for example.

00:30:23.980 So they think that, okay, my boss wants to hear this kind of reporting.

00:30:30.200 So they provide probably a wrong reporting because they think that, okay, if I tell bad news, he don't like me, I will not get resources.

00:30:39.640 And that's why it might, as Stalin did, of course, he didn't believe the intel, which was provided by Richard Sorge.

00:30:50.080 Richard Sorge was the best, best operative, operative officer in Tokyo.

00:30:58.680 He sent it that, okay, the Germans will attack in the mid of June 1941.

00:31:04.700 Stalin didn't believe that because he has his own ideas.

00:31:10.240 He has his own indicators, which he was following.

00:31:14.480 And other people were telling, you know, that no, the Germans will not attack because they know that Stalin want to hear that, okay, the Germans will not attack.

00:31:22.420 This is the same system in now, I think.

00:31:24.760 But Putin didn't believe those who told that, okay, we should not attack Ukraine.

00:31:32.580 He believed those guys who said, okay, we can attack Ukraine because it goes easy as it went in 2014 in Crimea, for example.

00:31:40.920 I haven't been there, but I have analyzed that that might be one reason why this all happened.

00:31:47.840 Well, Colonel, this is the question that I think a lot of people suddenly wanted to know the answer to.

00:31:52.320 Why did Vladimir Putin invade Ukraine?

00:31:55.900 Some people say, as we talked about earlier, that it's the threat of NATO expansion.

00:32:01.560 He cannot allow NATO in Ukraine.

00:32:03.880 Other people say, well, he's been talking.

00:32:06.140 We had a former advisor to Vladimir Putin on our show called Andrei Ilarionov,

00:32:10.680 who talked about how since the moment he came to power, Putin was talking about,

00:32:15.220 we want to go back to 1997, when no Eastern European countries were in NATO.

00:32:21.400 Basically, he longs to recreate the Soviet Union.

00:32:25.520 What's the truth?

00:32:26.260 Why did he invade?

00:32:27.780 I think those both are right.

00:32:29.500 But I think one reason is that they fear about the color revolutions.

00:32:33.900 Because the system, as I told you, if you get the position in the system,

00:32:41.360 you get the high position in the system, you have access to the money.

00:32:47.780 You have access to money, and you can saw money as much as your people in your level,

00:33:00.440 in your administrative, admin, can saw.

00:33:04.620 If you are high, you can steal a lot of money.

00:33:07.560 If you are lower, you can steal not so much money as the guys who are up there.

00:33:12.820 But anyhow, you can steal.

00:33:14.160 So, and if you have a system that, okay, we vote our leaders every fourth year,

00:33:21.220 it might happen that you will be not in a position anymore where you can steal.

00:33:25.960 So, the color revolutions is a threat for the system,

00:33:31.760 where is the inbuilt corruption, like in Russian administration.

00:33:38.720 And that's why they are afraid of the color revolutions.

00:33:44.140 I think that's one reason.

00:33:45.520 And what happened in Ukraine, in Maidan, 2014, it was a color revolution.

00:33:52.380 And they were afraid that it will spread also to Russia.

00:33:55.920 It happened, it almost happened in Belarus.

00:34:00.380 The Russians went in. 0.98

00:34:01.240 It almost happened in Kazakhstan.

00:34:05.260 The Russians went in. 0.98

00:34:06.800 And so on.

00:34:07.200 So, they are trying to put down all the possible color revolutions,

00:34:12.460 which are, you know, might rise in the neighborhood.

00:34:17.740 In Ukraine, they didn't manage.

00:34:21.500 And that is one reason why they attacked.

00:34:23.180 Of course, they are, you know, that all the Slavs are one people and NATO expansion.

00:34:30.520 We had to put the buffer zone, which we have lost when the Soviet Union break down and things like that.

00:34:36.080 But I think one reason is that system that you had to protect that kleptocratic system 0.58

00:34:42.600 and not let the color revolutions come in to Russia.

00:34:46.760 So, the people at the top, they fear a change of system because it means they will no longer have the power

00:34:52.720 and the opportunity to profit from having the power.

00:34:56.960 Yeah, I think that's one reason, yes.

00:34:59.300 That makes sense.

00:35:00.520 But why now?

00:35:01.720 They tried in 2014.

00:35:03.800 They took Crimea. 0.81

00:35:05.580 They started a small local civil war in the east of Ukraine.

00:35:09.420 Why did they attack now in 2022?

00:35:11.660 What was the reason to do it now?

00:35:13.400 I think one reason was that they tried to solve the question of Donbass.

00:35:20.820 And they tried to solve the Donbass question.

00:35:25.920 And because there was a change of president of the United States,

00:35:30.760 they thought that, okay, he might be not so strong.

00:35:33.120 We can now, you know, try something.

00:35:36.060 Another thing was that they saw that Zelensky was fighting against pro-Russian actors in Ukraine.

00:35:51.040 For example, he was Medvedchuk.

00:35:52.860 Television channels were closed a year ago in February, January, February.

00:35:56.960 So Zelensky was...

00:35:59.400 Colonel, I'm sorry to interrupt.

00:36:00.720 Just for people who don't know, Medvedchuk is the leader of a pro-Russian party

00:36:04.480 whose, I think, daughter's godfather is Vladimir Putin.

00:36:09.200 So this is very much pro-Russian guy in Ukraine

00:36:13.020 who was actively working against President Zelensky.

00:36:16.140 And Zelensky shut down his TV channel.

00:36:18.300 So Medvedchuk was, you know, making a huge information warfare, information campaigns

00:36:26.260 pro-Russia in Ukraine.

00:36:29.580 And Zelensky closed that possibility.

00:36:33.280 And change of president, United States.

00:36:37.040 And also, you know, I think the Donbass,

00:36:42.580 to take care of Donbass, it's caused a lot.

00:36:46.000 So I think they also thought that they had somehow solved the problem with Donbass.

00:36:50.960 I mean, the rebel areas.

00:36:53.920 And if you put all these together,

00:36:56.780 you come to the conclusion that, okay, it's time to attack.

00:37:01.700 Because I think when they concentrate the forces in the beginning,

00:37:08.340 in the end of last year,

00:37:09.860 I thought that the idea is to put the pressure to Kiev,

00:37:14.300 to put the pressure on Zelensky,

00:37:16.720 that he would accept open the negotiations on Minsk 2 agreement.

00:37:26.020 But when Macron went to Moscow and Stoltz went to Moscow,

00:37:31.780 they came from there to Kiev and back at their home.

00:37:36.780 And there was no discussions about the opening of Minsk 2 agreement.

00:37:44.260 Then I realized, okay, this is not the exercise they will attack.

00:37:48.680 But I think they will, I thought they will not attack so deep,

00:37:52.900 so deep targets as they did.

00:37:55.800 Because they had only 190,000 troops and the Ukrainians had,

00:38:03.900 they can mobilize 200,000 troops.

00:38:06.600 So I think that's miscalculation because you had to have three times

00:38:11.860 so much forces as a defender.

00:38:14.240 So I think that they make, you know,

00:38:17.480 just they might take to Kharkov

00:38:19.360 and they take to Khovka Reservoir

00:38:22.660 because they need that water to Crimea, for example.

00:38:26.560 So, but this surprised me that they are attacking

00:38:29.360 from four different directions.

00:38:33.560 No center of gravity of the attack.

00:38:37.260 And no, I don't know.

00:38:38.840 We come back to your point about poor intelligence

00:38:40.960 and not being given the right information.

00:38:43.820 Francis, let me just finish on this point.

00:38:45.860 Could this have been prevented, Colonel?

00:38:50.840 You mean the Russian attack?

00:38:52.780 Yes.

00:38:58.360 No.

00:39:00.260 No.

00:39:00.920 Yes, yes.

00:39:01.740 If they would have opened negotiations about Minsk 2,

00:39:09.160 that might have been a solution.

00:39:12.740 That might have prevented the war.

00:39:15.760 What if Ukraine said, we're never joining NATO?

00:39:21.120 That might also, that might also have been, you know,

00:39:24.860 the solution.

00:39:26.460 Yes, yes, you are right.

00:39:30.500 Interesting.

00:39:31.740 Mehra, we've been talking and corruption, about corruption.

00:39:36.780 Now, this obviously wasn't a primary motivator,

00:39:40.860 but it might have been a secondary motivator.

00:39:42.780 We're talking about people whose motivations

00:39:46.260 for progressing up the ladder are, as you said,

00:39:49.940 soaring off a bit for themselves.

00:39:51.860 The higher up the ladder you go, the more you can soar off.

00:39:54.920 Now, they might advise Vladimir Putin to invade

00:39:59.240 because if they think, hang on,

00:40:00.860 the war isn't going to last for very long,

00:40:02.920 we'll take over all of this part of Ukraine, 0.98

00:40:05.100 we'll have all of these resources,

00:40:07.820 that means, inevitably, some of that will go to me.

00:40:11.540 Some of these natural resources will go to me.

00:40:13.760 Could that have been a motivator as well,

00:40:15.740 people acting in their own self-interest?

00:40:18.680 That might be also,

00:40:20.060 but I think that has not been the main driver.

00:40:26.780 Okay.

00:40:27.380 And people talk a lot about the fact that Ukraine is quite,

00:40:30.900 is it quite rich in gas,

00:40:32.220 and that could have been a factor as well

00:40:35.540 because then that undermines a Russian position

00:40:37.740 because Russia provides much of Europe,

00:40:40.080 in particular Germany, with gas?

00:40:42.680 No, I think that the Russian has gas enough.

00:40:46.860 The Russian have oil enough. 1.00

00:40:49.760 I think the Ukraine as an oil provider or gas provider

00:40:54.460 is not so vital to Russia.

00:40:57.340 What Ukraine provides is wheat, for example,

00:41:01.620 and things like that.

00:41:04.080 But I think the economical reason is not the main,

00:41:09.020 it's not even the second important reason to attack.

00:41:15.320 I think, yeah.

00:41:18.440 And Colonel, what does all of this mean

00:41:20.740 for the standoff which we now have

00:41:23.160 between NATO and Russia?

00:41:24.560 Because people who understand the geography

00:41:28.080 of Eastern Europe, as you do,

00:41:30.420 know that Kaliningrad, for example,

00:41:32.220 is a piece of Russia that is disconnected 0.58

00:41:34.080 from the main body of Russia

00:41:36.500 by Latvia and Lithuania.

00:41:39.700 And these are countries that are now part of NATO.

00:41:42.020 So given that part of the national mentality

00:41:46.920 is about making sure you're safe

00:41:48.860 and part of it is about expanding borders,

00:41:51.880 bringing the Russian people under one umbrella, 0.98

00:41:54.720 controlling the buffer zone of Eastern Europe,

00:41:57.280 do you think, as Andrei Larionov told us,

00:42:00.320 for example, that Putin wants to keep going?

00:42:02.580 Now, obviously, the troops haven't done as well

00:42:05.300 as he hoped and it's been a big failure.

00:42:07.600 I think that's certainly how people see it

00:42:09.160 in the Kremlin at the moment.

00:42:10.700 Do you think he has ambition to go further?

00:42:15.060 You mean to open the door,

00:42:16.740 to open the corridor to Kaliningrad?

00:42:19.920 And more, and more, to go further than Ukraine.

00:42:24.040 No, I think now they don't have power

00:42:26.120 because they have lost a lot of men,

00:42:29.660 a lot of techniques in Ukraine.

00:42:33.720 So they had to, you know, to take the breath

00:42:36.480 before they can do anything else.

00:42:40.120 Will they do?

00:42:41.040 I think that Ukraine has taught them a lesson

00:42:47.980 so they think twice if they go somewhere else.

00:42:54.020 Yes, but what I'm asking you is,

00:42:56.760 imagine Ukraine had gone very well for Russia.

00:43:00.120 They come in, they take half the country, 0.97

00:43:02.760 no problem, Ukrainians surrender,

00:43:04.860 like they did in 2014.

00:43:07.000 Would they then keep going?

00:43:08.540 Or is it just about Ukraine?

00:43:10.720 No, I think it might have,

00:43:12.220 would have been like that you described.

00:43:14.840 They would have keep going?

00:43:17.020 Yeah, they might,

00:43:18.240 they might have to keep being going, yes.

00:43:22.360 Yeah.

00:43:23.460 Why?

00:43:24.080 Why would they keep going?

00:43:25.340 Explain to our viewers why.

00:43:26.460 Because they have an idea that,

00:43:28.280 okay, to protect Mother Russia, 0.68

00:43:30.620 you had to have buffer zones.

00:43:32.420 You had to have,

00:43:33.760 so in old time,

00:43:34.760 they had Warsaw Pact,

00:43:36.000 all the Eastern Bloc countries,

00:43:37.180 and then you had the second,

00:43:38.660 second line of defense was Baltic States,

00:43:41.820 Belarus, Ukraine,

00:43:43.260 and so on.

00:43:44.580 So you had two buffer,

00:43:47.200 two zones of defense

00:43:49.020 before the Mother Russia,

00:43:50.460 Mother Russia was, 0.81

00:43:51.640 you know,

00:43:52.280 under the attack.

00:43:53.560 So probably they would had

00:43:55.340 somehow expand

00:43:57.900 the buffer zone

00:44:00.580 further on.

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00:45:43.540 Mara,

00:45:44.240 why is it that

00:45:45.540 the majority of Russians

00:45:47.860 are pro-Putin?

00:45:49.680 They're very supportive

00:45:50.640 of Putin.

00:45:51.960 And in particular

00:45:53.080 during the war,

00:45:54.240 surely they should have,

00:45:55.640 would they not have seen,

00:45:56.820 you know,

00:45:57.460 their own country

00:45:58.300 as an aggressor?

00:46:00.380 But, you know,

00:46:01.080 they are in

00:46:02.060 an information vacuum.

00:46:03.900 They are in

00:46:04.660 information vacuum.

00:46:05.760 They, in 2019,

00:46:07.040 they had law

00:46:07.780 which said that

00:46:08.660 they,

00:46:09.180 Russia had to have 0.98

00:46:10.020 capabilities

00:46:10.860 to isolate

00:46:12.640 the Russian segment

00:46:13.860 of internet

00:46:14.740 from the global internet.

00:46:16.760 And,

00:46:16.900 and now they have

00:46:17.900 capabilities

00:46:18.500 to isolate

00:46:21.180 the Russian segment.

00:46:22.640 they haven't done

00:46:25.420 that yet.

00:46:25.780 They have not

00:46:26.300 isolated that

00:46:27.220 they segment yet,

00:46:28.160 but they have

00:46:28.540 capabilities.

00:46:29.240 But what they have

00:46:29.840 done,

00:46:30.900 they have

00:46:31.480 isolated

00:46:32.220 the mentality

00:46:33.680 or the

00:46:34.400 information

00:46:35.100 of,

00:46:37.280 of Russian people

00:46:38.120 from the,

00:46:39.020 from the

00:46:39.400 information

00:46:39.940 of the West.

00:46:41.140 So,

00:46:41.760 so they have

00:46:42.840 closed all

00:46:43.880 the

00:46:44.440 non-official

00:46:45.680 channels,

00:46:46.680 dust,

00:46:47.460 television channel,

00:46:48.480 dust,

00:46:48.860 closed down,

00:46:49.640 and,

00:46:50.040 and,

00:46:50.380 and,

00:46:50.740 and Novia Gazeta

00:46:52.140 was closed.

00:46:54.780 Ehomasqueer radio

00:46:55.800 channel was closed

00:46:57.140 because they have

00:46:58.060 a law.

00:46:58.520 They just,

00:46:59.540 less than a month

00:47:00.780 ago,

00:47:01.080 they,

00:47:01.260 they accepted

00:47:02.560 the law

00:47:03.000 that if you

00:47:03.640 speak not

00:47:05.000 the,

00:47:06.200 the official

00:47:06.760 truth,

00:47:07.300 you might get

00:47:08.100 even 15 years

00:47:10.740 jail.

00:47:11.940 So,

00:47:12.560 the people

00:47:13.000 are now

00:47:13.800 very,

00:47:14.440 very afraid

00:47:15.740 to speak

00:47:17.120 something else

00:47:18.420 that what is

00:47:19.260 obviously

00:47:19.740 accepted.

00:47:20.660 For example,

00:47:21.640 words like

00:47:22.660 war and,

00:47:24.160 and,

00:47:24.580 and,

00:47:25.000 and that like,

00:47:25.960 that kind of

00:47:26.360 words,

00:47:27.640 they are

00:47:27.880 forbidden.

00:47:29.180 So,

00:47:29.360 you can't say

00:47:29.880 this is a war,

00:47:30.700 you have to say

00:47:31.240 it's a special

00:47:31.720 military operation.

00:47:33.320 And if you get

00:47:34.020 that information

00:47:34.880 25 hours

00:47:36.880 in a day

00:47:37.880 from television,

00:47:39.980 so you start

00:47:41.700 to believe

00:47:42.160 that.

00:47:43.760 Like a Chinese 1.00

00:47:44.840 water torture,

00:47:46.480 you get

00:47:46.880 drop

00:47:47.420 on your 1.00

00:47:49.480 head, 0.98

00:47:49.980 one drop

00:47:50.700 doesn't do

00:47:51.200 anything,

00:47:51.620 but if you

00:47:51.980 get

00:47:52.160 100 or

00:47:54.600 1000 of

00:47:55.240 drops in

00:47:55.820 a head, 1.00

00:47:56.240 your head

00:47:56.620 starts to,

00:47:57.540 to,

00:47:57.820 to,

00:47:57.920 to,

00:47:58.080 to,

00:47:58.220 to,

00:47:58.280 to,

00:47:58.340 you get

00:48:00.000 a headache.

00:48:01.480 So,

00:48:01.800 it's the same

00:48:02.160 because if you,

00:48:04.040 every evening

00:48:04.980 you open the TV

00:48:06.080 and you hear

00:48:06.740 that,

00:48:07.160 okay,

00:48:07.520 in,

00:48:07.800 in,

00:48:08.100 in Kiev,

00:48:09.480 the leaders

00:48:10.160 in Kiev,

00:48:10.980 they are 0.99

00:48:11.260 Nazis, 0.95

00:48:11.680 and so on

00:48:13.380 and so on,

00:48:13.880 you start

00:48:14.360 to believe

00:48:14.800 that.

00:48:15.760 And,

00:48:15.860 and you,

00:48:16.280 you hear

00:48:17.200 that,

00:48:17.500 okay,

00:48:17.900 the Russian

00:48:18.400 forces are

00:48:19.220 participating

00:48:20.200 in a special

00:48:20.680 operation

00:48:21.260 because they

00:48:22.420 are trying

00:48:22.740 to get

00:48:23.120 rid,

00:48:23.960 rid of 0.99

00:48:24.640 the Nazis, 0.90

00:48:25.460 you start

00:48:26.380 to believe

00:48:26.800 that.

00:48:27.820 And,

00:48:27.940 and you

00:48:28.400 have not

00:48:29.000 the alternative

00:48:29.700 truth,

00:48:30.720 which,

00:48:31.120 which you

00:48:31.580 might get

00:48:32.180 from the

00:48:32.620 West.

00:48:33.120 So,

00:48:33.200 so it

00:48:33.580 means that,

00:48:34.880 and,

00:48:35.240 and if,

00:48:36.260 and of course,

00:48:37.340 you believe

00:48:38.140 that.

00:48:38.420 And,

00:48:38.680 of course,

00:48:38.960 if you are

00:48:39.480 stopped in the

00:48:40.120 street and

00:48:41.380 they interview,

00:48:42.140 are you,

00:48:42.440 are you

00:48:42.720 supporting Putin

00:48:43.440 or not?

00:48:44.880 Guess what

00:48:45.560 the people

00:48:45.880 usually answer.

00:48:49.480 So,

00:48:50.120 I think

00:48:50.840 it goes

00:48:51.160 like that.

00:48:53.120 And,

00:48:53.760 the problem

00:48:54.800 is,

00:48:55.380 is,

00:48:55.800 is what,

00:48:56.540 once that

00:48:56.800 happens and

00:48:57.420 you've got

00:48:57.760 the majority

00:48:58.300 behind him,

00:48:59.320 it makes

00:48:59.900 the leader

00:49:00.240 very strong,

00:49:01.060 doesn't it?

00:49:01.940 Because if

00:49:02.400 there's no,

00:49:03.060 if,

00:49:03.400 you know,

00:49:03.660 if there's

00:49:03.920 no criticism,

00:49:04.900 if there's

00:49:05.180 no public

00:49:05.760 backlash,

00:49:06.760 then there's

00:49:07.220 going to be

00:49:07.520 less reason

00:49:08.260 for him to,

00:49:09.020 think about

00:49:11.040 his actions

00:49:11.700 and maybe

00:49:12.100 change them.

00:49:13.380 Yeah,

00:49:13.520 but in the

00:49:13.920 Russian days,

00:49:14.500 you know,

00:49:14.840 always has

00:49:15.420 been in

00:49:15.840 Soviet Union

00:49:16.340 and Russia,

00:49:16.860 there has

00:49:17.100 been,

00:49:18.200 one thing

00:49:18.620 which I

00:49:18.960 learned in

00:49:19.280 1986 in

00:49:20.220 Leningrad,

00:49:20.680 that they

00:49:20.940 have a

00:49:22.600 lot of

00:49:23.140 levels of

00:49:24.020 the truth.

00:49:25.740 The truth

00:49:26.560 in the

00:49:27.080 newspapers

00:49:27.600 is different

00:49:28.880 than the

00:49:29.360 truth on

00:49:30.120 the street.

00:49:31.120 And the

00:49:31.740 truth on

00:49:32.740 the street

00:49:33.140 is different

00:49:33.800 than the

00:49:34.420 truth in

00:49:35.360 the kitchen,

00:49:35.920 in the

00:49:36.280 kitchen table.

00:49:36.820 So we

00:49:39.040 don't know,

00:49:40.180 we don't

00:49:40.460 make the 0.97

00:49:41.340 balls, 0.97

00:49:42.160 or they

00:49:42.660 don't make 0.98

00:49:43.000 the balls 0.94

00:49:43.440 in a 0.99

00:49:44.180 kitchen.

00:49:45.080 They make

00:49:45.480 the balls

00:49:45.960 in the

00:49:46.800 streets,

00:49:47.380 on the

00:49:47.640 streets.

00:49:48.000 So we

00:49:48.960 don't exactly

00:49:49.580 know what

00:49:50.380 is the

00:49:51.060 real support

00:49:52.180 of the

00:49:53.000 present.

00:49:54.280 Yes.

00:49:54.780 And you

00:49:55.260 mentioned

00:49:55.640 different levels

00:49:56.760 of truth.

00:49:57.300 One of the

00:49:57.820 most fascinating

00:49:58.740 parts of your

00:49:59.540 lecture for me

00:50:00.340 was when you

00:50:01.320 talked about

00:50:02.040 language and

00:50:03.340 how in

00:50:03.780 Russian there

00:50:04.500 are different

00:50:05.100 words for

00:50:06.000 truth.

00:50:06.300 And I'd

00:50:06.640 never thought

00:50:07.080 about this,

00:50:07.620 but it is

00:50:08.140 accurate the

00:50:09.100 way you

00:50:09.340 describe it.

00:50:10.000 We have

00:50:10.400 different words

00:50:11.760 for truth.

00:50:12.560 And some

00:50:12.920 of them

00:50:13.220 mean that

00:50:14.340 it's absolutely

00:50:15.320 true, but

00:50:15.980 some of

00:50:16.400 them are

00:50:17.000 more flexible.

00:50:18.160 And so

00:50:18.460 people are

00:50:19.100 more flexible.

00:50:20.080 And you

00:50:20.260 also talked

00:50:20.800 about the

00:50:21.160 fact that

00:50:21.540 in Russia

00:50:21.940 there is

00:50:22.680 this feeling

00:50:23.280 among people,

00:50:24.040 and this is

00:50:24.380 definitely true,

00:50:25.120 that if I

00:50:26.620 lie for the

00:50:27.820 benefit of my

00:50:28.780 country or

00:50:29.620 for the

00:50:29.940 benefit of my

00:50:30.700 group,

00:50:31.720 then other

00:50:32.600 people will

00:50:33.280 be okay and

00:50:34.400 they will also

00:50:35.160 agree that I

00:50:35.880 am telling

00:50:36.320 the truth

00:50:37.280 in inverted

00:50:38.140 commas,

00:50:38.940 even though

00:50:39.320 they know

00:50:39.620 I'm lying

00:50:40.140 because they

00:50:41.040 know it's

00:50:41.440 for our

00:50:42.020 collective

00:50:42.460 benefit.

00:50:43.040 Can you

00:50:43.260 explain a

00:50:43.800 little bit

00:50:44.080 about that?

00:50:45.300 Yeah,

00:50:45.440 they call it,

00:50:45.980 it's like,

00:50:46.880 in Russian it's

00:50:47.880 called

00:50:48.080 it's like

00:50:50.060 a company

00:50:51.860 guarantee or

00:50:52.680 how do you

00:50:53.000 translate?

00:50:53.540 Collective

00:50:53.920 responsibility,

00:50:54.860 it's called in

00:50:55.240 English.

00:50:55.480 it means that

00:50:57.060 when the

00:50:57.900 Russians went 1.00

00:50:58.340 to Crimea,

00:50:59.500 the Russian

00:50:59.820 forces went

00:51:00.380 to Crimea,

00:51:01.460 no insignia,

00:51:03.200 no any

00:51:04.300 insignias that

00:51:06.040 they are

00:51:06.360 Russian soldiers,

00:51:07.340 they went to

00:51:07.820 Crimea and

00:51:10.060 they start to

00:51:10.700 take the

00:51:11.740 objects to

00:51:14.800 their hand,

00:51:15.740 I mean the

00:51:16.260 airport and

00:51:17.920 the

00:51:19.040 garnisons and

00:51:19.640 so on,

00:51:19.960 and people

00:51:21.920 were wondering

00:51:22.740 who they

00:51:23.200 are and

00:51:24.500 Putin said

00:51:24.940 they are not

00:51:25.440 Russian soldiers

00:51:26.260 and we

00:51:29.360 in West we

00:51:30.160 were thinking

00:51:30.480 okay if

00:51:31.160 they are not

00:51:31.940 Russian soldiers

00:51:32.880 who they

00:51:33.340 are and

00:51:36.260 after three

00:51:36.800 days Putin

00:51:38.700 said okay

00:51:39.220 they are Russian

00:51:39.920 soldiers so

00:51:41.060 Putin gained

00:51:42.960 three days

00:51:45.580 advantage by

00:51:47.740 telling the

00:51:48.320 tactical truth

00:51:49.140 so he was

00:51:50.520 denying that

00:51:51.560 they are

00:51:52.080 Russian soldiers

00:51:54.420 he said that

00:51:55.020 they are not

00:51:55.380 and I was

00:51:57.580 thinking okay

00:51:58.060 if our

00:51:58.960 president would

00:51:59.560 say that

00:51:59.880 those people

00:52:00.820 are not my

00:52:01.380 soldiers,

00:52:02.620 the soldiers

00:52:03.100 would be very

00:52:03.980 angry but

00:52:05.540 because the

00:52:07.080 Russian soldiers

00:52:08.000 understood that

00:52:08.840 it was

00:52:09.320 he was

00:52:12.020 denying us

00:52:13.300 because he

00:52:14.480 is achieving

00:52:16.000 time,

00:52:16.800 he is

00:52:17.220 bluffing

00:52:18.300 the West

00:52:20.480 intel and

00:52:21.120 so on,

00:52:21.840 they accepted

00:52:22.400 that they

00:52:23.060 were not

00:52:23.340 saying hey

00:52:23.860 we are Russian

00:52:24.360 soldiers,

00:52:24.960 don't forget

00:52:26.440 that we are

00:52:26.880 here.

00:52:27.820 So that's

00:52:28.720 one example.

00:52:30.360 So you can

00:52:31.120 use the tactical

00:52:31.820 truth to bluff,

00:52:33.560 to get people

00:52:34.360 confused.

00:52:35.140 As Lavrov,

00:52:36.420 when they

00:52:36.680 started

00:52:36.920 negotiation in

00:52:37.680 Istanbul,

00:52:39.040 he said that

00:52:39.460 we have not

00:52:40.340 attacked Ukraine

00:52:41.480 because the

00:52:43.500 basic assumption

00:52:44.460 of the

00:52:45.260 negotiations

00:52:45.860 was that

00:52:46.560 Russia was 0.98

00:52:48.140 Russia has 0.96

00:52:49.500 attacked Ukraine.

00:52:51.040 That was the

00:52:51.460 basic assumption.

00:52:52.880 Everybody has

00:52:53.440 the notes

00:52:54.680 according to

00:52:55.760 that basic

00:52:56.320 assumption that

00:52:57.300 okay we

00:52:57.700 negotiate,

00:52:59.180 we will

00:53:00.460 implement this

00:53:01.700 negotiation

00:53:02.240 according to

00:53:03.020 the basic

00:53:03.520 assumption that

00:53:04.380 okay Russia

00:53:05.100 has attacked

00:53:05.880 Ukraine and

00:53:07.020 everybody was

00:53:07.880 ready to start

00:53:08.660 from that point

00:53:09.300 of you and

00:53:10.200 he came there

00:53:10.680 and said we

00:53:11.200 have not

00:53:11.520 attacked Ukraine.

00:53:13.360 Everybody was

00:53:13.780 looking at

00:53:14.940 their papers.

00:53:15.460 How can I

00:53:16.700 start now?

00:53:17.140 Because he

00:53:17.460 said that

00:53:17.880 they have

00:53:19.260 not attacked

00:53:19.640 us.

00:53:20.720 And what

00:53:21.120 you're saying

00:53:21.600 to us as

00:53:22.700 well is

00:53:23.040 people in

00:53:23.820 Russia don't 0.99

00:53:24.480 mind that

00:53:25.080 their president

00:53:25.720 didn't tell

00:53:26.880 the truth

00:53:28.160 about Crimea,

00:53:30.120 about Russian

00:53:30.840 soldiers or

00:53:32.080 they don't

00:53:32.560 mind that

00:53:33.060 they didn't

00:53:33.600 tell the

00:53:33.960 truth about

00:53:34.660 what's

00:53:35.220 happening in

00:53:35.700 Ukraine.

00:53:36.360 They can

00:53:37.220 be okay

00:53:38.680 with that

00:53:39.280 because it's

00:53:40.260 for the

00:53:40.520 benefit of

00:53:40.980 the

00:53:41.080 country.

00:53:41.800 Yeah,

00:53:42.120 that's that

00:53:42.580 system of

00:53:43.100 the

00:53:43.220 he was

00:53:45.720 clever. 0.51

00:53:47.140 Yes,

00:53:47.480 he was

00:53:47.720 clever because

00:53:48.280 between

00:53:48.720 truth and

00:53:50.620 the lie,

00:53:51.880 there is a

00:53:52.260 lot of,

00:53:53.060 let's say,

00:53:54.020 50 shades,

00:53:54.840 but don't

00:53:55.400 think that

00:53:55.760 move now,

00:53:56.620 50 shades

00:53:57.400 of gray

00:53:58.260 where you

00:53:59.440 can flexible

00:54:00.220 move,

00:54:01.080 very flexible

00:54:01.640 you can move

00:54:02.180 in that.

00:54:02.720 And what

00:54:02.900 does that

00:54:03.340 mean for

00:54:04.320 what we

00:54:05.940 hear in

00:54:06.660 the West

00:54:07.280 in Russian

00:54:09.040 media like

00:54:10.020 RT or

00:54:10.880 Sputnik or

00:54:11.540 whatever,

00:54:12.420 are those

00:54:13.400 reliable TV

00:54:15.260 channels for

00:54:15.920 people to

00:54:16.440 get the

00:54:17.040 information

00:54:17.360 from?

00:54:18.340 No,

00:54:18.500 I think in

00:54:18.980 many countries

00:54:19.600 they have

00:54:20.120 closed RT,

00:54:22.020 for example,

00:54:22.740 because they

00:54:23.280 consider that

00:54:23.940 it's not

00:54:24.320 reliable source

00:54:25.380 of information.

00:54:27.220 But of

00:54:28.040 course,

00:54:28.960 we can

00:54:32.140 follow because

00:54:32.820 it's quite

00:54:34.080 important to

00:54:34.880 also follow

00:54:35.560 with RT,

00:54:36.280 for example,

00:54:37.140 telling because

00:54:37.860 if you are

00:54:39.300 able to

00:54:39.980 interpret

00:54:40.480 what if

00:54:42.300 they are

00:54:43.020 saying

00:54:43.280 something and

00:54:43.920 you can

00:54:44.260 understand

00:54:44.780 why they

00:54:46.180 are saying

00:54:46.560 something,

00:54:46.900 what is

00:54:47.140 behind that

00:54:47.780 tactical truth.

00:54:50.740 So I think

00:54:51.840 it's not wise

00:54:52.480 to close,

00:54:53.380 it's much

00:54:54.620 more wise to

00:54:55.500 monitor and

00:54:56.420 think from

00:54:57.480 the point of

00:54:57.940 view of,

00:54:58.400 for example,

00:54:58.700 tactical truth.

00:54:59.920 No,

00:55:00.500 I agree with

00:55:01.160 you about

00:55:01.460 closing,

00:55:02.360 but what

00:55:03.280 I'm getting

00:55:03.820 at is I

00:55:04.760 think some

00:55:05.260 people have

00:55:05.800 been,

00:55:06.660 rather than

00:55:07.420 watching and

00:55:08.200 interpreting,

00:55:08.980 they've been

00:55:09.360 watching and

00:55:10.160 believing.

00:55:11.700 Yeah,

00:55:12.700 what we did

00:55:14.300 in Finland

00:55:14.820 already,

00:55:17.220 let's say

00:55:17.960 more than

00:55:18.280 10 years ago,

00:55:19.040 we opened,

00:55:19.640 we have,

00:55:20.800 because I

00:55:21.320 told that we

00:55:21.740 have two

00:55:22.040 official languages,

00:55:22.920 we have

00:55:23.140 Swedish and

00:55:24.040 Finnish,

00:55:25.140 two official

00:55:27.260 languages,

00:55:28.340 but we have

00:55:28.980 also news

00:55:29.920 and,

00:55:31.160 in Russia

00:55:31.840 and in

00:55:33.820 Sami.

00:55:34.480 Sami is

00:55:35.080 a language

00:55:35.620 which they

00:55:36.100 speak,

00:55:36.920 the people

00:55:38.020 up in

00:55:39.240 Lapland,

00:55:39.740 they speak

00:55:40.140 Sami language.

00:55:41.480 So we

00:55:41.780 have,

00:55:42.580 when you

00:55:42.800 open TV,

00:55:44.080 at five

00:55:45.800 o'clock,

00:55:46.420 you get

00:55:46.660 news in

00:55:48.060 Finnish,

00:55:49.820 in Swedish,

00:55:51.020 in Sami,

00:55:52.040 and in

00:55:52.400 Russia.

00:55:53.860 So even

00:55:54.380 Sami and

00:55:55.040 Russia are 0.88

00:55:55.520 not our

00:55:56.140 official

00:55:56.440 languages.

00:55:56.900 so we

00:55:57.960 decided

00:55:58.380 that we

00:55:58.880 will

00:55:59.140 fight

00:56:00.100 the

00:56:00.620 information

00:56:01.260 warfare

00:56:01.900 by

00:56:03.120 telling

00:56:03.820 the

00:56:05.320 Finnish

00:56:05.560 truth,

00:56:06.580 which is

00:56:07.260 much more,

00:56:08.280 I think,

00:56:08.680 it's much

00:56:09.020 more close

00:56:09.600 to the

00:56:10.900 real

00:56:11.180 truth.

00:56:11.680 It's not

00:56:11.940 tactical

00:56:12.320 truth,

00:56:12.680 but it's,

00:56:13.240 you know,

00:56:13.600 based on

00:56:14.640 mainly on

00:56:15.520 the facts.

00:56:17.440 So I

00:56:17.820 think it's

00:56:18.680 a good

00:56:18.940 system.

00:56:19.700 We

00:56:19.780 had a good

00:56:20.100 system

00:56:20.480 to

00:56:21.360 make

00:56:22.100 the

00:56:22.340 information,

00:56:23.220 weight

00:56:23.500 information

00:56:24.320 warfare.

00:56:24.720 And

00:56:25.960 Mehra,

00:56:26.920 where does

00:56:27.980 this leave

00:56:28.420 Putin now?

00:56:29.400 Because I

00:56:30.180 think most

00:56:30.720 people would

00:56:31.160 acknowledge for

00:56:31.820 Russia this

00:56:32.400 has not been

00:56:32.880 a success.

00:56:34.000 They've lost

00:56:34.680 a lot of

00:56:35.080 men.

00:56:35.560 Their

00:56:35.680 reputation

00:56:36.240 has been

00:56:36.640 damaged.

00:56:37.520 His

00:56:37.720 reputation

00:56:38.400 has been

00:56:38.840 damaged.

00:56:40.680 It's

00:56:41.160 going to

00:56:41.540 probably end

00:56:42.240 in some

00:56:42.620 kind of

00:56:43.100 stalemate.

00:56:44.500 Where does

00:56:45.120 he go from

00:56:45.600 here?

00:56:46.600 I think

00:56:47.080 they have

00:56:48.720 stalemate in

00:56:49.420 Kiev area,

00:56:50.300 they have

00:56:50.600 stalemate in

00:56:51.640 North,

00:56:52.180 they have

00:56:52.500 stalemate in

00:56:53.880 don't

00:56:56.480 operational

00:56:56.940 direction,

00:56:57.760 I mean

00:56:58.020 the rebel

00:56:58.540 areas.

00:56:59.520 What they

00:57:00.000 are,

00:57:01.000 okay,

00:57:01.640 they will,

00:57:02.240 the victory

00:57:03.520 day,

00:57:04.420 9th of

00:57:05.000 May,

00:57:06.320 so they

00:57:06.960 had to

00:57:07.440 have

00:57:07.700 something

00:57:08.240 to show

00:57:09.880 to the

00:57:10.580 people.

00:57:11.560 We have

00:57:11.880 one.

00:57:13.120 And what

00:57:13.520 they probably

00:57:14.760 do,

00:57:15.340 they do,

00:57:16.480 they,

00:57:17.020 because they

00:57:17.380 said that,

00:57:17.760 okay,

00:57:18.600 we,

00:57:19.040 the main

00:57:19.860 reason of

00:57:20.440 the operation

00:57:20.960 was to

00:57:21.420 protect

00:57:21.880 those

00:57:22.980 two

00:57:23.680 republics

00:57:25.580 or rebel

00:57:26.440 areas.

00:57:27.280 They call

00:57:27.580 them

00:57:27.720 republics.

00:57:29.340 So what

00:57:29.860 they do,

00:57:30.400 I think

00:57:31.000 that they

00:57:31.420 are trying

00:57:31.800 to get

00:57:32.200 that old

00:57:32.860 Novorossia

00:57:33.760 area,

00:57:34.340 it means

00:57:34.640 that from

00:57:35.240 Donbass

00:57:36.340 to Crimea.

00:57:39.220 So the

00:57:39.560 idea is

00:57:40.580 that the

00:57:42.420 shores of 0.67

00:57:43.820 Azova Sea

00:57:44.760 from the

00:57:46.240 rebels areas

00:57:47.360 to Crimea

00:57:48.460 until

00:57:49.400 Dnieper

00:57:50.580 river

00:57:51.140 up north.

00:57:52.000 the area

00:57:54.100 is called

00:57:54.540 Novorossia.

00:57:56.220 And I

00:57:56.840 think that

00:57:57.840 they are

00:57:59.360 before the

00:57:59.900 9th of

00:58:00.440 May,

00:58:01.340 they are

00:58:01.620 trying to

00:58:02.160 take

00:58:02.680 that area

00:58:04.240 and the

00:58:04.860 key of

00:58:05.600 that area

00:58:06.800 is Mariupol.

00:58:08.060 So I think

00:58:09.160 they are pushing

00:58:09.600 now hard

00:58:10.160 Mariupol

00:58:10.700 and if they

00:58:11.720 get that,

00:58:12.180 they can

00:58:12.340 say,

00:58:12.560 okay,

00:58:12.920 this is

00:58:13.920 what we

00:58:14.440 were trying

00:58:15.460 to get

00:58:15.880 and now

00:58:16.500 we get

00:58:17.040 that,

00:58:17.400 we won

00:58:17.780 the war

00:58:18.120 and that

00:58:20.980 should have

00:58:21.660 happened before

00:58:22.640 the 9th of

00:58:23.480 May because

00:58:24.120 then they

00:58:24.700 can,

00:58:25.020 you know,

00:58:25.900 glorify all

00:58:27.040 the losses

00:58:28.680 which they

00:58:29.240 have had

00:58:29.680 during the

00:58:30.100 war because

00:58:31.680 they fight

00:58:32.220 against the

00:58:32.760 Nazis again

00:58:34.480 and now

00:58:35.600 we get

00:58:36.100 that Novorossia

00:58:37.540 now people

00:58:38.580 in those

00:58:40.500 two

00:58:40.920 rebuffles

00:58:42.680 are safe

00:58:44.140 and free.

00:58:44.580 And I

00:58:46.100 know that

00:58:46.460 your

00:58:46.640 background

00:58:47.060 is not

00:58:47.500 in

00:58:47.680 decision

00:58:48.060 making,

00:58:48.440 it's in

00:58:48.900 intelligence

00:58:49.480 and analysis

00:58:50.880 but if I

00:58:52.220 were a

00:58:52.560 decision

00:58:52.880 maker

00:58:53.240 and I

00:58:53.780 came to

00:58:54.260 you and

00:58:54.620 I said,

00:58:55.120 Colonel,

00:58:55.660 I want

00:58:56.600 to make

00:58:56.980 sure that

00:58:58.060 this is

00:58:58.500 the end,

00:58:59.160 that whatever

00:59:00.120 happens in

00:59:00.800 Ukraine now,

00:59:02.000 peace is

00:59:03.660 upheld,

00:59:05.400 that Russia 0.72

00:59:05.860 does not

00:59:06.380 advance further,

00:59:07.880 that they're

00:59:08.120 not even

00:59:08.760 thinking about

00:59:09.700 this as a

00:59:10.300 Western decision

00:59:11.060 maker.

00:59:11.520 What would

00:59:11.840 you say to

00:59:12.320 me?

00:59:12.700 What would

00:59:13.000 your advice

00:59:13.440 be?

00:59:13.660 Broadway's

00:59:15.100 smash hit,

00:59:16.060 the Neil

00:59:16.380 Diamond

00:59:16.680 musical,

00:59:17.480 A Beautiful

00:59:18.080 Noise,

00:59:18.880 is coming

00:59:19.440 to Toronto.

00:59:20.320 The true

00:59:20.700 story of a

00:59:21.380 kid from

00:59:21.800 Brooklyn destined

00:59:22.660 for something

00:59:23.280 more,

00:59:23.840 featuring all

00:59:24.360 the songs

00:59:24.840 you love,

00:59:25.580 including

00:59:25.960 America,

00:59:26.880 Forever in

00:59:27.340 Blue Jeans,

00:59:28.120 and Sweet

00:59:28.560 Caroline.

00:59:29.600 Like Jersey

00:59:30.180 Boys and

00:59:30.820 Beautiful,

00:59:31.400 the next

00:59:31.860 musical mega

00:59:32.740 hit is here,

00:59:33.680 the Neil

00:59:34.080 Diamond

00:59:34.440 musical,

00:59:35.260 A Beautiful

00:59:35.800 Noise,

00:59:36.460 April 28th

00:59:37.380 through June

00:59:37.840 7th,

00:59:38.420 2026,

00:59:39.500 the Princess

00:59:39.960 of Wales

00:59:40.520 Theatre.

00:59:41.400 Get tickets

00:59:41.920 at

00:59:42.120 mervish.com.

00:59:43.660 That's a

00:59:46.840 bad,

00:59:48.140 bad,

00:59:48.880 difficult,

00:59:49.440 difficult

00:59:49.640 question.

00:59:50.140 I think,

00:59:51.200 first of

00:59:51.560 all,

00:59:52.520 don't

00:59:52.740 escalate

00:59:53.280 as NATO,

00:59:54.620 don't

00:59:54.860 escalate.

00:59:55.940 Second,

00:59:56.780 support

00:59:57.400 Ukraine

00:59:58.040 every way

01:00:01.100 as you

01:00:02.160 can.

01:00:03.060 Wait,

01:00:03.400 aren't those

01:00:03.820 two contradictory

01:00:04.560 to each

01:00:05.080 other?

01:00:05.280 No,

01:00:07.240 no,

01:00:07.840 because you

01:00:08.240 can

01:00:08.360 economically,

01:00:10.160 humanitarily,

01:00:11.220 you can

01:00:11.520 support Ukraine,

01:00:12.340 you can

01:00:12.560 provide Ukraine

01:00:13.620 weapons,

01:00:15.720 but it

01:00:16.760 doesn't mean

01:00:17.600 escalation.

01:00:18.700 Escalation

01:00:19.120 means that

01:00:19.580 there's another

01:00:20.340 fighter and

01:00:21.140 Russian fighter

01:00:21.900 and they are

01:00:22.500 fighting in

01:00:22.960 the air.

01:00:23.240 But if

01:00:24.100 you provide

01:00:24.580 weapons,

01:00:25.080 for example,

01:00:25.600 we sent

01:00:25.920 a lot

01:00:26.120 of weapons,

01:00:27.620 Finland sent

01:00:28.240 a lot

01:00:28.420 of weapons

01:00:28.880 to Ukraine

01:00:30.120 as a

01:00:32.220 member of

01:00:33.380 the European

01:00:33.720 Union,

01:00:34.480 as all

01:00:34.980 the European

01:00:35.460 Union

01:00:35.700 nations did.

01:00:37.820 And the UK

01:00:38.980 also sent

01:00:39.680 javelins,

01:00:40.980 which has

01:00:41.720 been a very

01:00:42.420 good weapon.

01:00:43.520 It has

01:00:43.900 provided to be

01:00:44.600 a very good

01:00:45.040 weapon against

01:00:46.400 the tanks.

01:00:47.220 But anyhow,

01:00:47.980 so I would

01:00:48.440 say that,

01:00:48.800 okay,

01:00:49.020 don't escalate,

01:00:50.340 support Ukraine,

01:00:51.760 support the

01:00:52.280 peace process

01:00:53.040 and be

01:00:56.260 aware,

01:00:57.280 be ready

01:00:57.740 if something

01:00:58.340 bad happened.

01:00:59.600 Don't believe

01:01:00.080 everything.

01:01:01.480 That might be

01:01:02.060 my advice.

01:01:04.060 Mahra,

01:01:04.780 do you think

01:01:05.180 he will use

01:01:05.720 chemical weapons?

01:01:08.960 I think

01:01:09.800 not.

01:01:10.960 I think

01:01:11.260 because it

01:01:12.200 would escalate,

01:01:13.520 it would be

01:01:14.200 the red line.

01:01:15.300 Why would

01:01:15.720 he use

01:01:16.580 those weapons?

01:01:18.480 What would

01:01:19.540 he gain?

01:01:20.420 Because now

01:01:21.060 he hasn't

01:01:21.880 gained

01:01:22.360 a lot

01:01:25.260 of success

01:01:26.440 by attacking

01:01:27.600 normally

01:01:29.540 by ground

01:01:30.200 forces.

01:01:31.540 What would

01:01:32.300 he gain

01:01:33.140 by using

01:01:34.220 the chemical

01:01:34.740 weapon?

01:01:35.320 Especially

01:01:35.720 if you look

01:01:36.860 for example

01:01:37.680 the Ukrainian

01:01:38.740 videos,

01:01:43.040 you see

01:01:43.380 that all

01:01:43.840 the Ukrainian

01:01:44.540 soldiers,

01:01:45.120 they have

01:01:45.720 the gas masks

01:01:46.540 ready

01:01:47.180 beside them.

01:01:48.780 so it

01:01:49.140 means that

01:01:49.640 Ukrainians

01:01:50.400 are saying

01:01:50.900 that we

01:01:51.300 are ready

01:01:51.760 if you

01:01:52.380 use

01:01:52.820 chemical

01:01:54.120 weapon,

01:01:54.880 we are

01:01:55.100 ready.

01:01:55.880 So don't

01:01:56.320 use that

01:01:56.760 because there

01:01:57.340 is no

01:01:57.900 effect.

01:01:59.620 that makes

01:02:02.420 sense.

01:02:03.180 All right,

01:02:03.460 well,

01:02:03.620 Colonel,

01:02:03.900 it's been

01:02:04.360 really great

01:02:05.400 to get

01:02:06.020 your thoughts

01:02:06.480 on everything

01:02:06.940 that's going

01:02:07.380 on.

01:02:08.000 We're going

01:02:08.420 to ask

01:02:08.740 you a 0.57

01:02:09.000 couple of

01:02:09.360 questions

01:02:09.760 from our

01:02:10.400 supporters,

01:02:11.160 for our

01:02:11.620 supporters,

01:02:12.140 but before

01:02:12.440 we do,

01:02:13.200 the question

01:02:13.600 we always

01:02:14.020 finish with

01:02:14.700 is what's

01:02:15.740 the one

01:02:16.040 thing that

01:02:16.540 we're not

01:02:16.900 talking about

01:02:17.620 here in the

01:02:18.120 West that

01:02:18.700 you think

01:02:19.080 we should

01:02:19.400 be?

01:02:21.420 You know,

01:02:22.120 related with

01:02:22.640 Russia or 0.72

01:02:23.240 Ukraine or

01:02:24.160 anything at

01:02:25.540 all?

01:02:26.900 Anything what I

01:02:27.440 want to speak?

01:02:28.060 Yes.

01:02:29.900 For example,

01:02:30.940 about myself?

01:02:32.840 Well, if you

01:02:33.880 think we

01:02:34.340 don't talk

01:02:34.800 about you

01:02:35.240 enough,

01:02:36.140 then yes.

01:02:37.720 Okay.

01:02:38.260 So I think

01:02:38.860 what is now

01:02:39.680 very interesting

01:02:40.260 is what is

01:02:42.380 going on

01:02:42.840 is NATO

01:02:43.300 discussions

01:02:44.320 about NATO

01:02:44.900 membership in

01:02:45.540 Finland.

01:02:46.800 Finland and

01:02:47.380 Sweden,

01:02:49.140 because before

01:02:50.840 the Ukrainian

01:02:51.700 war,

01:02:53.760 according to

01:02:54.460 polls in

01:02:55.100 Finland,

01:02:56.380 the

01:02:57.900 supporters,

01:02:58.960 the number

01:02:59.320 of supporters

01:02:59.980 or percentage

01:03:00.600 of supporters

01:03:02.680 of NATO

01:03:04.060 was about

01:03:04.740 30,

01:03:06.740 28,

01:03:07.720 30%.

01:03:08.440 When the

01:03:09.940 war broke

01:03:10.560 out,

01:03:11.500 now 62%

01:03:13.220 of Finns

01:03:13.760 support the

01:03:14.660 NATO

01:03:14.840 membership.

01:03:16.720 So it

01:03:17.600 doubled,

01:03:18.020 the number

01:03:18.360 doubled.

01:03:19.320 So 62%

01:03:20.900 now support

01:03:22.360 NATO

01:03:22.660 membership in

01:03:23.440 Finland and

01:03:24.040 28% is

01:03:25.480 against.

01:03:25.920 so it

01:03:27.780 means that

01:03:28.680 because we

01:03:30.200 have had

01:03:30.680 long-time

01:03:31.740 discussions,

01:03:32.600 should we

01:03:33.020 join or

01:03:33.460 should we

01:03:33.820 not join,

01:03:34.740 but our

01:03:35.280 politicians,

01:03:36.440 they have

01:03:37.600 not been

01:03:38.300 brave enough

01:03:39.400 to start

01:03:41.520 the process.

01:03:42.980 And now

01:03:43.360 it seems

01:03:44.380 that the

01:03:44.980 people have

01:03:46.980 overrun

01:03:47.740 the politicians.

01:03:49.800 The people

01:03:50.840 have overrun

01:03:51.660 the politicians

01:03:52.280 and now

01:03:52.860 the politicians

01:03:53.500 try to

01:03:54.380 fix the

01:03:55.900 situation.

01:03:56.560 They try

01:03:57.020 to find

01:03:58.420 their position

01:03:59.780 in this

01:04:00.980 changed

01:04:01.480 situation

01:04:02.600 and

01:04:04.380 almost all

01:04:05.600 the politicians

01:04:06.220 surprisingly

01:04:07.240 are for the

01:04:09.360 NATO

01:04:09.620 membership now

01:04:10.400 because they

01:04:11.640 realize that

01:04:12.340 people want

01:04:14.020 to join

01:04:14.340 NATO.

01:04:14.640 Yes.

01:04:16.020 So there's

01:04:16.620 a great

01:04:16.920 irony here

01:04:17.780 in attempting

01:04:18.920 to, if

01:04:20.100 the rationale

01:04:21.040 of Putin's

01:04:21.780 invasion is

01:04:22.320 partly about

01:04:23.000 pushing NATO

01:04:23.700 back, he's

01:04:24.760 actually strengthened

01:04:25.620 NATO with 0.91

01:04:26.360 what he's

01:04:26.720 done.

01:04:27.400 Yes, yes,

01:04:28.520 yeah.

01:04:29.800 We were

01:04:30.580 joking that we

01:04:31.140 should send

01:04:31.780 the Kremlin

01:04:32.240 a lot of

01:04:33.180 those military

01:04:34.320 merit medals

01:04:35.400 because they

01:04:36.500 have worked

01:04:37.700 hard for

01:04:38.380 Finnish defense.

01:04:39.080 Well, on

01:04:41.660 that happy

01:04:42.120 note,

01:04:42.680 Colonel, it's

01:04:43.060 been an

01:04:43.340 absolute

01:04:43.620 pleasure.

01:04:44.460 Before we

01:04:44.940 wrap up the

01:04:46.420 interview and

01:04:46.800 ask you

01:04:47.080 questions for

01:04:47.600 our supporters,

01:04:48.600 I know you're

01:04:49.360 active on

01:04:49.880 Twitter.

01:04:50.640 Where else

01:04:51.200 should people

01:04:51.600 go to see

01:04:52.700 your thoughts

01:04:53.540 and your

01:04:53.840 commentary?

01:04:54.820 I link it

01:04:55.300 in.

01:04:57.960 I'm just

01:04:59.240 following

01:04:59.700 business

01:05:00.080 things, but

01:05:00.780 I'm a

01:05:02.920 Twitter man.

01:05:04.540 So Twitter

01:05:05.000 is my

01:05:05.740 main media.

01:05:07.780 Okay, we'll

01:05:08.280 make sure to

01:05:08.780 put the

01:05:09.060 link to

01:05:09.320 your

01:05:09.480 brilliant

01:05:09.840 lecture and

01:05:10.880 your Twitter

01:05:11.280 handle in

01:05:11.840 the description

01:05:12.320 of the

01:05:12.620 video.

01:05:13.160 With that,

01:05:13.660 thank you

01:05:13.940 for coming

01:05:14.300 on the

01:05:14.600 show and

01:05:15.220 thank you

01:05:15.640 all for

01:05:15.960 watching and

01:05:16.440 listening.

01:05:17.180 We'll see

01:05:17.580 you very

01:05:17.920 soon with

01:05:18.320 another

01:05:18.480 brilliant

01:05:18.800 episode like

01:05:19.380 this one

01:05:19.800 or our

01:05:20.520 show.

01:05:20.980 All of

01:05:21.340 them go

01:05:21.620 out at

01:05:21.960 7pm

01:05:22.360 UK time.

01:05:23.060 And for

01:05:23.180 those of

01:05:23.580 you who

01:05:23.920 like your

01:05:24.280 trigonometry

01:05:24.880 on the

01:05:25.480 go, it's

01:05:26.260 also available

01:05:26.840 as a podcast.

01:05:28.080 Take care

01:05:28.660 and see you

01:05:29.500 soon, guys.

01:05:32.200 Mara, from

01:05:32.740 your perspective,

01:05:33.680 what could be

01:05:34.180 done to turn

01:05:34.920 the Russians

01:05:35.480 to Western

01:05:36.440 Europe more?

01:05:37.360 As in

01:05:38.160 become more

01:05:38.660 Westernized?

01:05:50.980 Broadway's

01:05:51.500 smash hit,

01:05:52.440 the Neil

01:05:52.760 Diamond

01:05:53.060 musical,

01:05:53.860 A Beautiful

01:05:54.460 Noise,

01:05:55.320 is coming to

01:05:56.040 Toronto.

01:05:56.700 The true

01:05:57.100 story of a

01:05:57.760 kid from

01:05:58.180 Brooklyn destined

01:05:59.060 for something

01:05:59.660 more, featuring

01:06:00.480 all the songs

01:06:01.220 you love,

01:06:01.960 including

01:06:02.340 America,

01:06:03.260 Forever in

01:06:03.720 Blue Jeans

01:06:04.280 and Sweet

01:06:04.940 Caroline.

01:06:05.960 Like Jersey

01:06:06.560 Boys and

01:06:07.200 Beautiful,

01:06:07.780 the next

01:06:08.240 musical mega

01:06:09.120 hit is here,

01:06:10.060 the Neil

01:06:10.460 Diamond

01:06:10.800 musical,

01:06:11.640 A Beautiful

01:06:12.200 Noise,

01:06:12.800 now through

01:06:13.260 June 7,

01:06:14.040 2026 at

01:06:15.340 the Princess

01:06:15.780 of Wales

01:06:16.300 Theatre.

01:06:17.000 Get tickets

01:06:17.480 at

01:06:17.680 Mirvish.com.

TRIGGERnometry - April 04, 2022

Military Intelligence Expert Breaks Down Russian Mindset

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Summary

Transcript