TRIGGERnometry - Niall Ferguson： How Civilizations Collapse

00:00:00.680 We seem to have lost a moral will here in the West.

00:00:04.520 There are many other indicators that we may be trending in the wrong direction.

00:00:08.380 Would you agree with that or are you more optimistic about the future?

00:00:12.040 I think we've just allowed the educational system to move much further to the left than most people realise.

00:00:19.000 They don't pursue their own interests as a generation at all rationally.

00:00:22.720 And the new religions of the secular sphere turned out to be in some ways a good deal worse than the religions they displaced.

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00:01:55.200 Neil, it's such a pleasure to have you back on the show.

00:01:58.300 At a time when a few things are a pleasure, I feel.

00:02:01.480 It's been a difficult time these last few weeks.

00:02:03.700 We're recording this at ARC.

00:02:04.660 There are people who say that we are in the last days of Western civilization.

00:02:11.840 There are people like Ray Dalio who talk about how there are six stages of the collapse of empire.

00:02:15.940 We're in five and a half or whatever.

00:02:17.940 As a historian, what do you make of this and everything that's been happening recently?

00:02:22.780 Well, I agree that it's not a particularly cheerful moment in world history.

00:02:29.420 But in my most recent book, Doom the Politics of Catastrophe, I try to argue that cyclical theories of history should be regarded with a great deal of skepticism because history isn't cyclical.

00:02:42.120 We would love it to be because, of course, that would make it so much easier to understand and indeed to predict.

00:02:48.160 And we would like it to be cyclical because we as individuals have a life cycle.

00:02:53.360 But history doesn't have a life cycle.

00:02:55.480 Empires, civilizations, great powers, they don't.

00:02:58.900 And it's obvious when you actually look at them seriously rather than massaging the data to find a cycle.

00:03:05.140 If you look at historical, long-run historical data, the characteristic feature is a lot of randomness.

00:03:14.480 And that is because disasters, upheavals, are not normally distributed.

00:03:19.380 They're actually often either completely random like the incidents of major wars or they are power law-driven pandemics, earthquakes, that kind of thing.

00:03:29.620 So I'm a big skeptic about cyclical theories of history.

00:03:33.780 Empires rise and fall, yes, sure.

00:03:36.920 But some empires rise and fall really fast.

00:03:40.020 Try Hitler's empire, which doesn't really get going until 36 and is done and rubble by 45.

00:03:47.820 That's nine years.

00:03:50.120 Whereas other empires, think of Rome, you can measure in a millennium.

00:03:55.940 So I don't think it's plausible to say, oh, Western civilization has reached the fifth stage and decline and fall are just around the corner.

00:04:06.440 It's fun and it sells books and there's always a market in the United States, especially for the impending end of the republic.

00:04:13.860 But it just doesn't seem to me that history is like that.

00:04:17.640 OK, well, interesting.

00:04:19.060 Let me try from a different angle then because I think a lot of people might say, look at where we are.

00:04:25.440 The West has accumulated huge debts.

00:04:28.440 The West's authority around the world is being challenged very robustly now, to put it mildly.

00:04:33.100 We seem to have lost a moral will here in the West.

00:04:38.800 There are many other indicators that we may be trending in the wrong direction.

00:04:42.740 Would you agree with that or are you more optimistic about the future?

00:04:46.620 A lot of what you just said is true, but you could also have said that in 1973.

00:04:51.140 So 50 years ago, didn't look great, did it?

00:04:54.180 Because the United States seemed to be losing the Cold War, basically had bailed on South Vietnam, which two years later was gone, poof.

00:05:03.520 And it wasn't exactly going swimmingly in the Middle East.

00:05:07.420 In October 1973, the Soviet Union, we know, was going to decline and fall with great speed in the 1980s.

00:05:18.000 That wasn't obvious in 1973.

00:05:19.820 The inflation problem of 1973 was going to get a lot worse.

00:05:24.900 It's plausibly not going to be as bad this decade.

00:05:29.220 And I could go on.

00:05:30.820 In 1973, America was already in the early phases of the Watergate disaster, which would bring Richard Nixon to resignation to avoid impeachment.

00:05:39.180 If you had asked people 50 years ago, how is it going, there would have been a lot who'd have agreed with the declinists who really thought the game was up.

00:05:51.420 There was a huge amount of division in the United States.

00:05:54.280 And not only in the United States, I'm old enough to remember the 70s.

00:05:58.380 It wasn't a particularly good time in the United Kingdom either.

00:06:02.340 In fact, the UK was the sort of poster child of stagflation at that time.

00:06:07.560 So what am I telling you?

00:06:09.920 Yeah, it's not a great moment, 2023.

00:06:13.340 But I'm not convinced that there's some great cycle at work here.

00:06:19.520 It was pretty bad 50 years ago, too.

00:06:22.120 And seven years later, Ronald Reagan's elected.

00:06:26.600 Nine years later, Berlin Wall comes down.

00:06:29.820 And two years after that, the Soviet Union is gone.

00:06:32.440 So the lesson I would like to draw from history is there's a lot of non-linearity.

00:06:38.500 And you have to be, I think, making a more precise argument than you just did to get me properly worried.

00:06:43.860 So let me try.

00:06:45.020 So what is worrying today is not that we feel terribly divided or so polarized.

00:06:52.000 It's not particularly, I think, that there's a major economic problem, actually.

00:06:59.820 The United States economy is shockingly strong under the circumstances.

00:07:04.820 I think the things that are concerning to me are, number one, China, Russia, Iran, North Korea.

00:07:15.020 are working with increasing cooperation and coordination in ways that are threatening to a number of democracies

00:07:27.000 that the United States and its allies have been backing.

00:07:31.240 Ukraine is one.

00:07:32.140 Israel is another.

00:07:33.420 Taiwan is probably next.

00:07:35.720 And secondly, China's really much bigger economically.

00:07:39.680 It has much greater resources technologically, too, than any previous rival that the United States and its allies faced.

00:07:50.880 The Soviet Union economically was never more than about 42% of GDP relative to the US.

00:07:57.980 Well, China's a lot bigger than that.

00:08:00.340 Certainly in the 80% range, it's above 100% if you do a purchasing power parity calculation.

00:08:06.600 So that's the second point.

00:08:07.700 The third thing that is, I think, concerning is that the United States feels less able to cope with these geopolitical challenges

00:08:19.100 than it was, say, 50 years ago.

00:08:24.060 And I'll give you one specific example of that.

00:08:28.680 It cannot be right that with the economy more or less full employment,

00:08:33.460 there is a deficit of 7% of gross domestic product.

00:08:37.660 And that is going to lead very quickly into some nasty fiscal arithmetic.

00:08:43.820 And to be specific, debt service costs are about to overtake defense spending.

00:08:50.320 And that trend line is really not pretty with interest rates rising and the deficits in excess of 5% of GDP as far as the eye can see.

00:09:01.160 So I think the fiscal situation of the US is a lot worse than it was in 1973.

00:09:06.380 And that means that the US isn't actually able to cope with three military crises at once.

00:09:12.620 Lastly, the military-industrial complex ain't what it was.

00:09:17.160 God, I miss it.

00:09:18.440 I mean, there was a time when the US really was the arsenal of democracy.

00:09:21.340 I made this point some time ago in a Bloomberg column.

00:09:24.380 It's quite a bit behind China, which is now the arsenal of autocracy with manufacturing value added roughly 2x that of the United States.

00:09:34.620 You don't have to go back very far for it to be the other way around.

00:09:37.580 Back in, I think, around 2002, 3, 4, the US was a manufacturing power much greater than China.

00:09:45.100 So in the space of two decades, there's been a real role reversal.

00:09:49.320 In the event of a hot war with China, the US would run out of precision missiles in about five days, more or less.

00:09:57.100 That's a much worse situation than anything 50 years ago.

00:10:00.900 So there are reasons to be worried, but I think you have to be quite precise about what you're worried about.

00:10:04.840 And that's what I'm worried about.

00:10:06.760 Neil, let's broaden this topic out a little bit.

00:10:10.400 How do civilizations actually fall?

00:10:12.360 Well, that's a good question.

00:10:15.920 I think most people imagine in a Toynbee-esque way some kind of inner crisis of will, of morale, of self-belief.

00:10:27.840 They think of it as perhaps a sort of aging process, or maybe it's just entropy at work.

00:10:35.600 If one looks at the decline and fall of the Roman Empire, in Gibbon's telling, it's really a very protracted process.

00:10:43.360 So protracted as to have been imperceptible, I think, for most contemporaries.

00:10:48.800 But in more recent tellings, Brian Ward Perkins, for example, actually the Roman Empire fell apart quite fast, especially the Roman Empire in the West.

00:10:58.760 And I think it was perceptible that civilization had sort of come unstuck.

00:11:03.240 And I think we can understand similar processes if one looks, for example, in Chinese history.

00:11:08.880 The Ming fell apart in the mid-17th century in a way that was very perceptible with very meaningful impact on quality of life.

00:11:19.420 So we know what it's like when a civilization falls apart, the infrastructure stops working, public health gets much worse.

00:11:25.900 It can be caused by war.

00:11:27.580 It can be caused by plague.

00:11:29.240 It can be caused by other forces that are perhaps less discernible.

00:11:35.880 For example, a civilization can fail fiscally.

00:11:40.800 It can fail because its monetary system doesn't work.

00:11:43.320 And it stops being able to deliver surpluses to the population.

00:11:50.180 So I think we understand a little bit how that process works.

00:11:55.040 And when you look at the work of someone like Peter Turchin, there is an attempt through his cryodynamics to construct models of civilizational breakdown and then look for a contemporary analogy.

00:12:11.700 And in his most recent book, Peter argues that the United States is in this kind of a cycle.

00:12:19.140 He emphasizes the overproduction of elites, too many people with, you know, university degrees, not enough for them to do.

00:12:27.040 He, I thought quite brilliantly, forecast a sort of peak in inorganized violence in 2020, which I guess he got lucky with the pandemic and George Floyd and the subsequent mayhem.

00:12:39.680 But it kind of looks quite good as a prediction right now.

00:12:42.240 I guess when you look at all his variables, however, you could make a similar argument about China.

00:12:51.160 In fact, one of the variables demographics looks worse for China.

00:12:55.580 Another of the variables overproduction of educated people looks worse for China.

00:12:59.780 So in my review of his book, which I like, I mean, I respect his work very much, I said, might be true, but it might turn out to be true of China more.

00:13:08.940 A bit like Paul Kennedy's book, you might remember the rise and fall of the great powers, which came out in 1987 and said there is a kind of law of decline where if you're spending too much on one thing and not enough on defense, then your industrial capacity declines.

00:13:27.420 And all of that was supposed to apply to the United States, but it turned out to be more true of the Soviet Union.

00:13:33.480 So we can look for these signs of unraveling, but I think we have to be quite careful not to be so sure that it's a US problem that we miss other worse problems elsewhere.

00:13:47.780 I think the US also has a kind of interesting track record of worrying about its own decline.

00:13:57.840 I think it's a feature, not a bug of the United States to worry about decline or to worry that the republic's somehow going to enter a terminal crisis or that American power is going to wane.

00:14:09.460 Americans love worrying about that.

00:14:10.920 It's one of the things that sells books and gets op-eds printed.

00:14:14.000 And then it happens to the other guy and Americans are like, gee, we won.

00:14:19.140 And then there's the kind of euphoric decade before it's time to start worrying about decline again.

00:14:24.360 Do you not think as well, Neil, that one of the signs that a civilization is in collapse is they no longer believe in the shared myth of the empire?

00:14:34.400 And do you not worry about that with America where it seems that there doesn't seem to be as many people, particularly in the elites, who believe in the project anymore?

00:14:46.160 Well, it depends what you mean by the project.

00:14:47.480 Americans have never been comfortable with the idea of empire for the fairly obvious reason that their project is an anti-imperial one to begin with.

00:14:56.360 So when the United States exercises power, it's an empire in denial.

00:15:02.060 This was the theme of a book I did 20 years ago, Colossus.

00:15:06.160 And I think that book was right about American power.

00:15:09.480 It's not something that can be exercised in the way that, say, British power was, or in fact, the way that most empires have exercised power because Americans are in denial about having that kind of power.

00:15:19.500 When they go into Mesopotamia or into, you know, Afghanistan, somehow it's not empire.

00:15:25.220 But when anybody else does it, it is.

00:15:27.280 So this is a strange thing.

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00:16:28.500 It means that the American project doesn't have as clear a mandate for global policing as other past empires.

00:16:39.320 The American project's really about being a shining city on a hill, building a kind of republic, which is just the best one.

00:16:49.860 And everybody should be filled with admiration and want to copy it.

00:16:54.860 And I think that project is definitely a project that is losing the confidence, especially of young Americans, fast.

00:17:03.780 And they've been aided and abetted in losing confidence by the education system, which is absolutely full of people from the elite of Harvard down to the lowliest kindergarten, saying that the American project was bad.

00:17:21.020 It was founded on white supremacy and generally speaking, most of American history is a tale of woe.

00:17:26.980 That kind of argument is really quite widely believed by young people.

00:17:30.580 So I think if the project is the shining city on a hill, the model for all democracies, that project has lost a lot of belief, particularly amongst young people.

00:17:43.340 Whether they continue to feel that way as they get older is an interesting question.

00:17:51.080 By and large, people are quite inclined to stick with the views they form in their student years.

00:17:57.120 It's surprising how untrue it is that people are kind of lefties when they're young and then they're sort of mugged by reality and become conservatives.

00:18:04.900 That actually tends not to be true.

00:18:06.620 There's quite a lot of continuity in the way people think about the world.

00:18:09.140 And your views are often formed by some major event that occurred when you were in university.

00:18:14.540 I worry a little bit about Generation Z, as Americans say.

00:18:19.900 Their views are on a whole range of issues.

00:18:21.900 It's very, very different from the views of older Americans.

00:18:25.920 And I suspect they won't radically change their worldview as they become more influential, turn up and vote more regularly, become a larger share of the population as the 65s and older die off.

00:18:40.180 I think that could be a big issue.

00:18:42.120 This fundamental skepticism about the American project that's been inculcated in this young generation.

00:18:48.860 Can you flesh that out for us?

00:18:50.360 What do Gen Zers believe that we don't?

00:18:53.060 Well, if you – I mean, let's just take an example that I've been looking at recently.

00:18:56.720 If you ask Americans about the crisis in Israel, about the attacks from Gaza and the Israeli response, the general public is pro-Israel.

00:19:10.800 Older Americans are very pro-Israel.

00:19:12.780 But if you ask Generation Z, they're strongly pro-Palestinian.

00:19:17.220 Like 11% of them are with Israel.

00:19:20.620 And, I don't know, 37% are actually with the Palestinians.

00:19:25.540 That's a huge shift.

00:19:27.280 There are other shifts, too.

00:19:28.460 If you ask Generation Z, what's your preference, socialism or capitalism?

00:19:34.300 Close to, you know, 51%, 52% will say actually pro-socialism.

00:19:39.280 Fuck me.

00:19:39.940 Sorry.

00:19:40.200 As somebody who has experienced socialism.

00:19:43.000 We both have.

00:19:43.680 Yeah.

00:19:44.160 Well, I mean, I grew up in the west of Scotland, which is the nearest thing to socialism that was on offer in the UK,

00:19:51.220 but then spent time in the 1980s in the Soviet Union and in East Germany.

00:19:55.840 Yeah.

00:19:56.260 I mean, I share your expletive delete of this part.

00:20:00.080 That's what's going on.

00:20:01.760 And I could go on.

00:20:04.400 It's interesting that on issues of the environment, young Americans and young Europeans are willing to contemplate quite authoritarian solutions because they feel that the planet is dying and we've only got 10 more years to save it.

00:20:17.360 And therefore, drastic measures are warranted.

00:20:19.160 So, Yasha Monk has been making the argument for some time that there's a lot of illiberalism amongst the young.

00:20:25.600 And that, I think, is concerning.

00:20:27.960 It's not surprising, though, because if one actually looks at the ways in which they're educated, there's a real predominance of content that is more indoctrination than education.

00:20:43.380 People underestimate the extent to which even quite young children are being taught to believe that the United States was founded in white supremacy or that the planet is being killed and the only way to stop it dying is zero growth.

00:21:03.340 I mean, these ideas are quite widespread.

00:21:06.380 And so one can't sort of say there's something terribly wrong with Generation Z.

00:21:09.420 I think we've just allowed the educational system to move much further to the left than most people realize.

00:21:16.300 I had lunch today with an old friend who is a little older than me and went to Princeton.

00:21:24.560 I suppose he must have been there in the 1970s.

00:21:28.860 And I found it quite hard to persuade him that his son won't have the same experience that he had.

00:21:35.360 There's a lot of denial about how far Princeton or Yale or Harvard have swung to the left amongst people who haven't had that much to do with, you know, university life since they graduated.

00:21:49.420 So I think there's something going on here which is pretty worrying.

00:21:52.500 If you tell young Americans, or for that matter, young British kids as happens, you know, your history, your country's history is actually quite bad.

00:22:06.660 I mean, the United States founded on white supremacy.

00:22:09.980 Britain, basically slavery.

00:22:11.520 Industrial Revolution, slavery.

00:22:13.020 If you tell those stories, unsurprisingly impressionable school children think, blimey, that's history.

00:22:22.960 And we should, you know, we should really feel quite bad about that.

00:22:26.380 That's happening.

00:22:27.760 And it happens with parents not quite noticing.

00:22:32.020 A lot of people notice during the pandemic because they're kind of overhearing the Zoom classes and thinking, wait a minute.

00:22:40.200 What did he just say?

00:22:43.240 I'll give you an illustration of what goes on.

00:22:46.780 This is, of course, something that I pay a lot of attention to.

00:22:49.540 And I'm sure a few parents do.

00:22:51.340 But at the school that my sons were attending in California, there was a proposal to have a module on slavery, kind of part of civics or whatever, social studies.

00:23:05.420 And I said, good, I think it's important that you should teach this part of American and indeed world history.

00:23:12.300 But I'd be curious to know what teaching materials you will use.

00:23:15.760 And a teacher very obligingly sent me them and I did a little bit of research and looked at these teacher materials and tried to trace their provenance.

00:23:26.020 And it turned out that they, in fact, originated with the Southern Poverty Law Center, which is one of the most crooked, despicable rackets that ever emanated from the civil rights movement.

00:23:37.700 And it has made a business for itself in recent years by compiling lists of Islamophobes and white supremacists.

00:23:49.560 And they really set themselves up as witch finders general for the dreaded right.

00:23:55.500 And one of their lists actually included my wife, Ayaan Hirsi Ali.

00:23:59.260 She was in the list of Islamophobes.

00:24:01.460 There wasn't a comparable list of Islamic extremists, mind you, that they didn't have a list.

00:24:07.900 Anyway, so I looked a little more closely at the materials, thinking this is a strange source for teaching materials for children.

00:24:15.940 And sure enough, when I got to the takeaways, because you always have takeaways in the teaching plan, the takeaways included the United States was founded on white supremacy.

00:24:23.940 And the situation of African-Americans today is little different from their situation under Jim Crow.

00:24:29.940 Now, I wrote to the teacher and I said, I don't think these are appropriate teaching materials at all.

00:24:35.440 This is not history.

00:24:36.500 This is political activism.

00:24:39.680 And to her credit, she saw my point and they didn't use them.

00:24:43.460 But unless I had been, unless I'd bothered to do that, I might not have noticed.

00:24:48.500 And I think most parents actually aren't aware of what kind of thing gets done as history now.

00:24:53.740 They just assume it's pretty much what it was like when they were at school.

00:24:57.340 History was boring.

00:24:58.040 And for Britain, you did kings and queens.

00:25:00.200 If you're in the United States, you did Lincoln or George Washington.

00:25:03.500 It's not like that anymore.

00:25:04.480 That's all been changed in the same way that history at the major universities has greatly changed in the nature of its content.

00:25:12.260 So we have a generation that I don't think has the same relationship to history as even you.

00:25:18.680 I mean, you're much younger than me.

00:25:19.620 Even you did.

00:25:20.380 Because this is all of relatively recent provenance.

00:25:23.500 Things have moved quite fast in the last 10 years.

00:25:26.140 We'll be back with our guest in a minute.

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00:26:57.420 And now, back to the interview.

00:27:00.400 It's a really profound point because I went to an exhibition at the British Museum about divinity and the female in divinity.

00:27:10.880 And they were describing this one, I think it was a Hindu goddess from 3,000 years ago, as being gender fluid.

00:27:20.400 Yeah.

00:27:21.960 And I was going...

00:27:23.420 Stop being transphobic.

00:27:23.860 And I was...

00:27:25.860 I just couldn't believe it because this is the British Museum.

00:27:30.040 Well, I didn't go to that exhibition.

00:27:33.280 You missed out.

00:27:34.840 I suppose it's conceivable that that's true.

00:27:41.540 I'm not going to get drawn into a bitter argument about gender fluidity in Hindu iconography.

00:27:49.000 What I think goes on a lot is anachronistic labelling, by which I mean our approach to the past has shifted from what I believe it should be,

00:28:03.600 which is that we should understand the past in its own terms, try to understand how people thought in the past,

00:28:08.200 to understand it, to a judgmental mode in which we go to the past in order to look down on previous generations for their racism or for their sexism or whatever it is.

00:28:23.620 And this desire to use terminology from the 21st century in framing historic objects or indeed historical narratives, I think is extremely negative.

00:28:37.680 And it's actually contrary to the spirit of true historical scholarship.

00:28:43.060 The mission of the historian R.G. Collingwood made this argument many years ago in the 1930s is to try to reconstitute past thought,

00:28:51.920 the mental experience of past generations as best we can from what they've left behind,

00:28:57.300 by a kind of process of imagination as well as careful reconstruction,

00:29:02.160 and then to juxtapose that past experience with our own.

00:29:05.220 Not to say how much worse that past experience was, not to say how wicked 18th century people were for their notions of race or their willingness to use unfree labour,

00:29:21.180 but to understand it, to try to see the way the world was seen by those now long dead people.

00:29:27.760 It might also help us to realise that there is a great deal of unfree labour in the world today,

00:29:34.860 but very little of it in, say, the British Isles of North America.

00:29:40.680 So this process where we regard the role of the history teacher as being essentially to pass judgment on the values of the past,

00:29:50.400 I think is completely misconceived.

00:29:52.000 And it's the condescension towards posterity that I thought we were trying to get away from as historians.

00:30:00.600 Neil, you talk about Gen Z and their education.

00:30:05.180 I grew up in a crumbling empire in the Soviet Union, which also attempted to indoctrinate as children.

00:30:12.180 But I don't remember, I remember my parents warning me, you know, you're going to go to school and you're going to be taught all this crazy stuff.

00:30:18.940 So get ready, they're going to tell you about Pavlik Marozov and they're going to tell you about this and that and whatever.

00:30:23.320 And by the time I arrived at school, I was rather inoculated.

00:30:26.740 And many young people were.

00:30:29.460 And as comedians, we know that I think ideas are like jokes in that in order for them to really land with the listener,

00:30:36.700 there has to be something about their experience that matches what they're being told.

00:30:41.200 And I wonder if you think that the economic circumstances facing young people, the extraordinary price of housing, for example,

00:30:49.380 the inability, therefore, to pair up and have families,

00:30:52.620 the sense that many people now have that they're almost certainly not going to benefit from the sort of liberal, democratic, capitalistic promise,

00:31:02.140 which is that we will live better than our parents.

00:31:04.940 Is that why these ideas are as persuasive as they are to young people today?

00:31:08.800 It's possible, though I think one has to be a bit careful about inferring that young people are protesting in support of Hamas

00:31:24.100 because they can't get onto the housing ladder in London.

00:31:27.480 I mean, it's possible.

00:31:28.400 Well, you've made my argument sound ridiculous, which I think is slightly unfair.

00:31:31.440 No, I didn't mean to do that.

00:31:32.760 What I meant to say was that the radicalism of the young extends along quite a broad front.

00:31:38.240 What's interesting is that it doesn't really focus terribly much on the economics that you mentioned.

00:31:43.440 If young people really were concerned about the cost of housing in, say, the southeast of England,

00:31:50.720 then you'd have thought that they'd spend a lot of time researching housing policy

00:31:56.940 and campaigning for reductions in the Greenbelt and the construction of more housing.

00:32:02.460 But they do the exact opposite.

00:32:03.640 They oppose that because the radical support for environmental movements,

00:32:10.320 extinction, rebellion, etc., actually points them in the opposite direction.

00:32:15.080 And you'll find young people tying themselves to trees to stop further development in the Greenbelt.

00:32:20.900 So I don't think if these economic issues are what's at work,

00:32:26.760 that young people are pursuing their own interests very competently.

00:32:31.580 No, they're not.

00:32:31.980 But let me make the connection that I was trying to make,

00:32:34.460 and perhaps you can address where the nihilism is therefore coming from.

00:32:37.360 Because the argument I would make is if you don't have a bright future, as you perceive it,

00:32:44.320 it is quite natural to retreat into some kind of cope, as people now say on the Internet.

00:32:50.880 And the cope might be that we care about things that we can't control

00:32:55.800 because we can't control the things that we care about, i.e. housing.

00:32:59.380 I mean, I can tell you, even for our generation, the housing issue is massive.

00:33:03.000 And no amount of researching Greenbelt policy is going to get someone my age on the housing ladder

00:33:09.040 if they're not already at this point.

00:33:11.380 And we know, obviously, as you do and I do, that becoming a parent, for example,

00:33:16.020 massively changes how you see the world.

00:33:17.960 So there's actually getting on a property ladder.

00:33:20.740 Young people to whom that's not available are quite likely to tend towards nihilism, I would argue.

00:33:27.960 You disagree, perhaps.

00:33:29.160 So where is the nihilism coming from if not from there?

00:33:31.600 Well, I think there is a couple of points that are worth making.

00:33:36.800 First is, if young people are suffering from the consequences of policies

00:33:44.040 that have essentially rigged the property market or the economy more broadly

00:33:49.880 in favour of older generations,

00:33:52.800 then they ought to be attracted to the more radical proposals,

00:33:56.420 not just to reform the housing situation, but also to reform the welfare state.

00:34:03.320 Because the main problem that young people face is that

00:34:05.800 the intergenerational balance is simply not being maintained.

00:34:11.620 The liabilities of welfare states in most Western countries

00:34:15.700 are hugely skewed in favour of the elderly.

00:34:19.060 It's the young who will pick up the tab for the very generous forms of welfare

00:34:22.740 that the baby boomers essentially voted for themselves.

00:34:26.240 And so if it were about economics,

00:34:28.760 you'd have thought that more young people would be,

00:34:31.280 as Hayek wrongly predicted,

00:34:33.900 arguing for radical reform of entitlements.

00:34:37.640 I mean, Hayek even says in the Constitution of Liberty

00:34:39.660 that the young will finally get so impatient with the elderly

00:34:42.320 that they'll kind of herd them into camps.

00:34:44.940 None of that has happened.

00:34:46.020 The young defer unwittingly, I think,

00:34:48.460 but they defer to the logic of the welfare state.

00:34:51.820 The young are overwhelming on the left.

00:34:53.560 They support Labour of the Conservatives,

00:34:56.460 Democrats of the Republicans massively.

00:34:58.300 But that's bizarre because actually Labour and the Democrats

00:35:01.840 are the people most committed to preserving the welfare state

00:35:04.860 with its current transfers from the relatively young to the elderly.

00:35:09.100 So I don't think young people understand their economic interests at all well.

00:35:12.560 Now, you may be right that faced with this problem,

00:35:18.460 they retreat into nihilism because they can't bring themselves

00:35:21.500 to do what would be rational,

00:35:22.980 which would be to support the Centre for Policy Studies position on housing

00:35:26.940 or, you know, the position of Republicans

00:35:29.920 or older position of Republicans for entitlement reform.

00:35:34.840 They may just retreat into nihilism

00:35:36.300 because embracing those conservative solutions

00:35:39.820 is just too odious to them.

00:35:41.620 There is another possibility, though,

00:35:43.980 which is that they are, as I was trying to argue,

00:35:48.420 drawn into a series of ideological positions

00:35:51.200 through their education.

00:35:53.500 And these ideological positions

00:35:55.200 lead to what used to be called on the left false consciousness.

00:35:59.260 They think the problem is big oil.

00:36:03.120 They think the problem is capitalism.

00:36:05.760 They think the problem is settler colonialism

00:36:10.800 because they get given these phrases from school and in university.

00:36:17.400 And the net effect is that they don't pursue their own interests as a generation at all rationally.

00:36:23.920 And I made this point in the Great Degeneration back in 2012,

00:36:29.940 that if the young really understood their self-interest,

00:36:32.320 in the US they would all have been in favour of Paul Ryan's programme of entitlement reform.

00:36:38.000 But almost no young people voted for Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan.

00:36:41.140 Neil, do you think part of the problem is, as well,

00:36:45.020 is that these narratives that they're fed,

00:36:47.160 particularly when it comes to history,

00:36:48.860 are so incredibly powerful

00:36:50.480 and they're so simplistic

00:36:52.080 that they're far easier to ingest

00:36:54.180 than actually what is a very unpleasant truth

00:36:58.140 is, as my dad always likes to tell me,

00:37:01.060 there's no black and white lad,

00:37:02.300 there's only a murky shade of grey.

00:37:04.820 Well, I do think...

00:37:06.180 I can see why you came out the way you did, mate.

00:37:10.340 It's a good point.

00:37:11.940 My soul is from Wigan.

00:37:13.680 Yeah, I mean, I think having grown up in Glasgow,

00:37:16.880 I was receptive to that kind of argument, too.

00:37:20.540 When the entire city is grey,

00:37:22.840 it seems quite plausible.

00:37:24.500 And there aren't that many moments in history

00:37:26.340 when you can say, unequivocally,

00:37:29.540 good guys, bad guys.

00:37:31.320 I made this point in The War of the World

00:37:33.100 that we end up winning World War II

00:37:35.020 with Stalin doing a huge amount of the fighting.

00:37:37.840 I hardly need to tell you this,

00:37:39.520 but the Soviet Union is as brutal

00:37:41.280 as a totalitarian regime as Nazi Germany.

00:37:44.280 And so even that's a tainted victory.

00:37:46.980 And that's one of the things

00:37:48.160 that an older generation have long clung to

00:37:50.620 as the one thing we did

00:37:52.080 that was absolutely right,

00:37:53.600 except from the vantage point

00:37:54.660 of people in Eastern Europe.

00:37:56.040 It was anything but that.

00:37:57.900 So I think it's partly that

00:38:01.040 the stories are attractive.

00:38:03.960 The story of the imminent end of the world

00:38:05.580 is one of the most attractive there is.

00:38:08.540 That's been a part of the great monotheistic religions.

00:38:12.180 People are drawn to disastrous outcomes.

00:38:15.820 It's why science fiction is a popular genre.

00:38:18.960 And so if you tell people

00:38:20.000 that there is this imminent extinction event

00:38:22.300 and the day after tomorrow,

00:38:24.600 everything's just going to be on fire

00:38:26.080 and everybody dying from climate change,

00:38:28.040 people are very receptive to that kind of argument.

00:38:31.340 And it's quite hard to argue against it

00:38:33.640 because it's approached in a quasi-religious spirit.

00:38:37.060 So if you offer any kind of criticism,

00:38:39.400 you're a denier, a heretic, a blasphemer.

00:38:42.200 So people are drawn into what is in fact

00:38:44.080 a kind of secular religion,

00:38:46.320 the impending end of days,

00:38:48.300 and we must prepare for it.

00:38:49.460 How should we prepare for it?

00:38:50.660 By fasting, so we become vegans.

00:38:53.220 We should be celibate,

00:38:54.520 so we shouldn't have children.

00:38:55.320 And so you essentially have a kind of secular religion.

00:38:59.200 And this is something that Vogelin and others saw

00:39:03.000 as a problem in the 20th century,

00:39:04.500 that in the wake of the predominance of Christianity,

00:39:08.760 people didn't believe in nothing.

00:39:11.300 They believed in anything.

00:39:12.220 And the new religions of the secular sphere

00:39:15.340 turned out to be in some ways

00:39:17.380 a good deal worse than the religions they displaced.

00:39:20.740 Well, we're here again

00:39:21.700 with the kind of strange religion

00:39:23.820 of the impending end of the world.

00:39:26.640 And I think it's just,

00:39:27.780 it is much more appealing than it's complicated,

00:39:30.600 which is, you know,

00:39:31.600 the least exciting combination of words

00:39:34.240 and the thing that historians

00:39:36.360 are compulsively driven to say

00:39:39.020 at the beginning of almost any answer

00:39:40.840 they give to a question.

00:39:42.720 I do think there is black and white though,

00:39:45.240 and here I'm going to come back at Wigan.

00:39:49.480 I think there is a very profound difference

00:39:52.220 between a free society

00:39:53.480 in which one can speak freely

00:39:55.300 and write what one thinks

00:39:59.160 and meet and form associations

00:40:01.400 with whomever one likes

00:40:02.960 and an unfree society

00:40:04.220 in which those things are highly dangerous

00:40:06.520 and indeed prohibited

00:40:08.640 and may lead you into a jail,

00:40:11.740 even a labor camp.

00:40:12.760 That's a really big difference.

00:40:15.320 What is wrong with kids today,

00:40:19.100 and now I do sound like the old fart

00:40:23.300 that I've become,

00:40:24.860 is that they have no very clear idea

00:40:27.220 of what an unfree society is like.

00:40:30.280 Hence, queers for Palestine,

00:40:33.640 you know, when radical...

00:40:35.500 We're doing a fundraiser, by the way.

00:40:36.880 We're going to send them all over.

00:40:38.080 We've got a T-shirt for you now.

00:40:39.300 It's kind of bizarre,

00:40:41.660 and I've always said it was bizarre.

00:40:43.260 I mean, I remember saying to my wife

00:40:45.860 when we lived in Cambridge, Massachusetts,

00:40:47.620 wouldn't it be funny

00:40:48.320 if all the people who hate me

00:40:49.560 and all the people who hate you

00:40:50.720 simultaneously protested outside our house

00:40:53.420 and the Islamists found themselves

00:40:55.000 right next to the, you know,

00:40:57.460 the trans activists?

00:40:58.320 How would that go?

00:40:59.640 We'd be able to sneak out the back

00:41:01.440 as they fell on one another.

00:41:02.620 It's a curious thing

00:41:06.200 that people don't understand

00:41:09.020 what it's like to live under Hamas,

00:41:11.440 and they don't really understand

00:41:12.760 what the Iranian revolution aspires to do.

00:41:16.100 They don't understand

00:41:16.960 what it was like to live

00:41:18.140 in Stalin's Soviet Union

00:41:20.300 or in Mao's China.

00:41:22.140 If they understood that,

00:41:23.540 then they might be more reluctant

00:41:24.940 to do the kind of things

00:41:27.000 that many students attempted

00:41:29.060 to do these days,

00:41:30.100 like write letters of denunciation,

00:41:32.600 call for people to be fired

00:41:34.260 for things that they've said.

00:41:35.760 It's amazing how totalitarian behaviours

00:41:37.680 can creep into a free society.

00:41:41.220 And I think we've just failed

00:41:42.540 to communicate unfreedom

00:41:44.380 as a phenomenon to this generation.

00:41:47.160 And maybe that's just our bad

00:41:51.020 as a generation,

00:41:51.920 that we didn't get across

00:41:53.460 to the Generation Z kids

00:41:57.340 what it was like.

00:41:58.820 Like, I kind of used to toy

00:42:01.580 with the idea of, you know,

00:42:03.940 trips to North Korea.

00:42:05.640 Because I don't think

00:42:07.160 you ever feel quite the same

00:42:08.920 about freedom

00:42:10.180 once you've been

00:42:11.460 in an unfree society.

00:42:13.940 Exactly.

00:42:14.340 And this is, I think,

00:42:15.120 why we started Trigonometry

00:42:16.380 and been talking

00:42:17.000 to so many people about it,

00:42:18.080 because we both know

00:42:19.840 what that's like

00:42:20.520 from our various experiences.

00:42:22.520 I was going to ask you

00:42:23.400 as you were talking

00:42:24.020 right at the end about this,

00:42:25.180 because do you think

00:42:26.700 this maybe is a cyclical

00:42:28.420 element of history?

00:42:29.340 It seems that these ideas,

00:42:31.160 mutated as they are,

00:42:34.100 are essentially what we had

00:42:36.000 in the Soviet Union,

00:42:37.020 but along slightly different lines.

00:42:39.860 And it just takes

00:42:41.040 a couple of generations

00:42:41.940 for us to forget.

00:42:43.820 And then we're back

00:42:44.740 to square one.

00:42:45.460 And then the power

00:42:47.300 of these ideas

00:42:48.400 is they sound so good.

00:42:50.840 All things to all men,

00:42:52.560 equality, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.

00:42:54.840 Is it just, you know,

00:42:56.700 three generations and bam,

00:42:58.580 we're back to square one?

00:43:00.240 Well, I think the kind of amnesia

00:43:03.280 cycle of history that,

00:43:05.440 you know, your grandfather

00:43:07.900 actually fought,

00:43:09.780 my grandfather's fought

00:43:10.900 in the World Wars,

00:43:11.940 and my father and my mother

00:43:15.200 very clearly remembered

00:43:16.760 being children in that time.

00:43:18.880 And I grew up

00:43:20.440 in the 1960s and 1970s

00:43:22.020 with the war

00:43:23.480 as this sort of

00:43:25.060 ubiquitous collective memory,

00:43:28.060 which even constructed

00:43:29.200 how we played

00:43:29.980 in the playground.

00:43:30.800 And after a certain point,

00:43:32.460 it just sort of wears off.

00:43:34.520 And, you know,

00:43:35.240 I'll give you an example.

00:43:36.460 I don't think anybody

00:43:37.140 watches black and white

00:43:38.140 movies anymore.

00:43:39.780 Whereas I did.

00:43:40.460 I can't get my children

00:43:42.080 to watch them.

00:43:43.440 But if you don't watch

00:43:44.400 black and white movies,

00:43:45.660 it's really quite hard

00:43:46.620 to properly to connect

00:43:48.180 with the Second World War

00:43:49.640 because so much of the

00:43:50.660 Great World War II movies

00:43:51.940 are black and white.

00:43:54.160 So that may be true.

00:43:56.440 I think the role of

00:43:58.220 the historian,

00:43:59.500 the role as I understand it,

00:44:01.120 is to counter that amnesia

00:44:03.720 by as vividly as possible

00:44:06.380 conveying

00:44:07.180 what the experience

00:44:08.940 of the Bolshevik Revolution

00:44:10.320 and its aftermath

00:44:11.260 were like.

00:44:12.020 And I think those of us

00:44:12.920 who do the job seriously,

00:44:14.840 I'm thinking here

00:44:15.420 of Frank de Curta's work

00:44:16.560 on China under Mao

00:44:18.100 or Orlando Fijis

00:44:19.660 and before him

00:44:20.420 Richard Pipes

00:44:21.540 on the Russian Revolution,

00:44:22.300 the people who do

00:44:22.920 the job well

00:44:23.820 can transcend the amnesia

00:44:26.560 of the fourth generation

00:44:28.080 by saying,

00:44:29.460 yeah,

00:44:29.660 I know it's a long time ago

00:44:31.040 and you don't even,

00:44:32.920 you never even met

00:44:33.680 your great-grandfather

00:44:34.580 who was fighting the Germans

00:44:36.420 or fighting the Japanese,

00:44:37.580 but you need to know this.

00:44:40.160 I don't know quite why

00:44:41.040 we failed so miserably

00:44:42.320 when for a time

00:44:43.820 it felt as if

00:44:44.860 Hitler and Henry VIII

00:44:46.480 were what kids

00:44:48.220 in British schools

00:44:49.180 were taught.

00:44:52.000 Somehow all that teaching

00:44:54.020 about the Holocaust

00:44:55.160 has failed

00:44:57.240 if there are

00:44:58.900 Generation Z students

00:45:01.620 chanting

00:45:02.240 from the river

00:45:03.500 to the sea

00:45:04.140 Palestine will be free

00:45:05.200 apparently oblivious

00:45:06.360 to the fact

00:45:06.800 that that implies

00:45:07.420 a second Holocaust.

00:45:09.000 So you kind of

00:45:09.860 find yourself asking

00:45:10.740 where did all that

00:45:12.300 Holocaust history

00:45:13.700 get us?

00:45:14.660 We clearly didn't

00:45:16.180 get the message across

00:45:17.560 about why Hitler

00:45:19.640 was bad.

00:45:20.740 That somehow

00:45:21.800 got lost in translation.

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00:46:27.540 Do you think

00:46:29.680 part of the

00:46:30.140 problem is

00:46:30.680 that we get

00:46:31.740 taught about

00:46:32.260 the Nazis

00:46:32.840 but we just

00:46:35.300 associate

00:46:35.960 anti-Semitism

00:46:36.800 with the Nazis

00:46:38.020 and that's it.

00:46:39.200 So as a result

00:46:40.860 of that

00:46:41.300 young people

00:46:42.120 only see

00:46:43.320 anti-Semitism

00:46:44.140 through that

00:46:44.840 particular lens

00:46:45.660 and then they

00:46:46.720 can't make

00:46:47.280 the connections

00:46:47.840 elsewhere.

00:46:48.880 That may be

00:46:49.760 right

00:46:50.040 that in a sense

00:46:52.400 we've compartmentalised

00:46:53.780 it so that

00:46:54.620 well that was

00:46:55.740 that was the

00:46:56.720 Nazis

00:46:57.120 and it

00:46:59.000 somehow

00:46:59.360 doesn't

00:46:59.880 apply to

00:47:01.480 Palestinian

00:47:02.800 Islamic

00:47:03.280 jihad.

00:47:05.240 I guess

00:47:06.260 that's possible

00:47:06.980 but I do

00:47:08.060 feel as if

00:47:08.640 collectively

00:47:09.380 there's been

00:47:10.360 a huge failure

00:47:11.120 in historical

00:47:11.700 education

00:47:12.260 and if we'd

00:47:14.340 done a better

00:47:14.820 job

00:47:15.420 there would

00:47:16.180 be a greater

00:47:16.760 allergy

00:47:17.340 to symptoms

00:47:19.540 of totalitarianism

00:47:20.900 such as

00:47:21.880 calls for

00:47:22.820 Israel to be

00:47:24.320 wiped from

00:47:24.840 the map

00:47:25.420 or the

00:47:26.120 kind of

00:47:26.740 propaganda

00:47:28.640 that emanates

00:47:29.500 from Iran

00:47:30.500 we should be

00:47:31.940 young people

00:47:32.680 should be

00:47:32.940 much more

00:47:33.460 allergic to

00:47:34.260 that than

00:47:34.820 they seem

00:47:35.620 to be

00:47:36.160 and that

00:47:37.340 I think

00:47:37.740 may be

00:47:38.200 because

00:47:38.920 in teaching

00:47:40.260 the history

00:47:41.820 of the

00:47:42.580 Third Reich

00:47:43.480 we

00:47:44.940 failed

00:47:46.580 not just

00:47:48.080 to make

00:47:49.160 clear that

00:47:49.740 it had a

00:47:50.220 general relevance

00:47:51.120 I mean

00:47:52.120 I've always

00:47:52.480 felt that

00:47:52.940 a really

00:47:53.620 important

00:47:54.280 feature

00:47:55.080 of

00:47:56.340 historiography

00:47:58.220 to counter

00:47:59.180 is the

00:47:59.900 notion of

00:48:00.300 a German

00:48:00.760 special way

00:48:01.420 that somehow

00:48:01.900 it could only

00:48:02.580 really have

00:48:03.380 happened in

00:48:03.820 Germany

00:48:04.100 and a lot

00:48:04.580 of my

00:48:04.800 early work

00:48:05.240 was designed

00:48:05.780 to make

00:48:07.480 the exact

00:48:08.720 opposite point

00:48:09.520 that there was

00:48:09.900 nothing really

00:48:10.540 that different

00:48:11.380 about Germany

00:48:12.140 and it could

00:48:13.960 have happened

00:48:14.440 elsewhere

00:48:14.860 that that's

00:48:16.060 a central

00:48:16.440 theme of

00:48:16.820 the war

00:48:17.120 of the

00:48:17.340 world

00:48:17.500 that the

00:48:17.800 ideas

00:48:18.280 that Hitler

00:48:18.980 bundles

00:48:20.620 together

00:48:21.080 are not

00:48:21.960 made in

00:48:22.380 Germany

00:48:22.720 the ideas

00:48:23.740 about

00:48:24.220 miscegenation

00:48:24.980 come from

00:48:25.520 the United

00:48:26.340 States

00:48:26.900 the ideas

00:48:27.660 about

00:48:28.000 hereditary

00:48:28.680 disease

00:48:29.440 requiring to

00:48:30.000 be controlled

00:48:30.360 by sterilization

00:48:31.180 that had

00:48:31.520 actually been

00:48:31.920 put into

00:48:32.320 action in

00:48:32.700 the United

00:48:32.980 States

00:48:33.280 before Hitler

00:48:33.840 came to

00:48:34.220 power

00:48:34.480 so we

00:48:35.620 need

00:48:35.940 I think

00:48:36.560 we failed

00:48:37.040 to convey

00:48:37.560 that there

00:48:37.980 was a

00:48:38.320 general

00:48:38.960 problem

00:48:39.520 which Hitler

00:48:40.540 exemplified

00:48:41.700 we turned

00:48:42.740 it into a

00:48:43.240 German problem

00:48:43.900 which Hitler

00:48:44.780 exemplified

00:48:45.800 and the

00:48:46.860 second thing

00:48:47.280 I think

00:48:47.580 that we

00:48:47.900 failed to

00:48:48.600 do

00:48:48.940 is to

00:48:49.900 come up

00:48:50.200 with an

00:48:50.460 explanation

00:48:51.040 of Hitler's

00:48:51.620 rise

00:48:51.880 that was

00:48:52.200 really

00:48:52.640 compelling

00:48:53.240 and convincing

00:48:54.220 there are

00:48:55.080 lots of

00:48:55.440 theories

00:48:55.740 about the

00:48:56.360 rise of

00:48:56.720 Hitler

00:48:56.920 and they

00:48:57.240 get

00:48:57.900 taught to

00:48:58.520 children

00:48:59.800 at least

00:49:00.240 in some

00:49:01.480 schools

00:49:01.800 still today

00:49:02.520 and it's

00:49:03.260 usually

00:49:03.500 well there

00:49:03.820 was this

00:49:04.080 terrible

00:49:04.300 economic

00:49:04.640 crisis

00:49:05.080 and

00:49:05.580 unemployment

00:49:06.280 went up

00:49:06.660 very high

00:49:07.240 and then

00:49:07.800 the Nazis

00:49:08.400 came to

00:49:08.800 power

00:49:09.140 that's a

00:49:11.360 kind of

00:49:11.900 standard

00:49:12.320 school textbook

00:49:13.400 version

00:49:13.920 it's

00:49:14.520 really

00:49:14.820 unconvincing

00:49:15.380 because

00:49:15.560 unemployment

00:49:15.940 went sky

00:49:16.800 high in the

00:49:17.260 United States

00:49:17.840 as well

00:49:18.300 and they

00:49:18.620 got

00:49:18.860 Roosevelt

00:49:19.500 I don't

00:49:20.740 think that

00:49:21.220 the explanations

00:49:22.280 for the rise

00:49:22.940 of Hitler

00:49:23.380 have worked

00:49:24.260 at all well

00:49:24.980 the conventional

00:49:25.620 mainstream

00:49:26.040 explanations

00:49:26.680 that we

00:49:27.180 used to

00:49:27.520 teach

00:49:28.020 children

00:49:28.820 because the

00:49:29.760 truth of

00:49:30.440 the story

00:49:31.400 is

00:49:32.140 that the

00:49:33.480 Weimar Republic

00:49:34.240 had this

00:49:34.840 very perfect

00:49:35.600 constitution

00:49:36.300 it was very

00:49:37.460 an impressive

00:49:38.340 intellectual

00:49:38.880 achievement

00:49:39.320 it was designed

00:49:40.060 to be

00:49:40.560 the leading

00:49:41.560 welfare state

00:49:42.560 of the

00:49:43.620 world

00:49:44.000 and it

00:49:45.280 failed

00:49:45.900 disastrously

00:49:46.780 it produced

00:49:47.360 first hyperinflation

00:49:48.440 and then

00:49:48.940 a crashing

00:49:49.860 depression

00:49:50.340 this alienated

00:49:51.500 many middle

00:49:52.480 class Germans

00:49:53.560 from the whole

00:49:54.120 project of

00:49:54.800 democracy

00:49:55.260 and it made

00:49:56.700 them highly

00:49:57.060 susceptible

00:49:57.540 to a

00:49:58.840 charismatic

00:49:59.200 leader

00:49:59.760 whose

00:50:00.560 critical

00:50:01.940 feature

00:50:02.460 was that

00:50:03.300 he was the

00:50:03.740 most gifted

00:50:04.360 demagogue

00:50:05.240 of modern

00:50:05.980 times

00:50:06.480 not enough

00:50:08.260 of the

00:50:09.060 recent

00:50:09.500 scholarship

00:50:10.080 on Hitler

00:50:11.800 emphasises

00:50:13.340 that point

00:50:14.020 the demonic

00:50:15.620 power

00:50:16.260 of his

00:50:18.020 oratory

00:50:18.660 and the

00:50:20.300 personality

00:50:20.760 cult

00:50:21.100 that quickly

00:50:21.560 formed

00:50:21.920 around him

00:50:22.520 that's the

00:50:24.040 really interesting

00:50:24.760 thing

00:50:25.060 there were

00:50:25.320 lots of

00:50:25.620 fascist

00:50:25.960 parties

00:50:26.380 Europe

00:50:27.180 had

00:50:27.460 fascist

00:50:28.080 parties

00:50:28.380 just about

00:50:28.840 in every

00:50:29.140 country

00:50:29.520 none of

00:50:30.660 them

00:50:30.980 other than

00:50:31.540 Germany

00:50:31.980 had

00:50:32.680 Hitler

00:50:33.080 and so

00:50:34.060 the real

00:50:34.480 sort of

00:50:35.060 story is

00:50:35.500 not that

00:50:35.840 Germany

00:50:36.060 had very

00:50:36.380 high

00:50:36.540 unemployment

00:50:36.900 the story

00:50:37.960 is that

00:50:38.260 it had

00:50:38.660 the most

00:50:39.060 charismatic

00:50:39.720 demonic

00:50:40.820 of all

00:50:41.740 the fascist

00:50:42.500 leaders

00:50:42.820 and we

00:50:44.100 ought to

00:50:44.420 therefore

00:50:44.720 be really

00:50:45.440 worried about

00:50:46.240 charisma

00:50:47.040 as a force

00:50:47.780 in politics

00:50:48.420 because it

00:50:48.960 can so

00:50:49.380 easily lead

00:50:50.160 even a

00:50:51.000 highly educated

00:50:51.700 people

00:50:52.020 which the

00:50:52.380 Germans

00:50:52.620 certainly

00:50:53.020 were in

00:50:53.500 the early

00:50:54.340 1930s

00:50:55.160 down a

00:50:56.120 path that

00:50:56.640 goes really

00:50:57.380 fast from

00:50:58.440 an election

00:50:59.860 victory to

00:51:01.200 Auschwitz

00:51:01.860 that's the

00:51:02.740 lesson I

00:51:03.400 don't think

00:51:03.820 we properly

00:51:04.340 conveyed

00:51:04.880 Thomas

00:51:05.680 Sol makes

00:51:06.140 the very

00:51:06.500 same

00:51:06.740 point

00:51:07.120 I think

00:51:07.560 in

00:51:07.700 black

00:51:08.000 rednecks

00:51:08.400 and white

00:51:08.680 liberals

00:51:08.940 he has a

00:51:09.300 whole chapter

00:51:09.780 on the

00:51:10.120 Germans

00:51:10.480 excuse me

00:51:12.280 and he

00:51:12.460 makes the

00:51:12.760 same point

00:51:13.140 I want to

00:51:13.940 ask you a

00:51:14.360 couple of

00:51:14.980 unrelated

00:51:16.080 things to

00:51:16.740 the end

00:51:16.980 of the

00:51:17.200 world

00:51:17.440 everything is

00:51:19.320 related to

00:51:19.800 the end

00:51:20.020 of the world

00:51:20.440 not everything

00:51:21.200 I'm curious

00:51:22.600 I don't know

00:51:23.340 if you saw

00:51:23.780 this I don't

00:51:24.260 know how much

00:51:24.560 you use

00:51:24.860 social media

00:51:25.480 there has

00:51:25.940 been a

00:51:26.720 meme going

00:51:27.380 around of

00:51:28.180 women asking

00:51:29.340 their partners

00:51:30.360 male partners

00:51:31.260 how often they

00:51:32.360 think about the

00:51:33.000 Roman Empire

00:51:33.560 and it turns

00:51:34.060 out that the

00:51:34.540 average man

00:51:35.080 allegedly thinks

00:51:35.960 about it about

00:51:36.480 73 times a

00:51:37.540 day

00:51:37.780 wasn't quite as

00:51:40.220 often as that

00:51:40.860 I'm exaggerating

00:51:42.020 for comedic

00:51:42.600 purposes

00:51:42.940 but why do you

00:51:45.520 think we care

00:51:46.600 so much about

00:51:47.580 the Roman Empire

00:51:48.200 why is it such

00:51:48.980 an interest to

00:51:49.760 us here at

00:51:50.580 least in the

00:51:50.960 West

00:51:51.240 well first of

00:51:54.140 all I highly

00:51:55.080 doubt that men

00:51:56.400 think about the

00:51:56.980 Roman Empire that

00:51:57.720 frequently and

00:51:58.680 I'm deeply

00:51:59.640 skeptical about

00:52:00.580 whatever research

00:52:01.460 produced this

00:52:02.220 meme because

00:52:04.640 it implies

00:52:05.260 that men

00:52:06.080 think at

00:52:06.640 all about

00:52:08.900 anything

00:52:09.360 Ferguson's a

00:52:10.500 feminist now

00:52:11.020 I'm not sure

00:52:11.800 that there's

00:52:13.240 all that much

00:52:13.820 thinking going

00:52:14.440 on about

00:52:15.100 any empire

00:52:17.160 or indeed

00:52:17.780 about anything

00:52:18.980 much beyond

00:52:19.580 the football

00:52:20.100 no to be

00:52:21.440 serious

00:52:21.840 in the case

00:52:24.260 of the United

00:52:24.660 States

00:52:25.400 which I think

00:52:28.220 is where the

00:52:28.620 research came

00:52:29.960 from

00:52:30.320 Rome is this

00:52:32.360 implicit point

00:52:34.520 of comparison

00:52:35.280 and it's there

00:52:37.040 in the

00:52:37.820 architecture

00:52:38.480 the project

00:52:39.480 was in

00:52:40.100 some ways

00:52:41.080 as much a

00:52:43.000 Roman as

00:52:43.460 an Athenian

00:52:43.920 one to create

00:52:44.660 a republic

00:52:45.540 and so

00:52:47.340 Americans have

00:52:48.260 this uneasy

00:52:48.920 feeling that

00:52:49.920 they might be

00:52:50.460 Rome

00:52:50.740 and there's

00:52:51.160 lots of

00:52:51.680 books and

00:52:52.460 articles that

00:52:53.340 feed that

00:52:53.960 theory

00:52:54.380 not to

00:52:55.320 mention movies

00:52:56.260 from Kirk

00:52:57.440 Douglas to

00:52:58.080 Russell Crowe

00:52:59.080 it's quite

00:53:00.120 surprising how

00:53:01.060 much Roman

00:53:02.320 content

00:53:03.140 Hollywood

00:53:04.000 produced over

00:53:05.460 the decades

00:53:06.180 so I think

00:53:07.400 that's why in

00:53:08.180 the United

00:53:08.500 States the

00:53:09.160 Roman Empire

00:53:09.660 keeps coming

00:53:10.860 up

00:53:11.300 you only need

00:53:12.220 to go to

00:53:12.560 Washington to

00:53:13.400 see what is

00:53:14.720 it about this

00:53:15.140 architecture that

00:53:15.860 seems familiar

00:53:16.620 that's probably

00:53:17.760 why I doubt

00:53:18.720 very much that

00:53:19.440 I'd be very

00:53:20.160 sceptical that the

00:53:20.920 average Englishman

00:53:21.720 thinks about the

00:53:22.400 Roman Empire

00:53:23.020 once a day or

00:53:24.300 even once a

00:53:24.980 year

00:53:25.260 and why is

00:53:26.660 it that it's

00:53:27.960 a Roman Empire

00:53:28.740 we tend to

00:53:29.240 talk about and

00:53:29.700 not the Greek

00:53:30.340 Empire because

00:53:31.080 the pretty cogent

00:53:32.900 argument can be

00:53:33.520 made that these

00:53:34.080 are where these

00:53:34.580 ideas originated

00:53:35.340 from

00:53:35.820 well I think

00:53:37.380 you only need

00:53:39.060 to look at

00:53:39.620 the Hollywood

00:53:40.920 list of

00:53:43.800 books about

00:53:44.760 ancient Greece

00:53:45.640 to see why

00:53:46.460 there aren't

00:53:46.960 many

00:53:47.340 Rome has

00:53:49.580 I think a

00:53:50.740 more straightforward

00:53:51.420 storyline

00:53:53.060 I mean the

00:53:54.820 Peloponnesian

00:53:55.840 war there

00:53:56.480 must be a

00:53:56.960 reason it's

00:53:57.480 not been a

00:53:58.680 big Hollywood

00:53:59.220 hit

00:53:59.740 I think part

00:54:02.440 of what's

00:54:03.520 straightforward

00:54:04.060 about the

00:54:04.860 Roman story

00:54:05.580 is that the

00:54:06.800 Republic flips

00:54:07.940 to Empire

00:54:08.760 once and

00:54:10.700 the Empire

00:54:11.200 then produces

00:54:11.900 a fantastic

00:54:13.480 rogues gallery

00:54:15.300 of monstrous

00:54:16.900 and memorably

00:54:17.720 monstrous

00:54:18.400 emperors and

00:54:20.260 so the I

00:54:20.840 Claudius

00:54:21.340 factors there

00:54:22.600 in a way

00:54:23.020 that it

00:54:23.520 just isn't

00:54:24.560 with the

00:54:26.340 Greek demagogues

00:54:27.420 so I think

00:54:28.280 the Greeks

00:54:28.640 just lost out

00:54:29.620 when it came

00:54:30.260 to villains

00:54:31.180 I mean they

00:54:32.040 just where

00:54:32.940 where is

00:54:33.740 their Nero

00:54:34.760 where's the

00:54:35.580 Caligula

00:54:36.080 so it's a

00:54:37.900 more straightforward

00:54:38.500 moral story

00:54:39.620 it's more

00:54:41.180 recent and

00:54:42.640 also I

00:54:43.320 mean Athens

00:54:43.980 Rome

00:54:44.840 I mean with

00:54:47.640 all due respect

00:54:48.200 to my Greek

00:54:48.700 friends Rome

00:54:49.400 just wins

00:54:50.120 as a tourist

00:54:51.140 destination

00:54:51.780 it's got

00:54:53.020 it's got

00:54:53.920 just the

00:54:54.600 most staggering

00:54:55.560 things

00:54:57.160 and I don't

00:54:58.740 think the

00:54:59.020 Acropolis can

00:54:59.780 can match

00:55:00.640 the Colosseum

00:55:01.240 I took my

00:55:01.820 younger sons

00:55:03.160 to Rome

00:55:03.620 last year

00:55:04.160 for a

00:55:04.920 mini grand

00:55:05.620 tour

00:55:05.980 and the

00:55:08.420 Colosseum

00:55:08.840 just blew

00:55:09.220 them away

00:55:09.680 as it should

00:55:10.520 it's a truly

00:55:11.380 astonishing thing

00:55:12.220 all the

00:55:12.580 Baths of

00:55:13.240 Caracalla

00:55:13.780 or Trajan's

00:55:14.940 Forum

00:55:15.160 and wandering

00:55:16.080 around Rome

00:55:16.820 one has a

00:55:17.480 very strong

00:55:18.540 sense

00:55:18.940 of the

00:55:20.160 durability

00:55:20.740 of the

00:55:21.340 Roman Empire

00:55:21.960 I mean the

00:55:22.520 buildings are

00:55:23.100 still there

00:55:24.000 and they're

00:55:25.560 really really

00:55:26.840 striking for

00:55:28.260 their scale

00:55:29.080 and the

00:55:30.600 duration of

00:55:31.320 the achievement

00:55:32.080 one doesn't

00:55:32.680 I don't get

00:55:33.400 quite that same

00:55:34.160 feeling from

00:55:35.960 going to Athens

00:55:36.600 well ironically

00:55:37.640 it is the

00:55:38.980 Greek colonies

00:55:39.940 in what is

00:55:41.180 now Italy

00:55:41.720 in Sicily

00:55:42.340 that are much

00:55:42.840 more impressive

00:55:43.320 I mean if you

00:55:43.720 go to

00:55:43.980 Agrigento

00:55:44.520 the valley of

00:55:45.100 the temple

00:55:45.400 you get a

00:55:46.620 scale

00:55:46.920 experience

00:55:47.660 there

00:55:47.860 but yes

00:55:48.440 I mean

00:55:48.760 when you

00:55:49.280 walk out

00:55:49.720 of the

00:55:50.000 metro

00:55:50.320 and see

00:55:50.900 the

00:55:51.100 Colosseum

00:55:51.700 that is

00:55:53.040 it's an

00:55:53.880 unforgettable

00:55:54.420 experience

00:55:55.540 and Carthage

00:55:58.400 why do we

00:55:59.440 not talk

00:56:00.180 about Carthage

00:56:01.100 at all

00:56:01.600 is it

00:56:02.160 because the

00:56:02.720 Romans

00:56:03.020 essentially

00:56:03.560 flattened

00:56:04.120 destroyed

00:56:04.560 it

00:56:04.880 yeah

00:56:05.420 that was

00:56:06.460 a win

00:56:07.420 they set

00:56:08.300 out to

00:56:08.940 do that

00:56:09.620 and they

00:56:10.100 did achieve

00:56:11.360 it

00:56:11.680 I think

00:56:12.580 that's

00:56:12.880 probably

00:56:14.000 the most

00:56:14.660 the archetypal

00:56:16.020 example of

00:56:16.600 history being

00:56:17.120 written by

00:56:18.100 the winners

00:56:18.480 and the

00:56:20.660 one thing

00:56:21.200 that has

00:56:21.580 endured

00:56:22.020 well not

00:56:22.500 the one

00:56:22.840 thing

00:56:23.040 many things

00:56:23.640 have endured

00:56:24.000 about the

00:56:24.580 Greek

00:56:25.120 the ancient

00:56:26.000 Greek empire

00:56:26.660 which I

00:56:27.340 love reading

00:56:27.980 about

00:56:28.280 and when I

00:56:29.280 was a teacher

00:56:29.960 I used to

00:56:30.420 teach the kids

00:56:31.040 and you could

00:56:31.500 see that they

00:56:32.120 had a magic

00:56:32.700 to it

00:56:33.120 which was the

00:56:33.980 myths

00:56:34.360 yeah

00:56:35.340 it's something

00:56:36.120 that speaks

00:56:37.000 to us

00:56:37.620 why do you

00:56:38.760 think that is

00:56:39.260 why is Greek

00:56:40.340 mythology

00:56:40.880 even now

00:56:42.140 so incredibly

00:56:43.060 powerful

00:56:43.560 I remember

00:56:44.440 as a schoolboy

00:56:44.980 thinking

00:56:45.300 well hang on

00:56:45.840 a second

00:56:46.280 the Romans

00:56:47.080 just took

00:56:47.660 all the Greek

00:56:48.380 gods

00:56:49.040 and renamed

00:56:49.940 them

00:56:50.240 and so the

00:56:51.280 Greek gods

00:56:52.100 were the real

00:56:52.580 gods

00:56:52.940 and Rome

00:56:53.660 was just

00:56:54.140 engaged in

00:56:54.940 rebranding

00:56:55.620 and I think

00:56:56.480 that's probably

00:56:58.020 part of it

00:56:59.240 the first

00:56:59.720 school book

00:57:00.560 I ever won

00:57:01.280 as a prize

00:57:02.160 was the

00:57:03.380 Greek

00:57:03.760 myths

00:57:04.980 and so

00:57:05.740 there is

00:57:06.020 something

00:57:06.360 compelling

00:57:07.480 about that

00:57:08.100 and it

00:57:08.340 wasn't

00:57:08.620 where the

00:57:08.940 Romans

00:57:09.180 were

00:57:09.420 at all

00:57:10.400 innovative

00:57:10.980 the Greeks

00:57:13.160 of course

00:57:14.120 left this

00:57:15.020 great literary

00:57:15.860 legacy

00:57:16.360 which again

00:57:17.500 the Romans

00:57:17.920 could only

00:57:18.400 kind of

00:57:18.800 copy

00:57:19.120 because the

00:57:19.540 Aeneid

00:57:19.820 is really

00:57:20.160 just a

00:57:20.580 knock-off

00:57:21.060 so I

00:57:22.720 so I

00:57:22.740 think

00:57:23.180 in cultural

00:57:24.340 terms

00:57:24.940 if you

00:57:25.780 think

00:57:25.960 at all

00:57:26.280 about the

00:57:26.600 ancient

00:57:26.880 world

00:57:27.220 you have

00:57:27.640 to sort

00:57:27.960 of take

00:57:28.260 your hat

00:57:28.640 off

00:57:28.960 to the

00:57:30.200 Greeks

00:57:30.500 for being

00:57:30.920 the true

00:57:31.320 innovators

00:57:31.960 but of course

00:57:33.520 if what you're

00:57:34.540 interested in

00:57:35.120 is power

00:57:36.360 then somehow

00:57:37.560 Rome's

00:57:38.260 has this

00:57:39.200 greater

00:57:39.660 range

00:57:40.940 definitely

00:57:42.520 territorially

00:57:43.480 range

00:57:43.780 further

00:57:44.200 and more

00:57:45.260 enduring

00:57:45.780 monuments

00:57:47.840 I wasn't

00:57:49.060 an ancient

00:57:49.460 historian

00:57:49.940 I hasten

00:57:50.880 to add

00:57:51.960 in my

00:57:53.800 time

00:57:54.080 modern

00:57:54.480 history

00:57:54.780 at Oxford

00:57:55.080 just meant

00:57:55.540 not ancient

00:57:56.220 so I did

00:57:57.400 a lot more

00:57:57.880 medieval

00:57:58.240 and early

00:57:58.680 modern

00:57:58.960 history

00:57:59.340 than

00:57:59.620 ancient

00:58:00.280 history

00:58:00.780 which I

00:58:01.560 suppose

00:58:02.060 I know

00:58:02.580 regret

00:58:03.440 but I

00:58:05.100 think

00:58:06.300 that's

00:58:08.060 the real

00:58:09.580 story

00:58:10.060 I do

00:58:10.940 wish that

00:58:11.680 we

00:58:12.220 did more

00:58:14.160 to teach

00:58:15.380 today's

00:58:16.720 students

00:58:18.160 about

00:58:18.620 the

00:58:18.980 ancient

00:58:19.340 world

00:58:20.160 because

00:58:20.840 one of

00:58:22.560 the things

00:58:22.940 that's

00:58:23.200 most

00:58:23.420 impressive

00:58:23.800 to me

00:58:24.280 is that

00:58:24.840 the Greek

00:58:25.620 and Roman

00:58:26.060 political

00:58:26.640 philosophy

00:58:27.280 provide

00:58:28.260 very important

00:58:29.140 building blocks

00:58:29.880 for understanding

00:58:30.660 what we mean

00:58:32.340 when we talk

00:58:32.900 about western

00:58:33.440 civilization

00:58:34.000 and the

00:58:35.980 idea

00:58:36.440 that there

00:58:37.440 are these

00:58:37.940 inherent

00:58:38.560 problems

00:58:39.120 with republican

00:58:39.840 government

00:58:40.280 that may

00:58:40.860 likely lead

00:58:41.520 to tyranny

00:58:42.020 it's such

00:58:42.400 a fundamental

00:58:42.960 idea

00:58:43.560 the renaissance

00:58:44.400 is about

00:58:44.900 sort of

00:58:45.160 taking that

00:58:45.640 idea

00:58:46.000 and dusting

00:58:47.060 it down

00:58:47.420 breathing

00:58:47.780 new life

00:58:48.260 into it

00:58:48.640 then it

00:58:48.860 becomes

00:58:49.100 absolutely

00:58:49.700 fundamental

00:58:50.420 to enlightenment

00:58:51.120 thinking

00:58:51.660 and that's

00:58:52.500 such an

00:58:52.920 important

00:58:53.280 idea

00:58:53.780 and it's

00:58:54.520 one that I

00:58:55.020 keep reminding

00:58:55.620 my American

00:58:56.780 friends about

00:58:57.580 because it's

00:58:59.060 quite plausible

00:58:59.860 that the

00:59:00.340 republic won't

00:59:01.360 last indefinitely

00:59:02.760 and it's

00:59:03.980 going down

00:59:04.880 a path

00:59:05.440 that seems

00:59:06.000 familiar to

00:59:06.560 any student

00:59:07.840 of classical

00:59:08.540 western

00:59:08.860 political

00:59:09.260 philosophy

00:59:09.740 where

00:59:10.220 the republic

00:59:12.660 becomes corrupt

00:59:13.700 it benefits

00:59:14.560 it benefits

00:59:14.580 the elite

00:59:15.220 ordinary

00:59:16.100 plebs

00:59:16.560 become

00:59:16.920 disillusioned

00:59:17.620 and a

00:59:17.860 demagogue

00:59:18.180 comes along

00:59:18.780 and says

00:59:19.160 the whole

00:59:20.020 thing is

00:59:20.400 a racket

00:59:20.860 but if

00:59:21.620 you give

00:59:21.920 all the

00:59:22.320 power

00:59:22.520 to me

00:59:23.040 I'll

00:59:23.760 put

00:59:24.240 things

00:59:24.520 right

00:59:24.820 I mean

00:59:25.060 that's

00:59:25.300 what's

00:59:25.520 going to

00:59:25.940 play out

00:59:26.320 next year

00:59:26.820 in the

00:59:27.020 United

00:59:27.260 States

00:59:27.720 Americans

00:59:29.140 should be

00:59:29.600 worried

00:59:29.840 about that

00:59:30.400 whether

00:59:30.660 they're

00:59:30.940 conservatives

00:59:31.420 or

00:59:31.860 liberals

00:59:32.340 they should

00:59:32.740 understand

00:59:33.260 that the

00:59:33.680 most obvious

00:59:34.440 threat to

00:59:34.900 the republic

00:59:35.360 apart from

00:59:36.200 defeat and

00:59:37.180 war by a

00:59:37.840 foreign

00:59:38.120 power

00:59:39.040 the most

00:59:39.700 obvious threat

00:59:40.360 is the

00:59:40.760 demagogue

00:59:41.180 who says

00:59:41.720 I alone

00:59:42.500 can fix

00:59:42.980 this

00:59:43.360 and clearly

00:59:44.520 has no

00:59:45.120 regard for

00:59:45.740 the constitution

00:59:46.340 at all

00:59:47.120 I mean

00:59:47.420 that's what

00:59:47.780 Trump is

00:59:48.300 he is

00:59:48.800 exactly

00:59:49.740 what the

00:59:50.100 founding fathers

00:59:50.760 worried about

00:59:51.500 and he's

00:59:52.280 here

00:59:52.520 why do you

00:59:53.320 say that

00:59:53.700 Neil

00:59:53.900 you are

00:59:54.500 on the

00:59:54.840 right

00:59:55.040 I think

00:59:56.160 a lot

00:59:56.460 of people

00:59:56.760 would say

00:59:57.120 and yet

00:59:57.540 Donald Trump

00:59:59.120 is a creature

00:59:59.700 of the

01:00:00.260 right

01:00:00.520 as it

01:00:00.900 is now

01:00:01.380 there are

01:00:03.140 a lot

01:00:03.440 of people

01:00:03.880 who think

01:00:04.640 genuinely

01:00:05.260 he's the

01:00:05.840 only person

01:00:06.400 who can

01:00:06.900 fix the

01:00:07.620 problems

01:00:07.880 of America

01:00:08.280 because he

01:00:08.760 comes from

01:00:09.260 outside of

01:00:09.980 the political

01:00:10.480 realm

01:00:10.940 because he's

01:00:12.400 not beholden

01:00:13.120 to donors

01:00:13.760 I mean

01:00:16.060 your argument

01:00:16.500 about his

01:00:17.220 disregard

01:00:17.680 for the

01:00:18.220 constitution

01:00:18.740 I think

01:00:19.520 after his

01:00:20.720 comments

01:00:21.660 about the

01:00:22.280 election

01:00:22.640 last time

01:00:23.540 is strong

01:00:24.420 people would

01:00:25.920 argue

01:00:26.260 Hillary Clinton

01:00:26.960 said the

01:00:27.340 same thing

01:00:27.800 Donald Trump

01:00:28.320 is an

01:00:28.620 illegitimate

01:00:29.060 president

01:00:29.500 they invented

01:00:30.120 the Russia

01:00:30.560 collusion

01:00:31.020 hoax

01:00:31.380 and ran

01:00:31.740 with it

01:00:32.040 for years

01:00:32.540 both sides

01:00:33.880 are denying

01:00:34.340 elections

01:00:34.760 why is

01:00:35.160 Donald Trump

01:00:35.620 special

01:00:35.980 is it

01:00:36.240 because

01:00:36.480 he's

01:00:36.760 more

01:00:36.960 charismatic

01:00:37.360 I think

01:00:39.180 there are

01:00:39.580 a couple

01:00:40.000 of points

01:00:40.820 to make

01:00:41.160 one

01:00:41.620 I entirely

01:00:42.580 agree

01:00:42.940 that the

01:00:43.480 delegitimation

01:00:44.660 of election

01:00:45.340 results was

01:00:45.980 not something

01:00:46.580 that Trump

01:00:47.520 began

01:00:47.980 it was

01:00:48.340 used against

01:00:50.200 him

01:00:50.460 in 2016

01:00:51.960 2017

01:00:52.540 and I

01:00:54.880 think

01:00:55.100 that

01:00:55.320 the

01:00:56.320 Democrats

01:00:56.680 and

01:00:57.100 they've

01:00:58.480 done it

01:00:58.760 again

01:00:59.040 I think

01:00:59.540 have brought

01:01:00.700 this upon

01:01:01.200 themselves

01:01:01.720 by their

01:01:02.400 almost

01:01:03.400 complete

01:01:03.820 disregard

01:01:04.320 for the

01:01:04.940 concerns

01:01:05.900 of so

01:01:07.640 many ordinary

01:01:08.160 Americans

01:01:08.600 about illegal

01:01:09.260 immigration

01:01:09.760 and crime

01:01:12.140 they played

01:01:13.720 into Trump's

01:01:14.840 hands

01:01:15.300 and in

01:01:17.200 some ways

01:01:17.540 the first

01:01:17.980 Trump

01:01:18.180 administration

01:01:18.620 was a

01:01:19.200 successful

01:01:19.600 administration

01:01:20.260 that addressed

01:01:21.080 a great

01:01:21.520 many of

01:01:21.960 the problems

01:01:22.460 that ordinary

01:01:23.580 Americans

01:01:24.040 had been

01:01:24.800 frustrated

01:01:25.220 by

01:01:25.600 I'll give

01:01:26.200 you one

01:01:26.520 simple

01:01:26.860 example

01:01:27.280 if you

01:01:28.160 look at

01:01:28.480 real median

01:01:29.140 household

01:01:29.500 earnings

01:01:29.920 they

01:01:30.100 completely

01:01:30.480 flatlined

01:01:31.160 from 1999

01:01:32.340 right the way

01:01:33.220 through

01:01:33.500 until 2016

01:01:34.500 they did

01:01:34.920 not move

01:01:35.280 at all

01:01:35.960 and under

01:01:36.840 Trump

01:01:37.140 they rose

01:01:37.600 9%

01:01:38.140 in real

01:01:38.720 terms

01:01:39.060 just in

01:01:39.740 three years

01:01:40.260 and even

01:01:40.860 the pandemic

01:01:41.420 could not

01:01:41.900 undo

01:01:42.280 that gain

01:01:43.420 the problem

01:01:45.060 with a

01:01:45.840 second

01:01:46.600 Trump

01:01:46.980 term

01:01:47.500 is that

01:01:48.700 on January

01:01:49.520 the 6th

01:01:50.000 I think

01:01:50.300 he revealed

01:01:51.000 himself

01:01:51.560 to be

01:01:52.380 a real

01:01:54.120 enemy

01:01:55.180 of

01:01:55.940 constitutional

01:01:56.620 government

01:01:57.480 in ways

01:01:58.680 that ought

01:01:59.080 really to

01:01:59.600 have

01:01:59.760 disqualified

01:02:00.300 him for

01:02:00.820 future

01:02:01.240 office

01:02:01.960 I said

01:02:03.080 that at

01:02:03.360 the time

01:02:03.800 I urged

01:02:05.220 friends

01:02:05.820 who were

01:02:06.640 in the

01:02:06.840 administration

01:02:07.420 to resign

01:02:08.340 immediately

01:02:08.800 I still

01:02:09.940 think

01:02:10.360 it was

01:02:10.820 a

01:02:11.060 catastrophic

01:02:11.680 but revealing

01:02:13.440 moment

01:02:14.360 in American

01:02:14.820 history

01:02:15.280 and to

01:02:16.840 re-elect

01:02:17.180 a man

01:02:17.580 who's

01:02:18.000 acted

01:02:18.780 in that

01:02:19.120 way

01:02:19.400 is

01:02:19.660 an

01:02:20.360 almost

01:02:20.700 suicidal

01:02:21.480 step

01:02:22.440 for anyone

01:02:23.180 who believes

01:02:23.740 in constitutional

01:02:24.700 government

01:02:25.240 I do

01:02:25.800 I think

01:02:26.200 the constitution

01:02:26.700 is sacred

01:02:27.940 and the

01:02:28.900 president's

01:02:29.700 role

01:02:29.940 is to

01:02:30.540 uphold

01:02:30.840 it

01:02:31.080 I don't

01:02:31.820 think

01:02:32.000 Donald Trump

01:02:32.640 can be

01:02:32.960 trusted

01:02:33.220 to uphold

01:02:33.720 the constitution

01:02:35.360 or indeed

01:02:35.760 any contract

01:02:36.380 that he's

01:02:36.780 ever signed

01:02:37.340 so

01:02:38.080 I don't

01:02:39.000 think

01:02:39.220 that's

01:02:39.920 an

01:02:40.060 unconserved

01:02:40.580 position

01:02:41.040 I think

01:02:41.320 it's

01:02:41.460 a truly

01:02:41.780 conservative

01:02:42.280 position

01:02:43.080 it's

01:02:44.480 tragic

01:02:45.100 that

01:02:45.460 American

01:02:45.840 voters

01:02:46.580 are going

01:02:46.860 to be

01:02:47.080 confronted

01:02:47.460 with

01:02:47.800 the same

01:02:48.240 choice

01:02:48.700 that they

01:02:49.780 were

01:02:49.940 confronted

01:02:50.380 with

01:02:51.380 in

01:02:51.580 2020

01:02:52.140 Joe

01:02:53.640 Biden

01:02:53.980 is

01:02:54.220 an

01:02:54.540 even

01:02:55.480 less

01:02:55.780 credible

01:02:56.260 candidate

01:02:57.880 because

01:02:58.780 of his

01:02:59.120 age

01:02:59.640 and

01:03:00.120 mistakes

01:03:00.620 that the

01:03:01.040 Biden

01:03:01.340 administration

01:03:01.920 has made

01:03:02.420 the moment

01:03:03.620 I feel

01:03:03.960 as if

01:03:04.340 events

01:03:04.840 are playing

01:03:05.560 into

01:03:05.820 Trump's

01:03:06.400 hands

01:03:07.040 and

01:03:07.280 I think

01:03:08.380 the lesson

01:03:08.840 of history

01:03:09.280 is that

01:03:09.760 republics

01:03:10.420 that go

01:03:10.740 down that

01:03:11.340 path

01:03:11.920 are

01:03:13.620 dicing

01:03:14.320 with death

01:03:14.960 I mean

01:03:16.220 there's

01:03:16.680 we could

01:03:17.120 always get

01:03:17.480 Gavin Newsom

01:03:18.180 in

01:03:18.320 you'd be

01:03:18.680 happy

01:03:18.900 with that

01:03:19.180 wouldn't

01:03:19.360 you

01:03:19.460 Neil

01:03:19.640 well I

01:03:19.920 wouldn't

01:03:20.020 be

01:03:20.140 happy

01:03:20.400 with

01:03:20.660 it

01:03:20.960 but I

01:03:21.780 think

01:03:21.980 if I

01:03:22.400 were a

01:03:22.680 Democrat

01:03:23.000 that's

01:03:23.420 what I

01:03:23.660 would

01:03:23.800 do

01:03:24.060 I

01:03:24.340 mean

01:03:24.460 I

01:03:24.580 really

01:03:24.860 would

01:03:25.140 and

01:03:25.720 I've

01:03:25.900 said

01:03:26.080 this

01:03:26.320 to

01:03:26.500 my

01:03:26.780 Democratic

01:03:27.740 friends

01:03:28.160 that

01:03:28.360 if

01:03:28.520 you're

01:03:32.420 can't

01:03:32.940 possibly

01:03:33.460 think

01:03:33.960 that

01:03:34.700 Joe

01:03:34.920 Biden

01:03:35.240 and

01:03:35.400 Kamala

01:03:35.660 Harris

01:03:35.960 can

01:03:36.140 do

01:03:36.300 it

01:03:36.400 a

01:03:36.500 second

01:03:36.700 time

01:03:36.980 and

01:03:37.100 so

01:03:37.220 you

01:03:37.380 really

01:03:37.660 ought

01:03:37.880 to

01:03:38.020 try

01:03:38.300 to

01:03:39.620 lead

01:03:40.440 the

01:03:40.680 old

01:03:40.880 man

01:03:41.060 off

01:03:41.260 stage

01:03:41.840 and

01:03:42.200 clear

01:03:43.480 the

01:03:43.660 way

01:03:43.880 for

01:03:44.080 somebody

01:03:44.460 as

01:03:45.560 utterly

01:03:46.000 cynical

01:03:46.440 and

01:03:46.720 unprincipled

01:03:47.320 as

01:03:47.520 Gavin

01:03:47.780 Newsom

01:03:48.180 who's

01:03:48.500 probably

01:03:48.980 capable

01:03:50.280 of

01:03:50.580 beating

01:03:50.800 Trump

01:03:51.140 but I

01:03:51.440 don't

01:03:51.560 think

01:03:51.700 that's

01:03:51.900 going

01:03:52.020 to

01:03:52.120 happen

01:03:52.400 at

01:03:53.280 least

01:03:53.480 it's

01:03:54.020 very

01:03:54.280 late

01:03:54.600 in

01:03:54.720 the

01:03:54.820 day

01:03:54.980 for

01:03:55.080 it

01:03:55.160 to

01:03:55.280 happen

01:03:55.500 now

01:03:55.860 so

01:03:56.700 yeah

01:03:57.100 I

01:03:57.720 think

01:03:57.920 coming

01:03:59.000 back

01:03:59.300 to

01:03:59.500 our

01:03:59.700 doleful

01:04:00.180 start

01:04:00.800 if

01:04:01.660 there's

01:04:01.840 one

01:04:02.040 thing

01:04:02.260 that

01:04:02.440 worries

01:04:02.900 me

01:04:03.200 about

01:04:03.840 western

01:04:04.680 civilization

01:04:05.280 it's

01:04:05.980 the

01:04:06.200 possibility

01:04:06.880 that

01:04:07.820 its

01:04:08.020 most

01:04:08.420 important

01:04:08.900 component

01:04:09.420 today

01:04:09.840 the

01:04:10.000 United

01:04:10.300 States

01:04:10.800 commits

01:04:11.980 a

01:04:12.220 sort

01:04:12.400 of

01:04:12.540 political

01:04:12.940 suicide

01:04:13.520 it

01:04:14.840 certainly

01:04:15.420 would

01:04:15.720 be

01:04:16.040 in

01:04:16.660 line

01:04:16.960 with

01:04:17.320 much

01:04:17.720 of

01:04:17.860 classical

01:04:18.260 and

01:04:18.700 renaissance

01:04:19.140 and

01:04:19.400 enlightenment

01:04:19.940 political

01:04:20.460 theory

01:04:20.960 that

01:04:21.220 that

01:04:21.460 would

01:04:21.640 happen

01:04:22.000 and

01:04:23.080 here

01:04:23.660 I

01:04:23.820 think

01:04:23.980 I

01:04:24.140 agree

01:04:24.360 with

01:04:24.660 Peter

01:04:25.280 Turchin

01:04:25.760 I

01:04:25.920 think

01:04:26.040 we

01:04:26.200 are

01:04:26.420 approaching

01:04:26.840 a

01:04:27.020 crisis

01:04:27.320 in

01:04:27.520 the

01:04:27.620 United

01:04:27.860 States

01:04:28.260 but

01:04:28.840 I

01:04:28.960 think

01:04:29.140 it's

01:04:29.320 more

01:04:29.680 a

01:04:30.100 crisis

01:04:30.440 of

01:04:30.780 republican

01:04:31.320 constitutional

01:04:32.240 order

01:04:32.780 and

01:04:32.980 its

01:04:33.140 legitimacy

01:04:33.600 than

01:04:34.940 a

01:04:35.680 crisis

01:04:36.140 of

01:04:36.420 the

01:04:36.580 over

01:04:36.820 production

01:04:37.200 of

01:04:37.400 elites

01:04:37.780 or

01:04:38.100 demography

01:04:39.500 or

01:04:39.680 any

01:04:39.820 of

01:04:39.940 that

01:04:40.080 kind

01:04:40.260 of

01:04:40.360 stuff

01:04:40.620 I

01:04:40.860 just

01:04:41.040 think

01:04:41.180 this

01:04:41.340 is

01:04:41.440 the

01:04:41.560 classical

01:04:41.940 problem

01:04:42.380 that

01:04:42.680 republics

01:04:43.500 run

01:04:43.800 into

01:04:44.140 after

01:04:45.100 a

01:04:45.280 certain

01:04:45.500 point

01:04:45.820 when

01:04:46.100 the

01:04:46.460 legitimacy

01:04:46.900 of

01:04:47.280 the

01:04:47.380 constitution

01:04:47.820 is

01:04:48.220 no

01:04:48.540 longer

01:04:48.940 sacrosanct

01:04:49.680 well

01:04:51.220 we

01:04:51.460 finished

01:04:51.800 where

01:04:51.980 we

01:04:52.120 started

01:04:52.520 sadness

01:04:56.420 what

01:04:56.760 light

01:04:57.420 relief

01:04:57.760 I

01:04:57.960 can

01:04:58.160 offer

01:04:58.500 you

01:04:58.660 I

01:04:59.240 will

01:04:59.540 solve

01:04:59.860 all

01:05:00.040 problems

01:05:00.460 it

01:05:01.840 must

01:05:02.860 be

01:05:03.060 true

01:05:03.420 everything

01:05:04.240 is

01:05:04.480 awesome

01:05:04.900 techno

01:05:05.560 optimists

01:05:06.340 yay

01:05:06.760 I

01:05:07.200 think

01:05:07.340 that's

01:05:07.600 the

01:05:08.140 cope

01:05:08.480 not

01:05:10.600 very

01:05:10.840 persuasive

01:05:11.320 Neil

01:05:11.900 as you

01:05:12.380 know

01:05:12.500 we

01:05:12.700 always

01:05:13.080 end

01:05:13.440 the

01:05:13.620 show

01:05:13.780 with

01:05:13.940 the

01:05:14.040 same

01:05:14.220 question

01:05:14.640 we'll

01:05:15.060 do

01:05:15.220 a

01:05:15.340 couple

01:05:15.520 of

01:05:15.680 quick

01:05:15.880 questions

01:05:16.260 for

01:05:16.500 our

01:05:16.760 supporters

01:05:17.180 on

01:05:17.440 locals

01:05:17.840 but

01:05:18.080 before

01:05:18.280 we

01:05:18.440 go

01:05:18.640 there

01:05:18.940 what's

01:05:19.740 the

01:05:19.820 one

01:05:19.940 thing

01:05:20.100 we're

01:05:20.260 not

01:05:20.440 talking

01:05:20.740 about

01:05:20.980 that

01:05:21.100 we

01:05:21.200 should

01:05:21.340 be

01:05:21.540 I

01:05:25.560 think

01:05:25.820 China's

01:05:26.440 nuclear

01:05:26.780 program

01:05:27.300 the

01:05:28.300 fact

01:05:28.480 that

01:05:28.640 China

01:05:28.900 is

01:05:29.080 building

01:05:29.380 a

01:05:29.620 vast

01:05:30.160 nuclear

01:05:30.540 arsenal

01:05:30.960 is

01:05:31.180 a

01:05:31.360 much

01:05:31.620 bigger

01:05:31.920 deal

01:05:32.300 and

01:05:33.220 it

01:05:33.380 gets

01:05:33.660 very

01:05:34.360 little

01:05:34.680 coverage

01:05:35.180 you've

01:05:37.100 opened up

01:05:37.580 a can

01:05:37.900 of worms

01:05:38.260 that I

01:05:38.500 really

01:05:38.680 want to

01:05:38.940 get

01:05:39.040 into

01:05:39.260 but

01:05:39.440 we

01:05:39.680 have

01:05:39.880 to

01:05:40.020 let

01:05:40.180 you

01:05:40.300 go

01:05:40.460 so

01:05:40.720 head

01:05:40.980 on

01:05:41.080 over

01:05:41.220 to

01:05:41.400 locals

01:05:41.660 we'll

01:05:41.860 maybe

01:05:42.040 see

01:05:42.260 if

01:05:42.380 we

01:05:42.460 can

01:05:42.600 get

01:05:42.740 a

01:05:42.860 couple

01:05:43.020 of

01:05:43.140 questions

01:05:43.420 in

01:05:43.580 about

01:05:43.760 that

01:05:44.040 Neil

01:05:44.480 Ferguson

01:05:44.780 thank

01:05:45.220 you

01:05:45.300 very

01:05:45.420 much

01:05:45.580 it's

01:05:45.700 been

01:05:45.820 my

01:05:51.540 boom

01:06:00.660 and

01:06:00.800 alpine

01:06:01.120 credits

01:06:01.480 bring

01:06:01.760 you

01:06:01.920 payroll

01:06:02.320 payout

01:06:02.860 win

01:06:03.140 a hundred

01:06:03.420 dollars

01:06:03.740 an hour

01:06:04.100 weekdays

01:06:04.580 at

01:06:04.740 nine

01:06:04.980 one

01:06:05.220 and

01:06:05.340 five

01:06:05.700 sign

01:06:06.000 up

01:06:06.160 now

01:06:06.420 at

01:06:06.580 boom

01:06:06.860 97

01:06:07.300 free

01:06:07.540 dot

01:06:07.760 com

01:06:08.080 approved

01:06:08.680 by

01:06:08.960 alpine

01:06:09.340 credits

01:06:09.800 own

01:06:10.100 your

01:06:10.260 own

01:06:10.420 home

01:06:10.620 and

01:06:10.740 eat

01:06:10.860 alone

01:06:11.160 alpine

01:06:11.620 credits

01:06:11.960 can

01:06:12.160 help

01:06:12.440 visit

01:06:12.740 alpine

01:06:13.080 credits

01:06:13.480 dot

01:06:13.800 ca

TRIGGERnometry - November 19, 2023

Niall Ferguson： How Civilizations Collapse

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