TRIGGERnometry - Rory Stewart： “We’re Living in a World of Fairy Tales”

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00:00:30.000 The problem is that democracy partly depends on fairy stories.

00:00:35.600 The trick of populism is that, of course, there's always a kernel of truth in this.

00:00:39.120 The point is not, is Farage right in his criticisms?

00:00:42.160 The point is, what would he represent and what would he do if he was in government?

00:00:45.620 As with most of these things, when you try to do it, you run into a lot of complication.

00:00:50.180 At the point where you go, well, I don't want to leave the ECHR because it's in...

00:00:54.280 That's when the person says, well, in that case, F you, I'm voting for Farage.

00:00:58.600 And that's how you create populism.

00:01:01.220 When it works, you know, you're the great reformer.

00:01:04.120 You're Margaret Thatcher.

00:01:05.520 When it doesn't work, you're Liz Truss. 1.00

00:01:07.740 You're a feckless, imprudent, foolish person who didn't bother to take decent advice. 0.99

00:01:13.980 Ross Stewart, welcome to Trigonometry. 0.99

00:01:15.540 It's great to finally have you on.

00:01:17.060 Really looking forward to speaking with you.

00:01:18.780 The first thing we wanted to talk to you about is, obviously, this is going out after the election,

00:01:23.300 but you've made it clear that you are not supporting the Conservatives in this one,

00:01:27.800 and perhaps maybe even going as far left as the Greens.

00:01:30.340 So what does Conservatives mean to you?

00:01:33.560 What is it conservative in your definition?

00:01:36.660 It means that famously, the problem with Conservative politics is that it's very difficult to define.

00:01:43.400 But I suppose this left-right division exists in every country.

00:01:49.300 And one way of framing it is that the left tends to have a very optimistic, progressive vision of the future.

00:01:59.620 And Conservatives tend to be more respectful of the way things are, tradition, the past.

00:02:06.700 In a UK context, that means having a different relationship to history, to landscape, to architecture, to the Constitution.

00:02:18.460 And I suppose a different sense of what identity is.

00:02:25.440 I mean, the question is, for any politician in any country, has to be, to some extent, a nationalist.

00:02:36.520 I mean, a moderate nationalist, you can be an extreme nationalist, but you are representing this country.

00:02:42.300 And what is that thing that you're representing?

00:02:45.280 Is there an identity to that place that makes it distinct from other places that's been inherited from the past?

00:02:55.440 Is it just the group of people who are alive today, or is it also the people who lived and died, the people who are yet to be born?

00:03:03.900 What kind of obligations do we have to the past and the future?

00:03:10.500 What are our ideas of values?

00:03:13.820 Truth, beauty.

00:03:14.940 And these aren't things which are very difficult, which are easy to articulate, because generally speaking, contemporary politics gets very quickly into a conversation about money.

00:03:26.760 So, that being the case, I guess what I'm getting at is, what are your disagreements and frustrations with the state of the conservative family in the UK, more broadly, that have caused you to move so far away from it, while still calling yourself a conservative?

00:03:46.680 Because you're not saying, I've become a Green, are you?

00:03:49.620 You still claim to be conservative.

00:03:52.040 Yeah.

00:03:52.140 So, what is that dissonance?

00:03:55.040 So, I think it's largely about moral values. 0.98

00:03:59.580 So, for me, Boris Johnson was a ludicrous, dishonest buffoon who should never have been allowed to be prime minister, and he was facilitated by my colleagues in the Conservative Party. 0.95

00:04:11.680 Liz Truss was a reckless, risk-taking, glib prime minister who did huge damage to our economy and should never have been enabled by the Conservative Party. 1.00

00:04:25.640 The hard version of Brexit that was pursued was divisive and damaging when the Conservative Party had an opportunity to bring the country together and try to find a compromise.

00:04:39.080 And so, I think in terms of ethical standards, they let themselves down with Boris Johnson, in terms of thoughtful policy, they let themselves down with Liz Truss, and in terms of an idea of politics as finding compromise in central ground, they let themselves down with a hard Brexit.

00:04:58.200 So, it's a sense that they betrayed important values, much more than the question of right or left.

00:05:12.420 Rory, as well, there's a competency crisis, I would argue, in the Conservative Party.

00:05:16.800 You look at the country they inherited in 2010, and you look at the country that they're handing over to the Labour Party.

00:05:24.360 I mean, let's be fair, the Labour Party are going to win. We all know it.

00:05:27.260 I would argue the country is in a worse state after a 14-year Conservative term than it was before.

00:05:34.940 Yeah. Yeah. Sure.

00:05:38.020 And how does that make you feel, as a Conservative, that this was the party that you believed in, that you were part of?

00:05:44.660 And seeing the way that the country has been handled?

00:05:49.800 Well, I think how I feel doesn't interest me very much.

00:05:55.780 I think, what I think is interesting is the way that you frame that.

00:06:01.240 So, I think you've got two things going there.

00:06:04.660 Country's in a worse state, I agree.

00:06:07.120 But you ascribe it to a competency crisis.

00:06:09.340 So, you have some idea in your head that somehow, if there had been some other group of people,

00:06:15.220 these kind of super-competent people, the country wouldn't be in the mess that it's in.

00:06:21.200 And that depends how much you think that the problems that we face in this country are actually quite structural,

00:06:28.900 quite deep, quite difficult,

00:06:30.640 and how much you think it's just down to the fact that Rishi Sunak's no good at his job.

00:06:34.660 My guess is that these problems that we face are very similar to the problems that people are facing in France,

00:06:42.140 that they're facing in Germany, that they'll eventually face the United States.

00:06:46.140 They are much more to do with a population's aging.

00:06:52.200 So, what's the single biggest fact that explains the problems of the NHS

00:06:57.640 is that we have twice as many people aged over 85 compared to where we were in 1979.

00:07:04.260 And each one of those people cost 10 times as much as somebody aged between 18 and 25 to deal with.

00:07:11.440 Second problem, COVID.

00:07:14.600 For better or for worse, this government,

00:07:17.360 but with the agreement of Labour and Lib Dems, a huge consensus around this,

00:07:20.980 decided to lock the country down,

00:07:22.700 took the biggest recession that the country had experienced in 300 years

00:07:27.940 and spent 400 billion pounds,

00:07:30.740 that's 400,000 million pounds,

00:07:35.180 in payouts and support for people during COVID,

00:07:37.860 which have now left us with this enormous debt.

00:07:43.940 These are the real fundamentals.

00:07:46.360 And there are other things that we don't quite understand around the fringes.

00:07:49.020 There are 800,000 people economically inactive,

00:07:51.700 which isn't happening in other countries,

00:07:53.160 but nobody really understands why that's happening.

00:07:56.600 We are an economy and a structure that's incredibly dependent on immigration.

00:08:02.740 So, the government's taken in about 1.4 million people net over the last two years.

00:08:09.260 Why?

00:08:10.220 Well, because if you go to a hospital or you go to a care home,

00:08:12.580 you discover that all the people with the skills in nursing,

00:08:15.120 care and medicine are not from Britain.

00:08:17.580 They're from other countries. 0.98

00:08:19.020 And the country can only run on that basis.

00:08:21.600 On the other hand,

00:08:22.260 we have a population that doesn't want more immigration.

00:08:25.640 And it has a point because we're also short of houses.

00:08:28.240 You bring in 1.4 million more people,

00:08:30.080 where are they going to live?

00:08:31.440 Where's the road infrastructure?

00:08:33.000 Where are the schools to support them?

00:08:35.400 And if you're creating a pyramid

00:08:36.660 where you're always supporting your older people

00:08:38.160 by bringing in more and more young people,

00:08:40.980 well, that logically is just going to keep expanding

00:08:43.460 until you'd end up with a population of 150 million people

00:08:45.980 in what's already the most populated country on earth.

00:08:48.780 So, I suppose what I'm trying to say is that I fear

00:08:53.120 you will find that things are not much better

00:08:56.040 after five years of the Labour government.

00:08:58.080 And then you will be tempted to say,

00:09:00.000 look at these bunch of incompetence

00:09:02.980 because we're not prepared to step back enough

00:09:05.760 and see that fundamentally the problems are not

00:09:08.700 about whether or not Rishi Sunak's bright

00:09:10.600 or does his job well.

00:09:12.820 Fundamentally the problems are that we haven't managed

00:09:14.920 to face these structural issues as a country.

00:09:19.180 I agree with you,

00:09:20.320 but my argument is not particularly with Rishi Sunak.

00:09:22.920 It's a Conservative Party as a whole.

00:09:24.560 Well, when they came in in 2010,

00:09:26.480 they knew that there was a housing crisis.

00:09:29.420 They have done little or nothing to solve that problem.

00:09:32.180 And we're talking about we have a population crisis,

00:09:35.380 not enough babies are being born.

00:09:36.880 Well, if you don't allow young people 1.00

00:09:38.900 to get on the housing ladder

00:09:40.300 to actually buy a place so that they can settle down,

00:09:44.760 get married, have children,

00:09:46.240 then isn't that the natural reaction

00:09:48.780 to your own inability or unwillingness

00:09:52.580 to deal with this one thing?

00:09:55.980 So first thing is that

00:10:00.340 there's been a terrible failure on housing.

00:10:03.220 You're right.

00:10:04.420 But maybe the thing you're not acknowledging

00:10:06.360 is that this was one of their number one priorities.

00:10:11.080 So they set building 300,000 houses a year

00:10:14.160 as being top priority.

00:10:15.660 They put a lot of the most talented,

00:10:18.100 competent people in the government

00:10:20.420 behind trying to build those houses.

00:10:22.580 People like Michael Gove, Oliver Letwin, Greg Clark

00:10:27.080 were given these portfolios and they failed.

00:10:30.300 So why did they fail?

00:10:32.100 And that's what I'm going to flip around to you

00:10:33.620 because you seem to imagine

00:10:35.020 that that failure is somehow a failure of what?

00:10:38.620 Well, what are you hinting at, Rory?

00:10:39.720 Because you've talked in the past

00:10:41.060 and we've had people on the show,

00:10:42.620 some of whom you've just criticized,

00:10:44.460 by the way, like Liz Truss,

00:10:46.120 Sola Bravman and others,

00:10:47.480 Steve Hilton, David Cameron's former advisor,

00:10:49.440 who all made the same point that you've made in the past,

00:10:52.220 which is it's actually very, very hard

00:10:53.760 to get anything done when you're elected

00:10:55.320 because the civil service won't let you.

00:10:57.580 Essentially, it's kind of as fairly simple as that.

00:11:00.880 Is that what you're hinting at?

00:11:02.320 Or is there something else going on

00:11:03.760 that you think is causing us

00:11:05.160 to not be able to solve our problems?

00:11:06.880 I think the structure is immobilizing people everywhere.

00:11:17.100 So that's why I'm doubtful

00:11:19.020 that Labour will be able to address these issues.

00:11:21.300 We're equally doubtful, by the way.

00:11:24.300 So what are the problems?

00:11:26.500 Well, look, I've written a book called Politics on the Edge,

00:11:29.760 which is trying to talk in detail

00:11:31.840 about some of the issues of getting anything done

00:11:34.320 as a minister, and some of that is about the civil service.

00:11:37.180 But there's a broader question about the public.

00:11:39.440 I mean, why is it that these houses are not being built?

00:11:45.240 The way in which planning works,

00:11:49.280 our concerns about biodiversity and climate,

00:11:53.300 our concerns about landscape,

00:11:57.060 our concerns about rural communities,

00:11:59.140 the way in which ownership structures work

00:12:03.780 in development companies,

00:12:06.160 the way in which land income operates.

00:12:10.300 So the minister trying to, say,

00:12:14.560 I want to build houses

00:12:15.580 is looking at 15 different factors,

00:12:20.240 all of which needs to be

00:12:22.280 his own head separately.

00:12:26.140 Biodiversity, right?

00:12:27.260 One of the things that stops building

00:12:31.140 is that for very good reasons,

00:12:34.140 we care about species,

00:12:38.180 nature, biodiversity, water,

00:12:39.920 and that rules out quite a lot of sites quite quickly.

00:12:44.000 We care about archaeology.

00:12:46.300 And if you find a sense of archaeological site,

00:12:49.000 that also has an impact on planning.

00:12:51.540 We care about democracy.

00:12:53.120 We care about local consultation, right?

00:12:55.300 We want to feel that a local town or village can say,

00:12:59.180 we object.

00:13:00.880 We think this could be built in a better way, right?

00:13:04.060 Why do they get stuff built in China very quickly?

00:13:07.980 They don't care.

00:13:09.420 And drive it through.

00:13:10.320 But we have to be a bit more honest

00:13:13.660 about what the trade-offs are here.

00:13:15.380 I mean, we have a dream

00:13:16.500 that this kind of competent,

00:13:18.960 technocratic government's going to come in. 1.00

00:13:20.560 But usually our dream is based

00:13:22.360 on a culture or a society

00:13:24.580 very unlike our own,

00:13:26.200 in which, you know,

00:13:28.260 the Chinese government

00:13:28.920 will literally move an entire community

00:13:30.780 to drive a train line through.

00:13:32.680 They will ultimately imprison people

00:13:35.720 if they object.

00:13:36.460 I mean, I've been through this

00:13:38.940 in my own neighbourhood here in South Ken.

00:13:43.940 They've been trying since,

00:13:45.500 before I was born,

00:13:46.260 since 1972

00:13:47.340 to build something on top of the tube station.

00:13:51.080 And it's been blocked again and again

00:13:53.060 for 51 years.

00:13:53.940 And finally,

00:13:56.820 they've managed to get it through.

00:13:57.960 And we're all outraged.

00:14:00.240 Why are we outraged?

00:14:01.380 We're outraged

00:14:01.940 because it's not delivering

00:14:02.960 affordable housing,

00:14:04.000 because the architecture's ugly,

00:14:05.740 because it's bringing in

00:14:07.160 a supermarket

00:14:08.320 that's going to destroy

00:14:09.320 the local shops.

00:14:12.320 And we're all saying,

00:14:14.120 you know,

00:14:14.280 we're in favour of development,

00:14:15.680 but we want development

00:14:17.280 that is beautiful,

00:14:18.120 delivers affordable housing

00:14:19.020 and doesn't destroy local shops.

00:14:20.300 And Transport for London

00:14:21.280 is saying,

00:14:21.980 we've got to generate money here.

00:14:23.740 We've got to get a lift

00:14:25.000 into South Ken tube station.

00:14:26.600 And the way to do it

00:14:27.520 is to build this rather ugly,

00:14:29.540 large structure

00:14:30.340 and bring in a supermarket.

00:14:33.160 And that's kind of microcosm

00:14:34.640 of what's happening

00:14:35.120 in every community

00:14:35.800 around this country,

00:14:36.780 that all of us

00:14:38.520 want more housing,

00:14:40.220 in theory,

00:14:40.860 all of us want more development.

00:14:42.580 But in practice,

00:14:44.540 we're all very bright,

00:14:46.460 educated, well-informed people

00:14:48.040 who care passionately

00:14:48.900 about our area.

00:14:49.540 And as soon as you propose anything,

00:14:51.580 it's not quite that we're MIMBYs,

00:14:53.140 it's that we've all

00:14:54.300 able to come up

00:14:55.600 with 50 arguments

00:14:56.820 for why they shouldn't be doing it

00:14:58.240 in quite the way

00:14:58.840 they're doing it.

00:15:02.020 So that to me

00:15:04.380 seems like an area

00:15:07.340 where leadership is required

00:15:08.940 because leadership

00:15:09.840 is about selling people

00:15:11.320 on the idea

00:15:12.140 that you and I

00:15:14.140 have to sacrifice

00:15:15.380 a little bit

00:15:16.200 because you and I

00:15:17.260 are going to have

00:15:17.680 grandchildren one day

00:15:19.160 and we want them

00:15:20.100 to be able to buy a flat

00:15:21.400 before they're 40.

00:15:23.040 Right, right.

00:15:23.420 But if I take the example

00:15:25.860 of South Kent Sheep Station,

00:15:27.700 I turn around

00:15:28.380 to you, say,

00:15:28.860 the leader,

00:15:29.280 my grandchildren,

00:15:30.400 I turn around

00:15:30.780 and say,

00:15:31.000 no, no, no,

00:15:31.300 my proposal

00:15:32.200 has more affordable housing

00:15:33.360 than your proposal.

00:15:35.260 Okay.

00:15:36.040 And to which

00:15:37.360 Transport for London

00:15:38.080 says the economics

00:15:39.000 don't work.

00:15:40.120 Okay, then...

00:15:40.760 We can't generate

00:15:41.460 the money

00:15:41.920 delivering the affordable housing.

00:15:43.500 Then that seems

00:15:44.260 like a fair trade-off

00:15:45.160 to me.

00:15:45.500 The Transport for London

00:15:47.320 building its ugly stuff.

00:15:48.660 Yeah.

00:15:49.160 Okay.

00:15:49.840 But if we look at London,

00:15:52.560 this philosophy of building

00:15:54.260 has resulted in nine elms,

00:15:56.820 has resulted in 50,000,

00:15:58.260 60,000 unaffordable

00:15:59.640 apartment blocks going up

00:16:01.240 because the developers

00:16:02.100 are trying to build

00:16:02.860 as quickly as possible

00:16:03.680 and generate as much money

00:16:04.520 as possible

00:16:04.900 and it's not resulting

00:16:06.240 in affordable housing.

00:16:07.360 What I think we need

00:16:08.540 is millions more council houses.

00:16:11.180 But to build council houses 1.00

00:16:12.760 on Transport for London

00:16:13.900 or mayor of London land

00:16:15.660 would involve

00:16:16.480 totally changing

00:16:17.860 our financial model.

00:16:18.720 We'd have to accept

00:16:19.560 much lower returns.

00:16:22.260 You could do it financially.

00:16:23.540 I mean, you could borrow

00:16:24.280 the money,

00:16:24.660 you could invest

00:16:25.240 and you could get income back,

00:16:26.440 but it would be

00:16:27.000 a much lower return

00:16:29.120 than we're used to getting.

00:16:30.900 And I don't see anybody

00:16:33.140 yet prepared to say

00:16:34.920 we're not going to finance

00:16:36.980 Transport for London

00:16:37.880 off property development.

00:16:38.880 We're going to make

00:16:40.240 these plots of land

00:16:43.420 not lose money,

00:16:46.040 but we're not going

00:16:46.600 to try to generate

00:16:47.300 big bucks off them.

00:16:49.140 Why not?

00:16:50.580 Why won't anyone say that?

00:16:53.000 Because that would require

00:16:56.680 the taxpayer putting more

00:16:59.620 of their taxes

00:17:00.280 into running Transport for London.

00:17:02.020 So if Transport for London

00:17:04.660 doesn't finance

00:17:06.100 the signaling

00:17:06.920 on the Piccadilly line

00:17:07.780 or the new lift

00:17:08.700 off cheap property development

00:17:12.020 that doesn't deliver

00:17:12.700 affordable housing,

00:17:14.100 somebody else has got

00:17:14.920 to pay for it.

00:17:15.960 And that will mean

00:17:16.940 not the property developers

00:17:18.180 paying for it,

00:17:18.760 it means the rest of us

00:17:19.500 paying for it

00:17:20.040 either through

00:17:20.580 higher tube fares

00:17:22.100 or paying bigger taxes.

00:17:24.760 So the whole

00:17:25.820 of the British government

00:17:27.240 is kind of,

00:17:28.600 is often different versions

00:17:29.820 of Ponzi schemes

00:17:30.680 where in order

00:17:32.280 to avoid

00:17:33.220 charging people taxes,

00:17:36.720 which seem to be unpopular,

00:17:39.000 we end up

00:17:40.240 doing these weird

00:17:41.300 financing initiatives,

00:17:42.260 a lot of which

00:17:42.720 is trying to crowd in money

00:17:43.760 from the private sector

00:17:44.720 by offering them profit

00:17:46.780 in return for money

00:17:48.600 being subsidized

00:17:49.560 in government.

00:17:50.820 So that being the case,

00:17:52.220 Rory,

00:17:52.820 looking at the

00:17:53.560 Conservative Party,

00:17:55.280 does it actually

00:17:57.020 have a future

00:17:57.840 in its current state?

00:17:59.820 Well, I'm worried

00:18:05.520 about the Conservative Party.

00:18:06.560 I mean, I'm very worried

00:18:07.380 that they are

00:18:08.260 going to be tempted

00:18:09.740 to lurch towards

00:18:11.140 the kind of

00:18:11.680 Nigel Farage reform wing

00:18:13.360 and that the reason

00:18:15.360 why they'll probably

00:18:16.280 lurch towards that wing

00:18:17.640 is that

00:18:18.780 Keir Salmer's now

00:18:21.040 occupied the center ground

00:18:22.400 and the risk is

00:18:23.620 that over the next

00:18:24.260 five years,

00:18:24.900 for a lot of the problems

00:18:25.640 we've talked about

00:18:26.380 in this show,

00:18:28.360 they're not going

00:18:28.860 to be able to deliver.

00:18:29.820 Keir Salmer

00:18:30.600 will not be able

00:18:31.360 to do stuff

00:18:32.060 in the next five years

00:18:32.780 and that will provide

00:18:33.560 more opportunity

00:18:34.340 for populists

00:18:35.440 because, I mean,

00:18:37.040 we can see it.

00:18:38.640 We can see it in Canada

00:18:39.640 where Trudeau's not performing.

00:18:41.080 We can see it in Germany

00:18:41.800 where Schultz is not performing.

00:18:42.960 We can see it in France

00:18:43.760 where Macron's not performing.

00:18:45.260 In all these cases,

00:18:46.980 you have people

00:18:48.000 who are broadly speaking

00:18:49.120 center-left,

00:18:50.900 moderate,

00:18:51.520 fiscally conservative

00:18:52.280 politicians

00:18:52.820 just not delivering.

00:18:53.760 And the reason

00:18:55.200 they're not delivering

00:18:55.800 is because of

00:18:56.720 the kind of big structures

00:18:58.400 of the way

00:18:59.240 we're aging,

00:19:00.420 the way our economies work,

00:19:02.460 the way our welfare states

00:19:03.700 are financed.

00:19:04.620 And, you know,

00:19:09.000 we want, of course,

00:19:10.580 in the way

00:19:11.000 that you're doing now

00:19:12.140 to say,

00:19:13.860 well, so, you know,

00:19:14.940 what does that mean

00:19:15.500 for the Tory party?

00:19:16.200 What does that mean

00:19:16.640 for the Labour party?

00:19:17.400 And we want to find villains.

00:19:20.460 We want to say,

00:19:21.000 these guys aren't competent, 0.94

00:19:22.120 these guys are terrible 0.85

00:19:22.900 because it's quite cheering up.

00:19:25.340 I mean, if that's the case,

00:19:27.380 then our life's about

00:19:28.120 to get much better.

00:19:30.000 It'd be lovely

00:19:30.820 if we lived in a world.

00:19:32.460 Well, let me reiterate,

00:19:33.420 nobody in this room

00:19:34.460 is under the illusion

00:19:35.480 that life's about

00:19:36.260 to get much better.

00:19:37.360 Nobody, honestly,

00:19:38.560 I'm not thinking

00:19:39.400 there's Dawn Butler

00:19:40.360 coming to the rescue.

00:19:41.960 Right.

00:19:42.440 But the problem

00:19:43.420 is that democracy

00:19:44.380 partly depends

00:19:47.400 on fairy stories.

00:19:49.200 Depends on an idea.

00:19:50.220 You vote out one party,

00:19:51.420 you vote in another.

00:19:53.200 Stuff's going to change,

00:19:54.280 get better.

00:19:54.900 That if things are bad,

00:19:55.960 it's because

00:19:56.560 there are a bunch 1.00

00:19:57.640 of idiots in power. 1.00

00:19:59.380 If we look at someone 1.00

00:20:00.540 like Rishi Sunak,

00:20:02.120 who is he?

00:20:02.840 He's a,

00:20:03.560 you know,

00:20:04.900 he's a bright,

00:20:05.800 hardworking,

00:20:06.800 diligent guy.

00:20:07.880 I mean,

00:20:08.040 I've got big problems

00:20:08.800 with him.

00:20:09.260 I've got problems

00:20:09.900 with his sense of vision,

00:20:11.400 his leadership.

00:20:12.480 Why?

00:20:15.940 Why have I got problems

00:20:17.020 with him?

00:20:17.200 I've got problems

00:20:20.020 with him

00:20:20.460 because he's not able

00:20:22.240 to step back

00:20:23.160 and see the bigger picture.

00:20:26.020 But it's not that

00:20:26.740 I think his problem

00:20:28.200 is that he's,

00:20:29.880 the normal way

00:20:30.620 he's criticised

00:20:31.280 is, you know,

00:20:31.680 he's kind of privileged,

00:20:32.860 he's out of touch,

00:20:34.100 he's entitled, 0.99

00:20:35.320 he's corrupt, 0.98

00:20:36.420 he's, you know, 0.99

00:20:37.080 his wife's making money, 0.98

00:20:39.560 he's incompetent, 1.00

00:20:40.620 he's cruel. 1.00

00:20:41.960 I don't think

00:20:42.340 any of that's true.

00:20:42.980 I think the guys

00:20:44.040 are, you know,

00:20:45.800 brighter than us,

00:20:46.920 he's more hardworking

00:20:48.080 than us,

00:20:48.740 he's more,

00:20:49.580 you know,

00:20:49.840 he's a,

00:20:50.420 he would be a successful

00:20:51.440 banker,

00:20:52.020 a successful lawyer,

00:20:53.000 you know,

00:20:53.280 be successful in almost

00:20:54.060 any business.

00:20:55.200 He's just no good

00:20:55.980 as prime minister.

00:20:56.940 And that's because

00:20:58.220 the qualities you require

00:21:00.180 are very unusual.

00:21:02.380 They require

00:21:03.480 an incredible

00:21:04.780 extent of courage,

00:21:07.500 vision,

00:21:08.680 values,

00:21:10.340 moral integrity,

00:21:10.980 which is extremely

00:21:12.180 improbable

00:21:13.200 for any of us

00:21:14.100 to generate.

00:21:14.540 To do what, Rory?

00:21:15.900 You keep hinting

00:21:17.140 at these big structural

00:21:18.040 problems or even

00:21:18.900 explicitly describing

00:21:20.100 them and no one,

00:21:21.220 I think,

00:21:21.500 would disagree

00:21:22.000 with your analysis.

00:21:24.020 But the question is,

00:21:26.140 if somebody came along

00:21:27.640 who was this perfect

00:21:28.840 prime minister

00:21:29.700 a la Rory Stewart,

00:21:31.100 what would they

00:21:32.320 then go and do?

00:21:33.500 What do you think

00:21:34.320 actually needs doing?

00:21:38.000 Reform of the NHS

00:21:38.940 dramatically.

00:21:41.780 I mean,

00:21:41.960 it's now chewing up

00:21:43.520 four out of every

00:21:44.480 ten pounds

00:21:45.100 of our current

00:21:45.560 expenditure.

00:21:46.400 We're spending

00:21:46.660 four times as much

00:21:47.760 on the NHS

00:21:48.260 as we were in 1979

00:21:49.600 in real terms,

00:21:51.720 twice as much

00:21:52.380 in terms of our economy.

00:21:53.920 And it's not delivering.

00:21:55.300 When you say reform,

00:21:56.260 how?

00:21:56.640 Because your argument

00:21:57.460 is we've got way

00:21:58.220 more older people

00:21:58.920 who need way more

00:21:59.840 expensive care.

00:22:01.100 How do you reform that?

00:22:04.720 We would have

00:22:05.640 to stop doing,

00:22:07.640 and reform always

00:22:08.460 is the same thing.

00:22:09.580 It's about prioritization.

00:22:10.640 And prioritization

00:22:11.280 means you stop

00:22:12.020 doing some things.

00:22:13.820 So it's very,

00:22:15.520 very tough.

00:22:16.580 Oh, I can see that.

00:22:18.040 Yeah, yeah.

00:22:18.700 And so basically

00:22:19.420 what you're saying

00:22:20.200 to people is that

00:22:21.040 there is nowhere

00:22:21.660 in the world,

00:22:22.880 nowhere except

00:22:23.720 for Britain now,

00:22:25.160 which is trying

00:22:25.860 to maintain a system

00:22:27.440 that doesn't have

00:22:28.500 a co-pay

00:22:29.980 or insurance model

00:22:31.080 as part of it.

00:22:31.660 Okay.

00:22:32.840 So reform the NHS,

00:22:33.980 make it part co-pay.

00:22:34.860 What else?

00:22:35.280 What else does a bright,

00:22:36.620 visionary,

00:22:37.640 courageous,

00:22:38.620 principled leader

00:22:39.200 need to do?

00:22:39.980 Planning reform

00:22:40.780 is central.

00:22:41.840 I mean,

00:22:41.980 if we're to build

00:22:42.460 infrastructure,

00:22:43.100 we need to do that.

00:22:44.900 I think you probably,

00:22:46.720 not probably,

00:22:47.540 definitely from my point

00:22:48.360 of view,

00:22:48.640 you'd want to rejoin

00:22:49.720 the European Union

00:22:50.420 Customs Union

00:22:51.160 at least.

00:22:52.040 Why is that so important?

00:22:52.980 Because we need

00:22:54.780 to have

00:22:57.680 very close

00:22:58.560 economic and political

00:22:59.440 relationships

00:23:00.020 with our nearest neighbor.

00:23:02.160 And that's

00:23:03.160 because trade

00:23:04.220 partly works

00:23:04.900 through proximity.

00:23:06.800 That's because

00:23:07.540 small and medium-sized

00:23:08.580 enterprises

00:23:09.020 are desperately

00:23:09.640 dependent

00:23:10.180 on being able

00:23:11.980 to do that kind

00:23:12.900 of trade

00:23:13.280 and being within

00:23:13.900 a customs area

00:23:14.580 allows you to do it.

00:23:15.800 But it's also a symbol

00:23:16.960 to investors

00:23:18.160 around the world

00:23:18.820 that instead

00:23:20.640 of Britain retreating,

00:23:21.900 it's expanding

00:23:23.640 back into

00:23:24.440 larger areas.

00:23:25.580 And that's also

00:23:26.280 necessary

00:23:27.040 because there are

00:23:27.700 no trade deals

00:23:28.380 coming from China,

00:23:30.040 India or the US 0.95

00:23:30.840 because we're in a world

00:23:31.680 of protectionism now,

00:23:33.260 not in a world

00:23:33.780 of free trade.

00:23:34.860 Okay,

00:23:35.040 so rejoin the Customs Union.

00:23:36.280 What else?

00:23:37.120 AI.

00:23:38.320 So AI

00:23:39.200 is the only thing

00:23:41.380 that one can imagine

00:23:42.140 transforming productivity.

00:23:44.740 But

00:23:45.220 to get there,

00:23:46.900 you would have

00:23:47.600 to challenge unions.

00:23:49.380 You would have

00:23:49.920 to take some risk

00:23:50.940 on regulations.

00:23:52.600 You'd have

00:23:52.980 to take quite

00:23:53.540 a lot of risk

00:23:54.080 on results.

00:23:54.820 You would have

00:23:55.160 a lot of people

00:23:55.980 terrified about AI

00:23:57.340 taking over functions

00:23:58.420 that humans

00:23:58.940 are currently doing.

00:24:00.640 But productivity gains

00:24:02.320 basically means

00:24:03.700 fewer humans

00:24:05.540 doing the same thing.

00:24:07.120 And AI

00:24:07.500 is one of the ways

00:24:08.140 of delivering that.

00:24:09.640 Anything else?

00:24:11.480 Probably my main ones.

00:24:12.640 Mm-hmm.

00:24:13.760 So...

00:24:14.280 Sorry,

00:24:14.660 final one,

00:24:15.420 sorry.

00:24:15.720 Final one,

00:24:16.160 which is maybe

00:24:16.600 more fundamental

00:24:17.500 than any of them

00:24:18.120 is that

00:24:21.140 Britain isn't 0.91

00:24:22.280 really run

00:24:22.720 by politicians.

00:24:23.680 It's run

00:24:24.180 by our civil service.

00:24:25.100 Our civil service

00:24:25.640 is enormous.

00:24:27.140 How's the NHS run?

00:24:28.500 It's not run

00:24:29.020 by a Secretary of State

00:24:29.700 for Health.

00:24:30.460 It consists

00:24:30.860 of 1.1 million people.

00:24:35.080 There are 350 million

00:24:37.800 GP appointments a year.

00:24:39.780 The numbers

00:24:40.260 are kind of staggering.

00:24:43.000 So the only way

00:24:44.400 of running

00:24:44.820 a good country

00:24:45.560 is by improving

00:24:46.680 the quality

00:24:47.360 of those people,

00:24:48.780 how they are recruited,

00:24:50.980 how they are promoted,

00:24:52.860 how they are trained.

00:24:55.040 And that is

00:24:55.760 a 20-year process

00:24:57.420 of investment,

00:24:58.860 of really thinking

00:25:00.000 about how you create

00:25:01.420 a really elite

00:25:03.120 professional civil service.

00:25:05.200 And that also requires

00:25:06.660 some very tough conversations

00:25:07.840 because a lot of the things

00:25:09.220 that I found

00:25:09.960 as a minister

00:25:10.420 that were getting

00:25:10.940 in the way,

00:25:12.720 I'll give you an example

00:25:13.480 that I don't think

00:25:15.440 I put in my book,

00:25:16.340 but, you know,

00:25:17.220 mattered to me

00:25:17.860 and sort of illustrates

00:25:18.640 some of the paradoxes.

00:25:19.900 So when I was

00:25:21.700 the minister

00:25:22.300 responsible

00:25:23.340 for part of the,

00:25:25.360 our effort

00:25:25.780 during the Syrian war,

00:25:27.420 I discovered

00:25:29.520 that my Syrian team

00:25:30.880 was moved

00:25:32.620 from London

00:25:33.440 to East Kilbride

00:25:35.000 near Glasgow,

00:25:36.060 400 miles away.

00:25:38.180 Why?

00:25:39.900 Because somebody thought

00:25:41.280 it would be great

00:25:42.040 for the economy

00:25:42.700 of this

00:25:43.920 depressed area

00:25:45.840 near Glasgow

00:25:46.420 to have these

00:25:47.820 civil servants

00:25:48.320 moved up there.

00:25:49.600 So I say,

00:25:50.660 well, wait a second,

00:25:51.180 we're fighting a war,

00:25:52.800 right?

00:25:52.940 Who's going to be

00:25:53.440 in the meetings

00:25:54.040 with the minister of defence?

00:25:55.120 Who's going to be

00:25:55.600 in the meetings

00:25:56.080 with the foreign office?

00:25:56.700 All these meetings

00:25:57.060 are happening in London.

00:25:59.220 Oh, don't worry, minister.

00:26:00.740 People will always

00:26:01.480 be able to fly down.

00:26:03.720 Sorry, first they say

00:26:04.520 they can do it on Zoom.

00:26:05.420 Then I say,

00:26:05.840 no, but that's not the point,

00:26:06.800 right?

00:26:06.900 A lot of this stuff

00:26:07.640 is happening

00:26:08.060 in the margins of meetings.

00:26:09.240 It's not just happening

00:26:09.900 on the Zoom call.

00:26:10.820 Oh, don't worry,

00:26:11.160 they'll be able to fly down.

00:26:12.780 Then I notice

00:26:13.440 they're not flying down.

00:26:15.120 So then I go up

00:26:16.100 to Glasgow.

00:26:16.580 I'm like,

00:26:16.760 what's happening?

00:26:17.440 And they say,

00:26:18.740 oh, minister,

00:26:19.200 we've just done

00:26:20.260 a carbon audit

00:26:21.420 and we've discovered

00:26:22.980 that all these people

00:26:23.660 were taking these flights.

00:26:25.520 So we've banned anybody

00:26:27.280 from taking flights down

00:26:28.920 from Glasgow to London

00:26:30.020 and said,

00:26:31.700 people can do

00:26:32.320 all this stuff virtually.

00:26:34.120 Now,

00:26:34.480 there are two

00:26:35.040 very valuable things

00:26:36.020 happening here,

00:26:36.580 right?

00:26:38.120 Regeneration,

00:26:38.780 revitalisation,

00:26:39.760 employment near Glasgow

00:26:40.640 and climate policy.

00:26:44.240 But what's lacking

00:26:45.340 is what is the point

00:26:46.820 of what they're doing?

00:26:47.500 The point of what they're doing

00:26:48.220 is they're trying to

00:26:49.220 get involved

00:26:50.040 in our biggest

00:26:50.580 national security priority,

00:26:51.620 which is fighting a war in Syria.

00:26:53.040 And they're not there

00:26:53.840 and they're not helping.

00:26:55.140 If the number one question

00:26:56.240 you're asking yourself,

00:26:57.180 which is,

00:26:58.280 what is the most effective,

00:26:59.720 practical way

00:27:00.300 to make a difference

00:27:01.060 in Syria,

00:27:02.800 it is not to move

00:27:03.820 these people up to Glasgow.

00:27:05.540 But our civil service machine

00:27:07.160 is brilliant

00:27:08.160 at prioritising

00:27:10.000 secondary issues

00:27:11.100 and taking away

00:27:13.160 from the fundamental question,

00:27:14.500 which is,

00:27:15.080 what is the most effective

00:27:16.260 way of delivering

00:27:17.180 what matters to the country?

00:27:19.800 Rory,

00:27:20.280 what it seems to be,

00:27:21.640 and this is a brilliant answer,

00:27:22.880 thank you,

00:27:23.500 is that underneath

00:27:25.100 everything that you're saying

00:27:26.880 is an unwillingness

00:27:29.140 to have uncomfortable conversations.

00:27:32.240 Sure.

00:27:32.440 Do you think that's one

00:27:33.800 of the real issue,

00:27:35.620 actually,

00:27:36.140 is the inability

00:27:37.220 by politicians

00:27:38.280 and every other person

00:27:39.600 to confront

00:27:41.160 uncomfortable facts,

00:27:42.220 whether it's about housing,

00:27:43.200 whether it's about the NHS,

00:27:44.780 whether it's about

00:27:45.660 geopolitics,

00:27:48.320 et cetera,

00:27:48.780 et cetera?

00:27:50.300 I think that's right.

00:27:52.120 I think we live

00:27:52.860 in a world

00:27:53.380 of fairy stories.

00:27:54.700 That's one of the reasons

00:27:55.480 why populists do well,

00:27:56.460 but all the main parties

00:27:57.500 also exist

00:27:58.240 in a world

00:27:58.620 of fairy stories.

00:27:59.600 And one of the most

00:28:00.860 dominant fairy stories

00:28:03.740 in our culture

00:28:04.400 is that you don't need

00:28:05.900 to choose,

00:28:07.060 that you can always

00:28:08.080 have the best

00:28:08.980 of all things

00:28:10.520 and the best

00:28:11.000 of all possible worlds.

00:28:12.080 So that story

00:28:13.720 I've just told

00:28:14.340 about Syria,

00:28:16.100 many people

00:28:16.800 listening from the civil service

00:28:18.340 will be like,

00:28:18.740 whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa,

00:28:19.360 you don't need to choose.

00:28:21.360 You know,

00:28:21.520 you can have regeneration

00:28:22.480 and you can have

00:28:23.560 good climate policy

00:28:24.380 and you can have

00:28:25.140 a great situation

00:28:26.840 in Syria.

00:28:28.080 Right?

00:28:28.440 Or if I complain

00:28:29.580 about the fact

00:28:30.240 that my Yemen team,

00:28:32.880 my head of my Yemen team

00:28:34.400 was working a job share.

00:28:37.840 So I had one head

00:28:38.620 of the Yemen team

00:28:39.240 for two days

00:28:39.840 and another for three days

00:28:40.900 in a week.

00:28:42.740 And when I challenged it,

00:28:43.800 everyone's like,

00:28:44.460 well, this is necessary

00:28:45.520 for diversity.

00:28:46.820 It's necessary

00:28:47.460 to provide maternity cover. 1.00

00:28:49.120 It's necessary

00:28:49.640 for a good work-life balance

00:28:50.980 that people are able

00:28:51.740 to work half the week.

00:28:53.480 Right?

00:28:55.100 And I say that's fine,

00:28:57.240 but the fact is

00:28:58.220 this is very inefficient

00:29:00.980 because the person

00:29:01.700 I'm talking to

00:29:02.260 in the first two days

00:29:03.000 doesn't know anything

00:29:03.900 about what I'm talking to

00:29:04.600 in the last...

00:29:04.960 Oh, no, no, no, minister,

00:29:06.020 that's not true.

00:29:07.020 They can do a very,

00:29:07.960 very good handover

00:29:08.700 in the middle of the week.

00:29:10.320 There's no way

00:29:11.140 that it's going to have

00:29:11.780 any impact on efficiency.

00:29:13.360 Right?

00:29:15.120 So we don't like

00:29:20.140 challenging, right?

00:29:22.580 We'll have something

00:29:23.380 in our head,

00:29:24.200 which is a good thing.

00:29:25.920 I'm not saying

00:29:26.460 it's not a good thing.

00:29:27.020 I mean,

00:29:27.180 I personally,

00:29:28.220 feel in my own life

00:29:31.540 the lack of work-life balance.

00:29:33.540 I can see why,

00:29:36.160 you know,

00:29:36.360 from my life,

00:29:37.100 from my wife's life,

00:29:38.040 why being able

00:29:40.400 to work a three-day week

00:29:41.720 can be incredibly important

00:29:42.900 for a family,

00:29:44.060 for your own mental health,

00:29:45.440 for the development

00:29:45.980 of your children,

00:29:47.280 for a healthy society,

00:29:49.560 particularly in a world

00:29:50.520 where people can't afford

00:29:51.400 childcare.

00:29:51.840 All that stuff is true.

00:29:53.580 And I can completely

00:29:54.480 understand why,

00:29:55.520 from a diversity point of view,

00:29:56.360 if you want to keep

00:29:57.200 women in the workplace 1.00

00:29:58.640 and have seen a woman

00:29:59.780 in the workplace,

00:30:00.260 you need to provide

00:30:01.580 structures to allow them

00:30:02.760 to do that.

00:30:04.080 But let's at least accept

00:30:06.160 that sometimes

00:30:07.160 you're making a choice

00:30:09.740 and that there are downsides

00:30:11.940 as well as upsides.

00:30:12.680 I mean,

00:30:12.780 that's in a way

00:30:13.440 what makes me a conservative,

00:30:14.520 that every bit of progress

00:30:17.600 comes with a sacrifice.

00:30:19.440 It's the great Thomas Sowell line,

00:30:20.760 there are no solutions,

00:30:21.780 only trade-offs.

00:30:23.060 And what you're really saying

00:30:24.640 to translate it

00:30:25.400 into simple language

00:30:26.240 and you used to be a soldier

00:30:27.540 is we're doing things

00:30:29.180 for good reasons,

00:30:30.700 but they're detrimental

00:30:31.740 to the mission.

00:30:33.120 Yeah.

00:30:33.740 That's what we're doing.

00:30:34.560 Yeah.

00:30:34.740 Our whole society

00:30:35.620 is a massive example

00:30:37.720 of lots of things

00:30:38.740 being done for good reasons,

00:30:39.940 which are detrimental

00:30:42.060 to an effective,

00:30:45.680 growing,

00:30:46.820 productive,

00:30:47.900 efficient public services

00:30:50.040 economy and society.

00:30:51.340 Now,

00:30:51.740 that may be fine

00:30:52.980 if we acknowledge that.

00:30:56.820 But of course,

00:30:57.240 we don't like it.

00:30:58.120 We don't like the results.

00:30:59.140 If we were like,

00:31:00.440 okay,

00:31:01.520 you know,

00:31:02.180 we've got nice

00:31:03.400 democratic planning processes,

00:31:04.980 we support biodiversity,

00:31:07.120 we support climate,

00:31:08.060 we do good maternity cover, 0.99

00:31:11.100 we're doing nice

00:31:11.780 regeneration projects,

00:31:13.520 we're saving on climate.

00:31:15.180 And the impact is

00:31:16.540 our economy's not going

00:31:17.560 to grow so much,

00:31:18.660 there are going to be

00:31:19.080 big waiting lists

00:31:19.840 at the NHS,

00:31:21.560 our impact on the ground

00:31:22.760 in Syria is going to be 1.00

00:31:23.780 pretty minimal

00:31:24.480 and inefficient,

00:31:25.400 but that's okay.

00:31:27.540 Because we've got

00:31:27.980 maternity cover.

00:31:28.900 Because we've got

00:31:29.320 all that stuff.

00:31:29.900 Yeah,

00:31:30.060 there's many stuff

00:31:30.800 that in many ways

00:31:31.420 our values are better,

00:31:33.740 we're living out our values,

00:31:35.240 we just accept

00:31:36.000 that we're not going to,

00:31:36.940 but of course

00:31:37.440 we're not like that,

00:31:38.060 we want to have our cake

00:31:38.780 and eat it all the time

00:31:39.500 and this is one of the issues.

00:31:41.420 I'm not,

00:31:42.220 I mean maybe,

00:31:43.340 obviously,

00:31:44.640 there's a risk

00:31:45.380 as a conservative,

00:31:46.180 it sounds like

00:31:46.820 I'm just beating up

00:31:47.880 on left-wing issues

00:31:49.600 like maternity cover

00:31:50.580 and climate.

00:31:53.420 I see similar things

00:31:55.080 going on

00:31:55.780 on the conservative side,

00:31:57.500 so let me now

00:31:57.900 have a go at the right.

00:32:00.940 People like Liz Trust

00:32:02.200 will have in their heads

00:32:03.800 the answer that,

00:32:06.300 the answer to things

00:32:07.440 is privatization

00:32:08.560 getting in the market

00:32:09.720 and that also results

00:32:12.060 in catastrophic consequences.

00:32:13.660 So when I was

00:32:14.220 prisons minister,

00:32:16.100 Chris Grayling,

00:32:16.700 one of my colleagues,

00:32:17.340 managed to privatize

00:32:18.480 the probation surface

00:32:19.720 on the basis

00:32:20.720 of something

00:32:21.160 that looked really beautiful

00:32:22.360 on a bit of paper,

00:32:23.300 all the incentives

00:32:23.940 were going to work out,

00:32:24.880 the private sector

00:32:25.520 was going to deliver,

00:32:26.820 private prisons

00:32:27.680 is another example,

00:32:28.560 it's going to be cheaper,

00:32:29.520 private maintenance.

00:32:30.180 It all turned out

00:32:32.900 not to work at all.

00:32:33.800 It would have been

00:32:34.080 much better

00:32:34.840 if the government

00:32:36.340 had been doing it

00:32:37.240 because of the risk profile,

00:32:40.020 because of the way

00:32:40.460 these private sector

00:32:41.200 companies are financed,

00:32:42.860 because of the way

00:32:43.600 in which they go bankrupt

00:32:44.640 and let you down,

00:32:45.840 because of the way

00:32:46.300 in which they keep

00:32:46.920 the government

00:32:47.200 over a barrel.

00:32:47.840 Let's get an example.

00:32:48.660 We've just been through

00:32:49.440 Fujitsu bids

00:32:51.820 on the post office contracts.

00:32:53.400 They get themselves

00:32:53.940 stuck in.

00:32:54.780 They're making billions

00:32:55.820 of pounds

00:32:56.420 because the government

00:32:57.040 can't extract,

00:32:57.900 et cetera.

00:32:59.620 There, too,

00:33:00.660 a different form

00:33:01.520 of ideology

00:33:02.140 is leading to bad results.

00:33:04.200 In that case,

00:33:04.740 the ideology is

00:33:05.500 we believe in the market,

00:33:07.100 private sector companies

00:33:07.880 are much more efficient

00:33:08.560 than government,

00:33:09.780 when actually it turns out

00:33:10.820 that often the private sector

00:33:11.700 is even more inefficient

00:33:12.980 than the government,

00:33:14.140 even more wasteful

00:33:15.080 than the government,

00:33:16.200 and has the government

00:33:16.840 over a barrel.

00:33:17.380 So it doesn't matter

00:33:19.240 whether you're on right

00:33:19.800 or left,

00:33:20.260 we're suffering

00:33:20.940 from a similar problem,

00:33:22.100 which is the way

00:33:22.760 in which instead of

00:33:23.920 really asking yourself,

00:33:26.060 what am I trying

00:33:26.640 to do here?

00:33:28.020 What's the most efficient

00:33:29.080 way of getting there?

00:33:30.180 We, of course,

00:33:31.080 as humans,

00:33:32.080 put incredible

00:33:33.300 ideological blinders,

00:33:35.980 preferences,

00:33:36.800 and things in,

00:33:37.360 which really stop us

00:33:38.580 getting results.

00:33:43.160 And I think

00:33:44.320 one of the ideologies

00:33:45.480 you're going to be

00:33:46.120 particularly critical of,

00:33:47.180 and I'd love to get

00:33:47.820 your view on this,

00:33:48.960 is populism

00:33:49.840 and what is happening.

00:33:51.820 With looking across Europe,

00:33:53.420 we can say that

00:33:53.900 it's a populist revolution.

00:33:56.680 Reform,

00:33:57.180 although they may not

00:33:57.920 get a huge number of seats,

00:33:59.280 they're certainly

00:33:59.820 going to do a lot of damage

00:34:00.960 to the Conservative Party

00:34:02.560 in particular.

00:34:03.460 So what do you make

00:34:03.980 of all of that, Rory?

00:34:06.000 So populism

00:34:07.780 is something

00:34:09.700 that's really exploded

00:34:11.160 since 2014,

00:34:12.500 and that's in India,

00:34:13.460 Brazil, the US, Europe.

00:34:14.920 We'll see it again

00:34:15.460 in the French elections.

00:34:16.420 Now we saw it

00:34:16.980 in the European elections.

00:34:17.880 We'll see it in the French elections.

00:34:19.300 What's it really about?

00:34:20.540 It's about a style

00:34:22.660 of saying

00:34:23.620 the problem is

00:34:25.080 that you've been betrayed

00:34:26.000 by the elite

00:34:26.840 and that there are

00:34:28.560 these real people

00:34:29.860 who I'm speaking for.

00:34:30.920 I'm speaking for the people.

00:34:32.000 I'm speaking for the nation.

00:34:32.920 If we just get rid 0.98

00:34:33.740 of this horrible elite, 0.99

00:34:35.780 you know,

00:34:35.980 we can bring

00:34:36.620 kind of authentic stuff

00:34:38.280 that reflects our values

00:34:39.600 and we're going to challenge,

00:34:41.000 you know,

00:34:42.220 wokery,

00:34:42.900 we're going to challenge

00:34:43.720 sloppy thinking

00:34:44.560 and we're going to sort it out.

00:34:45.480 The trick of populism

00:34:49.080 is that, of course,

00:34:50.020 there's always a kernel

00:34:50.660 of truth in this, right?

00:34:51.960 Because some of the criticisms

00:34:53.220 I've just made

00:34:54.120 of, you know,

00:34:55.320 the stuff I'm talking about

00:34:56.300 with Syria

00:34:57.000 and my civil society

00:34:57.960 could be made

00:34:58.920 by Nigel Farage.

00:34:59.780 And of course,

00:35:00.140 when he says

00:35:00.880 this government said

00:35:02.260 they were going to cut immigration,

00:35:03.420 but they've actually

00:35:03.820 just brought in

00:35:04.360 1.2 million more people,

00:35:05.380 he's right.

00:35:06.200 When Donald Trump says

00:35:07.600 this brilliant elite

00:35:10.020 humiliated itself

00:35:12.900 in America

00:35:14.100 and Iraq

00:35:14.660 and Afghanistan

00:35:15.260 and these things

00:35:15.940 were completely catastrophic,

00:35:17.480 disastrous,

00:35:18.300 $3 trillion wars

00:35:19.580 that killed a lot of people

00:35:20.520 in the Chilean.

00:35:20.980 He's right, okay?

00:35:22.980 The problem, though,

00:35:24.260 is that the solution

00:35:25.220 that they pose

00:35:26.340 does not respect

00:35:28.280 the root of law,

00:35:29.700 does not respect

00:35:30.540 our institutions,

00:35:32.340 does not respect

00:35:33.260 minority rights,

00:35:34.720 is not about compromise,

00:35:36.680 is not about

00:35:37.240 working together,

00:35:38.440 it is polarizing,

00:35:40.180 it's deceptive,

00:35:41.940 it's aggressive, 0.97

00:35:42.900 and it's generally incompetent. 0.58

00:35:45.060 Let's take some of those.

00:35:46.320 You mentioned

00:35:46.740 that it's not respecting

00:35:48.720 the rule of law

00:35:49.640 and it's not respecting

00:35:51.300 the rights of minorities.

00:35:52.380 Can you give some examples

00:35:53.360 of those two things

00:35:54.260 in a Western context?

00:35:55.660 I'm sure we can find stuff

00:35:56.640 in Brazil or wherever,

00:35:57.560 but...

00:35:58.320 Yeah, so,

00:35:58.900 very simple examples.

00:36:00.640 Boris Johnson,

00:36:01.280 he's a kind of muted populist,

00:36:02.860 but you can see

00:36:03.440 the first elements there.

00:36:04.520 He comes in.

00:36:06.580 First thing he tries to do

00:36:07.880 is try to lock the doors

00:36:08.880 on Parliament

00:36:09.320 to get his Brexit deal through,

00:36:11.480 tries to prorogue Parliament.

00:36:13.700 In the end,

00:36:14.520 and to do it,

00:36:15.400 he lies to the Queen,

00:36:16.640 he tries to use

00:36:17.400 these kind of medieval laws

00:36:18.580 to try to drive it through.

00:36:19.820 He's overruled

00:36:20.640 by the Supreme Court.

00:36:22.540 Now, traditionally,

00:36:23.660 all prime ministers

00:36:24.320 in Britain

00:36:24.800 would say

00:36:25.820 huge respect

00:36:27.340 for the Supreme Court,

00:36:28.360 huge respect

00:36:28.800 for the rule of law,

00:36:29.580 we're backing off from this.

00:36:31.300 He goes straight out there

00:36:32.440 and says

00:36:33.120 the Supreme Court

00:36:34.680 basically are betraying

00:36:36.280 the people.

00:36:37.280 I know whose side I'm on,

00:36:38.780 I'm speaking for the people.

00:36:39.860 Hold on, Rory.

00:36:40.960 Sorry,

00:36:41.320 I don't want to go

00:36:41.960 into the weeds of this,

00:36:43.060 but on that,

00:36:44.000 first of all,

00:36:44.480 I don't think

00:36:45.120 anyone in the populist

00:36:46.720 movements

00:36:47.640 would identify

00:36:48.420 Boris Johnson

00:36:49.140 as one of their own.

00:36:50.140 I think he's just,

00:36:51.120 we can agree 0.79

00:36:51.720 he's a duplicitous

00:36:52.600 person, 0.98

00:36:53.420 politician,

00:36:54.020 and we absolutely do

00:36:55.300 on that.

00:36:56.180 Also,

00:36:56.560 the Supreme Court

00:36:57.180 is actually a very new thing

00:36:58.560 in this country.

00:36:59.460 So the idea

00:37:00.100 that it's

00:37:00.580 an ancient institution

00:37:01.980 to which everybody

00:37:02.780 would bow down

00:37:03.440 seems to me

00:37:04.060 inaccurate.

00:37:05.260 Well,

00:37:05.400 let's take the two things.

00:37:06.540 You're right,

00:37:06.980 Supreme Court's

00:37:07.820 a new institution.

00:37:08.940 Its predecessors, 0.77

00:37:10.000 though,

00:37:10.680 played the same role.

00:37:11.600 So the Privy Council

00:37:12.380 and the House of Lords

00:37:13.120 played the same role.

00:37:15.480 Fundamentally,

00:37:15.960 though,

00:37:16.120 the question is

00:37:16.860 when Johnson

00:37:18.240 faces an obstacle,

00:37:20.520 does he respect

00:37:21.860 the sovereignty

00:37:22.400 of Parliament?

00:37:23.420 Does he respect

00:37:24.160 the rule of law?

00:37:24.840 Or does he do

00:37:25.480 what he actually did

00:37:26.220 in Parliament on that day,

00:37:27.160 which is say,

00:37:28.580 I'm speaking for the people?

00:37:30.120 And what does he mean

00:37:30.640 by I'm speaking for the people?

00:37:31.760 He means he's speaking

00:37:32.760 for people

00:37:35.120 who voted for Brexit

00:37:35.960 and probably not everybody

00:37:37.120 who voted for Brexit.

00:37:38.640 So it's probably not even

00:37:39.300 a majority of the people,

00:37:40.560 but he says

00:37:41.200 these are the real people

00:37:42.140 and that the people

00:37:43.700 who oppose him

00:37:44.500 are enemies of the people.

00:37:47.020 Now,

00:37:47.600 maybe you're right

00:37:48.500 that Farage

00:37:50.000 wouldn't recognize him

00:37:50.860 as a populist,

00:37:51.500 but that is,

00:37:52.060 for me,

00:37:52.200 the essence of populism.

00:37:53.980 I guess

00:37:54.460 the counter-argument

00:37:56.120 that I can conjure

00:37:57.080 fairly easily

00:37:57.780 in my head

00:37:58.220 to what you're saying,

00:37:59.000 and I'd be curious

00:37:59.680 to get your take on it,

00:38:01.660 is

00:38:02.080 I think

00:38:03.420 if we look at

00:38:04.360 across Europe,

00:38:05.580 and this is also

00:38:07.820 increasingly true

00:38:08.580 in the United States,

00:38:09.420 even though their attitude

00:38:10.340 to immigration

00:38:10.980 is very different

00:38:11.700 to the European attitude,

00:38:12.960 actually,

00:38:13.600 I find that Americans

00:38:14.560 are much more pro,

00:38:15.940 almost unlimited

00:38:17.320 legal immigration

00:38:18.240 for historical,

00:38:19.920 geographical reasons,

00:38:20.860 et cetera.

00:38:21.300 But in Europe,

00:38:22.800 what I think

00:38:23.560 a lot of people

00:38:24.380 would quite reasonably say

00:38:25.620 is not only

00:38:26.720 have we had

00:38:27.200 very high levels

00:38:28.000 of legal immigration,

00:38:29.900 which was not democratically,

00:38:32.000 there was no mandate

00:38:32.760 for the levels

00:38:33.400 of immigration we saw.

00:38:34.880 More people came

00:38:35.580 into this country

00:38:36.240 under the Blair government

00:38:37.280 than came into this country 0.98

00:38:38.820 between 1066,

00:38:40.260 the Battle of Hastings

00:38:41.080 in 1950.

00:38:42.340 The Conservatives come in

00:38:43.580 and they basically

00:38:44.680 double down

00:38:45.680 and have more immigration again.

00:38:47.500 I take your point

00:38:48.360 and you're smiling

00:38:49.000 because your argument

00:38:49.940 might well be,

00:38:51.020 well,

00:38:51.420 that's what our economy needs.

00:38:53.280 We can park that

00:38:54.060 for one second.

00:38:55.620 In addition to that,

00:38:56.980 we have increasingly

00:38:57.880 high levels

00:38:58.520 of illegal immigration

00:38:59.700 for which there is

00:39:00.440 no economic rationale.

00:39:02.340 There is no reason

00:39:03.600 that should be happening.

00:39:04.560 I'm a first generation

00:39:05.560 immigrant to this country.

00:39:06.520 I don't understand

00:39:07.000 why it's happening.

00:39:07.780 I don't understand

00:39:08.620 why tens of thousands

00:39:09.500 of people come into this country 0.99

00:39:10.800 on small boats every year.

00:39:12.460 And so the counter argument

00:39:13.740 to what you're saying

00:39:14.820 might be,

00:39:16.080 well,

00:39:16.780 if the elite

00:39:17.800 are not doing

00:39:19.220 the things

00:39:19.680 that they're either

00:39:20.320 elected to do

00:39:21.260 or the things

00:39:21.900 which have any rationale

00:39:23.240 for being done,

00:39:24.660 well,

00:39:25.460 why wouldn't we vote

00:39:26.280 for Nigel Farage?

00:39:27.420 Yeah,

00:39:27.720 well,

00:39:27.880 that's exactly why he's...

00:39:29.480 But why is that wrong to do?

00:39:30.880 That's what I'm...

00:39:31.500 Because,

00:39:32.380 as I was trying to say,

00:39:33.820 the point is not

00:39:34.980 is Farage right

00:39:36.240 in his criticisms?

00:39:37.320 The point is

00:39:37.820 what would he represent

00:39:38.920 and what would he do

00:39:39.760 if he was in government?

00:39:41.180 As I say,

00:39:41.940 a lot of Donald Trump's

00:39:43.040 criticisms

00:39:43.800 are perfectly valid.

00:39:45.820 But I hope you don't

00:39:47.300 like the idea

00:39:47.900 of Donald Trump

00:39:48.400 becoming president

00:39:49.140 just because what he says

00:39:50.240 about Iraq or Afghanistan

00:39:51.320 happens to be true.

00:39:52.440 I don't think

00:39:53.460 that's why people

00:39:54.100 are voting for Donald Trump.

00:39:55.440 I think the reason

00:39:55.940 people are voting

00:39:56.580 for Donald Trump

00:39:57.320 is they hope

00:39:57.960 someone can deal

00:39:58.740 with the problem

00:39:59.400 of mass illegal

00:40:00.320 immigration in America.

00:40:02.040 Yeah, so...

00:40:03.400 And they believe

00:40:04.080 that he's much more likely

00:40:05.140 to do that

00:40:05.640 than Joe Biden

00:40:06.760 and he has.

00:40:07.660 So I personally believe

00:40:08.980 that the immigration problem

00:40:10.760 is the thing

00:40:13.440 that is undermining

00:40:14.500 centrist governments

00:40:15.980 almost more

00:40:16.800 than anything else.

00:40:17.380 Right. 0.95

00:40:17.580 And that it is ridiculous 0.90

00:40:21.860 of Britain 0.83

00:40:24.060 and other European countries

00:40:25.620 not to put the arrangements

00:40:27.560 in place

00:40:28.300 with third-party countries

00:40:30.120 and not to challenge

00:40:31.740 the completely broken

00:40:34.440 concept of asylum

00:40:36.000 which we inherited

00:40:36.820 from the end

00:40:37.520 of the Second World War.

00:40:39.140 A much more sensible

00:40:40.340 way of doing it

00:40:41.080 would be to say

00:40:42.000 we will accept

00:40:43.180 a certain number

00:40:44.260 of people

00:40:45.020 as asylum seekers

00:40:47.100 every year

00:40:47.760 and we'll define

00:40:48.420 that number

00:40:48.760 so I would say

00:40:50.460 0.5% of your population

00:40:52.260 a year you can take

00:40:53.240 and we will do it

00:40:56.080 in a way

00:40:56.640 that prioritizes

00:40:58.180 female judges 0.89

00:40:59.560 from Afghanistan

00:41:00.400 people who are

00:41:01.560 at direct risk

00:41:02.660 of war in Somalia

00:41:04.340 and we will do it

00:41:06.080 as a target

00:41:07.920 that we sign up to

00:41:09.140 along with Europe

00:41:09.940 and the United States

00:41:10.860 and Canada

00:41:11.340 we'll all sign up to this

00:41:12.580 would be a great help

00:41:14.020 if places like Japan

00:41:15.140 and China signed up

00:41:16.040 as well

00:41:16.380 because they aren't

00:41:17.080 taking anybody

00:41:17.780 you know Luxembourg

00:41:19.420 is taking more people

00:41:21.040 every year than Japan 0.56

00:41:22.160 but at least

00:41:24.740 the G7 could sign up

00:41:26.100 to this

00:41:26.420 and if we manage

00:41:29.660 to get that through

00:41:31.400 then I think

00:41:31.980 the corollary of that

00:41:32.920 is and we're not

00:41:33.860 going to accept people

00:41:35.000 who just happen

00:41:36.380 to get on a boat

00:41:37.040 because the people

00:41:37.840 who get on a boat

00:41:38.500 are predominantly

00:41:40.100 young men

00:41:41.620 from lower middle class families

00:41:43.840 who've managed

00:41:44.420 to put together

00:41:45.520 10 or 20,000 euros

00:41:46.780 in order to pay

00:41:47.580 a people's mother

00:41:49.120 and there's absolutely

00:41:49.680 no reason

00:41:50.240 to be taking them

00:41:50.780 for France

00:41:51.280 France is a safe country

00:41:52.460 and nobody has any

00:41:53.560 reason to say

00:41:55.600 I'm at stress in France

00:41:57.220 and I'm going to be safer

00:41:58.060 in the United Kingdom

00:41:58.780 it's not kind of definitional

00:42:00.360 that whatever is driving them

00:42:02.580 across the channel

00:42:03.400 it's not persecution

00:42:04.540 and so I think liberals

00:42:06.300 of that sort

00:42:08.080 who seem to fantasize

00:42:09.900 about open borders

00:42:10.680 and think that

00:42:11.380 are going down

00:42:13.460 a very very dangerous

00:42:14.460 and misleading path

00:42:15.420 well it sounds to me

00:42:16.700 like we agree entirely

00:42:18.080 on all of that

00:42:19.360 that's what I would advocate for

00:42:21.060 and all I'm saying is

00:42:22.120 I think the reason

00:42:23.360 that you are seeing

00:42:24.200 people vote for

00:42:25.220 people like Nigel Farage

00:42:26.580 and populist parties

00:42:28.500 around Europe

00:42:29.140 is no mainstream politician

00:42:30.960 that I have heard

00:42:32.240 has been willing

00:42:33.300 to make that argument

00:42:34.260 and then deliver on it

00:42:35.640 we haven't had

00:42:36.880 that position

00:42:38.200 be articulated in public

00:42:39.700 and then be delivered on it

00:42:41.160 and we know

00:42:41.740 over the next five years

00:42:42.880 it's not going to happen either

00:42:43.780 well so

00:42:44.200 to be fair

00:42:46.480 to Rishi Sunak

00:42:47.760 and the Conservative government

00:42:48.640 I think that

00:42:49.480 broadly is their position

00:42:50.480 and they would like

00:42:52.100 to get to that position

00:42:52.920 but when they try to do it

00:42:54.980 what do you have

00:42:55.720 you have

00:42:56.220 one solution

00:42:57.080 Rwanda

00:42:57.560 and move people to Rwanda

00:42:58.920 seems fair enough

00:43:00.720 we can debate about

00:43:02.100 whether Rwanda is the right place 1.00

00:43:03.300 but the basic idea

00:43:04.020 that you could move people

00:43:05.100 to a safe country

00:43:06.040 if the problem

00:43:06.780 is they're being persecuted

00:43:07.700 that isn't the United Kingdom

00:43:09.460 seems fine

00:43:10.140 there's an idea

00:43:12.760 that Labour

00:43:13.260 tried to have with France 0.89

00:43:14.620 which is okay

00:43:15.260 France

00:43:15.700 stop

00:43:16.360 these people getting on boats

00:43:17.880 in return

00:43:18.480 we will take

00:43:19.360 genuine asylum seekers

00:43:20.580 we will share the burden

00:43:22.420 with you

00:43:22.700 of genuine asylum seekers 1.00

00:43:23.780 turning up in France

00:43:24.440 but we won't have

00:43:25.060 these boats coming

00:43:25.840 illegally

00:43:26.440 where are they getting in trouble

00:43:28.860 they're getting in trouble

00:43:30.220 because they appear

00:43:31.380 to be completely unable

00:43:32.440 to coordinate

00:43:32.860 with the French police

00:43:33.760 I mean

00:43:34.600 why are these

00:43:35.020 40,000 people coming

00:43:36.020 it's because of French police

00:43:37.520 we've never been able

00:43:39.420 to work out

00:43:39.920 how to change

00:43:40.440 the legal system

00:43:41.240 so at the moment

00:43:42.440 unless there's legal change

00:43:44.280 you arrive

00:43:44.940 and you can claim asylum

00:43:46.340 and because

00:43:48.500 we don't know

00:43:49.680 what to do

00:43:50.240 about claims

00:43:50.920 against

00:43:51.300 in the European Court

00:43:52.280 of Human Rights

00:43:52.840 and of course

00:43:54.300 people like me then

00:43:55.200 and this is the problem

00:43:56.100 on the one hand

00:43:56.800 I absolutely think 0.96

00:43:58.020 this is ridiculous 0.96

00:43:59.020 these people shouldn't 0.96

00:44:00.060 be coming here

00:44:00.680 they have no right

00:44:01.260 to be here

00:44:01.840 but if you then say to me

00:44:03.800 would you want to withdraw

00:44:05.020 from the European Court

00:44:05.860 of Human Rights

00:44:06.520 I think

00:44:06.840 whoa

00:44:07.080 hold a second

00:44:07.760 this is a really important institution

00:44:09.000 that was set up in the 1950s

00:44:10.440 by a conservative government

00:44:11.440 it's done an enormous amount

00:44:12.960 to help rights around Europe

00:44:14.180 so how do I balance that

00:44:16.560 against this

00:44:17.080 so I don't think it is

00:44:18.740 that Rishi Sunak disagrees

00:44:20.480 with you or me on this

00:44:21.620 I think it's that

00:44:23.600 as with most of these things

00:44:25.880 when you try to do it

00:44:27.340 you run into a lot of complications

00:44:29.240 I think we've just got

00:44:30.380 to the core

00:44:30.960 of our disagreement

00:44:31.780 or the disagreement

00:44:33.300 that a populist might have

00:44:34.680 with your position

00:44:35.360 let's say

00:44:35.880 which is that

00:44:37.360 at the point

00:44:38.420 where you go

00:44:39.200 well I don't want to leave

00:44:40.320 the ECHR

00:44:41.040 because it's

00:44:41.420 that's when the person says

00:44:43.580 well in that case

00:44:44.440 F you

00:44:45.580 I'm voting for Faraj 1.00

00:44:46.880 and that's how you create populism

00:44:49.580 sure

00:44:49.900 absolutely

00:44:50.540 absolutely

00:44:51.280 and of course

00:44:52.380 the question

00:44:55.960 with any radical politician

00:44:58.220 be it called populists

00:45:00.100 revolutionaries

00:45:01.700 progressives

00:45:02.500 radicals

00:45:03.220 I mean it could be

00:45:03.600 Jeremy Corbyn

00:45:04.220 it could be Nigel Farage

00:45:04.980 is

00:45:06.240 sometimes it's true

00:45:07.760 sometimes it's true

00:45:08.860 that the whole system

00:45:09.720 is so broken

00:45:10.540 that things that we

00:45:12.980 venerate

00:45:13.760 our constitution

00:45:14.800 the European Court

00:45:15.940 and human rights

00:45:16.660 may have become

00:45:18.140 such incredible obstacles

00:45:19.800 to change

00:45:20.420 that they need to be shattered

00:45:21.400 but of course

00:45:24.080 as a conservative

00:45:24.680 I would say

00:45:25.260 be very careful

00:45:25.940 doing that

00:45:26.480 because this thing

00:45:28.740 the European Court

00:45:30.180 and human rights

00:45:30.760 you're focused on

00:45:32.640 because it's stopping you

00:45:33.760 dealing with people

00:45:34.380 arriving on boats

00:45:35.120 but you may not understand

00:45:36.620 all the other things

00:45:37.560 that it does

00:45:38.220 and all the other things

00:45:39.200 that you lose

00:45:39.920 when you shatter it

00:45:40.780 and that's

00:45:42.840 that's the

00:45:43.560 that's

00:45:44.260 the problem

00:45:45.620 that the fundamental argument

00:45:47.480 against any populist

00:45:48.720 or revolutionary

00:45:49.220 is an argument

00:45:50.000 of prudence

00:45:51.080 it's an argument

00:45:52.720 to be thoughtful

00:45:53.460 be careful

00:45:54.260 think this thing through

00:45:55.440 what are the unintended consequences

00:45:56.960 what you're doing

00:45:57.740 where does this go

00:45:58.580 and that has to be balanced

00:46:00.740 against perfectly valued

00:46:02.040 human instinct

00:46:02.640 which is

00:46:03.080 we need to get on with things

00:46:04.640 we need to sort things out

00:46:05.780 screw that

00:46:06.420 we're going to move fast

00:46:07.440 we're going to break things

00:46:08.200 which is the Liz Truss view

00:46:09.240 of the world

00:46:09.560 and of course

00:46:11.160 when it works

00:46:12.960 you know

00:46:14.160 you're the great reformer

00:46:15.040 you're Margaret Thatcher

00:46:15.840 when it doesn't work

00:46:17.600 you're Liz Truss 0.84

00:46:18.460 you're a feckless 1.00

00:46:20.160 imprudent 1.00

00:46:20.720 foolish person 1.00

00:46:21.660 who didn't bother 1.00

00:46:22.280 to take decent advice

00:46:23.340 or you're quasi-court

00:46:24.200 and you're glib

00:46:25.160 and you do stuff

00:46:26.700 without understanding

00:46:27.340 the consequences

00:46:27.900 Rory

00:46:28.980 what argument

00:46:29.840 I would love to see

00:46:31.560 what you think about this

00:46:33.080 about populism

00:46:34.420 is very necessary

00:46:36.000 a lot of people

00:46:36.660 would argue

00:46:37.100 because it holds

00:46:37.900 the major parties

00:46:38.720 to account

00:46:39.340 and the only way

00:46:40.540 really to hold

00:46:41.460 a major party

00:46:42.140 like the Conservatives

00:46:42.960 to account 0.97

00:46:43.520 is to hit them 0.98

00:46:44.600 where it hurts 0.99

00:46:45.180 which is

00:46:45.820 them not getting re-elected

00:46:47.580 them losing seats

00:46:48.520 in Parliament

00:46:49.060 and reform

00:46:50.740 UKIP

00:46:51.600 is the most effective

00:46:53.060 way of doing that

00:46:53.880 democratically

00:46:54.720 so what is populism

00:46:59.760 and why is it a problem

00:47:00.640 one problem with it

00:47:03.020 is that it is

00:47:03.760 essentially isolationist

00:47:05.820 all these populist movements

00:47:07.480 involve retreating

00:47:09.400 from the world

00:47:09.860 and this is really

00:47:12.700 the story that we've seen

00:47:13.720 since 2014

00:47:14.440 and this is the story

00:47:15.400 we'll see more of

00:47:16.300 with Trump

00:47:16.820 with Farage

00:47:17.600 with us

00:47:17.980 populism

00:47:20.180 has redefined

00:47:21.960 the way the mainstream

00:47:23.260 parties operate

00:47:24.200 so basically

00:47:27.200 Biden's foreign policy

00:47:28.680 is inherited from Trump

00:47:29.860 and to some extent

00:47:31.040 Obama's late policy

00:47:32.120 was shaped

00:47:32.640 by this kind of complaint

00:47:34.300 so what does it mean

00:47:35.680 it means that

00:47:36.780 America's put first 0.99

00:47:38.480 and we don't get involved

00:47:39.420 well we don't want

00:47:39.940 to be a global policeman

00:47:40.720 anymore

00:47:41.080 so that means

00:47:42.960 Putin invades Crimea

00:47:44.320 nobody responds

00:47:45.500 Obama draws a red line

00:47:46.980 in Syria

00:47:47.500 Bashar al-Assad

00:47:48.400 breaks it

00:47:49.000 he doesn't want

00:47:49.460 to get involved

00:47:50.020 Biden withdraws

00:47:52.560 all his troops

00:47:53.000 from Afghanistan

00:47:53.660 the whole thing

00:47:54.200 collapses

00:47:54.580 like a pack of cards

00:47:55.900 Trump threatens

00:47:56.880 to withdraw from NATO

00:47:57.900 and almost certainly

00:47:59.040 if he's elected

00:47:59.780 will allow

00:48:01.860 a pro-Putin puppet

00:48:03.420 government

00:48:03.820 to be in Kiev

00:48:04.740 and what's the result

00:48:07.900 of that

00:48:08.220 since 2014

00:48:09.400 every single year

00:48:11.060 we have seen

00:48:12.100 more refugees

00:48:12.960 more eternally

00:48:13.800 displaced people

00:48:14.600 more civilians

00:48:15.320 killed in conflict

00:48:16.180 second thing

00:48:17.880 about populism

00:48:18.540 populism

00:48:19.540 is basically

00:48:20.460 very very

00:48:22.900 well disposed

00:48:24.140 towards strongmen

00:48:25.440 authoritarian government

00:48:26.520 their model of government

00:48:27.420 is the macho person

00:48:28.600 that sorts it out

00:48:29.900 right

00:48:30.080 they look enviously

00:48:31.780 at Singapore

00:48:32.780 Saudi Arabia

00:48:33.940 UAE

00:48:34.700 sometimes although

00:48:35.440 they don't admit it

00:48:36.320 they're tempted to think

00:48:37.220 oh look at China 0.99

00:48:38.220 it's amazing

00:48:39.200 they build all these

00:48:40.020 trains and roads

00:48:40.860 it's wonderful

00:48:41.280 and that's why

00:48:44.440 often populism

00:48:45.220 is associated

00:48:45.960 with what we call

00:48:46.500 democratic backsliding

00:48:47.520 so in Hungary

00:48:48.440 and Poland

00:48:49.140 in India

00:48:50.160 and Bangladesh

00:48:50.780 you begin

00:48:52.400 tamping

00:48:53.500 shutting down

00:48:54.140 opposition in media

00:48:55.220 shutting down

00:48:55.980 the universities

00:48:56.540 that criticize you

00:48:57.640 pursuing the alternative

00:48:58.960 political parties

00:48:59.920 taking them into the courts

00:49:01.580 using the civil service

00:49:03.360 against your opponents

00:49:04.440 to assert yourself

00:49:05.540 against your opposition

00:49:06.440 and what's the result

00:49:08.860 of that

00:49:09.120 well since 2014

00:49:10.120 the number of democracies

00:49:11.000 in the world

00:49:11.440 has begun to fall

00:49:12.560 dramatically

00:49:13.120 you know we just had

00:49:14.600 an attempted coup

00:49:16.160 yesterday

00:49:16.740 six elected governments

00:49:20.540 in Africa

00:49:20.980 that were pro-Western

00:49:22.040 have now fallen

00:49:23.360 to military governments

00:49:24.260 that are pro-Moscow

00:49:25.120 that also is a consequence

00:49:26.960 of populism

00:49:27.660 and the final thing

00:49:28.520 right

00:49:28.720 so isolation

00:49:30.600 in foreign policy

00:49:31.480 authoritarianism

00:49:33.560 in domestic politics

00:49:35.100 and the final thing

00:49:36.440 is economic

00:49:37.000 basically

00:49:38.920 these populists

00:49:39.740 are protectionists

00:49:40.800 you know

00:49:41.740 Trump has driven

00:49:43.220 a move

00:49:43.760 to put up

00:49:44.260 massive tariff barriers

00:49:45.540 around the United States

00:49:46.600 Biden has responded

00:49:48.140 by 105% tariffs

00:49:50.340 on imported Chinese vehicles

00:49:51.520 they're all pushing

00:49:53.180 for industrial strategies

00:49:54.540 they're taking us back

00:49:56.680 to the economics

00:49:57.220 of the 1970s

00:49:58.260 they're illiberal

00:49:59.220 in every way

00:50:00.840 they're illiberal socially

00:50:01.980 they're also illiberal

00:50:02.680 economically

00:50:03.200 all the normal logic

00:50:05.760 of economics

00:50:06.280 that suggests

00:50:07.020 that actually markets

00:50:07.960 work better

00:50:08.720 than strongmen

00:50:09.640 picking winners

00:50:10.460 that global free trade

00:50:12.260 works better

00:50:12.880 than protectionism

00:50:13.820 is going out the window

00:50:14.540 so this is a

00:50:16.880 it's a

00:50:18.160 this closing in

00:50:19.380 economically

00:50:21.100 politically

00:50:22.060 internationally

00:50:23.000 is a very dangerous

00:50:25.300 path for the world

00:50:26.080 that will make the world

00:50:27.240 more dangerous

00:50:28.420 less free

00:50:29.620 and poorer

00:50:30.140 so I guess

00:50:32.220 my question is

00:50:33.020 what should somebody

00:50:34.600 do

00:50:35.080 who's

00:50:35.840 going to vote

00:50:37.460 when they look

00:50:38.860 at the options

00:50:39.800 that are available

00:50:40.360 to them

00:50:40.760 which it doesn't matter

00:50:41.640 which country you're in

00:50:42.940 they all seem

00:50:44.440 weak

00:50:44.980 to put it mildly

00:50:46.000 well

00:50:50.520 I think

00:50:51.460 one thing

00:50:52.960 which is

00:50:53.360 uncomfortable

00:50:54.020 is we need

00:50:55.440 to be better

00:50:56.200 at analyzing

00:50:56.860 what the problem is

00:50:57.800 I mean I'm often

00:50:59.060 criticized

00:51:00.860 because this book

00:51:01.880 Politics on the Edge

00:51:02.800 provides a very negative

00:51:03.860 picture of politics

00:51:04.960 and you know

00:51:05.680 my friend Alastair

00:51:06.380 will say

00:51:06.820 how are you going to

00:51:07.340 encourage anyone to vote

00:51:08.340 or get involved in politics

00:51:09.280 if you make it out

00:51:10.080 as being so grim

00:51:10.900 I think you've got to

00:51:13.180 explain how grim it is

00:51:14.600 the only way to reform

00:51:16.840 politics

00:51:18.040 or the NHS

00:51:18.680 is to explain 0.68

00:51:19.560 how screwed the systems

00:51:21.040 the only way

00:51:22.260 that we will generate

00:51:23.180 reform

00:51:24.060 and better politicians

00:51:25.020 is by really explaining

00:51:27.500 this uncomfortable stuff

00:51:29.020 by doing so

00:51:31.220 you begin to give

00:51:32.660 a bit of space

00:51:33.320 I hope

00:51:34.020 for the chance

00:51:36.400 of changing

00:51:37.040 our electoral system

00:51:37.880 which I think

00:51:38.560 would make a huge difference

00:51:39.840 changing the way

00:51:41.540 that ministers operate

00:51:42.720 changing the way

00:51:43.800 the House of Lords operate

00:51:45.100 changing the way

00:51:45.900 the media is owned

00:51:46.920 and managed

00:51:47.620 structural changes

00:51:49.060 which will make

00:51:49.920 a healthier system

00:51:51.480 where you're more likely

00:51:52.300 to get people

00:51:52.920 that you'd want to vote for

00:51:53.920 I know exactly

00:51:56.980 what you're saying

00:51:57.760 but that is a very

00:51:58.740 long long long

00:52:00.020 term project

00:52:00.820 and

00:52:01.540 I know we've talked

00:52:05.320 about the competency thing

00:52:06.540 I just look at people

00:52:07.780 like Keir Starmer

00:52:08.720 and it goes back

00:52:10.400 to our earlier

00:52:11.360 conversation

00:52:11.940 the unwillingness

00:52:12.780 to have

00:52:13.140 uncomfortable conversations

00:52:14.560 and I look at Starmer

00:52:16.160 for example

00:52:16.760 and I do not see that

00:52:18.640 he can't even say

00:52:19.380 what a woman is Rory 0.99

00:52:20.420 how is he going to have

00:52:21.960 another type of

00:52:23.340 uncomfortable conversation

00:52:24.480 that shouldn't even

00:52:25.300 be uncomfortable

00:52:25.980 do you see why

00:52:27.060 I'm despairing?

00:52:28.240 I can totally see

00:52:28.860 why I'm despairing

00:52:29.360 but Starmer

00:52:30.200 why is he like that?

00:52:32.900 Presumably not

00:52:33.520 because he's really

00:52:34.280 like that

00:52:34.780 he's like that

00:52:36.220 because that's the

00:52:36.860 incentives that have

00:52:37.720 been set up in the system

00:52:38.720 he's almost certainly

00:52:40.240 going to win a majority

00:52:41.180 of 300 seats

00:52:42.400 on the back of

00:52:44.320 what we call

00:52:45.400 a Ming-Val strategy

00:52:46.260 which is not answering

00:52:47.180 any uncomfortable

00:52:47.800 questions

00:52:48.320 not having any policy

00:52:49.220 he's going to win

00:52:49.980 a record breaking

00:52:51.940 probably the largest

00:52:52.780 majority ever achieved

00:52:54.240 in British history

00:52:54.940 by saying nothing

00:52:55.760 so if that's the case

00:52:58.100 the question is

00:52:59.680 what's going on here

00:53:01.040 you know

00:53:02.000 is it that he's

00:53:03.580 a particularly 0.98

00:53:04.440 incompetent weak individual 0.95

00:53:05.560 or is it that he 0.98

00:53:07.140 just understands

00:53:07.980 how our culture

00:53:09.700 works

00:53:10.220 how our media

00:53:10.880 works

00:53:11.380 how our voters

00:53:12.060 work

00:53:12.480 how we think

00:53:13.200 and it's worked out

00:53:14.800 that we

00:53:15.500 don't like

00:53:16.880 uncomfortable

00:53:17.320 conversations

00:53:17.940 well we like them

00:53:19.720 on the show

00:53:20.080 which is why

00:53:20.480 it's been great

00:53:20.960 having you on Rory

00:53:21.780 we're going to go

00:53:22.880 to questions

00:53:23.440 from our audience

00:53:24.240 in a second 0.78

00:53:24.760 but as you know

00:53:25.440 before we let you go

00:53:26.560 the thing that we

00:53:28.000 always ask at the end

00:53:28.840 is what's the one

00:53:29.460 thing we're not

00:53:30.020 talking about

00:53:30.700 as a society

00:53:31.440 that we really

00:53:31.920 should be

00:53:32.280 before Rory answers

00:53:34.640 a final question

00:53:35.640 at the end of the interview

00:53:37.360 make sure to head over

00:53:38.920 to our locals

00:53:39.660 the link is in the description

00:53:41.080 where you'll be able

00:53:42.220 to see this

00:53:43.200 does Rory see

00:53:44.600 conservatism

00:53:45.640 in the current

00:53:47.600 Tory party

00:53:48.320 I spent 15 years

00:53:50.380 working on the Middle East

00:53:51.140 and Asia

00:53:51.500 wrote three books

00:53:52.400 on Asia

00:53:53.300 spoke three Asian languages

00:53:55.060 I made the Africa 0.98

00:53:56.540 minister

00:53:56.860 I don't know anything

00:53:57.360 about Africa

00:53:57.900 Rory what happened

00:54:01.340 we asked you

00:54:01.840 that we should have done

00:54:02.520 we're not talking

00:54:06.120 about knowledge

00:54:09.660 and ignorance

00:54:10.620 we're not talking

00:54:11.580 about the fact

00:54:13.680 that a lot of the

00:54:14.800 at the heart

00:54:15.640 of many of these

00:54:16.660 conversations

00:54:17.220 is the fact

00:54:19.780 that we are drowned

00:54:20.840 in information

00:54:21.880 that we can't begin

00:54:23.260 to make sense

00:54:24.080 of things

00:54:24.560 you know

00:54:25.640 I gave the tiny example

00:54:26.660 of you know

00:54:27.020 what would happen

00:54:27.520 if you were made

00:54:28.140 secretary of state

00:54:28.880 for health tomorrow

00:54:30.000 and you suddenly

00:54:30.640 had to get your head

00:54:31.500 around 1.1 million staff

00:54:33.360 335 million

00:54:35.180 GP appointments

00:54:36.300 goodness knows

00:54:37.340 how many

00:54:37.640 we pretend

00:54:39.880 that we're in a world

00:54:42.320 of knowledge management

00:54:43.340 we pretend

00:54:44.260 that

00:54:44.840 the difference

00:54:46.900 between good

00:54:47.840 and bad results

00:54:48.820 is how much

00:54:49.440 you know

00:54:49.760 in truth

00:54:51.420 we live in a world

00:54:52.360 so overwhelmed

00:54:53.520 by knowledge

00:54:54.240 that in fact

00:54:54.820 we're in the dark

00:54:55.500 that a lot

00:54:57.460 that a lot of

00:54:57.580 what we're talking

00:54:58.160 about is risk

00:54:59.160 uncertainty

00:55:00.140 hunches

00:55:01.480 nobody really

00:55:03.280 knows what's going on

00:55:04.180 and one of the

00:55:06.380 reasons why

00:55:07.340 markets work

00:55:09.500 is that they

00:55:11.240 don't depend

00:55:11.980 on people in the

00:55:13.300 centre knowing stuff

00:55:14.300 they're about

00:55:15.140 the way in which

00:55:16.600 prices communicate

00:55:17.960 tacit information

00:55:19.380 tacit preferences

00:55:20.300 allow a complicated

00:55:21.900 society to operate

00:55:23.360 without having to

00:55:24.880 rely on the notion

00:55:26.040 of the superman

00:55:27.140 and I think

00:55:28.660 this notion

00:55:30.380 of the superman

00:55:31.320 this notion

00:55:31.980 of the kind of

00:55:32.560 all-knowing

00:55:33.300 all-powerful leader

00:55:34.460 is at the heart

00:55:36.140 of most of our

00:55:36.680 problems

00:55:36.980 because such people

00:55:37.720 don't exist

00:55:38.520 and those people

00:55:39.100 who claim to be

00:55:40.080 such 0.82

00:55:40.540 are frauds

00:55:42.600 Roy Stewart

00:55:43.800 thank you very

00:55:44.360 much

00:55:44.640 head on over

00:55:45.660 to locals

00:55:46.160 where we answer

00:55:46.960 your questions

00:55:47.740 with Roy

00:55:48.060 as a former

00:55:51.320 serviceman

00:55:51.960 former soldier

00:55:52.780 what was your

00:55:54.160 response

00:55:54.820 to

00:55:55.780 Sunak's behaviour

00:55:57.160 during the

00:55:57.780 D-Day celebration

00:55:58.700 Broadway's smash hit

00:56:03.960 the Neil Diamond

00:56:04.720 musical

00:56:05.260 A Beautiful Noise

00:56:06.620 is coming to

00:56:07.700 Toronto

00:56:08.100 the true story

00:56:09.140 of a kid from

00:56:09.840 Brooklyn

00:56:10.200 destined for

00:56:10.980 something more

00:56:11.740 featuring all the

00:56:12.620 songs you love

00:56:13.500 including America

00:56:14.640 Forever in Blue

00:56:15.600 Jeans

00:56:15.960 and Sweet Caroline

00:56:17.060 like Jersey Boys 0.86

00:56:18.600 and Beautiful

00:56:19.220 the next musical

00:56:20.400 mega hit is here

00:56:21.520 the Neil Diamond

00:56:22.480 musical

00:56:23.040 A Beautiful Noise

00:56:24.280 now through

00:56:24.920 June 7th

00:56:25.720 2026

00:56:26.500 at the Princess

00:56:27.460 of Wales Theatre

00:56:28.380 get tickets at

00:56:29.360 Murbish.com

TRIGGERnometry - July 07, 2024

Rory Stewart： “We’re Living in a World of Fairy Tales”

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