01:36:55.340This is sort of something that Nassim Taleb and I, you know, have discussed.
01:37:01.700The fetish about the fact that it's measurable causes this real problem because it's a nightmare indicator.
01:37:09.960It's good enough to suggest that something is very real that can be tracked that has a genetic component.
01:37:15.740But it's not good enough to explain creativity.
01:37:19.560And I think that, for example, if you talk, if I talk to my East Asian friends, a lot of them are confused.
01:37:25.980And they say things like, where does Jewish creativity come from?
01:37:29.020We also are supposed to have very high IQs.
01:37:32.000And we're still in a leader follower mode.
01:37:34.360How is it that we get into this Jewish creativity mode?
01:37:37.740So I happen to think that because people are dissuaded from talking about IQ, because they're dissuaded from talking about genetics, they want to focus on IQ as if it is intelligence, which it definitely is not.
01:39:19.000They're not really part of society in the way that Jews are.
01:39:22.000There's also a lot of creativity in that culture, but without the same, you know, in-system accomplishment.
01:39:28.880I think the Jews tend to be in-system.
01:39:32.280They tend to work within the structures that they find.
01:39:35.220And, you know, my wife being from the Jewish community of India, you know, I have an opportunity to see a very different world about, you know, the impact of, let's just say, you know, the Sassoon family or the way that the Parsis mirror the Jews inside of an Indian context.
01:39:54.100So I think that, you know, there's – I don't know why we're afraid of talking about genetics and cognitive ability.
01:40:01.760I don't know why we're afraid of talking about culture and cognitive ability.
01:40:04.700I don't know why we're afraid of talking about culture and drive together.
01:40:12.780The great part of the Jewish strategy is that most of it is pretty much open source.
01:40:17.200And if you want to push your children really, really hard to survive and if you want to tell them you've got a dragon with fire, breathing fire down the back of your neck because you've always been oppressed and you'll never know when you have to leave very quickly on short notice, you can duplicate the Jewish experience.
01:40:40.280Well, so I have zero interest in IQ, as I've always said, even though I've gotten a lot of pain for having ever touched the topic.
01:40:48.060But my only interest in differences in human intelligence as measured by IQ or otherwise between groups is that we need to solve the political puzzle you just mentioned,
01:41:03.300which is why does anyone think that discovering these differences would be a political catastrophe, right?
01:41:11.340Because we know this is what we should – we should go into the science knowing this.
01:41:17.180I'm not saying we should look for these differences, but these differences will ambush us because insofar as we understand intelligence or anything else at the level of the brain or at the level of the genome,
01:41:25.680we will just – you know, 23andMe is just going to tell you that there are these differences between groups in the relevant genes, say.
01:41:36.860So I'm not saying we look for these things, but we're going to be ambushed by them.
01:41:40.640And we just have to know in advance that any human trait that is governed by genetics to whatever degree is going to be – the moment it becomes measurable,
01:41:52.900it will be at some different mean value in different populations, however you define those populations, even spurious populations.
01:42:02.140You could take Yankees fans against Red Sox fans, and there's – it will be a miracle if the hundred traits you're interested in to inventory are – have the exact same mean level across those two groups.
01:42:16.160Now, in many cases, these are just going to be spurious comparisons, but insofar as there is a – there has been a genetic kind of canalization throughout human history
01:42:32.800where you can look at someone and give a pretty good guess that they're – you know, they come from sub-Saharan Africa or from the Indian subcontinent or Japan or Norway,
01:42:44.060and you can do that, you have to expect that there are going to be mean differences in traits that we find valuable.
01:42:55.900I mean, the thing that we know must matter is that we are committed to political equality in all of our pluralistic secular societies, and we should be.
01:43:06.420And the fact that there's some trait that we could eventually identify and measure that is going to be, you know, a standard deviation more or less on average in any given population, that's just – that can't matter.
01:43:24.220And what we know is that at the individual level, it simply can't matter because knowing that I'm 50 percent Ashkenazi Jew doesn't tell you anything about my intelligence, right?
01:43:39.900Like as an individual, I still have to demonstrate that.
01:43:42.420And it's just not – and I get absolutely no credit if I'm not – if I'm smart and not a bit smarter, I get no credit for having – being in one population versus another.
01:43:55.600The interesting thing is we don't have the Persian question because Persians are going to test really high.
01:44:00.420We don't have the Irish and Scottish question.
01:44:02.560We don't have the overseas Chinese question, right?
01:44:06.860So I think you have to turn it around and say, look, there's a lot of asymmetry in terms of success of groups, and we only have the Jewish question.
01:44:18.140And I think that this is what I find absolutely offensive.
01:44:21.060No, we only have the Jewish question in Western Europe, but Thomas Sowell's point was that there are Jews everywhere.
01:44:44.680But I think the broader point with both of what you're saying and the reason that we're terrified of these conversations is that it violates the sacred mantra of our society, which is we're all equal.
01:44:56.840You know, this is embedded in all our conversations.
01:45:55.620And we know we want a society that is fair, and that's completely independent of the differences between people.
01:46:05.460Like, we want everyone to have the opportunity, in terms of our ethical and political commitments, we want everyone to have every opportunity they can use, right?
01:46:16.400And if there's some people who can't, I mean, through no fault of it, like, there's someone right now being born from whatever population, with whatever genetic endowment, whatever culture surrounding them, waiting to improve their lives, with brain damage based on just a pure accident of what happened during labor, right?
01:46:37.400Because, you know, in a society where we have the bandwidth to just figure out how good life can be, right, where the bombs aren't falling and we're not facing some existential threat, we know we want to marshal our resources to make life as good as possible for everyone to the degree that they can have their hopes and dreams realized.
01:47:02.840And there are some very limited hopes and dreams that we need to cater to.
01:47:07.400I mean, just look at, you know, Make-A-Wish Foundation, right?
01:47:11.120It's like you have kids who have pediatric cancer who've got a time horizon of six months.
01:47:17.440What does a good life look like in that case?
01:47:19.840We know that success politically and economically for us in our society is to have the bandwidth to cater to that compassionately.
01:47:34.760And figuring out what the mean value for IQ is across groups is not part of that.
01:47:39.940And it's not an insult to that either.
01:47:42.760But if in our founding documents we have the idea that all men are created equal and we know that at that time women didn't have the vote and people held slaves,
01:47:49.940I don't think it's the case that one part of our soul cries out for equality at this more beautiful level and another part of our soul says, oh my gosh, these groups are super dangerous.
01:48:06.160They cannot accumulate more power, right?
01:48:09.060And that part of our soul we don't acknowledge, that we have our thumb on the scale trying to figure out who really shouldn't be voting,
01:48:18.160what information shouldn't be out in the public because it will tend to prejudice people.
01:48:22.940And I believe that in some sense we're just not able to be honest about our conflicts when we stay things like one man, one vote, and yet Wyoming gets two senators and California gets two senators.
01:48:37.400And we don't make eye contact with the fact that we are of many minds about equality and about accomplishment and achievement and what constitutes fairness.
01:48:49.840And in all of those different circumstances, we only feel comfortable with the part of the conflict that we can talk about in public without being eviscerated.
01:49:00.060And I think that we have to just be honest that we've been very uncomfortable about what is the form of equality that we are really about.
01:49:10.600And one of the things I love about the American Project is that our documents were abstract enough that things that weren't honored initially in the first instantiation are honored over time because there wasn't an explicit clause saying that women and blacks don't count, right?
01:49:26.960And so as a result of this, you know, we debated should only landholders, you know, be allowed to vote.
01:49:33.120The headroom in the documents is the thing that we should embrace.
01:49:36.440And it's one of the reasons why the 1619 Project was so dangerous is that we happen to have the good fortune of having wonderful documents with headroom that can mean things that weren't meant when the republic was founded.
01:49:48.760And trying to figure out how to become those people that we have never been is part of the most exciting, maybe the most exciting part of the American Project.
01:49:57.480Francis, we've got one more topic we can open up quickly.
01:50:03.140So I want to deal because I want and I want to discuss this, which is hope, because it's very easy, particularly in the landscape that we're talking about social media and all the rest of it, to become pessimistic.
01:50:18.540But let's look at hope and the grounds for hope.
01:50:20.720Are you hopeful, Eric, as to the future, as to the American?
01:50:28.980Well, just this morning I read a Conor Friedrichsdorf, I always forget his last name, the Atlantic writer.
01:50:41.900He wrote a piece today, which struck a note of hope in this emergency, which I'm not sure I certainly hope he's right.
01:50:51.500So he said that just as Joan Didion in one of her books, I think it was the White Album, I'm not sure, said that the Manson murders were the official end of the 60s.
01:51:04.500August 1969, all the idealism of the 60s just completely – once you have wild-eyed hippies murdering people, killing pregnant starlets, all the idealism of the 60s just evaporated.
01:51:23.240So his claim – and he's possibly right – what happened on college campuses in response to what happened in Israel was the end of the great awokening in his phrasing.
01:51:39.320It's like all of us are waiting for the pendulum to swing back from this just crazily eccentric distortion of ethics and political intuitions on the far left, and he's arguing that that bell just rang this week.
01:51:58.340And I certainly hope that's correct because the moral – not just untenability, just the abomination we're witnessing where you have the same people who are equally exercised over Halloween costumes that are cultural appropriation, and they're defending what happened in Israel last week.
01:52:27.240I think it's – that, you know, that dissonance, I think, is something we need to not lose sight of culture-wide.
01:52:37.820And, yeah, I mean, I think if that happens, I think that would be a very good thing.
01:52:44.980I mean, it would be a very good thing for speaking locally for American politics.
01:52:49.340I mean, we have a, you know, 15 months or so of an election cycle that many of us worry could be truly ugly and divisive.
01:53:00.040And to not have a crazy – having a decreasingly crazy far left and Democratic Party as a result would be a good thing.
01:53:09.680If you ask me, just picking up from the Joan Didion reference, if you look at the passage, it is the White Album, which – carefully – what she says is that there was the sense that someone was going to go too far, right?
01:53:23.600So she's really talking about a period between 1967 and 1969.
01:53:27.780It's really only sort of two or three years when the 60s were at that fever pitch.
01:53:35.320And then she says that it ends at that moment.
01:53:38.140It's one of the most beautiful essays I've ever read about our time, but I don't think it's accurate.
01:53:47.300I think that we've been in this probably since the Ruslan Ali Dear Colleague Letter in 2011.
01:53:57.200This has been going wrong for a lot longer.
01:54:00.320It's much more deeply enmeshed in our society.
01:54:03.440I don't know that the hippies at the free clinic in San Francisco were akin to the administrators in the diversity, equity, and inclusion substrate that is now infesting all of our universities.
01:54:19.980When it comes to hope, to be honest, one of the most hopeful things that happened, and I hate to put it in these terms, was the death of Dianne Feinstein.
01:54:32.940I didn't particularly have any strong feelings except for the fact that she was clearly not able to do her job and was being propped up by the system.
01:54:43.300And so without feeling good about the fact that someone died, although she lived a long life, there is the sense that we will never get rid of Nancy Pelosi.
01:54:54.000We will never get rid of Mitch McConnell.
01:54:55.480We will never be free of Tweedledum and Tweedledee in the form of Biden and Trump.
01:55:00.540And, of course, demography is going to have its way with the things that are blocking progress.
01:55:09.880We have had the same people in power for so long that we have given up, in effect, trying to make a more hopeful world.
01:55:17.720If you think about Joe Biden in 1972, he was 29 years old and a senator.
01:55:22.540And he's been there ever since, more or less.
01:55:24.380So hope comes from the fact that in 10 years' time, these people who seem like they would never leave the stage are going to be gone.
01:55:33.920And we have a one-time opportunity to reorder the world around AI, around a different generation of leadership, around the fact that our phones really matter in a way that are far more consequential than a piece of technology would be expected to, much more akin to the printing press.
01:55:52.240And there are going to be a crazy set of opportunities that, if we screw them up, we'll probably mean the end of the world.
01:55:58.720And if we don't screw them up, we will be exploring the next systems, the successor systems.
01:56:05.320Instead of trying to take a twin-fitted sheet and put it on a king-size mattress and that one corner was always going to pop off, that's what we've been doing for decades now.
01:56:15.880Sooner or later, somebody's going to have to buy or manufacture a much larger sheet for this mattress to get it to stay in place.
01:56:23.760And I think that what we're seeing is, I was previously hopeful that the post-World War II order would continue to hold so that the world didn't go multipolar with weapons of mass destruction.
01:56:35.880And if we survive that, then whatever structures that come after this, it's not going to be capitalism, it's not going to be communism, because you can see that ChatGPT and its successors are going to break the capital versus labor input.
01:56:48.920This is work that I'm doing with Pia Malani.
01:56:53.760We're going to have new economic systems, and it's not going to be the same players from the 20th century who are already a quarter of the way through the 21st preventing progress.
01:57:05.880And it comes down to, well, what is it that people in their 30s through 50s are going to re-engineer once the silent generation and boomers move on to better things?
01:57:17.040Well, if you want to hear the rest of this conversation, head over to Locals, where we ask Eric and Sam your questions and continue with our own.
01:57:24.720So what you're saying is you're pro-Trumps?