Budget 2025： Will Carney’s Plan Trigger an Election？ ｜ TPL Roundtable
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Summary
In this episode, TPL's Nick Dolinsky joins me to talk about the possibility of the government losing confidence in the House of Commons, and what could happen if that happens. We also discuss the history of non-confidence in governments, and why it's not a good thing.
Transcript
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Hi there, thanks for joining us. This very time tomorrow, we'll be sitting at a desk and we'll
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be poring over what the budget means that will be presented in our legislature tomorrow in Ottawa
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by Mark Carney. It's a little late and we're hearing that some belt tightening is going to
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occur and that might lead to a voting down of the budget. Joining me to talk about that today,
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TPL's very own Nick Dolinsky. Nick, thanks so much for joining us.
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You know, you and I have known each other a lot of years and just last week after having sent you
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10,000 emails, I noticed that Nicholas is spelt with a K.
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I want to tell you my embarrassment is mounting just telling you about it.
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Well, the X and S is often mixed up in my name. So there you go.
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Well, look, thanks for joining me to talk about this because it's a pretty interesting point in Canadian
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Yeah, it is. And I, like a lot of Canadians, don't really know the nuts and bolts of this kind of
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stuff and how this actually works and what to expect really.
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Yeah. Well, like you say, many Canadians just let what happens in Parliament happen.
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But for some reason, this budget is really kind of on everybody's mind. I think mainly because it
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Like, it's almost like something we should have seen. We had a liberal government. We have a new
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liberal government. They must have some paperwork they could share with us.
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Yeah. And then, of course, we did a previous episode where we were talking about, you know,
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how Mark Carney has traveled the world, essentially doing diplomacy and handing out a lot of money,
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about $10.3 billion to various countries for various reasons. And he came back with one deal
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that we can say is documented with Malaysia. Aside from that, not really much to show for it.
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It seems like the consensus is that's pretty bleak. I don't think anyone's expecting to be blown away
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by this budget. I think everyone is sort of going to be pissed off. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe this will
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usher in the new era of Canadian greatness. But I suspect I'm not as optimistic.
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I don't think many people are optimistic at all, actually. I think that just hearing that we're going
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to have major infrastructure projects and, you know, at a time where we've lost so much industry
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has just already vacated Canada, that this budget, it means something to Canadians. Okay,
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so here's what I did. I took some notes. I wanted to be diligent about this to make sure that I
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explained the process properly. Okay, so if the budget's defeated, it means that the government
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has lost confidence of the House. Okay. And at that moment, the Prime Minister, he has to make a
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choice. Either resign and let somebody else try to form a government. Oh, that's pretty heavy,
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huh? Yeah. Or to let the Governor General, you know, he approaches the Governor General and asks
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for an election. And almost always that means Canadians head to the polls because the Governor
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General usually says, yeah, okay, go ahead and have an election. And nobody in this country wants
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another election. Good point. Didn't we just do this so many times under the wrong circumstances?
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Yeah, it seems like this is a pretty, these elections are not very popular.
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So here's what happens at that moment. Parliament stops. Remember we prorogued a government not so
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long ago? Yeah. We would be doing that again. So, you know, the government shifts into caretaker mode
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and campaigning begins all over again. So nothing really happens. So here's the situation we're in.
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We're going to get a budget and we almost have to go with it or we stop everything at a crucial point
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in trade negotiations with the U.S. and go have an election. Yeah. And that's really not what we want
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right now. We really want to see movement in this country in some regard. Okay. So here's the other
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thing that I did. And, you know, maybe after the fact, we can graphic some of these. I thought to
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myself, okay, what non-confidence votes have we had in the history of Canada? And it's an interesting
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lineup, actually. 1926, Mackenzie King's government lost a confidence over a corruption scandal
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and the governor general refused dissolution. And it led to an election that King later won. So he
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came back on that. Were you around then? Yeah, that's very nice, Nick. 1963, John Diefenbaker's
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government lost confidence after disputes over nuclear weapons. An election was called and Lester B.
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Pearson took over with the liberals. Now, here's the one that caught my attention. In 1974,
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Pierre Trudeau had his budget defeated and Trudeau called an election. And guess what he did?
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He had a minority government and he won the majority for the liberals. Okay. So it was sort of a reverse
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card. He actually, uh, yeah. And in fact, that's the scenario we're in right now. We have a minority
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liberal government. If we call a non-confidence vote, you know, conservatives could lose or the block
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really, who are the two going concerns, could lose seats and we end up with a majority government.
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Okay. So this, this is, you think this is the most likely scenario that this would actually help,
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this non-confidence would actually help the, uh, the liberals?
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Well, there's a lot of discussion about this. I mean, first of all, will the block have a role in
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this? If there's a non-confidence vote, will they vote non-confidence? I mean, they've got a good
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stronghold right now. They've got a good voice in Quebec at the moment. They might like to run the
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And then conservatives, you think, okay, this is their chance to go grab a bunch of seats
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and maybe flip the government. Not too likely in most of the ridings where they need the support,
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they still don't have it. Okay. There's, there's still too weak to be really going into an election.
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Well, they do great in the West, but in key markets in Ontario and Quebec and places like that,
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no, they would still have a really difficult time. It would seem, I mean, who knows what would happen.
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Um, and then the other thing is, well, let's look at the NDP. They're already starting to give
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indication that they will abstain from the vote altogether, which makes me absolutely crazy.
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I think it makes a lot of it because it feels cowardly. It feels like they they're doing nothing.
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Absolutely. And, and really at a moment where they need to be representing their constituents and,
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and showing government that they mean business, if that's what they want to do,
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they're going to sit there quietly because they don't know which, uh, you know, which side of the
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Okay. So if, if, uh, say, uh, abstaining was not allowed, how would they vote?
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You would have to ask them. I mean, I, I don't know, but it would be great if they did something.
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Sure. Absolutely. Would, would, would you think that they would side with, well,
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we don't know the budget yet, so we don't know if they would side.
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Well, they're actually talking in the news, uh, earlier today, I saw a clip, um, and their,
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their whole thing is, well, you know, we're going to take the, the budget at face value.
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We haven't seen it. So we don't know. And that, that, that, that, that, that, that,
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they don't seem to have a game plan. You know, that actually feels the same to me with the
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conservatives. If I may be honest with you, right. That if they had to be put into an election
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position at the moment, they'd be better off complaining about the budget than actually taking
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an election on at this moment where they may not have any better strategies.
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They're saying Carney took their plan. So what strategies would they have?
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Yeah. Well, it's, it seems like, um, well, this is the major complaint from, you know,
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a lot of sort of typical liberals, uh, people like my parents and things like this, um, that
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the conservatives have not really presented any kind of plan or any kind of, they've presented
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problems, but not solutions. Right. This is the big, this is the big criticism. I think it's pretty
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common is that they just, Paul Yev just seems to have a platform of complaining and he gets
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a lot of support from that because people are, people are not happy with the current state
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of affairs. So a lot of people side with them, but you know, there's just this, this other
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chunk of the population going, okay, well, what have you done for me lately, Paul Yev?
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What, what's your, what's your solution to this? I think as we got less information about what their
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plan would be in that last election, that's where they started to lose. I mean, the polls for so long
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showed that Paul Yev, I think the Trudeau hating was driving those polls, but so many of the, uh,
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illegitimate polls out there. And I say that about many polls, although I think we'll start polling
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right here because people seem to want to tell the truth to us. Sure. Having said that, uh, the polls
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were huge for the conservatives. And as we got closer to that election, it wasn't long before we
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were starting to discover that there wasn't a lot of meat on the bone. Right. And especially in their
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key ridings. What do you think Nick is going to happen if the budget gets voted down? What do you
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feel Canadians, where are Canadians at in their heart about this? I really can't say, but, uh, I,
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I could say that it's, um, well, this whole thing is very dismaying and the whole thing
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is very, um, um, you know, it's, it's so negative right now in terms of, uh, what this budget will
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be in. And there just seems to be no hope in sight, uh, in regards to. What if Carney gave
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you some clues about what was going to be in the budget? How would you feel a little bit
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more relaxed about this? I'm not sure. I mean, I, I'm not, I'm not a big, you know, uh, maybe
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not everyone watching would know this, but I, I'm, I'm, I tend to, I tend to lean towards
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the left of the spectrum, left of, left of the liberals. Yeah. And so for me, you know,
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uh, uh, uh, a liberal budget is probably a lot of, a lot of more, uh, neoliberal policy
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and a lot of status quo kind of stuff that I'm not particularly excited about in general.
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If they start cutting that budget, I wonder if the liberals do lose instantly, uh, lose votes
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out there because so many programs, I mean, I don't know what they're going to do, except
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bureaucracy has to become smaller. That's been on the cutting block. I think assumed anyway,
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since day one, and then it starts to head toward programs and taxation, right?
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Yeah. And I mean, uh, uh, I'm, I'm for programs in general, well, programs could include your
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hospitals and proper care and nutrition, which actually elevate the country.
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Of course, of course. And you know, my, my biggest, my, my biggest complaint, and maybe
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this is off topic is just the w where is the left in Canada in any of this, who is speaking
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for the left in Canada? Uh, we, we have this NDP party, which, uh, I, I don't know what they
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do. Maybe it's cause I'm not, I'm not in tune. I'm not listening to them closely, but there's
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this huge, you know, there's this huge desire for economic, economic populism, you know, around
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the world. And we, we, I just find it very sad that we see stronger leftism in the States
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than we do here. There's, you know, Bernie Sanders, AOC, uh, Zora Mondani getting a lot,
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getting really popular in the States. These seems unstoppable at this point. Where, where
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is the Canadian Bernie Sanders? It's so true. We all seem to be standing close to the middle
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someplace. Yeah. And, and the NDP, you expect to be hanging off the ship on the left so far
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that they can taste saltwater. Right. And, and it doesn't appear that way, or they don't
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have any force of movement. Is this just strategizing? Is it just that this doesn't
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seem like a popular time to bring up, um, say, um, public housing or perhaps holding the grocery
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stores accountable, stop them price fixing and shit like this? Well, I think the budget
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needs to show us some clear action. For example, are we putting shovels in the ground, you know,
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and who's actually holding them accountable? Now, I think, you know, I don't lean far to
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the left, although I don't lean far to the right either. I'm almost one of these people standing
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in the middle with my head spinning, wondering who wants to have an opinion aside from nobody.
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Right. We seem to have zero opinion on what the government is doing. And it seems to be doing
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very little at the moment, to be honest with you. And then on the, on the opposition side of things,
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we don't seem to have a lot of solution makers out there.
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No, no. I, I, I, I seldom see any, um, productive solutions.
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You know, I, I actually feel that if the NDP doesn't take action in government, it's time for
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people to really look at them as a party for real. I don't even know if they should be a party. If
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that's the case, because you go there, abstaining is such a weak stance to take. It shows your
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constituents in a lot of ways that you're just non-conformist, not a solution maker.
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Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Well, it just seems like it's a, it right now, it just seems to be an anti-vote
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Although they don't profess that, I guess that that's their mainstay, right? They're not saying,
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you know, we want to keep conservatives out of power necessarily. They're not saying they want
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to keep liberals in power. They're sitting there and they're going for lunch.
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Yeah. Well, I, but I, I felt this way about the NDP for years now. Well, what have you done for me
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lately? You know, Jagmeet Singh, what did he do? What did he say? Did he even say anything?
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I think so many Canadians even feel that he just hung in there to get a pension.
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Yeah. I think that's a common thread among people because as soon as he got that, he's gone.
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Well, you know, not even really all that present now with the NDP as a supporter.
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Now, if, if the NDP, you know, this is hypothetical, the NDP was disbanded. Would that, would that
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leftist mindset carry over to the liberal party? Would they have to satisfy the left more with
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Or would it create a more libertarian opening out there where on the right people become
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more extreme? And then on the left, uh, there's a gap that needs to be filled. That becomes a new
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Right. And, and it's, it could also be said that, uh, the NDP is sort of, um, splitting the vote a bit
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from, from the liberals. It's actually, they're actually taking votes away, just like the, the
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Green Party in the United States where there was the whole fiasco with Ralph Nader and the 2000
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Yeah. You know, I, I hate to say that. And, and I know, you know, I, I think it's easy to be,
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uh, polarizing in politics, except right now, because none of the parties seem to be, have a
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polar opposite solution. Then again, we have not seen a budget. We have not seen a plan at all from
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this government. And it's been a lot of months, Nick.
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Yeah. Yeah. It just seems like a mystery. And, uh, we, we, we've been waiting with bated breath
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for months now for this budget. And, uh, I don't know. It just feels like a, it's, it's a ticking
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time bomb for, uh, drama, drama, predictions. What gets cut? Hmm. I definitely think bureaucracy
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Oh, of course, of course, of course. And, uh, it seems like immigration's on the, on the chopping
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block. Um, say what, say what you want about that.
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I think we'll be seeing increase in border security expenses and military defense. Cause
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Is this just appeasing Trump? This kind of stuff feels like it feels like a NATO, uh, if
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not Trump, then on the other side, it feels like, um, you know, trying to hold up a NATO
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promise. I wonder if things will be mentioned, like the status of our military and how it needs
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That's, um, you know, cause we have people living in housing right now who are military
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personnel that it is unsuitable for them to be living there. They've dropped, I don't
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know if you know this, do you know the military dropped the health standards to become a serving
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I mean, how, who, I mean, I guess you still have to pass bootcamp or something.
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No. And in fact, if you, if you can't do it, they'll put you into a program to get into
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better fitness, but you will still become a member of the military.
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I mean, if it's, if it means that they have to go to a fitness program, I, I, if, and you
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can't find physically fit people, I'd say, that seems fine to make, to make people fit
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because of, uh, McDonald's and, uh, and sedentary lifestyle, I can see that this is an adjustment
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to, uh, you know, okay, well now we have to actually, uh, uh, put them on, uh, you know,
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So a couple of the notes that I made were that I didn't think the conservatives, uh, they're
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not going to be eager to, for an election because they win big in the West and rural areas, but
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that doesn't guarantee them enough seats in Ontario and Quebec.
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And they also don't want to go too soon and risk being seen as reckless and opportunistic.
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So what you're saying basically is that, you know, aside from the liberal political class,
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there's not really much to be excited about unless you're, again, part of that liberal
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I wonder what happens with this budget though, because if it cuts a bunch of people's programs,
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I think some liberals are going to start to change their tune, to be honest with you.
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Budget day is tomorrow and we hope that you'll be with us.
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So make sure that you're along for that ride on budget 2025, uh, brought to you by the liberal
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It supports the channel and, uh, we want to continue doing this.
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And, uh, you can do that at tplmedia.ca where you'll find all of our content.