00:01:09.540Before we get into the conversation, tell us a little bit about your background and your story and how you come to be sitting here today with us.
00:01:16.720Yeah, well, I used to work for the Labour Party.
00:01:19.660I mean, I used to, to be honest, I used to work for my mother, and she was a Labour MP, so worked for her for five years in the 1997 election.
00:01:28.920Then I went off, did the sort of the PR consultancy circuit for a bit, and then somehow, I'm not entirely sure how, stumbled into journalism and political commentary, which is how I ended up here.
00:01:43.740Yeah. And you're one of the people I see in the media being very upbeat and positive about Andy Burnham, which is why it'd be interesting for us to chat with you. You're frowning a bit. Is that an unfair...
00:01:56.760No, no, no. I mean, I think it's being upbeat. I mean, I think last time we spoke, I think it was before he became prime minister, wasn't he? I think Keir Star announced it.
00:02:07.900It was very clear that he was about to be.
00:02:11.760We had the discussion and obviously at the time there were already predictions of imminent sort of doom and gloom and disaster for Andy Burnham.
00:02:20.440And I just sort of posed a little bit of a corrective saying I wasn't entirely sure that in the short term his premiership was going to collapse quite as precipitously as maybe Julia thought at the time.
00:02:32.200And that's basically sort of my analysis.
00:02:36.560I mean, I was saying before that one of the things
00:02:38.960in relation to Andy Burnham is he's the first prime minister
00:02:41.040who I know, who I kind of knew him properly
00:04:51.060Genuinely, he seems like a perfectly nice guy.
00:04:52.880He seems to me like a bit of a people pleaser, to be honest.
00:04:55.460He seems like he's keen to promise everything to everyone.
00:04:59.180There's a headline today, I think you were showing me,
00:05:00.920what was it, him saying national defense can't take precedence over, no, national security can't
00:05:08.420take precedence over social security, which is fundamentally trade-off denialism, as I call it,
00:05:14.100which is you pretend everything is possible all at once, which it isn't. But the interesting thing
00:05:19.340is you talk about his agenda. What is his agenda? What is his vision? What does Andy Burnham believe
00:05:26.040about the direction the country should go in well i think there are i think there are two things i
00:05:30.860mean just picking up on what you said about the sort of the denialism it's a slightly more
00:05:35.560sophisticated position than that because and and i've got to be honest i'm in a very much in a
00:05:43.160minority view at the moment i am pretty certain that what what andy burnham is currently doing
00:05:48.280is preparing for a snap general election at some point some point next year and so everything that
00:05:55.400he is doing at the moment, he's basically starting to align with that and maximise his
00:06:00.240opportunity to successfully call that election. Of which, although, you know, the terminology
00:06:07.880that he used in Prime Minister's question is, yes, he was a very bad blunder and obviously gave
00:06:12.420can be bad or not the opportunity to immediately pounce on him and his other political critics
00:06:18.000to pounce on him. There is a strategy behind what he was saying, which was, and we saw it
00:06:25.420also with the statements that was made earlier in the week about the sanctions on Israeli
00:06:32.080settlements. It's part of a broader strategy that his defensive welfare is part of a broader
00:06:38.860strategy of shoring up his left flank as we approach the election. Because his calculation,
00:06:46.240The calculation within Downing Street is if he can shore up his left flank, if he can pull enough votes away from the Greens, if he can pull enough votes away from what I would call the sort of radical Islamist splinter parties, if he can pull away some soft Lib Dems, if he can mobilise the anti-reform coalition which is forming in the country,
00:07:13.880then he could probably get to around about 31-32% in the opinion polls
00:07:40.020I mean he's kind of sort of setting out his stall a little bit
00:07:42.400So obviously, we had a statement about ending, you know, eradicating rough sleeping, which will obviously not be done, you know, with it over the short term, if at all.
00:07:52.300He's identified the issue, obviously, of social care, which is very much a priority for him.
00:07:57.160And as I said, obviously, he keeps identifying more broadly a broader sort of distribution of wealth, to put it simplistically, from the South to the North and to the regions.
00:08:08.300But those sort of, if you like, big ticket items are going to be, if you like, the second stage, as he sees it, in the Burnham Premiership.
00:08:16.360And what we're seeing at the moment is him basically preparing the groundwork to, as I say, calling an election next year and securing a personal mandate and a workable majority.
00:08:27.320So just so that I'm hearing you correctly, what you think we're seeing is the reason he's not, you know, giving you the full manifesto and all the details and everything he's going to do is he's actually that's not the job right now.
00:08:40.860The job right now is to, like you say, see off the Greens, basically, and the far left, get them into the fold, call an election with announce a few popular policy, you know, the cap bus fares and all this stuff.
00:08:56.180sort of the low throw a few sweets to the to the masses call an election win and at that point you
00:09:02.180start to actually implement yeah i mean the other thing is i mean i i i've been so i'm being slightly
00:09:08.420over generous in interpretation the other thing is he hasn't got strategy worked out yet i mean
00:09:14.500that's now that's a product of a number of things product of the fact that in the run-up to his um
00:09:21.700him sort of succeeding Keir Starmer a lot of his effort and obviously his focus was on
00:09:29.300and of those around him was on the mechanics that enabled him to enter Downing Street you know get
00:09:34.900rid of Keir Starmer at the Downing Street in the first place and if you remember the prevailing
00:09:39.460narrative sort of at the start of this year um was kind of Andy I mean I remember you know debating
00:09:46.740this and people saying this you know Andy Byrne doesn't have a path you know Andy Byrne doesn't
00:09:51.940really have a path to Downing Street Keir Starmer's going to be here for for the next couple of
00:09:56.500couple of years so that was a big focus of what he's uh of his attention second thing was just
00:10:03.780the practicalities of the transition timetable he and his team thought they would have up until
00:10:09.140just the beginning of Labour Party conference at which point Keir Starmer would step down
00:10:13.620and they would have the the preceding months to sort of put a strategy in place obviously they
00:10:18.820didn't have that opportunity so they're kind of making stuff up on the hoof which is again
00:10:23.860why they're sort of going for the lower lower hanging fruit in terms of in terms of policy
00:10:28.420development but the other thing is as i say he is facing the same strategic political dilemmas
00:10:34.900that his predecessor and other prime listeners have faced which is how do you actually solve
00:10:40.180the problems how do you solve the problem of the small boats how do you deal with the with the fact
00:10:46.580that britain is basically a country that is that is broke how do you deal with the threat of putin
00:10:52.940how do you deal with the big strategic issues and the reality is andy burnham's no closer to
00:10:58.020answering those questions than than anyone else and the really worrying thing for me dan is this
00:11:04.520is you spoke about being broke i think it's genuinely worse than that i think we're on a
00:11:09.680financial precipice. I don't think either political party has done anything really to
00:11:14.960address it. I mean, just look at the facts. 2.9 trillion in debt, 100% debt to GDP ratio,
00:11:21.120a currency that's lost around about 40% in value since 2020. We have doubled the debt that we had
00:11:28.760in 2008, double the debt after the financial crisis. Wages haven't gone up in real time.
00:11:50.040Yeah, apart from that, everything's fine.
00:11:51.480But yeah, no, I mean, that's exactly right.
00:11:56.000And I think anybody who thinks Andy Burnham
00:12:00.380is just suddenly going to go, you know, click his fingers
00:12:02.660and then magically solve all of these problems is deluding themselves.
00:12:08.280I mean, I think, you know, I talked about the big strategic problems
00:12:12.700that he's facing, the country's facing.
00:12:15.160The reality is these are, at the moment, seemingly intractable problems for a reason
00:12:23.080because nobody's actually come up with a, you know, of any political persuasion
00:12:27.720has managed to come up with a solution to them.
00:12:31.340I mean, the one thing I would say as well, though, you know, Andy Burnham is operating with the same constraints that his predecessors operated with, within, which is he has to try and find a solution to these political problems, but also do in a way that is politically viable.
00:12:48.720In other words, he has to find a way of reducing the deficit whilst protecting public services, whilst reducing the tax burden, whilst stimulating growth, whilst reassuring the bond markets.
00:13:05.280Now, if any of us has got answers on the postcard, please, if there's an easy solution to doing that.
00:13:54.760And as I said, you'll say I'm being positive and optimistic
00:13:57.660about Andy Burnham on a sort of narrow level, yes.
00:14:01.180But as I say, at the moment, I'm not entirely sure
00:14:05.600how any politician can find an easy solution.
00:14:08.020Well, this is a problem. And I think the answer to the question lies in the words easy solution,
00:14:14.780which is there's no easy solution. And unfortunately, in life, there are a lot of
00:14:21.080solutions which aren't easy. For instance, if you've got cancer, the solution is chemotherapy.
00:14:28.220I don't think there is anybody on this planet who would think that chemo is an easy medicine to take.
00:14:33.700And I think this country is at a position where it needs some kind of intervention, because the way I see it and the people that I talk to, friends of ours who are in economics or in finance, they have made it pretty clear that we are heading towards a financial precipice.
00:14:51.580yeah i i i don't disagree with that the thing i would maybe slightly character is sort of
00:14:58.640slightly change the characterization is you're talking about you know there need to be hard
00:15:03.540choices and i don't disagree with that but for a politician be it andy burnham and any other
00:15:08.600politician it's not simply a case of saying right there is a very hard choice you have to take take
00:15:14.800it because the reality is and again this is against the backdrop of the growth of populism
00:15:22.680but will be the case even without that as a politician you can't take a hard choice
00:15:27.420unless you get the endorsement of the electorate to take that choice so let's take it let's take
00:15:34.040an issue such as for example the triple lot you speak to a senior politician of any political
00:15:39.860party privately they will tell you triple lock is unsustainable but they will equally tell you
00:15:46.500just explain for people that triple lock well it's it you tell me i mean what where my understanding
00:15:52.200of the triple like it basically pensions are always going up yeah basically simply simplistically
00:15:58.320it's a commitment that the pensions will be guaranteed i think it's a it's a hangover from
00:16:04.260i think it was george osborne wasn't it was it george osborne who first introduced it was it
00:16:07.880I can't remember. It's been around so long. But you speak to any of them and they say it's not
00:16:12.860sustainable. It's not financially sustainable. But they equally say, if I stand up and say that,
00:16:18.000I'm not going to get elected. So what do you want me to do? And therein lies the dilemma.
00:16:26.520What do you do? I mean, so many problems that are laid at the door of modern politicians,
00:16:34.080they haven't had the courage to deal with it or whatever. It's not that they haven't got the
00:16:37.580don't identify the problem in terms of all they don't want to do them is they don't think they'll
00:16:42.980get a political a political mandate to do it and if you're not going to get a political mandate to
00:16:47.460do it if you're not going to get the approval of the electorate by adopting a policy you may be
00:16:52.060brave but you know your political opponents are immediately going to jump up and say ah ha ha
00:16:55.900well we're not doing that and the people we don't worry we'll protect you know pensioners will
00:17:01.240protect your triple lot and we know how pensioners pensioners vote as a proportion of the overall
00:17:06.360electorate what do you do I mean look at the look at the I mean as I said Andy Burnham has
00:17:13.200has identified and put the whole issue of social care back back on the political agenda because
00:17:19.460it is something he cares about I remember where are we now when was it so it's the 2017 election
00:17:25.940so almost a decade ago there was a common there was again there was a settled political consensus
00:17:31.020that social care and the social care crisis finally had to be dealt and if it wasn't dealt
00:17:36.920with we were we were facing catastrophe. Theresa May went into that election an election where it0.99
00:17:44.260was it was widely perceived she would win she would wipe Jeremy Corbyn out she took the decision
00:17:50.620right I may lose a few seats on the back of this policy but I think I need to grasp the nettle I
00:17:57.380need to be brave I need to say right we're going to introduce I'm going to get to grips with the
00:18:04.160issue of social care Labour turn around accuser of introducing a death tax her support collapses
00:18:09.060with the result we all we all know so you know when we're talking about there's a difference
00:18:17.140between a hard decision and what is a politically impossible position that's the that's the that's
00:18:23.360the problem facing Andy Burnham and all other politicians at the moment. If you only read one
00:18:28.480side of the news, you're not informed, you're being curated. That's why I use Ground News.
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00:19:05.160of Americans now support banning social media for anyone under 16, with a majority of Republicans
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00:19:55.940slash trigonometry or click the link in the description of this episode. Get 40% off their
00:20:00.900vantage plan, the same one that we use, and stop being managed by the media. And look, it's a great
00:20:06.700point, but eventually, Dan, you either get treatment or you die to go back to the cancer
00:20:12.660a metaphor and at this point financially i don't think people in this country understand where we
00:20:20.240are because we're about to go broke and when that happens it's going to make these interventions
00:20:27.160look like the proverbial walk in the park yeah but i mean i think whatever intervention we're
00:20:32.620gonna i mean look i was having this conversation the other day i mean we can all have an argument
00:20:49.460by some, erased from the national consciousness.
00:20:52.460It's like, I don't know if you've seen the film
00:20:53.800Men in Black, where it goes at the end like that.
00:20:56.280That's almost been done in relation to COVID.
00:20:58.080So I remember at the time having discussions,
00:21:00.460we had a situation where the British economy
00:21:02.720was essentially nationalised for 12 to 18 months,
00:21:05.600just everything we had a package of financial intervention that mirrored the sort of financial
00:21:11.820intervention that that you know took the country through the second world war and defeated Hitler
00:21:17.340and it was but it was very clear that amount of money you know that the vast amounts that were
00:21:25.780being spent on supporting the economy in the country at the time would have to be paid back
00:21:33.480And that's true. But no one's talking about that.
00:21:37.760So in terms of what you're saying, the reality is you don't actually need to convince any senior politician in this country about what you're saying.
00:21:49.700Andy Burnham, John Healy, they know the state of the public finances.
00:23:24.640example you're talking about um you know people leave you know wealthy people leaving the country
00:23:29.700i think we've got a bigger we've got a bigger problem than wealthy people leaving the country
00:23:34.740we've got a really big problem at the moment trying to get wealthy people into the country
00:23:38.300right yeah well it's the same problem well it's not really i mean the the reality i mean people
00:23:43.080maybe leave leaving for a variety of reasons of which i think you would argue sort of tax rates
00:23:48.900Tax, crime, productivity, employment laws, a variety of issues, but equally there are still a lot of wealthy people who want to get into the country but can't get into the country because of where the immigration debate is at the moment.
00:24:09.280So there's that issue. The other issue in relation to tax, Andy Burnham is in a situation where, and John Healy are in a situation where they obviously need to deal with the financial deficit, the huge debt mountain, but also have to stimulate the economy.
00:24:31.720Now, as we know, before then, there was a prime minister who thought she had a very simple solution to this, which was to simultaneously cut taxes and stimulate the economy.
00:24:47.060Similarly, it comes back to the issue I'm talking about, which is you need whatever policy agenda you pursue, you need public consent.
00:24:54.920You are not simply going to get public consent for absolutely slashing Britain's public services.
00:25:00.820because at the moment a significant amount of the public discontent you will both hear this
00:25:06.100all the time i hear is things don't work you know you call the police the police don't come you call
00:25:11.700for an ambulance an ambulance doesn't come if you get on a train it doesn't work it it breaks down
00:25:17.860so this you know and i keep hearing that you know from people on the right you know the state's too
00:25:23.620big the state's too big we've got to shrink the state rich public don't want the state shrunk
00:25:28.100in that way they don't want fewer police officers they don't want fewer ambulances
00:25:31.940doctors nurses teachers similarly i hear from people on the right you know we need to you know
00:25:38.500we need to stimulate the market go out and speak to people about what they think about whether
00:25:42.900whether or not the water companies should be in public or private ownership ask them about what
00:25:47.540they think about whether the energy companies should be in public private ownership so again
00:25:53.060Then what you regard as the solutions and what I may regard as some of the solutions are not necessarily what not just a majority of the British people think, but sufficient number of the British people think to enable any political party to actually get into government to implement those solutions in the first place.
00:26:09.860Well, right. And this is you've made the point that I whenever Francis and I are arguing back and forth about this, people like to blame politicians. I'm sorry. I blame the people.
00:26:19.340we get the politicians that we elect and if you believe that the solution to a massive debt
00:26:28.300problem is to to have a bigger state and for the state to do more that costs money there by the
00:26:35.560way i'm not someone who like wants to slash everything and have zero government i don't
00:26:39.440think that's true at all you actually need a lot of state capacity and certain things to do anything
00:26:43.420and government borrowing to invest in productive things at certain points can stimulate the
00:26:49.160economy and is important. But when you're already at the debt levels that we're at, that's going to
00:26:55.320be a challenge. And I mean, your point is also right. I mean, look at Starmer. Starmer tried
00:27:00.200to cut welfare. He tried. And it was Labour backbenchers that stopped him. It wasn't anyone
00:27:04.440else. So I completely agree with you. I mean, I think the public... Let me just finish this
00:27:11.320point about the metaphor, because I think the cancer metaphor that France has started was
00:27:14.400exactly right i think the patient is in denial and that's why we are where we are the patient
00:27:20.460thinks he has no cancer the patient thinks we're you know we're ticking along okay yeah look i've
00:27:25.520got a bit of a pain back here and you know every morning i get up and i don't quite have the energy
00:27:29.620but i haven't got cancer i'm just yeah you know it's i'm aging what's a little blood in the urine
00:27:34.180between friends yeah no that's that's what's going on absolutely but also to but to extend
00:27:39.900In the analogy, you may be absolutely right, but if the patient doesn't give them concern
00:27:44.480for the surgery, there's nothing the surgeon can do about it.
00:27:48.100What I was going to say is I wouldn't necessarily characterize it as, you know, blame the electric
00:30:34.120Because that's not insulating the wealthiest.
00:30:37.820At the same time as working people in various other forms of taxation
00:30:42.500and the erosion of their public services were shouldering a very significant...
00:30:48.820Yeah, I mean, look, David, we're going back into ancient history for many people,
00:30:53.520But the Lib Dems, one of the benefits of having the Lib Dems in the coalition is they force the raising of the tax-free threshold.
00:31:01.980And so people at the bottom, and I was one of those people at the bottom at the time, so I remember, well, got a big leg up.
00:31:08.400But the broader point I was going to make is, I mean, the top 10% of people in this country pay, I think, something like 60% of all income and capital gains tax.
00:31:17.740so the the this narrative about how wealthy people or people it's not even wealthy people
00:31:25.120it's people who are earning more than others are protected or insulated no they they pay
00:31:30.040a hell of a lot no but but but yeah i see this argument used a lot and i i get the point but
00:31:35.500the reality is firstly you have to in my view look at what people are paying in in proportionate
00:31:44.720terms, not just in relation to their actual income, but the actual experience of their
00:31:49.060lives. So if somebody who, say somebody in a working class community, let's use an example,
00:32:02.720their child, because of the various things, their child can't afford to get a house of their own
00:32:07.700or whatever, means their child has to move in, they have to support their, continue to support
00:32:12.160their child etc etc that has a direct and significant impact on on their lives if a
00:32:19.440wealthy person has to sell one of their private jets so they only now have come on three private
00:32:27.820jets you're just being silly now well no i'm not i mean that is no but that but but this is the
00:32:32.740thing so you want to bring in a private jet tax no no i'm not i'm not because that's not what0.92
00:32:36.400we're arguing i'm not making i'm not making a specific policy point i'm making a broader point
00:32:40.520I'm contesting the argument you made that, oh, everybody across the board has been facing, during the years of austerity, everyone across the board has been facing the same burden.
00:32:53.380And even the argument you put forward, which is what wealthy people pay as an overall proportion of the tax take from the state, it's not about that.
00:33:05.460It's about the direct impact of a period of austerity, of economic hardship, of social hardship.
00:33:14.040And the reality is, the wealthiest, as you conceded, you said, because they're wealthy, have been insulated from that.
00:43:34.980also what turned out to be the get-out-of-jail-free
00:43:37.320card of the of the popular boost that she got from from the Falklands war that gave her the
00:43:42.280political space and if it hadn't been for the Falklands war you know British history but it
00:43:45.500would have been very different than that except to Margaret Thatcher would have been would have
00:43:49.100been very would have been very very different but to again take the conversation right back to the
00:43:54.020beginning that's kind of what I'm saying in relation to Andy Burnham that's kind of what
00:43:58.560Andy Burnham's strategy is Andy Burnham knows he can't turn around tomorrow as someone who's come
00:44:03.780in without a mandate and say, I'm going to introduce this radical surgery. I'm going to do
00:44:09.000all these things, none of which you actually voted for when you voted Labour. I'm going to do all
00:44:13.900these things. I know it's hard, but tough, and I'm showing you, I'm going to be very brave. And by
00:44:20.860the way, I've got, you know, two and a half, just under three years to introduce it. His strategy
00:44:25.860is, as I said, going back to the original point, that's exactly the strategy he's pursuing. Okay,
00:44:30.840do this do not the easy stuff but the slightly more popular stuff deal with the politics win
00:44:36.820a majority give myself five years give myself a working majority and then I'll start to take the
00:44:41.880take the tough decisions now that's the thinking and I think in terms of our analysis of Andy
00:44:47.080Burnham and his government it's only when he gets that personal mandate that we will
00:44:52.460and or majority he may not get one at all you know events could expire against him but the
00:44:58.320reality is in terms of knowing what Andy Burnham is and what he would be like as a prime minister
00:45:02.660I think that's that's the only point we'll get at we'll get a sort of a proper and genuine
00:45:07.780assessment it's a fair point I mean the other issue that people consistently talking about1.00
00:45:14.020and are very very frustrated about and understandably so is levels of immigration
00:45:18.680into this country which is one issue and illegal immigration on the other and it really upsets1.00
00:45:24.140people and quite rightly so because they look at people coming to this country illegally and they0.99
00:45:31.260think to themselves well this has been happening now for years why has nothing been done to stop1.00
00:45:36.680it and by the way it's not a labor problem the conservatives did it as well and people feel that
00:45:42.500they are in a country which is becoming ever more lawless and I have sympathy with that point of
00:45:47.460view. Yeah, but now, obviously, we're moving into, you know, this is a good example of the nature of
00:45:56.240the debate. I mean, firstly, you're absolutely right, politicians of all persuasions have failed
00:46:03.540to get to grips with the issue. Now, I would put this in, I would divide this into two stages.
00:46:09.780There was a significant period during the 90s, I'd say broadly during the 90s,
00:46:16.260turn of the new millennium where there was a there was an arrogant it goes back to what i was saying
00:46:21.600about the the view of politicians to what i broadly call working people there was an arrogant
00:46:25.940presumption that there was a consensus that immigration was not a good i mean literally
00:46:31.500you've been one of the you know you've both been uh sort of pioneering if you like in terms of your
00:46:37.260your analysis of this problem and i you know and i've held my hand up and said that i was one of
00:46:41.280those people now i would say in the defense of people like me it's because we i grew up in the
00:46:48.08070s and 80s where there was very very significant racism and a very still prevailing backlash against
00:46:55.040against migrant communities that was that was that was toxic and and we were trying to push
00:46:59.580back on that but it is quite clear that in our desire to do that you know the the the road to0.99
00:47:05.080hell be a perfectly good intentions we completely lost lost contact with where the British people0.99
00:47:12.180were and as I say working people were in in relation to that so that's the that's the reality0.99
00:47:17.820but I think more recently and because again it comes back to this idea of easy solutions
00:47:23.960the simple political reality is Rishi Sunak knew just how toxic the immigration issue issue was
00:47:35.300people like Priti Patel not somebody I think who you would call you know you know a sort of
00:47:46.220particularly liberal shrinking violence issues also knew people across the political spectrum
00:47:52.700new but they were faced with in their eyes with a trade-off which was yeah we can curtail
00:47:57.500immigration but that will have a direct economic impact and you know this idea again this lazy0.97
00:48:05.840characterization oh well they're all just cowards and traitors and whatever it wasn't that they made0.94
00:48:10.440a they made a they made a political calculation and I think obviously you know it's quite clear0.98
00:48:16.540certainly in political terms they made the wrong calculation but I think there is another issue
00:48:22.200And I think it's interesting that we've gone from the broader discussion about politics in general to the immigration issue, which again comes back to what you were talking about.
00:48:32.520There are going to be a lot of hard decisions that need to be taken.
00:48:36.160And one of the problems we've got with the current debate is immigration is seen as the magic bullet.
00:48:41.740So if you speak to anybody in the right, you know, how are you going to pay for this? How are you going to pay for that?
00:48:46.760So if you look at, and we might come on to reform specifically, but if you look at any policy announcement from reform, for example, every single policy announcement, every single policy area is run through the prism of immigration.
00:49:00.920This is how we would find the money for defence. We wouldn't be spending it on the migrants.0.96
00:49:06.780This is how we'd find the money to properly fund welfare and give it to needy people.1.00
00:49:10.560We won't be giving any of it to the migrants.1.00
00:49:13.760And aside from the other issues, the nature of the immigration debate1.00
00:49:18.480and the certain toxicity around the debate,
00:49:21.960I think this is one of the most dangerous elements.
00:49:24.260It is, like I said, it is now seen as the new get-out-of-jail-free card.1.00
00:49:29.560Deal with immigration, all of our problems are solved.0.97
00:51:09.500And, you know, we were all, you know, we were all part of that.
00:51:14.600But the point is, you're absolutely right about, you know, that is not where we are with the debate now.
00:51:21.540I don't know a senior politician in this country who, if you sit down and speak privately, would not say, we've got a real problem with immigration.
00:51:33.260people are obviously we appreciate people are very concerned about it and they're right to
00:51:39.700be very concerned about it now maybe some agree you know a couple maybe zach polanski might say
00:51:44.720that maybe ed davy may argue a little bit i'm not sure he would but but i don't know of any
00:51:49.860senior politician the issue in terms of immigration is it's like everything else
00:51:55.200there is not an easy solution to this problem what about illegal immigration because mass
00:52:01.160I was going to come on to that. I was specifically going to come on to that. There is a solution to mass migration, but then there is a cost. And as I said, you know, we see it. There is a problem with getting rich people into the country. But let's just look at the issue of illegal immigration.
00:52:19.560the Tories obviously were aware the Tories a party that traditionally has been very very
00:52:26.880hard line on immigration forget Labour from this for the moment Tories understood firstly that
00:52:32.400there was a problem secondly their identification of the problem aligned themselves with their base
00:52:37.100and their natural support and they particularly understood there was a major problem with small
00:52:42.540boats if they didn't solve it they would be kicked out of office so in all of the areas
00:52:46.500both historical philosophical narrow political interest the previous tory government understood
00:52:54.180they had to do something to get to grip the small boats and they failed now the prevailing narrative
00:52:59.160from their political opponents labor did this in in opposition reform obviously continued to do that
00:53:05.060was they were they were either completely completely bumbling incompetence or be they0.96
00:53:11.040were traitorous cowards who secretly wanted to undermine Britain's way of life. Both of those0.99
00:53:17.560are frankly just not true. I spoke regularly to senior people within the Rishi Sunak government
00:53:27.560and the government's proceeded. They spent every waking hour trying to cobble together some sort
00:53:32.920of solution. Eventually, obviously, they came up with the Rwanda plan, which I mean, I was
00:53:39.160criticised for it at the time, which I actually defended and supported. And some iterations
00:53:44.040around the plan, I think, is probably what is required. But the reality is, again, for
00:53:51.500reasons we all know, the Rwanda plan didn't work. But again, when you've got people like,0.90
00:54:01.440I say, I think Priti Patel was the person who sort of helped negotiate the plan. When
00:54:06.280you've got people like that, even Suella Bravman, I mean, you know, Suella Bravman blames everyone
00:54:10.880else. Even when you've got people like Suella Bravman, who was Home Secretary, who couldn't
00:54:15.300engineer through government, she again now goes for the, they're all traitors sort of line. When
00:54:21.000you've got people like that who can't find a solution, and I know these people and these0.98
00:54:26.260people who were desperate to find it and who are not all bumbling idiots, but are actually quite0.73
00:54:31.360intelligence serious sensible people that says to me this is not the simple this is not an easily0.94
00:54:39.380solved soluble problem and again it comes back to it but again as I was saying at the moment do the
00:54:47.480British people want to hear that at the moment do the British people want to hear that or are they
00:54:52.160attracted to you know I don't know what's that I don't know what the latest proposal is you know0.50
00:54:57.760let's send in the navy and dump them on and invade france and dump them back on the back on the
00:55:01.620beaches the people who watch this show have generally done more thinking about how governments
00:55:06.920operate the most but there's a difference between understanding the problem and having actually
00:55:12.400built insulation against it that's the world michael thorup operates in he's been living as
00:55:17.420an expat for over 25 years visiting more than 110 countries and calling nine of them home he founded
00:55:23.340expat money nearly a decade ago to help others do the same when he helped someone build an
00:55:28.220international plan b the knowledge he brings is entirely first hand every recommendation comes
00:55:33.720from something he has already done himself expat money works specifically with freedom-minded
00:55:39.240families and investors who want to reduce their exposure on any one government or any one system
00:55:45.240second residency second citizenship to offshore banking international real estate legal structures
00:57:19.960We got a Rwanda, the government negotiated a Rwanda scheme.
00:57:25.040The scheme just wasn't, the government wasn't able to make it operational in the sort of number.
00:57:31.780How many people got returned via the Rwanda scheme?
00:57:33.520Yeah, but that's because everyone was screaming about how it's, you know, it's against their human rights and all this other nonsense, right?
00:57:39.760but i think if i was an ordinary person watching this conversation i would be tearing my hair out
00:57:46.980because it's sort of like there's literally there's nothing we can do about anything because
00:57:51.160it's just so complicated and whatever me in the meantime you look over the united states they've
00:57:55.800deported three million people in the last two years i think or under the trump presidency
00:57:59.480they've closed the border effectively i know it's a different situation because it's a land border
00:58:04.600But you can get things done if you have the political will to do it.
00:58:07.280Fine. And what is Donald Trump's current approval rating and how are the Republicans...
00:58:12.920That's not why. His current approval rating is low, but it's because of the Iran war.
00:58:19.460It's because of the Iran war and the rising gas prices.
00:58:22.060No, no, no. There are a wide variety of reasons why Donald Trump is unpopular.
00:58:31.840But one of the key reasons why Donald Trump is unpopular is he has embraced a populist, there are easy solutions form of governance.
00:58:42.700And he has said, he has basically said, don't worry, I've got a simple solution to all this, which was superficially popular.
00:58:52.520And now what he's finding out is that model of governance doesn't work because the American people are withdrawing consent for his model of governance.
00:58:59.720You're talking about, I mean, there is also the other technical point, which is, you know, in the United States, they share a land border with their main route of migration.
00:59:12.240So it's much easier to police. That's the practical reality.
01:00:25.020Well, their argument is that it's far too radical.
01:00:30.580It would put us in the same category as Russia and Belarus,
01:00:35.380who have left the jurisdiction of the European Court of Human Rights,
01:00:40.720and it would be damaging to our international reputation.
01:00:43.560We could replace the ECHR with our own Bill of Rights, democratically reflective of British people's views.
01:00:48.960I actually don't disagree with that. And I've said that.
01:00:52.760I think the idea that it is beyond the wit of us to introduce our own constitutional protections.
01:01:02.820But whatever way you look at it, whatever constitutional protections you put in place,
01:01:08.880And I think, you know, in a separate context, you know, in a separate context, people are running around at the moment worrying about, you know, civil liberties, what's what these this, you know, everyone's been locked up for whatever they they tweet.
01:01:20.780So if you want to strip away all the sort of broader sort of super governmental protections and just simply say, I'll just leave it up to the politicians.
01:01:29.400We can trust them. I'm not prepared. I'm not prepared to do that with any politician.
01:01:33.700So the idea I would just strip away all the human rights now.1.00
01:02:00.120You are looking at probably a decades-long process there.
01:02:05.560Yeah, I wasn't talking about full constitution, but if you had a British Bill of Rights that was specifically addressing the border situation.
01:02:12.980Yeah, but if you're looking at drafting a Bill of Rights, which obviously is, you know, to all intents and purposes, a codified constitution, that would be one of the most fundamental changes in British society, in British history.
01:02:26.000That will take, that will have to be a serious exercise that will have to be done over a period of time.
01:02:31.000This is like Nick Clegg saying 15 years ago
01:02:56.260No, no, no, no, no, no, but there's something else, right?
01:02:58.820You put forward this idea of politicians, you know, not wanting to do it because they're too woke or whatever else.
01:03:04.420And I can't remember the other option. Isn't the other isn't the reality to stupid?1.00
01:03:09.020Isn't there's there's a third option here, which is we don't have politicians with the required backbone to actually get these things done.0.99
01:03:18.720And I'll tell you why, because the moment there is the slightest pushback, they capitulate.
01:03:23.160And isn't good leadership actually taking the decisions, facing down the party and going, look, this needs to happen. This needs to get done. And otherwise, the consequences are simply too awful to contemplate, which is where we are as a country.
01:03:42.220No. I mean, if you genuinely want to be honest, no. And to be honest, what you've done is you've just articulated what is a very, very crowd-pleasing trope, which is frequently peddled.
01:03:56.300The only solution is the politicians don't have backbone. And that's, I mean, if you want to say that, that's not true.
01:04:02.340I mean, our senior politicians, all of them, have considerable backbone, which is why they are senior politicians.
01:04:07.740They've put themselves forward in the public eye.
01:04:10.520They've put themselves up for election.
01:04:12.320As we know in the current environment, they do so at significant personal cost,
01:04:28.280Well, why isn't it that I don't see any of them then going up0.91
01:04:31.860and tackling the French about their part to play in illegal immigration?0.90
01:04:36.420Well, what do you want them to do to the French?0.95
01:04:39.960We can't broadcast that, but let's keep it within the realms of the socially acceptable.0.77
01:04:45.220Well, saying to them that this situation is unsustainable and we can't do this,
01:04:49.340and if you are not going to play your part, then there are going to be consequences to pay.
01:04:55.580If you were a French politician and a British politician came to you and said,
01:05:01.740look this is look old chap this is a little bit off you know this is this is not a sustainable1.00
01:05:08.160position for us you need to keep all those all those nasty illegal immigrants that we1.00
01:05:14.060that we don't want these illegal immigrants that we think are coming over here taking our jobs and1.00
01:05:19.540raping our women you you've got to stop you've got to deploy huge resources amongst your domestic1.00
01:05:26.300security services up the entire french coast to prevent them leaving your country and coming to
01:05:32.980a house if the situation was reversed what would our answer be what our answer who is the politician
01:05:39.820who would say here is my here is my policy here is my policy agenda my policy agenda is to kick0.99
01:05:45.880all these nasty illegal americans in the uk and stopping them from leaving now we had this0.99
01:05:50.360situation i know where reform said they've got this deal with who is it yeah bordella and we0.94
01:05:56.460already see this way i mean i did think at the time hang on a second if you're running on a
01:06:00.120populist program i'm not entirely sure wait so you're saying the french are doing this to us
01:06:03.580deliberately of course they're doing it differently well that is to me if that you don't think they
01:06:10.680are of course i think they are but i've never heard someone admit it publicly so if if we know
01:06:15.360they're doing this deliberately that would necessitate a reaction from our government and
01:06:20.320what do you think that reaction should be i don't know nuclear weapons as far as i'm concerned if
01:06:24.040you want to nuke paris not paris i don't think as i say i'm kidding i don't think i know but but
01:06:31.700what just let's just let's look we talk about these things this is this is why this country0.99
01:06:37.440is so fucked because we say all these outrageous things as if they're normal you're saying that0.98
01:06:42.300France is deliberately sending tens of thousands of illegal immigrants into our country or letting1.00
01:06:48.160them in, allowing them to pass through France and come into our country, facilitating what some
01:06:54.040people might call an invasion. Now, that's a very controversial word. I'm not saying it's an
01:06:58.320invasion. Some people might call it that, whatever. In any other time in human history, if the country
01:07:04.600that was on your border was sending tens of thousands of men into your country without your0.88
01:07:11.380consent, that would be casus belli and the cause for war. Fine. So as I say, what is your practical0.92
01:07:18.300solution? Do you think we should go to war with France? Well, as a matter of general principle,
01:07:23.520yes. But I don't know. I'm not an expert in the different levers we have to influence France. But
01:07:30.780I imagine if we really were prepared to take this issue seriously, there would be things that we
01:07:35.160But we know, but this is the point, you know, we, as again a separate argument, we took a decision as a country to sort of walk away from some of those levers and to sort of, you know, proudly isolate ourselves from our former European partners when we decided to opt for Brexit.
01:07:59.440So a lot of the levers we had at our disposal have been removed.
01:08:04.520But as I said, the reality is, I've, you know, genuinely, I've said to you what, you know, again, I completely understand you've used very emotive language there.
01:08:15.060But I said, fine, but what is your practical solution to this issue?
01:08:17.860And again, neither of you have actually given me a practical solution.
01:08:19.480Well, that's because I don't have the expertise.
01:08:55.520And I would escalate to the point where they started to take this seriously.
01:08:58.360No, but as the various sort of naval experts said at the time, when reform proposed this policy, that is not a practical solution, because we don't have the practical means to sort of pick them up and then deposit them.
01:11:37.120But what they found was that wasn't actually having a significant impact on the traffic because obviously that was an expensive and complex operation to build weird lifeboat systems and send them back.
01:11:54.420So as I said, what the Australians eventually did was they found an offshoring solution.
01:11:59.620If you want a practical solution to this, then the practical solution is, in my humble view, is an offshoring solution rather than the invasion of France or these rather sort of complex naval operations, given we don't really have a navy at the moment.
01:12:20.920The problem is, Dan, and I'm telling you as the average person
01:14:13.520with they did not want to address this yeah so the fact that they did not want to address it for me
01:14:19.260shows a complete lack of backbone that they pretended this problem didn't exist and invariably
01:14:24.780in life when you pretend the problem doesn't exist the problem will only get worse yeah and as i and
01:14:30.700you know i think i was completely open about as i said there are various stages in this debate
01:14:35.200and at the beginning not again it wasn't that the problem wasn't addressed because of a lack of
01:14:41.340backbone the problem wasn't addressed because the various politicians didn't want to get into a
01:14:45.540situation where they were being seen to be bigoted towards migrants in this country but that is i'm
01:14:50.820sorry dan that is a lack of backbone if you're concerned when you get into politics is people
01:14:56.060not wanting to be bigoted is a lack of back no no no no not wanting to not wanting people caving
01:15:01.520to people's perception that is false yeah instead of doing the right thing for your country is a
01:15:06.240No, no, no. But the point is, as I said, in my view, the attempt not to help fuel bigotry is not something I would characterise as a lack of backbone.
01:15:19.080I think where you, and I've acknowledged this, but it is quite clear that there was a moment, you can talk around about Brexit, maybe even before Brexit, where politicians recognised, actually, firstly, there were genuine, really genuine concerns by large numbers of people who couldn't by any stretch of the imagination be characterised as bigoted, even though some people on the liberal left still attempted to do so.
01:15:47.580and there was a recognition that this was a genuine problem
01:17:32.780If over the course of the next week it went from a few hundred people
01:17:37.820to a thousand people to 10,000 people to 100,000 people to a million people,
01:17:42.620Do you think the politicians might move closer towards a solution?
01:17:48.120No, because it doesn't solve any of the fundamentals.
01:17:54.080But the process you described won't happen because the vast majority of the British people,
01:18:01.900whilst they have the concerns that we've been talking about,
01:18:04.440I think we've been talking about boiling anger over this issue,
01:18:07.840You have to separate them and you have to separate their legitimate concerns from the actions and activities and individuals that we've seen parading around in their sort of...
01:18:18.820Yeah, it's not a side that anyone particularly wants to see.
01:18:21.760It was a hypothetical for me making the point that I think I don't agree with you.0.84
01:18:27.580I think if you had a million people expressing outright solidarity with people who are preventing illegal migrants from being allowed into the country, you will see from government that they find the solution pretty quickly.
01:18:40.960what you're saying. Do you genuinely believe that senior politicians such as Andy Burnham,
01:18:50.160such as Shibana Mahmood, such as Kemi Badnock, Chris Phil, do you genuinely think they do not
01:18:58.920understand the level of public concern there is about this? No, I don't. I don't think they don't
01:19:05.180understand the level of public concern. But I think politicians, and we've seen this very clearly,
01:19:09.360work on a very short time window of prioritization
01:19:13.580and they care about what's in the news this evening.
01:23:47.520It is very, very, I agree with a lot of what you've been saying on this
01:23:51.160And a big part of what I try to do, certainly when I'm writing in social media, is to try and get people on the left to understand, look, this is a very serious issue. People have legitimate concerns. You have to address it. You have to take the lead in addressing it.
01:24:07.940You can't leave it to, you know, people on the right,0.96
01:24:11.720and you certainly can't leave it to people in balaclavas.
01:24:15.700The practical political reality that is, though,
01:24:18.620if the right tries to align themselves with these guys
01:24:21.560and doesn't very, very clearly distance itself from these guys,
01:24:24.940then people on the left are going to be rubbing their hands.
01:24:28.020That's the practical political reality.
01:24:30.860Because my concern is, Dan, and I think why my frustration was showing,
01:24:37.120is because i think we're in a very precarious position this country it's in a very precarious
01:24:42.420position economically but it's in a very precarious position culturally and societally
01:24:47.960and the fact that you have these guys in portsmouth and the fact that there seems to be
01:24:53.960gaining some traction and some sympathy from the general public is worrying because what it's saying
01:25:01.080where's the evidence they're getting sympathy from those guys specifically are getting sympathy from
01:25:06.000i was on the train come this is anecdotal of course i was on the train coming into london
01:25:09.680this morning uh young guy came and sat opposite me very respectable works in the city you know
01:25:15.760girlfriend all that and uh he you know he was asking me what i think about it i said look it's
01:25:22.800not a pretty side it's not something i'm in favor of happening but it shows you the failure of the
01:25:28.240entire political system to deal with this issue and he was like yeah i totally understand where
01:25:32.080they're coming from and there's plenty of people yeah but again it's anecdotal that i've spoken to
01:25:38.180as well who will come up and have a conversation about it my point is this this that is a very bad
01:25:45.580symptom societally because what that is saying is we do not have trust in the powers that be
01:25:51.760yeah but i think that the reality is i don't think we needed guys in balaclavas wandering around
01:34:39.280And so that would just like people at Palestine marches, I thought, were treated very, very leniently by the police because a lot of them were breaking the law and they were not arrested.
01:34:47.880Right. So we want equality of treatment for all people. And we don't tend to see it a protest, in my opinion. Right. But beyond that, what I'm saying to you is, yeah, you say, you know, a lot of people will be turned off. I agree. I think.
01:35:00.080I mean, that's a practical. That will be a practical.
01:35:02.080No, I completely agree. I think I think that's you're entirely right about that. And it gives a lot of people who don't want to talk about the small boats issue a thing to point their finger at and say everyone who cares about the small boats is a balaclava wearing thug.
01:35:15.760Exactly. I can't even remember how we got onto this issue. But I feel like we've covered the small boats sufficiently. The other thing that it's probably worth talking with you about is it's fair to say you're not Reform's biggest fan. You've made that very clear.
01:35:32.980I would actually slightly characterize that. It's not that I'm a I'm not a you know, this isn't a football match. I'm not a cheerleader. I'm not a supporter or an opponent. I'm just genuinely assessing where I think.
01:35:44.280Your genuine assessment is you don't like reform.
01:35:46.760No, my general assessment, I like lots of people in reform.
01:35:52.100I wouldn't say I'm a supporter of their party,
01:35:55.560although I'm not actually a supporter of any political party at the moment.
01:35:58.520But it is important to say I have written what would widely be regarded
01:36:04.660as a number of positive pieces about reform.
01:36:33.940And I said, this has been a surprisingly busy summer politically,
01:36:37.300of which Andy Burnham and obviously Keir Stammer is a part.
01:36:39.820But the other reason, certainly through the heart of the summer, was it's actually been a summer dominated by reform and debate about reform, precipitated primarily by Nigel Farage's decision to call that, you know, bizarre by-election in Clapton.
01:36:57.940And if you remember the narrative surrounding the by-election, the by-election was this had been called primarily as an act of desperation by Nigel Farage.
01:37:09.340And it was his, I think it was described by some people as his last throw of the dice to achieve two primary objectives.
01:37:17.480One was to draw a line under the financial scandals, dogging reform, to basically convince the media to stop talking about them.
01:37:25.980and I would simply put it to get the press to back off.
01:37:31.700The second thing was to use what he believed would be a strong mandate
01:37:36.560from his supporters in constituency to transform the broader narrative
01:37:42.700around reform, to arrest their decline in the polls
01:37:46.060and arrest the decline in his personal ratings.
01:37:50.780It is quite clear that he has failed in his objective.
01:37:55.240Obviously, the questions about reforms, financing and his role in that are intensifying.
01:38:04.480And that intensifies to an extent that they are cutting through.
01:38:08.200There was polling, I think, yesterday or the day before, which showed the extent to which now the party is associated with Sleaze.
01:38:14.120He's associated with Sleaze. This issue is cutting through to the electorate.
01:38:19.260And as we all know from experience, once a political party becomes tainted with the brand of sleaze, it is very difficult to remove and it can only be removed with a sort of a great overhaul within and sort of rebranding of the organisation.
01:38:38.320the second thing is that this compounds a fundamental problem that nigel farage has
01:38:45.960which is if you look at the data he is incredibly popular with around about 20 percent of the
01:38:54.480electorate and massively popular you know they he walks down the street people pour out pubs
01:39:00.220they love him his people who are members and activists within reform will walk over
01:39:05.320broken glass for the guy. But he is also massively unpopular with 60% of the electorate.
01:39:15.660And these are people, the people who dislike Nigel Farage now really dislike him.
01:39:20.540And they will simultaneously vote for basically anyone to prevent him and reform securing
01:39:29.660securing high office and entering Downing Street and those numbers are just simply too toxic
01:39:38.020and there is a narrative and you know myself and my Westminster colleagues have you know feed into
01:39:45.180this about Nigel Farage being this great sort of this great showman this man who constantly
01:39:53.060reinvents himself normal rules of politics don't apply to him that was the case for Nigel Farage
01:39:58.860maybe 12 sort of 18 months ago that's not the case now nigel farage is now broadly in the
01:40:05.680situation where boris was somebody who had a similar you know degree of broader public popularity
01:40:12.520when he was in the midst of the sort of the whole covid crisis and i do not see any way
01:40:22.820that he transforms his political fortunes as a result but crucially it doesn't really matter
01:40:31.380whether I think he does he can or can't one thing that we're now seeing inside reform speak to
01:40:38.640people inside reform it is quite clear that with inside reform that is the perception there is now
01:40:44.160a clear perception within reform that Nigel Farage is coming to the end of his leadership
01:40:47.960And that is starting to create and stimulate what is effectively becoming a sort of the leadership election and the race to succeed.
01:40:57.260Nigel Farage is actually underway now. You can see it in terms of what Zia Yusuf is doing.
01:41:02.760He is basically setting out his leadership store. We had his sort of virtual leadership campaign video, which he launched at party conference.
01:41:09.760His interventions, which are increasingly at odds with what Nigel Farage is saying, completely at odds with his colleagues.
01:41:17.960As a result of that, the other leadership contenders, Robert Jenrick in particular, we'll see it with Richard Tice, they're starting to manoeuvre as well.
01:41:25.760So you put that whole thing together and that would be very, very difficult for a major political party, a major established political party to sustain.
01:41:38.600For a party-like reform, a new party, a young party, a party with still a relatively low political base, there is absolutely no way, in my view, it can get from where it is now to actually being potentially a party of government. As I said, I suspect there'll be a general election next year, by a general election next year, and certainly not with Nigel Farage remaining as the leader.
01:44:07.180I think Richard Tice has thought, you know, deeply about the professionalisation of reform.
01:44:12.360And, you know, I've spoken to Richard about, he was on TV yesterday saying, who the hell is Dan Hodges?
01:44:18.840But Richard and I have actually had some really interesting discussions about how you sort of his strategy for mainstreaming the reform brand, et cetera.