TRIGGERnometry - Why We Keep Losing the Immigration Debate

00:00:00.480 Why we keep losing the immigration debate.

00:00:07.420 Earlier this year, at a small private gathering of political and media leaders in Australia,

00:00:12.260 I was asked what advice I might have for Australians with the power to shape their nation's future.

00:00:17.460 I had just explained that while their country is not as advanced as Britain and America

00:00:21.140 in terms of its cultural malaise, it does appear to be on the same downward trajectory.

00:00:26.680 Having dispensed with the standard British response that I have no idea why any of them should listen to my opinion,

00:00:31.980 I proceeded with the standard Russian response of telling them exactly what I think as bluntly as possible.

00:00:37.180 The most important thing you can do for the future of your society, I said,

00:00:40.800 is not to allow immigration to become a moral issue.

00:00:44.340 On the surface, this might appear to be a strange and somewhat esoteric response.

00:00:48.800 Surely what politicians need to do is take control of the border,

00:00:52.940 ensure border security and stop the boats.

00:00:55.680 Get in control of our borders.

00:00:57.180 We need to smash the gangs.

00:00:58.500 We have to stop the invasion.

00:01:00.840 Stop the boats.

00:01:02.180 These populist slogans are great for retail politics,

00:01:04.860 and they allow charismatic anti-immigration politicians like Nigel Farage and Donald Trump to win votes.

00:01:10.580 But no matter how many votes they win,

00:01:12.840 culturally, the fight for a sensible immigration policy is still being lost.

00:01:16.800 Why?

00:01:17.440 Because immigration is no longer seen as a policy issue.

00:01:20.720 It has become a matter of morality.

00:01:22.260 You may recall my recent appearance on the BBC's Moral Maze,

00:01:26.160 in which I attempted to elicit from an academic his view of the negative trade-offs of mass immigration.

00:01:32.180 I might as well have asked him about the negative trade-offs of curing cancer.

00:01:35.360 It's a universal truth that all policies have positive and negative sides.

00:01:40.320 What would you say are the negative trade-offs of mass immigration?

00:01:43.700 Just to go back to the point, actually...

00:01:44.840 No, no, let's not go back to the point.

00:01:46.060 I'm asking you a different question.

00:01:46.640 You actually have conducted numerous interviews with people in that area.

00:01:51.220 Dr. Connell, with respect, I'm asking you a different question now.

00:01:54.140 What would you say are the negative trade-offs of mass immigration?

00:01:57.020 I think it's characteristic of this debate that actually you're not allowing a conversation.

00:02:01.820 No, you're not answering my question.

00:02:03.840 That's all that's happening here.

00:02:05.700 What are the negative trade-offs of mass immigration?

00:02:07.980 That's the only question I might ask you.

00:02:08.940 I think the negative trade-offs is that, unfortunately,

00:02:10.660 people like yourself do tend to mobilize these negative racist tropes

00:02:15.000 in order to progress their own individual careers.

00:02:17.600 Of the very few skills I have to my name,

00:02:20.040 understanding how to win a debate is perhaps one I can claim without false modesty.

00:02:23.860 And I can tell you that as long as this framing is accepted in public discourse,

00:02:28.920 those of us who want a sensible immigration policy will keep losing.

00:02:32.840 What most people fail to understand is that you do not win debates with arguments.

00:02:36.940 You win by setting the frame.

00:02:38.860 You saw the power of this technique during COVID with your own eyes.

00:02:42.620 All the authorities had to do was set the frame correctly,

00:02:46.180 and your fellow citizens abandoned reason and rationality in the blink of an eye.

00:02:50.980 How did they do it exactly?

00:02:52.040 In a battle, the deciding factor between comparable armies

00:02:55.340 is often the territory on which the fight happens.

00:02:58.240 A general who is able to place his troops in an advantageous position

00:03:01.600 will usually win, even against a bigger, more powerful army.

00:03:05.420 This is how Edward the Black Prince secured victory at the Battle of Poitiers,

00:03:08.900 or, for a more contemporary reference,

00:03:11.000 how a small number of Spartans were able to hold back a Persian horde

00:03:14.580 in the Battle of Thermopylae, on which the movie 300 is based.

00:03:18.260 The same thing is true of debate.

00:03:19.820 The frame is the set of unspoken assumptions

00:03:22.940 which determine how the conversation happens.

00:03:25.580 Whoever controls the frame controls the way that the debate goes.

00:03:29.500 During the pandemic, the framing was simple.

00:03:31.940 All deaths from COVID are unacceptable,

00:03:33.860 and since all deaths from COVID are unacceptable,

00:03:36.320 this is the only thing we must all focus on.

00:03:38.580 Notice how nobody ever said this out loud.

00:03:41.340 Politicians never went on TV and said,

00:03:43.300 the only thing that matters is COVID deaths,

00:03:45.520 and our goal is to reduce them to zero.

00:03:47.580 Because if they had,

00:03:48.920 a lot of sensible people would have asked questions

00:03:51.040 about how reasonable and realistic that was.

00:03:53.480 Instead, they simply acted like it was self-evident

00:03:55.900 that reducing COVID deaths was the only thing that mattered.

00:03:59.000 And before long, so did everyone else.

00:04:01.200 This is why perfectly good arguments about proportionality,

00:04:04.420 personal liberty, and bodily autonomy

00:04:05.980 had absolutely no impact on public policy

00:04:09.140 outside of Sweden and a handful of American states.

00:04:12.360 Once you have drilled into people's heads

00:04:13.960 that the only thing we ought to focus on

00:04:15.720 is the number of people who die from COVID,

00:04:18.400 all else follows.

00:04:19.600 The reason the debate about immigration

00:04:21.200 is as absurd as it is in the Western world

00:04:23.400 is that we are operating within

00:04:25.060 a morality-based framing of the issue.

00:04:27.400 As long as we continue to do so,

00:04:29.220 we will continue to lose.

00:04:30.820 What is the frame?

00:04:32.200 Immigration is a good thing.

00:04:33.920 Therefore, anyone who opposes immigration

00:04:35.600 is a bad person.

00:04:37.260 Once this framing is set,

00:04:38.540 arguments are largely irrelevant.

00:04:40.820 You can quote statistics, facts, figures

00:04:42.740 till you're blue in the face,

00:04:44.060 but all you'll ever be is an angry racist

00:04:46.280 using numbers to support your immoral position.

00:04:49.000 The only way to win this debate

00:04:50.320 is to break the frame.

00:04:51.900 The correct framing of this issue,

00:04:53.460 like any other,

00:04:54.260 is that immigration policy is a slider.

00:04:56.900 You move it to the left when you need more immigration

00:04:59.140 and you move it to the right when you want less.

00:05:01.740 Most Western countries have gone through periods

00:05:03.860 when they were absolutely desperate

00:05:05.460 for more people to come in.

00:05:06.800 Australia, with which we began our discussion,

00:05:09.820 responded to the end of World War II

00:05:11.580 by deciding it must increase its population

00:05:14.240 to avoid the threat of another invasion

00:05:16.280 and launched an immigration program

00:05:18.100 under the slogan

00:05:19.020 Populate or Perish.

00:05:21.060 Britain, too, increased migration after the war,

00:05:23.600 encouraging colonial people to take jobs

00:05:25.600 that could not be filled by British people.

00:05:27.580 Canada, the US, and many European countries

00:05:29.600 have encouraged migration within living memory

00:05:31.940 for perfectly good reasons.

00:05:33.940 In other words,

00:05:35.160 the attempt to present the history of our countries

00:05:37.200 as one continual process

00:05:38.720 of moving from a restrictionist past

00:05:40.740 to a progressive utopia

00:05:42.380 is not just inaccurate,

00:05:44.120 it is purposefully misleading.

00:05:45.900 This framing deliberately conceals the reality

00:05:48.100 that the right level of immigration

00:05:49.840 varies over time.

00:05:51.620 It is therefore unwise and counterproductive

00:05:53.720 to argue against immigration

00:05:55.780 or for immigration.

00:05:57.640 The correct frame is that immigration

00:05:59.420 is good when it's good

00:06:00.500 and bad when it's bad.

00:06:01.940 And as before,

00:06:03.180 all else follows.

00:06:04.320 Once this framing is accepted,

00:06:06.100 winning the remaining argument

00:06:07.240 becomes simple.

00:06:08.520 If immigration policy

00:06:09.540 is about making sure

00:06:10.460 that immigration is beneficial

00:06:11.700 to our country,

00:06:13.020 the correct number

00:06:13.800 of illegal immigrants is zero.

00:06:15.500 The arguments which are often made

00:06:16.900 in the US

00:06:17.400 about illegal immigrants

00:06:18.460 doing jobs no one wants to

00:06:19.780 are patently absurd.

00:06:21.660 Many of the people

00:06:22.520 who are desperate

00:06:23.220 to do those jobs

00:06:24.480 are waiting patiently

00:06:25.880 for their visa application

00:06:27.100 to be approved.

00:06:27.880 And the only reason people

00:06:29.720 enter the US illegally

00:06:31.200 is that they know

00:06:32.400 they won't be allowed in legally.

00:06:34.600 In other words,

00:06:35.500 illegal immigration

00:06:36.320 is not beneficial

00:06:37.620 to a country by definition.

00:06:39.620 As for legal immigration,

00:06:41.020 once you accept

00:06:41.740 that the quantity

00:06:42.480 and type of people

00:06:43.360 allowed to come

00:06:44.200 should depend on

00:06:45.240 how beneficial

00:06:45.880 they're likely to be

00:06:46.860 to our country

00:06:47.740 given the current circumstances,

00:06:50.320 the argument becomes even simpler.

00:06:52.040 After decades

00:06:52.720 of unprecedented levels

00:06:53.960 of immigration,

00:06:55.040 it is time to pause.

00:06:56.740 Notice that you've heard

00:06:57.820 all these arguments before.

00:06:59.500 But in the new frame,

00:07:00.780 they land differently.

00:07:02.320 We're not against immigration.

00:07:04.360 We do not hate immigrants.

00:07:06.020 We in fact

00:07:06.640 envisage circumstances

00:07:07.860 in which we may well

00:07:09.160 be delighted

00:07:09.780 to welcome more people

00:07:10.720 to come here.

00:07:11.640 I'm proud that Britain

00:07:12.660 has offered refuge

00:07:13.500 to people fleeing

00:07:14.240 Chinese tyranny in Hong Kong

00:07:15.700 and the Russian invasion

00:07:16.960 of Ukraine.

00:07:17.900 What we're for

00:07:18.800 is a sensible immigration policy,

00:07:21.180 one that fits

00:07:22.060 the realities

00:07:22.720 of the present time.

00:07:24.660 If you enjoy

00:07:25.560 these monologues,

00:07:26.320 remember that they're

00:07:27.040 available on my substack

00:07:28.640 weeks,

00:07:29.560 sometimes months

00:07:30.280 ahead of time.

00:07:31.000 So click the link

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TRIGGERnometry - September 19, 2024

Why We Keep Losing the Immigration Debate - Konstantin Kisin

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