True Patriot Love - Alberta Separation： Could It Actually Happen？

00:00:00.000 well there's a lot of talk about separation in alberta i mean there's a lot of challenges before

00:00:11.400 we should even really be talking about separation alberta i jotted this down and i'll repeat it

00:00:16.400 and read on at the end of the show but my first thoughts on this were alberta separation is an

00:00:21.600 expensive legal and economic mirage to talk more about this our very own paul micucci thanks paul

00:00:27.880 hey mike how are you doing i'm good you know this is uh it's interesting paul we have this discussion

00:00:33.080 about separation every three or four weeks it seems this is going on and on since we started

00:00:38.520 uh by the numbers 222 597 people said stay free alberta uh the separatist petition cleared 177

00:00:48.040 732 uh on the threshold but that approval was quashed in may uh based under uh treaty seven

00:00:57.000 an eight constitution uh consultation and the counting was later allowed further steps await

00:01:02.760 the appeal so now this is still in the appeal process to see if there is enough people even to

00:01:08.120 say yes we can ask the question yeah well it's been delayed or well it's not delayed it's moving

00:01:14.760 forward even though it's still under appeal so it could potentially get across the finish line

00:01:19.800 and then be pulled back yeah yeah uh which is interesting that in fact so much goes into this

00:01:27.900 am i wrong but paul it just seems like all we want to do is talk about this daniel smith is

00:01:32.480 on tv crying that she'll stay canadian uh of course you know but it's and she doesn't have

00:01:38.840 a great cry face so by the way yeah when some people cry it's like their whole face kind of

00:01:43.200 sucks in their face that's me so that is me i have to admit to that the whole face goes in

00:01:48.020 yeah no not a great cry face so but it is a weird feeling because this seemed to be part of her

00:01:54.980 platform a little bit you know alberta proud alberta can do this alberta can be on its own it

00:02:00.640 can be part of the economy in the world without being tied to canada and by the way we shouldn't

00:02:05.260 be paying for all of this and getting nothing in transfer yeah okay pretty much but that doesn't

00:02:11.400 mean separation does it really well so i went i it's interesting mike i went back before the show

00:02:17.860 and i i really took a look and i said okay referendums so and i tried to think of interio

00:02:23.380 when the last referendum was when was the last referendum well the one that i remember and i

00:02:28.820 could i could find was the 2007 electoral reform referendum where basically dalton mcginty um bob

00:02:37.380 ray and mike harris had actually uh remained in control the government with less than 50 of the

00:02:43.380 popular vote so he actually went forward and tried to actually have that changed so that was the last

00:02:49.300 referendum i remember don't recall that at all right so it's not a you know we're not totally

00:02:54.500 familiar americans are more familiar with referendums than we are right because canadians

00:02:58.820 we're not a big referendum group we know it's it's a big word for us right it is you know in

00:03:03.780 parliamentary politics you don't see a lot of referendums quite frankly so but in the u.s

00:03:08.980 there's referendums everywhere so quite frankly when you you get to election time in the u.s

00:03:14.100 you're driving down the street and there'll be billboards you know vote for weed uh vote for uh

00:03:20.100 you know deregulation of blah blah blah um you know gaming whatever there's all kinds of

00:03:27.060 referendums that take place on an electoral period so you're always inundated with ideas

00:03:32.020 that are on the referendum ballot to move forward enjoying the conversation on tpl

00:03:36.820 well sign up for our free news update and get a tailored email with the stories topics and shows

00:03:41.700 that matter most to you fresh conversations delivered right to your inbox visit tplmedia.ca

00:03:47.260 and sign up today so making constitutional change altering slightly okay and i think that that's a

00:03:55.840 good that's a great thing to be built into our democracy right well it is and it isn't and it's

00:04:02.380 interesting in this case you know october 19th is fast approaching and for those the people that

00:04:07.780 haven't kept track so i just want to kind of bring them up to speed on where they're at they're going

00:04:12.820 to be asking 10 questions so 10 referendum questions so number 10 is the pivotal one that's

00:04:18.300 the yes or no about um separatism but you know it's interesting i went through and i reminded

00:04:23.880 myself before the show um questions one to five asks for direction on provincial policy right so

00:04:31.140 let me go through so just an example because i thought this was interesting for people because

00:04:35.900 how much um the province is really pivoting and changing from the direction of of the rest of

00:04:43.560 canada and things they're talking about that we're not talking about across the nation that's kind of

00:04:49.120 true yeah it does highlight though a bit of a spotlight on what should be many canadians concerns

00:04:55.120 actually yeah so uh questions on one to five or questions one to five on direction on provincial

00:05:02.260 policy and the referendum questions do you support the government of alberta taking increased control

00:05:07.720 over immigration for the purpose of decreasing immigration to more substantial sustainable

00:05:14.020 levels prioritizing economic migration and providing alberta's first priority on new

00:05:21.160 employment opportunities it's a good question yeah so it's an immigration question and they

00:05:28.280 really want priority to people who live there as far as employment can we pause on that first one

00:05:33.820 sure boy i wonder how people feel now compared to when that question was first asked as all we hear

00:05:41.120 in the news in the last couple of weeks is our immigration numbers are going to have serious

00:05:44.720 impact on our future as a country because now we've sent everybody home or we're sending everybody

00:05:51.040 be home mass uh exodus means that we're going to be left a pretty large void in in canada well

00:05:58.840 it's interesting so i wonder if they've changed their opinion on having even asked that question

00:06:02.820 yeah well it's interesting because in atlantic canada uh there was a court case the civil case

00:06:08.640 that came up with a bankruptcy recently where the gentleman closed five tim hortons uh citing the

00:06:15.080 change in immigration policy as the key factor that closed his business right so and whether

00:06:20.080 that's true or not i don't know but quite frankly if it is true it shows you know the the change

00:06:25.840 since this question was actually put forward well yeah if it is true we're going to see more of it

00:06:29.760 yeah question two do you support the government of alberta introducing a law mandating that only

00:06:34.960 canadian citizens permanent residents and individuals with an alberta approved

00:06:39.840 immigration status will be eligible for provincially funded programs such as

00:06:43.760 healthcare education and other social services good question again yeah it's well it's a very

00:06:52.240 interesting question um but different than what the different question than what the rest of

00:06:57.200 canada is asking that's up for grabs on so that's a policy you see that feels a harsh question that

00:07:02.800 really needs to be asked you know okay well look if you don't agree with it now let's find out

00:07:08.640 Yeah.

00:07:09.300 Oh, yeah.

00:07:09.920 But, you know, from there, so this is a direction on provincial policy.

00:07:14.020 So then once, if this, say the whole population votes yes,

00:07:20.360 that a law mandates, you know, not providing services to these people,

00:07:24.900 they'll pass a law.

00:07:26.040 So it gives them direction to move forward to pass a law.

00:07:28.660 So they have.

00:07:29.380 Which means a huge number of people that wouldn't qualify for that

00:07:32.120 are suddenly going to leave Alberta.

00:07:33.780 Yeah.

00:07:34.400 Yeah.

00:07:34.600 Which changes their employment, their jobs, everything.

00:07:39.060 Or other accommodations are going to have to be made at a private level

00:07:42.620 for these people to keep them in the province by their employer.

00:07:45.440 Yep.

00:07:46.500 So number three, assuming that all Canadian citizens

00:07:49.360 and permanent residents continue to qualify for social support programs

00:07:53.120 as they do now, these support the government of Alberta

00:07:55.620 introducing a law requiring all individuals

00:07:57.840 with non-permanent legal immigration status

00:08:00.420 to reside in Alberta for at least 12 months

00:08:03.240 before qualifying for provincially funded social support programs well that's a mouthful yeah it

00:08:10.600 almost sounds like okay well if you don't agree with the first how about the second yeah so if

00:08:14.520 you don't exactly the second is uh you get your programs after 12 months so you have to be here

00:08:19.320 you have to stay for 12 and then you get into the programs okay so that's an adaptation of

00:08:24.760 the last question yeah okay again this is again a provincial policy if if it votes that way they'll

00:08:32.200 changed the provincial laws uh number four assuming that all consensus assuming that all

00:08:38.520 canadian citizens and permanent residents continue to qualify for the public health care and education

00:08:43.400 as they do now do you support the government alberta changing a reasonable charging a reasonable fee

00:08:48.840 or premium to individuals with a non-permanent immigration status living in alberta for their

00:08:54.520 and their families use of the recreational and educational systems so now by the time you get

00:08:59.800 get to that question paul it's like so how much okay you said no to the you said okay to the first

00:09:05.080 two but but let me just ask you one more time yeah that's what it feels like they're hammering

00:09:10.420 it home yeah yeah you you don't want to take it all away from them you don't want to suspend it

00:09:15.620 for 12 months and then now if you don't want to do either one of those why don't we put a fee on

00:09:20.800 it why couldn't they make this a multiple choice question i don't know yes or no uh number five

00:09:26.840 the last one on government public policy do you support the government alberta introducing a law

00:09:31.000 requiring individuals to provide proof of citizenship such as passport birth certificate

00:09:36.680 and citizenship card to vote in an alberta provincial election i always thought they did

00:09:44.200 i thought so too yeah that one's an interesting one i guess i will have to dig into that it must

00:09:47.880 have been yeah there must have been a problem a very very small number of issues around this that

00:09:53.720 we don't know too much about but obviously it ended up on there because of something yeah that's

00:09:58.920 very that question definitely is very american style really yeah the way it's asked number six

00:10:05.240 mike so this isn't do you now these ones okay before i get into it six to nine asks whether

00:10:11.400 the alberta should work with other provinces to reform the canadian constitution so these are

00:10:16.760 canadian constitution changes so which is interesting uh number six do you support the

00:10:22.280 government of alberta working with the governments of other willing provinces to amend the canadian

00:10:27.960 constitution to have provincial governments and not the federal government select the justices

00:10:33.800 appointed to the provincial king's bench and appeal courts that has been a be in the bonnet

00:10:39.720 of alberta for some time yeah that there is a disproportionate amount of judges selected that

00:10:45.640 would be sensible they feel in that province um and at the federal level they feel missed i think

00:10:53.560 uh on that front and that that comes up you know danielle smith has said this several times we've

00:10:58.920 heard this uh you know from legal pundits in other provinces saying look there's an unweighted uh

00:11:05.640 representation of law here in this country and so we need to have some more input i think that

00:11:10.920 probably other provinces will jump on this yeah well i'm curious to see who so who they'll get on

00:11:16.760 board quickly um they have a little more leverage now that they you know the oil uh issues and

00:11:22.200 things they have i think you'll find it's east coast like real resource based yeah provinces

00:11:27.160 yeah they do and they're probably in this one i assume they're going to vote yes i assume this

00:11:31.000 one's going to be a majority i would imagine and then number seven do you support the government

00:11:35.200 alberta working with the governments of other willing provinces to amend the canadian constitution

00:11:39.900 to abolish the unelected federal senate they're gonna vote yes yes but i mean it's it's not a

00:11:48.200 reality no no it's not but they're gonna vote it just to just show their unity i think so i think

00:11:54.300 they're gonna probably get 60 or 70 percent people yeah that is that that's a that's a uh a scream

00:12:00.260 for justice more than it is a reality yeah yeah um number eight do you support the government

00:12:07.440 Albert working with the governments of other willing provinces to amend the

00:12:11.000 Canadian constitution to allow provinces to opt out of the federal programs

00:12:15.260 that intrude on the provincial jurisdictions,

00:12:18.220 such as healthcare, education, social services,

00:12:21.440 without a province losing any of the associated federal funding for use in

00:12:27.440 its social programs.

00:12:29.860 Yeah. Okay. So this basically Carney is taken care of anyway.

00:12:33.980 If you think about it in many ways,

00:12:35.960 A lot of these programs are being altered already so that they don't weigh so heavily on one province or the other.

00:12:41.880 It's almost like this one's been heard recently, and they're starting to get an answer to this call.

00:12:47.080 However, not surprised that it's on that questionnaire, to be honest with you.

00:12:52.020 It might be one of the ones that's cut.

00:12:54.380 Yeah.

00:12:55.060 Well, this is interesting, Mike.

00:12:56.360 So, you know, we've been going, you know, this, I'll do nine, and then I'll come back before 10.

00:13:00.600 Do you support the government of Alberta working with the governments of other willing provinces to amend the Canadian Constitution to better protect provincial rights from federal interference by giving provinces laws dealing with the provincial or shared areas of constitutional jurisdiction priority over federal laws when the province laws and federal laws conflict?

00:13:23.140 That is a very difficult one.

00:13:24.960 However, I think many provinces are working toward that as well.

00:13:28.660 That, you know, every time the federal government downloads something of the court system, anything to do with justice in this country, it starts to fall apart.

00:13:39.420 I mean, we're seeing that with bail reform.

00:13:42.120 Right.

00:13:42.220 you know as soon as it gets downloaded there needs to be some network of communication some

00:13:48.780 network of understanding coast to coast so that provincially this doesn't alter itself depending

00:13:53.740 on where you are yeah you know so i can imagine that being it that actually sounds like a reasonable

00:13:58.700 request so the interesting thing mike then this is why i brought it up in the way i kind of read

00:14:03.100 it off so if i'm at the box the ballot box the referendum filling this out and i'm starting to

00:14:09.340 fill it out and i'm now probably if i'm thinking how people will mark this ballot or mark this off

00:14:17.900 i'm thinking you probably out of nine questions you probably have six or seven of them they voted

00:14:24.700 yes to well this is this is one of those that this is called a lead-in right paul i mean what

00:14:30.460 you want to do is get people in the habit of saying yes i'm in agreement this sounds like

00:14:34.220 we're going in the right direction yes all right all right all right oh my god i'm at number nine

00:14:38.140 10 i'm just going to say yes to 10 okay where are we with the really important questions on the list

00:14:44.660 exactly and how far have we built momentum by that that point on the list so i mentioned to

00:14:49.560 you in america they do a lot of referendums and it's very interesting because they fight

00:14:53.720 tooth and nail on where on the ballot they sit how they're worded where they go everything so

00:15:00.900 like i've been through a few of these and while i was in the u.s um from the lobbying legislative

00:15:07.300 perspective and it's a dog fight to get the question you want where you want it kind of when

00:15:13.560 you want it so right because you have to get the voter in the you want the voter in a positive mood

00:15:18.520 you don't want them you know you don't want to be sitting uh honestly you don't want to be sitting

00:15:22.280 behind the abortion uh question or sitting you know in front of the or behind the weed question

00:15:28.400 there's certain questions you don't want to be because right you know half the it's a mixed

00:15:32.900 answer and quite frankly you're you're likely to get the same outcome also days before the

00:15:37.560 referendum all of these points are going to be fought by other factions out there that are trying

00:15:42.760 to convince the the public on each of these points you know don't be distracted be careful

00:15:48.620 don't be distracted be careful yeah but yeah that's what it felt like it felt like you were

00:15:52.400 leading me to the sale uh yes i agree with that true yes i'm also with that one that sounds

00:15:58.840 reasonable okay i think i'm in with this whole document now last one so this is the independence

00:16:04.120 question asks whether alberta should begin the legal process towards a binding referendum on

00:16:09.820 separation so last number 10 should alberta remain a province of canada or should the government of

00:16:16.860 alberta commence the legal process required under the canadian constitution to hold a binding

00:16:22.260 provincial referendum on whether or not alberta should separate from canada so that's the zinger

00:16:28.480 at the end so again you know you have all these people they're answering all these questions

00:16:33.260 they're probably going to answer the majority of them yes and then you get to the final question

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00:16:54.000 so mike what happens the day after if the second option wins so if this we're talking about

00:17:02.780 question 10 here now so i kind of dug into it because this is really technical and i i you know

00:17:08.380 i have to say i didn't pay a lot of attention to this for most of this discussion until now

00:17:14.860 because october 19th is so uh close and it's coming up so uh so the cabinet orders say that

00:17:23.760 the results are not binding right but smith has said she treats 50 plus one as a majority and will

00:17:31.840 respect the result so if the first option wins nothing changes in law if the second option wins

00:17:38.780 the government is asked to start the legal process for a second binding referendum so and so then in

00:17:46.140 mid-august when we talked about this with our guys from alberta uh smith had said that the vote would

00:17:53.100 need to happen in the spring of 2027 on august 27th she said that she was having a problem with

00:18:01.960 the timing and you can't hold a referendum within a year of a general election and alberta's next

00:18:07.920 general election which i just talked about on another show is on october 18th 27th so she had

00:18:13.460 to go now beyond that path that runs through the federal law so in the 1998 succession reference

00:18:20.980 the Supreme Court held that no province can leave unilaterally.

00:18:24.880 Right.

00:18:25.060 So we talked about this a few times, which is very interesting.

00:18:28.520 So a clear majority on a clear question would oblige the rest of Canada

00:18:34.260 to negotiate, but the vote would have no legal effect of its own.

00:18:39.300 The Clarity Act of 2000 gives the House of Commons 30 days

00:18:43.200 to decide whether a succession question is clear.

00:18:47.440 After a vote, the House decides whether the majority is clear

00:18:50.960 weighting its size and turnout without both findings ottawa cannot negotiate succession

00:18:57.060 itself would need a constitutional amendment negotiated with every province covering assets

00:19:03.660 debts borders aboriginal peoples rights and claims and minority rights so

00:19:09.580 you know that's the challenge so there's a long road ahead of this and you know we remember in 21

00:19:16.680 the albertans voted 61.5 to remove equalization from the constitution on a 38.7 turnout to vote

00:19:26.760 and no amendment happened you know paul it's interesting because uh i sat and thought about

00:19:33.320 this what does this represent in the way of challenge and if 100 of the challenge is the pie

00:19:41.720 what are the slices of each of the individual challenges and what do they represent now

00:19:47.400 science science okay it's not science this was my own estimation of what the pie looks like

00:19:54.600 nick if you want to show you can but this is uh what i call a mike's wacky pie before you even

00:20:01.800 get to that constitutional warfare through that or arduous process of making this constitutional

00:20:08.760 change that involves so many layers of government across the country your number one problem the

00:20:17.700 number one challenge is going to be the indigenous rights to land there inside of alberta yes uh you

00:20:26.000 know most of alberta's land is governed by treaties six seven and eight signed with the crown uh so

00:20:32.680 first nation leaders have stated that they're not going to join the separate separatist movement so

00:20:37.080 So, no, I'm sorry, but it kind of ends there.

00:20:40.100 But if that wasn't enough, yeah, 25% of this pie is represented by how do we actually make this happen constitutionally,

00:20:46.480 which is, you know, avonally triggers an obligation to negotiate with Ottawa.

00:20:52.520 Ottawa can choose not to negotiate, and the rest of the provinces can back that.

00:20:57.320 And then the other one is landlocked isolation.

00:21:00.040 Okay, so really, Alberta, you've got to think about this.

00:21:02.840 aside from potential pipelines

00:21:06.140 you have to do treaties and deals

00:21:10.960 and tariff arrangements within this country on top of what's

00:21:15.060 already going on inside of this country and I think that represents

00:21:19.240 another 20% of the pain that this is and then okay as you pointed

00:21:23.160 out we got to settle up guys what's your currency going to be what's

00:21:27.180 your debt look like how are you going to set up the borders how are you going to

00:21:30.540 And so this, I think, is a battle that is really a discussion of Alberta deserves more.

00:21:40.120 You know, but I don't think Canadians are ready to hear Alberta wants more anymore.

00:21:46.820 But the realities are that it does affect Albertans.

00:21:49.620 When we were out there, the price of a barrel of oil determined who got to go on vacation with their kids that summer and who did not.

00:21:58.340 The price of a barrel of oil is determined by world markets

00:22:02.500 and output control that we don't have any say in

00:22:06.780 that really needs to be better represented for Alberta.

00:22:09.660 And I think maybe Carney is starting to see this

00:22:13.700 as a negotiation with Ottawa, a negotiation with him

00:22:18.420 to say, what can we do to even things out for Alberta?

00:22:22.420 They don't want the transfer payment deficit anymore.

00:22:28.140 They don't want to be disregarded anymore.

00:22:30.940 They're landlocked, and they're kind of stuck in the middle, if it were.

00:22:38.940 And they have a huge resource that is important to our country.

00:22:42.600 This is a cry for help.

00:22:45.180 It is.

00:22:45.520 It is, Mike.

00:22:46.100 And he showed up a couple weeks ago.

00:22:48.600 He showed up and said, listen, we're on board.

00:22:51.500 we're going to do the pacific pipeline yeah um the link and we're going to get it done so don't

00:22:57.100 worry you know it's it's it's a little late so we're going to talk about that on another show

00:23:01.580 yeah i mean it's it's late to the party quite frankly it is a you know he just he hasn't been

00:23:07.260 in that long so he's making a valiant effort to catch up to where they should have been

00:23:11.340 10 years ago and where canada should have been 10 years ago you know it's a little disingenuous

00:23:16.460 because quite frankly um under the in the true joe era you know everyone was going electric you

00:23:21.580 were telling we were telling people not to reinvest in oil um you know you got to start looking at

00:23:27.180 your future it's not there um all this happens in the strait of her moose and everything going on

00:23:32.620 and now we're back saying okay we love you and by the way we're going to give you a pacific link

00:23:38.060 pipeline which is great quite frankly it's great uh because they're finally doing it is it going to

00:23:44.140 to be too late and by the time they get there in five ten years whenever this thing gets built out

00:23:49.880 um for whatever crazy number of dollars it actually goes out at is it going to matter

00:23:56.200 anymore because you know the geopolitical system in the world will have changed dramatically at

00:24:00.320 that point and it is and so you know i think i think the trust factor is is definitely been

00:24:06.660 tarnished and to get it back is really hard at this point i understand that and but but the

00:24:12.180 options right if you if you read through this and and under our constitution and treaties and

00:24:18.740 everything else it's it's it's almost impossible to happen so you know i understand the hard

00:24:24.980 feelings i understand quebec versus alberta i understand transfer payments i understand

00:24:30.580 you know how they feel based on electrification versus oil and gas i understand all those things

00:24:36.500 all those things and carbon pathways and taxes and all that but uh you know it's a pretty tough

00:24:43.380 pathway forward given what we just read to everyone um now they might get the momentum

00:24:49.220 they might get the yes vote quite frankly they might get to the next round um but then to get

00:24:54.340 all the provinces on side get that figured out it's going to be tough to happen the more that

00:24:58.900 albertans understand the challenges the less support this seems to get that's the other thing

00:25:03.380 You know, we get, whoa, we get surges of it based on anti-Trump hate, anti-Trump behavior.

00:25:10.660 You know, people are like, oh, you know, more power to the, and that's fantastic.

00:25:15.300 That's momentum we need, but the momentum is pushing against our own government at the same time.

00:25:20.520 So making some of these changes that are, you know, on the books, they're starting now to make appropriation documentation for the land they need for the pipeline.

00:25:30.000 So enough is being done that up against this question, this series of questions, there is enough doubt in people's minds that it could be a bad idea, no matter how leading it is.

00:25:42.200 Off the top, I said Alberta separation is an expensive legal and economic mirage.

00:25:46.460 To achieve it, Albertans endure decades of constitutional warfare, surrender resources, security, and are isolated, and litigate treaties the province doesn't own.

00:26:02.940 So at the moment, it does seem like a mirage, and it's, I think, maybe a little bit expensive to take on.

00:26:12.400 and a lot of effort has been put in there.

00:26:13.900 A huge amount of cheerleading has gone on.

00:26:20.500 People have dedicated their time tirelessly to this cause.

00:26:26.000 But health care, housing, inflation, succession of how to do this,

00:26:31.820 all of this in the balance, it almost remains, in my mind,

00:26:37.980 a waste of paper, the ballot.

00:26:39.380 you know it's interesting mike because you know i don't love polls but polls have been this thing's

00:26:45.600 been pulled to death yeah it's true for the last year yeah public polls since may have put the

00:26:50.620 second option which is you know no um between 19 and 35 percent janet brown had it at 23 down from

00:26:58.880 27 in april ipsis had 70 remaining and 20 for the second option yeah angus reed had it at 61 33 with

00:27:09.060 40 percent of the second option saying they were sending ottawa a message alberta is uh planning a

00:27:16.420 85 turnout and the provincial record is 81.8 so so you know they might get a mass wow they're

00:27:25.040 expecting 85 turnout yeah i think you know will that will there be a message sent here i think

00:27:31.400 it will i think there's enough things on this referendum this 10 point referendum that you're

00:27:35.820 going to get 85 because whether you you know don't want separation but you want to clean up the

00:27:41.200 immigration system whether you want to there's a bunch of stuff here that i think people will come

00:27:45.440 out for for different reasons because you have the 10 issues remember i the reason i started with

00:27:50.840 what i can remember the last referendum in ontario was which is relatively a simple referendum right

00:27:56.400 it's a it was an election uh change really it's the way people vote so not an easy one but quite

00:28:03.100 frankly it wasn't 10 questions that pivotally changed the way you treated other citizens

00:28:07.660 in the in the province this was this was only about the election process it was more of a

00:28:13.680 policy decision right this changes the mood and shift of the whole country or the whole province

00:28:19.280 and quite frankly small business owners are hugely affected by think about anyone you can think that

00:28:25.280 employs people in the province of alberta is coming out so you know and probably thinking

00:28:31.200 where does this leave me if all those people go away if they don't get benefits so they're they're

00:28:36.320 not going to want to let this thing uh just be decided on 38.4 of the vote like uh the last

00:28:43.120 referendum they did in 2021 they're going to want to get out there and vote and make sure their

00:28:47.600 voice is heard so again i i think it probably ends up similar to how it polls so i think the polling

00:28:54.000 in this case will be fairly close because i don't think it has uh i think people realize that this

00:28:59.120 is too big a hurdle to to jump through uh or over um but yeah very rarely do you see polls this

00:29:06.160 close together uh on the results as well it's almost it almost feels like the general consensus

00:29:12.880 and like you i'm not a huge poll guy yep uh okay here's my prediction 60 of the vote and a mushy

00:29:19.520 response to this whole thing okay 60 of the vote so 60 turnout yes okay and a mushy and a very

00:29:28.560 spongy mushy response to this many questions because i i think some of this i think that

00:29:34.160 the average canadian would find some of these questions almost appalling and yeah across the

00:29:40.480 nation i think so for sure i think maybe not in alberta i'd be curious to see yeah you know it's

00:29:45.520 interesting i my guess in this one because having you and i spent a little time in calgary and

00:29:51.040 alberta through you were there more than i was through the summer i think the first nine questions

00:29:56.880 that i read out yeah i think you're going to see they're going to they're going to have majority

00:30:02.320 uh some of them will be close but i think they're all yeah they're going to get majority on them for

00:30:06.480 the number of people i think it'll be to your point 60 to 70 turnout so i think you're right

00:30:11.600 there you're going to people turn out to vote um and definitely i think the way it polls on the

00:30:17.680 you know the separation i think it fails um also it doesn't read like a referendum

00:30:22.720 series of questions to me it reads like a survey i'll be honest with you yeah it does it does

00:30:27.360 because there's so many options and pivoting and things in there and quite frankly i think if i

00:30:32.320 would probably if they were do it to do it again the questions five to nine that actually talk

00:30:38.800 about you know giving uh their indicator questions that give the government you know the uh indication

00:30:45.600 that they should move forward to talk to other province about constitutional changes i would

00:30:49.680 would have left those off i think so i think not a great idea whoever wrote that i think they could

00:30:54.140 have i think they could have done that through a survey and just gone and done it as a government

00:30:58.680 i don't think well it felt like an appeal to me to get more people involved in this yeah okay if

00:31:03.480 you don't believe in separate yeah separating them you want the senate do you not want the senate

00:31:07.860 you want changes get in on this whole thing we want you out yeah you want us to be able to make

00:31:11.760 our own laws if there's contradictions with the feds all those things i think you're right mike

00:31:15.680 They got turnout up.

00:31:18.040 I think the 13th to the 17th, the advance polls open in Alberta.

00:31:23.480 October 19th, the actual vote.

00:31:25.000 October 29th, the official results will be reacted to.

00:31:30.300 And we'll be here to talk about that, I think.

00:31:32.680 Hey, last thing before we go, Quebec election today.

00:31:35.320 Oh, yeah.

00:31:35.680 It's going to be interesting.

00:31:36.760 So the Quebec election, it's actually also interesting

00:31:40.180 how the Quebec election is falling on the Monday,

00:31:42.760 and this is coming right after.

00:31:44.400 So we're going to have to keep an eye on that, too,

00:31:46.480 because depending on how the Quebec election goes

00:31:49.220 and the scuttlebutt there,

00:31:50.800 that's going to actually maybe tweak the Albertans a little bit.

00:31:54.100 It might spark a bit of momentum, yeah.

00:31:55.860 Yeah, so if I'm on the separatist side

00:31:58.540 and I see that election go a certain way,

00:32:01.720 I might use that as cannon fodder to actually feed the flames.

00:32:07.060 I actually think that's a really good perspective.

00:32:09.200 We'll see what happens.

00:32:10.380 Yeah, thanks, Mike.

00:32:11.260 Thanks, Paul.

00:32:13.960 You

True Patriot Love - October 08, 2026

Alberta Separation： Could It Actually Happen？

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