TRIGGERnometry - War in Ukraine： What's Next？＊Recorded Live on 9th March 2022＊

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00:00:30.980 Hey, Constantine. Do you like trigonometry?

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00:01:59.060 Hello and welcome to a very special live episode of Trigonometry.

00:02:04.880 I'm Francis Foster.

00:02:06.340 I'm Constantine Kisson.

00:02:07.480 And this is the part two to our brilliant first episode that we did on the very first day of the war in Ukraine, where Ukraine was invaded by Russia.

00:02:18.600 The way the interview is going to work is going to be a little bit like this.

00:02:21.560 We're going to be doing an hour, just myself and Constantine talking.

00:02:25.280 We're then going to have a break, and we're going to have that break to collect your super chats and your PayPal's, where you're going to be asking questions to us.

00:02:33.820 And then in the last half an hour, I'm going to be fielding your questions to the both of us or to Constantine.

00:02:40.180 There we go, mate.

00:02:41.240 Welcome back.

00:02:42.180 It's part two.

00:02:43.140 There's a lot to update everybody on.

00:02:44.960 I've spent the last few days thinking about my own views and behavior and positions on this, but also talking to a lot of people on the ground in Russia, in Ukraine, who are involved in one way or another, but also talking to people who used to be in the Russian government, including my dad, who was a minister in the Russian government, whose job it was to deal with former Soviet countries, including Ukraine.

00:03:08.460 And he's got a very different view to me on all of these issues, talking to people who have advised several U.S. presidents, talking to people who are currently in the British government, who have the inside track and all of this.

00:03:18.440 So there's a lot to talk about.

00:03:20.420 So we're going to talk about a few things there.

00:03:22.760 The first thing I wanted to briefly talk about our fundraiser, which we'll do in a second.

00:03:27.460 Also wanted to tell everybody what is happening on the ground in Ukraine, because this isn't really being covered.

00:03:31.740 We're seeing refugees fleeing, we're seeing bombs exploding, but the strategic situation isn't really being properly covered, I think, in the West.

00:03:40.220 I also think another thing that's really not being covered or understood in the West at all is what's happening in Russia.

00:03:46.080 And this is very important in terms of the other stuff we're going to talk about with the fundraiser and all of that.

00:03:52.900 Is everything all right with the sound, guys?

00:03:54.380 Yeah, we're good.

00:03:55.260 And then the final thing I wanted to talk about is we never really got a chance to deal with it.

00:03:59.220 And I think some people would have got the impression that we underestimated or underplayed the importance of the NATO side of things and NATO expansion.

00:04:08.580 Was Russia provoked into this?

00:04:10.400 What is the historical and the broader perspective here?

00:04:13.180 And again, on that, I think there's some important things that we've got to share with people.

00:04:17.440 So with that in mind, let's talk about the fundraiser.

00:04:20.420 Absolutely.

00:04:21.140 Now, we're both incredibly proud of the fundraiser.

00:04:24.060 The amount that we've raised.

00:04:25.920 Well, we should tell people the amount as of today, it's £60,000.

00:04:30.940 Wow.

00:04:31.580 And if you imagine how many people got involved in that and the generosity of people and their willingness to put something behind their words and the feelings.

00:04:39.820 And it's not just thoughts and prayers.

00:04:41.120 People actually doing something is incredible.

00:04:43.160 However, as we let people know and locals a few days ago, you and I both, I think, had a few reservations about the fact that this money that we raised initially, and this was my idea and I take full responsibility for it.

00:04:56.160 We originally thought that the best use of that money would be to give it to the military in Ukraine to help the Ukrainians defend their country.

00:05:04.160 And we had some thoughts about it, and on reflection, I don't think that would be the best way to protect people's lives and to help people in Ukraine.

00:05:13.000 And we'll talk about why, and that's really the main reason we wanted to have this discussion.

00:05:17.120 But we want to ask permission of the people who gave us money to allow us to donate that to humanitarian purposes.

00:05:23.400 And if people don't want to do that, that's their money.

00:05:25.300 We'll give it back to them, no problem.

00:05:26.800 So, but let us at least explain why our thinking has changed.

00:05:30.420 Yeah, and I think it's very, very important because we did have a conversation where it wasn't uncomfortable, but it was a moment of realization from both of us as to what we've done.

00:05:42.360 And it's quite a challenge when you say to hundreds of thousands of people, look, we're raising for this very, very noble cause.

00:05:52.140 And then you have to not roll back on it, but admit that the money is going to be diverted to still a very worthwhile...

00:05:58.540 It's not going to be diverted.

00:06:00.040 If people want their money back, they can get it back.

00:06:02.080 Of course, yeah, but...

00:06:02.740 But we're offering them an opportunity to donate it to humanitarian causes.

00:06:06.160 So it's going to be given to humanitarian causes as opposed to the military.

00:06:09.860 And I'll explain why that is.

00:06:11.460 So the first part of that, before we get into the first part of that, I just wanted to say from my own perspective, it's been quite a couple of weeks for me personally.

00:06:19.260 I've been dealing with the emotion of my family in Ukraine being in this position, my family in Russia also being in a strange position as well,

00:06:27.220 going on Question Time, talking about this on different shows.

00:06:31.620 It's been very emotional.

00:06:32.960 And I think, like me, for me, it's much more intense, of course.

00:06:36.020 But for a lot of people in the commentary space and whatever, we've kind of all gone through the stages of grief, right?

00:06:42.960 Initially, everybody was in denial.

00:06:44.380 Even when I was saying the invasion is coming, no one wanted to believe it.

00:06:47.260 And even when it happened, I think we all felt slightly in denial about what was going on.

00:06:52.100 It was surreal.

00:06:53.020 It was surreal.

00:06:54.400 Then everybody gets angry.

00:06:55.920 And I think a lot of people are still stuck in that position.

00:06:58.620 And I was in that position for a period of time last week.

00:07:01.580 Then you go into depression.

00:07:03.140 And I was definitely towards the end of last week as I was starting to really feel what was going on and knowing that my family,

00:07:09.380 most of whom are basically now either in occupied territory or about to be.

00:07:14.020 You know, all of that was very sad.

00:07:15.800 And towards the end of the week, I was feeling very sad.

00:07:18.660 And I've taken some time.

00:07:20.540 And now I've actually, believe it or not, crazy as it sounds, come to a place of acceptance of what's happening.

00:07:26.380 And I kind of just remembered, because, you know, I've spent a lot of time doing personal development of various kinds,

00:07:32.960 that every religion almost and every spiritual teaching is basically the same thing,

00:07:38.840 which is suffering is caused by trying to pretend that you can change things that you can't.

00:07:42.400 And there's nothing I can do to change the situation.

00:07:45.260 And the truth is, as I think we'll talk about in a second,

00:07:47.740 I don't think there's a lot any of us can do about the situation other than help people who are going to be suffering from this,

00:07:53.520 which is what I really want us to focus on.

00:07:56.500 So we've all got to let go of our emotions here and just look at what is going to be the right thing going forward.

00:08:03.700 And I want to apologize to a few people, actually, in terms of my behavior last week,

00:08:09.460 because I got a bit carried away with the emotion of it all.

00:08:13.180 And so people would say to me, well, what do you think about this thing that this guy said?

00:08:16.760 And I'd be like, well, I remember this thing he said a week ago, the last time I had a chance to read what he said.

00:08:21.340 And he was wrong.

00:08:22.100 He was wrong to say there'd be no invasion.

00:08:23.840 So he's wrong.

00:08:24.920 Right.

00:08:25.900 Well, actually, for example, someone like Peter Hitchens, I spent a bit of time over the weekend reading some of his articles.

00:08:30.760 And there's stuff I don't agree with, but there's a lot of stuff.

00:08:33.380 I mean, he retweeted an article from 2017, which is absolutely accurate and bang on.

00:08:38.700 And the same with other people.

00:08:40.120 So I just want to say the emotions of the of the moment carried me away or I got carried away or whatever.

00:08:47.260 And I've reflected on that.

00:08:49.620 And I think that doesn't help the conversation.

00:08:52.380 So I'm going to go back to what our mission is here at Trigonometry, which is we are covering what's going on.

00:08:58.180 We are chronicling the decline of Western society and the destruction of civilization.

00:09:03.820 Let's stick with that rather than becoming players in this game.

00:09:07.260 Right.

00:09:07.780 Because I think that's very important.

00:09:08.960 I think that's why people trust what we do and they respect what we do, because everybody knows what we think.

00:09:14.940 But we try and approach things from a balanced perspective.

00:09:17.140 And I think that was starting to go a little bit by the wayside last week.

00:09:21.080 So I hold my hands up on that and I apologize for that.

00:09:25.140 So with that in mind, and this is going to be a very difficult conversation because I'm going to say some things that nobody wants to hear.

00:09:30.740 That doesn't sound like you, mate.

00:09:32.380 No, it doesn't.

00:09:33.220 But it's going to you know, there's a lot of things that people are not going to want to hear on all the sides of this conversation.

00:09:39.380 So let's first of all look at what is happening in Ukraine on the ground.

00:09:43.800 What is the narrative that we are hearing in our media right now in the West, would you say?

00:09:49.100 So our narrative in the media is that we have the Ukrainian army, the Ukrainian forces, which have been supplemented by ordinary civilians and even people like celebrities, athletes who are putting up a plucky and spirited resistance against the Russian army.

00:10:09.120 I was going to say the Soviets seems more appropriate against the Russian army and they're doing really well and the Russian army are in disarray.

00:10:16.140 I mean, I don't think that's an inaccurate analysis on the face of it.

00:10:21.300 But if you look at the broader picture of what's happening, yes, the Russian army is really struggling.

00:10:26.440 Yes, they are having deserters.

00:10:28.360 Yes, the equipment is falling apart in some cases.

00:10:32.000 Yes, they're making very slow progress.

00:10:33.820 Yes, the Ukrainians are very brave.

00:10:35.740 Yes, they're fighting wonderfully.

00:10:36.960 Yes, the Western weapons are helping, the javelin missiles and the stingers.

00:10:41.540 And yes, they haven't got complete air superiority.

00:10:46.140 However, however, the truth of it is that, and by the way, in their position, that is what I would be doing.

00:10:53.440 If I was a Ukrainian in Ukraine and my home was being attacked, I would be fighting to defend my country right now.

00:10:58.960 And I have so much respect for their courage and their bravery.

00:11:01.700 However, the first thing to say is, Anton, if you pull up a couple of maps that we talked about.

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00:11:31.760 The way that Russia approached this is they positioned their troops on the north side of Ukraine, in Belarus, on the east side in the two Brekoa regions, and on the south side in Crimea.

00:11:50.240 And they pushed from three directions at the same time.

00:11:52.780 So they're pushing from the north, they're pushing from the south, and they're pushing from the east.

00:11:56.500 And yes, their progress is slow in the north, and yes, their progress isn't particularly quick in the east, but they're making very quick progress in the south.

00:12:03.820 Now, and they're all making progress.

00:12:06.540 They're stalling in various areas, but they're making progress.

00:12:10.260 Now, the Ukrainians are defending very bravely, but if you look at the map of Kiev in particular, Kiev is about to be encircled.

00:12:17.040 So the Russian army came down from the north side on the western side of the river, and they're about to encircle Kiev completely.

00:12:26.660 Cut off supplies, cut off evacuations, cut off medical supplies, cut off supplies of ammunition, weaponry, reinforcements, all of that.

00:12:34.600 So at the moment, it's looking very much like they're going to at least encircle Kiev.

00:12:40.120 Once they do that, they're going to keep moving south.

00:12:43.660 The southern group is going to keep moving north and west.

00:12:46.040 They're cutting Ukraine off from the sea to prevent resupplies and all of that.

00:12:50.420 And the eastern group is pushing as well.

00:12:52.580 Now, the Ukrainian army is in the eastern part of Ukraine primarily, the bulk of their army.

00:12:57.820 So the moment they complete that line along the river, all of that army is going to be completely encircled and cut off.

00:13:04.800 This is how, in World War II, the Germans blitzkrieged their way through a huge swathe of Soviet territory.

00:13:12.620 All they did is they just enveloped armies, encircled them, and cut them off.

00:13:16.180 They didn't kill that many people.

00:13:17.860 They were killing one for every 12 prisoners that they took.

00:13:21.780 And the way they did that is by enveloping.

00:13:23.840 So while Ukraine is putting up a very brave resistance, from a military perspective, it's not looking good.

00:13:31.340 Okay?

00:13:32.540 So that's the first thing to say.

00:13:33.820 The second thing to say is when you speak to people in Ukraine on the ground, they're very brave, and they're determined, and they're defending their harms.

00:13:39.840 And you can only respect that and support that and all of that.

00:13:44.300 But they also all say, look, if they don't quote-unquote, this is how they say it in Russian and Ukrainian, close the sky, by which they mean a no-fly zone, it's a matter of time.

00:13:55.240 Okay?

00:13:56.480 And as I said two weeks ago, the West is not going to implement a no-fly zone because that would be the start of World War III.

00:14:02.920 Now, there have been some suggestions of how that could be gotten around.

00:14:07.940 For example, Poland said, look, why don't we give our planes to the Americans, and the Americans then donate them to Ukraine?

00:14:14.200 That way, Russia can't say we gave planes to Ukraine and invade us.

00:14:17.880 Right?

00:14:18.380 Well, Anton, if you pull up that article as well, the U.S. have knocked that back because they know how dangerous that is.

00:14:25.600 They're not going to allow planes or anti-aircraft systems, not Stingers, but other stuff, to go to Ukraine.

00:14:32.860 So they're not going to close the sky.

00:14:34.840 And even the Ukrainians on the ground, who are determined and driven, et cetera, are all saying, you know, it's a matter of time unless that can happen.

00:14:43.040 And that's not going to happen.

00:14:44.120 And the third thing that we should say as well is for reasons that we'll get into when we talk about what's happening in Russia, Russia is pulling up weaponry that it hasn't really yet used.

00:14:57.120 It may use it going forward, but it hasn't yet used.

00:15:00.060 And what we're talking about is not nuclear weapons.

00:15:03.220 It's not quite chemical weapons.

00:15:04.760 But it's horrific weaponry that is designed to flush people out from defensive positions.

00:15:09.960 These are called – they have various names.

00:15:12.560 The Russians call them vacuum bombs.

00:15:14.760 They're called air fuel bombs in English and thermobaric munitions.

00:15:20.580 And what they do is it's a two – there's two compartments in the bomb.

00:15:26.620 The first explosion is a small one.

00:15:28.920 And what it does is it spreads small particles of combustive material, fuel basically, into the air around it.

00:15:35.780 And the second explosion ignites it and creates a fireball that spreads rapidly, killing anyone in the fireball area.

00:15:44.740 But it also sucks all the – it consumes all the oxygen in that area.

00:15:48.420 So even if you don't get burned alive, you suffocate and your lungs rupture and you die in an awful way.

00:15:54.300 And this is a way to destroy defensive positions that otherwise couldn't be destroyed.

00:16:01.360 So if you've got some kind of reinforced bunker or whatever, as long as it's not completely sealed, right, that's what – and these are awful weapons.

00:16:10.000 And my concern is the longer this goes on and the longer that Ukrainians are putting up a fight, the more likely it becomes that Russia is going to use heavier and heavier weapons, as they are already starting to do in terms of shelling.

00:16:21.480 Just to interrupt you there, what's the radius of these weapons?

00:16:23.980 It depends on the size.

00:16:25.960 It depends on the size.

00:16:26.760 So the Americans use them in Afghanistan to flush people out from caves or to kill people in caves, really.

00:16:33.520 And they can be as small as a hand grenade or they can be a huge 42-ton bomb.

00:16:38.760 Wow.

00:16:40.260 And Russia has all of those.

00:16:41.580 So the Americans made one of these bombs called the Mother of Obombs.

00:16:44.680 And in response, the Russians made one called the Father of Obombs, right?

00:16:48.460 These are horrible weapons.

00:16:50.320 And the longer this carries on, is my point, the more likely things like that are going to be used, right?

00:16:55.640 Now, why do I think it's a matter of time?

00:16:58.120 And why am I so convinced that Russia will amplify the level of destruction?

00:17:04.160 You have to look at what's happening in Russia.

00:17:06.700 You have to look at what's happening in Russia.

00:17:08.300 Now, I've spoken to people in Russia of all – and we'll talk about was Russia provoked and is blah, blah, blah.

00:17:15.420 We'll talk about that in a second.

00:17:16.640 But let's just focus on what's actually happening.

00:17:19.140 So I spoke to my aunt, for example, who lives in Armenia.

00:17:21.920 Armenia is a Russia-friendly country in the Caucasus where Russian people would be welcome.

00:17:27.640 And normally, there are three to four flights between Russia and Armenia a day.

00:17:35.920 My aunt said last week on the day I spoke to her, it would have been Saturday or Sunday, there were 42.

00:17:41.520 Wow.

00:17:42.440 And that's because the people in Russia who are against this are all fleeing.

00:17:48.120 Most of them are fleeing, or many of them are fleeing.

00:17:50.500 And the rest of them are going on small protests a few thousand at a time and being arrested.

00:17:54.800 I think at the last count, it's about 6,000 or 8,000 people that have been arrested in Russia for protesting.

00:18:00.280 So the people who are against this are either leaving or making protests that are not going to be effective and being arrested.

00:18:06.640 Okay?

00:18:07.220 Twitter is shut down.

00:18:08.620 Facebook is shut down.

00:18:10.400 All Western social media is shut down.

00:18:12.640 All TV channels that deviate from the official line are shut down and closed.

00:18:18.600 Right?

00:18:18.760 And every day on Russian television, they do three-hour marathons with this guy called Soloviev who hosts the main show, which is, it's not like question time where you get people with different views.

00:18:30.420 Even in the format that, you know, people will say, well, question time doesn't really represent blah, blah, blah.

00:18:35.500 Sure.

00:18:36.200 But it's not like that.

00:18:37.140 It's one opinion.

00:18:38.100 Right?

00:18:38.500 And it's very powerfully delivered.

00:18:40.540 I felt sick watching it.

00:18:41.820 And what they're saying is there's a genocide happening in Ukraine.

00:18:44.560 Ukraine is run by Nazis, et cetera, to the point where there's videos now of captured Russian soldiers saying, I thought, I'm shocked because I thought there'd be swastikas everywhere.

00:18:56.560 That's what people are being told.

00:18:58.700 And that's what they think.

00:18:59.640 So, the Russian media communication strategy is very powerful.

00:19:05.060 They're showing really, like, emotionally driven clips of refugees fleeing Ukrainian Nazis and all of that, quote unquote.

00:19:15.320 So, support for Putin is rising.

00:19:19.440 People are blaming the sanctions and the war on the West, primarily.

00:19:24.660 Sure, the people who are against the war feel stronger about the war being wrong.

00:19:28.220 But the vast majority of people are more on Putin's side.

00:19:32.580 And they're building a kind of new – I don't know how to describe it.

00:19:39.900 I think you have to see it for yourself.

00:19:41.240 So, we have a little video.

00:19:42.400 And it's in Russian.

00:19:43.560 So, I'll just explain very briefly what they're talking about.

00:19:46.080 So, they're saying, we are in St. Petersburg, which used to be called Leningrad, a city in which 800,000 people starved to death during World War II because it was cut off from Russia by the Germans.

00:19:59.240 The blockade of Leningrad, as it was known.

00:20:01.040 And they're there in St. Petersburg.

00:20:04.480 And they're saying, do you really think that we're here in St. Petersburg, where we starve to death to fight Nazis?

00:20:09.720 And do you think we're going to give up because we don't have dollars in iPhones?

00:20:12.600 And they're saying, we have to – our boys are over there in Ukraine pulling the noose around the throat of fascism and Nazism.

00:20:20.000 And it's our job here to protect our streets from traitors and provocateurs.

00:20:24.920 They're talking about protesters.

00:20:26.340 Right?

00:20:27.280 And at the end, as you'll see, they chant for Russia, for Putin, for Russia, for the president.

00:20:33.660 Right?

00:20:33.880 And I just want people to get a visual sense and just a feeling of what that's like.

00:20:38.080 So, Anton, let's play that video.

00:20:39.460 Это город-герой Ленинград.

00:20:41.220 Город, который не покорился и победил.

00:20:43.640 Город, которому не стыдно.

00:20:45.580 Великую Отечественную, более 800 тысяч ленинградцев отдали своей жизни.

00:20:50.000 Но они сдались.

00:20:51.940 Неужели вы думаете, что мы – потомки людей, которые годами умирали от голода,

00:20:57.300 но били фашистов и держали фронт, продадим родину за доллары и айфоны?

00:21:02.920 Своими принципами мы не поступимся.

00:21:05.800 Мы никогда не променяем своих героев на персонажей Марвел.

00:21:09.940 Советская армия и блокадники разорвали фашистское кольцо вокруг Ленинграда.

00:21:14.080 Задача наших военных сейчас – насмерть затянуть петлю на шее нацизма,

00:21:17.500 прекратить, наконец, восьмилетнюю войну и ужас на Донбассе,

00:21:21.300 защитить наших людей, вынужденных бороться за право свободно говорить на родном языке.

00:21:25.900 А наша задача – защитить улицы российских городов от предателей и провокаторов.

00:21:30.760 Работайте, братья!

00:21:32.140 За Россию!

00:21:33.060 За президента!

00:21:33.920 За Россию!

00:21:35.440 За президента!

00:21:37.140 За Россию!

00:21:38.380 За Путина!

00:21:39.820 За Россию!

00:21:42.220 За президента!

00:21:43.480 За Россию!

00:21:44.880 За Путина!

00:21:46.300 За Россию!

00:21:47.580 За президента!

00:21:49.000 За Россию!

00:21:50.280 За Путина!

00:21:51.320 there we go francis now i've just seen that to western eyes that looks quite amateurish

00:22:03.060 dare i say it and it looks like it's presented by three fat grad students at university indeed

00:22:08.540 however first of all one of the things that people are asking in the chat is what does

00:22:12.440 the z stand for no one knows they've invented a new symbol that no one knows what it stands for

00:22:17.920 now uh because there was a russian gymnast a couple of days ago yes on the podium yes who was

00:22:24.120 roundly criticized for what for that symbol so it's a new symbol nobody knows what it means but

00:22:28.520 essentially what they're trying to do is create a new ideology and the reason i brought up the point

00:22:32.980 at the end where they're shouting for russia for putin imagine this through the western eyes how

00:22:39.460 many american soldiers do you think are wherever they are now going for america for biden or how

00:22:45.620 many people in the uk are go soldiers in the uk or people who support british soldiers would be

00:22:51.460 shouting for britain for for johnson or for boris but is that part of the reason for that isn't that

00:22:58.400 because of our democracy yes well that's my point exactly what i'm the point i'm trying to make to

00:23:04.400 you is they are i'm not saying they've got to the cult of personality stage but putin has become

00:23:12.880 not just the president not someone who's employed by the people to administer the country but he's

00:23:18.660 now seen as the head of state like the queen for queen and country right so in other words there is

00:23:24.700 a kind of permanence to this thing and there's an there's a personality issue there that they're

00:23:30.260 embracing now look people can say i'm being critical of this or not i'm just telling you what's happening

00:23:35.600 and i'm showing it to you i'm not i'm not advocating against or for whatever i'm just telling you what's

00:23:40.440 going on right so russia is building a a national identity that is based around a strong leader the

00:23:49.660 nation etc right so that's what's going on and there is no question that for vladimir putin now

00:23:56.880 this is existential he the entire country is now in the grips of uh the idea that ukraine is overrun by

00:24:05.700 nazis that these nazis have committed genocide against people in the east of ukraine uh that

00:24:12.360 this is the fight against fascism that that russia did and the soviet union did in the last century

00:24:18.240 and this is its mission he can't come back from that he can't row back from that there is no coming

00:24:24.420 back from that without a win right so there's absolutely no question in my mind that he's going

00:24:32.680 to do whatever is necessary to win the fight and unless the west is prepared to get involved which

00:24:39.100 it's not and it shouldn't in my opinion purely because that would start world war three and i don't

00:24:43.580 think that's a good idea i mean in my opinion and i could be wrong i could be wrong but in my opinion

00:24:58.040 the likelihood of ukraine winning this is very slim and what's worse about that is in my opinion the

00:25:09.900 harder the fight is all the only thing that will change is the number of casualties on both sides

00:25:15.000 it's not going to change the outcome at this point now i could be wrong but if that's what i believe and

00:25:21.240 i honestly believe that and i'm i say it for the 50th time i could be wrong but i do believe that very

00:25:25.780 strongly now based on the conversations that i've had with people who know what's going on

00:25:29.440 i'm very uncomfortable at giving what is essentially a hundred thousand dollars

00:25:34.940 to ukraine to intensify that fight whereas there will be millions of people in ukraine who are

00:25:42.460 desperately in need of humanitarian aid supplies medical equipment you know blankets all that sort

00:25:49.440 of stuff and that stuff will definitely be useful and it's definitely not going to hurt anyone

00:25:53.280 right whereas if that money from the fundraiser goes to the military in my opinion 99.9 all it

00:26:00.680 will do is end up killing more people because more people are involved now it's a it's an awful

00:26:06.120 conversation to have it's an awful conversation and i don't i don't want to be the person sitting

00:26:10.680 here go we must just let the ukrainians you know or we must force them to surrender if i was a

00:26:15.580 ukrainian or if i was in ukraine i'd be fighting for my country too but as we sit here now i i i can't

00:26:24.620 in good conscience give that money to be spent on weapons or whatever so like i say if people want to

00:26:31.740 if people are okay to trust us on this one and go with the humanitarian aid option i would be very

00:26:37.620 grateful i'd be really really grateful because we've raised an awful lot of money and that money can

00:26:41.660 do a lot of good but like i said if people want their money back because they wanted to go to the

00:26:46.240 military we'll give it back to them and we'll give them the account to which they can send it okay so

00:26:50.640 that's my ask that's what i ask of people to trust us one more time and allow us to give it to

00:26:56.680 humanitarian purposes if that's okay if not please contact us and we'll we'll give you a refund and i

00:27:02.140 think it's worth reiterating again that this is not a decision that we have taken lightly no this isn't

00:27:07.280 something that we gave a five minute conversation to this came after a lot of thought after a lot of

00:27:15.220 discussion this came from you having a lot hours long discussions with different people this is a

00:27:21.620 considered opinion and it's something i can tell is you know it's obviously very very painful for you

00:27:27.080 having to make that decision yeah well i'm sorry that i feel responsible and i am responsible

00:27:32.420 because you and anton and i talked about it and that was my idea and i asked you if you're okay

00:27:37.200 with it and you guys were okay with it but i think on reflect it was my my i it was a decision

00:27:43.660 initiated by me and you followed my lead on it and i feel like i took us down the wrong path and i feel

00:27:49.280 like i took people down the wrong path and i didn't know what i didn't know but but it was a mistake

00:27:54.260 and i regret it so i asked people to forgive me for that and to to to trust me one more time to trust us

00:28:01.240 one more time now we've talked about what's happening on the ground in russia and ukraine

00:28:06.560 now i think there's a historical part that we should talk about here as well there's one thing

00:28:12.580 that i want to talk about when we're talking about ukraine which i think is very interesting and very

00:28:17.900 important and you described it as a bit of a side issue but i still feel it's important to talk about

00:28:23.020 it and it's president zelensky yeah now he's been painted in the western media as this kind of

00:28:29.120 incredible statesman somebody who is leading you know the fight against his nation against you know

00:28:35.500 the russian nation he is everything that a good statesman should be yeah is it as clear-cut as that

00:28:42.420 i don't know do you want to criticize a man who's defending his country and leading his people

00:28:47.400 in defending it i don't i think he's an incredibly brave man whether he's making all the right

00:28:55.120 decisions i don't know as you can hear from what i've said i i don't personally think ukraine

00:29:00.460 continuing to fight to the last man is the right decision but i sit here in a comfortable london

00:29:06.000 studio he's in kiev being bombarded every day seeing his people being maimed and killed seeing children

00:29:11.700 killed uh seeing russian soldiers commit atrocities and seeing his own soldiers commit atrocity because

00:29:17.260 that's what war is it's an awful thing i'm not going to sit here and criticize zelensky one bit

00:29:22.680 he's a man and he's done what a man should do in that situation and if you're a man and you want to

00:29:28.460 you know we talk about how oh there's a sort of feminized west blah blah blah well when war comes

00:29:32.860 it's time to step the fuck up you know so i've got no criticism of president zelensky whatsoever i think

00:29:39.200 he's doing what most people would do in his position or should do in his position

00:29:44.000 is he able to make the best geostrategic decisions is he able to on two hours sleep a night and

00:29:52.480 threats of death every day may do the right thing for his country not knowing exactly what the outcomes

00:29:58.260 are is he able to balance motivating his army at the same time of thinking about what the right

00:30:04.540 peace would be that's not for me to judge man and people who are not in that position should really

00:30:10.760 just be quiet i have no criticism to make of him we can talk about all this other stuff did he make

00:30:15.740 the right decision here did he make the right but right now the man's defending his country and he's

00:30:20.140 leading his defense i've got no word of criticism of him whatsoever so that being the case we're now

00:30:27.820 going to move on and look at the historical context yeah and the geopolitical context of this so so let's

00:30:34.160 delve into it let's so the first thing to say and this is something i've been thinking about a lot let

00:30:38.980 me just see how much time we've got left so okay cool so we've got another probably 20 25 minutes before

00:30:45.020 we go to our break and questions so people can submit their questions super chats paypal all that

00:30:49.020 the one thing i've been thinking about very carefully about this situation over the last few days is

00:30:57.080 the fact that any situation has a different meaning any event has a different meaning depending on

00:31:03.720 the perspective from which you look at it and let me explain what i mean so my wife and i are about to

00:31:09.340 have our first child for my wife and i that is a huge tremendous just incredible thing it is wonderful

00:31:16.880 and we're delighted and we can't wait and it's blah blah blah right it's amazing on the level of the

00:31:22.140 individual at the level of our friends and family and community it's a really nice thing

00:31:26.880 it's lovely right but but it's not it's not the the most important thing that's ever happened in

00:31:32.700 your life right it might be the most important thing in mine but it's not in yours and certainly

00:31:36.780 in our trigger family and whatever people are happy about it but it's not the most important thing in

00:31:41.300 their life at the level of our nation it's a statistic one other baby is born right and the level of the

00:31:48.660 planet some people might argue it's a bad thing because we're adding to the overpopulation of the

00:31:55.280 world some people i'm not saying i agree with that but some people might argue so your perspective

00:32:00.080 determines how you look at things right and that's going to be important as we carry on now

00:32:05.480 it's going to take me a little time to set this up but this is really important there was a british

00:32:10.680 historian uh called arnold toinby who wrote a book called the study of history and there's a lot of

00:32:17.500 stuff in that that people think is not right or or whatever and he's since been quote unquote

00:32:22.420 somewhat discredited and people don't agree with every way that he looked at it and one of the

00:32:27.760 reasons is that what his conclusions were uh very dissonant they were very frustrating to people in

00:32:35.160 the west because his central argument essentially denied western exceptionalism and denied the idea

00:32:43.280 that western culture is better than other cultures but we don't need to get into that because i'm not

00:32:49.500 even saying what he said is true i'm just saying it's a useful metaphor for thinking about this

00:32:53.600 whole conflict because the basic the very basic concept that he came up with was the idea that

00:32:59.400 on the geopolitical stage over historical periods of time hundreds of years it is not nations that

00:33:07.200 are actors in that world but it's civilizations so think about in the current context if belgium

00:33:13.640 felt very strongly about what's happening in ukraine is there much that they could do

00:33:19.500 well they control the eu so yes well belgium i don't think belgium control the eu unless you

00:33:25.720 have some information i'm not i'm not aware of right sorry i was talking to too many hardline

00:33:29.680 breaks point taken yeah so belgium isn't deciding what the western world does you could argue that

00:33:36.860 america is deciding what the western world does right but if every other country in the western world

00:33:42.440 opposed what america did they'd really have a hard time doing it so that's why for example in the iraq war

00:33:48.460 they really were desperate to get britain on board they could have gone and done it by themselves

00:33:53.020 right but they were they were desperate to get at least britain on board and they wanted france

00:33:57.220 and germany which didn't go along in that instance so the act and that means that yes america is the

00:34:03.880 leading power in the western world right but there is also reverse feedback where the rest of the

00:34:10.420 civilization feeds back into the main one okay so so it's not belgium or britain or france that is

00:34:16.820 doing things it is western civilization and if you think about it one of the big questions people

00:34:21.340 always talk about is why is australia and new zealand considered a western country well the reason is that

00:34:28.140 we are all descendants of the western roman empire the western european christians who then spread out

00:34:34.360 around the world so latin america is part of western civilization even north america obviously part of

00:34:40.540 western civilization australia new zealand basically the descendants of the western part of the roman

00:34:45.260 empire right the other civilization is the eastern part of the roman empire the the byzantine and the

00:34:51.660 remnants of that and russia is the leading nation within that civilization and there's four others there's

00:34:57.620 the indian to the chinese uh and the two islamic ones the persians and the arabs right the sunni and the shia

00:35:04.680 or the shia and the sunni and his argument was that over historical time periods these civilizations come

00:35:13.140 into conflict with each other and they are in constant struggle for land for power for money for control of

00:35:19.780 territory etc and they all have what they consider to be their own historical space right so eastern

00:35:27.600 ukraine kiev and to the east of that is in every way unquestionably historically part of the

00:35:35.700 orthodox eastern christian civilization right and poland estonia latvia lithuania they are parts of western

00:35:46.340 christian civilization which stalin was able to steal and western ukraine as well because the western

00:35:54.560 civilization was having a bitch fest they were fighting for the for control of who controls

00:35:58.720 western civilization because remember world war ii was not a world war it started as a fight between

00:36:06.400 germany and britain and france essentially for who is the top dog in the west right germany wanted to be

00:36:11.980 top dog and britain and france didn't want to let them and that's why the conflict over poland

00:36:17.280 happened again remember i'm not saying this is true i'm just saying this is a useful frame for

00:36:22.580 thinking about the situation so hitler was willing to allow the soviet union to take latvia stone

00:36:28.500 lithuania what is now western ukraine and pieces of poland in order to allow him complete freedom to

00:36:35.120 deal with the british and with the french and once he dealt with the british and the french quite naturally

00:36:40.720 he went well how about we deal with the eastern civilization which i also want to enslave and destroy

00:36:46.200 right because this is how great civilizations work they don't they don't form permanent alliances they can

00:36:51.820 only be allied for periods of time against someone else right so the moment his that alliance outlived

00:36:57.260 itself and particularly there's some evidence that he thought stalin was about to attack

00:37:00.940 he began that war so what does that mean here well nato expansion right we talked about this and when

00:37:08.480 you asked me last time i would i know i came across as somewhat dismissive of the idea that nato expansion

00:37:14.560 and western influence in in eastern europe had had contributed to this process you asked me do you think

00:37:20.740 that's true and i said it's impossible to tell whether this would have still happened right uh and i

00:37:26.080 still agree with that because we've been living all of us in the commentary space i think in this

00:37:30.040 false dichotomy this idea that either vladimir putin is an expansionist authoritarian he was always going

00:37:37.280 to go west or nato has provoked poor fluffy vladimir putin with his bunny ears or whatever to to react

00:37:46.740 brutally of course it's perfectly possible for both of those things to be true and the civilizational

00:37:52.700 dimension will tell you if you believe it that the eastern civilization will always try to push west

00:37:58.880 when it can and the western civilization will always try to push east when it can so on that basis if you

00:38:06.360 look at it through history this basically happens in ukraine once a century right this basically happens

00:38:12.900 in ukraine once a century because it is on the border between these two great civilizations and this

00:38:18.360 is very important particularly when we talk about the nuclear side of this because you might say and

00:38:25.220 people and i sort of questioned it as well it's like well why does why does russia care about the

00:38:32.180 nato expanding into ukraine right it's like we're not going to attack them with nuclear weapons that would

00:38:37.280 be insane right that would be insane at the level of the nation right no no one thinks boris johnson is

00:38:43.540 about to launch a nuclear strike on russia right and it's insane that's true she can ask very nicely

00:38:51.140 no one thinks that but the level of civilization and history you have to look at it on a broader scale

00:38:57.520 and go look russia was invaded by the leader of western civilization in 1930 1941 in world war ii

00:39:05.880 before that by napoleon and on and on and on and on and on it goes so the idea that we've reached some

00:39:11.720 kind of new peaceful world in which no war will ever happen again we can have that illusion at the

00:39:17.920 level of the individual of the community of the nation but the level of civilization we know

00:39:23.580 historically speaking every great civilization tries to destroy its neighbors if it can or at least

00:39:29.500 compete with them in a way that will be to the detriment of the other and so at that level of

00:39:34.460 abstraction i mean if you've got to be thinking it from their point of view and i'm telling you this

00:39:42.780 because that's how they think about it i know this that's how they think about it if the west had

00:39:48.540 complete dominance and was able to destroy russia without being able to without russia being able

00:39:55.220 to destroy the western return well they might not launch nuclear weapons but they'd certainly demand

00:40:00.540 things of russia that russia doesn't want to give up they could bully russia into doing things so we

00:40:04.880 are in the new arms race and we are in a new cold war as i said two weeks ago so i think this

00:40:11.240 civilizational analysis kind of helps to understand that tension and that conflict and why of course

00:40:16.300 nato expansion contributes to russia being bullish in pushing westwards now i personally do think that

00:40:25.000 a president of a country who's been in power for 23 years who's destroyed any semblance of democracy

00:40:31.040 any semblance of the free press who said that the collapse of the soviet union is the greatest

00:40:36.060 geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century whose talk about creating the russian world etc

00:40:42.260 he was always going to move west if the west retreated and think about this what if natal wasn't in

00:40:48.540 latvia estonia lithuania poland etc right do you think he would have just sat on his hands

00:40:53.520 that's the question that i think people need to ask themselves so when people very well educated people

00:40:59.820 and who people who are making good points john meyerheimer um vladimir posner both people i really

00:41:05.420 want us to get on the show and so do you when they talk about well we've provoked putin okay let's

00:41:11.580 accept that argument if we were in the internet age in 1938 people would say well the vasai treaty

00:41:19.000 of vasai provoked hitler and i just be clear i'm not saying putin is hitler i'm not saying he has a

00:41:24.300 racial animus i'm not saying he wants to enslave everybody around the world at all but he wants

00:41:28.840 control over those territories that used to be part of his world as he sees it so there's always an

00:41:34.500 explanation of why things are happening and in any relationship as you know both parties are

00:41:39.360 responsible so i i do think we underplayed when we were talking about it a couple of weeks ago the

00:41:46.640 nato angle of this because i frankly was stuck in the false dichotomy of well either it's putin or it's

00:41:52.660 the west provoking him it's both right uh so that's kind of what i think has given me this ability to

00:41:59.300 come to acceptance that this was always going to happen and i i don't know that you know it could

00:42:06.160 have been avoided now personalities matter right russia could have had a different president

00:42:11.340 and that president could have resolved this differently america could have handled this

00:42:16.720 differently and if it had a different president president trump i don't think this would have

00:42:20.360 happened even now uh even as far as nato has provoked russia whatever he would have found some

00:42:25.300 way to negotiate or and also he would have been much scarier for for russia to upset in this situation

00:42:31.620 broadway's smash hit the neil diamond musical a beautiful noise is coming to toronto the true

00:42:38.600 story of a kid from brooklyn destined for something more featuring all the songs you love including

00:42:43.840 america forever in blue jeans and sweet caroline like jersey boys and beautiful the next musical mega

00:42:50.640 hit is here the neil diamond musical a beautiful noise now through june 7th 2026 at the princess of

00:42:57.580 wells theater get tickets at mirvish.com so that's where we are uh and that's why i think i i i'm

00:43:08.560 asking people to let us donate this money for humanitarian causes because russia cannot they

00:43:15.000 can't give up they're not going to stop they're going to flatten what they need to flatten because

00:43:20.180 for them this is existential this is civilizational for putin it's personal and the the the way things

00:43:26.640 are in russia now they're not going to give up man they're not the sanctions are only fueling

00:43:32.440 their they're emboldening them now look over a 10-year period if we keep the sanctions up yeah people

00:43:37.580 are going to get pissed off with putin for for what what's going on but they're not going to end

00:43:41.420 this war so that's my position on it i don't know if that makes any sense you know it makes complete

00:43:47.380 sense i want to talk about sanctions a little bit yeah so there's been some very intelligent people

00:43:52.900 who've been making the point that all you're doing with these sanctions is driving them further

00:43:58.300 driving putin further and further into the arms of the ccp do you agree with that because you're

00:44:04.660 cutting them off with trade from the west they're going to become isolated their only option is going

00:44:09.300 to be trading with the other superpower who are obviously the chinese i don't know enough about

00:44:15.020 that to really say what's going on i mean it would seem to me to be a reasonable conclusion yeah

00:44:18.700 but it's a worry isn't it because if you isolate russia it's what uh sun tzu said you've got to

00:44:28.040 give them the golden bridge yeah when they retreat you can't humiliate them and if you constantly

00:44:33.300 isolate them and you're going to financially cripple them then eventually that's their only option

00:44:38.220 you you yeah absolutely the only thing is i mean china from what i understand and look as i said i don't

00:44:44.000 know much about this so just take that with a pinch of salt they've played a very neutral hand on this

00:44:49.140 one they they've they've they voted they abstained in the vote the the russian tv is full of pro china

00:44:59.000 stuff right now so they're desperate to do that what the chinese are going to do we don't know because

00:45:04.400 the chinese are a much more natural enemy to russia than the west is well they share a border well they

00:45:10.560 share a massive border and the far east of russia is essentially being slowly taken over by chinese

00:45:15.400 people they're just moving there a lot of the organized crime in the east of russia is chinese

00:45:20.520 i can see you've got a joke in your mind you sound like a russian youtube yeah exactly well i used to

00:45:25.500 when i used to be a translator i used to translate a lot of stuff about the migration statistics from

00:45:29.300 that area there's a very heavy inflow of chinese labor chinese business people into the far east of russia

00:45:35.540 so whether china and russia are going to get along is an interesting question um that i don't know

00:45:41.960 enough about to answer but that's just what i know about it see to to me it's an interesting situation

00:45:49.540 because you have china on one side who superficially i thought they would have been alive allies but what

00:45:56.600 you're saying makes it seem not the case they might be they might be but we don't know but they haven't

00:46:02.560 come out and you would have thought if they're going to be allies they would have come out and

00:46:05.540 been loud and proud and you've got to remember as well like nobody actually wants nuclear war

00:46:09.820 you know this narrative that uh mad vlad or whatever i i think he he's certainly dictatorial

00:46:18.240 and he's becoming you know culty i don't think he's mad and the people in charge of china very smart

00:46:25.880 people so none of nobody wants nuclear war uh so they're going to try and stabilize the situation

00:46:31.440 as best they can and what that looks like we don't know i remember you said on question time that

00:46:37.640 if he was backed into a corner there was there was no way out he would yeah i think so yeah so let's

00:46:45.920 just explore well backed into a corner is like fucking nato troops on the border of russia that's

00:46:49.760 what i mean really yeah then of course well if nato gets involved i mean that's his only play

00:46:54.940 because nato would crush russia in the conventional war and how much do you think this is insecurity

00:47:02.440 of russia it's sort of a it's a cross way to describe it but a midlife crisis almost

00:47:09.120 you know russia looking back to the glory days of putin looking back to the glory days of the

00:47:13.980 soviet well if you talk to vladimir posner that's what he would say is the big russian complaint is

00:47:18.260 we are a great civilization and you tried to keep us in the box

00:47:22.440 we we've got the most nukes in the world why are you trying to keep us in a box why are you trying

00:47:29.840 to intrude on what is our civilizational territory why are you not not treating us as an equal that's

00:47:36.580 what people would say and you've got to understand that a huge part of the russian mindset every every

00:47:42.820 every nation in particular and every civilization they have their own myth and i don't mean myth as

00:47:49.420 in this is bollocks and we should dismiss it and laugh at it i mean i mean that an idea that we all

00:47:55.580 buy into whether consciously or subconsciously absolutely yeah and the western myth essentially

00:48:01.340 is based lately at least on the amer the american constitution and the declaration of independence and

00:48:09.420 the revolutionary war and all of that and the myth is basically this we have created the perfect

00:48:16.280 society right we have found the rules and regulations and the way of looking at the individual

00:48:22.140 and society and government that gives people maximum freedom and maximum wealth and that is the purpose of

00:48:30.160 life and we are now the luckiest most fortunate most successful people in the world the freest people

00:48:36.540 the freest people in the world and that's who we are and that is our myth and therefore we must spread

00:48:41.580 this to other people we must share this beautiful freedom and and prosperity with others that is the

00:48:48.660 western civilizational myth the russian national myth is based on a long history of trying to catch up

00:48:57.440 to the west right the the russian national myth is look we are just as good as those guys over there

00:49:03.820 but technologically and in many other ways we've been behind and they don't treat us the way we deserve

00:49:08.820 to be treated and we are strong we sacrificed 20 million lives to defeat nationalism we won that war

00:49:15.560 it was us right and and the americans landed right at the end of the war to take some of the glory

00:49:22.260 on the beaches of normandy and yeah they did a little bit that's the narrative i'm not saying it's true

00:49:27.160 um and tried to take credit for our success so yeah maybe maybe we're a bit backward and maybe

00:49:34.080 we're a bit technologically behind but we are strong we are strong how dare you not treat us as

00:49:41.180 equals that's the russian national myth so these two myths are colliding in a very big way but it's

00:49:48.280 also as well you look at the economy in russia it's the size of the italian economy is that but this is

00:49:54.020 what i'm saying to you this is exactly what i'm saying to you you are doing the western myth to

00:49:59.480 russia you're going well you're not very rich and i'm going yeah but i've got 100 however many 10 000

00:50:04.840 nuclear weapons what doesn't matter how rich i am when i can destroy the whole world and this is what

00:50:09.200 people don't understand russia has enough nuclear weapons that it doesn't need to fire them

00:50:13.040 if russia detonated its nuclear weapons in russia life on earth would end

00:50:24.020 so if you've got that kind of clout behind you you want to be taken seriously of course and that's

00:50:30.860 the issue with the nuclear age that we live in now is there are countries in the world that cannot lose

00:50:37.340 in a war doesn't mean they're going to win but they will not lose you see what i'm saying i completely

00:50:44.320 understand what you're saying and what there's quite a few people who or those people talking about

00:50:51.040 that maybe what we need to do is you know just get rid of vlad put somebody else in charge yeah

00:50:58.920 that to me seems like a completely ridiculous idea it's a misunderstanding of the situation i

00:51:05.420 understand why people are saying it because whenever there's a problem we saw it's a style

00:51:10.000 and approach no man no problem yeah the problem you've got in russia particularly with what i talked

00:51:14.920 about earlier with the way that the country is right now and also again the civilizational

00:51:19.800 dimension of how threatened they feel you remember uncle vlad there is a a sort of range of

00:51:28.480 possibilities that looks like this right and vlad is on the authoritarian violent side of that for

00:51:33.960 sure but could be further in that direction i mean you've got history correct i mean by historical

00:51:41.380 standards of of the russian nation remember what i said never had a democracy ever never had a single

00:51:47.680 democratic transition of power ever right vladimir putin but i'm not saying i agree with it i don't

00:51:54.340 like it that's why i live in the west but by the russian standards he's pretty sort of middle of the

00:52:01.260 road he's a liberal democrat he's a sort of you know i don't know he's a liberal democrat i think

00:52:08.760 that's pushing it a little bit you should know the liberal democrat party in russia is the most like

00:52:13.300 extremist pro-war bomb america party ever it's incredible but anyway he's pretty middle of the

00:52:21.180 road by the standards of russian history so careful what you wish for my friend and also here's another

00:52:26.940 thing you come at the king you best not miss what happens if you miss what happens if there's an

00:52:34.560 assassination attempt and you fail well now his life is on the line

00:52:38.500 what's he going to do then you want to roll those dice

00:52:43.940 that you do not want to see that because that's when things could get i mean things are obviously

00:52:53.940 awful yeah but that's taking it to another level yeah so look the long-term perspective is we're in a

00:53:01.920 cold war in my opinion we are going to have to win that cold war but there's going to be a few

00:53:09.760 seat of the pants moments squeaky bum times coming along the way i think

00:53:16.020 man look what the hell do i know but that's my opinion

00:53:18.700 so eventually for the long term you think that what is the future of ukraine do you think

00:53:24.160 well like i said i'm not a military expert i'm not a political expert so i'm just giving you my

00:53:29.700 opinion and it could be wrong yeah but i think russia one way or another is going to win this war

00:53:35.220 they're going to enforce their demands one way or another and their demands are to take crimea

00:53:41.700 to give independence to the two eastern regions and the other two is really what all the fuss is about

00:53:47.420 which is neutral ukraine i'm using inverted commas by which they mean going back to when russia

00:53:53.100 essentially decided who was the president of ukraine and what policies they'll have and by the way

00:53:57.640 zelensky may even stay in power they might keep him as a nominal like president but it will be the

00:54:04.300 prime minister a russian appointed guy basically who decides what happens in the country so in neutral

00:54:09.920 ukraine essentially a ukraine that does everything that russia wants and uh demilitarization which means

00:54:16.460 basically preventing the ukrainians from being strong enough to ever fight russia again removing

00:54:22.160 nato weaponry etc and what they call denazification by which they mean basically getting rid of

00:54:28.120 the as we talked about before with roger mohouse there is a historical issue in one part of ukraine

00:54:35.100 with uh ukrainian nationalists who are of the fascist variety and he wants to deal with those of course but

00:54:41.720 really it's just about getting rid of people who who've taken a pro-ukrainian nationalist approach

00:54:47.800 some of them will be nazis a small percentage tiny percentage uh like in every country there are some

00:54:53.520 people who are extremists uh and the rest of them will just be people who've been very vocally pro-ukrainian

00:54:58.640 and against the russian and it will mean also changing the cultural direction of ukraine so that they

00:55:04.620 they have russian television russian speaking tv and russian is torn in schools and blah blah blah blah blah

00:55:10.540 so become more like belarus basically uh belarus is a different case because they've got a president for life

00:55:16.920 it's a little bit different but yeah culturally probably something like that this is one of the

00:55:21.300 reasons i say that this was always going to happen because people have been persuaded by commentators

00:55:26.080 in the west to think that oh in 2014 there was a coup and then ukraine took a western direction well

00:55:31.760 first of all to say it was a western sponsored coup is not accurate the west was involved for sure

00:55:37.160 ukraine was moving in the western direction from literally 1991 i remember my own grandfather

00:55:41.900 uh who who was i i loved him i loved growing up on his farm in in ukraine in in the russian part of

00:55:49.020 ukraine and he always spoke russian all the time i knew him the moment the soviet union collapsed he

00:55:54.080 started speaking ukraine and i remember it because he used to piss the hell out of me it pissed me off

00:55:57.620 because i was like granted i don't understand what you're saying so many many people in an independent

00:56:03.540 ukraine moved in a in a westwards direction and in a pro-ukrainian direction to the point where

00:56:09.000 like my wife used to say like why all these people speaking ukrainian badly when they're russian

00:56:14.320 speakers russian speakers were trying to learn ukrainian and they wanted the wealth and the

00:56:19.920 prosperity and the democracy that that we have in the west and think about this people talk about

00:56:24.860 oh there's a there's a western coup well the president zelensky wasn't didn't come to power as a

00:56:31.400 result of a coup the person the person who came to power in 2014 as a result of the uh of the of that

00:56:37.760 revolution was they call it the revolution of dignity was a man called petro poroshenko

00:56:43.080 he was replaced in a free and fair election by vladimir zelensky vladimir zelensky who got most of

00:56:50.700 his votes from eastern and central ukraine and he ended up having i think about 75 of the total vote

00:56:57.200 he's a freely elected man in a democracy a jewish comedian so that's why they always talk about all

00:57:03.760 the nazis are running around in ukraine the people in the west can say what they want i'm not going

00:57:08.420 to argue with them anymore i've decided there's nothing i can do to change people's minds i'm

00:57:11.640 just going to say what i know and what i think and people can take it from there so that's to me why

00:57:18.260 this was always going to happen ukraine was always going to move west whether the west wanted it to or

00:57:22.340 not people in most countries that were part of the soviet union would quite like to have more

00:57:27.320 prosperity and more freedom if they possibly can and it's taken a concerted effort to keep that

00:57:32.300 process from happening and do you think the reason that russia has these types of leaders is because

00:57:40.640 it's such a huge country historically speaking yes if you think about you've got to control a massive

00:57:45.460 country where it literally takes weeks to travel somewhere and they're completely cut off and

00:57:50.620 there's no internet no phones no nothing different completely different cultures as well

00:57:54.340 different cultures different ethnicities etc you have to have very strong central leadership to keep

00:57:59.500 that thing going so absolute brutality lopping anyone's heads off who doesn't do what you say

00:58:04.400 you have to have a strong leader you have to have a strong leader and also we spent about 200 years

00:58:10.640 being ruled by the mongols so or have maybe even more than that maybe i don't remember the exact

00:58:14.640 detail my russian history of that period is not not very clear but centuries of being ruled by

00:58:20.260 mongols and the mongols had a very simple uh set of laws yeah the point there were only two things

00:58:27.160 either you're allowed to do it or the punishment for this is death that was their approach if you

00:58:33.620 ride along the road and you see somebody having a meal and you don't sit down and eat with them

00:58:38.540 you die if you are sitting alongside of the road and you're eating and you don't invite a stranger

00:58:44.440 to eat with you you die do anything else you die you refuse to pay tax you die right and this is what

00:58:51.940 they did so they ruled russia with an iron fist and you know russians have carried on with that

00:58:56.780 tradition we love a strong leader do you think part of it is that putin could see ukraine moving

00:59:06.620 westwards democratically elected and he was worried that the russian people might look at that and go

00:59:13.180 hang on a minute they're getting a democratic election you've been in power for 23 years mate

00:59:17.700 well this is why i've always said about why why russia is so worried about these color revolutions the one

00:59:24.800 in georgia the one in ukraine is like it's a bad example to the children yeah it sets a bad example

00:59:31.080 it's partly about nato getting close to russia's borders but partly it sets a terrible example to

00:59:37.400 the kids look at belarus they tried to have a color revolution there overthrow a guy been in power i

00:59:42.280 don't know 50 years or however long it's been right so it's a bad example yeah and you see he's got

00:59:49.760 quite a high approval rating hasn't he what putin now well massive of course of course people in russia

00:59:55.680 blame the west for what's happening and they blame the sanctions on the west how reliable is that

01:00:01.020 though because it's reliable really yeah because trichescu family had yeah i've made this point

01:00:06.340 before it ain't one of them right now no country is a war and people are united behind their leader

01:00:11.240 yeah so he's stronger than ever now i think internally he's stronger than ever russia is going

01:00:18.080 to get crippled by sanctions but he in terms of his control of the country yeah of course he's stronger

01:00:23.260 than that and do you think he thinks that he made the right decision i don't know i imagine like me

01:00:28.340 he's very surprised by the strength of the western response i don't think he expected it to be like

01:00:33.960 this from what i'm hearing really yeah that's interesting should we uh do q a mate yeah let's

01:00:40.500 do all right so guys we're going to come back in a few minutes with some questions from you we'll read

01:00:44.400 the super chat we'll read the paypats we'll see what you guys are saying hey francis do you like

01:00:49.920 podcasts and politics no mate i'm a real man i'm only interested in football birds and fast cars last

01:00:57.920 time you tried to drive a car you had a panic attack when you got overtaken by a granny she was driving

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01:03:45.940 and welcome back guys uh we are going to ask your questions to constantin and to myself as well

01:03:56.600 so let's start off first of all with stephanie and she says please will you talk about the no fly zone

01:04:03.420 don't we need to close the sky now not keep sitting and watching i understand the sentiment

01:04:11.660 stephanie i i really really do and i wish we could i really really do you know as you know i have family

01:04:18.340 in ukraine i keep saying it i really really i would love for us to be able to do that but you've got to

01:04:24.860 think about what that means what does a no fly zone mean it means we shoot down any planes that fly in

01:04:31.680 right so now that means we are shooting down russian planes what does that mean well that is

01:04:38.280 an act of hostility it's an act of war yeah if i'm killing your people that's an act of war so then

01:04:44.420 we're in world war three with russia and as i said yes the west can crush russia in a conventional war

01:04:51.480 if it really wanted to after millions and millions of people dying on both sides but

01:04:55.660 you've got to understand there is no there are some countries like i said before that cannot lose a war

01:05:01.240 and russia is one of them russia has several types of weapons that uh we cannot stop

01:05:11.080 it's developing a nuclear powered nuclear missile nuclear tipped submarine or torpedo which is

01:05:20.440 gigantic and it can basically swim underwater it can not swim it can move underwater uh faster than

01:05:28.040 it can be intercepted and attack uh coastal cities uh like los angeles new york etc and there's nothing

01:05:35.640 we can do to stop it it has uh hypersonic missiles that no anti-aircraft system can intercept so if russia

01:05:43.560 wants to destroy the west it can and if the west wants to destroy russia it can so if you want to get

01:05:48.240 involved in world war three that's how it's going to end so i am my heart bleeds for ukraine and i wish

01:05:56.300 we could do do something to help and every ukrainian i speak to says please we need to close the sky

01:06:02.340 but do we i mean we can't kill everybody in the world i mean i sometimes feel like doing it but

01:06:12.140 for entirely different reasons yeah well thank you well thank you stephanie so let's uh let's

01:06:20.380 let's talk about this let's talk about a question from dan mcbean he goes when ukraine

01:06:27.080 is inverted commas defeated what are the chances of a long-running ongoing insurgent war against

01:06:34.840 russian targets supported by the west i think it's high uh based on the conversations that i've had

01:06:41.060 um because of how brave and courageous and spirited the ukrainians are and that's my concern with the

01:06:48.580 war running longer and longer what you're going to have is more atrocities on both sides you're going

01:06:53.220 to see that more and more people uh become go beyond the point of no return or in terms of how

01:07:01.160 they feel they've seen their family members killed they've seen their cities destroyed um and that

01:07:06.520 will only mean that this you know that uh horror continues i think that's very likely and i think

01:07:14.280 the longer the war goes on the worse that partisan war or insurgency or whatever you want to call it

01:07:19.420 will be which is one of the reasons i'm not sure extending it is a good thing that that is the

01:07:26.300 worry isn't it that putin will then take over and then what will eventually happen is that it there'll

01:07:32.560 be just a permanent guerrilla war well it won't be permanent but look if this was adolf hitler who

01:07:39.320 wanted to enslave ukrainians and exterminate some racial minority and whatever we'd be having a very and

01:07:44.780 it was a non-nuclear age we'd be having a very different conversation right now right but i don't

01:07:51.040 think we can start a nuclear war for someone who wants to control some territory now this sounds

01:07:56.720 awful i say again my heart bleeds for ukraine i want to do everything i can to support people there

01:08:01.940 that's why we raised a ton of money that's why i've gone on tv and blah blah blah i i want to do

01:08:06.400 everything i can i'm just being very honest with people as i always try to be about what i see

01:08:11.780 based on conversations that i've had based on the military situation based on what's happening

01:08:16.540 in ukraine based on what's happening in russia if that makes me an appeaser i guess i guess i'm an

01:08:22.540 appeaser i don't know i don't know what to say it's just i'm torn but but but the practical reality

01:08:27.600 is this we can't start world war three and you in the nuclear age and and creating a no-fly zone

01:08:33.700 would do that okay um here's a question from xz born he goes what's the difference between

01:08:43.840 american billionaires and russian oligarchs which is a good question yeah i think uh russian oligarchs

01:08:50.960 well it depends what you mean russian oligarchs are russian and ukrainian oligarchs so russian

01:08:55.580 oligarchs are at this point essentially an appointed position you don't rise to the position of billionaire

01:09:02.940 you get appointed to it by vladimir putin so the people who are billionaires in russia now are

01:09:07.840 people who he is handpicked to be billionaires and the people who used to be billionaires that he

01:09:12.840 didn't like either in prison or dead or in exile right so billionaire is is it's it's like head of

01:09:20.660 the civil service or whatever it's like an the the leader of the country appoints them uh in ukraine

01:09:26.240 it's different in ukraine they have a tremendous amount of influence on on the country and the power

01:09:31.920 and and the way it's the country's government uh american billionaires i imagine that american

01:09:39.980 billionaires other than the owners of the big tech companies have far less influence on what happens

01:09:43.900 in american politics than than they do in russia or ukraine particularly in ukraine well thank you

01:09:49.740 that's a great answer tiffany richardson asks how are we going to convince anyone to give up their

01:09:54.300 nukes in exchange for inverted commas our protection ever again after this well if you're a leader of any

01:10:00.520 country that has nuclear weapons now because the reason she's asking this question is in 1994 uh

01:10:06.420 russia and the western country signed the budapest memorandum which in which ukraine agreed to give

01:10:12.460 up its nuclear weapons in exchange for guarantees of western protection and of russian protection

01:10:17.020 right so everybody said look just give away your nukes and then we'll protect you that way this country

01:10:23.980 which is quite unstable and not clear politically blah blah doesn't have nukes well if ukraine had nukes

01:10:29.340 this invasion wouldn't be happening right so how are you going to commit well that's why everyone

01:10:33.560 wants a nuclear bomb because it's the one way you guarantee you don't get invaded

01:10:37.160 good point fodsax asks when the soviet union broke up and they actually had a reasonable man as leader

01:10:48.780 was there more we could and should have done to bring russia further in from the cold people will argue

01:10:56.460 that uh i remember as a kid growing up in moscow eating american donated humanitarian aid right

01:11:03.160 america did try to help what america didn't want to do and this is something posner talks about with

01:11:08.560 the wolfitz doctrine america didn't want russia to become a competitor and so it tried to keep russia in

01:11:13.640 the box what would have happened if russia hadn't been kept in a box well no one knows answer to that

01:11:19.620 question one possibility is we'd be living in peace and prosperity and friendship and whatever

01:11:23.920 the other possibility is russia would have gone back erased itself and gone oh look well why is

01:11:29.940 estonia latvia lithuania poland why aren't they part of our sphere influence anymore right and if

01:11:36.320 nato wasn't there to protect those countries that could well be the case now right because the loss of

01:11:45.060 the warsaw pack countries was very painful for the soviet union it was a very painful thing for the the

01:11:51.020 civilizational identity but they were sort of willing to give it up because traditionally speaking

01:11:56.500 those countries were part of western christian civilization and that's why okay katie kaling

01:12:05.220 has asked what do you think the best outcome for ukrainian people as well as the west can hope for

01:12:11.860 at this point look again i just i need to preface everything by saying i'm not an expert i don't know but

01:12:18.300 here's my opinion right based on the conversations that i've had and what i understand i think the

01:12:22.300 best outcome is basically what's on the table for ukraine now sadly and that is they've put up a

01:12:27.800 great fight they've shown that it's not going to be easy maybe the russians will take kiev and then

01:12:34.540 they'll surrender i don't know but it's basically going to be russia taking crimea independence for the

01:12:40.700 two eastern regions and a cultural redirecting of ukraine eastwards towards russia and the sort

01:12:48.540 of permanent puppet russian government what can i say i mean that i don't see a better outcome

01:12:56.660 the the reason that i don't see a better outcome is you know that i don't see how you're going to

01:13:02.720 get russia to to give up on those ambitions especially now when when yes they're taking great

01:13:07.920 casualties yes the economy is taking great damage but they are making progress and they

01:13:11.660 you know it's only been two weeks man and they're making progress towards what they're trying to do

01:13:18.620 which is encircle the army take the big cities once they do that yeah you can have an insurgency but

01:13:23.680 what's that going to change do you think it's made the west look impotent

01:13:28.560 i think the reality is is that on this one the west kind of was impotent what it did though it

01:13:41.300 kept signaling weakness and so it's allowed russia to do this but i've been surprised by the strength

01:13:46.820 of the response if you remember i said two weeks ago in perhaps somewhat melodramatically that nato is

01:13:51.400 over i don't know that that's not true but it could not be true it could be not true in that

01:13:59.040 you know i don't know what would happen if like if russia invaded lithuania today i'm pretty sure

01:14:04.920 we'd strike back if russia invades lithuania five years from now well it depends on what's happened

01:14:09.800 in the world do you see what i'm saying yeah i do so it's hard to say i don't i don't feel that the

01:14:14.360 west has been particularly weak on this it's done everything it can do you know who's actually and i

01:14:19.940 never thought i'd say this come out of this with some credit it's all but it's boris johnson he has

01:14:25.340 and by the way look i i texted nigel farage the other day going you know we had that big argument

01:14:30.960 i'm starting to see your point you know and just for the viewers and the listeners well he was saying

01:14:39.720 we should say to to russia we won't let ukraine join nato would that have stopped it it probably

01:14:46.100 would have stopped it in the interim yeah but then you end up in the same thing where

01:14:49.780 russia basically then takes over ukraine either culturally or otherwise one way or another russia

01:14:55.060 would be in control that's what it means to say ukraine won't be joining nato so i think this was

01:15:00.620 always going to happen maybe in the short term this could have been avoided maybe we i can see you've got

01:15:04.540 another joke coming no no no i just uh i was discussing with my very left-wing girlfriend about

01:15:10.500 this and she put forward uh that exact argument and i said you have the exact same opinion as

01:15:17.760 nigel farage i bet she was happy she was furious well she went but it's it's an interesting point

01:15:24.120 isn't it it's an interesting point i i don't think that would have avoided this issue in the long run

01:15:28.900 uh do you think it was inevitable really the moment the nukes were given up the moment they didn't

01:15:35.600 become part of nato ukraine's fate was sealed i know it's a horrible question yeah i do because for

01:15:41.540 the reasons that i told you because the people of ukraine wanted to move west it's what they it's

01:15:46.840 not the cia didn't manipulate them into doing that right they want like my granddad who was speaking

01:15:52.620 ukrainian and what and and lots of other people they wanted to move in a direction of having their own

01:15:58.520 country that was not aligned with russia that's what they wanted so they and as long as they had

01:16:02.780 democracy they would keep electing leaders that would push the country in that direction so this

01:16:07.140 was always going to happen donna willis asked do you think putin will retaliate soon against the west

01:16:14.460 because of the of sanctions and the support we have given ukraine and if so in what form well i think

01:16:22.540 they will probably try to retaliate against some of the the recent sanctions like the oil embargo and

01:16:27.840 all of that although it's only britain and america really that's done that the countries that actually

01:16:31.820 buy most of their oil and gas are in europe and they're not doing that so we'll have to see um we'll

01:16:37.800 have to see probably i'd imagine so okay they did last time in 2014 they like banned polish apple or some

01:16:43.960 shit uh uh uh uh the corporate withdrawal is from the cancel culture playbook and this is from japan

01:16:53.300 22222 you for or against does it make putin weaker stronger would it be there's a question that

01:17:01.180 already asked would it be dangerous having a russia unplugged from the west separate internet etc

01:17:06.480 i mean it's already there so i think it's very difficult to say there are two options this can

01:17:16.460 go the two ways this can go one is russia for some reason just goes you know what this isn't worth it

01:17:21.480 we're pulling out and then we we go through a process of de-escalation i don't see that happening

01:17:26.720 the other process unfortunately i see happening is russia carries on we are in cold war ii and

01:17:34.640 we're gonna have to win and the way we defeated the soviet union is by forcing them to destroy their

01:17:41.040 own economy yeah sending them bankrupt basically basically so maybe that's what happens edvard gotto

01:17:48.760 asked hey hey you do you guys think world war three has started i'm low-key kind of scared to be honest

01:17:56.120 and this might seem like people will look at this and go don't be ridiculous there's a hell of a lot

01:18:01.340 of people out there who are very very anxious about this who are terrified who are thinking is this the

01:18:07.000 start actually of world war three well if it is then we're all gonna die all right mate keep it light

01:18:16.300 in which case if i say now that i don't think it is i'm going to be right either way either it isn't

01:18:22.380 or we're all dead in which case no one is going to come back and go i told you so uh i'm going to say

01:18:28.380 no i don't think it is but we are as close to as we've come for a very long time yeah for 60 years

01:18:36.040 for exactly 60 years since the cuba missile crisis we haven't been closer than we are now to world war

01:18:41.340 three but you don't think this is no because there's a lack of appetite on all sides for war

01:18:48.540 basically yeah okay bam bam buffer asked a question asked a very good question actually he goes how

01:18:55.180 about compromise and send a loot specifically to help injured ukrainian military they send the loot

01:19:02.040 yeah the money that we've raised so some of it yeah yeah well the charities we'll give it to will

01:19:07.060 partly be for that yeah okay so i think that's a very very good idea so thank you very much uh

01:19:13.700 uh bam bam buffer peter ryan has sent one i don't know how true it is uh there might be a rumor that

01:19:21.100 you've heard from your family in russia he goes there have been some reports that uncle vlad has cancer

01:19:26.420 big if true there's nothing more terrifying than a man with nothing to lose is that a rumor that is

01:19:33.480 going around russia is that i haven't heard that okay uh human hue m bean goes it sounds like you've

01:19:43.080 given up on ukraine i realize putin will probably take it but i thought it meant but i thought making

01:19:49.600 it as hard as possible was the best option for everyone in the long term open to your thoughts

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TRIGGERnometry - March 09, 2022

War in Ukraine： What's Next？＊Recorded Live on 9th March 2022＊

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