TRIGGERnometry - The Best Iran War Breakdown You'll See on the Internet with Aimen Dean & Richard Miniter

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00:01:06.820 Hello everybody and a very warm welcome to our very special live update on the situation in Iran.

00:01:17.460 We are super excited, if it's an appropriate word, to bring this to you because we have literally two of the very best guests in the world to discuss this.

00:01:26.060 We have the amazing American investigative journalist, repeated former guest of Trigonometry, of course, Richard Minneter, who's written a number of bestsellers,

00:01:35.620 including about terrorism, losing bin Laden, mastermind and leading from behind.

00:01:41.240 And in addition to that, he's based in Washington, D.C., from which he can bring us all the inside scoops.

00:01:46.060 And in addition to that, we, of course, have Eamon Dean, another former guest of the show, who is a former Al-Qaeda member, became an MI6 double agent.

00:01:54.680 And he is now the co-host of the Conflicted podcast with Thomas Small, another of our former guests, which covers the various conflicts in the Middle East.

00:02:02.980 And he's coming to us live from Dubai, where he's literally got fighter jets zooming past him behind him.

00:02:08.640 So welcome to you both, gentlemen. Thank you so much for joining us.

00:02:12.260 We really, first and foremost, just want to find out, Richard, tell us first and first of all, what has happened in the last two days?

00:02:20.240 Well, the it is the largest series of air sorties that Israel has ever conducted and one of the largest in U.S. history as well.

00:02:29.160 So we're looking at, in the last 48 hours, something approaching 2,000 separate sorties, looking at Israel and the United States combined.

00:02:41.260 This air operation is one of the largest in human history.

00:02:45.220 The number of targets on the ground destroyed, they're still doing battle damage assessments, but is immense.

00:02:52.800 It is interesting what they're not striking.

00:02:55.820 They're not striking water, power, and other things for the most part, except where those power facilities enable launching of long-range missiles.

00:03:07.360 The most interesting thing to have happened, which suggests that this will be a much longer conflict than necessary,

00:03:15.060 than might be strictly necessary if you think about it, in terms of the 12-day war that was waged earlier this, late last year,

00:03:22.460 or you look at the Gulf War, for example, the shock and awe campaign of the Gulf War,

00:03:28.620 is that the Ayatollah Khomeini, before he died, apparently issued standing orders to individual military units.

00:03:37.860 Allowing them to act on their own.

00:03:40.220 Iran's foreign minister, in complaining on state-run broadcasts about the attack on Oman,

00:03:46.360 said we have no control over those units.

00:03:48.760 They're functioning on standing orders.

00:03:50.380 They didn't mean to attack Oman, which has served as a vital intermediary between the Europeans and the Americans on the one hand,

00:03:59.100 and Iran on the other, long seen as a kind of Switzerland of the Gulf region.

00:04:03.380 For them to be attacked indicates that there's no longer centralized command and control over the military.

00:04:11.160 They're deciding on their own targets, and they're in a use-it or lose-it situation.

00:04:16.280 In other words, if they do not use their rockets and missiles now, their drones now,

00:04:21.340 they may not exist 24, 48 hours from now.

00:04:24.540 So they're doing their own target selection.

00:04:29.280 What does all that mean strategically?

00:04:31.380 It means that getting control, getting someone to negotiate with who could actually stop the Iranian attacks will be very difficult. 0.52

00:04:38.940 The Iranians are very intelligent, very sophisticated, 3-D chess-playing kind of people, and have been for centuries.

00:04:48.420 And the fact that the Ayatollah figured this out in advance, knew his life may well be taken,

00:04:54.700 and that of his top leadership dispersed authority down precisely to lengthen the war.

00:05:00.640 So this person who has directed attacks against Israelis, Americans, and Europeans for more than four decades,

00:05:09.700 even in death, set up an autopilot to allow for the continuing carnage.

00:05:16.620 This is a blood-stained legacy.

00:05:18.780 He will not be mourned by many outside of the inner circle.

00:05:22.340 And Richard, before we bring Eamon in, just very quickly, you mentioned that they've got a use-it-or-lose-it situation.

00:05:28.860 If you don't launch the missiles, they're going to get destroyed.

00:05:32.500 How many do they have?

00:05:33.880 Have they launched most of them?

00:05:35.300 Have they launched a tiny fraction of them?

00:05:36.980 How long is this going to carry on?

00:05:39.620 It's hard to know.

00:05:40.620 I mean, there are almost certainly people at the Ministry of Defense in Israel or at the Pentagon here in the United States

00:05:46.720 who have very accurate counts based on satellite data and on-the-ground intelligence.

00:05:52.080 We don't know what capacity of theirs is functioning.

00:05:55.840 And it's not just the functioning of the rocket or the missile or the drone itself,

00:05:59.860 but it's the ability to gather targeting information.

00:06:04.640 As we see these missiles go wide or drones or what have you, these attacks go wider.

00:06:10.760 It indicates that their targeting capability is declining.

00:06:13.760 And, of course, those things are being actively found and bombed.

00:06:18.380 But also bear in mind that they have units in caves and underground bunkers that can emerge under the sky,

00:06:25.060 launch, and then automatically retract back into those underground bunker situations.

00:06:31.480 The Israelis have a limitation. 1.00

00:06:32.980 They cannot generally drop bombs of more than 5,000 pounds.

00:06:37.260 So those will require U.S. strikes.

00:06:41.880 And there are, frankly, more targets than there are planes to take them all out.

00:06:46.980 So how many do they have left?

00:06:49.180 People give all sorts of numbers.

00:06:51.320 I don't think any of those are reliable.

00:06:53.360 And for the people who would be in a position to know,

00:06:56.560 they're not telling us for obvious operational security reasons.

00:06:59.420 Eamon, give us your perspective, particularly given that you are in Dubai and know the region very well.

00:07:05.520 What is your take on everything that's been going on?

00:07:08.380 What has happened in the Middle East?

00:07:11.380 Well, I mean, it was coming.

00:07:14.760 I mean, basically, it was inevitable that this clash will take place.

00:07:17.700 And there was no going back.

00:07:20.360 At the end of the day, the Ayatollah's regime, you know, of the Islamic Republic of Iran,

00:07:27.860 were for decades building a terror network within and outside of Iran in order to challenge,

00:07:35.380 you know, the status quo within the region, to challenge, you know,

00:07:39.540 both the American, Israeli, Saudi, Egyptian, Turkish, you know, power in the region.

00:07:47.700 I mean, first of all, we have to understand that their ambition for a nuclear weapon

00:07:53.280 was born out of the lessons gained from North Korea

00:07:59.140 and how North Korea was able to withstand or at least, like, I mean,

00:08:04.640 have this immunity from invasion due to the fact that they developed a nuclear device.

00:08:12.020 And so from 2005 onward, so 20 years, they accelerated their nuclear weapon program.

00:08:20.820 But then, of course, they were under far more scrutiny than North Korea for all the obvious reasons,

00:08:27.180 because of the fact that they have proxies across the region, you know, including Hezbollah.

00:08:33.020 And then they built, you know, the Iraqi militias after the U.S. invasion of Iraq.

00:08:39.280 And then they built the Houthi militia starting from, some people say, like, from 2009.

00:08:45.140 But I do believe it started really as early as 1994 in Yemen.

00:08:50.840 In addition to that, of course, they supported Hamas since 2009 onwards.

00:08:56.140 And in my opinion, all of these activities put so much scrutiny on their nuclear program

00:09:02.440 and the fear that if they become a nuclear-armed state,

00:09:07.920 and since they are the largest terror-sponsor state in the region and across the world,

00:09:14.280 then that would make it extremely difficult to counter their expansionist ambitions.

00:09:19.020 I mean, after all, the dear leader of North Korea, whether Kim Jong-un or his father or grandfather,

00:09:25.840 never had any proxy militias or any expansionist ambitions, you know,

00:09:30.920 taking over Japan or establishing a militias in the Philippines.

00:09:34.360 I mean, basically, like, you know, they were contained.

00:09:36.440 The problem with Iran, given the fact that it's 1.7 million square kilometers,

00:09:40.880 it is a 92 million population, and they have an ideological flavor to their constitution.

00:09:48.460 That makes it imperative that they export the revolution to other states

00:09:54.800 under the ideology of the Shia Muslim faith,

00:10:00.740 which believe in eschatology and the return of a savior, a messiah figure, a Mahdi.

00:10:06.560 All of these meant that they will use the Shia minorities of the region as a Trojan horse 1.00

00:10:11.340 in order to undermine other governments.

00:10:14.240 And so, one way or another, you know, a clash was inevitable,

00:10:18.740 especially with Israel and, of course, with Israel's, you know,

00:10:21.480 most important ally, the United States.

00:10:24.240 So what happened on February 28th was the inevitable outcome of decades

00:10:30.580 that was of policies, accumulated policies,

00:10:34.660 and accumulated strategic milestones that led to that moment.

00:10:38.960 And Eamon, that being the case, what role did October the 7th play in this?

00:10:46.060 Was it a catalyst or did it make the inevitable even more inevitable?

00:10:51.900 It did really make the inevitable more inevitable

00:10:54.900 because if this is what one of the smallest, least supported proxies of Iran could do,

00:11:01.800 and that's from a space of 340 square kilometers, which is the Gaza Strip,

00:11:08.060 if Iran was so reckless that they would send Hamas 0.86

00:11:12.960 and the entirety of the population of Gaza on a suicide mission, 0.82

00:11:17.760 what would they do with Hezbollah in Lebanon later?

00:11:20.380 What would they do?

00:11:21.140 And, of course, remember that during October 7th,

00:11:23.980 the Assad regime was still there in power,

00:11:26.620 and they could have also stormed from the Golan Heights.

00:11:30.820 So at the end of the day, they realized that, you know what,

00:11:35.620 we have tolerated a state sponsor of terror

00:11:39.040 and the existence of the cancerous phenomenon

00:11:43.520 of the heavily armed and numerous non-state actors

00:11:49.720 who could threaten nation-states across the region

00:11:53.060 and wreak havoc across the region.

00:11:54.920 And so there was that moment, that realization,

00:11:58.700 that we can no longer, no longer whatsoever,

00:12:02.680 tolerate the presence of non-state actors

00:12:05.300 supported by this ideologically driven eschatological,

00:12:10.760 you know, high on eschatology, I would say,

00:12:13.020 high on prophecies of a saviour's regime

00:12:16.100 in order to undermine the nation-states across the region,

00:12:19.880 not only Israel, but also Saudi Arabia.

00:12:21.760 You know, it suffered a lot, like at the hands of the Houthis in Yemen,

00:12:25.180 as well as Bahrain, which suffered instability,

00:12:28.100 and the civil war in Syria and Yemen,

00:12:30.660 which combined killed 2 million people

00:12:33.380 and displaced 25 million others.

00:12:35.360 Many people don't understand that the legacy of Iran

00:12:38.820 in the region is extremely bloody,

00:12:41.180 unlike the, unfortunately, leftist rosy vision of Iran,

00:12:46.380 which present them as freedom fighters or oppressed minority.

00:12:49.980 And therefore, like, I mean, we need to treat them with velvet gloves.

00:12:54.740 And Eamon, before we move over to Richard,

00:12:58.260 has there been broadly support from the Arab nations for this war?

00:13:02.340 I mean, when the news of Ayatollah Khamenei being killed

00:13:11.220 were broadcasted across the region,

00:13:14.820 there were celebrations, not only in Iran itself,

00:13:18.100 where people went out and started playing music

00:13:20.440 and dancing on the streets.

00:13:22.260 That's in Iran.

00:13:23.020 Can you imagine the scenes in Syria,

00:13:26.780 you know, where people were distributing sweets

00:13:28.700 and celebrating the fall of the tyrant

00:13:30.940 that fueled their 14 years bloody civil war,

00:13:35.680 and in Yemen, where people are still suffering,

00:13:39.580 you know, from the outcome of the civil war

00:13:42.040 that was fueled by him.

00:13:43.720 And so you can imagine, you know, the people of Saudi Arabia,

00:13:47.120 the people of Bahrain, the people of Kuwait,

00:13:48.860 the people of the UAE, you know,

00:13:51.240 these are people who did not have any favorable view,

00:13:55.620 you know, of the Islamic regime in Iran.

00:14:00.400 So there is a broader support under the basis

00:14:03.760 that this is a kind of a chemotherapy

00:14:07.560 that the region needs in order to get rid of a cancerous tumor,

00:14:13.160 which is the institution and the ideals

00:14:16.540 of the Islamic revolution in Iran and its IRGC.

00:14:21.240 You know, the spearhead when it comes to funding

00:14:24.980 and equipping and training terror organizations

00:14:27.380 in the region.

00:14:28.840 And Richard, I imagine that all of us here

00:14:31.260 are happy to see scenes of people in Iran

00:14:33.880 celebrating this person and this regime

00:14:36.920 no longer being there to brutalize them, 0.99

00:14:39.880 to kill them in their thousands. 0.96

00:14:41.560 We see people, of course, all over the world celebrating. 0.97

00:14:43.960 But I also think those of us who grew up

00:14:46.700 in the era of the war in Iraq in particular,

00:14:50.220 whenever people utter the words regime change,

00:14:52.680 I sort of get a bit of a shiver going down my spine.

00:14:55.840 And I don't necessarily get that excited about it.

00:14:59.600 You know, and you see,

00:15:00.920 one of the things I'd like for us to discuss as well

00:15:03.620 is where this is going,

00:15:04.960 because I was just looking while you guys were talking

00:15:08.220 at the Kalshi odds for Reza Pahlavi

00:15:10.920 being the next leader of Iran.

00:15:12.780 It's like 25%.

00:15:14.100 So it doesn't look like that is going to be

00:15:16.980 the direction of travel.

00:15:18.500 So is this a regime change war?

00:15:21.160 And if it is,

00:15:21.980 what is the next regime actually going to look like?

00:15:25.880 Well, is it a regime change?

00:15:27.740 We have to look at, first of all,

00:15:30.460 that Israel and the United States

00:15:32.260 have very different desired end states.

00:15:36.340 In Israel, they would love to see Reza Pahlavi

00:15:42.120 or someone like him have a constitutional monarchy

00:15:44.680 that focuses Iran on rebuilding its civil infrastructure.

00:15:49.560 I mean, there are massive water shortages.

00:15:52.100 70% of its provinces are without 24-hour electricity

00:15:56.580 or without ready access to water.

00:15:58.760 Five of the reservoirs that feed Tehran,

00:16:02.280 which is a city of about 10 million

00:16:03.920 with the surrounding area of about 18 million.

00:16:07.920 Five of those reservoirs are at 10% or less capacity.

00:16:11.760 So there's a profound humanitarian catastrophe

00:16:15.500 that was underway before this bombing began,

00:16:19.560 which this bombing will only accelerate.

00:16:22.180 So the Israelis would like to see a peaceful transition

00:16:25.240 with a monarchy that supervises elections

00:16:28.320 and a more modest Iranian state

00:16:31.540 that focuses on solving the problems of its own people.

00:16:35.260 That does not appear to be the desired end state

00:16:37.960 of the Trump administration.

00:16:40.820 They just simply want an Iran 1.00

00:16:42.980 that leaves its neighbors alone.

00:16:45.640 If there can be some rebuilding projects

00:16:47.800 that benefit American and European companies, fine.

00:16:50.860 But the most important element here,

00:16:56.260 which has not been reported,

00:16:57.680 is the CIA has given a no-kill list to the Israelis.

00:17:02.980 A group, we don't know who's on that list,

00:17:05.040 but five to 10 names, maybe more,

00:17:07.480 of people that are not allowed to target.

00:17:10.320 That indicates to me,

00:17:12.480 and this is just my private interpretation,

00:17:14.860 that the CIA already has someone in mind

00:17:17.240 from the power structure that would take over. 0.96

00:17:20.560 That is not a regime change.

00:17:22.360 That is a pruning and a moderation

00:17:25.620 of the current regime.

00:17:28.240 Now, events on the street may make that CIA change impossible,

00:17:34.320 but the CIA tends to like continuations

00:17:38.960 based on variations rather than wholesale change

00:17:42.380 because wholesale change is impossible to predict the outcome.

00:17:47.240 So let's look at Iran for a moment, right?

00:17:49.640 So you have, depending on which census numbers you believe,

00:17:52.980 91, 93 million people.

00:17:56.540 A majority, a large majority report

00:17:58.840 that they are Shia Muslims,

00:18:00.200 but are very different persuasions.

00:18:03.020 Outside of that, who are native Persians,

00:18:06.960 you have a lot of minorities,

00:18:09.000 Aziris, Azerbaijanis, a lot of Kurds,

00:18:14.560 other ethnic groups as well.

00:18:17.240 A growing number of Christians,

00:18:19.560 a growing number of Zoroastrians.

00:18:21.400 We don't have good numbers on any of this

00:18:22.860 because to report religious conversion

00:18:25.860 is to invite punishment and death under the old regime.

00:18:29.360 But these people have very different ideas

00:18:31.880 about what they'd like to see take over.

00:18:35.440 Regarding Pahlavi, who I've met,

00:18:37.980 but it's been a few years,

00:18:38.860 who is a very urbane, educated, liberal-minded man.

00:18:44.520 The Israelis are entirely enamored of him.

00:18:50.020 The Trump White House appears to actively dislike him 0.62

00:18:53.380 as treacherous, double-sided,

00:18:56.520 not understanding that he has to unite factions

00:19:01.620 and make lots of side deals,

00:19:03.180 which means that at different times

00:19:04.800 and different places,

00:19:05.560 he will say different things.

00:19:07.920 This is something that they feel is not businesslike

00:19:11.020 and they find him as frustrating to deal with

00:19:15.560 as Zelensky, maybe more so.

00:19:18.540 The Arabs have also,

00:19:20.140 the Arab governments of the Gulf,

00:19:21.180 have been alienated by Pahlavi

00:19:22.440 when he demanded large sums of money

00:19:25.180 and including payments to his Swiss bank accounts

00:19:28.460 without a lot of accountability or a plan.

00:19:32.820 So there are,

00:19:34.300 and then the Europeans,

00:19:35.680 aside from the French,

00:19:36.900 also seem a little bit cool to Pahlavi.

00:19:39.340 So I think the prediction market of 25%

00:19:42.800 may be generous.

00:19:44.700 He doesn't have an outside supporter

00:19:46.860 who seems to like him.

00:19:48.880 On the other hand,

00:19:50.520 the younger people,

00:19:51.700 those under 25,

00:19:52.840 which is a majority of the population in Iran,

00:19:55.860 do seem to like him.

00:19:57.480 And they have a,

00:19:59.400 remember these people were not alive

00:20:01.160 when the last Shah was ruling their country. 0.80

00:20:03.980 And so they don't have a nostalgic view,

00:20:06.580 they have an idealistic view.

00:20:08.420 And he may be able to summon them.

00:20:10.600 And if he has a large swell of popular support,

00:20:12.600 it may not matter what dreams the CIA has concocted

00:20:16.520 in its quiet cubicles.

00:20:19.680 So this is very much a jump ball.

00:20:23.080 The Trump people are also looking at political reality

00:20:25.900 in the United States.

00:20:27.480 Somewhere between a quarter and a third

00:20:29.320 of Americans surveyed

00:20:30.980 are in favor of this bombing campaign.

00:20:33.660 The calculation of the Trump people is

00:20:36.200 if this turns into a quick victory,

00:20:39.160 that support will jump to 60%.

00:20:41.280 Americans love victory the way the Romans did. 0.97

00:20:44.820 And for similar reasons.

00:20:46.840 And a quick victory means the bombing stops.

00:20:53.520 There is not a prolonged civil war

00:20:55.700 or even much of a civil war at all.

00:20:57.900 And Iran seems to be going on with the business 0.88

00:21:01.020 of tending to its own affairs

00:21:04.500 and stopping the financing of proxy-ist terror attacks.

00:21:08.660 The quickest path there is a Maduro-like solution.

00:21:12.420 But that might not be the reality on the ground.

00:21:16.440 Venezuela, as Francis knows,

00:21:18.720 is a much different country than Iran.

00:21:22.120 Iran has many centers of power.

00:21:24.440 It is a, the geography is important here,

00:21:28.780 dividing the country with mountain ranges

00:21:31.440 which form cultural pockets.

00:21:33.160 It has very different numbers of minority,

00:21:38.060 ethnic minorities, and religious minorities

00:21:40.720 that have different views as well.

00:21:42.760 And there are outside groups

00:21:46.260 such as the Baluch in Pakistan

00:21:48.540 who they have cousins, Baluch cousins

00:21:51.000 across the border in southwest Iran

00:21:53.360 or southeast Iran rather,

00:21:55.200 who would like to start taking out coastal batteries

00:21:58.020 and elements of the Iranian Navy

00:22:01.900 that are laying sea mines

00:22:05.120 to block the Strait of Hormuz

00:22:06.700 and drive up oil and gas prices

00:22:08.860 to extract pain on the West, of course.

00:22:11.860 But they would want some guarantees

00:22:13.520 and some smaller subsidiary sovereignty

00:22:19.240 for the Baluch people inside Iran,

00:22:22.380 which is not in the CIA's plans.

00:22:25.400 So it's a jump ball.

00:22:27.740 Who knows what's going to happen?

00:22:29.440 But one thing we do know what's going to happen

00:22:31.540 is that the Iranian vision,

00:22:33.600 sorry, the Iranian vision,

00:22:35.220 the Israeli vision, and the U.S. vision,

00:22:37.780 three different visions,

00:22:39.620 will separate over time.

00:22:42.620 And they have very different short-term political needs.

00:22:48.040 Israel is probably a longer-term view

00:22:49.940 because their scheduled elections

00:22:51.320 are not for several years.

00:22:52.920 But the U.S. has scheduled elections in November.

00:22:55.600 Early voting begins in mid-September.

00:22:58.340 So the desire for something quick

00:23:00.620 that can be reported as a victory is intense.

00:23:03.540 Meanwhile, the Iranians 1.00

00:23:04.640 are also very short-term thinking

00:23:07.020 because they're starved of electricity,

00:23:11.140 of water, and increasingly of food.

00:23:15.260 So there may not be philosopher kings

00:23:19.140 who can design the ideal outcome,

00:23:21.260 and we don't know what it'll be.

00:23:25.020 Well, one vision that wasn't mentioned there, Eamon,

00:23:27.540 is what is the vision of the Gulf Arab nations,

00:23:30.480 which have, as you were describing earlier,

00:23:32.780 I mean, everyone bangs on about Israel being behind this,

00:23:36.600 but they're ignoring the fact that the Saudis

00:23:38.920 were literally on the phone to Trump in the week

00:23:40.720 before going,

00:23:41.320 do it now, do it now,

00:23:42.360 from what we are told.

00:23:43.300 There was an article in the Washington Post.

00:23:45.580 What about the Gulf countries?

00:23:47.480 What do they want?

00:23:49.740 Well, look, at the end of the day,

00:23:52.440 the Saudis in particular,

00:23:55.340 who are, along with the Emiratis,

00:23:57.300 are the drivers of the overall

00:24:00.660 Sunni Arab states policy towards Iran.

00:24:04.560 And the policy was always trying to do containment

00:24:08.460 up until 2015,

00:24:10.860 but then after 2015,

00:24:13.820 the containment policy turns out

00:24:16.040 to be completely counterproductive

00:24:17.920 because Iran,

00:24:19.700 after feeling emboldened,

00:24:21.180 the Islamic regime,

00:24:22.020 after being emboldened by the successes

00:24:24.380 they had in building their proxies in Iraq,

00:24:28.880 saving Assad in Syria

00:24:30.740 from falling during the civil war,

00:24:35.900 and of course by emboldening Hezbollah, 0.57

00:24:37.540 they built up that capability of the Houthis,

00:24:41.280 which then was at the southwestern flank

00:24:45.220 of Saudi Arabia.

00:24:46.940 And suddenly the Saudis found themselves 1.00

00:24:48.640 surrounded, you know,

00:24:50.120 from three sides.

00:24:52.140 It was always like in the north,

00:24:53.780 which is Iraq,

00:24:54.940 you know,

00:24:55.300 the east,

00:24:56.160 which is Iran,

00:24:56.660 and now suddenly the south,

00:24:58.620 which is Yemen,

00:25:00.320 they always felt that only one strait

00:25:02.260 was vulnerable,

00:25:03.180 which is the Hormuz Strait,

00:25:04.260 and now they have Bab and Mendeb Strait

00:25:06.140 to worry about.

00:25:07.200 And suddenly,

00:25:07.880 like, you know,

00:25:08.120 they felt that their energy export security

00:25:11.680 was threatened.

00:25:12.540 They felt that their,

00:25:14.660 in particular also,

00:25:17.040 food security

00:25:19.120 was threatened

00:25:20.640 because they were dependent

00:25:21.960 on overseas imports

00:25:24.460 into Saudi Arabia.

00:25:27.400 But then,

00:25:29.080 you know,

00:25:29.860 it's a water security too.

00:25:31.360 I mean,

00:25:31.600 many people don't understand

00:25:32.680 that Saudi Arabia

00:25:33.440 is 95% dependent

00:25:35.700 on water desalination.

00:25:37.380 during the war

00:25:39.220 between Iraq and Iran

00:25:40.420 and the introduction

00:25:41.960 of the ballistic missile,

00:25:43.760 you know,

00:25:43.980 tit-for-tat fight

00:25:45.540 between Saddam's Iraq 0.76

00:25:48.420 and Khomeini's Iran.

00:25:50.340 King Fahd of Saudi Arabia

00:25:52.880 at that time realized that,

00:25:54.920 okay,

00:25:55.720 you know,

00:25:56.160 they are attacking

00:25:56.700 each other's oil rigs.

00:25:58.620 What if,

00:25:59.020 like,

00:25:59.160 one of these missiles

00:26:00.440 finds their way

00:26:01.320 into one of the

00:26:02.320 three major

00:26:03.540 water desalination plants

00:26:05.860 in the eastern province

00:26:07.180 on the Gulf?

00:26:09.300 You know,

00:26:10.040 we will have

00:26:10.900 a total collapse

00:26:11.840 of society

00:26:12.440 because Saudi Arabia

00:26:13.360 wasn't designed

00:26:14.220 to hold 38 million people.

00:26:16.600 In fact,

00:26:17.040 it's not even designed

00:26:17.840 to have 3 million people

00:26:19.100 based on the water shortage

00:26:21.680 that they have.

00:26:22.960 And that's why

00:26:24.180 King Fahd decided

00:26:25.040 to build 17 more

00:26:26.580 water desalination plants

00:26:28.100 of smaller sizes

00:26:28.960 in the Red Sea,

00:26:30.960 only for the Houthis then 0.92

00:26:32.260 to appear

00:26:33.600 in the red,

00:26:34.340 you know,

00:26:34.600 on his,

00:26:36.220 you know,

00:26:36.480 on the Saudi's

00:26:37.200 Red Sea flank

00:26:38.020 threatening the water

00:26:39.580 desalination there.

00:26:40.900 So the Saudis felt

00:26:42.120 since then

00:26:42.640 that only confrontation,

00:26:44.760 you know,

00:26:45.160 is the real policy.

00:26:46.640 And this is when

00:26:47.200 the temperature

00:26:47.700 started to rise.

00:26:48.580 But then,

00:26:49.540 then,

00:26:51.260 you know,

00:26:52.060 while the Saudis felt

00:26:53.800 that,

00:26:54.600 they were frustrated,

00:26:55.480 of course,

00:26:55.740 because of the fact

00:26:57.220 that air campaigns

00:26:58.620 never succeed

00:27:00.500 in dislodging

00:27:01.320 groups like the Houthis.

00:27:03.540 I mean,

00:27:03.860 just look at America

00:27:04.640 with the Taliban

00:27:05.260 in Afghanistan.

00:27:08.080 But nonetheless,

00:27:09.120 they felt that

00:27:09.900 when there was

00:27:12.380 a change of administration

00:27:13.540 from

00:27:14.280 President Trump

00:27:18.000 in the first administration

00:27:19.180 to President Biden,

00:27:21.300 or shall I call it

00:27:22.060 like,

00:27:22.300 you know,

00:27:22.460 Obama's third term,

00:27:25.040 you know,

00:27:25.380 when that happened,

00:27:26.300 and of course,

00:27:27.660 there was a rather 0.98

00:27:29.280 pathetic, 0.97

00:27:31.760 rather like, 1.00

00:27:32.320 you know,

00:27:32.460 basically,

00:27:33.340 you know,

00:27:35.020 unbecoming,

00:27:36.620 you know,

00:27:36.960 of the United States

00:27:37.720 desire of restoring

00:27:39.180 the nuclear program,

00:27:41.780 you know,

00:27:42.380 agreement,

00:27:43.500 like,

00:27:43.660 you know,

00:27:43.760 the nuclear agreement,

00:27:45.260 the JCOPA

00:27:46.380 with Iran.

00:27:48.180 And because of,

00:27:50.200 you know,

00:27:51.080 certain figures

00:27:52.180 within the Biden administration,

00:27:54.160 whether it is

00:27:54.640 the former Obama administration,

00:27:56.140 figures like

00:27:56.700 Valerie Jarrett,

00:27:57.980 or a new figure

00:27:59.500 like Robert Mali

00:28:00.520 in the Biden administration,

00:28:03.860 they put significant pressure

00:28:05.620 on the Biden presidency

00:28:07.300 to,

00:28:08.580 in order to

00:28:09.580 carry favor

00:28:11.700 with Iran

00:28:13.160 and the Iranian regime

00:28:14.360 at that time,

00:28:15.200 to actually

00:28:16.620 put pressure

00:28:17.720 on the Saudi

00:28:18.580 side

00:28:20.100 to end the war

00:28:21.560 with the Houthis.

00:28:22.900 By then,

00:28:23.860 the Houthis,

00:28:24.420 over eight years period,

00:28:25.500 has launched

00:28:26.760 more than

00:28:27.180 1,000 ballistic missiles

00:28:28.900 and 2,000 drones

00:28:29.920 against Saudi Arabia.

00:28:31.340 And all of them

00:28:31.920 were Iranian-made,

00:28:33.140 by the way,

00:28:33.540 and Iranian-smuggled to them.

00:28:36.000 So,

00:28:37.200 how do you then

00:28:38.400 pressure the Saudis 1.00

00:28:39.800 to stop the war?

00:28:40.680 The Saudis are saying,

00:28:41.800 we are going to stop the war 0.97

00:28:42.980 only when the Houthis 0.73

00:28:44.040 give up the access

00:28:46.460 to the sea

00:28:47.080 so they don't threaten

00:28:48.880 international maritime traffic.

00:28:52.300 And just keep this in mind,

00:28:53.840 please,

00:28:54.820 and then

00:28:55.480 if they give up

00:28:56.860 any long-range

00:28:57.820 offensive weapons,

00:28:58.820 more than 150-kilometer range,

00:29:00.980 if they do that,

00:29:02.140 we will end the war 0.97

00:29:03.120 and they can form

00:29:04.420 a power-sharing agreement

00:29:06.260 with the other Yemeni parties

00:29:07.500 and we will end the war.

00:29:08.700 The Biden administration

00:29:10.400 said that,

00:29:12.020 no,

00:29:12.380 the Houthis

00:29:12.740 will not accept that

00:29:13.480 but because

00:29:14.300 we have far greater priority

00:29:16.240 is that 0.96

00:29:17.460 pathetic nuclear agreement 0.99

00:29:19.340 that we need 1.00

00:29:19.880 with the Iranians

00:29:20.640 so we're going to

00:29:22.280 stop

00:29:22.640 giving you the munitions

00:29:24.540 that we agreed

00:29:25.800 to supply you

00:29:27.060 and that you purchased

00:29:28.940 and paid for

00:29:29.520 in good faith.

00:29:30.440 We will not give it to you

00:29:31.740 so you can't carry out

00:29:33.380 your war.

00:29:33.700 And the Saudis said

00:29:34.620 by all means,

00:29:35.800 we will make our own.

00:29:38.520 But then the Biden administration

00:29:40.020 went further

00:29:40.960 and that was

00:29:42.160 a rough between

00:29:43.020 November and December

00:29:44.400 of 2021

00:29:45.060 when they said

00:29:46.200 to the Saudis,

00:29:47.400 well,

00:29:47.560 we're going to stop

00:29:48.160 supplying you

00:29:48.980 with the Patriot

00:29:49.740 missile systems

00:29:51.560 that are necessary

00:29:53.500 to intercept

00:29:54.520 the Houthi ballistic missiles

00:29:56.080 so you become

00:29:57.860 sitting ducks

00:29:58.520 and so

00:30:00.060 and when the Saudis

00:30:01.360 are saying

00:30:01.660 well,

00:30:01.880 we have enough

00:30:02.380 supply for about

00:30:03.600 six months,

00:30:04.060 seven months,

00:30:04.420 we'll continue the fight

00:30:05.240 so by March

00:30:06.900 of 2022

00:30:08.280 Biden administration

00:30:10.800 gave the biggest

00:30:11.960 stab in the back 0.84

00:30:12.660 to the Saudis 0.56

00:30:13.320 by saying

00:30:14.280 we're not going to

00:30:14.920 update the software

00:30:15.660 so you're truly

00:30:17.900 going to be

00:30:18.660 sitting ducks now

00:30:19.640 your water,

00:30:20.780 your oil facilities

00:30:21.700 and already

00:30:23.420 like in 2019

00:30:24.400 the Saudis

00:30:25.620 you know

00:30:26.240 Saudi Aramco

00:30:27.100 was struck

00:30:27.580 and almost

00:30:28.080 5.7 million

00:30:29.140 barrels of oil

00:30:29.940 every day

00:30:30.580 for 22 days

00:30:31.380 were lost

00:30:31.900 to the global

00:30:33.160 production.

00:30:34.660 The Biden administration

00:30:35.900 gave the Saudis 1.00

00:30:37.400 the trauma

00:30:37.880 of their lives

00:30:38.580 that you cannot

00:30:39.820 rely on America

00:30:40.780 because America

00:30:42.020 was slavishly

00:30:43.400 you know

00:30:44.020 seeking

00:30:44.420 the satisfaction

00:30:46.160 of rabid

00:30:48.140 fanatical

00:30:50.020 mullahs 0.98

00:30:51.060 you know

00:30:51.440 in Tahran

00:30:51.940 favoring them

00:30:52.960 over an ally

00:30:53.860 that has been

00:30:54.420 steadfast beside them

00:30:55.480 for 75 years

00:30:56.420 that changed

00:30:58.040 the equation

00:30:58.500 and that's why

00:30:59.060 the Saudis

00:31:00.200 decided that

00:31:01.180 if Iran 0.82

00:31:01.960 is so powerful

00:31:02.680 that even America

00:31:03.540 is like you know

00:31:04.220 kissing the ring

00:31:04.880 and you know

00:31:05.560 literally

00:31:06.180 and asking for

00:31:07.620 you know

00:31:08.520 forgiveness

00:31:08.880 for what Trump

00:31:09.580 did before

00:31:10.140 in terms of

00:31:10.760 tearing apart

00:31:11.380 that awful

00:31:12.640 nuclear deal

00:31:13.340 then you might

00:31:14.680 as well like

00:31:15.120 you know

00:31:15.360 do a deal

00:31:16.140 with them

00:31:16.420 and that's why

00:31:16.960 the Saudis

00:31:17.980 went to China

00:31:19.100 and you know

00:31:21.100 by you know

00:31:22.340 March of 2023

00:31:23.720 the Chinese

00:31:25.040 brokered a deal

00:31:25.940 between the Saudis

00:31:27.360 and the Iranians 0.89

00:31:28.220 for a detente

00:31:29.380 you know

00:31:29.980 for a non-aggression

00:31:31.160 pact

00:31:31.580 and that was

00:31:34.040 borne out

00:31:34.880 of the

00:31:35.880 fact that

00:31:37.140 the Saudis

00:31:38.080 cannot

00:31:38.600 trust

00:31:39.980 any American

00:31:40.760 administration

00:31:41.280 after that

00:31:42.040 of betraying them

00:31:43.280 you know

00:31:44.000 just in order

00:31:44.660 to seek

00:31:45.320 you know

00:31:46.040 a deal

00:31:47.220 with the Iranians

00:31:48.380 over the

00:31:49.640 national security

00:31:50.600 interests of the Saudis

00:31:51.600 what happened

00:31:52.720 what changed

00:31:53.340 Trump came back

00:31:54.520 and what changed

00:31:56.660 everything

00:31:57.160 was the B2s

00:31:59.020 in 24 June

00:32:00.760 last year

00:32:01.940 smashing

00:32:03.020 the nuclear

00:32:04.080 facilities

00:32:06.360 in Fordow

00:32:07.520 Natanz

00:32:08.320 and Isfahan

00:32:09.020 that changed

00:32:10.280 the mindset

00:32:10.720 of the

00:32:11.820 Crown Prince

00:32:12.200 of Saudi Arabia

00:32:12.860 MBS

00:32:13.340 that aha

00:32:14.520 okay

00:32:14.880 maybe now

00:32:15.700 there has been

00:32:17.160 a significant

00:32:18.620 shift

00:32:19.300 in American

00:32:20.420 policy

00:32:20.920 we can now

00:32:22.280 trust that

00:32:23.080 there will be

00:32:24.300 a regime

00:32:25.140 not change

00:32:26.380 necessarily

00:32:27.180 what they were

00:32:28.160 looking at

00:32:28.960 a actual

00:32:30.240 regime

00:32:30.840 containment

00:32:31.680 that could 0.68

00:32:32.900 actually

00:32:33.360 like you know

00:32:33.840 finally push them

00:32:34.720 back into their

00:32:35.460 own borders

00:32:36.080 in a way that

00:32:37.820 would deter them

00:32:38.900 from interfering

00:32:39.640 in their

00:32:40.320 neighbors affairs

00:32:41.260 and that's why

00:32:41.940 the UAE

00:32:43.000 and Saudi Arabia

00:32:43.720 despite their

00:32:44.260 differences in

00:32:44.820 Yemen and

00:32:45.260 Sudan and

00:32:45.660 elsewhere

00:32:45.920 they were

00:32:46.920 united

00:32:47.320 in the fact

00:32:48.480 that it's

00:32:49.800 now or

00:32:50.400 never

00:32:50.840 and so

00:32:51.820 when the

00:32:52.460 Saudis saw 1.00

00:32:53.140 the two

00:32:53.460 aircraft carriers

00:32:54.160 and the

00:32:54.840 biggest buildup

00:32:56.520 in the Middle East

00:32:57.840 since 2003

00:32:58.620 they realized

00:32:59.600 that it's

00:33:00.440 now or never

00:33:01.120 and they

00:33:01.520 agreed with

00:33:02.000 the Israelis

00:33:02.400 on this

00:33:02.940 but that

00:33:04.960 being the

00:33:05.340 case

00:33:05.640 Eman 0.80

00:33:05.920 you outlined

00:33:07.720 what was

00:33:08.440 happening

00:33:08.820 beautifully

00:33:09.440 in Saudi

00:33:10.680 and the

00:33:11.300 other

00:33:11.440 countries

00:33:11.980 it's still

00:33:13.240 one hell

00:33:13.840 of a

00:33:14.080 gamble

00:33:14.360 isn't it

00:33:15.340 it is

00:33:16.500 I mean

00:33:17.140 one of the

00:33:19.400 things

00:33:19.720 I've been

00:33:20.220 I've been

00:33:20.620 talking to

00:33:20.960 people of

00:33:21.320 course

00:33:21.460 like you know

00:33:21.840 from the

00:33:22.180 Ministry of

00:33:22.700 Foreign Affairs

00:33:23.060 in Saudi

00:33:23.460 Arabia

00:33:23.720 and in

00:33:24.220 UAE

00:33:24.640 and other

00:33:25.780 diplomats

00:33:26.300 and ambassadors

00:33:26.780 and security

00:33:27.760 services

00:33:28.320 intelligence

00:33:28.740 services

00:33:29.220 and they

00:33:29.860 tell you

00:33:30.180 we are

00:33:30.840 worried

00:33:31.100 about

00:33:31.400 refugees

00:33:32.180 coming

00:33:32.600 across

00:33:32.900 the

00:33:33.060 water

00:33:33.360 like

00:33:34.300 what

00:33:34.440 happened

00:33:34.740 after

00:33:35.020 the

00:33:35.360 Iranian

00:33:35.700 revolution

00:33:36.140 in 1979

00:33:37.140 and

00:33:37.720 you know

00:33:39.120 we could have

00:33:39.860 a destabilizing

00:33:41.060 civil war

00:33:41.720 we have

00:33:42.140 ethnic

00:33:42.620 makeup

00:33:43.640 but I

00:33:44.140 disagreed

00:33:45.600 with them

00:33:45.920 in a sense

00:33:46.380 that look

00:33:46.900 civil wars

00:33:48.060 generally

00:33:48.420 in the Middle

00:33:49.080 East

00:33:49.280 happen

00:33:49.600 because of

00:33:50.520 external

00:33:52.000 pressures

00:33:52.860 are actually

00:33:54.080 pulling the

00:33:54.540 country

00:33:54.880 you know

00:33:55.500 in question

00:33:56.000 apart

00:33:56.360 but in

00:33:57.240 this case

00:33:57.780 there is

00:33:58.380 almost a

00:33:59.040 consensus

00:33:59.540 among

00:34:00.080 Iran's 0.89

00:34:00.700 neighbors

00:34:01.060 in Pakistan

00:34:02.160 Turkey

00:34:03.620 and the

00:34:05.160 Gulf states

00:34:05.760 that

00:34:06.800 you know

00:34:07.700 Iran

00:34:08.160 post

00:34:08.820 revolution

00:34:10.300 or post

00:34:10.880 regime

00:34:11.300 collapse

00:34:12.080 should remain

00:34:13.380 united

00:34:13.900 you know

00:34:15.240 they wanted

00:34:15.600 to be united

00:34:16.160 that's the first

00:34:16.640 thing

00:34:16.820 because a

00:34:17.240 divided one

00:34:17.840 will be

00:34:18.280 a catastrophe

00:34:18.880 for the

00:34:19.340 region

00:34:19.580 because of

00:34:20.580 ethnic

00:34:21.720 and sectarian

00:34:22.760 strife

00:34:23.260 will tear

00:34:24.120 the rest

00:34:24.520 of the region

00:34:24.920 apart

00:34:25.220 because of

00:34:25.720 it

00:34:25.800 just look

00:34:26.080 what happened

00:34:26.460 in Syria

00:34:26.840 we don't

00:34:27.180 want a

00:34:28.020 Syria

00:34:28.280 ten times

00:34:28.800 over

00:34:29.080 and yeah

00:34:31.340 but however

00:34:32.020 it was

00:34:34.180 inevitable

00:34:35.120 because of

00:34:36.020 the fact

00:34:37.360 that the

00:34:37.800 regime

00:34:38.300 built itself

00:34:39.280 over the

00:34:40.360 bureaucracy

00:34:40.700 of the

00:34:41.100 Shah 0.92

00:34:41.320 so it

00:34:42.640 built itself

00:34:43.260 layer after

00:34:43.860 layer

00:34:44.160 but then

00:34:44.540 these layers

00:34:45.120 were really

00:34:45.540 rotten

00:34:45.840 and they're

00:34:47.360 going to

00:34:47.540 collapse

00:34:47.780 at any

00:34:48.100 time

00:34:48.400 the reality

00:34:49.440 is the

00:34:49.780 fact that

00:34:50.300 the Iranian

00:34:51.260 society

00:34:51.820 if you want

00:34:52.640 to really

00:34:53.340 get a

00:34:53.960 simplified

00:34:54.640 I'm

00:34:55.280 simplifying

00:34:55.720 it here

00:34:56.120 if you

00:34:58.060 want to

00:34:58.340 simplify

00:34:58.660 the sentiment

00:35:00.300 25%

00:35:01.660 of the

00:35:02.260 Iranian

00:35:02.960 population

00:35:03.560 would gladly 0.99

00:35:05.260 kill 1.00

00:35:06.180 the regime 1.00

00:35:08.040 and the

00:35:08.480 ayatollahs 0.94

00:35:09.480 and 25%

00:35:11.020 of the

00:35:11.560 society

00:35:11.940 would gladly 0.99

00:35:12.680 kill 1.00

00:35:13.220 for 0.99

00:35:13.720 the regime

00:35:14.940 and the

00:35:15.200 ayatollahs 0.94

00:35:16.040 they are

00:35:16.540 the other

00:35:16.840 end of the

00:35:17.300 spectrum

00:35:17.600 the zealots

00:35:18.240 the fundamentalists

00:35:19.380 and then you

00:35:20.680 have the 50% 0.68

00:35:21.420 in the middle

00:35:21.900 who want to

00:35:22.360 live

00:35:22.600 they don't

00:35:23.200 want to

00:35:23.440 kill or 1.00

00:35:23.980 kill for 1.00

00:35:24.640 someone 1.00

00:35:24.960 or die

00:35:25.720 for someone

00:35:26.180 so they

00:35:27.820 are the

00:35:29.220 ones who

00:35:29.820 always

00:35:30.800 were looking

00:35:33.100 to live

00:35:33.520 and they

00:35:33.840 are trying

00:35:34.380 to

00:35:34.860 they are

00:35:35.340 pragmatists

00:35:35.920 one of the

00:35:36.260 things about

00:35:36.680 the Iranian

00:35:38.420 people

00:35:38.940 whether Persians

00:35:39.880 or Azeris

00:35:40.560 or Kurds 0.98

00:35:42.100 or Lourdes

00:35:42.920 or Arabs 0.96

00:35:43.500 or Balouche

00:35:45.460 they are

00:35:46.080 amazing

00:35:46.400 they are

00:35:46.840 actually

00:35:47.200 people who

00:35:47.620 are pragmatists

00:35:48.420 however

00:35:50.440 they want to

00:35:51.160 live

00:35:51.380 the problem

00:35:52.460 here is

00:35:52.960 that exactly

00:35:53.740 in this

00:35:54.580 you know

00:35:55.460 four letters

00:35:56.860 L-I-V-E 0.99

00:35:57.680 they want to

00:35:58.200 live

00:35:58.560 is where

00:36:00.300 the regime

00:36:01.520 was hit

00:36:02.280 you know

00:36:03.060 in a

00:36:03.840 Achilles heel

00:36:05.480 spot

00:36:06.260 in our

00:36:08.540 podcast

00:36:09.140 conflicted

00:36:09.700 like I mean

00:36:10.200 on 21st

00:36:10.800 October episode

00:36:11.540 I was talking

00:36:13.560 about the fact

00:36:14.040 that you know

00:36:15.040 since I was

00:36:15.540 a banker

00:36:15.920 once

00:36:16.340 you know

00:36:16.860 yeah I know

00:36:17.340 like you know

00:36:17.660 basically I was

00:36:18.440 you know

00:36:18.780 choosing one form

00:36:19.600 of terrorism

00:36:20.060 to another

00:36:21.000 into banking

00:36:21.680 but

00:36:22.020 but I was

00:36:24.060 a banker

00:36:24.400 once

00:36:24.720 I was the

00:36:25.280 head of the

00:36:25.740 financial intelligence

00:36:26.580 unit in the

00:36:27.260 Middle East

00:36:27.580 for one of the

00:36:28.100 global banks

00:36:28.620 and one of the

00:36:30.020 things I was

00:36:30.480 looking at

00:36:31.040 is stability

00:36:32.140 linked to

00:36:32.740 currency

00:36:33.220 fluctuation

00:36:35.220 and so I was

00:36:36.000 looking at the

00:36:36.540 fact that

00:36:36.980 on the eve

00:36:38.280 of the end

00:36:38.760 of the 12

00:36:39.240 days war

00:36:39.820 the Iranian

00:36:40.720 currency was

00:36:41.300 600,000

00:36:42.620 rials per

00:36:43.420 dollar

00:36:43.760 then of course

00:36:45.380 on 21st

00:36:46.340 October

00:36:46.660 with my

00:36:48.000 co-host

00:36:48.400 Thomas

00:36:48.780 we were

00:36:49.500 discussing

00:36:49.860 the fact

00:36:50.240 that the

00:36:50.840 currency

00:36:51.860 broke through

00:36:52.920 the 1

00:36:53.500 million

00:36:53.840 per dollar

00:36:55.020 I told him

00:36:56.340 that Thomas

00:36:56.980 I'm worried

00:36:57.380 because

00:36:57.840 if

00:36:59.120 if it

00:37:00.100 passes

00:37:00.720 and that's

00:37:02.100 all in that

00:37:02.600 episode of

00:37:03.180 21st

00:37:03.600 October

00:37:03.840 I said

00:37:04.200 if it

00:37:04.760 passes

00:37:05.240 1.3

00:37:06.820 million

00:37:07.800 per dollar

00:37:08.380 that's a

00:37:09.540 mass

00:37:10.280 protest

00:37:11.520 territory

00:37:12.280 and then

00:37:14.260 of course

00:37:14.860 28

00:37:16.520 January

00:37:17.120 sorry

00:37:18.920 28

00:37:19.440 December

00:37:19.820 of 2025

00:37:20.660 it passed

00:37:22.240 to 1.35

00:37:23.040 and this

00:37:23.700 is when

00:37:24.040 the

00:37:24.200 Bazaris 1.00

00:37:24.800 you know

00:37:25.460 the

00:37:25.800 trading

00:37:26.760 classes

00:37:27.760 the business

00:37:28.460 classes

00:37:28.880 I mean

00:37:29.520 they called

00:37:29.980 for the

00:37:30.500 strikes

00:37:31.260 and the

00:37:31.720 protests

00:37:32.220 because

00:37:33.080 that's it

00:37:34.580 this is now

00:37:35.260 incompetence

00:37:36.240 of the

00:37:37.700 regime

00:37:38.040 and

00:37:39.820 because

00:37:40.400 of the

00:37:41.200 perceived

00:37:41.760 incompetence

00:37:42.480 of the

00:37:42.700 regime

00:37:43.000 not even

00:37:43.500 perceived

00:37:43.820 it's real

00:37:44.200 they are

00:37:44.660 they are

00:37:45.180 a bunch 1.00

00:37:45.420 of incompetent 1.00

00:37:45.980 people

00:37:46.220 when it

00:37:46.460 comes to

00:37:46.780 managing

00:37:47.000 the economy

00:37:47.540 they actually

00:37:49.280 like invited

00:37:50.140 that on

00:37:50.880 themselves

00:37:51.600 by

00:37:52.800 not only

00:37:54.040 degrading

00:37:56.120 the living

00:37:56.600 standards

00:37:57.020 of the

00:37:57.480 people

00:37:57.820 but also

00:37:58.620 without

00:37:59.120 giving the

00:38:00.240 people

00:38:00.620 some light

00:38:01.560 at the

00:38:01.840 end of

00:38:02.140 the tunnel

00:38:02.520 that we

00:38:03.180 know what

00:38:03.740 we are

00:38:04.060 doing

00:38:04.400 and we

00:38:05.580 know how

00:38:06.000 to negotiate

00:38:06.520 with the

00:38:07.040 US to

00:38:07.580 lift the

00:38:08.040 sanctions

00:38:08.400 or to

00:38:08.880 ease

00:38:09.140 them

00:38:09.380 in order

00:38:10.160 to improve

00:38:11.340 the living

00:38:12.640 standards

00:38:13.120 no they

00:38:13.660 were just 0.95

00:38:14.420 arrogant 0.62

00:38:15.080 in their

00:38:16.020 belief that

00:38:16.540 the people

00:38:16.960 will follow

00:38:17.420 them no

00:38:17.780 matter what

00:38:18.260 even in

00:38:18.980 the darkness

00:38:19.520 of a tunnel

00:38:20.320 that has

00:38:20.820 no light

00:38:21.460 at the

00:38:21.700 end of

00:38:21.980 it

00:38:22.200 and that's

00:38:24.920 where things

00:38:25.820 went

00:38:26.180 too bad

00:38:27.300 now I said

00:38:27.900 that episode

00:38:28.400 also I said

00:38:29.000 if it reaches

00:38:29.540 1.6

00:38:30.280 million

00:38:31.060 that's a

00:38:31.840 civil war

00:38:32.260 territory

00:38:32.680 now it is

00:38:33.640 at the

00:38:33.860 moment

00:38:34.060 standing at

00:38:34.780 1.6

00:38:35.500 1.65

00:38:36.380 possibly 1.7

00:38:38.060 even

00:38:38.360 it means

00:38:39.340 that they

00:38:39.600 have

00:38:39.820 mishandled

00:38:40.500 the economy

00:38:41.060 completely

00:38:41.660 and that's

00:38:43.140 why we

00:38:43.740 need to

00:38:44.020 understand

00:38:44.560 that the

00:38:46.960 fact of the

00:38:48.060 matter is

00:38:48.400 that the

00:38:48.700 Iranian

00:38:49.080 people after

00:38:50.220 the 12 days

00:38:51.640 war ended

00:38:52.240 they woke up

00:38:53.600 on a reality

00:38:54.160 here is the

00:38:54.800 fact that the

00:38:55.360 regime since

00:38:56.360 2005 until

00:38:57.520 2025 these

00:38:58.580 20 years

00:38:59.220 they wasted

00:39:01.260 roughly

00:39:03.520 2 trillion

00:39:04.960 dollars

00:39:05.540 of lost

00:39:06.820 GDP

00:39:08.280 accumulated

00:39:09.540 GDP

00:39:10.080 losses

00:39:10.580 every year

00:39:11.320 30 billion

00:39:12.760 40 billion

00:39:13.380 60 billion

00:39:14.020 80 billion

00:39:14.520 every year

00:39:15.340 they were

00:39:15.660 losing these

00:39:16.260 figures due

00:39:16.820 to sanctions

00:39:17.500 over the

00:39:18.700 nuclear program

00:39:19.680 that hardly

00:39:20.220 cost about

00:39:20.980 20 or 30

00:39:21.840 billion dollars

00:39:22.460 and in

00:39:24.040 addition

00:39:24.340 they spent

00:39:25.300 during this

00:39:26.740 period

00:39:27.100 300

00:39:28.300 billion

00:39:29.200 dollars

00:39:29.700 on Hamas

00:39:30.960 on Hezbollah

00:39:31.640 on the

00:39:31.980 Houthis

00:39:32.480 on propping

00:39:33.160 Assad regime

00:39:33.860 on the

00:39:34.200 Syrian civil

00:39:34.740 war

00:39:35.040 2.3

00:39:36.340 trillion

00:39:36.860 dollars

00:39:37.380 to

00:39:38.260 money

00:39:39.320 savvy

00:39:39.840 Iranians 0.58

00:39:41.160 is so

00:39:42.200 much to

00:39:42.780 take

00:39:43.180 but they

00:39:44.400 were always

00:39:44.780 told

00:39:45.140 it's for

00:39:46.020 the pride

00:39:46.420 of the

00:39:46.680 nation

00:39:46.980 we're

00:39:47.500 going to

00:39:47.620 be a

00:39:47.900 nuclear

00:39:48.180 power

00:39:48.640 we're

00:39:49.040 going to

00:39:49.160 have

00:39:49.380 this

00:39:49.700 beautiful

00:39:50.680 kind of

00:39:51.500 like in

00:39:51.780 a mushroom

00:39:52.120 cloud

00:39:52.540 in a

00:39:53.020 test

00:39:53.320 of

00:39:53.640 nuclear

00:39:54.240 strength

00:39:54.700 in front

00:39:55.100 of

00:39:55.240 everyone

00:39:55.620 we flex

00:39:56.040 our

00:39:56.240 muscles

00:39:56.580 but then

00:39:57.620 it all

00:39:58.000 went up

00:39:58.580 in dust

00:39:58.980 when

00:39:59.280 you know

00:40:00.880 president

00:40:01.320 trump

00:40:01.700 authorized

00:40:02.400 the use

00:40:03.120 of the

00:40:03.440 GBU

00:40:03.960 57

00:40:04.500 bunker

00:40:05.760 busters

00:40:06.140 and these

00:40:07.120 bunker

00:40:07.440 busters

00:40:07.780 did not

00:40:08.880 only

00:40:09.160 just

00:40:09.400 penetrate

00:40:09.880 deep

00:40:10.600 into the

00:40:11.020 mountain

00:40:11.360 and

00:40:11.880 collapsed

00:40:12.240 over

00:40:12.620 their

00:40:13.000 hopes

00:40:16.620 and

00:40:16.820 ambitions

00:40:17.180 and

00:40:17.500 they

00:40:17.640 realized

00:40:18.040 we are

00:40:18.780 led

00:40:19.000 by 0.93

00:40:19.220 donkeys

00:40:19.640 and 1.00

00:40:19.880 idiots 1.00

00:40:20.260 and as 1.00

00:40:21.380 a result

00:40:21.800 we lost

00:40:22.680 everything

00:40:23.120 so

00:40:23.820 it's

00:40:24.480 like

00:40:24.860 the

00:40:25.400 children

00:40:26.520 who

00:40:27.040 saw

00:40:27.400 their

00:40:27.860 compulsive

00:40:30.420 drunken

00:40:32.180 gambling 1.00

00:40:32.900 father

00:40:34.000 in a

00:40:34.700 Vegas

00:40:34.960 casino

00:40:35.480 wasting

00:40:36.380 their

00:40:36.640 entire

00:40:37.020 family

00:40:37.400 silver

00:40:37.800 on

00:40:38.420 a

00:40:38.800 hope

00:40:39.500 and a

00:40:40.180 prayer

00:40:40.520 and a

00:40:41.860 prophecy

00:40:42.260 that

00:40:42.760 one day

00:40:43.260 they will

00:40:43.560 win the

00:40:43.900 jackpot

00:40:44.360 only to

00:40:46.940 become 1.00

00:40:47.240 jackass 1.00

00:40:47.840 unfortunately 0.99

00:40:48.900 so

00:40:49.920 and that's

00:40:50.540 why they

00:40:50.740 were angry

00:40:51.140 and they

00:40:51.440 went out

00:40:51.740 to the

00:40:51.960 streets

00:40:52.260 look

00:40:53.840 Eamon

00:40:54.200 I quite

00:40:54.920 agree with

00:40:55.480 you on

00:40:55.780 this

00:40:55.960 but I

00:40:56.360 think

00:40:56.580 one part

00:40:57.060 of the

00:40:57.260 puzzle

00:40:57.480 that we

00:40:57.800 haven't

00:40:58.060 addressed

00:40:58.420 yet

00:40:58.700 is the

00:40:59.260 Islamic

00:41:00.260 Republican

00:41:00.820 Guard

00:41:01.320 and

00:41:02.460 because you

00:41:03.480 look at

00:41:03.960 them

00:41:04.220 and you

00:41:05.000 think to

00:41:05.360 them

00:41:05.500 and you

00:41:05.960 look at

00:41:06.320 the number

00:41:06.980 of people

00:41:07.680 that they've

00:41:08.160 got in

00:41:08.780 that army

00:41:09.320 anywhere from

00:41:10.240 150 to

00:41:11.180 200,000

00:41:12.080 people

00:41:12.480 you've also

00:41:12.900 got the

00:41:13.240 secret police

00:41:14.060 the regular

00:41:14.980 police

00:41:15.440 I mean

00:41:16.120 this is going

00:41:16.760 to take

00:41:17.280 one hell of

00:41:18.000 an effort

00:41:18.340 to try

00:41:18.960 and defeat

00:41:19.540 these people 0.52

00:41:20.220 surely

00:41:20.600 it's 265,000

00:41:23.260 you know

00:41:24.040 if we

00:41:24.620 look at

00:41:25.440 the entirety

00:41:25.980 of their

00:41:26.560 force

00:41:26.920 because

00:41:28.860 remember

00:41:29.520 the IRGC

00:41:30.680 is multiple

00:41:31.320 factions

00:41:31.780 it's not

00:41:32.380 only one

00:41:32.800 faction

00:41:33.160 but I

00:41:34.100 always

00:41:34.420 simplify

00:41:34.880 it

00:41:35.260 by

00:41:36.180 the

00:41:37.400 economy

00:41:38.260 faction

00:41:38.760 the money

00:41:40.020 faction

00:41:40.360 and the

00:41:41.640 real

00:41:42.080 zealot 0.99

00:41:42.500 faction

00:41:42.920 the reality

00:41:45.240 is that

00:41:45.820 the IRGC

00:41:46.800 controls

00:41:47.400 40

00:41:48.160 and up

00:41:48.620 to 45%

00:41:49.480 of the

00:41:49.860 entire

00:41:50.240 economy

00:41:50.700 thanks to

00:41:51.240 the

00:41:51.380 sanctions

00:41:51.780 and thanks

00:41:52.740 to the

00:41:53.000 way

00:41:53.200 they

00:41:53.400 created

00:41:53.860 these

00:41:54.860 companies

00:41:55.560 I mean

00:41:55.960 I used

00:41:56.320 to be

00:41:56.700 a financial

00:41:57.240 investigator

00:41:57.860 like

00:41:58.120 you know

00:41:58.340 I mean

00:41:58.580 counterterrorism

00:41:59.440 finance

00:41:59.780 and so

00:42:00.060 I used

00:42:00.400 to see

00:42:00.860 you know

00:42:01.560 a lot

00:42:01.840 of their

00:42:02.100 companies

00:42:02.600 looking at

00:42:06.700 their

00:42:06.940 infiltration

00:42:07.980 into

00:42:08.480 more than

00:42:09.440 100

00:42:09.760 sectors

00:42:10.340 from

00:42:10.640 telecommunications

00:42:11.780 you know

00:42:13.000 the medical

00:42:14.200 sector

00:42:14.580 pharmaceuticals

00:42:15.700 export

00:42:16.180 import

00:42:16.700 construction

00:42:17.740 and of course

00:42:19.720 above everything

00:42:20.640 else

00:42:20.980 you know

00:42:22.200 the energy

00:42:22.900 sector

00:42:23.300 gas

00:42:23.720 and petrochemicals

00:42:24.960 and oil

00:42:25.660 and when you

00:42:26.600 look at

00:42:26.980 everything they

00:42:27.960 do

00:42:28.220 like I mean

00:42:28.980 it was about

00:42:29.780 enriching the IRGC

00:42:31.000 to become a very

00:42:32.020 powerful benefactor

00:42:33.980 of all of the

00:42:34.780 proxies they have

00:42:35.720 across the region

00:42:36.920 under the umbrella

00:42:38.060 of the Quds

00:42:38.720 force which is

00:42:39.600 a part of the IRGC

00:42:40.980 responsible for

00:42:41.760 their external

00:42:42.500 armies

00:42:44.280 the armies

00:42:45.260 as a whole

00:42:45.760 Hezbollah

00:42:46.440 Houthis

00:42:46.840 and the Iraqi

00:42:47.240 militias

00:42:47.640 and Hamas

00:42:48.780 and all of that

00:42:49.240 like at some

00:42:49.880 point numbered

00:42:50.740 700,000 people

00:42:52.060 combined within

00:42:52.880 the entire

00:42:53.940 Middle East

00:42:54.580 under arms

00:42:55.600 outside of the

00:42:56.880 state control

00:42:57.580 like you know

00:42:57.960 that was scary

00:42:58.640 but then also

00:43:00.280 what is their

00:43:00.980 mission is

00:43:01.580 if you look at

00:43:02.360 the IRGC

00:43:02.980 the IRGC

00:43:03.600 doesn't stand

00:43:04.180 for the Iranian

00:43:05.040 Revolutionary Guard

00:43:06.160 Corps

00:43:06.400 it stands for

00:43:07.000 the Islamic

00:43:07.620 Revolutionary

00:43:08.280 Guard Corps

00:43:08.740 and their

00:43:10.920 entire

00:43:11.540 mission

00:43:12.440 is not only

00:43:13.560 just

00:43:13.820 because they

00:43:15.500 have fanatical

00:43:16.460 allegiance

00:43:17.560 to the

00:43:18.400 supreme leader

00:43:19.780 because remember

00:43:20.720 by the way

00:43:21.100 like you know

00:43:21.420 that the

00:43:22.200 article 5

00:43:24.740 of the

00:43:25.360 constitution

00:43:26.800 of the

00:43:27.160 Islamic Republic

00:43:27.860 which is weird

00:43:28.940 by the way

00:43:29.380 you will be surprised

00:43:31.240 like who the

00:43:31.820 head of the

00:43:32.180 state is

00:43:32.660 you know

00:43:33.180 the head

00:43:33.440 of the state

00:43:33.940 you would expect

00:43:34.860 will be either

00:43:35.440 the president

00:43:35.920 or the supreme

00:43:36.680 leader himself

00:43:37.260 but the reality

00:43:37.900 is that

00:43:38.380 neither of them

00:43:39.060 are the head

00:43:39.520 of the state

00:43:39.980 according to

00:43:40.880 the article 5

00:43:41.660 of the Iranian

00:43:42.820 constitution

00:43:43.360 the head

00:43:44.200 of the state

00:43:44.660 is actually

00:43:45.340 a

00:43:46.060 you know

00:43:46.900 a 5 year

00:43:48.820 old boy

00:43:49.260 who went

00:43:50.240 missing

00:43:50.580 1200 years

00:43:51.500 ago

00:43:51.880 you know

00:43:53.640 which is

00:43:54.060 the figure

00:43:54.480 of the

00:43:54.720 Imam Mahdi

00:43:55.240 and you know

00:43:57.700 and okay

00:43:58.300 of course

00:43:58.600 for me

00:43:59.000 you know

00:43:59.460 and for you

00:44:00.060 and for everyone

00:44:00.560 else

00:44:00.760 like you know

00:44:01.040 basically listening

00:44:01.600 like you know

00:44:01.960 that's a bit weird

00:44:02.540 but for them

00:44:03.140 it is faith

00:44:03.760 it's an article

00:44:04.380 of faith

00:44:04.840 you know

00:44:05.680 and you know

00:44:06.540 okay I respect

00:44:08.320 their you know

00:44:09.220 faith

00:44:09.860 but not to the extent

00:44:11.240 where it

00:44:12.340 you know

00:44:12.860 it becomes

00:44:13.380 that a disputed

00:44:14.460 figure

00:44:14.700 like you know

00:44:15.060 basically

00:44:15.360 you know

00:44:15.820 whether real

00:44:16.940 or mythical

00:44:17.400 you know

00:44:18.360 becomes the head

00:44:19.140 of a state

00:44:19.580 in a modern

00:44:20.280 nation state

00:44:21.320 in the 21st century

00:44:22.280 and that

00:44:24.000 who then becomes

00:44:25.700 the head of the state

00:44:26.340 on his behalf

00:44:27.180 will be

00:44:29.000 the jurist

00:44:29.800 the grand jurist

00:44:30.900 you know

00:44:31.380 the grand cleric

00:44:32.460 who would be

00:44:33.180 the steward

00:44:33.760 on his behalf

00:44:34.460 until his

00:44:35.660 much anticipated

00:44:37.200 return

00:44:37.640 and because

00:44:40.160 of that allegiance

00:44:41.260 that the IRGC

00:44:42.480 give to that

00:44:43.780 figure of the

00:44:44.780 supreme leader

00:44:45.360 the deputy

00:44:46.180 on behalf

00:44:47.220 of that

00:44:47.660 either mythical

00:44:48.760 or religious figure

00:44:49.560 depending on

00:44:50.140 where you sit

00:44:50.800 or you know

00:44:51.320 which side of the

00:44:52.020 fence you sit on

00:44:52.720 you end up

00:44:54.960 with a

00:44:55.620 fanatical zeal

00:44:57.200 the readiness

00:44:58.440 to kill 1.00

00:44:59.120 30,000 people 1.00

00:45:00.800 of your own

00:45:01.540 people

00:45:02.080 in two days

00:45:03.740 on the 8th

00:45:04.460 and 9th

00:45:04.820 of January

00:45:05.260 this year

00:45:05.740 to defend

00:45:06.720 that regime

00:45:07.960 because you do

00:45:08.640 believe that

00:45:09.240 it's a divinely

00:45:10.180 ordained

00:45:11.120 regime

00:45:12.560 you know

00:45:13.460 and that there

00:45:13.860 is a blueprint

00:45:14.420 that if this

00:45:15.740 regime survives

00:45:16.620 it's the regime

00:45:17.440 that would be

00:45:18.160 there to

00:45:19.380 give the

00:45:20.120 banner

00:45:21.620 and to

00:45:22.320 be the vessel

00:45:23.460 through which

00:45:24.020 the empire

00:45:24.880 of this

00:45:25.600 much awaited

00:45:26.680 messiah

00:45:27.080 will be established

00:45:27.980 and to

00:45:28.960 vanquish

00:45:29.840 all the other

00:45:30.500 you know

00:45:31.880 rivals

00:45:32.360 in the region

00:45:33.320 you know

00:45:34.600 with his divine

00:45:35.360 powers

00:45:35.860 I mean

00:45:36.720 I know

00:45:37.020 it sounds

00:45:37.520 foreign to you

00:45:38.360 foreign to me

00:45:38.920 but remember

00:45:39.400 when people

00:45:40.540 tell me

00:45:40.960 you know

00:45:41.540 oh

00:45:41.980 you know

00:45:43.140 they are rational

00:45:44.380 at the end of the day

00:45:45.500 I say no

00:45:46.100 they are pragmatists

00:45:47.220 sometimes

00:45:47.720 but they are never rational

00:45:49.060 and anyone who fall

00:45:50.740 into the

00:45:51.240 you know

00:45:51.740 illusion that they are rational

00:45:52.960 will hit the wall

00:45:54.500 just like Trump said

00:45:55.440 you know

00:45:56.200 I don't know

00:45:56.720 why they are not surrendering

00:45:57.680 I don't know

00:45:58.340 why they are not coming

00:45:59.140 for a deal

00:45:59.640 well because they are not rational

00:46:00.920 don't deal with them

00:46:01.680 as rational

00:46:02.160 that being the case

00:46:03.560 Richard

00:46:03.800 thank you for your patience

00:46:04.800 it strikes me

00:46:06.160 that Francis' question

00:46:07.280 was exactly right

00:46:09.700 but Eamon covered

00:46:10.660 the one side of it

00:46:11.660 I'd love you to cover

00:46:12.480 the American side of it

00:46:13.580 Francis said

00:46:14.180 this is an extraordinary gamble

00:46:16.160 and given what Eamon

00:46:17.880 has just described

00:46:18.740 about the dedication

00:46:20.100 the religious dimension

00:46:21.780 everything else

00:46:23.320 is President Trump

00:46:25.200 gambling his presidency

00:46:26.900 and his legacy

00:46:27.660 on this

00:46:28.240 and is this a big risk

00:46:29.960 to him

00:46:30.380 and to his entire administration

00:46:32.000 war is always a big risk

00:46:35.460 but sometimes

00:46:37.340 not going to war

00:46:38.340 is a bigger risk

00:46:39.480 I think that

00:46:41.540 Trump

00:46:42.700 chose a time

00:46:44.620 well before

00:46:46.540 the midterms

00:46:47.380 so he's got

00:46:48.080 off ramps

00:46:49.120 and options

00:46:49.900 so that this does not

00:46:51.760 dominate the headlines

00:46:52.720 in the critical voting

00:46:54.520 the view from Washington

00:46:56.460 is that there is

00:46:57.240 a three-seat majority

00:46:58.420 in the Republicans

00:46:59.160 and the House

00:46:59.600 Representatives

00:47:00.060 three elections

00:47:02.480 could turn control

00:47:03.700 of the House

00:47:04.160 if the House

00:47:05.720 is lost

00:47:06.280 to the Republicans

00:47:07.180 the next

00:47:08.420 the last half

00:47:09.260 of the Trump

00:47:09.860 administration

00:47:10.460 will be entirely

00:47:11.380 investigations

00:47:12.740 impeachments

00:47:14.340 paranoid claims

00:47:16.920 and justified claims

00:47:19.600 right

00:47:20.120 unfortunately

00:47:20.980 right

00:47:21.400 the administration

00:47:23.300 is staffed

00:47:23.800 with UN beings

00:47:24.300 and some of those

00:47:24.840 UN beings 0.73

00:47:25.240 are flawed

00:47:25.640 and so nothing

00:47:27.900 will happen

00:47:28.400 so

00:47:29.900 he

00:47:30.620 the president

00:47:31.660 needs foreign 0.98

00:47:32.560 policy victories

00:47:33.400 and most importantly

00:47:35.620 foreign policy

00:47:36.760 quiet

00:47:37.460 so that he can

00:47:39.760 focus on domestic

00:47:40.880 reforms

00:47:41.540 that would win

00:47:43.140 votes

00:47:43.560 because ultimately

00:47:45.020 there's never been

00:47:45.840 a case in American

00:47:46.540 history that I'm aware

00:47:47.380 of

00:47:47.740 including the Vietnam

00:47:49.620 War

00:47:49.900 that foreign 1.00

00:47:51.820 policy was the

00:47:52.660 number one

00:47:53.240 issue

00:47:53.780 for American

00:47:54.780 voters

00:47:55.180 so

00:47:57.260 that's one

00:47:58.980 piece of it

00:47:59.660 another is

00:48:01.240 that

00:48:01.920 I think the

00:48:03.800 president is aware

00:48:04.600 certainly his

00:48:05.180 advisors are

00:48:05.860 and I've talked

00:48:06.360 to those people

00:48:06.980 that what's called

00:48:08.840 Twelver Shia Islam 1.00

00:48:10.420 this particular sect

00:48:11.900 of Shia Islam

00:48:12.800 let's not point

00:48:13.760 paint with such

00:48:14.700 a broad brush

00:48:15.440 most Shia do not 1.00

00:48:17.860 share this perspective

00:48:19.640 but the

00:48:20.700 Ayatollah

00:48:21.260 Khomeini

00:48:21.860 absolutely did

00:48:23.300 and his followers

00:48:25.160 among the Houthis

00:48:26.360 in Yemen

00:48:26.880 absolutely do

00:48:28.160 and many aspects

00:48:29.500 of Hezbollah

00:48:30.920 many of the factions

00:48:32.060 of the Hezbollah

00:48:32.600 share this

00:48:33.140 what is important

00:48:34.180 about this

00:48:34.660 you've heard

00:48:35.120 I'm talking about

00:48:36.600 the missing

00:48:37.020 imam

00:48:37.380 they believe

00:48:39.100 that

00:48:39.840 in a kind

00:48:41.280 of messiah

00:48:41.840 Hamati

00:48:42.400 will return

00:48:43.820 in the form

00:48:44.720 of this

00:48:45.040 five-year-old boy

00:48:46.020 who disappeared

00:48:46.640 1,200 years ago

00:48:48.000 apparently down

00:48:48.920 a well

00:48:49.280 and that to

00:48:50.640 bring about

00:48:51.200 his return

00:48:51.760 you need

00:48:52.680 the end

00:48:52.960 of the world

00:48:53.420 so giving

00:48:55.040 these people

00:48:55.580 atomic weapons

00:48:56.520 means they

00:48:57.280 will want

00:48:57.680 to end

00:48:57.980 the world

00:48:58.360 for deeply

00:48:58.920 religious reasons

00:48:59.840 and see

00:49:02.060 themselves as

00:49:02.720 glorious

00:49:03.080 until that

00:49:04.140 final moment

00:49:04.860 kind of like

00:49:05.800 beneath the

00:49:06.280 planet of the

00:49:06.680 apes

00:49:06.920 in which

00:49:07.260 the whole

00:49:07.760 world

00:49:08.060 explodes

00:49:08.800 this

00:49:12.100 these are

00:49:13.680 the absolute 0.99

00:49:14.240 worst people

00:49:15.060 to have

00:49:15.740 atomic bombs 0.95

00:49:16.400 people who

00:49:17.020 actually want

00:49:17.940 to use

00:49:18.380 them

00:49:18.620 other more

00:49:20.900 normal countries

00:49:21.660 that have

00:49:21.980 atomic bombs

00:49:22.720 use them

00:49:24.160 in a different

00:49:24.600 way

00:49:24.900 they use

00:49:25.640 them by

00:49:26.040 threatening

00:49:26.420 to use

00:49:26.880 them

00:49:27.080 and therefore

00:49:27.500 never using

00:49:28.140 them

00:49:28.400 right

00:49:29.560 that is the

00:49:30.180 real power

00:49:30.740 of an

00:49:30.940 atomic bomb

00:49:31.460 we could

00:49:32.300 do this

00:49:32.880 so instead

00:49:34.140 make a deal

00:49:34.640 with us

00:49:35.080 that is why

00:49:36.500 for example

00:49:37.080 the west

00:49:37.700 has not

00:49:38.120 fully backed

00:49:38.800 Ukraine

00:49:39.540 in the

00:49:39.820 Biden years

00:49:40.340 they were

00:49:40.640 afraid of

00:49:41.180 Russia

00:49:42.220 launching

00:49:42.700 atomic

00:49:43.340 attacks

00:49:43.820 also the

00:49:45.580 Iranians 0.58

00:49:46.080 have studied

00:49:46.640 the Libyans

00:49:47.900 Ukrainians

00:49:48.840 and the

00:49:49.280 South Africans

00:49:49.960 those are

00:49:51.120 the only

00:49:51.460 three powers

00:49:52.220 that have

00:49:53.080 were declared

00:49:54.480 to have

00:49:54.800 and believably

00:49:56.860 had atomic

00:49:57.640 weapons

00:49:57.980 other nations

00:49:58.580 claimed to

00:49:59.020 have atomic

00:49:59.380 weapons

00:49:59.680 that didn't

00:50:00.340 right

00:50:00.960 but of those

00:50:01.660 that we

00:50:01.980 absolutely know

00:50:02.680 for certain

00:50:03.240 had atomic

00:50:03.820 weapons

00:50:04.180 and gave

00:50:05.320 them up

00:50:05.740 how did

00:50:07.020 the rulers

00:50:07.460 of those

00:50:07.860 countries

00:50:08.260 turn out

00:50:08.840 from the

00:50:09.900 Iranian

00:50:10.120 perspective

00:50:10.660 the white

00:50:12.700 South African

00:50:13.120 government

00:50:13.480 lost power

00:50:14.120 you could

00:50:16.780 argue that

00:50:17.080 was a good

00:50:17.440 outcome

00:50:17.760 or a bad

00:50:18.200 outcome

00:50:18.560 but that's

00:50:19.540 the result

00:50:20.060 the Libyans

00:50:22.020 gave up

00:50:22.520 their weapons

00:50:23.860 that they

00:50:24.180 seemed to

00:50:24.560 have

00:50:24.860 including

00:50:25.620 chemical

00:50:26.040 and biological

00:50:26.540 weapons

00:50:26.940 as well

00:50:27.340 and whereas

00:50:28.480 Qaddafi

00:50:28.920 now he

00:50:29.280 died an

00:50:29.600 ignominious

00:50:30.100 death

00:50:30.420 on the

00:50:30.700 side of

00:50:30.960 the road

00:50:31.280 and his

00:50:32.880 country was

00:50:33.300 beset by

00:50:33.820 civil war

00:50:34.320 and of

00:50:35.020 course we

00:50:35.300 know what

00:50:35.580 happened

00:50:35.840 in Ukraine

00:50:36.280 after its

00:50:37.260 1994

00:50:37.740 treaty

00:50:38.280 to give

00:50:38.940 up the

00:50:39.200 atomic

00:50:39.500 weapons

00:50:39.900 that the

00:50:40.220 Soviets 0.97

00:50:40.480 had left

00:50:40.800 behind

00:50:41.120 in that

00:50:41.440 country

00:50:41.760 so they

00:50:42.960 said

00:50:43.220 one we

00:50:43.800 need to

00:50:44.100 have

00:50:44.280 atomic

00:50:44.580 weapons

00:50:44.960 and two

00:50:46.020 we need

00:50:46.340 to never

00:50:46.640 give them

00:50:47.020 up

00:50:47.280 the North

00:50:49.180 Koreans 1.00

00:50:49.460 have learned

00:50:50.020 the same

00:50:50.680 lesson

00:50:51.060 about not

00:50:52.880 giving up

00:50:53.280 weapons

00:50:53.620 and they

00:50:54.500 will not

00:50:54.800 give up

00:50:55.120 easily

00:50:55.500 but they

00:50:57.960 do not

00:50:58.300 have a

00:50:58.640 religious

00:50:59.080 reason

00:50:59.660 to bring

00:51:00.300 about the

00:51:00.700 end of

00:51:00.940 the world

00:51:01.340 so if

00:51:03.080 you are

00:51:03.320 looking at

00:51:03.820 this so

00:51:04.480 what is

00:51:04.820 what is

00:51:05.380 Trump

00:51:05.740 playing

00:51:06.320 at

00:51:06.600 ending

00:51:07.840 a threat

00:51:08.700 to mankind

00:51:09.540 from a

00:51:11.760 regime that

00:51:12.400 has shown

00:51:12.840 great

00:51:13.540 willingness 0.99

00:51:13.940 to kill 1.00

00:51:15.400 millions of 1.00

00:51:16.360 its own

00:51:16.660 people if

00:51:17.140 we add

00:51:17.420 the Iran

00:51:17.980 and Iraq

00:51:18.340 war these 0.68

00:51:19.140 various

00:51:19.480 bombings the

00:51:20.660 starvation

00:51:21.260 that has

00:51:21.720 occurred in

00:51:22.320 many of

00:51:22.720 the more

00:51:22.960 distant

00:51:23.260 provinces

00:51:23.860 the malnourishment

00:51:26.040 that has

00:51:26.500 accrued in

00:51:27.400 others and

00:51:28.380 then the

00:51:28.720 massive terrorist

00:51:29.640 attacks

00:51:30.240 also

00:51:31.780 greatly

00:51:32.400 overlooked

00:51:33.000 is another

00:51:33.640 thing which

00:51:34.340 is Putin's

00:51:35.800 letter

00:51:37.160 following the

00:51:38.140 death of

00:51:38.860 Ayatollah

00:51:39.360 Khamenei

00:51:39.900 right

00:51:40.320 he called

00:51:42.860 it a cynical

00:51:43.500 murder by

00:51:44.180 the US

00:51:44.720 but read

00:51:46.320 the rest

00:51:46.740 of his

00:51:47.380 remarks

00:51:47.880 he clearly

00:51:49.200 saw Iran

00:51:50.340 as an

00:51:50.940 ally

00:51:51.320 Iran

00:51:53.260 wasn't always

00:51:54.140 the world's

00:51:54.600 largest sponsor

00:51:55.360 of terrorism

00:51:56.120 state sponsor

00:51:56.840 the USSR

00:51:58.180 was

00:51:58.880 terrorism is

00:52:00.400 not a 0.61

00:52:00.960 Muslim

00:52:01.300 invention

00:52:01.780 it is a

00:52:02.720 Russian

00:52:02.960 invention

00:52:03.380 it is the

00:52:04.520 Novemberists 0.92

00:52:05.480 of the

00:52:06.140 1830s

00:52:06.960 the anarchists

00:52:08.000 of the

00:52:08.260 1860s

00:52:09.080 in Russia

00:52:09.480 it becomes

00:52:10.620 a tool

00:52:11.000 of the

00:52:11.280 czar

00:52:11.520 in the

00:52:11.740 1890s

00:52:12.480 using the

00:52:13.260 Armenians

00:52:13.700 against the

00:52:14.220 Turks 0.99

00:52:14.520 which ultimately

00:52:15.700 led to the

00:52:16.360 genocide

00:52:16.880 carried out

00:52:18.280 by the

00:52:18.580 Turks 0.99

00:52:18.860 but the

00:52:19.660 Turks 0.99

00:52:19.860 had a

00:52:20.280 long line

00:52:20.760 of atrocities

00:52:21.400 against

00:52:21.720 themselves

00:52:22.160 to point

00:52:22.620 to

00:52:22.800 in

00:52:22.940 justification

00:52:23.400 I'm not

00:52:24.320 saying it

00:52:24.620 makes it

00:52:24.940 right

00:52:25.140 I'm just

00:52:25.580 describing the

00:52:26.200 history

00:52:26.500 and then

00:52:28.500 under the

00:52:29.420 Soviets 0.97

00:52:29.920 terrorism

00:52:30.820 becomes

00:52:31.580 a key

00:52:33.000 foreign

00:52:33.400 policy

00:52:33.860 tool

00:52:34.280 in the

00:52:35.120 Middle East

00:52:35.580 in Europe

00:52:36.560 look at

00:52:36.980 the

00:52:37.220 Red Army 0.62

00:52:38.220 faction

00:52:38.640 the

00:52:38.940 Beider-Meinhof

00:52:39.640 guys

00:52:40.100 look at

00:52:40.860 South

00:52:41.060 America

00:52:41.460 and look

00:52:43.060 at the

00:52:43.340 weathermen

00:52:43.740 in the

00:52:44.000 United

00:52:44.160 States

00:52:44.500 and others

00:52:44.900 right

00:52:45.140 they clearly

00:52:46.100 think they

00:52:46.780 can amplify

00:52:47.540 their power

00:52:48.380 through proxy

00:52:49.380 forces

00:52:49.980 and so

00:52:51.140 the

00:52:51.380 Iranians 0.58

00:52:52.020 fully

00:52:52.340 absorbed

00:52:52.760 these

00:52:53.020 Russian

00:52:53.320 lessons

00:52:53.760 and don't

00:52:54.840 forget

00:52:55.080 also

00:52:55.420 there were

00:52:55.740 300

00:52:56.180 until

00:52:56.520 recently

00:52:56.920 300

00:52:57.340 Russian

00:52:57.820 engineers

00:52:58.240 at

00:52:58.420 Bushair

00:52:58.840 working

00:52:59.700 on their

00:53:00.120 atomic

00:53:00.420 weapons

00:53:00.820 program

00:53:01.240 those are

00:53:01.660 the ones

00:53:01.940 we know

00:53:02.240 about

00:53:02.520 we also

00:53:03.920 know that

00:53:04.300 the

00:53:04.540 Iranians 0.58

00:53:05.120 manufactured

00:53:05.740 drones

00:53:06.280 for the

00:53:07.860 Russians

00:53:08.120 to use

00:53:08.480 in Ukraine

00:53:08.900 and elsewhere

00:53:09.560 so there

00:53:10.740 was

00:53:10.980 some of the

00:53:13.220 people who

00:53:13.620 do not

00:53:14.040 want a

00:53:14.720 regime

00:53:14.960 change

00:53:15.460 in Iran

00:53:17.180 are Russia 0.89

00:53:18.040 and China

00:53:18.600 because this

00:53:19.280 will put them

00:53:19.820 on their

00:53:20.300 back feet

00:53:20.860 now this

00:53:22.200 would be

00:53:22.620 if it is

00:53:23.460 accomplished

00:53:23.800 something that

00:53:25.000 Trump can

00:53:25.720 point to

00:53:26.080 as a

00:53:26.340 victory

00:53:26.620 this

00:53:27.720 massively

00:53:28.440 decreases

00:53:29.020 Russia

00:53:29.560 and to

00:53:30.400 its lesser

00:53:30.780 extent

00:53:31.140 China's 0.76

00:53:31.780 influence

00:53:32.580 in the

00:53:33.100 region

00:53:33.420 if a

00:53:34.740 non-sectarian

00:53:35.980 regime

00:53:36.740 takes over

00:53:37.560 even if it's

00:53:38.720 composed of

00:53:39.500 former military

00:53:40.440 elements

00:53:40.980 and is not

00:53:41.880 a democratic

00:53:42.560 dream

00:53:43.020 because also

00:53:44.680 bear in mind

00:53:45.300 Trump is

00:53:45.940 making a

00:53:46.380 distinction

00:53:46.800 which his

00:53:47.540 critics

00:53:47.860 simply don't

00:53:48.620 understand

00:53:49.080 the difference

00:53:50.640 in rebuilding

00:53:51.400 a regime

00:53:51.880 in America's

00:53:52.740 image

00:53:53.160 versus in

00:53:54.240 its interest

00:53:55.040 image means

00:53:56.720 it's a copy

00:53:57.920 of you know

00:53:59.820 Westminster

00:54:00.940 and Washington

00:54:01.920 you know there

00:54:02.780 are elections

00:54:03.480 and by elections

00:54:04.360 and neutral

00:54:05.000 counting of

00:54:05.580 votes and

00:54:06.080 independent

00:54:06.480 judiciary

00:54:07.080 and property

00:54:08.060 rights and

00:54:08.560 all these

00:54:09.000 wonderful

00:54:09.520 Anglo-Saxon

00:54:10.740 institutions

00:54:11.360 this is not

00:54:14.140 what they were

00:54:15.240 attempting to do

00:54:16.160 under the Bush

00:54:16.640 years in

00:54:17.600 Iraq but 0.93

00:54:18.820 it is

00:54:19.120 certainly

00:54:19.380 what the

00:54:19.680 critics

00:54:19.960 charge them

00:54:20.860 with

00:54:21.140 in fact

00:54:22.820 when I

00:54:23.660 talked to

00:54:24.360 Rumsfeld's

00:54:25.640 deputy

00:54:26.000 Paul told me

00:54:28.220 straight up

00:54:28.620 he said

00:54:28.980 our best

00:54:30.000 outcome for

00:54:30.720 Iraq

00:54:31.140 in 10-15

00:54:32.380 years

00:54:32.860 is

00:54:33.980 Romania

00:54:34.780 in 1995

00:54:35.580 so they

00:54:36.720 were much

00:54:37.080 more realistic

00:54:37.800 in their

00:54:38.160 planning

00:54:38.460 the neocons

00:54:39.240 that we've

00:54:40.000 been told

00:54:40.340 but the

00:54:40.720 image

00:54:41.120 regime change

00:54:42.200 is

00:54:42.640 carbon copy

00:54:44.040 of

00:54:44.580 Britain

00:54:45.420 and America

00:54:45.920 but that's

00:54:47.340 impossible

00:54:47.800 given the

00:54:48.500 people

00:54:48.880 and the

00:54:49.360 pressures

00:54:49.700 acting on

00:54:50.360 those

00:54:50.540 people

00:54:50.900 but

00:54:52.580 that's

00:54:53.240 America's

00:54:53.820 image

00:54:54.180 now let's

00:54:54.740 look at

00:54:55.080 its

00:54:55.380 interest

00:54:55.920 its

00:54:57.140 interest

00:54:57.600 is

00:54:58.360 much

00:54:58.920 simpler

00:54:59.340 an Iran 0.74

00:55:01.020 that is

00:55:01.600 not at war

00:55:02.200 with its

00:55:02.500 neighbors

00:55:02.800 through proxy

00:55:03.480 terrorist

00:55:03.880 forces

00:55:04.280 or directly

00:55:05.040 right

00:55:05.640 in any way

00:55:06.440 an Iran 0.74

00:55:07.780 that is

00:55:08.300 not

00:55:08.760 a

00:55:09.700 humanitarian

00:55:10.220 catastrophe

00:55:11.380 Iran

00:55:12.880 has

00:55:13.160 today

00:55:13.460 one of

00:55:13.740 the

00:55:13.920 highest

00:55:14.320 inflation

00:55:14.980 rates

00:55:15.340 in the

00:55:15.600 world

00:55:15.940 right

00:55:16.580 and

00:55:17.960 as

00:55:18.600 Amun

00:55:18.820 said

00:55:19.160 inflation

00:55:20.840 always

00:55:21.900 predicts

00:55:22.740 civil war

00:55:23.520 if it's

00:55:24.680 hyperinflation

00:55:25.360 so

00:55:26.940 we're not

00:55:29.320 going to see

00:55:29.700 boots on

00:55:30.120 the ground

00:55:30.580 in any

00:55:32.360 certainly

00:55:33.500 if it's

00:55:33.880 the Trump

00:55:34.260 administration

00:55:34.660 has its

00:55:35.060 way

00:55:35.280 but

00:55:36.940 somebody's

00:55:37.600 going to

00:55:37.760 have to

00:55:38.040 stabilize

00:55:38.360 the currency

00:55:39.080 and perhaps

00:55:39.660 dollarize

00:55:40.440 Iran

00:55:40.980 either

00:55:42.140 through a

00:55:42.520 currency

00:55:42.780 board

00:55:43.080 which is

00:55:43.400 unlikely

00:55:43.760 given how

00:55:44.260 rotten

00:55:44.540 institutions

00:55:44.980 are

00:55:45.520 probably

00:55:46.100 complete

00:55:46.600 dollarization

00:55:47.240 replacement

00:55:47.780 of the

00:55:48.320 currency

00:55:48.640 with the

00:55:49.140 US dollar

00:55:49.640 that's

00:55:52.800 easier in

00:55:53.260 Iran than 0.93

00:55:53.700 it sounds

00:55:54.200 because their

00:55:54.960 exports are

00:55:55.940 mostly they

00:55:56.540 receive dollars

00:55:57.200 for oil

00:55:57.680 and gas

00:55:58.180 and they

00:55:59.800 pay their

00:56:00.240 they import

00:56:01.180 electricity

00:56:01.640 from Turkey

00:56:02.360 and Azerbaijan

00:56:02.940 and they

00:56:03.460 pay for

00:56:03.800 those in

00:56:04.160 US dollars

00:56:04.800 so moving

00:56:07.200 and with

00:56:07.720 a nearly

00:56:08.760 worthless

00:56:09.340 currency now

00:56:10.300 and it

00:56:13.260 may well

00:56:13.740 be that

00:56:14.100 the Israelis

00:56:14.580 have been

00:56:14.940 helping by

00:56:15.700 counterfeiting

00:56:16.200 currency

00:56:16.680 inside Iraq

00:56:17.880 remember a

00:56:18.700 million Iraqis

00:56:19.660 go into

00:56:20.060 Iran every 1.00

00:56:20.620 day to go

00:56:20.960 to work

00:56:21.280 and then go

00:56:21.640 home at

00:56:22.000 night

00:56:22.200 so it's

00:56:23.400 very easy

00:56:23.900 to carry

00:56:24.420 counterfeited

00:56:25.000 currency into

00:56:26.260 that country

00:56:26.820 so but

00:56:30.100 their own

00:56:30.840 mismanagement

00:56:31.540 of the

00:56:32.040 currency

00:56:32.420 so stabilizing

00:56:34.860 the currency

00:56:35.380 and enabling

00:56:37.220 people to

00:56:37.880 have electric

00:56:39.140 power

00:56:39.560 food and

00:56:40.740 water

00:56:41.160 stability

00:56:42.680 and not a

00:56:43.740 threat to

00:56:44.020 their neighbors

00:56:44.460 that's which

00:56:45.320 that those are

00:56:45.920 the two things

00:56:46.480 you need to

00:56:46.940 maintain an

00:56:47.940 American interest

00:56:48.580 in the region

00:56:49.040 that doesn't

00:56:50.160 mean we that

00:56:50.780 there is a

00:56:51.320 democratic utopia

00:56:52.760 that doesn't

00:56:54.100 mean that all

00:56:55.240 the problems of

00:56:55.920 Iran are solved 1.00

00:56:56.920 as if by a

00:56:57.720 magic wand

00:56:58.240 it means

00:56:59.540 that Iran 0.91

00:57:00.640 is no

00:57:01.980 longer a

00:57:03.120 tiger devouring

00:57:04.340 its neighbors

00:57:05.020 it's a den

00:57:06.720 of wolves

00:57:07.320 who stay

00:57:08.000 in their den

00:57:08.960 of wolves

00:57:09.440 well that makes

00:57:10.980 a lot of sense

00:57:11.620 and you laid

00:57:12.140 that out

00:57:12.500 beautifully

00:57:12.920 but I think

00:57:13.640 my question

00:57:14.520 remains because

00:57:15.940 I guess what

00:57:16.980 you're describing

00:57:17.660 is you know

00:57:18.180 you take out

00:57:18.760 Darth Vader

00:57:19.420 and you install

00:57:20.360 his lieutenant

00:57:21.140 who's not as

00:57:22.080 not quite as

00:57:23.020 bad right

00:57:24.120 but Eamon's

00:57:25.220 point is well

00:57:25.880 the Islamic

00:57:27.400 Revolutionary

00:57:28.180 Guard Corps

00:57:28.680 these are

00:57:29.060 fanatics

00:57:29.740 and who is it

00:57:31.340 in a country

00:57:32.000 like Iran 1.00

00:57:32.720 where there's

00:57:33.340 200 something

00:57:34.280 of them

00:57:34.700 with guns

00:57:35.340 that is likely

00:57:36.460 to take over

00:57:37.240 once you take

00:57:38.000 out the top

00:57:38.580 leadership

00:57:38.920 it's probably

00:57:39.700 not going to

00:57:40.360 be you know

00:57:41.560 as you suggest

00:57:42.260 it's not going

00:57:42.840 to be some

00:57:43.320 liberal minded

00:57:45.160 person

00:57:45.660 so is it

00:57:47.300 actually realistic

00:57:48.420 even to have

00:57:50.740 what you are

00:57:51.340 describing

00:57:51.860 which is a

00:57:52.700 regime

00:57:53.180 that is in

00:57:54.140 America's interest

00:57:55.220 a la what

00:57:55.960 happened in

00:57:56.500 Venezuela

00:57:56.840 when you take

00:57:57.420 out the top

00:57:57.880 guy and you

00:57:58.220 replace them

00:57:58.720 with another

00:57:59.500 person of the

00:58:00.260 same ilk

00:58:00.720 who's just

00:58:01.200 going to be

00:58:01.720 much more

00:58:02.380 compliant and

00:58:03.120 much more

00:58:03.500 friendly

00:58:03.820 is that

00:58:04.160 actually

00:58:04.500 likely in

00:58:05.200 Iran

00:58:05.480 that's why

00:58:05.860 I'm asking

00:58:06.240 you if

00:58:06.500 Trump is

00:58:06.840 gambling

00:58:07.140 well all

00:58:09.480 wars gamble

00:58:10.180 but he is

00:58:11.240 absolutely

00:58:11.620 gambling

00:58:12.060 because

00:58:12.740 if you

00:58:14.520 leave it up

00:58:15.040 to the

00:58:15.300 Iranian

00:58:15.620 people to

00:58:16.320 decide

00:58:16.840 and

00:58:18.480 different

00:58:19.920 Arab and

00:58:20.980 non-Arab

00:58:21.600 outside groups

00:58:23.000 provide them

00:58:23.860 with arms

00:58:24.520 you're going to

00:58:25.720 have one of

00:58:26.660 several outcomes

00:58:27.400 either

00:58:29.020 either the

00:58:29.400 Mujahideen

00:58:29.880 al-Qaq 1.00

00:58:30.320 the M.E.K.

00:58:30.960 takes over

00:58:31.540 those are

00:58:33.860 people that

00:58:34.980 are that

00:58:35.960 the U.S.

00:58:36.400 can work

00:58:36.800 with but

00:58:38.040 it would be

00:58:38.920 a mistake

00:58:39.300 to call

00:58:39.720 them liberal

00:58:41.140 minded

00:58:41.440 humanitarians

00:58:42.540 they have

00:58:44.160 a severe

00:58:45.400 creed of

00:58:45.860 their own

00:58:46.220 there is a

00:58:48.500 smaller chance

00:58:49.200 that the

00:58:49.880 son of the

00:58:51.220 Shah can 1.00

00:58:51.740 take over

00:58:52.260 there are

00:58:53.920 ethnic groups

00:58:54.420 that may

00:58:54.880 want to

00:58:55.380 have control

00:58:56.260 over their

00:58:56.580 own regions

00:58:57.140 I think

00:58:58.820 the chance

00:58:59.300 of a

00:58:59.640 civil war

00:59:00.340 is very

00:59:01.040 high

00:59:01.460 unless

00:59:03.280 somebody

00:59:04.560 can establish

00:59:05.140 order

00:59:05.700 very quickly

00:59:07.500 and have

00:59:08.040 the loyalty

00:59:08.500 of the

00:59:08.920 military

00:59:09.240 to do

00:59:09.640 it

00:59:09.780 which is

00:59:10.300 less

00:59:11.360 ideological

00:59:11.960 than the

00:59:13.160 Islamic

00:59:13.460 Revolutionary

00:59:14.340 Guards

00:59:14.700 and

00:59:15.920 you know

00:59:16.840 the Israelis

00:59:17.300 are already

00:59:17.760 at the

00:59:18.300 decision

00:59:19.460 that you

00:59:20.640 just have 1.00

00:59:21.020 to kill 1.00

00:59:21.360 as many 1.00

00:59:21.700 of these

00:59:21.940 people

00:59:22.200 as possible

00:59:22.720 you can't

00:59:23.340 change

00:59:23.600 their minds

00:59:24.140 you have

00:59:24.960 to stop

00:59:25.320 their minds

00:59:25.780 the US

00:59:27.120 is not

00:59:27.480 there

00:59:27.740 and the

00:59:29.740 fact that

00:59:30.120 it's giving

00:59:30.540 a no-kill

00:59:31.060 list

00:59:31.440 which I

00:59:32.700 don't think

00:59:33.020 is publicly

00:59:33.440 known

00:59:33.800 indicates

00:59:35.660 that the

00:59:37.140 US has a

00:59:37.700 very different

00:59:38.200 view

00:59:38.460 they would

00:59:39.260 like this

00:59:39.640 to be over

00:59:40.160 as soon

00:59:40.500 as possible

00:59:41.100 a four-week

00:59:43.240 campaign is

00:59:43.920 what the

00:59:44.300 Israelis were 1.00

00:59:44.800 able to

00:59:45.040 get out

00:59:45.320 of them

00:59:45.560 but if

00:59:47.700 there was

00:59:48.740 a shorter

00:59:49.820 campaign

00:59:50.320 option

00:59:50.780 I'm sure

00:59:51.880 Trump

00:59:52.540 would take

00:59:52.920 that

00:59:53.180 the threat

00:59:55.120 needs to be

00:59:55.720 neutralized

00:59:56.400 not utopia

00:59:57.420 created

00:59:57.940 and Eamon

01:00:00.340 do you think

01:00:01.160 a four-week

01:00:01.780 campaign

01:00:02.400 maximum

01:00:02.980 is realistic

01:00:03.940 because to

01:00:04.880 my

01:00:05.160 completely

01:00:06.400 untrained

01:00:07.160 eye

01:00:07.480 I think

01:00:08.000 this could

01:00:08.920 potentially

01:00:09.620 last for

01:00:10.300 years

01:00:10.780 look

01:00:12.940 there is

01:00:14.260 no way

01:00:14.840 I mean

01:00:15.700 absolutely

01:00:16.080 no way

01:00:16.680 of

01:00:17.760 having

01:00:19.060 a

01:00:19.760 more

01:00:20.940 pragmatic

01:00:21.480 leader

01:00:22.020 in Iran

01:00:23.620 without

01:00:24.040 getting rid

01:00:24.700 of the

01:00:24.920 IRGC

01:00:25.480 because the

01:00:26.440 IRGC

01:00:26.980 call all

01:00:27.360 the shots

01:00:27.760 in terms

01:00:29.080 of

01:00:29.400 military

01:00:30.100 ideology

01:00:30.720 they are

01:00:31.980 the elite

01:00:32.560 fighting

01:00:33.120 corps

01:00:33.480 it's like

01:00:33.900 saying

01:00:34.260 basically

01:00:34.820 that

01:00:35.200 I'm going

01:00:36.080 to install

01:00:36.940 a Roman

01:00:37.420 emperor

01:00:37.880 but

01:00:38.200 against

01:00:39.160 the will

01:00:39.640 of the

01:00:39.880 Praetorian

01:00:40.260 Guard

01:00:40.640 good luck

01:00:41.100 with that

01:00:41.460 without the

01:00:43.980 help of the

01:00:45.220 Praetorian

01:00:45.700 Guard

01:00:46.000 without their

01:00:46.420 agreement

01:00:46.840 there would

01:00:47.840 be no

01:00:48.100 emperor

01:00:48.880 sorry to

01:00:50.800 interrupt you

01:00:51.360 and you're

01:00:51.660 the expert

01:00:52.040 here but

01:00:52.380 I think

01:00:52.820 even that

01:00:53.500 does a

01:00:54.060 disservice

01:00:54.620 to what

01:00:55.240 we're

01:00:55.400 actually

01:00:55.620 talking

01:00:55.940 about

01:00:56.180 because

01:00:56.520 the

01:00:57.000 Praetorian

01:00:57.400 Guard

01:00:57.760 on many

01:00:58.400 occasions

01:00:58.860 murdered

01:00:59.220 the emperor 0.66

01:00:59.800 and installed

01:01:00.720 the one

01:01:01.080 that they

01:01:01.440 preferred

01:01:01.900 but what

01:01:02.740 you're

01:01:03.000 talking

01:01:03.340 about

01:01:03.660 is

01:01:03.840 a religious

01:01:04.240 fanaticism

01:01:05.240 on

01:01:10.560 top

01:01:10.940 of

01:01:11.100 that

01:01:11.420 which

01:01:11.940 I

01:01:12.140 think

01:01:12.420 is

01:01:12.640 much

01:01:13.060 harder

01:01:13.400 still

01:01:13.820 surely

01:01:14.280 exactly

01:01:15.380 and that's

01:01:15.760 why I'm

01:01:16.040 saying

01:01:16.320 that

01:01:16.620 the reason

01:01:17.600 why

01:01:17.980 we have

01:01:18.780 now

01:01:19.140 four people

01:01:19.840 controlling

01:01:20.280 Iran

01:01:20.520 at the

01:01:20.780 moment

01:01:21.080 you know

01:01:21.860 you have

01:01:22.200 the head

01:01:22.480 of the

01:01:22.680 judiciary

01:01:22.940 who is

01:01:23.560 bloodthirsty

01:01:24.560 in a nasty 0.81

01:01:25.500 person

01:01:26.020 who handed

01:01:26.620 you know

01:01:27.480 thousands

01:01:27.820 if not

01:01:28.240 even tens

01:01:28.680 of thousands

01:01:29.120 of test

01:01:29.600 sentences

01:01:29.940 in his

01:01:30.580 entire

01:01:30.920 career

01:01:31.280 then you

01:01:32.140 have

01:01:32.560 Ayatollah

01:01:33.340 Arafi

01:01:33.860 who is

01:01:34.700 an extremely

01:01:35.620 hardline

01:01:36.920 jurist

01:01:37.560 and he

01:01:37.860 is now

01:01:38.260 the

01:01:38.500 spare

01:01:38.960 Ayatollah

01:01:40.140 if you

01:01:40.340 can call

01:01:40.620 him

01:01:40.780 then you

01:01:41.080 have

01:01:41.400 the

01:01:41.960 extremely 0.97

01:01:42.480 useless 1.00

01:01:43.160 President 0.99

01:01:44.560 Pazashkian

01:01:45.180 and then

01:01:46.060 you have

01:01:46.440 of course

01:01:47.000 the

01:01:47.980 you know

01:01:48.700 the wily

01:01:49.400 that fox

01:01:50.900 Ali

01:01:52.080 Larjani

01:01:52.680 who is

01:01:53.540 a man

01:01:53.780 of all

01:01:54.060 seasons

01:01:54.500 the Thomas

01:01:56.480 Cromwell

01:01:56.940 of

01:01:57.220 Iran

01:01:59.240 and these

01:02:00.560 four people

01:02:01.080 are now

01:02:01.480 controlling

01:02:01.900 Iran

01:02:02.160 like

01:02:02.340 first of

01:02:02.840 all

01:02:03.020 Ali Larjani

01:02:03.740 as the

01:02:04.120 head

01:02:04.300 of the

01:02:04.720 National

01:02:05.280 Security

01:02:05.640 Council

01:02:05.980 but the

01:02:06.320 other

01:02:06.540 three

01:02:06.880 the

01:02:07.380 president

01:02:07.840 Ayatollah

01:02:08.620 Arafi

01:02:09.060 who is

01:02:09.320 the

01:02:09.460 spare

01:02:09.680 Ayatollah

01:02:10.520 and the

01:02:11.520 head of

01:02:11.800 the judiciary

01:02:12.180 these

01:02:13.280 are forming

01:02:13.960 the three

01:02:14.360 member

01:02:14.840 interim

01:02:16.440 leadership

01:02:16.840 council

01:02:17.340 until a

01:02:17.920 new

01:02:18.100 Ayatollah

01:02:18.520 is confirmed

01:02:19.100 and the

01:02:20.140 indications

01:02:21.140 at the

01:02:21.500 moment

01:02:21.720 that maybe

01:02:22.180 even

01:02:22.560 they will

01:02:22.880 confirm

01:02:23.420 Ayatollah

01:02:24.460 Arafi

01:02:24.960 as

01:02:25.840 the current

01:02:26.860 leader

01:02:27.160 why

01:02:27.500 as a

01:02:28.520 permanent

01:02:28.780 supreme

01:02:29.100 leader

01:02:29.340 because

01:02:29.660 he is

01:02:30.400 the

01:02:31.100 IRGC

01:02:31.980 top pick

01:02:32.540 and the

01:02:34.200 IRGC

01:02:34.980 as long

01:02:35.720 as they

01:02:36.000 call the

01:02:36.320 shots in

01:02:36.680 Iran

01:02:36.920 there will

01:02:37.280 be no

01:02:37.640 reformist

01:02:38.240 there will

01:02:38.840 be no

01:02:39.160 someone

01:02:39.500 you know

01:02:40.060 who will

01:02:41.080 act in

01:02:42.280 America's

01:02:42.840 interest

01:02:43.280 I'm afraid

01:02:43.900 and so

01:02:45.760 anyone who

01:02:46.540 comes and

01:02:47.100 try even to

01:02:47.920 act in

01:02:48.400 America's

01:02:48.840 interest

01:02:49.140 he will be 1.00

01:02:49.560 murdered 0.98

01:02:49.860 before even 0.96

01:02:51.660 they take

01:02:52.140 office

01:02:52.960 office

01:02:53.120 that's why

01:02:53.940 we have

01:02:54.300 to

01:02:54.440 understand

01:02:54.840 that

01:02:55.060 without

01:02:55.600 dismantling

01:02:57.080 you know

01:02:58.020 absolutely

01:02:59.000 dismantling

01:02:59.940 uprooting

01:03:00.740 you know

01:03:01.500 the IRGC

01:03:02.380 as an

01:03:04.360 institution

01:03:04.940 and as

01:03:07.220 a fighting

01:03:07.660 force

01:03:08.080 from Iran

01:03:08.740 there is no

01:03:09.720 hope for the

01:03:10.180 future

01:03:10.460 it is a

01:03:11.500 state within

01:03:11.960 a state

01:03:12.420 it is a

01:03:13.340 cancerous

01:03:13.900 tumour

01:03:14.180 inside

01:03:14.540 Iran

01:03:14.860 and you

01:03:16.300 know

01:03:16.420 without

01:03:16.820 taking it

01:03:17.440 down

01:03:17.740 there is

01:03:18.420 no future

01:03:19.060 for that

01:03:19.760 country

01:03:20.160 and so

01:03:22.660 how do

01:03:23.620 you

01:03:23.760 for instance

01:03:24.420 Richard you

01:03:25.280 look like you

01:03:25.800 wanted to

01:03:26.180 weigh in

01:03:26.420 feel free

01:03:26.880 if you

01:03:27.260 did

01:03:27.500 yeah a

01:03:28.700 couple of

01:03:29.040 things

01:03:29.260 one is

01:03:29.820 the regime

01:03:30.480 is humanitarian

01:03:31.360 catastrophe

01:03:32.000 for its own

01:03:32.900 people

01:03:33.260 but those

01:03:34.620 people are

01:03:35.240 largely

01:03:35.680 because they're

01:03:37.160 Iranians 0.58

01:03:37.740 and they are

01:03:38.240 very Iranian 0.85

01:03:39.000 and they're

01:03:39.380 Iranian-ness 0.96

01:03:40.100 riven into

01:03:41.840 factions

01:03:42.260 and hard

01:03:44.120 to unite

01:03:44.640 and they're

01:03:45.580 unarmed

01:03:45.940 for the most

01:03:46.460 part

01:03:46.760 so

01:03:49.060 who is

01:03:50.640 on that

01:03:50.960 no-kill 0.99

01:03:51.400 list

01:03:51.680 is the

01:03:52.020 question

01:03:52.340 the White

01:03:52.700 House

01:03:52.980 press corps

01:03:53.740 should be

01:03:54.140 asking

01:03:54.460 I suspect

01:03:56.480 Larajani

01:03:57.000 is on that

01:03:57.560 list

01:03:57.880 that the

01:03:58.360 CIA would

01:03:58.840 like to

01:03:59.160 work with

01:03:59.500 him

01:03:59.580 yeah

01:03:59.780 yes

01:04:00.560 that will

01:04:02.300 not lead

01:04:02.920 to

01:04:03.300 it might

01:04:04.420 lead to

01:04:04.860 a

01:04:05.200 more

01:04:06.540 tempered

01:04:07.080 regime

01:04:07.500 but it

01:04:08.040 will not

01:04:08.420 lead to

01:04:08.920 the regime

01:04:09.420 that all

01:04:09.900 of the

01:04:10.120 democratic

01:04:10.500 performers

01:04:11.040 are dreaming

01:04:11.480 about

01:04:11.860 he might

01:04:13.040 weaken

01:04:13.660 the

01:04:14.860 dress

01:04:15.600 requirements

01:04:16.140 for women

01:04:16.640 which are

01:04:17.400 massively

01:04:18.000 unpopular

01:04:18.680 as a

01:04:19.720 great

01:04:19.940 video

01:04:20.280 out of

01:04:20.820 a morality

01:04:21.740 policewoman

01:04:22.440 being forced

01:04:23.020 off a train

01:04:23.580 in Tehran

01:04:24.160 a couple

01:04:25.060 days ago

01:04:25.560 by a

01:04:26.080 crowd of

01:04:26.480 women 1.00

01:04:26.720 some of

01:04:27.140 whom

01:04:27.280 had

01:04:27.480 completely

01:04:27.960 uncovered

01:04:28.360 hair

01:04:28.720 so

01:04:30.800 among

01:04:31.760 the

01:04:32.980 educated

01:04:33.700 of which

01:04:34.080 there are

01:04:34.460 a lot

01:04:34.840 in Tehran

01:04:35.500 a great

01:04:36.740 hatred

01:04:37.640 of these

01:04:38.180 so-called

01:04:38.980 Islamic

01:04:39.340 rules

01:04:39.780 which are

01:04:40.920 not in

01:04:41.440 the Quran

01:04:41.940 by the

01:04:42.380 way

01:04:42.620 right

01:04:42.980 these are

01:04:43.440 the

01:04:43.620 interpretations

01:04:44.260 of Ayatollahs 0.67

01:04:45.080 over the

01:04:45.360 years

01:04:45.620 so he

01:04:46.620 may do

01:04:46.940 some things

01:04:47.380 there

01:04:47.660 he's

01:04:47.920 certainly

01:04:48.120 going to

01:04:48.340 have to

01:04:48.540 do some

01:04:48.840 economic

01:04:49.160 reforms

01:04:49.660 and

01:04:51.860 when he's

01:04:53.560 pressed to

01:04:54.240 undo the

01:04:55.620 ties to

01:04:56.160 various terror

01:04:56.780 groups

01:04:57.120 is unlikely

01:04:58.400 to comply

01:04:59.240 because that's

01:05:00.500 the only

01:05:01.080 counter weapon

01:05:01.840 he has

01:05:02.520 also

01:05:04.100 accelerating

01:05:04.780 this is

01:05:05.280 two things

01:05:05.700 which have

01:05:06.000 not come

01:05:06.440 up before

01:05:07.160 one is

01:05:08.460 current

01:05:09.240 experience

01:05:09.760 in America

01:05:10.280 and the

01:05:10.960 second is

01:05:11.400 American history

01:05:12.120 quick American

01:05:13.000 history

01:05:13.400 in 1979

01:05:15.400 52

01:05:17.740 American

01:05:18.200 diplomats

01:05:18.840 were held

01:05:19.260 for 444

01:05:20.500 days

01:05:21.060 when I

01:05:22.840 asked a

01:05:23.280 senior

01:05:23.660 basically

01:05:24.660 the deputy

01:05:25.700 head of

01:05:26.020 the Iran

01:05:26.320 desk

01:05:26.600 in the

01:05:26.860 state

01:05:27.020 department

01:05:27.440 in the

01:05:28.480 Obama

01:05:28.740 years

01:05:29.060 whether

01:05:29.380 these

01:05:29.740 two

01:05:29.960 numbers

01:05:30.320 meant

01:05:30.620 anything

01:05:30.940 to him

01:05:31.440 52

01:05:32.400 and

01:05:33.080 444

01:05:33.980 he just

01:05:34.340 shook his head

01:05:34.740 like these

01:05:35.500 are random

01:05:35.820 numbers

01:05:36.180 I said

01:05:37.120 okay

01:05:37.420 how old

01:05:37.860 are you

01:05:38.140 and he

01:05:38.800 says 37

01:05:39.560 for everyone

01:05:40.480 over 45

01:05:41.280 these numbers

01:05:42.540 are in their

01:05:42.920 brain for

01:05:43.300 the rest

01:05:43.560 of their

01:05:43.780 lives

01:05:44.160 that is

01:05:44.960 how many

01:05:45.580 hostages

01:05:45.960 were held

01:05:46.380 for how

01:05:46.780 long

01:05:47.140 and the

01:05:47.920 national

01:05:48.360 dishonor

01:05:49.180 and there

01:05:49.460 was

01:05:49.640 Ted Koppel

01:05:50.960 on network

01:05:51.900 television

01:05:52.360 which had

01:05:52.740 a big

01:05:53.100 audience

01:05:53.440 in 1979

01:05:54.200 held

01:05:55.400 a special

01:05:56.280 every single

01:05:56.980 night

01:05:57.240 called

01:05:57.460 American

01:05:57.920 Hostage

01:05:58.500 America

01:05:59.180 Held

01:05:59.460 Hostage

01:05:59.960 and it

01:06:00.660 had the

01:06:01.380 number

01:06:01.720 of days

01:06:02.540 that this

01:06:03.260 has gone

01:06:03.600 on

01:06:03.880 and it

01:06:04.440 frequently

01:06:04.840 have

01:06:05.140 video

01:06:05.600 of

01:06:06.220 blindfolded

01:06:06.880 American

01:06:07.220 diplomats

01:06:07.740 and American

01:06:08.180 Marines

01:06:08.780 being

01:06:09.340 beaten

01:06:09.740 there

01:06:11.200 is an

01:06:11.540 almost

01:06:11.820 Roman

01:06:12.320 sense

01:06:12.840 of

01:06:13.020 American

01:06:13.440 honor

01:06:13.860 that

01:06:14.060 needs

01:06:14.300 to

01:06:14.440 be 0.58

01:06:14.620 slaked

01:06:15.020 so

01:06:16.040 anybody

01:06:16.980 over

01:06:17.640 45

01:06:18.160 or

01:06:18.420 over

01:06:18.680 50

01:06:19.040 who's

01:06:19.320 looking

01:06:19.520 at

01:06:19.640 the

01:06:19.720 Iran

01:06:19.900 situation

01:06:20.480 that

01:06:21.540 is

01:06:21.880 also

01:06:22.140 in

01:06:22.400 their

01:06:22.620 field

01:06:23.300 of

01:06:23.460 vision

01:06:23.740 they

01:06:24.140 remember

01:06:24.640 that

01:06:25.340 so

01:06:26.360 the

01:06:26.580 amount

01:06:26.960 of

01:06:27.200 sympathy

01:06:27.500 for

01:06:27.820 this

01:06:28.040 regime

01:06:28.540 among

01:06:29.880 those

01:06:30.280 who

01:06:30.500 are

01:06:30.680 over

01:06:31.120 45

01:06:31.540 in

01:06:31.960 America

01:06:32.340 is

01:06:33.380 a

01:06:34.240 negative

01:06:34.500 number

01:06:34.900 for the

01:06:35.820 most

01:06:35.960 part

01:06:36.240 right

01:06:36.660 unless

01:06:38.140 you're

01:06:38.520 highly

01:06:38.920 ideologically

01:06:40.560 motivated

01:06:41.140 even

01:06:42.340 then

01:06:42.660 right

01:06:42.980 the

01:06:43.180 dislike

01:06:43.960 of

01:06:44.580 this

01:06:44.740 regime

01:06:45.080 is

01:06:45.440 intense

01:06:46.080 so

01:06:47.940 American

01:06:48.400 history

01:06:49.960 also

01:06:50.560 influences

01:06:51.180 current

01:06:52.520 American

01:06:53.000 experience

01:06:53.640 so

01:06:54.880 we

01:06:55.340 had

01:06:55.680 a

01:06:56.260 stabbing 0.60

01:06:56.760 and 1.00

01:06:56.940 shooting

01:06:57.220 attack

01:06:57.720 on

01:06:58.140 the

01:06:58.280 Washington

01:06:58.980 D.C.

01:06:59.420 front way

01:06:59.880 which

01:07:00.940 appears

01:07:01.520 to be

01:07:01.940 linked

01:07:02.280 to

01:07:03.420 an

01:07:03.780 Islamic

01:07:04.100 militant

01:07:04.680 who

01:07:04.900 may

01:07:05.220 have

01:07:05.340 been

01:07:05.480 motivated

01:07:05.840 by

01:07:06.100 Iran

01:07:06.440 with

01:07:06.860 all

01:07:07.320 the

01:07:07.440 facts

01:07:07.680 have

01:07:07.800 not

01:07:07.940 come

01:07:08.100 out

01:07:08.340 and

01:07:09.180 then

01:07:09.300 we

01:07:09.460 had

01:07:09.800 an

01:07:10.360 attack

01:07:10.840 in

01:07:11.680 Austin

01:07:12.080 Texas

01:07:12.500 with

01:07:13.900 a

01:07:14.060 guy

01:07:14.380 wearing

01:07:15.160 a

01:07:15.340 shirt

01:07:15.500 that

01:07:15.740 says

01:07:15.960 property

01:07:16.400 of

01:07:16.600 Allah

01:07:17.020 and

01:07:17.880 underneath

01:07:18.180 that

01:07:18.540 shirt

01:07:18.840 an

01:07:19.220 Islamic

01:07:19.680 Iranian

01:07:21.000 Islamic

01:07:21.380 revolutionary

01:07:21.920 flag

01:07:22.420 and

01:07:24.660 we

01:07:24.980 have

01:07:25.160 the

01:07:25.280 FBI

01:07:25.600 admitting

01:07:26.060 that

01:07:27.280 there

01:07:27.480 are

01:07:27.660 some

01:07:28.000 700

01:07:28.980 Hezbollah

01:07:30.020 not

01:07:30.320 Iranian

01:07:30.820 just

01:07:31.380 Hezbollah 0.95

01:07:31.860 terrorist

01:07:32.360 cells

01:07:32.760 sleeper

01:07:34.060 cells

01:07:34.260 that are

01:07:34.580 believed

01:07:34.860 to be

01:07:35.140 in the

01:07:35.340 United

01:07:35.500 States

01:07:35.920 not

01:07:36.640 very

01:07:37.120 few

01:07:37.400 of

01:07:37.540 which

01:07:37.680 are

01:07:37.800 under

01:07:37.960 direct

01:07:38.280 surveillance

01:07:38.660 so

01:07:39.780 as

01:07:40.480 these

01:07:40.840 proxy

01:07:41.580 attacks

01:07:42.020 increase

01:07:42.720 in the

01:07:42.980 United

01:07:43.160 States

01:07:43.640 the

01:07:44.580 American

01:07:45.040 thirst

01:07:45.560 for

01:07:46.220 war

01:07:46.700 will

01:07:47.160 go

01:07:47.380 up

01:07:47.800 massively

01:07:48.940 and

01:07:50.480 so

01:07:50.760 this

01:07:51.620 will

01:07:51.760 become

01:07:52.060 a

01:07:52.220 majority

01:07:52.540 if

01:07:52.820 these

01:07:53.140 attacks

01:07:53.480 continue

01:07:53.980 and

01:07:54.460 Iran

01:07:54.860 is seen

01:07:55.220 as to

01:07:55.400 be

01:07:55.520 behind

01:07:55.780 them

01:07:56.020 the

01:07:56.780 ability

01:07:57.120 to end

01:07:57.440 the war

01:07:57.940 halfway

01:07:59.040 the way

01:07:59.540 the CIA

01:07:59.900 would like

01:08:00.240 to do

01:08:00.520 it

01:08:00.720 in three

01:08:01.720 or four

01:08:02.000 weeks

01:08:02.380 and have

01:08:03.040 their guy

01:08:03.640 Larajani

01:08:04.480 whoever their

01:08:05.000 nominee

01:08:05.320 is

01:08:05.800 run

01:08:06.520 things

01:08:06.980 that may

01:08:08.100 not be

01:08:08.440 politically

01:08:08.800 possible

01:08:09.320 if you're

01:08:10.620 killing 1.00

01:08:10.920 Americans 1.00

01:08:11.520 in America

01:08:12.500 the

01:08:14.740 political

01:08:15.780 calculus

01:08:16.280 will

01:08:16.680 instantly

01:08:17.300 change

01:08:17.900 and

01:08:19.880 since

01:08:21.020 the

01:08:21.240 Iranians 0.58

01:08:21.740 have

01:08:21.900 lost

01:08:22.220 centralized

01:08:22.660 control

01:08:23.300 both

01:08:23.880 of the

01:08:24.140 terror

01:08:24.380 networks

01:08:24.820 and

01:08:25.080 of their

01:08:25.320 military

01:08:25.680 units

01:08:26.200 this

01:08:27.240 might

01:08:27.460 not be

01:08:27.780 within

01:08:28.020 the

01:08:28.180 Iranians 0.58

01:08:28.580 control

01:08:29.000 either

01:08:29.540 in other

01:08:30.100 words

01:08:30.280 say

01:08:30.860 Larajani

01:08:31.460 or one

01:08:31.780 of his

01:08:32.020 ilk

01:08:32.220 is put

01:08:32.940 in power

01:08:33.380 he may

01:08:34.500 not be

01:08:34.880 able to

01:08:35.260 stop

01:08:35.580 them

01:08:35.760 any

01:08:35.960 longer

01:08:36.280 this

01:08:37.140 may

01:08:37.380 in fact

01:08:37.720 have

01:08:37.900 been

01:08:38.060 the

01:08:38.220 design

01:08:38.640 of the

01:08:39.340 Ayatollah

01:08:39.760 before

01:08:40.100 his

01:08:40.320 death

01:08:40.620 a

01:08:42.060 kind

01:08:42.220 of

01:08:42.340 dead

01:08:42.540 man

01:08:42.760 switch

01:08:43.100 to

01:08:43.380 prevent

01:08:43.620 peace

01:08:44.060 after

01:08:45.080 his

01:08:45.280 death

01:08:45.540 so

01:08:47.240 the

01:08:48.080 is it

01:08:49.080 a gamble

01:08:49.500 constant

01:08:50.160 it is

01:08:50.640 absolutely

01:08:51.140 a gamble

01:08:51.600 on

01:08:52.020 multiple

01:08:52.680 levels

01:08:53.600 but it

01:08:54.980 might have

01:08:55.340 been a

01:08:55.680 bigger

01:08:55.880 gamble

01:08:56.300 to do

01:08:56.840 nothing

01:08:57.100 yes

01:08:58.640 that being

01:09:01.180 the case

01:09:01.800 and we're

01:09:02.320 talking about

01:09:03.200 American

01:09:04.000 attitudes

01:09:04.700 to war

01:09:05.520 surely

01:09:06.940 when they

01:09:08.140 start seeing

01:09:08.860 servicemen

01:09:09.740 coming home

01:09:10.620 in coffins

01:09:11.300 that is

01:09:12.380 going to

01:09:12.880 affect

01:09:13.360 all of

01:09:14.360 America

01:09:14.760 but particularly

01:09:16.180 the MAGA

01:09:17.400 America

01:09:18.100 first element

01:09:19.020 of Trump's

01:09:20.020 base

01:09:20.340 which is

01:09:21.200 incredibly

01:09:22.000 large

01:09:22.420 part

01:09:23.440 of it

01:09:23.820 yes

01:09:25.180 but

01:09:25.580 this is

01:09:27.380 a very

01:09:28.080 popular

01:09:28.540 misunderstanding

01:09:29.200 even in

01:09:29.860 America

01:09:30.260 Americans

01:09:31.640 are not

01:09:33.560 turned off

01:09:34.500 by body

01:09:35.060 bags

01:09:35.480 they're

01:09:36.600 turned off

01:09:37.140 by people

01:09:37.740 dying

01:09:38.220 for no

01:09:38.980 reason

01:09:39.320 if there's

01:09:41.340 a clear

01:09:41.660 cause

01:09:42.280 that

01:09:43.260 the American

01:09:44.540 people think

01:09:45.180 is just

01:09:45.780 then

01:09:47.140 the World

01:09:48.900 War II

01:09:49.240 death tolls

01:09:49.860 did not

01:09:50.200 deter people

01:09:50.900 from

01:09:51.300 supporting

01:09:53.040 the efforts

01:09:53.540 against

01:09:53.840 Germany

01:09:54.160 and Japan

01:09:54.700 right

01:09:55.360 it's

01:09:57.800 where

01:09:58.100 these

01:09:59.160 political

01:10:00.740 goals

01:10:01.380 seem

01:10:02.740 hazy

01:10:03.220 and not

01:10:04.740 directly

01:10:05.440 tied to

01:10:05.880 U.S.

01:10:06.120 interest

01:10:06.500 if

01:10:08.000 there

01:10:08.300 are

01:10:08.480 more

01:10:08.740 terror

01:10:09.080 attacks

01:10:09.680 if

01:10:10.200 this

01:10:10.380 is

01:10:10.500 what

01:10:10.640 they

01:10:10.780 were

01:10:11.060 we

01:10:11.460 know

01:10:11.620 the

01:10:11.920 evidence

01:10:12.220 is still

01:10:12.740 emerging

01:10:13.360 these

01:10:15.140 could be

01:10:15.520 volunteer

01:10:15.920 efforts

01:10:16.360 by

01:10:16.760 random

01:10:17.600 lone

01:10:17.940 individuals

01:10:18.420 it is

01:10:18.760 possible

01:10:19.160 right

01:10:19.660 but

01:10:20.620 it is

01:10:21.220 more

01:10:21.880 likely

01:10:22.220 that

01:10:22.520 it is

01:10:22.780 organized

01:10:23.260 at some

01:10:24.080 level

01:10:24.380 by the

01:10:24.840 Iranians 0.58

01:10:25.320 if these

01:10:26.380 continue

01:10:27.020 then just

01:10:28.540 like Pearl

01:10:28.960 Harbor

01:10:29.300 just like

01:10:30.260 9-11

01:10:30.760 the

01:10:31.640 American

01:10:32.120 interest

01:10:32.800 in war

01:10:33.380 will go

01:10:34.160 up

01:10:34.620 massively

01:10:35.680 we

01:10:36.680 are

01:10:36.900 not

01:10:37.440 Europeans

01:10:38.220 we

01:10:39.220 do

01:10:39.400 not

01:10:39.820 tolerate

01:10:40.720 mayhem

01:10:42.100 caused

01:10:43.140 by foreign

01:10:43.640 actors

01:10:44.060 against

01:10:44.940 innocent

01:10:45.420 civilians

01:10:45.900 especially

01:10:47.140 women 1.00

01:10:47.500 and children

01:10:47.940 that is

01:10:48.960 simply

01:10:49.460 not

01:10:50.420 tolerated

01:10:51.060 by a

01:10:52.100 large

01:10:52.320 number

01:10:52.600 of

01:10:52.980 Americans

01:10:53.440 and so

01:10:54.600 Trump's

01:10:55.260 ability

01:10:55.660 to end

01:10:56.160 the war

01:10:56.580 his

01:10:56.900 faunted

01:10:57.780 off-ramp

01:10:58.440 may

01:10:59.420 politically

01:10:59.960 disappear

01:11:00.660 if the

01:11:01.900 terror

01:11:02.160 attacks

01:11:02.700 increase

01:11:03.860 in number

01:11:04.400 or in

01:11:05.040 lethality

01:11:05.560 that is

01:11:07.380 a much

01:11:07.880 bigger

01:11:08.420 gamble

01:11:08.940 and there

01:11:10.460 might be

01:11:10.900 political

01:11:11.300 risk

01:11:11.840 in stopping

01:11:12.600 the war

01:11:13.140 before

01:11:14.260 the American

01:11:15.220 people feel

01:11:16.000 that

01:11:16.800 security

01:11:17.660 and safety

01:11:18.320 has been

01:11:18.700 returned

01:11:19.140 and if

01:11:20.360 these terror

01:11:20.860 attacks

01:11:21.300 are

01:11:21.840 if they

01:11:22.380 are

01:11:22.520 directed

01:11:22.820 by Iran

01:11:23.300 and if

01:11:23.640 they

01:11:23.760 continue

01:11:25.180 two big

01:11:26.040 ifs

01:11:26.400 then

01:11:28.640 nothing

01:11:29.460 less

01:11:30.120 than

01:11:30.480 complete

01:11:31.120 eradication

01:11:31.960 of the

01:11:32.960 Islamic

01:11:33.340 Revolutionary

01:11:36.200 Guard

01:11:36.360 will be

01:11:37.360 the desired

01:11:38.680 outcome

01:11:39.080 so

01:11:40.300 this is a

01:11:41.400 mouse

01:11:41.580 calculation

01:11:42.160 by the

01:11:42.900 Iranians 0.58

01:11:43.440 of an

01:11:43.900 enormous

01:11:44.360 amount

01:11:44.940 well

01:11:46.260 it sounds

01:11:46.940 like this

01:11:47.420 is going

01:11:47.820 to

01:11:48.120 potentially

01:11:48.720 run

01:11:49.100 and run

01:11:49.480 and really

01:11:50.100 will be

01:11:51.240 a thing

01:11:51.980 that could 0.68

01:11:52.600 have a huge

01:11:53.860 impact on

01:11:54.560 geopolitics

01:11:55.800 on American

01:11:57.020 politics

01:11:57.500 on the

01:11:58.000 Trump

01:11:58.180 presidency

01:11:58.660 and we've

01:11:59.540 got five

01:12:00.020 minutes left

01:12:00.760 and I want

01:12:02.560 to touch on

01:12:03.040 geopolitics

01:12:03.600 before I

01:12:04.060 do I think

01:12:05.340 our audience

01:12:06.020 would have been

01:12:06.560 enjoying this

01:12:07.980 so far and I

01:12:08.480 just want to

01:12:08.900 remind them

01:12:09.440 Eamon Dean

01:12:10.220 the conflicted

01:12:11.160 podcast they can

01:12:11.860 go and listen

01:12:12.560 and check that

01:12:13.320 out and of

01:12:13.760 course Richard

01:12:14.160 with you

01:12:14.620 losing Bin Laden

01:12:15.980 mastermind

01:12:16.600 leading from

01:12:17.020 behind and a

01:12:17.520 whole bunch of

01:12:18.020 other very

01:12:18.900 successful books

01:12:19.760 that you've

01:12:20.160 written about

01:12:20.760 issues that

01:12:21.640 really very

01:12:22.260 closely to do

01:12:23.120 with this so

01:12:23.580 I hope people

01:12:23.960 go and check

01:12:24.500 both of your

01:12:25.100 work out after

01:12:26.160 this but the

01:12:27.300 final issue

01:12:28.240 that I think

01:12:28.760 we should

01:12:29.080 tackle before

01:12:29.740 we wrap up

01:12:30.400 is the

01:12:31.460 geopolitics

01:12:32.180 of it we

01:12:32.540 had we

01:12:33.460 recorded an

01:12:34.120 interview with

01:12:34.580 Canadian

01:12:34.960 opposition leader

01:12:35.720 Pierre Poly

01:12:36.240 of this

01:12:36.540 morning with

01:12:37.000 Francis and

01:12:39.100 he you know

01:12:39.560 his view was

01:12:40.360 the US is

01:12:41.740 effectively

01:12:42.660 engaging in

01:12:43.740 what you

01:12:44.160 might you

01:12:44.560 didn't use

01:12:44.960 the term

01:12:45.300 proxy war

01:12:46.060 but this he

01:12:47.160 did feel that

01:12:48.180 the dealing

01:12:49.060 with Iran in

01:12:49.720 this way is

01:12:50.580 a direct

01:12:51.180 anti-Chinese

01:12:52.720 dominance move

01:12:54.260 anti-Russian

01:12:55.160 dominance move

01:12:56.160 Eamon you're

01:12:56.820 shaking your head

01:12:57.400 Richard maybe

01:12:58.080 just briefly

01:12:59.460 very briefly a

01:13:00.220 minute and a

01:13:00.600 half each on

01:13:01.240 the geopolitics

01:13:02.280 of this is

01:13:03.080 this about

01:13:03.540 Russia and

01:13:04.000 China is this 0.99

01:13:04.660 just about

01:13:05.140 the Middle

01:13:05.520 East and

01:13:06.560 what is

01:13:06.960 likely to be

01:13:07.580 the geopolitical

01:13:08.300 impact of all

01:13:08.900 this

01:13:09.220 you want me to

01:13:11.820 go first

01:13:12.200 yeah please

01:13:12.960 90 seconds

01:13:14.420 90 seconds

01:13:15.720 okay

01:13:16.060 imagine you're

01:13:16.920 on the BBC

01:13:17.440 mate you've

01:13:18.020 got 90

01:13:18.440 seconds and

01:13:19.000 I'll interrupt

01:13:19.500 you seven

01:13:19.920 times

01:13:20.320 no problem

01:13:21.520 at all

01:13:21.820 like I'm

01:13:22.140 used to it

01:13:22.560 well look

01:13:24.400 here first

01:13:25.000 of all we

01:13:25.740 have to

01:13:25.980 understand that

01:13:26.560 the Iranian

01:13:26.940 regime established

01:13:27.980 proxies

01:13:28.420 established

01:13:29.300 terror cells all

01:13:30.600 across the

01:13:30.980 world you know

01:13:31.980 with Hezbollah

01:13:32.840 of course like

01:13:33.420 you know

01:13:33.580 basically in

01:13:34.160 places from

01:13:34.740 Latin America

01:13:35.360 West Africa

01:13:36.020 the United States

01:13:37.420 from Dearborn

01:13:38.120 Michigan all

01:13:39.680 the way to

01:13:40.020 Romania and

01:13:40.800 Eastern Europe

01:13:42.440 like all the

01:13:43.100 way to

01:13:43.380 Mauritius where

01:13:44.220 they have their

01:13:44.980 banking empire

01:13:45.820 so at the end

01:13:46.800 of the day

01:13:47.240 it's not about

01:13:48.620 China or 0.92

01:13:49.540 Russia it's 0.98

01:13:50.160 about the fact

01:13:50.700 that Iran 0.91

01:13:51.860 itself is a 0.90

01:13:53.100 gigantic beast 0.89

01:13:54.340 of terror

01:13:55.660 networks money

01:13:56.700 laundering networks

01:13:57.500 worth about

01:13:58.340 74 billion

01:13:59.040 dollars a year

01:13:59.680 you know you

01:14:00.340 are talking

01:14:00.780 about a

01:14:02.020 radicalization

01:14:03.200 movement that

01:14:05.080 is trying to

01:14:05.960 subvert Islam 1.00

01:14:07.940 and the 0.53

01:14:08.480 Islamic nations

01:14:09.220 you have a

01:14:10.520 movement that

01:14:11.220 is actually

01:14:11.760 within the

01:14:12.380 IRGC that's

01:14:13.180 trying to

01:14:13.700 swallow their 0.95

01:14:14.360 neighbors which

01:14:15.440 could upset

01:14:16.220 you know

01:14:17.560 especially when

01:14:18.160 their neighbors

01:14:18.820 and with Iran

01:14:19.960 together they

01:14:20.580 control about

01:14:21.140 60% of the

01:14:22.080 world's oil

01:14:22.680 reserves 40% of

01:14:23.940 the world's

01:14:24.340 natural gas

01:14:24.920 reserves this

01:14:26.100 is a threat to

01:14:27.120 global you know

01:14:28.540 energy security

01:14:29.600 and energy

01:14:30.280 safety when you

01:14:31.420 say America

01:14:32.060 first America

01:14:33.360 cannot be first

01:14:34.360 at home unless

01:14:35.680 if it is first

01:14:36.520 in the world

01:14:37.500 and therefore

01:14:38.360 like I mean

01:14:39.060 you cannot

01:14:39.580 allow you

01:14:40.660 know a

01:14:41.220 regime like

01:14:42.260 this to

01:14:43.140 threaten you

01:14:44.300 know the

01:14:44.740 safety stability

01:14:45.980 of the global

01:14:47.560 energy markets

01:14:48.560 you know for

01:14:49.820 ideological reasons

01:14:51.920 that have no

01:14:52.760 place in the

01:14:54.560 realm of

01:14:55.140 rational thinking

01:14:56.320 and logic

01:14:57.360 and the idea

01:14:59.040 that is about

01:14:59.700 Russia and

01:15:00.280 China no 1.00

01:15:01.040 Iran is as 1.00

01:15:02.860 big a threat

01:15:03.740 if even more

01:15:04.680 than Russia and

01:15:05.680 China combined 0.88

01:15:06.780 and it needs to

01:15:08.120 be dealt

01:15:08.660 with in a

01:15:09.880 bad you know

01:15:10.520 with as a

01:15:11.300 problem by

01:15:12.580 itself not

01:15:13.920 because it is

01:15:14.620 linked to either

01:15:15.620 Russia or China

01:15:16.420 okay Richard your

01:15:17.640 final thoughts

01:15:18.220 particularly on the

01:15:18.860 geopolitics of all

01:15:19.640 of this

01:15:19.940 yeah so let's

01:15:20.780 just focus on

01:15:21.660 Russia and China 0.56

01:15:22.680 if the regime

01:15:24.080 changes in Iran

01:15:24.980 the drone

01:15:27.520 production for

01:15:28.540 Russia disappears 0.81

01:15:30.000 that has an

01:15:30.800 enormous impact

01:15:31.700 on the Ukraine

01:15:32.780 war this may

01:15:34.360 be a piece of

01:15:35.340 a puzzle for

01:15:36.020 Trump to get

01:15:37.000 to peace in

01:15:37.900 Ukraine and

01:15:39.580 it may force

01:15:40.320 the Russians

01:15:40.760 hand that's

01:15:41.420 one to the

01:15:43.360 source of

01:15:44.420 cheap oil

01:15:45.260 remember with

01:15:45.740 sanctioned oil

01:15:46.500 the Chinese are 1.00

01:15:47.420 able to buy

01:15:47.840 Iranian oil at

01:15:48.800 below market

01:15:49.560 price we've

01:15:50.800 now seen in

01:15:51.580 the last month

01:15:52.240 a brand new

01:15:53.000 relationship

01:15:53.520 with India

01:15:55.340 they've taken

01:15:56.160 the Trump

01:15:56.620 administration has

01:15:57.340 taken the eye

01:15:58.060 out of bricks

01:15:58.780 with India

01:15:59.640 being the eye

01:16:00.240 and the Indian

01:16:01.720 Navy is boarding

01:16:03.240 and in some

01:16:03.820 cases sinking

01:16:04.760 the shadow

01:16:06.520 fleet of Russian 0.99

01:16:07.540 and Iranian

01:16:08.240 oil tankers

01:16:09.320 that will

01:16:10.700 increase and

01:16:11.640 be increasingly

01:16:12.440 coordinated

01:16:13.100 the ability

01:16:14.060 of the regime

01:16:14.780 to fuel

01:16:16.660 China will 0.99

01:16:17.540 go down

01:16:18.080 and then

01:16:19.200 with the

01:16:20.260 change in

01:16:20.600 regime it

01:16:21.580 will cease

01:16:21.940 to exist

01:16:22.480 what does

01:16:23.600 this mean

01:16:24.100 this means

01:16:24.940 that China 0.93

01:16:25.620 will not

01:16:26.160 have the

01:16:26.580 oil and

01:16:27.100 gas that

01:16:27.560 it needs

01:16:27.940 from Iran

01:16:28.560 to cross

01:16:29.900 the Taiwan

01:16:30.360 Strait

01:16:31.040 or to do

01:16:32.080 other things

01:16:32.700 and its

01:16:33.820 economy will

01:16:34.700 almost certainly

01:16:35.380 slow down

01:16:36.460 so its ability

01:16:37.360 to menace

01:16:38.000 its neighbors

01:16:38.600 will slow

01:16:39.500 down

01:16:39.840 so for those

01:16:41.120 China hawks 0.92

01:16:41.920 at the Pentagon

01:16:42.640 and elsewhere

01:16:43.340 in the

01:16:43.640 administration

01:16:44.060 they see

01:16:45.500 that undermining

01:16:47.100 Iran is key

01:16:48.320 to weakening

01:16:49.160 China

01:16:50.100 if you look

01:16:51.700 at what

01:16:52.120 Rubio

01:16:52.580 the Secretary

01:16:53.080 of State

01:16:53.400 has been

01:16:53.680 doing in

01:16:54.400 South America

01:16:55.160 not just

01:16:56.300 in Venezuela

01:16:58.040 but the

01:16:59.140 ongoing

01:16:59.460 negotiations

01:17:00.180 with the

01:17:00.900 President of

01:17:01.420 Colombia

01:17:01.740 who will

01:17:02.680 in the

01:17:03.760 next few

01:17:04.620 months

01:17:04.860 almost certainly

01:17:05.540 step down

01:17:06.180 his wife

01:17:06.640 has fled

01:17:06.980 to Sweden

01:17:07.460 and is

01:17:08.060 seeking

01:17:08.280 asylum

01:17:08.660 in that

01:17:08.960 country

01:17:09.320 you will

01:17:11.640 start to

01:17:12.040 see changes

01:17:12.660 in Nicaragua

01:17:13.420 and in

01:17:14.040 Cuba

01:17:14.280 and eventually

01:17:15.560 Mexico

01:17:16.420 that also

01:17:18.180 pushes

01:17:18.680 China

01:17:19.380 and Russia

01:17:20.040 out of the

01:17:21.200 Western

01:17:21.520 Hemisphere

01:17:22.260 maybe they

01:17:23.560 can hold

01:17:23.880 a toehold

01:17:24.600 in

01:17:25.000 Bolivia

01:17:27.120 and in

01:17:27.860 Brazil

01:17:28.260 but even

01:17:29.080 those are

01:17:30.020 fragmentary

01:17:31.880 right

01:17:32.220 so if you

01:17:33.700 look at it

01:17:34.160 on the

01:17:34.540 world

01:17:34.900 if you

01:17:35.140 spread out

01:17:35.540 the world

01:17:35.900 map

01:17:36.200 and you

01:17:36.440 see

01:17:36.800 what they're

01:17:37.600 doing

01:17:37.960 Iran

01:17:38.620 is the

01:17:39.580 latest

01:17:39.880 move

01:17:40.440 in a

01:17:40.900 continuing

01:17:41.360 of chess

01:17:41.880 moves

01:17:42.260 to

01:17:42.900 fundamentally

01:17:43.380 weaken

01:17:44.160 Russia

01:17:45.160 and China

01:17:45.840 and eventually

01:17:46.780 to turn

01:17:47.300 them against

01:17:47.980 each other

01:17:48.540 this is a

01:17:50.380 level of

01:17:51.000 almost

01:17:51.380 Nixonian

01:17:52.300 Kissingerian 0.97

01:17:53.360 complexity

01:17:54.380 being done

01:17:55.820 by eight

01:17:57.240 people

01:17:57.920 one of whom

01:17:58.380 is Trump

01:17:58.820 who only

01:17:59.680 talk to

01:18:00.120 themselves

01:18:00.680 and that

01:18:01.840 includes

01:18:02.200 Rubio

01:18:02.880 Hegseth

01:18:03.320 and so

01:18:03.600 on

01:18:03.740 so-called

01:18:04.500 gang of

01:18:04.880 eight

01:18:05.060 Susie Weiss

01:18:05.660 and so

01:18:05.920 on

01:18:06.120 but

01:18:07.680 this is

01:18:08.260 a very

01:18:08.880 complicated

01:18:09.620 chess move

01:18:10.280 critics

01:18:10.820 tend to

01:18:11.660 look at

01:18:11.920 these things

01:18:12.380 as isolated

01:18:13.360 episodes

01:18:13.960 and then

01:18:15.020 try to

01:18:15.460 make

01:18:16.140 historical

01:18:16.620 parallels

01:18:17.180 oh this

01:18:18.180 will be

01:18:18.400 another

01:18:18.660 Stalin 0.57

01:18:19.040 grab

01:18:19.360 this

01:18:19.580 will be

01:18:19.780 another

01:18:20.080 Iraq

01:18:20.640 there'll

01:18:20.820 be

01:18:20.900 another

01:18:21.120 Afghanistan

01:18:21.620 and so

01:18:22.080 on

01:18:22.280 they

01:18:23.080 simply

01:18:23.500 do

01:18:23.780 not

01:18:24.040 they

01:18:24.200 have

01:18:24.320 not

01:18:24.500 spread

01:18:24.780 out

01:18:24.920 the

01:18:25.080 world

01:18:25.260 map

01:18:25.580 and put

01:18:26.360 pins

01:18:26.940 on the

01:18:27.240 map

01:18:27.460 to see

01:18:27.940 all of

01:18:28.440 the

01:18:28.560 different

01:18:28.800 moves

01:18:29.100 being

01:18:29.320 made

01:18:29.660 to see

01:18:30.400 the

01:18:30.580 pattern

01:18:31.000 that

01:18:31.680 is

01:18:31.920 obvious

01:18:32.840 only at

01:18:33.480 the

01:18:33.620 highest

01:18:33.880 level

01:18:34.240 this is

01:18:35.700 a

01:18:35.900 fundamental

01:18:36.600 recalibration

01:18:37.720 of global

01:18:38.860 geopolitics

01:18:39.820 against

01:18:40.860 Russia

01:18:41.820 and China

01:18:42.820 Iran

01:18:43.460 is just

01:18:43.980 a piece

01:18:44.340 of it

01:18:44.600 gentlemen

01:18:45.940 thank you

01:18:46.700 so much

01:18:47.140 for sharing

01:18:47.760 your knowledge

01:18:48.360 and wisdom

01:18:48.840 and expertise

01:18:49.380 with us

01:18:49.980 and thank

01:18:51.160 you so much

01:18:51.600 for tuning

01:18:52.040 in and

01:18:52.400 watching it

01:18:52.900 we had

01:18:53.560 tens of

01:18:54.520 thousands

01:18:54.780 of people

01:18:55.220 watching this

01:18:55.760 live

01:18:56.020 there'll be

01:18:56.360 hundreds

01:18:56.620 of thousands

01:18:57.120 who watch

01:18:58.020 it in the

01:18:58.380 final analysis

01:18:59.040 if not

01:18:59.400 millions

01:18:59.700 and listen

01:19:00.440 to it

01:19:00.760 thank you

01:19:01.280 for being

01:19:01.560 here

01:19:01.740 please

01:19:02.180 hit the

01:19:02.680 like

01:19:02.860 button

01:19:03.100 and leave

01:19:03.420 a comment

01:19:03.780 so more

01:19:04.320 people see

01:19:04.840 that this

01:19:05.220 has been

01:19:05.480 here

01:19:05.700 and thank

01:19:06.520 you for

01:19:06.980 being with

01:19:07.680 us for

01:19:07.940 an hour

01:19:08.240 and a

01:19:08.460 bit

01:19:08.640 Richard

01:19:09.100 Eamon

01:19:09.440 thank you

01:19:09.820 so much

01:19:10.080 for joining

01:19:10.460 us

01:19:10.700 it's been

01:19:11.780 a real

01:19:12.020 pleasure

01:19:12.320 to get

01:19:12.800 your

01:19:13.000 knowledge

01:19:13.360 and to

01:19:14.060 help

01:19:14.400 to

01:19:14.660 understand

01:19:15.160 a little

01:19:15.500 bit

01:19:15.700 more

01:19:15.960 of what's

01:19:16.560 going

01:19:16.760 on

01:19:17.300 with that

01:19:18.020 we'll be

01:19:18.280 signing

01:19:18.540 off

01:19:18.820 and we'll

01:19:19.140 see you

01:19:19.420 soon

01:19:19.640 thanks

01:19:20.700 guys

01:19:21.020 getting ready

01:19:30.240 for a game

01:19:30.700 means being

01:19:31.220 ready for

01:19:31.680 anything

01:19:32.100 like packing

01:19:33.080 a spare

01:19:33.520 stick

01:19:33.860 I like

01:19:34.700 to be

01:19:34.980 prepared

01:19:35.360 that's

01:19:36.160 why I

01:19:36.400 remember

01:19:36.740 988

01:19:37.480 Canada's

01:19:38.260 suicide

01:19:38.540 crisis

01:19:38.960 helpline

01:19:39.420 it's

01:19:40.060 good to

01:19:40.360 know

01:19:40.560 just in

01:19:41.180 case

01:19:41.460 anyone

01:19:42.240 can

01:19:42.520 call

01:19:42.820 or text

01:19:43.280 for free

01:19:43.820 confidential

01:19:44.320 support

01:19:44.780 from a

01:19:45.100 trained

01:19:45.340 responder

01:19:45.800 anytime

01:19:46.740 988

01:19:47.800 suicide

01:19:48.380 crisis

01:19:48.820 helpline

01:19:49.240 is funded

01:19:49.640 by the

01:19:49.940 government

01:19:50.240 of Canada

01:19:50.740 $1

01:19:52.460 To be

01:19:53.020 public

01:19:53.620 know

01:19:54.040 $2

01:19:54.700 p

01:20:09.540 $1

01:20:10.400 $

01:20:12.180 $2

01:20:15.360 $

01:20:18.760 $

01:20:19.460 $

01:20:20.060 $

01:20:20.100 $

TRIGGERnometry - March 02, 2026

The Best Iran War Breakdown You'll See on the Internet with Aimen Dean & Richard Miniter

Episode Stats

Summary

Transcript