War Expert Debunks Gaza Lies - John Spencer
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Length
1 hour and 19 minutes
Words per minute
174.18321
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3
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11
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Summary
In this episode, we speak with John Spencers, the Director of the Modern War Institute and the Chair of the Urban Warfare Studies Program at the Maariv Policy Forum, who is one of the world s leading experts in urban warfare and urban warfare research. John is also the author of three books and has served in the Israeli military for more than 25 years.
Transcript
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I'm fine if people are anti-war I'm not fine if people are anti-fact nobody's ever built 300 miles
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of tunnels underneath their civilians for the sole purpose of using their civilians as a shield and
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as a sacrifice every individual in Gaza could fit in Hamas's tunnels with ease why is it that Israel
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is held to not one double standard but a whole list of double standards in war that no other
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nation in history has ever been held to what is the goal now by pursuing this conflict in this way
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alienates a whole generation of future western decision makers and that is a reality that
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Israeli politicians have to reckon with surely relax relax this is not an ad I just wanted to
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and so welcome to trigonometry well thanks for having me long time viewer long time fan well appreciate
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that um i you're one of the world's leading experts on urban combat and urban warfare which is why we
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wanted to have you on in the context of what's happening in gaza obviously you messaged me somewhat
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irate after our last couple of interviews on israel with pierce morgan and andrew fox you had a lot of
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disagreements before we get into all of that and your perspective on what's happening and perhaps
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answering some of the questions of those two guests raised that we as non-experts are not able to address
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uh tell everybody a little about your background and what gives you the ability to talk about these
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issues with some authority sure so my name is john spencer i'm the chair of urban warfare studies
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at the madacy policy forum also executive director of the urban warfare institute i spent 25 years
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active duty u.s army as an infantry soldier and then officer two combat tours to iraq did the invasion
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and then i was there during the height of the sectarian violence in 2008 in baghdad to include the battle of
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sadr city i don't rest on my own experiences though i've been studying urban warfare for over a decade
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i started in the pentagon actually in a research group and advisory role to our top four-star general
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of the u.s army in the pentagon after that tour where we were looking at large cities like mega cities
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i i moved to west point uh the united states military academy where i was teaching strategy leadership
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military tactics in echelon but really that strategy class has helped me a lot since then
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i started a research center called the modern war institute i was the co-founder of that
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and started writing a lot about urban warfare now i have three books i started a podcast although i
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don't consider myself a podcaster not that's a bad thing uh i've been doing it for over six years
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interviewing top commanders of past battles technical experts veterans um i've started in research role
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though since 2018 really i've been traveling the world going into combat zones
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using different research methodologies like ethnographic you know basically getting on the ground in
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combat areas and recording what's happening and then the lessons that other people can take from it
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so i write case studies on past wars so i've covered most urban battles of the past from stalingrad
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to most of the battles of urban of war ii actual walking the ground of battlegrounds i went into
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ukraine weeks after russia withdrew from kiev and been into ukraine four times azerbaijan to study their
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wars india and then israel of course so i've been to israel now five times four times in bed with the idea
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actually with the commanders with the division commanders and others i've interviewed the prime
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minister three times the defense minister the head of the idea the chief of staff multiple numerous
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commanders observed them in the field and and i didn't start studying war on october 7th and that's
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unique in some aspects and to other people who we call who have opinions i didn't start studying
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israel on october 7th and i surely heck didn't start studying war i had been going in and out of israel
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for years writing case studies writing research reports on their past urban battles from the 1973
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battle of suez city the first intifada second intifada ancient jerusalem battle etc so i consider
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myself knowledgeable in urban warfare but to be honest in order to understand gaza you have to
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understand a little bit of history on what's come before and i've studied a lot of urban battles and i can
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help provide people like it's really weird what you're saying about israel here and all the double
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standards but you also have to have an understanding of things like civilian harm mitigation which are
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the steps that militaries have taken even over the last 20 or 30 years to protect civilians and i've been
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arguing with groups in the united nations i've spoken multiple times at the united nations and with
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u.n humanitarian groups about how do you help protect civilians in urban warfare but also the law so then you
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have that part where you have to understand the the full nature of the laws of war from what is the
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humanitarian requirements of the attacker to like what what munitions can you and can you not use
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and i've been writing podcasting and researching all of those topics so i think i have some information
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to share about what's going on in gaza but also to give people the framework because we have a lot of
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people that say things either that are just wrong and and we can talk about some of those people or
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just that are not informed by an actually research methodology well it's great to have you on the
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show because of your knowledge and expertise i was going to say i'm surprised how much hair you have
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given that you've probably been tearing a lot of it out with the way that this conflict's been covered
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um so broad perspective big picture in your opinion what is the correct frame and way of looking at
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what's happening in gaza and israel's war in gaza that people who don't understand military conflict
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particularly urban warfare probably don't understand absolutely this is an amazing first question is to
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the framework is war right so although hamas is a non-state actor the law of war actually
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covers an internationally armed conflict or a non-internationally armed conflict and i know you had
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um natasha holsdorf to to try to explain the framework of the legal the what the world has
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been doing though has been applying a counter-terrorism counter-insurgency framework to hamas
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because there is a heuristic of you know this is what people know this is whether they understand
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iraq afghanistan the battles against isis they keep considering hamas a terrorist fight a counter-terrorism
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fight and that's not the framework that's not in any way the framework on october 7th the terror army
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that was hamas's military and other terrorist groups and a whole lot of civilians from gaza
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invaded southern israel israel waged war in accordance with the framework of nations against hamas as the
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political and military apparatus of the area of gaza although it's not a nation so this isn't a nation
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on nation conflict it's a nation against a non-state actor but also very unique in the context
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of it unlike others right all these other frameworks that people talk about and i and this is really
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where i've been playing whack-a-mole to people's analogies people's comparisons is like why are you
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comparing this to iraq battles why are you comparing this to isis battles i mean those are all insurgencies
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within nations where the u.s or others are helping even a host nation fight an insurgency
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it's the wrong framework so at the at the very top is war you have to frame it in in the way of war
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now what how do people compare it and i can give you all kinds of comparisons that you probably haven't
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heard of that are more applicable to gaza than anybody else is using and it's crazy and i've tried to
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help people understand that from the size of the military the terrain of gaza there are some very
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unprecedented aspects of this where there is no comparison and i can make really bold claims i'm
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sure we'll talk about them like this has never happened in war before so explain all of this john
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what are you talking about uh what makes this conflict unique what are some of the particular
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challenges that the the israeli defense force faces what are some of the contentious issues that
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people keep claiming that you don't agree with well i don't know if we have enough time to go through
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all the contentious issues right uh so the the number one things let's talk about the things that are
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unique in war gaza gaza is a very unique situation hamas so unlike any other comparison gaza is a small
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area relatively it's 25 miles long and sorry i don't do the kilometers 25 miles long five to seven
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miles wide it's a really relatively small area but it actually has 24 cities it has multiple cities of
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over 600 000 if not a million talking about gaza city it's not a battle it's a war but i can't find
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any other situation again because i've studied urban warfare for over a decade and i have a little
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military service myself where the enemy defender has prepared the ground for 20 years for that battle
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most urban battles from stalingrad to akin to huay all of these things are meeting engagements where
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the enemy gets inside the urban area or is there and then for a short amount of time prepares it for a
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battle and we can talk about some of the numbers of previous battles but the fact that hamas spent
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billions of dollars and prepared every bit of gaza for war is unique and that means if you're an
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attacker again if you just take the word israel out of this and give the context of the war there is no
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parallel there is no parallel to the 300 to 400 miles of tunnels underneath every urban area in gaza
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and connecting them all there are tunnels around the world and i've studied the vietnam war from you know
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the tunnels of kuji to the tunnels currently in north korea and china nobody's ever built 300 miles
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of tunnels underneath their civilians for the sole purpose of using their civilians as a shield and as
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a sacrifice that's their strategy i know other people have told talk to you about that is that
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hamas wants its population to be killed that's also unique the nazis didn't do that the japanese didn't
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do that even isis didn't say look my strategy is to get my people killed and then hope that the
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international world community stops israel short of victory the aspect of the size of the enemy
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right i can hopefully we'll talk about a couple of the previous battles that people use to do some
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type of comparison hamas was estimated to be 30 to 40 000 fighters on october 8th that's just hamas
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as you have heard as well there are other combatants that joined the fight in other terrorist
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organizations in gaza you have the palestinian islamic jihad you have lion's den you have like 14 other
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terrorist groups and this is where a major contentious thing i have is people calling
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combatants and civilians in my world and in the law of war there's combatants and there's non-combatants
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a non-combatant can turn themselves into a combatant and more easily than people think you
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don't just have to shoot at the idf or whoever to become a combatant if you hold hostages if you report
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on intelligence if you carry ammunition whole list of reasons but just the size of the enemy in gaza
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in a 20 year prepared defense is what it is is very unique and was going to make the idf challenge
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astronomically hard to even get to the enemy the other aspect um i would would have liked to save
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it till the end is that there's never been a war and you've challenged people on this where the
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civilian population is forced to stay inside of the main combat areas the fact that egypt on october 8th
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said not one person comes out of gaza towards the sinai desert just from a military analysis let
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alone a political analysis i can't find that ever happening right you know in ukraine which i've
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been there three three to five million people left areas massive civilian displacement in areas that
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russia invaded even still today syria every war every war civilians get out of harm's way
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so that the militaries can have their fight and there be safeguarded or even moved to humanitarian
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areas those just the variables that before the war even actually starts before the ground invasion
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starts before the bombing starts every aspect of the war against tamas and gaza is unique and there is no
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no parallel hopefully we'll talk about the double standards but i can keep going because that's the
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other uniqueness as i've studied again i'm currently studying other wars there's no other war where
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israel if you put the word israel in it then there's a whole different standard in what can be done the
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way they assess the war the this day you know the the false claims of war crime genocide all these
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things contrary to what israel does this is all very unique but war is a contest of will so you have to
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get into okay fine but how do you defeat hamas even that standard right so the idea that israel was
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supposed to have a day after plan in gaza in october of 2023 like what okay fine but what's your plan
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that would be like saying okay you know you started against japan and your goal is to defeat japan but
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what's your day after plan no you have to defeat the enemy you have to take his power and then you start
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to work on post-conflict operations every aspect the number one thing that i've been fighting since
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october 8th though has been this this counting obsession it's all a version of which is a great
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book lies damn lies statistics where the goal is to make any number as a big as a number to make it as
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big as a problem and for this war it's been a global problem and it's just repeating the number
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that comes from a terrorist organization as somebody who studies war for a living there's
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never been a single battle in history not a war but a battle in which there is a running daily count
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of how many civilians are dying down to the single digit coming from the enemy with inside the battle
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coming from hamas and the reason that is is because it's impossible to know how many civilians are dying
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in all these other battles i can tell you about week years later that they still don't know how
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many civilians died but the ideal inside of gaza and there's all kinds of these nefarious actors who
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are trying to invent ways to validate hamas's casualty numbers if not say no hamas is not right it's
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actually more it's crazy that this statistical war that this is how many civilians are dying and how
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many combatants are dying there's never been a military in history in any war who's ever been
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asked look i know your your war is just your goals are just but what's your civilian to combatant ratio
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because that's not the way the law works that's not the way war works and you would actually give
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people every terrorist organization around the world a recipe for success i'll just make the number as high
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as you can and it wasn't like this is the first time again if you started studying war on october 7th
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you could probably imagine like all kinds of stuff this is the worst i've ever seen okay have you
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studied any other war have you ever studied any other humanitarian aid operations no okay then i can
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show you other times when it's worse and and worse and worse in the numbers in the chaos even though
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the context of gaza is so unique that the world won't even acknowledge it right so the fact that going
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back to egypt and i just interviewed the minister of defense again to validate that in the last 21
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months not one delegation not one nation especially the uk have ever brought up the target the topic of
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what about egypt couldn't we move the civilians out of harm's way couldn't we get them out of the
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hamas hands and and set up a humanitarian area in the sinai not one delegation brought that up so you
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have to ask the question why is that why is it that israel is held to not one double standard but a
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whole list of double standards in war that no other nation in history has ever been held to or would be
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if it happened to them but john there's a lot to unpack in what you're saying but on the egypt thing
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uh i would imagine what the the pro-palestine people so to speak would say is uh what israel really
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wants i mean piers morgan said this on our show what israel really wants is to displace the
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civilians uh from gaza is to get rid of the palestinian arabs who live there therefore they
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would love nothing more than for those people to flee to other countries and the reason that the
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neighboring countries don't want that to happen a they already have hundreds of thousands of
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palestinians uh from previous eruptions of this conflict uh we know that in many countries to which
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those groups of people have fled that has caused a lot of instability egypt is a poor country with its
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own security problems and so they don't want to play into israel's hands and facilitate israeli
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quote unquote ethnic cleansing on the one hand and on the other hand they do not want to
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suvw german engineered for all yeah so there's there's two things here one i can't help people that have
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bds so not the boycott the vest sanction awful thing that happens against israel but if you have bb
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derangement syndrome and you believe that he's just an you know the nefarious actor that's guiding all
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this or if you have tds trump derangement syndrome i would point like you did recently to somebody
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going well wait a minute during world war ii there's massive population displacement in every war
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actually and you could talk 2020 war of nagarna-karabakh 23 war of nagarna-karabakh ukraine syria yemen
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population displacement is historically exactly what happens to get civilians out of harm's way now if
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you're i'm not you know people want to put me in a bucket of pro-israel or put other people in the in
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the in the bucket of pro-palestine i think that's not the right framework i'm pro-truth and some people
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are anti-israel that becomes a fact they actually don't care about palestinians or the cause so if
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somebody's so adamant that israel just wants to eradicate people it's been you don't listen to the
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words of actually israeli leaders like minister dermer who's the minister of strategic affairs who has said
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like in the beginning like absolutely you'll pass a u.n security council resolution saying that the
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people can come back after hamas is defeated but mainly i would say and i hope you can put it in a
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picture take out a map look at where gaza is and look at where the sinai desert is and then look at
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where egypt is there's a massive area so i think it's bullocks that that's the excuse that people give
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and one historically it's never been the case and they're actually prolonging the war they're
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actually causing civilian death all you would have to do on october 2023 right afterwards egypt launched
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a armor brigade and many other troops to the border to make sure no civilians got out they built a new
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wall there's actually three walls they built a new wall to make sure that nobody got out now if you're
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so adamant that you think that israel and there is this in a lot of these positions there's just
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nefarious israeli theory underneath it like oh they're not they're trying to do things sneakily
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they can't do it in the open so they have these ulterior motives like look i look at it as a war
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objectively as possible the fact that you say israel because you think they're nefarious can't move the
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civilians out of the harm's way you're not even you're united nations and you want to create a
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humanitarian area where there won't be chaos where hamas won't cause the chaos you could build
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a humanitarian area and we're talking two million people i fought in a neighborhood of baghdad that's
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two million people it isn't the scale that's the problem it's the fact that this is israel so of
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course you can't create a even if you want to create a fenced-in area in the sinai desert where
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every international agency every even international militaries or security forces could help provide
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security of that area well no no this it's not an option because we believe israel has nefarious
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goals but i'll i'll go to the double standard in war if somebody starts a war and and there is a
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response to that war absolutely there is population displacement until the end of the war and then if
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somebody's saying well the border shouldn't change either right so this everything should be the exact
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same as october 6th before hamas the government of gaza and its military invaded israel people don't
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understand the second and third order effects of trying to create this standard because it's israel
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because you believe you know the israel palestine history which most people don't or they're what we
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call revisionist history where they try to invent the history of things that happened it's because it's
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israel so i say that that that argument right i don't attack people i attack their veracity of
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their statements and that that just you know as one of the president said that dog don't hunt
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like your facts are not right that israel can't do this and that the trump plan to call the trump
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plan ethnic cleansing is insanity it is straight tds that the movement of people to allow people to
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voluntarily leave somewhere where there is suffering combat awful things happening but no no because
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it's palace palestinians you've got to stay in there that's insanity and it needs to stop because
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if not and what i write about a lot as well is like if you say this about israel are you just saying
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well this won't apply to us you know uk france whatever this won't happen to us so we won't have
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to follow these rules this is just we just want israel to follow these rules let me give you something
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that nobody i've ever seen on your show do is what would happen if this happened to the united states
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you know i could talk britain as well what would the united states do if an october 7 style attacks
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not even have to do the comparative numbers right the fact that it's like 40 000 civilians dead and
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thousands taken hostages the united states military would respond immediately with overwhelming force
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and and i have to give people a class on what is portionality in war like what is to push disproportionate
00:25:44.780
the united states would have responded to october 7th with amazing military force because we have
00:25:50.620
10 active divisions we had the ability to dominate the sky we would have made sure not a single rocket
00:25:57.840
came out of enemy areas headed towards our cities like los angeles if you talk about the southern border
00:26:02.660
there were 4 000 rockets launched by hamas on the morning of october 7th and then there were about
00:26:08.620
8 000 more launched since then the u.s military would immediately invaded that territory to retrieve our
00:26:14.960
hostages it would have encouraged other countries and used all of our forms of national power to encourage
00:26:22.320
them to allow people to get out of harm's way and we would have tried to end it as quickly as possible
00:26:27.560
and i think that's where people misunderstand we would also have done the same things israel is doing
00:26:33.280
to try to protect civilians and i have boldly said and and i challenge anybody prove me wrong that israel
00:26:39.500
has done more to protect civilians as in the measures that any military has ever created in history
00:26:45.140
and because people don't know these they don't have they haven't studied these they're called civilian
00:26:49.800
harm mitigation measures israel has done more than any nation in history to include any western nation
00:26:56.220
what they have done to protect civilians we would have done some of those but we would have
00:27:00.960
immediately responded with overwhelming that's the goal in war is to use overwhelming military force to
00:27:08.600
convince your enemy to do your will as in to either give back the hostages surrender or or you take
00:27:15.520
what it values most which is his population centers in his land that's war that's why the framework of this
00:27:22.320
is all wrong john i'm really glad that we're having this conversation because the old adage says the
00:27:28.800
first thing the first casualty of war is the truth and one of the difficulties that has been for me when
00:27:34.400
i've been following this because we've been conducting these interviews and i'm sure everybody is working
00:27:39.820
out what is true and what isn't so let's talk about the casualties how do we know that these casualties
00:27:47.060
are the stats are accurate or as accurate as they possibly can be they say women and children killed
00:27:52.920
what do they mean by children does that mean up to the age of 18 21 women could these women be
1.00
00:27:58.440
combatants as well explain a little bit more for us sure one i've already explained that nobody in the
00:28:04.520
history of wars everyone asks but what's your civilian to combatant ratio nobody's ever taken the enemy's
00:28:09.340
word on the casualty count but fine even if you took the enemy's casualty count so hamas the gaza health
00:28:16.480
ministry one if you believe that there's a number or a story or a photo that leaves gaza without the
00:28:22.180
permission of hamas then you're just you're biased so of the casualty counts and i i know i heard
00:28:28.760
pierce morgan say there's been 20 000 kids killed in gaza which is a lie not i i really find it weird
00:28:35.440
that um people that are just anti-israel will say numbers that even hamas doesn't say you're absolutely
00:28:41.280
right if we talk about children right because that's where they go to like john i don't i don't care that
00:28:45.900
you say israel has done more they're not effective like that's not true either the hamas gaza health
00:28:53.100
ministry numbers are have been shown to be methodologically and statistically even data
00:28:59.600
centrically wrong full of errors full of double names um have you ever asked any of these people
00:29:07.180
that use these numbers have you seen the gaza health ministry list of people who have died by natural
00:29:11.900
causes no it doesn't exist so 20 000 kids supposedly you're right the united nations puts kids at 18
00:29:19.500
so that's a list of people anybody below the age of 18 i joined the military at 17 i would have been
00:29:25.260
on that list the fact that hamas has radicalized the entire population and deploys child soldiers
00:29:31.440
they don't care nobody cares but what about the the babies john i'm like okay i absolutely agree
00:29:37.600
and this is the insanity of you want perfection in war you want a bloodless war the laws of war account
00:29:45.120
for civilian death and say you have to take everything reasonable and feasible to prevent it
00:29:50.080
and israel has done that but back to the numbers there is no way and and this is again you have people
00:29:57.440
insane people and i'm sorry that they're in the uk um who say they've figured out a way to figure out
00:30:03.380
how many casualties have died so they won't even take hamas's numbers right which again every statistic
00:30:09.380
that has spread around the world has been shown to be false that's not what hamas says you know the
00:30:15.060
majority women majority children false false the fact that they try to say well this many innocent
0.89
00:30:21.620
civilians and this is where i really as a as an analyst of multiple wars is that we believe not me but
00:30:28.260
other people that there is somebody in gaza who can point to a body even if it's an adult male
00:30:33.220
and say well that person was a combatant and that person was not a combatant they weren't partaking
00:30:38.580
in the hostilities is there civilian death in gaza absolutely it's a war and hamas wants hamas kills
00:30:46.180
people themselves i mean over 20 of hamas's rockets so over 13 000 rockets they've launched at israel
00:30:52.260
have landed inside of gaza killing gazans they go on the list really anybody who's died for any reason
00:30:57.620
goes on the list if you were a hamas terrorist across the border into israel to kill slaughter
0.92
00:31:03.300
rape and maim and died you're on the list the the list is insane but and i and other people have
0.96
00:31:10.340
picked it apart from a data perspective i think it's insane that it's there's a fascination on the list
0.98
00:31:16.500
when the actual question for any military other than israel is is that military following the laws of war
00:31:23.620
in distinction necessity proportionality and overwhelming it is yes there's actually not
00:31:29.860
been a single case to be shown that israel has targeted civilians has been collateral damage yes
00:31:35.860
but here's some numbers in case people are so fascinated with the numbers which i think is really
00:31:40.660
problematic because again when you have a combatant a non-state actor like hamas who purposely doesn't
00:31:47.060
wear a uniform doesn't distinguish itself just that i mean i in ukraine millions of civilians
00:31:53.460
joined the fight to against the russian invasion and they wrapped the yellow or blue tape around
00:31:57.620
their arm i don't know where they got all this tape but they immediately distinguished themselves
00:32:02.580
even if they're carrying ammunition or whatever as partaking in the hostilities but let's talk about
00:32:09.540
numbers right so everybody i was getting the number early in the war like 10 000 people killed i'm like
00:32:15.460
okay it's a war that nobody's seen in modern history all those variables the size of the combatant
00:32:22.660
the dense urban areas but there's only one battle in american history i can't find one in british
00:32:29.060
history that has any of the parallels as in the density of the urban terrain the presence of civilians
00:32:35.300
a vicious enemy and that's the 1945 battle of manila i don't know if you know it in 1945 after the
00:32:42.340
u.s military was defeated in the philippines we returned and there were roughly three to four thousand
00:32:48.260
pow's and internees so hostages men women and children being held in the city of manila
00:32:53.700
a city of about 1.1 million there were 17 000 japanese defenders the u.s military
00:33:01.140
attacked to retrieve our hostages and liberate the city with about 35 000 come so this even the scale is
00:33:07.380
not correct in that battle we retrieved our hostages but again 35 000 american and other
00:33:14.980
attacking the city of 17 000 japanese defenders there were a hundred thousand civilians that died
00:33:20.100
in that battle and nobody made a new york times op-ed that was on the cover of the saying too many
00:33:26.900
civilians died in this war why was that well because it's war because the japanese were the ones who were
00:33:32.980
slaughtering the civilians in that war or let me give you one other one again this fascination with the
00:33:39.940
numbers is crazy but john can i just interrupt you there i know you were saying this fascination
00:33:45.700
with numbers is crazy i do understand and from an academic perspective i agree with you but let's also
00:33:51.700
be honest you know this is a war that has not just been fought on the battlefield it's not just been
00:33:56.900
fought diplomatically it's also been fought in the modern day arena of social media and there are
00:34:03.620
millions of people all over the world particularly in the west who are having horrific images
00:34:09.780
but shown on their phones of horrendous suffering of civilians so i know what you're saying but also
00:34:18.340
as well i do understand the fascination because if you've just seen a baby blown up then that's going
00:34:23.220
to be at the forefront of your mind surely absolutely and again if you started studying war on october 7th
00:34:29.300
you wouldn't realize that this that is a uniqueness as well right the fact that this a war of this scale
00:34:34.100
and of this viciousness is aired on the phones the algorithm actually drives it to their phones every
00:34:41.940
awful thing that's happened in war gets driven to the the uninformed minds of massive populations
00:34:49.380
that is unique and this is where you know if we would have had tick tock during even the korean war
00:34:54.820
right in the korean war 50 000 over 2 million civilians died in the korean war it's a 37 month war that's
00:35:01.780
50 000 civilians dying a month for the every month of the war for 37 months had we had tick tock during
00:35:10.180
that of course there would be something different had this not been israel there would be something
00:35:16.340
different because they start with the image and like that's awful israel did this on purpose and they
0.86
00:35:20.740
don't want to listen to anybody with any contradictory information about why is this happening and and the
00:35:27.380
ideal that well of course it's it's awful look what's happening and there are innocent civilians
00:35:32.340
who are dying but that's not the intention which we could get to this baseless claim of genocidal intent
00:35:39.620
that is not the intention of the idea in any way shape or form it is actually the intention of hamas do
00:35:46.820
you realize that every individual in gaza could fit in hamas's tunnels with ease there's over 400 miles of
00:35:53.860
tunnels all 2.2 million civilians could fit in those tunnels but you've never seen an image of a
00:35:58.820
single civilian in those and i again i do war around the world in ukraine the civilians sought refuge
00:36:04.340
because russia didn't give notice in the tunnels and they still do in the subways and all that to escape
00:36:11.140
the awful attacks of russia so yes you're right absolutely there is a fascination again with israel
0.99
00:36:17.540
because i haven't seen protests about the awful things and i don't do what about isms but it's just
00:36:22.500
and your actual veracity of comment where are you on the atrocities that are happening in
00:36:29.220
yemen and sudan and all these other areas even in humanitarian aid distribution during the somalia
00:36:37.220
war 200 to 300 000 people had died of starvation and then the united nations and others tried to get aid
00:36:44.660
to the population and failed because the clans took it they killed humanitarian aid workers i'm fine if
00:36:51.300
people are anti-war i'm not fine if people are anti-fact on what is happening in gaza let me
00:36:58.580
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so and i'm glad we talked about the aid situation because again explode any myths i've been reading
00:38:47.220
about this i this may be completely incorrect was there a three-month aid and food blockade by the idf
00:38:55.940
preventing food and aid entering gaza no so there was an 11 week is that three months
00:39:02.900
no that's two that's two and a half months an 11 week pause but again even the people that you've
00:39:08.980
had on who so-called are informed about it don't give you the full picture so during the last ceasefire
00:39:15.300
which was right before this pause of the humanitarian game going in it was 42 days of ceases there were 25,000
00:39:23.300
trucks of age that went in during those 42 days and then there was a pause in more aid going in while
00:39:31.940
israel and the united states enacted the gaza humanitarian foundation in southern gaza mostly
00:39:38.020
three sites in southern gaza one in northern gaza nobody talks about where did that 25,000 trucks of
00:39:44.660
aid go and how long would that last while israel developed a plan to continue the war but also
00:39:50.420
move civilians into southern gaza and increase the aid there they never said they wanted to stop
00:39:55.700
una they said they wanted to phase it out because of the fact not only was hamas gathering and i saw
00:40:01.620
some you know recently in the of course there was a humanitarian crisis happening but of all the
00:40:08.180
people to be blamed it was only israel being blamed right and this is the you know the thousand
00:40:13.140
trucks of the united nations because people won't give you the timeline and i love long-form
00:40:17.700
podcast because let's talk about it let's talk about the ceasefire right so not only did 25,000
00:40:24.660
trucks of aid go in hamas insisted and would not give hostages back unless israel allowed
0.51
00:40:30.900
one million palestinians to move back into northern gaza on top of rubble minefields everything so that
1.00
00:40:38.180
it would be really hard for israel to continue the war and provide humanitarian aid which was centered
00:40:44.260
on the south of gaza for some reason that escapes people that the fact that there was this massive
00:40:51.460
population displacement back into northern gaza for hamas's strategy and what israel was trying to do
00:40:58.580
was concentrate the aid distribution into southern gaza people don't also reckon recognize that there's been
00:41:06.340
the statistic of how much does flour cost right so there is some really good analysis about the price of
00:41:12.740
flour going up in northern gaza okay who's selling the flour that's actually not just hamas but
00:41:21.140
there's not a production of any aid going in gaza it's a war zone so that's aid that's been delivered that
00:41:27.380
hamas and gaza civilians take and then sell back to civilians it it's a war zone you know the idea that you're
0.53
00:41:35.460
making gazans walk through combat areas to get to the aid in southern gaza the entire gaza strip is a
00:41:43.140
war zone what what are you people talking about israel tried to create a mechanism to get the aid to
00:41:50.420
directly to the people and it was successful but then let's talk about how hamas tried to make it
00:41:55.780
unsuccessful before the gaza humanitarian foundation gave out one box of food hamas put out written guidance
00:42:02.020
and oral like they put it on their x fees they put it out everywhere if you take a single meal
00:42:07.620
from the from this initiative you will face severe consequences and then they went out and attacked
00:42:14.420
the humanitarian zone and yes it was chaos is it the most chaos that's ever been seen in war no that's
00:42:20.420
absolutely ridiculous it was chaos because hamas was causing it and the idf adjusted their operations
00:42:27.140
in securing the outer zones and no i'm not a fan of warning shots what i'm not a fan of more though
00:42:33.620
is people that selectively take the facts and paint the story with that nefarious you know bad israeli
00:42:41.300
intention here is that they were trying to starve the population absolutely not right this is the idea
00:42:46.340
of how much aid not just food medical supplies field hospitals new water pipes that israel has done
00:42:54.020
to try to try to get to the people and we have to talk about even the people being a part of this
00:43:00.900
in war if you get the notice to evacuate then those civilians should evacuate but because of hamas and
00:43:07.140
other reasons you see civilians not evacuating areas that when evacuation notices because they have been told
00:43:14.180
to evacuate and then hamas pushed them back and now they're being asked to be moved again
00:43:18.820
it the insanity here is the nefarious israel was trying to starve the population as a mechanism of
0.98
00:43:26.260
warfare and that's not true just if you just lay out all the facts what happened from the last ceasefire
00:43:32.100
until today which israel has flooded now you have flooding of aid going in not just from the gaza
00:43:39.300
humanitarian foundation the u.n decided to start picking up the trucks again because of why they said they
00:43:44.260
were stopping you have airdrops you have many mechanisms i don't see that being the cover of
00:43:49.140
anybody's news though israel floods gaza with aid well i haven't seen that john uh you let even if
00:43:56.580
people accept all of that uh which of course many people dispute but let's say it's all true even
00:44:00.900
many people who are uh supportive of israel's campaign to destroy hamas including andrew fox who
00:44:07.860
we had on the show recently as you know um yeah feel that not much is being achieved anymore like
00:44:14.020
what is what is the goal now like i i know there's 25 hostages left but is is what is happening now the
00:44:21.700
continued destruction of gaza the killing of thousands of people is that really worth and also of course the
1.00
00:44:28.820
damage to israel's reputation because you can you can talk about the realities on the ground the fact is that
00:44:34.420
if there is one war that israel is definitely definitely not winning it's the pr war right
0.94
00:44:38.820
that's just a fact and by the way i have to say we've tried to have the prime minister of israel
00:44:43.620
in our show many times we've invited him on because i believe it's very important for the world to hear
00:44:48.660
from them as well and we're just we you don't seem to get anywhere and they don't seem to do many
00:44:54.420
interviews with even fair-minded people like us so it just feels like their side is not really putting
00:45:00.500
out their message in the way that you might be but my question to you is which is what i'd like to ask
00:45:05.060
them really is what is now being achieved by continuing this war what is the rationale here
00:45:10.100
i don't attack people i attack brashy of statements uh has israel been successful at achieving its goals
00:45:15.860
in the last 21 months one we have a fascination with short wars the ideal if you take accept which
00:45:21.860
again if people everybody can have their own opinions about the war but they can't have their own
00:45:28.020
facts okay they can have their own facts about what israel has done and what hamas has done okay
00:45:31.940
well let's talk about the facts what are israel's war goals and then we can assess whether they've
00:45:37.060
achieved them and also whether continuing the war helps to achieve more of them right so if you study
00:45:41.860
war then this is why i wanted to interview the prime minister the minister of defense and the head
00:45:47.940
of the idea just that chain is how you know somebody recently said on your show that this is just for
00:45:53.940
political reasons and like okay war by definition is the pursuit of political goals israel's three
00:46:00.100
goals have not changed since october 8th and if you listen to the prime minister minister dermer
00:46:07.700
everybody in israel's political military apparatus the goals have not changed number one return the
00:46:13.700
hostages israel has returned through the use of many forms of national power both military and political
00:46:20.420
over 200 of the 250 hostages in less than 21 months against a irrational actor who will only give up
00:46:27.460
hostages if they think they need to in order to pursue their strategy of surviving the war so number one
00:46:33.460
goal number two goal was to dismantle hamas's military and remove them from power in gaza hamas no longer
00:46:41.380
has a military on october 8th it had a vast military of over five brigades 24 battalions 40 000 fighters
00:46:49.940
20 000 rockets the ability to defend ground that was arrayed across the gaza strip it no longer has as
00:46:56.260
a military does it have a guerrilla force yes does it have a lot of radicalized people who are willing
00:47:02.420
to continue to fight absolutely that's not the measure of effectiveness though is israel been successful
00:47:08.260
at destroying hamas's military that's that's a fact they absolutely have and they are continuing that
0.75
00:47:14.900
operation the fact that the average age of a new hamas recruit is 16 seems to escape people
00:47:21.060
yes there are new hamas recruits the other one is to remove hamas from power right hamas was the
00:47:27.780
political apparatus that invaded and ordered its military its terror army to invade southern gaza israel
00:47:34.740
has attrited hamas's governing capabilities you have clans rising up they're the writing op-eds in
00:47:42.900
the wall street journal about i am not hamas i am controlling southern parts of gaza israel has been
00:47:48.980
successful at taking the power from gaza yes it made missteps in the trying to rest that main source
00:47:56.820
of power and there's new statistics out just yesterday about how much money hamas has made
00:48:01.780
since october 7th to pay its fighters by taking the aid and then lastly so three goals if i'm not being
00:48:08.580
clear return to hostages dismantle hamas's military remove them from power and ensure that gaza never
1.00
00:48:14.740
threatens israel again and israel has continued to establish a border area and expand that very
00:48:24.180
difficult situation that was the border between gaza and israel since october 7th so if somebody says
00:48:29.860
there's nothing being achieved here or there's nothing been that has been achieved they're just not
00:48:35.300
right that the idea that you should have stopped the war right so you know i heard somebody say you
00:48:40.500
know after the death of yaya sinwar you should just ended it there was no successes being made and you
00:48:45.220
were you were hurting israel's reputation on the international stage and you could talk about this
00:48:50.260
ridiculous stuff about a two-state solution and threatening israel to stop the war again take out
0.81
00:48:56.740
the word israel and take out the word palestine and just if we were just to do this on paper this is what
0.83
00:49:02.420
happened on you know a country is invaded by a terror force all these things happen the other country
00:49:07.060
waged war with these goals we wouldn't be having this question of they're not achieving anything in
00:49:14.340
this war and the idea that you could do this in 21 months again that you could do this quickly under
00:49:20.500
the constraints right again united states and no other nation would have done it this way because
00:49:26.260
they wouldn't have been forced to write six months of don't go to don't go into rafa you gave the
00:49:32.340
enemy a safe haven now the enemy still has safe havens in gaza city where they have never evacuated they
00:49:38.660
have in dirabla and in the humanitarian zone that was forced to be made absolutely israel has the right
00:49:45.700
to continue the operation and all these double standards that is being held to it's still fulfilling even
00:49:52.740
though they're not right so where does this go israel has to remove hamas from power not just for the
0.80
00:49:59.540
safety of israel but for the safety of the gazan people to not be used as human sacrifices in the
00:50:06.660
overall goal of hamas which has never changed which is the destruction of israel i don't know if you saw
00:50:12.020
recently how it thanked keir starmer about his threat to israel and said look look britain thank you for
00:50:20.340
threatening israel to recognize palestine as a state in september but make sure we're clear we
00:50:27.540
want jerusalem to be the capital of that palestinian state and we don't want israel to exist in it john
0.73
00:50:34.420
there are people who are going to say look by continuing this war you're effectively playing
00:50:39.860
into hamas's hands what hamas wants is to delegitimize israel on the world stage to make
00:50:47.540
themselves look like the victims they don't care how many people die how many civilians die in fact
00:50:53.780
for them the more that die the better because the stronger it makes their position and all israel is
0.77
00:50:59.460
doing by continuing this war is ultimately strengthening hamas plus the civilians that are
00:51:06.820
in that area are going to be ever more likely to be radicalized the more their friends and their
00:51:13.940
families die yeah it's a great question and i heard you know the great military theorist dave smith
00:51:20.260
try to invoke insurgency math in this war right so you know the ideal again counterinsurgency theory
00:51:26.420
where you have to protect the population because there's a small amount of enemy that are using the
00:51:31.140
protection of being hidden within the population and you need the population support all of this that
00:51:36.820
you're creating more terrorists than you're killing if if somebody was to apply that math to war
00:51:42.980
then world war one world war two korean war there would be no war fault if you have to take in the
00:51:50.100
the opinion of the enemy's population towards its support right if you look at japan
00:51:57.620
if you would have pulled the japanese population during war ii a hundred percent would say continue the war
00:52:02.820
the emperor is a deity we will die for him in war against your enemies military and political apparatus
00:52:11.060
you are vicious against them you deal with the radicalization of the population after you have
00:52:17.140
achieved victory and again i go back to if you're saying you know it's the cost have been too much this
00:52:23.700
makes israel look too bad despite the facts you should just stop then you're saying that anybody who repeats
00:52:30.100
this sequence of the numbers game the information operations campaign you know the demonization of
00:52:37.220
the military doing everything physically possible to protect civilians then you're saying that one you
00:52:43.300
want hamas to stay in power in gaza and it is hamas not last year today that says thank you and we want
00:52:52.100
we will rebuild and we will continue to do october 7th attacks over and over and over again that's a fact
00:52:58.340
that's what people are saying if you say stop the war now now other people will say like oh agree we
00:53:02.740
agree hamas can't stay in power then what's your ideal of how to do this differently and this is again
0.84
00:53:08.500
you know the this is the even the people the last few people you've had like i don't know how to do
00:53:14.260
this but not this way like well i'm i can show you how this has been done in any other war step one
00:53:20.820
remove the civilian population out of harm's way for there should be a globe where's the protest
1.00
00:53:27.140
for egypt for egypt to allow the civilians to get out of harm's way so that the killing of civilians
00:53:33.620
that hamas is putting in the way stops none not one i really push back at this idea of israel is only
00:53:40.660
damaging itself by continuing the war we wouldn't say that about anybody else in any other similar
00:53:46.500
situation yeah but there's a big difference here forgive me for interrupting there's a massive
00:53:50.500
difference which is israel is a small country that relies on the support of its western allies to be
00:53:56.340
able to survive and function in a way that the united states doesn't have to reckon with the reality
00:54:02.420
you can you can think that this is a public perception game which doesn't matter to you as a
00:54:06.340
military analyst and i understand that perspective but the reality is if israel by pursuing this
00:54:12.420
conflict in this way alienates a whole generation of future western decision makers that will affect
00:54:18.740
its survival over the long term and i would argue that israel is losing the pr battle in the west and
00:54:24.740
you are going to see people who are in their 20s and 30s today who are going to be making decisions about
00:54:31.460
military aid to israel 10 15 years from now who are being radicalized to an anti-israel position
00:54:38.260
by what they're seeing and that is a reality that israeli politicians have to reckon with surely
00:54:43.220
absolutely and this is i i will not deny that israel hasn't lost a pr war it never fought a pr
00:54:49.380
right it's it's horrible at pr um and i'm again i'm pro-truth so i'm telling you what i've learned
00:54:56.100
from studying the war firsthand and interviewing these people or how it compares to other situations
00:55:01.940
which is this you know comparative analysis is a a research methodology but here's where i'll draw
00:55:07.940
that line about it should matter absolutely you can win every battle but lose a war that's you know
00:55:13.860
vietnam you name it that's that is absolutely the fact that i want to i'm a military analyst because i
00:55:20.500
study war which means i factor in what is the political goal and what is the political context
00:55:26.260
of the war again the bb derangement syndrome is that it's just him you know he has a lifelong history of
00:55:32.500
or or goal to strike iran which is which is rubbish i mean that that's insane hyperbole and not true
00:55:39.300
the damage to the pr work right so if you think that because israel is continuing the war in gaza it is
00:55:46.500
detrimentally hurting his status as a nation okay let's talk about what it did to hezbollah which is
0.82
00:55:54.180
ridiculous of pierce morgan to say well if it can do this to hezbollah why can't it do that to hamas
0.63
00:55:59.940
like that's just showing your ignorance on the complete context well give us that context explain
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00:56:04.500
the difference it's what's it's not a short answer right that's why these these these hosts want your
0.69
00:56:09.380
30 second talking you've got time here not explain it to us as long as you need not you okay
00:56:14.420
not you right so hezbollah in southern lebanon was a terror army with a nation right it had political
00:56:23.940
power had military power but it was focused on southern lebanon in it had over a hundred thousand
00:56:30.500
fighters over a hundred thousand mid to long range or short to mid-range rockets it was a vast enemy that
00:56:37.620
israel was focused on and you could talk about yes it made it not focus on the threat of hamas and
00:56:43.060
all that information that was going on israel was successful because it had infiltrated hamas
0.98
00:56:49.860
intelligence and hezbollah yeah hezbollah it infiltrated hezbollah just from a demographic
00:56:56.580
situation if you just as a analyst give the variables of what all i told you about what
00:57:01.940
hamas had built hezbollah and i had built could not build that in southern lebanon hezbollah is a
00:57:07.940
a segment of lebanon's population it's a very diverse society that isn't fully radicalized
00:57:14.260
towards hezbollah's goals of destroying israel which is the islamic regime in iran's goal so
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00:57:20.340
israel was able to infiltrate hezbollah's supply chain its intelligence even to be able to know where
00:57:27.220
every single rocket launching location was because it's not underground in most cases and step one like
00:57:34.900
i said in a war is remove the civilian population and what did israel do when it started operations
00:57:40.020
against hezbollah give notification and the entire population of southern lebanon left nobody talks
00:57:46.100
about what are the civilian casualty counts in israel's war against hezbollah because it's so low
00:57:50.900
it doesn't make for news against israel they were very successful because they were able to infiltrate
00:57:57.540
this terror army within a society that's a lot different than the context of the urban terrain
00:58:04.820
the radicalization the diversity of of the society that was hamas or even the goals i mean nasrallah
00:58:12.580
pulled back hezbollah when israel started his operation it didn't fully fight so there's so many reasons
00:58:19.380
why israel was able to defang hezbollah it didn't defeat hezbollah it wasn't its goal right so
00:58:25.540
like will you acknowledge the fact that the goal in gaza is the removal of hamas from power and its
00:58:31.380
complete military capability that's not what the goal was the hezbollah the goal with hezbollah was to
00:58:36.500
to cheer them to stop launching rockets at israel and that was achieved same thing with the islamic
0.96
00:58:42.900
regime in iran what was the goal so going back to is israel weaker today because it's continuing
00:58:48.260
it defanged hezbollah it deterred iran and had the united states join in its efforts to prevent iran from
00:58:54.980
getting a nuclear weapon not a single one of the arab the abraham accords deals fell apart
00:59:02.260
you had arab nations defending israel during this war in 1948 there were five arab armies that
00:59:09.060
attacked israel in 1967 there were three arab armies in 1973 there was two arab armies now you have
00:59:15.940
arab nations protecting israel in the middle east you had the new syrian government which is a former
00:59:22.500
terrorist organization knocking drones out of the sky that were headed towards israel jordan was
00:59:29.140
helping other nations was helping the idea that you somebody would say israel is is secluded on the
00:59:34.500
global stage it's done generational damage to its reputation is not true based on the facts israel in
00:59:41.620
since october 7th has fought an eight front war seven fronts of seven different military organizations
00:59:48.420
and the eighth front which is the information war which is you're right it's losing it's horrible at
00:59:52.580
it it needs to do better but the idea that it is weaker as a nation and the threats to it are higher
00:59:58.820
is not true but what we do have is spineless global leaders we have spineless global leaders who have
01:00:05.460
listened to the disinformation and it matters in a democracy that the population is believing the junk
01:00:12.420
but you've had others who have stood up as leaders not just the united states and president trump saying
01:00:16.820
what are you talking about of course israel has the right to continue operations in gaza and how
01:00:21.220
about somebody stand up and help let's talk about who else has ever been attacked in history and what
01:00:27.940
nation has come to their aid what nation has come to israel's aid i'm still waiting to hear or what
01:00:35.540
nation has offered to help of course the united states has helped in every way possible to include allowing
01:00:42.820
the the arms that israel has purchased to be delivered although we were threatening since october 7th to
01:00:49.140
not only not send munitions which we could talk about this i understood where the you can't use large
01:00:55.540
bombs in an urban area was coming from because again i've been studying this for a while but at one
01:00:59.940
point the united states was threatening to or stop the delivery of bulldozer parts and to somebody who
01:01:04.900
doesn't study war like oh that's nothing you don't understand that the only way you enter
01:01:09.380
portions of gaza is with leading with a a bulldozer an armorized bulldozer so when the united states
01:01:17.060
administration said we're not going to send you replacement parts they were buying into the the
01:01:22.260
junk it's just not true and if it was true that israel has a just goal but hamas has created a strategy
01:01:30.740
that has worked then you will see more hamas around the world as in more hamas strategy you'll see the
01:01:38.500
practice of hostage taking you have a practice of this multimedia scripted disinformation command
01:01:46.180
campaign picked up by mindless influencers you will see more violence if somebody wants peace
01:01:52.820
they should get on the same sheet of music that hamas has to be destroyed and here are ideals to help
01:01:58.740
destroy hamas and remove hamas from power so the gaza people can actually be free
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save your seat now but john is it i can't believe i'm asking this question but is it actually possible
01:03:28.340
to defeat an enemy that refuses to say that it's defeated so this again this goes to the you can't
01:03:35.780
defeat an idea like you can't fight this is that counter-terrorism theory that you can't you can't defeat an
01:03:42.820
idea this way who says that anybody's trying to defeat the hamas ideology at this moment you have a
01:03:49.300
nation who is trying to remove a government from power and destroy its military capabilities
01:03:56.260
you deal with the radicalization of the ideal that has been there and fueled i don't know if people
01:04:02.900
have seen the you know the palestinian sesame street have seen the unruh school books of hamas
01:04:08.900
so that ideal which i understand like this has been like well you can't do it this way like okay
01:04:13.940
tell me historically how any enemy of any similarity has been defeated by by what giving them something
01:04:23.060
no you have to move forward and take away their will to believe that they can achieve victory there
01:04:28.020
are lots of ideals that are still around nazism you know isis all these people they don't have a
01:04:35.860
autonomous region that they call their nation they don't have armies and they definitely don't have the
01:04:40.820
ability to launch attacks against another nation at this moment depending on what group we're talking
01:04:45.700
about so uh if you're advising the israeli government about what they ought to do from here
01:04:50.420
how how should how will this conflict and how should it and how should they proceed from here in your
01:04:55.620
opinion sure so again if you study war i get this be a forecaster for us how how long is this going to
01:05:02.180
take how will this end look if you study war you you know that there is no prediction it's uncertain
01:05:09.460
it's political and it's human i don't do i don't give recommendations to nations i i have definitely
01:05:14.340
helped people with understanding the context and in the baseless arguments it ends with the defeat of
01:05:21.220
hamas as the political power in gaza that can happen in many ways yes the the population in gaza can
01:05:27.700
rise up and that there are portions that are doing that you can have other powers in gaza palestinian
01:05:34.420
powers that could rise up and seize power you could have the complete unilateral surrender of hamas it
01:05:41.460
might be unlikely but hamas has the hamas fighters and again success you just last week had hamas fighters
01:05:49.940
surrendering in large amounts because israel was at their doors and this is the the sanctuary part that
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01:05:56.980
israel has left partial portions of gaza untouched 25 not touched once out of concern for these
01:06:04.740
hostages and the difficulty of moving the civilians out of those areas like western gaza city and in
01:06:12.180
other areas or eastern gaza but the ideal so what's the recommendation of course israel cannot not fight
0.75
01:06:20.740
the narratives right when you have a hashtag that's going viral and you have these influencers talking
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01:06:26.420
stupid the only way you fight stupid is with actual credible information although some people won't
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01:06:32.340
be as credible if i if somebody was doing this different again take israel out of the equation
1.00
01:06:38.100
and i've seen this even in india pakistan recently in other wars that are very recent you have to
01:06:44.100
communicate daily what's going on and what you're what you're doing you have to have a military person
01:06:51.060
communicating every day this is what our military is doing this is the goal you have to have a political
01:06:56.340
apparatus right so the you know israel right you know right criticism doesn't have a spokesman
01:07:02.020
or the israeli government who is daily giving the communication i was telling somebody recently about
01:07:06.660
kogat right kogat is the idf arm that has been facilitating all the aid the water the medicine
01:07:13.460
they didn't even know what the organization was let alone that it puts out daily information about
01:07:18.740
all the things that israel is doing to help the civilians so israel in order to continue this war and
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01:07:25.060
they're in debate as we're talking about deciding to go into that last 25 percent to move the
01:07:31.540
civilians into the south under this crazy constraints that they have to fight the war and then you have
01:07:36.340
a united nations session in later in september that's going to of course say a lot of awful things
01:07:43.460
i would hope israel changes its pr strategy communicates more on a day-to-day basis and you can't wait until
01:07:50.820
after something has gone viral and after nefarious actors start putting pictures of children trying
01:07:57.460
to make stories about what israel is intending to do rather than what it's actually saying and actually
01:08:04.100
doing in gaza and then i would hope again if you were to move the entire population of two million people
01:08:11.380
into a a area that hamas can't get to them you could end this war relatively quickly i wouldn't say
01:08:18.900
very quickly because hamas would have would have lost its center of gravity which is the use of the
01:08:24.900
population not just as a shield but the humanitarian suffering in every aspect that they're doing but
01:08:31.700
if you're asking me for a prediction of how this war will go i cannot give you that and absolutely again
01:08:36.900
this isn't bb the prime minister of israel if you understand the politics of israel he has to maintain
01:08:45.460
a coalition it isn't like our system where he can be president for four years and just make all these
01:08:50.500
decisions over the military all these things he has to face votes of no confidence regularly and has
01:08:56.500
to keep a coalition but the israeli society could decide very soon that look the costs are too much
01:09:02.180
i know that we have the the the just goals that we have but we don't want to pay the price
01:09:09.620
in the loss of soldiers and the hostages what they're doing to the hostages which is awful
01:09:14.580
that's what a democracy does it makes that decision so there is nobody who can tell you how this is going
01:09:20.820
i as a john spencer with just my personal opinion think it's insane that you should say israel should
01:09:27.460
have stopped it's not achieving its goals because that's not true and if you're saying that about
01:09:31.940
israel every democracy that ever fights a war especially for its actual defense of its nation
01:09:39.140
on its borders will not be able to going forward well this is why i say that i i'm just shocked that
01:09:46.340
the the pr approach from the israeli leadership because no offense john but you saying these things
01:09:53.620
doesn't really cut through the same way as if president prime minister netanyahu was sitting there
01:09:58.740
and making these same arguments to our audience like i'm just shocked at the fact that they're not
01:10:04.180
pursuing a communication strategy of actually telling people what it is that they're doing and why because
01:10:10.660
in in that vacuum you are getting all of these narratives that you talk about being perpetrated with no
01:10:17.940
pushback and it just it creates a media conversation about this that i think is completely divorced from
01:10:23.940
reality but i have to say i put the blame on that for the people whose job it is to communicate about
01:10:29.620
it that's a fair criticism although you know i like to say that you know some of these people that you
01:10:35.060
talk to again i'm as pro-truth i bleed red white and blue i'm an american i am pro-truth because i i
01:10:43.700
understand why it matters for the rest of the world every other democracy and criticism is absolutely but
01:10:49.540
when you try to balance criticism with like yeah but they're doing all these things wrong like
01:10:53.780
demanding perfection so even in its information operations when it has communicated and nobody is
01:10:59.620
reporting on those communications when it reports kogat again daily gives out what they're doing to
01:11:05.700
alleviate civilian harm nobody cares the prime minister absolutely has communicated the goals repeatedly
01:11:13.060
has communicated that their war is not what the people have got us repeatedly but you have people like
01:11:18.340
well i don't care about that they're this is what they're doing this is the effects of their
01:11:22.900
operations which is insane or even i think one of the greatest spokesmen that israel has is minister
01:11:29.780
of strategic affairs dermer who was the us and you know the israeli ambassador to the us he has
01:11:36.180
communicated on multiple podcasts and multiple interviews this is what our goal is this is what our goal is
01:11:41.380
not this is of course we have the right you know we are trying to alleviate the harm
01:11:48.260
to civilians all these things you need to do better than that of course but there's also people who
01:11:53.140
don't want to hear right the who they invite on their shows yes you i know you would love to have
01:11:58.660
some of these interviews and i hope that they happen but there are people who aren't listening
01:12:02.020
to even the things that are being said and this is what i have a problem with is like you say because
01:12:06.980
israel in the beginning of the war said that he wanted to destroy hamas that hamas are animals that he wanted to
01:12:12.740
not do anything to help hamas and want to destroy hamas that that's genocidal intent
0.65
01:12:17.620
that's insane let alone what militaries say about the other military they're fighting but then you
01:12:24.260
want to rule out everything that israeli leadership has said about not wanting to harm the people of
01:12:30.100
gaza not wanting to starve the people of gaza and then you take the radical political figures and say
01:12:35.860
yeah but this guy said it smoltridge said this when gavir said that like i don't know about the uk system
01:12:41.700
but that's like taking marjorie taylor green statements or some other crazy so some other
01:12:47.220
people statements and saying like that's the policy of the united states that again that's a double
01:12:52.980
standard that's trying to demonize the entire nation of israel um and then this is the you know the
01:12:59.940
whole double standards game that that is a part of this i mean i guess let's push back on that so i
01:13:04.980
take your point there john but they would say well look the the finance minister has said these awful
01:13:10.420
things right if netanyahu doesn't do anything about it he's effectively condoning it why has he not
01:13:17.860
come out and said this is unacceptable the minister has been forced to resign we were at war but we do
01:13:23.300
not use this type of language or rhetoric and marjorie taylor green i think a you were right to describe
01:13:28.660
her as crazy you didn't need to correct yourself but b she's not in the cabinet right yeah there's a big
01:13:33.220
difference not so same thing with small church is not in the war cabinet he has not been the person
01:13:39.540
who's been making the decision so you want to i agree with you i i would have approached people
01:13:45.300
making statements very differently in a wartime situation when you are israel but you want to
01:13:50.260
criticize the political leaders of israel for being political so this is again we try to apply our
01:13:59.220
political framework on another nation like israel which is a a vibrant democracy with a vibrant left
01:14:05.940
and a vibrant right and that the fact that israel does have to keep a coalition and the prime minister
01:14:12.020
visual does i'm i'm sure and i think that's a correct inference to say he does want to maintain a
01:14:18.660
coalition and manage the government of israel because he believes it's in the best interest of
01:14:23.780
the security of the nations now when you impose personal motives on somebody without data and what
01:14:31.300
i say is in god i trust all others bring data so yes it's the right criticism you should come out
01:14:37.140
against that minister whoever it is for saying that thing although it's not what he said it's how
01:14:44.180
what he said can be framed so i absolutely support somebody saying i want to destroy all members of
0.78
01:14:50.500
hamas i want to take over the control of gaza like that's what militaries do when they're invaded and
0.92
01:14:59.300
attack into a different territory you take the power from the other government it's how it's being
01:15:04.500
any statement because there are a few statements coming out are framed it doesn't matter what they
01:15:08.660
say after that it's just i'm going to take that that little tidbit yes you would think you'd learn
01:15:13.060
like stop saying keep your mouth shut but if you want to criticize israel's political leaders for
01:15:18.740
being political as in trying to keep a coalition separate of the just reasonable what every other
01:15:26.980
nation would do for the goals of the war then i i have a little bit of pushback on that on if you
01:15:33.140
understand that the prime minister of israel has to maintain a coalition and or if not the government
01:15:38.740
falls and then you have you have to have an opposition leader all these things then that's just not
01:15:45.140
being reasonably an objective but when you put ulterior motives on people's intent then i have
01:15:51.540
a problem with that before john answers the final question at the end of the interview make sure to head
01:15:56.180
over to our sub stack the link is in the description where you'll be able to see this
01:16:01.060
despite israel's best efforts to avoid civilian casualties it is still being accused widely of genocide
01:16:07.780
what impact do you believe this war will have on the public's view of future wars and what impact will
01:16:13.140
it have on the strategy employed by the militarily weaker side rebecca asks what's the greatest
01:16:18.580
misunderstanding about modern warfare that you want eliminated question from daniel who said you
01:16:23.940
mentioned uh the term double standard a number of times uh if this double standard exists why do you
01:16:29.780
think it does because it's israel john uh thank you for coming and giving us your perspective on this
01:16:36.260
really appreciate it uh we're gonna go to questions from our audience which uh we've got a number of
01:16:42.340
great ones lined up for you before we do though the last question in all our interviews as you well know
01:16:47.780
is what is the one thing that we're not talking about as a society that we really should be i think
01:16:54.020
we're not talking about the complete reforming of the middle east that has happened since october 7th
01:17:00.740
um not just what was happening in the abraham accords but the dismantling of the islamic regime's ring
01:17:07.700
of fire which had been allowed to grow for decades under lots of people's leadership that the islamic
0.99
01:17:14.580
regime isn't close to a nuclear weapon that even the united states has created multiple trade agreements
01:17:22.660
that are about peace and prosperity in the middle east it seems to be again if it leads if it bleeds it
01:17:30.100
leads and for some reason if it makes the jews look bad then it leads as well nobody's talking about
01:17:35.780
the actual peace and prosperity the fall of the asad regime the all of these things that are happening
01:17:42.580
that are of a positive note in the middle east and it's actually a complete generational change
0.74
01:17:48.340
for the middle east the things that are happening the weakening of the islamic regime's hold on the
01:17:53.300
middle east the the strengthening of the ties with saudi arabia to kuwait all these other individuals
01:18:00.420
nobody's talking about that all right john thank you very much follow us on over to
01:18:04.500
substack at triggerpot.co.uk where we ask john spencer your questions
01:18:10.340
wiki leaks showed us the sense of irritation and fatigue the arab league has with hamas could
01:18:15.620
the recent pressure from the arab league calling for hamas to disband and disarm
01:18:19.700
perhaps change the mindset and the charter of hamas
01:18:36.180
getting ready for a game means being ready for anything like packing a spare stick i like to be
01:18:50.340
prepared that's why i remember 988 canada suicide crisis helpline it's good to know just in case anyone
01:18:57.620
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