00:02:39.560Like what do we in the West not know and not understand about China that we really should?
00:02:46.180We in the West started engaging China really in about the 1990s and particularly after 2001 when China entered the World Trade Organization and a lot of Western companies sort of rushed into China to make some money.
00:03:00.360we thought that China would be like Japan or like Taiwan or like Singapore in a post-World War II
00:03:11.020period that is that if we engage with China if we help China get richer and help its people get
00:03:18.680richer they would see how they would see the superior superiority of western systems and they
00:03:26.340would become more like us in an Asian way like Japan has or South Korea has, but that China would
00:03:31.700essentially follow that path. I think what we didn't realise was that even though the Chinese
00:03:38.020wanted a big slice of Western prosperity, they have pretty much rejected everything else. The
00:03:43.940Chinese Communist Party still remains in power, not only that they have found extremely clever
00:03:50.360ways of remaining in power while still getting rich as a country. And as a result, we find
00:03:55.720ourselves now in a situation where China truly is the most comprehensive threat to the West
00:04:04.340that we're facing really for two or three generations.
00:04:09.220And John, you were talking about the ingenious ways the CCP managed to hold on to power.
00:04:16.560The CCP, and I have to give them credit, they're very good students of history because they
00:04:21.520looked at what happened in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union.
00:04:24.480They looked at what happened in their own country in 1989 when there were countrywide protests calling for democracy.
00:04:32.040And what they realised was that as you get richer as a country, as you industrialise, you cannot alienate yourself.
00:04:41.060That is, if you're a ruling party, you cannot alienate yourselves from the rising middle class elites.
00:04:47.540In fact, if you want to remain in power, you have to co-opt to rising middle class elites.
00:04:51.960And the lesson they learned from Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union, and also from what happened in the 1980s in their own country, was that if you allow the emergence of an independent middle class, that is a middle class that doesn't need you, doesn't need the party for its prosperity and its security, you'll inevitably lose power.
00:05:13.780So what the Chinese have done since really from the mid-1990s is that the party has ensured that it has become the primary dispenser of economic and social opportunity in the country.
00:05:27.900And if you go to China today, if you deal with Chinese elites today, Chinese elites and a well-to-do are the strongest supporters of the Chinese Communist Party,
00:05:37.060which is the opposite of what happened in the Soviet Union in Eastern Europe and the 1980s in
00:05:42.200the People's Republic of China itself. The elites in China are now those who want the party to
00:05:48.760remain in power because they're the ones that actually do best in China and Chinese society.
00:05:55.580So from that point of view, the Chinese Communist Party has been quite clever about it. They have
00:06:01.820engineered a situation where the future of the party is tied to the future of elites in the
00:06:07.040country. And this is a very dangerous situation for us, because that's not what we thought would
00:06:13.260happen when we started to engage with China. John, when I was in China, admittedly, it was
00:06:20.300about 2006, 2007. One thing that surprised me was exactly what you were saying, which in many ways,
00:06:27.460it's a capitalist paradise. You can go and you can go to Louis Vuitton, you can go to all these
00:06:33.660western shops and spend all this money on luxury goods you can have almost a western life as long
00:06:40.880as you don't criticize the party you can enjoy a wonderful capitalist life is it so that's very
00:06:47.320much the heart of their success isn't it well uh it's more than that it's true that uh if it's true
00:06:55.460that there is a people speak of a social compact that the middle classes can buy chanel and in the
00:07:01.620process they don't question the political structure but it's more than that because to get rich in
00:07:06.960china you have to be well connected to the party you know if you look at the chinese communist
00:07:12.360party it is actually the largest membership organization in the world there's over 100
00:07:17.640million members and there's an estimated uh 50 to 60 million people lining up to join or who are
00:07:25.360putting applications to join now why do they do that because when you join the ccp
00:07:30.700you start getting connections into the business world into the social world you know I've had
00:07:38.300Chinese students who are obviously part of the elites that when they write up their CV when the
00:07:44.700first things they put is their Chinese Communist Party membership number and they do that because
00:07:49.740if you're a CCP member you are given more privileges more opportunities scholarships
00:07:57.960clerkships internships into the best companies it is a paradise if you like for ccp members
00:08:05.660but it is not a paradise for those who are not ccp members but the irony is that it's called
00:08:11.920the chinese communist party but it is the rich in china who are joining the chinese communist party
00:08:17.880not the poor not the peasants but once again that is a deliberate engineered social construction
00:08:25.080in order to tie the future of these elites to the future of the CCP.
00:08:30.540And that is an ingenious way of maintaining power
00:08:34.000because you're not doing it through force,
00:08:36.320which is going to upset people, anger people, and quite rightly so.
00:08:40.700You're doing it through soft power and encouraging people
00:08:44.780by essentially manipulating their behaviour.
00:08:48.360Well, you're essentially aligning the interests and incentives
00:08:51.920of the rising classes and the upper classes to yourself or, you know, that is the party.
00:08:59.420Now, this has been done before. You know, it's not a comparison often made, but here I'm talking
00:09:06.080just about the political economic structure, not necessarily the foreign policy aspects.
00:09:13.440But the political economic structure of modern day China, it's quite similar to
00:09:18.960Mussolini's Italy or Hitler's Germany in the sense that the elites are very closely aligned
00:09:28.500to the party, are often members of the party, and it's a very cosy arrangement at the top.
00:09:34.560Of course, there are the majority of people in China who are not doing as well as those elites,
00:09:41.740but they don't get a say. That's not how China works. So that is essentially how the CCP
00:09:48.600has remained in power as the country has got richer.
00:09:52.600It sounds like, John, it's basically a country where the ruling class have a very strong grip
00:09:57.960on the country and are able to dictate very powerfully and very easily what that country
00:10:02.660is going to do. Now, put that together with the comment you made only a few minutes ago,
00:10:06.800that China is the biggest threat to the Western generations. Talk to us about that,
00:10:11.300because you've got this gigantic country. Most of the equipment we're using to record this is made
00:10:16.800in that country. We were all told here in the West that, you know, it's great, we're just trading and
00:10:21.880we exchange this and that, and that's wonderful. Why do you say China is such a threat to the West?
00:10:29.700It's a threat to the West, both in terms of its capability and its intention. If you look at its
00:10:36.180capability, yes, we know about the growth of its military, the People's Liberation Army.
00:10:41.040And it's, in fact, statistically, China is engaging in the most rapid re-militarization of any country in absolute and relative terms in peacetime history, right?
00:10:54.340So that in itself should cause you to ask, you know, why are they doing that?
00:10:59.260But China's not just a military power.
00:12:10.940That's just the goal that they've had.
00:12:12.240They see themselves as the natural, permanent,
00:12:18.840dominant power in Asia, and they see the Americans
00:12:23.520who were there after World War II as the imposters.
00:12:28.500Now, unfortunately, in Asia, there are probably 40-plus countries.
00:12:34.140very few of those countries actually want China to dominate, which is why most of those countries
00:12:39.640are quite happy for the United States to continue to maintain its militaries in a region. But that's
00:12:46.080what China wants. It wants to be the undisputed number one country. And it wants to impose its
00:12:53.020institutions and its processes and norms in the region. So that just doesn't, that is
00:13:00.880irreconcilable with most of what we want, not just what the West wants, but what most Asian
00:13:07.080countries want. And hence, that's why I consider China the most comprehensive and serious threat.
00:13:16.580And before I interrupted you, you were going to talk about things other than the military
00:13:20.780buildup. What else were you going to mention? Well, what I was going to say was China's
00:13:26.940military buildup has been terrifyingly impressive but it's it's economic and technological
00:13:33.840rise and I should mention on the back of western know-how and capital but it's been this economic
00:13:41.420and technological rise which is really the source of its power because you know we can't we as in
00:13:49.860the West or other Asian countries who fear China, nevertheless, we cannot treat China like we treat
00:13:57.940Russia, because China is just far too important to too many countries. It's the largest trading
00:14:03.360partner of over 100 countries. And so, you know, we want to find ways of constraining China's
00:14:12.760options and stopping it from doing certain things. But we can't actually isolate it in the way that
00:14:19.140we can isolate Russia as we're doing now. So that's the sort of policy and even sort of
00:14:26.260moral dilemma as to what it is we should do about China.
00:14:31.000And John, there'll be a lot of people going, you see, this is the problem with globalisation is
00:14:36.180that all these interconnected supply chains, you become over-reliant on countries like China. And
00:14:42.540when they become hostile, or if they become hostile, it means that you are vulnerable to
00:14:47.000them economically? You know, I think globalisation really arose in the 1990s onwards, you know,
00:14:54.320in terms of the enormous interdependence of countries, supply chains, markets, capital,
00:15:00.420and so on. And if you think about that period of history, the Soviet Union had fallen,
00:15:05.380there was a complacency in the West and other parts of the world that essentially ideological
00:15:10.700differences don't matter anymore, right? So when we welcome China into the global trading system,
00:15:18.800when we help China become such a dominant player in global supply chains, we didn't think at all
00:15:26.220about geopolitics. We didn't think at all about a clash of values. We just assumed that all that
00:15:31.340mattered was that if we could help the Chinese get richer, and if we could benefit from that,
00:15:38.680then everything would be fine. So, you know, it's not that globalization has benefited
00:15:44.100the world immensely, but we forgot to think about who it is that we should
00:15:51.820become interdependent with. You know, who is it that we can actually trust? Essentially,
00:15:59.840we forgot about geopolitics and geopolitics will always come back to bite.
00:16:05.180And John, I know you watched my interview with our mutual friend, John Anderson, and I was making very much the same point that people in different countries have different values, surprisingly enough, and different agendas and different ways of doing things.
00:16:17.620And I can speak a little bit about what that's like as someone who comes from Russia.
00:16:22.540From the perspective of China, when you talk about ideology and ideological differences, can you explain to people what is it that the CCP want?
00:16:31.640How are they different from us here in the West?
00:16:33.380What is this ideology and ideological divides that you're talking about?
00:16:38.280Maybe the best way I can sort of summarise it, and it's not a crude summary.
00:26:10.160But when it comes to those higher end, higher value added areas of even just economy, China does nowhere near as well as Western and open societies.
00:26:28.560And John, coming back to the geopolitics side of this for a moment,
00:26:32.040you talked earlier about China and the CCP particularly learning lessons
00:26:36.120from the Soviet experience and the protests that they saw in China itself in the 80s.
00:26:43.960What is the situation with China vis-a-vis what Russia is doing in Ukraine now?
00:26:48.980A lot of people, myself included, who are not experts,
00:26:51.800thought that China would jump on that distraction as an opportunity to make a move on Taiwan.
00:26:56.660One, they have supported Russia, but not as overtly as some people thought.
00:27:03.300What are the lessons they're learning from it?
00:27:04.900And what do you think they're planning to do as a result?
00:27:08.000If you remember, Xi Jinping went to Moscow and about two or three weeks before the Russian invasion declared a no-limits pact with Vladimir Putin.
00:27:19.620now at the time China and Russia and the American and and Western intelligence for that matter
00:27:26.900were off the view that if Russia invaded Ukraine would fall within three four days
00:27:32.980right so at that time China believed that this was a real moment in history that you know if
00:27:42.600If you look at a lot of the Chinese documents
00:27:45.780and proclamations at the time, they were talking,
00:27:50.680using phrases like the great unseen changes in history.
00:27:54.080What they were talking about was that we're entering
00:27:56.120a turning point in history where the West,
00:27:59.200led by a dysfunctional United States, were on the way
00:28:03.800and that the authoritarian societies who were far more determined
00:31:15.700And, you know, as you probably remember, there was a period of time where the world was trying
00:31:22.660to decide, you know, who was the real China?
00:31:24.660Was it the People's Republic of China based in Beijing or was it the Republic of China based in Taipei?
00:31:30.860Now, most people now recognize the People's Republic of China as, you know, the China, but nevertheless do not want Taiwan to be subjugated or integrated into mainland China.
00:31:42.260Now, from the Chinese Communist Party's point of view, this is one of those unfinished business issues that it's somewhat irrational in the sense that the amount of resources they put into preparing to take Taiwan is irrational, even though Taiwan has huge strategic value.
00:32:01.080But nevertheless, the fact that it's the number one priority for the Chinese Communist Party, it's one of those somewhat irrational things, but it's just stems from, I guess, the period of history of the civil war and this notion of unfinished business.
00:32:19.040The last thing I would say is that in the 90s and early 2000s, you know, the Chinese always wanted Taiwan, but what's changed in the last 10 years is that you've now got a leader, Xi Jinping, who has staked his capacity to be president for life, amongst other things, on taking Taiwan, right?
00:32:45.040that's never happened before you know when you look at xi jinping's predecessors they sort of
00:32:49.480just said we want taiwan but let future generations decide you know work it out how we actually get
00:32:56.680taiwan xi jinping's the first leader to actually say he wants to resolve the taiwan question
00:33:02.260and and in in his time and that it cannot be left unresolved so for for a leader to stake his
00:33:10.820his claim to be leader for life on Taiwan,
00:34:39.940but that he would use his Belt and Road initiative
00:34:42.420to allow China to dominate the entire region and so on.
00:34:46.900Now, when you make those sorts of promises
00:34:48.840and you've got a lot of people gunning for your fall,
00:34:52.140you tend to become dangerous and desperate.
00:34:56.600So I think Xi Jinping has certainly added an extra layer of risk
00:35:02.780in terms of what might happen with China in the future.
00:35:06.740and let's let's delve into the human rights issues with China because I don't think when
00:35:12.900people who live in the west they grew up in the west really understands what it means to grow up
00:35:18.160and live in a place like China so what is it like for people to live in China what happens if you
00:35:24.740criticize the regime and you've used the word go to jail but what does that actually mean again
00:35:30.820Well, I mean, you know, obviously there are the human rights abusers going against certain ethnicities and people such as the Uyghurs and Tibetans, right?
00:35:42.960So that's just your, not to make light of it, that's your garden variety genocide, right?
00:45:21.260And just very quickly, we've seen the impact of Chinese power
00:45:26.680and Chinese money beyond actually the region.
00:45:29.060So, for example, when NBA players speak out in support of China or things of that nature, what do you make of how China is responding or playing part in the Western culture wars and all of that side of things?
00:45:45.500when you've got Chinese kind of saying that America is a deeply racist society
00:45:51.200while putting Uyghurs in concentration camps.
00:45:53.960Is China playing a clever part in all of that, do you think?