TRIGGERnometry - January 08, 2025


The Truth About Ozempic, Sugar and Big Food - Dr. Peter Attia


Episode Stats

Length

1 hour and 3 minutes

Words per Minute

182.14037

Word Count

11,512

Sentence Count

653

Misogynist Sentences

3


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

In this episode, Dr. Peter Kogan joins us to talk about his new book, "How to be Healthy in a World Where Medicine Hasn't Covered It." Dr. Kogan talks about the history of medicine, the role of food, and why we should all be eating more of it.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
00:00:00.640 You mentioned, you know, the hamburger that you eat today is not the hamburger you had 50 years ago.
00:00:05.140 Why is that?
00:00:05.980 I mean, in a word, it's scale and economics.
00:00:08.700 The truth of it is, agriculture is broken.
00:00:11.940 The standard American diet that we have is nothing more than a solution to a business problem.
00:00:18.660 Crop subsidies led to basically the total destruction of soil in the United States.
00:00:25.540 And if nutrient density goes down, you have to eat more of something.
00:00:29.600 All of this is probably not the end of the world if we didn't consume it in excess.
00:00:36.460 Peter, it's great to finally have you on the show, man.
00:00:39.780 Last time we were here, you very kindly gave us a couple of copies of your book.
00:00:44.360 And I was not someone who actually paid too much attention to my health prior to that.
00:00:48.340 I was just kind of naturally thin.
00:00:49.780 And so I was like, you know, I'm really healthy.
00:00:52.400 And then on the plane back, I started reading the book and I couldn't put it down.
00:00:56.500 And by the time we landed, I'd finished the book.
00:00:58.460 And then started actually looking into a lot of the stuff that you're talking about, which is all about how to be healthy in a world in which medicine hasn't caught up to many other things that are going on.
00:01:10.380 So talk to us about that, first of all.
00:01:11.900 Like, you have this concept of medicine 2.0 and 3.0, which is really interesting.
00:01:16.440 Well, first off, thanks for having me, guys.
00:01:18.860 As you know, because we've talked about it over many meals, I mean, I'm just such a huge fan of your podcast.
00:01:23.800 I enjoy it on all topics.
00:01:26.340 So it's an honor to be here and talk about my pet topic.
00:01:29.960 So, yeah, so medicine 2.0, I think to understand it, you sort of have to understand a little bit of what medicine 1.0 was.
00:01:36.440 So this is basically an evolution of how we think about medicine.
00:01:39.800 And for most of human history, you know, dating back thousands of years, there was no scientific basis for medicine.
00:01:47.840 So we didn't, without a scientific method, you can't really practice the process of science.
00:01:53.520 And therefore, anything that was imputed about illness was really, you know, thought to be based on the gods or bad humors or things of that nature.
00:02:03.300 So when a person was ill, you didn't really know what to attribute it to, right?
00:02:07.880 So medicine 1.0 sort of evolved into medicine 2.0 in the latter part of the 19th century.
00:02:14.560 Again, it wasn't just at the advent of the scientific method, which came along 300 years earlier, but it was really other tools that enabled it.
00:02:22.220 And one of the most important was the light microscope.
00:02:23.920 So the moment we as a species could appreciate microscopic entities, bacteria namely, and also eventually come to understand that there were things like viruses, it created a whole new infrastructure in the way we thought and the way we treated disease.
00:02:39.180 And then when you add to that the advent of antimicrobial therapy and antibiotics, really medicine changed.
00:02:45.620 And it sounds like overnight, because in the grand timescale of human civilization, it was almost an overnight change.
00:02:52.960 And it produced an almost overnight, although in reality four or five generations, doubling of human lifespan.
00:02:59.160 So we went from basically living to a life expectancy of the late 30s and early 40s to now late 70s, early 80s.
00:03:07.240 And that's largely been due to kind of the amelioration of the following.
00:03:12.000 So we are much better at treating trauma.
00:03:15.160 We are much better at infant mortality and maternal mortality.
00:03:19.620 And we are much better at treating acute conditions, primarily those that involve infections.
00:03:24.560 So it's largely been those three things that have doubled human lifespan.
00:03:29.220 And so Medicine 2.0 is humming along, and it's the thing that we're swimming in, right?
00:03:35.880 That's the water of medicine today.
00:03:38.440 And again, it's very good.
00:03:39.980 We collectively wouldn't be sitting here without Medicine 2.0.
00:03:43.600 What I argue in the book is that unlike where Medicine 2.0 completely displaced Medicine 1.0,
00:03:49.940 we don't need a Medicine 3.0 to displace 2.0.
00:03:53.020 We want to preserve all the benefits of 2.0.
00:03:55.100 But what we need to do is sort of allocate part of the portfolio to this thing called Medicine 3.0,
00:04:00.280 which is slightly different.
00:04:02.300 Instead of trying to apply the hammer of treat something when it arrives,
00:04:06.700 which is the Medicine 2.0 strategy, that doesn't seem to work with chronic diseases.
00:04:11.980 And it's now chronic diseases that are killing most people in the developed world.
00:04:15.980 We instead have to prevent these things decades before they show up.
00:04:19.740 So you don't treat heart disease when a person has coronary plaque, right?
00:04:24.600 That's a process that's been going on for 50 years.
00:04:27.040 Sorry, Peter, to stop you there, because there's going to be a lot of people listening to this
00:04:30.180 who don't know what coronary plaque is.
00:04:31.980 So can you just explain it to them and then move on?
00:04:35.000 Sure.
00:04:35.600 So if somebody has a heart attack, why is that, right?
00:04:39.500 So cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death globally.
00:04:42.500 19 million people per year die from cardiovascular disease.
00:04:46.220 Number two, by comparison, is cancer at 13 million.
00:04:49.840 So cardiovascular disease occurs when plaque accumulates in the arteries of the heart.
00:04:57.220 And the heart is very sensitive to anything that reduces its blood flow and subsequent oxygen
00:05:04.500 delivery.
00:05:06.240 And so these plaques accumulate very, very slowly on the order of decades, not years.
00:05:12.780 And we know that these plaques are accumulating in teenagers.
00:05:16.560 And we know this because when you look at cases of young men and women who die in trauma
00:05:22.200 for reasons that have no relation to heart disease, you still see on autopsy small amounts
00:05:27.960 of coronary plaque accumulating.
00:05:30.200 And so the idea that we should wait until those coronary plaques become significant enough
00:05:35.200 that either A, somebody has their first heart attack, or B, you do a study on them, like
00:05:40.320 a CT scan of the heart, where you can visibly see the coronary plaque.
00:05:43.840 And then we decide to treat them, which would kind of be part of the way that most people
00:05:49.680 would think about this, probably doesn't make sense, right?
00:05:53.440 When instead, you might want to be treating that decades before it shows up.
00:05:58.140 In other words, using that as an example, you want to treat the causal agents of the disease
00:06:03.560 and not wait for the disease to take hold.
00:06:06.120 So an example of where Medicine 2.0 does this very well is with smoking, right?
00:06:10.540 So with smoking, there's nobody out there saying, we should get people to stop smoking once they
00:06:18.660 start to develop nodules in their lung that look suspicious for cancer.
00:06:22.900 We don't say that.
00:06:24.160 Why?
00:06:24.660 Because we know that smoking is causally related to lung cancer.
00:06:28.460 And when you know that, you tell people to never smoke.
00:06:32.920 And the minute they start smoking, you get them to stop regardless of risk.
00:06:36.940 And meaning regardless of age or any other risk factor.
00:06:40.540 Similarly, we know what the causal drivers are of cardiovascular disease, right?
00:06:44.860 So it's, the technical term is hyperbeta lipoproteinemia.
00:06:48.340 That's just a very fancy way of saying the types of cholesterol-carrying molecules that
00:06:53.580 have a certain thing on them called ApoB.
00:06:55.680 So that's the LDL, the VLDL, the IDL, LP little a.
00:07:00.060 All of those little particles are causally related.
00:07:02.960 High blood pressure is causally related.
00:07:05.140 Insulin resistance is causally related.
00:07:07.080 So what we want to be able to do is treat those things the second they emerge.
00:07:11.020 Even if a person is young, otherwise healthy, or otherwise low risk.
00:07:16.180 Another very important tenet of Medicine 3.0 is not just the early and aggressive primordial
00:07:22.780 prevention, but it's also this emphasis on health span as being equal to lifespan.
00:07:27.880 So lifespan, I think, is a pretty obvious concept.
00:07:30.820 It's how long you live, and it's quite binary, which makes it easier to understand you're
00:07:36.120 alive or you're dead.
00:07:37.160 Health span is a little more subjective, and what one person deems exceptional health span
00:07:43.640 might not be that of another.
00:07:44.660 But regardless, I think people intuitively understand what quality of life means.
00:07:49.200 And it has a sort of physical, cognitive, emotional component.
00:07:52.460 And Medicine 3.0 would treat the optimization of that at the same level.
00:07:57.700 It's equally important to how long you live.
00:08:01.000 And that's important because what gets measured gets managed, right?
00:08:04.400 And so Medicine 2.0 really optimizes around lifespan, and therefore that's the metric that
00:08:10.300 we track.
00:08:11.500 Well, that was really the thing that shook me kind of awake when I was reading the book,
00:08:17.140 because you have this, I think it's a graph and also an explanation to basically show,
00:08:22.460 I mean, this may be overstating it slightly, but the way we currently manage health is essentially
00:08:26.380 we live, then we get sick, and then medicine comes in and extends as much as possible the
00:08:33.940 period of our life when we are sick so that we can live longer.
00:08:38.200 But you're living longer while really actually having some real issues, right?
00:08:42.780 And what you were talking about in the book very powerfully is how do you extend the period
00:08:47.360 of life when you're not sick so that you kind of have a very short period of the end of your
00:08:51.800 life when you are maybe dealing with issues, and then you die.
00:08:54.960 So you're kind of extending your actual high quality life.
00:08:59.500 And that seems to me like a pretty good thing to be doing.
00:09:02.940 I think that's honestly what anybody who puts a lot of thought into it will come to the conclusion.
00:09:09.420 And I say that because I spend time with lots of people where I'm asking them to really make
00:09:16.480 trade-offs and thought around that, right?
00:09:18.620 So I'm sort of saying, like, what do you want the last decade of your life to look like?
00:09:22.760 Like, really put some thought into this.
00:09:24.140 Like, this is an exercise that we do.
00:09:25.720 It's called the marginal decade exercise because we refer to that last decade of life as the
00:09:29.620 marginal decade.
00:09:31.180 And what I can tell you is I have yet to meet an individual.
00:09:34.640 Now, maybe my sample size is, you know, only, you know, hundreds instead of millions.
00:09:38.040 But I have yet to meet a person who, when contemplating their marginal decade, i.e., the last decade
00:09:45.220 of their life, something all of us will have as sure as God made little green apples, everybody
00:09:51.240 is focused far more on what they will be able to do in that decade than how old they will
00:09:57.220 be.
00:09:57.820 Now, obviously, nobody would view a marginal decade from the ages of 51 to 61 as ideal.
00:10:03.880 In other words, anybody would argue that, hey, to die at 61 would be premature and awful.
00:10:08.320 We don't want that.
00:10:09.280 So we have to take the steps to address lifespan, which means delaying the onset of chronic disease.
00:10:15.080 But I don't see anybody saying that, you know, 85 to 95 at very good health is demonstrably
00:10:25.100 worse than 100 to 110 at, you know, marginal health.
00:10:31.060 Even though you live 15 years longer, something to that effect.
00:10:35.080 So I think quality of life is actually what most people really focus on when you force
00:10:41.600 them to kind of go through the exercise of what will it tangibly look like in the end
00:10:46.940 of your life?
00:10:47.520 Do you want to be able to sit on the floor?
00:10:50.660 Do you want to be able to stand up?
00:10:52.320 How much do you want to be able to ambulate?
00:10:54.640 What does travel mean to you?
00:10:56.500 What does living alone mean?
00:10:57.940 And by living alone, I don't mean necessarily without others, but living without assistance.
00:11:01.860 Do you want to be able to live with your spouse?
00:11:04.540 Or if you are living alone, do you want to be able to care for yourself?
00:11:08.200 These are things that when people are asked to stop and reflect on them become far more
00:11:13.240 important than the how many years am I going to be?
00:11:16.180 It's a really profound point.
00:11:18.100 And one of the things that I found very interesting in your book, Peter, is when you were talking
00:11:22.520 about type 2 diabetes and how we're not actually talking about what a serious condition this
00:11:30.200 is.
00:11:30.860 And then I started looking at the stats about obesity and the proportion of people that are
00:11:38.220 overweight in this country.
00:11:39.580 Something like 74% of Americans are overweight.
00:11:42.660 I think it's something like 40% of Americans are obese.
00:11:46.060 around 10% are severely obese.
00:11:49.740 I mean, that's terrifying.
00:11:53.560 Yeah.
00:11:54.240 I mean, I think there's so many different ways to look at it.
00:11:57.860 And obviously, we need to caveat all of that by saying that there is this now new class of
00:12:03.840 drugs that more than any other drugs in the history of as long as we've been dealing with
00:12:10.560 this problem appear to be more efficacious and with fewer side effects than anything we've
00:12:17.000 seen.
00:12:17.540 So if we bracket that for a moment and say, let's come back to it, the obvious question
00:12:22.260 is, why is this epidemic happening?
00:12:25.440 And what is the implication of it from the health of the population and economically?
00:12:31.440 And what would one need to do to address it?
00:12:33.960 So we could talk about any of those that you like.
00:12:36.880 Yeah.
00:12:36.960 I think what's causing it would be a good start.
00:12:41.440 Yeah.
00:12:41.580 Let's do what's causing it, actually.
00:12:43.320 And if you could tell the story, because I found it incredibly powerful about the story
00:12:47.840 about when you were working as a surgeon.
00:12:50.300 I think it's the technical term as a surgeon's assistant.
00:12:52.780 And you were talking and you were interacting with the patient just before they went to have
00:12:59.460 a surgery and they told you they weren't an alcoholic.
00:13:02.320 Yeah.
00:13:02.620 So I was in my, and I go, we have a different system here than probably some of the, the
00:13:06.620 nomenclature in the UK.
00:13:07.940 So I was an intern at that point in time.
00:13:10.640 So I was, it was the first year of my surgical residencies.
00:13:13.640 I mean, it's the first year I was an actual doctor.
00:13:15.420 So you'd finished medical school, you've chosen your specialty.
00:13:18.340 And yes, for that, in that particular case, I was doing what was called pre-opping.
00:13:22.900 So getting a patient ready for surgery.
00:13:24.620 This was a gentleman who needed part of his colon removed for, because he had colon cancer.
00:13:31.340 And so there's a, there's just a checklist of questions you ask these patients, any patient
00:13:37.080 before they undergo surgery.
00:13:38.520 And one of the questions is about how much alcohol they drink.
00:13:41.760 And the reason for that is not to be judgmental.
00:13:43.980 It's because it really matters in terms of both the anesthesia they receive and also how
00:13:49.800 you manage potential withdrawal from alcohol following surgery when they can't actually eat
00:13:55.480 or drink anything by mouth for a few days.
00:13:57.160 So in a manner of normal discussion, this gentleman mentioned that he barely drank alcohol at all,
00:14:02.820 thought nothing of it.
00:14:04.080 And the next day when we are operating on him, and of course, because I was only the intern,
00:14:08.880 I'm not doing any actual operating.
00:14:10.740 I'm retracting.
00:14:11.840 So my job is to hold him open while the chief resident and the attending surgeon are operating.
00:14:17.040 And sure enough, his liver was malted with fat.
00:14:20.980 Now that's something you only saw historically in people who were severe drinkers.
00:14:27.160 At the time, it was very poor, this is 25, yeah, almost 25 years ago, it was very poorly
00:14:34.640 acknowledged that there was a condition called non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, right?
00:14:40.140 Where you had the same appearing liver, but it wasn't occurring because of excess alcohol.
00:14:45.880 It was excess calories that were being shunted into that very unfavorable storage location.
00:14:54.380 Now today we recognize this as an epidemic actually.
00:14:57.520 And today this is the leading indication for liver transplantation in the United States.
00:15:03.300 And, you know, that's kind of a remarkable statistic when you stop to think about it,
00:15:08.420 that there are people who are literally receiving liver transplants today because their livers have
00:15:13.540 become so cirrhotic due to the scarring and inflammation associated with excess accumulation of fat.
00:15:19.000 And again, that's both from alcohol, but also a significant portion of that is not from alcohol.
00:15:25.160 And when we say not from alcohol, what do we mean?
00:15:29.380 Well, the best of our belief system is this is really caloric excess.
00:15:33.420 So this is people who are not consuming alcohol.
00:15:36.400 And if they are, they're consuming it minimally.
00:15:38.280 But this accumulation of fat in the liver along with its concomitant metabolic derangement is
00:15:43.700 the result of excess calories being taken on relative to the level of exertion of an individual.
00:15:49.220 And is that why Americans and Westerners more broadly, because it's a big problem in the
00:15:52.780 UK as well, are so overweight?
00:15:55.260 Is it that we just eat more than we burn off?
00:15:58.180 Or is there something else going on in terms of the food system and all the rest of it?
00:16:02.240 Well, I think it's all connected.
00:16:03.480 So you have to think about it through the lens of like, what's the proximate physiologic
00:16:08.420 explanation of what's happening?
00:16:09.900 And then you can peel back the layers of, well, why is that happening?
00:16:13.380 And why is that happening?
00:16:14.460 So at the simplest level of physics, it's clearly a caloric imbalance.
00:16:19.500 Now, that's not the most helpful explanation, right?
00:16:22.300 That's sort of like saying, we're sitting in a room with 20 people.
00:16:27.520 Why are there 20 people?
00:16:28.980 Well, the physics answer is 20 more people entered this room than left the room.
00:16:36.080 Thank you.
00:16:36.760 That's very helpful.
00:16:37.920 Why?
00:16:38.460 Is there free food being given out?
00:16:40.780 Is there an interesting person in the room that they're all coming to listen to?
00:16:44.400 That's the sort of the real why that we want to get at.
00:16:47.260 So the real why as to why are people consuming more calories than they expend today relative to
00:16:55.240 any time in the past has to do with, I believe, so many factors.
00:16:59.960 And unfortunately, I think it's very tempting.
00:17:02.300 And I've done this myself, so I can take responsibility for this in some way.
00:17:06.400 It's very tempting to isolate one factor and say, it's because there is more processed food.
00:17:11.200 It's because we eat too much sugar.
00:17:13.060 It's because of social media that keeps us glued to our phones instead of being active.
00:17:17.800 It's because we are not sleeping as well.
00:17:19.920 And the truth of it is, it's a bit of everything.
00:17:23.280 There's no doubt that food is today more hyperpalatable and more calorically dense than at any time
00:17:29.980 in the past.
00:17:30.540 This is an undeniable fact over the past two decades.
00:17:33.740 It is also absolutely clear that people are, on average, less active today than they were
00:17:41.460 50 years ago.
00:17:42.840 It is also a fact today that people generally consume lower quality food.
00:17:51.320 Even, you know, the same type of thing that they might have consumed, like whether it was a hamburger
00:17:55.100 that you ate 50 years ago or a hamburger today, it's not just that the portion size is larger today.
00:17:59.980 It's that the actual quality of the food is lower.
00:18:02.660 Now, we don't necessarily know what the impact of each of these things is individually,
00:18:06.680 but it's very hard to deny that something in the way we eat is probably playing the most
00:18:13.100 dominant role.
00:18:13.940 Can I just ask this question?
00:18:15.220 Because when you were telling that story about the patient's incredibly fatty liver, you
00:18:21.860 mentioned that the guy was drinking a lot of fizzy drinks, soda.
00:18:26.580 And it made me think, number one, that's a huge problem.
00:18:29.060 But number two, it's something that I noticed here, and Constantine's mentioned it as well.
00:18:33.000 Sugar seems to be in everything here.
00:18:34.540 Yeah, like even coming over from the UK where people are hardly all slim and healthy, it's
00:18:40.480 like you get a coffee, it feels like it's got way more sugar in it than the exact...
00:18:46.160 If you go to a Starbucks, basically what I'm saying, and get a latte, that tastes way sweeter
00:18:51.860 than a latte in the UK.
00:18:53.240 Yeah.
00:18:53.700 Well, that's interesting because in theory, the latte shouldn't be much different.
00:18:57.380 If it's a true latte, it's literally like, are you putting milk in it or half and half
00:19:01.900 cream or whatever?
00:19:02.700 But no doubt, when you go to Starbucks, just to pick on Starbucks for the moment, it is
00:19:09.280 unbelievable the amount of calories and sugar that are flowing out of their Frappuccinos
00:19:14.880 and all of their drinks I can't even name.
00:19:17.540 And I do find that remarkably interesting.
00:19:19.760 I also think there's probably...
00:19:22.640 I say this probably, like not definitively, there's probably something to be said for drinking
00:19:30.420 calories in excess, being even a little more damning than eating calories in excess.
00:19:36.280 And I think there's decent evidence for that when it comes to sugar.
00:19:39.320 In other words, if a person is going to eat 50 grams of sugar versus drink 50 grams of sugar,
00:19:46.440 sugar, I think there's, in the animals, very compelling evidence that the latter is more
00:19:52.200 problematic.
00:19:53.340 The reason for it gets into a bit of technical biochemistry, but sugar is half fructose and
00:19:58.480 half glucose.
00:19:59.800 Fructose is what gives sugar its sweetness.
00:20:02.400 It's also a molecule that has a very unique metabolism.
00:20:05.480 Both of them are metabolized quite readily by cells, but the speed at which fructose is
00:20:12.040 metabolized is much higher.
00:20:14.080 And in the process of metabolizing fructose, cells have to use the currency of energy called
00:20:20.480 ATP.
00:20:21.620 So the rate of ATP depletion in cells within the gut and ultimately the liver as they metabolize
00:20:29.500 fructose requires that more energy is put into the system.
00:20:33.920 What does that mean in English?
00:20:34.860 It means that if you're drinking a lot of sugar, even though you're getting energy and you
00:20:40.360 should be satiated, it can actually have the reverse effect, which is, I need more energy.
00:20:45.160 It signals to the brain, I need more energy because there's a depletion of ATP required
00:20:49.440 to increase the speed of metabolism of it relative to glucose, right?
00:20:53.400 So this would be the difference between eating 100 calories that is half fructose, half glucose
00:20:58.260 versus eating 100 calories of glucose.
00:20:59.920 Yeah, that makes sense.
00:21:01.020 And you were talking about the decline in the quality of food.
00:21:03.640 This has been a big part, you know, by the time this video has gone out, the election
00:21:06.640 has already happened and America is over, whichever side wins.
00:21:10.140 Right.
00:21:10.320 Just so people know, we're having this discussion not knowing who's going to win the election.
00:21:14.220 Right.
00:21:14.540 Right.
00:21:14.760 Right.
00:21:15.300 But it has been made into a conversation, which I think is a good thing, that the quality
00:21:20.460 of food in America has declined over time.
00:21:23.500 And you mentioned, you know, the hamburger that you eat today is not the hamburger you
00:21:26.580 had 50 years ago.
00:21:27.720 Why is that?
00:21:29.880 I mean, in a word, it's scale and economics, right?
00:21:32.500 So we have to understand.
00:21:34.380 And I, you know, I think it's very tempting to just demonize big food.
00:21:39.140 And to be clear, I don't have a dog in this fight.
00:21:42.040 Like, I don't, I don't know anybody that works for big food.
00:21:44.840 I have no, you know, I don't own Monsanto stock.
00:21:48.000 Like, I truly think about this from purely a scientific and policy perspective.
00:21:52.940 But what I don't think people understand is the complexity that has been involved in the
00:21:59.100 agricultural revolution and what it takes to feed billions of people.
00:22:04.800 So the way I think about it is there's a problem statement, right?
00:22:08.380 What the problem statement is, so we could go back in time a hundred years and I'm going
00:22:12.380 to anoint you to the food czars of the universe.
00:22:15.440 Well, we're already fucked then.
00:22:19.260 I say to you, listen, guys, here's the problem you have to solve.
00:22:21.780 I want you to figure out a way to feed eight at the time, whatever it was, you know, four
00:22:25.780 billion people or whatever the number would have been.
00:22:27.300 It would have been less than that.
00:22:28.140 But I want you to feed it, figure out a few billions of people.
00:22:30.860 But here's the thing.
00:22:31.700 So one, you have to do that scale.
00:22:35.080 It's never been done before, right?
00:22:36.720 It used to be you had farmers that would sort of farm locally and they would sort of feed
00:22:42.360 a certain area and that would be the end of it, right?
00:22:44.200 So you have to be able to, if you build, feed a lot of people, you have to be able to transport
00:22:49.280 food and keep it from spoiling when you do.
00:22:53.440 We have to make it taste good.
00:22:55.480 We have to make it really cheap.
00:22:57.640 Go.
00:22:59.440 It's hard to imagine that people would come up with a very different system from the
00:23:04.740 one we have today.
00:23:05.720 So what I've referred to, and I'm sure I took this term from somebody else because there's
00:23:10.680 no way I was the person that came up with this, but what I've referred to as the default
00:23:14.960 food environment.
00:23:16.760 The standard American diet that we have is nothing more than a solution to a business
00:23:22.900 problem.
00:23:24.120 Now, a lot of times the solution to a business problem ends up having collateral damage.
00:23:29.980 So if you were a tobacco farmer and I said to you, what are you going to do with all this
00:23:34.820 crop you have?
00:23:36.640 And you came up with this idea.
00:23:37.820 Well, what if we roll these things up and give them to people and let them light it and
00:23:40.900 smoke it?
00:23:41.380 I mean, it's got, it seems to produce great qualities.
00:23:44.260 Have you noticed when people smoke that thing that I have on my field, they don't eat as
00:23:48.240 much, they lose weight, their mental alertness goes up and they feel better.
00:23:51.540 That's great.
00:23:52.600 So you had a business problem.
00:23:54.040 You had to get rid of that crop.
00:23:55.180 You got rid of that crop.
00:23:56.060 You made this thing.
00:23:56.800 Well, it turned out there was a nasty side effect of that that didn't show up for 20 years,
00:24:01.140 which is sort of killing people as well.
00:24:03.800 Does that mean that people set out to do that, to kill people?
00:24:06.300 Of course not.
00:24:06.800 You never want to kill your customer.
00:24:08.440 It doesn't justify anything in tobacco.
00:24:10.520 It just makes the point that people apply morality to these things when in reality, what's really
00:24:16.080 happening is these are just people trying to solve a business problem and there are unintended
00:24:19.900 consequences.
00:24:20.620 There are nonlinearities everywhere.
00:24:22.900 So the truth of it is agriculture is broken.
00:24:28.000 I think there's ample evidence to suggest, and this really goes back 100 years, right?
00:24:34.120 So if you go back to the Dust Bowl, which was 90 years ago in the middle of this country,
00:24:38.740 was really when agriculture took a turn for the worse.
00:24:41.980 So call it the 1920s into the 1930s when crop subsidies led to basically the total destruction
00:24:50.720 of soil in the United States, right?
00:24:52.900 So instead of saying, hey, we'll grow wheat this year, we'll grow soy the next year, we'll
00:24:59.720 grow a different crop the next year and rotate these crops and let the soil actually dictate
00:25:05.900 what we grow.
00:25:06.980 It turned into we're going to add more nitrogen in the form of fertilizer.
00:25:11.060 We're going to drive crop yields as much as possible.
00:25:13.500 And then, of course, you had a subsidy that came in that enabled that flywheel.
00:25:17.260 And then what happened is we've kind of eroded soil to the point where we're now completely
00:25:21.000 dependent on not just genetically modified crops, which people hear that and they get
00:25:27.880 all phosphorylated.
00:25:29.140 What that really means is crops that are now dependent on pesticides.
00:25:34.520 And we run these monocrops and we just do all of these things that produce basically
00:25:40.460 suboptimal plants that are grown in suboptimal soil that feed animals that become suboptimal
00:25:46.080 in their quality.
00:25:47.500 And again, all of this is probably not the end of the world if we didn't consume it in
00:25:52.540 excess.
00:25:53.020 So I think it just becomes like another thing that gets layered on the problem is, well,
00:25:58.200 on top of that, and some have argued, by the way, that that's another factor driving
00:26:02.040 our excess consumption, which is we have sort of a governor in us that is selecting for nutrient
00:26:07.140 quality.
00:26:08.260 And if nutrient density goes down, you have to eat more of something, right?
00:26:12.820 Like use an example.
00:26:13.980 Like if you have sort of a central mechanism for seeking out how much micronutrient you
00:26:20.560 want and you're used to getting it in a certain amount of rice and a certain amount of wheat
00:26:25.620 and a certain amount of meat, but now the actual density of those things is 30% less,
00:26:32.080 would you eat 30% more to compensate without realizing it?
00:26:35.020 So this is one of the theories of overconsumption.
00:26:38.560 Again, I don't think any one theory is entirely correct, but I suspect many theories play a
00:26:43.620 role in this.
00:26:44.580 And so we now have this population that is a lot of significant percentage or obese, morbidly
00:26:51.920 obese, almost three quarters are overweight.
00:26:54.940 That's a ticking time bomb, isn't it, Peter, for a country?
00:26:59.000 It certainly seems like it.
00:27:00.760 And then the question becomes what part of the system breaks first?
00:27:05.440 So we could talk about different parts of the system.
00:27:08.000 So let's talk about one that doesn't get that much attention, but which is sort of preparedness
00:27:12.660 for war.
00:27:13.580 So we're currently in the last, I would say, 10 to 15 years for the first time in U.S.
00:27:18.440 history when most people who show up at a recruiting station are failing a physical.
00:27:23.200 They aren't actually physically capable to meet the standards of the U.S. military.
00:27:27.340 So what is the implication of that?
00:27:29.620 Well, again, maybe the implication of that is, and maybe the implication of that is irrelevant,
00:27:34.820 right?
00:27:34.940 It might be that we're never going to fight wars again that require hundreds of thousands
00:27:38.040 of soldiers.
00:27:39.000 But what we can say with some confidence today is if we had to, we would have a problem.
00:27:45.380 Another obvious, I think more obvious implication is the economic one.
00:27:49.800 So as you guys probably know, the U.S. spends more on health care than any other country
00:27:53.620 in the world, both in absolute terms and relative terms.
00:27:55.820 In relative terms, we're spending about 18% of our GDP in health.
00:28:00.100 And that's problematic in many levels, but perhaps the most problematic aspect of that
00:28:05.700 is that the rate of health care expenditure as a function of GDP is outpacing inflation
00:28:11.440 by 3-4%, and it's been doing that without abating.
00:28:17.660 In other words, there was a day when health care spending as a function of GDP was 5%, it's
00:28:22.200 now 18%, and that it's growing because health care spending is growing faster than GDP.
00:28:28.480 Now, I've spent a lot of time on this problem, so this might be the problem I spend the most
00:28:33.280 time thinking about.
00:28:34.500 And what's driving that cost is many things, but a piece of what's driving it is our health.
00:28:39.700 It's not the only thing.
00:28:40.960 To be clear, anybody who says you are going to solve health care economics by getting everybody
00:28:46.740 healthy is wrong.
00:28:47.620 Well, aging is a massive factor, isn't it?
00:28:49.940 No, I mean, believe it or not, the biggest thing that's driving the U.S. health care
00:28:54.460 spending is the consumerism mindset of an American.
00:28:57.960 Okay.
00:28:58.380 Yeah.
00:28:58.700 So technically, the single biggest driver, because U.S. health care spending is one, well,
00:29:05.580 85% of it is divided as one-third drugs, one-third facilities, and one-third personnel.
00:29:13.500 And then 15% is administrative cost that's associated with a multi-payer system.
00:29:20.080 So which of those three buckets are being driven?
00:29:23.780 Because this administrative piece is not being driven by how sick people are.
00:29:27.300 That's simply the infrastructure of our system.
00:29:29.740 Technically, the cost of personnel is really more a function of the U.S. economy and salaries
00:29:35.940 here.
00:29:36.240 So it really comes down to facilities and medications.
00:29:39.760 And so it's really the medication bucket that is pushing hard, that you could reduce the most
00:29:45.220 by fixing the health of the population.
00:29:49.200 But again, every dollar matters when you're at 18% and trying to avoid being 19% and 20%,
00:29:56.040 which we probably will at some point if we don't fix this problem.
00:29:59.040 Um, and then I think there's sort of just the personal toll it takes, which is, you know,
00:30:04.900 it's harder to put a dollar amount on that, but there's a ton of stigma associated with
00:30:08.840 being overweight.
00:30:09.660 I don't think there's anybody out there who's walking around who's overweight, who's oblivious
00:30:13.340 to the fact, or who wants to be in that situation.
00:30:15.560 And I think many of these people are quite frustrated.
00:30:17.620 And I think it's, look, I think it's very easy to kind of demonize people who are unhealthy
00:30:20.940 and say, oh, you know, why don't you just buck her up and eat less and exercise more?
00:30:24.720 But, but I think that's, I think that's, I don't, I don't favor that approach.
00:30:28.160 And I think that, um, I think we need to have more empathy for people.
00:30:31.520 Like I think, sure, there's always the edge case of the person who just truly says, fuck
00:30:35.440 it.
00:30:36.140 Like, I just want to eat Big Macs all day and I don't care.
00:30:39.420 But I think the truth of it is for many people who are in that situation where they're, you
00:30:44.800 know, they have type two diabetes, they're overweight.
00:30:46.960 Um, I think they go through bouts and spurts of really trying and not necessarily achieving
00:30:51.720 the success they want.
00:30:52.640 We also have to sort of bake in this idea that people, I think have different amounts
00:30:56.680 of willpower and I don't know that you can take much credit for it.
00:30:59.220 So like, I tend to have very high willpower.
00:31:02.720 Um, did I do anything to hone that?
00:31:06.020 Like, isn't that kind of just like why I have brown eyes too?
00:31:09.080 Like I'm the height that I am.
00:31:11.080 I, all of the characteristics about me are largely innate and I view kind of willpower
00:31:16.080 as one of those.
00:31:17.060 Do you not think it's, I'm sure there's an element of it that's genetic.
00:31:19.860 Do you not think it's also a muscle that you train?
00:31:23.160 Like you train yourself.
00:31:24.740 But why do I train it?
00:31:26.720 You, huh?
00:31:28.420 Well, I, I.
00:31:29.160 What gives me the desire to, I agree that you practice this stuff.
00:31:32.640 Yeah.
00:31:32.920 And I put it into practice in many things I do, but I, I, this is one of those areas
00:31:37.020 where I really debate free will.
00:31:38.700 Like I'm, I mean, yeah, yes, yes, yes, I, I have, I have, I could spend hours talking
00:31:45.140 about it and demonstrating my ignorance.
00:31:47.400 Um, but, but when I examine things in myself, I tend to appreciate that I can't take credit
00:31:55.640 for much.
00:31:56.860 Luck has sort of given me, you know, maybe genes that are less susceptible, a stronger desire
00:32:04.260 to do a certain thing.
00:32:05.380 Anyway, all of this is a long winded way of saying, I think there's an enormous personal
00:32:08.480 toll of these things.
00:32:10.860 Um, I think there's, you know, a lot of denigration of, of self-worth and things of that nature.
00:32:15.580 And, and I think, look, you see this, you see this bubbling to the surface in the discussion
00:32:21.240 around GLP one agonists and their derivative drugs, right?
00:32:24.680 Which is the morality associated with using them, right?
00:32:28.800 Is it?
00:32:29.180 Those are the weight loss drugs.
00:32:30.540 That's correct.
00:32:31.080 These are drugs like, um, I don't know if they have the same names in the UK.
00:32:34.460 Yeah.
00:32:34.760 Ozempic, Monjaro.
00:32:36.560 Um, there are newer versions of these drugs that are not even yet approved that look even
00:32:41.660 more potent, right?
00:32:43.080 So, so semaglutide, which is the drug that, um, is Ozempic or Wegovi is actually the third
00:32:49.300 generation of those, of that drug.
00:32:51.600 Monjaro or Trisepatide was the fourth.
00:32:53.900 And then the next one coming out is called Retitrutide looks even better than the fourth
00:32:59.320 one, which is better than the third one, which was a log form better than the second
00:33:03.340 one.
00:33:03.760 Point is these drugs aren't going anywhere in the pipeline of these, there's 20 of these
00:33:07.560 things in the pipeline.
00:33:08.980 Um, but I think as a society, there's a lot to wrestle with because the cost of these drugs
00:33:14.000 is significant.
00:33:14.880 But I also think deep down, a lot of people think, is it, you know, you know, there's a
00:33:22.300 judgment that comes with from some, I think when it comes to their use case, of course,
00:33:26.460 yeah.
00:33:26.820 Sorry.
00:33:27.600 Finish your point.
00:33:28.460 I was just going to say that there's the economic consideration of them as well, which
00:33:31.480 everybody brings up.
00:33:32.840 Pizza.
00:33:33.220 How much of this is because I've noticed something.
00:33:36.820 So I can't drink alcohol because I just can't, I can't control myself when I'm on my alcohol.
00:33:41.580 And if I have one that will lead to many more.
00:33:44.800 I know that that's why I don't drink.
00:33:47.360 How much of this is addiction?
00:33:49.340 Because I've noticed as somebody who has a personality which is obsessive and can, if
00:33:54.440 unchecked, can lead to addiction.
00:33:56.400 I've noticed that when I eat things here, I get a little kick that I don't get back at
00:34:02.960 home.
00:34:04.020 And in particular, when you look at fast food, when you look at sugar, how much of this
00:34:08.880 accompanies putting things in their products, which they know will mean people will get
00:34:16.000 addicted to them and will come back again and again and again.
00:34:20.360 And again, I don't think it's a moral thing.
00:34:22.260 I think it's them just trying to boost profits.
00:34:24.580 Yep.
00:34:25.400 So a couple of things.
00:34:26.640 I think that I try to not use the word addiction because it has such technical meanings and I
00:34:32.300 don't want to get into the nuances of what constitutes a true addiction because there's
00:34:38.000 a very clear clinical definition, but the point is what's important, not the terminology.
00:34:44.020 So if we bracket that the word addiction may or may not apply to food for the average person,
00:34:49.960 your point is very well taken.
00:34:52.940 And I would argue that any American who has spent any time in Europe, and I love being in
00:35:00.040 Europe, will explain exactly what you've just said, which is we have the reverse experience,
00:35:05.460 right? When we go to Europe, whether we're in Italy, it doesn't matter. You could be in
00:35:09.560 the food central of Europe. You just don't tend to overeat the same way that you can in
00:35:14.740 America. And I have spent untold hours asking people, why do you think that is? What is it
00:35:23.780 in the food in Europe that seems to be different? I have never been able to find empirical evidence
00:35:28.780 to support my assertion. It's all anecdotal, but you are yet one more person to kind of ring that
00:35:35.000 anecdote true. I think there's a lot of things, right? I do agree that in Europe, the portion sizes
00:35:40.320 are so much smaller. And I think that there is, this has been an observed phenomenon that's been
00:35:45.460 done in studies. When you give a person a portion size, they will often eat past their limits. So there
00:35:51.560 was the experiments done many years ago where they gave people these drinks, right? So it was kind of
00:35:56.600 like a milkshake sort of thing. And they had one group drinking one drink and another group drinking
00:36:01.920 another, but the one group was drinking it where it was being refilled at a level that allowed it
00:36:07.900 to constantly stay higher than it would have been if they were just drinking it. And of course,
00:36:11.780 the question is, are people stopping when they're full or are they stopping when they finish? And of
00:36:17.580 course, these people were drinking more than the other people, meaning that the people who had a
00:36:21.440 refilling drink. So that would suggest that if you put more food on a person's plate,
00:36:26.020 they're going to eat more. So portion sizes matter. Most people have talked a lot about the
00:36:30.780 differences in wheat quality between Europe and the UK, pardon me, between Europe and between
00:36:35.600 North America. And obviously a big difference here is we use glyphosate on our wheat. In Europe,
00:36:40.920 it is not used. And so it's really not to me about the GMO distinction, but it is clear that there
00:36:46.580 might be a difference in the use of glyphosate. For example, people talk about how they just
00:36:50.940 don't feel as bloated when they eat things there. You've already alluded to the fact that less sugar
00:36:56.020 tends to be used, but also it's like, think of how smaller the cans and bottles are and stuff like
00:37:01.120 that. Right. So. Oh yeah, man. We went for a meal with somebody the other day and you just go to the
00:37:07.120 fridge and there's a liter bottle of Coke, a liter. And that's like, that's the minimum size you can get.
00:37:14.920 Yeah. That's fucking crazy. Yeah. So I just, I think, I think there are just so many differences
00:37:20.840 and, um, yeah, part of it is just, it's our culture here. It's everything is bigger. Everything is
00:37:29.100 better. I mean, but it's everything, right? It's like, it's, it's, our cities are bigger. They're
00:37:33.540 more spread out. Uh, our lane, I think, look at the difference in the, I'm sure you've thought of this
00:37:38.640 if you've driven here, when you drive in Europe versus when you drive in the United States, like when you
00:37:44.020 drive in the United States, you can shut your eyes half the time. The lanes are so big. When you are
00:37:48.840 driving in Europe, you have to be switched on. There is no futzing around. There's no drifting in
00:37:54.040 and out of lanes. Like everything is compact. So I just think there's a lot of this going on. Um, but
00:38:02.060 to your question, I agree completely that food science is all about engineering a product that
00:38:10.820 tastes as good as possible and gets you to buy as much as possible. And moving on to type two diabetes.
00:38:19.380 Let me just stick with this quickly on. Do you think you, it's very clear from the way you're
00:38:27.340 talking about it, Peter, the, the, the, you know, we all, I think would agree that capitalism is
00:38:32.960 a great system, but it comes with externalities. It comes with trade-offs. And I guess the question
00:38:40.580 is, do you think this can be solved by the market? Because like when we're in LA, you can get very
00:38:47.660 good food in LA. It's very expensive, but if you want to eat very clean, you can eat very clean. It is
00:38:53.120 available. Do you think this can be solved simply by the fact that, look, there's very cheap food and
00:38:59.620 if, and it's filling and whatever. And if that's what you want, you can have that. Or if you choose
00:39:05.120 to allocate a different portion of your family budget to food, because you care about health,
00:39:10.760 there's a supermarket that only sells really good stuff. That's all organic and all this and that.
00:39:14.860 Do you think this gets sold by the market or not?
00:39:16.800 So this is complicated because you can't disentangle politics from this. And I think it's,
00:39:28.540 it's very counterintuitive to people, to myself included, how non-linear the effects of agricultural
00:39:36.520 subsidies are on what we ultimately consume. Now, if, if I were czar, what I would, but I also had
00:39:47.560 infinite time where I could do multiple experiments. So I had kind of like a parallel universe.
00:39:52.020 The first thing I would do is just see what happened when I removed all crop subsidies.
00:39:58.500 I don't believe that's the answer, by the way. In fact, I don't think that will get us where we want,
00:40:02.720 but it will perturb the system enough. And I would really like to see what would happen,
00:40:06.780 right? So right now in the U S corn and soy are the dominant crops and they are heavily subsidized.
00:40:14.540 Of course, corn is the backdrop for most sugar, right? Most sugar in the United States is not
00:40:20.860 cane sugar. It's high fructose corn syrup, obviously derived from corn. I would be very curious to just see
00:40:27.780 what the economic ramifications would be of a complete elimination of subsidies.
00:40:34.220 Then what I'd want to do is perturb the system further in the direction that I would want things
00:40:39.520 to go, right? Everybody knows, you know, show me how a person gets paid and I will show you how they act.
00:40:47.080 And so if we wanted to create a state where fruits and vegetables, whole foods,
00:40:53.820 you know, regenerative agriculture as a concept, which we didn't talk about, but we could
00:40:59.240 became the norm, which meant it wasn't just available to rich people in Beverly Hills,
00:41:04.400 but it was available to everybody, right? Anybody who was trying to put food on their table could
00:41:09.980 acquire this food. What would have to be true? And I would basically work backwards from that desired
00:41:16.900 state to what are the economic incentives that need to be in place? So in this sense, even though
00:41:23.240 I don't, I think many people don't like the idea of the government putting their finger on the scale.
00:41:28.940 I think this is one of those examples that, as you said, if you just let capitalism run amok,
00:41:34.200 it's going to purely maximize profits and it has no consideration for the externality of human health.
00:41:40.000 What I think instead we want is modified capitalism. We want all the tools of capitalism
00:41:45.440 and the innovation, but the government probably needs to have their thumb on the scale in a way
00:41:49.880 that puts a guidance system on that missile. And currently that guidance system is broken.
00:41:57.400 And I believe it's in large part due to how food is subsidized today. I would just want to do the
00:42:04.540 experiments of changing those subsidies in a way that would produce a different desired outcome.
00:42:10.300 So, and that's not a satisfying answer because I'm not telling you what those changes need to be,
00:42:14.820 but it's a, because I'm quite ignorant of it at this point. Uh, and B, I'm not sure anybody fully knows.
00:42:21.600 And so if we look at, for instance, type two diabetes and you talk about it in the book. Now,
00:42:28.240 when I think about type two diabetes, I go, Oh, someone's just quite big that it needs to be dealt
00:42:33.680 with and blah, blah, blah. It's not a big deal. But you argue something else in the book that this
00:42:38.400 is a very, and it actually opened my eyes to the dangers of being obese and morbidly obese.
00:42:45.080 And there is a whole host of issues that come with this particular condition.
00:42:49.600 Yeah. So in the book, I talk about the four horsemen of death. Um, and the reason I talk
00:42:54.540 about them is that anybody who's listening to this podcast, like they're probably going to die from
00:42:59.480 one of the four horsemen. There's about an 80% chance. If you're listening to us right now,
00:43:03.120 you're about to die. And so, um, and part of that is due to the success of medicine 2.0,
00:43:11.400 right? Like you're not likely to die giving birth to a child anymore. You're not likely to die of
00:43:18.380 an infection. You're not likely to die of cholera. You're not likely to die of influenza. Like the
00:43:23.820 things that killed our ancestors 200 years ago are not the things that kill us. So now we die of
00:43:29.020 cardiovascular disease and cerebrovascular disease, heart attacks and strokes, cancer,
00:43:34.180 dementia, and neurodegenerative diseases, and these cluster or spectrum of metabolic diseases
00:43:41.140 that include everything from hyperinsulinemia, uh, insulin resistance, obesity, fatty liver disease,
00:43:49.260 and type two diabetes. Now, what's interesting is that that fourth horseman by itself doesn't kill
00:43:54.780 that many people. So if you, if you actually just look at death certificates and say how many people
00:44:00.780 on it has, when you, it's really funny filling out a death certificate is a complicated, it's much more
00:44:05.100 complicated than you would think. You have to list the primary cause of death and then all the
00:44:09.420 contributing factors. Uh, and it's very, you have to be very, very technically correct when you do this.
00:44:14.020 So if you were to just look at the 2.6 million death certificates that were filled out last year in the
00:44:18.540 United States, very few of them would have type two diabetes as the number one proximate cause of death.
00:44:24.780 It's when you look at how many of them have cardiovascular disease, cancer, dementia,
00:44:30.280 all these other diseases where a contributing factor is indeed type two diabetes. And the reason
00:44:35.400 is type two diabetes contributes so much to each of those diseases by effectively doubling your risk
00:44:42.860 of each of the other three horsemen. In fact, if you have type two diabetes, your risk of all cause
00:44:49.140 mortality goes up about 40 or 50%. That means if you take an individual with type two
00:44:54.640 diabetes, their risk of dying in the subsequent year from any cause is 50% higher than someone
00:45:01.900 without type two diabetes. And do we know the reasons for that?
00:45:06.620 Yeah. We think that the majority of it comes down to what happens when glucose is dysregulated because,
00:45:14.060 you know, that's what type two diabetes is. It's a disease of glucose dysregulation.
00:45:18.100 It's a mismatch between how much glucose is in the bloodstream and how much that person is able to
00:45:25.120 dispose of it, which is just a technical word for put that glucose into their muscles and into their
00:45:30.420 liver and keep their blood glucose levels normal. And if the blood glucose levels are elevated and they
00:45:36.200 don't have to be elevated very much, I mean, to put this in perspective, the three of us are sitting
00:45:40.540 here right now talking. We probably have a grand total of five teaspoons of glucose in our entire
00:45:47.620 circulation. That would be normal. If that number were increased to seven from five, we have type two
00:45:55.560 diabetes. Wow. I mean, it's a subtle difference. In other words, the body's capacity to maintain
00:46:02.060 homeostasis in this regard is incredible. But what are the consequences of that? Well, the more glucose you
00:46:07.680 have in your bloodstream, the more glucose sticks to various proteins in the body. And that leads to
00:46:13.240 certain issues that result in microvascular damage. So that you've probably heard of people with type
00:46:18.580 two diabetes, they're more likely to have impaired vision. They're more likely to require amputations,
00:46:24.340 get kidney disease, cardiovascular disease, small vessel disease in the brain. And then the other thing
00:46:29.620 that happens is you have higher levels of insulin because you have more insulin trying to put
00:46:33.980 that glucose away. And then higher levels of insulin tend to be more damaging to larger blood vessels.
00:46:40.020 So it's a complicated cascade that involves the elevated levels of glucose, the elevated levels of
00:46:46.160 insulin that initially are made by the body, but ultimately usually supplied by the exogenous insulin
00:46:51.260 that they have to give themselves. And then you have a whole host of other factors, including the
00:46:55.440 inflammatory cascade that comes from the excess adipose tissue, meaning excess fat cells produce excess
00:47:03.340 inflammation, cytokines that also lead to damage of organs. And there was something in the book that
00:47:09.220 I found incredibly fascinating where you were talking about tumors, cancerous tumors, and the effect
00:47:14.860 that glucose had on them. And if you've got excess glucose in your body, I was there thinking, well,
00:47:20.880 what's your tumors are growing basically quicker than normal? Yeah, I think the bigger issue for the
00:47:26.300 cancer cells is probably not even the glucose. Although yes, cancer tumors rely almost exclusively
00:47:32.760 on glucose. It's the other growth signals that come with high glucose, namely insulin. So I would argue
00:47:40.240 that it's the hyperinsulinemia more than the hyperglycemia that is probably the more important
00:47:47.560 relationship link between type 2 diabetes and the increase in the prevalence of cancer.
00:47:54.040 Peter, I want to talk about before, you know, in this interview at the end about some of the answers
00:48:00.020 to these things at an individual level. But before we do, one thing we really want to talk about that
00:48:04.520 you don't talk about in the book is testosterone. We know that men's testosterone is going down
00:48:10.000 generation by generation. First of all, do we know why that is?
00:48:15.920 There's probably a couple of reasons, but the data would suggest that the most dominant explanation for
00:48:22.200 why basically a 30-year-old man today has the same testosterone as a 50-year-old man did about 40
00:48:31.440 years ago. Wow.
00:48:32.640 So that's a demonstrable fact. The best explanation for that is probably the increase in body fat that
00:48:42.360 has come along for the ride in that period of time. And with that increase in body fat comes an increase
00:48:47.920 in inflammation. And with that increase in inflammation, you basically are going to make
00:48:52.920 less testosterone. So it's impairing the body's ability to make testosterone. And then also the
00:48:57.980 other thing that happens with more body fat is more of the testosterone that is made is shunted into
00:49:02.940 estrogen. So the what's called aromatization of testosterone into estrogen is a natural process.
00:49:11.280 But the balance, the more adipose tissue, the more fat tissue you have, the balance of that shifts
00:49:16.300 more that way. There are probably other factors as well, though. For example, we only make testosterone
00:49:21.560 when we sleep. I mean, that's where we have the biggest pulsatile amount of luteinizing hormone and
00:49:27.280 follicle stimulating hormone, which tell the body to make testosterone. So you could argue, although I
00:49:31.940 don't think I have great data for this, that anything that's going to disrupt sleep or degrade quality of
00:49:37.960 sleep, especially deep sleep, might have a negative impact as well. So that could be stress. That could
00:49:43.840 be, you know, phones, things that kind of get in the way of people's lives. But I think that most of
00:49:51.800 this effect is probably explained by the increase in body fat. Really interesting. And the question that
00:49:57.240 I was wondering about with all of that, we know testosterone affects behavior. And you're not a
00:50:05.420 political guy. You don't get involved in this stuff. But I do think it's an interesting question
00:50:08.600 to think about. This must be affecting how people vote, what policies they support, and therefore
00:50:16.440 the culture of our society, right?
00:50:19.460 I honestly have never thought about it that way. So are you arguing that lower, on aggregate,
00:50:25.760 lower testosterone would lead to a shift in one way or the other politically?
00:50:30.860 Well, when people have less testosterone, they show up differently in the world. They respond
00:50:37.460 to threats differently. They care about different things. They feel more powerful or less powerful.
00:50:42.800 They have a different locus of control, all of these things, right? So forgive me for kind
00:50:48.320 of being as blunt about it as I am, but a culture in which sensitivity and, you know, being extra
00:50:54.760 careful and not offending people, et cetera, seems to be taking off, frankly, or has at least done over
00:51:01.260 time. It doesn't seem like much of a leap to go, well, if we all have less testosterone, wouldn't
00:51:07.500 that be the consequence?
00:51:09.040 Yeah, super interesting thought. I never gave it thought. I don't know. You'd have to put it in
00:51:15.620 the context of all the things that change. The other thing is, even though testosterone levels are
00:51:20.920 lower than they've ever been, testosterone replacement is also higher than it's ever
00:51:25.400 been. So what we don't really know is what is the realized level of testosterone today in the
00:51:32.220 population relative to a decade ago or two decades ago when some of these behaviors, you know, started
00:51:39.580 to take hold. Because if natural testosterone is lower, which it undeniably is, but it's being
00:51:45.740 supplemented and corrected, then maybe it's a wash and there are other...
00:51:50.620 But I'm guessing college students aren't taking testosterone replacement, right?
00:51:56.400 I do believe some are, but I don't know how prevalent it is.
00:51:59.580 Yeah.
00:52:00.100 But you get my point.
00:52:01.140 Yeah, it's an interesting point.
00:52:02.960 Yeah. And the other thing I was going to ask you is, this is a question from my wife who wants
00:52:08.440 me to eat less red meat. It's something that kind of is the universal meme that red meat is bad for
00:52:16.140 you. When I went for dinner at your house, there was quite a lot of red meat on the table from my...
00:52:20.840 Now, Jordan was there, to be fair, so you kind of had to do that. What's your take on that as
00:52:24.940 someone who's very health conscious?
00:52:27.000 Yeah, this is one of those enduring examples of really, really bad science that just never dies.
00:52:35.900 So this idea that red meat is somehow harmful really began its hold during the 1980s when people
00:52:50.840 began to be aware of cholesterol and the role cholesterol played in heart disease. And of
00:52:57.480 course, red meat at the time was being compared to white meat. And so back in the early to mid-1980s,
00:53:04.180 there was really a push to move people away from beef to chicken. And the idea was, well,
00:53:09.980 chicken contains less saturated fat and therefore, on balance, you would have a lower level of
00:53:16.660 cholesterol. And that's true depending on how much of it you eat. What has given that idea more legs
00:53:25.060 is some of the epidemiology that has demonstrated, though not consistently, that people who eat
00:53:31.720 red meat have higher risks of, you know, type 2 diabetes or cardiovascular disease than people who
00:53:38.080 avoid red meat. So on the surface, you might be listening to this and thinking, well, that seems like
00:53:42.740 a case closed, no-brainer. But the problem is epidemiology, especially when the hazard ratios are
00:53:49.100 relatively small, is so fraught with errors, right? Epidemiology only identifies associations,
00:53:55.360 but it can never identify causation. And so one of the biggest challenges with the red meat
00:54:01.280 epidemiology stuff is that people consuming red meat and people not consuming red meat tend to be
00:54:08.420 proxies on average for very different behaviors. So for example, people who consume red meat on average
00:54:15.920 will tend to consume more processed foods. In fact, much of the red meat that they consume is in the
00:54:20.760 form of processed red meat, like, you know, gas station jerky sticks and things like that.
00:54:25.300 People who go out of their way to avoid red meat tend to engage in many behaviors that are pro-health.
00:54:32.560 They tend to exercise a lot more. They smoke a lot less. They engage in other food behaviors,
00:54:39.520 such as the consumption of fruits and vegetables, to a much higher extent. Now, what's interesting is when
00:54:45.040 you strip all of those things away and you normalize for, say, vegetable consumption,
00:54:50.480 that cancer-causing effect of red meat completely vanishes, right? So in other words, when you just
00:54:56.840 say, let's compare people who eat red meat to people who don't, you're going to get that difference in
00:55:01.580 risk. But yet when you start to correct for everything, including servings of vegetables in a day,
00:55:07.780 all of a sudden the harm, the supposed harm of red meat goes away. I think there's more nuance to it
00:55:13.480 than that, frankly. And I think it also comes down to the type of red meat you're going to consume.
00:55:17.620 And I don't think all red meat is created equal, just as I don't think all plants. We've already
00:55:21.460 talked about how in Europe, there's clearly something different between the bread and pasta
00:55:26.560 in Europe and the bread and pasta in the United States. And it's not a stretch to assume then
00:55:31.420 that not all meat is the same. And I don't, you know, I mean, so much has been said about it.
00:55:35.380 I don't need to harp upon it, but I think there's a fundamental difference between consuming
00:55:39.140 farmed red meat and consuming, you know, grass-fed red meat that is free of antibiotics and hormones.
00:55:46.220 Now, again, this gets back to a problem you raised earlier, which is that's a great thing to say when
00:55:51.040 you're, you know, well-to-do enough that you can afford to buy those things and not everybody can.
00:55:56.280 So that said, I still think that the majority of the literature condemning red meat is highly flawed.
00:56:05.480 I would say that if a person consumes red meat, they should probably make an effort to
00:56:10.140 invest a little bit more and get the red meat that's probably of the highest quality.
00:56:14.140 And this may be an incredibly stupid and factually incorrect question, but I have
00:56:18.520 heard a lot of talk and read a lot of talk about the fact, the idea that actually there are several
00:56:24.920 types of human beings and some are supposed to eat meat and others are not. Is there any truth to
00:56:31.520 any of this? I have a really hard time kind of accepting that. I mean, I think the basis for
00:56:37.380 that line of reasoning stems from the fact that, you know, you can trace our ancestors to different
00:56:44.580 parts of the globe, right? So my ancestors all came from Africa. Yours came from Northern Europe.
00:56:50.660 You know, there's someone whose ancestors came from Asia. And the idea was, well, my ancestors would
00:56:55.340 have ate more of this and less of it. And therefore, would I be more naturally suited to that?
00:57:01.660 Again, I've just never seen compelling evidence to support what is otherwise a very lovely story.
00:57:07.740 And so before we move on to our final question, there's the average person who's sitting there
00:57:13.460 watching this or listening to this and they're thinking, right, this is really interesting and
00:57:17.260 this is great, but how do I become healthier as a person? What can I do to improve my health and to
00:57:24.140 live a longer and most importantly, not just longer, but as you said in the book, healthier life?
00:57:30.400 Well, it's actually interesting. It's the one thing we didn't talk about today. I mean,
00:57:33.140 we did a lot of things we didn't talk about, but I think the most important thing that we didn't
00:57:36.420 talk about, but it's okay because there are three of the 17 chapters in that book are about it,
00:57:40.320 is exercise. And I think that... Yeah, let's not focus on that. What else can I do? No,
00:57:46.380 I'm joking. Carry on. Honestly... Well, I have to make an effort. God, no, no.
00:57:51.240 Well, but for some people, myself included, food requires more effort than exercise. So
00:57:57.260 everybody has their own cross to bear in this regard. And for me, food is the biggest cross
00:58:02.500 to bear by far. Sleep comes naturally to me if I do the right steps, meaning it comes naturally to me
00:58:08.460 to be disciplined about sleep hygiene. It comes very naturally to me to want to exercise. I get the
00:58:14.260 reward in the short term of actually feeling good. And for whatever reason, it connects with my
00:58:19.600 cognition where I can tie my ability to do something now to what I did in the gym yesterday.
00:58:26.240 But food is very difficult. Food is a never ending struggle for me. If left to my own devices,
00:58:31.380 I would eat French fries, Kentucky fried chicken and pizza all day, every day. I love it so, so much.
00:58:38.420 You two would get on.
00:58:39.160 Yeah, we do. You know, you should come around one time, Peter. Let's just go.
00:58:42.840 Do you know, the last time I was in the UK, I made a point to have fish and chips every single day.
00:58:49.380 I was like, you know what? I'm only here for a week. Like, I'm just going to go to hell.
00:58:52.520 You absolute psycho.
00:58:53.440 Yeah. You see, and that's why you're here.
00:58:56.620 There's a connection.
00:58:57.480 You couldn't stop eating fish and chips. Couldn't stop. But I think that the majority of the health
00:59:06.560 span benefits that we speak of, both mind and body are going to come from exercise. So if I could,
00:59:12.300 if someone said, look, Peter, just direct me to one thing, I would direct them to, hey, read the
00:59:17.640 chapters on exercise and figure out a way to sort of balance your exercise portfolio around the right
00:59:24.300 amount of strength training, the right amount of cardio training, the right amount of movement
00:59:29.600 training. And I think that that's, on a singular level, going to pay higher dividends.
00:59:35.620 It's been a fantastic interview. Thank you so much for coming on the show, Peter. Final question
00:59:39.840 is always the same. What's the one thing that we're not talking about that we really should be?
00:59:44.720 Yeah. Even knowing you're going to ask that question, I still can't come up with a great
00:59:47.860 answer. So I would say, what's the opposite side of the AI bet when it comes to health, right? So
00:59:55.060 most people that are talking about AI as it pertains to health are taking, I would say,
01:00:02.680 the most optimistic view, right? Which is, and let's give them reason for saying that, right? So
01:00:09.460 at the time of our recording, a Nobel Prize was just awarded. The Nobel Prize in Chemistry was just
01:00:15.640 awarded to the folks at Google that developed AlphaFold, right? So this was a remarkable AI
01:00:21.880 technology that did something, I don't know, if you told me this was possible two years ago, I would
01:00:26.940 have said, I don't think so. And I would have been wrong, which is, and this is nuanced, but it's an AI
01:00:34.220 that was able to predict the folding structure of a protein only knowing the primary sequence of amino
01:00:39.880 acids. And you might say, well, why is that interesting? Well, that's interesting in that it's a much,
01:00:44.120 much quicker way to help scientists predict what type of molecule would fit into a receptor, and
01:00:52.140 that's effectively what pharmacology is. So that now takes the first step of drug discovery and makes
01:00:57.980 it really, really fast. So based on that, I think many people are now saying, in 10 years, we are going
01:01:04.620 to be immortal. Because when you have an AI that can solve that problem today, and you look at the pace
01:01:11.340 at which AI is growing, what is it going to be solving in 10 years? It's going to solve aging. So I've met with
01:01:17.920 many people, some of whom I think are incredibly intelligent, who say, look, in 10 years, it doesn't
01:01:23.120 matter. Just don't die for the next 10 years, and it's all going to be okay. Because in 10 years, AI will have
01:01:28.020 solved death. And I think while that might be a slightly extreme view, virtually everybody I talk with in
01:01:35.700 healthcare says, AI is going to completely change our lives for the better with respect to health.
01:01:43.180 And I just think it would be interesting to hear the bear case on that. And what's the less optimistic
01:01:48.060 case? Not that AI is necessarily harmful, but that aging is a much more complicated problem than some
01:01:53.480 of these standard engineering problems. And while what AlphaFold did is incredible at the chemical level,
01:01:59.260 it still doesn't solve, like, how do you unfold proteins in my body that have folded irreversibly?
01:02:07.860 So we should keep drinking our own urine for the meantime.
01:02:11.180 Exactly.
01:02:12.880 To stave off aging.
01:02:14.040 Just take the hedge, assume that, yeah. Keep exercising, yeah.
01:02:18.060 I literally can't think of anything worse. I actually would rather die than drink my own urine
01:02:23.200 for the rest of my life. Peter, I don't know why we ended on that. Thank you so much for coming on the
01:02:27.680 show. It's been absolutely awesome. I would, not only would, I actually do recommend your book to
01:02:32.260 everybody because it was so transformational for me. It's really, really, I really hope more people
01:02:37.640 read it because, as I said, I was somebody who was not paying too much attention to my health. I was
01:02:42.820 busy with work. I sort of thought I was very healthy anyway. It's been genuinely eye-opening
01:02:47.260 and transformational. I think if more people read it, the world will be healthier. So all power to you.
01:02:53.140 I hope people buy Outlive and read it. It's a fantastic book and keep up the great work.
01:02:57.120 Thank you so much, guys. Appreciate it.
01:02:58.600 All right. Head on over to Substack where we ask Peter your questions.
01:03:03.480 Do you have any suggestions for legislators or educators who are trying to break the insatiable
01:03:08.860 appetite for sugar, fat, and salt, especially in lower-income groups?